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May 28, 2015

So, What's in a Retired Number?

This is nothing against Bernie Williams, the former Yankee center fielder whose number 51 was retired at Yankee Stadium Sunday night, before the game against the Rangers. The man played with class, carried himself with class, and set a major league record for postseason RBIs, among other things. Any time there was a touch of insanity around any Yankee season during his career, Williams seemed often enough the most dignified and accessible Yankee.

In 2011, when he entered the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time (even though he wouldn't make his retirement official until this year), I wrote thus:

"By the Bill James measurements of the Hall of Fame Standards and the Hall of Fame Monitor, Williams actually shakes out as a very average Hall of Famer: He meets 49 percent of the Standards (the average Hall of Famer meets 50 percent), and he scores 149 on the Monitor. (The average Hall of Famer: 100.) What hurts him is a dubious defense jacket (he won a few Gold Gloves when he wasn't even close to the best defensive center fielder in the league; he was an excellent fielder his first few seasons but devolved as his career went on), the fact that he often hit better early in the game than in late pressure, and the fact that he only ever led his league in one category (he won the batting title in 1998) while falling far below an average Hall of Famer on the Gray Ink Test. (Williams: 61; average Hall of Famer: 144.)

"What helps him? It almost didn't matter where Williams played, he was dead even at home and on the road when all was said and done: he has an .858 OPS in both scenarios, and he hit exactly one more home run on the road than at home. His postseason shakeout is pretty much a match for his regular seasons: an .850 OPS lifetime in the postseason. As a matter of fact, Bernie Williams's lifetime postseason line would equal a solid if not too spectacular regular season for quite a few players: .275 BA, .371 OBP, .480 SLG, 22 home runs, 80 runs batted in."

Williams appeared on two Hall of Fame ballots and dropped off after pulling down less than 5.0 percent of the writers' vote in 2012-13.

If you assume that retiring a player's uniform number signifies unquestioned greatness, retiring Williams' number 51 raises more questions, the key among them what Sports Illustrated's Richard Rothschild: Haven't the Yankees retired way too many numbers?

"Already jokes have started about when the Bronx Bombers will hand out triple digit numbers or numerals with decimal points," Rothschild writes puckishly. "Monument Park may need to relocate to Utah's Monument Valley."

But all kidding aside, it just may get to that point in the Bronx. Here are the Yankees' retired uniform numbers as of Sunday night, in ascending numeric order: Billy Martin (1), Babe Ruth (3), Lou Gehrig (4), Joe DiMaggio (5), Joe Torre (6), Mickey Mantle (7), Bill Dickey (8), Yogi Berra (8), Roger Maris (9), Phil Rizzuto (10), Thurman Munson (15), Whitey Ford (16), Don Mattingly (23), Elston Howard (32), Casey Stengel (37), Mariano Rivera (42), Reggie Jackson (44), Ron Guidry (49), and Williams (51).

That's 18 uniform numbers retired once Williams's ceremony was done. The pending number retirements of Derek Jeter (2), Jorge Posada (20), and Andy Pettitte (46) will bring the Yankee total to 21. And if you account for Rivera and Jeter being Hall of Famers in waiting, the good news is that, of all the retired Yankee uniform numbers, only six don't belong to Hall of Famers.

Roger Maris and Don Mattingly might have become Hall of Famers if injuries hadn't broken them down before they could solidify their cases. Elston Howard was the first African-American to wear the pinstripes and was a useful catcher (and a 1963 American League Most Valuable Player Award winner) without quite becoming a great one, though he looked like he'd become a great one at first, once he got the regular job. His problems: a) Yankee Stadium was a park that killed right-handed hitters; and, b) after three or four genuinely great seasons including his MVP, injuries ground Howard down, too. He eventually became a respected coach. He eventually became a respected coach.

Ron Guidry looked like a Hall of Famer early and often but his comparatively late arrival probably kept him from posting a few more seasons that might have gotten him in aboard his peak value. But George Steinbrenner came to respect him, and he was the pitching mainstay for the infamous Bronx Zoo teams of the late 1970s. If that's all you need to get your uniform number retired, you could probably point to a lot of similar survivors with similar records who didn't.

As strange as it seems, too, Jeter's pending number retirement will mean that no Yankee ever again will wear a single digit uniform number — unless he chooses (it's been done now and then) to wear number zero. No other major league team will have that dubious distinction. What makes it dubious is that one of the single digits should not have been retired.

Billy Martin (1) was not a great player, his 1953 World Series MVP notwithstanding. He had his uses as a utilityman, but he was never considered capable of a regular everyday job, and he brawled his way off the Yankees and out of a couple of other places, for the most part, before his playing career ended. Being one of Mickey Mantle's drinking pals gets you only so far if you can't and don't produce.

Moreover, and it's probably the animating reason why his number was retired, Martin was not a truly great manager. For the game you needed to win immediately, if not five minutes ago, Martin was about the best in the business in his time and place, or at least before the boozing got too far beyond control. He could be and often was a clever tactician, even if his apparent taste for waging war with umpires and the occasional superstar on his own team got in the way.

But Martin was a divisive long-term manager who mishandled and even ruined a few pitching staffs. He often sought to divide and conquer among his players, and he was so incapable of getting out of his own way that there were actually times when George Steinbrenner's capricious managerial firings were justified in Martin's case, especially in the 1980s.

One suspects the real reason for Martin's number retirement might have been Steinbrenner's subdued guilt over exploiting Martin's almost pathological need to manage the Yankees.

Thurman Munson's number retirement probably had as much to do with honoring him after his tragic death in 1979 as anything else. If he'd lived? That's a big maybe, since, sad as it is to remember (and many don't), Munson — despite being considered a team leader — was already on the downslope of his career when his plane crashed. He looked like a great catcher earlier in his career, but his peak just wasn't going to be enough to make him a Hall of Famer.

Perhaps no Yankee number retirement is more ridiculous than the double retirement of number 8. To anyone who knows the game and the players in question, it should have been no contest. Great as Bill Dickey was in his time, Yogi Berra was ten times the catcher and the player Dickey — who mentored Berra as a young Yankee ("Bill is learning me all his experience," Yogi said famously) — actually was.

Exactly why the Yankees double-retired number 8 remains debatable, but it should have been no contest. Berra is the no-questions-asked greatest receiver ever to play the game with Johnny Bench his oh-so-close second. Dickey was one of the two best of his own time (Mickey Cochrane was the other) but this was one case in which the pupil, no questions asked, out-shone the teacher and everyone else in the job.

Dickey earned his place in the Hall of Fame, of course, but it would not have dishonored him one whit to retire number 8 for Yogi Berra alone.

On the other hand, if you think a couple of the Yankees' excessively retired uniform numbers really didn't have any business being retired just yet, think about this: You could probably win a few World Series with a starting lineup drawn from those numbers:

C — Yogi Berra

1B — Lou Gehrig

2B — Phil Rizzuto (If Alex Rodriguez could move to third base for Derek Jeter, why can't Rizzuto move to second?)

3B — Joe Torre (Torre played a serviceable third base in his later playing career, and you're not going to catch him ahead of Yogi unless you're bucking for mandatory daily drug testing.)

SS — Jeter

LF — Joe DiMaggio (The hell with the Yankee Clipper's ego, you and I both know who the best center fielder in the history of the Yankees is.)

CF — Mickey Mantle

RF — Babe Ruth

SP — Whitey Ford

CL — The Mariano

Are there are a few uniform number retirements — or non-retirements — around baseball that make the Yankees' number retirement volume seem somewhat sane in comparison? (And how on earth did Goose Gossage manage to miss the Yankee cut?) Let's review:

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS — Have retired: Luis Gonzalez. (20.) Should retire: Curt Schilling (38), Randy Johnson (51).

Gonzalez had his best seasons with the Diamondbacks; Johnson, of course, is about to be inducted as a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and Schilling should have been. The Snakes probably retired Gonzalez's number as much in tribute to what he meant to their (so far) only World Series championship. And it is fair to say that if he'd has some seasons otherwise equal to his best Arizona seasons, he might have been a Hall of Famer himself.

ATLANTA BRAVES — Have retired: Dale Murphy (3), Bobby Cox (6), Chipper Jones (10), Warren Spahn (21), John Smoltz (29), Greg Maddux (31), Phil Niekro (35), Eddie Mathews (41), Hank Aaron (44), Tom Glavine (47). Should retire: Fred Haney (2).

At this writing the Braves have ten retired numbers and all but one (Murphy) belong to Hall of Famers. (Count on it: Chipper Jones is a Hall of Famer in waiting.) Murphy might have been a Hall of Famer if injuries hadn't ground him down a little too soon and he'd had a chance to show what he could do in a home park that wasn't a hitter's paradise.

Haney was the first to manage the Braves to back-to-back pennants and won a World Series in the first of those seasons. (Cox did it twice, and won his only World Series as he started the second such string.) He also won the only World Series yet to be won by any Milwaukee team. Even if he finished what Charlie Grimm started in re-aligning the 1950s Braves to that level, Haney does deserve the honor.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES — Have retired: Earl Weaver (4), Brooks Robinson (5), Cal Ripken, Jr. (8), Frank Robinson (20), Jim Palmer (22), Eddie Murray (33). Should retire: George Sisler, Mike Mussina (35).

The Orioles have Hall of Famers one and all with retired uniform numbers so far. Mussina pitched the meat of a should-be Hall of Fame career in Baltimore,On the other hand, the Orioles might be forgiven for forgetting their origins as the St. Louis Browns, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't forget arguably the Browns' all-time best player. Sisler played before uniform numbers became common, but just as the Giants (see below) have done with a couple of pre-number players, they could retire Sisler's uniform symbolically, perhaps with a brown "STL" or "GS." and the Yankees have too damn many retired numbers already.

BOSTON RED SOX — Have retired: Bobby Doerr (1), Joe Cronin (4), Johnny Pesky (6), Carl Yastrzemski (8), Ted Williams (9), Jim Rice (14), Carlton Fisk (27). Should retire: Roger Clemens (22), Curt Schilling (38), Pedro Martinez (45), Terry Francona (47). Ask me when his career is over: David Ortiz (34).

Pesky is the only non-Hall of Famer whose uniform number has been retired by the Red Sox, but you'd be hard pressed to argue against it considering how well he played for the great Red Sox teams of the mid-to-late 1940s and how beloved he became as a franchise icon.

Clemens was the greatest pitcher in Red Sox history before a) the suspicions around you-kn0w-what issue that dogged him after he left Boston, and b) the advent of Pedro Martinez, who's about to become a first ballot Hall of Famer. Schilling was a key player in the Red Sox's return to the Promised Land in 2004 and 2007 and — whatever you think of his doings or sayings off the field or since his retirement — he was, I repeat, the very essence of big game pitching and big game guts on the mound.

Francona may have left Boston bitterly enough (essentially, he quit before he could be executed for the 2012 collapse) but he is the no-questions-asked greatest manager the franchise has ever known, managing the team to those two World Series rings breaking the actual or alleged Curse of the Bambino while he was at it.

CHICAGO CUBS — Have retired: Ron Santo (10), Ernie Banks (14), Ryne Sandberg (23), Billy Williams (26), Ferguson Jenkins (31), Greg Maddux (31). Should retire: Leo Durocher (2), Gabby Hartnett (9).

Like the Yankees with Bill Dickey and Yogi Berra, the Cubs inexplicably retired 31 for both Jenkins and Maddux. I say inexplicably because Maddux posted the absolute meat for his Hall of Fame credentials in Atlanta, even if he eventually returned to the Cubs for a spell as a prodigal elder. Retiring 31 for Jenkins alone makes better sense, since the meat for his Hall credentials was cured in Chicago.

Durocher may or may not be the greatest manager who ever commanded a team (there are arguments in both directions, his Hall of Fame status notwithstanding), but he did manage the Cubs back to respectability in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and he got close enough to winning the National League East in 1969.

(The problem was, he also blew that division title by overworking his regulars and his bullpen and leaving nothing in the tank for the stretch drive during which they were overtaken by the clicking-on-all-cylinders Mets.)

Hartnett is remembered mostly for the "Homer in the Gloamin'," the walk-off bomb he hit in September 1938, at age 37, after the umpires declared the ninth would be the last inning played due to pending darkness no matter if the score was tied. The homer put the Cubs in first place; they clinched the pennant three days later. But Hartnett is also a Hall of Famer who was considered one of the greatest defensive catchers in the National League in his time and place. (Bill James estimates that, if Gold Gloves were awarded during Hartnett's years, he might have been good for eight of them.)

CHICAGO WHITE SOX — Have retired: Nellie Fox (2), Harold Baines (3), Luke Appling (4), Minnie Minoso (9), Luis Aparicio (11), Ted Lyons (16), Billy Pierce (19), Frank Thomas (35), Carlton Fisk (72). Should have retired: Al Lopez (42). Ask me when his career is over: Jose Abreu (79).

Except for Baines (who shouldn't be), Minoso (who should be), and Pierce (who shouldn't be, though he was a terrific pitcher), the White Sox's retired numbers roll is a roll of Hall of Famers.

Lopez, one of the game's finer defensive catchers in his playing days, managed the White Sox back to the World Series in 1959 and restored the team's competitiveness after long decades in the dark following the Black Sox scandal. He'd taken the Indians to the 1954 World Series after a record-setting season (they were flattened by the Giants in four straight, alas), but I think he probably meant more to the White Sox in the long run.

His number was retired in the breach when baseball retired Jackie Robinson's number all around the Show, but Lopez did deserve the honor for the White Sox in his own right.

CINCINNATI REDS — Have retired: Fred Hutchinson (1), Will Hershberger (5), Johnny Bench (5), Joe Morgan (8), Sparky Anderson (10), Barry Larkin (11), Dave Concepcion (13), Ted Kluszewski (18), Frank Robinson (20), Tony Perez (24). Should retire: Ernie Lombardi (4), Pete Rose (14). Ask me when their careers are over: Joey Votto (19), Johnny Cueto (47), Aroldis Chapman (54).

Like the Cubs with Jenkins and Maddux's 31, there's absolutely no reason for number 5 to have been retired for anyone other than Bench. It makes sad sense that the Reds should have wanted to remember the tragic Hershberger, whose 1940 suicide stunned the team and the game. But he was merely the backup to Hall of Famer Ernie Lombardi in his only two major league seasons. He showed some promise, but he died before anyone would have known whether he'd become a genuinely great player.

Lombardi changed uniform numbers several times during his Cincinnati years, but since a) he is a Hall of Famer and b) wore number 4 while helping the Reds win back to back pennants and a World Series, that should be the number retired. Rose you know about, and his banishment for gambling makes things tricky when it comes to Reds honoraria, but I can't imagine the commissioner's office or anyone else objecting to his uniform retirement.

CLEVELAND INDIANS — Have retired: Earl Averill (3), Lou Boudreau (5), Larry Doby (14), Mel Harder (18), Bob Feller (19), Bob Lemon (21). Should retire: Kenny Lofton (7), Early Wynn (24).

Harder is the only non-Hall of Famer on the Indians' retired numbers list. Hall of Famer Wynn was a key man in the Indians' rotation in their second-most competitive decade and helped them to a World Series appearance in 1954. (So did Mike Garcia, twice the American League's ERA leader, but the Big Bear wasn't that close to a Hall of Famer and was basically the fourth man in a potent rotation though he was an excellent pitcher.) As a matter of trivia, Wynn eventually returned to Cleveland (after a spell with the White Sox, including winning a Cy Young Award with their 1959 pennant winner) to win his 300th game before retiring.

Lofton was the spark-plug when the Indians returned to competitiveness in the 1990s. In the end, he probably had a borderline Hall of Fame case when he dropped off the ballot after one try, surprisingly enough.

COLORADO ROCKIES — Have retired: Todd Helton (17). Should retire: Larry Walker (33). Ask me when his career is over: Troy Tulowitzki (2).

Helton was pretty much the face of the franchise until Troy Tulowitzki happened along. Walker played the bulk of a borderline Hall of Fame career with the Rockies. The franchise is too young to have gone nutshit with uniform retirements, of course, but Walker earned the honor.

DETROIT TIGERS — Have retired: Charlie Gehringer (2), Hank Greenberg (5), Al Kaline (6), Sparky Anderson (11), Hal Newhouser (16), Willie Horton (23). Should retire: Jim Bunning (14), Jack Morris (47). Symbolic retirement: Ty Cobb (TC). Ask me when his career is over: Justin Verlander (35).

Horton is the only non-Hall of Famer to have his number retired by the Tigers, but he was a key man in some of the franchise's more shining moments including the 1968 World Series triumph. Bunning is a Hall of Famer, but it's possible the franchise was embarrassed by his trade to Philadelphia before the 1964 season, giving up on the veteran after a 1963 the club thought indicated his aging.

Morris may have shaken out as short of a Hall of Famer (and the debate will go on as his time before Veterans Committee subdivisions approaches, of course), but he was the franchise's best pitcher in the 1980s and he did help them to a World Series title.

HOUSTON ASTROS — Have retired: Jeff Bagwell (5), Craig Biggio (7), Jimmy Wynn (24), Jose Cruz (25), Jim Umbricht (32), Mike Scott (33), Nolan Ryan (34), Don Wilson (40), Larry Dierker (49). Should retire: J.R. Richard (50). Ask me when his career is over: Jose Altuve (27).

Some of these numbers make no sense. Cruz was phenomenally popular in Houston but not even close to a Hall of Famer. Umbricht was a serviceable relief pitcher (he won all four decisions he had in the franchise's first season) but nothing spectacular. Scott had a brief spell of greatness during which he helped the Astros to the National League Championship Series — and got enough in the heads of the Mets that they ground out Game Six determined not to have to face him again (though Scott probably had more on the ball than just his fingers), but he wasn't even close to a Hall of Famer.

Neither were Wilson or Dierker, though Dierker was the staff ace and Wilson the number two man for a good spell. You can justify Wilson's number retirement a little more in light of his tragic death in 1975, though. You should justify Richard's number retirement even more.

At or near the top of the National League pitching heap, he suffered a 1980 stroke that shocked the entire organisation and the game itself, after he'd complained of a dead shoulder but the Astros accused him of malingering. Richard's stroke ended his career and embarrassed the organisation. It would only be right if they retire his number to honour their best pitcher of the 1970s and maybe the best pitcher in franchise history.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS — Have retired: George Brett (5), Dick Howser (10), Frank White (20). Should retire: Whitey Herzog (24), Dan Quisenberry (29).

Brett is a Hall of Famer, of course; White actually has a borderline Hall case. Howser managed the team to its only World Series title after jumping off the Yankee managerial merry-go-round of the 1980s, and his number retirement probably had as much to do with his courageous fight against brain cancer as with that Series conquest.

Herzog first managed the Royals to competitiveness; the Yankee-Royal rivalry of the 1970s was one of baseball's best and their tangles in the American League Championship Series were as memorable as any World Series.

There's the possibility that, institutionally, the franchise remains a little embarrassed by his departure: the White Rat was all but run out of Kansas City after the Royals failed to make the cut for the 1979 ALCS. He suspected that owner Ewing Kauffmann actually disliked him, possibly because he ran John Mayberry out of town (after Mayberry turned up hung over for the decisive ALCS game a year earlier); possibly, too, because Herzog had a lucrative attendance bonus in his contract.

Quisenberry was the Royals' first bona-fide superstar reliever; he led the American League in saves in four straight seasons and in five out of six, and they weren't just single-inning jobs, either. (He finished second in back-to-back Cy Young Award votings, too.) Articulate and witty, he was one of the Royals' most popular players and enjoyed a calm retirement until he, too, was stricken with brain cancer and died in 1998, seven years after his final game.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS — Have retired: Jim Fregosi (11), Gene Autry (26), Rod Carew (29), Nolan Ryan (30), Jimmie Reese (50). Should retire: Tim Salmon (15), Vladimir Guerrero (27), Dean Chance (31). Ask me when his career is over: Mike Trout (27).

Autry, of course, was the franchise's original owner, who didn't quite live long enough to see his Angels finally win one for the Cowboy; the "26" signified his standing among his players as the team's 26th man. Reese was a longtime and beloved coach.

Salmon was probably the best player in Angel history not named Vladimir Guerrero and not named — even once — to an all-star team. How good was he? He's second behind Fregosi on the Angels' all-time WAR list. What kept Salmon from Hall of Fame credentials may seem mysterious now (it was probably injuries), but he was a terrific player. If his number is retired in due course, it would make Salmon the only Angel lifer so honored.

Guerrero is a likely Hall of Famer (his Montreal seasons probably serve strongest to make his case) who was probably the single most popular Angel during his five seasons (including an MVP) in Anaheim. Chance was the franchise's first consistent pitching ace and first Cy Young Award winner — he rudely disrupted Sandy Koufax's Cy Young streak by snatching the 1964 award, though it did serve to keep the prize in Los Angeles, where it had been since 1962 (Don Drysdale) and would stay through 1966 (Koufax's second and third).

(Chance might have been the Angels' first star pitcher, too, if running mate Bo Belinsky — a far more self-destructive personality — hadn't charmed his way into Hollywood's heart first with his wit during a rookie spring holdout, his randy lifestyle, and his rookie no-hitter in 1962.)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS — Have retired: Pee Wee Reese (1), Tommy Lasorda (2), Duke Snider (4), Junior Gilliam (19), Don Sutton (20), Walter Alston (24), Sandy Koufax (32), Roy Campanella (39), Jackie Robinson (42), Don Drysdale (53). Should retire: Gil Hodges (14), Don Newcombe (36), Andy Messersmith (47). Ask me when his career is over: Clayton Kershaw (22).

Nine Hall of Famers out of 10 retired numbers is pretty good. But Hodges was the best first baseman the franchise ever produced, by a hair, and Newcombe was arguably their best pitcher of the early to mid 1950s, not to mention baseball's first-ever Cy Young Award winner.

And if you need an explanation as to why Messersmith deserves a retired Dodger number, you don't remember that he succeeded at last — after pitching without a contract for 1975 for openers — where Curt Flood failed so courageously.

Gilliam wasn't a Hall of Famer on the best day of his life, but the Dodgers probably honoured him because he became the Dodgers' second black starting infielder in 1953, and because he eventually came out of retirement to help the Dodgers win a World Series in 1965. (His diving stop of a Zoilo Versailles smash in Game Seven helped save Sandy Koufax's clinching shutout.) And, because he became a longtime respected coach after retiring as a player.

MIAMI MARLINS — Have retired: None. Should retire: Ask me when Giancarlo Stanton's career is over.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS — Have retired: Paul Molitor (4), Robin Yount (19), Rollie Fingers (34), Hank Aaron (44). Should retire: Harvey Kuenn (32).

Nobody objected to the Brewers retiring Aaron's number even if he did wind up his career with them as a kind of sentimental gesture on both sides, considering his path to greatness when the Braves played in Milwaukee.

Kuenn was a former American League batting titleist who was traded to Cleveland infamously for Rocky Colavito in 1960. ("I've just traded hamburger for steak!" crowed Indians GM Frank Lane, in one of the most controversial trades in baseball history — and lopsided; Lane saw nothing but Kuenn's gaudy batting averages and was too short-sighted to see Colavito was the superior run producer. Colavito's annual contract haggles with the penurious Lane probably factored in the decision to deal him.) He became the Brewers' manager in due course, managing them to their first World Series, in 1982, and took it to a seventh game.

(In honor of his lineup full of free-swinging power hitters — Gorman Thomas, Cecil Cooper, Ben Oglivie, et. al. — the club was nicknamed Harvey's Wallbangers.)

MINNESOTA TWINS — Have retired: Harmon Killebrew (3), Tony Oliva (6), Tom Kelly (10), Kent Hrbek (14), Bert Blyleven (28), Rod Carew (29), Kirby Puckett (34). Should retire: Joe Judge (5), Sam Rice (22), Walter Johnson (25), Johan Santana (57). Ask me when his career is over: Joe Mauer (7).

I'm not entirely convinced Hrbek's number should have been retired, popular as he was in Minnesota, since he was a player who brushed greatness now and then but only that.

The Twins seem to have little institutional affection for their Washington origins, and in some ways that might be understandable. (Washington — First in war, first in peace, and last in the American League, went the old legend.) But there's no reason not to retire numbers associated with three of the franchise's greatest players.

Judge was the longtime first baseman, thought to be the best defender at the position for much of his career, and factored in the Senators' only World Series championship before playing in a second straight Series. Johnson, the greatest pitcher the franchise has ever known, didn't wear a number until he managed the team for a few seasons, but since Blyleven has 28 sewn up Johnson's 25 would work. Rice is a Hall of Famer and there's an arguable case for Judge as well.

As for Santana, he was only the best pitcher in the American League while wearing a Twins uniform. His shoulder will prove to have kept him from solidifying a Hall of Fame case, but Santana was a genuinely great pitcher.

NEW YORK METS — Have retired: Gil Hodges (14), Casey Stengel (37), Tom Seaver (41). Should retire: Davey Johnson (5), Ed Kranepool (7), Gary Carter (8), Dwight Gooden (16), Keith Hernandez (17), Mike Piazza (31). Ask me when their careers are over: David Wright (5), Matt Harvey (33), Jacob deGrom (48).

The good news: two of the three retired Mets numbers belong to Hall of Famers, even if Stengel did the work that put him into the Hall of Fame in the first place for the 1949-60 Yankees. And Hodges, of course, managed the team to their first and in many ways most stupefying World Series conquest in 1969. (He should be a Hall of Famer, combining his playing career and his managing career, but that's another debate.)

David Wright wears No. 5 now and he's on the Hall of Fame path, of course, but the Mets should have retired it for Johnson. No matter the acrimony which surrounded his firing in 1991; no matter that the Mets he managed to greatness were such an insane in the brain bunch, largely, as to embarrass as often as ennoble the franchise.

Carter and Hernandez were the imports who helped shepherd the 1980s Mets to greatness until their bodies finally began aging the hard way. Gooden, of course, was the Mets' best pitcher of the 1980s, and it wasn't entirely his fault that he never sustained Hall of Fame level greatness. (The Mets' insistence in spring 1986 that he tone down the strikeouts and add off speed pitches he couldn't throw well probably had as much to do with it as any of Gooden's substance abuse issues.)

Kranepool was the longest-serving Met who came to the club in 1962 as a raw rookie; he eventually became a better than useful longtime utilityman at first base and the outfield, a sentimental favorite, and a valuable pinch hitter, and his retirement meant the retirement of the last and longest-lasting Original Met in a major league uniform.

Piazza is a should-be Hall of Famer who hit just about as well as a Met as he had for all those solid Dodger seasons. His signature moment was one no New Yorker will forget: what proved to be the game-winning bomb off a center field television camera, in the first Mets home game following the 9-11 atrocity, a homer that electrified both New York and the visiting Braves alike, who understood the magnitude of what Piazza had just done.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS — Have retired: Reggie Jackson (9), Rickey Henderson (24), Catfish Hunter (27), Rollie Fingers (34), Dennis Eckersley (43). Should retire: Al Simmons (7), Lefty Grove (10). Ask me when his career is over: Sonny Gray (54).

All retired A's numbers so far belong to Hall of Famers. But the A's, too, seem to be ignorant or disdainful of their franchise history. Granted that Simmons wore a number for only one season and Grove three, how does a pair of Hall of Famers — whose prime seasons were with the A's, with one just possibly the greatest pitcher baseball knew before World War II — not have their uniform numbers retired? Someone needs to send the A's back to history class.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES — Have retired: Richie Ashburn (1), Jim Bunning (14), Mike Schmidt (20), Steve Carlton (32), Robin Roberts (36). Should retire: Dick Allen (15), Curt Schilling (38). Ask me when their careers are over: Jimmy Rollins (11), Chase Utley (26), Cole Hamels (35).

Again, less is more: all five retired Phillies numbers belong to Hall of Famers.

Curt Schilling belongs in Cooperstown; his regular season career is a Hall of Fame record when all is said and done, and he was the very essence of a big game pitcher in the bargain.

And so, after long, long, arduous review, does Dick Allen. He was — no matter how you slice Philadelphia's 1960s racial growing pains and Allen's often clumsy ways of wrestling with them before finally wrestling his way out of Philadelphia — the best position player the 1960s Phillies had and may have been the second greatest player in franchise history.

Allen has made peace with his past and acknowledged his errors in handling the issues that finally drove him out of town and compromised his career in due course. Bunning and Schmidt have campaigned for his Hall of Fame election. Retiring his number would be the least the Phillies could do to tell him, at long enough last, "We remember, and we shouldn't forget."

PITTSBURGH PIRATES — Have retired: Billy Meyer (1), Ralph Kiner (4), Willie Stargell (8), Bill Mazeroski (9), Paul Waner (11), Pie Traynor (20), Roberto Clemente (21), Honus Wagner (33), Danny Murtaugh (40). Should retire: Jim Leyland (14), Barry Bonds (25), Elroy Face (26). Ask me when their careers are over: Andrew McCutchen (22), Gerrit Cole (45).

I can't possibly imagine the reasoning behind retiring Meyer's number, other than that managing the Pirates of the late 1940s through the mid-1950s was one of baseball's dirtiest jobs but somebody had to do it, and there's something to be said for perseverance above and beyond the call of sanity.

Well, actually I can. In his first season in Pittsburgh (he'd been considered for the Yankees after distinguished minor league managing), Meyer managed them from seventh to fourth place and was named Manager of the Year for 1948. But the Pirates collapsed again and Meyer resigned after 1952. He isn't even close to the greatest manager the franchise ever knew, but maybe that next-to-last-to-fourth climb stuck in the Pirates' institutional memory.

Bonds just might have been the greatest position player the Pirates ever knew this side of Honus Wagner, and it's absolutely fair to say he had no suspicion of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances as a Pirate even if he did have a small rash of personality crises that impeded as often as inspired the team's brilliant National League East run of the late 1980s through the early 1990s.

Face, of course, is the best relief pitcher in franchise history. Leyland managed the Pirates back to greatness and that remarkable NL East run. 'Nuff said.

SAN DIEGO PADRES — Have retired: Steve Garvey (6), Tony Gwynn (19), Dave Winfield (31), Randy Jones (35), Trevor Hoffman (51). Should retire: Dick Williams (23).

Retiring Garvey's number is a bit of a surprise considering a) the Dodgers, for whom Garvey played the absolute meat of his career, haven't done it (perhaps they were only too embarrassed by the post-career revelations of Garvey's surrealistic sex life), and b) he wasn't even close to being the Padres' best player while he was there, though he was certainly useful.

My guess is that the number retirement is more in honor of how he helped the Padres get to their first World Series, in 1984, particularly the game-ending two-run homer he whacked off Cubs closer Lee Smith to send the League Championship Series to a deciding fifth game.

If that's the case, the Padres ought to retire the number worn by the man who managed the team to their first World Series appearance in only his third season on the bridge. Ironically, Dick Williams' number was retired by the Fort Worth Cats — for whom he played, ages earlier, in the Dodgers' farm system.

Gwynn and Winfield are no-doubt Hall of Famers, of course, and Hoffman will be soon enough. Jones, however, is a puzzle, almost. He was the Padres' first Cy Young Award winner . . . the same season he blew an elbow nerve in his pitching arm, in his final start, and he was never the same pitcher after that. Who says slop tossers are immune to the injuries the power pitchers risk?

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS — Have retired: Bill Terry (3), Mel Ott (4), Carl Hubbell (11), Monte Irvin (20), Willie Mays (24), Juan Marichal (27), Orlando Cepeda (30), Gaylord Perry (36), Willie McCovey (44). Should retire: Barry Bonds (25). Symbolic retirements: Christy Mathewson (NY), John McGraw (NY). Ask me when their careers are over: Buster Posey (28), Sergio Romo (54), Tim Lincecum (55).

All Giants retired numbers belong to Hall of Famers, appropriately. Bonds would be a Hall of Famer if not for that issue (never mind what can or can't be proven about what they did or didn't do for him), and Posey is on the Hall of Fame track so far.

SEATTLE MARINERS — Have retired: None. Should retire: Edgar Martinez (11), Ken Griffey, Jr. (24), Randy Johnson (51), Ichiro Suzuki (51). Ask me when his career is over: Felix Hernandez (34).

It's going to prove a pickle, of course, since they wore the same number, but both the Big Unit (who's about to go into the Hall of Fame) and Ichiro (who probably will in due course) deserve the honor. Griffey should be obvious. (And, soon enough, a Hall of Famer.) So, really, should Martinez.

I've since learned the Mariners' team policy is that a player doesn't become eligible for uniform number retirement until he's eligible for Hall of Fame consideration.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS — Have retired: Ozzie Smith (1), Red Schoendienst (2), Stan Musial (6), Enos Slaughter (9), Tony LaRussa (10), Ken Boyer (14), Dizzy Dean (17), Lou Brock (20), Whitey Herzog (24), Bruce Sutter (42), Bob Gibson (45), Gussie Busch (85). Should retire: Albert Pujols (5), Curt Flood (21). Symbolic retirement: Rogers Hornsby (RH).

Longtime owner Busch's retired number honors his age upon his death. Only Boyer among the retired numbers otherwise isn't a Hall of Famer, but he does have a case. Pujols should be bloody obvious. And if you need me to explain why Flood deserves the honor, you weren't alive or must have slept during Flood's battle against the reserve clause.

TEXAS RANGERS — Have retired: Johnny Oates (26), Nolan Ryan (34). Should retire: Ivan Rodriguez (7), Frank Howard (33).

The Rangers seem not to care much for their own Washington origins (as the second Senators franchise), but gentle giant Howard (no man ever wore a nickname — Capital Punishment — less appropriate to his personality, except maybe Harmon [The Killer] Killebrew) was the number one draw for those Senators from his arrival in a trade (with the Dodgers, for lefty Claude Osteen, when the Dodgers feared losing Sandy Koufax prematurely) to his departure in a sale to the Tigers to close out his career. Rodriguez, of course, is a Hall of Famer in waiting.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS — Have retired: Roberto Alomar. Should retire: Cito Gaston (43), Carlos Delgado (25), Roy Halladay (32). Ask me when his career is over: Jose Bautista (19).

Gaston managed the franchise to its first two and (so far) only two World Series rings — in back-to-back seasons, while he was at it. Delgado is the best first baseman in franchise history and was kept short of the Hall of Fame by late-career injuries. Halladay is no questions asked the franchise's best pitcher, ever, and a Hall of Famer in waiting, possibly.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS — Have retired: Gary Carter (8), Rusty Staub (10), Andre Dawson (10), Tim Raines (30). Should retire: Vladimir Guerrero (27). Ask me when their careers are over: Bryce Harper (34), Stephen Strasburg (37).

The Nationals aren't known to be too leery of their Montreal past, though in fairness the Expos retired Carter, Staub, Dawson, and Raines before leaving for Washington. Why Dawson shares the honor with Staub is anyone's guess; Staub was a terrific player and popular as the day was long in Montreal (they called him Le Grande Orange) but he wasn't a Hall of Famer or anywhere near one. Guerrero will be a Hall of Famer in due course, and his Montreal seasons are the major reason why.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 3:36 PM | Comments (0)

May 27, 2015

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 12

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished ninth at Charlotte, recording his 11th top-10 finish of the year. He leads the points standings, ahead of Martin Truex, Jr. by 41.

"The Coke 600 marked the return of Kyle Busch," Harvick said, "and he finished a solid 11th. He was in the No. 18 Skittles car. As you may know, the Skittles motto is 'Taste the Rainbow.' A typical rainbow is usually comprised of seven colors, which is six more than a typical crowd at a NASCAR race."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson lost control on lap 273 at Charlotte and slammed the inside wall, ruining his night in the Coca-Cola 600. He eventually finished 40th, 30 laps behind.

"Thank goodness that SAFER barrier was there," Johnson said. "The crash may have looked violent, but it was not. In fact, it was a 'Lowe's impact' collision.

"One year ago, that SAFER barrier wasn't even in place. Back then, with the letters rearranged, it was called the FEARS barrier."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished third in the Coca-Cola 600, posting his seventh top-five of the season. He is fourth in the Sprint Cup points standings.

"You know who else finished third?" Earnhardt said. "Lewis Hamilton at the Formula 1 Grand Prix Of Monaco. Somebody asked Lewis after the race what it felt like to give away the win like that. He said, 'It's the pits.'"

4. Joey Logano — Logano led 17 laps and finished 13th at Charlotte, while Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski took seventh. Logano is third in the points standings, 66 behind Kevin Harvick.

"What a race by Juan Pablo Montoya at Indianapolis," Logano said. "He celebrated with the traditional bottle of milk. Now, if you would have told me before the race about a Colombian and a 'white substance,' milk certainly wouldn't have entered my mind."

5. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex led a race-high 131 laps in the Coca Cola 600 and finished fifth, earning his 11th top-10 of the year.

"I hate to be a whiner," Truex said, "but I lost a fuel mileage race, outdone by drivers who saved gas. And I'm not happy. They're celebrating in the 'conservatory,' which is the same place I play the world's smallest violin."

6. Kurt Busch — Busch finished 10th at Charlotte, posting his fifth top-10 of the year.

"I was proud of my brother Kyle," Busch said. "He had a great finish at Charlotte. He wanted to return sooner, but I talked him out of it. I quoted an Iredell County sheriff when I said, 'What's your rush?'"

7. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished seventh in the Coca-Cola 600 and is now sixth in the Sprint Cup points standings.

"I welcomed a baby girl into the world on Saturday," Keselowski said. "I don't think she looks a bit like me, but people tell me she's got my gums. I even had to look over my shoulder for Kevin Harvick when the doctor told my girlfriend Paige White to 'push.'"

8. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth started on pole at Charlotte and finished fourth after leading 26 laps. He is seventh in the points standings, 101 out of first.

"Carl Edwards was finally able to perform his signature back flip," Kenseth said. "That's the first time since joining JGR that he's landed on his feet."

9. Carl Edwards — Edwards took the lead on lap 382 at Charlotte and ran away from the field, taking the Coca-Cola 600 win, his first in 31 races and first as a Joe Gibbs Racing driver.

"It was great to take the No. 19 car with Subway sponsorship to victory lane," Edwards said. "Up until Charlotte, I don't think I've done my sponsors justice. You could say my performance was 'Sub-par.'"

10. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished eighth at Charlotte on a strong day for Joe Gibbs Racing, as all four JGR drivers finished in the top 11, with Carl Edwards taking the win.

"Sunday was a great day for motor racing," Hamlin said, "and a great day for Toyota at Charlotte. Nico won at Monaco, Juan Pablo won at Indianapolis, and Tokyo won at Charlotte."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:26 PM | Comments (0)

May 26, 2015

Best QBs in History: 49-101

I've been studying NFL history throughout my life. It's a journey that began the first time I watched my dad's copy of NFL's Greatest Hits on VHS, accelerating when I read Total Football II, and continuing when I began sportswriting over a decade ago.

Something I've never done is to publish my list of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Sparked by a project at Football Perspective, I'm finally stepping into the ring. But because I've done so much research over the years, this is not a simple list. Instead, I'll present my choices as a series of articles, highlighting about 10 players per list, and counting down to number one. We began last week, with quarterbacks who preceded the Modern Era, like Sammy Baugh and Sid Luckman.

This week, I'm profiling the players who rank about 50th on my list, as well as recognizing some other fine QBs who missed the cut. I wanted to do these articles in groups of 10: 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, and so on. But I found that the way I rate players doesn't always fit neatly into groups of 10, so instead, we'll begin with the QBs I ranked 49-52.

Here are the 49 Modern-Era players who fill out my top 101, in alphabetical order: Frankie Albert, George Blanda, Drew Bledsoe, Ed Brown, Kerry Collins, Daunte Culpepper, Steve DeBerg, Joe Ferguson, Jeff George, Steve Grogan, Matt Hasselbeck, Ron Jaworski, Brad Johnson, Charley Johnson, Billy Kilmer, Bernie Kosar, Tommy Kramer, Dave Krieg, Greg Landry, Neil Lomax, Andrew Luck, Johnny Lujack, Archie Manning, Eli Manning, Jim McMahon, Don Meredith, Earl Morrall, Craig Morton, Cam Newton, Ken O'Brien, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Milt Plum, Jake Plummer, Jim Plunkett, Tobin Rote, Frank Ryan, Matt Ryan, Mark Rypien, Matt Schaub, Brian Sipe, Norm Snead, Tommy Thompson, Michael Vick, Billy Wade, Danny White, Doug Williams, Russell Wilson, Jim Zorn.

George Blanda is in the Hall of Fame, but as much for his kicking as his passing. Blanda retired as the NFL's all-time leader in scoring — and interceptions. He only started about 100 games at QB. Three young players made the list: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson. Luck and Wilson are stars, their talent unmistakable. They've reached the playoffs a combined six times in six seasons, including two Super Bowl appearances for Wilson. Luck has improved every year, and I'd love to see what Wilson could do on a team with legit receivers. Both of them look like future Hall of Famers. Newton is on the list because Luck and Wilson are. He's got one more year of experience, and he's done some heroic things on a team without many other weapons. Newton is one of those rare players who can create offense on his own.

Many fans rank the Mannings, Archie and Eli, in the top 50. Both Mannings would make my top 75, and Eli is in the top 60. Eli Manning played great in his two Super Bowl appearances, but the other 170 games of his career are pretty close to average. He's not accurate, he's inconsistent, and his turnover rate is unacceptable in modern football. Over the past 10 seasons, Eli committed 213 turnovers, by far the most in the NFL. Drew Brees is next (184), and no one else is within 50 of Eli. Manning brought his A-game in the two most important games of his career, and that's something we should consider when ranking him, but I don't believe he has a special clutch "ability" other players lack. Despite his "winner" reputation, Manning's Giants have made the playoffs in only five of his 11 seasons, and they've lost their first playoff game more often than they've won (2-3). Eli is a good player, but he's not Bart Starr.

Archie was stuck on terrible teams, running for his life. But I'm not convinced he was a great pro quarterback. The argument for Archie is a what-if scenario. His stats are terrible, and they would have been better on a different team, but they'd need to be a lot better to get Arch anywhere near the top 50. He made 2 Pro Bowls, which is good, but not really top-50 territory. Every team he played for immediately improved when he left. Manning didn't actually do enough to rank among the best of all time. There are several Archie Manning-type players, good QBs stuck on bad teams, whom I think have a stronger argument:

Drew Bledsoe
New England Patriots, 1993-2001; Buffalo Bills, 2002-04; Dallas Cowboys, 2005-06
44,611 yards, 251 TD, 206 INT, 77.1 rating

The Patriots were a train-wreck in the early '90s. They went 1-15, 6-10, 2-14. That's worse (.188) than any three-year stretch in Saints history. Then New England hired Bill Parcells and drafted Drew Bledsoe. The Patriots made the playoffs in Bledsoe's second season, and the Super Bowl in his fourth season.

In that first playoff season (1994), Bledsoe was 22, playing quarterback for a team that was 19-61 over the previous five years. The only meaningful additions were Bledsoe and a rookie linebacker named Willie McGinest. New England's leading rusher in '94 was Marion Butts, who gained 703 yards with a 2.9 average. The top WRs were Michael Timpson and Vincent Brisby. Fortunately, tight end Ben Coates, a non-factor his first two years, clicked with Bledsoe; Coates wasn't a game-breaker, but he was the go-to receiver. The offensive line was shaky: only two of the starting offensive linemen were still with the team two years later (the others were backups on other teams, or out of the league entirely). The defense produced no Pro Bowlers, though it was close to average. In this talent-starved environment, Bledsoe led the NFL in passing yardage and the Patriots went 10-6. Yes, Bledsoe led the league in passing yards with Michael Timpson and Vincent Brisby as his top wide receivers.

Bledsoe was a four-time Pro Bowler. Other than a couple years with Curtis Martin, he never really had a running game, and opposing defenses knew he was going to pass. He faced aggressive blitzes and nickel defenses on first down, even in two-receiver sets. He was the engine that drove the Patriots' offense, and he produced points on teams without a lot of weapons in the receiving corps. He was the youngest QB to reach 10,000 passing yards, and he still ranks among the all-time top 10 in passing yardage.

Tobin Rote
Green Bay Packers, 1950-56; Detroit Lions, 1957-59; San Diego Chargers, 1963-64; Denver Broncos, 1966
18,850 yards, 148 TD, 191 INT, 56.8 rating

Tobin Rote was the Archie Manning of the 1950s, mired on a hopeless Packers team stuck between its dynasties of the early '40s and the 1960s. The Packers of that era routinely had the worst defense in the NFL, and the running game was so weak that during his seven years in Green Bay, Rote himself led the team in rushing yards three times and rushing touchdowns five times. Rote did have one great season with the Packers, 1956, when he led the NFL in passing yards and TDs, and rushed for 11 TDs (in 12 games). Following the season, Detroit traded four players to obtain Rote from Green Bay.

It was a prescient move. With Bobby Layne injured, Rote led the Lions to an NFL Championship. In the title game, he passed for four touchdowns and ran for another. The Lions traded Layne a year later, making Rote the starter, but the championship core of the early '50s was aging or retired, and the team's success didn't last. Rote played poorly in 1959 and was cut after the season. He played three years for the CFL's Toronto Argonauts, setting multiple CFL records, before Sid Gillman brought Rote to the AFL's Chargers. Rote was named AFL MVP, and led the Chargers to their first and only championship, a 51-10 win in which Rote passed for two TDs and ran for a third. Norm Van Brocklin and Rote are the only quarterbacks to win a major league championship with two different teams.

Rote's career had a strange shape, with a stint in the CFL and his prime years on the NFL's worst team. Rote made a lot of negative plays, but he was in desperate, must-pass situations. He was top-10 in career passing yards upon his retirement, and he was a brilliant runner, perhaps the best running quarterback before Randall Cunningham. Rote led all QBs in rushing six times, and retired with the most rushing yards of any quarterback in history. He was genuinely outstanding in 1956, and he quarterbacked multiple championship wins, plus he played great in both title games (combined 6 pass TD, 2 rush TD, teams scored 110 pts).

Norm Snead
Washington, 1961-63; Philadelphia Eagles, 1964-70; Minnesota Vikings, 1971; New York Giants, 1972-74, 1976; San Francisco 49ers, 1974-75
30,797 yards, 196 TD, 257 INT, 65.5 rating

History has not remembered Norm Snead kindly, but he was an above-average QB for a long time, and he did have several standout seasons. Snead's reputation suffers because he played mostly on bad teams, and he was traded for future Hall of Famer Sonny Jurgensen. That's a tough comparison to overcome.

Snead threw an appalling number of interceptions, but partly made up for it with stats that don't show up in the rating formula: he scored 23 rushing touchdowns, and he didn't fumble a lot. Snead distinguished himself as a volume passer who threw for a lot of yardage, every year for a decade. Upon retirement, he ranked in the all-time top 10 in pass completions, yards, and TDs.

Snead was a four-time Pro Bowler, and he was good enough to spend 14 years as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Compare Snead to Earl Morrall: most analysts rate Morrall ahead, but throughout their careers, teams consistently viewed Snead as a starter, and Morrall as a backup. Maybe Snead would have done pretty well with the '68 Colts and '72 Dolphins, too? Following a poor rookie season (11 TD, 22 INT, 51.6 rating) on a hopeless Washington team, Snead threw for at least as many TDs as INTs in four of his next six years — not bad for the early '60s. Coming off a Pro Bowl season in 1967, Snead broke his leg in a 1968 exhibition game. Over his remaining nine seasons, Snead threw as many TDs as INTs only once.

Snead's production is what I look for with the Archie Manning argument. Snead played for terrible teams. Washington didn't have a winning season between 1956-68. Philadelphia's only winning record from 1962-77 came with Snead as the primary starter ('66). The Giants never made the playoffs between 1964-80. Snead's teams were awful, never just "one player away" from contending. It's tough to succeed in that environment, but Snead at least partly overcame the challenges, making a handful of Pro Bowls and posting career passing totals that still show up on today's leaderboards. That's what I wanted to see from Archie Manning.

* * *

Now, let's look at the top 52 QBs of the Modern Era. This series will become an ordered list, but there's not a big difference between #49 and #52, so for now, we'll just proceed in alphabetical order.

Mark Brunell
Green Bay Packers, 1993-94; Jacksonville Jaguars, 1995-2003; Washington, 2004-07; New Orleans Saints, 2008-09; New York Jets, 2010-11
32,072 yards, 184 TD, 108 INT, 84.0 rating

Mark Brunell started in the NFL for 11 seasons, and he had a 19-year career, continuing to play as late as age 41. In his prime, Brunell was a dual-threat QB, an efficient passer and a good runner. He is the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era to lead the NFL in passing yards and lead all QBs in rushing the same season. He passed for over 3,000 yards six times and rushed for over 200 yards seven times.

Brunell is one of the finest left-handed quarterbacks in history. Teamed with Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell, he helped the expansion Jaguars become one of the best teams in the AFC. Brunell also went to the playoffs with Washington in 2005, quarterbacking the team's only postseason win of the 2000s.

Some readers may question why Brunell made the top 52, and Drew Bledsoe did not. These two are easy to compare, because both were rookies in 1993. Bledsoe passed for many more yards (44,611) and TDs (251), but Brunell had better completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD%, INT%, passer rating, and net yards per attempt ... he was a far more efficient passer. And of course, Brunell was a far superior runner, with an edge of 5 TDs and about 1,500 yards. The most striking difference is that Brunell committed 137 turnovers (108 interceptions, 29 fumbles lost), compared to 262 for Bledsoe (206 INT, 56 FmL). Brunell played with better receivers and nicer weather, but that's a titanic difference, 125 turnovers.

I'm not trying to denigrate Drew Bledsoe, because he was a good quarterback. But he's commonly ranked higher than this, so it seemed important to explain why each player rates where he does.

Trent Green
San Diego Chargers, 1993; Washington, 1995-98; St. Louis Rams, 1999-2000, 2008; Kansas City Chiefs, 2001-06; Miami Dolphins, 2007
28,475 yards, 162 TD, 114 INT, 86.0 rating

Trent Green started his first season opener in 2001. He was 31. But Green quickly showed that flashes of promise with Washington and St. Louis were no fluke. Most passing yards, 2002-05:

For a period of four years, Trent Green was arguably the second-most effective QB in the NFL. Of course, Green benefitted from a supporting cast that included two Hall of Fame linemen (Willie Roaf and Will Shields) and the greatest tight end of all time (Tony Gonzalez), as well as standouts like Priest Holmes and Brian Waters. There was a sense around the league that Green was a product of his team, and not the key player.

There's certainly some truth to that idea, but Green's success in Kansas City is validated by his time with the Rams. When Kurt Warner got injured in 2000, Green (16 TD, 5 INT, 101.8 rating) played at a similar level to Warner (21 TD, 18 INT, 98.3 rating). With such a brief starting career and so many talented teammates, you wouldn't want to rate Green much higher than this, but he quarterbacked the greatest offense of the early '00s.

Phil Simms
New York Giants, 1979-93
33,462 yards, 199 TD, 157 INT, 78.5 rating

Phil Simms played maybe the most perfect Super Bowl of any quarterback. Facing the Broncos in Super Bowl XXI, Simms went 22-of-25 for 268 yards and 3 TDs. Two of the three incompletions were drops, though one of the three touchdowns came on a deflected pass, which probably evens out. Thirty years later, Simms still holds the record for the highest passer rating in a Super Bowl.

A first-round draft pick in 1979, Simms began his career as a disappointment. He struggled with injuries and inconsistency before securing the starting job in 1984. The 1986-90 Giants went 55-21 with two Super Bowl victories. Those teams succeeded with dominant defense, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust ground game, and a pass attack that was whatever Phil Simms could manufacture. The team's best wide receiver was Lionel Manuel, and tight end Mark Bavaro was the only real standout Simms could throw to. The defense kept New York in nearly every game, but it was largely up to Simms to produce enough points to win.

Simms' stats are good (although he kept his interception rate low by taking a lot of sacks), but they don't do justice to a player who overcame his lack of weapons and often saved his best performances for the biggest moments. He led the Giants to their first playoff appearance in 18 years, he was a two-time Pro Bowler, and he was MVP of Super Bowl XXI.

Vinny Testaverde
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1987-92; Cleveland Browns, 1993-95; Baltimore Ravens, 1996-97; New York Jets, 1998-2003, 2005; Dallas Cowboys, 2004; New England Patriots, 2006; Carolina Panthers, 2007
46,233 yards, 275 TD, 267 INT, 75.0 rating

This is a seven-part series on the greatest quarterbacks of all time. When we get close to the top, we'll go in order, but in this part of the rankings, we're looking at groups of players. Can I tell you with any confidence whether Tobin Rote was better than Drew Bledsoe, or Mark Brunell compared to Trent Green? Not really. We're comparing similar players, and the similarity that ties together many of the QBs in this article is that they began their careers playing for bad teams.

From 1983-96, Tampa Bay went 64-159 (.287) and never had a winning season. The Bucs were terrible before Testaverde arrived, and they were terrible after he left. During his six seasons in Tampa, Testaverde threw 77 TDs and 112 INTs, but I don't believe he was a bad quarterback; he was stuck in a hopeless situation. From 1985-86, a Buccaneers QB named Steve Young threw 11 TDs and 21 INTs. Don't judge Vinny by his career numbers, or his seasons on one of the worst teams in history.

Testaverde ranks among the all-time top 10 in both passing yards and passing TDs, but it's not just the compilation of statistics that distinguishes Testaverde's career; he had some genuinely great seasons. Below are stats for two QBs from 1996. Other than net yards per attempt, these figures do not include sacks.

Which player do you want? QB A had more touchdowns and fewer interceptions, but B passed for 300 more yards on the same number of attempts. B was also a better rusher (188 yds, 5.5 avg, 2 TD) than A (136 yds, 2.8 avg, 2 TD), and he had fewer fumbles (11-9). Statistically, they're really close. QB B is Vinny Testaverde, and QB A is NFL MVP Brett Favre.

That's not Testaverde's only great season. Two years later, he led the AFC in passer rating (101.6), went 13-2 as starter, and took the Jets to the AFC Championship Game. That was at age 35, and very few players have a great season after that point, but Testaverde played 21 seasons in the NFL, finally retiring when he was 44. Warren Moon, Favre, and Testaverde are the only players with a 3,000-yard passing season after age 40, and Testaverde is the oldest starting quarterback to win a game in the NFL. A quarterback's abilities decline rapidly in his mid-30s, so a guy who could still play in his mid-40s was obviously pretty good before the decline.

* * *

Last week, we highlighted the best pre-Modern Era quarterbacks: Sammy Baugh, Dutch Clark, Ed Danowski, Paddy Driscoll, Benny Friedman, Arnie Herber, Cecil Isbell, Sid Luckman, Bernie Masterson, Ace Parker, and Bob Waterfield.

Next week, we'll profile the QBs ranked 40-48.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:25 PM | Comments (1)

May 25, 2015

NBA Draft: Decisions, Decisions

As the NBA playoffs continues to wind down, the anticipation for the 2015 draft will slowly bubble and boil. We're now a month away from basketball's version of conversations about "needs," "upside," and all the other buzzwords that fill these events. With this week's draft lottery, another piece of the selection puzzle has been filled in.

But, as with any draft, there are still questions that haven't been answered. I know I have questions which probably won't get resolved until all 60 picks are in on June 25th. That doesn't mean they won't continue to bounce around in my brain for the next four-plus weeks. So I might as well throw some of them out into the open.

Top of the Draft: Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns?

For the first time in franchise history, the Minnesota Timberwolves had the lucky ping-pong ball. The team that went total rebuild last summer can now add an essential post player to their cadre. But which way do they go? Living in the Twin Cities, I've heard varying opinions on what the Wolves need to keep moving forward.

Okafor is the more polished offensive player. His 17.3 points per game were tops for the national champion Duke Blue Devils. However, his defensive (non-)prowess was exposed, especially during the latter stages of the NCAA tournament. The Wolves hope he can improve in that area because they've already had the power forward with questionable defensive efforts (Kevin Love).

Towns didn't have the numbers of his freshman counterpart, but he didn't have the same amount of opportunities. The highly-touted center showed off his length quite a bit over the season, getting more than 2 blocks a game. Towns also appeared to gain a bit of offensive confidence, reaching the 20-point mark twice during the NCAAs. If Minnesota selects him, they'll have to work on his offense. He also has to cut down on the fouls (he fouled out of six games this past season).

Lottery Picks: How High is Justise Winslow's Stock?

When the 2014 crop of high school graduates were selecting their schools of choice, scouts pointed to Duke's class as one of the best in the country (what's new?). Three of those same frosh players decided to leave school one year later to take their chances at the next level. Going into Durham, people knew about Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones. Coming out of the Research Triangle, people are lining up to get to know Justise Winslow.

The Houston, TX native was third in scoring and second in rebounding throughout the campaign. However, in the second half of the season (including the postseason run) he displayed a lot of intangible goodies that NBA scouts drool over. The combination of Winslow's clutch shooting, athleticism, and "glue guy" attributes apparently go well with his 6'6", 225-lb. frame. Now, the top 15-20 prep prospect has blossomed into a top 5-10 draft projection in just one year.

Overall Draft: Where Will Calipari's Disciples Get Selected?

This will be an interesting case study. In football, the transition from college to pro can be stunted when a player comes from a different "system" (spread, zone read, triple option, etc.). College basketball has its own "systems" (Princeton offense, Syracuse zone, pressure defense, etc.). However, I can't recall any college program having enough top-level talent to go to a platooning system. Calipari's vision only lasted for this season, but it may have a lasting effect on where his players fall in the draft order. Will some teams be a little gun shy, wondering how that talent will truly translate over 30-35 minutes a night? Will others be enticed with the fact that players can give up minutes and be relegated to background roles?

It wouldn't be a shock to see all seven of Kentucky's prospects get picked up. But which big man will be the next one chosen after Towns? And was this decision a mistake for one of the Harrison twins?

Wild Card Potential: Will Philadelphia Get Trade-Happy ... Again?

As much as I don't get how the Sixers' front office is running their franchise, the one thing they have in bulk are draft picks. Over the next five years (from now until 2020), Philly has 17 (SEVENTEEN) additional picks in their pocket due to trades. There's no way they can keep that much going forward. So, the next logical step ... warm up the "wheel and deal" strategy. The organization could have construed an all-out haul, but the Lakers and Heat did not cooperate by giving up first-round picks.

After the Sixers make the third overall selection, they can sit back and wait for a while. Then again, they could trade their way back up into the first round. You can do that when you have five (FIVE!) slots in the 30 made available for round two. But why stop there? I can't really that every player on the roster is safe. Maybe Joel Embiid and a second rounder head out of town. Who knows? This does appear to have become the basketball version of "Card Sharks." How about we change that Eight of Hearts to a Jack of Clubs?

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:54 PM | Comments (0)

May 21, 2015

Does Choking Truly Exist in the NHL?

Choker.

It's an easy label to put on a team that's blown a series lead. The San Jose Sharks blew a 3-0 series lead to the LA Kings, and now that's the stigma they've earned. Just last week, the Washington Capitals blew their 3-1 lead over the New York Rangers, and now the choke tag has come out.

But when you look closer at these series — along with the way forcing a Game 7 down 3-0 or 3-1 seems to happen more and more since the 05-06 lockout — perhaps it's worth it to re-examine this stigma.

The San Jose Sharks earned their 3-0 lead by destroying the Kings in the first two games. These were blowouts of the worst kind, and it was clear the Kings didn't come prepared. However, the real Kings team emerged after that harsh wake-up call, and they marched straight through to a Stanley Cup. No other team took pushed them to an elimination game.

The Washington Capitals have a history of blowing 3-1 series leads over the course of their franchise. However, they lost to the team that won the Presidents' Trophy and has arguably the best goalie in the league — and certainly the most battle-tested in terms of succeeding in high-stakes situations. The series itself saw few goals and it took overtime to decide the winner, making it essentially a series of coin flips.

Parity, realignment, and the new playoff structure have changed the safety of series leads in the NHL. Prior to expansion in the 1990s, 3-0 series leads were often between top seeds and lower seeds — and when 3/4 of the league makes the playoffs, the discrepancy between best and worst made comebacks all the rarer. However, a mere 15 points separated the Rangers from the eighth-place Pittsburgh Penguins, and five of the eight Eastern playoff teams were only separated by three points.

Choker is still a label that could be applied when extreme situations occurred. However, the nature of matchups, particularly in the ultra-competitive Eastern Conference (that in itself is a surprise, since the Western Conference was so dominant for the past decade) meant that just about every series was a pick-em.

Why is this important? For fans, losing is frustrating but blowing a series lead can sometimes feel catastrophic for the fanbase. In a worst-case scenario, a GM like San Jose's Doug Wilson overreacts and winds up doing more damage rather than rationally assessing and moving forward. For Capitals fans, this year proved to be a building season, and while the result is disappointing, there are plenty of reasons to expect that they're a few smart moves away from being as good or better next year.

No one likes losing. No one likes blowing a series lead. But there's a big difference between a true choke and losing a coin-flip series. Once the emotions die down, a little perspective can put that disappointment into place — and look ahead at next season without overreacting.

Posted by Mike Chen at 4:07 PM | Comments (0)

May 19, 2015

Best QBs in History: Pre-Modern Era

I've been studying NFL history throughout my adult life. It's a journey that began the first time I watched my dad's copy of NFL's Greatest Hits on VHS, accelerating when I read Total Football II, and continuing when I began sportswriting over a decade ago.

Something I've never done is to publish my list of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Sparked by a project at Football Perspective, I'm finally stepping into the ring. But because I've done so much research over the years, this is not a simple list. Instead, I'll present my choices as a series of articles, highlighting about 10 players per list, and counting down to number one.

I will acknowledge upfront: unless you're a history buff, this first installment is likely to bore you. Check back with me in a week or two! Here, I'm covering quarterbacks who played the majority of their careers before 1946. That's the date the Pro Football Hall of Fame uses for the Modern Era, and it's a good cutoff for two reasons. One is the end of World War II and the return of players who served in the military. It's difficult to take stats from, say, 1944 at face value, because many of the best players were overseas. The other is specialization. Prior to the late '40s, everyone played offense, defense, and special teams. In 1943, Sammy Baugh famously led the league in passing (as a QB on offense), interceptions (as a safety on defense), and punting (on special teams). Players were evaluated on their overall performance, so it's sometimes difficult to tell whether an all-pro was really a respected QB, or whether he was just a great kicker. This is particularly important for quarterbacks, who prior to the T formation were usually run-first tailbacks, and had little in common with modern QBs.

Thus, the pre-Modern QBs get a separate, unranked list. I have little doubt that Sammy Baugh was one of the 10 best quarterbacks in history, and Sid Luckman a pretty easy top 20. But rather than trying to compare them to recent players, they're profiled here. We'll look at 11 early QBs, in alphabetical order.

Sammy Baugh
Washington, 1937-52
21,886 yards, 187 TD, 203 INT, 72.2 rating

It's convenient that Baugh leads off alphabetically, because he was surely the best QB to play extensively before the Modern Era. Baugh's stats are unimpressive in a modern context, but he retired with nearly every major passing record: completions, yards, touchdowns, and more. He quarterbacked two championship teams, and he was a charter member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, one of only two QBs in the inaugural HOF Class of 1963.

Slingin' Sammy, they called him. Historians credit Baugh with an offensive revolution: passing as a non-desperation strategy. He led the NFL in passing yards four times and in passer rating six times. Baugh was the dominant passer of his generation, and he excelled both as a single-wing tailback (prior to 1944) and a T formation quarterback (afterwards). Unsurprisingly, Baugh made a smooth transition into the post-war Modern era; 1947-49 were among his best seasons. During that three-year stretch, Baugh passed for 2,000 yards more (7,440) than NFL runner-up Tommy Thompson (5,372), with the most touchdown passes (52 to Sid Luckman's 48), and an 84.3 passer rating that would still be respectable today. He is the one QB from the '30s and early '40s whose skills were suited to modern football. Baugh was the greatest QB of his era, and probably among the top 10 of all time.

Baugh was also a decent runner, a good defensive back, and the best punter of his generation. Because of his value in every phase of the game, Baugh is commonly ranked as the greatest player in NFL history.

Dutch Clark
Portsmouth Spartans, 1931-32; Detroit Lions, 1934-38
1,507 yards, 11 TD, 26 INT, 40.3 rating

Earl "Dutch" Clark was a hero on the football field. He was a six-time all-pro in seven seasons, and he joined Baugh as the only signal-callers in the first Hall of Fame class. But he wasn't a quarterback in any modern understanding of the word. Clark passed for about as many yards in his career as Kirk Cousins did in 2014. Clark was a good passer for his era, but at that time, QBs weren't judged on their passing. Clark led the NFL in rushing touchdowns four times, and he had a famous 40-yard touchdown run in the 1935 NFL Championship Game.

Clark was also a talented dropkicker, who led the NFL in scoring three times. The story about Clark which is told everywhere is that his eyesight was so weak he had trouble seeing his receivers. Clark was obviously a brilliant player, but he also represents why I've chosen to separate modern quarterbacks from their predecessors. How could I possibly compare Dutch Clark to John Elway or Aaron Rodgers?

Ed Danowski
New York Giants, 1934-41
3,817 yards, 37 TD, 44 INT, 58.1 rating

Quarterbacks throw much harder now than they did in the NFL's early years. Part of what distinguished Sammy Baugh is that he was the first player to go out there and throw missiles. Ed Danowski threw precise, floating touch passes. The Giants won the NFL's Eastern Division in five of Danowski's eight seasons, including two NFL titles, in 1934 and '38. During his tenure, the Giants went 59-27-6 in the regular season. In 1935, Danowski led the NFL in most passing statistics, including completions, yards, TDs, and passer rating. But his most famous moment came a year earlier, as a rookie in the 1934 NFL Championship — better known as the Sneakers Game. On a field blanketed by ice, the Giants switched from cleats to sneakers for better footing. Danowski passed and ran for a touchdown in New York's 30-13 victory.

Unlike many of his peers in the 1930s, Danowski was fairly one-dimensional. He was an okay runner and a pretty good punter, but he scored only 4 rushing TDs, he didn't kick field goals, and he was not an impact player on defense.

Paddy Driscoll
Decatur Staleys, 1920; Chicago Cardinals, 1920-25; Chicago Bears, 1926-29
16 pass TD, 25 rush TD

Few stats were kept in the 1920s. John Driscoll was an effective passer and runner, but particularly distinguished himself as a kicker and punter. He led the NFL in field goals four times, and he successfully dropkicked a 50-yarder in 1924. Driscoll was small, even for the '20s (5-11, 160), but he had mastered the art of dropkicking.

You sometimes hear old quarterbacks discussed as triple threats. Prior to 1950 or so, quarterback was a different position. We apply that term to Driscoll because he took the ball from center and directed the offense, but he was truly a run-pass-kick triple threat. In 1925, Driscoll's Cardinals won the NFL Championship with a record of 11-2-1 — there's a weird story to the championship, actually — and the Cardinals that season outscored their opponents by an average of 16-5. In this low-scoring environment, teams would sometimes punt, or dropkick a field goal attempt, before fourth down. Driscoll scored a lot of points on those dropkicks. He was enshrined in the PFHOF in 1965.

Benny Friedman
Cleveland Bulldogs, 1927; Detroit Wolverines, 1928; New York Giants, 1929-31; Brooklyn Dodgers, 1932-34
66 pass TD, 18 rush TD

It's a shame we don't have complete stats for Benny Friedman, because he was the one truly exceptional passer of the 1920s. It's common to hear Sammy Baugh credited as the first great passer, but that's probably not right. Baugh was a great passer, and his influence popularized passing as a legitimate offensive strategy. But Friedman, by all accounts, was a magnificent passer, without peer among his contemporaries.

Friedman was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2005, more than 20 years after his death. At least three reasons contributed to the long wait. First, and most obviously, there were very limited passing statistics during his career. At a time when baseball, boxing, and college football ruled the sporting landscape, stats were among the few ways for players to make a mark that would be remembered. But they simply don't exist for this period. Friedman's HOF page reads, "Although official statistics were not kept, he is believed to have completed more than half his passes, at a time when 35 percent was considered a very good performance." Friedman led the NFL in passing TDs four years in a row, and in rushing TDs once. But if we had more comprehensive stats, we could outline exactly how far ahead of his contemporaries Benny was as a passer.

A second factor in Friedman's relative lack of recognition is that his teams never won a championship. The Bulldogs and Wolverines went a combined 15-6-2 with Friedman, and Tim Mara bought the Wolverines in 1929 just to get Friedman for the Giants. New York went 13-1-1, but Green Bay went 12-0-1 and was awarded the title. The Packers did beat the Giants, 20-6, the week before Thanksgiving. The Giants went 13-4 the next year, but again lost the title to Green Bay. Friedman's teams were always good, but never the best.

As a third consideration, Friedman's HOF induction was probably delayed by his own personality. Friedman bragged about his own greatness in a way that turned people off. But he was right. Friedman was by far the best passer of his era, as well as a successful runner and kicker. He led the NFL in extra points in 1928 and '29.

Arnie Herber
Green Bay Packers, 1930-40; New York Giants, 1944-45
8,041 yards, 81 TD, 106 INT, 50.1 rating

Don Hutson joined the Packers in 1935. Hutson was the greatest receiver before Jerry Rice, and some people will argue with you about the "before Jerry Rice" qualification. Herber and Hutson flourished together, but Herber was successful before ever meeting Don Hutson. He played on championship teams in 1930 and '31 — although he only played three games in '31 — and led the league in passing yards and TDs in both 1932 and '34.

Herber's greatest season was 1936. He passed for a record-high 1,239 yards, with 11 TDs, and he led the NFL in passer rating. Herber threw two TD passes, including a 48-yarder to Hutson, during Green Bay's 21-6 victory in that season's championship game. Herber was also the primary QB on the Packers' 1939 championship team, making him a four-time champ in addition to his three passing titles.

Cecil Isbell
Green Bay Packers, 1938-42
5,945 yards, 61 TD, 52 INT, 72.6 rating

Isbell picked up where Herber left off. The two split time in '39 (Herber passed 139 times, Isbell 103), Isbell took about 2/3 of the work in '40, and then Herber retired. Isbell never won a championship without Herber (he did throw a TD pass in the '39 championship win), but the Packers went 24-7-2 during his three years as the full-time starting QB, roughly equivalent to 12-4 over 16 games.

Isbell was actually far more efficient than Herber, in every major stat. He was also a much better runner. However Isbell — unlike Herber — is not in the Hall of Fame, because of (1) speculation that his success was a product of throwing to Don Hutson, and (2) his very short career. Isbell led the NFL in passing yards, TDs, and rating in 1941 and '42 ... and then he retired to become a coach at Purdue.

Sid Luckman
Chicago Bears, 1939-50
14,686 yards, 137 TD, 132 INT, 75.0 rating

Sid Luckman was the Joe Montana or Tom Brady of the 1940s. Like Montana and Brady, he had great stats, but truly made his mark in the postseason. Luckman led the Bears to four championships, in 1940, '41, '43, and '46. In the '43 championship game, a victory over Sammy Baugh and Washington, Luckman passed for 286 yards and 5 touchdowns, rushed for another 64 yards, and the Bears won by 20 points. Altogether, Luckman was 5-1 as a starter in the postseason.

But Luckman's reputation wasn't built on rings alone. He was the first successful T formation passer, and he led the NFL in both passing yards and TDs in 1943, '45, and '46. Although Luckman was a standout runner in college, he was not a productive runner at the pro level. But he was a good defensive back and a pretty good punter. And other than Sammy Baugh, Luckman was the best passer of his era.

Bernie Masterson
Chicago Bears, 1934-40
3,366 yards, 34 TD, 38 INT, 57.2 rating

Bernie Masterson is the player in this study about whom I know the least. I only included him because he ranked 70th in Chase Stuart's all-time quarterback ratings last year. Masterson was a downfield passer with a high average (8.2 yards per attempt, 21.6 per completion), and he played on three teams that reached the NFL title game. The Bears went 59-19-3 during Masterson's years with the team. Masterson retired with -69 rushing yards (which includes sack yardage). Depending upon where you draw the line between quarterback and running back, there are a number of contemporary players who might rate ahead of Masterson.

Ace Parker
Brooklyn Dodgers, 1937-1941; Boston Yanks, 1945; New York Yankees, 1946
4,698 yards, 30 TD, 50 INT, 53.1 rating

Ace Parker was the last great quarterback who wasn't a great passer, a '30s-style player with enough talent to succeed into the mid-1940s. Parker was NFL MVP in 1940. He threw 10 TD passes that year, second-most in the league, with 2 rush TDs and 2 receiving TDs. On special teams and defense, he led the league in extra points, interceptions (6), interception return yards (146), and INT return TDs (1). He was also the Dodgers' punter, with a 38.3 average on 49 attempts. Parker was not a good quarterback in the modern understanding of the term, but he was a dynamic all-around player who contributed in every phase of the game. Parker was not fast, but he rushed for over 1,000 yards, far more than contemporaries like Baugh (325) and Luckman (-239).

Bob Waterfield
Cleveland/Los Angeles Rams, 1945-52
11,849 yards, 97 TD, 128 INT, 55.0 rating

This is a strange case. Waterfield played mostly in the Modern Era. But he was a multi-dimensional threat who also contributed on defense and special teams. Compared to modern QBs, he wouldn't make my top 40. He might sneak into the top 50, but it would be touch-and-go, and I don't want to rate a player of Waterfield's stature — a Hall of Famer — so low. Instead, I'm including him in the unranked listing here.

I don't particularly want to argue that Waterfield was overrated, but it's easy to see why he would have been. Waterfield was the Rams' star when they were the only NFL team on the West Coast, and he married a movie star (Jane Russell). He made a big first impression in 1945, but never quite replicated the success of that amazing rookie year, when he led the Rams to their first-ever championship. Waterfield also had a very short career, eight seasons.

Bob Waterfield was a good punter, a very good defensive back, and an excellent placekicker. As a passer, he's difficult to evaluate. His best seasons were 1945 and '51. But there's a problem with those two great years. In 1945, Waterfield was facing wartime competition. Sammy Baugh had a 109.9 passer rating that season, and set a record for completion percentage (70.3%) that lasted nearly four decades. The following season, with the war over, Baugh's passer rating was 54.2. Waterfield was a great player in '45, but (1) his stats were inflated by the lower-level competition, and (2) a lot of his value was on defense (6 INT) and special teams (40.6 punting average, led NFL in extra points).

In Waterfield's other great season, 1951, he might have been the second-best QB on his own team. The Rams were an offensive powerhouse in the early '50s, featuring two Hall of Fame receivers (Tom Fears and Crazy Legs Hirsch) in their primes, plus the Bull Elephant Backfield with Dan Towler, Tank Younger, and Dick Hoerner. Waterfield was actually a part-time player, platooning with Norm Van Brocklin. Sharing time with Van Brocklin is nothing to be ashamed of, and both QBs produced exceptional stats. But it's plausible that Waterfield's success was a product more of the system and the talent on the field than Waterfield himself. The Rams won the title game that year, with Van Brocklin throwing the team's only touchdown pass, a game-winning 73-yarder to Fears in the fourth quarter.

Perhaps Waterfield's most remarkable skill as a passer was his ability to avoid sacks: his sack yardage is among the very best all-time, maybe even top of the list if we had complete data. Unfortunately, Van Brocklin's rate is nearly as good, again raising questions about whether this was a special talent of Waterfield's, or simply a product of the Rams' offensive system.

It's hard to separate Waterfield's reputation as an excellent all-around player from his accomplishments on offense, and it's difficult to evaluate his stats in a unique offensive environment, especially over such a short career. He was obviously a good quarterback, but beyond that, I can't rate him and pretend to be confident that he's ranked correctly. Let's simply acknowledge that he was a valuable player in an era when QBs did more than just throw passes.

* * *

Next Tuesday, we'll begin examining the 101 best quarterbacks of the modern era.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:24 PM | Comments (0)

May 18, 2015

Why a Warriors' Title Might Be Inevitable

It's been an absolutely wild second round of the playoffs. From buzzer-beaters to more hacking-a-player to comebacks that defied logic and a level of suspense in each series that nearly outstripped that of seven of the eight first-round contests combined, the playoffs now have reached an exclusive state.

From here on out, there's only one game on per night. Where teams could perhaps afford to have a bad quarter or bad game against lesser opposition they were likely to finish off anyway, they now have to be dialed in at all times. At this stage, only the elite remain.

In theory, the four teams that remain should all be able to win eight more games and take home the title. After all, Cleveland is the only team that hasn't won two thirds of its games this season, and it has been playing nearly .800 ball including playoffs after starting 19-20.

In reality, and especially after the Rockets' dominant win to complete a comeback from down three games to one against the Clippers, it would take an amazing, unexpected effort for Golden State to lose in these playoffs.

Let's start with the teams in the Eastern Conference Finals. Yes, they're the two best teams in that bad conference by some margin. However, neither has looked much like a title contender so far in the playoffs.

For Cleveland, there are certainly some extenuating circumstances. After Kelly Olynyk separated Kevin Love's shoulder in Game 4 of the Boston series, it dramatically decreased the Cavs' ability to spread the floor and get as many open looks for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.

Accordingly, against Chicago, LeBron didn't have the type of series game averages of 26-11-9 would indicate, shooting for an effective field goal percentage of just 41 percent, and just 11 percent from three. His usage rate was an enormously high 38.4 percent.

Of course, LeBron basically had to carry all that weight with Irving resembling a walking injury report. Against Atlanta, the Cavs will need players like Iman Shumpert, Matthew Dellavedova and Tristan Thompson to get some points as they did against Chicago. But after that, Golden State does just about everything better than Cleveland except getting to the rim.

As for the Hawks, their series against against Washington felt a lot like their first-round series with Brooklyn. They won it in six games, made enough plays at the end of games to advance, but still didn't look at all like the team that was so much fun to watch on offense in the regular season. The absence of Thabo Sefolosha after he was taken out by NYPD looks to have hurt the team more than anticipated.

All season long, one theory has been that the Hawks' most important player wasn't Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap or Al Horford, but Kyle Korver, since his ultra-reliable outside shot opened up everything else for the team's stellar ball movement.

That statement appears to be getting a workout, as Korver has been especially poor from behind the arc in the postseason, and was only good for 29 percent from long-range against Washington. If Atlanta even struggled with John Wall out for half of the Wizards series, how would it possibly deal with the Splash Brothers at full strength?

Where Memphis represented a challenge to Golden State in its stylistic differences, Houston is probably not going to grind the game out into an old-school paint battle. Houston's going to want to run and shoot as many threes as the Warriors will. And that plays into the hands of the better defensive team, which is Golden State.

Don't get me wrong, the Rockets' defense was fantastic in Games 5 through 7 against the league-best Clippers' offense, but they're facing a group that's not going to play to their strengths on that end of the floor.

Against L.A., with Chris Paul still feeling the effects of the hamstring injury he picked up against San Antonio, the strength of the Clippers offense was their frontcourt, also the defensive strength of the Rockers. And while James Harden has improved immensely on defense from this time last year, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and the rest of Golden State's perimeter players have to be salivating about facing a Houston team without Patrick Beverley.

I don't always put a lot of stock in the regular season records between teams about to meet in a playoff series, but Golden State and Houston's regular season contests are impossible to overlook.

In four meetings, Golden State outscored Houston by an average score of 115-95, and no game was closer than 11 points. They haven't played since January, but Beverley played in three of the four games. A sweep with that margin is improbable, but a 4-1 series score with an average margin of victory in double digits seems quite possible.

Against Memphis, Golden State got punched in the mouth in Games 2 and 3 and couldn't play the style of basketball that won it 67 games in the regular season. In Game 4, the Warriors returned with an extraordinary defensive performance en route to winning in six games. After that, it's probably all downhill from here for the Warriors.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:46 AM | Comments (0)

May 13, 2015

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 11

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson's gamble in the pits paid off and he captured his second win of the year, winning the Spongebob Squarepants 400 at Kansas.

"We stayed out to win it," Johnson said. "It's too bad no one stayed up to see it.

"I called my wife Chandra after the race, but accidentally Facetimed her. She wasn't too happy about that, and I'm not sure she'll ever forgive me. But I'm hoping. Let's just say we both seriously need some 'make up.'"

2. Kevin Harvick — Harvick chased Jimmie Johnson to the finish line at Kansas, but was unable to catch him, instead settling for the runner-up finish, his sixth second-place finish of the year.

"Johnson edged me by less than a second," Harvick said. "For a race that lasted well past sundown, it was a true 'Nick at Night.'"

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt came home third in the SpongeBob SquarePants 400, as Hendrick Motorsports driver took three of the top four spots, with Jimmie Johnson capturing the win.

"Hendrick has flexed its muscles in the last two weeks," Earnhardt said. "Our engines are a direct reflection of Rick Hendrick, because the engines, much like Rick, are 'loaded.'"

4. Joey Logano — Logano started on the pole at Kansas and finished fifth in the SpongeBob Squarepants 400. He is fourth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 62 out of first.

"Even though I didn't win," Logano said, "I had a great time racing in the SpongeBob Squarepants 400. It was the closest thing to childhood I've ever experienced."

5. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex pitted for fuel only during the race's final caution, a decision that made him vulnerable to car's behind him with fresh tires. Truex still finished ninth, earning his 10th top-10 of the year.

"We had a car capable of winning," Truex said. "We led a race-high 95 laps, but lost the lead after a mistake in the pits. One would think that in a car sponsored by Furniture Row, we'd be able to 'sit' on a lead. But it was not to be, and I can't 'couch' my disappointment. Now my detractors will continue to say I can't win a race, a criticism that a victory would surely put to bed."

6. Kurt Busch — Busch took eighth at Kansas, posting his third top-10 of the year.

"I've got a lot in common with SpongeBob SquarePants," Busch said. "We both have a teammate named 'Patrick,' and neither 'Patrick' has won a Sprint Cup race."

7. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished seventh in the SpongeBob Squarepants 400, scoring his seventh top-10 of the year.

"First the 'SpongeBob Squarepants 400," Keselowski said. "What's next? The 'Adventure Time 500?' If that's the case, the race will air on the 'Car Tune Network.'"

8. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished sixth at Kansas, posting his sixth top-10 result of the year. He is seventh in the points standings, 106 out of first.

"It was an otherwise disappointing day for Joe Gibbs Racing," Kenseth said. "Carl Edwards had the next best finish with a 20th. Carl has only one top-10 finish this year. I think Joe Gibbs has second thoughts about hiring him. With Carl in mind, if there's one thing Joe would like to see 'flipped,' it's the script."

9. Jamie McMurray — McMurray finished 13 at Kansas in the rain-delayed SpongeBob Squarepants 400.

"Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.'s spin brought out the last caution," McMurray said. "In SpongeBob speak, that's called going 'Skidward.'"

10. Aric Almirola — Almirola finished 11th at Kansas and is now 11th in the points standings, 125 out of first.

"What do you know?" Almirola said. "The 'SpongeBob SquarePants 400, a sea-themed NASCAR race. I've heard of 'mussel' cars, but this is ridiculous!"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:49 PM | Comments (0)

May 12, 2015

The Best Young Quarterbacks of 2015

Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the first two picks in last weekend's NFL draft. No one knows yet how well they'll transition to the NFL, but who are the quarterbacks they'll be compared to?

Two years ago, I looked at the best young QBs in the NFL, and I'm taking the same approach now, considering both age and experience. This time around, I've rated a group of 17 players who meet all of three conditions:

1. At least 50 pass attempts in 2014
2. At least 200 career pass attempts
3. Combined age (as of May 1, 2015) + years of experience less than or equal to 30

Thus, we're not including guys like Johnny Manziel, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Ryan Mallett, because we just haven't seen enough of them in the NFL to really evaluate those guys. And we're not looking at established 30-and-under QBs like Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. Those guys are known quantities, and we're really looking at players who are still prospects. The most notable omission might be Blaine Gabbert. He's still just 25, but he only threw 7 passes in 2014, and I don't think he's really a "prospect" any longer.

All stats show combined passing, rushing, and sacks, except NY/A, net yards per attempt, which includes passing and sacks but excludes rushing. Turnovers include interceptions and lost fumbles.

17. Ryan Lindley
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 516 yards, 5.2 NY/A, 56.8 rating, 2 TDs, 4 turnovers
Career Stats: 1,184 yards, 4.2 NY/A, 50.3 rating, 2 TDs, 13 turnovers

Lindley's stats don't include the playoff loss to Carolina, in which his 32 dropbacks produced 51 yards, a touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Rodney Harrison called Lindley "a third-string quarterback who looked scared to death back there." The team set a postseason record for fewest yards of offense (78).

The 2014 Cardinals went 6-0 with Carson Palmer, 5-3 with Drew Stanton, and 0-3 with Lindley. He was even worse in 2012, when he averaged 3.6 NY/A, with no touchdowns and 9 turnovers. I'd be surprised if he's on an NFL roster in 2015.

16. Case Keenum
Age: 27; NFL Seasons: 2.
2014 stats: 455 yards, 5.3 NY/A, 72.2 rating, 2 TDs, 3 turnovers
Career Stats: 2,957 yards, 5.6 NY/A, 76.8 rating, 12 TDs, 11 turnovers

Without trying to be mean to Ryan Lindley, there's a big gap between him and the rest of the list. Keenum is closer to #10 than to #17. But he's had a shot with two teams (Houston and St. Louis), and neither one sees him as more than a third-stringer or an emergency backup. He's gone back and forth between the two teams, most recently when the Rams traded a 7th-round draft pick to obtain him. Northwestern QB Trevor Siemian was a 7th-round selection last weekend, implying that Keenum and Siemian are equally valuable.

Keenum hasn't generated a lot of positive plays, and he's the oldest player on this list, so you wouldn't project a lot of development in his future. Most quarterbacks who are going to be good show it before they turn 27.

15. Austin Davis
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 1,858 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 85.1 rating, 12 TDs, 12 turnovers
Career Stats: 1,858 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 85.1 rating, 12 TDs, 12 turnovers

Like Keenum, he's competing for a backup spot with the Rams in 2015. St. Louis tendered Davis — a restricted free agent — at the lowest level after last season, meaning it wouldn't have required a draft pick for another team to sign him. Davis has spunk, but his decision-making last season was not NFL-level, and he was benched halfway through the season for Shaun Hill. Davis is probably good enough to hang around the league as a backup, but I'd be surprised if he's ever a regular starter again.

14. Blake Bortles
Age: 23; NFL Seasons: 1.
2014 stats: 2,982 yards, 4.8 NY/A, 69.5 rating, 11 TDs, 18 turnovers

No quarterback has succeeded in the Jaguars' system since David Garrard in 2010. It's hard to evaluate Bortles: did he play poorly as a rookie because he's a poor player, or because he was in a bad situation? Most likely, it's a little of both. We'll know a lot more about Bortles 12 months from now, when he's had a second season, and one in which the team has moved further in its rebuilding process.

One of Bortles' problems in 2014 was the pick-six: he had four interceptions returned for touchdowns, tied for the worst in the NFL. This is especially worrisome in combination with another problem: Bortles wasn't just inaccurate, he was inaccurate on short passes. An interception 40 yards downfield isn't good, but it's seldom a game-losing play. An INT at the line of scrimmage, returned to the end zone, is much harder to overcome — and that's what Bortles was doing. His 4.8 NY/A was the lowest of any QB last season, as was his 24.9% first down percentage. I believe the Jaguars' front office reached for a local player and QB, then the coaches compounded that mistake by playing Bortles before he was ready. Some of his weaknesses can be resolved with experience.

13. Derek Carr
Age: 24; NFL Seasons: 1.
2014 stats: 3,213 yards, 5.0 NY/A, 76.6 rating, 21 TDs, 16 turnovers

As a rookie, Derek Carr did a good job of avoiding negative plays. He had by far the lowest interception percentage among rookie quarterbacks (2.0%), and his sack percentage was among the best in the league, rookie or otherwise (3.9%). Those are rare qualities in a rookie, and they suggest a very good player.

But Carr wasn't very good in 2014, for a simple reason: he didn't do anything positive. It isn't enough to avoid negative plays, you have to generate some offense. Carr didn't take any chances downfield, and it just killed the Raiders offense. Lowest yards per completion, 2014 season, min. 1,000 passing yards:

35. Kyle Orton, 10.5
36. Blake Bortles, 10.4
37. Ryan Tannehill, 10.3
38. Jay Cutler, 10.3
39. Derek Carr, 9.4

Maybe Amari Cooper will help, but I don't think this is just about the receivers. A poor downfield passer can improve his accuracy and decision-making, but checkdown passers don't transform into mad bombers.

12. Geno Smith
Age: 24; NFL Seasons: 2.
2014 stats: 2,588 yards, 5.9 NY/A, 77.5 rating, 14 TDs, 16 turnovers
Career Stats: 5,685 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 71.5 rating, 32 TDs, 41 turnovers

I suppose most fans think Geno should rank lower than this, near the worst on the list. I understand that. I think he'll be done as a starter within the next two years.

But I'm not sure Geno's gotten a fair chance. He played badly his first two seasons, but he wasn't horrific — and he had an excuse: the Jets' offense was terrible. They didn't have a dynamic running game, their receivers were subpar, and the coaching staff never showed that it could put together a competent offense. The Jets' passing game was bad in the Mark Sanchez years, and it was bad when Michael Vick replaced Smith.

Sanchez and Vick both played reasonably well on other teams, but failed with the Jets. At a certain point, this looks like an organizational problem. So while I don't believe in Geno, I'm not convinced that his struggles are entirely his fault, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he becomes an asset in the future.

11. E.J. Manuel
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 2.
2014 stats: 846 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 80.3 rating, 6 TDs, 3 turnovers
Career Stats: 2,845 yards, 5.5 NY/A, 78.5 rating, 19 TDs, 15 turnovers

Typing up Manuel's 2014 stats for this piece, I was startled to find that he created twice as many TDs as turnovers. Manuel went 2-2 as starter in 2014, and when the Bills replaced him in the starting lineup, it wasn't an especially big deal. Obviously you're never going to get excited about Kyle Orton — he's fine, you can win with him, but he's never going to be Peyton Manning — but it's not like Manuel was a disaster.

I think teams got overconfident about young QBs right around the time Manuel was drafted. Cam Newton and Andy Dalton were immediately successful in 2011, then Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck were even better in 2012. When Manuel was the first QB drafted in 2013, people expected him to play like a Pro Bowler. That's not how the league typically works: Newton and Griffin and Wilson were exceptional, and we shouldn't dismiss players like EJ Manuel and Geno Smith just because they haven't become all-stars yet. Manuel is a gifted athlete, but he was seen as somewhat of a project when he was drafted. You don't give up on that kind of player after 14 games.

10. Kirk Cousins
Age: 26; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 1,660 yards, 7.7 NY/A, 86.4 rating, 10 TDs, 11 turnovers
Career Stats: 2,086 yards, 6.9 NY/A, 77.5 rating, 18 TDs, 23 turnovers

I can't see Cousins ever being a regular starter in the NFL, but he looks like a quality backup, and I wouldn't be surprised if he sustains a 10-year career in that role. Cousins had the highest NY/A in the NFL last year (min. 100 att.), even higher than Aaron Rodgers, but he also had a horrific turnover problem. Maybe it was the pressure of an unofficial audition to replace Robert Griffin III, and Cousins tried to do too much, but he made some really poor decisions in 2014. He went 1-4 as starter, after an 0-3 starting record the year before. Cousins can play, but he needs to take better care of the ball.

9. Zach Mettenberger
Age: 23; NFL Seasons: 1.
2014 stats: 1,278 yards, 6.5 NY/A, 83.4 rating, 8 TDs, 9 turnovers

Similar profile to Cousins: Mettenberger can play in the NFL, but he looks more like a backup than a starter. Obviously the Titans feel that way, since they drafted Mariota 2nd overall. Mettenberger didn't noticeably outplay Charlie Whitehurst last year, his biggest problem being a high turnover rate. That's normal, and fixable, for rookie quarterbacks. Mettenberger was a sixth-round draft choice, and Tom Brady notwithstanding, those guys seldom become star QBs. But Mettenberger has some moxie, and enough skills, that I expect him to stick around the league. Tennessee's receiving corps was pretty barren in 2014, and I'd be interested to see what Mettenberger can do with more talent around him.

8. Mike Glennon
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 2.
2014 stats: 1,375 yards, 6.1 NY/A, 83.3 rating, 10 TDs, 6 turnovers
Career Stats: 3,706 yards, 5.4 NY/A, 83.7 rating, 29 TDs, 19 turnovers

Glennon is a young player who's had some early success. He beat out Josh Freeman in 2013, and he outplayed Josh McCown in 2014. What are the odds that Jameis Winston will have a better career than Glennon? Winston is more likely, far more likely, to become a big star. But I think Glennon is more likely to still be in the NFL in 2025. His ceiling probably isn't as high as some of the players ranked below this, but there will always be a place in the league for guys who throw touchdowns and avoid interceptions.

7. Robert Griffin III
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 1,643 yards, 5.9 NY/A, 86.9 rating, 5 TDs, 10 turnovers
Career Stats: 8,859 yards, 6.3 NY/A, 90.6 rating, 48 TDs, 33 turnovers

Griffin has not played well the last two seasons. He's tentative and indecisive, looks like he's overthinking and trying too hard not to make a mistake. He's not seeing the field well — actually, I'm not sure he can see over the linemen — and he's too willing to take sacks. He doesn't move well within the pocket, and he's waiting for contact before trying to escape and roll outside. It's a bad scene, and he seems to be regressing. But I can't forget the incredible Robert Griffin we saw in 2012. As a reminder, here's what I wrote two years ago:

None of us know how Griffin will look when he returns from knee surgery. Maybe he'll never be the same player, a modern Greg Cook, a one-year wonder, a what-if story. But based on what he accomplished as a rookie, Robert Griffin III tops the list of the best young QBs in the NFL.

As a passer, Griffin threw four times as many TDs (20) as interceptions (5), broke the rookie record for passer rating, and led all qualified passers in yards per attempt (8.14). As a runner, he ranked in the top 20 in the NFL in rushing yards (815) and TDs (7). He passed for a higher rating than Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. He rushed for more yards than Michael Turner or DeAngelo Williams. His interception percentage (1.3%) was the best in the NFL, tied with Brady, and another rookie record, shattering the mark set by Charlie Batch in 1998 (2.0%). Griffin rushed for more TDs than Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller, or Matt Forte.

Keep in mind that Griffin did this with a receiving corps led by Pierre Garçon, 33-year-old Santana Moss, and someone named Leonard Hankerson. You might also remember that injuries (knee and head) caused Griffin to miss part or all of three games, and he basically put up all those numbers in a 14-game season. Simply as a football fan, I hope RG3 comes back healthy. The game is more interesting with him in it.

6. Nick Foles
Age: 26; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 2,157 yards, 6.5 NY/A, 81.4 rating, 13 TDs, 13 turnovers
Career Stats: 6,706 yards, 6.7 NY/A, 94.2 rating, 50 TDs, 25 turnovers

Foles followed his brilliant 2013 (27 TD, 2 INT, 119.2 passer rating) with an okay 2014, in which it wasn't obvious whether or not he outplayed Mark Sanchez. In the offseason, he was traded for Sam Bradford, with the Eagles throwing in a little extra to obtain the former number one pick.

But Russell Wilson and Foles are the only players on this list with twice as many TDs as turnovers. Here you've got a 26-year-old who's proven he can play in the NFL, and that he probably should be a starter. What's set Foles apart so far is his decision-making: he doesn't make a lot of negative plays. His first two seasons, Foles threw remarkably few interceptions. In 2014, he took a very low number of sacks. If Foles can bring those skills together — and that will probably be harder in St. Louis than Philadelphia — he'll be a Pro Bowler.

5. Ryan Tannehill
Age: 26; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 4,019 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 92.8 rating, 28 TDs, 14 turnovers
Career Stats: 11,042 yards, 6.0 NY/A, 84.0 rating, 67 TDs, 53 turnovers

Tannehill is making progress. He's gotten a little better every year, overcoming questionable support from his offensive line and receiving corps. The good news is, the team is serious about providing Tannehill with some weapons. The Mike Wallace experiment didn't work out, so this year, Brian Hartline and Wallace are gone, replaced by Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, and first-round draft pick DeVante Parker, who join Jarvis Landry, coming off a productive rookie season. Tight end Charles Clay is gone, replaced by former Browns TE Jordan Cameron. There may be an adjustment period for the new personnel, but the players are there. Tannehill is a great athlete, a good runner with a strong arm. He's already an average QB, and the bet here is that his best seasons are still ahead of him.

The concern with Tannehill has always been his reluctance to throw downfield. I don't know how much of this is coaching, how much is his WR group, and how much is the quarterback, but at some point, he's got to open things up vertically. Make that step, and he could be a special player. Don't make that step, and he could be Alex Smith.

4. Teddy Bridgewater
Age: 22; NFL Seasons: 1.
2014 stats: 2,879 yards, 6.1 NY/A, 85.2 rating, 15 TDs, 12 turnovers

Of all the rookie QBs in 2014, Teddy Bridgewater showed the most promise. He produced yardage, he ran effectively, he didn't turn the ball over a lot. The Vikings have spent years struggling in search of effective quarterback play, partly due to the failings of their receiving corps. Last season, with Adrian Peterson unexpectedly absent, Bridgewater managed the offense — not in a way that will make anyone forget Fran Tarkenton, or even Daunte Culpepper — but in a way that bodes well for his future.

I don't see an Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson in Bridgewater, but Viking fans have reason for optimism.

3. Cam Newton
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 4.
2014 stats: 3,366 yards, 5.8 NY/A, 82.1 rating, 23 TDs, 17 turnovers
Career Stats: 15,857 yards, 6.4 NY/A, 85.4 rating, 115 TDs, 65 turnovers

Newton battled injury through most of the 2014 season, leading to career lows in most major statistics. He also worked with a rebuilding receiving corps, with work-in-progress rookie Kelvin Benjamin but without reliable veteran Steve Smith. The Panthers had the worst offense in the NFL before drafting Newton: they were 32nd in yards, and 32nd in points. They've never given their young QB a lot of weapons (though perhaps that will change in 2015, with Devin Funchess and Benjamin). And yet, every year of his career — including his injury-shortened 2014 — Newton has passed for over 3,000 yards and rushed for over 500 more. Every year, he has thrown more TDs than INTs, with a passer rating over 80.

Carolina has won back-to-back division titles, the first team ever to do so in the NFC South, and last season, the Panthers won a playoff game for the first time since the 2005 season. People criticize Newton because he's the face of the read option movement, because he's a black quarterback and that still bothers some people, and because sometimes he's weird in press conferences. He's a hell of a player.

2. Russell Wilson
Age: 26; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 4,082 yards, 6.5 NY/A, 95.0 rating, 26 TDs, 7 turnovers
Career Stats: 11,110 yards, 6.7 NY/A, 98.6 rating, 83 TDs, 34 turnovers

The lack of respect for Wilson, among casual fans, is stunning. Other than being short, Wilson checks all the boxes. He's a great athlete, he's smart, he's good with the press and the public, he's an asset in the locker room. He's never missed the playoffs, he won a Super Bowl ring, and he's the first QB in a decade to appear in back-to-back Super Bowls. In 2014, he ranked among the NFL's top 10 in both net yardage and passer rating. And he did that with a receiving corps led by Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse.

What could he do with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, or Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate? Would he be unstoppable in a dome? How much better will he be with a little more experience? Wilson is a great player, and I don't know how anyone misses that. I did see Wilson appear to lose focus sometimes last season, making uncharacteristic mistakes, but I suspect that will happen less often with maturity and experience. I've written more than once that I believe Wilson, barring a career-altering injury, will be a Hall of Famer.

1. Andrew Luck
Age: 25; NFL Seasons: 3.
2014 stats: 4,873 yards, 7.2 NY/A, 96.5 rating, 43 TDs, 22 turnovers
Career Stats: 13,228 yards, 6.4 NY/A, 86.6 rating, 98 TDs, 56 turnovers

Andrew Luck was okay as a rookie in 2012. He was good the next year, and he was great in 2014. He's improving, quickly and dramatically. Everything you want a quarterback to do well, he does well. He's not the runner Wilson and Newton are, but Luck can run: he averages 300 yards and 4 TDs per season. Luck is very bright, and he appears totally dedicated to becoming the best quarterback in the NFL. He has all the physical tools — big, athletic, strong arm — and he seems capable of eliminating every weakness from his game. In 2014, Luck set career bests for passing yards, TDs, TD/INT +/-, completion percentage, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, TD%, passer rating, and sack percentage.

He's still a little wild sometimes, so he'll need to cut down on turnover rate, and he didn't play well in December and January. That could be a health issue, or cold weather, or something else. He set a career-high in fumbles, so that's an area to correct. And the thing is, I'm confident he will. I see a lot of parallels between Luck and the man he replaced in Indianapolis, Peyton Manning. Luck is a big-play QB, and as he learns more about NFL defenses and develops relationships with his receivers, he'll probably become the best QB in the game.

* * *

I have no interest in writing about DeflateGate, because it's a stupid scandal. Tom Brady's four-game suspension is totally consistent with Roger Goodell's approach to discipline: it's based on evidence that doesn't meet legal or scientific standards, aimed at a high-profile scapegoat, and designed to placate public opinion, not to improve the game.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:23 PM | Comments (0)

May 11, 2015

Best Non-Conference Games of 2015

Let's face it: when we talk about the best non-conference matchups, the list is lacking.

There's no Texas vs. Texas A&M. No Kansas vs. Missouri. No Backyard Brawl, as well. And, no matter how good the matchups are this year, these schools need to find a way to rekindle their rivalries. College football will be better off for their renewals.

We do have some pretty intriguing non-conference showdowns though this season, especially right at the start of the season. Start salivating fans, here's five of the best matchups to watch this season.

Oregon at Michigan State (Sept. 12) — This was a great game last year in Eugene and this year's showdown in East Lansing should be fantastic, as well, as both teams attempt to make an early claim to their College Football Playoff resumes. The intrigue lies with the new faces on both sides.It's an immediate challenge for Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams as he faces what should be a nasty Spartan defense, though this will also be a challenge for new defensive coordinators Harlan Bennett and Mike Tressel, as they attempt to fill the void of Broyles Award winner and new Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi. Whoever wins the battle of the trenches between the Oregon offense and the Michigan State defense is the likely winner.

Louisville vs. Auburn (in Atlanta, Sept. 5) — So let's get this one straight here. Bobby Petrino, who once was offensive coordinator at Auburn, leaves Auburn for Louisville and is secretly courted by Auburn officials behind everyone's back, including then-Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville. Petrino then leaves Louisville for the Atlanta Falcons, only to leave a year later, go through turmoil, end back in Louisville and now goes to the home of the Falcons to face the school that tried to lure him from Louisville in the midnight hours to face the current Auburn coach that was picked over him in the last coaching search.

If you got through that, you can understand the drama in the game before the players even take the field. And if that's not enough, imagine what could've been if former Auburn BCS title game MVP Michael Dyer had an extra year of eligibility left at Louisville. My gosh. You can't make this stuff up.

Oklahoma at Tennessee (Sept. 12) — This is the type of game that indicates just where a program stands early on in the year. Oklahoma is fresh off of a season that was disappointing by Sooner standards and a bowl game humiliation by Clemson that was disappointing by anyone's standards. The Sooners should come in with a serious chip on their shoulders this season, which usually produces dangerously good teams under Bob Stoops. They face a very hungry team ... and fan base, in Tennessee. After several years of average to below-average results, the Vols are hungry to return back to the top of the SEC. Beating Oklahoma sends a message that Tennessee has arrived. Losing to them still says there's still a few steps to go.

Arizona State at Texas A&M (Houston, Sept. 5) — Let's face it, it's a home game for the Aggies, despite it being at NRG Stadium. Regardless, this again could be an early indicator of where these two programs stack up. Todd Graham has the Sun Devils moving in the right direction and appears ready to make a run at the Pac-12 South after falling short last year in a Territorial Cup loss to rival Arizona. I really like D.J. Foster, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and decided to stay for his senior year. The Aggies are trying to make noise again in the SEC West after starting out strong but stumbling at the end of the year. A&M's Kyle Allen will have to step up immediately and shine, while the Aggie defense, under new defensive coordinator John Chavis, must make instant improvement.

Wisconsin vs Alabama (Dallas, Sept. 5) — The Big Ten/SEC rivalry will get off to a nice start in Jerry World. The Badgers have a new coach in Paul Chryst, but what's to be expected is the same: Wisconsin will try to win the line battle and run the ball all day against the Tide. The Badgers were successful in their last attempt against a SEC defense, knocking off Auburn in the Outback Bowl. However, Alabama's strength remains in their front seven defensively. Wisconsin will have to target the Tide secondary to keep their defense on their toes.

Alabama, meanwhile, is still trying to figure themselves out offensively. Derrick Henry returns to lead the 'Bama ground game, but so far the QB battle remains to be decided and the receiving corps has to find someone to fill Amari Cooper's shoes, much easier said than done. There's a lot of questions in the air for Alabama, but too much talent to assume the worst in Tuscaloosa.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:58 AM | Comments (0)

May 6, 2015

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 10

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson started third at Talladega as Hendrick Motorsports cars took four of the top five spots in qualifying. Johnson took the runner-up spot behind HMS teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

"What do you know?" Johnson said. "On a weekend when many high-schoolers were off to proms, it was 'Junior Prom' at Talladega, and I escorted Dale right to the finish line.

2. Kevin Harvick — Harvick qualified 24th at Talladega and struggled to find speed for much of the day. Then, the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Chevy received front-end damage after being caught up in a lap 47 accident. Despite his troubles, Harvick scored a solid eighth-place finish and remained atop the Sprint Cup points standings.

"I'm not thrilled," Harvick said, "but I'm 'Happy.' Even when I don't win, it's easy to put on a 'Happy' face.

"When the going gets tough, the tough get going. And, when the damage gets severe, I persevere. I'm not sure what happened on lap 47. It looks like David Ragan ran out of talent, as they say."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt led a race-high 67 laps and won at Talladega for the first time since 2004.

"I took the win at Talladega," Earnhardt said, "and the crowd roared. When my fans get loud, they scream at the top of their lungs. And trust me, they mean it from the bottom of their hearts, and their livers."

4. Joey Logano — Logano suffered significant damage when he was collected in a lap 47 accident triggered when David Ragan's No. 6 car got loose. Logano eventually finished 33rd, two laps down, and now has two results of 33rd or worse in his last three races.

"I did win on Saturday in the Xfinity Series race," Logano said. "I had to make a last-lap block to preserve the win. That was an intense race. And let's face it, an intense race is what Talladega is all about, because the circuit's huge infield is utopia for the real 'in tents race,' which is white people camping out.

"All the talk at Talladega was about 'the draft. And speaking of 'The Draft,' if you put Jameis Winston in a car at Talladega, he'd no doubt 'steal' a win."

5. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex finished fifth in the Geico 500, posting his ninth top-10 result of the season. He is now second in the points standings, 40 behind Kevin Harvick.

"Talladega is NASCAR's longest super speedway," Truex said. "'Super Speed Way' also happens to be the street in Owensboro, Kentucky that the Mayfield's call home. On that street, there is no speed limit."

6. Kurt Busch — One week after winning at Richmond, Busch posted a respectable 12th at Talladega.

"GoDaddy is dropping their sponsorship of my teammate Danica Patrick's No. 10 car," Busch said. "I guess they didn't want to spend the money. How much money is that, anyway? I'm not sure, but it has to be a 'father figure.' Now, people can sarcastically ask Danica the same question they ask Joey Logano — where's your Daddy?'"

7. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished 22nd on a tough day for Penske Racing, as teammate Joey Logano finished 33rd. Keselowski is sixth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 89 out of first.

"This race had about as much excitement as the Floyd Mayweather/Manny Pacquiao fight," Keselowski said. "Mayweather and Pacquiao made a combined $200 million for the fight. And, much like in racing, there was a 'check-ered' flag waved at the end."

8. Kasey Kahne — Kahne started on the front row alongside pole sitter and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon at Talladega. Unfortunately, his day soured when his No. 5 Chevrolet was damaged in a lap 47 pileup that involved 16 cars. Kahne eventually finished 34th, 30 laps down.

"Gordon and I started 1-2," Kahne said. "Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Jimmie Johnson finished 1-2. All this talk about the ole 1-2, and oddly enough, none of it had to do with anyone punching Brad Keselowski.

"But congratulations to Junior. He did what he had to do to win. And Jimmie did what he had to do to for Junior to win. I hear J.J.'s headed to Key West, Florida to open his new bar. It's called 'Jimmie Buffer's.'"

9. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin led five laps and finished ninth at Talladega, posting his fourth top-10 of the year.

"I hear Jeff Gordon is driving the pace car at the Indianapolis 500 on May 24th," Hamlin said. "I'm not sure what the pit road speed limit for a pace car at Indy is, but I am sure Jeff will exceed it."

10. Jamie McMurray — McMurray just missed a top-10 finish in the Geico 500 with an 11th at Talladega. He is seventh in the Sprint Cup points standings.

"There was a lot of single file racing on Sunday," McMurray said. "Now at Talladega, when you ask about the 'lineup,' you have to specify whether you mean qualifying or the actual race. Talladega is the world's fastest game of Follow the Leader."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:00 PM | Comments (0)

May 5, 2015

Donovan to OKC: Secondary Needs

Former Florida Gators coach Billy Donovan left his position in Gainesville Thursday to become the new head coach of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Both Donovan and the Thunder are attractive commodities in basketball, so the pairing makes sense. But considering how frequently the involved parties have been second-best in recent seasons, the move seems squarely designed to nudge each party over the top.

Donovan

Donovan's name emerged seemingly every spring as a candidate for seemingly every prestigious job opening. While some of this was surely typical agent-driven leverage, Donovan seemed poised to leave when the right opportunity came along like many prominent coaches.

While Donovan's Gators certainly could return to the heights they reached in winning consecutive national championships in the mid-2000s, today's landscape looks much different less than a decade later. Florida clearly fell behind Kentucky within the SEC with little evidence that pecking order would change soon. The Gators recruited well enough, but outside of Bradley Beal, Donovan never quite succeeded at attracting the number of one-and-done players needed to compete at the top of the sport.

In this context, Donovan's decision to finally leap to the NBA makes sense, much more than his near jump to Orlando in 2007 ever did. Donovan has little, if anything, else to prove at the college level, and with plenty of time left in his career, he could easily return to a significant college post when this Thunder stint runs its course.

In Oklahoma City, Donovan has the tools to compete for the NBA title. He walks into a locker room and front office setup to succeed. It will be a new and unfamiliar challenge, but Donovan can realistically believe he will have a fair chance to conquer it with the current setup, certainly more so than he would while facing the Lexington Buzzsaw in the near future at Florida.

Kevin Durant and the Thunder

On the eve of the 2013 postseason, Durant summarized his plight eloquently, if glumly, to Sports Illustrated:

"I've been second my whole life. I was the second-best player in high school. I was the second pick in the draft. I've been second in the MVP voting three times. I came in second in the Finals. I'm tired of being second. I'm not going to settle for that. I'm done with it."

Two years and multitudes of disappointment later, Durant must be fatigued to exhaustion by being second (and worse). And with his potential free agency looming just a summer from now, the Thunder are clearly sympathetic.

Firing Scott Brooks was certainly predicted, but with only a year of commitment from Durant, the pressure to replace him with a championship-ready coach was immense. The recent boom of NBA superstar free agency has reinforced that the game's top players will not let the gleam of a bigger contract preclude them from pursuing a better basketball situation during their peak years (though that value system shifts after peak years; right, Kobe?).

The results of the 2015-16 season will determine the future viability of the Durant/OKC relationship. If the organization can show Durant a championship is within reach, staying with the Thunder may be his most attractive option. With the team's other main players contracted beyond this season, head coach was the biggest opportunity for improvement. For a superstar and organization mired in almost-success, Donovan looks like the best sherpa to ascend the NBA mountain.

Westbrook

Westbrook's NBA career has always felt like that of a superhero bound to maintain an alter ego while flashing powers greater than this world.

Durant's absence for significant stretches of this season freed Westbrook to parade around OKC in his cape and spandex. For stretches, Westbrook toed the line between top-gear superstar and maniacal ballhog. Like a fireballing pitcher with a propensity for losing fastball's over hitters' heads, it is Westbrook's out-of-control streaks that make him most threatening to opponents, teammates, and his own coaches. Properly harnessed, that wildness becomes unstoppable.

One of Donovan's main duties will be integrating the uncaged parts of Westbrook's game into a system that maximizes the talent of one of the league's elite scorers, but this was also true for Brooks. Donovan's value is the credible voice he brings to this challenge.

Not only having proven himself by winning at Florida but also having managed some significant star egos along the way, Donovan will walk into the OKC locker room in a better place than Brooks did.

Donovan has both the reputation and skill set to disarm any budding internal rivalry. For a team enviably talented in its top two players, this may be more important than any in-game decisions or strategic considerations.

If second place is the world's most miserable result because it reminds you how close you were to first, Donovan, Durant, Westbrook, and the Thunder make for pretty miserable company lately. Oklahoma City is betting their pooled misery is enough to finally breakthrough.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 12:10 PM | Comments (0)

May 4, 2015

2015 NFL Draft Winners and Losers

Over the next several paragraphs, I'll explain why I rated teams where I did. If you don't care about the methodology, by all means skip ahead.

I'm an NFL writer, and I don't follow college football closely enough to make insightful judgments about which players are and are not likely to succeed at the pro level. Instead, for each team, I'm looking at two fundamental goals: [1] Did the team get good value for its picks, and [2] Did those picks fill needs?

I'm looking for teams that addressed their needs without reaching for lesser talent, made profitable trades, and selected highly-rated players long after we thought they'd be off the board. Conversely, even if you got good players, taking someone who probably would have been available a round later — I don't see that as a good pick. Most drafts are close to average, so not every team is listed.

There's one exception to my rule about not analyzing individual players: I don't think this was the right year to draft a quarterback early. Jameis Winston is not Johnny Manziel or JaMarcus Russell, but no matter how much ability he has, I'd be awfully worried about drafting him. Even good-character guys like Robert Griffin can turn into headaches when the hype and the money get to them. Choosing Winston first overall was a massive risk, and not one that I think was a good idea.

I don't believe Marcus Mariota will ever be an elite NFL quarterback. There are smart people who know a lot more about evaluating draft prospects than I do, who love Mariota. But even in the 59-20 Rose Bowl/playoff win over FSU, I didn't see an Andrew Luck or a Russell Wilson. I saw a Ryan Tannehill. This isn't about Oregon's spread offense; I just don't see Mariota's skill set translating into a top-level NFL QB.

2015 Draft Winners

* New York Jets — First-round pick Leonard Williams was widely regarded as the best prospect at any position. Second-round WR Devin Smith addresses a need, and they got Baylor QB Bryce Petty in the fourth round. Jarvis Harrison looks like a value pick in the fifth round. But what really sold me on the Jets' draft was a pair of choices they didn't make. New York traded away their fifth- and seventh-round picks in exchange for Brandon Marshall and Zac Stacy. Marshall is one of the best wide receivers in the game, and Stacy is a young player (24) who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie. This year's draft picks might not make an immediate impact in 2015, but the veterans should.

* Detroit Lions — The Lions landed on the winners list before they sent a card to the podium. They traded a pair of mid-round picks for Pro Bowl DT Haloti Ngata, and a trade down in the first round brought offensive lineman Manny Ramirez from Denver. Both should start in Week 1. Detroit drafted a huge guard, Laken Tomlinson, in the first round. Ramirez and Tomlinson allow the Lions to not only replace retired center Dominic Raiola, but to upgrade their interior line. Their second round selection, Nebraska RB Ameer Abdullah, is a great athlete, and I like the pick a lot. I'm not worried about his size. The Lions needed another DT, and when Auburn's Gabe Wright slipped into the fourth round, Detroit traded up to get him. If I'm a Lions fan, I'm happy today.

* Florida State Seminoles — Five players selected in the first three rounds, most of any university. That includes the first overall pick, QB Jameis Winston. Over the past three years, 29 FSU players have been drafted, breaking the modern record set by Miami from 2002-04.

* Jacksonville Jaguars — Showed faith in last year's draft. They focused on the pass game in 2014, and they're letting that play out. Third overall selection Dante Fowler could finally be the answer to their pass-rushing woes. They went RB and OL in the second and third rounds, to stabilize their lost ground attack, and they got a highly-rated DT, Ohio State's Michael Bennett, in the sixth round. They won't be contenders until they find a quarterback, but this draft should make the team better.

* Pittsburgh Steelers — Lost out on TE Maxx Williams in the second round, but they got NFL Combine sensation Bud Dupree, a freak athlete with a very high ceiling, and two cornerbacks to supplement their age-depleted secondary. The Steelers expect Dupree to be the latest in a long line of elite pass rushers. Third-round WR Sammie Coates is another great athlete, but one who needs some polish on his football skills. The second and fourth rounds both yielded CBs, a need position for Pittsburgh. Gerod Holliman was last year's Thorpe Award winner and an All-American, and they got him in the seventh round.

* Baltimore Ravens — Drafted Breshad Perriman to replace free agent departure Torrey Smith, and snagged Iowa DT Carl Davis in the third round to help fill the void left by Haloti Ngata. They traded up in the second round to draft TE Maxx Williams ahead of division rival Pittsburgh.

* Wide receivers — Thursday night's first round saw six wideouts drafted, and eight of the first 40 picks were WRs. Altogether, 13 went in the first three rounds. Last year's class of rookie receivers was among the best in history, and evidently a number of GMs see this year's rookies the same way.

* Chicago Bears — New coach John Fox has the luxury of a multi-year rebuilding project. The defense, which ranked 30th in yardage and 31st in points, is still a mess. But with three of their first four picks spent on offense, the Bears chose a receiver to fill the gap left by trading Brandon Marshall, an offensive lineman, and a third-down back to spell Matt Forte. Working within the confines of the Jay Cutler contract disaster, the Bears have addressed their most obvious needs on offense. Going forward, they can focus on rebuilding the defense.

* New Orleans Saints — I would have liked to see them land a game-breaking receiver to replace Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, but they still put together a nice draft, with five picks in the first three rounds. The Saints went offensive line with their first choice (Stanford's Andrus Peat), and inside linebacker (Stephone Anthony) with the extra pick they got from trading Graham. New Orleans got a pass rusher in the second round, then QB Garrett Grayson, whom the team really wanted as a successor for Drew Brees. Four of their last five picks went to defense, and you expect at least one of those to produce a pretty good starter.

* Cleveland Browns — They've been building toward this for three years, trading away picks and players. The Browns finally cashed in, with two first-round draft picks, five in the first three rounds, 11 altogether.

The Browns allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL last year (142/gm, 4.5/att), and they addressed that in the first round, with 330-lb. nose tackle Danny Shelton. He ran a slow 40 at the NFL Combine, but Shelton had a great bench press, and he was a multi-sport athlete at the University of Washington. I would have liked to see Cleveland do more to restock its secondary — Buster Skrine went to the Jets, Jim Leonhard retired, and Tashaun Gipson is a restricted free agent — but sixth-round selection Charles Gaines has upside, and with three early picks spent on defensive linemen, the Browns obviously have a plan. I'm interested to see what they do with former Miami Hurricanes RB Duke Johnson.

Question Marks

* Miami Dolphins — I think they basically targeted the right positions, and Jay Ajayi could be a great value in the fifth round, but I do not understand the Kenny Stills trade. In March, the Dolphins traded linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and a third-round draft pick to the Saints, in exchange for Stills. That trade seems like a rip-off to me, with Miami on the short end. But that was before the Dolphins signed Greg Jennings and used their top draft pick on DeVante Parker. This team has a lot of wide receivers now, but it might be missing Ellerbe and that extra draft pick.

* Dallas Cowboys — I'm rooting for Randy Gregory. But the news that he missed several appointments with teams doesn't breed confidence that he'll be a player the Cowboys can rely on. If Gregory lives up to his potential, he was a steal in the late second round. If he washes out, that's a waste of an early draft pick. The Cowboys selected Florida OT Chaz Green in the third round, and it's a curious pick on a team widely considered to have the best offensive line in the league. You can never have too much depth on the line, and obviously the Cowboys felt they were getting a good, undervalued player. But it was a surprising position for the team to target on the second day.

* Carolina Panthers — Shaq Thompson was a surprise in the first round, a guy analysts expected to go later. The Panthers traded up to get Devin Funchess, essentially spending both their second- and third-round picks to acquire him. I think Funchess is a great fit for Carolina, but they paid a high price to obtain him. The team also moved up to select Oklahoma offensive lineman Daryl Williams in the fourth round.

The Panthers have done this repeatedly in recent years, trading lavishly to target the players they want. It's mostly worked out, with the team winning back-to-back NFC South titles, but it requires a lot of faith in your scouting, and prospects generally don't justify that degree of confidence. I would have liked to see them go after a pass rusher or defensive back at some point.

* Denver Broncos — I really wish they had done more to address their interior offensive line. Orlando Franklin and Will Montgomery left in free agency, and they traded Manny Ramirez. Is fourth-round draft pick Max Garcia their starting center in Week 1? Maybe Ty Sambrailo, whom they drafted second, will play guard?

In the first round, Denver traded up to get Missouri pass rusher Shane Ray. He's a terrific talent, but it's not obvious how he fits in 2015, on a team with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. He was also arrested a week ago, and that's a huge red flag in today's NFL. That's why Ray was available 23rd, so he could be a bargain, or a washout.

2015 Draft Losers

* Blockbuster trades — There were no trades into the top 10, no one trading away their first-rounder next year, or mortgaging the whole draft. That's probably wise, but it's not as much fun.

* Washington — I don't understand their draft. They bypassed Leonard Williams with the 5th pick, then chose a pass rusher and a running back. I'm not sure where Preston Smith fits on a team with Pro Bowler Ryan Kerrigan and 2013 NCAA sack leader Trent Murphy. Matt Jones seems redundant on a team with Alfred Morris. They didn't address a leaky defensive backfield until the sixth round.

* San Francisco 49ers — I guess they got some good players, but they just ignored their needs. Patrick Willis and Chris Borland retired, but the Niners didn't draft an inside linebacker. They waited until the sixth round to draft an offensive lineman. They didn't take a cornerback. At some point, you want to address the holes on your roster, and I can't see that the 49ers did that.

* La'el Collins — Lots of questionable-character, off-field issues players saw their draft stock suffer, but most of them still got drafted. Collins, viewed as a first-round, possible top-10 talent, didn't get picked at all. He can't re-enter the draft in 2016 (as initially reported), but expect multiple teams to go after him if his legal issues blow over.

* Ohio State Buckeyes — The NCAA national champions had no players selected in the first round. Wide receiver Devin Smith, 37th overall, was the first Buckeye off the board.

* Tennessee Titans — I don't think Marcus Mariota will ever be an elite NFL quarterback, but even beyond that, the Titans almost certainly turned down generous trade offers to move up to the second spot. Look at what the Rams have done with the RG3 heist, and it's beyond foolish to turn down that kind of opportunity. I also think the Titans have misdiagnosed their problem. Their leading receivers last year were Delanie Walker, Kendall Wright, and Nate Washington. I'd rather see what Zach Mettenberger can do with Kevin White or Amari Cooper than watch Mariota throwing to Walker, Wright, Washington, and Hakeem Nicks.

Tennessee did draft Dorial Green-Beckham in the second round, but that's a high-risk selection. Green-Beckham has great physical potential, but it's doesn't always translate to the field, and he has serious off-field concerns. The Titans have so many needs they failed to address in this draft.

* Big 12 — Only had three players drafted in the first two rounds. The Washington Huskies had more first-round draft picks than the entire Big 12 conference, combined. Washington, Florida State, and Mizzou each had more players chosen in the first two rounds than the Big 12.

* Notre Dame Fighting Irish — Only one player drafted this year: tight end Ben Koyack ... in the seventh round ... 229th overall ... to the Jaguars.

* Tennessee Volunteers — At least Ohio State and Notre Dame had players drafted. For the first time in more than 50 years, no one from Tennessee was selected in the NFL Draft.

* Buffalo Bills — Gave away their first- and fourth-round picks in last year's trade to move up for Sammy Watkins. Ronald Darby looks like a nice value 50th overall, but Buffalo had the 3rd-ranked pass defense in the NFL last year, and I would have preferred to see them target a different position. Their offense need more weapons in the passing game, and I thought they would draft a linebacker to replace Kiko Alonso. Watkins played well last season before his injury, but the Bills are still paying for him.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:16 PM | Comments (1)

May 1, 2015

The Sounds of Silence in Camden Yards

Some have asked in the past, "Supposed they played a baseball game and nobody came?" They got their sad enough answer in one of baseball's most beautiful ballparks Wednesday afternoon. Edgy because of Baltimore's riots this week, and after having postponed twice, the Orioles elected to play the White Sox without an audience, with baseball government's sad approval and Baltimore's sad acquiescence.

The deafening silence didn't seem to affect the Orioles early in the game. After starter Ubaldo Jimenez put the White Sox away in order to open, Chris Davis hit a fat Jeff Samardzija pitch for a 3-run homer in the bottom that was merely the exclamation point on a 6-run Oriole first. By the end of the fourth they were up 7-0.

The only noise you could hear when Davis drilled his homer onto Eutaw Street, which separates the ballpark from the warehousing, was a small crowd of fans on the motorless street, and a little murmuring from the press box, the only full section inside the park. Some ballplayers have been known to wonder aloud how pleasant it might be to play the game without a throng of people in the stands hooting and hollering. The Orioles and the White Sox gave one sad answer.

Outrage over young Freddie Gray's death while in police custody, en route a holding cell, apparently, is very much warranted. Baltimore's police should be made to answer for Gray's death, and fast. Even asking, as National Review‘s Kevin D. Williamson writes, whether any adult with a brain would "be shocked to learn that Baltimore has a corrupt and feckless police department enabled by a corrupt and feckless city government? I myself would not, and the local authorities' dishonesty and stonewalling in the death of Freddie Gray is reminiscent of what we have seen in other cities. There's a heap of evidence that the Baltimore police department is pretty bad."

To be outraged over a few thousand thugs seizing the outrage as a reason to break an entire city, none of whose targets seemed to include places where you might find those who permitted the corruption that seeds such a needless death as Gray's, is also very much warranted. "[T]he rioters in Baltimore," Williamson notes, "mostly are not burning down tax offices or police stations but are in the main looting businesses and carrying out acts of wanton opportunistic vandalism — that's not a revolt, but a crime spree. Meretricious 'black rage' rhetoric notwithstanding, what we have seen in places such as Ferguson and Baltimore is much more ordinarily criminal than political."

It is also very much legitimate to be encouraged by such doings as that of the African American mother who recognized her 16-year-old son among the rioters at Mondawmin Mall, when watching news updates, then high-tailed it to where she knew him to be, and delivered a roundhouse to him, just the beginning of a series of whacks to his head, in full view of cameras.

The video went viral and so did Toya Graham's no-nonsense explanation: "I'm a no-tolerant mother. Everybody who knows me, knows I don't play that," she told CBS News in due course. "He knew. He knew he was in trouble. That's my only son and at the end of the day I don't want him to be a Freddie Gray. I was angry. I was shocked, because you never want to see your child out there doing that." She also told CBS that what she saw at the mall told her these were not mere protesters out for justice.

Somewhere in the middle of the deafening Camden Yards silence Wednesday, the White Sox managed to sneak a pair of runs home on a pair of grounders, one of which provoked a throwing error, before Manny Machado delivered an eighth Oriole run with a bomb over the left center field fence in the bottom of the fifth. Jeff Samardzija took one for the White Sox, pitching six, before handing off to Scott Carroll, who surrendered only one hit in two innings work.

Somewhere in the middle of it, too, there were a few laughs to be had — Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph was said to have been spotted signing autographs for imaginary fans. My personal favorite, though, has to be Davis, out of force of habit, perhaps, tossing a ball into the stands as he trotted off the field after a third defensive out. Oops. The clunk when the ball landed must have echoed around the otherwise empty park. For the record, it landed about fifteen rows behind the Oriole dugout.

Prior to the game, Davis was a lot more sober about the atmosphere, in the park and the city. "I watched the news more in the last couple of days than I have in my whole entire life," he told USA Today‘s Paul White. "Just to see the anger, the emotion, the frustration of the city the last few days was shocking. It's frustrating. I understand why people are upset and rightfully so. It's unfortunate that it's escalated to what it has. I think a lot of people were trying to do things the right way. I think there's still a long way to go but I think we're headed in the right direction."

"It was just a surreal environment," said White Sox manager Robin Ventura to reporters after the game ended. "I really don't think we want to play in another one like this. I don't think they do either."

There were those who also said the way the White Sox played they didn't exactly deserve an audience, either. Oh, that's a regular riot, Alice.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 12:23 PM | Comments (0)