The 2016 NFL Draft begins this week, and many journalists (including this one) will pass judgment afterwards, issuing grades and critiquing picks and trades — all of it based on educated guesses, sometimes not even all that educated.
Before I try to evaluate the new draft, I'm tackling a project I can handle with more confidence: grading the 2006 NFL Draft. This was a highly-anticipated draft, with Houston shocking many fans by choosing Mario Williams ahead of Reggie Bush and Vince Young. This draft hasn't produced a star quarterback, but it did include wide receiver Brandon Marshall, and a number of very successful offensive and defensive linemen, including Nick Mangold, Jahri Evans, Haloti Ngata, Elvis Dumervil, and of course, Mario Williams. Many of the best players are still active, but we've got a good sense at this point for which teams did well in '06, and which ones did not.
A+
New Orleans Saints
The Saints drafted six players who have played over 100 games in the NFL. First-round pick Reggie Bush, chosen second overall, was a disappointment after the enormous hype that followed him from USC. But 10 years into his career, Bush has 9,767 net yards, 35 rushing touchdowns, 18 receiving touchdowns, and 4 punt return touchdowns. He had two 1,000-yard rushing seasons, and he's one of the most accomplished receiving RBs of this era. Only about half his career was played with the Saints, but he wasn't a bust. He's been a pretty good player for a decade, and he's still in the league.
The Saints also drafted two-time Pro Bowl safety Roman Harper, and six-time Pro Bowler Jahri Evans, who might be a future Hall of Famer. Sixth-round pick Zach Strief is a five-year starter for an offense that consistently ranks among the league leaders. He started 15 games in 2015. Rob Ninkovich, drafted 135th overall, never played for the Saints, but he became a key piece of the Patriots' defensive line.
Other than Evans, though, the real prize is probably a receiver chosen out of Hofstra in the 7th round. Marques Colston has six 1,000-yard receiving seasons and 72 career TDs. His career appears to be winding down, but he's been a key to the team's offense for a decade. Along with the acquisition of Drew Brees and the hiring of head coach Sean Payton, this draft totally turned around a franchise that had struggled badly through most of its history.
A
Cincinnati Bengals
Their 2nd-round selection, Andrew Whitworth, has been one of the NFL's best tackles for the last decade. First-round choice Johnathan Joseph was a success, too: he had 14 interceptions and 4 return TDs in five years, then signed with the Houston Texans, where he's started 76 games and made two Pro Bowls. The Bengals also drafted defensive linemen Frostee Rucker and Domata Peko.
Denver Broncos
Drafted frenemies Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Cutler is still a starter in the NFL, and showed enough early promise to return a ransom in trade from the Bears. Marshall had three straight 100-catch seasons, then he was traded as well.
Essentially, the Broncos got seven good seasons out of Cutler and Marshall, then traded them for two 1st-round picks, two 2nd-round picks, a 3rd-round pick, and a veteran quarterback (Kyle Orton). Their draft also produced five-time Pro Bowler Elvis Dumervil, five-year starter Chris Kuper, and tight end Tony Scheffler.
Houston Texans
Drafted three players who made multiple Pro Bowls: Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Owen Daniels. Williams has 96 career sacks, 53 of them with Houston. Ryans was Defensive Rookie of the Year, and made the Pro Bowl two of the next four seasons, before injuries became a problem. Daniels had four 50-reception seasons in eight years with the Texans, and played for the world champion Denver Broncos in 2015. Offensive tackle Eric Winston was also in this draft.
New York Jets
Used their first two picks on offensive linemen D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, who have made a combined 10 Pro Bowls, and both of whom started for the Jets in 2015. Defensive back Eric Smith, returner and former Mizzou quarterback Brad Smith, and RB/KR Leon Washington were also part of this draft class. Washington, one of the greatest kickoff returners of all time, was the best of the non-linemen. He also rushed for 650 yards as a rookie.
The draft picks of the Jets and Broncos have combined for 12 Pro Bowls each, most of any teams in this draft.
B+
Baltimore Ravens
Hit a bullseye with first-round selection Haloti Ngata, a five-time Pro Bowler in nine seasons with the Ravens. Their next-best player from this draft might be a sixth-round choice, punter Sam Koch, who is among the best at his position in the NFL. This draft also included guard Chris Chester and safety Dawan Landry.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers had 11 picks in the draft — for the second year in a row — the most of any team in 2006. While those picks didn't produce any superstars, they provided the Packers with a lot of solid players. Ten of their 11 selections appeared in a regular-season game. The most successful were middle linebacker A.J. Hawk, offensive lineman Daryn Colledge, wide receiver Greg Jennings, and defensive lineman Johnny Jolly. Hawk and Colledge are both 10-year starters, most of them (9 for Hawk, 5 for Colledge) with Green Bay. Jennings had three 1,000-yard seasons, made two Pro Bowls, and caught Brett Favre's record-breaking 421st touchdown pass. Jason Spitz and Will Blackmon were also part of this draft class.
San Diego Chargers
Succeeded with both of their top picks, cornerback Antonio Cromartie and offensive tackle Marcus McNeill. Sixth-rounder Jeromey Clary started 93 games for the Chargers before his retirement in 2014. Clemson quarterback Charlie Whitehurst, chosen in the 3rd round, is still active. He played in four games for the Colts in 2015.
B
Jacksonville Jaguars
Their first pick, tight end Marcedes Lewis, was a good player. Their second choice, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, was a great player. Lewis has over 4,000 receiving yards, made the Pro Bowl in 2010, and started every game for the Jaguars in 2015. Jones-Drew is out of the league now, but he rushed for 1,300 yards three times and scored 81 TDs. Third-round linebacker Clint Ingram was productive for a few seasons.
B-
Buffalo Bills
Best selection, by far, was in the 5th round, 134th overall, when they took LSU defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Ten years later, he's still a key player on their defensive line. Williams has made four Pro Bowls, which is unusual for a player with low sack totals, and speaks to how highly he's regarded. First-round pick Donte Whitner has made three Pro Bowls, but all with other teams. He was a five-year starter in Buffalo, though, not a bust. Fellow first-rounder John McCargo — they traded up to get him 26th overall — was a bust. Linebacker Keith Ellison was okay for a couple of years.
Chicago Bears
Traded out of the first round, turning that pick into 2nd-rounder Danieal Manning and 3rd-round pick Dusty Dvoracek. Manning was okay, but Dvoracek was a flameout. Chicago's most significant choices in this draft were their own 2nd-round pick, Devin Hester, and 5th-round selection Mark Anderson. Hester is probably the greatest punt returner of all time, a three-time all-pro. Anderson had double-digit sacks as a rookie, helping the Bears reach Super Bowl XLI, and had double-digit sacks again with the Patriots in 2011, helping them reach Super Bowl XLVI.
Indianapolis Colts
Joseph Addai flamed out quickly, but he was good player for a few years. Addai had two 1,000-yard rushing seasons, two years with double-digit TDs, he made a Pro Bowl, and he easily could have won MVP of Super Bowl XLI (143 yards from scrimmage). Defensive back Tim Jennings, chosen in the second round, became a good player with the Bears. Sixth-round picks Charlie Johnson and Antoine Bethea both became valuable players.
Kansas City Chiefs
Tamba Hali, whom they chose 20th overall, has been everything they hoped for. A five-time Pro Bowler, he's been a starter since Day One — 10 years now — and has 86 career sacks. Safety Bernard Pollard has personally cost the Patriots a couple of championships. The rest of their draft was unremarkable.
Minnesota Vikings
First round choice Chad Greenway made two Pro Bowls, and probably should have made more. Ray Edwards started on a defensive line that — for a couple years — was probably the best in the league. Defensive back Cedric Griffin, offensive lineman Ryan Cook, and quarterback Tarvaris Jackson also made some contributions.
Tennessee Titans
Vince Young won Offensive Rookie of the Year and made two Pro Bowls. He was an up-and-down player, who did some really good things for the Titans, but he was frustrating because he was inconsistent and unreliable. Their second choice, LenDale White, was also inconsistent and unreliable, but without Young's upside. They found two good defensive players late in the draft, linebacker Stephen Tulloch (116th) and cornerback Cortland Finnegan (215th).
C+
San Francisco 49ers
They chose Vernon Davis 6th overall. He's played outstanding at times, but inconsistently. Davis has 2 Pro Bowls and 55 receiving TDs to his credit, and he was a good blocker. The rest of their draft was disappointing. They traded up to get Manny Lawson 22nd overall. Lawson was fine, and he's still in the league — he started for the Bills in 2015 — but he left San Francisco before the Niners got good. Parys Haralson started for a while, and Delanie Walker became a good tight end with the Titans.
C
Carolina Panthers
This is weird. The Panthers drafted five players who have appeared in 100 regular-season games. That's terrific. But those five players are: DeAngelo Williams, Richard Marshall, James Anderson, Jeff King, and Will Montgomery. Williams is the only Pro Bowler in the group, a genuine star with nearly 10,000 yards from scrimmage, probably one of the top 100 RBs in NFL history. But the other four are pretty low-profile. You could be forgiven for not recognizing their names.
Anderson and Montgomery were both active in 2015. Other than Williams, Anderson is the biggest name from Carolina's draft class. A sideline-to-sideline linebacker, he had very good seasons in 2010 and '11, and in 2013 with the Bears. Montgomery was a serviceable center and guard. He only played one year for Carolina, but started every game for Washington from 2011-13.
Cleveland Browns
Their first two picks, Kamerion Wimbley and D'Qwell Jackson, were both successful. Wimbley had 26.5 of his 53.5 career sacks with Cleveland, including 11 as a rookie. Jackson is a Pro Bowler, one of the finest inside linebackers of his generation. The rest of their draft was a washout.
C-
New York Giants
Used six of their seven picks on defense, and got two good players, pass rusher Mathias Kiwanuka and defensive tackle Barry Cofield. Their one offensive selection, WR Sinorice Moss, only had 421 receiving yards in his career.
Philadelphia Eagles
Only one of their eight picks, wide receiver Jason Avant, was still active in 2015. But they also chose several players who were decent starters for a few years. Brodrick Bunkley started 52 games for the Eagles, before spending four years as (mostly) a starter for the Broncos and Saints. Winston Justice, Chris Gocong, and Omar Gaither were also part of this draft class. So was University of Colorado skier-football player Jeremy Bloom, who never appeared in a regular-season NFL game.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Drafted Santonio Holmes 25th overall, and he became MVP of Super Bowl XLIII. They also got Willie Colon out of Hofstra in the 4th round — this was a weirdly productive draft for Hofstra — but that was pretty much it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You know how stores price their items at $199.95, so it seems like you're not paying $200? There's that psychological gap when the price begins with a one. I gave the Bucs and Giants a C- because it seems nicer than D+. D-plus seems mean, but C-minus isn't so bad.
Tampa drafted Davin Joseph, a two-time Pro Bowl guard, in the 1st round. They took another lineman, Jeremy Trueblood, in the 2nd round. He played in 116 games, but not especially well. Third-rounder Maurice Stovall lasted seven seasons as a backup and special teamer, and quarterback Bruce Gradkowski (6th round, 194th overall) hung around the league for nine seasons, mostly as backup. Davin Joseph, a mediocre offensive tackle, and a couple of backups. Is that even worth a C-? I'm not sure, but it seems kinder than a D+.
D+
Dallas Cowboys
Anthony Fasano and Jason Hatcher were still in the NFL in 2015. Hatcher was a backup for five years before he cracked the starting lineup in 2011. He made the Pro Bowl in 2013, and has 27.5 sacks in the last five seasons, good numbers for an interior lineman. Fasano's career is steadier; he's more of a role player. Their first-round choice, Bobby Carpenter, never became a regular starter.
New England Patriots
Special teamers aren't usually drafted, but the Patriots spent a 4th-round choice on Memphis kicker Stephen Gostkowski, probably the best placekicker of his generation. The rest of their draft, featuring early picks like RB Laurence Maroney, WR Chad Jackson, and TE David Thomas, was not productive.
Oakland Raiders
Their first two selections, safety Michael Huff and linebacker Thomas Howard, both worked out okay. Howard started at least 15 games five times (including once with the Bengals), and he intercepted six passes in 2007. He died in a car crash in November 2013.
Paul McQuistan and Kevin Boothe appeared in a combined 211 regular-season games, but mostly with other teams.
D
Arizona Cardinals
Matt Leinart has been out of football for a few years now, but I still think there's a chance that, if a few things had broken differently, he could have become a solid NFL quarterback. Leinart played about as well, in 2006, as Kurt Warner did. Warner had a better passer rating, but Leinart had fewer sacks, fewer fumbles, and better rushing. He won the starting job going into 2007, but Warner's renaissance put Leinart on the bench during the years he should have been developing, and he got tagged as a bust, which might not have been entirely fair. He hung around the league as a backup for a while, but his career never got back on track.
Guard Deuce Lutui, chosen 41st overall, was their most successful pick in this draft. Leonard Pope, Gabe Watson, and Brandon Johnson all stuck in the league for a few years, but their impact was pretty minimal.
Seattle Seahawks
Their first pick, defensive back Kelly Jennings, intercepted two passes in his NFL career. Second-rounder Darryl Tapp was probably the best player from their draft, but he was only a starter for two seasons. He played 16 games for the Lions in 2015, but as a role player, not a starter. Seattle's draft also included guard Rob Sims, punter Ryan Plackemeier, and receiver Ben Obomanu.
Washington
There's an argument for ranking them higher, since they were short on draft picks, due to the Jason Campbell trade the year before. But this simply wasn't a productive draft. They traded up (again) to get linebacker Rocky McIntosh in the 2nd round, giving up two 2nd-round picks and a 6th-rounder in the process. McIntosh mostly played special teams. Safety Reed Doughty appeared in over 100 games, but largely because Washington's defensive backfield was so bad that it needed warm bodies. Defensive tackle Kedric Golston, still with the team today, was the best player they drafted.
D-
Atlanta Falcons
Didn't have a first-round selection, and none of their draft picks ever became regular starters. Jerious Norwood was a decent third-down back for a few years, and I guess that's enough to avoid an F.
Detroit Lions
Only drafted two players who were still in the league three years later: linebacker Ernie Sims and offensive lineman Jonathan Scott. Sims was the Lions' best defensive player when they had the worst defense in the NFL. He was the second-leading tackler on the team that went 0-16. Scott was an off-and-on starter for the Bills, Steelers, and Bears from 2009-12.
F
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins went 1-15 in 2007, and this draft was part of the problem. Miami drafted three players who appeared in at least 90 games, which sounds good. Those players were Jason Allen, Derek Hagan, and Fred Evans. The best-known player from their draft is probably wide receiver Devin Aromashodu, who made some plays for the Bears in 2009.
St. Louis Rams
Drafted 10 players, all of whom played in the NFL. Unfortunately, none of them became successful players. Of those 10 players, the only one to appear in at least 50 games was defensive end Victor Adeyanju. He lasted four seasons and retired with 3 sacks. First-round selection Tye Hill dropped out of the league after making 25 starts in five years.
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