The Most Problematic Newcomer on the HOF Ballot

This is the dilemna: the one genuine, should-be Hall of Fame lock among the newcomers on the Baseball Writers Association of America's 2023 ballot is also the first major figure from the Astrogate cheating scandal to arrive upon a such a ballot.

With Barry Bonds (actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances), Roger Clemens (see Bonds), and Curt Schilling (vile public commentaries since his retirement, despite his overwhelming Hall case) out of their BBWAA eligibility and now in the hands of the Contemporary Era Committee, it didn't mean controversy left the BBWAA voters with those three. This new candidate by himself makes up for the loss, unfortunately.

Before the exposure of the Astro Intelligence Agency's illegal, off-field-based, electronic sign-stealing operation of 2017-18, Carlos Beltrán figured to have ended his playing career (as the Astros' 2017 designated hitter) looking forward to accepting a plaque in Cooperstown. That and managing in the major leagues.

The No. 9 center fielder of all-time (according to Baseball-Reference via Jay Jaffe) who'd been respected as a student of the game and managerial material in the making found himself having to yield the bridge of the Mets (for whom he'd once starred as a player) — before he had the chance even to manage a spring training exhibition.

Though Commissioner Rob Manfred handed all 2017-18 Astro players immunity from discipline in return for spilling AIA deets, Beltrán was the only player Manfred singled out by name in his Astrogate report. It was Beltrán who suggested the Astros needed to "upgrade" from mere replay room reconnaissance, prompting then-bench coach Alex Cora to arrange the long-infamous real-time camera feed to an extra clubhouse monitor for sign deciphering and the long-infamous trash can transmissions.

That was despite Manfred's September 2017 warning against using replay room reconnaissance and other such off-field chicanery, after the Red Sox (eventually using their own Rogue Sox Replay Room Reconnaissance in 2018 regardless) and the Yankees were caught trying a few tricks from the dugouts.

Beltrán landed the Mets' managing job twelve days before Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich (in The Athletic) dropped the first full Astrogate revelation in November 2019. Within 72 hours of Manfred's January 2020 report, all three incumbent managers named in the Rosenthal-Drellich exposure — Beltrán, Cora (who managed the 2018 Red Sox to a World Series championship), and the Astros' A.J. Hinch (who acted feebly at best when catching onto his AIA cheaters) — were out.

Hinch was fired by Astros owner Jim Crane in hand with general manager Jeff Luhnow, but after sitting out his Manfred-imposed season's suspension and some very contrite interviews, he found new life on the Tigers' bridge. Cora sat out his Manfred-imposed season's suspension, gave a few interviews in which he expressed genuine remorse for his Astrogate role, and was brought back to manage the Red Sox.

Beltrán said little about his Astrogate culpability until he returned to baseball as an analyst for the Yankees' YES cable television network in April. There, he owned up in an interview with YES colleague Michael Kay:

"Looking back now — yes, we did cross the line. I made my statement about what happened in 2017, and I apologized . . . This happened in such an organic way for ourselves. We all did what we did. Looking back today, we were wrong. I wish I would have asked more questions about what we were doing, I wish the organization would have said to us, "What you guys are doing, we need to stop this." Nobody really said anything — we're winning."

Obviously, Beltrán either didn't know or chose not to know that "the organization" as headed by Luhnow was in it up to its kishkes, having deployed the Codebreaker sign-stealing algorithm despite its creator's warning that it was legal to use only before or after games but not during.

Had Astrogate never happened, Beltrán would have been a very likely first-ballot Hall of Famer. He played 20 seasons, and his peak with the Royals, the Astros (the first time, helping them reach a postseason with his second-half term there), the Mets (helping them to the 2006 postseason), and the Cardinals (two postseasons) was all-star caliber or better. (He was actually a nine-time all-star.)

He earned 67.6 wins above replacement-level (WAR) from his first full Kansas City season through the second of two with the Cardinals. That was despite missing significant time due to injuries in his final Met seasons. My Real Batting Average (RBA) metric — total bases + walks + intentional walks + sacrifice flies + hit by pitches, divided by total plate appearances — shows him not far off the middle of the Hall of Fame center field pack that played in the post-World War II/post-integration/night-ball era. Beltrán's .553 is behind Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., Duke Snider, and Larry Doby, but ahead of Andre Dawson, Kirby Puckett, and Richie Ashburn.

Now, however, marry it to Beltrán's defensive prowess. He's the No. 7 center fielder all-time for run prevention above his league average with +104. He was rangy, smart on the fielding lanes, and was a top of the line reader of batted balls from his position before Father Time finally began to exact a penalty.

Until Astrogate, of course, Beltrán had only one genuine black mark against him, especially so far as Met fans were concerned: frozen solid by an Adam Wainwright curve ball for strike three called — with the bases loaded, the Mets down two runs, and the pennant on the line in the bottom of the ninth, in Game 7 of the 2006 National League Championship Series.

You know something? It happens. Even to Hall of Famers. Beltrán wasn't the first superstar to get himself tied up at the last minute of that critical a postseason set, and he won't be the last. That's not enough to damage a man's Hall case. No 11th-hour shortfall should have been. Not even for Babe Ruth.

You want to continue condemning Beltrán for that? How about The Big Fella getting himself caught stealing on a likely busted run-and-hit play to end the 1926 World Series in the Cardinals' favor — with Bob Meusel at the plate and Hall of Famer Lou Gehrig on deck?

How about Willie McCovey — with second and third, two out, and the Giants down only 1-0 — hitting a howitzer shot speared by Bobby Richardson to end the 1962 Series in the Yankees' favor instead of sending the tying and maybe winning Giants runs home?

How about Carl Yastrzemski flying out with two out and the Red Sox down a single run to end the 1975 Series in the Reds' favor?

How about Mariano Rivera surrendering a Series-losing base hit to Luis Gonzalez in 2001 or — after Dave Roberts stole second off a leadoff walk — an RBI single to Bill Mueller to tie the game at 4 when the Yankees were only 3 outs from a 2004 ALCS sweep?

None of those fatalities kept Ruth, McCovey, Yastrzemski, or The Mariano out of Cooperstown when their time eventually came. Getting frozen solid by a great pitch shouldn't keep Beltrán out, either.

But it's entirely realistic to suggest that, had Beltrán not gotten himself into the thick of the 21st Century's worst major league cheating scandal, in his final season as a player, he'd probably be looking at unvarnished, uncontroversial first-ballot Hall of Fame election. Right now, we don't know how many Hall-voting BBWAA writers will hold it against him enough to make him wait a ballot or three. Or more.