Predicted records for each team included, followed by odds to win division and odds to win Super Bowl in parentheses. Odds courtesy of ESPN Bet.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: 12-5 (+175, +1600) — Four straight division titles, but they have led to no Super Bowl appearances and even only one Final Four trip. More of the same?
New York Jets: 10-7 (+185, +2000) — A-Rod's 2023 season lasted less than one quarter — as did Tom Brady's in 2008 and Randall Cunningham's in 1991. Both of those teams missed the playoffs in those seasons, but both came back to make the playoffs the following season — and HC Robert Saleh may need a playoff season to keep his job.
Miami Dolphins: 9-8 (+200, +2500) — Appeared headed for a deep playoff run until back-to-back losses to the Ravens and Bills followed by a first-round playoff defeat at KC where the wind chill was 27 below zero derailed them. Must improve their 1-5 record against over-.500 teams from a season ago.
New England Patriots: 2-15 (+2500, +25000) — Why draft Drake Maye with the third overall pick, only to go with Jacoby Brissett, who is 18-30 an NFL starter? They're making a good case for the league to implement a draft lottery.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: 12-5 (+150, +1300) — Takes biggest drop in the entire NFL in strength of schedule (actually, they're tied with the Cardinals) and invested heavily over the spring on their offensive line, which has been a major issue of late. Joe Mixon is gone, replaced by Zack Moss, who is more powerful than his size would suggest. But Joe Burrow is fragile, so handle with care.
Baltimore Ravens: 11-6 (+140, +1000) — In only one of Lamar Jackson's six seasons have they ranked in the top half of the league in net passing yards per game — and with Derrick Henry coming on board, it's even less likely that will happen this time around. Another potential problem is the loss of three starters along the offensive line via free agency. After finishing in sole possession of the best record in the NFL in 2023, they'll slip a bit this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8 (+750, +5000) — Mike Tomlin has zero losing seasons in 17 years, and they have not finished last in their division since 1988. Both streaks should hold up — but that's about it.
Cleveland Browns: 8-9 (+550, +4000) — Have found out the hard way that no player — not even a quarterback — is worth three first-round draft choices. That blunder is going to have an adverse effect on this team for many years to come — just like Mike McCormack's "Amazin' Mess" did in Philadelphia in the '70s.
AFC South
Houston Texans: 11-6 (+105, +1600) — C.J. Stroud shattered the Ohio State Quarterback Jinx in a rookie season to die for in 2023. But 22nd-ranked running game (96.9 yards per game) and 23rd-ranked pass defense (234.1 yards allowed per game) are going to have to improve if they are to pay their first visit to the Final Four in franchise history.
Indianapolis Colts: 9-8 (+325, +6000) — Anthony Richardson, nicknamed "AR-15" as a Florida Gator, is now "AR-5" in Indy — but by any nickname or number, he must stay healthy in this second season (he suffered a severe shoulder injury after just four games that aborted his rookie campaign). But until Jonathan Taylor can come back, and with power back Trey Sermon questionable with a hamstring injury as the season begins, the ball could be in the hands of Richardson and his receivers a lot, at least at the beginning. Defense had trouble against the run a year ago, but its 51 sacks out of a base 4-3 was fifth overall. There or thereabouts so far as the playoffs are concerned.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9 (+275, +5000) — Last season was a major disappointment, losing five of their last six to miss the playoffs — yet they rewarded underachieving QB Trevor Lawrence with a five-year, $275 million contract extension. At least he will have rookie Brian Thomas, Jr., who could be the next Calvin Johnson, to throw to, and RB Travis Etienne has two thousand-yard seasons in as many years in the NFL. But defense will have to improve on its 2023 showing (22nd overall and 26th against the pass) if they are to return to the postseason.
Tennessee Titans: 5-12 (+900, +15000) — After earning the AFC's top playoff seed in 2021, they have since finished 7-10 and then 6-11 — and now they have lost Derrick Henry. Presents one of the conference's bleaker pictures.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4 (-250, +500) — One of only two defending division champions (San Francisco is the other) who are odds-on favorites to repeat. But can they "three-peat" as Super Bowl champions? It's never been done before.
Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7 (+350, +4000) — Lost eight of their last nine games in 2023, including five in a row after Justin Herbert broke his right index finger, ending his season. Should complete division exacta (and quite possibly return to the playoffs) if something like that doesn't happen again.
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11 (+1000, +10000) — Aidan O'Connell has already lost his starting quarterback job to the lovely and talented Gardner Minshew, who is now on his fourth team. They also lost Josh Jacobs, a three-time 1,000-yard runner and the 2022 rushing champion, as a free agent to Green Bay. Only Denver will keep them out of the cellar.
Denver Broncos: 4-13 (+2000, +15000) — Another team that drafted a quarterback (Bo Nix) in the first round who may not see the field this season. Going the wrong way — at least for now.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 12-5 (-135, +1100) — Outperformed Dallas in both free agency (Saquon Barkley and the returning C.J. Gardner-Johnson) and the draft (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean), plus they get four off their last five games at home. Should keep this division's 20-year-old "No Repeat Jinx" alive — but Packers and Niners may prove too much for them come playoff time.
Dallas Cowboys: 10-7 (+175, +1800) — Jerry Jones had a bad case of the "Salary Cap Blues" which pretty much made him a wallflower in free agency, and they did not draft any so-called impact players. Taking the league's biggest jump in strength of schedule won't help their cause either.
Washington Commanders: 6-11 (+1100, +15000) — A familiar face, Dan Quinn, returns to the sidelines as a head coach — and unlike Maye or Nix, second overall pick Jayden Daniels has a clear path to starting at quarterback right away. His supporting cast will include the speedy Terry McLaurin, ex-Eagles tight end Zach Ertz, and a handy Mutt-n-Jeff backfield of Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson, Jr., and they may be called upon heavily as only the Giants allowed more sacks than their offensive line did in 2023. Defense gave up 518 points a year ago (third most in NFL history) and was also last against the pass (and 27th against the run). It's going to take time for Quinn to rebuild this team before they can even think about making the playoffs.
New York Giants: 5-12 (+1600, +20000) — The 85 sacks their offensive line allowed last season was the second most in NFL history (Philadelphia allowed 104 in 1986!) and Saquon Barkley has departed for the division rival Eagles. Daniel Jones can pretty much be written off as a bust at this point, while on defense, linebacker is the strong suit, the other two units, not so much. Brian Daboll is on the hottest of hot seats.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: 13-4 (+225, +1800) — Where are all the "experts" who said that it was a "reach" when they selected Jordan Love 26th overall in 2020 now? Josh Jacobs arrives via free agency, and A.J. Dillon has been re-signed to handle mainly short-yardage and goal-line duties (update: he has been placed on season-ending IR). On defense, incoming defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley (former HC at Boston College) will install a new 4-3 scheme, which should lead to more sacks (they had 45 even last year) and interceptions (only 7 in 2023, next-to-last in the league). They host Detroit, San Francisco, Miami, and New Orleans (all warm-weather or indoor teams) on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field in November and December — a huge advantage. Can they bring the Lombardi Trophy back home to its rightful place?
Detroit Lions: 11-6 (+125, +1000) — They come off their first division title since 1993 and their first Final Four appearance since 1991, so the ghost of Matt Millen can be considered exorcised. Also had both a thousand-yard rusher (David Montgomery) and a 119-catch, 1,500-yard receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown). On defense, the Eagles must be kicking themselves for not signing MLB Alex Anzalone, a local product, when he became a free agent in the spring of 2021 (instead, they signed Eric Wilson — quite possibly their biggest mistake since 2005, when they drafted Ryan Moats when they could have had Brandon Jacobs instead). There's really nothing wrong with them heading into this season — except that it just might be Green Bay's year.
Chicago Bears: 9-8 (+300, +4000) — A Chinese proverb states that it does not matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it kills mice. Same goes for Caleb Williams and his (how shall we say?) quirks. Ex-Eagle D'Andre Swift will provide the speed at running back, while Roschon Johnson will provide the power when it's needed. Defense will go to 4-2-5 scheme that has become increasingly popular in recent years, and kicker Cairo Santos is the most accurate placekicker in the franchise's 104-year history. Primed for first winning season since 2018 — but top two look too tough.
Minnesota Vikings: 3-14 (+900, +10000) — The 18-game schedule can't come soon enough: Their first-round draft choice, QB J.J. McCarthy, who was 27-1 as a starter at Michigan, suffered a torn meniscus in an exhibition; i.e., preseason game, making him the first quarterback in NFL history drafted in the first round to miss his entire rookie season because of injury. So now it's Sam Darnold, who is 21-35 as a starter, to be backed up by Brett Rypien (nephew of Super Bowl XXXVI champion Mark), who has a career passer rating of 59.9. How interesting that not a single NFL team has traded away their first-round pick in the 2025 draft?
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 10-7 (+400, +10000) — Probably should have won this division last year; new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak (SB 50 champion Gary Kubiak's son) is being counted on to mix things up more than his predecessor Pete Carmichael did; Alvin Kamara (who would no doubt be dubbed "King Kamaramara" by Chris Berman if Berman was still around) looks to break his "double maiden" (he has never had a 1,000-yard season, either rushing or passing) in what will be his eighth NFL season, while Chris Olave has one cold eye on his first Pro Bowl invite. It could come down to how well Derek "Dude, Where's My" Carr plays (he had a solid 97.7 passer rating last year) and defense is better than a number of teams who will make the playoffs. Won four of their last five in 2023 to lose the division title on tie-breakers — but if they don't leave themselves with too much to do this season, they can end their three-year playoff drought.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-8 (+325, +6000) — Turned division race into a sprint to the finish by winning five of their last six; Baker Mayfield, 42-48 as a starter, sticks around playing for his fourth different team; Mike Evans is 10-for-10 at having thousand-yard receiving seasons, but running game trailed the entire NFL in both 2023 and 2022 and has not had a top-half ranking since 2015. Like most teams that operate out of 3-4, their defense is tough to run against (fifth a year ago), but not tough at all to pass against (29th). Got to the Elite Eight last year — but not seeing that happen again.
Atlanta Falcons: 8-9 (-135, +3000) — They're odds-on favorites to win this division just because they signed a quarterback who is 17-50 lifetime against over-.500 teams and 12-19 on prime time, and is also coming off a torn Achilles? RB Bijan Robinson appears to be keeper, TE Kyle Pitts is the highest-drafted tight end in NFL draft history (4th overall), but wide receivers, until proven otherwise, are dismal. Defense improved across the board last season, rising from 27th overall, 23rd against the run and 25th against the pass in 2022 to 11th, 20th and 8th, respectively. Not buying it — not for a minute.
Carolina Panthers: 1-16 (+1100, +20000) — Mortgaged the first pick in the 2024 draft for a quarterback who has the weakest arm the NFL has seen since Eddie LeBaron. About the only "solace" they will derive this season is having a statistically "good" pass defense because every one of their opponents will know that all they have to do is score 20 points to beat them, so they will all play "not to lose" against their defense (the 1998 Eagles ranked No. 1 against the pass as their offense averaged 10 points per game and was shut out three times).
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: 13-4 (-200, +600) — Only one head coach has won a Super Bowl the year after losing one since 1972 — and his name is Bill Belichick (lost SB LII, won SB LIII), and two potential late-season visits to Lambeau Field could prove to be two too many. They still have more than enough talent to stay atop this division.
Los Angeles Rams: 10-7 (+350, +3000) — Their draft drought is finally over — seven consecutive years without a first-round pick from 2017 through 2023 — and they tabbed outside linebacker Jared Verse of Florida State. Two free-agent guards (Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson) are on hand, both to protect Matthew Stafford and to open up more holes for Kyren Williams, who rushed for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite playing in only 12 games. But the retirement of Aaron Donald has left them mighty thin along the defensive line. Probably can't threaten the 49ers, but should stay comfortably ahead of the Cardinals and Seahawks.
Arizona Cardinals: 7-10 (+1300, +10000) — Their four 2023 wins included three over playoff teams (Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles) and they're taking the biggest drop in the league in strength of schedule (tied with Cincinnati) — and they traded for Desmond Ridder just in case the diminutive Kyler Murray's bad injury luck continues. Another plus is 12 draft choices, including two in the first round. Guess Jonathan Gannon isn't such a bad head coach after all. But overtaking the Rams — let alone the Niners? Not this year.
Seattle Seahawks: 6-11 (+750, +6000) — Let's see what incoming head coach Mike Macdonald can do with a poor running game (28th in the league in 2023) and a chronic poor defense (22nd or worse the last five years in a row). You want Geno Smith (30-37 as a starter) putting it up 40 times a game, a la Archie Manning 50 years ago — even if he is throwing to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett? They figure to get worse before they start getting better again.
Playoffs (Home teams in CAPS)
AFC Wild Card — CINCINNATI over L.A. Chargers
--------------------------BUFFALO over N.Y. Jets
--------------------------HOUSTON over Baltimore
NFC Wild Card — SAN FRANCISCO over Dallas
--------------------------PHILADELPHIA over L.A. Rams
--------------------------Detroit over NEW ORLEANS
AFC Divisional — KANSAS CITY over Houston
--------------------------Cincinnati over BUFFALO
NFC Divisional — GREEN BAY over Detroit
--------------------------SAN FRANCISCO over Philadelphia
AFC Championship — Cincinnati over KANSAS CITY
NFC Championship — GREEN BAY over San Francisco
Super Bowl LIX — Green Bay over Cincinnati
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