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January 30, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Super Bowl XLVII

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Seattle vs. Denver (-2½)

The Broncos and Seahawks face off in an intriguing Super Bowl pitting Peyton Manning and Denver's No. 1 offense against the Seattle's top-ranked defense in the NFL's first cold weather Super Bowl. The Broncos eased past the Patriots 26-16 in the AFC Championship Game, powered by 400 yards passing from Manning.

"We'd heard talk of eliminating the PATs," Manning said, "and we made it a reality. And Bill Belichick is bitter. That's probably because Wes Welker took out Aqib Talib. Of course, it didn't help matters that Wes mounted our mascot, Thunder, and rode through town shouting, 'The Patriots are leaving! The Patriots are leaving!'

"I refuse to get into a war of words with the Seahawks and Richard Sherman. There's only one defense against Sherman's chatter, and that's an English teacher. But I really like Sherman's 'Beats By Dre' headphones commercial. That 'Hear What You Want' slogan should sell a lot of headphones, because when Richard's talking, everyone needs a pair.

"I expect the equivalent of a chess match. Sherman, on the other hand, probably expects more of a checkers match. That's the only logical explanation for why he keeps saying 'King Me.'

"But we'll have to be at our best against the Seahawks. They have the league's top-rated pass defense, a fact which supports what most observers conclude — the Seahawks run 'pass interference' better than anyone. But I've got the perfect plan to combat Seattle's 'hands on' approach, and that's with my own 'hand off' approach. Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball may be the keys to our offense. Or will they? Sure, running the ball will be a factor, but running the ball after a catch will be an even bigger factor."

The Seahawks KO'd the 49ers 23-17 to take the NFC Championship in a memorable battle fraught with emotion and momentum swings. Seattle overcame a 10-0 second quarter deficit before taking the lead for good in the fourth quarter, clinching the win on a stellar defensive play by Sherman in the end zone.

"The 49ers are no longer NFC champions," Pete Carroll said. "I can certainly empathize, because I know what it's like to vacate a title. But what an exciting game it was. And I'm sure you saw my gracious post-game exchange with Jim Harbaugh afterwards. I think we've put our past behind us. And by 'past,' I mean me asking Jim 'What's your deal?' and Jim asking some of my players 'Who's your dealer?'

"And speaking of 'dealers,' I totally advocate medicinal marijuana in the NFL. I think it would improve players' health, not to mention encourage impressionable young fans to 'take their medicine.' Player injuries would decline markedly, and there would be a proportionate increase in doctors' note. Additionally, there'd be a great tie-in between Seattle's 'Legion of Boom' and Cypress Hill's 'Temple of Boom.'

"Anyway, I just can't say enough about this team. They're awesome. I don't know what I've paid more: compliments in Seattle, or parents at USC. When all is said and done, I have to let my players express their individuality. I've got to let Richard be Richard. In other words, I've got to let him be a 'Dick.'

"Up and down the roster, on both sides of the ball, this team is solid. We are incredibly well-balanced. On one hand, I've got Sherman, the 'Seattle Super Phonic,' who never shuts up; on the other hand, I've got Marshawn Lynch, who won't speak. Marshawn was fined $50,000 earlier this year by the league for refusing to talk to media. That's not an issue to me. I've paid way more for people's silence."

The festivities kick off with a stirring rendition of the national anthem by opera star Renee Fleming, widely known in New Jersey as "The Soprano." At one point, Fleming hits such a high note that glass ceilings all over the league are shattered. Denver's Knowshon Moreno is so moved by Fleming's voice that he wets himself. Denver head coach John Fox puts his hand over his heart, not necessarily to honor America, but to make sure it's still beating.

The Seahawks win the toss and elect to receive. After the teams trade punts, a Seattle turnover leads to a 21-yard Manning touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas, who clearly interferes while outmuscling Sherman for the ball before racing 10 yards to paydirt. Matt Pater later adds a field goal to give the Broncos a 10-0 lead. Fox cameras show John Elway beaming in his luxury suite, but his expression quickly changes when those same cameras show Doug Williams polishing his Super Bowl XXII ring.

The Seahawks bounce back in the second quarter as Lynch steamrolls the Denver defense. Lynch busts in for a one-yard score, and is showered by tons of Skittles, tossed from the brand new Skittles blimp, helmed by a crew of local strippers hired to kick off the candy's new slogan, "Make it Rain(bow)." Steven Hauschka and Prater trade field goals, and it's 13-10 Denver at the half.

At halftime, Bruno Mars takes the field, and the tweener demographic skyrockets only briefly before he's chased from the stage by the Red Hot Chili Peppers and special guest Brandon Marshall. Mars joins Janet Jackson's breast, MIA's middle finger, and Up With People as things we never wanted to see at the Super Bowl.

The RHCPs and Marshall appear clad in only socks covering their genitalia, flame-shooting helmets on their heads, and orange cleats. Roger Goodell is outraged, and later fines the five-some $15,000 for their footwear.

The Chili Peppers dedicate their first tune to Eli Manning and his 34 turnovers, and break into their 1991 smash, "Give it Away." Not ones to forget that other Manning, Peyton, the band rocks MetLife with "Scar Tissue." Then, New Jersey governor Chris Christie gets a shout out with "Under the Bridge," followed by a smoking version of the Eagles' "Life in the Fast Lane."

Almost on cue, the weather takes a turn for the worse as the Chili Peppers begin their 2006 hit, "Snow (Uh Oh)." Next, the Peppers dedicate "Hump De Bump" to Mark Sanchez and the "butt fumble." In the grand finale, the Jets' Antonio Cromartie and his 12 kids join the Chili Peppers as they tear into 2002's "Can't Stop."

The Seahawks force a quick Denver three-and-out to start the second half, then take a 17-13 lead when Wilson finds Golden Tate for a 30-yard strike. Denver strikes back with a Manning TD pass to Julius Thomas, and the Seahawks tie it on a Hauschka field goal. After the Broncos stop the Seahawks in the red zone late in the fourth quarter, another Hauschka kick give Seattle a 23-20 lead.

The Broncos take over with six minutes left in the fourth, and in a New Jersey minute (which is equivalent to five minutes), they're in scoring position. Facing a third-and-12 from the Seattle 16, Manning audibles at the line and checks to "Nantucket," which is a double-pick for Eric Decker, who rolls off a J. Thomas and D. Thomas screen and scores the game-winner.

Denver wins, 27-23.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:40 PM | Comments (0)

January 29, 2014

Wacky Wolves

In this information age, and especially in the extremely data-conscious NBA, there are a variety of ways to judge a team both by statistics and the eyes. While the only win-loss records and playoff series records truly count, this isn't a world with just two or three games on national TV every week.

We can open up the "black box" beyond Ws and Ls to an astonishing degree, whether it be through League Pass, possession-based statistics or cool Kirk Goldsberry diagrams on Grantland. Heck, if I want to know what every shot by my team's ninth man from inside 15 feet looks like, I can call up the video on the league's official website.

However, there are some pretty intuitive, basic metrics associated with a team's season-long body of work that usually are telling of quality. Average margin of victory or defeat is one of these. Obviously, the best teams should beat the average team by more than the merely good ones. And the worst should lose by more per game than the mediocre. For one team this season, that statistic is beyond anomalous.

According to recent history, a point differential of plus 4.0 or higher is the standard for title contention. Both of last year's losing conference finalists, Memphis and Indiana, had average margins of 4.0 and 4.1, respectively. The 2011 Mavericks took home the title with a 4.2 mark. And as you'd expect in a 30-team league where 16 teams make the postseason, the worst playoff team is in the negatives or close to it.

This year's Minnesota Timberwolves, owners of an under-.500 record as of Monday and the 11th best record in the Western Conference, currently have a point differential of plus 4.6.

That is a downright incomprehensible statistic with the season just barely past the midpoint. Now, the only way that becomes even remotely possible is by blowing out a bunch of games and then losing close ones. Sure enough, 14 of the Wolves' 22 wins have been by 10 or more. In two-possession or less games, Minnesota is 3-12. Friday's one-point win over Golden State was the team's first in a one-possession game.

So, is Minnesota just about the unluckiest team in NBA history, or are they just that bad when it matters most? The answer, unsurprisingly, is a little bit of both.

To be sure, the Timberwolves are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. They have a top-10 player in Kevin Love, a great offensive center in Nikola Pekovic, a great defender and scorer on each wing, respectively, in Corey Brewer and Kevin Martin, plus Ricky Rubio at the point. That five-man lineup, by far the Wolves' top-choice group, should theoretically win two-thirds of its games, according to the net efficiency statistics on the wonderful 82games.com website. The fact that the winning percentage effectively crashes down that bad in crunch time, is evidence of at least some bad luck.

One common explanation for Minnesota's problems in close games is that Rubio is such a horrible shooter that teams play off of him to devote more attention to Love (and to a lesser degree Pekovic). There's something to that theory, but not everything. Otherwise, if that was such an effective defensive strategy, it could be replicated all game and the T-Wolves certainly wouldn't have a top-10 offense.

Furthermore, pretty much everyone on the Wolves' core unit has issues in some way in crunch time, even the great Love, who is no stranger to double teams in other quarters.

The problem doesn't seem to be, to me at least, solely that Rubio can't shoot. Shooting skill from a point guard from long range is something you obviously want, but not everybody can be Steph Curry or Damian Lillard. And it's probably asking too much when your point guard is a passing wizard.

The problem is that he's a subpar finisher who has no midrange game whatsoever to keep the defense honest with. Just take a look at his shot chart for the season. Then, compare it to any point guard in the top half of the league offensively. You'll almost definitely see the zones around the basket and in midrange with better percentages than Rubio. However, in crunch time, his 17 percent field goal percentage is bound to come up, simply because I refuse to believe anyone in the NBA can be such a poor shooter. If it doesn't, then the T-Wolves might honestly be better off benching him in those scenarios.

The good news for Minnesota is not only the likelihood of the close games record improving to the mean, but that the schedule gets a little bit easier as well. If the Wolves keep doing what they've been doing all year, but just improve in those nail-biters, it will probably be enough to make the playoffs, even in the brutal Western Conference.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 7:02 PM | Comments (0)

Pre-March Madness Games Not to Miss

While true college basketball fans have been sizing up their March Madness picks since November, most of us are usually late to the game and have to make a New Year's resolution to pay attention and win their pool this year. So if you don't watch 10 games a week, allow me to give you some regular season games you shouldn't miss if you want to make educated picks come March.

#1 Arizona at Utah – February 19

Despite playing at home on Sunday, the Wildcats only managed to squeak by the Utes 65-56. Utah was winning with under 11 minutes to play. Arizona had an off night shooting, but still managed 20 offensive rebounds. Arizona doesn't have a ranked team remaining on their regular season schedule, which shows the weakness of the Pac-12. If they are going to lose pre-tournament, Utah could be the team to do it. At Cal on February 1 could also be trouble.

#2 Syracuse at #17 Duke – February 22

While Arizona has a shot to run the table, Syracuse has a much tougher road to perfection. They play Duke twice, at Pitt, and at Virginia. The hostile environment of Cameron will show what kind of chops the Orange have. Neutral wins against Minnesota, Cal, and Baylor were good, but those teams are not nearly of the caliber of Duke. A win at Cameron Indoor Stadium could make Syracuse the last team standing in a lot of brackets come March.

#3 Florida at #11 Kentucky – February 15

I don't know why the AP has Florida at No. 3. I'm not impressed. Their best win is over Memphis on a neutral court. Their road wins at Arkansas, at Auburn, and at Alabama were all too close against such relatively poor teams. At Kentucky will show if Florida is for real or not. Then they'll have at Ole Miss a week later to show if you should think about letting Florida take an early exit pre-Sweet 16.

#4 Wichita State vs. Missouri State – March 1

The Shockers' closest game this season was at Missouri State where they needed overtime to win by three. They have Missouri State on March 1 — their final game of the regular season. You can bet Missouri State will be about as upset minded as a team can be. Also of note is that at home, the Shockers beat Indiana State by 20. We'll see how they manage on the road on February 5. I would think an undefeated Wichita State would earn a No. 1 seed, though there are no guarantees there. Their most impressive win is at Saint Louis — currently ranked #19, not a team to sneeze at. Is that enough? Considering the weakness of the other candidates — or rather — how much the Big Ten and Big 12 are beating each other up, I think it is very possible.

#5 San Diego State at New Mexico – February 22

The Aztecs' only loss (by 9-point to Arizona in November) might be one of their biggest strengths in evaluating them. Winning at Kansas was obviously more impressive, but this team can stick with anybody. Their defensive strength, allowing 56.1 points per game, good for third in the nation, is a major strength come tournament time. Teams go cold and teams get hot, but good defense is good defense. It is one consistent you can count on. But New Mexico is nothing to sneeze at. They beat Cincinnati and Marquette back in December.

#6 Kansas at Baylor – February 4

Every year, I think somebody will finally stomp on Kansas and dethrone them from a place of dominance in the Big 12. And every year I'm wrong. I know Baylor is flailing and that Kansas has more difficult games on paper than Baylor, but it is still a losable game. Baylor is like a low seed in the tournament. They could make a run and cause some real problems. They probably won't, but if they catch fire for a game or three, that could spell trouble. They have the talent. Knocking off Kansas would be a hell of a jump start. If Kansas can dominate at Baylor, I like their chances of responding well to the pressure of the tournament.

#7 Michigan State at #10 Michigan – February 23

Who doesn't like a good revenge story? The Spartans have managed three overtime wins against conference foes, but Michigan is their only conference loss. With the toughness of the Big Ten, I doubt it will stay that way. At Wisconsin, at Purdue, home vs. Iowa, and at Ohio State could all be problems for the Spartans. The Spartans didn't show up against North Carolina back in early December, but for the most part I think we're seeing a solid team that will be battle tested and ready for the tournament ... if they aren't completely and totally worn down.

#8 Oklahoma State at #16 Iowa State – March 8

Winning away from home has been a problem for the Cowboys. They lost to Memphis on a neutral court, lost at Kansas State, lost at Kansas, and lost at Oklahoma. They have a few games to figure out the road thing, but their final test heading into tournament play is at Iowa State. That game will be a great indication of whether or not Oklahoma State has figured out how to win away from home.

#9 Villanova at #20 Creighton – February 16

I think Villanova surprised a lot of people when they beat Kansas and Iowa in back to back games on a neutral court back in late November. I think Villanova surprised a lot more teams when they got destroyed at home by Creighton last week. You can't shine a 28-point loss no matter how hard you try. Yes, Creighton hit 21 three-pointers, a feat they're likely not to repeat, but allowing a team to hit that many three pointers is just bad defense. Ethan Wragge went 9-14 from beyond the arc and didn't shoot another shot all night, not even a free throw. We'll see if 'Nova learns how to play defense when they meet Creighton again.

#13 Cincinnati at #12 Louisville – January 30

These two teams sit atop the new to the world "American Conference." Good matchups between these two and Memphis will help to make this conference more legitimate. SMU and UConn seem reasonably decent teams, but the rest of the conference looks quite weak right now. Is it a conference that has three teams in the tournament or five? Watching Louisville and Cincinnati face off may help you determine that. They also play on February 22 at Cincy.

#14 Wisconsin at #15 Iowa – February 22

Wisconsin won its first 16 games, then lost three straight. So it goes in the Big Ten. Road wins are hard to come by, even against the sixth and seventh best teams in the conference (and sometimes even lower on the scale). Iowa at Wisconsin was a great matchup where the Badgers came out on top by four points. Look for the rematch to have a similar quality.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:09 AM | Comments (0)

January 28, 2014

Now is Time to Radically Change College Football

With the dawning of a major Division 1 college football playoff starting next season, it might be the perfect time to start separating the men from the boys, so to speak. Or at least begin plans to create a third tier in D1 football and give those "tweener" schools their own championship.

For years, I have been arguing with my friends, co-workers and family football fanatics (sorry about the alliteration) that the NCAA needs to completely revamp what its football conferences look like, how games are scheduled and how the post-season selections are made. And while I applaud the Association's efforts to this point in getting a long-overdue and long-awaited playoff in place, more could be done to ensure nearly total objectivity in deeming playoff worthiness.

At the heart of my grandiose plan to overhaul the college football landscape is to scrap the current conference alignments, put the largest and most prestigious schools into eight major conferences, and create a middle tier for those schools too big for FCS and too small for FBS. The NCAA would then be responsible for creating schedules that prevent power schools from padding their dockets with creampuffs. Here's how it would work.

If we look only at the conferences that have been considered previously as BCS automatic qualifiers (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC, and Big East/AAC), there are 72 schools. To maintain balanced conferences, we would then add the schools with the highest average attendance from Conference USA, Mountain West Conference, and independents to get to 96 schools. That would give us eight conferences with 12 teams each. Then the conferences would be realigned geographically without regard to traditional ties and without divisions. For example, a Pacific Conference would consist of the 12 schools located in Washington, Oregon and California.

Each team's 12-game schedule would comprise eight schools from within their own conference and four schools from different conferences with similar strengths. Each conference would be split into thirds for non-conference scheduling purposes — schools would play teams from the same third in the other conferences. This would prevent schools from scheduling patsies to pad their wins and stats. It also would create some dynamic matchups all throughout the season. Imagine if Alabama had to play the likes of Michigan State, Stanford, Oklahoma, and Florida State every year.

Then, at the end of the season, the top two teams in each conference would play a championship game with the winners advancing to an eight-team playoff and the losers heading to one of the four major bowl games — Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta. The conferences would "cross-pollinate" in the bowls every year, so one year the Rose Bowl could have Oregon and Texas A&M and then Florida and Ohio State the next.

This would be done in every bowl game — not just the major ones — to get away from the mundane conference-vs.-conference matchups every year. I mean, the Sun Bowl doesn't have to be a poor man's Rose Bowl every year. Plus, the bowls would be reduced to provide a reward for those schools that do exceptionally well. The eligibility minimum would be raised to 7 wins with the stipulation that a team finished at least 4-4 within its conference. My unwavering perception has always been that teams that can't muster a winning record within their own conference should not be worthy of bowl consideration.

So what to do with the "little guys" that get dropped out of this new alignment? Create a middle tier where they have their own schedules, playoffs and championship. Granted, there would only be about 30 teams to start with, but with as many schools making the jump from FCS to FBS in the next few years, it would only be a matter of time until it had enough schools to make things really interesting.

Speaking of interesting, another outside-the-box idea would be to steal a concept from the soccer leagues in England where poor-performing teams get dumped out of the major league and dropped down to a lower tier. Imagine if that was how it worked in college football. So, for example, every five years the NCAA would take the lowest performing schools — both in record and in attendance — and drop them into this middle tier, and then promote the best performers from the middle to the major tier. I know it's a stretch, and it would cause scheduling headaches every half-decade, but it certainly would put more onus on universities to recruit and market at a high level to maintain their "major" status.

While this all sounds like a grandiose, pie-in-the-sky idea, some of it could have merit someday. One of the aspects of the new playoff format that I'm skeptical of is having a selection committee. How much will tradition, conference and margin of victory play into these people's decisions when determining who should be included in the playoff? Two quick thoughts on that: First, the playoff should be expanded to eight teams and, second, the selections should be determined by what happens on the field and not by a potentially biased committee of humans.

Nonetheless, I am excited to see what next season holds and how the playoff shakes out — and to see if the distant future holds a radical rethinking of how college football should look and work.

Posted by Adam Russell at 11:03 AM | Comments (0)

January 27, 2014

Fixing the Pro Bowl

The Pro Bowl isn't broken, exactly. In 2013, the Pro Bowl drew a higher television rating than Game 3 of the World Series. The problem isn't so much that nobody is watching the Pro Bowl as that everyone hates it. Fans complain about the game. Players don't care, and they don't act like they care. Many of the players voted in choose not to attend, and the Super Bowl teams aren't represented at all. The coaches can't do anything creative, and defensive strategies are limited by rule.

The result doesn't matter. There was a serious AFC/NFC rivalry in the '70s, but these days no one cares. And while all-star games used to serve as a national showcase for the best talent, there are so many games on TV now that fans don't have to watch their heroes in an exhibition game, because they can see them in meaningful action if they have a half-decent television package.

All of these factors combine for a dissatisfying fan experience. The NFL has recognized this for years, and it's tried various tricks to put some life back into the game. The league moved up the date, before the Super Bowl instead of after, and briefly experimented with holding the game at the Super Bowl site rather than in Hawaii. This year, it introduced the new "unconferenced" format, with players elected through the normal method, then drafted onto teams by retired Hall of Famers Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders.

I haven't watched the Pro Bowl in years, and that includes last night's game. Team Rice won 22-21, on a last-minute touchdown pass from Alex Smith to DeMarco Murray, and a two-point conversion by Mike Tolbert. From what I've read, it sounds like the best Pro Bowl in a long time, and the unconferenced draft was an interesting idea. Even though the Pro Bowl might not be broken, and might even be trending in the right direction, it can still be dramatically improved. The basic goals would be to ensure that:

1. Players want to participate, and they play to win.

2. Players can showcase all their skills, including defensive players.

3. Fans care about which team wins.

4. Meeting the other conditions does not negatively affect the quality of the NFL's regular season or postseason.

If the Pro Bowl fulfills all those conditions, you suddenly have the best All-Star Game in North America. A stakes game, showing how the best players match up against one another when they're trying hard, and a game in which the audience is invested in the outcome. How do we make this happen?

1. Players want to participate, and they play to win.

This is the easiest condition to meet, because all it takes is money.

The simplest solution is to offer every player on the winning team $1 million, with the losing team getting a free trip to Hawaii ... but no cash. A million dollars is a lot of money even for NFL players. The top quarterbacks and the guys with major endorsement deals might not get hyped about it, but for 99% of the league, a million is a very big deal. If the winning team is making that much, and the losers don't see any of it, you will absolutely get players going hard in the Pro Bowl. People will start calling it the Million Dollar Game.

Of course, now you're talking about doling out $50 million, and you're kind of shafting the losing team. What if we offered $500,000 to the winners, and $50,000 to the losers? The 2013 salary cap was $123 million, about $2.3 million per player — less than $150,000 per game, on average. Five hundred grand is still a pretty serious incentive to go hard, 50k and a vacation in Hawaii is a nice consolation for the losing team, and the total payout of $28 million or so is manageable for the league and its sponsors, well worth the price if it makes the Pro Bowl a must-see event.

We can tinker with the exact amounts, but there's an obvious solution to getting players interested and playing hard: pay the winning team A LOT, and pay the losing team much less. I also like the idea of a significant bonus for the Pro Bowl MVP. Now players want to participate, they want to win, and they want to stay in the game.

2. Players can showcase all their skills, including defensive players.

Football is a rough sport. No one wants to see a Pro Bowl marred by serious injuries. But if the NFL wants the Pro Bowl to be a game rather than just a skills competition, it needs to be a legit game. That means no restrictions on blitzing, no special rules of any kind. Fans want a meaningful game, so it needs the same rules as other meaningful games. And we need to drop the idea that everyone gets to play. Other than backup quarterbacks, everyone will play, on special teams. But Drew Brees warming the bench for three quarters is contrary to the spirit of a competitive game, and unless you're a big Alex Smith fan, it's disappointing for the viewers to watch third-stringers handle the most critical moments of the game.

I would also favor returning the Pro Bowl to the week after the Super Bowl. That would allow Super Bowl players to participate, and it would give the coaches time to install at least a basic gameplan. Fans would tune in just to see how Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh match up when their rosters are full of all-stars.

On a related note, the Super Bowl should occur one week after the conference championship games, not two.

3. Fans care about who wins.

The NFL had a good idea this year, with the unconferenced Rice vs. Sanders format. The "fantasy football, for real" angle was really interesting ... until we learned that they would pick each position individually. It would have been fascinating to see who went for a quarterback first, who prioritized defense, and so on. The league should mandate the number of players per team at each position (no fair taking both long snappers!), but not the order in which they're chosen.

Fantasy football is sensationally popular, and most fantasy owners cite draft day as their favorite part. Introducing a Pro Bowl draft was a great idea, and so was getting high-profile ex-players involved. Few fans have any meaningful conference allegiance at this point, but games are more fun and more dramatic when we care who wins. So how do you get viewers invested in an exhibition game? With captains the fans care about and personalized teams.

This year's game didn't even need captains, just coaches: the league could have billed the game as Bill Belichick vs. Jim Harbaugh, and ESPN would've cancelled all its other programming to have Skip Bayless yell about the game. The coaches should be paid the same way as the players. That gives them the same incentive, and it gives fans one more thing to root for or against. Someone who hates Harbaugh and doesn't want him to cash in suddenly has a rooting interest.

But not every year will produce that kind of coaching matchup. If we'd gotten Mike McCoy vs. Ron Rivera, you couldn't market the game on those two. Celebrity captains are a good idea, and people associated with the game make the most sense. Ideally you'd choose individuals who inspire strong reaction. Brett Favre vs. Michael Strahan. Bill Parcells vs. Mike Ditka. Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher, Steve Young and Michael Irvin, Warren Sapp and Tony Siragusa, Tim Tebow and anyone. Fans identify with and against those people, and if the celebrities personally draft their own teams, you're rooting for or against Favre or Parcells or whoever.

4. Meeting the other conditions does not negatively affect the quality of the NFL's regular season or postseason.

I'm proposing a game in which some of the league's best players are going 100%, and everyone's playing special teams. There are going to be injuries. If any player suffers an injury in the Pro Bowl that forces him to miss games the next season, the league should give his team a salary cap exemption or an extra Injured Reserve - Designated for Return. Maybe there could even be some sort of compensatory draft pick so teams don't try to keep their players out of the Pro Bowl.

* * *

Some of my proposals are more realistic than others. Some of them, the details are flexible. But they form the core of an idea to revive interest in the Pro Bowl, even to make it a major event, the biggest exhibition game in sports.

No one skips the game without a legitimate injury, polarizing captains draft all-star players, and everyone goes hard because the winning team gets paid. There are no artificial restrictions on strategy or playing time: it's a real game, played to win. Implement those basic ideas, and fans will respond.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:37 PM | Comments (0)

January 24, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Proposition Bets

1. Winner: Seattle/Denver
2. Versus spread: Seattle (+ 2½)/Denver (-2½)
3. Total points (game): over/under 47½
4. Total points (1st quarter): over/under 9½
5. Total points (2nd quarter): over/under 13½
6. Total points (3rd quarter): over/under 9½
7. Total points (4th quarter): over/under 13½
8. Versus spread (halftime): Seattle (+1 1/2)/Denver (-1 1/2)
9. Number of team captains (both teams) at midfield for coin toss: over/under 8½
10. National anthem: a cappella/accompanied by music
11. Length of national anthem (from start of lyrics): over/under 1:34½
12. Temperature at game time: over/under 38½
13. Winner of coin toss: Seattle/Denver
14. Coin toss called: heads/tails
15. Coin toss result: heads/tails
16. Seattle to: kick/receive
17. First possession begins at yard line: over/under 20½
18. First play from scrimmage: run/pass
19. Yards gained on first play from scrimmage: over/under 4½
20. First Seattle pass: complete/incomplete
21. First Denver pass: complete/incomplete
22. First penalty called on: offense/defense
23. Yardage length of first accepted penalty: over/under 5½
24. Peyton Manning passing yardage: over/under 252½
25. Russell Wilson turnovers: over/under 1½
26. Wilson passing yardage: over/under 184½
27. Manning turnovers: over/under ½
28. Demaryius Thomas receiving yards: over/under 92½
29. Marshawn Lynch rushing yards: over/under 115½
30. Doug Baldwin receptions: over/under 4½
31. Eric Decker receiving yards: over/under 70½
32. Knowshon Moreno rushing yards: over/under 78½
33. Michael Bennett sacks: over/under ½
34. Earl Thomas interceptions: over/under ½
35. Richard Sherman passes defended: over/under 1½
36. Dustin Colquitt punt average: over/under 45½
37. Wilson rushes + Manning incompletions: over/under 19½
38. Julius Thomas touchdowns: over/under ½
39. Accepted defensive pass interference penalties: over/under 2½
40. Matt Prater point-after-touchdown conversions: over/under 3½
41. Steven Hauschka missed field goals: over/under ½
42. Lynch rushing touchdowns: over/under ½
43. First team to score: Seattle/Denver
44. Points of first score: over/under 3½
45. Yardage length of first Seattle touchdown: over/under 9½
46. Yardage length of first Denver touchdown: over/under 11½
47. Jersey number of first Seahawk to score a touchdown: over/under 24½
48. Jersey number of first Bronco to score a touchdown: over/under 80½
49. First touchdown: pass/rush
50. Defensive/special teams touchdowns (both teams): over/under ½
51. Coaches challenges: over/under 1½
52. Two-point conversion attempts: over/under ½
53. Total points (halftime): over/under 23½
54. Add total points at halftime; sum is: odd/even
55. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (1st half): over/under 1:58½
56. Length of longest Prater field goal: over/under 41½
57. Total yards (both teams): over/under 707½
58. Wes Welker receiving yards: over/under 40½
59. Seattle third-down efficiency: over/under 37.66½ %
60. Denver third-down efficiency: over/under 38.47½ %
61. Missed field goals: over/under ½
62. Seattle first downs: over/under 21½
63. Denver first downs: over/under 22½
64. Seattle penalties: over/under 6½
65. Denver penalties: over/under 5½
66. Tie score at any point in fourth quarter: yes/no
67. Largest lead at any point in game: over/under 7½
68. Attendance: over/under 81,756½
69. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (2nd half): over/under 1:59½
70. Points scored in last two minutes of game: over/under 7½
71. Time outs called in last two minutes of game: over/under 2½
72. Jersey number of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 18½
73. Letters in last name of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 7½
74. Duration of game: over/under 3:19
75. Referee's jersey number: over/under 71½
76. Seattle time of possession: over/under 30:01½
77. Denver time of possession: over/under 29:07½

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:08 AM | Comments (1)

January 23, 2014

Foul Territory: Sochi Sochi For You

* What's the Opposite of "No Sochi For You?," or Vladimir Putin Won't Let Two Women Get it on in Sochi, But He Will Let Them Get on It — Former Olympic hurdler Lolo Jones made the U.S. bobsled team for the Sochi Olympics. Jones will become the ninth America to represent the U.S. in both the Summer and Winter games, although she'll be most remembered for her performance in the "fall" Olympics.

* In the NBA, 12 Steps Isn't Even Called "Traveling," or He Must Like Tequila, Because There's a "Worm" in the Bottle — Dennis Rodman has checked in to rehabilitation center to be treated for alcoholism. Rodman hopes to add "the habit" to "court-side cameraman" to the list of things he's kicked.

* He Can Do More Than Just Shoot the "J," or He Got the Munchies — Florida State basketball recruit Cinmeon Bowers was arrested in Marianna, Florida for eating marijuana in order to conceal it from police. It was Bowers' first arrest, and also his first taste of the NBA.

* Throne of Game, or Chillin' With the Weasel — Roger Goodell will sit outside at Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium on February 2nd. If there's one thing MetLife Stadium knows, it's how to put an "ass" in the seats.

* That "Rubbed" Him the Wrong Way, or Patriot Waylayed — Bill Belichick accused Wes Welker of trying to hurt Aqib Talib, who was injured on a pick play in the first quarter of the AFC Championship Game. Welker hit Talib's knees, but in his defense, Welker said he was aiming for the waist, where he thought the gun would be.

* Here She Comes Now Singing "Mon-ey, Mon-ey," or in the Race to Get to Sochi, the Jamaicans Also Finished Last — A crowd-funding site has raised over $50,000 for the Jamaican bobsled team. A collection page was set up on Monday following word that the team had qualified for the Sochi Olympics, but still needed $80,000 to make the trip. Most of the money will be used to bribe Vladimir Putin into allowing reggae at the Olympics.

* Don't Skate the Player, Skate the Game, or Checks, Mate — Vancouver Canucks head coach John Tortarella was suspended for 15 days without pay for his role in an altercation outside the Calgary Flames' locker room after the first period of Saturday's Canucks/Flames game. Tortarella tried to enter the Calgary locker room before being told to "get the Canuck out of here!"

* Kicked to the Curb, or the PAT May Get the Boot — The NFL is considering a proposal to eliminate extra points. NFL kickers united in opposition to the plan, but in arguing for reasons in support of the PAT, they came up with only a single point.

* It's Another Sellout For Notre Dame, or a Contract of Biblical Proportions — Notre Dame and Under Armour announced an apparel and shoe contract worth $90 million, the most valuable in college sports history. There is no way to know what Jesus would do, but now we know what He would wear.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:20 PM | Comments (0)

2014 College Football Week 1 Preview

It's out! It's out! The estimable Matt Sarzyiak's college sports TV schedule site now has all that is known of next years football season posted now, and as in the last few years, I endeavor to bring you the earliest Week 1 college football preview.

I have to say, next year's first week is shaping up to be much better than years' past. Normally there's one or maaaybe two premier games (Virginia Tech vs Alabama, Georgia at Clemson last year) and a whole bunch of middling games like Washington State at Auburn.

This year, Week 1 has five games where both teams finished last year in the final BCS top 25. It's a top heavy schedule, though. Of the rest of the 74 Division 1-A (I still won't call it FBS) teams in action the first week, 42 are playing non-Division 1-A opponents. I'll still take it.

Those five games are:

CLEMSON AT GEORGIA — Clemson makes the return trip. It'll be a chance to shake off what was really a disappointing season for the Bulldogs, and a chance for Clemson to show that last year was not a fluke.

TEXAS A&M AT SOUTH CAROLINA — This will be the inaugural game on the SEC Network, unless they go with Temple at Vanderbilt first in the doubleheader.

FRESNO STATE AT USC — This game means these two teams will be playing against each other twice in a row, as USC took down Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl last month.

LSU VS. WISCONSIN (HOUSTON) — Now Houston is getting into the mix with Dallas and Atlanta as an annual site for Week 1 big-time neutral site games, and they start off with an excellent one. We'll see if the SEC's dominance over the Big Ten continues apace.

FLORIDA STATE VS. OKLAHOMA STATE (ARLINGTON, TX) — Wowie, what a matchup! What a test for the national champions, especially considered how untested they appeared in last year's regular season.

Other games of note:

PENN STATE VS. CENTRAL FLORIDA (DUBLIN, IRELAND) — So ... this is kind of weird. Isn't it ordained in the bible that any college football game taking place in Ireland has to include Notre Dame? Penn State sort of works, with the McGloins, McQuearys, and O'Briens of their past, but Central Florida? Did the city fathers of Dublin see that their coach was named George O'Leary and said, "Faith and Begorrah! We must have them!"

OHIO STATE VS. NAVY (BALTIMORE) — Navy had a decent year last year, and are basically at home, and so I really have to wonder if this is the biggest get in the history of the CBS Sports Network, who will be televising the game.

WEST VIRGINIA VS. ALABAMA (ATLANTA) — Too bad West Virginia couldn't stay competitive for juuuust a few more years.

BOISE STATE VS. OLE MISS (ATLANTA) — Too bad Boise State couldn't stay competitive for juuuust a few more years. Then again, Ole Miss is no Alabama.

MIAMI AT LOUISVILLE — This will be your Labor Day night game.

UCLA AT VIRGINIA — Last year, Virginia beat a bowl-bound BYU team in the opener and then stunk the rest of the year. Will history repeat itself?

UTSA AT HOUSTON — I highlight this game to ask, with LSU/Wisconsin in town, will even 100 people attend this game?

ARKANSAS AT AUBURN — Auburn kicks off their SEC title defense by making Bret Bielema's life remain difficult.

CAL AT NORTHWESTERN — Another premier game! Sincerely, 2005.

NORTH DAKOTA STATE AT IOWA STATE — Is there anyone who thinks Iowa State is going to win this game?

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:29 AM | Comments (0)

January 22, 2014

Interesting First Week at Australian Open

The Australian Open has begun last week and survived through scorching heat without any notable upsets outside of the fifth-seeded Juan Martin del Potro's second-round loss to Roberto Bautista-Agut in the men's draw and the sixth-seeded Petra Kvitova's loss to Luksika Kumkhum first-round loss in the women's draw.

The heat was the main topic of headlines throughout the week. A few ball-kids struggled with the heat and had to receive emergency care, the bottoms of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's shoes began melting on the court, and a Twitter picture of a pan with two eggs cooking on it as if it was on the grill made the rounds of the social media.

Some players, such as Maria Sharapova and Andy Roddick, argued that it was inhumane to play the matches at these levels of heat, while some other players like, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Serena Williams, felt that it was part of the game. Recently retired players such as Andre Agassi and Roddick also felt that it was part of the game and that the players should prepare for the Australian Open expecting to deal with such conditions.

Agassi claimed that the heat was an opportunity to differentiate oneself from the competitors, and Roddick bluntly said, "Well, part of me finds it entertaining that every time we go down to Australia we act surprised that it's hot outside. It's funny, the guys who have the reputation for being prepared aren't the guys keeling over. You're never going to see Roger (Federer) outwardly showing heat. You're not going to see Rafa (Nadal) doing it. You're not going to see Novak (Djokovic) anymore; you're not going to see him doing it."

During the first week, the weather continuously remained above 100 degrees Fahrenheit for four days, and then dropped around 25 degrees in the middle of the fifth day to finally fall below 90 degrees. Other rarities also took place in the first week. The French seemed to handle the heat very well, as eight Frenchmen won their first two rounds to reach the round of 16s. This was the most since the 1971 French Open for the "bleu-blanc-rouge" in a Slam tournament — note: as I write this, none made it to the quarterfinals. This tournament marked also the first time since 1973 Wimbledon that two lucky losers, Stephane Robert and Martin Klizan, played each other in the third round essentially guaranteeing that one lucky-loser would make it to the round of 16s.

Thumbs up to the Australian Open organizers who decided to give each player $1500 Australian dollars (approximately $1318) for helping with travel expenses. If there was any uncertainty on the fact that this is the players' favorite Slam tournament, this little-known fact should put it to rest. They also keep the entry to the qualifying rounds free, except for a $10 dollar fee on the last day of qualifying because it coincides with the Nickelodeon Juniors' Day.

In contrast, thumbs down ESPN program makers who actually made the viewers sit through a terrible Victoria Azarenka vs. Yvonne Meusburger first set on Friday night, while Tsonga and Gilles Simon, and Donald Young and Kei Nishikori were playing terrific first sets on their courts. Just to put things into perspective, Azarenka and Meusburger had as many unforced errors at 4-1 in the first set (8 each) as Simon and Tsonga did at 6-6 going into the tiebreaker.

It took that type of math for ESPN to realize that maybe it would be better to switch to Simon and Tsonga when they entered the tiebreaker. While it's true that the viewer can go online to ESPN3 and watch all the show courts, or DirecTV customers can see them on five different channels, the genii at ESPN should understand that most of America still watches TV to follow the Australian Open, and that the best possible match should be televised at a given time.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 7:54 PM | Comments (0)

January 21, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

Five Quick Hits

* Peyton Manning has a 3-1 record in Conference Championship Games. Most of his postseason "chokes" have come on the road against better teams (2-5), or after a first-round bye (2-4). Tony Dungy always rested his starters in Week 17, and after two weeks off, I think a lot of the Colts' losses were about rhythm.

* The Bronco offense gained 507 yards on Sunday, the most New England had allowed all season.

* Denver's success on defense, I think, exposed just how poor the Colts' strategy was last week. Faced with bad weather and questionable receivers, the Patriots wanted to run the ball, but the Colts just wanted to make sure Tom Brady didn't beat them.

* Some people will knock New England for not committing to the run game that was so successful last week, but it's tough to keep running when you're down 10 at halftime and averaging two yards a carry. The Broncos have a much better run defense than Indianapolis.

* Congratulations to this year's finalists for the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award: Thomas Davis, Jay Feely, and Charles Tillman. I didn't realize Feely was still in the league.

***

Richard Sherman and Michael Crabtree both acted petty and childish after Seattle's win on Sunday. They're good players, but they need to grow up. I'm pretty tired of the NFC West's jaw-after-every-play style, to the point that I'm ready for Roger Goodell to go all No-Fun-League on the situation and start calling more penalties, maybe even issuing fines for unsportsmanlike conduct.

I know some people love it, but most fans prefer to keep the NFL and WWE separate. Behavior like Sherman's is distasteful and unsportsmanlike. I get that he's fired up, but he can channel that without going into 'roid rage mode. I've never seen a more intense competitor than Tom Brady, and he doesn't talk to his opponents like that. No one shows more energy on the field than Troy Polamalu, and he conducts himself like an adult. Adrian Peterson doesn't get up after every run trying to prove he's tough. J.J. Watt doesn't get into Twitter wars with his division rivals.

I agree with Richard Sherman: he is the best cornerback in the NFL. I actually named him Defensive Player of the Year. He shuts down his man and doesn't see a lot of passes, but he still led the league in interceptions, and he's a hard-hitting tackler. With so much game, he should let his play do more of the talking.

Conference Championship Roundups

Denver Broncos 26, New England Patriots 16

Most people I talked to this week were rooting for the Broncos, but this was sort of a disappointing game. It wasn't particularly dramatic, with Denver leading 23-3 in the fourth quarter and controlling the game even when the score was close. And injuries seemed to play a major role, with both teams missing key players and New England losing Pro Bowl cornerback Aqib Talib in the first quarter. Plus, after all the Brady/Manning hype over the past week, Tom Brady didn't play a good game.

Brady's stats were pretty solid — 277 yards, 93.9 passer rating — but he repeatedly missed open receivers, enough that Dan Marino noted it: "He just didn't have it, had a lot of balls overthrown." While the language may not be very scientific, I think Marino's right: Brady just didn't have it on Sunday. Maybe he was held back by his no-name receiving corps, or Denver's defense, or maybe it was just a bad day. But whatever the reason, it was a bad day.

The only time Brady really excelled was on New England's final drive, when the Broncos played prevent defense, usually with a three-man pass rush. On his TD run, Denver actually used a two-man rush. Brady went 5-of-6 for 55 yards on that drive. In the end, though, this was an easy win for a Denver team that looks championship-ready. The Broncos had eight offensive possessions against New England. They gained at least one first down every time, and scored on six of the first seven, letting the clock run out on the final drive. The Patriots, in contrast, gained only 9 first downs and 3 points in the first three quarters. Knowshon Moreno left the game with a chest injury, and his status for the Super Bowl is not yet clear, but it didn't appear too serious.

Seattle Seahawks 23, San Francisco 49ers 17

After San Francisco benefited from some shaky officiating last week against Carolina, it was on the other side this weekend. Fortunately, the most egregious miss, NaVorro Bowman's fumble recovery, became a moot point when Seattle turned the ball over on downs one play later.

Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick combined for just 49 pass attempts, with fewer completions and yards than Peyton Manning. They totaled 2 TDs, 2 INTs, and 6 sacks. In the first half, Kaepernick went 3-of-5 for 17 yards. He did rush 11 times for 130 yards, including a career-long 58-yarder that was also the longest run allowed by Seattle this season. Kaepernick's two highest rushing totals both came in the postseason, against the Seahawks and Packers.

As effective as he was running, Kaepernick was equally ineffective as a passer. He netted only 147 yards, with 2 interceptions, a sack-fumble, and a 56.4 rating. His three fourth-quarter turnovers were the most obvious difference in the game. Turnovers are always critical, but even more so in a defensive struggle. The Niners had scored in each of the previous three quarters, but in the fourth Seattle outscored them 10-0 and turned a 4-point deficit into a 6-point victory.

Kaepernick threw multiple interceptions only twice this season — in the two games at Seattle. He also threw an interception in the 49ers' home win against the Seahawks, meaning 6 of his 11 picks, more than half, were thrown against this one team. On the other side of the ball, FOX reported that Marshawn Lynch's 40-yard TD was the longest allowed by San Francisco in the Jim Harbaugh era, the last three years. That's hard to believe. Lynch rushed for 109 yards, the most allowed by the Niners all season. In the Harbaugh era, they've allowed a 100-yard rusher only six times — four of them to Lynch.

More trivia: both teams gained exactly 308 yards of offense in this game.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
East Rutherford, New Jersey
February 2, 2014

There are a number of angles for this game: offense vs. defense, old-school pocket passer vs. young running QB, finesse vs. physical (though this is overstated), and everything related to an outdoor, cold-weather Super Bowl. I maintain the game should rotate through all 32 stadiums. It's crazy we've never had a Super Bowl at Lambeau Field. This is also the first time both conference's top seeds have made the Super Bowl since the 2009-10 season, when the Saints faced the Colts in Peyton Manning's last SB appearance.

But the most dominant storyline is likely to be Manning himself. Everyone recognizes Manning as one of the greatest players in history, but there's a sense in the media — and therefore among most fans — that if the Broncos win this game, Manning is the best QB ever, and if they lose, he's not even in the discussion. That's obviously crazy, but it certainly adds some drama to the game, because in many people's minds, Peyton is playing for his legacy.

DENVER ON OFFENSE

This should be fun: the NFL's best offense (1st in points and yards) against the NFL's best defense (1st in points and yards). Denver's offense set records this year, including the single-season scoring record, the first team ever to score 600 points in the regular season. Seattle's defense wasn't historic like that, but it was the best the NFL has seen in several years, probably since the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers, a Super Bowl champion.

This is not a great matchup for Denver. The Broncos, with their historic passing offense, would have been much better off against the 49ers, whose specialty is run defense, than against the Seahawks, with by far the NFL's best pass defense. Seattle led the league in fewest passing yards (2,752), most interceptions (28), and lowest passer rating allowed (63.4, lower than Terrelle Pryor or Geno Smith). In all three categories, the Seahawks led by a lot. They don't just have the best pass defense, they have by far the best.

Contrary to reputation, the Broncos do run the ball. They ranked 11th in rush attempts, 4th if you exclude carries by the QB. Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball both rushed for over 500 yards, and both should expect a heavy workload on Super Bowl Sunday. Moreno, so dynamic as both a ball-carrier and a receiver, will be key.

Denver's success formula is fairly simple. Step one is to establish the run, as its own weapon and to open play-action opportunities for Manning. Step two is to limit the pass rush, which the Broncos did so successfully against New England. Step three is to avoid negative plays. Denver can probably survive one turnover, but not two. The Seahawks will be willing to allow some runs if they can frustrate Manning. Pressure him, make him uncomfortable in the pocket, take away the deep ball, and force a couple of turnovers.

SEATTLE ON OFFENSE

Regardless of the midseason hype for Russell Wilson as an MVP candidate, the Seahawk offense rests on Marshawn Lynch. He rushed for over 100 yards in both of Seattle's playoff wins, and if the Broncos can hold him under triple-digits, they'll have a good chance to win. We saw on Sunday what Denver did to New England's rushing attack (which got more yards from its RBs than Seattle's did, and devastated Indianapolis in the playoffs). If I'm Jack Del Rio, I'll take my chances with Golden Tate and Jermaine Kearse; my focus is to contain Lynch and keep Russell Wilson in the pocket. Allowing long runs to opposing QBs is demoralizing, and it can get your defenders overthinking on subsequent plays.

So if I'm Darrell Bevell, that's exactly what I want to do. I want to get Wilson running early, either with options and designed runs, or roll-outs that put him in space and give him a run/throw option. I wouldn't run Lynch into the ground in the first half, but I make sure he's touching the ball on every series, and if he gets hot, I stick with him.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Both teams have excellent kickers and good punters. If you were going to identify a wild card, it has to be Denver return man Trindon Holliday. He's an explosive returner, with six return TDs in the last two years (including two against Baltimore in last year's playoffs). He also fumbled 10 times the last two years. If there's a big play to be found on special teams, it could easily be a long return or fumble by Holliday. Going in, there's not a clear advantage for either team.

THE FORECAST

Three weeks ago, I predicted Seahawks over Broncos in the Super Bowl. But on Sunday, Denver won easily, while Seattle really struggled to get past the 49ers. The Niners are better than the Patriots, but it's tough to shake the last thing you saw, and last time we saw these teams, the Broncos looked like championship material. The Seahawks just looked like a good team. We also tend, as fans, to underrate defense, which is what Seattle does best.

The Broncos haven't faced a defense like Seattle's. The Seahawks haven't faced an offense like Denver's. In fact, Pete Carroll has never coached against Peyton Manning, and most of his players have never faced Manning. This game has no obvious favorite; as of this writing, Denver is favored by 1½. A big play on special teams or a bad decision in the red zone could easily be the difference in the game.

If the Broncos win, it will be with sound defense, mistake-free play from Manning, and major contributions from the running backs. They'll hold Lynch under 100 rushing yards and Wilson under 50. Manning will have a clean pocket, and very few sacks or interceptions, maybe none. He'll hit a couple of big plays, but Moreno and Ball will move the chains and keep Seattle honest. Yards after catch play a major role. John Fox will resist his conservative instincts and make the most of red zone opportunities.

If the Seahawks win, they'll feature aggressive defense, a big day from Lynch, and impact plays from Wilson. He'll break a couple long runs, or hit a few deep passes, and Lynch will have one of those "Beastquake" rushes. The defense will contain Bronco RBs and harass Manning all game, keeping him uncomfortable in the pocket and capitalizing on turnover opportunities.

Manning is a rhythm passer, so the extra week and the media could throw him off, but I think this is his year, and Denver's. The Broncos win, 23-20. Moreno is the hero, but Manning wins his second Super Bowl MVP.

As usual, a link to last week's article: divisional round analysis and championship game predictions. I'm 7-3 so far this season. I went 7-4 both of the last two years, so you might want to bet on Seattle.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:57 PM | Comments (0)

January 20, 2014

David Stern, Model Commissioner

In the next two weeks, NBA Commissioner David Stern will step down after 30 years in that position. Such milestones often spur nebulous discussions of legacy, as if a person's work can definitively be reduced to a single moment of significance.

However, if Stern's legacy includes one thing, it is the curiosity that a league commissioner has a legacy at all.

Through three decades, Stern drew notoriety through his outsized personality, a part he seemed to relish at times. But this was more than just the whim of a narcissist or lack of self-control of a helpless theatric. This was pure strategy.

The greatest service Stern provided to the NBA was acting as a lightening rod to draw heat away from the individual owners. In theory, our professional sports leagues are separate entities that grant franchise status to their member teams. But unlike typical franchises where a dollar spent at the Burger King down the street doesn't help my Burger King much, teams in the NBA and other leagues need to beat their fellow franchisees while keeping them in the game.

Sure, the NBA would love to see the New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Boston teams dominate. But those teams need competition, viable competition, to keep the public interested.

When Cavs owner Dan Gilbert protested the Chris Paul trade to the Lakers two years ago, he cited the Globetrotters/Generals relationship. Gilbert's example is comically extreme hyperbole of predetermination, but his point is valid.

In his commissionership, Stern was able to sell a product played mostly by African American players to mostly white ticket-holders in less cosmopolitan cities. But more than that, he managed to make all of the stakeholders in those teams believe they were as much a part of the league as their bluer-blooded competitors.

At times, a figurehead will appear self-promoting or vain. I won't argue those traits were complete fabrications of Stern's post. But through his willingness to take a visible and vocal lead on issues like free agency, labor negotiation, and the rookie age limit, Stern managed the balancing act of serving a pool of owners whose defined goal is to beat each other up.

In fact, Stern's most public and vehement discussions often surrounded conspiracy theories surrounding rigged Draft Lottery scenarios, ranging from the Patrick Ewing-Frozen Envelope theory to whatever commandeering of the ping pong balls the public would believe today. Always direct and occasionally vitriolic, Stern was never playful about refuting the notion that some franchises held places of higher esteem within the league than others.

Stern's relatively low-key departure from his role strikes an especially graceful chord when compared to news of MLB Commissioner Bud Selig's wildly delusional or hysterically self-centered 30-city victory lap (take your pick, though each angle is equally unflattering).

Through the years, Selig has pleaded helplessness in his failure to promptly address PEDs, revenue disparities, and the waning popularity of his sport. My lasting image of him will always be his furrowed brown of confusion at the 2002 All-Star Game (in his home park in Milwaukee!) as the managers and umpires explained why they hadn't rationed their pitchers in case of extra innings. Selig always struck me like a parent whose unsupervised child just destroyed a museum piece, desperately trying to find a satisfying solution to a problem he should have thwarted through anticipation.

Stern, on the other hand, has made it his job to know the layout of the room and which artifacts his troublemaker would be drawn to. There are dozens, probably more, individuals qualified to dole out punishment and clean up messes in the sports world after the fact. The real skill is in never having to use that power.

Current Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver will succeed Stern next month. According to many reports, Silver wants to explore unique ideas and embrace the changing economic landscape sports leagues face today. This would be a welcome shift in the NBA's agenda.

And yet, every commissioner going forward must remember the role Stern crafted. Sometimes a punching bag, sometimes a mouthpiece, being the commissioner of a sports league means preserving unity and the facade of open competition above all else.

But a little personality doesn't hurt.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 12:22 PM | Comments (0)

January 17, 2014

The Hall of Fame, the BBWAA, and the Steroid Era

Author's note: my colleague Jeff Kallman wrote a fine piece on the recent Hall of Fame elections and the state of the BBWAA and the election process. My approach here is different, but I agree with Jeff on nearly everything and I'd encourage you to read his column.

If you care at all about the Baseball Hall of Fame, the election results released last week made you somewhat happy. On the most stacked ballot in 70 years or so, three players reached the 75% threshold for induction: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas. If you're an anti-PED crusader or a "small Hall" fan, you were glad to see so few players selected, while stars like Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, and Curt Schilling — not to mention Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens — were left out. And if you're a sabermetrician, a younger fan, or a "big Hall" advocate, you're just glad Maddux wasn't the only one elected.

Of course, both groups have their disappointments. Many of the Baby Boomers are bummed about Thomas, a DH for most of his career, getting in. And even though Thomas was among the most vocal critics of steroid use, and an early advocate for testing, because he was a big, strong guy who hit 500 home runs in the '90s and '00s, there are probably people who suspect him of PED use. For some reason, a lot of these voters also latched onto Jack Morris as the one candidate who represented their position, and Morris just fell off the ballot, after 15 years without reaching 75%.

If the small-Hall crowd had to deal with a disappointment or two, though, the folks on the other side of the argument are dealing with some kind of devastation. I'm in that group, and my problem is this: none of the players I grew up with are getting into the Hall of Fame.

I've always had a great appreciation for sports history. I grew up on stories of Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle, Johnny Unitas and Jim Brown, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell. I got baseball books for my birthday, read them and re-read them. Growing up, I had a sense for who the best active players were, but I always had one foot in the past. One year, I stopped watching the Super Bowl at halftime to go read about previous Super Bowls. My grandfather used to take me to football games. We'd buy a program outside, and he'd sneak in a bag of peanuts for me. The games didn't always hold my attention, so I devoured those programs (metaphorically; I did eat the peanuts). My favorite page was the one in back, listing all the team record holders. Those guys were the measuring stick, and when one of the records fell, it was always a big deal to me.

I can live in the moment like any sports fan, but I have always approached the games with an eye to history: "They'll talk about that when he's inducted into the Hall of Fame." If I had known, growing up, that most of the great players in MLB would never make the Hall of Fame, I would have been devastated. I probably would have stopped following the sport.

Cooperstown is a museum, a celebration of baseball history. And as it stands now, there's a 20-year period of history that the BBWAA is largely ignoring. What that means — and what many of the voters, and the people associated with MLB and the Hall itself, seem not to understand — is that there's a generation of baseball fans that the BBWAA and the Hall of Fame are ignoring. I'm in my 30s. By the time I understood baseball well enough to appreciate it, Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn and Rickey Henderson and Cal Ripken had already had their best years. When I think of the best players I've seen, that list effectively begins around the same time as the Steroid Era.

Along with Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez are the two best everyday players I've ever seen. I don't like Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez, and I hate steroids, but those were the dominant players. My friends and I used to argue about whether Rafael Palmeiro was a Hall of Famer. He was never the best player in baseball, and he was never really close, but he was very good every year, and he had those great stats. That argument isn't much fun any more.

Even apart from steroids, the players of this generation aren't having much luck with BBWAA voters. No one (other than witch hunter Jeff Pearlman) believes Craig Biggio used PEDs, but Biggio came up an agonizing two votes shy (74.8%) of election this week, his second year on the ballot. Biggio was a Gold Glove second baseman, who at various times led the NL in runs, doubles, stolen bases, and HBP. He had 3,060 hits, over 1,000 of them for extra bases. Excepting Palmeiro, Biggio is the first member of the 3,000-Hit Club since Paul Waner in 1952 not to be elected within his first two years of eligibility. And Biggio's not a weak 3,000-hits guy. He wasn't a first baseman or designated hitter, he was a good fielder at a key defensive position. He walked (1160 BB, .363 OBP), hit for some power (almost 300 home runs, fifth all-time in doubles), and was a good base-runner (414 SB, 77.0%).

Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza have even stronger cases than Biggio, but they've been voted down largely on unsubstantiated suspicions about steroid use. They've never admitted use, never tested positive, never been linked to a clinic or trainer that provided steroids, never been accused by Jose Canseco, or named in the Mitchell Report or the leaked list of players who tested positive in 2003. There is no meaningful evidence against either one, and both should have been slam-dunk, first-ballot HOFers. Some BBWAA voters have actually admitted they won't vote for anyone who played in the late '90s and early '00s.

As someone whose formative experiences with baseball came precisely during those years, you're basically telling me my experience as a fan doesn't matter. And you're saying that to millions of fans, disenfranchising us from a game we love. All we want is for our heroes to be honored the same way as yours.

I personally believe we should try to evaluate PED users, that players who were great before they used PEDs or who excelled at the very highest level should still go in, while borderline cases like Rafael Palmeiro and Andy Pettitte drop off. Reasonable people can disagree with that position, but every fair-minded person acknowledges that there has to be some minimum standard of evidence against players who might be excluded from Cooperstown on the basis of performance-enhancers. The burden of proof lies with the accuser, to provide reasonable evidence of guilt, and not with the accused, who should be presumed innocent except in the face of evidence to the contrary. You can't accuse a professional player of something as serious as steroid use simply on a hunch, and you certainly can't apply that accusation en masse to an entire generation of ballplayers.

The result of the voters' reluctance to enshrine newer players is a ballot overcrowded with worthy candidates. This year, several voters indicated that they support Biggio for the Hall, but he didn't make their 10-man ballots. Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina are strong candidates who got only 20-30% of the vote this year, and that could drop in 2015, when Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz all become eligible. One of those guys is going to be the fifth-best pitcher on the ballot.

With voters limited to 10 names per ballot, and some of them listing only one or two players, even returning blank ballots, no one can reach the 75% threshold for election without near-unanimous agreement. If we assume everyone will support Johnson and Martinez, you've got eight spots left to divvy up among players like Bagwell, Piazza, and Biggio, Schilling, Mussina, and Smoltz, Bonds and Clemens, Tim Raines and Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, Lee Smith and Alan Trammell, and so on. Even if you won't vote for PED users, there are a dozen strong candidates

Dave Cameron at FanGraphs wrote a very good summary of the HOF divide. Fundamentally, many fans believe the voting process should be fact-driven. There's room for opinion, of course; there's a ton of room for opinion; opinion is essential to the process. But that opinion falls within the walls of logic and fact. Reasonable people can disagree about how great was great enough, about the importance of postseason performance, how to approach known PED users, and so on. Was Frank Thomas better than Jeff Bagwell? Who was best among the pitching trio of Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, and Curt Schilling? Did Jeff Kent meet a Hall of Fame standard? Those are all reasonable questions, important questions, even, for a Hall of Fame voter.

There are other positions, though, which simply are not valid. Poor Jack Morris has been used as an example so often, let's go in a different direction and say Neifi Perez was on the ballot, and someone voted for Neifi Perez. That's just not okay. People say that the voters have earned their positions, that they're being asked for their own opinions, and they can choose whoever they want. Look, anyone who votes for Perez is not qualified to cast a vote. Similarly, anyone who would vote against Greg Maddux is not qualified. Certain opinions simply are not valid: someone who says Neifi Perez was a Hall of Famer, and Greg Maddux was not, is bonkers. It's a hop, skip, and a jump from Maddux to Biggio, or Schilling, or Raines. The idea that it's acceptable for voters to return empty ballots, trying to prevent anyone from the last 20 years from reaching Cooperstown, is horrible. It's not an opinion that has merit or deserves to be respected.

Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin are in the Hall of Fame. Maddux, Glavine, and Thomas are going in. Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez will get elected, and Ken Griffey Jr. and Chipper Jones will get elected. Craig Biggio and John Smoltz will probably get in, and I suppose you could count Derek Jeter as a player from my youth; he's going in. Probably a few others will. But that's only a dozen players from a 15-year period, several degrees of magnitude below the normal rate of Hall of Fame elections. The BBWAA voters need to stop seeing themselves as guardians of the gate and start voting like they have a responsibility to induct the game's greatest players.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:35 PM | Comments (0)

January 16, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Conf. Championships

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

New England @ Denver (-4½)

The Patriots breezed into the AFC Championship Game with a 43-22 win over Indianapolis, led by 4 rushing touchdowns from LeGarrette Blount. New England will face Denver on Sunday, the third time Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have met in the AFC final.

"If Marshawn Lynch was in 'Beast' mode," Brady said, "then Blount was in 'Feast' mode. We call LeGarrette 'The Closer,' and he is to 'closing' as the Indy defense is to 'opening.' Former Patriot and exhibitionist Zeke Mowatt would call that a 'Patriot Simile.' Sure, the 'Patriot Missile' incident has defined the careers of Mowatt and Boston Herald reporter Lisa Olson, but luckily, they can laugh about it now. Heck, Olson calls the incident a real 'knee slapper.'"

"We relish the role of underdogs against the Broncos. 4½ points is nothing. We spotted the Broncos 24 before storming back to win 34-31 in overtime back in week 12. It was the biggest turn of events in New England since the 'Tuck Rule.' In Foxboro, the 'Tuck Rule' is called a 'miracle.' Everywhere else, its known by its real name, 'fumble.'"

Peyton Manning and Broncos advanced to the conference championship with a 24-17 win over the visiting Chargers. Denver raced to a 17-0 lead and survived a late Chargers rally, and the Broncos will host their sixth AFC title game.

"Last year," Manning said, "we let the Ravens have the ball back, and we paid for it. We didn't want that to happen again. It's the playoffs — you know how much I hate reliving the past.

"A lot has been made of me shouting 'Omaha!' at the line of scrimmage. It's really just some gibberish I shout before the snap count. So it has no meaning whatsoever. It would be like my little brother Eli shouting 'Canton!'

"As for the Patriots, I look forward to the challenge presented by Brady, Belichick, and the Patriots. I'll be ready. If there's one thing everyone can agree on, it's that my preparation is second to no one. I take practice very seriously. It's important to always be at your very best, because you never know when you're being secretly filmed."

What's the biggest factor in Sunday's game? Many expect the running games to decide the outcome. Rushing attacks may set the tone early, but this is Brady and Manning — their right arms will win or lose the game. The deep ball may not be there, but the x-factor could be the slot receivers, Julian Edelman for the Pats, and former Patriot Wes Welker for the Broncos. Stopping these two could be the defensive key to the game. This time, New England wants to get the drop on, and not from, Wes Welker. Likewise, the Denver defense has to keep Edelman in check.

In the end, Manning gets the ball last, and showing true nerves of steel, coolly moves the Broncos 17 yards into Matt Prater field goal range. Prater booms a 51-yard kick as time expires.

Denver wins, 30-27.

San Francisco @ Seattle (-3½)

The Seahawks, powered by 140 yards rushing and 2 scores from Marshawn Lynch, whipped the Saints 23-15, and will host the NFC title game against the 49ers. The NFC West rivals split their regular season matchups, with the home team winning each contest.

"Our fans generated an earthquake on Lynch's final touchdown run," Pete Carroll said. "I think it registered a '6.66' on the Richter Scale, because that's the number of the 'Beast.' I'm sure Aldon Smith doesn't mind an earthquake — he likes anything shaken, not stirred. His battles with alcohol are well-documented. Rumor has it that Smith got hammered on a tour of Alcatraz. He went 'on the rocks' on 'The Rock.'

"We surely don't expect any trickery from the 49ers. The Saints tried it, and look where it got them. Marques Colston set the forward pass back 10 years, and set laterals forward ten yards. I'm surprised Jimmy Graham didn't catch that errant pass — he could have added that to his league-leading number of meaningless playoff receptions.

"Defensively, we have to communicate. For us, that usually means with the other team. Richard Sherman may be the greatest trash-talker in the history of sports. He's got a voice coach, for Christ's sake. But even he doesn't talk as much as Anquan Boldin. Boldin yaps so much, his jaw might dislocate for the second time. Sherman and Boldin will be so up in each others' face, you won't be able to get a word in edgewise, or anything else, for that matter."

San Francisco shut out the Panthers in the second half and pulled away for a 23-10 win in Charlotte last week. The 49ers defense stuffed the Panthers on three red zone visits, including two goal line stands, and moved on to face the hated Seahawks in Seattle.

"Our guys knew the game plan," Jim Harbaugh said, "and executed it to perfection. I assigned them a duty, and they did it. You could say I 'tasked' them. Conversely, the Panthers were 'jobbed.' Among the questionable calls, there was a 'too many men on the field' violation that the officials missed. A call like that surely won't be missed in Seattle, because the '12th Man' isn't allowed on the field.

"We were the best defense on the field, and Colin Kaepernick was the best quarterback on the field. How about his mocking of Cam Newton's 'Superman' pose? That makes sense, because, much like Superman, Colin hasn't seen his parents in ages. Newton played well, but faltered in the second half. That has to be nerves. Much like Isaac Newton, I don't think Cam realized the gravity of the situation at first.

"The Seahawks are favored, so the pressure's on them. And I think it will get to them. The game is in Seattle, so I expect them to choke, possibly on their own vomit. We plan to go right at them and get in their faces. We're going to test them, and if they don't respond, you could say, likely for the first time this year, that they tested negative. That team puts the 'Sea' in 'pharmacy.'"

The hatred runs deep in the NFC Championship game. Harbaugh hates Carroll, the 49ers hate the Seahawks, and Lord knows, San Francisco hates earthquakes. The levels of abhorrence are great. Rappers have died in lesser West Coast rivalries. The extracurricular activities start early, culminating in an NFL first, offsetting unsportmanlike penalties at the coin toss.

Once play starts, the "trash-mouth" football is joined by "smash-mouth" football. Big hits are made, and taken. Blood is spilled, and tested for paternity. Trainers are worked to capacity. Injuries are suffered. Concussions are experienced. There's nothing "soft and cuddly" in this battle, except Percy Harvin's brain. "V" is not only for "victory," "V" is for "viscera."

But lost in all the carnage is the play of the kickers, punters Andy Lee and Jon Ryan, and kickers Phil Dawson and Steve Hauschka. Punts and long field goals keep the game tight, and the game turns on a pass interference on the 49ers with time dwindling in the fourth quarter. Harbaugh has a hissy fit, and seismic readings later confirm it as an earthquake. Russell Wilson connects with Zach Miller to set up Hauschka's short field goal.

Seattle wins, 23-22.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:12 PM | Comments (0)

Will NHL Overkill its Outdoor Game Plan?

With the entire NHL on hold during early January, the planned Winter Classic between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings was scrapped. One year later under Michigan snowfall, the game took place in all its glory before 100,000+ fans. But that's not all — this year, the NHL unveiled the Stadium Series, with outdoor games sprinkled throughout North America.

It's hard to say if there's too much of a good thing here. The Winter Classic itself drew sparkling TV ratings and earned the league a profit of $20 million while maintaining the league's presence on HBO with its popular 24/7 series. Tickets for the other stadium games have faced mixed reactions, and even the Canadian Heritage Classic didn't see the level of interest as one might think.

What's the sensible path forward here? The league is probably very aware that there's a fine balance between the Golden Goose that is the Winter Classic and overly saturating the market demand. On the other hand, pretty much every team in the league has expressed interest in hosting the Winter Classic, so the Stadium Series is like the honorable mention prize to satiate the interest. The Winter Classic isn't going anywhere, that much is sure. But the league's continuation of the Stadium Series will probably depend greatly on the performance on a pair of those games, most notably the January 29 game at Yankee Stadium between the New York Rangers and the New York Islanders and the January 26 game at Dodger Stadium between the Anaheim Ducks.

The Yankee Stadium games are a bit of an anomaly, as it's the second game in that venue. The first game sold out handily; the second faced more of an uphill battle to get tickets. In LA, tickets were notably discounted in late December to help move more volume.

What are the variables the NHL is looking at here? It may not bas obvious as you think. The litmus tests here involve:

* Can you play two games in a market?
* How will the ice hold up in a warm environment?
* How will non-traditional markets respond?
* What can ticket prices be set at in non-traditional markets?
* Will the out-of-market public care about these games?

It seems logical that the NHL will pull back on the number of outdoor games next year, but just how the whole thing is executed remains to be seen. This year's Stadium Series feels like a grand experiment, and the overall results — particularly on those four questions — will dictate what we see.

Since coming back from the 2004-05 lockout, the league has made plenty of smart decisions in maximizing revenue and creating excitement around the game. The talk of outdoor game-fatigue is prevalent enough that the league's head honchos have to be aware of it, and decisions won't be made rashly. However, there's still plenty of money to be made, so expect multiple outdoor games again next season. How many and where? We'll know more in a few weeks after Los Angeles and New York have a go at it.

Posted by Mike Chen at 10:57 AM | Comments (0)

January 15, 2014

American Bad Rap-sody

The process of realignment is usually to make conditions better for the schools that transfer their allegiances, as well as the conferences whom accept them. It's supposed to raise the awareness of a school's athletic department and, possibly, solidify the credibility of said conference. This doesn't mean that the program and its new conference will automatically, or ultimately, be a great fit. However, the perception going in is one of enhancement.

I know that this recent wave of realignment has been spurred on by football. This also leads to the assumption that the schools that aren't relevant when it comes to pigskin may get left out in the lurch. This brings me to the fate of the original Big East conference.

We all remember how the Northeast-based league had been plucked of several of its former members. Since 2004, the power football programs slowly moved on to other suitors (primarily the ACC). The basketball inside the conference shifted deck chairs, but it didn't really suffer (with four NCAA men's titles since 2003). However, this latest round of realignment meant the death knell for the league as we knew it. With the non-football schools severing ties to create a new Big East and two more schools joining the ACC, one long-time member stood alone — Connecticut.

The Huskies had been a charter member in the case where church and state actually came together. The combination of religiously-affiliated, private, and state-run worked well for a quarter-century. The league saw their own use in expanding when the football conference came into being in 1991. But as members got picked away to more lucrative paydays, UConn became the outlier. The football program wasn't good enough. The basketball success (men's AND women's) just wasn't enough. In the end, that put them on an island that the ACC, Big Ten, and new Big East couldn't bring along.

Instead, this now-proud basketball hotbed has to settle in to what is essentially the new Conference USA. Don't get me wrong. Louisville's the defending national champion ... but they're gone after this season (ACC). Rutgers' new coach (Eddie Jordan) may very well build a successful program around his NBA pedigree ... but they'll be one-and-done, too (Big Ten). Cincinnati and South Florida are familiar to the Huskies, but they're even more familiar with old foes Memphis and Tulane. Overall, I feel sorry for Connecticut's plight.

How did this come to pass? For me, it started on New Years' Eve. That was the opening night of the conference's basketball history. Louisville and Memphis recorded expected wins over UCF and USF, respectively. Then, the Huskies took the stage. They were ranked in the top 20 and on a Texas Swing that completed a long stretch away from Storrs. Kevin Ollie's team was still expected to take down unranked Houston, then unranked SMU days later. The Huskies went back home with a Texas No-Step, dropping both games and their national ranking. That's the new life for this program. Trips to upstate New York, western Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C. are replaced by those to Texas and the Mississippi Delta.

In essence, UConn basketball is left on an snowy island. They are trying to forage a new identity, not just for itself, but as the perceived bell ringer for the newly-formed American Athletic Conference. In doing so, it appears that they've taken a major hit in terms of marketability through no fault of their own.

Now, I understand that no one is crying for this outfit. Three national championships over the last 15 years has set Connecticut's program among the best in the sport. And other hoops programs that have been edged out by realignment (BYU, Hawaii) seem to have benefitted financially, if nothing else. But none of those programs has the responsibility of being the face of an infant league in this present day of sports.

So, to the "new-look" Huskies, I say "Godspeed" and "Lord Willin'." Here's to your shot at making the New School better than the Ol' one.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 7:57 PM | Comments (0)

January 14, 2014

The Silly Season's Most Intriguing Hires

The moment Florida State players ran on the field to celebrate their national title, it began.

The silly season. That crazy little time period right after the last game in which coaching changes run rampant and recruiting chases become national news. That time period in which bold new predictions are made, hope springs eternal and questions arise from all corners.

And it's been just that so far. Quite silly. Even without discussion of the new college football playoff, it's been a newsworthy first couple of weeks. There's been several coaching changes so far that have altered the landscape of next year's season already. The most intriguing hires? Those are below...

1) Wyoming: Craig Bohl (replaces Dave Christensen)

Craig Bohl is good enough to coach in one of the top conferences. He left North Dakota State with three national titles, a visit from College GameDay, several upsets over BCS level teams and putting the Bison in the minds of casual college football fans. If you can recruit kids to Fargo, ND and coach them into becoming a FCS dynasty, that makes for one impressive body of work. The fact Wyoming landed Bohl is a tremendous coup for the folks in Laramie. While there is no doubt Nebraska fans will turn their attention his way should Bo Pelini endure more drama in Lincoln, Wyoming will benefit immediately from Bohl being in charge.

2) Washington: Chris Petersen (replaces Steve Sarkisian)

Credit goes to the Huskies for finally prying Petersen out of Boise. He inherits great facilities that were renovated just a year ago and a team that's not short of talent as well. It's going to be interesting watching Petersen's recruiting over the next month (as of right now Washington has just nine commits) and it will be interesting to watch the coaching battles he'll face in the Pac-12, as there's many more than one or two tough games he'll have each year. Nevertheless, he built Boise into a household name and should make the Huskies pretty tough to handle.

3) Penn State: James Franklin (replaces Bill O'Brien)

Vanderbilt has been to six bowl games in the entire history of their football program. Franklin is responsible for half of them. He built a winner at a school that epitomized the term "cellar dweller." Franklin beat Georgia. He beat Tennessee. He beat Florida. He recruited out of his mind. If he takes that same passion and mindset to Happy Valley, he will do big things for the Nittany Lions. Franklin will ignite a campus and a fan base that's more than ready to leave the horrors of the recent past behind. And, contrary to the doubts of some writers who criticized PSU for looking at Franklin, I believe Franklin will do the best he can to run the program the right way.

4) Texas: Charlie Strong (replaces Mack Brown)

Strong is a shrewd hire for Texas, despite what Red McCombs thinks. He took a program with very little in the cupboard at Louisville and built them into winners in fairly quick time. Did he face a lot of ranked teams? No. Did he win the games he was supposed to win. Pretty much. Strong will run a clean program and keep his players focused on the tasks at hand. While Strong lacks the charisma of Mack Brown, his extremely focused football mentality should win over Longhorn fans who are tired of mediocre seasons.

What makes this hire shrewd though is that, by hiring Strong, Texas sets forth a new identity in their football program. Brown's teams were more finesse than physical and that's a big trend amongst the schools around Austin. Baylor is high octane offense. So is Tech. So is Oklahoma State. A&M offers high powered finesse with a SEC touch. Strong's philosophy: tough and physical. That should tilt a few more heads in-state towards what the Longhorns are fixing to do.

5) Southern California: Steve Sarkisian (replaces Lane Kiffin/Ed Orgeron)

This one is intriguing as USC could have gone a lot of different ways with this hire. They settled on familiarity and went with Sarkisian, who took Washington from bad to good and now has the task of turning the Trojans from good to great. While Sark should bring some immediate punch to the SC offense (despite Marquis Lee heading to the NFL), this isn't the same situation as it was once before. During the heyday of the Pete Carroll era, SC was the premier program in the city, state and conference. Now, it's facing some serious competition. Jim Mora, Jr. has UCLA on the rise and Stanford is certainly going to take its share of in-state talent as well. The conference slate will be little to no transition at all; it's the expectations that make next season one to watch for USC.

6) Louisville: Bobby Petrino (replaces Charlie Strong)

What do you know ... you can go home again. I don't think many would've thought Tom Jurich would bring the controversial Petrino back to Louisville, yet there he was, ready to grab the reins of the Cardinal program yet again. Whether you believe Petrino has changed or not, one thing rings clear: this choice sent the message that Louisville is out to win at any cost necessary. Hiring a coach with as much baggage as Petrino, some of which belonged to Louisville in the first place, says it all. Regardless, Petrino is an offensive genius and will continue the success that Louisville fans have come to expect in recent years. The one question isn't whether he will leave (he won't ... seriously).

The question will be long-term success. Petrino hasn't coached anywhere for more than four years and in both occasions, the cupboards were bare of defensive talent, causing immediate collapses at both Louisville and Arkansas. Petrino must be able to recruit aggressively to succeed in the long-term and so far, that's one area in his career that he's yet to make strides.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:04 PM | Comments (0)

January 13, 2014

NFL Divisional Weekend Wrap-Up

Five Quick Hits

* The Patriots/Colts matchup was Dan Dierdorf's final game after a 40-year career as a player and broadcaster. CBS put together a nice tribute for Dierdorf, and he was visibly touched. Happy trails, Dan.

* It's easy to read too much into stats like this, but every team to win a playoff game this year has rushed for at least 100 yards.

* This was only the third time all season that the Saints scored 15 points or fewer. Two of those three games came against the Seahawks.

* Last week, I criticized Philadelphia fans for booing injured Saints. This week, classless Denver fans booed injured Chargers. Knock it off.

* Laces out, Luke McCown!

* * *

There's been a lot of talk recently about Roger Goodell's terrible idea of expanding the playoffs to 14 teams. I oppose the proposal for several reasons:

1. We don't need any more teams in the playoffs. I have never liked the NBA/NHL model, where half the league makes the postseason. What's the point of the last four months if so many teams get in? There were people freaking out when the 2010 Seahawks made the playoffs at 7-9. Expand the field, and there are going to be more 7-9 teams. I'd rather leave out the 2013 Cardinals than include all the AFC teams that choked their way out of the playoffs in Week 17.

Going back to the 2002 realignment, seventh seeds would have a combined record of 218-166. That's a .568 winning percentage, an average record of almost exactly 9-7. Only one of those 24 teams, the 2008 Patriots with Matt Cassel at QB, had more than 10 wins. This isn't college, where two-loss teams with tough schedules or undefeated champions of weaker conferences deserve a chance to prove themselves in the tournament. An NFL team that lost seven games hasn't earned a shot at the Super Bowl.

2. We need fewer playoff flukes, not more. Underdogs and upsets are fun, but they're fun because they're unusual, and in recent years we've seen a number of 4-6 seeds advance to the Super Bowl. Cinderellas are great in the NCAA basketball tournament, but the Super Bowl is the most fun when it's the two best teams. All season, we've been looking forward to matchups like Broncos/Patriots and Seahawks/49ers. Most of us would be a lot less stoked for something like Pats/Steelers or Niners/Cardinals.

3. The schedule becomes a problem. If the league adds two more wild card games, it has to find a time to play them. We're talking about all day Saturday and Sunday, or else four straight days: Friday night, two games on Saturday, two on Sunday, plus another on Monday night. That's a lot to ask of fans. This is the second weekend in a row I've stayed home on Saturday night. If the league adds another two games, I'll watch them, but following the playoffs almost becomes a chore.

If the league really does add Friday and Monday games, a possibility that's been raised, you're looking at a three-day rest advantage for one of those teams. That's an issue as well.

4. Giving the top seed in each conference a bye is not necessarily an advantage. Goodell's idea is all about money, 100% about money, but part of the justification is providing greater advantage for the top seed in each conference, since it would become the only one with a bye. But it's not obvious that the bye is valuable.

Since realignment, teams with a first-round bye win exactly 2.5 more games in the regular season than the opponents they face in the divisional round. All things being equal, we'd expect the bye team to win 55-60% of the time. Add in home-field advantage, and they should probably win two-thirds of their divisional games, not even accounting for the advantage they get from a bye. They have actually won 28 of the 44 games (.636). That's under our projection, so it's not apparent that the bye provides any benefit in the divisional round.

In fact, those divisional upsets have become more common. Two of the first three seasons with the current playoff structure in place, the bye teams went undefeated. In the nine years since, at least one has always lost, with a collective record of just 21-15 (.583). Maybe that's a coincidence, but it seems more like a trend. Subjectively, I've seen great teams look rusty after a week or two off, teams like the 2005 Colts who started 13-0, or the 15-1 Packers in 2011, or last year's Broncos. A free pass into the divisional round is nice, but I believe it actually makes it harder for teams to advance beyond that point. Being the only team with a bye isn't necessarily a positive. Being the only team that never has to play a road game is advantage enough.

Expanding the playoffs is a bad idea, and it's not fan-friendly. It would dilute the quality of playoff football, reduce the importance of the regular season, and take too much free time at the beginning of the new year. It's a clear case of trying to fix something that isn't broken.

Divisional Roundups

Seattle Seahawks 23, New Orleans Saints 15

Late in the first half, this looked like a potential blowout. The Seahawks were up 13-0, with 1st-and-goal at the 3-yard line. They settled for a field goal, but still entered halftime with a 16-0 lead, and due to get the ball in the third quarter.

The final statistics tell a different story. New Orleans finished with huge advantages in offensive yardage (409-277) and first downs (25-13). The Seahawks punted on their first five possessions of the second half, including three three-and-outs. The Seahawks won with fourth-down stops and special teams. Seattle went 3-for-3 on field goals, New Orleans 0-for-2. The Seahawks' kickoff team forced four touchbacks, compared to one for the Saints. A bobbled snap by Thomas Morstead led to a poor punt that set up Seattle's first score. The only special teams play that really went the Saints' way was an onside kick late in the fourth quarter, but by that time the damage had been done.

Less than three minutes into the game, New Orleans DB Rafael Bush nailed Percy Harvin in the helmet, drawing a 15-yard penalty. The announcers, and Jimmy Johnson in the studio, were mighty impressed, and repeatedly commented on Bush's aggressive play, how he was sending a message to the Seahawks. The penalty turned a 4th-and-11, beyond midfield but out of field goal range, into a first down. That was a three-point penalty. In the 1982 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, Patrick Ewing was called for goaltending on North Carolina's first five shots. People commented on how intimidating Ewing was, how he took control of the lane. He gave UNC 10 points, and Georgetown lost by 1. That's how I view Bush's penalty.

I suppose I also need to discuss Jimmy Graham. Maybe Graham was sending a message, too, when he started two different fights during pregame warm-ups. I've never met Jimmy Graham, but he comes across as a remarkably self-centered player. He doesn't block, he does elaborate celebrations of his own plays, and he routinely provokes opponents. He acts like a punk, and on Saturday, Seattle treated him like a punk, holding him to a single, last-minute reception for 8 yards. You can't bark like Graham if you're not going to bite.

I wrote last week that it seemed like maybe Graham was injured. He was on the sidelines a lot, and not a difference-maker even when he was on the field. That was true again this weekend. I'll be interested to find out if there's a reason.

New England Patriots 43, Indianapolis Colts 22

The Colts allowed more than 40 points for the second game in a row. New England converted 11 of 18 third downs, rushed for 234 yards, and scored 6 rushing TDs. Some blame falls on the coaching staff. You can't fault anyone for game-planning around Tom Brady, but the Colts were clearly caught off-guard by New England's run game. And although the crew at CBS didn't want to admit it, you also have to blame Andrew Luck.

Luck himself is great about taking responsibility for his mistakes, and that's probably part of why his teammates continue to believe in him as he develops and learns the game. Against New England, Luck went 20-of-41 with a 53.0 passer rating, and threw 4 INTs. That gives him 8 postseason INTs in just three games, tied for the worst first-three-games total of the Super Bowl era. After Luck threw a pass badly behind Stanley Havili, it was intercepted on a deflection, and Greg Gumbel declared, "That just wasn't his fault," but a couple yards closer to the sideline, that's a completed pass and a nice play. On his final interception, with under 1:00 left, Dierdorf told viewers that Luck should be excused because it's a desperate situation and you've got to take some chances, plus maybe the receiver ran the wrong route. But it didn't look like a good throw, and Luck didn't play a good game.

I wish television analysts would admit this more often: good players have bad games. Good QBs make bad throws, good linemen miss blocks, Calvin Johnson drops passes, good defenders miss tackles, good punters shank kicks, and so on. Andrew Luck is a promising player who is still improving, and he played a bad game on Saturday.

It actually could have been worse, I think. Luck did connect on five long passes, 25 yards or more downfield. It briefly looked like the Patriots would get burned often enough to let Indianapolis back into the game. The smarter defensive strategy, I think, would have been to take away the deep ball and force Luck to dink-and-dunk. If he couldn't get the big chunks of yardage, had to put long drives together, I think he might have thrown five or six interceptions. Joe Gibbs and Gregg Williams used a similar strategy against Chris Simms in a 2006 wild card victory, and I'd like to see teams try it against Luck next season.

San Francisco 49ers 23, Carolina Panthers 10

I can guess this without knowing anything about you: you thought Carl Cheffers' officiating crew did a lousy job in this game. A pair of missed calls in the first half set up a 49ers touchdown, and a ridiculous roughing call in the fourth quarter turned a Niners sack into a Panthers first down.

Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is the front-runner for Coach of the Year, based largely on his transformation from a timid, conservative game manager, into Riverboat Ron, the gambler who goes for it on fourth down. Early in the game, Rivera lived up to his nickname, and it paid off. A 4th-and-goal attempt got stuffed, but pinned the 49ers deep in their own territory and set up a touchdown that gave Carolina the lead. Later in the same quarter, though, Rivera opted for a short field goal instead of another shot at the end zone from the 1-yard line. That was a missed opportunity, and maybe as much as an 11-point swing. The short-yardage play-calling was shockingly uninspired, everything up the middle. With a dynamic outside runner (DeAngelo Williams) and one of the best dual-threat QBs in history, the Panthers opted to keep everything between the tackles. I think Rivera mistakenly regarded that unsuccessful fourth-down try as a failure, and in a high-stakes game, he went back to his comfort zone: so conservative it makes your eyes hurt.

Carolina was competitive in the first half, and did some good things in the second, but by the end of the third quarter it was clear which way the wind was blowing. The Panthers had only three substantial possessions in the second half, comprising 13 minutes but producing two punts and an interception. San Francisco gained 25 rushing yards in the first half, and 101 in the second half. Whether it was the pressure of the playoffs or the chippy behavior of the 49ers, Carolina seemed to get flustered.

Denver Broncos 24, San Diego Chargers 17

This was the second game of the weekend with a successful onside kick, and the second in which the recovering team lost anyway.

Through three quarters, Denver led 17-0, and San Diego's offense was nowhere to be found. The running game was ineffective with Ryan Mathews injured, Philip Rivers kept getting sacked, and the Chargers couldn't pick up first downs, only five in those first three quarters. They came alive in the last period, with eight first downs and 17 points, but it was too little, too late.

The Broncos won time of possession by nearly 11 minutes, stifling San Diego's drives, controlling the tempo with Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball, and getting critical third-down conversions from Peyton Manning. Denver had three 10-play drives and two 9-play drives, and was in control virtually the whole game, overcoming a pair of moderately-flukey turnovers in the first half for a victory that was easier than the final score implies.

Championship Game Forecasts

None of the final four teams are surprises, and all four played in the second round of last year's playoffs. In fact, both conference championship games showcase great rivalries and preseason Super Bowl favorites. Parity my foot.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Tom Brady. Peyton Manning.

Peyton Manning. Tom Brady.

For the fourth time, they meet in the postseason. In each of their first three meetings, the home team won. The Patriots went just 4-4 on the road this year, so that leans in Denver's favor, as well. This is a regular-season rematch, with New England winning 34-31 at home in late November.

The Broncos won't fall for the same trick as the Colts. New England's receiving corps is not threatening, and Denver won't give up 200 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. But that means giving Brady room to operate, and he is always dangerous. Of course, Bill Belichick and the Patriots know Peyton Manning. They know how explosive he is, and they've demonstrated a respect that borders on fear, but they've also defended him successfully in the past, and they won this year's meeting with a massive second-half comeback.

Both offenses are very tough to defend, because they run effectively and feature all-star quarterbacks. The game will probably come down to turnovers, but I see a special teams advantage for Denver and a coaching advantage for New England. John Fox choked in last year's playoff loss to Baltimore, whereas Belichick is a great tactician. But I think the Broncos have too many offensive weapons, and the Patriots too few, and I don't like New England on the road. It's another high-scoring game, and Denver wins by a touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

This matchup is intriguing partly because of how similar the opponents are. Both teams play in the NFC West and the Pacific Time Zone. Both have head coaches hired from Pac-12 universities. Both have young, mobile QBs who threaten defenses with their legs as well as their arms. Both have strong running games and great defenses, and both play very physically, especially in the secondary. Both won playoff games last year.

Not surprisingly, both teams will enter this matchup with the same goals. They'll want to dictate with the ground game, get a couple of big plays from the quarterback, win on special teams, and make the most of red zone opportunities. This is a contest that could easily turn on the little things.

The teams split their season series. In Week 2, the Niners traveled to Seattle and lost 29-3. In Week 14, the Seahawks went to Candlestick and lost 19-17. Those numbers would lead you to expect a Seattle victory. The Seahawks have been nearly invincible at home, 16-1 over the last two years, and that includes two easy wins over the 49ers, by a combined 71-16. The stadium has set decibel records and measured as seismic activity. San Francisco has a great run defense, but Marshawn Lynch is the one RB in the league who is Niner-proof.

But the 49ers are the hottest team in the NFL. They've won seven straight, five of them by double-digits and the other two against the Seahawks and the one team to win in Seattle, the Arizona Cardinals. The Niners won more comfortably than Seattle this weekend, they've been here before, and they've got players healthy who they didn't have for the matchup in Seattle.

It's terrifying to predict against either of these teams, but they don't allow ties in the playoffs, so I'll say the home crowd prevails and Seattle wins a low-scoring nail-biter.

2014 Hall of Fame Finalists

The Pro Football Hall of Fame has announced this year's Finalists for induction. Despite missing some deserving names (Terrell Davis, Zach Thomas), it's a strong group, with more worthy candidates than the seven-person maximum. My preferences, in order:

1. Derrick Brooks — Made 11 Pro Bowls and nine all-pro squads (five first-team). He was named to the All-Decade Team of the 2000s, and wouldn't have been a crazy choice for the '90s. Brooks holds the career record for INT return yards by a linebacker, and is tied for most INT TDs.

2. Walter Jones — The best offensive tackle of the 2000s, a nine-time Pro Bowler, and — regardless of fan voting — maybe the strongest candidate for induction on this year's ballot. He and Brooks are both locks, and anyone who would vote against either is unqualified to vote.

3. Michael Strahan — I'm still astonished that he wasn't elected last year.

4. Marvin Harrison — Third all-time in receptions, fifth in receiving TDs, seventh in receiving yards, and probably the best ever at the toe-tap on the sideline or in the corner of the end zone. The only player in history with four consecutive 1,400-yard seasons, and the all-time leader in single-season receptions, 143.

5. Claude Humphrey — One of the two Senior Candidates, so he's not taking a spot from any of the other nominees. This is his second year as a Seniors nominee, and for good reason. Humphrey was a six-time Pro Bowler who starred on the defense that allowed the fewest points per game in history, the 1977 Atlanta Falcons.

6. Kevin Greene — Officially ranks third all-time in sacks (160), behind Bruce Smith and Reggie White, but first among linebackers. He had 10 seasons with double-digit sacks, twice as many as fellow finalist Charles Haley (5).

7. Will Shields — A 12-time Pro Bowler, and a key to the Chiefs' explosive offense in the early 2000s. Another player I'm surprised hasn't been inducted yet. I wish I had a spot on my ballot for Shields, but you're only allowed to vote for five "modern" candidates.

8. Morten Andersen — Andersen is the NFL's all-time leading scorer, and his record is not likely to fall any time soon. Adam Vinatieri would probably have to play five or six more seasons to catch him. Andersen was the most accurate kicker of his generation, and he set the career record (since broken) for most 50-yard field goals. He played for 26 seasons, into his late 40s, because teams could still count on him. Probably the greatest kicker in history.

9. Tim Brown — Had nine consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons and ranks among the all-time top 10 in every major receiving category. Brown made nine Pro Bowls and was a brilliant punt returner (3,320 yds, 10.2 avg, 3 TDs). He holds the rookie record for all-purpose yards (2,317) and is the oldest NFL player (35) to return a punt for a TD. He deserves to get in, and I believe he will in 2015.

10. Tony Dungy — A ground-breaking coach with a Super Bowl ring, a great coaching tree, and seven consecutive seasons at 12-4 or better. His teams often struggled in the postseason.

11. Aeneas Williams — An All-Pro cornerback with the Cardinals, and a Pro Bowl safety with the Rams. From 1994-97, Williams intercepted 27 passes, 5 of them returned for TDs.

12. John Lynch — Hard-hitting strong safety with both the Buccaneers and Broncos. Lynch was well-liked and high-profile, but I'm disappointed that he's a Finalist and fellow strong safety Rodney Harrison is not. They both deserve HOF consideration, but Harrison was the greater player.

13. Ray Guy — I believe we need more special teamers in Canton, but I'm not convinced that Guy is the right choice. The available statistics don't show him as an outstanding punter, with averages that were good but not great, and way too many touchbacks. The '70s Raiders already have an awful lot of HOFers.

14. Charles Haley — The only five-time Super Bowl winner in NFL history, but he wasn't a consistent impact player and he was a headache in the locker room. Haley was a pass-rush specialist, but he had fewer sacks (100.5) than contemporaries like Jim Jeffcoat (102.5), Trace Armstrong (106.0), Greg Townsend (109.5), Sean Jones (113.0), and Clyde Simmons (121.5). Haley was a very good player, but being on the same teams as Joe Montana and Emmitt Smith doesn't make him a Hall of Famer.

15. Andre Reed — Four Super Bowl appearances, seven Pro Bowls, fourteen 500-yard seasons. If Reed is elected to Canton, the 1990s Buffalo Bills will have twice as many Hall of Famers as the '90s Cowboys who stomped them in back-to-back Super Bowls. Reed never led the NFL in any major receiving category, and he ranks outside the career top 10 in all major receiving categories. He only had four 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

16. Jerome Bettis — Bettis is the PFHOF's Jack Morris. He's a nice guy and he was a good teammate. If all you consider is career rushing yards and Chris Berman highlights, Bettis is one of the five or 10 best RBs in history. But he had poor rushing averages, couldn't catch, didn't run-block, and wasn't a great goal-line back. People think of Bettis as a bruising short-yardage runner, but in a 13-year career, he led his own team in TDs only four times. He never led the league in rushing yards, average, or TDs, and really only had three seasons as one of the top 10 RBs in the league. In his last four seasons, Bettis rushed for 700 yards a year, with a 3.5 average. That kind of production is easily replaceable, but without those four years, he'd have just 10,876 rushing yards, and wouldn't be a Hall of Fame candidate.

17. Eddie DeBartolo — A successful owner during San Francisco's glory years, but his greatest contribution to football was signing the checks.

As usual, a link to last week's article: wild card analysis and divisional predictions.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:05 PM | Comments (0)

A-Rod Agonistes, the Final Chapter?

We could see a 2014 baseball season and maybe more without Alex Rodriguez, after all. The original 211-game suspension didn't hold up, but on Saturday independent arbitrator Fredric Horowitz imposed a ban of 162 games plus any postseason competition into which the Yankees enter. As no few observers have noted already, that'll be an easier jump to justify than a 211-game jump, the thinking being that losing a season is more defensible on appeal than losing an unprecedented season and a third.

Rodriguez does have the right to reach for a federal court injunction putting Horowitz's ruling on hold while the case is considered yet again, and he's very likely to do just that. The suspension allows him to attend spring training, even as the Yankees have been itching to rid themselves of his albatross, and they may yet find a way to keep him out without triggering any further of his contemporary taste for litigation.

A-Rod has claimed baseball government's been witch-hunting him. Baseball government counters a) that it had and presented evidence enough that his use or association with actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances long since banned from the game went further than what he's admitted to using in his Texas seasons; and, b) that he acted in such patterns as to equal obstructing the game's probe into the Biogenesis mess.

Rodriguez refused to testify in the hearings before Horowitz. Horowitz sent him ballistic when the arbitrator ruled commissioner Bud Selig wasn't required to testify. Both sides seemed bent on turning the hearings into a comedy of errors; enough people watching noted assorted witnesses called the hearings contentious at minimum. But they also noted none of the other 12 among the Biogenesis 13, the players bagged and gagged right after Rodriguez's bomb was dropped, were men inclined toward the scorched-earth defense. Not even Ryan Braun, once the biggest catch in the Biogenesis school.

Most likely it's career over if A-Rod takes the suspension to court and loses, left to serve it out all the way. The blood between A-Rod and the Yankees is too poisonous to even think the Empire Emeritus would avoid any way or means of saying goodbye when the suspension finishes. Though there could be a baseball pigeon somewhere who'd be willing to gamble on what will be a 39-year-old infielder returning from a year's inactivity on top of his history of two hip surgeries the second of which has A-Rod also suing the Yankee team doctors.

For reasons on which I can't quite place a fingertip, from almost the moment it looked as though Rodriguez would be bagged, I couldn't stop thinking back to what I think was perhaps the single most pivotal hour in his baseball life. The hour in which his childhood aspiration went from possibility to disappearance in one foolish moment that may not have been of his own making. The hour in which he had no more hope of becoming what he'd wanted to be since boyhood.

A Met.

When he entered his first free agency after 2000, considered baseball's best all-around shortstop, possibly ever, Rodriguez would have seemed to have suitors aplenty. In his heart of hearts, though, the Mets were the suitors whose romancing he craved most. He grew up in New York, in the Dominican, and then in Florida a die-hard Met fan (his favorite player was Keith Hernandez), even though he played Little League baseball for a team known as the Miami Yankees. Putting him in a Met uniform for 2001 and beyond wouldn't have left you room enough to contain his happiness.

The Mets could have had him for 10 years and two-thirds the money he got in due course, even though actual dollars weren't disclosed prior to any signing. They were coming off a 2000 World Series loss to the Yankees in five games that were tighter than the set's shortness suggests now. And the Mets would have loved nothing better than suiting up the one shortstop in baseball who could out-play Series MVP/Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter with one hand missing and one foot in a lead shoe.

At that December's winter meetings, the Mets' then general manager Steve Phillips went to agent Scott Boras's suite believing he had nothing less than Alex Rodriguez on his hook for extremely delicious bait. He came out of the suite with his stomach having gone absent without leave.

For Boras greeted Phillips with a rundown of perks for his client that, as ESPN'S Ian O'Connor would remember, "would have made the world's biggest divas blush": reportedly, a private office at Shea Stadium, his own marketing staff, his own merchandise tent at spring training, a luxury box, the use of a private jet, and A-Rod's peanut butter-toned phiz on more New York area billboards than those displaying Derek Jeter's mug.

Whether Boras sketched the list based on things Rodriguez suggested, or whether the uber-agent forged it on his own entirely, may never be known for certain. But it killed the Mets deal in the crib. As former Met executive Jim Duquette told O'Connor, "I remember Steve coming back to our suite and telling everyone, 'You're not going to believe it, but this is what Boras wants for Alex Rodriguez.' All of our jaws just dropped. We kept hearing how this was the place Alex wanted to play, but we knew then it wasn't going to happen."

Busting their budget a bit merely to sign the best shortstop in baseball was one thing, but the Mets weren't about to bust it that wide open for a laundry list like that, even if Boras is said to have insisted they didn't have to grant the entire list, just enough to guarantee his man becoming a Met. With the best intentions, Phillips turned Boras down. Accepting that he'd never be able to make Rodriguez's childhood dream come true, the GM then phrased it to the press in words he'd live to regret. He told reporters the Mets wanted to avoid a 24-man plus one roster.

"That label stuck to Alex, and I didn't mean for that to happen," Phillips would tell O'Connor. "But I just thought the rules had to be the same for everybody. Mike Piazza was the most low-maintenance superstar there was, with no entourage, only his brother and dad coming around once in a while. Mike always had the prettiest girl waiting for him after the game, and that was it. It was just Mike." He went on to say, "I've looked at what some teams have done for players and yet still managed to win, and it's made me question my inflexibility on structure."

At the same time, Jeter was haggling over a new Yankee deal. And there was nobody in baseball then to whom A-Rod felt closer. The two had been BFF since arriving in the Show. They were so tight, in fact, that during one game in which the Yankees and the Mariners had a little on-field skirmish, Jeter and Rodriguez just grabbed each other's jerseys and kidded each other, which led to a Yankee outfielder named Chad Curtis challenging Jeter on it after the game. "Blood brothers," was how A-Rod himself described their friendship.

Except that as soon as A-Rod signed his precedent-busting deal with the Rangers, he commented on his bro's contract haggle in a then-infamous Esquire article: "Jeter's been blessed with great talent around him; he's never had to lead. He can just go and play and have fun. He hits second—that's totally different than third or fourth in a lineup. You go into New York, you wanna stop Bernie [Williams] and [Paul] O'Neill. You never say, 'Don't let Derek beat you.' He's never your concern."

The moment he saw it in print, Rodriguez knew he was in big trouble with his BFF. There's a right and a wrong way to tell someone you think Jeter's just one of a pack of leadership-quality Yankees and doesn't have to take the whole thing upon himself, pressuring himself, which is probably what Rodriguez was trying to say. He's said to have high-tailed it to Jeter's Tampa spread post haste to straighten it out. If you don't know it yet, know this much now about Derek Jeter. The man has one thing in common with Joe DiMaggio at least: if he thinks you did him dirty even once, you're out, that's it, say goodnight, Gracie.

You wonder now about the real impact all that had on A-Rod. You wonder how his own agent botching a deal with the team of his dreams ate away at him. You wonder how deeply costing himself his best friend in baseball haunted him. You wonder what that cost him in a time when Jeter could have given Rodriguez critical moral support and steerage, when — slapped hard across the face with the reality of his off-the-chart deal, and the expectations attached to it, actual or suggestive — Rodriguez instead drove himself toward the netherworld of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances, out of a quiet desperation to live up to his deal that equaled not trusting the talent that put him in position for the deal in the first place.

It wasn't even close to his fault the Rangers finished dead last in the American League West while A-Rod manned shortstop. He wasn't the one who thought the Rangers could solve their chronic pitching troubles of the time by spending the equivalent of a well-developed/well-built pitching staff on ... a shortstop. It wasn't his responsibility to address those troubles. But you wonder if anyone bothered telling him it wasn't even close to his fault. Even if you acknowledge the Rangers bid against themselves to give one shortstop the money that would have built a long-term competitive pitching staff, you can't lay that kind of responsibility upon his head.

By the end of the 2003 postseason, of course, Rodriguez would be on his way to Yankee pinstripes after an aborted trade to the Red Sox. On his way to a locker room over which his erstwhile best friend presided. On his way to an up and down relationship with Jeter to come but nothing remotely resembling their former tightness, even after A-Rod agreed to take third base to leave his old friend where he was. On his way to firing Boras, three years after the embarrassment of the 2007 contract opt-out (during the World Series, which featured Red Sox fans chanting "Don't sign A-Rod," as if the triumphant Olde Towne Team was that crazy), after which he reportedly negotiated his own new Yankee deal.

Three years after that embarrassment, and ten years too late to make Rodriguez what he probably should have been in the first place. A Met. Without blowing his most valued friendship and, perhaps, his most valuable moral compass. Without standing as he does now and too often has since becoming a Yankee. Almost alone, in the place where insecurity married to hubris equals abject disaster, for himself, his legacy (what's left of it), and for the game he professes to love.

It's a place into which the Yankees at least and baseball at most no longer wish to be drawn. They've already spent enough time under the A-Rod big top. Don't be shocked too terribly if the Yankees find a way to cut him, even if it means principal owner Hal Steinbrenner eating $67 million before letting him back anywhere near the Yankees. But it'll be easier for the Empire Emeritus to keep their own circus from being overtaken by the clown quarters than for baseball itself to clean up after A-Rod's mess.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:08 AM | Comments (0)

January 10, 2014

It's Past Time to Fix the Hall of Fame Voting

The good news on the Hall of Fame front: Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are the first teammates to go into the Hall of Fame together on their first try. They're the first teammates to go in together, period, since Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford in 1974. (Ford was elected in his second try; Mantle, his first.) They'll be the first teammates to go in with the man who managed the bulk of their careers, since Bobby Cox (along with Tony La Russa and Joe Torre) is also going in.

And, with Frank Thomas having been elected as well, we're going to see three no-questions-asked Hall of Famers entering the shrine on their first ballot, as they absolutely deserve to go.

Now, alas, the bad news, some of which may become worse before it gets better:

* Ken Gurnick turns out not to have been the only voter not to vote for Maddux, merely the most unapologetically, idiosyncratically, and idiotically conspicuous. He's one of 16 eligible Baseball Writers Association of America who failed to vote for Maddux, which surely helps put the lie to Ken Rosenthal's stubborn insistence that the incumbent Hall of Fame voting system isn't broken. Rosenthal is dead right, however, when he insists concurrently that transparency is a must, and discloses that some voting writers will publish their ballots on the association's Website.

* Anyone who says the system isn't broken when Craig Biggio (who missed in his second try by one vote), Jeff Bagwell, Curt Schilling (the very essence of a big-game pitcher), Mike Piazza, Edgar Martinez (the DH bias is going to be very hard to sustain credibly from now on, now that Thomas sailed into the Hall of Fame), and Alan Trammell (yep, I'm convinced: he does deserve the honor) still haven't gotten their due, should be made to explain why it doesn't need to be fixed.

* They should also be made to explain it in light of these men, who absolutely do belong in the Hall of Fame conversation at minimum, losing 50 votes or more between last year's and this year's ballots: Lee Smith (-101), Trammell (-72), Larry Walker (-65), Martinez (-60), Schilling (-54), and Fred McGriff (-51). I'm on the fence still with McGriff (I don't know whether he does or doesn't deserve the honor when all is said and done, though the fact that he wasn't as powerful a late-innings pressure run producer as you may remember him being is weighing heavily against him in my view), I could be convinced either way about Smith (I still have a problem with a guy whom, seemingly, his teams often as not couldn't wait to unload), and I'm convinced Walker would have a more powerful, incontrovertible case if he hadn't lost as much time as he did to injury. (The Coors Canaveral argument vaporizes the closer you look at Walker, by the way: his road numbers aren't exactly weakfish.)

But who can argue now that the ten-name ballot limit is legitimate when men like that can be losing votes that dramatically between two ballots?

* Of all the suspect candidates whose actual or alleged trucking with actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances have cost them Cooperstown plaques thus far, the saddest case of them all now has no hope other than a future Veterans Committee, on the assumption that they'd be willing to consider him. I wrote the following in 2011 and have had no reason to change my view since:

The Sad Case of Rafael Palmeiro

Even with counting stats to burn, Palmeiro was kind of the Bert Blyleven of position players: He snuck up on you when you weren't looking, until that one positive steroid test, after he finger-wagged his denial before the House Committee for the Dissemination of Great Messages to Kids (thank you again, Mr. Will), and just days after he nailed his 3,000th career base hit (he already had 500+ bombs and 1,800+ runs batted in), blew his reputation to smithereens.

The remaining problem? Palmeiro really may have turned up positive for stanozolol by way of a tainted vitamin B12 ingestion. The further problem: Palmeiro tested negative in 2003; he tested negative again almost a month after the positive that would smash his reputation, a negative test he took a fortnight before the positive was disclosed.

It gets better. Palmeiro passed a polygraph test that indicated he had offered no responses "indicative of deception." Even the House Committee for the Dissemination of Great Messages to Kids concluded there was nothing to tie Palmeiro to actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances before Palmeiro appeared before it.

As a matter of fact, the committee's then-chairman, Republican Tom Davis, has since beaten a soft but profound drum on Palmeiro's behalf. Davis will tell anyone who will listen that the committee didn't doubt Palmeiro was telling the absolute truth at the infamous hearing, and that Palmeiro just might be getting a bum rap over one mistake — a mistake that actually may not have been of Palmeiro's deliberate making.

That didn't help him reach the Hall of Fame on his first two tries. It probably won't help him for a number of years to come. But it probably will–and should–help clear his way in due course. Palmeiro will probably prove the absolute quietest superstar to make it to Cooperstown if and when he gets in. And, unlike a lot of instances of debatable wrongdoing, it actually does seem that, the closer you look at Palmeiro, the less wrong there is to see.

Something else of which you might make note: Palmeiro spent the bulk of his career playing for bad teams, or at least teams just shy of competitiveness, none of which was his fault. He was particularly lethal in the middle innings of games and very capable in late-inning pressure situations. But just what good is it when nobody else around you steps up often enough or keeps the other guys from stepping higher in those situations often enough?

Until that certain issue decimated his reputation, Rafael Palmeiro looked like he was going to be Ernie Banks without the extroverted personality — a bona-fide Hall of Famer who'd been sentenced unconscionably to performing most of his career for teams that didn't necessarily deserve him. Palmeiro actually did get to two postseasons in a 20-year career (Banks never got to one), and he performed decently enough when he got there. But those teams (the 1996-97 Orioles, who wouldn't have gotten there without him in the first place) didn't get past the League Championship Series in each instance, and it wasn't even close to his fault that they didn't.

Like Mark McGwire when he was in self-imposed exile, Palmeiro hasn't spent his life away from the game lamenting that he's baseball's wronged man. Until or unless you ask him. And, even then, he says it simply and lets it drop at that. Allowing the facts to get in the way of juicy stories simply has too strong a grip to release for a long enough time.

* Regarding at least Bagwell, Piazza, and Clemens: Innuendo isn't evidence. Show actual, tangible, incontrovertible evidence that these three had any serious, no-questions-asked truck with actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances, or shut up and give them their due.

* Want to fix the Hall of Fame voting system? Step one: the Hall of Fame itself ought to remind Ken Rosenthal that, contrary to his self-satisfied ejaculation that the BBWAA "[doesn't] need the Hall of Fame to give us more specific guidelines on how to vote," that voting for the Hall of Fame is a privilege, not a right. The Hall of Fame has every last right to determine who should be eligible for enshrinement and who should be eligible to choose, chairman Jane Forbes Clark notwithstanding.

"We're in an age where everyone does want to be heard," she says, "but we really see this as an issue that needs to be dealt with by the BBWAA . . . I don't think that in any situation one needs to react to a one-off and change an entire process." Except this hasn't been a one-off. And everyone in and around baseball knows it.

But the Hall might also acknowledge that Rosenthal is dead right when he says BBWAA members who aren't actively covering the game should be removed from the Hall of Fame voting. Not to mention that lots of people are covering the game actively who don't all write or have associations with daily newspapers or news agencies. And they're not all just schpritzing, carping bloggers.

The Hall of Fame is on the threshold of admitting its first J.G. Taylor Spink Award winner who never worked for a daily newspaper and never covered a team or a specified, specialty baseball beat. But if Roger Angell (once more around the park: he isn't baseball's Homer, Homer was ancient Greece's Roger Angell) can win a Spink Award and stand with the Cooperstown immortals, why the hell should he never have had a Hall of Fame vote?

Vin Scully has been the game's most singular announcer for most of his career with the Dodgers — he's probably been more atop the games themselves than the writers whom Rosenthal thinks should be removed from the voter roll. Why the hell should Vin Scully not have a Hall of Fame vote? Or Tim McCarver, who played and then broadcast and analyzed his own way into the Hall of Fame? Or Bob Costas? (You win, Mr. C. — I'll never again suggest you should be the Commissioner, because you don't want the job even if you're the man most qualified to hold it.) Or Tony Kubek? (He broke his own precedent: the first Hall of Fame broadcaster whose air career was on television entirely.)

Bill James is the founding father of the sabermetric revolution that has, among other things, made a (justifiable) Hall of Famer out of Bert Blyleven and forced reviews of the cases of Tim Raines, Jack Morris (who's dropping off the ballot after failing to get in this year despite Ken Gurnick's best effort), and plenty of others. Why doesn't he have a Hall of Fame vote? Why doesn't his disciple Rob Neyer? Or at least a few staffers at The Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus?

Why shouldn't Hall of Famers themselves — whose input is for the time being restricted to assorted Veterans Committee subsets — have Hall of Fame votes? (Why wouldn't you feel good about a vote from Willie Mays, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Yogi Berra, Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Ferguson Jenkins, Whitey Ford, Juan Marichal, Ryne Sandberg, or Eddie Murray, to name a few?) Why shouldn't the umpires who call the games, the executives who operate them, the men who formerly played the game even if they weren't Hall of Famers themselves, the other men who broadcast the games, the men who manage them, the scholars who have made the deep study of the game their (and a big part of the game's) life blood, have Hall of Fame votes?

James once suggested (in Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? Baseball, Cooperstown, and the Politics of Glory) that a properly-constructed Hall of Fame should be handled by five groups who would nominate and then elect candidates. The five he proposed were the media unrestricted to the BBWAA (he does not favor removing the BBWAA vote, and neither do I), the fans, the players past and present, baseball executives/professionals (the umpires would fall into this category, I should think), and baseball scholars. (Bet you didn't realize John Thorn, Ken Burns, or a lot of the Society for Baseball Research folks don't have Hall of Fame votes.)

He suggested further that the players (past, present, and minor leaguers who spent 10 years or more in the bushes) in August, fans in September (with an entry fee — he suggested $10 — and a single vote, unlike the All-Star Game mess, to ensure honest, thoughtful votes as surely as possible), the media in October, the scholars in November, and the executives/scholars at the annual winter meetings, should make their nominations to the Hall of Fame ballot. Then, a second vote by all those groups, with Hall of Famers being chosen if they're picked on four of the five ballots.

It makes sense to me. By themselves the BBWAA hasn't elected too many turkeys and the Veterans Committees have elected quite a few. But it's absolutely wrong that the BBWAA and the Veterans Committees should be the sole arbiters of who are or are not Hall of Famers.

Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas actually may have been lucky to get in on the first ballot entry they so richly earned. When you can say that about three no-questions-asked Hall of Famers, you know good and well that the incumbent voting system most certainly is broken.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:38 AM | Comments (0)

January 9, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Divisional

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

New Orleans @ Seattle (-8)

The Saints' 26-24 wild card win in Philadelphia set up a rematch with the top-seeded Seahawks, who whipped New Orleans 34-7 in week 11. Shayne Graham's 32-yard field goal as time expired gave the Saints the first road playoff win in franchise history.

"Ironically," Sean Payton said, "we sent the Eagles 'packing.' And speaking of 'baggage,' I hear DeSean Jackson wants a new contract. Chip Kelly agrees. In fact, he contacted me about putting a 'contract' on Jackson's head. I think a trade to the 49ers is an option; it's the perfect destination for a gold digger.

"We'll have to win two more times on the road to reach the Super Bowl, then win outdoors in the cold to become world champs. It seems like an unlikely scenario, but if you can put yourself in Roger Goodell's shoes, and suspend disbelief, it can be envisioned.

"I can promise we'll be more prepared to play in Seattle this time. Defensively, Rob Ryan has drawn up the perfect game plan. He's going to dial up some creative schemes. He's also going to dial up offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and tell him to score more points. The Seahawks 'toyed' with us the first time; this time, we're hoping we're able to play with them."

Seattle and New Orleans have met once before in the playoffs, back in 2010 when the Seahawks knocked off the favored Saints 41-36 in Seattle. Pete Carroll remembers that day well.

"That was my first playoff win as Seahawks' head coach," Pete Carroll said, "and it was the first time a team with a losing record won a playoff game. That's going to be a hot topic this week. That's why backup quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and punter Jon Ryan should be ready, because all the talk will be about '7' and '9.'

"Turnovers will be a big factor in this game. We led the NFL in interceptions with 28. Not only are we the 'Legion of Boom,' we're the 'Legion of Boom-erang,' because if a ball is thrown, it's often returned. Richard Sherman led all players with 8 picks, and he's not afraid to tell you. He talks so much, he's known as 'Richard Sermon.' One thing is for sure: it's much easier to silence Marshawn Lynch than Sherman."

There's rain in the forecast for Saturday in Seattle, which may make the running game even more of a factor in the game. Lynch destroyed the Saints back in 2010, and he'll be equally as devastating on Saturday, gaining the tough yards, converting third downs, and serving as an outlet for Russell Wilson. Lynch likes his Skittles, but in soggy Seattle, he'll be saying, "Taste the rain, bro.'"

Lynch rushes for 121 yards and scores twice in a performance that once again leaves not only the Saints speechless, but Lynch, as well, after he ignores reporters after the game. The Saints keep it close with balanced attack, but red zone failures cost them dearly.

Seattle wins, 27-22.

Indianapolis @ New England (-7)

The Colts overcame a 38-10 second half deficit to shock the visiting Chiefs 45-44 in a miraculous comeback at Lucas Oil Stadium. Andrew Luck threw three interceptions, but tossed four scoring passes and added a fumble recovery for a touchdown to lead the Indy charge.

"The city of Indianapolis has never seen a playoff collapse quite like that," Luck said. "At least not by the visiting team. Both defenses were atrocious. I've seen better tackling from Ben Roethlisberger in Lucas Oil Stadium. The Chiefs really let one slip away. Indeed, it was one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history. They're calling it the 'Rebuke in the Luc.'' It was also one of the greatest collapses in playoff history. In K.C., they're calling it the 'Emasculate Recession.'

"We certainly believe we can beat the Patriots. But we'll need help. That's why we signed former Patriot wide receiver Deion Branch, who was the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl XXXIX. Deion's biggest contribution may come not on the field, but in his knowledge of the New England play book. Christmas has passed, but Deion still knows that sometimes it's better to give than to receive.

"I'll have to be at my best in Foxboro. I'm sure the Pats will show me some things I haven't seen before, like the Lombardi Trophy, or talent in Trent Richardson, or a sensible explanation of the Tuck Rule, or an unlucky bounce, or a rubber inspirational bracelet that doesn't make me cry. But I'll show them something, and that's a quarterback who's fearless. Just ask the Chiefs. They know I'm 'not afraid' to make mistakes."

A win by the Patriots over the Colts would put Tom Brady is his seventh AFC Championship Game. He is 3-3 in conference title games.

"I plan to be 'over 500' after Saturday's game," Brady said. "By that, I mean we're expecting to gain at least 500 yards of offense against the Colts.

"It's hard to imagine blowing a 38-10 lead. 28-point leads don't come and go that easily, except in the Pro Bowl. But rest assured, we won't make the same mistake the Chiefs did. If the Colts dig themselves a hole, we'll bury them in it.

"There's a lot of history in the Colts/Patriots rivalry. With that comes a lot of pressure. Just ask Peyton Manning. He knows that to get over the 'hump,' you've got to get over the 'lump.' In your throat, that is. We'll see if Luck is ready for this kind of pressure."

There's no doubt that Bill Belichick is one of the NFL's greatest coaches, but is a music career on the horizon? Why, you ask? Well, because there's been a lot of "hit records" in Belichick's past, which are almost always followed by "hit plays," which often start the secretly-recorded video of an opponent's practice.

Whatever his means, Belichick will have the lowdown on Luck and the Colts. Expect the Pats to disguise defenses and try to confuse Luck. And expect the Colts to do the same with Brady. But there's a problem — there is no disguising the Indy defense. They're not that good. As the saying goes, "Even if you put lipstick on a pig, it's still a pig." And Brady likes toast with his bacon.

Brady picks apart the Colts' defense through the air, opening the door for a big day on the ground for New England's deep running back corps.

New England advances with a 40-27 win.

San Francisco @ Carolina (+1)

The 49ers ousted the Packers 23-20 on Phil Dawson's 33-yard field goal as time expired. The triumph sends San Francisco to Charlotte for a divisional round contest with the Panthers, who knocked off the 49ers in Candlestick Park 10-9 in Week 10.

"It would be an injustice if we didn't thank Ric Flair for his inspiring pre-game speech," Jim Harbaugh said. "They used to call Ric the '60 Minute Man.' Now, they call him the '60-Year-Old Man.' But he sure knows how to fire up a team. Maybe if he would have been in Cincinnati, the Bengals would have won after hearing the Nature Boy's 'Woo dey?' speech. As it was, he was here, and we walked it like he talked it.

"This team lives and dies by our linebackers. That was exactly the case with the Ravens. Not last year, but in 2001, when someone actually did 'live or die' by Ray Lewis. Only one of our linebackers, Ahmad Brooks, has been accused of murder. But only by an NFL official. However, I can assure you, Ahmad didn't murder Drew Brees; he only sacked him."

The Panthers host a playoff game for the first time since the 2008-2009 season. That game ended with a 33-14 loss to the Cardinals as Jake Delhomme committed 6 turnovers.

"That was pretty much the end for the 'Rajin' Cajun,'" Cam Newton said. "After that, the Panthers told Delhomme 'Bye you.' But that was then, this is now. I'm not Jake Delhomme. I'm Cam Newton. I react to pressure with an 'S' on my chest, not in my pants.

"For only the fourth time in franchise history, we're breaking out our all-black uniforms. They're in stark contrast to my girlfriends, who are all white. Wesley Snipes once said, 'Always bet on black.' I think bettors should take his advice and put their money on the Panthers. In Wesley's honor, they should pay the taxes should they win."

What will decide this game? Defense and quarterback play, of course. CBS' Shannon Sharpe will likely tell you the same thing in many more words, but I just allowed you to cut out the middleman. The translator, that is.

The Panthers get on the board first on a touchdown scramble from Newton, who then performs his patented "Superman" celebration. But let's be real. If there's a quarterback who can "fly," it's Colin Kaepernick. Plus, he really does have an "S" on his chest. In fact, he's got several. Kaepernick could never play receiver, because he's "covered." But he can play quarterback, and running back.

Kaepernick accounts for 298 total yards, and throws for a score in a turnover-free game. The 49ers defense returns a Newton interception for a score, and San Fran survives a frantic Carolina rally attempt.

San Francisco wins, 23-16.

San Diego @ Denver (-10)

The Chargers took down the favored Bengals 27-10 in Cincinnati last week, and will now face the Broncos for the third time this season. The two teams split in the regular season, with the visiting team winning each time.

"It appeared that Andy Dalton had a severe case of 'Jungle Fever,'" Philip Rivers said. "I'm not sure he had a temperature, but he was 'coughing up' everything.

"We rushed 40 times and passed only 16 times. It's our version of 'Martyball.' Where Marty Schottenheimer is concerned, we'll pay homage, but not salary. But don't be fooled; we plan to open up the offense against the Broncos. Their defense is prone to giving up the big play, and our offense specializes in the big play. To be clear, by 'big play,' I mean an 8-yard gain. They may call it 'Mile High Stadium,' but it becomes 'Mile Wide' when you put the Broncos' defense on it.

"All the credit should go to our coaches. Mike McCoy and his staff have implemented an innovative game plan. Trust me, they've got more 'creative' juices than former Charger Antonio Cromartie."

The top-seeded Broncos are the AFC's top seed for the second consecutive year. Last year, the Ravens stunned Denver in overtime.

"We put last year's divisional loss to the Ravens out of our heads," Peyton Manning said. "It wasn't a problem, because when it comes to the playoffs, mental blocks come easy for me.

"This may be my last chance to win another Super Bowl. You know, my first title came in 2007. So, it's been a lot like Jay Cutler's new contract extension — seven years too long. That second Super Bowl win is very important to me. I'm only comfortable with my brother Eli having one thing more than me, and that's stupidity.

"We have a lot of weapons on offense, and I plan to use them all. Wes Welker will be back after missing our last three games with a concussion. Wes has played in nine playoff games, so we're counting on his postseason experience. We just hope he remembers where he's been."

Denver wins, 34-27.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:28 PM | Comments (0)

Baseball HOF Writer Makes it About Himself

Two things I'm pretty sure I've entirely avoided writing about, or at least have not devoted a whole column to, in my 13 years at Sports Central, are Hall of Fame worthiness and steroids.

I haven't written about any HOF issues because they are way down my list of interesting sports matters at any given time, except for Pete Rose. In Pete Rose's case, betting on the Reds while he was managing them creates an environment where he could make managerial decisions based not on any sort of in-game logic, but on how to maximize his betting returns, and I support his exclusion from the Hall. This is an unpopular opinion and this is not the hill I want to die on, so I haven't written about it.

Steroids are a bit more of a nebulous topic for me. We don't have a clear idea of who used, who didn't use, when they started, and when they stopped. Its use in sports is cheating, and should be punished. But somehow, it feels like less of a subversion of sports than, say, having your lead-off hitter steal second in the ninth inning while up 13-0 because you bet that he would have two steals in the game, or whatever.

So I don't know what to do about guys like Bonds or McGwire, but this column is not about them; it's about Greg Maddux, who is perhaps the greatest pitcher of our time. He was elected into the Hall of Fame this week, but there were writers who did not vote for him.

One of those writers was Dodgers beat writer and moral guardian Ken Gurnick, who has pointed out both in print and on the radio that he doesn't know who did and did not use steroids during the 90s era when their use would seem to be the most rampant, so he's not going to vote for any of 'em.

This rationale makes me want to stand against a wall and slowly beat my head against it. First of all, for someone so concerned about justice and integrity, Gurnick should realize that "guilty until proven innocent" has nothing to do with either justice or integrity. In straining to not implicitly endorse steroid use, Gurnick has instead employed a sort of ethos that is actually more of a travesty to fairness than steroid use.

Secondly, although it goes without saying that Maddux has not had any credible steroid accusations leveled against him, it also wouldn't even make sense for Maddux to use them. He wasn't Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson out there, blowing everyone away. He was a cerebral corner-painter. Of the poorly-understood side effects of steroids, "becoming smarter and more patient" is not among any that I have read. Indeed, what has been better documented is the way steroids may make you more impetuous and short-tempered, and going into the batter's box against Maddux in an impatient and short-tempered state of mind is exactly the kind of mindset Maddux's repertoire exploited.

Finally, if Gurnick is so concerned about PED users not getting any sort of recognition to the point where he'd rather spurn non-PED users rather than open himself up to the chance of accidentally honoring a PED user, then he should quit his job. Seriously. Then he can devote time to writing a sequel to Profiles in Courage about himself.

Because PEDs are still a thing that are happening, and he knows that, and his columns occasionally praise players. These players can then tape his column to the inside of their locker door and say to themselves, "Wow, I better keep using PEDs, otherwise I'm not going to get this adoration, and the press touting me really helps during contract negotiation time!"

Gurnick said he was prepared for the criticism he knew he was going to get, and here we are. Indeed, while we are throwing accusations around, is it possible he wasn't just ready for it, but looked forward to it? Has any baseball fan outside of SoCal heard of Gurnick before this? He certainly hasn't shied away from interviews. Could it be that it's not so much that he was casting a vote against Greg Maddux, but casting a vote for Ken Gurnick?

Posted by Kevin Beane at 3:33 PM | Comments (0)

January 8, 2014

Wild Card Weekend a False Sense of Parity

Wild Card Weekend gave professional football fans everywhere a chance to extol ours as the best of the Big Four sports. Two games were decided on the final play, one featured an historic comeback, and the fourth was an upset of sorts — if there's anyone out there who could regard the Cincinnati Bengals as a favorite in the postseason. It's easy to see why so many of us prefer this weekend over any other in sports, and yet it also illuminated a widening chasm that could threaten Roger Goodell's competitive balancing act on a grander scale.

The NFL thrives on parity, an on-any-given-Sunday mantra that compels viewers to stay plugged in to every game even when one out-of-market team is beating another by four touchdowns in the third quarter. You just never know what might happen. Leveling the field to this degree requires constant fine-tuning, but the NFL has to be diligent lest it lose sight of the forest through the trees. While 345 Park Avenue does its best to increase the likelihood that any single game will come down to its final possession, 32 front offices are at work tipping the equilibrium between conferences.

It's caste warfare, with the blue-blood NFC upholding the traditional smash-mouth, mud-in-your-face style upon which the game was built, and the AFC returning to that flashy veneer it relied upon to make inroads in the NFL's fan base during the 1960s. In a copycat league in which you play among your own kind 75% of the time, the AFC has followed the lead of the Indianapolis Colts who glittered their way through Super Bowl XLI, while the NFC is hell-bent on mashing each other to the top à la the 2007 New York Giants. The dichotomy hasn't favored AFC football over the last few years, and it peaked this past season. At this pace, we could find ourselves back in a pre-Namath era where the AFC will have to once again fight for its survival.

Mind you, we're not talking financial survival. The AFC's coffers are thriving. People like up-and-down action, porous defenses that make Target's data security systems look impenetrable, and shotgun formations on 3rd-and-1. This stuff sells tickets and it sells jerseys even as it sells out to football purists. No, we're talking about competitive survival.

Arguments about the relative strength of one conference over another are always subjective. Statistics don't often back up either side. For instance, of 64 inter-conference games played this season, the NFC had a meager 34-30 edge. The AFC did pass more frequently by a 59%-58% margin, but the NFC completed 62% of those passes, the AFC 61%. NFC defenses even gave up slightly more yards (350 vs. 347) and points (23.5 vs. 23.4) per game than their AFC counterparts. There is parity on paper, but there is no parity in what my eyes tell me.

Going into last weekend's action, there were at least three NFC teams that I felt could beat the best from the AFC. That presumes the best in the AFC can even be determined. Maybe Denver? Even with Von Miller, their defense was soft and pliable, and they've been beaten by all three other AFC teams playing this weekend, so they're no lock. How about New England? In an indictment of how pedestrian this conference is, the Patriots were in contention for top seed on Week 17 despite having five key starters on injured reserve, a revolving door on the offensive line, and a list of skill position players more obscure than the lineup of your local Division III team. No matter which of the four AFC teams makes it to New York, it will be a surprise. And it won't matter.

The only new development after last weekend's action is that I've elevated the Saints, by virtue of their performance on Saturday, to a fourth team with superiority over any AFC contender. They beat Philadelphia on defense and a running game rather than by Drew Brees' arm, and that's a successful formula in January.

Nothing else changed, nor should it. The Bengals are a dial-up choke that make a habit out of advancing 9-7 opponents like San Diego to the next round. And as thrilling as it was, the Colts' 45-44 victory over the once 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs is stereotypical AFL football: 145 plays, 11 TDs, both teams over 500 total yards from scrimmage. Great theater, and I loved it for that.

But then came the Packers and 49ers, and I loved it more. You could not watch this game without appreciating how well it embodied the essence of what our football founding fathers had in mind: a minus-13 wind chill; natural sod, frozen solid and stripped of all greenness by an already brutal Wisconsin winter; quarterbacks flexing bare extremities; players snorting enough condensated breath to mask their faces. And a warm-weather team that withstood the elements to beat a team quite at home in them.

Postseason football is at its best when it's played in pain. The Ice Bowl, Brett Favre's broken thumb, Tom Coughlin's frozen face: these are all iconic images of toughness. Games where every play hurts, every yard is contested, every point a luxury quite unlike those devalued increments that rack up fast and furious on an AFC scoreboard like confetti piling on the street during a parade.

I live in an AFL-turned-AFC town and, although we're as embarrassed as any other that the New York Jets were our first ambassadors of parity, we have enjoyed the status it has since accorded us. It's a comfortable life, replete with scoring records, passing records, receiving records, even 22 Super Bowl titles in 47 years. I'm proud to say the AFC has been a co-tenant to greatness, deserving of its seat at the table across from the game's blue-bloods. But not this year. Our chair is about to be pulled out from under us, and if we're not quick to adjust, and not too stubborn to get back to the game's roots, we could find ourselves lying on the floor a spell waiting for the next Joe Willie Namath to come around.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 1:28 PM | Comments (5)

January 7, 2014

NFL 2013 Wild Card Weekend

Five Quick Hits

* It seems like every team playing this weekend struggled with timeout management. It boggles the mind that teams can make the playoffs believing a five-yard delay of game penalty is more significant than a second-half timeout. Unless you're at the goal line, or it's 3rd-and-1 or something, just take the penalty.

* At one point, Joe Buck talked about Green Bay "having" to spend a timeout. Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth spoke about the Saints being "forced" to use timeouts. It's time for us to stop using that language. Those teams chose to spend their timeouts in sub-optimal situations. Let's use language that reflects that.

* I'm releasing all my timeout rage right here, so I won't have to mention it later on. The Chiefs may have actually cost themselves the game by mismanaging timeouts, and others easily could have. Almost every team made obvious mistakes. But this is it — we're moving on with a clean slate.

* I am astounded by the self-destructive impatience of most NFL teams. Six head coaches were fired this season, five of them after three years or less. That's no way to build a team. I do like the early hires, Bill O'Brien in Houston and Lovie Smith in Tampa Bay. Those are good fits, I think.

* It seemed like his crew did a good job, but it is just inexplicable that the King of Incompetence, Jeff Triplette, was allowed to referee the Bengals/Chargers game.

* * *

I used to live in Philadelphia. I didn't grow up there, and I've never been an Eagles fan, but I like the city, and I've occasionally defended its fans. Yeah, they booed Santa, but that was 30 years ago. Phillies fans were notorious for years, but most of that is ancient history. Philadelphia fans cheered the injury that ended Michael Irvin's career, and they booed Donovan McNabb on draft day, but even those were over a decade ago. More recently, they gave standing ovations to both McNabb and Andy Reid when they returned in opposing uniforms, and that was a classy gesture. Despite their reputation, I don't believe that Philly fans are the worst in the NFL.

But I was really disappointed with the conduct of some Eagles fans this Saturday, when they repeatedly booed Saints players being treated for injuries. The Eagles run a high-paced offense, and their fans now see any defensive injury as an attempt to slow things down. Booing injured players is tasteless — more than that, it's indecent. It's not the way we as human beings should conduct ourselves. None of those injuries looked fake, and none of the players returned immediately. Parys Haralson went down eight seconds before the two-minute warning. He's obviously not trying to stop the game; it's about to stop itself. But the fans booed.

It wasn't everyone. It wasn't even half. It sounded like a pretty small portion of the crowd, but it was clearly audible, and it was classless. I know Philadelphia can do better than that.

Wild Card Roundups

Indianapolis Colts 45, Kansas City Chiefs 44

A weird game with an exciting fourth quarter, the first NFL game of the new year set a postseason record for combined offensive yardage (1,049), and it was the second-largest comeback in NFL history, with the Colts recovering from a 38-10 third quarter deficit.

All-pro running back Jamaal Charles, the Chief's most vital offensive weapon, left with a concussion early in the first quarter, but the story of the first half was Kansas City's big plays: a 63-yard completion to Dwayne Bowe, a 79-yarder for Donnie Avery, a fumble recovery by Justin Houston, Brandon Flowers intercepting Andrew Luck. Even without big plays, the Chiefs' offense was unstoppable, putting together a 14-play, 82-yard touchdown drive in the first quarter, and a 15-play, 77-yard TD drive in the second.

The Chiefs went into halftime up 31-10, only the fifth time all season they scored 31 points in a game. Here's something weird, though: it was KC's third-highest-scoring first half of the last month. The Chiefs scored 38 first-half points against Washington in Week 14, and 35 against the Raiders in Week 15.

After ending the first half with an interception, Andrew Luck threw another on the first play of the second half. Knile Davis, the backup to Jamaal Charles, scored his second TD to make it 38-10. And then the Chiefs started dropping like flies. Avery, who had the 79-yard catch, left with a concussion. So did Flowers, who had the first interception. Already missing the team MVP in Charles, they also lost Davis in the fourth quarter, forcing third-string Cyrus Gray into action. Houston, who had the fumble recovery, left with a late injury.

As the Chiefs lost players, the Colts took advantage. Consecutive touchdown drives pulled them to within two scores, 38-24. A third Luck INT set up a Kansas City field goal, but Indianapolis responded with another TD drive, closing the gap to 41-31 at the end of the third quarter. By this time, whether through adjustments by the Colts or simple attrition through injury, the Chiefs could not stop the Indy offense. Three consecutive drives, the Colts went 80 yards or more and scored a touchdown.

There are so many angles for this game: the record-breaking yardage and unexpected high score, the gigantic comeback/collapse, the injuries ... those are all interesting stories, but if I were a Chiefs fan, I think what would frustrate me most is the field goals. Ryan Succop kicked three field goals, and if the Chiefs had gone for the throat and found the end zone on any of those drives, they probably would have won. In the first quarter, KC had 4th-and-goal at the 1-yard line, and kicked a 19-yard FG instead of going for the end zone. In the fourth quarter, up 41-38, the Chiefs had 3rd-and-11 at the Colts' 30-yard line. Alex Smith completed a 5-yard pass, and Succop kicked a field goal that turned out to be meaningless. Charles, Davis, and Avery were all out at this point, which limits your options on offense, but I think you've just got to try for the first down there.

New Orleans Saints 26, Philadelphia Eagles 24

After the unexpected shootout in Indianapolis, the game we all thought would light up the scoreboard, featuring two top-10 offenses, started slowly, with a 0-0 first quarter and a 7-6 halftime. The final score was more in line with our expectations, but the way we got there was puzzling.

The Eagles kept it close although:

1. They went 3/12 on third down.

2. The Saints outrushed them by over 100 yards and outgained them by almost 200.

3. DeSean Jackson had almost no impact, with no catches in the first half.

The Saints won even though:

1. Drew Brees threw 1 TD with 2 interceptions, and Nick Foles tossed 2 TDs with no picks.

2. Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston combined for just 60 yards and no scores.

3. New Orleans went 1/4 in the red zone.

Ultimately, those balanced each other out, and we got a close game with a reasonably exciting fourth quarter. I guess the big comeback in Indianapolis downgrades a last-second game-winning field goal to "reasonably exciting."

Boomer Esiason opined on Sunday that the Saints did not target Jimmy Graham enough. Certainly it was a surprise not to see him more involved, but I wonder if he's healthy. Graham subs out a lot because he doesn't run-block, but he barely played on Saturday, and he didn't seem like himself. The Saints used Josh Hill a lot, with Graham on the sidelines. This could be something to keep an eye on in Seattle next weekend.

San Diego Chargers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 10

The Chargers punted on four of their first five possessions, including three consecutive three-and-outs in the second quarter. But they took care of the ball, played opportunistic defense, and got a season-long run 58-yard TD run from Ronnie Brown to seal the game. The real story was what Jim Nantz called "a second-half meltdown by the Cincinnati offense." After a decent first half put them up 10-7, the Bengals' seven second-half possessions produced: 3 turnovers, 2 failed fourth-down conversions, a punt, and running out of time. Disaster.

Andy Dalton played a terrible game. He passed for 334 yards and a TD, but also committed three critical turnovers. The loss dropped Dalton's postseason record to 0-3, with 1 TD and 6 INTs. I really wish we would resist definitive pronouncements about Dalton's "ability to win in the playoffs" after only three games. Ability to win in the playoffs is very much like ability to win in the regular season, and Dalton is good at that, making the postseason every year of his career. It's a foolish notion that someone who has never missed the playoffs isn't a winner. As a college player at TCU, Dalton led the Horned Frogs to two conference championships, and went 2-1 in bowl games. He was named Offensive MVP of the 2011 Rose Bowl, so let's not pretend he can't play under pressure.

Dalton's first two NFL postseason games came on the road against a good Houston Texans defense, and the Bengals were underdogs in both games. Sunday's loss to the Chargers, ending Cincinnati's perfect season at home, deserves more blame, and Dalton was the most obvious problem. But let's avoid throwing dirt on this guy's career for a little while. He's only 26, he had a good regular season, and he's gotten better each year.

Here's a list of Super Bowl-Era Hall of Fame QBs who won zero playoff games in their first three seasons as starters: Joe Namath, Bob Griese, Dan Fouts, John Elway, Steve Young, Warren Moon, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees after they're enshrined. Those players eventually combined to win eight Super Bowls, probably more by the time Manning and Brees are done. Just because Dalton had a bad game yesterday doesn't mean he won't win when he's 27, or 30, or on into the future. I don't think Dalton's a Hall of Famer, but we should all be smart enough to realize that this game wasn't some indictment of his will to win; he just had a bad game at the wrong time.

San Francisco 49ers 23, Green Bay Packers 20

The weather was very cold, low single-digits, but not nearly as bad as forecast. This was Green Bay's third loss to San Francisco in the last year, and dropped the Packers to 0-4 vs SF in the Jim Harbaugh era. The Packers went three-and-out on their first three possessions and finished the first quarter without a pass completion. They actually punted on all of their possessions in the first and third quarters.

Green Bay's offense was effective only in spurts and didn't connect on many big plays. You can't help but wonder if Aaron Rodgers was still shaking off the rust after his long recovery from a shoulder injury. The stats show Rodgers taking 4 sacks, but I feel like I remember half a dozen coverage sacks, with Rodgers holding the ball until the pass rush arrived. He has got to throw it away more often.

Meanwhile, Colin Kaepernick continued to dominate the Packers, leading all rushers with 98 yards. The Packers took away Vernon Davis, who led the Niners in TDs, and they took away Anquan Boldin, who burned them for 208 yards in Week 1, so Kaepernick turned to Michael Crabtree, targeting him as many times as Davis and Boldin combined and connecting for 8 catches and 125 yards.

Both teams struggled in the red zone (combined 3/8) and repeatedly settled for short field goals, five under 40 yards. Kaepernick made some dynamic runs, and the Niners did a fine job in pass coverage, but neither team looked like a serious Super Bowl contender on Sunday. Certainly San Francisco seemed the stronger of the two, and the close score is a little misleading.

Divisional Forecasts

Each of these games features a team from last year's divisional round, and three of the four are regular-season rematches. The Seahawks crushed the Saints, the Panthers edged San Francisco, and the Chargers and Broncos split, both winning on the road.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks won't win by 27 again, but they're not going to lose. Seattle dropped a home game in Week 16, its first home loss in two years, but there's still substantial homefield advantage, and despite their victory in Philadelphia, the Saints have struggled on the road — never more than in their Week 13 blowout loss to the Seahawks, 34-7 on Monday Night Football.

The Saints are always dangerous, and I suppose there's a possibility that Seattle could be rusty from the bye or overconfident because of the previous matchup. I just don't see it. Seahawks by 10.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

A new twist on an old rivalry, with Tom Brady and the Patriots hosting a Colts team led by second-year QB Andrew Luck. A win would make New England the first team to reach three consecutive Conference Championship Games since the 2001-04 Eagles.

This sort of thinking has gotten me in trouble before, but I start by considering that this game is in New England. The Patriots went 8-0 at home this year, and we're talking about Massachusetts outdoors in January, for a team (Indianapolis) that normally plays in a dome. Even if we want to discount the weather — the Saints won in Philadelphia, the Chargers won in Cincinnati, and the 49ers won in frigid Green Bay — there's that undefeated home record. Since Tom Brady returned in 2009, the Pats are 37-3 at home, though they're just 3-3 in the playoffs. But those losses came to outdoor teams (Ravens twice, Jets), and I have to believe the home-field advantage matters.

The Patriots win a high-scoring game by double-digits.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers

These teams met in San Francisco in Week 10, with the Panthers winning 10-9. After beating the Packers on Sunday, the 49ers repeatedly mentioned revenge.

This matchup features two dynamic QBs, Cam Newton and Kaepernick, who can win with both their arms and their legs. Both teams have excellent defense, and both entered the playoffs on a roll, with the two longest winning streaks in the NFC. The most important difference may be playoff experience. The Niners will be playing their seventh postseason game of the past three seasons, while Carolina appears in its first since 2008. Most of that '08 playoff roster is gone, while even San Francisco's new additions, like Anquan Boldin, bring playoff experience.

I just have this feeling that Carolina's not ready to win in such a big situation. Maybe that's silly after their great regular season, including impressive victories on national television, but I think San Francisco's experience pays off, and the 49ers advance, breaking Panther hearts with a 4-point victory. The Niners are the only road team favored next weekend.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

These teams have played in the same division since 1960, and they've met over 100 times, but never before in the postseason. The recent history doesn't really favor either team. In Week 10, the Broncos won 28-20, and five weeks later, the Chargers won 27-20. Peyton Manning traditionally struggles against San Diego, but that's a legacy from his Indy days.

The Bronco offense broke records this year, but the defense is missing Von Miller, who played in both previous matchups with the Chargers. All the pressure is on Denver, and on Manning in particular. It almost feels like this is his chance, his one chance to be recognized as the greatest quarterback of all time. If the Broncos can't win a Super Bowl this year, after such a great regular season and with so many weapons, that choker label — fairly or unfairly — will probably always be attached. I wonder if this postseason might not play out a little like 1997, when most fans rooted for John Elway to finally win a Super Bowl.

Manning is such a rhythm passer, and I worry that even the bye week could work against him. His best postseason years have come when the Colts had to play a wild-card matchup. His teams are 1-4 in the divisional round when they get a bye. My head says the Broncos are too good, and my heart says Manning deserves it, but my gut says the Chargers win a last-minute upset.

* * *

Finally, a Sports Central tradition, our annual All-Loser Team: an all-star team made up entirely of players whose teams missed the postseason. If this team could actually be assembled, it would beat any and every team in the playoffs.

2013 NFL All-Loser Team

QB Tony Romo, DAL
RB Matt Forte, CHI
WR Calvin Johnson, DET
WR Josh Gordon, CLE
WR Antonio Brown, PIT
TE Jason Witten, DAL
C Nick Mangold, NYJ
G Andy Levitre, TEN
G Marshal Yanda, BAL
OT Tyron Smith, DAL
OT Joe Thomas, CLE

DT Ndamukong Suh, DET
DT Haloti Ngata, BAL
DE J.J. Watt, HOU
DE Robert Quinn, STL
OLB Lavonte David, TB
OLB DeAndre Levy, DET
ILB Karlos Dansby, ARI
CB Alterraun Verner, TEN
CB Joe Haden, CLE
FS Barry Church, DAL
SS T.J. Ward, CLE

K Justin Tucker, BAL
P Brett Kern, TEN
KR Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN

Offensive Loser of the Year: Calvin Johnson, DET
Defensive Loser of the Year: J.J. Watt, HOU
Most Valuable Loser: Calvin Johnson, DET

Our actual 2013 NFL All-Pro Team was published last week, along with so-so playoff predictions.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:24 PM | Comments (0)

January 6, 2014

The Freshmen Takeover

The 2013-14 season of college basketball showcases three remarkable freshmen who are the stars of three of the best college basketball programs in the country: Jabari Parker at Duke, Julius Randle at Kentucky, and Andrew Wiggins at Kansas. This is not a new phenomenon. Plenty of teams have been led by first-year players in recent and not so recent memory.

But it is becoming a more of an annual occurrence for certain elect programs. Many of the freshman who carry the weight of their program end up in the NBA after only one season of college basketball, so one has to wonder if this trend is going to spread to other programs, and if it should be embraced or avoided.

It should be observed that not every team can currently even attempt such a philosophy. A mediocre program such as Nebraska would have trouble recruiting one top-50 recruit, much less five of them season after season. Only the best programs in the country can recruit freshmen who are good enough to lead their teams in scoring for a year and then enter the NBA draft. Those recruits are limited. Of the 30 players selected in first round of the 2013 NBA draft, six players selected were freshmen, seven were sophomores, seven were juniors, three were seniors, and seven were from international sources.

So let's look at the one program that has most embraced the trend and one program that has refused the trend and see how they have handled this trend and how well they have each succeeded.

Kentucky Wildcats

Nobody has been infected by the freshmen takeover as much as the Kentucky Wildcats. So far this season, the top four scorers for Kentucky have been freshmen. In 2012-13, the top three scorers for the Wildcats (by points per game) were freshmen. Two of those were selected in the first round of the 2013 NBA draft: Nerlens Noel and Archie Goodwin. The third, Alex Poythress, went from playing 25.8 minutes per game and averaging 11.2 points per game in 2012-13, second on the team to Goodwin, to playing 18.0 minutes per game and averaging 4.8 points per game in 2013-14, sixth best for Kentucky.

In 2011-12, the Wildcats were led in scoring by freshman Anthony Davis. Their number two and three scorers were sophomores — Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones — and their number four was also a freshman — Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The two freshmen were selected first and second overall in the 2012 draft. The sophomores also left early for the NBA. Oh, and their fifth leader scorer, Marquis Teague, was also a freshman who was drafted in the first round of the 2012 NBA draft.

In 2010-11, Kentucky was led in scoring by freshmen Brandon Knight, Jones, and Lamb. So, the roster for Kentucky could look like this: Knight, Jones, Lamb as seniors; Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Teague as juniors; with Noel and Goodwin as sophomores; and Randle and the host of other Kentucky freshmen of 2013-14. That's at least 12 hugely talented recruits in the past four years, eight of which are currently in the NBA with the other four likely soon to follow.

Without replenishing their stock of freshmen every season, Kentucky would have serious problems. The success of Kentucky over the past three seasons is enough to give pause to anybody with a good enough program to even consider the tactic of using only freshmen over and over and over again.

In 2011, the Wildcats made the Final Four, but lost to UConn in the semifinal game. In 2012, they won the National Championship. In 2013, they didn't make the NCAA tournament. In fact, they lost in the first round of the NIT to Robert Morris.

From 2012 to 2013, the Wildcats showed with complete clarity what you are dealing with when you rely entirely on recruiting freshmen for your program. It's feast or famine. You have to recruit one of the top-10 players at every position every year. And even if your recruiting goes as well as it can and you manage to recruit the best player at every position every year, if they don't gel and play well together, you are in some serious trouble. Or if one of those top players gets injured (Nerlens Noel), you are in some serious trouble.

It's a dangerous game. Kentucky is seeking to rebound from a terrible season. It seems likely they'll make the NCAA tournament in 2013-14, but can they return to the Final Four this season? How about next season with an entirely new lineup of freshmen?

I used to think that Kentucky would never be able to continue their recruiting at this pace, but truthfully, top recruits would probably be more attracted to a program like Kentucky where they can shine, competing for time only with other freshmen and upper classmen with less raw talent who have played limited minutes.

Michigan State Spartans

So the question becomes, are there certain recruits who are too good for even very successful programs to bother recruiting. Michigan State for example, hasn't had a freshman lead them in scoring in the past decade. They are a perennial competitor who has made the NCAA tournament 16 seasons in a row, including one championship and six final fours.

Are teams like Michigan State — who are built upon the previous year, year after year — intentionally avoiding certain recruits? Do elite recruits assume they won't get to be the stars right away at a school like Michigan State? Does Tom Izzo say, "I want you to play here for at least three years?"

Or are we looking at something else entirely? Are schools like Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, and North Carolina built to produce better NBA players than schools like Michigan State? The resume of NBA players coming out of Michigan State during the Tom Izzo era is not amazing. There's Zach Randolph and Jason Richardson, but no other players of serious consequence in the past 20 years.

Compare that to Kentucky with names like John Wall, Anthony Davis, and DeMarcus Cousins, all drafted in the past three years. Kentucky has created 21 current NBA players. Michigan State has created five.

Expanding this analysis to include a dozen other top programs would be interesting, but I think you'd find the top Big Ten schools would reflect the Michigan State philosophy with similar or less success. The top ACC schools, as well as Kansas, would reflect Kentucky's philosophy, though with not quite as much turnover.

Which philosophy is better? That depends on your definition of success. If you want consistency, don't recruit players who will enter the NBA after one season. If you want to produce first round draft picks and high ceiling NBA talent, recruit away!

Posted by Andrew Jones at 1:43 PM | Comments (0)

Jerry Coleman, RIP

Like Herb Score who preceded him to the Elysian Fields a little over five years ago, Jerry Coleman in the broadcast booth probably thanked God that Yogi Berra never sought a post-playing career as a baseball announcer. Upon Score's death in 2008, Coleman stood supreme as the master malapropper of the microphones from his loft as the San Diego Padres' broadcaster, even if the former second baseman scaled his working time back until this past season.

"Ozzie Smith just made another play that I've never seen anyone else make before, and I've seen him make it more often than anyone else ever has! Coleman once hollered on the air, with a flair even Score at his best found elusive. But then Coleman never quite had Score's flair for geographic displacement, even if he might have been funnier with his own: The Padres need one to tie and two to win, so going into the ninth the score is San Francisco one, the Yankees nothing."

Now Coleman is gone, having died Sunday following a short illness, and bearing as well the distinction of having been the only major league baseball player to see live combat in two wars. (Ted Williams learned to fly in World War II, but didn't see combat as he would in Korea.) He flew dive bombers in World War II; he flew in the Korean War, after discovering World War II-veteran Marine pilots hadn't been fully discharged but merely designated inactive.

He didn't mind one bit. As he said when the Padres unveiled a statue of him outside Petco Park, "Your country is bigger than baseball." (He left the Marines a lieutenant colonel with two Distinguished Flying Crosses and thirteen Air Medals among other decorations.) He probably felt right at home in San Diego, where Camp Pendleton is situated and where the region's prominent military presence embraces such men as Coleman who tended to speak far more of the men he fought with than of himself when speaking of his wartime service.

But it was how Coleman spoke of live baseball from the Padres' broadcast booth that endeared him to Padres and other fans and, finally, enshrined him in the Hall of Fame in 2005 as a Frick Award winner. If you were there when they threw Dave Winfield out at second but he was safe, when Johnnie LeMaster speared a hard shot and threw Bill Madlock into the dugout, when Jesus Alou was in the on-deck circus, when George Hendrick lost a sun-blown popup, or when Winfield lost his head (There's a fly ball deep to center field—Winfield is going back, back, back—he hits his head against the wall and it's rolling toward second base!), you were one of this Jerry's kids.

Coleman was a better than useful Yankee second baseman in his playing days, who won the World Series MVP in 1950 and even managed to secure 9 at-bats in three games against Score, during his next-to-last playing season and Score's sophomore season, 1956. He went 3-for-9 against the Cleveland howitzer with 2 runs batted in, 2 strikeouts (both looking), a .333 batting average and on-base percentage, and a .556 slugging percentage.

As a player he's probably remembered best for what he did on the final day of the 1949 season, with the Yankees and the Red Sox entering the day in a dead heat for the American League pennant: in the fabled season-ender at Yankee Stadium, Coleman bagged what proved the game-winner when he broke a one-all tie and drove what proved the insurances runs in the bargain in the bottom of the eighth.

The hit was set up in the top of the inning when Joe McCarthy — in a move that lived in Red Sox infamy for decades — inexplicably lifted his starting pitcher Ellis Kinder for a pinch hitter despite Kinder seeming to get stronger as the game got deeper. He'd surrendered only one earned run all day and the Red Sox bullpen that season wasn't considered particularly strong.

Tommy Henrich opened the Yankee eighth with a home run off Mel Parnell, who was usually a starting pitcher. Then Yogi Berra (this was his coming-of-age season) singled but Joe DiMaggio hit into a double play. But the Yankees then loaded the bases on back-to-back singles (Johnny Lindell and Billy Johnson, with Hank Bauer running for Lindell) and a walk (Cliff Mapes) before Coleman barely got his bat on the ball and dumped a quail into short right near the foul line that turned into a three-run double ... too far out for Bobby Doerr to make a play running out from second, and too shallow for Boston right fielder Al Zarilla to reach when it sliced away from him.

Coleman was near second when he knew the ball would drop (everyone was running on the pitch) and he cleared the bases, but got thrown out at third on the play. The hit actually bothered Coleman—he thought it was a cheap hit. Then he ran into Joe McCarthy at a banquet three years later, according to David Halberstam in Summer of '49, and McCarthy told him, "You swung at it, didn't you?" Coleman took that to mean, "you didn't strike out and they didn't put anything past you. So don't apologize, you did your job."

McCarthy's lifting Kinder and Coleman's hit were the keys; Henrich's homer only tied the game at one, and the Yankees themselves thought Kinder was only getting stronger as the game got later. The Red Sox scored three in the ninth with Vic Raschi looking like he was tiring. Ted Williams drew a one-out walk and took second on a wild pitch, Vern Stephens singled him to third, and Bobby Doerr tripled them home, after which Billy Goodman followed a fly out (by Al Zarilla) with an RBI single to center, before Raschi got Birdie Tebbets to foul out near first base for the side, the game, and the first of Casey Stengel's five straight pennants.

Coleman would come back from a loss of depth perception incurred during his Korean wartime flying, endured a collarbone fracture, and lasted long enough to hit .364 in a 1957 World Series the Yankees lost in seven to the Milwaukee Braves. He spent time in the Yankee front office, the CBS baseball booth, then the Yankee booth (it was Coleman who had the privilege of calling Mickey Mantle's 500th career bomb) before migrating briefly to Anaheim and permanently to San Diego.

His broadcasting career was interrupted only once from there, when the old second baseman consented to try managing the team in 1980. His Padres finished dead last in the National League West, though. "I should never have taken it," he admitted frankly. "I look at it now and see the mistakes I made. If I wanted to be a manager, I should have gone to the minor leagues and developed there."

It was just as well. Coleman didn't belong in the dugout any longer. He belonged in his broadcast perch, telling Padres and other fans Bruce Benedict might not have been hurt as badly as he really was. Or, that if Pete Rose had gotten a post-hitting streak base hit while the streak was still on, they'd be throwing babies out of the upper deck. Or, that Willie McCovey swung and missed and fouled it back. Or, that Rich Folkers was throwing up in the bullpen. Or, that Billy Almon had all his in-laws and outlaws in the stands. Or, that a player lost to memory slid into second with a standup double. Or, that you never ask why you've been fired because they're liable to tell you.

That'll be Herb Score pushing his way to the front of the line at the Elysian Fields to hand Coleman a drink and a challenge to out-malaprop him while calling a game up there within Casey Stengel's earshot. Indeed they were blessed never to have had Yogi as their broadcast competition.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 12:19 PM | Comments (0)

January 3, 2014

MLB 2013: Unrealities

"What a long, strange trip it's been," sang the Grateful Dead once upon a time. Baseball's 2013 was much like that, including a few hallucinations and several surrealities. The fact that some might have wished some of the hallucinations were real may be beside the point entirely, even as other might have wished some of what was real was merely a hallucination.

Boston wished the Marathon Massacre was a mere hallucination, but they had no such wish that the Red Sox would refuse to turn the atrocity into a city's and a team's inspiration. "This is our bleeping city!" bellowed David Ortiz in its immediate wake and after the Red Sox — inverting the 2012 nightmare with a team of castoffs, bargains, spare parts, and bearded wonders — overthrew all expectations including their own to slash, thrash, mash, and dash their way to (read carefully, Yankee fans) their third World Series rings in nine seasons. (We still don't know how they did it, really, after leading the league in runs scored on the season but hitting a measly .169 among all the team not named Ortiz in the World Series.)

For 2013, Boston became America's bleeping city. And nobody disagreed when they took out an ad in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch thanking St. Louis for classy fans and a classy team of Cardinals who ran out of fuel at just the wrong time. For the Cardinals, that was.

The Mariano's classy, grand (and grandly deserved) farewell tour (including personal thank-yous to just about every ballpark worker in the league and a staggering All-Star Game moment and performance) was punctuated when an official scorer decided in September that he shouldn't be credited with a save ... because the pitcher preceding him wasn't "efficient" enough. This is something like saying the Academy Award for Best Picture was presented ill-advisedly because the trailer was insufficient. But it may have been a worthy bookend to a regular season that sort of began with a Milwaukee Brewer (Jean Segura) stealing first — when he thought he was out on a crowded second base (occupied by Ryan Braun) after he thwarted a rundown play, then saw first base open and took it. Don't ask.

The Los Angeles Dodgers — gone from leveraged rich man's plaything to flush with money and a willingness to invest it — went from the National League's subbasement (30-42 in games one through 40) to the National League Championship Series (a 62-28 regular season finish) until they ran out of gas, too ... despite one rookie fireplug (Yasiel Puig), a calmly dazzling Cy Young Award winner (Clayton Kershaw), and the inspiration of having a team and game legend (Sandy Koufax) back in their administrative folds. A Detroit Tiger pitcher (Max Scherzer) threatened Elroy Face's consecutive-win streak, didn't quite make it, but still picked up a 20+ win season and a Cy Young Award.

His Tigers, alas, ran out of gas and offense as the Red Sox were finding (with apologies to Casey Stengel) new ways to win nobody ever knew were invented yet. It went like this for them: the Red Sox clobbered the Tigers for 20 runs in their final regular-season meeting, then scored 19 runs in the entire American League Championship Series and still won the pennant. That, too, was a Red Sox thing of the year.

The defending Cy Young Award winners (R.A. Dickey, David Price) lost 13-0 games on the same day. (7 April — you can look it up.) Carlos Gonzalez argued, "I'm not just a Coors Canaveral cutter," then went out and led the National League in OPS on the road to prove it. Another fireplug rookie, Billy Hamilton, finished second on the Cincinnati Reds in stolen bases despite playing in a mere 22 games. Jonny Gomes, one of the Red Sox cast of castoffs, executed an unassisted double play to end July. Pretty good for a left fielder, no?

The (actual or alleged) curse-busting manager who fired the Red Sox right before they could fire him after the 2011 collapse resurrected himself and an unlikely team of Cleveland Indians all the way to the 2013 American League wild card game. It took five decades since Billy Shantz did it for brother Bobby, but at long last one brother (Jordan Danks) won it for his sibling (John Danks) with a home run. In early April the brothers Upton (B.J. and Justin) homered in the same inning, alas the only highlight of a season in which they were clasped to the Atlanta Braves' fold as saviors and ended up having little enough to do with the Braves winning the National League East.

Thirteen players were bagged and gagged in the scandal surrounding the shuttered Biogenesis clinic thought to provide or run conduit for actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances. One of them, Alex Rodriguez, spent the rest of his season appealing his suspension and seemingly bent otherwise upon doing his part to turn baseball government into a kangaroo court. Another, Jhonny Peralta, signed a big bucks deal with the Cardinals in the offseason, provoking enough debates about actual or alleged morality.

Ichiro achieved his 4,000th professional major league-level hit scandal-free. Poor journeyman Casper Wells spent one day surrendering 5 earned runs in two-thirds of an inning while going 0-for-7 at the plate. He was relieved by John McDonald. Did I mention this was in the 18th inning and they were position players (an outfielder and an infielder) and the Philadelphia Phillies, who'd be running out of quite enough all season, ran out of genuine pitchers that night?

Henderson Alvarez (Miami rookie) ended the season with a no-hitter and in the on-deck circle in the bottom of the ninth — when the winning run came home courtesy of a wild pitch. The Minnesota Twins bullpen struck out more batters than their starting rotation. The Yankees went without a home run for 28 games between June and July before Derek Jeter finally hit one out — on his first day back from the disabled list. Roy Halliday's distinguished and likely Hall of Fame career ended with his shoulder's betrayal and a streak of 17 strikeouts in 18 plate appearances — as a hitter. (Bill Hands, call your office: Hands was long the answer to a classic trivia question: "Name the Chicago Cub pitcher who recorded 14 straight strikeouts and add what was wrong with that?")

Andrew Brown, New York Met, joined Bo Jackson in the record books for hitting homers in back-to-back plate appearances — separated by 40 days in the minors. Dave Righetti, San Francisco pitching coach and once a splendid Yankee relief pitcher, survived an entire pitching career without the disabled list ... but went on it for reconstructive surgery in July — after blowing out his elbow lifting a suitcase.

David Ortiz's ALCS grand slam produced four runs charged to four different pitchers, a Tiger outfielder with a splendid headache, and a Boston cop into a fifteen-minute national phenomenon. Shane Victorino batted three times with the bases loaded in the Red Sox postseason — and went 3-for-3. With less than that on the sacks: 2-for-34. Mark Reynolds led the Cleveland Indians in homers when he was designated for assignment in August. Jacoby Ellsbury (World Series hero), Brian McCann, Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran, Curtis Granderson, and (especially) Robinson Cano elected to change uniforms for off-the-charts change. Baseball government finally agreed to bring about instant replay for critical games in 2014, though the final rules to govern won't be set until next month. Mark Prior, a pitching phenom broken by overwork and assorted elbow and shoulder miseries, finally decided to retire after years of trying to get back to where he once belonged. And as an object lesson.

Cooperstown will finally have a date with an Angell — the elegantly amiable New Yorker essayist (once more around the park: Angell isn't baseball's Homer; Homer was ancient Greece's Roger Angell) was voted the J.G. Taylor Spink Award. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports admitted he's been refusing to elect first-ballot Hall of Famers to teach those actual or alleged performance enhancers a lesson they'll never forget. Tim McCarver retired as a Fox color analyst with the Hall of Fame on his resume. Vin Scully agreed to stay with the Dodgers for another season and The Voice just might inspire legislation to be passed mandating that he stay until death or retirement — whichever comes first.

Alas, death as it must came to Stan Musial, the game's gentle giant, and to Earl Weaver, its bristling bantam. (When he retired the first time as Orioles manager, Don Denkinger said if he ran out of money to call the umpires' association: "We'd take up a collection for him. Anything to keep him off the field.") Likewise to Paul Blair, a center fielder with eight Gold Gloves, an enduring image as a center field acrobat proving Willie Mays wasn't the sole owner of that franchise, and two World Series rings as a Baltimore Oriole. Likewise to Michael Weiner, whose brave refusal to go gently into that good grey night under the heel of brain cancer was equaled only by his stance as a genuine fan who transformed the Major League Baseball Players Association from confrontationists to consensus builders.

Lou Brissie begged for a tryout with the Philadelphia Athletics after he barely survived one leg being shot to pieces in World War II — and became a mountain of courage on the mound. (He once took a liner off that leg from Ted Williams, went down in a heap, and as players including Williams crowded around him at the mound, supposedly barked to Williams, "Dammit, Ted, why didn't you pull the damn ball the way you're supposed to?) Bill Sharman made his name in the National Basketball Association and as Bob Cousy's backcourt partner in Boston, but he was in the dugout when Bobby Thomson hit the Shot Heard Round the World — as a New York Giant.

Gates Brown was a pinch-hitter extraordinaire for the Tigers who is remembered best, unfortunately, for landing on his chest — and two hot dogs tucked inside — sliding into base. ("I took a little English, a little math, some science, a few hubcaps, and some wheel covers," he said of his high school days.) Rick Camp did nothing as memorable as a relief pitcher as what he did to end a July 1985 game for his Braves against the Mets: send a game into the nineteenth inning with a home run. ("If this team needs me to hit a home run to win a game, they're in trouble.")

Gene Freese, freshly dealt from the Chicago White Sox, was one of the trades that made the 1961 pennant possible for the Reds. Johnny Kucks pitched a mere six years, but got into four World Series and one Copacabana brawl with the 1950s Yankees. Johnny Logan was a tenacious Braves infielder who sometimes seemed to spend half his playing time in an all-out war with his Cincinnati counterpart Johnny Temple while crediting his sure-handedness in the infield to his youth milking cows on a dairy farm. Stan Lopata was behind the plate when Robin Roberts missed a pickoff sign, threw Duke Snider a fastball down the chute, and needed Richie Ashburn running in from center to field it and throw out Cal Abrams at home to keep the Whiz Kids' 1950 pennant-winning hope alive for Dick Sisler to homer in the 10th.

Fred Talbot was a journeyman pitcher but a memorable character in the cast of Jim Bouton's Ball Four. ("When I called to see how he was doing," Bouton would remember in a followup appendix called Ball Five, "he said, 'Well, I'm still living,' and hung up. I didn't even get to say I was glad.") Virgil Trucks was very much of a pitcher, for awhile, including two no-hitters in 1952. Bob Turley was enough of a pitcher, pitching with no windup and winning the 1958 Cy Young Award, in a time when they gave it to one pitcher across the board. He became a Yankee in the first place thanks to a 15-player swap with the Orioles in 1954 that also made a Yankee out of Don Larsen.

Another ex-Yankee, Gus Triandos, set a record for passed balls catching Hoyt Wilhelm's knuckleball in Baltimore and inspired the invention (by Orioles general manager Paul Richards) of the big pillow glove. George Scott was a Boston rarity, a power hitting first baseman who actually played the position with grace. And Andy Pafko, who had a distinguished 17-season career, inspired the Brooklyn Dodgers front office to say, "Gentlemen, we have just traded for the pennant" ... only to be watching helplessly from left field when Thomson's liner sailed into the seats with the National League pennant attached.

Years later, Pafko agreed to meet Roger Kahn for The Boys of Summer, Kahn's classic epic catch-up to the 1950s Dodgers, despite feeling he wasn't really worthy. ("I wasn't in Brooklyn long enough," said the old outfielder who'd spent much time with the Braves and the Cubs feasting on Dodger pitching.) Pafko refused anything more elaborate than a comfortable sandwich for the occasion while agreeing to sign a glove Kahn carried that he'd gotten others on the team to sign.

"I don't belong with those others," Pafko said. "Thanks for a good club sandwich. Maybe I saved you a little money, huh? [Carl] Furillo, [Duke] Snider, and guys who could play like that, you ought to buy them the steaks."

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:08 PM | Comments (0)

January 2, 2014

NFL Weekly Predictions: Wild Card

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-2½)

The Chiefs are well-rested after sitting nearly all of their starters in last week's 27-24 overtime loss in San Diego. Sunday's wild card round game is a rematch of a week 16 game, won 23-7 by the Colts in Kansas City.

"Congratulations to the Philadelphia Eagles," Andy Reid said. "And congratulations for me are in order, as well. I was responsible for two teams making the playoffs this year.

"We really didn't try to win last week in San Diego. It will be different in Indy. As Herman Edwards once said, 'You play to win the game.' Apparently, Herm's coaching record of 15-33 didn't reflect that. He was good for a quote, but not for a quota.

"We're trying to do something that this franchise hasn't done since 1993, and that's win a playoff game. That's 20 years of futility, and an equal number of next year's resolutions."

The Colts are in the playoffs for the second-straight year, this time as the AFC South champions. Andrew Luck seeks his first playoff win, and will have the backing of a loud and hungry home crowd.

"We're thrilled to be playing at home," Luck said. "Indianapolis should be rocking. The playoff atmosphere will be so palpable, you'll be able to cut it with a knife. In Lucas Oil Stadium, that's called 'viscosity.'

"Of course, LOS is the house that Peyton Manning built. And, if you know anything about our owner Jim Irsay, you know he likes a 'clean house.' Plus, he's really into remodeling. Irsay's made a personal plea to me that sounded a lot like his television pitch for a show on Home and Garden Television: 'Pimp That Trophy Room.'"

Andrew Luck will be the best player on the field, but don't discount Alex Smith. He manages games so well, even Whitey Herzog would be impressed. But Luck can not only manage games, he can take them over. Plus, he's got the home crowd behind him. But that's not all. Luck's got an entire network on his side, because CBS wants nothing more than a Colts/Broncos divisional round game, a game which will give new meaning to the term "quarterback rating."

Luck throws for two touchdowns, and Indy survives a shaky start to win, 30-24.

New Orleans @ Philadelphia (+2½)

The Saints downed the Buccaneers 42-17 in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last week. Drew Brees passed for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns, and topped 5,000 yards passing for the fourth time. New Orleans is 8-0 at home this season, but only 3-5 on the road.

"We're untouchable at home," Sean Payton said, "and so is Brees. Just ask Ahmad Brooks. Unfortunately, we're playing on the road, where we are anything but untouchable. But don't forget, the Eagles are only 4-4 at home. So, it's like Sunday's game will be played on a neutral field. But there's no way a Philly player would use the word 'neutral' to describe their home-field advantage. Fans would go nuts. Heck, not even Riley Cooper would get away with saying the 'N' word.

"We're expecting a tough game in Philly. Our offense may be the NFL's most pass-happy, but the Eagles have a dangerous aerial assault in their own right. Nick Foles is not afraid to throw from anywhere on the field, and neither are the Eagles' fans. Whether it's snowballs, batteries, artificial limbs, bottles, IEDs, IUDs, or RPGs, those fans have tossed it. What's most amazing about it is that they throw spirals."

The Eagles held off the Cowboys 24-22 to lay claim to the NFC East crown and the NFC's No. 3 seed. Brandon Boykin intercepted Kyle Orton late in the fourth quarter to seal the win.

"That interception verified what everyone knew," Chip Kelly said. "Orton is a 'Tony Romo substitute.' Surgery can alleviate a bulging disc in a back, but it can't remove monkeys.

"This is an interesting matchup. It's the Saints and the Eagles, two teams known for their bounty scandals. Interestingly enough, Buddy Ryan, who was involved in Bounty Bowls I and II, is the father of Saints' defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. Rob has crafted the NFL's fourth-ranked defense, which just goes to prove you should put money on your defense instead of their opponents' heads. Gregg Williams is responsible for a lot of concussions, but only one repercussion."

Brees has never won a playoff game on the road. Foles has never played in a playoff game. That's got to put a lot of pressure on the head of the Eagles' trigger man. And the Saints' defense will use that against him. There's no need for a bounty on Foles. New Orleans doesn't want to get upside his head, they just want to get inside his head. And there's no rule against that. But I'm sure Roger Goodell is working on that.

Foles throws 2 interceptions, and Brees picks apart the Philly defense. Brees throws for 2 touchdowns, one to Jimmy Graham, whose celebratory windmill dunk brings down the crossbar, drawing comparisons to 76er great Daryl Dawkins, who later dubs the red-headed offspring of a mixed-race couple "Neopolitan Thunder."

New Orleans wins, 27-23.

San Diego @ Cincinnati (-7)

San Diego beat the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime Sunday and qualified for the playoffs, thanks to losses by the Dolphins and Ravens. Philip Rivers threw 3 touchdown passes and will lead the Chargers into Paul Brown Stadium, where temperatures are forecast in the 40s.

"Compared to the 1982 AFC Championship Game," Philip Rivers said, "that's downright balmy. That 1982 game featured temperatures in the single digits. That's cold. You don't often see single digits in San Diego, but when you do, it's usually in the win column.

"The Bengals were perfect at home this season. What wasn't perfect at home? The officials in San Diego last week. But what do you want me to do, apologize? Okay. I'm sorry, Pittsburgh Steelers. Those are 'The Breaks.' I know hearing that from me is little consolation, but give a listen to Kurtis Blow's version of 'The Breaks.' That should make them feel better."

The Bengals hold the AFC's No. 3 seed after finishing the season atop the AFC North with an 11-5 record. With a win, Cincy would head to either Denver or New England for a divisional round game.

"Our focus is strictly on the Chargers," Marvin Lewis said. "They're a lot like an illegal formation penalty for overloading one side of the line of scrimmage — they shouldn't be overlooked. Rivers is one of the most potent quarterbacks in the league. He's got the statistics, and the offspring, to prove it.

"We need Andy Dalton to limit his mistakes. He threw 33 touchdowns this year, but also tossed 20 interceptions. That's a 3.3-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In layman's terms, it means for every 3.3 TDs he threw, he tossed 2 interceptions. That doesn't bode well for us. There's not a chance in hell Andy throws 3.3 touchdowns against the Chargers, but there's a good chance he'll throw 2 interceptions."

Cincinnati wins 23-20.

San Francisco @ Green Bay (+2½)

The Packers, charged by the return of Aaron Rodgers, beat the Bears 33-28 in Chicago to claim the NFC North. Rodgers threw for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the game-winning score to Randall Cobb on fourth down with 38 seconds left.

"Unlike that other 'A-Rod,'" Rodgers said, "there was no denying me. I'm not sure what happened on that play, but there was a breakdown in coverage. In any case, it was a great play by Randall. Luckily, we were both thinking the same thing. You could say our thoughts were homogenous, but I won't, because I'll have to reaffirm my sexuality.

"The 49ers spanked us 45-31 last year in the divisional round. We haven't forgotten that game, especially our defense. One thing they can hold is a grudge.

"But revenge is a dish best served cold, and it will be cold at Lambeau Field. The low is expected to be 5 degrees. Those fellows from California are susceptible to exposure. We've got a player with a similar problem. Clay Matthews has a nasty case of overexposure. He's been in more commercials than games."

The 49ers have won six straight and enter the playoffs as the league's hottest team. Jim Harbaugh and company are looking for their second-straight trip to the big game.

"We're thinking nothing short of the Super Bowl," Jim Harbaugh said. "And speaking of 'shorts' and the 'Super Bowl,' there was a blackout in last year's title game. And guess what? We're playing 'lights out' right now. We're excelling in all phases of the game; even Aldon Smith is playing at a high level, almost twice the legal limit, according to some.

"We plan to attack the Green Bay defense right where it's weakest — on the field. I assume they'll try to take away our running game and force Colin Kaepernick to throw. We ranked 30th in passing offense this season. That could be attributed to our running game, but I like to think it's because we only played the Packers once this year."

San Francisco wins, 26-20.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:35 AM | Comments (2)

January 1, 2014

Solving Tanking Doesn't Mean Reinventing the Wheel

In the NBA season, the Christmas season seems like a natural measuring tool. While it certainly isn't the time for reflection that the All-Star Break is, it is the time by which teams have usually played about a third of their games. Christmas Day is the only time until the playoffs when nationally televised games can be seen from midday to midnight.

So with all those games that day, plus the steady slate of games each night in the weeks leading up to New Year's, it would be understandable if the draft was the furthest thing from your mind. However, with this year's draft class, plus the number of mediocre-to-bad teams in the East, tanking and how to fix it is already being talked about.

Even though it was so close to Christmas you may have missed it, Grantland's Zach Lowe (my favorite NBA writer, bar none) recently released the details of an extravagant new plan proposed to the league in the hopes of eliminating the tanking issue once and for all.

To make a long story with some semantics much shorter, the proposal involves a "wheel" of draft selection spots that would prescribe a team's first round draft position every year for the next 30 years. In Lowe's words, the proposal “has gained initial traction among some high-level NBA officials — to the point that the NBA may float the proposal to owners sometime in 2014, according to league sources."

On its face, the wheel would be a totally egalitarian way to decide draft position. Every team would end up with about the same average draft pick over 6-, 12- and 30-year spans. All the incentive or disincentive structures for tanking would disappear overnight. However, it would introduce the possibility of making the strongest teams into mega-dynasties and the weakest into some of the most moribund franchises in pro sports. It would also be the most radical format of any pro league that conducts a draft for competitive balance.

If we're being completely honest with ourselves, it's easy to see that something this unorthodox hardly has any chance of seeing the full light of day. It would be much too controversial, and it's hard to see owners agreeing to something that could potentially devalue teams' brands and competitive potential.

But one question that I don't see posed in the tanking debates is the one of, "Is the current system really all that bad?"

Whenever tanking comes up, there's usually an element of determinism involved in the arguments of those who say that a completely different system should be used. In the case of tanking, a very bad team finishing in a certain position relative to the rest of the league doesn't guarantee that it will pick in that spot, of course.

Think back to the 2011-12 66-game lockout season. The Bobcats tanked their way to a 7-59 record, losing their final 23 games. Under the NBA system, the Bobcats could finish with no lower than the fourth pick. Charlotte "lost" the lottery and got the second pick. Under the NHL draft lottery system, the Bobcats could pick no lower than second. And in the NFL and MLB systems, the Bobcats would be first. Furthermore, the most likely outcome for the Bobcats in 2012 of any pick was that fourth pick, which had a 35.7 percent chance of happening.

Put another way: If you are one of the absolute worst teams in the NBA, you have the least amount of incentives to tank than in any major North American sport.

However, there is a massive problem with the draft lottery. Once you get below the top five teams or so, the odds become stacked in favor of a team drafting exactly where it finished the season. This chart on the Bobcats' website lines up how the percentages work.

Let's take an example of how this can mess up the draft and encourage tanking with an example from last year. After a March 22 win in Atlanta, Portland was 33-36 and only 2.5 games behind the Lakers for the last playoff spot in the West. Were the season to end that day, the Blazers had a 96 percent shot at picking 13th, exactly in line with their record. Portland failed to win another game, and quickly fell out of playoff contention.

Once the Blazers lost their fifth or sixth game in a row, there was truly no point in winning another one. Portland moved "up" to the 10th-worst record in the league, and picked there, as it had an 87 percent chance at doing so in the lottery. Golden State's fall from 20-26 in March 2012 to 23-43 at the end of the season to nab the sixth pick and Harrison Barnes is another example of this phenomenon.

So what needs to be done to preserve competitive integrity? It's simple. The NBA needs to just manipulate the odds somewhat so that a team isn't nearly as locked into it's draft position from the fifth pick or so down to the 14th. That's it.

In Portland's case, if the odds of picking 10th last year were, say, 55 percent instead of 87 percent, the incentive for tanking plummets, since the Blazers would then have a 9-in-20 shot of picking in a different spot than their record would dictate.

For this season, with one of the most impressive draft classes ever all but certain to appear in June's draft, speculation about tanking arose before even a game had been played. And now, Phoenix, one of those teams that people said would be better off tanking, looks like a solid contender for a playoff spot and perhaps more following a demolition of the Clippers on Monday night.

Perhaps the tanking talk has cooled down for now, what with the middle of the season in full swing and the knowledge that teams like the Jazz and the Bucks are going to be losing no matter what. However, once playoff positions get more settled, the issue will come back again. It certainly doesn't have to be that way, and no radical change is necessary.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 6:14 PM | Comments (0)