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September 30, 2014

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The Raiders have fired head coach Dennis Allen. The new HC will be Oakland's ninth in the last 14 years. No Raider coach has lasted three full seasons since Jon Gruden from 1998-2001. This franchise is run by children.

* Week 4 is too early for byes. The bye schedule this year is really weird, actually.

* Yahoo! called the play on which Michael Crabtree's helmet fell off "scary" and "brutal". That's pretty shameless sensationalism.

* This is the first season since 2010 that no one is 4-0 after Week 4. I thought it would be further back than that.

* Last week, the Seahawks won the coin toss in overtime, and Peyton Manning never got the ball, prompting FOX to address the overtime rules on this week's pregame show. I largely agree with Curt Menefee, Michael Strahan, and Jimmy Johnson, but I still believe there's a better way to do overtime.

* * *

Running Quarterbacks Win Super Bowls

One of the dumbest ideas in sports is the oft-cited trope that running quarterbacks don't win Super Bowls. I actually wrote an entire article debunking this last year, but I heard it again last weekend at my cousin's wedding, from a guy who otherwise has some pretty smart ideas about the game. He said that until Russell Wilson last year, no running quarterback had ever won a Super Bowl. That isn't true, and is in fact ridiculous.

Any definition of "running quarterback" that doesn't include Roger Staubach and Steve Young is a fairy tale. If all you mean by "running QB" is Bobby Douglass, Michael Vick, and a handful of guys who are 23, you might as well say that a unicorn has never won a Super Bowl. You're not talking about a type of player, you're talking about Vick and maybe Randall Cunningham (Douglass didn't have a real career).

The run-first QB is a myth. Such a player hasn't existed in 40 years, and has never had a sustained career since quarterbacks replaced the old triple-threat tailbacks of the 1930s. Other than Douglass, who only started a few seasons, the Super Bowl-era record for rush-to-pass ratio by a QB who started at least 12 games is Vick in 2004, when he ran on 24.6% of his plays, 120 rushes and 367 passes or sacks. Cunningham's career-high was 18.7% (1990), and that's counting kneel-downs and QB sneaks as rushes. The highest career mark by a quarterback who started more than five seasons is Vick's 20.0%. No one else is over 15%, the closest being Cunningham (14.0) and Young (13.8).

"Running QB" is often code for "black guy," and I think the "running quarterback has never won a Super Bowl" assertion was invented to diminish black QBs. But it's been repeated so many times over the years that people who aren't racist at all assume it must be true. The problem is, an equally compelling argument can be made that passing QBs don't win Super Bowls. No quarterback who led the league in passing yards has ever won a Super Bowl. The last championship quarterback to lead the league in passing was George Blanda, for the Houston Oilers in the 1961 AFL. The last NFL QB was Johnny Unitas in 1959. Since the AFL merger, only four players who ranked top-three in passing yardage have won the Super Bowl that year. In comparison, seven QBs who ranked top-three in rushing yardage have led teams to Super Bowl victories, including Young, who gained the most rushing yards and TDs of any QB in 1994, when the 49ers won Super Bowl XXIX.

In every era, it's clear that running quarterbacks win more often than those who don't run. Fran Tarkenton (8.7% rushes) was a legendary scrambler, but Roger Staubach (11.1%) and Terry Bradshaw (9.5%) ran more frequently. Joe Montana rushed more than twice as often (7.4) as Dan Fouts (3.6) or Dan Marino (3.4). Aaron Rodgers has basically the same percentage as Donovan McNabb (9.5 and 9.6, respectively). For that matter, Staubach and Bradshaw rushed more frequently, in their first Super Bowl years (14.9% and 17.7%, respectively), than McNabb (13.9%) ever did.

Running quarterbacks have always won championships, from Bobby Layne in the '50s to Staubach and Young and Russell Wilson. Staubach ranked among the top 10 rushing QBs every season he was a starter, including top-three in 1971, '74, and '75. Young finished among the top three QBs in rushing yardage eight times, most in history, and his 43 rushing TDs are the most by any QB in the Super Bowl era. Wilson has rushed for over 400 yards in both of his first two seasons, one of only 25 modern QBs ever to rush for 400 in a season. The idea that players like this don't win championships is rooted in fear of people who are different, and it's clearly false. Please don't believe everything you hear on TV.

Rant over. Let's get to the power ratings. Brackets show previous rank.

1. Cincinnati Bengals [1] — Lead the NFL in fewest points allowed per game. They held the mighty Atlanta offense to 10, and the season-high is 16, by the Ravens in Baltimore. The Falcons have scored 16 TDs in their other three games, at least four every week, but only one against the Bengals. Carlos Dunlap leads the defense with 3 sacks, while safeties Reggie Nelson and George Iloka combine for 6 passes defensed, including 3 interceptions.

2. Denver Broncos [2] — One of four teams that is undefeated at home and winless on the road. The others are Atlanta, New Orleans, and Seattle. The Broncos and Seahawks are 2-0 at home, 0-1 away. The Falcons are 2-0 vs. 0-2, and the Saints are 1-0 at home, 0-3 on the road.

3. Seattle Seahawks [3] — I'd love a Seahawk/Bronco trilogy game in Super Bowl XLIX, but it would also be fun to see a Seattle/San Diego rematch, given the Chargers' comments about Richard Sherman.

4. San Diego Chargers [4] — Last week, backup RB Donald Brown carried 31 times for 62 yards, a putrid 2.0 average. This week, facing the horrid Jacksonville defense, he was even worse, 10 attempts for 19 yards. On the season, Brown now has 50 rushes for 100 yards. No player has averaged 2.0 or worse in a season with at least 50 attempts since Louis Carter on the 1977 Tampa Bay Bucs (59 att, 117 yds, 1.98 avg).

5. Arizona Cardinals [6] — Carson Palmer looked great in Week 1 (304 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT), but he missed the last two games with nerve issues in his throwing shoulder. Palmer is expected to start Week 5 at Denver.

6. San Francisco 49ers [10] — Won with defense, holding the mighty Eagles to 11 first downs, 213 yards, and no offensive points. Antoine Bethea had a tremendous game, with 7 solo tackles, a forced fumble that led to a turnover, an interception, and a tipped pass that created another interception.

In the fourth quarter, Joe Buck demonstrated the perils of misusing statistics and accepting conventional wisdom. Andy Lee is a three-time all-pro punter. People assume Lee is a good punter because he has good averages. Believing that Lee is a good punter, people assume he is good at all aspects of punting, which he's not. Here's what Buck said on Sunday: "And now Lee will try to pin them back — one of the best in the game at this very skill. And now he bangs one into the back of the end zone." The punt bounced off the back line of the end zone, nowhere near the field of play. And that's not surprising, because Lee is a below-average punter when it comes to pinning opponents. His ratio of I20 (punts down inside the 20) to touchbacks is 3.27, compared to a league-wide average of about 3.5. Lee is not a great punter, and pinning opponents deep is one of his weaknesses, not one of his strengths.

7. Detroit Lions [11] — Another team winning with defense. Would you believe their offense ranks 23rd in points per game (21.2)? Detroit leads the NFL in total defense and allows only 15.5 ppg. The Lions haven't faced anyone with a winning record, and they're not scheduled to face a team that currently has a winning record until Week 11 at Arizona.

8. Indianapolis Colts [12] — Lead the NFL in scoring (136 points, 34.0/gm), yardage (444.0/gm, tied with Atlanta), passing yards (326.0), passing TDs (13), and average time of possession (35:49).

9. Green Bay Packers [13] — Fifth straight win at Soldier Field. Terry McAulay's officiating crew made it clear early in the game that they would not tolerate defensive plays, and were rewarded by a 60-minute game with no punts, for only the second time in history. The first was September 13, 1992: Bills 34, 49ers 31 in San Francisco.

10. Baltimore Ravens [14] — Don't mess with Steve Smith.

11. Atlanta Falcons [5] — It seems like the NFC South isn't as good as we thought. The teams are a combined 6-10, and if you exclude division games, they're just 3-7. The Falcons gave up 558 yards and 41 points to a Minnesota team that had 460 yards and 16 points in its last two games combined. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, making his first NFL start, finished with over 300 yards, a rushing TD, no sacks and no turnovers.

12. Philadelphia Eagles [7] — Scored on a blocked punt, an interception return, and a punt return. It was Philadelphia's first game returning a blocked punt for a touchdown since November 1992 — when they scored on a blocked punt, an interception return, and a punt return in the same game. Eerie. FOX reported that before the Eagles' loss, teams with three return TDs in a game were 71-1-1 (.979).

13. Dallas Cowboys [19] — Three straight wins after an ugly opening-week loss. You know what's crazy? DeMarco Murray is on pace to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record ... but barely, only by about 25 yards. Can you imagine owning Dickerson in fantasy in 1984? Another parallel: Dickerson fumbled 14 times that season. The game has changed, and 14 is unplayable in modern football, but if an occasional fumble is the price for Murray's brilliance and broken tackles, it's worth it.

14. New Orleans Saints [9] — When was the last time Drew Brees and Tom Brady both played scoreless first halves? I think it was Week 1 of the 2003 season. The Patriots got shut out, 31-0 in Buffalo, and the Chargers played a scoreless first half in their 27-14 loss to the Chiefs.

15. New England Patriots [8] — The Patriots are not as bad as they looked on Monday night, which was really bad. Four of the next five are at home, and they're a different team at home. Since Tom Brady returned from injury in 2009, New England is 38-3 at home (.927) and 25-19 away (.568). That said, you've got to appreciate the frank honesty on ESPN after the game. "Let's face it, they're not good any more," said Trent Dilfer, and Scott Van Pelt echoed that idea in the studio.

The most obvious problem is the offensive line. Kansas City consistently got pressure without blitzing. Longtime line coach Dante Scarnecchia retired in the offseason, and the Patriots traded their best offensive lineman in the final week of preseason. The team's playmakers just don't have much opportunity right now. New England has also failed to replace Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. There's no downfield receiving threat to keep defenses honest.

Then there's Tom Brady. After the loss, Steve Young called Brady "one of the four best quarterbacks in the league." That's Young's opinion, and it's not the craziest thing I've ever heard ... but it's pretty clearly inaccurate. Brady is 37. He's not playing well this year. He wasn't great last year. He can't click with his new teammates.

Peyton Manning turns every receiver he plays with into a superstar. He made Dallas Clark a household name. He turned Jacob Tamme and Austin Collie into chicken salad. His line shuffled, his running back left in free agency, his favorite receiver retired, he switched teams. None of it mattered; he's always dominant. Emmanuel Sanders entered this week as the third-leading receiver in the NFL. Sanders spent four years with Pittsburgh and never gained more than 740 yards; he's on pace for twice that in Denver. Manning still has it. Brady doesn't. Tom is probably still a good quarterback, but he's not great any more.

16. Chicago Bears [15] — It's tough to overcome so many injuries. The offensive line performed pretty well despite missing two starters. But the defense was without starting linemen Jared Allen and Jeremiah Ratliff, not to mention Pro Bowl cornerback Charles Tillman. Allen has pneumonia, and reportedly lost 15-18 pounds over the last week. This broke his streak of 113 straight games, dating back more than seven years. For Ratliff, it's the second straight game he's missed after suffering a concussion in Week 2. Linebacker Shea McClellin missed his second straight game as well; McClellin has a hand injury.

17. Houston Texans [16] — Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing. Fitzpatrick's 11-yard scramble in the second quarter gained more yardage than Alfred Blue or Arian Foster had all day. The Texans haven't played anyone good yet, but they're 3-1 and lead the AFC South. Houston defensive backs have combined for 7 forced fumbles and 4 recoveries. The secondary is having a great season.

18. Miami Dolphins [21] — Scored 38 straight points over a 45-minute span against Oakland. Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno have combined for 74 rushes and 415 yards, a 5.6 average. The numbers don't change much if you add Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas, dropping to 5.5. Miami is rushing very efficiently in 2014. Last season, Miller and Thomas combined to average 3.9 yards per carry.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers [17] — Looked great in their win over Carolina, mediocre the other three weeks. They barely beat Cleveland, lost badly to Baltimore, and dropped a home game to the lowly Bucs, who scored a season-high 27. Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are great, but the Steelers aren't getting big plays on defense.

20. Kansas City Chiefs [26] — Mike Tirico called it "an avalanche of a game." It was New England's biggest loss in over a decade. Since I wrote nearly 200 words about punting in the San Francisco summary, I'll note here that Jon Gruden and Tirico were absolutely right about Dustin Colquitt: he's one of the best punters in the NFL. Unfortunately, his NFL.com picture resembles Sloth from The Goonies.

21. New York Jets [20] — Keep losing close games. All of their losses were one-possession games, eight points or less. Three weeks from now — after games against the Broncos and at San Diego and New England — close losses will probably seem like a fond memory.

22. Buffalo Bills [22] — Benching E.J. Manuel for Kyle Orton. That's fine, but the player who should really hit the bench is Keith Rivers. I don't know if Rivers thinks he's still in college, or he's just lazy, but rather than lean down and touch Arian Foster — late in the fourth quarter, with Buffalo trailing — he allowed Foster to roll for a first down. It cost the Bills over a minute and both of their timeouts. If I were an NFL coach or GM, I'd never keep a guy like that on my team. You either cut him, or trade him to the Raiders. (If I were a GM, I would trade all my trouble players to Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland, or Washington.)

23. Cleveland Browns [23] — Two common opponents with the Panthers: Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Browns lost both games, by a combined five points. The Panthers lost by a combined 46 points. Browns rate ahead.

24. Carolina Panthers [18] — Torn apart by injuries. DeAngelo Williams has a sprained ankle, potentially leaving Carolina without its top three RBs. Thomas Davis and Charles Johnson both have hip injuries, and Greg Hardy is still out of football on the Commissioner's exempt list.

Greg Gumbel really likes Luke Kuechly. Every time Kuechly made a tackle, Gumbel announced his name, sometimes preceded by phrases like "Guess who?" and "Who else?", implying that Kuechly makes all the tackles. When anyone else on the team made a play, Gumbel focused on the offensive players. This is actually very common, standard announcer treatment for star defensive players. The absolute worst was the last few years of Ray Lewis' career, when he wasn't a very good player any more, but most of the media adored him. Trent Green deserves some credit for politely pushing back at Gumbel by pointing out Kuechly's mistakes (mostly running himself out of position) without making a big deal of it. Kuechly's not a bad player, he's just overrated. I don't want the announcers to tear anyone down; it's about balance and about honesty. People trust announcers, and guys like Gumbel routinely take advantage of that trust.

25. New York Giants [28] — Eli Manning's game mirrored that of Kirk Cousins. Eli had five TDs and one turnover; Cousins had five turnovers and one TD. Four of Manning's five TDs were passes; four of Cousins' five turnovers were passes. The Giants' offensive line totally dominated Washington's front seven.

26. Minnesota Vikings [27] — Matt Cassel is out for the season, and Teddy Bridgewater was carted off in the fourth quarter, bringing Christian Ponder onto the field. An MRI on Bridgewater's sprained left ankle came back negative, but the Vikings play this Thursday, so it's not clear whether he'll be ready.

27. St. Louis Rams [25] — Four of the top five teams in this ranking had Week 4 byes. So did the Rams and Browns. Super Bowl-caliber football returns in Week 5, when the Dolphins and Raiders have byes.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the NFL, but Lavonte David is having quite a season. Against the Steelers, David made 9 solo tackles, three of them behind the line of scrimmage, and forced a fumble. On the season, David leads the NFL with 8 tackles for loss. Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson sacked Ben Roethlisberger a combined three times in their returns to the lineup.

29. Washington [24] — Kirk Cousins committed five turnovers on Thursday night, including three what-was-he-thinking interceptions. In standard fantasy football leagues, Cousins scored 11 points, which is low but not terrible. In fantasy, his one TD pass cancels out all four INTs, and many leagues don't count lost fumbles. Making touchdowns worth four times as much as interceptions is idiotic. No player can single-handedly lose a game when the final score is 45-14, but Cousins came close.

30. Tennessee Titans [29] — Worst in the NFL in third-down percentage (26%) and passer rating (67.3).

31. Oakland Raiders [30] — We're sorry, London.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — Lost every game so far by at least 17. They don't typically have much home-field advantage, but three of the next four are in Jacksonville. That has to be some kind of consolation, right?

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:26 PM | Comments (2)

George Shuba, RIP: Making History Serenely

When Branch Rickey signed Jackie Robinson as the first black player to join a major league baseball organization, he assigned Robinson to the Montreal Royals, where his manager Clay Hopper struggled to come to terms with the only such player on his club. One of the white players on those Royals was a Slovakian immigrant's son who batted behind Robinson in the lineup.

On April 18, 1946, in his first regular season minor league game, Robinson cracked a 3-run homer. George Shuba was in the on deck circle when Robinson squared up Jersey City's Warren Sandell's letter-high fastball in the third inning. Shuba trotted to the plate waiting for Robinson to come home. He held out his hand with a large smile, inclining his body back only to accommodate Robinson's basepath. Robinson extended his own to shake it as he crossed the plate with an equal smile.

Shuba had been raised in Youngstown, Ohio, where he spent many an hour meeting and playing baseball and football with assorted black children, and swore to the end of his life — he died at 89 on 29 September, at his longtime Youngstown home — that he had no thought of that handshake or the photograph that happened to be taken having any significance other than catching a teammate congratulating a teammate.

"Our teammate hit a home run," Shuba told longtime New York Times columnist Dave Anderson on the 60th anniversary of that game. "So I shook his hand. It didn't make any difference to me that Jack was black," continued Shuba, who'd befriended Robinson in spring training that season, "I was glad to have him on our team."

The Royals went on to win the International League pennant by a whopping eighteen and a half games and Robinson won the league's batting title. When the Royals' regular season ended, Robinson found himself being pursued by adoring fans as he raced to catch a plane. "Sam Malton in the Pittsburgh Courier," Rachel Robinson would remember years later, "wrote a story saying it was the first time a mob had chased a Negro to love him instead of to kill him."

Shuba wasn't there to join the celebration; he'd been moved to the Dodgers' Southern Association club in Alabama despite 7 of his 11 Royals hits being home runs. A serviceable outfielder with a line drive swing many who saw it envied ("Shuba fields with his bat," writers around the Dodgers believed), Shuba became a Dodger in 1948 but a part-time one, up and down between the minors until 1952, used as a left-handed pinch hitter with the parent club much of the time despite the swing that earned his nickname (Shotgun) because, as an Alabama sportswriter put it, his line drives "went like buckshot."

One of them made history in Game 1 of the 1953 World Series.

The Dodgers and the Yankees opened in Yankee Stadium with the Dodgers behind 5-1 when the Brooks (as Dick Young of the New York Daily News often called them in those years) came up in the top of the sixth against New York's Johnny Sain. (Erstwhile Boston Brave, of "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain" fame.) Gil Hodges opened with a long home run and, one out later, Brooklyn third baseman Billy Cox, once fabled for his defensive virtuosity ("That ain't a third baseman," Casey Stengel huffed, "that's a fucking acrobat"), singled to left center field.

Up came Shuba, batting for Jim Hughes, a little known relief pitcher. (Hughes had been brought into the game after the Yankees jumped Dodger starter Carl Erskine for a pair of RBI triples in the first, including Billy Martin's with the bases loaded.) "Reynolds was fast and the fellers were having trouble seeing the ball and he's got a shutout," Shuba remembered to former New York Herald-Tribune writer Roger Kahn, who covered the Dodgers and visited Shuba as part of his lyrical retrospective The Boys of Summer in 1972:

I come up ... and he throws that first pitch. I never saw it. It was a strike. If it had been inside, it would have killed me. Reynolds was in the sun and I was in shadow. I never saw the ball. The next pitch he curved me. I only saw a little better. I was swinging, but I went down on one knee. Now the next pitch. I still wasn't seeing the ball good, but I took my swing. My good swing. I hit it and it went to right field and I knew it would be long but maybe the right fielder could jump and as I trotted to first base I was saying, "Hail Mary, get it up higher, Hail Mary."

Only the second time in history anybody pinch hit a home run in the World Series. But it wasn't me. There was something else guiding the bat. I couldn't see the ball and you can think what you want, but another hand was guiding my bat.

A devout Roman Catholic who said grace before every meal in the Slovak language, in tribute to his parents, Shuba never married while he played professional baseball and came to believe the game was unimportant compared to raising his family after he retired as a player. He married an Italian woman, and raised three children, one of whom became a northern Ohio dentist and married one in the bargain.

"You do something important. Write. But playing ball," Shuba told Kahn as the two shared a drink. "What the hell is that?"

"You might not understand this or believe me," Kahn replied, "but I would have given anything to have your natural swing."

"You could have," Shuba deadpanned, to Kahn's disbelief. And the former outfielder demonstrated his technique for developing that line drive swing, from pouring ten ounces of liquid lead into the barrel of a bat to hanging a rope with a clump of knots about the size of a baseball in one end from the beam of a basement ceiling.

Kahn tried a few swings with one of Shuba's lead-filled training bats. The writer struggled with the proper wrist break point. Shuba told him he was doing "all right," but Kahn demurred: "But you're a natural."

"Ah, you talk like a sportswriter," Shuba needled. Then, he got serious. "In the winters for fifteen years after loading potatoes or anything else, even when I was in the majors, I'd swing at the clump six hundred times. Every night, and after 60 I'd make an X. Ten Xs and I had my six hundred swings. Then I could go to bed. You call that natural? I swung a 44-ounce bat six hundred times a night, 4,720 times a week, 47,200 swings every winter."

Shuba's Series pinch homer yanked the Dodgers to within one of the Yankees. The Yankees went on to win the game thanks to Joe Collins hitting one out off Clem Labine with two out in the seventh, then Sain himself hitting a 2-run double before being scored by Collins on a single in the eighth. The Yankees went on to win that Series in six.

Shuba had recorded a few eye-opening batting marks in the minors but never got a genuine chance to stick as a Dodger for the most part. He'd been sent up and down as part of Rickey's parsimony ("As long as he could option me, you know, send me down but keep me Dodger property, Rickey would do that so's he could keep some other guy who's option ran out, how many guys you know ever hit .389 and never got promoted?") and by the time he became a Dodger to stay in 1952 he tore ligaments in one knee severely. By 1955, despite being only 31, his knee finally compelled him to retire.

He tried working in sporting goods but found it too "up and down" for his liking, so he moved on to the post office and stayed, eventually becoming an inspector himself. He hadn't exactly defied his immigrant parents to become a ballplayer. "My father was 45 when I was born," he said. "He never saw me play. Old country people. What did they care for baseball? He thought I should go and work in the mills like him and I didn't want to. I wanted to play."

In time, Shuba re-embraced his Dodger past. He enjoyed staying in touch with teammates, such as Carl Erskine, Johnny Podres, Clem Labine, and Chuck Connors. (Yes, the actor, who'd been a Dodger in 1949 and had one plate appearance for them that season — and grounded into a double play.)

He turned up at Dodger Stadium when the Dodgers commemorated the fiftieth anniversary of their only Brooklyn pennant. He wrote My Memories as a Brooklyn Dodger. (Well, he told it, to a Cleveland writer.) He even re-enacted the famous Robinson handshake with black children who met him, especially on one occasion before a Brooklyn Cyclones minor-league game. For a very long time, Shuba would sign autographs only if they came from or were intended for children.

He liked meeting schoolchildren and made appearances at schools frequently. Asked about his fee, his son, Michael, told one school no fee but his father liked a bowl of Wendy's chili now and then. The kids Shuba was to meet took up a collection and presented the old Dodger with $50 worth of Wendy's chili coupons.

In his last years Shuba wasn't always comfortable talking about the Robinson photograph, perhaps because he thought it had been said and done often enough and nothing more could be said of it. His son thought otherwise. "Jackie was scared none of his teammates would shake his hand in public," said Michael Shuba, to the Cleveland Plain Dealer‘s Marc Bona. "Look at the photo–can you imagine Jackie crossing the plate with no one there? That was a sign America was maturing."

Shuba died as the last man standing who'd played on both the 1946 Royals and the 1955 Dodgers. He also kept only one visible baseball memento in his home, a framed copy of the home plate handshake with Jackie Robinson. "The saints want justice," Shuba told Kahn. "The rest of us want mercy." In some ways Shuba earned and received both.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:05 AM | Comments (0)

September 29, 2014

Injuries Make Impacts Before Opening Night

As the old saying goes, you can't win the Stanley Cup in October but you can certainly lose it. Significant injuries put teams in immediate jeopardy, and difficult starts can often derail a season even before it starts. With the preseason in full swing, opening night is coming quick — and here are three situations that will wreak major havoc on their teams for October and possibly beyond.

Pavel Datsyuk

In recent years, the Detroit Red Wings have faced non-stop doubts about whether their playoff streak will finally end. The 2014-15 campaign may not be it, but they're certainly starting it behind the 8-ball. Pavel Datsyuk will miss at least a month with a separated shoulder. The Detroit depth chart survived previous generational transitions because Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg were able to take over from Steve Yzerman and company.

These days, the Nicklas Lidstrom-sized hole on the blueline is being stitched together by committee, and while there are good forwards on the squad, none have displayed the all-star talent of Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Coach Mike Babock survived previous catastrophic injury situations by playing tight systemic hockey. The Wings will have to handle the Datsyuk injury with similar discipline.

Jordan Staal

In some ways, the Jordan Staal era of Carolina looks to be a bust. He simply hasn't put up the points expected out of him. However, a closer look at advanced stats shows that the younger Staal really is one of the key drivers of possession for the Hurricanes. He takes on tough competition, plays in all situations, and has delivered in many ways outside of goals and assists (yes, he can certainly do more).

A broken bone in his leg isn't just a problem for Carolina; it's devastating. This is far different from losing a one-dimensional sniper like Alex Semin; Staal is an all-around player that will be missed in every situation. The length (several months) of his injury is a massive hole that creates many problems for Carolina. On the bright side, well, they could hope for getting Connor McDavid in the draft.

Derek Stepan

The New York Rangers made it to the Stanley Cup Final through stellar goaltending, timely goals, and tough defense. That recipe certainly got stirred up with news that Derek Stepan fractured his left fibula in a conditioning drill. New York's depth took a hit during the offseason, when veteran players left up and down the roster. That makes Stepan's injury even more perilous.

Stepan may not put up first-line numbers yet (57 points in 82 games) but he's a proven performer that, at age 24, should get better over time. The Rangers center depth is frightfully thin, with only hit-and-miss playmaker Derick Brassard and journeyman Dominic Moore offering up significant NHL experience. Alain Vignault may tinker with moving Martin St. Louis to center or giving one of the prospects a go.

Posted by Mike Chen at 1:59 PM | Comments (0)

September 26, 2014

Jeter, Overmatched, But Not Outclassed

In microcosm, Derek Jeter's final at-bat Tuesday night slammed home both the point of what he's no longer able to do and that the Yankees couldn't afford even a single loss in their final five games if they wanted to get to the postseason even through the back door. For in a moment that once might have meant a final bell miracle, Jeter was hopelessly, almost embarrassingly overmatched.

There he stood, the Yankees down 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth, with two out and Brett Gardner on first. There stood Zack Britton, the Orioles' closer, against whom Jeter took a 5-for-15 lifetime jacket to the plate. On the line was the Yankees' survival to play one more day in postseason contention and Jeter's 10-for-24 surge on the final Yankee homestand of the season.

Jeter's farewell season has been somewhat controversial for the point that questions arose all year long as to whether the 40-year-old Yankee captain belonged in the lineup as a regular anymore. His fielding skills, compromised often enough by his below-average range as it was, made him look even older often enough; his OPS is the lowest of any season in which he's played 140+ games.

Last year, Mariano Rivera's farewell tour didn't embarrass either The Mariano himself or his team because he still pitched like a far better than serviceable closer. (For merely mortal closers Rivera's 2013 would be a career year.) This year's Jeter farewell tour, not that anyone would have denied him the accolades, may yet prove to be an embarrassment for a franchise and a franchise face about whom the truest of all cliches is that neither they nor he like to lose.

For the better part of 18 seasons Jeter was liable to do something surrealistic above and beyond his customary skill set. He wasn't really a power hitter, properly defined, but he seemed to have a knack for bringing power to bear in the moments when something big was needed or at least not unwelcome. He's far from the rangiest shortstop who ever played the game, but he seemed to have a knack for the acrobatically dramatic play that clung to the memory and even obscured his shortcomings at the position.

For the rest of his life, Jeter will be judged by a few better-than-timely hits and a few shazam! fielding plays. This is the man who once squared up Byung-Hyun Kim in a 2001 World Series game with the clock striking midnight and 1 November, found a pitch he could handle the other way, and snuck it over the right field fence to win. This is the man who shot down across the diamond from, seemingly, Tremont Avenue, to bag Jeremy Giambi at the plate with a backhanded toss in Game Three of the 2001 American League division series. This is also the man who didn't just collect his 3,000th lifetime hit three years ago but squared up David Price's full-count curve ball and sent it into the left field bleachers en route a 5-for-5 day.

But for just about all of this season, Jeter's been judged by what he can't do anymore and whether or not manager Joe Girardi or someone aboard his brain trust should have acknowledged what time knows too well. The Yankees paid him generously for this final season, obviously in tribute to what he's meant to the franchise, but are they paying for their eagerness to honor the best all-around shortstop in their history with something more than mere money?

This is a Yankee team who barely hung in the races after injuries decimated them early enough and often enough. They've had very few truly baseball-related feel-good stories this year other than Dellin Betances, the setup man with the gaudy 1.42 ERA and 1.67 fielding-independent pitching average and almost fourteen strikeouts per nine innings, the kind of filthy pitching once the trademark of the man to whose closing job Betances may yet succeed once removed.

They lost already aging CC Sabathia and up-and-down Ivan Nova to the season-ending disabled list. They lost import sensation Masahiro Tanaka for over half the season to the DL. They lost Mark Teixiera and Carlos Beltran often enough to injuries and inconsistency and Martin Prado, a mid-season pickup, to a season-ending appendectomy. They watched Brian McCann (a free agency signing) struggle to horse himself and Jacoby Ellsbury (another free agency signing) struggle with streakiness before he, too, hit the ranks of the walking wounded with a hamstring issue.

And they've watched their longtime captain tell himself every day that playing the game is still the most important thing, while he faces the reality he doesn't pretend doesn't exist.

Now, on Tuesday night, Jeter stood in against Britton. He watched a swift sinkerball land in the zone on the floor for a called strike. He swung on a just-as-swift sinkerball and missed. Then, he swung on a sinker almost as swift and missed. A seventh-inning single kept a seven-game hitting streak intact, but in a moment when the Yankees most needed Jeter to summon up one more spell of his old magic, he didn't have it to summon up. Three pitches. Three strikes. Game over.

For Britton and the American League East champion Orioles, it was another win in hope of somehow, some way, obtaining the postseason home field advantage the AL West champion Angels look to have secured. For Jeter and his Yankees, it was the season's coffin lid coming that much closer to closed.

"He was better than me," Jeter deadpanned to reporters after the game, not having to say what everyone knew, that even five years ago, never mind ten or twenty, that kind of game outcome would have been unthinkable.

He has always been that much of a stand-up man. If you conquered him, he gave you your due. If he conquered you, he showed you respect. If you looked closely enough through this year's retirement hoopla, you saw a man preparing for the end down to the smallest detail, whether selling his longtime Manhattan apartment or admitting he'd like to raise a family after having ducked it during his career because he feared he couldn't while he played baseball.

Jeter's had a lot of wishes come true in his baseball. The wish he must have had above all in that regard probably won't come true. He still hates to lose. He still hates to have October off, even his final October.

Try though they might, the Yankees haven't been able to send all their signature greats off as winners of one or another kind. They could for stricken Lou Gehrig, hobbled Joe DiMaggio, and aging Yogi Berra and Jorge Posada (who got to one more postseason, albeit one with an early exit). They couldn't for worn-down Whitey Ford and Mickey Mantle; they couldn't for the rest of the Core Four — Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera — either.

"I play a game where you're supposed to control your emotions," Jeter recently told an interviewer who runs a memorabilia shop at which Jeter appeared before a small crowd. "It's a game of failure and success. And you have to be able to control it. That's why at times this year it's been difficult, because you go places and they're showing video montages and you feel like, like, you're dying or something."

He doesn't want to step away from the game or the Yankees quite that way. But even though he has too much class to say it outright, Jeter must have felt as though a key piece of him died in the batter's box Tuesday night. The piece that once performed miracles of a sort. The piece that no longer can. The piece that wasn't there when he was hammered for a three-pitch game-ending strikeout, that couldn't summon up one more gap drive or opposite field down-the-liner to send a key game to extra innings.

Still, Jeter's both too intelligent and too sensitive to let it destroy his equilibrium. When you see him in Cooperstown five years hence, you'll see that equilibrium in full force, and you're not likely to hear this man who hates to lose betray any thought that going out like less than a champion troubles him as deeply as the thoughts of his post baseball life seem now to keep him at a kind of peace.

Postscript: This almost figures. But two days after that sad game-ending, three-pitch strikeout, Derek Jeter played his final home game in a Yankee uniform. (There had been fears of anticipated rain washing the game out, fears which proved unfounded.) Fate must be terminally kind to Jeter: in the bottom of the ninth, with a man on second, Jeter jumped on a first-pitch fastball and, with his almost-patented inside-out swing, slashed it on the ground and into right field for the game-ending RBI.

It didn't mean a trip to the postseason for the otherwise vanquished Yankees and the shortstop who prizes winning above anything else, but Yankee fans---and millions watching his farewell tour in awe no matter whom they root for otherwise---probably couldn't have cared less this time. They'd gotten what they wanted, Derek Jeter winning his final home game with a hit.

"Everyone dreams of hitting a home run in the World Series or getting a game-winning hit. But I was happy with a broken bat and a run scored in the the seventh inning; I was happy with that being the end," Jeter said after the game, straining to control the emotions he admitted were just at the surface all day long. "But I'll take this one."

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:14 AM | Comments (0)

September 25, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 4

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

NY Giants @ Washington (-3½)

The Giants won for the first time, beating the previously undefeated Texans, 30-17, powered by big days from Rashad Jennings on the ground and Eli Manning through the air.

"All I've heard this year is controversy over the 'Redskins' nickname," Tom Coughlin said. "Well, I used a similar theme when I cursed out my 0-2 prior to the game when I said, 'How can you call yourself a Giant?!'

"But I have to hand it to Eli. He had a couple of bad games to start the season, but he never lost confidence and responded as one would expect a two-time Super Bowl champion. If there's one thing you can expect from Eli, it's an even keel. Win or lose, good or bad, he always has that same dumb look on his face."

Kirk Cousins threw for 427 yards and 3 touchdowns in a losing effort, as the Redskins dropped a 37-34 decision in Philadelphia.

"That's bad news for Daniel Snyder," Jay Gruden said. "He can't win for losing. We all know how he feels about the 'Redskins' name. Well, Robert Griffin goes out, Cousins takes over, and the Redskins get more offensive.

"Obviously, some things got out of hand against the Eagles. Chris Baker was ejected for fighting, but that's okay with me. I like to see that kind of passion from my players. Baker wears No. 92, which was formerly Albert Haynesworth's number. But I'd rather have a player ejected from a game than dismissed from a practice."

Cousins throws for three scores, and the 'Skins play with a chip on their shoulder, which can only be knocked off when driven squarely under the opposing quarterback's chin.

Washington wins, 27-24.

Green Bay @ Chicago (+1½)

The Packers fell to 1-2 after last week's 19-7 loss in Detroit. The Lions defense held Green Bay to 223 total yards, and scored on a safety and fumble return.

"This defeat falls squarely on the shoulders of our offense," Mike McCarthy said. "And by extension, it falls squarely on my shoulders, which gently slope downwards, much like the direction this team is heading.

"Aaron Rodgers has urged Packers fans not to worry about the team's performance. His exact word was 'relax.' I think a better word would have been 'chill,' because the weather in Green Bay is way more predictable than the Packers."

The Bears followed up their Sunday night win in Week 2 in San Francisco with a Monday night win at MetLife Stadium over the Jets. Jay Cutler and Martellus Bennett hooked up for two scores, and the Bears defense forced three turnovers.

"Our defense may bend," Marc Trestman said, "but it doesn't break. However, it does sprain, tweak, pull, concuss, tear, and twist.

"The Packers/Bears rivalry is one of the NFL's most-storied. I say 'one of,' because the most 'storied' rivalry in the NFL is the league's battle versus the truth. If Roger Goodell wants to tell a story, maybe he should start with the full story. Goodell is not the Commissioner; he's the 'O-missioner.'"

It's not quite a must-win game for the Packers, but a win would certainly feel better than the alternative: a loss and a three-game deficit to the division lead. Rodgers puts his team on his back, picking apart the Bears secondary for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns. Clay Matthews sacks Jay Cutler twice, and Green Bay wins, 27-22.

Buffalo @ Houston (-3½)

All hope of a Bills-Texans matchup of undefeated teams ended last week with losses by both teams. Buffalo lost 22-10 to San Diego, while the Texans fell 30-17 to the Giants.

"It may not a battle of two undefeated teams," Ryan Fitzpatrick said. "Nevertheless, it's still a big game for me. I was the quarterback in Buffalo for four years. I'd classify myself up there with Bills great Jim Kelly, because in four tries, I never won a Super Bowl either.

"But there's no ill will between me and the Bills. I can understand why they let me go. E.J. Manuel is a fine quarterback. He played his college ball at Florida State. To my knowledge, Manuel's never stood on a table and got stupid, but I'm pretty sure he's been under a table and got paid."

Despite their loss to the Chargers, the Bills are still tied for first atop the AFC East with the Patriots.

"I'm just glad we're staying in Buffalo," Fred Jackson said. "And I'm even more thrilled that Jon Bon Jovi has no stake whatsoever in Bills ownership. Besides, everybody knows the Goo Goo Dolls run this town."

Houston wins, 27-24.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-7½)

The Colts manhandled the hapless Jaguars 44-17, earning their first win of the year. Andrew Luck torched the Jacksonville defense for 370 yards passing and four touchdowns.

"Anytime you can get a win on the road," Luck said, "it's a big deal, even against the Jaguars. You could say we put them 'in their place.'

"Pep Hamilton really improved his play-calling. When I say he 'opened up' the play book, I mean he read past page two."

After a promising start to the season, a win on the road in Kansas City, the Titans have dropped two straight by a combined score of 59-17.

"Jake Locker has struggled lately," Ken Whisenhunt. "Maybe he's not the right guy to run my offense. But now is not the time to make a change. That doesn't mean I won't tell him, 'Jake, I think it's time we went in another direction.' Hopefully, he'll interpret that to mean it's time to move the offense forward."

The Titans keep it close, but Luck throws for two scores and runs for one on a bootleg in which he hides the ball in his beard.

Indy wins, 27-21.

Carolina @ Baltimore (-3)

Steve Smith welcomes his former team to M&T Bank Stadium, as the 2-1 Ravens host the 2-1 Panthers. Smith was a Panthers for 13 years before signing with the Ravens in the offseason.

"I'm sad to say I was a teammate to both Ray Rice and Greg Hardy," Smith said. "I'm even sadder to say they are teammates I should have punched when I had the chance.

"It appears this Rice situation isn't over. It will continue to haunt this franchise for years to come. I doubt even Edgar Allan Poe could imagine a nightmare scenario quite like this one. I can promise you this: Poe's version and the Raven's version would both be works of fiction."

The Panthers ran into a rested Steelers team intent on proving their recent offensive woes were only temporary. Pittsburgh handed Carolina a 37-19 loss, knocking them from the ranks of the unbeaten.

"Judging by the events of the last two months," Ron Rivera said, "I'm surprised anyone is unbeaten.

"But enough of my social commentary. I'm here to coach, not to babysit. And I'll be damned if Adrian Peterson should ever be allowed to babysit. Dang it! There goes my social commentary again."

Former Raven great Ray Lewis leads the home team onto the field, and performs his signature dance in the North end zone, destroying all evidence of the new paint job just put down by the grounds crew. Lewis then disposes of his sweaty clothes and gets the hell out of town.

In the stands, vendors distribute game day programs in Braille in honor of the fans' "blind support" for Rice.

On the field, Smith burns his former team for 6 catches and 89 yards and a short score.

Baltimore wins, 23-15.

Detroit @ NY Jets (+1½)

The Lions stifled the Green Bay offense in a 19-7 win at Ford Field last week. Detroit held Aaron Rodgers to 162 yards passing and only one touchdown.

"Our defense has been solid all year," Jim Calwell said. "They face good offenses and slow them down. You could call them the 'Lion Tamers.'

"Now, Ndamukong Suh is still the face of this defense, as well as it's 'sole.' In times past, Suh has made some questionable actions that often cost us dearly on the field. I think the 2014 version of the Detroit defense prides itself in Suh's image, because they often 'hurt themselves.'"

The Jets dropped to 1-2 after losing to the visiting Bears 24-16 at MetLife Stadium on Monday night. Geno Smith threw for 316 yards and 1 touchdown, but threw two costly interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

"Geno made some mistakes," Rex Ryan said, "but he displayed some flashes of brilliance. What Geno needs to understand most in that you can't force the ball. You can't be afraid of going to your check-down receiver. Just ask a hardcore Jets fan. He'll tell ya: 'Geno needs a new progression. Rex needs a new profession.'"

Calvin Johnson catches 8 passes for 105 yards and 2 scores.

Detroit wins, 23-20.

Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh (-7)

The Buccaneers are 0-3 after last Thursday's 56-14 shellacking at the hands of the Falcons in Atlanta.

"We could possibly be the worst team in the NFL," Lovie Smith said. "Heinz Stadium could very well be 'four down' territory for us.

"We got beat in all phases of the game — offense, defense, special teams, and scoreboard. On the bright side, we proved a point. That point being that a team can shame the NFL on the field as well as off."

The Steelers overwhelmed the Panthers 37-19 in Charlotte last Sunday night, stunning a home crowd expecting the Panthers to emerge 3-0.

"Up until Sunday night's game," Mike Tomlin said, "we hadn't played well on offense or defense. You could say we had some issues to clean up. Luckily, we had easy access to all the video, so it was a simple process.

"James Harrison is back as a Steeler. We've had some injuries at the linebacker position, and James knows our system well. James has always been an outspoken critic of Roger Goodell. Well, it seems James was, in fact, a visionary.

Pittsburgh wins, 27-17.

Miami @ Oakland (+4)

The Dolphins and Raiders face off in London's Wembley Stadium in the first of three NFL games there this season. The Raiders are 0-3 after last week's tough 16-9 loss at New England. Once again, the Oakland ground game struggled, with only 67 yards rushing.

"Sure," Dennis Allen said, "we're averaging well under four yards per carry. But I've said all along, before this running game can be productive, we've got to take baby steps.

"We're looking forward to our trip to London. I can't tell you how many fans in Oakland have told me I need a change of scenery."

Miami dropped to 1-2 after losing at home 34-15 to the previously winless Chiefs. Ryan Tannehill was sacked four times and was largely ineffective in the loss.

"Dolphins fans may be asking too much out of Ryan," Joe Philbin said. "He's no Dan Marino, for Christ's sake. Maybe this trip to London will be good for Ryan. He's certainly not capable of playing out of this world; maybe 'out of this country' is a more reasonable expectation."

Miami wins 27-21.

Jacksonville @ San Diego (-13½)

The Chargers won their second straight game, scoring a tough 22-10 road win at Buffalo and are now 2-1, tied with the Broncos atop the AFC West.

"I threw for 284 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Seahawks two weeks ago," Philip Rivers said. "Peyton Manning threw for 303 yards and 2 TDs against them last week. Either Aaron Rodgers is overrated, or the Seahawks pass defense is overrated.

"But the Jaguars aren't the Seahawks. The Seahawks have the 'Legion of Boom.' Jacksonville is neither the 'Legion of Boom' nor the 'Legion of Doom,' but they are 'Superfriend-ly' to opposing offenses."

The Jaguars fell into a 30-0 hole at Indianapolis last week and eventually lost 44-17 to the Colts. Chad Henne was benched at halftime, and rookie Blake Bortles took over, throwing 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

"We may have found our quarterback of the future," Gus Bradley said. "And, with a simple rearrangement of letters, our future is 'Blake,' not 'bleak.'

"Blake has a lot to learn, and it's important he start learning immediately. Quarterbacks in this league are difficult to come by for this franchise, unlike high first-round draft picks."

The Chargers sack Bortles 5 times and force 2 Jaguar turnovers. Rivers throws for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns, both to Keenan Allen.

San Diego wins, 29-10.

Atlanta @ Minnesota (+2½)

In the wake of the Adrian Peterson case, the Vikes again struggled on offense, losing 20-9 to the Saints. Starting quarterback Matt Cassel left the game in the second quarter with a foot injury and was replaced by rookie Teddy Bridgewater.

"Teddy will have to grow up fast," Mike Zimmer said. "He's got 'zip on his balls,' and that has nothing to do with his arm strength.

"It appears that Peterson's days as a Viking are over. He's apparently in denial about his child abuse charges. Now, he wants to take a polygraph test. Why? Who knows? Maybe to prove that there is something he can't beat. What's next? Does he want to start saying that he simply outscored his children?"

The Falcons exploded for 56 points in their blowout of the Buccaneers last Thursday night. Matt Ryan tossed threw touchdown passes, and Devin Hester scored on a rush and a punt return.

"The Buccaneers graded out at an A+," Ryan said. "In getting 'home-schooled.'

"We've scored 93 points in two games at home, and 10 points in Cincinnati. I detect a pattern here. And that is, when 'the roof, the roof, the roof is on,' we're pretty good."

Atlanta wins, 30-19.

Philadelphia @ San Francisco (-5½)

The Eagles record is still spotless after an emotional 37-34 win over the Redskins last week. Philly scored ten straight points to take control after Nick Foles was roughed up by Washington's Chris Baker, who was ejected along with Philadelphia's Jason Peters after an ensuing brawl.

"It was good to see Peters take up for Foles," Chip Kelly said. "I believe that was the only instance of defense we showed against the Redskins.

"Now I've got Cary Williams criticizing my conditioning methods. And that's after we just went 3-0! And I thought Foles got blind-sided. Anyway, Cary has apologized for getting bent out of shape for being out of shape."

The 49ers lost their second consecutive game, falling 23-14 to the home-standing Cardinals. A loss to the Eagles would leave San Fran 1-3 and three games behind the Cards in the loss column.

"I don't want to talk about 'W's' or 'L's,'" Jim Harbaugh said. "And I surely don't want to talk about 'N's.'

"We drafted Colin Kaepernick with the intention of molding him into a new type of quarterback. And his actions support the idea that he's a 'piece of work.' But he's no easy matchup for the Eagles. With Colin, you have to respect his throwing and running ability. It's difficult to do both. Of course, some things you can't defend."

Former Eagle and 49er Terrell Owens shows up at the opening coin toss, and after tossing the coin, flips off players from both teams, then makes off with the coin, scoring his biggest payday in years.

The desperate 49ers win on Phil Dawson's 47-yard field goal as time expires.

San Fran wins, 24-21.

New Orleans @ Dallas (+3)

The Cowboys fell behind 21-0 in St. Louis before rallying to take the win 37-34. Dallas faces a Saints team looking to break out on offense.

"If Austin Davis can throw for 324 yards and three scores," Jason Garrett said, "I can only imagine what Drew Brees will do to our secondary. I fear for our safeties.

"But our offense is a lot like Jerry Jones — they think they can score with anyone. And speaking of our upstanding owner, let's just hope no illicit photos of Jerry Jones posing with some young hotties surface. Jerry really needs to stop hamming it up. So, all I can really say is, 'Jerry, Jerry, why you muggin'?"

The Saints ground out a tough 20-9 win over the resilient Vikings last week. It was New Orleans first win of the year, and left them one game behind the Falcons and Saints in the NFC South.

"We finally got a solid game from our defense," Sean Payton said. "It appears Rob Ryan's job is safe for now. Rob's been the defensive coordinator for four different NFL teams. Unlike his defense, he makes stops in a lot of places."

New Orleans wins, 38-30.

New England @ Kansas City (+3½)

The Patriots held on to beat the inspired Raiders 16-9 last week in Foxboro. Vince Wilfork's interception of a deflected Derek Carr pass ended Oakland's scoring threat and sealed the win.

"Surprisingly," Tom Brady said, "Vince has a nose for the ball. Usually, when he smells pigskin, there's a bag of pork rinds in jeopardy. And if you're food, Vince 'will fork' you up."

The Chiefs won for the first time, wearing down the Dolphins, 34-15, in Miami. Alex Smith threw for 3 touchdowns and Knile Davis rushed for 132 yards and a score.

"This reminds me of a quote by Herman Edwards," Andy Reid commented. "Herman once said, 'I should get out of coaching and into broadcasting.' And he did. He also said something about playing to win the game. Well, we did something like that in Miami. We played to win a game. And we did."

After three unconvincing performances, the Patriots make like Rob Gronkowski's doctors and put it all together. The Pats defense frustrates Smith, and Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen rush for a score apiece. Brady finds Gronkowski late to seal the victory.

New England wins, 27-20.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:54 AM | Comments (0)

September 24, 2014

An Exhaustive Taxonomy of Non-Conference Scheduling

One of the truly great and unique parts of college football is that teams choose whom they play for a quarter or third of their schedules. Imagine populating the first 25 questions of a 100-point exam. Do you plug in 25 easy ones? Or should you mix in a challenge or two to impress the teacher?

Of course, filling out the non-conference schedule isn't that straight forward. Teams change over time and suddenly the pastry buffet you thought you had in store is a table full of snarling beasts.

There's an art to when, where, and who teams choose to play, especially those who have the influence and budgets to play any game they want.

For example, just a month ago, Michigan kicked off its now-doomed season by beating Appalachian State 52–14. It was a flashy, sharp, and unmemorable day for the Wolverines — exactly what a season-opening cupcake is supposed to be.

And yet, the previous meeting between the programs was anything but. The Mountaineers famously upset the fifth-ranked Wolverines to open the 2007 season in one of the lowest points in the sputtering juggernaut's recent history but also in non-conference scheduling at large.

Michigan found itself in a classic no-win scheduling quagmire: Beat the defending 1AA champs and your brief highlight won't make the first two blocks of SportsCenter. But lose to them in college football's biggest stadium? We're still talking about it seven years later.

With the exception of classic some traditional rivalries, non-conference games typically fall into five categories. As we've already seen in 2014, these can be excellent opportunities for the teams involved and they can be complete disasters.

The Heavyweight Game

Base Case: Oregon 46, Michigan State 27 (9/6/2014)
Worst Case: LSU 28, Wisconsin 24 (8/30/2014)

These are the matchups college football fans get excited about. To athletic directors' credit, the schedule seems to include more of these date-savers each year. Ohio State, USC, Oklahoma, Oregon, and others have embraced the stage and challenge of playing a big game in the season's nascent weeks, knowing that a loss is hardly a season's death sentence. This year, Oregon answered questions about its ability to out-quick a stout defense, while Michigan State held a lead at halftime and put together a mostly respectable road performance. We still have to see how the selection committee treats these cases, but if the Ducks mostly keep winning, it seems unlikely that this early road loss would keep an otherwise unblemished Spartan team out of the playoff.

The downside of these games is, of course, the potential blowout. Alabama's 2012 obliteration of Michigan is the best example, but lacking that kind of thrashing in this category for 2014, let's consider another negative outcome.

LSU and Wisconsin both entered the season with major skill position holes to fill. After the Badgers abandoned the run and the Tigers committed to it exclusively in this game's second half, it was difficult to feel either team was balanced enough to beat an elite team. Sometimes two good teams bring out the best in each other; other times, like this, they just make each other look bad.

The "They Traveled Where?" Game

Best Case: Missouri 49, Toledo 24 (9/6/2014)
Worst Case: Bowling Green 45, Indiana 42 (9/13/2014)

Most games between power conference teams and non-power conference teams (man, do I miss "BCS/non-BCS") fit a clear pattern. Lesser State visits Powerhouse U's giant stadium to collect both a likely defeat and a check while the hosts pocket a win and an even larger sum of home-gate revenue. Some schools, however, face a constant dilemma in picking non-league foes for this scenario: they are not usually very good or their home games are not big enough cash generators to compete with other schools for non-conference competition. As a result, they sometimes have to pay off home dates with a return trip to a campus they otherwise wouldn't glimpse.

When this goes well, storylines and a decent effort make the trip memorable. Missouri, coached and quarterbacked by Ohioans, won a nationally televised game against a live opponent in the Buckeye state. For a program on the outskirts of the SEC's most fertile recruiting grounds, it was a good outcome from an otherwise undesirable obligation.

On the other hand, Indiana's obligation to come to Bowling Green was just sad. Sure, the Hoosiers recruit the area, but Northwest Ohio is not nearly as recruit-rich as other parts of the state. And from a football perspective, Indiana is much better served traveling to power-conference peers (like Missouri!), than taking a no-win proposition against a MAC team certain to be revved up for any Big Ten blood.

The Live Dog Game

Best Case: Alabama 33, West Virginia 23 (8/30/2014)
Worst Case: Virginia Tech 35, Ohio State 21 (9/6/2014)

Sometimes playing a team that was once good is enough for schedule cred.

Let's face it: there are too many college football teams for media and fans to reevaluate every team every year, just as there are too many products on the supermarket shelves to research them all. To use a tortured buzz word, we rely on brands.

West Virginia, despite its miserable eight-loss 2013 season, has had enough recent success to be a mildly eye-raising opponent. At least, that's what Alabama thought upon scheduling the Mountaineers on a neutral field.

While the Tide were likely to win, an upset would not have been completely unthinkable, especially in the season's first week on a neutral field. With that on the line, Alabama gets more credit for beating a team we could imagine being good than a team like East Carolina that might actually be really good.

Ohio State probably felt the same way about Virginia Tech. A comfortable favorite, the Buckeyes were completely handled in Columbus by the Hokies. This wasn't a leave-it-all-out-there loss to a great opponent, as subsequent Hokie losses have shown. This was a signal about the rest of Ohio State's season.

The Cross-Country Recruiting Trip Game

Best Case: Ohio State 34, Navy 17 (8/30/2014)
Worst Case: TCU 30, Minnesota 7

Speaking of branding, teams are increasingly willing to travel uncomfortable distances for recruiting exposure. Apparently college recruits only see locally televised games and can only see teams when they come to town.

Ohio State opened its season in Baltimore against Navy. The Buckeyes certainly could have found a more lucrative option by rolling any number of schools in the Horseshoe, but they chose to don their road whites in week one to make a regional splash. The mid-Atlantic region is notoriously raidable by programs from other regions, including both Urban Meyer's Ohio State and Florida teams. It's worth noting that the 2014 best case scenario involved the Buckeyes trailing deep in the third quarter, because…

Wow, a couple of teams made some ugly road trips. UCLA went coast-to-coast to Virginia in week one, looking horribly jet-lagged in a lackluster 28–20 win. But at least that southern California team won. USC's defense was run over, through, and around by Boston College; it's unclear if the result moved the needle for any East Coast five-stars.

But the absolute worst result goes to Minnesota. Like many less-than-top-tier power conference programs, the Gophers often sort through overlooked recruits in the country's deepest talent pools. There's so much high school football talent in Texas that Minnesota can find plenty of useful pieces even after Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma skim the cream.

So with that goal in mind, the Gophers can't feel good about the Lone Star portion of their 2015 recruiting class following its loss to TCU. When asked after the game how his offense is performing, Horned Frog coach Gary Patterson jabbed, "I have no idea. You've played a Samford and now you've played a Big Ten team." Who's ready for a verbal commitment to the Twin Cities?

The Surest Thing Game

Best Case: Florida State 37, The Citadel 12 (9/6/2014) (or any other of about 50 games each of the season's first few weeks)
Worst Case: Florida 65, Eastern Michigan 0 (9/6/2014)

Early season excitement is often doused by a flood of these games. We all get it: The little guys collect a check and a glimpse of the spotlight while the big boys collect an easy win. And yet, these games are impossible to enjoy. The best possible outcome is unmemorable and uninteresting, especially after halftime. In fact, excessive scoring often extends these games past the boundaries of decency and anyone's attention span.

Really, the only non-yawns for these games are bad things. Football, as we increasingly know, is a dangerous sport that could inflict life-altering injuries on any of its participants every time they get on a field. I recognize the financial realities, but when it comes down to it, guarantee games are the offspring of the slimiest part of college sports: the university's willingness to risk its students' health to make exorbitant revenue off their labor.

Florida saw this in its week two blowout of Eastern Michigan. A teammate rolled up tight end Jake McGee's leg, and the Virginia-transfer's leg was broken in the process. To be clear, injury risk is an accepted part of football, one that players willingly take on by playing.

And yet, nobody needed to see a 65-0 game to know Florida is better than Eastern Michigan. If a coach promises a player's family that he will take care of their son, how can he justify playing a game that is nothing more than a fundraiser?

Yeah, Michigan losing to Appalachian State was bad. But Jake McGee having to deal with a broken leg so Florida's books balance is far worse.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 5:24 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 28

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski won his second straight pole and was in contention at Loudon despite hitting the wall. He eventually finished seventh as teammate Joey Logano won.

"When I hit the wall," Keselowski said, "I thought the worst. But the Chase is long and grueling, and won't be won in a day. You've got to keep your eyes on the prize. For me personally, I'm able to see the 'Lite' at the end of the tunnel."

2.Joey Logano — Logano led 78 laps and pulled away on the green-white-checkered restart to take the win at New Hampshire. With the victory, Logano joins Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski as the only drivers to have clinched berths in the next round.

"It's great to win at my home track," Logano said. "I have lots of supporters at home, but none more fanatical than my father."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished ninth in the Sylvania 300, posting his 17th top-10 finish of the year. He is sixth in the points standings, 20 out of first.

"There were a whopping 15 cautions on Sunday," Earnhardt said. "That really slowed the race down, and it truly made it feel like a 'Sunday drive.'"

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished fifth at New Hampshire, posting his ninth top-five of the year. He is fourth in the points standings, 17 behind Brad Keselowski.

"Some say the Jimmie Johnson aura of invincibility is fading," Johnson said. "That could change in a matter of seconds with a win at Dover, where I've won several times. A win there, and all my critics will realize I am a threat to win the Cup. So I'm replacing the aura of invincibility with the aura of convincibility."

5.Kevin Harvick — Harvick led a race-high 104 laps and finished third in the Sylvania 300 at Loudon. He is now third in the Sprint Cup points standings, seven out of first.

"Traditionally," Harvick said, "the Loudon winner is awarded a lobster. That's what Joey Logano got. It may be the first time the race trophy was older than the race winner."

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished a troubling 26th in Sunday's caution-filled race at Loudon. He is seventh in the points standings, 27 behind Brad Keselowski.

"The pressure will be on at Dover," Gordon said. "I need a solid finish in order to advance. So, the only clinching scenarios I want to hear are the ones that don't involve my rear end."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 21st at Loudon and is now eighth in the points standings, 40 out of first.

"Fifteen is simply way too many cautions," Kenseth said. "'Proceed with caution' is a warning for drivers, not instructions for race officials."

8. Kyle Busch — Kyle Busch finished eighth at Loudon and has posted top 10's in both Chase races. He is fifth in the points standings, and barring a disaster, should advance to the Challenger round.

"I like my chances," Busch said. "For me, a 'disaster of the bar' would be my lawyer not being able to get me a reduced sentence for going 128 miles per hour in a 45 MPH zone."

9. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished 17th in the Sylvania 300, the top finisher among Roush Fenway Racing cars.

"I guess all we can do is put that finish behind us," Edwards said, "and move on. And speaking of moving on, I'll be at Joe Gibbs Racing next year. Nobody's is more excited about it than me. In fact, nobody's excited about it but me."

10. Kyle Larson — Larson finished second in the Sylvania 300 and now has a third and a second in the last two races.

"I'm 21-years-old," Larson said, "but I'm certainly not the baby of the sport. That title belongs to Cole Custer, who won the Truck series race at New Hampshire at the age of 16 years, 7 months, and 28 days. I've heard of the Gillette Young Guns; it's too bad Cole's not shaving. He could be a Gillette Young'un."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:09 AM | Comments (0)

September 23, 2014

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Pro Football Hall of Fame

Last week, the NFL announced this year's nominees to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The major change this year is that "contributors" like owners, general managers, and league officials are no longer competing with players for the same spots. Instead, two finalists will be selected by the Hall of Fame's Contributor Selection Committee and treated the same way as this year's Senior candidate (former Vikings center Mick Tingelhoff, an excellent choice), with an up-or-down vote as a Finalist. I wonder if two contributors isn't too many, and I hope this doesn't become an excuse to induct all the team owners, but I'm glad that people like Steve Sabol and George Young aren't competing with players any more.

There are 113 "modern" nominees this year, and I've broken them into four groups. The first are players and coaches whom I fully support and would vote for enthusiastically. The second are individuals I wouldn't select in the early rounds of balloting, but would probably go thumbs-up as Finalists, and I wouldn't have a problem with them getting in. The third group is comprised of those for whom I probably wouldn't vote, but I see the appeal of their candidacy. The fourth are people who have no business in the Hall of Fame without buying a ticket.

These are opinions, not predictions.

Group 1: Strong Candidates

Tiki Barber, Terrell Davis, Daryl Johnston, Herschel Walker, Tim Brown, Isaac Bruce, Henry Ellard, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Joe Jacoby, Kevin Mawae, Will Shields, Bryant Young, Kevin Greene, Sam Mills, Junior Seau, Zach Thomas, Steve Atwater, LeRoy Butler, Rodney Harrison, Albert Lewis, Morten Andersen, Don Coryell, Tony Dungy, Clark Shaughnessy

There are actually only about 20 modern candidates I support enthusiastically, but I deliberately made this a group of 25, the number of candidates who will advance to the semi-finalist stage. When I wrote about this last year, Young, Mills, Lewis, and Dungy were all borderline candidates.

Junior Seau and Marvin Harrison, at least, should be locks. If they aren't elected in 2015, the entire selection committee should be replaced. Zach Thomas wasn't even a Semi-Finalist last year, which is disgraceful. If you don't think Zach Thomas was a Hall of Famer, you don't understand this sport and you have no business expressing opinions on the Hall of Fame.

Group 2: Borderline Candidates

Randall Cunningham, Kurt Warner, Roger Craig, Priest Holmes, Edgerrin James, Ricky Watters, Jimmy Smith, Mark Bavaro, Mike Kenn, Tom Nalen, Orlando Pace, Cornelius Bennett, Clay Matthews, Karl Mecklenburg, John Lynch, Darren Woodson, Brian Mitchell, Mike Holmgren, Richie Petitbon, Marty Schottenheimer

I listed 25 strong candidates and 20 borderline: 45 of the 113 nominees. That includes 2 QB, 7 RB, 1 FB, 6 WR, 1 TE, 6 OL, 1 DL, 7 LB, 6 DB, 2 special teamers, and 6 coaches, though really Petitbon should be viewed as a combined player (4-time Pro Bowl DB) and coach (3 Super Bowls as defensive coordinator). I know casual fans tend to support the offensive glory positions, but there's a lot more to the game. Those positions make up 27% of the players on the field, and 38% of my top nominees, 44% if you exclude coaches. I don't think I'm being unfair to those positions.

Group 3: Weak Candidates

Shaun Alexander, Ottis Anderson, Gary Clark, Sterling Sharpe, Rod Smith, Willie Anderson, Tony Boselli, Lomas Brown, Jim Covert, Bill Fralic, Jay Hilgenberg, Chris Hinton, Kent Hull, Jim Lachey, Nate Newton, Steve Wisniewski, Al Baker, Charles Haley, Dexter Manley, Charles Mann, Steve McMichael, Fred Smerlas, Ted Washington, Eric Allen, Joey Browner, Ty Law, Tim McDonald, Frank Minnifield, Everson Walls, Gary Anderson, Nick Lowery, Steve Tasker, Bill Cowher, Tom Flores, Chuck Knox, Dan Reeves

Thirty-six people in this group. I don't think any of them should get in, but it's possible my mind could change in the future.

Group 4: It's An Honor Just to Be Nominated

Rich Gannon, Phil Simms, Jerome Bettis, Stephen Davis, Eddie George, Jamal Lewis, Jeff Bostic, Jon Jansen, Mark May, Chris Samuels, Mark Schlereth, Tra Thomas, Jerome Brown, Carl Hairston, Jevon Kearse, Greg Townsend, Tedy Bruschi, Ken Harvey, Willie McGinest, Matt Millen, Chris Spielman, Darryl Talley, Thomas Everett, Terry McDaniel, Shawn Springs, Troy Vincent, Jason Elam, Sean Landeta, Jimmy Johnson, Buddy Parker, Lou Saban, Dick Vermeil

Everyone in this group was a good player, or a good coach. Most of them were very good. But none approach a Hall of Fame standard, and in each case, there are eligible players at the position who are more deserving.

The Philadelphia/Washington Brawl

You probably know that Chris Baker and Jason Peters were disqualified from Sunday's game for their parts in a fourth-quarter brawl, but let's begin at the beginning, as they say. Former Eagle DeSean Jackson was questionable all week, a game-time decision because of his injured left shoulder. On the first series of the game, Jackson made a catch, and while he was lying on the ground, Philadelphia DB Malcolm Jenkins dove on Jackson's left shoulder. Jackson got up and pushed him, then Nate Allen pushed Jackson and drew a 15-yard penalty. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman were outraged that Allen, not Jackson, got flagged. Even the excellent Mike Pereira missed that Jenkins — not Jackson — initiated the conflict. Openly targeting an injury like that is way over the line.

Late in the game, it appeared that Bashaud Breeland had intercepted a Nick Foles pass (the INT was overturned on replay). Durng an interception return, it's open season on the quarterback — defenders go after him with the excuse that they're blocking for a teammate. But Baker ran into Foles, full speed, from behind, after Breeland was down. It was a nasty hit and a dirty play. Peters saw what happened and sprinted at Baker, attacking him in retaliation (though at least Baker was looking, and Peters picked on someone his own size). Baker grabbed Peters by the facemask, and we got the biggest fight of the year in the NFL. Both Baker and Peters were thrown out of the game.

One of the reasons many fans dislike Joe Buck is because it is occasionally obvious which team he prefers. Philadelphia has been on the other side of this in the past, but on Sunday, Buck complained, "Jason Peters, who was sticking up for Nick Foles, gets ejected because of the hit by Chris Baker." He actually said that, that Peters got disqualified because of the hit by Baker. Peters didn't get tossed because of what Baker did, he got thrown out for attacking an opponent and instigating a benches-clearing brawl. Baker got thrown out because of the hit by Chris Baker. Expect fines for both players and smugness from Buck.

Really, you should always expect smugness from Buck.

Okay, time for power rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Cincinnati Bengals [3] — The Ravens are an .800 home team during the Joe Flacco era. The Bengals beat them in Baltimore. The Falcons just publicly humiliated the Buccaneers. Cincinnati routed them in Week 2. The Titans are a professional football team. Cincinnati routed them, too. The Bengals' opponents are 5-1 against other teams; Cincinnati has three quality wins and leads the league in point differential (+47). The defense is excellent, and the offense, with weapons like Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green, is dangerous, too.

2. Denver Broncos [1] — This would have been a great Super Bowl. No one but Seahawk fans enjoyed last February's beginning-to-end blowout, but Sunday's game would have been a classic. This time, the Broncos overcame an early disaster (Montee Ball's lost fumble on their first play from scrimmage) and took the Seahawks to overtime in Seattle. Down by eight with under a minute left, the Broncos went 80 yards in :41 with no timeouts, and got the game-tying two-point conversion, for another great two-minute drill on Peyton Manning's résumé. Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison believe in moral victories, and I do, too. A regulation tie in Seattle is like a 7-point win on a neutral field, and the Broncos proved they can play with the Seahawks.

3. Seattle Seahawks [2] — Four unrelated Seahawk items...

1) Russell Wilson leads the NFL in passer rating (108.9).

2) CBS showed a graphic that Wilson is 6-0 (now 7-0) vs. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers, with a bajillion touchdowns and no interceptions. But Brady, Brees, Manning, and Rodgers don't play defense. In those seven games, the other QBs combined for 264 yards per game, 8 TDs, 6 INTs, 16 sacks, and a lost fumble. With all due respect to Wilson, who is a great quarterback and who played well in those matchups (213 ypg, 125.8 rating), the Seahawks won those games because they held QBs who average a 101.8 passer rating to 80.6, which is about league average. Over the last 2½ seasons, this is the best defense in the NFL. Wilson didn't beat those quarterbacks, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor did.

3) A Seahawk fumble recovery in the second quarter was overturned on replay. I really wish the NFL would do more to align its rules with common sense. Demaryius Thomas caught the ball. It looked like a catch live, it looked like one on replay, and it looked like it in slow motion. Apparently officials interpreted the rule correctly, but it's a stupid rule. A catch should be a catch.

4) This can make the difference in a close game ... brilliant special teams performances by punter Jon Ryan and gunner Ricardo Lockette. Ryan punted six times, five of them down inside the 20, no touchbacks, and a net average of 47.7.

4. San Diego Chargers [6] — Already missing Ryan Mathews (knee), the Chargers also lost Danny Woodhead, who will need season-ending surgery on his ankle. Replacement Donald Brown carried 31 times for just 62 yards, which seemed like it might be some kind of record. It's not. Edgerrin James holds the mark for most rushes with an average of 2.0 or less (36 attempts for 55 yards, in the famous MNF "Bears are who we thought they were" game). Matt Asiata, who is filling in for the suspended Adrian Peterson, actually had 30 carries for 51 yards in a game last December.

The Chargers lost their opener, on the road in Arizona, by one point. Since then, they've beaten the Seahawks and cruised over the 2-0 Bills. Three of their next four games are in San Diego, against the Jaguars, Jets, Raiders (in Oakland), and Chiefs, who are a combined 2-10. It's easy to see the Chargers at 6-1 a month from now.

5. Atlanta Falcons [10] — That was the best game I've seen from Devin Hester in seven or eight years. He scored on a vintage punt return, but I was even more impressed by his hustle and heads-up — in the first quarter, when the game was still close — to force and recover a fumble. His end-around touchdown was a thing of beauty, perfectly blocked, and flawlessly run by Hester.

6. Arizona Cardinals [13] — One of three undefeated teams, with the Bengals and Eagles. I still don't believe in the offense with Drew Stanton, but he played well against the 49ers, and the defense is excellent. I anticipated a major drop-off without Darnell Dockett, Karlos Dansby, and Daryl Washington, but it hasn't happened.

7. Philadelphia Eagles [8] — 7:06 time of possession in the first half, and they didn't run an offensive play until 13 minutes into the game, 2:01 of the first quarter. Pro Bowl center Jason Kelce left late in the game with an abdominal injury and Peters (who also got checked for injury, and was not playing well on Sunday) got disqualified, so Philly finished this game with only one of its opening-day offensive linemen, right guard Todd Herremans. The Eagles go forward without Lane Johnson (suspended the first four games), Allen Barbre (injured reserve), Evan Mathis (IR-designated for return), and Kelce (hernia). It's tough to run an efficient offense without any of your starting blockers, and I'm nervous about ranking them so high.

8. New England Patriots [5] — Their struggles the first two weeks could be written off as road games or early-season weirdness. But it's been three weeks, and the Pats have five offensive touchdowns. The defenses they've faced — Miami, Minnesota, and Oakland — aren't exactly the '85 Bears. New England averages 3.5 yards per rush and 5.5 per pass. Those are very poor numbers, and it is now very reasonable to worry about this offense.

9. New Orleans Saints [11] — Played their first game in New Orleans and cured their ills, gaining 27 first downs to Minnesota's 13. The Saints lead the NFL in third down percentage, 62%. Center Jonathan Goodwin has a high ankle sprain and will likely miss several weeks.

10. San Francisco 49ers [4] — Scored touchdowns on their first two drives, then nothing the rest of the game. Here are San Francisco's scores by quarter in 2014:

The Niners lead the NFL in penalties, 36 for 303 yards. The Patriots (30 for 322) and Rams (26 for 305) actually have even more penalty yardage. Rather than blaming the refs, try third down defense. The 49ers are worst in the NFL, allowing opponents a 52% conversion rate, which doesn't include 2-for-2 on fourth downs.

11. Detroit Lions [14] — Two place-kickers were drafted this year, and now both have been cut. Nate Freese went 3/7 on field goals, and the Lions replaced him on Monday with former Eagle Alex Henery, who went 23/28 last season. The Eagles have moved on with undrafted rookie Cody Parkey, who is 8/9 with a long of 51 and a last-second game-winner in Week 2.

Linebacker Stephen Tulloch, who injured his ACL celebrating a sack, will be placed on injured reserve.

12. Indianapolis Colts [15] — In the first half, they out-gained the Jaguars 330-55 and 18 first downs to 2, and went into halftime with a 30-0 lead. Chad Henne had almost as many sacks (3) as completions (4).

13. Green Bay Packers [7] — They rank 27th in scoring and 28th in offensive yardage. Green Bay's opponents have rushed for twice as much yardage (468) as the Packers (236). There's a critical game at Chicago in Week 4, and this team needs to get on track in a hurry.

14. Baltimore Ravens [17] — Least-penalized teams in the NFL so far: Ravens and Saints (12 for 96 yards) and Raiders (15 for 93 yards).

15. Chicago Bears [20] — Outrushed by 2-to-1 and out-gained by 160 yards, but they won on turnovers and red zone play. Chicago ranks last in the NFL in rushing. Even more surprising: Brandon Marshall is fourth on the team in receiving yards, behind Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte. Marshall and Bennett are the only Bears with receiving TDs this season — 4 each.

16. Houston Texans [9] — Since 2011, the Texans are 25-12 (.676) when Arian Foster plays, and 1-13 (.071) when he doesn't. Rodney Harrison said on NBC, "The Texans are garbage," but they're 2-1 with both wins by double-digits. Houston leads the NFL in third down defense, allowing just a 27% conversion rate.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers [22] — Both teams left Sunday night's game banged up. Jarvis Jones needs wrist surgery and will probably miss about two months. Ike Taylor has a broken forearm and might be done for the season, while rookie Ryan Shazier has a sprained MCL. The latter injury is not serious, but this was a costly victory. The Steelers have apparently talked James Harrison out of retirement; he is expected to rejoin the team this week.

18. Carolina Panthers [12] — It sounds like both Jonathan Stewart (sprained knee) and Mike Tolbert (hairline fracture in his leg) are going to miss a lot of time. The Panthers have quickly gone from too many RBs to too few. They should trade for Trent Richardson!

In the third quarter of Sunday night's game, Al Michaels compared Luke Kuechly to Michael Jordan. On the next play, Kuechly got out of position and the Panthers gave up an 80-yard run. Kuechly is the most overrated defensive player in the NFL.

19. Dallas Cowboys [25] — You've heard all about their big comeback. Their first three drives yielded two turnovers and a three-and-out. They followed that with five consecutive scoring drives, good for 27 points, then an interception return for a touchdown and a 34-24 lead. DeMarco Murray has rushed for at least 100 yards in every game this season.

20. New York Jets [18] — Geno Smith won't throw the ball away. Twice on Monday night, he took losses when he didn't need to. Muhammad Wilkerson left the game with an injury, and his status is not clear yet. Defense is already a concern for the Jets, and that will become even more true if they lose Wilkerson. Over the next four weeks, the Jets face the Lions, Chargers, Broncos, and Patriots, prompting Trent Dilfer to remark, "They play a bunch of stud quarterbacks here in the next few weeks. They can't cover. So they're gonna have to keep [blitzing]." Watch out.

21. Miami Dolphins [16] — They play the Raiders in London next week. Since the London series began, teams are 6-12 the week before. The teams in question had a 111-149-2 record (.427), compared to .333 the week before travel. I think the stress of preparing for the trans-Atlantic trip interferes with preparation.

22. Buffalo Bills [19] — Committed 11 penalties for 110 yards. They have three tough games coming up that could go either way: Texans and Lions on the road, Patriots at home. The Texans are 3-point favorites in Week 4. Buffalo's special teams ace, Marcus Easley, is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL.

23. Cleveland Browns [24] — Four fourth-quarter possessions yielded two missed field goals and two three-and-outs. The trick play with Johnny Manziel was called back by penalty, but it was really cool. It's a shame all the best trick plays seem to get cancelled by penalty.

24. Washington [23] — Back-to-back 300-yard first halves, and the defense played better than the 37-34 final score implies. But they have the worst special teams in the league. Chris Polk scored a 102-yard kickoff return TD on Sunday, and Kai Forbath missed a 33-yard field goal (in a game they lost by 3). They've already had both a punt and an extra point blocked, and new punter Tress Way is having trouble pinning opponents. This was a problem last year, too. On a separate bad note, DeAngelo Hall tore his Achilles and is out for the season.

25. St. Louis Rams [21] — Blew a 21-0 lead and lost a game in which they gained 448 yards, 26 first downs, and a defensive TD. They lost three turnovers and committed 8 penalties for 119 yards and 4 Dallas first downs.

26. Kansas City Chiefs [29] — Two years ago, they went 2-14, almost exclusively because of a dismal -24 turnover margin. So far this year, they're once again league-worst in that statistic, -5. Knile Davis fumbled twice last weekend, losing one.

27. Minnesota Vikings [26] — Matt Cassel suffered multiple fractures in his left foot, setting up rookie Teddy Bridgewater as the starting QB. Jacksonville's Blake Bortles will also make his first start in Week 4.

Buried in the middle of Chris Mortensen's report on Adrian Peterson is significant news: "The Vikings do not foresee Peterson in their future." Mort also suggests that Peterson will not play again this season, but this story implies that the Vikings will cut him. Learn fast, Jerick McKinnon.

28. New York Giants [31] — By far their best game of the season, in all phases. They gained 419 yards, compared to an average of 269 the first two weeks. They forced 3 turnovers (none the first two games), and even blocked a punt to set up their final touchdown.

29. Tennessee Titans [28] — R.I.P. Rob Bironas. At the end of the season, I'll announce my 2005-14 NFL All-Decade Team. Right now, I have Bironas penciled in as the most underrated kicker of the decade.

30. Oakland Raiders [30] — Yahoo's Andy Behrens points out that everyone who scored in their game this weekend has a last name ending in -kowski: Sebastian Janikowski, Stephen Gostkowski, and Rob Gronkowski. You go, Poland.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [27] — Halfway through the second quarter, they already trailed 35-0, prompting Phil Simms to remark, "Well, this is an embarrassing night for the Tampa Bay Bucs." The Falcons had 255 yards, 16 first downs, and 35 points before Tampa Bay gained a first down. In the first half, the Bucs had more turnovers than first downs and they were outgained 300-63.

Thursday night was my first look this season at Alterraun Verner, a Pro Bowl CB whom the Bucs signed in free agency. He was terrible. I mean, the whole team was terrible, so his performance didn't stand out, but you would never guess this guy was a Pro Bowler. It wasn't just Julio Jones making Verner look bad. He was beaten several times by Atlanta's sixth-string wide receiver, special teamer Eric Weems.

Gerald McCoy, Michael Johnson, and Doug Martin are all expected back in Week 4.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — We're used to the offense sucking, but the defense might be even worse. Jacksonville ranks a distant last in points allowed (119) and point differential (-75). Every opponent has scored at least 34, and they're averaging a sickening 466 yards per game. This year's Jags are actually off to a worse start than last year's.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:44 PM | Comments (0)

September 22, 2014

West's Suspension vs. Real Accountability

In June 1983, Joe Torre was the Atlanta Braves' manager, Joe West was a veteran of six seasons' umpiring in the National League, and Bob Watson — who has held the baseball government post Torre now holds — was a Brave who'd been fined $100 for arguing over a game-ending third strike when the game was over. And all Torre wanted was to question West as to whether Watson deserved such a hit after a game.

Torre probably figured the better part of valor was to talk to West quietly, away from the crowd or the Braves' clubhouse, so he strode to the walkway that led to the umpires' dressing room in old Fulton County Stadium. So far as West was concerned, apparently, Torre did nothing but violate West and his fellow umps' space, actual or presumed. And West gave Torre a shove.

West didn't deny the shove. Chub Feeney, then the president of the National League, suspended West three days and fined him $500. (Anyone who says now that there's no precedent for taking umpire discipline public should be proclaimed full of it.) But the ump also defended himself by telling reporters he didn't want Torre inciting the crowd, which would not be an unreasonable concern but for the game being over and the crowd dispersing.

The late Richie Phillips, then the head of the old Major League Umpires Association, defended his man this way: "[I don't] take the position that umpires can't make mistakes, or that they cannot even make outrageous mistakes. I take the position that umpires are right, right or wrong." A position which led in due course to the destruction of the MLUA and the creation of today's World Umpires Association, incidentally.

A little over 30 years later, Torre is a Hall of Famer (as a manager) and — as baseball government's executive vice president of baseball operations, which includes oversight on discipline and umpiring — Joe West's boss. And Torre has handed West a single-game suspension for grabbing the jersey of Philadelphia reliever Jonathan Papelbon, and shoving him to one side, after West ejected Papelbon over a lewd gesture last week, following a booing over a bad inning's work, and Papelbon questioned the ejection.

West served the suspension last Wednesday. Rest assured there will be those thinking that, compared to Papelbon, West got off lightly, even if the suspension isn't insignificant as umpire discipline goes. Rest further assured there will be those thinking, shoving a manager gets you three, shoving a player gets you one if that much, and isn't there something not quite in whack going on?

Ponder the fury, not to mention the flogging, that would emanate if Papelbon — who inadvertently brushed the bill of West's cap when he stormed out of the Phillies dugout to question the ejection — hadn't inadvertently brushed the cap but given West a shove or worse at the moment West laid hands on him.

During 1990, the Phillies and the Mets brawled at Shea Stadium over a few brushbacks and knockdowns after Dwight Gooden, who'd thrown one or two of them himself, charged the mound after ducking one. West's umpiring crew was handling the game. And West's ideas of playing peacemaker included intercepting Phillies pitcher Dennis Cook (an eventual Met, incidentally) and throwing Cook to the ground.

"West walked up behind me, picked me up, then threw me down," Cook told reporters at the time. "That's fine and dandy, him throwing me down. But I ought to be able to do the opposite — bust him in the chops. If I do that, I'm out of baseball."

Think about that. Overall, the umpires are far enough from the confrontation mindsets encouraged if not fostered in the Richie Phillips/MLUA era. A very select few seem to continue thriving on stirring up assorted cauldrons, not to mention players and managers. But West's single-game icing over Papelbon merely secures further the maxim that an ump can have a free shot at a player and not see even a milliliter worth of what a player might see for taking the same shot.

West may have survived Phillips's suicidal mass resignation strategy in 1999, launched after, among other things, baseball government demanded explicit umpire accountability and adherence to strike zone and other play call rules. But he acts too often as though he's still a Phillips client. "I equate umpires with federal judges," Phillips said during that testy 1999, after the players' union surveyed players, managers, and coaches on umpire performance. "And I don't believe they should always be subject to the voter, just like federal judges are not subject to the voter."

Phillips — whose ire was amplified further when baseball government asked teams to chart pitches and rate umpires' strike zones, calling what amounted to an employer demanding employee accountability "Big Brother watching over us" — must have forgotten that federal judges can be impeached. Sandy Alderson, now the Mets' general manager but then a baseball government official, said as much in response, adding, "I got worried when I found out that players were more concerned with who was umpiring the next day than they were about who was pitching."

West still behaves only too often as though he's unimpeachable. God help us he has the presidency of the World Umpires Association to fortify him. Torre's single-game suspension amounts to nothing more than "if you do that again I'm going to be very, very angry at you!" and no teeth included.

West simply behaved in the manner in which he found and proclaimed Papelbon deficient, anything but a professional. Torre, who should have remembered when he was himself a victim of West's solipsism, dropped a grand opportunity to remind him and his fellows of that. If the umpires are supposed to be above the field's passions should they not be held to standards just a little bit higher?

Mike Winters was, seven years ago. During a September 2007 game between San Diego and Colorado, combustible Padres outfielder Milton Bradley, no stranger to arguments with umpires, tossed his bat aside furiously. His next at bat, plate ump Brian Runge asked Bradley if the bat toss was meant for him over the earlier pitch call. Bradley said no. Runge hinted to Bradley that first base ump Winters said otherwise. Bradley singled, took a lead off first, and fumed at Winters, before manager Bud Black came out and bumped Bradley to one side — causing Bradley to fall hard and tear an ACL.

Winters was suspended for the rest of the season and the postseason. It turned out that Padres first base coach Bobby Meacham verified that Winters had taunted and name-called Bradley during their argument. Bradley's loss probably helped the Padres lose that year's one-game playoff for the National League wild card.

There are umpires who would have handled Papelbon's ridiculous protest and Bradley's now-ancient protest, among others, with far more professionalism. The reasons you don't know their names are because they're not necessarily looking for the spotlights West is charged so often with craving. And they don't necessarily think of themselves the way their late longtime union chief once thought of them, fatally.

Now, back to your regularly-scheduled pennant races.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 6:51 PM | Comments (0)

September 18, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 3

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-6½)

The Falcons host the Bucs on Thursday night on CBS/NFL Network, eager to rebound from last week's 24-10 loss in Cincinnati.

"That's right," Matt Ryan said. "It's prime time in Atlanta. And I guess that's just the first of millions of Deion Sanders references to come. And those will all come from Deion.

"There hasn't been a shutdown corner in Atlanta since Deion left. There are a lot of corners in Atlanta, but the cops can't make any of them 'shut down.'"

Tampa Bay, who many predicted as an NFC South sleeper, is 0-2 after last week's 19-17 loss to the Rams.

"We've lost consecutive games to teams quarterbacked by Derek Anderson and Austin Davis," Lovie Smith said. "Maybe fighting fire with fire is not the way to go, because we've been starting our own second string quarterback all along."

"Traditionally, Tampa has been known for the 'Tampa 2' defense. We play a variation of that called the 'Tampa X.' In the Tampa X defense, spacing is crucial. Without proper spacing, you could wind up with the 'Tampax' defense."

Matt Ryan throws for 265 yards and 2 scores, and the Falcons win, 27-23.

San Diego @ Buffalo (+2)

The Bills are 2-0 and alone atop the AFC East after last week's decisive 29-10 win over the Dolphins. Clemson alums C.J. Spiller, who returned a kickoff for a touchdown, and Sammy Watkins (8 catches, 117 yards, 1 touchdown) led the way.

"We love our school," Spiller said, "and we hate our state rivals at South Carolina. They're always trying to one-up us. Did you know that in addition to game balls, they give 'Gamecocks?'

"But I digress. What has a 'USC' player ever done to disgrace the good people of Buffalo?

"Maybe it's premature, but we're thinking Super Bowl. That's bad news for the Chargers, but good news for the NFC."

The Chargers whipped the visiting Seahawks, 30-21, behind 3 touchdown passes from Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates.

"I refuse to let a player dictate what side of the field I can throw to," Rivers said. "Take a look at the time of possession stats from the Seattle game — that was 'one-sided.'

"Richard Sherman was so upset, he refused to speak with the media. He loves being on television, so it's quite surprising that Sherman put himself on 'mute.'

"But it's a long flight to Buffalo. And the Bills are looking pretty sharp. So the odds may be stacked against us, but we feel pretty good about beating the defending Super Bowl champions. That was a real confidence booster. 'Confidence booster' is also what former Charger and Bill Shawne Merriman called his steroids. He was always a really boastful guy, so it would always surprise me when he would say, 'I really need a confidence boost' three or four times a day."

This is the biggest game in Buffalo since last week's game. Fans can't wait to see the Bills face off against one of the AFC's elite teams. Plus, if Fred Jackson sees his shadow, that means there's only three more weeks until hockey season.

Jackson and Spiller terrorize the Charges out of the backfield, combining for 11 catches and 147 yards.

Buffalo wins, 21-18.

Dallas @ St. Louis (+2)

Dallas bounced back from their Week 1 loss with a 26-10 win over the Titans in Tennessee. DeMarco Murray carried the load, rushing for 167 yards and a score.

"A successful rushing attack is so important," Jason Garrett said. "Not only does it move the chains, but it keeps our defense off the field. But I've yet to discover a rushing attack that's good enough to keep our owner off the field.

"I'm not sure Jerry Jones wants Adrian Peterson on his team anymore. I think we all feel that the law should throw the book at Peterson, and that book should be written by Dr. Benjamin Spock."

The Rams picked up their first win of the year, knocking off the Buccaneers in Tampa, 19-17.

"Playing the Cowboys is always a big game," Jeff Fisher said. "And it's even bigger because of the Michael Sam issue, because he's played for both teams.

"Because we're so stacked on defense, we weren't able to keep Sam. I think our defense is one of the NFL's best, and certainly one of the youngest. How young, you may ask? Well, they're so young, Jerry Jones wants to takes pictures with them."

This is a game that will be won in the trenches. Dallas' offensive line is hitting on all cylinders, and the Rams have one of the NFL's best front seven. Something's got to give.

St. Louis wins, 22-20.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-7)

Despite losing Robert Griffin and DeSean Jackson early to injuries, the Redskins pounded the Jaguars 41-10. Kirk Cousins took over at quarterback and threw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"Griffin dislocated his ankle," Jay Gruden said, "so, for the time being, this is Cousins' team. He's being anointed the 'prodigal sub.' RG3's injury is certainly unfortunate, but I echo the sentiments of Daniel Snyder, who's quite unsympathetic to the plight of the Redskin.'

"Now, Cousins' doesn't have the same skill set as RG3. While Kirk doesn't run the read option, he does, in fact, run the better option."

The Eagles are 2-0 after last week's big win in Indianapolis. Free agent acquisition Darren Sproles was the difference, with 7 receptions for 152 yards and added a touchdown run.

"Sproles is a real difference-maker," Chip Kelly said. "He really tips the scales in our direction in a huge way. That's why we call him 'The Big Tipper.'

"DeSean Jackson is making his return to Philadelphia.We won't let DeSean beat us. You certainly don't want to give up the big play to him, and the best way to prevent that is to gang tackle him."

Philadelphia wins, 27-24.

Houston @ NY Giants (+3)

The 0-2 Giants are in search of their first win of the season. In their two losses, the G-Men have been outscored 60-28.

"We've got holes everywhere," Tom Coughlin said, "and as you would expect, most have been self-inflicted. And speaking of 'misfires,' Eli Manning has already thrown 4 interceptions. That puts him on pace to be in Tampa Bay, or St. Louis, or Tennessee next year.

"But what's more of a concern for me? J.J. Watt or Eli? Both can wreak havoc on an offense. I would have to say Watt is definitely our biggest concern. Much like my good buddy Jay-Z, I've got '99' problems."

In stark contrast to the Giants, the Texans are 2-0, leading the AFC South, after a convincing 30-14 win in Oakland. Houston's defense forced 4 turnovers, and J.J. Watt caught a 1-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick.

"You never know where Watt might show up," Bill O'Brien said. "It could be at defensive tackle, it could be at tight end, or it could be at a middle school dance shilling for Verizon."

Coughlin reads the riot act in a searing pre-game speech, lighting a fire under his troops, which is quickly extinguished when Manning throws an interception on the second play of the game. But he Giants respond with a solid defensive effort, and Manning rushes for a short score.

New York wins, 23-20.

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-9½)

Without Adrian Peterson, Matt Cassel was overwhelmed by the visiting Patriots' defense in a 30-7 loss to New England. Cassel threw 4 interceptions and was sacked 6 times.

"I didn't consider replacing Matt," Mike Zimmer said. "Unlike a certain All World running back who will remain nameless, I refused to make a 'switch.'

"Peterson has been placed on the exempt list, meaning he can't participant in team activities until his case is resolved. But has he really suffered? Through all of this, he's experienced only a few 'scratches.'

"But Adrian has apologized, and in addition to apologies, we're also accepting trade offers."

The biggest surprise in the NFL thus far may be New Orleans' 0-2 start. Last week, the Saints lost a stunner in Cleveland, as Billy Cundiff nailed a 29-yard field goal with three seconds left.

"I'm not quite sure what our problem is," Sean Payton said. "Needless to say, I'll launch a full investigation to find out.

"Obviously, our defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has his work cut out for him. This is unacceptable. Rob's got Buddy Ryan's DNA in him, for Christ's sake. If things don't change, he'll have Sean Payton's foot in him. I've made it clear that our defense's play so far has been unacceptable. Rob has promised me that he expects to see progress and improvement immediately, but said it might be a while longer before he can see his feet."

Roger Goodell makes a surprise visit to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and is seen in a luxury suite enjoying a Cajun meal, which unfortunately includes dirty rice.

The New Orleans rush comes after Cassel, and he sees the determination in their eyes, which looks an awful lot like $ signs. The Vikes run game fares no better, as the fired up Saints defense doesn't spare the rod.

Drew Brees throws for 351 yards and 4 touchdowns, and the Saints force 5 turnovers and sack Cassel 4 times.

New Orleans wins, 34-13.

Tennessee @ Cincinnati (-7)

The Bengals raced past the visiting Falcons 24-10 last week, led by a balanced offense and a defense that limited Matt Ryan to 231 yards passing.

"Ryan just looked uncomfortable," Marvin Lewis said. "That was surprising. One would think he would feel right at home in 'The Jungle,' because what player from Atlanta doesn't have 'a little African in him?' At least, according to Danny Ferry's scouting report?

"We'll have to handle the Titans without A.J. Green. He's got a nagging toe injury. So, A.J. won't be spending much time in the 'Jungle.' Instead, he'll convalesce in our team rehab facility, 'Forest Gregg.'"

The Titans lost at home to the Cowboys 26-10, let down by a defense that surrendered 220 yards on the ground.

"That was a far cry from the 67 yards rushing we gave up to the Chiefs in Week 1," Ken Whisenhunt said. "As you can expect, our rush defense ranking tumbled. Just call it a 'Titan-ic sinking.'"

Giovani Bernard rushes for a score, and turns a screen pass from Andy Dalton into a 33-yard touchdown.

Cincinnati wins, 27-14.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+2)

The Browns shocked the visiting Saints on Billy Cundiff's 29-yard field goal with three seconds left, sending the Saints home with a 26-24 defeat, and sending the Dawg Pound into a frenzy.

"We don't get much respect," Mike Pettine said. "Especially at Cleveland Municipal Stadium. In the two games here this season, our opponent has been favored. Much like Swagger, our new mascot, we're the 'Home Dog.'"

The Ravens dominated the Steelers 28-6 and evened their record at 1-1. Joe Flacco threw for 2 touchdowns and rushed for 1 score.

"Hopefully," John Harbaugh, "we can put this whole Ray Rice fiasco behind us. Maybe the third time will be the charm.

"But this is exactly the reason we signed Steve Smith, Sr. in the offseason. His veteran presence is exactly what we need in trying times. And we know Steve would never raise a hand to a woman, unless that woman is a teammate."

Baltimore wins, 23-20.

Green Bay @ Detroit (-1)

The Packers stormed back from a 21-3 second quarter deficit with 20 unanswered points and held on to beat the Jets, 31-24. Green Bay was aided when an apparent Jets touchdown was nullified by a controversial timeout call from the Jets' sideline.

"I'm not sure what the Jets' record in Wisconsin is," Aaron Rodgers said. "But I'm sure it's not good. That's why they need to 'get to a better state.' That's a State Farm reference. Here's another: maybe Rex Ryan should have used the 'Time Out Double Check.'"

The Lions were shut down offensively in a 24-7 loss to the Panthers in Charlotte last week. Carolina's defense held Calvin Johnson to 6 catches for 83 yards and limited the Lions to 70 yards on the ground.

"We ran into a wall," Jim Caldwell said. "Obviously, the Panthers defense in fur real. Ha! You just got 'Pun'd.' See, my sense of humor will only take me as far as my coaching ability.

"But seriously, this is an important game for both teams. The winner improves to 2-1, with a division victory under their belt. That's why Ndamukong Suh will take over motivational duties for the game, because no one knows the importance of getting a leg up more than Suh."

Johnson is somewhat neutralized by Packer double-teams, but Golden Tate picks up the slack, with eight catches for 134 yards and a touchdown.

Detroit wins, 30-26.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+7)

Chad Henne was sacked ten times by the Redskins in last week's 41-10 loss in Washington as the Jags fell to 0-2. They'll face the winless Colts in the home opener in Jacksonville.

"Apparently," Gus Bradley said, "our offensive line is as inconsistent as the NFL's domestic abuse policy. From what I hear, some family members of NFL players could use 'guards,' while some NFL players need 'centers,' particularly 'centers' of detention.' As for the league itself, they whiffed when trying to 'tackle' this issue.

"But despite our 0-2 record, fans are excited about Jaguars football again. Lines are actually leading into the stadium, not from it. And the marketing department is taking advantage. They are urging fans to make a 'Beeline For the Feline.'"

The Colts are 0-2 and in the AFC South basement with the Jaguars. Indy lost 30-27 on Monday night to the Eagles as Darren Sproles had seven receptions for 152 yards.

"Andrew Luck can't do it all," Chuck Pagano said. "For this team to be successful, it's going to take more than Luck. Trent is a powerful runner, but we need to see a better yards-per-rush average. They used to call him the 'Cleveland Steamer'; now, he's known as a 'Cloud of Dust' because he lacks the three yards."

Indianapolis wins, 29-17.

Oakland @ New England (-14)

The 1-1 Patriots host the 0-2 Raiders in Foxboro in the home opener for New England. The Pats stomped the Vikings 30-7 last week.

"Charles Woodson is back with the Raiders," Brady said. "I'm sure Charles never sleeps well when the subject of the 2002 AFC Championship Game comes up. But I know how to make his rest peaceful — I'll 'tuck' him in."

The Raiders have the NFL's second-worst rushing offense, and will need better production from Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew to have any chance against the Patriots.

"'Bo Knows' running backs," Derek Carr said, "and 'Bo's Nose' smells a pair of stinkers."

New England wins, 34-16.

San Francisco @ Arizona (+3)

Sixteen penalties and four Colin Kaepernick turnovers were the 49ers downfall in Sunday night's 28-20 loss to the hobbled Bears. They'll look to knock off the undefeated Cardinals.

"I think Kaepernick said it best when he said whatever it was he said that drew an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty," Jim Harbaugh said. "Colin insists he didn't say anything, and I think his assertion is valid. It's just another case of 'plausible deniability' in the NFL."

The 49ers get their act together and instead of expletives, Kaepernick hurls 2 touchdown passes.

San Fran wins, 26-20.

Denver @ Seattle (-4½)

In a rematch of last year's lopsided Super Bowl, the Broncos seek revenge and redemption against the Seahawks, who are still stinging from last week's loss in San Diego.

"That loss is still etched in our minds," Peyton Manning said. "All we can do is just forget it ever happened. That should make the league office very happy, because if there's one thing they advocate, it's amnesia."

The Seahawks wilted in the heat and humidity in San Diego last week, outplayed and out-coached by the Chargers.

"We won't dwell on that loss," Pete Carroll said. "What's done is done. We understand the importance of hydration; that's why we've thrown all our water under the bridge.

"As for the Broncos, they'll get more of what they saw in the Super Bowl. In other words, Percy Harvin. Harvin may be the most dynamic player in the NFL, and one of the loneliest. He's simply had no luck on numerous online dating sites, because he's a matchup nightmare."

The Broncos arrive with an attitude, which shouldn't be a surprise for a team that lost by 35 in the Super Bowl. Manning plays Denver's conservative game plan to perfection, and the Broncos' rebuilt defense does its part.

Denver wins, 23-21.

Kansas City @ Miami (-4½)

Despite dominating the time of possession battle 36:14 to 23:46, the Chiefs lost to Denver 24-17 after coming up short on the Broncos goal line to end the game. Now K.C. needs a win in Miami to avoid a devastating 0-3 hole.

"To compound issues," Andy Reid said, "Jamaal Charles is out with a sprained ankle. That development certainly changes our plans. But Knile Davis is a more that capable backup. I'm not sure, though, if I can come up with a capable backup plan."

"The Kansas City Royals are 14 game above .500," Andy Reid said. "It doesn't look like I'll be able to say the same for us. I think pop starlet Lorde said it best, because 'we'll never be royals.'"

Kansas City wins, 23-17.

Pittsburgh @ Carolina (-3½)

The Panthers thumped the Lions 24-7 last week to improve to 2-0, and seem well on their way to defending their NFC South crown.

"It was a tough decision to sit Greg Hardy last week," Ron Rivera said. "But I believe his situation warrants a benching, not to mention a bench warrant."

After putting up 27 points in the first half against the Browns in Week 1, the Steelers have scored only nine points since, including six in last Thursday's 28-6 loss in Baltimore.

"I bet the NFL longs for the good old days," Ben Roethlisberger said, "when their only problems consisted of players wrecking motorcycles and trapping young ladies in bathrooms. And so do I, because back then, I could do all that, and still have the time and energy to win Super Bowls."

Carolina wins, 24-16.

Chicago @ NY Jets (-3)

The Jets raced to a 21-3 in Green Bay last week before falling 31-24 at Lambeau Field. Geno Smith threw the apparent game-tying TD pass late in the fourth quarter, but the play was negated by a timeout granted just before the snap.

"It pains me to say this," Rex Ryan said, "both as a head coach and a connoisseur of foot fetishism, but we 'shot ourselves in the foot.'"

The Bears erased a 20-7 second quarter deficit with three fourth quarter touchdowns, all from Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall. Chicago's 28-20 win over the 49ers leaves them at 1-1 and in a four-way tie in the NFC South.

"That was the first regular-season game ever played at the 49ers new home," Marshall said. "You could tell the loss was really tearing Jim Harbaugh up inside, but he's got too much pride to show it. At Levi's Stadium, I guess you'd call that a 'relaxed fit.'"

New York wins, 28-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:27 PM | Comments (0)

September 17, 2014

Outside Looking In

Three weeks down into the college football season and the members of the College Football Playoff Committee already can breathe a little easier.

The Big Ten is on life support.

If Michigan State, Ohio State, or even Wisconsin were to run the rest of their table and head into the bowl season with just one loss on their resume, they'd still need a lot of help to get into the playoff. Granted, Michigan State's loss at Oregon is not that damaging a loss. However, the rest of the conference has been so atrocious that when it comes to the discussion of "Strength of Schedule", what will the Big Ten champion have to say.

They can't look to the SEC for much help. The SEC champion could have two losses and they're still getting in the playoff. They might be able to pull it off with three; given just how strong the credibility of the league is. More than half of the SEC West sits in the AP Top 10.

The SEC West hasn't lost to anyone outside of their own division. Oklahoma's Bob Stoops famously challenged the strength of the bottom-tiered teams in the SEC. The team picked last in the West, Arkansas, rolled into Lubbock, took on a Texas Tech team picked to finish sixth in the Big 12, and promptly demolished them to the tune of 49-28. In other words, Stoops (and the rest of the nation) got the message.

As for the East, they lack the overall teeth of the West. However, Georgia did handle Clemson with ease, which means that, should Clemson stun Florida State this weekend and then go on to win the ACC, the SEC could attempt to get two teams in. However, the last weekend of the regular season would have to feature a lot of SEC teams beating down their ACC rivals and I don't think anyone is betting on Florida to take down the Seminoles.

So the Big 10 isn't going to get any love from the SEC. The situation looks impossible if favorites Oklahoma, Oregon, and Florida State run the table in their respective conferences. Florida State's ranking, along with a solid non-conference win over Oklahoma State, helps their cause. Oregon's beatdown of Michigan State definitely holds leverage for themselves and the Pac-12, as well.

As for Oklahoma, they got an important win over Tennessee, but will need some help if they slip and things end up in a tiebreak. No doubt, the Sooners are all wearing purple on Thursday, hoping Bill Snyder can pull off the upset over Auburn. A Wildcat win would go a long way in sealing a slot in the playoff for the Big 12. A KSU win could save a team like Baylor, whose non-conference slate is a feast of various cream puffs.

The Big Ten can't afford any Cinderella stories as well. That's why even a team like BYU has to lose to help their slim cause. The Cougars don't get the luxury of a power conference to help their cause. However, a 41-7 drubbing of Texas raised some eyes and gives them a shot to make the last four should they run the table. Admittedly, the chances then are still slim, but a 12-0 BYU team would still likely have an edge over a Big Ten champion at this point.

That is the rock bottom level that the Big Ten has reached. That's how much the last two weeks have affected them as a conference. Rarely, if ever, has a power conference had such a lousy stretch (with exception to Penn State's reversal of fortune with the NCAA). Regardless, the Big Ten has to have lots of help to climb back to the top. Just three weeks into the season, they're on the outside looking in.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 6:07 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 27

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski dominated the late restarts at Chicagoland and cruised to the win in the MyAfibStory.com 400. He built on his lead in the points standings, and now leads Jeff Gordon by 7.

"I automatically advanced to the next round of the Chase," Keselowski said. "So you can pencil my name on the bracket to the 'Contender' round. And speaking of things written in pencil, the Chase format has seen more alterations than Bruton Smith's pants."

2. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished second at Chicagoland, a solid start in his quest for a fifth Sprint Cup championship.

"The 'Drive For Five' is still alive," Gordon said. "But I have to be careful not to get ahead of myself. First, I have to make sure the 'Drive For 12,' is alive, then the 'Drive For 8,' then the 'Drive For 4.'"

3. Joey Logano — Logano finished fourth in the MyAfibStory.com 400 at Chicagoland as Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski took the victory.

"My goal is to be one of the four drivers to make it to that final round," Logano said. "Obviously, we can't call it the 'Final Four' because the NCAA would sue. I say we broker a tie-in with that apocalyptic HBO series and call that final race 'The Leftovers.'"

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 11th at Chicagoland as Penske Racing's Brad Keselowski won. Earnhardt is fifth in the points standings, 17 behind Keselowski.

"It was a decent start start to the Chase," Earnhardt said. "It could have been better, but at least there were no fans climbing the fence. I bet if we scheduled a race in southern Texas, that certainly wouldn't be the case."

5. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished 12th at Chicagoland. He is sixth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 18 behind Brad Keselowski.

"Luckily," Johnson said, "there was no hot air blowing into my helmet on Sunday. But if I don't make a statement at Dover, it could be time for a 'cold sweat.' It's no time to panic, though. Now, more than ever, I need to 'be cool.'"

6. Kevin Harvick — Harvick led a race high 79 laps and finished fifth at Chicagoland.

"I switched pit crews with Tony Stewart," Harvick said. "I'm happy about that, but my former pit crew is not. They worked 26 races to get me in the Chase. Now, they're out. You could say they were 'Un-Happy-ed.'"

7. Matt Kenseth — On a strong day for Joe Gibbs Racing , Kenseth finished tenth at Chicagoland as teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch finished sixth and seventh, respectively.

"The Chase format is new and improved," Kenseth said. "First, you have the 'Challenger' round, then somewhere along the way there's the 'Eliminator' round. I'm not sure what the other rounds are called, but I assume they're named after ZZ Top albums, as well."

8. Kurt Busch — Busch posted his eighth top-10 of the year with an eighth in the MyAfibStory.com 400.

"I made contact with my brother Kyle midway through the race," Busch said. "That's one instance where neither Kurt nor I can argue that a Busch was at fault."

9. Kyle Busch — Busch started on the pole with the highest practice speed after qualifying was rained out. He led 46 laps and finished seventh.

"Not only did Kurt and I make contact," Busch said, "Danica Patrick and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. got together to bring out the final caution. Neither was happy. But is anyone really surprised that there's friction between them?"

10. Kyle Larson — Larson led 20 laps at Chicagoland and engaged Kevin Harvick in a lively battle for the lead late in the race. While Larson and Harvick fought, Brad Keselowski slipped through the middle and led the rest of the way. Larson finished third.

"Had I made the Chase," Larson said, "I could have been an unlikely contender. Chip Ganassi Racing has often partnered with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. and Teresa Earnhardt, so if I can borrow Dale, Jr.'s evil stepmother, then this Cinderella story would have been in business."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:22 PM | Comments (0)

September 16, 2014

2014 NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* A jarring new report estimates that nearly 30% of former NFL players will experience cognitive problems like Alzheimer's disease and dementia. That is a staggering statistic. If there's not some solution in the near future to improve players' outlook, we all need to rethink whether this is a sport we can support.

* Sorry if I ruined your survivor pool. I'm out, but next week I like the Falcons and Texans. There are several chalk picks (Bengals, Patriots, Saints), but you might want to save those teams for later in the season.

* Bill Belichick hates your fantasy team.

* This was Belichick's 200th regular-season win. His 200-106 record ranks fourth (.654) among 200-game winners, behind Don Shula, George Halas, and Paul Brown, but ahead of Curly Lambeau, Tom Landry, and Marty Schottenheimer.

* At this point, I would regard Belichick as the third-best head coach in the history of professional football. That's up a little from my 2012 ranking of the best coaches in history, but he just keeps winning division titles, often with teams not obviously stacked with talent.

* * *

I don't want the power rankings to just be about injuries, so let's use this space to address this week's rash of star player misfortunes, then move on with a clean slate.

* Robert Griffin III looked great at the beginning of Sunday's game, but exited early with a dislocated ankle. Monday's MRI showed no fracture, but he's expected to miss 1-2 months, probably closer to two. The team has confidence in backup Kirk Cousins, and he's an appropriate add as a backup QB in fantasy leagues. If you drafted RG3 without selecting a quality backup, I have no sympathy for you.

* DeSean Jackson sprained his shoulder, but it's not a long-term injury. He'll probably play in Week 3.

* The Chiefs are reporting Jamaal Charles' injury as a high-ankle sprain. Expect him to miss several weeks. Fantasy owners who lost Charles, you need to acquire Knile Davis. In FAAB leagues, it's appropriate to spend half your budget on him.

* Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry also has a sprained ankle, but apparently not of the high-ankle variety. Good news for Kansas City.

* A.J. Green has a ligament strain, effectively a toe injury. He's expected to miss Week 3, but the Bengals have a Week 4 bye and he should be back after that.

* Ryan Mathews sprained his MCL and is expected to miss 4-5 weeks. Donald Brown will take most of his snaps in the meantime, but he's probably not a priority add in fantasy.

* Mark Ingram has a broken hand and will miss at least a month. Knowshon Moreno dislocated his elbow and is going to miss a lot of time. Lamar Miller could be a quality add in fantasy.

* Gerald McCoy, of whom head coach Lovie Smith said, "He's the best at his position in the league," left Sunday's game with a broken hand. The timetable for McCoy's return is uncertain, but expect him to miss some time.

* Seattle safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor left Sunday's game with cramps. Nothing to worry about here.

* Vontaze Burfict left the season opener with a concussion, and this week's game with a stinger. As of this writing, his status going forward is not clear.

* Bears CB Charles Tillman re-injured the triceps he tore last year. The team will place him on injured reserve, ending his season and maybe his career.

It was sort of a depressing week. Let's move on with power rankings. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. Denver Broncos [2] — The Chiefs nearly doubled their third-down percentage, and won time of possession by 12:28 — actually, Kansas City won every major stat but scoring. The Broncos built a 21-10 halftime lead and nearly gave the game away in the second half. So far this season, Denver has outscored opponents 45-17 in the first half, but been outscored 24-10 in the second. Sixty minutes, Broncos.

2. Seattle Seahawks [1] — Replay officials admit they blew the call on Percy Harvin's TD run, but it was still a great play. Harvin and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell are a match made in heaven for Seahawk fans, made somewhere else if you root for their opponents. The Seahawks ran only 40 offensive plays on Sunday, and San Diego ran 75. Seattle lost time of possession by 24:30.

3. Cincinnati Bengals [4] — My rule is that rankings are for right now, and they probably shouldn't be so high without A.J. Green, but I don't want to drop them after a big win, then move them up five spots during the bye week. Through two games, the Cincinnati offense has no turnovers and no sacks allowed. They missed three field goals against Atlanta and should have won by at least 20.

4. San Francisco 49ers [3] — Sixteen penalties for 118 yards and 6 Chicago first downs. That doesn't include two declined penalties. San Francisco and Chicago ultimately combined for 26 accepted penalties and 7 declined, much to Al Michaels' consternation. Most of the calls were correct, but Michaels was basically right. The first 7:00 of the game took 40 minutes of real time — it's usually about half of that.

You can't lose the turnover battle by four and expect to win, but they won't lose the turnover battle by four again all season. Colin Kaepernick is terrible at clock management, though, and he needs to improve. He wasted a critical timeout late in the fourth quarter that assured a one-possession game, and got called for delay of game four plays later.

5. New England Patriots [10] — In addition to his field goal block, which he returned for a touchdown, Chandler Jones made six solo tackles and two sacks against the Vikings. Tom Brady is not off to a sensational start. He's 27th in passing yards per game (199), right between Derek Carr and Geno Smith. He's tied for 18th in TD passes, and his 78.9 passer rating ranks 28th among qualified passers, again behind Carr. The Patriots haven't had a home game yet.

6. San Diego Chargers [12] — Overcame a four-day rest deficit and a bizarre replay failure to defeat the defending champs. The Chargers who played on Monday night in Week 1, held up better in the extreme heat (94° and humid) than Seattle, who played the previous Thursday. Antonio Gates scored three TDs for the first time since 2005.

7. Green Bay Packers [7] — Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson played great and they got their first win of the season. But I want to go back to last week, the loss at Seattle. During the game, announcers pointed out that Richard Sherman always covers the same side of the field, and Green Bay was keeping Nelson away from him. Losing Jarrett Boykin for a week isn't that big a deal if it gets Nelson a favorable matchup. It seemed smart.

A week later, it's apparent that the Packers messed up. Johnny Unitas told of the great respect coach Weeb Ewbank had for cornerback Night Train Lane. "He'd tell me, 'Don't throw the ball in his area.' Well, hell, I wasn't going to give him the day off. So I'd throw at him, and maybe he'd pick one off, but we could do things against him, too." The Chargers showed that this weekend, but their strategy was effective less because they hit plays against Sherman than because it opened up the field. In the opener, Seattle could slide its safeties toward Rodgers' left, because they knew he wasn't throwing to the right. Philip Rivers had the whole field to work with. Putting Boykin on the right and taking Sherman out of the game seemed like a good idea, but it didn't play out that way. Rodgers may not be Unitas, but he's quite a player, and he shouldn't give anyone the day off.

8. Philadelphia Eagles [11] — Ran 12 drives on Monday night. Eight of them lasted under 2:00, and all of them were under 4:00. Philadelphia started two backup offensive linemen, and it showed. There were few running lanes for LeSean McCoy, and Andrew Gardner really struggled in pass protection. The Eagles have been outscored 34-6 in the first half and have outscored their opponents 58-10 in the second half. I don't know if it's the fast-paced offense wearing people down, or just a coincidence, but that's a +76 point flip.

9. Houston Texans [14] — The Texans look like a good team. They've won both their games by double digits and they lead the NFL in scoring defense. I believe J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the league, but in all the fuss over his 1-yard touchdown catch, no one's mentioning that he had a statistical zero on defense: no tackles, no assists, no pass deflections. I wish we would stop going gaga over players doing things outside their normal duties. This was not a good game for Watt.

10. Atlanta Falcons [5] — Roddy White sat out of practice on Monday with a hamstring issue. White was gimpy for most of 2013 and it really weighed down the offense. Matt Ryan thrived throwing to Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, and White, but now Gonzalez is retired, White can't stay healthy, and Jones is a constant injury risk.

11. New Orleans Saints [6] — Certainly the best 0-2 team in the league. They have two last-second losses, both on the road, and they're a great home team. Drew Brees this week passed John Elway for fourth place on the all-time passing yardage list. Brees' career is statistically comparable to Tom Brady's, and he's never had the kind of teammates Brady did in the Super Bowl years. Brees might be among the 10 best QBs of all time, and I don't think his career gets the recognition it deserves.

12. Carolina Panthers [16] — Lead the NFL in turnover differential, +6. Cam Newton looked great in his return from a rib injury, and the numbers would have been even better if Kelvin Benjamin could catch. The defense did great without Greg Hardy. Mario Addison had 2.5 sacks, Antoine Cason forced two fumbles and recovered one, and Melvin White defensed three passes, including a pick.

13. Arizona Cardinals [18] — Carson Palmer missed Sunday's game with a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder. Backup Drew Stanton got Larry Fitzgerald involved but didn't play particularly well (167 yds, 66.3 rating, 4 sacks). The Cardinals won with four takeaways. Calais Campbell led the defense with 10 solo tackles, three of them behind the line of scrimmage and one of them a sack.

14. Detroit Lions [8] — Absolutely dominated the Giants, then scored 7 against Carolina. The Giants may be one of those teams so bad that nothing you can do to them is really impressive.

15. Indianapolis Colts [13] — Trent Richardson did okay on Monday night, but it was funny to hear Jon Gruden making excuses for him. "Remember, Marshall Faulk didn't run the ball very well here either in Indianapolis, and he did okay." Marshall Faulk? That was 20 years ago. Faulk played for the Colts from 1994-98. He had four 1,000-yard seasons, averaged 3.83 yards per rush, caught 60 passes a year, and scored 51 TDs. Richardson, so far, is nowhere near that level. And what about Edgerrin James? For that matter, the Indy offense made Joseph Addai look pretty good for a couple of years. Just as Gruden finished speaking, Ahmad Bradshaw broke a 29-yard run.

16. Miami Dolphins [9] — Keep an eye on the Wembley curse. The Dolphins play in London in Week 4, and teams often seem to struggle the week before the trip. A home game against the injury-riddled Chiefs should probably be a win, and I wouldn't stress a game with the Raiders if it were being played on the moon, but you never know.

17. Baltimore Ravens [17] — Since NFL Network began airing Thursday games, the home team is 40-24 on Thursday nights (.625). Baltimore, in the John Harbaugh era, is 40-10 at home (.800). The Ravens could have and probably should have won by more this week. They went 2/6 in the red zone, kicking four field goals of 30 yards or less. It wasn't a big deal in their 20-point victory over the Steelers, but in close games, you can't turn four trips inside the 10-yard line into only 12 points.

18. New York Jets [15] — The story has become their lost TD. With about 5:00 left, Geno Smith threw a game-tying touchdown pass to Jeremy Kerley, but the play didn't count because New York had been granted a timeout right before the snap. Defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, last season's Defensive Rookie of the Year, got the official's attention and accepted the blame, but offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg was the one who originally wanted a timeout. That's a bummer, but it shouldn't really be the story. The bigger issue is, How do you blow an 18-point lead? In Week 1, the Jets overcame mistakes to win, because they were playing a bad team. You can't do that most weeks.

19. Buffalo Bills [23] — C.J. Spiller is the first player since 1973 (Houston Oilers RB Bob Gresham) with a 100+ yard kickoff return and a run longer than 45 yards in the same game (h/t PFHOF). The Bills are one of seven 2-0 teams, and they're the lowest-ranked here. If they beat the Chargers in Week 3, they'll get a big jump.

20. Chicago Bears [21] — All the defensive injuries have to worry you, but that was a sensational comeback. Jay Cutler's second half: 13-of-14, 122 yds, 3 TD, no sacks, no turnovers. Brandon Marshall played through injury and came up huge. He's a special talent.

21. St. Louis Rams [19] — Overcame an hour-long weather delay, a third-string quarterback, and their own inability to stop Bobby Rainey. Two blocked kicks, by E.J. Gaines and T.J. McDonald, were probably a 9-point swing, in a 19-17 game.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers [20] — CBS showed a graphic with the horrifying number of sacks Ben Roethlisberger has taken since 2004, about 50% more than second-place Eli Manning. Phil Simms made the sorriest excuse for Big Ben, explaining to viewers that Roethlisberger takes sacks because he's a mobile QB and he extends plays. Broadly speaking, it is true that scramblers take more sacks than pocket passers. But Ben Roethlisberger isn't exactly Cam Newton. Simms actually compared him to Randall Cunningham, which is absurd.

Roethlisberger's career high in rushing is 204 yards. Cunningham doubled that six times. Thirteen active QBs have multiple seasons with 200+ rush yards. As a scrambler, Roethlisberger isn't Michael Vick (209 sacks since '04) or Randall Cunningham; he's not even Jay Cutler or Ryan Fitzpatrick. And his sack total isn't a little higher than other QBs, it's worlds more, light years more, it's another universe of sacks. Simms' explanation doesn't actually explain anything. But there's a reason Simms wanted to make excuses for a QB who took too many sacks. Phil's own career sack percentage, 9.3%, was even worse than Ben's.

23. Washington [26] — Injury news at the top. Let's talk defense. It was the team's biggest win since 2008 (34-3 over Detroit), and their most sacks in a game since 1977, when the stat was unofficial. Ryan Kerrigan had 4, and certainly Kerrigan is a player. He dominated Cameron Bradfield in the second half. But the real difference-maker is Jason Hatcher, a free agent from Dallas. Hatcher was credited with 1.5 sacks, plus he commands the double-teams that create opportunities for Brian Orakpo and Kerrigan.

24. Cleveland Browns [30] — Brian Hoyer holds off Johnny Manziel for another week, but they won first and foremost with defense. The Saints punted on each of their first four drives, and Tashaun Gipson's interception return for a touchdown was the critical play of the game.

25. Dallas Cowboys [27] — For years, fans have implored Jason Garrett to run the ball more often. Through two games, he's finally listening. DeMarco Murray leads the NFL in rushing, and the Cowboys dominated on the ground in Week 2. They gained twice as many first downs as the Titans, 26-13, and controlled time of possession for 41:11.

26. Minnesota Vikings [24] — Adrian Peterson and Carolina's Greg Hardy have gotten caught up in the mishandling of the Ray Rice case. But in all the outrage over Rice, there's something we've missed. It's very, very chic right now to bash the league, and Commissioner Roger Goodell specifically. You aren't cool unless you're appalled by the league. But this is actually a new problem.

Not that players haven't committed domestic abuse before — I'm sure that's been happening since the league was founded almost 100 years ago — but no one's ever gotten in trouble for it before this. Ever. The league is being held to a standard that didn't exist a year ago. I'm not saying we shouldn't hold the league to a high standard, but I find it hard to blame Goodell and his colleagues for not acting in a way that no one ever has.

The Atlantic City incident only became a big deal because everyone saw it. It's disturbing that no one cared about domestic violence until we saw it, and it's hypocritical to get self-righteous about it now. I applaud a higher standard on this issue, but let's put in context the actions of the league officials. The idea that athletes should be punished by the league (as opposed to the criminal justice system) for off-field transgressions is relatively new. It used to be as long as you didn't beat up an opposing player or bet on a game, you were fine. Then we added performance-enhancing drugs. That's still about protecting the game itself. All the major leagues now have drug-testing policies that include recreational drugs, but those policies are collectively bargained with the unions. Everyone understands that they exist and what punishments are in place.

I would love to see every league create an official domestic violence policy, but such a thing has never existed before, in any of the major North American sports leagues. The initial two-game suspension given to Rice was clumsy and inadequate, but this whole affair has turned into a witch hunt. I don't care whether Goodell saw the elevator video or not. This isn't Watergate. The outrage isn't even directed at the abusers any more, it's at the league officials who are perceived to have mishandled an incident unlike any they've handled before. Let's give those guys a break. The biggest story in the NFL is an exciting new football season, not whether or not the Commissioner lied to reporters.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [22] — Man, am I glad I didn't get Doug Martin in fantasy.

28. Tennessee Titans [25] — Highest time of possession in Week 1, 37:44. Second-worst time of possession in Week 1, 18:49. The Titans went 2/10 on third downs and Jake Locker threw two interceptions. Tennessee has a roller-coaster schedule coming up: two tough road games (Bengals, Colts) followed by two winnable home games (Browns, Jaguars).

29. Kansas City Chiefs [28] — Began the third quarter with a 19-play, 10-minute, 62-yard drive ... ending in a missed field goal. CBS announced that it was KC's longest drive in 16 years. Altogether the Chiefs had five drives of at least nine plays and 50 yards, and those five great drives led to just 14 points.

30. Oakland Raiders [29] — Fell behind 27-0 before a couple late TDs made it look respectable. Safety Charles Woodson said after the game, "I'm embarrassed for this team and for the fans." The Raiders are last in the NFL in time of possession, averaging 23:17. They're 15-point underdogs at New England in Week 3.

31. New York Giants [31] — Great exchange about Eli Manning on NFL Gameday Final...

Deion Sanders: "I still believe in Eli."

Michael Irvin: "Deion, Eli's mom and dad is the only ones believing in Eli right now."

Later, Deion admitted, "The Giants might get the first pick [in next year's draft], the way it looks right now." Obviously Sanders didn't see the Jaguars game.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — Embarrassing performance. They lost 41-10. They gave up 32 first downs and gained 8. They were out-gained 449-148. The Jaguars had 6 three-and-outs, including their first four drives, for a total of -14 yards. They didn't run a play across midfield until the fourth quarter. A professional team should never play so badly.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:05 PM | Comments (0)

September 15, 2014

Realizing Brevity is Beauty in College

It's not breaking any news to say that the second week of September was a horrific one for the sport of football in general. In fact, in 10-20 years' time, we may look back on this past week as the beginning of the end of football's reign as America's most popular spectator sport.

And from the Ray Rice video that appeared early Monday morning, to John Abraham's awful memory loss brought on by years of head injuries to Adrian Peterson's indictment on child abuse charges, each piece of bad news makes me wonder seriously if this is a sport I want to support. I also have concerns if it's one that can even survive due to prohibitive public health concerns.

Of course, all of these big stories this week were in the NFL and not college football. But the naiveté ship of college football somehow being a more pure game has long since sailed. Former Missouri receiver Dorial Green-Beckham will likely play next year for Oklahoma after assaulting a woman this past offseason. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner was accused of rape last year, and not charged after a shamefully weak investigation. And then there's the continued behavior of the NCAA, athletic directors and university presidents, who are clinging to a broken and outdated pretense of amateurism.

From a personal fandom standpoint, this season began in a frustrating way. South Carolina, my favorite college team, was projected by many to win the SEC East. A very manageable schedule by SEC standards meant that a conference championship, a potential one-loss season and a berth in the inaugural College Football Playoff weren't necessarily overly optimistic goals.

Then the games started.

From the first drive on against Texas A&M, the Gamecocks were thoroughly outclassed on both sides of the ball. The only respite came on a couple of long first-half touchdown passes for South Carolina, each time because the same Aggie defensive back made an error. For Week 2, the Gamecocks had to pull out a victory over underdog East Carolina with a marathon drive in the fourth quarter. In retrospect, after the Pirates' win at Virginia Tech, that close call might be a quality win.

But facing Georgia would be another challenge entirely after the Bulldogs’ dominant second half against Clemson followed by a bye week. Frankly, it was a challenge I thought would be over South Carolina's head.

When thunderstorms in the Columbia area delayed the start of the game by 90 minutes, my reaction was something along the lines of, "Hey, they won't lose until 8:30 Eastern!" It also meant that I could watch the conclusion of the excellent Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid game, the second straight game in the early Spanish La Liga season that Real has lost.

In juxtaposing the sports during a day watching soccer and college football, and after reading Bill Connelly's magnificent series this week of soccer travels in England, the beauty of college football, despite everything frustrating and supremely concerning about it, became crystal-clear.

As you probably know by now if you're reading this, South Carolina saved its season (for now) with a heart-stopping 38-35 win. The fourth quarter alone felt like it had enough dramatics for a couple months, or even a season. The Outback Bowl after the 2012 season was the only true comparison I can offer as a Gamecocks fan from a suspense standpoint, with the caveat that bowls, to me, are not as important as games with iconic and/or good conference teams.

The fact that this contest was such a huge SEC tilt led me to conclude that college football's most wonderful aspect is its brevity.

There's a certain amount of irony in making a statement like this, depending on what angle you take. After all, televised college football games typically run longer than NFL games and even most playoff baseball games. But the season is so short that every game takes on a massive importance that no other big professional or college sport can offer.

Think about the massive stakes for the Georgia/South Carolina game. If Georgia had won, it would effectively have a two-game lead plus a tiebreaker over South Carolina. The Bulldogs likely would have been favorites for every remaining game, and an Oct. 11 win at Missouri would have made it extremely tough for anyone else to win the East. A South Carolina loss would have effectively meant the Gamecocks' goal of going to Atlanta was dead and buried a mere 16 days after kicking off the season.

Now, as it stands, while you'd think that Georgia still has the strongest team on paper in that division, it's anyone's to win.

If you're looking for those kinds of stakes and potential implications in a September NFL game, or a contest in the first several weeks of a major European soccer league, you won't find them. And even though if you follow both sports, you're sure to hear talk this week of why 0-2 NFL teams can't make the playoffs, or why Real Madrid 's hundreds of millions have destabilized the Champions League winners, the fact is that they have quite a bit of time and many opportunities to turn things around.

When South Carolina clinched the game on Saturday after the closest first down measurement you could ever possibly imagine, I had to lay on the floor and simply laugh at what I had just seen. In no other sport can you have such crazy finishes and have them mean so much to the progression of a season so early in the season.

And while one incredible game of football on a rainy Saturday evening in South Carolina's Midlands won't have any impact on the societal and wellness issues that affect the sport, it did remind me why I watch, and why the thrill of down-to-the-wire competition in college football is unlike anything else.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:42 AM | Comments (0)

September 11, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 2

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-2½)

The AFC North's deepest rivalry takes center stage on NFL Network's Thursday Night Football, as the Ravens host the Steelers. The Ravens are looking to avoid an 0-2 hole in the division after last week's 23-16 loss to the Bengals.

"Losing to the Bengals is not the end of the world," John Harbaugh said. "It's not a slap in the face; it's more like a slap on the wrist.

"We certainly had our chances to win, and in review, it hurts to see how close we were. I don't know what's more painful to watch — the video tape, or the security footage."

"Simply put, we have to play better. I'll tell the team the same thing I told Ray Rice — 'elevate your game, not your fiancée.'"

The Steelers blew a 24-point lead before finally finishing off the Browns 30-27 last week. Pittsburgh's offense was superb, while the defense was not, surrendering 189 yards on the ground.

"Normally," Mike Tomlin said, "Dick Lebeau grades a rush defense satisfactory if its opponent's rushing yardage is below his age. Unfortunately, it only seems like Dick's 190. Of course, fixing our defense won't be easy. Unfortunately, prune juice isn't the cure-all that Lebeau thinks it is. Maybe Dick should try smoking marijuana. If you're affiliated with the Steelers, and your last name begins with 'Le,' then you apparently have to try it.

"In years past, Steelers/Ravens clashes were often described as 'smashmouth' football. Out of respect for a lady who will remain nameless, use of that term should be 'suspended indefinitely.' One day, when we look back on this whole affair, we'll gaze at the statue of Ray Rice standing majestically outside M&T Bank Stadium. In doing so, we may finally make sense of the situation, and realize that of all the entities in the Rice fiasco, TMZ emerged as the most credible."

Holding a slim 24-23 lead with time winding down in the fourth quarter, the Steelers D stuffs Bernard Pierce on a fourth and less-than-an-inch rush attempt, proving that not only can the Ravens not walk a fine line, they can't run one either.

Pittsburgh wins, 24-23.

Miami @ Buffalo (+1)

In Week 1's most surprising upset, the Bills stunned the Bears 23-20 in overtime in Chicago, powered by a solid day from E.J. Manuel, who passed for a score and ran for another.

"It appears E.J. has overcome his accuracy issues," Doug Marrone said. "'Wild Bill' may have been a cool nickname for an Old West gunslinger, but it's not for a quarterback.

"Now, you may have heard about the shouting match I had with some members of our front office. It was the biggest hullabaloo in Buffalo since Brett Hull stuck his foot in the crease. I don't mean to brag, but let's just say that much like the Super Bowl, the Bills front office can't win a shouting match, either. I call it being 'fiery;' they call it being 'fire-y.'"

Like the Bills, the Dolphins are 1-0 after an upset victory. Miami stormed back from a 20-10 deficit to beat the Patriots, 33-20.

"The Patriots are 0-1," Ryan Tannehill said, "and in sole possession of last place in the AFC East. Is it time to panic in New England? If it is, you're likely to see a Patriots-TMZ alliance, because they both probably have film that the other wants."

Manuel's mobility keeps the Miami rush at bay, and C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combine for 180 total yards.

Buffalo wins, 24-19.

Jacksonville @ Washington (-6)

The Jaguars built a 17-0 first half lead at Philadelphia last week before yielding 34 unanswered second half points in a 34-17 loss to the Eagles.

"My goal when I took this job was to build a strong defense," Gus Bradley said. "I guess we're only halfway there.

"We can certainly relate to the plight of the 'Redskins' name. Like 'Redskins,' 'the 'Jaguars' name has been associated with oppression, as well, mainly because we've been abused by our rivals for years. And likewise, we refuse to change our name."

The Redskins dropped a 17-6 decision at Houston last week, done in by big plays on both sides of the ball by the Texans, and a mediocre showing from Robert Griffin III.

"I would classify RG3's performance as 'pedestrian,'" Jay Gruden said. "Mainly because he's afraid to run. Maybe his endorsement deal is going to his head, because he's playing like a 'sub.'

"But at least the Ray Rice fiasco has taken attention away from the 'Redskins' name controversy. I imagine if there were footage of atrocities committed by the white man over the last six centuries, the NFL wouldn't have it, TMZ would, and we'd have to change our names."

A defiant Daniel Snyder commandeers the FedEx Field public address system and blares Destiny's Child's "Say My Name" as the home team hits the field. A pumped up Griffin makes a concerted effort to throw the ball downfield, and an even more concerted effort to complete those throws. DeSean Jackson gets the scoring started, taking a quick out from Griffin and outrunning the Jag defense for a 65-yard score.

Washington wins, 27-16.

Dallas @ Tennessee (-3½)

What's the bigger story in Dallas? The current state of the dreadful Cowboys defense, or the signing of Michael Sam to the team's practice squad? The Cowboys fell into a 28-3 hole in the first half and never recovered, losing 28-17 to San Francisco last week.

"I can tell you this," Jason Garrett said. "The 'LGBT' community is not happy. That's the fanatical segment of Dallas fans who want success, and want it now — the 'Let's Go 'Boys Today' community.

"On the bright side, at least our defense showed up for one half. Unfortunately, so did the 49ers offense."

The Titans, under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt, physically dominated the Chiefs on both sides of the ball.

"There are a lot of people that say Jerry Jones is bringing the Cowboys down," Whisenhunt said. "Of course, Jones refuses to see it that way. I suppose the Cowboys are doomed to failure until Jones 'owns it.'

"As for the Titans owner, that was Bud Adams up until his death in October last year. Unlike Jones, Bud was known for giving the finger, not getting it."

A loss could spell "disaster" for the Cowboys. With a capital "D." So give me a "Big D," an "I," an "S" ... you get the picture.

Jake Locker throws for 2 scores, and the Titans rush for 157 yards.

Tennessee wins, 27-21.

Arizona @ NY Giants (+2)

The Cardinals ground out a tough 18-17 win over the visiting Chargers on Monday night, getting the game-winning points on Carson Palmer's 13-yard TD pass to rookie John Brown.

"You probably heard that about Larry Fitzgerald's dad," Palmer said. "He tweeted his displeasure after Larry had only one reception in the game. To be a father, he sure does a lot of mothering.

"I don't want to throw to Larry unless he's open. The last thing I want to do is force anything, unless it's a trade."

The Giants looked overmatched in Monday's 35-14 loss at Ford Field in Detroit. The G-Men gave up 341 yards passing, and Calvin Johnson had 7 receptions for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"Some would say my receivers and I weren't 'on the same page,'" Manning said. "But, in fact, we were. Because we're all on the last page, of the official NFL player statistics page.

"Our offense relies heavily on play call changes at the line of scrimmage. Often, these changes are made in the form of hand signals. As one could see on Monday, my receivers didn't understand my hand signals. If this happens against the Cardinals, you can best believe our receivers will understand our fans' hand signals."

Chandler Catanzaro kicks a late field goal, giving the jet-lagged Cards a 20-19 win.

New England @ Minnesota (+3)

The Patriots are 0-1 after last week's 33-20 loss at Miami, a game in which the Pats held a 20-10 halftime lead. They'll look to rebound in TCF Bank Stadium, temporary home of the Vikings.

"I wasn't pleased with my second half performance in Miami," Brady said. "Earlier this year, I said I wouldn't retire until I 'suck.' I call that the 'Suck Rule.' I almost hung it up after the Dolphins game. If that would have been the case, I would have been like a lot of Northerners, because I would have retired in Miami."

The Vikings pounded the Rams in St. Louis 34-6, led by a big day from Cordarrelle Patterson and a stifling effort from the Vikings defense, which certainly pleased head coach Mike Zimmer.

"Unlike former Viking great Jim Marshall," Zimmer said, "this defense is headed in the right direction. The 'Purple People Eaters' are back, and I'm certainly not referring to the staff on a Lake Minnetonka sex cruise."

If there's one thing Bill Bellichick knows, it's Matt Cassel. Bellichick made Cassel. And he will break him.

The Patriots defense bounces back, picking off Cassell twice, and Tom Brady throws for 310 yards and 3 scores.

New England wins, 31-17.

New Orleans @ Cleveland (+7)

The Browns battled back from a 24-point deficit to the Steelers before eventually losing 30-27 last week in Pittsburgh. Quarterback Brian Hoyer was serviceable, going 19-31 for 230 yards and 1 touchdown.

"Speaking of 'serviceable,'" Mike Petine said, "Johnny Manziell certainly considers himself as such when he makes his monthly pilgrimages to Las Vegas.

"But don't expect Johnny to start anytime soon. Hoyer's doing just fine, especially considering he's without Josh Gordon. Josh is reportedly working for a car dealership in Ohio. His expertise isn't in sales, it's in purchasing.

"Honestly, I think the ideal job for Josh would be working with the police department. He'd make a great overseer of the lot where seized vehicles are stored. It would be called the 'Dawg Impound.'"

The Saints are reeling after their 37-34 overtime loss to the Falcons last week. The New Orleans offense piled up 472 yards, but their defense surrendered 568.

"Our defense was so bad," Sean Payton said, "I had to 'look the other way.' But I think our players would never succumb to domestic violence. I don't think you could pay them to hit a woman. A man? That's another story."

"Matt Ryan passed for 448 yards. Obviously, Richard Sherman doesn't play for us. But we apparently played our own version of the 'Sherman defense,' because we watched Atlanta 'burn.'"

New Orleans wins, 33-20.

Atlanta @ Cincinnati (-4½)

The Bengals overpowered the Ravens in Baltimore, building a 15-0 lead on five Mike Nugent field goals before eventually winning on Andy Dalton's 77-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Green.

"For a kicker," Marvin Lewis said, "I thought Nugent showed great 'three' technique.

"But it will take more than field goals to beat the Falcons. When we're in scoring range, we need touchdowns. When you get inside your opponent's 20-yard-line, it's called the 'red zone.' Similarly, when you stretch your budget to give your quarterback a massive contract that he may not necessarily deserve, it's called being 'in the red zone.' We need Andy Dalton to get us out of both."

The Falcons out-offensed the Saints last week, winning 37-34 in overtime on Matt Bryant's 52-yard field goal. Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons avenged two losses to New Orleans last year.

"We couldn't have scripted it any better," Ryan said. "I take that back. We could have scripted it without the Saints' 34 points.

"If there was a bounty on my head, it wasn't collected. The payoff was a lot like my receivers — it went unchecked."

Nugent kicks the game-winner, and the Bengals intercept Ryan's Hail Mary pass as time expires.

Cincinnati wins, 27-24.

Detroit @ Carolina (-2½)

Without Cam Newton, the Panthers ground out a tough 20-14 win over the Bucs in Tampa Bay. The Panthers defense forced 3 turnovers against the lethargic Tampa offense, but the high-powered Lions attack presents a much greater challenge.

"The Lions may have 'Megatron,'" Cam Newton said, "but we have 'Mega-Ron.' That's head coach Ron Rivera. Apparently, there's room for two superheroes on this team, but no room for any veteran wide receivers."

The Lions jumped on the Giants early last week, as Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson hooked up for two first quarter scores. Stafford finished with 341 yards passing and added a rushing score in the fourth quarter in the 35-14 win.

"The Giants actually tried to single-cover Calvin Johnson," Stafford said. "That why we were able to more than 'double-cover' the spread."

The Panthers choose "tails" at the opening coin toss, just one of many game-time decisions to come this year. Newton dons a flak jacket to protect his sore ribs from the hits of would-be Detroit tacklers, and the cleats of would-be cheap shots from Ndamukong Suh.

Detroit wins, 23-20.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay (-5)

Quarterback issues continue to compound in St. Louis. Shaun Hill left last week's game against the Vikings with a thigh injury. Third-stringer Austin Davis took over as the Rams lost convincingly 34-6.

"Austin performed well," Jeff Fisher said. "For a rookie, he knew the offense like the back of his hand. He learned it in no time. He's like a sponge, which comes in handy during mop-up duty."

The Buccaneers fell 20-14 to the Panthers at Raymond James Stadium in Lovie Smith's debut. It will be a homecoming of sorts for Smith, who was defensive coordinator for the Rams from 2001-2003.

"At that time," Smith said, "the Rams offense was known as 'The Greatest Show On Earth.' We'll settle for our offense being simply 'The Greatest Show in Tampa.'"

Tampa wins, 19-16.

Seattle @ San Diego (+5½)

The Seahawks looked every bit the favorites to defend their Super Bowl title in a 36-16 dismantling of the Packers last Thursday. Marshawn Lynch plowed ahead for 110 yards and 2 scores, while the Legion of Boom limited Aaron Rodgers to 189 yards and 1 score.

"We stared down Rodgers," Richard Sherman said, "and he flinched. That's not lowering the Boom; it's glowering the Boom.

"Earl Thomas compared our defense to James Brown. We are indeed funky. But when it comes to passing PED tests, we're 'flunky.' But we feel good. I knew that we would."

The Chargers lost a heartbreaking 18-17 decision to the Cardinals in a defensive struggle last week. A loss to the Seahawks would put the Chargers in an 0-2 hole.

"We plan to go right at Richard Sherman," Philip Rivers said. "By right 'at Richard Sherman,' I mean '@RichardSherman,' meaning we plan to confuse him by overloading his Twitter account."

Seattle wins, 24-20.

Houston @ Oakland (+3)

The Raiders lost to the Jets 19-14 last week in the debut of rookie quarterback Derek Carr. Carr threw 2 touchdowns, but got no help from an anemic rushing attack that accounted for only 25 yards.

"Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for only 11 yards on 9 carries," Carr said. "Is that dash in his name a hyphen or a minus sign?"

The Texans used two big plays, one on offense and one on defense, to subdue Robert Griffin and the Redskins 17-6 in Bill O'Brien's debut as head coach. J.J. Watt dominated, with a sack, 2 tackles for losses, 1 pass defended, and 1 blocked kick.

"Watt proved that he's worth $100 million," O'Brien said. "He'll earn every penny. Some players sign huge contracts, cash in, and quit trying. Albert Haynesworth signed a $100 million contract with Washington, and look at him now. Daniel Snyder is still paying him. But Native Americans love it. It's one case in which the Redskin is robbing the white man."

Arian Foster rushes for 65 yards and scores on a short reception from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Watt "parks" the Carr twice and forces 1 fumble.

Houston wins, 22-13.

NY Jets @ Green Bay (-8½)

The Packers have had 10 days to contemplate last Thursday's 36-16 loss in Seattle last week, a game in which the Green Bay defense surrendered 207 yards rushing. The Jets will no doubt attack the middle of the Packer defense.

"Rush defense has been a problem here for years," Mike McCarthy said. "It's about as thin as the lamination of my play sheet. Opposing offenses take a look at our defense and say 'Cheese,' not because we're in Wisconsin, but because they've got reason to smile."

The Jets overpowered the visiting Raiders 19-14 last week, boosted by a defense that held the Raiders to 158 total yards.

"It wasn't pretty," Rex Ryan said, "but I liked it anyway. But enough about my wife's feet."

Green Bay wins, 31-16.

Kansas City @ Denver (-12½)

The Broncos managed just fine without Wes Welker, who was suspended four games for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. Peyton Manning tossed three first-half scoring passes to Julius Thomas, and the Broncos held off a late charge to beat the Colts 31-24.

"Julius is a lot like Welker's supplier," Manning said. "He's got 'speed.' Over the last two years, I've developed quite a dependency on him, and I'm not quite sure I can kick it.

"And speaking of 'kicking it,' Welker isn't the only player with a substance-abuse problem. Matt Prater was suspended for four games for alcohol abuse. That's like being sent down to the minors, or 'AA.'"

The Chiefs looked nothing like the team that won 11 games last year. Kansas City managed only 245 yards of total offense, and Jamaal Charles was rendered mostly ineffective in last week's 26-10 home loss to the Titans.

"Indeed," Andy Reid said. "We certainly didn't look like a team that won 11 games last year. We looked like a team in need of a history lesson. I could go back one year and tell my boys a story about how well they played last year. Or, I could kick it old school and reminisce about the Chiefs glory years. Of course, it would be in the form of a children's book, and it would be called 'Green Eggs and Stram.'

Denver wins, 30-20.

Chicago @ San Francisco (-6)

The 49ers took advantage of a depleted Dallas defense, bolting to a 28-3 lead in an eventual 28-17 win at AT&T Stadium. San Fran forced 4 turnovers and sacked Tony Romo 4 times.

"This calls for a party," Jim Harbaugh said. "Just not at Ray McDonald's house.

"Obviously, our ultimate goal is winning the Super Bowl. As you know, my brother John won a Super Bowl with the Ravens. Since then, though, things have gone downhill, one floor at a time."

The Bears were stunned 23-20 in overtime by the Bills at Soldier Field last week. The Bills surrendered 427 yards of total offense to the Bears, but won the turnover battle three-to-one.

"We have a lot of weapons on offense," Marc Trestman said. "Defensively, we have weapons as well. Unfortunately, they are weapons of mass implosion."

The 49ers christen Levi's Stadium with the blood of Jay Cutler, sacking him 3 times.

San Francisco wins, 34-22.

Philadelphia @ Indianapolis (-3)

After digging a 17-0 hole, the Eagles woke up in the second half, outscoring the Jaguars 34-0. Nick Foles bounced back from 3 turnovers in the first half to throw two TD passes in the second half.

"We just didn't execute our offense," Chip Kelly said. "Sometimes with the hurry-up, you've got to slow down.

"Foles will be fine. Why? Because Mark Sanchez is his backup. Nick may be a fumbler, but he's no butt fumbler."

As is their wont, the Colts fell behind early before a late comeback fell short in a 31-24 loss to the Broncos in Denver.

"That was the bad news," Andrew Luck said. "But there was more. Robert Mathis is out for the year after tearing his Achilles' heel in a workout. Robert was serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. This really puts a kink in Robert's plan, because he swore he wasn't going to take this suspension sitting down."

Indianapolis wins, 31-28.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:45 PM | Comments (0)

Reputable Damage

College football is about pageantry, including the traditions we hold on to well after graduation day from our alma maters. College football is about passion, which partially stems from the sold out five- and six-figure capacity stadiums that are on display each Autumn Saturday. College football is certainly about popularity, for all the reasons I described to this point.

More than anything, though, college football is about pride. Pride that comes from identifying with some aspect of a program, whether it be a player, an experience, or even a uniform color. Pride that comes from four years of walking the campus, tailgating, and attending the biggest weekly social event on campus. Pride that comes from debate on which team, division, or conference has bragging rights.

In the days of the old bowl system, conference reputation was basically nebulous. Each major bowl game had its own conference affiliation. If you don't win the league title, you didn't get to showcase your program on the most well-known stages (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Cotton). You could argue that the SEC, Pac-10, Big Eight, Southwest, or Big Ten offered the best talent and competition, but I don't think you could resolve it concretely.

The BCS era consolidated the championship process to two teams, which (in my mind) helped to legitimize the debate over conference superiority. It also introduced new talking points to the debate of which teams should play for a national title. Strength of schedule (including non-conference SOS), records against ranked teams, and margin of victory became ordinary variables in the equation of championship calculus.

Now the new playoff system is shining more light on the power of reputation, especially when it concerns the "Big Boy" conferences. The current way of things may not last long if the system expands, but, as is, there are four spots for five power conferences. That means some league won't be happy in this game of musical chairs. During the bulk of October and November, the conferences will beat up on each other. In light of that, it's up to the non-conference matchups, those salivating appetizers, to set up a reputation hierarchy. Essentially, these leagues have one month to establish, demonstrate, or reconfigure the truth in any preseason mindsets about which one is the toughest (or overrated).

A prime example of what we can expect in future seasons is the past two weekends. I live in Big Ten country, where the winters get bitter and the football royalty is basically set in stone. If you hold a residence northwest of the Ohio River and northeast of the Missouri River, you know Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Penn State, and Wisconsin. These are the six programs that, at one time or another in the BCS era, have led the way in national title contention.

The first list of playoff contenders did contain some Big Ten schools. The Buckeyes, Spartans, and Badgers all came into the season with aspirations of a conference title and one of the coveted four spots. But, just two weeks into the new season, those dreams have been significantly damaged.

Wisconsin took on the daunting task of playing LSU right out of the gate. Losing to the Bayou Bengals in Houston isn't bad. Losing to them close would probably be seen as a wash. However, losing to them when you're up 14 in the fourth quarter will sting all the more, knowing Bucky (and the conference) had a golden opportunity for a boost in reputation.

Michigan State traveled to Eugene last Saturday in the hyped game of the week. The Spartans may have faced some uptempo offenses over the past few seasons, but they weren't Oregon. The Ducks ran off to a quick lead. Sparty actually counterpunched to surge in front. But Phil Knight U pulled away in the end to deny another reputation boost to the kids from the Great Lakes.

Those losses were acceptable. Then came the downturn. If you flipped channels between conference foes on Saturday night, you could have switched to Michigan's last go-round with Notre Dame. You probably wouldn't have stayed long, seeing as how the Wolverines were getting their dinners handed to them by the Irish. A 31-0 shellacking gave the Maize and Blue a very bitter taste as they finished out the series with their longtime rival. It gave the Big Ten another black and blue eye to cover with a steak.

Once you got saw the "Beatdown in South Bend," you probably clicked over to watch Ohio State take on Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes had a 15-0 home record in their first two seasons under Urban Meyer. Despite missing QB Braxton Miller, OSU was facing a Hokie squad that had a lot of youth and some trouble pulling away from William & Mary in week one. The Buckeyes trailed by two touchdowns, but caught back up early in the fourth. They couldn't capitalize on the momentum, though, falling 35-21 to the Hokies. And the black eyes weren't over for the conference.

Purdue lost badly to Central Michigan. Northwestern fell against Northern Illinois to drop to 0-2. Iowa had to score two TD's in the last four minutes to beat Ball State. Nebraska needed a superhuman effort by Ameer Abdullah to avoid going to overtime with FCS opponent McNesse State.

In other words, the Big Ten had a bad weekend. And because of it, they find themselves at the back of the line in terms of reputation. Can the conference recover to place a rep in the bracket? Sure. But, in the current world of college football, winning begets reputation. Reputation begets respectability. Respectability begets more shots at a postseason berth. For the selection committee, right now, reputation is lacking all across the upper midwest.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 2:48 PM | Comments (0)

September 10, 2014

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 26

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski dominated at Richmond, leading 383 of 400 laps to win the Federated Auto Parts 400. With four wins, Keselowski starts as the top seed in the Chase For the Cup.

"Who was that 'on the fence' at Richmond?" Keselowski asked. "Was it Clint Bowyer? No. It was just a fan who obviously wasn't 'high' enough."

2. Jeff Gordon — Gordon took second at Richmond, unable to catch Brad Keselowski, who clearly had the best car in the field. Gordon's three wins on the season earned him the second seed in the Chase, where he'll start three points behind Keselowski.

"We were determined," Gordon said. "Not even Clint Bowyer could keep us out of the Chase. But Bowyer doesn't have to worry about 'intentional spins' now; Michael Waltrip will handle those on 'Dancing With the Stars.'"

3. Joey Logano — Logano finished sixth at Richmond as Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski captured the victory, giving Roger Penske his 400th racing win.

"Keselowski was just unbelievable," Logano said. "He led an amazing 383 of 400 laps. I'm surprised he wasn't wearing leather and chains, because it was a display of 'dominant fashion.'"

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 12th in the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Speedway. He will start third in the Chase, three points behind Brad Keselowski.

"Some crazy fan climbed the catch-fence late in the race," Earnhardt said. "I guess alcohol and boredom make a deadly combination."

5. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson posted his 16th top-10 finish of the year with an eighth at Richmond. He will start the Chase in second, along with Hendrick teammates Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Jeff Gordon, all with three wins on the season.

"I collapsed after the race due to severe dehydration," Johnson said. "But after some intravenous fluids, I feel great. I think this bodes well for my chances of winning my seventh Cup title. As they say, you can't get 'VII' without first getting 'IV.'"

6. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished fifth at Richmond, recording his eighth top-five result of the year. With two wins this season, he will start the Chase For the Cup six points behind Brad Keselowski.

"There we no squirrels on the track at Richmond," Harvick said. "If there were, they would have been after that nut on the fence."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth's night at Richmond ended early after he hit the wall on lap 120. He finished 41st, 70 laps down, and starts the Chase For the Cup 12 points out of first.

"It was a tough night for me," Kenseth said. "But my disappointment was tempered by the knowledge that Michael Waltrip was selected to appear on 'Dancing With the Stars.' I'm not surprised my Michael's selected — he's often been accused of being light on his feet."

8. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished 22nd at Richmond, four laps down. He'll start the Chase For the Cup with 2,006 points, 6 behind Brad Keselowski.

"Congratulations to Greg Biffle," Edwards said. "He clinched the 16th and final spot in the Chase field. Of course, he did it by finishing 19th, two laps down. He probably didn't see that coming; that's what happens when you 'back' your way in."

9. Ryan Newman — Newman easily drove his way into the Chase, finishing a solid ninth. He will start the Chase in 16th, 12 points behind Brad Keselowski.

"There's a lot of distance between me and the driver of the No. 2 Miller Lite car," Newman said. "Interestingly enough, that's the same thing I said when Rusty Wallace was my teammate."

10. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished 17th at Richmond, one lap down. He start the Chase Forthe Cup with 2,003 points, nine behind top seed Brad Keselowski.

"Hopefully," Kahne said, "I can carry some of the momentum from my win at Atlanta into the Chase. Thank goodness I got that win. I knew I need to carry my weight before I could carry momentum."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:20 AM | Comments (0)

September 9, 2014

2014 NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Props to FOX for showing overtime finishes without cutting to a commercial first. It's rare to see fan-first TV in the NFL game, and FOX deserves recognition for it.

* By the same token, shame on ESPN. Showing ads during :30 timeouts on Monday night was chintzy and rude. It dissipates drama and breaks up the game. NBC did the same thing in the Thursday night opener. Both networks should follow FOX's example.

* Some time in the very near future, defenses must figure out how to defend Percy Harvin.

* Special teams game ball of the week: Falcons kicker Matt Bryant, who hit a last-second 51-yarder to send the game into overtime, then a 52-yard field goal to win.

* The Browns just lost their 10th straight season opener, an NFL record.

* * *

You know about survivor pools, right? They're also referred to as elimination pools or, somewhat less tastefully, suicide pools. You pick one team every week that you believe will win. Straight up, not against the betting line. If your team wins, you survive to continue the game next week. But you can't pick the same team twice. Once you've chosen, say, the Seahawks, you can't use them again.

Last week, I advised readers to select the Eagles. They won; we're still going strong. In Week 2, I believe you have to use one of your powerhouses. A lot of people will choose Washington, at home against the lowly Jaguars, but I don't trust Washington and I'm not sure Jacksonville is as bad as most of us think. Right now you need a sure winner.

And the bad news is, there isn't one. I mean, any given Sunday and all that, but every game on the schedule in Week 2 presents real cause for concern. My three favorites are, in order, the 49ers, Packers, and Saints. Those are all good teams; I know you wanted to save them for later. Spend one of them now. Look, I'm letting you keep the Broncos and Seahawks. Don't sacrifice Week 2, planning for Week 15. We'll have more information later in the season, a better idea about which teams are for real. Don't get clever in Week 2, just make sure you survive.

The Niners open their new stadium against Chicago. The Bears underperformed in Week 1, and you worry they'll be hyped up to prove they're for real, plus it's always possible that Jay Cutler will play a whole game without doing anything stupid. The other worry would be rush defense; DeMarco Murray ran great against San Francisco, and Matt Forte is no slouch. But the 49ers looked great against Dallas, the Bears have a long trip for a night game, and I don't know how Chicago's defense is going to stop the Niner offense. Turnovers seem like their only real shot, and you can't bet on those.

The Packers are 8-point favorites at home against the Jets. Green Bay is a lot tougher than Oakland, and the Jets aren't the Seahawks, plus this game is at Lambeau Field rather than in Seattle or New Jersey. But do you really feel comfortable picking an 0-1 team, that didn't look particularly good in its first game, as a mortal lock to beat a 1-0 team?

The Saints are also pretty big favorites, about a touchdown. But New Orleans is not a real good road team, and the Browns showed guts on Sunday. I actually think the Saints are a better choice than the Packers, but I also would want to keep my Saints selection for a game in New Orleans. If you really insist on saving your big guns, consider the Ravens, at home on Thursday night against Pittsburgh. Since NFL Network began airing Thursday games, the home team is 39-24 on Thursday nights (.619). Baltimore, in the John Harbaugh era, is 39-10 at home (.796).

My official survivor pick for Week 2 is the San Francisco 49ers. Let's move on with power ratings. Brackets show preseason ranking.

1. Seattle Seahawks [1] — Russell Wilson appeared to lose some focus in the second half, and made a couple of bad decisions that could have backfired (but didn't). When the game was close, though, Wilson was extremely sharp. He's a top-five QB, and barring a career-altering injury, he's going to be a Hall of Famer.

2. Denver Broncos [2] — Like the Seahawks, they appeared to lose focus after building a 24-0 lead. Everyone's talking about Peyton Manning and Julius Thomas, and rightly so, but I'll point out that the Broncos defensed 13 passes on Sunday night, about 25% of Andrew Luck's attempts. When you tip that many passes, there's nothing "lucky" about two interceptions. The Bronco defensive backs also tackled like bosses this weekend. If the Colts game was any indication, this is one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

3. San Francisco 49ers [7] — The Cowboys committed four first-half turnovers, and San Francisco scored 21 points after only four offensive plays. The Niners overcame multiple ticky-tack penalties for an easy win. We all worried about how the defense would perform without NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith, and the answer so far is: very well. I've mentioned before that I believe Justin Smith is the critical player on that defense, and on Sunday, Smith had two sacks, bringing his career total to 84, a phenomenal number for a player who often lines up inside the tackle.

4. Cincinnati Bengals [6] — Broke a streak of four straight losses in Baltimore, and they don't go on the road again until October. They have two home games, then a bye, before their Week 5 matchup in New England. The Bengals need to play better in the red zone. They attempted six field goals in Week 1, and their only touchdown came on a 77-yard pass to A.J. Green.

5. Atlanta Falcons [11] — If I could choose any quarterback to run my two-minute drill, I'd pick Peyton Manning. If he was taken, I'd go with Matt Ryan. Since his first day in the NFL, Ryan's been remarkable in last-minute comebacks. Atlanta's matchup in Cincinnati is the gem of Week 2. I'm taking the Bengals, who went 8-1 at home last season, over the Falcons, who haven't been a great road team in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan Era.

6. New Orleans Saints [3] — Combined with the Falcons for 1,040 yards, 58 first downs, and 71 points. Obviously the offense is in form, and rookie receiver Brandin Cooks made a great debut (7 rec, 77 yds, TD). But the defense allowed Ryan a record day and couldn't hold the lead with 1:30 to play. That's not good enough for a team that fancies itself a Super Bowl contender.

7. Green Bay Packers [5] — The right side of their offensive line got torched on Thursday night, and it wasn't just backup tackle Derek Sherrod. Starter Bryan Bulaga sprained his MCL, but that's not a major injury. It's hard to evaluate the Packers based on a game at Seattle — that's the league's best defense and toughest road environment. For now, I still believe they're a top-10 team.

8. Detroit Lions [16] — Got their first win over a Manning since 1984, breaking an 0-6 winless streak against Peyton and Eli. Detroit doubled the Giants' yardage (417-197) and posted the best third down percentage of any team (10/15, 67%). Calvin Johnson is visibly the best receiver in football. He is literally amazing.

9. Miami Dolphins [14] — One of several games this weekend with wildly different first and second halves. The Dolphins went into the locker room down 20-10, then outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the second half. Game balls go to Knowshon Moreno and Cameron Wake. Moreno, dismissed as a product of the system in Denver, carried 24 times for 134 yards and a touchdown. Wake sacked Tom Brady twice, both leading to fumbles recovered by Miami.

10. New England Patriots [4] — I'm going to put it out there: this team never recovered from the loss of Aaron Hernandez. His salary is still on the books, plus his loss removed a weapon for Brady, and short-circuited New England's brilliant two-TE run game. Wes Welker was a great receiver in New England, but losing Hernandez hurt the pass game, the run game, and the salary cap. Welker only affected the pass.

11. Philadelphia Eagles [9] — Didn't panic when they fell behind 17-0; head coach Chip Kelly said after the game, "We weren't throwing chairs or anything during halftime." The Eagles knew they were the better team, and they showed it with a 34-0 second half. Darren Sproles began the comeback with a career-long 49-yard TD run in the third quarter. Yes, it really is his career-long. I checked. Sproles' career-long reception was 81 yards, his best punt return was 77, and he had a 103-yard kickoff return in 2008. This was also his most rush attempts in a game (11) since 2011.

12. San Diego Chargers [8] — Offense was too horizontal on Monday night. They didn't run well and didn't throw downfield. San Diego mostly played well on defense, though, and despite a couple personnel issues, they were pretty sharp on special teams. Darrell Stuckey and Seyi Ajirotutu are the best pair of gunners in the NFL. Rookie Jeremiah Attaochu played a sensational second half, both on defense and special teams.

13. Indianapolis Colts [10] — They missed Robert Mathis (suspended) a lot, and now he's out for the season with a torn Achilles. How about some credit to NBC announcers Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth for their in-game predictions? CC predicted a Julius Thomas TD seconds before it happened, and when Michaels mentioned T.Y. Hilton, he made a catch on the next play.

14. Houston Texans [18] — The good news is that Arian Foster looked great and J.J. Watt played like a hundred million bucks. The bad news is that number one overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney tore his meniscus and he'll miss at least a month. If I'm a Texans fan, I'm suddenly worried about Clowney being able to stay healthy.

15. New York Jets [21] — Out-gained the Raiders 402-158, and 20 first downs to 11, but won by a narrow 19-14 margin. Part of that was due to a pair of turnovers by Geno Smith, and Rex Ryan blamed penalties (11 for 105 yards), but red zone play (1/4) was an issue as well. Actually, on half their trips inside the 20, the Jets fell back out of the red zone, once on a penalty and once on a sack. Nick Folk kicked successful field goals on both drives.

16. Carolina Panthers [23] — Derek Anderson filled in ably for Cam Newton, with 231 net yards, 2 TDs, no turnovers, and a 108.7 passer rating. His favorite targets were rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin (92 yds, TD) and veteran tight end Greg Olsen (83 yds, TD). The defense played brilliantly for three quarters before allowing a pair of TDs in the fourth. Newton is expected to start in Week 2.

17. Baltimore Ravens [13] — Joe Flacco tied a career-high with 62 pass attempts. He completed 35 of them, with 1 TD and 1 INT. Subtract a late 80-yard bomb to Steve Smith, and it's a really unimpressive day. The other game when Flacco passed 62 times? Last year's season opener against the Broncos. This should not become a Week 1 trend.

I don't want to wade too deeply into this Ray Rice thing. I already wrote about it last month, and the whole thing is a little too tabloid for me. But I'll admit to some confusion. I don't understand the gulf between knowing that Rice beat up a woman, and seeing him punch her in the face. Did people not believe it happened? Is domestic violence bothersome only if we see it? How do you go from a two-game slap on the wrist to a firing, an indefinite suspension, and the probable end of a career?

Chris Berman opined, "He probably won't play football again, for good reason." But how was Rice's violence related to football? It's not. Washington safety Brandon Meriweather is suspended for the first two games of this season. Meriweather has knocked out at least a dozen players in his NFL career. Meriweather can repeatedly assault football players during the game, and he gets to keep playing football. Rice commits a horrible but comparable crime in a context completely unrelated to the game, and we say he's the one who can't be allowed to play? I'm just not sure the punishment fits the crime.

It seems like maybe the parties involved are compensating for their initial underreaction with an overreaction now. And I'm strongly of the belief that if you really care about issues like domestic violence, you don't need to show off how much you care about those issues. Adam Schefter's holier-than-thou routine on Monday night was sickening. When someone tries so hard to prove they "get" it, you can safely assume they don't get it. ESPN presented Schefter's scolding as "insider analysis," which shows pretty clearly why Jay Glazer is the only worthwhile NFL insider.

18. Arizona Cardinals [26] — Did it seem to anyone else like announcer Chris Berman was rooting for the Cardinals? He went gaga over Larry Foote, died a little with every pass that was not caught by Larry Fitzgerald, and openly cheered when Arizona scored the go-ahead TD. It was also annoying that Berman spent the whole first half telling viewers how exciting the game was. I liked Trent Dilfer, who brought unique analysis into the booth, what everyone wants from former QBs and what we never get from Phil Simms and Troy Aikman.

Foote really did play well, and Patrick Peterson largely shut down Keenan Allen. Carson Palmer played a very sharp game. If he continues at that level and Michael Floyd is for real, Arizona is going to be a lot better than I expected.

19. St. Louis Rams [12] — Led the NFL in penalties this week, 13 for 121 yards. But what's really depressing is Brian Schottenheimer's offense. He is a proven failure, and his offensive philosophy frankly makes no sense. Tavon Austin and Cordarrelle Patterson were both 2013 first-round draft picks, and they faced each other from opposite sidelines on Sunday. Patterson gained 127 yards and scored an electrifying TD. Austin had 39 yards and muffed two punts. The Rams are getting nothing out of their offensive talent.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers [24] — Almost blew a 27-3 halftime lead, but the offense looked great, especially Leveon Bell. Can we talk about the CBS pregame show? Former Steeler coach Bill Cowher conducted an interview with Ben Roethlisberger and asked if he felt underrated. After the segment, James Brown stated decisively, "He is underrated," and they showed a graphic of Ben with QBs like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning to prove it, noting how many Super Bowls each player's team had won. Cowher added, "This guy is no doubt a top-five quarterback in the National Football League." Bullshit.

Last year, Big Ben ranked 9th in passing yards, 7th in TDs, tied for 8th in TD/INT differential, and 9th in passer rating. The year before, 21st in yards, t-9th in TDs, 9th in rating. Actually, Roethlisberger has never ranked among the NFL's top five in passing yards, and he has ranked among the top five in TDs only once, in 2007. He's been among the top five in passer rating several times, most recently in 2010. More to the point, has anyone ever suggested that Ben is as good a passer as guys like Brady and Manning? No, because we all know he isn't.

Look, evaluating individual players by team accomplishments is idiotic. But even if you want to, Roethlisberger did not play well in the Steelers' Super Bowl wins. Those teams had the best defense in the NFL, and Ben only made two tackles in those seasons (though one of them, against Nick Harper in the playoffs, saved Pittsburgh's season). He played well, but he wasn't the reason they won. No one really believes Ben Roethlisberger is one of the five best QBs in the NFL, or anyway no one who knows football does. He's good, not great. Lying to viewers like that is just unforgivable, I think. It's not just incorrect, it's unethical. It's propaganda. The people at CBS should be ashamed of themselves.

21. Chicago Bears [15] — Alshon Jeffery's hamstring injury does not sound serious, but the Bears have plenty of other problems to worry about. There are offensive line injuries that might be more significant, and Jay Cutler played unevenly. Most notably, the defense played badly. Buffalo rushed for 193 yards, and E.J. Manuel recorded a 91.7 passer rating. Jared Allen had one tackle and no sacks. Lance Briggs had two tackles and an assist. Chris Conte got stiff-armed into a living death. Maybe the Bears underestimated the Bills, and they'll bounce back in Week 2, but this was a poor start to the season.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [17] — Another team with a weird first/second half divide. In the first half, the Bucs got shut out, 10-0, but it was even more lop-sided than the score. They were out-gained 205-84 and 13 first downs to 2. The Panthers had possession for 22:45 of the 30-minute half, more than a 3-to-1 advantage. Josh McCown's passer rating (12.5) was 100 points below Derek Anderson's (111.7). Logan Mankins left the game early and Doug Martin was in and out.

They rebounded in the second half, overcoming a pair of turnovers for a 14-10 advantage that still fell six points short. They host another disappointing team, the St. Louis Rams, in Week 2, followed by three straight road games.

23. Buffalo Bills [29] — The Bills faced the Bears in Chicago five times between 1970 and 2013, and lost all five, by a combined score of 135-26. Sunday marked the team's first-ever triumph in the Windy City. Fred Jackson, who set up the winning field goal, is the oldest running back in the NFL. I understand he went to a D-III school, but how did this guy not get an opportunity earlier in his career? If he'd gotten to play right away, or ever been a full-time starter, Jackson would probably rank as one of the top 100 RBs in history. He still might. Purely on stats, I have him in the top 150, and the stats don't do him justice.

24. Minnesota Vikings [30] — Dominant in a 34-6 win, but safety Harrison Smith had an especially big Week 1, including a sack for 9 yards and an 81-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Vikings play a nasty schedule that over the next four weeks pits them against the Patriots, Saints, Falcons, and Packers.

25. Tennessee Titans [27] — Highest time of possession in Week 1, 37:44. That includes a 21:55 - 8:05 edge in the second half, about 2½ times as much as the Chiefs. The Titans committed 12 penalties for 110 yards. That's something to clean up.

26. Washington [19] — "It's sort of hard to understand what's going on with this Washington offense." I seldom agree with Thom Brennaman, but how can you argue on this one? It's difficult to conceive of a coaching strategy more misguided than turning Robert Griffin III into a conventional pocket passer. As a rookie, he was compared to Barry Sanders. Griffin's running is what makes him special. In the first half against Houston, RG3 went 15-of-17 for 74 yards and 4 first downs, with two sacks for 20 yards and a scramble for 1. That's 20 plays, 55 yards — under 3 yards per play. And how do you complete 15 passes for only 4 first downs? Alfred Morris had a better average on rushes than Griffin did on completions.

The whole idea of this offense is wrong. I didn't like the hire of Jay Gruden as the new head coach, but I wanted to give him a chance. He's off to a very bad start. This offense is loaded with weapons, it should tear the league apart. Washington scored 6 points in Week 1, tied for the fewest of any team. I always advocate patience with new coaches, and I am emphatically not calling for Gruden to be fired, but if management doesn't already regret their choice of a new HC, there's something wrong with them.

27. Dallas Cowboys [20] — The defense was every bit as bad as we expected, and Tony Romo played one of the worst games of his career. But perhaps the most shocking sight was the stadium full of red jerseys. Yahoo's Dan Wetzel wrote a biting column about it, focused on owner Jerry Jones, but most of us saw the game anyway. From the opening kickoff, you could hear the 49er fans — they were loud. It didn't sound like a home game for the Cowboys.

28. Kansas City Chiefs [22] — Pro Bowl linebacker Derrick Johnson ruptured his Achilles and is out for the season. Quarterback Alex Smith had twice as many rushing yards (36), in their loss to Tennessee, as all-pro running back Jamaal Charles (19), who took only seven handoffs all game. Smith has already thrown more interceptions (3) than he did in the first month of last season. He also took four sacks, for 24 yards. The Chiefs went 1/12 on third downs. Run the ball, Andy Reid.

29. Oakland Raiders [25] — Worst offense performance of Week 1. Oakland is last in the NFL in yardage by almost 100. Twenty-four teams gained twice as many yards this week. The Raiders ran the fewest plays (49) for the fewest yards (158) and the fewest first downs (11). Oakland punted nine times on Sunday, including six three-and-outs. The worst culprit was a run game that produced 24 yards on 14 carries. I hope you didn't draft Maurice Jones-Drew in fantasy.

30. Cleveland Browns [31] — Okay, let's tally up these weird first halves. The Eagles fell behind 17-0 and won 34-17. The Dolphins trailed 20-10 and won 33-20. The Buccaneers were down 10-0 and closed it to 20-14. The Browns went into the locker room behind 27-3 and nearly won, with a 30-27 final. In the first half, those teams were outscored by a combined 74-13. In the second half, the same teams outscored their opponents 105-13. Tight end Jordan Cameron aggravated his shoulder injury and missed most of that glorious second half. His status going forward is unclear.

31. New York Giants [28] — The offense obviously was not in sync on Monday night. I'll be curious to see if things look better the next two weeks, both at home. We heard repeatedly about Eli Manning's difficulty with the team's new hand signals, so perhaps he'll play better in an environment with easier communication.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — Both of their touchdowns were set up by turnovers. The offense was ineffective, going 2/14 on third downs. Toby Gerhart, Denard Robinson, and Jordan Todman combined for 24 rush attempts and 56 yards, a 2.3 average.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:17 PM | Comments (0)

September 8, 2014

Farewell to Washington: Temporarily?

A week ago, we were pondering whether Rangers manager Ron Washington hadn't stepped a little too far into unreality when he said publicly he needed elbow-addled Yu Darvish back on the mound post haste, the day before if possible, the better to keep Darvish from quitting on his teammates. Washington's words, not mine. A week later, Washington himself has quit.

The universal reaction seems somewhere between shock and sorrow. It was bad enough that Washington had sounded as though he was willing to sacrifice a pitcher's career to preserve his team's unity, which is exactly how he sounded when he said of Darvish's elbow issue, "He's got inflammation? I've got inflammation."

Washington backpedaled fast enough when general manager Jon Daniels stood by Darvish, but his reputation as a players' manager took a body blow with the apology and the don't-quit-on-his-teammates addendum. Days later, the Rangers, whose season was blown up early and often by a rash of injuries that probably drove Washington quietly mad, became the first team in baseball to be eliminated mathematically from a pennant race they probably knew was over for them as far back as the end of April. And they shut Darvish down for the season after Washington stepped aside.

Worse, though, is the thought that something outside the game and inside his family is now taking Washington away from it. Nobody seems to know what the issue is and Washington isn't saying it publicly just yet. But everyone wishes him well and hopes he can return to baseball as soon as possible. Whether that includes returning to the Rangers' or someone else's dugout might be another matter entirely.

Washington is both the winningest manager in the history of a franchise born in Washington as the Senators II and the man who led the Rangers to back-to-back World Series and came up short in each despite being favorites to win either or both. His teams have gone 18-16 in postseason play. Striking enough about teams good enough to win either or even both World Series to which they went. Worse is that he had the Rangers, one way or the other, to within a strike of winning the 2011 Series twice, in the ninth and 10th innings of Game 6, and those Rangers couldn't pull the trigger.

To what extent was that Washington's fault? Perhaps not as much as you might think if you remember that Series. But in a 2011 Series in which both managers managed to outsmart themselves at one or another point, Washington ended up being on the short end fatally.

He lost faith enough in his bullpen that he sent Derek Holland, who'd pitched a masterpiece against the Cardinals in Game 4 ("Right before the game, he gave me a nice smack in the face," Holland would remember), out of the pen in Game 6, leaving him unavailable for a potential Game 7. He also failed to take advantage of the rain delay that pushed Game Six back and start C.J. Wilson in Game Seven on three days' rest, opting instead for a Matt Harrison who couldn't get out of the fourth inning in Game 3

He went to the dubious no-doubles defense at the worst possible time twice in Game 6, with two out in the bottom of the ninth and the 10th and the Rangers a strike away from champagne and rings in each. First, David Freese burned him with a two-run, stand-up, tying triple beyond right fielder Nelson Cru in the ninth. Then, after walking Albert Pujols to load the bases in the tenth, Lance Berkman burned him with a game-tying quail to short center field. Setting it up for Freese to end it with a first-pitch lead-off bomb in the 11th.

Game 6 lost, Game 7 to be lost behind a shaky Harrison while the Rangers failed to take advantage of a Chris Carpenter who was ailing early, but who was left just enough room to regroup and have his way with the Rangers after holding things to a two-all tie in the first two innings. By stubbornly staying with his set rotation and essentially letting his shaky Series bullpen call the dance, Washington managed himself out of a World Series he was twice a strike from winning.

Washington's sins could be forgiven even allowing that he was out-managed in that World Series by a Tony La Russa who wasn't necessarily managing his best, either. Washington's best side was keeping his clubhouse and dugout evenly keeled in the best and worst days. His worst side was not seeing the big picture for the immediate view, and it cost his teams championships they could have secured.

He clung to Michael Young despite Young falling into a decline phase. He had too much of a passion for small ball despite managing a team whose home ballpark is manna for hitters of all sizes. Sure, Washington's Ranger could drive the opposition to the rye bottle with their relentless nibbling and pecking, but a little firepower couldn't have hurt, either. (Well, it could, if you allow the Rangers dealing big for Prince Fielder only to see the big man's neck take him out for the season too early this year.)

It was in last year's play-in game for the second wild card spot that the small-ball-happy manager got hoist by his own petard. Washington could only watch in horror as two base-runners got picked off early, one Ranger bunted for a hit and took one on his fingers before a line out, and another — his best 2013 second-half hitter, Elvis Andrus — showed bunt in the eighth with two out, a man on second, the Rangers in the hole 4-2, and the number three and four hitters behind him.

Even against David Price, en route a complete-game seven-hitter, Andrus reflected the worst side of his manager. He thought he saw the bigger picture, getting on base and setting up a big inning, but he forgot that Price was pretty sharp at spoiling the bunt. Price himself grabbed the little twister and threw Andrus out at first.

"[Those] aren't all Ron Washington decisions, but they're entirely the product of Ron Washington's philosophy, which appears to be ‘Do What You Fee'," wrote Deadspin‘s Barry Petchesky. "He makes decisions by the gut rather than by the book — perhaps a necessary evil this year, as the Rangers bats went quiet and runs had to be squeezed out where they could be found. But unconventional aggressiveness and playing hunches on the lineup card tend to eventually backfire."

Still, the Rangers appreciated that a Washington clubhouse was equilibrium personified for the most part. And he never let anyone mistake equilibrium or affability for weakness. He demanded accountability and brooked few excuses; he'd have his players' backs until or unless their backs were getting their teammates' backs broken.

Take Vicente Padilla. He left enough Rangers prone to retaliation after one of his big-deal/it's-the-game knockdown pitches and, even after being warned by his own superiors to knock it off or be knocked out of town, was caught laughing in the dugout after Young took yet another one for one of his dusters. Washington didn't exactly try to argue when Padilla was run out of town at last.

But this was the same manager who would sit quietly with Josh Hamilton to read from the Bible before a game to keep the talented outfielder, recovering from substance abuse, prepared. The same manager whom Holland, freshly returned from microfracture surgery, has considered to be like a father to him. The manager who knew, and often said, that whichever player needed a hug or a kick in the pants would get one knowing it came from a man who cared about each one.

So Washington isn't a tactical or strategic game genius? How many managers genuinely are? But he's a man who actually can turn and keep a team into a family. How many managers genuinely can? By doing that he took a team which was often enough little more than a glorified softball team and turned them into annual contenders. How many managers genuinely can?

Nobody's blaming Washington for this year's lost season. Frank Jobe, James Andrews, and Gregory House themselves couldn't have put this year's Humpty Dumpty back together again. So why on earth did Washington's formal resignation statement include, "I deeply regret that I've let down the Rangers organization and our great fans"? The winningest manager in franchise history hasn't really let anyone down.

The Rangers say they've known for weeks that Washington was dealing with a serious issue off the field. Everyone in baseball is praying that it's resolved well enough to allow him to return soon. If not to the Rangers, then perhaps to another team who could do with being turned from doormat to competitor. A team playing in a neutral or pitcher's park would be just about right, then. By those criteria, there's a team in Queens, New York who might be on Washington's caller ID soon enough.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:42 PM | Comments (0)

Changing of the Guard in Men's Tennis?

They say that skin renews itself approximately every 28 days. In terms of tennis chronology, if one considers the dominance of a few elite players as a cycle, considering the pattern since the turn of the century, 28-day cycle of skin renewal in men's tennis terms translates to ... well, we do not know yet.

The fact that there is nobody called Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer in the finals of a Slam tournament for the first time since the 2005 Australian Open does not necessarily point to the end of an era. In fact, one could argue that even in a tournament in which Nadal did not show up due to an injury, Djokovic looked like he has yet to recover from a dismal hard court summer, Federer played his worst tennis of the 2014 campaign, and Andy Murray ran into one of the other three in the quarterfinals, two of the big four names were still in the semifinals.

That being said, the trend has arrived. The ATP's composition of top players has begun its transformation, and 2014 has undeniably confirmed that. Yes, the skin is changing! When Stan Wawrinka won the Australian Open, most believed it was an anomaly. By the time Novak Djokovic won the two Masters Series tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami, people believed so much in the flash-in-the-pan nature of Wawrinka's accomplishment that they have all but overlooked Kei Nishikori outplaying an in-form Federer in Miami.

But the players did apparently take notice. Milos Raonic at Wimbledon and Marin Cilic few days ago have both pointed to Wawrinka's victory as the day where they came to the realization that the "others" had a chance. They explicitly credited the Swiss for opening the door for them, at least mentally.

When the clay-court season arrived, the so-called anomaly Wawrinka showed that he is not an anomaly, as he took the clay-court specialist and long-time top-six player David Ferrer out in Monte Carlo, and then won the title against his good friend Federer in the finals. One week later, tennis fans were stunned for an hour and a half when they watched Nishikori "school" (yes, that is the only term that comes to mind if you watched that segment) Nadal on clay in Madrid until a 6-2, 4-2 lead, only to see his hopes of winning the title slip away due to an injury that forced him to withdraw from the match 0-3 down in the third after losing a painful seven games in a row.

After Roland Garros showed that the Big Four were still able to dominate, Wimbledon confirmed the coming-of-age of few new faces. Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov who have been knocking on the door of the top 10 reached the semifinals, only to be reminded by Federer and Djokovic that they are not quite there, but very close. Wawrinka was anything but missing in action as some predicted, reaching the quarterfinals, only to lose to Federer in a tough four-setter.

As to Nadal, he was knocked out early in the second week by another flashy newcomer, the Australian Nick Kyrgios. Now, the change of skin was becoming a reality. Wawrinka, Raonic, Dimitrov, Nishikori (the latter's injury slowed his year down, but only temporarily) were here to stay. The change of skin was no longer an anomaly. Ernests Gulbis was one of those. An anomaly, an exception, highly unlikely to appear again in a semifinal or a final, even if the Big Four put down their rackets today and never picked them up again. He has been around, operating below his potential for many years. Gulbis was one single anomaly; the rest represented the renewal of the faces of the ATP.

This U.S. Open confirmed the trend, stamped it, officialized it. Federer and Djokovic looked under-matched against two of the new faces, Nishikori and the big-serving Cilic. On the one hand, the next couple of years will make us appreciate how important Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic are to men's tennis and to its explosion as a popular sport around the world over the last decade. The ATP should forever be thankful to these great champions who will deservedly take their places in the historiography of the sport as the main representatives of second golden age of tennis, following the first during the late '70s and the early 80s.

I doubt we will ever see such a dominant group of individuals whose equivalent of "28-day skin-renewal" in men's tennis has yet to be determined, even after a decade. Yet, the end-of-the-year ATP Championships, as well as the majors next year, will become bigger sources of anticipation as the fascinated tennis fan will now look forward to discussing who will get to the semis, which player will enter top five, or who will win their first major title, rather than guessing who out of the Big Four will win the next major title. This is not to say that one option is less entertaining than the other. It's just that the latter question has thrilled us for so long that I now predict tennis fans will embrace with open arms the emergence of the former types of questions.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 12:25 PM | Comments (0)

September 5, 2014

A Game of Numbers

Baseball is dying. Haven't you heard?

At least that's the popular narrative. Our nation's past time is going the way of boxing and horse racing, watching its customer base age into the afterlife, a place beyond Nielsen boxes and season tickets.

And yet, while baseball hemorrhages in traditional market indicators, it sits on the sharpest part of the bleeding edge in two distinctly modern measures: revenue and operational analysis. MLB headquarters might as well be on Wall Street.

Local television rights fees for baseball are exploding, and it doesn't take an i7 processor to count the billions teams are pocketing. Whether through team-owned networks or regional channels of major networks, baseball teams negotiate staggering contracts of their own for a simple reason: they can fill a lot of airtime.

As cable and satellite packages number into the thousands of channels and audiences continue to splinter, exclusive broadcast rights to a local team provide 162 fourish-hour blocks of (DVR-proof) live content that can be replayed in off hours in addition to studio shows, weekly magazine shows, and other valuable content. Marketing may become more sophisticated, but content will always be king.

Furthermore, baseball leads the sports universe in the progress and impact of its statistical analysis. Heck, it got Brad Pitt an Emmy nomination.

Because the sport's action is uniquely individual (pitcher-hitter-fielder), it is best suited to marginal value analysis of any major sport. Advances in technology allow teams to analyze how players move in the field and how pitches move through the strike zone. Almost everything a human does on a major league baseball field ends up in a spreadsheet.

As a result, nobody is surprised today when an MBA-wielding 30-something ascends to the pine tar and tobacco-covered throne atop one of MLB's organizations. Owners, many of whom got rich riding the waves generated by Quants, willingly turn over their operations to general managers who rely more on the skills they built in the classroom than the weight room.

Clearly, the baseball industry is getting smarter and richer. So why do we maintain its illness?

Baseball's prognosis is terminal, but it should carry that death-sentence for many more rewarding years. MLB fans have easily the highest median age of the four major sports at older than 55. On its face, this sounds terrible. As the population continues to skew older, so will MLB's fan base.

But how big of a problem is this really? Yes, advertisers yearn for young male audiences, a resource baseball is severely limited in. But if that were such an issue, the regional cable networks would be far less generous at the negotiating table. If you can reach audiences 162 nights a year, who cares if those eyeballs have thick lenses in front of them?

Instead of thinking of baseball as an old and ailing business, what if we compared it to a post-industrial economy. We've already established the increase in knowledge work. At some point countries like many in Western Europe reach a standard of living and education where population growth stagnates. Could this be where baseball is?

To further the analogy, consider NFL football. Unlike MLB, the NFL is a violent growth economy going through an industrial boom. While football analytics have improved greatly, they are too context-driven to compare in sophistication with their baseball cousins. And unlike baseball, which has a stable if unspectacular market position, the NFL will be defending its booming perch from the barbarians of player safety issues and unwise franchise and schedule growth in the coming decade. To a significantly greater degree than baseball, we should have very little confidence in predicting what the NFL of 2024 will look like.

(You may notice I haven't mentioned performance enhancing drugs. Sure, I've seen the survey data and heard anecdotes from dozens of people who swear they were baseball fans until Barry Bonds/Alex Rodriguez/Ryan Braun ruined it for them. I'm usually skeptical of these claims because, a) It's just about impossible to prove a person's fandom before or after some fixed point, and b) holding this opinion gives a nice kickback of moral superiority. For me, PEDs are sports' greatest red herring.)

So where does a once-proud sport go from here? Well, first it needs to decide whether it needs to "go" anywhere.

Sports in the era of social media is an incredibly complicated business. Fans demand increasingly augmented experiences beyond sitting in a bleacher seat with a hot dog and a couple of beers. While baseball certainly hasn't solved this puzzle, it's difficult to say any of its peers have passed with flying colors.

Television ratings are down, especially for FOX's playoff coverage, but that's true of the increasingly fragmented television landscape across the board. Those shrinking audiences have much more to do with macro trends than any baseball death spiral.

Instead, baseball will hang on for a long time with decreasing viewership, much like a star venting its plasma over millennia. It simply provides too much content that, for at least the near future, is too valuable to significant parts of the television universe for the sport to implode violently in a supernova. Like a reliable innings-eating, 4.00 ERA veteran starter, there is something to be said for baseball's consistency in filling the doggiest days of summer with compelling competition.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 12:11 PM | Comments (0)

September 4, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 1

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Green Bay @ Seattle (-5½)

The Seahawks begin defense of their world championship against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, who are anxious to make a statement by upsetting the defending Super Bowl champions.

"I have a lot in common with Richard Sherman," Rodgers said. "We both had a brief fling with Erin Andrews. However, when she asked me, 'Who's talking about you?' I didn't say 'Michael Crabtree.' I said, 'Me,' because I'm always talking about myself. At least that's what Greg Jennings says.

"But let's not forget about the '12th Man.' No, that's not Erin's new boyfriend. It's that rowdy Seattle crowd in Seattle. I hear they're so loud, they cause earthquakes. Usually, when you talk about the 'shakes' in Seattle, it's what happens when their secondary comes down off PEDs."

The Seahawks have their minds set on nothing less than repeating as world champions.

"Our practices are so intense," Pete Carroll said, "we get fined for it. The league docked us $300,000 for violating the NFL's no-contact rules for off-season practices. That stings. Believe me, if I'm going to give away that kind of scratch, I'd much rather it go to Reggie Bush's parents instead of the NFL."

If the Seattle defense is known as the "Legion Of Boom," then Green Bay's defensive unit, which ranked 25th last year, is known as the "Legion of Room," because there's always space. The Seahawks find themselves in an early hole, but their cornerstones, defense and a brutal rushing attack, wear down the Packers.

Marshawn Lynch bounces back from a lackadaisical first half, emerging from the locker room with a new attitude, as well as a new pair of overpriced headphones, and proceeds into "Beats" mode.

Lynch's two short TD runs powers Seattle to a 27-23 win.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (+3)

The Saints locked up Jimmy Graham with a new four-year, $40 million contract, $21 million of which is guaranteed. No one is happier than Drew Brees, who knows Graham is vital for the Saints NFC North and Super Bowl hopes.

"Is Jimmy a tight end or a wide receiver?" Drew Brees said. "Well, he's hard to categorize. He's a black man with red hair, for Christ's sake — I don't know what he is. Let's just call him a 'Taint,' because he 'taint' a tight end, and he 'taint' a wide receiver.

"But he's an out-of-this-world player. I don't know if that urban dictionary definition is accurate. They say gingers have no souls; this one's got no conscious."

The Falcons starred in HBO's "Hard Knocks" documentary, and, as one would expect, viewers were treated with more utterances of the "F" word than at any other time on the show. Mike Smith and the team are determined to bounce back from last season's 4-12 campaign.

"My coaching staff cursed up a storm that would put Hurricane Katrina to shame," Mike Smith said. "If you thing they have filthy mouths, you should have heard our fans last year.

"Look, we're just two years removed from playing in the NFC Championship. And I'm possibly one year removed from being removed. The key to our season is health. It remains to be seen who gets 'the boot' first, me or Julio Jones."

Saints win, 31-27.

Minnesota @ St. Louis (-4)

The Rams 2014 outlook was sent into disarray in late August, when Sam Bradford was lost for the season with a torn ACL suffered in the team's third preseason game. It was the same left knee that Bradford injured last year, ending his season after seven games. This all puts the pressure on the emerging Rams defense. Leading that defense is former Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who took the Rams DC position in February.

"Our defense is poised to become the NFL's best," Jeff Fisher said. "Williams brings a certain attitude, one that, ironically, money can't buy. Nobody coordinates a defense, or an illegal pay-for-injury pool, like Williams. That huge monument outside The Edwards Jones Dome: it's been renamed the 'Bounty Gate-way Arch.

"And remember, it's 'Gregg' with two 'G's,' which is also the amount payable to the player who KO's Matt Cassel."

Changes abound in Minnesota, where Mike Zimmer is the new head coach and Norv Turner is the offensive coordinator. Zimmer's defensive mindset will no doubt improve a unit that ranked 31st in defense last year, while Turner's influence could make wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson a superstar.

"Cordarrelle could be the second coming of Randy Moss," Zimmer said. "We just need to get Cordarelle his touches. Let's just hope those 'touches' don't involve officials, squirt bottles, parking lot attendants, girlfriends, or his own pants."

Greg Zuerlein kicks a 49-yard field goal as time expires, giving St. Louis a 27-24 win, and the Rams wildly celebrate with joyous and merry jubilance, showing no regard to their surroundings, a celebration later referred to by ESPN reporter Josina Anderson as "openly gay."

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-6½)

Johnny Manziell has ushered in a level of excitement not seen for a Cleveland non-starter since Hot Rod Williams won the NBA's Sixth Man Award for the Cavaliers. But Johnny Football doesn't get paid to shoot hoops; he does, however, pay to shoot craps.

"Look," Mike Petine said. "Brian Hoyer is the starter. Right now, the shifty Manziel is nothing more than the backup, or a much cooler and hipper version of Fran Tankenton.

"Anyway, we'll have to move on without Josh Gordon, who was suspended for the entire season. With or without Gordon, our wide receiver corps needs help. Whether that help comes in the form of a free agent or a drug counselor, it will be 'professional.'"

The Steelers are looking for a good start to the season, especially in the wake of last season's 0-4 start, which essentially wrecked their playoff chances. Ben Roethlisberger was superb through the air last year; Mike Tomlin knows the season's key is a more effective rushing attack.

"Our season went up in smoke early last year," Mike Tomlin said. "And speaking of 'up in smoke,' Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrett Blount were busted for marijuana possession in a traffic stop in August. I guess carries aren't the only thing they're sharing.

"But it's not all bad news for those two. They've negotiated a cut of the 'Pittsburgh Stoners' clothing line started by an enterprising young Carnegie Mellon University freshman. Trust me, his 'Le'Cheech and LeChong' t-shirts are going to explode. That could possibly lead to more merchandising deals, such as an offshoot of 'Fathead' wall stickers, called 'Fat Ones.'"

Bell and Blount show up late for the game, oddly enough, in Josh Gordon's car, expecting a 4:20 kickoff instead of the scheduled 1:20 start. Tomlin benches the duo for the first possession, and Bell and Blount high five on the bench, anxious to get their hands on the next "possession."

The Steelers beat the offensively-challenged Browns, 26-16.

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia (-10½)

The Eagles jettisoned their troubled wide receiver; the Jaguars still have theirs. DeSean Jackson is a Redskin; Justin Blackmon is still a Jaguar.

"Hey," Chip Kelly said, "what did DeSean Jackson say as he was leaving Philly? 'Gangway!'

"But seriously, I don't really know if DeSean had any gang affiliations. I do know he was a frequent visitor to the website 'World Star Hip-Hop.' From what I hear, that pretty much means you're in a gang, right?"

Gus Bradley begins his second year as head coach in Jacksonville, intent on improvement after last year's 4-12 mark.

"I don't know if Blackmon has any gang affiliation," Bradley said. "But if he does, so what. What's the difference in a gang and an NFL team? For one thing, the NFL team has more guns.

"Instead, our offense will revolve around Toby Gerhardt. Of course, he's no Blackmon; he's a white man."

Nick Foles throws for 269 yards and 2 scores, and the Philly defense forces 3 turnovers.

Eagles win, 29-13.

Oakland @ NY Jets (-5)

The Raiders were counting on Matt Schaub to steady the quarterback position, which has been a weakness in Oakland longer than fans care to remember. Schaub was acquired in a trade with the Texans in March. The trade was first announced by Mission Control when they said, "Oakland, you have Houston's problem."

"We got Schaub for virtually nothing," Dennis Allen said. "And he's worth it. But alas, he's not even good enough to start. Derek Carr will start instead. We're hoping Derek can stabilize, if not 'Stabler-ize,' the position. Of course, he's no Ken Stabler, but we'll settle for a breath of fresh air at the position, as opposed to the breath of whiskey."

For the Jets, success rides on the broad shoulders of second-year quarterback Geno Smith, who showed flashes of brilliance last year as the Jets finished 8-8.

"Smith is our quarterback," Ryan said. "Sure, he doesn't have the most accurate arm, but that's the least of his problems — Michael Vick is his mentor. But I think we all trust Michael's judgment where Geno is concerned. Wisely, he'll keep him on a short leash.

"We acquired a new target for Geno in Eric Decker. Peyton Manning made Decker famous; we made him rich. Geno will make him homesick."

With the Jets holding a 31-13 lead with 1:43 remaining in the fourth quarter, Oakland television affiliates opt to preempt the conclusion of the game, instead airing Heidi, an animated documentary on the life of Hollywood madam Heidi Fleiss. Viewers in and around Oakland applaud the decision, as does Charlie Sheen.

Jets win, 24-13.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (even)

The Ravens host the Bengals in a contest that will give the winner an important step towards AFC North superiority. The Ravens, Super Bowl champs in 2012, failed to make the playoffs last season, sliding to an 8-8 record.

"We're looking to get off on the right foot," John Harbaugh said. "We'd also like to get off the right hand. Ray Rice's right hand, that is. That's the one he used to knock out his fiancée. Ray got into a fight with his girlfriend in an elevator, then he married her. That's called getting 'engaged.' Suffice it to say she was 'floored' by the proposal.

"But while Ray serves his meager two-game suspension, we're expecting Joe Flacco to carry the team. Don't worry; Joe has a strong back capable of doing just that. If that fails, there's always his wallet — you could easily fit a team in there."

The Bengals handed Andy Dalton a six year contract extension worth $115 million in July. In return, they expect their franchise player to produce in the post season. Dalton is 0-3 in the playoffs.

"We threw a lot of money at Andy," Marvin Lewis said. "And we're expecting him to prove that he's worth it. Otherwise, the only thing he may earn is the nickname 'Red Cent.'

"There's no reason we shouldn't win in the playoffs. If we don't, Dalton won't be the scapegoat; it will be me. And it won't be a red head I'll be concerned about, it will be a green bottom, because my ass will be grass."

Baltimore wins, 23-19.

Buffalo @ Chicago (-5)

The Bills traded up in April's draft to acquire Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who's expected to be the Bills big play receiver for years to come. Watkins, however, had an uneventful pre-season, slowed by a rib injury that limited his effectiveness.

"This city of Buffalo needs a hero," Doug Marrone said. "Hopefully, Sammy can be that hero. He's got a lot of hurdles to clear to achieve that status. Let's just hope a chair in the Hertz rental car agency isn't one of them."

Chicago had the second-highest offense in the league last year, led by Jay Cutler and wideouts Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Offense is again expected to carry the Bears, who are optimistic that their defense can carry its weight.

"Buddy Ryan made the '46 D' famous in Chicago," Marc Trestman said. "Last year, our defense was known as the '4 and 6 D,' because they often played like they were a man short.

"Instead, you can still call our offense the 'Monsters of the Midway.' I think everyone in the league knows our offense is formidable. But let me emphasize it just for effect: the Bears are who you thought they were."

Marshall shows up for the game in bright red cleats and a straightjacket to raise attention for "Metal Health Awareness," which celebrates the 31st anniversary of the release of the influential Quiet Riot album.

Marshall has 8 catches for 114 yards, and the Bears roll, 30-20.

Washington @ Houston (-2½)

With the first pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the Texans signed Jadeveon Clowney, who will join J.J. Watt on the defensive line, giving Houston arguably the most formidable defensive rushing duo in the league.

"With Jadeveon joining me," Watt said, "there's three 'J's' on our defensive line. That's sure to attract the attention of the NFL's drug enforcers, as well as all the knuckleheads in this league who like their smokes but are too cheap to pay the extra dime on top of the line drug masking agents."

Washington's 4-12 record last year led to the firing of Mike Shanahan. Jay Gruden was hired in January, tasked with turning around the team. Gruden aims to get Robert Griffin III back to the form he showed as a dynamic rookie.

"Who do I think will win the NFC East this year?" Gruden said. "Can you say 'Redskins?' I mean, can you?"

Clowney and Watts combine for three sacks of Robert Griffin, and Watt introduces his brand new sack dance, in which he goes into a convulsive laughing fit, and thus unveals the "Watt's Riot."

Houston wins 24-17.

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-3½)

The Titans will be a vastly different team in 2014. Gone is Mike Munchak; in is Ken Whisenhunt as head coach. Chris Johnson was released and later signed with the Jets. In his stead, the Titans will go with Shonn Greene and rookie Bishop Sankey.

"Johnson was the face of the Titans for many years," Whisenhunt said. "But not any more. They weren't able to say this enough about CJ2K when he was here, but now, 'he's gone.'"

The Chiefs season ended with a devastating 45-44 loss in Indianapolis in the wildcard playoffs, a game in which Kansas City blew a 28-point, fourth-quarter lead.

"We had more breakdowns than Dick Vermeil," Andy Reid said. "But it will be different this year. If you ask me to give you reasons why we'll be better, I'll refuse to give them to you. Those are called 'unanswered points.'"

Kansas City wins, 27-21.

New England @ Miami (+4½)

Doctors have cleared Rob Gronkowski for the Patriots opener in Miami. A full year from Gronkowski is key if Tom Brady and the Patriots are to make a Super Bowl run.

"It was a dramatic announcement by Gronk's doctor," Brady said. "He said, 'It's alive!!'"

Miami finished 8-8 last year in a season defined by the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin controversy. Ryan Tannehill enters his third season as the starting quarterback, and Joe Philbin expects a breakout season.

"Ryan has become this team's unquestioned leader," Philbin said. "He's made it clear in the locker room that there is to be no hazing. He insists that the humiliation take place only on the field."

Brady throws for 245 yards and 2 scores, one to Gronkowski, and the Pats win, 24-20.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-1½)

The Bucs canned Greg Schiano in December and soon thereafter hired Lovie Smith, who returns to the site of his first NFL coaching job.

"I think the players, fans, and management were glad to see Schiano go," Smith said. "Heck, who wasn't? Did you know that The Knack are Buccaneers fans? They even reunited just to record a remix of 'My Sharona' called 'No Schiano.'"

The Panthers won the NFC South last year, and a repeat of that feat will depend a great deal on Cam Newton's ability to cohese with his receiving corps. Newton is also nursing a fractured rib suffered in Carolina's third preseason game.

"Cam has to learn that he can't take hits," Ron Rivera said. "I have a solution, but it's a radical one: we've hired a third base coach to make sure Cam slides.

"And speaking of 'slides,' we may be due for one after winning the NFC South with a 12-4 record. But don't count on it. Our offense may be hurting, but our defense should dominate, as long as Luke Kuechly can tackle everything in sight, including over-expectations.”

Tampa wins 20-16.

San Francisco @ Dallas (+4½)

The Cowboys have posted three straight 8-8 seasons, missing the playoff with week 17 losses each time. In the final year of his contract, Jason Garrett knows it's now or never, and even a playoff victory may not be enough to save his job.

"My job is safe," Garrett said. "Or at least that's what Jerry Jones said. Are they empty words? Maybe. People tell me that Jerry says the same things to me that he does to much younger women—sweet nothings."

The 49ers are again expected to battle the Seahawks for the NFC West title, with the Cardinals and Rams also expected to interject themselves into the conversation, as well.

"Our minds are solely on the Cowboys," Jim Harbaugh said. "When the schedules were released back in April, our players circled this matchup on their calendars. I circled Jason Garrett's name on mine. Not only can I draw them, I can also coach circles around 'Jason Garrett.'"

Tony Romo and Colin Kaepernick both take advantage of depleted defenses, and the home-standing Cowboys win 34-31.

Indianapolis @ Denver (-7½)

Peyton Manning spent the offseason dissecting, in great detail, every mistake in the Broncos disastrous 43-8 Super Bowl 48 loss to the Seahawks in February.

"I'm just now getting around to the second quarter," Manning said. "The Seattle defense really came to play. I was hoping to find out what it was like to be a two-time Super Bowl champion. Unfortunately, the Seahawks defense didn't oblige that request, but they did make me feel like Eli Manning nonetheless.

"But it's important for us to put that behind us. And we will. It may be hard to believe, but I think our offense has improved. Sure, we lost Eric Decker, but we've added some weapons, like Emmanuel Sanders, and Montee Ball could be a breakout star at running back. Plus, I've added a new pass to my repertoire: it's called the 'F-Bomb.'"

The Colts season was defined by a 28-point, second half comeback over the Chiefs in the wildcard round of the playoffs.

"Speaking of 'comebacks,'" Andrew Luck said, "Robert Irsay can 'come back' after six games. Plus, he has to pay $500,000, which, if he looked in the ashtrays, I'm sure he could find in his car."

Manning throws for 324 yards and three scores, and the Broncos win 41-27.

NY Giants @ Detroit (-5 ½)

Jim Caldwell is the new head coach in Detroit, and the former head man in Indianapolis plans to lead with a style vastly unlike that of Jim Schwartz, who was canned after last season.

"Schwartz should be happy," Caldwell said, "because he won't get a pat on the back for anything he did in Detroit."

Eli Manning has targeted a 70% completion rate this season, a lofty number for sure, but one that Manning feels he can reach. Doing so will certainly make the Giants a contender in the competitive NFC East, as a tough opener awaits at Ford Field.

"I tossed 27 picks last year," Manning said. "It didn't get me fired, but it almost got me my own ESPN show, 'Pardon the Interception.'"

Giants win, 28-24.

San Diego @ Arizona (-3)

After a 10-win season, the Cardinals believe they have the team to make a run at the NFC West title. They certainly have the cornerback to do it. Patrick Peterson signed a five-year, $70 million contract extension, with $48 million guaranteed.

"I'm the best cornerback in the league," Peterson said. "So, if you're a receiver, or a person looking for a loan, I've got you covered."

The Chargers were one of three AFC West teams to make the playoffs last year. Philip Rivers and company are aiming for more this year.

"That's right," Rivers said. "We don't think we've reached the apex of our ability just yet. And take it from a man who's fathered seven children, we're not done."

San Diego wins, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:04 PM | Comments (0)

September 3, 2014

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 25

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jeff Gordon — Gordon was running second early at Atlanta when he blew a tire, sending him into the wall. He fell two laps down, but battled back to regain the lead lap and finished 17th.

"It was 'The Night the Air Went Out in Georgia,'" Gordon said. "I didn't see a squirrel on the track, but I do believe I heard a snake. It went, 'Sssssssssss.'"

2. Joey Logano — A week after winning at Bristol, Logano finished 14th in the Oral-B USA 500. He is now fourth in the points standings, 81 out of first.

"Our performance was a far cry from that at Bristol," Logano said. "If I'm 'Sliced Bread' in winning at Bristol, then I must be 'Loaf Bread' finishing 14th at Atlanta."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt just missed a top-10 finish at Atlanta with an 11th. He is second in the Sprint Cup points standings, 21 behind Jeff Gordon.

"Sunday night's race was called the 'Oral-B USA 500.' I think a better name would have been the 'Mouth of the South.'

"But is it a good idea for dental health awareness in NASCAR? I see a conflict of interest with NASCAR's 'Drive For Diversity' program, because good dental hygiene encourages 'whiteness.'"

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished third at Atlanta, as Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kasey Kahne won for the first time this season, locking up a spot in the Chase For the Cup. Johnson is sixth in the points standings.

"What a great run by Kahne," Johnson said. "Now, all four Hendrick drivers are in the Chase. Kasey went from 'Chase bubble' to 'Chase bubbly,' because we celebrated with champagne."

5. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski night in Atlanta ended with 28 laps remaining after a collision with Josh Wise. Keselowski finished 39th, and is fifth in the points standings, 90 out of first.

"I ran right into the back of Wise's No. 98 Chevrolet," Keselowski said. "It's certainly not the first time I've been called a 'Wise-ass.'"

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth gained the lead with a two-tire pit stop on the final caution, but couldn't hold off Kasey Kahne, who took four tires. Kenseth finished second, falling short of his first win, but still clinched a spot in the Chase.

"Squirrels sightings aside," Kenseth said, "Kahne 'skunked' me on that restart.

"My wife and I released an anti-bullying children's book called 'Race Against Bullying.' Some drivers I know have a track record of bullying. In fact, if bullying were a race, Carl Edwards would have the track record."

7. Kevin Harvick — Harvick was squeezed behind Paul Menard in a late restart at Atlanta, and found the wall after contact with Menard and Joey Logano. Harvick finished 19th.

"I nearly hit a squirrel crossing the track early in the race," Harvick said. "That wasn't my last encounter with an animal nuisance. It looked like Menard was playing possum on the late restart."

8. Carl Edwards — Edwards scored his sixth top-five of the season with a fifth at Atlanta. He is seventh in the points standings, 117 out of first.

"Luckily," Edwards said, "I've already locked up a spot in the postseason. I can tell you, it's one thing to be 'Chased,' it's another to be 'pursued.' Joe Gibbs Racing really wanted me, and ironically, they did back flips to get me."

9. Ryan Newman — Newman posted his ninth top-10 result of the year with a seventh in the Oral-B USA 500. He can clinch a spot in the Chase with a finish of 41st or better next week at Richmond (assuming there is a repeat winner).

"I could go to Richmond," Newman said, "not win, and still make the Chase For The Cup. And that's fine with me. It may not be official, but my slogan at Richmond will be, 'Virginia is for losers.'"

10. Kasey Kahne — Kahne passed Matt Kenseth on the final restart and held on for the win in the Oral-B USA 500 in Atlanta. Kahne was previously leading, and seemingly on his way to the win, when a tangle between Kyle Busch and Ryan Truex brought out a caution.

"I'm not sure what those clowns were doing," Kahne said. "But once again, we've seen the worst of Kyle Busch. There's only one thing that gets the best of Kyle, and that's his frustrations."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

September 2, 2014

2014 NFL Preseason Power Rankings

A lot changes in the seven months between the Super Bowl and the regular season. Since the NFL's expansion and realignment in 2002, only half the playoff field from the previous year reaches the postseason again. Recently, however, we've seen more teams returning to the playoffs.

This season, I'm picking nine playoff teams to repeat, which is high, but in line with what we've seen the last few years. You'll notice I have a lot of teams close to .500. Some of last year's bad teams have made significant moves and real progress, mostly by poaching free agents from the good teams. That happens every year, but more than normal this season.

The numbered rankings below are for right now, beginning-of-season strength, and not necessarily a forecast of each team's success over the course of the whole year. However, the brackets show predicted regular-season record, and you'll find postseason predictions at the bottom. For more detailed thoughts on Week 1, please refer to my earlier article on the Week 1 odds; not too much has changed since I wrote that.

1. Seattle Seahawks [11-5] — Over the last decade, we haven't really had any dynasties in the NFL. The Seahawks look like a real candidate. They're well-coached, they're young, and they are awfully good. The greatest impediment to dynasties, though, hasn't been lack of talent, it's been lack of health. The Seahawks played 19 meaningful games last season, and they had a short offseason. No team has appeared in back-to-back Super Bowls in a decade.

When Percy Harvin gets injured, will Russell Wilson have anyone to throw to? If Wilson gets hurt, do you have faith in Tarvaris Jackson to lead the offense? If Richard Sherman or Earl Thomas has to miss time, will this look like a pretty average defense? Seattle lost three defensive starters (two linemen and cornerback Brandon Browner) in the offseason. Take away one more big name, and it's not going to be elite. If the Seahawks stay healthy, they'll be a very good team. No one stays healthy two years in a row.

2. Denver Broncos [12-4] — I wrote about fantasy football last week, and there's something I didn't make clear: I don't think Peyton Manning is the top QB this year, on the field or in fantasy. The Broncos lost Eric Decker, Knowshon Moreno, and Zane Beadles in the offseason. The team has taken steps to replace all of them, but there's bound to be a downgrade. Last year was a charmed run, breaking numerous records, and no one repeats a season like that. Most worrisome, questions emerged in the postseason about Manning's arm strength and his capacity to throw downfield. I'm a huge Peyton Manning fan; I think he is the greatest quarterback to ever live. I'm confident he'll be a great quarterback this year, but I'd rather draft Drew Brees.

The Broncos made real upgrades to their defensive backfield this offseason, a smart priority that should pay off in both the regular season and playoffs. Denver has a tough opening schedule, so don't give up if the team goes into its bye week 1-2.

3. New Orleans Saints [11-5] — Rebuilding their defense, without familiar faces like Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith. The focus was on pass defense, with free agent safety Jairus Byrd the most significant addition. If the Saints can add a little oomph to their explosive offense, they can challenge any team in the NFL. It will be interesting to see how much they miss Darren Sproles. Week 1, at Atlanta, should provide an early glimpse of the competition in the NFC South.

4. New England Patriots [12-4] — Last year, I began the section on New England, "The story is their depleted receiving corps." That shallow group of receivers haunted the Patriots all season and led to Tom Brady's weakest performance in years. New England made some big moves on defense this offseason, but I've already written about those. Has the team addressed last year's problem on offense? Well, they brought in Brandon LaFell and Tim Wright. That's not nothing, but it's hardly a major upgrade. Maybe all Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins needed was some time to get into sync with Brady, and one or both will have a breakout season. Right now the most obvious difference between this year's offense and last year's is the absence of all-pro guard Logan Mankins.

5. Green Bay Packers [9-7] — Last year, Aaron Rodgers missed half the season, Randall Cobb missed half the season, Clay Matthews missed five games, and they still won the NFC North. The Packers have an explosive passing game, and Eddie Lacy may be the runner they've been missing since Ahman Green. They need to stay healthy, and the defense needs to come together, but they should repeat as division champs. Interior defensive line is a possible area of concern. I'm curious to see how they use Julius Peppers.

6. Cincinnati Bengals [10-6] — Bad offseason in the Queen City. The return of a healthy Geno Atkins is offset by the loss of Michael Johnson in free agency, and the team didn't patch any holes in free agency or the draft. Perhaps most worrisome, the media picked Andy Dalton. Every year, we choose a quarterback whose career to ruin. Last season, it was Matt Schaub. A couple years before that, it was Kyle Orton. We've chosen Tony Romo more than once, but he's the only one it won't stick to. Dalton was awful in last year's playoff loss, but he's led Cincinnati to a better record each year, with three straight postseason appearances. No one was chanting for Josh Johnson, but with Jason Campbell and A.J. McCarron on the roster, impatient fans might turn on Dalton if he has a bad game or two. And unless Tyler Eifert makes an unexpected leap, there's still not a real secondary target to take pressure off A.J. Green. The Bengals should be good in 2014. But the Texans should have been good in 2013, and they went 2-14.

7. San Francisco 49ers [10-6] — They've made three straight NFC Championship Games. The Niners begin the season without two of their best linebackers, NaVorro Bowman (Physically Unable to Perform) and Aldon Smith (suspension). Assuming both return at 100%, the defense should be great in the second half of the season. The first half of the season, though, I'll be curious to see if it's still an effective unit. The offense has some exciting weapons, but will sink or swim with third-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick. His play last year was good but uneven. If Kaep can establish himself as a top-10 QB, the Niners should be dangerous in the playoffs.

8. San Diego Chargers [9-7] — Last year they made the second round of the playoffs despite a pass defense that ranked 29th (4,139 yards, 96.4 passer rating). They'll open 2014 with two important additions: Pro Bowl CB Brandon Flowers and first-round draft pick Jason Verrett. Don't sleep on this team. The offense could be even better with the continued development of Keenan Allen and Ladarius Green, and the defense has plugged its biggest hole. Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead can fill in at RB if Ryan Mathews gets hurt. The Chargers have a killer schedule, but I believe they're a good team and a real threat in the AFC.

9. Philadelphia Eagles [9-7] — Nick Foles can't possibly repeat last year's 27-TD, 2-INT, 119.2-rating miracle. But he does look like a capable leader on an offense stacked with talent. Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles, and Jeremy Maclin stand to catch the balls DeSean Jackson won't. The Eagles, 11-point favorites at home against the Jaguars in Week 1, are the appropriate opening selection in survivor pools. Don't overthink this.

10. Indianapolis Colts [10-6] — Made the playoffs twice in a row, and Andrew Luck is developing the way they hoped. They play in an easy division and are favorites to repeat as AFC South champs. But they don't have explosive playmakers on offense, and their best defensive player is 33 and begins the season on suspension. Their run defense got embarrassed in last year's playoffs and they did little to improve it in the offseason. The Colts should be fine, but they're not serious contenders yet.

11. Atlanta Falcons [9-7] — They went 4-12 last year. But the season before, they were 13-3 and made the playoffs for the third year in a row. If Julio Jones and Roddy White stay healthy, we should expect good things from the Falcons. They don't have Tony Gonzalez, but they took some steps to upgrade their defensive line in free agency. Atlanta's talent level is closer to what we saw in 2012 than in 2013.

12. St. Louis Rams [8-8] — Let's start with the bad news. Their best cornerback left in free agency, and starting QB Sam Bradford is out for the year, replaced by journeyman Shaun Hill, who joined the team five months ago. The good news is that last year, the Rams went 7-9 in the toughest division in football. The team is loaded with young talent, including two more top-15 draft picks. The offensive line is stacked, they feel good about RB Zac Stacy, and the receiving corps is unproven but explosive. But the real gem in St. Louis is the defense. The front seven could be the best in the league, led by DEs Robert Quinn and Chris Long. I think they're still a year or two away, but with the right breaks, the Rams could make a serious run in 2014.

13. Baltimore Ravens [9-7] — The Ravens had a relatively quiet offseason, so what you expect this year depends on where you thought the team was at the end of last season. Did you see a Super Bowl champion who stumbled because of factors not likely to repeat, or did you see a team who put everything into one last run for 2012, and had to rebuild? This is basically the same team as last year. There are some good players, and there are some holes. Their draft focused on defense; I think that was smart. I don't see Baltimore as a powerhouse, but if the Bengals stumble, look for the Ravens to win their division. Three of their first four games are at home, so if they don't start 3-1 or 4-0, you can write them off.

14. Miami Dolphins [8-8] — Ryan Tannehill showed progress last season. There's a solid defense in place, so if the offense clicks, they could challenge the Patriots in the AFC East. The running game was mediocre last year, and whether it's Lamar Miller, Knowshon Moreno, Daniel Thomas, or some combination, that needs to improve in 2014. But the biggest issue is the deep ball. Last season, speedy WR Mike Wallace was wasted in Miami's horizontal passing attack. They acquired one of the premier vertical threats in the game, and couldn't use him because Tannehill kept getting sacked or dumping it off underneath. The Dolphins don't need to change anything dramatic, they just need to take advantage of the weapons they have.

15. Chicago Bears [8-8] — A lot of turnover from last season. Julius Peppers and Henry Melton are gone. Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston are in. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett are gone; Santonio Holmes is in. Josh McCown, Michael Bush, Major Wright — a lot of familiar faces won't be in Chicago this season. The Bears' offense became a powerhouse last season, with Marc Trestman's scheme, Matt Forte healthy, and Alshon Jeffery emerging to give the team a devastating pair of receivers. The defense is trending in the other direction, with stars like Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman aging. The team targeted defense in the draft, but that may take a year or two to pay off.

16. Detroit Lions [8-8] — For the second year in a row, they bombed at the end of the season. The Lions lost their last four in a row, and six of the last seven. That got head coach Jim Schwarz fired, replaced by somnolent former Colts HC Jim Caldwell. The offense is built around the passing game. Matthew Stafford has a ton of weapons: running backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, wide receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Eric Ebron. Stafford needs to raise him game to the next level, and at this point really has no excuse not to. Even if Stafford rises to expectations, a questionable defense could hold the Lions back. They're a playoff contender, but probably not a Super Bowl contender.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [8-8] — Nice offseason. They brought in Josh McCown at QB, Logan Mankins to protect him, and Mike Evans for him to throw to. Doug Martin is healthy and adds an explosive element to the offense. The defense, already stocked with talent like Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Dashon Goldson, added free agents Michael Johnson and Alterraun Verner. Both were Pro Bowl-quality players in 2013. If McCown plays the way he did last year in Chicago, the Bucs will make the playoffs.

18. Houston Texans [10-6] — After back-to-back division titles and playoff wins in 2011-12, they went 2-14 last season. That involved a lot of bad luck; there are still some awfully good players here. However, a lot of familiar faces are gone. Most obviously, Matt Schaub gives way to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Also gone are longtime TE Owen Daniels, defensive lineman Antonio Smith, and safety Danieal Manning. Despite the losses of Smith and Manning, the Texans expect a great year from their defense, based on the return of Brian Cushing and the pairing of superstar J.J. Watt with number one overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney. If Arian Foster can recapture a little of his old magic, Fitzpatrick synches with Andre Johnson, and the big names on defense stay healthy, Houston will probably win the AFC South. Lots of ifs, but don't underestimate the potential here.

19. Washington [8-8] — Every year, Washington makes waves in free agency. This season, the team acquired a lot of talent, but mostly without the hype. You heard about DeSean Jackson, of course, pairing with Pierre Garçon to give Robert Griffin III a potent 1-2 punch at receiver. But the team also quietly acquired Jason Hatcher, Tracy Porter, and a pair of safeties, Ryan Clark and Duke Ihenacho, to address the weak secondary. The offense hinges on RG3, whose weak preseason worried fans, but who should rebound without his knee brace and his hatred of Mike Shanahan. Defensively, the concern is lack of depth. If anyone gets hurt, they're going to have problems.

20. Dallas Cowboys [7-9] — Everyone expects the defense to be terrible. But there doesn't appear to be a dominant team in the NFC East, and if the Cowboy offenses produces the way people expect, Dallas could contend for a division title. Tony Romo suffered a serious back injury at the end of last season, so his health is a concern. DeMarco Murray's had trouble staying on the field; his health is a concern, too. Dez Bryant needs to take the next step on the field, and make fewer headlines off it. Young receiver Terrance Williams looks to take the next step, and Jason Witten must defy the ravages of age. The offensive line should be among the best in the league if everyone stays healthy.

21. New York Jets [7-9] — Five years ago, they had the NFL's best defense. They still have a strong defensive line, led by Muhammad Wilkerson and Defensive Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson, but the rest of the unit doesn't look like anything special. Offensively, the team made two big-name free agent acquisitions: backup QB Michael Vick and starting WR Eric Decker. Vick gives the team options if Geno Smith struggles. Chris Johnson isn't a big name at this point, but he's rushed for at least 1,000 yards every year of his career. He's not a downgrade from Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell (who are still around), but he boasts an upside they don't, the memory of what he was from 2008-10.

22. Kansas City Chiefs [7-9] — Four defensive starters left in free agency. The front seven still looks pretty good, but the secondary is unproven, in a division with Denver and San Diego. Offensively, it's unclear that they have any weapons outside of Jamaal Charles. He's a great weapon, but the receiving corps appears decidedly lackluster. The only KC receivers who generated any real interest in fantasy leagues were suspended WR Dwayne Bowe and backup TE Travis Kelce. Look for Kansas City to take a big step back this season.

23. Carolina Panthers [6-10] — Looked great in 2013, but they had the worst offseason of any team in the NFL. Carolina's top four WRs from 2013 are all gone, including Steve Smith. Both starting safeties left in free agency, as did starting CB Captain Munnerlyn and nickel back Drayton Florence. Offensive linemen Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton both retired. That's a lot of holes to patch, and I think the Panthers struggle this season.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers [6-10] — The Steelers need to rebuild, but they haven't accepted that yet. Troy Polamalu is 33 and has visibly lost a step. Ike Taylor is 34 and coming off his worst season. Brett Keisel is about to turn 36. He hasn't been in Pittsburgh for a couple years, but isn't the news of James Harrison's retirement a pretty clear message that the old Super Bowl defense needs to be rebuilt? Ryan Shazier is a great start, but this project will be bigger than any one player. The Steelers look like the third-best team in the AFC North.

25. Oakland Raiders [5-11] — Signed a lot of older free agents, most of whom are a couple years past their primes, but not to the point they aren't valuable: the Raiders added guys who can play. Matt Schaub seems to have lost the QB battle to Derek Carr, but the team has options and either one should be an upgrade from last year. Maurice Jones-Drew pairs with Darren McFadden at RB, and at least one of them should still have the legs to make plays. The receiving options are a little underwhelming.

The real moves came on defense. The defensive line has three new starters, all of whom have made a Pro Bowl in the last five seasons: Antonio Smith, Justin Tuck, and LaMarr Woodley. None can play the way they did three years ago, but they're upgrades to the existing roster. First-round draft pick Khalil Mack, a linebacker from Buffalo, is widely viewed as a can't-miss NFL talent. The secondary stole both starting cornerbacks from across the Bay, former 49ers Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown. All these moves don't turn a 4-12 team into a contender, but they might turn it into a .500 team. The schedule is tough, so I've got them a couple games below that.

26. Arizona Cardinals [5-11] — Barely missed the playoffs last year, and were easily the best team not to make it. They don't have to worry about that in 2014. This sensational defense has been torn apart. Darnell Dockett is on injured reserve. Daryl Washington is suspended for the year. Karlos Dansby and Yeremiah Bell left in free agency. The Cardinals do have an imposing defensive backfield: Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu, Antonio Cromartie, and first-round draft choice Deone Bucannon. Andre Ellington averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season, and there's hope that Larry Fitzgerald will rebound. But you can't make the playoffs just on an excellent secondary, and I don't think the rest of the team is there right now. The NFC West is a brutal division, and it's probably not realistic to expect another winning season.

27. Tennessee Titans [6-10] — The same team that went 7-9 last year. Alterraun Verner is gone, Shaun Phillips and Wesley Woodyard are in. First-round pick Taylor Lewan is listed as a backup. Jake Locker looked to be making progress last year, but he has to stay healthy and I'm not sure who he's going to throw to. I like their offensive line a lot, but the rest of the team does not look strong.

28. New York Giants [6-10] — Eli Manning had a disastrous 2013. He passed for 18 TDs, 27 INTs, and a 69.4 passer rating, with a career-high 39 sacks. Ben McAdoo comes over from Green Bay as the new offensive coordinator, promising to improve Manning's accuracy. He'll do so with a revamped offensive line, no longer featuring Chris Snee or David Diehl, both of whom retired. The running game also moves in a different direction, with former Jacksonville backup Rashad Jennings in the starting role. The defense has gotten an overhaul, too; the biggest name missing is Justin Tuck. It's hard not to see this as a rebuilding year for the Giants.

29. Buffalo Bills [6-10] — The Bills have gone 6-10 in each of the last three seasons. They haven't had a winning record since 2004, and they've had four head coaches in the last five years. Pro Bowl safety Jairus Byrd left in free agency. Former Patriot Brandon Spikes is their new middle linebacker; he's a hell of a player. But this team wasn't good last season, and it didn't do much to upgrade. The Dolphins and Jets both appear to be on the way up, and New England is up already. Buffalo finishes last in the AFC East, for the sixth year in a row.

30. Minnesota Vikings [6-10] — Their glorious defensive line has finally disintegrated. Both Jared Allen and Kevin Williams left in free agency, Allen to the rival Bears. Rookie Teddy Bridgewater is pushing Matt Cassel at QB, but it's rare for rookie QBs to succeed the way recent players like Cam Newton and Russell Wilson have, so Viking fans shouldn't expect the stars in 2014. I wrote in depth about Adrian Peterson recently — he's got a lot of mileage. Cordarrelle Patterson appears poised for a breakout year, but I don't believe Minnesota is ready to bring its young players into a cohesive team that competes for a division title.

31. Cleveland Browns [6-10] — Treading water. They lost T.J. Ward, but brought in Donte Whitner and Jim Leonhard. They lost D'Qwell Jackson, added Karlos Dansby. They had a nice draft and they'll have an extra first-round draft pick next year, probably a good one. But as the team tries to develop a pair of young quarterbacks, the loss WR Josh Gordon — suspended and out for the year — is tough to look past. The Browns are on the right track — or will be if they ever let a coach last more than two years — but they're in the early stages of a rebuild and fans shouldn't expect success this season.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [4-12] — Everyone's ranking them last, and I wanted to be the guy who doesn't. They made a nice move in free agency, signing former Seahawks Red Bryant and Chris Clemons as their new defensive ends. They drafted two wide receivers in the second round to address their punchless offense. They have some young talent from other early draft picks. But they're still starting Chad Henne at QB, I don't believe Toby Gerhart is the true successor to Maurice Jones-Drew, Justin Blackmon probably won't play this year, and their defensive backfield is badly subpar. They're probably moving in the right direction, but they're getting there slowly.

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card: HOUSTON def. Baltimore, CINCINNATI def. Indianapolis
Divisional: NEW ENGLAND def. Cincinnati, DENVER def. Houston
Championship: NEW ENGLAND def. Denver

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card: GREEN BAY def. Atlanta, San Francisco def. PHILADELPHIA
Divisional: NEW ORLEANS def. San Francisco, SEATTLE def. Green Bay
Championship: NEW ORLEANS def. Seattle

Super Bowl XLIX

Patriots over Saints

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:49 PM | Comments (0)

September 1, 2014

Macho Meatheads

Baseball may be the thinking person's sport, but it still seems often enough that it's populated by people for whom thinking is only slightly less dangerous than trying to sneak one past Mike Trout or taking Felix Hernandez over the fence. Especially when it comes to injuries, their proper recuperation and rehabilitation time, and possibly their very presence.

It's one thing for a team in or knocking on the door of a pennant race to nudge a key wounded warrior back to the field as soon as reasonably possible. It's something else again for a team whose season has (or should be) blown up to push it. Consider the Rangers and the Mets, a pair of teams going nowhere this year whose eyes should be upon the next few.

The word out of Arlington is that, not only have they lost Shin-soo Choo for the season, but the pressure is on Yu Darvish to get back on the mound as close to yesterday as possible. The word out of New York is that a related pressure curls around David Wright. And the word out of Cincinnati is that Homer Bailey is on the threshold of being shut down for the season.

The Rangers at this writing have baseball's worst record. The Mets are ten games better and not quite in the National League East sewer. The Reds hung in the NL Central race until a couple of injuries too many and a none-too-glittering jacket on the road sent them at this writing to eight and a half out of first place and six out of the wild card hunt.

Now, why on earth is Rangers manager Ron Washington itching to get Darvish back on the mound when an MRI has revealed elbow inflammation and when that kind of revelation often as not telegraphs something far more grave if not handled properly?

Why on earth are the Mets not telling Wright there's little glory to be had playing through neck and shoulder pain for a fourth-place team with no chance of even sneaking into the postseason, a team that needs to have every healthy duck in the swamp for 2015 and beyond? Even if he's the face of the franchise now and for the foreseeable future?

And who do the Reds think they are showing the common sense shown by medical director Tim Kremchek, who says Bailey's itching to get back out there but the club has to think not of the next four weeks but of the next few seasons?

Washington isn't in an incomprehensible position, of course. Not with the equivalent of $71 million worth of 2014 Rangers' payroll on the disabled list. But as Yahoo Sports's Jeff Passan observes, "Were Washington inclined to ask, he might learn that one of the greatest causes of catastrophic arm injuries is returning too quickly from lesser ones. Even the slightest tweak of mechanics to make up for the most minute pain can cause a pitcher's rhythm to fall apart, which forces more adjustments, which leads to undue stress on the elbow or shoulder."

Asked about Darvish's recovery time, the manager was foolish enough to tell a radio show, "So he's got inflammation? I've got inflammation." Washington had to backpedal almost on a dime, apologizing for the remark in a subsequent radio interview, but following up with how he wants Darvish back so "he doesn't quit on teammates, that's all there is [to it]."

Brilliant. With the Rangers lining up for a possible number one draft pick next summer, the manager — usually renowned as a player's manager — sends the possible message that Arlington isn't necessarily the smartest place to be if you should get hurt, because you'll be pushed to return sooner than you should and possibly have your career blown up in your face.

Wright won't name it as a specific culprit, but anyone knowing anything knows his balky shoulder, which began this year on a hard slide causing a rotator cuff bruising, has had an effect on his power swing. One minute he won't blame his lost season on it, the next he admits it'll take the entire off season for the shoulder to recover properly. And if you take general manager Sandy Alderson's word for it, nobody in authority on the Mets is moving too quickly to convince Wright to take a powder for the rest of the season.

Never mind that he's the franchise face. Never mind that, at 31, he still has seasons to go before he sleeps. Never mind that the Mets need the healthiest Wright possible to return to proper, sustained competitiveness. You'd think a franchise riddled with injury-compromised history (do such names as Gary Gentry, John Stearns, Craig Swan, Dwight Gooden, Jason Isringhausen, Bill Pulsipher, Paul Wilson, Ryan Church, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay, and Johan Santana come back to you?) would smarten up about player recovery.

The Reds have a comparable history. (Jim Maloney, Mel Queen, Gary Nolan, Chris Sabo, Rob Dibble, Ken Griffey, Jr. sound familiar?) They didn't get shoved out of this year's races purely because of injuries; their bullpen had a lot to do with that and their offense didn't help much when most needed. But Jay Bruce isn't recovered fully from knee surgery, and Joey Votto's knee and quad trouble has limited him to 62 games, and he, too, could be shut down for the season to recover properly. Talking about Votto's recovery and Bailey's needed recovery, and with a September comeback not necessarily in the wind, the Reds are talking as smart as the Rangers and the Mets need to talk.

Even a contender or two has a problem on its hand regarding an injured producer. The Tigers have slipped from the likely American League Central ogres to barely hanging in the wild card hunt. But Miguel Cabrera has been playing on balky ankles in a season that follows the one in which his abdominal issues rendered him almost an afterthought in last fall's postseason exit just short of a World Series. And Anibal Sanchez could be lost for the rest of the season thanks to a pectoral muscle strain aggravated when he might have torn scar tissue on the muscle while playing long-toss this week.

The Yankees have managed to hang in the hunt despite enough injuries to populate an emergency room thesis. But Masahiro Tanaka went down with a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing arm in early July, after knocking the league on its ear through 9 July. (12-4, 2.51 ERA, 1.01 WHIP.) He's just begun a throwing program and hopes (as do the Yankees) to be on the mound again in September. If by some unforeseen happenstance the Yankees back into the postseason, it's an open question whether a partially healthy Tanaka will hurt or help, considering the proper recovery for injuries of that sort.

Washington thinks he knows inflammation? Bad enough you'd be afraid of him managing various players who looked like extraterrestrial talents but who bulled their ways into careers that fell too short of what their talents suggested while doing their teams no favors. Worse is how you should be afraid of him managing those who know what injury mismanagement can do to shorten them and hurt their teams.

Try to imagine Washington managing Jim Palmer, a Hall of Fame pitcher who learned the hard way, and much too soon, what happens when an honest-to-God injury clashes with what Passan calls the "macho baseball culture" that orders you back on the mound just about as soon as you can move your arm and decides about 90 percent of your real injuries are located in your brain.

Palmer couldn't have asked for a better rookie splash: he out-lasted Sandy Koufax in Game 2 of the 1966 World Series, on an afternoon ruined when Willie Davis's three errors in a single inning put Koufax into an unearned hole and the game out of reach, en route a stupefying Orioles sweep. Palmer was twenty years old and the youngest to toss a World Series shutout.

But he couldn't have asked for a worse postscript. The following season, his elbow blew out after nine starts and an early 2.94 ERA. Over two years in the minors, Palmer struggled to recuperate and dealt with an Oriole organization insisting it was all between his ears. Who knows how deeply that cut into Palmer's psyche? From the moment he returned in 1969, he spent the rest of his career driving his own organization crazy with Hall of Fame pitching and Hall of Fame hypochondria.

The slightest discomfort, the merest hint of a physical malady, sent Palmer scurrying to assorted medical specialists and drove him to care for any injuries to what some thought was excess. They called this basically decent man who strained to be seen as normal behind his striking achievement and seeming perfectionism a narcissistic prima donna and even a quitter. They didn't get what Thomas Boswell concluded: "Palmer is, of course, just as tangled up, as human, as everybody else — and he knows it ... When Palmer pleads that he's misunderstood, he means people don't understand that despite his wealth-looks-talent-fame, he finds life just as troubling as anybody else." (Emphasis in the original.) Life, and baseball.

Yet Palmer factored large in eight Baltimore postseasons and three World Series rings — and led the American League in innings pitched four times while averaging 249 innings a season for his career. He became a first ballot Hall of Famer with only three of his top 10 pitching comps not Hall of Famers. (His top four comps, in descending order: Bob Gibson, Bob Feller, Juan Marichal, and Lefty Grove.)

"Could it be," Boswell would ask, two years after Palmer's retirement, pondering the roll of pitchers who'd hit the heights and then been done in by injuries right afterward, "that Jim Palmer was smart to nurse injuries?" Nineteen seasons, three Cy Young Awards, three World Series rings (one each in three decades; Palmer's the only pitcher to accomplish that one), one season as one of four 20-game winners in the season's rotation (Palmer's the last surviving member of that rotation, by the way), and a plaque in Cooperstown, say "Yes."

Nobody wants to be seen as a quitter, but too many want too many to play despite their bodies threatening to quit on them, possibly permanently. Taking one for the team too often leaves the team taking a few too many in return.

Wasn't that the big reason why the Nationals sacked Rob Dibble from their broadcast team, after Dibble zapped Stephen Strasburg for sitting one out with an injury? "Suck it up, kid. You can't have the cavalry come in and save your butt every time you feel a little stiff shoulder, sore elbow." Shortly afterward: turned out Strasburg would need Tommy John surgery. Showing how little Dibble learned from his own pitching career, when he missed two seasons with arm surgery and was forced to retire after an eight-season career.

Too many injuries blew up the Rangers' season before it really kicked into gear. They don't need to butt heads with their own manager over the care, feeding, and future of their best pitcher.

If Ron Washington wants Yu Darvish to last long and well, considering Darvish's outsize talent, not to mention wanting next year's draft prospects thinking kindly upon casting their lots with the Rangers; or, if the Mets want David Wright to play out his contract with season after season of competitive leadership; then, they'll do what the Reds look to be doing with Homer Bailey and other teams whose brains overrule their machismo tend to do when there's little left to play for other than spoiling or reviewing the roster and planning for next year.

They'll do what the Orioles once couldn't do and what Jim Palmer forced them to think about. They'll forget about the next four weeks and try thinking about the next four seasons and maybe more. They'll knock it off with the macho act and remember these players are human beings first and baseball machines second.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 6:51 PM | Comments (0)

Rough Summer Waters For San Jose Sharks

In many ways, this has been the Summer of Bizarro for the NHL.

On one hand, traditional-leaning teams like the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs have invested in forward-thinking analytics. On the other hand, the San Jose Sharks — a team known for being steady and keeping things close to the vest — have engaged in a turmoil unseen in franchise history.

It all started with the infamous loss to the Los Angeles Kings, notable for blowing a 3-0 series lead (also notable for being the only series that took the eventual Stanley Cup champs to seven games). Then it veered into discord about rebuilding, then clarifying (re: backtracking) on statements by GM Doug Wilson, then signing veteran tough guy John Scott and no one else, then stripping captain Joe Thornton and alternate Patrick Marleau of leadership letters, then Raffi Torres underwent surgery for the same surgery he had last year due to an infection.

Somewhere in between, the Sharks also got an outdoor game at the San Francisco 49ers new stadium. For NorCal hockey fans, this has been the only bright news in an otherwise strange summer.

On paper, the Sharks still have a fairly strong forward group. Their blueline is a bit thin, and Antii Niemi — one year removed from a Vezina nomination — comes with all sorts of questions in goal, along with Alex Stalock chomping at the bit. Thus, the Sharks haven't really lost anything in the lineup other than a fading Dan Boyle and often-scratched Martin Havlat. Team pundits are high on defensive prospect Mirco Mueller, and greater responsibilities will go towards emerging young defensemen Justin Braun, Jason Demers, and Matt Irwin, all under the watchful eye of Larry Robinson.

So are things actually in dire straits? Or is it a media/fan reaction during the summer doldrums?

The answer is unfortunately unclear.

Doug Wilson talked about wanting to institute a culture shift in the team, one where the younger players such as Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Logan Couture would take a larger leadership role. Larry Robinson was recently quoted as hoping the removal of the captaincy would allow Thornton to focus better on his role as an elite playmaker in the latter stages of his career.

There are many ifs surrounding the team. If Thornton and Marleau can check their egos and simply become high-level role players, the team is better for it. If Couture, Vlasic, and others can step up and assume a stronger part of the team identity, the team is better for it. If players like Mueller take the opportunity presented to them, then the team is better for it.

Those are some pretty big ifs, which marks this as a significant transitional year for the team. Coming out of it unscathed isn't totally out of the question. However, it will take a balance of effort, maturity, and a different kind of leadership to get there. Sharks fans will have to hold their breath while the result unfolds, and a verdict probably won't be truly seen until halfway through the season.

Posted by Mike Chen at 2:22 PM | Comments (0)