Relax, college football fans.
There's not going to be three teams from the SEC West in the College Football Playoff. There will be one, without question. But not three.
The revelation of the first CFP rankings really didn't say much. It did, however, coupled with this weekend's actions, throw a few tidbits of what could be in our direction.
Mississippi State and Florida State, having dodged major obstacles this past week, still control their own destiny. Jameis Winston or no Jameis Winston, it looks as if the Seminoles have a pretty clear path to the playoff. FSU plays three of their last four at home and would be a pretty solid favorite to take down Duke, Georgia Tech or anyone else in the Coastal Division.
The path for Dan Mullen's Bulldogs, however, is much more difficult. A showdown in Tuscaloosa with Nick Saban and the Tide awaits in two weeks; then two weeks later the battle for the Golden Egg with Ole Miss goes down in Oxford. Should MSU survive those games, they'll be the top seed heading to New Orleans. However, that's much easier said than done. Nick Saban, on the outside looking in, will have his team pumped, while Ole Miss will be dangerous even without Laquan Treadwell.
Say Alabama takes down Mississippi State. That would set up the Iron Bowl as the de facto championship of the SEC West yet again, provided Auburn beats Georgia (oh, the what ifs of the SEC). If the Tide win out, they're in the playoff. If MSU loses to 'Bama, yet takes down Ole Miss, chances still look good for the Bulldogs. If Auburn wins out, they'd be in as well, even if Mississippi State runs the table and wins the SEC. Being ranked third helped immensely for the Tigers. The fact Bill Snyder couldn't find a kicker in Manhattan when Auburn showed up helped immensely too.
Speaking of Kansas State, they're in good shape, but they need Auburn to keep winning. Their close battle helped vault Auburn into solid CFP position and if both teams win out, it might be what helps the Wildcats into that crucial fourth spot. TCU and Kansas State will play an elimination game this weekend. Should TCU win, expect Baylor's Art Briles to run it up on everyone he possibly can. TCU put 82 on Texas Tech? Baylor will aim for more. The Bears need style points to survive that West Virginia loss as Alabama, who beat the Mountaineers, has the better positioning. For Baylor to have a shot, they've got to win out, which won't be easy with Oklahoma and Kansas State on the schedule. They also have to hope Mississippi State or Auburn trip up the Tide.
So Florida State, and whoever survives the SEC West are likely locks. The Big 12 has some interesting candidates. However, if I had to guess the CFP's top four next Tuesday, I'd have Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, and Oregon. So, what about Oregon?
The Ducks survived the Stanford hurdle and have a nice shot to finish strong. Oregon needs to win their conference, but more so, they need the Pac-12 South to clear up and have a highly ranked division winner to make that title look better. A great candidate would be Arizona State, who still faces Notre Dame with the remainder of their conference slate. A convincing Sun Devil win over the Irish would be of massive aid to the Duck cause. Oregon's win over Michigan State pretty much took the Big Ten out of consideration; however, with the SEC West perched all over the top of college football, Florida State in cruise control and the Big 12 having several candidates, Oregon has to win games big from here on out to garner attention, help Marcus Mariota win the Heisman and coast into Pasadena.
So the first edition of the CFP poll provided few answers and kept the picture murky. This week's poll will do the same. There's a lot to be decided before the CFP committee has pressure taken to another level, so don't take things too seriously ... yet.
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