The 2015 NFL Draft will begin at the end of this week, and many journalists (including this one) will pass judgment afterwards, issuing grades and critiquing picks and trades — all of it based on educated guesses, sometimes not even all that educated.
Before I try to evaluate the new draft, I'm tackling a project I can handle with more confidence: grading the 2005 NFL Draft. It's a less famous class than 2004, which we profiled last year, but it does include big names like Aaron Rodgers, Frank Gore, and DeMarcus Ware, as well as former stars like Cadillac Williams and Shawne Merriman. Many of the best players are still active, but we've got a good sense at this point for which teams did well in '05, and which ones did not.
A
Dallas Cowboys
A great defensive draft. Their first-round pick produced the greatest pass rusher of this era, DeMarcus Ware, a future Hall of Famer who spent nine years in Dallas before making a successful transition to the Broncos. The Cowboys also got the steal of the '05 draft, selecting four-time Pro Bowler Jeremiah Ratliff in the 7th round, with the 224th overall pick. That's a pair of stars who formed the base of the defense for most of the past decade, but the Cowboys also drafted valuable role players like RB Marion Barber and defensive linemen Chris Canty and Marcus Spears.
A-
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers and Nick Collins. The Packers had 11 picks in the '05 Draft, and most of them never amounted to anything. But their first two choices yielded Rodgers, a two-time MVP and the best quarterback in the league today, as well as three-time Pro Bowl safety Collins. The only other selection of any consequence was fourth-rounder Brady Poppinga, a linebacker who contributed largely on special teams, but Rodgers alone would make this a highly successful draft.
New England Patriots
Logan Mankins, their first-round pick, is a six-time Pro Bowler. Third-rounders Ellis Hobbs and Nick Kaczur were important role players and occasional starters, as was fourth-round choice James Sanders. In the seventh round, New England selected a backup quarterback, Matt Cassel, who led the team to an 11-5 record while Tom Brady was injured in 2008, made a Pro Bowl with the Chiefs, and is expected to compete for a starting job in Buffalo in 2015.
B+
Atlanta Falcons
Made good choices early, selecting Roddy White in the first round and Jonathan Babineaux in the second. White is one of the finest receivers of his generation, with four Pro Bowls and over 10,000 receiving yards. Babineaux has never made a Pro Bowl, but he is the most underrated defensive tackle of the past decade, a playmaker who demands double-teams and creates problems for opponents. Michael Boley and Chauncey Davis were also part of this draft class.
B
Philadelphia Eagles
Twelve draft picks, the most of any team. Two of those twelve, pass rusher Trent Cole and offensive lineman Todd Herremans, started for the Eagles in 2014. First-round pick Mike Patterson was a good defensive tackle, second-rounder Reggie Brown gained 2,500 receiving yards in five seasons, and defensive back Sean Considine had his moments.
San Francisco 49ers
First overall pick Alex Smith was up and down, but a disappointment given his draft position. The Niners redeemed their draft in the third round, selecting Frank Gore and Adam Snyder. Gore has been the team's best player, the one weapon on an offense that stuttered for most of the last decade. Snyder has started 88 games on the offensive line, 73 of them with San Francisco. The 49ers drafted 11 players in '05. All 11 played in the NFL, five of them more than 100 games.
San Diego Chargers
Through 2014, their draft has produced seven Pro Bowl seasons. That's tied for second-most of any team, far behind Dallas (13), but equal to Green Bay and New England. Shawne Merriman was Defensive Rookie of the Year in '05, all-pro and a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in '06, and a Pro Bowler in '07. Merriman came back from an injury too early and wrecked his career, but he was an even more sensational young player than DeMarcus Ware.
The Chargers' next three picks yielded Luis Castillo (a six-year starter on the defensive line), Vincent Jackson (a three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver), and Darren Sproles (a dynamic dual-threat RB and a Pro Bowl returner). Jackson and Sproles have had some of their best seasons with other teams, or the Chargers would rate even higher.
Tennessee Titans
The opposite of San Diego: they rate here because two of their three successful draft picks, offensive linemen Michael Roos and David Stewart, spent their whole careers in Nashville. Roos, a second-round choice out of Eastern Washington, was one of the steadiest OTs of his generation, while Stewart was an eight-year starter who played 116 games for the Titans. The team's first-round draft pick, Pac-Man Jones, was a decent cornerback and explosive returner, who overcame persistent off-field issues to re-emerge as Adam Jones, a decent cornerback and explosive returner for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Tight end Bo Scaife and DB Reynaldo Hill were good values late in the draft.
B-
Kansas City Chiefs
Their draft only produced two players of consequence. Linebacker Derrick Johnson is a three-time Pro Bowler, still with Kansas City a decade later. Third-round selection Dustin Colquitt is arguably the greatest punter of this generation, a year-in, year-out performer. Their next-best draft pick, I guess, might have been sixth-round choice Will Svitek, who has played for four teams — mostly as a backup — and was still active in 2014.
New York Giants
Four picks, fewest of any team. But three of the four played over 100 games in the NFL. Justin Tuck was a two-time Pro Bowler, and a critical player on the team that won Super Bowl XLII. Defensive back Corey Webster was a six-year starter, and running back Brandon Jacobs rushed for 1,000 yards in the '07 and '08 seasons.
Seattle Seahawks
Surprised everyone by drafting Mississippi's Chris Spencer in the first round, but he had some good seasons — I voted for him to make the Pro Bowl in 2007 — and he started five games for Tennessee last season. Lofa Tatupu made three Pro Bowls, and fellow LB LeRoy Hill showed flashes. Tatupu and Hill were starters on Seattle's 2005 Super Bowl team.
C+
St. Louis Rams
Seven of their draft picks played over 60 games in the NFL, but none became stars, and several were released by the Rams but caught on with other teams. Both their seventh-round picks became adequate players, which is phenomenal, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and fullback Madison Hedgecock are better known for their work outside of St. Louis. Third-round choice O.J. Atogwe was probably the best player from the Rams' draft class, but the first two picks, OT Alex Barron and DB Ron Bartell, made some contributions. The only Pro Bowler from their draft was offensive guard Richie Incognito, though he's bounced around the league due to being a jackass.
Fitzpatrick, who started three games for the Rams, and threw twice as many INTs as TDs, is their only '05 draft choice who played in 2014.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Used their first pick on Heath Miller, a solidly above-average tight end. He's a good blocker, a good receiver, a good fit for the system, a good fit for the city of Pittsburgh (Heeeeeath), and a starter on two Super Bowl teams. The Steelers also drafted Bryant McFadden, Trai Essex, and Chris Kemoeatu in 2005. None of those guys are stars, but they all played a role on some awfully successful teams.
Carolina Panthers
Sometimes a team doesn't realize what it has. The Panthers drafted Evan Mathis, Jovan Haye, and Joe Berger this year. Mathis played seven seasons for the Panthers, Dolphins, and Bengals before emerging as a two-time Pro Bowl guard with the Eagles. Haye was cut after appearing in two games, but helped the Buccaneers make the playoffs in '07 and became a three-year starter. Berger never appeared in a regular-season game for Carolina, but he's spent 10 seasons in the NFL, mostly as a backup and special teamer, and was still active in 2014.
The Panthers' first-round pick, Thomas Davis, has struggled with injuries but played well when healthy. Fifth-round pick Geoff Hangartner appeared in over 100 games, mostly as a starter.
Miami Dolphins
First-round selection Ronnie Brown, taken second overall, never became a star, with a career-high of 1,008 rushing yards. But he played for a decade, rushed for over 5,000 yards, and made some positive contributions for the Dolphins. Among other things, Brown was the spark for Miami's innovative Wildcat offense. Linebacker Channing Crowder was a starter for a few seasons, while Matt Roth and Travis Daniels combined to play over 200 games. Seventh-round pick Kevin Vickerson never played for Miami, but he started for the Broncos team that played in Super Bowl XLVIII.
C
New York Jets
They had no first-round selection, but two second-round picks, used on Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent and Clemson DB Justin Miller. Nugent is still active, and Miller was a Pro Bowl returner, but the Jets were more successful with their third- and fourth-round choices, DT Sione Pouha and defensive back Kerry Rhodes. Tight end Joel Dreesen played nine seasons, which is good for a sixth-rounder.
Washington
I didn't lower their rank for stupidity, but I probably should have. When teams target a specific player in the first round of the draft, but outside the top two or three picks, they normally make the trade immediately before that selection, so as not to tip their hand. Washington, targeting Auburn QB Jason Campbell, traded first-, third-, and fourth-round choices to Denver in exchange for the 25th pick ... but they made the trade prior to the beginning of the draft. Aaron Rodgers unexpectedly dropped out of the top 10, and Green Bay drafted him 24th, one spot before Washington. With even a touch of foresight, Washington could have drafted Rodgers instead of Campbell.
Campbell was okay. He was a below-average starter, but he wasn't terrible, and he's still active as a solid backup. Fellow first-rounder Carlos Rogers was an adequate cornerback, but had his best season in San Francisco. No one else from this draft made any impact in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Used their first two picks on Offensive Rookie of the Year Cadillac Williams and a good middle linebacker, Barrett Ruud. Williams struggled with injuries and Ruud only had a few good seasons. Their only other draft pick of any note was the "other" Alex Smith, a tight end from Stanford.
C-
Chicago Bears
Fifth overall pick Cedric Benson was a massive disappointment in Chicago, though he had three 1,000-yard seasons for the Bengals. Kyle Orton was a reasonably steady backup, but he's had his best years elsewhere, too. The only other draft choice to start with any frequency was defensive back Chris Harris, a sixth-round choice out of Louisiana-Monroe, who is best known for his time with the Carolina Panthers.
The Bears selected some good players, but none of them were especially successful as Bears.
Oakland Raiders
Four picks in the first three rounds, of whom the only real washout was quarterback Andrew Walter. Fabian Washington and Stanford Routt played a combined 200 games, and linebacker Kirk Morrison was a six-year starter with the Raiders and (in 2010) Jaguars. Morrison led the team in tackles five times, and in '07, he intercepted four passes.
Cleveland Browns
Braylon Edwards had one brilliant season (1,289 yards, 16 TD), but if the Browns could do it again, they would draft Roddy White instead. Brodney Pool played 100 games in the NFL, and Charlie Frye was a serviceable backup QB for a few years.
New Orleans Saints
First-round choice Jammal Brown made two Pro Bowls, but a torn ACL prevented him from playing during the 2009 Super Bowl season. Afterward, Brown played two unimpressive seasons in Washington, then retired. Defensive back Josh Bullocks is the only other Saint from this draft to make any impact in the NFL.
D+
Denver Broncos
Best pick was sixth-round offensive lineman Chris Myers, who has started 128 games in a row ... 112 of them for the Houston Texans. Denver's next-best draft pick might have been Domonique Foxworth, who was mostly a nickel back.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Shocked analysts by using their first pick on Arkansas QB Matt Jones, whom they attempted to convert to wide receiver. The experiment was a failure, and Jones retired after four years. Second-round choice Khalif Barnes was more successful, and defensive back Gerald Sensabaugh was a pleasant surprise in the fifth round, though his best seasons came mostly in Dallas.
Indianapolis Colts
Drafted three defensive backs who played on their Super Bowl XLI-winning team: Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, and Matt Giordano. Dylan Gandy and Tyjuan Hagler were sort of okay for a little while.
Arizona Cardinals
Antrel Rolle fell to them with the 8th overall selection, and he's had a nice career with both the Cardinals and Giants. The rest of their draft produced some guys who stuck around for a while — J.J. Arrington, Eric Green, Darryl Blackstock — but no one who made any real impact.
Baltimore Ravens
There were times when it looked like Mark Clayton would deliver on the promise that made him a first-round draft pick. But Clayton was never a consistent playmaker, never had a 1,000-yard season, and the Ravens gave up on him after five years. Second-rounder Dan Cody may have been the most disappointing pick of the entire draft. He played in two games and retired with no solo tackles and one assist.
But in later rounds, Baltimore acquired center Jason Brown and quarterback Derek Anderson. Brown was a Pro Bowl-caliber player for a couple years, a starter in both Baltimore and St. Louis. Anderson never played for the Ravens, but he had one brilliant season as QB of the Browns, and has bounced around the league as backup and spot starter since.
D
Cincinnati Bengals
Odell Thurman had a brilliant rookie season (98 tackles, 5 INT), but you may remember that many Bengals had legal problems around this time, and Thurman was their king. Despite his excellent rookie year, Thurman never played in the NFL again, due to substance abuse and legal issues. First-round pick David Pollack retired after little more than one season, due to injury concerns. Third-rounder Chris Henry showed flashes of ability, but he was out of the league even before his untimely death.
The Bengals drafted some talented players in '05, but none of them could stay on the field. Seventh-rounder Jonathan Fanene played the most games (71) of anyone from Cincinnati's draft.
D-
Detroit Lions
Mike Williams, a year removed from his playing career at USC, was their first pick. I loved it at the time, teaming Williams with Charles Rogers and Roy Williams to give the Lions three receivers who all demanded high-level coverage. It didn't work out, but Mike Williams did have one season when he looked like he might be good. DT Shaun Cody was one of the best defensive players on the team for a few years, but that's when Detroit had the worst defense in the NFL.
Houston Texans
Jerome Mathis made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, with 1,500 kickoff return yards, a 28.6 average, and 2 TDs. He had one more return TD in '07, then he was out of the league. Mathis was the most successful player Houston drafted in '05. Travis Johnson and C.C. Brown started for a few seasons, but probably would have been backups on a better team.
Buffalo Bills
First-round choice Roscoe Parrish was a good punt returner. Second-round selection Kevin Everett suffered a scary, career-ending injury in 2007. No one from their draft class was ever a regular starter.
F
Minnesota Vikings
An exciting first round quickly turned bitter, as Troy Williamson (7th overall) and Erasmus James (18th) failed to meet expectations. Williamson stuck in the league for five seasons, as a returner and backup receiver, but James played only 12 games for the Vikings and ended his career with just 5 sacks. Defensive tackle C.J. Mosley, their seventh-rounder out of Miizzou, played only one season with the Vikings (he had a career-high three sacks), but has bounced around the league for a decade, appearing in 129 games with five teams, mostly as a backup and special teamer.
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