Warm take: this has been the most disappointing Week 1 in college football in recent memory.
Why? Two reasons.
1) All the blowouts in the marquee games. Miami/Florida? Blowout. Penn State/West Virginia? Blowout. Clemson/Georgia? Blowout. In fact, among schools in the top 25, only USC/LSU delivered us from evil; that was the only game featuring a top 25 team where the final margin of victory was in single digits.
2) None of the elite FCS programs pipped their FBS foes in Week 1. Nine FCS-ranked teams took on unranked FBS teams, and all of 'em lost. We've only had one FBS over FCS win so far, and that was in Week 0, when Montana State beat New Mexico.
I keep saying that we see more and more parity in college football every year and that's a great thing, so I need these FCS teams to come through!
But, more chances are coming up in Week 2. Here is the slate of ranked FCS opponents vs. unranked FBS opponents:
* South Dakota at Wisconsin (take the under)
* Idaho at Wyoming (more on this one in a bit)
* Sacramento State at Fresno State
* Chattanooga at Georgia Southern
* William & Mary at Coastal Carolina
* Albany at West Virginia
I think Sacramento State has a good shot at beating Fresno, but I can't be too optimistic about the others.
Oh, wait, a third thing! My Week 1 bets were just a bloodbath of losing. When I post picks here, I believe I am running a bit over .500 (I haven't been tracking), which is just about the most I can ask for. I'm very glad I didn't make Week 1 predictions in my last column.
Week 2 is a tricky beast too, because we don't know which teams that looked great in week 1 are gonna be too hoist on their own petard and have a letdown game, and which teams that looked shaky will get it together and rebound emphatically.
Which brings me back to Idaho at Wyoming. As of this writing, it seems no one has released a line (which makes sense; games involving FCS teams usually don't get a line until late in the week). But Idaho, of course, was very impressive in holding Oregon to a 10-point margin of victory, and Wyoming got stomped by Arizona State, who many are picking last in the Big 12.
This game is in Wyoming, however, which is a very tough place to play. The elevation in Laramie is nearly three times that of the elevation in Moscow, Idaho. Wyoming went undefeated at home last year, and were picked in the middle of the Mountain West pack this year.
Could Idaho come into the game overconfident? Could Wyoming be looking for redemption? Will bettors overreact to Idaho's great showing in Eugene and pound them, driving the line up?
All of this to say, if Idaho enters the game as a favorite of 4 or more, I'm taking Wyoming.
Other bets I'm looking at, for better or worse. All lined courtesy of Bovada.
UTSA +1 over Texas State
One betting axiom I like to follow for early-season college football is: I assume a team that was good last year will continue to be good this year until proven otherwise, and ditto for bad teams.
UTSA has three straight years of 9+ win seasons, a total that Texas State hasn't managed in the 11 years they've been an FBS team. They also struggled to put away FCS bottom-feeder Lamar last week.
Kansas/Illinois u55.5
The Big Ten West may be gone, but its spirit lives on in the form of every game being a 13-10 slugfest. I find it hard to believe that this game will see more points than Kansas and Lindenwood put together in their game last week. That was a 48-3 Jayhawk win against a team new to FCS.
Boise State +19 over Oregon
As I said earlier, I look for teams that underwhelmed in Week 1 to bounce back in Week 2, and boy, could Oregon use a bounce-back. But they could fire on all cylinders against the Broncos and still not cover; Boise State, along with Liberty, are the two teams widely predicted to get the G5 playoff spot.
I also like:
Tulane +10 over Kansas State
Baylor +14 over Utah
Marshall +20 over Virginia Tech
Western Michigan +39 over Ohio State
Enjoy the games, everyone!
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