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February 28, 2014

Foul Territory: God Made Me Do It

* That's Why He Plays the "Point," or No One Got Shot, But Somebody Might Get "Cut," or She Took Him to the "Hole" — New York Knicks guard Raymond Felton was arrested Tuesday on three counts of criminal possession of a weapon. Felton allegedly threatened his wife with a gun. Felton was formally charged on Tuesday, when the Manhattan district attorney made it "arraign."

* Cage Match, or in Jail Speak, This is What's Called Becoming "Engaged," or it Was an "Isolated" Incident — Former NFL star Aaron Hernandez was involved in an altercation with another inmate in jail in Dartmouth, Massachusetts on Tuesday. For his role in the incident, Hernandez was placed in isolation in a small cell, where he'll be covered closely by four "corners."

* Combine-nation Bank, or He's Looking Out For No. One (But Himself) — Jadeveon Clowney impressed scouts with a 4.53 40-yard dash on Monday at the NFL scouting combine. Clowney said he could go faster, but only if there are 40 yards between his first paycheck and the bank.

* Shock and 0, or Wicked Wich. of the Midwest — Wichita State became the first team in history to post a 30-0 start in the regular season with a 69-49 win over Bradley on Tuesday night. The Shockers are likely to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, which is bad news for everyone, except No. 16 seeds.

* Judgment Call, or Adam and Leave, or Miss-iah, or The Devil Didn't Make Him Do It — Former San Diego State running back Adam Muema said he left the NFL scouting combine on Sunday because God told him to. Muema's next chance to work out for NFL teams is at SDSU's Pro Day next month. Muema plans to prepare for that with mountain climbing and ark-building workouts.

* From Russia With Shame, Empty Nyet Syndrome, Or Russian Nightmare — Alexander Ovechkin apologized for Russia's Olympic hockey performance, in which the host team failed to medal. Russian president Vladimir Putin accepted the apology, but suggested Ovechkin speak no more on the subject, citing the "gulag" reflex.

* There Can Be Only One — Floyd Mayweather will face Argentina's Marcos Maidana on May 3rd in a welterweight unification bout. The bout will either take place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas or the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, and Mayweather has already started taunting Maidana with threats of "domestic" battery.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:22 PM | Comments (0)

February 27, 2014

Bring Instant Replay to Balls and Strikes

So, MIT has produced a study looking at how umpires call balls and strikes depending on the count.

Before we get to their findings, let's look at their sample size. It's effin' impressive. They looked at 75 umpires, each with a minimum of 2,500 pitches seen between 2009-2011. In total, they analyzed over 1 million pitches.

So what did they find?

They found that when the batter had two strikes against him, the size of the called strike zone significantly decreased, In some cases, the strike zone was 19% smaller.

They found that the strike zone expanded when the batter had three balls against him, albeit not as dramatically as the 19% inverse.

They found that umps are reluctant to call two strikes in a row — the strike zone again shrunk if the previous ball was a strike.

But here was the data that jumped out to me the most. In how many of those 75 umpires did we see these trends, and for it to be significant enough to not be inconclusive?

All of them. All 75, without exception.

So if it seems like the ump is not raising his arm on that 3-1 pitch that you just know he called a strike a couple inning ago, it's not your imagination.

In a strange way, this actually kind of gets umpires off the hook. If all 75 of them are doing it, it's hard to argue that it isn't human nature. And better still for the umps, sort of, it means they are reluctant to put themselves in the middle of the action. They want the game to be played, and decided on, the field.

But that's about all the good I can glean out of this. We have the technology to have infallible strike zones. So then it becomes a question of which is more important: tradition, or calls that are always correct?

I'm firmly in the latter camp. But I realize it's not that simple. Home plate umpires are a centerpiece of American sports like no other adjudicators. Head refs in the NFL come close, but they are only in the spotlight 10-20 plays a game.

I'm also not keen on the idea of remorselessly sacking them all.

So I offer a compromise: Bring the challenge system to baseball. Give teams a certain amount of challenges a game, let's say four, and they only lose them when they are wrong.

Oh god, you are thinking, the game will take forever if we do that. Look at how long it takes for NFL reviews to go down.

But football should not be the model for replay technology for baseball. Tennis should be.

On ATP and WTA events on hard courts and grass, they utilize a technology called "hawkeye" to determine if a ball is in or out. It's only used when a player challenges a call, which he or she does simply by raising their hand. At that point, almost immediately, a computer animation displays, based on the trajectory of the ball, where it necessarily landed. The crowd gets into it, seeing it on the big screen, and it's fast.

That could easily be implemented identically in baseball. No need for umpires to go under hoods. No need for "the booth" to look at something from 100 angles. It's all technology-driven, and done in an interactive and exciting way.

It also represents a compromise between the traditionalists and the futurists, if you will.

Failing that, show all the umpires the MIT report. Maybe they can be a little less intuitively biased if they are aware of it.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:00 PM | Comments (0)

February 26, 2014

Sorting Out the One Seeds From the Twos

As the college basketball season winds down, we're met with questions of bubble teams, road wins, strength of schedule, and my personal favorite debate this time of year: who deserves the number one seeds. It's not easy to sort out before the conference tournaments begin, but the scenarios are such that we can hypothesize a bit.

Florida Gators

Florida hasn't lost since December 2. They have one difficult game remaining — at home vs. Kentucky. Aside from Kentucky, the SEC is weak and there is a reasonably good likelihood the Gators will play the Wildcats for the SEC tournament title when the time comes. Winning one of those games will be enough to solidify a number 1 seed for the Gators. Losing one of their three other remaining games (at Vanderbilt, vs. LSU, at South Carolina) could alter things a bit, but expect the Gators to take care of business.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 95%

Wichita State Shockers

After Syracuse's losses, the Shockers are now the only undefeated team in the country. You've probably heard a dozen professors of bracketology say that the Shockers won't get a number one seed and I was inclined to agree with them until I saw the AP poll. It surprised me that the Shockers were number 2. I expected them to stay at 3 and be jumped by Arizona, or even to drop to 4 with Syracuse staying ahead of them, but they jumped to number 2.

However, what makes me think the Shockers have a real shot at a number 1 seed is the fact that 14 of the AP's 65 voters put Wichita State at number 1. I don't know how much that will affect the selection committee, maybe not at all, but it tells me that people are paying closer attention to the Shockers this year than to mid-majors of previous years.

What I described earlier with the Shockers dropping, despite winning, is precisely what has happened to other mid-majors who carried undefeated or one loss records deep into the season. Once voters start thinking tournament, they downgrade mid-majors in the rankings, but not the Shockers in 2014. Not yet anyway. The Shockers are at Bradley and vs. Missouri State to close out the season. The Missouri Valley Conference tournament will then be all that's left to determine if the Shockers can carry the undefeated record into the NCAA tournament. But what stands most in the way of the Shockers is the selection committee.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 53%

Arizona Wildcats

I don't get the number 1 votes for the Wildcats. To me, they are barely different on paper than Saint Louis (yes, Pac 12 teams are better in general than teams in the Atlantic 10). I guess there are a lack of options. They are the only team ranked in the entire Pac-12. I also don't understand RPI and BPI very well as the Wildcats are 2 in RPI and 1 in BPI. I just look at their schedule and see so few impressive wins in the list (Duke, San Diego, Michigan). And I see losses to 32 and 51 in RPI. Despite my disagreements, it seems like they are the actual favorites for the number one overall seed and not Florida. With four games remaining (vs. Cal and Stanford; at Oregon and Oregon State), it seems obvious that winning will be enough to shore up a number 1 seed for Arizona.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 90%

Syracuse Orange

Syracuse didn't do itself any favors last week. Everyone can forgive a loss at Duke, but a loss at home to Boston College doesn't make a lot of sense. It makes less sense that Syracuse couldn't win at home in overtime. And just in case you think Boston College is just mediocre, they're not. They are terrible. They are 3-11 in the ACC (with two of those wins over the even more dismal Virginia Tech.) and 7-20 overall. Boston College has lost to Toledo and Harvard. And here's a question for you? What do Syracuse and the Sacred Heart Pioneers have in common? They both lost to Boston College in overtime. The Sacred Heart Pioneers are certainly one of the worst 10 teams in all of Division I basketball with a record currently of 4-24.

All that being said though, Syracuse is still 26-2 all while playing in a tough ACC. Syracuse remaining schedule includes at Virginia (who has made a quiet leap to the top of the ACC), at home vs. Georgia Tech. (who is better than Boston College) and at Florida State. One loss and not winning the ACC tournament could downgrade Syracuse to a number 2. Two losses in their last three and a poor showing in the ACC tournament certainly would push them to a number 2 ... if not a 3. At this point though, winning the ACC tournament might be enough to show that they are back on track and solidify a number one seed ... unless they lose to Georgia Tech.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 66%

Kansas Jayhawks

Despite 6 losses, Kansas is being thrown around as a likely candidate for a number one seed. They are currently number 1 in RPI and number 3 in BPI. Looking at the Big 12 today, claiming a Big 12 regular season title doesn't seem all that impressive, but when one considers that Baylor and Oklahoma State have underperformed as badly as they have, the feat becomes a bit more impressive. But six losses. Is that ever acceptable for a number one seed? If Kansas wins out and wins the Big 12 tournament, I'll be perfectly fine with their number one seed. But if they lose one of their remaining regular season games (at Oklahoma State on March 1 perhaps) and do not win the Big 12 tournament, I simply cannot justify them as a number 1 seed. Eight losses is too many. I don't care how hard your schedule is.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 58%

Duke Blue Devils

Duke seems to be on the fringes of these conversations, which I find odd. Kansas is getting a lot of attention, but Duke is largely ignored in the number 1 seed conversation. Duke won't win the ACC regular season title, that honor will go to Syracuse or Virginia. Is it possible that Virginia will win the ACC and Duke would get a number 1 seed in the NCAA tournament despite being third in its own conference? I don't know. It would mean losses by two of the five teams above. I think essentially it would mean Wichita State would have to lose once and Kansas or Syracuse would have to lose twice (including conference tournaments) for the Blue Devils to be in the mix. But a number 2 seed is extremely likely.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 10%

Louisville Cardinals

It will be really interesting to see how the newly formed American Conference is treated. It seems like there's a pretty clear cut five teams who will make the tournament, but how they will be treated and seeded remains a mystery. Louisville's reputation should earn them a favorable placement. But the last three games for the Cardinals are not simple. They are at Memphis, at Southern Methodist, and at home vs. Connecticut. I think we might see one loss in that mix. Winning the conference depends on how Cincinnati performs as well.

Could winning the newly-formed American regular season and tournament titles spell a number one seed? It depends on the selection committee. There's a balance issue here as the Cardinals' RPI is 27 and their BPI is 5. Winning out could move the RPI up enough to make a number one seed a real possibility for the Cardinals, especially with losses from the teams above.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 12%

Villanova Wildcats

Villanova at 24-3 in last year's Big East would have been on everyone's radar as a potential number one seed and potential NCAA champion. In this weakened shell of a Big East, things are less certain. Villanova has lost twice to Creighton and at Syracuse. They've beaten Iowa and Kansas. This is a good team, right? They have an RPI of 4 and a BPI of 10. But I've yet to hear their name in the discussion of number one seeds. It should be. The Wildcats could win the Big East. Is that something to sneeze at nowadays? I don't think so.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 8%

Creighton Bluejays

Creighton is a team that seems to play to the level of its competition. They beat Villanova twice, but lost at St. Johns, at Providence, and on a neutral court to San Diego State and George Washington. Creighton simply doesn't have the non-conference strength of schedule to compare to other teams with 3-5 losses. But perhaps being the Big East champion still means a lot.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 2%

Saint Louis Billikens

There's really not much to say here. Even though St. Louis hasn't lost since December 1 (to Wichita State) there isn't enough competition in the Atlantic 10 this year to move the Billikens near a number 1 seed. In fact, I think they'll be lucky to get a 4. They may drop as low as 6 even with only two losses.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 0%

Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats are in nearly the same boat as the Louisville Cardinals. Their final three regular season games are at UConn, at home vs. Memphis, and at Rutgers. The Bearcats are a little more predictably out of the number one race. Currently their RPI is only 19 and their BPI is 22. Those will likely move up around 10 spots with six straight wins, but even still, I don't see a number 1 happening.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 4%

Virginia Cavaliers

Imagine this, if Virginia runs the table before selection Sunday, they'll win the ACC regular season and tournament titles. They have only five losses (admittedly, two of them horrendous ones — at Green Bay and at Tennessee ... by 35). The ACC regular season and tournament champion sounds like a reasonable number 1 seed most years. Don't you think? The issue is that Virginia currently has one win over an opponent ranked at the time of the matchup. The pileup ahead of the Cavaliers will likely keep them out of a number one spot.

Chance of a number 1 seed: 2%

Of note in all of this is that the Big Ten does not have a team on this list. Wisconsin is ranked 14 in the AP, but 5 in RPI and 12 in BPI. They have a few too many unseemly conference losses to garner too much attention for a number one seed.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:57 PM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 1

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt withstood a long rain delay and held off numerous challenges to win his second Daytona 500, beating Denny Hamlin to the line. The win ended a 55-race winless streak and instantly qualified Earnhardt for the Chase For the Cup.

"That six-hour, 22-minute rain delay didn't bother me at all," Earnhardt said. "What's 6:22 when I'm used to waiting 55 races for a win? And what better way to celebrate such a huge win than to join Twitter. By the time you read this, I should have 750,000 followers, and the best thing is, none will require a restraining order."

2. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin topped off a successful Speedweeks with a runner-up finish in the 500, making a bold move at the front before finishing behind Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Hamlin won the first Gatorade Duel and led 16 laps in Sunday night's race.

"How about that piece of black plastic that clung to Dale, Jr.'s grill?" Hamlin said. "Some say it was the 'Man in Black,' Dale Earnhardt, Sr., making his presence known. NASCAR made an even more outlandish claim — that it was proof that their 'Drive For Diversity' program is actually working. Here's the most interesting part: ghosts are a lot like NASCAR drivers — mostly white."

3. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski, in the No. 2 car with the classic Miller Lite paint scheme, challenged for the win at Daytona and finished third behind Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

"I hear that Danica Patrick exceeded 1,000,000 Twitter followers," Keselowski said. "That's a lot, maybe too many for one web site to handle. I can see this ending in one way only — with a 'crash.'"

4. Jeff Gordon: Gordon finished fourth at Daytona as Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr. powered to the win. Gordon gave Earnhardt a boost on the final lap, helping Junior hold off Denny Hamlin at the end.

"Dale deserved to win," Gordon said. "His No. 88 National Guard Chevrolet was by far the strongest. This could very well be the year Junior wins the Sprint Cup. In other words, it could finally be when 'A Little E Goes a Long Way.'"

5. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson started 39th after going to a backup car and finished fifth after leading 15 laps. Last year's Daytona 500 winner joined race winner Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Jeff Gordon as Hendrick Motorsports took three of the top five spots.

"That rain just wouldn't stop," Johnson said. "And, trust me, I know long 'reigns.'

"I'm on a quest for my seventh Sprint Cup championship. It would be awesome to be mentioned in the same sentence with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt, Sr. Contrary to what Tony Stewart says, six titles give you the right to 'challenge' Petty, not two."

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth started third after winning Thursday's second Gatorade Duel and finished a long day at Daytona with a sixth-place finish. Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch finished second and 19th, respectively.

"Did you see Kyle cross the finish line?" Kenseth said. "He did it in reverse. But that's really no surprise. Just look at the sponsors on the No. 18 car — it's got 'good backing.'"

7. Austin Dillon — Dillon survived involvement in three accidents at Daytona and put the Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevy in the top 10 in the return of the "3" made famous by Dale Earnhardt, Sr.

"That '3' on the side of my car means a lot," Dillon said. "At Daytona, it indicated the number of crashes I caused."

8. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. — Stenhouse led the way for Roush Fenway Racing with a seventh at Daytona, joining teammate Greg Biffle, who finished eighth, in the top 10. It was Stenhouse's best finish ever in the 500.

"That was one of the best Daytona 500's of all time," Stenhouse said. "I can't wait to catch a replay of the race, and neither can Dale Earnhardt, Jr. fans. That's the only way their favorite driver will have multiple wins this season."

9. Greg Biffle — Biffle battled Dale Earnhardt, Jr. over the final laps at Daytona before the mad scramble relegated him to a finish of eighth.

"How about Madison Rising's performance of the national anthem before Saturday's Nationwide race?" Biffle said. "They claim to be America's most patriotic band. I certainly agree. Their music is best listened to with a hand over the heart, and two over the ears."

10. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished 13th at Daytona in the No. 4 Chevrolet, the highest finisher among the Stewart-Haas Racing stable.

"Tony Stewart challenged Richard Petty to race Danica Patrick," Harvick said, "and the 'King' accepted. But really, what does King Richard stand to gain with a win? The last thing he needs is another feather in his cap."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:22 PM | Comments (0)

February 25, 2014

Best QBs Not to Win a Championship

All month, I've been writing about Super Bowl quarterbacks. It started off with Super Bowl XLVIII, but so much of the narrative after that game was about the losing QB, Peyton Manning, and his legacy going forward. That inspired a look at the best quarterbacks to lose multiple Super Bowls, then I turned around and highlighted the best performances by Super Bowl-winning QBs. We're wrapping it up by going in the other direction: the best quarterbacks without a championship. I only looked at the major pro leagues (NFL, AFL, AAFC), so this list actually includes players who did win championships in other organizations.

We often judge QBs by whether or not their team won championships, but everyone recognizes that sometimes great players don't reach the highest level of team success. So, who's at the top of the list?

1. Dan Marino
Miami Dolphins, 1983-99
61,361 yards, 420 TD, 252 INT, 86.4 rating

When Dan Marino retired, he held the career records for pass attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns, all of them by a huge margin. He also held dozens of records for things like 300-yard passing games and 4,000-yard seasons, plus significant single-season records for passing yards (5,084) and TDs (48).

It isn't just that Marino set the records; he put them far out of reach, and they stood for decades. No one came within 200 yards of Marino's single-season record for 24 years. When Drew Brees finally broke it more than a quarter-century later (2011), he threw almost 100 more passes than Marino. The TD record was even more impressive: when Marino threw 48 TDs, he broke the existing record ... of 36. Two years later, he threw 44. No other QB passed for 40 TDs in a season until Kurt Warner in 1999, and the record didn't fall until 2004 (Peyton Manning).

The career marks, since broken by Brett Favre, were equally unthinkable. Marino retired with nearly 10,000 more yards than 2nd-place John Elway (51,475) and nearly 25% more TDs than Fran Tarkenton (342). Marino made nine Pro Bowls and six Associated Press All-Pro Teams, including three straight years First-Team All-Pro (1984-86).

Marino's 1984 season, when he set the yardage and TD records (as well as completions), might be the best season in NFL history, by any player at any position. The Dolphins went 14-2, and Marino won NFL MVP ahead of Eric Dickerson (who rushed for 2,105 yards). He threw 3 TDs in a playoff win over the Seahawks and Defensive Player of the Year Kenny Easley, then 421 yards and 4 TDs in a 45-28 AFC Championship victory over the Steelers. The Dolphins lost Super Bowl XIX, but everyone in football knew that Marino, just 23, would win multiple Super Bowls. When Marino nearly matched his 1984 stats two years later, the AP voters named Lawrence Taylor MVP, because they couldn't just give it to Marino every year, and everyone knew that he'd win it again.

It didn't work out that way. The Dolphins, dynastic in the '70s and early '80s, failed to restock their roster when stars like Dwight Stephenson and Doug Betters retired. Hall of Fame coach Don Shula, now 30 years into his coaching career, finally lost his edge. Marino led Miami to 10 playoff appearances, but never back to the Super Bowl.

Close Call: Marino's best season was also Miami's, as the '84 Dolphins went 14-2 and won their playoff games by about 20 points each. But the team didn't match up well against Joe Montana and the 15-1 San Francisco 49ers, and lost Super Bowl XIX.

An upset loss to New England in the playoffs the next season was equally heart-breaking, with Miami the only team to beat the famous '85 Bears.

Winning Pedigree: Marino led the University of Pittsburgh to three Bowl wins. He retired with the 2nd-most wins as starting quarterback in pro football history, leading the Dolphins to 10 playoff appearances, five AFC East titles, three AFC Championship Games, and a Super Bowl.

You Might Not Know: Marino is the best passer in history at avoiding sacks. Famously slow, he had great pocket awareness and an incredibly quick release. His 3.13% sack percentage is slightly worse than Peyton Manning's 3.10%, but Marino played in an era when QBs took more sacks. Drew Brees (3.83%) is somewhat close to Manning, but none of Marino's contemporaries are anywhere near his mark. Brett Favre (4.9%) took over 50% more sacks per attempt, but his number is better than Troy Aikman (5.2), Dan Fouts (5.4), Joe Montana (5.5), Warren Moon (6.29), Jim Kelly (6.33), John Elway (6.6), Steve Young (7.9), et al. Phil Simms (9.3) and Randall Cunningham (10.1) actually took three times as many sacks as Marino.

2. Fran Tarkenton
Minnesota Vikings, 1961-66, 1972-78, New York Giants, 1967-71
47,003 yards, 342 TD, 266 INT, 80.4 rating

Like Marino two decades later, Fran Tarkenton re-wrote the record books. He took down every record set by Johnny Unitas, and retired with the career marks for yardage and TDs. In addition to his passing records, Tarkenton was also the most renowned scrambler in pro football. He rushed for 300 yards seven times, the most by any quarterback until Michael Vick upped the record in 2013. There are a handful of passers with more yards than Tarkenton, and a few QBs with more rushing yardage, but no one is ahead of him in both categories, and only John Elway is even close. Likewise with touchdowns.

What most distinguished Tarkenton, and what allowed him to drive his career stats so high, was remarkable year-to-year consistency at an elite level. He simply never had a bad year. For the better part of 18 seasons, Tarkenton was one of the best players in football at his position. He played heroically with the expansion Vikings, leading them to a winning record sooner (8-5-1 in 1964) than Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys, who had debuted a year earlier. In his first game in 1961, Tarkenton passed for 4 TDs and ran for a 5th. But it was with the New York Giants that Tarkenton had his prime years.

The Giants were a joke in the mid-60s. They went 2-10-2 in 1964, fluked up to 7-7 the next year, then bottomed out at 1-12-1 in '66, a game and a half behind the expansion Falcons. In desperation, they traded for Tarkenton, sending the Vikings two 1st-round draft picks and two 2nd-rounders. Teams normally regret that kind of trade — Minnesota's acquisition of Herschel Walker is most famous, and Washington's trade for RG3 is a more recent example — but the Giants improved immediately. Tarkenton set career-highs for passing yards and TDs, the Giants scored 106 points more than the previous year (an improvement of over 40%), and New York went 7-7, the first of four straight second-place finishes. Even though the Giants never made the playoffs, Tarkenton regards these as the best seasons of his career.

After five years with the Giants, another blockbuster trade returned Tarkenton to Minnesota, now coached by Hall of Famer Bud Grant and backed up by a brilliant defense featuring three Hall of Famers. The Vikings won the NFC Central in each of his last six seasons, including three NFC titles — and three Super Bowl losses. Over his long career, Tarkenton made nine Pro Bowls and won the 1975 NFL MVP Award.

I realize younger fans may not know much about Tarkenton. Pro Football Reference lists the most comparable players as John Elway, Dan Marino, John Unitas, Brett Favre, and Joe Montana.

Close Call: This is sort of unorthodox, but I'm going with 1975. None of Tarkenton's three Super Bowl losses were close games, and he threw more interceptions than TDs in all three. But 1975 was probably Minnesota's best season during Tarkenton's tenure. The team went 12-2, both losses on the road by single-digits, and outscored opponents 377-180 — scoring more than twice as many points as they allowed. In their first playoff game, the Vikings led Dallas 14-10 in the fourth quarter. With :30 left in the game, Roger Staubach threw a pass we now call "The Hail Mary," and Minnesota lost.

Winning Pedigree: Six straight NFC Central titles and three NFC Championships. The Giants were never going to make the playoffs during Tarkenton's years, but in 1970, he was credited with five game-winning drives, tied for the most ever in a 14-game season.

You Might Not Know: I wrote earlier that Tarkenton never had a bad year, and of course that's not entirely true — but it's pretty close. Other than 1977, when he was injured, Tarkenton ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in completions every season from 1961-78, seventeen years. That includes three years leading the league and 11 seasons in the top five. He ranked in the top 10 in passing TDs 16 times, and that doesn't include an average of 2 rushing TDs per season. He was top-10 in passer rating 16 times. Passing yards per game — and again, this doesn't credit his rushing — 17 years in a row, with 12 in the top five. His record of consistent excellence is unmatched through history, except maybe by Marino. Peyton Manning has only played 15 seasons, but his career is shaping up the same way.

3. Sonny Jurgensen
Philadelphia Eagles, 1957-63, Washington, 1964-74
32,224 yards, 255 TD, 189 INT, 82.6 rating

Vince Lombardi coached Hall of Fame quarterback Bart Starr, and together they won five NFL Championships. Lombardi coached against Johnny Unitas every year. Yet it was of Jurgensen that Lombardi said, "He may be the best the league has ever seen. He is the best I have seen."

People were in awe of Sonny Jurgensen. Until about 2000, it was common to hear Jurgensen described as the best pure passer in history. In fact, in the literature of the sport, that is the phrase you find, over and over again: "best pure passer." No one really talks about "best pure passer" any more, and if they did, I suppose most people would look for someone more recent, maybe Manning or Marino. But the brilliance of Jurgensen's arm is easier to document than the intelligence of Bob Griese or the leadership of Bart Starr. His quick release was legendary, and that's something we've forgotten, too. Don Shula, discussing his own HOF QB, said, "Only Sonny Jurgensen and Joe Namath have been able to get rid of the ball as quickly as Marino." You might still hear about Namath's quick release sometimes, but probably not Sonny's. Without question, he is the most underrated quarterback in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Jurgensen led the NFL in passing yards five times, twice setting the single-season record. He led in touchdowns twice, and his career passer rating (82.62) is the highest of his generation, fractions ahead of Len Dawson (82.58), but comfortably in front of Starr (80.5), Tarkenton (80.4), Unitas (78.2), Griese (77.1), Namath (65.5), and George Blanda (60.6). But the numbers undersell Jurgensen, because he never got to face his own defense. In 1967, Jurgensen led the NFL in completions, yards, TDs, and passer rating. But Washington's defense ranked 15th in the 16-team NFL (behind the expansion Saints), and the team went 5-6-3.

Jurgensen's stats are exceptional for his era, and contemporary opinion shows him very highly regarded. Players, coaches, and sportswriters worshipped him. The only mark against Jurgensen is the rings. I doubt many fans would expect Jurgensen to rank this high, but he's a comfortable third, and I would suggest that anyone who feels he should rate lower is under-informed.

Close Call: Sorry, Washington fans. In 1961, Jurgensen's first year as starter, he led the NFL in completions, yards, and TDs (he ranked 2nd in passer rating), and the Eagles went 10-4. The Giants went 10-3-1, and Philadelphia missed appearing in the NFL Championship by half a game.

Winning Pedigree: Jurgensen played mostly on terrible teams, and unlike Marino or Tarkenton, is effectively immune to any serious charge of choking, simply because he never had an opportunity. Never in his career did Jurgensen start a playoff game.

You Might Not Know: NFL Films did a 15-minute feature, which is available free online, Did You Ever See Sonny Play? Watching even a few clips, you see immediately why people thought so highly of Jurgensen's arm.

4. Dan Fouts
San Diego Chargers, 1973-87
43,040 yards, 254 TD, 242 INT, 80.2 rating

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the San Diego Chargers re-wrote the record books. They called it Air Coryell, after legendary offensive coach Don Coryell, but the man who made it happen on the field was Dan Fouts. From 1979-82, he led the NFL in passing yards every year and made four Pro Bowls, with two seasons First-Team All-Pro and Offensive Player of the Year in 1982.

Altogether, Fouts made six Pro Bowls and four Associated Press All-Pro teams. He set the single-season record for passing yards in 1980, then broke it a year later, and was on pace to break it again during the 1982 strike season. He had everything you want from a quarterback: he was big and strong, and very smart. This is still obvious, today, 30 years after his playing career, in his job as an announcer. Fouts looks like an ex-football player, and he's one of the better analysts in his profession.

People used to complain that the Charger offense scored too quickly, that the defense would have been fine if it wasn't so tired from always having to go back on the field after another touchdown. But San Diego made the playoffs only four times in Fouts' career: 1979-82, the four seasons Fouts led the NFL in passing. In 1980, the Chargers won the AFC West, but lost to the division rival Raiders in the AFC Championship Game. Fouts threw two touchdowns to Charlie Joiner, but the Chargers lost, 34-27. You're not going to win many games when you give up 34 points, but maybe it was Fouts' fault for scoring too quickly.

San Diego's playoff experience the next season is legendary. The league even documented it for the Missing Rings series. Fouts threw three TDs in an epic overtime win against Miami, after which the Chargers traveled to Cincinnati for the Freezer Bowl, the coldest game in NFL history, with a reported wind chill of -59°. The Bengals won, and advanced to Super Bowl XVI.

Close Call: The Chargers reached back-to-back AFC Championship Games in 1980 and '81, see above.

Winning Pedigree: Fouts' prime was also San Diego's. His best years were the team's best years. Comparing Fouts to Joe Montana and Ken Anderson in 1982, Bill Walsh said, "Fouts is the most perceptive of the three, the most resourceful, the most dynamic and he had the most leadership."

You Might Not Know: Fouts was the first player with back-to-back 4,000-yard passing seasons.

5. Y.A. Tittle
Baltimore Colts, 1948-50, San Francisco 49ers, 1951-60, New York Giants, 1961-64
33,070 yards, 242 TD, 248 INT, 74.3 rating

I agonized over who to rank fourth: Fouts or Tittle? Tittle or Fouts? I went back and forth half a dozen times. The argument for Tittle is longevity and consistency. He was a top quarterback in the 1940s, and he was still a top quarterback in the 1960s. For nearly the entirety of his long career, Tittle was a top-10 QB. That's not as impressive in a 12-team league as it was for Fran Tarkenton in a 26-team league, but it's a record that none of his contemporaries can match. Otto Graham and Norm Van Brocklin retired early, while Bobby Layne and John Unitas lost effectiveness near the end of their careers.

Tittle, in contrast, was most successful at the end of his career, leading the Giants to three straight NFL Championship Games. All three were ugly losses. It is a curiosity that quarterbacks draw a worse reputation from losing in the postseason than from not reaching it at all. Losing in the regular season is seldom held against the player, but losses in the playoffs indicate some lack of character. Tittle himself noted, "The football writers began to say that Tittle could not win the big games—I guess by that they meant the championship games. I have won some very big games—and I have lost some, too."

Anyway, Tittle was brilliant in New York. The most important All-Pro teams in the early '60s were the United Press and Associated Press. UP named him NFL MVP in '62, and AP named him NFL MVP in '63. He was a consensus All-Pro both years.

Called the Bald Eagle (he was follically challenged), Tittle was also the head of the Million Dollar Backfield in San Francisco: Tittle, Joe Perry, Hugh McElhenny, and John Henry Johnson, all Hall of Famers. Those teams also featured wide receiver Billy Wilson (who should be in the Hall of Fame), and in New York, Tittle played with Del Shofner and Frank Gifford. After he retired, Tittle and Tex Maule wrote two phenomenal articles for Sports Illustrated in 1965.

Close Call: 1961-63. Tittle was the Jim Kelly of the early '60s, making three straight championship appearances and losing each one. He didn't play particularly well in any of them, but the heart-breaker was probably 1962. Swirling winds and an icy field in the title game took away the deep pass to Shofner, and New York's only points came on a blocked punt, as the Packers won 16-7.

Winning Pedigree: Tittle's years in San Francisco are comparable to Jurgensen's tenure in Washington: good offense, defense that couldn't get them into the postseason. But Tittle was a leader in New York, and no one doubted that he was the driving force behind the Giants' three straight Eastern Conference championships.

You Might Not Know: Yelberton Abraham.

6. Warren Moon
Houston Oilers, 1984-93, Minnesota Vikings, 1994-96, Seattle Seahawks, 1997-98, Kansas City Chiefs, 1999-2000
49,325 yards, 291 TD, 233 INT, 80.9 rating

The numbers above only show Moon's NFL statistics. Moon, of course, did win championships — five straight — with the CFL's Edmonton Eskimos, for whom he played six years. Black quarterbacks were still regarded with skepticism in the late '70s, and Moon was not drafted. His accomplishments in the NFL are all the more remarkable when you consider that he didn't get to play until he was almost 28, spending several years of his prime in Canada.

Moon's career stats are comparable to John Elway's ... if you only consider his years in the NFL. His combined CFL/NFL stats show 70,553 yards, 435 TD, 310 INT, and an 84.2 passer rating. He made nine Pro Bowls, and probably would have been First-Team All-Pro in 1990, except that he and Randall Cunningham split the black vote. Compared to Joe Montana (who got the First-Team nod), Moon was ahead in completions, completion percentage, yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns, TD percentage, fewer interceptions, INT percentage, TD/INT differential, passer rating, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, total yards, and total touchdowns — leading by a wide margin (700 total yards, +10 td/int) in some cases.

Moon is most famous for his decade with the Houston Oilers, especially the run 'n shoot years with Drew Hill, Ernest Givins, and Haywood Jeffires in the early '90s. But Moon also made his mark in Minnesota. He passed for back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons — we'll come back to that in a moment — made two Pro Bowls, and facilitated Cris Carter's single-season receptions record. He got hurt in '96, then went to Seattle and made the Pro Bowl there, too. In February 1998, at age 41, Moon was named Pro Bowl MVP. The AFC trailed 24-14 when Moon entered the game and led a 29-24 comeback victory.

So about those back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons ... until Peyton Manning, that had only been done by three players: Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, and Warren Moon — twice each. Moon passed for over 4,600 yards with the Oilers in both 1990 and '91, then over 4,200 in his first two seasons with the Vikings. Through 2013, Moon and Manning are the only players with back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons for different teams.

Close Call: In a wild card playoff game following the 1992 season, Moon threw four TDs and the Oilers led Buffalo 35-3. You probably know how that ended up...

Winning Pedigree: From 1987-93, the Oilers made seven straight playoff appearances. Moon is really the one player on this list whom no one could deny was a winner. He won five Grey Cups and he was MVP of the 1978 Rose Bowl.

You Might Not Know: Moon is the only player in both the Canadian Football Hall of Fame and the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He was also the first undrafted quarterback elected to Canton.

7. Donovan McNabb
Philadelphia Eagles, 1999-2009, Washington, 2010, Minnesota Vikings, 2011
37,276 yards, 234 TD, 117 INT, 85.6 rating

In 2009, I noted that only seven QBs in NFL history had thrown 100 more TDs than interceptions: Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Donovan McNabb. That's obviously incredibly select company for McNabb, probably the six best quarterbacks of the last 35 years. There are now 11 QBs in the +100 Club, the new additions being Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo. Still, pretty impressive. But McNabb's not just +100, he threw twice as many TDs as picks. How many QBs have done that (min. 4,000 att)? Six: Brady, Brees, Manning, McNabb, Rivers, and Young.

McNabb's 2.2% interception percentage is among the very lowest in history. His 85.6 passer rating is also very good: among players with as many pass attempts as McNabb, only Brady, Brees, Manning, Marino, and Montana are higher. And none of these players, except Steve Young, could run like McNabb. He is one of only five players with 30,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards, joining John Elway, Steve McNair, Fran Tarkenton, and Young.

We've started with numbers here, but the numbers are not a fair way to evaluate Donovan McNabb, because he never really had a first-class receiver. He had one season with Terrell Owens, and apart from that never played with a Pro Bowl receiver or an elite tight end. There's no Jerry Rice here, no Marvin Harrison or Isaac Bruce. The one full season he played with Owens, McNabb's statistics exploded. He had two years with DeSean Jackson at the tail end of his career, and statistically, they were two of his best seasons. It seems reasonable to guess that if McNabb had a few years with a Sterling Sharpe or a Randy Moss, his numbers would be even more impressive.

Furthermore, McNabb's two best seasons (2002 and 2006) were both cut short by injuries. He was an MVP candidate both years. No, the numbers don't do him justice. McNabb has some of the best passing statistics in history, was one of the best running quarterbacks in history, made five straight Pro Bowls before injuries became a problem, took his team to five conference championship games, and did all this with a sub-par supporting cast. I know some people don't think of McNabb as a quarterback of historic stature, but when you look at his career objectively, I think it's hard to deny.

Close Call: The Eagles had a real chance in Super Bowl XXXIX, but they failed to capitalize on opportunities in the first half and lost 24-21, to a very good New England Patriots team.

Winning Pedigree: Philadelphia made the playoffs in eight of McNabb's 10 seasons as starter. He led the Eagles to five NFC Championship Games, including four in a row from 2001-04. The only other QBs to start in five conference championship games: Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady, John Elway, Brett Favre, Jim Kelly, Joe Montana, Ken Stabler, Roger Staubach. That's seven Hall of Famers (assuming Brady and Favre), plus Stabler and McNabb.

You Might Not Know: McNabb finished second in MVP voting in 2000, behind only Marshall Faulk.

8. Jim Kelly
Buffalo Bills, 1986-96
35,467 yards, 237 TD, 175 INT, 84.4 rating

Kelly and Tarkenton are the only players to overlap in this piece and my column on the best quarterbacks to lose multiple Super Bowls. Kelly actually lost the most NFL Championships of any starting quarterback in history, and he is most famous for Buffalo's four-year run of AFC titles and Super Bowl annihilations.

Like fellow HOF QB Steve Young, Kelly began his pro career in the USFL, playing two seasons with the Houston Gamblers. Kelly passed for 83 TDs, which is impressive even in 18-game seasons, and he started immediately for the Bills when the rival league collapsed. Kelly's 3,593 passing yards in 1986 set an NFL rookie record, but his best seasons came in the early '90s, when the Bills adapted a hurry-up offense from the Bengals team that had knocked them out of the playoffs in '88.

Unlike McNabb, Kelly benefitted from a strong supporting cast, especially on offense. The Super Bowl-era Bills have produced six HOFers: Kelly, head coach Marv Levy, RB Thurman Thomas, both starting WRs (Andre Reed and James Lofton), and defensive end Bruce Smith. Buffalo also had a strong offensive line, especially center Kent Hull. I know some readers will think I'm crazy for ranking McNabb ahead of Kelly, but if you think the Bills make any Super Bowls with Kelly throwing to Todd Pinkston and handing off to Duce Staley, you're the one who's crazy.

Close Call: Super Bowl XXV, Wide Right. Maybe the most gut-wrenching loss in Super Bowl history, with the favored Bills losing when their last-minute field goal attempt sailed wide right, sealing a 20-19 loss.

Winning Pedigree: The thing about losing all those Super Bowls is that you have to get to them first. Buffalo made the playoffs in eight of Kelly's 11 seasons, and he went 9-7 as a starter in the postseason, 9-3 if you're only looking at the AFC playoffs.

You Might Not Know: Kelly was a successful quarterback at the University of Miami, but he was also recruited by Joe Paterno at Penn State ... as a linebacker.

9. Ken Anderson
Cincinnati Bengals, 1971-86
32,838 yards, 197 TD, 160 INT, 81.9 rating

Ken Anderson led the NFL in passing yards and completions twice each. He led in yards per attempt once, completion percentage three times, and passer rating four times. He made four Pro Bowls and was NFL MVP in 1981. He rushed for over 2,000 yards, with a 5.6 average and 20 TDs. In the MVP season, Anderson led all NFL QBs in rushing.

Anderson had lots of good seasons, but his legacy rests most upon that '81 season. Passing for almost three times as many TDs (29) as INTs (10), Anderson registered a league-best 98.4 passer rating, and he rushed for over 300 yards, with a 7.0 average. The Bengals went 12-4, the best record in the AFC. Anderson threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Cris Collinsworth for Cincinnati's first playoff win in franchise history. The next week, facing 35-mile-an-hour winds in the Freezer Bowl, Anderson passed for two more TDs, leading the Bengals to Super Bowl XVI, where he faced his old coach, Bill Walsh.

As an assistant in Cincinnati, Walsh scouted and recruited Anderson to the Bengals. Leading up to the conference championship games, Walsh told reporters, "Anderson is the best pure forward passer the game has seen for many years." The 49ers won the Super Bowl, 26-21. Anderson passed for 300 yards and 2 TDs, rushing for a third, but he also threw 2 interceptions.

Anderson fell off the Hall of Fame ballot recently, but he's an oft-cited snub, especially among statheads. In 1974, he led the NFL in completions, yards, and passer rating. His numbers were even better the next year, when he again led in yards and passer rating. In the strike-shortened 1982 season, Anderson broke Sammy Baugh's 37-year-old single-season record for completion percentage, completing 70.6% of his passes. Anderson's record stood until 2009, when Drew Brees finally broke it.

Close Call: Definitely the 1981 season and Super Bowl XVI.

Winning Pedigree: Anderson led the Bengals to their first-ever playoff victory, but we already covered that.

You Might Not Know: Until Andy Dalton, Anderson was the only Bengal quarterback to reach the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. That's more than 40 years of team history.

10. Randall Cunningham
Philadelphia Eagles, 1985-95, Minnesota Vikings, 1997-99, Dallas Cowboys, 2000, Baltimore Ravens, 2001
29,979 yards, 207 TD, 134 INT, 81.5 rating

I've only shown passing stats above, which means we're leaving out a really important part of Cunningham's game: 4,928 rushing yards, 6.4 yards per rush, 35 rushing TDs. Six times Cunningham led all NFL quarterbacks in rushing yardage, including 1990, when he rushed for 942 yards and five TDs with an 8.0 average.

Like Donovan McNabb, Cunningham spent most of his career surrounded by mediocre offensive talent. When he finally got to play with a great supporting cast in Minnesota, a 35-year-old Cunningham led the NFL in passer rating (106.0), making his fourth Pro Bowl and third All-Pro team. It's terrifying to think what he might have produced with receivers like Randy Moss and Cris Carter when he was in his prime.

Cunningham has very impressive stats. Even without including rushes, he's +73 in TD/INT differential, better than contemporaries like Boomer Esiason (+63), Jim Kelly (+62), Warren Moon (+58), and Troy Aikman (+24), and basically the same as John Elway (+74). Cunningham passed for 3,000 yards five times, and rushed for 500 yards six times. Those numbers begin to communicate the excitement of watching Cunningham, but only just. He was the most explosive player in the league, "The Ultimate Weapon," as a Sports Illustrated cover labeled him. The dual threat he presented overwhelmed defenses, and on his best days, he seemed unstoppable.

Cunningham had trouble staying healthy, with only eight seasons in which he played at least half his team's games. But he was incredible to watch and he posted good statistics in the absence of even an average receiving corps. I'm surprised he hasn't been a stronger Hall of Fame candidate, never advancing even to the semi-finalist stage.

Close Call: The 1998 Vikings went 15-1 and lost the NFC Championship Game in overtime. A kicker who hadn't missed all season botched a 38-yard field goal, and head coach Dennis Green opted to have his record-setting offense run out the last 49 seconds rather than try to get into scoring range before overtime.

Winning Pedigree: Competing in a stacked NFC East that included three different Super Bowl winners, the Eagles won double-digit games every year from 1988-92.

You Might Not Know: Cunningham was a two-time All-America punter at UNLV.

Honorable Mentions

Doug Flutie, Boomer Esiason, and a quartet of contemporary QBs I always group together: John Brodie, Roman Gabriel, John Hadl, and Daryle Lamonica. Flutie, of course, did win several Grey Cups in the CFL. Lamonica won an AFL title with the Raiders in 1967, but they went on to lose Super Bowl II, so we don't really count that.

Philip Rivers and Tony Romo might eventually factor into a list like this, but neither one is there yet, and they're both playing at a high level, so the future is open. It's much too early to speculate on players like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:38 PM | Comments (2)

February 24, 2014

Five Games to Watch Down the Stretch

In the past 10 days, All-Star Weekend and the trade deadline have come and passed. By this point, we know who's good, who's bad, who's tanking and who has a realistic title shot. And with many playoff positions and spots up for grabs, some games in the final third of the season will take on greater importance than others. Here are five to watch, in no particular order, which will help define the playoff picture.

Miami at Indiana, March 26

I've talked about Miami and Indiana at some length on this site, and for good reason. All season, they've been two of the top, if not the top two teams, in the league by record. And furthermore, I can't ever remember a potential late-round clash that seems as inevitable as Pacers/Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals does this season.

The kings of the East will play once more after this game, on April 11, but by the last week of the season, both teams might be into rest-for-the-playoffs mode. The Pacers, to me, were slight favorites in a seven-game battle with the Heat even before the trade deadline, but Evan Turner's acquisition from the 76ers changes the equation. With Turner in the lineup, the Pacers can bring instant offense off the bench, give Lance Stephenson more rest and run with Miami's smaller lineups if need be.

Also, there's the issue of who will get home court in the playoffs between the two teams, and possibly for the NBA Finals. Miami has been looking up at Indiana in the standings all season, but there were only two games between the teams as of the start of play Sunday. Still, with Dwyane Wade's injury issues, overtaking the Pacers seems like a tough task for the Heat to achieve.

Chicago at Washington, April 5

As in every year, there's going to be seven playoff series in the Eastern Conference this year, even if one of the most mediocre top-to-bottom conferences in NBA history might not deserve eight championship contestants. Two of those seven series must be won by teams not named Indiana or Miami. These two teams, despite their offensive struggles and overall .500-ness, have just as good a shot as any of becoming a playoff series winner this season.

While Chicago was just a half-game back of Toronto for the third seed in the East before Sunday, the Bulls also face Indiana, Miami and the West's best more down the stretch than the Raptors or Wizards. Of course, given what the amazing Tom Thibodeau has already done with the Bulls after the loss of Derrick Rose and trade of Luol Deng, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Bulls somehow end up ahead of younger and more dynamic teams like Washington and Toronto.

Dallas at Memphis, April 16

In the past few weeks, with a blowout loss at the also-surging Bobcats aside, the Mavericks have been playing about as well as anyone in the league. As is their identity this season as one of the league's highest scoring teams, they've won shootouts regularly, but also can win rock fights like an 81-73 win over Indiana Feb. 12. Monta Ellis has been the star acquisition, but Jose Calderon hasn't gotten enough accolades for his 3-point prowess and stellar ability to hang on to the ball.

Yet, Dallas is still only two games ahead of Memphis as of Sunday for the last playoff spot in the ultra-deep Western Conference. Memphis is also playing better basketball of late, and has been back to its "Grit and Grind" style after being uncharacteristically bad on defense for periods of the first half of the season. Tony Allen returned for the Grizzlies Friday in Memphis' win over the Clippers, so their defense should improve that much more. The April 16 game falls on the final day of the season, and could determine the final playoff spot, or crucial seeding

Clippers at Phoenix, April 2

Phoenix has had a truly incredible season so far. Sometime this week or next, the Suns will double their projected Vegas over/under win total with over 20 games left in the season. However, the final chapter of the season could go either way for Phoenix. As of the start of play Sunday, the Suns are only 2.5 games away from being in ninth and out of the playoffs, but also 2.5 from overtaking the Clippers for the Pacific Division lead and the No. 4 seed. Goran Dragic is having an All-NBA-caliber season, the Morris brothers have improved a lot and the Suns will get Eric Bledsoe back soon.

For the Clippers, I can't shake the feeling when I watch them that they are Oklahoma City's biggest threat to win the West, but that their second unit will cost them greatly in the playoffs. Chris Paul is back, and is the best player in the league not named Durant or LeBron. Blake Griffin has been amazing as well. Yet, they haven't been particularly strong against the teams they'll have to get by to win the West, and they've lost a few games they should have won. It's very possible that those missed opportunities could cost L.A. home-court advantage in any round of the playoffs.

San Antonio at Houston, April 14

You may wonder why I haven't mentioned Oklahoma City at much particular length in this piece. That's because, despite the Thunder being only three games ahead of the Spurs for the top spot in the West, I struggle to see how OKC will be overtaken, what with Russell Westbrook having returned Thursday night against Miami and Tony Parker out indefinitely for San Antonio.

Yes, it's a mistake to really ever count the Spurs, but winning the Southwest Division over the younger, faster-paced, three-point-bombing Rockets would nevertheless be quite an achievement considering that just about everyone of consequence for the Spurs has been sidelined at some point this season. And that division race, and a possible No. 2 seed, could be up for grabs in the April 14 meeting. With Houston, point guard is the biggest worry of any spot, but Patrick Beverley looks like the best option going forward. Most of Houston's recent 8-game winning streak coincided with Beverley starting, and the Rockets have better efficiency numbers with him on the court than Lin.

Many, many more games in the season's last two months could have made this list. Of course, any game with a team in playoff contention has playoff implications. However, these five games feature some of the most compelling teams in the league, and have implications for some of the most crucial playoff spots available.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:28 AM | Comments (0)

February 21, 2014

The Not-So-Great Yankee Double Switch

One day after the 1964 World Series ended with the St. Louis Cardinals defeating the New York Yankees in seven, both Series managers were out, and one of them went to work for the team he'd just opposed. It was a bizarre exclamation point to a bizarre season, not to mention being slightly unethical.

It began because the Yankees in 1963 couldn't understand why fans wouldn't flock en masse to see a perennial winner anymore. They were desperate to cut into the popularity of the crosstown, comically inept New York Mets. It continued when the Cardinals found themselves willing to dump a general manager who'd actually rebuilt them to greatness. And, ready to cashier a mild-mannered manager some of whose veteran players thought him too weak to compete even if his younger players would have walked through a nuclear explosion for him.

Actually, it really began when the Yankees' general manager Roy Hamey, who'd succeeded George Weiss in the job after 1960, decided unexpectedly to retire following the 1963 World Series, settling for becoming a part-time scout instead. Field manager Ralph Houk, thought to have enough smarts, but freshly vanquished when the Sandy Koufax/Don Drysdale Dodgers swept the Yankees in the Series (the first time any Yankee team had ever lost a Series in four straight), was kicked upstairs to succeed Hamey. Leaving them in need of a new manager.

The Yankees couldn't help noticing the Mets' surreal popularity. Assembled from National League and other castoffs, veterans, and washed-ups for 1962, the Mets took hold of New York's heart and wouldn't let go. A lot of it had to do with their manager — Casey Stengel. The man who'd managed the Yankees to a surreal ten pennants and seven World Series rings (including a term-opening streak of five straight rings) in 12 seasons now managed the Mets to ... who knew what, other than the National League's basement?

All anyone knew was that New York (and, in fairness, many National League fans around the country) fell in love with this troupe who proved baseball's greatest traveling comedy show. "Come an' see my amazin' Mets," Stengel would hector the paying customers as they entered the Polo Grounds, the former home of the New York Giants, where the Mets played awaiting Shea Stadium's completion. "I been in this game a hundred years and I see new ways to lose I didn't know were invented yet."

Jimmy Breslin wrote a best selling book about the Original Mets. (Can't Anybody Here Play This Game.) Comedians worked the Mets into their routines. Most important, so far as the Yankees were concerned, the Mets actually began out-drawing the American League's perennial ogres. In fact, while the Yankees won that final old-guard pennant, the Mets out-drew them at home by half a million fans. In 1963, the Mets out-drew the Yankees within the same neighborhood. It never crossed the Yankees' minds that — allowing that the National League hadn't been in business in New York since the end of 1957 — the toddling Mets in their surreal incompetence seemed more human than the smugger-than-thou Yankees.

After Hamey retired and Houk moved upstairs, the number one thought on the Yankee mind — if you didn't count co-owners Dan Topping and Del Webb letting it be known that the Yankees were about to go on sale — was getting someone who had any kind of box-office appeal remotely comparable to Stengel's to manage the club. Mickey Mantle wasn't quite ready to retire. (And, in fairness, not even the most cynical Yankee boss would have let Mantle even think about managing a team when he could barely manage himself.) Neither was Whitey Ford, long the brainiest pitcher in the American League. Never mind the injuries beginning to catch up to both of them.

On the other hand, Yogi Berra had just finished 1963 as a player-coach. He was also the most popular man in a Yankee uniform who wasn't named Mantle or Ford. And, as things turned out, Berra actually had an offer on the table. The Baltimore Orioles wanted him to manage them. They figured Berra had some baseball smarts (Stengel usually called him "my assistant manager" during all those yummy 1950s seasons) and plenty of box office. General manager Lee MacPhail offered Yogi a contract. That, according to Bill Veeck (in The Hustler's Handbook), was when Houk made his move and decided Berra should be managing the Yankees.

It probably didn't hurt that Topping and Webb needed to make the Yankees just that much more attractive to potential buyers than a measly closet full of pennants and World Series titles and a legendary ballpark could do by themselves. By spring training 1964 the Yankees began showing their age. The farm system was parched enough; the few bona fide prospects in the Yankee system by the mid-1960s would prove to be journeyman major leaguers at best for one or another reason. And the coaching staff suffered a shakeup when respected pitching coach Johnny Sain was fired in favor of making Ford a pitcher-coach.

The Yankees struggled to stay on or close to the top through the first half of 1964, and a number of disgruntled players found themselves a convenient outlet for their displeasure. Houk turned out to be keeping his door open to anyone wanted to kvetch about Berra, who'd gone from teammate to boss practically overnight, and who struggled to establish his authority while his field strategies raised a few eyebrows and hackles. As Veeck would put it, "He was using his long relievers short and his short relievers long, and like all new managers he was waiting too long before he got his starting pitchers out of there.

"Still," Veeck continued, "he was operating under a major handicap. The relief pitcher who can come in over the last two innings and get the other side out can cover up a multitude of sins. Yogi didn't have him. Except for one brief period early in the season when Steve Hamilton was stopping them, and the final month of the season when they had [Pedro] Ramos, the Yankee bullpen was useless."

By August 1964, the Yankees were sold — to the Columbia Broadcasting System — but it looked like there would be no Yankee pennant for only the third time since 1949. Making matters testier, the sale to CBS itself proved controversial before the network exercised one muscle of its new ownership.

American League president Joe Cronin (himself a Hall of Fame shortstop) tried to ram the sale through by way of a telephone/telegraph vote—against league rules, which required a vote at an official, formal, in-person meeting unless the vote was known to be unanimous in the making. Two owners—Charlie Finley of the Kansas City Athletics, Arthur Allyn of the Chicago White Sox—were ready to vote no to the sale. Eight teams needed to approve the deal. And Baltimore owner Joe Iglehart, whose employee Berra might have become if Lee MacPhail had had his way, was considered the swing vote who just might join Finley and Allyn. Might.

But Iglehart had one whale of a conflict of interest of his own: he not only owned the Orioles, he chaired CBS's Financial Board and owned considerable enough CBS stock. He ended up voting to approve the sale and unloading his Oriole ownership posthaste. And even that was nothing compared to the devious double switch the Yankees planned to execute at Berra's expense.

The Yankees were still struggling to stay at the top of the race at the time of the CBS deal. And Houk (who'd once been a third-string Yankee catcher, behind Berra and Charley Silvera) decided he was going to dump Berra at season's end no matter how it ended. Veeck swore Houk told CBS the Yankees weren't going to win the pennant and it was all Yogi's fault and everything would be rosy once the Yankees could dump him at season's end. What Houk didn't tell anyone, publicly, anyway, was that he had a potential successor in mind already.

Johnny Keane, managing the 1964 Cardinals, was struggling likewise. Hard enough trying to keep the Philadelphia Phillies in sight while the Phillies looked to be running away with the pennant, about which more anon. But Keane — respected as a players' manager who was particularly adept at shepherding young talent, particularly young black talent — suffered a similar malady to Berra: players finding an open door in the front office to gripe. What Keane had that Berra didn't, though, was a boss who let those players air it out but stood by his manager regardless: general manager Bing Devine.

By August 1964, the Cardinals were still struggling to stay in the National League race despite the deal soon to become infamy in Chicago Cubs lore: the swap of Cardinals pitcher Ernie Broglio for young Cubs outfielder Lou Brock — despite warnings (mostly from Lew Burdette, whom the Cubs had acquired from the Cardinals before the Brock-Broglio swap) that Broglio's arm was just about dead. For whatever fool reason, the Cardinals dumped Devine. And now they were also preparing to dump his manager, even going so far as to reach out to Leo Durocher, then a coach for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Apparently, both the Cardinals' and the Yankees' front offices were convinced by now that their teams wouldn't be seen in October and thus would come the cover under which they could change their managers without a big stink. And assorted published sources since have intimated that, when contacted informally by Houk, Keane said yes, he'd be interested in taking the Yankee job if Berra really was going to be executed at season's end.

What happened next upended just about everyone in baseball:

* The Phillies fell into that infamous September collapse, the notorious ten-game losing streak that sent them reeling from a six-game lead and the pennant practically in the bank to a closing weekend in which the National League race could theoretically end in a three-way tie between themselves, the Cardinals, and the Cincinnati Reds, who were trying to win one for cancer-stricken manager Fred Hutchinson.

* The last National League team standing proved to be the Cardinals — and they had to win on the final day of the regular season. The Mets, of all people, beat them in the first two games of that season-ending set, including stout Met left-hander Al Jackson (a Stengel favorite who often pitched in hard luck) out-dueling Bob Gibson to throw a 1-0 shutout in the set opener. (The game's only run came in the third inning, when Mets first baseman Ed Kranepool singled home George Altman.) On the same weekend, the Phillies lost their final two to the Reds, letting both finish tied for second, one game back of the Cardinals.

* The Yankees took over first place in the American League between August and September, aided by two pitchers: rookie call-up Mel Stottlemyre, who went 9-3 with a 2.06 ERA down the stretch including a five-game winning streak; and, veteran pickup Pedro Ramos, a journeyman starter who proved lights out out of the bullpen, saving seven key September games. They took first place to stay September 17, but still had to ward off continued tight challenges from the White Sox and the Orioles.

* The Cardinals won that seven-game World Series, crowned in Game Seven when — with the Yankees threatening to tie the game at seven in the ninth — Keane refused to look at his bullpen while letting Bob Gibson finish what he started, saying immortally after it ended, "I had a commitment to his heart."

And the day after the Series, both managers were out.

Cardinals owner Gussie Busch called a press conference to announce his intention to re-hire Keane. Keane showed up at the press conference, too — with a letter of resignation Bill Veeck swore had been written before the World Series. In New York, Berra went to the Yankee offices thinking he'd been called in to start making plans for the 1965 season ... and came out with his head in a guillotine's catch basket. Bless his soul, Yogi probably had no clue at the time to the wheeling and dealing that preceded it, including the prospect of Keane, the man who'd just defeated him in the World Series, becoming his successor, which is exactly what happened a few days after the double switch.

What nobody in the Yankee hierarchy ever explained satisfactorily was this: If Berra was such a horrible manager, how the hell did the Yankees manage to win that pennant by winning thirty out of forty-three games, including one eleven-game winning streak and fifteen of their final nineteen games. "Unless I have been sadly misinformed by all those sensation-seeking columnists," Veeck wrote, "the manager during that stretch run was Yogi Berra."

The Aftermath

Bing Devine — He ended 1964 by getting himself hired by the Mets to succeed George Weiss, the former Yankee general manager who'd become president of the newborn Mets for 1962. Devine would finish what Weiss started, building the groundwork for shoring up the Mets' farm system, reaching for more younger talent, pitching in particular, and thus planting the seed that would become the 1969 Miracle Mets. The irony: Not only did Devine prove the master builder of the Cardinals' 1964 and 1967 Series winner, he'd return to the Cardinals to help them shore up their 1968 pennant winner, returning after 1967 when Stan Musial decided he wasn't comfortable being the team's general manager.

Devine stayed until 1978. In the interim, he was strong-armed into the deal he lived to regret: Busch ordered him to trade Steve Carlton in 1972, after Carlton completed his first 20-win season but held out in a salary dispute. The trade of Carlton to the Phillies for Rick Wise helped make the Phillies contenders while helping push the Cardinals back to also-ran status. Devine would move to the Montreal Expos as director of player development and then the Phillies as a scout; by the turn of the century he was back in St. Louis as an advisor to general manager Walt Jocketty. Devine died in 2007 at 90.

Yogi Berra — He also moved to the crosstown Mets, reuniting with former manager Stengel as first base coach. Berra would hold that job, winning a World Series ring on the first base coaching line for the 1969 Miracle Mets, and become the Mets' manager following the unexpected death (a second heart attack) of Gil Hodges in spring 1972. Berra would manage the Mets to an unlikely pennant in 1973 — they opened September last in the NL East, won the division at the last minute, just about, then took the League Championship Series from the Cincinnati Reds before losing the Series in seven to Oakland — but he would be fired in 1975 when the team's 1970s collapse continued in earnest. In time he'd return to the Yankees as a coach and as one of George Steinbrenner's revolving door managers, fired after being promised a full season, resulting in an estrangement that endured until the late 1990s.

Johnny Keane — The mild-mannered Keane learned the hard way he'd taken on a white elephant in 1965. Mantle's long-troublesome legs and hip finally caught up to him in earnest. (He probably should have retired after 1964; biographer Jane Leavy isn't the only one to point out the Yankees needed his box office appeal.) Ford's hip and then elbow became more bothersome. Unconscionably, too, the Yankees kept the true seriousness of a wrist injury (it turned out to be fractured, sapping the man's long ball power at last) from Roger Maris. And the parching of the farm system proved more chronic during Keane's brief tenure.

He practiced a typically National League style of run-and-gun, station-to-station baseball that didn't mesh with the Yankees' having been built as always “to going for the big inning,” as first baseman Joe Pepitone would phrase it. (Jim Bouton, by then beset with the first of the arm troubles that would reduce him to marginal relief pitching, would call it “sacrificing a season to win a game.”) The Yankees finished 1965 in sixth place and opened 1966 going 4-16. Keane was fired in favor of Ralph Houk, who'd had it with front office work; Houk would manage the 1966 Yankees all the way to last place —a slot in the standings the franchise hadn't seen since 1912.

Keane accepted a scouting job with the California Angels after the season—shortly before his unexpected death of a heart attack. At age 55, and looking about 20 years older.

Ralph Houk — Houk returned to the Yankee dugout after Keane's firing, succeeded as general manager by Lee MacPhail — the man whose bid to hire Yogi Berra to manage the Orioles for 1964 provoked Houk to name Yogi the Yankee manager in the first place. As general manager, Houk ran afoul of baseball government when he attempted to fine holdout pitcher Jim Bouton $100 a day for every day Bouton held out.

When he returned as manager, Houk would never again manage the Yankees to a pennant, though he would return to his former ways as a players' manager who refused to criticize them publicly — even though he was just as notorious for reading them the riot act behind closed doors. But he did stay long enough to see the continuing seeds of the coming Yankee resurrection join the team before he resigned after 1973. And, he handled things with strained but real dignity when two Yankee pitchers, Fritz Peterson and Mike Kekich, swapped wives and children in spring 1972.

Houk took the managing job in Detroit and helped shepherd the Tigers back to respectability, including presiding over Mark (The Bird) Fidrych's sensational rookie season and guiding coming stars such as Alan Trammell, Lou Whittaker, and Jack Morris to full major league readiness. He retired after 1978 but returned to manage the Boston Red Sox in 1980, and helped shepherd another rebuilding team, bringing home three winning records before stepping down after 1984 in favor of John McNamara, who'd manage the team Houk helped rebuild to the 1986 pennant.

Houk would serve as a Minnesota special advisor from 1987 to 1989 before retiring for good. He died in 2010, four years after his wife, Bette, passed away.

CBS — The Tiffany Network CBS might have been, but the network who opened 1964 with a bang when the Beatles made their first live American television appearances on The Ed Sullivan Show proved to know about as much about running a baseball team as the Beatles knew about playing the game.

CBS was caught flatfoot when baseball instituted the amateur draft, taking away the once-fabled Yankee ability to sign anyone they pleased when they pleased and where they pleased, a key part of their championship foundations. Barely able to navigate these new waters, and with a still-struggling farm system, the Yankees under CBS developed extremely few viable major leaguers. Ill-fated catcher Thurman Munson would be one, drafted in 1968, and he did prove the first building block in restoring the Yankees to greatness, his solid career (he was the American League's Most Valuable Player in 1976 — the year the Yankees returned to the World Series) ending in the crash of his Cessna jet in 1979. But Munson was an exception.

The network also stood flatfoot when it came to dumping two beloved Yankee announcers. Longtime lead announcer Mel Allen got it in 1964. Allen himself later revealed the firing was instigated by then-sponsor Ballantine Beer in a cost-cutting move; the brewer would be out of business as an independent by 1969, selling to Falstaff. He'd remain a Yankee loyalist, though, and eventually forged a second career as the original and beloved voice of television's This Week in Baseball.

Another broadcast legend, Red Barber, got his in late 1966. Once a legendary Brooklyn Dodgers announcer (he quit when the Gillette Safety Razor Company, sponsors of the World Series, refused to raise his Series pay after several years), Barber in September 1966 was quietly aghast when the Yankee collapse resulted in one late September game's paid attendance of (count 'em) 413. It provoked the courtly Barber to ask for a camera pan of the park, which was denied him, prompting him to tell his viewers, “It is the smallest crowd in the history of Yankee Stadium, and this crowd is the story, not the game.”

The problem was that one of the 413 was CBS executive Mike Burke, attending his first Yankee game after being named the team's president. One week later, the season over, Burke ordered Barber to the CBS offices and put Barber's head into the noose. Barber retired from full-time baseball broadcasting after that.

By 1973, CBS was only too willing to sell the team to a group led by Cleveland shipbuilder George Steinbrenner; the Yankees finished higher than fourth place only once (in 1970) while CBS owned the team. CBS's exit would open the way to another wild and crazy Yankee era, but there would be those who would say not even The Boss's extraterrestrial King-of-Hearts ways would equal the wheeling, dealing, and backstabbing that animated the Yogi Berra-Johnny Keane double switch of 1964.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 12:18 PM | Comments (0)

February 20, 2014

Foul Territory: Crack to the Future

* The NBA is a Hard Habit to Break, Just Like Crack, or Rehab-la Espanol? — Former Los Angeles Laker forward Lamar Odom signed a two-month contract to play for Laboral Kutxa of the Spanish Division. The 34-year-old Odom is hoping for a future comeback in the States, so when it comes to the NBA, Odom is glad to say he'll take another crack at it.

* Gonzo' Journalism — Tony Gonzalez will join CBS' pre-game "The NFL Today" broadcast, while Dan Marino and Shannon Sharpe are out. Marino vowed to find analyst work elsewhere, while Sharpe promised to find an outlet for his love of football, vowing not only to make headlines, but subtitles, as well.

* Re-Assembly Hall, or if You Asked a Former Indiana Coach "What's Up, Knight?", He Surely Wouldn't Reply "The Ceiling" — Tuesday's Iowa-Indiana in Bloomington was postponed after a piece of metal fell from the ceiling and damaged seating. In honor of Bobby Knight, the seats will be thrown away.

* Ligety Splits — Ted Ligety won Wednesday's giant slalom, becoming only the second American to win two golds in Olympic alpine skiing. Ligety built a huge lead in the first run and held on to win with a combined time of 2 minutes, 45.29 seconds, leaving him with 12 minutes, 14.81 seconds of fame left.

* Ole Crap! That's a Lot of Medals — Norway's Ole Einar Bjoerndalen set a Winter Olympics record, earning his 13th medal with a gold in the biathlon mixed relay. Russian president Vladimir Putin was impressed, but then demanded that someone explain the difference in a "biathlete" and a "bi-athlete."

* When it Comes to Tweeting, It's No Surprise He Wants to "Table" It — Louisville's Rick Pitino said on Wednesday that social media "poisons" the minds of players, and has banned his players from tweeting. Pitino went on to praise the virtues of face-to-face communication, both vertically and horizontally.

* Baltimore Ragin', He Breaks the Law Better Than He Breaks Tackles — Ray Rice and his fiancee were arrested on Saturday for simple assault after an altercation at a casino in Atlantic City. Allegedly, the two struck each other after a night of poker filled with bad hands. The two apparently asked for the other's hand in marriage, and got it, in spades.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:26 PM | Comments (0)

February 19, 2014

The Death of the Middle Class Rivalry

There is a divide growing within this country. Where once existed a thriving class between the elite and the ordinary gasps a shrinking middle ground.

What happened to college basketball's middle class rivalry?

Duke and Maryland met for the last scheduled time Saturday in an entertaining if otherwise unremarkable game. (To be fair, the two teams could still easily meet in the ACC tournament and much less easily meet in the NCAA tournament.) The Blue Devils fought off a late Terp scare to defeat the game-but-less-heralded visitors. It was just like many previous chapters in the series.

The shadow of recency may shuffle our memories, but there was a time last decade when Duke and Maryland played some of each season's best games. But unlike Duke/Carolina, college basketball's polite ruling elite of rivalries, Duke/Maryland seemed to come armed with an edge of working-class nasty.

The series peaked in 2001 when the squads played four times, including Duke's improbable comebacks from 10 down with 55 seconds to go in College Park and 22 down in the Final Four. Maryland earned some momentum the next year by winning the national championship, and the two sides played to a virtual stalemate for the better part of the decade, including several Terrapin victories in vaunted Cameron Indoor Stadium.

But this particular history is not the point. There are countless Duke/Marylands in the rivalry history books whose existence couldn't survive the caustic assault of time.

As the recent wave of conference realignment has shown, there are very few college sports rivalries with the gravity to survive on their own merit. In fact, I will argue there are only two: Duke/Carolina and Louisville/Kentucky, the latter of which is an all-business, non-conference contract.

The college basketball landscape is fully post-apocalyptic. The two great leagues of my lifetime changed overnight as if some great earthquake rewrote geography. The Big East is in two pieces, one of which is going to crown Creighton's Doug McDermott as its player of the year, while the other includes road trips to Houston and SMU. Meanwhile, Syracuse's undefeated ACC record includes wins over Notre Dame and Pitt.

Many basketball dogs have been wagged into submission by their football-money tails.

Look, I am hardly a change-fearing heel digger. Change often brings growth and improvement, and to that end, I'm sure some new rivalries-of-the-moment will emerge in these shuffled deck conferences.

But all of this feels so temporary. The players of quality are gone within five months of their introduction. Conferences are being reconstituted en masse. At this point, the college basketball regular season is little more than a training camp for some kind of post-AAU/pre-NBA purgatory showcase.

One of my favorite "rivalries" in sports is really no rivalry at all. Like Duke/Maryland, UNC/Clemson pits a legendary ACC program against one of the "rest." But the similarity ends there, as the Terps earned Duke's 2000s attention by winning on Tobacco Road, while Clemson, in 57 tries, has never won in Chapel Hill.

The context of these matchups adds untold richness to sports. Every game has its own context that creates narrative starting points like the blind bets in poker. For the North Carolina players, every home date against Clemson must bring pressure and anxiety, as that group tries like mad to avoid being responsible for ending the streak. On the other bench, each year the Clemson players have an opportunity, no matter what else has gone on that season, to earn a place in history. That history settles into layers of context that we can excavate and appreciate like a geologist.

Realistically, Maryland had little choice when presented with the opportunity to jump to the Big Ten next year. By all accounts its athletic department was broke, and more people will watch the Terps' football team get dump-trucked in Columbus and Ann Arbor than in Tallahassee and Clemson.

But let's take caution. What might have been the best matchup in college basketball 12 years ago won't exist going forward, and there really wasn't much debate. The real power in college sports belongs to an elite few, and they aren't doing business on the hardwood.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 5:00 PM | Comments (0)

February 18, 2014

Best Performances By Super Bowl-Winning Quarterbacks

Twenty-six times in 48 Super Bowls, a quarterback has been named Most Valuable Player. Not all Super Bowl-winning QBs play well in the big game, and not all MVP performances are created equal. So which were the greatest games by a quarterback in Super Bowl history? Our top 10 is below.

10. Joe Flacco, Super Bowl XLVII

Baltimore Ravens 34, San Francisco 49ers 31

22-33, 287 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 124.2 rating

The 49ers had one of the league's best defenses in 2012, ranked second in fewest points allowed (17.1/game). The 34 points they allowed in Super Bowl XLVII tied their second-highest total of the season, and Flacco's 124.2 passer rating was the highest San Francisco allowed all season. He couldn't have picked a better time to have a big game. The Super Bowl victory earned Flacco a huge contract, one that pays him like a top-10 QB.

Of course, this is the infamous "Who Turned Out the Lights?" Super Bowl. In the first half, before the power outage, Flacco had 187 net yards and all three TDs, with a 135.8 passer rating. After the break, he netted just 87 yards, with no scores and a 90.2 rating — solid, but not the same superstar level he showed at the beginning of the game.

Signature play: Near the end of the first half, on the first play after the two-minute warning, Baltimore had 3rd-and-10 at its own 44-yard line. Flacco completed a deep pass to Jacoby Jones for a 56-yard touchdown and a 21-3 lead.

9. Doug Williams, Super Bowl XXII

Washington 42, Denver 10

18-29, 340 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 127.9 rating

In 1988, it was remarkable for a black quarterback to start in the Super Bowl; it had never happened before. Leading up to the game, Williams was flooded with attention, generally neither positive nor negative so much as curious. The famous story is that a reporter asked him, "How long have you been a black quarterback?" Other than maybe Len Dawson on the eve of Super Bowl IV, I doubt any Super Bowl quarterback has faced so much pressure and scrutiny.

As the game began, Williams didn't exactly put the controversy to rest. Washington fell behind 10-0, and Williams left the game with a hyperextended knee. He returned to direct a 35-point second quarter that included 357 yards of offense and 4 TD passes by Williams. There was a short TD pass to Clint Didier from the red zone, a medium-range touchdown to Gary Clark, and two deep bombs to Ricky Sanders. Facing the most pressure of his career, Williams played the game of his life.

Signature play: The first touchdown pass, 80 yards to Sanders. A perfect deep ball along the right sideline, caught in stride and run in for the first of many touchdowns. Another long score to Sanders was the nail in the coffin for the reeling Broncos, Washington's fourth TD in a row.

8. Terry Bradshaw, Super Bowl XIII

Pittsburgh Steelers 35, Dallas Cowboys 31

17-30, 318 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 119.2 rating

Terry Bradshaw played in four Super Bowls. He posted a passing rating over 100 in all four, and the Steelers won each time. That included back-to-back MVPs in Super Bowls XIII and XIV, and Bradshaw made some negative plays in both games. He threw three interceptions in SB XIV. Against the Cowboys the year before, he had a pick, and a fumble returned for a touchdown.

Bradshaw made enough positive plays to overcome his mistakes. I've been naming signature plays, and it's tough because all these QBs made great throws, but Terry Bradshaw and his receivers combined for more famous plays in the Super Bowl than anyone else. That's most true of Super Bowl X, when Lynn Swann's acrobatics made him the first receiver to win Super Bowl MVP, but SB XIII isn't far behind. Right after the fumble return TD gave Dallas a 14-7 lead, Bradshaw rebounded with a 75-yard TD pass to John Stallworth, but it's not even his greatest pass from that game.

Signature play: Bradshaw's final TD pass, to Swann in the end zone, was a thing of beauty. Swann's regular-season statistics are nothing special, but you watch his Super Bowl performances and wonder how anyone stopped him. Bradshaw's throw was pretty exceptional, too.

7. Troy Aikman, Super Bowl XXVII

Dallas Cowboys 52, Buffalo Bills 17

22-30, 273 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 140.7 rating

This was an ugly Super Bowl. The Cowboys had a punt blocked deep in their own territory, and Leon Lett fumbled an easy touchdown at about the six-inch line, but they won a blowout because the Bills committed 9 turnovers. Jim Kelly and Frank Reich threw 2 interceptions apiece, and the Bills lost 5 fumbles.

Despite Dallas' defensive dominance, Troy Aikman was named MVP. Aikman raised his level of play for the postseason, and the more important the game, the more he raised it. The Cowboys were 11-5 in the playoffs with Aikman, and his playoff stats actually are better than his regular-season averages: 281/457, 3194 yards, 16 TD, 14 INT, 81.6 rating.

Signature play: Up 31-17 in the fourth quarter, Aikman hit Alvin Harper for a 45-yard touchdown that put the game away. Michael Irvin caught two TDs from Aikman, but the downfield bombs to Harper were the memorable game-breakers for the Jimmy Johnson dynasty.

6. Jim Plunkett, Super Bowl XV

Oakland Raiders 27, Philadelphia Eagles 10

13-21, 261 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 145.0 rating

The 1980 Philadelphia Eagles are underrated. That was a great team, and in particular, it was a great defense. It's underrated because the Raiders tore it apart in Super Bowl XV, and did so with a journeyman QB most of the league thought was washed up. During the regular season, the Eagles held opposing passers to a 57.8 passer rating. Jim Plunkett dropped a 145.0 on them.

The Raiders' supporting cast provided a lot of help. Plunkett was backed by two Hall of Fame offensive lineman, a star receiver in Cliff Branch, and a defensive that picked off Ron Jaworski three times. Plunkett was set up for success, but he took full advantage, and played the game of his life on the biggest stage, against the league's best defense. Three years later, Plunkett played well (172 yds, TD, 97.4 rating) against Washington in Super Bowl XVIII.

Signature play: Without a doubt, it's the 80-yard touchdown pass to Kenny King. Up 7-0 in the first quarter, Plunkett avoided a sack and threw downfield to King, who raced down the sideline to bury Philadelphia in an early hole. At the time, this was the longest play in Super Bowl history.

5. Aaron Rodgers, Super Bowl XLV

Green Bay Packers 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 25

24-39, 304 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 111.5 rating

This game is memorable for all the things that went wrong for the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers played so well they still won. All-Pro defensive back Charles Woodson broke his collarbone, and the Packers nearly squandered a 21-3 lead after he left. Veteran receiver Donald Driver got hurt, and the other receivers dropped about 70 passes. The Packers got hit for seven penalties, including three 15-yarders.

Rodgers passed for 304 yards, with 3 TDs and a 111.5 passer rating, against the best defense in the NFL, and that's even with all those drops. If his receivers had played better, it easily could have been 400 yards, 4 TDs, and a rating somewhere in the neighborhood of 140. Against the best defense in the NFL.

Signature play: With Green Bay leading 28-25 and six minutes left, the Packers had third-and-10 at their own 25-yard-line. Rodgers completed a 31-yard pass over the middle to Greg Jennings. Rather than going three-and-out, the Packers got a 10-play drive that lasted 5:19 and added a field goal.

Alternatively, the signature play might be the first drop, by James Jones on a sure touchdown.

4. Joe Montana, Super Bowl XXIV

San Francisco 49ers 55, Denver Broncos 10

22-29, 297 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, 147.6 rating

The biggest blowout in Super Bowl history, highlighted by Montana's five TD passes, a record at the time. Jerry Rice, the MVP of Super Bowl XXIII the year before, caught 7 passes for 148 yards and 3 TDs. Brent Jones and John Taylor also caught TD passes.

Joe Montana's legend built slowly. The Catch and Super Bowl XVI brought him some attention, but San Francisco slumped to 3-6 the next season, so skeptics could dismiss Montana as a fluke. The 1984 regular season and Super Bowl XIX established his greatness once and for all, and XXIII kept his job safe from Steve Young for a few more years. But I believe it was this game, Montana's fourth championship and third Super Bowl MVP, that really solidified popular opinion that Montana was the best QB in history.

Signature play: Any of the touchdowns to Rice. They were all great throws that highlighted the perfect fit between Montana and Bill Walsh's "West Coast" Offense.

3. Phil Simms, Super Bowl XXI

New York Giants 39, Denver Broncos 20

22-25, 268 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 150.9 rating

Three of the top 10 Super Bowl QB performances listed here feature a common opponent: the 1980s Denver Broncos. Simms still holds the record for the highest passer rating in a Super Bowl. The second-highest belongs to Joe Montana in Super Bowl XXIV, against the same team three years later. Doug Williams' 127.9 in Super Bowl XXII is the sixth-highest.

You could write these off based on the low quality of opponent, but I don't think that's right. A game like Simms had is impressive against any NFL team, to say nothing of a conference champion, with the bright lights and pressure of a Super Bowl. Likewise for Montana and Williams: they were so dominant, you can't leave them off the list.

If a Super Bowl you were losing at halftime can be a clinic, this was a clinic. Simms had as many TD passes as incompletions. He also rushed for 25 yards.

Signature play: The tipped TD pass to Phil McConkey may be more memorable for fans, but the signature play for Simms was his go-ahead touchdown pass to Mark Bavaro in the third quarter.

2. Joe Montana, Super Bowl XIX

San Francisco 49ers 38, Miami Dolphins 16

24-35, 331 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 127.2 rating

Dan Marino had so much hype coming into this Super Bowl. He had perhaps the best regular season in NFL history, breaking the record for passing yards and blowing away the TD record, then following it up with outstanding performance in the AFC playoffs. But on Super Bowl Sunday, Montana outplayed his younger rival and was the clear star of the game.

Montana's 331 passing yards set a Super Bowl record, as did his 127.2 passer rating, but he devastated the Dolphins as much with his running as his throws. He ran five times for 59 yards — another Super Bowl record, and still the most ever by a winning QB — and scored on a six-yard scramble. It was a brilliant all-around performance, against a solid defense.

Signature play: When I think about this game, I always remember Montana's runs. Most people would probably say the long touchdown pass to Carl Monroe, but for me, it might be Montana's second scramble, for 15 yards and a first down. When he broke off his second long run, you knew the Dolphins were in trouble, because they couldn't defend both the run and the pass.

1. Steve Young, Super Bowl XXIX

San Francisco 49ers 49, San Diego Chargers 26

24-36, 325 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, 134.8 rating

I'm not a 49ers fan. The Niners get three of the top four positions because Joe Montana is probably the greatest quarterback in Super Bowl history, and Young ... well, let's talk about Steve Young's Super Bowl. He threw six touchdown passes, a record that will probably never be broken. Montana is the only other player with even 5 TD passes in a Super Bowl, and — this year's results notwithstanding — the Super Bowl is more competitive now, with few blowouts or really bad defenses. Young was also the leading rusher in Super Bowl XXIX, with five runs for 49 yards, more than Ricky Watters or Natrone Means.

Montana in Super Bowl XIX and Young in XXIX are the two leading rushers among Super Bowl-winning QBs, but I'm not placing a premium on scrambling or mobile QBs. Young has a strong argument just based on his 325 passing yards and 6 TDs, while Montana would be a clear top-10 even if he hadn't run at all. But we don't usually look at running stats for this position, and an extra 49 yards is a pretty big deal. The Niners gained 449 yards of offense, and Steve Young accounted for 359 of it, 80%.

Signature play: On the third play of the game, Young hit Jerry Rice over the middle for a 44-yard touchdown. The only other Super Bowl in which the tone was set so quickly was probably this year's, Super Bowl XLVIII. But the safety on the first play of the game was more about a mistake by the Broncos, whereas Young and Rice showed immediately that the Chargers weren't going to stop them.

* * *

There are a lot of fine performances and great quarterbacks who didn't make this list. I would have loved to name Terry Bradshaw more than once, and it doesn't feel right that Bart Starr isn't listed. Sixteen MVP-winning performances didn't make the cut, and that doesn't even include strong non-MVP performances like Russell Wilson against the Broncos or Tom Brady against the Eagles.

You're looking at a really high standard here: the 10 greatest performances by Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:40 AM | Comments (1)

February 17, 2014

Five Questions For the NHL's Second Half

The Olympic hockey tournament is halfway over, and as we enter into the elimination medal rounds, we're also only about a week away from the return of NHL hockey. That means that the trade deadline and stretch run are on deck, and we can expect to hit the ground running. What are the big storylines running through the remainder of the 2013-14 season? Let's take a look.

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning thrive with the return of Steven Stamkos?

The Lightning survived the horrific broken leg of their best player and leading scorer, pushing to a solid second-place standing behind balanced scoring and the rise of goaltender Ben Bishop. Tampa accomplished this with an all-hands approach. However, it's human nature to exhale just a little bit when you get to the finish line — in this case, it's the return of Stamkos. It's up to coach Jon Cooper to make sure that the entire roster keeps the intensity up when No. 91 returns to the lineup.

How dangerous is a healthy San Jose Sharks team?

The San Jose Sharks flew out of the gate despite having injuries throughout the lineup. As the season progress, the injury report got worse and worse, so much so that there was a point not too long ago when the team was missing seven of its regular forwards (Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Martin Havlat, Tommy Wingels, Raffi Torres, and Tyler Kennedy). While rookie Tomas Hertl may be out for the remainder of the year, the Sharks should get top liner Logan Couture back while the rest of the walking wounded have come back one by one. With the roster nearly fully restored, it's time to see what the real Sharks team is capable of — and whether October was a fluke.

Can the Anaheim Ducks keep it up?

From November until the Olympic break, the Anaheim Ducks were pretty much the class of the NHL. Though they tailed off a little bit in their final 10 games, the Ducks have paced themselves to win the Presidents' Trophy and set the expectations high for Ryan Getzlaf and company. With a diverse, deep attack and perhaps the best goaltending tandem in the league, Anaheim is remarkably dangerous. The only question is whether or not they peaked too early.

Will injuries do in the Detroit Red Wings?

Injuries are the story of this Detroit Red Wings season. Pavel Datsyuk is far from 100% and Henrik Zetterberg had to pull out of the Olympics. Already hovering around .500 for much of the season, the Wings are in dangerous waters. Last year, a late-season winning streak extended their run of consecutive playoff seasons. With their two best forwards ailing, is it time for Hockeytown to take a break from the post-season?

Who will rise above the pack in the Eastern Conference?

The new playoff format breaks things down into divisions but the bottom line is this — when you look at a points-per-game perspective seven teams are essentially battling for the bottom playoff spots out east. At a time like this, all it takes is one hot run to leap above the pack, then essentially .500 play to maintain it. Similarly, one extended losing streak could spell doom. While there's still some intrigue in the Western Conference, the Eastern Conference is going to be a wild ride to the end.

Posted by Mike Chen at 12:22 PM | Comments (0)

February 13, 2014

Thoughts on Michael Sam and the Media

I assume anyone reading this has not been living under the proverbial rock, so there's no need for me to explain who Michael Sam is and why he's a big deal.

But what I've found interesting is the reaction, mostly negative, to Sports Illustrated's coverage of NFL front office reaction to Sam coming out. One such piece is from Stefan Fatsis, a writer I greatly admire. I'll take Fatsis any day in a sportswriter fantasy league over Peter King, whom Fatsis is compelling me to defend. Shudder.

Fatsis' main beef of SI is a lack of sample size, lack of gravitas among those that were interviewed, and using anonymous sources. SI anonymously interviewed mid-level front office types and scouts, and one former GM. They all thought Sam's draft stock would drop with the announcement, pretty much all chirped that the media circus that might surround Sam would be too much of a distraction, and gave themselves plausible deniability (get ready for tons more of that in the weeks and months to come) that Sam is an overrated player anyway.

Fatsis: "That's a bunch of second-tier personnel and coaching staffers, and one guy who isn't in the league anymore. Not a single one of those people will make the final call on whether to draft Michael Sam, and they may not have any meaningful influence at all. But Thamel and Evans drew some very big conclusions from their comments. It's not only possible but likely that, again, not a single one of those assertions will come to pass. But with its first-out-of-the-gate story, SI helped shift, or at least bifurcate, the conversation."

I hate to break it to Fatsis, but it is indeed pretty likely that those assertions will come to pass. It's an odd argument that Fatsis is making. That because these guys aren't final-decision makers, there's no reason to put any stock in what they say.

What reason do we have to believe the people who do make the final decisions feel any differently? These are all homeboys. I don't think you'll find too many odd-couple pairings among NFL coaching staffs and front offices. They are echo chambers. If anything, team owners and coaches are even more likely to either a) be unwilling to rock the current culture boat as they perceive it, b) have anti-gay sentiments in their own right, or c) both.

Fatsis then pilloried SI, and especially Peter King, for getting all their comments anonymously. In King's case, he granted his sources anonymity upfront.

"If his sources had spoken on the record and said something mealy-mouthed or had outright lied, King would have performed a journalistic service far greater than letting them shiv Michael Sam in his pursuit of "the truth."

What?! "Something mealy-mouthed or outright lies" is exactly what would have happened if King had spoken to these people on the record. That would have been the opposite of doing Michael Sam a service. He deserves to know what he's up against. Fatsis puts "the truth" in quotes. In the piece, he gives more stock to meaningless platitudes stated on-the-record than what people are saying off of it. It all makes Fatsis seem naive.

"Moreover, by offering anonymity, King, Thamel, and Evans were actually encouraging their sources to talk smack about Sam."

True, and we agree that talking smack is bad, but I don't even think Fatsis is suggesting these sources weren't saying what they feel. ("Oh wow. SI is letting me speak anonymously. I think Sam is a great football player and I think having an openly gay player is an important harbinger of progress, but I'm gonna piss on him instead. Anonymity compels me.")

Of course it's better to have an idea of what NFL power brokers really think rather than what they're willing to say to the cameras. To suggest otherwise is bizarre.

"If both reporter and source were convinced that anything but a politically correct opinion would be pilloried, and therefore anonymity was essential for any conversation to occur, that set some pretty low expectations for the thought capacity of NFL executives."

NFL Executives have richly earned their small-minded reputation.

"Maybe King's cynical "guarantee" is correct, and [the coaches and owners who have expressed support for Sam] words are in fact sugarcoated and meaningless."

They are sugarcoated and meaningless until one of these guys actually drafts Sam.

"NFL clubs are pragmatic, but they're not uniformly retrograde. Owners have different priorities than scouts and personnel assistants. They want to win, but they can see the arc of history bending, too."

They are something close to uniformly retrograde. Unlike Fatsis' rose-colored assessment, I'm not sure there's a Branch Rickey in the lot. He's basically asking — counting on — the heroes of progress to come from the kingmakers of the NFL, which is a bit like setting up Sam Walton as the next hero of the working class.

The narrative I keep seeing on Twitter and elsewhere that, when it comes to the NFL, it's not the players who are the problem, it's the coaches and front offices. It makes sense that a bunch of 50-something white dudes would have a harder time accepting gay players than 20-something teammates (and by all accounts, Sam was completely accepted at Missouri). Fatsis' piece is an off-base rebuttal to that seemingly obvious observation.

But yes, owners and coaches toe the politically correct line (which is why they are already so quick to bash the SEC Defensive Player of the Year on football grounds), and that may be what forces the sea change most of us want to see in the NFL and society at large. The issue with Sam (and Jason Collins) is that they came out while they were not under contract. It's either going to take a player who is under contract, or one so talented that his skill cannot be plausibly denied, to change that. I hope I'm wrong, but I'd say it's at least even money that Sam does not play a down in the NFL in 2014.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 6:23 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR 2014 Season Predictions

* Kyle Busch leads 54 laps and passes Ryan Newman on the final lap to win the Daytona 500, his first Sprint Cup win at the season opener. In a post-race interview with Erin Andrews, Busch announces that he and his wife Samantha are pregnant with their first child. Busch beams to Andrews that, "I'm sure I'll be a good father, because I know what it's like to be a baby."

Busch finishes second in the Sprint Cup point standings, winning five races, and caps his year with a win at Homestead and his first Sprint Cup championship.

* Tony Stewart vows to win his third Sprint Cup championship in 2014, and fans and other drivers notice his new attitude. Former teammate Ryan Newman quips in an interview at Daytona that Stewart seems to be "walking with a purpose, as well as a limp."

Stewart wins at Watkins Glen and qualifies for the Chase, but finishes a disappointing seventh in the final standings.

* Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s No. 88 car gets a new sponsor just in time for the Daytona 500 when an online funeral planning service signs on for 12 races. The service, known as "Final-E," sees a boom in business after their logo appears on Earnhardt's Chevy.

Earnhardt finishes second in the Daytona 500, and wins at Daytona in July on his way to a fourth place finish in the Sprint Cup points standings.

* Kevin Harvick coins the name "Two Men and a Babe, and Kurt Busch" to describe the Stewart-Haas Racing stable of Stewart, Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Danica Patrick after a heated drivers' meeting following wreck at Fontana initiated by aggressive driving from Busch.

Harvick, aided by new buddy Stewart, exacts his revenge the following week at Martinsville, where the two craft an elaborate hoax in which a phony façade of Busch's hauler placed in front of a Port-a-Potty lures Busch into a trap. Once inside, Busch is fork-lifted to an outer parking lot, and is forced to walk back and misses qualifying.

* E! Network and ABC collaborate on a new reality show called "Keeping Up With the Chase Format: Extreme Makeover: NASCAR Edition." In the show, host Brad Daugherty roams around NASCAR events asking fans if they understand not only the Chase For the Cup format, but Daugherty's hayseed, mountain drawl.

* Richard Childress Racing rookie Austin Dillon bulls his way to the win in a wreck-filled race at Bristol on March 16, as only 22 cars are running at the end. In Victory Lane, Dillon salutes his detractors with a middle finger, then pops the top on a beer before shouting, "Austin 3:16 says I just whipped your ass!"

The outburst makes Dillon a sensation, but also saddles the driver of the Childress No. 3 Chevy with the nickname "The Imitator."

* In an interview promoting a partnership between the No. 48 team and Caesar's Palace before the March race in Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson coins his quest for his seventh Sprint Cup championship "VIIni, VIIdi, VIIci."

Later, after International Speedway Corporation CEO Jim France makes Smith an insulting offer for Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Smith slaps France, leading a fallen France to quip, "Et tu, Bruton?"

Johnson leads the points standings for most of the year, and heads to Homestead with a chance to win No. 7, but engine trouble ends his day. He finishes third in the points standings.

* Danica Patrick and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. elope in Barbados on April 19th at a ceremony presided over by Russell Brand and streamed live on GoDaddy.com. Patrick wears a Vera Wang gown crafted from fire-suit material and accented with a HANS device and also featuring a plunging neckline that leaves little to the imagination.

Patrick's good fortune continues when she wins at Talladega on May 3rd, darting from 23rd to first on the final lap as a wild pileup eliminates half the field. A wild celebration ensues in Victory Lane, where Patrick delivers a message to her competitors, "There's a party at my house. I hate to be 'Petty,' but no one's invited, so you can all go home."

* In a new advertisement for ESPN's SportsCenter, Clint Bowyer leads a spin class in the ESPN company workout facility, while Michael Waltrip is seen guiding a tour group from Finland around ESPN's headquarters. The commercial ends when Bowyer and Waltrip dupe the tour group into paying a second admission fee before they're busted by Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman, who accuse the MWR duo of "manipulating the Finnish."

* Carl Edwards is scheduled to make an appearance in the March 2nd episode of AMC's The Walking Dead, in which he portrays the leader of a brainless following of half-dead dimwits, a group eerily similar to the Carl Edwards Fan Club.

To publicize the event, the No. 99 sports a Subway/The Walking Dead paint scheme bearing the slogan, "Subway: Eat Flesh" at Phoenix. Edwards leads 88 laps and wins in a race that features only three lead changes. In Victory Lane, Edwards performs his trademark back flip while disappointed fans file out like zombies.

* Matt Kenseth wins the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on April 6th, and is presented the winner's trophy by "Duck Dynasty" patriarch Phil Robertson, who oddly comments that his favorite parts of the 1.5-mile track are the "straights."

* After a crash at Kentucky Speedway on June 28th, Brad Keselowski and Carl Edwards are summoned to the NASCAR hauler for a talk with NASCAR officials. Keselowski creates a firestorm when he tweets a picture from inside the hauler, a photo which shows he and Edwards smoking cigars and playing ping-pong while officials in the background relax in a hot tub.

Keselowski is placed on probation for two weeks, while NASCAR bans cell phones and all liquids in excess of 3.4 ounces. 5-Hour Energy shots takes advantage of the opportunity, and becomes the official drink of drivers called to the NASCAR hauler.

* June's road race at Sonoma is delayed for three hours after a mild earthquake strikes the region, causing slight damage to the circuit's surface. Swan Racing part-owner 50 Cent is seen inspecting a fissure in the track along pit road, leading to TNT's Kyle Petty to make the controversial statement, "Well, he was a crack dealer."

50 laughs off the comment, and later in the year makes a big splash when, as honorary starter at Dover in June, eschews waving the green flag and instead fires a starters pistol nine times. In doing so, 50 becomes the first rapper to be "shot nine times" twice.

* Gene Haas abandons his plan to enter Formula 1 and instead opts to field a funny car in the NHRA. Haas car flops, failing to qualify for a single final, and becomes the laughingstock in the drag racing garage, leading to the nickname "Funny Haas Haas."

* A healthy Denny Hamlin wins four races on the season, including March's Martinsville race, where he fights off a challenge from Joey Logano, than challenges Logano to a fight after the race. Hamlin and Logano settle their differences in a charity one-on-one basketball game, which ends in a tie, 1-1.

Hamlin qualifies for the "Elimination Round" of NASCAR's revamped Chase For the Cup format, and wins at Phoenix on November 9th, but tweaks his back shaking an oversized champagne bottle and struggles the following week at Homestead.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:42 AM | Comments (1)

February 12, 2014

Gay Athletes: One Day, It Won't Be a Big Deal

So the biggest story in college football this week involves a former player announcing that he is gay. In case you missed it, recently graduated Missouri defensive end Michael Sam "came out" on Sunday in a TV interview, adding that his coaches and teammates have been very supportive and acceptant of his lifestyle.

This also isn't the first announcement from a college player that he has "alternative sexual preferences" (my quote). Locally, a former high school football star who is now a kicker at Willamette University in Oregon, Conner Mertens, announced that he is bi-sexual.

While I don't necessarily agree with their lifestyles, I do commend these players for their courage to come out and announce to the world something that is viewed upon by many as wrong or unnatural. That being said, though, I don't quite understand the need to make such announcements in the first place.

I don't mean any disrespect toward people who feel the need to tell the world that they prefer the same sex (or both sexes), but is this urge to "come out" simply a result of the current push to make homosexuality acceptable and equal to heterosexuality in society, or is it an effort to bring attention to themselves or their personal lives? Let me explain my lack of understanding.

In the simplest sense, sexual preference is a personal matter. While there is debate as to whether sexual preference is innate or a subconscious choice, there are other aspects of people's personal lives that don't get announced in a press conference or TV interview. For example, I don't recall any athlete or entertainer calling a media event to announce that they are an atheist or a vegetarian or that they are a Democrat. Those are personal matters and, aside from that, why would anybody want to know?

At one point in my life, I was a fairly prominent radio personality in the small town where I lived. One could say that I was a celebrity of sorts. But I never once had the notion of announcing on the air that I'm a Christian, or that I think PETA stands for "People Eating Tasty Animals" or that I'm a registered Republican. Why would anyone care to know about my personal life? All they should really care about is whether I'm can speak well, deliver the news with authority or accurately describe the action of the local high school team's games.

Now back to the matter of Michael Sam and Conner Mertens. Personally, it doesn't matter to me if they're gay or bi or celibate. That's their business and theirs alone. What matters to me as a football fan – and I'm sure their coaches and teammates feel the same way — is if they can play or not. The same holds true in the entertainment industry (of which sports is arguably a part). Neil Patrick Harris is a terrific actor who also happens to be gay. What's the big deal with that?

Here's the point I'm trying to make. We've made great strides in recent years to accept alternative lifestyles in American society and have applauded those who have the courage to let others know about it. But my hope is that we'll get to a point where it doesn't matter what is an athlete's sexual preference, and the main focus is on their abilities. I look forward to the day when a gay or bisexual athlete doesn't feel compelled to announce their personal life to the world — no more than one would feel the need to announce their religious, dietary or political choices — and their talents and abilities all we need to know about.

Posted by Adam Russell at 12:42 PM | Comments (0)

February 11, 2014

The Best QB to Lose Two Super Bowls

The 2009 Indianapolis Colts lost Super Bowl XLIV. The 2013 Denver Broncos lost Super Bowl XLVIII. That makes Peyton Manning one of only eight quarterbacks to start for two Super Bowl losers. It's an elite eight, to be sure, with Hall of Fame talent. How do these multiple Super Bowl-losing QBs stack up with one another? Let's rank them.

8. Craig Morton

Lost Super Bowls V and XII

Craig Morton was not a bad quarterback. He played for 18 seasons and led two different teams to the Super Bowl. He passed for 27,908 yards, right between contemporaries Ken Stabler (27,938) and Joe Namath (27,663). But you could not ask for an uglier Super Bowl QB.

For years, Super Bowl V was acknowledged as the worst of all time. The Colts and Cowboys combined for 10 turnovers, and the MVP went to a linebacker on the losing team. Morton finished the game with three interceptions and a 34.1 passer rating. He returned to the big game six years later, with the Broncos. Facing his old team, Morton went 4-of-15 for 39 yards and 4 interceptions. He is the only quarterback in Super Bowl history with a 0.0 passer rating. If the rating system allowed negative scores, Morton would have rated -76.0. No joke. He was benched for Norris Weese, and the Broncos lost 27-10.

Morton was a good QB, but he's the worst player on this list, and it's not close.

7. Kurt Warner

Lost Super Bowls XXXVI and XLIII

See how quickly we reach a Hall of Fame standard? I would be willing to argue that the list of QBs who have lost multiple Super Bowls is stronger than the list of those who have won multiple Super Bowls. Like Manning and Morton, Warner lost Super Bowls with two different teams.

Kurt Warner will probably be elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and that's fine with me, but he had a short career at a position where the best players often stick around for 15 seasons or more. Warner only played four seasons as a regular starter: 1999, 2001, 2008, and 2009 were the only years he started 12 or more games. It always surprises me how many fans and analysts forget the shape of Warner's career. Following the loss in Super Bowl XXXVI, he got benched three times, by three different teams: in 2003, by the Rams (for Marc Bulger); in 2004, by the Giants (for Eli Manning); and in 2006, by the Cardinals (for Matt Leinart). He arguably got benched by the Cards in '05, too, for Josh McCown. If you want to be charitable, you could argue that Warner wasn't totally healthy in '05. Either way, it's a pretty rough stretch. He got benched or seriously injured for five seasons in a row.

I lived in St. Louis in 2003. Warner fumbled six times in a season-opening loss to the Giants, who went 3-12 the rest of the year. The Rams replaced Warner with Bulger and rebounded to win 12 games. At the end of the season, my friend Nick and I made a list of all the QBs we thought were better than Warner. It had 61 names, including a number of college QBs — we wrote "Tulane guy" because neither of us could remember J.P. Losman's name — and a couple players who were retired. We were exaggerating, but for three or four years, the list looked more or less on-target: Warner was finished as a starting quarterback.

Warner re-emerged as a top QB in 2008, playing with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. In a January 2010 Wild Card playoff, Warner threw more TDs than incompletions. He went 9-4 as a starting QB in the postseason, with a stat line of 307-for-462, 3,952 yards, 31 TD, 14 INT, and a 102.8 passer rating. In his three Super Bowl appearances, Warner averaged 385 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, and a 96.7 rating. He was an accurate passer, on-target with deep throws and setting up yards after the catch on underneath routes. His weakness was too many negative plays: lots of sacks, lots of interceptions.

6. Jim Kelly

Lost Super Bowls XXV, XXVI, XXVII and XXVIII

Kelly lost the most NFL Championships of any starting quarterback in history, four in a row over the 1990-93 seasons. Like Warner, he benefitted from exceptional teammates. Warner quarterbacked the Greatest Show on Turf, with two HOF-caliber receivers (Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt), a legendary running back (Marshall Faulk), and a very good offensive line including potential Hall of Famer Orlando Pace. In Arizona, he had two more HOF-caliber receivers (Fitzgerald and Boldin). The Super Bowl-era Bills have produced six HOFers: Kelly, head coach Marv Levy, RB Thurman Thomas, both starting WRs (Andre Reed and James Lofton), and defensive end Bruce Smith. Buffalo also had a strong offensive line, especially center Kent Hull.

Kelly, who started his pro career in the USFL, played only 11 seasons in the NFL, and it's fair to wonder how much success he would have had in the much stronger NFC. Of course, we might also consider the weather in Buffalo. When Kelly, a Miami Hurricane, chose the Houston Gamblers over the Bills in 1983, he said, "You can't be a great quarterback in snow and 30-mile-per-hour wind." That turned out not to be true, but it took Jim Kelly to prove it.

These are all great quarterbacks, so in this part of the list I'm trying to explain why the player doesn't rate higher, and that means pointing out his weaknesses. For Kelly it was his interception rate, 3.7%. That's far worse than contemporary HOF QBs like Joe Montana (2.6%), Steve Young (2.6%), Troy Aikman (3.0%), Dan Marino (3.0%), John Elway (3.1%), Brett Favre (3.3%), and Warren Moon (3.4%). Kelly threw 7 interceptions in Super Bowls. The only player with more was...

5. John Elway

Lost Super Bowls XXI, XXII, and XXIV

John Elway and Dan Marino were my favorite QBs in the '80s and '90s. Having rooted for Elway, I remember his many shortfalls in the postseason. But Elway, who retired immediately after back-to-back Super Bowl victories, the latter of which earned him a Super Bowl MVP Award, has become sort of a legend, celebrated for his acknowledged greatness rather than the things that made him great.

There are several striking parallels between John Elway and Peyton Manning. Both were college stars and both were drafted first overall by the Colts. Both opened their careers with a 2-3 postseason record. Both were named NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP. And of course, they both played on multiple Super Bowl losers. Peyton has been labeled a playoff choker basically for his whole career, and Elway was immune pretty early on because of The Drive, but his postseason record is littered with devastating failures.

The Broncos lost Elway's first playoff game, 31-7. The next season, they again lost their first playoff game. With three minutes left and the score tied, Elway threw an interception that was returned to the 2-yard line and set up a game-winning TD. He was on the wrong side of one of the biggest upsets in playoff history (against the Jaguars in January 1997) and two embarrassing Super Bowl blowouts. Despite all this, Elway is renowned for his clutch play and postseason success.

Elway played for a long time, at a high level. Some of his best statistical seasons came in the last years of his career. That's partly an illusion, because Elway had mediocre offensive teammates in his prime, and exceptional teammates when he neared retirement. He had incredible arm strength, but I suspect what most drew fans to Elway was his visible passion for football. The Drive seemed hopeless, but Elway made it happen. Perhaps the most memorable single play of his career was The Helicopter in Super Bowl XXXII, a vivid demonstration of Not Giving Up.

It's hard to blame Elway for the Super Bowl losses. The Broncos weren't going to win any of those games, no matter who the quarterback was. But even in the regular season, Elway had holes in his game. His stats are good, but more about volume than efficiency. His career passer rating was only 79.9, the lowest of any Hall of Fame quarterback to debut after the 16-game schedule, and he took the most official sacks in NFL history (516), a record that may never fall.

4. Roger Staubach

Lost Super Bowls X and XIII

Like Elway, a multiple Super Bowl loser famous for his clutch play: Captain Comeback, they called him. A Heisman Trophy winner at Navy, Staubach didn't play in the NFL until he was 27, due to his service, and didn't start until he was 29. He threw only 4 interceptions that season, posted a 104.8 passer rating, and led the Cowboys to victory in Super Bowl VI, of which he was named MVP.

Staubach played only eight full seasons. In four of them, he led the NFL in passer rating, and in four of them, Dallas reached the Super Bowl. He did not have a long career, and his stats don't look impressive today. But he was the most efficient passer of his era, and the most prolific when active. On a per-season basis, he's probably one of the five best quarterbacks in history. You wouldn't rank him quite that high because his career was so short, but Staubach has an awfully good excuse for the short career, and the years he missed would have been his athletic prime. He didn't retire until he was almost 37, and he was still one of the best QBs in the league.

3. Tom Brady

Lost Super Bowls XLII and XLVI

Like Elway, like Staubach, a multiple Super Bowl loser famous for his clutch play. Tom Brady's career has something to please everyone. He has career milestones like 350 TDs and nearly 50,000 yards. He has three Super Bowl rings and two MVPs. He's been regular season MVP twice, he's thrown for 5,000 yards in a season, 50 TDs in a season, three years with a passer rating over 100. No matter what measure you prefer, Tom Brady is one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play.

Brady spent a few years throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and Rob Gronkowski could become the greatest tight end of all time if he stays healthy. But for much of his career, Brady has played with no-name receivers. Sometimes he's had a running game, and sometimes not. For most of the last decade, there have been questions about New England's defense. No matter who else is on the team, Bill Belichick and Brady find ways to succeed. Such dramatic shifts in approach are not unprecedented, but they're very rare. Brady surely ranks among the most adaptable QBs in history.

I don't really have anything negative to say about Tom Brady, but I suppose I need to explain why he's "only" ranked third. He's still one of the best QBs in the NFL, and he could easily move up this list by the time his career is over, so that's some of it, longevity. The second thing is harder to define ... Brady has no real weaknesses, other than he's not fast, but he also doesn't have as many outstanding positives as the players ahead of him. He really suffers by comparison to Peyton Manning. Brady is a master of reading defenses and controlling the game at the line ... but not at the same level as Peyton. He runs a great two-minute drill, but not nearly as good as Peyton's. He's good at avoiding sacks, good at play-action, throws a nice deep ball ... but not as well. He's thrown fewer completions, with a lower completion percentage. Many fewer yards, and fewer yards per attempt. Fewer touchdowns, and a lower TD%. More sacks for more yards, and many more fumbles. He does have a lot fewer interceptions and a better INT%. He's less wild than Manning, and he doesn't seem to get rattled or frustrated as easily.

Maybe that's facilitated postseason success, but since that last Super Bowl win nine years ago, Brady's postseason record (9-8) is basically the same as Manning's (8-7). If Brady had a special clutch ability that Peyton lacks, it vanished with New England's once-dominant defense.

2. Fran Tarkenton

Lost Super Bowls VIII, IX, and XI

Fran Tarkenton played 18 seasons, and in nearly all of them, he was among the most productive quarterbacks in pro football. He played with the Vikings when they were an expansion team, and he put up John Unitas numbers. He played with the Giants when they were awful, and had some of his best years. He returned to the Vikings when they were an NFC dynasty, earning three trips to the Super Bowl and the 1975 NFL MVP Award.

Our enduring image of Tarkenton is a scrambler, and he was a sensational scrambler. But he was also the most prolific passer of his era, the man who broke all of Unitas' records. Today, with 16-game schedules, the liberal blocking rules for offensive linemen, the ban on the head slap, the Mel Blount rule, illegal contact, and innumerable policies to protect quarterbacks and receivers, Tarkenton still ranks 8th all-time in passing yards and 6th in passing TDs. Statistically and stylistically, you might compare Tarkenton to Elway, except that Tarkenton was much more efficient. His career passer rating is actually higher than Elway's, even though he played in the '60s and '70s. For consistent excellence over a long career, the only real comparisons are Johnny Unitas, Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, and maybe Y.A. Tittle.

1. Peyton Manning

Lost Super Bowls XLIV and XLVIII

Peyton Manning has all the stats. Even many critics now acknowledge that he is the greatest regular-season quarterback in history. What's most striking about Manning is his artistry. Several times each season, he plays at a level that is almost incomprehensible. In Week 3, on Monday Night Football, Manning went 32-of-37 for 374 yards, 3 TDs, and a 135.8 passer rating. Jon Gruden called him the Sheriff, because he lays down the law. Mike Tirico called him the Surgeon, because he's so precise and he puts on a clinic. After the game, Steve Young and Trent Dilfer described Peyton, not as anything as crude as a sheriff, or as cold and dispassionate as a surgeon. He was a visionary, whose genius no one can fully understand or replicate. On his good days, Peyton Manning is the most amazing football player you could ever hope to see. On those days, his play is inspiring, everything I love about sports.

Sport isn't about numbers, and it isn't about trophies or rings. It's about overcoming the odds, finding reserves when they should have been exhausted long ago, throwing the perfect back-shoulder pass, calling exactly the right play on 3rd-and-8, accomplishing the improbable, even the impossible. Sports are about nothing less than the triumph of the human spirit, and a football game played in Week 3 is no exception. The stakes rise in big games, but seeing an athlete accomplish something you never would have dreamed of — that's always special, and no quarterback in history has done that as often as Manning.

Manning knows his offense better than any other player in league history. He runs the best two-minute drill. He has the best play-action. He looks guys off the ball as well as anybody. His timing and accuracy are as good as anyone's. He doesn't take sacks. He had arm strength and a quick release. He displays abilities we haven't seen since Marino in his prime and game control we haven't seen since Unitas. In many ways he combines the best qualities of both players.

Peyton has played poorly in some big games. He's also played sensationally in big games. He recorded a perfect passer rating in a 2003-04 playoff game and followed it up with a clinic against the 13-3 Chiefs. He lit the world on fire in a Wild Card game the next year (458 yds, 145.7 rating). He led the biggest comeback in Conference Championship Game history (18 points against the Patriots) and won a Super Bowl MVP Award against one of the best defenses in recent memory (the 2006 Chicago Bears). He dominated the exceptional 2009 Jets defense (377 yds, 3 TD, 123.6 rating). All QBs struggle sometimes, but for some reason it seems to stick to Manning in a way it doesn't for other players. Chase Stuart at Football Perspective compiled some events Peyton Manning's critics prefer to ignore:

"When Tom Brady leads the greatest scoring offense in NFL history to 14 points against a defense that allowed 22 points per game during the regular season, it does not become part of his narrative. When Joe Montana leads the 49ers to just three points in back-to-back playoff losses to the Giants, those games are pushed to the footnotes section of his biography. When the favored Colts were shut out by the Browns in the 1964 NFL title game, that goose egg did not become indelibly intertwined with the legacy of Johnny Unitas. Our memory of Otto Graham's 1953 season is that it was one of the greatest quarterback seasons in football history, even if he went 2/15 for 20 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a losing effort in the NFL title game. We remember Sammy Baugh as one of the greatest players ever, forgetting that he was the face of an embarrassing 73-0 loss to the Bears in the 1940 championship game. For most quarterbacks, ugly playoff performances are quirks of history; for Manning, they become bullet points in a character assassination."

If you're going to dismiss the most influential quarterback of the Modern Era, a player who has won five MVPs, set important single-season and career records, turns every receiver he plays with into a superstar, takes the fewest sacks in history, runs the best two-minute drill, and gets his team to the playoffs every year, if you're going to throw all that out the window because of a handful of playoff games, you really ought to re-think the way you analyze the game.

Eight quarterbacks have started at least two Super Bowl losses. They were all good players, and most of them were great. About half are inner-circle Hall of Famers, guys in the discussion for best ever. From where I'm sitting, none have been better than Peyton Manning.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:55 PM | Comments (1)

The Writing on the Wall Barks at A-Rod

Accepting the inevitable comes hard enough for most mortals, never mind professional athletes. When the inevitable is retirement, it isn't everyone who faces it with quiet grace and gratitude for having been there at all, and it often forces a player to buck up to it. When the inevitable is banishment for cause, it isn't everyone who can resist facing it kicking and screaming, but few kicked and screamed as loudly or as wildly as Alex Rodriguez did until Friday.

Rodriguez has always been an introspective man, often in public and often to the point where it becomes a vice. But whether it was introspection that brought him to drop his lawsuits against both baseball government and his own union, or whether it was feeling the heat after he filed the suits following an arbitrator's holding him to a suspension for 2014 alone, somehow Rodriguez saw the proverbial writing on the wall. And it barked at him.

It couldn't possibly have escaped the notice of one and all, perhaps including A-Rod himself, that from the moment Frederic Horowitz determined he'd been just what baseball government charged his look made the deer in the headlights look locked and loaded for a counterattack by comparison. He filed his (some said insane) lawsuits against MLB and the Players Association from just that vantage point, and all it brought him was an apparent shrug of regret from the union that only its in-place rules prevented it from kicking him out as a swelling number of players seemed to hope.

It also brought him a federal judge ruling that Horowitz's decision could and would be made public. The ruling included a sketch-by-sketch description of the regimen of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances Rodriguez used under Anthony Bosch's aegis, from human growth hormone (hGH) to testosterone creams and around again to growth hormone-releasing peptides (GHRP); presumably, these are the "three [banned] discrete PES" to which Horowitz refers in his closing opinion.

Only one of the substances listed in the report (1-testosterone) is actually a steroid, and it was in fact legal in the United States until 2005 when it was re-listed as a Schedule III drug, to be dispensed by no one other than a physician or licensed pharmacist acting on a physician's prescription. A-Rod apparently began the hGH and testosterone six days a week in November 2010 and continued through specific periods in 2011 and 2012.

Whatever he was or wasn't using through those periods it became only too clear that Rodriguez did just about everything in his power short of a hiring a fleet of attack helicopters to stonewall baseball's attempt to investigate to just what extent he was or wasn't involved with actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances above and beyond the period to which he'd formerly confessed, his years playing for the Texas Rangers. It becomes more clear that baseball government, for all the apparent flaws and fooleries indulged during its probe, had him all but dead to right on the matter.

And it becomes finally far more clear than those that Rodriguez — not baseball government, not Anthony Bosch, not Frederic Horowitz, not the Players' Association, not 60 Minutes, and not the New York Yankees (whom Rodriguez has accused of monkey business of its own here and there) — wrote the script that finally makes him persona non grata even in spring training for this season.

He made baseball itself look like fools after the game struggled for a decade to cauterize and clean up the infection of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances. But most of all he exposed himself as a fool who'd come to the game with transdimensional talent yet doubtful enough in it to seek its insurance by any means necessary, for reasons upon which both those who have supported him and those who have been appalled by him can only speculate beyond a particular point.

Rodriguez has never been the most completely secure of young men. For all his ability, for all his game knowledge, for all his achievements prior to the contract that may yet prove to have been the cobra's own mongoose, for all his early likability and easy manner among his peers and his admirers, there has bristled inside him a small boy unwilling to believe in the blessing of his own talent, his own ability to exercise it, the fact that (once upon a time) people genuinely liked him for himself. A small boy unwilling at core to believe he'd earned the game's most swollen vault of riches and could live up to every dollar, ingot, and shekl therein simply going forth and playing the game the way he'd proven repeatedly he could and did play it.

A boy like that raging quietly inside a man suddenly discomfited by his own being and doing is a prescription for disaster, which is just what Rodriguez's career and image have become. He will go away somewhat quietly this season, perhaps clinging still to a hope for a 2015 return that his age and his unchemicalized body might yet thwart, but his auxiliary damage will yet remain.

In practical terms, the Yankees (who may yet seek to eat the remaining dollars just to be rid of him once and for all) have a third base problem to solve. In metaphysical terms, the Yankees have to live with having made one too many deals with one particular devil. Nothing in their history — not Lou Gehrig's tragedy, not the 1958 Copacabana brawl, not the dubiously planned and executed sale to CBS in 1964, not the lost decade of 1965-75, not the George Steinbrenner follies, not even Ball Four's revelations or Mickey Mantle's late-life confessionals — prepared them institutionally to face this.

The truest cliche about the Yankees is that they don't like to lose. Now they, the entire leagues, the players association, and the game itself begin coming to terms with a spiritual amputation worse than any loss any of them ever suffered on or off the field otherwise. They're about to discover how the San Francisco Giants must have felt when at last Barry Bonds removed his elephant from their clubhouse, even if Bonds never thought of going even half as scorched earth as Rodriguez tried.

They might take some comfort in a pronouncement from a quarter century ago. When A. Bartlett Giamatti first handed Pete Rose his banishment for gambling in 1989, he concluded with the following: "Let no one think that it did not hurt baseball. That hurt will pass, however, as the great glory of the game asserts itself and a resilient institution goes forward. Let it also be clear that no individual is superior to the game."

Baseball government may have reminded us in the Rodriguez case that no commissioner or player is superior to the game. But there lingers the ugly feeling that, for all his flaws, and they have been legion, Bud Selig — who couldn't possibly equal Giamatti's poetic elegance or eloquence — just might have learned the hard way, over his entire term in office, how right Giamatti was. Even if Alex Rodriguez just might not have done quite yet.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:46 AM | Comments (0)

February 10, 2014

How Kiner Out-Slugged the Mahatma

Ralph Kiner's death at 91 on February 6, a day before pitchers and catchers were due in to start spring training, provokes a pool full of thoughts, considering my experience with him has been as a New York Mets fan since the day they were born. Kiner was one of the original Mets broadcast trio (Lindsey Nelson and Bob Murphy, both of whom preceded him in death, were the others) but the longest-serving, even if Bell's palsy finally wore him down to periodic appearances the Mets never begrudged him.

He was a charmingly incisive analyst and a solid, meat-and-potatoes play by play man whose facility with malaprops could be at least as engaging as those of Herb Score and Jerry Coleman; his home run call was one of the most unforgettable in baseball broadcasting, in New York and elsewhere: Deep to [wherever], going, going, it is gonnnnnnnnnnnnnne, goodbye! — a refinement of his original going, gone, forget it, goodbye!

But sometimes over all those wonderful seasons when he seemed New York's congenial grandfather at the ballpark, Kiner's Hall of Fame playing career may have been forgotten other than his deft storytelling of players past with or against whom he played, or whom he'd seen growing up in New Mexico and California. He was a slugging left fielder for one after another mediocre Pittsburgh Pirates team on which he was just about the lone reason fans had to go to old Forbes Field. And he had the misfortune of having as a boss of bosses Branch (The Mahatma) Rickey, after Rickey was forced out of Brooklyn somewhat bizarrely, took on the job of trying to rebuild the Pirates, and let his notoriously penurious ways with players extend to lengths with Kiner that today's generation would consider unconscionable, if not downright criminal.

Kiner led the National League in home runs in his first seven consecutive seasons; only Mike Schmidt since has led the league more, consecutively or otherwise. A seven-time all-star, Kiner averaged 41 home runs and 112 runs batted in per 162 games lifetime; for most players that would be a career season. Only his bothersome back limited his playing career to 10 seasons and kept his wins above replacement level below the Hall of Fame average for left fielders. Yet Rickey undertook one after another bid to tear down his number one gate attraction even while he was, yes, planting the seeds for a revival that would end up with the Pirates' unlikely World Series championship in 1960.

The best-remembered of Rickey's insults is surely the occasion on which he informed Kiner during one salary haggle, "We finished in last place with you, and we can finish in last place without you." Exactly how one of the most brilliant and farsighted minds baseball has ever known could have been so shortsighted as to assume one player could make an entire team into a winner is almost as lost as is just how Rickey came up with an even worse insult that isn't as well remembered, a piece of verse that belongs in the Hall of Fame under the category of "the most insipid blasts of balderdash baseball has ever borne":

Babe Ruth could run. Our man cannot.
Ruth could throw. Our man cannot.
Ruth could steal a base. Our man cannot.
Ruth was a good fielder. Our man is not.
Ruth could hit with power to all fields. Our man cannot.
Ruth never requested a diminutive field to fit him. Our man does.

Had someone spiked one of Rickey's famous cigars with an explosive round?

Ralph Kiner was actually a slightly better baserunner than Babe Ruth. He never got the chance to show it, of course, but it's extremely doubtful that Kiner would have run his team into a World Series loss with one power hitter at the plate and a second on deck with two outs in the ninth inning. Ruth did that to end the 1926 World Series in the St. Louis Cardinals' favor. Kiner didn't try to steal bases too often, but in the five years for which the record is known he tried 11 times and stole 9 bases. Ruth's stolen base percentage isn't anywhere close.

Kiner's throwing arm was rather average for a corner outfielder; Roberto Clemente he wasn't. Neither was Ruth, who also had about an average throwing arm for a corner outfielder. If you put stock into this statistic, Ruth's range factor is actually nine points lower than Kiner's, which I submit may suggest Kiner was a slightly better defensive outfielder than Ruth who got to a few more balls a little more often. And as for hitting to all fields, perhaps Allen Barra (in Clearing the Bases) should have the word about that:

"As long as one hits with power what difference does it make what field or fields he hits to? For my own part, I never heard anyone say that Babe Ruth was good at hitting to "all fields"; in fact, I've never heard of a great power hitter who was known to hit to all fields. From period descriptions, Ruth seems to have been the quintessential pull hitter...

"I assume that Rickey meant that Ruth was a much more consistent hitter than Kiner, and that is certainly true. Ruth's lifetime average was .342 to Kiner's .279, which was a bit low even for a slugger in the late '40s and early '50s when batting averages had gone down. But the difference between the two is not so great as one might think at first glance. The National League batting average from 1946 to 1955, the 10 short years of Kiner's career, was .2612. The American League's batting average from 1920 to 1929, Babe Ruth's peak years, was .2860.

"Now, unless you want to argue that hitters suddenly got worse in 20 years — and I'm sure Branch Rickey was in as good a position to know that as anyone else and he never implied any such thing — then we have to assume that pitching or hitting conditions or something else besides talent cause batting averages to drop so severely. Actually, we have a pretty good idea of what it was: night ball, because even today we can see a huge gap between batting averages from day and night games. But we'll let that pass for now.

"The point is that it is not unreasonable to assume that Ralph Kiner, had he played in Ruth's time, would have had a career batting average of, say, .305, and since his on-base average was an already sensational .398, we can certainly assume that would have gone higher, too, to about .430. Now, those are pretty sensational statistics, and I really have to wonder if Branch Rickey, observing Kiner hit .305 with all those walks and home runs, would have singled him out for criticism.

"Or, stated another way, if Ruth had played in Kiner's time and beyond and had lost about 25 points off his average and wound up at maybe .317, with a commensurate drop in other stats, would he then remain the yardstick against which all hitters are measured? Uh-oh, better stop, we're getting into the area of heresy."

One might care to note in hand Ruth's staggering enough triples totals, then line them up to the home parks in which he played his prime as a position player. Both of them had cavernous center fields and left center fields. Which suggests that if Ruth was hitting to "all fields," he was picking up an awful lot of triples because, even if he wasn't a swift runner, those balls were traveling far enough to the rear end of the field that even a man on prosthetic limbs could have made triples out of them. (As an aside, Kiner once admitted he was a dead enough pull hitter that he didn't take as much advantage as he might have of Forbes Field's deep enough right center field to pick up a few extra extra-base hits. That merely makes him like, say, Joe DiMaggio, who believed pull hitting was the only legitimate hitting — but hurt himself hitting right-handed into that cavernous Yankee Stadium left side.)

What about Rickey's charge that Kiner "asked for" a diminutive field in which to hit? Kiner didn't "ask" for such a field any more than Ruth "asked" the Yankees to build the original Yankee Stadium with a short right field porch. Never mind that the Yankees did, deliberately, build it for him, and why on earth not? You have the most powerful left-handed bat in baseball, do you want to build him a right field he couldn't reach by taxicab? Ruth had already played his first three seasons of Yankee home games in another park with a notorious short right field porch (and a notoriously out-of-the-area-code center field): the Polo Grounds. Why would the Yankees want to impose a handicap on their number one bombardier and run producer?

But it is absolutely untrue that the Pirates brought in the left field fences to accommodate Ralph Kiner at Kiner's request — they did it for Hank Greenberg, whom they bought from the Detroit Tigers in spring 1947. Why on earth were the Tigers willing to sell the defending American League home run champion? (Greenberg led the league in homers and RBIs in 1946, his first full season following his World War II service.)

Greenberg and the Tigers were in a salary dispute in which the Tigers tried to persuade Greenberg to take a pay cut. The Tigers sold his contract to the pre-Rickey Pirates, who were willing to make Greenberg baseball's first postwar $80,000 a year man. To sweeten Greenberg's pot, the Pirates pulled in the Forbes Field left field fences enough to accommodate the pull-hitting Greenberg. Greenberg hit 25 homers and drove in 74 runs in 1947 while leading the National League with 104 walks, and though the end was clearly in sight Greenberg proved popular enough that the new short left field porch was nicknamed Greenberg Gardens.

Also in 1947, Greenberg took Kiner under his wing; the veteran saw the kid had a natural power swing but needed some focus. "All he needed was somebody to teach him the value of hard work and self-discipline," Greenberg would remember. "Early in the morning on off-days, every chance we got, we worked on hitting." Kiner doubled his home run output as Greenberg's teammate and student and, incidentally, hit only five more home runs at home than on the road even with the new shorter-porch Greenberg Gardens as his home target. Only after Greenberg retired following 1947 did the porch get a nickname change to Kiner's Korner.

Which reminds me that Kiner hit 43 percent of his lifetime home runs on the road. We can put that into perspective even without discussing Babe Ruth; or, any other players who hit more homers on the road than at home, such players as Joe DiMaggio, Mike Schmidt, and Eddie Murray. It's reasonable to presume that most players in general, and certainly most Hall of Famers, have hit more at home than on the road; assuming the dimensions of their home parks are reasonable enough, you would more or less expect even great hitters to do better before the home audience. Here is a random sample of Hall of Famers and how they hit home runs on the road; I'll explain the asterisks soon enough:

Ernie Banks: 43 percent.
Jimmie Foxx: 44 percent.
Lou Gehrig: 49 percent.
Ken Griffey, Jr.: 47 percent.
*Rogers Hornsby: 45 percent.
Willie Mays: 49 percent.
Willie McCovey: 49 percent.
*Johnny Mize: 41 percent.
*Stan Musial: 47 percent.
*Mel Ott: 36 percent.
Jim Rice: 45 percent.
Frank Robinson: 45 percent.
Ryne Sandberg: 41 percent.
Frank Thomas: 40 percent.

That would suggest you can expect an average or near-average Hall of Famer to have hit between 40 and 49 percent of his home runs on the road, on the surface. If you tally those percentages, remove one player (I'll mention him shortly), and divide properly, the average among them is 45 percent of their home runs hit on the road. Ralph Kiner is well within that average either way, and he's even with or ahead of four players minus the man I removed for the moment.

Now let's mention Mel Ott. Master Melvin hit 36 percent of his home runs on the road, and you can understand why in the proverbial New York minute — he played his entire career with the New York Giants, the Polo Grounds was their home park, and there's that yummalicious right field porch again. It was actually shorter than the one the Yankees built for Babe Ruth and shorter than the Forbes Field left field porch was made for Hank Greenberg. I think I'm hearing some crickets from Branch Rickey's cloud right about now.

Rickey was running the Brooklyn Dodgers for a sizeable portion of Mel Ott's career and he had to have known Ott took complete advantage of the Polo Grounds porch. Before he took on the Dodgers, Rickey was the mastermind of the Cardinals and handled, among other players, Stan Musial and Johnny Mize. Before becoming the prototype general manager with the Cardinals, Rickey managed the team — including Rogers Hornsby. Musial and Hornsby didn't hit that much more on the road than Kiner, and Mize hit less of his homers on the road than Kiner did, percentage-wise.

Come to think of it, Johnny Mize with a slightly longer career (elongated late when the Yankees brought him aboard for a five-year tour as a part-timer) was just about the same kind of player as Ralph Kiner: a big slugger who was about fair to middling in the field and also had shortish porches to which to pull his bombs for his entire career. (As a matter of fact, Mize tied Kiner for the National League's home run lead in 1947, when Mize was with the Giants.) Mize came up with the Cardinals while Rickey was still running the organization. Yet Rickey was never known to have tried to run Mize down publicly for any reason. Could Mize's gaudy batting averages between 1936 and 1939 have had something to do with that? As night baseball took further hold circa 1940-41, Mize's averages began dropping for the most part; after his return from World War II, he never again hit .300+ in any season after 1947. You might expect his astute former boss to notice that, too.

You may know the answer as well as I do as to why Rickey chose Kiner as a particular running-down target after Rickey joined the Pirates after 1950. Kiner was no more shy about fighting for his salaries than Rickey was in fighting to keep them down. The Mahatma was notoriously penurious with his players and not above hook, crook, insult, or subterfuge to keep their paychecks low. And Kiner, a player who usually went to bat for whatever players' rights could be had in that pre-free agency era, would say in due course that Rickey did "more than any other person to bring about the players' union." Rickey unhorsed the Babe Ruth verse at Kiner's expense in 1952, while trying (and failing) to convince Pirates owner John Galbreath to sell Kiner and use the proceeds to buy new players.

It never occurred to Rickey that a) you could do an awful lot worse than to hold a player second to Babe Ruth; or, b) that Ruth in actuality wasn't the greatest all-around baseball player who ever lived, that he was a great power and for-average hitter (who would, I repeat, have lost a passel points on his average in the night-ball era) but an average defensive outfielder with an average-to-below-average outfield throwing arm who didn't run smartly — and should have been arrested for incompetence over his insistence on trying to steal bases whenever he bloody well felt like it.

Ralph Kiner was one of the top one hundred hitters of all-time; he retired at number six on the all-time home run list; he looks a little less like the Hall of Famer he is because of his short career but it's reasonable to assume that, had his back not betrayed him, he might have had perhaps five more seasons, a WAR more in line with the average Hall of Fame outfielder, and a more obvious set of credentials — as if leading his league in home runs seven times, in slugging and OPS three times each, and in walks three times needed any further embellishment.

Branch Rickey finally did get so fed up with the salary haggling that he unloaded Kiner — during the 1953 season, a year after the Ruth verse, in a 10-player swap with the Cubs. In perhaps an irony less dubious than delicious, if only from Kiner's point of view, Rickey himself retired in 1955 — for health issues. But when the Mahatma first tried urging John Galbreath to unload Kiner while the unloading was good, when Kiner was still a terrific player and the only box office draw the Pirates had, comparing Kiner fatuously to Ruth, then and there might have been a fine time for Galbreath to consider sending Rickey going, gone, forget it, goodbye.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:08 AM | Comments (0)

February 6, 2014

Sports Q&A: Super Bowl XLVIII Aftermath

What did we learn in Seattle's 43-8 Super Bowl win?

We learned that the 49ers, by far, are the second best team in the NFL.

Did Manny Ramirez' bad snap on the first play from scrimmage forebode a blowout?

It did indeed. When Ramirez' snap went over Peyton Manning's head, it indicated that the Broncos were in over their heads. Ramirez later took full responsibility for the miscue, then prayed he wouldn't become a star in the next McDonald's "NFL Bad Lip Reading" commercial.

What was the turning point of the game?

Seattle's decision to defer to the second half after winning the coin toss. The Seahawks were already a confident bunch, but to choose to put the NFL's highest scoring offense of all time and the most prolific passer of all-time on the field told us that Seattle knew they couldn't lose.

What if Seattle had held the Broncos scoreless in the game?

Then it would have been considered the greatest defensive effort in the history of sports. And the Seahawks' defense would be known as the "Legion of B-0-0-0-0-M," not the "Legion of Boom."

Did the Seahawks study the habits of Jake Plummer prior to the game?

They must have, because they played handball with a Denver quarterback.

How was opera star Renee Fleming's performance of the Star Spangled Banner?

Very classy. She hit all the notes, and has more range than Earl Thomas. Surprisingly, Fleming is not a fat lady, because the game was over right about the time she sang.

What was the broadcoast's best commercial?

I don't like crying during the Super Bowl, so Budweiser's "Puppy" commercial is out. Give me the Doritos "Time Machine" ad. It was smart, funny, and had Broncos' fans wishing time travel was that easy.

What about Tim Tebow for T-Mobile?

I get it. Te-bow. T-Mobile. Clever.

Having Tebow tout T-Mobile's 4G network meant he was able to successfully read "coverage." For once, he was a legitimate "signal" caller.

At least one Denver quarterback found success on Sunday.

Does Bob Dylan make you want to buy a Chrysler?

No, Bob Dylan makes me want to wear a crucifix and garlic around my neck.

Does Lawrence Fishburne make you want to buy a Kia?

No. In my mind, less is Morpheus. But I would surely buy a Kia had Furious Styles from "Boyz in the Hood" told me to do so.

What's orange and falls to the turf after it hits a Seahawk?

Gatorade poured on Pete Carroll.

Did the Broncos forget that Percy Harvin plays for Seattle and runs a 4.4 forty?

They obviously didn't think he was healthy enough to be a factor. Give Seattle offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell credit. He called running plays for Harvin, all misdirection plays, which makes it a lot easier for Harvin to see when he's about to get hit, and avoid it, go down, or run out of bounds, thus avoiding a potential concussion.

Harvin is a lot like a kicker — good for five or six plays a game, but one of those could likely be the decisive one.

Who was the game's biggest x-factor?

That would be linebacker Malcolm Smith. That makes him "Malcolm X.'"

What was the ruckus heard as the third quarter ended?

It was either one of two things: mass chaos at the subway station, or sarcastic cheers from Denver fans.

Was that the greatest Super Bowl coin toss of all-time?

Absolutely. Joe Namath in a fur coat makes anything the greatest of all time. Little known fact: Namath guaranteed a victory in the coin toss. Namath became the first quarterback to throw a pick at the coin toss. And Referee Terry McAulay showed some mad skills snatching that coin out of midair. He looked like Malcolm Smith, except that commemorative coin wasn't wobbling quite as much as Manning's pass.

What does John Fox say?

A. Let's punt. Even though we're down 29-0, I still feel this is a field position game.

B. This red challenge flag is burning a hole in my pocket.

C. Seahawk goes "woof," Bronco goes quietly.

D. All of the above.

Should we feel sympathy for Manning?

Manning is a legend regardless of how many Super Bowls he wins. And that legend will continue to grow, long after he's done playing. When Manning shows up 35 years from now at Super Bowl LXXXIII (83) in a pimp coat, he'll be an even more beloved quarterback.

Does Manning have any regrets about coming to Denver?

None that he will articulate. But plenty about coming to New Jersey.

Is there any reason to believe next year's Super Bowl champion won't come from the NFC West?

Only one: if the four teams in that division beat each other up so badly, then the one left standing will be in no condition to win a Super Bowl.

Why did Fox choose to mic Earl Thomas and not Richard Sherman?

Sherman had been interviewed so much in the last two weeks, he literally had nothing left to say.

Will Manning play next year?

Of course he will. But not without demanding more of himself, as well as Denver front office. During the playoffs, the Broncos transformed themselves from a fast-paced, high-scoring team to a ball-control, defensive-minded team. Maybe that identity will serve them even better next year. The Broncos need to get better on defense, particularly in their backfield, which has been a liability in the playoffs the last two years.

Who will play in the Super Bowl next year?

The Seahawks are certainly capable of repeating, but I see the 49ers, angry and motivated, getting the best of Seattle in the NFC Championship.

Expect another rematch in the AFC Championship, with the home-standing Patriots knocking off the Broncos in another, and likely last, Manning vs. Tom Brady showdown.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:40 PM | Comments (0)

February 5, 2014

Number One Stunner

During a typical professional basketball season, there are usually a couple of "unfamiliar" characteristics. Teams that would normally be powers go through the dreaded rebuilding phase. Squads thought to be also-rans have emerged as contenders, if not for conference titles, then at least for the ones in their own divisions. Some players rise to the level of stardom, while other known commodities see a valley in their production.

We're past the midpoint of the 2013-2014 campaign, and this campaign appears to be no different. But who are the standouts? Which entities have made a name for themselves, for the good and the bad?

A Whole Lot of Positivity

When it came to the Western Conference, the Trailblazers were the talk of the league around Thanksgiving. Highlighted by wins over San Antonio and at Golden State, Portland bolted their way to a 13-2 record in late November, and later, a 24-5 mark on the other side of Christmas Day. We knew last season that their first five was formidable. But now, the Blazers have found a growing bench to support LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, and the other starters.

In an Atlantic Division where the Boston Celtics are nowhere to be found (and weren't expected to be), the stage was set for a Borough Battle. However, heading into February, the New York state of mind was far from ready to hold the torch for the division. Into the void stepped the Toronto Raptors. They've surged into the division lead, and, surprisingly, they've done it by subtraction. Since trading Rudy Gay and other pieces to Sacramento on December 9th, the Raptors are 19-10 and now lead the division by four games. I'm not sure if this can last the rest of the season, but winning basketball might just have returned to Canada.

However, my choice for the surprise team has "scorched" any memory of the stink they were swallowed in ten months ago. On April 17th, 2013, the Phoenix Suns wrapped up the second-worst season in franchise history (only "surpassed" by their inaugural season of 1968-1969). Coach Alvin Gentry had long been fired. Most reminders of their recent glory years were gone (Steve Nash, Amar'e Stoudemire, Grant Hill, etc). In other words, the bright shimmer had set, at least for the time being.

But one understated fact about this organization ... they don't stay down for long. In 45 previous seasons of basketball, there have only been two short stretches where they completed consecutive below-average seasons (three seasons from 1972-1975 and four seasons from 1984-1988). The last time they won less than 30 games in a campaign, they backed it up with 62 wins, a division crown, and a Conference Finals appearance (2004-2005).

So, when former Suns guard Jeff Hornacek became the new head coach, we should have seen this coming. The acquisition of Eric Bledsoe, the return of Leandro Barbosa, and the chemistry of the Morris twins has helped. But the key has been the continued emergence of point guard Goran Dragic (20.0 ppg, 6.1 apg), who might still find his way into the All-Star Game as a replacement. Oh yeah, and the team has already surpassed their win total (29) from all of last season (25).

A Little Bit of Negativity

On the disappointing side, I could have gone with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Living in their backyard, and working in a position where I can have fairly good access to their games, they haven't provided much hope of a playoff push. But I'll defer to fellow Sports Central columnist Ross Lancaster, who provided a darn accurate perspective on the Wolves' season.

For the Brooklyn, things started much more down than up. With injuries to Deron Williams and Brook Lopez (who's out for the rest of the season), the Nets struggled mightily as they went 10-21 in 2013. Since the calendar year has turned, though, this squad has played much better. An 11-4 record in 2014 is an indication that the disappointment might be short-lived.

My focus for the greatest letdown comes from across the East River. The New York Knicks had been building momentum. Even through the mess with former coach Mike D'Antoni, the Knicks had better winning percentages each of the last three seasons. But the defending Atlantic Division champs aren't clicking at all this season. There have been highlights. They had winning streaks of five and four in January. Carmelo Anthony had a 62-point game, the most ever scored by a Knick and at Madison Square Garden. However, an early nine-game losing streak has put them in a bind they haven't been able to escape.

Most Pleasant On-Court Surprises

There are only so many stories and variables that can occur for one of 30 teams, but when it comes to the players of the league, those variables multiply exponentially. It's difficult to pinpoint when an athlete's performance drops off due to age, injury, system, or something else. So, I'm going to refrain from pointing out any player most may be disappointed in this year. I will, though, try to highlight three players on the uptick.

Isaiah Thomas — This isn't a flashback to 1987. The Sacramento Kings point guard is settling in quite well in his third year in the NBA. Despite his team being tied for the worst record in the conference, Thomas is averaging 20.0 points and 6.2 assists per game.

Nikola Pekovic — Kevin Love is the face of the Timberwolves, followed closely behind by Ricky Rubio. But for those post-play purists, Pekovic has quietly become one of the most reliable centers in the league. Consistent improvement has turned him into an 18 (points) & 9 (boards) guy in his fourth NBA season.

Lance Stephenson — This has been a breakout campaign for the Pacers' swingman. He finally earned a starting role on last season's team. The improvement began and has only ballooned in his fourth year. His stats are up significantly in all top statistical categories. His leaps of more than 5 points (8.8 to 14.2), 3 rebounds (3.9 to 7.3), and 2 assists (2.9 to 5.3) per game has made him the most famous of the annual all-star snubs ... and most likely to get to New Orleans as an injury replacement.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 1:38 PM | Comments (0)

February 4, 2014

Children of the Corn

The heartland is tearing up the hoops circuit as of late.

Wichita State hasn't lost since last year's Final Four. Doug McDermott ... I mean, Creighton is steamrolling their way through the Big East. Even Nebraska is catching fire as of late, winning three of their last four in the hotly-contested Big Ten.

And then, there's the newest hotbed of hoops: Iowa.

Barring massive catastrophe, Iowa and Iowa State will make the NCAA tournament. Both teams are solid. Both could be serious dark horses to go deep in March. Both are becoming the talk of the state.

Somewhere, the Iowa Nice Guy is smiling.

Iowa (17-5) is a tough, gritty team. Fran McCaffery's squad is deep, physical and resilient, which makes them a very tough out. The Hawkeye attack is led by Roy Devyn Marble, a 6-6 guard who is a fantastic three-point shooter and leads the team in scoring, averaging just over 16 points a game. Aaron White, a 6-9 forward, has really worked on his shot from last year and it's shown. White is shooting a phenomenal 61 percent from the field this season. The hidden catalyst though might be Mike Gesell. Gesell is the team leader in assists, averaging 3.6 assists a game, but more importantly, has shown immediate maturity in his game from last season.

The Hawkeyes are sitting in third in the Big Ten, yet watching them, it's easy to believe that they still haven't played their best basketball yet, so the opportunity is still there to sneak up and challenge Michigan.

Oh, yeah. About Michigan. The Wolverines have been road warriors all season, yet they, nor Iowa, could walk into Hilton Coliseum in Ames and take down the Cyclones.

Iowa State (16-4) is sitting in the middle of the Big 12, following a midseason slump. That "slump" was a series of games against Top 25 competition and the best of the Big 12. Their chances of creating havoc this March? Unchanged. This team has yet to match its peak.

Fred Hoiberg's squad has lost to Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, so obviously there's no bad losses on the resume. The Cyclones avenged their earlier loss to the Sooners this past weekend and get a chance to do the same against Texas in Ames. The Cyclones have weapons galore. Melvin Ejam is peaking, leading the team in scoring in his senior season and drawing immediate All-Conference attention. Georges Niang continues to be stellar in big games, especially in Saturday's win over the Sooners (that last foul called on him was a real flaky one, as well). The nice addition from last year's squad has been 6-4 guard DeAndre Kane, a transfer who is averaging 16 points a game.

Iowa State's reputation for being nearly impossible to beat at home is well documented. However, Hoiberg has done a good job making his team mentally tougher. The Cyclones have some great road wins against BYU and Boise State and, should they go into Stillwater and beat Oklahoma State on the road, that would certainly attest to a team that's capable of big things in March. Iowa State was mere seconds from sending Ohio State out early last season. There's no reason to believe Iowa State won't be a Sweet 16 team this year, with a great chance of going further.

The heartland is heating up. And while cities like Wichita and Omaha are ablaze with basketball fury, the whole state of Iowa, deservedly so, can start getting primed for March.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:13 PM | Comments (0)

February 3, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Review

Super Bowl XLVIII
February 2, 2014
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8

It was a game only a Seahawk fan could love.

Super Bowl XXXV, Ravens over Giants, was the worst Super Bowl I've ever seen, probably the worst ever. Sunday's game wasn't quite as bad, but it was a massive letdown in a highly-anticipated Super Bowl. Denver's record-setting offense did notch a couple of individual records, but finished in single-digits for the first time all season, with almost as many turnovers as points. The game was never close, and the only drama was whether or not the Broncos might get shut out.

Why the Seahawks Won

"[The Broncos] came out and played their worst game, collectively, across the board, and just never were competitive in this ballgame." That was Troy Aikman's assessment halfway through the fourth quarter. The game spiraled out of Denver's control beginning with the first play, and Seattle controlled throughout. The Seahawks always seemed confident, and at times it looked like the Broncos were trying too hard. The offense wasn't methodical, and the defense wasn't aggressive. They were psyched out in the first half, and unmotivated in the second half. It was brutal to watch.

Of course, the Seahawks deserve a ton of credit. Pete Carroll's coaching staff did a magnificent job, and his players executed throughout. A tricky end-around to Percy Harvin (30 yards) and a few productive scrambles by Russell Wilson put the Broncos on their heels early. Marshawn Lynch ran enough to keep Denver honest, but the Broncos left openings for Wilson, and he took advantage.

More than anything, Seattle won with defense. If you want to boil this game down to a single factor, Seattle won because the Seahawk defensive line badly outplayed the Bronco offensive line.

Noteworthy

The Seahawks did blitz occasionally, but they were able to pressure Peyton Manning without blitzing. That left no time for anything deep to develop, so Seattle's linebackers and defensive backs played everything tight, and blew up Denver's horizontal passing game. The few times the Broncos tried to stretch the field, there were plays to be made, but Manning was off-target, usually long. Denver's normally explosive offense was unable to generate big plays, with a long gain of just 22 yards, near the end of the third quarter when they were already down 36-0.

Terry McAulay's officiating crew handled the game well, though they mis-spotted the ball following a challenge in the first quarter. It wasn't a big deal. The crowd was louder than I can remember for any other Super Bowl. The noise was most noticeable when Denver was on offense, Seattle fans trying to re-create the home atmosphere in New York, but it was loud when Seattle had the ball, too. Maybe it's a New York thing. The first cold-weather Super Bowl turned out not to be terribly cold, but it did scare away some fans and drive down ticket prices. A light rain at halftime had no obvious impact on the game.

What Happened

The Seahawks won the coin toss and deferred to the second half. Normally we wouldn't mention this, but it set in motion a chain of events that doomed the Broncos almost immediately. Trindon Holliday returned the kickoff from six yards deep in the end zone, and returned it to just the 14-yard line, because that is what he does. Before Denver's offense ran a single play, center Manny Ramirez hiked the ball over Peyton Manning's head and into the end zone, where Knowshon Moreno recovered it for a safety. It was the quickest score in Super Bowl history.

If the Seahawks had taken the ball — when they won the coin toss — they probably would have begun around the 20-yard line. Instead, only :12 into the game, Denver kicked away from 15 yards deeper, already in a 2-0 hole, and Seattle took over at its own 36. The Seahawks drove for a field goal, forced a three-and-out, and scored another field goal, going up 8-0.

This was where the Broncos could have turned it around. They had started terribly, but their defense was making stops in the red zone, and they were only down eight. They just needed to get some momentum on offense and give their defense a rest and some field position. Instead, Moreno fumbled on the second play, and when Denver recovered, Manning threw an interception. The highest-scoring offense in NFL history finished the first quarter with 11 yards, no first downs, an interception and a safety.

Seattle drove for a TD, Moreno sat under a tipped pass like a center fielder, and Seattle went into halftime up 22-0. You had to figure the game was over at that point, because a defense as good as Seattle's isn't going to give up a three-TD comeback — and they were getting the ball because of that decision to defer. Matt Prater executed a nice pop-up kick designed to prevent a big return from Percy Harvin, but the Bronco special teams left a huge lane between the hash marks and the numbers, which Harvin exploited en route to a return TD and a 29-0 lead.

Demaryius Thomas lost a fumble, Jermaine Kearse broke four weak tackle attempts to make it 36-0, and the Broncos finally drove for a score to limit their humiliation, but it was all academic after Harvin's TD. The Broncos lost 2 fumbles, 2 interceptions, 2 turnovers on downs, and a safety, plus 2 punts that traveled a combined 60 yards. Their tackling in the second half left a lot to be desired.

Malcolm Smith, MVP

Malcolm Smith finished the Super Bowl with 6 tackles, 4 assists, a fumble recovery, and an interception return for a touchdown. Smith is a third-year linebacker who played for Pete Carroll at USC. Smith started only eight games this season, though he intercepted passes in the last two games of the regular season and another against Colin Kaepernick in the NFC Championship Game.

He was a solid choice for MVP in a game with no obvious candidate. Cliff Avril set up both interceptions, Kam Chancellor made some big plays, Richard Sherman shut down his side of the field, and so on. Russell Wilson finished with 2 TDs and a 123.1 passer rating, but the MVP had to go to someone on defense. I leaned toward Avril, but Smith was a fine choice. He played very well the last two months of the season, and he made impact plays on Sunday.

Peyton Manning

Quoting Aikman again: "Peyton Manning, whether this is his last game or if he plays for two or three more years, he's going down as a top-five all-time quarterback." Outside of Aikman, I've heard a consensus in the media that the Broncos needed to win this game for Manning to be regarded as one of the very best in history. This game notwithstanding, Peyton Manning is the best quarterback I've ever seen, and I believe he's the best in history.

His command at the line of scrimmage is unparalleled. His ability to read and manipulate defenses changed the way the game is played, and changed what's expected of a quarterback. Manning probably had the best play-fakes in history, and he's the best ever at the sideline throw into coverage. He's one of the two or three best in history at avoiding sacks, and before the neck surgeries he threw maybe the most accurate deep ball we've ever seen. He's the greatest comeback QB in history, with more legendary comebacks than any other two players you could name.

This was the 13th team Manning has led to the playoffs, and he was the MVP of Super Bowl XLI. His value may have been illustrated most vividly in 2011, when Manning had neck surgery and the Colts dropped from 10-6 to 2-14. The ugly loss on Sunday will mar Manning's legacy for many, but you can't judge a 15-year veteran by a single game. Peyton didn't play well, but nothing he did would have won the game for Denver. No player is worth 35 points.

I'm no doctor, but Manning can't retire. Dan Marino's last game was a 62-7 loss to Jacksonville, a sad end to a brilliant career. Manning is still playing at a high level, and the Broncos should contend again in 2014. If he's medically cleared to play, he can't let this Super Bowl become our final memory of his playing career.

Announcers, Entertainment, and Commercials

Singing the Star-Spangled Banner, Renee Fleming was a nice change of pace from the pop stars we usually get, and needless to say, she has a very strong voice and sung the anthem beyond reproach. But my hero Dr. Z used to time the national anthem, and it's a habit I've picked up. Ms. Fleming's version took 2:04, another nine seconds if you count the musical intro, and that is very long. Dr. Z always looked for them to check in near a minute, which is kind of rushed, but 1:15-1:30 is perfectly adequate.

The FOX announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman was inoffensive. Buck has improved a great deal the last couple of years, to the point that I don't mind him. He's better than most play-by-play guys about identifying defensive players, and his general impression of the game is usually pretty on. Aikman doesn't do much to break down plays, but he'll break down the game. He's likable, sensible, and not a hype machine. This is not a strong team from an analysis standpoint, but it's usually a pleasant booth if you just want to watch the game.

Aikman's math on two-point conversions was a little strange, and I disagreed when he claimed, "You certainly don't get to the Super Bowl in this league with a quarterback who just manages games." With Super Bowl winners like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson, and several losers as bad or worse, that's obviously not true. But that's one line from a four-hour broadcast. Whoever did Pam Oliver's hair, makeup, and outfit for the Super Bowl needs to find a new line of work. She looked like a Muppet.

Bruno Mars put on an entertaining halftime show, with a weird interruption by the Red Hot Chili Peppers. I know it was planned, but it felt forced and it broke up the rhythm of the set. It was not a good idea, and it did not work. Mars' makeup was distracting, too. It looked like he was wearing about three pounds, mostly lipstick.

This was sort of a subdued year on the advertisement front, I thought. There were no great commercials, and no really terrible ones. I suppose my favorite was Best Buds, with the puppy and the horse, but it drew obvious comparisons to last year's tear-jerking Clydesdale ad, which was better, if only because it felt more original.

As usual, NFL advertising turned almost totally white for this game. There were more people of color in Bruno Mars' band than in all the ads combined. I don't know what that says about social progress in this country, except that it's discouraging. I didn't like the Cheerios ad from the first quarter, but featuring a mixed-race couple looked pretty bold by the end of the night, so I guess that merits a positive comment.

Season Honors

The NFL and the Associated Press announced this year's major award winners on Saturday night, with few surprises. Peyton Manning won his fifth MVP, a record that will probably stand for a very long time. He also won Offensive Player of the Year, though with only 33 of the 50 votes. I would love to ask those other 17 voters what more Manning could have done to win their support. Three of them voted for other quarterbacks.

Luke Kuechly was named Defensive Player of the Year, only 1.5 votes ahead of Robert Mathis. I would have preferred to see that go the other way. I chose Richard Sherman, who garnered four official votes. Eddie Lacy and Sheldon Richardson won Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and the Bears' Charles Tillman was named Walter Payton Man of the Year. Panthers coach Ron Rivera took home Coach of the Year, and nothing against Carolina, but their two wins were the shakiest choices by the voting committee. Rivera didn't become a great coach so much as he corrected his mistakes, and Carolina's improvement was largely attributable to new GM Dave Gettleman, and a draft that produced Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short.

Hall of Fame

The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced the Class of 2014 on Saturday: Derrick Brooks, Ray Guy, Claude Humphrey, Walter Jones, Andre Reed, Michael Strahan, and Aeneas Williams. It's good to see the maximum seven nominees elected, since there are so many worthy players waiting to be honored. Brooks and Jones were locks, slam-dunk first-year eligible players. Strahan, inexplicably passed over last year, was probably an easy choice for most of the voters.

Guy, Humphrey, Reed, and Williams are the interesting selections. Ray Guy is widely regarded as the greatest punter in history, and his Raider teammates raved about the advantages he created for them. The available statistics don't support those ideas, but it's encouraging to see the Hall of Fame voters acknowledge special teams, which they have systematically ignored for years. Guy's election is particularly surprising because although he made the ballot as a Seniors Candidate, he only fell off the standard ballot a couple years ago. The same voters who rejected Guy 15 times reversed course when he was nominated by the Seniors Committee.

Humphrey, the other Seniors Candidate, was an equally unlikely inductee. A finalist for the Hall of Fame Class of 2005, he fell short and dropped off the ballot. He was re-nominated as a Senior ... the very next year, 2006. No surprise, he was turned away again. Guy's success this year notwithstanding, I would really, really like for the Seniors Committee to stop re-nominating recently rejected candidates. I've supported Humphrey for years, and I'm glad he's in, but he was an awful nominee in 2006, simply because he didn't have a good chance to win election. It would have been wiser to nominate one of the many other worthy candidates, and return to Humphrey around, say, 2014. He is one of the very few players to be chosen by the Seniors Committee twice.

Reed is the longest discussion, so let's address Aeneas Williams. He was a standout cornerback and safety, with the Cardinals and Rams, respectively. Although overshadowed by Deion Sanders and Rod Woodson, Williams was a great defensive back with a tremendous peak and a long, productive career. He's a fine addition to the PFHOF.

Andre Reed was one of three wide receivers on the final ballot. Although Reed was a great player, he pretty clearly was the third-best Finalist at his own position, behind Marvin Harrison and Tim Brown. Anyone who believes Andre Reed was a better player than Marvin Harrison has no basis writing, voting, or commenting on the National Football League. Reed never led the NFL in any major receiving category, and he had four 1,000-yard receiving seasons, might have had a fifth if not for the 1987 strike. Reed was drafted in 1985; 13 players drafted between 1982-88 had four or more 1,000-yard receiving seasons: Jerry Rice (14), Tim Brown (9), Cris Carter (8), Henry Ellard and Michael Irvin (7), Gary Clark, Mark Clayton, Irving Fryar, Anthony Miller, and Sterling Sharpe (5), and Brian Blades, Mark Duper, and Andre Reed (4). Rice, Carter, Irvin, and now Reed are in the Hall of Fame. Brown didn't get enough votes this year, and Ellard has never even been a Semi-Finalist. I don't think Miller or Blades was ever even nominated, though they had as many impact seasons as Reed.

Reed's yardage numbers are not impressive, and he became a Hall of Fame candidate mostly because of his career receptions total, the second-highest in history when he retired. We understand today that receptions are not a terribly important statistic, that yards show the value a catch actually produced, but Reed benefits from playing at a time when receptions was the most prominent receiving stat.

Reed also played when the AFC was at its weakest. The Bills made four straight Super Bowls and got killed in three of them. Reed made seven Pro Bowls, ahead of AFC competition like Haywood Jeffires, Anthony Miller, and Al Toon. The best WRs of his generation (Carter, Clark, Ellard, Irvin, Rice, Sharpe) were all in the NFC. Tim Brown started his career just three years later than Reed. Receiving statistics were higher, but competition in the AFC was also stronger. Brown had nine 1,000-yard seasons and made nine Pro Bowls, and he didn't have a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing him the ball.

I don't mean to disparage Andre Reed, because he was a great player. My problem isn't so much with Reed getting into Canton, as with Reed getting voted in ahead of Marvin Harrison, Tim Brown, and Henry Ellard. I sincerely wish I understood why some voters chose Reed, but not Harrison or Brown. They had to know that can't be justified on merit, so I can't imagine their logic.

Click here for my Super Bowl preview article from two weeks ago.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:48 PM | Comments (3)