With both the Panthers and Titans registering victories in Week 8, nine NFL teams now have two wins — which could set up a ding-dong battle that will determine which teams will land the top prizes in the 2025 NFL draft: quarterback Shedeur Sanders of Colorado (son of "Double Hall of Famer" — Pro Football Hall of Fame and College Football Hall of Fame — Deion Sanders) of Colorado, and Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty.
Only once before in NFL history — 2003 — did every team win at least four games (when four teams did: the Chargers, Raiders, Cardinals, and Giants, with the teams picking in that order based on strength of schedule; however, the Chargers then traded Eli Manning, who they had drafted in the first round, to the Giants for their first-round selection, Philip Rivers, plus a third-round pick in 2004 and first- and fifth-round picks in 2005).
The 1956 Eagles finished in sole possession of the NFL's worst record, at 3-8-1, which in percentage terms is also the best record ever for a team that finished worst overall; however, the Eagles did not receive the first overall pick because each of the 12 NFL teams that existed at that time received the top selection as a "bonus pick" beginning with the 1947 draft, and it came down to a coin flip between the Packers and the then-Chicago Cardinals for the bonus pick. The Packers won the coin flip and selected Paul Hornung of Notre Dame.
But this year could be a redux of 2003 — and strength of schedule, once again, could prove to be the deciding factor. Listed below are the current records and strength of schedule for the nine teams with two wins, ranked in draft order at this writing (all 32 NFL teams still have their original first-round pick; and it is interesting — and convenient — to note that there are no 3-6 teams, meaning that there is one-and-a half-game gap between the best of the two-win teams and the rest of the league:
Team................................................W - L.......................................... SOS
1. New England.................................2 - 7........................................... .385
2. Carolina.........................................2 - 7........................................... .468
3. Cleveland ......................................2 - 7.......................................... .474
4. Jacksonville....................................2 - 7.......................................... .500
5. New Orleans..................................2 - 7........................................... .532
6. Las Vegas......................................2 - 7........................................... .545
7. N.Y. Giants.....................................2 - 7........................................... .584
8. Miami.............................................2 - 6........................................... .465
9. Tennessee.....................................2 - 6............................................ .507
SOS = Strength of Schedule
It would be better if the traditional tie-breakers, beginning with head-to-head, were used instead of strength of schedule; that way, in no case could two teams in the same division not draft in the inverse order of their division standing if they had the same record (prior to 1991, a second-place team from a particular division could miss the playoffs while the third-place team from the same division made it).
And the 1970-77 rules could be brought back: if three (or more) teams finished with the same record, head-to-head would be applicable so long as every team involved in the tie had at least one opportunity to play one or more of the others; but, for example, if A, B, and C are tied and C had played neither A nor B, head-to-head cannot be applied — and doubly penalizing a team that played a difficult schedule by knocking them down in the draft order has a lot to be said against it.
With any luck, one of the chronic kvetchers among the owners (the Bidwills of Arizona come readily to mind) will get snookered by the current state of affairs, and demand a change: Several teams demanded that the home-and-away assignments for out-of-division games be changed after they had to play four games on the West Coast while two of their three division rivals played no such games at all; the pairings were changed in 2010.
(Of course the ideal solution is to replace the NFL draft with an NBA-style lottery — but that is the subject for a different column.)
And as the Chiefs close in on both a "three-peat" and a perfect season, the real excitement could be found at the other end of the "table," as they say across the pond, where there will be plenty of "fans" rooting against their own team.
May the worst team win.
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