Another NBA season has tipped off, and there's a little bit of a familiar order to things. The Western Conference is loaded with playoff hopefuls and star players. The East appears to have a clearer favorite — the defending league champion that returns every key player of significance — and a fairly discernable chasing pack.
Like most seasons, there's less than 10 real contenders for the championship. Let's take a look at the tiers of the league as the season tips off.
Capture the Flagg!
Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers, Brooklyn Nets, Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz
Lauri Markkanen on the Jazz and Detroit's starting backcourt are probably the most interesting parts of any of these teams. Like any year where there's a clear, possibly league-changing No. 1 pick available for winning the lottery, we know what's going on here — these teams aren't trying to make it to late April.
Playoffs Possible
Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio Spurs
This section was going to be called "playoffs unlikely," but I can't really say that. If all five of the Eastern Conference teams in the previous category finish between 11 and 15 in the standings, one of the Hornets, Bulls, or Hawks is going to make the playoffs — and all three will make the Play-In Tournament.
Will any of them have over 35 wins? Honestly, one of them will probably get hot during the middle of the season and finish respectably close to .500. Do I have a great guess for who that will be? No.
The two West teams are going in different directions. But I can't rule out Victor Wembanyama turning into an All-NBA player in year two, and I can't rule out James Harden and role players overachieving to an 8-seed, regardless of how much basketball Kawhi Leonard plays.
Probably Not Getting Past Round One
Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans
This category could also be called, "West teams that will all be players for trades." For the Lakers and Warriors, it would be to supplement beloved, championship-winning duos. With the Rockets, it would be to cash in the chips on a relatively deep roster and move up the contention timeline.
The Pelicans are the most obvious team that needs a move in the whole league. It's been clear for about a whole season that Brandon Ingram doesn't fit great with the team and is the one major trade asset New Orleans has, given the recent move for Dejounte Murray, C.J. McCollum's age, and Zion Williamson's injury history.
But would any move on the table vault any of these teams into true Finals or title contention? I don't see the path. Round two looks like a hard ceiling for these four clubs.
Good or Decent Teams with Big Flaws
Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings, Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Phoenix Suns, Philadelphia 76ers
This group has nine teams — almost a third of the league. That's probably a good sign for the state of the NBA. I also regard this motley crew as having title chances if the best player(s) shine, a couple players turn in unexpected career years, projected bench players turn into irreplaceable rotation, and/or great injury luck. In other words, think of last year's Timberwolves. But true contention is probably unlikely.
Let's quickly hit my reasoning for all of these teams being in this category.
* Heat: The weakest team on paper in this list, but I trust Erik Spoelstra and that an impact trade is likely.
* Pacers: Outstanding playoff success last year, and the backcourt will be an offensive juggernaut if healthy. But were they lucky last year? Can they play defense?
* Grizzlies: A possible return to form with a healthy Ja Morant, but the injury trends down the roster are concerning.
* Magic: Might be the most formidable defense in the East, but will need a Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner leap to truly be an offense that can win in the postseason.
* Bucks: Aging starters, but Giannis should be an MVP candidate again. Will a full offseason of Doc Rivers coaching help them guard better?
* Cavaliers: Remind me of the Jazz from a few years ago. Fifty wins are likely, but can get run off the floor with playoff matchups.
* Suns: Difficult exclusion from the contenders category. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker will be great if healthy, and the potential playoff rotation looks stronger than the last two seasons. But I can't quite get there with the defense and Mike Budenholzer's history of playoff stagnance.
* 76ers: They've cobbled together a decent team after Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George. But with Embiid already admitting he won't play back-to-backs, and George likely to miss 20+ games, isn't their ceiling about a 5-seed in the East?
Real Contenders
New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets
It's so rare in the NBA that two teams with title aspirations pull off a blockbuster trade on the eve of the season, but that's exactly what happened between the Knicks and Wolves late last month. As a result, each team's fate will be inextricably linked for at least the whole season, and perhaps for multiple years.
It's probably not possible that the trade is a true win-win for both sides, and the first 20-30 games for each team will feature some growing pains. But each team can be the real deal on both sides of the ball with multiple playmaking options, shooting, and ability to play big and small.
The Mavericks found lightning in a bottle after the P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford trades last season. The vast majority of last year's playoff rotation is back. Does Klay Thompson even need to rekindle his past form for Dallas to contend and be a postseason behemoth? I don't think so.
For the Nuggets, this inclusion is mostly about Nikola Jokic. The offseason vibes have not been great out of Denver, Jamal Murray was not good against Minnesota last season or in the Olympics, losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope hurts, and all the questions about Russell Westbrook are warranted. I'm not ignoring those concerns, but I trust Jokic to raise the floor of the team and to help more contributors emerge.
Title Favorites
Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder
I don't think much needs to be said about the Celtics at this point after they ran the league last year. Kristaps Porzingis will be out the first part of the season, but that shouldn't matter too much. Already, it appears like Jayson Tatum has recovered from his Olympic benchings and found his shooting stroke again. Even with some worse injury luck than last year, it's hard to imagine the Celtics being lower than a 2-seed in the East.
If the Celtics are the deserved favorites, Oklahoma City is probably the favorite for the most regular season wins. No team's five-year future looks brighter, and it wouldn't surprise anyone who follows the league if the Thunder had multiple titles in that span. Can they win it this year? After trading for Alex Caruso and adding Isaiah Hartenstein for rim protection, I say absolutely. Celtics/Thunder is my pick for the 2025 NBA Finals.
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