The Race for NL Rookie of the Year

No one has ever won the Rookie of the Year based on a spring training performance, but Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant came about as close as any player in recent memory. He was like the pretty girl in your high school senior class — you felt like Prom Queen was locked up in the first month.

Slugging 9 home runs in a mere 29 at-bats, he even got the MLBPA to file a grievance on his behalf over the fact that the Cubs sent him to AAA for more defensive seasoning (translate: to gain one extra year of control thanks to the collective bargaining agreement).

By the time he finally got the call-up in mid-April, it appeared as though all of the hullaballoo was justified. According to FanGraphs, James Shields of the San Diego Padres only offered 2 expected strikes out of 16 total pitches. It led to an 0-for-4 day with 3 strikeouts, but it gave fans insight as to just how good the kid might be. What rookie gets pitched more carefully than Mike Trout? Bryant heated up and eventually made his first all-star team.

Then reality set in. Over the course of July and early August, Bryant had a 29-game stretch in which he hit a paltry .129 with only 3 home runs, 11 RBI, and strikeouts in more than half of his 79 at-bats. It looked like the league had finally figured out the young power hitter.

This is where things got muddled. Several other candidates jumped into the race, realizing the expected Prom Queen was vulnerable. Truthfully, some had been doing that dirty work since April without notice. And right now, it's hard to distinguish whose award this really is.

So let's take a blind look at the statistics as of August 13 to see who is the front-runner for the coveted award. First, we will put the traditional statistics of the league's best rookies in the same space, analyze who is winning that battle, and then we will look at what Cubs manager Joe Maddon calls the "nerd" statistics — a.k.a. advanced metrics. What we will find is that many rookies are staking their claim in different ways.

(Note: Only one pitcher is in this conversation — Noah Syndergaard — but his numbers, apart from WHIP, do not even lead NL rookie pitchers. For that purpose, I will assume that an offensive player is going to win this award and not include pitchers.)

States Presented: AVG / HR / RBI / BB / K / AB / R / OBP
Player A: .296 / 9 / 40 / 22 / 69 / 307 / 42 / .371
Player B: .304 / 9 / 51 / 16 / 65 / 369 / 48 / .340
Player C: .249 / 16 / 66* / 60 / 135 / 373 / 60* / .360
Player D: .219 / 21* / 43 / 71* / 134 / 374* / 55 / .356
Player E: .282 / 14 / 43 / 16 / 93 / 277 / 42 / .327
Player F: .313* / 6 / 21 / 13 / 30 / 99 / 24 / .404*

Based solely on traditional numbers, it is hard to tell who is rising above the pack. Players A and B do not lead rookies in any traditional statistic, nor does Player E, but their balance is hard to deny. They sport three of the top four batting averages on the list, the lowest strikeout totals per plate appearance, and respectable RBI numbers. Player C leads in runs scored and runs batted in, but has a whopping 135 strikeouts. Player D leads in home runs, but the .219 batting average is seemingly too low to merit the award — speaking strictly from a historical standpoint. Lastly, Player F simply hasn't played enough to leap frog any of his opponents, despite some appealing early returns.

Maybe the "nerd" stats can separate the men from the boys:

Stats Presented: OPS / WAA (wins above average) / oWAR (offensive wins above replacement) / dWAR (defensive wins above replacement) / WAR (total wins above replacement)

Player A: .830 / 2.8* / 3.0 / 1.2* / 3.9*
Player B: .798 / 2.4 / 3.4 / 0.4 / 3.7
Player C: .807 / 1.9 / 3.5* / ?0.1 / 3.3
Player D: .797 / 0.9 / 2.6 / 0.0 / 2.4
Player E: .883 / 1.8 / 2.3 / 0.2 / 2.7
Player F: .959* / 0.9 / 1.3 / 0.0 / 1.3
Player G: 2.87 FIP / 1.12 WHIP / 1.0 WAA / 1.7 WAR

Thanks for nothing, statistics.

Once again, we are largely left with a draw. One thing to note in this case, however, is that Player A — one of the most balanced in the group — rises to the top in some key areas. Namely, he leads NL rookies in WAR at 3.9 and his defense is decidedly better than the competition. This is especially important when comparing him to Player B, who lead him in every traditional measure apart from OBP. This advantage in advanced metrics for Player A may be in large part due to one fact: he is a shortstop.

While Player F rounds out the leader board by leading in OPS, a lack of service time is probably going to be too much to overcome. Barring an insane run of success to close out the season, I cannot imagine he will be in the discussion come October.

As you can tell, there simply is not a front-runner for the award. Based on statistics alone, not a single player rises above the competition. Ultimately, it will come down to how the voters define "Rookie of the Year."

If Rookie of the Year is "Most Valuable Rookie," my vote goes to Player A — Jung Ho Kang of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has stepped onto a team that was expected to contend and has not disappointed, despite significant injuries. After losing starting third baseman Josh Harrison early in the campaign, shortstop Jordy Mercer had a nasty injury that took him out of the lineup. Without Kang, would the Pirates be where they are? The advanced metrics indicate that, yes, they would still be contending. However, without his 3.9 wins above replacement, they would be sitting a mere 1.5 games ahead of San Francisco for the second spot, behind the Chicago Cubs. Kang has certainly made a difference.

If Rookie of the Year is "Most Balanced Rookie," Player B takes home the loot — Matt Duffy of the San Francisco Giants. In year's past, the fact that he leads Kang in average and RBI would be reason enough to send the trophy to the Bay. However, the modern game's embracing of stats more indicative of team wins puts him in a difficult spot — mainly because his team just isn't as good as Kang's.

If Rookie of the Year is "Most Promising Rookie," my vote goes to Player C — Kris Bryant. Without his terrible July, his statistics would undoubtedly look better. His batting average alone would be up nearly 30 points. However, his true value has come in what he has achieved through his presence and through the eye test. In addition to directly creating the most runs out of all rookies (R and RBI), he also stepped into the middle of a youth-filled lineup and was expected to contribute immediately. He had pressure like few of these other rookies and has largely stepped up to the challenge. Being one of four rookies in the Cubs' lineup, the team has finally started to put it together, winning 12 of their last 13 and surging up in the standings to a 4.5-game lead for the second wild card — only 1.5 games behind their division rival Pirates for the first slot. Bryant looks like he's back, too, currently in a 9-game hitting streak (his third of such length this season) with a stellar August OPS of .998. If he keeps up this pace, separation may be imminent.

If Rookie of the Year is "Most Surprising Rookie," you go with Player E — Randall Grichuk of the St. Louis Cardinals. Not even expected to start this year, he has taken over for the injured Matt Holliday and frustrated the NL Central by being nearly as good. His 14 home runs and 2.7 WAR in fewer games and at-bats than some of his peers make his numbers look less impressive than they really are. Extrapolating those numbers over another hundred or so at-bats (to even the score with Bryant/Kang), he would have close to 20 HR and a WAR bordering 4.0. Tough to discount his claim to the award.

There are reasons to give the Player D, Joc Pederson of the Los Angeles Dodgers whose mammoth homers have wowed spectators at Chavez Ravine; even Player F, Kyle Schwarber of the Chicago Cubs has a 1.3 WAR, which extrapolates to over 5.0 if he had played the same amount of games as Bryant. It is almost absurd how close this race is when you split the hairs.

Ultimately, the hope is that one of these rookies separates himself over the last month and a half of baseball, but if the rest of the season is any indication, it won't happen.

So that leaves us with two final questions: who should get the award and who will get the award?

My answer to those questions as of right now: Jung Ho Kang and Kris Bryant. When it's too tough to separate on field performance, I trust the advanced metrics. Kang wins.

But Kris Bryant is still the prettiest girl at the prom — and I think the voters will overlook his flaws.

Get back to me in mid-September, though. I'll almost surely feel differently.