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November 27, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 13 (Pt. 2)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Washington @ Indianapolis (-10)

The Redskins lost 17-13 to the 49ers as Washington's passing game struggled. Robert Griffin threw for only 106 yards and no touchdowns and was sacked 5 times. Jay Gruden decided to bench Griffin for the Indy game, instead going with Colt McCoy.

"I think I gave Jay Gruden what he wanted," Griffin said. "A performance not worth talking about.

"Despite everything, I'm not losing confidence. In fact, I'm I am very confident. Confident that I've had two of the worst quarterback-friendly coaches in NFL history. Luckily, I've got Redskins owner Daniel Snyder on my side. Whenever Mr. Snyder wants to complain or get something off his chest, I'm always available to listen. You could say I'm his 'bitch.'"

The Colts lead the Texans by a game in the AFC South. Indy whipped the Jaguars 23-3 last week, led by T.Y. Hilton's 144 receiving yards, including a 73-yard bomb that he dedicated to his newborn daughter, born earlier that day.

"I promised her a touchdown," Hilton said, "and I delivered. It was probably the most emotional moment of my life, and is very mentally and physically taxing. I can't believe Antonio Cromartie went through this 12 times.

"You probably saw my touchdown celebration. I call it 'Cradling the Pigskin.' For those of you who don't play football and aren't fathers, you can 'Cradle the Pigskin' by gently holding a bag of pork rinds."

Colts win, 27-20.

Tennessee @ Houston (-6)

The new Houston franchise faces the old Houston franchise as the 5-6 Texans host the 2-9 Titans in an AFC South matchup. The Texans lost 22-13 to the Bengals last week, and trail the Colts by two games in the division.

"Ryan Mallett played is out for the season with an injured pectoral muscle," Bill O'Brien said. "He threw the ball 45 times last Sunday. That's a lot. Of those, 24 were incompletions. That's a lot, as well. I think it's safe to say he injured himself 'overthrowing.'"

Tennessee lost 43-24 in Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field, overpowered by a Philadelphia team that ran the ball at will on offense and forced three turnovers on defense.

"We're just not a very good team right now," Ken Whisenhunt said. "But that's life. All I can do is stare at the old Houston Oilers logo and say 'Oh well.'"

J.J. Watt sacks Zach Mettenberger twice and the Texans win, 26-14.

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-2½)

With record amounts of snow in Buffalo forcing them to play in Detroit, the Bills beat the Jets handily, 38-3. The Bills defense recorded seven sacks, bringing their league-leading total to 39.

"A home game in Detroit?" Doug Marrone said. "That makes about as much sense as a home game in Toronto.

"Jets quarterbacks are sitting ducks, similar to their coach, who's a lame duck.

"Buffalo was deluged by seven feet of snow a few weeks ago. But thanks to the hard work of stadium staff and willing volunteers, Ralph Wilson Stadium is ready for the Browns. Crews disposed of more white stuff than Michael Irvin and Lawrence Taylor combined. Those two were the hardest-working 'snow blowers' in the NFL."

Billy Cundiff's 37-yard field goal as time expired gave the Browns a 26-24 win over the Falcons in the Georgia Dome last week. Cleveland improved to 7-4 to remain ½–game behind the Bengals in the AFC North.

"Josh Gordon was a huge factor in his first game back," Brian Hoyer said. "He had 120 yards receiving. Previously, Josh was in NFL purgatory. But not any more. He went from 'In Hell' to 'Ex-Hell' faster than you can say 'CBA,' or 'THC,' or 'DUI.'

"They're calling this game the 'Lake Erie Bowl.' Interestingly enough, Gordon's favorite water bong was called 'Lake Irie.'"

Dan Carpenter kicks a 51-yard field goal with 16 seconds left in the game, and the Bills win, 23-20.

San Diego @ Baltimore (-5)

The Ravens ran through the Saints 34-27 on Monday night, improving to 7-4 on the year while dropping New Orleans to 4-7. Justin Forsett rushed for 182 yards and two touchdowns to lead Baltimore.

"The Saints defense is such that you can take the ball and 'Forsett' down their throat," John Harbaugh said. "Justin may very well be the future of the Ravens running attack. He's got unlimited potential; he has the talent to reach it. So Justin, as Casey Kasem liked to say, 'Keep reaching for the stars, and keep your feet on the ground.' See, even Kasem knew that elevators were bad news."

The Chargers turned back the visiting Rams 27-24 last week, salvaging the win on Marcus Gilchrist's interception of Shaun Hill deep in Chargers territory with seconds left in the fourth quarter. San Diego is 7-4, one game behind the Broncos in the AFC West.

"Our season has accepted Jesus Christ as its savior," Phillip Rivers said, "because that win 'saved' our season."

Joe Flacco throws for 2 touchdowns, one to Steve Smith, and the Ravens win, 27-19.

NY Giants @ Jacksonville (+3)

A week after throwing 5 interceptions, Eli Manning threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns with only one INT in a losing effort to the Cowboys. Two of Manning's TD's went to rookie Odell Beckham III, whose one-handed grab on his second score may have been the greatest catch in history.

"Odell caught that ball with just three fingers," Manning said. "That's two fewer fingers than Dallas' Joseph Randle's shopping discount.

"Odell elevated himself into the lore of memorable performances by Giants receivers. Where he goes from here is up to him. He can take his game to the next level, or take a bullet to the thigh. If we start calling him 'Plaxic-Odell,' we'll know he chose wrong."

Giants win, 24-20.

Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay (+4)

The Buccaneers lost 21-13 at Soldier Field in Lovie Smith's return to Chicago. Tampa is 2-9 in the NFC South.

"As homecomings go," Smith said, "I've had better. Now, it's back home to Tampa, where I started my coaching career. Unfortunately, we're 0-5 this year at Raymond James Stadium, so it certainly makes sense to call that field my stomping grounds."

The Bengals picked up a tough road win last week, beating the Texans 22-13 in Houston. A.J. Green caught 12 passes for 121 yards in the win, and the Cincy offense held the ball for over 39 minutes.

"Two of our playoff losses came to the Texans," Green said, "so it was a bit of redemption for Andy Dalton. Time of 'possession' aside, Andy exorcised some demons.

"We are getting healthy at just the right time. My toe is healed, and Gio Bernard is back at full strength. Plus, his University of North Carolina Tar Heels just became bowl-eligible. Gio, however, is still listed as 'probable.' His diploma, on the other hand, is still 'doubtful.'"

Cincinnati wins, 22-20.

Oakland @ St. Louis (-7)

The Raiders shocked the Chiefs, 24-20, last Thursday, winning for the first time this season. The win came on a night when several Raiders dignitaries gathered to celebrate Ray Guy's induction into the Hall of Fame.

"Ray spoke to the team before the locker room," Tony Sparano said, "and it meant a great deal to us. It's hard to explain the magnitude of the situation, but I'm sure, of all teams, the Rams have a similar idea of what it's like to have a Guy in the locker room."

The Rams lost a winnable game at San Diego, losing 27-24 to the Chargers. Shaun Hill's interception ended St. Louis' hopes of sending the game into overtime or winning it outright.

"Shaun just made a bad read," Jeff Fisher said. "I've urged Shaun that if he's in a situation like that, he needs to throw it away. I guess I should have specified the 'ball' and not the 'game.'"

St. Louis wins, 24-23.

New Orleans @ Pittsburgh (-3½)

The Steelers bye week was preceded by the release of running back LeGarrette Blount, who left the field early in the Steelers Week 11 win over the Titans on Monday night.

"Releasing Blount was a tough decision," Ben Roethlisberger said, "but we had to do it. We'd prefer Le'Veon Bell to not be under the influence of anything, especially Blount.

"Brees has an endorsement deal with Wranglers. And I'm a bit jealous. I'd like to publicly state that I want to 'get into' jeans, but my team of legal advisors said it's not a good idea."

The Saints fell to 4-7 after the Ravens physically dominated them 34-27 in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Monday night. Baltimore piled up 215 yards on the ground, including 182 and 2 scores from Justin Forsett.

"Our defense looked awful," Sean Payton said. "I believe it's time to bring out the brown paper sacks for Rob Ryan's crew, because they 'Ain't' 'S.'"

New Orleans rebounds and wins, 30-28.

Carolina @ Minnesota (-3)

Carolina's week 12 bye couldn't have come at a better time. The Panthers needed to regroup after five consecutive losses, and Cam Newton was able to rest his sore ankle for an extra week.

"It's time to bring out the gimp," Ron Rivera said. "If Cam doesn't play better, it may be time to take out the gimp.

"All three of our NFC South rivals lost last week. That just goes to show that we're at our best when we don't play."

The Vikings gave the Packers a test but eventually lost 24-21 and dropped to 4-7 in the NFC North.

"The good news is we held the Packers under 50," Mike Zimmer said. "The bad news is that Adrian Peterson took to Twitter to compare his case to that of Ferguson, Missouri. His situation should not be compared to the Ferguson issue. A,P. is a 'MO. Faux' who made a serious 'MO. Faux Pas.'"

Vikings win 27-22.

Arizona @ Atlanta (+2)

The Falcons lost at home 26-24 to the Browns and fell out of first in the NFC South. Atlanta is 4-7, one game behind the Saints.

"Maybe is shouldn't have called that final timeout," Mike Smith. "That allowed the Browns plenty of time to get in field goal position. It's safe to say I should brush up on my time management skills. Arthur Blank insinuated I should brush up on my free time management skills."

The Cardinals lost for only the second time, losing 19-3 to the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. At 9-2, Arizona still holds a two-game lead over the 49ers and Seahawks.

"We'll put that behind us," Bruce Arians said, "and do something our offense couldn't in Seattle — move on."

Arizona wins, 30-20.

New England @ Green Bay (-3)

The Packers host the Patriots in a battle of the NFL's two best quarterbacks without neck fusion surgery. The Pats overwhelmed the visiting Lions, 34-9, last week. Jonas Gray, who rushed for 201 yards in Week 11, didn't play a snap after arriving late for practice.

"LeGarrette Blount smokes pot and leaves the field early and gets to play," Bill Belichick said. "Jonas is a few minutes late and sits. That makes no sense, but here's what does: Gray and Blount will make a great rushing duo, collectively known as the 'Double Standard.'

"My stance on tardiness is quite clear. There are no exceptions. It's a black and white issue. The only 'Shades of Gray' I possess are in my wardrobe and my library."

The Packers won a tough 24-21 road decision over the Vikings. Eddy Lacy ran for 125 yards and a touchdown and also added a receiving TD.

"Eddy is a beast," Aaron Rodgers said. "He's listed at 230 pounds, which is much trimmer than when he showed up at camp as a rookie in 2013. And we let him know it. For someone who played at the University of Alabama, it's upsetting when teammates look at your midsection and say 'Rolls Tide.'"

New England wins, 26-24.

Denver @ Kansas City (+1½)

After their big loss to the Raiders last Thursday, the 7-4 Chiefs trail the 8-3 Broncos by a game in the AFC West. Denver beat K.C. 24-17 in Week 2, so Sunday's game at Arrowhead Stadium is a must-win.

"The forecast for Sunday night is chilly," Andy Reid said. "We're hoping the temperature puts a freeze on that wet noodle Peyton Manning calls an arm, because our defense might not be able to."

The Broncos overcame a 28-17 deficit to the visiting Dolphins before a fourth quarter explosion gave Denver a 39-36 win.

"C.J. Anderson rushed for 167 yards against a solid Miami defense," Peyton Manning said. "We have to continue to establish the run, because that opens up our vertical passing game. Of all the things I've done that Alex Smith hasn't, one is throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. Smith makes up for it with superior running ability. You're more likely to find Smith four yards downfield than one of his receivers."

The Broncos shake off a slow start, and Manning finds Julius Thomas for a short TD pass to seal the win late in the fourth quarter.

Denver wins, 27-24.

Miami @ NY Jets (+5½)

The Jets were destroyed 38-3 to the Bills in Detroit last Monday night. Michael Vick and Geno Smith were sacked a combined 7 times by the Bills defense.

"This year's Jets quarterbacking has been God-awful," Rex Ryan said, "and has made former Jet Vinny Testaverde seem like a god.

The Dolphins lost a tough 39-36 decision to the Broncos in Denver last week, falling to 6-5 games behind the 9-2 Patriots.

"I questioned Ryan Tannehill's ability as a starter back in February," Joe Philbin said. "I didn't bench, him and he's been on a tear since then. That's in stark contrast to Jay Gruden's handling of Robert Griffin III. Poor RG3. Forget John Gruden, Griffin's been through the 'Gruden Grinder' from Jay.

"If I were Griffin, I'd be very unhappy. In fact, I'd be on the warpath. I realize that's a poor choice of words, but 'poor choice of words' has been an issue in D.C. for a long time now. Go Redskins! And go Robert Griffin (somewhere else)!"

Tannehill passes for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Dolphins pull away late to win, 27-13.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:56 PM | Comments (0)

November 26, 2014

Sports Central 2014 Pro Bowl Selections

Pro Bowl voting has been open for over a month, but now every team has played the same number of games. Here's a look at my ballot, continuing last year's "unconferenced" format. If you'd like to vote along as you read, you can do so here.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (GB), Peyton Manning (DEN), Andrew Luck (IND), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Tom Brady (NE), Drew Brees (NO)

The first five spots seem clear to me; those guys have been excellent, and I don't know how you could complete a ballot without them. But for that sixth vote, there are a number of different directions you could go.

If you want a big name — a guy with a track record — or you're mostly interested in volume, you take Brees. He's third in the NFL in passing yardage (3,491) and has a 98.1 passer rating. If you're more interested in efficiency, or you want a QB who's really shown guts this season, it has to be Tony Romo (DAL). He's led a couple of very clutch comebacks, he's played with fractures in his back, and he has a passer rating of 111.4. If you're willing to forgive one bad game, vote for Philip Rivers (SD). He was the front-runner for NFL MVP after five weeks. Throw out his horrific game against the Dolphins — the loss only counts once — and he's certainly been one of the top six QBs this season. If you just want the most talented guy out there, vote for Russell Wilson (SEA). He sometimes seems to lose focus, and his numbers aren't huge (because he doesn't have any top receivers and because Marshawn Lynch gets a lot of the red zone work), but Wilson is a great player. He's got a 93.0 passer rating and he's 15th in rushing yardage. That's a nightmare combination for defenses.

All of those approaches are valid; any of those players is a reasonable choice. Brees is smart and accurate, and he nearly dragged the Saints to victory on Monday night — even when the team around him isn't performing well, Brees gives them a chance to win. That's my vote, but it's really close.

Running Back

DeMarco Murray (DAL), Le'Veon Bell (PIT), Matt Forte (CHI), Marshawn Lynch (SEA), Jamaal Charles (KC), Justin Forsett (BAL)

Again, the first four choices here seem pretty obvious. But that left three players in contention for the last two votes: Charles, Forsett, and Arian Foster (HOU). Fine players like Eddie Lacy (GB) and Alfred Morris (WAS) didn't even draw serious consideration, just because the competition was so fierce.

The tie-breaker here is injury. Charles missed a couple games earlier in the season, but he's been back in top form; there's not a more dangerous runner in the league. Foster has missed two games, as well, and he might miss more before he returns. Arian Foster is a great running back, but he has trouble staying healthy at this point. Forsett is third in the NFL in rushing and leads all running backs in average per attempt (5.8), with a minimum of 50 carries. I wouldn't blame anyone voting for Foster, but I find his "maybe" less compelling than what we know to expect from Charles and Forsett.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown (PIT), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), Jordy Nelson (GB), Emmanuel Sanders (DEN), T.Y. Hilton (IND), Julio Jones (ATL), Jeremy Maclin (PHI), Randall Cobb (GB)

Every ballot should include Brown, Thomas, and Nelson. But after that, it's a mess, with lots of qualified candidates, players who deserve Pro Bowl recognition. In order of receiving yardage, the players I hated to leave off were: Golden Tate (DET), Dez Bryant (DAL), DeSean Jackson (WAS), Mike Evans (TB), Anquan Boldin (SF), Steve Smith (BAL), Alshon Jeffery (CHI), and Kelvin Benjamin (CAR).

The hardest cuts were probably Bryant and Jackson. Dez has really reached his potential this year. He's a big-play threat and a weapon in the red zone. He deserves to go to the Pro Bowl. DeSean Jackson looks better than ever; this might be the best season of his career. He is dynamic, explosive, an 80-yard touchdown waiting to happen. Jackson has caught 40-yard passes from three different QBs this season, and with more consistent quarterback play, he'd have 1,000 yards already. With a QB like Aaron Rodgers, he'd have 1,200 yards and 15 TDs, because at least once a game, Jackson gets open downfield where an accurate throw would be a touchdown. Jackson deserves to go to the Pro Bowl. But so do the eight players I chose, and Maclin and Cobb edged Bryant and Jackson for the last two places on my ballot. Reasonable people can disagree about the last four or five spots at this position.

Fullback

Kyle Juszczyk (BAL), Darrel Young (WAS)

This position is so hard to vote for, because most of these guys get very limited playing time. Juszczyk and Young get the most; they're among the very few fullbacks who start a majority of their team's games. Juszczyk has over 100 rushing yards, and he clears the path for RB Justin Forsett, a career journeyman who is wildly exceeding expectations. Young has blocked effectively for Alfred Morris, and also has 3 TDs, for what that's worth. Marcel Reece (OAK) had a big performance on Thursday Night Football, and I'm happy he's gotten some recognition the last couple of years, because I've been a Reece fan for a long time, but Reece did his damage playing halfback. That's not really what this position is on the ballot for. But go ahead and vote for him if you want, because the fullback position is irrelevant in today's NFL. Steve Smith and DeSean Jackson are 10 times more important to their teams than Juszczyk and Young.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski (NE), Jimmy Graham (NO), Greg Olsen (CAR), Julius Thomas (DEN)

Gronkowski is the best tight end in the NFL, and it isn't close. This might actually be the easiest offensive position to vote for: Gronk, Graham, and Thomas are established stars having good seasons, and it's a break-out year for Olsen. He's always been a good receiver, but this season he's become an impact player, a weapon, and he's improved as a blocker.

The questionable pick is Thomas, who leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns (12) but is about 15th in yards, and hasn't been healthy or productive for the last month. But who would you vote for instead? Delanie Walker (TEN)? Martellus Bennett (CHI)? Antonio Gates (SD) and Heath Miller (PIT)? Nice enough players, but none have the same impact as Julius Thomas. He's a playmaker, a difference-maker, a factor in the defensive gameplan.

Offensive Tackle

Jason Peters (PHI), Tyron Smith (DAL), Joe Thomas (CLE), Duane Brown (HOU), Joe Staley (SF), Andrew Whitworth (CIN)

Disclaimer at all the offensive line positions: I've seen about 70 games this season. That's roughly 4.5 per team, except it's not evenly distributed. There are some teams I've only seen once or twice, and that's really not enough to fairly judge players at a position which doesn't produce any stats. I'll have more faith in my year-end All-Pro selections, and I welcome feedback from knowledgeable readers if there are standouts I'm missing or mediocre players I'm overrating because I saw them on a good day.

I voted for a bunch of left tackles. Most teams still put their best offensive lineman there, and those are the guys who impress me this year. I know some analysts believe omitting right tackles (and guards) is a crime against humanity, a denial of all that is fine and good in the world. If you want to try your luck with a true RT, I'll swing one of my guys over to the right side and we'll see who does better.

Peters looks healthy again. He was very good last season; he's great this year. Smith, Thomas, and Brown were also fairly easy calls. I have come to accept that no one else thinks Joe Staley is as good as I do, but he plays well whenever I see him. Whitworth gets the sixth spot because there's no one else I'm enthusiastic about. If you want a right tackle, the ones who interest me are Doug Free (DAL), Marcus Gilbert (PIT), and Sebastian Vollmer (NE). Free missed three games, and the Cowboys lost two of them. They're 7-1 when he plays.

Other tackles I might consider at the end of the season include: Ryan Clady (DEN), Donald Penn (OAK), Nate Solder (NE), and Trent Williams (WAS). I've only seen one Rams game since Greg Robinson (STL) became a starter, but he looked good, and the team has played its best football with Robinson in the lineup.

Offensive Guard

Josh Sitton (GB), Zack Martin (DAL), Marshal Yanda (BAL), Justin Blalock (ATL), David DeCastro (PIT), Dan Connolly (NE)

Early in the season, I was sure DeCastro would be my top guard, but he's slipped. Sitton has excelled even while playing through injury, while the rookie Martin has emerged as the missing piece in the Cowboys' offensive line. Closest calls: Orlando Franklin (DEN) and Kelechi Osemele (BAL). Larry Warford (DET) is still dealing with a knee injury; he's missed a couple weeks and could miss a couple more.

I'd have more to say about this, except that I'm really disappointed with the level of interior line play in the NFL this season. None of these guys is Will Shields or Larry Allen, except maybe a healthy Sitton, or Martin a couple years down the road.

Center

Rodney Hudson (KC), Travis Frederick (DAL), Manuel Ramirez (DEN), Nick Mangold (NYJ)

It's sort of tough to evaluate the Dallas offensive line; when everyone is playing at a high level, sometimes the sum of their efforts makes individual linemen look better than they really are. Frederick, holding down the middle, is obviously in position to benefit from the fine play of his teammates. But best I can tell, he's having another strong season. I take this as a personal affront, by the way, vengeance for my writing when he was drafted that Frederick had "limited upside."

I've always thought Maurkice Pouncey (PIT) was a little overrated, but he's having a good season. Jason Kelce (PHI) would likely make my ballot, except that he missed four games with an injury. Kory Lichtensteiger (WAS) and Corey Linsley (GB) are also playing well; more guys named Cory should try playing center. It makes sense that Manny Ramirez is actually named Manuel, but the Pro Bowl ballot is the first time I've ever known him to be called that way.

Defensive End

J.J. Watt (HOU), Mario Williams (BUF), Cameron Wake (MIA), Calais Campbell (ARI), Everson Griffen (MIN), Justin Smith (SF)

As usual, there is an embarrassment of riches at this position, and a number of good players who didn't make my top six. The Pro Bowl ballot lists 56 players at this position, including some 3-4 DEs you might think of more as defensive tackles.

I expect there's broad agreement about the three Ws, so let's address Campbell, Griffen, and Smith. Campbell missed two games after that controversial low block by Julius Thomas, and since returning, he has five sacks in five games; no defensive lineman, including Watt, has been more productive over the last month. The 9-2 Cardinals do not have a great offense — they're succeeding with defense, and that defense is built around Campbell. Griffen has nine sacks and he was NFC Defensive Player of the Month for October, but this is his fifth year in the league and his first in the spotlight. Griffen's not just a pass rusher; he's good playing the run, as well. You know about Justin Smith, of course, but it's tough to get votes at a position filled with edge rushers. Smith moves around on the line, stunts a lot, and his role is a little different. But he's very tough to block, and he's the heart of one of the best defenses in the NFL.

No disrespect intended to other defensive ends playing well this season, like Ezekiel Ansah (DET), Jerry Hughes (BUF), Rob Ninkovich (NE), Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG), Robert Quinn (STL), and DeMarcus Ware (DEN).

Defensive Tackle

Marcell Dareus (BUF), Gerald McCoy (TB), Ndamukong Suh (DET), Dontari Poe (KC), Aaron Donald (STL), Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ)

Dareus has 10 sacks, which is ridiculous, but he's not just recklessly rushing upfield. Dareus hustles, he's surprisingly quick, and he plays the run as well as any DT I've seen this year. McCoy and Suh could make a dozen Pro Bowls each if they stay healthy. They are special players, incredibly disruptive. Poe is the key to Kansas City's defense. He makes plays and rarely gets beat, but he also eats double-teams and almost never subs out.

Aaron Donald didn't start until Week 5, but he's a freak athlete, tied with J.J. Watt and Ryan Kerrigan as the league leader in tackles for loss (15), and Robert Quinn's season has taken off with Donald getting regular playing time. Wilkerson and his teammate Sheldon Richardson (NYJ) are both having fine seasons, but I like Wilkerson a little better. I also considered Jurrell Casey (TEN), Sen'Derrick Marks (JAC), Haloti Ngata (BAL), and Kyle Williams (BUF). Casey and safety Michael Griffin are the only real players on Tennessee's awful defense. Marks has five sacks, 10 TFL, and 3 pass deflections. Ngata, back in top form the last season and a half, leads all DTs with 7 pass deflections. Williams has 4 sacks and an interception, but even more than that, he eats blocks and creates opportunities for teammates like Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes, and Marcell Dareus. Those guys wouldn't be having the same season without him.

Inside Linebacker

C.J. Mosley (BAL), Luke Kuechly (CAR), Chris Borland (SF), Keenan Robinson (WAS)

How weak are the choices for ILB in 2014? This is the worst season of Kuechly's pro career, and it's the first time I've picked him for the Pro Bowl. I've been calling Kuechly overrated all season, and would love to back that up by not voting for him, but there simply aren't a lot of standout inside linebackers this year. NaVorro Bowman missed the first half of the season. Karlos Dansby (CLE) will miss the second half of the season. Derrick Johnson, Daryl Washington, and Sean Lee are missing the whole season. Paul Posluszny and DeMeco Ryans and Patrick Willis are out. Who's really left?

Kuechly is not the second coming of Brian Urlacher. He doesn't have good instincts for where the ball is going, and he gets out of position too often. But he's quick and aggressive and he makes plays. With so many of the established stars out of action, I've got Kuechly joined by two rookies, Borland and Mosley, plus Robinson, who never started a game before this season. Mosley was a star at Alabama, a first-round draft pick. He's particularly distinguished himself in coverage, with 7 passes defensed, including 2 INTs. Borland is an aggressive run-stopper who makes plays in the backfield. He didn't start until Week 7, when he took over for Patrick Willis with a minimum of fanfare, but he's played so well that many people now see Willis as expendable.

Robinson is my sleeper, and I will die of shock if he makes the Pro Bowl this year. But Robinson is very fast and exceptionally instinctive; like all great LBs, he seems to have a sense for where the ball is going, and he gets there before the offense is ready for him. He has a good sense of space, takes smart routes to the ball. Robinson has played well already, and he's improving as the season continues. I also like some of the old standbys, like D'Qwell Jackson (IND), Daryl Smith (BAL), and Lawrence Timmons (PIT), but in a year with no great ILBs, it feels right to recognize the next generation of stud ILBs.

Outside Linebacker

DeAndre Levy (DET), Justin Houston (KC), Lavonte David (TB), Julius Peppers (GB), Von Miller (DEN), Connor Barwin (PHI)

This part of the ballot presents the opposite problem we had at ILB: there are lots of good candidates. I left off a number of players I would have been happy to vote for, but the two hardest cuts were Elvis Dumervil (BAL) and Clay Matthews (GB). We'll get back to them in a moment.

Outside linebackers are tough to compare, because there really are two distinct positions: 3-4 pass rushers and 4-3 space players. In the latter category, Levy and David are musts. They're tied for the NFL lead, with 81 tackles, including double-digits behind the line of scrimmage. If you want another one of the space guys, you'd probably go for Brandon Marshall (DEN) or Alec Ogletree (STL).

Houston leads the NFL in sacks (13), trailed closely by Barwin and Dumervil (12.5 each). Dumervil, a converted DE, is less effective playing the run than Houston and Barwin, and they've combined for 7 pass deflections, compared to Dumervil's zero. It wouldn't be crazy at all to vote for him, but I think Houston and Barwin are better overall. Miller has slowed down, with only 1 sack in the last four games, but he began the season on fire, and he's a phenomenal talent. Julius Peppers, in his first season playing LB, has 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, 2 interceptions, over 100 return yards, and 2 TDs. Peppers remains an athletic marvel, and he's got a ton of impact plays.

Unfortunately, that means he edged out his teammate Matthews, who has played some ILB — just because the Packers are weak at that position, and it's where they need him — and played well there. Matthews is one of those players the opponent has to account for. He's an impact player at any position. This year, he has 4.5 sacks, 8 TFL, 6 PD, 2 forced fumbles, and an INT. If you haven't been paying attention, you might think it's an off year because of the low sack total, but Matthews remains a disruptive defensive presence.

Cornerback

Brent Grimes (MIA), Vontae Davis (IND), Darrelle Revis (NE), Richard Sherman (SEA), Aqib Talib (DEN), Joe Haden (CLE), Patrick Peterson (ARI), Antonio Cromartie (ARI)

Grimes, Davis, and Revis should be on every ballot. If Odell Beckham had the catch of the year, Grimes had the interception of year, two weeks ago against Calvin Johnson. He's got 12 PDs, 5 picks, and a touchdown. Davis is a true shutdown corner, and he's second in the league in passes defensed, 16. Revis is having his best season in four or five years. I'm too young to have watched Night Train Lane, but the stories sound a bit like Revis. Lane was more aggressive going after interceptions, while Revis usually keeps the ball in front of him, but they're both intimidating in coverage, and hard tacklers.

Richard Sherman isn't playing as well as he did last season, when I named him Defensive Player of the Year, but he's still one of the league's best cornerbacks. Talib has noticeably elevated Denver's pass defense, while his teammate Chris Harris (DEN) has 13 PDs and leads all CBs with 5 tackles for loss. Haden and Peterson have overcome slow starts; I like Peterson a little better than Cromartie. Both have struggled at times, and both have played brilliantly at times.

Perrish Cox (SF) is a playmaker in the secondary, having a break-out season. Casey Hayward (GB) is not on ballot, but he has 3 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries, returned for a combined 162 yards and 2 TDs. Keenan Lewis (NO) is playing through injury and has slipped off my ballot. Greg Toler (IND) has held up pretty well on the other side from Davis.

Strong Safety

Antoine Bethea (SF), Mike Adams (IND)

Bethea is the hammer in San Francisco's secondary; he's replaced Donte Whitner (CLE) and they haven't missed a beat. Adams leads the NFL in takeaways (4 INT, 2 FR). He's having an impressive all-around season. James Ihedigbo (DET) has made a number of big plays for Detroit's top-ranked defense: 2 sacks, 2 INT, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, 75 return yards ... he's one of the better players on one of the league's better defensive units. I think Bethea and Adams are easy choices, but Ihedigbo or Whitner would probably rank third.

Free Safety

Harrison Smith (MIN), Rashad Johnson (ARI)

I'm all about boring last names at this position.

Tashaun Gipson (CLE), who leads the NFL in interceptions, tore his MCL in Week 12 and will miss the remainder of the season. That makes a tough three-way battle an easy choice. Smith is all over the field, doing everything you ask a safety to do. He's got 50 tackles, including 4 for a loss. He has 8 passes defensed, 4 INTs, a TD. The best safeties, the Ed Reeds and Troy Polamalus, hit like linebackers and play the ball like corners. That's the kind of season Smith is having, maybe not quite an Ed Reed season, but something close to it. Johnson has the same kind of stats in the Cardinals' crowded defensive backfield.

Michael Griffin (TEN) is a playmaker for the lowly Titans. He's second among DBs in tackles (Morgan Burnett), tied for first in sacks (Brandon Meriweather), tied for third in TFL, and he's got two picks. Eric Weddle (SD) is a perennial Pro Bowl contender, and he's having a good season, but without quite as many impact plays as Smith and Johnson. Charles Woodson (OAK), old as the hills, has 59 tackles, 2 interceptions, a sack, and a fumble recovery. Devin McCourty (NE) could be a Pro Bowler down the line.

Kicker

Dan Bailey (DAL), Adam Vinatieri (IND)

I haven't voted for Vinatieri since 2004. But he's second in the NFL in field goals, and he hasn't missed all season, although he's had some long kicks (53, 50, 48 three times). Bailey has made the most deep kicks. He's tied for most 50+ yard field goals (5/6) and most 40+ yard field goals (12/14).

Of course, those guys both play in stadiums with roofs. If you want someone who kicks in tougher conditions, the obvious choice is Stephen Gostkowski (NE), who leads the NFL in field goals and is tied with Bailey from 40 yards and beyond (12/12). I like Bailey better because he's hit five 50-yarders, compared to one for Gostkowski. Justin Tucker (BAL) is having a nice season, but he hasn't made a lot of long kicks (8/11 from 40+) and I don't think he deserves your vote right now. My fourth choice is another dome kicker, Matt Bryant (ATL). He's third in long (40+) field goals, and he hasn't missed from inside 50 all year.

Return Specialist

Darren Sproles (PHI), Adam Jones (CIN)

I'm glad the league renamed this position, so no one gets their pants in a bunch over semantic arguments about whether the only position for returners should include both punts and kickoffs. I like the format I used for this position last season — there are 13 players with a kick return TD this season. Let's take those 13, plus Jones, the only player among the top 10 in both KR and PR yardage, and narrow it down.

10-14. Stedman Bailey (STL), Josh Huff (PHI), Micah Hyde (GB), Chris Polk (PHI), and C.J. Spiller (BUF) are not on the ballot, for various reasons.

9. Ted Ginn (ARI) has an awful KR average, and more fair catches than punt returns. Don't be scared, homie.

8. Corey Brown (CAR) fumbles too much and averages under 10 yards per PR. Other than his one TD, Brown's PR average is 4.9. He goes by Philly Brown so they won't make him play center.

7. Chris Williams (CHI) has only played seven games.

6. I would never vote for Jacoby Jones (BAL). His PR average is crappy and he has a bunch of fumbles, plus his decision-making — bringing kickoffs out of the end zone — drives me nuts. Counting the negative yardage inside the end zone, Jones has lost 113 yards of field position, more than 10 yards per game. Some of that is forgivable, but he has six KRs this season from at least eight yards deep in the end zone. One of them went for a touchdown, so maybe you think it's worth the mistakes. But returning deep kickoffs risks injury for you and your teammates, risks penalties, risk turnovers, and usually costs field position. Statistically, you're almost three times as likely to fumble a kickoff as you are to return it for a touchdown (58 TD and 159 fumbles over the last five seasons). More than five yards deep should be a touchback every time.

5. Devin Hester (ATL) hasn't done a good job on kickoffs. His punt returning is good, but nowhere near the level of his best seasons.

4. Knile Davis (KC) doesn't return punts. I don't know how you would rate him ahead of Adam Jones; their KR stats are pretty much the same, and Jones is a good punt returner.

3. Julian Edelman (NE) doesn't return kickoffs. He's a very good punt returner.

2. Adam Jones is the best all-around (kickoffs and punts) returner in the NFL this season. He leads the NFL in KR average (31.8) and has the third-best PR average (13.1, behind Sproles and Edelman) despite zero fair catches.

1. Sproles leads the NFL in PR yardage (by almost 200) and PR average (by over a yard), and he's the only player with multiple return TDs. He should be on everyone's ballot.

Punter

Sam Koch (BAL), Kevin Huber (CIN)

I considered five punters: Koch, Huber, Pat McAfee (IND), Marquette King (OAK), and Johnny Hekker (STL). The argument for Hekker is a little gimmicky: he's pulled off two fake punts this year for first downs. He also has a pretty good net average (41.4, or 42.2 without a block), he hasn't kicked a lot of touchbacks (20 I-20, 3 TB), and he's done a nice job with hang time and directional kicking to avoid returns (53 punts, 18 returns for 124 yards). Those are good stats, especially the limited returning, but he's not in the conversation with Koch and Huber and McAfee unless you give extra credit for the fakes.

King is really tough to evaluate, because the Raiders' special teams unit is not very good. Shane Lechler used to handle this by just booming the crap out of the ball and crossing his fingers. King's (rather wiser) approach has been to maximize hang time and kick away from the returner: he's gotten 26 fair catches, by far the most in the NFL, and 15 punts downed without a return, also most in the NFL. King also has the best ratio of I-20 (22) to TB (1) in the league. But ultimately, his net average is just okay, and is actually pretty poor when you consider the field position he's been kicking from. He leads in fair catches and downed punts partly because he has punted more than anyone else.

That leaves McAfee as my favorite indoor/good-weather punter. It's not a terribly bold choice, since McAfee leads the NFL in net average, but that average is even more impressive because many of his kicks have been from around midfield, where you have to deliberately shorten them up to avoid touchbacks. More than half of McAfee's punts have been downed inside the 20 (20) or touchbacks (2), so a lot of them he could have kicked deeper if there was room.

Ultimately, though, I went with two cold-weather punters. Huber's net average (44.4) is right behind McAfee's (44.7), he's a little better about preventing returns, and their other stats are roughly equal. Koch has a ton of kicks from a short field — 23 of his 37 punts have been I-20 (21) or TB (2) — but he has a good net average (43.1) and only 13 returns against him. Close call, but for now I've got Koch and Huber, both of whom play in tougher conditions than McAfee.

Special Teamer

Matthew Slater (NE), Eric Weems (ATL)

For the first time I can remember, most of the top special teamers are on the ballot. The Texans don't list anyone, but the Dolphins have two players. The ballot includes two very good special teamers for whom you shouldn't vote because of injuries: Michael Thomas (MIA) will miss the second half of the season due to a chest injury, and Marcus Easley (BUF) just played for the first time since Week 4 (and immediately made two stops on special teams).

I'm enthusiastic about Slater and Weems, but I also like Seyi Ajirotutu (SD), Colt Anderson (IND), Justin Bethel (ARI), and Chris Maragos (PHI).

The teams I voted for most this season were the Broncos (7) and Patriots (6). On the 2013 Pro Bowl ballot, my leading teams were the 49ers and Seahawks (7 each).

There are five teams from whom I selected no one: the 1-10 Jaguars, 1-10 Raiders, 2-9 Titans, 3-8 Giants, and ... the 7-4 Chargers? You could easily vote for Philip Rivers or Antonio Gates or Eric Weddle or Seyi Ajirotutu, and they were all close to making my ballot, but I didn't want to compromise my choices just to avoid snubbing a good team.

2014 Midseason Awards

Offensive Player of the Year — DeMarco Murray (DAL)
Defensive Player of the Year — J.J. Watt (HOU)
MVP — Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Coach of the Year — Bruce Arians (ARI)
Assistant — Jim Schwartz (BUF)
Rookie of the Year — Aaron Donald (STL)

Posted by Brad Oremland at 8:45 PM | Comments (0)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Thanksgiving Games

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Chicago @ Detroit (-6)

The Lions were soundly thrashed 34-9 by Tom Brady and the Patriots last week, and Detroit fell out of a first-place tie in the NFC North. A win over the Bears would keep the Lions one game behind the Packers.

"We intended to go to Foxboro and prove that we belonged with New England amongst the NFL's elite," Jim Caldwell said. "When all was said and done, it was all just a 'Patriot Act.'

"It's Thanksgiving in Detroit. You can't help but to talk about tradition. In Detroit, 'tradition' is Ndamukong Suh assaulting an opponent with his foot. Ron Artest and Meta World Peace have dubbed Suh's violation of Matt Schaub the 'Malice in the Phallus.' Trust me, Jay Cutler's aware of Suh's history, and he's taking the necessary precautions. Bears fans agree that it can't be the first time Cutler's worn a 'Maxi pad.'"

The Bears are hanging by a thread in the NFC's playoff race even after last week's 21-13 win over Tampa. With a loss in Detroit, they can practically say goodbye to any chance of making the playoffs.

"I hear the words 'early goodbye,'" Marc Trestman said, "and I get nervous. I've got a feeling that if we don't make the playoffs, I'm a goner. I'll probably get a call to see general manager Phil Emery is his office, and, as they say, the 'Trest' is history.'

"But we're not eliminated from the playoff race until someone informs me that we've been mathematically eliminated. I'm taking action to combat that. I'm banning any and all mathematicians from all team activities."

Calvin Johnson's visit to Revis Island was one he'd like to forget. And he will, because he'll be on solid ground when the Bears come to Detroit. Johnson catches 2 touchdown passes, and says "Isle see you later" to the Bears secondary.

Detroit wins, 33-21.

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-3)

The Cowboys outgunned the Giants at MetLife Stadium 31-28 behind 4 touchdown passes from Tony Romo, two to Dez Bryant. Thanksgiving's showdown with the Eagles is for the outright lead in the NFC East.

"The anti-Cowboy establishment loves to count the Cowboys out," Jerry Jones said. "They did so when we were down 21-10 to start the third quarter against the Giants. I've been around a long time, and I can tell you this: it's not over until the fat lady sings, or the young lady settles out of court. The lesson: never count a Cowboy out, unless you're the referee in an Ed 'Too Tall' Jones boxing match."

The Eagles jumped on the Titans early, taking a 17-0 lead on their way to a 43-24 win. LeSean McCoy busted through the Tennessee defense for 130 yards and a touchdown.

"LeSean finally had a breakout game," Chip Kelly said. "He's not the only running back in Pennsylvania that was 'cut loose' last week. LeGarrette Blount is a great backup to have, but obviously, he's not a team player. He puts the 'sub' in 'insubordinate.'

"I like our chances in Dallas. Mark Sanchez is getting the job done at quarterback. Nick Foles has been cleared to practice, so he may be ready to play sometime in December. Who will be the starter when Foles is healthy enough to go? If you ask the Philly-green Santa Claus, he'll tell you it 'Ain't Nick.'"

Philadelphia wins, 34-30.

Seattle @ San Francisco (even)

The NFC West's hottest rivalry resumes on Thanksgiving, as the Seahawks and 49ers face off in the first of two matchups in three weeks. The Seahawks vanquished the Cardinals, 19-3, last week, cutting the Cards' division lead to two games.

"It was the Seahawks and the Cardinals," Pete Carroll said. "It wasn't 'Game of Thrones,' it was 'Game of Birds,' not to be confused with 'Game of Tweets,' which is a silly game Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson play. Please, somebody 'shutdown' their Twitter accounts.

"Are we good enough to repeat as Super Bowl champions? This transcript of Marshawn Lynch's answers in a recent interview should help answer that question: 'Maybe. Yeah. I don't know.' Interestingly enough, those are the same answers I gave to the NCAA back in 2010. On that note, let me just say I don't sanction Marshawn's behavior."

The 49ers edged the Redskins 17-13 at Levi's Stadium last week to improve to 7-4. The last time San Fran and Seattle met, the Seahawks sent the 49ers packing in the NFC Championship Game.

"Trust me," Jim Harbaugh said, "Michael Crabtree hasn't forgotten. Revenge is certainly on his mind. On Thanksgiving, he wants to be the player interviewed by Erin Andrews. That would certainly be one of the internet's most-viewed clips, right behind the hidden video of Erin preparing stuffing for her Thanksgiving turkey. History has shown that everyone loves seeing Erin 'dressing.'

"We'll find out who's willing to put it all on the line. Ronnie Lott once gave up half his pinkie to be able to play. It's that kind of toughness I want to see from my players. And judging by my tenuous relationship with my players, I think they'd be quite willing to 'give me the finger.'"

Seattle wins, 18-16.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:18 PM | Comments (0)

November 25, 2014

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* You know what I can't stand? That commercial where a family of Vikings fans ends up rooting for the Bengals, Cowboys, Steelers, and whoever else instead. I don't believe it. There's no way a family that grows up wearing Viking jerseys all end up switching their allegiance. I'm not sure why it bothers me so much, except that it's so implausible. Am I the only one who hates that ad?

* Jonas Gray is from Michigan, went to high school in Detroit. His first pro game in his hometown, Gray stood on the sidelines for three hours, never got into the game. Dude will never show up late again. Bill Belichick don't play.

* All-pro safety Eric Berry's season is over. Berry has a mass in his chest, believed to be lymphoma. Berry is 25 and in the last year of his contract. Obviously, fans around the league are hoping for good news after Berry meets with doctors this week.

* One of the Sunday highlight shows featured Josh Gordon warming up, but declined to show any of his 8 receptions. NBC also showed him warming up, and they favored viewers with one of those 8 catches. Man, who wants to see the dude stretching? Show us a play.

* The Pro Football Hall of Fame has announced this year's semifinalists. My preferences to advance: Morten Andersen, Steve Atwater, Tim Brown, Isaac Bruce, Don Coryell, Terrell Davis, Tony Dungy, Kevin Greene, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Joe Jacoby, Kevin Mawae, Orlando Pace, Junior Seau, and Will Shields.

Week 12 Rant: Ticket Prices

The Dallas Cowboys probably have more fans than any other team in the NFL. They're a truly national team, they have a proud history, and they're good right now, plus they're from a football-crazy part of the country. In Week 1, the season opener, the stands in Dallas were visibly full of red jerseys, and the 49er fans were loud. In Week 5, Tony Romo had to use a silent count for a home game against Houston. This week, the tables turned as Dallas fans made a ton of noise for a game against the Giants in New Jersey. What ever happened to home field advantage?

Here's my theory: ticket prices are too high. Home fans can't afford to spend thousands of dollars on the full slate of home games, so they sell their tickets. But in 2014, they don't sell their tickets to friends or neighbors or co-workers — they put them online. And many of the buyers — maybe most — are fans of the road team, who have a once-a-year (or less) opportunity to see their favorite team.

Furthermore, television has gotten so good, and crowds so nasty, that I suspect many fans don't want to go to every home game. At home, you sit on a comfy couch instead of a plastic chair, you can pee without standing in line, and the beers don't cost $10. You don't have to endure bad weather or opposing fans, you get to see all the replays, and you save a hundred bucks. Why not just pick the games you really want to see in person, and sell the rest?

It's happening in some cities faster than others, but it's a trend I expect will accelerate as time goes on.

2014 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings

Brackets indicate previous rank. Check back tomorrow for an in-depth look at this year's Pro Bowl ballot.

1. New England Patriots [1] — Sixth team in NFL history with at least 14 consecutive winning seasons. The others were the 1930-44 Chicago Bears, 1934-47 Green Bay Packers, 1965-80 Oakland Raiders, 1966-85 Dallas Cowboys, and 1983-98 San Francisco 49ers. Longest active streaks, not including 2014:

1. Patriots, 13
2. Packers, 5
t3. Bengals, 3
t3. 49ers, 3

What the Patriots are doing is special.

2. Green Bay Packers [2] — Eddie Lacy has rushed for 100 yards twice this season — both performances coming against the Minnesota Vikings. Boomer Esiason called next week's game the regular-season Super Bowl: Patriots at Packers. They should get Katy Perry Bruce Springsteen to do halftime of that one. The Packers are favored by 3, and the over/under is 58.5.

3. Denver Broncos [6] — Peyton Manning has thrown for more yards than the opposing quarterback for nine games in a row, and he threw 4 TDs against Miami. Most 4-TD games this season:

1. Peyton Manning, 4
t2. Tom Brady, 3
t2. Andrew Luck, 3
t4. Aaron Rodgers, 2
t4. Ben Roethlisberger, 2

Most 4-TD games, career:

1. Peyton Manning, 35
2. Drew Brees, 25
3. Brett Favre, 23
4. Tom Brady, 22
5. Dan Marino, 21

4. Indianapolis Colts [5] — Andrew Luck took 5 sacks against Jacksonville, tying a career-high. But Luck has taken a big step forward this season; his performance has nearly caught up to the hype. Luck threw more TDs in his first nine games this season (26) than in either of his first two years, and his passer rating has jumped from 76.5 as a rookie to 87.0 in 2013 to 99.4 this season. It's frustrating that so many analysts spent two years talking about Luck like he was already the player he was going to become, but Luck is smart, talented, mature, and a hard worker — he'll likely continue to improve.

I wrote the section above, including "nearly caught up to the hype," before I heard Chris Berman, on Monday Night Countdown, tell viewers, "Andrew's gonna win about three, four Super Bowls." There are a dozen Hall of Famers who didn't win two Super Bowls, to say nothing of three or four. I'd give five-to-one odds that Luck retires with fewer than three Super Bowl rings, and that's nothing against Luck. Football is a team sport, and being a great quarterback doesn't assure any championships.

So, I take it back. Luck's performance is still nowhere near the hype. And it's not Luck's fault. He's a great quarterback and a humble guy. But assuring viewers that Luck will do what Dan Marino and Brett Favre and John Elway and company did not, that's just a near-impossible standard.

5. Arizona Cardinals [3] — Sacked Russell Wilson seven times, blocked a field goal, and held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 attempts. But their own offense produced just 12 first downs and 204 yards. The Seahawks have a good defense, and they're tough in Seattle, so I don't think it's fair to pin this on Drew Stanton, but Cardinal fans are surely nervous after a pair of mediocre games from their substitute QB.

6. Kansas City Chiefs [4] — There are a million excuses for what happened on Thursday night. Pouring rain. A road game on a short week. A fluke loss to a division rival. Okay, three excuses, not a million. But I don't believe that performance was indicative of this team's skill. They'd won five in a row before that — against average opponents (combined 26-29, .473), not beating up on the Jaguars and Bucs every week.

7. Miami Dolphins [7] — A 3-point loss in Denver doesn't make you think this is a weak team. But the Dolphins have traditionally struggled in cold weather, and two of the next three are outdoors, against the Jets and Patriots.

8. Seattle Seahawks [13] — After a 3-3 start, they've won four of their last five. They play at San Francisco on Thanksgiving, a critical game in a nasty rivalry. The Niners are slight favorites, about ½-point at this writing.

DeShawn Shead blocked a punt with his face on Sunday.

9. Philadelphia Eagles [10] — Three different Eagles have scored on some form of kick return this year: Darren Sproles, Chris Polk, and Josh Huff have combined for four return TDs. No other team has more than 1 KR TD in 2014.

10. Dallas Cowboys [9] — Two of their next three games are against the Eagles. That's bad scheduling, and it seems like it happens more often every season. It's more interesting, and more aesthetically pleasing, when those games are spread out.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers [11] — Eleven of the AFC's 16 teams have winning records. Nine of them are at least 7-4, including everyone in the AFC North. Conversely, everyone in the NFC South is 4-7 or below, with a combined record of 13-30-1. Excluding their wins against each other, the NFC South is a collective 6-23-1 (.217). The AFC North teams are 10-1-1 against the NFC South; the lone loser? Pittsburgh, who lost 27-24 at home (!) against Tampa Bay in Week 4.

12. Buffalo Bills [14] — Largest margin of victory since 1992. Maybe they should play all their home games in Detroit.

13. Baltimore Ravens [12] — That was a nasty horse-collar tackle by Lardarius Webb on the opening drive. It paid off: that play absolutely saved a touchdown, and the Saints turned the ball over without scoring. The Ravens have to be a little worried about what happened to their defense on Monday night. They gave up 525 yards, and that banged-up secondary looked really vulnerable. If Justin Forsett doesn't have the game of his life, that's a loss.

14. Detroit Lions [8] — Not an explosive offense. They haven't scored 30 points in a game since Week 1, and haven't scored a touchdown in the last two games. The offensive performance against New England was horrific: under 3 yards per carry by their running backs, and 18-of-46 passing with 2 sacks and an interception.

15. Cincinnati Bengals [20] — I hate when people base their rankings on head-to-head results any later than Week 2 or so.

Week 10: Browns 24, Bengals 3
Week 11: Texans 23, Browns 7
Week 12: Bengals 22, Texans 13

If you use a strict head-to-head system, this creates a paradox, an endless loop of Bengals > Texans > Browns > Bengals.

16. San Francisco 49ers [16] — Uninspired win, at home against a struggling opponent. They did a nice job against RG3, but got gashed by Alfred Morris (season-high 125 yds), never got their run game going, and committed three turnovers. Anquan Boldin powered the offense (9 rec, 137 yds, TD). I feel like he's been underrated for about the last five years.

17. St. Louis Rams [15] — Since the bye, they're 3-5. All eight games were against teams that are 7-4 or better, with a combined record of 60-28 (.682). They also faced the 8-3 Cowboys in Week 3.

Johnny Hekker is now 2-for-2 passing on fake punts. Maybe they should try him at quarterback.

18. San Diego Chargers [21] — This rank seems low for a 7-4 team, but half the league is 7-4 (literally, there are 16 teams with at least seven wins), and I grade on current strength. The Chargers haven't had an impressive victory since Week 5. You have to think this is a better team with Ryan Mathews — if he stays healthy.

19. New Orleans Saints [17] — It didn't affect the final outcome, but what a horrible decision by Nick Toon at the end of the game. With :52 remaining and New Orleans trying to tie, Toon caught the ball about a yard from the sideline and dove upfield instead of out of bounds. He gained two yards, but cost his team its last timeout. Nick Toon should stick to showing SpongeBob SquarePants and Power Rangers.

Most losses by 7 or less this season: Saints (5), Buccaneers (5), Raiders (5), many tied (3)

Most losses by 3 or less this season: Saints (4), Titans (3), many tied (2)

20. Houston Texans [18] — Ryan Mallett tore his right pectoral muscle during warmups, but played through it ... badly. Mallett went 21-of-45 for just 189 yards (4.2/att) and an interception (49.2 rating). We talk sometimes about the difference between being injured and being hurt. The latter you can sometimes gut through, but when you're too banged up to play, you have a responsibility to your teammates and coaches to take yourself out of the game. Going out there and playing like crap doesn't make me think Mallett is tough and a leader; it makes me think he's more interested in proving himself than helping the team. This is a season-ending injury, so Ryan Fitzpatrick is back in at QB, with a chance of seeing rookie Tom Savage at some point.

21. Cleveland Browns [19] — A week after they lost Karlos Dansby (sprained MCL), safety Tashaun Gipson tore an MCL, and is done for the regular season. They've lost two of their three best defensive players. Don't walk under any ladders, Joe Haden.

22. Atlanta Falcons [22] — Defense played great this weekend, intercepting Brian Hoyer (who came in with only 5 picks all season) three times and repeatedly forcing the Browns to settle for field goals. They mishandled the clock with a chance to win.

23. Minnesota Vikings [24] — Among the four rookie QBs who have started this season — Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Zach Mettenberger — Bridgewater ranks 2nd in completion percentage, 3rd in yards per attempt and net yards per attempt, 3rd in yards per completion, last in TD percentage, 2nd-best in INT percentage and sack percentage, 2nd in first down percentage, and 3rd in passer rating. He has the 2nd-best rushing stats, and the fewest fumbles.

He's not committing a lot of turnovers, so the main improvement you'd like to see from Teddy at this point is big plays: touchdowns and long completions. It's great he's not making too many mistakes, but you'd like to see him open things up and take a few chances as he becomes more comfortable at the pro level.

24. Chicago Bears [27] — They've won two in a row. I have trouble moving them up, because: (1) they beat bad teams, with a combined record of 6-16; (2) both games were at home; (3) they didn't win impressively; and (4) their previous two games were embarrassing losses. Jay Cutler seems to be getting worse as the season goes on. How do you face the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL — missing one of its best players — with weapons like Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett at your disposal, and only pass for 112 net yards on 30 attempts?

25. New York Jets [23] — This is bigger than Geno Smith and Michael Vick. Neither one has played well, but it's not entirely their fault. There's just not a lot of talent on this team (except on the defensive line).

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [25] — Played without Lavonte David (hamstring). Should have played without Josh McCown (inaccuracy).

27. Washington [26] — Robert Griffin III leads the NFL in sack percentage, 14.4%, but let's a take a week off from RGIII ... here's where I believe the game was lost. It was a 10-10 tie with about 8:00 left in the fourth quarter. Washington had 4th-and-2 at the San Francisco 28-yard line. When you're facing a superior opponent — and I think everyone agrees that the 49ers are better than Washington — you have to take some chances. In a conservative game, the better team almost always wins. The coaching staff knows this, because they approached the Monday night game against Dallas very aggressively. Anyway, Jay Gruden chose to attempt a long field goal on 4th-and-2. The kick was good, but San Francisco got the ball back and scored a touchdown, eventually winning 17-13. Earlier in the game, Gruden had chosen a field goal on 4th-and-3 from the SF 9. Man, your team is not very good. Take some chances.

28. New York Giants [28] — Odell Beckham is really, really good.

29. Tennessee Titans [29] — Run defense got burned for the second week in a row. The Titan defense ranks 32nd in rush yards allowed, 25th in rush average, tied for second-to-last in rush TDs, dead last in rushing first downs ... the biggest problem is their linebacking corps. Safety Michael Griffin leads the team, by far, in tackles. They signed Wesley Woodyard in free agency and thought he'd patrol the middle for them. Woodyard probably is the best run-stopper on the team, but he's not contributing the way they hoped. It's not too early for a 2-9 team to be thinking about next year's draft, and the Titans should target a play-making LB or strong safety in the first or second round.

The other priority is wide receiver. In May, Tennessee drafted Taylor Lewan (who left this week's game with an ankle injury) one spot before the Giants drafted Odell Beckham, and traded out of the slot Philadelphia used to select Jordan Matthews. How this team went through a draft loaded with a position they desperately needed, and failed to draft any of those dudes, boggles the mind.

30. Carolina Panthers [30] — It's very likely that a wide receiver will be named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Quite a few are playing well, but the realistic contenders for the award are probably Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, and Sammy Watkins. Beckham missed four games at the beginning of the season, but he's a phenomenal talent, and just played a sensational game in front of a national audience. Benjamin might have the most potential in the group. It's unfair to compare anyone to Calvin Johnson, but if Benjamin's hands improve, he is the kind of guy whose size and athleticism make him nearly impossible to cover. Even when he's not open, he's open. Evans has a similar profile, actually. He's been on fire recently, and he has the best stats in the group, which could make him the OROY front-runner. Watkins has been dealing with a groin injury just as Beckham and Evans are hitting their stride, but Watkins got off to the hottest start, and he's the only one whose team is in the playoff hunt.

31. Oakland Raiders [32] — They should probably rank a couple spots higher than this. I base these ratings on current strength, not the entire season to date, and since the Week 5 bye, the Raiders only have two losses by more than 10 points: 24-13 to Arizona, and 41-17 to Denver. In this part of the rankings, there tend to be more blowouts, and the Raiders have been competitive most weeks.

I wish that announcers would get over themselves about Khalil Mack, though. On Thursday night, Jim Nantz and Phils Simms raved about Mack almost recovering a fumble. They sounded like fanboys. Have some dignity.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — Are the Jaguars doing the same thing to Blake Bortles that they did to Helpless Blaine Gabbert? Bortles had a brutal game against the Colts, and only one of his nine appearances this year has produced more TDs than INTs. He's not making obvious improvement, and I'm not sure what the team hopes to gain by playing him before he's ready.

Check back tomorrow for Sports Central's analysis and votes on this year's Pro Bowl ballot.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:37 PM | Comments (0)

November 24, 2014

The Reason For the Season

As we hit this Thanksgiving week, we enter in the midst of the annual holiday tournament stretch. The traditional eight-team events in Charleston and Puerto Rico have been completed, as well as the four-team showcases involving the Wounded Warriors Project, Coaches vs. Cancer, and the Basketball Hall of Fame. However, this is when the run really gets in gear, with games going on in Maui, Las Vegas, Cancun, the Bahamas, and other exotic locales. Other than mid-March, I'd say that this is my favorite time of the college basketball season. Why, exactly, is that the case? Let me tell you.

1) The Original "Bracket Busters"

Before ESPN decided to develop the series of February showcase games featuring mid-major hopefuls, one of the best ways to encounter some interesting cross-regional games would be through these small tournaments. Sure, these organizations would love to fill their brackets with the richest of college hoops blue bloods. Another thing I give them credit for, though, is that they do a good job of sharing (and spreading) the wealth. A rotation of the traditional powers (Duke, Kansas, UCLA, Michigan State, etc.) allows for more of the "smaller" schools to get shots against big boys.

2) A Great First Step

These tournaments provide an environment the highly-ranked teams won't see again until early March. But it also allows a couple "under-the-radar" teams an opportunity to announce their presence on the season. It might not last all the way to Championship Week, but it could very well be the springboard for a tournament bid.

In 2012, Oklahoma State stunned sixth-ranked N.C. State in Puerto Rico. The Cowboys had some high-flying talent return to Stillwater, but this event basically marked the beginning of Marcus Smart's two-year collegiate career. Just last year, UMass got through a shootout (against Nebraska) and provided an upset (against New Mexico) on their way to winning the Charleston Classic. The Minutemen ended up returning to the NCAA tourney for the first time since 1998. Also in 2013, Villanova came out of nowhere to stun the two favorites (#2 Kansas and #23 Iowa) and win down in the Bahamas. That could easily be seen as the catalyst for the Wildcats' regular season conference championship in the first year of the new Big East.

Heck, we may have our first team to keep an eye on this season. West Virginia took the defending national champs Sunday, defeating Connecticut for this edition of the Charleston event. We'll see if the Mountaineers can continue a trend of sleepers working their way into the March postseason.

3) We See You Bustin' Loose, Coach

It's great that the coaches in this sport do their best to look as sharp as possible. Some of the suits can bring more "wow!" factor than the athleticism shown on the court. Admit it, though. This is a time where the ties should be tucked away and the suit coat/vest should be substituted with a Tommy Bahama shirt. Is it cheesy? Sure. But I think it's fun to see the coaches make an attempt at levity in their fashion statements (because we know that won't be the case for their demeanor on the sidelines).

4) They Seem to Know "Time, Score, Situation" Theory

Throughout the week, most of these tournaments will be shown on any variety of television stations. I figured that, like with many other neutral-site sporting events, attendance would be lacking at some of these games (and they probably do at the seventh and fifth-place deciders). After doing a little digging, it appears that most of these organizations are doing their setups right.

If you look into the venues hosting these eight-team events, most appear to fall into the intimate category (2,500-9,000 seat capacity). With the expense of an extended stay and the uncertainty of game time (from day-to-day), I don't think these organizers are over-extending themselves just to try and get more fannies into too many seats (something the NCAA might think about during their own event).

Of course, there are drawbacks to all of these sets of brackets (overexposure, dilution of product, etc.). However, these money-grabbers (let's not kid ourselves) do provide a connection to the "community" aspect of the game. They're one last extension to those tournaments you may have played in summer ball or high school. And, when all is said and done, they're just fun basketball. Enjoy the Holidays, and enjoy the hoops.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 3:58 PM | Comments (0)

November 20, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 12

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Kansas City @ Oakland (+7)

The Chiefs won a physical slugfest against Seattle, knocking off the Seahawks 24-20 at Arrowhead Stadium. Jamaal Charles rushed for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, outplaying Marshawn Lynch.

"In the battle of statistics," Charles said, "Lynch was in 'Least' mode.

"Hank Stram's Super Bowl IV ring is up for sale. I think everyone on this team longs to own their own ring. Personally, I long for the days of yore when coaches wore three-piece suits, like Mr. Stram, and not muumuu's, like Andy Reid."

The Raiders were held to 233 total yards and two Sebastian Janikowski field goals in a 13-6 loss at San Diego last week. Oakland remained winless, and is 0-10 in the AFC West.

"When Janikowski is most newsworthy among Raiders players," Tony Sparano said, "you know you're in trouble, especially if you're a 20-something hottie he met at a club. Six points sounds bad. 0-10 sounds worse. What sounds even worse than that? The O.co Stadium house band, 'Sebastian Janikowski and the Slipped Mickeys.'

"To further emphasize the sad state of Oakland athletes, former Oakland A's legend Jose Canseco lost a finger at a poker game last week. No, he didn't lose it in a bet, it just fell off. Talk about a bad hand. Suffice it to say he didn't have a full house. If there ever was a perfect time for human growth hormone, this is it."

Prior to kickoff, the Oakland locker room is raided by NFL representatives looking for metal pebbles in the jerseys. It doesn't take them "Long" to realize there's nothing at all dangerous in any Raiders jersey.

Charles rushes for a score, and Alex Smith finally hits a wide receiver for a touchdown, on a pass intended for Travis Kelce that is tipped 9 times by players on both teams, and twice by officials, and finally settles into the hands of Dwyane Bowe in the end zone.

Chiefs wins, 23-14.

Cleveland @ Atlanta (-3)

The Browns were soundly beaten at home 23-7 by the Texans, who destroyed the Browns defense with 213 yards on the ground. Cleveland will look to rebound in the Georgia Dome against the suddenly hot Falcons.

"There's a saying in Cleveland," Mike Pettine said. "It's goes 'Cleveland Rocks.' And no, that doesn't refer to Art Modell's kidney stones, which, by the way, are on display in the Browns Hall Of Fame. Anyway, we didn't 'rock' last week. On the contrary, 'Cleveland Sucks.'

"Josh Gordon has been reinstated by the league after completing his 10-game suspension. He's thrilled to be back, and his teammates are thrilled to have him. It's like he never left. Some opined that Josh wouldn't be able to gel after so much time off. But guess what? We tested positive for team chemistry."

The Falcons beat the Panthers 19-17 in Charlotte and tightened the race in the NFC South considerably. Matt Bryant's 44-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter provided the winning points, and Graham Gano missed two potential game-winning kicks for the Panthers.

"I guess the pressure was just too much for Gano," Mike Smith said. "Call him a 'Graham Cracker.'

"But on the subject of second chances, I should be most grateful for our sudden turn of fortune. I was this close to being fired. And by 'this close,' I mean the distance between my index finger and my thumb, held just a few millimeters apart. That's also the distance between Arthur Blank's mustache and his upper lip. That thing is well-manicured, and Mr. Blank likes it perfect. As such, he gives the me, and well as his team of mustache-artisans, no room for error."

The Falcons are tied for the lead in the NFC South. These days, the "South" stands for "South of .500." It's likely the the winner of the division will never see .500, or the divisional round.

The Browns lean on their running game to wear down the Atlanta defense, and Joe Haden shuts down Julio Jones.

Cleveland wins, 24-21.

Tennessee @ Philadelphia (-11)

The Eagles were throttled, 53-20, by the Packers at chilly Lambeau Field last week. Green Bay chewed up the Philly defense to the tune of 478 total yards. The Packers defense forced four turnovers and scored on a fumble return, interception return, and a punt return.

"We got whipped in all phases of the game," Chip Kelly said, "although we did hold a huge edge in the 'most times kicked off to' statistic.

"It looks like the NFC championship goes through Green Bay. And Green Bay just went through Philadelphia."

The lowly Titans head to Philadelphia, still reeling from Monday night's 27-24 loss to the Steelers. Tennessee let a 24-13 fourth-quarter lead slip away as they dropped to 2-8.

"One the bright side," Ken Whisenhunt said, "Zach Mettenberger played exceptionally well, save for one errant pass that was returned for a touchdown. You can safely say we're still looking for our quarterback of the future. Since Vince Young's infamous Wonderlic test, this franchise has continued to look for 'The One.' Zach may be 'The One.' Like Young, Zach is big and has a strong arm, and he sucks at standardized tests.

"As you've probably heard, the NFL fined tight end Chase Coffman $30,000 for a cheap shot on a Ravens coach in our game with Baltimore. Surprisingly, it did not take place on an elevator, but the sidelines."

The Eagles turn 3 turnovers into 10 points, and the Eagles KO the Titans, 30-14.

Detroit @ New England (-7)

The Lions lost 14-6 to the Cardinals in Arizona in a battle of division leaders last week. The loss snapped a four-game win streak by the Lions, who are now tied with the Packers for first in the NFC North.

"Six points won't get you much of anything," Jim Caldwell said. "That's a good game for the Red Wings, but not the Lions. Unfortunately, we were the ones that played like hockey.

"This could very well be a preview of Super Bowl XLIX. By that, I mean the Patriots versus an NFC North team. Right now, Green Bay appears to be the division favorite. But don't forget, we're tied with Green Bay for the division lead, and we beat them earlier this season. Ask anyone in Detroit 'who's got the edge?' and they'll say 'the Lions.' Ask anyone in Green Bay 'who's got the Edge?' and they'll say 'U2.'"

The Patriots ran their way to a 42-20 blowout of the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. New England ran for 244 yards, led by Jonas Gray, who piled up 199 yards and scored 4 touchdowns.

"Jonas is a powerful runner," Tom Brady said. "Much of his damage comes after contact. And opposing defenses have no answer for him. He's a lot like a racist tweet — once you realize you need to stop him, you find out it's too late.

"I'm not sure the Lions are ready for us, or the weather in Foxboro. They're an indoor team with an indoor team mentality. We plan to take them out of their comfort zone, which is 68 to 73 degrees Fahrenheit."

New England wins, 27-23.

Green Bay @ Minnesota (+10)

The Packers jumped to a 30-6 halftime lead over the visiting Eagles and cruised to a 53-20 win. Aaron Rodgers threw 341 yards and 3 touchdowns, and now has 15 TD passes in his last three games.

"I think most people were expecting a much closer game," Rodgers said. "It looks as though the Eagles were guilty of the same thing Adrian Peterson was — failure to appear.

"We like the way we're playing now, but there is room for improvement. It's important we strive to accomplish that. So, I have a message for my teammates: 'Do not R-E-L-A-X.'

The Vikings dropped to 4-6 after losing 21-13 to the Bears at Soldier Field last week. Minnesota's sputtering offense produced only 243 yards of total offense, and Teddy Bridgewater struggled against a mediocre Bears defense.

"We've got to score touchdowns when we get close," Mike Zimmer said. "Contrary to what you may have heard, our 'red zone' troubles do not refer to Peterson's child's behind.

"The NFL came down hard on Adrian, suspending him for at least the remainder of the season. Of course, Adrian's appealing. He wants to play in the worst way. Fittingly, he finds it painful to 'sit.'

"This team is struggling right now. Maybe they're feeling too much pressure. Aaron Rodgers says 'relax.' Maybe we need to relax. And this being the land of 10,000 lakes, I can think of no better way to relax than a cruise on Lake Minnetonka. It's time to make a call to Fred Smoot, who runs the team's 'hospitality and player interaction administration.' Up until early September, we called that 'social services.'"

Green Bay wins, 38-17.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-13½)

The Colts were physically dominated by the visiting Patriots, who leveled the Indy defense with a whopping 244 yards rushing, while the Pats defense limited Indy to 19 yards on 17 carries.

"The Patriots drew a line in the sand," Andrew Luck said, "and dared us to cross it. It was the line of scrimmage.

"Compounding the issue, Ahmad Bradshaw is out for the season with a broken ankle. That leaves Trent Richardson as our primary back. Trent's built like a brick house. His collisions with defenders are violent, and mostly take place behind the line of scrimmage. Trent was known as the 'Cleveland Steamer' as a Brown; here, his nickname is 'Indy Backfield.'"

The Jaguars return to AFC South play after a bye week following their 31-17 loss to the Cowboys in London.

"What kind of idiot tries to buy things at a hotel with bubble gum?" Gus Bradly said. "Cornerback Dwayne Gratz, that's who. I'm not sure how much gum he spent, but I hear he 'blew' a bubble. I'm sure we'll fine him for his actions, or at the very least, I'll chew him out.

"The English people treated my players like kings. I'm not so sure they deserve it, but I told those Brits in my best Dennis Green impression, 'If you want to crown them, then crown their asses!"

Colts win, 41-20.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-2½)

The Bengals dominated the Saints in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, whipping the home team, 27-10. Andy Dalton rebounded from the worst game of his career with 220 yards and 3 touchdowns.

"We needed that win," Dalton said. "Take a huge win on the road in New Orleans, combine it with the Saints defense, and you get the 'Big Easy.'

"The Saints really don't know what hit them. They aren't asking 'Who dey?' They're asking themselves 'Who we?'"

In Ryan Mallett's first start as a Texan, Houston overwhelmed the Browns in Cleveland 23-7. Mallett tossed two touchdown passes, one a 2-yard fade to J.J. Watt.

"J.J. does it all," Mallett said. "He's the face of this franchise. He's a man. On the other hand, Jadeveon Clowney is 'part-woman.' Or is he a 'woman part?'"

Houston wins, 22-17.

NY Jets @ Buffalo (-4½)

The Jets bye week came on the heels of their 20-13 upset of the Steelers in Week 10. The win snapped an eight-game losing streak and gave Rex Ryan's squad a much needed boost of confidence.

"You could say we 'regrouped,'" Rex Ryan said. "And that may be what it's called when I find myself working with another team next year.

"The NFL fined me for profanities I uttered at officials after Week 10's win over the Steelers," Rex Ryan said. "In total, I've been fined $225,000 for language while coaching the Jets. That's a lot of cursing. Trust me, I know a 'cluster 'F'' when I see one. And I see one on the field every week."

The Bills offense stagnated in last Thursday's 22-9 loss to the Dolphins at Miami. The win left the Bills at 5-5, in third place in the AFC East.

"See," Doug Marrone said, "this is what happens when you open your big mouth and guarantee a victory. Leodis McKelvin made that bold statement before the Miami game, and he injured his ankle. Swollen or not, he's gonna have to put that foot in his mouth."

Buffalo wins, 19-10.

Tampa Bay @ Chicago (-6)

Lovie Smith returns to Chicago leading the Buccaneers, as 2-9 Tampa heads to Soldier Field to challenge the 4-6 Bears. The Bucs whipped the Redskins 27-7 last week, led by rookie receiver Mike Evans, who had 209 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns.

"I've been an influential coach of both teams," Smith said. "I think a quick glance at the records win tell you that.

"Evans could very well be the NFL's top rookie receiver. He was unstoppable in college as well. When Johnny Manziel wasn't signing autographs for money, he was throwing passes for paydirt. Most of those went to Evans. Mike was targeted as much by Johnny as Johnny was by the NCAA."

The Bears snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-13 win over the Vikings last week. Jay Cutler rebounded from a series of bad games with 330 yards passing and 3 touchdowns.

"I said I had to get better," Jay Cutler said, "and I did. That's because nearly all of my teammates said 'You better.'

"Brandon Marshall wants to stage a boxing match with a Lions fan for an anti-bullying charity. Brandon is a true activist. He supports a lot of 'causes,' particularly the one that claims I'm the sole problem with this team."

Robbie Gould kicks a 45-yard field goal as time expires, and the Bears win, 23-20.

Arizona @ Seattle (-6½)

The Cardinals stymied the visiting Lions offense last week, limiting Detroit's vaunted aerial attach to only 183 yards in a 14-6 win. Drew Stanton tossed two early TD passes to Michael Floyd, and the 9-1 Cards now have a three-game lead in the NFC West.

"We're like Bruce Arians' funky fresh red Kangol cap," Stanton said. "Comfortably on top."

The Seahawks lost at Kansas City and fell to 6-4 in the NFC West, three games behind the 9-1 Cardinals. Seattle failed on three fourth-down conversions in the fourth quarter.

"We got 'stuffed' a little early for Thanksgiving," Pete Carroll said. "A speaking a 'talking turkey,' that's something I don't do with Marshawn Lynch. We can barely stand to be in the same room together. That room is our locker room, at halftime.

"Marshawn was fined $100,000 for not talking to the media after the Kansas City game. That's a pretty stiff fine. Heck, that's 10% of the University of Southern California's yearly hush money fund. Marshawn knows just as well as USC — silence comes at a price."

Cardinals win, 20-18.

St. Louis @ San Diego (-4)

The Rams jumped to a quick 10-0 lead and made it hold in a 22-7 upset of the Broncos at the Edward Jones Dome.

"We gave Manning fits," Jeff Fisher said. "Even at his worst, I'd pick Peyton over Eli. At Eli's worst, I'd pick 6."

The Chargers won for the first time since October 12th, beating the Raiders 13-6 in a defensive struggle.

"I don't care what Antonio Gates said," Mike McCoy said. "Phillip Rivers does not have a serious rib injury. I think Antonio took his Sunday school lesson a little too literally. He heard some convoluted story about the good Lord taking Phillip's rib and creating a running back. If that happened, you could be sure that running back would be out at least six weeks to heal."

San Diego wins, 26-16.

Miami @ Denver (-7)

The Broncos dynamic offense was shut down in a 22-7 loss at St. Louis last week. Peyton Manning threw for 389 yards, but managed only a single TD pass and threw 2 interceptions.

"That's a game ball that won't be going to the Hall of Fame," Manning said. "I think I might give it to my brother Eli and see if he can '86' it. Chances are, he'll '49' it.

"I heard that Randy Moss said he'd come out of retirement to play with me. That's flattering. I find it interesting that whether playing or retired, Randy's not working."

The Dolphins whipped the Bills 22-9 last Thursday and now hold second place in the AFC East. At 6-4, the 'Fins trail the Patriots by a single game.

"If the regular season ended today," Joe Philbin said, "we'd have the final wild card spot. We'd also have a week to prepare for an away game in a cold weather city. This should be great preparation, then. And so should flying home a loser."

Prior to kickoff, the Dolphins get a visitor in former Dolphin Ricky Williams, who surprises his former team with a pep talk, supporting the Broncos, because boy, does Ricky like Colorado.

Denver wins, 27-24.

Washington @ San Francisco (-9)

The Redskins were hammered 27-7 by the visiting Buccaneers last week. Robert Griffin III threw 2 interceptions and was sacked 6 times.

"I'm not one to throw teammates under the Bus," Griffin said, "because they could easily be crushed by Jerome Bettis. Apparently, it's a big no-no to blame your teammates for poor play without accepting some yourself. How should I know that? I didn't major in 'accounting' at Baylor."

The 49ers intercepted Eli Manning five times in a hard-fought 16-10 win over the Giants at MetLife Stadium. San Fran is 6-4, three games behind the 9-1 Cardinals.

"Ahmad Brooks is unhappy that he lost playing time to Aldon Smith," Jim Harbaugh said, "so he took himself out of the Giants game. To his credit, he came to my office later in the week to discuss it. And that was with no prodding from me. In this organization, we find it advantageous when our players voluntary seek help."

San Francisco wins, 28-16.

Dallas @ NY Giants (+3)

Eli Manning threw 5 interceptions as the Giants lost a tough 16-10 matchup to the visiting 49ers.

"I single-handedly lost that game," Manning said, "with my right hand. Leave it to me to have two 'off' hands. Now you can see Tom Coughlin in the NFL's anti-domestic violence campaign, because he said 'no more.'"

The Cowboys are 7-3 and tied with the Eagles atop the NFC East. Dallas enjoyed a bye week after week 10's win over the Jaguars in London.

"The time off worked wonders on Tony Romo's back," Jason Garrett said. "He seems to be back to his old self, which happens to be one hit away from a back injury."

Dallas wins, 30-24.

Baltimore @ New Orleans (-3)

The Ravens are 6-4, hot on the tails of the AFC North-leading Bengals, who are 6-3-1. A Week 11 bye gives John Harbaugh's Ravens an additional week to prepare for the Saints.

"That last time I had two weeks to prepare for something," Harbaugh said, "I made Ray Rice sound like a hero."

The Saints were pounded 27-10 by the Bengals in the Superdome, losing for the second straight time at home. The Saints are 4-6, but are still tied for first place with the Falcons in the NFC South.

"We're not playing well at all," Sean Payton said. "Unlike CBS cameras in the Baltimore locker room, we're not rolling.

"Jimmy Graham complained last week about getting his right butt cheek groped in the stands after leaping in to celebrate a TD. He said he'd never make that leap again. I support Jimmy. He's never done anything half-assed."

New Orleans win, 30-29.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)

November 19, 2014

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 36

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kevin Harvick — Harvick's four-tire pit stop on a caution with 20 laps to go keyed his victory at Homestead, giving him the Sprint Cup championship. Harvick held off Ryan Newman to claim his first title.

"I'd like to thank everyone who believed in me," Harvick said. "I'd also like to thank Richard Childress. Do you believe me now, Richard?

"Sunday's race was for all the marbles. And that included the 'marbles' of Kurt Busch, because it seems he's lost his."

2. Ryan Newman — Newman started 21st on the grid and chased Kevin Harvick to the checkered flag, unable to get close enough to make a move. Newman finished second as Harvick celebrated his first championship.

"I was looking to become the first Sprint Cup champion without a win," Newman said. "That would have been a dream come true for me, and a nightmare for NASCAR."

3. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin, on old tires, lost the lead to Kevin Harvick with seven laps to go and finished seventh.

"Michael Jordan was in my pit box cheering me on," Hamlin said. "Seventh may be good enough for the Charlotte Hornets, but not for me. No one was more upset when I lost than Michael. No one was happier than his bookie."

4. Jeff Gordon — Gordon started on the pole at Homestead and led a race-high 161 laps on his way to a 10th-place finish at Homestead.

"Surprisingly," Gordon said, "there were no punches thrown. Apparently, Homestead isn't 'grounds' for fighting."

5. Joey Logano — Logano's chances at the Sprint Cup championship disintegrated when jack problems in the pits dropped him to 21st on the restart. He eventually finished 16th in the Ford EcoBoost 400.

"Just when we needed a 'pick-me-up,'" Logano said, "we suffered a 'letdown' in the pits."

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth won the Nationwide Ford EcoBoost 300 on Saturday and finished sixth in the Ford EcoBoost 400 on Sunday.

"Congratulations to Kevin Harvick," Kenseth said. "He wouldn't be holding that championship trophy had he not won the last two races. I'd say he certainly knows when to 'push.'"

7. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished third at Homestead, closing the books on an up-and-down year.

"It was an up-and-down year for us," Keselowski said, "as well as a 'left-and-right' year."

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 14th in the Ford EcoBoost 400, finishing the year with four wins.

"It was an historic day at Homestead," Earnhardt said. "The competition was intense, while Junior Nation was 'in tents.' Leave it to my fans to bring the moonshine to the 'Sunshine State.'"

9. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished ninth at Homestead, the top finisher among Hendrick Motorsports drivers.

"I wasn't able to win my seventh title," Johnson said, "but I can't be too upset. "The race was called the 'Ford EcoBoost 400. Let's change that 'Eco' to 'Echo,' because whenever and wherever you say my name, you hear it repeated five times."

10. Kyle Larson — Larson finished 13th in the Ford EcoBoost 400, wrapping up what will surely be a Rookie of the Year campaign.

"If I don't win that Rookie of the Year award," Larson said., "I'll be very unhappy. So unhappy that I could possibly go into 'ROY'd rage.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:05 PM | Comments (0)

November 18, 2014

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Good luck with that ear, Leslie Smith.

* The Broncos, Eagles, and Packers are all 5-0 at home. They're all 2-3 on the road.

* It's not just you, Cris. NBC's Cris Collinsworth suggested this week that the (il)legal contact zone for defenders be extended from 5 yards to 10. It's a good idea. That would encourage deep passes (which are exciting), and it could help to make passing records meaningful again. It's tough to get excited about records when a new one is set every week.

* The 49ers intercepted Eli Manning five times and only won 16-10. When you get five INTs, you should win by more than 6.

* Quiz time! Can you identify the rushing stats of (1) Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson and (2) the Oakland Raiders?

A: 630 yards, 2 touchdowns
B: 571 yards, 4 touchdowns

A is the Raiders and B is the quarterback. It's pretty close!

The AFC North, NFC South, and the Playoff Format

Everyone in the AFC North is at least two games over .500. Everyone in the NFC South is at least two games under .500. Someone from the NFC South is going to host a playoff game, and it's plausible that only one team from the AFC North will even make the playoffs.

There's some serious hand-wringing amongst fans right now, and proposals to prevent a 7-9 or 6-10 division champion from appearing in future postseasons. The various ideas include re-seeding the playoffs so division winners don't automatically host a playoff game, taking the top six teams in each conference regardless of division status, even taking the top 12 teams regardless of conference.

I don't think the NFL should radically change its postseason, and omitting any of the division winners is a radical change.

Bobby Thomson hit the "shot heard around the world" in 1951. The Giants weren't the best team in baseball that year, and they lost the World Series to the Yankees. But winning the National League, and winning it against the Brooklyn Dodgers, was important — this is one of the truly legendary moments in American sporting history. Competing every year against a small group of teams, knowing that a postseason spot is on the line, is part of the joy of sports and of rivalries. Beating rivals for your division's only playoff berth makes the sport more fun, enhances rivalries, and prevents the winner of a strong, balanced division from missing the postseason.

There are 10 teams in the AFC that are at least 6-4. Is it out of the question that the Patriots, Broncos, Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins, and Chargers could all finish with better records than anyone in the loaded AFC North? Could those four teams beat each up so much that none of them finish over 10-6? While you're trying to keep out Atlanta or New Orleans, you might just shut out the winner of the best division in football.

What does make sense is to seed the playoffs according to record, rather than automatically granting each division winner a home game. Winning the division gets you into the tournament, but you can still be a 16-seed. Once you're in, it's up to you to prove you belong.

2014 Week Eleven NFL Power Rankings

Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — Thirty-three first downs on Sunday night, including 9/12 third down conversions. The Patriots scored touchdowns on every drive of the second half, except the final possession on which they ran out the clock. The enduring image of this game, for me, wasn't Jonas Gray or Rob Gronkowski — it was Darrelle Revis. Not only did Revis excel in coverage, he knocked down a pulling tackle. Early in the second quarter, on a run to the left, Revis took out Colts LT Anthony Castonzo. Revis is listed at 5-11, 198 lbs, Castonzo at 6-7, 311. Revis blew up the running lane, knocked Castonzo on his butt, and the play went for a 3-yard loss.

2. Green Bay Packers [4] — Eighth team since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to go over 50 points twice in the regular season. Last year's Broncos are the only team since 1969 with three 50-point games, and there are only three post-merger teams to score 50+ in back-to-back weeks: the 2012 Seahawks, 2013 Broncos, and 2014 Packers. This is true: no one did it for 42 seasons, and now it's happened three years in a row.

3. Arizona Cardinals [6] — Six-game win streak, longest in the NFL. During the streak, they've held every opponent to 20 points or less. In fact, only one opponent all season has scored over 20 points against Arizona (Broncos, 41-20 in Week 5).

4. Kansas City Chiefs [3] — Undefeated since the bye. The stats from their win over Seattle are very strange. The Seahawks had substantial advantages in offensive yardage (372-298), first downs (25-20), and third down percentage (42%-33%). The Seahawks rushed for more yards, they passed for more yards, and they were +2 in turnovers. They won time of possession by almost 12 minutes. What happened (besides Jamaal Charles)?

Early in the fourth quarter, Kansas City scored a go-ahead touchdown, making it 20-16. On the next possession, Seattle drove to the KC 2 but turned it over on downs. The Chiefs went three-and-out and Seattle got the ball back in Chiefs territory. Following a replay that negated first down, Seattle went for it on 4th-and-1 from the 36 and again the Chiefs stopped them. Kansas City went three-and-out again, but Seattle burned all its timeouts. Great special teams coverage pinned the Seahawks deep, and they took the ball at their own 4 with 2:47 to play. They picked up a first down, then Dontari Poe sacked Russell Wilson, setting up 3rd-and-18. Out of timeouts and down to 1:18, the Seahawks went for it on 4th-and-18, and for the third straight possession Kansas City stopped them on fourth down. Pretty clutch defense, in a game where their own passing offense was non-existent (108 yards).

5. Indianapolis Colts [5] — New England converted 11 of 18 third downs, rushed for 234 yards, and scored 6 rushing TDs. You can't fault anyone for game-planning around Tom Brady, but the Colts were clearly caught off-guard by New England's run game.

Oh, sorry. That's not this week's summary, it's what I wrote in January, when the Patriots beat Indianapolis 43-22 in a divisional playoff game. Apparently the Colts learned nothing from that experience, because Jonas Gray did the same thing to them (199 yards, 4 TDs) that LeGarrette Blount did a matter of months ago (166 yards, 4 TDs). If the coaching staff needed one game-plan for Week 11, it was how they would stop the run. You knew this matchup was coming; what have you been doing for the last 10 months?!

The Colts had a bye last week. With two weeks to prepare, it never occurred to them that the Patriots might test their not-improved-at-all run defense?

6. Denver Broncos [2] — This ranking might be too high. They've lost two of their last three, both by more than two touchdowns, and several key players left this week's game with injuries. Emmanuel Sanders got a concussion, on one of the nastiest hits I've ever seen, and Julius Thomas has an ankle sprain; it's not a major injury, but his status going forward is not yet clear.

7. Miami Dolphins [10] — Won four of their last five, with the loss a last-minute heartbreaker at Detroit. All the wins were by double-digits, including a 37-0 beatdown of the 6-4 Chargers.

8. Detroit Lions [8] — Lead the league in fewest yards allowed (290.3/gm) and fewest points allowed (15.6/gm). They have a very good defense. But not a great one. Here are the last five teams to lead the league in both total defense and scoring defense:

2004 PIT: 258 ypg, 15.7 ppg
2006 BAL: 264 ypg, 12.6 ppg
2008 PIT: 237 ypg, 13.9 ppg
2009 NYJ: 252 ypg, 14.8 ppg
2013 SEA: 274 ypg, 14.4 ppg

The Lions have allowed by far the most yardage, and are essentially tied for most points. They also don't force turnovers. Detroit is tied for 14th in the NFL in takeaways (17); all the teams above ranked in the top 10, except the '04 Steelers, who were 11th. Seattle led the league last season (39). The list of teams that have led the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense is mostly a list of the best defenses of all time — only 13 teams since the merger, including the 1972 Dolphins, 1976 Steelers, 1985 Bears, 2002 Buccaneers ... the Lions are probably the best defensive team in the NFL right now, but they're not of that historical caliber.

9. Dallas Cowboys [9] — DeMarco Murray's insane workload has eased a little, with three straight games of 19 carries. He still has 24% more rush attempts (244) than second-place LeSean McCoy (196), and Murray leads the league in what Jason Lisk identified as increased risk games (25+ att); Murray has four and no one else has more than two. Murray also had two games with 24 rush attempts. He's on pace for 390 rushes, which seems positively reasonable compared to his early pace, but remains dangerously high. There have been 10 seasons in which a player carried 390 times or more:

Eric Dickerson, 1983: Rookie season. Went on to a Hall of Fame career.

James Wilder, 1984: Played six more seasons. No obvious ill effects.

Gerald Riggs, 1985: His best season, but no obvious ill effects.

Eric Dickerson, 1986: Had two more excellent seasons, 1987-88.

Barry Foster, 1992: Never healthy again. Retired two years later.

Jamal Anderson, 1998: Injured the next season; never the same.

Terrell Davis, 1998: Injured the next season; never the same.

Eddie George, 2000: Never the same. 1996-2000: 6,874 yds, 3.9 avg, 42 TD. 2001-04: 3,567 yds, 3.2 avg, 26 TD. Maybe it was just the Madden Curse.

Ricky Williams, 2003: Retired following the season. 334 carries in the next five years combined.

Larry Johnson, 2006: Couldn't stay healthy and played poorly for the rest of his career.

I would posit that running backs take a worse beating now than from 1983-86, and furthermore that there's no reason to believe Murray is as durable as Eric Dickerson. Over the last quarter-century, every running back with at least 370 carries has declined the following season, and never returned to his previous level of play, or anything near it. I'm not saying Murray can't finish out this season, but I understand why the Cowboys are planning to use the franchise tag on Dez Bryant instead of Murray, and I wouldn't use a 2015 top draft pick on Murray in fantasy.

10. Philadelphia Eagles [7] — FOX held the broadcasting rights to both Packers/Eagles and Cardinals/Lions. I get making Green Bay and Philly the national game, because those are marquee teams with national followings, and both are having good seasons. But this was a blowout before halftime. The Cardinals and Lions had the two best records in the NFC, and that game was competitive throughout. Why not switch to the good game?

11. Pittsburgh Steelers [11] — Sloppy first half had them trailing the lowly Titans, 17-13. Le'Veon Bell took over in the second half, rushing 18 times for 132 yards and a touchdown. Bell has been sensational this season, and never more than on Monday night, but why grind him down with 33 carries and keep LeGarrette Blount on the bench? You don't want to risk injury by overusing a player as valuable as Bell.

12. Baltimore Ravens [12] — Who needs Ray Rice? Justin Forsett has led all rushers in seven of their 10 games, including the last five in a row, and he has more long runs (20+ yards) than anyone but DeMarco Murray.

13. Seattle Seahawks [15] — Pro Bowl center Max Unger, who missed a month with a foot injury and returned in Week 10, is out another 3-4 weeks with a high-ankle sprain. Jay Glazer stated three weeks ago, "Marshawn Lynch will not be a Seattle Seahawk next year." That seems increasingly likely after Lynch remained on the field at halftime, rather than returning to the locker room with his team, and called the kettle black made comments to the media about Seattle's front office and his future with the team.

14. Buffalo Bills [13] — During the Thursday night game, Phil Simms compared Sammy Watkins and this year's rookie WR class to the famous QB class of 1983. A better comparison is the wide receiver class of 1996, which included Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Keyshawn Johnson, Muhsin Muhammad, Eric Moulds, Joe Horn, Amani Toomer, and Terry Glenn, among others.

15. St. Louis Rams [18] — Triumphant return for Shaun Hill, but when you hold a Peyton Manning offense to 7 points, you won with defense. The Rams defensed 12 passes against Denver, including three by T.J. McDonald, and interceptions by Alec Ogletree and Trumaine Johnson.

16. San Francisco 49ers [16] — NaVorro Bowman is expected to resume practice this week, after missing the first 10 games rehabbing a knee injury. Rookie Chris Borland (Wisconsin) has excelled in the absence of his all-pro teammates, Patrick Willis and Bowman. Borland leads San Francisco in tackles, and this week he just ruined the Giants: 8 tackles, including 2 for a loss, plus two INTs and a deflection, including the game-clinching interception.

The NFL's Ian Rapoport reported that Ahmad Brooks took himself out of the game to pout about his playing time. Man, how do you just refuse to play? That's the kind of guy who deserves Richie Incognito as a teammate.

17. New Orleans Saints [14] — Last season, the Saints and Bengals had identical records: 8-0 at home, 3-5 on the road. New Orleans went 23 months without a home loss, stretching from December 2012 to this month, but has now lost two in a row at home, including an overtime loss to a tough 49ers team, but also a comfortable 27-10 victory by an opponent who struggles on the road.

18. Houston Texans [20] — Major props to former Patriots quarterback Ryan Mallett ... when asked about this week's victory in his first-ever NFL start, he answered, "We got the win but now we're on to Cincinnati."

19. Cleveland Browns [17] — Brian Hoyer and his Texans counterpart Mallett both completed 20 passes. But Hoyer threw the ball 50 times and Mallett only 30. Linebacker Karlos Dansby reportedly has a sprained MCL and is likely to miss at least a month — most or all of the remaining season.

20. Cincinnati Bengals [21] — I guess A.J. Green's toe is fine now.

21. San Diego Chargers [19] — Haven't beaten anyone but the 0-10 Raiders in a month and a half (Oct 5, Week 5). In the first quarter, Mike Scifres came onto the field for his second punt of the afternoon. Spero Dedes called it for CBS: "Here's Mike Scifres, eight punts inside the 10 this season, and is tied for the NFL lead." The ball bounced straight up at the 6-yard line, allowing Dedes to continue, "And once again he pins it inside the 10, he has been masterful this season."

Scifres later had punts downed at the 4-yard line, the 8-yard line, and the 2-yard line. When his last punt went 48 yards to the Oakland 12-yard line, Dedes marveled, "Scifres with another one inside the 15. He's got our vote for the MVP of this game." Solomon Wilcots concurred, "It's almost no fair to Derek Carr. Scifres is just gonna keep him backed up." Scifres had a similar performance in a January 2009 playoff win. When has anyone ever suggested that Shane Lechler or Andy Lee might be the MVP of a game? Scifres is the best punter of this generation, and it's not close.

22. Atlanta Falcons [28] — I don't know how anyone can argue that special teams don't matter, or that specialists aren't impact players. The Falcons won 19-17 this week, with their kicker (Matt Bryant) going 4-for-4, and Carolina's Graham Gano going 1-for-3. Gano attempted tougher kicks, so it's not a totally fair comparison, but one miss for Bryant or one more between the uprights for Gano, and it's a different game.

Also, Atlanta's Eric Weems was credited with 4 special teams tackles and 2 assists. Weems made the tackle on every Carolina punt return, holding Philly Brown to 4 returns for 16 yards. That's a hell of an afternoon for one of the downfield wackos. Weems is having a very nice season. He should probably go to the Pro Bowl.

23. New York Jets [23] — About once a year, my mom asks me if there are Jets fans; she seems pretty convinced that the Giants are the "real" New York team. I always assure her that New York is large enough to support more than one team, but I've never gotten around to telling her that even Fireman Ed quit a couple years ago.

24. Minnesota Vikings [24] — They ran only 46 offensive plays, compared to 74 for Chicago. The Vikings went 2/11 (18%) on third downs; the Bears were 10/17 (59%).

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — Rookie WR Mike Evans had a huge game, obviously (7 rec, 209 yds, 2 TD), his third straight game with at least 7 catches, 120 yards, and a touchdown. But when you hold the other team to 7 points, some credit has to go the defense, too. Gerald McCoy is incredibly disruptive, one of the best defensive tackles in football.

26. Washington [22] — Robert Griffin III has not played well since returning from injury. He's tentative, he's not seeing the field well, and he's too willing to take sacks — this was his second week in a row getting dropped at least five times. Griffin told the Washington Post, "All of the sacks are on me," which is not entirely true, but he's holding the ball much too long. He doesn't move well within the pocket, and he's waiting for contact before trying to escape and roll outside.

Griffin did not look like this when he was being coached by Mike and Kyle Shanahan. He looks like he's trying to be something he's not: a pocket passer. Griffin looks uncomfortable in the pocket. He's indecisive, looks like he's overthinking and trying too hard not to make a mistake, and I'm not sure he can see over the linemen. The team should design boots and roll-outs for RG3. He's most dangerous when he threatens an opponent with his legs. Put him in space, where he can escape pass rushers and force the rest of the defense to abandon their assignments or let him run. The rationale for keeping Griffin in the pocket is that he'll get hurt if he's running, but he's going to get hurt if he's being sacked five times a game, too, and at least if he's running he might play well.

I don't understand how you get a QB like Robert Griffin or Cam Newton, who's been a successful football player his whole life, and then tell him to play differently. Let these guys do what they do.

27. Chicago Bears [26] — I ranked them too high last week. The Bears were humiliated in two of their last three games. Most embarrassing losses of the 2014 NFL season:

1. Week 3: Falcons 56, Buccaneers 14
488 yards to 217; 35-0 at halftime

2. Week 10: Packers 55, Bears 14
451 yards to 311; 42-0 at halftime

3. Week 6: Ravens 48, Buccaneers 17
475 yards to 264; 38-0 at halftime

4. Week 9: Dolphins 37, Chargers 0
441 yards to 178; 20-0 at halftime

5. Week 5: Chargers 31, Jets 0
439 yards to 151; 21-0 at halftime

6. Week 2: Washington 41, Jacksonville 10
449 yards to 148; 21-7 at halftime

7. Week 8: Patriots 51, Bears 23
487 yards to 384; 38-7 at halftime

8. Week 11: Packers 53, Eagles 20
475 yards to 429; 30-6 at halftime

9. Week 10: Eagles 45, Panthers 21
365 yards to 317; 31-7 at halftime

10. Week 6: Eagles 27, Giants 0
448 yards to 253; 20-0 at halftime

28. New York Giants [27] — Marshall Faulk had this to say on NFL Network: "That secondary for the Giants, for real, I'd play the scout team before I'd play them cats, man."

29. Tennessee Titans [29] — So, I think maybe they should work on their run defense.

30. Carolina Panthers [25] — Smart play by rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who got wrapped up in bounds and lateralled to Greg Olsen, who stepped out to stop the clock with :01 left and set up a potential game-winning field goal. The kick missed, though, and Carolina is tied with the Giants for the second-longest losing streak in the NFL, 5 straight. Oakland, 0-10, obviously has the longest active streak.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [30] — Since cutting David Garrard, the Jaguars are 12-46 (.207). Here are my weekly power rankings for the Jaguars, from preseason of 2011 to present: 20, 22, 27, 31, 31, 31, 28, 26, 24, 24, 22, 25, 25, 29, 25, 27, 30, 27; 30, 31, 32, 31, 31, 32, 32, 32, 31, 31, 32, 29, 23, 26, 28, 31, 31, 31; 31, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, **, **, **, **, **, **; 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 31, 31, 30, 30, 31...

** In 2013, I didn't rank all 32 teams, only the top 10 and the bottom three. From Weeks 12-17, Jacksonville no longer appeared on either list, so there are no entries for those weeks. It's safe to assume they're in the mid-to-high 20s.

32. Oakland Raiders [32] — It has been a calendar year since their last win (Nov. 17, 2013, 28-23 at HOU), and they have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:52 PM | Comments (0)

November 17, 2014

A Nice Problem to Have

John Calipari has a problem: his team is troublingly talented.

Top-ranked Kentucky opened its season along with most of the major college basketball world Friday night, routing Grand Canyon, 85–45. The squad, roundly nominated as potentially one of the sport's best teams ever, displayed a dazzling mix of returning players and its annual shipment of elite freshman.

Clearly, this looks like the deepest team Calipari has ever fielded.

For all of the Marcus Cambys, Derek Roses, John Walls, and Anthony Davises Calipari has shepherded through college hoops, there has always been a noticeable drop-off on his rosters. Each year's new wave of top prospects essentially replaces the previous year's handful of NBA-bound stars, but that annual rotation only accounts for a third of the team. Many of Calipari's rosters look like a teenager's closet, with a handful of beloved pieces being frequently worn and eventually replaced with new trendy pieces while several misfitting or inherited pieces hang quietly around the periphery.

But something is different this year. As Calipari has established Lexington as the recruiting capital of the college basketball world to a degree never seen before, he has accumulated a small inventory of rotation-quality players who stayed for more than a year for various reasons. Where previous rosters relied solely on star freshmen to drive them and accepted any contribution from the upperclassmen as frosting, this team returned key contributors like Andrew and Aaron Harrison, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley-Stein. With the traditional top-rated recruiting class filling around them, Calipari has an unprecedented glut of talent.

And therein lies the problem.

Part of the Calipari/Kentucky value proposition is the implied availability of opportunity. Sure, all schools can find playing time for a blue chipper or two, but at Kentucky, the rate of change means there are minutes for half-a-dozen new players annually. To players two or three years from graduating into college basketball, this is a huge marketing advantage. While Duke, Kansas, or Michigan State might have a wall of juniors and seniors to overcome in any given year, Kentucky expects heavy minutes out of its freshmen.

But maybe John Calipari has a solution: Instead of coaching one elite team, he's fielding two.

In the win Friday, Kentucky used a platoon system for much of the game. In the same way that hockey teams change lines, Calipari alternated between two teams of five. On his first squad, Calipari combined the Harrisons, Alex Poythress, Willie Cauley-Stein, and freshman Karl-Anthony Towns. This is an elite starting lineup, and traditionally, a few supporting role players would find niches to round out a punishing seven- or eight-man rotation.

Instead, Calipari has grouped his bench into a second squad of freshmen Tyler Ulis, Devin Booker, and Trey Lyles, and sophomores Marcus Lee and Dakari Johnson. Each of those five could easily start for, and probably lead, the majority of the top 25.

But beyond keeping UK attractive to future recruits, Calipari's platoon's will serve this season's goals. The Cats will likely only be legitimately challenged a handful of times this year, and overconfidence and lethargy have to be major concerns.

So given an expected lack of external competition, Calipari has found a way to manufacture it internally. Rather than let a truly talented young player languish and sour as the ninth or tenth man on this squad, Kentucky will pit its own players against each other to stay sharp. Some of this team's toughest days will almost certainly be in practice against each other.

In reality, nobody expects Calipari to rigidly stick to the platoons. Even in Friday's cruise over Grand Canyon, Calipari began mixing the platoons, foreshadowing a point later in the season when he will likely trim his rotation during the late stages of the Wildcats' toughest games.

Other coaches have used five-man substitutions in the past. Dean Smith most notably did it at North Carolina in the 1970s, inserting his "Blue Team" of high-effort players into games when the Tar Heels needed a hustle play or two to boost the regulars' energy. Other coaches who rely more on tested systems over individual talent may use mass substitutions to create matchup confusion or keep their starters fresh. But nobody has tried this with so much talent.

The courage to try new things is the mark of greatness. Rather than worship one's own genius, the true innovators strive for more.

Historically, this UK squad will be judged on whether it wins the tournament and how dominant it is over the course of the season. This team may go down as one of college basketball's greatest, or it may just be a really good team that faced unreasonable expectations.

Change is especially frightening from the top of the mountain. With so much recent success and this week's announcements of even more top-shelf signings, Calipari could easily have stuck to a traditional rotation. It takes significant courage to try something new in the name of being even better.

Oh, and ironclad job security and a continuous stream of lottery picks help, too.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:21 AM | Comments (0)

November 13, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 11

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Buffalo @ Miami (-5)

The winner of Thursday night's Bills/Dolphins game takes over sole possession of second place in the AFC East. After both suffered losses last week, Buffalo and Miami are 5-4, two games behind the Patriots.

"Despite the loss in Detroit," Joe Philbin said, "I think we showed a lot of heart, especially Ryan Tannehill. As far as potential, the sky's the limit for Ryan, unless, of course, it's indoors, then there's definitely a 'ceiling.'"

The Bills squandered a 13-3 fourth quarter lead and lost 17-13 to the Chiefs.

"That's right," Doug Marrone said. "We got 'caught from behind.' And that brings me to Sammy Watkins. Besides a Jet cornerback, one thing he can't outrun is a comparison to Leon Lett. What Sammy needs to understand is celebrating before you reach the end zone can be the difference in the game, whether that be a 43-23 Bills win, or a 52-17 Bills loss. Don Beebe would appreciate your hustle, and O.J. Simpson would appreciate a 'clean getaway.'

"Leodis McKelvin guaranteed a victory over the Dolphins. I'm sure that's going to rile the Miami locker room. In fact, Cameron Wake angrily replied to the guarantee by saying, "This means 'war-ranty.'"

Miami wins, 19-16.

Minnesota @ Chicago (-3½)

The Vikings exit their bye week at 4-5 in the NFC North, and now face a Chicago team desperate for a win. The Vikes received some good news from the league; Adrian Peterson is likely eligible to return as soon as Week 12.

"It could be an early Christmas in Minnesota," Mike Zimmer said. "I think part of the agreement is that Adrian is not allowed near a tree. Anyway, he's grateful the NFL showed him a little leniency. Apparently, begging for mercy works, sometimes."

The Bears were demolished, 45-14, by the Packers at Lambeau Field last week. Green Bay led 42-0 at the half, and the Bears were left demoralized.

"It was over by halftime," Marc Trestman said. "I feared 'it' was going to be my job, not the game. That's a 'Great Chicago Fire' that would have been remembered fondly in the city.

"I'm a former coach in the Canadian Football League, so I'm quite familiar coaching a team of players not talented enough to play in the NFL. I didn't coach is Saskatchewan, but this season's been a rough ride' nonetheless."

Chicago wins, 27-21.

Houston @ Cleveland (-3)

The Browns hammered the Bengals 24-3 in Cincinnati last Thursday, holding Andy Dalton to only 86 yards passing. The win put the Browns in first place in the AFC North a 6-3.

"Brian Hoyer continues to impress," Mike Pettine said. "He's not flashy. He doesn't hang with celebrities. He doesn't have any endorsement deals. In other words, he's no Johnny Manziel, which, ironically, is the reason we drafted Manziel.

"Against the Bengals, Brian was 15-of-23 for 198 yards. Think about that for a minute. He completed 15 passes in a game. That's 15 more than Kyrie Irving.

"Jeremy Hill still thinks the Bengals are a better team. Does the Hill have eyes? Can he see a scoreboard? Does he know something everyone else doesn't? I know he has carnal knowledge, but does he have some other kind of knowledge?"

The 4-5 Texans had a Week 10 bye, and Bill O'Brian decided to make a change at quarterback. Ryan Mallett will start over Ryan Fitzpatrick.

"It was a tough decision," Bill O'Brien said. "But that's my job — making the tough decisions. And speaking of 'tough decisions,' I've decided that Jadeveon Clowney is not tough. He attended the University Of South Carolina for three years. That doesn't make him a true Gamecock; it does, apparently, make him 'mostly chicken.'

"I coached Mallett while in New England, so he's familiar with my scheme. Mallet's known for having a rocket arm. Heretofore, we've left 'strong-arming' duties up to J.J. Watt."

Cleveland wins, 24-17.

Seattle @ Kansas City (-1½)

The Seahawks whipped the Giants 38-17 last week, stifling Eli Manning and his youthful cohorts. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 140 yards and 4 touchdowns as Seattle improved to 6-3.

"Marshawn was in full 'Beast Mode,'" Pete Carroll said. "He was a man among Giants. I'm not sure what's harder: tackling him, or interviewing him. He certainly doesn't like to be questioned, by reporters or police.

"Lynch is set for a big pay day in 2015. He can certainly taste the 'green' in the rainbow. We'll have a tough decision this offseason, whether to pay Marshawn or let him walk in free agency. Personally, I have no problem throwing money at a running back, or his family."

The Chiefs scored 2 touchdowns in the span of four minutes in the fourth quarter last week, powering them to a 17-13 win on the road at Buffalo.

"We were down 13-3," Andy Reid said. "A ten-point deficit is no reason to panic. Now, a 28-point lead is a different story.

"We have our own superstar running back in Jamaal Charles. Like Lynch, he sometimes gets in a zone in which he's unstoppable. In honor of a former Chiefs great, we like to call that 'Priest Mode.'"

Seattle win, 21-18.

Atlanta @ Carolina (-2)

The Falcons snapped a five-game losing streak, beating the Buccaneers in Tampa 27-17. Atlanta was out-gained by the Bucs, but gutted out the win to go to 3-6 in the NFC South, just one game out of the division lead.

"That's our first win since September 18th," Ryan said. "That's almost two months between wins. At that rate, we won't win again until well in December. At that rate, we may be leading the NFC South division at that time."

The Panthers were humiliated 45-21 by the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Cam Newton threw three interceptions and was sacked 9 times as Carolina's offensive line struggled.

"Cam took way too many hits," Ron Rivera said. "Call it a 'Powerbeat-ing,' but it wasn't from Dre. Cam needs to be more cautious. A quarterback who takes that much punishment is bound to end up much like a stolen laptop computer tossed out of a dorm room window — broken.

"But I think I have a solution. It's called a 'diversion program' in which Cam makes a concerted effort to avoid rushers. I've been adamant that Cam is not injured. If you see him grimace in pain, it's not as a result of an injury, it's as a result of his throws."

With a win at Carolina and a Saints loss to the Bengals, the Falcons would take over first place in the division. But there's a chill in the air in Charlotte, accompanied by a mild breeze, which is more than enough to topple the Falcons defense.

The Panthers get their rushing attack in gear, led by Newton, who scrambles for 65 yards and throws 2 touchdown passes.

Carolina wins, 27-23.

Cincinnati @ New Orleans (-7½)

The Saints lost in overtime to the 49ers 27-24, losing for the first time at home this season. The loss dropped New Orleans to 4-5 and left them in a tie with Carolina atop the NFC South.

"There was a questionable offensive pass interference call on Jimmy Graham that may have cost us the game," Sean Payton said. "It looked like a flop to me. As it was, we ended up with 'PI' in our face. In most cases, a Saint knocking an opposing player to the ground is rewarded, not penalized.

"I'm sure the Bengals will be motivated to play better. Our plan on defense is to make Andy Dalton beat us. The question is, do we force him to do what he does best, or let him do what he does best?"

The Bengals were pounded 24-3 by the visiting Browns on Thursday Night Football last week. Andy Dalton completed only 10-of-33 passes and threw 3 interceptions.

"Andy really picked a fine time to lay an egg," Marvin Lewis said. "After all, the whole state of Ohio was watching. That is, all of Ohio except Canton.

"We signed Andy to a contract extension in August. I hear a lot of fans want me to do the same. Oh, my mistake. I must have read that wrong. They just want me to resign."

New Orleans wins, 31-26.

Tampa Bay @ Washington (-7½)

The Redskins emerge from there bye week coming off a 29-26 road loss at Minnesota in Week 9. Robert Griffin III was a little rusty in his return, but expects to be better with an extra week of practice.

"I've said it before," Griffin said, "and I'll say it again: 'this is my team.' But that doesn't necessarily make me our leader. As I was telling DeSean Jackson, I'm just 'one of the gang.'

"Actually, DeSean stood up and supported me in a team meeting. That meant a lot to me. Usually, when a teammate stands behind me, he's mocking me, or making fun of my excellent grammar, or calling me a 'cornball brother.'

"As for the Buccaneers, we feel very confident we'll beat them. Despite their nickname, there's very little pirate-like about the Buccaneers. I've seen more pirating on Napster. If I was a pirate, I'd damn sure be complaining about the nickname."

The Bucs lost to the Falcons, 27-17, falling to 1-8 on the season.

"Losing is hard to swallow," Lovie Smith said. "Just ask Josh McCown. He was crying at his locker after the game. That takes a lot of guts, knowing not only that doing so might get you labeled 'soft,' but that a spoof video for s Smokey Robinson And The Miracles song called 'The Tears of McCown' would be hitting the internet in a matter of minutes.

"But crying can be liberating. It can also be soothing. I cry myself to sleep every night. Much like McCown, I sleep like a baby."

Washington wins, 27-13.

Denver @ St. Louis (+9)

The Broncos bounced back from week 9's 41-23 loss at New England with a 41-17 win over the Raiders at O.Co Stadium. Peyton Manning threw for 340 yards and 5 touchdowns as Denver improved to 7-2.

"The Raiders are about as non-American as a team can be," Manning said. "By that, I mean the Raiders are not the Patriots. And the Rams are not the Raiders, nor are they the Patriots. They fall somewhere in between, usually from three to seven if you're talking about wins.

"As for Sunday in St. Louis, it's important for us to start strong. That starts with the coin toss. I'm going to call 'tails' and wait for the referee to flip the coin. By the time it lands, I should have the Rams scheme figured out."

The Rams held a 14-10 lead at Arizona before a late collapse led to a 31-14 defeat. After a good start, Austin Davis finished the day with three turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns.

"Austin was in diapers when Manning was a rookie," Jeff Fisher said. "After his performance at Arizona, he apparently needs 'changing.' We'll be going with Shaun Hill at quarterback.

"Defensively, I think it's important to disrupt Manning's concentration. I'm not sure our defense can do that. But that doesn't mean we can't flash pictures on the JumboTron to upset Peyton. Like, for example, a Massachusetts snowflake, or Mike Vanderjagt, or Ty Law, or Domino's Pizza, or Eli's two Super Bowl rings, or Steve Spurrier. You get the picture."

Manning is sharp from the start, and throws a 55-yard completion to Emmanuel Sanders on the game's first play from scrimmage. Manning finishes with 289 yards passing and 4 touchdowns.

Denver wins, 34-21.

San Francisco @ NY Giants (+4)

The Giants hung with the Seahawks for a half, holding a 17-14 lead at the break before a Seattle onslaught sent the G-Men home with a 38-17 defeat. Marshawn Lynch powered for 140 yards and 4 touchdowns.

"Eli Manning gave Lynch his Citizen Eco-Drive watch," Tom Coughlin said, "because Lynch was 'unstoppable.'

"I hear the 49ers are buzzing about the return of Aldon Smith. It takes a strong man to return to the field after such problems. Luckily, Aldon displays an abundance of liquid courage."

The 49ers upset the Saints 27-24 in overtime last week, keyed by a 51-yard pass on fourth down from Colin Kaepernick to Michael Crabtree.

"Judging from my experience and the situation," Kaepernick said, "I just knew Crabtree would be open. Just call it 'offensive pass inference.' That's not the same thing as 'offensive pass interference.' Some say Perrish Cox flopped on that call. No way. Perrish is a stand-up guy. He'd never do anything wrong. He's a saint.

"Some say I don't know when to throw the ball away. That may be true. But I do know when to throw the ball 'a ways.'"

San Francisco wins, 26-16.

Oakland @ San Diego (-10)

The Chargers bye week came at an opportune time, after three straight losses that dropped Mike McCoy's team from 5-1 to 5-4.

"There's nothing like a 'bye' week to try to say 'hello' to a running game," Mike McCoy said. "Luckily, Ryan Mathews is back from an MCL sprain. That should help the running game, and provide Phillip Rivers with an outlet. And trust me, after three straight losses, Phillip needs an outlet other than his usual tirades."

The home-standing Raiders lost to Peyton Manning and the Broncos 41-17 last week. The loss kept Oakland winless at 0-9.

"We're on pace to go 0-16," Tony Sparano said. "In fact, we have been all year. So, you've got to like our consistency.

"There are rumors we may be moving to San Antonio. That could very well be a 'Spur-ious' claim. If our 32nd-ranked rushing attack responded to that rumor, they'd certainly reply 'We're not going anywhere.'"

San Diego wins, 30-17.

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (-5)

In his first start as an Eagle, Mark Sanchez led the Eagles to a dominating 38-7 win over the Panthers. Sanchez passed for 332 yards and 2 touchdowns, both to Jordan Matthews, while the Philly defense forced 5 turnovers and sacked Cam Newton 9 times.

"Chip Kelly's innovation has rendered conventional offenses obsolete, expendable, and replaceable," Sanchez said. "And I've done the same to Nick Foles.

"Former teammate Braylon Edwards said I was 'babied' by the Jets. Braylon is an idiot, and that's the unadulterated truth."

The Packers demolished the Bears, 45-14, as Aaron Rodgers threw 6 first-half touchdowns. Rodgers tied Daryle Lamonica's record of 6 TDs in a half, set in 1969 with the Oakland Raiders.

"They called Lamonica the 'Mad Bomber,'" Rodgers said. "He was a terror for opposing defenses. Now he's a terror for Homeland Security.

"It just got even windier in the 'Windy City.' Even the coverage is blown. I hear there's a movie out called 'Big Hero 6.' I can't tell you what it's about. I can tell you what it's not about — Jay Cutler. Or is it? The movie appears to be about a white, spineless creature whose expression never changes."

Green Bay wins, 31-28.

Detroit @ Arizona (-2)

The Cardinals pulled away late, turning a 14-10 deficit into a 31-14 win over the Cardinals. The win was a costly one, as Carson Palmer was lost for the year with a torn ACL.

"This time," Arians said, "it was the doctor who said Carson wouldn't be playing for a team. Talk about bad timing. No, not Carson getting injured before a game that could determine home field in the playoffs, but Carson signing a contract extension just days earlier."

The Lions beat the Dolphins, 20-16, winning on Matthew Stafford's touchdown pass to Theo Riddick with 29 seconds left. Detroit improved to 7-2, and now heads to Glendale to face the 8-1 Cardinals.

"Calvin Johnson is back and better than ever," Stafford said. "He's even got a new Zaxby's commercial. And believe you me, if anyone knows tender leg meat, it's Calvin.

"Megatron's matchup with Patrick Peterson should be epic. Calvin is arguably the NFL's most talented receiver, and likewise, Peterson is arguably the league's most talented cornerback.

Detroit wins, 17-16.

New England @ Indianapolis (-2½)

After losing to the Chiefs in Week 4, the Patriots have won five in a row, and a Week 10 bye afforded them extra time to prepare for the Colts. New England is 7-2 and leads the AFC East by two games over the Bills and Dolphins.

"I've stated that there are things Andrew Luck does that I wish I could do," Brady said. "And I'm sure there are things I do that Andrew wishes he could, like my wife.

"Mike Vrabel had his three Super Bowl rings stolen. Unlike Robert Kraft's, Mike wasn't wearing his when it happened."

Adam Vinatieri kicks a 51-yard field goal as time expires, giving the Colts a 34-31 win.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (+6)

After 12 touchdowns in his last two games, Ben Roethlisberger cooled considerably last week in a 20-13 loss to the Jets. Roethlisberger threw for 343 yards, but only 1 TD, an 80-yard bomb to Martavis Bryant with 1:16 to go.

"That's what you call going from the penthouse to the outhouse," Roethlisberger said. "To me, that's a date that ends well.

"Justin Bieber showed up at our bible study on Saturday. If someone would have asked us 'WWJD?', the last thing we would have answered was 'Show up at the Steelers chapel.' The first thing we would have answered would have been 'egged Heinz Field and organized an illegal street race on Art Rooney Avenue."

The Titans managed only 210 yards of total offense in a 21-7 loss to the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore sack Zach Mettenberger five times and intercepted him once.

"One thing's for sure," Ken Whisenhunt said, "Zach didn't take any selfies. That doesn't mean he's not a poser. He's pretending to be an NFL-level quarterback. Unfortunately, Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst are doing the same thing."

Le'Veon Bell rushes for 116 yards and scores once on the ground and once through the air.

Steelers win, 31-16.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:56 PM | Comments (0)

November 12, 2014

Bad Teams Have Two Months to Shape Up

Riddled with injuries, the Columbus Blue Jackets have every reason and excuse to throw in the towel during this young season. From the career-ending condition for Nathan Horton to losing starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky for several weeks, the walking wounded goes up and down the lineup, from top line to depth player. Even their fans, who'd seen just about the worst kind of luck over the franchise's existence, could probably give the team a pass on this.

However, despite the horrendous losing streak that killed off a strong start, the Blue Jackets aren't out of this yet. Neither are the Carolina Hurricanes, who went winless in October, or the Buffalo Sabres, who are the Buffalo Sabres.

No team is out of it. And no team will be out of it until around the turn of the calendar year. That's the point when teams far below .500 can throw in the towel (or if you want to think about positively, throw their hat in the Connor McDavid derby). Before then, though, these aren't problems that can't be fixed by a few strong stretches of play.

Let's take the Blue Jackets as an example. With Bobrovsky scheduling a return sooner rather than later, let's assume the Jackets grit out a short stretch of going .500 over the next two weeks or so. From mid-November through the rest of the year, a handful of winning streaks could easily right the ship. It doesn't vault them into a playoff spot, but it sets the foundation for the team to show what they can really do when they have a full roster (without Horton, who is done barring a miracle).

That's the beauty of the unofficial deadline of New Year's Day. As long as you're close to .500 around that time, you're still in it. The NHL season is filled with ups and downs for every team, and a team that's holding the division lead on January 1 can go down in flames by the time April rolls around if the right combination of injuries and bad luck catch up to them. On the flip side, a .500 team has 3+ months to put together a few really strong stretches where they can leapfrog over the competition.

That does mean that a team has to show some signs of life in November and December. At the end of the season, teams are battling each other for positioning but during the early stages, they're simply battling themselves. There's no scoreboard watching going on because it's a battle for chemistry, coaching systems, bounces, and streaks. In short, it's a season in itself, the unofficial pre-cursor round to the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Columbus, Carolina, Buffalo, Edmonton, Dallas — some of these teams have the talent but have lacked the tools; in other cases, some of them are a frustration question mark of bad decisions and worse luck. By the time we celebrate Christmas and look toward the Winder Classic, there's a good chance that about half of these teams will have righted the ship while the other half will have drifted towards the draft lottery. As it stands now, there's no need for loyal fans to give up — unless, of course, they want their team to get the first-overall pick. Then, by all means, start cheering for losses.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:21 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 35

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kevin Harvick — Harvick led 264 of 312 laps at Phoenix and won the Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500, qualifying for the Chase finale at Homestead.

"Just call me 'Mr. Unexcitement,'" Harvick said, "because I took all the drama out of Sunday's race."

2. Joey Logano — Logano came home sixth at Phoenix and easily clinched one of the four spots for the Chase For the Cup final at Homestead.

"Sadly," Logano said, "Brad Keselowski won't be joining me as eligible. Luckily, he only got 'knocked out' for having too few points."

3. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished second at Phoenix, but missed making the Chase final four by a single point. Gordon was edged out by Ryan Newman, who finished 11th.

"One second I was in," Gordon said, "then, in the blink of an eye, I was out. I'm devastated. I'd like to quote Kurt Busch and say 'I need a hug.'"

4. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin started on the pole and finished fifth to secure his eligibility in the season's final race at Homestead.

"Interestingly enough," Hamlin said, "Sunday's race at Homestead is called the Ford EcoBoost 400. Maybe the fuel will be clean, but I've got a feeling 'things' could get dirty."

5. Ryan Newman — Newman bullied his way past Kyle Larson to finish 11th and edge Jeff Gordon for the fourth and final Chase spot heading to Homestead.

"Sure," Newman said, "I may have been a little aggressive racing the No. 42. But I'm racing for a championship, Kyle's not. Let's face it, no one's gonna miss a 'Target.'"

6. Carl Edwards: Edwards finished 15th in the Quicken Loan Race For Heroes 500.

"I needed a win to make it to Homestead," Edwards said. "Obviously, I didn't get it. In fact, it wasn't even 'close,' which is also the kind of relationship I'm expecting with my new teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing next year."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth took third at Phoenix and finished seventh in the points standings, missing the Chase finale.

"Third place was a good finish," Kenseth said, "but it wasn't good enough. It's bittersweet, much like attacking Brad Keselowski and not drawing blood."

8. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished fourth at Phoenix, but it was not enough to punch his ticket to the championship at Homestead.

"There was still some fight left in me," Keselowski said. "This time, I was the one that beat it out of me."

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished eighth at Phoenix, joining Hendrick teammate Jeff Gordon in the top 10. Gordon failed to qualify for the final at Homestead, meaning no Hendrick driver is eligible to win the Cup.

"What do myself, Jimmie Johnson, and Ryan Newman have in common?" Earnhardt said. "We all helped keep Jeff Gordon from making the Chase final. As it our, our 'team orders' are to go out and win the race."

10. Kyle Larson — Larson finished 13th at Phoenix, and unknowingly had an impact on the Chase. Ryan Newman powered by Larson on the final lap, a move which put Newman in the final and left Jeff Gordon out.

"I don't fault Newman for racing me like he did," Larson said. "He was on a mission. That rendered Gordon on an 'omission.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:37 AM | Comments (0)

November 11, 2014

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* With the Packers leading 48-7, Jay Cutler completed a 3-yard pass on 1st-and-10. Mike McCarthy challenged the call.

* When Green Bay lost the challenge, Al Michaels deadpanned, "Boy, that might come back to bite him."

* Papa John's is selling products which no long qualify as "food". Their new commercials remind me of an old Onion satire on Domino's. A pizza covered in Fritos? Really? What happened to that "better ingredients" slogan?

* On this week's Thursday night game, Dre Kirkpatrick ran over his own head coach, Marvin Lewis, because Lewis was standing on the sideline during a return. The world didn't come to an end, and Lewis won't be fined. When Mike Tomlin did the same thing last year, only not as bad — there was no contact on that play — it was the worst event in human history, and he got fined $100,000. You could almost conclude that the NFL's discipline office is full of hypocrites and exists solely for cosmetic reasons.

* I thought the hat looked better on Trent Dilfer, actually.

Week 10 Rant: The Jay Cutler Trade

In the fourth quarter of the Sunday Night Massacre, Cris Collinsworth remarked, "This has not worked out with Jay Cutler. This has not worked out the way they thought it would." In April of 2009, the Chicago Bears traded Kyle Orton, two 1st-round draft picks, and a 3rd-round draft pick to the Denver Broncos, in exchange for Cutler and a 5th-round pick. It was a fortune to give up, for a player who was perceived to be immature, aloof, and sulky, and who had only played at a high level for half of one season.

The trade was a disaster, almost immediately. Orton outplayed Cutler in 2009 and '10 (see stats below), and Cutler (fairly or otherwise) developed a reputation as a bad teammate, someone who wasn't committed to the team. He's had trouble staying healthy, and last season he was outplayed by backup Josh McCown. In the offseason, the Bears let McCown leave and signed Cutler to a seven-year, $127 million extension.

Orton: 1,039 attempts; 7,455 yards; 41 TD; 21 INT; 87.2 passer rating
Cutler: 987 attempts; 6,940 yards; 50 TD; 42 INT; 80.9 passer rating

Cutler played well the first few weeks of the 2014 season. But he's also thrown too many interceptions, struggled to create first downs, and padded his stats in garbage time. As Collinsworth said, things have not worked out. Of course, the Bears' bad season is not exclusively because of Jay Cutler; Chicago's defense was horrendous on Sunday night. But here's something I was wondering about ... the Buffalo Bills are starting Kyle Orton right now. If the Bills could have their choice of Cutler or Orton, does anyone believe they would pick Cutler? Even apart from Cutler's ritzy contract, I think I'd rather have Orton.

Cutler is too inconsistent, makes too many mistakes. A good team, with offensive playmakers and a strong defense, can win with Kyle Orton. I don't think you can say that about Cutler. He has bad games too often.

2014 Week Ten NFL Power Rankings

Brackets show previous rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — They're 2½-point underdogs at Indianapolis in Week 11. I don't expect the Colts to cover.

2. Denver Broncos [3] — Peyton Manning threw five touchdown passes in less than 17 minutes, the ninth regular-season 5-TD game of his career. Most 5-TD performances since 1960:

1. Peyton Manning, 9
2. Drew Brees, 8
3. Dan Marino, 6
t4. George Blanda, 5
t4. Tom Brady, 5

If you include postseason, Manning has 10 and Brady is tied with Marino. Active QBs of interest include Ben Roethlisberger (4), Aaron Rodgers (3), and Matthew Stafford (3).

3. Kansas City Chiefs [2] — If you study statistics, it is obvious that NFL teams should go for it on fourth down much more often than they do. This weekend, two teams scored touchdowns on 4th-and-1. The Ravens' Justin Forsett scored a game-tying nine-yard TD in the second quarter, and Jamaal Charles ran 39 yards to the end zone when Andy Reid pulled the trigger in the fourth quarter. If the Chiefs punt on that play, they probably lose the game.

4. Green Bay Packers [5] — Aaron Rodgers had 36.6 fantasy points at halftime. If Rodgers had continued that pace in the second half, he would have finished with 630 passing yards and 12 touchdowns.

5. Indianapolis Colts [4] — Lead the NFL in points per game (32.2) and yards per game (451.2). If it holds up all season, that would be the third-most yardage in history, behind the 2011 Saints and last year's Broncos. The Colts also lead the league in average time of possession, 34:39. They win this stat by an average of nine minutes per game.

6. Arizona Cardinals [6] — Carson Palmer tore his ACL, once again making Drew Stanton the quarterback. Stanton has been solid and limited his mistakes; that's a good fit for this team. The Cardinals have a great defense and can win with a game manager at QB. But that three-year contract extension Palmer signed last week looks pretty bad for Arizona at this point.

7. Philadelphia Eagles [9] — Dominant win against an overmatched opponent. Let's talk about the Darren Sproles punt return TD, with game announcers Jon Gruden and Mike Tirico.

GRUDEN: "Carolina has struggled covering kicks, and Sproles averaging over 15 yards a return, gotta be real careful with this ball."

TIRICO: "Brad Nortman gets it away. Good kick, 55 yards."

ME: "I don't think that is such a good kick."

SPROLES: "Later, suckas."

Football fans have known about "outkicking the coverage" for decades. Nortman bombed the ball to Sproles in the middle of the field, and the only Panther within 10 yards was double-teamed. Gruden freaked out and went overboard ("Should not kick him the football ever"), but he was absolutely right before the play — a high kick toward the sideline was called for. Instead, Nortman put one of the most dangerous open-field runners of the last decade in the middle of the field with blockers and room to run. It was a TD return waiting to happen, and it was the punter's fault.

8. Detroit Lions [11] — This rank seems too high to me. The top six are a level apart from 7th-17th, all of whom are nearly equal. The Lions have won three in a row, but none of them were top-10-quality victories. The three teams they beat have a combined record of 12-15, and all three wins were by less than a touchdown, actually by less than a touchdown combined (1, 1, 4). Two of the three were at home and the other was on a neutral field.

9. Dallas Cowboys [10] — Playing with two transverse process fractures in his back, Tony Romo recorded a season-high passer rating of 138.8. He also became the first quarterback this season to face the Jaguars and get sacked only once. The Cowboys scored three touchdowns of 35 yards or more this weekend.

10. Miami Dolphins [7] — Left tackle Brandon Albert and cornerback Cortland Finnegan both left this week's game with injuries. Albert tore up his right knee and is done for the season, a massive loss for the Dolphins. Finnegan has an ankle injury of unspecified severity. Injuries are starting to become a serious problem, and I've dropped their ranking a couple spots because I don't believe this is the same team with Albert out and a few other guys banged up. Healthy-ish, they'd rank eighth.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — I mentioned last week that in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, the Ravens and Steelers are just 14-13 (.519) the week after they play each other, compared to 135-75 (.643) overall. A "letdown" hypothesis seems even more plausible following this week's upset loss to the Jets.

12. Baltimore Ravens [13] — They'll play the rest of the season without their best cornerback, Jimmy Smith, who had foot surgery last week. That's a huge blow for a team whose other DBs sort of suck.

13. Buffalo Bills [14] — Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus sacked Alex Smith three times, bringing his season total to 10. Since the 2002 realignment, Geno Atkins has the most single-season sacks by a DT, 12.5. Dareus has an outside shot at the record of 18, from the 1980s, when interior linemen had a different role than they do today and when sack rates were higher.

14. New Orleans Saints [12] — Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in history at avoiding sacks. Since joining the Saints in 2006, Brees has ranked among the top 10 QBs in (lowest) sack percentage every year. He's been top-four in seven of the last eight seasons, including two years leading the league (2007, 2011). The only QBs in history with a better sack rate are Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, and Joe Namath. This year, Brees gets sacked on just 3.3% of his attempts, compared to a league-wide average of 6.0%, and he went four quarters against the 49ers without getting sacked. But in overtime, Brees took sacks on back-to-back plays, the second of which led to a fumble recovered by the 49ers and set up the game-winning field goal.

15. Seattle Seahawks [15] — Following Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch's four-TD steamrolling of the Giants, Yahoo's Andy Behrens titled this week's Sunday Scene Marshawn Lynch unlocks new mode, beyond beast. During the broadcast of Seattle's win, Joe Buck wondered how long it's been since the NFL featured a running back as good at breaking tackles as Marshawn Lynch. It's an interesting question, and I believe you have to go back quite a while — more than 30 years — to the Houston Oilers' Earl Campbell. Maybe I'm remembering Jerome Bettis too dimly, and he should rank ahead of Lynch, or maybe I need to give more credit to shifty-and-strong guys like Emmitt Smith — but I don't think so. Lynch is phenomenal. DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster, Le'Veon Bell, and Matt Forte are all having great seasons, but no RB in the league right now is as much fun to watch as Lynch.

16. San Francisco 49ers [17] — The cavalry is coming. Over the next few weeks, the Niners expect Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman, and Patrick Willis to return to the lineup. If they do, and they're close to 100%, San Francisco suddenly becomes a Super Bowl contender in the wide-open NFC. The timetable for Bowman and Willis is not clear, but Smith is expected to play in Week 11.

UPDATE: Willis is out for the year.

17. Cleveland Browns [19] — Joe Haden. Buster Skrine. Donte Whitner. Tashaun Gipson. K'Waun Williams. Those are the players who won the game for them on Thursday night. Brian Hoyer managed the game (198 yds, no TD or INT), and they averaged 3.3 yards per rush. They didn't have a good night on special teams and they weren't anything special stopping the run or rushing the passer. But Cleveland's defensive backs shut down the Cincinnati receivers. It was a dominant performance.

18. St. Louis Rams [20] — Began the fourth quarter with a 14-10 lead over the 7-1 Cardinals. Then they gave up a 48-yard TD pass to a backup QB, and Austin Davis committed three turnovers, two of them returned for touchdowns. The game turned into a 31-14 blowout loss.

19. San Diego Chargers [16] — They're not being punished for having a bye, but the Niners and Browns got big wins and moved up — I don't imagine many people would argue with ranking those teams ahead of San Diego. What about the Rams, who lost this week? I rank teams based on current strength, not season-to-date. Over the last four weeks, the Rams have beaten the Seahawks and 49ers, with their losses on the road to good teams (Chiefs and Cardinals). The Chargers have lost three in a row, and their only win in the last month was by three points over the winless Raiders. I'm done rating the Chargers by what they did in September.

20. Houston Texans [21] — Changed quarterbacks during the bye week, benching Ryan Fitzpatrick and going to former New England backup Ryan Mallett. Head coach Bill O'Brien was offensive coordinator for the Patriots, so Mallett is familiar with his system. It's always interesting to see how good the backups to guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning really are — for all we know, they're the second-best QB on the team, and the second-best in the league.

21. Cincinnati Bengals [18] — They showed this stat on the TV broadcast ... in the first half, the Bengals had as many punts (5) as first downs, and as many penalties (5) as completed passes. The next three games are all on the road. Since the beginning of last season, Cincinnati is 4-7 in road games.

22. Washington [22] — Top-10 in yards gained (387/gm) and yards allowed (333/gm). They're 3-6 because of turnovers (-9), third downs (35%), and really atrocious special teams (especially early in the season).

23. New York Jets [27] — Jaiquawn Jarrett got his first start of the season this week. He took advantage of the opportunity, finishing with 7 solo tackles, a sack, 2 passes defensed, and three takeaways — 2 INTs and a fumble recovery. I think Jarrett has earned a regular spot in the starting lineup.

24. Minnesota Vikings [25] — Are there people who are on the edge of their seats about whether Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice get reinstated this season? Jay Glazer and Mike Florio and those guys report on it every week, and I just feel like I'd rather hear about the guys who are playing. Whatever appeal the tabloid stories had ran out at least a month ago.

25. Carolina Panthers [24] — Announcers struggle for interesting material in blowouts. Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden used the second half of Monday night's miserable game to denigrate running QBs — specifically Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and Robert Griffin III. Their argument was that the players get hurt too often, that they need to quit running around and play like white guys stay in the pocket. Four things:

1. In the middle of a game when Newton is not using the read option, and is getting killed inside the pocket, you're arguing that running the ball is dangerous? Are you watching the game?! He's been sacked nine times!

2. Neither Wilson nor Kaepernick has suffered major injuries. Most read option plays end with a slide or a run out of bounds. These guys take much bigger hits on sacks and scrambles than they do on designed runs.

3. Wilson is the only one of those guys who is a great passer. Newton, Kaepernick, and Griffin aren't exceptional if you don't let them run. From a football standpoint, they're not worth keeping healthy if they're not running. Newton's performance the last few weeks, case in point.

4. ESPN showed a graphic of the teams with the best records in the NFL, most of whom use pocket passers. Which is weird, because I could have sworn that Wilson and Kaepernick met in the NFC Championship Game earlier this year, and that Newton's Panthers went 12-4 and won the NFC South, and that Wilson's Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champions. I guess I must be wrong, because ESPN would never do anything misleading. Showing that graphic was worthy of the network that employs Skip Bayless.

26. Chicago Bears [26] — "It was easy from start to finish for the Green Bay Packers tonight," said Bob Costas at the end of the Sunday night game. That's the difference between a bad loss and humiliation: was it easy for the other team to beat you? The Packers had a 42-0 lead at halftime. On offense and defense, they did whatever they wanted and the Bears were powerless to prevent it.

You may have seen on NBC that the Bears are the first NFL team since the 1923 Rochester Jeffersons to allow 50+ points for two weeks in a row. The Jeffersons played in the league from 1920-25. Over their final four seasons, they went 0-21-2 and got outscored 484-52.

27. New York Giants [23] — Comparing them to the Bears ... both teams are 3-6. Both teams lost in embarrassing fashion this week, on games seen by most of the country. Both teams lost their previous game in embarrassing fashion as well. Both have high-profile quarterbacks who aren't playing well. The Giants' defense has allowed the most yards in the NFL. The Bears have allowed the most points. Both teams got their most recent win against the Atlanta Falcons.

28. Atlanta Falcons [28] — 3-0 against division opponents. 0-6 against everyone else.

29. Tennessee Titans [29] — Fourth game in a row scoring under 20 points. Tennessee ranks 31st in points per game, 16.0.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars [30] — Obviously, Gus Bradley and Bob Babich know much more about defensive strategy than I do. But I don't understand, not even a little bit, how you face Tony Romo and don't blitz him repeatedly. This is a quarterback who got destroyed by the blitz in his last game, and who was physically below 100%, combating a serious back injury. It seems like you'd want that player under pressure, getting hit, uncomfortable in the pocket. The Jaguars singled up Dez Bryant, but didn't take advantage by going after Romo. That seems like an obvious losing strategy, and I don't understand the defensive gameplan.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — It doesn't matter who starts at quarterback. The defense is just as bad (29th in yards allowed, 31st in points allowed) as the offense. Which is weird, because Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are excellent, and Danny Lansanah has done some good things.

32. Oakland Raiders [32] — Of the four rookie QBs starting this season, Derek Carr has the best statistics. He's thrown 13 TDs and 9 INTs, while the other three have combined for 14 TDs and 22 INTs. But Carr also has the fewest net yards per attempt (5.35) and the lowest first down percentage (28.3%). This week, Carr threw 47 passes, for only 192 yards and 9 first downs. How do you complete 30 passes and only pick up 9 first downs?

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:40 PM | Comments (2)

November 10, 2014

The Playoff's Budding Big 12 Dilemma

In the new world of college football, some conferences haven't exactly made sense. Realignment has made games like Maryland/Rutgers and North Carolina/Pitt not only conference matchups, but matchups within a single division in a conference.

Among the Power Five conferences, the Big 12 is a dose of sanity in the new world of conferences and hardly regional conference games. Ten teams each play each other one time in conference season, eliminating the need for a potentially season-killing conference championship game and the crowning of a true champion.

That format has paved the way for what could be one of the most interesting debates in the first season of the College Football Playoff.

After a Saturday that saw teams like Auburn, Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Kansas State all but drop from playoff contention, there's a compelling battle brewing between the biggest conferences. In Tuesday's Selection Committee rankings, all five current power conference leaders figure to be in the top eight.

In the four weeks until playoff teams are decided, Oregon will likely play Arizona State and Alabama plays Mississippi State next week. Even teams like Nebraska and Duke, one-loss teams outside of the top 10, will probably get their shot at Ohio State and Florida State, respectively.

But likely sitting up in the top five or six teams will be two schools from the Big 12 — TCU and Baylor — who already played each other on Oct. 11. Baylor won perhaps the season's craziest game to date that day, a 61-58 contest that took over four hours to play and featured a 21-point fourth quarter comeback in seven minutes of game time for the Bears.

However, after Baylor lost the next week to a West Virginia team, Baylor fell further down the rankings. As a result, even after Baylor absolutely stomped Oklahoma on the road this weekend, TCU will almost surely stay ahead in the committee's rankings. After Alabama's escape at LSU in overtime and TCU's shellacking of Kansas State, the Horned Frogs could be No. 4 on Tuesday while not being in position to win the Big 12 title.

Thus, in the very first year of the College Football Playoff, there could be a situation very reminiscent of past BCS controversies, where teams were left out of the title game with head-to-head wins over adjacent teams in the rankings (Florida State over Miami in 2000), or when teams that didn't win their own conference or even division ranked above those that did (Nebraska over Colorado in 2001 or Alabama over Oklahoma State in 2011).

However, if both Baylor and TCU hold serve and finish at 11-1, the committee should pick the Horned Frogs over the Bears.

The committee hasn't really tipped off its hand to what its deciding factors could be, beyond the obvious, with one exception. "I've sat through the [committee] meetings, and I think it's pretty clear that strength of schedule is going to become very important," committee member Oliver Luck said in March. "Ultimately, it's going to boil down to the committee having a couple of one-loss teams you're trying to decide between. Maybe there's one available spot at No. 4 for three or four one-loss teams, and I think one of the first things the committee will look at is strength of schedule."

It's not like TCU set the world on fire with its out-of-conference schedule, but they did play another Power Five team in Minnesota in the second game of the season. Minnesota now has an unexpected outside shot to win the Big Ten West in the next few weeks, sitting at 7-2.

Meanwhile, Baylor once again played about as bad a non-conference slate as is humanly possible, playing two awful FBS schools in SMU and Buffalo, and FCS' Northwestern State. Even though West Virginia athletic director Luck might recuse himself from committee proceedings about the fellow Big 12 schools, other committee members have said as much about strength of schedule in prior statements. If the committee wants to put a positive impact on scheduling for the future, penalizing Baylor for an empty September could go a long way.

There's also the dubious nature of how the TCU-Baylor game was decided. With the score tied at 58, TCU's Corry O'Meally was whistled for a very questionable pass interference call with less than a minute left on 3rd-and-10 from the TCU 43. If that call isn't made, the game almost surely goes to overtime.

And finally, TCU is simply a better football team. While Baylor is again the top scoring offense in the country, TCU is right behind them in that statistic as well as more advanced, efficiency-based metrics.

TCU's defense has also looked better than Baylor's, adjusting for schedule strength and efficiency. Trevone Boykin has been even better than Bryce Petty at quarterback after a lackluster 2013, and the running game is much stronger behind a great line and new offensive coordinator Doug Meacham.

In the weeks to come, TCU has an easier road to a potential national semifinal, playing Kansas, Texas and Iowa State. Baylor's three remaining games are all at home, but Oklahoma State and Kansas State are both to come. While a lot could happen in those games, and all around the nation, the Big 12's top two are setting the stage for perhaps the biggest controversy of the young playoff era.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 7:29 PM | Comments (0)

November 6, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 10

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-6)

The AFC North-leading Bengals host the Browns on Thursday Night Football. Cincy beat the Jaguars 33-23 last week to move to 5-2-1 on the year.

"Jeremy Hill was fantastic filling in for the injured Gio Bernard," Marvin Lewis said. "Jeremy was the league's leading rusher last week with 154 yards and 2 TDs. Gio graded him out at an A+. Of course, that's not official. Let's face it, Gio attended the University of North Carolina on a football scholarship — what does he know about a legitimate grade?

"Have you seen Andy Dalton's Pepsi commercial? It's got nothing on Stanley Wilson's 'coke' commercial, which was made on the eve of Super Bowl XXIII. Wilson's was the most sudden playoff departure for the Bengals — at least until Dalton showed up. Anyway, in his Pepsi ad, Andy shocks a restaurant patron, not with a playoff win, but by showing up and drinking her Pepsi."

The Browns beat the Buccaneers 22-17 last week and are 5-3 in the AFC North, just one game behind the Bengals. Brian Hoyer passed for 300 yards and 2 TDs, but also threw 2 interceptions.

"I sense that Johnny Manziel is frustrated," Mike Pettine said. "But just like in college, he's being a true professional about it. He hasn't been a distraction. The only friction on this team is when Johnny rubs his fingers together.

"Brian Hoyer is this team's unquestioned leader. He'd rather plan a team trip to Glendale, Arizona, not Las Vegas, Nevada. Brian's contract is up at the end of this year, and we have to decide what direction we want to take at quarterback. I've got a feeling jersey sales will guide us in the right direction."

It's "Vontaze Burfict Bobblehead Night" at Paul Brown Stadium. The first 2,500 fans who correctly answer the question "Where are you?" receive a Burfict doll and a passing grade on the Bengals rudimentary concussion test.

Cincinnati wins, 26-22.

Kansas City @ Buffalo (+1½)

The Chiefs routed the lowly Jets 24-10 last week and improved to 5-3 in the AFC West. Alex Smith, playing with a sore shoulder, threw for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"The shoulder feels great," Smith said. "Lawsuits be damned, painkillers really work. Interestingly enough, a shot in my arm gives our team a shot in the arm. And speaking of 'needles' and 'arms,' I've got the same quarterback rating as that walking billboard Colin Kaepernick. They say Peyton Manning is the most knowledgeable quarterback in history. Don't discount Kepernick — he's well-'versed,' too. Christians can 'read' Kaepernick just as easily as a linebacker dropping back into coverage."

The Bills, coming off a bye week, stand 5-3 in the AFC East, one-and-a-half games behind the Patriots.

"Kyle Orton may have been the best free agent signing in the NFL this season," Doug Marrone said. "That was the best 'pickup' for the Bills since Thurman Thomas found his helmet.

"Just like the Chiefs, our last win came against the Jets. Those Jets are leaving their mark across the league and across the sky — it's called a losing streak."

Bills win, 23-20.

Miami @ Detroit (-2½)

The Lions lead the NFC North with a 6-2 record, and are fresh from a bye week after week 7's 22-21 win over the Falcons in London. In that game, the Lions erased a 21-point deficit to win on Matt Prater's field goal on the game's last play, a kick made possible by a delay of game penalty that nullified Prater's miss just moments before.

"Of all people," Jim Caldwell said, "Prater is grateful for a second chance, and he's managing his condition well. He keeps his mind off alcohol in a very odd way — by counting the number of kicking tees during practice. That helps him remain a 'teetotaler.'

"Calvin Johnson will be back against the Dolphins. He's missed several games with a bum ankle. For a while there, Megatron couldn't get around without the help. That's why we hired former Lion great and University Of Miami product Bennie Blades, so Calvin could walk with a 'Cane."

The Dolphins forced four Phillip Rivers turnovers in a 37-0 demolition of the Chargers in Miami last week. Ryan Tannehill passed for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns as the 'Fins remained a game in the loss column behind New England.

"The Chargers had a long flight back from Miami," Tannehill said. "I'm sure they were happy to get back home, as well as to the drawing board.

"Joe Philbin has this team believing in ourselves. That's something Nick Saban couldn't do. Nick couldn't handle the rigors of the pro game. There's no denying that. But one thing's for sure in Miami: the tide has turned. When all is said and done, the Dolphins should be in the playoffs, and Saban should be in a Dish Network 'Hopper' commercial with Brian Bosworth, Matt Leinart, and Heath Shuler."

The Lions defense answers the call, as well as the question, "Is Ryan Tannehill for real?" Tannehill throws two picks, and Johnson catches a short TD pass from Matthew Stafford before leaving the game with a contused larynx in the third quarter.

Detroit wins, 27-14.

Dallas @ Jacksonville (+8)

The Cowboys and Jaguars face off in London's Wembley Stadium in the league's third London game this season. Without an injured Tony Romo last week, the Cowboys lost 28-17 to the Cardinals, and there was bickering on the sideline, as Dez Bryant was seen yelling at Brandon Weeden.

"I wouldn't call it a 'fight,'" Jason Garrett said. "If it was, then 'How 'Bout Them Cowboys?' would be an appropriate headline.

"Dez wears his heart on his sleeve. He just wants to win, whether it's at the line of scrimmage against Patrick Peterson, a game of dominos in the locker room against Terrence Williams, or a street fight with his mother.

"I think Tony's back will be okay. Then again, I'm not a doctor. Jerry Jones, on the other hand, thinks his honorary degree from the Corpus Christi School of Veterinary Science makes him qualified to opine on Romo's status. Jerry says it's 'M.D.'; I say it's 'B.S.'"

The Jaguars dropped to 1-8 after last week's 33-23 loss to the Bengals. The Jags were solid offensively and defensively, but were let down by special teams blunders.

"We may be only be 1-8," Gus Bradley said, "but I see a whole lot of promise. It's an unofficial statistic, but we lead the NFL in 'little' victories.

"Will Queen Elizabeth be in Wembley Stadium? If she is, that may be the closest Jerry Jones gets to the 'crown.' The Jaguars owner, Shad Khan, shares a lot of similarities with Jones. They're both billionaires, and neither knows a thing about football."

Dallas wins, 30-26.

San Francisco @ New Orleans (-4½)

The Saints seized the NFC South lead with a crucial 28-10 win over the Panthers in Charlotte last week. At 4-4, New Orleans leads the Panthers by a game.

"What a great game by our defense," Sean Payton said. "You know, a defense is built in the image of the defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, and those guys showed a lot of guts against the Panthers.

"After starting the season 1-3, we're thrilled to be 4-4. Earlier this season, if you would have said '500' ball, I would assumed you were talking about the opposing team's yardage."

The 49ers had three tries to score from the St. Louis 1-yard line, but couldn't punch it in and lost 13-10. Colin Kaepernick fumbled the snap on third down and the Rams recovered.

"Colin says he scored before he fumbled," Jim Harbaugh said, "and I believe him. Officials thought otherwise. I don't know what was going on under that pile. Apparently, the Rams were grabbing at the ball, and Colin was grasping at straws.

"Unfortunately, we won't get Aldon Smith back until next week. That's probably a good thing. The last we need is Aldon strolling down Bourbon Street. But look out when he returns. Aldon became downright giddy when he found out the league was giving him 'another shot.' He's trading in the brown paper bag for a sack."

New Orleans wins, 27-24.

Tennessee @ Baltimore (-10)

The Ravens were pummeled 43-23 by the Steelers, who avenged their Week 2 loss in Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger torched the Ravens defense for 340 yards and 6 touchdowns.

"We had numerous breakdowns in the defensive backfield," John Harbaugh said. "We need to find out why, and I fully expect everyone involved to cooperate with the investigation.

"On that note, we've started a charity in support of Ray Rice's quest to be reinstated. It's called 'Ray's Awareness.' Make a donation to the cause, and we will beat it."

The Titans are coming off a Week 9 bye. Tennessee is 2-6 in the AFC South, one game ahead of the last-place Jaguars.

"Baltimore is always a tough place to play," Ken Whisenhunt said. "But we can't play scared. I need to see total commitment from my players. Some people would settle for a conviction in Baltimore; I need more — I'd like to see some 'conviction' in Baltimore.

"Zach Mettenberger will be starting at quarterback. Zach is similar in size and stature to Roethlisberger, so Big Ben's performance against the Ravens was a real confidence booster. Zach hopes he can do to the Ravens what Roethlisberger did to the Ravens. After all, he already did to a woman in a bar in Georgia what Roethlisberger did to a woman in a bar in Georgia."

Asked by a Baltimore reporter if he'll post anymore selfie's, Mettenberger replies, "Never more," a response which irks some of the Ravens, who in turn alert the "Poe-lice," a literary organization dedicated to ensure that Edgar Allan Poe references are used only by Ravens players. Baltimore roughs up Mettenberger, sacking him six times, and forces 3 Titans turnovers.

Baltimore wins, 34-13.

Pittsburgh @ NY Jets (+4½)

The Jets suffered a demoralizing 24-10 defeat at Arrowhead Stadium last week and fell to 1-8 on the season. Michael Vick started the game, but left after suffering a head injury. Matt Simms finished the game for the Jets.

"Yep," Rex Ryan said, "that's Matt Simms, brother of Chris Simms and son of Phil Simms. I guess quarterbacking doesn't run, or pass, in the family. If quarterbacking is indeed genetic, Mrs. Simms must be an awful quarterback.

"Jets fan raised $10,000 to put up a billboard urging owner Woody Johnson to fire general manager John Idzik. I shudder to think how much fans could raise on my behalf. Billboards or not, all signs points to my firing at season's end.

"We've got to find a way to stop Roethlisberger. Twelve touchdowns in two games is incredible. You could say it's an amazing feat, and trust me, I know amazing feet when I see them."

The Steelers pounded the Ravens 43-23 last week, led by Ben Roethlisberger's 6 touchdown passes and a resurgent James Harrison.

"The Ravens like to talk," Roethlisberger said. "I encouraged them not to talk. That's worked out well for me in the past, and it didn't disappoint this time.

"And speaking of common themes in my life, I threw 6 TDs for the second consecutive game. Twelve TDs in two games broke the record of 11 held by Tom Flores and Tom Brady. I'm so proud to see my name in the record book. Hopefully, that's a record that will never be expunged."

Steelers win, 27-16, sending the Jets to their ninth consecutive defeat, a first in Jets franchise history.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (even)

The NFC South's bottom two teams meet at Raymond James Stadium as the 1-6 Bucs host the 2-6 Falcons. Last week, Tampa lost 22-17 to the Browns.

"The record doesn't reflect it," Lovie Smith said, but we're improving every week. Mike Evans had an impressive game, with 2 touchdowns. After parties and strippers, he was Johnny Manziel's favorite target at Texas A&M. Here's an interesting fact: 'A&M' stands for 'autographs and money.'

"We share a lot of similarities with the Falcons. Just like us, they are coached by a 'Smith.' And similarly, that 'Smith' is on the hot seat. Likewise, things don't look good for either one of us. Just the other day, I was standing on the replica pirate ship at Raymond James Stadium when it hit me: a sinking feeling. The Smith that loses this game will likely be fired. For one of these Smith's, a career could be blown to 'Smith-ereens.'"

In their last outing, the Falcons blew a 21-0 lead and lost 22-21 to the Lions in London. Falcons owner Arthur Blank said there was "no way" the Falcons should have lost that game.

"Arthur answers 'no way' to a lot of questions," Mike Smith said. "Like, 'Is my job safe?' or 'Can I touch your mustache?' or 'Is Home Depot a poor man's Lowe's?' or 'Is there a strip club in Atlanta called the 'Jugs Machine?'

"One thing you have to remember is that we've been devastated by injuries, particularly on defense. So, if we win in Tampa, with a nod to Jim Schwartz, I'm asking my players to cart me off the field."

Matt Ryan throws 2 touchdowns passes and the Falcons win, 24-23.

Denver @ Oakland (+11)

The Patriots pounded the Broncos 43-21 in wintry Foxboro last Sunday, handing Denver only its second loss of the year. Peyton Manning passed for 438 yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Broncos running game offered no balance.

"Conditions were treacherous at Gillette Stadium," Manning said, "and it had nothing to do with the weather.

"The Pats really turned on the offense. In an interesting turn of events, the scoreboard operator at Gillette had a talk with me. He said he'd keep the decibels, and the score, under 50.

"I simply have to play better. You can best believe I'll study the tape of that game and learn from it. If there's one thing I can say about Patriots defenses over the years is that they make me a better quarterback. Unfortunately, it never happens on game day."

The Broncos strike on their opening possession, scoring on Manning's 25-yard TD pass to Demaryius Thomas. Two Raiders turnovers later, it's 21-0, and O.co Coliseum becomes Uh O.co Coliseum. Manning gets in on the gaudy passing stats fad, throwing for 5 touchdowns.

Denver wins, 42-20.

St. Louis @ Arizona (-7)

The Cardinals limited the Dallas running game and frustrated Brandon Weeden in a 28-17 win at AT&T Stadium. Arizona improved to 7-1, and would be the NFC's top-seed if the regular season ended today.

"Carson Palmer has rejuvenated his career," Bruce Aryans said. "He's a true renaissance man. Just a few short weeks ago, he couldn't even throw a ball. Just a few short years ago, he refused to throw a ball.

"We're glad he's in Arizona. Giving the Raiders a sixth-round pick for Palmer may have been the best deal we've ever made. I'm not sure who the Raiders drafted with that pick, but I'm sure he's either out of the league, or a starter with another team."

The Rams used a goal-line stand to stun the 49ers 13-10 at Levi's Stadium. St. Louis sacked Colin Kaepernick eight times and forced 2 Kaepernick turnovers.

"The crowd at Levi's Stadium was just devastated," Jeff Fisher said. "For the time being, we'll call that place 'Blue Jeans Stadium.'

"You can best believe we'll come after Palmer. We sacked Kaepernick eight times, and he's a moving target. Palmer is not very mobile. Unlike Cincinnati or Oakland, Palmer will stay in the pocket."

Arizona wins, 27-13.

NY Giants @ Seattle (-10)

The Giants offense looked out of synch in Monday night's 40-24 loss to the Colts. Indy led 40-10 at one point, but Eli Manning threw 2 late touchdown passes to make it respectable.

"As is usual in New Jersey," Manning said, "the organized crime syndicate was quite interested in those late scores, because they were made in garbage time."

On Saturday, Eli calls Peyton for some advice on how to overcome the Seahawks. Peyton replies, "beats me," and hangs up.

Richard Sherman picks off an errant Manning pass and returns it 52 yards for a touchdown, and is then pelted with cans of Chunky Soup from adoring Seahawks fans.

Seattle wins, 30-23.

Chicago @ Green Bay (-7½)

The Packers four-game winning streak was snapped in last week's 44-23 loss at New Orleans. Aaron Rodgers threw for 418 yards and a touchdown, but injured his hamstring in the second half and was ineffective thereafter.

"Aaron's hamstring is fine," Mike McCarthy said. "I know a lot of Packers fans are worried, but Aaron's receiving top-notch treatment. We've got him hooked up to a contraption that sends electronic stimuli to the affected area, causing a vibration that aids healing. He tweaked his hamstring; this device twerks it."

The Bears had a much-needed by week after Week 8's 51-23 loss at New England. The loss left the Bears at 3-5, three games behind the 6-2 Lions in the NFC North.

"Indeed," Marc Trestman said. "The bye week afforded us time to work on a lot of things, most notably our attitudes. Sure, most people want to slap the look off of Jay Cutler's face. If Rodgers is the 'State Farm Guy,' then Jay's teammates are the 'Hate Smarm Guys.' Don't get me wrong, no one questions Jay's toughness. If they do, he just mentions Derrick Rose's name."

Green Bay wins, 30-27.

Carolina @ Philadelphia (-6)

The Carolina offense struggled in last Thursday's 28-10 loss to the Saints at Bank of America Stadium. Can Newton was 10-of-28 for only 151 yards and had 2 turnovers.

"Accuracy isn't Newton's strong suit," Ron Rivera said. "That applies to passing, as well as to testimony to the NCAA. Cam's jersey says '1'; he says '4' when he throws."

The Eagles beat the Texans 31-21 last week. Nick Foles left the game in the first half with a shoulder injury; Mark Sanchez took over and threw for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"Mark has a lot of experience at quarterback," Chip Kelly said. "Keep in mind, he's been in the league for six years. That's a long time. To put that in perspective, his former girlfriend is now 23."

Carolina pulls the upset, 27-25.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:54 AM | Comments (0)

November 5, 2014

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 34

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Joey Logano — Logano spun on lap 303 at Texas and lost ground, but recovered to finish 12th. He is tied for the lead in the points standings with Denny Hamlin.

"I may be the Chase's youngest driver," Logano said, "but I can still set a good example for some of the veterans. I mean, I would never go after another driver — I'd just let me dad do it.

"Was the post-race melee real, or was it staged? It looked fishy. I kind of expected Ashton Kutcher to appear and tell Brad Keselowski and Jeff Gordon that they had just been on MTV's prank show 'Punch'd.'"

2. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led 49 laps and was poised to take the win before Clint Bowyer spun to bring out a caution with five laps to go. On the ensuing restart, Gordon was squeezed by Brad Keselowski, which punctured a rear tire on the No. 24. Gordon eventually finished finished 29th and is fourth in the points standings.

"I'd like to apologize for my characterization of Keselowski," Gordon said. "But only for its accuracy.

"My quest for title number five took a hit. I'll be extremely disappointed if I don't get it, especially with a lot of big name drivers ineligible. My car is sponsored by the 'Drive to End Hunger;' I just don't want the final race of the season to be a 'drive to end hungry.'"

3. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished 10th at Texas and now leads the Sprint Cup points standings, thanks to a shake-up in the final laps at Texas.

"They say everything is bigger in Texas," Hamlin said. "Apparently, that includes expletives uttered on the air.

"Now, I'll do anything at Phoenix to make sure I advance to the final round. Like some other drivers, I'll gladly fight my way into the Championship round."

4. Ryan Newman — Newman finished 15th in the AAA Texas 500 and is now third in the points standings, 2 points behind Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin.

"I just need to hold my position and I'm on to the next round," Newman said. "Basically, that means I need to steer clear of the No. 2 car. I've got plenty of experience with that, because when Rusty Wallace was in that car, I avoided him like the plague.

"I don't know all the ins and outs of clinching scenarios for Phoenix. My goal is to go out and win. I may have an engineering degree, but someone else can do the math."

5. Carl Edwards — Edwards posted a ninth in the AAA Texas 500, earning his 13th top 10 of the year. He is fifth in the points standings, one behind fourth place.

"What a scene after the race," Edwards said. "That's two fights in the last three races. I can't wait to see what happens at Phoenix. They say the track there is an oval; I say it looks more like a 'squared circle.'"

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth started on the pole at Texas and finished 25th, a finished which severely damaged his hopes to advance. He is fifth in the points standings, one point behind Jeff Gordon in fourth.

"I've only got Kevin Harvick after me," Kenseth said. "That's nothing compared to Brad Keselowski. There's a lot a drivers that want to get in his face. I truly think Brad needs another spotter at Phoenix. By 'another spotter,' I mean 'eyes in the back of his head.'"

7. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski started 26th at Texas and finished third in the AAA Texas 500. On the races penultimate restart, Keselowski forced his way between Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Contact punctured Gordon's tire, and Keselowski also raised the ire of Kevin Harvick.

"Depending on who you ask," Keselowski said, "I'm either on a reign of terror or a reign of error.

"But I won't change how I race. I'm still going to do things my way, so don't get in my way. Right now, I'm just focused on Phoenix International Raceway. You could say I have a 'one track mind.'"

8. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished second in the AAA Texas 500, placing himself in solid position to advance to the Chase For The Cup's next round. Afterwards, Harvick was in the middle of a melee involving Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski.

"I pushed Keselowski right into the middle of it," Harvick said. "It may have been the most literal example of the saying 'When push comes to shove.'

"Don't tell anyone, but my push was a crafty ploy to create a feud between Keselowski and Gordon, two drivers who just happen to be the ones I'm battling for a spot in the Chase's final round. Jimmy John's is 'freaky fast;' I'm 'sneaky fast.'"

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished sixth in the AAA Texas 500 as Hendrick teammate Jimmie Johnson won the race.

"Formula 1 raced in Austin on Sunday," Earnhardt said. "But their race couldn't hold a candle to what happened at the NASCAR event. To Formula 1, we all say 'Stay classy.' To NASCAR, Formula 1 says the same thing, but with an open cockpit full of sarcasm.

"There were more cheap shots at Texas than on dollar night at Whisky River. Only one thing could have made that Texas fracas better — if Dr. Jerry Punch could have handled post-race interviews."

10. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson held off Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick to win his third consecutive Texas fall race.

"That's two straight wins for Hendrick Motorsports drivers in the Eliminator round," Johnson said. "Apparently, we're trying to 'eliminate' Jeff Gordon from any chance of winning his fifth Cup."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:55 PM | Comments (0)

November 4, 2014

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Election day in the United States is today, November 4th. If you're eligible to vote, please participate. There are a lot of people who fought for your right to cast a ballot.

* How much do penalties matter? New England has by far the most (79 for 699 yards), 100 yards more than any other team. The team with the least penalty yardage this year is the Jacksonville Jaguars (40 pen, 312 yds).

* Pet peeve: showing replays but pausing them at the critical moment, so we can't see what actually happened. NBC did this repeatedly on Sunday night. One pause is fine, but showing the same play four times and repeatedly pausing it is incredibly frustrating and not fan-friendly.

* Percy Harvin already has more receiving yards with the Jets (151), in two games, than he did with Seattle (133). I don't know much about the circumstances that led to Harvin's departure from the Seahawks, but I know the Jets are glad to have him.

* Five quarterbacks have a first down percentage over 40%: Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and Alex Smith. Smith leads the league (42.7%).

Week 9 Rant: Give Up

"Baltimore takes a timeout, for whatever reason I have no idea."

There were 27 seconds left in a 43-23 game when Al Michaels said that. Two plays later, Joe Flacco spiked the ball to stop the clock with :02 remaining. This is an appropriate time to re-print a John Madden quote I've used half a dozen times: "In this situation it's silly to run plays. I mean, what are you going to do? Do you have a play that scores 20 points?"

The same sort of thing happened in New England, where Broncos coach John Fox used all three timeouts with under 2:20 left in the fourth quarter. His team was down 43-21 and the Patriots had the ball at midfield. I know Peyton Manning had that 21-points-in-three-minutes comeback against the Buccaneers in 2003, but you're not going to score three touchdowns and a two-point conversion in 1:54, without any timeouts.

Fox did the same thing six years ago in Carolina's playoff loss to the Cardinals. The Panthers were losing 33-7 with less than a minute left. At that point, you're not trying to win. It's impossible, and anyone old enough to do elementary math knows it's impossible. But Fox called timeouts, attempted a two-point conversion, and kicked off onside. The whole thing was disrespectful. Fox wasted everybody's time: he put the fans through 10 minutes of what should have taken 57 seconds, he put the Cardinals at risk of injury, and he prolonged his own team's misery. The final score was 33-13.

At that point, everyone wants the game to be over. The winning team wants to end the game before anyone gets hurt. The losing team wants to get this over with. The fans in the stadium want to go home. The fans at home want to move on. Extending the game in an unwinnable situation is childish and petty, but it's also disrespectful to everyone involved, and in some cases, it's dangerous. In 2009, the Browns were losing 16-0 with :20 left. The game is over. Run it once and let the clock run out. Instead, they ran three plays, including one of those with the crazy laterals. Even if it scored, that's not a 16-point play. You still lose. It didn't score, but team MVP Joshua Cribbs was injured on the play, carted off the field, and taken to a hospital.

On Sunday night, Flacco stopped the clock with two seconds left in a game his team was losing by 20 points. There's no such thing as a 20-point play. I wish I could have put Madden in John Harbaugh's ear at that point: "In this situation it's silly to run plays. I mean, what are you going to do? Do you have a play that scores 20 points?" I think coaches need to be reminded of that sometimes. It's irresponsible to call plays in that situation, and it's disrespectful to the players on both teams to risk their health when the outcome is clearly decided.

2014 Week Nine NFL Power Rankings

Brackets show last week's rank.

1. New England Patriots [3] — Rob Gronkowski is the highest-impact tight end since Kellen Winslow. He's a good blocker, and he's the most dangerous receiving tight end in the NFL. I believe Tony Gonzalez is the best TE in history, but Tony never had a season or a series of seasons that compares to Gronk from 2011-14. Tony's best four-year touchdown total was 33 (1999-2002), over 63 games. Since the start of the '11 season, Gronk has 40 TD receptions in 43 games. He's the fastest player to 50 TD catches since Randy Moss.

2. Kansas City Chiefs [2] — Justin Houston had two more sacks this week, bringing his season total to 12. No one else has more than 9. Last year, Houston dislocated his elbow and missed the last five games, during which Kansas City went 2-3 (after a 9-2 start). Most multi-sack games, 2012-present:

1. J.J. Watt, 10,
2. Justin Houston, 9
t3. Von Miller, 8
t3. Robert Quinn, 8
t3. Aldon Smith, 8

Fellow Chief Tamba Hali is tied for 8th, with six multi-sack games in the last 2½ years. This is not a trivial statistic. When a player has multiple sacks, his team wins about two-thirds of the time. That's particularly true when it's a star pass-rusher. From 2012 to today, teams are 230-120-2 (.659) when one of their players has two or more sacks. But if you restrict that to players with two or more multi-sack games, their teams are 182-88-2 (.673) in those weeks. If you look just at the top 32 pass rushers, players with four or more multi-sack games since 2012, their teams are 118-52-2 (.692) when they get two or more sacks. By the time you get to the top 10, players with six or more multi-sack games, their teams have a .727 winning percentage in those games.

Why is this true? I'm guessing ... when a safety or an inside linebacker gets two sacks in a game, that means the team is blitzing, which is a boom-or-bust strategy. If you get a couple of sacks but give up a long bomb downfield, that's not a positive for your team. When guys like Houston and Hali get to the quarterback, though, that might indicate that you're getting pressure without blitzing. Maybe there's a matchup problem, the other team's left tackle can't block your guy, they have to slide extra protection to that side, the QB keeps getting hurried ... The stats above are probably a little off, because I'm double-counting games when two or more teammates had multiple sacks in the same game, but when a star pass rusher like Houston has a big game, his team will win about 70% of the time.

3. Denver Broncos [1] — In the last two games, Julius Thomas has four catches for 56 yards. Do the Broncos struggle when opponents shut down Orange Julius? I compared the results this year for Demaryius Thomas (DT), Julius Thomas (JT), and Emmanuel Sanders (ES). The Broncos are 6-2. Here are the average stats for their six wins:

And their two losses:

In DT's four best (statistical) games, the Broncos went 3-1 and outscored opponents 135-98. In JT's four best games, Denver went 4-0 and outscored opponents 127-78. For Sanders, 2-2 and they actually got outscored, 100-107.

There's not enough data here to draw conclusions we can have confidence in, but the available evidence suggests that teams should concentrate on shutting down the Thomases, especially Julius, and take their chances with Sanders.

4. Indianapolis Colts [4] — Andrew Luck is really good, but the hype for this kid is a little out of control. The Giants gave up in the second half, and that's when Luck put up his biggest numbers. In the first half, the Colts went 1/7 on third downs and their only TD came on sort of a flukey play, when the Giants tried to challenge, but didn't get the flag out in time.

I was more impressed by the Indianapolis defense. The Giants punted on their first five drives and didn't convert a third down until their sixth possession, almost halfway through the second quarter. New York's first-half drives yielded: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, field goal, punt, punt. If you wanted to sum up the game in one sentence, Jon Gruden probably had it right: "These Colt corners I think are better than these Giant receivers."

5. Green Bay Packers [5] — Aaron Rodgers' Week 8 hamstring injury is described as a mild tweak, so everyone expects him pretty close to 100% when the Packers return from bye in Week 10. This ranking assumes he's healthy.

6. Arizona Cardinals [7] — Best record in the NFL, 7-1. Most rankings will put them first or second this week. But the purpose of power rankings — literally the whole point — is to look beyond standings. Who have you beaten? How did you win? What's happened lately?

The Cardinals have beaten three pretty bad teams (Giants, Washington, Oakland), by an average of 11 points; none of the games were blowouts. That's fine; they did what they had to do. They also beat the the Chargers in Week 1 and the 49ers in Week 3, but (1) neither of those teams is as good we thought at the time, (2) both games were at home, (3) both games were close, and (4) that was two months ago.

More recently, the Cardinals beat the Eagles in a thrilling back-and-forth contest, and topped the Brandon Weeden-led Cowboys. The only really impressive victory was the one over Philadelphia, but that was a razor-close game that easily could have gone the other way. I believe Arizona will win the NFC West, and I think Bruce Arians is a pretty easy choice as Coach of the Year right now, but the Cardinals aren't a dominant team.

7. Miami Dolphins [12] — An announcer called this week's 37-0 blowout of San Diego a "career game" for Ryan Tannehill. It was a great game (288 yds, 3 TD, career-high 125.6 passer rating), but was it really his best? I found the top five games of Tannehill's career, by fantasy scoring. I used 25 pass yards per point, 10 rush yards per point, 6 points for rush TDs, 4 points for pass TDs, and -4 for interceptions and lost fumbles (because -1 is idiotic).

1. Nov 2, 2014, 37-0 vs SD: 28.2 — 335 net yd, 3 TD, 0 turnover
2. Dec 15, 2013, 24-20 vs NE: 24.4 — 288 net yd, 3 TD, 0 turnover
3. Oct 19, 2014, 27-14 at CHI: 23.9 — 304 net yd, 2 TD, 0 turnover
4. Dec 8, 2013, 34-28 at PIT: 21.6 — 242 net yd, 3 TD, 1 turnover
t5. Dec 1, 2013, 23-3 at NYJ: 19.4 — 350 net yd, 2 TD, 1 turnover
t5. Sep 16, 2012, 35-13 vs OAK: 19.4 — 203 net yd, 2 TD, 0 turnover

The announcer was right: statistically, this was the best game of Tannehill's career, and it's not particularly close.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers [18] — Another magnificent game for Ben Roethlisberger, the first player in history with back-to-back 6-TD performances. I suppose Big Ben and Steeler fans are okay with Todd Haley at this point? Not that there was anything wrong with Bruce Arians, who is COY front-runner in Arizona, but offensive coordinator Haley seems to be doing a pretty good job. Not only is Ben setting records, the Steelers rank 7th in points per game and 3rd in yards per game. That's the team's best rank in either category since 2001; to do better, you have to go back to 1979, the last Super Bowl year of the Steel Curtain dynasty with Terry Bradshaw, Franco Harris, and Lynn Swann.

9. Philadelphia Eagles [9] — With a healthy Nick Foles, they would rank eighth. But Foles has a broken collarbone, leaving Mark Sanchez as the quarterback, with Matt Barkley as the backup. Foles isn't exactly Peyton Manning, but Sanchez isn't even Eli Manning. It's hard for me to believe this is a top-10 team with Sanchez under center and DeMeco Ryans out for the season (torn Achilles), but there's really no one to move up.

10. Dallas Cowboys [6] — The Cowboys play in London's Wembley Stadium in Week 10. Since the London series began, teams are 7-15 the week before making the trip. Brandon Weeden was awful on Sunday (176 net yards, 55.5 rating), but with the Wembley curse at work, Dallas may have been fighting an uphill battle no matter who played QB. Tony Romo traveled with the team to England. It sounds about 50/50 whether Romo will play against the Jaguars, and even if he's on the field, he's unlikely to be anything near 100% — maybe more like we saw at the end of the Monday night game against Washington.

11. Detroit Lions [14] — My excuse for moving them up three spots in a bye week is the return of Megatron. Calvin Johnson is expected to play in Week 10, for the first time in over a month.

12. New Orleans Saints [17] — It always seemed weird to me that the Saints used a first-round draft pick on Mark Ingram and then stashed him in a three- or four-man backfield committee. The last two weeks, Ingram has delivered on the promise he showed in college. You hope Ingram will continue to get 15-20 carries a game even when the other running backs are healthy.

13. Baltimore Ravens [11] — The absence of cornerback Jimmy Smith (sprained left foot) played an obvious role in Sunday night's loss to Pittsburgh. I wanted to investigate something Cris Collinsworth mentioned during the broadcast: "I always thought the time you wanted to play these teams was right after this game." I checked the records for Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the weeks before and after their games against each other, for three time periods: the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era (2008-present), the Ben Roethlisberger era (2004-present), and from 2000-present, since the Ravens made the playoffs for the first time in 2000. The table below shows record and point differential (+/-) in the relevant weeks, along with the teams' overall records in those years (including all regular season games).

Same chart, winning percentage and average margin of victory per game:

This data suggests that Collinsworth was right — the Ravens and Steelers appear to suffer letdowns following their games against each other. But there are two other interesting ideas suggested by these numbers:

1. The rivalry has gotten more intense over time. The difference is all from the Harbaugh/Flacco era. From 2000-07, Baltimore and Pittsburgh were .603 overall and .680 after playing each other — better than their overall records. It's only over the last six or seven seasons that this has become such a draining rivalry.

2. I have no idea why, but both teams performed noticeably better in the week before they meet. I guess distraction and "looking ahead" don't play a role.

14. Buffalo Bills [16] — Sammy Watkins leads all rookie receivers in yardage (590), first down receptions (29), and TDs (5, tied with three others). This was a highly anticipated class of rookie wideouts, featuring five first-round picks and another six second-rounders, plus Donte Moncrief and John Brown in the third round. They've lived up to the hype. Chase Stuart, of Football Perspective and the New York Times, reported last week that the class of 2014 has more receiving TDs than any other class of receivers in the NFL this year.

Kelvin Benjamin could be one of the best WRs in the NFL if he were more consistent, while Odell Beckham, John Brown, and Martavis Bryant have shown flashes of great potential, but right now, Watkins is the best rookie receiver and the front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

15. Seattle Seahawks [13] — After three quiet weeks (66 net yds/gm, 0 TD), Marshawn Lynch almost single-handedly delivered the offense Seattle needed in an uncomfortably close win over the Oakland Raiders. Lynch made an unbelievable three-yard Beast Mode TD run and a 39-yard reception down the sideline to power the offense on a day when Russell Wilson struggled badly.

16. San Diego Chargers [8] — Since their 31-0 shutout win over the Jets in Week 5, they're 1-3, with the victory by three points against the winless Raiders. Philip Rivers was a disaster against Miami, but the team's biggest problem is defensive third down percentage — a league-worst 49%. You can't expect to make the playoffs letting your opponents convert half their third downs. The Chargers again played without Jason Verrett, Manti Te'o, and Jeremiah Attaochu. Verrett has a torn labrum, but hopefully other players can use the bye in Week 10 to mend their injuries and return to the field.

17. San Francisco 49ers [10] — They have never lost more than four games under Jim Harbaugh, but will have to win their last eight in a row to continue that trend; the team is 4-4 now. In the Harbaugh era, they're 40-15-1 (.723) and the Rams are 19-36-1 (.348). But Harbaugh is just 5-2-1 (.688) against St. Louis, worse than his record against average teams. For some reason, the Rams give San Francisco trouble.

18. Cincinnati Bengals [15] — One of seven teams still undefeated at home. The others are Denver, New England, Arizona, Philadelphia, Green Bay, and New Orleans. Last year's home playoff loss looks stranger every week.

19. Cleveland Browns [20] — I love Rotoworld. It's a phenomenal resource for injury information and for fantasy football in particular. But sometimes a fantasy focus conflicts with a team's best interests. The site posted this on Saturday, about starting QB Brian Hoyer:

"Accuracy is a trait that rarely improves in the NFL. Hoyer has benefited from Kyle Shanahan's play-calling and a favorable schedule (.375 opponent winning percentage), but there remain concerns about his ball placement and arm strength ... A 29-year-old journeyman, Hoyer is in a contract year and not the long-term answer at quarterback. The Browns are going to need to make an evaluation on Johnny Manziel at some point." (emphasis mine)

The Browns used a first-round draft pick on Manziel six months ago. The idea that the team needs to see him over the last eight games — that they might make other plans and move on with a different QB if he struggles — is entirely beyond the realm of possibility. Manziel could play like JaMarcus Russell or Helpless Blaine Gabbert and it wouldn't change anything: he's their quarterback of the future. But sometimes young QBs, like Mark Sanchez and HBG, get thrown into the fire before they're ready, and it stunts their development. I think the Browns have a great plan, letting Hoyer play this year. Next season, someone else will pay Hoyer, and Manziel can have a full offseason working with the first team, hopefully including Josh Gordon and a healthy Jordan Cameron. Hoyer's not exciting in fantasy, and Manziel could be (rushing touchdowns!), but I believe it's in the team's long-term interests to let Hoyer play for now. The Browns are 5-3, with more wins than all of last season (4-12). It's pretty silly to suggest the starting quarterback should be benched.

20. St. Louis Rams [24] — They got a big win this week, but can we cool it with the Hall of Fame comparisons for Austin Davis?

21. Houston Texans [19] — Arian Foster left this week's game with a groin injury of unspecified severity. The team describes his status as "day to day", and with a Week 10 bye, there's reason for optimism about Foster's status going forward.

22. Washington [22] — A week after they beat the Cowboys with constant blitzing, they came into Minnesota with a strange, passive defensive gameplan for rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. But you don't care about that. Let's discuss Robert Griffin III. He made some nice plays on Sunday, but overall, he did not look sharp. Griffin took five sacks, most or all of which were the result of his holding the ball too long. He didn't seem to sense the pressure or have a feel for his timing, and he didn't escape the pocket. It was probably just rust from a QB who hadn't played since Week 2, but it was not a triumphant comeback.

23. New York Giants [21] — A terrible game, obviously, just going through the motions. And — I know the expression is "adding insult to injury", but in this case it's really the other way around — they lost Prince Amukamara to a torn biceps, presumably ending his season. But let's look on the bright side, as best we're able. Odell Beckham had a great second half (7 rec, 137 yds) and looks like he can become an outstanding player. The even bigger breakout star of Monday's game was defensive lineman Robert Ayers. The final stats aren't overwhelming: 3 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble. Good game, but not mind-blowing. The stats don't tell the story here — Ayers was mind-blowing. He's credited with 7 hits on Andrew Luck, which is amazing (okay, I guess that is a stat), and he was incredibly disruptive for the first three quarters (he kind of disappeared after that). Ayers played at a really, really high level against the league's top-ranked offense. This is his sixth season (the first five were in Denver), and he's never been a star, but Ayers flashed genuine talent on Monday night.

24. Carolina Panthers [23] — Bad games from their two biggest stars, Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly. Newton repeatedly missed his receivers, and consistently misjudged his touch on the ball. He went 10-of-28 for 151 yards and an interception. Including sacks and rushing, Newton had 39 plays for 165 yards, a TD, and 2 turnovers. Those are very poor numbers, and Newton was at least as bad as they suggest. Kuechly finished the game with two solo tackles and six assists. The "assists" stat is almost meaningless; on a couple of those plays, the runner was down and Kuechly jumped in at the end. He bit on every fake and was rarely in position to make a play.

A lot of people are hard on Newton, but I've never heard a bad word about Kuechly, who is the most overrated player in the NFL right now. I don't know why announcers have decided to convince everyone that Kuechly is the new Ray Lewis. Kuechly is not a big-play defender. This season, he has four tackles for loss, and no takeaways. He is not a great linebacker. This is his worst season — every team has the scouting report; they know he'll run himself out of position — but it's his third year in the league, and I've never seen him have a great game. Kuechly is above average. His fame is a product of statistical carelessness and TV hype.

25. Minnesota Vikings [26] — Everson Griffen is quietly tied for second in the NFL in sacks (9). It's not a fluke. Griffen looks like a legitimately excellent player. Matt Asiata scored three short-yardage TDs but did none of the work to set them up; Griffen was the clear standout performer in Sunday's victory over Washington.

26. Chicago Bears [25] — Matt Forte has 562 rushing yards and 490 receiving yards. He's nearly on pace to join Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk as the only players to gain 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 receiving in the same season.

27. New York Jets [27] — They've lost eight in a row, could easily rank lower than this. But the problem is obvious and fixable: the Jets are -15 in turnover differential, by far the worst in the NFL (the Eagles and Raiders are next, -10). If the Jets take better care of the football, or start generating takeaways, they could be something like average.

The Jets have the worst pass defense in the NFL. They're 12th-best in yards per game, but last in passer rating allowed: 112.8. That's a higher passer rating than Peyton Manning (112.0); basically, every QB who plays against the Jets performs like Peyton Manning. The Jets have allowed 24 passing TDs and have generated only one interception. That's by far the most TDs allowed (next-worst is 18) and the fewest INTs (next-worst is 3).

28. Atlanta Falcons [28] — With six teams on bye, this was a devastating week for many fantasy football owners. The hardest-hit positions were QB and WR, in part because Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White were all inactive. Atlanta is having a bad season, but still ranks 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game.

29. Tennessee Titans [30] — The bye week is an opportunity to address problems, and Tennessee's biggest problem is third down percentage. The Titans convert only 30% of their third down opportunities, the lowest figure in the NFL. There's no reason a team with an even turnover differential should be 2-6 in the weakest division in the league.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — Third straight season they've been 1-8. Think about that for a moment. That's nuts.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [29] — Can they break the blowout cycle? Every third game, the Bucs have been humiliated: 56-14 at Atlanta and 48-17 against the Ravens, with both games even worse than the score implies. Those were Game 3 and Game 6 ... next week brings Game 9, a home rematch with the Falcons. Oddsmakers have the game as pick 'em.

32. Oakland Raiders [32] — Only team in the NFL averaging under 300 yards per game (288.6). Five teams average over 400 yards a game.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:02 PM | Comments (0)

November 3, 2014

College Playoff Picture Still a Mess

Relax, college football fans.

There's not going to be three teams from the SEC West in the College Football Playoff. There will be one, without question. But not three.

The revelation of the first CFP rankings really didn't say much. It did, however, coupled with this weekend's actions, throw a few tidbits of what could be in our direction.

Mississippi State and Florida State, having dodged major obstacles this past week, still control their own destiny. Jameis Winston or no Jameis Winston, it looks as if the Seminoles have a pretty clear path to the playoff. FSU plays three of their last four at home and would be a pretty solid favorite to take down Duke, Georgia Tech or anyone else in the Coastal Division.

The path for Dan Mullen's Bulldogs, however, is much more difficult. A showdown in Tuscaloosa with Nick Saban and the Tide awaits in two weeks; then two weeks later the battle for the Golden Egg with Ole Miss goes down in Oxford. Should MSU survive those games, they'll be the top seed heading to New Orleans. However, that's much easier said than done. Nick Saban, on the outside looking in, will have his team pumped, while Ole Miss will be dangerous even without Laquan Treadwell.

Say Alabama takes down Mississippi State. That would set up the Iron Bowl as the de facto championship of the SEC West yet again, provided Auburn beats Georgia (oh, the what ifs of the SEC). If the Tide win out, they're in the playoff. If MSU loses to 'Bama, yet takes down Ole Miss, chances still look good for the Bulldogs. If Auburn wins out, they'd be in as well, even if Mississippi State runs the table and wins the SEC. Being ranked third helped immensely for the Tigers. The fact Bill Snyder couldn't find a kicker in Manhattan when Auburn showed up helped immensely too.

Speaking of Kansas State, they're in good shape, but they need Auburn to keep winning. Their close battle helped vault Auburn into solid CFP position and if both teams win out, it might be what helps the Wildcats into that crucial fourth spot. TCU and Kansas State will play an elimination game this weekend. Should TCU win, expect Baylor's Art Briles to run it up on everyone he possibly can. TCU put 82 on Texas Tech? Baylor will aim for more. The Bears need style points to survive that West Virginia loss as Alabama, who beat the Mountaineers, has the better positioning. For Baylor to have a shot, they've got to win out, which won't be easy with Oklahoma and Kansas State on the schedule. They also have to hope Mississippi State or Auburn trip up the Tide.

So Florida State, and whoever survives the SEC West are likely locks. The Big 12 has some interesting candidates. However, if I had to guess the CFP's top four next Tuesday, I'd have Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, and Oregon. So, what about Oregon?

The Ducks survived the Stanford hurdle and have a nice shot to finish strong. Oregon needs to win their conference, but more so, they need the Pac-12 South to clear up and have a highly ranked division winner to make that title look better. A great candidate would be Arizona State, who still faces Notre Dame with the remainder of their conference slate. A convincing Sun Devil win over the Irish would be of massive aid to the Duck cause. Oregon's win over Michigan State pretty much took the Big Ten out of consideration; however, with the SEC West perched all over the top of college football, Florida State in cruise control and the Big 12 having several candidates, Oregon has to win games big from here on out to garner attention, help Marcus Mariota win the Heisman and coast into Pasadena.

So the first edition of the CFP poll provided few answers and kept the picture murky. This week's poll will do the same. There's a lot to be decided before the CFP committee has pressure taken to another level, so don't take things too seriously ... yet.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 12:34 PM | Comments (0)