Five Quick Hits
* Congratulations to the Calgary Stampeders and L.A. Galaxy, who won the Grey Cup and the MLS Final, respectively.
* I always liked the idea of an eight-team college football playoff. Four is fine, and I'm okay with the selection committee's decision, but it would be fun to see Ohio State vs. Baylor and Florida State against TCU. Still, we're moving in the right direction. There are at least three teams who deserve an opportunity to show they're the best in the country, and this is the first year they'll get a chance to prove it on the field.
* Literal LOL for this: Jeff Fisher sent Janoris Jenkins, Michael Brockers, Zac Stacy, Stedman Bailey, Greg Robinson, and Alec Ogletree to midfield as coin toss captains for the Rams' game against Washington. All six captains were acquired with picks from the RG3 trade. Cold, but clever.
* My favorite quote of the week came from Joe Buck at 5:30 pm: "Arizona's gonna have a rough time winning another game this season." Arizona won about an hour and a half later.
* Right now there is a five-way tie for the top pick in next year's draft. The Buccaneers, Jaguars, Jets, Raiders, and Titans are all 2-11.
2014 Week Fourteen NFL Power Rankings
Brackets show previous rank.
1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Defense played as badly as the offense did well. Atlanta ended the game with 37 points, 26 first downs, 465 yards, only 1 turnover, and 5 touchdowns in five trips to the red zone. Julio Jones did most of the damage (259 yards). The Packers have games coming up against Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, and Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. I think this was just a letdown game — maybe even a letdown half after they went into the locker room leading 31-7 — but they can't afford to give up plays like that in the secondary.
2. New England Patriots [2] — Stalled in the red zone and had a defensive touchdown called back by a dubious penalty. The close score — a single-digit victory and trailing to begin the fourth quarter — doesn't reflect the tide of the game. The Patriots were clearly the better team.
3. Seattle Seahawks [5] — Three straight wins, all by double-digits and all against teams with winning records. The Seahawks handled a bitter rival (49ers) on the road, then went to Philadelphia and mauled the Eagles, who had been on a serious roll. Seattle is peaking at the right time.
4. Denver Broncos [3] — Won with defense. The Broncos sacked Kyle Orton 4 times and forced 3 turnovers, plus a stop when the Bills went for it on fourth down. This is not really about the Broncos any more, but on Sunday night Cris Collinsworth talked about Chargers head coach Mike McCoy, "who was with Peyton Manning all those years." Manning and McCoy were only together for one season, 2012. You might remember that Manning spent most of his career with the Indianapolis Colts.
5. Indianapolis Colts [4] — Played without their best defender (cornerback Vontae Davis, concussion) and got their worst game of the season from Andrew Luck, who finished with 2 interceptions and a lost fumble recovered for a Browns TD. Luck completed just 24 of 53 passes (45%) and Indianapolis went 5/16 on third downs (31%). He wasn't helped by Reggie Wayne, who caught only 1 of his 8 targets and dropped several passes. The Colts overcame their slow start to win for the third week in a row. There aren't a lot of teams that can play badly and still win, but this is one of them right now.
6. Philadelphia Eagles [6] — The PAC-12 has sent several successful coaches to the NFL recently: Pete Carroll (USC), Jim Harbaugh (Stanford), and Philadelphia's Chip Kelly (Oregon). Carroll and Kelly faced each other only once in college, on Halloween of 2009. Kelly's Oregon Ducks won 47-20, with two 150-yard rushers and 613 yards on offense. Carroll got revenge on Sunday, holding the Eagles to 9 first downs and 139 yards of offense. Seattle out-gained the Eagles by over 300 yards (440) and picked up more than three times as many first downs (28).
7. St. Louis Rams [11] — First team with back-to-back shutouts since the 2009 Dallas Cowboys. They've become a team no one wants to play, and they're 3½-point favorites over the 9-3 Cardinals this Thursday.
8. Arizona Cardinals [9] — Haven't scored 20 points in a game since Carson Palmer's season-ending injury. They've averaged just 13 ppg over the last four weeks. Defense wins championships, but to beat teams like Green Bay and Seattle and Philadelphia in the playoffs, they'll need to put some more points on the board.
9. San Diego Chargers [15] — Punter Mike Scifres fractured his clavicle on a blocked punt Sunday night. He had surgery on Monday, and could return for the playoffs if the Chargers qualify.
10. Baltimore Ravens [16] — Didn't miss Pro Bowl defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who is suspended the remainder of the regular season after testing positive for Adderall. The Ravens won a critical game — keeping pace in the competitive AFC North and handing a painful defeat to a rival in the AFC wild card battle — and they won with defense, sacking Ryan Tannehill six times and holding the Dolphins to 249 yards.
11. Buffalo Bills [10] — Too many mistakes against the Broncos: 3 turnovers, 11 penalties for 98 yards, poor red zone defense. On the bright side, rookie receiver Sammy Watkins, who has been struggling with a groin injury, gained more yards on Sunday (127) than in the previous four games combined (105).
12. Detroit Lions [13] — Back-to-back 34-17 victories. There have been a lot of those recently; it's weird. The Lions the last two weeks, the Seahawks in Weeks 12 and 13 (19-3), the Bears in Weeks 11 and 12 (21-13), and sort of the Chiefs (won 24-20 in Week 11, lost 24-20 in Week 12).
13. Dallas Cowboys [12] — Best offensive line performance I've seen all season. They played virtually the whole game without missing a block or losing to the defender. When they had protection breakdowns, it was a running back, a tight end, or an unblocked defender. Dominant game by all five starting offensive linemen.
14. Kansas City Chiefs [8] — Lost three in a row, but they've been competitive against tough teams. They lost by three in Arizona, where the Cardinals are 7-0 this season and 13-2 (.867) under Bruce Arians. There's no shame in that. They lost by 13 to the Broncos, but everyone loses to the Broncos. They lost to Oakland, but that was probably a fluke: a rivalry game, on a short week, in bad weather. This week's loss in the desert turned on a highly questionable officiating decision.
15. Miami Dolphins [7] — There is a limit, I think, to how effective a team can be without passing downfield. The Ravens are vulnerable in the secondary, and Miami never really tried to take advantage. The CBS announcers even mentioned that Miami wasn't testing anything deep. If nothing else, stretching the defense vertically opens up opportunities underneath. Ryan Tannehill averages just 10 yards per completion, second-lowest among qualified passers (Derek Carr, 9.4). The league average is 11.5.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers [19] — Up-and-down in their division games. After a 30-27 win over Cleveland in Week 1, they've played four AFC North teams, with every game decided by at least 20 points:
Week 2: BAL 26, PIT 6
Week 6: CLE 31, PIT 10
Week 9: PIT 43, BAL 23
Week 14: PIT 42, CIN 21
Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, and NFC West have more anomalous rivalry games than the other divisions. You know how we sometimes say, "Throw the records out the window when division rivals meet" — I think it's more true in those divisions.
17. Cincinnati Bengals [14] — Home field advantage is down this year. Last season, home teams went 153-102-1 (.600); so far this season, they're 118-89-1 (.570). Six teams were at least +.500 better at home than on the road in 2013:
The Bengals have gone from extreme home-field advantage (8-0 home, 3-5 away) to no advantage (4-2-1 home, 4-2 away). The Saints and Ravens have notably evened out, too. Right now, three teams are at least +.500 better at home:
The biggest change is actually the Cowboys, who last year were a strong home team (5-3 home, 3-5 away, +.250 H) and this season are better on the road (3-4 home, 6-0 away, -.571 H) — a shift of -.821.
18. Houston Texans [18] — J.J. Watt continues to terrorize the league. He had four tackles for loss this week, including three sacks. Jadeveon Clowney hasn't been healthy all season. Can you imagine the damage from that duo if blockers had to account for both of them?
19. Atlanta Falcons [21] — Julio Jones was unstoppable, for the second game in a row. If he's healthy and keeps this up, Atlanta's going to the playoffs.
20. Minnesota Vikings [23] — Weirdly even game. Both teams made 19 first downs. The Vikings gained 411 yards, the Jets 410. And it went into overtime. It was not an impressive win, but it's their second in a row, and four of the last six.
21. Cleveland Browns [22] — Last week, I wrote that I thought the Browns should stick with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Hoyer was awful, for the third or fourth week in a row, and I think it's time to see what Johnny Manziel can do. But I also think this week's poor performance spoke to my reasoning. Hoyer had a bad game, and now it's easy to hand the reins to Manziel. But if they'd switched to Johnny Football, and he stunk up the joint against Indianapolis, the team couldn't realistically switch back to Hoyer. This approach makes things easier for Manziel and for the organization.
22. San Francisco 49ers [20] — Ahmad Brooks missed a meeting this week and was benched for Sunday's game. Brooks is talented, but he seems increasingly like the kind of player who's not worth the trouble. In six regular season games at their new ballpark, Levi's Stadium, the Niners have scored fewer points (98) than the Oregon Ducks (103 in two games).
23. New Orleans Saints [17] — Lost four of their last five, including a blowout defeat against a team that had lost six in a row. The Saints are 3-4 at home. If they lose to the Falcons in Week 16, it would be their first time since 2007 with a losing record at home.
24. Oakland Raiders [32] — Won two of their last three. The last time they played a team that currently has a losing record was ... Week 1. Seriously. They've faced a really tough schedule.
25. New York Jets [24] — From their last drive of the first quarter to their first possession of the fourth quarter, they reached the red zone five times in a row ... and came away with 12 points. Five red zone possessions, 12 points. I guess when your offense is that bad, you feel like a field goal is the best you can do.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Fourteen rush attempts for 26 yards and no first downs. The pass game and defense were nearly as bad. The Bucs are awful and should probably rank lower than this.
27. New York Giants [28] — They're 4-9, and just snapped a seven-game losing streak. All four of their wins were by double-digits, including 45-14 over Washington and 36-7 this week. How do you alternate between blowout victories and spirit-crushing losses?
28. Chicago Bears [25] — In the second quarter, Brandon Marshall made a courageous catch in traffic, on a critical 4th-and-7. Unfortunately, he was injured on the play, suffering two broken ribs and a collapsed lung. He's going to be okay, but his season is over.
29. Carolina Panthers [31] — Everyone's talking about their Week 6 tie with the Bengals, and how it could be the difference in Cincinnati's hopes of winning the AFC North. Turns out, it could also be the difference in the NFC South, where Carolina is only half a game back.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars [27] — Remember when you thought Denard Robinson was going to save your fantasy team?
31. Washington [30] — Five years ago, I saw into the future. Re-reading an old article (to see how I addressed the Cowboys' back-to-back shutouts at the end of the 2009 regular season), I found two comments that look prescient today:
"Washington fans, what makes you think Bruce Allen will do anything Vinny Cerrato didn't?"
"St. Louis has been outscored by 239 points this season and has a real chance to be even worse in this category than last year's winless Lions (-249). It's hard to know how to even begin fixing this team."
Sure enough, the Rams were still terrible two years later, bad enough to earn the 2nd overall pick in the 2012 draft. The way to fix the team, it turned out, was to trade Herschel Walker ransom that pick to Washington, a team run by morons.
32. Tennessee Titans [29] — They rank behind Washington because of injuries: Zach Mettenberger is out for the season (shoulder), replaced by Jake Locker. Washington played this week without its best offensive player (DeSean Jackson) and best defensive player (Keenan Robinson); one or both are likely to return for Week 15.
Basically, Washington probably isn't as bad as it looked on Sunday, while Tennessee might be even worse. The Titans have lost seven in a row, the longest active losing streak in the NFL.
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