Every couple of years, I do a status check in this space of the U.S. Men's tennis landscape. Why just the men? It's not out of a lack of interest in the women, it's that they have continually produced slam winners in singles, which is what I'm interested in, so until further notice, their lights are all green.
You probably already know that's not the case for the men, who have not produced a slam winner since 2003, and have also not had any man ranked in the top four since 2007 (Andy Roddick, in both cases).
While the men have had plenty of examples just below that mark since then, we're still waiting for our first post-Roddick elite tennis player. Does this trend portend to end? The magic 8-ball says: reply hazy, try again.
First, the good news. You probably already know the most obvious piece of good news: at the U.S. Open, Taylor Fritz was the first U.S. men's slam singles finalist since 2006 (Roddick again). That's huge, and Fritz deserves even more credit than you may realize. After getting trounced in the third and fourth sets in the Australian Open against Novak Djokovic after playing him even, and maybe even slightly better the Nole, in the first two sets, he pointed to the fact that he needs to find a way to keep the high level up for five hours, not just two and a half.
Then, in the semifinals of the U.S. Open, what does he do? He wins the fourth and fifth sets to take the match over Frances Tiafoe 3 sets to 2.
In other words, he knew he had to dig deeper and get even fitter after the Australian Open, and that's exactly what he did.
Still, he got trounced in the finals to Jannik Sinner, once again emblematizing the hard ceiling the U.S. men have been up against for over 20 years now. Can Fritz find still another gear? Or are Sinner, Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz simply too good?
Beyond Fritz, what does the future hold? First, the bad news: the U.S. men have just nine guys in the top 100 of the live ATP rankings. That number has been around 12 for much of the last 3-4 years.
Part of that can be attributed to injury (Jenson Brooksby, Reilly Opelka) and retirement (John Isner, Sam Querrey, Steve Johnson). Others have fallen off: Christopher Eubanks has gone from a high ranking of 28th to a current 114. Mackenzie McDonald: 37/154. J.J. Wolf: 39/216. Maxime Cressy: 31/224.
The good news: a lot of the U.S. men rising in the rankings are quite young, and putting in results as good as or even better than the heralded U.S. junior class of Fritz, Tiafoe, Opelka, and Tommy Paul, circa 2015. Let's meet 'em:
Ben Shelton
Age: 21; Current Ranking: 18
Shelton is brash, fun, and already has two ATP titles to his credit, which is more than Fritz/Tiafoe/Opelka/Paul had at that age, and one of them is an ATP 500 title (i.e., slightly more prestigious, with a larger prize pool). He's the son of former University of Florida and Georgia Tech men's tennis coach Bryan Shelton, who led both schools to NCAA championships.
Alex Michelsen
Age: 20; Current Ranking: 44
His last name is pronounced the same as Phil Mickelson. His most impressive stat: he's already reached three ATP finals before his 20th birthday arrived this past August, although he is still looking for his maiden title.
Learner Tien
Age: 18; Current Ranking: 147
He was a finalist in the boy's singles at both the Australian Open and the US Open in 2023, and as he has moved from the junior to the senior ranks, he's made quick work of the Challenger tour (the level right below the ATP tour) a lot faster than most of the junior champions that preceded him, with two titles at that level since July.
Nishesh Basavareddy
Age: 19; Current Ranking: 245
Accomplishments-wise, he's sort of Tien light: accomplished junior career, but a year older. Three challenger finals, but he's lost them all, including one to Tien.
Kaylan Bigun
Age: 18; Current Ranking: 795
Kaylan is your reigning French Open boys champion, which is particularly exciting considering clay is usually not a strong surface for Americans. The win has seen him get a number of wild card entries into challenger tournaments, but he has yet to make a splash with those. Last name is pronounced big-OON, which is a bummer, I really want to say big 'un.
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