If you learn nothing else, sports is a world full of trends. From the spread offense, to one-and-dones, to defensive shifts, people in their respective games try to gleam success from the the latest and greatest. Sometimes, though, trends develop where you'd least expect them.
In Toronto, baseball fans have been waiting for the Blue Jays to trend in the same way that their beloved Raptors have on the basketball court. The Jays have not only stayed mired behind New York and Boston for years, they've also seen Tampa Bay and Baltimore fly past them in terms of pedigree and prestige. It seems to have led to a tipping point, and the organization's front office decided to throw caution to the wind. Three days before the MLB non-waiver trade deadline, they made a curious swap at shortstop. In exchange for Jose Reyes, the Jays received Troy Tulowitzki. Then, two days later, another move brought ace pitcher David Price up Ontario Highway 401 from Detroit. The activity continued right up to the July 31st deadline, with reliever Mark Lowe and outfielder Ben Revere making plans to reside north of the border for the rest of the season.
For the Blue Jays, the moves were a hope to provide something that never developed over the last two-plus seasons. The franchise has made moves since the end of the 2012 season. The front office made a big splash, acquiring shortstop Jose Reyes and pitcher Mark Buehrle as the key pieces in a blockbuster trade with Miami. Even with those additions (and the free agent signing of R.A. Dickey), 2013 sported the massive disappointment of a 74-88 record. Last season saw improvement, but 83-79 wasn't enough to get them past the final day of the regular season.
This season appeared to be headed in the same direction. At the moment of the news that Tulowitzki was headed north of the border, the Jays' scale was dead even. Through 100 games, the squad sat at 50-50, good enough to be seven back of the AL East-leading Yankees and three back of the second AL wild card spot. Somehow, inserting Tulo (and, later, Revere) into the lineup and, subsequently, Price into the starting rotation has provided the spark of confidence that somehow hasn't developed since the beginning of 2013. After a weekend sweep of the Bronx Bombers, Toronto sits 1.5 games back in the East and and ahead of the fray in the Wild Card race (in the first position, 3 up on the outside contenders).
We all knew that the Blue Jays were impressive from an offensive standpoint. After Sunday's action, only two teams have scored more than 500 runs this season. While the Yankees and Jays have given up the same amount of runs (468), Toronto is starting to separate themselves as far as crossing the plate is concerned (597 runs scored to New York's 529). It's the combination of the two that have people seeing the Jays in a better light in a little under a two-week span.
At the 100-game mark, Toronto had the league's second-best run differential (+95 to St. Louis' +110). However, their record was nothing more than non-descript. They hit a high-water mark of five over .500 a couple of times, and they basically needed an 11-game winning streak to push up to that level. Just twelve days later, and with the league's best run differential (+129 to St. Louis' +121), the Jays have streaked their way to a season-high nine games over and the most-discussed contender in the sport.
Now, does this mean that this "trendy" pick has become the favorite to win the World Series? No. MLB.com columnist Mike Bauman does a good job debunking the theory that run differential is an end to the discussion of deciding World Series winners. However, I will take the side that appears to have gained steam over the past few years...it puts them in the conversation.
The recent trend (at least) when talking about run differential lends well to making the tournament. Since 2005, the top two teams with the best seasonal differentials have made the MLB playoffs. Since 2002, every team sporting the best differential has earned a spot in the postseason. In the same timespan, only three teams that had the best differential eventually became world champs. However, the Jays, until the trade movement, was on track to blow an opportunity to continue another MLB trend.
From 2000-2009, the sport's expanded playoff system not only provided more dramatic October action. It also helped increase the parity of the game. Twenty-three of the league's 30 clubs experienced at least one postseason berth. The majority of those berths, though, were filled by teams out of New York, Boston, Atlanta, and Los Angeles. Since 2010, that narrative has changed a bit. Year by year, lengthy postseason droughts have been knocked off from the league's ledgers. Texas (11 years) and Cincinnati (15 years) returned in 2010.
The Beltway celebrated in 2012, when Baltimore (15 years) and Washington (31 years before ... when they were the Montreal Expos) broke their doors down. Pittsburgh (21 years) got their chance in 2013. Last year, Kansas City (29 years) gained re-entry into the playoffs. The lone streaker? Toronto. The last time the Blue Jays played past Game 162? Joe Carter was bounding around the bases.
The Toronto fan base has waited 22 years to see postseason baseball, and the franchise has put forth the effort. But it looks like the trade deadline dealing will be the reason that the Blue Jays won't waste this opportunity and continue to trend upward.
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