* If you read/watch/listen to a lot of college football media, then you know a lot of comparisons are being made between this year and 2007, a season so chaotic the LSU won the natty with two losses.
As a card-carrying member of Team Chaos, I am all for this. However, I don't think things are quite as chaotic as they may appear.
Firstly, to the extent things are extra-unpredictable in 2021, you can argue (and indeed, I do argue) that the ultimate unpredictability is who Georgia is going to hammer in the NCG. Does anyone really think they aren't winning it all? Yes, anything can happen, and strong Georgia teams have surprised us with some stinkers in years past, but this is their championship to lose.
Cincinnati, I would wager, is also pretty safe. They will be double-digit favorites the rest of the way out. I keep seeing articles saying that they will be left out if Georgia loses a close game to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game matched with one of the Big Ten heavies running the table, or Oregon doing so, but all of those variables are less likely than the Bearcats winning the rest of their regular season games and the AAC title game.
Also helping Cincinnati is Oklahoma. They have only beaten one FBS team by more than a score, and while quarterback Caleb Williams looked great in that one game, last week's 19-point victory over TCU, they still gave up 31 and they still have games left against Iowa State and at Baylor and Oklahoma State, two teams that have only one loss between them — Baylor's loss TO Oklahoma State. Then there's the Big 12 Championship game. I don't see them making it through that gamut.
* Iowa was a fun Cinderella, but they were never a serious title game contender. What's interesting about Iowa, however, is the extent of which Kirk Ferentz is royalty in Iowa City.
In 22 seasons at the helm of the Hawkeyes, they have finished at 6-3 or worse in conference in 17 of them. He does have two undefeated conference seasons — the first in 2002, and the second in 2015, when they lost the Big Ten title game to Michigan State. They have never finished inside the final top 5 in the final AP or Coaches' poll.
Ferentz succeeded Hayden Fry as Iowa head coach, who in 20 years had one 10-2 year and at least three losses in every other season. He also never finished in the top 5.
What we see here is that for Iowa, pretty good is good enough. Contrast that with LSU, where Ed Orgeron is getting the boot at the end of the season less than two years removed from winning it all.
If LSU AD Scott Woodward is to be believed, this comes down to wins and losses: "We have very high standards for all of our sports programs at LSU, and we will stand proudly behind our expectations of competing for SEC and national championships year in and year out. Our last two seasons have simply not met that standard, and based on our on-field results and our evaluation of the potential for future immediate success, it is time for a new direction."
He says "two years," but really means a year and a half — a year and a half where, to be sure, the Tigers have not competed for the SEC or national crown, but didn't exactly go 2-10, either.
The LSU media seems to largely favor this decision, pointing to some hires and fires that Orgeron made that haven't panned out, as well as some schematic mistakes.
So which is a more appropriate expectation for a Power Five fan base and an athletics department — that of Iowa or that of LSU? They are dealing with similar athletic department revenues.
In the end, I think the answer lies somewhere in between the two extremes, but I'm a little bit closer in outlook to Iowa's. Most notably, only one team can win a national championship each year. Secondly, in order to get to a place where Alabama/Oklahoma/Clemson/Ohio State find themselves, you need stability. Saying, "you've sucked too much lately" less than 24 months after winning a natty is not stability.
* My favorite bet of the week: Purdue +3 over Wisconsin.
I'm not saying Purdue is elite. I am also not saying that they aren't capable of letdown just like Iowa experienced against these Boilermakers. I am saying, however, that they are at home, they beat not only Iowa, but an Oregon State team that is making noise in the Pac-12 North, and I feel like Wisconsin is getting vestigial credit for years past — they looked quite unconvincing in their 20-14 win over Army this past Saturday. Love Purdue in this spot.
Leave a Comment