Over the next several paragraphs, I'll explain why I rated teams where I did. If you don't care about the methodology, by all means skip ahead.
I'm an NFL writer, and I don't follow college football closely enough to make insightful judgments about which players are and are not likely to succeed at the pro level. Instead, for each team, I'm looking at two fundamental goals: [1] Did the team get good value for its picks, and [2] Did those picks fill needs?
I'm looking for teams that addressed their needs without reaching for lesser talent, made profitable trades, and selected highly-rated players long after we thought they'd be off the board. Conversely, even if you got good players, taking someone who probably would have been available a round later — I don't see that as a good pick. Most drafts are close to average, so not every team is listed.
2016 Draft Winners
* Jacksonville Jaguars — Jalen Ramsey was probably the best pick of the first round: a great athlete, a great college player, and a huge need for their defense. In the second round, they traded up to get Myles Jack. There's some injury concern, obviously, but he's a tremendous talent, and they only gave up a 5th-round pick to move up. Six of their seven picks were on defense, which makes sense. I would have liked to see them take another DB at some point. Dexter Fowler should be healthy this year, but they spent two of their first four choices on defensive linemen.
* Blockbuster trades — I love draft trades, especially day-of trades. There were seven trades involving 1st-round picks, including four on Thursday. That makes the draft a lot more interesting, and it makes sense for teams to maneuever into position for the players they want, rather than just selecting "best available" or reaching for needs.
* Houston Texans — Used two of their first three picks on wide receivers. If Will Fuller or Braxton Miller (the former quarterback and two-time Big Ten MVP) turns into a legit threat across from DeAndre Hopkins, they will be very hard to defend. The Texans go into 2016 with unproven quarterbacks, and so many teams make the mistake of constantly looking for new QBs, without giving them the tools to succeed. Houston drafted a pair of receivers and an offensive lineman, so they're sensitive that they need to supply their passers with pass protection and playmaking targets.
* Minnesota Vikings — Addressed some needs in free agency, so a wide receiver made perfect sense in the 1st round, and they got Laquon Treadwell. Sixth-round choice Moritz Boehringer, from the German Football League's Schwäbisch Hall Unicorns, was an intriguing selection. Eight slots later, they traded up for TE David Morgan. NFC North title notwithstanding, Teddy Bridgewater had a disappointing 2015 season, and the Vikings are getting him some new targets.
Second-round pick Mackensie Alexander, 54th overall, was projected to go higher. That's a nice value, and a position (CB) it made sense to target. The only Viking who had more than 2 interceptions last season (Terence Newman) will be 38 by opening day.
* Quarterbacks — For the second year in a row, and the third time in five years, quarterbacks went 1-2 in the NFL draft. Three quarterbacks were chosen in the first round, and seven in the first 100 picks.
* Cleveland Browns — Fourteen selections in the draft, including three 3rd-rounders, four 4th-rounders, and four 5th-rounders. They'll also have extra 1st- and 2nd-round picks next year, and an extra 2nd-rounder in 2018, because of outrageous trades by the Eagles and Titans. The Browns are winners mostly just on volume. Baylor WR Corey Coleman made sense in the 1st round, but he might have been a reach at 15, and I wish they had taken a safety earlier.
* Green Bay Packers — Filled holes. UCLA DT Kenny Clark should step in for B.J. Raji, and they traded up for offensive lineman Jason Spriggs in the 2nd round, before choosing linebackers in the 3rd and 4th. I might have liked to see them target a wide receiver, since no one could get open the second half of the season, but it's hard to argue with the picks they made. This is a classic Packers draft: focused, not flashy.
* Indianapolis Colts — Targeted the right positions and got some highly rated players who slipped. Ryan Kelly was seen as the best center in the draft, and they got OT Le'Raven Clark, projected as a top-50 pick, 82nd. T.J. Green has rare speed for his size, and the Colts needed to draft a DB who can contribute right away. Texas DT Hassan Ridgeway could be a steal in the 4th round.
* Ohio State Buckeyes — Five players selected in the first round, including two of the top four and three of the top 10.
* Detroit Lions — With Calvin Johnson retiring, I'm surprised they didn't take a wide receiver. But I like their first two picks, offensive tackle Taylor Decker and defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson, who could be a great value in the middle of the 2nd round. They drafted three offensive linemen, which was probably smart.
* Cincinnati Bengals — Really addressed their needs, beginning with cornerback William Jackson III 24th overall. They also took two wide receivers, a linebacker, and Baylor DT Andrew Billings, who slipped into the 4th round. He's seen as the eventual heir to Domata Peko.
* Defensive linemen — Seven first-round selections and 10 more in the second round. That's 17 of the first 63 players chosen, more than 25%.
* Miami Dolphins — Traded down in the first round, getting Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell, and still drafted the top-rated player on many boards, Mississippi tackle Laremy Tunsil. I understand that Tunsil is a risk, but the Dolphins have to see that as an unbelievable win: if they were willing to take Tunsil 8th overall, they basically got Alonso and Maxwell for free.
They traded up to get CB Xavien Howard (38th overall), WR Leonte Carroo (86th) and 5'6" WR-RS Jakeem Grant (186th). Seventh-round choice Thomas Duarte is an undersized receiving TE, but he showed great speed and athleticism at the NFL combine. Grant and Duarte were smart gambles late in the draft, where it makes sense to chase upside.
Question Marks
* Denver Broncos — I don't know if a defending Super Bowl champion has ever had so many needs. They traded up to get QB Paxton Lynch 26th overall, losing a 3rd-round choice in the process. They used their next two picks on a defensive lineman (Adam Gotsis) and a safety (Justin Simmons). That makes sense, but Gotsis was projected to be available later, and Lynch is going to get killed behind their offensive line.
* Baltimore Ravens — Eleven draft picks, all in the first six rounds. They had five 4th-round selections. It's encouraging to see a team acquire so many non-trivial picks, but I'm also astonished that the Ravens didn't use any of those 11 choices on an inside linebacker.
* New Orleans Saints — Louisville DT Sheldon Rankins makes sense for a team with the worst defense in the NFL. And Ohio State WR Michael Thomas makes sense for a team that lost Marques Colston and Ben Watson. They traded up for safety Vonn Bell and DT David Onyemata. But their top priority should have been cornerback, and they didn't draft one. Expect their defense to be terrible again in 2016.
* Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Traded down from 9th to 11th and still got Vernon Hargreaves, whom they probably would have taken 9th. They chose Northwestern FB/TE Dan Vitale, who showed exceptional athletic skill at the Combine, in the 6th round.
But the Bucs also traded up to draft a kicker, Roberto Aguayo, in the 2nd round. I believe special teams is consistently underrated, but taking a kicker that early is very aggressive. No other kickers were even drafted, so Tampa could have gotten the second-best kicker available — someone like Lou Groza Award winner Ka'imi Fairbairn — without spending a draft choice, to say nothing of trading up and using a high pick. They also used two of their first four picks on cornerbacks, after signing Brent Grimes in free agency, which seems redundant. They may regret not addressing their offense before the 5th round.
* Oakland Raiders — West Virginia safety Karl Joseph made sense in the 1st round, to replace the retiring Charles Woodson, though Joseph was expected to go later. They followed that up with 300-lb defensive lineman Jihad Ward and 250-lb defensive lineman Shilique Calhoun. Putting a complementary pass rusher across the formation from Khalil Mack seems very smart. They traded up for QB Connor Cook. That's surprising after Derek Carr played well in 2015, but I guess they view Cook as a quality backup, and maybe someone they can trade for value down the line. I think trading up for Cook, whom they hope won't have to play, is what strikes me as odd. Guard Vadal Alexander, whom they chose in the 7th round, was projected to go much higher, a nice value late in the draft.
* Washington — I like the players they drafted, but they missed some needs. Washington desperately needed depth on the defensive line, and didn't address that until the 5th round. The team needed to draft a safety, and didn't. I would have liked to see an offensive lineman, but that didn't happen.
That said, WR Josh Doctson is a great fit, and Su'a Cravens has drawn comparisons to Deone Bucannon and Lavonte David. He's a tweener, but if the coaches can figure out how to use him, Cravens could become a dynamic playmaker. The team addressed its cornerback need in free agency, but that's been such a weak point in recent years, I like CB Kendall Fuller in the 3rd.
* Tennessee Titans — Hit a gold mine when they traded out of the top pick, but [1] gave some of that back when they traded up from 15th to 8th, and [2] spent too many early picks on defense.
The Titans had three 2nd-round picks, and spent them on two defensive linemen and a running back. Tennessee's defense was okay last year, and the team acquired DeMarco Murray in the offseason. They should have drafted at least one receiver, and probably another offensive lineman, in that trio. Only the eternal idiocy of teams trading a fortune to draft QBs saved Tennessee from the losers list. Maybe they got great players, but I don't see that the Titans addressed their needs.
2016 Draft Losers
* Los Angeles Rams — They're never going to get better. Once we sort through some late-round even-up picks, their trade into the top draft pick cost this year's first pick, next year's first pick, two second-round picks, and a third-round pick. Is Jared Goff worth two firsts, two seconds, and a third? Even if he might be, who's he going to throw to? The Rams think all their quarterbacks fail because the QBs aren't any good. I think all their quarterbacks fail because their offensive line sucks and they don't have receivers who get open.
* Philadelphia Eagles — Here's what they gave up to draft Carson Wentz: their first-round pick (13th), third-round pick, and fourth-round pick, their first pick next year, their second pick in 2018, Kiko Alonso, and Byron Maxwell. They also got the Browns' fourth-round pick in 2017. Essentially, that's two firsts, a third, a starting cornerback, a 25-year-old who was second in 2013 Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and a second-round choice down the line. If Wentz isn't a Hall of Famer, this was a terrible trade. Frankly, it was idiotic.
They were already missing their 2nd-round pick because of the Sam Bradford trade last year, which — I didn't realize this was possible — looks even dumber now that they've given up a fortune to draft Wentz. Philadelphia did little to address holes at running back and linebacker.
* Laremy Tunsil — The bong and gas mask video, and Tunsil's slide out of the top 10, is fascinating in a tabloid kind of way. Whoever released that video obviously wanted to damage Tunsil's draft status, and certainly succeeded.
* New England Patriots — No 1st round pick because of Deflategate, but thanks to a trade and a compensatory selection, they had three 3rd-round choices. They used one of those on N.C. State quarterback Jacoby Brissett. I know Tom Brady is suspended for the first four games, but: [1] Brady played at all-pro level last year, and [2] this is the second time in three seasons they've used an early draft pick on a QB. I don't understand a team in win-now mode, a team that went 12-4 and reached the AFC Championship Game, using a 3rd-round pick on a player they hope won't see the field for at least two years, especially when that's redundant with a recent pick at the same position.
The Patriots also drafted Nebraska DT Vincent Valentine in the 3rd round, a surprising selection for a guy who probably would have been available later.
* Oklahoma Sooners — Only one player chosen in the first two days of the draft: Sterling Shepard, 40th overall. Only four Sooners were drafted at all, with players like Dominique Alexander and Eric Striker getting passed by entirely.
* New York Giants — I actually don't hate their draft, but Eli Apple in the 1st round was a surprising, confusing selection. Ralph Vacchiano suggested before the draft that the Giants were likely to use their pick, 10th overall, on Leonard Floyd or Jack Conklin. But the Titans traded up for Conklin (8th) and the Bears traded up for Floyd (9th). A source told Vacchiano that the team would be "very surprised" if both players were gone. It's not apparent that there was a Plan B.
Cornerback was a surprising first pick after the team gave Janoris Jenkins a 5-year, $62.5-million contract in free agency, and the Giants evidently weren't sold on Vernon Hargreaves, a more highly-rated CB than Apple, who went 11th.
But when they missed out on Floyd and Conklin, the obvious play was to trade down, since Apple was projected as a late 1st-rounder. He likely would have been available 10 spots later, and the Giants probably could have added at least a 3rd-round pick by trading down. But — hat tip to Vacchiano — the Giants have never traded down in any round since Jerry Reese took over as GM in 2007. That's incredible. And frankly, it's foolish. If you like a player more than anyone else does — as appears to have been the case with Apple — it makes sense to add value before picking him.
It's hard to believe a professional operation would panic when their top two picks weren't available. I wonder if Laremy Tunsil's freefall disrupted their plan. The idea was that if Floyd and Conklin were both gone at 10, then someone like Joey Bosa or Ezekiel Elliott had fallen into their laps. Instead, that player was Tunsil, and evidently the Giants weren't willing to gamble on him after the Twitter/Instagram fiasco on Thursday. I'm not trying to slam Eli Apple, but it looks like the Giants missed the players they really wanted, and it's hard to see this selection as a good value. I generally liked the rest of their draft.
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