Barring any more defections (of which there have been two already — Owen Almighty and Flood Zone, both of whom had earned enough points to qualify), the field is now pretty much set for the 151st Kentucky Derby, to be held on May 3 at Churchill Downs.
When attempting to handicap the race, one of the most important tools has historically been the "Dosage Index" — a mathematical calculation of the ratio of speed to stamina in a horse's pedigree. Another is whether the horse had been among the top performers as a two-year-old — something that was formerly measured with the "Experimental Free Handicap" until it was done away with in 2019.
Even so, it is still possible to, in most cases, determine whether a horse would have been weighted within 10 pounds of the high weight on the EFH, by observing a simple set of criteria: any colt or gelding who, as a two-year-old, won any graded stakes race, finished first or second in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes race, or finished first, second, or third in any Grade 1 stakes race, can be reasonably assumed to have qualified under the old format.
The traditional standard for the Dosage Index is the figure 4.00: only a handful of horses that had a Dosage Index of higher than that have won the race dating all the way back to 1929. It is also helpful if the horse had at least some Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in his Dosage Profile (these are the last two numbers).
Below are each 2025 Derby contender's Dosage Profile, Dosage Index, and whether or not the horse had the minimum stakes credentials as a two-year-old, as described above, ranked in order of their suitability for the mile-and-a-quarter distance of the Derby:
Note that only one horse on the entire list — East Avenue — is a "triple qualifier," in that he has a Dosage Index that does not exceed 4.00, has at least some Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in his Dosage Profile, and last October 5 he won the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland.
And the Daily Racing Form is projecting odds of 20-1!
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