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December 31, 2014

MLB 2014: The Year in Review

The year opened with Alex Rodriguez staring baseball down, suing its government and its players' union, then allowing both to crow, "the other guy just blinked." Baseball did a lot of blinking during 2014. Not to mention winking, nodding, prodding, clodding, and thrilling. Not necessarily in that order. And how the mighty have fallen: A-Rod ended the 2014 he missed under suspension freshly penciled in as the Yankees' next ... designated hitter. And into near-irrelevancy.

Travis Ishikawa channeled his inner Bobby Thomson and The Giants won the pennant! The Giants won the pennant! Then, riding the Shot Heard 'Round the Bay and Beyond, baseball's ninth-best regular season team beat baseball's seventh-best regular season team (who beat baseball's eighth-best team in its league's wild card play-in game) in an oddly exciting World Series — which could be described otherwise as Madison Bumgarner and a cast of several.

Bud Selig, who really is resigning as commissioner, has quite a legacy to leave. (And, a reported $6 million a year salary to stay retired.) With postseasons like that, excitingly though they've been played, he's proven that the common good of the game isn't always as important as making money for it. Commissioner-elect Rob Manfred has a sizable pair of penny loafers to fill. We'll know soon enough whether Manfred thinks championship means a thing anymore.

Better contestants than the Giants and the Royals found mind-boggling ways to get shoved out of it. Baseball's best regular season team, the Angels, the only team in the Show with a .600+ winning percentage, let the Royals roach and roll them, while manager Mike Scioscia balked at one tactic that helped him guarantee their American League West ownership: filling in for a key lost starting pitcher (Garret Richards, splendid rookie, to a knee injury) with a team of relievers to cover his would-have-been starts. (The unexpected nap of Scioscia's hitters didn't help.)

The Nationals, with the National League's best regular season record, watched their manager hook their Game Two starter an out from a three-hit shutout and their hitters not named Bryce Harper sleep on the job, then lost a division series because the Giants proved to better at getting out of their own way. Harper's reward: a chance to avoid a grievance hearing on his original contract and sign a two-year, $7.5 million pact. Here's hoping he continues learning that outfield walls are unforgiving under assault.

The Orioles, tied (with the Nats) as baseball's second-best team, in a second postseason in three years after a long nightmare's journey into the abyss, overcame key season-ending injuries (Manny Machado, Matt Weiters) and one suspension. (Chris Davis, over a legitimate medication containing an amphetamine, for which players who require it must obtain a formal exemption — which he had before and has again, for 2015.) They surprised themselves by rolling the Tigers (the Show's fifth-best, almost in spite of themselves), who proved short on anything much resembling a bullpen or a defense, only to look like elephants against the Royals' squealing mice.

The Dodgers, National League West champions (and the Show's fourth-best team) in a sort of runaway after the Giants collapsed to a wild card play-in game, watched in horror as someone forgot to tell their Most Valuable Cy Young Award winner that not even Clayton Kershaw can get away with throwing one down the pipe to a guy who can be had on outer-zone pitches, in double play situations or otherwise. Matt Adams pounced on that lapse ... and the Cardinals went to a date with Ishikawa, mostly because their manager thought it untoward to bring in his closer when he most needed a stopper — because it was a tie game on the road. Setting up a World Series between two teams who had to win wild card play-in games (the Royals overthrew the Athletics; the Giants Bumgarnered the Pirates) in the first place.

Would this be the appropriate time to suggest, yet again (you thought you'd escape the year without my mentioning it even once), that with three-division league alignments there is a proper way to determine the championship, and that it would go as follows? 1) If your butts weren't parked in first place at season's end, thanks for playing and wait till next year. It's time to return the regular season to meaning something higher than the thrills and chills of an all-out, to the wire battle for ... second place. 2) The division winners with the season's best records get a round-one bye and the absurd division series is eliminated. (Am I the only one around here who thinks it's bloody absurd to have "division series" one of which in each league features a team that didn't win its division?) 3) The remaining division winners in each league play a best-of-three; the winners of those sets play the bye winners in each League Championship Series. 4) Restore the World Series's primacy no questions asked and return the League Championship Series to the best-of-five as which it was born in the first place. 5) The World Series remains a best-of-seven and a true championship.

Meanwhile, back in the jungle, Derek Jeter announced his pending retirement when spring training was barely open. He spent the season taking yet another grand farewell tour as a shell of his former self with a few shining moments and a lot of nonsense, on both sides of opinion, about the tour. (Adam Wainwright, Cardinals pitcher, tripped all over himself over whether he did or didn't groove one to Jeter in the All-Star Game.) It was probably the most fun Yankee fans had all season long. (By contrast, Josh Willingham and Ryan Dempster retired so quietly after the postseason finished that you could have heard a hair drop.) Yogi Berra debuted in the ninth race at Tampa Bay Downs in late February and won. No, it wasn't the Hall of Fame catcher taking up a late career as a jockey, it was a thoroughbred colt, owned by one of the late George Steinbrenner's daughters. (In case you wondered, Yogi the Hall of Famer's major league debut occurred in 1946, in game one of a doubleheader against the Athletics — Philadelphia, that is. He cracked a home run in his first major league at-bat.) Elsewhere in Florida, Giancarlo Stanton after the season signed a thirteen-year, $325 million contract, heavily backloaded, with the Marlins, who may well intend that Stanton exercises its opt-out after six years and a mere $107 million having been paid.

Max Scherzer, the prize among the fall/winter 2014 free agency class, remained unemployed by at least the week before Christmas. The Yankees, whom too many people figured to be biding their time before offering him the moon, stars, and Van Allen Belt, declared him an "unrealistic" option with two more $20+ million-a-year pitchers on the payroll. "Long-term deals for pitchers over 30 generally don't work out," a "source" told ESPN. That never stopped the Yankees before: "The only one I can recall that did is Mike Mussina." President Randy Levine simply said the chance of bringing another such expensive arm was "virtually none." Some will believe that when they see it.

George F. Will opened 2014′s most important baseball book, A Nice Little Place on the North Side: Wrigley Field at One Hundred, quoting Robert Frost — "I would have written of me on my stone, I had a lover's quarrel with the world" — to open his love letter about his own lover's quarrel ... with the Cubs, though not with their ballpark. He closed it citing William Butler Yeats: "Life is a long preparation for something that never happens."

Jon Lester, Red Sox pitcher, lowballed on a contract extension in spring, dealt to Oakland for the A's to push from running away with the American League West to blowing the wild card play-in game, did the free agency dance, then signed for six years and the second best money on the table ... with the Cubs, many of whose fans' lives have been too-long preparations for something happening the odds of which jumped to 12-1 around Las Vegas after Lester signed.

Baseball's new instant replay rules got their Opening Day tests and passed with flying colors for the most part. Cub manager Rick Renteria called for one on a first-inning bunt and lost; Pirates manager Clint Hurdle called for one on a 10th inning pickoff and won. In the same game. Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez, earlier, challenged Ryan Braun's being safe at first on an infield hit — and that call was revered, too. None of these replays took more than three minutes and Gonzalez's challenge took a mere 58 seconds. The human element went unviolated after all. Baseball's new rules against catchers blocking the plate didn't always go down easily, by contrast. Braun, returning from a suspension for his presence in the Biogenesis scandal last season, was welcome mostly warmly by Brewers fans. With former Brewers owner Selig in the audience.

Horrid Opening Day opening: Angels hitting coach Don Baylor suffered a broken leg catching a ceremonial first pitch from former Angel hero Vladimir Guerrero. Fourteen pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014. Three of them underwent it for the second time. A Detroit schoolboy sent an Opening Day note to his teacher excusing himself due to an appointment with Dr. Verlander. Four days into the season a Cub outfielder, Junior Lake, took the field wearing the wrong road jersey. The night before, a PNC Park fan ran the Great Pierogi Race with the pierogis around the field periphery — and almost completed it. Derek Holland, Rangers pitcher, was no snake in the grass or anywhere else for half the season, after requiring arthroscopic surgery on his knee when he was upended at home by his dog, on the stairs. Are the Cubs trying to curse the other guys now? The dog's name is Wrigley.

Diamondbacks' general manager Kevin Towers promised his boys would be tough, tougher, toughest. They'd take no crap from anyone. They took no crap from anyone, the cowards. They were tough enough to finish ... with baseball's worst regular season record. Before the nightmare ended they hired Tony La Russa as chief baseball officer, La Russa's one-time pitching ace (in Oakland) Dave Stewart to help run the baseball operations, and fired the faulty Towers. Towers's like-minded manager Kirk Gibson was finished near season's end. Bo Porter managed his way out of rebuilding Houston at mid-season, probably doomed by communication conflicts with the front office and over-riding hot pitching hands until they fried. The Cubs threw Renteria overboard for, it is alleged, no reason better than that Rays manager Joe Maddon — he with an apparent knack for prodding young teams to World Series competition — became available, thanks to an opt-out contract clause tied to general manager Andrew Friedman's departure. (Friedman departed to take the same job with the Dodgers; the Rays fumed a bit about whether the Cubs tampered with Maddon.)

Money is almost everything: South Florida financier Gilberto Suarez copped a plea in December in return for a lenient sentence, for helping hustle Yasiel Puig out of Cuba in exchange for a fat chunk of Puig's millions. Money isn't quite everything: Matt Garza, pitcher, blew two million when the Angels tried to reach him with a four-year, $52 million contract offer last winter ... while Garza was vacationing with his wife and with no wish to be disturbed. He settled in due course for $48 million for four years with the Brewers. Brad Penny punched his way out of the Kansas City Royals' spring training camp after a few rough outings and a diminishing chance to make the club in the first place. Francisco Rodriguez got the point when he stepped on a cactus walking barefoot around the Brewer camp.

Mike Trout celebrated a six-year, $144 million contract extension with a 36-ounce steak, a first-at-bat-of-the-season flog over the fence, and the American League's Most Valuable Player award. A Mets prodigy, Jacob de Grom, became the first Met to earn National League Rookie of the Year honours since a child prodigy of thirty years before, Dwight Gooden. Dale Scott, umpire, came out of the closet quietly as half a gay married couple. Just as quietly, the news lasted one cycle. If that. Numerous heterosexual umpires could stand to take a clue from that, regarding their on-field behaviour especially.

Joe West, for example. Jonathan Papelbon, relief pitcher, was suspended several games after the bill of his cap inadvertently brushed against the ever-modest West, during a beef over a lewd gesture's ejection. West grabbed Papelbon by the jersey and shoved him to one side, but got suspended a mere game. Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre, now baseball's reputed disciplinarian, meted out the sentences. He must have forgotten West once shoved him in his early managing days over something even more trite — Torre sought to ask West privately about fining a player for arguing a game-ending third strike) — and was given three days off without pay and lightened $300 in the bank account over it.

Pablo Sandoval celebrated the World Series triumph with the AT&T Park Panda Head fans, then signed a five-year contract with the Red Sox. Another Giants postseason hero, Michael Morse, signed for two years with the Marlins. Eric Hosmer of the Royals called time, swung anyway, whacked a base hit, and had it negated. John Lackey, an American League World Series hero twice in his life, was dealt to the Cardinals during the season and got hit by a pitch for the first time in his life. Once upon a time H-D-H referenced a hit-making team of Motown Records songwriters and producers. (Eddie Holland, Lamont Dozier, and Brian Holland.) In 2014, it referenced a Kansas City bullpen trio who almost helped the Royals win their first World Series since the Reagan Administration. Their nickname was a lot friendlier than the Nasty Boys trio (Rob Dibble, Norm Charlton, Randy Myers) of the 1990 Reds.

Another formidable trio — three keys to the Braves' 1990s and early 2000s dominance — were inducted into the Hall of Fame: pitchers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, and manager Bobby Cox. So was Frank ThomaS. So were Joe Torre and Tony La Russa. The Hall board reduced from fifteen to ten the eligibility years for players under consideration from the Baseball Writers Association of America. That could be quite a traffic jam of eligibles during the next several years to come. (Next year could be one of the lessers: only Ken Griffey, Jr. arrives for the first time.) Also inducted to the Hall: well, one more time: Roger Angell isn't baseball's Homer, Homer was ancient Greece's Roger Angell.

An effervescent 13-year-old honor student, Mo'ne Davis, became the Little League World Series's breakout star (and the first Little Leaguer to make a Sports Illustrated cover, never mind two) after she became the first of her gender to throw a shutout in the tournament, threw out a first pitch before Game Four of the World Series. She also admits to aspirations of reversing Sandy Koufax's athletic trajectory, aspiring to play professional basketball. (Koufax, of course, was a high school basketball whiz who became a Hall of Fame pitcher.) A team of black inner-city Chicago youths, known as Jackie Robinson West, won the Little League's U.S. Championship and a share of the nation's hearts, lost the Series but not those hearts, visited places ranging from major league parks to the White House, and finished the year accused of including several suburban ringers. The Little League denied. Stay tuned.

Dee Gordon, Dodgers second baseman, was traded to the Marlins at the winter meetings. He was waiting in Los Angeles International Airport to fly to Orlando and for news of a deal. He drove to San Diego to meet Marlins officials at the winter meetings ... but his luggage reached Florida before he did. The Dodgers spent the meetings overhauling their defense and parting with a superstar in name only; the Red Sox parted with a superstar in name only to add part one of a three-part rotation overhaul after they couldn't convince Lester to let bygones be bygones. Did I mention that every player for whom the A's dealt at mid-season — possibly blowing a hole in the team's chemistry while they were at it — became ex-A's by the end of the winter meetings? Eleven players changed sides among the Padres, Rays, and Nationals in one mid-December deal, tying it for the fourth-largest of all time. (The record: eighteen players swapped between the Yankees and the Orioles, in the November 1954 deal that made Yankees out of Bob Turley and Don Larsen.)

Former bullpen enfant terrible John Rocker competed on Survivor and was voted off the island in the third week, after trying, but failing to keep his baseball past (warts and all?) quiet. It's been said that Barry Bonds deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, but it's still debatable as to who's inclined to agree with him. Jose Canseco, who probably still thinks (that's debatable) he was baseball's Joe Valachi of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances (if baseball has one, it's probably the late, sad Ken Caminiti), shot a finger off by accident when a handgun he was cleaning discharged accidentally. This was quite the oddity for Canseco, who usually shoots himself in the foot.

Jim Bunning, a Hall of Famer aboard the Golden Era Committee, couldn't convince all his fellows that his old Phillies teammate Dick Allen belongs. The Golden Era Committee elected no one to Cooperstown, with Allen and former Twins star Tony Oliva missing by a vote apiece and Gil Hodges missing by farther. Dick Enberg, longtime NBC sportscaster and current Padres broadcaster, became a broadcasting triple crown winner when he was voted the Hall of Fame's Ford C. Frick Award. Enberg is already a Pete Rozelle Award (football Hall of Fame) and Curt Gowdy Award (basketball Hall of Fame) winner. Vin Scully, a Frick Award winner who never should have been removed from World Series broadcasts, lost his 1988 World Series ring shopping with his wife at Costco in December. Mrs. Scully found the ring when they got home — among the ribs. "Only Scully could lose a ring while putting meat in the bag," her husband cracked. He also affirmed he'd broadcast every Dodger home game and the road games in Anaheim and San Francisco on television in 2015. The gift that keeps on giving, probably until death do Scully and Dodger fans part.

In baseball, death in the family used to mean a player being sent down to the minors. In the real 2014 world, alas, it meant farewell to Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn, who lost a battle against cancer provoked by his longtime smokeless tobacco habit. Alvin Dark, once a scrappy infielder on New York Giants pennant winners, made a sad fool of himself criticizing Latin players on the Giants he managed in the 1960s. He atoned for it soon enough, took over for Dick Williams in due course, and managed the A's to their third straight World Series conquest. Ray Sadecki won 20 games for the 1964 world champion Cardinals. Jim Brosnan, relief pitcher, proved baseball players could be literate and literary, not to mention witty as the day was long. Frank Jobe married his medical skill to Tommy John's ligament replacement and changed the course of baseball pitching.

Ralph Kiner was the power hitting soul of a moribund Pittsburgh Pirates generation (and a protege of Hank Greenberg), outfoxed Branch Rickey often enough that Rickey finally traded the star he never really understood or respected, then became a beloved Mets broadcaster from the day they were born. Jerry Coleman, Yankee infielder, Marine wartime pilot, and San Diego broadcaster of malaprop mastery, slid home standing up. Jim Fregosi was the anchor of the original Angels franchise before he was traded to the Mets for a wild kid named Nolan Ryan, then eventually managed a Phillies pennant winner. Bill Henry was almost the prototype for the situational relief specialist. And, the quiet type. ("When you say hello to him," Jim Bouton once wrote, "he's stuck for an answer.")

Frank Torre was a Braves World Series hero before his kid brother Joe entered the organization, and eventually charmed a nation with his courage approaching a heart transplant as little brother approached managing a World Series. Bob Welch was baseball's last 27-game winner. Don Zimmer wore a plate in his head thanks to a bean ball, managed a few pennant competitors, and foolishly tried picking a fight with Pedro Martinez during a League Championship Series brawl game. Allen Ripley was a 1970s Red Sox pitcher known best as a member of the Buffalo Heads contingency (Bernie Carbo and Bill [Spaceman] Lee were leaders of the pack), named for their nickname for Zimmer, tweaking team administration.

Brad Halsey — pitcher, server of the bomb Bonds hit to tie Hank Aaron on the all-time list, claimant to being high on cocaine when he threw it, descender into possible bipolarity and definite prescription drug addiction — was found Halloween morning at the bottom of a 100-foot cliff. Ryan Bolden–outfielder, a first-round (2010) Angels draft pick, who never advanced past rookie ball and retired after the 2013 season because of back issues — was shot to death in mid-December in an apartment complex fight started ... by two children arguing over candy.

Bill McCool (what a name for a pitcher) was just that as a mid-to-late 1960s Reds reliever. Grant Dunlap needed twelve years just to reach the Show, had a major league career line of 6-for-17 including a triple and a bomb as a pinch hitter for the 1953 Cardinals, then became a baseball coaching legend for Occidental College. Art Quirk (now, there was a name for a pitcher) was an earnest enough rookie to merit a Sports Illustrated feature in a 1962 issue that featured a comely swim champion on the cover — and was out of baseball two years later, headed for a life of business and special-needs-charitiable success. Vern Benson was a longtime coach who got to manage the Braves in 1977 — for one game. And that was because Ted Turner, their then-owner, who'd managed his first and last game the day before, was away appealing a National League rule that managers couldn't have financial stakes in their teams.

The National League's first and next-to-latest to hit postseason pinch hit homers were lost. Oscar Taveras, the next-to-latest, hit a pinch homer one minute (Game 2, NLCS, tying the game) and was killed in a DUI road accident the next. (Actually, it was a fortnight later.) George (Shotgun) Shuba, the first (Game 1, 1953 World Series), was previously the first white teammate to shake hands with Jackie Robinson after a home run in the minor leagues. After baseball, Shuba became a postal inspector and a likable raconteur of vintage Brooklyn Dodger stories — including friendly re-enactments of his once famous handshake with Robinson with black children who met him. Sy Berger was the father of the modern baseball card — he designed the first set of Topps cards in 1952 and worked for Topps for the following forty years. (The Topps 1952 Mickey Mantle is arguably the second most valuable baseball card behind the T206 Honus Wagner.)

Yogi Berra once told a sportswriter his single greatest achievement was getting a comely St. Louis restaurant waitress named Carmen Short to marry him. (Dizzy Trout, Tiger pitcher, upon learning of the nuptials: "Hey Yogi, I hear ya got married. How does your wife like living in a tree?") Once upon a time, when the panel of television's What's My Line figured mystery guest Yogi swiftly enough, host John Daly filled the time by bringing the still comely Mrs. Berra forth as "Yogi's lovely bride." The CBS switchboards jammed with callers demanding to know when and how Berra threw his wife and kids over for this little home-wrecker. Carmen Berra died six weeks after their 65th wedding anniversary. Not for nothing did writers who knew the Berras say theirs was baseball's truest love affair.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:05 PM | Comments (0)

December 30, 2014

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Normally, I name the best announcers of the season in my final power rankings, but I really wasn't crazy about anyone this year. Instead, let's go most improved: Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden. Tirico was badly off his game last year, and I've never cared for Gruden in the booth. But Tirico returned to form, and Gruden did some genuinely nice work as an analyst. Keep it up, guys.

* The Carolina Panthers have won back-to-back NFC South division titles, the first team ever to repeat in that division.

* After leading the Buffalo Bills to their first winning season in a decade, Kyle Orton has retired. It's been a strange career, with ups and downs, and perhaps never stranger than the timing of his departure from the game.

* 42-year-old Adam Vinatieri lost his perfect season in Week 17, pushing a 46-yard field goal attempt wide left.

* Super Bowl XLIX: Seattle Seahawks over New England Patriots. Normally, we like to root for underdogs, but come on — don't you want to see this game?

2014 Week Seventeen NFL Power Rankings

Teams are rated by end-of-season strength, not season-long performance. Brackets indicate last week's rank. Check back tomorrow for our 2014 NFL All-Pro team, plus awards including Most Valuable Player, Coach of the Year, and Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year.

1. Seattle Seahawks [1] — Got a scare against St. Louis, getting shut out in the first half and not taking a lead until the fourth quarter. Predictably, they won with defense: 245 yards allowed, no touchdowns, three turnovers, interception return for a touchdown. Only one of their last six opponents scored more than seven points.

2. Dallas Cowboys [3] — Fourth straight game scoring at least 38 points and winning by double-digits. They're the only team to beat the Seahawks in Seattle this season.

3. New England Patriots [2] — Maybe my memory is failing me, but I can't recall Coach Belichick resting his starters and giving away Week 17 in any previous season. I'm not a fan of that strategy, especially in combination with a first-round bye. Too many players get rusty. This also broke a streak the team could be proud of, 12-0 at home against the Bills since the new stadium opened in 2002.

4. Denver Broncos [4] — Scored 47 points without any touchdowns by Peyton Manning. Denver outgained the Raiders 451-199 and 25 first downs to 10. They've had a first-round bye in the playoffs in each of Manning's three seasons.

5. Green Bay Packers [5] — Led the NFL in turnover differential, +14. It helps when your QB only throws 5 interceptions. Best single-season TD/INT differentials in history:

1. Peyton Manning, +45 in 2013 (55 TD, 10 INT)
2. Tom Brady, +42 in 2007 (50 TD, 8 INT)
t3. Peyton Manning, +39 in 2004 (49 TD, 10 INT)
t3. Aaron Rodgers, +39 in 2011 (45 TD, 6 INT)
5. Aaron Rodgers, +33 in 2014 (38 TD, 5 INT)

Rodgers has led the league in TD/INT +/- for three of the last four seasons.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — Last week, I wondered who their team MVP was. The players voted it to running back Le'Veon Bell, who left Sunday's game with a hyperextended knee. That's pretty mild as knee injuries go, but with a short week to prepare for Baltimore, it's a real question whether Bell will be ready to go. Speaking of injuries, Al Michaels seemed confused in the first quarter: "[Ben] Roethlisberger has been an iron man ... this is only the third time he's played 16 games in a season [because] he's been hurt so much." Roethlisberger is tough, but he definitely has not been an iron man.

7. Indianapolis Colts [6] — Won five of their last six ... against teams with a combined record of 25-55. The loss (to 12-4 Dallas) was a 42-7 blowout that could have been worse. T.Y. Hilton hasn't had a catch in two weeks, and Reggie Wayne is battling a groin injury. Their vulnerable run defense will now face the mighty Bengals of Cincinnati, featuring Jeremy Hill (three straight 100-yard games, 5.1 season average) and Giovani Bernard (over 1,000 yards from scrimmage).

The Colts have clear weaknesses and concerns, but they shut out the Bengals in Week 7 (27-0), the game's in Indianapolis, and the pressure's on Cincinnati to succeed in the playoffs. Colts by 3.

8. Cincinnati Bengals [9] — Last in the NFL in sacks (20) yet held opponents to a 75.8 passer rating, third-best in the NFL. The Bengals are battling multiple injuries in their receiving corps. A.J. Green, who struggled last week with a bruised biceps, now is in the NFL's concussion protocol, leaving his availability for the wild card in question. It's tough to imagine Cincinnati advancing without him. Tight end Jermaine Gresham left Sunday's game with a back injury, and Tyler Eifert was already out with a shoulder issue. It's a lot to overcome for a team seeking its first playoff victory in a quarter-century.

9. Buffalo Bills [10] — Buffalo ranked 4th in the NFL in fewest yards allowed and fewest points allowed, and led the league in sacks (54) and defensive third down percentage (33%). Their defensive front this season (Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes) was awesome. The Bills' leading passer, rusher, and receiver all changed from 2013.

10. Houston Texans [17] — Third winning season in the last four years. J.J. Watt had a team-high six tackles, with three sacks, a forced fumble, and a safety. Watt finished second on the team in tackles, with more sacks (20.5) than the rest of the team combined (17.5), and more than four times as many as any other single player. Here are some of the highlights from his insane season:

Week 1: 2 TFL, sack, FR, PD, blocked XP
Week 3: 5 tackles, 2 TFL, sack, PD
Week 4: INT, 80 ret yds, TD
Week 6: 3 TFL, 2 sacks, FR, 45 ret yds, TD, 3 PD
Week 8: 2 sacks, FF, PD
Week 11: 3 TFL, sack, FF, FR, rec TD
Week 13: 2 sacks, FF, FR, rec TD
Week 14: 4 TFL, 3 sacks, PD
Week 15: 5 tackles, 2 sacks, PD
Week 16: 7 tackles, 3 TFL, sack
Week 17: 6 tackles, 3 sacks, FF, safety

The Jaguars went 0/11 on third downs this week, and Houston ranked 3rd in the league in best defensive third down percentage (34%). For real, if Jadeveon Clowney stays healthy next year...

11. Baltimore Ravens [15] — At Pittsburgh for the first round of the playoffs. Since 2008, when John Harbaugh joined the team as head coach, the Ravens have met the Steelers 16 times, the most meetings of any teams:

2008: PIT swept, 3-0, including 23-14 in AFC Championship Game
2009: 1-1 split, both games by a field goal
2010: 2-1 PIT, including 31-24 in divisional playoff game
2011: BAL swept, 2-0
2012: 1-1 split, both games by a field goal
2013: 1-1 split, both games by a field goal or less
2014: 1-1 split, both games by 20 points

The Ravens have never beaten Pittsburgh in the playoffs. That streak continues this year: Steelers by 3. With Le'Veon Bell healthy, I'd take Pittsburgh by double-digits.

12. Carolina Panthers [22] — 148 defensive return yards and two interceptions returned for touchdowns against Atlanta. Cam Newton led the team in rushing (51 yds, TD). Pro-Football-Reference.com uses a simple rating system (SRS), based on strength of schedule and margin of victory, to evaluate teams. The result is like a point spread against an average team. According to the SRS, the 2010 Seattle Seahawks were the worst team ever to make the playoffs. The bottom five, excluding strike years:

1) 2010 Seahawks, -9.4
2) 1998 Cardinals, -7.4
3) 2004 Rams, -6.0
4) 2011 Broncos, -5.3
5) 1978 Falcons, -4.6

This year's Panthers, who won their last four games in a row, rated at -3.1. All five of the teams above won their first playoff game, and I thought I would be really clever, the one person picking the 7-8-1 NFC South champs to win in the playoffs. But with Arizona struggling and the game in Carolina, the Panthers are 4½-point favorites, and most people who've been paying attention are picking them. We can forget about whatever advantage they might have gained from being underestimated. I still believe they're playing better than the Cardinals, though. Panthers by a field goal.

13. Detroit Lions [11] — One week after Dominic Raiola stomped on an opponent, Ndamukong Suh stepped on Aaron Rodgers twice. The first one might have been an accident, but the second wasn't. Rodney Harrison was horrified: "That was dirty right there ... he put his whole weight on him." The league did the right thing by suspending Suh for Sunday's playoff game against the Cowboys. In a letter to Suh regarding the suspension, NFL vice president of football operations Merton Hanks wrote, "You did not respond in the manner of someone who had lost his balance and accidentally contacted another player who was lying on the ground." This is the ninth time Suh has been fined or suspended by the league for unnecessary roughness or unsportsmanlike conduct.

That stat from FOX about Matthew Stafford falling to 0-16 in road games against winning teams was pretty startling, and it does not bode well for next Sunday. The Lions, with their league-leading run defense, are a tough matchup for Dallas, but the Cowboys are playing too well right now. Dallas by 8.

14. Philadelphia Eagles [12] — Third in the NFL in scoring (29.6 ppg), 32nd in average time of possession (26:40) — more than half a minute behind 31st-place Jacksonville. They allowed 505 yards, including two 150-yard receivers, against the Giants in Week 17. Chip Kelly's style of play is interesting, and it's been effective, but the system also carries an inherent weakness, in the burden it puts on a defense. I wonder whether a team like that can ever really be the best.

15. Kansas City Chiefs [18] — Finished with a winning record, 9-7, and no touchdowns by wide receivers. Here's something else weird: at halftime of Packers/Lions, FOX showed a graphic on the Chiefs/Chargers game, with stats for Alex Smith: 10/14, 106 yards. I don't know where those numbers came from, since Smith didn't play this week.

16. New York Giants [20] — Most challenging team to rate this season, because they were super streaky: 2 L, 3 W, 7 L, 3 W, L. How do you sandwich a seven-game losing streak in between two three-game win streaks? All six Giants victories this year were by double-digits.

Odell Beckham missed the first four games of the season, recovering from an injury. But he led the NFL in receiving yards per game (108.8), finishing 10th in yardage (1,305) and tied for 4th in receiving touchdowns (12) — despite missing the first month of the season.

17. San Diego Chargers [7] — Lost to a team using Chase Daniel at QB. Daniel started the game on fire, too — he completed his first nine passes, for 73 yards, plus a pass interference for 6 yards and 2 rushes for 16 yards. The Chargers actually outgained Kansas City by over 100 yards, but they had three turnovers, plus two more turnovers on downs in the fourth quarter. The first of those particularly hurt, because an apparent 3-yard TD by Eddie Royal was reversed on replay, and instead of a touchdown the drive produced a turnover.

It was the first time since Philip Rivers became a starter that the Chargers had lost in Week 17. That's pretty remarkable, eight years without losing a season finale. Rivers did not play well against Kansas City (7 sacks, 2 INT, 62.3 rating), but he's been playing through injury and has an excuse. One of the league's other really elite QBs also had a very poor performance in Week 17: former Charger Drew Brees (3 INT, 61.4 rating).

18. St. Louis Rams [14] — Most penalty yards in the NFL this season: 1,139. The Rams have a talented defensive core in place. This offseason, it's time to load up on offense, especially players who will contribute in the passing game.

19. Atlanta Falcons [13] — Laid an egg in their most important game of the year. The 34-3 blowout was Atlanta's worst margin of defeat in the Mike Smith era, and it brought that era to an end. I disagree with the decision to fire Smith, but whoever the team brings in will need to improve the run game and especially the defense, which ranked worst in the NFL in yards allowed.

20. Minnesota Vikings [21] — Last year, they went 5-10-1. This year, they traded away Jared Allen, and Adrian Peterson got suspended. The team improved to 7-9, including three wins in the last five games, with both losses by less than a field goal. It's a nice start for head coach Mike Zimmer, but there's a talent deficiency on offense, and that needs to be addressed this offseason.

21. San Francisco 49ers [24] — Jim Harbaugh went 44-19-1 as head coach, with more Super Bowl appearances than losing seasons and more division titles than years missing the playoffs. We've all heard that Harbaugh is a tough guy to work with, but you have to think the team will want to keep most of its staff intact. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, offensive coordinator Greg Roman, and defensive line coach Jim Tomsula all could get consideration for the head coaching vacancy.

22. Arizona Cardinals [16] — Allowed 144 yards to Frank Gore and a 108.5 passer rating to Colin Kaepernick, but the real concern is their offense. Since the injuries to Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, the Cardinals simply don't generate enough points to win in the postseason. Detroit could have a similar problem.

23. New York Jets [26] — Fired Rex Ryan. There's so much to say about Ryan: things he did well, things he did poorly, things he did that were interesting. His players always fought for him, and he's good for the league. I'll be interested to see what the future holds for him. In the meantime, the Jets' priority is surely to find a coach who can get their offense on track.

24. Oakland Raiders [23] — Worst turnover differential in the NFL, -15. The Raiders lost their games to Denver by scores of 41-17 and 47-14.

25. Miami Dolphins [19] — Mike Wallace claims he sat out the second half because he was benched. not because he refused to play. Anyone believe him? Also, what is up with pouty players taking themselves out of the game? If you want to be treated like a man, don't act like a child.

26. New Orleans Saints [25] — Led the NFL in offensive yardage and third down percentage, but finished -13 in turnovers and went 7-9 — with some help from the tanking Bucs. Turning the top-ranked offense in the league into a losing record takes a special kind of awful in other areas. To some extent, their struggles can be explained by injuries, but everyone has injuries. The Saints need to do something dramatic with their defense.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars [29] — Sen'Derrick Marks, the team's best player this season — he was the guy with the $600,000 sack last Thursday — tore his ACL in the finale against Houston. That's a long rehab, and even if Marks is able to play in next year's season opener, it's unlikely he'll show the same form we saw this year.

28. Cleveland Browns [27] — Led the league in opponents' passer rating (74.1). The Browns started 7-4, but collapsed and lost their last five in a row. Two of the Browns' most promising young players, Johnny Manziel and Josh Gordon, this week reinforced the idea that they're not mature enough to make positive contributions to the team. Highly regarded offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is a head coaching candidate, and the team could struggle to replace him if he's hired away. Despite the strong defense and some very good offensive linemen, it looks like a long rebuild for Cleveland. They need playmakers on offense — reliable ones. We say actions speak louder than words, and Manziel's words sound great, but so far he's not following through on the promises he makes.

29. Washington [28] — It sounds like the team will retain both Jay Gruden and Robert Griffin III for 2015. I understand both moves individually, but they don't make sense together. It seems obvious at this point that Gruden doesn't trust RG3, and that Griffin doesn't fit his style of offense. If Washington could go back in time and hire Darrell Bevell instead of Gruden, you have to think they would. It's hard to assess a young quarterback when your coach doesn't want to work with him.

30. Chicago Bears [30] — Fired head coach Marc Trestman, after only two seasons. Two years ago, when the Bears went 10-6 and fired Lovie Smith, I wondered who they could hire that would do better. I'm still wondering that, and apparently the Bears are, too.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — Tanking has never really been a problem in the NFL, but after taking a 20-7 halftime lead, the Bucs pulled many of their best players (including Mike Evans and Lavonte David) for the second half, facilitating a 23-20 defeat and securing the first pick in next May's draft. I guess they really like Marcus Mariota, but in the meantime, they should be ashamed of themselves. The Buccaneers need to have a long talk with Herm Edwards.

32. Tennessee Titans [32] — Concluded the season on a 10-game losing streak. This offseason, they should target a wide receiver, pass rusher, and cornerback. Zach Mettenberger showed enough potential at QB that I'd like to see more of him, and no QB can succeed with a wideout corps led by Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, and Justin Hunter. Tight end Delanie Walker led the Titans in receptions and yards this season. Tennessee also needs impact players on defense. There's a nice core for the interior defensive line, with Jurrell Casey and Sammie Lee Hill, and a dynamic pass rusher would create major problems for opponents. The Titans also never replaced Cortland Finnegan, and could really use a standout to bolster the secondary. If the team can plug one of those holes in free agency, and two in the draft, it should be on the right track moving forward.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

December 29, 2014

Bowl Season: A Lasting First Impression

Christmas Day has come and passed, which means that the holiday bowl season has revved back up to a fever pitch (eight games filled the Friday and Saturday schedule). There are 21 more games to be decided from Monday (Dec. 29th) through Monday (Jan. 12th). In those contests, we'll see traditional powers, great individual performances, "back-and-forths" that won't be resolved until late fourth quarters, and the crowning of a national champion.

And, despite all of those possibilities, I'd have my fill for the season if no other bowls were played until next December. Even though the majority of these games still need to be played, I don't think you'll find a memorable moment to top a duo of incidents that happened in the days leading up to Santa's annual sojourn. The quirk about these incidents is that they sit in stark opposition to each other, at least in terms of how they're probably viewed. The even bigger quirk about them is that they ushered in a couple of newcomers.

This winter marks the starting point for five bowls. Three of them (Camellia, Boca Raton, Quick Lane) were fairly uneventful for those not invested through one of the participating schools. The other two, however, provided finishes that should go down in the annals of bowl history. First, we'll go back to Monday.

The Bad News

Miami hosts one of the traditional standards when it comes to this time of year. The Orange Bowl turns 80-years-old on New Year's Day. But, in this age of cities hosting multiple contests, it's not surprising that South Florida would get another shot at hosting more than one game. The inaugural Miami Beach Bowl was a roller coaster ride that really got going in the fourth quarter. BYU erased a ten-point deficit and turned it into touchdown advantage. It nearly took Memphis half the quarter to respond, but the Tigers finally did, tying the game with 45 seconds to play.

Fast forward to double overtime, Memphis up by 7. Cougar quarterback Christian Stewart tried to hit Jordan Leslie down the seam. An overthrow resulted in Tigers defensive back DaShaughn Terry intercepting the pass and ending the game. That's when all heck broke loose.

Just yards from where the game-ending play was occurring, tensions boiled over. Several players from both teams converged on a two-man tussle, building it into a multi-dozen player brawl. Punches were thrown and blood was spilled. As coaches were trying to separate packs of feuding players, part of me thought, "good that this doesn't happen that often." But there was another part of me thinking, "why don't we see this happen more often?"

This brawl could support the reasoning that there may be too much importance placed on these games. Yes, there's a lot of pride involved in these exhibitions. Yes, it's a chance to showcase your program for future recruits. Yes, I know this is a very isolated incident when compared to the whole of Bowl games. But does the importance come at a cost of our clamor for sportsmanship? Once the regular season comes to an end, that clamor seems to lessen as conferences align to figure out which league has it best. I'm not saying that competition and manners can't, don't, or shouldn't co-exist. But does an incident like the one at Marlins Park put too much emphasis on the former?

The Good News

A couple of days later, the Bahamas hosted the Caribbean's first Bowl game since 1937 (the Bacardi Bowl in Havana). The inaugural voyage of this annual contest matched Central Michigan and Western Kentucky in a battle to see who could finish 8-5. The Hilltoppers scored early, and plenty. By the start of the fourth quarter, WKU sported a 49-14 lead. Then, the Chippewas instituted a bowl staple ... the comeback.

Over a 15:10 span (1:19 of the third to 1:09 of the fourth), CMU scored touchdowns on four consecutive offensive possessions. They forced WKU to punt, getting the ball back on the 25 with :01 on the clock. That's when all heck broke loose. Chippewa quarterback Cooper Rush heaved the ball on an arc. Forty-five yards later, Jesse Kroll made a leaping catch in WKU territory. After a couple moves, he lateraled the ball to Deon Butler, who eventually lateraled it to Courtney Williams, who eventually lateraled it to Titus Davis, who eventually outraced the Hilltopper defenders to the edge and the pylon for an unbelievable score.

I was able to catch to the play as it happened, not comprehending what my eyes were telling me. I've seen Hail Mary passes. (Shoot, the state of Arizona appeared to have a patent on them this season alone.) I've seen those "festival of laterals" game-winners. I can honestly say that I've never seen a play combining the two. Has it ever happened? I'm sure it has ... but I couldn't tell you, for certain. And to top it all off, the play didn't mean jack squat. The proceeding two-point conversion (for the win) was denied, giving Western Kentucky an astonishing 49-48 victory.

The result aside, this absurd circumstance supports the reasoning for why these games have expanded. Yes, the teams in these smaller bowls have no shot at a national championship. Yes, this appears to be in the reviled "everybody gets a trophy" train of thought. Yes, this leads can even lead to coaching changes when teams underperform their expectations. But doesn't the effort count for something? These are the games where coaches can move away from the strategic and more toward the free-for-all. These are the contests that show the passion of a bunch of 18-20-year-olds after their higher goals may have been wiped away. And these are the times when folks from the Snow Belt can kick back for a couple days in places like the BAHAMAS! (Where do I need to send my resume for a graduate assistant job?)

As this next week goes on, the shine will intensify. The stakes will rise as we approach the first ever FBS semifinals. As far as moments, though, this all might turn into background noise. The biggest statements, good and bad, have already been made for the 2014 Bowl Go-'Round.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 6:48 AM | Comments (0)

December 25, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-8)

The Browns lost to the Panthers 17-13 last week. Johnny Manziel left the game late in the second quarter with a hamstring injury.

"That's just a microcosm of our season," Mike Pettine said. "You can't mention our quarterbacks without saying 'pull.'

"Johnny is out for the season. And Brian Hoyer has a shoulder injury. We called up Connor Shaw from the practice squad. He's an undrafted rookie, so he doesn't make a lot of money. His nickname is 'Change.'"

The Ravens offense was sluggish in a 25-13 loss at Houston that all but ended Baltimore's playoff hopes. Joe Flacco completed only 21-of-50 passes for 195 yards.

"I checked with a local ornithologist," John Harbaugh said, "and yes, Ravens do lay eggs.

"Steve Smith blamed our troubles on the offense. He's always going to speak his mind. Steve is certainly not known for pulling punches. But I encourage Steve to challenge his teammates, just not to a fistfight, or an ethics contest, or a debate on the subject 'How in the Hell Did Joe Flacco Win a Super Bowl?'"

The Ravens assault Shaw with seven sacks and Baltimore wins, 24-13.

Dallas at Washington (+6)

With their 42-7 blowout win over the Colts, the Cowboys clinched the NFC East. Tony Romo tossed 4 touchdown passes and became the Cowboys all-time leader in passing yardage.

"Tony Romo, Cowboys All-Time Passing Yardage Leader," Romo said. "Unlike my finger, that's got a nice ring to it.

"This is great. We don't have to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs. Everybody knows how that would turn out."

Washington wins, 26-24.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+7)

The Colts were destroyed 42-7 by the Cowboys at Dallas last week. Having already clinched the AFC South, Indianapolis had little to play for.

"And it showed," Andrew Luck said. "I would give myself a grade of 'F' for that performance, and if I was on your fantasy team, you got 'F'ed,' too.

"And speaking of 'fantasy championships,' it's a fantasy to think we can win a championship. It's looking like we'll be the No. 4 seed in the AFC. That means if we win our first-round game, we'll have to make a trip to New England or Denver. I'm not sure which 'old man' we'll be facing, but I'm guessing 'Winter' will be the one that gives us the most trouble."

The Titans lost 21-13 at Jacksonville last Thursday, and in doing so, improved their position in April's 2015 NFL Draft.

"We'll look at quarterbacks," Ken Whisenhunt said, "but we have loads of other weaknesses that need addressing. If this team was a famous Nashville music hall, it would be called the 'Grand Hole Opry.'"

Titans win, 27-23.

Jacksonville at Houston (-10)

The Texans manhandled the visiting Ravens 25-13 last week, holding Baltimore to only 211 yards of total offense. Case Keenum won for the first time in nine starts, and Randy Bullock kicked a franchise record 6 field goals.

"Keenum got the job done," Bill O'Brien said. "He's not my ideal quarterback, but sometimes you have to make do with what you have. It's like Snoop Dogg said — 'Keenum was the Case that they gave me.'"

The Jags beat the Titans 21-13 last Thursday to improve to 3-12.

"Blake Bortles has been sacked 50 times this year," Gus Bradley said. "J.J. Watt must be drooling. To think Watt won't have at least three sacks of Bortles is pure 'sack-rilege.'"

Houston wins, 25-9.

San Diego at Kansas City (-2½)

The Chargers stayed alive in the playoffs, overcoming a 21-0 deficit to the 49ers to win 38-35 in overtime. Philip Rivers shook off 3 interceptions and passed for 3 second half touchdowns.

"And I did it all with a bulging disc in my back," Rivers said. "Of course, I've been saying 'my back is killing me' all year, but in most of those instances, I was referring to our pathetic running game."

The Chiefs lost, 20-12, at Pittsburgh and will need to beat the Chargers and get lots of help to reach the postseason.

"We also need lots of help to reach the end zone," Andy Reid said. "We are so predictable in red zone situations. It's like defenses know what we're going to do. What we need to do in those situations is do something unexpected and 'break the plain.'"

The Chiefs hold the playoff destinies of several teams in their hands — just not their own. A K.C. win eliminates the Chargers and opens the door for the Ravens and Texans. The Chiefs are in with a win and losses by the Ravens and Texans.

Kansas City wins,. 23-20.

NY Jets at Miami (-6)

The Jets battled the Patriots until the end in a 17-16 loss last week. New York held the Pats to a paltry 231 yards of total offense.

"I'm sure I won't be back as head coach next year," Rex Ryan said. "But trust me, my resume will be out there. In fact, it might be on a banner pulled by a plane flying over a stadium near you. For me, I think things are looking up."

The Dolphins pulled out a 37-35 win over the Vikings last week, winning on a safety after a blocked punt. Ryan Tannehill threw for 4 scores and Dolphins owner Stephen Ross gave head coach Joe Philbin a vote of confidence in comments after the game.

"Apparently," Philbin said, "there's a very fine line between 'hanging' and 'hanging around.'

"And speaking of 'fine lines,' there's some cheap new cocaine on the market that's said to be hot in South Beach. It's called 'Incognito.' What makes it so cheap? It's been 'cut' hundreds of times."

Jets win, 25-20.

Chicago at Minnesota (-6½)

With Jay Cutler's benching, Jimmy Clausen started for the Bears last week and outplayed Matthew Stafford in Chicago's 20-14 loss. Clausen threw 2 touchdown passes in a losing effort.

"I'm mentally and physically drained," Calusen said. "If my name was 'Johnny Manziel,' you could say I was 'Money well spent.'

"Cutler's been very supportive. Before the game, he told me to 'be myself.' I took that to mean 'don't be him.'"

Minnesota wins, 27-23.

Buffalo at New England (-10½)

The Patriots beat the Jets, 17-16, last week and clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with Denver's Monday night loss to the Bengals.

"The Jets always play us tough," Tom Brady said. "Anytime you line up against the Jets defense, you better be at your best. On the other hand, when you line up against the Jets offense, you're always at your best.

"We've got a 'monopoly' on the AFC East. And speaking of 'bored games,' there's nothing riding on the outcome of this game."

Patriots wins, 24-23.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (+3)

The Eagles playoff hopes were crushed at FedEx Field last week, as Philly lost 27-24 to Robert Griffin III and the Redskins.

"Since whipping the Cowboys on Thanksgiving," Chip Kelly said, "we've lost three in a row. Most people over-ate on Thanksgiving; we, on the other hand, we're 'over-rated. "

The Giants whipped the Rams, 37-27, as Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, Jr. hooked up for 2 touchdowns. Beckham was unstoppable with 10 catches for 148 yards and has quickly become the most feared receiver in the NFL.

"Odell continues to amaze me," Manning said. "I think he needs a new nickname. There's 'Junior Say Wow!' Or 'ODB-Gone.'

"Odell had some communication with Michael Jordan recently. I think M.J. said that if there's a superstar athlete icon in the making, his money's on Beckham."

Giants win, 27-21.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+4)

With a loss to the Saints, the Buccaneers clinch the No. 1 pick in April's NFL Draft, where they'll likely choose a quarterback.

"We don't want to do anything to jeopardize that pick," Lovie Smith. "That's why we're replacing that pirate ship in the end zone at Raymond James Stadium with a 'tanker.'"

New Orleans wins, 32-17.

Detroit at Green Bay (-7½)

The stakes are high at Lambeau Field, as the winner of the Lions/Packers clash takes the NFC North crown. The Lions came back to nip the Bears, 20-14, despite a below-average day from Matthew Stafford.

"Once again," Stafford said, "our defense stepped up big time. And our offense 'stepped on' big time. Dominic Raiola stomped on the ankle of Chicago's Ego Ferguson. Dominic claimed it was unintentional. Apparently, the NFL disagrees. They put their foot down and suspended Dominic for one game."

The Packers beat the Bucs, 20-3, and will have to avenge their Week 3 19-7 loss at Detroit if they want to be crowned NFC North champs.

"It's going to be cold in Green Bay," Aaron Rodgers said. "A high of 16 degrees is forecast. And that brings me to the movie 'A Lion in Winter.' It won several Oscars at the 1968 Academy Awards, but it didn't win jack squat at Lambeau.

"Brett Favre is hawking yet another product. It's called 'Copper Fit.' It's a sleeve you put on your elbow or knee. I hear it's selling so well, Favre's thinking about retiring."

Green Bay wins, 30-16.

Carolina at Atlanta (-3½)

The Panthers edged the Browns 17-13 to set up a winner-take-all showdown in Atlanta, with the winner taking the NFC South crown. Cam Newton rushed for a score and passed for another as Carolina improved to 6-8-1.

"Normally," Newton said, "I'm not nervous, but I was a wreck before the Cleveland game.

"My back feels great. We have a great team of doctors here, and they all agree that the keys to healing are lots of rest, and a chauffeur."

The Falcons dominated the Saints at New Orleans 30-14 last week. Matt Ryan passed for 322 yards and a touchdown, and the Atlanta defense forced 4 Saints turnovers.

"That was huge win for us," Matt Ryan said. "Now, we're riding a wave of momentum. And, if Newton can 'keep on trucking,' so can we. It's gonna be a barnburner in Atlanta. All I can say is 'fasten your seat belts."

There can be only one winner. Actually, there will be two — the winner of the game in Atlanta, and the NFC's No. 5 seed.

Atlanta wins, 24-21.

Oakland at Denver (-14)

Peyton Manning's 4 interceptions offset his 2 touchdown passes in the Broncos' 37-28 loss at Cincinnati last Monday night. Denver now needs a win over the Raiders to secure a first-round bye.

"Judging by the way I played in the Jungle," Manning said, "we could be looking at a second-round 'bye.'

"I don't see the Raiders keeping us from a first-round bye. I'll have my way with the Raiders defense. The only thing that can stop Peyton Manning is birthdays."

The Raiders beat the Bills 26-24 for their third win of the year.

"Is Jim Harbaugh coming to Oakland or going to Michigan?" Tony Sparano said. "Is it 'Silver and Black' or 'Maize and Blue?' I'm not sure what color Harbaugh will choose, but I'm guessing it will be 'green.' I guess I'll get 'pink.'"

Denver wins, 35-19.

Arizona at San Francisco (-6)

The Cardinals were blown out 35-6 by the Seahawks at University Of Phoenix Stadium last week, and dropped out of the lead in the NFC West. Arizona could still win the West with a win over the 49ers and a Seattle loss to the Rams.

"We asked our defense to do too much," Bruce Arians said. "We asked our offense to do anything.

"We're starting rookie Logan Thomas at quarterback. Ryan Lindley just didn't get the job done. And he's upset about it. We call that getting a 'Bruce-d ego.'"

The 49ers blew a 21-0 lead and eventually lost, 38-35, to the Chargers in overtime. San Francisco fell to 7-8, third in the NFC West.

"I won't reveal my future plans until after the game," Jim Harbaugh said. "Some say I'm headed to the University of Michigan. While it is true I plan to make a visit to the 'big house,' that's only to visit some of my players."

49ers win, 17-16.

St. Louis at Seattle (-13)

Seattle pummeled the Cardinals 35-6 last week and took over the top spot in the NFC West. The Seahawks will clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win over the visiting Rams.

"There's a lot riding on the outcome of Sunday's game," Marshawn Lynch said. "Do I think the Rams have any chance of beating us? I don't know, but thanks for asking."

Seattle wins, 19-13.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3)

The Steelers clinched a playoff spot with their 20-12 win over the Chiefs last week. Thirty-six-year-old linebacker James Harrison sparked the Steelers defense with 1.5 sacks and 2 tackles for loss.

"James defies age just as well as he defies authority," Mike Tomlin said. "Andy Dalton better watch out. James hates redheads, but not as much as he hates 'figureheads.'"

The Bengals intercepted Peyton Manning four times in Monday night's 37-28 win and clinched a playoff berth. To win the AFC North title, they'll need to defeat the Steelers at Heinz Field.

"Johnny Manziel may be a 'midget,'" Marvin Lewis said, "but Ben Roethlisberger is certainly not one. If Roethlisberger is 'Big Ben,' Johnny must be 'Little Man.''

"Our main goal is to stop Le'Veon Bell. He rushed for 186 yards and scored 3 touchdowns on us in our Week 14 42-21 loss. Bell is one of the league's top backs. It's no surprise he 'smoked' us."

Cincinnati wins, 30-27.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:23 PM | Comments (0)

December 24, 2014

Winners and Losers In NHL's First Half

You would think that half an NHL season would be enough to get a sense of how things will play out. But for the 2014-15 campaign, so many teams have defied expectations — good and bad — while injuries and illness have swept through on an almost unprecedented level. The result is a league where the traditional haves-and-have-nots aren't yet set in stone, and almost anything can happen.

Teams that were left for dead have suddenly surged to life. In the case of the Columbus Blue Jackets, a deathly November has been followed by a miraculous December, all while injuries have remained the top story. In fact, the Blue Jackets continue to face mounting injuries, and even the harshest critics have given the team a pass if they miss the playoffs. However, when they've reached a reasonably healthy roster, Columbus has looked strong and given their fans a glimpse of what might have been.

On the other hand, everyone expected the Buffalo Sabres to be looking more at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft. For the bulk of the season, things certainly went that way, but then the Sabres roared back, much to the dismay of some fans. Given their roster, this will probably all fall to the wayside, but it's added to the uncertainty of the season.

Some teams have had surprisingly strong starts, such as the Calgary Flames. However, advanced statistics pegged the Flames to be paper tigers, and in the last few weeks, they've returned to earth as their stats have regressed to the mean. The New York Islanders and Nashville Predators haven't let up, though, and both upstart teams have played with enough consistency that they should be in the mix come March and April.

Veteran teams have also offered up surprises, though for the wrong reasons. The San Jose Sharks and Washington Capitals both faced internal changes — the former focused on locker room culture, the latter with a new coaching staff. Both struggled to mediocre starts, which given the context of their teams, seemed like a disaster. In December, though, both teams found their stride. Not as much could be said about perennial threats Boston and Los Angeles, who've played below expectations despite .500+ records. The Kings have struggled mightily on the road while the Bruins just look inconsistent from game to game.

As for the mumps, we won't even get started on that. But the illness has certainly showed up in enough locker rooms that the league needs a giant can of Lysol.

What does this all mean? Usually, Christmas becomes a turning point where separation emerges between stronger and weaker teams. There is a points gap in the standings between top and bottom, but the problem is that overall records have come with such unpredictability that no one is safe.

For fans of teams that seem on life support, there's hope. For fans of teams at the top of the mountain, it's a precarious position. But perhaps parity and uncertainty are the greatest gift for hockey fans this holiday season, as that means that the importance of just about every game is heightened. Buckle up, because the race for the playoffs starts early this season.

Posted by Mike Chen at 12:57 PM | Comments (0)

December 23, 2014

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* After last year's intense, dramatic Week 17, the final week of this season feels like a bit of a letdown, with 10 of the 12 teams already decided and only a few interesting battles for seeding. By far the most interesting race, I think, is for the final wild card in the AFC. Here's how each contending team can get in:

Chargers: Beat KC
Ravens: Beat HOU + SD loss
Texans: Beat JAC + SD loss + BAL loss
Chiefs: Beat SD + BAL loss + HOU loss

* Jimmy Claussen has a concussion, so after one week on the bench, Jay Cutler is back in as the Bears' starting QB. That's a little awkward.

* Three teams struggled on the ground this weekend. Well, "struggled" might not be strong enough. Failed. Withered. Embarrassed themselves. The Buccaneers rushed 14 times for 16 yards, while the Bills carried 13 times for 13 yards. But neither can match the futility of the Colts, whose 10 rushes against the Cowboys produced 1 yard. That was the worst rushing performance since a meaningless Week 17 matchup in 2007, when Dallas gained only 1 yard on 16 attempts.

* Sen'Derrick Marks' $600,000 sack came on a three-man rush. Man, how do you give up a game-ending sack on a three-man rush?

* The Broncos signed Emmanuel Sanders for a fraction of what the Jets are paying Eric Decker, and Sanders is outplaying anything we've seen from Decker. Great signing.

Week 16 Rant: Simms is Right, Simms is Wrong

Phil Simms is right

"You know, you almost wonder sometimes, if you said, 'Don't block anybody, let's fair catch it,' if you wouldn't end up being better, because the number of penalties..."

You wouldn't actually fair catch every punt, but you do see a ton of penalties on kick returns, so I get what Phil Simms was saying here. In fact, if you applied his reasoning to kickoffs, I think he's on to something. You obviously don't want to fair catch any kind of normal kickoff, but it's standard practice right now to return kickoffs even from deep in the end zone, and that's where Simms is right.

So many things can go wrong on a kickoff. You could fumble and give the other team outstanding field position. You or a teammate could get hurt. Injury rates are higher on return plays, which is why the league moved kickoffs back to the 35-yard line, to create more touchbacks and reduce injuries. You could fail to reach the 20-yard line, where you would have gotten automatically by taking a knee. And your team could commit a penalty. I don't want kickoff returners measuring their depth from the goal line right before fielding a kick, and I'm sure Phil Simms doesn't either, but running kicks out from more than halfway deep in the end zone seems like a foolish risk, where many more things can go wrong than right.

Phil Simms is wrong

"If you go for it in a situation like this, your owner's gonna come down after the game and go, 'what were you thinking?'"

That was with a little under 1:30 remaining in the Thursday night game. Jacksonville led 21-13 and had 4th-and-1 at the Titans' 37-yard line, with Tennessee out of timeouts. Let's review the different directions you can go here:

1. Go for it. If you gain the yard, you can kneel to run out the clock. If you fail, Tennessee gets the ball at or near its own 37, with about 1:10 to go and no timeouts.

2. Try a field goal. It's a 55-yard kick, which is in Josh Scobee's range, and if he makes it you're up by 11, almost certain of victory. But Scobee's had three blocks this year, and even a normal miss gives Tennessee possession at its own 45.

3. Punt, the course Simms recommended. Barring a fumbled return, Tennessee definitely gets a chance to tie, working with about 1:05. A good punt might leave them around the 10-yard line, while a touchback would net only 17 yards and leave them at the 20. Punter Bryan Anger had one blocked last week, his second of the season. A block would be disastrous.

Now let's rank scenarios, best to worst...

1. Go for it and get the first down. You kneel out the clock and the game is over.

2. Make a field goal. You're up by 11 and you will win.

3. Punt it and pin them deep. They've got a ton of ground to cover, not much time, and their offense stinks.

4. Punt it for a touchback. You only changed field position by 17 yards. That was kind of pointless.

5. Go for it and get stuffed. The Titans have 63 yards to go.

6. Miss a field goal. 55 yards to go.

7. Turnover that allows a return. Sack-fumble, interception, blocked kick or punt.

Simms mocked every choice except the punt, but I disagree, pretty strongly. Simms was sure it was the only option, and I don't even think it was the best. Anger is terrible about avoiding touchbacks. This season, he has 11 punts down inside the 10, compared to 9 touchbacks and 2 blocks. Your odds of substantially improving field position are only 50-50, and a blocked punt would be catastrophic. The best course of action is to go for it. If you make it, you win. Even if you don't make it, that's only about a 17-yard swing compared to a touchback. I would go for it every time.

Head coach Gus Bradley agreed with Simms, though, and sure enough, Anger booted a touchback. Tennessee's drive fizzled out at the Jacksonville 45-yard line, and the Jags won anyway, but it was an unnecessary risk. Going for it gives you a good chance to clinch victory, and the downside is minimal. A block is disastrous and a touchback is pointless, but gaining one yard ends the game. Punting didn't cost them the game, but it was the wrong decision.

Simms not only disagreed with the best course of action, he made fun of it. It's this kind of backward thinking that helps intelligent coaches like Bill Belichick stand out.

Phil Simms is sarcastic

On Sunday, Jim Nantz mentioned the Cowboys' interest in Johnny Manziel, that Jerry Jones wanted to draft Manziel instead of Zack Martin. Simms deadpanned something to the effect of, 'That would have been great.' Martin has excelled, and Manziel has fizzled. But I'm glad the world is now acknowledging how foolish it would have been to replace Tony Romo with Manziel. I don't have any ill will toward Johnny Football, I just don't think he made any sense for Dallas.

2014 Week Sixteen NFL Power Rankings

Teams are rated by current strength, not season-long performance. Brackets show previous rank.

1. Seattle Seahawks [1] — "I hope people didn't go to bed early tonight, because we have seen a show here in the second half ... They are the team to beat, Al."

In dealing Arizona its only home loss of the season, the Seahawks gained 596 yards and won, 35-6.

2. New England Patriots [2] — Third straight week with a different leading rusher. LeGarrette Blount looked to be the man after he led the team in Weeks 12-14, but Jonas Gray led in Week 15 and Shane Vereen against the Jets. On the off chance that you made your fantasy league's championship game with Patriot RBs in the lineup, Bill Belichick wanted to make sure you wouldn't win. The real Patriots have clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

3. Dallas Cowboys [7] — Third straight game scoring at least 38 points. Playing with a broken hand, DeMarco Murray carried 22 times for 58 yards, his second straight week averaging 2.6 per attempt. The Cowboys were up 14-0 before Murray touched the ball, and it was clear before halftime that they would win easily. Why give such a heavy workload to an injured player? I can only guess that the Cowboys were trying to prove a point, which is incredibly misguided. Discretion is the better part of valor.

4. Denver Broncos [3] — Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden did a nice job in the MNF announcing booth this year, but they were totally wrong this week. Like, factually wrong. They repeatedly mentioned that the Broncos were running more this season, which just is not true.

The Broncos ranked 15th in rushing last season — above average — and if you exclude runs by the quarterback, Denver ranked fourth in the NFL in 2013. Fourth. I just don't see any need to be dishonest about these things; why make up lies for your viewers?

Their dedication to the "Denver is running more" storyline made the second half narrative even more puzzling ... it was all about how the Broncos couldn't get their run game going, so Peyton Manning had to start airing it out. C.J. Anderson finished the game with 18 carries for 83 yards (4.6/att) and a touchdown. More of that was in the second half, but it wasn't like the run game was totally ineffective. The stats just didn't bear out the story.

This offense looks best, though, when Manning is throwing the ball. They need some balance on the offense, but there's just no way this team makes a playoff run with some magic from Peyton Manning. I am really questioning the way they handled the Julius Thomas ankle injury in Week 11. I think they tried to get him back too quickly, and he's clearly not 100% right now. In hindsight, they should have taken it easy with his recovery time and just made sure he'd be ready for the playoffs.

5. Green Bay Packers [5] — Home field hasn't provided an obvious advantage in recent playoffs. Since 2008, teams that went 8-0 at home during the regular season are 4-5 at home in the postseason. Teams with a sub-.500 road record in the regular season have a better record on the road (10-7) than teams that went 7-1 at home do in their own stadiums (10-8). Here are the 8-0 losses:

2013: 4-4 SD beat 8-0 CIN
2011: 5-3 NYG beat 8-0 GB
2010: 6-2 NYJ beat 8-0 NE
2009: 3-5 BAL beat 8-0 NE
2008: 3-5 ARI beat 8-0 CAR

So it makes sense to be skeptical of home field advantage in the playoffs. And yet, you have to believe home field will be a big deal in the NFC postseason. Check out the home and away marks for the five teams we know are in:

The Packers, Cardinals, Lions, and Seahawks are all significantly scarier at home, while Dallas appears to maintain a bizarre home field disadvantage. Playoff history aside, I wouldn't want to face the Seahawks in Seattle, or the Packers in Green Bay.

6. Indianapolis Colts [6] — A blowout from the start. They trailed 28-0 before gaining a first down, and removed Andrew Luck in the third quarter, already down 35-0. The 42-7 final was the team's worst margin of defeat, and first time scoring 7 or fewer points in a game, since drafting Luck in 2012.

7. San Diego Chargers [12] — Despite a bulging disk in his back, Philip Rivers will play at Kansas City in Week 17. The Chiefs are favored by a field goal.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers [15] — Antonio Brown leads the NFL in receptions (122), receiving yards (1,570), and receiving first downs (80). He's also tied for third in TD receptions (12). Meanwhile, Le'Veon Bell has 2,115 yards from scrimmage, 11 TDs, and a 4.8 rushing average. And of course, Ben Roethlisberger is having one of his best seasons. Who is the MVP of this team?

9. Cincinnati Bengals [16] — Won a huge game without their best player. A.J. Green was on and off of the field, basically a part-time decoy, and they never wavered. The Bengals were noticeably fired up for this game; they seemed more motivated than the Broncos. Cincinnati defenders were credited with 8 hits on Peyton Manning (4 of them by Carlos Dunlap), which is a lot, but it seemed like even more. They also had four interceptions, one of them returned for a touchdown. Yet I'm hesitant to say they won with defense. When the final score is 37-28, can you really say you won with defense?

10. Buffalo Bills [4] — Kyle Orton reached two career milestones on Sunday: 100 passing TDs, and 1,000 sack yards lost. Among active QBs, he is the 19th with triple-digit TDs, and the 22nd with 1,000 sack yards. A team like Buffalo beating the Packers and losing to Oakland in back-to-back weeks is why we have the expression any given Sunday.

11. Detroit Lions [13] — Dominic Raiola is trash. He claims to have stomped on Ego Ferguson by accident, but this is the same Raiola who admitted taking cheap shots at the Patriots a month ago. Raiola has not earned the benefit of the doubt. The NFL suspended Raiola for Week 17 against Green Bay, but it should have also included the Lions' first playoff game. If the league is at all serious about player safety, meaningful punishments for dirty players are 100 times more important than 15-yard penalties for accidentally touching the quarterback's head. We were all horrified in August, when the league gave longer suspensions for marijuana use (4 games) than domestic violence (2 games). It's even more incongruous, I think, that the league punishes recreational drug use more harshly than on-field violence (1 game). What Raiola did happened in a game, and injured an opponent. All weed does is hurt the league's image. I guess we know which one the commissioner thinks is four times as important.

12. Philadelphia Eagles [8] — Booing injuries is not okay. Let's say the guy's faking it nine times out of 10 — and it's nowhere near that often, but let's say it was — that one other time, you're booing a human being who has a torn ACL, or a concussion, or a dislocated shoulder. One of these days, Philly fans are going to boo somebody like Darryl Stingley or Kevin Everett. The shame of booing someone who is seriously injured is 100 times worse, immeasurably worse, than whatever positives we can draw from booing the fakers. I would remind fans of every team to act in a way that you can be proud of, that your kids can look up to. When I was growing up, my dad taught me you always cheer for an injured player when he leaves the field, even if he's on the other team. What did your dad teach you?

13. Atlanta Falcons [18] — Week 11 was remarkable for blowout upsets: four 8-point underdogs won by at least 15. This weekend wasn't quite as shocking, but it still saw three six-point favorites lose by double digits: the Giants covered the spread against St. Louis by 16½, the Texans covered against Baltimore by 18, and the Falcons beat the spread against New Orleans by 22.

14. St. Louis Rams [9] — I don't understand. How does a team that's gone three weeks in a row without allowing a touchdown suddenly give up four to the Giants? New York gained 514 yards, the most all season, and the most St. Louis had allowed all year. Eli Manning set season-highs for yardage (391) and passer rating (148.8).

The Giants more than tripled the score allowed by St. Louis in its previous three games. This is a weird league sometimes.

15. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Effective red zone defense prevented a blowout. The Texans kicked six short field goals, all 40 yards or less, in their 25-12 victory over the Ravens. The first half was particularly ugly. Joe Flacco went 3-of-18 for 27 yards and 2 INTs, with a sack for -10 yards. Altogether, Baltimore gained just 31 yards in the first half. Actually, Houston wasn't much better. Case Keenum completed under 50% of his passes, for under 200 yards, and the teams combined for 761 punt yards.

16. Arizona Cardinals [11] — Second straight game without a touchdown. The defense is a lot better than we saw in the fourth quarter on Sunday night, but you can't win if you don't score.

17. Houston Texans [22] — Won the Kubiak Bowl, shutting down the offense coordinated by their former head coach. Houston still has a realistic shot at the playoffs. If the Chiefs beat the Chargers (they're favored), and the Browns upset the Ravens (weird things happen in division rivalries), and Houston holds serve against Jacksonville (they're double-digit favorites), the Texans are in, for the third time in four years. It's not likely, but it is a realistic possibility.

18. Kansas City Chiefs [14] — Lost four of their last five. Last year's Chiefs started 9-0, but finished 11-5 and lost their first playoff game. This year's Chiefs began 7-3 and are now 8-7. It's disappointing to see a team that humiliated the Patriots and beat the Seahawks struggle so badly down the stretch, for the second year in a row.

19. Miami Dolphins [17] — Four of their last five opponents have scored four or more TDs. Ownership announced that Joe Philbin will get a fourth season as head coach. I don't understand why people think this is such a terrible decision.

1. If you pay any attention at all, it is obvious that the most successful teams tend to be those who are patient with coaches, and that the least successful teams are those who change the head coach every two seasons.

2. The Dolphins had a losing record in 2009. They had a losing record in 2010. They had a losing record in 2011. Under Philbin, they've gone 7-9, 8-8, and if they beat the Jets at home in Week 17, 9-7. How do you fire a coach who's showing improvement each season?

20. New York Giants [23] — Three straight wins since they blew that lead against Jacksonville. But really, let's just talk about Odell Beckham some more. Beckham has out-gained the opponents' leading receiver for eight games in a row. Over those eight games — exactly half a season — Beckham has 1,014 receiving yards. In the past three weeks, Beckham has at least 130 yards and 1 TD in every game. The Giants are favored against Philadelphia.

21. Minnesota Vikings [19] — Back-to-back two-point losses. Actually, their last five losses combined were by only 17 points. They haven't lost by double-digits since Week 6. It's easy to blame this one on long snapper Cullen Loeffler, but when your defense gives up 36 first downs, 493 yards, and 5 touchdowns against a mediocre Dolphins offense, you've got to spread that blame around.

22. Carolina Panthers [26] — Three consecutive wins, and four would guarantee a second straight NFC South title, the first team ever to repeat in that division. They outgained the Browns 404-228 and 27 first downs to 8.

23. Oakland Raiders [27] — Started 0-10, but they're 3-2 since, including wins over the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bills. How do you only win three games, but they're all against pretty good teams? Watch out, Broncos.

24. San Francisco 49ers [21] — Four straight losses, and they haven't beaten anyone with a winning record since Week 5. Four points from their Saturday night loss to San Diego:

1. Holy cow, how many injuries in that game? Both teams are beat up heading into the regular season finale.

2. The 49ers really miss their injured linebackers. They played this week without NaVorro Bowman, Patrick Willis, Chris Borland, and Ahmad Brooks — and it showed.

3. Colin Kaepernick makes a ton of mental errors. He's especially poor about anything related to clock management. In the fourth quarter, with the Niners leading 35-28 and 3:38 left on the clock, Kaepernick rolled left and ran out of bounds for a one-yard loss. He lost yardage and stopped the clock! Slide! Or throw the ball away! What are you doing?

4. If I didn't already know that referee Jeff Triplette was the King of Incompetence, I would have been sure he was drunk. Triplette's hesitant, stuttering announcements were painful to listen to. He didn't seem sure where he was or what was going on.

25. New Orleans Saints [20] — They've lost four straight home games, and won three straight road games. That would be weird for any team, but even more so for a team that typically has a colossal home field advantage. From 2008-13, the Saints were 37-11 (.771) in New Orleans, and 26-22 (.542) away. The trend held in the first two months of the 2014 season: the Saints began this year 3-0 at home (including a three-TD win against the Packers, their first loss after R-E-L-A-X), but 0-4 on the road. Evidently something changed around Halloween, but no one knows why.

26. New York Jets [25] — Fewest TDs in the NFL, 23. The defense played well against New England, but the offense went 0/3 in the red zone. You just can't settle for short field goals and expect to win, especially when you're playing a good team. The underdog has to take chances.

27. Cleveland Browns [24] — Could play Week 17 without either of their top QBs. Johnny Manziel missed the second half with a hamstring injury and will not play against the Ravens, while Brian Hoyer suffered a shoulder injury and his status is uncertain. There are no other QBs on the roster, meaning practice squad rookie Connor Shaw, undrafted out of South Carolina, could start the finale in Baltimore.

That was a heads-up play by Jordan Poyer, on his didn't-count TD return. It's a shame that got called back.

28. Washington [31] — If Cody Parkey had made his 34-yard field goal, it might have gone to overtime. If Parkey had also made his 46-yard field goal, the Eagles might have won outright. That said, Washington played smart and did a good job of avoiding big mistakes. The team is 4-11, but it takes some of the sting out when you've defeated your two biggest rivals.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars [30] — Rich Eisen said this after the game and I didn't believe it could be true, so I checked. Jordan Todman's 62-yard TD was not the longest rush by a Jaguar since 2000. Fred Taylor alone topped that run half a dozen times, and it's pretty obvious what happened: Eisen either misread a card or he was shown a typo. Todman's run was the longest since 2010, when Rashad Jennings took off for a 74-yard TD against the Raiders. 2010, not 2000.

30. Chicago Bears [28] — They went 5-11 in Lovie Smith's first season, but he was taking over a bad team. In eight subsequent years with Smith, the Bears were at least 7-9 every season, won three NFC North titles, and appeared in Super Bowl XLI. After a 10-6 record in Smith's final season, Chicago has dipped to 8-8, and now 5-10. Oops.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [29] — Out-gained 431-109 and 23 first downs to 6. They averaged 1.1 yards per rush and took 7 sacks in just 33 dropbacks.

32. Tennessee Titans [32] — All three QBs have roughly the same number of pass attempts. How do they compare statistically?

I included sacks in the Attempts and Yardage categories. Rushing TDs count in that column, and INTs also include lost fumbles. I did not count rushing yardage, which would favor Locker. But it seems obvious that Whitehurst has been the most productive. I don't mean to suggest that he's their quarterback of the future, but I think a lot of people have been too hard on Whitehurst, who's been reasonably effective in a low-potency offense. He's at least earned a job as someone's backup.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:43 PM | Comments (0)

December 22, 2014

Can Anyone Stop Kentucky?

Let's cut to the obvious: Kentucky looks invincible.

They've won every game by double digits, leading the nation with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. They lead the nation in scoring defense, holding teams to a mere 47.7 points a game. Controlling the ball, their assist to turnover ratio of 1.54:1 is seventh best in the country.

The Wildcats have taken on the nation's perennial powers and turned them into Big Blue Clinics. Kansas? Smoked them by 32. North Carolina? Cruised to a 14 point win.

UCLA? Held them to seven first half points, then won by 39.

Needless to say, Louisville, as well as everyone else, has their work cut out for them. This team is already getting "potential best team ever" consideration. They shoot well. They crash the boards. Their defense is simply relentless. They're deep, fast, athletic ... dangerous.

This is the kind of team that John Calipari has been wanting to build since he arrived in Lexington. This is the kind of team Wildcat fans have been anxiously waiting for since UK hired Calipari. They look unstoppable.

So, the question looms. Can anyone beat the Wildcats?

On any given night, yes. Chaminade took down Ralph Sampson and Virginia. NC State won the 1983 title over Houston, despite media predictions that the Wolfpack's best chance of winning was a bus wreck. Villanova saved their best shooting performance to beat Georgetown and win a title. So it's always possible.

But, to do so, a team will have to be at its absolute best. Then, they have to do the following...

1) Shoot well early. Kentucky's length and defensive prowess is what suffocates opponents. The Wildcats aren't scoring in the hundreds to win games; they're blowing them out on the defensive end. For a team to have a chance, they have to have speed, spread the floor and be able to establish an offensive rhythm early by scorching the nets to start the game.

2) Crash the boards. Kentucky owns the glass and forces teams to have just one shot on most possessions, while allowing themselves frequent chances to strike on the offensive side. Your defense has the unenviable task of blocking out Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson in the paint, so shutting them down isn't going to happen. Containing them and scrapping for rebounds (and any loose ball at that) is essential.

3) Get Willie Cauley-Stein on the bench. It's easier said than done, as Kentucky tends not to get into too much foul trouble. However, a team that can draw fouls on the Cats early can benefit from it, especially if that Cat is Cauley-Stein. UK is extremely deep and talented at every position, so it's not a huge talent hit if you send Cauley-Stein to the bench early. It is, however, a leadership issue. He's a phenomenal leader, a massive defensive presence, and a rare veteran for any Calipari squad. If you frustrate him early and keep him off the court, your chances of winning certainly improve.

4) Hack-A-Cat. The team that gave Kentucky one of its best challenges was the Ivy League's Columbia, who attacked early and forced Kentucky to come back. They also sent Kentucky to the line often, where the Achilles heel of the Wildcats is again revealed. Kentucky's not the best at free throw shooting and if your team is deep enough (though those teams are few and far between), you can slow down Kentucky's offensive rhythm by putting them on the line. The key to this though is that you still have to shoot well on your end. Columbia failed to do this, as have most other teams that have faced the Wildcats.

A team can pull this off, but it'd be tough. Real tough.

That's why, for the first time in decades, the pursuit of an undefeated season is within reach. Even without Alex Poythress, Kentucky's got all the pieces to make history.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:48 PM | Comments (0)

December 18, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 16

Note:the quotes in this article are fictional.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-3)

The Jaguars lost 20-12 at Baltimore in a game dominated by the defenses. Blake Bortles was sacked 8 times by an aggressive Ravens defense, and the Jags never reached the end zone.

"Blake knows his offensive line is trying its hardest," Gus Bradley said. "You know, some quarterbacks buy their offensive linemen gifts. Blake did that, and was probably overly generous in doing so. He went so over budget, his pocket collapsed.

"It's not often the Jaguars play on national television, but Thursday night at EverBank Field is our chance to show the country what we're all about. And nothing says 'watch' like a pair of 2-12 teams."

The Titans lost to the visiting Jets 16-11 last week. It was Tennessee's eighth straight loss and dropped them to 2-12 on the season.

"Jake Locker was hurt, again," Ken Whisenhunt said. "This time, it's his left shoulder. It's his non-throwing shoulder. Here's the freaky part — he's got two of them.

"Charlie Whitehurst will start. Not that I really want him to, but with all the injuries at the quarterback position, I have no other choice. And, at this point, I really don't care, so I just said 'Chuck it.'"

Jacksonville wins, 19-9.

Philadelphia @ Washington (+8)

The Redskins lost to the visiting Giants, 24-13, last week at FedEx Field, sending the 'Skins to their 11th loss of the year. Colt McCoy re-injured his neck early in the game, and Robert Griffin III took over.

"That's six straight loses," Jay Gruden said, "and with the Eagles and Cowboys coming up, I don't think it will get better. If you could use the name of a certain Redskins Hall of Fame offensive lineman to describe our outlook, it would be 'Grimm.' Russ Grimm was a 'Hog;' RG3 is a 'goat.' And yes, I have read George Orwell's 'Animal Farm; and yes, I realize I'm 'Napoleon.' And yes, Daniel Snyder wants this 'pig skinned.'

"You've probably heard about the U.S. Senate report. And what they found was no surprise — watching the Redskins is torture. Talk about 'capitol punishment.'"

The Cowboys avenged their Thanksgiving blowout loss to the Eagles with a convincing 38-27 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night. Tony Romo threw 3 touchdown passes to Dez Bryant, all on cornerback Bradley Fletcher.

"Maybe our defensive game plan was lacking," Chip Kelly said. "I know it wasn't November 27th, but the 'Boys were saying 'Thanks, for giving Bryant man-to-man coverage.' Fletcher could possibly end up on the bench, or on waivers, or even in the hospital, in the 'burn' unit.

"But we're headed to the nation's capitol with a convincing win in mind. And the presence of Mark Sanchez means we'll do that with our running attack. In this season of protest, a 'march on Washington' seems entirely appropriate."

LeSean McCoy rushes for 102 yards and 2 scores and the Eagles win, 26-23.

San Diego @ San Francisco (-2½)

The 49ers were officially eliminated from the playoff race with a 17-7 loss to Seattle last week. In two losses to the Seahawks this year, San Francisco managed just 10 points.

"It's tough to see our playoff hopes dashed," Colin Kaepernick said. "If you don't mind, I'd like to take the podium in the media room for a moment of silence, in honor of our season."

The Chargers lost 22-10 at home to the Broncos, falling to 8-6 and seeing their wildcard hopes flicker. Philip Rivers struggled, with only one TD pass against 2 interceptions.

"We've lost to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in consecutive weeks," Rivers said. "I guess I can't run with the big dogs, unless you consider the litter of children I've fathered. Then I'm top dog."

Chargers win, 24-21.

Minnesota @ Miami (-7)

Minnesota lost a 16-14 at Detroit, losing their upset bid when Blair Walsh's desperation 68-yard field goal attempt came up short. The Vikes are now 6-8 and face the 7-7 Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium.

"Unlike a certain charter on Lake Minnetonka," Teddy Bridgewater said, "the kick didn't have enough 'leg.'

"Adrian Peterson's ban was upheld, meaning he's suspended until at least April. But the player's union is suing the NFL on behalf of Adrian. He's reluctant to get the courts involved — I think he's had enough dealings with 'case workers.'"

The Dolphins were hammered at New England 41-13, as the Patriots turned a close game at halftime into a blowout. Miami fell to 7-7 and is likely out of the running for a wildcard berth.

"Obviously," Joe Philbin said, "Bill Belichick and his coaching staff made the right adjustments at halftime. We didn't. For that reason, our talents will be staying in South Beach come January.

"This team is headed in the right direction. I see a trip to the playoffs in their future. And I see a trip to the general manager's office in mine."

Miami wins, 27-17.

Baltimore @ Houston (+4)

The Texans lost 17-10 to the Colts as Indy clinched the AFC South. Ryan Fitzpatrick was lost for the year with a broken leg, and Case Keenum will start for the Texans against the Ravens.

"Ryan got hurt running the ball," Bill O'Brien said. "And that's the closest to a 'quarterback keeper' this franchise has seen in Houston.

"As long as J.J. Watt is in the lineup, we have a chance to win. If Terrell Suggs is 'T-Sizzle,' does that make Watt 'J-Wizzle?' Sounds a little goofy, but it does rhyme with 'M-V-Pizzle.'"

The Ravens held off the visiting Jaguars 20-12 last week to improve to 9-5 and remain in the picture for a playoff spot. Baltimore sacked Blake Bortles 8 times.

"Bortles has a great arm," Terrell Suggs said, "but he's a rookie. You could say he's a little 'green,' so in true holiday spirit, we lit him up like a Christmas tree."

Baltimore wins, 23-16.

Detroit @ Chicago (+7)

The Lions nipped the Vikings 16-14 last week, wiping out a 14-0 second quarter deficit to take their third consecutive win. Matt Prater's 33-yard field goal with 3:38 remaining was the game winner.

"It looks like the NFC North crown could come down to Week 17 at Lambeau Field," Jim Caldwell said. "Everybody's 'buzzing' about that game, especially Prater. But we can't look past the Bears. If you turn your back on the Bears for one second, someone might speak their mind.

"No one fears playing in Chicago anymore. I think most of that has to do with Jay Cutler. He's 'sucked' the 'wind' out of the 'Windy City.' That makes it the '-Y City.' Confusing? Well, you can't mention 'Jay Cutler' and 'Chicago' without asking 'Y?'"

The Bears' forgettable season continued with a 28-0 loss to the Saints at Soldier Field last Monday night. Cutler threw 3 interceptions, and now leads the NFL with 18.

"That's one more than Blake Bortles," Cutler said. "If you would have asked players before the season who would lead that category, I'm guessing most defensive backs would have 'picked' me. Well, they did, and they have.

"I've put the Aaron Kromer situation behind me. In fact, I've put Kromer himself 'behind' me. That way, I can be sure I can get his true feelings."

Detroit wins, 31-17.

Cleveland @ Carolina (even)

Derek Anderson, in for the injured Cam Newton, led the Panthers to a crucial 19-17 win over the Buccaneers. Anderson passed for 277 yards and a touchdown.

"And most importantly," Anderson said, "no 'turnovers.' Is anyone surprised? I'm a former All-Pro quarterback. Did anyone think I was just going to roll over?

"I'm just here until Cam is able to return. I don't fancy myself a starter. I'm basically an NFL journeyman. I'm a poor man's Don Strock. The only time I've been 'upside down' in a car is on a loan."

In his first start for the Browns, Johnny Manziel struggled mightily, with only 80 yards passing and 2 interceptions, as the Bengals smashed Cleveland 30-0.

"There were thousands of No. 2 jerseys in FirstEnergy Stadium," Mike Pettine said. "Apparently, it was 'Tim Couch Day' in Cleveland.

"Manziel called the game his worst as a football player. Just think, this all could have been avoided if Johnny would have just had a Snickers bar. For Johnny, there's definitely 'room' for improvement. And in that room is a bench."

Cleveland wins, 23-20.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-6½)

The Falcons dug themselves a 13-0 hole against the visiting Steelers at the Georgia Dome and never recovered in a 27-20 loss. Now 5-9, Atlanta can still win the NFC South if they win their final two games.

"We control our own destiny," Mike Smith said. "In the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, that destiny will have to be 'remote-controlled.'

"We've got Julio Jones back for the Saints game. His hip pointer is feeling better. To that I say, 'Hip Hip Ju' Ray!' A Marine who's a Falcons fan might say, 'Hip Hip Ju' Rah!' Al Pacino might say 'Hip Hip Ju' Hah!'"

The Saints won handily at Soldier Field, bashing the Bears 31-15 last week, and at 6-8, lead the 5-8-1 Panthers by a half-game in the NFC South. Drew Brees passed for 375 yards and 3 touchdowns.

"Finally," Brees said, "a good day for a quarterback in Chicago. I'm surprised I got out of Soldier Field with my head intact. If there ever was a place where you'd expect to see a bounty on a quarterback, Chicago just passed New Orleans as the most likely.

"We can clinch the NFC South with a win and a Carolina loss. So we're pulling for the Browns against the Panthers. I like their chances. Cleveland's beaten all three NFC South teams they've played this year. Not that they're bragging."

Saints win, 37-34.

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay (+10½)

Aaron Rodgers suffered through his worst day of the season in a 21-13 loss at Buffalo last week. Rodgers passed for only 185 yards and threw 2 interceptions as the Packers fell to 10-4.

"I looked at my stat sheet after that game," Rodgers said, "and I told it I need to 'pump you up.'

"If I never go to Buffalo again, I'll be happy. I was intercepted twice by a guy named 'Rambo.' He's a free safety, which is also commonly referred to as a 'drifter.' We had sole possession of first in the NFC North, but after Rambo's big day, we are '(St)allone' no more."

The Bucs swallowed a tough 19-17 defeat to the Panthers in Charlotte last week. Tampa is 2-12, tied with the Titans, Jaguars, and Raiders for the worst record in the league.

"We've got our eyes on the No. 1 pick in April's NFL Draft," Lovie Smith said. "Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston will be the top quarterbacks available. I think we're leaning towards Winston. No disrespect to Mariota, but I can easily see Winston thriving on a team whose mascot is known for raping and pillaging.

"However, I don't see Winston making an immediate impact. Don't get me wrong. He's plenty talented, but I think it would be hard for Jameis to make an immediate impact when he's suspended for eight games by Roger Goodell to start the season."

Packers win, 34-17.

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-3)

The Steelers barreled into Atlanta and left with a convincing 27-20 win over the Falcons. Le'Veon Bell rushed for 2 touchdowns, and William Gay returned a Matt Ryan pick for a touchdown.

"Our biggest advantage over the Chiefs is our downfield passing game," Ben Roethlisberger said. "I've thrown 21 touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Can Alex Smith say that? Heck, can Alex Smith even comprehend that?"

The Chiefs' dominated the Raiders in a 31-13 win at Arrowhead Stadium last week. Alex Smith tossed two scores, one to Travis Kelce and one to Knile Davis.

"Still none to a wide receiver," Smith said. "Apparently, I'm nearsighted.

"Our passing game may be 'pedestrian;' our running game is 'pedestrian,' because we're going to 'walk' all over the Steelers defense with it."

Early in the game, the Chiefs' Dwayne Bowe is flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct when he verbally accosts cornerback Cortez Allen at the end of a deep route in the second quarter. Bowe is ejected, but on the bright side, it's the first "downfield threat" from the Chiefs all year.

Kansas City wins, 24-21.

New England @ NY Jets (+10½)

The Patriots avenged a Week 1 loss to the Dolphins, whipping the Dolphins 41-13 in Foxboro. New England clinched the AFC East, and now have their sights set on locking up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"Right now, our running attack features two of the NFL's most powerful backs in LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray," Tom Brady said. "Those guys are beasts. Put in a two tight end set, and we've got a 'jumbo package' that even Lisa Olson could appreciate.

"Apparently, the Federal Communications Commission received several complaints about me mouthing the 'F' word at Green Bay a few weeks ago. Jesus, if it's not someone complaining about the 'Tuck Rule,' it's someone complaining about the ... oh, never mind. CBS didn't even play the audio, so no one actually heard the profanity. I guess that gives new meaning to the term 'watch your language.'"

The Jets won 16-11 at Tennessee in a game marred by a brawl triggered when Jurrell Casey shoved Geno Smith.

"It's more than likely I won't be coaching the Jets next year," Rex Ryan said. "But you can best believe I'll find a job as a defensive coordinator, probably just minutes after I'm fired. Maybe I could replace my brother Rob in New Orleans. Rob and I are twins. Some say we're triplets. That would be me and the two people that make up Rob."

New England wins, 23-15.

NY Giants @ St. Louis (-5)

Eli Manning threw 3 touchdown passes to Odell Beckham, Jr. in the Giants 24-13 win over the Redskins last week. Beckham finished with 12 receptions for 143 yards.

"They call Odell 'ODB,'" Tom Coughlin said. "Not to be confused with 'Ole Dirty Bastard.' In other words, not to be confused with Jerry Jones. I don't see how anyone could confuse Odell with Jones. Really, the only things they have in common are their tastes in women.

"Actually, Ole Dirty Bastard is a member of the Wu Tang Clan. I'm 70-years-old. I'm not sure what 'Wu Tang Clan' is. I'm guessing it's possibly the Giants' MetLife Stadium Asian fan club, not to be confused with the 'Wu Ting Section.'"

The Rams fell to 6-8, losing a 12-6 defensive struggle to the visiting Cardinals.

"When you give up only 12 points and lose," Jeff Fisher said, "you know your offense hasn't done its job. What I wouldn't give for a player of Beckham's talent. I have a foolproof way to stop Beckham — have Shaun Hill throw to him."

St. Louis wins, 24-23.

Buffalo @ Oakland (+5½)

The Bills stunned the Packers last week, holding Aaron Rodgers without a touchdown pass in a 21-13 win.

"Our defense makes quarterbacks appear below-average," Mario Williams said, "and so does our offense.

"That was a big game for us. We treated the game like it was our Super Bowl. And I'm just as amazed as anyone that we won."

Bills win, 23-13.

Indianapolis @ Dallas (-3)

The Colts clinched the AFC South with a 17-10 win over the Texans last week. In an offensively sloppy game, Andrew Luck passed for only 187 yards but connected for 2 TDs.

"It was rough," Luck said, "and it wasn't pretty. But enough about Jim Irsay's mug shot."

The Cowboys strode confidently into Philadelphia and left with a 38-27 win last Sunday night. Dez Bryant repeatedly burned the Eagles' secondary for 114 yards receiving and 3 touchdowns.

"I jawed with the Eagles before the game," Bryant said. "Usually, taunts of 'yo momma' work for me, but I abused them so bad, I think 'my momma' would have been more suitable."

Cowboys win, 31-24.

Seattle @ Arizona (+8)

The Cardinals remained atop the NFC West with a 12-6 win at St. Louis last Thursday night. To remain there, they'll have to beat Russell Wilson and the Seahawks with third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley.

"Luckily," Bruce Arians said, "we've had ten days to prepare, and I've needed every one just to talk Ryan into playing."

The Seahawks completed the season sweep of the 49ers, winning 17-7 last week at CenturyLink Field. The Legion of Boom sacked Colin Kaepernick 6 times and held the 49ers to just 245 yards of total offense.

"We swept," Richard Sherman said. "We mopped up. Now, we'll leave it up to the 49ers front office to 'clean house.'

"Lindley has never seen a defense quite like ours. And he's never seen a cornerback quite like me. If he throws in my direction, I promise it will come right back to him when I intercept it and return it for a score. That's an offshoot of the Legion of Boom' called the 'Legion of Boomerang.'"

Seattle wins, 20-6.

Denver @ Cincinnati (+3)

Peyton Manning shook off flu-like symptoms to throw for 233 yards and a touchdown as the Broncos wrapped up the AFC West title with a 22-10 win at San Diego.

"What do you know?" Manning said. "Another case of the 'runs' for the Broncos.

"Our identity has changed over the last month or so. Mine has as well. I'm practically unrecognizable to the fans who drafted me in their fantasy leagues. But I'm no Johnny Manziel. I'm 6'6". Compared to Andy Dalton, Marvin Lewis would call me a 'giant,' and it would have nothing to do with my height."

The Bengals dominated Johnny Manziel and the Browns in a 30-0 destruction at Cleveland last week. Cincy roughed up Manziel, sacking him three times and intercepting him twice.

"Maybe Manziel is a midget," Marvin Lewis said, "because he was in way over his head.

"We taunted Manziel throughout the game. We flashed the 'money sign,' and that seemed to really bother him. It didn't bother him while he was at Texas A&M. There, if you said 'money,' Manziel said he'd 'sign' it."

Manning throws for 253 yards and two scores, and the Broncos overcome a slow start to take a 27-19 win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

December 17, 2014

The Cubs Show Lester More Than the Money

In the end, there was more to Jon Lester's signing choice than the dollars in his own pocket. A man doesn't take the second-best offer on the table because he's only in it for the money. Lester himself made the point after the meeting that finally turned him into a six-year, $155 million Cub.

"The thing I liked about 'em," Lester told reporters, "is it wasn't forced and wasn't a sales pitch. It was like, 'This is what we can do.' I don't want B.S. I don't want show. I don't want glitz and glamour. I don't want to walk out to the field with your name and number on the JumboTron. I'm not 18 anymore. I want you to tell me what you can do for me and my family."

In Lester's case, what could be done for him and his family wasn't merely financial security but respect and accommodation for their charity activities. Himself a survivor of large-cell lymphoma, Lester and his wife Farrah created the NVRQT campaign on behalf of children's cancer and contribute considerably to the Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, named for the one-time pitcher and pennant-winning Reds manager who fell to cancer in 1964. Lester himself was treated at the center when he was stricken.

"During meetings with teams," writes Yahoo! Sports's Jeff Passan, "he stressed the importance of his charity work. The Cubs' emphasis on it during their mid-November meeting–while most of his other get-togethers included strictly ownership and baseball-operations people, Chicago brought in community-relations personnel–stuck with Lester, as did the straightforwardness of (team president Theo) Epstein and (general manager Jed) Hoyer."

Certainly it didn't hurt that Lester and Epstein have had a friendly relationship since Epstein's days running the Red Sox, for whom Lester's pitching helped big toward two World Series rings. But don't think the Cubs don't have visions of World Series rings of their own now that Lester will pitch in their silks. And don't think Lester doesn't drool even privately, and maybe once in a while, over the possibility that he could become the first man in baseball history to win World Series rings with the Red Sox and the Cubs.

Yes, these are the Cubs who, under Epstein's leadership, have made plain they were looking to build for long-term success. Yes, signing Lester has the fragrance of going all-in, all-now to some extent. But they'll have Lester anchoring their rotation until he's 35, and it's not necessarily foolish to think he'll be just what they hope him to be for most of the life of the deal.

In nine seasons to date Lester's been worth 32.6 wins above a replacement-level pitcher. He's coming off one of his best seasons to date: a 2.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, a 3.13 fielding-independent pitching rate, and a 4.58 strikeout to walk ratio. And that was despite the midseason trade from Boston to Oakland, after the Red Sox low-balled him on a contract extension in the spring.

He's been a remarkable postseason pitcher, too, mostly, if you remove his sad wild card game of this past October. (It wasn't exactly Lester's fault A's manager Bob Melvin left him in a little too long, but the A's bullpen did a marvelous job of letting the Royals hunt and peck their way back to a one-run deficit on Lester's dollar.) But he's been Madison Bumgarner deadly in the World Series thus far: a 0.43 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, and three wins in two Series.

The Giants were ready to hand Lester $168 million for seven years, and they sent assorted brass plus all-world catcher Buster Posey to romance him. The Red Sox's last offer was six years and $135 million, and they sent owner John Henry to Lester's doorstep twice to talk things over. The Dodgers and the Braves were somewhere in the mix as well. ESPN's Buster Olney says Henry and his CEO Larry Lucchino need to face Boston squarely and say, simply, "We blew it." (Lester offered the Red Sox a hometown discount prospect last winter, and the Red Sox thanked him by confusing "discount" with "lowball.")

Meanwhile, that must have been some champagne party to which the Cubs treated themselves at the winter meetings. The rest of baseball? They probably hit the whiskey bottles running. Lester's deal, as Jayson Stark notes, puts eyes upon Max Scherzer and even James Shields. Never mind how Shields's Big Game James image was battered this postseason. And Scherzer's agent Scott Boras has already let it be known his man is going for very big dollars.

Cubs manager Joe Maddon has said the Lester signing is tantamount to winning the lottery. Cub Country has visions of conquest more precious than a mere lottery. And Stark knows the deal puts every eye in baseball upon the Cubs now.

[I]n the long term, this sport has to grapple with a much bigger question: What should everybody now make of the Cubs?

From the day Epstein and Hoyer walked in the door in 2011, their plan was not to hope they get lucky and win a World Series some day. Their plan was to build something deep and powerful and lasting, a team with a shot to win in October every year.

They didn't know then that the plan would include signing Lester. But because, three years later, they were able to sell what they had already built, the acquisition of a true ace has given them the type of credibility they didn't have a week ago.

And it allowed them to dangle in front of Lester the thought of what it might feel like to be the guy on the mound the day the Cubs win the World Series—for the first time in more than 100 years. How 'bout that thought?

It's probably not a smart idea to hand the Cubs the 2015 World Series just yet, as a few people seem inclined to do. But it may not be a dumb idea to hand them one some time during the life of Lester's contract, either.

The Cubs are run by a man who has more than a small idea of what it's like to yank a long-bedeviled franchise back to the Promised Land. Their starting rotation now pushes up front a pitcher who knows what it means to yank that formerly-bedeviled franchise back to that Promised Land a measly three seasons after the long bedevilment ended. And time was, just a little over a decade ago, when people laughed at the very idea of even that first yank.

The Red Sox wheeled and dealt for Curt Schilling to take them into 2004. He took them far further. It's not unreasonable to presume Cub Country hopes convincing Jon Lester to take the Cubs into 2015-2020 (his contract features a seventh-year vesting option) might yield a similar end result. Whether in 2015 itself or somewhere within the life of his deal. Hopes.

Once upon a time, on Opening Day at Wrigley Field, the Cubs' starting pitcher was about to stride forward and deliver to the plate when a fan in the box seats held up a placard saying, Wait Till Next Year! A few years earlier, George F. Will (author of this year's best baseball book, A Nice Little Place on the North Side: Wrigley Field at One Hundred) wrote thus: "For most baseball fans, the saddest words of tongue or pen are, 'Wait till next year.' For us Cub fans, the saddest words are, 'This year is next year'."

At this writing, two prominent Las Vegas sportsbooks have considerable odds in favor of next year. Westgate SuperBook gives the Cubs 12-1 odds to win the 2015 World Series. The William Hill sports books have it at 16-1. And in case you've forgotten the occasional powers of Hollywood suggestion, good or bad, be reminded that Back to the Future Part II predicted the Cubs would win ... the '15 Series.

Try this one on, if you will. For generations the maxim has held, "The team with the most ex-Cubs loses." Lester's signing has stirred concurrent whispers that Red Sox incumbent David Ross and one-time Red Sox Jonny Gomes, each current free agents, may be Chicago bound. An increasing volume of people are making book that, after October 2015, if not some October within the life of Lester's contract, the maxim will hold, "The team with the most ex-Red Sox—on the field, in the front office, or both — wins."

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:17 AM | Comments (0)

December 16, 2014

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Johnny Manziel's starting debut went about as badly as possible. He went 10-of-18 for 80 yards and 2 interceptions, with 3 sacks for -26 yards. Including rushes, his 26 plays produced 67 yards (2.58 avg) and 2 turnovers. The last QB whose starting debut produced under 100 yards, multiple INTs, and a shutout loss was the Bears' Henry Burris in the final week of the 2002 season, against the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.

* I was impressed by Manziel's postgame press conference. He came across as mature (I know, right?) and took responsibility for his own mistakes.

* Are the Browns worse with Josh Gordon? During the star wideout's suspension, Cleveland went 6-3 and Brian Hoyer threw twice as many TDs (11) as INTs (5), with an 85.6 passer rating. With Gordon in the lineup, the Browns are 1-3, and Hoyer and Manziel have combined for 0 TDs, 9 INTs, and a 44.6 rating.

* In the last two weeks, the Buffalo Bills have held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to a combined 358 passing yards, zero TDs and five turnovers. (h/t Yahoo!)

* Announcer of the week: Al Michaels. When Brent Celek fumbled and landed on J.J. Wilcox, Michaels announced, "You've got Celek here. He goes down on Wilcox."

NFL Discipline

I don't know the ins-and-outs of the NFL's new personal conduct policy — that's not really what I want to write about.

Actually, I'm not entirely sure what I want to write about. Some of it is Adrian Peterson, whose indefinite suspension continues through the end of the 2014 season. Some of it is players like Andrew Hawkins, who have raised awareness against murder by police officers. To me, there's a common thread linking NFL decision-makers to recent failures of the legal process: both have justified wildly disproportionate punishments for young black men, on the basis that the victims were not perfect.

Adrian Peterson is not perfect. He seems like a pretty crappy dad. But I'm really uncomfortable with the NFL's involvement in off-field activity. We have a criminal justice system in this country, based on the principle of habeus corpus and ideals like Innocent Until Proven Guilty. According to its own rules, the NFL can discipline players who have been found not guilty in a court of law, or whom the legal system declined to prosecute. It feels inappropriate for Roger Goodell to impose his own punishments on players already going through the legal process, and it sometimes seems as though the league has a 'Guilty Until Proven Innocent' approach. What makes Commissioner Goodell more qualified than a judge or jury?

Suspending Adrian Peterson is not the same as murdering an unarmed victim. But at a time when young black men are not being protected by our legal system, the NFL is imposing its own wildly excessive discipline on players. What Adrian Peterson did to his son might make him an unfit father, but it doesn't make him unfit to play football. The way the league is handling these issues is wrong. Not just from a practical standpoint; it's morally wrong, it's unfair, and it's starting to look racist. The United States has an unfortunate history of powerful white men putting black men "in their place" and overreacting to real or perceived offenses. I wish the National Football League would be mindful of that the next time it's considering discipline for off-field conduct, and that decision-makers would consider their own motives and perspectives before taking action. Sports can be a powerful vessel for social progress, but right now the NFL's handling of these issues is regressive.

I do appreciate that the league hasn't tried to discipline players for wearing clothing that supports victims of police violence, but I wish the NFL would look to its own house, as well.

2014 Week Fifteen NFL Power Rankings

Brackets indicate previous rank.

1. Seattle Seahawks [3] — Troy Aikman said at the beginning of the game, "They're playing as well as any defense ever over the last seven weeks of the season." That's obviously not true, but in the past four games, the only opponent to reach double-digits against Seattle was the Eagles, who were held to 9 first downs and 139 yards.

The Seahawks are one of two teams this season without any losses by 14 or more. The other is, believe it or not, the Houston Texans.

2. New England Patriots [2] — Second field goal block for a touchdown this season. New England has clinched its sixth consecutive division title, the most of any team in the current eight-division format.

3. Denver Broncos [4] — Peyton Manning briefly left Sunday's game — battling stomach flu, dehydration, and a thigh injury — but he should be fine going forward. Of more concern is the foot sprain for linebacker Brandon Marshall. The Broncos could really use a first-round bye, to make sure Marshall is available for their first playoff game.

4. Buffalo Bills [11] — Consider their last four games:

beat Jets, 38-3
beat Browns, 26-10
lost at Denver, 24-17
beat Packers, 21-13

That's two blowout wins, a close loss on the road against a great team (in which they broke Peyton Manning's TD streak), and a win over one of the best teams in the NFL. Based purely on that record, the Bills are probably one of the five best teams in the league right now.

5. Green Bay Packers [1] — Consider their last four games:

won at Minnesota, 24-21
beat Patriots, 26-21
beat Falcons, 43-37
lost at Buffalo, 21-13

There's one impressive game in there: the win over New England. Other than that, it's two close wins over mediocre teams, and a loss. I have real reservations about such a high ranking for a team that only plays well in half its games. The Packers are 3-4 on the road, no wins against opponents with a winning record, and two of the three by just a field goal. Green Bay is a great home team, not a great team.

6. Indianapolis Colts [5] — T.Y. Hilton played most of the game with a tweaked hamstring, but he stayed in the game and his MRI on Monday looked good, so he should be ready for Week 16. The Colts have clinched the AFC South, but they're still battling for playoff position. Indianapolis surely wants to secure at least the third seed, and avoid a trip to New England in the second week of the playoffs. The Patriots have had their number in recent meetings.

7. Dallas Cowboys [13] — DeMarco Murray broke a bone in his hand and had surgery Monday. He's expected to play against the Colts in Week 16, and the injury is to his non-ball carrying hand, so his occasional fumble problems are unlikely to worsen. Murray has 1,687 rushing yards, so even if he's close to 100%, a 2,000-yard season is unlikely. Murray would have to average 156.5 yards over the last two weeks, and he's only hit 150 twice all season.

8. Philadelphia Eagles [6] — LeSean McCoy ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing (1,132 yards). He accounts for over two-thirds of Philadelphia's rushing yardage this season, but McCoy has rushed for only 4 touchdowns, second on the team (Darren Sproles). McCoy has 67% of the team's rushing yardage and 29% of the rushing TDs. It's puzzling to see him get so few carries near the goal line.

9. St. Louis Rams [7] — Obviously, this rank requires some explanation. The Rams are 6-8, and they're ranked ahead of an 11-3 team that just swept them. They're ranked above the Cardinals solely because of Drew Stanton's injury, and because I don't believe Arizona can succeed with the quarterbacks it has healthy. The Rams lost an ugly game on Thursday night, but they didn't allow a touchdown — with that defense, St. Louis can compete with anyone. They won their previous two games by a combined 76-0, and they beat the Broncos by two touchdowns less than a month ago. Their offense was underwhelming in Week 15, but this team has played at a very high level recently, and remains a dangerous opponent.

10. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Pass rush has taken off in the absence of Pro Bowl DT Haloti Ngata. In their 12 games with Ngata — who was playing well before his suspension — the Ravens sacked opposing QBs 31 times (2.6 per game). In two games without Ngata, they've tallied 14 sacks.

11. Arizona Cardinals [8] — It's hard to know how to rate them following Drew Stanton's injury. We haven't seen much of Ryan Lindley (and even less of rookie Logan Thomas), but when Lindley started a few games in 2012, he did not perform at an NFL level. It's tough to come in cold off the bench, and the Rams have a good defense, but Lindley's limited action on Thursday night surely didn't reassure his doubters. The Cardinals have overcome injuries all season, plugging holes and continuing to win, but this might be the one that finally holds them back. You need a basic level of competence from your quarterback to be successful in this league, and right now that's a real question for Arizona. I rank teams on current strength, and with Lindley, I don't see the Cardinals as a top-10 team.

12. San Diego Chargers [9] — Philip Rivers in 2014...

First seven games: 271 net pass yds/gm, 17 TD, 3 INT, 113.0 rating
Past seven games: 229 net pass yds/gm, 10 TD, 10 INT, 83.1 rating

Rivers has gone from MVP front-runner to pretty average, but this isn't necessarily a huge drop in performance. It's at least partially a leap in competition. San Diego's second-half schedule is tougher than the first half.

13. Detroit Lions [12] — Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are back, but they're not making a huge impact. Johnson has been Megatron in three of his six games since returning, but has been held under 60 yards, with no TDs, in the other three. Bush has a combined 51 yards from scrimmage in two games since his own return from injury. His lack of involvement in the offense this season is hard to understand. But the Lions continue to win with defense. Since the bye, five of their six opponents have scored under 20 points, granted that they haven't faced a murderer's row of offenses during that time.

14. Kansas City Chiefs [14] — Rookie kicker Cairo Santos, who had only missed two field goals all season, missed two more against Oakland on Sunday. Neither were chip shots, but both were inside 50 yards, which you expect to convert. Santos is only 5/8 from 40-49 yards. The 8-6 Chiefs have critical games the next two weeks, against fellow playoff contenders Pittsburgh and San Diego. Wins in both would virtually guarantee a playoff appearance, while a loss in either one — especially the Steelers in Week 16 — would be devastating.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers [16] — Lead the NFL in total offense, 425 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger already has the most passing yards of his career (4,415), and he has out-passed the opposing QB in 12 of their 14 games this season.

16. Cincinnati Bengals [17] — Fourth shutout victory in the last 30 years. All four were against the Browns, the most recent being December 2008. The Bengals have won four of their last five, and six of the last eight. They're 2-3 against teams with winning records, sweeping the Ravens but losing to the Patriots, Colts, and Steelers by a combined 112-38. The last two games are against Denver and Pittsburgh. A win in either one would probably get Cincinnati into the playoffs, for the fourth straight season.

17. Miami Dolphins [15] — Followed a close first half (down 14-13) with a blowout second half (27-0), and allowed a season-high 41 points. Third-year head coach Joe Philbin apparently will be fired at the end of the season. Evidently players don't like him, so perhaps a change is necessary, but his on-field results merit another year.

18. Atlanta Falcons [19] — Kept it close against Pittsburgh, even without Julio Jones. Head coach Mike Smith says he expects Julio back for this week's critical matchup against New Orleans. The Falcons are 5-9 and third place in the NFC South, but they control their own destiny, with remaining games against both the Saints and Panthers. Win both, and they're division champs.

19. Minnesota Vikings [20] — Out-gained the Lions 360-233, and 21 first downs to 11. They lost on turnovers and missed field goals, including a 68-yarder as time expired.

20. New Orleans Saints [23] — Third straight road win. With three takeaways and seven sacks, the lowly New Orleans D/ST scored 14 points in most fantasy leagues this week, though I don't expect a lot of owners used the Saints in the fantasy playoffs.

21. San Francisco 49ers [22] — It's not fair to blame their loss on injuries and poor officiating. But there's some truth to both ideas. Running back Frank Gore left with a concussion, backup Carlos Hyde left with an injury, and linebacker Chris Borland missed most of the second half with an ankle injury.

The 49ers were also on the wrong end of a terrible roughing the passer penalty, which turned a likely field goal for Seattle into a touchdown. Rodney Harrison was livid on NBC: "The worst call of the day ... A clean hit. That is garbage." It was a textbook tackle, and if the NFL is really going to make progress on player safety, it needs to protect clean hits just as much as it needs to penalize dirty ones. Head of officiating Dean Blandino has conceded that it was the wrong call. The 49ers have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

22. Houston Texans [18] — Down to their fourth QB. They'd rank 17th with either of the Ryans (Fitzpatrick and Mallett), but not with fourth-round rookie Tom Savage, and certainly not with newly-signed Thad Lewis and Case Keenum.

23. New York Giants [27] — Eli Manning targeted Odell Beckham on 15 of his 34 passes, but maybe he should just throw to Beckham exclusively. The rookie phenom caught 12 passes for 143 yards and 3 TDs. He also drew 40 yards worth of pass interference penalties and had an impressive 30-yard TD nullified by a holding penalty.

24. Cleveland Browns [21] — Comments on Manziel and Gordon at the top... Cleveland's defensive backfield is really banged up. Joe Haden left this week's game with a shoulder injury, and Justin Gilbert got a concussion. They were already missing K'Waun Williams, Robert Nelson, and Tashaun Gipson.

25. New York Jets [25] — Last two games are against the Patriots and Dolphins. The Jets are 0-4 against the AFC East, one of four teams winless in its own division. The others are the Jaguars (0-4) and the Buccaneers and Vikings (both 0-5).

26. Carolina Panthers [29] — Derek Anderson has passed for 5 TDs, no interceptions, and a 105.2 passer rating. The Panthers are 2-0 when Anderson starts, compared to 3-8-1 with Cam Newton. Maybe that's just because both of Anderson's start came against Tampa Bay, but I don't see any reason for Newton to rush his recovery from that car crash. Anderson has been effective in this offense, and there's even an argument to be made that he got a raw deal in Cleveland.

27. Oakland Raiders [24] — I find it hard to believe that Derek Carr gives them a better chance to win than Matt Schaub. His play might be an acceptable fit on a team with a strong run game and good defense, because Carr has not made a lot of negative plays this season. He hasn't thrown a lot of interceptions, and he's among the best in the league at avoiding sacks. But bad teams — and the Raiders are quite bad — need playmakers. Carr just doesn't create positive plays. His average yardage is the worst in the NFL.

28. Chicago Bears [28] — I love bad Monday night games. It's worth sitting through three hours of booing to hear Steve Young and Trent Dilfer freaking out after the really awful performances. Their frustration with Jay Cutler was more entertaining than the game itself. His recent extension remains the most mind-boggling decision of the offseason.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Last two games are both at home. They're 0-6 in Tampa this season, the only team without a home win. The Bucs and Jets are both double-digit underdogs at home in Week 16 (against the Packers and Patriots, respectively).

30. Jacksonville Jaguars [30] — Eighth game this season scoring 14 or fewer. They rank last in the NFL in points per game (15.1).

31. Washington [31] — The league has been good this year about requiring "indisputable visual evidence" to overturn the call on replay reviews. Of course, with Jeff Triplette, the legendary King of Incompetence, the normal rules don't apply. On the last play of the first half, Robert Griffin rushed for a touchdown, but following a replay, Triplette ruled that Griffin had lost possession before crossing the plane, and never regained it.

Veteran wideout Santana Moss was so infuriated with Triplette that he drew two unsportmanslike conduct penalties and got ejected from the game. Instead of a 17-7 halftime lead, with momentum and the first possession of the second half, Washington went in up 3, and the Giants kicked off from so far down the field (due to the penalties on Moss) that they tried — and recovered — an onside kick, setting up a game-tying field goal and setting the tone for the second half.

In the FOX studio, Michael Strahan was sympathetic to Moss: "He had a legitimate argument. I don't know what a touchdown is if that isn't a touchdown." Griffin said after the game, "It's a touchdown in every game I've ever seen. They decided that it wasn't today." He did appear to briefly lose possession of the ball, but nothing about that call was indisputable. Triplette is proof that the NFL has no performance standards for its referees. Once you're selected for that position, nothing can get you fired.

32. Tennessee Titans [32] — They're three-point underdogs to the Jaguars in Week 16. Charlie Whitehurst will start at quarterback.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:24 PM | Comments (0)

December 15, 2014

2014 College Football Game Awards

With the 2014 bowl season about to begin, it's time to hand out some regular season awards to the most memorable games of a thrilling season.

Game of the Year, Hindsight Edition: TCU at Baylor

Didn't see that one coming, did we? Had you skimmed the slate of games on the second weekend in October, you would be excused if you hadn't highlighted the Bears and Horned Frogs as a game of major influence. LSU was visiting Florida, Oregon was headed to face UCLA in the Rose Bowl, and even in the Big 12 and the Lone Star State, Oklahoma and Texas were set for Charlie Strong's first Red River Shootout.

But more important than any of those matchups, the Big 12's playoff fate was largely determined that day Saturday in Waco. Baylor rallied furiously to edge TCU 60-57 in what certainly looks like 2014's game of the year, even if defense was a mere formality by the fourth quarter.

Sure, both teams were ranked in the top ten by that point, so the slugfest hardly went by unnoticed. But by running out of gas just short of the finish line that day, we now know TCU was doomed to trail Baylor in the season's final standings.

Game Most Likely to Be a Cross-Dimensional Message From Matthew McConaughey and Not a Believable Sports Result: Indiana at Missouri

Indiana, the poor Big Ten's once and future doormat, faced its reciprocal trip to Columbia after losing to Missouri 45-28 in 2013. Missouri, the once and future SEC East Champs, was 3-0 after pasting defending Fiesta Bowl champs UCF, 38-10.

So, of course, the Hoosiers pulled the upset on September 20, 31-27. The intrigue only grows deeper upon further inspection.

Two weeks earlier, Missouri strangely traveled to play at Toledo. Forget coach Gary Pinkel's ties to his former employer or quarterback Maty Mauk's Northwest Ohio roots; SEC teams just don't play road games in MAC country.

Of course, the same can usually be said for Big Ten teams. Indiana also broke the mould of its conference brethren fattening up home schedules by traveling near the banks of Lake Erie to play Bowling Green.

But perhaps the most damning evidence that this game was altered by beings beyond our three or four dimensional existence is how each team's season played out following the shocking result. The Tigers went on to win their second consecutive SEC East crown, sweeping a conference road slate that included the Swamp and Allen Field. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers needed a final weekend home win over hapless Purdue to avoid a winless conference record.

Someday, the ESPNU footage of this game will be scrutinized by scientists looking for evidence of life beyond our planet. Because that's the only way I'll ever believe the 2014 Hoosiers walked out of Missouri with a win.

Game Vegas Did Not See Coming: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, Big Ten Championship

Let's just say those huge casinos in the desert aren't built by setting lines 63 points different than final scores.

Game Most Likely to Discourage Your Son From Playing Football: Virginia Tech/Wake Forest

There's an expression that all serious gamblers won the first time they bet, otherwise they would have quit immediately. I don't know if we should assume all serious football players watched good games the first time they saw the sport, but nobody whose maiden football experience involved two putrid ACC teams going to overtime scoreless could have thought, "Wow, what a great sport!"

The Hokies and Demon Deacons combined for 26 scoreless drives in 60 minutes. But at least Wake tried to score, missing three field goals during regulation.

Virginia Tech — the same Virginia Teach that beat playoff-bound Ohio State in Columbus — punted nine times, turned the ball over three, and mercifully let one drive fade away into halftime.

The mid-Atlantic is a proud and talent-rich football region. Let's just hope the next Michael Vick didn't pick up a basketball for keeps after this monstrosity.

Game Best Proving That Preseason Rankings Are a Snow Globe Inside a Pizza Oven: Texas A&M at South Carolina

Opening Thursday's featured event was supposed to announce the arrival of two possible SEC Championship contenders, the SEC Network, and Brent Musburger's post-primetime gig. As it turns out, we didn't need to hear from any of them again for the rest of the year.

The Gamecocks, who opened the season ranked sixth, were drubbed 52-28 by the Aggies as newly installed quarterback Kenny Hill threw for a school-record 511 yards, something Johnny Manziel never did. Of course, South Carolina would also later lose to Kentucky and, in the most unSpurrierian of results, Clemson.

A&M, meanwhile, rode the big opening win to a top-ten position in the polls, only to 0-for-October, including a 59-0 spanking at Alabama. In November, Hill would be suspended for two games, though the Aggies won each.

Preseason rankings: they're based on almost nothing!

Game We Might Finally Get After All: Alabama vs. Oregon, College Football Playoff Championship

We've been so close quite a few times. In 2009, the Ducks had momentum following a Halloween-night thrashing of USC, only to trip at Stanford the following week and settle for the Rose Bowl while Alabama defeated Texas in that same stadium a week later.

In 2010, Oregon held up its end of the journey to the BCS title game, but the Tide fell three times in SEC play and settled for the Capital One Bowl.

But most memorably, while Alabama reached the 2011 and 2012 season's title games, Oregon twice lost its penultimate conference game by a field goal, the first time to USC and the second, in overtime, to Stanford. In each case, a Duck victory could have led to a date with the Tide.

Now, Alabama and Oregon, each touchdown-plus favorites, can deliver the long lusted-for new-school vs. old-school matchup by holding serve one more time. Sure, neither squad represents its programs recent best, and the coaching staffs (namely the absence of Chip Kelly and the presence of Lane Kiffin) make these versions feel more like Barry Switzer's Cowboys than Jimmy Johnson's, but this would have to be a better game than the Tide out-'Bama-ing LSU or Notre Dame.

I have defended the BCS for doing exactly what it was supposed to do before, but this inaugural year of the playoff is so much more exciting. Consider how the BCS system would have handled 2014.

Florida State would absolutely have finished atop the BCS. While the Seminoles are seriously maligned by the computers (15th in Jeff Sagarin's poll!), they would have dominated both human polls and led a fairly even group of one-loss teams.

More importantly, instead of looking forward to seeing Alabama and Oregon potentially play, we would have spent the past month trying to separate them. Was the Michigan-variety a better home MSU win than the Mississippi version? Does Oregon get credit for exacting revenge for its sole defeat? Was the poll-topping mid-season euphoria surrounding SEC West dominance mostly hype?

(For the record, the answers are: No, Yes, and Oh Yeah, Definitely)

There's much excitement around the first College Football Playoff, and rightfully so. Not only do two more teams have a change to win the national title, but New Year's Day is re-established as a great stage for the sport. But perhaps most importantly, the playoff moves the debate down from teams No. 2 and 3 to No. 4 and 5. It seems like a small difference, but with just a small change in the cutoff, the playoff can exclude a slightly lesser team with a slightly less compelling argument.

The 2014 college football season has been wild and strange, and yet, the four playoff teams were all ranked in the preseason AP top five.

When a story is this fun, you can forgive a predictable ending.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 12:56 PM | Comments (0)

December 11, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 15

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Arizona @ St. Louis (-4½)

The Rams posted their second consecutive shutout win, blanking the Redskins 24-0 to follow up Week 14's 52-0 blowout of the Raiders.

"We may be taking this social protest thing a little too far," Jeff Fisher said, "because our defense has a 'take no prisoners' mentality. And it may get even worse. I hear my whole team is planning to wear jersey No. 4 when they hit the field for the first time on Thursday. Confused? Me too. Apparently, it's their statement against 'excessive 4s.'

"Right now, as far as the Cardinals go, I feel we're the better team, 'hands down.' Defensively, we're clicking. Gregg Williams has crafted an attacking unit that won't back down. Like many things in Missouri, some would call our defense 'overly aggressive.'"

The Cardinals snapped a two-game losing streak with a hard-fought 17-14 win over the visiting Chiefs. Arizona is 10-3 and still holds a one-game lead over the 9-4 Seahawks.

"Like us," Bruce Arians said, "the Rams have been relying heavily on their defense. Their offense is average, but two consecutive shutouts have earned the Rams defense the nickname 'The Greatest No on Turf.'

"But don't discount our defense. They give us our best chance to win, and our best chance to score."

Arizona wins, 15-13.

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta (+3)

The Steelers responded in a must-win situation, whipping the Bengals at Cincinnati 35-21. Le'Veon Bell score three touchdowns and recorded 235 yards from scrimmage.

"Le'Veon has had 61 touches in the last two week," Ben Roethlisberger said. "That's an amazing number, especially since not a single one was deemed inappropriate.

"I want to be sure we don't overwork Bell. Mike Tomlin has assured me we will not. However, in my life, I've learned that 'no' can mean 'yes.'"

Atlanta's hold on the NFC South lead took a hit at Lambeau Field in a 43-37 loss. Matt Ryan passed for 375 yards, including 259 to Julio Jones, and 4 touchdowns in a losing effort. Luckily, the Saints lost to the Panthers, so the Falcons remained tied with New Orleans, with the Panthers just a ½-game back.

"It appears things just went from worse to bad," Mike Smith said. "That's the nature of life in the NFC South: you can lose, and still hold your position, as a team and as a coach.

"Obviously, we need to contain Bell. And while we're on the subject of overworked 'backs,' how about those of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones — those guys carried the whole team at Green Bay. When people say the NFC champion will go 'through' Green Bay, they must mean their defense."

Pittsburgh wins, 35-27.

Washington @ NY Giants (-7)

The Redskins were shutout 24-0 by the Rams at FedEx Field, sending the home-standing 'Skins their tenth loss of the season. Colt McCoy was injured in the loss, leaving Robert Griffin III with mop-up duty.

"The Rams really humiliated us," Jay Gruden said, "before the game even started. Their captains for the coin toss were the six players they acquired in the RG III trade. That's quite a 'Haul of Fame' class. Did anyone ever think of doing the same thing to Mike Ditka when he was Saints' coach? I doubt it. I don't think the league allows 14 captains at the coin toss.

"I hear you can get a ticket to a 'Skins game for $4. Now, ordinary fans can be just like Daniel Snyder and spend way too much for useless commodities."

The Giants hammered the Titans in Nashville 36-7, snapping their seven-game losing streak. Rookies Odell Beckham, Jr. and Andre Williams had big games, and the Giants defense scored once.

"As opposed to last week in Jacksonville," Tom Coughlin said, "we put it all together at Tennessee. There's quite a difference between a 'complete game' and 'completely game.'

"I find it remarkable that people are no longer talking about the 'Redskins' nickname. That doesn't mean the 'natives' aren't restless. Washington fans want a name to change, all right. They just want it to be that of their owner, coach, general manager, and quarterback, to name a few."

Giants win, 27-17.

Miami @ New England (-7)

The Patriots have all but locked up the AFC East title, but Sunday's order of business is avenging their Week 1 loss at Miami. New England is fresh off a 23-14 win at San Diego, and a win over the Dolphins would clinch the AFC East title.

"Payback's a cinch," Tom Brady said. "Unless you're Jonas Gray, then payback's a bench. I hear a hot new Christmas gift is the 'Jonas Gray Alarm Clock.' It works like any other alarm clock, with one exception: if you set the alarm incorrectly, Bill Belichick will give you a personal 'wake-up call.'

"The forecast for Foxboro calls for chilly temperatures on Sunday. It will be cold, but not too cold. A high of 6 degrees Celsius is forecast. Oh, you want that in Fahrenheit? Pardon my language, but I'll be glad to '°F' that for you — it's 43 degrees Fahrenheit."

The Dolphins blew a 10-0 first quarter lead and lost to the Ravens 28-13 at Sun Life Stadium. Miami is 7-6 and currently out of the playoff picture.

"To say this is a must-win game is an understatement," Joe Philbin said. "To try and win, we'll have to pull out all the stops, like fake punts, onside kicks, flea flickers, and pass attempts of 12 or more yards downfield. Passing will be difficult against the Patriots. Darrelle Revis is arguably the best cornerback in football. He is the smartest, and there's no arguing that. He was smart enough to get the heck out of New York and Tampa. Of course, it doesn't take a genius to know that."

New England wins, 31-16.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-10)

The Raiders shocked the 49ers 24-13, led by rookie Derek Carr, who passed for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns.

"I told my guys there's only room for one team in San Francisco Bay," Tony Sparano said, "and it's us. And I told 'em to go out and play their hardest and put all other distractions behind them. Our rallying cry was 'It's All About That Bay's, No Trouble,' and it seemed to work."

The Chiefs lost their third straight game, a 17-14 decision at Arizona, and are 7-6. Kansas City would likely need to win their remaining three games to have any chance to make the playoffs.

"Indeed," Andy Reid said, "our chances didn't look good two games ago. Now they look even worse. Our playoff hopes are a lot like my girdle — 'slimming.'

"But anything is possible when you have Jamaal Charles on your team. I feel he's the best running back in the league. He can practically do it all. There's only one thing he can't do, and that's throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. That qualifies him to be our quarterback."

Kansas City wins, 27-13.

Houston @ Indianapolis (-7)

The Texans beat the Jaguars 27-13 last week to remain two games behind the Colts in the AFC South. Houston will need a win on the road at Lucas Oil Stadium to have any chance of catching the Colts.

"J.J. Watt dominated again," Bill O'Brien said. "He had 3 sacks, 4 tackles for losses, 5 quarterback hits, and a pass defended. He spent more time in the Jacksonville backfield than some of their offensive lineman."

Andrew Luck engineered a fourth quarter, game-ending drive, finding T.Y. Hilton for a one-yard TD pass with 32 seconds left to give the Colts a 25-24 win over the Browns. Indy is 9-4 and can clinch the AFC South title with a win.

"I don't consider myself a hero," Luck said. "A hero would be a Colts running back who rushes for 100 yards in a game. But I like our backfield now with Boom Herron and Trent Richardson sharing time. We call it the 'Boom And Bust' duo."

Indianapolis wins, 30-24.

Jacksonville @ Baltimore (-14)

The Jaguars lost to the Texans 27-13 last week to drop to 2-11, tied with the Titans for last in the AFC South. They'll face a motivated Ravens team eager to keep their playoff status on solid footing.

"Are we really 14-point underdogs?" Gus Bradley said. "That seems excessive. I don't think the Ravens will cover; I do think they'll cover up.

"I'm sure the trash talk will be flying in this game. The Ravens like to talk, unless it's to NFL investigators. In Baltimore, it's always a case of 'he said, she said, they said.' If you ask anyone in the Baltimore organization to swear on a bible, you won't get the truth, or the whole truth. You will get anything but the truth."

The Ravens erased an early 10-0 deficit at Miami before storming back for a dominant 28-13 win. The Baltimore defense bounced back from a poor week 14 performance with six sacks of Ryan Tannehill.

"All that without Haloti Ngata," John Harbaugh said. "He's suspended for the remainder of the regular season for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. See, even drugs aren't safe from abuse by Ravens.

"But we can't tell our players what to put in their bodies no more than we can tell them how not to appear on surveillance video. I can tell them that there are no restrictions on getting after Bortles on Sunday."

The Ravens sack Bortles 7 times and force 3 turnovers.

Baltimore wins, 27-6.

Green Bay @ Buffalo (+4½)

Aaron Rodgers passed for 327 yards and three touchdowns, continuing his perfection at home, as the Packers outlasted the Falcons in a 43-37 shootout. Green Bay accumulated 502 total yards, while Atlanta posted 465.

"I don't need to make excuses for our defense," Rodgers said. "If there's one thing they can defend, it's themselves.'"

The Bills lost 24-17 to the Broncos at Denver last week and fell to 7-6. Orton passed for 355 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Peyton Manning went without a TD pass for the first time in 51 games.

"Manning uncharacteristically struggled," Orton said. "There was a time in Denver when a game like that would have got you pulled for Tim Tebow."

Green Bay wins, 27-20.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-5)

The Panthers jumped to a 17-0 lead at New Orleans and completely dominated the Saints on their way to a 41-10 win. Cam Newton passed for 226 yards and rushed for 83 and had 3 touchdowns.

"Finally," Ron Rivera said, "Cam played like 'Superman.' And, just like a super hero, you never know when Cam will show up.

"Cam's 'Superman' celebration in the Superdome really upset the Saints and sparked a wild brawl. I think the Saints were offended that a player on a team with eight losses would dare celebrate anything. But the fists were flying. I'd say we got the best of them. Even after the fight, we kept punching the Saints in the mouth. Now the Saints can join the Ravens on the list of teams that are glad Steve Smith is not a Panther."

The Bucs dropped a 34-17 decision at Detroit and fell to 2-11 on the year. The loss officially eliminated the Bucs from playoff contention.

"I guess we're relegated to playing the role of 'spoiler,'" Lovie Smith said. "Usually, that's a job reserved for our quarterback."

Injuries sustained in an automobile accident on Tuesday rendered Newton unable to play. So while "Cam Newton and the Car Wreck" dominated the headlines mid-week, Monday's headlines are sure to feature "Derek Anderson and the Train Wreck."

Panthers wins 22-20.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (Even)

The Browns succumbed to Andrew Luck's late heroics in a 25-24 loss at the Dawg Pound. The Cleveland defense kept them in the game as Brian Hoyer again struggled, with only 140 yards passing and 2 interceptions.

"I should have been in the game," Johnny Manziel said. "Just call Mike Pettine 'Bernie Kosar,' because he doesn't know how to manage 'Money.'

"Josh Gordon needs the ball more, and I would get it to him. He had only two catches against the Colts. Part of Josh's terms of reinstatement was that he couldn't be 'wasted.'"

The Bengals suffered a big home loss to the Steelers, losing 42-21. Despite the loss, Cincy, at 8-4-1, still leads the AFC North by ½-game over the Steelers and Ravens.

"I'd have to throw a red flag on that performance," Marvin Lewis said, "because it certainly needs review.

"I called Manziel a 'midget' in a radio interview. That's something I said that was taken way out of context. When I said Manziel was a midget, I meant he liked 'shorties.' I may be dating myself, but I assume that means he likes short girls. To each his own I say. Heck, Josh Gordon likes 'fat ones.'"

Cincinnati wins, 26-20.

NY Jets @ Tennessee (+2)

The Jets woeful season continued at Minnesota, where New York lost 30-24 in overtime to the Vikings. The Jets fells to 2-11 and are winless on the road this year.

"I'm just waiting on the inevitable," Rex Ryan said. "No, not Geno Smith's next interception, but my firing. That doesn't sound sexy at all. There's only one 'boot' I like, and that one on my wife's foot.

"Geno Smith said he's shown 'Pro Bowl flashes' this year. By definition, a 'flash' is something that appears only momentarily, usually for less than a second. So, yes, Geno has shown Pro Bowl flashes. Two at the most."

The Titans were blown out by the Giants 36-7. Tennessee's lone touchdown came on a return of an Eli Manning interception. Zach Mettenberger is out for the season with a Grade III shoulder sprain.

"And speaking of 'third grade,'" Ken Whisenhunt said, "Jake Locker's knowledge of the play book is still limited.

"I know exactly what Ryan must be going through. I too have quite a stable of useless quarterbacks and a defense sick of spending 45 minutes of the game on the field."

Jets win, 24-16.

Denver @ San Diego (+4)

The Broncos handled the Bills 24-17 in Denver as the Broncos again established a strong running attack. C.J. Anderson had all three of Denver's touchdowns, and Peyton Manning's streak of 51 consecutive games with a TD pass ended.

"As they say," Manning said, "all good things must come to an end. Like your fantasy season.

"But don't think my arm is showing the after-effects of the rigors of a long season. Sure, I know a lot of so-called experts would label my performance as 'Peyton in December,' or 'Eli In September,' or 'a good day for a New York Jet,' or 'Trent Dilfer in a Super Bowl-winning performance.' But don't worry about my arm. It's got a mind of its own, and that mind is that of a cold, hard killer, in that it has no feeling.

"I hear Ryan Leaf was recently released from a Montana prison. Leaf a free man? That's a prescription for disaster. Leaf was the second player selected after me in the 1998 NFL Draft. That pretty much sealed his fate, because his life has been 'No. 2' since then."

The Broncos ramp up the passing game, and Manning throws for 280 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Denver wins, 31-28.

Minnesota @ Detroit (-8)

The Lions defeated the Buccaneers 34-17 last week, improving their record to 9-4. Matthew Stafford passed for 311 yards and threw 3 TD passes.

"It was another stellar performance by our defense," Stafford said. "They're the NFL's second-ranked defense. Of course, the defense is lead by none other than Ndamukong Suh. Suh's a free at season's end, and it's imperative we resign him. For Christ's sake, we don't want him ending up somewhere else, like Chicago, Minnesota, or New York, or on Broadway in the revival of 'Stomp.'"

The Vikings beat the Jets 30-24 in overtime, winning on Jarius Wright's 87-yard touchdown pass from Teddy Bridgewater. Minnesota is 6-7, third in the NFC North.

"Teddy's having a breakout season," Mike Zimmer said. "Casual fans may not have known him at the beginning of the season, but they do now. Fan's now call him the 'Whizzinator,' because he's recognized in airports."

Detroit wins, 23-20.

San Francisco @ Seattle (-10)

The Seahawks stormed into Philadelphia last week and handed the Eagles a 24-14 defeat. Russell Wilson had three touchdowns, and the Seahawks held Philly to 139 total yards.

"We are playing our best," Wilson said. "We are certainly capable of defending our Super Bowl title, and that's a statement that certainly bears 'repeating.'

"Right now, we hold the NFC's No. 5 seed, which would entail a wild card round playoff game on the road at the home of the NFC South winner. That would be called away-field advantage. And we don't mind facing the Packers in Green Bay, provided their defense will be there.

"The 49ers will be 7-7 if we beat them. That would probably eliminate them from playoff contention. Ask my teammates what they think about San Fran's outlook, and they'll tell you it's plenty 'black enough.'"

Seattle wins, 20-16.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3½)

The Cowboys whipped the Bears at Soldier Field 41-28 behind big days from Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray. Murray rushed for 179 yards, and Romo threw 3 touchdown passes.

"I may or may not have been playing with broken rib," Romo said. "I guess you can say we haven't been very forthcoming on the injury report where my various internal injuries are concerned. Even our injury report itself is listed as questionable.

"But I'm not different than any other Cowboy on our roster. We all play with nagging pains, many if not all of them named 'Jerry.'"

The Eagles lost for the first time at home this year, falling to the Seahawks 24-14. Philadelphia was limited to 159 yards of total offense, including only 96 yards passing from Mark Sanchez.

"Sanchez played for Pete Carroll at USC," Chip Kelly said. "In fact, I think Carroll tried to discourage Mark from leaving school after his junior year. It's not the first time Mark's been accused of entering early."

Eagles win, 27-24.

New Orleans @ Chicago (+3)

The Panthers destroyed the Saints, 41-10, last week, dealing a damaging blow to New Orleans' playoff hopes. Carolina piled up 497 yards of total offense in sending the Saints to their worst defeat this year.

"I'm not taking questions about the playoffs," Sean Payton said, "and I'm certainly not performing my Jim Mora impression.

"That was embarrassing. Our fans were booing. Some were crying. Others were asking, 'Boo who dat?' But guess what? I cut wide receiver Joe Morgan on Tuesday. And don't be surprised if there's more of the same. Only this time, 'heads rolling' will save us money."

The Bears continued to struggle, losing to the Cowboys, 41-28, last Thursday night. To compound issues, Brandon Marshall was lost for the season with broken ribs and an injured lung suffered in the game.

"Brandon is our unquestioned leader," Marc Trestman said, "whereas Jay Cutler is our 'questioned' leader, because everyone questions his leadership. If Jay were an enemy of Batman, he would most certainly be the 'Riddler,' because there are question marks all around him."

The Saints show a little fight, and the Saints pile up 421 yards of offense.

New Orleans wins, 34-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:35 PM | Comments (0)

Which NBA Teams Are Making an Impression?

Every sports season, there's always some team that makes an unexpected jump, whether it be forwards or backwards. The NBA is no exception. As of Wednesday night, every team in the Association will have played 20 games, meaning this current rendition will have reached the proverbial "quarter pole." During this stint of games, there have been the usual "where'd they come from" and "what happened to them?" For me, these are the ones who've stood out the most.

Eastern Conference: Biggest Surprise

When the season started, we basically knew a few traits about the East. First, Cleveland and Chicago had the star power to be named frontrunners. Second, Washington and Toronto were up-and-coming squads that could be slapped with the "contender" label. Third, the rest of the conference was basically up for grabs. Sure, Miami had the championship experience, but a major piece left. Yes, Brooklyn contained the logistical pieces to make a push, but they've been a bit on the underachieving side.

Then, there's the annual question that permeates through the conference. What about the Atlanta Hawks? This current rendition of the franchise in the 2009-2010 campaign, going 53-29 (.646 winning percentage) and earning the three-seed in the postseason. Save for the strike-shortened season (2011-2012), it has been a steady decline since the turn of the decade. The start of the season appeared to hold more of the same. However, after beginning 5-5, they've suddenly taken off, winning 9 of their last 10 (including their last seven).

The offense under Mike Budenholzer has really kicked in, placing the team in the league's top ten in points per game (103.7, good for 7th), assists per game (25.5, good for 4th), and team field goal percentage (.475, good for 4th). If they can continue this hot shooting, their rebounding deficiency (39.7 per game, 4th to last) may not matter as they tussle with the Wizards and Heat for the Southeast Division.

Eastern Conference: Biggest Disappointment

Among the questions we fans have when it comes to NBA franchises, there's one that keeps rising to the surface. "Can Michael Jordan ever turn himself into a good NBA executive?" Despite having the unequivocal status as the greatest to ever play the game, Jordan's turn at front office responsibilities hasn't worked out so well. The tide, though, seemed to be shifting this offseason. His Charlotte Hornets finished last season above .500 and 7th in the conference standings. The nucleus of talent (Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Al Jefferson, Gerald Henderson) were youthful and full of talent. They went out during free agency and added a talented swingman to the roster.

For some reason, this hasn't made Steve Clifford's bunch better through the early going. Despite all those positive steps, Charlotte exits the first part of the season with a 5-15 mark. While it's still within striking distance, it has them buried on the low side of the conference standings. Now, we're starting to hear whispers about their prized free agent (one Lance Stephenson) not being a cohesive fit for the team. Could the trade rumors involving Stephenson actually come to fruition? Can the squad (with or without a trade) fix these supposed chemistry issues? And what will they look like when Kidd-Gilchrist comes back from his stress fracture injury?

Western Conference: Biggest Surprise

Meanwhile, the West is kind of loaded. As we pass the quarter-pole of this season, seven teams (seven) are sitting 10 games above .500 or better. Thing is, I'm not stunned at any of the names sporting those records. All of them have been highly regarded contenders for (at least) the last year or two. At this point, it also doesn't leave much room to sneak in as a Playoff dark horse. Phoenix currently holds the eighth spot, but they missed the last postseason by a game (with 48 wins). So, again, not much of a shock.

That means I've got to go outside the Playoff ladder to even find a surprise. The next rung down is where I'll stop. The Sacramento Kings have been mired in a sea of stink for the past nine years. They've only reached 35 wins once since the 2006-2007 season. They aren't spectacular by any means, except when it comes to rebounding (they're tied for fourth in the NBA with 44.8 rpg). What they do have is a three-headed attack that is making enough plays to push the squad over .500.

DeMarcus Cousins appears to be coming into his own. The power forward leads the team in points (23.5) and boards (12.6) per game. Rudy Gay continues to put points on the board. He's offering up his best scoring (21.5) and assist (4.3) averages as a pro. At the top of the attack, Darren Collison seems to be fitting in just nicely. The journeyman point guard is having his best output with respect to points (15.8) and dimes (6.3) per game. This trio will need more help before everything settles in April, but, at the moment, they're in a good position.

Western Conference: Biggest Disappointment

Just like the "surprise" category, there's not a lot of candidates that truly fit this category. You could possibly look at Phoenix's record as a slight bummer. You could talk about Oklahoma City's awful start, but no Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook speaks (loudly) to the team's 8-13 record. There have also been injuries to other squads near the bottom of the standings (i.e., L.A. Lakers, Minnesota). But, instead of punting on this category, I'm picking the slightest of disappointments (by the slightest of margins).

If there was a preseason favorite dark horse that could possibly crash the Western Conference Playoff party, it was probably the New Orleans Pelicans. Anthony Davis had shown strides during his second season. Coach Monte Williams, while guiding one of the Association's youngest teams, currently has a plethora of athletic wing players (Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, Jrue Holiday) and length (Davis, Omar Asik, Jeff Withey) at his disposal.

But even with Davis' gaudy numbers (24.8 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 2.9 bpg), the Pelicans are a sort of "blah" 10-10 after 20 games. I understand that this franchise is in the NBA's toughest division. I also get the fact that they were 34-48 at the end of last season. However, the buzz around this organization gave the impression that this campaign would launch a little bit higher than sea level.

Most Valuable Player

Now that I've looked back on the portion of the season that was, figure I might as well head the other direction. There's still a ton of ball to play before we find out the Most Valuable Player. But I'm a bit on the impatient side sometimes. So, here's my Why-Even-Do-This-Now MVP candidates. (These statistics include all players whom have played this season, not just qualified candidates.)

Anthony Davis
Tied for third in league scoring (24.8 ppg)
Tenth in league rebounding (10.6 rpg)
League's leading shot-blocker (2.9 bpg)
Twelve double-doubles on the season (tied for 2nd)

DeMarcus Cousins
Seventh in league scoring (23.5 ppg)
League's leading rebounder (12.6 rpg)
Twelve double-doubles on the season (tied for 2nd)

John Wall
Leads the Wizards in scoring (18.0 ppg)
Tied for second in the league in assists (10.4 apg)
Second in the league is steals (2.2 spg)
Twelve double-doubles on the season (tied for 2nd)

Kyle Lowry
Top-20 league scorer (tied for 20th at 20.1 ppg)
Eighth in the league in assists (7.5 apg)

Stephen Curry
Eighth in league scoring (23.5 ppg)
Tied for sixth in the league in assists (7.7 apg)

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:11 PM | Comments (0)

December 9, 2014

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Congratulations to the Calgary Stampeders and L.A. Galaxy, who won the Grey Cup and the MLS Final, respectively.

* I always liked the idea of an eight-team college football playoff. Four is fine, and I'm okay with the selection committee's decision, but it would be fun to see Ohio State vs. Baylor and Florida State against TCU. Still, we're moving in the right direction. There are at least three teams who deserve an opportunity to show they're the best in the country, and this is the first year they'll get a chance to prove it on the field.

* Literal LOL for this: Jeff Fisher sent Janoris Jenkins, Michael Brockers, Zac Stacy, Stedman Bailey, Greg Robinson, and Alec Ogletree to midfield as coin toss captains for the Rams' game against Washington. All six captains were acquired with picks from the RG3 trade. Cold, but clever.

* My favorite quote of the week came from Joe Buck at 5:30 pm: "Arizona's gonna have a rough time winning another game this season." Arizona won about an hour and a half later.

* Right now there is a five-way tie for the top pick in next year's draft. The Buccaneers, Jaguars, Jets, Raiders, and Titans are all 2-11.

2014 Week Fourteen NFL Power Rankings

Brackets show previous rank.

1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Defense played as badly as the offense did well. Atlanta ended the game with 37 points, 26 first downs, 465 yards, only 1 turnover, and 5 touchdowns in five trips to the red zone. Julio Jones did most of the damage (259 yards). The Packers have games coming up against Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, and Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. I think this was just a letdown game — maybe even a letdown half after they went into the locker room leading 31-7 — but they can't afford to give up plays like that in the secondary.

2. New England Patriots [2] — Stalled in the red zone and had a defensive touchdown called back by a dubious penalty. The close score — a single-digit victory and trailing to begin the fourth quarter — doesn't reflect the tide of the game. The Patriots were clearly the better team.

3. Seattle Seahawks [5] — Three straight wins, all by double-digits and all against teams with winning records. The Seahawks handled a bitter rival (49ers) on the road, then went to Philadelphia and mauled the Eagles, who had been on a serious roll. Seattle is peaking at the right time.

4. Denver Broncos [3] — Won with defense. The Broncos sacked Kyle Orton 4 times and forced 3 turnovers, plus a stop when the Bills went for it on fourth down. This is not really about the Broncos any more, but on Sunday night Cris Collinsworth talked about Chargers head coach Mike McCoy, "who was with Peyton Manning all those years." Manning and McCoy were only together for one season, 2012. You might remember that Manning spent most of his career with the Indianapolis Colts.

5. Indianapolis Colts [4] — Played without their best defender (cornerback Vontae Davis, concussion) and got their worst game of the season from Andrew Luck, who finished with 2 interceptions and a lost fumble recovered for a Browns TD. Luck completed just 24 of 53 passes (45%) and Indianapolis went 5/16 on third downs (31%). He wasn't helped by Reggie Wayne, who caught only 1 of his 8 targets and dropped several passes. The Colts overcame their slow start to win for the third week in a row. There aren't a lot of teams that can play badly and still win, but this is one of them right now.

6. Philadelphia Eagles [6] — The PAC-12 has sent several successful coaches to the NFL recently: Pete Carroll (USC), Jim Harbaugh (Stanford), and Philadelphia's Chip Kelly (Oregon). Carroll and Kelly faced each other only once in college, on Halloween of 2009. Kelly's Oregon Ducks won 47-20, with two 150-yard rushers and 613 yards on offense. Carroll got revenge on Sunday, holding the Eagles to 9 first downs and 139 yards of offense. Seattle out-gained the Eagles by over 300 yards (440) and picked up more than three times as many first downs (28).

7. St. Louis Rams [11] — First team with back-to-back shutouts since the 2009 Dallas Cowboys. They've become a team no one wants to play, and they're 3½-point favorites over the 9-3 Cardinals this Thursday.

8. Arizona Cardinals [9] — Haven't scored 20 points in a game since Carson Palmer's season-ending injury. They've averaged just 13 ppg over the last four weeks. Defense wins championships, but to beat teams like Green Bay and Seattle and Philadelphia in the playoffs, they'll need to put some more points on the board.

9. San Diego Chargers [15] — Punter Mike Scifres fractured his clavicle on a blocked punt Sunday night. He had surgery on Monday, and could return for the playoffs if the Chargers qualify.

10. Baltimore Ravens [16] — Didn't miss Pro Bowl defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who is suspended the remainder of the regular season after testing positive for Adderall. The Ravens won a critical game — keeping pace in the competitive AFC North and handing a painful defeat to a rival in the AFC wild card battle — and they won with defense, sacking Ryan Tannehill six times and holding the Dolphins to 249 yards.

11. Buffalo Bills [10] — Too many mistakes against the Broncos: 3 turnovers, 11 penalties for 98 yards, poor red zone defense. On the bright side, rookie receiver Sammy Watkins, who has been struggling with a groin injury, gained more yards on Sunday (127) than in the previous four games combined (105).

12. Detroit Lions [13] — Back-to-back 34-17 victories. There have been a lot of those recently; it's weird. The Lions the last two weeks, the Seahawks in Weeks 12 and 13 (19-3), the Bears in Weeks 11 and 12 (21-13), and sort of the Chiefs (won 24-20 in Week 11, lost 24-20 in Week 12).

13. Dallas Cowboys [12] — Best offensive line performance I've seen all season. They played virtually the whole game without missing a block or losing to the defender. When they had protection breakdowns, it was a running back, a tight end, or an unblocked defender. Dominant game by all five starting offensive linemen.

14. Kansas City Chiefs [8] — Lost three in a row, but they've been competitive against tough teams. They lost by three in Arizona, where the Cardinals are 7-0 this season and 13-2 (.867) under Bruce Arians. There's no shame in that. They lost by 13 to the Broncos, but everyone loses to the Broncos. They lost to Oakland, but that was probably a fluke: a rivalry game, on a short week, in bad weather. This week's loss in the desert turned on a highly questionable officiating decision.

15. Miami Dolphins [7] — There is a limit, I think, to how effective a team can be without passing downfield. The Ravens are vulnerable in the secondary, and Miami never really tried to take advantage. The CBS announcers even mentioned that Miami wasn't testing anything deep. If nothing else, stretching the defense vertically opens up opportunities underneath. Ryan Tannehill averages just 10 yards per completion, second-lowest among qualified passers (Derek Carr, 9.4). The league average is 11.5.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers [19] — Up-and-down in their division games. After a 30-27 win over Cleveland in Week 1, they've played four AFC North teams, with every game decided by at least 20 points:

Week 2: BAL 26, PIT 6
Week 6: CLE 31, PIT 10
Week 9: PIT 43, BAL 23
Week 14: PIT 42, CIN 21

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, and NFC West have more anomalous rivalry games than the other divisions. You know how we sometimes say, "Throw the records out the window when division rivals meet" — I think it's more true in those divisions.

17. Cincinnati Bengals [14] — Home field advantage is down this year. Last season, home teams went 153-102-1 (.600); so far this season, they're 118-89-1 (.570). Six teams were at least +.500 better at home than on the road in 2013:

The Bengals have gone from extreme home-field advantage (8-0 home, 3-5 away) to no advantage (4-2-1 home, 4-2 away). The Saints and Ravens have notably evened out, too. Right now, three teams are at least +.500 better at home:

The biggest change is actually the Cowboys, who last year were a strong home team (5-3 home, 3-5 away, +.250 H) and this season are better on the road (3-4 home, 6-0 away, -.571 H) — a shift of -.821.

18. Houston Texans [18] — J.J. Watt continues to terrorize the league. He had four tackles for loss this week, including three sacks. Jadeveon Clowney hasn't been healthy all season. Can you imagine the damage from that duo if blockers had to account for both of them?

19. Atlanta Falcons [21] — Julio Jones was unstoppable, for the second game in a row. If he's healthy and keeps this up, Atlanta's going to the playoffs.

20. Minnesota Vikings [23] — Weirdly even game. Both teams made 19 first downs. The Vikings gained 411 yards, the Jets 410. And it went into overtime. It was not an impressive win, but it's their second in a row, and four of the last six.

21. Cleveland Browns [22] — Last week, I wrote that I thought the Browns should stick with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Hoyer was awful, for the third or fourth week in a row, and I think it's time to see what Johnny Manziel can do. But I also think this week's poor performance spoke to my reasoning. Hoyer had a bad game, and now it's easy to hand the reins to Manziel. But if they'd switched to Johnny Football, and he stunk up the joint against Indianapolis, the team couldn't realistically switch back to Hoyer. This approach makes things easier for Manziel and for the organization.

22. San Francisco 49ers [20] — Ahmad Brooks missed a meeting this week and was benched for Sunday's game. Brooks is talented, but he seems increasingly like the kind of player who's not worth the trouble. In six regular season games at their new ballpark, Levi's Stadium, the Niners have scored fewer points (98) than the Oregon Ducks (103 in two games).

23. New Orleans Saints [17] — Lost four of their last five, including a blowout defeat against a team that had lost six in a row. The Saints are 3-4 at home. If they lose to the Falcons in Week 16, it would be their first time since 2007 with a losing record at home.

24. Oakland Raiders [32] — Won two of their last three. The last time they played a team that currently has a losing record was ... Week 1. Seriously. They've faced a really tough schedule.

25. New York Jets [24] — From their last drive of the first quarter to their first possession of the fourth quarter, they reached the red zone five times in a row ... and came away with 12 points. Five red zone possessions, 12 points. I guess when your offense is that bad, you feel like a field goal is the best you can do.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Fourteen rush attempts for 26 yards and no first downs. The pass game and defense were nearly as bad. The Bucs are awful and should probably rank lower than this.

27. New York Giants [28] — They're 4-9, and just snapped a seven-game losing streak. All four of their wins were by double-digits, including 45-14 over Washington and 36-7 this week. How do you alternate between blowout victories and spirit-crushing losses?

28. Chicago Bears [25] — In the second quarter, Brandon Marshall made a courageous catch in traffic, on a critical 4th-and-7. Unfortunately, he was injured on the play, suffering two broken ribs and a collapsed lung. He's going to be okay, but his season is over.

29. Carolina Panthers [31] — Everyone's talking about their Week 6 tie with the Bengals, and how it could be the difference in Cincinnati's hopes of winning the AFC North. Turns out, it could also be the difference in the NFC South, where Carolina is only half a game back.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars [27] — Remember when you thought Denard Robinson was going to save your fantasy team?

31. Washington [30] — Five years ago, I saw into the future. Re-reading an old article (to see how I addressed the Cowboys' back-to-back shutouts at the end of the 2009 regular season), I found two comments that look prescient today:

"Washington fans, what makes you think Bruce Allen will do anything Vinny Cerrato didn't?"

"St. Louis has been outscored by 239 points this season and has a real chance to be even worse in this category than last year's winless Lions (-249). It's hard to know how to even begin fixing this team."

Sure enough, the Rams were still terrible two years later, bad enough to earn the 2nd overall pick in the 2012 draft. The way to fix the team, it turned out, was to trade Herschel Walker ransom that pick to Washington, a team run by morons.

32. Tennessee Titans [29] — They rank behind Washington because of injuries: Zach Mettenberger is out for the season (shoulder), replaced by Jake Locker. Washington played this week without its best offensive player (DeSean Jackson) and best defensive player (Keenan Robinson); one or both are likely to return for Week 15.

Basically, Washington probably isn't as bad as it looked on Sunday, while Tennessee might be even worse. The Titans have lost seven in a row, the longest active losing streak in the NFL.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:16 PM | Comments (0)

December 8, 2014

College Football's Selection Committee Got it Right

If you will, indulge in a hypothetical with me.

The day, just like it was this past weekend, is December 7, 2014. As is the case every early December, the day has come when the teams hoping to play for a national title in January will learn their fate after 12 or 13 games on the field. The BCS is dead, and a new system has taken its place.

But it's not in a four-team playoff. Negotiations between the biggest conferences in college football collapsed in 2012. However, one mechanism discussed in those talks lives on. Instead of human pollsters and computer rankings deciding the top two teams, a basketball-esque selection committee has replaced the BCS system.

However, the first year of the selection committee and New Year's Six bowl system has been a disaster. In one of the bigger controversies in college football history, an undefeated, ACC champion Florida State team has been left out of the title game in favor of one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon.

Sure, the SEC and Pac-12 were the best two conferences in college football, and Alabama and Oregon dominated them, respectively, after early October losses. Florida State, meanwhile, won seven one-possession games and trailed at the half of six. Still, no undefeated major conference team since the BCS era began in 1998 had ever been passed up for a pair of one-loss teams.

In response, a crazed mob of fans from #FSUTwitter held the new system's executive committee offices in Irving, Texas, hostage. Florida Gov. Rick Scott, and U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio and Bill Nelson demanded full state and federal inquiries into "Committeeghazi."

Now, aren't you glad we have a four-team playoff to decide college football's champion?

To be clear, no system is perfect. But that's going to be the case no matter what we're talking about for a division of teams that includes 128 full members and spans from Boston to Honolulu. No matter what number of teams are selected, someone is going to be unhappy, fans will be outraged, and the world will keep on turning.

But let's not pretend as if our other favorite sports in America have perfect postseason formats. In next month's NFL playoffs, a 10-6 or 11-5 team will probably miss the playoffs so a 7-9 team can host a playoff game. In the NBA, under .500 teams are routinely allowed to compete for the title.

In the four teams selected to the inaugural College Football Playoff, we have two incredible matchups between college football powers on New Year's Day and, after Saturday, what I believe to be the best four teams in the country.

Let's quickly look at the where the committee probably went wrong. I don't totally understand the committee dropping TCU all the way from No. 3 to No. 6 after a 55-3 win against Iowa State. But if we accept the committee's assertion that every week rankings are drawn up from a blank slate, it does make more sense. Then, it's not very logical for the committee to even be releasing weekly rankings.

The only team to feel a little sorry for among TCU and Baylor is the Horned Frogs. Their only loss was at a fellow 11-1 team, with the game decided on a questionable call. However, TCU did blow a late 21-point lead in that game. Baylor lost at 7-5 West Virginia, and played an atrocious non-conference schedule. The Bears have known that the committee would be looking at scheduling, and still pushed forward with a wasteland of non-conference opponents, Duke in 2018 aside.

There's also been a lot of talk about how the Big 12 may have missed out on a playoff bid because it didn't have a conference championship game. I can't comprehend those complaints, since there's no way (even with expansion) for TCU and Baylor to be in opposite divisions with their campuses less than two hours from each other. Even if there was a Big 12 championship this year with its 10-team, full round-robin setup, it would have featured South champ Baylor against North champ Kansas State.

And while TCU beat a conference minnow by 52, it was Ohio State who beat 13th-ranked Wisconsin by 59 in its third-string quarterback's first start. In that win, the Buckeyes held once-unstoppable (former) Heisman Trophy candidate Melvin Gordon to 76 yards and just 2.9 yards a carry. Teams have been stacking the box against Wisconsin for years, but the Buckeyes did it and executed.

We've also known that the committee, for better or worse, has been using strength of schedule based on opponents' win-loss records. Ohio State's opponents had a combined record of 84-60, while Baylor and TCU's opponents each came in at 61-70. And yes, Ohio State did lose at home to Virginia Tech. But its win two weeks later against AAC co-champ Cincinnati gave it a stronger non-conference win than people are giving it credit for.

Maybe you still think that Baylor and TCU should have been included in a bigger playoff. Conventional wisdom among fans and those who cover the sport seems to be that an eight-team playoff would be the best for the sport and limit the amount of controversy. Some even think that expansion is inevitable. One version of this I've heard is to include all of the Power 5's champions, plus three at-large teams. For this year, that would effectively mean all of the top eight in the rankings would get playoff nods.

But in the era of conference title games, all five conference winners finishing in the top eight is a historical anomaly. Wisconsin even qualified for a Rose Bowl by winning the Big Ten championship two years ago after a five-loss season in which it finished unranked. Would that team deserve to play in a national championship tournament?

And if you take the top eight, the debates and issues become fuzzier. Take last week's committee rankings, for instance. Would teams like No. 8 Michigan State and No. 10 Mississippi State jump No. 7 Arizona after not playing, in effect being rewarded for not playing in their conference championship games? Would a three-loss team like Ole Miss, Kansas State, or Georgia Tech get a serious look? In select years, the inclusion of a three-loss team would be inevitable.

The four-team playoff is the one that makes the most sense for college football. Even though there have been some flaws with the weekly presentation of rankings, the selection of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State should make for an incredible January.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 2:43 PM | Comments (0)

A Sad Stop Just Shy of Cooperstown

Continuing our look at this year's Baseball Writers Association of America ballot, we'll take a look at the rest of the newcomers. Some of them probably have no business being here other than their automatic placement following five years' of retirement as players, but we'll look anyway.

And while we're at it, we'll lament further that, among the voting rules, the writers still can vote for only ten players each. That's just one of a couple of log-jamming factors that make every year's Hall of Fame voting more than a little on the tricksy side and still helps, too often, to keep those who belong absolutely to "waiting their turns."

Regardless, here are the newcomers. We'll begin with two players, one who's going to prove a sad near-miss and the other whose reputation isn't going to let him in for a long time despite his performance papers...

One Near Miss...

Carlos Delgado

By the Bill James Hall of Fame measurements — standards and monitor — Delgado misses a no-questions-asked Hall of Fame case by slivers.

He meets 44 of the Hall of Fame batting standards (the average Hall of Famer meets 50) and scores 110 on the James monitor. (The average Hall of Famer: 100). Two of his top 10 player comps (Willie Stargell, Willie McCovey) are Hall of Famers; one (Jeff Bagwell, Delgado's number four comp) should be; one (David Ortiz, his top comp) is making a case despite his DH status. He was also just the fourth man in major league history to hit 30+ home runs a season in 10 straight seasons.

Delgado had a very long and very shining run with the Blue Jays and the Mets, with a spell (sentence?) in Florida in between. He helped get the Mets to the 2006 National League Championship Series. But his hip finally put paid to his career at a time when a still-healthy Delgado might have produced two more seasons in which his Hall case would solidify further. (You know: that pesky 500 home run total, from which Delgado falls shy by a mere 27. All Delgado would have needed was two more seasons below his career averages — he averages 38 homers, 38 doubles, 120 RBI, and 317 total bases per 162 games — to lock his case down.)

The likely outcome — I don't see him as a one-and-done candidate, though I'm not sure I can predict for sure how many ballots he might survive. While I don't quite see him as a no-questions-asked Hall of Famer — the line at first base begins with Gil Hodges and Jeff Bagwell — Carlos Delgado was a great player.

What they won't forget, unfortunately — Delgado was brutalized in the public eye when he refused to stand during seventh-inning playings of "God Bless America" in 2004 in quiet protests of the Iraq war and occupation, but after he was dealt to the Mets he stood as a gesture of conciliation after having felt he'd made his point.

I never quite understood the hoopla. We weren't talking about the National Anthem, which "God Bless America" isn't. There are and have been far, far worse ways to protest a war and a dubious occupation than Delgado's choice. This wasn't exactly some outlying flag-burning radical we're talking about. He simply did it, explained it quietly, then was done with it when he felt his point had been made. You want to hang him for that? Think of the aforesaid worse ways. Then tell me Delgado was some sort of criminal.

Trivia: Delgado habitually kept running notebooks on league pitchers and their tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses and shared it only with teammates. At least 70 percent of the time, he knows what's coming. Guys loved it. It was a daily team thing. He'd say: "Hey, guys, I got him. Do you want him?" — Former Toronto teammate Homer Bush.

... And One Possible Controversy

Gary Sheffield

By the numbers, and strictly by the numbers, especially the counting stats, Sheffield is a a Hall of Famer if maybe not a first-ballot pick. He hit with breathtaking power, hit for average, reached base prolifically and proficiently, and was swift afoot when he got there even if the stolen base wasn't exactly a signature in his repertoire. It's everything else that's going to keep him from getting there right away, particularly his image.

Sheffield was a nine-time All Star whose 162-game average season looks like this: 103 runs scored, 105 runs batted in, 32 home runs, 29 doubles, .907 OPS. He hit 509 home runs lifetime; he's in the top 25 all-time in walks and runs created; he has the thirteenth-greatest power-speed combination in Show history; and, he's 16th all-time in win probability added.

Now, look at his offensive winning percentage: .687, putting him just inside the top one hundred of all time. That's not something to dismiss, but it tells you a little something. A guy this talented with his kind of performance papers should probably have pulled up far higher, particularly playing in a high offense era but also with his overall tools. Defensively he had a good throwing arm, but he wasn't the rangiest player of his time and he actually helped cost his teams a lot of runs in the field.

Sheffield played on several pennant contenders and won a World Series ring with the 1997 Marlins. His home runs may make you (and him) think he's a no-questions-asked Hall of Famer, but taken all around his paucity of black and gray (top-ten finishing) ink leaves him at pronounced tweener status.

Perhaps that ties into one of the two biggest problems Sheffield has. Rightly or wrongly, Sheffield's was the image of being mostly a one-for-one-and-all-for-Gary player, and it only began with his jarring confession that he tanked plays during his early Milwaukee seasons — after formerly suggesting the Brewers were racist for not playing him at shortstop.

That hurts Sheffield even deeper than his apparently peripheral involvement in the BALCO scandal does. (Oh, he was named in the Mitchell Report, but I'm not convinced entirely that Sheffield was one of the big enchiladas of the era of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances.) But his other big problem has nothing to do with his attitude: He played too much of his career in terrible hitters' parks for his home parks.

Until he got to Atlanta he hadn't played in any home park favorable or at least not harmful to hitters. And he spent just about his entire career battling nagging injuries, which doesn't help in a less than favorable hitting environment as it is. If Sheffield's numbers suggest something less than a bona-fide Hall of Famer considering the high offense era in which he played most of his prime, you'd have to account for his home parks compromising him to a particular extent.

The likely outcome — Sheffield could survive on a few ballots. But he could end up having to wait for a future Veterans Committee arrangement if he's to be in at all.

The Rest of the Newcomers

* Rich Aurilia — Two homers each in each 2002 postseason series for the Giants, and a 6.7 wins above replacement (WAR) level 2001 season in which he also led the National League in hits are probably the highlights of his career. That's all, folks. Aurilia's one of those candidates who's there, most likely, because of his five-years-retirement eligibility; other than the 2001 season and the 2002 postseason, he's about as invisible as invisible gets, though he was a good player for a few seasons.

The likely outcome — Hello and goodbye in the same vote.

Trivia question — Name MLB's only husband-and-wife team to appear on a television soap opera together. Answer: Rich and Raquel Aurilia. They were jurors number 9 and 10 in a trial segment on General Hospital in 2003.

* Aaron Boone — A one-time all-star who had his career-high WAR the following season — in which he just so happened to win a Yankee pennant with a stupefying first-pitch, leadoff bomb off Tim Wakefield in Game 7 of the 2003 American League Championship Series. Then he tore an ACL playing pickup basketball over the offseason and compelled the Yankees to deal for Alex Rodriguez for third base.

He missed 2004 entirely then became a journeyman for five seasons, enjoyed a brief comeback from aortic valve replacement, and was gone for good. But he'll always have that pennant sailing into the seats off the barrel of his bat.

The likely outcome — He wasn't a Hall of Famer in the best season of his life.

What they won't forget — If you have to ask, you weren't there.

* Tony Clark — This is now: he's the executive director of the Major League Baseball Players' Association, having succeeded the sadly ill-fated Michael Weiner. That was then: for his first four full seasons, Clark resembled almost a stereotypical power-hitting first baseman, until back problems gradually sapped his power and turned him into a part-time journeyman for a very long time. Had one unlikely comeback season in 2005. (1.002 OPS in 393 plate appearances — as a part-timer).

The likely outcome — One and done, probably. He wasn't even close to a Hall of Famer when it all shook out, though there was a brief time when he looked like one in the distant making.

* Jermaine Dye — A few healthier seasons more than he actually had might have gotten Dye knocking on the door. He was a talented player who often flashed Hall of Fame ability — his 2005 World Series MVP should testify to that, especially, as should his two all-star seasons and maybe two others — but his defensive decline as he aged also hurt him a lot more deeply than was thought in the time and place.

The likely outcome — Possibly one and done, though he might — might — pick up just enough votes to linger another year.

* Darin Erstad — The Butch Hobson of his generation with a little less long ball power. Just like Hobson, Erstad took a football mentality into baseball (he'd been a punter on the University of Nebraska's 2004 national champion, in fact) and played just about every inning not like it was bases loaded and two out in the ninth but like it was fourth and goal against a goal line stand with one second left in the game.

The Angels actually traded J.T. Snow to make room for the oncoming Erstad on the grounds that Erstad had the hard-nosed approach they thought Snow lacked. So how come — Erstad's now-flukish 2000 monster season aside — the Giants ended up getting a lot more production for a lot longer time out of Snow than the Angels got out of Erstad, reputedly the soul of their team? (If we have an out, we have a chance was Erstad's once-famous watchword.)

The likely outcome — One and done. But they still love him to death in Anaheim.

What they won't forget — Either his Series-winning catch of Kenny Lofton's fly, or his plowing catcher Johnny Estrada at the plate to score a go-ahead run against the Braves in a 2005 interleague game — for which they probably still hate his guts in Atlanta.

I'm not entirely sure, but Erstad, too, may have started the contemporary tradition of longtime players taking out thank-you ads in the local papers after leaving a team, as he did after 2006. It was a photograph of Erstad going headfirst into a base, inscribed, "Thanks for the ride!" There's something admirable about starting something like that.

* Cliff Floyd — There were times when it seemed the only region of Floyd's body that wasn't sending him to the disabled list was his face. He wasn't the bull-headed type that Erstad was, but he was one of the most talented players of his generation and had breathtaking power, and was often considered one of those quiet but firm clubhouse leaders, but you can only guess at what Floyd's final performance papers would have been if he could have stayed healthy.

The likely outcome — One and done.

What they won't forget — Floyd catching the division-clinching out for the 2006 Mets.

* Nomar Garciaparra — Do you remember when they talked about Nomah in the same paragraphs as Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez as the three premier shortstops in baseball? I do. It wasn't just talk. Time was when Garciaparra was one of those three premier shortstops. And it's those great Boston seasons that ensured him pulling up in the end just short of a Hall of Famer. Like Carlos Delgado, another one or two fully healthy seasons might have pushed him across the line. Might.

Garciaparra's image took something of an unfair beating in 2003-2004, when the Theo Epstein regime in Boston looked actively to trade him, after trying (and failing) to get Alex Rodriguez, enraging Garciaparra to the point where he let it be known he wasn't even going to think about returning to the Red Sox after his 2004 walk year.

The Red Sox finally traded him to the Cubs in June of that year, meaning Nomah would miss out on the Red Sox's at-long-enough-last return to the Promised Land. (They were still classy enough to measure him for a ring, likely in honor of what he'd meant to the franchise for long enough.)

Garciaparra had an injury-compromised stay with the Cubs before making a respectable comeback with the Dodgers in 2006. (His first at-bat against former teammate Pedro Martinez, by then a Met: a two-run homer.) It was downhill and out from there. He eventually signed a one-day deal with the Red Sox to retire as one of the Olde Towne Team.

The likely outcome — Not quite one and done, but I can't see him as an eventual Hall of Famer, either. He might linger on another three ballots. Might.

What they'll never forget — Garciaparra's two game-winning homers in 2006. On 18 September, his two-run blast in the 10th won a game the Dodgers sent to extra innings in the first place in the ninth with four straight home runs. In order, Jeff Kent, J.D. Drew, Russell Martin, and Marlon Anderson were the bombardiers. (Martin and Anderson whacked theirs off closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman.) Six days later, Garciaparra won a game with a grand slam.

* Brian Giles — A very good player for a long enough time, but that isn't quite enough. His .450 on base percentage in 2002 was the second best mark in the majors that season.

The likely outcome — Maybe another year on the ballot. Maybe.

What they won't forget, unfortunately — The lawsuit his former girlfriend slapped him with claiming abuse that cause her miscarriage. The miscarriage charge was dropped before trial; a jury found the couple had both abused each other.

* Tom Gordon — If there's a place in the Hall of Fame set aside for players who become subjects of Stephen King novels, Flash would be a first-ballot precedent setter. He's also made 150 starts and saved 150 games, and he was good enough to make a 21-season career, but he wasn't anywhere near the neighborhood of Dennis Eckersley and John Smoltz despite his once-monster curve ball.

The likely outcome — One and done, perhaps.

What they won't forget — See Stephen King, The Girl Who Loved Tom Gordon.

* Eddie Guardado — They didn't call him Everyday Eddie because he was particularly fragile. He had two seasons in which he led the American League in saves and finished second, respectably, setting him up for a big payday in which he made clear he'd pitch in whatever role his team asked of him. Which proved to be mostly as a setup man and a good one.

Had he not shredded his rotator cuff and later needed Tommy John surgery, Guardado might have hung up a career to inspire a solid debate on just how and where guys who close and set up at the top of the line fit in Cooperstown. Unfortunately, that debate will have to wait.

The likely outcome — Probably one and done. And the guy probably deserves better.

* Troy Percival — For his first nine seasons in the role, Percival saved more games than anyone other than Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. He crowned it with nailing the final out (caught by Darin Erstad, see above) of the 2002 World Series.

With Francisco Rodriguez waiting obviously in the wings starting in the 2002 postseason, Percival was allowed to leave as a free agent in 2004, after he graciously made a show of all but handing the baton to K-Rod. The problem was, Percival was a hard worker on the mound and it finally caught up to him: no sooner did he put on a Tiger uniform than a partially torn flexor pronator mass took him out for half of 2005 and all of 2006.

He had an unlikely comeback on the Rays' 2008 pennant winner, but that was a last hurrah. His back finished what the pronator mass started.

The likely outcome — One and done. Applied to a pitcher who once looked like his Hall of Fame ticket was being printed, that's sad.

What they won't forget — That image of Percival thrusting his arms skyward as he arched backward in triumph seconds before his teammates mobbed and buried him on the mound to end the 2002 Series. Angel fans won't forget for generations to come.

* Jason Schmidt — From 2002-04, Schmidt was one of the best in the business and often seen as a Cy Young candidate. (He finished second in 2003.) It's the 12 years surrounding those three that kill him. Promising and fading too often, then his health betrayed him for keeps. Hindsight: Schmidt actually looked better than he really was in 2002-04, especially being one of the keys to the Giants' 2002 pennant winner.

The likely outcome — One and done.

What they won't forget, unfortunately — The free agency deal Schmidt signed with the Dodgers, following which he spent 553 on the disabled list and needed two surgeries. The Dodgers tried to fight their insurance company over a payout but it turned out they knew Schmidt had a partial rotator cuff tear when he signed the deal. Oops!

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

December 5, 2014

Three For the Hall, First Ballot

The Hall of Fame voting by the Baseball Writers Association of America would be interesting no matter what. But now there's a) that little matter of the shrinkage to the 10-year voting eligibility, and b) the presence of at least three no-questions-asked Hall of Famers among those eligible for the first time.

Let's begin a Hall of Fame Class of 2015-to-be examination with a look at the new ballot arrivals. Specifically, with the three whom the writers should have no legitimate business holding off beyond the first ballot. (No arguments on behalf of the ludicrous no-first-ballot "principle" allowed without a note from the doctor. Preferably a practicing psychiatrist.)

The Should-Be Shoo-Ins

Randy Johnson

The Big Unit's been a first ballot Hall of Famer in waiting since the day he retired. Period dot period. And never mind how horrific his fastball was, his slider was almost guaranteed death. If Randy Johnson doesn't make it on the first ballot, it isn't enough that the new rules require the BBWAA voters to disclose their ballots, there should be a formal investigation.

It only begins with Johnson finishing as the leading left-handed strikeout pitcher in major league history. With five Cy Young Awards (including four straight, the only man other than Greg Maddux to accomplish that), finishing fifth in all-time wins by a left-hander (behind Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton, Eddie Plank, and Tom Glavine), finishing ninth on the all-time wins above replacement (WAR) list among pitchers (among post-World War II pitchers, he's behind only Roger Clemens, Tom Seaver, and Maddux), and finishing number one in strikeouts-per-nine, career, all time. (10.6.)

What they won't forget: His dazzling 2001 World Series co-performance with Curt Schilling (who should also be a Hall of Famer), and the fact that he's the oldest man in baseball ever to pitch a perfect game. (He was 40.) And those are just the highlights among highlights. Since his retirement, the Big Unit has fashioned a second career as a talented photographer, capturing anything from African animal life and Americana to auto racing and concert performances by the like of U2, ZZ Top, Soundgarden, and Kiss.

But I'll bet a lot of people still crack up perversely over the pitch that turned a bird flying across the pitching lane into a cloud of feathers.

Pedro Martinez

Go ahead, say it. Measuring him strictly by his career wins, Martinez is going to raise doubts among a few. But if you measure him by everything else that measures a great pitcher, this guy deserves to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He might be the single greatest peak value pitcher since Sandy Koufax that the game has seen this side of Randy Johnson, whose peak value — believe it or not — is just short of his career value even with those Cy Young Awards.

Martinez has three Cy Youngs of his own in tow. He also has five ERA titles pitching in an era full of inflated batting statistics, and those five ERA titles average out to a 2.04. In the same seasons, his fielding independent pitching average was 2.08 — and all five of those led the league, too. He retired with a 1.05 walks and hits per inning pitched rate, and batters hit .214 against him lifetime.

He wasn't quite as good overall in postseason pitching, but when he finally did get to a World Series, in 2004, he pitched seven innings of shutout ball against the Cardinals to win Game 3. Martinez also telegraphed Madison Bumgarner when he threw six innings of hitless relief to clinch a 1999 American League division series.

Like Johnson, Martinez didn't shy away from the intimidator role, for better or worse. But he did it only when he absolutely had to do it. He wasn't afraid to pitch inside and if that earned him a headhunting reputation it was a reputation more exaggerated than anything. (You may remember he once lost a perfect game at the last minute when he hit Reggie Sanders with a pitch, prompting Sanders to charge the mound and make a fool of himself when it was pointed out to him that not even Pedro Martinez is going to wreck his own perfect game by trying to drill you.)

If you're going to call Pedro Martinez a headhunter you have precious little evidence to back it up: his lifetime average of hit batsmen per 162 games is 11, and he isn't even in the top 20 lifetime in that department. In case you were wondering, the Big Unit is tied for number five with Eddie Plunk — er, Plank. Two slop-tossing knuckleballers — Tim Wakefield and Charlie Hough — are in the top 10. But it's Martinez whom everyone calls the deadly headhunter willing to weigh you after decapitation?

Martinez may not be a unanimous pick, but if Martinez isn't a first-ballot Hall of Famer that should be part of the investigation, too.

What some might not forget, the damn fools — That bench-clearing brawl in the 2003 American League Championship Series in which Martinez shoved a charging Yankee coach Don Zimmer to the ground.

It happened following warnings to both benches after Martinez threw one up and in to Karim Garcia that sailed behind and may have grazed Garcia's back. (Martinez to this day remembers the pitch hitting Garcia's bat.) Either way, Garcia took his base and the warnings went out. Then, Garcia took second on an Alfonso Soriano stroke and plowed Red Sox second baseman Todd Walker.

Subsequently, Roger Clemens threw one up over Manny Ramirez's head. It may not have been close to Ramirez, but the intent was very evident, and the benches emptied. With both teams milling on the Fenway Park infield, Zimmer was fool enough to spring out of the dugout and go charging toward Martinez.

What you may not remember: Zimmer was waving a fist as he ran toward the pitcher. Martinez shoved Zimmer to the ground, and Fox broadcasters Joe Buck and Tim McCarver lamented, "Terrible." Martinez would say after the game he had no intention of swinging at Zimmer.

To his credit, Zimmer called his own press conference the following day and apologized. He reiterated it in 2009: "I told the whole world I was wrong and that I was embarrassed by what I'd done and I apologized for it. I was definitely wrong and Pedro didn't do nothing. I told the whole world that, even though the Yankees didn't want me to hold a press conference because they were afraid I might say something to stir things up more."

That was a response to Martinez remembering it at the same time:

"This is probably the first time I'm ever going to talk about it publicly. But when Zim came over to me, I thought he was going to just give me advice or something, just '...you need to slow down or something,' or try to make it look a little bit different.

"But, at that time, I'm going to be honest right now, my shoulder was barking. I was pitching on three days' rest, I think. It was two men on. I loaded the bases with a hit by pitch that wasn't a hit by pitch ... and Zim charged me, and I think he's going to say something. But his reaction was totally the opposite. He was trying to punch my mouth and told me a couple of bad words about my mom. I just had to react and defend myself."

If you don't have the right (the right, mind you) to knock down a man old enough to be your grandfather, since when does Grandpa have the concurrent right to go running across the field looking to clean the clock of a kid who could chew him up for breakfast, lunch, and dinner? God rest his soul in peace, but Don Zimmer wasn't always that lovable.

John Smoltz

The Dennis Eckersley of his generation, not to mention the number three man, behind Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, in maybe the deadliest starting rotation of the 1990s and early 2000s.

But Smoltz was actually a slightly better starting pitcher than Eckersley had been in addition to being a shutdown closer for a few seasons. He was also deadly in the postseason, overall: in division series play, his lifetime ERA is 2.59; in League Championship Series play, it's 2.83; in the World Series, it's 2.47. He also has a 15-4 won-lost record, a .789 winning percentage, and a 2.67 ERA overall in postseason play.

Smoltz is also only the second man (Dennis the Menace is the first) to hang up a 20-win season and a 50+ saves season in baseball history. He went to eight all-star games, has a Cy Young Award and a Rolaids Relief Man of the Year award, and is the only pitcher in major league history to win 250 and save 150. He's the Braves' all-time strikeout leader and the sixteenth to reach 3,000 lifetime strikeouts. And if you like silly records, be advised that Smoltz is the only pitcher in baseball history with more than one ... postseason stolen base.

It'd be a huge laugh that the likable Smoltz's Hall of Fame plaque includes that. But that aside, this guy is a first-ballot Hall of Famer any way you slice him. (If he isn't, that, too, should be part of the investigation.) Come to think of it, you might expect a few laughs from Smoltz during his induction speech as opposed to a few at his expense during a couple of 2014 induction speeches.

"The next seven years (after joining the Braves) were spent winning division titles, watching the kids grow up, and watching John Smoltz's hairline recede." — Greg Maddux

"Greg, as a teammate and as a friend, you made me better through our conversations. You made me better by watching you pitch, and you made me wealthier with all the money we took from Smoltzie on the golf course." — Tom Glavine

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:41 AM | Comments (0)

December 4, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 14

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

Dallas @ Chicago (+3½)

The Bears jumped to a 14-3 at Detroit on Thanksgiving before losing, 34-17. Jay Cutler followed 2 early TD passes with 2 interceptions, and the Lions defense held Matt Forte to 6 yards rushing.

"Whenever we take one step forward," Marc Trestman said, "we always seem to take two back. Those steps add up, so much to the point that someone will eventually have to take a walk. I'm guessing that will be me. Jay Cutler may take the heat, but I'll take the fall. But where on earth could a former CFL coach go after leaving the NFL? 'Oh, Canada,' of course.

"Fans of the Bears are hungry for change. On that note, have you seen the new Hunger Games movie? Apparently, everyone is Chicago has, because they're 'mocking Jay.'"

Like the Bears, the Cowboys were blown out on Thanksgiving, losing 33-10 to the visiting Eagles. The loss left Dallas a game behind the Eagles in the NFC East.

"We spent Black Friday not looking for deals," Jason Garrett said, "but for answers. And we didn't find any. There was a lot of bickering on our sideline. And guess what? Dez Bryant started most of it. That's really not what we had in mind when we asked him to be more of a leader.

"I see a lot of similarities between the Cowboys and the Bears. We both have a perpetually disgruntled wide receiver; we both have a supremely talented tailback; and we both have a quarterback who is associated with pain in the back side. Plus, we both have a defense considered shaky at best. At worst, it's the worst."

Dallas wins, 30-27.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-4)

The Bengals won a tough 14-13 slugfest over the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium, winning despite 3 Andy Dalton interceptions.

"Andy was battling the effects of the flu," Marvin Lewis said. "We were battling the effects of Andy. Anyway, Andy with the flu is not different than Andy without the flu — he's hot, he's cold, he's hot, he's cold."

The Steelers lost a crucial home game to the Saints last week, giving up five Drew Brees touchdown passes in a 35-32 loss to fall to 7-5 in the AFC North.

"The game was not as close as the score indicated," Mike Tomlin said. "That's basically the story of our season: you can't trust our offense, you can't trust our defense, and you can't even trust our scoreboard.

"I fully expect Dick LaBeau to remedy the ills of our defense. Dick's been a player or coach in the NFL for a whopping 56 years. That makes two people that a lot of fans think have been here long enough."

The Steelers find themselves in the same position the Saints did last week: on the road, in a hostile environment, in desperate need of a win. Steelers respond.

Pittsburgh wins, 29-27.

St. Louis @ Washington (+3)

Colt McCoy passed for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns, but it wasn't nearly enough in a 49-27 loss at Indianapolis. The Redskins gave up 487 yards of total offense, including 370 through the air.

"We just couldn't stop the Indianapolis offense," Jay Gruden said. "It's easy to get behind when it's so easy to get behind our defense. Obviously, Robert Griffin III isn't the only player who needs to work on his craft.

"Clearly, McCoy is our starter going forward, and Griffin will remain his backup. Now, his commercials are much more applicable, because he's advocating the 'Sub-way.'"

The Rams punished the Raiders 45-0 last week, and St. Louis is now 5-7 in the NFC West. St. Louis piled up 172 yards on the ground, and forced 5 turnovers and collected 6 sacks.

"Tre Mason rushed for 117 of those yards," Jeff Fisher said. "Before the game, Tre asked 'What's the game plan, Coach?' I replied loudly, 'On the ground!' Thankfully, Tre complied and everything worked out.

"Some of my players raised their hands in a salute to Ferguson, Missouri. After that, it was off to the racist, I mean races. Ironically, it was the Raiders who were actually 'defenseless.'"

On their first offensive series, the Rams line up in a pistol formation, aimed directly at Redskins linebacker Everette Brown. Things go downhill for the Redskins from there.

St. Louis wins, 27-20.

NY Giants @ Tennessee (-1)

The Giants blew a 21-0 lead at Jacksonville and lost 25-23 to the Jaguars. Three turnovers were the G-Men's downfall, as two were returned for touchdowns.

"Our guys can't hold the ball with five fingers," Tom Coughlin said, "much less three.

"Fans and players alike are still buzzing about Odell Beckham's amazing catch. Amazingly, he did it with three fingers. And that's way more impressive than anything Lawrence Taylor's done in the same fashion.

"I take responsibility for our seven-game losing streak. Ultimately, it may cost me my job. Look, there are a lot of reasons ownership could cite to fire me. And it would take at least two hands to count them on. But there are reasons to keep me around, and you can count those on two fingers."

The Titans are 2-10 after last week's 45-21 loss at Houston. Tennessee gave up 6 touchdown passes to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

"And I thought the only way to stop Fitzpatrick from killing the Titans was to release him," Ken Whisenhunt said.

Giants win, 24-20.

Carolina @ New Orleans (-10)

The Panthers' road trip to Minnesota was a disaster, as Carolina fell behind early on their way to a 31-13 loss. The Panthers had two punts blocked by the Vikings in the first half, both of which were returned for touchdowns.

"Our kicking game obviously needs some work," Ron Rivera said. "We haven't seen a punter mistreated like this in Minnesota since Chris Kluwe. If I spoke my mind like Kluwe was known for doing, I would say outright that Cam Newton is awful. Of course, he's been hampered by an ankle injury. Cam's gone from being a running quarterback to a barely walking quarterback.

"Our playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. And my job is hanging by a rope, because I saw my likeness with a noose around its neck in Charlotte the other day. That's called 'hanging in effigy.' Now, if you graded our performance this year, likewise, it would be an 'F,' maybe even a 'G.' The season is long, and the alphabet is longer, so things could get even worse."

The Saints reclaimed a tie for the division lead with a huge 35-32 win at Heinz Field over the Steelers last week. Drew Brees threw for 257 yards and 5 touchdowns as New Orleans improved to 5-7.

"I think the NFC South winner will prove several people wrong," Drew Brees said, "especially the person who first said, 'You can't win for losing.'

"You probably saw Sean Payton and Rob Ryan bickering on the sideline. Sure, they've had their differences, mainly in diet, but at the end of the day, Sean has Rob's back. Sean's not afraid to say what he feels to Rob, so whether he's chewing the fat or chewing out the fat, Sean gets his point across."

New Orleans wins, 30-23.

NY Jets @ Minnesota (-5)

The Vikings shut down the visiting Panthers on their way to a 31-13 win. Minnesota returned two blocked punts for touchdowns, and Teddy Bridgewater threw 2 touchdown passes.

"When you have a 'rushing attack' like that," Mike Zimmer said, "who needs Adrian Peterson? For that matter, who needs Adrian Peterson, period?"

The Jets leaned on their running game heavily in Monday night's 16-13 loss over the Dolphins. New York amassed 277 yards on the ground, but when they needed a passing game on their final drive, the Dolphins intercepted Geno Smith.

"We ran the ball down the Dolphins' throat," Rex Ryan said. "Ironically, it was Geno who coughed it up. It will be that lack of a passing attack that will ultimately get me fired. But not if I resign first. If I do that, it will be a very short press conference. In 2014 Jets fashion, I'll say 'gotta run.'

"I think you could see wholesale changes in this organization. I think you could see retail changes as well, because those employees in the pro shop can't sell anything with a Jets logo on it."

Vikings win, 17-16.

Baltimore @ Miami (-3)

Phillip Rivers torched the Ravens' defense for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Ravens suffered a costly loss, 34-33 at home. Baltimore is now 7-5, two games behind the Bengals in the AFC North.

"That stings," John Harbaugh said. "If you ask any member of our secondary, they'll tell you it burns.

"Let's be honest. The play of our defensive backs was appalling. How appalling, you may ask? It was so appalling, we suggested Janay Rice apologize for it. And while we're on the subject of saying things you don't mean, how's this for a statement: we're going to make the playoffs."

The Dolphins remained in second place in the AFC East after last Monday's tight 16-13 win over the Jets. With the Patriots loss to the Packers, Miami now trails New England by two games in the AFC East.

"Things are getting tight," Joe Philbin said, "most notably my sphincter. The race for the AFC's two wildcard spots is going to come down to the wire. This game could very well determine who's in and who's out. Hopefully, when all is said and done, we'll be 'in like 'Fin.'"

"Ray Rice won his appeal with the league and has been reinstated into the NFL. I hear a few teams have expressed interest in Ray. Apparently, some teams have ten-foot poles."

Does the Ravens defense scare anyone anymore, except the Ravens? Does the Miami offense scare anyone other than the Dolphins? This could be a matchup pitting the movable force against the stoppable object.

Miami wins, 23-20.

Indianapolis @ Cleveland (+3½)

The Browns lost at Buffalo, 26-10, last week. Brian Hoyer was benched in the second half after throwing two interceptions, and Johnny Manziel took over and scored his first NFL touchdown.

"If you've got 'money,'" Mike Pettine said, "you also have to be able to make 'change.'

"I think Johnny played well. He's a playmaker. You saw that in his ten-yard touchdown run just minutes after entering the game. If Johnny's capable of one thing, it's putting his signature on a game. But am I ready to hand over the offense to him? No. Not just yet. This is still Hoyer's team. I'm not quite ready to sign off on Manziel."

The Colts turned back the Redskins, 49-27, last week, led by Andrew Luck, who passed for 370 yards and 5 touchdowns. Indy improved to 8-4, two games ahead of the Texans in the AFC South.

"That was my tenth game this year with 300 yards passing," Luck said. "That broke Peyton Manning's franchise record. Of course, I set it against the Redskins defense. They should call that defense the 'Library of Congress,' because it's responsible for so many 'records.'

"Trent Richardson is making his return to Cleveland. I think the city should welcome him back with a parade. A very short parade, I might add. Say, of a length of about 3.3 yards."

The Browns use their rushing attack to keep Luck and the Colts offense off the field, and Hoyer does just enough to lead the Browns to victory, but not enough to quell the quarterback controversy.

Cleveland wins, 27-24.

Tampa Bay @ Detroit (-9)

The Lions whipped the Bears 34-17 on Thanksgiving, led by Calvin Johnson's 146 yards receiving and two touchdowns. The win kept Detroit one game behind the Packers in the NFC North and in solid shape for a wild card berth.

"There's something to be said for a healthy Johnson," Matthew Stafford said, "as well as a reliable kicker, which we have now in Matt Prater. They call Calvin 'Megatron.' They call Prater 'Mini-Bar.'

"We won't take the Bucs lightly. Much like the NHL's Tampa Bay Lightning, the Bucs are lethal with a man advantage. Of course, as the Cincy game showed, the Bucs could use some help on the penalty kill."

The Bucs' hopes to stay relevant in the NFC South race all but ended with a 14-13 loss to the visiting Bengals. A reception that would have put the Bucs in easy field goal range was overturned because of too many men on the field, and Tampa dropped to 2-10 in the NFC South.

"You probably saw that story in all the local newspapers," Lovie Smith said. "It was in the 'Extra' edition.

"Obviously, we could use a lesson from the rules committee, as well as one from the Seahawks on the proper usage of the '12th Man.'"

Detroit wins, 27-14.

Houston @ Jacksonville (+4)

The Texans smashed the Titans 45-21 last week to remain two games behind the Colts in the AFC South. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 6 touchdowns, one to J.J. Watt, who also had 6 quarterback hits, 3 tackles, 2 sacks, a fumble recovery, and what is sure to be a "12 Days of Christmas" spinoff song.

"J.J. is the true savior who will take us to the promised land," Bill O'Brien said, "but he's not Jesus. Otherwise, I'd have him heal Jadeveon Clowney for good.

"Now, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Fitzpatrick throws six more touchdowns. And I wouldn't be surprised if it takes him our remaining four games to do so."

The Jaguars erased a 21-0 deficit to shock the Giants 25-23, winning for the second time this season. Jacksonville turned two New York fumbles into 14 points, and Josh Scobee nailed the game-winning 43-yard field goal with 28 seconds left.

"I was a big day in Jacksonville," Gus Bradley said. "We recognized some of the best players in Jaguars history. In the first half, the Giants recognized some of our worst."

Houston wins, 24-23.

Buffalo @ Denver (-9)

The Broncos moved one step closer to the AFC West title with a 29-16 win at Arrowhead Stadium. The Broncos rushed for 214 yards as a team, including 168 from C.J. Anderson.

"Offensive balance is important as the weather gets colder," Peyton Manning said. "We intend to stick to that belief. We don't want to be like John Fox and lose our balance.

"But Coach Fox's dizzy spells happen a lot less often. Now, he only gets that way when I try to explain the offense to him, or football in general."

The Bills overcame a slow start before pulling away from the Browns and winning, 26-10. Buffalo's solid defense stifled the Browns attack, and Dan Carpenter kicked four field goals.

"We forced Brian Hoyer out of the game," Mario Williams said, "and Johnny Manziel into it. Fittingly, it took the 'Bills' to get the 'Money' in the game.

"Our goal in Denver is to force another quarterback change. If we can knock Manning out of the game, his backup Brock Osweiler will be forced to play. He's a 6'8" giant. If we can get Osweiler in the game, the he, as well as our defense, will be ready to 'throw down.'"

Alas, the Bills only sack Manning once, while the Denver defense gets to Kyle Orton five times. Manning throws 4 TD passes and the Broncos pull away in the second half.

Denver wins, 34-17.

Kansas City @ Arizona (-1)

The Cardinals lost their second consecutive game, falling 29-18 to the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. Their lead in the NFC West is now down to one game over the Seahawks.

"We're not going to panic," Bruce Arians said, "because everything about me says 'be cool.' Besides, we're returning to University of Phoenix Stadium after a two-game road trip. We call it 'coming back to the field,' and so do our NFC West rivals.

"The Chiefs have at least one thing going for them, and that's youth on offense. Don't get me wrong. They're not young age-wise, they just run a high school offense."

The Chiefs offense was stagnant in a disappointing 29-16 loss to the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium. K.C. produced only 151 total yards and fell two games behind the Broncos in the AFC West.

"Offensive production is a state of mind," Andy Reid said. "All I can do is tell my guys to 'check their heads.' By that, I mean for them to simply look at the arrowhead on the helmet of a teammate — it will tell them which direction to go.

"Jamaal Charles didn't get nearly enough touches in Denver. That will change. We're going to keep feeding Jamaal the ball, and Alex Smith is happy about that. If there's one thing Smith is perfectly suited to do, it's run the Jets' offense."

Charles rushes for 125 yards on 27 carries, but a late Smith interception leads to a Chandler Catanzaro field goal.

Cardinals win, 23-20.

Seattle @ Philadelphia (-1)

The Seahawks hammered the 49ers 19-3 in San Francisco on Thanksgiving night, displaying the defensive dominance that carried them to last season's Super Bowl title. Richard Sherman had 2 interceptions, and Seattle limited the 49ers to 164 yards of total offense. Seattle trails Arizona by a game in the NFC West.

"Much like Jed York," Pete Carroll said, "Richard Sherman owns the 49ers, and hates Jim Harbaugh. I think Harbaugh is as good as gone after the season. I'm not sure what team he'll be with, but I think his mind is already made up. That's why I asked him after the game, 'What's your deal?'

"We're peaking at the right time. And so are the Eagles. But they're doing it with Mark Sanchez. Sanchez hasn't seen a defense quite like this. The difference between the Dallas defense and the Seahawks defense is like night and day. Against the Dallas D, there's nothing but daylight. Against the Legion of Boom, it's lights out."

The Eagles pounded the Cowboys 33-10, led by 159 yards and a TD on the ground from LeSean McCoy. The win gave Philly the outright lead in the NFC East.

"The game was in AT&T Stadium," McCoy said, "and we certainly left our 'number.'

"Marshawn Lynch and I may have differing styles, but we both believe we're the best running back in the league. Lynch hates being in the public eye, but I hear he's trying to change. Mr. 'Beast Mode' is working on building a website, and I hear his new official website, '.com Mode,' is almost up and running."

Seahawks win, 26-21.

San Francisco @ Oakland (+8)

The Raiders were demolished 52-0 last week at St. Louis as the Oakland offense turned the ball over five times. Derek Carr was benched for Matt Schaub, who threw a pick-six.

"I'm sure Al Davis would have been sickened by what took place on the field," Tony Sparano said. "It's one thing to roll over in your grave, but to do so on the field is inexcusable.

"Rumor has it that Jim Harbaugh could be in Oakland next season. Fact has it that I won't be in Oakland next year."

The 49ers were whipped at home by the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night in a 19-3 loss. Seattle held the 49ers to a paltry 164 yards of total offense. San Fran is now 7-5.

"There's a rumor that Levi's is yanking their stadium sponsorship," Colin Kaepernick said, "because the Seahawks beat the pants off of us.

"But I suspect the Raiders will probably have some tricks in their playbook. But we'll be ready. Coach Harbaugh always prepares us for the unexpected, like, for example, his return to San Francisco. Anyway, unless the Raiders pull something out of a black hat in the 'Black Hole,' we should win easily."

San Francisco wins, 25-10.

New England @ San Diego (+4)

The Patriots lost in Green Bay in Week 13's game of the week. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers played to a virtual standstill, but the Packers rushing attack, led by Eddy Lacy, was the difference.

"Lacy is a talented guy," Brady said. "It's like he's a combination of LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, and Shane Vereen. By that, I mean he gets 20 carries a game.

"Aaron Rodgers has all the physical gifts," Tom Brady, "as well as the mental tools required of an elite quarterback. If you were creating the perfect quarterback, you would base it on Rodgers. You could say he's the 'Giselle Bundchen' of quarterbacks, because he's a 'super model.'"

Phillip Rivers led a fourth-quarter comeback at Baltimore, as the Chargers overcame a ten-point deficit to pull out a 34-33 win. Rivers' one-yard TD pass to Eddie Royal was the game-winner.

"We showed a lot of heart," Rivers said, "especially me, because I wear mine on my sleeve.

"This is a tough, three-game stretch for us. Last week, it was Joe Flacco. This week, it's Brady. Next week, it's Peyton Manning. They're all Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. If we can win all three, that would be an impressive feat. As a Catholic, I'd consider it my new 'Holy Trinity.'"

New England wins, 30-20.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-13)

The Falcons kept the lead in the NFC South with a dominating 29-18 win over the Cardinals last week. Julio Jones posted 10 receptions for 189 yards and a score, and Matt Bryant kicked 5 field goals.

"I look forward to playing in Lambeau Field," Matt Bryan said. "There's a lot of history there. We plan to be a part of it. By the time we leave, people will be saying, 'They're history.'"

The Packers held off the visiting Patriots 26-21 last week as Green Bay remained unbeaten at home. Aaron Rodgers threw 2 touchdown passes and now has 20 TDs without an interception this year at Lambeau Field.

"I like to call myself the 'Old Milwaukee of Quarterbacks,'" Aaron Rodgers said, "because it doesn't get any better than this.

"And speaking of 'three-dollar six-packs,' check out Eddy Lacy's new ab workout video tape. It's called 'One Hundred Crunches to Better Abs, or an Empty Bag of Potato Chips.'"

Green Bay wins, 35-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:41 PM | Comments (0)

December 3, 2014

In Defense of Arnaud Clément

For a few days following the French's devastating (at least from their perspective) defeat at the hands of the Swiss team in the finals of the Davis Cup campaign, Arnaud Clément, the captain of the French team, experienced what most losing Davis Cup captains go through in such periods. He suffered the wrath of retrospectively enlightened critics who seem to know better, the angry fans who are looking for a victim to blame, and anyone (and everyone) who claims that they would have known what to do, had they been in his shoes.

While the irresistible art of "armchairing" gripped those who believed — in the aftermath, of course — that Clément made the wrong decisions, anyone with a rational approach to the ins and outs of the developments leading up to, and through, the final weekend, should be able to see that his choices were not the wrong at the time that he had to make them.

The first challenge that faced Clément was to nominate four players that were to represent the French team against the Swiss. He had an accomplished doubles team composed of Julien Benneteau and Édouard Roger-Vasselin, the winners of the 2014 Roland Garros title. Had he picked them, he would have had to leave out two of the following players out of the team: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, Gaël Monfils, and Richard Gasquet. Furthermore, his head would have been hanging at the Place de la Concorde even before the weekend was over, had one of the two singles players that he picked got injured on Friday, and was substituted by one of the doubles players on Sunday, leading to an almost-guaranteed loss.

He did what any reasonable coach would do. Unless you have an extraordinary doubles team, such as the Bryan brothers of the USA, you go with your strong singles players who could collect four out of the five points that you need to win the tie, and hope that two of them can combine to provide a solid doubles effort.

Out of the four strong singles players mentioned above, two of them could also play doubles: Gasquet and Tsonga. In fact, they won a crucial doubles match against a formidable Thomas Berdych/Radek Stepanek in Davis Cup when they played the Czech team, and did reach the quarterfinals of the Toronto Masters 1000 having beaten a respectable Laender Paes/Stepanek team, only to withdraw in the quarterfinals. In contrast, Simon and Monfils are singles players. Clément wanted one doubles specialist on the team and he took Benneteau, a sensible choice. It is also reasonable that he picked the two singles players that could also play doubles, and chose only one out of the two other players who could play singles. Calm down, Simon fans (and I happen to be one myself), but on clay, Clément's choice to pick Monfils over your guy was completely understandable and justified.

Friday ended with a 1-1 tie, and displayed a version of Roger Federer that represented a level situated somewhere between "terrible" and "mediocre" compared to his real one. None of the after-the-fact armchair experts could have predicted that Federer's level would rise in the following 48 hours faster than the Enterprise accelerated from ¼ impulse drive to Warp Speed nine. Most believed that Tsonga and Gasquet would triumph over Wawrinka and Federer, and that is, if Federer played doubles in his limited condition.

However, on Friday two things happened that were completely outside the control of either captain. First, Tsonga injured his wrist, which caused him to withdraw, by his own request, from the doubles. Second, Federer played through his match against Monfils with no pain in his back, and although he got crushed by the Frenchman, he was unusually upbeat about the rest of the weekend. Clément once again made the only reasonable decision: replace Tsonga with Benneteau, and thus, put his two best doubles players on the court.

Gasquet and Benneteau did not play bad, but Wawrinka and Federer played the kind of sensational doubles that they have not played since their run to the gold metal back in 2008 Olympic Games. Three sets later, Switzerland took a 2-1 lead in the tie, and everything went from bad to worst on Sunday when Federer put up one of his better clay-court performances in the last few years, running Gasquet around and finishing the points with remarkable shot-making skills.

Just like that, the Swiss won the Davis Cup, and the Statlers and Waldorfs of the world came out in numbers, ready to guillotine Clément. Yet, once again, Clément's choices were not only the most reasonable ones to make, but as seen above, the only ones he could make in certain cases. It was one of the most unfortunate weekends for a Davis Cup captain that I have ever witnessed, because it contained every twist needed to transform it into the "festival of blame" that followed the next few days in the French tennis circles.

Unfortunately for Clément, if someone wanted to write a script to make him look bad at the end of the day, they could not have done a better job. First, the controversy surrounding the Swiss team, involving the Wawrinka/Mirka malaise on the preceding weekend in London, followed by the unexpected injury of Federer that caused him to withdraw from the finals against Novak Djokovic, made the Swiss team look beatable and demoralized, thus giving the impression that the French had the psychological upper hand.

Second, the fact that the French had two weeks of preparation on clay, versus the less-than-a-week preparation time for the Swiss, not to mention that Federer had a total of one hour and 20 minutes of total practice time before Friday's first match, added to the impression that the French had all the necessary elements tilted to their advantage.

Last, the aura of having a team composed of Monfils, Tsonga, and Gasquet, that has never lost at home, firmly put the French in the favorite category in the perceptions of many, although reality was the opposite, at least on paper. These factors combined to create a firm belief by the French that losing to Switzerland on that particular weekend in Lille would be considered nothing less than a debacle. Clément ended up in the position of a captain who would either be doing only what was expected had France won, or face the prospect of being profiled as a failure in the case of a loss. Unfortunately for him, the latter took place.

Fortunately for him, however, the French Tennis Federation recently consulted the players, and they stood tall behind Clément, ensuring that he remains at least one more year as their captain. One day before that, Yannick Noah expressed his disappointment over the loss and explicitly verbalized his interest to become the captain if given the opportunity. I am a big fan of Yannick Noah, and he has already proven to be an astute Davis Cup captain in the past (remember 1991 and his decision to play Henri Leconte in singles). Yet, I can't help but agree with the players in Clément's case and disagree with the armchair crew, who has the luxury to speak in retrospect, unlike the captain.

Clément did carry them to the finals and the French need to understand that for one weekend in November, they faced a Swiss team that had superior skills and better level of quality in their tennis than they did. Donned with the number two and four players in the world, and one of the most underrated coaches in tennis (Severin Lüthi), the Swiss lived up to their potential under very difficult circumstances.

Considering Wawrinka's form and Federer's quick recovery, followed by his excellent level of play on Saturday and Sunday, I am not sure if Clément would have coached his team to victory, even under the best of circumstances. Davis Cup captains sometimes do commit mistakes and fail, and even deserve to be fired in extreme circumstances. But the loss against Switzerland two weekends ago was not one of those cases. Clément should rightfully remain in his position and deservedly get another chance to lead his team in 2015.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:03 AM | Comments (0)

December 2, 2014

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* My inclination in QB controversies is usually to stick with whoever's starting. It's easy to bring in a popular backup if he struggles. But if you bench the first guy, you're handcuffed. You can replace Brian Hoyer with Johnny Manziel. You can't replace Manziel with Hoyer. I'd start Hoyer in Week 14.

* Is the AFC North really the best division in football? There are no bad teams in that division, but also no great ones; it would be shocking if an AFC North team wins the Super Bowl. Their records are inflated because they've beaten up on the weak NFC South.

* According to the Simple Ranking System at pro-football-reference.com, the AFC East is the strongest division in football. The AFC North ranks fourth.

* The AFC East (Patriots, Dolphins, Bills) and AFC West (Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers) have three very good teams, maybe three teams better than anyone in the AFC North. The NFC West (Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams) is probably better than the AFC North, too. Using my rankings, the best division right now is the AFC East, followed closely by the NFC West.

* This is kind of fun ... most TDs by team:

1. Packers, 46
2. Broncos, 45
3. Colts, 44
4. Patriots, 43
5. Eagles, 42

The Saints are sixth (39), but that breaks the pattern.

Week 13 Rant: Show the Game

Televised football is great. Few sports lend themselves so well to TV, and that's a big part of why football surpassed baseball as the most popular sport in the USA. The NFL is by far the most popular sports league in the country. What's mystifying is why so many TV networks are convinced that we don't really want to see the games.

On Monday Night Football, ESPN missed a fumble because they were showing one of the luxury boxes. This is a pattern for ESPN; they routinely miss the beginning of the play, because they're showing fans in the stands, or a close-up of some dude's face. I guess there must be some people in this country who want to see those shots, but they are dramatically out-numbered by those of us who want to see the whole game. Whenever the offense is at the line, we should see the field.

My local CBS affiliate hates football fans. I live in an NFC East market, so they're rarely obligated to show a particular game; they could just choose the best one each week. Yet every single week, we get a quasi-local team or an NFC East team. They've skipped some really good games to show blowouts involving those teams. Whoever makes the programming decisions apparently believes that no one will watch unless they have a rooting interest. This is the most popular sport on the continent, dummy — 95% of us just want to watch good games.

This Sunday, we missed the first two drives of the highly-anticipated Packers/Patriots matchup, because CBS chose to do double commercials, six ads in a row after the early game ended. Go to hell, CBS.

2014 Week Thirteen NFL Power Rankings

Brackets indicate previous rank.

1. Green Bay Packers [2] — All five of their first-half possessions went more than 50 yards and resulted in scores. They won Super Bowl 48½, but could have and probably should have won by even more. The Packers went 0/4 in the red zone, settling for short field goals each time. When you gain 478 yards with no turnovers, you expect to score more than 26.

2. New England Patriots [1] — They've faced a murderer's row recently. Their last four games were against the 9-3 Broncos, 8-4 Colts, 8-4 Lions, and 9-3 Packers. To escape from that 3-1, and win the first three by more than 20 points each, is awfully impressive.

3. Denver Broncos [3] — Comfortable win over a division rival with a good record. The Broncos played without their top cornerback (Aqib Talib) and starting tight end (Julius Thomas). Denver went just 1/6 in the red zone, settling for five short field goals (37 yards or closer). That they still won by double digits should worry the rest of the AFC.

4. Indianapolis Colts [4] — Big-play offense. The Colts gained 487 yards with only 19 first downs. They had as many points as plays (49). They scored five offensive touchdowns from outside the red zone, and should have had a sixth, on Coby Fleener's wide-open drop. In the third quarter, they ran five plays and scored 21 points.

5. Seattle Seahawks [8] — For the second consecutive week, they won 19-3 over a division rival. They were the 14th and 15th 19-3 games in NFL history. Ten of the 15 have come in the last 20 years, probably because successful field goals are so much more common. The Seahawks have three 19-3 wins in their history; no other team has more than one.

6. Philadelphia Eagles [9] — Are you familiar with the +/- system in hockey (and sometimes basketball)? You assess the team's goal differential when a given player is on the ice. Here's that same idea, applied to Philadelphia's offensive line.

Jason Peters: 9-3, +90
Lane Johnson: 6-2, +72
Jason Kelce: 7-1, +66
Todd Herremans: 6-2, +57
Andrew Gardner: 4-0, +48
Evan Mathis: 4-1, +48
Matt Tobin: 4-3, +25
David Molk: 2-2, +24
Allen Barbre: 1-0, +17
Dennis Kelly: 2-1, +1

I included all games started by the player, so this isn't quite as precise as the hockey stat. The return of players like Johnson and Kelce has made the Eagles a dangerous team in the NFC.

7. Miami Dolphins [7] — One of two teams I saw kick away from a dangerous kickoff returner in Week 13. The Dolphins kicked away from Percy Harvin, and the Chargers kicked away from Jacoby Jones. Kicking away from punt returners is smart; doing the same thing on kickoffs is idiotic.

The Jets began drives following kickoffs at the 19, 40, and 39-yard lines. That's an average of the 33. No kickoff returner in the league averages 33 yards per return. Harvin's career average is 27.4.

The Ravens began drives following kickoffs at the 39, 31, and 47-yard lines before San Diego gave up and kicked deep the next three times. Kickoff returners fumble almost three times as often as they score touchdowns. There is no such thing as a kickoff returner so dangerous you should routinely squib to avoid him.

8. Kansas City Chiefs [6] — Second poor performance in a row. They went 1/11 on third downs and finished with just 151 yards of offense. The only thing they did well was kickoff returns, starting seven of eight drives beyond the 30-yard line.

The Chiefs weren't going to win this game anyway, but I don't understand Andy Reid's decision-making. Right before the end of the first half, Kansas City was trailing 20-7. With :16 remaining, they had 1st-and-10 at their own 38-yard line, with two timeouts. Alex Smith took a kneel-down and they went into the locker room. Why not run a play or two and try to score? You're near midfield already. Is it really more likely that you'll turn the ball over on the first play than that you can get into range for a field goal or a Hail Mary? Bad coaching.

9. Arizona Cardinals [5] — Okay, see, now I'm wishing I didn't choose Patrick Peterson on my Pro Bowl ballot.

10. Buffalo Bills [12] — They're 7-5. They've won their last two games by a combined 64-13, and four of their last six. No one who's beaten them has a losing record. They're not a Super Bowl contender, and with three of the next four against Denver, Green Bay, and New England, they're probably not a serious playoff contender. But they're playing good football.

11. St. Louis Rams [17] — The idea of power ratings is to look beyond a team's record, considering factors like margin of victory and strength of schedule. The Rams just won 52-0. They beat the Broncos by two touchdowns. They beat the Seahawks in Seattle. Everyone they've lost to since the opener has a winning record.

The Rams began the season dealing with injuries and taking it slow with their rookies. Now they're healthy, and getting major contributions from those rookies. This is not the same team that began 1-4. If they'd started a little faster and didn't play such a challenging schedule, the Rams would be a dangerous playoff contender.

12. Dallas Cowboys [10] — Season-low in rushing for DeMarco Murray, who gained less than half as many yards (73) as LeSean McCoy (159). At least Murray didn't get caught picking his nose on national television.

13. Detroit Lions [14] — It was a happy Thanksgiving in Detroit, where the Lions scored more points in the first half (24) than in their previous two games combined (15). Calvin Johnson was particularly impressive, making highlight-reel catches and bringing his career total to 10,052 receiving yards — after only 7½ seasons. He averages 1,399 yards per 16 games, or 1,487 yards if you exclude his rookie season. Again, that's his average over the past 6½ years.

14. Cincinnati Bengals [15] — Last season, they went 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road. This year, it's 4-1-1 at home, 4-2 away. The Bengals just won three games in a row, all on the road. They have a tough remaining schedule, every game against an opponent with a winning record, but they're a game and a half up in the AFC North.

15. San Diego Chargers [18] — Had to play their fifth center of the season, Trevor Robinson, after Chris Watt left the game with an injury. From Weeks 2-6, the Chargers won five consecutive games. Then they lost three straight. Now they've won three in a row again, their third streak this season of at least three games.

16. Baltimore Ravens [13] — The pivotal interference call against Anthony Levine was certainly questionable. Dan Fouts was sure it was a bad call; Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison were sure it was correct. I can see it either way. If it were up to me, I would have let it go.

But let's address something that should worry Baltimore going forward. Casual fans may wonder why I wrote about the injury to cornerback Jimmy Smith for three weeks in a row. Here's why: Weeks 1-7 (with Smith) and Week 8-13 (without). The stats below are defensive: points allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, and passer rating allowed.

Over the last two games, the Ravens have allowed 69 completions for 803 yards and 6 TDs. The Chargers went 9/11 on third downs, including 7/7 in the first half. They gained 440 yards, 31 first downs, 34 points. That doesn't happen because of one shaky call by the refs. This defense can't stop anyone right now.

17. New Orleans Saints [19] — I hate when people base their rankings on head-to-head results any later than Week 2 or so.

Week 9: Steelers 43, Ravens 23
Week 12: Ravens 34, Saints 27
Week 13: Saints 35, Steelers 32

18. Houston Texans [20] — On college football's rivalry weekend, the Texans won the Oilers Bowl, defeating the team that moved from Houston almost 20 years ago. Ryan Fitzpatrick, benched less than a month ago, returned in place of the injured Ryan Mallett and promptly passed for 358 yards, 6 TDs, and a 147.5 passer rating. DeAndre Hopkins caught all nine of his targets, for 238 yards and 2 TDs. J.J. Watt had six hits on the quarterback, including two sacks.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers [11] — Most passing TDs allowed in a game since Chuck Noll was the head coach. It was a bad weekend for their elder statesmen on defense. Ike Taylor got burned, and Brett Keisel suffered a triceps injury that will end his season and probably his career.

20. San Francisco 49ers [16] — The last time they won by more than six was October 13th, Week 6. Since then, they've faced four teams with losing records, and couldn't really put any of them away.

21. Atlanta Falcons [22] — They're 3-1 since the bye, and their last two losses were by a combined three points. The NFC South probably comes down to their Week 16 matchup at New Orleans.

22. Cleveland Browns [21] — Johnny Manziel played! He scored a touchdown and sort of didn't commit any turnovers. Speaking of which, I saw someone call Brian Hoyer a turnover machine. That was true the last two games, when he threw 5 interceptions. But that equaled Hoyer's total of five INTs in the first 10 games combined, when Hoyer ranked fifth among full-time starters in INT% (1.5%), well ahead of Peyton Manning (2.2%), Tony Romo (2.2), Andrew Luck (2.3), Drew Brees (2.4), Philip Rivers (2.4), and Nick Foles (3.2), among others. Hoyer's not an exciting quarterback, but characterizing him as a turnover machine is inaccurate and unfair.

23. Minnesota Vikings [23] — Scored on two blocked punts this week. The Vikings have three wins in their last five games, and their last three losses were by a combined 12 points.

24. New York Jets [25] — Jon Gruden: "The Jets are doing everything they can to lose this football game."

25. Chicago Bears [24] — Lance Briggs, battling a groin injury, was placed on injured reserve this week, ending his season and perhaps his career. It's been a great one, and I hope the excessive attention paid to pass-rushing outside linebackers won't keep Briggs out of Canton. He's had a Hall of Fame career.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Lovie Smith has a proven track record. He was 83-61 in Chicago, with three division titles in nine seasons. He was Coach of the Year in 2005, coached in the Super Bowl in 2006, went 29-19 his last three seasons. Lovie Smith is an above-average head coach. His team is 2-10 and has been outscored by 94 points this season. Maybe we were a little hard on Greg Schiano.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — Scored two defensive touchdowns in a game for the first time in franchise history, coming back from a 21-0 deficit to win 25-24. Blake Bortles took 7 sacks but had no turnovers and rushed for 68 yards.

28. New York Giants [28] — Seventh consecutive loss, the longest streak in the league. MLB's San Francisco Giants have won nine times since the New York Giants' last win. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won more recently than the football Giants.

29. Tennessee Titans [29] — Worst in the NFL in third down percentage (29%) and average time of possession (26:58). Rookie QB Zach Mettenberger left this week's game with a sprained throwing shoulder. Jake Locker replaced him, playing for the first time since Week 5, and was not sharp. It's not clear, at this writing, who will start next week.

30. Washington [27] — Three items:

1. Washington forced three first-half turnovers against Indianapolis and still went into the locker room down by double-digits, 21-10. That's almost inexplicable. DeSean Jackson left the game with a leg injury; Dianna Russini reports that "DeSean Jackson probably won't practice this week, but he should play on Sunday."

2. This was supposed to be Andrew Luck vs. RG3. Actually, thanks to the Trent Richardson trade, the top three draft picks from 2012 were all on hand for Sunday's game. Only one of them has worked out.

3. Something else that hasn't worked out: Jay Gruden. He inherited an offense with Robert Griffin, Alfred Morris, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garçon, Jordan Reed, and — other than right tackle — a pretty good offensive line. That explosive offense hasn't topped 30 points in a game since September 21st (with Kirk Cousins at QB). I can't remember ever seeing a quarterback regress with a new coach like RG3 and Gruden. General manager Sycophantic yes-man Empty suit Bruce Allen should punch himself in the head for recommending condoning that Daniel Snyder hire Gruden. It is apparent at this point that Gruden and Griffin were never a fit, and it's hard to believe that Allen and Gruden didn't know that 10 months ago.

31. Carolina Panthers [30] — Since their Week 6 tie with Cincinnati, they're 0-6, including losses to the Saints, Falcons, and Vikings. They lost those six games by a combined score of 174-87. Some of them, like Green Bay (38-17) and Philadelphia (45-21), were even worse than the score implies.

32. Oakland Raiders [31] — There have been six 50-point shutout losses since the 1970 NFL/AFL Merger:

Nov 1972: Dolphins 52, Patriots 0
Dec 1976: Rams 59, Falcons 0
Sep 1989: Browns 51, Steelers 0
Oct 2009: Patriots 59, Titans 0
Dec 2012: Seahawks 58, Cardinals 0
Nov 2014: Rams 52, Raiders 0

Worst losses in Raider history, by point differential:

1. Nov 2014: Rams 52, Raiders 0
2. Jan 1991: Bills 51, Raiders 3
3. Sep 1961: Chargers 44, Raiders 0
4. Dec 2007: Jaguars 49, Raiders 11
5. Oct 2009: Jets 38, Raiders 0

This was a historic loss, and arguably the single lowest point in the 55-year history of a once-proud franchise.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:30 PM | Comments (0)

December 1, 2014

Eyes Turn to Waco For Last Weekend

Three spots in the inaugural College Football Playoff seem locked up.

Alabama, who enacted revenge on Auburn, has Missouri standing in their way of a trip to New Orleans.

Oregon can gain revenge on Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. If the Ducks win, they're headed south to Pasadena for a semifinal.

Florida State, who survived a massive scare from the Gators, has a tough game with a surging Georgia Tech team. Win, and they're headed for a showdown with Oregon.

That leaves one spot.

There's no question that spot should be decided in Waco, Texas. It's why College GameDay is headed there this weekend. Baylor's performance against Bill Snyder's Kansas State Wildcats should determine whether they should gain that final spot, or rather it go to the TCU Horned Frogs.

And if Alabama, Oregon or Florida State slip up, Baylor AND TCU should get in.

I know there is a major push from the folks in the Big Ten to get Ohio State in the playoff. They've certainly pushed them into the conversation. And, with just one loss, the Buckeyes seem worthy of being at least considered for one of the coveted playoff spots.

The problem? Who you lose to should count for something. And Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech is bad. Really bad. Epically bad.

Virginia Tech finished 6-6 on the year, so it's not like the Buckeyes lost to the worst team in the FBS. It was however, a worse opponent to lose to than TCU's loss (Baylor) and Baylor's loss (West Virginia). And if you had witnessed the recent matchup between the Hokies and Wake Forest, that game alone should tell you how bad losing to Virginia Tech is for Ohio State. Wake Forest and Virginia Tech went scoreless for all of regulation, with the Demon Deacons pulling out a 6-3 win in double overtime.

It was ugly. It was painfully tough for even the best of football fans to watch. And it gives plenty of ammunition to those who would favor either Baylor or TCU over the Buckeyes. Losing to Virginia Tech, by 14, at home, is a miserable loss. There's really no other way to describe it.

The conference slate hasn't done Ohio State many favors either. Amidst all the media hype for the Buckeyes is the fact that, for the first three weeks, the Big Ten was just plain awful. Are the memories of CFP committee members short enough to forget September?

Baylor lost to a 7-5 West Virginia squad. It's not a great loss but at least it was on the road in a hostile, couch-burning environment. Their non-conference slate was an absolute joke, which the CFP committee is letting them know by placing TCU ahead of the Bears. Baylor beat TCU with a fantastic fourth quarter comeback, which still gives them an edge on the Horned Frogs.

Make no doubt, head-to-head has to be placed ahead of schedule strength. TCU has definitely played the better non-conference slate, including a stellar win over a good Minnesota team that furthers their case to go ahead of Ohio State. However, the Frogs had a big lead in Waco and lost the game. Baylor won on the field. The integrity of the CFP committee is at stake with this decision: you have to give credit to what happens on the field over all other intangibles.

TCU's loss to Baylor is the "best loss," so to say, of any of the one loss teams, though it puts TCU in the ugly position of being a conference co-champion with a team that beat them on the field. Right now, TCU's great win over Texas, coupled with Baylor's almost collapse against Texas Tech, gives TCU a legitimate push for the fourth spot. However, given the Big 12 has been stronger than the Big 10 and Ohio State's loss to the Hokies is the worst of one-loss teams, if Baylor beats Kansas State handily, they should get the fourth spot.

And Ohio State fans should be wearing a lot of Missouri, Iowa State and K-State gear this weekend. It should take that kind of sweep to get the Buckeyes in, if the CFP committee calls it honest.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 12:08 PM | Comments (0)

Gil Hodges Belongs in Cooperstown

When Jim Bouton edited a volume of writings about baseball managers, I Managed Good But Boy, Did They Play Bad, in 1973, he included a photograph of Gil Hodges taken at a supermarket aisle. The caption: "Gil Hodges really was like this. The kind of man who would pick up groceries for his wife on his way home from the ball park."

That's one testament to Hodges's overall decency, but it's not necessarily the reason you consider a man for the Hall of Fame even if character does count to a particular extent. Come December 7, the Golden Era Committee will convene during baseball's winter meetings in San Diego. Their mission: vote on Hall of Famers whose playing careers occurred between 1947 and 1972, or on executives whose impact was in the same time frame.

They have ten candidates this year — nine players, plus one executive. Of the 10, Hodges has maybe the most unique case.

If the Golden Era Committee's job is to measure a candidate in the context of his actual time, Hodges measures up considerably, if peculiarly. In an era that didn't produce genuinely great first basemen overall, Hodges was a genuinely great first baseman. As if to suggest that having been one of the Boys of Summer Dodgers grants a penchant for peculiar achievements, Hodges went on to become the first expansion-team manager to win a World Series.

Not just any old expansion team. Hodges just had to manage the once-absurdist New York Mets to a staggering Series upset in 1969. The quietest Dodger of them all just had to lead a team who once led the league in comic losing to a five-game Series triumph that included four straight wins after a Game 1 loss. It was like Edward R. Murrow turning vaudeville into newsmen.

But we're getting a little ahead of ourselves. It's been 51 years since Hodges played a major league game. (Knee injuries kept him to sparing 1962-63 play with the expansion Mets.) Thanks to Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, who's performed the heavy labour, we can isolate just how great a player Hodges actually was despite the time that's passed.

* He is one of only two National League first basemen, ever, to produce seven straight seasons hitting 23 home runs or more and driving in 100 runs or more. He holds hands with Albert Pujols in that regard. It took 38 years for the National League to find a first baseman who could and would have seven straight such seasons. (Lou Gehrig owns the American League honors with 12 straight.)

* Among major league first basemen Hodges led the Show in runs created, total bases, OPS, times on base, home runs, runs batted in, and extra base hits, from 1948 through 1959.

* In the same period, Hodges was second among position players in home runs (his teammate Duke Snider was the leader), second in runs batted in (Yogi Berra and Stan Musial sit tied ahead of him), fourth in runs created (behind Snider, Musial, and Ted Williams), and third in total bases, runs produced, and extra base hits. (Behind Snider and Musial, again.)

* Hodges' teams won seven pennants and two World Series (including one in Brooklyn), and you could actually make the argument that, if relief pitcher Larry Sherry hadn't shone the way he had in the 1959 Series, Hodges and second baseman Charlie Neal might have shared Series MVP honors if Neal didn't win them by a slim margin.

* Verducci notes Hodges having played the most World Series games at first base in major league history. He went to as many Series as Gehrig did (seven), but Gehrig played in five four-game sweeps and one five-game Series. It's as often as not a matter of circumstance how many Series games you get to play, but Hodges playing first base in 39 World Series games is a remarkable achievement by any definition.

(In case you were curious, Yogi Berra is the all-time leader with 75 games played. The only non-Yankee to play 50 or more is Frankie Frisch; the only other non-Yankee to play 40 or more is Pee Wee Reese.)

* Hodges is still the only player in World Series history to drive in multiple runs in a Game 7 and have those the only runs his team scored in the game: it was 1955, and the Dodgers won the game 2-0, clinching the Series behind Johnny Podres's stellar pitching. (And, with a little help from Sandy Amoros's staggering sixth inning, left-field line catch off Yogi Berra's opposite-field drive — which turned into a double play when Hodges caught Reese's relay to double up Gil McDougald.)

* He's also the only man in major league history to hit 370 home runs lifetime and become a World Series-winning manager. (Rogers Hornsby with 301 is a distant second, but Hornsby won a Series as a player-manager; Hodges is the only man in this category to hit for that kind of power and manage a Series winner after his playing days ended.)

You might also note Hodges won the first three Gold Gloves at first base and might have one three more, at least, if the Gloves had been awarded prior to 1957.

And to those who might think he got a little extra help hitting in a bandbox home park (Ebbets Field) for long enough, or in a park with a super-short left field porch (the ridiculous Los Angeles Coliseum period), be advised that Hodges was, essentially, the same hitter on the road that he was at home; he actually has a few more hits (including extra base hits) on the road and his road batting average is six points higher than his home average.

Now, about that Series triumph. If you're my age, you might remember Hodges sitting in his office, after the Miracle Mets finished the job, asked to explain how his charges brought it off against the heavily-favored Orioles, then spreading his hands and grinning before saying, "can't be done."

Actually, it can be done. And not just by way of how Hodges out-thought Earl Weaver. All season long, Hodges developed deft positional platoons and provided a model for handling young pitching. He kept his position players fresh and at good advantage; he went to a five-man rotation that included rotating his swing men as often as not.

He got a Cy Young season out of his future Hall of Famer Tom Seaver, key pitching from Jerry Koosman and veteran Don Cardwell, solid stretch drive pitching from rookie Gary Gentry, and adroit bullpen work from Ron Taylor, Tug McGraw, Calvin Koonce, and a swift but wild kid named Nolan Ryan. He got a career year from his left fielder Cleon Jones, staggering defense from his position players, and veteran clubhouse leadership from first baseman Donn Clendenon and third baseman Ed Charles.

It helped him manage the 1969 Mets to a 27-game improvement over 1968. His adroit managing made sure his starting pitchers got extra rest, his bullpen never lacked for a fresh arm, and his position players were well prepared for a postseason once thought somewhere between impossible and a rubber room candidacy.

And it made the Mets pennant competitive until Hodges' untimely death in spring 1972 of a second heart attack. Essentially, Yogi Berra, his successor, got an unlikely 1973 pennant out of a Hodges team.

(Come to think of it, Hodges's first managing job after ending his playing career was an expansion team, too. He took over the Washington Senators for 1963. Hodges' Senators were never truly pennant competitive, but he did manage them to improved finishes each season, before he went to the Mets in a deal that brought the Senators a non-descript left-handed pitcher. Hodges just might have planted the seed that became the surprise 1969 American League East contenders under Ted Williams. Might.)

You may care to note that Hodges has actually come closer to making the Hall of Fame without getting in than just about any other man. Verducci has:

* He has the most total votes of any man not elected to the Hall.

* In fifteen different Baseball Writers Association of America votes, Hodges got more votes without getting in than 27 men who did get in.

* Hodges almost got in on a Veterans Committee vote in 1993. That year's committee chairman, Ted Williams, disallowed Roy Campanella's vote when Campanella was hospitalized and unable to attend the vote in person. (Three months later, alas, Campanella died.)

* When the Veterans Committee was remade/remodeled for 2003, 2005, and 2007 elections, Hodges got the most votes of any player not picked in those elections and even out-polled eventual inductee Joe Gordon by a whopping 108 votes.

I've been on the fence about Hodges for many years, but I've always said I could be persuaded either way with the right evidence. He has this much in common with Dale Murphy, who isn't going to be a Hall of Famer barring any future Veterans Committee or offshoot vote: if all you needed was character, Hodges would have gone in in a walk long ago.

It only begins with his World War II service, earning a Bronze Star as a Marine seeing Pacific theater action in 1944-45. Hodges was so decent a man that, when he hit a ferocious batting slump beginning in the 1952 World Series and carrying into the 1953 season, including a benching by manager Charlie Dressen, that all of Brooklyn took up prayers for Hodges, a practicing Catholic — even churches where he didn't worship, Catholic or otherwise.

"The thing that most people hear about that one is that a priest stood in a Brooklyn pulpit that Sunday and said, 'It's too hot for a sermon. Just go home and say a prayer for Gil Hodges.' Well, I know that I'll never forget that, but also I won't forget the hundreds of people who sent me letters, telegrams, and postcards during that World Series," Hodges would remember. "There wasn't a single nasty message. Everybody tried to say something nice. It had a tremendous effect on my morale, if not my batting average. Remember that in 1952, the Dodgers had never won a World Series. A couple of base hits by me in the right spot might have changed all that."

When managing the Senators before returning to the Mets, Hodges' pitchers included Ryne Duren, once the formidable Yankee closer now near the end of his career but early enough in his life as an alcoholic. In 1965, Duren sank into a depression that culminated in walking onto a bridge intending to jump to his death. Hodges went out to talk the pitcher out of it.

But you don't become a Hall of Famer simply because you're a decent guy. You become a Hall of Famer by way of what you did on the field, in the dugout, or both. If you look at Hodges as a peak value candidate he doesn't have a case, but if you look at his career value, he has one. He lacks black ink almost completely as a hitter but has a considerable amount as a defender. He's actually one of those players whose greatness is in his career consistencies more than it is in any peak period.

There are a considerable number of career-value Hall of Famers in hand with a considerable number of peak value Hall of Famers. Almost none of them combined stellar playing careers with a World Series-winning managerial career. (Joe Torre had a career-value Hall of Fame case as a player, though you had to look deep to see it, before he made himself a Hall of Famer managing all those great Yankee teams.)

Is Hodges the absolute best of the 10 Golden Era Committee candidates who aren't in the Hall of Fame? Let's look quickly at the other candidates. First, the players:

Dick Allen — He has an overwhelming peak value case, but his career was compromised by issues Allen himself now admits he handled terribly. He's also compromised by the perception that he might have done as much to keep his teams from winning as to help them win because of how he handled those issues.

Ken Boyer — Arguably the best all-around third baseman in the National League before Ron Santo came into his own toward the end of Boyer's career. He doesn't have the power numbers that made contemporary Eddie Mathews a no-questions-asked pick, but he has a powerful career value case.

Jim Kaat — Bill James was right: re-arrange Kitty's best seasons and you'd have a Hall of Famer. Kaat's been hurt by having his best seasons when someone else was having an off-the-chart season. His career's a near-match to Robin Roberts, otherwise, even if Kaat didn't have Roberts' peak, even if Kaat (and anyone else) didn't give up half the home runs Roberts did.

Minnie Minoso — He was, essentially, Jackie Robinson ... if Robinson had been a black Cuban and an outfielder who got caught stealing a couple of extra times. The color line delayed Minoso's entry into the Show and, like Robinson, he made the most of what prime time he did get.

Tony Oliva — His knees killed his Hall case, basically. He probably needed two or even three more seasons at or knocking on the door of his prime period to make the case, but he couldn't convince his knees to quit barking otherwise.

Billy Pierce — A terrific pitcher but not to the level of a Hall of Famer. Pierce was also hurt by the perception that he didn't know how to win unless his best fastball was working.

Luis Tiant — On career value, El Tiante has something close to a career-value Hall of Fame case. But close may not be quite enough.

Maury Wills — Bust a long-revered single-season record by a long-gone immortal and you'll be overrated in the public eye. Just ask Roger Maris, who also wasn't a Hall of Famer (his health probably kept him from making a bona fide case), but was 10 times the player Wills was when healthy. Why is Wills even in the Hall of Fame conversation, then? Because he did bust Ty Cobb's single-season stolen base record, and because people remember him.

Now, the executive:

Bob Howsam — He finished building what became the Big Red Machine. But he was also known as a hard-liner who went to rather grotesque lengths to suppress players when he ran both the Reds and, previously, the Cardinals. (Several members of the 1964 Cardinals' World Series champions eventually revealed Howsam sent just about the entire team contracts for 1965 that called for pay cuts.)

For whom would I vote if I had a vote? Easy enough, and in order — Gil Hodges, Minnie Minoso, and Ken Boyer.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:36 AM | Comments (1)