Going into this college basketball season, I decided that, for betting purposes, I would focus on one, smaller conference for betting purposes.
This is because it is hard to get a big edge on high profile events. A NFL playoff game, for example, or a Duke/North Carolina scrap, will have a ton of expertise producing the Vegas lines, and well they should, because naturally those events have the most betting action on them. But how much blood, sweat and tears are they putting into the conference games of teams that are usually seeded no higher than 15 come tourney time?
Not as much as they could, so maybe there is an edge to be had. I chose the MEAC (the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference), one of the two Division I Historically Black Colleges and Universities: they are currently ranked 32nd — last — among Division I conferences according to Kenpom.com.
That surprised me a bit, because it seems like most of the teams, save Delaware State, have done as well as a low major can expect to do in non-conference play. Or perhaps I've become a MEAC homer over the course of this experiment?
The main reason I chose the MEAC, besides being an under-the-radar conference, is that only eight teams are in the conference, which makes it that much easier to track.
The cliff notes of the conference as I see it: Norfolk State and Howard are the class of the conference, Delaware State is by far the worst team, and everyone else (Morgan State, North Carolina Central, South Carolina State, Coppin State, and Maryland-Eastern Shore) are all a bit bunched together, which us a pleasant surprise going into the season for Maryland-Eastern Shore and a disappointment for preseason favorites Morgan State.
As I write this (Monday night, January 24th), the MEAC has a full slate of games going. Unfortunately, most of the lines look about right to me.
Except one: South Carolina State is a -8.5 favorite over Delaware State. Delaware State is perhaps the worst team in D1. They have come within 10 of a D1 school only once this year, in November. They lost to a D3 school (that means no athletic scholarships) that has a losing record. Their closest game in their last five (including three conference games) has been a 24-point loss.
South Carolina State has been fairly decent, with an early conference win, an OT loss, and 5 D1 wins out of conference, including AAC foe South Florida. Don't see how this isn't a blowout too. I put a whopping 8 units on it (where 1 unit = typical bet size for you).
So now, I'm watching the game on Delaware State's YouTube channel (they are at home) and we pick up the action with South Carolina State leading 23-21 with 7:10 in the first half.
7:08 left, 1st half — Delaware State is the Hornets, and the area between the paint and the three-point line is adorned with a cool honeycomb/beehive pattern.
4:46 left, 1st half — Woo! 9-0 run for the South Carolina State Bulldogs means they are up by 9 and I am winning my bet for the first time this evening.
2:35 left, 1st half — Bulldogs up by 10 now. My heart bleeds a bit for DSU. Their gym (as do a lot of low majors) looks like a high school gym, with most of the risers pushed in. I count 9 fans in the portions of the seats I can see, which is more than half the arena.
HALFTIME — 39-33, SCSU. So I'm two-thirds there; I need them to outscore Delaware State by 3 in the second half. It's a big bet and, regardless of Delaware State's suckitude, a bit of a scary proposition — can I really outsmart the linesmakers? While I'm trying to pay close attention to the MEAC, it's not like I'm spending hours a week poring over the numbers.
HALFTIME — Both teams have that enduring HBCU novelty, White Player Who Gets Playing Time. For DSU, it's Zach Kent, a 6'10" center from Magnolia, Delaware, and for South Carolina State, it's also a 6'10" center, Sebastian Guitian from Miami.
HALFTIME — South Carolina State is in Orangeburg, South Carolina, which was the setting for a tragic watershed moment in civil rights: the Orangeburg Massacre.
15:42 left, 2nd half — Delaware State has cut it three, and now both teams have gone cold. SCSU playing sloppy and fouling a lot.
13:40 left 2nd half — SCSU leads 44-43. Delaware State is in the bonus, and SCSU has not hit a field goal this quarter.
9:20 left, 2nd half — DSU now leads 50-49. I don't know better than Vegas.
7:07 left, 2nd half — DSU 54, SCSU 51. You know those Nike warmup/bench shirts that say "just us Cougars" or "just us Aggies" or whatever? South Carolina State has those, except they say "just us SC State." WHAT? Why wouldn't you order "just us Bulldogs" instead of that syntactical nightmare?
5:41 left, 2nd half — DSU 57, SCSU 53. So I need the Bulldogs to go +13 in the last 5:41 in order to win this bet. Not impossible, but not bloody likely. What sucks is that the spread is beyond what SCSU might shoot for in the end. By which I mean, if they end up leading by 7 within five seconds left and the ball, they are not going to shoot.
3:45 left, 2nd half — DSU 59, SCSU 58. If this game is out of reach for my bet (say, SCSU leads by 1, the game's tied, or DSU still leads), I'm switching my allegiance in this game to Delaware State to get their first D1 win of the year.
1:07 left — DSU 62, SCSU 62. It just occurred to me that if this game goes to overtime, my bet has the teensiest glint of hope.
FINAL — SCSU 64, DSU 62 on a layup with 3 seconds left. DSU had a timeout but for some reason didn't take one to set up a final shot.
I file my story chastened and $40 lighter.
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