The final year of the four-team College Football Playoff has been equal parts exciting and controversial. Its conclusion could produce the best product the playoff era has seen to date. This year might be the most excited I've been to watch the semifinals in the 10 playoff seasons. With a Michigan/Alabama Rose Bowl and a Texas/Washington Sugar Bowl, we have a battle between two blue-blood programs in college football's most iconic setting and a clash between two of the most enjoyable teams to watch.
Yet, as bowl season began on Saturday, I found myself more interested in the three-game NFL slate and college basketball played 90 days before the start of March Madness.
Seven years ago, I wrote a general defense of non-premier bowl games as the wave of players sitting them out to protect their draft standing began. Now, in the NIL and transfer portal era, I'm wondering if it's time to rethink that stance.
As I wrote in 2016, an underrated part of the last half of December in college football was being able to watch some less-heralded teams and players from Group of 5 conferences play on ESPN on a weekday evening or weekend afternoon. In the age of the transfer portal, you can of course still watch those games, but you might not be watching the players that helped get those teams there.
For example, when Western Kentucky played Old Dominion on Monday in the bowl game closest to my home in the Charlotte area, five 2023 Hilltoppers players who logged 400+ snaps this season chose to sit out because they entered the transfer portal. And I can't exactly blame any of them when possible future playing time at a bigger program and/or NIL money is on the line.
Outside of the playoffs but still in the New Year's Six games, the prevalence of 10+ win Power 5 teams this season has made the non-playoff bowls feel especially like unwanted and even untimely consolation prizes a year before the 12-team playoff comes into existence. On paper, the Florida State/Georgia Orange Bowl on Dec. 30 should be the best possible non-playoff game between teams hungry to prove that they, and not Alabama and Texas, should be in the championship tournament.
Of course, the modern risk-reward of football economics means many Seminoles and Bulldogs stars won't be playing, nor will some of their prospective backups who have already departed for new programs.
All that said, I don't want to completely ignore all of the non-playoff and New Year's Six bowl season. Ignoring all but the three games that will determine the national champion shouldn't be what bowl season is about. I'll be giving special attention to games outside of the playoffs and New Year's Six that involve two 8+ win teams. In any era since the late 1980s, these teams would be in bowl games as a reward for a strong season.
Think of these as the hidden gems of the bowl season. (Lines courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Dec. 23: Armed Forces Bowl: James Madison (-2.5) vs. Air Force
What a fall of 2023 for James Madison! The Dukes weren't even supposed to be bowl-eligible in a transition year to FBS, but the NCAA wisely decided to give 11-1 James Madison a waiver and prevent a 5-7 team from claiming an undeserved bowl nod. James Madison's basketball team is 10-0, nationally ranked, and could be the last undefeated team in Division 1 hoops.
Air Force started the season 8-0 and looked like a strong Mountain West and New Year's Six contender, but then significant injuries hit key players on both sides of the ball and the Falcons finished 8-4 with no Mountain West title game berth. Despite a loss to Army in November, Air Force played the best football of any service academy.
James Madison has several players, including star QB Jordan McCloud, in the portal, but several of those may play. The Dukes also have a makeshift coaching staff for this bowl after head coach Curt Cignetti and both coordinators left for Indiana in November.
Dec. 26: Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas (-12.5) vs. UNLV
In just three seasons, Lance Leipold has turned Kansas from the nation's most moribund and embarrassing Power 5 program into an eight-win team with a winning conference record in the Big 12. Meanwhile, first-year coach Barry Odom led UNLV to nine wins and a Mountain West championship game appearance. A bowl game win would give the Rebels their first 10-win season since 1984.
The line here clearly reflects a talent disparity between Power 5 and Group of 5. Both teams love to run the ball, and neither team is particularly solid stopping the run, so look for a bunch of ground yards in this contest.
Dec. 27: Duke's Mayo Bowl: North Carolina vs. West Virginia (-6.5)
The Tar Heels were looking like a fringe playoff contender before losing to Virginia in October in one of the season's most shocking upsets. To close out the regular season, UNC lost the two most important games on its schedule, at Clemson and at NC State, and wasn't particularly competitive in either. Predictably, Drake Maye will sit out this bowl as he prepares to be a top-10 pick in the spring.
This season had all the makings of a lame-duck year for West Virginia head coach Neal Brown after topping out at six wins in four previous years in Morgantown and coming in last place in the Big 12 preseason media poll. However, the Mountaineers rode a stellar rushing game and a favorable conference schedule to an 8-4 record. West Virginia shouldn't have nearly as many key contributors sitting out as North Carolina, which is reflected in the spread.
Dec. 28: Pop-Tarts Bowl: NC State vs. Kansas State (-3)
For the past couple of years, I've thought of NC State as the ACC's answer to Iowa with a strong, talented defense, lots of third-down stops, and a questionable offense. But to continue that assumption would perhaps be disrespectful of how the Wolfpack were able to end the season behind QB Brennan Armstrong.
However, when the Wolfpack defense faces Kansas State, it'll face an offense that's been humming along all season and not just in the final weeks of November. The Wildcats also came agonizingly close to beating Missouri and Texas on the road, which could have vaulted them into New Year's Six contention. Offensive coordinator Collin Klein is on his way to Texas A&M and Kansas State may have some talented skill position opt-outs.
Dec. 28: Alamo Bowl: Arizona (-2.5) vs Oklahoma
With Oklahoma ranked No. 12 and Arizona No. 14 in the final CFP ranking, this is a battle of teams that would have just been on the outside looking in if a 12-team playoff with one Group of 5 representative was in place this season. Both teams are great through the air, and the over/under is 62.5, so I'd be ready for a fun game despite the transfer of Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel to Oregon. In addition to Gabriel, OU has more impactful opt-outs than Arizona, including two offensive linemen who are NFL Draft entrants.
Dec. 29: Sun Bowl: Oregon St. vs Notre Dame (-6.5)
I see "Sun Bowl" and "Oregon State" in the same sentence and I immediately start to have hallucinations of one of the most hilariously terrible games ever. I'd be stunned if this game ends 3-0, but would I be surprised if it ended 14-10? I don't think so. Each defense is solid, and made life extremely difficult for the best team on their respective schedules (Washington for Oregon State; Ohio State for Notre Dame).
Neither season-long starting QB will play in this game, with D.J. Uiagalelei in the portal and Sam Hartman preparing for the draft after five years as a starter between Wake Forest and the Fighting Irish. Furthermore, the Beavers may be without all their top skill players. Just about every position group for Notre Dame is affected by the portal. Of any of the games on this list, you might want to wait until the middle of the 3rd quarter to tune in and check if it's a good game.
Dec. 30: Arizona Bowl: Toledo vs Wyoming (-3.5)
Last in our chronological order is ... a bowl game on The CW! It's worth noting the sponsor and the commentators in the link in case those guys aren't your bag or you don't want to be bombarded with constant betting references while watching. I pretty much guarantee more people are watching this than watch LIV Golf on The CW.
This bowl game should be one of the least impacted by opt-outs, but Toledo star QB Dequan Finn is off to Baylor. Both teams love to run the ball and each team ranks at or near the top of their conference in scoring defense, so don't be surprised if this game turns into a ground battle.
Earlier in the season, I asserted that this was the last season of college football as we know it. This is also probably the last bowl season as we know it. While I assume a similar number of bowl games will be played in the 12-team playoff era, the expansion of the playoff calendar will further push the majority of bowls into the background, with a first round of games to be played on the weekend that traditionally begins bowl season now, and the quarterfinals to be played when the New Year's Six and other long-standing bowls typically occur.
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