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August 29, 2014

Foul Territory: Well-Oiled Machines

* Kicking the Habit, or His Season is Like His Beer — On Ice — Denver's Matt Prater apologized to the Broncos and their fans for violating the NFL's substance abuse ban for drinking beer. So, if you mention "upright" to Prater, he could possibly think you're referring not to his kicking, but to his walking.

* Seoul Brothers — South Korea won the Little League World Series, beating Chicago's Jackie Robinson West 8-4 to win their third title. South Korea's neighbors to the North downplayed the accomplishment, saying it's not enough just to throw strikes, you have to threaten them, as well.

* No F-F-Foolin'? Or One-Armageddon it — Def Leppard will play the pre-game show at Wembley Stadium before the Dolphins/Raiders game in London. The English band has sold tens of millions of albums worldwide, and has promised the league that all its hits are legal.

* Your No Longer Part of the Club — Tiger Woods parted ways with Sean Foley, his swing coach for four years. Woods said the last person to show him how to swing a club with the proper conviction was Elin Nordegren.

* Paydirtbag — Richie Incognito was cleared to play by the NFL on Monday, and the former Miami Dolphin visited the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are in need of help on the offensive, and Incognito has a reputation as a player not only with the ability to anchor lines, but cross them, as well.

* Raider Damnation, or Don't Go There — The Oakland Raiders are the least desirable team to play for in the NFL, according to an NFL Nation Confidential survey. In their next survey, NFL Nation will pose the same question to players from teams other than Oakland.

* He's No. 1 (At Least on the Depth Chart) — The Minnesota Vikings named Matt Cassel the starting quarterback on Monday, giving him the nod over rookie Teddy Bridgewater. The only person excited about the proposition was Brett Favre.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:05 PM | Comments (0)

August 28, 2014

Final College Football Preseason Thoughts

It's almost time.

As we're less than 48 hours away from kickoff into this college football season, there are some last-second hopes that I have for this season, as well as the future of the sport. And as time is of the essence, here are some final preseason thoughts.

The SEC Network has so far been a pretty successful launch. Dari Nowkhah was the right choice to anchor the desk and given the number of schools and large audience already established, there's a lot of potential in this network. My hope though is that the SEC uses this network to its advantage. Hopefully journalism students from each of the 14 schools get the opportunity to work within the network and gain valued experience at a very high level.

I also hope that, while Paul Finebaum is on the network for ratings, he, nor his callers, become the face of the network. Let's save that for the athletes and coaches.

Speaking of the SEC, I hope that the decision to play eight conference games with a "plus-one" non-conference team from the power conferences brings back two more rivalries. Texas A&M should re-unite with Texas for a Thanksgiving showdown each year, while Missouri and Kansas should renew their border rivalry. These just make sense and while they won't be done this year, they should start to figure things out.

On a smaller scale, credit goes to North Dakota and North Dakota State for renewing their rivalry. Extra points to the folks at UND who were willing to play both games at NDSU's Fargodome to make it happen. Hope that one turns into a long-term affair again. As for BYU and Utah, really? You're going to let the Holy War end? Please reconsider.

I hope that the members of the college football playoff committee get it right, but realize soon that four teams aren't going to be enough. It's a great start, but slowly and surely, the playoff will have to grow in size. Which leads to a thought: perhaps the bowl games should be used to kick off the season. Neutral site showdowns have become the opening weekend rage (Alabama/W. Virginia, Ole Miss/Boise State, LSU/Wisconsin, Florida State/Oklahoma State, UCF/Penn State, etc.). If the playoff ever reaches 16 teams, similar to the FCS, it might be a way to save the bowl system and create great matchups to open the college football season, especially on a week when the NFL isn't playing.

I still hope that, for the mid-majors, a new tier is created with their own playoff system. They should bring in the best conferences from the current FCS (Missouri Valley, for example) and have the chance for each team to actually compete and play for a national championship. The mid-majors have little to no chance of making the last four in the new system; which makes it difficult to explain why they are in the same tier as the power five leagues.

I hope the Heisman vote is a close one. And I'd like to see a quarterback not win it.

I hope that athletic directors find a balance with fans. TV networks are bringing in the dough for colleges, yet they're also giving fans a way to skip attending the game and stay at home. AD's need to start finding ways to fill their stadiums again and make the events worth attending, rather than watching. Lowering prices is a good start, but there's more to it than just that.

While we're at it, AD's should open accounts for each athlete and for each piece of merchandise sold, a piece of the royalty goes to the athlete. Then, when the athlete chooses to leave, be it go pro or graduation, the account closes and they get a check. That keeps each athlete as an amateur, yet gives them a safety net for when they leave as a reward for their contributions. And if a player gets kicked off their team for any reason, that money is forfeited.

Finally, I hope there are some fantastic upsets in the first week. Why not start the playoff era by shaking the boat early and often? Regardless, this should be a season to remember. It's finally time to get started.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 5:14 PM | Comments (0)

August 27, 2014

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 24

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jeff Gordon — Gordon started second at Bristol but encountered handling issues that left him mid-pack for much of the race. He finished 16th, one lap down, and leads the Sprint Cup points standings by 27 over Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

"We're disappointed for sure," Gordon said. "But on the bright side, we've procured sponsorship from 3M, which was previously in a 10-year relationship with Greg Biffle. It was a mutually beneficial relationship for the Biff and 3M, and that's good. Take it from me, not all 10-year relationships end on good terms."

2. Joey Logano — Logano zipped past Matt Kenseth with 44 laps to go and held off Brad Keselowski to win the Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol. It was Logano's third win of the year and solidified his status as a true Cup contender.

"Hey," Logano said, "I don't mind being called 'the man to beat.' Mostly because it's the only time I'm called a 'man.'"

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt hit Denny Hamlin's No. 11 car, which was spun by Kevin Harvick, and suffered serious damage that sent him to the garage. He finished 39th.

"Hamlin's car just ripped the left side of my car off," Earnhardt said. "I'll quote a Michael Waltrip Racing driver and say 'a Toyota ruined my day.'

"Hamlin may want revenge on Harvick, but I don't. Those who know me well know I'm a good-natured guy just looking for a good time. So you could say both Denny and I have a reason to 'Get Happy.'"

4. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished second to Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano in the Irwin Tools Night Race, as the Penske stable swept all three races as Bristol. Keselowski won the Craftsman Trucks race, while Ryan Blaney took the Nationwide victory.

"I think this weekend proves that Penske Racing is the best team in NASCAR," Keselowski said. "And that's not just a 'sweeping' generalization."

5. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson overcame two early pit road speeding penalties and posted a solid fourth, his seventh top-5 result of the year. He is fifth in the points standings, 119 out of first.

"I was back in the familiar blue Lowe's paint scheme at Bristol," Johnson said. "I just feel faster in that paint scheme. Unfortunately, the only thing we 'blue' by at Bristol were the pit road timers."

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth held the lead late at Bristol, but succumbed to the charges of Joey Logano, who passed Kenseth with 44 laps remaining. Kenseth settled for third, his ninth top-five of the year.

"I couldn't keep him away," Kenseth said. "By 'him,' I'm not referring to Logano, but Carl Edwards. He'll be joining Joe Gibbs Racing next year. I guess I'll welcome him with open arms. I assume he'll welcome me with a closed fist."

7. Carl Edwards — Edwards took seventh at Bristol as all three Roush Fenway drivers posted top-10 finishes, with Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. leading the way with a sixth.

"I'm off to Joe Gibbs Racing at season's end," Edwards said. "I'll be in the No. 19 Toyota. Starting with a new team is never easy, but I'm getting a raise, of course. As they say, 'Change is good.' As I say, 'more change is better.'"

"And speaking of 'throws,' Hamlin's was nothing compared to the 'pitch' Joe Gibbs Racing gave me."

8. Ryan Newman — Newman finished 13th at Bristol, and is 14th in the Sprint Cup points standings with two races before the Chase.

"I wouldn't think of throwing my HANS device at another driver," Newman said. "However, I'd certainly throw a hands device at another driver. It's called a 'fist.' Just ask Juan Montoya."

9. Kevin Harvick — Harvick won the pole at Bristol and led 75 laps on his way to an 11th-place finish. Harvick faced the wrath of Denny Hamlin after wrecking the No. 11 car.

"Hamlin threw his HANS device at me," Harvick said. "I guess that means I'll 'catch hell.' Ironically, Hamlin showed 'restraint.' I'm not sure what Denny threw harder — his HANS device, or a tantrum."

10. Kurt Busch — Busch recorded his sixth top-five result of the year with a fifth at Bristol. With one victory this year, Busch has already locked up his spot in the Chase.

"Tempers were flaring at Bristol," Busch said. "Denny Hamlin flung his HANS device at Kevin Harvick. In case you're wondering, the HANS device is a head and neck restraint system. Personally, I've tested several head and neck restraints, and the HANS is by far my favorite. My least favorite is a Tony Stewart headlock."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:08 PM | Comments (0)

August 26, 2014

Should I Draft Adrian Peterson?

All listed fantasy scores assume ½-PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted. Whether you use traditional or PPR or ½-PPR, the scores given should be pretty close to what your league uses.

For much of the last seven years, Adrian Peterson has been the first overall pick in NFL fantasy leagues. This year, he's probably ceded that position to LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles, even Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy sometimes, with the occasional Peyton Manning, Calvin Johnson, or Jimmy Graham thrown in. Are we underrating the greatest running back of this generation? Or are we overrating a legend whose best years are now behind him?

This is Adrian Peterson's eighth season in the NFL. Running backs have the shortest careers of any position, and it's rare for an RB to be productive at this age and level of experience. However, Peterson is an exceptional athlete. You don't compare him to normal players. We'll look at RBs throughout history who meet all of the following conditions:

1. Between 28-30 years old
2. Six to eight years NFL experience
3. Top-10 fantasy RB in prior season
4. But not top-three
5. Top-three fantasy RB two seasons earlier
6. Played 16-game seasons

Adrian Peterson is 29, and he has played seven seasons in the NFL. He was the 8th-best RB in fantasy last season, and he was the top scorer the year before. Who else has a similar profile? Not many people. It's Eric Dickerson in 1990, Thurman Thomas in 1995, Barry Sanders in 1997, Emmitt Smith in 1997, Ricky Watters in 1998, and Marshall Faulk in 2003, plus Clinton Portis, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Brian Westbrook in 2009. That's nine comparable player seasons.

In the table below, x equates to the year listed — 2014 for Peterson. x-1 is the previous year, Peterson's 2013 season. x-2 is the season before that, Peterson's 2012. The numbers in the chart represent fantasy points, divided by 16. It's basically points per game, but no breaks for players who got injured and missed time.

This is a scary forecast if you're thinking of drafting Peterson third or fourth overall. The players above all look like Peterson: they're the same age, roughly the same wear-and-tear, all had recently been the best RB in the NFL (or close to it) and all had a pretty good season the year before, not the kind that indicates a player is washed up. Barry Sanders was awesome in '97, the best RB in the NFL. But no one else on the list was worth a top-three draft pick, and only Watters was deserving of a top-10. Seven of the nine dropped in value. Drafting Dickerson, Portis, or Westbrook in the first round would have wrecked your fantasy season.

This is a very small sample, and it's hard to draw conclusions from it. But apart from Walter Payton, most running backs who had top-five fantasy seasons after turning 29 were guys who had been underutilized early in their careers, and didn't have the same mileage as Peterson. Here are the highest-scoring fantasy seasons in a 16-game schedule, by running backs who were 29 or older:

1. Priest Holmes, 410 (25.6 fppg)
2. Barry Sanders, 336
3. Tiki Barber, 332
4. Tiki Barber, 326
5. Charlie Garner, 302
6. Curtis Martin, 299
7. Walter Payton, 293.9
8. Walter Payton, 293.7
9. John Riggins, 284
10. Walter Payton, 277

The only other RBs who topped 250 (15.6 ppg) in a season were Barber (again), Watters, Thomas Jones, Tony Dorsett, Dorsey Levens, Payton again, Emmitt Smith, and Tomlinson. That's with half-PPR scoring, so revise the numbers downward if your league doesn't count receptions (or up if it does). Those are good seasons — some of them worthy of a top-five draft pick. But there aren't very many of them. Peterson has earned comparisons to Sanders, Martin, and Payton. But we could just as easily compare him to Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk, or Thurman Thomas, all of whom lost effectiveness by Peterson's age.

We don't want to draw too many conclusions from age and experience, though, so let's look at recent performance. I'll show two more charts: most fantasy points in 2013, and most fantasy points over the last three years combined. Here are the top 10 fantasy RBs of 2013, by ½-PPR.

1. Jamaal Charles, 347 (21.7 per game)
2. LeSean McCoy, 307 (19.2)
3. Matt Forte, 302 (18.9)
4. Knowshon Moreno, 267 (16.7)
5. Marshawn Lynch, 259 (16.2)
6. DeMarco Murray, 234 (14.6)
7. Eddie Lacy, 227 (14.2)
8. Adrian Peterson, 224 (14.0)
9. Chris Johnson, 223 (14.0)
10. Reggie Bush, 220 (13.8)

No one's drafting Knowshon Moreno in the first round, so let's see the bigger picture. Over the last three seasons, which RBs have the most fantasy points? The chart below shows standard scoring, ½-PPR, and PPR. It's sorted by ½-PPR. I used 2010 instead of 2011 for Jamaal Charles; he missed 15 games in '11, so that wouldn't give an accurate gauge of his production.

Top-Scoring Fantasy RBs, 2011-13

It's really, really hard to justify drafting Adrian Peterson before Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Both those guys have had injury scares in the preseason, but neither sounds like anything to worry about going forward.

My most important strategy in fantasy football is not to blow the first pick. You chase upside in the later rounds. At the top of the draft, you need to take someone solid. If they have upside, too, that's terrific, but almost without exception, you can't win if your first pick is a bust. There are good reasons to believe in Peterson, and there are good reasons not to. I was hoping this research would provide a definitive answer, and it doesn't. But it makes me nervous.

In most formats, McCoy and Charles are my first two off the board — probably in that order, but I don't feel strongly about it. That's the way it will go in most leagues. Peterson is a realistic option in the 3rd-7th spots. Don't take him before that, and do take him if he's still available later. But what if you're in that mid-first-round position?

In a large league, 12 or more teams, you need to take a running back early. There won't be a lot of quality RBs left on the board 21st overall. Peterson, Matt Forte, and Eddie Lacy are all risks. Peterson didn't have a great 2013, and he's getting older. Last year was the biggest of Forte's career; he's likely to decline this season, even if he stays healthy. Lacy could be a one-year wonder. But if you're picking early in the first round of a big league, with Charles and McCoy off the board, you might have to take one of those guys. I'd probably go Forte, then Peterson, then Lacy or Lynch.

But in smaller leagues, 10 teams or less, I think I'd draft Jimmy Graham or Calvin Johnson. Those are low-risk, huge-upside, proven performers on pass-oriented offenses. And in smaller leagues like that, you can find productive RBs a couple rounds later. Moving on to non-Peterson matters...

Running Back

I didn't write earlier about Marshawn Lynch or DeMarco Murray, the other RBs who will go in the first round of most leagues. Lynch is the same age as Peterson, he's on a team with good young RBs, and he had a weird offseason. I'd draft him in the late first round (or early second for small leagues), but the upside is gone and the risk is growing. You draft Beastmode and just settle in with the idea he'll give you a top-10 season, and you'll win because you scored big in the other rounds. He's a relatively conservative pick. I worry about Murray staying healthy. He's got great upside, but I believe the risk is too big to use an early first-round pick on him. I don't think you can pass him up in the second round, but you'll want to handcuff with Lance Dunbar.

In eight-team mocks, I've been using back-to-back picks on Alfred Morris and Doug Martin, either as starters or as an RB2/FLEX combination. Morris is solid, a strong runner, and I expect him to see more goal-line touches this season. He is a lot less appealing in PPR. Martin was the 2nd-best RB in fantasy in 2012. There's some risk regarding playing time and health, so Martin shouldn't be your RB1, but he's got tremendous upside as an RB2 or backup.

I also like C.J. Spiller and Reggie Bush, though you should only draft one of them, since they have the same bye week. Bush and Joique Bell could be a sensible tandem at RB2/RB3 (or 3/4 in small leagues); they both figure to get touches, and if one gets hurt, the other should produce RB1 numbers. If you're drafting early and need a tiebreaker among Forte/Lacy/Peterson, consider that Forte and Lacy have the same bye week as Spiller, Bush, Bell, and Steven Jackson. Peterson shares his bye with Morris, Ryan Mathews, the New England guys, and Arian Foster, if you're into that sort of thing. Lynch shares his Week 4 bye with some promising runners, but no one I'm likely to draft this year.

In deeper leagues, Darren Sproles could be a good late-round pick. He's the handcuff for McCoy, and he should get touches in Chip Kelly's system even if Shady stays healthy. Chiefs backup Knile Davis is an appealing handcuff/lottery ticket toward the end of the draft.

Quarterback

There are three quarterbacks who clearly stand above the others: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. If you can't get one of them, that's okay — please don't use your first-round pick on a quarterback. There are 15 QBs I like this year. In most leagues, you should try to get two of them. A good backup QB is more important than your WR5 or kicker. Besides the three above, I like: Tom Brady, Jay Cutler, Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Russell Wilson. I don't have particularly strong preferences within the group, so I'd wait until there are only a few left on the board, then go for it, maybe even with back-to-back picks. Cutler is my least favorite, but the upside on that offense is undeniable.

Don't take the fourth QB of your draft. Or the fifth. The gaps in that second group aren't large enough that it's worth taking Newton four rounds earlier than Rivers, or Stafford way ahead of Wilson, or whatever. Don't miss the train entirely, but your patience in drafting this position will be rewarded.

Wide Receiver

Megatron is the clear top choice. A.J. Green is my second pick. I know people are choosing Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas ahead of Green, but I think that's a mistake. This is Bryant's fifth season; it's time to draft him on track record rather than potential. He's not a first-round pick. I love Thomas, but Denver's offense can't possibly produce at the same level it did last season. Green is my guy. I've been getting him in the second round of mock drafts and giggling from my keyboard.

Wes Welker recently suffered his third concussion in the last 12 months, but you might be able to draft him as a WR3, which could pay off without too much risk. I really like Emmanuel Sanders in the mid-to-late rounds. Peyton Manning's number three wide receiver is going to catch plenty of balls, and Sanders will get even more work if concussions become a problem for Welker. Do not, however, draft Sanders in the same position you would have drafted a healthy Welker. Sanders is a WR3 in most leagues.

For WR2, I've been targeting Randall Cobb, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jeremy Maclin, and T.Y. Hilton. Cobb will produce WR1 numbers if he and Aaron Rodgers are on the field together. Patterson was all-pro as a kick returner last season, and he's got really tremendous upside. No one seems to believe Maclin can stay healthy, but he's the top receiver for an explosive, fast-paced offense. If he's on the field, he'll be a monster. Hilton is just undervalued. He's going to catch 80 passes for 1,000 yards again. I also suspect that one of the Rams' wide receivers is due to blow up this year. Tavon Austin is obviously the favorite, but a last-round gamble on one of the others might yield real value. Sam Bradford's injury is a bummer but not the end of the world.

There are several potential deals on veteran receivers later in the draft, but the one that jumps out to me is Anquan Boldin. With Michael Crabtree healthy, he won't see the same number of targets he did last year. But Boldin was the 15th-highest scoring fantasy WR in 2013, and he's something like the 40th-ranked WR in average draft position, even though he's healthy. In leagues larger than eight teams, Boldin is a steal as your WR4.

Tight End

I really like having a good fantasy TE. It's always a position I target. I'm not sure I even have a good reason for it, but I like to get one of the top guys. Jimmy Graham is the clear first choice this year, and he should go in the first round of every league. My second choice is Julius Thomas. With Welker's availability in question, and Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno gone, there will be some extra balls to go around in Denver, and I expect Thomas to catch a lot of them.

I also like the idea of drafting Rob Gronkowski, who produces WR1 numbers when he's healthy, and supplementing with a strong backup. If Gronk stays healthy, your TE2 can play in the flex and you screwed someone else out of a starter. The absolute treasure at TE2, or a late TE1, is Washington's Jordan Reed. He got injured and missed the end of last season, but for the month before that, he was RG3's favorite target. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him catch 80 passes this season. I am not on board with Kyle Rudolph. I'd rather have Reed, Jason Witten, or Charles Clay. Miami's Clay is coming off a knee injury, but he's incredibly undervalued, a TE2 steal who will probably produce like a TE1.

Team Defense

My primary fantasy league doesn't use this position, so it's not something I follow closely, but my friend GG's league switched last year to an FAAB system. In that format, I'm all about playing the matchups. Figure out who's playing a bad offense, and spend $1 or $2 a week to pick them up. The Baltimore Ravens are my favorite early-season defense, because they get the Bengals at home in Week 1, and the Steelers at home in Week 2. I also like Carolina, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and New England for their Week 1 matchups.

The final word on Adrian Peterson: proceed with caution. Barry Sanders and Walter Payton are the only RBs in history to produce at an elite level again following a season like Peterson's 2013. Draft him understanding that the realistic upside is just a top-10 season, not another 2,000 yards. Even if Peterson hasn't lost a step — which is very optimistic — he plays on an offense that isn't expected to light up scoreboards, and he may not get as many touchdown opportunities as owners would like. Peterson also is a less appealing pick in PPR leagues, since he's caught fewer than 30 passes in two of the last three seasons. You shouldn't take him ahead of Forte, and I'd think twice before drafting AP if Jimmy Graham or Calvin Johnson is still available.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:21 PM | Comments (0)

August 25, 2014

Vetting the Replacements

For FBS schools across the land, a new college football season begins later this week. And with the new campaign, fans know that new names will emerge to provide storylines for our own pigskin appetites. Sure, some stars stay behind to provide a base of expectation. But for the ones that moved up, and on, from the college ranks, how will those gaps be filled?

That's something all coaches have to ask, whether leading their first recruiting class in a new location (Charlie Strong, James Franklin, Chris Petersen, Craig Bohl, etc.) or their 21st. I looked (arbitrarily) through some of the biggest transitions on the college scene and settled on a few that may deserve watching during the season (again, arbitrarily).

Quarterbacks

Last season belonged to Florida State's Jameis Winston. But despite the freshman leading the Seminoles to the program's third national championship (while picking up the Heisman to boot), the nation's most exciting player was the previous Heisman winner. Life after Johnny Manziel begins on Thursday night, when Texas A&M heads to South Carolina. And it will be up to sophomore Kenny Hill to keep the Aggies' momentum going.

The good news is that Kevin Sumlin has been through this situation before? Wasn't the shine supposed to dull for the coach when he left Houston and Case Keenum's eligibility behind?

This was quite the year for college quarterbacks. Several left their impressions, along with rather large gaps to fill. Blake Bortles, Aaron Murray, Connor Shaw, Teddy Bridgewater, and Tahj Boyd all left their marks. However, the one guy who basically carried his team's offense in his frame was Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch. He finished third in the Heisman voting. His arms and legs accounted for nearly 66% of the team's 7,277 yards (3rd in FBS). The reigns change hands over to redshirt junior Matt McIntosh. The new Huskies signal-caller will be hard-pressed to reproduce the success of the last two years (24-4 overall with an Orange Bowl berth). But who thought we'd be praising Jordan Lynch just two years ago?

Offensive Weapons

In today's NFL, offensive weapons are as important as hybrid linebackers or physically imposing corners. The running back that can pass catch or the wideout that can double as a kick return threat only add that much more value to a team's arsenal. Oregon's De'Anthony Thomas and Toledo's Dri Archer fit into the categories for this year's Draft class. However, nobody was as sought after as Clemson's Sammy Watkins. The dynamic junior is expected to pay huge dividends for Buffalo. But who might repay those dividends back at Clemson?

Without Watkins and Martavis Bryant, Adam Humphries is the leading receiver to return for the Tigers. But it might be redshirt sophomore Germone Hopper who receives the biggest benefit from the openings. Humphries will probably get the punt retuning duties, but we will find out who gets the chance to return kickoffs, and Hopper should be in the mix for that honor.

Last season, Blake Bortles was the name you thought of when it came to UCF. Okay, maybe it was coach George O'Leary first ... or that defensive unit before that, but Bortles was up there. However, don't forget about the contributions Storm Johnson made to the Fiesta Bowl champions. The tailback's 1,139 yards and 14 touchdowns provided offensive balance and sustained time-draining drives.

This season, O'Leary appears to look to William Stanback for those clock-chewing runs. The sophomore produced when he got touches last season (443 yds, 4.2 ypc, 6 tds as a freshman). It'll be interesting to see how much his opportunities increase with a new starting QB running the offense.

Defensive Front Seven

Jadeveon Clowney was a man in a college kid's body during his three years at South Carolina. Even though his production dropped during his junior season, Clowney was still physically dominant enough to be the top overall pick. Replacing him (whether through actual impact or imposed will) will be an ongoing process for the Ol' Ball Coach, and probably one that will require many efforts instead of one. Part of that accumulation falls of the shoulders of Darius English. He'll try to work with fellow sophomore Gerald Dixon to create a destructive pass-rushing duo. So, why did I choose English as the one to watch over Dixon? A little more similar in stature to Clowney ... that's all.

Khalil Mack probably wasn't on many radars two years ago. By the time 2014 rolled around, he rose to the level of "best prospective athlete" by some of us amateur scouts. And his senior-year stats only backed up the increased hype (100 tackles, 56 solo tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks). But, as good as Mack was last year, the cupboard wasn't left completely bare at the University of Buffalo. While the defensive line and backfield need to be re-stocked, the linebacking core is intact with three seniors leading the way. Adam Redden had an impressive junior-year stat-line of his own (65 tackles, 37 solo tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks in just 10 games). If he can improve on those numbers, Redden might find himself inching up the 2015 draft board.

Defensive Backfield

Louisville lost quite a lot from last season's team. I've already mentioned Bridgewater. Their leader also moved on (we'll get to that in a moment). However, a more subtle, and possibly more substantial, loss was not one, but both of their safeties. Calvin Pryor and Hakeem Smith made up the entirety of the AAC's all-conference first team safety core. Although we give more attention to the guys who cover the split ends of the football world, having talented and experienced defenders in the middle of the backfield is key to any above-average defense. There's not a lot of experience at safety, with no seniors available to step in on the roster.

Yes, replacing a quarterback is crucial. Yes, replacing a head coach is critical. However, if you have to rely on two pass defenders where four are necessary, your team could have some issues.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:14 PM | Comments (0)

August 20, 2014

Does Manfred Have a Vision Thing?

Baseball has a commissioner-elect, whose incumbent job is as Bud Selig's second-in-command (chief operating officer), and whose ascension to the top job has seemed all but assured since he was promoted to his current position in hand with Selig's retirement-to-be announcement almost a year ago. Sports Illustrated's Cliff Corcoran, writing of the election itself, said Rob Manfred's ascension "represents an unprecedented continuity in leadership for MLB." This is not entirely a consummation devoutly to be wished.

The good news begins with Manfred never having been a baseball owner. The not-so-good news is that he's been groomed by the first commissioner ever to have come into the job straight from the owners' ranks. And the questions that ought to be asked Manfred should begin with whether he believes the common good of the game is the same thing as making money for the owners.

It's a question the answers for which Selig would often have been stuck, when he wasn't replying with actions and policies that indicated he thought, "Yes," especially prior to the current long labor peace era. Three-division league alignments, wild cards, second wild cards, and season-long interleague play have filled the owners' vaults and fatted television reserves but not necessarily done the game many favors.

Consider, too, that Manfred may have been elected unanimously at last but he wasn't exactly the no-questions-asked universal favorite at the outset. It took several vote rounds for him to win. There was a faction, led by White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, opposing Manfred on the grounds that he's "soft" on labor, never mind that Manfred has been perceived as a significant key in baseball's decade-plus labor peace; Manfred was one of the major figures helping the owners and the Major League Baseball Players Association achieve three new collective bargaining agreements (2002, 2006, 2011) without strikes. (Which leads to the next piece of good news: Reinsdorf's influence likely being minimised irrevocably, after his opposition leadership may have infuriated his once-ally Selig.)

The current agreement expires in December 2016. Manfred will have almost two full years on the bridge when that occurs. And he will have issues with which to contend regardless. Herewith some questions he should be asked:

1) Bud Selig came from the ranks of the small-market owners. (Reinsdorf helped Selig purge Fay Vincent, whom they feared would obstruct their plans for a war with the players' union that led ultimately to the 1994 strike.) Yet he presided over a collective bargaining agreement whose limits on bonuses for international free agents and draft picks can be seen as throttling smaller-market teams who, as Corcoran phrased it, "might not be able to compete for established major league free agents (but) could instead overpay, in a sense, for amateur talent, allowing them to sign players who may have dropped in the draft due to signability issues and to stock their farm systems with premium talent" before the 2011 CBA.

How will Manfred propose to the owners and to the players that the limits on bonuses for amateurs and/or international free agents be adjusted the better to prevent such spectacular mishaps as the Astros' backfiring bid to lowball one prime pick (number one pitcher Brady Aiken) that cost them three prime drafts, all in a bid to game the system as it is now?

2) The incumbent agreement makes teams eligible for free agency compensation only if they extend qualifying offers to their free agents-to-be. The player rejects the qualifying offer; the team with which they choose to sign surrenders its top unprotected draft pick to the now-former team. As Corcoran said, "as the rigid slotting system and the move away from free agency and toward player extensions has increased the value of high draft picks, that extra cost of a top pick has had a deleterious effect on the market price of mid-range free agents." Not to mention the team the free agent leaves having that much extra juggling to do in cobbling together a competitive roster to come.

Would Manfred approach MLBPA director Tony Clark to suggest that, at long enough last, the owners' ongoing bids for free agency compensation, which have always done more harm than good to themselves and to the game itself, ought to be phased away, gradually but surely, considering that baseball's competitive balance has never been better than since the advent of free agency?

3) Two teams above all need new ballparks and the sooner the better. The sting here is that they're two of the best-operated franchises in the game in recent years. Manfred's been bought a little time since the Athletics — never mind how the unchecked foolishness of the Giants invoking territorial rights keeps the A's from moving slightly south — signed a 10-year lease to stay in a toilet known as O.co Coliseum. But the Rays have the dilemma of a viable park in a location so terrible that even their die-hards are hard pressed to go to games. What would Manfred propose to resolve both teams' stadium issues and with the least encumbrance upon local taxpayers?

(Corcoran nods to an intriguing prospect that might enable the A's to think about a complete O.co Coliseum overhaul: the Oakland Raiders, with whom they share the stadium, leaving Oakland again, this time for keeps, with Los Angeles and San Antonio considered strong prospects at this writing. Already there's talk that San Antonio is preparing to welcome the Raiders with open arms, never mind that the NBA's Spurs would oppose it, and that any Raiders overtures toward San Antonio are really intended to strong-arm Los Angeles into sweetening the proverbial welcome pot. The A's in theory could stand to make out big if the Raiders bolt town again, assuming Manfred can convince them to go for the overhaul. Such overhauls aren't unheard of, as anyone following the Angels can tell you.)

4) The Mess (er, Mets) have a problem other than on the field. Actually, the one problem has an impact upon the other: the swollen debt of the Wilpons just might compel them, dearly though they'd rather sacrifice their next generation to avoid it, to sell the Mets. The Mets' debt has kept the Mets' brass from much earnest franchise rebuilding and could, theoretically, have an impact on the Mets' current reported surplus of bright young pitching, on the parent club and in the system. Should a sale prove inevitable at last, how will Manfred shepherd a sale involving a team in the nation's largest baseball market with so prohibitive a debt load, and where will he reach to find buyers able to resolve the Mets' debt without keeping the team moribund for another term?

5) There are legitimate questions as to whether baseball government's actions in the Biogenesis investigation crossed ethical lines. Manfred may have worked closely with Selig and the players' union in helping the game shrink the presence of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances — after Selig, for long enough, turned and abetted blind eyes to their presence — but he was also involved in some of the dubious investigation moves. What will Commissioner Manfred do to ensure that the A/A-PED presence continues to shrink without entering territory that could create ethical and even legal headaches for baseball government to be? And what would he do, considering increasing sounds that the union itself wants to get a lot tougher on A/A-PED users — suggestions of contract forfeiture included — to join Clark in turning those sounds into viable, acceptable further policy?

6) Does Manfred have any thoughts about removing the foolishness of tying World Series home field advantage to the All-Star Game's outcome? Would he be willing to entertain ideas about neutralising the foolishness of the All-Star Game turning into a kind of lifetime achievement award rather than an exhibition of the game's best on the season at hand?

7) Does Manfred have any thoughts regarding the restoration of the World Series' true primacy? Interleague play prior to strong-arming the Astros into the American League had already compromised it. So had the seven-game League Championship Series. It isn't very likely that the owners would consider changing or removing the wild card system, which has often helped keep better teams out of the postseason. (No, the damn fools learned nothing much from the postseason hash that followed the 1981 strike.)

And there are no indications yet known that any owners would consider eliminating in-season interleague play, even if current whisperings about baseball returning to Montreal prove true. (You could return Montreal to the National League and move the Nationals — never mind possible Orioles screaming — to the American League, where Washington once had an ages-long presence.)

So, would Manfred consider proposing a best-of-three division series and returning the League Championship Series to a best-of-five, keeping the World Series a best-of-seven and, while he's at it, returning to alternating home-field advantage years that worked rather admirably for long enough, all things considered?

8) Baseball is rollicking through unprecedented prosperity with television abetting it mightily. Does Manfred have any thoughts about convincing television that it's not exactly good, either for television or for baseball, that postseason games and the All-Star Game don't begin until too many young fans aren't awake to see the games? Does he have any thoughts about something such as beginning the All-Star Game and the postseason games at, say, 6 or 7 p.m. Eastern time, the better to enable fans in the midwest and the west to watch and root? (And how about eroding at last the insane television blackout rules while we're at it?) The dollars are flowing but the ratings are flooring.

9) Once upon a time, baseball was reasonably expert at marketing its brightest stars. Today, so it seems, assorted football and basketball personalities are more identifiable to the general population than a lot of baseball's best who don't wear Yankee pinstripes. (And, strangely, some who do.) What would Manfred do to redress the matter so that, say, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Yasiel Puig, David Ortiz, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Altuve, Sonny Gray, Johnny Cueto, George Springer, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Harvey (when he returns), Yoenis Cespedes, Paul Goldschmidt (likewise), Bryce Harper, Felix Hernandez, and Masahiro Tanaka, are faces of the game above and beyond the game itself? Isn't it long past time for baseball to quit hesitating to amplify its best?

10) Selig said nothing when Joe Torre, player turned Hall of Fame manager turned baseball government executive vice president, tried to slap down the Dodgers' playful practice of blowing bubbles in the dugout whenever one of their own hits one out. (Or, when one of their own pitches a no-hitter, as Kershaw and Josh Beckett did.) It might rankle Torre (who once managed the Dodgers) but it sure as hell charms Dodger fans, and the opposition didn't seem to mind much. And aren't the fans worth something, even if they've helped make hash of the All-Star Game? Would Manfred be willing to slap his subordinates silly over such foolishness as Torre trying to strong-arm the Dodgers into turning off the bubble machine? (For the record: The Dodgers thus far have resisted Torre's scoldings on the matter. Thus far.) "This game's supposed to be fun!" Crash Davis admonished his fictitious Durham Bulls. Manfred would do well to remind one and all of that even in the thick of a pennant race.

11) While we're at it, will Manfred be willing to step in swiftly and surely to punish such effrontery as the Diamondbacks' declared bent on decapitation from the mound? (Randall Delgado at this writing has yet to be punished for drilling McCutchen in the ninth, a day after Ernesto Frieri pitched up and in to Goldschmidt and, quite unintentionally, broke Goldschmidt's hand.) Will he enforce the written (as opposed to the unwritten) rule that pitchers have twelve seconds to deliver a pitch after receiving a ball back from the catcher during an at-bat? Will he propose any kind of crackdown on players stepping out of the batter's box during an at-bat? And how about telling the teams and their stadium operators to quit showing commercials in parks between innings, the better to help convince television it'd be a nice idea to help move the games along by cutting back on the between-innings or pitching-change commercial spots? (It's a jaw-dropper of the most dubious kind to go to a game and see commercials ringing around the park while the teams change sides.)

Very well, a lot of what I'm asking kind of ties into the vision thing. When all was said and done, and for all his flaws, Selig was brilliant at the consensus thing when he set his mind to it, and Manfred was on the inside of that. Manfred will have time enough to think about such things before he takes his new job officially come January.

He's seen up close and personal the best and the worst of both his new employers and their employees who turn the turnstiles in the first place. (One bears in mind George F. Will's sage observation that nobody has ever bought a ticket to a professional sporting event to see the teams' owners.) Would he allow the recesses of his mind to make room for a vision thing next to the nuts-and-bolts thing?

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:34 AM | Comments (0)

August 19, 2014

NFL 2014 Week 1 Odds

It's preseason. The real opener is still a few weeks away. But sports betting is a huge industry, and some people can't wait to get started. Most sportsbooks have already posted lines for Week 1, so let's take a look. All comments below are for recreational purposes, and none should be interpreted as betting advice. This is not just a disclaimer — I mean it. It's too early for predictions, and a ton can change between now and the regular season. A key injury the last week of preseason, a trade, a suspension, a Pro Bowl tight end going to jail for murder ... you never know.

Green Bay Packers (+5½) @ Seattle Seahawks

From the Weird Coincidences Department: last season, the Packers were 5½-point underdogs in Week 1, on the road against an NFC West team that played in the Super Bowl. The Niners covered, and I believe Seattle will, too. The crowd at CenturyLink Field will be roaring, everyone's healthy, and the Packers have struggled to defend mobile QBs like Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson.

New Orleans Saints (-1½) @ Atlanta Falcons

They met in Week 1 last year, as well. The Saints won 23-17 in New Orleans. The Falcons are tough to evaluate right now. They went 4-12 last year, but they were rocked by injuries, especially to Pro Bowl wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones. The line on this game has flipped; the Saints opened as 1½-point dogs. Last season, New Orleans went 3-5 on the road. This game seems close to a pick 'em, and I would lay off, but gun to my head, I'd bet on Atlanta.

Minnesota Vikings (+6) @ St. Louis Rams

Adrian Peterson is still going first in some fantasy leagues. That surprises me. He was good-not-great in 2013, and he's getting old for a running back. He's still a first-rounder, but I can't see drafting him ahead of, say, LeSean McCoy. The Vikings have a lot of promising young players, but the Rams have even more; they're stacked from the RG3 trade. I think St. Louis is a serious dark horse for 2014, and by the end of the year they'll be a tough out. This early in the season, I'm not sure the system will be in sync yet. The line seems steep to me. Rams to win, Vikings to beat the spread.

The total for this game is 45. I like the under.

Cleveland Browns (+5½) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I refuse to discuss any of the Johnny Manziel hoopla in this space. The Steelers are re-building. The Browns are up-and-coming. Cleveland getting the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+11) @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are heavy favorites for a reason, but I don't advocate giving 11 points to anyone. I also don't advocate betting on the Jaguars, though, so maybe save your investment for other games.

Oakland Raiders (+5) @ New York Jets

Two teams that look to have improved in the past six months. People have made fun of the Raiders for signing so many older free agents, but these are guys who can still play. Matt Schaub should be a substantial upgrade at quarterback, but they've also beefed up their lines, added depth, and drafted Khalil Mack. The Jets have made some good moves, too, but I think five points is too much. I'll take the points: Raiders beat the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2½) @ Baltimore Ravens

Maybe the most important game of Week 1, between the likely contenders for the AFC North. The Bengals had a tumultuous offseason following Andy Dalton's disastrous performance in the playoffs, and the Ravens are really tough at home. This line seems about right to me.

Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Chicago Bears

The emergence of Alshon Jeffery and the health of Matt Forte made Chicago an offensive powerhouse in the second half of 2013. I'm curious to see whether that carries over to this season. The Bears are rebuilding their defense, so if E.J. Manuel and C.J. Spiller are firing on all cylinders, we could see both teams light up the scoreboard. The over/under is 48½. If you're feeling bold, bet the over.

Washington (+2½) @ Houston

Washington made some interesting moves this offseason, and everything except DeSean Jackson flew under the radar for some reason. Houston brought in Jadeveon Clowney and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Both teams had injury problems and QB issues last season, and both figure to play a lot better in 2014. Both teams have new coaches, as well, and it's tough to know what to predict in Week 1. I'd stay away from this line because of all the unknowns, but if I were determined to bet it, I might lean a little bit toward Houston. I'm excited to see what J.J. Watt and Clowney do together.

Tennessee Titans (+5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

I suspect Chiefs fans are in for a disappointing season, and Jake Locker looked impressive at times last season, but the Arrowhead mystique is coming back, and I'd be surprised to see Tennessee win this one. Chiefs, and the points.

New England Patriots (-4) @ Miami Dolphins

I never know what to do with New England in Week 1. The team always has a good season, and is a heavy favorite to repeat as the AFC East champion, but the Pats often seem to start slow. The Dolphins quietly had an interesting offseason, signing Cortland Finnegan and Knowshon Moreno, and the heat in Miami can cause havoc early in the season. This is another one I'd stay away from, but if I had to go one way or the other, I'd take the Pats to cover.

Carolina Panthers (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina had a really rough offseason, and the Bucs made a couple of nice moves to shore up weaknesses, signing QB Josh McCown and getting Alterraun Verner to replace Darrelle Revis. New head coach Lovie Smith has proven himself in the NFL. But I think the Panthers have enough left to win; I like them straight up, and probably by more than a point.

San Francisco 49ers (-5½) @ Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas defense is a huge question mark. Colin Kaepernick was up-and-down in 2013, but the Niners have surrounded him with weapons. Former Buffalo WR Stevie Johnson joins Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, and Vernon Davis in the receiving corps, and old lion Frank Gore is backed up by several promising young RBs. The Cowboys should be competitive in the NFC East this year, and 5½ is a lot for a road team that's not visiting Jacksonville, but this spread seems about right to me.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ Denver Broncos

In last year's playoffs, the Patriots rushed for 200 yards and 6 TDs against Indianapolis. If the Colts come out with three or four defensive backs, I'd look for Peyton Manning to test that run defense early. Seven points is a lot, and the Colts beat Denver last year, but at Mile High, with the crowd roaring and Manning doing his thing, I expect the Colts to struggle. Broncos cover.

New York Giants (+4½) @ Detroit Lions

The Giants have a new offense, in which, we're told, Eli Manning will stop being Eli Manning. The Lions' offense will probably still involve a lot of passes to Calvin Johnson. Detroit, straight up and giving the points.

San Diego Chargers (+3½) @ Arizona Cardinals

As of this writing, it's not clear how serious the injury to Darnell Dockett is, but it seems pretty bad. San Diego is my favorite bet in Week 1. I like them getting the points, and I think they win the game. They're +160 right now in the money line.

* * *

Super Bowl XLIX Futures

Despite that some of the entries above surely read as betting tips, that's really not how they're intended at this point. Most of the lines won't move much between now and the opener, and if they do, it will be for a good reason. Stay patient and lay your action when the time is right, if you're into that sort of thing.

But there's a difference between weekly point spreads and futures bets. I'm not excited enough about any of the front-runners to put my money there, but if you can afford to gamble on the long-shots, there are a few teams that seem undervalued. The Saints are +1400 or +1500, and that could be interesting. New Orleans made the divisional round of the playoffs two of the last three years, and the team that won their division last season isn't going to repeat. The Falcons are an appealing bet for sort of the same reason. They struggled badly in 2013, which put their odds at 65/1 in some places. There's more than a 1-in-65 chance that Atlanta can put everything together and win a championship. Long shot, to be sure, but the odds are too low.

The Bengals have made the playoffs three straight years, and they're probably favorites to win the AFC North. They're +3750 or so, depending on where you look. The Chargers are +4250, the Texans are +6500, and the Rams are +5000. San Diego made the playoffs last season and had a good draft. The Texans were a powerhouse from 2011-12, and now they have Jadeveon Clowney. Lay $100, and if they win the Super Bowl you're up $6,500.

The Rams are my dark horse this year, a team loaded with young talent. They could struggle in the stacked NFC West, but they're one or two breaks away from shocking the NFL. The 1999 Rams were one of the reasons I became a sportswriter. Recreationally, I wrote up preseason power rankings, with a paragraph or two about team. I picked the 49ers to win the NFC West that year, and the Falcons, coming off a Super Bowl appearance, to finish second. But I raved about the Rams' new additions on offense, Trent Green and Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt, and I guessed that the Rams would surprise people.

The Niners and Falcons were rocked by injuries, Kurt Warner emerged from an Iowa grocery store, and St. Louis won the Super Bowl. That's where we are this year. If Russell Wilson or Richard Sherman gets hurt, and Colin Kaepernick bombs or NaVorro Bowman goes on IR, look for the Rams to fill the gap. I don't believe they're a Super Bowl team, and I have real questions about the quarterback position. But at 50-to-1, it's a chance worth taking.

These are bets you know probably won't pay off, but the return is big if they do. Recreational purposes only, but in my extraordinarily humble opinion, New Orleans, Atlanta, and St. Louis are all undervalued right now.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:01 PM | Comments (2)

August 18, 2014

U.S. Open: Top ATP Players Out of Form

The two Masters 1000 tournaments that take place Canada and Cincinnati often give a solid indication of what is likely to take place in the U.S. Open, which starts one week often the end of the Cincinnati tournament. For example, last year, Rafael Nadal went on to win both tournaments, in Montréal and Cincinnati, and kept rolling through the U.S. Open all the way to his 13th Slam title.

If that trend holds true, in other words, if these two tournaments signal what is to come in New York, one message is clear: the top 10 players in the ATP are out of form, and it may just be the perfect opportunity for an outsider to earn his spot as a big-time champion. Stanislas Wawrinka did in the Australian Open, but he had to go through two of the world's best — Novak Djokovic and Nadal — in order to hold the Slam trophy.

Djokovic has had the most miserable two-week period of his career in a long time. He played close to terrible tennis, often looking like a novice on the court, missing silly balls and looking afraid to hit the ball. He played four matches, and he did not play above-average tennis in any of them. He admitted himself that the two weeks did nothing for his confidence and that he is heading into the U.S. Open without enough match play in the hard courts.

Rafael Nadal, due to his left-wrist injury, has not practiced in full capacity, nor has he played any hard court matches this summer. He still has not announced his decision to play the U.S. Open or not. Roger Federer is no doubt the most consistent top player on the tour this summer, however, as good as his results have looked during these two weeks, his tennis has been up and down. Even as he won in Cincinnati, he only played one great match from beginning to end, his semifinal win against Milos Raonic.

Stan Wawrinka did not make the semifinals in either tournament. After his win against Cilic in the third round of the Cincinnati tournament, he responded to a media member's question by saying, "I am glad I won, but I have to play much better to go further." He did not, and he was eliminated by Julien Bennetteau in the quarterfinals. Thomas Berdych is in a virtual free-fall since Roland Garros and risks being left out of the top 10 by the end of the year unless he recuperates quickly.

Andy Murray, meanwhile, still does not have a win against a top-10 player since Wimbledon 2012. Milos Raonic has been more consistent than other top-10 players, but still not playing at the level that got him to the semifinal round of Wimbledon. Another newcomer to the scene and the other semifinalist in Wimbledon, Grigor Dimitrov, made it to the semis in Toronto, but played dismal against Jerzy Janowicz in his early-round exit in Cincinnati. As for David Ferrer, although he did reach the final in Cincinnati, by his standards, he is having his most inconsistent year on the tour since, well, ages ago. If one considers that Kei Nishikori, Richard Gasquet, and Juan Martin del Potro have all pulled out of the U.S. Open, we can extend this list of out of form attribute to the players ranked in the top 15. Ernests Gulbis (13) and John Isner (14) are not exactly burning the barn, either.

Once the U.S. Open begins next week, it will naturally be hard to pick anyone outside the top 15 to win the tournament or even to get to the semifinals. Yet, if the players ranked in the 15-to-40 range closely consider the field with a cool head, they should be able to see that this U.S. Open may be their best opportunity to dig far in a Slam and earn valuable points. The big names are clearly not playing well, and an outsider who wants to make a run to the last weekend of the tournament, may not have to go through bunch of them to get there. Unless any one or more of the top players find their form quickly within the next week, the window of opportunity is there for one or more outsiders to have a career-building tournament.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 12:20 PM | Comments (0)

August 15, 2014

McIlroy, Woods, Nicklaus: Major Debate

As it stands now, Tiger Woods is four majors away from catching Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 majors, while Rory McIlroy is 14 away from matching Nicklaus.

Who has the better chance of equaling Nicklaus? Both? Neither? Only Woods? Only McIlroy? John Daly? Not Daly, of course. But speaking of Daly, any wise betting man would put his money on Nicklaus' record remaining safe. So, I guess that means Daly would bet on someone other than Nicklaus. Which is smart.

Assuming Nicklaus record is safe, what then is the most likely scenario of the following: McIlroy matching Woods at 14 majors, or Woods not winning another major?

Sure, McIlroy is on a roll now, having won the last two majors this season and three straight tournaments. McIlroy called off his engagement to tennis star Carolyn Wozniacki in May, an action which he credits with markedly improving his play. Does this mean McIlroy can't excel with women in his life, or that he can't excel with only one woman in his life? Apparently, McIlroy and Woods have this in common: they both need freedom from one woman to be successful at golf.

In the future, can McIlroy remain as dominant at golf and maintain a serious relationship? Woods tried to do both, and apparently succeeded. That is, until his wife discovered that the so-called "serious" relationship wasn't so serious to Woods.

What does this have to do with McIlroy's quest for majors? Very little, assuming he steers clear of the mistakes and poor decisions that hastened the downfall of one of the greatest golfers in history. If McIlroy can avoid asimilar epic crumble, is he a lock to reach 10, 14, or 18 majors? Of course not. Nothing is a sure thing. Woods matching Nicklaus was a sure thing back in 2009.

McIlroy will face obstacles, like injuries, slumps, bad luck, letdowns, etc. But overcoming those is a lot easier than overcoming a personal crisis of the magnitude of which Woods has dealt with. Would Woods wish that upon another golfer? No, but I would, just out of curiosity, to see how someone else would handle it.

What of Woods and his quest for just another major? Woods' problem is he's too motivated to reclaim the form that propelled him to 14 majors in 12 years. He often returns from injury too soon, and although he won't publicly state it, he hates to see success from a young golfer like McIlroy. And it eats at Woods even more when a golfer other than himself is mentioned as a threat to catch Nicklaus. Granted, that may be the same motivation that helped Woods win 14 majors. But then, Woods was on top, and his motivation was knocking golfers down before they even got close to his pedestal. Now, he's not on that pedestal anymore, and not even in position to be the one to knock down others.

So what can Woods do to get back on top? First of all, he doesn't need to get better, he needs to get healthy. In reference to his past sexual transgressions, he should sleep on it, not with it. 2014 was a very unhealthy year for Woods, with numerous back issues. Wisely, Woods has chosen to skip the Ryder Cup, a decision that makes sense physically as well as mentally for Woods.

Woods had a horrible year in majors in 2014, but was solid in 2013, with two top-six finishes. He was also named PGA Player of the Year in 2013. It's okay to say Woods won't win another major because it's your personal opinion. But to say that Woods isn't good enough to win another major because his play doesn't support the assertion is just plain anti-Woods rhetoric.

Right now, Woods isn't great. But he's good enough to win one major, maybe more. McIlroy certainly is. The biggest obstacle to winning more majors is one they both face: other golfers. Golf analysts often speak of "the best golfer never to have won a major." That list is as long now as it ever has been. And golfers are remaining competitive longer than ever. Nicklaus won the last of his 18 majors at the age of 46. Tom Watson was one short par putt away from winning the 2009 British Open at age 59.

To catch Nicklaus, Woods would have to do something incredible. To reach 14 majors, McIlroy would have to do something even more incredible. And even more so to reach 18. All are possible, but none are likely. Woods and McIlroy both probably feel good about their chances. Nicklaus feels the best about his.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 4:53 PM | Comments (0)

Basketball Needs to Quit Acting Like Soccer

It should come as no surprise to anyone who normally reads this site that I'm about to make the following statement: I absolutely love the NBA.

In fact, in spite of all its warts, it's probably my favorite pro sports league to watch at the moment. And the biggest reason for that is because the quality of play is so strong compared to 10 or 15 years ago. Some of that is attributable to a more watchable style of play, but most of it is because of the players, some of whom will be on display during the FIBA World Cup starting in a few weeks.

Sure, there's no LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Love, or, after this past weekend, Kevin Durant, on Team USA. But names like Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins, Damian Lillard, and Derrick Rose wouldn't at all look out of place on All-NBA teams. That's not even mentioning the NBA talent and future talent on other national teams.

Yet, I probably won't even watch a minute unless there's a Spain/USA championship game. Four years ago, I didn't watch at all when the U.S. defeated Turkey in Istanbul.

There seems to be a desire from both FIBA and the NBA to grow basketball into something as popular as soccer, as impossible as that may sound. After all, basketball is really the only inherently North American sport that can rival soccer from both an accessibility and a cultural standpoint. But moves like calling what was once the World Championship the World Cup just tell me that the powers that be in global basketball don't really understand how basketball will always be a "club over country" sport.

In soccer, the growth of the sport, largely due to the tentacles of the then-vast British Empire in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, meant that talent developed in various countries simultaneously and relatively equitably. It was really only natural to create a World Cup in that sport and various continental competitions. National team competitions have mostly always been and will forever continue to be important to the sport as a whole.

With basketball, the best talent has always been in America, and true international competition has only occurred in the last quarter-century. The Soviet Union and Yugoslavia may have won plenty of gold medals and world titles, but communism allowed those countries to work around the regulations of amateurism. However, as media and technology have improved and become ubiquitous, the rest of the world can now tune into to NBA games on any night at very short notice.

Still, for some reason, even though soccer only has a true global competition once every four years (I refuse to count the Confederations Cup if we're being literal here), basketball has one in all even-numbered years. If you're not familiar with the way a typical soccer season works in Europe, this is a sport that takes up to three or four two-week breaks in the middle of the August-to-May club season for players to join with their international sides. Tell me what Mark Cuban would think about that in the NBA.

You're probably thinking, or have thought, sometime in the last 500 or so words, "He wouldn't even be bringing this up if it weren't for the Paul George injury." That's completely fair, and 100 percent accurate. But sometimes it takes something bad to happen before the powers that be wisen up. It's exhausting enough for players, and the stressful for the league's teams, that many players are playing international games just after an NBA season reaching up to 110 games including playoffs and preseason, but it's nowhere near as bad as some international players have it.

If you're someone like a Dirk Nowitzki or Manu Ginobili, or any other NBA veteran that's not from the United States, your national team usually has to qualify for the competitions in the summers of the even-numbered years during the offseason in the odd-numbered years. And with those countries' NBA players likely to be key players for their national teams, it's that much more pressure on a player than say, Tyson Chandler sitting out when DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Drummond are there to fill in. So, there's the big possibility of star players effectively playing year-round every year under the current system, even after an NBA season.

I will grant you that a world championship of basketball is a good thing. But that's what the Olympics are every four years. A World Cup isn't needed, especially in a sport where international competition has never been the peak of quality or interest, and when player safety can be so endangered after a long season.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:39 AM | Comments (0)

August 13, 2014

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 22

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 11th at Watkins Glen after an untimely late caution cost him any chance of winning. He passed Jeff Gordon to take over the lead in the Sprint Cup points standings, and now leads Gordon by 4.

"Let me point out," Earnhardt said, "that at this point, points don't mean much. Have I made my point?

"It was a crazy day at Watkins Glen. A.J. Allmendinger proved that a one-car team can compete with the multi-car teams. Chances are that the 'Dinger' will be with a big-time team in the future. Instead of losing a ride, he'll be pimping one."

2. Jeff Gordon — Gordon won the pole at Watkins Glen but faltered late after electrical issues sabotaged his chances. He eventually finished 34th and now trails Dale Earnhardt, Jr. by 4 in the Sprint Cup points standings.

"There's only one word to describe how you feel sitting in a car suffering from electrical issues," Gordon said. "Powerless.

"The weekend started on a high note. I won the pole on my son Leo's birthday, and he couldn't be happier. And can you blame him? What other adolescent has a Coors Lite Pole Award in his bedroom? Besides Kurt Busch?"

3. Brad Keselowski — A promising start at Watkins Glen soured for Keselowski after brake issues relegated him to a 23rd-place finish, five laps down.

"I'd rather have trouble stopping," Keselowski said, "than trouble 'going,' which is a problem 72-year-old Morgan Shepherd deals with on a daily basis. At least that's what Joey Logano tells me."

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson had a solid finish in sight before a spin on a lap 80 restart sent him hurtling back in the field. He finished a disappointing 28th.

"Sunday's race was stopped twice so repairs could be made after accidents," Johnson said. "Chad Knaus radioed me during the delays and asked, 'How's the track look?' I replied, 'It's fixed.' And I fully expect that statement to be taken out of context."

5. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished ninth in the Cheez-It 355 at the Glen and remains winless on the year. He is third in the points standings, 70 behind Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

"Unless I can find a win in the next four races," Kenseth said, "I'll be starting at the bottom when the Chase For The Cup starts. Where my wins total is concerned, 'V' is for 'void.'

6. Joey Logano — Logano finished sixth at Watkins Glen, recording his 12th top 10 of the year.

"Allmendinger ran a heck of a race," Logano said. "I guess the competition was a lot like drug problems — he put it behind him."

7. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished fifth at Watkins Glen, posting his fifth top-five result of the year. He is sixth in the points standings, 115 out of first.

"I had a good view of the A.J. Allmendinger/Marcos Ambrose battle," Edwards said. "Allmendinger obviously knew the track well. He's certainly done his homework. There's probably only one circuit he knows better than Watkins Glen, and that's the road to recovery.

"It was a great day for the Cheez-It brand. They sponsored the race, as well as my No. 99 car. If the race in Sonoma is attended by the 'wine and cheese' crowd, then fans at the Glen should be called the 'wino and Cheez-It' crowd."

8. Ryan Newman — Newman crashed heavily with 34 laps to go at Watkins Glen, smashing a fence and causing the race to be stopped for over an hour while repairs were made. Newman finished 41st, 35 laps off the pace.

"Race officials raised more red flags than the Mayfield family," Newman said. "And I'm not happy with safety at the Watkins Glen track. It seems track official need a crash course in safety."

"My former teammate Rusty Wallace was recently inducted into the Motorsports Hall of Fame. I don't know who told Rusty to 'go to Hall,' but it sure as hell wasn't me."

9. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished seventh at Watkins Glen, posting his 11th top-10 result of the year.

"Was God on A.J. Allmendinger's side at Watkins Glen?" Harvick said. "It certainly looked that way. If He was, A.J. should change his name to 'Amendinger.'"

10. A.J. Allmendinger — Allmendinger repelled the challenges of Marcos Ambrose on two late restarts to win the Cheez-It 355 at the Glen. The win guaranteed Allmendinger a spot in the Chase For the Cup.

"Kimberly-Clarke Corporation renewed their sponsorship of my car," Allmendinger said, "making the weekend even more satisfying for car owner Brad Daugherty and myself.. Kimberly-Clarke produces the Kleenex, Scott, Viva, and Cottonelle brands, and that means Sunday was a great day for white paper and black hillbillies.

"Of course, this doesn't mean I'm a 'paper' champion. It does mean I'm well equipped to wipe up the competition."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:32 PM | Comments (0)

August 12, 2014

The Best and Worst of Times: NFL

This is an NFL column, but let's start in baseball. In 1999, Dante Bichette had the worst season ever by a player who drove in 125 runs. Coors Field in '99 was a shooting gallery, so Bichette's .298/.354/.541 batting line was barely average that year. He was the 3rd-best hitter on a team that lost 90 games. Bichette in '99 played some of the worst left field defense in the history of Major League Baseball (13 errors), and was a very poor baserunner. He knocked in 133 RBI because of the park and because he hit cleanup all year, with teammates who were always on base.

Weird stats like that interest me: the worst season with 125 RBI. The best by an NBA player who averaged single-digit scoring. The worst season by a running back who gained 1,000 yards. That's our mission here. In this article, we'll look at NFL quarterbacks and running backs.

Quarterbacks

Best Season By a QB Who Missed the Pro Bowl: Jim Everett, 1989 Los Angeles Rams

It is shocking how many quarterbacks failed to make the Pro Bowl following tremendous seasons. These aren't just potential snubs, there are 15-20 really stunning omissions. Just from the last few seasons, Aaron Rodgers didn't make the Pro Bowl in 2010 (when Green Bay won Super Bowl XLV), nor did Matthew Stafford in 2011 (when he became the 3rd player in history with 5,000 passing yards and 40 TDs in a season). Established stars aren't immune. In 1988, Dan Marino led the AFC in passing yards (by 862), tied for the conference lead in TD passes, and took sacks at the lowest rate in NFL history (6 sacks in 606 attempts, 0.98%). He didn't make the Pro Bowl.

It was agonizing to narrow this down to Everett. He ranked first or second in the NFC in passing yards, TDs, and passer rating. Everett threw for only 8 yards fewer than league leader Don Majkowski, he led the NFL in TDs, and he trailed only Boomer Esiason and NFL MVP Joe Montana in passer rating. Everett had also been a serious snub the season before, when he led the NFC in passing yards and TDs, and ranked 2nd in passer rating.

Honorable Mention: Steve DeBerg, 1990 Kansas City Chiefs

DeBerg passed for 23 TDs and only 4 INTs.

Worst Season By a QB Who Made the Pro Bowl: Jack Kemp, 1969 Buffalo Bills

First, I have to explain why this isn't Mike Boryla, of the 1975 Philadelphia Eagles. Boryla only started five games, and he threw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns (12-6), earning a 52.7 passer rating. I have no idea how he ended up in the Pro Bowl. But with the NFC trailing 20-9 in the fourth quarter, Boryla came off the bench to throw two TD passes and lead the NFC to victory. Kemp had no such heroics. He was elected to the final AFL All-Star Game on the memories of what he once was. In that season, Kemp was probably the worst full-time QB in either league. He threw 13 TDs and 22 INTs, with a 53.2 passer rating, and the Bills finished 4-10. Kemp retired after the season.

Honorable Mention: John Hadl, 1972 San Diego Chargers

If you want a more recent player, you might look at Vince Young as a rookie, or Brett Favre with the 2008 Jets.

Best Season By a QB Who Started the Year as a Backup: Randall Cunningham, 1998 Minnesota Vikings

Randall Cunningham left football after the 1995 season. Following a year out of the NFL, the Vikings talked him out of retirement, and it paid off when Brad Johnson got injured during the second game of the '98 season. Cunningham passed for 34 TDs and 10 INTs, leading the NFL in passer rating (106.0) and net yards per attempt (8.0). Cunningham took only 20 sacks, and tied for the fewest fumbles (2) of any QB. The 1998 Vikings went 15-1 and set a single-season scoring record.

Honorable Mention: Earl Morrall, 1968 Baltimore Colts

The Colts went 13-1 and Morrall was named NFL MVP. However, you could actually argue for another 1998 season: Vinny Testaverde with the New York Jets. He led the AFC in passer rating (101.6) and went 13-2 as starter.

Worst Season By a QB Who Started 16 Games: Dave Brown, 1996 New York Giants

There actually aren't a lot of really terrible seasons by quarterbacks who start every game. No matter how bad the backups are, at a certain point the starter has to get benched. Among players who met that standard, Brown's '96 season might be the worst. He passed for only 151 yards per game, yet he led the NFL in sacks (49 for 276 yards). He passed for 12 TDs and 20 INTs, with a passer rating of 61.3. Brown rushed for 170 yards but no touchdowns. He started only 13 more games in his NFL career.

Honorable Mention: David Carr, 2002 and 2005 Houston Texans

The '02 Texans were an expansion team, but by '05 Carr didn't have an excuse.

Best Season By a QB Who Rushed For 500 Yards: Randall Cunningham, 1990 Philadelphia Eagles

In NFL history, there have been 48 documented seasons in which a player passed for at least 500 yards and rushed for at least 500 yards. Fifteen of those were between 1933-51, all but one by single-wing tailbacks known more for their legs than their arms. The best of these seasons was Spec Sanders in 1947, when he passed for 1,442 yards and 14 TDs, while rushing for 1,432 yards and 18 TDs (both records at the time). The other 33 seasons were all after the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, by modern quarterbacks.

Twelve of those 33 are by Randall Cunningham or Michael Vick, and the standout is Cunningham's 1990 campaign. The Eagles' leading receivers were Keith Byars, Fred Barnett, Keith Jackson, and Calvin Williams. The leading rusher was Cunningham himself, followed by Heath Sherman. With basically no help from his offensive teammates, Cunningham passed for 3,466 yards and rushed for 942 (with an 8.0 average), scoring a combined 35 touchdowns against just 13 interceptions. He ranked 2nd in the NFL in net yardage (Warren Moon) and led the NFL in TD/INT differential.

Honorable Mention: Steve Young, 1992 San Francisco 49ers

Young passed for 3,465 yards, rushed for 537, and was named NFL MVP.

Worst Season By a QB Who Rushed For 500 Yards: Terrelle Pryor, 2013 Oakland Raiders

Maybe Terrelle Pryor will be a great quarterback one day. That day did not come in 2013. Pryor rushed for 576 yards and 2 TDs, which is good, but he also passed for 7 TDs and 11 INTs, with a 69.1 passer rating and a league-worst 10.2% sack percentage. If it's any consolation to Pryor fans, Cunningham's 1986 season wasn't much better (72.9 rating, 25.6 sack%), and he rebounded to have a great career.

Honorable Mention: Tim Tebow, 2011 Denver Broncos

The Broncos made the playoffs, but Tebow made Bobby Douglass look like Joe Montana.

Running Backs

Best Season By an RB Who Missed the Pro Bowl: LaDainian Tomlinson, 2003 San Diego Chargers

Tomlinson rushed for 1,645 yards, with a 5.3 average. He caught 100 passes, for 725 yards. And he scored 17 touchdowns for a 4-12 team. LT gained over 200 yards from scrimmage in each of the four wins, scoring six TDs in those games. Tomlinson was the best RB in the NFL, and it is criminal that he didn't make the Pro Bowl.

Honorable Mention: DeAngelo Williams, 2008 Carolina Panthers

Williams rushed for 1,555 yards, with a 5.55 average, and scored 20 TDs, most in the NFL.

Worst Season By an RB Who Made the Pro Bowl: tie in the 1980 AFC

Pittsburgh's Franco Harris rushed for 789 yards, 16th in the NFL and 7th in the AFC. He averaged 3.8 yards per attempt and finished the season with more fumbles than touchdowns. Oakland's Kenny King rushed for 761 yards — 20th in the NFL, 9th in the AFC, and 2nd on his own team. King was ineffective as a receiver, and he also fumbled more often than he reached the end zone.

Baltimore's Curtis Dickey wouldn't normally be a huge snub, but Dickey rushed for 800 yards, with a 4.55 average. He gained more receiving yards than Harris or King, scored 13 TDs (more than Harris and King combined), and fumbled only three times. Compared to Harris and King, Dickey was Jim Brown.

Honorable Mention: Sammy Winder, 1986 Denver Broncos

Winder scored 14 touchdowns, but he rushed for just 789 yards, with an average under 3.3. This on a John Elway offense whose opponents focused on stopping the pass.

Best Season By an RB Who Rushed For Under 1,000 Yards — 16 games: Charlie Garner, 2002 Oakland Raiders

One of four seasons in which a player gained over 900 yards as both a rusher and receiver; the others were Roger Craig in 1985 and Marshall Faulk twice. Garner averaged 5.29 yards per carry, scored 11 TDs, and didn't fumble all season.

Honorable Mention: Herschel Walker, 1986 Dallas Cowboys

Despite splitting time with Tony Dorsett, Walker averaged 4.9 ypc, gained 1,574 yards from scrimmage, and scored 14 TDs.

Best Season By an RB Who Rushed For Under 1,000 Yards — all-time: Steve Van Buren, 1945 Philadelphia Eagles

Van Buren led the NFL in rushing, tied the single-season TD record, and had the longest kickoff return of the season, a 98-yard TD. This was a 10-game season, and Van Buren was one of only two players to rush for over 500 yards. He gained 832. Van Buren averaged over 5.8 yards per carry, and his TD record stood until 1962, when it was broken in a 14-game season.

Honorable Mention: Lenny Moore, 1958 Baltimore Colts

Moore led the NFL in rushing average (7.3), gained 938 receiving yards, and scored 14 TDs: 7 rushing and 7 receiving. This was a 12-game season.

Worst Season By an RB Who Rushed For 1,000 Yards: Eddie George, 2003 Tennessee Titans

George carried 312 times for 1,031 yards. That tied for 15th in the NFL, so it wasn't an extraordinary accomplishment. Six players out-rushed George by at least 500 yards. He averaged 3.3 yards per attempt and scored only five TDs, on a team that made the playoffs.

Honorable Mention: Garrison Hearst, 1995 Arizona Cardinals

1,070 yards, 3.77 avg, 1 TD. Hearst fumbled 12 times.

None of this is meant to be earth-shattering — just interesting. Trivia is half the fun of being a sports fan.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:19 AM | Comments (0)

August 11, 2014

CFB 2014: Giving Away the Ending

Spoiler alert: the 2014 college football season will have a twist ending.

This January will be our first foray into a major college football tournament. For the first time in, well, ever, the participants in college football's national championship game will have won something in addition to the hearts and pens of voters to get there. There will be no more computer polls, nor will there be unintelligent discussion of those computer polls. And, maybe best of all, there will be honest-to-goodness meaningful college football on New Year's Day.

To be fair, we've strange endings. Just last year, we saw Auburn parlay the miracle of 4th-and-18 and a sudden-life field goal return to come within moments of a BCS title. We saw the 100th Rose Bowl populated by top-five teams from the Big Ten and Pac 12, except instead of Ohio State, Michigan, USC, or UCLA, they were Michigan State and Stanford. And there was no question they belonged there. We saw the Baylor Bears crowned Big 12 champs, only to be felled by Central Florida in a BCS bowl.

But we see the unusual every year; that's why we love college football. When raw, young players churn through dozens of programs, unusual is the norm. The final scenes of 2014 will be unpredictable, but don't be taken by surprise! Let me spoil the ending of the 2014 college football season in advance with these three absolutely, certainly, guaranteed-or-your-money-back outcomes for the end of this season.

1. The SEC champ will definitely play in the first College Football Playoff...

I know, not the riskiest prediction. But in theory, how many losses would the SEC champ have to have not to make the final four? I think only a fourth loss would definitely eliminate an eventual SEC champ from playoff contention.

For instance, what if Florida follows three season-opening wins by blowing a fourth-quarter lead to Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Then, still smarting from the loss, the Gators sloppily turn the ball over a handful of times on Rocky Top two weeks later, losing 19-16 at Tennessee. At 1-2 in the conference, Will Muschamp gives a fiery press conference that week and wrestles a live gator on the podium.

In the following six weeks, the inspired Gators beat LSU, Missouri, and South Carolina in the Swamp, as well as Georgia in Jacksonville, giving them the head-to-head divisional tiebreakers. Florida takes its confidence to Tallahassee in the last week of the regular season, and Florida State needs a last-second Jameis Winston Hail Mary to beat the Gators.

Encouraged by how they stood up to the 'Noles, Florida crushes Alabama in their rematch in the SEC Championship Game. With one of its losses being a close one on the road against the defending national champs and another avenged in the conference title game, doesn't that 10-3 Florida team make the playoffs in many scenarios? Would you want to be Oregon's Mark Helfrich or Wisconsin's Gary Andersen, pitching your 11-2 squad against them?

...while the Big 12 champ won't even get a sniff.

Sure, the SEC dominated the winning side of recent BCS title games, but the Big 12 was often in the discussion for the participation trophy, as Texas and Oklahoma each played in multiple BCS title games, and Oklahoma State prowled around it a few times. But not this year.

Oklahoma is the clear favorite to win the conference based largely on its thrashing of Alabama in last season's Sugar Bowl. And if Bob Stoops can bottle that performance for 12 games this season (and, don't tell him I said this, but Alabama's performance for his 12 opponents this season, as well), Oklahoma won't sweat a single fourth quarter.

The problem here, obviously, is that we often fall in love with bowl performances. Just a year earlier in the same bowl, Louisville thrashed a mildly interested Florida team. That result drove plenty of preseason buzz for the Cardinals who responded by stumbling forgettably through the unimpressive AAC. It's almost as if that Sugar Bowl performance came from a different season!

The Sooner and Cardinal coaches and players deserve plenty of credit for beating good SEC teams in the conference's pet bowl. They beat the teams put in front of them, and had they lost, they likely would not have been excused for a lack of interest.

But for Oklahoma to earn a playoff spot, they will need Trevor Knight to reproduce that Sugar Bowl performance for most of the season rather than the less effective performances that dotted the rest of 2013. With Baylor and Oklahoma State appearing consistently competitive and Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas State all poised to improve, I see a conference that spread losses among its members, including the Sooners.

2. Jameis Winston will have better stats, but not repeat as the Heisman Trophy winner.

At this point, the wait for another two-time Heisman winner feels very much like the wait for the next Triple Crown-winning horse. We've had some great candidates, odds-on favorites even, but we've been burned so many times.

On first glance, Jameis Winston looks like the ideal candidate to join Archie Griffin in Double Heisman land. Winston plays quarterback for a high-profile national title contender, has a sparse injury history, and should have enough talent around him to prevent teams from game planning aggressively against him. His schedule has enough marquee games (Oklahoma State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Florida) to get Winston national attention yet is soft enough that he should be able to improve on his 2013 stats.

And yet, there are those crab legs. You may remember Winston was busted for inexplicably shoplifting crab legs from a Publix in Tallahassee this off-season. While the incident looks like the kind of light-heartedly dumb thing a young lunkhead might do, at least some portion of the Heisman voters will connect it to the entirely not light-hearted sexual assault allegations that swirled around Winston last season.

College football, given its small sample sizes and complex program hierarchy, makes the search for apples-to-apples comparisons difficult. This drives interest and debate across the sport, but it also complicates evaluating players and teams under single sets of criteria. More than any sport, college football has to rely on narrative.

Unfortunately, narrative can be an opaque witch's brew of ingredients. And for some Heisman voters, nebulous "character" assessments are major components of their recipes, the rogue spice that overwhelms otherwise reasonable judgment. Call it the Manziel Effect.

All of which is to say, some Heisman voters will be motivated to find compelling reasons not to vote for Winston. Between that and voters' tendency to prefer a fresh winner, I don't see Winston winning again.

(On a side note, I've never understood how the crab leg story was allowed to run its course. I've lived in two major college towns, each bigger than Tallahassee, and I'm positive a reigning Heisman trophy winner who pilfered a small amount of produce would have at least been given the opportunity to return or pay for the items. I'm not saying this double standard is fair, but do you think Peyton Manning would get a speeding ticket in Denver?)

3. The semifinals sites will cause handwringing.

The playoff selection committee has been pretty vague about how it will choose teams for its inaugural College Football Playoff. Its website gives lip service to strength of schedule, common opposition, and conference championships, but it leaves the interpretation open enough to allow committee members plenty of space in choosing teams.

However, one thing it is fairly specific about is the assignment of the semifinal sites. In each playoff year, the committee will be able to pair the two semifinal games with the two host sites in that year's rotation. This may seem like a formality, but the examples given illustrate a slippery slope. For example, this year's sites are the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl, the former being UCLA's home stadium while the latter is an informal home for LSU. In cases where UCLA or LSU is seeded third or fourth, the committee explains, it would be unfair for them to play a higher seeded team as a virtual home team. They call this "geographical disadvantage."

I can appreciate the sentiment here. The committee is largely modeled after the NCAA basketball tournament's selection committee, and geographic placement is an underrated responsibility that group must address as it builds its postseason. And yet, I think the football committee underestimates just how petty college football coaches can be if they think avoiding obvious geographical advantages for the No. 3 and 4 seeds will be enough.

Using this year's sites as an example, wouldn't teams built for a slower pace, like Stanford or Michigan State, prefer to play up-tempo opponents on the natural grass of Pasadena rather than the artificial surface in New Orleans? And, given the SEC's historical ties to the Sugar Bowl or the Big Ten and Pac 12's to the Rose Bowl, is there a logistic advantage for teams from those conferences who have recently played at those sites?

And what about the list of sites in general? Most bowls are held in the South or Southwest, a logical choice for December and January. But by definition, isn't that a disadvantage for teams from the Big Ten or Pac 12?

These games have to be played somewhere, and knowing this crowd, someone is going to be unhappy about just where that somewhere is. I give the committee credit for identifying a potentially obvious complaint, but this is going to be an issue no matter how considerate they are. That's how it always ends.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:16 AM | Comments (0)

August 8, 2014

Foul Territory: Quarterback "Busts"

* It's Not the "U," It's the "P," or "Aye" of the Hurricane — The University of Miami suspended quarterback Kevin Olsen for the Hurricanes season opener for failing a drug test. Olsen is suspected of using an illegal booster.

* The Packers Texted Favre a Picture of a Bust, and He Responded With a Text of His Own, or There's a Thaw in the Frozen Tundra — Brett Favre will be inducted into the Green Bay Packers Hall Of Fame and have his No. 4 retired on July 18, 2015. Apparently, Favre's head will be something his word could never be — cast in stone.

* Whole Lotta Love, or Quite a Decision, or if This Team Gets Anymore Loaded, They'll Have to Take a Drug Test — The Minnesota Timberwolves have agreed in principle to trade Kevin Love to the Cleveland Cavaliers for 2014 No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins, 2014 No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett, and a protected 2015 first-round pick. It's proof that the team has anything but a "cavalier" attitude about winning the NBA championship.

* Nine Digits? That's Nine More Than You Need to Count His Playoff Wins, or Even For a Bengal, That's a Lot of Scratch — The Cincinnati Bengals signed quarterback Andy Dalton to a six-year contract extension worth $115 million. Observers noted that the only difference between "payoff" and "playoff" is an "L."

* Ironically, His "Rep" Precedes Him — Johnny Manziel took all the reps with the first team in the Cleveland Browns practice on Monday. In true Johnny Football fashion, he took all the attention, as well.

* Is This Some Kind of Bust? No, Those Are Your Bitch Tits, or Your Asterisk is Mine! — Tony Bosch, founder of the Biogenesis lab, surrendered to DEA agents and will plead guilty to conspiracy to distribute anabolic steroids. When asked to comment, former client Alex Rodriguez said he expected the case against Bosch to be a home run.

* Ocho Sink-O, or He's Got 8 Games to Get His Piss Together — Cleveland Browns expect wide receiver Josh Gordon to be suspended for only eight games, not the one year suspension that was a distinct possibility. For the embattled Cleveland receiver, a 16-game suspension would have been hard to digest, and even harder to inhale.

* Cary, Cary, Why You "Buggin'?" — Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Cary Williams said he stands by his opinion that the New England Patriots are "cheaters." The Patriots laughed off the accusation, but said they'd be "watching" Williams.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:17 PM | Comments (0)

In Arizona, If You Can't Beat 'Em, Drill 'Em

As of this writing I'm still waiting for baseball government to hand down discipline over last weekend's nonsense between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Pittsburgh Pirates. I can't help thinking I'm going to have a long wait.

The Diamondbacks seem seem far more interested in retribution and frontier justice than in winning baseball games. The Pirates' pitching philosophy that the strike zone doesn't range from the middle of the plate outward seems to offend even reluctant defenders of the Diamondbacks' vigilantism.

Last weekend, when Paul Goldschmidt got hit inadvertently by a tight inside ninth-inning pitch, causing a season-ending fracture, and Andrew McCutchen got drilled in ninth-inning retaliation the following night, the Diamondbacks' unapologetic eye-for-an-eye philosophy had most of even their most stubborn fans beginning to wonder aloud whether their own team was getting away with murder.

Nobody can say we weren't warned that the Diamondbacks' policy was going to get worse and more surreal before it got better. And this struggling team, whose season is lost, whose general manager made ostentatious off-season pronouncements that it would be an eye for an eye from now on no matter what, may be in the paradoxical position of manning up into a reputation for cowardice.

I've seen the replays as often as some people watch I Love Lucy reruns even now. There's as little legitimate question that Pirates reliever Ernesto Frieri wanted anything but to injure Goldschmidt, which Goldschmidt himself noted in the aftermath, as there is that Diamondbacks reliever Randall Delgado, presumably but not yet confirmably on direct orders, had placed a target on McCutchen's back.

In spring training, Wade Miley drilled Colorado bellwether Troy Tulowitzki in retaliation for a raw minor leaguer, Tommy Kahnle, "a 23-year-old with no experience above Double-A who has never appeared on a top prospects list and who has next to zero chance at making the Rockies club out of camp," as Jack Moore of TheScore.com phrased it, hitting freshly-minted Diamondback Mark Trumbo with a pitch. The Diamondbacks lost their option of plausible denial from the moment general manager Kevin Towers began waxing about eye for an eye last winter.

First, Towers dumped mild-mannered pitching coach Charles Nagy after the 2013 season, apparently because he believed Nagy wasn't teaching enough frontier justice — in a season in which the Diamondbacks hit 60 batters while only 43 of their own batters were plunked. Remember the brawl provoked when then-Diamondback Ian Kennedy zipped one into Dodger star Yasiel Puig's nose? After another Snake, Cody Ross, was plunked inadvertently? And before Kennedy coned Zack Greinke on his helmet flap? During the scrum Nagy appeared to be playing peacemaker. Nagy's firing occurred a winter after the Diamondbacks unloaded a small truckload of talent they perceived as not being (ahem) tough enough.

Barely letting Nagy's firing sink in, Towers laid down the law: "I think come spring training, it will be duly noted that it's going to be an eye for an eye and we're going to protect one another. If not, if you have options there's ways to get you out of here and you don't follow suit or you don't feel comfortable doing it, you probably don't belong in a Diamondbacks uniform."

Well, now. The fun only began with Miley vs. Tulowitzki. It merely continued when Evan Marshall zipped Milwaukee's Ryan Braun, loading the bases, during a set in which Kyle Lohse drilled a pair of Snakes in retaliation for Gerardo Parra's getting plunked. Jonathan Lucroy returned the message in the best way possible, following Braun's drill with a grand slam. But those making close notes of such things noticed the Diamondbacks let their lesser lights do their dirty work while Lohse took care of business for the Brewers in that set.

Come August 1, a fine Friday night, Goldschmidt got hit and Frieri made a point of saying after the game that, considering his swollen ERA, the last thing on his mind was putting anybody on base. You can't blame the Diamondbacks for lamenting Goldschmidt's loss, even in a lost season. But even Goldschmidt understood that with the Pirates holding a five-run lead at the time they weren't about to try putting a charge into the other guys, a nuance the real headhunters never seem to get.

Apparently, the Diamondbacks didn't get that memo from their general manager or anyone else. And the Pirates went into the following day's game expecting someone to go down in retaliation, perhaps their defending National League MVP center fielder. It's the old code. You got the other guys' best hitter, don't be surprised if you get a message sent by way of your own best hitter. Indeed, McCutchen himself went into the Saturday game expecting to take one for the team and fast enough.

What he and the Pirates didn't expect was the Diamondbacks to take all game long, until they were behind by four in the ninth inning, before Delgado fired that 95 mph pitch right into McCutchen's back. Not on the first pitch, a fastball inside. Not on the second pitch, a slider down and away. On the third pitch. Even the Diamondbacks' broadcast team, watching it replayed several times, swore Delgado threw into McCutchen's back deliberately and that it demanded suspensions.

But if you're going to drop the other team's leading hitter after your leading hitter got drilled the night before, why on earth do you wait all game long to do it when you're already in the hole deep enough? The Outside Corner's Jaymes Langrehr put it squarely on the Snakes, their manager Kirk Gibson, and the apparent organizational philosophy under which no pitcher unwilling to "protect his teammates" would remain on the roster very long no matter the circumstances or the lack of true justification.

Langrehr noticed a pattern that ought to be sobering even for those recalcitrants among Diamondback fans who've been flooding the Net trying to paint the Pirates as the bad guys. "[The Diamondbacks] only seem interested in Protecting Their Own when they're losing," Langrehr writes.

"Luckily for them, they've been doing that a lot this year — only the Rockies (a mess in their own right) and the Cubs (actively trying to be bad) have done worse in the National League. When they hit a batter, Arizona is 8-20 this year. The only time they tried to score tough guy points in a close game, they hit Ryan Braun (for using PEDs against them in the 2011 playoffs) to load the bases, only to have Jonathan Lucroy hit a grand slam on the next pitch...

"Waiting until a game is out of hand to throw at somebody? That's being a coward. Using rookies, career minor leaguers, and generic relievers to throw at guys because you don't want somebody important getting suspended? That's being a coward. Intimidating those rookies and minor leaguers into throwing at guys because they fear for their roster spot if they don't? That's being a coward."

Baseball's worst kept secrets include this year's Pirates' pitching staff using the entire strike zone, not just the outer half. About that much the fumers among the Diamondbacks' fans are right. (One such beauty went so far as to suggest the Pirates should be banned from pitching to the inside half of the plate until other teams catch up to their total hit batsmen.) The bad news is that pitching inside will produce a plunk now and then. But the good news is that, most of the time, if you know what you're doing, you're not trying to hit the batter.

The Pirate staff may have a few control issues, but theirs isn't a staff full of Vicente Padillas. Last seen pitching in Japan, Padilla pitched his way out of Texas (and perhaps other places) after one too many instances of drilling opposing hitters and putting his teammates in near-constant fear that they'd be drilled back. Padilla even stamped the ticket irrevocably when he was seen laughing on the Texas bench after the respected Michael Young was drilled in no-questions-asked payback for a no-questions-asked Padilla duster.

McCutchen batted in the first inning August 2 with a man on (Josh Harrison opened the game with a line double) and one out. Allowing that both teams were warned before the game about any rough stuff, Arizona starter Chase Anderson could have done double duty as McCutchen stepped in to hit. Pitchers looking to send a message know how to do it despite the warnings, leaving nothing but doubt about intent. Anderson could have sent the Pirates the "message" and set up for a double play with just such a smart inside pitch.

Anderson got his double play setup — walking McCutchen on five pitches, none of which got anywhere near hitting the center fielder. Then he struck out the next hitter and got the man after that to ground out to the left side.

Harrison put the Pirates on the board in the third with a one-out bomb down the left field line. McCutchen batted one out later and grounded out. Again, nothing came even close to hitting him. The next time McCutchen batted was in the sixth with one out and the game tied at one. (The Diamondbacks tied it on an RBI single through the hole at second in the fifth.) He slashed a base hit to right.

By the time McCutchen batted again, in the eighth, both teams were well into their bullpens and two Pirates were on with nobody out. McCutchen broke the tie with an RBI single and the Pirates went on to enjoy a four-run inning sending eight men to the plate. And again no pitch came anywhere close to McCutchen's body.

Then came the ninth. Then came Delgado following an opening ground out with a walk (Harrison) and a line drive double (Gregor Polanco) setting up second and third. You might think about loading the bases to set up plays anywhere, of course, if you didn't have Ike Davis (erstwhile Met power hitter) following McCutchen in the lineup. Ball one. Ball two. Then came the payback pitch, right in McCutchen's back.

Bases loaded. Delgado stepping off the mound and heading for his dugout at the moment McCutchen's back met the ball, almost as though he didn't wait for the ejection that came just about the moment McCutchen bent over in pain. Then McCutchen slammed his bat into the ground in obvious rage, until Pirates manager Clint Hurdle urged him to first base.

Down 5-1, either Gibson or Delgado on his own decided that that was the "safe" moment to get McCutchen as payback for Goldschmidt. Eury de la Rosa relieved Delgado and promptly struck out Davis. But the Pirates let the Snakes know just how safe it wasn't. Russell Martin lashed an RBI single. And Brent Morel followed with a two-run single. Frieri would come in to work the Arizona ninth and manage to close it out despite David Peralta's two-run homer.

Never mind yet another Diamondbacks loss. By God they'd shown the Pirates who the men were around here. When McCutchen grabbed his left side jogging toward first base the following day after hitting a sacrifice fly, first it was feared he'd injured an oblique muscle and that it might have ties to the Saturday drilling. It turns out the cartilage binding a muscle to a rib was torn. That could cost McCutchen six weeks — and the Pirates a lot more in a tight National League Central race — but it may not have been caused by Delgado's deliberate fastball.

It seems surreal to imagine the Diamondbacks' (we use the term loosely) brain trust congratulating Delgado in the clubhouse for manning up on McCutchen with a four-run Arizona deficit in the ninth. But surely there were those who had such an imagining. What does baseball government imagine to be the way to put the headhunting Snakes in their place? And when will they imagine it?

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 2:51 PM | Comments (1)

August 7, 2014

Coarses of Higher Learning

Has the world of college basketball coaching completely shifted? Some say it's more humane. Some say it's becoming too soft. Whatever side of the fence you stand on, there's no question that the tide has shifted, as is seen through yet another example.

On Tuesday, College of Charleston fired Doug Wojcik after an investigation the school signed off on was released. In it, Wojcik allegedly used verbal abuse to coach/motivate/improve his team. In the wake of the Mike Rice scandal, Wojcik's reported tactics may not have been that bad. But in the wake of how we (as a society) look at that sort of alleged behavior, Wojcik wouldn't come out smelling like a rose, either.

Do I hope that this country becomes even more tolerant than it is now? Absolutely. But I also won't type here and tell you that I'm destined for Sainthood when I die. I'm far from that.

I do know that there were successful coaches in that past that did apply a more "tough love" approach. The prime example is Bobby Knight. In the process of winning three titles at Indiana, no one mistook his demeanor as "cuddly" or "warm and fuzzy." John Chaney led a school to a Division II title before getting Temple to five Elite Eight appearances. However, his 1994 post-game threat to John Calipari and 2005 "goon" move will forever be in his highlight reel. These are just two examples of men who coached the game, and their players, hard. And, only a decade later, probably wouldn't last three years on a present-day bench.

There are the "flip-sides" to Knight and Chaney. The most decorated coach of all-time, John Wooden, never appeared to have any angry tones in his body. While Jerry Tarkanian had many problems on his watch, was one of them behaving "boorish" towards his players? And, sure, Mike Krzyzewski has been known to berate the refs on occasion. But does that ever flow over to his practices? Not that I've heard.

So, where do we draw the line? What's the happy medium? Is grabbing a player by the arm (to make a point or correction) wrong? Is cursing wrong? Is yelling wrong?

Let's get this straight. There are many ways that a coach can undermine or undercut their players. Some people can handle the "tough love" approach, while others just can't. But where that leaves the college basketball coach is anybody's guess. It's a new age, folks. And, just as we all have to adjust to those new ways of living, some coaches might need to adjust before their tactics die out.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

August 6, 2014

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 21

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt used a no-tire pit stop to take the lead and subdued the challenge of Kevin Harvick down the stretch to win he GoBowling.Com 400 at Pocono. The victory completed Earnhardt's season sweep at the "Tricky Triangle" and was his third win of the year.

"That's the first season sweep at Pocono since Denny Hamlin's in 2006," Earnhardt said. "Normally, I would celebrate with a broom, but I can't. I developed an aversion to brooms when I discovered that Teresa Earnhardt rode them.

"The fans of Junior Nation will certainly party. I'm not sure they're that into bowling, though. They couldn't tell you anything about PBA, but they sure know a lot about PBR."

2. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led a race-high 63 laps at Pocono but fell victim to lack of track position and some untimely cautions, finishing sixth. He remains atop the Sprint Cup points standings with a 17-point lead over Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

"Junior's No. 88 car had the name 'Michael Baker' all over it," Gordon said. "That had to be a new experience for Earnhardt. It's not often people see the No. 88 car and have to ask, 'Who is that?'"

3. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski survived an unlucky day at Pocono, salvaging a 23rd-place finish, one lap down to the leaders. Keselowski damaged the No. 2 Miller Lite Ford with after contact with Kurt Busch on lap 2, then was an unwilling participant in the lap 117 "Big One."

"Thanks, Kurt Busch," Keselowski said. "Just like the last race at Pocono, I had a run-in with a 'piece of trash.'"

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson suffered two blown tires, the last of which sent him into the wall, ending his day at Pocono on lap 111. He finished 39th, 49 laps down.

"We've had our share of tires issues this season," Johnson said. "It's not a big deal to us. That's called 'under-inflating' the severity of an issue, just the opposite of what Goodyear thinks.

"We've finished 39th of worse in three of the last five races. But don't count us out once the Chase starts. Chad Knaus has a lot of things up his sleeve, including a sandbag of tricks."

5. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth was collected in a lap 117 pileup triggered when Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin got loose, causing Brian Vickers to check up and create mayhem behind him. Thirteen cars were involved in the accident, and Kenseth finished 38th.

"It was the GoBowling.com 400," Kenseth said, "and I'd like to pin the blame on Hamlin. But congratulations go to Dale Earnhardt, Jr. He deserves to celebrate, not in Victory Lane, but in Victory Alley."

6. Joey Logano — Logano led 30 laps and posted a strong third-place finish at Pocono, earning his eighth top-five of the year. He is seventh in the points standings, 124 behind Jeff Gordon.

"Richard Petty was the grand marshal for the GoBowling.com 400," Logano said. "In the Poconos, they call that being the 'King of the Mountain.'

"I've always had a ton of respect for Petty. Now I've got even more after realizing he raced against Morgan Shepherd for over 20 years and lived to tell about it."

7. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished a disappointing 29th at Pocono as Dale Earnhardt, Jr. raced to the win. He is eighth in the points standings, 139 out of first.

"I'm going to blame this on a preoccupation with thoughts of where I'll be driving next year," Edwards said. "As was evident at Pocono, my mind was racing, but I wasn't."

8. Ryan Newman — Once again, Newman was solid for Richard Childress Racing, taking eighth in the GoBowling.com 400.

"It was an otherwise tough day for RCR," Newman said. "Austin Dillon finished 15th, while Paul Menard finished 33rd, under Tony Stewart's No. 14 after that big wreck on lap 117. I hear it's no fun looking up and seeing Stewart on top of you. But at least Tony was awake."

9. Kevin Harvick — Harvick chased Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for three laps after the final restart at Pocono, but couldn't get around the No. 88 car. Harvick settled for second, his fourth runner-up finish of the year.

"After a pit road speeding penalty and damage from the lap 117 wreck," Harvick said, "I was 'Happy' to be in that position."

10. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished fourth in the GoBowling.Com 400, boosting his Chase For the Cup chances with five races left until the playoffs. He stands ninth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 140 out of first.

"No team needs a win more than Michael Waltrip Racing," Bowyer said. "I think all we need is a lively pep talk from Michael. And I think that should work. Everybody knows Michael makes a great cheerleader."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

August 5, 2014

Does the NFL Take Domestic Violence Lightly?

The National Football League has come under a lot of heat for its two-game suspension of Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice. In February, Rice had an altercation with his then-fiancée (now wife), Janay Palmer, which ended with Rice knocking her unconscious and dragging her body out of an elevator. Rice was indicted on a charge of third-degree aggravated assault. Video of the incident became publicly available and widely watched. Last week, the NFL responded by suspending Rice for two games.

Public reaction has been negative and loud. A two-game suspension makes it seem like the NFL doesn't consider domestic violence a serious offense. It's easy to look at four-game suspensions for Adderall or marijuana use and conclude that the league considers smoking weed to be worse than KO-ing your girlfriend.

The PR has been devastating for the NFL, which has attempted to reach out to women in recent years, especially with its support of Breast Cancer Awareness month. Here's the thing: for the women I know, domestic violence is a much bigger issue. Well, maybe I should re-phrase that. Everyone takes breast cancer seriously. Most of us know someone who's been affected. But taking a stand against cancer is easy. Nobody supports cancer. The NFL has raised a lot of money for research, but it hasn't really gone out on a limb. It promotes Breast Cancer Awareness month and sells pink jerseys. That's not nothing, but it doesn't make Roger Goodell into Susan B. Anthony.

Most of us know someone who's been affected by domestic violence, too, but many people do not see it as a serious problem. It doesn't always resonate the same way cancer does. Breast cancer transcends sex and gender, but domestic violence is still a women's issue, and men's support for domestic violence or birth control issues are much more indicative of their feminist leanings than the degree of their opposition to breast cancer. The cancer issue is only moving in one direction, and most of us can't directly do anything about it — it's in the hands of the scientists. Domestic violence is something everyone has the power to initiate, and there are more avenues for people who care to make a difference. This one incident, appearing to take domestic violence lightly, has caused more ill will toward the NFL than a thousand pink jerseys can overcome.

Did the NFL screw up? Yes, clearly. From a practical standpoint if nothing else, suspending Ray Rice for two games was a massive error. The league would have been better off issuing no punishment than one perceived as a slap on the wrist. The suspension made headlines. Doing nothing was actually a better PR option, and the league should have known it.

But did the NFL actually punish Rice lightly? I have complained dozens of times about the NFL's weak punishments for serious offenses. Granted, most of those have been on the field. During a game last November, Erik Walden grabbed Delanie Walker's facemask, used it to rip the helmet off Walker's head, hurled the helmet 15 yards downfield, and then head-butted Walker in the face. Walden got a 15-yard penalty but was not ejected, and the league later suspended him for one week.

Brandon Meriweather is the dirtiest player in football, a headhunter who has repeatedly injured opponents. I've argued over and over that the NFL's new "defenseless receiver" policies make it impossible to play defensive back, but Meriweather isn't getting caught up in technicalities, he's out there trying to hurt people. I believe he should be permanently banned from competition. Last season, after Meriweather's third KO of the season, the league suspended him for two games, same as Rice. The suspension was later reduced to one game.

The NFL's approach to player discipline not covered in the drug-testing guidelines is inconsistent, but usually underwhelming. Violence, on-field or off, simply is not treated as a serious problem. Well, check that. Accidentally injuring an opponent is taken very seriously, frequently evoking five-digit fines and suspensions. Fighting, cheap shots, or assault and battery are seldom punished. Hitting an opponent in the head while making a tackle is treated as a more serious problem than punching him in the head between plays, or committing criminal assault off the field.

The U-T San Diego newspaper maintains a database of NFL arrests, which shows that in 2013, 21 of the 32 NFL teams employed a player with a domestic or sexual violence charge. Now, those are charges, not convictions. But the commissioner's office has taken no interest in most of those cases. Unless a player violates drug-testing policy or a coach stands a little too close to the sideline during a nationally televised game, anything goes.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, in a defensive interview attempting to justify Rice's punishment, said that the league has to be consistent. And to be fair, treating violence as a less serious problem than drug use is totally consistent with this commissioner's history.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:05 PM | Comments (0)

August 4, 2014

Win or Go Home

College football coaches make a ton of money each year.

They also have little to no job security, unless your last name is something like Nick Saban.

The 2014 season will tell the fate of many coaches this season, as the pressure heats up to win and win immediately. Here's a look at the hottest seats in college football.

Will Muschamp, Florida — His seat is the hottest in college football. He's at a program that's used to winning over the last two decades. He's watched Florida State surpass him as the top team in the state, then hit rock-bottom with a 4-8 campaign last year, including a loss to then-FCS Georgia Southern. Not even Ron Zook had a seat this hot in Gainesville. The Gators should be improved this year; however, will 8 wins allow Muschamp to keep his job? He's in a tough spot; he has to not only win but win big.

Mike London, Virginia — London came to UVA with great credentials, having won a FCS title with Richmond. However, he's not had much luck in Charlottesville, going 18-31 in four seasons and producing a 2-10 clunker last year. The Cavaliers have to get a passing game going to have any chance of keeping London safe. Kevin Parks simply can't do it alone.

Tim Beckman, Illinois — Having gone 6-18 in two years, Beckman is feeling the heat in Champaign. Of course, the seat was already boiling when the Illinois student section mostly no showed against Ohio State last season. If you lose the team, you lose the fans. If you lose the fans, the seat gets hot. But lose the students? That's a recipe for ultimate disaster. Beckman might want to update his resume if the Illini don't get off to a fantastic start.

Norm Chow, Hawaii — A guru as a traveling offensive coordinator, Chow is just 4-20 with Hawaii after two seasons. Given that the June Jones passing attack is still quite recent in the minds of Warrior fans, the pressure is on Chow to rekindle the Hawaii magic. Unfortunately, opening the season with Washington and Oregon State likely will add more fuel to the fire under Chow's chair.

Charlie Weis, Kansas — It's been two miserable years so far for Weis in Lawrence. The Jayhawks have shown no signs of getting out of the cellar anytime soon. Similar to Mike London, Weis has to find a passing game this season or else he's in a lot of trouble. The crucial game will likely be in the last week of September when Texas comes to town. If KU beats the Longhorns, Weis could carry that momentum for awhile. If they get stomped, the end will be near.

Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia — The Mountaineers suffered a rather surprising 4-8 season last year. He didn't fare the worst of the Gundy coaching tree (Todd Monken of Southern Miss went 1-11), but a disappointing season in his third year actually puts pressure on Holgorsen entering season four. WVU's problems lie in their defense, which gave up 37 points or more in five games last season. If they don't shore up the defensive struggles, there will likely be a new coach in Morgantown.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 4:28 PM | Comments (0)

Price, Lester, and Non-Waiver Trade Tally

The Tampa Bay Rays might have snuck back into the American League wild card hunt for a spell, the Boston Red Sox might have seen the writing on the proverbial wall and begun planning for 2015. What both clubs have in common is that they looked at the coming markets for their best pitchers, saw themselves unable (unwilling?) to compete in them (for now), and decided to trade high at the non-waiver trade deadline.

Which is part of why David Price is now a Detroit Tiger, Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes are Oakland Athletics, and all three men find themselves in the thick of races not for wild cards but for divisions.

Price hits free agency after 2015. Lester hits it this winter. Former Cy Young Award winner Price helps to front-load a Tiger rotation that already includes a pair of former Cy Young Award winners (Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander) and turns the American League Central into all but the Tigers' division to lose. Lester brings a veteran vamp to an Oakland rotation laden with young stars and at least once serviceable veteran (Jeff Samardzija; Jason Hammel has struggled since he was traded to the A's) and makes it just slightly higher up than the rival Los Angeles Angels.

The A's paid big enough for Lester, sending the Red Sox Yoenis Cespedes, who stands a terrific chance of finding Fenway Park's hitting environment just too delicious and lends the Red Sox a little (okay, a lot of) extra power. The Red Sox, who probably knew they didn't need to bring in a haul of prospects for Lester given their healthy farm system, didn't kill themselves by bringing instead a proven presence who'll factor big in a 2015 revival.

And if Lester proves not to be susceptible to Red Sox homecoming wooing in the offseason, who's to say the Olde Towne Team won't make one exception to their apparent new philosophy of avoiding big contracts and make a run at Scherzer, who spurned a reported six years and $144 million from the Tigers before this season began?

The Tigers, on the other hand, got Price for a song, maybe even a short medley. Austin Jackson went to the Seattle Mariners in the three-way deal, and while he's useful enough he won't exactly be an impact bat for the Mariners. The Mariners sent the Rays infielder Nick Franklin, and while he has his positives he isn't considered to be a long-term difference-maker, either. The Rays also got starter Drew Smyly from the Tigers, and he isn't much more than a middle of the rotation man, never mind an ace in waiting. Any way you look at it, accepting the inevitable that they wouldn't be able to afford to keep Price means, pretty much, that the Rays are going to have to crank up the player development machinery yet again.

The Red Sox didn't stop with the Lester deal. They unloaded John Lackey in a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. Lackey gives the Cardinals a badly-needed rotation bump and a peculiar discount: Lackey in 2015 will be paid a mere $500,000, thanks to a contract clause calling for that option if he should have had Tommy John surgery during the life of this contract (he did, in 2011) and he's said he'll honor the option. To get Lackey, the Cardinals sent first baseman/outfielder Allen Craig and starting pitcher Joe Kelly, both of whom stand to have bounce-backs with the Red Sox, particularly as Craig continues re-adjusting following the foot injury that left him almost useless last October.

Come to think of it, a nice pack of former World Series heroes swapped teams Thursday. Lester beat the Cardinals twice last October; Lackey, who nailed that Series' clinching game, earned his first Series ring nailing the clincher for the 2002 Angels. Craig hit the go-ahead bomb in Game 7 of the 2011 Series and caught the final out while he was at it. Gomes shook off some rough spots by hitting an electrifying, tie-breaking three-run homer in Game Four last October. Kelly started Game Three last October and pitched well enough to win, but got no decision as the Cardinals went on to win surrealistically, when Jarrod Saltalamacchia's throwing error to third allowed a gimpy Craig to score the winning run.

Let's not forget Stephen Drew. He rolled the free agency dice last winter after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Red Sox and had to wait until June before signing a one-year deal. Come Thursday, he was swapped to the Yankees for Kelly Johnson. Drew in Game Six last October helped the Red Sox cause by stepping up to the plate against Michael Wacha to open the fourth inning and hit Wacha's first pitch into the Red Sox bullpen. He'll give the Yankees solid infield performance despite his modest bat, though it's likely the Yankees might plug him into second base. The deal frees the Red Sox to put returning Xander Bogaerts back to his natural position at shortstop.

Elsewhere and otherwise:

* Asdrubal Cabrera — The Indians sent their shortstop to the Washington Nationals for another shortstop, Zach Walters. The Nats (first in the National League East) may figure on moving Cabrera to second base (Cabrera played the position now and then in his first three major league seasons) over Danny Espinosa while Anthony Rendon holds down third base until Ryan Zimmerman returns from a hamstring injury.

* Andrew Miller — The Red Sox fire sale continued when they sent setup man Andrew Miller to the Orioles for minor league pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez, considered the number three prospect in the Baltimore system but struggling at AA ball this year. Miller takes 13 holds, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 2.34 ERA with him to Camden Yards. Miller began his career with the Tigers but went to the Marlins in the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit.

* Martin Prado — With some calling it a salary dump, the Diamondbacks sent third baseman Martin Prado to the Yankees for catching prospect Peter O'Brien and a player to be named later. Prado $22 million for 2015 and 2016 coming to him on his current contract. O'Brien is a power hitting catcher (33 bombs, 70 ribs) between the Tampa Yankees and Trenton Thunder this season. Prado will step in at third while the Yankees work Drew at second.

* Gerardo Parra — The Snakes also sent Parra to the Brewers for a pair of prospects, Mitch Haniger (outfield) and Anthony Banda (pitcher). Parra looks to become a fourth outfielder with a left-handed bat in Milwaukee; Haniger was the Brewers' first-round draft pick in 2012. Banda was picked in the 33rd round by Arizona in 2011 but didn't sign; the Brewers picked him in the tenth round in 2012.

* Sam Fuld — He started the season in Oakland but was designated for assignment in April only to be claimed by the Twins. Now, the Twins have sent him back to Oakland — for starting pitcher Tommy Milone, 6-3/3.55 ERA thus far this season. Milone is said to have asked for a trade this week, after he was farmed out following the A's acquisitions of Samardzija and Hammel, and the deal to bring Lester to Oakland shoved Milone down even further on the team's depth listings. Fuld was having a pleasant bounce-back with the Twins (.370 OBP) at the time of the deal and offers Oakland a good outfield platoon/substitution option in hand with Gomes.

* Any Philadelphia Phillies — Not even close. Not even Marlon Byrd, for whom the Phillies were said to be asking for far more than the veteran's actually worth in return, and the Phillies badly need an influx of prospects to begin their rebuilding. Never mind Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, who just might have brought the Phillies that influx. (And now they can forget about moving Lee, who's probably out for the reason with a recurring elbow injury.) Hop around the Web and you'll see the general consensus to be general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. spending more time buffing up his excuses than doing business.

Sure, he could ride out the season and do something big over the offseason — and Harold Stassen could run for president again from the great beyond. Amaro could have gotten big enough value in a non-waiver trade deadline deal, most likely involving Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Hamels, and Byrd. The word is that Amaro was asking for far more than those men are actually worth, not stopping to think that he could have gotten a haul of prospects without overshooting the market.

Perhaps now the question becomes not whether but if Amaro's days in Philadelphia are numbered.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 3:16 PM | Comments (0)

August 1, 2014

Foul Territory: Stephen A. Stiffed; Lawyer Up

* His New Show is Called "Second Take," or Damnage Control — ESPN's Stephen A. Smith apologized for comments on domestic abuse he made on "First Take." Smith was later suspended for one week by the network. Clearly, Smith was asking for it.

* Black Robe Trumps White Sheet, or That Clip' Has Saled — A judge ruled against Donald Sterling in his attempt to block the sale of the Los Angeles Clippers. It wasn't all bad news for Sterling. The good news is he can't remember why he sued in the first place.

* There Are Three Possible Outcomes: Pass, Fail, and Incomplete — New York Giants quarterbacks coach Danny Langsdorf has challenged Eli Manning to complete 70 percent of his passes in the 2014 NFL season. Manning challenged his receivers to catch 50 percent of his passes.

* The King and His "Air," or Fit For a King, or #23 — LeBron James will once again wear jersey number 23 in Cleveland, and received approval from Michael Jordan, who said that any reference to LeBron James and the number 6 should be ignored.

* Joint Custody, or Smoke Screen, or This is What You Call a High Profile Case — The legal team of Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon argued in a hearing Friday that its client's positive marijuana test results were caused by second hand smoke. The prosecution plans to argue that the second hand, was, in fact, Gordon's.

* Ho's Before Bro's, or She-Rah! — The National Basketball Players Association elected Michele Roberts as its executive director. She is the first woman to lead a major North America sports league union, and will add even more diva-like behavior to the NBA.

* It's A Strip Club, How Can You Not Get Tip-sy, or Drunk History, He Was in No Rush to Get Home — A police officer found Arizona Cardinals linebacker John Abraham passed out behind the wheel of his car in June in the Atlanta suburb of Brookhaven. Abraham had been at the Pink Pony strip club, and was subsequently charged with driving under the influence. While his lawyer certainly passed it, it seems Abraham failed his "bar" exam.

* They've Got It Down, Pat — The Arizona Cardinals made Patrick Peterson the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL with a five-year extension worth $70 million. Richard Sherman is now underpaid, again.

* Full Court Mess, Soak Cal, or It Was Followed By an Outpouring of Sympathy — A massive broken water main flooded much of UCLA's athletic facilities, including Pauley Pavilion, less than two years after a major renovation. Students frolicked in the deluge, triggering the world's largest impromptu wet t-shirt contest.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:33 AM | Comments (0)