There's only three more Saturdays of football remaining until the first Selection Sunday of the expanded playoff era in college football. To me, two things are absolutely certain about the first picking of teams for the 12-team playoff.
First, there will be controversy. It won't reach anywhere near the level of last year with Alabama and Texas leapfrogging an undefeated conference champion Florida State (more on that team later), but with a one-loss Big Ten log jam likely in the top 10, a gaggle of SEC teams in the mix, the seeding question of ranking the five best conference champions, and on-campus games in the playoffs for the Nos. 5 to 8 seeds, there's sure to be a few teams feeling aggrieved on December 8.
Second, we'll almost certainly be seeing some schools in the playoff who never got a bid during the four-team era. That covers powerful programs like Penn State, Miami, and Tennessee, stunning upstarts like Indiana, and teams like SMU and BYU who were in much different conference positions at the start of the playoff era.
With that group in mind, I wanted to take a look back at a few teams in the 2014-23 four-team College Football Playoff era who would have made a 12-team playoff under the current criteria but fell short of being picked as one of the four best teams that season.
I'll pick one team from each power conference, a Pac-12 team of yore, and a Group of 5 team.
ACC: 2023 Florida State
We begin with a team that only played its last game this calendar year. But this was the only rational pick in an ACC that was conquered by Clemson seven times in the 10 four-team CFP seasons.
There's no point in re-litigating what happened to FSU last December, but what's happened to the Seminoles this season has been stunning and basically has no parallel in modern college football history. Jordan Travis' injury last November in a buy-game blowout against North Alabama could go down as one of the more consequential sliding-doors moments in program and conference history.
Big Ten: 2018 Ohio State
This Ohio State team was the last Big Ten champion not to make the CFP — an "honor" that probably won't be equaled as long as a playoff exists. And when I look back at Ohio State's results in the Urban Meyer years and early Ryan Day era I ask myself, "How the heck did these guys only win one CFP?"
This team, led by Dwayne Haskins (RIP), and his 50 passing touchdowns and nearly 5,000 yards, beat all six teams they faced who were ranked at the time of the game. Yet somehow, the Buckeyes' one loss was a 49-20 trashing at the hands of 6-7 Purdue. In the four-team era, this was ultimately a disqualifying defeat in a year where Clemson, Alabama, and Notre Dame all had undefeated regular seasons. Had the current playoff been in place, Ohio State would be hosting a playoff game in the third week of December as a No. 6 seed.
Big 12: 2014 TCU
Hot take: this TCU team — and not the one that made the 2022 CFP National Championship Game — was the best team in modern Horned Frogs history. During the height of Big 12 Air Raid fever, TCU never scored less than 30 points in a contest. The Frogs' one loss came at Baylor by a field goal in a four-hour-plus game that no one watching live will probably ever forget.
That game — and Baylor and TCU finishing No. 5 and 6 in the final CFP rankings that year — was so significant that it caused the Big 12, which was then a 10-team round robin league, to re-add a conference championship game.
If dual-threat QB Trevone Boykin and TCU had a conference championship rematch against Baylor that year, I think they would have knocked eventual national champion Ohio State out of the playoff with a Big 12 title.
Pac-12: 2020 Oregon
As long as you have a soul and aren't a corporate shill, you probably miss the Pac-12. I certainly do. Imagine if, in 2024, we could be staring down the prospect of an Oregon-Colorado conference championship game in a couple weeks.
But one of the big reasons why the conference disintegrated as a Power 5 league was that it wasn't producing elite teams on a regular basis. After Jake Browning and Washington got to the playoff in 2016, there was a seven-year playoff drought for the league.
So, I'm picking a bit of a perverse option here — Oregon winning the conference during the COVID-shortened 2020 season with a 4-2 record. Had the 2024 playoff system been in place during the pandemic, No. 25 Oregon would be the No. 12 seed, facing 10-1 Notre Dame.
What's worse is that the Ducks would have spiked No. 12-ranked Coastal Carolina from the playoff, as the G5 playoff bid would be grabbed by Cincinnati, then of the AAC. In the 12-team era, I'm thinking there will be a year or two where a "bid stealer" snatches an especially weak Power 4 league at the expense of a G5 team in the top 12.
SEC: 2014 Mississippi State
Our second entry from 2014! That first edition of the playoff was so, so good. It gave us a Florida State meltdown in the second-half of the Rose Bowl in the evening and Zeke Elliott running wild on Alabama in the Sugar Bowl at night in an instant classic.
But anyway, Mississippi State from 2014 reminds me a lot of this year's Indiana team — a hungry bunch with a great QB and an underappreciated head coach having the best season in school history. The Bulldogs are also the answer to a fun trivia question, "What school was No. 1 in the inaugural College Football Playoff rankings?"
Everyone remembers Dak Prescott on this team as a junior, and deservedly so. But he's not the best NFL player on this team — because Chris Jones of the Chiefs was a sophomore on this squad. In fact, 10 years later, four players from this Mississippi State defense are still on NFL rosters.
Had the 2024 rules been in place a decade ago, Mississippi State would have been a No. 7 seed, hosting Rich Rodriguez' best Arizona team.
Group of 5: 2017 UCF
Is it fair to say that there wouldn't be a Group of 5 auto-bid in the new playoff without this team? I think that's safe to say — and perhaps with an assist from Cincinnati in 2021 and Boise State in 2006.
What I respected the most about this crew — and UCF fans writ large — was their ability to cling to a national championship from the Colley Matrix, even when the playoff was supposed to halt all this split-title nonsense. It's almost like a small championship tournament that excluded 60% of FBS on day 1 wasn't demonstrably better than the Bowl Alliance or BCS! That said, no one believes this team could have beaten Alabama or Georgia in the title game — and that's quite alright, because McKenzie Milton and Co. beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl.
As we prepare to enter the era of the 12-team College Football Playoff, it's worth reflecting on the teams that missed their shot during the four-team system. From Florida State's heartache last year to the electric offense of 2014 TCU, these teams remind us of the razor-thin margins that defined a decade of playoff selections. The expansion brings the promise of more opportunities and fewer "what ifs," but it won't erase the spirited debates and controversies that make college football uniquely compelling.
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