Five Quick Hits
* Everyone is hung up on Mike Nugent's missed 36-yard field goal that led to a tie, but earlier in the same game, Carolina's Graham Gano missed a 38-yarder that might have put the game out of reach and avoided overtime.
* I keep seeing commercials for "the official training restaurant" of Robert Griffin III, Justin Tuck, and Anthony Barr. Griffin can't stay healthy, Tuck is a has-been, and their three teams are a combined 3-14. Maybe those guys should train somewhere else.
* Eli Manning was sacked six times on Sunday night, only the fourth time in his career he's taken more than five sacks in a game.
* I believe in the Wembley curse. The Falcons and Lions play there in Week 8. They'll both lose in Week 7.
* Just for you, Al Michaels: my favorite W.C. Fields quote ... "Always carry a flagon of whiskey in case of snakebite and furthermore always carry a small snake."
Week 6 Rant: Ranking Cowboys
Adam Rank does a fun, meandering column for NFL.com. In this week's, he took issue with Tony Romo's claim that Jason Witten might be the best Cowboy of all time. And yeah, it was a silly thing to say, but guys do that sort of thing for contemporaries and teammates all the time. Romo was wrong, but I can let it slide.
What I am not chill enough to let slide is Rank's rebuttal: "I could probably name 20 Cowboys better. Actually, I will. Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, Emmitt Smith, Charles Haley, Jay Novacek, Darren Woodson, Roger Staubach, Bob Lily [sic], Chuck Howley, Randy White, Tony Dorsett, Don Perkins, Dez Bryant, Deion Sanders, Larry Allen, Drew Pearson, Bob Hayes, Rayfield Wright, Mike Ditka, and Lance Alworth. All right, I need to stop. Erik Williams. Mark Stepnoski. Harvey Martin."
I would assume the list is a joke, except that Rank seems very serious and very upset about this. Okay, Emmitt, Staubach, and Lilly are obvious. White, Dorsett, and Allen, fine. Aikman, Irvin, Woodson, Howley, Sanders, Hayes, and Wright are debatable. That's 13. The other 10 (he named 23) are clearly wrong.
Mike Ditka and Lance Alworth were great players who had all their great seasons on other teams (Bears and Chargers). Ditka's a better choice than Alworth, but he's nowhere near this list unless you count his time in Chicago. Jason Witten has caught 900 passes for the Cowboys. Alworth caught 49. Ditka caught 72. A little short of 900.
For that matter, Dez Bryant has 329 receptions. You'd rather take a receiver who's been good for 2½ seasons than a tight end who has been among the best at his position for a decade? And Jay Novacek, really? Novacek played six seasons for the Cowboys, during which he caught 339 passes for 3,576 yards and 22 TDs. He made five Pro Bowls and he was all-pro in 1992. This is Witten's 12th season in Dallas, with 900 receptions for 10,038 yards and 53 TDs — about 2.5 times Novacek's totals. Witten has made nine Pro Bowls and he's been all-pro twice. Adam Rank is the only person on the planet, including Jay Novacek's mom, who thinks Novacek was a better tight end than Witten.
Charles Haley was a good pass rusher, not a Hall of Famer, but a good player, who was with the Cowboys for five seasons, during which he had 34 sacks and made two Pro Bowls. Drew Pearson ... I've written about Pearson at length. He was a good receiver who came up big in some important games, but he only had about six seasons as an effective player, a very short prime for his position.
Don Perkins was a good running back on bad teams. He's not one of the top 100 RBs of all time. Perkins never ranked among the top four rushers in his 12-team league, and he wasn't a good receiver. Jason Witten is 10 times the player Perkins was. Erik Williams was a star for about three seasons. Stepnoski and Martin were good players, but Witten has a Hall of Fame-caliber résumé. He's one of the best receiving tight ends of his generation (which is stacked with great TEs), and he's a good blocker. Witten is not the best Cowboy ever, but he might be top-five, and he's definitely top-10.
I wouldn't put any of these players ahead of Witten, but Rank would have been better served to include Cowboy greats like Cliff Harris, Daryl Johnston, Mel Renfro, Romo himself, DeMarcus Ware, and, I don't know, Lee Roy Jordan? Ralph Neely? Too Tall? I guess those guys aren't any better than Pearson and Stepnoski.
I don't like Jason Witten, but he's one of the 10 best tight ends in NFL history. Since Rank put a list out there for jerks like me to tear apart, it's only fair that I do the same. Here are my top 10 TEs of all time, off the top of my head: Dave Casper, Mike Ditka, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, John Mackey, Ozzie Newsome, Shannon Sharpe, Jackie Smith, Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten. If you want to sub in someone like Mark Bavaro, Todd Christensen, or Charlie Sanders, I probably wouldn't argue with that, but you're not subbing out Witten, you're dropping Newsome or Jackie Smith, or maybe Shannon Sharpe.
2014 Week Six NFL Power Rankings
Brackets show last week's rank.
1. Denver Broncos [1] — This was Peyton Manning's 88th regular season 3-TD game, 94th counting playoffs. Most 3-TD games:
1. Manning, 94
2. Brett Favre, 78
3. Dan Marino, 67
4. Drew Brees, 64
5. Tom Brady, 60
No one else even has 50, though Aaron Rodgers (43) and Philip Rivers (38) will probably get there.
2. San Diego Chargers [4] — No one's really talking about Keenan Allen as a fantasy bust. He's fourth on the team in receiving yards (296, 49/gm) and has yet to score a touchdown. In Yahoo leagues, Allen's ADP was 29.4, the 10th wide receiver taken. I know third-round picks aren't sexy busts, but if Allen was your WR1, your team is probably struggling.
It makes sense in context, but I typed "sexy busts" just for page views. As long as we're at it, George Clooney's wedding.
3. Seattle Seahawks [3] — Second time this year an opponent has scored 30 points. Last year they allowed 30 only once all season. The Seahawks rank 15th in scoring defense — average. They lost three starters from last year's Super Bowl defense: Brandon Browner, Chris Clemons, and Clinton McDonald, plus Red Bryant, who started 15 games in the regular season. The Seattle defense hasn't looked great since Week 1.
4. Arizona Cardinals [5] — Only team that hasn't thrown an interception this season. Considering they've used three different QBs (and Ted Ginn), that's remarkable. Drew Stanton has the most pass attempts (88) of anyone without an INT, and Carson Palmer is second (81). Palmer looked good on Sunday, but it's difficult to evaluate anyone against Washington's defense.
5. San Francisco 49ers [7] — Obviously Mike Tirico doesn't read my column. On Monday night, Tirico told viewers, "Andy Lee will kick it away. In addition to that great career average, he has always been good at net punting yards, pinning the opponent inside the 20 or the 10." This is false.
I don't bring this up to embarrass Tirico, because I believe he's a bright guy who cares about doing a good job. Tirico understands that net average is more important than gross average. That's an important step — gross punting average is the worst stat in sports, even worse than saves in baseball, but it's still the most common stat for punters. Tirico mentions net average often, which means that even for an area of the game which many folks in the media ignore, Tirico cares about getting it right. Here's how he can.
Andy Lee is not good at pinning opponents deep. This is easily apparent in the stats, the relevant figures being I20 (punts down inside the 20-yard line) and TB (touchbacks). Lee's first season was 2004. The chart below shows league-wide I20-to-TB ratio every season since '04, along with Lee's ratio. Higher numbers are better.
Lee has been worse than league average in eight of his 10 seasons, including last year. He's a pretty good punter, and he does have good net averages, but to say he "he has always been good at ... pinning the opponent inside the 20" is demonstrably false. These aren't complicated stats, and they're publicly available. Again, this isn't to insult anyone, just to assist. I don't expect announcers to slam Lee to their viewers, but there's an easy way to make sure you aren't deceiving them.
Saying that Andy Lee is good at pinning opponents deep is like telling viewers that Colin Kaepernick is good at clock management. They're both good players, but those areas are not among their strengths.
6. Cincinnati Bengals [2] — Eighty points allowed the last two weeks, and they're about to play the Colts, who lead the NFL in scoring and yards.
7. Dallas Cowboys [10] — DeMarco Murray has at least 22 rush attempts in every game this season, one of only three players in history to carry 22 times in each of the first six games. The others were Emmitt Smith in 1999 and Priest Holmes in 2002.
Years ago, Jason Lisk identified 25 carries as approximately the point for what we might consider increased risk games. The only players in the last decade who had at least 25 attempts in half their games: Larry Johnson in 2006, Michael Turner in 2008, and Arian Foster in 2012. All of them got hurt the next season. Johnson and Foster missed eight games each, while Turner missed five.
Johnson's season is particularly worrisome. L.J. turned 27 that year. From 2003-06, he rushed for 4,205 yards, with a 4.71 average and 47 TDs. Afterwards, he had 2,018 yards with a 3.77 average and 8 TDs. The heavy workload ruined his career. Lisk found distinctly higher risk at 28+ rush attempts in a game, a mark Johnson reached eight times that year, tying the record set by Jamal Anderson in 1998, another career-ruining season. Murray already has three games this season with at least 29 rush attempts.
DeMarco Murray turns 27 in February. His career-high rushing attempts is 217, last year. He's on pace to break that in the first quarter of Week 9, basically halfway through the season. Murray is playing great, an MVP candidate. But the Cowboys are going to get him killed.
8. Green Bay Packers [6] — Their top two cornerbacks, Sam Shields and Tramon Williams, both left with injuries in the third quarter, and Ryan Tannehill took advantage. The difference between Tannehill in the first and second halves is pretty stark:
1st: 77 yds, 2 INT, 26.0 passer rating
2nd: 160 yds, 2 TD, 150.7 passer rating
As of this writing, their status is not clear, but missing one or both would be a big deal. The Packers face Cam Newton in Week 7 and Drew Brees in Week 8.
9. Indianapolis Colts [8] — The difference in Thursday's game was third down percentage: 50% for Indianapolis (8/16), 12.5% for Houston (1/8); the Colts converted eight times as many third downs as the Texans. Of particular note, the Colts repeatedly converted on third and long, including 3rd-and-15, 3rd-and-13, 3rd-and-10, and 3rd-and-9 twice. That's five third downs from 9 yards and beyond.
10. Baltimore Ravens [9] — Game was over in the first quarter. Here are Baltimore's first five possessions:
4 plays, 80 yards, touchdown
4 plays, 22 yards, touchdown
7 plays, 50 yards, touchdown
7 plays, 57 yards, touchdown
2 plays, 59 yards, touchdown
On those drives, Justin Forsett carried six times for 74 yards, and Joe Flacco was 10-of-13 for 196 yards and 5 TDs. Here are Tampa's first five drives:
6 plays, 25 yards, interception
3 plays, -1 yard, punt
3 plays, -9 yards, punt
3 plays, no yards, punt
3 plays, no yards, punt
It was 28-0 after the first quarter, 38-0 at halftime. The Ravens had more points at the end of the first quarter than the Bucs had yards.
11. Philadelphia Eagles [11] — Good news for the Eagles: Darren Sproles has a sprained MCL, which is not a long-term injury. Philadelphia has a bye in Week 7, so Sproles shouldn't miss much time. The win over New York was Philadelphia's first shutout victory since December 1996. Defensive coordinator Billy Davis and assistant head coach Jerry Azzinaro aren't as well-known as Jim Johnson, who coordinated great Eagle defenses from 1998-2009, but this was the team's first shutout since head coach Ray Rhodes and defensive coordinator Emmitt Thomas.
12. Kansas City Chiefs [12] — Best third down percentages in the NFL:
1. Dallas Cowboys, 56%
2. New Orleans Saints, 55%
3. San Diego Chargers, 54%
4. Kansas City Chiefs, 51%
No one else is over 50%.
13. New England Patriots [13] — Costly victory, losing Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley to season-ending injuries. New England's defense forced three turnovers against Buffalo, an interception and two fumbles. The Patriots and Packers lead the NFL in turnover differential, +9.
14. Buffalo Bills [16] — They move up because Detroit moved up, and I still think the Bills are better than the Lions. I mentioned last week that players carried Jim Schwartz off the field on their shoulders, but I didn't realize at the time that he asked them to. That's weak.
15. Detroit Lions [17] — New kicker Matt Prater missed two field goals! That's 10 misses for Detroit this season, by far the most in the NFL. Next is Cincinnati, with six, and no one else has more than three. The Lions are 33% on FG attempts this year; everyone else is at least 64%. Per Kevin Patra, "The Lions have now missed more field goals (10) in six games than [longtime Lions kicker Jason] Hanson missed in any one season (9)."
As bad as the kicking has been, the defense has been equally great. Defensive lineman Nick Fairley said this weekend that he believes, "We can be the best ever." That's unlikely, but the Lions are off to a great start. They lead the NFL in yards allowed (270.7) and points allowed (13.7). They're 2nd in rush defense, 2nd in pass defense, they allow the fewest first downs per game (16.8) and the second-lowest third-down percentage (31%). Opponents average 3.27 yards per rush (3rd-best) and a 73.2 passer rating (also 3rd). The Lions lead the NFL in sacks (20).
So yes, this defense is playing terrific football. But they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents: Giants, Panthers, Packers, Jets, Bills, Vikings. Not one of those teams is above average in yards per game, and only the Packers are above average in points. If Detroit can do this to the Saints and Falcons the next two weeks, we can start taking Fairley seriously.
16. Cleveland Browns [22] — In 1980, they were the Kardiac Kids. This season, the first four games were all decided by a field goal or less. They lost to Pittsburgh by 3, beat the Saints by 2, lost to the Ravens by 2, edged the Titans by 1. The Browns finally broke the trend with this week's 31-10 thumping of a hated rival.
17. Chicago Bears [20] — Willie Young leads the NFL in sacks (7). In his first four seasons, all with Detroit, Young had 6 sacks. The Bears are using him as a pass-rush specialist, not an every-down player, but he's fourth on the team in tackles, he blocked a field goal against Green Bay, and he had at least one sack in five of the team's first six games.
18. Houston Texans [15] — I like Mike Carey and what he brings to CBS broadcasts, basically the same role played by Mike Pereira on FOX. But on Thursday night, when it was unclear whether Andre Johnson dropped a pass or fumbled, Carey said, "It's pretty obvious he never got the ball put away." It wasn't obvious at all; I thought he caught it. Referee Ronald Tolbert and the replay officials got it right: in the absence of indisputable evidence, the call stands.
19. Miami Dolphins [19] — Tried one of those plays with the crazy laterals at the end. When those get going with more than two or three successful laterals, they're just so much fun. Did you catch Ryan Tannehill's missile throw across the field? You expect the QB to have the best arm on the team, but holy cow. That nearly set up a break down the sideline. More teams should get their QBs involved on those plays. Get the quarterback on one side of the field and your best returner on the other, and have him rifle it across. Easier said than done, but good shot at a sensational touchdown if you can pull it off.
20. New York Giants [14] — The Giants have been shut out four times in their last 25 games. Last 10 NFL shutouts:
10/12/2014: Eagles 27, Giants 0
10/05/2014: Chargers 31, Jets 0
12/22/2013: Bills 19, Dolphins 0
12/15/2013: Seahawks 23, Giants 0
09/22/2013: Panthers 38, Giants 0
12/30/2012: Patriots 28, Dolphins 0
12/16/2012: Saints 41, Buccaneers 0
12/16/2012: Falcons 34, Giants 0
12/16/2012: Raiders 15, Chiefs 0
12/09/2012: Seahawks 58, Cardinals 0
The Giants were terrible last season, but this year's team seemed to be moving in the right direction. It's hard to understand how this happens to a team that scored 105 points in the last three weeks, 30 or more in every game.
21. Carolina Panthers [24] — What happened to Riverboat Ron? Down by 3 with 2:24 left in overtime, the Panthers had 4th-and-1 on the Cincinnati 18. There's no realistic chance of winning if you kick the field goal there; with only one timeout remaining, two minutes isn't enough time to force a three-and-out and drive for the score. You're setting up the opponent for a two-minute drill where all they need is a field goal, and the best you can do is tie.
A timid coach would kick the field goal and play for the tie, but a bold gambler like head coach Ron Rivera would surely keep his offense on the field, pick up the one yard, and go for the win. A touchdown ends the game, Panthers victory. Rivera sent out Graham Gano — who had already missed a short field goal — to go for the tie. Gano made the kick this time, but the Bengals got the ball back with 2:19 and drove into field goal range, where Mike Nugent miraculously missed from just 36 yards. Rivera's conservative coaching could have and probably should have cost Carolina a loss.
This was reported as the highest-scoring tie in NFL history, and strictly speaking, it is. But the NFL recognizes AFL records, which makes it the third-highest-scoring tie, behind Patriots-Raiders in 1964 (43-43) and Bills-Broncos in 1960 (38-38). There were five NFL games that ended in a 35-35 tie (the old record), the most recent being in 1974 (the first year with regular-season overtime), between the Broncos and the Super Bowl-bound Steelers. The Falcons and Steelers tied 34-34 in 2002, with Michael Vick and Tommy Maddox at QB.
22. Atlanta Falcons [18] — The Bills and Chiefs have yet to allow a rushing TD this season. Four teams have allowed 2, seven teams have given up 3, four yielded 4, six teams have allowed 5 rushing TDs, four allowed 6, four gave up 7, and the Falcons have yielded an incredible 12 rushing touchdowns.
23. New Orleans Saints [23] — Jimmy Graham's shoulder injury is more serious than initially reported. Even following this week's bye, he'll probably miss several games.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers [21] — Opened the regular season with a close win over the Browns, and they've had one really good performance, a 37-19 win at Carolina. But the other four games were stinkers: a close win over the hapless Jaguars, a loss to the hapless Bucs, and blowout losses to a pair of division rivals. The next three are at home against good teams, followed by two road games against awful teams. An average team would probably win 2-3 of those. I'll give the Steelers two.
25. St. Louis Rams [25] — Their rookie linemen on offense (Greg Robinson) and defense (Aaron Donald) looked good against San Francisco, but QB Austin Davis did not. Davis took needless sacks because he refused to throw the ball away, and he looked lost in the second half. The game-clinching interception was atrocious: poor decision-making and a weak throw. The kid has spunk, I guess, but he's not the next Kurt Warner.
26. Washington [28] — Kirk Cousins played great in Weeks 2 and 3, generating buzz that he might unseat Robert Griffin and become one of the better starting QBs in the league. Three weeks later, Cousins looks like a backup. He's been effective coming off the bench, and he's had some good games, but he's not consistent and he doesn't have RG3's sensational play-making. Cousins leads the NFL in interceptions (8).
27. New York Jets [29] — Tied with Washington for the worst turnover differential (-9) in the NFL. Obviously Geno Smith needs to take better care of the ball, but you'd like to see the defense force some turnovers, too. Jets defenders have only intercepted one pass all season.
28. Minnesota Vikings [27] — Teddy Bridgewater threw 3 interceptions in their 17-3 loss to Detroit. He joins a proud tradition of rookie QBs who experienced growing pains. Among active players, here are the rookie QBs who had the most games with 3 or more INTs:
4 games: Mark Sanchez
3 games: Peyton Manning, Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck
Russell Wilson had a three-INT game as a rookie, Joe Flacco did ... it's not good, but it doesn't mean Bridgewater can't have a bright future.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Worst in the NFL in yards allowed (423/gm) and points allowed (34.0/gm). Their last four opponents have combined for 165 points, 41 per game, and the losses to Atlanta and Baltimore were embarrassing, probably the two worst games in the NFL this season.
30. Tennessee Titans [30] — The worst matchup of the week provided an exciting finish that some of the marquee games didn't. The Jaguars scored with under a minute remaining, recovered an onside kick, and attempted a go-ahead field goal with :12 left. Tennessee nose tackle Sammie Lee Hill blocked the kick to clinch a victory. Hill, listed at 6-4, 328, has also deflected four passes this season.
31. Oakland Raiders [31] — Derek Carr threw four touchdown passes this weekend. The other rookie QBs who are starting, Jacksonville's Blake Bortles and Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater, have combined for 4 TDs and 10 INTs. Carr has twice as many touchdowns (8) and half as many picks (5). But it's not just rookies to whom Carr compares favorably. Best sack percentages among QBs:
1. Andy Dalton, 1.31%
2. Derek Carr, 1.76%
3. Drew Brees, 1.80%
4. Nick Foles, 2.87%
5. Peyton Manning, 3.05%
The rookie record is 1.83%, by Joey Harrington in 2002. The record by a rookie with a passer rating over 60 is 3.27%, by Dan Marino in 1983.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — Fourth year in a row starting 1-5 or worse.
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