If you have been reading Slant Pattern lately, you know that I have become more serious about sports betting in the last few years. You also know that all of the winners I have given out have been the work of sheer genius, and all of my misses were the results of bad luck, and that if there was any justice in this world, any at all, I would never, ever lose a bet.
So what do I use to help me make my picks? Well, lots of stuff, some of which is useful for the information it provides, while others are more about entertainment and personality. Let's look at some.
This is a great site with a simple premise: Track a number of different betting system models against the spread and total for every pro and college football and basketball game, compare it to the Vegas side and total, and allow you to see on aggregate, as well as individually, how each model compares to the actual line, for each game.
It's completely free and very uncluttered and straightforward, and it also tracks the different models' winning percentages. One word of caution is that is only tracks models. It does not track, say, individual bettors who may use a non-model system. And models often cannot account for things like weather and injuries.
This is a podcast I started listening to a few weeks ago, and while the NFL picks these two guys offer have been solid so far, this one is about entertainment. These (I'm quite sure) are California dudes and have very Valley Guy patter. It's hilarious. The Raiders are "The Raids." The 49ers are "The Nines." A good player is a "joker" and a bad one is "bueno." That last one is not a typo. An exclamation they use is "Jim Christmas" and Eddy Pineiro blew the game at Atlanta a few weeks ago with a "shankaroo."
I spoke of models above, and this a model for college basketball. So why don't I just stick to The Prediction Tracker if I want to look at a model? Two reasons make this worth the $21.95 I spend on it annually. Ken Pomeroy (hence the name KenPom) is something of a luminary of college basketball analytics, and his margins of victory cleave very closely to the actual Vegas lines to the point where I suspect many sportsbook use his line as a starting point.
Two, the model can look ahead and give you a model-predicted score for any game upcoming this season, a score that will be adjusted as games in the meantime are played. He has also brought his analytical prowess to curling as well, which I like.
VSIN stands for "Vegas Sports and Information Network," and it's been where Brent Musberger has been hanging out for the last few years.
It's basically a radio and streaming syndicate devoted to betting, with live programs 21 hours a day on weekdays, I believe. Some of the personalities and hosts there that I particularly like are:
Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard
These are the weekday morning guys, and they are cranky curmudgeons, and I mean that in the most affectionate way possible. While I cannot stand bombast and the manufactured outrage that is so common in sports punditry, these guys' outrage is not manufactured, and the vibe is more akin to your cranky uncles. Love 'em.
Gill Alexander
Gill follows Mitch and Pauly into the early afternoon, and he is loquacious and chill. How welcome in radio! What a respite! That's what I like about VSIN's hosts in general — they have genuinely interesting and personalities, and don't resort to the Stephen A. Smith loudmouthery.
Matt Youmans
Another affable guy whose just a pleasure to listen to, he mans weekend overnights and sounds very, very much like Teddy from Bob's Burgers. I wonder if anyone has ever told him that.
Greg Peterson
Greg Peterson is the weeknights overnight host and one of the most interesting people I have ever come across. He certainly must be one of the hardest working men in Vegas. Like KenPom and others, he establishes a line and total for every college basketball game, every day (same for MLB during the baseball season). Unlike KenPom, he does not employ a model, and goes over every game individually, and breaks down his rationale for his line and total for every game on his daily podcast, which given the volume of college basketball, often goes hours.
This, again, is on top of hosting a three-hour program five nights a week. And you don't have to listen to his podcasts to get his picks, just click on the spreadsheet on his pinned tweet. Just an extraordinary amount of output; I hope he doesn't work himself to death.
Leave a Comment