So far in the 2024 season, the results of four NFL games have come within half a point — or a "hook," as it is known in the trade — of the consensus opening line, meaning that this season is on pace to have a staggering 34 games end with that outcome.
"Captain Hook" is more dangerous than ever.
And this trend is now in its fourth straight year: In 2021 &mdaash; the first year of the 17-game schedule — eight of that season's 272 games, or 2.94% — had final scores within half a point of the consensus opening line.
This increased to 3.32% — nine of 271 — in 2022 (one game was declared a "no contest" due to the Damar Hamlin injury) — games ended in a half-point margin against the consensus opening line.
In 2023, 13 of the 272 regular-season games (4.78%) ended in one team covering by half a point while the other team lost to the spread by half a point — again using the consensus opening line as a measuring rod.
But many if not most sports books allow bettors to "buy" (or "sell") points to increase their chances of covering their spread — at the cost of giving more odds rather than accepting the standard "vig" of -110 (a loss costs the bettor $110 while a win earns him only $100). In the case of "selling" points, the bettor looks for a higher return by being willing to give more points on a favorite, or taking fewer points on an underdog, in exchange for a higher return than even money for a standard bet, and/or a better result than losing $110 for betting $100 and losing (especially attractive if the line is, say, 3 1/2 points and the better elects to wager his money on the favorite and "sells" one point, moving his line down to -2 1/2, willing to risk losing $130 if his team doesn't cover while winning only $100 if they do).
In Week 1 of this season, the Bills opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite over the Cardinals, but won the game by only six — the margin of covering being a successful 2-point conversion by Arizona power back James Conner with 8:31 remaining in the game, which made the score 31-28 in favor of Buffalo. And when the Bills had to settle for a 39-yard Tyler Bass field goal at the two-minute warning, Buffalo bettors got "hooked."
Meanwhile, in Miami, the Dolphins, 3 1/2-point favorites over the Jaguars and down 17-7 late in the third quarter, scored on an 80-yard bomb from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill; and after the ensuing kickoff was fumbled by Jacksonville's Parker Washington, Miami kicker Jason Sanders first missed a 42-yard field goal attempt, but then made a 37-yarder to tie the game after the Miami defense held. Then the Jags went three-and-out, with Trevor Lawrence getting sacked twice, and the Dolphins had enough time to get Sanders into position to kick a 52-yard field goal as time expired.
But a fat lot of good that did for those who bet on Miami minus 3 1/2.
"Captain Hook" struck again.
In Week 2, the Giants, 2 1/2-point underdogs, traveled to Landover, Maryland to take on the Washington Commanders. The game turned out to be a battle of field goals — made and missed, along with both missed extra points and missed two-point conversions — which, as in the Miami game, was decided by a walk-off 30-yard field goal by Washington's Austin Seibert, that covered the spread.
Of course we have "competitive balance," or "parity," to blame for this — along with so many other ills that have afflicted the NFL in recent years, most notably so many division titles and/or playoff berths getting decided by the league's arcane tie-breaking procedures.
It is a lot harder for a 14 1/2-point favorite to win by 14 than it is for a 3 1/2-point favorite to win by 3 — and that is what is causing the number of half-point covers to increase exponentially.
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