They say a big mistake gamblers make is assuming teams on the slide will never win or cover again, and hot teams will never lose or fail to cover again.
I find that axiom to be most true when a losing or winning streak is still young — say, 2 or 3 games. More sustained streaks, however, bear further scrutiny, because sometimes the line setters are a little to slow to adjust to recent trends. That's my guiding principle when I look at this weekend's games. All lines from ESPN Bet.
Houston (+1) at Arizona
Arizona has lost five games in a row, and has failed to cover in all five of them. Three of their last four losses were blowouts. In fact, they have covered the spread just once all year.
Contrast Houston, who has won three of four, both straight up and against the spread. The last one was the most impressive, a 5-point victory over 13-point favorite Kansas State.
You might as well take Houston on the Moneyline, as this game, I promise you, will not end in a tie.
Air Force (+3.5) over Oregon State
Until further notice, Oregon State is an auto-fade. Like Arizona, they have failed to cover the spread in their last five games. Their last loss was an outright loss to San Jose State at home as favorites.
If Oregon State is the equivalent to Arizona in the first game, I can't quite say Air Force is the equivalent to Houston. This is the worst Air Force team in awhile and they are not on a winning streak. Still, they did win outright as underdogs their last time out against Fresno State, and covered their game against Army before that, albeit barely. I still like them in this spot.
Arizona State (+9.5) over Kansas State
There's a lot of parity in the Big 12, so anytime a matchup between two teams with similar conference records (they are both 4-2 in Big 12 play, and 7-2 overall for that matter) draws a spread of more than one score, it catches my eye.
Arizona State was the consensus last-place pick in the Big 12 this year, but they've vastly exceeded expectations, largely behind the running of Cam Skattebo, who for two years now has been electrifying for Arizona State after joining them from FCS Sacramento State. He's already over 1,000 yards rushing and is the team's second leading receiver (in both yards and receptions).
I mentioned Kansas State's hiccup against Houston, and they didn't cover in their win over Kansas before that, but this is still a very good team and I expect them to beat the Sun Devils. I just think it will be a once-score affair.
Enjoy the games, everyone!
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