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December 31, 2013

Sports Central's 2013 NFL All-Pro Team

After a phenomenal, dramatic Week 17, it's time to honor this season's most outstanding players. This column exists to explain the reasons I chose certain players, or didn't take others, and to give recognition to those who just missed the cut. If all you care about is who made the team, skip to the end and you'll find a list, along with power rankings, playoff predictions, and the best team not to make the playoffs this year.

We name 13 players on offense and 13 on defense. With fullbacks playing ever smaller roles in the offense, a third wide receiver and second tight end are essential. On defense, we list three cornerbacks (everyone needs a good nickel back) and two each of defensive tackles and inside linebackers (accommodating both the 3-4 and 4-3).

Our choices are listed in order, so you'll know which receiver is third, which tight end is second, and so on.

Quarterback: Peyton Manning (DEN)
Last Year: Tom Brady (NE)

Manning broke single-season records for passing yardage (5,477) and touchdowns (55). He posted the second-highest passer rating of his career (115.1), and rather quietly took by far the fewest sacks of any starting quarterback (18). He broke the record for largest TD/INT differential (+45), beating Tom Brady's mark from 2007 (+42), and light years ahead of second-place Drew Brees (+27). I don't know if this is the greatest regular season ever by a quarterback, or even the greatest regular season ever by Peyton Manning, but it was an amazing year.

Running Back: LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Last Year: Adrian Peterson (MIN)

Coming into Week 17, it was about 60/40 that I'd choose McCoy ahead of Jamaal Charles (KC). The Chiefs rested starters on Sunday, and McCoy had a great week, so the choice was easy, but Charles had a great year. He rushed for 1,287 yards, 3rd-best in the league, with a 4.97 average that is actually his career-low. He also caught 70 passes for 693 yards, and scored 19 TDs, by far the most in the NFL, actually the most by any player since ... LeSean McCoy in 2011.

This year, McCoy led the league in rushing by almost 300 yards, ranked second in rushing average (5.12), gained 500 receiving yards, and scored double-digit touchdowns. Charles and McCoy are similar players: they're both fast, with great acceleration, and they're both good receivers. Charles is probably the faster of the two, but McCoy's agility and knack for finding the hole are unparalleled.

Fullback: John Kuhn (GB)
Last Year: Darrel Young (WAS)

I want to discuss the history of the fullback position. Feel free to skip ahead to wide receivers if you're not interested.

1946 is usually considered the beginning of pro football's Modern Era. Fullbacks at this time, on up through the early '70s or so, were ball-carriers, blockers, and receivers. They were usually (but not always) bigger and stronger than featured tailbacks, and they played a role very similar to modern RBs, except that they were expected to run-block regularly. Hall of Famers like Joe Perry, Larry Csonka, John Riggins — and of course, Jim Brown — were listed as fullbacks. Jim Taylor works as a good prototype of this style. He was an extremely successful ball-carrier, but he also led the way for Paul Hornung on the famous Lombardi sweeps.

Over the next 25 years, fullback evolved to become primarily a blocking position, with very few handoffs to the FB. This is typified by Daryl Johnston, who led the way for Emmitt Smith and caught about 30 passes a year, but only carried once or twice a game. This same model applied to Howard Griffith in Denver at the end of the '90s, and later to players like Lorenzo Neal and Mack Strong.

Today's fullbacks see the field much less often than Johnston and Neal. Some teams don't even carry a fullback. They've been replaced by a third wide receiver, a second tight end, sometimes extra linemen or even (in goal-line situations) defensive tackles. Versatile tight ends like Charles Clay (MIA) often line up in the backfield as well as on the line, playing sort of an H-Back role.

When the Associated Press began naming All-Pro teams, they had two RB slots. That worked because there wasn't much functional difference between RB and FB; Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung did pretty much the same thing. In the '90s, though, with most teams using a featured RB and a fullback who seldom took handoffs, naming two RBs to the All-Pro team was ridiculous. No one used two RBs any more, or anyway nobody did it effectively. Even teams that used a committee generally subbed one RB out when they put the other one in.

Pressure built to officially honor a fullback, and although AP still moronically insists on naming two RBs every year, it eventually did (in 1996) add a fullback to its annual All-Pro team. If that procedure had begun earlier, Moose Johnston might be a Hall of Fame candidate now. Or maybe not — the voters clearly didn't understand what they were supposed to be looking for at FB. The first year, they chose a receiving specialist, Larry Centers. Then they picked Mike Alstott every year until he retired.

So now we vote for a fullback each year, but the position is basically extinct. There are only about half a dozen players whom we could reasonably label as fullbacks and who might be described as full-time players. Naming an All-Pro fullback, in 2013, is pointless. In 2009, I didn't name an All-Pro FB, and a year later called that decision "silly," so my vote this year goes to John Kuhn. Three different Packer RBs rushed for 100 yards this season (Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Johnathan Franklin), all behind Kuhn's lead blocks. He also touches the ball about twice a game, mostly in short yardage.

Bruce Miller (SF) is probably a better pure blocker, and he's used more in the receiving game, but he missed most of the last month. The Pro Bowl fullbacks, Marcel Reece (OAK) and Mike Tolbert (CAR), touch the ball more than anyone, and they do lead-block, so those would be reasonable choices, Tolbert in particular. Really, though, we should just stop selecting fullbacks.

Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson (DET), Josh Gordon (CLE), Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
Last Year: Calvin Johnson (DET), Brandon Marshall (CHI), Andre Johnson (HOU)

Calvin Johnson had a couple of really bad drops in Week 15, on Monday Night Football, in a game the Lions needed to win. Johnson has never had great hands, and that's always been the weakest part of his game. But he's the best in the league at getting open, and he makes catches even when he's not open, and he's good with the ball in his hands. He missed two games but still ranked among the top three in receiving yards and TDs. An astonishing 82% of his catches resulted in first downs, by far the best percentage in the league. In Week 8, he gained 329 yards, the most ever in a four-quarter game. Johnson consistently receives, and beats, double coverage.

Gordon, suspended the first two games of the season, easily led the league in receiving yards. He averaged 117.6 per game, compared to 106.6 for Megatron, and 93.7 for distant-third-place Antonio Brown (PIT). More than anything, Gordon was explosive. He led the league in receptions of 20+ yards (30) and 40+ yards (9, tied with A.J. Green), and his 18.9 average led the NFL. Gordon and Johnson tied for the most 100-yard receiving games this season (7).

Five players had six 100-yard receiving games: Jimmy Graham (NO), A.J. Green (CIN), Andre Johnson (HOU), Brandon Marshall (CHI), and Demaryius Thomas (DEN). Graham led the NFL in receiving TDs. Green and Thomas were the only players to rank top-10 in every major receiving category (receptions, yards, first downs, TDs). Marshall led the league in first down receptions.

Statistically, Brown should be the third WR. He ranked 2nd in receptions (110), yards (1,499), and first downs (69), and tied for 16th in TDs (8). Brown is a different style than most of the top receivers. He's undersized (5-10, 186), but speedy and elusive. He's also a good punt returner (409 yds, 12.8 avg, TD), and very probably the MVP of the 8-8 Steelers. I don't have anything bad to say about Antonio Brown. But I chose Thomas as the third wideout on this year's All-Pro team. He was great at every aspect of receiving, and after Peyton Manning, he was the most important player on Denver's record-breaking offense, leading the team with 14 TDs.

Tight End: Vernon Davis (SF), Jason Witten (DAL)
Last Year: Jason Witten (DAL), Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

Ever since he was drafted in 2006, we've been waiting for Vernon Davis to play up to his potential. He's been among the best tight ends for years, and I named him to my 2009 All-Pro Team, but this was probably his best season. He's had better stats in other years, but in a limited offense without explosive teammates, Davis really distinguished himself. He led the 49ers with 13 TDs, and he is a very good blocker when called upon, much better than any of the other serious candidates.

No second tight end really stood out. Davis, Witten, Gonzalez, and Antonio Gates (SD) all gained 850-875 receiving yards, while Jordan Cameron (CLE) posted 917 and Julius Thomas (DEN) 788, both in the same neighborhood. Witten gets the edge as a blocker and consistent play-maker.

Jimmy Graham is a sensational receiver. He sometimes seems impossible to defend. Linebackers can't keep up with him, and DBs can't defend his size. But weighing 265 pounds doesn't make you a TE; lining up next to the tackle and blocking LBs does. Not on every play, but at least with some degree of frequency. I didn't choose Graham for the same reason I never listed Mike Alstott as a fullback. I think Graham could play tight end, but that's not how the Saints use him. He's a top-10 wide receiver.

Center: Jonathan Goodwin (SF)
Last Year: Mike Pouncey (MIA)

There are no great centers right now. There are guys who could be great in the future, like Travis Frederick (DAL) and the Pouncey twins. And there are guys who used to be great and are still pretty good, like Nick Mangold (NYJ) and Nick Hardwick (SD). I'm not crazy about Goodwin, but every team needs a center, and this year he's it.

Guard: Logan Mankins (NE), Andy Levitre (TEN)
Last Year: Mike Iupati (SF), Andy Levitre (BUF)

This is the first time Logan Mankins has played 16 games since 2009, and it's the first time I've chosen him All-Pro since '09. With the Patriots missing their best receiving weapons, and constantly shuffling RBs, Tom Brady and the offensive line stepped up to lead New England to a 12-4 record and first-round bye. Mankins even shifted outside to left tackle in Week 16, and played very well in a 41-7 beatdown of the Ravens. Levitre, a standout last year in Buffalo, this year was a standout in Tennessee.

Iupati is probably the best right now, but he missed four games with a knee injury, and didn't look 100% when he returned in Week 16.

Offensive Tackle: Jason Peters (PHI), Joe Staley (SF)
Last Year: Duane Brown (HOU), Joe Staley (SF)

Here's my dilemma: the 49ers had a pretty average offense. They ranked 11th in scoring, but 24th in yardage and 18th in third-down percentage. They scored because they didn't commit a lot of turnovers, and because they had good field position from their defense and special teams. If Goodwin, Iupati, and Staley are all among the best at their positions, why aren't the Niners an elite offense? I guess there are three potential explanations:

1. I'm overrating the San Francisco linemen.
2. Offensive linemen just aren't that important.
3. Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore and everyone else were a little worse than they seemed, but they all look better because of the line.

I vote for Choice 3.

Peters isn't the player he was two years ago, but two years ago he was otherworldly. Now he's just great. Chip Kelly has done a nice job, but getting LeSean McCoy and Peters back healthy was the Eagles' most important difference from 2012 to 2013. Tyron Smith (DAL) would probably be my third choice.

Defensive Tackle: Justin Smith (SF), Ndamukong Suh (DET)
Last Year: Geno Atkins (CIN), Justin Smith (SF)

In Week 16, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, via the MNF announcers, hyped linebacker NaVorro Bowman as Defensive Player of the Year. Bowman is terrific, but I don't think he's the most important defensive player on his own team. To me, Justin Smith is the glue that holds this unit together. Without Bowman, Patrick Willis plays a bigger role, the safeties and the other linebackers have to step up. Without Smith, the whole operation suffers. He's not replaceable.

Choosing the other spot was a headache, because so many guys had good seasons. The sack artists mostly played on bad teams: Jason Hatcher (DAL), Jurrell Casey (TEN), Kyle Williams (BUF), Gerald McCoy (TB) ... those are all good players, but on most teams, rushing the passer is not an interior lineman's primary responsibility, so you don't want to judge these guys just by that one stat. A great DT, like Smith, makes the whole defense better. No DT on a winning team had more than 6.5 sacks this season. It's not that sacks are bad — that 6.5 is Justin Smith — but they're not all-important, and I feel there were better players.

Haloti Ngata (BAL) had his best season in a couple of years, and Darnell Dockett (ARI) played well. After terrific starts the first half of the season, neither Dontari Poe (KC) nor Suh finished the season strong. Ultimately, though, I went with Suh, simply for the havoc he creates and the fear he inspires. He's a little up-and-down, but teams have to double-team Suh. What he does, probably better than any other interior lineman, is penetrate into the backfield. He makes tackles behind the line of scrimmage, he knocks down passes, he's disruptive.

Defensive End: J.J. Watt (HOU), Robert Quinn (STL)
Last Year: J.J. Watt (HOU), Calais Campbell (ARI)

Quinn led all linemen, easily, in sacks (18) and forced fumbles (7). Watt led in everything else. He had 10.5 sacks, which is sensational for a 3-4 DE, but he also made 65 solo tackles — by far the most of any lineman — with 7 pass deflections and 4 forced fumbles. His team imploded, but Watt is still the best defensive lineman in football. He should (but won't) be a serious DPOY candidate.

There were no other contenders. Plenty of guys had good years, but none close to Quinn and Watt.

Outside Linebacker: Robert Mathis (IND), Lavonte David (TB)
Last Year: Von Miller (DEN), Jerod Mayo (NE)

No question, the biggest Pro Bowl snubs this year were OLBs who aren't pass-rush specialists. David finished the year with 106 solo tackles, 6 sacks, and 5 interceptions. He led all linebackers in tackles for loss (20), including a safety in Week 10. He forced 2 fumbles, recovered a fumble, and defensed 10 passes. DeAndre Levy (DET) made 85 solo tackles, with 6 INTs, 15 other PDs, and a touchdown.

I know players can make an impact that doesn't show up in the stats, but several OLBs made the Pro Bowl with about 40 solo tackles, 10 sacks, and virtually no other significant stats. Call me crazy, I'd rather have 50 extra tackles, 5 picks, and 10 passes defensed than 10 sacks. We need to look beyond one stat, especially at positions like OLB where some players have very different responsibilities. Mathis is a pass-rush specialist, but he was a good choice, the NFL's leader in sacks (19.5) and forced fumbles (8).

Inside Linebacker: Karlos Dansby (ARI), NaVorro Bowman (SF)
Last Year: Daryl Washington (ARI), NaVorro Bowman (SF)

I guess the official team will have Luke Kuechly (CAR) and Bowman, close to unanimously. Kuechly is a good player, of course, but I don't believe he's at the same level as Dansby or Bowman. He wouldn't even be my third choice. Paul Posluszny (JAC), trapped on an awful team, would be.

Kuechly gets a lot of attention because he was a top-10 draft pick, he flies around like a lunatic, he's white, he has a great line to keep blockers away from him, and his stats are inflated by the ridiculous way Carolina tabulates tackle assists. Kiko Alonso (BUF) and Kuechly led the NFL in assists. The chart below shows solo tackles and assists:

How likely is it that Dansby and Bowman had 30% more solo tackles, but Kuechly and Alonso had 430% more assists? It's not just improbable, it's out of the question. Assists are a shady stat that, with few exceptions, should be disregarded*.

* Every team in the NFL had 650-900 solo tackles this season, most of them between 725-825. But assists ranged from 127 (Arizona) to 426 (New England). You could conclude that Arizona's defense, ranked 6th in yards and 7th in scoring, is full of selfish players who won't help out their teammates, or lazy players who don't hustle to the ball. Or you could conclude that this stat is deeply flawed, to the point of being almost totally useless.

The only ILBs with 100 solo tackles this year were Posluszny (121), Bowman, Dansby, DeMeco Ryans (102), and depending on whether you consider him an ILB or OLB, maybe Vontaze Burfict (114). Dansby added 6.5 sacks, 4 INTs (2 returned for TD), 19 other PDs, an FF, and an FR. Bowman tallied 5 sacks, 4 FF, 2 FR, and interceptions each of the last two weeks, including the game-clinching TD return in Week 16. These guys made routine plays — all those tackles — and they had impact plays like sacks and interceptions. Kuechly, for what it's worth, had 2 sacks, 4 INTs, 7 PDs, and no fumbles forced or recovered. I don't mean to pick on him, because he's a good, young player, but I don't buy the idea that he's a legitimate DPOY candidate. Kuechly looks good, the same way a center fielder in MLB looks good because he makes diving catches. By the same analogy, Dansby and Bowman don't need to make diving catches, because they anticipate the ball and put themselves in position ahead of time.

Cornerback: Richard Sherman (SEA), Alterraun Verner (TEN), Joe Haden (CLE)
Last Year: Charles Tillman (CHI), Richard Sherman (SEA), Antonio Cromartie (NYJ)

Sherman intercepted 8 passes this year, two more than anyone else, and returned them for 125 yards and a TD. In the first six weeks of the season, Verner intercepted 4 passes, with 13 PDs, so teams stopped throwing at him, but he still finished with 5 picks and a league-leading 23 passes defensed.

Haden edged Brent Grimes (MIA) and Patrick Peterson (ARI) for the nickel corner position. His season included 4 INTs, 20 PDs, and a touchdown, but I was also struck by the way top WRs struggled against Cleveland. In two matchups with the Browns, A.J. Green combined for 58 yards and no TDs. Calvin Johnson, 3 catches for 25 yards. The most receiving yardage Cleveland allowed to a single player this year came in Week 14, when RB Shane Vereen gained 153 yards, and that's not Haden's responsibility.

Free Safety: Earl Thomas (SEA)
Last Year: Thomas DeCoud (ATL)

I'm deferring to popular opinion on this one. It seemed to me that Eric Weddle (SD) had a better season than Earl Thomas. He played better in the games I saw, and he had better stats. But the world is gaga over Thomas, and the gap between them isn't so large that I'm going to dismiss what appears to be a consensus among other analysts.

Thomas intercepted 5 passes this year, and he forced 2 fumbles. He's fast, powerful, has a knack for finding the ball. Two areas where he could improve are blitzing and quick diagnosis on run plays. Thomas made 78 solo tackles, but none behind the line of scrimmage. That's actually not a huge deal, because those plays are more often the role of a strong safety, and the Seahawks have so many play-makers on defense that teammates will beat him to the ball-carrier and Thomas doesn't have to make those plays.

Weddle only had 2 INTs, but he made 88 solo tackles, including 5 for a loss. He had a sack, a forced fumble, two recoveries, and 10 passes defensed. Other free safeties with standout seasons included Barry Church (DAL), Ryan Clark (PIT), Reshad Jones (MIA), and Mike Mitchell (CAR).

Strong Safety: Eric Berry (KC)
Last Year: Glover Quin (HOU)

Berry, like most of Kansas City's stars, was held out of Week 17. He still finished the season with 66 solo tackles, including 11 for a loss, most of any DB. He had 3.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and 2 FR. Berry defensed 10 passes and intercepted three, returning them for a combined 158 yards, and he scored 2 TDs on defense. He was an impact player for one of the league's best defenses.

T.J. Ward (CLE) doesn't get much attention in Cleveland, but he had a similar year, including 9 TFL, over 100 return yards, and 2 TDs.

Kicker: Stephen Gostkowski (NE)
Last Year: Blair Walsh (MIN)

Two placekickers drew widespread attention this season. Matt Prater (DEN) led the NFL in field goal percentage, and kicked a record-long 64-yard field goal in Denver. Justin Tucker (BAL) made a lot of field goals in a couple of nationally televised games — on Thanksgiving in Week 13 and on MNF in Week 15. Both had good seasons, and both were among my finalists at this position, along with Dan Carpenter (BUF), Graham Gano (CAR), and Steven Hauschka (SEA).

Gostkowski and Tucker tied for the most field goals this season, both 38-of-41. Both made 22 kicks from inside 40 yards, and 16 from 40 or beyond. But Tucker's misses came from 37, 44, and 50 yards. Gostkowski missed from 43, 48, and 55. That 55-yarder came in the second quarter of Week 13, against the Texans. With New England behind by 3 in the fourth quarter, Gostkowski connected twice from 53 yards to tie, then win the game for the Patriots. Gostkowski plays in tougher weather than Tucker, made more extra points, and was better on kickoffs, inducing more touchbacks and converting a successful onside kick. Also, for whatever it's worth, Gostkowski led the NFL in scoring (158).

Punter: Mike Scifres (SD)
Last Year: Andy Lee (SF)

Scifres was my All-Pro punter in 2004, 2005, and 2007. He's been pretty good since (apart from a disastrous 2010 that would have gotten a less accomplished player cut), but not at that same level. He's back. Scifres had 30 of his 56 punts downed inside the 20-yard line, the only player with more than half his punts in that deep. That might not be impressive if Scifres also bombed a bunch of touchbacks, but he finished the season with 1. That's o-n-e. Scifres put 12 of those 30 inside the 10-yard line, and he did a great job of limiting returns. His average wasn't anything special, but he had a lot of punts from the opponent's territory, where you have to shorten them up to avoid the end zone. He was terrific at managing those most important yards, and more than 1/3 of his punts were fair caught. My only real hesitation was that Scifres benefits from an exceptional special teams unit to help down those kicks.

My other finalists were Donnie Jones (PHI), Brett Kern (TEN), Thomas Morstead (NO), and Kevin Huber (CIN), who broke his jaw in Week 15 and missed the last two games of the season. Johnny Hekker (STL) easily led the league in net average, but he usually had the whole field to work with, and that makes a huge difference in a punter's average.

Kick Returner: Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN)
Last Year: Leodis McKelvin (BUF)

Patterson unquestionably was the league's best kickoff returner in 2013. He led the NFL in KR average (32.4) and touchdowns (2), ranking second in yardage by under 50 (1,393). But he didn't return punts. Dexter McCluster (KC) was the league's best punt returner. He led in PR yards and TDs, with a good average and very few fair catches (which boost average, but gain zero yards for the team). But McCluster didn't return kickoffs. Trindon Holliday (DEN) and Jeremy Ross (DET) were the only players to return both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns this year, but Holliday makes way too many mistakes, and Ross only had 30 returns all year, under 2 per game. Devin Hester (CHI) had a big year, with good averages on both kickoffs and punts, and a PR TD, but he fumbled four times.

My second choice was Dwayne Harris (DAL), who averaged 30.6 on kickoff returns and 12.8 on punt returns, with a PR TD. But Patterson was so explosive, with 10 returns of 40 yards or more, he doesn't need any punt returns to earn All-Pro honors.

Special Teamer: Matthew Slater (NE)
Last Year: N/A

I normally don't name a special teams ace, but Slater is phenomenal. Any team I'm putting together, I want him on it. Other favorites include Kassim Osgood (SF) and Seyi Ajirotutu (SD). Osgood is building a special teams résumé that compares favorably with Steve Tasker's.

Eight players repeat from my 2012 All-Pro team: Calvin Johnson, Jason Witten, Andy Levitre, Joe Staley, Justin Smith, J.J. Watt, NaVorro Bowman, and Richard Sherman. I think that's the most back-to-back selections I've ever made. Last year only had three.

Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning (DEN)
Last Year: Adrian Peterson (MIN)

Manning set records for passing yards and TDs, and the Broncos set the single-season scoring mark. Easy choice.

Defensive Player of the Year: Richard Sherman (SEA)
Last Year: J.J. Watt (HOU)

Hard choice. Watt had another great season. Robert Quinn and Robert Mathis were devastating pass-rushers. Lavonte David, Karlos Dansby, NaVorro Bowman ... a number of players had excellent seasons, but there wasn't the one obvious standout like Watt last year.

Broadly speaking, cornerbacks are effective one of two ways. Sometimes they just shut everything down, take away half the field, or at least the opponent's top receiver. Other times they play a little bit off, try to bait the QB so they can make big plays. Richard Sherman does both. He's a true shutdown corner, but he's also a highly effective ballhawk, and dangerous with the ball in his hands. It's rare for a CB to combine those skills the way Sherman does. I believe he was the most important, most impactful defensive player in the NFL this year.

Special Teams Player of the Year: Matthew Slater (NE)
Last Year: Blair Walsh (MIN)

I never envisioned naming one of the downfield wackos as Special Teams POY, but in a year with no real standouts at placekicker, punter, or returner, I can't pass up a gem like Matthew Slater. If you don't usually pay attention to special teams, watch New England in the playoffs and look for number 18. He's around the ball on every play.

Most Valuable Player: Peyton Manning (DEN)
Last Year: Peyton Manning (DEN)

My top 10 ballot:

1) Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
2) Drew Brees, QB, NO
3) Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
4) LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
5) Philip Rivers, QB, SD
6) Robert Mathis, LB, IND
7) Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
8) Richard Sherman, DB, SEA
9) Justin Smith, DL, SF
10) Calvin Johnson, WR, DET

Last year, Adrian Peterson won this award. He had a historic season, and I've always resisted the idea that wins and losses come down to the quarterback. But if you had put Manning on the Vikings and Peterson on the Broncos, rest of the roster stays the same ... the Vikings win more games and the Broncos win fewer. Because of how I interpret the term valuable, quarterbacks dominate this list. I didn't even include Tom Brady (NE), Nick Foles (PHI), Cam Newton (CAR), or Aaron Rodgers (GB), any of whom would be fine second-tier MVP candidates.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy (GB)
Last Year: Robert Griffin III (WAS)

This was a tough year to choose outstanding rookies, because a lot of first-year players had good seasons, but none really had a great season. There was no RG3 or Ndamukong Suh in this year's rookie class, but it also wasn't the kind of season where the winner is obvious because he's the only one who really played well.

I actually considered a trio of linemen for this award: center Travis Frederick (DAL), guard Kyle Long (CHI), and tackle D.J. Fluker (SD). Frederick in particular impresses me. Keenan Allen (SD) went over 1,000 yards receiving, while Cordarrelle Patterson (MIN) contributed on multiple levels: 158 rushing yards, 469 receiving yards, and 1,393 kickoff return yards, with 9 total TDs. He's the first player since Jacoby Ford in 2010 to score multiple TDs rushing, receiving, and returning, and one of only three in the last 40 years.

Patterson and Giovani Bernard (CIN) were the most dynamic offensive rookies in 2013. Bernard rushed for 695 yards and gained 514 receiving, the first rookie since Reggie Bush in '06 to go over 500 yards as both a rusher and receiver. The list of rookies to accomplish that feat is very short (10), and extremely impressive, including three Hall of Famers and only one dud. Seven of the previous nine had great careers, maybe eight depending on where Bush goes from here.

Bernard's 1,209 yards from scrimmage actually ranked third among rookie RBs, ahead of Zac Stacy (STL), but behind Le'Veon Bell (PIT) and Lacy. Bell missed the first three weeks with an injury, and he only averaged 3.5 yards per carry, but he re-invigorated Pittsburgh's offense. Lacy, though, brought a dimension to Green Bay's offense that the Packers hadn't seen at least since Ryan Grant, maybe not since Ahman Green's heyday. Lacy rushed for 1,178 yards (8th in NFL) despite missing almost two games because of an illegal hit. He contributed as a receiver, scored double-digit TDs, and took care of the ball (only 1 fumble in 319 touches).

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sheldon Richardson (NYJ)
Last Year: Casey Hayward (GB)

The Week 17 rushing TD didn't sway me. Richardson stabilized the Jets' line, creating opportunities for teammates like Muhammad Wilkerson, and helping a team that went 4-12 and lost Darrelle Revis double its win total and save Rex Ryan's job. Fellow rookie DTs Star Lotulelei (CAR), Kawann Short (CAR), and Chris Jones (NE) also had fine rookie years. Lotulelei and Short haven't gotten proper credit for their impact on Carolina's improved defense.

Kiko Alonso (BUF) and Alec Ogletree (STL) contributed in every aspect of defense. Alonso tallied 87 solo tackles, 2 sacks, a forced fumble, 2 FRs, 4 INTs, and 5 PDs. Ogletree, overlooked on a losing team in a small market, quietly finished his rookie year with 94 solos, 1.5 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, an interception returned 98 yards for a TD, and 10 PDs. There's a comparison to be drawn to Lavonte David's rookie season, and I suspect I might regret not choosing Ogletree as DROY.

Eric Reid (SF) contributed 6 takeaways, Desmond Trufant (ATL) defensed 19 passes, and Logan Ryan (NE) led all rookies with 5 INTs.

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid (KC)
Last Year: John Fox (DEN)

In recent weeks, Ron Rivera (CAR) has emerged as the likely front-runner for COY. Rivera helped his team by becoming more aggressive, but that was an overdue correction of a mistake. Carolina's biggest problem last year was Rivera himself, and just because he's not screwing up any more, that doesn't make him a great coach, it just makes him better than he was — on the verge of getting fired. Rivera deserves credit for addressing the problem, but he wasn't the Coach of the Year.

Three coaches who never had much of a chance to win the award, because the voters look for improvement, were Bill Belichick (NE), Jim Harbaugh (SF), and John Harbaugh (BAL). Belichick lost his two best defensive players early in the season, but guided Tom Brady and a motley crew to a 12-4 record and division title. The Niners, coming off a season that extended into February and dealing with significant injuries from Week 1, righted the ship after a 1-2 start, winning 11 of their last 13 games and qualifying for the playoffs for the third time in three years. After a tumultuous offseason in which the Ravens lost 8 of their 22 starters, I wrote in preseason that I'd be impressed if Baltimore won half its games. At 8-8, the Ravens missed the postseason, but they put up an awfully good fight.

The Cardinals went 10-6, but missed the playoffs, which probably kills Bruce Arians' (ARI) chance of winning the AP vote. But playing in the toughest division in the league, Arizona put together a far better season than anyone expected. The offseason additions of players like Karlos Dansby, Carson Palmer, and John Abraham helped, but Arians did a great job turning around a team that went 5-11 last year.

It's hard to do something different in the NFL, where there's so much pressure to conform. Chip Kelly (PHI) did something different, and led the Eagles to a division title. I admire that, but I'm not sold on Kelly's time-of-possession-doesn't-matter philosophy. I think getting LeSean McCoy and Jason Peters back would go a long way toward turning any team around.

All this leads me back to Andy Reid. The Chiefs lost five of their last seven games, after a 9-0 start, getting swept by division rivals Denver and San Diego. Reid was practically coronated as COY around Week 4, but the slow finish has significantly dulled his buzz. The Chiefs had talent, a lot more talent than last year's 2-14 record implied, but Reid gave the team confidence and led them to a playoff berth in his first year at the helm. Slow finish or not, it's an impressive accomplishment.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Mike Zimmer (CIN)
Last Year: Kyle Shanahan (WAS)

Zimmer is a perpetual candidate for this honor, one of the most respected defensive coordinators in the league. But he barely, barely edged a virtual unknown: Kevin Spencer (SD), the special teams coordinator for the San Diego Chargers. Punter Mike Scifres had his best season in years, while Seyi Ajirotutu, Andrew Gachkar, Darrell Stuckey, and Ladarius Green all ranked among my top special teamers this season. Only one other team, the 49ers (with C.J. Spillman and Kassim Osgood), had even two players graded that high. The Chargers had four. San Diego offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt is rumored to be a head coaching candidate, and he'd probably bring Spencer with him. The two worked together under Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh, then Spencer followed Whis to Arizona and San Diego. If I were an owner or GM interested in Whis, I'd want Spencer on staff as well.

Zimmer overcame the loss of his best player (DT Geno Atkins) and his top two CBs, leading a defense that ranked 3rd in yardage and 5th in scoring. Dean Pees (BAL) and Sean McDermott (CAR) also earned consideration. Some of the top offensive assistants are hard to honor, because we divert credit to the head coach, or in Denver, to the quarterback. Adam Gase (DEN) has coached Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, and Peyton Manning effectively, but he gets minimal credit for this year's record-breaking offense, because so much of the offense runs through Peyton.

2013 All-Pro Team

QB Peyton Manning, DEN
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI
FB John Kuhn, GB
WR Calvin Johnson, DET
WR Josh Gordon, CLE
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN
TE Vernon Davis, SF
TE Jason Witten, DAL
C Jonathan Goodwin, SF
G Logan Mankins, NE
G Andy Levitre, BUF
OT Jason Peters, PHI
OT Joe Staley, SF

DT Justin Smith, SF
DT Ndamukong Suh, DET
DE J.J. Watt, HOU
DE Robert Quinn, STL
OLB Robert Mathis, IND
OLB Lavonte David, TB
ILB Karlos Dansby, ARI
ILB NaVorro Bowman, SF
CB Richard Sherman, SEA
CB Alterraun Verner, TEN
CB Joe Haden, CLE
FS Earl Thomas, SEA
SS Eric Berry, KC

K Stephen Gostkowski, NE
P Mike Scifres, SD
KR Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
ST Matthew Slater, NE

Off POY — Peyton Manning, DEN
Def POY — Richard Sherman, SEA
ST POY — Matthew Slater, NE
MVP — Peyton Manning, DEN
Off Rookie — Eddie Lacy, GB
Def Rookie — Sheldon Richardson, NYJ
Coach — Andy Reid, KC
Assistant — Mike Zimmer, CIN

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions

INDIANAPOLIS def. Kansas City
PHILADELPHIA def. New Orleans
CINCINNATI def. San Diego
San Francisco def. GREEN BAY

The Colts/Chiefs matchup features the two weakest teams in the AFC playoffs. I'd pick the Chargers to beat either of them.

Super Bowl XLVIII: Seattle Seahawks over Denver Broncos

Boring prediction, I know. I almost went with the Patriots in the AFC — which isn't really any better — because I can't shake this feeling that Peyton Manning is the NFL's Cassandra, the greatest quarterback ever, but cursed not to receive that recognition because of repeated playoff failures. Von Miller's absence could easily keep Denver out of the Super Bowl.

Week 17 Power Rankings

Top 10

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Denver Broncos
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Arizona Cardinals
6. Carolina Panthers
7. New England Patriots
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. New Orleans Saints

These rankings are for right now, not a season summary. I know the Cowboys and Steelers are heartbroken, but the 10-6 Cardinals, who won 7 of their last 9 and beat the Seahawks in Seattle, were easily the best team not to make the playoffs this season.

Bottom Three

30. Oakland Raiders
31. Cleveland Browns
32. Houston Texans

The Browns have surpassed Oakland and Washington in the "Most Dysfunctional Franchise" designation. Their last three head coaches have lasted a combined five seasons. The idea that you can fairly judge a coach after just one season, especially when the team is explicitly rebuilding, is absurd. Unless Browns ownership knows that Rob Chudzinski went all Jerry Sandusky off the field, this is a reckless move that embarrasses the Cleveland Browns organization.

If I were a serious head coaching candidate, I probably would not accept a position in Cleveland or Washington. You're better off waiting a year and taking a job where you'll get a chance to succeed.

Tony Romo Memorial Week 17 Meltdown Award

1. Ryan Tannehill, for his 3-INT, 42.1 passer rating performance in a must-win home game against the Jets.

2. Joe Flacco, for his 3-INT, 49.7 passer rating performance in a critical game against the Bengals.

3 (tie). Andy Dalton, for throwing 4 INTs in that same game, and Ben Roethlisberger, for tossing 2 picks in a must-win game against the Browns.

I suppose it would be poetic to put Kyle Orton on the list, but I thought he looked good on Sunday night. The game-clinching interception was Romo-esque, and in a way Orton is the best candidate for a Romo Award, because he actually played really well before a critical error at the end. Tannehill and Flacco, in contrast, basically gave their games away.

Eli Manning, who left the Washington/Giants game at halftime with an injury, actually posted the highest passer rating (59.7) of the three QBs in that game. Kirk Cousins was awful (19-of-49, 2 INTs), and Curtis Painter managed a passer rating of zero.

Click here for last week's article.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:20 PM | Comments (0)

December 30, 2013

SEC's Run in the BCS Will End With FSU

All good things must come to an end, and I suppose the same is true for bad things, as well. A week from today, the much maligned Bowl Championship Series will come to a close when No. 2 Auburn faces No. 1 Florida State in the National Championship Game. Not only will the BCS end, so will the Southeastern Conference's string of seven straight national titles.

Now unlike Joe Namath or Matt Hasselbeck, I'm not one who usually makes bold predictions about the outcomes of football games, but in this case I have a strong feeling that Florida State will emerge as the top team in college football come next Monday night. I'm about as sure of this as I was last year when I said that Notre Dame would get rolled by Alabama, and I'll tell you why. Here's a brief breakdown of the two teams in five major categories.

Quarterback — Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston threw for 3,820 yards, 38 TDs, and 10 interceptions, and ran for another 193 yards and 4 scores for the Seminoles. Auburn's Nick Marshall had less than half that many yards passing (1,759) and scoring tosses (12), but only 5 picks. However, he rushed for more than a thousand yards (1,023) with 12 TDs. While Marshall can definitely keep defenses honest with his feet, the fact that he has no real weapons at wideout makes Auburn a fairly one-dimensional team. Meanwhile, Winston is considered to be the best player in the country and can hurt the opposition with both his arm and his feet, even though his rushing stats don't reflect that. Advantage: Florida State.

Running back — Along with Marshall, the Tigers have another thousand-yard rusher in Tre Mason, who also scored one less touchdown than Marshall did both passing and running. Corey Grant and Cameron Artis-Payne ran for more than 600 yards and 6 TDs apiece, helping lead Auburn to the top rushing team in the nation. The 'Noles rely mainly on Devonta Freeman to carry the rock, along with Karlos Williams and James Wilder, Jr., although none rushed for more than a thousand yards and only 32 TDs between them. Advantage: Auburn.

Receiver — Thanks to the pass-oriented offense that Florida State runs, the Seminoles boast three receivers with nearly 1,000 yards each — Rashad Greene (981), Kelvin Benjamin (957), and Kenny Shaw (929) — and a collective 29 scores, and are deep threats with longest catches of more than 50 yards each. Auburn, with its more run-heavy offense, ranks near the bottom in the nation in passing offense and depends mainly on Sammie Coates to catch passes. Coates has 841 yards receiving with 7 scores, while the next closest receiver has less than 300 yards and only 2 TDs. Advantage: Florida State.

Defense — Florida State has the No. 3 defense in the nation overall, allowing only 268 yards per game, and is No. 1 in points allowed at 10. Auburn is way down the list in both categories at No. 88 in total defense (423 yard allowed per game) and 36th in scoring defense at 24 points per game. FSU also leads the nation in interceptions with 25 and is No. 26 in sacks with 33. Auburn is No. 44 in sacks with 28 and 49th in picks with 13. Advantage: Florida State.

Body of Work — Checking the two teams' season results, Florida State was one of the most dominant teams in the country. while Auburn struggled at times to win games. The Seminoles scored less than 41 points only once and allowed 7 or less points in seven games. The closest game they played was a 14-point win over Boston College in late September. On the other side, Auburn lost a game, barely beat lesser opponents like Washington State and Mississippi State, and got lucky against both Georgia and Alabama. Florida State's average margin of victory was about 42 points, while Auburn's was just 16. Advantage: Florida State.

In just these five categories, Florida State is clearly the better team and the oddsmakers seem to agree as most Vegas lines have the 'Noles favored by about 8 points. And while the SEC's title streak is on the line, the assertion that the conference is the most dominate one in the country may start to wane a bit with an FSU win.

Many college football fans agree that if a playoff was in place this year, Alabama would probably win through to take another national championship back to Tuscaloosa. However, since the team that a lot of folks believe is still the best lost in horrible fashion to Auburn, a lot of folks also believe that the SEC's streak will come to an end. The conference has won every national championship since the BCS installed a standalone title game eight seasons ago, and its hopes for a clean sweep in the five-game BCS era ride on an Auburn upset.

Personally, I still would have loved to see an Alabama/Oregon matchup for all the marbles (too bad the Sugar Bowl people couldn't have brokered a deal to get the Ducks to New Orleans), and maybe something like that will materialize in next year's playoff format (or future expansion — don't worry, it'll come).

But for this year, we get arguably the best team in the country against arguably the luckiest team in the country, and just like last year, the best team will show itself mighty on the field and walk away with the title. Plus, it seems only fitting that the one school that played in the first three BCS-era championship games — winning one — would close this chapter of college football history with a national title. Florida State appears to be a team destined to win it all.

Posted by Adam Russell at 11:49 AM | Comments (0)

December 27, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Carolina @ Atlanta (+7)

The Panthers clinched a playoff spot with a thrilling 17-13 win over the Saints. Cam Newton hit Domenik Hixon for a 14-yard score with 23 seconds left. With a win in Atlanta, Carolina clinches the NFC South and a first-round bye.

"It's been nearly a year," Cam Newton said, "but Falcons' fans will finally get what they've been waiting for — a meaningful game in Atlanta.

Luke Kuechly wreaks havoc on the Falcons, with 17 tackles, and interception, a sack, 5 golden rings, 4 passes defended, 3 french hens, 2 turtle doves, and a Panther in the 2 seed.

Carolina wins, 27-23.

Green Bay @ Chicago (-4)

The 7-7-1 Packers head to Soldier Field to face the 8-7 Bears, who were blown out 54-11 in Philadelphia last week. The winner is the NFC North champion, while the loser is out of the playoffs.

"Indeed," Mark Trestman said. "It's winner take all. And by 'all,' I mean the division title and the subsequent beating the following week in the wild card round. At home, no less.

"I've already named Jay Cutler the starter for Sunday's game. The reason for the early decision was two-fold: it allows Jay to prepare, and it allows Josh McCown to prepare for the worst."

Chicago wins, 29-27.

Baltimore @Cincinnati (-5½)

The Patriots blasted the Ravens 41-7 in Baltimore, as Joe Flacco struggled with 2 interceptions.

"The Patriots took us to school," Flacco said. "And that school is known as 'Fall So Hard University.'

"My left knee is okay. In fact, it feels like a million dollars. That means the rest of me feels like $119 million."

The Bengals have clinched the AFC North and could grab a first-round bye with a win and a New England loss to Buffalo.

"As he has all year," Marvin Lewis said, "Andy Dalton followed a subpar game with a good game. I'm just praying his 'Jekyl and Hyde' act doesn't become a 'run and hide' act in the playoffs."

Cincinnati wins, 23-20.

Houston @ Tennessee (-6½)

With a loss to the Titans, or a Redskins win over the Giants, the Texans would clinch the first pick in the 2014 NFL draft. So don't expect much of an effort at LP Field from Houston.

"I think it's ludicrous to think we won't try our hardest," Wade Phillips said. "Despite this being a game between Houston and Tennessee, there's no 'Oilers.' And, if there's no 'Oilers,' there's no oil, and therefore, no 'tankers.'

"Besides, Gary Kubiak's gone, so we don't expect anyone to lay down."

Houston goes belly-up, paying homage to their former coach with a half-hearted effort.

Titans win, 27-13.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-11½)

The Colts have already clinched the AFC South, and could earn a first-round bye with a win over the Jaguars and both a New England and Cincinnati loss.

"It would be great to have an extra week of rest," Andrew Luck said. "But if you really want to talk 'extra-weak,' look no further than our AFC South schedule.

"We'll probably rest many of our starters," Chuck Pagano said. "In other words, Trent Richardson will start. Trent's paltry rushing statistics don't do him justice. He makes things happen, like two yards, and a cloud of dust."

Indianapolis wins, 27-22.

NY Jets @ Miami (-4)

Despite laying a 19-0 egg in Buffalo last week, the Dolphins can still make the playoffs if they beat the Jets and the Ravens lose at Cincinnati or the Chargers beat the Chiefs.

"Hey," Joe Philbin said, "dolphins don't lay eggs, and they're not fish. So don't tell me something 'fishy' is going on in the Miami locker room.

"But I can't worry about what goes on in the Chargers and Bengals locker rooms. I'm barely aware of what goes on in my own. Whatever the case, we'll need help to make the playoffs. Oddly enough, the two Dolphins that need the most help aren't even on the roster."

The Dolphins get an inspirational phone call from Jonathan Martin, who urges the team to "Put up or shut up." For Miami, the irony is lost, and so is the game.

New York wins, 19-17.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-3)

Is Jim Schwartz on his way out in Detroit? After last week's 23-20 overtime loss to the Giants, the Lions have lost three in a row and five of six.

"Will I be fired," Schwartz said, "or will I return as head coach? I'm not sure even a coin toss could decide it, because I'm not worth a 'flip.'

"I don't mind fans booing me. That lets me know they care. But I wouldn't classify this season as a failure. Why? Because that's another thing I'm not qualified to do."

Detroit wins, 35-31.

Buffalo @ New England (-8½)

The Pats hammered the Ravens 41-7 in Baltimore last week, and would clinch the AFC's second seed with a win over the Bills.

"Are the Ravens acquainted with Aaron Hernandez?" Tom Brady said. "Because they showed up dead.

"We certainly won't take the Bills for granted. How can you? They've been to four Super Bowls, so they've been there. They just haven't done that."

New England wins, 31-17.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-12½)

After last week's 17-13 loss in Carolina, the Saints must beat Tampa to secure the NFC's final wild card spot. The Saints could also capture the NFC South title with a win and a Panthers loss in Atlanta.

"We're playing for the playoffs," Sean Payton said, "while the Bucs are playing for draft position. They might have a shot at South Carolina's Jadaveon Clowney. He's quite a player, I hear. I sometimes fantasize that Jadaveon becomes a Saint. It would be really cool for someone in New Orleans to say 'Heck of a job, Clowney.'"

New Orleans wins, 27-20.

Washington @ NY Giants (-3½)

While the Cowboys and Eagles square off for the NFC East title, the Giants host the Redskins in a game in which the stakes are nil.

"Mike Shanahan shut down Robert Griffin for health reasons," Eli Manning said. "Obviously, he has reservations about starting Griffin. But I'd like to know if he consulted with a doctor. And if so, what doctor? Better yet, which doctor? In any case, it may take some frontier medicine for Shanahan to keep his job."

New York wins, 30-23.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-7)

The Steelers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 38-31 win in Green Bay last week. But they'll need help. In order to be the AFC's No. 6 seed, the Steelers need a win and losses by Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego.

"I'll gladly trade one win for three losses," Mike Tomlin said. "The Browns would, too. That's why they'll end up with a 4-12 record."

Pittsburgh wins, 30-24.

Denver @ Oakland (+12)

Peyton Manning threw 4 touchdowns in Denver's 37-13 win in Houston, breaking the NFL record with his 51st touchdown pass of the year. The Broncos can clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win in Oakland.

"Records don't mean much to me," Manning said, "especially 'broken records.' So, let's keep the talk of my playoff record to a minimum, because it sounds like a broken record.

"There's one thing standing between us and home-field advantage. And it's the Raiders. But when you're standing in the Black Hole, it's hard to keep your head above water, especially with a 4-11 record."

Denver wins, 37-21.

San Francisco @ Arizona (+3)

Despite four Carson Palmer interceptions, the Cardinals stunned the Seahawks 17-10 in Seattle. The win kept Arizona's playoff chances alive; they need a win and a New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay.

"University of Phoenix Stadium has a fully-retractable natural grass playing surface," Palmer said. "So, even if we win, we could still have the rug pulled out from under us."

Arizona wins, 27-20.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-10)

The Chargers are alive for a playoff spot after a win over the Raiders last week, while the Dolphins and Ravens both lost. If the Chargers beat the Chiefs, and the Dolphins and Ravens lose again, San Diego earns the AFC's final wild card spot.

"Sadly," Philip Rivers said, "we don't control our own destiny. And that really upsets me, because, as a practicing Catholic and father of seven children, I do believe in 'berth' control."

San Diego wins, 31-16.

St. Louis @ Seattle (-10)

The Seahawks lost 17-10 at CenturyLink Field, suffering their first home loss since December of 2011. Seattle clinches the NFC West with a win over the Rams.

"It was a tough week for us," Pete Carroll said, "and a tough week for Brandon Browner. Brandon was suspended indefinitely after losing his appeal for violating the league's substance abuse policy. I told Brandon to keep his chin up. Here in Seattle, we have a saying. It goes: 'Things could always be worse; you could be dating Hope Solo.'"

Seattle wins, 22-15.

Philadelphia @ Dallas (+6½)

Tony Romo's 10-yard touchdown pass to DeMarco Murray with 1:08 left gave the Cowboys a 24-23 win over Washington. The winner of Sunday's Philadelphia/Dallas showdown takes the NFC East title.

"Unfortunately, Romo said, "I'm out with an injured back that will require surgery. It's not a new injury; it's been bothering me for a while. Not only is it painful, it also limits my ability to grasp objects, because, as everyone knows, I'm not 'clutch' anything."

Philadelphia wins, 30-27.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:55 PM | Comments (0)

December 26, 2013

The New Schools of Division 1

I'm on record as loving the gluttony of college sports, the sheer number of teams, conferences, and possible matchups, and nothing sates that gluttony like college basketball, which is probably where my sports nerdery is at my nerdiest (what do you mean you don't know that Utah Valley's colors are green and gold and their nickname is the Wolverines?)

There are 351 Division 1 college basketball programs, including four new ones this year. If you aspire to my level of geekery, you should get familiar with them. So here now are thumbnails of the new ones.

ABILENE CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY

Location: Abilene, Texas

Enrollment: 4,461

Nickname: Wildcats

Colors: Purple and White

Were they prepped for D1 by dominating D2 last year? No. They finished 6-12 in the Lone Star conference, good for next-to-last place, and 12-14 overall. They had not made the D2 tournament since 1999.

How're they doin'? Not so hot. They're 5-8, but all five of those wins are against D2 or lower opponents. They played a nice game against TCU, losing by just 7, and all of their other games against D1 schools have been double-digit losses. They also lost to D2 West Alabama. They are members of the Southland Conference.

UNIVERSITY OF THE INCARNATE WORD

Location: San Antonio, Texas

Enrollment: 6,404

Nickname: Cardinals

Colors: Red and Black

Were they prepped for D1 by dominating D2 last year? No. They are another Lone State Conference-to-Southland Conference school like Abilene Christian. They were 9-9, 14-14 in their last year in the Lone Stare and D2.

How're they doin'? Incomplete. Okay, I'm not sure this should even be allowed for schools transitioning into D1. They are 10-1, and all 10 of those victories are over schools that are D2 or lower. So who knows how good they are? Well, we do know they can't be that great, but lordy, how are you going to get ready for your first D1 conference slate if you only play schools like "Open Bible College" in the meantime? I say, each D1 school can schedule no more than 5 lower-level schools and I think I'm being generous at that.

UMASS-LOWELL

Location: Lowell, Massachusetts

Enrollment: 16,969

Nickname: River Hawks

Colors: Persian Red, Pigment Blue, and White. PIGMENT BLUE?! Is that in the same color family as Shade Green and Hue Yellow?

Were they prepped for D1 by dominating D2 last year? Yes! Well, sort of. They did make the D2 tournament, although they were knocked out in the first round. Actually they made the last four D2 tourneys and were knocked out of the first round in all of them. They finished 19-10 last year.

How're they doin'? The worst of the lot. 1-11, that win was against a non-D1 school, and they haven't come closer than 9 against any of the D1 schools they have played. But bless them for actually playing them. Ken Pomeroy's ranking has them 347th in the nation, ahead of only Grambling, Alcorn State, Southern Utah, and South Carolina State.

GRAND CANYON UNIVERSITY

Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Enrollment: 6,500

Nickname: Antelopes (if you're cool though, you'll just say 'lopes).

Colors: Purple, Black, and White

Were they prepped for D1 by dominating D2 last year? Like UMass-Lowell, they have a strong pedigree of recent if not overwhelming success. They were 23-8 last year but got bounced in the first round of the D2 Big Dance for the second year in a row.

How're they doin'? Well, first, there is a bit of controversy and intrigue around GCU. First of all, they are taking their place in the smoldering ruins of the Western Athletic Conference, which you and I know and love as the WAC. Second, they are unique in D1 as being a for-profit school, which rankles some people so greatly that several Pac 12 coaches and admins made statements condemning their inclusion in D1. Third, they showed the door to their quite successful coach, Russ Pennell, so they could bring in a "name," that name being Thunder Dan Majerle.

So it's perhaps no surprise that they are faring far better than their plebe peers. They are 5-6 and have notched two wins so far (compared to the other three's collective zero) against D1 competition, over Lamar and Savannah State. The Pomeroy rankings have them in the mid-250s, ahead of such schools as Rice, Tulane, and all three service academies. Expect to hear about these controversies, especially the for-profit one, if Grand Canyon starts making national noise once they are eligible for the tournament in 2017.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 5:44 PM | Comments (0)

The Greatest Player of All-Time Debate

Is it Rod Laver, Pete Sampras, Bjorn Borg, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer? Will Novak Djokovic soon be added to the list? In any case, the Greatest of All-Time (GOAT) debate has been alive since the mid-1990s and furiously kicking since the second half of the 2000s. While the debate has mobilized some intriguing research with regards to the history of men's tennis in the Open era and stirred considerable passion for the sport, the partisanship in the debate has in many ways hurt the objectivity of the public opinion.

The most glaring examples of this "my-guy-must-be-the-greatest" anxiety come in the form of invented or overrated categories that have, in reality, no business in the GOAT debate if reason and objectivity were to prevail. This article will not make a case for any one player; instead, it will attempt to foreground the problems of partisanship's over-involvement in the debate by pinpointing to a few of those artificially created measuring sticks.

Davis Cup Titles

This is one category that has no place in the GOAT debate, yet through the "if-repeated-enough-people-will-swallow" tactic, it has made its way into the debate as many times as it should have never been a part of it. First of all, no player wins the Davis Cup, officially or unofficially. In the tennis record books, you don't see that "Borg has won the Davis Cup"; instead, it reads that Sweden has won it. Second, this category is not only inaccurate, but also non-existent. It was born out of the desire of John McEnroe fans back in the early 1980s to lift their player above his main American rival, Jimmy Connors, who regularly snubbed the Davis Cup, and further strengthened in the late 2000s by the wishes of the fans of players other than Federer, with the aim to place their chosen player ahead of Federer in the debate.

There is no doubt that when a player wins both his singles and doubles matches, he plays a major role in his team's march to the Davis Cup title (for example, Borg in 1975, and John McEnroe in 1982), but "he" does not win the title! There are four players and a captain on the team, contributing to the victory, and the country's name goes on the records as having won the title. A player wins two matches maximum by himself, which is neither enough to win a single tie nor to win a title.

The fans of this category somehow try to paint a portrait that shows their man winning the tie/title by themselves, which shows disrespect to the team and the country since on the Cup the country's name is carved and not the player's name. It also inaccurately assumes that a particular doubles competition — that of the Davis Cup encounter on the middle Saturday — somehow has more value than any other doubles matches or titles. Doubles play no role in the GOAT debate. If it did, one would need to include Bob Bryan and Mike Bryan individually in the debate since they would then have more Slam titles to their names than Pete Sampras or Rafael Nadal and more Grand Slams to their names than any other player in the Open era (not to mention their Davis Cup titles — not the USA's!), and John McEnroe would be looking better than ever at 16 Slam titles, including several Davis Cup titles.

But this is not how the GOAT debate operates because doubles' results are not included in the debate. McEnroe's doubles titles do not get weighed in when discussing his GOAT status versus Borg or Andre Agassi. Whether doubles should be included or not, that is a debate for another day, but the way the GOAT debate is conducted today, doubles are basically a non-factor, thus so should the doubles match in Davis Cup, effectively erasing any illusion that a single player wins the Davis Cup. But again, one does not have to go that far to see that Davis Cup titles have no place as a measuring category in the GOAT debate. As noted earlier, it is a category that does not exist. A country, not a player, wins the Davis Cup, and so it goes into the records, period.

Slam Titles

This is the most ironic category in the sense that the same group of experts who pushed this category's rise to the dominant category in the determination of the GOAT probably now regret that they ever did it. While this is certainly not an invented category and should definitely contribute to determining the GOAT, the impression that exists today that this has always been the determinant category could not be more false.

In the 1970s and 1980s, accolades such as the number of Slams won in succession, the amount of time spent at No. 1, and achieving the Grand Slam outclassed the number of Slams won as far as the players and fans were concerned. From mid-1970s to mid-1980s, most top players did not even play the Australian Open, simply because its timing was odd and it was considered too far away. Borg openly said that he would only consider playing the Australian Open if he won the U.S. Open and had a chance to complete the Grand Slam. He never won the U.S. Open, thus he never played the Australian Open, except one time in 1973 as a youngster. Thus, he won 11 Slams in eight years, playing only three Slams per year. McEnroe played the Australian Open for the first time in 1983, and Jimmy Connors never played it after 1975.

The importance of Slam titles got put on a pedestal when Pete Sampras began collecting Slam titles in the 1990s. The American media galvanized its viewers once they saw that one of their own could come out of the shadows of Borg and Laver that Connors and McEnroe could never quite surpass, and grab the GOAT title by focusing on the number of Slams. The likes of Bud Collins, Brad Gilbert, Patrick McEnroe, and Mary Carillo quickly reduced all statistics-related discourse to the number of Slam titles.

In this tactic, they saw the means to quicken the process of officially naming their man the GOAT. As soon as Sampras surpassed Borg's 11 Slam titles, he was essentially declared the GOAT; the 13th and 14th titles were the icing on the cake. The American media clung on the number of Slam titles as long as it could, in the name of keeping an American as the GOAT. The reality was that by the time Roger Federer won his 12th and 13th Slam titles, his resume was already superior to that of Sampras, including titles on a surface that Sampras never came close to mastering. But all that mattered was the number 14, and the American media reminded the public at each opportunity, through eye-catching graphics and colorful vocabulary, that Sampras was still the GOAT due to his 14 Slam titles.

The irony is, several years later, what Federer fans considered a farcical tactic to keep their man behind Sampras in the GOAT debate became their biggest asset when their man began collecting loss after loss against his main rival Nadal. It seems that in the next couple of years, the number of Slams will remain Federer fans' biggest ally. Once again, the partisanship in the GOAT debate has accorded a category more importance than it deserves. The number of Slams was not the most important category for two and a half decades into the Open era.

Even after two decades of a powerful push by the American-led tennis media, the number of Slams should still not be the central factor in determining the GOAT. Sampras should not have kept the GOAT status when Federer had 12 or 13 Slam Titles, and Federer should not keep the GOAT status simply because Nadal's titles (possibly) remain below 17. On a similar note, I would not hesitate to already put Nadal ahead of Sampras, albeit by a small margin, even though the latter has more Slam titles to his name. Nadal's ability to win on all surfaces and his career Grand Slam, along with his record as the most Masters Series titles should at least be enough to trump Sampras' one more Slam title over Nadal.

Head-to-Head

While this category shows who you may pick in a match between two players if your life depended on it, it does not say much about which player should be considered in a higher status than the other in the GOAT debate. A given player becomes great not by consistently beating one player, but by consistently outperforming the rest of the field against which he is competing. Once again, this is an invented category that Nadal fans cling on to due to their player's fantastic head-to-head record against Roger Federer.

Currently, it will matter in roundtable debates since both players are active and their fans can banter on message boards and blogs. But tennis historiography shows that 20 years from now it will matter very little. Guillermo Vilas, the player that history considers as one of the top-five clay court players in the Open era, had a 5-8 record on clay against Manuel Orantes, with one of the five wins coming in a walk-over, and another on an abandoned match.

Despite this one-sided head-to-head record, history would hardly consider Orantes a better clay-court player than Vilas. Would anybody consider Vitas Gerulaitis ahead of Ilie Nastase in the ranking of the best players in the Open era? I hardly doubt it and so would most tennis historians. Yet, Gerulaitis had a crushing 10-1 record against Nastase, simply because he would endlessly chip-and-charge to Nastase's backhand force 'Nasty' to use his weakest shot to pass him, the one-handed backhand topspin off of a slice that stays extremely low. The bottom line is that history accords, and rightfully so, very little importance to the head-to-head record between two players. Tennis rankings are not determined by how well a specific player does against another specific player; they are determined by how a player performs against the rest of the ensemble of ATP players.

I am sure others can find more frivolous, overrated, or invented "false" categories if needed. The truth is that partisanship consistently hurts the older players on the hand — how many Laver fans or Borg fans remain today compared to Nadal, Federer, or Djokovic fans? — and hinders analysis based on facts by diluting the debate with unhealthy emotions and inaccurate (and sometimes false!) data on the other. It is understandable that fans of particular players fall into this trap. After all, they have the right to be emotional, which is a major component of fandom. However, it is utterly worrisome that the leading figures in the tennis media fall into this trap and wrongly influence the public opinion.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 12:38 PM | Comments (1)

December 24, 2013

NFL Playoff Scenarios For Week 17

Five Quick Hits

* Two items on the Denver Broncos: Von Miller is out for the season, and Peyton Manning broke the single-season TD record. Miller is a big loss, and this could open the door for an underdog in the AFC. Manning is the best quarterback I've ever seen, and I'm happy for him, but single-season passing records have gotten pretty meaningless. He'll probably extend the record in Week 17, maybe to the point that it lasts a while, but it's just not a big deal.

* Denver leads the NFL in points, yards, and a bunch of other offensive categories. The team only needs 18 points in the final week to set a single-season scoring record. The Broncos have done all this with Manning at QB, but can you imagine how great they'd be if they still had Tim Tebow?

* Steve Smith sprained his PCL and is doubtful for Week 17. Carolina is on track for a first-round bye in the playoffs, and Smith probably will be ready by then.

* Every team in the NFC West has outscored its opponents, and three of them have double-digit wins. Strongest division in football, easily.

* Farewell, Candlestick Park. The dramatic finish on Monday night was a perfect send-off for one of the NFL's most legendary stadiums.

* * *

Let's once again applaud NFL schedule-makers. The most exciting regular-season game is Week 17, division rivals, winner's in the playoffs, loser goes home. We have TWO of those this year. Sweet.

There are four playoff spots yet to be filled: the NFC North champion, the NFC East champion, and the final wild card in both conferences. There are a few other things to work out, but most of it is shuffling of teams who are already in. Homefield advantage and first-round byes are great, but not nearly as compelling as a simple IN or OUT.

AFC 6th Seed

Heading into the final week of the season, there are four teams still alive for this one spot. None can get in by winning a division, and the other wild card is already spoken for (Kansas City). Let's look at their chances, in ascending order of probability:

Pittsburgh Steelers — They're mathematically alive, but it's going to be really tough. Pittsburgh has to beat the Browns, but it also needs the Chargers, Ravens, and Dolphins to all lose. It could happen. The Steelers are 7-point favorites.

San Diego Chargers — They get in with a win over the Chiefs, plus losses by both Baltimore and Miami. The Chargers are double-digit favorites to beat Kansas City. The Chiefs are reeling, the game's in San Diego, the Chargers beat them in KC last month, and the Chiefs have nothing to play for — they're the fifth seed no matter what. San Diego needs the Ravens and Dolphins to lose, and should know by kickoff whether or not it still has a chance.

Baltimore Ravens — The only team that can lose in Week 17 and still get that last wild card. If the Steelers, Chargers, and Dolphins all lose, the Ravens are in. More realistically, they'll get in with a win and a loss by either the Chargers or Dolphins. They Ravens are 5½-point underdogs at Cincinnati. The Bengals are 7-0 at home, while the Ravens are 2-5 on the road. It's actually a pretty desperate situation. Baltimore is an underdog, and the Chargers and Dolphins are heavy favorites, so the Ravens need two upsets to make the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins — Right now, they're the best bet to get in. If they beat the Jets, and the Chargers win or the Ravens lose, Miami is in. The Dolphins are 6½-point favorites, and the game is in Miami. The Dolphins blew an opportunity in Buffalo on Sunday, but the December weather in Buffalo is frightful, and in Florida it's delightful. Ryan Tannehill got a little banged up over the weekend, but it doesn't appear to be a big deal. Miami crushed the Jets, 23-3, on the road earlier this month. If they win the rematch at home, they're probably in. The Chargers are favorites and the Ravens are underdogs, so if Miami wins, both upsets would need to go down for them to miss the postseason.

My pick: Miami. The Dolphins need to win, but the worst-case scenario is probably that they and the Ravens win, then the Chargers get all bummed out and lose at home, sending Baltimore the playoffs. I don't see it happening.

NFC's Final Wild Card

Five NFC teams have clinched playoff berths, but no one's position is secure yet. None of the divisions have been clinched, so no one's guaranteed of a first-round bye.

Carolina Panthers — The Panthers are in the playoffs, but if they lose in Week 17, and the Saints win, New Orleans will win the NFC South, the 2nd seed, and a first-round bye, while Carolina would get a wild card.

New Orleans Saints — They can still win their division (see above), but if they lose to the Buccaneers, and the Cardinals beat San Francisco, they'd be out of the playoffs. The Saints are 13-point favorites.

Seattle Seahawks — The Seahawks are in the playoffs, but if they lose in Week 17, and the 49ers win, San Francisco will win the NFC West and a first-round bye, while Seattle would get a wild card.

San Francisco 49ers — They're assured of a playoff spot, but it's not clear which one. If the Niners win, they can actually get the top seed in the NFC, and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, if both the Seahawks and Panthers lose. That is not likely.

Arizona Cardinals — If they beat the 49ers, and the Saints lose to Tampa Bay, Arizona would earn a wild card.

There are some further machinations as far as seeding and exact order, but that's the nuts and bolts of who gets in.

My pick: New Orleans. The Panthers win the South, Seahawks win the West, 49ers and Saints gets the wild cards. New Orleans would need to lose a massive upset, and the Cardinals win a tough game, for the Saints to miss out on that last slot. The one I'd keep an eye on, actually, is Carolina at Atlanta. Roddy White is healthy, Steve Smith is not, and the Falcons gave San Francisco a tough game on Monday night, plus the game's in Atlanta. If Carolina loses, it could end up having to play in the first round.

NFC North

Three weeks ago, the Lions had this thing. They had just beaten Green Bay, going a game-and-a-half up on the Packers, and they were a game ahead of the Bears, with a season sweep to win any tiebreaker. They had it. They looked even better halfway through the season. But after a 40-10 revenge win over Green Bay, the Lions have dropped three straight, including home losses to the Ravens and Giants. They're mathematically eliminated from playoff contention now.

Green Bay Packers — They win the division with a Week 17 victory at Chicago.

Chicago Bears — They win the division with a Week 17 win or tie.

No line has been released yet, because it's not clear whether or not Aaron Rodgers will start for the Packers. The Bears won their first matchup, in Green Bay, but Rodgers got hurt in the first quarter and was replaced by Seneca Wallace. Chicago's defense is awful, and the offense doesn't look smooth with Jay Cutler under center. If Rodgers is 100% and plays like it, you'd expect Green Bay to win. Eddie Lacy is questionable, too, but the early guess is he'll give it a go.

My pick: Chicago. I expect Rodgers to play, but it's his first game in two months, and he's got to be rusty. He's facing a bad defense, but in cold weather, on the road, and without some of the receiving weapons he's used to. The Bears just got embarrassed, and I suspect they'll bounce back.

NFC East

The big story here, suddenly, is Tony Romo. He has a herniated disk and is done for the season. He won't play against the Eagles in Week 17, and he won't play in the postseason even if Dallas wins. I understand that Romo has made a lot of mistakes at the end of big games, but this choker reputation, the idea that he's soft ... I don't get it. Remember a couple years ago when Romo led the Cowboys to a late win even though he had broken ribs and a punctured lung? This weekend, he led Dallas to a season-saving, last-minute victory, on the road against a major rival — while playing with a season-ending back injury. He's tough.

Romo is a gunslinger, like Jay Cutler or Brett Favre or Eli Manning. All of those guys have thrown some awful interceptions at critical moments. That style of quarterback, it happens. I don't get why Romo has been singled out.

The good news for Dallas is that it has a capable backup with playoff experience: Kyle Orton. Romo is a top-10 QB, and Orton is not, but he's got all week to prepare, the game's at home, and he and his teammates know he can play.

Dallas Cowboys — They win the division with a Week 17 victory over Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Eagles — They win the division with a Week 17 win or tie.

These teams met in Philadelphia in Week 7, and the Cowboys won 17-3. If they hold the Eagles to three points again, I will buy a hat and eat it. Since that game, every opponent has scored more than 20 points, two of them more than 40. Altogether, the Cowboys' last eight opponents averaged 31.5 points. The Eagles have scored at least 30 for three weeks in a row, including their 54-point romp against the Bears on Sunday night. The opening lines had Philly favored by 1, which jumped to 7 when Romo was ruled out, and I suspect it will go even higher before Sunday. The Cowboys are big underdogs.

My pick: Philadelphia. Neither of these teams has shown a huge homefield advantage, but the Eagles are the hotter team right now, and the Cowboys are minus their starting quarterback. This is the third straight season Dallas has a division title on the line in Week 17, and I'm betting it's the third in a row they lose, this time without any mistakes from Tony Romo.

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Top 10

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Denver Broncos
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Arizona Cardinals
6. Carolina Panthers
7. New England Patriots
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. New Orleans Saints

These rankings are for right now, not a season summary, and the Saints have lost three of their last four — only one of the losses was close. The Rams beat them by double-digits, and the Seahawks positively humiliated them, 34-7 on national television in Week 13. It's probably just because four of their last five have been road games, but this is the wrong time of year to slump.

Bottom Three

30. Oakland Raiders
31. Cleveland Browns
32. Houston Texans

Washington has dropped seven in a row, but escapes the bottom three after back-to-back one-point losses. Moral victories are worth something in this part of the rankings. The Raiders have lost by double-digits three weeks in a row, while Cleveland has lost six straight, including this week's 24-13 defeat against the Jets.

Click here for the NFL Week 15 Report, focusing on the quarterback changes in Chicago (Josh McCown to Jay Cutler) and Washington (Robert Griffin III to Kirk Cousins).

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:03 PM | Comments (0)

December 23, 2013

The Dominoes of December

When USC fired head coach Lane Kiffin in September, it initiated a series of coaching changes across the country. Here's how and why the dominoes fell from Los Angeles to Jonesboro and everywhere in between.

Home — Steve Sarkisian leaves Washington for USC

For many, Sarkisian's return to Southern California began the September morning USC Athletic Director Pat Haden left the baggage of Kiffin's career at LAX. But in reality, this reunion course was charted much earlier.

Sarkisian and Kiffin were, of course, the star pupils during Pete Carroll's glorious revival at SC. In a time when gimmicky offenses produced too-good-to-be-true stats, the Trojan offenses of the mid-2000s used a pro-style system to generate solid, sustainable returns.

As the offensive masterminds, the two assistants earned a bevy of overtures to become head coaches elsewhere. However, while Kiffin burned through his stock of star-matter with explosive brashness, Sarkisian planned for longevity.

Rather than jump to an NFL organization notorious for dysfunction or a spiraling program a cultural world away as Kiffin did, Sarkisian bid his time before accepting an opportunity in a familiar setting. Like USC in the 1990s, the Washington Sarkisian found was a big-market Pac-10 school mired in losing despite a rich football tradition and a beneficial recruiting position. The match of coach and program seemed wildly congruous.

But, flashing forward to the present, Sarkisian couldn't replicate the dreamy heights he saw with Carroll. While his tenure saw immediate improvement from the disastrous days of Ty Willingham, the troubling signs of stagnation persisted in recent years as Oregon dominated regionally and Stanford rose meteorically on Sarkisian's watch. Seven or eight wins seemed as good as it could get.

Meanwhile, scarred by postseason bans and the tumult of Kiffin's reign, Trojan Nation needed some stability and a connection to its recent-yet-distant excellence. For a proud, front-running fan base, the "good" Carroll pupil held serious appeal. Nothing in sports sells like nostalgia, and with the mid-2000s in mind, Sarkisian returned to SC.

There's a temporal gravity born of success. Our memories smooth over the outlying rough patches of our best days and stoke the desire to recreate them. No matter where our lives take us or how much time separates us, the places where we were happiest always tug on us.

And that is why Sarkisian's replacement is in for a fight.

Courage — Chris Peterson leaves Boise State for Washington

The literature of America is redundant with mismatches. Watch our movies, read our books, or play our video games, and you will be bombarded with underdogs defying their odds.

For the better part of a decade, the Boise State Broncos have been the college football canvas upon which this narrative has been grafted. And during that span, their head coach was the darling of the underdog-makers.

The appeal of the underdog is obvious: They give hope that greatness is still accessible, even when the odds are against it. We celebrate the mom-and-pop businesses that can outmaneuver corporate giants despite deficits in funding and power. But at some point, mom and pop grow and one day, the well-wishing recedes.

Calling Boise State an underdog at this point is insulting. The Broncos have won multiple BCS bowls, picked off an SEC team in its home state, and produced first round NFL draft picks. Their success is no longer novel.

When Peterson took over after Dan Hawkins left Boise for Colorado, the Broncos still had room to grow. They were still the team that scored by the dozens and played on turf the shade of Superman's spandex.

But today, the Broncos are something else. Stalled by the shifting sands of conference realignment, Boise State is a good program a little off the traditional map. Without access to the television exposure and money that comes with major conference membership, the next step in their evolution is difficult to envision.

And this is why Peterson's move seems like a bummer for everyone involved. After years of being mentioned as a candidate for major jobs, shuffling to a good-not-great BCS mid-packer is disappointing. After perhaps his poorest year at Boise State, is this a coach cashing in his professional gains before the bottom drops out of a once-growing program?

Peterson may have great success at Washington. He won plenty of games, competitive ones, in Boise, and he certainly knows the northwestern quadrant of the football country better than Lewis and Clark. Frankly, the Huskies had to be ecstatic to land him.

But behind it all, there have to be deep pools of doubt. Did the Boise lightening escape Peterson's bottle? Is his gaudy record built on the shaky foundation of a soft conference schedule? The games ahead will be tougher and the first hints of failure will draw the vultures' attention.

The future is never really bright. We may expect its positive content to outweigh the negative, but the days to come are always blanketed by the dark fog of uncertainty.

Unless, of course, you can cling to the present.

Brand — Bryan Harsin leaves Arkansas State for Boise State

Business executives detest marketing budgets. High on cost and low on reliable effectiveness, the old adage admits, "Half of any marketing budget is wasted; I just don't know which half."

In college football, the value of image to certain programs is undeniable. Think of Notre Dame's opulently gold helmets, Michigan's gigantic stadium, or Georgia's on-field flora and fauna. Even in down years, those traditional pieces keep major programs fresh in the college football zeitgeist.

But most college football brands have taken several decades to solidify. Their place in the great pageantry of fall Saturdays is as much the result of survival on the coattails of on-field success as any strategic mastery.

This is why a discussion of the brand for a program whose Division IA membership is just slightly older than the BCS seems silly.

Boise State has risen from a junior college in the late '60s to a significant player in major college football in the present tense. The ascent has been well-chronicled elsewhere, but through a combination of embracing off-prime TV slots, high-powered offenses, and blue Astroturf, the Broncos became the go-to football counterculture.

Even Boise State's critics advanced their cause. Throughout several recent seasons, the November agenda included arguments over the Broncos' viability as a national contender given its off-the-radar status. Just by having the discussion, even as many traditionalists took the negative position, was enough to entrench BSU in the national conversation.

Peterson, of course, shepherded the program through much of this rise. So when faced with his exit, Boise State clung to artifacts of his era.

In 2010, the Bronco brand seeped into college football royalty. Faced with a sputtering offense, Texas hired Boise State offensive coordinator Harsin to add a shade of blue to its tired burnt orange. Given the stations of the two programs, this was like the Queen ordering a Big Mac.

Harsin's star continued to rise, as after two years in Austin he became Arkansas State's head coach for the 2013 season (see below), winning a share of the Sun Belt title. With a year of head coaching under his belt, Harsin was primed for his next opportunity.

And yet, Harsin's candidacy to replace his former boss was hardly a slam dunk. Stung by previous coaches using its program as a stepping stone, Arkansas State placed a relatively lofty buyout in Harsin's contract. A seven-figure buyout is simply the cost of doing business for Alabama or Ohio State, but this was a new tactic for Boise State.

The challenge ahead for Harsin and Boise State is one faced by every traditional power. Even the most glamorous programs go through peaks and valleys of fate, having to rebuild their days of glory with well-worn tools. But what makes this period so critical for Boise is that the Broncos haven't done this before. The program has been a gunslingin' outsider for the duration of its national relevance. Faced with the choice of charting a brand new course or preserving the existing ethos, Boise State chose succession over revolution.

The king is dead. Long live the new king.

Ambition — Blake Anderson leaves offensive coordinator position at North Carolina to become Arkansas State head coach

At some point, you have to feel for athletic directors at smaller schools. On one hand, they want to hire great coaches for their programs; even in low stakes games, you want to be a winner.

But on the other hand, do too well in this task and you're simply auditioning coaches for their next jobs.

In each of the past three seasons, Arkansas State has hired a new coach, enjoyed a successful season, and then watched that coach leave Jonesboro for greener paychecks. In 2011, Hugh Freeze used his undefeated Sun Belt season to land in the SEC at Ole Miss. Undeterred, the Red Foxes used the opening as an opportunity to hire home-state spread guru Gus Malzahn. Malzahn posted a second consecutive 10-win season for the program, and once again the SEC raided ASU, as Malzahn leaped to Auburn.

For 2013, now looking for a fourth coach in four years, ASU looked for a longer-term coach. They hired Texas offensive coordinator Harsin, a somewhat lesser star in the college football sky, who couldn't possibly leave ASU looking for yet another coach for 2014, right?

Last week, ASU introduced Anderson, formerly North Carolina's offensive coordinator, as its fifth head coach in five years. He has no previous head coaching experience, though his stops serving under Larry Fedora have been impressive offensively. For a relatively young coach, this feels like the first stop in a career on the rise.

While ASU's rotation of coaches has spun to a comical extreme, it does emphasize the struggle smaller schools face in hiring and keeping good coaches. With shallower pockets and less appealing opportunities than major schools, these programs have to take chances on out-of-favor veterans or unproven prospects. And if a coach from this lesser pool does display top form, those same deep pockets and sexy opportunities will soon cast baited hooks outside his door.

For a group of hyper-competitive men who know that catching one of these chances can change their financial status for life, these chances are almost always too appealing to pass up. This is why so many romanticized Peterson at Boise State or Gonzaga basketball coach Mark Few. In spite of plenty of opportunity, each chose small over big, modesty over ambition.

But this is not the system for those leanings. College football coaching is a cruelly Darwinian world. These men literally compete against each other in the most starkly quantifiable way. Every Saturday, half of them exhale the relief of victory while across the battlefield, the other half gasp for the breath that will let them deal with the setbacks of defeat.

For many, the expanse of the coaching carousel represents the worst in college sports. As coaches play high stakes musical chairs, the players left behind are subject to arcane transfer restrictions that bind them to a school suddenly much different than the one they committed to.

But let's be fair: for most, if not all, of the schools I mentioned above, the players themselves are seeking a loftier destination. While often misguided, a large portion of Division I players simply want a path of less resistance to professional football. For others, college football is the price of a free degree. In the discussion of the nickels and dimes of pay-for-play schemes, we often forget that these are the real cash flows that inspire the pool of cheap labor driving college football.

Somewhere this offseason, a young, anonymous graduate assistant will toil away at a new scheme or perfect a new positional technique. For the scantest of compensation, he will reinvent and refresh the game we love. His payoff is still many years away and contingent on recognition, luck, and even more moments of genius. But if successful, he will one day find himself neatly stacked next to another black plastic block, just waiting for the firm push of opportunity to move him along.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:18 AM | Comments (0)

December 19, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 16

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Miami @ Buffalo (+3)

The Dolphins beat the Patriots 24-20, stopping the Patriots on downs in the red zone to preserve the win. It was Miami's third-straight victory, and put them in position to claim the AFC's final wild card playoff berth.

"This was a huge win for us," Joe Philbin, "and we're excited. Among the several other things we weren't able to hide in our locker room, you can add 'excitement' to that list. There was pandemonium in there. Only this time, there was back patting instead of back stabbing.

"We're apparently a better team without Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin. Incognito will remain on the suspended list with pay. He can't play, but that doesn't mean he can't pursue his dream of a rap career under the pseudonym 'Hay-Z.' I hear he's working on a track called 'I Got 99 Problems (But a Snitch Ain't One).' I have no idea what it's about."

The Bills ended a two-game slide with a 27-20 win at Jacksonville last week, led by a solid effort from rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. Buffalo is 5-9, last in the AFC East.

"Between E.J. Manuel and our rookie linebacker, Keko Alonso," Doug Marrone said, "our future looks very bright. And, with the NFL's decision to have a cold-weather Super Bowl, I would go so far as to say there's a good chance we could finally bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo."

Buffalo wins, 27-26.

Minnesota @ Cincinnati (-7)

Without Adrian Peterson out with a foot injury, the Vikings whipped Philadelphia 48-30. Peterson's backup, Toby Gerhart, was also out with an injury, leaving Matt Asiata with running back duties. Asiata responded with three rushing scores, and the Vikes knocked the Eagles out of first in the NFC East.

"Like many," Leslie Frazier said, "I'm sure the Bengals are saying 'Who he?' Of course, Matt Asiata is no Adrian Peterson. Matt is far from being a household name. Adrian, on the other hand, is a household name, especially in those in which he's head of."

The Bengals put themselves in a 21-0 hole in Pittsburgh last week, eventually losing 30-20. Cincy can clinch the AFC South with a win over the Vikings and a Baltimore loss to New England.

"We were in position to pass the Patriots as the AFC's No. 2 seed," Marvin Lewis said. "Instead, it was the Steelers who said 'bye.'

"We just have to take care of business. This team has limitless potential. Of course, the problem with potential is you have to reach it. If our recent playoff history is any indication, then the second round of the playoffs is our potential, because we've yet to reach it."

Cincinnati wins, 27-13.

Indianapolis @ Kansas City (-7)

The Chiefs and Colts meet in a possible preview of an upcoming wild card playoff game. The Colts have already clinched the AFC South, while Kansas City has locked up a wild card berth. Indy knocked off the lowly Texans 25-3 last week.

"One thing is for sure," Andrew Luck said. "We'll have a home game in the playoffs. Many think that's a clear indication that we won't 'go far' in the playoffs."

The Chiefs locked up a playoff berth with a 56-31 thrashing of the Raiders in Oakland. Alex Smith threw for five touchdowns, four to Jamaal Charles, and K.C. moved to 10-4.

"If you're throwing to Charles," Andy Reid said, "you really don't have to be that accurate. All you have to do is 'Chuck' it, and Jamaal does the rest. Charles was just unstoppable. If Howard Cosell were alive, he would no doubt say 'He could go Jamaal the way!'"

They call Missouri the "Show Me State." It will be anything but on Sunday, with neither the Colts nor the Chiefs wanting to show their hands with a certain rematch approaching. So, what you see is not likely to be what you get in two weeks when the Chiefs and Colts meet in the playoffs. That makes this game in Kansas City one of "Mo. Faux's."

Kansas City wins, 26-21.

Tampa Bay @ St. Louis (-5)

The Bucs were held to 183 yards of total offense in a 30-14 loss to the 49ers last week, undone by turnovers and an inability to protect quarterback Mike Glennon. Glennon tossed two TD's, but threw an interception and was sacked four times.

"Tampa jerseys aren't exactly a hot Christmas item," Mike Glennon said. "In fact, you can get a Mike Glennon No. 8 jersey pretty cheap at the Tampa discount pro shop, 'Everything's a Buc.'"

The inspired Rams forced three Drew Brees' turnovers on their way to a 27-16 win over the Saints at the Edward Jones Dome.

"We definitely played over our heads," Jeff Fisher said. "It's times like these that we call our home field the 'Edward Too Tall Jones Dome.'

"Right now, we're playing for pride. Fortunately, the Redskins aren't. We get their 2014 first-round pick for the Robert Griffin III trade. It looks like we'll come out ahead on that deal. Mike Shanahan surely won't do it, so let me be the one that says, 'Thank you, Robert Griffin.'"

St. Louis wins, 27-24.

Cleveland @ NY Jets (-2)

The Jets fell to 6-8 with a 30-20 loss to the Panthers in Charlotte last week. New York rushed for 157 yards, but struggled in the passing game.

"Geno Smith said he feels like a robot at times," Santonio Holmes said. "That can't be right. You only have to tell a robot how to do something once.

"I'll be interested to see Josh Gordon play in person. I see a lot of me in Gordon. Like me, he can be 'taken out of the game,' either by a good defense, or by a bad defense, particularly a lawyer that can't get us out of a drug suspension. Anyway, you tell Josh that if he wants some, come get some, because I've got some."

The Browns lost a 38-31 shootout to the Bears last week in their final home game in the Dawg Pound this season. Cleveland dropped to 4-10 on the season, last in the AFC North.

"This game lacks playoff implications," Rob Chudzinski said. "But it certainly doesn't lack 'layoff' implications. Rex Ryan could be on his last leg as Jets head coach. And we all know Jets' owner is not a 'leg' man, unlike Rex, who is. Rex says he's the right man for the job. You've got to hand it to Rex — he doesn't back down from anyone. He'll go toe-to-toe with any man, but only one woman."

How wide open is the race for the AFC's final wild card spot? Even the Jets aren't dead yet. Don't believe me? Ask any Jets fan, and they'll tell you they need "help."

The Jets batter Jason Campbell, and New York rushes for 141 yards and 2 scores.

Jets win, 23-17.

Dallas @ Washington (+3)

With a chance to move back into a tie in the NFC East, the Cowboys blew a 12-point, fourth quarter lead and lost 37-36 to the Packers. Tony Romo threw 2 late interceptions, and again faced questions about his decision-making.

"We let another one slip away," Romo said. "But please, spare me the tired old cliché about how we're like cheap lawn furniture. We're not like cheap lawn furniture. We're actually like fairly decent lawn furniture — we fold, and we're collapsible.

"But for all our dysfunction, it pales in comparison to that of the Redskins. That makes us the 'palefaces' on the way to meet the 'Redskins.' Neither of those terms is politically correct. Of course, in a game pitting the league's worst defense against the league's worst scoring defense, you can logically expect a lot of offense."

With Robert Griffin III shut down for the season, Kirk Cousins leads the Redskins with their arch-rivals coming to the nation's capital. In last week's 27-26 loss in Atlanta, Cousins threw for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

"So," Mike Shanahan said, "the Cowboys are making a stop in Washington. That seems to be the only way their defense can make a stop.

"I plan to be back in 2014. But I don't think my son and offensive coordinator Kyle will return. Finally, I can agree with everyone else in Washington when I say, 'One Shanahan is enough.'"

Garrett reprimands Dez Bryant with the heavy-handed discipline for which he's known, ordering Dallas' mercurial receiver to arrive one minute and 21 seconds early to the game. Bryant responds, and "tears up" the Washington secondary for 165 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns.

Dallas wins, 29-27.

New Orleans @ Carolina (-3)

New Orleans and Carolina meet for the second time in three weeks, and the Panthers are bent on avenging the Saints' 31-13 win in Week 14. Carolina tuned up for Drew Brees and the Saints with a 30-20 win over the Jets.

"The Saints played their game in New Orleans," Ron Rivera said. "This time, we're going to play our game. That's with defense and a ball-control offense. In the business, that's called 'punching a team in the face.' My job is to convince my team to believe it, and to convince Steve Smith not to take it literally."

The Saints lost in St. Louis 27-16 last week and fell back into a tie with the Panthers in the NFC South.

"We're obviously a much better team at home," Sean Payton said. "And with the NFC South lead on the line, it's time we did something about it. In other words, we need to find 'away' to win."

Carolina wins, 26-24.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+5½)

The Jaguars lost to the Bills 27-10 last week in Jacksonville, as the Jags fell to 1-6 at home this season. Back in week 10, the Jaguars ended an eight-game losing streak to start the season with a 29-27 win in Tennessee. They'll try for the season sweep over the Titans on Sunday at EverBank Field.

"We've got a legitimate chance to finish second in the AFC South," Gus Bradley said. "Finally, the citizens of Jacksonville have a reason to come to the games. We just ask that when they do, they bring a ticket."

Tennessee wins, 30-19.

Denver @ Houston (+11)

Denver lost 27-20 to the visiting Chargers last Thursday, as the San Diego defense held the Broncos to their lowest point output of the season. At 10-4, Denver is tied with the Chiefs atop the AFC West, but hold the tiebreaker edge due to their two wins over K.C. this season.

"I think it's important not to overreact," Peyton Manning said. "Sure, the Chargers may have exposed some of our weaknesses on offense and defense, but let's not forget the positives. We're 11-3, likely to have home-field throughout the playoffs, and I've thrown for 47 touchdowns. In addition to being a good cold-weather quarterback, I'm a great fair-weather quarterback."

In their first game after the firing of Gary Kubiak, the Texans lost 25-3 in Indianapolis. It was Houston's 12th-straight defeat, further compounding what has been a nightmarish season.

"It's amazing to think we won the AFC South last year," Wade Phillips said. "What's even more amazing is that we're ranked as the fourth-best defense this year. A lot of the credit for that goes to J.J. Watt. The man is a tank. And his effort has rubbed off on the whole organization. Now, everyone's 'tanking.'"

Denver wins, 41-24.

NY Giants @ Detroit (-9½)

The Ravens outlasted the Lions 18-16 last Monday at Ford Field, sending Detroit to its second-straight loss and fourth in five games. The Lions are 7-7, in third place in the NFC North.

"Matthew Stafford has just been awful in the fourth quarter as of late," Jim Schwartz said. "It seems he can't hit the broad side of a Megatron. Of all the side arms in this crime-ridden city, Matthew's is the most inaccurate.

"Of course, this may mean my days are numbered in Detroit. There could be a 'C.O.Y.' award coming my way. It's certainly not a 'Coach of the Year' award; it must be a 'Coach Of The Yore' award."

The Giants were blanked 23-0 by the Seahawks last week at MetLife Stadium, handing New York its ninth loss of the season. Eli Manning threw 5 interceptions and was sacked 3 times.

"Despite having 'football on my phone,'" Manning said, "I still tend to 'telegraph' my passes. I've thrown 25 interceptions this year. That leads the NFL. What's even worse, it leads quarterbacks who play in MetLife Stadium.

"But for those who think my skills have diminished, they've got another thing coming, and it's probably an interception."

Tom Coughlin won't let his team mail it in for the final two games of the season. He'll challenge them, not only to play hard but to play to win. And nothing hurts more than having your coach ask if the "G" in "G-Men" should be replace with "R U."

Detroit wins, 30-19.

Arizona @ Seattle (-10½)

The Seahawks bounced back from their Week 14 loss in San Francisco with a dominant 23-0 trouncing of the Giants at MetLife Stadium. With a win over the Cardinals, Seattle would clinch the NFC West and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"We picked off Eli Manning 5 times," Richard Sherman said. "I'm not surprised he threw so many to us. Why? Because he knew we'd catch them.

"You've probably heard that Russell Wilson was drafted by the Texas Rangers as a second baseman. But there's no chance he'll play for the Rangers. In other words, neither Russell nor Carson Palmer has a chance to get to second base."

The Cardinals blew a late lead before turning back the Titans 37-34 in overtime.

"We're playing for our playoff lives," Bruce Arians said. "Even if we win our remaining two games and finish 11-5, that still might not be enough. Rashad Johnson knows better than anyone that it's going to be a 'digit' short."

Seattle harasses Carson Palmer in to 3 turnovers, and Wilson runs for a score and passes for two more.

Seattle wins, 27-13.

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay (+1½)

Facing a 26-3 halftime deficit in Dallas, the Packers stormed back behind Matt Flynn and Eddie Lacy to shock the Cowboys 37-36. Green Bay matched its biggest comeback in franchise history and improved to 7-6-1, keeping their playoff hopes alive.

"Is anyone that surprised?" Mike McCarty said. "It's December in AT&T Stadium. Not even Santa delivers in Dallas.

"Indeed, we matched the biggest comeback in franchise history. That could be surpassed, if Aaron Rodgers comes back and leads us to the playoffs. Aaron's collarbone has been examined and re-examined several times over the last few weeks. Not to discount the double-check, but I want those doctors to come to a conclusion, before our season does."

The Steelers maintained their slim playoff hopes with a 30-20 win over the AFC North-leading Bengals on Sunday night. At 6-8, Pittsburgh needs to win out and hope for loads of help in order to make the playoffs.

"If only a few breaks had gone our way," Mike Tomlin said, "we would certainly be in the playoffs. But that's the nature of the game. Often, it's a game of inches. In our case, it's a game of 'feet.' And those feet have unfortunately been in the wrong place. And our playoff situation seems to follow that of our feet — 'in or out?'"

Rodgers returns, and the Packers play it safe with a run-heavy game plan. Eddie Lacy rushes for 120 yards, opening the door to play-action, which Rodgers executes for 2 touchdown passes.

Green Bay wins, 29-27.

Oakland @ San Diego (-10)

The Chargers shocked the Broncos 27-20 last Thursday, improving to 7-7 and boosting their playoff aspirations. Philip Rivers passed for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"I didn't expect it," Philip Rivers said, "but I may be having the finest season of my career. Occasionally, I'll ask a teammate to pinch me so I'll know it's real. One day, I asked Manti T'eo to do it. That resulted in a very awkward moment."

The Raiders were blown out by the Chiefs 56-31 last week in the Black Hole, Oakland's second-worst defeat this year. Jamaal Charles exploded for five touchdowns as the Raiders dropped to 4-10.

"What this team needs is inspiration," Dennis Allen said. "That's why I asked Raider legends Ken Stabler and Dave Casper to visit. They led us in a moving and spirited prayer, because, let's face it, the only way we can beat the Chargers is with the help of some 'Holy Rollers.'"

San Diego wins, 31-27.

New England @ Baltimore (-2)

The Patriots lost 24-20 in Miami as red zone inadequacy cost them a division-clinching win. Still, the 10-4 Pats can clinch the AFC East with a win in Baltimore, and would clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Cincinnati loss.

"Obviously," Tom Brady said, "we missed Rob Gronkowski's presence in the red zone. But rest assured, Rob was likely partying in a football-themed club called the 'Red Zone.'

"I'm sure Terrell Suggs wants a piece of me. I'm that pretty. Unfortunately for him, I, with help from my offensive line, am saving myself."

The Ravens beat the Lions in Detroit 18-16 behind 6 field goals from Justin Tucker, including a 61-yarder with 38 seconds left. Baltimore is 8-6, and would win the AFC North if they win their final two games.

"Tucker could be this team's MVP," John Harbaugh said. "61 yards is quite a boot. With one single kick, he covered more yards than Ray Rice on a good day.

"Baltimore fans hate the Patriots with a passion. And Terrell Suggs hates Tom Brady with a passion. And Terrell's fan club, the 'Suggalo's,' hate Brady, as well. And as we all know, it's that time of year. That's when NFL officials stand under the 'Patriot whistle-toe' and kiss Brady's ass."

Suggs sacks Brady once, and the victorious Ravens set up a Week 17 showdown in Cincinnati for the AFC North title.

Baltimore wins, 22-20.

Chicago @ Philadelphia (-3)

With a chance to solidify their hold on the NFC East, the uninspired Eagles lost 48-30 in Minnesota to a Vikings' team without Adrian Peterson and his backup, Toby Gerhart. Philly's defense couldn't stop the makeshift Minnesota offense led by Matt Cassel and running back Matt Asiata.

"Luckily," Chip Kelly said, "we play in the NFC East, also known as the 'NFC Easy. We're fortunate enough to play in Dallas in the regular season's final week. If the Cowboys' defense was as suffocating as their owner, we'd be in deep trouble.

"There are rumors that I'm a candidate to replace Mack Brown at the University Of Texas. But let me tell you, that's just speculation. My focus is not on 'burnt orange,' it's on 'burnt green,' which is the color of the NFL's second-worst pass defense."

Jay Cutler shook off a rocky start in Cleveland last week before recovering to throw 3 touchdown passes in Chicago's 38-31 win in Cleveland.

"It took a while," Cutler said, "but I shook off the rust. And being called 'rusty' is probably as close as I'll ever come to being called an 'iron man.'"

Philadelphia wins, 31-30.

Atlanta @ San Francisco (-13)

Monday Night Football's Falcons-49ers matchup is a rematch of last year's NFC championship game, but the magnitude of this game has been diminished by a disastrous season for the Falcons, who are 4-10. The 10-4 49ers clinch a playoff spot with a win.

"This is the final game in Candlestick Park," Jim Harbaugh said. "So we want to make it memorable for not only the home fans, but Baltimore Ravens fans, as well. We're asking all attending the game to wear black, and we'll call it a 'black out,' then listen to see what kind of idiotic conspiracy theories Ray Lewis can think of."

The Falcons won for only the fourth time this season, beating the Redskins after stifling a Washington two-point conversion for the win.

"The Redskins eschewed the extra point for the two-point conversion," Mike Smith said. "In the end, they failed to capitalize on the '1,' the '2,' and the 'III.'"

San Francisco wins, 31-13.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:19 AM | Comments (0)

December 18, 2013

December Stock Market

The 2013-14 college basketball season is heating up and already we've figured something out.

Parity will rule the day again.

So far, no clear cut team has emerged as the serious title front-runner, though Arizona and Syracuse have been solid and deserve their current spots at the top. Some teams have shown that they're legit contenders to make noise in March, while others have shown that they could be the team that crashes in the Big Dance. Let's take a look at some of the teams whose stock is worth buying or selling this season.

Kentucky (8-3)
Stock: Soft Sell

When you inherit a whole bunch of talented freshmen and throw them on the floor, you really don't know what to expect. There's loads of talent on this Kentucky team, but UK can really go two ways: either they gel as a team and make some real noise, or egos clash and the team suffers through a season similar to last year. Julius Randle has shown that he's going to be phenomenal and I really like what the Harrison twins bring to the lineup, specifically Andrew, whose assist to turnover ratio (3.8:2.5) is not bad. The Cats are really hard to diagnose right now, but they're certainly not among the top five teams, though the potential is there.

Villanova (10-0)
Stock: Sell

Surprised an undefeated, a top-10 team, is in the sell column? Believe it.

Villanova hasn't played a lot of quality opponents, but taking down Kansas and Iowa definitely raised and eye and returned the Wildcats back to the national limelight. However, I'm not exactly sold on Nova just yet. Jay Wright's guard-heavy attack generally works in taking down a big opponent or two but it never seems to work come March. I love that their top three scorers, (JayVaughn Pinkston, James Bell, and Darrun Hilliard) average less than 30 minutes a game. I hate their assist to turnover ratio. There's a lot to like; there's a lot not to like. This could change, but for now, I'm not buying a deep March run.

Iowa State (8-0)
Stock: Strong Buy

Iowa State gave Ohio State a major scare last season. This March, I think they scare a lot of people. I really, really like the Cyclones as a underrated seed that goes deep. They've already got three quality wins over Michigan, BYU, and Iowa. They've got five players averaging double digits. They shoot well. They rebound well. They don't beat themselves. Their assist to turnover ratio is fantastic. Fred Hoiberg has done a great job reviving this program and Iowa State seems to have the right ingredients to really throw a wrench in a few brackets come March.

Michigan State (8-1)
Stock: Neutral

The Spartans are good. Very good. When they're playing to their potential, they are arguably the best team in college basketball. The problem is, MSU has often been playing to the level of their opponents. Examples? Columbia. Oakland. Michigan State is similar to Kentucky in that they could easily be a Final Four team, but just as easily could be upset in the first round. Consistent inconsistency has me still up in the air on Tom Izzo's bunch, so I'm willing to say neutral and see more of the Spartans.

North Carolina (7-2)
Stock: Sell

Three really good wins against a good Michigan State squad, a great Louisville team and a young but talented Kentucky team. Two pretty bad losses to a rebuilding Belmont and a lukewarm UAB. It's pretty easy to say that UNC has the most puzzling early resume in college hoops. With that being said, I wouldn't take the Tar Heels past the Sweet 16, if not earlier. It's a hard sell; the peaks and valleys are just that steep. If they can show some consistency in ACC play, I might reconsider.

Wichita State (11-0)
Stock: Buy

The Shockers can really make a case that they're the best team in Kansas right now. Wichita just completed their SEC sweep with a win over Alabama. The most impressive stat of the night? Wichita shot 25-27 from the charity stripe. Cleanthony Early, Tekele Cotton, and Ron Baker are still playing angry and they're showing last season's Final Four run was no fluke.

Massachusetts (9-0)
Stock: Cautious Sell

Chaz Williams is awesome. Having said that, UMass seems to be another undefeated that, while beating a couple of good teams, is set to slide a little. The Minutemen will go as far as Williams takes them, which could be a nice Cinderella streak. Do the echoes of Lou Roe return though? Nope.

Florida (8-2)
Stock: Cautious Buy

The Gators have faced a brutal non-conference slate that I think will bode very well come March. Their losses to Wisconsin and UConn weren't ones to damage their resume too much, and their wins over Florida State, Kansas, and Memphis are solid. The buy is a cautious one for this reason. They've beaten the good teams on their slate that are ranked below them; they just haven't beaten anyone ranked higher than them yet. Billy Donovan's teams tend to make a lot of noise in March though, so take the buy. Just watch carefully.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:23 PM | Comments (0)

December 17, 2013

Benching RG3 and Josh McCown

Five Quick Hits

* I wrote about home-field advantage last week, but it's a huge story as we approach the postseason. The Bengals, Patriots, and Saints are all undefeated at home, a combined 20-0. They all have losing records on the road, a collective 9-13. The Seahawks are also undefeated at home (6-2 away).

* Minnesota is the only team without a road victory in 2013. The Vikings are 0-6-1. They play at Cincinnati in Week 16, putting their winless mark against the Bengals' perfect home record.

* Tony Romo threw a pair of critical interceptions in the fourth quarter, so I get blaming him for the loss, but let's also throw some serious blame to a Dallas defense that allowed five straight TD drives in the second half. You can't give up 34 points in two quarters and expect to win.

* With only two weeks remaining, the NFC playoffs are wide open. Seattle has clinched, but the other five spots are undecided.

* The Chargers are 7-7, but they've beaten all three AFC teams that have clinched playoff berths: Denver, Indianapolis, and Kansas City. They've also beaten both Dallas and Philadelphia, so that takes care of the NFC East champion, too. How this team lost to Washington and Oakland is something of a mystery.

Benching Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown

This is the second week in a row I've written about the unholy mess in Washington, but it just keeps getting worse. When I devoted several paragraphs to the drama last week, that was before head coach Mike Shanahan benched his starting quarterback. This week, Jim Rome made a cameo on the CBS pregame show and said, "Mike Shanahan is the only coach I know who plays his franchise quarterback when he's hurt and benches him when he's healthy."

As best I can tell, no one believes Shanahan's proclaimed reason for benching Robert Griffin III — to make sure he's healthy for the offseason — and no one thinks that would make sense even if it were true. There are reports, however, that Griffin was benched for performance reasons, and an argument could be made that Kirk Cousins gives the team a better chance to win right now. Griffin is not an impact runner this season; he doesn't scare defenses with his legs. That allows tighter coverage on his receivers, because defenders aren't cheating away to contain RG3. His read progression and decision-making in the passing game are sub-par, and that knee brace is upsetting the best part of his game. Cousins has played well whenever he's been on the field.

Cousins played okay in his first start. In the first quarter, he completed Washington's longest pass of the season, 62 yards to Aldrick Robinson. He finished with 373 net yards, 3 TDs, and a 94.8 passer rating, but also 2 interceptions and a lost fumble. The assumption around the league is that these last three games are an audition. Washington wants to trade Cousins in the offseason, ideally for the first-round pick they won't have (traded to the Rams as part of the package for RG3). Griffin and Cousins are the same age, the same point in their careers, and you can only play one at a time. Cousins looks like a nice enough player, but Griffin's ceiling is a lot higher, and the team has so much invested in him, it's obvious who they're going to keep.

Jay Cutler and Josh McCown

Just as puzzling in its own way was Marc Trestman's decision to bench Josh McCown and return to Jay Cutler. McCown just went from NFC Offensive Player of the Week to a healthy scratch, with no off-field troubles to explain the move. From the FOX pregame show...

Michael Strahan: "The unwritten rule is you can't lose your job to injury."

Jimmy Johnson: "Yeah, some injured player said that."

The Bears went 3-2 with McCown as starter, averaging 26.2 points per game. McCown averaged 318 net yards and 2.4 TDs per game, with a 109.8 passer rating. In the last three games before he was sent back to the bench, McCown passed for over 300 yards, multiple TDs, and a rating over 100 in all three.

The Bears are 5-3 with Cutler as starter, averaging 28.6 points per game. Cutler averages 271 net yards and 2.0 TDs per game, with an 89.8 passer rating. He's actually 5-4 as starter, but it doesn't feel fair to charge him with the loss to Washington, when Cutler only threw 8 passes and left in the second quarter. But it also isn't fair to blame McCown. Cutler put the team in an early hole with 3-of-8 passing, plus a sack and a pick-six. The Bears scored 35 points after McCown entered the game, and only punted once on his eight offensive drives, with no turnovers. We'll just blame that loss on the defense and leave both QBs out of it.

Chicago has a good offense, and that's true with either QB, but Cutler is inconsistent; he's always been a risk-reward player who makes a lot of mistakes. Cutler has 10 interceptions in 296 attempts (3.4%), while McCown has 1 in 220 passes (0.5%), about one-seventh as many. If you stick with McCown, and he struggles, you go back to Cutler and there's minimal controversy. But now if Cutler struggles, by going back to McCown you're publicly benching Jay for a career backup.

There's another factor, of course: Cutler will be a free agent at the end of the season. He'll be looking for a nine-digit contract. Throughout his career, Cutler has been a pretty average QB, and I don't think he's nearly worth it, but the club has to consider its position and maybe see what it thinks Cutler can do now that Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett have emerged as legit threats alongside Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. But Trestman can't play politics on an 8-6 team in the thick of a division title race, and I've never believed in benching the hot hand. Cutler can do things McCown can't, but McCown has protected the ball in a way Cutler probably never will.

I don't like benching McCown, and who knows what Mike Shanahan is thinking in DC.

Turnover Extravaganzas

This weekend, Washington and Oakland committed 7 turnovers apiece, and Eli Manning threw 5 interceptions. A breakdown of the horror:

Atlanta 27, Washington 26

* In the second quarter, three consecutive plays resulted in lost fumbles. Ladies and gentleman, a matchup of 3-10 teams.

* Washington outgained the Falcons by over 200 yards (476-243), but lost. Seven turnovers will do that.

* Shanahan's interactions with the media have grown increasingly tense and uncomfortable. He makes Bill Belichick look like Dick Vermeil. In fairness to Shanny, if my team committed 7 turnovers against a team that only had 12 the rest of the season, I'd be pissed, too.

* Despite the 7 takeaways, Atlanta came a two-point conversion away from defeat. That really shouldn't happen. If you get 7 takeaways, you should win a blowout. Just ask Seattle.

Seattle 23, Giants 0

* This was Eli Manning's fifth game of the season with 3 or more interceptions. That's the most since Rex Grossman in 2006. No one in the last 30 years has six 3-INT games in a season.

* The Giants didn't reach Seattle territory until the fourth quarter, and in the first 52 minutes gained only 6 first downs. They had 4 three-and-outs to go with the 5 picks.

* The loss to Seattle was New York's second shutout loss of the season. The Panthers beat them 38-0 in Week 3. The Giants have lost by more than 20 four times.

* Seattle has held five of its 14 opponents to under 10 points. The Seahawks have passed Denver for best point differential in the league, outscoring their opponents by 175.

Kansas City 56, Oakland 31

* The Chiefs scored 8 TDs and no field goals. This seems like an appropriate time to reiterate that Jamaal Charles is awesome.

* Alex Smith finished the game with a perfect passer rating (158.3). He completed 17 of 20 passes, for 287 yards, 5 TDs, and no INTs. Most of the yardage came on short passes to Charles, who gained 172 of his 195 yards after the catch.

* Charles gained the most receiving yards by a running back since Marshall Faulk in 1999 (204) and the most YAC since the stat has been kept. (h/t ESPN)

* The Raiders were okay in the middle of the game. Both teams scored 28 points in the second and third quarters. But Oakland took a real beating in the first (21-3) and fourth (3 INTs). Matt McGloin (4 INT, lost fumble) committed 5 of the team's 7 turnovers.

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Top 10

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Denver Broncos
5. New Orleans Saints
6. New England Patriots
7. Miami Dolphins
8. San Diego Chargers
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. Cincinnati Bengals

The Baltimore Ravens have won four in a row, three of them nail-biters and none of them against teams with winning records. The Kansas City Chiefs are 11-3, guaranteed a playoff spot, and they've won by over 30 points for two weeks in a row. But they dropped three straight before that, and their defense has lost its mojo. KC opened 9-0, allowing only 111 points (12.3/gm). Since then, they're 2-3, allowing 134 points (26.8/gm). The Raiders, who hadn't scored 30 all season, turned the ball over seven times and still posted 31 against the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles is amazing, but against better teams than Oakland, he can't carry a team with no passing game and vulnerable defense.

Bottom Three

30. Oakland
31. Washington
32. Houston

Here's a surprising stat: the 2-12 Texans have the same third-down conversion percentage (35.6%) as their opponents (35.9%). They have more first downs, more yards, more yards per play, more yards per rush, and more time of possession. They're -15 in turnovers, they're awful in the red zone, they lead the AFC in penalties, and they've missed the most field goals of any team in the league. They've also lost the most close games of any team.

Click here for the NFL Week 14 Report, including wild finishes, wind chills, Gary Kubiak, and more Shanahan drama.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:27 PM | Comments (0)

December 16, 2013

Haven't We Met Before?

Sports hold a special place in my heart. And if you’re reading this column, it's more than likely they cast a spell over you, too. But for what reason? Is it the graceful ballet that athletes can provide? Is it the brutality of a pseudo-gladiator environment? Is it the danger exhibited by speed and force? Sure, all of those things can be true.

However, don't discount the effect of a good, old-fashioned rivalry. For a team, it's offer a sense of validation, even in a poor season. For fans, it's a shot at "rising above" that insufferable opponent. Whether the deep-seeded hatred arises from simple territorial geography or simple history, the most important foe to vanquish is your rival.

In college football's top division, the last week of the season is dedicated to them. Legends are made through their misery. Coaches are fired because of them (sometimes). And, in some instances, national championships are decided directly because of them. But when you're talking about Division I, those specific make-or-break matchups come once a generation (save the recent run of the Iron Bowl). Over the last decade, one matchup has had a direct impact on a championship title.

Granted, we don't talk that much about Division III football on this site. (Heck, I don't know if we ever have). However, when you have something that continues to happen, it's worth noting. On December 14th, Mount Union and Wisconsin-Whitewater survived very formidable challenges in their respective national semifinal games. The victories by the Purple Raiders and the Warhawks sets up a familiar title tilt.

From 2005-2011, there was no other program that could replace these two in their division's premier game. After a one-year hiatus, the newly-minted rivals will be back at it with the ultimate prize on the line. Mount Union has 11 crowns to their credit, but they haven't been dominant when it comes to their Wisconsin friends. Over their previous seven meetings, Whitewater actually leads the series 4-3 after winning the last three meetings. Now the Raiders get their opportunity for payback, while the Warhawks seek to become just the second program since 1973 to win five championships.

I understand that this game won't be covered the same way that the BCS Championship Game, the World Series, or the Super Bowl will be. However, if you think this game doesn't matter at the next level, I'd disagree. While the impact these colleges have on the NFL is minimal, this particular rivalry has helped shine the light on a few exceptions to the big-time rule.

Former wide receiver Derek Stanley might not have lifted a trophy, but he helped build the Warhawk program to its current status before getting drafted in 2007. Washington wideout Pierre Garcon just missed out on a three-peat with the Raiders before making an impression on Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. Cecil Shorts III followed Garcon's path at Mount Union, converting from QB to WR. He brought attention to his potential during the 2009 DIII Championship, and although the current Jacksonville Jaguar lost the last two shots at Whitewater, he was part of the team that won the 2008 meeting.

We've been taught that greatness, in any sport, is hard to achieve, and even more difficult to sustain. The journey to be the best, the pressure to keep it going, and the drive to pass complacency are big enough for one entity to handle. So what happens when not one, but two programs create this much success over this long of a period? Combining the familiarity, the respect, and the stakes, you have, in my opinion, the ultimate rivalry. And, despite my usual aversion to this kind of consistency, we're lucky enough to witness it unfold again in 2013.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 3:27 PM | Comments (0)

December 12, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 15

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

San Diego at Denver (-10½)

The Broncos overcame a sluggish start before pulling away to beat the Titans 51-28. Peyton Manning threw for 397 yards and 4 touchdowns in temperatures that were in the teens at Sports Authority Field.

"To all the critics who say I'm a lesser quarterback in cold temperatures," Manning said. "They can all go 'F°' themselves.

"Maybe I don't have the same arm strength I did when I was younger, but take it from me and Philip Rivers, droopy balls is a natural sign of aging."

The Chargers blasted the Giants, 37-14, giving Eli Manning a sour welcome in San Diego. Rivers outplayed Manning in a battle of quarterbacks forever linked by the 2004 NFL draft.

"Manning made a choice to shun San Diego," Rivers said, "and it was a total chump move. Peyton would never do that, although he'd gladly play for someone who did. John Elway did the same to the Colts in 1983. Apparently, refusing to play for a team is the easiest way to win two Super Bowls."

The Broncos will be without Wes Welker, who suffered his second concussion of the season. But Manning has plenty of other weapons to keep his wits about him.

Manning out-duels Rivers and the Broncos win, 30-27.

Washington at Atlanta (-6)

The visiting Chiefs trounced the Redskins 45-10 last week, handing the 'Skins their worst defeat of the year. Most fans at FedEx Field left early, not long after the start of the third quarter with the 'Skins trailing 38-10.

"That's interesting," Mike Shanahan said. "I thought about heading for the exit early myself. That was last year, after I found out Robert Griffin and Daniel Snyder had a 'thing' going on. That 'thing' turned out to be a good relationship.

"But seriously, I care deeply for Robert. He's like a son to me. If this quarterbacking thing doesn't work out, I could always hire him as my offensive coordinator one day."

The Falcons were edged 22-21 in Green Bay after blowing a 21-10 lead at halftime. Atlanta fell to 3-10, in last place in the NFC South.

"We're gone from first to worst," Mike Smith said. "From the NFC championship game last season to possibly the first pick in the 2014 draft. The 'Dirty Bird' to the 'Early Bird.'

"The Redskins are starting Kirk Cousins in place of Griffin. That's a daring move by Shanahan, but only because he's daring Snyder to fire him. And poor Cousins, he's stuck in the middle. Soon, he may find himself stuck in Jacksonville, or Tennessee, or worse, as a Jet."

If you thought bi-partisanship in the nation’s capital was impossible, think again. Just ask Congress if the Redskins suck, and you'll finally hear the 'Skins get some "yays."

Atlanta wins, 27-24.

Chicago at Cleveland (-1)

The Browns blew a 26-14 lead with 2:39 left to play, allowing two Tom Brady TD passes in less than a minute in a 27-26 loss. The collapse overshadowed another huge day from Josh Gordon, who had seven catches for 151 yards and a score, including an 80-yard TD bomb in the third quarter.

"It's certainly not the first time Josh has been 'wasted,'" Rob Chudzinski said.

"Josh is a receiver with a unique blend of size and speed. And he's been on fire as of late. You can call him 'Flash Gordon,' but people who know him best, like NFL substance abuse investigators, know him as 'Blaze Gordon.'

"But let's be honest. The officials gave that game to the Patriots. The only interference I saw was on the game, from the back judge. I guess in Foxboro, there's a fine line between 'mystique' and 'mistake.'"

The Bears crushed the lifeless Cowboys 45-28 on Monday night, knocking Dallas out of a first-place tie in the NFC East. Josh McCown accounted for five scores as Chicago moved to 8-5, one game ahead of the Bears in the NFC North.

"McCown is an unlikely hero," Mark Trestman said. "That could make Jay Cutler an unlikely action star of the big screen, because he just might be in the next Expendables movie.

"There's a chance Cutler may get the 'franchise' tag in the offseason. That's the first time Cutler's been 'tagged,' but certainly not the first time he's been 'labeled.'"

Cleveland wins, 26-24.

Houston at Indianapolis (-6)

The Texans lost their 11th-straight game on Thursday night, 27-20, to the Jaguars, and fired head coach Gary Kubiak on Friday. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was named interim head coach.

"Once again," Wade Phillips said, "I've got to deal with the fall out. Sometimes, your heart and your owner say the same thing: 'it's time for some new blood.' I've spoken with Gary; he's disappointed, but definitely saw this coming. That's usually what happens when you fall down on the job."

The struggling Colts were overpowered, 42-28, in Cincinnati last week, but still clinched the AFC South division thanks to Tennessee's 51-28 loss in Denver. Indy will likely be the AFC's No. 4 seed, and all signs point to a matchup with the Chiefs.

"That means we start the playoffs at home," Andrew Luck said. "You tell the Chiefs that 'We'll be waiting.' I imagine the Chiefs will respond with just the opposite: 'they can't wait.

"We're certainly a flawed team. We're like Time magazine — we have weekly issues. But the Texans are like a newspaper — they fold in a lot of places. Including Lucas Oil Stadium."

Indianapolis wins, 30-27.

New England at Miami (+2)

The Patriots used a miracle finish to upend the Browns 27-26 in Foxboro last week. Tom Brady threw for 2 touchdown passes late, one after the Pats recovered an onside kick with less than a minute left.

"What a comeback," Brady said. "I definitely think there were supernatural forces at work. That's the only way I can explain the 'phantom' interference call that put us in position to win. I'm sure that drove my homey Terrell Suggs insane. I bet 'T' Sizzled when he saw that replay. In his honor, I'm making a donation to the school for wayward referees, Call So Bad University, which is a satellite school to Sugg's alma mater, Ball So Hard University."

"After last week's frigid game in Foxboro, it's nice to take our talents to South Beach. Of course, Rob Gronkowski won't be making the trip with us. He's out for the season with a knee injury. So, for once in Miami, Gronk won't be 'on the scene.'"

The Dolphins won a huge road game, knocking off the Steelers at Heinz Field 34-28 to improve to 7-6. The win puts Miami in good position to claim the AFC's final playoff spot.

"It's not often you see a warm-weather team beat a cold-weather team in the snow," Joe Philbin said. "But we've been doing the unexpected all year. Like fostering a culture of racism and inappropriate behavior in our locker room. But I think we've all learned from this. Sometimes, you've got to turn the other cheek; other times, you've got a turn a blind eye."

Miami wins, 27-20.

Philadelphia at Minnesota (+5)

Minnesota lost a wild 29-26 shootout in Baltimore as the two teams combined for 5 touchdowns in the final 2:05. Adrian Peterson left the game with a sprained foot injury early in the second quarter, and will sit out Sunday's game against the Eagles.

"In addition to the uncertainty of our quarterback situation," Leslie Frazier said, "now Peterson is hobbled. I think Adrian would agree that, just as it was the case in Baltimore, our issues are snowballing.

"If Adrian can't play, we'll need Cordarrelle Patterson to continue to step up. He's could be the next Randy Moss. He's got three things in common with Moss: he wears No. 84, he's got 'madd skillz,' and he's never given a damn what Mike Tice has to say."

The Eagles scored the game's final 21 points, including two long scoring runs from LeSean McCoy, to turn back the Lions 34-20 at snow-covered Lincoln Financial Field. With the Cowboys' loss to the Bears on Monday night, Philadelphia took outright possession of the NFC East lead.

"One would think that a Chip Kelly offense would struggle in the snow," Riley Cooper said. "But as you saw on that field today, 'white is all right.'

"There's a threat of snow in Minneapolis on Sunday. But there's little chance of significant accumulation. Significant accumulation is when problems arise at the Metrodome — when snowfall is through the roof."

Philadelphia wins, 31-28.

Seattle at NY Giants (+7)

The Seahawks lost a 19-17 slugfest in San Francisco and saw their seven-game winning streak snapped. The 11-2 Seahawks lead the 9-4 49ers by two games in the NFC West.

"I'm surprised we lost," Pete Carroll said. "We're not accustomed to losing. As Richard Sherman proved, we're also not accustomed to losing with dignity.

"MetLife Stadium is the home of Super Bowl XLVIII. So, we're hoping to make a return trip to this venue in February. So, on Sunday, we plan to familiarize ourselves with the place, particularly the Giants' end zone."

The Giants lost in San Diego 37-14 last week and fell to 5-8 on the year. They'll face one of the NFL's best defenses in the Seahawks, who are eager to rebound after last week's loss to the 49ers.

"I'll say what many of the Seahawks often do," Tom Coughlin said. "'We've got a tough test in front of us.' And it seems that Russell Wilson is the only one that passes.

"But who doesn't need a boost from time to time, whether it be to your ego or to your body? Personally, I believe that whatever you put into your own body is your business, which just happens to be the same argument Plaxico Burress made in court."

How intent are the Seahawks on returning to East Rutherford for the Super Bowl? Pretty intent, so much so that Marshawn Lynch, in homage to Tupac Shakur, spends Saturday night having "MetLife" tattooed across his torso.

The prideful G-Men take an early lead, but the 'Hawks force Manning to throw, and the Giants receivers to catch, which is a deadly combination.

Seattle wins, 27-16.

San Francisco at Tampa Bay (+5)

The Buccaneers beat the Bills 27-6 last week, as Bobby Rainey rushed for 127 yards and 2 touchdowns and the Bucs' defense forced 5 turnovers. Now 4-9, Tampa will host the 49ers at Raymond James Stadium.

"I like the way my defense is playing," Greg Schiano said. "They're aggressive, but they're not dirty. So just let Vernon Davis know that this Christmas season, he doesn't need to have his package insured. 'The Catch' is already a legendary play in 49ers' history; the 49ers don't need anything like 'The Grab' making it to the history books. Of course, if the trend of concussions and torn ACL's continues, the crotch may become the only part of the body a defender can legally touch."

The 49ers beat NFC West rival Seattle 19-17 last week behind four field goals from Phil Dawson. San Fran pulled to within two games of the Seahawks in the NFC West standings.

"If you ask Richard Sherman," Jim Harbaugh said, "the officials decided the game. He's right — they signaled Dawson's last field goal 'good.'

"I coached Sherman at Stanford. I believe he majored in waste management with a minor in communications. Hence, his ability at 'trash talk.'"

San Francisco wins, 24-13.

Buffalo at Jacksonville (+2)

The Jaguars beat the Texans for the second time this year, handing Houston a 27-20 defeat that resulted in the firing of Texans' head coach Gray Kubiak. After a 0-8 start, Jacksonville is now 4-9 and looking forward to the future.

"We're 4-1 in our last five games," Gus Bradley said. "You could say we've 'turned a corner.' And that's progress for a team known for 'cutting' corners. Especially where acquiring quarterbacks is concerned."

The Bills committed 4 turnovers in a demoralizing 27-6 loss in Tampa last week. Buffalo fell to 4-9 and is last in the AFC East.

"You've got to hand it to the Jaguars," Doug Marrone said. "They play hard. They are by no means flashy. Maybe that's a reflection of their head coach, Gus Bradley. Maybe it's their spray-painted helmets."

Jacksonville wins, 27-13.

Kansas City at Oakland (+4½)

The Chiefs pummeled the Redskins 45-10 in Washington last week and clinched a playoff spot. K.C. sacked Robert Griffin six times and forced 2 Griffin turnovers.

"Redskins' fans made a beeline to the exits just after halftime," Andy Reid said. That's because we directed them there. We like to say we 'route-ed' them. But you have to hand them this: they're the only people in Washington who know where they're going.

"As for the Raiders, we know we can expect a chilly reception in the Black Hole. We may be Oakland's most-hated AFC West rival. And we hate the Raiders, too. It's nothing personal. We don't hate the players, we hate the name."

The Raiders lost to the Jets, 37-27, in MetLife Stadium last week as Geno Smith combined for 269 yards of total offense and 2 touchdowns.

"It's true what they say in New York," Dennis Allen said. "Geno Smith can be a terror."

Kansas City wins, 26-16.

NY Jets at Carolina (-11)

The 6-7 Jets kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 37-27 win over the Raiders last week. They'll face a stiff test in Charlotte against the Panthers and their second-ranked defense.

"I heard ESPN is banning the use of the word 'suck," Rex Ryan said. "In other news, the Jets' beat writer needs a thesaurus pronto."

The Panthers faltered in New Orleans last week, losing big to the Saints, 31-13. The loss dropped Carolina from a tie for first in the NFC South.

"The Jets may try to sneak in here and steal a victory," Cam Newton said. "But we're the Panthers; we do the prowling."

Carolina wins, 22-7.

Green Bay at Dallas (-4)

Matt Flynn's 2-yard touchdown pass to Andrew Quarless completed Green Bay's come-from-behind 22-21 win over the Falcons at Lambeau Field last week. The Packers are 6-6-1, trailing the Bears, who lead the division at 8-5.

"If Aaron Rodgers is cleared to play," Mike McCarthy said, "we have a good chance of winning the division. But we don't want to rush him back for fear of him re-injuring himself. Despite the risks, I'm all for Aaron playing. Given the choice of two temporary fixes, I'll take the one to Aaron's collarbone as opposed to Matt Flynn."

The Cowboys fell out a first-place tie in the NFC East, losing 45-28 in Chicago on Monday night. The Bears piled up 490 yards of total offense and collected 33 first downs.

"The Bears scored on all but one of their possessions," Tony Romo said. "If you were on our sideline, you no doubt heard our offense pleading for our defense to 'make a stop.' And you probably also heard our defense saying 'make it stop.'

"Jerry Jones still has Monte Kiffin's back. Jerry's very loyal to Monte, and will defend him to no end. He expects us to do the same. That makes Jerry a better 'defensive' coordinator than Kiffin."

Dallas wins, 31-23.

Arizona at Tennessee (+3)

The Titans gave up 395 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air to Peyton Manning in a 51-28 loss, Tennessee's fourth in their last five games. Tennessee is 5-8 and still alive in the wide-open AFC playoff race.

"There are rumors that neither Chris Johnson nor Jake Locker will be in Tennessee next year," Mike Muchak said. "Locker just can't stay healthy. He's had two leg injuries in this season alone. So, if we do, in fact, release him, you could say we gave him the 'walking boot.'"

The Cardinals overwhelmed the Rams 30-10 last week and improved to 8-5 on the season. Arizona could win their remaining three games and still not make the playoffs.

"That's why it's known as the 'wild, wild, West," Bruce Arians said. "A 7-9 team wins the division one year, and an 11-5 team potentially doesn't even make the playoffs in another."

Arizona wins, 23-17.

New Orleans at St. Louis (+6)

The Saints bounced back from their loss in Seattle in Week 13 with a definitive 31-13 win over the Cam Newton and the Panthers. Drew Brees passed for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns as New Orleans took the outright lead in the NFC South.

"We put a whippin' on the Panthers," Sean Payton said. "It looks like 'Riverboat Ron's' team got a 'paddling.'"

The Rams fell to 5-8 after their 30-10 loss to the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. They'll try to derail the Saints' path to the NFC South crown.

"Brees is just like any other quarterback," Chris Long said. "He puts his Wranglers on one leg at a time. Joe Montana is not like any other quarterback, because he wears Shechers.

"We have to get some pressure on Brees. Of course, you have to be careful once you get close. Just ask Ahmad Brooks. Brees is a sensitive fellow; you've got to let him down easy."

New Orleans wins, 27-23.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (+3)

Pittsburgh lost at home 34-28 to the Dolphins last week, effectively ending any playoff hopes they harbored. The Steelers nearly pulled off the victory, but Antonio Brown stepped out of bounds on a kickoff return that featured several laterals.

"And an illegal forward pass or two," Ben Roetlisberger said. "I was a guilty party, which is no surprise, because I've often been too forward with my passes, which in turn makes them illegal.

"I think Mike Tomlin has learned his lesson about interfering with play. Going forward, I expect him to mind his P's and Q's, as well as his G's and K's. $100,000 is a lot of money. That can get you a nice motorcycle, or an even better attorney. Everybody knows how much I love attorneys. Nothing gets me off better than a lawyer."

The Bengals raced to a 21-0 lead over the Colts last week and held on for a 42-28 win, keeping their record at Paul Brown Stadium spotless. Cincy could clinch the NFC North title with a win and a Baltimore loss or tie.

"Referee Jeff Triplett blew another replay call," Marvin Lewis said. "Luckily, it went in our favor. There's a reason he's called 'Triplett'; when he's on the field, you get three times the screw ups. That's only one thing more dangerous than Triplett 'under the hood,' and that's Pacman Jones 'in the hood.'"

Pittsburgh wins, 24-22.

Baltimore at Detroit (-7)

The Lions lost in snowy Philadelphia last week, as the weather and an inspired Eagles' defense slowed Detroit's high-scoring offense. Matthew Stafford had only 149 yards passing and no touchdowns in the loss.

"There will be no snow in Ford Field on Monday night," Jim Schwartz said. "The city can't afford it.

"We'll need Ndamukong Suh to get after Joe Flacco. Suh is having his best year as a Lion, and as a human being. But that may change. He said he wants to rip Flacco's head off, but just to see if money falls out."

The Ravens improved to 7-6 with a narrow 29-26 win over the Vikings on Joe Flacco's 9-yard touchdown pass to Marlin Brown with four seconds left.

"What a game!" Joe Flacco said. "Five touchdowns in two minutes. And no, I'm not talking about the Dallas Cowboys' defense.

"The Lions are a cocky bunch. They're also second in the league in giveaways. So, when they're not beating their chests, their beating themselves."

Did Baltimore safety Matt Elam really call Calvin Johnson "pretty old?" Of course, the mild-mannered Megatron took it all in stride, just as he will the passes from Stafford after Johnson toasts Elam.

"Besides," Johnson said, "what's a former Denver kicker doing trash-talking me anyway?"

Detroit wins, 31-27.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:01 PM | Comments (0)

Cutler or McCown?

Joe Bussell at NFL Philosophy has a very interesting piece up about the quandary the Chicago Bears have in terms of their quarterback situation looking beyond 2013. The Cliff Notes are as follows: Jay Cutler, who gets hurt a lot, has gotten hurt again. When he plays, he usually plays well enough to put the Bears in the playoffs. His first season with the Bears, 2009, was a clunker. This year, before he got hurt, he was a un-playoff worthy 4-4 in games that he played in. His record in the three years in between were 10-5, 7-3, and 10-5.

On the other hand, "record" may not be such a great metric to measure a quarterback, which I will elaborate on further below. Even in those three good years, he threw 37 interceptions in those 40 games. The consensus on Cutler seems to be that he is an above-average quarterback, but no star, and I think that's about right. He's in his eighth year in the NFL and we know what to expect from him.

After getting hurt this season, 34-year-old journeyman Josh McCown has stepped into the fold and to everyone's surprise, he has kicked ass: 13 touchdowns, 1 interception. Coming into the season, McCown had had 37 touchdowns and 44 interceptions for his career.

Cutler is in the final year of his contract unless the Bears throw the "franchise tag" on him, in which the team can prevent him from negotiating with other teams, and in return, the player is assured to be paid commensurately with the top five salaries at his position. There's also the non-exclusive franchise tag, which allows the player to negotiate with other teams but then if another team signs him, they have to hammer out a deal with the old team for compensatory draft picks.

The Bears are way under the salary cap so they have room to maneuver here and indeed, can afford to overpay for Cutler. And make no mistake, Cutler is not a top-five quarterback, probably not a top-10 quarterback, so paying him top-five numbers would be to overpay him.

But Bussell makes the case, more or less, that the Bears are better off with Cutler than with McCown and so would be justified putting one of the two franchise tags on him. And I agree, but only as far as the non-exclusive tag, because again, I don't see paying Jay Cutler among the top-five quarterbacks in the league to be a winning strategy. Bussell makes much of McCown's age (34), but Cutler is 30 himself and has not been able to string two non-injury-free seasons together since 2009-2010.

But as Bussell points out, a lot of teams need quarterbacks and Cutler is a way, way, way better option than the Chad Hennes and Christian Ponders teams are throwing out there. The Bears should absolutely try to recoup something on that if Cutler leaves.

Should they let Cutler leave? I lean towards yes. Give McCown the keys to the kingdom. It's risky in that McCown is, once again, 34, and has never played this well before. But I think it's a better risk than asking Cutler to stay injury-free for years and do better than only throw a handful more touchdowns than interceptions.

Bussell has some great stuff expounding on the ways in which McCown has been effective. He's throwing at a 72% clip on aimed throws (which eliminate spikes and throwaways), 4th in the league. He's done it by being a dink-and-dunk guy, a la Alex Smith and Brad Johnson. This is a much-maligned type of quarterback because they can't create the fireworks Tom Brady or Peyton Manning can, which you need for comebacks and just for excitement; fans generally don't like this type of quarterback. But Smith got the job done is San Francisco, is getting the job done in Kansas City, and Johnson won a Super Bowl with Tampa Bay.

And, as Bussell says, that's a particularly workable formula in Chicago, because Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are bruisers rather than speed demons. And here is where age becomes important: Marshall is 29 and Jeffery just 23. If you want to build an offense for the long haul, why not do it around these guys, and find a quarterback that suits their physical, YAC-heavy style?

That would seem to be more McCown than Cutler, and again McCown has been amazing this year, so why aren't the Bears winning? That's Bussell's biggest trump card against McCown. For all his superior stats, the Bears are 3-4 in games where McCown carried most of the load, and 4-3 when Cutler did — and Cutler did it against far tougher opponents.

The sabermetric community has pretty much completely disavowed "wins" as a meaningful statistic for pitchers. Besides batting average, I'm not sure there's a more maligned stat among baseball geeks. So much of whether a pitcher wins or not come down to circumstances beyond his control.

So why on earth is the same logic not applied to quarterbacks? If you've thrown 13 touchdowns against one pick, and only Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers have a higher completion percentage on targeted passes, what the hell else can one ask of you? He has the right receivers for his game and he has the right coach (Bussell calls Marc Trestman "the quarterback whisperer"). Why not try to keep going with that for the next 3-4 years, draft or trade for an heir apparent in 2015 or 16, and use all that fabulous cap space to shore up a defense that's allowing 6 yards per play (30th in the league)?

In short: let Cutler walk, get draft picks for him to augment your copious cap space, use both those things to fix the defense, let McCown do his thing for a couple more years, worry about a franchise quarterback after next year or later. Seems like the best solution to me.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 2:53 AM | Comments (0)

December 11, 2013

Six Mid-Majors to Watch Come March

With the constantly switching conference alignments, defining a mid-major isn't the easiest thing to do anymore. Other than the ACC and the Big Ten, who can we say deserves to be called a power conference? Has the entirety of Division I basketball become a mid-major? Can we really say that the SEC is better than the Atlantic 10? Can we really say that the Big East is better than the Mountain West? And if we can, how long will we be able to say that?

But for now, we'll take a look at teams who have been traditionally looked at as mid-majors (though that may be changing for some of them in the very near future) and look at their chances to make some serious noise come March.

Wichita State

It's not terribly difficult to point out that the Shockers are a true contender for the 2014 NCAA men's basketball tournament. In 2013, Wichita State smashed Pittsburgh in their opening game, then upset top-seeded Gonzaga. The wound up in the Final Four and lost to the eventual champion Louisville Cardinals. The Shockers don't have a terribly difficult schedule. The Missouri Valley conference obviously isn't the best conference, but there are some tough teams for Wichita State to face in Indiana State, Drake, and Missouri State.

The Shockers have already defeated St. Louis and face Tennessee and Alabama in their next two games. If they come out of those two games with wins, an undefeated regular season is already in sight for the Shockers. Already ranked 11 in the Associated Press week five poll, more wins means they could climb as high as No. 2 or 3 by season's end. A No. 1 ranking and another Final Four are not outlandish for the Shockers.

San Diego State

Unlike Wichita State, who has zero ranked teams on their schedule, the Aztecs have already played three ranked teams, defeating Creighton and Marquette and losing by 9 points to Arizona. They also have Kansas on the schedule in early January. I'm not sure how serious voters will take the Aztecs if they don't defeat Kansas, probably only a 5 or a 6 seed — even if they win every other game, which I doubt they will. The Mountain West is hardly mid-major anymore with New Mexico, Boise State, Fresno State, and others who have had success in the past such as UNLV.

If the Aztecs were to beat Kansas, could they find themselves as high as a 3 seed? I guess, but I think they'll be more of a 6 or 7 come tournament time, but that doesn't mean ignore them. Senior guard Xavier Thames has had arguably his best three games against ranked opponents. If he can gather an extra gear for the tournament, he could lead this team deep into the tournament.

Massachusetts

I don't really know what to call the new Atlantic 10. They are one of those conferences, like the Mountain West, that might end up with more teams in the tournament than "power conferences" such as the Pac-12. If voters took the Atlantic 10 seriously enough, six teams could make the tournament. My guess is they'll be limited to three or four, but it looks like UMass will certainly be one of those. They are currently 8-0 with notable wins over Boston College, LSU, Nebraska, New Mexico, Clemson, and BYU. While they have a tough conference schedule with Richmond, Saint Louis, Dayton, and VCU, I think UMass could fight their way to a three or four loss season and end up with a 3 or 4 seed. Their wins thus far have proven they can play with tough teams and win close games, a valuable thing to have learned for the tournament.

Creighton

I don't know what to do with the new Big East, either. Villanova, Georgetown, and Marquette can't be considered mid-majors. Arguments could be made to say Butler is no longer a mid-major. But everybody else in the Big East has been less than dominant for more than a decade. When we look at Creighton, I think we see a team that is certainly still in mid-major phase. With Doug McDermott, this team could be something special. This is McDermott's third year of dominance, but the last two seasons in the Bluejays have run into North Carolina and then Duke in the NCAA tournament.

While plenty of ink will be spilled on McDermott's NBA potential, I wonder if he can conjure enough determination to win a few games in the tournament and make a run. An interesting statistic about Creighton is that they currently are ranked seventh in the country in assists. Perhaps this is the year they manage as a team to do some damage.

Harvard

Harvard has been developing into an intriguing team. After making the NCAA tournament in 1946 (when there were only eight teams and they lost both games they played), they went on a bit of a drought, not making the tournament again until 2012. In 2013, they got their first NCAA tournament victory upsetting New Mexico. Can 2014 bring about a continuation of this success? Thus far, Harvard hasn't been terribly dominant. They beat TCU, but lost to Colorado. Their schedule also contains Boston College and UConn. If they can win even one of those games, I think we can count on Harvard being a team that might win a game or two in the tournament. They probably won't manage much better than an 11 or 12 seed, but that's plenty high to win a couple of games in this era's NCAA tournament.

Toledo

While they may not even make the tournament, the Toledo Rockets have an interesting opportunity to make some noise. Their 95-92 win at Boston College makes me wonder how many other schools of a similar quality they could beat. Boston College is no powerhouse, but they should be able to beat teams like Toledo at home without too much difficulty. Toledo's real test is at Kansas on December 30. If they can keep it close, keep an eye on them come tournament time. It should also be noted that Toledo is a scoring machine. They are currently averaging 90.5 points per game which is third in the nation. They are shooting over 52% from the field, good for fifth in the nation. If they can score 90 points in a tournament game, chances are pretty good they'll win.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 1:18 PM | Comments (0)

Cooperstown Has a Date with an Angell

Roger Angell at 93 still reports to The New Yorker every day to read fiction for the magazine and, here and there, write yet another one of his symphonic essays from the diamonds and the stands. Next summer, he's going to make a trip to Cooperstown as an honored guest.

At long enough last the Hall of Fame has a date with an Angell. He's going to be honored as have the like of Grantland Rice, Ring Lardner, Red Smith, Jim Murray, Damon Runyon, and Shirley Povich. Every one of those men in God's Elysian Fields is now lifting a tall one to the stepson of E.B. White. (White married Angell's mother after her divorce; she was a founding New Yorker editor.) And God is calling them to order to remind them of something I've said before: "Roger Angell isn't baseball's Homer; Homer was ancient Greece's Roger Angell. Homer, siddown and shaddap."

Angell is baseball's prose poet laureate, but don't say it to his face. Perhaps he prefers to be known as the longtime fiction editor of The New Yorker, whose charges included Garrison Keillor ([He] was terribly generous with his praise and apologetic for his criticism and who, if a month passed without submissions from me, would write the most wonderful encouraging letters) and John Updike, and who bumped into a chance to write about the game he's loved.

"I've been accused once in a while of being a poet laureate, which has always sort of pissed me off," he once told Salon writer Steve Kettman, coincidentally the author of the splendid One Day at Fenway and editor of Angell's own anthology Game Time. "That's not what I was trying to do. I think people who said that really haven't read me, because what I've been doing a lot of times is reporting. It's not exactly like everybody else's reporting. I'm reporting about myself, as a fan as well as a baseball writer."

Just like any average everyday American literary editor who goes to spring training, assorted ballparks, or the World Series thinking he's spot reporting but turning out such lyricism as what he turned out in "The Web of the Game" (1981), after watching Ron Darling (then pitching for Yale University) and Frank Viola (then pitching for St. John's University) tangled in Darling's 11 no-hit innings, in a game during the 1981 players' strike, with Smokey Joe Wood (a 34-5/1.91 ERA pitcher for the 1912 Red Sox, then 91 himself) in the audience and, coincidentally, Angell's seat companion:

The two pitchers held us — each as intent and calm and purposeful as the other. Ron Darling, never deviating from the purity of his stylish body-lean and leg-crook and his riding, down-thrusting delivery, poured fastballs through the diminishing daylight ... Viola was dominant in his own fashion, also setting down the Yale hitters one, two, three in the ninth and 10th, with a handful of pitches. His rhythm — the constant variety of speeds and location on his pitches—had the enemy batters leaning and swaying with his motion, and, as antistrophic, was almost as exciting to watch as Darling's flair and flame.

With two out in the top of the 11th, a St. John's batter nudged a soft little roller up the first base line—such an easy, waiting, schoolboy sort of chance that the Yale first baseman, O'Connor, allowed the ball to carom off his mitt: a miserable little butchery, except that the second baseman, seeing his pitcher sprinting for the bag, now snatched up the ball and flipped it toward him almost despairingly. Darling took the toss while diving full-length at the bag and, rolling in the dirt, beat the runner by a hair.

"Oh, my!" said Joe Wood. "Oh, my, oh, my!"

Perhaps one reason it took so long for Angell to have his appointment in Cooperstown is that he is not sound-bite quotable and never has been, or so it seems. Would you rather have the customary sound-bite-angling writing (yes, I've been guilty of such writing myself, and no, I take no pride in that) or something like this, concluding a remarkable study of the late and delightful relief pitcher Dan Quisenberry:

We want our favorites to be great out there, and when that stops we feel betrayed a little. They have not only failed but failed us. Maybe this is the real dividing line between pros and bystanders, between the players and the fans. All the players know that at any moment things can go horribly wrong for them in their line of work — they'll stop hitting, or, if they're pitchers, suddenly find that for some reason they can no longer fling the ball through that invisible sliver of air where it will do their best work for them — and they will have to live with that diminishment, that failure, for a time or even for good. It's part of the game. They are prepared to lose out there in plain sight, while the rest of us do it in private and then pretend it hasn't happened.

Some say Angell's writing has the kind of pastoral quality people like to attribute to baseball itself. The kind of thing, those people sometimes go on to say, that made baseball in the Good Old Days just so much different than the (it is alleged) mercenary high-tech exercise of the Bad New Days. Beware. Angell has loved the game for itself and written of that for its own sake, and his own sake, and he has learned to respect and even adore the game with which he grew up (he was a New York Giants fan in his youth) without wishing to flog it with nostalgia's buggy whip:

The stuff about the connection between baseball and American life, the Field of Dreams thing, gives me a pain. I hated that movie. It's mostly fake. You look back into the meaning of old-time baseball, and really in the early days it was full of roughnecks and drunks. They beat up the umpires and played near saloons. In Field of Dreams there's a line at the end that says the game of baseball was good when America was good, and they're talking about the time of the biggest race riots in the country and Prohibition. What is that? That dreaminess, I really hated that.

Not that he's quite prepared to acquit the contemporary game, its accoutrements in particular. "The modern game is all bangs and effects: it's summer-movie fare, awesome and forgettable—and extremely popular with the ticket-buyers," he wrote in The New Yorker at the turn of the century. He has been a kind of kindred to the late commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti, who lamented likewise the game's embrace of theatrical ballpark gimmicks. But he is an empath obeying particular boundaries of reason with assorted fans of assorted teams, even if his eye burrows a little deeper than theirs, even among Red Sox fans in St. Louis watching generations of extraterrestrial deflation come to a surprising 2004 end:

The Redbird collapse can probably be laid to weak pitching, unless you decide that the baseball gods, a little surfeited by the cruel jokes and disappointments they have inflicted on the Boston team and its followers down the years, and perhaps as sick of the Curse of the Bambino as the rest of us, decided to try a little tenderness.

This notion came to me in the sixth game of the scarifying American League Championship, when Gary Sheffield, swinging violently against Schilling with a teammate at first, topped a little nubber that rolled gently toward Sox third baseman Bill Mueller, then unexpectedly bumped into the bag and hopped up over his glove: base hit. Nothing ensued, as [Curt] Schilling quickly dismissed the next three Yankee hitters, but the tiny bank shot, which is not all that rare in the sport, was the sort of wrinkle that once could have invited a larger, grossly unfair complication and perhaps even a new vitrine next to [Bill] Buckner's muff or [Aaron] Boone's shot in the ghastly Sox gallery. You could almost envision the grin upstairs.

Instead, looking back at the action up till now — the Yankees' daunting three-game lead after the first three meetings of this championship elimination; their nineteen runs in the Game Three blowout; and then the Sox' two comeback wins achieved across the next two games or twenty-six innings or 10 hours and 51 minutes of consuming, astounding baseball—the old god feels an unfamiliar coal of pity within. "Ah, well," he murmurs, turning away. "Let it go."

Because he was never a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America, whose membership is restricted pretty much to beat writers, and because he worked for a literary magazine instead of a sporting journal, Angell has enjoyed a kind of freedom of the soul that most baseball writers don't dare imagine. (It also may be why it took this long to think of him as Hall of Fame material in consecrated fact as opposed to article of faith.) Legendary New Yorker editor William Shawn sent Angell to spring training in 1962 with one instruction: "See what you find." Little did Shawn know what he'd wreaked.

Angell subsequently found the Original Mets and their equally surrealistic fans. "[T]hat was very lucky for me when I thought it out. It occurred to me fairly early on that nobody was writing about the fans," he told Kettman. "I was a fan, and I felt more like a fan than a sportswriter. I spent a lot of time in the stands, and I was sort of nervous in the clubhouse or the press box. And that was a great fan story, the first year of the Mets. They were these terrific losers that New York took to its heart."

He would go forth to write with comparable eloquence on such as the dominance of Sandy Koufax; the miscomprehended "Distance" (his title) of Bob Gibson; the unfathomable collapse of Steve Blass (a Pirates pitching stalwart and World Series hero one moment, unable to reach the strike zone without disaster the next, so it seemed); the trans-dimensional 1975 World Series; the labor disputes in the free agency era; the pride of such men as Tom Seaver and Reggie Jackson; the foolishness of such men as Pete Rose; and the staggering, jagged contrast between two Bay Area owners, Charles Finley (Athletics) and Horace Stoneham (Giants):

Baseball as occasion — the enjoyment and company of the game — apparently means nothing to him. Finley is generally reputed to be without friends, and his treatment of his players has been characterized by habitual suspicion, truculence, inconsistency, public abasement, impatience, flattery, parsimony, and ingratitude. He also wins.

Horace Stoneham is — well, most of all he is not Charlie Finley ... He is shy, self-effacing, and apparently incapable of public attitudinizing. He attends every home game but is seldom recognizable even by the hoariest Giants fans ... In 1972, when his dwindling financial resources forced him at last to trade away Willie Mays, perhaps the greatest Giant of them all, he arranged a deal that permitted Mays to move along to the Mets with a salary and a subsequent retirement plan that would guarantee his comfort for the rest of his life...

...[W]hen I read that the San Francisco Giants were up for sale, it suddenly came to me that the baseball magnate I really wanted to spend an afternoon with was Horace Stoneham. I got on the telephone to some friends of mine and his (I had never met him), and explained that I did not want to discuss attendance figures or sales prices with him but just wanted to talk baseball. Stoneham called me back in less than an hour. "Come on out," he said in a cheerful, gravelly Polo Grounds sort of voice. "Come out, and we'll go to the game together."

That was part of "The Companions of the Game," published in The New Yorker in 1975 and republished in two subsequent Angell anthologies, Five Seasons and Game Time. Angell's anthologies have been subtitled, invariably, A Baseball Companion. He has been that through his reporting and writing, which has been in turn that and more to those who've had the pleasure and the good taste to read it.

It's a very safe bet that when he accepts the honor long overdue next July, Angell will do so with such graciousness that he'll provoke just the reaction his writings provoke. That you'd love nothing better than to have him as a game companion even once.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 12:45 PM | Comments (0)

December 10, 2013

NFL Week 14 and Drama in Washington

Five Quick Hits

* This hasn't made much noise nationally, but Cincinnati's talented young guard Clint Boling is out for the rest of the season. Losing a guard probably isn't the end of the world, as this week's offensive explosion would imply, but Boling's probably their best lineman.

* Every team in the AFC South has been outscored this season, by a combined 200 points. We made fun of the NFC East in September and October, but that's a stronger division.

* Three weeks ago, we all made a big deal out of the Eagles finally winning a home game. They've now won three in a row.

* I can't remember a season with such drastic homefield advantage for so many teams. Collectively, the league is 128-79-1 (.618) at home. That means an average team might go 10-6 if it only played at home.

* Eight teams particularly stand out right now:

Those teams are a combined 45-8 at home, compared to 15-35-1 away. That doesn't even include the league's most famous (and probably most significant) homefield advantage, in Seattle, simply because the Seahawks are so good they haven't lost much on the road, either, but they're far more intimidating at home. In the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, the Ravens are 39-8 at home and 22-24 on the road.

The Mess in Washington

In Week 14, Washington drew the lowest attendance in the 16-year history of its stadium, fell behind 31-0 and lost 45-10, yielded 6 sacks to an opponent with only 1 in its last four games combined, and gave up 2 return TDs on special teams. And yet, all that is overshadowed by the messy drama with Robert Griffin III, Mike Shanahan, and Daniel Snyder. You could write a dissertation on the team's broken culture, but I'm going to try for the short version:

1. Daniel Snyder is a meddlesome owner. He has all the bad traits of a George Steinbrenner or Al Davis, and none of the good ones. He's never respected any of his coaches, and he likes feeling important more than he cares about winning. Snyder habitually subverts the authority of his coaches to strengthen his relationship with players like Clinton Portis and RG3.

2. The players do not like or trust Mike Shanahan. Shanahan has failed at the interpersonal aspect of coaching, and he has assembled a coaching staff with at least two high-profile washouts (defensive coordinator Jim Haslett and special teams catastrophe Keith Burns). In recent days, he has burned bridges with the team owner and the franchise quarterback. His statements in the media and his continued support of Burns have led to speculation that he is trying to force Snyder to fire him.

3. We have ruined RG3. We have — fans and the media. From Day One, Robert conducted himself like a leader on and off the field. When the regular season began, he looked even more special, with one of the great rookie seasons of all time. We couldn't stop telling him how great he was. The home crowd in Washington audibly chanted, "R-G-3," like Griffin was the team. In the ongoing controversy about the team name, people even suggested "Washington Griffins" (and the proposed logos, based on the mythical gryphon, were awesome).

Then he got hurt. He played when he was nowhere near 100%, and probably cost the team a playoff win. Griffin assumed he could return on the same timetable as Adrian Peterson had. He became a celebrity and gave weekly press conferences in the offseason. He had dinner with the owner. He complained about how the coaches used him. He treated all criticism as unfair, and deflected blame towards his teammates and coaches. We gave RG3 his god complex. We turned him into Michael Vick.

There are no innocent parties here; all three are at least partly to blame. Griffin has regressed, but he is a great talent. He's only 23, and he'll play better when he's further removed from his knee injury. Mike Shanahan has to go. It's not out of the question that he could put together another run like last year's, and winning hides a lot of problems. But that would just be a Band-Aid. He has no long-term future with the team, and he'll hold it back from real progress as long as he's in charge. It may not be necessary to fire him immediately, but he can't coach this team in 2014.

Most fundamentally, the problems continue to lie with Dan Snyder. He needs to hire a real GM, defer to the head coach, and stay out of the way. He's shown more restraint the last few years, though that may be only because Shanahan's contract obligated him to. And yet, Griffin's relationship with Snyder is the lightning rod that powers the present mayhem. When there's not a real head coach with real authority, sustained success is impossible. Just in the past decade, we saw this with Jim Zorn in Washington, the Raiders in Al Davis' last years, the Saints without Sean Payton, Gary Kubiak this year, the Bills ever since Marv Levy retired. Snyder's ownership has been characterized by immaturity, impatience, and megalomania. The thing holding the team back is that he's the one running it.

Thursday Night Game

* The Texans outgained Jacksonville 406-281 and 23 first downs to 18. They converted twice as many third downs (8-4), with a better percentage (47%-29%). They won time of possession by more than 10 minutes. And yet they lost. The main culprits were two turnovers and 14 penalties for 177 yards. Houston had 115 penalty yards by halftime.

* I like NFL Network play-by-play announcer Brad Nessler. He's prepared and professional, he understands the game, and he doesn't treat the audience like we're stupid. But Nessler said during the telecast, "[Shane] Lechler's one of the best in the business at knockin' it out inside the 20 or the 10." That literally could not be more wrong. The subsequent punt did get downed at the 4, but Lechler's career ratio of punts down inside the 20 to touchbacks (2.35 to 1) is the worst in the history of the NFL.

* I've written 100 times before how much I hate firing coaches during the season. Gary Kubiak led Houston to back-to-back division titles, then had one bad season — not even one bad season, three-quarters of a bad season — and got fired. Arian Foster and Brian Cushing got injured, fans turned on his best quarterback, and he had a mini-stroke on the field. Yes, it's a nightmare season, but give the guy a break.

* Maurice Jones-Drew strained a hamstring during the win, but for now it sounds like he'll play in Week 15.

Sunday, Early Games

* The Ravens and Vikings exchanged leads a record six times during the fourth quarter of Sunday's game. It was very exciting, but it was awful football, and both teams should be embarrassed. Tony Dungy, who said on NBC that "good teams like New England and Baltimore know how to keep their poise in the final minutes," obviously didn't watch the Minnesota game. When there are five touchdowns in 2:05, that's not "keeping poised," it's losing your stuff just a tiny bit less than the other team.

Down by a field goal, the Vikings got possession at their own 32-yard line with 2:05 to play. They gained 68 yards and the go-ahead score in two plays, torching Baltimore's defense. But Minnesota wasn't poised either: on the ensuing kickoff, Blair Walsh floated a ridiculous short kick to Jacoby Jones, who ran it back for a touchdown. The Vikings got the ball back and went 79 yards in three plays and 31 seconds. That's the opposite of poise, I think. The Ravens' defense totally fell apart in the last two minutes. But the Vikings were just as bad, and the clock ran out while Baltimore was ahead. Super exciting, but not the sort of thing that makes you think either of these are good teams.

* Baltimore benefitted from one of the most shocking upheld replays I have ever seen, Toby Gerhart's "fumble" in the first half. I don't know what Pete Morelli saw, but Gerhart's knee was unmistakably down. In the Bengals/Colts game, Jeff Triplette — who last week took Washington directly from first down to fourth — upped the ante with a questionable replay ruling of his own, on a BenJarvus Green-Ellis TD.

* The wild finish in Baltimore rightly stole early headlines, but you have to feel bad for Cleveland, which led the Patriots 12-0 in the third quarter, and 26-14 with 2:39 remaining. Thanks to a touchdown, onside kick, imaginary pass interference, and another touchdown, New England won. I'm not in the habit of rooting for the Patriots, but this isn't about hating anyone, it's about feeling sorry for the Browns.

* I suspect New England would happily trade the win for Rob Gronkowski's knee. He is out for the season with a torn ACL and MCL. That's a huge loss. When Gronk played this season, the Pats averaged 29.1 points per game, compared to 20.8 without him. Tom Brady averaged 230 yards and a 79.5 passer rating without Gronk, compared to 298 yards and a 95.8 rating with him.

* Josh Gordon gained at least 150 receiving yards for the third game in a row, and passed Calvin Johnson for the NFL lead in receiving yardage (1,400).

* The major themes this weekend were frigid weather and close games with exciting finishes. The combination was best embodied in Baltimore, with a ridiculous fourth quarter and the backdrop of a snowy field and freezing temperatures, but in Green Bay, the Packers quietly re-entered serious playoff contention, with a 22-21 comeback victory over the Falcons in 9° temperatures (-1° wind chill).

* For sheer difficulty of weather conditions, you can't top Philadelphia, where the field was blanketed by snow so heavy that neither team successfully kicked a field goal or extra point. In a game with eight touchdowns, the teams combined for seven two-point conversion attempts (three successful) and one blocked PAT.

* The weather didn't slow LeSean McCoy, who rushed for an Eagles-record 217 yards and passed Adrian Peterson for the NFL lead (1,305). McCoy broke the team record set by Hall of Famer Steve Van Buren, another legendary bad-weather runner. In the 1949 NFL Championship Game, Van Buren set a title-game record that stood for 40 years, rushing for 196 yards in ankle-deep mud. In the previous title game, with snow so severe that Van Buren was late to the stadium because he assumed the game would be cancelled, he had rushed for 98 yards and the game's only touchdown.

* The Buccaneers whomped Buffalo 27-6. Tampa QB Mike Glennon in the win: 9/25, 81 net yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 40.4 rating. Bobby Rainey had a good day, the Bucs' defense intercepted 4 passes, and the Bills committed 114 yards in penalties.

Sunday, Late Games

* Eli Manning threw another 2 interceptions this weekend, his third season with at least 20 INTs. Worst TD/INT differential, min. 100 attempts:

1. Geno Smith, -11
2. Terrelle Pryor, -5
3. Eli Manning, -4
t4. Chad Henne, -2
t4. Christian Ponder, -2

Peyton Manning is +36.

* All week, NFL "experts" warned that Peyton Manning was 3-7 in freezing temperatures. This stat conveniently ignores that all but one were road games, and several came in the playoffs against good teams. Manning's cold-weather struggles continued, as he passed for only 397 yards, 4 TDs, and a 107.8 passer rating in the Broncos' 51-28 victory. Denver gained 39 first downs, one shy of the single-game record set by New Orleans last month.

* Matt Prater made a 64-yard field goal on Sunday. That's an NFL record, though I agree with Cris Collinsworth about the thin air in Denver and Tom Dempsey.

* Collinsworth, like many pundits, spoke this weekend about Cam Newton's development as a player and a team leader. "We have seen fourth-quarter magic from him that we had not seen in the past." The stats do not bear this out. Newton's fourth-quarter passer ratings:

2012: 94.8
2013: 89.6

Fourth-quarter and the score within seven points:

2012: 96.5
2013: 76.1

In 2012, Newton four times led go-ahead drives in the fourth-quarter, only to watch his defense give up the lead. The difference this year isn't Newton, it's the Carolina defense. This is obvious if you give the matter any consideration. Cam Newton was awesome his first two seasons. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and broke numerous rookie records, and his success probably inspired teams to let players like RG3 and Russell Wilson run the read-option. Statistically, this season is very much in line with Newton's previous performances, except that now his team is holding onto leads and winning close games. We are much too quick to equate team success with the quarterback.

Monday Night Football

* Jon Gruden: "This Cowboy defense, they have to find something that they can do well. Tonight it's been nothing." The Bears scored on every drive and didn't punt all game. Only three teams have done that this season, and two have been against the Cowboys.

* This was the second time in the last month that the Dallas defense has been humiliated on national television, and the sixth game in a row that they've allowed over 20 points.

* This game was the Gruden Bowl. Not only was he announcing for ESPN, his old assistants were all over the place. His defensive coordinator from Tampa Bay, Monte Kiffin, is now DC for the Cowboys. His old offensive coordinator from Oakland, Bill Callahan, is OC for the Cowboys. Bears head coach Marc Trestman was an assistant to Gruden in Oakland.

* It's not at all obvious to me that the Bears are better with Jay Cutler than Josh McCown. McCown got lucky on a couple of dropped interceptions Monday night, but he's played well for weeks and he's far ahead of Cutler in efficiency stats, including a 109.8-88.4 edge in passer rating.

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Top 10

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. New Orleans Saints
5. Carolina Panthers
6. New England Patriots
7. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Arizona Cardinals
10. Miami Dolphins

The 49ers lost to the Saints last month, but in New Orleans and only by a field goal — and that was without Michael Crabtree or Aldon Smith. I think they're the better team right now. The Saints' problems on the road limit their rating for the same reason the Baltimore Ravens (three wins in a row, all at home) don't crack the top 10. Those three wins all came against teams with losing records, and two of them came down to the final minute. The Ravens are 1-5 on the road.

Bottom Three

30. Cleveland
31. Houston
32. Washington

I actually think the Texans, losers of 11 straight, might be worse than Washington, but teams often seem to pick it up in their first week or two after the head coach gets fired, so I'll slide them ahead on that theory.

Click here for the NFL Week 13 Report.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:19 PM | Comments (0)

December 9, 2013

Mariners Show Cano What Yanks Wouldn't

There was a little is-he-is-or-is-he-ain't talk early but that dissipated soon enough to affirm. Robinson Cano is going to Seattle. If nothing else, Washington state's lack of an income tax makes his 10 years and $240 million an even nicer payday than it would have been if the Yankees had been willing to go above and beyond their $170 million to keep the second baseman.

Not that the Yankees were necessarily worried. Lose Cano, gain Jacoby Ellsbury. Lose Curtis Granderson, gain Carlos Beltran. Just days after showing Ellsbury the dollars, they showed them to the erstwhile Cardinals and (in case you've forgotten that these things matter to the Yankees) Mets right fielder. They've just given Beltran three years at $45 million. The Mets have just given Granderson four years and $60 million, hoping Citi Field won't damage Granderson's left handed power swing and enable him to put some punch into an outfield without any to speak of.

Their willingness to let Cano go rather than give in to his initial or even secondary demands enabled the Yankees to think about Brian McCann, Ellsbury and Beltran in the first place, and there's something oddly ennobling about the Yankees sticking to their $189 million budget guns. Ennobling and, on another level, disturbing.

For one thing, the Yankees need to find a reasonable way to solve a monetarily glittering outfield logjam. They have six outfielders worth approximately $90 million in current or next season's salary terms. Four of them will be on the far side of 35 come Opening Day: Beltran, Vernon Wells (35), Alfonso Soriano (37), and Ichiro Suzuki (40).

We'll know soon enough whether the Jay-Z factor was that powerful, notwithstanding the talk that the rapper/agent dropped a demand or three on the Mariners at one point that left their management reaching for the still. For every one who thinks the man who lured Cano out of Scott Boras's stables is looking smart, there's another thinking other agents are telling their clients it isn't always a bright idea to be represented by someone who's represented himself.

But this isn't even close to saying the Yankees are the good guys here. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated took special pains to remind one and all that this was, in several senses, Albert Pujols Mk.2: The Angels out-bid the Cardinals by $44 million — "not counting the $30 million in deferred money in St. Louis's offer and before the Cardinals cut a 10-year offer in half. Pujols later would say he was 'bitter' about the way the St. Louis front office made him look 'like the bad guy.'

"This departure has a similar smell," Verducci continues. "This time the Mariners offered Cano as much as $70 million more than New York. Real money. And Cano can look back at the New York front office the way Pujols did his former employers." Exactly why the Yankees played that kind of hardball with Cano only to settle for talented but lesser players in the interim may not be known for a good while.

To the Yankees, it seems barely to have crossed Cano's mind that he just might have yanked in the equivalent of $240 million in ten years if he'd taken the Yankees' lesser contract offer but kept the thing he can't have in Seattle no matter how much television money the Mariners now have to play with: his extracurricular marketability. To the Mariners and to maybe everyone else in baseball, it seems barely to have crossed the Yankees' minds that in losing Cano they lost a free agent that in their hearts of hearts they really wanted to keep.

We'll know soon enough to what extent the Cano signing improves the Mariners' American League West prospects. The Yankees would have looked remarkable if they'd retained Cano; the Mariners won't look terrible for having signed him. But Cano won't solve the Marines' backline problems.

He might make the Mariners relevant, but he might discover the hard way what Alex Rodriguez once discovered a decade and gazillions wouldn't buy in Texas: even he can't yank a so-so team into instant contention, never mind championship. Then the Rangers thought they could solve a horror of a team ERA by handing the moon and several planets to a shortstop. Are the Mariners really thinking they can solve a .237 offense with one second baseman?

Unless the Mariners have cards to play that they've kept hidden in a mayonnaise jar somewhere — the trade theories continue to abound around them — don't be shocked if they listen when someone else offers to take Cano off their hands in three years, maybe four, either. But they're praying that their first ever championship comes before Cano becomes their albatross.

How the Yankees and the Mets make out with their new toys is anyone's guess, too. Remember that nobody predicted Albert Pujols would need a little over a month to horse himself with the Angels or that his foot would become his and their nightmare in his second Angels season. And both Beltran and Granderson have injury histories, even if they've usually played up to their salaries when healthy.

Beltran comes fresh from a team whose Series loss wasn't even close to his fault. (He was batting with a 1-1 count in the ninth in Game 4 when Koji Uehara whipped that shazam! throw to first—hoping only to hold Kolten Wong to the pad — and picked Wong off to end the game.) But Beltran is four years older than Granderson, whose 2013 was lost mostly to a broken forearm and a fractured pinkie. The switch-hitting Beltran just might find Yankee Stadium's right field porch a delight; the left-handed Granderson will have 16 feet further to reach hitting in Citi Field.

Meanwhile, don't fret about the Red Sox. They're dancing with the ones that brung them their third World Series rings in 10 seasons: the lower-priced spreads with the higher flavor yields. They've re-upped Mike Napoli for two years and $32 million. They've signed erstwhile Cardinals closer Edward Mujica (37 saves for the Cardinals in 2013, before a shoulder strain and late slump bumped him in favor of Trevor Rosenthal) for two years and as-yet-undisclosed terms, just in case Uehara (on the threshold of 39-years-old) doesn't have another superseason in him.

Red Sox manager John Farrell said in a radio interview earlier in the week that they would do everything they could to keep Napoli, who proved a big key to their World Series winner, and who made it clear he wanted to stay in Boston despite the Rangers trying to romance him back while he tested his market. He's getting a nice raise after settling for a single-year deal when his hip condition became known to the Red Sox last winter.

Farrell also said the Red Sox would do likewise to keep Stephen Drew, whose modest bat is usually offset by his solid shortstop defense.

Yet again, the Yankees and the Red Sox have different ways of doing business with all the dollars they have to play with. The Yankees think they can afford to lose franchise players and top guns not named Derek Jeter; the Red Sox think losing a near-superstar means they'd better lock down their most useful lessers and, while they're at it, pick up a few more lessers who fit their current culture. Lose Ellsbury (and Jarrod Saltalamacchia), secure Napoli and gain Mujica and A.J. Pierzynski.

Without any logjam to break or backline problems yet to solve.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 9:31 PM | Comments (0)

Putting the Young Season Into Song

You might know that in recent days, the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area, of which I am a resident of, has been hit with a good amount of ice, sleet, and freezing rain. And while the storm has passed, the temperature has stayed below freezing, causing travel nightmares and knocking out power for many.

(Cue people from the Northeast, Midwest and Mountain West cackling over Texas freaking out about temperatures in the 20s.)

So, unless absolutely necessary, most everyone I know stayed in this weekend. Since the weather kept 25-year-old, single me in on a Friday night, I found other things to keep myself busy, such as watch the MAC Championship Game and the Baylor/Kentucky basketball game from AT&T Stadium in equally icy Arlington, Texas. But one of the things I ended up doing with the newfound time in was do what many other music lovers are doing at this time of year: compiling a list of the best albums of the year.

As I sorted through the list, which kept expanding and expanding as the evening went on and I remembered more good music from the last 12 months, I realized that there are some tracks on the respective albums that relate to the young NBA season. So here are five songs that I've associated with teams so far.

Brooklyn Nets

Drake — "Worst Behavior"

Regardless of whether or not you've heard "Nothing Was the Same," you probably knew where this was going when you read the song title. To call Brooklyn's season a dumpster fire would be to compliment dumpster fires everywhere. Right now, Brooklyn's season is a napalmed and carpet-bombed dumpster with the entire block in a blaze, as well.

No one could have imagined such an awful start to the season for the Nets even in a worst-case scenario, what with two future Hall of Famers, the league's top offensive center, a top-10 point guard (and top-five on talent) and a solid shooting guard. Yes, there have been injuries, but Jason Kidd is clearly in over his head and Dray Blatche of all people is outplaying Kevin Garnett. They can't score, can't defend, can't run and can't rebound. Plus, Billy King completely mortgaged the team's draft future to get Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and Garnett.

Portland Trail Blazers

Disclosure ft. Sam Smith — "Latch"

"If there are boundaries, I will try to knock them down," British angel-voiced singer Sam Smith belts in this collaboration with the amazing dance duo Disclosure. Right now, the Blazers are acting like the boundaries are endless for their season, and like no one told them they were supposed to be third or fourth in their our division. Portland is at the very top of the Western Conference after winning 15 of 16 before Saturday's loss to Dallas and a Monta Ellis buzzer-beater.

The Blazers have had the most consistent starting lineup in the league, with a Damian Lillard/Wes Matthews/Nic Batum/LaMarcus Aldridge/Robin Lopez group starting every game of the year so far. In the nearly 20 minutes that group averages on the floor together per game, the five players outscore opponents by 11.3 points per 100 possessions and shoot 44 percent from behind the three-point line.

College hoops nerds like myself aren't surprised at all that Damian Lillard is a star and was Rookie of the Year last year. But what is surprising is just how stellar he is from behind the arc. This season, he's hit a Steph Curry-esque 42 percent of threes, better than any season of his college career at Weber State. LaMarcus Aldridge also looks like he's rebounded from a disappointing 2012-13 season, averaging 20 shots a game for the league's most efficient offense.

Los Angeles Lakers

David Bowie — "Where Are We Now?"

Yes, it's 2013 and I have a David Bowie song on here. I'm traditionally against loving new music from artists 30-40 years past their best work, but Bowie's "The Next Day" is a good album. So maybe, just maybe, Kobe Bryant be at his best after his recent return, like Bowie's recent work. But for now, all I really have to say is, "So?"

Despite the Lakers releasing a ridiculous hype video on Friday to announce Kobe's Sunday return against the Raptors, the reality remains that, with or without him, it's just not that great a team. Yes, the Lakers have successfully treaded enough water to be above .500, but they've been outscored on the season by a point and a half per contest, usually a sign of winning a couple of games they shouldn't have. Right now, L.A.'s biggest pleasant surprise has surely been Jodie Meeks, but he plays the same two-guard position as Kobe. Plus, the Lakers are neither good on offense nor defense compared to league averages, and Pau Gasol continues to disappoint under the up-tempo style of Mike D'Antoni.

Boston Celtics

Daft Punk ft. Pharrell — "Get Lucky"

I know, it's kind of bizarre to associate one of 2013's quintessential jams with a team that was 9-12 as of Sunday. But hear me out. Somebody has to win the Atlantic Division and claim the fourth seed in the East. Right now, the Celtics look as good as anybody in in that five-team mess, especially when considering that this is a complete rebuilding year.

Furthermore, it's clear that Brad Stevens can absolutely coach, and coach at a high level in the NBA. While I thought Stevens would be a good NBA coach, Boston still took on a massive risk by employing a college coach that never really had surefire NBA-caliber athletes at his disposal at Butler (Gordon Hayward aside). But now, when you consider all the draft picks that the Celtics will have thanks to the Garnett and Pierce deal, plus the possibility that a Rajon Rondo trade could bring more pieces, the future looks bright, and could somehow end in a playoff campaign not even 12 months after trading away two legends.

Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat

Phoenix — "Entertainment"

It hasn't been the best week or so for Miami, as the two-time defending champs lost by double digits to Detroit and Chicago, while the Pacers got road wins at the Clippers and the Spurs during their second-longest Western road trip of the season. And over the weekend, rumors floated that Dwyane Wade's knee issues could cause the team to trade the three-time champion. That frankly seems preposterous, since no one the Heat could get could possibly fit into Miami's system like Wade does, especially on offense.

However, Miami often looked its dominant best during a 10-game winning streak that ended with the Detroit game. Once Wade returned Saturday, Miami won at Minnesota by 21. Tuesday, the Heat and Pacers hook up for the first of four meetings this season, all of which can be seen on national TV (assuming you get NBATV). With the Western Conference so loaded with quality and varied playoff matchups year after year, and the putrid state of the East from three to 15, this is the league's best rivalry and it's not close. The four games these two play over the next five months should, barring catastrophic injury, merely be the appetizer to another seven-game series in the East Finals, something every basketball fan should want to see again.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 6:54 PM | Comments (0)

December 5, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 14

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

Houston @ Jacksonville (+2½)

The 3-9 Jaguars host the 2-10 Texans on Thursday Night Football in a game in which there will be one winner, which is exactly one more than the number of playoff implications involved. The Jaguars upset the Browns 32-28 last week on Cecil Shorts 20-yard TD grab from Chad Henne with 40 seconds left.

"Cecil came up big," Gus Bradley said. "Since Justin Blackmon's been out because of a drug suspension, Shorts has worn the pants for this receiving corps. As such, it's important we keep our Shorts 'clean.'

"I hear the NFL may be canceling the practice of blacking out games locally. That's just what our fans need — another reason to stay home. And if we ever lose sponsorship, EverBank Stadium could very well become 'NeverFull Stadium.'"

The Texans lost their tenth-straight game, a 34-31 loss to the Patriots, and are now 2-10, dead last in the AFC South. Houston's Antonio Smith all but accused New England of spying in post-game interviews, then later claimed he wasn't serious.

"The Pats sure seemed to know what we were doing," Smith said. "With a nine-game losing streak, I'm sure it didn't take them long to figure it out.

"Gary Kubiak will be back on the sidelines after two games of coaching from the upstairs booth. It's a good thing he didn't 'fall out' up there. Anyway, he's doing well. And, in a game between two teams with a combined five wins, he surely won't be seeing stars."

Jacksonville wins, 23-20.

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati (-5½)

The Colts and Bengals face off in a battle of division leaders fighting to strengthen their holds on their respective division leads. The 8-4 Bengals beat the Chargers 17-10 in San Diego last week, and are 5-0 at home this season.

"We've got 'Jungle Fever,'" Marvin Lewis said. "Andy Dalton has a particularly perplexing case of it. He's hot one game, he's cold the next.

"But we're prepared for the Colts. It's been a great week of practice. With a nod to Mike Tomlin, we had a 'run-through' that got everyone talking."

The Colts rebounded from their Week 12 blowout loss to the Cardinals with an important 22-14 win over Tennessee last week. Adam Vinatieri kicked five field goals, four of 40 yards or longer, and the Colts sealed it with Donald Brown's touchdown run late in the fourth quarter.

"With apologies to Andrew Luck," Chuck Pagano said, "Adam is the key to this organization's long-range plans. He's got more leg than Antonio Cromartie. Adam's the oldest player in the league, but I don't see him kicking the bucket anytime soon, unless a bucket is substituted for a football. Judging by the recent incompetence of NFL officials, it could happen.

"We benched Trent Richardson in favor of Brown, and as you would expect, Trent wasn't happy. You could say he did and he didn't take the news sitting down. Trent hasn't been a total disappointment. We traded for him because our running game needed a power back, and Trent's been a 'downhill' runner since he got here."

Cincinnati wins, 31-21.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7)

The Packers fell to 5-6-1 after their 40-10 Thanksgiving Day loss in Detroit as the fired-up Lions pounded quarterback Matt Flynn.

"All this talk of 'scum bags' and 'dirt bags,'" Mike McCarthy said, "and no mention by Josh Sitton of 'wind bags.' I'm not sure what upset the Lions more: Josh giving them some bulletin board material, or someone reading it for them.

"We may decide to sit Aaron Rodgers for the rest of the season. We can't risk him re-injuring his collarbone. Aaron is the face of this franchise, and in this situation, it's important to save face."

The Falcons topped the Bills 34-31 in overtime in Toronto last week, snapping a five-game losing streak. Now 3-9, they'll try to make it two in a row at chilly Lambeau Field.

"Temperatures are forecast in the teens," Mike Smith said. "And so is Lawrence Taylor's date, as well as our number of losses this season. With L.T. in mind, we've got to go out there like a bunch of crazed dogs. There are some who say our defense plays like a bunch of crazed dogs, because they'll 'bite' on anything."

Atlanta wins, 27-24.

Cleveland @ New England (-12)

The Patriots overcame a 17-7 halftime deficit in Houston and roared back to win 34-31, with the decisive points coming on Stephen Gostkowski's 53-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter. Afterwards, Houston's Antonio Smith implied that the Patriots cheated and knew what plays the Texans were running.

"'I Spy' a bitter loser," Tom Brady said. "We are not cheaters, because cheaters never win.

"Spying accusations are not taken lightly in New England. Heck, they're barely taken seriously. But let's be real. History has shown us that no matter what a Patriot is accused of, he should always plead innocent."

Despite a huge day from Josh Gordon, who had 10 catches for 261 yards and two touchdowns, the Browns lost 32-28 to the Jaguars. Cleveland is 4-8, last in the AFC North.

"Josh became the first player in history to record two consecutive 200-yard receiving games," Brandon Weeden said. "That's something no one's ever done, not Calvin Johnson, not Randy Moss, not even Jerry Rice. But it gets even better for Josh. According to the NFL's substance abuse policy, he's done way more than those guys."

The Patriots uncharacteristically race to a 14-0 lead, and subdue Gordon with a scheme designed specifically for the dynamic Gordon, in which physical cornerback Aqib Talib stays in his face along with safety help over the top. Gordon later lauds the scheme, dubbing it "sticky icky" coverage.

New England wins, 34-16.

Oakland @ NY Jets (-2½)

The Jets were held to 177 yards of total offense in a lopsided 23-3 loss to the Dolphins. An ineffective Geno Smith was benched in the second half in favor of Matt Simms, who was equally as ineffective.

"I felt a switch was necessary," Rex Ryan said. "I've insisted all along that Geno was a 'game-changer,' and I just proved it.

"Matt is the son of Phil Simms, who won two Super Bowls with the Giants. In this case, the apple fell miles from the tree. If we're going to use apples as metaphors for bad quarterbacks, then we really have some 'Big Apples.' And I even have bigger cojones for starting Geno."

The Raiders hung tough in Dallas on Thanksgiving before falling 31-24 to the Cowboys. Oakland is 4-8 and in last in the AFC West.

"Once upon a time," Dennis Allen said, "a game between the 8-2 Raiders and 7-3 Jets was preempted by a broadcast of Heidi. What's harder to believe — that anyone would want to watch Heidi, or a game between the Raiders and Jets in which both teams have winning records?"

New York wins, 24-13.

Detroit @ Philadelphia (-2½)

The Lions pummeled the Packers 40-10 on Thanksgiving and remained in a tie atop the NFC North with the 7-5 Bears. Detroit sacked Matt Flynn 7 times and held the Packers to 126 total yards.

"We just made Josh Sitton put a foot in his mouth," Jim Schwartz said. "Surprisingly, it wasn't Ndamukong Suh's."

The Eagles kept pace with the Cowboys in the NFC East with a 24-21 win over the Cardinals at Lincoln Financial Field. Nick Foles passed for 3 touchdowns, all to tight ends. Philly and Dallas are 7-5 atop the division.

"We found a hole in the Cardinals' defense and exploited it," Chip Kelly said. "Apparently, that hole was as big as the one in Mike Tomlin's wallet."

Philadelphia wins, 28-24.

Miami @ Pittsburgh (-3)

The Steelers lost a nail-biter in Baltimore on Thanksgiving, failing to convert a two-point conversion to tie in a 22-20 loss. Pittsburgh is now 5-7 in the AFC North.

"We're going for our sixth win on the year," Mike Tomlin said. "It's apparently a big deal, because I can't seem to avoid all this talk about 'six-figures.'

"Did I interfere on Jacoby Jones' kickoff return in Baltimore? I've denied it, but most say I got caught. That's bull. This is the NFL; everybody knows if you don't have two feet inbounds, it's not a 'catch.'"

The Dolphins put a hurting on the Jets last week, whipping Rex Ryan's struggling team 23-3 at MetLife Stadium. Miami is now 6-6 and in much better standing the AFC wildcard race.

"Richie Incognito will likely never play for the Dolphins again," Joe Philbin said. "But that doesn't mean his career is over. You know who needs a little 'Incognito?' Mike Tomlin and his kickoff coverage, that's who.

"Mike Wallace will make his return to Pittsburgh. I'm sure the grateful Pittsburgh fans will sing his praises, because Mike's likely to be greeted by a 'chorus' of boos."

Philbin eschews his usual sideline attire of khakis and polo shirt for a double-breasted suit and alligator-skin loafers, introducing the Dolphins' new and improved "locker room couture."

On the other hand, Tomlin shows up with a gold chain/shock collar around his neck, complemented with an invisible fence installed along the Pittsburgh sideline.

Miami wins, 22-20.

Buffalo @ Tampa Bay (-3)

The Bills suffered a 34-31 overtime loss to the Falcons in Buffalo's annual game at Toronto's Rogers Centre last week. The Bills are now 4-8 in the AFC East.

"Toronto mayor Rob Ford was in the crowd," Doug Marrone said, "and seemed to be having a good time. After what he's been through, it was good to see him crack a smile. Mayor Ford is all about 'public service,' but personally, I think he should be a little more discreet with his prostitutes."

Tampa wins, 27-13.

Kansas City @ Washington (+4)

The Redskins lost to the Giants 24-17 in a game marred by confusion on down and distance with Washington driving late in the game. On Monday, the NFL said officials should have stopped play and cleared the confusion.

"That's something that has to be corrected," Mike Shanahan said. "Especially in the nation’s capital. Heck, for about six years now, they've been trying to get it 'right' in Washington.

"Last Sunday's loss eliminated us from playoff contention. However, there's still plenty of 'contention,' between RG3 and myself. That doesn't bode well for me. We've eliminated ourselves from the postseason; Daniel Snyder will probably eliminate me from the next season."

The Chiefs lost a 21-7 lead in a 35-28 loss to the Broncos in Kansas City. Denver completed the season sweep, and dropped the Chiefs to 9-3.

"I wouldn't say the Broncos 'mopped the floor' with us," Andy Reid said, "but who needs a mop when a broom will do?"

Alex Smith passes for 2 touchdowns, and the Chiefs' defense stifles Griffin.

Kansas City wins, 27-20.

Minnesota @ Baltimore (-7)

The Ravens overcame the Steelers, and Mike Tomlin, in an exciting and controversial 22-20 win over Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving. Baltimore is now 6-6, only one game behind the division-leading Bengals in the AFC North.

"I guess that's the closest Tomlin's ever come to stepping on the field as a player," John Harbaugh said. "The sad part is, his attempt at a tackle was the best by a Steeler this year.

"I think Tomlin could be forgiven for making contact with Jacoby Jones, but only if it's discovered that a stripper picked him up and threw him at Jacoby."

The Vikings handed the Bears a costly 23-20 overtime loss last week, powered by 211 yards on the ground from Adrian Peterson. Peterson eclipsed 10,000 yards for his career in his 101st game; only Jim Brown and Eric Dickerson did it faster.

"We just broke ground on the Vikings' new stadium," Leslie Frazier said. "They're calling it 'The House That Adrian Built.' They should call it 'A House That Adrian Built,' because he supplies a roof over the heads of a lot of 'family.'"

Peterson's got child support. The Ravens also have something that costs A.P., and that's run support. The Ravens load up the box and challenge the Minnesota quarterback to make a name for himself.

Baltimore wins, 23-12.

Tennessee @ Denver (-13)

The Broncos all but wrapped up the AFC West title, knocking off division rival Kansas City 35-28 in chilly Arrowhead Stadium. Peyton Manning threw for 403 yards and five touchdowns, including four to Eric Decker.

"After stinking it up in the second half in New England two weeks ago," Manning said, "I felt it important to 'air it out.'

"I had an invitation from a couple to attend their wedding, but I politely declined. My heart just wasn't in it. I don't do weddings, but I will make 'receptions.'"

The Titans tumbled to 5-7 after last week's 22-14 loss to the Colts in Indianapolis. The NFL said officials erred three times in the game, with all going against Tennessee.

"That's what's called getting 'officially screwed,'" Mike Munchak said.

Denver wins, 34-16.

St. Louis @ Arizona (-6)

The Cardinals had their four-game winning streak snapped in Philadelphia in a 24-21 loss to the Eagles. Now 7-5, Arizona is third in the NFC West and still very much alive for a playoff spot.

"That was a very physical game," Bruce Arians said. "That makes us 'sore losers.' That may be why we sent a tape to the NFL of what we considered obvious officiating errors from the Philly game. The league sent it back with a note saying the game is 'still one loss,' or 'S.O.L.' for short."

The Rams fell to 5-7 after last week's 23-13 loss in San Francisco.

"I've about heard enough of Seattle's 'Legion of Boom,'" James Laurinaitis said. "Don't forget, my dad was one-half of the Road Warriors, also known as the 'Legion Of Doom.' That's with a 'D,' as opposed to by the 'D,' which I hear is the best way to tackle Vernon Davis."

Arizona wins, 24-20.

NY Giants @ San Diego (-3)

The Giants sacked Robert Griffin III five times and overcame a 14-0 deficit to defeat the home-standing Redskins 24-17 at FedEx Field. Andre Brown led the offense, rushing for two touchdowns. Up next for the G-Men are the Chargers, who, like the Giants, are battling for a playoff spot.

"Back in 2004," Eli Manning said, "I refused to play for the Chargers. That was because my father and I didn't think highly of the franchise. So, whether it's interceptions, or preconceptions, I'm often the league leader."

The Chargers lost to the Bengals 17-10, a loss that was a severe blow to their playoff hopes. Now 5-7, Sunday's contest against the Giants is a must-win for San Diego.

"San Diego should be thanking Eli," Philip Rivers said. "If not for him, I wouldn't be here. Of course, there is some resentment. It's also a Manning's fault that Ryan Leaf became a Charger."

Rivers and the fired up Chargers vanquish the G-Men 31-17.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-2½)

The Seahawks smashed the Saints 34-7 last Monday night, holding Drew Brees to 147 yards passing. Now 11-1, Seattle clinched a playoff spot and moved a step closer to clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"Hey," Pete Carroll said, "we're playing in the city that was home to Barry Bonds. So, if we 'cream' the 49ers, we're in the 'clear' to win the division."

The 49ers knocked off division-rival St. Louis 23-13 last week for their second-straight win. Vernon Davis had 82 yards receiving and a touchdown reception, and accused Rams safety T.J. McDonald of talking him by his groin.

"The playoffs are still weeks away," Davis said, "but that was the first 'clinching' scenario of the season. If McDonald tries to deny it, he's nuts.

"But I think we sent a message to the rest of the league that we're Super Bowl contenders. What did that message say? 'We're a handful.'"

Seattle wins, 20-13.

Carolina @ New Orleans (-4)

Sole possession of the NFC South is on the line when the Saints host the Panthers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Carolina has won eight in a row, including last week's 27-6 win over the Buccaneers.

"We trust our defense to contain the Saints' offense," Cam Newton said. "We just have to execute offensively. The Saints' defense doesn't intimidate me at all. I was one of the most sought-after college players in history, and my father is Cecil Newton. I know what it's like to have a bounty on my head."

The Saints were physically dominated by the Seahawks 34-7 on Monday Night Football.

"The Seahawks lived up to the 'Legion Of Boom' nickname," Brees said. "On the other hand, our defense gave up 34 points and 429 yards. Seattle's offense went anywhere they wanted to. I guess could call our defense the 'Legion Of Room.'"

"But expect us to play more like ourselves against Carolina. We're motivated. If we lose, we'll likely have to play in Seattle again sooner than if we win."

New Orleans wins, 26-23.

Dallas @ Chicago (-1)

Dallas' 31-24 Thanksgiving Day win over the Raiders kept the Cowboys tied atop the NFC East with the Eagles. DeMarco Murray rushed for three touchdowns, and the 'Boys powered through a 21-7 deficit to drop Oakland to 4-8.

"You can't give a team like the Raiders points," Tony Romo said, "because they're never the favorites. But I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I'd take the 'under,' because the under/over is 'perform.'

"We have a history of faltering in December, so it's important we pretend it's another month in which we're playing. January and February are obviously out of the question. I suggest we choose a month from March to July, because we never lose then."

The Bears lost 23-20 in overtime in Minnesota and fell one game behind the Lions in the NFC North. Mark Trestman elected to attempt a field goal on second down, but Robbie Gould's potential game-winning kick sailed wide.

"On second thought," Mark Trestman said, "maybe I should have reconsidered. That's a decision that may come back to haunt me, because I'm 'afraid' it may keep us out of the playoffs."

At the opening coin toss, Romo surprises everyone when he calls "Ditka." It's even more of a surprise that he wins the toss.

Chicago wins, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:09 PM | Comments (0)

They're First Ballot Hall of Famers, End of Discussion

Well, now. A Baseball Writers Association of America member with Hall of Fame voting privileges elected to sell this year's privilege to Deadspin.com. Meaning that said writer's going to fill out his ballot based on the tally from Deadspin respondents.

The theory behind the curious move, of course, is to show up what seems an increasingly absurd vote process in which the 10-name limit hamstrings the voting writers. And, in last year's case, leaves no player elected to the Hall of Fame despite several who deserved to be.

Be afraid. Be very afraid. If the absurdities of the writers' ballot rules are bad enough, even one fan-based vote portends to be worse. SportsNation.com has taken a fan poll that provides evidence enough. According to that poll, Greg Maddux doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Nor do Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas.

Last year's voting writers ought to have been held accountable for last year's absurdity. Never mind the class of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substance users on the ballot who factored in the outcomes to one or another extent. But David Schoenfeld of SweetSpot probably isn't the only observer implying that the SportsNation.com poll voters should require psychiatric attention post haste.

Greg Maddux isn't a first-ballot Hall of Famer? Let's send those people back through time and watch them try to explain why Sandy Koufax wasn't a first ballot Hall of Famer. That comparison isn't as absurd as you might think. Schoenfeld isolates the point admirably:

"During his seven-year peak from 1992 to 1998, he went 127-53 with a 2.15 ERA, while averaging 32 starts, 239 innings, 184 strikeouts, 38 walks and just nine home runs per season. He won four straight Cy Young Awards and had back-to-back seasons in '94 and '95 with ERAs of 1.56 and 1.63, all while pitching in the heart of a high-scoring era. In '94 and '95, the average National League team scored 4.63 runs per game; compare that to 2012-2013, when the average NL team averaged 4.11 runs per game...

"Think about that. You have a guy who had the peak of a Sandy Koufax, plus 12 more seasons where he was better than league average (and sometimes much better). You could actually extend his peak from 1992 to 2002, when he went 198-88 with a 2.47 ERA. His ERA+ — ERA adjusted for the run-scoring environment pitched in — over those 11 seasons was 171, a figure Koufax topped in just two individual seasons."

Actually, Maddux averaged 154 strikeouts per 162 innings, but let's not get technical. Perhaps there lies one key to why some fans seemingly don't think of him at once as a pitcher who was that great: he wasn't a pure power pitcher. His fastball topped in the low 90s and often didn't cross the threshold of 90. He pitched with an additional organ: his brain. He was the quintessential thinking person's pitcher in the quintessential thinking person's sport. Oh, the horror.

"Maddux was always a bit coy about what made him so good," Schoenfeld writes. "It was like he had discovered this great mystery, but needed to keep it to himself. Teammates often talked about his encyclopedic knowledge of opponents or his ability to read into a batter's body language, but Maddux always played this down. I remember interviewing him once and asking something along those lines and he simply joked, 'Well, if I told you I'd have to kill you.' He then took a baseball and showed how he would change his grip or finger pressure for different pitches, but he had such a big smirk on his face that to this day I think he was simply screwing with me."

Maybe. Maybe not. All I can tell you from having watched the man pitch is that Maddux usually thought about four hitters ahead of the one he faced and tended to think about three pitches ahead of the guy at the plate in the moment while he was at it. They used to talk about pitchers who could throw lamb chops past wolves. Maddux made the wolf think the lamb chop was a chef's salad.

Perhaps the fans in the SportsNation.com absurdity simply held the Braves' lack of World Series rings against him? The Braves won one World Series for all those division titles and trips to the National League Championship Series (seven) and World Series appearances (five) they had during Maddux's (and Glavine's) tenures with the team. They also forged an image for professionalism that often crossed the line to colorlessness, or so it seemed both in the time and in hindsight.

Don't blame Maddux for their lack of Series success. Lifetime in the World Series he went only 2-3, but with an ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) of 0.91. That's about as close to Koufax (0.95; 0.83) as you can get, allowing that you had to go through a couple of prior postseason sets to get there in the first place and throwing to inflated offenses while you were at it.

Want to know what Maddux's wins-above-replacement-level pitcher are? How does 104.6 strike you? He's 25th on the all-time list overall and seventh on the all-time list among pitchers. On the Bill James Hall of Fame metric, Maddux meets 70 of the Hall of Fame pitching standards where the average Hall of Fame pitcher would meet 50. On the Hall of Fame pitching monitor? The average Hall of Fame pitcher would pull up with a 100. Maddux pulls up with a 254.

And to think I managed to discuss all the foregoing before mentioning, for those who like this sort of thing, that he has 355 wins and a .610 lifetime winning percentage. Not to mention that in his time and in his prime they didn't talk about Maddux as the greatest pitcher of his time. There were plenty talking about Maddux being maybe the greatest right-handed pitcher ever. And not just based on one big season, either.

While I looked at Maddux again, I looked at his longtime running mate, too. Those who snort that Maddux had only a pair of 20+ win seasons might be impressed that Tom Glavine had five of them and won a pair of Cy Young Awards in the bargain. He might have bagged another Cy or two if he didn't have Maddux as a rotation mate all those years.

Glavine (74 lifetime WAR; 305 wins, .600 lifetime winning percentage) likewise pitched with brains over brawn. The only time Maddux's fastball ever looked Koufaxian was compared to Glavine's. But he, too, thought three pitches and about four hitters ahead of the guy at the plate; he, too, mixed speeds and changed his location more often than you changed your underwear. Glavine was a little more hittable than Maddux (batters hit .257 lifetime against Glavine and .250 against Maddux), but a lifetime 3.54 ERA in an era in which the average National League team was scoring slivers shy of 5 runs a game is nothing to dismiss.

You might have heard that Glavine was pretty damn good in the postseason, too. In a sense, he tended to warm his way up to the World Series: his lifetime division series ERA is 4.61 but his lifetime NLCS ERA is 3.22. And in the Series? 2.16 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Look familiar? Oh, yes. That was Maddux, damn near. No, I'm not saying Tom Glavine was Greg Maddux's equal. But I am saying that these were two pitches off whom you might get a hit or two but whom you'd still need some extremely serious calculus to beat.

Okay, then, how about looking at how Maddux pitched based on his run support? Isn't that one of the big arguments against, say, Jack Morris — you know, pitching to the score, winning by way of his run support, and all that? Well, let's have a look. Maddux won most of his games when he had between six or more runs to work with: 173. You get six runs to work with you'd better win. With between 3 and 6 runs to work with, Maddux won 145 games. With 2 or less runs to work with, he won 42 and lost 141.

But look a little closer. With six or more runs to work with, Maddux had a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.28 ERA. With between 3 and 6 runs to work with, he had a 1.16 WHIP and a 3.16 ERA. But with two or fewer runs to work with? You tell me who lost all those games for him, because it wasn't him: his WHIP with two or fewer runs to work with was 1.12 and his ERA was 3.01.

Glavine isn't that far off in those situations. With 6 or more runs to work with his ERA was 4.00 and his WHIP was 1.39. With between 3 and 6 runs to work with, they were 3.35/1.29. With 2 or fewer runs to work with, they were 3.26/1.26. Remember: they pitched in a high-scoring era, and the actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances weren't the only reason for the high scorings, either.*

One suspicion I have is that Glavine's image was compromised horribly by what happened at the end of the 2006 season, when Glavine pitched for the Mets. Thanks to their spectacular late-stretch collapse, the Mets went into the final regular season game needing to win to either snatch the NL East back or tie with the Phillies for a win-or-be-gone game. Glavine was battered for 5 runs, the fifth of which scored when he uncharacteristically plunked Florida starter Dontrelle Willis with the bases loaded; reliever Jorge Sosa surrendered two more of Glavine's baserunners.

It finished the Mets' historic collapse: no major league team had ever before blown a 7-games-plus lead with 17 left on the regular season schedule and finished out of first place. But do you really want to hold one horrible outing in the twilight of his career, in a situation not of his own making, against Glavine? That's your problem.

I concede that this year's election is going to be tough no matter how the shenanigans factor plays in. Last year, Craig Biggio was denied his plaque and he should have been a no-questions-asked first-ballot Hall of Famer. So should have been Curt Schilling, the very essence of a big-game pitcher. Jeff Bagwell was denied his on his third try, and he should have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. (Those about to hoist the PED suspicion argument, kindly sit down and shut up. Innuendo isn't evidence. Never was, never will be. Which is why it was also a crime that Mike Piazza didn't get in on his first try last year.) Well, Cy Young, Joe DiMaggio, Lefty Grove, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Juan Marichal, and Gary Carter didn't make it on their first ballots, either.

And that should be irrelevant to this discussion. Of all the dubious precedents on which people lean to make Hall of Fame cases for or against someone, the one that says look at how many of the absolute greats didn't make it first try is perhaps the most fatuous of all. Past wrongs don't make a current right.

Greg Maddux is a no-questions-asked Hall of Famer and he should go in on his first ballot. So should Tom Glavine, when all is said and done. The very concept that pitchers who didn't throw baseballs past hitters, catchers, and umpires through the backstops shouldn't be first-ballot Hall of Famers is ridiculous.

So they weren't the most colorful pitchers who ever stepped on a mound. They didn't pitch for the most colorful teams who ever hit the field. All they did was get the job done and then some. It wasn't their fault their teams didn't have more than one World Series ring to show for all those postseason trips.

Schoenfeld thinks the BBWAA will elect Maddux with well over 90 percent of the vote. "Unfortunately," he adds, "I'm guessing a few curmudgeons will refuse to vote for him out of some strange first-ballot principle or something and thus prevent him from becoming the first unanimous choice." I'm guessing Glavine's outcome will feature the same curmudgeon factor, as well. Those curmudgeons should be made to answer for those denials.

If Maddux and Glavine don't become first-ballot Hall of Famers (and you can throw Frank Thomas into this mix, too), forget who's going to have some splainin' to do — there ought to be an investigation. Maybe a complete revamp of who should be eligible to vote for the Hall of Fame, too.

Just don't include the fans. Do you really want to trust Hall of Fame voting to people who've been known to stuff all-star ballot boxes or turn All-Star voting into lifetime achievement awards?

* * *

*Would you like to know Jack Morris's run support results? With six or more runs to work with, his ERA was 4.24 and his WHIP was 1.31. With between 3 and 6 runs to work with, they were 3.54/1.26. That's pretty even with Glavine but not quite close to Maddux. But with 2 or less runs to work with? 3.98/1.33. That's way off both Glavine and Maddux.

Morris also won 40 more games with 6 or more runs to work with than with between 3 and 6. The differential for Maddux between the two supports: +28. And Morris pitched in a slightly lower-scoring era than Maddux and Glavine pitched. Will Morris make it this time, on his final writers' ballot appearance? Who knows. But he won't be the worst pitcher ever elected if he does make it at last.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:27 PM | Comments (0)

December 4, 2013

A Homecoming Gone Wrong

The wall in pro football can be more formidable than any other in sports. Just ask Rex Ryan, the Kansas City Chiefs, or referee Jeff Triplette. Nor do they affect only coaches, players, and officials. NFL fans have a wall of their own, too.

I usually hit mine the week after Thanksgiving when Christmas shopping usurps my weekends and the college regular season ends. The NFL used to spread into Saturdays, and even though they stopped doing that in 2006, there is still an oversaturation of December football. Half the teams are mailing it in and we're forced to watch real contenders beat up on them before they finally get to play one another in January.

This year, however, my wall has come a week earlier than normal.

From Thanksgiving Day when the Packers got rolled for 37 straight points before the turkey was even carved, to last night's supposed NFC Championship preview that was over before the first quarter, Week 13 was the anti-climactic bookends to a college rivalry week for the ages. All the compelling games were played on Friday and Saturday, and they whipped fans into a January fever pitch that many of us were loath to abandon on Sunday.

That's not to say the NFL was without its moments of majesty. There was Peyton Manning throwing for five touchdown passes, and Justin Tuck sacking Robert Griffin four times. Josh Gordon became the first player in NFL history to log consecutive 200-yard receiving games. We even had a fair share of flying helmets and wandering coaches and phantom first downs that would normally spark enough controversy to make us forget the college games of the day before. Not in Week 13.

Maybe it's the tryptophan talking, but Jacksonville at Cleveland just couldn't inspire the same passion in me as did Ohio State at Michigan, and the two NFL games ending with field goals did not come close to matching the one Auburn/Alabama game that ended after a missed attempt.

We've entered the eye of the NFL storm that inevitably forms once the postseason pecking order has taken shape. The problem is, it came early this year. Contenders have already seized most playoff spots, and there remains only an assortment of 5-7 franchises scattered about looking for the last wild card slot or lower: the NFC East division title.

Calm set in too quickly, and we needed a little of that college spirit to shake things up. To be ahead of the entertainment curve this December, NFL franchises will have to think outside the box. And that just may be what the Houston Texans front office and those wonderful folks down at Reliant Stadium are doing.

The Texans' marketing department has gone big to create that smalltime collegiate football vibe that is filling the otherwise cavernous Reliant Stadium during most home games. For that real Division 1-AA ambiance, this place has it all: $10 parking, tee shirt canons, and third down reminders from the public address announcer intended to ignite a “de-fense” chant from the crowd. Watching Sunday's game, I half-expected to hear license plate numbers of illegally-parked cars announced over the loudspeakers as the CBS audience waited for Dan Deirdorf to think up more witticisms.

Texas is the one place where you'd think football could survive on its own merits, but apparently Houstonites need to be lured in with game themes and live halftime shows. Back in July, that same PR machine that rolled out letterman jackets for Texan players last year just before they were drubbed in New England decided on a Homecoming theme for Sunday's Patriots rematch.

In hindsight, Houston's forward-thinking attempt to go toe-to-toe with college football on their own turf has made Tones-tradamuses of the entire Texans front office, given the unparalleled drama surrounding this year's NCAAF rivalry week. Then again, I can't think of a better way to motivate the strongest opponent on your schedule, not to mention the team that handed you your two most painful losses the year before, than to designate them as your sacrificial victims.

But who knows? Save for the covert surveillance efforts Bill Belichick orchestrated from 2,000 miles away that broke the code of Wade Phillips' double-secret defensive scheme, it might have worked. In the end, the Texans let a ten-point halftime lead slip into a heartbreaking defeat by a 53-yard field goal margin, leaving mums wilting and Homecoming queens reeling over what almost was.

We all know the NFL is a copycat league, and everyone could use a shot of collegiate enthusiasm right about now. If the Texans don't figure out how to put that top-ranked defense to work in holding opponents under 34 points when it counts, and maybe get Vanilla Ice back in the house for these big games, they're going to find themselves the Homecoming date on eight teams' schedules come next year.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 6:50 PM | Comments (0)

The Right Fit in Player-Coach Duos

Last week, Richard Gasquet revealed that he had come to an agreement with Sergu Bruguera, the two-time French Open Champion (1993-94), and that the Spaniard will begin his duties in February of 2014. This is on the heels of a bizarre development during the ATP Tour Finals in London, when Ricardo Piatti abruptly walked away from coaching Gasquet after his second loss in the round-robin matches. Gasquet admitted to being in shock as much as anyone else, especially considering that he was closing the curtain on his career's most successful season that culminated in qualifying for the year-ending even in London, reserved for the top eight players of the year.

By the way, Gasquet also employs Sébastien Grosjean as a coach with whom Piatti was splitting his duty. Thus, Bruguera will become co-coach with Grosjean, probably spending more time with the player over the year. Why? Because Grosjean is also the Davis Cup Captain for France, and he can't quite be a full-time coach for a single player. In fact, he is the one who recommended Bruguera to Gasquet, meaning a coach suggested to his employer which co-coach to hire. Are you, the reader, keeping up with this? Because, you better get used to it. Coaching changes are coming at increased frequency, co-coaching has been the new trend for a few years, and some coaching changes are done quicker the replacement of a light bulb.

If you have not heard, in 2013, Maria Sharapova let Thomas Högstedt go after the second-round loss at Wimbledon, despite having a successful season until that loss, and having the best results of her career since Högstedt began coaching her in 2010. She hired and fired Jimmy Connors in less than a week, after one loss to Sloan Stephens in Cincinnati, in one of the quickest turnarounds in coaching changes history, with Connors getting the news one day after announcing that the loss to Stephens was a bump on the road and he was looking forward to working with her. Sharapova has since hired Sven Groenefeld, and Högstedt has moved on to coaching Caroline Wozniacki.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, split from his coach Roger Rasheed in August because of, get this: "language barriers and geographical issues." Um, how did they manage to collaborate for ten months with those kinds of complications? Why not simply announce "for reasons undisclosed," "or private reasons" than produce such a tall tale? In any case, Rasheed moved on to Grigor Dmitrov since, and Tsonga recently hired Thierry Ascione and Nicolas Escude — yes you guessed it: co-coaches. They also coach another Frenchman, Nicolas Mahut, joining a rare category: co-coaches simultaneously coaching their co-employers.

In the meantime, Simona Halep just split with her Coach Adrian Marcu following the most successful season of her career; Samantha Stosur hired the ex-Murray coach Miles McLagan after splitting with long-time coach David Taylor. I could go on and on, and I have not even mentioned Jelena Jankovic who certainly must hold the record for most coaching changes since her career rose to prominence.

The increasing frequency of coaching changes, the reduction in the durations of collaborations, the ever-expanding "co-coaching" concept, and the results that some players have had without a coach begs the question, how much is the coach's role in the player's success? Moreover, who is helping whose career? Did Nick Bollettieri help Andre Agassi's career more than Agassi ultimately helped Bollettieri, and his floundering academy, come back to limelight? Similarly, did Brad Gilbert help Agassi's career or did Agassi actually make Gilbert's career? In a more obvious and contemporary case, is Patrick Mouratoglu helping Serena's career more than Serena is helping his?

There are no black-and-white answers to the preceding questions, but in any case, I would maintain that thinking that a coach is absolutely can lead to more disastrous consequences than choosing to be without one. Hiring a coach that does not fit the frame of what the player needs is more likely to happen if hiring a coach is seens as the only and absolute road to success. Roger Federer had arguably the best season of his career in 2004, and spent most of 2007 and 2008 without one.

It is true that Severin Lüthi has supported him, but only since 2007 in any significant amount, and anybody who is familiar with that partnership will tell you that Lüthi's function approaches being the "solid foundation" of his team more than acting uniquely as a tennis coach. Tsonga spent over a year coach-less, resulting in possibly the best 12-month period of his career in terms of results. Did Serena really have a successful year because of Mouratoglu or was it another routine year for Serena who has had 13 Slam titles and "Serena Slam" far before she hired him? For now, I am more inclined to agree with the latter.

Gone are the days of long-term successful coach-player relationships, such as Bjorn Borg and Lennart Bergelin, Boris Becker and Ion Tiriac, Stefan Edberg and Tony Pickard, Steffi Graf and Pavel Slozil, and Pete Sampras and Tim Gullikson, each lasting more than five years, at least. Currently, the only high-profile players who would fit that type of description are Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Lo and behold, they are the top two players in the world; and Serena Williams, the current number one women's player in the world, got there years ago in the first place coached by the same person with whom she began playing tennis as a child.

Thus, the question is not "does the coach serve a purpose?" The answer is obviously, yes! However, my answer to the conventional belief that a player is always better off with a coach than without one would be "not necessarily." Not necessarily, because finding the right fit comprises of a tedious process that requires more than a trial-week at the local courts with a prospect coach; not necessarily, because if the right fit is not found, the time spent together can not only turn to waste, but it can regress the player's development; not necessarily, because a player who feels rushed to get a coach will hire one after another for short periods of time until finding the right fit, and will face continuous adaptation periods, confusion, and interrupted developments in technique.

On the one hand, I agree that any player will thrive with the right coach who aims for long-term success and knows the player's "soul," because coaching is not just telling the player to "follow-through" or "move the feet." On the other hand, a player without a coach, and spending that period of time to reflect on his/her game while taking the time to do a sensible search for a new coach, has a better chance of success than a player who hires a coach simply due to the belief that having a coach trumps not having one.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 10:53 AM | Comments (0)

December 3, 2013

NFL Week 13 Report

Five Quick Hits

* I assume you've all seen the incredible end of the Alabama/Auburn game from Saturday, but if you haven't yet heard Rod Bramblett's call of the play for Auburn radio, you haven't truly lived.

* Terry Bradshaw claimed on the FOX pregame show that it is impossible to lick your own elbow. Naturally, I decided to test this. It is not true.

* From 1969-2010, no one had multiple 200-yard receiving games in the same season. In the last 2½ seasons, Calvin Johnson has done so twice, and this week he was joined by both Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery.

* At 3-9, Washington is in the running for the number one pick in next April's draft. Except that the Rams own that pick because of the RG3 trade. Oops.

* On a recent podcast, Joe Posnanski and Michael Schur drafted sports nicknames. It was a lot of fun, and you should check it out, but they only picked five each, so some great choices got left out. You'll find five more from me at the end of this column.

Thursday Games

* Detroit's blowout win over the Packers broke two nasty streaks: the Lions' 9-year losing skid on Thanksgiving, and Matthew Stafford's 0-6 career record vs. Green Bay. The final stats are just brutal:

Score: 40-10
First downs: 30-7
Offensive yardage: 561-126
Time of possession: 40:26 - 19:34

Matt Flynn completed 10 passes and got sacked 7 times.

* Down 21-7, on national television, in a home game they were favored to win by double-digits, the Cowboys came back to win 31-24. At what point do we admit that Tony Romo sometimes plays really well under pressure?

* Before the Thursday night game, NBC informed viewers that Ben Roethlisberger was 2-2 at Baltimore. This is Big Ben's 10th season in the NFL. Does it stun anyone else that he's only played in Baltimore five times? Man, he's missed a lot of games.

* Obviously, Mike Tomlin standing too near the field on a kick return is the greatest travesty in NFL history. It was the worst thing to happen in America since 9/11. Or that's what you'd think from the sanctions being discussed. Six-digit fines for both the coach and the team? Suspensions? Lost draft picks?

Three years ago, Jets assistant Sal Alosi deliberately stuck out his knee during a return, injuring Miami gunner Nolan Carroll. Alosi was fined $25,000 by the team and suspended without pay for three games and the playoffs. He resigned at the end of the season, and the Jets were fined $100,000 for the incident. Alosi deliberately attacked a player who wasn't looking. Tomlin stood too close to the field and should have moved out of the way a second or two earlier. I just don't see those as comparable. But hey, at least Alosi didn't smirk afterwards; that might have cost the Jets a draft pick. Also, it was smart of him to wait until a couple weeks after Thanksgiving. Just ask Ndamukong Suh.

If the league wants to issue a gigantic fine, Tomlin and the Steelers can both afford it, and if they want to suspend Tomlin for a game, I suppose that's not the end of the world at this point. But docking draft picks takes "overreaction" to a whole new level. Earlier this season, an official actually ran into Washington's special teams coordinator during a play, and all that drew was a 15-yard penalty. The NFL's system of punishment is totally cosmetic and totally unswayed by fairness. This was a head coach on a national stage, and the penalty is bigger because of how many people saw it, not because of the seriousness of the offense. The Commissioner's office just has no credibility on these issues.

Sunday, Early Games

* The uncomfortable fact: the Houston Texans were 2-4 with Matt Schaub as starting quarterback, including relatively clutch comebacks in the two wins, and they're 0-6 without him. Schaub made the Pro Bowl last year. He didn't turn from an above-average starter into Helpless Blaine Gabbert overnight, it's just that Texans fans have decided they hate Schaub more than they like winning.

* Margin of defeat in Houston's 10 losses: 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 7, 21, 25, 31. The Texans are seven plays from being 9-3 instead of 2-10.

* Most losses by 3 or less this season: Texans (5), Buccaneers (4), Ravens (4).

* Most losses by 7 or less this season: Texans (7), Chargers (5), Falcons (5), Ravens (5), Titans (5).

* Halfway through the season, it looked like the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars might be the worst team in NFL history. They were 0-8, with all of their losses by double-digits. Since then, they're 3-1. For whatever it's worth, all three wins were on the road. The next three are all in Jacksonville.

* Vegas isn't buying it. The 3-9 Jags are underdogs in Week 14, at home against the 2-10 Texans, whom they beat in Houston two weeks ago.

* Since 2008, the Bills are 19-22 in Buffalo (.463). Over those same years, they are 1-5 in Toronto (.167). The domed Rogers Centre probably favored the Falcons (who play in a dome anyway) more than the Bills, and both teams had to travel.

* The Vikings came two minutes from back-to-back ties. The last time a team had two draws in the same season was 1973 (Browns, Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers). Overtime was not used in regular season games until 1974.

* The Bears lost partly because Robbie Gould missed a 47-yard field goal in overtime. On second down. Gould's a good kicker, but 47 is not a chip shot. Kicking the field goal on 2nd down is ridiculous. Marc Trestman, you owe the fans an apology.

* Since beating the Saints in Week 9, the Jets are 0-3, losing by a combined 79-20 against teams who are all .500 or below. On Sunday, the Jets were out-gained by 276 yards. Six of their 12 drives went three-and-out, and four of the remaining six were turnovers. In the whole game, the Jets had one drive which produced more than one first down and did not end in a turnover.

Sunday, Late Games

* The Chiefs' defense isn't 100% right now, but Denver had five 70-yard TD drives on Sunday, including the two longest drives Kansas City has allowed all season. Six of Denver's 11 opponents have allowed more points against the Broncos than anyone else they've played this season, seven if you count a tie vs. the Patriots.

* The Broncos have scored 464 points this season. The Seahawks rank second, with 340 points. The difference between Denver and second place is the difference between 2nd and 30th (Tampa Bay, 217). The Broncos lead the league in points per game by double-digits.

* Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were ecstatic over Robert Griffin III's 16-of-17 first half performance against the Giants. Here's the problem: in that sensational first half, Washington only scored on two of its six possessions. Completion percentage is overrated, and single-game completion percentage is ridiculous.

What good is completing a 2-yard pass on 3rd-and-8? Completions are good if they lead to first downs and points, but dinky completions that don't move the chains are as useless as 20-yard scrambles on the last play of the half. They just pad the stats, but they don't measure skill and they don't help the team.

* If last year's replacement refs had done what Jeff Triplette did on Sunday night — "Psych, it's fourth down" — there would have been riots. Triplette has long been reviled as the most incompetent referee in the league, and on Sunday night he violated one of the league's most fundamental policies. You can't go directly from 1st down to 4th down. Quoting Collinsworth: "Once the next play is run, if a mistake was made you live with it."

I don't think Washington was going to win anyway, but Triplette displayed a fundamental misunderstanding of fairness and of league policy. It's the biggest mistake in a career that has revolved around serious mistakes.

Monday Night Football

* I don't know if at halftime, Sean Payton told his players to cool it, or if they just realized they were getting blown out on national television, but I can't believe what punks the Saints were being while they were getting rolled over by Seattle in the first half. They're down by double-digits and they're getting in somebody's face after every play. Man, you're getting your ass handed to you in front of a national audience. This is not the right time to draw attention to yourself.

* Mike Tirico suggested that New Orleans needs to prove it can win on the road, and Jon Gruden responded, "Their won-loss record on the road speaks for itself. They've been a good road team." The Saints are 3-3 on the road, and they've been outscored 136-112. They haven't been a good road team.

* Right now, I'd put the Seahawks' Super Bowl odds at about 45%. They'll almost certainly get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and they're unbeatable at home, so let's say 90% to win the NFC, and 50-50 against whoever wins the AFC.

* With a two-game lead in the NFC and a tiebreaker over the Saints, there's no need to rush Percy Harvin back before he's healthy. Of course, health is always temporary for Harvin.

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Top 6

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. Carolina Panthers
4. New Orleans Saints
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. New England Patriots

Normally, I list the top 10, but no one deserves to be seventh right now. The Kansas City Chiefs have lost three in a row. The Cincinnati Bengals are 2-2 since losing Geno Atkins and Leon Hall. The Indianapolis Colts have been outscored by an average of 11 points per game since losing Reggie Wayne, and all their wins require miracles. The Detroit Lions have lost two of their last three, both to opponents with losing records. The Cardinals just lost to the Eagles, the Eagles have no defense, the Cowboys got humiliated by New Orleans, and the Ravens can't win on the road. That leaves Miami, and I can't in good faith rank the Dolphins 7th.

Worst Team?

Jacksonville's 3-1 run moves it out of the basement, for the first time all season. So who's the worst team right now? Let me suggest a trio of 2012 playoff teams...

1. The Green Bay Packers are 0-4-1 without Aaron Rodgers. We all knew they'd miss him, but not like this. They got embarrassed on Thanksgiving.

2. Washington is absolutely awful. The defense can't stop anyone, the special teams are "special," and the offense has no identity. Robert Griffin III makes too many mistakes, the play-calling doesn't make any sense, the receivers can't catch, and just when you think they've got something going, they slump.

3. Houston has lost 10 games in a row.

Washington won the NFC East last year, and nearly beat Seattle in the playoffs. Green Bay and Houston won playoff games. Now, one of those three is probably the worst team in the league at this moment. I would also entertain arguments for the Jets. Since beating the Saints a month ago, they've given up four times as many points as they've scored (79-20).

Sports Nicknames

In the triumphant return of the Poscast, Joe Posnanski and Michael Schur (of FJM) drafted sports nicknames. It was a lot of fun, and you should check it out, but they only picked five each.

Joe Posnanski: Magic Johnson, Cool Papa Bell, Mean Joe Greene, No-Neck Williams, Crazy Legs Hirsch

Michael Schur: Sweetness, The Great One, Chocolate Thunder, The Refrigerator, The Round Mound of Rebound

I loved this exercise, and the interplay between Posnanski and Schur is terrific, especially when Poz admits how upset he is that Schur beat him to Chocolate Thunder. But with only 10 selections, some great choices got left out. Here are five additions of my own.

1. When I found out the Poscast would feature a Nicknames Draft, the first one that occurred to me was Crazy Legs Hirsch, so I was glad that made Posnanski's list. But the second was Catfish Hunter. You can tell it is a great nickname because almost no one knows that Hunter's real name is James. You have a somewhat recent Hall of Fame pitcher, and his nickname is so good that no one knows the guy's real first name. Many fans know it's really Earvin "Magic" Johnson, or Elroy "Crazy Legs" Hirsch, but only serious baseball trivia enthusiasts know who Jim Hunter is.

2. Let's stick with the aquatic theme, moving on from Catfish to The Shark, for golfer Greg Norman. In my eternal debate about whether or not golf is really a sport, a competitor nicknamed The Shark might sway me to vote yes. It's not just a fearsome animal, it's specific: sharks are aggressive predators who are most dangerous when they sense blood in the water. The nickname is menacing in the best possible way.

3. In The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, James writes, "The best nickname, for my money, belonged to Sam McDowell: Sudden Sam. The nickname was original, alliterative, worked in print or on the air, and described both the abilities and the career of the player, whose fame and fastball both arrived suddenly." But I think absolutely the best nickname that Posnanski and Schur missed — and it's not really close — was Dizzy Dean. Again, hardly anyone knows his real name (listed as either Jay or Jerome, depending on where you look), and what better title could you have for such an eccentric player?

4. I'm an NFL guy, and this is an NFL column, so let's get back to the gridiron for a really sensational football nickname, by far the best ever given to a quarterback: The Mad Bomber. Even if you never saw Daryle Lamonica play, the nickname immediately paints a vivid picture. And it's not just The Bomber, it's The Mad Bomber. It's colorful and evocative, and it's the perfect AFL nickname.

5. For my final choice, I wanted to go with someone recent. The podcast hosts mentioned Megatron for Calvin Johnson, and that's a great one. I've always thought Cadillac Williams was a pretty sensational nickname. Johnny Football isn't super creative, but it's striking and unforgettable. Ultimately, though, I felt like I needed to go older and address derogatory nicknames. The best of these, I believe, is Dr. Strangeglove, for Dick Stuart, one of the most atrocious fielders in baseball history.

The best NFL nicknames are plays (The Music City Miracle, The Immaculate Reception), games (The Ice Bowl, The Sneakers Game), and groups of players (The Hogs, The Fearsome Foursome, The Steel Curtain). But for individuals, the cupboard's a little sparse. There are some famous ones, sure, but most of them aren't real creative. Up until about 1950, every athlete with red hair was nicknamed Red. There are two Hall of Fame quarterbacks nicknamed Dutch. Billy "White Shoes" Johnson is a classic nickname, but it's not what I'm looking for. Broadway Joe was fitting, but Joe Namath was so much bigger than that nickname.

If I was just drafting NFL nicknames, and I couldn't use any of Posnanski and Schur's, I'd take:

1. The Mad Bomber

2. The Human Joystick. One of the most perfect nicknames in the history of football. For two or three years, Dante Hall was a video game superhero on kickoff and punt returns. His cutting ability seemed to defy the most basic physical laws that govern our universe.

3. Law Firm. In the spreadsheet from my fantasy draft, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is listed as L.Firm.

4. Chuck Bednarik was called Concrete Charlie because he had family in the concrete business, but it also communicated the rugged toughness of a player with two of the most famous tackles in league history.

5. Running backs generally get the best nicknames, especially the big power guys (The Diesel, The Bus, two guys named Bam, etc.), but my favorite is a shifty scatback: Mercury Morris. Actually, my favorite is He Hate Me. That's more of an XFL nickname, but it's how we'll always remember Rod Smart. And, for that matter, the XFL.

* * *

In last week's column, I looked at the most deserving players on this year's Pro Bowl ballot.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:24 PM | Comments (0)

December 2, 2013

BCS Hopes Dashed, Saved on Two Plays

Sometimes the decisions people make in life can have dire consequences. A poor financial decision can land one in bankruptcy court. A poor marital decision can land one in divorce court. You get the point.

The final week of the college football regular season saw decisions by two coaches that extended the national title hopes of one team and dashed the hopes of another. Both decisions were gutsy, perhaps even a little insane, but neither was successful. Additionally, both decisions will be highly second-guessed, much maligned and extensively scrutinized maybe for years to come.

I'm talking about the decisions by Michigan's Brady Hoke to go for two rather than kick for the tie after scoring late in the game against arch-rival Ohio State, and Alabama's Nick Saban to try a long field goal rather than run out the clock and go to overtime against arch-rival Auburn. In Michigan's case, it allowed the hated Buckeyes to remain unbeaten and potentially play for a BCS championship. In Alabama's case, it allowed the despised Tigers to score the winning touchdown and knock the Crimson Tide out of the hunt for a third consecutive national title.

I understand throwing caution to the wind and going for all the marbles in similar situations, but sometimes making that decision depends a lot on the flow of the game and the nature of the opponent. A coach has to take into account the second half, fourth quarter and final minutes of that quarter to get a feel for what his team can do on both sides of the ball — all three, actually. He needs to assess how effective is the offense, how tired is the defense, and if his kickers are accurate with distance. He also needs to take into account the environment of the game — e.g. weather and field conditions, momentum, crowd involvement — and what is at stake with either a win or loss.

Looking at the Michigan situation, I can understand Hoke wanting to go for two down by one with 32 seconds left for a number of reasons. His offense had outscored OSU 20-7 in the fourth quarter, getting into the end zone on its only three possessions in the frame, and his defense had forced a turnover that helped the Wolverines score and make it a 35-35 game. Plus, his players apparently voted unanimously to go for the win rather than take the game to overtime.

However, this might have been a situation where Hoke might have wanted to exercise a veto over his players' wishes. The same reasons mentioned above for going for two make perfect sense for kicking the point after and going to overtime. The offense was rolling and the defense was playing pretty well also, so why not trade jabs from the 25 for a while and hope the last session reflected the fourth quarter?

Another reason, and maybe even a more important one, for tying the game and going to OT is simply the opportunity to break Ohio State's winning streak and knock them out of the BCS championship race. I get that the same reason is a good one for going for two and trying to win it outright, but it's a risky "do or die" situation that, if unsuccessful (as it was), will keep Wolverine fans wondering for years what might have been.

Okay, so maybe going for two was the right call in this situation. The players wanted it, momentum was on Michigan's side — and why not try to win it in regulation? But if coaches believe that making a gutsy call like that is the right one to make, then they need to call a play that puts their team in the best position to be successful. In my opinion, running a play from a formation that spreads out the secondary and moves the pocket would have given Michigan a better chance to convert than using the stacked receiver formation and a drop-back pass play. The receivers didn't have much time to find an open area or fight off the defenders, and two routes ended up being in the same area, which bunched the secondary defenders and gave Devin Gardner little room to pass. Even running a fake PAT might have been a better choice than the play that was selected.

Moving on to Alabama, Saban tossed aside his usual penchant for going with the high-percentage play and trotted out a freshman kicker to boot a 57-yard game winner that went all wrong. I get that Saban had no confidence in regular kicker Cade Foster, who had missed three field goals in the game, but it didn't seem likely that a first-year player who had made only one kick — and that from 20 yards — would put the Tide in the SEC title game.

So, rather than taking a shot at the end zone on a Hail Mary play — a play much more likely to yield points for Alabama with the personnel they have — or simply kneeling down and taking the game to overtime, Saban put the fate of his team's national title hopes on the largely untested leg of an 18-year-old kid. It was a pretty uncharacteristic move from a coach who is fairly predictable when it comes to personnel.

While Hoke's decision was semi-plausible, Saban's was not. Hoke had nothing to lose — no conference division title, no winning streak, and no possible national championship — so laying all the cards on the table for a win on one play was a gamble he could afford to take. Saban had everything to lose, and to risk it all against Alabama's most hated rival in the most critical of situations was a huge risk.

If Saban's decision was made next year, it might not have the same implications that it does this year. With the BCS going by the wayside and a limited playoff system being implemented, Alabama would possibly still have a legitimate shot at a title if other teams above them lost. I don't doubt that they would be considered for a playoff spot and could easily win two games to win it all. But this isn't the playoff era quite yet and how the game against Auburn ended will have a lasting impact in the minds of 'Bama faithful.

Of course, the decisions by both Hoke and Saban are left to debate as to whether they were good or bad, and my view is but one that believes they were poor. If certain things happen next weekend in the conference championships, the BCS committee might have a decision to make regarding which one-loss teams are worthy of playing for the national championship. Maybe Saban's decision will be moot, and as might Hoke's, but as it stands right now, both seem to be questionable at best.

Posted by Adam Russell at 12:18 PM | Comments (0)