There are days when the stars perfectly align to make history the result. In college basketball, Saturday, February 27th, 2022 will stand out as one of those days. When conferences release their schedules before each season, they hope to get as many prime matchups as possible for the late-season push. The drama doesn't always play out as the leagues hope it will, but when it does ... oooh, baby.
Going into last Monday, the Associated Press poll was stacked with behemoths. The top 10 are shifting their focus from "positioning battle" to "postseason grind." But a funny thing happened on the way to the "One Shining Moment." Eight of the top 10 squads hit the road (#10 Baylor hosted Kansas, #8 Villanova had the weekend off after losing at UConn earlier in the week). Of that octet, only #7 Duke came only with a victory. It was the first time since the beginning of the AP rankings (1948) that the top six teams all lost on the same day.
Now, the defeated in all these games will be fine. All of them will be 3 seeds (at worst) and title contenders in the upcoming NCAA tournament. What about the winners, though? How do their tournament outlooks appear with the postseason an eyelash away?
Roaring Back to Title Contention
Baylor was not an expected champion in 2021. The Bears culminated, in my opinion, the greatest redemption story when they lifted the trophy last April. This season, they're doing their best to make sure we don't forget they hold the crown. That may have been lost a bit after being swept at the hands of Texas Tech and getting blown out in Lawrence. Saturday's rematch with Kansas served as such a reminder. Another 1-seed is in reach. And they're not fully healthy, either.
Riding That Late-Season Momentum
The SEC is better and deeper than it was about 5-8 years ago. Two reasons for that are the improved consistency of Tennessee and the resurgence of Arkansas. The Volunteers haven't dropped out of sight this season, at least when it comes to having a number by the school name. In terms of the headliners of the college hoops season, the Volunteers are below the radar. This is the team that makes you wonder. They've defeated Arizona, LSU, Kentucky, and, now, Auburn. But all those wins came in Knoxville. Can they turn on that fire on neutral courts in the first and second weekends of the tournament?
The Razorbacks showed up on the radar after last season's Elite Eight run. The returns strengthened after a 9-0 start to this campaign. However, they closed out the year with a period of struggle, losing 5 of 6 that included an 0-3 start to the in-conference schedule. The turnaround has been definitive. The Hogs have victories in 13 of their last 14 games (Auburn, Tennessee, and, now, Kentucky have been among the victims). Have they rebounded in time to set up another deep run?
Fun fact: Arkansas will be at Tennessee to close the regular season this coming Saturday.
Don't Forget About Us
The last column I wrote for this site referenced the surging momentum out of East Lansing. Well, my personal trademark of jinxing took hold. Since opening my big mouth, Michigan State had lost six of nine. That was, they were leading up to Saturday. The upset win over Purdue won't save the Spartans' bid to win another Big Ten title. However, it is a reminder of the chaos this team can cause. They will be playing March 17th or 18th, and that won't be welcome news for the team on the opposite bench.
Gonzaga has ruled the West Coast Conference for the past 20-plus years. The team that has consistently provided the most competition for the throne is Saint Mary's. Despite the arrival of BYU to the league, the Gaels are the biggest thorn in the Bulldogs' side. That showed its head again on Saturday, when the Zags were held more than 30 points under their season scoring average. If the Gaels can hold a team with that many offensive weapons to less than 60 points, I wouldn't be the first one to sell them short on their NCAA prospects.
Where Do We Stand?
Of the seven big upsets that took place Saturday, two of them were pulled by teams that don't appear to be in the field. One of them may have finished enough of a solidified foundation in their tournament resume to assure a spot in the field. TCU hasn't been a part of the Madness since 2018 (the only time the program has made it since 1998), but beating Texas Tech means that a .500 conference record is in reach. That means something in what some recognize as the toughest league in Division I. The Horned Frogs aren't out of the woods yet, but that also means being presented an opportunity. TCU has an extremely rare home-and-home with Kansas this week (thanks to an earlier COVID postponement). A split may seal the bid for the field of 68.
The other team in the upset equation isn't as highly regarded. This is a down season for the Pac-12. After getting 5 tourney bids in 2021, the conference is looking at a guaranteed three invites. A fourth could come through in the at-large field, but the love is gathered more in Oregon's direction right now. Colorado could get their 20th win this coming Saturday, but the 19th will be the biggest of the regular season. The victory over Arizona made people turn their heads. However, to get into the field, it appears the Buffaloes must take the same path that their first-round opponent last March did ... win the conference tournament (like Georgetown last season).
You never know what could happen any day on a sports calendar. But on a college basketball Saturday late in the going, an upset of magnitude may lead to a magical journey of epic proportions.
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