Heading into this MLK Day, most of the NBA teams have reached (or pushed past) the halfway point of the season. The first two and a-half months offered up some interesting results. Some were expected (i.e. the Western Conference is stronger than its Eastern counterpart). Some ... not so much (i.e., the Atlanta Hawks currently own the best record in the Eastern Conference).
Around 1,230 contests have been decided, meaning we've got 1,230 more to witness before the playoffs come back around. So, why not look ahead and figure out how everything shakes out before, well, it shakes out. To start, I don't see any reason why the best team over the first half of the season won't stay at the top come season's end. Golden State leads the Pacific Division with the NBA's best scoring offense and the league's best point differential (nearly 5 ppg clear of East-leading Atlanta). I don't see the Clippers catching the Warriors, let alone anyone else in that Left Coast group. But what about the other divisions around the Association?
Toronto's Atlantic Division Lead is Safe
Last season, the Raptors were the surprise of the NBA. Possessing a five-year postseason drought, no one was expecting the Canadian franchise to challenge the veteran-laden Nets or Knicks for division bragging rights, let alone beat them outright. The fact that Toronto could shimmy their way right to the top showed many that the Atlantic was the weakest division in the Association.
A couple of weeks into 2015, the Raptor co-own the honor of having the league's largest division lead (10 games). The rest of the Atlantic ... that hasn't really changed much. Brooklyn is a year older, lost one of their veteran cogs (Paul Pierce) in the offseason, and could reportedly be on the market. The Knicks and Celtics have gone into full "rebuild" mode. New York might trade everyone not named Carmelo. Boston parlayed Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green in even more draft picks and future cap space. The Sixers ... let's just not go there.
So, unless a rash of injuries befall the nucleus of his team, Dwayne Casey can probably start to focus on postseason positioning once it gets past Valentine's Day.
Portland's Northwest Division Lead Isn't Safe
Along with Toronto, the Trailblazers were 10 up on second place entering Tuesday's slate of contests. But, to be fair, they had a bit of a head start. Don't get me wrong. I'm very impressed with them. Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge are studs, if not stars. However, when Kevin Durant misses the first 17 games of a season, that'll leave a mark. When Russell Westbrook misses 14 of the first 16 games of a season, that'll leave a mark. That's what Oklahoma City had to wade through during the vast majority of November.
The Thunder ended up with a 4-12 record before Westbrook's return on November 28th. In that same timeframe, the Blazers jumped out to a 12-3 record, putting them 7.5 games ahead of the perennial division power. OKC has forged their way back to even at 20-20 (despite Durant missing an additional six games in late December). If you follow basketball, you understand that a healthy Thunder squad battle's for the top seed in the West. Scott Brooks' squad appears to be getting whole as the second half goes into motion.
The teams won't meet again for more than a month. If, at that point, the Thunder chop the deficit under five games, a February 27th showdown could be a pivot point for the rest of the campaign.
Washington Will Win the Southeast Division
I think the Atlanta Hawks are for real. I believe that the system Mike Budenholzer has implemented will keep them near the front of the division title and conference top seed races. For some reason, though, I'm still a bigger fan of how the Wizards are constructed. Their stout backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal is the best in the division. The front-court added some depth after picking up DeJuan Blair. And Paul Pierce is filling the role of "savvy veteran" quite nicely.
I believe there's one obstacle between them and the franchise's first division crown since 1978-1979 ... winning away from home. Along with their current 13-game winning streak, the Hawks own the best road record in the NBA (17-5). The Wizards are just OK outside of the Beltway (11-8). You would have to expect a cool-down from Atlanta, and if Randy Wittman's squad can raise that road win percentage to 65% or better, that should be enough to break this long-standing drought.
Cleveland Will Be Closer to Milwaukee Than Chicago By Season's End
I know. This seems ludicrous. The latest iteration of "The Big Three" are having some issues gelling, but they'll turn it around by mid-April, right? Monday night's demolition of the Bulls shows how great this Cleveland crew can be. If you think back to the first season of the "Big 3" Heat, there was a feeling out period before LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh became a force that would land them in four consecutive NBA Finals (including that same 2010-2011 season). The stat that may have may helped that team out isn't really showing up for this year's Cavs.
The '10-'11 Heat were a good defensive squad, holding opponents to 94.6 ppg (6th-best in the league that season). The current rendition of the Cavs weren't supposed to shut people down ... and it shows. They're currently allowing 100.5 ppg (19th in the Association). In the world of team athletics, it's usually standard that no matter how many cold spells an offense goes through, a good defense can stall long enough to get the rhythm back. I'm not sure (even if and when Iman Shumpert gets healthy) that this time can defend well enough to keep pace with the front-running Bulls.
The Southwest Division Will Max Out Their Playoff Card
I've been definitive throughout this entire column, so I have to take a wild stance on this group as well. Since the Association expanded to 30 franchises and went to a six-division format (2004-2005), there has been one instance where all five division rivals made the postseason. In 2006, each of the Central Division teams qualified for the playoffs, with Milwaukee sneaking in as the eighth seed.
This season's Southwest Division is loaded. Memphis has hit a lull, but they still hold the third slot in the conference standings. Just one-half game back of the Grizzlies, you'll find both Dallas and Houston. The Spurs aren't certain that they'll continue their title defense yet. However, San Antonio is comfortable right now in the seventh slot. At the moment, Phoenix is four games ahead of New Orleans (with OKC sitting ahead of the Pelicans). The Suns are determined to get back the postseason after barely missing out last April. But, if I have to make a bold prediction, I figure this would be the boldest one of all (within reason).
The biggest hinderance to this prediction coming true won't be the play of the Suns or Thunder. It'll be the health of Pelicans' star Anthony Davis. The emerging power forward is currently dealing with a sprained toe. If this leads to him missing any significant time, I don't see New Orleans making enough of a push. But, if he can stay on the court, he gives the Pelicans an inside force that can provide a counterbalance to the outside presence of the other contenders. (Yes, I know that I'm contradicting myself from the Northwest Division part of this monologue, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for both instances to happen.)
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