During most NBA seasons, the All-Star Break is typically considered a midway point — games prior to it occur in the "first half" of the season, games after happen in the "second half." Now, thanks to the Super Bowl happening on the second Sunday in February, that midway point is more like a three-quarter pole, with every team having played 58 to 60 of 82 games ahead of the weekend's festivities in Cleveland.
When games get back underway on Thursday, just six-and-a-half weeks of the regular season will remain, and the play-in tournament begins on April 12. Ready or not, playoffs are less than two months away.
With a brief period of time and only about 20 games available for teams to make a run in the standings or significantly change their identities, it's time to be thinking about playoff odds and intricacies.
Given everything we've seen this season, there's one clear title favorite in my mind at the break: the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns have the league's best record, and only the Warriors and Grizzlies are within 10 games of them. Heading into the break, Phoenix has won 18 of 19, is the only team in the league with a top-five offense and defense and leads the league in net rating.
But there's a lot behind those stats that should equate to championship success.
For starters, the Suns made the Finals last year, and getting back there with a core group that hasn't won a ring (outside of JaVale McGee) is a powerfully motivating factor. Phoenix can play at any pace and has strong results playing with small-ball lineups, but is most comfortable playing half-court basketball and a traditional lineup with Deandre Ayton or McGee at center.
Phoenix has a strong, dynamic bench led by Cam Johnson, which just got stronger with the re-acquisition of Torrey Craig from the Pacers at the trade deadline. But the Suns aren't so deep as to throw their best crunch-time playoff lineup into doubt. The lineup of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Ayton has logged the most minutes of any full lineup in the league this season, following leading the league in five-man lineup minutes in the 2020-21 regular season and 2021 playoffs.
No other contending team in the league — including the Bucks, who vanquished the Suns in last year's Finals — has as few questions to answer for the rest of the season and playoffs.
And appropriately, the Suns are the favorites to win the title at the All-Star break at around +400 depending on the book — but they aren't prohibitive favorites — with the Warriors being a consensus No. 2 marginally behind and the Bucks, Nets, Heat, and Sixers not too far behind Golden State.
I think there are a couple of big factors baked into these odds.
First, there's the perception that the Suns were lucky to make the Finals last year because of injuries — first to the oft-injured Anthony Davis in the first round against the Lakers, then facing a Nuggets team without Jamal Murray in the second round and the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard in the Conference Finals.
Injuries happen during every season, and teams still have to win the games to advance in the playoffs. After all, the Blazers couldn't do that last year against a Nuggets team that was still formidable and the Jazz couldn't against the Clippers.
Second, my guess is that there's substantial public betting based on star power with the Warriors, Bucks, Nets, and Sixers. After the Harden-Simmons swap at the trade deadline, I have to wait and see how the Sixers and Nets look, respectively, with their new pieces — and if Kyrie Irving is allowed by New York City to play home games sometime this spring — before I consider each as true title chances.
For the Warriors, it's clear that the Steph Curry/Klay Thompson/Draymond Green nucleus doesn't carry the same gravitas that the 2015-19 versions of those players did. While Curry is still an outside chance for a third MVP, he hasn't been as unstoppable in January and February. Thompson is having the ups and downs you'd expect of a player who missed 2.5 years, and Green's return date from a back injury is still vague.
Can the other Warriors who have stepped up this season, namely Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, do so in the second round of the playoffs or later? I'm skeptical. The Warriors' offensive numbers are just above league average, and their defense has been struggling without Green available to orchestrate switches and disrupt passing lanes.
The Bucks still have the most physically dominant weapon in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and that may be enough to carry the Bucks again in the spring. But the Bucks' rim protection and overall defensive numbers have been lacking without Brook Lopez. Depending on if Lopez returns and what Serge Ibaka has left in the tank, can Giannis be all-world on both ends of the floor for eight weeks playing 40+ minutes a game on a Milwaukee team that isn't as deep as last year? I'm skeptical of that as well.
I haven't mentioned Memphis or Miami to this point, and I think each may be better value for the title than the Bucks or Warriors, but the Grizzlies may find playoff life completely different as a superstar-led, first-time contender compared to a plucky 8 seed. The Heat don't yet appear to have the offense to keep up with the best, although Miami's defense is giving everyone fits at full strength.
Miami tops the East at the moment, but that's sure to change on an almost-daily basis. Toronto, winners of 9 of 11 heading into the break, is in a play-in spot ... just 5 games back of the Heat. Brooklyn — third-favorite to win the whole thing depending where you look — is behind the Raptors in the standing. The East playoffs are going to be a gauntlet of evenly-matched teams. The West probably won't be, with respect to the Jazz, Nuggets, Mavs, and Wolves.
While the Suns should be a solid favorite and are the closest thing this season has to a juggernaut, a handful or more of teams could conceivably win the title — and the two preseason favorite teams may have to participate in the play-in tournament. This season should provide a fascinating last two months of the regular season and a healthily unpredictable playoff season.
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