The Joy of the Unexpected

My favorite NBA season of my adult life to this point was the 2014-15 season. The product on the floor was at a fun evolution point just before the analytics and pace-and-space three-point wave took root across the whole league. In other words, it felt like there was a significant amount of diversity in playing styles from team to team.

But above all else, there were some unexpected things that happened that season to make the regular season enjoyable to follow on a nightly basis.

Above all else, the Warriors became the Warriors with up-tempo play, modern defense that didn't look like what elite teams did before, and lots and lots of outside shooting in a league that had historically been about getting to the rim and bullying people in the post. The Hawks went 60-22 and were undefeated in January 2015 with a ball-sharing roster of no 20 point-per-game scorers in the most superstar-driven of all major sports. Atlanta didn't quite have the postseason glory Golden State did that spring, though.

The Warriors were 28/1 to win the championship in October 2014, and the Hawks were a 125/1 long-shot. But beyond that, the top five title favorites all won fewer games than expected.

As we click past the halfway mark of the 2021-22 regular season, this season is starting to remind me of that one. In no particular order, here are some of my most pleasant surprises of the season to this point.

East Beats West

When was the last time we could definitively say the East was a top-to-bottom better conference than the West? It certainly hasn't been any time this century. The most recent time I could find — judging purely on 82-game records — was in the 1996-97 season when the East had six 50-win teams and three under-.500 teams made the playoffs in the West.

This year, if the season ended Jan. 14, the league-worst-defense Blazers, who have won just five of 19 games since the start of December, would be in the play-in tournament as the West's No. 10 seed. In the East, 11 of 15 teams are at .500 or better, and a team that was two games away from the NBA Finals last year sits in 12th.

Chicago Bulls

I'm a bit more pessimistic about the Bulls' chances of playoff contention after Brooklyn absolutely massacred Chicago at the United Center on Wednesday. Even though the Bulls are 11th in defense for the whole season, they're just 21st in the league over the last 15 games.

But they're 11-4 in those 15 games in large part due to the career-best play of DeMar DeRozan in his 13th season. I love players that go against the grain of league-wide trends, so I've appreciated DeMar from afar during his years in San Antonio, where he became an excellent playmaker to complement his old-school midrange scoring prowess. But this version of him is an MVP candidate.

Let's also not forget how well Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball are shooting and playing. Even if the Bulls aren't on Brooklyn and Milwaukee's level, they're a lot better than the play-in contender team many were expecting in the fall.

Cleveland Cavaliers

If the Bulls were a playoff bubble team before the season, I don't think the Cavs were even thought to be a play-in contender. Darius Garland has made a leap in his third year and Cleveland may have the best rim defense this side of Utah with Jarrett Allen and possible Rookie of the Year Evan Mobley down low. Add in the resurgence of Kevin Love off the bench, and you've got a team that will pass its projected win total of about 26 wins this month.

It feels like a top six seed is the ceiling here after both Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio had season-ending injuries before the new year. My hunch is the Cavs may struggle to score points in the last 41 games, but they're 7th in the league on offense for the last 15 games, which is ahead of vaunted offenses like Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Phoenix over the same span.

Memphis Grizzlies

The baby Grizzlies are here! As of the time I'm writing this, Memphis has won 11 in a row and vaulted up to third in the surprisingly open West. Ja Morant is an MVP candidate and should start the All-Star Game. The Grizzlies' entire team (much less entire rotation) is 28 or younger, and for such a young team, they play remarkably strong defense.

But for me, the joy in watching the Grizzlies play is in how much swagger they have. All of the Grizzlies' young core (Morant, Jaren Jackson, Jr., De'Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks) seem to be comfortable taking any shot at any time in a game — even if Morant is the undisputed athletic freak and alpha dog of the group. In an NBA that has less beef and bad blood than a generation or two ago, I'm hoping that things like Morant jawing at Patrick Beverley from last Thursday are here to stay with this team.

There's every chance that the Finals in June are the same as last year — both the Bucks and Suns appear to be top-three seeds in their respective conferences. And the betting favorite Nets still look deserving of that moniker, despite all of the off-court availability drama. But there's been more surprises than a typical season to this point, and that's a good thing.

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