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April 30, 2015

When Success Isn't Enough

It has been a week since the Thunder fired head coach Scott Brooks. For some, it might have been a year too late. For others, this was a long time overdue. To me, I see it as more of an unfortunate timing situation.

Let's start with the information that we know. In his seven seasons leading the team, Brooks posted a 338-207 record, including five qualifications for the postseason, three appearances in the Conference Finals, and a trip to the 2012 NBA Finals. This season, injuries devastated the squad on the court.

A 3-12 start (with superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the bench) proved too much to overcome by mid-April. Durant played in about one-third of this season's games (27 of 82). Westbrook missed 15, with most of those happening during that disastrous beginning of the campaign. And don't forget that defensive leader Serge Ibaka was out for the last 18 contests of the regular season.

There were also the trade deadline moves. Sure, the roster improved, but there's going to be an adjustment period when Kendrick Perkins and Reggie Jackson were swapped for Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters, respectively. Once everything came to pass, OKC was one game short of a sixth consecutive playoff berth, and Scott Brooks was out the door.

Whenever there's a coaching change with players of this caliber, the hope is that the right leader can put the team in a position to win it all. This strategy does have a supply of examples where it came to fruition.

The Lakers already had a legacy when they won the 1979-1980 championship. It was a time of transition, with rookie Magic Johnson and veteran Kareem Abdul-Jabbar leading what would become a decade of success. But would that success have happened if nothing changed in late 1981? For most of the '80s, Pat Riley was the man guiding the squad. However, he wasn't at the helm in 1980. That distinction went to Paul Westhead (who filled in when Jack McKinney suffered a severe injury early in the season). After winning the title at the start of the decade, and losing in the first round in 1981, Westhead was let go of his duties early into the 1981-1982 season. Riley stepped up from the assistant's seat in that case and stayed on to grab four titles of his own (along with three other Finals appearances).

Riley was part of another "succession" when it comes to his current position. In the Summer of 2005, Stan Van Gundy coached the Miami Heat to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, high expectations and a stumbling 11-10 start the following season led to Van Gundy resigning the position in December of 2005. Riley got out of the President's suite to reassume the job title he had given up just a couple of seasons earlier. The end result ... the organization's first championship (and Riley's fifth as a coach).

Jumping ahead once again, we could be in the midst of another success story. One year ago, Golden State Warriors was in the midst of a heated series with the Clippers. After making the playoffs once in an 18-season stretch, fortunes were starting to turn. 2014 was the second consecutive year that the Warriors earned the West's sixth seed. But even with the improving roster, there were rumblings that the relationship between head coach Mark Jackson and the front office was very strained.

Just days after the Warriors were bounced from the postseason, Jackson was bounced from his seat on the bench. The move left many scratching their heads and wondering if this would disrupt the chemistry of the team. After a 67-15 regular season, a division title, and earning the conference's top seed, it appears that bringing in Steve Kerr was the right choice. Whether that results in a title .... that question might be answered in the next few weeks.

Now, the Thunder will look to make the same kind of splash that turns consistent success into title-grabbing elitism. Personally, I thought that Brooks should have been given one more "injury-plague free" season to prove the detractors right. A four-headed attack of Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Kanter should be a potent group, even in the stacked Western Conference. But, if the Thunder play this correctly, we could see them holding the Larry O'Brien Trophy about a year from now.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 2:25 PM | Comments (0)

April 29, 2015

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 9

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished second to Stewart-Haas teammate Kurt Busch at Richmond, as Harvick scored the runner-up spot for the fifth time this season.

"Kurt deserved the win," Harvick said. "He was by far the best car in the field, and everyone knew it. Kurt proved that his girlfriend isn't the only thing he can 'throttle.'

"I was honored at the White House on Tuesday. Basically, President Obama and I discussed aerodynamics. We both think spoilers are important; I just prefer the 'right wing' to the 'left wing.'"

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson started 36th and worked his way inside the top 10 quickly on his way to a third in the Toyota Owners 400. It was Johnson's fifth top-five result of the year, and he is fourth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 58 behind Kevin Harvick.

"I hear Harvick visited the White House," Johnson said. "I've been there and done that, several times. Trust me, I know what it's like to be surrounded by security. Usually, it's when Chad Knaus is running 'secret service' on the No. 48 in the garage."

3. Joey Logano — Logano dominated early at Richmond, starting from the pole and leading the first 94 laps on his way to a fifth-place finish.

"They call me 'Sliced Bread,'" Logano said. "Just a few short weeks ago, they called Kurt Busch 'Toast.'"

4. Kurt Busch — Busch was the class of the field for much of Sunday's race at Richmond, leading 291 laps on his way to the win, his first in 35 races. The victory likely qualifies Busch for the Chase For The Cup field.

"The No. 41 Stewart-Haas Chevy handled great," Busch said. "Finally, we can talk about my car's suspension, and not mine."

5. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished a disappointing 17th at Richmond after dropping a cylinder on lap 254.

"When you mention 'No. 2' and 'dropped a cylinder' in the same sentence," Keselowski said, "you can assume your day has 'gone to pot.'

"Kurt Busch just made the Chase field. Now, let's see if Kyle Busch can. Brian France said he may grant Kyle a waiver when he returns to racing, meaning Kyle could make the Chase with a win despite not being in the top 30 in points. Let's not automatically assume Kyle will win and make the field. If we assume, Kyle could make an ass out of you and me."

6. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex posted his eighth top-10 finish of the year with a tenth in the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond.

"Chevrolets took the top four spots at Richmond," Truex said, "while the best Toyota finish was Matt Kenseth in seventh. I think we know who the Toyota 'owners' really are — it's the Chevy's.

"Did you see that pit road fire in the Xfinity Series?, Luckily, NASCAR safety officials put that fire out using their 'Xtinguish Series.'"

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 14th at Richmond, the only Hendrick Motorsports driver outside the top 10. He is eighth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 86 out of first.

"I had a dust up with Tony Stewart with 40 laps to go," Earnhardt said. "I blame Tony, and Tony blames me. Tony couldn't get his car restarted after the wreck, and he was not happy. Apparently, the old adage 'Where there's Smoke, there's 'fire'' is not true."

8. Matt Kenseth — One week after winning at Bristol, Kenseth finished seventh in the Toyota Owners 400, his fifth top 10 of the year.

"Kurt Busch drove an impressive race," Kenseth said. "Even with Kevin Harvick stalking him, he didn't fold. I guess Kurt is right — he didn't choke."

9. Kasey Kahne — Kahne joined Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jimmie Johnson (third) and Jeff Gordon (eight) in the top 10 with a sixth at Richmond.

"It was overall a solid day for HMS," Kahne said. "If not for Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. would have joined us in the top 10. But I think Junior's willing to let it slide. The last thing Tony needs is a guilt trip."

10. Jamie McMurray — McMurray led four laps and finished fourth at Richmond, scoring his second top-five of the year. He is ninth in the points standings, 93 out of first.

"Kurt Busch was just too fast for anyone to catch," McMurray said. "Much like his former girlfriend, you could say Kurt was 'on a mission.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:24 PM | Comments (0)

April 28, 2015

A Decade Later: Grading the 2005 Draft

The 2015 NFL Draft will begin at the end of this week, and many journalists (including this one) will pass judgment afterwards, issuing grades and critiquing picks and trades — all of it based on educated guesses, sometimes not even all that educated.

Before I try to evaluate the new draft, I'm tackling a project I can handle with more confidence: grading the 2005 NFL Draft. It's a less famous class than 2004, which we profiled last year, but it does include big names like Aaron Rodgers, Frank Gore, and DeMarcus Ware, as well as former stars like Cadillac Williams and Shawne Merriman. Many of the best players are still active, but we've got a good sense at this point for which teams did well in '05, and which ones did not.

A

Dallas Cowboys

A great defensive draft. Their first-round pick produced the greatest pass rusher of this era, DeMarcus Ware, a future Hall of Famer who spent nine years in Dallas before making a successful transition to the Broncos. The Cowboys also got the steal of the '05 draft, selecting four-time Pro Bowler Jeremiah Ratliff in the 7th round, with the 224th overall pick. That's a pair of stars who formed the base of the defense for most of the past decade, but the Cowboys also drafted valuable role players like RB Marion Barber and defensive linemen Chris Canty and Marcus Spears.

A-

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers and Nick Collins. The Packers had 11 picks in the '05 Draft, and most of them never amounted to anything. But their first two choices yielded Rodgers, a two-time MVP and the best quarterback in the league today, as well as three-time Pro Bowl safety Collins. The only other selection of any consequence was fourth-rounder Brady Poppinga, a linebacker who contributed largely on special teams, but Rodgers alone would make this a highly successful draft.

New England Patriots

Logan Mankins, their first-round pick, is a six-time Pro Bowler. Third-rounders Ellis Hobbs and Nick Kaczur were important role players and occasional starters, as was fourth-round choice James Sanders. In the seventh round, New England selected a backup quarterback, Matt Cassel, who led the team to an 11-5 record was Tom Brady was injured in 2008, made a Pro Bowl with the Chiefs, and is expected to compete for a starting job in Buffalo in 2015.

B+

Atlanta Falcons

Made good choices early, selecting Roddy White in the first round and Jonathan Babineaux in the second. White is one of the finest receivers of his generation, with four Pro Bowls and over 10,000 receiving yards. Babineaux has never made a Pro Bowl, but he is the most underrated defensive tackle of the past decade, a playmaker who demands double-teams and creates problems for opponents. Michael Boley and Chauncey Davis were also part of this draft class.

B

Philadelphia Eagles

Twelve draft picks, the most of any team. Two of those twelve, pass rusher Trent Cole and offensive lineman Todd Herremans, started for the Eagles in 2014. First-round pick Mike Patterson was a good defensive tackle, second-rounder Reggie Brown gained 2,500 receiving yards in five seasons, and defensive back Sean Considine had his moments.

San Francisco 49ers

First overall pick Alex Smith was up and down, but a disappointment given his draft position. The Niners redeemed their draft in the third round, selecting Frank Gore and Adam Snyder. Gore has been the team's best player, the one weapon on an offense that stuttered for most of the last decade. Snyder has started 88 games on the offensive line, 73 of them with San Francisco. The 49ers drafted 11 players in '05. All 11 played in the NFL, five of them more than 100 games.

San Diego Chargers

Through 2014, their draft has produced seven Pro Bowl seasons. That's tied for second-most of any team, far behind Dallas (13), but equal to Green Bay and New England. Shawne Merriman was Defensive Rookie of the Year in '05, all-pro and a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in '06, and a Pro Bowler in '07. Merriman came back from an injury too early and wrecked his career, but he was an even more sensational young player than DeMarcus Ware.

The Chargers' next three picks yielded Luis Castillo (a six-year starter on the defensive line), Vincent Jackson (a three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver), and Darren Sproles (a dynamic dual-threat RB and a Pro Bowl returner). Jackson and Sproles have had some of their best seasons with other teams, or the Chargers would rate even higher.

Tennessee Titans

The opposite of San Diego: they rate here because two of their three successful draft picks, offensive linemen Michael Roos and David Stewart, spent their whole careers in Nashville. Roos, a second-round choice out of Eastern Washington, was one of the steadiest OTs of his generation, while Stewart was an eight-year starter who played 116 games for the Titans. The team's first-round draft pick, Pac-Man Jones, was a decent cornerback and explosive returner, who overcame persistent off-field issues to re-emerge as Adam Jones, a decent cornerback and explosive returner for the Cincinnati Bengals.

Tight end Bo Scaife and DB Reynaldo Hill were good values late in the draft.

B-

Kansas City Chiefs

Their draft only produced two players of consequence. Linebacker Derrick Johnson is a three-time Pro Bowler, still with Kansas City a decade later. Third-round selection Dustin Colquitt is arguably the greatest punter of this generation, a year-in, year-out performer. Their next-best draft pick, I guess, might have been sixth-round choice Will Svitek, who has played for four teams — mostly as a backup — and was still active in 2014.

New York Giants

Four picks, fewest of any team. But three of the four played over 100 games in the NFL. Justin Tuck was a two-time Pro Bowler, and a critical player on the team that won Super Bowl XLII. Defensive back Corey Webster was a six-year starter, and running back Brandon Jacobs rushed for 1,000 yards in the '07 and '08 seasons.

Seattle Seahawks

Surprised everyone by drafting Mississippi's Chris Spencer in the first round, but he had some good seasons — I voted for him to make the Pro Bowl in 2007 — and he started five games for Tennessee last season. Lofa Tatupu made three Pro Bowls, and fellow LB LeRoy Hill showed flashes. Tatupu and Hill were starters on Seattle's 2005 Super Bowl team.

C+

St. Louis Rams

Seven of their draft picks played over 60 games in the NFL, but none became stars, and several were released by the Rams but caught on with other teams. Both their seventh-round picks became adequate players, which is phenomenal, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and fullback Madison Hedgecock are better known for their work outside of St. Louis. Third-round choice O.J. Atogwe was probably the best player from the Rams' draft class, but the first two picks, OT Alex Barron and DB Ron Bartell, made some contributions. The only Pro Bowler from their draft was offensive guard Richie Incognito, though he's bounced around the league due to being a jackass.

Fitzpatrick, who started three games for the Rams, and threw twice as many INTs as TDs, is their only '05 draft choice who played in 2014.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Used their first pick on Heath Miller, a solidly above-average tight end. He's a good blocker, a good receiver, a good fit for the system, a good fit for the city of Pittsburgh (Heeeeeath), and a starter on two Super Bowl teams. The Steelers also drafted Bryant McFadden, Trai Essex, and Chris Kemoeatu in 2005. None of those guys are stars, but they all played a role on some awfully successful teams.

Carolina Panthers

Sometimes a team doesn't realize what it has. The Panthers drafted Evan Mathis, Jovan Haye, and Joe Berger this year. Mathis played seven seasons for the Panthers, Dolphins, and Bengals before emerging as a two-time Pro Bowl guard with the Eagles. Haye was cut after appearing in two games, but helped the Buccaneers make the playoffs in '07 and became a three-year starter. Berger never appeared in a regular-season game for Carolina, but he's spent 10 seasons in the NFL, mostly as a backup and special teamer, and was still active in 2014.

The Panthers' first-round pick, Thomas Davis, has struggled with injuries but played well when healthy. Fifth-round pick Geoff Hangartner appeared in over 100 games, mostly as a starter.

Miami Dolphins

First-round selection Ronnie Brown, taken second overall, never became a star, with a career-high of 1,008 rushing yards. But he played for a decade, rushed for over 5,000 yards, and made some positive contributions for the Dolphins. Among other things, Brown was the spark for Miami's innovative Wildcat offense. Linebacker Channing Crowder was a starter for a few seasons, while Matt Roth and Travis Daniels combined to play over 200 games. Seventh-round pick Kevin Vickerson never played for Miami, but he started for the Broncos team that played in Super Bowl XLVIII.

C

New York Jets

They had no first-round selection, but two second-round picks, used on Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent and Clemson DB Justin Miller. Nugent is still active, and Miller was a Pro Bowl returner, but the Jets were more successful with their third- and fourth-round choices, DT Sione Pouha and defensive back Kerry Rhodes. Tight end Joel Dreesen played nine seasons, which is good for a sixth-rounder.

Washington

I didn't lower their rank for stupidity, but I probably should have. When teams target a specific player in the first round of the draft, but outside the top two or three picks, they normally make the trade immediately before that selection, so as not to tip their hand. Washington, targeting Auburn QB Jason Campbell, traded first-, third-, and fourth-round choices to Denver in exchange for the 25th pick ... but they made the trade prior to the beginning of the draft. Aaron Rodgers unexpectedly dropped out of the top 10, and Green Bay drafted him 24th, one spot before Washington. With even a touch of foresight, Washington could have drafted Rodgers instead of Campbell.

Campbell was okay. He was a below-average starter, but he wasn't terrible, and he's still active as a solid backup. Fellow first-rounder Carlos Rogers was an adequate cornerback, but had his best season in San Francisco. No one else from this draft made any impact in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Used their first two picks on Offensive Rookie of the Year Cadillac Williams and a good middle linebacker, Barrett Ruud. Williams struggled with injuries and Ruud only had a few good seasons. Their only other draft pick of any note was the "other" Alex Smith, a tight end from Stanford.

C-

Chicago Bears

Fifth overall pick Cedric Benson was a massive disappointment in Chicago, though he had three 1,000-yard seasons for the Bengals. Kyle Orton was a reasonably steady backup, but he's had his best years elsewhere, too. The only other draft choice to start with any frequency was defensive back Chris Harris, a sixth-round choice out of Louisiana-Monroe, who is best known for his time with the Carolina Panthers.

The Bears selected some good players, but none of them were especially successful as Bears.

Oakland Raiders

Four picks in the first three rounds, of whom the only real washout was quarterback Andrew Walter. Fabian Washington and Stanford Routt played a combined 200 games, and linebacker Kirk Morrison was a six-year starter with the Raiders and (in 2010) Jaguars. Morrison led the team in tackles five times, and in '07, he intercepted four passes.

Cleveland Browns

Braylon Edwards had one brilliant season (1,289 yards, 16 TD), but if the Browns could do it again, they would draft Roddy White instead. Brodney Pool played 100 games in the NFL, and Charlie Frye was a serviceable backup QB for a few years.

New Orleans Saints

First-round choice Jammal Brown made two Pro Bowls, but a torn ACL prevented him from playing during the 2009 Super Bowl season. Afterward, Brown played two unimpressive seasons in Washington, then retired. Defensive back Josh Bullocks is the only other Saint from this draft to make any impact in the NFL.

D+

Denver Broncos

Best pick was sixth-round offensive lineman Chris Myers, who has started 128 games in a row ... 112 of them for the Houston Texans. Denver's next-best draft pick might have been Domonique Foxworth, who was mostly a nickel back.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Shocked analysts by using their first pick on Arkansas QB Matt Jones, whom they attempted to convert to wide receiver. The experiment was a failure, and Jones retired after four years. Second-round choice Khalif Barnes was more successful, and defensive back Gerald Sensabaugh was a pleasant surprise in the fifth round, though his best seasons came mostly in Dallas.

Indianapolis Colts

Drafted three defensive backs who played on their Super Bowl XLI-winning team: Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, and Matt Giordano. Dylan Gandy and Tyjuan Hagler were sort of okay for a little while.

Arizona Cardinals

Antrel Rolle fell to them with the 8th overall selection, and he's had a nice career with both the Cardinals and Giants. The rest of their draft produced some guys who stuck around for a while — J.J. Arrington, Eric Green, Darryl Blackstock — but no one who made any real impact.

Baltimore Ravens

There were times when it looked like Mark Clayton would deliver on the promise that made him a first-round draft pick. But Clayton was never a consistent playmaker, never had a 1,000-yard season, and the Ravens gave up on him after five years. Second-rounder Dan Cody may have been the most disappointing pick of the entire draft. He played in two games and retired with no solo tackles and one assist.

But in later rounds, Baltimore acquired center Jason Brown and quarterback Derek Anderson. Brown was a Pro Bowl-caliber player for a couple years, a starter in both Baltimore and St. Louis. Anderson never played for the Ravens, but he had one brilliant season as QB of the Browns, and has bounced around the league as backup and spot starter since.

D

Cincinnati Bengals

Odell Thurman had a brilliant rookie season (98 tackles, 5 INT), but you may remember that many Bengals had legal problems around this time, and Thurman was their king. Despite his excellent rookie year, Thurman never played in the NFL again, due to substance abuse and legal issues. First-round pick David Pollack retired after little more than one season, due to injury concerns. Third-rounder Chris Henry showed flashes of ability, but he was out of the league even before his untimely death.

The Bengals drafted some talented players in '05, but none of them could stay on the field. Seventh-rounder Jonathan Fanene played the most games (71) of anyone from Cincinnati's draft.

D-

Detroit Lions

Mike Williams, a year removed from his playing career at USC, was their first pick. I loved it at the time, teaming Williams with Charles Rogers and Roy Williams to give the Lions three receivers who all demanded high-level coverage. It didn't work out, but Mike Williams did have one season when he looked like he might be good. DT Shaun Cody was one of the best defensive players on the team for a few years, but that's when Detroit had the worst defense in the NFL.

Houston Texans

Jerome Mathis made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, with 1,500 kickoff return yards, a 28.6 average, and 2 TDs. He had one more return TD in '07, then he was out of the league. Mathis was the most successful player Houston drafted in '05. Travis Johnson and C.C. Brown started for a few seasons, but probably would have been backups on a better team.

Buffalo Bills

First-round choice Roscoe Parrish was a good punt returner. Second-round selection Kevin Everett suffered a scary, career-ending injury in 2007. No one from their draft class was ever a regular starter.

F

Minnesota Vikings

An exciting first round quickly turned bitter, as Troy Williamson (7th overall) and Erasmus James (18th) failed to meet expectations. Williamson stuck in the league for five seasons, as a returner and backup receiver, but James played only 12 games for the Vikings and ended his career with just 5 sacks. Defensive tackle C.J. Mosley, their seventh-rounder out of Miizzou, played only one season with the Vikings (he had a career-high three sacks), but has bounced around the league for a decade, appearing in 129 games with five teams, mostly as a backup and special teamer.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

April 27, 2015

Peeking Forward to Round Two

We can be completely honest with ourselves after the first week and change of the 2015 NBA playoffs. After a fantastic regular season with great players and teams, compelling and unexpected storylines, and generally brilliant basketball on a nightly basis, it's been a lackluster first round of series.

Through about the midway point of the first round, as I write this on Sunday before the conclusion of any game, one series is over, four more have the series score at three games to none, and two others (Milwaukee/Chicago and Atlanta/Brooklyn) are serious mismatches that should finish the way of the favorites.

Only one series, between the Spurs and Clippers, doesn't carry a total feeling of inevitability about it. And it's perhaps the one series where the quality of the two teams seems worthy of a conference finals, due to the crazy Rockets/Clippers/Grizzlies/Spurs logjam in the West and the NBA's outdated division system that put the Blazers in the No. 4 seed.

That's not to say there haven't been some magnificent and thrilling games already. Game 2 of Spurs/Clippers, Game 3 of Bulls/Bucks, Game 3 of Mavericks/Rockets, and Game 3 of Warriors/Pelicans were all great games that might get overlooked as classics due to the blowout nature of the first round.

However, a first round with lopsided matchups by series score could lead to a blockbuster May and June to close out the playoffs.

We're already pretty confident that we know three of the conference semifinal matchups. Barring an unprecedented comeback from down three games, or the 60-win Hawks losing four of five to the distinctly average and uncompelling Nets, the Warriors and Grizzlies; Bulls and Cavs; and Hawks and Wizards will play each other in the next round. Then the Rockets will be playing either the Spurs or Clippers.

I'm not breaking any news to say that the Warriors, Hawks and Cavs will be favored in those series, and probably quite heavily. The Rockets playing the Clippers would probably be a toss-up, and the Spurs would be favored against Houston. So, it's possible that those series would take on the same general nature as the first round. It's unlikely, though.

The interesting thing about this round is that the individual games themselves haven't always been indicative of sweeps and 3-1 leads.

The Warriors and Cavs are seemingly everyone's consensus picks for the Finals, but in their respective series against the Pelicans and Celtics, each team really has only played up to a very high level for about a quarter or a few minutes at a time.

It's becoming trite to hear commentators talk every game about, "We talked to LeBron, and he says the team needs to play better despite the win in the last game." Yet, LeBron has been to the Finals four years in a row, and knows his team has to play better than they have against the rebuilding and limited Celtics team that has had to overhaul key positions three times during the season due to trades.

As the defenses get better later in the playoffs, it's unrealistic and probably delusional to think that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (especially if he misses extended time with the shoulder injury he picked up in Game 4), as good as they are, will hit half of their three-point attempts. While a matchup against the Bulls would probably take on the same feel of LeBron's Heat series against the Bulls, what with Chicago having the less-talented roster and the Bulls making LeBron's team work really hard for four wins, Chicago has been quite good shooting the ball, with an effective FG percentage of 51.7 through four games against Milwaukee.

For Golden State, they have the luxury of knowing that their best is better than anyone else's in the league, and it's not really close. When the Warriors get in a rhythm when they're running the floor, getting stops, flying around, draining threes from the Splash Bros., and yet still spacing the floor like they've been playing together since they were 19, they're absolutely impossible to stop. I'm not sure the league has had such a fun team to watch at full flight since the Showtime Lakers.

I thought earlier in the season that the way to beat the Warriors was to get them in a rock-fight, and try to grind out four wins with the possession count in the high 80s or low 90s. In other words, Memphis would be as perfect a matchup as you could muster against one of the 10 best regular season teams in history.

I don't think that anymore. We know the Warriors are going to get stops, even if your offense uses up a lot of the shot clock. This isn't Mike D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" Suns we're talking about here. Those stops, in many cases, are going to lead transition opportunities, and those potential all-cylinders-go hyper-speed Golden State runs.

More and more, I think you have to hold them to merely one or two of those runs in the course of the game, and try to sell out as much for your transition defense as you can without completely punting on rebounding. The thing is, Golden State's offensive wizardry and craftiness can be great in the half-court, too. And you know what? I don't think New Orleans really did that bad a job, despite getting swept and allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions.

But make no mistake, Memphis can give Golden State trouble, and it's possible for them to take the series. It's just going to require them playing a more perfect series than their Bay Area counterparts. A fully healthy Mike Conley would have also been ideal to matchup with Golden State's frontcourt, but he was still playing at a high level before he went down in a scary way with a face injury in Game 3 of the Portland series.

As for the Hawks, I'm not quite sure what to make of them at this point. Quite frankly, their series with Brooklyn has been crap. Neither team is averaging over a point per possession, and Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll are the only Hawks that can shoot a lick through three games. Like I mentioned before, they're still way better than the Nets, and should win the series, but this is a worrying sign.

The Wizards right now are completely whitewashing the Raptors and Kyle Lowry's skeleton (remember how he was the starting East point guard at the All-Star Game?) despite John Wall and Bradley Beal each shooting below 40 percent from the floor and below 30 percent from three.

With more of a contribution from the Washington starting backcourt, plus Paul Pierce playing like 2008 Paul Pierce and Otto Porter finally looking something like the third pick in the draft, the Wizards could absolutely beat an Atlanta team in a funk.

I'm not sure that I can ever remember a more lopsided first round by series score or that observers have been able to confidently name three of the next round's matchups a week into the second season. However, those matchups should produce more drama than the playoffs have produced so far.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 2:32 PM | Comments (0)

April 23, 2015

A Wild Weekend in Kansas City

In the name of God and His servant Stengel, and there were those who thought they were one and the same once upon a time, exactly what the hell was that we saw in Kansas City last weekend? Who did these Royals and Athletics think they were — the Dodgers and the Giants? The Red Sox and the Yankees? The Romans and the Carthaginians? Hockey players?

Just don't mistake them for Jack Benny and Fred Allen. When those two legendary radio comedians feuded for the better part of a decade and a half, it was strictly for laughs and laughs they got, in abundance. What the Royals and the Athletics were doing at Kauffman Stadium all weekend long wasn't even close to a mere snort. Even if about half the personnel on both teams might have needed a snort when it finally ended.

They may even forget that what was billed going in as a pleasant weekend's rematch between last year's American League wild card winners ended in the Royals taking two out of the three basebrawl games, outscoring the A's 15-6 all weekend and winning Sunday afternoon despite five Royals getting ejected.

It started last Friday night in the seventh inning with one of the oldest known plays in the game. The takeout slide to bust up a double play has been as much a part of baseball as the curve ball, the three-run homer, and the Yogi Berra malaprop. Whether it ended with Royals pitchers Yordano Ventura (fine, amount undisclosed at this writing) and Kelvim Herrera (five-game suspension) disciplined for throwing at Athletics third baseman Brett Lawrie last Saturday and Sunday, respectively, remains to be seen.

The war began last Friday, when Lawrie plowed Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar in a hard sliding bid to break a double play in the top of the eighth. Escobar suffered a knee sprain and the Royals suffered a case of the itch to get even. Or at least a case of ignoring their own manager.

"I can't judge intent," Ned Yost said after the 6-4 win. He also said he didn't think Lawrie's somewhat late slide was really a bid to draw and quarter Escobar. Neither did Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer. "It was a weird play," he told reporters. "It was obviously late, but I don't think he meant anything by it."

Shame they didn't get the message to Saturday starter Ventura, who should have gotten it after he tried a little rough stuff with Angels superman Mike Trout the previous weekend. When Josh Reddick whacked a 3-run homer in the fourth Saturday, Ventura seized the opportunity to drill Lawrie two pitches later.

Lawrie was the leadoff batter an inning earlier. If Ventura wanted to send him a message on behalf of protecting an injured teammate, why the hell didn't Ventura throw him one up and in then? You can bet Saturday's plate umpire Jim Joyce had the same question in mind as he ejected Ventura at once in the fourth.

Lawrie calmly took his base as both benches poured onto the field and Joyce's crew went to work containing it. He said later he tried to send Escobar a text message apologizing for the Friday night slide, but Escobar apparently never received it. Or, ignored it.

On a day when the Royals lost bullpen bull Greg Holland (he of the fabled H-D-H team) to the 15-day disabled list with a pectoral strain, getting shut out 5-0 with all the Oakland runs coming in that testy fourth was the last thing they needed. And Reddick himself left the impression that if Ventura had sent Lawrie the message when the third baseman batted for the first time in the game, even the A's would have thought nothing further of it.

Come Sunday, Scott Kazmir, the A's starter, plunked Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain (the occasional one-man highlight reel from last October) on the foot in the first inning. Yost and Royals pitching coach Dave Eiland argued with Sunday plate ump Greg Gibson over the plunk and got thrown out post haste as the warnings went out to both side.

Did either Yost or Eiland stop to think that if Kazmir wanted send a message over Lawrie's Saturday plunk he wasn't going to throw at Cain's foot? Or did they think that, since everyone knows you're not going to aim at the feet when you want to send the other guys a message, maybe Kazmir knew exactly what he was doing? And would you blame Kazmir for wanting to send the Royals a little message about sending the right and wrong ones?

Either way, the Royals seemed as likely to heed the warnings as Islamic State is to outlaw beheadings among its charges. Sure enough, Herrera, the second H in H-D-H for the Royals, and apparently looking for payback over Cain, threw a hundred mile an hour heater behind Lawrie's upper back, clear across the letter of his name on the back of his uniform, in the eighth — after starting him off with a pitch inside and tight.

As he headed for the dugout following his ejection, Herrera pointed to his head. Lawrie was even less amused. "You can't throw at my head and then say, `Next time I face you, it's in the head'," Lawrie steamed after the Royals finished the ugly win. "He needs to pay for that. He doesn't throw 85. He throws 100."

Herrera swore the advent of rain made his grip difficult while trying only to throw to the inside part of the plate. He also said the only reason for the point to his head was to tell Lawrie, "Think about it." Sure.

Herrera was joined on the ejection list by Escobar himself, who barked during the ensuing argument, and Royals bench coach Don Wakamatsu, who was acting manager following Yost's ejection. The benches and bullpens emptied after Herrera's head point.

In one way you could understand the Royals' anger. Bad enough they were starting a season trying to overcome the thought that they were last year's fluke. Bad enough they were already the majors' second most often plunked team and stayed that way through the weekend.

But right or wrong timing they'd sent Lawrie the message about the Friday night fright, even if Ventura might have been acting entirely on his own. And the Royals won't have that long a wait to tangle with the A's again: they hook up in Oakland in June. Baseball government is going to have a wary eye on that set no matter what disciplinary action comes from the weekend now done.

The A's probably felt, bad enough they blew a four-run lead to the Royals in a 2014 wild card game they almost had in the bank, but worse is when too much isn't enough when it comes to sending one of their own a message about a hard takeout slide.

The Royals were one of baseball's most likable teams last year. That was then, this is now, and nobody looks good letting their inner bully come forth and stay there after enough really was enough.

After Sunday's mess and Royals' win, Yost admitted he fell asleep on the new sofa in his office following his first-inning toss. "By the time I woke up," he told reporters, "everybody was screaming and yelling in the locker room." He probably wishes he'd slept through the entire weekend.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 12:52 PM | Comments (0)

April 22, 2015

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 8

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kevin Harvick — Harvick led 184 laps at Bristol, but his fortunes turned dramatically when he crashed into David Ragan's spinning No. 18 car. Harvick finished 38th, 43 laps down, ending his streak of seven consecutive top-10 finishes this season.

"Jimmie Johnson started that wreck," Harvick said. "That wasn't the only one. Let's just say his Sprint Cup titles aren't the only reason they call Jimmie 'Six Time.'"

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson survived numerous incidents at Bristol to pull out an unlikely runner-up result in the Food City 500.

"I was involved in quite a few spins," Johnson said, "and those spins affected several other drivers. Put it this way: there were a lot of drivers looking at me 'sideways.'"

3. Joey Logano — Logano's day at Thunder Valley soured early when a wreck by teammate Brad Keselowski damaged the No. 22 Chevy. Logano eventually finished 40th, 59 laps down.

"That wreck knocked us both out of contention," Logano said, "and knocked our relationship into contention."

4. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski started second at Bristol and ran into early trouble when he lost control on lap 18 and slammed the wall, collecting Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano. Both Penske cars suffered extensive damage; Keselowski finished 35th, while Logano finished 40th.

"I'm not sure what happened," Keselowski said. "Usually, when I take a hard right like that, I expect Denny Hamlin to be in the way, not the wall."

"My good buddy Kyle Busch is out of his wheelchair. He'll probably be racing this summer, and I expect Kyle to be back better than ever. I bet you he'll be doing 195 miles per hour in the No. 18 at Daytona in July, or doing the same down some residential area in Moore County, North Carolina in a street car."

5. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex finished a disappointing 29th in the Food City 500, the first time he's finished out of the top 10 this season.

"Kurt Busch looked strong," Truex said, "until he decided to pit late in the race. Then he rear-ended Carl Edwards. That just killed Kurt's chances. That's why he's known as the 'Stewart-Haas-assin.'"

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 16th at Bristol, as Hendrick teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon took second and third, respectively. Earnhardt is sixth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 73 behind Kevin Harvick.

"From start to finish," Earnhardt said, "Sunday's race lasted nine hours. Most NASCAR races only seem to last that long."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth started on the pole in the Food City 500 and took the win, earning his first win of the season and a spot in the Chase For the Cup. Kenseth pulled away from Jimmie Johnson to capture his first win since the 2013 season.

"It's been a tough year for Joe Gibbs Racing," Kenseth said. "Kyle Busch has a gimpy ankle, Denny Hamlin has a bum neck, and Carl Edwards has a knuckle head.

"I must admit I was surprised when Kurt Busch pitted from the lead with 25 laps to go. Of course, it's not like I'm the only person to question a decision made by Kurt."

8. Kasey Kahne — Kahne was a victim of a late pileup triggered when Carl Edwards got loose racing side by side with Jeff Gordon. Kahne finished 37th, the worst result among Hendrick Motorsports drivers.

"Have you seen Kyle Busch lately?" Kahne said. "You know, Kyle used to drive the No. 5 car for Hendrick. His condition now should remind him of his final days at HMS, because he's 'got the boot.'"

9. Jeff Gordon — Gordon battled back from a loose wheel that set him back two laps to finish a solid third at Bristol. Gordon started second on the green-white-checkered finish, but was no match for Matt Kenseth, who restarted on the preferred outside line.

"Unlike me," Gordon said, "Kenseth has no intentions of retiring. Me? I've done enough in this business to call it a career. Four Sprint Cup titles and more money than I know what to do with. So I quit this rich."

10. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin was running fifth when neck spasms forced him from the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota on lap 22 during the race's first rain delay. JGR developmental driver Erik Jones took over and finished 26th.

"That's some neck 'restraint' even a HANS device would be proud of," Hamlin said.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:32 AM | Comments (0)

April 21, 2015

Sports Heaven

Not getting what we want is a fundamental part of being a sports fan. Whether it's a heart-breaking defeat in the playoffs, or a washout season that leaves us waiting for a high draft pick, our favorite teams lose. Our favorite players get traded, leave in free agency, get injured and retire. People we admired turn out to be scumbags, and people we already knew were scumbags win championships and make commercials. Life isn't fair, and nothing has taught us that lesson more clearly than our love of sports.

But another part of being a sports fan is that every once in a while, dreams come true. That high draft pick turns out to be the savior we needed, our favorite player makes the Hall of Fame, the last guy off the bench makes an incredible play to clinch the win, and so on. In those moments, sports do what very few other things in life can match: the impossible becomes possible. I've seen games that, if they were in a movie, you'd laugh off as unrealistic and cliched. When those things happen in real life, they do what the movies never could.

Of course, for every dream that comes true, there are 100 that don't. Everyone has their own ideas of heaven, but here's mine.

If there is a pro football heaven, it's a place where:

* We get to find out what happens in the alternate universe where Peyton Manning plays for the Patriots, and Tom Brady plays for the Colts. Also, Dan Marino plays for the 49ers and Joe Montana plays for the Dolphins. And while we're at it, let's flip Bart Starr with Johnny Unitas or Sonny Jurgensen, and Norm Van Brocklin with Otto Graham or Bobby Layne.

* We get to see what Doug Flutie would have done in the NFL from 1991-97, if an NFL team had used him the way the Bills did in '98.

* Herschel Walker, Tombstone Jackson, and Kenny Easley are in the Hall of Fame.

* Daniel Snyder has never owned a professional football franchise.

* Brett Favre stayed retired.

* The Steelers never, ever, wear their throwback jerseys.

* Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus didn't rip up their knees.

* Ernie Davis lived.

If there is a pro basketball heaven, it's a place where:

* No one uses Comic Sans.

* The 1990s Utah Jazz, with John Stockton and Karl Malone, won a championship.

* Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, Rasheed Wallace, and Jermaine O'Neal play on the same team.

* Michael Jordan never tried to play for the White Sox.

* These teams compete in a tournament.

* No one skips the Olympics.

* Len Bias lived.

If there is a baseball heaven, it's a place where:

* Batters don't step out of the box between pitches.

* We get to see what Satchel Paige, Josh Gibson, and other Negro League stars would have done in the majors.

* And Sadaharu Oh.

* No one used performance-enhancing drugs.

* Sandy Koufax never blew out his arm.

* The Montreal Expos won the 1994 World Series.

* Joe Morgan never became an announcer.

* No one skips the World Baseball Classic.

* Sidd Finch lived.

And if there is a sports heaven, it's a place where Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith have never been on television, Bo Jackson played until he was 40, no one attacked Monica Seles, the NCAA's mission is to help young athletes, there's a New Year's Eve MMA show in Japan every year, and Ty Webb won his eighth and final Masters over Happy Gilmore.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:32 AM | Comments (0)

April 20, 2015

One-Year Wonders Equals Long-Term Success

One-and-done vs. the college experience.

NBA factories vs. schools that put student in student-athlete.

Parody is starting to slip away from college basketball; turning instead into a new debate that was sparked by Bo Ryan moments after his Wisconsin team fell to Duke in the NCAA title game. The sport is seeing two types of programs; those who are recruiting massive amounts of NBA talent, knowing they can have them for one year and then move on and those who are recruiting players that are most likely to stay four years.

The majority fall in the latter category. Unfortunately for them, the former is winning.

Duke's national title certified two things. First, Mike Krzyzewski is even more brilliant a coach than recognized. Remember, Coach K was the same guy who was winning with players that stayed four years 20 years ago. In fact, you couldn't have a jersey raised to the rafters at Duke without a degree in hand. The game has changed and Krzyzewski changed right along with it. He adjusts to the current state of affairs and never stops winning.

Secondly, the "one and done" theory in college basketball works for programs that do it. There is no doubting the success that both Duke and Kentucky have had in recent years despite having to refill their rosters each year. The quality of talent that is willing to play for the Blue Devils or Wildcats for a year is worth the payoff. Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Jahlil Okafor easily made the new recruiting process better for Duke. And while Kentucky's Harrison twins leave with no national title, the seasons they gave Big Blue Nation were memorable ones that they certainly will remember fondly.

And, with their leaving for the NBA not having a negative effect on the school's APR, the trend is going to continue for years to come.

Sure, you're going to have a Wisconsin, or Michigan State, or Arizona come in and challenge for the title each year with more of a traditional program approach. The fact is, though, Kentucky, as long as their players decide to be a cohesive unit, is going to go deep each season with the system they have in place. And their place as a factory for NBA talent leaves a lot of schools in the lurch who have one or two players decide to declare early. The talent pool shrinks when seven or eight great players decide to play for one team in one recruiting class.

So, for now, it looks as though we'll have a status quo of several of the top schools going with one year college players (except, obviously for Wisconsin, as Ryan stated he'd never be "a one and done school"). The only thing that could change the current state is if the NBA decides (wisely, I might add) to allow high school seniors to declare for the NBA draft again.

Should that happen, parody should come back in full force.

Should that happen, Coach K will adjust yet again.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)

April 16, 2015

No Clear-Cut Favorite in NHL's Western Conference

With the Stanley Cup playoffs set to open on Wednesday, many consider the New York Rangers to be the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference. The Western Conference, though, is a different story. Despite the recent history of Western domination, each team in the conference has a noticeable flaw. Let's take a closer look at what each seed has to watch out for.

Anaheim Ducks — Though the Ducks finished well over 100 points, this isn't the same caliber of team that won the Cup nearly a decade ago. That team was anchored by two Hall of Fame defensemen in their prime, while this team has defense as their primary question mark with one of the smallest goal differentials among all playoff teams. With their goals against as one of the worst of all playoff teams, Bruce Boudreau's reputation is on the line with this top-seeded team.

St. Louis Blues — Perhaps the most top-to-bottom solid roster of the Western Conference, the Blues are the favorite on paper. Their biggest challenge might actually be facing themselves. This squad as a whole has been considered an elite contender for a number of seasons now, and each year they've folded when the spotlight is brightest. Thus, it becomes a test of character, particularly when facing a red-hot Devan Dubnyk, and the goal is to erase the stigma of wilting under the pressure.

Nashville Predators — This is the best Nashville team in franchise history, yet the last quarter of the season wasn't kind to the Predators. The first season of the post-Trotz era saw many positive things, but the inexplicable downward left both fans and players scratching their heads. Pekka Rinne was a potential MVP candidate early in the season, but the team let up four or more goals 10 times from March onward, costing them a shot at the Central Division and top spot in the west. This may be a new version of the Predators, but they probably wish they still had a touch of that Trotz stinginess.

Chicago Blackhawks — A serious injury to Patrick Kane took the wind out of Chicago's sails for the last chunk of the season. Though he began contact practice recently and is expected to play in the series, there's no way he can be at 100%. That puts a serious dent into the Hawks' depth, which had been their strength over recent playoff runs.

Vancouver Canucks — Vancouver survived what could have been a devastating injury to Ryan Miller thanks to some solid play by Eddie Lack down the stretch. But with the Sedin brothers hitting the latter stages of their career, goal scoring depth continues to plague the Canucks. This isn't the team that used to arm a 1-2 punch of the Sedin line and the Ryan Kesler line; instead there's a significant points drop-off from the top three scorers to everyone else on the Vancouver roster, and the team's poor goals-against continues to be a concern.

Minnesota Wild — Let's put this in perspective: Devan Dubnyk's save percentage with Minnesota is an unreal .936. That will regress to the norm at some point, but when will that happen? Perhaps it doesn't this season, and the Wild roll on with an unthinkable swagger to go with their strong roster. But we've seen plenty of examples of how the Stanley Cup playoffs truly are their own beast, with regular season stars going cold while heroes come out of nowhere. Minnesota's run was based on something unsustainable, but no one knows where the end of that streak actually is.

Winnipeg Jets — The former Atlanta Thrashers have now brought playoff hockey back to Winnipeg. How long will it last? The Jets competed hard and developed a reputation for work ethic, but at the same time lack game-breaking scorers. Winnipeg's special teams were decidedly middle of the road over the course of the NHL season, but that puts them near the bottom of the playoff-bound group.

Calgary Flames — Students of advanced stats will tell you that the Flames had a season of luck, similar to last year's Colorado Avalanche. At some point that luck runs out. Getting outshot and falling behind isn't a way to win in the playoffs, and it's a pattern the Flames would like to forget. Just look at how Colorado got bounced last year to see how the story may end.

Posted by Mike Chen at 1:31 PM | Comments (0)

April 15, 2015

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 7

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished second at Texas, earning his ninth runner-up finish in his last 10 races. He leads the Sprint Cup points standings by 26 over Joey Logano.

"Jimmie Johnson and I have won four of seven races this season," Harvick said. "Johnson's win at Texas supports the notion that the Sprint Cup championship is a two-man battle, and I 'seconded' that.

"I visited the Masters on Thursday in support of my friend Scott Harvey, who's an amateur. I took my Stewart-Haas Chevy with me. Every time Scott hit a shot, I said '4!'"

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson took the lead for good with 14 laps to go, passing Kevin Harvick and Jamie McMurray, to win the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

"Nothing's more satisfying that putting on a cowboy hat and firing off a few rounds from a six-shooter," Johnson said. "It's a feeling that's hard to describe, unless you're Kurt Busch, who would no doubt say he felt like an 'assassin.' And he knows.

"But I'm not a big fan of 10-gallon hats. I prefer my volume measured in 'Cups,' and seven is the quantity I'm looking for."

3. Joey Logano — Logano led 19 laps and finished fourth in the Duck Commander 500, posting his third top-five result of the season.

"Kurt Busch won his second pole of the season," Logano said. "In Kurt's world, winning the pole again is known as getting 'reinstated' to the first starting spot."

4. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski joined Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano, who finished fourth, in the top five with a fifth in the Duck Commander 500.

"It was a very uneventful race," Keselowski said. "Unlike November's race in Texas, nothing happened. Call it a 'ho humdinger.' Even the boredom was Texas-sized. Had the race last November been called the Duck Commander 500, maybe it would have done me some good. With all the shoves and punches flying at me them, a 'duck' call surely would have helped."

5. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex finished ninth in the Duck Commander 500, giving him six top-10s in the season's first seven races. He stands third in the points standings, 50 behind Kevin Harvick.

"There's another 'Junior' making news," Truex said. "Apparently, Danica Patrick would say 'yes' if Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. would propose. That puts Ricky in a truly awkward predicament. Now, it seems both Patrick and Stenhouse are in 'no-win' situation."

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt came home third on a strong day for Hendrick Motorsports, which placed four drivers in the top seven. Earnhardt is seventh is the points standings, 93 out of first.

"Rick Hendrick couldn't be happier," Earnhardt said. "Unlike a Richard Childress Racing tire, Rick's ego is fully inflated."

7. Kasey Kahne: Kahne finished eighth in the Duck Commander 500 after starting fourth and leading six laps.

"Did you see Michael Waltrip standing atop Texas Motor Speedway's giant video monitor?" Kahne said. "Michael looked a little wobbly up there, but then again, when has Michael ever been that sure of his 'orientation.'

8. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished seventh at Texas as all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers finished in the top seven. He

"I really wanted to win in Texas," Gordon said. "That would have been the perfect going away present. As it was, Jimmie Johnson won 'going away.'"

9. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished 11th at Texas, one spot behind Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Carl Edwards in 10th. Hamlin is seventh in the points standings.

"This race was called the 'NRA 500' in 2013," Hamlin said. "That was a scary day, especially for the No. 42 Target car.

"Michael Waltrip dropped a taco on my car before the race. It wasn't a big deal to me. It's one thing to have hot sauce on your Toyota; it's another to have hot sauce in your Toyota. Michael did; it was called 'jet fuel.'"

10. Jamie McMurray — McMurray finished sixth in the Duck Commander 500, scoring his third top-10 finish of the year.

"Wow!" McMurray said. "There were stars of the 'Duck Dynasty' show in Victory Lane. I really would have loved to win this race so I could have met the one and only Willie Robertson. That way, the 'McDaddy' could have met the 'Quack Daddy.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:06 AM | Comments (0)

April 14, 2015

NFL Drafts in Hindsight: 2005-2011

This year's NFL Draft is on the horizon, and speculation about Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota makes daily headlines. And why not? The NFL is the most popular sports league in North America, and there's not much else going on right now.

But rather than guessing about players who have never taken the field as pros, let's look back at those who already have, examining the best and worst from recent NFL draft classes. I did a project like this in 2013, covering the 2000-09 NFL drafts. Not much has changed from 2000-04, so this article examines 2005-11.

2005 NFL Draft

First Three Picks — San Francisco 49ers — Alex Smith (QB, Utah); Miami Dolphins — Ronnie Brown (RB, Auburn); Cleveland Browns — Braylon Edwards (WR, Michigan)

The Dolphins were one of three teams to draft a running back in the top five, with the Bears choosing Cedric Benson and the Buccaneers drafting Brown's teammate, Carnell "Cadillac" Williams.

Braylon Edwards was the third straight receiver chosen 3rd overall.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When I named my 2005 All-Pro team, I sold out and went with Cadillac over Patriots lineman Logan Mankins. I wish I could have that one back.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Shawne Merriman, OLB, San Diego Chargers

Possibly the most successful group of rookie linebackers in the history of the draft. Merriman was a runaway choice as DROY, but in most years, Lofa Tatupu (Pro Bowl), DeMarcus Ware (8 sacks), and Odell Thurman (98 tackles, 5 INT) would have been contenders. Derrick Johnson and LeRoy Hill had nice years, as well.

Best Offensive Player — Aaron Rodgers (QB, California), 24th overall

Rodgers sat on the bench behind Brett Favre for three years, but he's become such an exceptional player that he's the right choice. Roddy White, Logan Mankins, and Frank Gore were also rookies in '05.

Best Defensive Player — DeMarcus Ware (OLB, Troy), 11th overall

Ware has eight seasons of double-digit sacks, including two years leading the league. He has more career sacks (127) than Derrick Thomas (126.5), Julius Peppers (125.5), Dwight Freeney (111.5), or Terrell Suggs (106.5).

Best Non-First Round Pick — Frank Gore (RB, Miami), 65th overall

Two years ago, I gave this to Jeremiah Ratliff. But Ratliff has been invisible since then, while Gore is approaching a point in his career where he will deserve serious Hall of Fame consideration.

Worst Draft Picks — Minnesota Vikings' first round

The combination of Troy Williamson (7th) and Erasmus James (18th) has got to rank among the most disappointing first rounds in the history of the draft. Williamson stuck in the league for five seasons, as a returner and backup receiver, but James played only 12 games for the Vikings and ended his career with just 5 sacks.

Imagine if... Daniel Snyder were smart.

In the week leading up to the draft, Washington traded first-, third-, and fourth-round choices to the Broncos so it could move up and take quarterback Jason Campbell 25th. Aaron Rodgers unexpectedly fell in the draft, and Green Bay selected him 24th. If Snyder had waited until draft day, he could have traded up to get Rodgers instead of Campbell. Joe Gibbs and Santana Moss still have nightmares about this.

2006 NFL Draft

First Three Picks — Houston Texans — Mario Williams (DE, NC State); New Orleans Saints — Reggie Bush (RB, USC); Tennessee Titans — Vince Young (QB, Texas)

Leading into the draft, it was a foregone conclusion that Houston would either select Bush — hyped as the second coming of Gale Sayers — or reach for a local hero and take Vince Young. All three players had their moments, but none are still with the teams that drafted them.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans

Let the record show that I chose Maurice Jones-Drew, who led all rookies in TDs (16) while contributing as a rusher (941 yds, 5.7 avg), receiver (436 yds), and kickoff returner (860 yds, 27.7 avg). Young went 8-5 as a starter, but he had a 66.7 passer rating. Marques Colston was the prohibitive favorite halfway through the season, but injuries cost him time and contributed to a slow finish.

Devin Hester made the All-Pro team as a returner.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — DeMeco Ryans, MLB, Houston Texans

Ryans led the NFL in tackles and won DROY easily, but fellow rookies Mark Anderson and Kamerion Wimbley each got double-digit sacks, and Ravens rookies Dawan Landry and Haloti Ngata started for one of the greatest defensives in modern history.

Best Offensive Player — Nick Mangold (OL, Ohio State), 29th overall

This is still a really close call. I think Mangold will be the obvious standout five years from now, but at the moment, he's not very far ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew, Brandon Marshall, or Jahri Evans. If you count his returning as offense, Devin Hester could be a factor here, as well.

Best Defensive Player — Haloti Ngata (DL, Oregon), 12th overall

Ngata was a successful pro right away, and he's continued to play well, but this is also very close. Elvis Dumervil and Mario Williams both average 10 sacks a year. Antonio Cromartie is one of the best cornerbacks of this generation. Tamba Hali is quite a player. I'll be really interested to see how this class breaks down a couple years from now.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Jahri Evans (OL, Bloomsburg), 108th overall

Devin Hester and Maurice Jones-Drew were second-round picks, while Brandon Marshall and Evans both went in the fourth round, but for sheer value it might be Marques Colston (252nd out of Hofstra).

Worst Draft Pick — St. Louis Rams — Tye Hill (DB, Clemson), 15th overall

Matt Leinart (10th overall to Arizona) was also a pretty disastrous pick, but he got stuck on the depth chart behind a likely Hall of Famer (Kurt Warner) and his opportunities afterwards were limited by injuries. Hill dropped out of the league after making 25 starts in five years.

Imagine if... the Texans drafted Vince Young.

They wouldn't have traded for Matt Schaub, and he might have still been with the Falcons when Michael Vick got suspended. With Schaub in place, the Falcons never choose Matt Ryan...

2007 NFL Draft

First Three Picks — Oakland Raiders — JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU); Detroit Lions — Calvin Johnson (WR, Georgia Tech); Cleveland Browns — Joe Thomas (OT, Wisconsin)

I don't know if there's anything interesting to say about the top three selections — Russell was a disaster, while Johnson and Thomas are future Hall of Famers — but it's sobering to remember that the fourth overall pick, Clemson's Gaines Adams, has been dead for more than five years.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

He broke the single-game rushing record (296 yds) — the big record, not just the rookie mark — and rushed for 1,341 yards, with a 5.6 average. Joe Thomas also had a very strong rookie season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Patrick Willis, MLB, San Francisco 49ers

Willis led the league with 135 solo tackles. Fellow linebacker Jon Beason also played very well as a rookie.

Best Offensive Player — Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma), 7th overall

This is a close call between two players who have already established themselves among the best ever at their respective positions. I give Peterson a slight edge over Calvin Johnson, though I think Megatron will pass him eventually.

Best Defensive Player — Darrelle Revis (DB, Pitt), 14th overall

I've always thought Patrick Willis was a little overrated.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Eric Weddle (DB, Utah), 37th overall

Weddle is a two-time all-pro, and he's still one of the Chargers' best defensive players.

Worst Draft Pick — Oakland Raiders — JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU), 1st overall

People still talk about Ryan Leaf, but I don't think there's ever been a worse draft choice than Russell. He held out, scored a record contract, and then stunk up the field about as badly as possible.

Imagine if... the Raiders drafted Calvin Johnson instead of Russell.

Why select the best receiver in a generation when you can reach for a quarterback?

2008 NFL Draft

First Three Picks — Miami Dolphins — Jake Long (OT, Michigan); St. Louis Rams — Chris Long (DE, Virginia); Atlanta Falcons — Matt Ryan (QB, Boston College)

On draft day, I thought the top four GMs were crazy for not choosing Glenn Dorsey (DT, LSU). Oops.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Along with new head coach Mike Smith and free agent RB Michael Turner, Ryan turned the Falcons from a 4-12 disaster into a playoff team. A number of other rookies had big years, most notably 1,000-yard rushers Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Jerod Mayo, LB, New England Patriots

In a bit of a down year for rookie defenders, Mayo was the only contender, winning 49 of 50 DROY votes. Cincinnati's Keith Rivers got the other.

Best Offensive Player — Chris Johnson (RB, East Carolina), 24th overall

Johnson never duplicated his incredible 2009 season, but he did have five other 1,000-yard rushing seasons, his career average is over 4.5, and he had four years of double-digit touchdowns.

Fellow RB Ray Rice had some great years, and Saints guard Carl Nicks is one of the best at his position. Matt Ryan will probably be the best of all eventually, but that's projecting. I'll stick with Johnson for now.

Best Defensive Player — Calais Campbell (DL, Miami), 50th overall

Jerod Mayo can't seem to stay healthy, and Campbell has emerged as the best 3-4 defensive end this side of J.J. Watt. He does a lot of the same things for Arizona that Justin Smith did for the 49ers.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Carl Nicks (OL, Nebraska), 164th overall

This is a value pick. Straight up, you'd probably go with Calais Campbell (50th).

Worst Draft Pick — New York Jets — Vernon Gholston (DL, Ohio State), 6th overall

Gholston started five games and was out of the league after three years.

Imagine if... we could re-draft RBs.

Five running backs were chosen in the first round of the '08 draft: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, and Chris Johnson. In the second and third rounds: Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, and Steve Slaton.

If you let those teams choose again, the Raiders would probably take Charles (or Johnson, if Al Davis were running the draft). The Panthers would choose the other, then waste him in a time share with three other RBs. The Cowboys would presumably want Forte or Rice. Let's give them Forte. That leaves Pittsburgh with Ray Rice.

The first four RBs off the board (Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Rashard Mendenhall) don't hold a candle to the second- and third-round guys.

2009 NFL Draft

First Three Picks — Detroit Lions — Matthew Stafford (QB, Georgia); St. Louis Rams — Jason Smith (OT, Baylor); Kansas City Chiefs — Tyson Jackson (DL, LSU)

How far down do you have to go in this draft to find an obvious success? Aaron Curry, Mark Sanchez, Andre Smith, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Eugene Monroe, and B.J. Raji complete the top 10. I guess you could argue for Stafford. But to find a player of whom everyone would say, "Yes! He is worth a top-10 draft pick," I think you'd have to go to Clay Matthews with the 26th pick. This was not an especially strong first round.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings

This was a sad year for offensive rookies. Someone had to win.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Brian Cushing, LB, Houston Texans

As a rookie, Cushing recorded 5 sacks, 4 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, double-digit pass deflections, and a safety, while leading his team in tackles. Fellow rookie Jairus Byrd tied for the league lead with 9 interceptions, while Brian Orakpo and Clay Matthews both had double-digit sacks.

Best Offensive Player — LeSean McCoy (RB, Pitt), 53rd overall

McCoy has three seasons of 1,300 rushing yards, and his playing style has drawn comparisons to Barry Sanders. Several offensive linemen could eventually claim this title from McCoy: Max Unger, Andy Levitre, Sebastian Vollmer, Louis Vasquez ... the group is still developing. The other potential threat to McCoy comes from top overall draft pick Matthew Stafford. His career has been a little uneven, but with more consistency, Stafford could make half a dozen Pro Bowls.

Best Defensive Player — Clay Matthews III (OLB, USC), 26th overall

Matthews might the most well-rounded linebacker in football today. He's an imposing pass rusher, good at playing the run, and effective in pass coverage. He can play anywhere on the field, and he has an instinct for big plays.

Best Non-First Round Pick — LeSean McCoy (RB, Pitt), 53rd overall

These players are still young, and this list is in flux. James Laurinaitis (35th), Jairus Byrd (42), Connor Barwin (46), Max Unger (49), Sebastian Vollmer (58), DeAndre Levy (76), and Glover Quin (112) are some of the most notable possibilities to surpass McCoy.

I'm looking at the draft itself, so undrafted free agents don't count. Arian Foster obviously belongs in this conversation, but he's not technically part of this draft class.

Worst Draft Pick — St. Louis Rams — Jason Smith (OT, Baylor), 2nd overall

The Rams let him go after just three years and 26 starts. He was a backup and special teamer for the Jets in 2012, then out of the league.

Imagine if... we knew about Clay Matthews.

Four linebackers were chosen before Matthews: Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo, Brian Cushing, and Larry English. How terrifying would the Seahawks' defense be if they had drafted Matthews instead of Curry? What would opponents do if Washington had Matthews lining up opposite Ryan Kerrigan? Cushing has shown flashes of brilliance, but even the Texans probably wish they had drafted Matthews instead. Larry English is a special teamer, and a good one, but Matthews could have seamlessly filled the void left by Shawne Merriman.

2010 NFL Draft

First Three Picks — St. Louis Rams — Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma); Detroit Lions — Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska); Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)

Three of the first four picks were Oklahoma Sooners, with Washington selecting offensive tackle Trent Williams fourth overall.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams

The worst selection in the history of the award. Bradford's 76.5 passer rating ranked 25th in the NFL, while the Rams had the 26th-ranked offense in the league. I'm curious to see how Chip Kelly uses Bradford — until the inevitable season-ending injury — but I don't understand the enthusiasm for a player who has never looked like an above-average NFL quarterback.

I selected Maurkice Pouncey.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions

Detroit's ranks for yards allowed and points allowed — 2007: 32nd and 32nd, 2008: 32nd and 32nd, 2009: 32nd and 32nd, 2010: 21st and 19th. Suh almost single-handedly turned this from one of the worst defenses in history into a unit that was pretty close to average. He closed out his rookie year with 49 tackles, 10 sacks, 3 pass deflections, an interception, a forced fumble, and a touchdown on a fumble return.

Best Offensive Player — Rob Gronkowski (TE, Arizona), 42nd overall

Gronkowski is a good blocker, and the best receiving tight end in the NFL. He's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. If Gronk has trouble staying healthy, this would probably go to a lineman (Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, Trent Williams) or a receiver (Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas).

Best Defensive Player — Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska), 2nd overall

Suh is a monster, the most disruptive defensive tackle in the game. But this was a seriously loaded defensive class, also including NaVorro Bowman, Joe Haden, Gerald McCoy, and Earl Thomas, among several other standouts.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Antonio Brown (WR, Central Michigan), 195th overall

NaVorro Bowman (91st) and Jimmy Graham (95th) were third-round picks, and Kam Chancellor (133) was a fifth-round choice, but for sheer value, it's tough to beat Antonio Brown. He's had back-to-back 100-catch seasons, he's a standout returner, and he was first-team all-pro in 2014.

Worst Draft Pick — Baltimore Ravens — Sergio Kindle (LB, Texas), 43rd overall

The worst pick from the first round was probably Tim Tebow, but Kindle basically never played, an almost unheard-of washout for a second round pick. Dogged by injuries and off-field issues, Kindle played in three regular-season games, mostly on special teams. He retired with one tackle in his NFL career.

Imagine if... the Rams took Suh

... and waited until 2012 to draft their quarterback of the future, with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, and Russell Wilson all on the board.

2011 NFL Draft

First Three Picks — Carolina Panthers — Cam Newton (QB, Auburn); Denver Broncos — Von Miller (LB, Texas A&M); Buffalo Bills — Marcell Dareus (DL, Alabama)

Everyone at the top of this draft has been successful. Besides Newton, Miller, and Dareus, A.J. Green (4th), Patrick Peterson (5th), and Julio Jones (6th) have also capitalized on the promise that got them drafted — those six players have already made a combined 17 Pro Bowls. The highest-drafted player not to reach the Pro Bowl was Jake Locker, who was drafted 8th, but had trouble staying healthy and announced his retirement earlier this year.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

The Bengals' top two choices both played well. A.J. Green gained over 1,000 yards and became the first rookie wideout to make a Pro Bowl since Anquan Boldin in 2003. Andy Dalton took over for Carson Palmer and played mostly like a veteran, passing for 3,400 yards, with 7 more TDs than INTs, and leading Cincinnati to the playoffs.

But Newton had one of the greatest rookie seasons in history. He threw for 4,051 yards, a rookie record, and ran for 706 more. He threw 21 TD passes and rushed for another 14. He took over an offense that ranked last in the NFL by a huge margin, and directed it to the 5th-highest total in the league.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos

Miller contributed 11 sacks and dominated the voting (39 ballots out of 50), but this was a strong year for rookie defenders. Aldon Smith, who drew the 11 votes that didn't go to Miller, had 14 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and a safety. Ryan Kerrigan tallied 7.5 sacks, 4 FF, and an interception, while Patrick Peterson was a 16-game starter at cornerback, who intercepted 2 passes and scored 4 punt return TDs.

Best Offensive Player — Cam Newton (QB, Auburn), 1st overall

Newton put up exceptional stats in his first two seasons, then led the Panthers to back-to-back NFC South titles. A.J. Green has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since he set foot on the field.

Best Defensive Player — J.J. Watt (DL, Wisconsin), 11th overall

Out of his four NFL seasons, Watt has been all-pro in three of them, Defensive Player of the Year in two, and the only unanimous DPOY in history. Watt is the only player since 1982, when the stat became official, with two 20-sack seasons. And sacks might not even be the strongest aspect of Watt's game. He routinely makes the most tackles of any lineman, he knocks down the most passes, he beats the most double-teams. Watt is on pace to become the most dominant defensive lineman in the history of the sport.

Richard Sherman, Justin Houston, and Von Miller were also drafted this year.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Richard Sherman (DB, Stanford), 154th overall

Sherman has become the most dominant cornerback in the National Football League, but third-round pick Justin Houston (70th) is one of the greatest pass rushers in the league. Andy Dalton (35), Randall Cobb (64), and DeMarco Murray (71) are also early success stories from beyond the first round.

Worst Draft Pick — Jacksonville Jaguars — Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri), 8th overall

At no point in Gabbert's pro career has he looked like an NFL-level quarterback. The Jaguars didn't give him much help, but Gabbert never adjusted to the pro game, and looked like he was guessing on every play. Gabbert failed to outplay Chad Henne, and the Jags gave up on him after only three seasons. Gabbert was a backup for the 49ers in 2014.

Imagine if... we could re-draft QBs.

The top of this draft was so strong, it's hard to re-think many picks, but Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder all went in the top 12 picks, while Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick lasted until the second round. Third-rounder Ryan Mallett also looks like a better investment than any of the top three.

* * *

Let's cut things off there. Trying to make accurate "hindsight" judgments about players who haven't even reached their primes yet strikes me as a waste of time. To conclude, I'll just list the leaders each year:

Best Offensive Player

2005: Aaron Rodgers (QB, California), 24th overall
2006: Nick Mangold (OL, Ohio State), 29th overall
2007: Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma), 7th overall
2008: Chris Johnson (RB, East Carolina), 24th overall
2009: LeSean McCoy (RB, Pitt), 53rd overall
2010: Rob Gronkowski (TE, Arizona), 42nd overall
2011: Cam Newton (QB, Auburn), 1st overall

This list includes 5 first-round picks, but only two in the top 10. I am continually amazed how many GMs think they have solved the eternal problem of identifying QBs who will succeed in the NFL. Alex Smith (2005), JaMarcus Russell (2007), Matt Stafford (2009), Sam Bradford (2010), and Newton were all drafted first overall, and Newton is the only one who has come close to justifying his draft position.

Even if we add Andrew Luck in 2012, gambling on a QB with the first pick is an incredibly risky proposition.

Best Defensive Player

2005: DeMarcus Ware (OLB, Troy), 11th overall
2006: Haloti Ngata (DL, Oregon), 12th overall
2007: Darrelle Revis (DB, Pitt), 14th overall
2008: Calais Campbell (DL, Miami), 50th overall
2009: Clay Matthews III (LB, USC), 26th overall
2010: Ndamukong Suh (DL, Nebraska), 2nd overall
2011: J.J. Watt (DL, Wisconsin), 11th overall

This list includes 6 first-round picks and a second-rounder. I mentioned above that I would hesitate to draft quarterbacks with my early selections. I'd probably choose a defensive player instead; they seem easier to sort out.

Best Non-First Round Pick

2005: Frank Gore (RB, Miami), 65th overall
2006: Jahri Evans (OL, Bloomsburg), 108th overall
2007: Eric Weddle (DB, Utah), 37th overall
2008: Carl Nicks (OL, Nebraska), 164th overall
2009: LeSean McCoy (RB, Pitt), 53rd overall
2010: Antonio Brown (WR, Central Michigan), 195th overall
2011: Richard Sherman (DB, Stanford), 154th overall

Evans and Nicks were the starting guards for the New Orleans Saints for most of the past decade. Undrafted free agents were ineligible for this list.

Worst Draft Pick

2005: Minnesota Vikings — Troy Williamson (7th) and Erasmus James (18th)
2006: St. Louis Rams — Tye Hill (DB, Clemson), 15th
2007: Oakland Raiders — JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU), 1st
2008: New York Jets — Vernon Gholston (DL, Ohio State), 6th
2009: St. Louis Rams — Jason Smith (OL, Baylor), 2nd
2010: Baltimore Ravens — Sergio Kindle (LB, Texas), 43rd
2011: Jacksonville Jaguars — Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri), 8th

The Rams' poor draft choices set them up to have high draft picks over and over again. They seem to have gotten the hang of things under current GM Les Snead.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:26 PM | Comments (0)

April 13, 2015

A Smart Move?

Texas introduced Shaka Smart as its next head coach earlier this month, luring the highly regarded former VCU coach from his perch atop college basketball mid-majordom. The move ended four years of speculation over where one of the game's brightest young minds would move next.

Smart's ascension to Texas makes sense in many ways. The Longhorns, frustrated by 17 years of good-rarely-great from Rick Barnes, desperately needed a plausible upgrade over their previous coach. And while Smart guided the Rams to the Final Four in his second year in Richmond, VCU's lower profile would always produce limitations in recruiting and influence, not to mention how much it could pay its head coach.

Like Brad Stevens at Butler before him, Smart's destiny somewhere bigger and better was always viewed as a question of timing, not outcome. The NBA and NCAA blue bloods can only call so many times before a coach moves on.

Even in the best case scenarios, like those VCU and Butler enjoyed, the crash of offseason coaching waves is relentless. While the Rams and Bulldogs were able to pay their budding star coaches enough to fight off second tier opportunities (VCU extended Smart at $1.2 million per year from his original $300,000 annual salary prior to the 2011 Final Four run), those raises are still orders of magnitude less than the $3+ million the Celtics pay Stevens or the $2.65 million base salary Barnes made in his last year in Austin.

But money aside, the lure of basketball's biggest stages is most tempting in the darkness of season-ending frustration. In the four seasons after the Final Four run that announced his potential, Smart's teams lost in the first weekend of the tournament. Three of those losses came to Big Ten teams, and while Michigan would advance to the National Championship game in 2013, 2015 Ohio State and 2012 Indiana were beaten by double digits in the following round. These weren't transcendent teams.

For a young, talented coach who had tasted the Final Four, this impasse must have frustrated Smart.

This season's ending had to be especially illustrative of VCU's limitations. The Rams lost in overtime to a forgettable Buckeye squad composed of bit players and one-year-star D'Angelo Russell, the kind of marquee player Smart would almost certainly never draw to Richmond. As one-and-dones increasingly dominate the sport's top teams, Smart must have felt resigned to annual also-ran status with the Rams.

And yet, while a migration from VCU to Texas might seem obvious in college basketball's big picture, this move is not without risk. Smart is not inheriting a reclamation project like many other promising young coaches or even Stevens did in Boston. While Barnes seemingly underachieved given the level of talent he attracted, his teams reached the tournament in all but one of his 17 seasons. By bringing on Smart, the Longhorns are gambling that given the resources of a premier athletic program, the young coach can improve upon his results at VCU.

Every spring, big conference programs try to tap the tournament success of coaches who won under the sport's brightest spotlight. Often, rewarding a few fluky weeks in March yields a few disappointing years, and the program finds itself searching anew while the coach finds himself several rungs back down the coaching ladder. Neither is better off.

This is where Stevens and Smart's paths differ greatly. When he took the Celtics' job, Stevens inherited a depleted roster and an organization clearly committed to a long rebuild. His unusually length contract acknowledges as much. If Stevens fails in Boston, he could easily transition back to a relatively big college job. After all, NBA failure didn't end the careers of John Calipari or Rick Pitino.

Smart, on the other hand, has much more at stake in Austin. Barnes' firing makes the expectations clear, and the program appears ready for success. If Smart can't do more with the program than Barnes did with Kevin Durant and many other lottery picks, his star will be greatly tarnished.

But this is the nature of the business. The top of every business is competitive, and college basketball is especially so. The success that leads coaches up the ladder buoys their confidence and appetite for bigger challenges. For every Mark Few determined to max out a second-tier program, there are dozens of others hungry for a crack at the biggest programs.

Smart, of course, projects better than the occupants of the coaching graveyard who leapt to programs where they couldn't sustain their success. VCU ascended to consistent success, and Smart's "havoc" style suggests a repeatable blueprint.

In a few years, Smart's Texas may resemble Thad Matta's Ohio State or Sean Miller's Arizona, elite programs where mid-major coaches have entrenched themselves on the national scene. That's the positive outcome.

The negative? Smart cannot advance the Longhorns that last step and eventually Texas finds itself looking for the next option.

College coaches work years to build up the chips to get one shot at an elite job. Having passed on other opportunities, Smart has wisely waited to leave VCU until a well-setup chance came available.

Now all he has to do is win.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 10:53 AM | Comments (0)

April 10, 2015

NBA Week in Review

* Look For the Trifecta, as Well as the "Defect-A" — The NBA will hold a four-day development camp and host clinics for youth in Cuba from April 23-26. There are only two requirements for prospective attendees: must be able to play baseball, and not get seasick.

* "Shaun of the Head" — Golden State Warriors guard Shaun Livingston was suspended one game without pay for hitting Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki in the groin. Livingston's punishment equates to roughly one "hand check."

* They Hope to Make a "Splash" in the Playoffs — The Golden State Warriors clinched the NBA's best season record and locked up home-court advantage through the NBA Finals should they advance that far. Their next "clinch" occurs to the Warriors' sphincters, when the Spurs pay a playoff visit.

* "F" is For "Farewell" — John Calipari said five to seven Kentucky underclassman could declare for the NBA draft. Those who elect to remain at UK are expected to say to the league "F the NBA."

* Noah-it-All — Joakim Noak said the Chicago Bulls can beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in a seven-game series, despite their 99-94 loss to the Cavs on Sunday. Just to play devil's advocate, LeBron James said the Cavs would easily have the advantage in a four-game series.

* Momma Said "Knock You Out" — Phoenix police say Suns forwards Marcus and Markieff Morris were part of a five-person group that committed felony aggravated assault against a man they believed to be sending "inappropriate" text messages to their mother. That same five-person group was also part of the starting "lineup" at the Phoenix police station.

* "Tanks" For the Memories, or Blow Time — The Los Angeles Lakers lost their 56th game on Sunday, setting a franchise record for losses in a season. Asked to confirm whether he thought the team was the worst in Lakers' history, Bryant refused to "testify."

* He's Finger-Wagging Good, Y'all — Dikembe Mutombo headlined the 2015 class to be inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. His bust will be called a "block head."

* Rubi-Ole — Minnesota Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio will wait until the end of the regular season to announce whether he will play for Spain in the European championships. It's a "Decision" that may send a Timberwolve to Europe, but not to Cleveland.

* This Week's NBA Finals Prediction — This is based on Jeffrey Boswell's NBA's "S.W.I.S.H." rankings (Statistical Weighted Index Summation Hierarchy), which takes into account hard data and soft tacos to determine the two teams most likely to meet in the NBA Finals.

Cleveland Over San Antonio in 7.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:46 PM | Comments (0)

April 9, 2015

Play on or Stay Home?

There are three "seasons" to any professional sports calendar. The offseason is where teams make moves, bringing in talent, shifting personnel around, and dispatching the dispensable. The regular season is the grind. To make it through intact/healthy is an unlikelihood, and to put yourself in a highly-touted position is paramount. The ultimate goal is the postseason, a land of renewed energy where you’ve got the opportunity to call yourselves champions.

For some, the transition from one portion to the next appears seamless. Those franchises deal with the expectations of making deep playoff runs quite expertly. For others, the completion of this process isn’t quite attainable. But are there situations where making it to all three sections of the calendar is actually harmful for the overall progress of the team? Now, as I’ve recently written, I don’t think tanking is the way to go. However, I do think that some could benefit from a reset button.

Five spots have been claimed in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The final three places will be decided during this final seven-day stretch. Each of those could go to a squad without a winning record. But, of the six teams fighting for those three slots, which ones could really use that extra seasoning?

Postseason = A Good Thing

As with any trend in sports, the following teams would be best served by making the playoffs. We’ll start with the most likely candidate (heading into Thursday night). Milwaukee has had quite the roller coaster ride over their NBA history. The Bucks have a championship trophy in their distant past. As recently as 2000-2001, this organization made a push to the Eastern Conference Finals. But there have been some hard times as well.

The past couple of years have been "meh" at best. Yes, there have been a couple of playoff appearances (2010 & 2013). However, they have only finished with winning records in two of the past 11 seasons (which could stretch to 2-in-12 without a flourish over the next week). With three rookies (including the injured Jabari Parker) and only one player north of 30 (31-year old Zaza Pachulia), there are still many growing pains to go through. But, considering that there’s a new coach AND ownership group, any kind of postseason experience would be a "cherry on top" for a squad that’s ahead of the rebuilding schedule.

Another team in that "ahead of schedule" mode is the Boston Celtics. There haven’t been many of these cycles for one of the Association’s cornerstone franchises. This is one of the consequences of the "Win now!" philosophy that developed with the nucleus of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen. That window closed, sending the roster into re-build mode. After even more changes (trading Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green around the trade deadline), the nucleus currently consists of Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Evan Turner, and Brandon Bass.

Does Boston have that superstar player they’ve historically relied on to lead those championship squads? No. But, unless they trade up well into the lottery, they aren’t really in a position to find that star in June. It would be a better use of their time to get the youngsters some postseason minutes to get a feel for their expected future. And, hey, with so many draft picks in the Celtics’ hands, they may get the best of both scenarios.

While Milwaukee and Boston have playoff position going into the second part of the week, one team trying to return to that lofty perch is Indiana. The fact that the Pacers are in this position is both admirable and disappointing. After missing the vast majority of the regular season with a broken leg, Paul George has returned to the court just in time for a last-second push. However, after the last three postseasons (all ended by Miami), this year had to appear to be a letdown from the opening tip.

Even though this roster in constructed of playoff veterans, only four of these Pacers 30 years of age or older. This is still a young squad, and getting some more postseason minutes couldn’t hurt.

Postseason = Not So Good

Just as there’s a trend for those that should benefit from reaching the postseason, a trend could also be apparent for the squads that probably won’t. The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the hottest teams in the Association, winning 11 out of their last 15. They’ve reorganized the lineup (bringing in Thaddeus Young) and have dynamic players at every position on the floor. However, I believe that coach Lionel Hollins may want to remake his roster even more. What do you think he could do with a Willie Cauley-Stein in the Nets’ front-court?

The season’s biggest turnover occurred on South Beach. The Miami Heat were present in the last four NBA Finals. After LeBron James’ departure, though, the organization had to retool. Adding free agent Luol Deng eased some minds in South Florida. Getting Goran Dragic at the trade deadline provided a boost of energy. But that was also tempered by Chris Bosh missing the rest of the season due to health concerns. Bosh is 31. Dwyane Wade is a well-traveled 33. This could be a good time for Pat Riley to invest in some young pieces for this veteran roster. Plus, how many more miles do you want to put on Wade’s tires before getting him the rest he hasn’t had in five years?

In the first half of the season, I thought that the Charlotte Hornets were on the list of the most disappointing teams in the Association. Not much changed in the proceeding months. I do understand that Kemba Walker missed 20 of 22 contests from mid-January to early March. This team had a lot going for it, though. There’s a nice mix of youthful and veteran talent. They’ve got a formidable inside-outside combination. Plus, they just made the postseason a year ago. But it appears that the addition of Lance Stephenson just hasn’t worked as planned. This organization may need another season to find out if the on-court pieces can gel. However, the front office might need the Summer to reshuffle the deck altogether.

There’s one week left until the field is trimmed from 30 to 16. Every team wants to manage their way into all three phases of their annual calendars. For some, though, two out of three might actually do some good down the road.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 5:33 PM | Comments (0)

Joe West Has Game, Unfortunately

God knows (as does His servant Casey Stengel) that I had better things to write about on the day after Opening Days. Things like Nationals' shortstop Ian Desmond calling second baseman Dan Uggla (yes, Virginia, that Dan Uggla) off a by-the-book popup, dropping the ball, allowing the Mets first and second, leading to Lucas Duda busting up Max Scherzer's no-hit bid with the two run single that made the difference in the Mets' win.

Things like Jon Lester, the Cubs' nine-figure new ace, continuing his own Opening Day tradition — with a loss. (He didn't get out of the fifth and hung the loss squarely on himself.) Things like Sonny Gray, the Athletics' boy wonder, taking an Opening Day no-hitter into the eighth inning. Things like Jimmy Rollins, erstwhile Phillies shortstop/pest, introducing himself to his new fans in Los Angeles with a 3-run homer to help Clayton Kershaw and company beat the Padres.

Things like Felix Hernandez beating the Angels with his third Opening Day of at least 10 strikeouts lifetime, moving him into the company of Bob Gibson, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez — despite surrendering a first-inning bomb to a nobody named Mike Trout. Things like everyone on earth laughing over Kyle Kendrick being the Rockies' Opening Day starter — and Kendrick pitching seven shutout innings en route the Rockies' 10-0 win over the Brewers.

Things like a record 115 players beginning a new season on the disabled list, and with Matt Cain — the Giants' erstwhile ace, who became erstwhile in the first place because of injuries — likely to be one of them, thanks to a tendon strain. Things like the Angels and baseball government alike fuming over Josh Hamilton's non-suspension for confessing over the winter to a relapse in his ongoing battle against substance addiction, and whether Angels president Josh Carpino ought to be investigated for leaking the original relapse news in the first place.

And, things like the Padres hogging the headlines on Opening Day I by bagging Craig Kimbrel, arguably baseball's best closer since The Mariano's retirement, in a deal in which they were only too willing to take on the contract of the artist formerly known as B.J. Upton (he now goes by Melvin Upton, Jr.) to get Kimbrel in a deal that may actually prove to be better for the Braves, who are rebuilding otherwise.

But no. Torii Hunter, the prodigal Twin, hitting with two on and two out and down 4-0 against the Tigers, has to object to a game-ending called strike on a checked swing no few replays show to have been a checked swing on a pitch that was about as close to being a strike otherwise as Islamic State is to becoming a model of tolerance.

It's not that there's anything terrible about objecting to such a call. It's that the call came from Joe West, umpiring behind the plate, which some think is rather like having Clyde Barrow as police commissioner. It ended an at-bat in which Hunter might, conceivably, have kept a rally going against Joe Nathan, the Tigers' (and, once upon a time, the Twins') closer, about whom it is safe to say that he's made a career out of closing games the hard way. We have another 161 games to go in a pleasurably long baseball season, and the last thing we needed was West becoming the focus on Opening Day II.

West is not and has never been an umpire for whom modesty is a virtue. Apparently, consultation with his crew on borderline calls, which is the usual practise on such borderline pitches, in such situations especially, is also a vice. Considering West's track record, there's an argument to make that Hunter should consider himself lucky West merely turned and walked off the field after ringing up the strikeout.

Hunter barked a little bit at West as the umpire strolled off the field but nothing serious, apparently, because Hunter might have been saving his choicest critique for the postgame interviews during which the veteran outfielder unhorsed a couple of beauties:

"[H]e gave me no explanation. I think he had a dinner reservation or a concert to play in. But that was terrible. All I ask, all everybody asks, [is]to do your job as well. And Joe West needs to do his job. And he didn't do it well.

"All you have to do is check. I'm battling my butt off against the best closer of our time. Just trying to get something going and he just took the bat right out of our hands. In that situation, I don't know why he did it. I hate that he did it. I don't know why he didn't check. He just walked off, so obviously he knew he was wrong."

I leave it to you, kind reader, to decide which was Hunter's better blast, speculating on West's postgame dinner plans or alluding to West's well known if musically dubious sideline as a country music singer.

But I also note that, unless baseball government is feeling very charitable because there are 161 games to go in a pleasantly long baseball season, Hunter is likely to face a little lightening in his bank account for his schpritz. It's still against baseball's rules for mere players, coaches, or managers, and possibly owners, even, to criticize umpires. Even when the umpire in question is dead wrong.

It still stinks. Not just because Hunter didn't go anywhere near so far as went Cliff Mapes (reserve Yankee outfielder) in 1949. (After an extremely close play at the plate — Red Sox shortstop Johnny Pesky beat a tag to score; Yankee catcher Ralph Houk went nuclear — Mapes hollered at ump Bill Grieve, who was actually doing his best not to throw players out of that crucial a game, "How much did you bet on the game, you son of a bitch?c) Not just because we always know when and how heavily a player is disciplined for criticizing an umpire but rarely know when and how heavily an umpire might be for his behavior during a field confrontation.

A common citizen — student, laborer, middle manager, upper manager, or chief executive officer alike — can't be disciplined officially for criticizing the possible strategic mischief in even the least dictum within a Supreme Court opinion. He or she can't face official or legal discipline for declaring a sitting President to be something less than all wise, all knowing, or all natural, wish (and try) though several Presidents (and no few lower-level government heads) regardless of party affiliation have in the past and present.

Come to think of it, as often as not you're even allowed to tell your own boss, if the occasion arises and you really think you're right and he or she is wrong, that he or she is wrong, and why you think so. You can do so even in terms as suggestive as Torii Hunter's vis Joe West. So long as you don't punch up your rhetoric with any, most, or all of the seven words you used to be unable to say on television, you're safe. (Unless, of course, you become a habitual critic. Even the most tolerant boss won't tolerate that habit.)

If you can tell a Supreme Court justice, a president, a Congressman, a senator, a governor, a county executive, a mayor, a chief of police, or even your own boss how far up their rear ends their heads might be found (I speak figuratively there, though with many it's far enough that they could give you the play by play of their own in-progress root canal work), why on earth can't a baseball player, coach, manager, or even owner say aloud, without fear of formal punishment, that a particular umpire blew it, whether merely saying "he blew it” or adopting Hunter's descriptive deftness?

One criticism leveled often enough at the Supreme Court, a sitting President, assorted lower government leaders, and major league baseball umpires, is that they think they're laws unto themselves, and behave accordingly. Some of those who think umpires are laws unto themselves are thought to be umpires.

West is thought often enough to be one of those. Customarily, he's seen that way, seemingly, by people who enunciate such thoughts when not enunciating the thought that he behaves in such ways as to suggest he doesn't reject the idea that fans pay their hard earned money to go to the ballpark to see him at work.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

April 7, 2015

Pro Sports' Biggest Disappointments

For 38 games, the University of Kentucky men's basketball team was one of the most dominant squads we had ever seen. After a 31-0 regular season, a walk through the SEC tournament, and a trio of easy wins through the Sweet 16, the Wildcats finally showed mortality, and lost to Wisconsin in the Final Four.

It's one of the most disappointing losses in the history of college basketball: a truly great team that picked the wrong time to go cold. Who are other great teams that failed to win a championship? We'll look for the equivalent of the 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats in the NFL, NBA, and MLB — the best teams that didn't quite win it all.

NFL

I've written about this before, but here, we'll just do a brief summary of the top three teams.

3. 1983 Washington (14-2, lost Super Bowl XVIII)

The defending champions of Super Bowl XVII went 14-2, both of their losses coming by a single point. Joe Theismann was named NFL MVP, John Riggins set an NFL record for touchdowns in a season, and Washington became the first team ever to top 500 points in a season. The defense led the league in rushing defense and interceptions. Washington won its first playoff game 51-7, then defeated Joe Montana's 49ers in the NFC Championship. In the Super Bowl, however, Washington got blown out by a Raiders team it had defeated earlier in the season.

2. 1968 Baltimore Colts (13-1, lost Super Bowl III)

If the Colts had won Super Bowl III, they would probably be considered one of the two or three best teams in the history of professional football. Baltimore outscored its opponents 402-144, giving it an average margin of victory (18.4), second-best of any team in the Super Bowl era. The Colts won the NFL Championship Game over Cleveland — the one team that had beaten them — with a 34-0 rout that suggested the final step before a coronation in Super Bowl III. Baltimore entered that game as 20-point favorites, but fell to Joe Namath's New York Jets, 16-7.

1. 2007 New England Patriots (16-0, lost Super Bowl XLII)

This is the best football team I've ever seen. Not only did they win every game, they won blowouts. For the first half of the '07 season, the Patriots weren't even on the same level as their opponents, like NFL against college teams. Still, there's an argument to flip this with the '68 Colts. Baltimore's loss in the Super Bowl was more disappointing, more shocking, because the NFL had dominated the first two Super Bowls, and the Colts were seen as a much stronger team than the 1966-67 Packers, maybe even the best team in football history. Their loss to an AFL team was among the biggest upsets in football history.

NBA

The NBA, with its long season and quality of talent, doesn't lend itself to the same dominance as the college game, but it's certainly seen its share of disappointments from teams that seemed poised for a championship.

3. 1996-97 Utah Jazz (64-18, lost NBA Finals, 4-2)

The late '90s Jazz wish Michael Jordan had stayed retired. Runners-up in both 1997 and '98, the Jazz were a great team, but one that matched up poorly against the Bulls. They were built around point guard John Stockton and forward Karl Malone, two of the greatest players in history. Malone averaged 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists, winning his first NBA MVP Award. The Jazz won the Western Conference by seven games and coasted through the playoffs, going 12-3 on their way to the Finals. Two of their four losses in the Finals came by a single basket, with another by 4 points. The Jazz weren't anything like as dominant as Kentucky, but their disappointment was no less, and this year stands for all their failures to win a championship with Stockton and Malone.

2. 1981-82 Boston Celtics (63-19, lost Eastern Conference Finals, 4-3)

Larry Bird joined the Celtics in the 1979-80 season, and they won their first title in '81. But this was Bird's first truly great team. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA, five games better than anyone else, their best record in nearly a decade. They were the defending champions, they had dominated the regular season, and they had every reason for confidence heading into the playoffs. Like this year's Wildcats, they didn't even make it to the Finals, dropping a seven-game series in which they outscored the victorious 76ers by a total of 33 points, but lost too many close games.

1. 1972-73 Boston Celtics (68-14, lost Eastern Conference Finals, 4-3)

At the time, this was the third-best record in NBA history. The Celtics won the East by 11 games, and they were eight games better than anyone in the West. John Havlicek was an established star, and young center Dave Cowens won MVP honors, averaging 20.5 points and 16.2 rebounds. Following 12 years of Eastern Conference dominance, the West had won the last two Finals, and it seemed like the East's year to return to glory. Sure enough, it was, as the New York Knicks coasted to a 4-1 Finals win over the Lakers. The Celtics won the Finals the following season, but this was their best team of the '70s.

MLB

Perhaps no sport has a more famous history of great teams falling short than baseball. It's a challenge to narrow the list, but here are three teams that broke the hearts of their hopeful fans.

3. 2001 Seattle Mariners (116-46, lost ALCS, 4-1)

They won the most regular-season games in MLB history. Everything seemed to fall into place, like a season of destiny. Seattle hosted the all-star game — including eight Mariners, four of them starters — and the AL won, with Ichiro Suzuki getting the AL's first hit, Freddy Garcia getting the win, and Kazuhiro Sasaki earning the save. Ichiro won AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP. It was a storybook regular season. But the Mariners, who have never reached the World Series, lost to the Yankees in the playoffs.

2. 1946 Boston Red Sox (104-50, lost World Series, 4-3)

Two and a half decades into the Curse of the Bambino, this looked like the team to break it. The war was over, and Ted Williams returned to win his first AL MVP Award. The Red Sox smashed team attendance records and won their first pennant since 1918, finishing 12 games ahead of the Tigers and 17 games in front of the hated Yankees. In this atmosphere of optimism and excitement, the World Series saw the Sox alternate wins with the NL Champion Cardinals, setting up a decisive Game 7. With two outs in the eighth inning and the score 3-3, the Cardinals' Harry Walker hit into left-center field, and Enos Slaughter made his "Mad Dash" from first base to score the winning run.

1. 1906 Chicago Cubs (116-36, lost World Series, 4-2)

Still considered one of the greatest teams of all time, the 1906 Cubs won the most games in National League history, and their .763 winning percentage is the highest in modern MLB history. They won the pennant by 20 games. The Cubs were an especially brilliant defensive team, with the Hall of Fame double-play connection of Tinker to Evers to Chance, and a pitching staff led by the legendary Three Finger Brown, who had his greatest season, with a 1.04 ERA that is still the NL record. In one of the biggest upsets in World Series history, the Cubs lost to their crosstown rivals, the White Sox, in only six games.

This year's Kentucky Wildcats were a great team, and their fans are understandably heartbroken about the NCAA tournament results. But they're far from the only great team to fall short of a championship — even the best professional teams can't always sustain success for a whole season. Going undefeated has never been easy.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:05 AM | Comments (0)

April 6, 2015

Flipping the Script: Wisconsin's Historic Offense

All throughout this college basketball season, and especially as the games went by with Kentucky having an unblemished record, thousands upon thousands of words were written about its potential legacy should the Wildcats complete a 40-0 season.

Among all those column inches written, a rough consensus seemed to emerge: 2014-15 Kentucky probably wasn't the greatest college basketball team ever.

Heck, they might have only been the third-best Kentucky team in the last 20 years, behind the 1996 and 2012 juggernauts. But the same consensus also told us that this version of the Wildcats was quite likely the best defensive club in the history of college basketball.

Their starting lineup defied logic with its height, but was also the nation's most athletic. A team with that much size made it seem impossible for a team to have an above-average offensive outing against the Wildcats.

After Wisconsin's thrilling 71-64 win to end Kentucky's unbeaten season, it might be time to flip the script on our assumptions. What if Wisconsin is one of the greatest offenses we've seen in modern college basketball?

The thing that struck me the most about Wisconsin's National Semifinal performance, even more than the incredible stats it put up, is just how unintimidated the Badgers were by Kentucky in running their offense. In watching a number of Kentucky games against inferior competition, it was clear that teams were taken back by the type of size and amount of floor covered that you just don't see on a basketball court, be it college or pro.

Even the teams that talked a big game (looking at you, Daxter Miles Jr.) and claimed they weren't scared were no match for Kentucky. Wisconsin took the proactive approach that they were going to play their brand of basketball, and let Kentucky react to it. The result was Wisconsin putting up 1.22 points per possession on Kentucky's defense, an elite output for a national semifinal, not to mention one against the "greatest defense ever."

Furthermore, Wisconsin shot over 50 percent on its twos and over 40 percent on its threes. That had only even come close to happening a couple times in Kentucky's season. Most teams this season did well to even hit a 40 percent effective field goal percentage against the Wildcats. Wisconsin had an eFG of 55 percent.

In sports, our perceptions of teams are influenced by their past reputations and styles. Many times, these perceptions are completely correct. Oregon football still runs a hyper-speed, up-tempo offense. The New England Patriots still don't overpay players, and trade draft picks all the time.

But other times, those past perceptions color what we see in front of our eyes. This is why the English-speaking sports media can use stereotypical words like "ruthless efficiency" to describe the German national soccer team a decade after they changed their style to a more free-flowing game, or why for a couple seasons after the San Antonio Spurs changed their philosophy, they were still deemed plodding and boring. This category applies to Wisconsin.

Starting with former head coach Dick Bennett, the Badgers gained a reputation as a methodical, defensive-minded, half-court offense team, which continued through the beginning of the Bo Ryan era. Unlike the post-2010 Spurs, Wisconsin still plays one of the slowest tempos in its sport.

In the past couple years, however, with the offensive superiority of players like Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, Wisconsin has been an amazingly elite offense. This season, the Badgers have put up the highest offensive efficiency in the history of the KenPom database (going back to 2002) by averaging 1.285 points per possession.

For college basketball, it's tougher to do historical, analytical-based comparisons, because all the data required to do fair, tempo-free statistics on a nationwide scale just isn't there before the early 2000s. In the NBA, since we have that necessary data going back 35-plus seasons, we can determine that Golden State being on the verge of having the best offensive and defensive efficiencies in one season for 2014-15 puts them up there with some historic teams.

For Wisconsin, we don't know how they would stack up against the great teams from the '60s through '90s with analytics, but we can say that their offensive output is all the more impressive when we consider that this is a more defensive era of college basketball than even 10 years ago.

You'll notice that I haven't given Wisconsin's defense a mention yet for what it did against Kentucky, and that's probably unfair. It wasn't a lockdown performance by any means, but it was one where the Badgers did just enough to win, including preventing Aaron Harrison's usual late-game heroics, and despite 17 points on 7-11 shooting, preventing Karl-Anthony Towns from completely dominating the game as he could have.

A couple overlooked aspects of Wisconsin's win were the Badgers' excellent rebounding on the defensive and offensive glass, and Traevon Jackson's unsung play in his third game back from injury. Wisconsin grabbing almost 80 percent of Kentucky's misses was not abnormal on the balance of the season, but against Kentucky's size and usual second-chance ability, it was crucial. Even more amazing was the Badgers grabbing more than 40 percent of their own misses, well above their season or Big Ten averages.

As for Jackson, he didn't score a lot, and only played 12 minutes, but he made some great smart plays and passes. His four points in the middle of the second half came at a time when Kentucky was making its run after Wisconsin's eight-point lead.

For tonight's title game, while an undefeated season won't be on the line, it should still be a heavyweight battle between two teams that have been excellent all year. While Duke's somewhat-maligned defense has been exceptional in the tournament, Wisconsin should prevail if it plays anything like it did on Saturday night.

After all, the Badgers have put together one of the great offensive seasons in modern college basketball history.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 4:31 PM | Comments (0)

April 2, 2015

Novak Djokovic and Being Third

The crowd's disappointment could be heard from miles away. Roger Federer had just double-faulted on break point at 2-3 down in the third set against Novak Djokovic in the men's finals of the Indian Wells Masters 1000 tournament. Djokovic led 4-2, and during the next 10 minutes, if it lasted that long, he rolled through two relatively quick games to triumph over his rival 6-3, 6-7, 6-2, and won the prestigious "Fifth Major" of the year, as some like to call the tournament in the desert. It was one of the quietest two-game stretches at any final match of a tournament.

This is the kind of crowd response that Djokovic, one of the great champions of the modern era, has to face every time he takes the court against his two main rivals, Federer and Rafael Nadal. Who can forget the bitter clapping gesture that he made to the crowd at Philippe Chatrier when he lost the final match of Roland Garros against Nadal on a double fault last year? He dealt with a pro-Nadal crowd at that match, too. He has a unique challenge, one with which no other great player in the modern times had to deal. He has been, is, and will remain to be, the "third best" of his times. The "has been" and "is" portions are guaranteed as he lacks titles and accolades to surpass either of them in the perennial "Greatest Player of All-Time" debate. The "will be" part is still up for debate.

However, the thirdness of Djokovic has nothing to do with the on-court accomplishments. It stems from the timing of his arrival to the scene, and the saturated market of fan base. He is the tennis world version of that third cola company that is desperately trying to garner customers who will embrace its brand over those of the long-existing and beloved PepsiCo and Coca-Cola companies.

It is the price that Djokovic has to pay every time he sets foot on a tennis court across the net from Nadal and Federer. The Spaniard and the Swiss are class acts, but so is the Serb. Anyone who follows the tour closely, media members, and other players, can attest to the fact that Djokovic treats everyone, including tennis fans, with the utmost respect, no more or no less than the two other great champions of his time.

However, Djokovic arrived to the top of the game at a time (late 2000s) when most tennis fans, if not all, have made their choices between Federer and Nadalk. There was no room for a Serbian player with a rather vociferous team in the player's box rooting for him. Everyone knows how harshly and subjectively die-hard Federer fans scrutinize every word that comes out of Nadal's mouth, or every injury that he gets. The reverse is equally done with ardor by Nadal fanatics whenever Federer loses a match or makes a "twistable" comment. Now imagine both groups of fans combined to apply the same scrutiny on one single player. Djokovic is that player.

Why Djokovic? Because not only is he the outsider in their eyes, but he also does a pretty darn effective job of challenging their beloved players. He pushes them around quite efficiently on the court, and even frequently shakes their hands as the winner. Furthermore, one could rightfully make the case that Djokovic has been the best player in the decade of 2010s so far. The numbers say so, his ranking says so, and will continue to say so for the rest of 2015 due to the large lead that he holds over his opponents.

How dare he? The answer matters less that the fact that he does dare, and thus becomes the target of millions of fans who do not want to see the domination that their duo enjoyed in the mid-to-late-2000s comes to an end.

Unfortunately for them, it seems to have come to a crushing end ... at least on the court. Unfortunately for Djokovic, the chances of its end crystalizing in the imaginary "third" position of popularity will probably not arrive anytime soon.

The much more mature Djokovic of today understands that and deals with it accordingly. He praises his two main rivals and often talks about how much positive influence they had over him and his game. Never mind that if he were to put the racket down today and never pick it up again, he would still have a career comparable to, if not better than, the past great champions such as John McEnroe, Jimmy Connors, Mats Wilander, Ivan Lendl, Boris Becker, and Stefan Edberg.

Yet, Djokovic has no intention of doing that. He continues along his path and aims for the two players that are considered the top two greatest players of all times by many. His chances of catching them in terms of tennis accomplishments: slim! In terms of popularity: none! We can however speculate comfortably that he deals with a unique challenge, a singular place in history, with more courage and clarity than many other players would. And for that, he deserves respect.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 5:10 PM | Comments (2)

April 1, 2015

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 6

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished eighth at Martinsville, ending his streak of eight consecutive results of second or better. He remains atop the Sprint Cup points standings, 24 ahead of Joey Logano.

"It was a disappointing finish," Harvick said. "Not that eighth is bad, but I finished behind Danica Patrick. I guess my son Keelan's cries of 'Go, Daddy!' were heard by Danica and not me."

2. Joey Logano — Logano started on the pole at Martinsville and came home third, leading 108 laps in the STP 500. He is second in the points standings, 24 behind Kevin Harvick.

"That race had it all," Logano said. "Action, intrigue, fake cautions, you name it. Plus, there was controversy, because track management dumped Jesse Jones hot dogs for Valleydale. How could they? I've been called one, but this takes the term 'undeserving weiner' to a new level."

3. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski stalked Denny Hamlin over the final laps at Martinsville, but couldn't make the pass. Hamlin took the checkered while Keselowski settled for second.

"The No. 2 Miller Lite was fast," Keselowski said, "and I almost pulled it out. And that would have been nice. Had I won, you could have said the race itself, much like Kyle Larson, was 'Lite-headed.'"

4. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex led 23 laps and finished sixth at Martinsville, posting his sixth top 10 of the year. He is third in the points standings, 32 behind Kevin Harvick.

"Kyle Larson missed the race after fainting Saturday at an autograph session," Truex said. "Apparently, he signed 'out.' Don't ask me what his condition is, because I don't have the faintest. Somebody told me Fall Out Boy was signing autographs on Saturday. Turns out it was just Kyle Larson."

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt suffered a broken shifter early at Martinsville and was involved in a multi-car wreck on lap 228 that smashed the front end of the No. 88 Chevrolet. He eventually finished 36th, 47 laps behind.

"Obviously," Earnhardt said, "you can't do shift without a shifter. And if you can't change gears, a sorry finish becomes, well, 'automatic.'

"After a lengthy stint in the garage, the No. 88 returned to the track without a hood. That is, of course, bad news, but it comes with a silver lining. Trust me, when anything Earnhardt-related goes topless, I thank the lucky starts it's the car and not one of my fans."

6. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson, an eight-time winner at Martinsville, suffered numerous issues at Martinsville on his way to a 35th-place finish.

"My day at Martinsville had a lot in common with Chad Knaus' history with the NASCAR rule book," Johnson said. "There were 'multiple issues.'

"I've won eight times at Martinsville. Normally, when I race there, I say "Hot dog.' Not on Sunday. I spent so much time with the hood up, there was no 'hot dog,' just 'all the fixings.'"

7. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished 11th in the STP 500 as Hendrick teammate Jeff Gordon took ninth, while Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. struggled mightily. Kahne is now fifth in the points standings, 70 out of first.

"Rick Hendrick had two cars in the top 11," Kahne said, "and two cars finish 35th or worse. So you can understand why Martinsville's half-mile left him with a 'half-smile.'"

8. Jeff Gordon — Gordon let a potential win slip away at Martinsville after a pit road speeding penalty cost him the lead with about 40 laps to go. Forced to the end of the lead lap, Gordon passed enough cars to salvage a ninth.

"It's never pleasant when you hear the words, 'You've made a terrible mistake,'" Gordon said. "But I'd rather hear it from my crew chief than my divorce lawyer."

9. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin overcame an early penalty in the pits and held off Brad Keselowski to win the STP 500. Hamlin led the final 28 laps and is now eighth in the points standings, 91 behind Kevin Harvick.

"We had a tire get away from us on pit road," Hamlin said. "The same thing happened at California. We have a fast car, but instead of burning rubber, we keep getting burned by rubber.

"But, I bounced back and kept Keselowski at bay, winning my fifth grandfather clock. He gave me a little nudge in the final turn. Had I wrecked, you can best believe, with a clock in mind, you would have seen 'one hand on the 2.'"

10. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led 11 laps and finished fourth on a strong day for Joe Gibbs Racing. Denny Hamlin won the STP 500, while David Ragan took fifth.

"Denny ended a 31-race winless streak for Joe Gibbs Racing," Kenseth said. "What better place than Martinsville to end that streak. I think Denny said it best after being awarded the grandfather clock when he said, 'It's about time.' To all of those who thought JGR was slipping, that's just 'Gibb-erish.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:20 PM | Comments (0)