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January 29, 2015

NFL Weekly Predictions: Super Bowl XLIX

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Seattle vs. New England (-1)

The Seahawks overcame a 15-point, fourth quarter deficit to Green Bay, using a recovered onside kick to take the lead before winning in overtime 28-22 at CenturyLink Field. Seattle won the OT coin toss and won on Russell Wilson's 35-yard touchdown pass to Jermaine Kearse.

"Call it the 'Comeback of the Century,'" Wilson said. "As for the Packers, they went from Super Bowl to 'Super Blow.' I think Mike McCarthy realizes now how tough it is the win in Seattle. After all, this is definitely Seahawks territory, and apparently, not 'four down territory.'

"A lot of people doubted us when we were down to the Packers. But not our fans. In fact, they share the same rallying cry as diehard Patriots fans: 'We believe!' But let's be serious. The Pats and Seahawks are probably two of the most despised teams in the NFL. But forced to choose a favorite, I think most fans would pick New England, because they are the 'less air' of two evils.

"Just like us, the Patriots have a shutdown corner in Darrelle Revis. Sure, maybe it's wise to avoid Revis, but we certainly won't avoid Brandon Browner. If Revis has 'Revis Island,' then Bolden has 'Treasure Island,' and his pirate flag flies yellow. If Browner were an investment firm, it would be called 'Brandon Browner Holdings."

The Patriots whipped the visiting Colts 45-7 to reach their seventh Super Bowl, and Tom Brady's sixth. Brady passed for 3 scores, while LeGarrette Blount rushed for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns.

"If Patriots fans were worried about the Colts," Brady said, "LeGarrette's 30 carries said 'hold it' and his three scores said 'you can all exhale.' He was clicking on all cylinders, and a cylinder just happens to be the shape of a bong. Blount had some great runs against the Colts, but let's be serious — his best 'play' of the year was walking off the field at Pittsburgh. If you think that was orchestrated by Bill Belichick, you obviously have an inflated sense of the lengths Belichick will go for a competitive edge.

"Ray Lewis had the nerve to say without the 'Tuck Rule,' I wouldn't be the quarterback I am today. He's got a point, but as much as I'd like to forget how we won that game, it's practically impossible to destroy that much evidence.

"And speaking of evidence, now we're being accused of deflating footballs to our advantage. I like my balls a little under-inflated; it gives me better grip. Now, all other questions about my 'main squeeze' better be about my wife. They're calling it "Deflate Gate." It's not "Spy Gate," but it could easily be called "PSI Gate." On that note, deflated balls or not, we plan to pound every square inch of the Seahawks.

"On the bright side, Patriots merchandise sales are through the roof, especially our 'lye' soap line.

"A win against the Seahawks and the Patriots legacy as one of, if not the best, teams in NFL history will be cemented. I would say this franchise could be called 'fabled,' but in light of recent events, I'd rather it not be."

The captains of both teams meet at midfield for the coin toss. Referee Bill Vinovich asks Marshawn Lynch to call it. Lynch refuses, but politely replies, "Thanks for asking." Vinovich turns to Brady with the same question. Brady eschews "heads" or "tails," and instead calls a press conference to respond. After ten minutes of talking and no straight answer, Julian Edelman finally answers "tails" for the Pats, who win the toss and elect to receive.

Upon starting at their own 20, the Pats challenge Sherman immediately, with a Blount sweep to the right side. Sherman makes the tackle for a loss, and pops up pointing to his left elbow, which is protected by an elbow pad approved by the "American Dream" himself, Dusty Rhodes. Brady confronts Sherman, and the two exchange heated words and have to be separated, but not before drawing offsetting unsportsmanlike penalty flags. NBC's Al Michael quips that the two young men may need some schooling on anger management, and seconds later, "University of Mad Bros" apparel hits the Internet.

NBC breaks for commercials, and the first ad to air after kickoff is State Farm's new ad, featuring Aaron Rodgers, Hans, Franz, 12 New England footballs, and the catchphrase, "We're here to pump you up."

After an exchange of punts, the Pats strike first, after a seven minute drive culminates in a 21-yard Brady pass to Rob Gronkowski in the corner of the end zone. Pete Carroll challenges, alleging that Gronk did not get both feet inbounds. After review, the TD is upheld, but replay officials notice something fishy about Gronkowski's celebratory spike — the ball doesn't bounce. Officials confiscate the ball, which is sent to NFL headquarters in New York City for storage in the Patriots evidence locker, which was recently awarded its own zip code.

The Seahawks strike back when Wilson connects with Lynch on a short completion that Lynch turns into a touchdown after nimbly working his way through the New England defense, leaving the Pats, once again, grasping for air. Lynch poses in the end zone, where he is showered with Skittles, as well as Lionel Messi's unwanted "Golden Boot" award from the 2014 World Cup.

After a second quarter of give and take, the Seahawks take a 13-10 lead at the halftime break.

Katy Perry hits the field for halftime dressed in a provocative low-cut top, which has many picturing Super Bowl "DD," censors scurrying to prevent a double wardrobe malfunction, and Pepsi worried about 'cans.'. The "Human Juggs Machine" starts the show with a nod to Jerry Jones and Lawrence Taylor with her 2010 hit "Teenage Dream."

Perry then pays tribute to Seattle's quarterback with "I Kissed a Swirl," then simulates marking a male dancer with a hot iron with the letters "RW," and jokingly calls it a "Russell Brand."

Perry then honors all the coaches recently terminated with her 2010 hit, "Firework."

Perry then dedicates her next song to Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay Packers with "The One That Got Away."

Not one to shy away from the Patriots "Deflate Gate" controversy, Perry then performs a medley of Air Supply songs. Perry then pays tribute to the Seahawks with a modified cover of Charlie XCX's hit called "(Legion of) Boom! Clap!"

Perry then welcomes Lenny Kravitz to the stage, and joins him for "American Woman." As the song concludes, Kravitz rips Perry's top off, revealing twins, the Olson twins, in fact, Mary Kate and Ashley, who unveil their new cosmetics line, "Put This On Your Face and Pay Us."

The Seahawks take the second half kickoff and give the Pats a steady dose of Lynch. Lynch carries the ball six straight times for 35 yards. With the Pats stacking the line of scrimmage, Wilson hits tight end Luke Willson on a play action pass for a 12-yard score. Seattle takes a 20-10 lead.

The Patriots close to 20-17 as Edelman scores on a double-reverse from six yards in the third quarter. Seattle adds a Steven Hauschka field goal late in the fourth quarter, and the Seahawks lead 23-17 with under two minutes to go.

The stage is set for a Brady-led drive, with a touchdown giving him his fourth Super Bowl championship. The Patriots methodically work the ball to the Seattle 35-yard line with less than 20 seconds left. One Hail Mary pass sails out of the end zone on third down, leaving the Pats with one final chance. Brady tosses a rainbow, and the ball somehow finds its way into the hands of Danny Amendola in the end zone. It's a touchdown! Or is it? Officials wave off the play, as the whistle blew just before the snap when Pete Carroll signaled for a time out. It's "Epic Fail Mary!"

The Patriots subsequent fourth down pass is batted out of bounds by Kam Cameron.

Seattle wins, 23-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:27 AM | Comments (0)

January 28, 2015

How to Fix College Basketball

For as long as I can remember, my main sports interest in the winter and early spring has been college basketball.

I know that having such a passion for college hoops was a function of my environment. With my earliest memories coming in the early-to-mid '90s, and having a father who graduated from Duke, college basketball became a very natural love.

But beyond that, with my mother having graduated from Winthrop, who would become a mid-major power in the late-'90s and 2000s, and with Charleston, South Carolina, being my hometown and living there during some of College of Charleston's best years, I grew up enjoying all of Division I college basketball.

For at least the last decade or so, part of my morning routine has included checking all of the previous night's scores, whether it be the Pac-12, Big West, Southern Conference, or SEC. And at least a couple times a week, especially once we got into this part of the season, I'd check every conference's standings. After all, I wanted to know who the teams most likely to make noise in March when the stakes were the highest.

But in recent years, I've felt the passion start to wane. No longer did I feel like I wanted to watch games on any night of the week if I was able, and I checked scores much less often. Now, in this season, I don't think I've checked the results of every game from around the country once since December. I'm not at all aware of what power conference or mid-major teams might be on the bubble as of now.

In short, I've followed and watched college basketball less this season than in any season since I was about 9 years old.

There are some people who will tell you that complaints about the state of college basketball are nothing new. And to an extent, that's true. However, the sport has reached what has to be a tipping point.

This is the slowest season on record by pace, and one of the lowest-scoring seasons, with no signs of that trend coming to an end any time soon. In general, with teams averaging about 65 possessions a game, and about 1.01 points per possession, as per Ken Pomeroy's renowned data, it seems as if many games are simply down to who scores 60 or 65 points first.

In 2015, it seems like about 70 possessions per game is the standard for a team playing fast. Those teams are about two standard deviations above the nation's average, which in layman's terms means they're in the top 5 percent of the country when it comes to playing fast. In 2002, the first year of Pomeroy's database, teams averaged about 70 possessions a game.

Of course, pace is not synonymous with quality. A simple fix for making games faster would be to cut down the shot clock to 30 or 24 seconds. If not implemented with other changes, cutting down the shot clock would be pointless, and might make a sport where players have increasing trouble making shots even worse.

The NCAA, for all of its numerous faults, does have a nice archive of past NCAA tournament games up on YouTube, which means we can get a decent look at how the game was played at the highest levels in past years. Let's start with the classic 1992 Duke/Kentucky game.

Admittedly, this is merely regarded as one of the greatest start-to-finish games in the history of the sport. But if you watch any number of possessions, you can see that players are very free to move, ball handlers aren't hand-checked, interior defenders aren't overly physical, and there aren't really any absurd hijinks off the ball (the Christian Laettner chest stomp on Aminu Timberlake aside). In one passage I watched, Len Elmore argued for a foul being called that wasn't. To my eyes, it simply looked like what would be normal play in 2015.

Let's fast forward to 2000, and the Michigan State/Florida national title game. It's a bit more physical, but players are still given freedom of movement, and the game flows like a game of basketball should.

Then, look at the UConn/Kentucky championship game last year. You can hardly go a possession without seeing grabbing and shoving down low, cutters getting held or shoved, or screens that go beyond the letter of the law. This type of behavior has continued into many of the biggest games this season.

College basketball should have cleaned this up years ago. In the first half of last season, officials emphasized some of these types of should-be fouls at the beginning of the season, before abandoning everything being emphasized because too many people whined about too many fouls being called.

Officials need to keep emphasizing those rules throughout a season, even at the risk of a 70-foul NCAA tournament game. Eventually, players and coaches will get the point, just like they get used to a more passive or whistle-happy official from game to game. Then the officials should come back the next season, and emphasize even more rules, completely through that season.

College hoops also suffers from far too many stoppages in play. With five timeouts at a coach's disposal each game, and four (lengthy) media timeouts each half, a normal college game can have nearly 20 stoppages. This for a sport which is undoubtedly at its best when there's a rhythm and a flow to the game.

I still maintain that you need second bachelor's degree to completely understand all the minutiae of NBA timeout rules, but the fundamental principle in those rules that keeps the game moving is that timeouts get taken away from teams if they haven't taken them by a certain point in a game. And some timeouts, if taken early in halves or quarters, take the place of media timeouts.

This isn't exactly rocket science, and it could both keep the game moving and sell about the same number of ads. It shouldn't take Duke and St. John's two hours and 15 minutes to play 40 minutes, when the average 48-minute NBA game is about that same length.

However, while my personal preference for college basketball has diminished, my passion for the sport of basketball has not. I've found myself watching more NBA games this season. In the pros right now, there are loads of likable teams and stars, games are extremely entertaining, and overly physical play gets whistled while teams can still maintain a defensive identity.

It wasn't always like that. As recently as the mid-2000s, the NBA suffered from a lack of offense, too much physicality, and too much individual basketball. It cleaned the game up, and a generation of largely team-first stars has helped make the NBA as enjoyable as it's ever been.

College basketball can get back to being an enjoyable product once again. It has to make changes for the better soon, or it risks becoming even more unwatchable.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 5:30 PM | Comments (0)

January 27, 2015

NFL State of the Union

Last Tuesday, the President of the United States gave his annual State of the Union address to Congress. Rather than reporting on the Pro Bowl, I thought this would be a good week to review the state of the National Football League — the league itself, not the Players' Association, though we'll touch on that.

The state of the NFL is strong, of course. It's the most popular sports league in North America, and it will remain so for the foreseeable future. But even a strong league has areas for improvement.

The Wrong Kind of News

This year, the NFL has been defined by scandal. The league has been trending in this direction ever since Roger Goodell took over as Commissioner, but we've reached a peak this season. The biggest NFL stories weren't the Seahawks' quest to repeat, the brilliance of J.J. Watt, DeMarco Murray's pursuit of the single-season rushing record, or the rise of two young quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson) who look like cinch Hall of Famers. Rather, the league drew most attention for a player knocking out his fiancee, another player using a switch on his child, a rookie quarterback more interested in partying than playing, and a team tampering with footballs. Instead of celebrating the game, we're busy scolding the men who play it.

DeflateGate doesn't interest me. Partially that's because the Patriots are the best team in the AFC, and they beat the Colts 45-7. Tom Brady using slightly under-inflated footballs didn't help the New England defense hold Andrew Luck to his worst day as a pro. But the controversy led off the nightly news last week. Instead of talking about the Super Bowl, we're debating the inflation level of footballs in the AFC Championship Game. This is the tone Goodell has set as Commissioner.

Under Goodell's watch, the Commissioner's office has repeatedly made news for its off-field discipline program. In theory, the system is designed to make the league look good by discouraging bad behavior among players. Around 2006, many sports fans regarded NBA players as "thugs," and with a Cincinnati Bengals player and/or Pacman Jones getting arrested every weekend, the NFL was in danger of the same reputation.

But today, it seems like the league is more interested in doling out punishments than protecting its image. The NFL has become so aggressive in targeting players and teams, it's created a culture of scandal, giving casual fans the impression that the league is full of domestic abusers and cheaters. The league appears to be so obsessed with catching people, it's detracting from the sport. It's managed to make a scandal bigger news than the Super Bowl.

The two-game suspension for Ray Rice was ridiculous — if the league was going to do anything, it needed to do much more — but the Commissioner's office has been overreacting to its mistake ever since. Now, the NFL is expected to intervene any time one of its 1,000+ players makes a mistake. It's become an avenue for moral judgment, and both its investigations and its punishments are expected to exceed those of the legal system. That is not only nuts, it's barbaric. The Western justice system represents the peak of civilization, and the notion that ideas like guilty-until-proven-innocent are too lax for the league should horrify every one of the NFL's millions of fans.

Over the past few years, we've had DeflateGate, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Ndamukong Suh, Bounty Gate, Mike Tomlin standing too close to the sideline, and I don't even remember what else. Let's bring the focus back to the game.

Player Safety

For all the NFL's action regarding off-field issues, there's remarkably little discipline for on-field violence. Player safety obviously is not an issue that interests this Commissioner. There's no money in it.

The league has introduced a number of rules, one or two of them pretty radical reinterpretations of tackle football, ostensibly aimed at improving player safety. But the new rules are stupid. They're ineffective, poorly considered, and unevenly enforced. The concussion protocol improved noticeably in 2014, but there are still too many players returning to the field immediately after serious head injuries. The "defenseless receiver" rules have had way too much effect on the game: it's difficult to play defense in this environment. And protections for the quarterback are out of control. It is literally illegal to touch the quarterback's head in any context, and it's a huge (15-yard) penalty. The rules should serve common sense, not the other way around.

The other issue is dirty play. Deliberately injuring an opponent is taken no more seriously than accidentally doing so, or even accidentally coming close. You can get suspended indefinitely for hitting someone in a non-football context, but punching another player probably won't earn more than a 15-yard penalty and a fine. You won't miss any game time.

That's a significant failure on the league's part, but it also falls on the union. You would expect player safety to be a point of agreement, but the union is much more interested in fighting suspensions than in facilitating safety. I blame this in part on the adversarial relationship between Commissioner Goodell and the players. They don't trust him, so the gut reaction is to oppose any form of punishment, even when it's in the interests of 99% of the players. The Commissioner, in turn, is far more interested in his off-field discipline program, so he doesn't press too hard about on-field issues. Goodell picked his issue, and it's not this.

Football

Football is the most popular sport in the U.S.A. There's nothing really wrong with the game. But it's changing in a way I think the league can and should address. Too much offense centers around passing right now. It takes some of the fun out of sports when records aren't meaningful, and there's not a single passing record that is exciting in today's game, because none of them seem like they're going to last very long.

I'd like to see the NFL make defensive pass interference reviewable via replay, and cap the penalty at 15 yards, not spot of the foul. A non-reviewable 40-yard penalty is a game-changing play, and it creates an incentive for QBs to just lob a deep pass downfield and hope they draw a flag. As a fan, that makes me cringe. We also need to address protection for the quarterback, just by giving officials some discretion: have 5-yard and 15-yard penalties for illegal contact to the QB. The league doesn't want refs making judgment calls, but right now the system is worse: everything is 15 yards and an automatic first down. If pass rushers don't have to be quite so careful, it will shift some leverage back to the defense.

I also hope the league will become more aggressive in calling offensive pass interference, and I really liked Cris Collinsworth's suggestion to move the illegal contact zone, using 10 yards instead of 5. Put a few of those tweaks in place, and without doing anything too dramatic, you make football look more like it did 10 years ago. That's a good move, I think.

* * *

The NFL is fine. None of these steps appear urgent — yet. But there are common-sense, easy-to-implement ideas for improving the NFL: both the game and the image of the league. In 2014, the NFL returned to using "indisputable visual evidence" on replay reviews, which I feel was a great step in the right direction. The state of the union is already strong, but the league can do more.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:20 PM | Comments (1)

Ernie Banks, RIP: Always a Beautiful Day

There is no joy in Wrigleyville. Mighty Ernie has checked out. At 83. Cub fans aren't the only ones in baseball's world who think that, for Ernie Banks, it's still too young to go.

Winning with class is easy compared to losing with grace, good humor, and the inner peace of knowing you did the best you could with what you had. But then there was Banks. The prototype of the power-hitting shortstop whose knees turned him into a first baseman who could still hit but had to prove himself every spring, anyway, his sunny nature couldn't be killed by the most calamitous of Cub collapses.

Sometimes you could be overwhelmed enough by Banks's personality that you could forget he was a genuinely great player. The first shortstop to hit 250+ home runs while playing that position is also the only man who ever had multiple-homer games against Warren Spahn and Sandy Koufax.

The first black player to start for the Cubs is also the first man in National League history to win back to back Most Valuable Player awards (1958, 1959). And he did it playing for teams that finished a combined 64 games out of first place over the two seasons. Not to mention that Banks is the first man to hit five grand slams in a single season.

The man who figured out almost by accident that a whip-handled, light bat was no detriment to hitting the long ball had four consecutive seasons hitting 40 or more home runs in each. Neither fellow wrists-first hitter Hank Aaron nor Willie Mays ever did that in three consecutive seasons. You might care to note as well that Banks is only one of three shortstops to cross the 40-bomb seasonal plateau even once. One was the seemingly tainted Alex Rodriguez, then a Texas Ranger. The other was Rico Petrocelli with the 1969 Red Sox.

Lest you think Banks was just another swatter aided and abetted by the park he first dubbed the Friendly Confines, be advised that he hit a mere 68 more home runs at home than on the road during his major league career. He also defied the traditional platoon splits: he retired with 2,584 hits, and two thirds of those came at the expense of right-handed pitchers, including about two thirds of his home runs.

Very impressive for a native Texan who didn't look terribly athletic or play baseball at all until he was a teenager and then in church leagues — because his high school didn't have a baseball team. He was tall for a shortstop, slender, almost delicately handsome, and his uniform looked about three sizes beyond him in the beginning.

Banks got his first taste of major league level baseball playing for the Kansas City Monarchs, the Negro Leagues team that also yielded forth Jackie Robinson a few years earlier. He was so happy just to play the game that it took his teammates' prodding to convince him to leave for the Cubs in 1953. It took an unexpected injury to the Cubs' other black player at the time, Gene Baker, to make Banks the first black man to wear a Cub uniform in a starting lineup.

Banks' talent was obvious enough to move Baker to second base, and the slightly older player simply accepted it and taught the eager kid everything he knew about playing shortstop. Their execution of double plays in hand with first baseman Steve Bilko impressed broadcaster Bert Wilson enough to dub the trio as Bingo to Bango to Bilko, which beats the living hell out of Tinker to Evers to Chance. Lyrical alliteration.

"Banks could have been a Cardinal," wrote lifelong Cub afflicted George F. Will in A Nice Little Place on the North Side: Wrigley Field at One Hundred last year.

"In the spring of 1953, one of that team's scouts saw him playing shortstop for the ... Monarchs ... and sent a favourable report to St. Louis. The Cardinals sent out another scout for a second opinion, which was: "I don't think he is a major league prospect. He can't hit, he can't run, he has a pretty good arm but it's a scatter arm. I don't like him." In the annals of misjudgments, that ranks with the report on the screen test of a young Fred Astaire: "Can't act. Slightly bald. Can dance a little."

Banks' only known actual problem, other than having been a so-so baserunner, was a knee injury incurred during his early 1950s military service that finally flared up in earnest in 1961. It compelled his move to first base, where he played the rest of his career. It didn't do a thing to kill his genuine love for the game.

Teammates who loved Banks otherwise sometimes didn't know what to make of him. The late Jim Brosnan, whose pitching career began with the 1950s Cubs, thought it was "almost impossible" to get to know Banks. All Cub fans and anyone else knew was that, whatever else was going on in Banks's off-field life, in the clubhouse and on the field was where he felt most at home.

"Some people," he would say in his memoir Mr. Cub, "feel that because you are black you will never be treated fairly, and that you should voice your opinions, be militant about them. I don't feel this way. You can't convince a fool against his will."

Banks eventually had to work to convince Leo Durocher, just about every spring the Lip managed the Cubs, that he still had what it took despite assorted Durocher assertions otherwise. Until his knees, long since gone arthritic, finally told him to call it a career after 1971.

Entire books have been written about why the 1969 Cubs blew a National League East they once looked to run away with, including the theory (not implausible) that Durocher mishandled his bullpens, rode his regulars too hard leaving them exhausted by the depth of the stretch, and even fostered a culture of greed on a team so unaccustomed to winning they could barely come to terms with their unexpected celebrity.

Banks didn't need an entire book to know why. According to sports psychologist David Claerbaut, whose Durocher's Cubs: The Greatest Team That Didn't Win should be considered the definitive book about the 1969 Cubs, Banks saw the team's collapse coming long before anyone else did.

Claerbaut cited a conversation between Banks and pitcher Ken Holtzman over drinks in Pittsburgh. "Kenny," the veteran told the younger man, "we have a nine game lead and we're not going to win it because we have a manager and three or four players who are out there waiting to get beat."

He would also admit, decades later, that the incident in which Ron Santo tore apart rookie outfielder Don Young in the press over a pair of fielding miscues probably did as much as Durocher's capriciousness and strategic inability to manage his pitching staff to deflate the '69 Cubs.

Banks' criticisms came dressed in a marshmallow overcoat. He could never bear to rip a teammate or manager, preferring to criticize kindly. He couldn't even bear to confess his disappointment at never getting to play in a postseason in abrasive or even overtly painful words. He once told Tim Kurkjian, the ESPN writer, that it "has always left me with an empty feeling inside. I loved the game so much. To not ever play in the World Series, let alone win it, still hurts. It's the ultimate achievement for a player. I really thought we were going to get there in 1969."

"When the Cubs crashed in September, losing 11 of 12 to go from five games ahead to four-and-a-half behind, it all happened so fast that it seemed more grotesque than dramatic and, by the end, darkly comic. Banks slumped, too. But after seven straight loses, he made a personal stand. Against the Phils he drove in a run in the first inning, then homered in the eighth to give the Cubs a 2-1 lead; they blew it, of course. The next day, in the only Cub win of the whole smashup, Banks drove in four of their five runs. That was the old man's statement; not nearly enough, but something.

"On the final day of the season, when ... Durocher, the grouch who said, "Nice guys finish last," was disengaged from his team and stuck with the disgrace of his defeat, Banks was still showing up — just to play baseball. On the season's last day, Banks, the oldest man in the lineup, played his 155th game of the year and had a triple, homer and drove in three runs to finish the season with 106 RBI, a total he hadn't topped since his 20s."

— Thomas Boswell, while introducing Phil Rogers's Ernie Banks: Mr. Cub and the Summer of '69

He was perhaps the least pretentious baseball superstar. Sometimes he couldn't seem to find a set place in the Cubs' organizational culture after his playing and subsequent coaching days ended. (The organization sometimes seemed to treat him like as one writer described, the crazy uncle with whom nobody in the family knows quite what to do.) Banks made his post baseball way in and out of a few businesses (smart investing made him wealthy during a playing career in a time when ballplayers were chattel) and never out of Cub Country's embrace.

"Banks is one nice guy who finished first," Durocher eventually said, setting aside his former testiness that he couldn't rid himself of the aging Banks because it would have meant his hanging in Chicago, "but he had the talent to go with it." Except, alas, in marriage, where it took him three tries before his fourth marriage, apparently, proved that practice makes perfect.

"We got the setting. We got the sunshine. We got the team behind us," Banks said to begin his induction speech at the Hall of Fame, where he was 1977′s only inductee voted in by the Baseball Writers Association of America, and where a small coterie of Hall of Famers sat on the same stage. "So let's play two."

Banks always wanted to play two. He also always believed the Cubs would snap out of it and get to the Promised Land in his two lifetimes, one on the field, and the second as the Cubs' unquestioned spirit.

"Without Banks," said Jimmy Dykes, then manager of the crosstown White Sox, in 1958, "the Cubs would finish in Albuquerque." With Banks now in direct position to urge the God of his fathers, this year's Cubs might finish some place other than Albuquerque. The Promised Land is not an indistinct possibility. Yet.

Get the latest MLB headlines and news at betonsports.com now.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:45 AM | Comments (0)

January 26, 2015

NHL's Wild West Sees Unpredictable Finish

Now that the NHL is entering the second half of the season, it's time to really knuckle down and prepare for the playoff races. In the Western Conference, there's no telling who will make it. Anaheim and Nashville are the clear leaders; St. Louis and Chicago are also probably in barring a major collapse. The last four spots see a number of teams duking it out down the stretch. Who will make it? That remains to be seen, but it should be one heck of a ride.

Los Angeles Kings

Are the Kings in or out? The reigning Stanley Cup champs have looked equal parts world beaters and also rans this season, though that's not anything new for them. The L.A. roster has looked very similar over the past few years, and that means the core team has played plenty of extra games between the playoffs and the Olympics. But will experience kick in for the stretch run again or will three years of deep playoff runs finally empty their gas tank?

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks have been one of the most consistent and most baffling teams of the past decade. After last year's historic loss to the Kings, internal turmoil took center stage. On one hand, both veterans and younger players have played well and San Jose has defeated the best of the best. On the other, though, they've consistently lost to the worst of the worst. This could either be the first steps in a team coming together or middle of the road mediocrity.

Calgary Flames

Each season has that one team that statistically should not be as good as its record. Last year, it was the Colorado Avalanche. This year, it appears to be the Calgary Flames. Advanced stats show that the Flames should fall back to Earth, and they did for a stretch in December. However, they continue to work hard and pester the seemingly better teams. Now we'll see if their puck luck continues to hold up.

Vancouver Canucks

Depending on which night you tuned into the Vancouver Canucks, you may have felt that this was the elite team from several seasons back or the listless squad from last year. The good news is that Ryan Miller is having a solid season, and the Sedin twins are playing at an elite level. The bad news is that the team is woefully thin with a lack of secondary scoring. Being top heavy has doomed the Canucks in the past; will it lead to a second-half collapse?

Winnipeg Jets

Few people would have penciled in the Jets to be this competitive this late into the season. A strong showing from breakout goalie Michael Hutchinson has been the biggest story coming out of Winnipeg. However, the Jets have a decidedly average home record, and while that's not a requirement for making the post-season, enjoying a home-ice advantage during the stretch run makes a big difference when the intensity ratchets up.

Dallas Stars

The Stars were the expected breakout team in the Western Conference, and it took them a long time to start living up the hype. Within spitting distance of a wild card spot, the Stars have one of the best goals-for in the league — and one of the worst goals-against. Goaltending is a huge issue in Texas, and the Stars seem to have lost faith in Kari Lehtonen. Will a deadline deal for a goalie push them over the top?

Colorado Avalanche

Last year's puck luck darlings were the Avalanche. Many advanced stats experts called the team a house of cards, and the first half of the season saw plenty of reasons why. Patrick Roy's team has fought back from the dead to be considered part of the mix, albeit a long shot. Still, the forward group has underachieved, and if the click on the level they should, there's a chance that Colorado can surge back in.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:27 AM | Comments (0)

January 22, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Proposition Bets

1. Winner: Seattle/New England
2. Versus spread: Seattle (+1)/New England (-1)
3. Total points (game): over/under 47½
4. Total points (1st quarter): over/under 9½
5. Total points (2nd quarter): over/under 13½
6. Total points (3rd quarter): over/under 9½
7. Total points (4th quarter): over/under 13½
8. Versus spread (halftime): Seattle (+½)/New England (-½)
9. Number of team captains (both teams) at midfield for coin toss: over/under 8½
10. National anthem: a cappella/accompanied by music
11. Length of national anthem (from start of lyrics): over/under 1:43½
12. Temperature at kickoff: over/under 72½
13. Winner of coin toss: Seattle/New England
14. Coin toss called: heads/tails
15. Coin toss result: heads/tails
16. Seattle to: kick/receive
17. First possession begins at yard line: over/under 20½
18. First play from scrimmage: run/pass
19. Yards gained on first play from scrimmage: over/under 4½
20. First Seattle pass: complete/incomplete
21. First New England pass: complete/incomplete
22. First penalty called on: offense/defense
23. Yardage length of first accepted penalty: over/under 5½
24. Tom Brady passing yardage: over/under 269½
25. Russell Wilson turnovers: over/under 1½
26. Wilson passing yardage: over/under 223½
27. Brady turnovers: over/under ½
28. Rob Gronkowski receiving yards: over/under 84½
29. Marshawn Lynch rushing yards: over/under 104½
30. Doug Baldwin receptions: over/under 4½
31. Julian Edelman receiving yards: over/under 73½
32. New England rushing yards: over/under 116½
33. Brandon Lafell receptions: over/under 3½
34. Earl Thomas interceptions: over/under ½
35. Richard Sherman passes defended: over/under ½
36. Jon Ryun punt average: over/under 45½
37. LeGarrette Blount carries + Jonas Gray carries – Shane Vereen receptions: over/under 15½
38. Jermaine Kearse touchdowns: over/under ½
39. Accepted defensive pass interference penalties: over/under 2½
40. Stephen Gostkowski point-after-touchdown conversions: over/under 2½
41. Steven Hauschka missed field goals: over/under ½
42. Lynch rushing touchdowns: over/under ½
43. First team to score: Seattle/New England
44. Points of first score: over/under 3½
45. Yardage length of first Seattle touchdown: over/under 9½
46. Yardage length of first New England touchdown: over/under 8½
47. Jersey number of first Seahawk to score a touchdown: over/under 15½
48. Jersey number of first Patriot to score a touchdown: over/under 29½
49. First touchdown: pass/rush
50. Defensive/special teams touchdowns (both teams): over/under ½
51. Coaches challenges: over/under 1½
52. Two-point conversion attempts: over/under 1½
53. Total points (halftime): over/under 23½
54. Add total points at halftime; sum is: odd/even
55. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (1st half): over/under 1:58½
56. Length of longest Haushka field goal: over/under 41½
57. Total yards (both teams): over/under 721½
58. Brandon Lafell receiving yards: over/under 40½
59. Seattle third-down efficiency: over/under 41.66½%
60. New England third-down efficiency: over/under 40.51½%
61. Missed field goals: over/under ½
62. Seattle first downs: over/under 20½
63. New England first downs: over/under 20½
64. Seattle penalties: over/under 6½
65. New England penalties: over/under 4½
66. Tie score at any point in fourth quarter: yes/no
67. Largest lead at any point in game: over/under 7½
68. Attendance: over/under 63,888½
69. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (2nd half): over/under 1:57½
70. Points scored in last two minutes of game: over/under 7½
71. Time outs called in last two minutes of game: over/under 2½
72. Jersey number of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 11½
73. Letters in last name of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 5½
74. Duration of game: over/under 3:19½
75. Referee's jersey number: over/under 81½
76. Seattle time of possession: over/under 30:01½
77. New England time of possession: over/under 29:57½

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:28 AM | Comments (0)

January 21, 2015

Nats Win More Than One Way With Scherzer

Almost a year ago, enough of baseball thought Max Scherzer might be a little crazy for spurning the Detroit Tigers' $160 million contract extension offer in favor of playing the market to come. Now more than half of baseball seem to think both Scherzer and the Washington Nationals were crazy like foxes.

Free agency is a crapshoot. Scherzer gambled and won big enough. The question before the house, however, is how much the Nats stand to win or lose with Scherzer aboard. And the answer just might be that Scherzer wins big but the Nats win ridiculous.

First, about Scherzer. He not only won a very dicey free agency gamble but he and the Nats were smart enough to break the $210 million contract down so that Scherzer will earn $15 million per year over the 14 years to come.

Oh, he'll see a lot of money now, too. That $50 million signing bonus, for one, likewise to be spread over a few years. And $15 million a year is nothing to mourn whether or not Scherzer is on the mound for the next fourteen years. But how many professional athletes in position for a gigabucks payday think beyond the now, however long the now lasts?

Scherzer was going to get his big payday no matter what. Even if it wouldn't quite equal the one Clayton Kershaw got last year with his yummy extension.If the Tigers were willing to cut bait on him after last spring's extension rejection, no matter how acute their pitching needs, there were teams who would be more than willing to make Scherzer a happy camper.

Now, about the Nats. They had a pitching problem on their hands that needed a solution swift and smart or at least a lever they could operate to resolve it. Not to mention the potential problem they had elsewhere on the field.

Jordan Zimmermann can take his first taste of free agency after the 2015 season. Doug Fister's free agency comes then, too. Stephen Strasburg can take his first taste after the 2016 season. Until convincing Scherzer he can be happy in Washington, the Nats were looking at the very real possibility of losing three top arms for nothing in return. Not to mention losing infielder Ian Desmond and outfielder Denard Span after '15 and for the same return.

With one masterstroke the Nats went from question jugglers to sitting on Pretty Street, as a lady named Jane Ace once warbled on the radio. They can just about call the trade dance any time they want to, and to their advantage.

The smart word has it that Desmond isn't quite satisfied with just a $107 million contract offer from the Nats, and that Zimmermann — who often says he wants to stay in Washington — might actually prefer to play closer to his native Wisconsin.The Nats can think about moving either or both to bring aboard needed reinforcements.

Before the Scherzer signing, the Nats looked somewhat on the dubious side when they swapped their solid setup man Tyler Clippard for shortstop Yunel Escobar. They must have thought they were working a little leverage with Desmond while possibly planning for Escobar to play second base with Asdrubal Cabrera gone to Oakland.

Good luck with that. Escobar was once a formidable defender and might still have a way to get that back. But he's also considered, shall we say, less than a clubhouse jewel, and on a team that's proud of its clubhouse ambience there's a calculated risk right there. They're obviously not that confident in Danny Espinosa's future and signing Dan Uggla to a minor-league deal is probably a desperation-backup resort. Even with the rumor mills grinding over Desmond being involved in trade talks with the Mets.

There's even been speculation that Strasburg himself could be a trade subject. Was it that long ago that Strasburg was the talk of the nation as a number-one draft pick? Was it that long ago that the world went nutshit over the Strasburg Plan following his recovery from Tommy John surgery? Was it that far past that people blamed the Strasburg Plan (erroneously) for the Nats cratering in the 2012 division series?

Strasburg's been an above-average pitcher flashing signs of greatness whose most glaring problem has been losing his command here and there. Even two years ago nobody could think of Strasburg as anything but a Nat. That was then. This is Scherzer Time. And, of course, the trade talk could be just talk and the Nats could also stand pat right now and put only the best looking starting rotation in the National League on display and the mound.

Think about that. This may not quite be a group of Hall of Famers in waiting, but how many teams have virtual sixth starters as good as Tanner Roark?

Scherzer is 30. Scherzer, Strasburg, Zimmermann, Fister, Roark, and Gio Gonzalez have had best-season win totals of fifteen or higher, and all those have been in the past three years. Two (Scherzer and Gonzalez) have been 20+ game winners. And these guys can strike hitters out without breaking sweats.

The Nats could decide just to think about Roark as bait for reinforcements. They could decide maybe Zimmermann and Roark could get them some lovely and needed returns. They could do likewise regarding, maybe, Zimmermann and Fister. Or even Strasburg and Zimmermann. They need bullpen reinforcements as well as a little middle infield and outfield help, and it wouldn't hurt if that help also happened to bat left-handed with authority, too.

Bet Max Scherzer didn't think wrapping his arms and his financial future around the Nats was going to put the Nats into that powerful a position of strength. If he leads the Nats to the Promised Land in 2015, music to Nats' fans and other ears alike, Scherzer will make general manager Mike Rizzo and owner Ted Lerner look like both halves of Albert Schweitzer.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:28 PM | Comments (0)

January 20, 2015

NBA Season: We're Halfway There

Heading into this MLK Day, most of the NBA teams have reached (or pushed past) the halfway point of the season. The first two and a-half months offered up some interesting results. Some were expected (i.e. the Western Conference is stronger than its Eastern counterpart). Some ... not so much (i.e., the Atlanta Hawks currently own the best record in the Eastern Conference).

Around 1,230 contests have been decided, meaning we've got 1,230 more to witness before the playoffs come back around. So, why not look ahead and figure out how everything shakes out before, well, it shakes out. To start, I don't see any reason why the best team over the first half of the season won't stay at the top come season's end. Golden State leads the Pacific Division with the NBA's best scoring offense and the league's best point differential (nearly 5 ppg clear of East-leading Atlanta). I don't see the Clippers catching the Warriors, let alone anyone else in that Left Coast group. But what about the other divisions around the Association?

Toronto's Atlantic Division Lead is Safe

Last season, the Raptors were the surprise of the NBA. Possessing a five-year postseason drought, no one was expecting the Canadian franchise to challenge the veteran-laden Nets or Knicks for division bragging rights, let alone beat them outright. The fact that Toronto could shimmy their way right to the top showed many that the Atlantic was the weakest division in the Association.

A couple of weeks into 2015, the Raptor co-own the honor of having the league's largest division lead (10 games). The rest of the Atlantic ... that hasn't really changed much. Brooklyn is a year older, lost one of their veteran cogs (Paul Pierce) in the offseason, and could reportedly be on the market. The Knicks and Celtics have gone into full "rebuild" mode. New York might trade everyone not named Carmelo. Boston parlayed Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green in even more draft picks and future cap space. The Sixers ... let's just not go there.

So, unless a rash of injuries befall the nucleus of his team, Dwayne Casey can probably start to focus on postseason positioning once it gets past Valentine's Day.

Portland's Northwest Division Lead Isn't Safe

Along with Toronto, the Trailblazers were 10 up on second place entering Tuesday's slate of contests. But, to be fair, they had a bit of a head start. Don't get me wrong. I'm very impressed with them. Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge are studs, if not stars. However, when Kevin Durant misses the first 17 games of a season, that'll leave a mark. When Russell Westbrook misses 14 of the first 16 games of a season, that'll leave a mark. That's what Oklahoma City had to wade through during the vast majority of November.

The Thunder ended up with a 4-12 record before Westbrook's return on November 28th. In that same timeframe, the Blazers jumped out to a 12-3 record, putting them 7.5 games ahead of the perennial division power. OKC has forged their way back to even at 20-20 (despite Durant missing an additional six games in late December). If you follow basketball, you understand that a healthy Thunder squad battle's for the top seed in the West. Scott Brooks' squad appears to be getting whole as the second half goes into motion.

The teams won't meet again for more than a month. If, at that point, the Thunder chop the deficit under five games, a February 27th showdown could be a pivot point for the rest of the campaign.

Washington Will Win the Southeast Division

I think the Atlanta Hawks are for real. I believe that the system Mike Budenholzer has implemented will keep them near the front of the division title and conference top seed races. For some reason, though, I'm still a bigger fan of how the Wizards are constructed. Their stout backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal is the best in the division. The front-court added some depth after picking up DeJuan Blair. And Paul Pierce is filling the role of "savvy veteran" quite nicely.

I believe there's one obstacle between them and the franchise's first division crown since 1978-1979 ... winning away from home. Along with their current 13-game winning streak, the Hawks own the best road record in the NBA (17-5). The Wizards are just OK outside of the Beltway (11-8). You would have to expect a cool-down from Atlanta, and if Randy Wittman's squad can raise that road win percentage to 65% or better, that should be enough to break this long-standing drought.

Cleveland Will Be Closer to Milwaukee Than Chicago By Season's End

I know. This seems ludicrous. The latest iteration of "The Big Three" are having some issues gelling, but they'll turn it around by mid-April, right? Monday night's demolition of the Bulls shows how great this Cleveland crew can be. If you think back to the first season of the "Big 3" Heat, there was a feeling out period before LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh became a force that would land them in four consecutive NBA Finals (including that same 2010-2011 season). The stat that may have may helped that team out isn't really showing up for this year's Cavs.

The '10-'11 Heat were a good defensive squad, holding opponents to 94.6 ppg (6th-best in the league that season). The current rendition of the Cavs weren't supposed to shut people down ... and it shows. They're currently allowing 100.5 ppg (19th in the Association). In the world of team athletics, it's usually standard that no matter how many cold spells an offense goes through, a good defense can stall long enough to get the rhythm back. I'm not sure (even if and when Iman Shumpert gets healthy) that this time can defend well enough to keep pace with the front-running Bulls.

The Southwest Division Will Max Out Their Playoff Card

I've been definitive throughout this entire column, so I have to take a wild stance on this group as well. Since the Association expanded to 30 franchises and went to a six-division format (2004-2005), there has been one instance where all five division rivals made the postseason. In 2006, each of the Central Division teams qualified for the playoffs, with Milwaukee sneaking in as the eighth seed.

This season's Southwest Division is loaded. Memphis has hit a lull, but they still hold the third slot in the conference standings. Just one-half game back of the Grizzlies, you'll find both Dallas and Houston. The Spurs aren't certain that they'll continue their title defense yet. However, San Antonio is comfortable right now in the seventh slot. At the moment, Phoenix is four games ahead of New Orleans (with OKC sitting ahead of the Pelicans). The Suns are determined to get back the postseason after barely missing out last April. But, if I have to make a bold prediction, I figure this would be the boldest one of all (within reason).

The biggest hinderance to this prediction coming true won't be the play of the Suns or Thunder. It'll be the health of Pelicans' star Anthony Davis. The emerging power forward is currently dealing with a sprained toe. If this leads to him missing any significant time, I don't see New Orleans making enough of a push. But, if he can stay on the court, he gives the Pelicans an inside force that can provide a counterbalance to the outside presence of the other contenders. (Yes, I know that I'm contradicting myself from the Northwest Division part of this monologue, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for both instances to happen.)

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 3:25 PM | Comments (0)

January 19, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Preview

Five Quick Hits

* We all know the importance of a good quarterback, but how about a great cornerback? We'll get a Super Bowl matchup of Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis, the best CBs of 2014, and the best of this generation.

* Jermaine Kearse, who caught the game-winning touchdown for Seattle, was also targeted on all four of Russell Wilson's interceptions.

* Speaking of Wilson's interceptions, the first two were both made by Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, both returned over 25 yards, and both returns partially neutralized by 15-yard penalties on Green Bay.

* Congratulations to this year's finalists for the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award: Anquan Boldin, Thomas Davis, and Aaron Rodgers. This is the second year in a row Davis has been a Finalist. Charles Tillman won last season.

* I'm sure it was an accident, but Terry Bradshaw dissed Walter Jones and Cortez Kennedy when he called Steve Largent the Seahawks' only Hall of Famer.

Championship Roundups

Seattle Seahawks 28, Green Bay Packers 22 (OT)

The opposite of the late game, with a riveting fourth quarter that was probably the highlight of the postseason. If you're any kind of football fan (other than a Packer Backer), you've got to love that frantic finish. After the teams combined for 23 points in the first three quarters, they scored another 27 in the fourth quarter and overtime. Troy Aikman called it "as improbable of a win as I've ever witnessed."

There are 100 things that could have gone differently and Green Bay would have won, but the narrative has to be the Packers' failure to capitalize on opportunities, and in particular the conservative coaching of Mike McCarthy. The Packers finished this game with five field goals and one touchdown. The Packers were substantial underdogs, on the road against the best team in the NFL. From that context, you've simply got to take chances, and McCarthy did the opposite. Michael Strahan chided the strategy on the postgame show: "You always play to win, don't play not to lose." McCarthy played not to lose, with predictable results.

On back-to-back drives in the first quarter, McCarthy passed up 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line to attempt 18-yard field goals. Both tries were successful, but that exceptional field position yielded only 6 points. Let's say the Packers go for it, both times. They score a TD the first time and get stuffed the next. Now they have 7 points (instead of 6) and they've pinned the Colts at their own 1-yard line, instead of the 20 or so. That's a much better result. After the second field goal, Aikman groaned, "Packer fans are cringing right now." Against a great team like Seattle, you have to make the most of opportunities — and field goals don't count.

Contrast McCarthy's timidity with the boldness that led to Seattle's first touchdown, a fake field goal on 4th-and-10. The losing team tried to play it safe, nothing risky, while the winning team had a fake field goal, an onside kick, and a two-point conversion. The idea that conservative, take-no-chances coaching is a winning strategy against good teams has been so thoroughly debunked, it's infuriating that coaches still put it into practice.

Everything that could be expected to go Green Bay's way did so. The Seahawks had turnovers, penalties, injuries to star players. The Packers failed to turn those opportunities into a substantial lead. Early in the second quarter, Joe Buck marveled that the Packers were "winning every phase of this game so far." A partial summary of Green Bay's dominance:

* At the end of the first quarter, the Packers had more possessions (4) than the Seahawks had yards (3).

* Halfway through the second quarter, Green Bay had more points (16) than Seattle had yards (11).

* Russell Wilson began the game 0-for-6, and at halftime, he was 2/9 for 12 yards, with 3 interceptions, a passer rating of 0.0, and 2 sacks. Halfway through the game, that's more interceptions than completions. His first completion took more than 26 minutes. Holy smokes.

* Seattle's first half possessions yielded four turnovers and two three-and-outs.

* All-pro safety Earl Thomas missed most of the second quarter and played the second half with a dislocated shoulder. All-pro cornerback Richard Sherman played the fourth quarter with one arm.

* The Seahawks had seven pre-snap penalties, though two of them were declined. That's not supposed to happen at home.

On a day when the Seahawks played undisciplined, when their two biggest defensive stars got injured, when Russell Wilson had perhaps his worst day as a pro, on a day when Seattle committed 5 turnovers, the Packers scored one touchdown and kicked five field goals, and it wasn't enough.

New England Patriots 45, Indianapolis Colts 7

The first half was close, if not exactly competitive. The Patriots were missing a couple of starters, Rob Gronkowski was held without a catch, and Tom Brady threw an interception. The second half was a runaway for New England.

This game was a mismatch. The Patriots were the much better team, they're a bad matchup for the Colts, and Indianapolis was not up to the moment. Maybe it was the context of an AFC Championship Game, or maybe it was heavy rain in New England in January. The Colts were never likely to win, but they didn't play as well as they could have or should have.

What I found most remarkable was the Colts' continued inability to stop New England's run game. When these teams met in last year's divisional playoff, LeGarrette Blount rushed for 166 yards and 4 TDs. When they met in Week 11, Jonas Gray rushed for 199 yards and 4 TDs. And on Sunday, Blount rushed for 148 yards and 3 TDs. The Colts had below-average run defense this season, but slightly below-average, and the Patriots just destroyed them. It didn't look like scheme, it just looked like New England physically dominated at the line of scrimmage. The Patriots used funky formations and extra linemen — which I guess is scheme, though it went beyond that — and once Blount got to the second level nobody could tackle him, or at least not without him falling forward for an extra few yards.

I wrote last week, "What the Colts really need is a stellar offensive performance." The Patriots were bound to put up points one way or another, but the Colts had a chance in a shootout. Instead, they finished with just 209 yards of offense. Andrew Luck went 12/33 for 126 yards and 2 picks, a career-low 23.0 passer rating.

Luck wasn't the only quarterback to struggle this weekend. Russell Wilson went 14/29 with 4 INT and a 44.3 rating, while Aaron Rodgers had 178 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, and a 55.8 rating. But in four career games vs. New England, Luck is now 82-of-163 (50.4%) for 1,094 yards, 6 TDs, 10 INT, and a 58.7 passer rating. Yikes. Luck now has 12 interceptions in 6 playoff appearances. It wasn't the difference in Sunday's 38-point blowout, but he's got to take better care of the ball.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XLIX: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
Glendale, Arizona
February 1, 2015

For the second year in a row, we get the best possible matchup: the top seed in the AFC versus the top seed in the NFC. This is the game I wanted to see three weeks ago, and that's even more true after New England looked so strong in the AFC Championship Game.

It's a matchup of Super Bowl-winning head coaches and quarterbacks, an old dynasty versus a potential new dynasty, a great offensive team against the league's best defense ... lots of intriguing elements even beyond that we've got the two best teams in the NFL. So what should we expect two weeks from now?

NEW ENGLAND ON OFFENSE

The Patriots' greatest strength is their versatility. They can certainly win through the air with Tom Brady, but they've also proven that they're willing and able to win on the ground, which is probably the better plan against Seattle. The Seahawks have a great run defense (3rd in yards, 2nd in average), but you'll take your chances against it if that means not throwing against the top-ranked pass defense in the league. What may work to New England's advantage is its ability to both run and pass from effectively from the same formations.

If I were Pete Carroll and Dan Quinn, I'd work really, really hard on the unusual formations the Patriots have shown the last two weeks, with running backs and tight ends reporting as ineligible receivers and tackles reporting eligible. Defensive confusion on even one of those plays could be the difference in a competitive game, if it yields a big play or a critical first-down conversion. Conversely, if Seattle can take advantage of a four-man offensive line to hit Brady, New England's strength could quickly become a liability. The Seahawks should also prepare for a trick play like the pass by Julian Edelman in the divisional round.

The wild card is health. Richard Sherman injured his elbow against Green Bay, and Earl Thomas dislocated a shoulder. Both expect to play in the Super Bowl, and I'd be shocked if they didn't. But if one or both are noticeably off, Brady will take advantage.

Seattle allowed only 6.5 points per game over the final six weeks of the regular season, but gave up 17 to Carolina — their most since November 16 — and 22 to Green Bay. It's possible the Seahawks peaked too early.

SEATTLE ON OFFENSE

The plan against Seattle is simple, in theory: contain Marshawn Lynch and keep Russell Wilson in the pocket. All the Seahawks will tell you their receivers are underrated, but those guys don't scare you. Lynch and Wilson scare you.

The Seahawks need to keep Lynch involved. It's just a matter of time until he breaks one of those Beast Mode runs, and while they seem to happen more often in the second half, Lynch should touch the ball on every offensive series. Wilson's versatility creates problems for opponents. He's a dangerous passer, a dynamic runner, and he keeps his eyes downfield when he's on the move, so you can never abandon either responsibility. Wilson didn't move around much against Green Bay, and that needs to change in the Super Bowl. Whether it's zone read or scrambles and bootlegs, the Seattle offense is most dangerous when Wilson is mobile.

Six years ago, the Patriots got embarrassed by Miami's wildcat offense. The Seahawks can do the same thing, except that Wilson throws a lot better than Ronnie Brown. However, the Seahawks do make mistakes. Wilson committed 4 turnovers against Green Bay, and the Patriots' defense is probably a little better than the Packers' defense. Wilson doesn't really seem to get flustered, but if the Patriots can put him under pressure or confuse him, they could probably force a couple of turnovers.

Seattle is not an optimal matchup for the Patriots, because the Seahawks' strengths play away from Darrelle Revis. New England doesn't win this game by shutting down Doug Baldwin. It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, arises from the matchup between Patriots cornerback Brandon Browner and his former team. If it's an advantage one way or the other, I might lean toward Seattle, who knows Browner's strengths and weaknesses and might be able to exploit something.

SPECIAL TEAMS

I don't see an obvious advantage here. Both teams have good kickers, New England's Stephen Gostkowski probably a little better. Both have decent punters, Seattle's Jon Ryan probably a little better. The Patriots have a more explosive return game, and special teams ace Matthew Slater on the coverage squad, so I guess that's an edge for New England. I don't foresee this game turning on special teams, but if it does, I'd bet on either a fumble, or a big return by Julian Edelman.

THE FORECAST

The Patriots dominated the AFC Championship Game, while the Seahawks struggled badly against the Packers and were lucky to advance. It's wise not to read too much into that. The same thing happened last year: the Broncos coasted in the AFC Championship Game, while the Seahawks played a tough game against the 49ers. Let's also keep in mind that the Packers are probably a tougher matchup than the Colts were.

If the Patriots win, it will be with dynamic offense that keeps the Seahawks off-balance. I wouldn't look for big plays so much as a relentless up-tempo attack, grinding out first downs. We saw on Sunday that New England is happy to run the QB sneak, even on second down: it's all about extending drives. I'd also look for more of Josh McDaniels' unusual formations, mixing eligible and ineligible receivers to put the defense off-balance. Depending on the status of Sherman and Thomas, the Patriots could take advantage of openings in the secondary. Defensively, the Pats win by preventing long runs and by generating turnovers. If Lynch never breaks one of his signature runs, and Wilson isn't a difference-maker running the football, the Seahawks will struggle to score points, and field position is just critical against the Seattle defense, so turnovers are critical.

If the Seahawks win, look first and foremost for big plays from their defense. If they're putting pressure on Brady, or they frustrate him with a couple early turnovers, this game could get ugly. The Seahawks want to limit New England's ground game and take away Rob Gronkowksi. The rest of the offense doesn't scare you. Offensively, Seattle wants to get Lynch going. The priority with Wilson is limiting turnovers. If he plays a clean game and Lynch rushes for 100 yards, the Seahawks will win.

This is a great matchup, and that makes it tough to predict. The initial betting line is pick 'em, which is unusual, and reflects the extremely close nature of the matchup. Richard Sherman will have an MRI on elbow today. That's the wild card that worries me, the health of Earl Thomas and Sherman. Subtract (or badly diminish) one or two of the best players on that team, and the Patriots become obvious favorites. But I bet against Seattle last year, and the team is just so resilient, I can't do it again. The Seahawks win, 24-20. Defense controls the game, but there's no single star, so Marshawn Lynch wins Super Bowl MVP (and reporters cringe).

Bonus prediction: Katy Perry and Lenny Kravitz both doing the Super Bowl halftime show is worse than either one doing the show individually.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:06 PM | Comments (2)

January 15, 2015

NFL Weekly Predictions: Conf. Championships

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Green Bay @ Seattle (-7½)

The Seahawks stormed past the Panthers 31-17 in the divisional round, led by Russell Wilson, who passed for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns. Seattle will host the Packers in the NFC Championship.

"Russell is a big-time player," Pete Carroll said. "That should be apparent by now. Russell doesn't always get the credit he deserves, especially when it comes to street credit. Some people say he's not 'black' enough. Forget that. If you're talking about Russell's leadership and athletic ability, 'color' me impressed. Russell has a nose for the goal line. Heck, we should call him 'Ghet-to the End Zone.'

"It will be a turf war against the Packers. I'm not saying there are gang affiliations, but if there were, we'd be the 'Bloods,' and the Packers would have to be the 'Crips.' Aaron Rodgers specifically. Rodgers' calf is the most talked about farm animal in Green Bay since Brett Favre's 'hog.'"

The Packers advanced with a thrilling 26-21 win over the Cowboys, helped by an overturned call on a play originally ruled a Dez Bryant reception late in the fourth quarter.

"This isn't the first time we've seen this," Aaron Rodgers said. "No, I'm not talking about Calvin Johnson. I'm talking about a No. 88 for the Cowboys charged with 'possession.' I think Michael Irvin's was also 'dropped.' Dez didn't complete the process, as they say. But, if a Cowboy gets taken to the police station, the cops will 'complete the processing.'

"In any case, we're going to the NFC Championship Game. This is the first time in three years that San Francisco won't be in the NFC title game. But former Giants great Barry Bonds has been kind enough to appropriately lend us a well-deserved asterisk.

"This was my 'Willis Reed' moment. My injured calf left me nearly immobile, but I toughed it out like a champion. I may be a quarterback, but that doesn't mean I can't be credited with having a 'huge sack.' My balls are enormous. I call them 'Hanz and Franz.' Now, I'm not sure if my calf will hold up against the Seahawks. It's the 'Region of Gloom' against the 'Legion of Boom.'"

Do the Packers have a chance with Rodgers' mobility limited against arguably the NFL's most aggressive defense? The Seahawks will commit no more than four rushers to pressure Rodgers with the knowledge that he won't, or can't, run. That leaves seven defenders in coverage. One of those seven is Richard Sherman, whom Rodgers has vowed not to avoid. One of two things will happen: Rodgers will be shut down, or Sherman will be shut up.

After a relatively quiet first half, Marshawn Lynch busts a 58-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter, sealing the Seattle victory. The CenturyLink Stadium crowd goes berserk, and another "Beastquake" is born. Lynch later hooks up with Liam Neeson, and the two star in a short film, "Quake'n 3." Lynch is mostly silent in the clip, but does have some memorable lines, one about a "particular set of Bills," his old teammates in Buffalo, and a "particularly set of pills," a large bag of Skittles.

Seattle wins, 29-18.

Indianapolis @ New England (-7)

The Patriots vanquished the Ravens, 35-31, overcoming two 14-point deficits to reach their fourth consecutive AFC Championship Game. New England passed for 418 yards, while rushing for only 14 yards.

"You can't run on the Ravens," Tom Brady said. "You can run from them, once you catch a pass. The Ravens' defensive backs were making sure they didn't get beat deep. In other words, they were 'cheating.'

"The Ravens are understandably upset, mostly because they went down like a doomed elevator. Or that the NFL's 'best' quarterback lost. John Harbaugh is claiming we skirted the rules with some substitutions we made. That's a baseless accusation. The Patriots reputation where rules are concerned is spotless. The last time Bill Belichick 'pulled a fast one,' it was benching Randy Moss back in 2009. Now, if you're looking for the best team from Saturday, there's no substitution.

"We are certainly up to the challenge Luck brings to the game. He's quite an athlete. You have to be to buckle a chin strap over that beard. If that's Luck's playoff beard, I would be doing him a disservice by not beating the Colts, so he can clean that up. Trust me, I'm married to a Brazilian supermodel — I know the importance of a clean shave."

The Patriots will face the Colts, who upset the favored Broncos and Peyton Manning 24-13 in Denver. Andrew Luck reached his first AFC Championship Game, handing Manning his second home divisional round loss in three years.

"Okay," Luck said, "so maybe Manning wasn't himself. Or was he? This is the playoffs, after all. I'm the latest opponent to play 'Pin the 'L' on the Broncos.' Apparently, Manning had been playing with a torn quad muscle. This may seem like a dumb question, but is the quad in the arm? No? Well, quad or no quad, I'm still the 'best man on campus' as far as the Denver area is concerned.

"We don't mind being in the role of underdog. In fact, we relish it. We're seven-point underdogs, but unlike John Harbaugh, you won't hear us complaining about an 'unbalanced line.'

"I like our chances against the Patriots. Our coaching staff has a great game plan. Bill Belichick was out-coached for 55 of 60 minutes against the Ravens. That's five fewer minutes than John Fox was out-coached every game."

The play of tight ends will be crucial on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. While both Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener can make an impact, Rob Gronkowski is twice as good as both of them. Indianapolis will suffer the same fate the Cowboys did in Green Bay — they'll get "Robbed."

Can Luck do the impossible and complete the "Andy Dalton/Peyton Manning/Tom Brady" gauntlet? He's two-thirds of the way there, and, as Meatloaf once said, "Two Out of Three Ain't Bad." But what does Meatloaf know? And, for that matter, what does "Pot Roast" know? Terrence "Pot Roast" Knighten guaranteed a Denver Super Bowl win. The Pats will find weaknesses in the Indy defense, choose one, and exploit it.

Gronkowski hauls in 9 passes for 135 yards and 2 scores, carrying the Pats to a 34-24 win and a spot on the cover of the Boston Globe under the headline "Tote 'em, Pole."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:56 PM | Comments (0)

January 14, 2015

The 2014 Season: Five Things We Learned

Ohio State proved a lot of doubters wrong, myself included.

They lost to Virginia Tech. They survived Penn State. They struggled with Indiana and fought off a valiant effort from Michigan. Yet the Buckeyes conquered the college football world with offensive and defensive lines that just kept getting better, a battery ram of a running back named Ezekiel Elliott, and a third string quarterback that looked every bit like a seasoned veteran.

So, with the first ever College Football Playoff trophy headed to Columbus, what did we learn from this season?

Let's start with the most obvious: love him or hate him, Urban Meyer can coach. He delivered an undefeated season in Utah. He won two titles at Florida and now he's brought a title to Ohio State. The depth of the Buckeyes, notably at quarterback, was simply astounding. Ohio State threw a lot of fresh bodies when they could against the high speed Oregon attack. The result? While Oregon usually is the fresher team that overwhelms their opponents in the fourth quarter, the Buckeyes gave the Ducks a piece of their own medicine. Nick Saban will have to take a step back for now; Meyer's the guy to beat.

Most of the media, along with fans all over the country, declared this year as the end of the SEC, which now has to settle for having won eight of the last 10 national titles. While the first national title game in the playoff era lacked a certain Southeast flavor, it's premature to announce the ultimate demise of the SEC. The league had one great team in Alabama and a lot of very good, just not great teams following in line, similar to the Pac-12, who had a great team in Oregon and then a lot of very good, but not great teams behind. The Big 10 had one awesome team in Ohio State, a great team in Michigan State and some good teams down from that.

What does that tells us? There's no doubt that the rest of the country has caught up to the SEC and that an era of dominance the league had during the BCS era will be nearly impossible for any league to match in the playoff era. The league did go 7-5, 2-2 against the Big Ten in bowls, 1-1 against them in the regular season. They're down, just not out.

The league that is down? The Big 12. Yes, TCU showed they were certainly worthy of a spot in the college football playoff, but other than that, what did that conference do? Oklahoma State was the only other team in the conference to win a bowl game. Clemson humiliated Oklahoma. Arkansas went to the Texas Bowl and stomped Texas in the process. West Virginia lost to A&M, joining Texas Tech in the "0-2 vs. the SEC" column. Kansas State put up a fight, yet still lost. Finally, Baylor, fresh off the burn of not gaining one of the four coveted playoff spots, choked a big lead against Michigan State. So, the Big 12 for 2015 looks to be TCU, Baylor behind them and then a free for all afterwards.

Fast, no-huddle offenses are all the rage in college football right now. However, we learned again this season that, without a solid defense, those offenses can win you games but not titles. Oregon struggled mightily against Ohio State's defense, especially in the red zone. Last year's runner-up, Auburn, struggled as well defensively, causing them to limp through the end of the season. Gus Malzahn has figured it out, bringing in Will Muschamp to shore up his defensive woes. The question for Oregon will be what to do on defense to finish the championship quest that still eludes them. One solution? Maybe both teams should look into how TCU molds athletes into solid defensive players; it could solve problems quicker than expected.

Finally, what we learned is that the College Football Playoff needs to go to eight teams and soon. TCU finished third in the final polls, yet it's tough to see where they could've fit into one of the final four spots when the selections were made. Alabama, ranked No. 1, had to have a spot. Oregon, ranked No. 2, had to have a spot. Florida State, as the only undefeated team, had to be in. Ohio State won the title. It's hard to argue with the members of the CFP selection committee for their selections. Yet, the thought of Ohio State vs. TCU is way too good to pass up. Eventually, four won't be enough. Eight will be.

We're a little over seven months away from the start of a new season and new, passionate debates to argue about the future of the sport. However, you have to hand it to the 2014 season. For sheer entertainment, it delivered.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

January 13, 2015

The Other Guys

As casual college basketball fans turn their attention to the 2014-2015 season, they will see a familiar face near the front of the pack. In the gentle Southern winter, a blue juggernaut of impressive talent is getting ready for March.

Oh, and Kentucky is pretty good, too.

The calendar has flipped, new semesters have started, and Duke is one of the country's best teams, but the vibe this year is different. With the excitement, both real and manufactured, surrounding the Wildcats, this edition of Blue Devils has evaded notice as much the program reasonably can.

Before losing at NC State on Saturday, Duke opened the season with 14 wins and rose to No. 2 in the polls, including two wins against last year's Final Four. In a different year, compared to a different rival assemblage, this Duke team might hear whispers about its own collective greatness.

(Let me take a moment to apologize to the good people of Charlottesville, VA. Their Cavaliers remained unbeaten with an impressive win at Notre Dame Saturday. This hot start comes a year after Virginia won both the ACC Conference Tournament and the regular season title — outright by two games, I will add — on the way to a well-deserved No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. And yet, they will be overlooked in this comparison as a symptom of just how much traditional powers like Duke and Kentucky dominate college basketball.)

Of course, Duke's secondary position is not purely the product of poor timing. John Calipari gleefully (and smartly) allows his rotating parade of seasonal talent to represent Kentucky basketball. While the Wildcat roster violently turns over like a canoe in a hurricane, Calipari's annual act undeniably attracts talent and delivers loaded results.

While not diametrically opposed to this player-centered approach, Duke basketball identifies more heavily with its impossibly-dark-haired coach. While the Blue Devils certainly now embrace one-and-done talent, if begrudgingly, one never feels like the program is branded as a high-volume, short-occupancy stable.

Mike Krzyzewski's Duke is a unicorn in the current sports climate. Marriages of programs and individual coaches metamorpihize through increasingly rapid and inevitable lifecycles. Most never reach the hopeful expectations quietly whispered at inception, and those that do reach lofty heights often regress to a place of shame within the shadow of that past summit.

Krzyzewski's Duke, in contrast, has reached full maturity. The program displays a reliable consistency, both in performance and culture. Sure, now and then the Blue Devils have two digits in their ranking or slip surprisingly in the tournament's opening weekend, but the program finds its way back to top fives and Final Fours quickly enough. Beyond the court, we will be reminded of the players' academic load, the Cameron Crazies, and Krzyzewski's Team USA side gig. The concept of "Duke" is so clearly defined at this point that even the hottest-sports-taker looks to Durham and shrugs.

Everyone has an opinion of Duke, and they're all bored of it.

Think about how unique this circumstance is. Today, hundreds of college and professional sports teams have multiple devoted blogs in addition to traditional beat coverage, and the loudest and most hysterical voices set the agenda. For most coaches, a single blunder can push out dozens of other data points. Nearly every coach is threatened by the tyranny of the recent.

But not Krzyzewski. At this point, everything has been said.

Glowing character pieces and meta-industry philosophy pieces? It's been done.

Bullying officials and exuding smarm? Find a new angle.

This is at least partly why a squad from one of college basketball's most elite programs can blaze through its first two months, including those wins at Wisconsin and against defending-champ UConn, and barely gain mention. This is what we expect.

And yet, there should be enough sophistication within the sport for fans to consider storylines beyond the obvious, Kentucky's challenge to 1976 Indiana's legacy. As the Wildcats' narrow escape Saturday against Texas A&M shows, undefeated seasons are hard. There is so much more to this season than hoping for the narrow likelihood of total domination, and what if the Cats fall short of that lofty mark?

"Duke is Duke," as former Clemson coach Pete Gillen once said. But that doesn't mean this Duke is unworthy of our attention.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 7:55 PM | Comments (0)

January 12, 2015

NFL 2014-15 Divisional Weekend

Five Quick Hits

* Bob Costas isn't a fan of football so much as he's a fan of hearing Terrell Suggs refuse to call opponents by name. Costas wets his pants a little every time Suggs calls Hines Ward "86" or Tom Brady "the quarterback of the New England Patriots."

* NBC sent all 10 of its on-camera personalities to Foxborough. I understand why Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, and Michele Tafoya were there, but I'm not sure what was gained by flying Costas, Ward, Dan Patrick, Tony Dungy, and Rodney Harrison to Massachusetts, and I'm certain there was no reason to make Mike Florio and Peter King stand in the cold. The viewer gains nothing from taking all those guys out of the studio.

* What was going on during Tafoya's postgame interview with Julian Edelman? Some really awkward stutters and pauses in there.

* NFL teams with coaching vacancies have been refreshingly patient this year. Rex Ryan will apparently be the next head coach of the Buffalo Bills, and that's the first opening filled, with five remaining. It makes sense not to rush such an important decision, especially since many of the most appealing candidates have been unavailable while their teams compete in the playoffs.

* Speaking of which, Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak announced Sunday that he will remain with Baltimore for the 2015 season, despite several teams interested in him as a head coach.

Divisional Roundups

New England Patriots 35, Baltimore Ravens 31

This was a weird, streaky game, featuring four separate streaks of back-to-back touchdowns by the same team. New England's second half was especially remarkable: three 70-yard touchdown drives, and three three-and-outs. There's been some minor controversy about Tom Brady's 14-yard pass to Michael Hoomanawanui, on which running back Shane Vereen reported as a tackle — an ineligible receiver — and lined up in the slot. The Ravens were confused and gave up the completion. A few relevant points:

1. The ploy with Vereen was cheap trickery, but it's within the rules. The Patriots exploited a loophole — a loophole that the league should probably address — but they didn't cheat.

2. John Harbaugh says he was mostly upset that Baltimore wasn't given a chance to substitute after learning which player was ineligible.

3. This was a non-scoring play on 2nd-and-6. It was a nice play for New England, but it wasn't a game-deciding moment.

Both offensive coordinators, New England's Josh McDaniels and Baltimore's Gary Kubiak, were praised for their work in this game, but by the same token, you have to be disappointed with some of the defensive play. The Patriots brought absolutely zero pass rush pressure, and they repeatedly gave up long runs to Justin Forsett (129 yards, 5.4 average). They held Baltimore to 1/9 on third down, but the Ravens went 3/3 on fourth downs. Baltimore actually did a great job shutting down New England's run game (13 att, 14 yds), but their own pass rush was disappointing (2 sacks), they couldn't stop Rob Gronkowski, and they got burned by multiple trick plays. Both teams gave up at least 28 first downs, 400 yards, and 30 points.

The Patriots didn't blitz much, but the lack of pressure was a real problem: you can't give up more than 30 points and celebrate the defensive game plan. New England's secondary is good enough to take some risks and bring a few more blitzes.

Seattle Seahawks 31, Carolina Panthers 17

One of the few postseason games this year without a major officiating controversy, but it's a shame that both of Kam Chancellor's leaps on attempted field goal blocks were negated by penalty. In last year's divisional round, the Seahawks beat the Saints despite huge deficits in offensive yardage (409-277) and first downs (25-13). This year's game wasn't as pronounced a gap, but it happened again. Seattle won easily, but the Panthers gained more yards (362-348) and more first downs (21-16). Carolina had a better first down percentage, better red zone percentage, and won time of possession by more than 8:00.

The obvious difference was a pair of Cam Newton interceptions. The first gave Seattle a short field (28 yards) and led to a touchdown, while the other was returned 90 yards for a touchdown. Throughout the game, the Panthers played from behind with regard to field position. They began drives at their own 11, 11, 12, 13, 17, 20, 20, 20, 21, and 21-yard lines. That's an average of the 17, very poor starting position, but the real key is that they never got a short field. In order to score, they had to drive the whole length of the field. Seattle, in contrast, began beyond the 20-yard line on seven of its nine drives, averaging the 35.

Part of the problem for Carolina was punt returner Brenton Bersin. Following a very poor performance against the Cardinals in the wild card round, Bersin fair caught all four Seattle punts this weekend. FOX's John Lynch remarked, "He is not comfortable back there as a punt returner." It was obvious to me, it was obvious to Lynch, and I imagine it was obvious to many other people, but not head coach Ron Rivera or special teams coordinator Richard Rodgers. Bersin didn't cost them the game, but coaches just have to be more alert and proactive with so much on the line.

Green Bay Packers 26, Dallas Cowboys 21

I guess there's no pro-Dallas conspiracy by NFL officiating crews. This week's controversy is more straightforward than last week's. It's the Calvin Johnson rule. Joe Buck actually summed it up well: "Common sense tells you that was a catch," but the letter of the law makes it incomplete. It's a stupid, counterintuitive rule, but it's on the books, and we've all seen it before. I have a pretty strict interpretation of what constitutes "indisputable visual evidence", so I would have let the play stand, but any objective fan can see why the catch was reversed.

Although the second half was exciting, I think FOX made a real mistake by branding this game "Ice Bowl II". The original Ice Bowl is maybe the most famous game in football history: an NFL Championship Game, featuring a legendary dynasty against an up-and-coming dynasty, decided in the final minute by an all-or-nothing QB sneak, and played in weather so cold (-17° F, -48° wind chill) it froze the heating grid beneath Lambeau Field. Sunday's was a good game, and it was chilly. But both the weather and the drama failed to live up to "Ice Bowl" billing. Aren't you supposed to under-promise and over-deliver? FOX did the opposite.

Having said that, I'm going to compare this to a different famous game: December 22, 2003. That was a Monday night game, between the Packers and the Oakland Raiders, won by Green Bay, 41-7. Brett Favre's father had just died, but he passed for 399 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions. One of my memories from that game is how hard Favre's receivers worked for him. The quarterback played well, of course, but his receivers elevated their performances to help the QB.

I saw the same thing on Sunday afternoon. How many tackles did Davante Adams and Andrew Quarless break? How many great catches did we see from Randall Cobb and Adams? Aaron Rodgers did not look sharp in the first half. Whether it was his injured calf, rust from a bye and a week of limited practice, or just a tough Dallas defense that took away Jordy Nelson, Rodgers played below his usual standards. But his linemen gave him ages to throw, while his receivers made circus catches in key situations, and broke sure tackles for big gains, especially in the second half. Rodgers went 9/9 in the fourth quarter. The Elias Sports Bureau reported that as the most attempts without an incompletion in the fourth quarter of any playoff game of the last quarter-century.

Indianapolis Colts 24, Denver Broncos 13

With all the referee controversies this postseason, I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be much fuss about Josh Cribbs' apparent fumble. In the middle of the third quarter, the Broncos were down 21-10 when they punted. Omar Bolden and Colt Anderson smashed into Cribbs, who fumbled, with a recovery by Denver's Andre Caldwell. The officials called it 1st-and-10 for the Broncos at the Indianapolis 30-yard line: a huge momentum swing to put Denver back in the game. The call went to a replay review, and CBS analyst Mike Carey (a former NFL referee) said the call should be confirmed. Instead, Bill Leavy announced that the call was reversed: Colts ball. Carey didn't merely suggest that the call should stand, implying a lack of evidence to overturn; he said the call should be confirmed, meaning conclusive evidence that the call was correct. That's a pretty big disconnect, on a hugely significant play. Andrew Luck was intercepted a few plays later, but compared to the fumble, Denver had lost 46 yards of field position and nearly two minutes.

Let's talk about Peyton Manning: he didn't look right, obviously. It was widely reported that he got healthy during the bye and he felt great, but maybe he was still nagged by injuries. Maybe the bye week made him rusty. Maybe the cold bothered him. Maybe it was just a bad day against a good defense. Maybe he's getting old.

Manning had another great season: 4,727 yards, 39 TD, 101.5 passer rating. He ranked 4th in the NFL in passing yards, 2nd in passing TDs, tied for 3rd in TD/INT differential, 4th in passer rating, 2nd in net yards per attempt, 5th in first down percentage, 1st in sack percentage. Other than Aaron Rodgers, he was probably the best QB in the NFL during the regular season.

But he didn't play well in December, and this is the second year in a row he's looked like something less than himself at the end of the season. It's long been believed that veteran players wear down toward the end of the season, that they can get you to the playoffs but won't win once the tournament starts. Peyton Manning is the oldest QB in the NFL, he's overcome a career-threatening neck injury, he just returned from illness and leg injuries, and he doesn't play indoors any more.

It would be a shame if Manning retires now. He can still play at a high level. He's fun to watch, he's respected around the league, and he's good for the game. You never want to see a legend retire on a sour note, and Manning is close to some significant milestones. If he plays in 2015, Manning will almost certainly surpass 70,000 passing yards for his career, and break Brett Favre's record (71,838), and he'll surpass +300 in TD/INT differential, the only QB in history to do so. He would complete his 6000th pass, and he might break Favre's career completions record. I would never want a player to stick around just so he can hit the milestones, but Manning has a lot to play for besides the numbers. The Broncos are still a very good team, and there's every reason to believe they'll compete for a championship again in 2015. This isn't the right time, or the right way, for him to leave his playing career.

Conference Championship Forecasts

Both conference championship games are regular-season rematches. The Patriots romped over the Colts in Week 11, winning 42-20 in Indianapolis, while the Seahawks handled Green Bay in the Thursday night opener, a 36-16 victory in Seattle.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

I have a really tough time envisioning a Packers win. The game is in Seattle, where the Seahawks never lose, and Green Bay went 4-4 on the road this season. The Seahawks dominated their Week 1 matchup. The Packers struggle against mobile quarterbacks.

I'll be curious to see if the Seahawks blitz Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys didn't; they dropped seven and eight defenders into coverage, and did fall into a couple of sacks when Rodgers couldn't find anyone downfield. I suspect that Seattle will look to create more pressure, test Rodgers' mobility, and trust the Legion of Boom to cover Green Bay's receivers. The other interesting question is how the Packers will treat Richard Sherman. In Week 1, they stayed away from him entirely, but Seattle slid safeties to the other side of the field and took away throwing lanes. This time, Rodgers has to attack Sherman at least a little bit, just to keep the defense honest.

Percy Harvin baffled the Packers in Week 1, and he's gone now. But the home field advantage, the dominance of Seattle's defense the last two months, and Rodgers' calf injury combine to leave me pretty pessimistic about Green Bay's chances. They could win with MVP-level play from Rodgers and some big plays on defense and special teams, but it's an uphill battle in this matchup. Seahawks by 10.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

This will be their fourth meeting of the Andrew Luck era. In 2012, the Patriots won 59-24. In the 2013 postseason, the Pats won 43-22. And in Week 11, Jonas Gray rushed for 199 yards and New England won 42-20. That's a combined 3-0, 144 points to 66 in the Patriots' favor.

So yes, I'm picking New England. I have to believe Indianapolis will be ready to defend the run this time, but that creates openings for Tom Brady, and could make the Colts susceptible to trick plays like we saw against Baltimore. If they're going to compete, what the Colts really need is a stellar offensive performance: big plays, which they flashed against New England last year, and no turnovers.

The Patriots are 8-1 at home, 24-4 over the last three seasons. The Colts are 6-3 on the road this year, 15-12 with Luck at QB. The game is in New England in mid-January, and the Patriots have out-coached and outplayed the Colts in all their previous meetings. I don't expect another 20-point beatdown, but I'll take the Patriots by 10.

2015 Hall of Fame Finalists

The Pro Football Hall of Fame has announced this year's Finalists for induction. It's not as strong a group as usual, but there are still more worthy candidates than the eight-person maximum. My preferences, in order:

1. Marvin Harrison — Third all-time in receptions, fifth in receiving TDs, seventh in receiving yards, and probably the best ever at the toe-tap on the sideline or in the corner of the end zone. The only player in history with four consecutive 1,400-yard seasons, and the all-time leader in single-season receptions, 143.

2. Junior Seau — A legendary conditioning freak, Seau was the oldest linebacker in NFL history, playing 20 seasons and retiring just before his 41st birthday. He made 12 Pro Bowls, a linebacker record until Ray Lewis, and six AP all-pro teams.

3. Kevin Greene — Officially ranks third all-time in sacks (160), behind Bruce Smith and Reggie White, but first among linebackers. He had 10 seasons with double-digit sacks, twice as many as fellow finalist Charles Haley (5).

4. Will Shields — A 12-time Pro Bowler, and a key to the Chiefs' explosive offense in the early 2000s. This is his fourth year on the ballot, and I'm surprised he hasn't been inducted already.

5. Tim Brown — Had nine consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons and ranks among the all-time top 10 in every major receiving category. Brown made nine Pro Bowls, and his receiving alone merits a place in Canton, but he was also a brilliant punt returner (3,320 yds, 10.2 avg, 3 TDs). Brown holds the rookie record for all-purpose yards (2,317) and is the oldest NFL player (35) to return a punt for a TD.

6. Terrell Davis — Only player in history to rush for 2,000 yards and score 20 TDs in the same season, and probably the greatest postseason RB in NFL history. The idea that Davis was just a product of Denver's system doesn't hold up. Davis had three 1,500-yard rushing seasons; neither Olandis Gary nor Mike Anderson ever rushed for 1,500 yards.

7. Don Coryell — Ground-breaking offensive mastermind, the only coach in history whose team has led the NFL in passing offense four consecutive seasons. Although best-known for his success with the San Diego Chargers, Coryell also led the Cardinals to two division titles, and was the last coach in Cardinals history with a winning record (42-29-1). However, Coryell is a Hall of Fame candidate less for his 111 wins and success with two different teams than for his strategic influence on the modern passing game.

8. Morten Andersen — Andersen is the NFL's all-time leading scorer, and his record is not likely to fall any time soon. Adam Vinatieri would probably have to play four or five more seasons to catch him. Andersen was the most accurate kicker of his generation, and he set the career record (since broken) for most 50-yard field goals. He played for 26 seasons, into his late 40s, because teams could still count on him.

9. Tony Dungy — A ground-breaking coach with a Super Bowl ring, an impressive coaching tree, and seven consecutive seasons at 12-4 or better. His teams often struggled in the postseason.

10. Orlando Pace — The first overall pick in the 1997 draft, he lived up to the hype and qualified for seven Pro Bowls. He started at left tackle for one of the great offenses of all time, the Greatest Show on Turf. I always felt he was a little overrated, but he was a good player for a decade, and an anchor on a historic offense.

11. Kurt Warner — Won two NFL MVP Awards and a Super Bowl MVP, but also got benched by three different teams from 2003-06. He passed for 4,000 yards three times, threw 200 TD passes, and has one of the best passer ratings in history (93.7). But he was surrounded by great teammates, and he only played four full seasons: 1999, 2001, 2008, and 2009 were the only years Warner started 12 or more games.

12. John Lynch — Hard-hitting strong safety with both the Buccaneers and Broncos. Lynch was well-liked and high-profile, but I'm disappointed that he's a Finalist and fellow strong safety Rodney Harrison is not. They both deserve HOF consideration, but Harrison was the greater player.

13. Charles Haley — The only five-time Super Bowl winner in NFL history, but he wasn't a consistent impact player and he was a headache in the locker room. Haley was a pass-rush specialist, but he had fewer sacks (100.5) than contemporaries like Jim Jeffcoat (102.5), Trace Armstrong (106.0), Greg Townsend (109.5), Sean Jones (113.0), and Clyde Simmons (121.5). Haley was a very good player, but being on the same teams as Joe Montana and Emmitt Smith doesn't make him a Hall of Famer.

14. Jerome Bettis — Bettis is a nice guy and he was a good teammate. If all you consider is career rushing yards and Chris Berman highlights, Bettis is one of the five or 10 best RBs in history. But he had poor rushing averages, couldn't catch, didn't run-block, and wasn't a great goal-line back. People think of Bettis as a bruising short-yardage runner, but in a 13-year career, he led his own team in TDs only four times. He never led the league in rushing yards, average, or TDs. Bettis is a particularly weak candidate compared to fellow finalist Terrell Davis.

15. Jimmy Johnson — Coached Dallas for five seasons and Miami for four. His teams won two Super Bowls, but the Dolphins never won a division title under Johnson, and the Cowboys' dynasty fell apart quickly — partly because of the feud between Johnson and owner Jerry Jones, and partially because Johnson managed the Cowboys like he did the Miami Hurricanes, and stars like left tackle Erik Williams were allowed to do whatever they wanted. Johnson made no notable strategic contributions to the game, much of the credit for his offense should go to coordinator Norv Turner, and Barry Switzer's Super Bowl victory lent credence to the idea that Johnson's success was a product of the Herschel Walker trade. No Hall of Fame coach has sustained success so little as Johnson, who produced two great years and almost nothing else.

Johnson did deliver the funniest line I've ever heard on a football pregame show. In 2011, Curt Menefee asked Johnson whether, with a gun to his head, he would rather sign Terrell Owens or Tiki Barber. Jimmy answered, "Give me the bullet."

Senior and Contributor Candidates

This year, the 15 "modern" finalists are joined by one Seniors nominee (Vikings center Mick Tingelhoff) and two Contributors (personnel specialists Bill Polian and Ron Wolf). None of the three are competing directly against the players, so I'm listing them separately. All three are outstanding choices, deserving of enshrinement.

Tingelhoff started 240 consecutive games and made seven straight all-pro teams, including five years first-team. Unusually quick for his position, he also started in four Super Bowls. Tingelhoff should have been inducted years ago, and was a superb choice as this year's Senior candidate.

Polian is best known as general manager of the Buffalo Bills from 1984-92, building the foundations of a team that made four straight Super Bowls. In Buffalo, Polian hired Hall of Fame coach Marv Levy, and drafted Hall of Famers Andre Reed, Bruce Smith, and Thurman Thomas. Polian was the first GM of the Carolina Panthers, who went from expansion team to the NFC Championship Game in their second season. Polian then became GM of the Indianapolis Colts, for whom he worked from 1998-2011, overseeing a dozen playoff runs and a victory in Super Bowl XLI. The Sporting News named Polian the NFL’s Executive of the Year a record six times.

Wolf was a personnel man for the Raiders in the '60s, '70s, and '80s — the team's dynasty era. During Wolf's tenure, the Raiders had as many Super Bowls as losing seasons. He is best known, however, as the architect of the 1990s Green Bay Packers. As GM in Green Bay, Wolf hired Mike Holmgren, traded for Brett Favre, signed Reggie White, and drafted Darren Sharper.

I think selecting two contributors per year as finalists is a bad idea, but this year's choices are excellent. I'll be disappointed if any of the three fall short.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:32 PM | Comments (0)

January 8, 2015

NFL Weekly Predictions: Divisional

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Baltimore @ New England (-7½)

The Ravens whipped the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 30-17, and advanced to face the hated Patriots in the divisional round. Joe Flacco passed for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns and the Ravens defense forced 3 turnovers.

"That's right," Terrell Suggs said. "We do hate the Patriots. I hate the Patriots, particularly Tom Brady. We come from different sides of the train tracks. Where I come from, it's easy to get railroaded, particularly by officials.

"It's never easy on the road in the playoffs. But we've beaten New England two of the three times we met in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots want to forget that, because, apparently, they all graduated from 'Recall So Hard University.'

"On that note, for a minimal donation of $50, you can sponsor a future Raven to attend 'Ball So Hard University' in B.S.H.U.'s '50 Dollar Make Me Scholar' program.

"Tom Brady's son was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Brady was born with a yellow flag at his feet. It's the same old story when we play the Patriots: if Brady hits the ground, a flag will soon join him. We're seven point underdogs. See, we're already the victims of 'favoritism.' If there's one 'Tuck Rule' the officials need to follow on Saturday, it should be to keep those flags in their pants."

The Patriots are well-rested after a bye week, and are confident they can send the Ravens packing. With a win, New England will host the winner of the Indianapolis/Denver game.

"We're well-prepared," Brady said. "We know what the Ravens bring to the table, and the last thing we want to be are victims. We've watched a lot of film, some of it obtained from strategically-placed security cameras, and some just good old game film. What we've learned has given us the key to owning the Ravens on Saturday. So Ravens, know that 'big brother' is watching, and so is your daddy.

"John Harbaugh called Flacco the 'best' quarterback in the NFL. That's a wild exaggeration and should not be taken literally. If I was Hispanic, I would say 'hyperb-Olé. If Flacco is the NFL's best QB, then Ray Rice must be the best husband in the NFL.

No one expects anything less than a war on Saturday. It will be a fight. There will be blood. There will be casualties. Police may be involved. Uniforms will be disposed of. Comparisons will be made to Atlanta's Cobalt Lounge.

The Ravens pressured Ben Roethlisberger without much blitzing. They'll have to do the same to disrupt Brady and the Pats offense. That falls on Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Do you think Belichick and the Pats will be prepared for that? And the Ravens secondary has been a weakness all year. There's no Darrelle Revis back there for the Ravens.

Brady throws for 2 touchdowns, one to Rob Gronkowski, and the Patriots advance, 30-20.

Carolina @ Seattle (-10½)

The Panthers earned a road trip to Seattle with a dominating 27-16 win over the visiting Cardinals. Carolina held Arizona to 78 total yards, the fewest ever allowed in a postseason game.

"With such a dominating defensive performance," Ron Rivera said, "a lot of people are asking me, 'How did the Panthers win only seven regular season games?' or 'How did the Cardinals still score 16 points?' or 'Without Luke Kuechly, would the Carolina defense be called the 'Black Panthers?' or 'Is Jerry Richardson's head really that big?' or 'Do I smell smoke?'

"The Cardinals managed only 12 yards in the second half, but enough about their punter. If anyone asks who's responsible for the Cardinals' troubles, just say, 'the Butler did it.' When Arizona kicks Drew Butler to the curb, I'm sure they're expecting him to land much further away than ten yards.

"As for the Seahawks, it's not easy playing at Seattle. It may be the noisiest place in the league. It gets so loud sometimes, you can't even hear Richard Sherman talking. I don't know about the seismographs in the area, but we're not quaking."

The No. 1-seeded Seahawks beat the Panthers 13-9 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 8. With the defenses of both teams peaking right now, another low-scoring affair is expected.

"We're a much better team now than we were then," Pete Carroll said. "And so are the Panthers. I think it's safe to say both teams are playing like a house of fire.

"We have to keep Newton in the pocket and make him throw the ball. Accuracy is not his strong suit, whether in passing, or reporting his knowledge of his father's finances. Newton's made '1' a popular number in the NFL. In college, his most popular number was his account number. But what do I know? To my knowledge, I've never had contact with a parent or parents of a soon-to-be collegiate star. My memory is not what is used to be. I think it conveniently ran a fade pattern.

"Marshawn Lynch is the key to our playoff success. Marshawn speaks softly and carries himself like a big dick. Fortunately for us, he does his talking on the field. Just ask Marshawn, he'll tell you can't see 'The Interview" anywhere. Anyway, our running game is strong. It ran Jim Harbaugh out of town, and it will run the Panthers out of the playoffs."

Prior to kickoff, former Seattle Super Sonic legend Shawn Kemp raises the Seahawks' "12th Man" flag, accompanied by his 11 children. Kemp then joins the game announcers in the FOX booth and makes his game prediction.

"I predict a Seattle win," Kemp says. "And it will be a slam dunk. And they'll defend their Super Bowl title in Arizona on February 5th. They'll continue their 'reign, man.'"

Seahawks win, 19-8.

Dallas @ Green Bay (-6½)

The Packers are favored by 6½ points at Lambeau Field, where temperatures are expected to be in the teens for Sunday's divisional contest against the No. 4 seeded Cowboys.

"'Expected in the teens,' you say," Mike McCarthy said. "Sounds like Jerry Jones' wants and desires on his favorite dating site, dickmagnate.com.

"Aaron Rodgers' calf muscle is healing nicely. But it's still causing him some discomfort. Thanks to what we learned from Ndamukong Suh, the weather in Green Bay should numb it completely.

"We plan to keep the pressure off of Rodgers with our running game. So, the Cowboys can expect a steady diet of Eddie Lacy. Now, in most cases, when you say 'steady diet of Eddie Lacy,' you think 'a double cheeseburger for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.' Not in this instance. I mean 20-25 carries for Eddie. And I expect him to flourish. If there's one thing we know about Eddie, it's that he can carry the load, because he is the load."

The Cowboys won their first playoff game in five years, holding off the Lions 24-20. Tony Romo threw 2 TD passes to Terrence Williams, while the Dallas defense forced three Matthew Stafford turnovers.

"It was a great day for America's Team," Romo said. "It made fans of the 'Boys, and certain officials, want to 'pick up the flag.' But we can't let controversial calls put a downer on our celebration, can we? There's been enough 'interference' for one day.

"Our last playoff game in Green Bay was the Ice Bowl in 1967. I guess this one will be called 'Ice Bowl II," or better yet, "Ice Ice," baby. That's when the term 'Frozen Tundra' originated to describe the Lambeau turf. But we won't let the chill deter us. Much like ice, our resolve is solid. Normally, when you say 'freeze' to a Cowboy, he puts his hands up. But we'll bundle up in Green Bay. That means extra thermals, socks, gloves, etc. Heck, Dez Bryant might even wear a hat.

"I'm guessing New Jersey governor Chris Christie will be in Jerry Jones' luxury box at Lambeau. The chubby New Jersey governor is a Cowboys' fan, but his favorite player of all time is the 'Refrigerator.'"

If the Cowboys are wise, they'll mercilessly blitz Rodgers and force him to run and use that gimpy left leg. Will Rodgers and the Packers be ready for it, with quick throws to neutralize the rush and limit situations in which Rodgers has to run? Of course they will.

The Cowboys keep it close, but a late defensive pass interference call goes against the Cowboys, and the Packers hold on to win Packers win, 25-22.

Indianapolis @ Denver (-7)

The Colts handled the visiting Bengals 26-10 last week to set up a rematch of their Week 1 31-24 loss to the Broncos in Denver. Against Cincinnati, Andrew Luck passed for 376 yards and a touchdown, while Adam Vinatieri kicked 4 field goals.

"Everyone needs to just lay off Andy Dalton," Luck said. "Look, it took Bengals legend Norman Julius Esiason five seasons to reach the Super Bowl. Maybe Andy is just a 'late Boomer.'

"Vinatieri was randomly drug tested after the game. Of course, he passed. Adam's urine is just as calm and collected as he is. They call it 'Mellow Yellow.' I'm not sure if Adam is taking anything, but if he is, you can best believe it's got a little kick to it."

"Jim Irsay said he feels we are closer to a Super Bowl title. Jim's got a dream. In it, he wakes up in his car and finds the Lombardi Trophy in his briefcase."

With a win over the Colts, the Broncos would reach their second consecutive AFC Championship. Denver has relied on its running game lately, leading many to question the vitality of Peyton Manning's arm.

"First of all," Manning said, "my arm is fine. Second of all, I don't have any plans to do a DirectTV commercial with "Scrawny Arms" Rob Lowe. The 'Meathead' character? I've already done a commercial with Eli.

"The Bengals sacked Luck only once. Von Miller has promised that Luck won't be so lucky against us. To Miller, an opposing quarterback is not a person, he's a substance, and Von plans to abuse it. Von's as healthy as he's been all year. He's even got a clean bill of health from his personal physician, 'Dr. A. Sample.'"

The Colts' plan is to dare Manning to pass, and that's certainly not the first time the Indianapolis organization has doubted Manning's arm strength. But Manning has something to prove, and prove it he will by reading the Colts' defense like a cheap novel, or the Jacksonville playbook, or Terry Bradshaw's autobiography.

Manning has too many weapons, not including his arm, and the Broncos win, 30-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

January 7, 2015

Thoughts on Tennis Parenting

Recently, the issue of "tennis parenting," a term used loosely to represent everything that involves the dynamics of how parents handle their relationship with their kid who chooses to play competitive tennis, has resurfaced within the last month.

During an ITF tournament in Israel, witnesses by the court side saw 16-year-old player Andrada Surdeanu crying with blood streaming down her nose after her father Lucian slapped her following a loss in the quarterfinals. As if that was not disturbing enough, both Surdeanu and her mother Ioana came to the father's defense. Andrada said that it was normal for her father to punish her and that she "deserved" it. Ioana claimed that Lucian was unjustly mistreated by the Israeli police following the incident, while barely recognizing her husband's excessive act.

Meanwhile, in France the film "Terre battue" (Clay Court) was released across theaters two weeks ago, inspired from the real-life story of a father who would secretly add a drug causing drowsiness into the water of his children's opponents in order to give his children an advantage against their opponents. When one of the opponents ended up dying as the result of one such attempt, the scheme was uncovered and the father headed to jail.

On a different note, Roger Federer spoke to BBC few days ago about the ins and outs of parenting children who play competitive tennis, and vowed that he would never be a "pushy" parent if his kids decided to play competitive tennis. Federer emphasized that youngsters need space from their parents, and spend time alone with their coaches whether in practice or in tournaments. His insight was valuable in that he underlined the distinction between supportive and pushy parents, certainly drawing from his experience with his own parents.

I agree with Federer — and my own experience back in my times as a young tennis player confirms this — that parents need not necessarily travel to every tournament and constantly be around the coach and the kid. At the same time, I must add that this is ideal only if the parents do not have a tennis background and do not therefore understand the game as well as the coach, or even the kid. On the one hand, many parents in this category do a wonderful job of being there for their kid when needed, but know that their role is to provide emotional support and not to get excessively involved in tennis-related discussions that should be left to the coach. On the other hand, a number of parents also suffer from a variation of the "Dunning-Kruger effect" and turn the experience of competition into a miserable one for their kid.

It is important to pinpoint one area that I feel is not adequately represented in the discussions involving tennis parents. Parents that suffer from this problem (often without realizing that they do) need to be told in plain and simple words that for the duration of a practice session, or a match, they are not the parents in the traditional role. Let's detail why parents are unable to resist the temptation of sticking their nose where it does not belong.

Take for example the parents of an 11-year-old kid who is playing competitive tennis. Throughout their kid's life up to that point, parents have made every single decision for their kid, when to eat, what to eat, when to study, when to go to sleep, when to go to the movies, etc. They have gotten addicted to that control, and the kid has gotten addicted to the comfort of knowing that, without both realizing that they have gotten used to that pattern. Now comes the abrupt intrusion of an hour-long practice session, or of a match, and shatters that pattern and its related world of addiction.

As a result, the parents feel an unexpected loss of power. They can't quite get their hands on the matter (the game of tennis), and yet, they watch their kids emotionally suffer or get upset during a period of bad play. Imagine the frustration of the inability to reconcile their unknowingly over-developed "control-freak side" when it comes to every detail concerning their child, with the helplessness that they feel at not being able to do anything about it when their kid is experiencing problems. They have been able to "make it go away" in the past for 11 years, and now all of a sudden, they can't perform what they perceive to be their usual duty.

That is the breaking point where the dynamics between tennis parents and their kid's tennis experience can go sour in a hurry. They can understand and accept their limitations, consider that breaking point as their own "growing pain," and deal with the change properly. Or they can give in to their addiction, their control freak side that has furtively been reinforced over the years, and begin to cause friction by imposing their own unwelcomed intrusion into their kid's tennis-related domain.

Unfortunately, parents are not sufficiently made aware of the inevitable arrival of this specific moment that I referred to as the "breaking point" above. Believe it or not, what may seem crystal clear to the person who reads this, remains a mystery to most tennis parents who do not have a tennis background.

My advice to the coach, or to anyone who is a close friend of such tennis parents, is that they make the parents aware of the tension that this moment will cause at arrival. Explain the process in detail, moment by moment. Believe me, they will need to hear it, probably more than once. Your explanation must be so clear that they must be able to immediately recognize that moment when it rears its head, and they begin to sense the feeling of frustration as a result, announcing the eminent arrival of the breaking point.

It is worthy to note that this moment will occur with every tennis parent, whether they are good ones or bad ones. Parents take care of their kids, help them in any way they can, and guide them in every aspect of their lives as they grow into their teenage years. The inner conflict created by the above breaking point does not define their parenthood, nor does it label them as good or bad parents. However, the way they deal with that temporary loss of control that they previously took for granted, will in turn have an impact on their children's tennis experience, and possibly leave long-term traces on their future perception of the sport.

Also, keep in mind that this article focused on parents that do not have a tennis background and do not have extensive knowledge of the game at a competitive level. As to what happens if they did, it is for another article in the future.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 10:46 AM | Comments (0)

January 6, 2015

No Doubt: These Ducks Are Tough

In just about every sport there is, fans know that there's going to be a fairly wide variance in playing styles. We don't expect the Warriors and Grizzlies to try to win games the same way in the NBA. We don't think that the Seahawks and Patriots will have the same blueprint to win their first playoff games this weekend. The list can go on and on.

In college football, we don't quite expect that either. However, when a program is responsible for throwing past conventions against the wind as Oregon has done in the better part of the last decade, there's perhaps some pushback to be expected, especially in a sport where so much tradition carries the day like it does in college football.

But in the media, over those past years, the pushback against the Ducks and their lack of "toughness" has been excessive. Regardless of whether Oregon takes home the first College Football Playoff title next Monday, it's time to bury all those misconceptions.

If I had a dollar for every time somewhat said or intimated that Oregon's team was soft, finesse, had no physicality, or didn't play any defense over the last few years, well, I'd have a couple extra thousand dollars to my name.

When Chip Kelly came to Oregon as offensive coordinator in 2007 under Mike Bellotti, his brand of ultrahigh-tempo, read-option spread offense was unlike anything high-level college football had ever seen in the days when the read-option and the Wildcat were becoming the trends of the day.

It's worth mentioning that Oregon is not quite the nouveau riche program it's made out to be sometimes. Bellotti had four 10-win-plus seasons and two major bowl games during his tenure. But under Kelly and successor Mark Helfrich, the 10-win seasons and major bowl games have become a minimum expectation. If you haven't figured it out by now, the Ducks have as much or more staying power as any big-name program in the country. Not only should they never, ever have to answer to any questions about their toughness or big-game prowess, they might be the "toughest" team in the country.

When we talk about constructs like toughness in sports, we're more or less using a moving target as a definition, but many fans could probably come to a consensus. For football, I would imagine we'd say defense, ability to control the line of scrimmage and the ability to make big plays at big moments.

With Oregon, none of those characteristics are in question.

For starters, for years now, Oregon has been dominating the line of scrimmage on offense. You just don't put up the kinds of ridiculous rushing statistics or executive read-option blocking schemes with out having a dominant offensive line. You also better believe that Marcus Mariota wouldn't have only thrown his third interception in 408 pass attempts during the Rose Bowl if his protection wasn't so outstanding.

For the defense, sure, the Ducks have had games throughout the years like their contest in October against Cal in which they conceded 41 points and 560 yards of offense. But since that point, Oregon, has only allowed about 17 points a contest. When you consider that the Pac-12 average is almost double that, and that half of the six wins since then were against ranked opposition, the "Oregon doesn't play defense" argument is simply a talking point without any support whatsoever.

And with timely plays, you don't need to look any further than the past two games Oregon has played, the Pac-12 Championship and the Rose Bowl.

Against Arizona in Santa Clara, California, which was a rematch of the Ducks' only loss, Oregon was looking sluggish and mistake-ridden against an even more sluggish and mistake-ridden Arizona team that looked a lot like the December and January Arizona Cardinals' offense. At 13-0 late in the second quarter, Oregon was facing a 3rd-and-15 deep in its own territory, when Mariota connected with Charles Nelson for 73 yards. The Ducks scored a touchdown, and the game was well on its way to a 38-point clobbering.

Generations will forever see the 59-20 score in the Rose Bowl, and think that it was a start-to-finish masterclass. In the first half, Florida State nearly cut Oregon's lead to 2 at the half, when the nation's best kicker, Roberto Aguayo, narrowly missed a 54-yard field goal. At that point, with all the comebacks the Seminoles had successfully pulled off in 2014, one could be forgiven if they thought Florida State would comfortably win and head on to North Texas.

Instead, after the teams traded touchdowns in the early portion of the 3rd quarter, college football fans saw a 34-point blitzkrieg against a team that had won its previous 29 games. And yes, some of Florida State's turnovers were absolutely careless, but Oregon still had the killer instinct to score 5 touchdowns in about 11 minutes of game time. If that's not "tough," I seriously don't know what is.

I'm convinced that some of Oregon's bad rap over these past few years is not only because it's not a traditional big name, but also because their playing style and appearance is so different from the rest of what the classic, conservative sport of college football has been.

After all, Alabama has now lost consecutive Sugar Bowls by giving up a combined 87 points in the two games. However, you'll probably still see them on ESPN and CBS all next year being touted as a "strong defense that shows up in big games" in the "best conference in the country." If Oregon had lost back-to-back Rose Bowls in that fashion, they'd be getting trashed worse than when they lost to really, really good Stanford teams the past few seasons.

Make no mistake, the Ducks' championship test against Ohio State will be an incredibly tough one. I understand why Oregon is a touchdown favorite, but I think the game will certainly be closer.

Ohio State's offense, no matter the quarterback, has been only marginally worse than Oregon's this season. And like Oregon, the Buckeyes have many playmakers on defense that line up against spread, read-option offenses every day in practice. But no matter the result, any questions about the Ducks' toughness should never be asked again.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 6:42 PM | Comments (0)

January 5, 2015

NFL 2014 Wild Card Weekend

The Bengals Lose Again

If the Bengals want to shake a reputation for choking, this is not the way to do it. Andy Dalton was not terrible, but he was bad. Including sacks and rushing, Dalton had 42 plays for 178 yards — 4.2 per play. He had no TDs, a lost fumble, and a 63.4 passer rating. He was playing with a really depleted receiving corps, against a pretty good pass defense, but you just have to produce more offense than that if you expect to win a playoff game.

The announcing team of Jim Nantz and Phil Simms supported Dalton, and I'm sympathetic to their position, but Nantz compared Dalton to Y.A. Tittle, whom he said was the only other QB to make four consecutive postseasons without winning a game. "Did people ever say that Tittle couldn't win big games?" Nantz asked rhetorically. He obviously assumed the answer was no, but yes, they did. Tittle himself wrote in the August 23, 1965, Sports Illustrated, "The football writers began to say that Tittle could not win the big games — I guess by that they meant the championship games. I have won some very big games — and I have lost some, too."

The Tittle comparison doesn't work for several reasons. (1) Tittle is a Hall of Famer. There's no indication that Dalton is on that path. (2) Tittle's teams never won a championship. If you're arguing that we shouldn't judge Dalton by his playoff failures, don't compare him to a guy who never overcame them. (3) Tittle did face criticism for his performance in big games, and he has ever since. Red Hickey, who coached Tittle in San Francisco and created the shotgun formation, explained why he doesn't list Tittle among the great quarterbacks: "Tittle never won a championship ... [Bobby] Layne, as bad as he looked throwing the ball, was a winner."

I believe Andy Dalton is good enough to win a championship. He's not Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers; if Dalton was the best player on a team, that team would never win a Super Bowl. But he's good enough that with the right players around him, Dalton could quarterback a championship team. It's hard to judge him too harshly on a game like this, missing his best wide receiver and his his top tight end.

The idea of firing a head coach and quarterback who have made four consecutive playoff runs seems loony to me.

Wild Card Roundups

Carolina Panthers 27, Arizona Cardinals 16

"This has been a special teams fiasco tonight." ESPN's Mike Tirico said that near the end of this game, and it foreshadowed a weekend full of incredible special teams meltdowns. Let's recap the horror:

Arizona Cardinals

* First quarter: 20-yard punt gives Carolina possession in Cardinals territory
* First quarter: 28-yard punt
* First quarter: 33-yard punt, mercifully mishandled
* Second quarter: 31-yard punt gives Carolina possession at Cardinals' 34-yard line
* Third quarter: 31-yard punt gives Carolina possession at Cardinals' 38-yard line
* Third quarter: Ted Ginn runs out kickoff from 8 yards deep in end zone, tackled at own 8, fumbles, recovered by Carolina at Cardinals' 3-yard line

Jon Gruden and Tirico basically blamed the loss on punter Drew Butler. The offense was equally awful, so that isn't accurate or fair, but Butler punted 9 times, and only two of the nine went over 40 yards, one of them on a bounce following an error by the Panthers' returner.

Carolina Panthers

* First quarter: Brenton Bersin's mishandled punt sets up Arizona TD
* Second quarter: Missed 43-yard FG
* Second quarter: Bersin lets punt bounce, loses 15 yards of field position
* Fourth quarter: 40-yard punt into end zone, touchback (20 yard net)
* Fourth quarter: Brad Nortman fumbles punt snap, rushes for 6 yards on 4th-and-17

Bersin's turnover in the first quarter provided a critical swing of momentum, enough that Carolina's 10-0 lead turned into a 14-13 halftime deficit; the Panthers didn't really recover until the third quarter — in part due to two more special teams miscues.

The only play worse than the litany of special teams disasters was the final one. The Panthers led 27-16 with :03 left on the clock. Down by 11 points with three seconds remaining, it was literally impossible for the Cardinals to win. For reasons totally beyond my understanding, Bruce Arians called for one of those plays with the laterals. You cannot accomplish anything positive at that point. All you can do is get someone hurt, or lose so much yardage that you set a playoff record for worst offense.

The Cardinals haven't been the same since they lost Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, and on Saturday, Arizona's offense was impotent. The Cardinals rushed 15 times for 27 yards (1.8 per carry), while Ryan Lindley's 32 dropbacks produced 51 yards, a touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Rodney Harrison called Lindley "a third-string quarterback who looked scared to death back there." Lindley needed help, and the Cardinals didn't give it to him. The team set a postseason record for fewest yards of offense (78).

The Panthers have now won five games in a row, holding each opponent to under 20 points.

Worst special teams disaster in this game: Ginn's fumbled kickoff return. Bringing a kickoff out of the end zone is a foolish risk. Returners fumble about three times as often as they score touchdowns — it's more likely that your gamble will result in catastrophe than points.

Baltimore Ravens 30, Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Maybe Le'Veon Bell is even more important than we thought. This was Pittsburgh's lowest score in nearly two months, since a Week 10 loss to the Jets. The Steelers' offense, which had been tearing the league apart all season, and the last month in particular, vanished in this game. But when you add Haloti Ngata to the Ravens and subtract Bell from the Steelers, you're talking about different teams than we saw over the past four weeks.

The Steelers' last three drives all ended in turnovers, as we saw the 800th instance of Ben Roethlisberger playing when he was too hurt to help the team — but that was late in the game, when the Steelers were already behind. The Steelers settled for too many field goals, the Ravens converted too many long third downs, and Pittsburgh committed 114 yards of penalties. Just in the last two quarters, you've got two 15-yard penalties and a 32-yard pass interference, plus a critical offensive holding call on Kelvin Beachum, which nullified a 19-yard touchdown pass. Ben got intercepted a few plays later and the drive produced no points. Nail in the coffin.

It's hard not to think the game would have looked a lot different with a healthy Le'Veon Bell on the field. Everyone has injuries — Baltimore's secondary is incredibly beat-up — but Bell is an all-pro, a top-10 MVP candidate, and the Steelers really don't have a backup. They used a lot of Ben Tate, who just signed last week and doesn't know the offense. Tate was in the backfield when the Steelers blew a blocking assignment and nearly got Roethlisberger killed. Bell is a good pass blocker, and he's an explosive playmaker; the offense looked substantially different without that element.

Worst special teams disaster in this game: Baltimore had a punt blocked out of the end zone for safety, but that was late in the fourth quarter, with the result nearly decided. In the second quarter, the Ravens had 12 men on field for a field goal attempt, giving Pittsburgh a first down, and that could have been a big deal if the ball had bounced a little differently later in the game.

Indianapolis Colts 26, Cincinnati Bengals 10

The Colts were a bad matchup for Cincinnati. The Bengals scored fewer points in two games against Indianapolis (10) than in any other game against any opponent this season. That said, it's hard to understand Cincinnati's offensive game plan. With RB Jeremy Hill on a roll, and facing a team whose run defense is suspect, the Bengals gave Giovani Bernard and Hill a combined 16 carries, compared to over 40 dropbacks for Andy Dalton.

Indianapolis didn't look particularly sharp, but the Bengals were simply outgunned. The clear theme of the wild card round was the significance of injuries. The Cardinals played without their top two quarterbacks and couldn't score. The Steelers' offense fell apart without Le'Veon Bell. And the Bengals couldn't generate anything without A.J. Green.

Worst special teams disaster in this game: Late in the third quarter, Adam Jones fielded a kickoff at the back of the end zone, nine yards deep, and ran it out to only the 13-yard line.

Dallas Cowboys 24, Detroit Lions 20

Let's start with the pass interference, get that out of the way. I didn't have a problem with the non-call; in fact, I thought it was a shame that Detroit would get a critical first down on the penalty. A few points, though:

1. I was rooting for the Cowboys. I'm not a Cowboys fan — I grew up hating them — and I have nothing against the Lions. But (1) I picked the Cowboys to win, and I like looking smart; (2) I think it's outrageous that Ndamukong Suh was allowed to play; and (3) the Cowboys played so well at the end of the season, I think the playoffs are more interesting with them advancing to face teams like Green Bay and Seattle.

2. I thought it was a ticky-tack call. Mike Pereira knows a lot more about the rules than I do, and he felt pretty strongly that it was pass interference, but I just didn't see that much contact, and I think we've put way too much into this "guy didn't turn around" thing. Did he actually interfere? It looked borderline to me, and I wouldn't have thrown a flag.

3. If I were a Lions fan, I would probably be pretty pissed. The call itself I believe was borderline, but picking up the flag felt fishy. It's one thing not to call a penalty, but it's another to throw the flag, announce it to the audience, and then change your mind and say it's fourth down.

Controversy aside, Detroit gave this game away in the last 20 minutes. The Lions led 20-7 halfway through the third quarter. Dallas drove, converted a 3rd-and-10, had a touchdown nullified by penalty (which really dents bias accusations and conspiracy theories), and scored a TD anyway: 20-14. The Lions went three-and-out, and Dallas drove for a field goal: 20-17.

And then Jim Caldwell Jim Caldwelled the game. The Lions drove to about midfield, and following the pass interference controversy, had 4th-and-1 at the Dallas 46, with 8:25 remaining. That's too far for a field goal (64 yards), maybe a little too close for a punt (26 net yards on a touchback). Your opponent is building some momentum on offense, so there's every reason to go for the first down: get close enough to score and expand the lead, kill some time, and give your defense a rest. Caldwell had the offense try to draw Dallas offsides, but it didn't work and he took a delay of game penalty — this after a 5-yard running into the kicker penalty set up the Lions' first touchdown drive, and they're taking 4th-and-6 — and then punted. It's not the craziest thing I've ever seen, but Caldwell is way too conservative for my taste, and the plan did not work. Sam Martin's punt went off the side of his foot, out of bounds for a net of only 10 yards (after the delay penalty!). Detroit had 4th-and-1 at the Dallas 46, and the Cowboys took over at their own 41.

They drove for the go-ahead touchdown, 24-20. The Lions got the ball back with 2:32 left and promptly lost a fumble, saved only by the carelessness of rookie Demarcus Lawrence, who fumbled it right back. Detroit drove to about midfield before Lawrence redeemed himself with the game-clinching fumble recovery. I don't know how you could watch this game and say the Lions deserved to advance. I don't know how you could say that about Dallas, either, but the Lions didn't play well and should only blame themselves.

Worst special teams disaster in this game: Either the running into the kicker penalty in the first quarter, or the 10-yard punt in the fourth.

Divisional Forecasts

No one in the wild card round looked impressive. I'm picking all the top seeds, the teams that got byes.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Third postseason meeting in the last four years. They split the first two, New England winning in 2011 and Baltimore in 2012. The Ravens also knocked New England out of the playoffs in 2009.

There are reasons to believe in both teams. The Patriots were the best team in the AFC this year, clinching home field advantage before Week 17. However, they also rested many starters in the last week of the regular season, and lost to the Bills, meaning they'll go three weeks between meaningful games. That's often been a losing strategy in the postseason, with teams showing obvious rust after so much time off.

The Ravens are battle-tested, they're not just happy to be in the playoffs, and they're not intimidated by the Patriots. New England is tough at home, but that advantage hasn't been evident in the postseason. But the Ravens beat a sluggish Steeler team missing its MVP, whereas the Patriots seem reasonably healthy and should bring a lot more firepower. Pats by a touchdown.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

The Panthers are double-digit underdogs. You've got an 8-8-1 team going into Seattle, where the Seahawks have lost twice in the last two years, to face a team that played its best football at the end of the season. There are also questions about how healthy Cam Newton is; he took a beating on Saturday.

The Panthers can run and they can play defense, which means they should be able to compete with anyone. But the Seahawks are a complete team: explosive offense, dominant defense, great home field advantage. The Panthers weren't impressive against a struggling Cardinals team, and they'll need much more to beat Seattle. The Seahawks have beaten Carolina each of the last three seasons, and I say they get number four this weekend, winning a low-scoring game by double-digits.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

The Cowboys were not impressive on Sunday. It's great they managed a comeback, but they played sloppy and unfocused for much of the game, and that kind of effort won't be enough against the Packers. The biggest concern is the Dallas defense. It's been good enough for much of the year, but gave up some big plays against the Lions, and the Cowboys haven't faced an offense like this.

The Packers have been killers at home, 8-0, including wins over the Patriots, Lions, Panthers, and Eagles. Their average score in home games this year was 39-20, and that includes some second-half letdowns after they built up a big lead. The Cowboys were perfect on the road, but that ends Sunday. The Packers advance, winning by 10 in a shootout.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

The Peyton Manning Bowl. The Broncos, and Manning in particular, didn't look quite as sharp at the end of the season. The bye could exacerbate that, put them out of rhythm, or it could give the league's oldest quarterback a much-needed rest and get his explosive tight end healthy for the postseason. The Broncos should attack Indianapolis the same way New England has: the Colts will worry about Manning and the pass game, so you punish them with a ground attack. The Colts are comparably one-dimensional, and they don't have the juice to stay with Denver. Broncos by a touchdown.

* * *

Finally, a Sports Central tradition, our annual All-Loser Team: an all-star team made up entirely of players whose teams missed the postseason. If this team could actually be assembled, it would beat any and every team in the playoffs.

2014 NFL All-Loser Team

QB Drew Brees, NO
RB Arian Foster, HOU
WR Julio Jones, ATL
WR Odell Beckham, NYG
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS
TE Martellus Bennett, CHI
C Nick Mangold, NYJ
G Mike Iupati, SF
G Joel Bitonio, CLE
OT Jason Peters, PHI
OT Joe Thomas, CLE

DT Aaron Donald, STL
DT Marcell Dareus, BUF
DE J.J. Watt, HOU
LB Justin Houston, KC
LB Lavonte David, TB
LB Alec Ogletree, STL
LB Chris Borland, SF
CB Brent Grimes, MIA
CB Joe Haden, CLE
FS Harrison Smith, MIN
SS Antoine Bethea, SF

K Matt Bryant, ATL
P Johnny Hekker, STL
KR De'Anthony Thomas, KC
ST Darrell Stuckey, SD

Offensive Loser of the Year: Julio Jones, ATL
Defensive Loser of the Year: J.J. Watt, HOU
Most Valuable Loser: J.J. Watt, HOU
Coach of the Losers: Mike Zimmer, MIN

Our actual 2014 NFL All-Pro Team was published last week, along with awards including MVP, Coach of the Year, and Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:03 AM | Comments (0)

January 2, 2015

Sports Central's 2014 NFL All-Pro Team

With the 2014 regular season over, it's time to honor this season's most outstanding players. This column exists to explain the reasons I chose certain players, or didn't take others, and to give recognition to those who just missed the cut. If all you care about is who made the team, skip to the end and you'll find a list.

We name 13 players on offense and 13 on defense. With fullbacks playing ever smaller roles in the offense, a third wide receiver and second tight end are essential. On defense, we list three cornerbacks (everyone needs a good nickel back) and two each of defensive tackles and inside linebackers (accommodating both the 3-4 and 4-3). Our choices are listed in order, so you'll know which receiver is third, which tight end is second, and so on.

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Last Year: Peyton Manning (DEN)

Despite late campaigns for other players, I don't see this as particularly close. Rodgers made as many positive plays as anyone, with the fewest negative plays. Here's a stat I used in my Week 17 Power Rankings, the best single-season TD/INT differentials in NFL history:

1. Peyton Manning, +45 in 2013 (55 TD, 10 INT)
2. Tom Brady, +42 in 2007 (50 TD, 8 INT)
t3. Peyton Manning, +39 in 2004 (49 TD, 10 INT)
t3. Aaron Rodgers, +39 in 2011 (45 TD, 6 INT)
5. Aaron Rodgers, +33 in 2014 (38 TD, 5 INT)
t6. Tom Brady, +32 in 2010 (36 TD, 4 INT)
t6. Drew Brees, +32 in 2011 (46 TD, 14 INT)
t8. Dan Marino, +31 in 1984 (48 TD, 17 INT)
t8. Aaron Rodgers, +31 in 2012 (39 TD, 8 INT)
t10. Kurt Warner, 1999, and Daunte Culpepper, 2004, +28

Tony Romo was second this year, with +25. That's a great season, but not the same level as Rodgers. No one else creates so many positive plays.

Running Back: Le'Veon Bell (PIT)
Last Year: LeSean McCoy (PHI)

Only three candidates. Two of them are obvious: DeMarco Murray (DAL), who led the NFL in rushing, and Bell, who rushed for 1,361 yards — second only to Murray — and gained 854 yards as a receiver, most of any RB. The other player I considered was Marshawn Lynch (SEA), who led the NFL in touchdowns. Lynch is the hardest runner, the most spectacular playmaker, the most fun to watch. He's strong between the tackles, quick on the outside, an asset in the passing game. If I could go back in time and pick one RB to play for my favorite team in 2014, I would probably choose Lynch.

But I'm not going back in time, I'm evaluating what actually happened. As great as Lynch is, and as well as he played, I can't ignore the production of Murray and Bell. They were just more involved in their teams' offenses. Statistically, Murray and Bell are close. Murray rushed for many more yards, with a slightly higher average (4.71 to Bell's 4.69). But with receiving, their overall yardage is very similar (2,261 for Murray, 2,215 for Bell). Murray had more touchdowns (13 to 11), but he also lost five fumbles, and Bell didn't fumble all season. It seems to me that five turnovers roughly cancel out 46 yards and two TDs. Murray generated 101 first downs (86 rushing, 15 receiving) and Bell totaled 114 (73, 41). According to Pro Football Focus, Bell out-snapped Murray 944-800 this season. Maybe you think one or the other is a little ahead, but it's definitely close.

Murray is a complete runner: fast, powerful, excellent vision. Bell is bigger (6'1", 244), maybe a tick slower, but he's very dangerous in the passing game. He's a good blocker, very good route runner, good hands and good sense of space. I lean, ever so slightly, toward Bell's more diverse skill set.

Fullback: Kyle Juszczyk (BAL)
Last Year: John Kuhn (GB)

In 2014, this is a really low-impact position. If you prefer Kuhn or Bruce Miller (SF) or Marcel Reece (OAK) or Darrel Young (WAS), I won't argue with you. Juszczyk started 14 games, and he helped set up a 1,266-yard, 5.4-per-carry season for journeyman Justin Forsett.

Wide Receiver: Antonio Brown (PIT), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), Julio Jones (ATL)
Last Year: Calvin Johnson (DET), Josh Gordon (CLE), Demaryius Thomas (DEN)

Many wide receivers had fine seasons, but only four candidates drew serious consideration for the three spots on this team: Brown, Thomas, Jones, and Jordy Nelson (GB). Brown led the NFL in receptions (129, second-most in history), yards, and first downs. Thomas ranked second in catches and yards, and he went over 100 yards in 10 of the last 13 games. He's only the seventh player in history with 10 or more 100-yard receiving games in a season.

That leaves Jones and Nelson for the third wide receiver. Jones had more catches, for more yards and more first downs. But Nelson scored more than twice as many TDs, and he didn't fumble all season (Jones fumbled twice, losing one). I hate to omit Nelson, because he really was superb this year. I think Jones created a little more on his own.

Tight End: Rob Gronkowski (NE), Greg Olsen (CAR)
Last Year: Vernon Davis (SF), Jason Witten (DAL)

Gronk is obvious. He's the best tight end in the NFL, and it's not close.

This was a career year for Olsen, who trailed only Gronkowski (among tight ends) in yards and first downs. Perceived as a receiving-only tight end in Chicago, Olsen has worked to improve his blocking, and while no one will ever confuse him with Heath Miller (PIT), Olsen can and does block. Martellus Bennett (CHI), Antonio Gates (SD), and Miller were the other players I considered, but none made as much impact as Olsen, who led the Panthers in receptions, yards, and first downs.

Center: Nick Mangold (NYJ)
Last Year: Jonathan Goodwin (SF)

Only two players drew serious consideration at this position: Travis Frederick (DAL) and Mangold. Frederick is very solid, but Mangold is more exceptional, and gets less help from his teammates. Maurkice Pouncey (PIT) had his best season and would be my third choice.

Guard: Josh Sitton (GB), Marshal Yanda (BAL)
Last Year: Logan Mankins (NE), Andy Levitre (TEN)

Sitton was by far the best guard I saw this season, despite playing through a toe injury the second half of the season. He's solid in pass protection and dynamic in the run game. He remains one of the quickest guards in the league, his awareness is top-notch, and his positioning is exceptional. There's no one I'm crazy about for the second position. These things go through cycles, and right now the level of guard play around the league is not especially high. Yanda played well, but I don't see how anyone gets excited about him.

Offensive Tackle: Jason Peters (PHI), Joe Thomas (CLE)
Last Year: Jason Peters (PHI), Joe Staley (SF)

The level of tackle play has rebounded, just as the level of guard play has waned. Peters is athletic and particularly impressive in the run game, while Thomas is perhaps the best pass-blocker. Andrew Whitworth (CIN), Tyron Smith (DAL), and Staley also had nice years. There's no one I love at right tackle, but if you insist on one, I might choose Sebastian Vollmer (NE).

Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh (DET), Aaron Donald (STL)
Last Year: Justin Smith (SF), Ndamukong Suh (DET)

A month ago, this looked like a tight race, three players battling for two spots: Marcell Dareus (BUF), Gerald McCoy (TB), and Suh. McCoy suffered a season-ending knee injury and missed the last 2½ games. Then Dareus injured a knee and missed the last 1½ games. That made Suh an obvious choice. He's a dirty player, who deserved a playoff suspension, but he's a disruptive force on the line.

In the other spot, Donald snuck past Dareus, McCoy, Corey Liuget (SD), Sheldon Richardson (NYJ), and Kyle Williams (BUF). Dareus led all interior linemen in sacks (10), but Donald, a rookie who didn't start until Week 5, came in second (9). Donald also ranked second in tackles for loss (18), behind only Suh, and his 2 forced fumbles tied for the most of any DT.

Defensive End: J.J. Watt (HOU), Calais Campbell (ARI)
Last Year: J.J. Watt (HOU), Robert Quinn (STL)

Watt is a terror. We'll discuss him in more depth as Defensive Player of the Year. Whom to pair with him was a difficult decision. Fletcher Cox (PHI) and Campbell, like Watt, move around on the line. It's debatable whether to list them as tackles or ends. Even though that role seldom lends itself to stats, they both made 48 tackles, tying for third-most among defensive linemen. Campbell had 16 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, a forced fumble, 3 pass deflections, and an interception. Cox had 4 sacks and 3 fumble recoveries, one of them returned for a touchdown.

Four other players got serious consideration: Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG), Mario Williams (BUF), Robert Quinn (STL), and Everson Griffen (MIN). All had 35-40 tackles, except JPP, with 53. All had double-digit sacks, led by Williams, 14.5. All had at least 13 tackles for loss, with Williams again the leader (19). Quinn had the most forced fumbles (5), while he and Pierre-Paul tied for most pass deflections (6). Purely on the stats, I dropped Griffen out of the group. Williams and Quinn benefitted enormously from their teammates. Buffalo had the best defensive line in the NFL this season, and absent the attention paid to players like Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, Mario Williams would have faced a lot more double teams. Quinn was having a very quiet season until Aaron Donald was promoted to the starting lineup. He had no sacks in the first five games, and I don't want an all-pro who was shut down for a month of the season.

That left me with Pierre-Paul and Campbell. The Cardinals' defense took a lot of hits this season. Karlos Dansby left in free agency and Daryl Washington got suspended for the year. Darnell Dockett missed the season on injured reserve, Tyrann Mathieu was in and out of the lineup, and Patrick Peterson wasn't consistent. Yet with a punchless offense, that patched-together defense carried the team to an 11-5 finish and its first playoff appearance in five years. Campbell was the heart of the unit.

Outside Linebacker: DeAndre Levy (DET), Justin Houston (KC)
Last Year: Robert Mathis (IND), Lavonte David (TB)

This position really encompasses two distinct positions: pass rushers and space players. Most 3-4 OLBs are pass-rush specialists, comparable to defensive ends. Most 4-3 OLBs have a wider set of responsibilities, comparable to those of inside linebackers. In selecting an all-pro team, I generally look for one of each.

The pass rusher was easy this year. Houston led the NFL in sacks (22), ½-sack shy of Michael Strahan's official record. Houston also tied J.J. Watt for the most tackles (59) of anyone with more than six sacks, plus he had 4 forced fumbles and 5 pass deflections.

It was a two-way battle for the other spot, between Lavonte David and Levy. Neither one made the Pro Bowl, which is criminal. NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal named Levy the biggest Pro Bowl snub of the year, and I agree with him. Here you have the guy with the most tackles in the NFL (117, far ahead of David's second-place 101), and he's a big-play guy: 16 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, a safety, an interception. Levy is among the best coverage LBs in the NFL: last year, he intercepted six passes, placing him among the league leaders at any position.

Inside Linebacker: Luke Kuechly (CAR), Bobby Wagner (SEA)
Last Year: Karlos Dansby (ARI), NaVorro Bowman (SF)

Everyone good got hurt. Dansby missed the second half of the season, and Bowman missed the whole season. Daryl Washington and Sean Lee missed the whole season. Derrick Johnson played one game. Patrick Willis, Jerod Mayo, Paul Posluszny, and DeMeco Ryans all missed the second half of the season. Wagner missed five games in the middle of the year. Chris Borland (SF) and Keenan Robinson (WAS) got injured and missed games at the end of the season.

I didn't want to choose Luke Kuechly. Earlier this year, I twice called him the most overrated player in the NFL. But there's no one left, and Kuechly played better in the last two months of the season than the first two. He made some impact plays down the stretch, and he was an easy choice.

I very nearly chose Clay Matthews (GB) in the other spot, as a cheap way around my lack of enthusiasm for the real ILBs. Matthews played outside almost exclusively for the first half of the season, and inside part-time at the end of the year. But Matthews can play both positions, and he's an impact player at both. He's got an instinct for the ball, he's effective in pass coverage, and of course, he's superb penetrating into the backfield. I considered Jamie Collins (NE), another guy who plays both inside and outside, for the same reason.

But that degree of cheating ruins the point of choosing inside and outside LBs, something I complained about last year, so I've got Bobby Wagner, missed games and all. The Seahawks played a lot better when he was in there. D'Qwell Jackson (IND), C.J. Mosley (BAL), and Daryl Smith (BAL) had good seasons, but not a level I consider all-pro.

Cornerback: Richard Sherman (SEA), Darrelle Revis (NE), Vontae Davis (IND)
Last Year: Richard Sherman (SEA), Alterraun Verner (TEN), Joe Haden (CLE)

Teams are scared of Revis and Sherman. In Week 1, the Packers stayed away from Sherman all game; he effectively took away half the field, and while he didn't win that game single-handedly, he came close. That Revis still defensed 14 passes, and Sherman got 4 interceptions, is remarkable. Both are also excellent tacklers.

Davis edged Brent Grimes (MIA), Joe Haden (CLE), Chris Harris (DEN), and Aqib Talib (DEN) for the nickel corner position. Davis ended the season with 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, 4 INTs, and 19 passes defensed. The Indianapolis defense had the second-best third down percentage in the NFL (33%), and Davis was a big reason why.

Free Safety: Harrison Smith (MIN)
Last Year: Earl Thomas (SEA)

Glover Quin (DET) leads the NFL in interceptions; he'll probably get the most votes of any safety in the Associated Press balloting. I'm happy for him. I chose Quin two years ago, and it's always nice when you were among the first to catch on to a player. He's had a good year, and he's certainly part of Detroit's success this season.

But Smith was better. Quin intercepted 7 passes, and Smith intercepted 5. And hey, two INTs is not a trivial difference. But Smith had more tackles (72-57), more TFL (7-2), more sacks (3-0), more forced fumbles (1-0), more INT return yards (150-117), and more touchdowns (1-0). Other free safeties with standout seasons included Rashad Johnson (ARI) and Eric Weddle (SD).

Strong Safety: Antoine Bethea (SF)
Last Year: Eric Berry (KC)

San Francisco lost much of its celebrated linebacking corps to injury, but remained a top-10 defense by scoring, and top-five by yardage. Bethea, signed to replace Donte Whitner, stepped up to help the 49ers remain elite. He's an effective all-around safety, who plays the run and makes tackles, but who's also a factor in pass coverage, where he intercepted 4 throws, including one returned for a touchdown, and defensed a career-high 10 passes.

Mike Adams (IND) and James Ihedigbo (DET) were my runners-up.

Kicker: Matt Bryant (ATL)
Last Year: Stephen Gostkowski (NE)

I had four finalists: Bryant, Gostkowski, Dan Carpenter (BUF), and Adam Vinatieri (IND). That's two indoor kickers (Bryant and Vinatieri) and two cold-weather kickers (Gostkowski and Carpenter). Gostkowski led the NFL in field goals (35), but he only attempted one from 50 yards. Carpenter made 34 field goals, right behind Gostkowski, and he was 6/8 from 50 yards and beyond, including a 58-yard game winner in Week 5, giving the Bills a 17-14 lead with :04 left. But he missed four field goals (including the two 50-yarders) and an extra point. Between the two, I prefer Carpenter. He made more long field goals, and he missed fewer short ones (or equal, if you count the PAT).

Vinatieri went 15 games without missing a kick, and although he went wide left in Week 17, he still led the league in field goal percentage (30/31, 97%). Vinatieri was 3/3 from 50+. Bryant was perfect from inside 50, 22/22, and he led the NFL in 50-yard field goals, 7/10. One of the misses was blocked. That's a hell of a year.

Punter: Pat McAfee (IND)
Last Year: Mike Scifres (SD)

McAfee just won out among a group of three finalists, closely matched. Sam Koch (BAL) was the best outdoor punter this season. He led the NFL in net average (43.5), he only kicked four touchbacks, and he did a nice job limiting returns, especially by kicking toward the sidelines. Johnny Hekker (STL) was good in every area, but he particularly excelled at using hang time to prevent returns — over 1/3 of his punts were fair caught, the fourth-best FC% in the NFL. Hekker also completed two passes on fake punts, both for successful first downs.

McAfee had a great all-around year — good average, low return yardage — but he was especially distinguished by his work around the goal line. No punter this year was better at pinning opponents deep. Only three of McAfee's punts went for touchbacks, compared to 30 downed inside the 20-yard line, 10 of them inside the 10-yard line — including two at the opponents' 1-yard line. Creating negative field position for the opponent is a punter's most important job, and no one this season did that better than Pat McAfee.

Return Specialist: De'Anthony Thomas (KC)
Last Year: Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN)

Only two players this season returned multiple kicks for touchdowns: Darren Sproles (PHI) and Micah Hyde (GB). Neither one regularly returns kickoffs: they combined for just 5 KR, and Hyde averaged under one punt return per game, as well. Sproles led the NFL in punt return yardage, and he had the best average of anyone with at least 20 returns.

It's hard to find players who regularly return both kickoffs and punts. A regular returner should average at least 1½ returns per game, but only four players in the NFL met that average in both kickoff return and punt returns: Dwayne Harris, Jacoby Jones, Jarvis Landry, and Andre Roberts. None of them deserve serious consideration as all-pro returner, except maybe Jones. Harris had mediocre averages, no touchdowns, and four fumbled punt returns. Jones had four fumbles, too, and no one is worse about trying to return kicks from eight and nine yards deep in the end zone. Landry actually fumbled six returns this year; he's a poor punt returner. Roberts was below-average on both KRs and PRs, and he fair caught so often that Washington fans nicknamed him Andre Roberts El, after former returner Antwaan Randle El, who fair caught much more enthusiastically than he returned.

Among players who returned both kickoffs and punts, the best were Adam Jones (CIN) and Thomas. Both averaged over 30 yards per kickoff return, and 11.9 per punt return. Thomas maintained that average with no fair catches and no fumbles, while Jones had one of each, which is still excellent. Both returned kickoffs they should have touched back, which drives me crazy — Thomas got killed the last two games, four KRs stopped short of the 20 — but they made up for it with positive plays.

Thomas actually had a better year as a punt returner than Sproles. See if you can spot it in the numbers:

Sproles protected his average by fair catching punts he didn't think he could bust for a return, while Thomas looked for yardage every time. It doesn't count against his average, but Sproles had 16 return opportunities that produced zero yards. Thomas didn't care that his average went down on short returns; he was helping the team. Thomas edges Adam Jones, who had no return TDs this year, as my all-pro return specialist.

Special Teamer: Matthew Slater (NE)
Last Year: Matthew Slater (NE)

Slater has surpassed Kassim Osgood (SF) as the premier special teams ace in the NFL. Colt Anderson (IND), Justin Bethel (ARI), Darrell Stuckey (SD), and Eric Weems (ATL) also impressed me.

Six players repeat from my 2013 All-Pro team: Demaryius Thomas, Jason Peters, Ndamukong Suh, J.J. Watt, Richard Sherman, and Matt Slater.

Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Last Year: Peyton Manning (DEN)

Close three-way race, with players who really stood out at their respective positions: Rodgers, Antonio Brown (PIT), and tight end Rob Gronkowski (NE). Associated Press voters like to give this to a running back, and I have little doubt that DeMarco Murray will win their award. Murray had a great year, but it was a normal great year. Some running back has a season like this every year. Murray wasn't distinctly better than LeSean McCoy in 2013, or Adrian Peterson in 2012, or Ray Rice in 2011, or Arian Foster in 2010, or Chris Johnson in 2009 — actually, he was clearly not as exceptional as Peterson or Johnson. Without taking anything away from the great RBs this season, they didn't stand out in a historical context.

Brown caught the 2nd-most passes in history (Marvin Harrison, 2002), with the 2nd-most receiving first downs of the 2000s (Calvin Johnson, 2012). He gained almost 1,700 yards, scored 13 receiving TDs, and he was a good punt returner, if you count that as offense. There have been six seasons by tight ends that produced 1,100 receiving yards and double-digit TDs. Two of the six are by Rob Gronkowski, and he's a good blocker.

So why Aaron Rodgers? He didn't lead the league in any of the major stats. Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger passed for the most yards, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning threw more touchdowns, and Tony Romo had a higher passer rating. But when you put all that together — being near the top in every category — and then you factor in INTs and rushing and average yardage, Rodgers really stands out. It's easy to underrate him because of what Peyton Manning did last year; Rodgers didn't have that kind of season. But there have only been a very few seasons in which quarterbacks dominated like Rodgers. I believe he had the most exceptional season, both against his peers this year, and in historical context.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt (HOU)
Last Year: Richard Sherman (SEA)

This should be unanimous. Watt led all defensive linemen in tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, fumble recoveries, and pass deflections. He also forced 4 fumbles, intercepted a pass, gained 139 return yards, scored 5 touchdowns and a safety, and blocked an extra point. It's one of the greatest seasons by any defensive player in history, and no one else this season was close.

Special Teams Player of the Year: Matt Bryant (ATL)
Last Year: Matthew Slater (NE)

No misses inside 50 yards, and led the league in 50-yard field goals. I don't want to dole out 7,000 awards, but if I named a Special Teams Rookie of the Year, I'd pick Cody Parkey (PHI), the kicker out of Auburn.

Most Valuable Player: J.J. Watt (HOU)
Last Year: Peyton Manning (DEN)

There were two serious candidates, Aaron Rodgers (GB) and Watt, and deciding between them was agonizing. If this was a pure "Player of the Year" award, I'd choose Watt without hesitation. And while I've always resisted the idea that these honors have to go an offensive player who handles the ball, I do believe that quarterbacks are the most important players on the field, the ones who have the most power to help or hurt their teams. A great QB does more for his team than a great defensive lineman.

But Watt is not just a great defensive lineman, he's outstanding, historic, from another planet.

I read somewhere, years ago, that regardless of voting, either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning was probably the most valuable player in the NFL every year from 2003-07. I think that's right. I voted for a couple of running backs in there, and I'm not sure that was the right call. That realization has framed my MVP voting ever since: I've chosen a quarterback every year. I had Rodgers typed in until the final draft of this piece, and I'm still not confident; he might be the best choice. I just can't overlook what Watt has done this season. I probably should have taken him two years ago, and I didn't. This year, J.J. Watt is my MVP.

A campaign built, in the final weeks of the season, for Tony Romo. He's a good player, and he had an outstanding season, but it's not at all clear that Romo is the most valuable player on his own team. What about DeMarco Murray? What about Dez Bryant? What about the best offensive line in the NFL? Romo only threw 435 passes this season, 23rd in the league. He passed for 700 yards fewer than Rodgers, 1,000 fewer than Manning, 1,200 behind Ben Roethlisberger. Romo was very efficient, but part of value is production, too, and Romo's production was low compared to the other top QBs. I don't find him a credible MVP candidate.

A similar problem limits my support for Roethlisberger. Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown were at least as outstanding at their respective positions as Ben was among QBs. If you ranked MVP candidates, there would probably be three Steelers in the top 10. Pittsburgh went 11-5, and you'd expect a team with three MVP candidates to win more games than that.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Odell Beckham (NYG)
Last Year: Eddie Lacy (GB)

This was a great year for rookie guards and wide receivers. Zack Martin (DAL) and Joel Bitonio (CLE) both made immediate impressions on the offensive line, while Mike Evans (TB) and Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) had 1,000-yard receiving seasons, with Sammy Watkins (BUF) and Jordan Matthews (PHI) not too far behind. Either Evans or Jeremy Hill (CIN) would be my second choice; Hill rushed for 1,124 yards with a 5.06 average and 9 TDs.

But Beckham stands alone. Despite missing the first four games of the season with an injury, he caught 91 passes for 1,305 yards and 12 TDs, all top-10 marks. Beckham had seven 100-yard receiving games, tied with Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Emmanuel Sanders for third-most in the league. He repeatedly made spectacular catches, including perhaps the greatest in history. This was the greatest season by a rookie receiver since Randy Moss.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aaron Donald (STL)
Last Year: Sheldon Richardson (NYJ)

Khalil Mack (OAK) would be my fourth choice, behind Donald, C.J. Mosley (BAL), and Chris Borland (SF). When I saw the Raiders this season, Mack didn't make an impression on me. Maybe I just saw him on the wrong nights, but the numbers back up my impression. Mack led the Raiders in ... nothing. On a 3-13 team that ranked dead last in points allowed, Mack ranked fourth in tackles (59), second in sacks (4), and nowhere in pass coverage (3 PD, 0 INT) or fumbles (1 FF, 0 FR). He did make 16 tackles for loss, which is excellent.

Mosley and Borland were better. Mosley led all rookies in tackles (89), with 3 sacks, 2 INTs, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and 8 PD. Borland began the year as a backup and ended on injured reserve, so he only started eight games. In a little more than half a season, he tallied 84 tackles, including 12 TFL and a sack, plus three takeaways (2 INT, 1 FR).

Aaron Donald saved the Rams' defense. A great unit last year, it struggled at the beginning of this season, allowing over 30 points in three of the first four games. Then Donald cracked the starting lineup, and St. Louis allowed an average of 19.6 ppg down the stretch. Donald led all rookies in sacks (9), even though he doesn't play an edge-rushing position, and he led in TFL (18). Donald made the most big plays of any rookie defender, and he created a ton of opportunities for teammates, notably Robert Quinn.

Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians (ARI)
Last Year: Andy Reid (KC)

Arians had this sewn up at least two weeks ago. He's the only candidate I seriously considered, and he will win the Associated Press vote easily. The Cardinals went 11-5 in a stacked division. They lost Carson Palmer, Andre Ellington, Darnell Dockett, and Daryl Washington, and they still ranked among the best teams in the league. Arians has consistently gotten his teams to overachieve.

Bill Belichick (NE) and Pete Carroll (SEA) did nice jobs keeping the boat steady, on teams that were expected to contend, and overcame early hurdles to do just that. The Patriots traded away their best offensive lineman and took the field without a lead RB or standout WRs, and they still secured the top seed in the AFC playoffs. The Seahawks lost half a dozen starters in free agency and parted ways with Percy Harvin midway through the season. Now they're Super Bowl favorites. Marvin Lewis (CIN) found new offensive and defensive coordinators this season, after both of his old ones got hired away as head coaches. He's headed for a fourth straight postseason. All those coaches did great, but Arians was the most outstanding.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Todd Haley (PIT)
Last Year: Mike Zimmer (CIN)

Tough call this year. Teryl Austin (DET) did a fine job in his first year coordinating the Lions' defense, and Darrell Bevell (SEA) has surely earned a head coaching gig, but this ultimately came down to Jim Schwartz (BUF) and a pair of Todds. Schwartz turned a good defensive line into a great defense, and Todd Bowles (ARI) worked wonders with the Cardinals' patched-together D. He'll be a hot head coaching candidate this offseason, for good reason.

But how can you overlook what Todd Haley has done in Pittsburgh? This was the team's highest-ranked offense (2nd in yards) since the '70s. The offensive line came together. Ben Roethlisberger had maybe his best season. Le'Veon Bell played at all-pro level. Antonio Brown pushed the record books. Haley took a lot of criticism when he initially replaced Arians, but his system is working.

2014 All-Pro Team

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT
FB Kyle Juszczyk, BAL
WR Antonio Brown, PIT
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN
WR Julio Jones, ATL
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE
TE Greg Olsen, CAR
C Nick Mangold, NYJ
G Josh Sitton, GB
G Marshal Yanda, BAL
OT Jason Peters, PHI
OT Joe Thomas, CLE

DT Ndamukong Suh, DET
DT Aaron Donald, STL
DE J.J. Watt, HOU
DE Calais Campbell, ARI
OLB DeAndre Levy, DET
OLB Justin Houston, KC
ILB Luke Kuechly, CAR
ILB Bobby Wagner, SEA
CB Richard Sherman, SEA
CB Darrelle Revis, NE
CB Vontae Davis, IND
FS Harrison Smith, MIN
SS Antoine Bethea, SF

K Matt Bryant, ATL
P Pat McAfee, IND
KR De'Anthony Thomas, KC
ST Matthew Slater, NE

Off POY — Aaron Rodgers, GB
Def POY — J.J. Watt, HOU
ST POY — Matt Bryant, ATL
MVP — J.J. Watt, HOU
Off Rookie — Odell Beckham, NYG
Def Rookie — Aaron Donald, STL
Coach — Bruce Arians, ARI
Assistant — Todd Haley, PIT

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:44 PM | Comments (0)

January 1, 2015

NFL Weekly Predictions: Wild Card

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Arizona @ Carolina (-6)

The Panthers destroyed the Falcons in Atlanta, 34-3, to win the NFC South division crown. Carolina rushed for 194 yards and returned two Matt Ryan interceptions for scores as the Panthers finished 7-8-1.

"The Falcons beat us in Charlotte back in Week 11," Cam Newton said, "while limiting us to 106 yards on the ground. This time, we just flipped the script. If you take a losing record and turn it upside down, it doesn't look so bad.

"The sewage system backed up in the Atlanta locker room. That what happens when you finish No. 2 in the NFC South. The cream rises to the top; the rest ends up in the Falcons locker room. And Mike Smith got fired a day later. If you're scoring at home, 'Black Monday' followed 'Brown Sunday.'

"I've played some of my best football since my traffic accident. And I've been as equally valuable in scouting Ryan Lindley. If there's one thing I know, it's a junior college quarterback."

The Cardinals enter the playoffs having lost two straight games, the latest loss a 20-17 defeat at Levi's Stadium against the 49ers. Arizona is the NFC's No. 5 seed and will face the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.

"We're not exactly riding a wave of momentum into the playoffs," Bruce Arians said. "And that could easily transform into a wave of goodbye.

"But don't underestimate my team. They're very resilient. We've been through the highs and lows this season. Among the high was starting the season 9-1. Among the lows was the failure of the 'Bring Back Kurt Warner' campaign. As you know, Kurt answers to a higher calling — the NFL Network. He a very valuable part of the network's studio team — I believe he may be the only one that speaks English."

The Bank of America Stadium crowd welcomes former Panther quarterback Jake Delhomme, introduced as the game's honorary coin tosser. Delhomme's errant flip is intercepted by former Cardinal and current New York Giant Antrel Rolle, who is just passing through.

The incident serves as an unwelcome reminder of the last time Carolina and Arizona met in the playoffs. It was 2009, in Charlotte, Delhomme had 6 turnovers, and the Cardinals walked away with a 33-13 win. Don't expect a repeat of that, because there's no way the Cards can score 33 in a playoff game, or in the entire playoffs for that matter. But they can at least score 20, thanks to seven courtesy of their defense.

Arizona wins, 20-16.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)

The Ravens stormed back from a 10-3 deficit early in the fourth quarter with 17 unanswered points to beat the Browns, 20-10, and capture the AFC's final wildcard spot. Joe Flacco threw 2 TD passes in the fourth quarter to boost the Ravens.

"First of all," Flacco said, "let me say, 'Hail to the Chiefs.' Personally, I think it's very honorable for a team's mascot to be named after a Native American. And the Chiefs deserve all the praise. They practically made our playoff reservation. Our playoff hopes were reeling, but a Chiefs win was just the remedy. And we took that medicine, man.

"Keep in mind, this was a Browns team playing without Johnny Manziel and Josh Gordon. Apparently, they can't hold their liquor, or their job. The only thing Manziel throws well are parties. Gordon attended, and if he had to rate the experience, you can best believe it tested positive. But, if you're not going to the playoffs, you can party like there's no tomorrow.

"We know it won't be easy to win at Heinz Field. It's like Ray Rice's home — it's a hostile environment, and if things go badly, you might need to be escorted out by police."

The Steelers captured the AFC North title with a 27-17 win over the Bengals. Antonio Brown had a 71-yard punt return for a touchdown in the first quarter, and sealed the win with a 69-yard TD pass from Ben Roethlisberger in the fourth.

"Antonio is unstoppable," Ben Roethlisberger said. "He averaged 117 yards receiving in two games against Baltimore this season, and he's looking to outdo that on Saturday night. The Ravens may say 'Nevermore,' but Antonio promises 'even more.'

"The Ravens have overcome a lot of adversity this year. There was that thing with Mike Tice and an escalator. No? Was it Jerry Rice and an excavator? Ray Lewis and an investigator? Art Modell and a ventilator? Franco Harris and an 'Immaculator?' Bill Romanowski and an 'instigator?' Oh, I know, it was Ray Rice and an elevator. But who am I to cast stones? Haven't we all had a regrettable incident with a woman in a confined space? Or two?

"But we have adversity of our own. Le'Veon Bell hyper-extended his knee on Sunday night. But there's no structural damage. I'm not a doctor, but I do like to play one, and my professional opinion is Bell won't play. That makes our offense one dimensional. And from one 'D' to another, that plays right into our hands.

"And speaking of things that bend but don't break, defense won't decide this game. Quarterbacks will. Specifically, the quarterback who has the fewest number of pass attempts. In other words, we have to stop the Ravens running game and encourage Flacco to throw."

Pittsburgh wins, 23-20.

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-4)

For the second year in a row, the Colts have the AFC's No. 4 seed, and will face the Bengals in a rematch of their Week 7 contest, won by the Colts, 27-0.

"That may have been our finest defensive effort of the year," Andrew Luck said. "And you can best believe the Bengals remember it. I hear it's on their bulletin board. Andy Dalton is thrilled about it. It's one instance in which they didn't 'pin' the loss on him.

"This is a matchup between the AFC North and AFC South. And speaking of 'North-South,' we'd love to have a back that runs in that direction. I think that's known as running 'downhill,' which makes sense, because after our rush attack does its thing, it's an uphill battle. We like to call our running game the 'San Francisco Weather' of rushing offenses — expect anything from 50 to 70, and it never, ever breaks 100.

"One thing we can always count on is the crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium. It's a playoff game, plus it's 'Jim Irsay Appreciation Day,' and every fan in attendance gets a quart of Lucas 10W40. That way, everyone in attendance can be well-oiled, just like Irsay."

The Bengals lost at Pittsburgh 27-17, giving the Steelers the AFC North crown while Cincy settled for the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Bengals had three turnovers, including two Andy Dalton interceptions

"Cam Newton's truck isn't the only turnover machine in the playoffs," Marvin Lewis said. "Andy's 0-3 in the playoffs. He's yet to experience that career-defining playoff game, or he has three of them, depending on how you look at it."

Indianapolis survives a hot start from the Bengals, and Andrew Luck throws for 2 scores and runs for another.

Colts wins, 27-24.

Detroit @ Dallas (-7)

The Cowboys squashed the Redskins 44-17 last week, powered by DeMarco Murray, Tony Romo, and Dez Bryant. Murray broke Emmitt Smith's season rushing yardage mark, while Bryant broke Terrell Owen's mark for TD receptions in a season.

"They're what we call the 'triplets,'" Jerry Jones said. "And I love 'triplets' as much as I do twins.

"It was awesome to see two Cowboys all-time records broken on the same day. I guess those old records had reached their end, and boy do I love to see a statute of limitations expire. Emmitt's record is 19-years-old, which is a damn fine age in my book.

"We'll be ready for the Lions. And when I say 'ready,' I mean we'll be wearing our chaps, or goalie gear, or a suit of armor. Whatever it takes to protect us from the Lions. Dominic Raiola and Ndamukong Suh may not be red-headed, but they are the 'step-children' of the NFL. It seems unlikely that of all the incidents involving a foot, they've claimed they were all unintentional.They should call Suh and Dominic Raiola the 'Double-Meant Twins,' because it's never an accident.

"This year's edition of the Cowboys is built for a playoff run. That starts with Murray. He's a tough son of a gun. He broke a bone in his left hand and hasn't missed a game. A lot of credit goes to the surgeon who repaired his left hand. Believe it or not, I was in the operating room. I even tried to help. Luckily, there was a 27-year-old stripper in the room who told me my hands don't belong there."

The Lions lost 30-22 at Green Bay as the Packers took the NFC North crown, while the Lions took the No. 6 seed.

"Our futility at Lambeau Field continued," Jim Caldwell said. "The 'Lambeau mystique' obviously has an effect on us. That turf at Lambeau may be the only thing the Lions would rather not step on ever again. According to Ndamukong Suh, 'hallowed ground' is Aaron Rodger's ankle.

"Suh's one-game suspension was overturned on appeal. That's good news for us, and bad news for whatever body part becomes mysteriously attracted to the bottom of Suh's foot. Suh is set to be a free agent in the spring. I'm guessing he'll sign a massive deal, with figures in the nine digits, and stipulations to match. I hear Suh can write with his foot, because that's his 'signature.'"

Cowboys win, 26-22.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:12 AM | Comments (0)