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November 29, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 13 (Pt. 2)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-7)

The Jaguars stunned the Texans 13-6 in Houston last week, winning for the second time this season. Now 2-9, Jacksonville will look for win No. 3 against the struggling Browns.

"We sucked all the life out of the Texans and the Reliant Stadium crowd," Maurice Jones-Drew said. "There wasn't much, so, unlike the Texans, we didn't do a lot of sucking.

"I think it's safe to say we've turned our season around. Gus Bradley has us headed in the right direction. I don't want to say we're a year away, but I can see us being competitive further down the road. You could say our futures so bright, we have to wear binoculars."

The Browns lost Jason Campbell to a head injury in the third quarter of their 27-11 loss to the Steelers last week. Brandon Weeden entered the game to boos from his home crowd; he'll start against the Jaguars.

"Honestly," Weeden said, "the boos don't bother me. I've learned that you have to have a thick skin to play quarterback in Cleveland. And I've got one. Unfortunately, I also have a thick head."

The Browns rally behind Weeden and manhandle the Jaguars, 27-10.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-4)

The Colts were hammered by the Cardinals 40-11 in Arizona, and Indy appears to be a team in trouble after giving up 105 points in their last three games. At 7-4, Indy's lead in the AFC South is just two games over the Titans.

"If you can't run the ball," Chuck Pagano said, "you can't win consistently in this league. Maybe it was a reach to trade for Trent Richardson. Don't get me wrong — he's a solid three-down back. How, you ask? Well, after two rushes by Trent, it's third down.

"Our outspoken owner Jim Irsay demanded that the team 'wake up' on his Twitter account. He's right. As the saying goes, 'You snooze, you lose.' Irsay just wants us to be our best, and it appears he wants to be the Jerry Jones of the AFC."

The Titans are right back in the hunt for the South lead after a thrilling 23-19 win in Oakland last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick's 10-yard pass to Kendall Wright with 15 seconds left won it for the Titans.

"Right now," Mike Munchak said, "we're the AFC's No. 6 seed. So, if the season ended today, ours would end the following week."

Irsay urged the Colts to get their heads out of their asses. And what better place to do that than Lucas Oil Stadium, where you can lube up and lube out.

Indianapolis steps up their game, led by a defense that forces three turnovers, and a new set of inspirational plastic bracelets that read "Wake Up!" Andrew Luck throws for a score and runs for another and the Colts win, 24-17.

Chicago @ Minnesota (-1)

The Bears lost a 42-21 shootout to the Rams as St. Louis rushed for 261 yards. Despite the loss, Chicago remained in a tie for the lead in the NFC North due to the Lions loss to Tampa.

"The 'Monsters of the Midway' would be appalled by that performance," Mark Trestman said. "Against the Rams, there were no 'monsters'; there was no 'midway.' However, there was some 'halfway' — our effort.

"But if we need inspiration, we need to look no further than the Overstock.com commercial featuring Mike Ditka and Jim McMahon. Those two icons were cornerstones of the Bears' dominating run to Super Bowl XX. That was over 25 years ago. The Bears winning another Super Bowl seems light years away."

The Vikings let a 23-7 fourth quarter lead slip away in Green Bay and eventually settled for a 26-26 tie with the Packers. Minnesota is 2-8-1 on the season, and has yet to win a division game.

"Now," said Adrian Peterson said, "if we could only 'draw' in Minnesota. I can only fill so many seats, and I can only fill so many cribs.

"I know the Bears' defense has seen its share of criticism lately, but what they need is positive reinforcement. And I'm the man to give it, because I like what I see."

Chicago wins, 28-20.

Miami @ NY Jets (-1½)

The Ravens shut down the Jets offense last week, limiting them to only 220 yards of total offense in a commanding 19-3 win. Geno Smith was 9-for-22 for 127 yards and had 3 turnovers.

"There's zero tolerance," Rex Ryan said, "and then there's Geno tolerance. Those two levels of tolerance seem to be inching closer to each other.

"But Geno is still our quarterback. In other words, he's our quarterback, still. And speaking of quarterback stills, there's loads of them hidden in the woods of West Virginia, all producing moonshine in his honor. Geno's not 'White Lightning,' but he's 'Black Thunder,' though, because when he plays, you might hear a clap."

The Dolphins jumped on the visiting Panthers early, racing to a 16-6 halftime lead before a scoreless offensive second half left Miami with a painful 20-16 loss.

"I think this team has shown great resilience amid the specter of the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin situation," Joe Philbin said. "Personally, I've given more interviews than Regis Philbin. On that note, how is a Geno Smith pass like the answers my players gave to the NFL last week? They're all inaccurate."

New York wins ,17-13.

Arizona @ Philadelphia (-3)

The Cardinals blasted the Colts, 40-11, last week, giving head coach Bruce Arians a win over his former team. Arizona is now 7-4, solidly positioned for a run at a wildcard playoff berth.

"It was just like I was back on the Indianapolis sideline," Bruce Arians said, "because I knew everything going on."

The Eagles enjoyed a bye week to bask in the glow of their lead in the NFC East, which some consider the most competitive division in the NFL.

"Indeed," Chip Kelly said, "it is competitive. All four teams are equally as bad."

"Nick Foles will be the starter going forward. Now that that's settled, I wish our defense could stop going backwards."

The Cards keep the Eagles' offense in check for most of the game, but DeSean Jackson slips by a fallen defender for a late touchdown pass from Nick Foles. Jackson hams it up for cameras, channeling Terrell Owens when he shouts, "I love me some De!"

Carson Palmer fumbles in Philly territory on Arizona's final possession, and the Eagles hold on for a 24-23 win.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-8)

The Panthers stayed one game behind the Saints in the NFC South with a dramatic 20-16 win in Miami last week. Greg Olsen's one-yard pass from Cam Newton with 43 seconds left gave Carolina its seventh-straight win.

"That was a gutsy win," Ron Rivera said, "and a gutsy play by Cam Newton to draw a personal foul flag by taking a dive. That flag that was picked up against the Patriots just came back out. We have to be the most patriotic team in the NFL, because we pledge allegiance to the flag all the time."

Carolina wins, 22-17.

New England @ Houston (+9½)

Three early turnovers put the Patriots in an 24-0 hole against the Broncos last week, but a stunning second half comeback culminated in a 34-31 New England victory. The triumph put the 8-3 Patriots right in the thick of the hunt for the AFC's No. 1 seed.

"Peyton Manning's legacy was tarnished," Tom Brady said, "while mine was garnished.

"Now, our toughest task is to get motivated for the Texans. We know they want to win one for Gary Kubiak. Kubiak may be very close to losing his job. I don't think the clock has hit midnight just yet, but it's fast approaching. Call it a 'mini-stroke.'"

The Texans lost their ninth-straight game, losing 13-6 at home to the Jaguars.

"Is there a cold front coming through Houston?" Andre Johnson said. "Because we've reached a new low. But I'm looking forward to playing the Patriots. It will be as close as I've ever been to quarterback greatness."

New England wins, 31-20.

Atlanta @ Buffalo (-3½)

The Falcons lost a heartbreaking 17-13 decision to the visiting Saints in front of a national audience on Thursday Night Football. Atlanta is now 2-9, tied for last in the NFC South.

"Contrary to popular belief," Mike Smith said, "I'm not being run out of town. In fact, I'm being flown out of town.

"Is it true football fields in Canada are 150 yards long? If that's the case, then driving the length of the field becomes much more difficult for us."

The Bills entered their bye week after their 37-14 destruction of the Jets in week 11, and are ready for the struggling Falcons with a healthy E.J. Manuel.

"This is our traditional game in Toronto's Rogers Centre," Doug Marrone said. "And what better place than the home of Mayor Rob Ford to describe our 4-7 season with an 'Eh.' We're 1-4 in Toronto. That's not good. So, we're going to alter our pre-game routine. This time, we'll have our pre-game meal in Buffalo, because we have plenty to eat at home."

Buffalo wins, 30-20.

St. Louis @ San Francisco (-9½)

The 49ers broke a two-game losing streak with resounding 27-6 win over the dysfunctional Redskins in Washington. San Fran's defense sacked Robert Griffin 4 times and added 7 quarterback hits.

"That's a lot of knockdowns," Ahmad Brooks said. "But RG3 showed some toughness. And that's certainly fitting, because this has been a year in Washington marked by Indian 'uprisings.'

"I'm still seething about my penalty and fine for my hit on Drew Brees in Week 11. I feel like I'm getting mixed messages from the NFL and Roger Goodell, because they're telling me I need to lower the 'boom.'"

The Rams whipped the Bears 42-21 last week while racking up 261 yards on the ground. St. Louis is now 5-6, by no means out of what is sure to be a tight race for the NFC's wildcard berths.

"This will be a football purist's dream," Chris Long said. "Defenses will dictate the tempo of the game, and you can best believe there will be some big hits delivered.

"As a fellow defender, I fully support Brooks. I have no qualms of saying 'Praise Ahmad.' And I think it's ludicrous that he was fined $16,000. My teammate James Lauriniatis agrees. He's a linebacker, and the son of Road Warrior Animal, and James has never been flagged for clotheslining a quarterback."

San Francisco wins, 22-16.

Denver @ Kansas City (+5½)

Denver built a 24-0 lead in New England last week only to see their advantage disintegrate in a 34-31 overtime loss. The loss dropped Denver into a tie in the AFC West with the Chiefs, who the Broncos beat in Week 11.

"All the MVPs, All Pros, and touchdowns don't mean a thing if I can't beat Tom Brady," Manning said. "There's one 'Pat on my back' I'd rather not have.

"But Alex Smith is no Tom Brady. Brady has three Super Bowl rings. If you hear the words 'Alex Smith' mentioned along with 'three rings,' then you've obviously gone to his voicemail."

The Chiefs lost in a vital AFC West game, falling in a 41-38 shootout to the Chargers, led by 392 yards passing and 3 touchdowns from Philip Rivers.

"Our defense was just awful," Andy Reid said, "especially our pass rush. That's a complete turnaround from the beginning of the season, when our rush was in 'stealth' mode, because no one saw it coming. Well, it's still in 'stealth' mode, because it just disappeared."

Denver wins, 28-24.

Cincinnati @ San Diego (-1)

The Bengals lead the AFC North with a 7-4 record, with the Steelers and Ravens, both at 5-6, lurking close behind. They'll face a Chargers squad fighting for their playoff chances.

"I think we can make some noise in the playoffs," Andy Dalton said. "Of course, that all depends on how loud a collapse sounds.

"But I know I have to be a more consistent quarterback. Great quarterbacks put their teams on their backs. Oftentimes, I've put my team on their heels."

Philip Rivers' 26-yard touchdown pass to Seyi Ajirotutu with 24 seconds left gave the visiting Chargers a crucial 41-38 win over the Chiefs. San Diego is now 5-6 and firmly in the hunt for a wildcard spot.

"That was only Seyi's third reception of the year," Rivers said. "Of course, he'll get more. I definitely plan to call his number, because I surely can't say his name."

San Diego wins, 27-23.

NY Giants @ Washington (+1)

The Redskins were overpowered by the physical 49ers 27-6 on Monday Night Football. The 'Skins are 3-8 and face the 4-7 Giants on Sunday.

"It's tough when even officials are cursing your name," Robert Griffin said.

"What's the big deal with my father being in the locker room? Hey, I felt like I was in a boxing match after the 49ers game, so I need someone in my corner. That's why my dad is called 'Robert Griffin the Second.'"

Washington wins, 28-24.

New Orleans @ Seattle (-5)

In what could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, the Seahawks host the Saints at CenturyLink Field. A win by Seattle could very clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"We'll be without Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond due to drug suspensions," Pete Carroll said. "But we can be just as physical without them. Sure, the New Orleans' offense is potent, but we've manhandled every offense we've played. Our game plan is simple: we'll simply call the Saints' offense 'substance,' and abuse them."

Seattle wins, 26-23.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:08 PM | Comments (0)

Pay Peralta and Change the Rules

No sport is thicker with "unwritten rules" than baseball is, but beyond rolling my eyes or laughing at Brian McCann when he chastises opponents, usually much younger than him, for breaking these rules, I mostly just ignore it.

But without necessarily meaning to, Diamondbacks pitcher Brad Ziegler may have invoked a call for much more sinister unwritten rules than "don't show up your opponents when hitting a home run."

At issue is Jhonny Peralta, who, fresh off a 50-game PED suspension signed a fat four-year, $52-million dollar contract with the Cardinals. Ziegler was furious, and took to Twitter about it.

"It pays to cheat ... thanks, owners, for encouraging PED use," he tweeted, and in a follow-up tweet, said the signing is proof that the 50-game suspension is an inadequate deterrent to PED use. And I think he's right.

I would probably also support stiffer penalties for first-time use. But 50 games is what the players union and the owners agreed upon. Fifty games is the length of the suspension Peralta served. Ziegler is the Diamondbacks player rep, and here he is suggesting owners exact "unwritten" punishments beyond what was agreed upon by the owner's and Ziegler's union.

And that stinks to high heaven. What if there was a full-season suspension for first offenses? Would Ziegler think, "Well, okay then" if Peralta scored such a big payday after sitting out 162 games instead of 50?

If so, then he needs to tell us how many games a player needs to sit out before he is comfortable with big contracts for ex-offenders. If not, then he should push for lifetime bans after a first offense, or payment caps of some sort for players who test positive.

And in a way, that is exactly what he pushed for — a payment cap — in his tweet. But he's mad at the owners at not simply just preemptively doing it. I don't think I'd want to be represented by a union official asking the owners to act unilaterally to punish a player beyond the terms agreed to by my union. In fact, I think it's pretty sickening that Ziegler is taking this stance as a union rep.

Also, it appears Ziegler isn't too well-versed in baseball labor relations history. When owners, in secret, agree to pay players less, it ends up bad for players and bad for fans.

As Cardinals GM John Mozeliak pointed out, the Cardinals are not the morality police. And they shouldn't be. What they should do is abide by the agreements they make as transparently as possible. I.e., exactly what they are doing. This is not a "terms undisclosed" situation.

If Ziegler objects, then the thing to do, as he said himself, is create harsher punishments. I seriously doubt the owners would object to this. The potshot he took at owners is actually a potshot against transparency and a potshot against the players he is supposed to be going to bat for. Change the punishments, put it on paper, and until then, don't complain when the rules you helped draft are followed.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 10:34 AM | Comments (0)

November 27, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 13 (Pt. 1)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Green Bay @ Detroit (-7)

The 5-5-1 Packers head to Ford Field to face the 6-5 Lions in the traditional Thanksgiving game in Detroit. Last week, Matt Flynn took over for an ineffective Scott Tolzien and led the Packers to a 26-26 tie against the Vikings. With Aaron Rodgers still recovering from a broken collarbone, Flynn will start against the Lions.

"I asked Aaron what his favorite Thanksgiving food was," Mike McCarthy said. "He said, 'Not dressing.' Now, that doesn't necessarily answer the question I asked, but it does indicate his status for Thursday.

"But we're glad to have Flynn back with us. 'In like Flynn' is a term that's become synonymous with a quarterback who parlays one big game into a huge free agent pay day, then gets released. The Seahawks know what I mean. Matt was the only thing in Seattle that wasn't performance-enhancing.

"We're hoping Matt's 'in like Flynn' in Detroit. According to Ndamukong Suh, Matt will be 'out like a light.'"
Detroit lost for only the second time at home this season, 24-21 to Greg Schiano and the suddenly dangerous Buccaneers. Tampa's defense forced four Matthew Stafford interceptions, including a pick in the red zone with less than a minute remaining.

"I've got to commend Schiano for keeping his team together amongst much turmoil," Jim Schwartz. "Take it from me, he deserves a pat on the back, and a course of antibiotics. Schiano has a competitive streak that's rubbed off on his players. Obviously, that attitude is contagious, and is sweeping the Bucs' locker room."

Santa Claus shows up at the game, and hands out the brand new Megatron action figures to lucky fans. The figures show the same humility as Johnson. Even when you pull its string, it doesn't talk. Now, if it was a Dez Bryant or Brandon Marshall figure, you could push its button, and it would never shut up.

Stafford throws for 3 touchdowns, 2 to Johnson. Try as they might, Flynn and the Packers can't keep up.

Detroit wins, 30-27.

Oakland @ Dallas (-9)

The Cowboys returned from a bye week in impressive fashion, beating the Giants at MetLife Stadium 24-21 on Dan Bailey's field goal as time expired. Dallas is now 6-5 and in a tie with the Eagles atop the NFC East.

"Once again," Jerry Jones said, "Tony Romo was clutch. And our defense showed up. Therein lies the secret to our success — we need 'clutch' from our offense, and 'brakes' from our defense, because lately, they haven't stopped anything.

"Great job by Jason Garrett, also. By the way, he'll coach in 2014. There are a lot of people that say I should have been 'committed' long ago.

"Thanksgiving is a time of appreciation, and it's also a time of reflection. That's why I always start this special day by looking in the mirror and telling myself how great I am. Anyway, it's the 20th anniversary of Leon Lett's infamous muffed fumble recovery attempt of a blocked field goal in the snow against Miami. That cost us the game, but Leon's been forgiven for that. Let's face it, it's not the first time a Cowboy has made a bad decision while under the influence of a white, powdery substance."

In his second start, rookie Matt Mcgloin nearly led the Raiders to a win in Tennessee. But a late Titans comeback negated Mcgloin's heroics, and the Raiders head to Dallas with a 4-7 record.

"This is the biggest game of my career," Mcgloin said. "Nothing at Penn State prepared me for this kind of pressure, not even ethics class.

"I'm proud to represent the Raiders in Dallas. And I think we can pull off the upset. The venue formerly called 'Cowboys Stadium' is now known as 'AT&T Stadium.' There's a perfect storm brewing: the quarterback who played for 'Joe Pa' is in a building with ties to 'Ma Bell.' There's magic in the air."

Dallas wins, 27-23.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-3)

The Ravens secured a 19-3 win over the Jets last week behind four field goals from Justin Tucker and a solid if unspectacular effort from Joe Flacco. Baltimore improved to 5-6, two games behind the AFC North-leading Bengals.

"I'm looking forward to playing on Thanksgiving," Flacco said. "Finally, we can talk 'turkey' and I won't be the subject.

"Even though we're without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, it will still feel just like 'old times,' because we're playing the Steelers' defense. They say 'age ain't nothing but a number,' and the Steelers' number is 'up.' They're the oldest defense in the league. How old are they? Well, when you say 'Troy Polamalu is 43,' you may not necessarily be referring to his jersey."

The red-hot Steelers handled the Browns 27-11 in Cleveland behind a defense that forced four turnovers and a near-flawless performance from Ben Roethlisberger.

"Ben has been spectacular," Mike Tomlin said. "I think people have doubted him, and he's motivated by that doubt. He's used that doubt to his advantage, much in the way he's used 'reasonable doubt' to his advantage.

Baltimore wins, 20-16.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:17 PM | Comments (0)

What Will Steven Stamkos Do Now?

Just a few days ago, the hockey world raised a collective eyebrow when word came down that Steven Stamkos — Tampa Bay Lightning star and owner of a broken tibia — was already walking on his own, no crutches or cast necessary. In general, an injury of this kind requires no weight bearing for about two months, then another two months of partial weight bearing, then another one-to-two months of strengthening and flexibility exercises to get the muscle back to normal walking.

In the case of Stamkos? Try two weeks. The bone was broken clean, and the resulting surgery put a rod in his leg for stability. No word if the rod was made out of adamantium, but this sure seems to accelerate the initial prognosis of three to six months.

With the injury occurring in November, hockey pundits immediately began circling the start of the Sochi Olympics (February 12 for the men's tournament). What once seemed impossible now has become deliciously probable for both fans of Hockey Canada and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The timing of the Olympics offers a unique dilemma. Had it been one month earlier, Stamkos' participation would have seemed unlikely, and one month later, quite possible. The actual February date puts it in that gray area. There are pros and cons

If he plays...

Pros: For the Lightning, it's a chance for Stamkos to get his conditioning and timing back without sacrificing precious regular season points. And if Martin St. Louis is on the team, they'll undoubtedly by tied together, so timing and chemistry can be fine-tuned as needed for the stretch drive. Bigger international ice usually means there's less hitting, particularly along the boards, and the extra skating would probably be good for his conditioning.

Cons: While doctors wouldn't let Stamkos play when the original injury is still vulnerable, there's the question of related leg and core muscles being put at risk. The size of Olympic ice is a blessing and a curse given that situation, and if he go hurt again, that impacts both Team Canada and the Lightning.

If he doesn't play...

Pros: More rehab time never hurts a catastrophic injury, and the extended Olympic break would allow Stamkos to potentially use that time as a mini-training camp.

Cons: Nothing compares to the pace of a game, and even preseason games are better for timing than just training camp and practice. For the Lightning, that means regular season games will have to be spent trying to recover conditioning and timing, and for Hockey Canada, that means that they'll lose Stamkos' innate goal-scoring ability.

There's no real right decision here given the various parties with a stake in the situation. Stamkos' miracle recovery (so far) presents both a blessing and a curse: it opens up the door to a realistic return this season, but the external pressure of the Sochi Olympics creates a variable to his recovery from a very serious injury.

Posted by Mike Chen at 10:26 AM | Comments (0)

November 26, 2013

Sports Central 2013 Pro Bowl Selections

Five Quick Hits

* Knowshon Moreno is now one of nine players in NFL history to rush for over 200 yards in a loss. His 37 attempts were the most by a losing player since 2004.

* The NFL is all about image. Fining Ahmad Brooks for the hit on Drew Brees that drew a much-disputed flag "proves" the call was correct, so Brooks is out $16,000.

* It's not much of a spoiler that Andy Reid is my choice so far as Coach of the Year. But Bruce Arians (ARI) deserves serious consideration, as well, and I'm impressed with Ron Rivera's (CAR) transformation into Riverboat Ron. It's hard to change, but he's helped his team.

* Also, don't forget Darth Belichick (NE). The Patriots lost their whole receiving corps, their best RB has a fumbling problem, and their two best defensive players are on IR. They're 8-3 and two of their losses were controversial.

* The Pro Football Hall of Fame has announced this year's semifinalists. My preferences to advance: Morten Andersen, Steve Atwater, Derrick Brooks, Tim Brown, Don Coryell, Terrell Davis, Tony Dungy, Kevin Greene, Marvin Harrison, Joe Jacoby, Walter Jones, Will Shields, Michael Strahan, Paul Tagliabue, George Young. It is outrageous that Zach Thomas isn't a semifinalist.

***

Pro Bowl voting has been open for over a month, but now every team has played the same number of games. Here's a look at my ballot, in the new "unconferenced" format. If you'd like to vote along as you read, you can do so here.

Quarterback

Peyton Manning (DEN), Drew Brees (NO), Philip Rivers (SD), Russell Wilson (SEA), Tony Romo (DAL), Matthew Stafford (DET)

If we still had to vote by conference, the last spot in the AFC would be Tom Brady (NE) over Andrew Luck (IND). Brady has played great since Rob Gronkowski and company returned from the injured list, but he really struggled in the first half of the season. He ranks 10th in yards and 20th in passer rating. Luck has fallen apart without Reggie Wayne in the lineup, and even before that, he was more good than great.

The two players I have misgivings about leaving off my ballot are Cam Newton (CAR) and Aaron Rodgers (GB). Newton is a great player, and his team is rolling, but the Panthers aren't asking him to do as much as in the past. I think the guys I chose have done more for their teams. If Rodgers returns from his broken collarbone in the next week or two and plays at 100%, he'll deserve a Pro Bowl trip. He's got a proven track record, his stats are fantastic, and the Packers have collapsed without him (0-3-1). But if he doesn't come back this season, how do you omit someone like Romo (23 TD, 7 INT, 97.2 rating) or Stafford (ranks 3rd in yards and TDs) in favor of a guy who only played half the season? For the same reason, I'm not ready to vote for Nick Foles (PHI).

Running Back

LeSean McCoy (PHI), Jamaal Charles (KC), Matt Forte (CHI), Marshawn Lynch (SEA), Adrian Peterson (MIN), Knowshon Moreno (DEN)

The first five choices here seem pretty obvious. But narrowing down the final spot was brutal. Eddie Lacy (GB), who has played great but missed a few weeks with an injury, didn't even draw serious consideration with this competition. But how do you rule out Reggie Bush (DET), Alfred Morris (WAS), and Frank Gore (SF)?

Before Moreno's 224-yard performance on Sunday night, I had Gore penciled in for the last spot, beating the others on a tiebreaker for his years of meritorious service. But with Moreno out-rushing Bush (83), Morris (52), and Gore (31) combined in Week 12, I believe he deserves to edge ahead. Bush is a perfect fit for Detroit's offense, but Knowshon is the right fit for Denver, too. He's a good pass-blocker who understands what Peyton Manning needs him to do on every play, he doesn't go backwards, he's a pretty good receiver, and he's the only player on the team who doesn't fumble.

Morris averages 5 yards a carry, and he's closing in on 1,000 yards. He's a good, instinctive runner, and his style is great for Mike and Kyle Shanahan's system. But he comes out on passing downs, and his workload is down this year. I think Moreno means more to the Broncos. Gore is having another very good season in his very good career. He's a powerful runner who doesn't make many mistakes, and he's central to San Francisco's very limited offense. I like all these players, but Knowshon gets the nod for his all-around game and his importance in Denver's call-at-the-line offense.

I wouldn't have voted for him, but it seems wrong that Giovani Bernard (CIN) is not on the ballot. He's made some sensational plays.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson (DET), Brandon Marshall (CHI), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), DeSean Jackson (PHI), A.J. Green (CIN), Jordy Nelson (GB), Antonio Brown (PIT), Josh Gordon (CLE)

I know, I didn't vote for Dez Bryant (DAL). It was a tough call. But Bryant is 16th in the NFL in receiving yardage, and tied for 11th in receptions. He is a little better in TDs (t-8th) and first downs (t-6th), but he has a fumbling problem and self-control issues. Would you rather have Dez than Wes Welker (DEN)? All this guy does is get open and make plays. He already has a career-high 9 TDs, behind only Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas among WRs.

The toughest cut was actually Andre Johnson (HOU). In the years I've made my Pro Bowl ballot public (2002-13), the wide receivers I've voted for most are Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson, five each. Andre Johnson is a great player, and his numbers this season are super: top-five in receptions, yards, and first downs — and he's done that with three different quarterbacks. I just don't think he's the same kind of explosive difference-maker this year.

I would guess Nelson, Brown, and Gordon are the players who might invite some controversy on my ballot. Let's start with Brown: he leads the NFL in receptions and ranks 2nd in receiving yards. He's having a terrific year. Gordon, suspended the first two weeks, is averaging 110 yards per game, second only to Calvin Johnson. He's a play-maker no matter who the Browns use at QB. Jordy Nelson just might be the best clutch receiver in the league this year. He's got good numbers, and every time I see the Packers it seems like Nelson makes a big play when they need one. I'd be happy with Andre Johnson or Jordy Nelson, but if you gave me the choice, this year I'd go with Nelson.

Fullback

Bruce Miller (SF), John Kuhn (GB)

This position is so hard to vote for, because most of these guys get very limited playing time. Miller, though, has started every game. He blocks for Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick, and he has almost 200 receiving yards. Kuhn is a legit blocker and occasional short-yardage back. Darrel Young (WAS), who scored 3 touchdowns in Week 9, might be my third choice. Vonta Leach (BAL) is a perennial, but Baltimore's run game has been awful this year. If I was drafting a real team, we'd forget about a fullback and go three-wide or two tight ends.

Tight End

Jimmy Graham (NO), Vernon Davis (SF), Rob Gronkowski (NE), Julius Thomas (DEN)

Gronkowski is the best tight end in the NFL, and it isn't close, but he's missed half the season. If you want to use that last spot on someone with more playing time, I understand. But if he's still healthy a month from now, I know I'd be kicking myself for leaving him off.

The longer I study football, the more I care whether or not tight ends can block. I've complained about Jimmy Graham in the past, but my problem isn't that he can't block — he did a nice job on the first play of the Thursday night game against Atlanta — it's that he doesn't block. He usually leaves the field. If he stays on, he splits out wide and runs a fade to clear his defender out, or he looks for a cornerback he outweighs by 60 pounds and stands in front of the guy. I'd love to have him on my favorite team as a (huge) wide receiver, but he doesn't play tight end. Nonetheless, he's such a good player, he's got to be in the Pro Bowl, and this is where he's listed. I'll live.

Tony Gonzalez (ATL) is still dangerous. He has his moments, he's freed up opportunities for other teammates, and it's difficult to fairly evaluate a player who draws so much extra attention from defenses. But there are so many tight ends having good receiving seasons this year, and Tony's blocking isn't what it used to be. Antonio Gates (SD) is having a very nice comeback year, and I wish I'd gotten more looks at Jordan Cameron (CLE), though he's slowed down a little. Jason Witten (DAL) is having a little bit of a down year, but he's still very good. Julius Thomas is an underrated blocker and a play-maker with the ball in his hands. His big plays make up for the volume from guys like Witten, Cameron, and Gates.

Offensive Tackle

Michael Roos (TEN), Jason Peters (PHI), Trent Williams (WAS), Joe Thomas (CLE), Duane Brown (HOU), Andrew Whitworth (CIN)

Disclaimer at all the offensive line positions: I've seen about 70 games this season. That's roughly 4.5 per team, except it's not evenly distributed. There are some teams I've only seen once or twice, and that's really not enough to fairly judge players at a position which doesn't produce any stats. I'll have more faith in my year-end All-Pro selections, and I welcome feedback from knowledgeable readers if there are standouts I'm missing or mediocre players I'm overrating because I saw them on a good day.

I voted for a parade of left tackles. Most teams still put their best offensive lineman there, and those are the guys who impress me this year. I know some analysts believe omitting right tackles (and guards) is a crime against humanity, a denial of all that is fine and good in the world. If you want to try your luck with a true RT, I'll swing one of my guys over to the right side and we'll see who does better.

Whitworth and Brown have missed two games apiece, so if you prefer Joe Staley (SF), Donald Penn (TB), Nate Solder (NE), Tyron Smith (DAL), or a right tackle, that's reasonable. I also look forward to watching Charles Brown (NO) against the Panthers in Week 14, and I'd like more looks at the Chargers. But Duane Brown is really good, and the two games he missed were the first two games of Houston's nine-game losing streak. By the time he came back, the fans had turned on Matt Schaub and torpedoed their own season. The Bengals are 7-2 with Whitworth and 0-2 without him.

Offensive Guard

Andy Levitre (TEN), Mike Iupati (SF), Clint Boling (CIN), Marshal Yanda (BAL), Josh Sitton (GB), Brandon Fusco (MIN)

Iupati recently sprained his MCL, but that's not a season-ending injury. Levitre's move from Buffalo to Tennessee helps explain why Chris Johnson is having a pretty good year and C.J. Spiller is not. Boling, a 4th-round draft pick in 2011, has emerged as one of the best young linemen in the NFL. It feels weird not to vote for any linemen from the league's best offense, so you could probably make a persuasive argument for Zane Beadles (DEN).

Center

Max Unger (SEA), Jonathan Goodwin (SF), Brian De La Puente (NO), Travis Frederick (DAL)

In the mid-2000s, voting for this position was a dream. Kevin Mawae, Jeff Saturday, Olin Kreutz, Casey Wiegmann, Shaun O'Hara, Matt Birk ... you couldn't go wrong. The depth of talent then makes it hard to evaluate centers today, because I'm still holding them to a high standard. I'm not thrilled with these selections, but I've been impressed with the rookie Frederick, whose selection I criticized on draft day. I'm keeping an eye on Jason Kelce (PHI), and it's really hard to fairly evaluate Nick Mangold (NYJ) on such a terrible offense.

Defensive End

J.J. Watt (HOU), Robert Quinn (STL), Calais Campbell (ARI), Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ), Chandler Jones (NE), Michael Johnson (CIN)

Unlike center, there is an embarrassment of riches at this position. We have so many talented pass rushers in the league now, there are a number of good players who didn't make my top six. The Pro Bowl ballot lists 57 players at this position, a few omitted because of how 3-4 DEs are sometimes categorized.

J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the league. He has 9.5 sacks, which is among the league leaders, but he also has 46 solo tackles, most of any defensive lineman. He has 17 tackles for loss (best in the league), 3 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 pass deflections, and 2 blocked field goals. I know his team is awful, but Watt is a beast. Antonio Smith (HOU) is a nice player, but the thought of the Texans with Watt and Mario Williams (BUF) is intimidating. Williams has 11 sacks.

Quinn has 13 sacks and 6 forced fumbles. Campbell's underrated because he plays on a low-profile team, in a system that doesn't always lend itself to big stats, but he's been among the best defensive linemen in the league for a few years now. The Cardinals are 7-4, you know, and their offense kind of sucks. Michael Johnson (CIN) only has 3 sacks, less than half compared to teammate Carlos Dunlap (CIN), but he also has 8 passes defensed, most among defensive linemen. When you watch the Bengals, Johnson is the bigger difference-maker.

Charles Johnson (CAR) is a mauler, but a leg-whip from New England's Marcus Cannon sprained his MCL, and it's not clear when he'll return. Greg Hardy (CAR) is good, too, but not quite at the same level. Shaun Phillips (DEN) is on TV more often now that he plays with Peyton Manning, but he still seems to make a difference quietly. He's got 9 sacks, 5 pass blocks, and 2 forced fumbles. It's strange he doesn't get more credit nationally. Everyone raves about Cameron Jordan (NO). He's good, he's got 9.5 sacks, but I don't believe he's one of the top six DEs in the league.

Defensive Tackle

Dontari Poe (KC), Ndamukong Suh (DET), Gerald McCoy (TB), Justin Smith (SF), Randy Starks (MIA), Kyle Williams (BUF)

An absolutely stacked position. So many interior linemen are having good years, for the sake of brevity I'll just list other players I considered: Jurrell Casey (TEN), Darnell Dockett (ARI), Nick Fairley (DET), Jason Hatcher (DAL), Ricky Jean Francois (IND), Chris Jones (NE), Terrance Knighton (DEN), Star Lotulelei (CAR), Jared Odrick (MIA), Sheldon Richardson (NYJ).

Poe has 34 solo tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 4 PDs. The Chiefs have several great defensive players, but Poe is the crucial piece. Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus (BUF) benefit from the attention drawn by Mario Williams, but that works both ways. They're each having a nice season. I like Williams a little more than Dareus, Suh a little more than Fairley, and Starks a little more than Odrick.

Geno Atkins (CIN) was having another great year before his season-ending injury in Week 9. Kawann Short (CAR) isn't on the ballot, but he's a critical player in Carolina's front rotation. He might be better than Lotulelei.

Inside Linebacker

Karlos Dansby (ARI), Derrick Johnson (KC), NaVorro Bowman (SF), Daryl Smith (BAL)

Daryl Washington (ARI) has missed too much time to get my vote this year, but holy cow, he's a playmaker. Wesley Woodyard (DEN) is another ILB who probably would have made my ballot if he'd been on the field all season. The omission that especially kills me, though, is Sean Lee (DAL). He's having ... I guess you can't call it a breakout year, because he played well in 2012, too, but he was having his best season. You could vote for him and it wouldn't be crazy, but there are so many talented ILBs, I want guys who have played every game.

Back with the Cardinals, Dansby is having his best season. He leads the NFL in solo tackles (85), with 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, a touchdown, and 14 passes defensed. Fourteen. Cornerbacks are jealous of that number.

Vontaze Burfict (CIN) and rookie Kiko Alonso (BUF) are both having nice seasons, but their league leads in tackles only holds up if you give them credit for an unrealistic total of assists: 41 for Burfict, and 53 for Alonso. Compare that to Dansby (3), Johnson (9), or Bowman (16). It's not that assists are bad, but the statistic is kept so unevenly that it's basically meaningless. Alonso gets an assist if he's on the field when Buffalo makes a tackle. He does have 4 INTs. Luke Kuechly (CAR), like Alonso, flies all over the field making plays, but I want to see him take the next step. Burfict, Alonso, and Kuechly all play with good defensive lines that can keep them clear of blockers. Making tackles is par for the course.

Poor Paul Posluszny (JAC) is probably the best player on the league's worst team. His 79 solo tackles are 2nd to Dansby, plus he's got 2 picks and 8 PDs. Smith, a refugee from Jacksonville, has 3.5 sacks, 2 FF, 2 INTs, a TD, and 14 PDs. He's done a lot to ease the losses of Ray Lewis and Dannelle Ellerbe. I haven't seen a lot of the Rams, but James Laurinaitis (STL) seems to be having another fine season. Players who impress me every time I see them: Erin Henderson (MIN) and Brandon Spikes (NE). Henderson has 3 sacks and 2 INTs, and his 10 tackles for loss are the second-most among ILBs (A.J. Hawk, GB, 12). Spikes doesn't have numbers that would put him in the Pro Bowl, and he subs out in certain packages, but he always seem to find the ball-carrier.

Outside Linebacker

DeAndre Levy (DET), Robert Mathis (IND), Lavonte David (TB), Tamba Hali (KC), Thomas Davis (CAR), Ahmad Brooks (SF)

Outside linebackers are so tough to compare, because there really are two distinct positions: 3-4 pass rushers and 4-3 space players. For the first time in four years, I've chosen equal numbers of both. Levy is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions: a linebacker, with 5 INTs, returned for 75 yards and a touchdown. He also has 11 other PDs and 66 solo tackles. David, only in his second season, does everything. It's too early to compare him to Derrick Brooks, but David is a monster. He's got 70 solo tackles (most among OLBs), 5 sacks, a safety, 2 INTs, 6 PDs, and a forced fumble. Davis has 60 solos, 4 sacks, INT, FF, and 7 PDs. These guys are quick and smart — comparable to Lance Briggs (CHI), who was having a pretty good season himself until a shoulder injury.

Last week, I was ready to vote for both of KC's pass rushers, Hali and Justin Houston (KC). But a dislocated elbow might end Houston's season, so I replaced him with Brooks, who repeatedly destroyed Tyler Polumbus on Monday night. He's been making plays like that for a couple of years now. He's the Lamar Lundy of the SF linebacking corps' fearsome foursome: a great player overshadowed by big names. Mathis leads the NFL in sacks (14.5).

The return of a healthy Terrell Suggs (BAL) and the addition of former Bronco Elvis Dumervil (BAL) have helped the Ravens survive their offseason losses. Each has 9 sacks, Dumervil actually 9.5. Von Miller (DEN) is extraordinary, but he was suspended for the first six games of the season.

Cornerback

Alterraun Verner (TEN), Richard Sherman (SEA), Joe Haden (CLE), Keenan Lewis (NO), Tracy Porter (OAK), Patrick Peterson (ARI), Brent Grimes (MIA), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DEN)

Fourth-year CB Verner is tied for the NFL leads in interceptions (5) and passes defensed (16). He also has 2 fumble recoveries and a touchdown. Breakout year. Sherman, Haden, Lewis, Grimes, and Aqib Talib (NE) have all drawn attention as shut-down corners who can neutralize or contain an opponent's top receiver. Talib has missed three games, and he's lucky he didn't get thrown out against Carolina, but he's a valuable defender. Lewis, a free agent from Pittsburgh, has helped rejuvenate the New Orleans defense, and he doesn't get enough credit.

Former Saint Tracy Porter has 2 INTs, one of them returned for a touchdown, with a blocked kick, 11 passes defensed, and 4 tackles for loss, including 1.5 sacks. He's invisible in Oakland, but he's making big plays. No one seems to be talking about the injury to Rodgers-Cromartie, the turning point in Sunday night's Broncos/Patriots game. New England got shut out in the first half, then DRC got hurt and the Pats scored 34. The Broncos face a ton of pass attempts, and Rodgers-Cromartie has mostly held up. I don't like DeAngelo Hall's (WAS) style of play, and he's part of maybe the worst secondary in the league. But he has scored 3 TDs this year. He has 3 INTs, 2 FF, 1 FR, and 118 return yards. Washington hasn't been able to win without big plays from its defense, and most of them have come from Hall.

Tim Jennings (CHI) is having another big year statistically, and Darrelle Revis (TB) is tough even when he's playing hurt. Adam Jones (CIN) and Terence Newman (CIN) have stepped up since Leon Hall's injury. Brandon Flowers (KC) is solid, but he missed a couple games. Vontae Davis (IND) had a big game against Denver, but needs to show more consistency. Lardarius Webb (BAL) plays some really good games, but again, I'd like to see more of them. Prince Amukamara (NYG) continues to improve.

Strong Safety

Eric Berry (KC), T.J. Ward (CLE)

Berry and Ward lead all defensive backs in tackles for loss, 7 each. Berry has 8 PDs, 3 takeaways, 2.5 sacks, and a touchdown. Ward has 56 solo tackles, 2 INTs, 1.5 sacks, and a TD. Troy Polamalu (PIT) isn't the play-maker he used to be, but he also has 7 tackles for loss.

Mark Barron (TB), Bernard Pollard (TEN), and Major Wright (CHI) all have a lot of tackles and a couple of picks. Pollard probably is the best of the three. Antrel Rolle (NYG) has numbers, too, in part because injuries have forced this former CB into coverage. He's got 5 INTs and 9 PDs. Kam Chancellor (SEA), my choice last year in the NFC, doesn't have big stats this season, but he did deck an offensive tackle on national television, and that's got to count for something.

Free Safety

Earl Thomas (SEA),Tyrann Mathieu (ARI)

Thomas leads Seattle in solo tackles, 50% ahead of any teammate, plus he has 4 INTs and 2 FF. From a pure statistical view, you might go with Barry Church (DAL). He leads all DBs in solo tackles, forced 3 fumbles, recovered a fumble, intercepted a pass, defensed 6 other passes, and scored a touchdown. But Church is making plays partly because the guys in front of him aren't. He's not knifing into the backfield and creating chaos, he's cleaning up messes and making some good things happen.

The usual suspects are having good seasons. Ryan Clark (PIT) has been credited with a laughable 35 tackle assists, 12 more than any other DB. Reshad Jones (MIA) has a bunch of tackles and a TD. Charles Woodson (OAK) isn't the player he was a few years ago, but he's still making plays, including 50 solo tackles, 3 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, a sack, an interception, and a touchdown. Eric Weddle (SD) has 64 solo tackles and 7 PDs.

Mathieu hasn't generated much buzz for Defensive Rookie of the Year, because (1) he plays in Arizona, (2) he's not among the league leaders in INTs, (3) he was dismissed from LSU and people don't like him, (4) he's surrounded by established stars like Dansby, Peterson, and John Abraham. But Mathieu has 62 solo tackles, with 5 TFL, including a sack. He has 2 picks, a forced fumble, and 8 passes defensed. Arizona went 5-11 last year. This year, they brought in a new head coach, plus Dansby, Abraham, Carson Palmer, and Mathieu. Now they're 7-4 and very much in the NFC playoff hunt. Credit where it's due.

Da'Norris Searcy (BUF) made some big plays in relief of Jairus Byrd, but he's not on the ballot.

Kicker

Steven Hauschka (SEA), Stephen Gostkowski (NE)

Gostkowski leads the NFL in field goals (26) and field goal percentage (96.3%). He's 2/2 from 50 yards out, including a 54-yarder in Week 6, and he's already played a couple of games in pretty rough weather. Hauschka and Nick Folk (NYJ) are close behind, both with 24 FGs and 96.0% accuracy. I prefer Hauschka because he's got better distance (3/3 50+, 53-yd long) than Folk (1/1, 50-yd long), and his lone miss was actually a block. Hauschka and Folk are tied for most field goals of 40 yards and above (12 each), which are the ones that really demonstrate skill. Every kicker in the league will hit 95% or more of his kicks from inside 40.

Adam Vinatieri (IND) is having one of his best seasons, tying a career-high with four 50-yard FGs. I also like Dan Bailey (DAL), Dan Carpenter (BUF), and Matt Prater (DEN), though it's tough to judge Prater fairly in the altitude of Denver. He's 4/5 from 50 yards and beyond, and the miss was his only one all season.

Punt Returner

Dexter McCluster (KC), Tandon Doss (BAL)

No one's really having a great year. There are 10 players with a kick return TD this season. Let's just take those 10 and narrow it down.

10. Travis Benjamin (CLE) is not on the ballot.

9. Tavon Austin (STL) averages just 23.6 on kickoffs and 8.7 on punts, and he's fumbled 3 punt returns.

8. Keshawn Martin (HOU) has the lowest PR average (8.5) out of the 10, and 2 fumbles on KRs.

7. Marcus Sherels (MIN) fair catches everything. He has 14 punt returns and 20 fair catches. Don't be scared, homie.

6. Trindon Holliday (DEN) makes stupid decisions more often than any other player in the NFL. He catches punts he shouldn't, lets them bounce when he should catch it, runs everything out of the end zone, and fumbles a lot.

5. Micah Hyde (GB) has a poor KR average (20.8).

4. Dwayne Harris (DAL) fair catches too often, but he's got great averages on KRs (31.3) and PRs (14.0).

3. Devin Hester (CHI) has 3 fumbles and he's been to enough Pro Bowls.

2. Doss doesn't return kickoffs.

1. Neither does McCluster, but mad respect for 46 PR and only 6 FC.

Choose any two from the top five, I guess.

Punter

Thomas Morstead (NO), Jon Ryan (SEA)

I had seven finalists: Morstead, Ryan, Johnny Hekker (STL), Kevin Huber (CIN), Brett Kern (TEN), Adam Podlesh (CHI), and Mike Scifres (SD). With a pretty even split among those who play in warm weather or domes (Morstead, Hekker, Scifres) and those who play in tougher conditions (Ryan, Huber, Kern, Podlesh), I chose one of each.

Morstead's had to deal with a short field the most often, but he still has exceptional averages. Scifres, having a comeback season, is an ace near the goal line (20 punts down inside the 20, only 1 touchback), but his net average is about 2.5 yards behind Morstead's.

The bad-weather guys are really interesting. Ryan won me over basically for one reason: he has allowed 15 punt return yards this season. Not 15 punt returns — 15 yards. That's a sensational job of hang time and directional kicking. Podlesh is almost as good (96 yards), and he's superb at avoiding touchbacks (19 I-20, 1 TB). Kern and Huber also have done great work near the goal line, but I can't get over 15 punt return yards in 11 games. I know the coverage team deserves credit, too, but that's mostly Ryan.

Special Teamer

Marcus Easley (BUF), Darrell Stuckey (SD)

As always, many of my favorite special teamers don't appear on the ballot. Only 23 teams even list anyone. Kassim Osgood (SF) and Matthew Slater (NE) are probably the two best, but neither one is on the ballot. I do like Easley.

The teams I voted for most this season were the 49ers and Seahawks (7 each), then the Chiefs (6), Broncos and Saints (5 each). On the 2012 Pro Bowl ballot, my leading team was the Broncos (7), followed by the 49ers, Patriots, and Texans (6 each).

2013 Midseason Awards

Offensive Player of the Year — Peyton Manning (DEN)

Defensive Player of the Year — J.J. Watt (HOU)

MVP — Peyton Manning (DEN)

Coach of the Year — Andy Reid (KC)

Assistant — Rob Ryan (NO)

Rookie of the Year — Tyrann Mathieu (ARI)

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:07 PM | Comments (0)

Making Sense of the Peralta Deal

So what to make of the Jhonny Peralta signing with the St. Louis Cardinals, in the wake of his having been one of the Biogenesis 13? Among other things:

1) A four-year deal at $52 million dollars isn't exactly what anyone expected to see for a player bagged over actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances. Without that issue, however, it's a questionable deal considering Peralta's age (32), his faltering defensive range, and his batting average-dependent on-base percentage.

Grantland's Jonah Keri has observed he had a "flukish" .374 2013 batting average on balls in play; when his BAbip was 99 points lower a year earlier, Keri notes, Peralta's overall batting average was .239 and his on-base percentage .303 — 30 points below his lifetime average. His modest ability to take walks doesn't help; his none-too-great speed makes him something of a liability when he does reach base. But Peralta comes cheap in another way: he doesn't cost the Cardinals a draft pick, and spending dollars rather than forcing itself to deal prize young pitching for critical middle infield help is actually a bargain for the Cardinals right now.

2) To his credit Peralta didn't offer any reason why he indulged in whatever he indulged; he shook off any room to make excuses; he didn't talk about his free agency to be and any possible payday he might reasonably expect. But he also didn't seem to indicate he really understood the position in which he thrust the Tigers, who traded to get Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox because they suspected, at least, that Peralta was going to the deep freeze awhile.

3) Peralta returned in time to help the Tigers in the postseason, and there were surely those who wondered whether the Tigers had learned all that much from, say, the Giants' experience with Melky Cabrera in 2012. But Cabrera also engaged in confirmed subterfuge in a bid to cover his tracks, embarrassing the Giants even further, surely the compelling reason they refused him postseason participation. The Giants won the World Series without him. The Tigers welcomed Peralta back in part because he'd done nothing of Cabrera's sort in any bid to cover his hide. Peralta performed usefully enough in the 2013 postseason, all things considered. And it wasn't enough to help the Tigers reach the World Series.

4) You take seriously such complaints as from Arizona pitcher Brad Ziegler, who didn't mention Peralta by name but didn't necessarily have to. "It pays to cheat," he tweeted, almost as soon as the Peralta signing made the news. "Thanks, owners, for encouraging PED use." Ziegler followed up with two more, separate tweets. "People really don't understand how this works. We thought 50 games would be a deterrent. Obviously it's not. So we are working on it again," said one. The followup indicated who "we" might be: "Just trying to make our game better when I leave it than it was when I got into it. Don't have all the answers, but trying, & MLBPA knows..."

5) Then there were separate tweets from veteran free agent reliever David Aardsma. "Apparently getting suspended for PED's means you get a raise. What's stopping anyone from doing it?" read the first. "I had 2 major surgeries in 5 months and made it back clean, nothing pisses me off more than guys that cheat and get raises for doing so," read the second.

6) Those and other similar complaints didn't go unnoticed by Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak. "Character and makeup are something we weigh into our decision-making," ESPN quotes him saying. "In his case, [P]eralta admitted what he did, he took responsibility for it. I feel like he has paid for his mistakes, and obviously if he were to make another one, then it would be a huge disappointment."

7) Most of us don't necessarily expect inflated paydays when copping to professional malfeasance. Melky Cabrera faced free agency at the end of 2012; the Giants had made plain enough they had no intention of bringing him back even as a re-signing. He got two years and $16 million. So did Marlon Byrd, a PED suspendee in 2012. Peralta just finished a three-year deal worth $16.25 million. Call the Cabrera and Byrd deals four years at $32 million and Peralta will make almost twice that much over his just-finished deal with his new deal. If you presume what many if not most presume about actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances, then, yes, Peralta is getting a big fat raise for cheating.

8) We once presumed ourselves a society believing unequivocally in second chances. In the past couple of decades, it seems we've become one preferring to run miscreants off into oblivion for first offenses far less grave than Peralta's, though that tends too often to depend upon who is the miscreant and what if any vested interest we have in him. Concurrently, we've become one who'd let miscreants off the hook for first offenses far more grave than Peralta's. It's been a cliche long since, but you just might find far less outrage over a fat free agency contract handed an athlete physically attacking his spouse or girl friend.

9) It's wise not to dismiss Ziegler's and Aardsma's critiques out of hand. Giving a second chance is one thing, but leaving the impression that baseball, which has caught up to and even surpassed other organized sports in fighting off actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances, can yet neutralize its disciplines against its lawbreakers is something else. Sadly-departed Players Association chief Michael Weiner didn't move to quash the expressions of, say, Max Scherzer and Skip Schumaker when they spoke in the Biogenesis heat about measures such as contract-voidings for such baseball lawbreakers. Perhaps that's what Ziegler alluded to when he tweeted that "obviously" a 50-game deterrent wasn't quite sufficient. It's one thing to forgive a first-time offender who's served his sentence, but it's something else again to sign him to a big free agency deal that impresses even a few as neutralizing a deterrent.

10) By the present system as it is, the Cardinals committed no crime with the Peralta deal. But other than the contract-voiding idea Scherzer and Schumaker raised, there are those players who've kicked around such ideas as full-year suspensions for first offenses and lifetime bans for seconds; a penalty system based upon who just wants the edge and who used actual or alleged PEDs for other, viable reasons such as health concerns (they've been there, whether or not we admit or accept them, though such a system would impose the burden of proof on the player in question); delaying an offender's free agency for a year (Peralta might have seen a far different payday if that had been the case for him, of course); compelling a team penalty for signing a past offender. (What sort of penalty — paying into a PED education program? Forfeiting x number of draft picks? Forfeiting x number of free agency signings over the coming offseason?)

11) Another of the Biogenesis 13, Nelson Cruz, acknowledged his error as he was suspended, saying he'd gone to Biogenesis on behalf of a gastrointestinal infection that dropped his weight enough to alarm him about his playability. "I should have handled the situation differently, and my illness was no excuse," he said. He's still on his first free agency market at this writing. At season's end it was debatable as to what kind of payday he might see. The Peralta deal may have shrunk the margin of debatability considerably.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:25 AM | Comments (0)

November 25, 2013

And Now it All Comes Down to Iron

The Iron Bowl is as heated a rivalry as it gets in college athletics.

If you disagree, Harvey Updyke would like to have a word with you.

As was the case in the previous four years, this year's battle between the Tide and Tigers carries serious national title implications. This time, though, both teams are involved. For Nick Saban's 11-0 Tide, it's business as usual. For Gus Malzahn's 10-1 Auburn squad, it's a shocking surprise given last year's dumpster fire on the Plains.

Another year, another BCS title road going through the state of Alabama. This has to irritate Texas. This definitely irritates Bob Stoops. Let's face it; it irritates the nation. But there seems to be no end to the southern superpower.

Alabama seems to have been preparing for this game once they dismantled LSU. The Tide beat Mississippi State in a game that seemed as if 'Bama was sleepwalking. Despite State's record, winning a game at night in Starkville is difficult. Winning it with obviously not a solid effort? That's just being really, really good. Last week's romp of Chattanooga was just enough to get the kinks out, rest the starters and prepare for this Saturday. Now, it's business time for Saban and Co.

Furthermore, sexual assault charges swirling around Florida State's Jameis Winston, coupled with bad performances by Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota last Saturday, the chance is there for Alabama's steady hand at QB, A.J. McCarron, to steal the Heisman and cap what has been a career for the ages in Tuscaloosa.

Auburn has been preparing for it since they pulled off the miraculous upset of Georgia. Last-second wins have fallen the Tigers way this season; as they squeaked by Mississippi State, survived Ole Miss, stole a thriller from A&M in College Station and then smashed Georgia's hearts. Malzahn inherited a team that was built for his offense and it's clicked from the start. Tre Mason has been fantastic and Nick Marshall has proven he is a serious threat at quarterback, fulfilling Malzahn's desire of having a QB who can run while executing a spread offense. What's underrated has been the job Ellis Johnson has done for their defense. With the Auburn defenses under Chizik, the Tigers are 6-5 going into this game, even with Malzahn's offense. Johnson's influence has been that big for Auburn.

So, with RVs already pulling into town, all of Columbus, Ohio trying to find things blue and orange, a BCS title and potential Heisman candidacy at stake and the state of Alabama boiling over with football fever, the question remains: who wins?

In my mind, this game will mirror the 2009 game. A seriously revved up Auburn team will start the game on fire, stuffing 'Bama on the run, frustrating McCarron and taking an early lead thanks to some Nick Marshall trickery cooked up by Malzahn I expect Mason to have some big gains early and do a lot of end arounds to help spread the field. Then, after the early punch, Alabama will go to work. T.J. Yeldon will not let Auburn stop him all game and will start to loosen up the line, allowing McCarron to start picking the Auburn D apart.

Call it a hunch, but I see Amari Cooper, who has had a good but relatively quiet season, to step up and have his best game on Saturday. Auburn will counter, as Malzahn will throw his entire playbook at the Bama D. Mobile, quick QBs with good arms have had some success against the Tide this year (see Manziel, Johnny). However, the Tigers don't have a receiver like A&M's Mike Evans, who has been the only receiver to torch 'Bama's secondary this season.

So, basically, it'll be a tight chess match. Auburn will pull ahead early, 'Bama will surge afterwards and it'll be a fourth quarter battle. Unfortunately for Auburn, lucky breaks such as the miracle catch against Georgia don't seem to work against the Tide. And, in a high pressure game, you take the veteran QB and the team used to the spotlight. So, I'm going to say it's Alabama that punches their ticket to the Georgia Dome, beating Auburn 27-22.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 12:42 PM | Comments (0)

The Fan Who Transformed the Union

The Baseball Writers Association of America held a meeting during the All-Star Game break in New York. Major League Baseball Players Association executive director Michael Weiner, who enjoyed a solid relationship with the group, was an obvious target for questions. Weiner couldn't resist opening by asking, "Any questions not related to Biogenesis or brain cancer?"

The man who took the Players' Association reins from Donald Fehr in 2009, but died last Thursday of the disease that numbered his days by way of an inoperable tumor disclosed in 2012, watched All-Star batting practice in Citi Field from his wheelchair. By then Weiner was unable to walk or use his right side. He could and did, however, continue demonstrating that the cancer attacked his brain, not his mind or his spirit.

"I don't know if I look at things differently," said Weiner at that BBWAA gathering, his last known public appearance. "Maybe they just became more important to me and more conscious to me going forward. As corny as this sounds, I get up in the morning and I feel I'm going to live each day as it comes. I don't take any day for granted. I don't take the next morning for granted. What I look for each day is beauty, meaning and joy, and if I can find beauty, meaning and joy, that's a good day."

Maybe it was that kind of thinking that also allowed Weiner — a Yankee fan since his childhood in New Jersey — to shepherd the players' union forward from discomfiting eras of confrontation, against a management behaving as though seeking wars before resolutions, to an era in which the two sides generally have more common than uncommon ground.

Weiner personified reason (the word's been beaten to death in all the obituaries) while being a man of general cheer who refused to let any adversary grind him. Yet he wasn't self-possessed by any definition. "It was almost ridiculous," former major league general manager Jim Duquette told the New York Times. "You'd be negotiating contracts with agents, or just talking shop, and you'd always hear it: 'The most reasonable guy in the union, the guy with the best rationale, is Michael Weiner.' Then they'd go on to explain how he thought about something, and you'd think, 'Wow — this guy really gets it.'"

Players who felt intimidated by Fehr and his consigliere Gene Orza once upon a time felt anything but with Weiner even then, when he was the union's assistant general counsel. To them, he projected a casual appearance and demeanor while making any player from the lowest scrub to the top team star feel important. But he also had his ways of convincing players the time was overdue for facing and solving problems not tied to conventional labor/management issues.

Fehr and his predecessor Marvin Miller opposed drug testing with the best of intentions and the worst of approaches. Weiner codified what a slowly swelling volume of players understood: the issue of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances was bigger than all of them, and the time to fight them back was no longer the future.

A week plus after that All-Star Game rendezvous with the writers, Ryan Braun was bagged for the rest of the season as the first Biogenesis domino. He'd been foolish enough to refuse answering questions from baseball government earlier in the month. Weiner led the legal team persuading then-arbitrator Shyam Das to overturn Braun's first 50-game suspension in 2012, based on improper sample handling. But he had no intention of letting Braun make a fool of him twice.

He made it plain that the Players Association would not put up a fight on behalf of players suspended with "overwhelming evidence" that they indulged in actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances. When such players as Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer and Dodgers outfielder Skip Schumaker came out in favor of such measures as contract voiding for those caught indulging, Weiner did nothing to quash such thinking or speaking.

That kind of thing would have been unheard of under Fehr and even Miller. "Weiner correctly recognized," wrote FOX Sports's Ken Rosenthal, whose personal relationship with Weiner was a warm one, "that on the subject of PEDs, the conflict was not between players and owners, but players and players — those who cheated, and those who did not." And he communicated it with the same kind of reasonableness by which he communicated just about anything else involving the players' union.

Two decades before he became the union's executive director, Weiner helped determine how to distribute a $280 million collusion settlement from the owners. He helped secure the deal that settled the 1994-95 players' strike; he pitched in on two of the three labor deals securing baseball peace since 1997. The third (in 2011) he commanded as union chief: he helped get such major changes as signing bonus restraints for amateur players and swelling the number of free agents who can change clubs without compensatory draft picks.

He also helped get testing for human growth hormone — which isn't a steroid but is legal only with a proper medical prescription into that agreement.

"It took a while for the owners to appreciate," he once said, "that the union is not only here to stay but that the union and its members can contribute positively to a discussion about the game — about its economics, about the nature of the competition, about how it's marketed in every way."

That discussion will continue with former all-star Tony Clark succeeding Weiner, as had been agreed by the union when Weiner's illness took the point of no return. Once a respected first baseman whose work ethic was nonpareil, Clark is both the first former player and the first non-attorney to run the union even as an interim. But his thoughts about Weiner may indicate what kind of players' association leader he'll be while he handles the job.

"Where we are," he said last winter, "is a testament to Marvin, Don and Michael, and really what Michael has done the last three years, [is] transforming how we functioned for the 20, 25 years with Don and how we needed to change and adapt going forward."

Perhaps Rob Neyer speaks for many: "There's no telling what the next 10 years might have looked like. Perhaps the owners will become intransigent at some point, and if Weiner were still around, he would have become as publicly combative as Fehr and Miller before him. But I prefer to believe that Weiner's fundamentally good nature would have helped carry baseball through another 10 or 15 or 20 years of labor peace. And that he would have joined so many of my baseball heroes in Cooperstown. Because he really did seem to love both the people in the game and the game itself."

There was a key. Maybe the key. Like a commissioner before him who died prematurely, A. Bartlett Giamatti, Weiner genuinely loved the game and the game, whatever issues might disrupt for the time being, loved him back.

Weiner didn't have a Pete Rose scandal to dog him. But just as Giamatti's handling of the Rose matter showed baseball government in good hands, Weiner's handling of the Braun and Rodriguez cases showed baseball labor was in good hands. Just as Giamatti seemed to believe (in George Vecsey's phrasing) that the common good wasn't the same thing as just making money for the owners, Weiner seemed to believe the common good wasn't the same thing as just making money for the players.

You didn't always know what Fehr really thought about baseball, but you never doubted with Weiner. You could see him visiting spring training camps each year, not just to poke around his clients' thinking, but to watch them rounding into a season's shape. You could think of him suffering with Cub, Astro, or Royals fans; cheering at last with Pirate fans; sympathizing with Giants fans as struggling Tim Lincecum whipped a no-hitter; or, better yet, knowing his lifelong heart of hearts, dying to bust out of his wheelchair and scream with the masses as The Mariano became the All-Star Game's ceremonial and baseball story alike.

Maybe it took a genuine fan to shepherd the players' association's transformation from confrontation to consensus and pro-activity. Somehow, you knew that, so long as Weiner sat in the union's top seat, the most grievous issue wouldn't be grievous for very long, and that going to war rather than building a peace would be a fool's errand.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:36 AM | Comments (0)

November 22, 2013

Lord, We Give You Tanks

It was Tuesday night, one week ago. The recently instituted college basketball Tip-Off Marathon had just come to a close. After more than 24 hours of feeding hoops into our brains, it was time to detox. But before all the highlight shows could get their B-roll cut and delivered for broadcast, someone fired a shot across a whole league's bough.

In Chicago, four of the preseason's top five teams gathered to display some of the best talent that might be on NBA rosters by this time in 2014. It was a night for the balling youth of America to shine brightly ... and they did just that. Freshmen Julius Randle (Kentucky), Jabari Parker (Duke), and Andrew Wiggins (Kansas) all made their case to be the first pick in the 2014 NBA draft.

But leave it to Mike Krzyzewski to put a damper on any party NBA scouts might have planned on Michigan Avenue. After all the festivities quieted down, the Duke coach was asked if it was justifiable that professional organizations would tank this season in order to be at the front of the line for these talented kids. He responded in kind:

"As an American, I wouldn't like to think that an American team would want to lose, or create situations where you would want to lose. I can't even fathom — I can't go there. I can't believe that that would happen. Now, maybe I'm naive and I'm going to go read a fairy tale after this, but if that is happening, shame on whoever is doing it."

Now, while I respect the man and his legacy, I'm not going to be the one organizing a parade in his honor. But, in this instance, I've got to agree with the NCAA Division I wins leader. I may not go so far as to say "shame on you," but the whole process has me shaking my head in bewilderment.

Since the end of the last NBA Finals (heck even before that), everybody had an eye on the pool of players eligible to enter the Association next June. While some teams just needed to stand pat for the assurance of a lottery wish, others (namely Boston, Philadelphia, Utah, and possibly Denver) made some movement of key, aging talent. Sure, these moves also accumulated future picks to help build from the ground up. However, there's no secret that this may be the best draft to have a front seat to since 2003 (LeBron, anyone?).

Even with a buffet of potential stars to choose from, though, my mind can't make the intention of tanking logical. And I've had my own tendencies to see one of my favorite teams throw away a season (the Chiefs steadied their ship two seasons ago, missing out on Andrew Luck). So, what reasons are there for this particular strategy not working out?

1) Prideful Intentions

The goal in professional athletics is to win. Coaches are hired to produce playoff berths. Players are selected to gel and become a postseason force. To nudge these folks, who should be using the pressure of contracts, media, and fans to create victories, to "take some time off" seems absurd. Sure, the talent level of each team is different, but every team has the same ultimate goal going into training camp.

The first month-plus of this season has shown that the idea of tanking can backfire. Heading into Tuesday night, most of the teams you might think of as being in the "sweepstakes" are under .500. However, the Sixers started 3-0 on the season and lead the Atlantic Division (at 5-7). The Celtics won four straight after starting 0-4. And Phoenix, who probably wouldn't mind adding another piece to the roster, sits at a surprising 5-4.

2) The "Powerball" Effect

More than any other sport, one player can turn the fortunes of the basketball franchise. Unlike the other major sports, the worst team isn't guaranteed first crack at the talent pool. The team with the worst record has struck gold only four times out of the 29 times the lottery's been held. The last time that happened ... 2004.

Compare it to playing Powerball or Mega Millions. The randomness of hitting those numbers could pay off in retirement, but the rarity doesn't really make logical sense (believe me, I've played those number enough to know). When you look at the odds, what's the point in trying to secure the most ping pong balls in the chamber? There's no guarantee at the bottom on the standings, and there's no trend letting teams know which spot near the bottom should be coveted.

3) The Depth of This Draft

In years when there's only one or two "can't-miss" prospects putting their name in, I guess it's a little more logical. But, according to some, this could be the best draft class since the '03 contingent that included James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade ... maybe even better.

Parker, Wiggins, and Randle leading the prospect list, but there's still room for Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State), Aaron Gordon (Arizona), Gary Harris (Michigan State), and more (including the rest of Randle's teammates and all the foreign-born players). With so many possibilities, what's so bad about having a top-10, or even 15, pick this time around?

4) The "Bust" Factor

You know this is a possibility. For every Patrick Ewing, there's at least a couple Kwame Browns. As much as the lottery is an imperfect science, upside can create even more room for failure. Some players might need a change in coaching to blossom. Some may even have to wait for a change in address to hit their peak. And, for whatever reason, some first picks just can't live up to their full promise.

So, is it worth it? Are the trials of losing and embarrassment worth the opportunity to create a new, more hopeful experiment? Some front offices might say yes. For me, the logic doesn't add up. But sports aren't logical, and that's what makes them fun.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 2:14 PM | Comments (0)

November 21, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 12

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (+9)

The Saints took a tough 23-20 win over the 49ers last week, pushing their record to 8-2, best in the NFC South. New Orleans, which beat the Falcons 23-17 in Week 1, faces Atlanta in the Georgia Dome on Thursday Night Football

"Thanks to Ahmad Brook's clothesline of Drew Brees," Sean Payton said, "the 49ers got hung out to dry. And I'm sure they're upset. But they should understand; this is New Orleans. Brees doesn't have a bounty on his head, he's got a halo.

"As for the Falcons, we can't take them lightly. This is what's known as a 'trap' game in the business. So, after we win on Thursday in Atlanta, you may very well hear Arthur blank say 'Pull!' and Mike Smith get released."

The Falcons' painful season continued in last week's 41-28 loss to the Buccaneers. At 2-8, Atlanta is in the NFC South basement.

"I'm disappointed," Smith said. "Many in Atlanta believe that I myself should be 'dis-appointed,' which I believe is another word for 'fired.'

"We're just downright rotten, which makes us just right for the role of spoilers. But we've got a chance to throw a kink into the Saints' plans. And the best way for us to do that is to beat them. The best way to do that is to sack Drew Brees. According to some NFL officials, there is no best way to do that."

New Orleans wins, 34-17.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (-1)

The Steelers outgunned the visiting Lions 37-27 last week behind 367 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air from Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh improved to 4-6, tied for second in the AFC West behind the 7-4 Bengals.

"All the talk is about my future as a Steeler," Ben Roethlisberger said. "I'd love to stay in Pittsburgh, especially if the Detroit defense hangs around, too. Now, if you hear the words, 'I want to stay,' those words were more likely uttered by me, rather than a chick imprisoned in a bathroom.

The Browns 41-20 loss to the Bengals last week seriously damaged Cleveland's hopes in the AFC North. Jason Campbell threw three interceptions as Cleveland fell to 4-6 in the division.

"I don't think the Steelers are dumb enough to let Roethlisberger leave," Rob Chudzinski said. "And I don't think Big Ben wants to leave. Behind that offensive line, he's too busy running to 'walk.'

"We're perpetually in the market for a franchise quarterback. We'd love to have Roethlisberger, but I'm not sure we can afford him. Despite our location on the banks of Lake Erie, it would take all the money in the Bank Of Lake Erie to lure Roethlisberger."

Pittsburgh wins, 27-24.

Tampa Bay @ Detroit (-9½)

Tampa won their second in a row, overwhelming the Falcons 41-28 last week. Now 2-8, Tampa is tied with the Falcons at the bottom of the NFC South.

"We've won two straight at home," Greg Schiano. "I'm really proud of our guys. Their enthusiasm is back. You wouldn't believe how fast they stormed out of the locker room on Sunday. That's what a MRSA outbreak will do.

"I'm still looking for the win that defines our season. In other words, I need to 'win over' the city of Tampa."

Detroit huge days from Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, Detroit lost 37-27 in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 2 touchdowns in the final five minutes as the Steelers erased a 27-23 Detroit lead.

"Just call us the 'Litany Lions,'" Jim Schwartz said, "because in heavy contrast to our offense, we have a litany of problems on defense.

"But who needs defense when you have Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. Megatron is the only receiver in the NFL who vacations on Revis Island."

Detroit wins, 34-19.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-3½)

The Packers host the Vikings in a game likely to be decided by quarterback play. Both teams have faced recent quarterback issues; the Packers are down to third-stringer Scott Tolzien, while the Vikes' situation is equally as dire.

"That's right," Leslie Frazier said. "The Packers have one third-stringer to manage; I've got three. You can best believe Brett Favre's phone is ringing off the hook. And believe you me, when Favre's cell phone makes noise, it goes 'ding-dong.'"

The Packers lost to the Giants 27-13 last week in their second game without Aaron Rodgers. Tolzien passed for 339 yards, but threw 3 picks and no touchdowns.

"Despite his mistakes," Mike McCarthy said, "Tolzien does have one thing Aaron does not, and that's a healthy collarbone. Aaron's broken clavicle is a big deal in Green Bay. It's the most-shared picture of a bone since Favre was in town."

Green Bay wins, 27-19.

San Diego @ Kansas City (-5)

While the Chiefs and Broncos battle for the AFC West division title, the Chargers are languishing towards another mediocre finish. With last week's 20-16 loss in Miami, the Chargers have lost three in a row to fall to 4-6.

"The Dolphins bullied us," Philip Rivers said, "and made us do things we didn't want to. And we left Miami. It's amazing how much we have in common with Jonathan Martin. And we may be too far behind to reach the playoffs. It seems, much like Martin, we're not coming back."

The Chiefs lost their first game, dropping a 27-17 decision in Denver on Sunday night. The Broncos and Chiefs face off again at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 13.

"The road to the AFC championship still has to go through Kansas City," Andy Reid said. "According to the Broncos, there are three routes: around, through, and over."

Kansas City wins, 28-24.

Chicago @ St. Louis (even)

The Rams are energized after a bye week following their 38-8 demolition of the Colts in Indianapolis in Week 9. St. Louis in 4-6, in last place in the NFC West, and they'll host the 6-4 Bears, who are tied atop the NFC North with the Lions.

"We finally got a breakout performance from Tavon Austin," Jeff Fisher said. "If you read scripture, then you've probably never heard of 'Austin 3:16,' which, loosely translated, means 'It's about time.'

"But our success is predicated on our defense. And I expect our defense to get after Josh McCown. We've got two defensive ends, Robert Quinn and Chris Long, who can make that happen. When they plant quarterbacks on the ground, we call it the 'Greatest Show of Earth.'"

Chicago fought back from a 10-0 deficit, and a lengthy weather delay, to nip the Ravens 23-20 in overtime. The Bears pulled even with the Lions atop the NFC North.

"It was a great comeback victory," Mark Trestman said. "I think the threat of a tornado gave my players a sense of urgency. After I told them, 'Just wind, baby,' they went out and played with no fear."

St. Louis wins, 26-24.

Carolina @ Miami (+3½)

The Dolphins edged the Chargers 20-16, posting a much-needed win in the wake of the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin scandal. Miami is now 5-5, three games behind the 8-2 Patriots in the AFC East.

"I think we answered a lot of questions with this win," Joe Philbin said. "Unfortunately, none of the questions were asked by the NFL. But that's changed. NFL investigators are on us like white on rice, or Asian stereotyping on Rob Gronkowski. I believe pundits are calling our scandal 'Interro-Gate.'"

The Panthers nipped the Patriots 24-20 last Monday night and remained one game behind the Saints in the NFC South.

"I know the Dolphins are dealing with a lot of issues," Ron Rivera said. "I've read Incognito's infamous text to Martin, and it's clear how that could leave a bad taste in the mouth of Martin, not to mention the entire franchise.

"But that's their problem, not ours. This team wouldn't think of having a person like Incognito on a leadership committee. In fact, we don't need a leadership committee. We've got Steve Smith. He's a great leader. Often, he leads with his fists. Because of his temper, we call him 'Evil Nelly,' because in regards to his head, it's always getting hot in there."

Carolina avoids the letdown, and forces three Ryan Tannehill turnovers. Graham Gono kicks three long field goals, and the Panthers win, 23-9.

NY Jets @ Baltimore (-4)

The Jets fell to 5-5 after a pitiful effort in a 37-14 loss in Buffalo last week. Geno Smith had 4 turnovers, and New York has yet to post consecutive wins on the season.

"Fourteen points didn't cut it in Buffalo," Rex Ryan said. "And 14 points won't cut it in Baltimore, unless it's the deer antler spray harvested from a 14-point buck. People say my coaching is a lot like deer antler spray, in that there's very little evidence that it works.

"This is a big game for Ed Reed. He's making his return to Baltimore as a Jet. Some say Ed's lost a step. Houston says he's lost two, thus a 'Texan two-step' out the door."

The Ravens fell to 4-6 after their 23-20 overtime loss to the Bears in Chicago. Joe Flacco struggled, with only 162 yards passing with 2 interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

"I really don't know what to expect from Joe," John Harbaugh said. "However, I do know what to expect from Nike. And that's a 'Joe Blows' advertising campaign.

"I heard the Jets went to Dave and Buster's on the Saturday before their game at Buffalo. That means Santonio Holmes was at Dave and Buster's. From that, I can only assume there was a lot of tokin' going on."

How many turnovers will Smith and Flacco combine for? I'm not sure, but there are seven letters in "several."

Baltimore wins, 16-13.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-10)

After a 2-0 start, the Texans have now lost eight in a row after last week's 28-23 home loss to the Raiders in Gary Kubiak's return after a mini-stroke. Matt Schaub took over for an ineffective Case Keenum and nearly led the Texans to a come-from-behind win.

"It was a frustrating loss," Schaub said. "I even argued with Andre Johnson afterwards. Of course, nothing was resolved. That just goes to show that even in a shouting match, the Texans can't win.

"There's a picture of DeAndre Hopkin's junk floating around the internet. What does that have to do with our season? I don't know. I do know we need to take a long, hard look at it and determine what we could have done differently."

One week after upsetting the Titans, the Jaguars lost to the Cardinals 27-13. Jacksonville is now 1-9, last in the AFC South.

"The Texans are ripe for the picking," Gus Bradley said. "Unlike Kubiak, their season collapsed long ago. Unlike Kubiak, they were unable to pick themselves up.

"The Jacksonville city council approved $43 million in upgrades to EverBank Field. I think most of that money will go towards making the seats smaller, so it takes less people to fill them."

Houston wins, 27-21.

Tennessee @ Oakland (-1)

With Terrelle Pryor out with a knee injury, rookie quarterback Matt Mcgloin took over and led the Raiders to a 28-23 win over the Texans in Houston. An undrafted free agent out of Penn State, Mcgloin threw for three touchdowns as the Raiders improved to 4-6.

"I think Penn State prepared me well for the NFL," Mcgloin said. "I look back fondle, excuse me, fondly, at my time there."

The Titans lost to the Colts 30-27 last Thursday, a loss which likely ended any hopes for the AFC South title. Tennessee is 4-6, three games behind Indy with six games to left.

"The bad news is we're 4-6," Mike Munchak said. "The good news is, the race for the AFC wild card berths is wide open. Why can't we be one of those wild cards? I see nothing stopping us, except qualifying."

Tennessee wins, 17-16.

Indianapolis @ Arizona (-1)

The Colts improved to 7-3 with a hard-fought 30-27 win in Tennessee last Thursday and solidified their grip on the AFC South lead.

"We've got a solid three-game lead in the South now," Andrew Luck. "That makes our division leadership a lot like a pass to Darius Heyward-Bey — it won't be caught."

The Cardinals whipped the Jaguars 27-14 in Jacksonville last week, posting their third consecutive win. Carson Palmer passed for 419 yards and two touchdowns in his best outing as a Cardinal.

"We've quietly amassed a surprising 6-4 record," Palmer said. "That ties us with the 49ers for second in the NFC West. So, like the 49ers, we're also asking, 'What happened?'"

Indianapolis wins, 24-21.

Dallas @ NY Giants (-3)

The Cowboys return from a bye week and face the Giants at MetLife Stadium. In their last outing, Dallas gave up over 600 yards of offense to the Saints in a 49-17 loss.

"That's two weeks in a row we didn't show up," Jason Garrett said.

"Former Cowboy Will Allen said the Cowboys are micromanaged. Still others say the team is micro-coached. I think that means there's 'too little' coaching."

The surging Giants won for the fourth-straight time, knocking off the Packers 27-13 to improve to 4-6 in the NFC East, just a game-and-a-half behind the Eagles.

"There will be blood," Jason Pierre-Paul said. "And we will also drink the Cowboys' milkshake.

"We feel like we can score on the Cowboys. In saying that, I'm referring to their defense and offense."

New York wins, 30-27.

Denver @ New England (+2½)

Even on a gimpy ankle, Peyton Manning did more than enough in leading the Broncos to a 27-17 win over the Chiefs, forging a tie in the AFC West in doing so. Manning passed for 323 yards and a touchdown and was not sacked at all.

"The ankle was bothersome," Manning said, "but I still performed up to my standards. Not only was I as busy as one, I was the one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.

"I look forward to the challenge at New England. I'm sure the Patriots are ready to put the Carolina loss behind them. That non-call was quite controversial. It seems that, once again, the league has rewritten the rule book for the Patriots. What's it called when an official picks up a flag and stuffs it back in his pocket? The 'Tuck Rule.'

The Pats lost in Carolina 24-20 in a game that ended with a controversial interference no-call in the end zone. Despite the loss, New England still holds a two-game lead in the AFC East.

"Not only is might tight end's name Rob Gronkowski," Brady said, "it's also what the officials did. We were robbed, at least of a chance to win. In the end, the Panthers just edged us. Or nipped us, if you ask Gronkowski."

Boston Red Sox superstar David Ortiz surprises the Patriots with a pre-game motivational speech, then surprises them even more with a pre-game meal from his brand new pizza chain, "Big Papi John's."

Patriots win, 31-28.

San Francisco @ Washington (+5)

The 49ers suffered a heartbreaking loss in New Orleans last week, done in by a questionable roughing call on Ahmad Brooks on a sack of Drew Brees that forced a fumble. The penalty kept the Saints eventual game-winning drive alive, and Garret Hartley's field goal gave the Saints a 23-20 win.

"That was not a hit to the head," Jim Harbaugh said. "But I'll tell you what is: the slap in the face we just took. It's certainly ironic that in New Orleans, of all places, you have to pay for supposedly hitting a quarterback in the head. I thought it should be the other way around."

The Redskins fell to the bottom of the NFC East after a 24-16 loss in Philadelphia. The 'Skins are 3-7, 2½ games behind the division-leading Eagles.

"An official cursed out Trent Williams in the Eagles game," Mike Shanahan said. "But did you hear Tom Brady on Monday night. Let's call it even.

"There's a lot of leadership being questioned in Washington. In light of the controversy surrounding the 'Redskins' nickname, I may regret saying this, but it appears we have 'too many Indians and not enough chiefs."

San Francisco wins, 34-16.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

November 20, 2013

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 36

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson clinched his sixth Sprint Cup championship, and first in two years, with a ninth at Homestead. He finished the season 19 points ahead of Matt Kenseth.

"That's Cup number six," Johnson said. "Now it takes two hands to indicate my championships. That makes me a second-hand champion, and that's something everyone needs to get 'used' to."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth started on the pole at Homestead and finished second, as Jimmie Johnson clinched the Sprint Cup championship. Kenseth finished second in the standings, 19 points back.

"We gave it our all," Kenseth said, "but that wasn't enough. And it's painful. But, all in all, it was a successful year for Joe Gibbs Racing. Still, JGR gently weeps."

3. Kevin Harvick — In his last race for Richard Childress Racing, Harvick took 10th in the Ford EcoBoost 400. He finished third in the points standings, 34 out of first.

"Like Kurt Busch, I'm off to drive for Tony Stewart," Harvick said. "I expect a smooth transition from RCR to Stewart Haas. Why? Because with Busch as a teammate, I already want to leave."

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished third at Homestead, posting his 10th top-five result of the year. He completed the year fifth in the points, 56 behind Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson.

"I was awesome over the last five races," Earnhardt said. "In fact, I scored more points over the final five Chase races than Johnson and Matt Kenseth. Unlike me, Johnson can look back fondly on the 'first five.'"

5. Kyle Busch — Busch finished seventh in the Ford EcoBoost 400, scoring his 22nd top-10 result of the year. He finished the season fourth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 55 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I'm happy to have a respectable Chase finish," Busch said. "But this championship is all about Jimmie Johnson. Six Cups is historic. Based on his driving, Jimmie deserves a statue. Based on his personality, he is a statue."

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon, who won last year at Homestead, took 11th on Sunday, just missing his 18th top 10 of the year. He is sixth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 82 out of first.

"Jimmie Johnson raised the championship trophy for the sixth time," Gordon said. "I guess you could say, 'The world is his hoister.'"

7. Joey Logano — Logano, in the No. 22 Penske Ford, finished eighth at Homestead. He finished eighth in the points standings, 96 out of first.

"My friends call me 'Sliced Bread,'" Logano said. "My enemies call me 'Slight Build,' probably because I'm no threat, to them or the Sprint Cup championship."

8. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski won Saturday's Nationwide Ford EcoBoost 300 and finished sixth in Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400. Jimmie Johnson clinched the Sprint Cup title as Keselowski's one-year reign as champion came to an end.

"This year gave me very little to shout about," Keselowski said, "and even less to tweet about. But I'm still one of NASCAR's most individualistic drivers. Hopefully, when all is said and done, they won't be calling me the 'one and only' because of my single Sprint Cup title."

9. Greg Biffle — Biffle struggled with handling issues and came home 24th at Homestead, finishing ninth in the points standings, the highest among Roush Fenway Racing drivers.

"I'm of good mind to give Jimmie Johnson a piece of my mind," Biffle said. "Maybe that way, he'll give me a piece of his, and I can finally say I have the mindset of a champion."

10. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished fifth in the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead. He finished seventh in the points standings, 83 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Did you see Johnson's victory burnout?" Bowyer said. "It was impressive, but didn't produce anything like the smokescreen I made with my spin at Richmond."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:45 AM | Comments (0)

November 19, 2013

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Hey, television networks: going to commercial during a 30-second timeout is chintzy and rude. Knock it off.

* I hate the Bumblebee uniforms. Teams should only use throwbacks when they aren't horrible.

* Most surprising statistic this season: lost fumbles. The Broncos have the most (13) and the Jaguars have the fewest (3).

* Several games this week played in serious wind. Chicago got the most attention for obvious reasons, but neither the Browns nor Bengals scored going against the wind.

* Did you see UFC 167 on Saturday night? Check out the unofficial scorecards from MMA media. Or tweets from fighters after the decision was announced. I thought Johny Hendricks pretty clearly won the first, second, and fourth rounds. (Second link is NSFW)

***

This happened in Week 10, and my column that week focused on the bizarre Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito drama in Miami, but I really want to discuss something from the Broncos/Chargers game: Jim Nantz's on-air freakout when it was suggested that the Chargers, down 28-19 in the fourth quarter, might go for two, to make it a 7-point game.

Nantz was furious. He didn't just think it was a bad idea, he was unmistakably angry, almost yelling. Phil Simms is the most respectful of analysts, and someone who clearly likes Nantz and enjoys working with him, but he actually had to tell Nantz to calm down: "Take a drink of water." I recall something similar a few years ago, when Mike Tirico briefly went insane because he was upset about the Cowboys trying a two-point conversion. Two things I don't understand:

1. Why do these guys get so emotional about two-point conversions?

2. Why are they a bad idea?

Two-point conversion percentage in the NFL is almost 50%, and the conversion is worth twice as much as an extra-point kick. Purely on the math, they're very similar. But here's the part I really don't get ... Nantz and Tirico insisted that the teams couldn't go for two right away, because then they might not be able to go for two later. Huh?

Why does the order matter? Let's take last week's Broncos/Chargers game. San Diego was down 28-13 with about 10 minutes left. A touchdown made it 28-19. If you kick the extra point, it's 28-20, and you still need a two-point conversion later. This was Nantz's main objection — the extra point assures a one-possession game. But scoring 8 and then 7 is the same as scoring 7 and then 8, and likewise with 7 and 6. And what if you miss the conversion later? You lose 28-26. If you miss the conversion right away, it's 28-19, but now you know you need two scores. You can adjust your strategy at this point. If you miss later, you just lose.

If you make the conversion — and you've got about a 50% chance — then all is well. If you miss, it's better to know early that you need an extra score. Right? I don't understand why it's a big deal either way — why these announcers lose their minds over it — but if a two-point conversion attempt is inevitable, I don't see what you gain by putting it off, whereas there is at least one clear advantage to going for it early. Am I missing something? In any case, these guys need to act like professionals when they're on the air.

Power rankings are for current strength, not a summary of the whole season.

1. Denver Broncos — Scored more points against the Chiefs (27) than anyone had all season. It was Denver's lowest scoring total of the year. Keep an eye on the injuries to Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Neither is long-term, but one or both could be questionable for next week's game at New England.

2. Seattle Seahawks — Best record in the NFL (10-1), best point differential in the NFC (+127), and they just got Percy Harvin back.

3. Carolina Panthers — Six straight wins, two against top-10 teams and the other four by an average of over 20 points.

4. New Orleans Saints — At home, they're 6-0. They've beaten some good teams and outscored the opponents 199-95. On the road, they're 2-2, including a loss to the Jets, and they've outscored the opponents 89-88. A great team has to be great in more than half its games. The Seahawks are amazing in Seattle, but they're also 5-1 away. The Saints need to show they can win on the road.

5. San Francisco 49ers — Pro Bowl guard Mike Iupati reportedly has a sprained MCL. That's not good news, exactly, but it certainly could have been worse.

6. Kansas City Chiefs — They've scored 25 TDs this year. The Broncos have scored 51. But both teams have substantial home-field advantage, so their Week 13 matchup could easily go the other way.

7. New England Patriots — You never want to see a big game turn on a controversial penalty, and you never want one to end on a controversial non-penalty. I think I would have been more bothered by a pass interference and ball at the 1 than by the no-call, but I've still never heard an adequate explanation for why illegal contact can't be called in that situation. I have all the respect in the world for Rob Gronkowski — the best tight end in the NFL, by far — but the ball looked uncatchable to me.

8. Cincinnati Bengals — Beat a division rival by 21 and went 2½ games up in the AFC North, but the offense is worrisome. In Week 9, Andy Dalton had 4 turnovers and no touchdowns. In Week 10, he was a fantasy defense's best friend: 5 sacks, 3 INTs. On Sunday, 93 yards and 2 picks. That's three straight weeks with a passer rating under 65. Defense and special teams bailed him out on Sunday, but you can't usually go 1/14 on third down and score 41 points.

9. Indianapolis Colts — What does someone have to do to get thrown out of a game in this league? Erik Walden grabbed Delanie Walker's facemask, used it to rip the helmet off Walker's head, hurled the helmet 15 yards downfield, and then head-butted Walker in the face. This happened right in front of an official, who gave Walden a 15-yard penalty and a very sharp slap on the wrist. You get in more trouble than that for sacking Drew Brees.

UPDATE: The league has suspended Walden for one game. Better late than never, I guess.

10. Arizona Cardinals — Three wins in a row, and they're the last team to beat Carolina. Daryl Washington has been making big plays ever since he returned from suspension.

11. Dallas Cowboys — I still think they win the NFC East. Yeah, their defense has given up the most yardage in the NFL, and yeah, the Saints embarrassed them last week. That's one game. A year ago, the Ravens lost 43-13 to Houston. It was a terrible, humiliating performance, but they came out of it okay. So can this year's Cowboys. Dallas has an easier remaining schedule than the Eagles or Giants, and tiebreaker wins over both. The Cowboys go 9-7 and win the East.

12. New York Giants — Four victories in a row after their 0-6 start. Those four wins came against the Vikings (2-8), Eagles (6-5), Raiders (4-6), and Packers (0-3 without Aaron Rodgers), and all except the Eagles were at home. I'm not sold, and Eli Manning's next 3-INT game is always just around the corner. The NFC East is mediocre-to-bad this year, but it's going to take 9 wins for a division title, and I don't see the Giants going 5-1 down the stretch.

13. Philadelphia Eagles — Third straight victory, and their first home win in over a year. They clearly have Washington's number, and Nick Foles looks like the answer at quarterback.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers — After a dismal start (0-4), they're 4-2 since the bye, including two straight wins since their blowout loss to the Patriots in Week 9. Guess that "Ben Roethlisberger wants a trade" distraction wasn't such a big deal. Nice halftime adjustment to shut down Calvin Johnson.

15. Detroit Lions — In the first half, Matthew Stafford was 16-of-30 for 327 yards and 2 TDs, with no sacks or turnovers. Calvin Johnson caught 6 passes for 179 yards and both TDs. The Lions gained 16 first downs, including 5/9 on third downs, and scored 27 points.

In the second half, Stafford was 3-of-16 for 35 yards and an interception, with 2 sacks for 18 yards. Calvin Johnson caught no passes. The Lions gained 5 first downs, including 1/7 on third downs, and didn't score. They lost 37-27. It's silly to blame a fake field goal for Stafford's 3/18, 17-yards-and-a-pick performance in the second half. If the Lions had gotten any production from their offense in the second half, or not allowed Pittsburgh a season-high 37 points, they would have won. They blew it on both sides of the ball and lost by double-digits. This isn't about one play, and I don't buy the momentum argument. Detroit had already begun the second half with two three-and-outs, and was only up by 4..

16. Miami Dolphins — They rank 31st in yards per game, averaging just 308. That's ahead of the Jaguars, but it's more than 100 behind six other teams, almost 150 behind Denver. The Dolphins are tied with the Jets for the last playoff spot in the AFC, but they're behind on tiebreakers, and they have December games outdoors in New York, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo.

17. Cleveland Browns — Lost four of their last five, but all against teams ranked higher than this (Bengals, Chiefs, Lions, Packers with Aaron Rodgers) and mostly on the road. Their next two are at home against teams with losing records.

The Browns have attempted and made the most fourth-down conversions in the NFL (11/23). The desperate Jags are next in both categories (8/20).

18. Chicago Bears — Jay Cutler has a laser, rocket arm, and Josh McCown is a career back-up. But it's not obvious to me that Cutler is a better option at QB right now. Season stats:

Comp% NY/A TD% INT% Rating
Cutler 63.0 6.62 4.9 3.0 88.4
McCown 60.4 7.00 5.0 0.0 100.0

(NY/A is net yards per attempt: passing plus sacks)

It's too early to suggest that McCown is a better fit than Cutler, but Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte have played well with both quarterbacks, so it seems silly to rush Cutler back or make a huge financial commitment to him.

19. Baltimore Ravens — They seem to attract game delays. Unlike the Super Bowl and the season opener, I actually appreciated the two-hour delay in Chicago this weekend. I got to watch Bengals/Browns in the meantime, and flip back and forth between Bears/Ravens and Saints/Niners during the second game slot.

20. Buffalo Bills — I agree with the Bills about their schedule being unfair. More than half of their opponents were coming off a bye or a Thursday night game, with extra time to rest and prepare, including three division games. According to the NFL's research department: "Since 2006, teams coming off a bye week or extra rest from a Thursday night game win 54% of the time." Fifty-four percent instead of 50 is roughly the difference between 8-8 or 9-7. That's not a trivial change, and it's not fair for it to happen to one team in half its games.

The page I linked, by the usually intelligent Gregg Rosenthal, makes one of the most absurd comparisons imaginable: "Teams that repeatedly play on 'Monday Night Football' are also at a disadvantage the following week, but teams love that spotlight."

1. The Bills aren't playing on MNF. They get no advantage from playing well-rested opponents, including "spotlight."

2. Monday Night games are a difference of one day. The Bills are talking about advantages of 3-7 days.

3. No one plays half their games on Monday night. Three times a season, max. The Bills have already had six games against extra-rested opposition. That's ridiculous.

21. New York Jets — Least predictable team in the league. In the last four weeks, they've beaten the Patriots and Saints, but lost to the Bengals and Bills by a combined 63 points. It's not reliable in partial seasons, but according to the Simple Ranking System at Pro Football Reference, the Jets rank 31st, ahead of only Jacksonville. When Geno Smith is bad, he is horrid. The Jets rank last in the NFL in turnover differential, -14.

22. St. Louis Rams — In preseason, I wrote, "The Rams probably won't post a great record in the competitive NFC West, but the team has a promising collection of young players to build on." That still seems about right. With improved QB play and a decent draft, it's easy to imagine St. Louis as a top-10 team next season.

23. San Diego Chargers — Flashes of promise, but they're 0-3 since the bye. They need some big plays from the defense. San Diego is tied for last in takeaways (7).

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Two wins in a row, and they now have the same record as the Falcons, Texans, and Vikings — all playoff teams from last season. Tampa's -50 point differential ranks 24th in the NFL.

25. Oakland Raiders — Second-to-last in first downs, barely ahead of Jacksonville, but they've scored 20-28 points in four straight games. Going forward, it will be interesting to see how the team handles Matthew McGloin and Rashad Jennings relative to starters Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden. Rushing stats:

Pryor: 504 yds, 7.4 avg, 2 TD
Jennings: 480 yds, 5.2 avg, 2 TD
DMC: 352 yds, 3.6 avg, 4 TD

26. Green Bay Packers — With Aaron Rodgers, they're a top-10 team. Without him, they've lost three in a row, all to mediocre opponents.

27. Tennessee Titans — Just once, I would like to watch a game in which Ryan Fitzpatrick plays, and not hear the word "Harvard." Just once.

28. Houston Texans — By yardage, they rank 8th in offense and 2nd in defense. They've lost eight in a row, but two of the next three games are against Jacksonville.

29. Minnesota Vikings — Most points allowed of any team (320). Every opponent has scored at least 23. The Vikings have Kevin Williams, Jared Allen, Chad Greenway, Erin Henderson, two first-round picks from April's draft. At what point do you blame the coaching staff?

30. Washington — Coming off a Thursday night game, they had 10 days to prepare for the Eagles. Apparently that wasn't enough. Washington is in last place in possibly the worst division in football. Actually, though, with the Eagles and Giants coming around, and Houston falling off the edge of the world, the AFC South might be the weakest division now.

In last week's game against Minnesota, foolish Special Teams Coordinator Keith Burns repeatedly kicked away from Minnesota returner Cordarrelle Patterson. You kick away from great punt returners, not kickoff guys. There is no kickoff returner in history so dangerous that it makes sense to kick away from him, other than maybe on the last play of the half or something.

Since the expansion to 32 teams, there have been nine seasons in which a returner averaged 30 yards per kickoff, but four of those returners had exactly 16 KRs, just one per game. So let's say 5 seasons of 30-yard average, with a high of 31.6 (Joe McKnight, 2011). That only happens once every two or three seasons, but if you're facing the very best returner in the league, that 30-yard-average guy, and you kick off five yards deep in the end zone, his average return brings it out to the 25-yard line. A squib kick usually ends up beyond the 30. I know, you don't want to give up a touchdown. The single-season record for KR TDs, in a 16-game season, is three. Three! That's less than once every five games. Kicking away from dangerous punt returners can be good strategy, but on kickoffs, you're just giving away yardage. It's idiotic.

31. Atlanta Falcons — At the beginning of the season, they were okay-ish. In the last four weeks, they have lost by a combined total of 135-61, all the losses by double-digits. If you had told me before the season that Houston and Atlanta would both make my bottom five, I would have stopped believing you were a visitor from the future.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars — They're 1-9. All nine losses were by double-digits. This week's 13-point defeat was actually their second-closest loss of the season.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:40 PM | Comments (0)

November 18, 2013

The Prediction Problem

Last week, Ohio State wide receiver Evan Spencer raised the eyebrows of college football writers and the blood pressure of his head coach by responding a little too enthusiastically to a hypothetical question about his team's national profile. Asked how the Buckeyes would perform against the BCS' top two teams, Spencer said OSU would "wipe the floor" with Alabama and Florida State.*

*On a side note: What was Spencer supposed to say about this question? Sure, we might question his humility or the upside of poking a pack of wild beasts, but isn't this what he is supposed to think? And doesn't any rational person already know this? So was the point of even asking this question just to exploit a less-than-savvy student athlete for media fodder?

Once undergarments were unbunched and unruffled, the story was eventually reduced to the meat of Spencer's analysis. How would Ohio State or any of the other potential BCS titleist compete against each other?

What a waste of time.

So often, we are fooled into believing single games reveal the true nature of a team. Team A beats Team B, and it's hard to imagine a world where Team B won. It's an easy mistake to make given small samples and little time for nuanced discussion.

Consider Saturday's Georgia/Auburn thriller. On fourth down and with less than a minute left, Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall heaved a desperation pass easily defended by two Georgia defensive backs. But in their zeal to end the game, the backs knocked the ball up and into the path of Ricardo Louis, the Auburn receiver who looked like he had the third-best chance of receiving Marshall's pass. It was the most influential of flukes as the path of that tipped ball essentially decided the outcome of the game.

Many games are close, and Auburn has no reason to apologize or discredit their win over Georgia. Whatever you want to award to the winner of a game, the Tigers should have full hold of it. And yet, many will graft bland narratives onto the result, uncomfortable to consider that we experience but one set of outcomes.

In a perfect world, teams would play long series where flukes play a minimized role in determining an outcome. But even just acknowledging that winner-take-all outcomes disproportionately award credit would be a major improvement.

As we watch the BCS abdicate to next year's playoff, it's critical to remember the fatal flaw that limited the current system's success. By focusing so much on the polls, the BCS forced voters into mental experiments of "who would beat whom?" Even entertaining this framework is a mistake.

The truth is, we can never really know how a game between two teams would turnout. We can identify skill sets and tactics and determine one side would need more fortune to find a path to victory, but sports, and especially football, are a collection of randomized experiments linked in series. Fortune is always woven into the final score.

All of which leads to one simple plea: Consider teams based on their resumes, nothing else.

The Eye Test. Momentum. Who Would Win.

Those are the subjective ways lazy voters evaluate teams. But like the work of psychics, palm readers, and other hucksters, they are smoke-and-mirror tools.

When it comes to picking teams to play in college football's biggest games, I don't care about recruiting. I don't care about the NFL draft. I don't care about last year. All that should matter is what they did on 12 or 13 Saturdays in the fall (We'll use "Saturday" loosely here to also represent certain Thursdays, Fridays, and other days found to be deserving of college football).

Unfortunately, the sport is not setup to reward this approach. During SEC media days this year, Steve Spurrier was one of many coaches to suggest he was interested in scheduling no more than 10 competitive (read: BCS-conference level) games per year. For most top programs, at least three of those BCS-conference games will be complete mismatches. We've now pared down sports' shortest schedule to approach a half dozen opportunities to prove who is any good.

The reasons why are obvious. With a buffer of just months, most fans and boosters won't remember against whom coaches padded their win totals. Fans come to the home stadium to see a win, even if it comes over a tin can. And undefeated is undefeated, even if the vanquished were filled with straw.

But we need to be smarter as fans and we need to demand smarter of our year-end selection process. The polls are broken. The baggage of years of SEC vs. the world has piled up. Everyone seems to have some kind of agenda and some kind of inane way of envisioning future performance. The sport is screaming for objectivity and standard evaluation.

The NCAA basketball tournament, we're told, does this kind of analysis. "Who did you beat?" and "Where did you beat them?" are worthy criteria. Let's see it on the gridiron as well.

We can forgive Evan Spencer for not bringing this rationale to an off-hand comment about his own team in the face of a BCS snub. But without this soon-to-be retired system to kick around anymore, what will be our new excuse?

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 10:04 AM | Comments (0)

Hoops Preview: The Piece de Resistance

For a college basketball program, it appears that the biggest advantage to a holiday tournament would be chance to face quality opponents in a March-style setting. For a college basketball fan, the biggest advantage to these events is seeing entertaining matchups with a one-shot kind of urgency that a trophy can evoke. Over the last couple of years, the best fusion of the two have come from two locations more known for their vacation status than their basketball prowess.

Old Spice Classic (Nov. 28 & 29, Dec. 1)

Obvious Team to Watch: Oklahoma State has high expectations for this season. There was quite a bit of buzz a couple of seasons ago. Le'Bryan Nash was the hot incoming freshman, and Markel Brown had a breakthrough sophomore campaign. Then Marcus Smart came to Stillwater. The talented Texas native proved enough to garner quite a few National Freshman of the Year awards. Now, the trio looks to build on their chemistry and push toward a Big XII championship.

Under the Radar Team to Watch: The Memphis Tigers lost some firepower with D.J. Stephens graduating, Tarik Black transferring, and Adonis Thomas going pro. However, what returned might be even better. The backcourt of Joe Jackson, Chris Crawford, and Geron Johnson returned for their senior seasons. Shaq Goodwin will have a chance to improve in his sophomore campaign. And they bring in Missouri transfer Michael Dixon, who can be counted on to add some scoring punch. If there's a team that can fill the bucket this season, Josh Pastner's team might be it.

Best Early Matchup: Butler vs. Washington State

This is more a matchup of what might be. The Cougars have to reinvigorate themselves without standout big man Brock Motum (graduated). They have a couple more 6'10" of taller bodies to throw in the low post, but it appears Ken Bone will be looking to his backcourt for points, at least early on. The Bulldogs may not need to totally reinvent themselves. But what can new head coach Brandon Miller do to piggyback off the success of Brad Stevens? Keeping four players that started 10 games or more last season (including Khyle Marshall and Roosevelt Jones) should help.

Best Potential Final: Oklahoma State vs. Memphis

By the time this column is up on the SC site, we could already have an idea of what this tilt would look like (they play Nov. 19th in Stillwater). A rematch on a neutral court would be very enticing. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers average 78-80 points per game. And, in my opinion, the Cowboys have the one of the three most athletic rosters for this season. Bottom line ... this game would be fun ... again.

Battle 4 Atlantis (Nov. 28-30)

Obvious Team to Watch: It isn't just that Kansas has the best roster in the tournament ... they also have the highest-touted player in Andrew Wiggins. But the super frosh is not the only player to contend with in this lineup. Naadir Tharpe and Perry Ellis made their presence known late last season. They return to help ease the pain of losing Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey. Memphis transfer Tarik Black has been able to play immediately, providing some very athletic experience. In other words, coach Bill Self has reloaded.

Under the Radar Team to Watch: Wake Forest took a lot of lumps last season. However, the Demon Deacons were quite young (half of their scholarship players were freshmen). While it made for a lot of growing pains, it also gave them the opportunity to grow together. With one junior, one senior, and one post-grad on the roster, Jeff Bzdelik's team won't be fighting for the 2013-2014 ACC championship. Don't be surprised, though, if they scrap out a few upsets along the way (and in the consolation side of this setup).

Best Early Matchup: Xavier vs. Iowa

The Musketeers are trying to break out of their own transition period. There is more experience coming back instead of walking out the door. And, one thing for sure, Chris Mack will make his kids play hard-nosed and to the final buzzer. The Hawkeyes made a late push last season and just missed out on an NCAA bid, and everyone is back for a repeat performance. They also add Wisconsin transfer Jarrod Uthoff to the mix, which should help ease the loss of guard Josh Oglesby (who could be out until conference season starts).

Best Potential Final: Kansas vs. Tennessee

If Oglesby was in the lineup, I would have put Iowa in Tennessee's place. The Vols do return quite a bit from last year's team that was on the outside of the NCAA bubble. Cuonzo Martin also gets a lift by welcoming former Memphis guard Antonio Barton cross-state. Despite last week's loss at Xavier, the Vols are the best combination of health and talent in the bottom half of the draw. And in the top half, does any team have enough to stay up with Kansas? Didn't think so.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 9:14 AM | Comments (0)

November 15, 2013

Let There Be Replay, at Long Enough Last

"I'm for the game the way it is," Tommy Lasorda said, emphasis on is. "It's been like that for years. And I think it should stay that way." Lasorda was one of several Hall of Famers discussing instant replay, which the owners have now voted to go forward with a major expansion of using instant replay in 2014.

Imagine if Lasorda had said those words about, say, the old and discredited reserve clause. "It's been like that for years" finally didn't cut muster when Messersmith-McNally went to arbitrator Peter Seitz. It sure as hell didn't cut muster when Happy Chandler gave Branch Rickey his blessing to sign Jackie Robinson for the Brooklyn Dodgers. It finally didn't cut muster, more or less, when it came time for the owners to vote the proverbial brass tacks.

Appropriately.

The owners met Thursday and approved the funding. They'll vote and are expected to approve precise rules come January, after they finish hashing them out with the Major League Baseball Players Association and the World Umpires Association. Current and former umps would be the ones to rule contested calls from New York while watching games and replays.

Currently only contested home runs and foul line balls can be subject to replay. How will expanded replay work? Managers get two challenges a game and no more, and successful challenges won't count against the limit. Managers running out of challenges would mean umpires likely to call reviews on their own. With apologies to Groucho Marx, it seems so simple a child of five could understand it. Based on some other Hall of Famers' responses to the issue, someone should have sent them a child of five.

Earl Weaver got it. "As long as you've got human error involved," he said in an interview before his death, "and the umpire's seeing a play one way and you're seeing it the other way, the only way to decide it, the correct way, is through technology."

That came from a man who refined arguing with umpires into his own singular art. If Weaver stood for nothing else during his long and distinguished managing career, he stood for getting it right. Whether regarding his players on the field or the umpires on the calls. Lasorda wasn't exactly a shrinking violet when it came to a debate with an umpire or three, but leaning on the game the way it "is" and has "been like" for years leaves him in the dinosaur cage.

"I think it helps the game," said Tony Gwynn. "It helps the fans. I think it helps both teams. Because, again, the objective is to get the call right."

Gwynn must have been watching the World Series closely last month. Game 1 in particular. When it took less time for a television viewer to realize St. Louis shortstop Pete Kozma never got his hands on a first inning ball toss behind second base, intended as a double-play relay on to first, than it took for an entire six-man umpiring crew to overrule Dana DeMuth's incorrect out call.

The ball bumped the web of Kozma's glove and fell to the ground. He never got so much as a fingertip on the ball. DeMuth called out; the crew overruled. By the time the umps finished their review, viewers at home saw four television replays showing Kozma never touched the ball for any kind of out. The error led to Mike Napoli banging a double off the Green Monster and three runs home when left fielder Shane Robinson bobbled the carom, enabling even rumbling David Ortiz (whose grounder to second started the controversy in the first place) to score from first.

"The only time I want all that instant replay, I mean all that stuff," said Al Kaline, "is during the playoffs and the World Series, because you hate to go home on a bad call." How about down the stretches of tight pennant races? Would you thrive on blowing a trip to the postseason because of a bad call? What about a pitcher who's one out from a perfect game — Jim Joyce's prompt apology notwithstanding, do you think in his heart of hearts Armando Gallaraga was thrilled to go home knowing he'd lost a perfecto on a blown call?

If it isn't broken, don't call the repairman. That's sound as a nut. But when you can fix something that can and too often does mean something less than fair play, that's not sound, that's nuts.

Harmon Killebrew wasn't nuts by any definition of the term, but the inappropriately-nicknamed Killer (there may have been no gentler giant this side of Frank Howard in his time) stood squarely on the side of the dinosaurs before he died. "To me it's the human element part of the game," he said about replay before his own death. "I think that should stay that way. Maybe I'm from the old school, but I think that's the way it ought to be played."

Don Denkinger doesn't. The man whose ninth-inning blown call in Game 6 of the 1985 World Series made his name mud in St. Louis got on board with instant replay several years ago. It didn't do much to sooth those Cardinals, but it does plenty to atone for his missing a call that everyone in Royals Stadium including the surprised but grateful Royals knew he'd blown.

"There are so many areas you can use instant replay," Denkinger told the New York Post in 2010. "Maybe instant replay can clean things up. If a play is missed, it can be corrected. I didn't feel that way in '85, but I feel that way now"

The manager who fumed over Denkinger's miss, Whitey Herzog (who once gave Denkinger a Braille watch, good-naturedly, at a commemoration of the '85 Cardinals' pennant), has been saying it for years, just the way he said it in his splendid memoir, You're Missing a Great Game: "Bad calls at the bases and along the foul lines can be fixed in two seconds with a look at video," wrote the White Rat. (Did I mention he's a Hall of Famer, too?) "You'd have to put some limits on it, but that's what we ought to do. Like I said, this is for the championship — let's get it right."

Jim Bunning concurs. "Is the whole intent to get the play right, or isn't it?" asked the Hall of Fame pitcher turned U.S. Senator. That should have been the sole question around the issue. "Yes, umpires make mistakes. But if you have a replay, and you can correct it, that would take the human element out, and it should be taken out if it's wrong."

Doug Harvey, one of the better National League umpires for many years (he called many a game Bunning pitched), demurred. "You're taking all the humanity out of baseball if you're gonna do that," the Hall of Fame umpire said. Why don't we just get robots and let them play the game? I mean, if you don't need umpires out there and you can put robots out there, why do we need ballplayers?"

That argument is as erroneous as the one thrown up by the human elementalists saying reviewing or replaying a play is going to take up a crushing amount of time. No staunch replay advocate of my acquaintance ever wanted the umps taken out of the game. But the Kozma miscue should have shot the time element to pieces. If that didn't, the Jim Tracy argument of 2012 should have.

Then the Colorado Rockies manager, Tracy got into a row over a shallow fly ball that was trapped, not caught, by a Dodgers outfielder. He lingered arguing even more vociferously well after he got the thumb for slamming his cap to the ground. By the time he was finished, it had taken the umpires a few minutes to review and adjust the call and, counting Tracy's debate before and after ejection, about nine minutes full.

Dodger broadcaster Vin Scully hammered the point home with his usual unadorned aplomb: We have all this technology and they don't use it because they say it would delay the game. Well, what was that we just saw?

Game, set, and match. The human element isn't going anywhere. Fielders will still bobble balls or throw should-be double play balls three rows or more into the seats. Pitchers will still throw the wrong pitch. Catchers will still fail to get away with "framing" borderline pitches. Hitters will still try hitting 6-run homers and making egregious outs. There'll still be bench clearing brawls now and then over knockdowns, brushbacks, dome balls, and home run pimping; there'll still be players here and there appointing themselves field nannies enforcing the "unwritten" rules.

And umpires will still be only human. But getting it right when pennant races or championships turn is as right as mere humans and the technologies humans create can get.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 3:57 PM | Comments (0)

November 14, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 11

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (+3)

The Colts found themselves in a 28-0 hole to the Rams last week and eventually lost 38-8 at home. Andrew Luck threw 3 interceptions and Indy fell to 6-3.

"I was sacked three times and hit another seven," Luck said. "There's no 'incognito' in our offensive line, because they just got exposed."

The home-standing Titans were upset as well, losing to the winless Jaguars 29-27 in Tennessee. Jake Locker was lost for the year with a broken foot; Ryan Fitzpatrick will start on Thursday.

"Jake's suffered his share of injuries," Mike Munchak said. "And when he hurts, we all hurt, including me, because it pains me to say that our season rides on the back of Fitzpatrick.

"Ryan brings a Harvard education to the lineup. He's got a degree, but no pedigree. He reportedly scored 48 out of 50 on the Wonderlic test. At least in test-taking, he's good at passing."

The Colts come out with a purpose, that being to dismantle the Titans and solidify control of the South. Indy's defense puts them on the board first with an interception return for a touchdown. Luck throws two touchdowns the rest of the way.

Colts win, 27-16.

NY Jets @ Buffalo (even)

The Bills were whipped 23-10 by the Steelers in E.J. Manuel's first game back since suffering a knee injury in Week 5.

"As one would expect," Doug Marrone said, "Manuel was a little rusty against the Steelers. Of course, any scientist worth his salt would tell you that steel doesn't rust, iron does. What does that have to do with football? Nothing, but it's got everything to do with chemistry. And if nothing else, this team has chemistry. Just to clarify, that's no admission of PED use. Shawne Merriman's long gone. "

New York returns from a bye week with designs on chasing down the 7-2 Patriots in the AFC East. The 5-4 Jets' quest begins in Buffalo, where the Bills are 2-3, including a win over the 6-3 Panthers.

"Indeed," Rex Ryan said. "The Bills are unpredictable, except in Super Bowls.

"Much like the Bills," Rex Ryan said, "we have a dynamic, young quarterback, Geno Smith. When he's good, he's good. When he's bad, he's still better than Mark Sanchez. Sanchez played at USC; that makes him a former Trojan. Often, just for kicks, we'll call Mark by his Greek name, 'Erroneous.'"

"The bye week did us a lot of good. Santonio Holmes and Kellen Winslow are both set to return. They're both 'receivers,' but only one is a 'supplier.'"

New York wins, 23-17.

Baltimore @ Chicago (-3)

The Bears lost to the Lions 21-19 last week at home, falling out of a first-place tie in the NFC North. Jay Cutler returned from a groin injury and was still clearly troubled by the discomfort, and later left the game with an ankle injury.

"Jay's got a high ankle sprain," Mark Trestman said, "and he's out for the Ravens game. In addition, Charles Tillman has been placed on injured reserve with a torn triceps. Charles has battled a number of injuries this year; that's why they call him 'Peanut Brittle.'"

The Ravens built a 17-0 lead in the second quarter and didn't score again until overtime, beating the Bengals 20-17 on Justin Tucker's 46-yard field goal. Baltimore, now 4-5, pulled to within a game of the division-leading Bengals in the AFC North.

"We certainly were not playing like Super Bowl champions," John Harbaugh said. "Some say we were 'choking.' That's not true, although I would like to strangle some of my players.

"Hopefully, Joe Flacco can step up his game. Our fortunes lie with Flacco. By that, I mean we've got $100 million invested in him. Joe's apparently running his own offense—I believe it's called a 'Pyramid Scheme.'"

Chicago wins, 20-19.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-5½)

The Browns visit Paul Brown Stadium in a game with important AFC North implications. At 4-5, Cleveland is right in the middle of the race.

"The Bengals have a chant that goes 'Who dey?'" Brandon Weeden said. "We Browns have our own chant in response to that. It's called 'What da?' As in 'What da heck are the Bengals doing leading the division?"

The Bengals fell behind early in Baltimore, eventually losing 20-17 as the AFC North race tightened considerably. At 6-5, Cincy leads the Ravens and Browns by only one game in the loss column.

"Heck of a job by our defense," Marvin Lewis said. "But I can't pin blame on our offense. They're innocent, because they did nothing.

"The division is up for grabs, much like most of Andy Dalton's passes. Andy's an enigma. How else can you explain a 5-touchdown game followed by a 3-interception game? Sometimes, Andy plays like a 'ginger,' because he's easily 'red.'"

Cincinnati wins, 16-14.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-3½)

The Redskins let a 27-14 lead at Minnesota evaporate in a 34-27 loss to the Vikings. Robert Griffin III threw for three touchdowns, but was sacked 4 times as Washington fell to 3-6.

"We obviously have issues everywhere," Mike Shanahan said. "We can't stop the run, the pass, or the bleeding. Most people have a problem calling us 'Redskins;' I think all people would have a problem calling us 'division champs.'

"But in the NFC East, it's not over until it's over. I could see tiebreakers deciding the division. It's like they said at the start of the season, 'Let's get this parity started."

The Eagles, behind another big day from Nick Foles, bested the Packers at Lambeau Field 27-13. Foles, who threw 7 TD passes in Week 9, threw three more against the Packers.

"I think I've done more than enough to earn the starting job," Foles said. "I'd be really upset if Chip Kelly doesn't give me the nod. I'd be so upset, I'd probably go home and lock myself in my room. That would be called 'house arrest,' which, as history shows, may very well be the secret to acquiring the job."

Many say defense will decide this game. That can't be true. How can defense decide this game when it won't even be there.

Washington wins, 29-27.

Detroit @ Pittsburgh (+1)

One week after surrendering 55 points to the Patriots, the Steelers limited the Bills to 10 in a 23-10 Pittsburgh win.

"I was proud of our defense," Mike Tomlin said. "Sure they're old, but they still have a little life left in them. They're certainly not the NFL's best defense. They're like a good college defense, because they're 'senior-laden.'

The Lions beat the Bears 21-19 and are now alone atop the NFC North with a 6-2 record.

"That's right," Matthew Stafford said. "We have 'sole possession.' That's opposed to 'soul possession,' which is what black players in Miami say Richie Incognito has.

"But we don't tolerate players like Incognito here. We don't have any problem at all with teammates being bullied. Opponents? That's a different story. Ndamukong Suh has bullied players all over the league, and all over their bodies."

The Steelers get an inspired effort from their defense, but in the end, they can't stop Megatron, who catches two short TD passes.

Detroit wins, 27-20.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (+1)

The Buccaneers won for the first time, beating the distracted Dolphins 22-19 last Monday behind a solid defense and an offense that produced 140 yards on the ground. Tampa will try to make it two in a row when the 2-8 Falcons visit Raymond James Stadium.

"All the talk lately about 'locker room culture' has been centered on the Dolphins," Greg Schiano said. "But don't forget, we started it in Tampa. Laboratory tests revealed that the 'locker room culture' was, in fact, MRSA.

"Doug Martin is already on injured reserve, and we lost Mike James for the season to an ankle injury. But Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey filled in nicely. They have to be the NFL's best 'role' players not named Antrel."

In a rematch of last year's NFC divisional playoff game, the Seahawks turned the tables and hammered the Falcons 33-10 in Atlanta. Atlanta is now 2-7 and already thinking about next season.

"That's seven losses," Mike Smith said. "We're putting the 'L' in 'A-T-L.' We had 14 wins last year. I guess we also put the 'W' in 'H-O-W?'"

Tampa wins, 27-24.

Arizona @ Jacksonville (+7)

The Jaguars stunned the Titans 29-27 in Tennessee, winning for the first time this season. Despite gaining only 214 yards of total offense, Jacksonville persevered, giving Gus Bradley his first win as an NFL head coach.

"We did just enough to win," Bradley said. "We're doing anything but kicking ass. And speaking of 'kicking ass,' I showed my team the inspirational Disney movie Gus about a field-goal kicking donkey. Obviously, it had an effect on them."

The Cardinals returned from a bye week with a 27-24 win over Houston, sending the Texans to their seventh-straight defeat. Arizona improved to 5-4, good for third in the NFC West.

"And first in the NFC East," Bruce Arians said. "I'm sure if we played in the East, we'd dominate. Here's an interesting fact: when you travel West to East, you lose three hours, but you can gain three wins."

Arizona wins, 24-16.

Oakland @ Houston (-7)

The Texans lost their seventh consecutive game, falling 27-24 in Arizona. There was more bad news in Houston. In the wake of Gary Kubiak's minor stroke on November 3rd, Arian Foster is out for the season after undergoing surgery to treat a bulging disc in his back.

"It's been a tough year for us," said interim head coach Wade Phillips. "No one's more disappointed than former Presidents and Texas natives George H.W. Busch and George W. Busch. But does Obama care? I doubt it.

"Anyway, if Kubiak can't make it on Sunday, he's given me free reign to manage the game. Sure, he's got his way of coaching, and so do I. But he said if I like my plan, I can keep my plan."

The Raiders lost to the Giants 24-20 at MetLife Stadium and are now 3-6.

"My regards to Coach Kubiak," Dennis Allen said. "The rigors of coaching can be tough, but I feel great. I don't feel faint or dizzy at all. If I did, I would probably expect to wake up in Sebastian Janikowski's bedroom."

J.J. Watt continues to dominate, recording 3 sacks and a forced fumble. After a 31-14 Texans' victory, Watt is given the game ball, and the title of "interim quarterback."

San Diego @ Miami (+1)

The Chargers lost 28-20 in Denver last week, unable to stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos' aerial attack. Manning threw four TD passes, including three to Demaryius Thomas.

"It's time to regroup," Mike McCoy said. "I'm sure that's not the first time that's been said in Miami.

"Thank goodness we don't have a problem like this in San Diego. If we did, I'm sure we'd handle it better. If I had to grade the Dolphins organization on their response, I'd give them a 'cluster F.'"

The Dolphins lost to the winless Buccaneers 22-19 last Monday night. With Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin out, the 'Fins' rushing attack suffered, with only two yards on the ground.

"Just like that," Joe Philbin said, "the left side of our offensive line disappeared. Ryan Tannehill wasn't happy, and he let me know it. He's a graduate of Texas A&M, so he informed me of his feelings in an obscene 'Tex' message.

"Richie's career as a football player may be done. But as a white man with ghetto street credibility, I'm sure he'll find a place, probably in the next Chappelle's Show 'Racial Draft.'"

Miami wins, 28-24.

San Francisco @ New Orleans (-3)

The 49ers were limited to 151 total yards and were upset by the visiting Panthers 10-9 last week. Colin Kaepernick was ineffective, with only 107 yards of total offense.

"There was a time," Jim Harbaugh said, "when opposing defenses had no answer for Kaepernick. Now, almost all have an answer, and the answer is 'No.'"

The Saints piled up 625 yards of offense and an NFL record 40 first downs in a 49-17 dismantling of the Cowboys at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last Sunday night. Drew Brees passed for 392 yards and 4 touchdowns as New Orleans held on to a one-game lead over the Panthers in the NFC South.

"It looks like Dallas' 'Doomsday Defense' is back," Brees said, "because when you give up 40 first downs and 625 yards, it certainly looks like the end of the world. The Cowboys are on a bye week. If they're lucky, it will be a 'bye' week for defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, too."

Frank Gore and Kaepernick combine for 150 yards on the ground, and the 49ers pull the upset, 26-23.

Green Bay @ NY Giants (-6)

Green Bay's quarterback situation took another hit in last Sunday's 27-13 loss to the Eagles last week. Already without Aaron Rodgers, backup Seneca Wallace injured his groin early in the game. Scott Tolzien took over and will start on Sunday against the Giants.

"Tolzien's our man," Mike McCarthy said. "You know, despite his nickname of 'J.R.R.,' Scott's got no value in the fantasy world.

"But you never know where this may lead. Brett Favre started his amazing streak after taking over for the injured Don Majkowski. Am I saying Scott Tolzien is Brett Favre? I hope so. Am I saying that Aaron Rodgers is Don Majkowski? I hope not."

The Giants overcame 3 turnovers and won for the third-straight time, beating the visiting Raiders 24-20. New York is 3-6, behind the 5-5 Cowboys and Eagles in the NFC East.

"I was looking forward to playing against Rodgers. But I guess he's not playing, or so says this New York Post headline that reads 'Nay-Rod,' which could very well be a story about another Alex Rodriguez denial.

"In any case, we have to prepare for Scott Tolzien. But I'm already prepared, because I was already expecting to be the second-best quarterback on the field."

New York wins, 27-17.

Minnesota @ Seattle (-14)

The Vikings charged back from a 13-point halftime deficit to beat the Redskins 34-24 last Thursday. Their task is a much tougher one this Sunday, as they travel to Seattle to face the 9-1 Seahawks.

"Christian Ponder is recovering from a separated left shoulder that he suffered against the Redskins," Leslie Frazier said. "That's his non-throwing arm, or, as some call it, his good arm."

Seattle hammered the Falcons 33-10 in Atlanta last week and appear on their way to earning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"We've got one thing in common with the Vikings," Pete Carroll said. "Percy Harvin hasn't played a game for either of us this year.

Seattle wins, 34-13.

Kansas City @ Denver (-7½)

The Chiefs and Broncos square off with the AFC West division lead on the line. The undefeated Chiefs lead the way, but a win by the 8-1 Broncos would give them the tiebreaker edge. Denver tuned up for the showdown with a 28-20 win over San Diego. Peyton Manning threw 4 TD passes, but took some hits that left him sore.

"We've got to do a better job in our protections," Manning said. "Every time I take a hit, everybody's heart skips a beat.

"The next three weeks could define our season. We'll face the Chiefs the week of Thanksgiving, which also happens to be the week of Black Friday. And that leads me to 'Black Saturday,' which is what players in Indianapolis called my former center with ghetto credibility."

The Chiefs are rested and ready for the challenge Manning and the Broncos present. They'll have to put pressure on Manning, which may be easier with his mobility hindered by a high ankle sprain.

"We'll have to be at our best," Andy Reid said. "We haven't faced anything like the Broncos this season, that being a team with a winning record.

"Dwayne Bowe will play despite being arrested for speeding and marijuana possession."

Manning limps off the field in the second quarter after a sack, and sits the remainder of the game. Backup Brock Osweiler takes over, and the Broncos immediately stink it up, because they've got "B.O."

Kansas City wins, 27-25.

New England @ Carolina (-2½)

If the Panthers weren't considered Super Bowl contenders, they are after last week's huge 10-9 win over the 49ers in San Francisco.

"As statement games go," Cam Newton said, "we filibustered that one.

"I admire Tom Brady. Someday I hope to have as many Super Bowl rings as him. Right now, I have none, which is three fewer than Brady, and one less than Vladimir Putin."

The Patriots are back after a bye week following a 55-28 win over the Steelers, an outburst which may indicate that Brady and the New England attack are peaking.

"We famously met the Panthers in Super Bowl 38," Tom Brady said. "That may have been Jake Delhomme's finest moment as a professional. Jake's like a god in Charlotte. In fact, people speak of him and God a lot, often in the same sentence.

"I don't have the physical gifts that Newton possesses. 'Physical gifts' aren't what got me to the University Of Michigan, but 'physical gifts' are definitely what got Newton to Auburn."

It's a huge Monday night game, probably the biggest in Charlotte in years. Fans are tailgating in record numbers. There's red meat and any and all varieties of alcoholic beverages. In Panthers country, they call that "junk in the trunk."

The Bank of America Stadium crowd is raucous, but Brady silences them along with Rob Gronkowski, whose popularity is still rising in the Northeast, but dropping considerably in the Far East.

Patriots win, 23-19.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:12 AM | Comments (1)

November 13, 2013

NFL Picks For Week 11

I'm seeing a lot of strange lines this week, which has compelled me to write this column. Of course, if you're really looking to Sports Central for NFL Picks, then I would encourage you (including this week) to rely on the estimable Jeffrey Boswell, who forecasts every game each week and has forgotten more about football than I will ever know. My pick is capitalized.

COLTS (-3) at Titans

Both these teams are coming off insanely embarrassing losses, but at least the Colts can, with some plausibility, call theirs an isolated incident. Not so for the reeling Titans, and the Colts are just more talented. They are the pick.

Falcons(-1.5) at BUCCANEERS

Well, this line seems about right. I'm a Bucs fan and thrilled to see them get into the win column last week, and these two teams probably are two of the three worst teams in the NFL right now, and the Bucs have a bit of momentum after nearly knocking off the Seahawks on the road and finally picking up the W last week. This game could go either way, so I will pick the team that's a bit, using an extremely relative term here, hotter.

JETS (+1.5) at Bills

First off, don't ever bet money at any point in 2013 on a game involving the Jets, they are too schizophrenic. They lose to bad teams and beat good teams. If that holds, then yes, the Bills should win. But I have to think that a team such as the Jets, rookie quarterback and all, is going to figure out how to start beating the bad teams before they start losing to good ones.

LIONS (-1.5) at Steelers

The Lions are clearly the better team and are coming off a hugely important road win. The Steelers have struggled and it's hard to see beating the Bills 23-10 at home as anything more than holding serve. I like the Lions big in this one.

REDSKINS (+3.5) at Eagles

The Redskins seem to sort of play to the level of their opponents. In the last three weeks, they led the Broncos in Denver going into the fourth quarter, beat the Chargers, and lost to the Vikings. I realize how sexy the Eagles are right now, but the win over Green Bay earns kind of an asterisk with the Pack missing Aaron Rodgers. The bottom line is, after their horrible starts, I remain unsold on the Eagles even after these last two weeks, these NFC East matchups tend to go either way, and the Redskins are more rested; never a small thing when your quarterback is Robert Griffin III.

RAVENS (+3) at Bears

This is a momentum pick for me. The Ravens resurgence looks more sustained, and sustainable, than the Eagles and Giants. The Bears are coming off a tough loss at home after beating the Packers at Lambeau the week prior.

Browns (+5.5) at BENGALS

Cleveland should consider it a win that they are picked by Vegas to be within a touchdown of the prohibitive division favorites on the road. While the Bengals have been devastated by injuries on defense, I still think there's a talent gap between the Bengals and the Browns that is more than 5 1/2 points in Cincinnati.

RAIDERS (+7) at Texans

So the 2-7 Texans, who have lost seven in a row, are the third largest favorites this week. Doubtlessly this is because their top-ranked D is going up against the Raiders bottom-ranked O, but that has gotten them the same amount of covers against the spread this year as it has actual wins. The Raiders are 5-3-1 against the spread (a team's record against the spread is important in measuring how a team has done against expectations) and have a decent defense of their own against a rookie quarterback. This spread, like the rent in New York, is too damn high.

CARDINALS (-6.5) at Jaguars

Arizona has quietly been putting together a good season, and there's no reason to think it will be sidetracked against the Jags. Props for winning on the road last week, Jacksonville, but I do not think you have improved enough to get within a touchdown of a team with a winning record.

CHARGERS (-1.5) at Dolphins

The Dolphins just lost to the lowly Bucs, have a short week, and until they put this Martin/Incognito mess behind them and win a game (I know they beat the Bengals the week prior, but this issue hadn't reached critical mass yet) you'd be nuts to put any money on them.

Vikings (+13.5) at SEAHAWKS

This is one of those lines where Vegas says, "This is gonna be a blowout, but we're not really willing to set lines higher than this, and when we do, like Broncos by 28.5 over Jacksonville, it doesn't work out." This is gonna be a blowout.

49ers (+3) at SAINTS

Why the hell is this line only three points? Did the Niners not just lose at home? Has Colin Kaepernick not looked horrible this year? Are the Saints not at home? Are they not coming off a face-stomping win against a likely division winner? I do not understand this line at all.

PACKERS (+6) over Giants

I know these two teams are headed in opposite directions. I know that Green Bay just lost by two touchdowns at home to the Giants-esque Eagles. I know these things. I just can't bring myself to pick a team led by 2013 Eli Manning to beat a 5-4 team, Aaron Rodgers' injury be damned, by 6 or more.

Chiefs (+8) at BRONCOS

This line seems about right. I'm guessing Manning will play and quiet the doubters about his ankle, and doubts about the Chiefs are legitimate, with too many close wins over bad teams playing their backup QB.

Patriots (+2.5) at PANTHERS

Now this here is a great and intriguing game, maybe ever more so than Chiefs/Broncos. It's possible the Panthers will be hung over after their big win in San Francisco, but they have two things to help ameliorate that possibility. One is, they are at home, and two is, they have a chance to not just repeat the statement they made last week, but do it on Monday Night Football and national television.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 1:59 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 35

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson started on the pole and finished third in the AdvoCare 500, well ahead of Matt Kenseth, who struggled and finished 23rd. Johnson has a 28-point lead heading into Homestead, and needs only a finish of 23rd or better to clinch the Cup.

"Anything can happen at Homestead," Johnson said. "But I'd prefer that nothing happen.

"I'm close to my sixth Cup title, which would place me only one behind Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt. My goal is to be mentioned in the same sentence with 'The King' and 'The Intimidator,' and I don't see anything stopping me, except a cool nickname."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 23rd on a disastrous day at Phoenix, handicapped by a car that proved unresponsive to adjustments. He started the day seven points behind Jimmie Johnson, and finished in a 28-point hole.

"I won my first Cup championship ten years ago," Kenseth said. "Likewise, my second Cup championship is history, also."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick won at Phoenix, recording his fourth win of the year in his next-to-last race with Richard Childress Racing. He is third in the points standings, 34 out of first.

"This may be my last victory burnout," Harvick said. "And speaking of 'burnout,' I am so ready to leave RCR. When you combine nepotism with narcissism, you get RCR. There's no 'I' in team, and trust me, there's no 'me' in that team."

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt continued his strong finish to the Chase with a fourth in the Advocare 500, his fourth-consecutive top 10 and seventh of the Chase. He is fifth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 63 out of first.

"It's important to build momentum for next year," Earnhardt said. "And we have. So, contrary to the fans of Junior Nation, who have a habit of saying 'Wait 'til next year,' I can't wait 'til next year."

5. Jeff Gordon — Gordon bounced back from a difficult Sunday at Texas with a solid 14th at Phoenix. He is sixth in the points standings, 80 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Jimmie Johnson may be leading the points," Gordon said, "but I'm looking over my shoulder, as well. Is Clint Bowyer behind me?"

6. Kyle Busch — Busch finished seventh in the AdvoCare 500, posting his 21st top-10 result of the year. He is currently fourth in the points standings, 57 out of first.

"On a more positive note," Busch said, "I won my 12th Nationwide race of the season on Saturday. My civilian driving record says I'm not a 'Sunday driver,' and, apparently, so does my Sprint Cup driving record."

7. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski led 27 laps and finished 12th in the AdvoCare 500.

"Sadly, this just wasn't the year for the No. 2 Miller Lite Ford," Keselowski said. "Thus, my championship reign is ending at one year. It seems it was '2' time only one time."

8. Greg Biffle — Biffle took 13th at Phoenix on a day when Jimmie Johnson all but clinched the Sprint Cup championship. Biffle is now seventh in the points standings, 83 out of first.

"I plan to confront Johnson again," Biffle said, "and ask him, 'What's your problem?' If he responds, 'I got 99 problems, but a 'Biff' ain't one,' then he's officially the greatest driver of all-time."

9. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished 20th at Phoenix, another disappointing result in the Chase For the Cup. Bowyer has only two top-five finishes in the Chase.

"The race was called the 'AdvoCare 500,'" Bowyer said, "but not by everyone. To me, it was the 'I Don't Care 500.'"

10. Joey Logano — Logano scored another top-10 finish with a ninth at Phoenix. He is ninth in the points standings, 97 out of first.

"I almost took out Jimmie Johnson on the first lap," Logano said. "But I didn't, and that's too bad, because I really wanted to have an impact on the Chase."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:00 PM | Comments (0)

November 12, 2013

Martin, Incognito, and Locker Room Culture

We're still learning about the Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito saga in Miami. It's a strange story, with information coming to light gradually, slowly. It's a sports story that affects a team with playoff aspirations, and it's a gossip story with betrayal, hurt feelings, and shocking language. No surprise, it's drawing more and more attention.

Most of you already know the basics, but for those who don't: Martin, a second-year offensive lineman from Stanford, left the Miami Dolphins in late October. He cited emotional issues, then retained a lawyer who has handled the public situation since. Most notably, Martin's lawyer released a voicemail from fellow Dolphin Richie Incognito, which crosses numerous boundaries of good taste, including a racial slur and a death threat. Incognito acknowledges leaving the message, but calls it a joke. The team has suspended him, but multiple Dolphin players have publicly supported Incognito and called him a team leader.

It was interesting to observe the different positions CBS, FOX, and NBC took in addressing the situation this weekend. At CBS, the tone was sorrow, disappointment, and disapproval. Boomer Esiason recommended a wait-and-see approach as more facts emerge, but the lasting memory was Shannon Sharpe's impassioned decrying of a locker room culture that accepts Incognito's use of racial epithets. Studio guests London Fletcher, Jon Jansen, and Bart Scott all shot down the idea that Incognito's behavior is consistent with a normal locker room culture. Fletcher, himself a respected team leader, mentioned that he's played on three teams and never encountered the atmosphere that apparently exists in Miami.

The reaction at NBC (from Tony Dungy, Scott Pioli, and Rodney Harrison) was similar, but it was interesting to get perspective from a coach and general manager. Dungy, like Bill Cowher on the CBS pregame, spoke about creating a positive culture in which teammates support each other. All three were skeptical of blaming Miami head coach Joe Philbin and his staff. Harrison described levels of responsibility: if a problem arises, you try to solve it man-to-man, and team leaders get involved if they notice an issue. Only if players are unable to resolve the situation do they go to the coaches. Dungy echoed that idea, saying that if players didn't come to him with a problem, he assumed there was no problem. He cited Derrick Brooks, Jeff Saturday, and Reggie Wayne as team leaders who helped keep the locker room in order.

Pioli brought up Incognito's reputation as a trouble-maker, going back to his college days. Even most Husker fans don't remember Incognito fondly. During his time at Nebraska, Incognito underwent anger management treatment, got convicted of assault, and was ultimately kicked off the team. He transferred to Oregon and was dismissed before ever appearing in a game. Incognito's self-control issues continued in the NFL, both on and off the field. Pioli said that no team should put a player like Incognito into a leadership role, and that's tough to argue with. You only bring in guys with attitude problems and other issues if you have a team culture that keeps people in line and solves issues in-house.

Perhaps the most interesting perspective was offered by FOX. It's easy to treat Incognito as a bully and Martin as a victim. That's a safe, uncontroversial position to take. But FOX gave Incognito a public platform, airing an interview with Jay Glazer, and Terry Bradshaw spoke about a "Guilty Until Proven Innocent" approach that we've applied to this (and many other) situations. Here, we got Incognito's side of the story. He gave Glazer his phone, and Glazer found over 1,000 texts between Martin and Incognito, including a recent text from Martin that diverted blame from Incognito. Jimmy Johnson was particularly skeptical of Martin's position, wondering if this wasn't a reaction to on-field struggles, diminished playing time, and concern about his NFL future.

On a Monday radio show, the hosts dismissed Glazer's interview as a softball with no follow-up questions. Former Pro Bowl tight end Chris Cooley wondered about Incognito saying he was Martin's best friend on the team, an idea echoed by Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill. That doesn't make me think these two were close; it makes me wonder if Martin had any real friends on the Dolphins. The biggest issue, though, was the two big questions Jay Glazer never asked. If Incognito and Martin are buddies, and if this is all a misunderstanding, why is Incognito suspended by the team, and why hasn't Martin come back?

It's hard to judge a story like this because there's still so much we don't know. Most significantly, we haven't heard directly from Jonathan Martin. For now, my feeling is this ... the Dolphins blew it. If you sign a guy like Richie Incognito, you need to keep an eye on him, not put him in a leadership position. When you take someone with a long history of abusive behavior and give him authority, you let him dictate the atmosphere. It sounds like the Dolphins' locker room culture straddles a thin line between camaraderie and cruelty.

Friendly give-and-take is a normal part of sports culture. You make fun of the bald guy for being bald, you poke the dude who needs to lose a few pounds, you joke about the gap in Michael Strahan's teeth. That's normal. But when a guy doesn't think it's funny, you stop. If the heavy dude is sick and tired of fat jokes and people poking his gut, those things need to stop happening. In Miami, that didn't happen. Incognito acknowledged that in his interview with Glazer, but he shifted the blame toward Martin: why didn't he tell me he was hurting? There's something to that, but it goes against everything we've been told about Miami's locker room culture, especially the subset among those crazy o-linemen.

There are generally two kinds of sensitive people: those who become angry, and those who feel hurt. The angry guys probably fit in with the Dolphins okay, because it sounds like expressing anger and aggression was encouraged in that environment. Besides, if a guy gets really angry, you're going to know about it. But what about a player who feels hurt, who gets sad or depressed? If you create an atmosphere founded on abusive behavior, the sensitive guy who wants to fit in will do his best, so there will be plenty of situations in which he called people names or made inappropriate jokes. Some of those times he probably even enjoyed, because he felt like he was being accepted.

But a hostile, aggressive environment isn't for everyone, and after a while it wears you down. It seems to me that the Dolphins created a culture in which people didn't know when to stop and didn't understand which lines not to cross, and in which players felt like they couldn't ask for help. In macho environments, asking for help can be a sign of weakness that only invites more abuse.

I know some fans, and some players, will defend that kind of environment: if you can't take a few jokes, how can you be tough enough for the NFL? If you flip out during practice when a guy insults you, how can you handle a game situation with opponents talking about your mother? But there's a huge difference between trash-talk from opponents and abuse from people who are supposed to be on your side. I've been around sports my whole life, and I've never seen an athlete who performed better when he was mad at his teammates, or felt like they didn't support him. I've never seen someone up his game when it's the home fans booing. Trash talk and hostile road stadiums can fire you up, but negative reinforcement from your own team never leads to success.

Some degree of rookie hazing happens on every team. Carry the veteran's pads, stand on the table and sing your college fight song, stuff like that. It's not fun, but it's not abuse. Reports are that the Dolphins' rookie hazing went well beyond that, including a $30,000 restaurant bill that Martin had to pay for his teammates. When a prank costs $30 grand, it stops being funny, I think. But it just doesn't seem like the Dolphins have anyone steering the ship. The inmates are running the asylum (and I'm mixing my metaphors). Richie Incognito is charismatic, and he's a good player, but you can't let a guy like that dictate the atmosphere on your team.

There's a lot we still don't know about the situation in Miami. But no one disputes that Incognito used racial slurs and left a voice message most people would consider dramatically over the line. No one disagrees that the Dolphin linemen played mean pranks on Martin, like calling him over to their table and then leaving as soon as he sat down. If being mean is an essential aspect of your locker room culture, that culture needs to change. If you engage with teammates largely through insults and aggression, you're not creating an environment that makes people feel good. If most of your jokes are at someone's expense, you're not supporting each other.

Dolphins players have spoken out almost unanimously in support of Incognito, but no team needs that kind of leadership. It sounds like the locker room culture is warped and twisted: an atmosphere in which bullying is tolerated — maybe even expected — and players don't feel like they can ask for help. There's a problem on that team that goes beyond Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:57 PM | Comments (1)

November 11, 2013

Pacers: The New Favorites?

In each of the last two seasons, the Indiana Pacers have come extremely close to playing in the NBA Finals. In 2012, the Pacers had a 2-1 lead over Miami and a Game 4 halftime lead at home before going down in six games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. A shock Indiana win in that series would have matched up the Pacers with a hobbled Celtics team being carried by Rajon Rondo.

Last season, Indiana took the Heat to the brink of elimination in the Conference Finals, and frankly should have had a 2-0 series lead early, before falling in a lopsided Game 7.

Yet, as an NBA fan, I have to honestly say that at no time in each of those long series did I truly believe that the Pacers' brand of basketball would end up being victorious over Miami. And I don't think I'm alone in that sentiment.

Sure, there were times when Dwyane Wade looked absent, the Pacers dominated the glass and when Indiana slowed the tempo that the Pacers looked like a threat. But to predict that Frank Vogel's bunch would take down Miami? Absolutely not.

Fast forward to the 2013 offseason, and the beginning of the 2013-14 season and the message the Pacers have sent so far says, "We're coming for the title, and it's our year."

Yes, the NBA is just a couple weeks into the season. No team has even played more than a tenth of its 82 games as of yet. So any outlandish or incredible statistics in this piece can be attached with sample-size caveats.

That being said, in today's small ball and perimeter hand-check foul NBA, it is virtually impossible to play team defense any better than the Pacers have through seven games. Currently, Indiana is giving up 92.3 points per 100 possessions. If maintained through an entire season, that number would make the Pacers the best defense of the 21st century — even better than any totals put up before the hand-check rules were emphasized before the 2005-06 season. Several seasons in those last eight years have seen no team under the 100 points per 100 possessions mark.

Of course, Frank Vogel's Pacers have featured defense as a calling card, ever since the former assistant took over a 17-27 team from Jim O'Brien midway through the 2010-11 season and led them to a playoff berth. The issues for Indiana since that point have been scoring enough points, finding a go-to guy and quality off the bench.

The issue of scoring enough points will remain a criticism for Indiana until it makes the hurdle of beating Miami in the playoffs. Even in outscoring opponents by 9.6 points per game (more than double the next best point differential in the league) during the 7-0 start as of Saturday night, the Pacers have an offensive rating of 102.6 points per 100 possessions, which is slightly below the league average.

However, the other two problems may be things of the past. During last season, George emerged as the Pacers' star player in an all-star and all-NBA campaign. His defense and athleticism shined, but his offense, while explosive at times, left something to be desired. In 2012-13, George shot 42 percent from the field, and had a less-than-desirable turnover percentage. Through this young season, he's shooting about 47 percent, has upped his three-point percentage to nearly 43 percent and turns it over on 5 fewer percent of possessions. Those numbers keep up, and it's George, not LeBron or Durant, who will be the MVP.

The Pacers' bench looks like it's been upgraded, as well. In getting rid of the often-inconsistent duo of Tyler Hansbrough and D.J. Augustin, Indiana now has Luis Scola and C.J. Watson. Scola can still score at a nice rate, and gives the Pacers much-needed offense down low when David West has to rest. Watson will never show the flash Augustin good, but he's a decent backup point guard that fits in well with the Pacers' team identity.

The elephant in the room for the Pacers' is clearly what will become of Danny Granger. On the eve of the regular season, it was announced that Granger would miss three weeks with a calf injury. Now, reports are surfacing that Granger is experiencing soreness in the left knee that made him a spectator for essentially the whole season a year ago.

The million-dollar question (or $14 million, in the case of his expiring contract) is whether or not the Pacers will trade him once he returns. Of course, the package Larry Bird can attain depends on how Granger fares once he returns. If he shows anything close to the same kind of ability that he did before the injury, Indiana could be that much more explosive on the perimeter with another quality bench player.

Before the season, the assumption was that Chicago, with the return of Derrick Rose, would be Miami's main competition in the East. But with Rose struggling more than he has at any point in his career this season, Indiana may not just be the main competition for Miami, it may be the team to beat in the East and in the entire NBA.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 2:56 PM | Comments (0)

Bold Predictions For 2014 March Madness

The college basketball season is underway and so far there have been few surprises. There are some familiar names in the preseason rankings. Indeed, it is a veritable who's who of college basketball. The AP top 10 boasts the following schools with a listing of accolades, recent history, commentary, and a bold prediction for 2013-14.

1. Kentucky

8 National Championships, most recently 2012
15 Final Fours, most recently 2012
Last season: Lost in the first round of the NIT to Robert Morris

You know the world of college basketball has changed when a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament last season is ranked number one in this year's preseason. The 2012-13 Kentucky Wildcats were the biggest bust perhaps in all of NCAA history. The ACL injury to Nerlens Noel was likely the biggest factor in the difficulties of last season, but how can a team like Kentucky lose to Robert Morris in the NIT. It's just embarrassing. Wildcat fans hope they can sandwich that terrible season with two national championships. I personally find that rather unlikely.

The issue with programs like Kentucky playing all top freshman recruits year after year is the unlikelihood of recruiting the talent needed, along with players who have any sort of team mentality. In 2011-12, it worked. In 2012-13, it blew up in an embarrassing catastrophe of terribleness. It is high risk, high reward or high embarrassment business for programs like Kentucky.

Twin brothers Andrew and Aaron Harrison will certainly play well together, but such a strong bond between two players can create awkwardness with the rest of the team. If you want to keep your eyes on a freshman, look at Julius Randle. In his first game, Randle had 23 points and 15 rebounds in only 26 minutes of work.

I think the Wildcats will be in the top two teams in the SEC and enter the NCAA tournament as a three or a four seed. Sweet 16 — yes. Beyond that — no.

2. Michigan State

2 National Championships, most recently 2000
8 Final Fours, most recently 2010
Last season: Lost to Duke in the regional semifinal

In stark contrast to Kentucky's freshmen-driven philosophy stands Tom Izzo and Michigan State. The Spartans' 2013-14 roster boasts only three freshmen, none of which will likely be a major factor for Michigan State this season. The old school philosophy provides a bit more stability year in and year out, but I think the most attractive part of recruiting players who will stay for more than one year is the relief of pressure in recruiting. Programs like Kentucky have to recruit five to eight of the best freshmen in the country who are ready to play top level basketball right now in order to compete. Michigan State has to recruit two to five guys who can take a year or two to mature and gain skills and experience.

Michigan State is to college basketball what the San Antonio Spurs are to the NBA. Consistently doing things the right way leads to annual success and championships from time to time. It has been a few years for the Spartans, but there are a lot more college basketball teams than NBA teams. I expect Izzo to continue the solidness with another Final Four year, but I think they'll have trouble winning it all in 2014. Oh, and the deadline for this article is a bit unfortunate as I had to submit before Kentucky hosted Michigan State Tuesday evening. What a great early season matchup!

3. Louisville

3 National Championships, most recently 2013
10 Final Fours, most recent 2013
Last Season: Defeated Michigan in the National Championship Game

Winning their first title in over 25 years had to feel good for the Cardinals. The 2012-13 Cardinals were a well-balanced team, but two of their top three players from last year are now in the NBA — Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng. The Cardinals leading scorer from last year, Russ Smith, looks like he is ready to lead the team once again, and freshman Mangok Mathiang looks to be the heir apparent to Dieng as shot blocker and gobbler of all rebounds, and the rest of the team looks typically balanced.

The one concern for the Cardinals might be that last season they rode a wave of emotion to the championship following the horrific leg break of Kevin Ware in the Regional Final against Duke. It is also worth noting that on their way to the championship, Louisville played a 16 seed, two 8 seeds, a 4 seed, and two 3 seeds. I'm not saying that they weren't challenged, but winning a championship without playing a one or a two seed is rare. I doubt they'll be able to have such an easy road two years in a row.

I'll give Louisville a pass to the Elite Eight, but not the Final Four.

4. Duke

4 National Championships, most recently 2010
15 Final Fours, most recently 2010
Last Season: Lost to Louisville in the Regional Final

Another huge Tuesday night matchup is Duke vs. Kansas. Good basketball early! While the Blue Devils have good upper classmen, the talk is all about Jabari Parker. Many people were surprised when Parker picked Duke over BYU due to his religious affiliations. I was surprised he picked Duke because I figured the kid might actually want to be an NBA star someday. Sure, Kyrie Irving is fantastic and Elton Brand and Grant Hill had great careers, but I find it fundamentally strange that program like Duke's has not produced one player who scored 20,000 points in the NBA.

But back to Duke basketball which, though it fails to produce the best NBA players, produces a the highest quality college basketball players.

Duke has three really interesting non-conference games this season, the aforementioned Kansas on a neutral court, at home vs. Michigan, and at home vs. UCLA. I think these games, though all before Christmas, will give us solid insight into what kind of team Duke can be in 2013-14. I'm predicting they'll find their way into the national championship, but lose.

5. Kansas

3 National Championships, most recently 2008
14 Final Fours, most recently 2012
Last Season: Lost to Michigan in the regional semifinal

The Jayhawks lost their five leadings scorers from last season. Not a single returning player played more than 20 minutes per game in 2012-13 and only three played in all 37 games. Freshman guard Andrew Wiggins led the team in scoring in their opening game and he may very well be expected to continue that trend.

Honestly, though, I don't expect the Jayhawks to even win the Big 12. I think we have a Sweet 16 team here that fails to make a huge impact.

6. Arizona

1 National Championship , 1997
4 Final Fours, most recently 2001
Last Season: Lost to Ohio State in the regional semifinal

After over two decades of sustained quality, making the NCAA Tournament every year from 1985 to 2009, Arizona had some up and down years in recent history but they seem to be back to their usual standards. The Wildcats had a solid balance in 2012-13, but lost their top two scorers. The early indication is that the balance remains. In their first game, seven of Arizona's players played significant minutes and six of those scored 10 points or more. The problem seems to be that the Wildcats lack a go to guy. That will likely be Aaron Gordon, who boasted 13 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocked shots in their opener. But what should really concern Arizona fans is that they only beat Cal Poly by 11 points and Cal Poly should not be in the realm of a close game for the Wildcats.

I predict a decent seed for Arizona, a three or a four, but an early exit. Bold. I know.

7. Michigan

1 National Championship, 1989
7 Final Fours, most recently 2013
Last Season: Lost in the National Championship Game to Louisville

Michigan managed to invade the National Championship game from an eight seed last year. They lost their far and away best two players in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. and here they come ranked seventh in the nation? I don't see it. I expect Michigan to be out of the top 25 by the end of January. They may pick up an eight seed again, but don't expect the same fireworks as last year.

8. Syracuse

1 National Championship, 2003
5 Final Fours, most recently 2013
Last Season: Lost to Michigan in the National Semifinal

Michael Carter-Williams is making a splash in the NBA, but a sobering statistic is that MCW was the fourth leading scorer for the Orange last season and the leading scorer from 2012-13, C.J. Fair is back for his senior season. Sophomore Trevor Cooney made a statement in the first game of 2013-14, knocking down seven three-pointers. Expect Syracuse to pick up where they left off and make the Final Four again in 2014, but go no further.

8. Oklahoma State

2 National Championships, most recently 1946
6 Final Fours, most recently 2004
Last Season: Lost to Oregon in the first round

Oklahoma State is the one team in the preseason top 10 that has not had a lot of recent success. The best days of OK State basketball were the 40s and 50s. But unlike any other team in the top 10, the Cowboys lost nobody. They have their best players all returning and looking sharp. In another bold prediction, I think Oklahoma State will win its first national title in nearly 70 years.

10. Florida

2 National Championships, most recently 2007
4 Final Fours, most recently 2007
Last Season: Lost in the regional final to Michigan

The Gators have lost in the regional final each of the last three seasons. That sounds like a good place for them to land again in 2014. Casey Prather, Patric Young, and Michael Frazier II will need to step up and lead the team who lost their top three scorers from last season, but such is life for Florida who has established a really solid program over the last 20 years.

There you have it. My Final Four consists of Michigan State, Syracuse, Duke and Oklahoma State with Oklahoma State defeating Duke for the national championship.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:50 AM | Comments (0)

November 8, 2013

Empire State of Twine

Over the course of the holiday season, many folks travel from one part of the country to another. Some from north of the Mason-Dixon flock to warmer climates, while others head to more frigid locales. When you talk about college basketball, most of the tournaments are held in a place known for sun and fun. One of the exceptions is the Preseason NIT. The allure of Madison Square Garden overrides any chill or snow that New York can bring over Thanksgiving weekend.

The Biggest Headline of the Tournament

There are always multiple story lines going into this tournament. Most times, it will revolve around the players. In this tourney, a lot of the focus will go to Duke forward Jabari Parker. It will be the second big showcase for people to check out the freshman phenom (shortly after his tete-a-tete with fellow frosh Andrew Wiggins, and Kansas, in Chicago). However, I think a more interesting follow will concern Eddie Jordan's first voyage into college coaching.

In my own recollection, I can't remember any coach in Jordan's situation (a former NBA coach who went to a power conference program without serving one game as a college head coach). It will be interesting to see his pro influence on these young minds, and at a program that has had more down than up since he led the Scarlet Knights to the 1976 Final Four.

The Biggest Darkhorse of the Tournament

The above being said, I'm not sure how Rutgers garnered the fourth seed in this event. Sure, among the field, they are the fourth-biggest name after Duke, Arizona, and Alabama. Of course, the RAC is a more-than-decent locale to hold a regional. But for a squad that finished 15-16 last season, with three of the five starters returning, this seems like huge praise.

If a team can spoil the alum-based warm and fuzzies in this pod, it would probably be an experience-laden team who might have won a few games the previous season. Enter Elon. The Phoenix won 21 games last season, as well as the North Division of the Southern Conference. All five starters return for coach Mike Matheny, looking to top a conference that contains past NCAA darlings Davidson and College of Charleston. If a favorite falls, I'd look here for the result.

Can Arizona or Duke Miss Out on the Title Game?

No. Not as far as I can see. I would really like to see the Phoenix go up against the highly-ranked recruits that the Wildcats have to offer. But I can't envision Elon get past, through, or around Sean Miller's talent, including returning seven-foot center Kalib Tarczewski.

As far as Duke is concerned, they have the most talented team in the field. Will the Blue Devils miss Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly, and Mason Plumlee? Sure. But the return of Quinn Cook, Tyler Thornton, and Marshall Plumlee, along with the addition (for a year) of Parker should relieve any stress Mike Krzyzewski might feel. Even though Alabama (who have laid a few eggs to lower competition) might try to out-tough the Devils, I don't see the Tide hanging around for 40 full minutes.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:16 PM | Comments (0)

November 7, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 10

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Washington @ Minnesota (+1)

The 1-7 Vikings host the 3-5 Redskins on Thursday Night Football from Mall of America Stadium. The Vikes suffered a tough 27-23 loss in Dallas last week, despite 140 yards rushing from Adrian Peterson.

"This is a big game for Adrian," Leslie Frazier said. "He tore his knee up almost two years ago against the Redskins. Obviously, he's fully healed and stronger than ever. Now, if he hears a 'pop,' he knows it's from one of his children.

"Every week, I have a decision to make at the quarterback position between Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, and Josh Freeman. So, I put three names in a magician's hat, and pray not for a rabbit, but a rabbit's foot."

The Redskins won a huge 30-24 overtime decision in overtime versus the Chargers last week. The 'Skins are 3-5, two game back of the 5-4 Cowboys in the NFC East.

"Fullback Darrel Young bulled his way for three touchdowns," Mike Shanahan said. "Darrel is 5'11" and 251 pounds of brute force. We'd like to nickname him 'Ground Beef,' but the last thing we want to do is add vegetarians to our list of enemies."

Peterson rushes for 148 yards and 2 scores.

Minnesota wins, 27-24.

Seattle @ Atlanta (+7)

The Seahawks and Falcons last met in last year's divisional round, won by Atlanta 27-24 in the Georgia Dome. While the stakes are lower, Seattle is still bent on avenging the loss that kept them out of the NFC Championship Game.

"I feel sorry for Matt Ryan," Richard Sherman said. "All that arm and no one to throw to. Let me make a bold statement: there will be nothing in Atlanta wide open except my mouth."

The Falcons were pummeled 34-10 by the Panthers last week and are now 2-6 in the NFC South. Matt Ryan was picked off three times, and has thrown 7 interceptions in his last two games.

"Our wide receiver corps has really been hit hard by injuries," Ryan said, "and that's severely limited downfield options. The only place we've 'gone deep' this year is into our depth chart."

The Seahawks intercept Ryan twice, and Russell Wilson passes for a score and runs for another.

Seattle wins, 27-24.

Detroit @ Chicago (-3)

In their first game without Jay Cutler this season, the Bears upset the Packers in Green Bay 27-20 behind a strong effort from Josh McCown. Cutler plans to play on Sunday despite the effects of his groin injury.

"I'm dealing with a lot of pain in that region," Cutler said. "So much, in fact, that I have to stand to pee.

"But should I play, I'll be wearing extra protection, a device invented by none other than Mark Trestman, who's equally as innovative with protective gear as he is with offenses. The device is called the 'Grey Cup.' Trestman came up with the idea while coaching in Canada. Its slogan is 'Designed Up North To Protect You Down South.'"

The Lions return from their bye week at full strength, and ready to make a charge for the NFC North title. The Lions, Packers, and Bears are tied at the top with identical 5-3 records.

"Calvin Johnson outplayed Dez Bryant two weeks ago," Matthew Stafford said. "He'll likely do the same to Brandon Marshall on Sunday. Megatron has a way of silencing some of the biggest mouths in football, without saying a word, no less.

"I've got to commend Cutler on his bravery for even considering playing on Sunday. It takes guts to return from a groin injury and immediately face Ndamukong Suh. This could be another 'Malice in the Phallus' situation.

It's another big day for Megatron, as two third quarter touchdown catches transforms a Detroit deficit into a Lions' lead.

Detroit wins, 30-27.

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (-8)

Nick Foles tied an NFL record with 7 touchdown passes in the Eagles' 49-13 win in Oakland last week. Foles threw for 406 yards, with three of his seven touchdowns going to Riley Cooper.

"It's hard to describe Nick's performance with one word," Chip Kelly said. "But if I had to, I would call it an 'aberration.' But let's face it, Foles put his name in the record book. Only this time, it's not in his handwriting.

"But what can you say about Cooper? He put himself in a black hole earlier this year; after a career day in Oakland, he doesn't want to leave it. I'm sure the Cooper clan must be proud.

Aaron Rodgers was injured in the Packers' 27-20 loss against the Bears on Monday night. Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarterback, and is out indefinitely. Seneca Wallace took over on Monday and remains the starter.

"Seneca may not do much for our passing game," Mike McCarthy said, "but he makes our running game 100% better. Actually, he makes our running game 100%, because we're now going to run it all the time."

Green Bay wins, 27-23.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-14)

The Jaguars return to action after trip to London followed by a bye week, and will look to end their losing streak against AFC South rivals Tennessee.

"Justin Blackmon's been suspended again for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy," Gus Bradley said. "Justin's winless too, because he can't beat his addiction. Hopefully, he won't get a ride to rehab on a party bus, because the last thing he needs is a bottle thrown at him. Justin's issues are just a microcosm of this whole organization's problems, because we need help."

The Titans are still in the thick of the AFC South race after a big 28-21 win in St. Louis over the Rams and former Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher. Chris Johnson exploded for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns, his first rushing scores of the season.

"This was Johnson's breakout game," Mike Munchak said. "2,000 yards is probably out of the question, but that doesn't make Chris a lesser running back. He's still great, and still humble. He's grand, but not too grand.

"Before this week, I thought 'Haze And Bully' were the Total Nonstop Action wrestling tag team champions. I guess I was wrong. Richie Incognito is the bad guy. He's a 'heel' who just got the 'boot.'"

Tennessee wins, 27-16.

St. Louis @ Indianapolis (-11)

The Colts stormed back from a 21-3 halftime deficit in Houston to stun the Texans 27-24. Andrew Luck hooked up with T.Y. Hilton for three scores, and the Colts strengthened their grip on the lead in the AFC South.

"We regrouped at half time," Luck said. "T.Y. told me he felt could beat the Texans' cornerbacks on the perimeter, so we decided to 'pass out' in the second half.

"Our passing game may be our most important weapon. Since Peyton Manning arrived in Indianapolis, the Colts have thrived with their passing game. It's no different now. I like to throw it, T.Y. likes me to throw it, and Coach Pagano likes me to throw it. That's why we're reviving the 'Chuck Strong' motto for this season."

The Rams will have to pressure Luck to disrupt the potent Colts' passing game. They'll have to do it with Robert Quinn and Chris Long, who have combined for 15 1/2 sacks on the season.

"Long is known for one punch," Jeff Fisher said. "Combine him with Quinn, and it's a one-two punch. Collectively, those two have found the quarterback 15 times this year. I'd settle for finding a quarterback once."

The Colts race to a quick 14-0 lead, and hold on to win 27-21.

Oakland @ NY Giants (-8)

The Raiders suffered a 49-20 blowout loss to the visiting Eagles last week, surrendering 7 touchdown passes to Nick Foles.

"Our defense was just awful," Dennis Allen said. "The Eagles gave defensive coordinator Jason Tarver seven fingers.

"But Foles is no Eli Manning, I'm not sure whether that's a compliment or insult to Foles."

The 2-6 Giants emerge from their bye week looking to build a winning streak and get back in the thick of the NFC East race.

"The 'thick' of the NFC East is still thin," Tom Coughlin said.

"All the talk this week is about the situation in Miami. And speaking of 'The Situation in Miami,' season two was my favorite year of Jersey Shore."

The Raiders are without Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden, who were injured last week. That doesn't leave much in the way of offense, except the Giants, which itself isn't much in the way of offense.

Giants win, 27-13.

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh (-3½)

The Steelers left New England with a 55-31 loss and another blemish on their record, which now stands at 2-6. The 55 points were the most ever given up by a Pittsburgh team.

"Dick Labeau was a mess after the game," Mike Tomlin said. "He didn't even want to show his face. It was so bad, he checked in to a hotel under an assumed name. And it's just an awful coincidence that Dick Labeau's favorite alias is 'Richie Incognito.'

"Despite all the things I've banned from the locker room, we're still nearly last in the league in 'takeaways.'"

Buffalo's upset bid against the undefeated Chiefs ended in a 23-13 loss last week. The game turned on a 100 yard interception return by K.C.'s Sean Smith, which turned a potential 17-3 Bills lead into a 10-10 tie.

"Where's Don Beebe when you need him?" Doug Marrone said. "He's the only 'stripper' condoned by the NFL.

"Did we prove that we can play with the NFL's best? Not yet, because that can't be the NFL's best. The Chiefs are beatable. Of course, that loss may not come until the playoffs, when they'll finally face a winning team."

Pittsburgh wins, 31-24.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-3)

One week after he threw 5 touchdowns, Andy Dalton threw none in the Bengals' 22-20 overtime loss in Miami last Thursday. Dalton threw 3 interceptions and was sacked for the game-winning safety.

"A lot of people are asking if we're contenders of pretenders," Marvin Lewis said. "I think that answer lies with Dalton.

"But Dalton is much more effective when our run game is working. Giovani Bernard may be the most dynamic running back in the league. He's a game-changer. He was schooled at the University of North Carolina, where the real game-changers are the grade-changers."

The defending Super Bowl champion Ravens lost in Cleveland 24-18, and are now 3-4, which is still good enough for second in the unpredictable AFC North.

"Deer antler spray is back in the news," John Harbaugh said. "It seems that Ray Lewis isn't the only Raven associated with it. I've heard that if a stripper throws a bottle of that at your head, you can count on going 'stag' for the rest of the night."

Cincinnati wins, 19-14.

Carolina @ San Francisco (-7)

The 49ers are 6-2, one game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West, as the hot Panthers come to town. After a 1-2 start to the season, San Fran has reeled off five consecutive wins.

"Does Cam Newton really have an 'S' on his chest?" Colin Kaepernick said. "Nope. Unlike me, he's got no ink there. In other words, he's got 'BS' on his chest.

"We're happy to have Aldon Smith back with the team. He is a cornerstone of our defense, and we need his ability to rush the quarterback. But just be careful when you mention a 'sack'; we don't want any mention whatsoever of 'brown-bagging.'"

San Francisco wins, 20-15.

Houston @ Arizona (+1)

The Texans built a 21-3 lead over the Colts, powered by Case Keenum and Andre Johnson, before a disastrous second half left them staring in disbelief at a 27-24 loss and a 2-6 record.

"Like Gary Kubiak," Johnson said, "we collapsed. Unlike Kubiak, there's no recovering.

"We all are responsible for the situation we're in. We're all guilty of falling down on the job. Ultimately, Coach Kubiak will probably be the casualty of this disappointing season. If Coach hasn't already earned the nickname 'The Fall Guy,' he will sooner or later."

Arizona wins, 23-21.

Denver @ San Diego (+7½)

The 7-1 Broncos head to San Diego, beginning a tough, four-game stretch that also includes a showdown with the Patriots sandwiched between two contests versus the Chiefs.

"Coach John Fox is out indefinitely with heart surgery," Peyton Manning said. "But we'll be fine. Honestly, I don't expect us to miss a beat. History tells us that Jack Del Rio is perfectly capable of leading a team, especially on the route to oblivion.

"I used the bye week to rest my weary arm. It feels better, but it's still weak. So for all you Denver fans, don't expect anything out of the ordinary, like a spiral."

The Chargers are 4-4 after last week's 30-24 overtime loss in Washington. Any hope of remaining alive in the AFC West race rests on success against the Broncos.

"I've got two bolts on my helmet," Phillip Rivers said. "We're hoping lightning strikes twice, in Denver and Kansas City. That may be the only way we can make the playoffs."

Denver wins, 31-27.

Dallas @ New Orleans (-7½)

Tony Romo's 7-yard touchdown pass to Dwayne Harris with 35 seconds left gave the Cowboys a thrilling 27-23 win over Adrian Peterson and the Vikings. Now 5-4, the Cowboys own a one-game lead over the Eagles in the NFC East.

"Say what you want about Dez Bryant," Romo said, "but he's the key to our season. You simply can't describe him without using the superlative. Such as, he's the greatest distraction on our sideline. Now that's impressive, especially with Jerry Jones making the rounds."

The Saints lost for only the second time this season, falling 26-20 to the Jets at MetLife Stadium. Drew Brees passed for 382 yards and 2 touchdowns, but also threw 2 costly interceptions.

"It's like the Jets knew where I was going," Brees said. "I have my suspicions. I think Rob Ryan must have tipped his twin brother off to our scheme.

"It's important we defend Bryant. I think we've got a plan. We'll just throw beads at him and hope he loses his top."

New Orleans wins, 30-27.

Miami @ Tampa Bay (+2½)

The Buccaneers nearly upset the Seahawks in Seattle, but blew a 21-0 lead and eventually lost 27-24 in overtime. The 0-8 Bucs look for their first win of the year as they host the 4-4 Dolphins at Raymond James Stadium, where there's a ship in the end zone that's been taking on water.

"The Seahawks found a way to win," Greg Schiano said. "Most of our opponents do, they just have a much easier time finding it.

"Coincidentally, I have experience with bullying and running a player out of Florida. And everybody hates me."

Miami is 4-4 after last Thursday's 22-20 overtime win over the Bengals, a game won on Cameron Wake's sack of Andy Dalton for a safety.

"That was a huge win," Joe Philbin said. "But it's been overshadowed by the Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito situation. It appears that Martin and Incognito mix like oil and vinegar. I'd say Incognito is more like water and vinegar, because he's a huge douche. We hope Richie lives up to his surname and disappears."

Tampa wins, 22-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:52 PM | Comments (0)

The BBWAA's March Into November

Baseball is a game better suited for discussion than observation. Between pitchers shaking off signs, hitters stepping out of the batter's box, and catchers constantly running out to the mound, it is far more cerebral than physical. That makes it hard to watch, but fun to debate. The real drama comes with the second-guessing and trade proposals and player value comparisons that we exchange around water coolers and over radio airwaves from the last out today to the opening pitch tomorrow.

But this is November. There are no more pitches to be thrown. No 40-minute pre-game shows on the radio, nor four-hour games on television. No post-game pressers or locker room interviews to cover. It's all unencumbered airwaves, fillable by the content of wild speculation. That's what makes this the best month of the season. And until the Hot Stove heats up (remember, Scott Boras doesn't like his clients jumping at the first offer), that speculation focuses on postseason award winners.

As baseball fans, we all share a paradoxical obsession with individual achievement in the context of a team sport. Even in the depths of a 2-1 World Series deficit, Boston-area talk show callers were as concerned about the series MVP as they were about manager John Farrell's handling of the National League style of play. Fans in every sport live vicariously through our favorite players. Like proud parents at a child's graduation, we want accolades heaped upon them because it's like they're heaped upon us, too. Baseball in particular takes it to another level.

The NBA shines in their ping-pong ball lotteries, the NFL at its college draft, the NCAA with its March Madness brackets, but MLB is the best-in-class when it comes to postseason awards. Perhaps no organization knows that better than the Baseball Writers Association of America, or BBWAA.

Last year, the BBWAA — those keepers of the Hall of Fame gates and arbiters of MLB's Rookies of the Year, Managers of the Year, Cy Young winners, and Most Valuable Players since the beginning of time — found a new way to bolster their prominence each November. They began an Oscars-like announcement of finalists for each of their coveted awards, and then took to the MLB Network to unveil winners a week later. The self-aggrandizing stunt seems to have served its purpose: the baseball world has been debating each finalist since Monday's nominees were announced.

There's little surprise that it took the BBWAA 105 years to reap this kind of exposure bucks. After all, this stodgy collection of baseball writers who make the Council of Ivy Group Presidents look like spontaneous school children isn't exactly known for being quick of foot. They kept their own doors shut to all but newspaper writers until 2007, and their presidential suite to women and blacks until the last two years, respectively. Broadcasters and most Internet writers are still persona non grata.

What's even less surprising is that the BBWAA's new standard operating procedure could have righted a wrong — real or perceived — but they didn't take it that far.

The BBWAA wields its gavel with Supreme Court-like purity, yet their decisions seem a consensus of biases dragged through a grassroots collection of local judges each with personal agendas. Some vote down the party line of traditional statistics, while others invoke the language of SABR. Within their ranks are both a tolerance for known PED offenders and an outright dismissiveness of even suspected cheats. Newly-elected president La Velle Neal himself disregarded his own constitution and used a personal prejudice against starting pitchers to deny Pedro Martinez of an MVP award in 1999. That's akin to our country's Chief Justice not recognizing the Bill of Rights.

The BBWAA could have bestowed some real significance on their contrived round of finalists if they had just made it a base to launch a runoff. Each voting member would be required to rank every finalist, because undervotes would split unassigned points on each ballot. It would protect the whole of the BBWAA from the sum of its individual flaws. Voters would no longer have the ability to disregard Jason Verlander for MVP, nor an opportunity to add illegitimate write-ins like Michael Young.

Unfortunately, the BBWAA didn't go there. They've made this a pointless announcement in a shameless pining for more autumn relevance, wasting our time with unnecessary subtotaling when final results were long ago tabulated.

None of my web colleagues on Sports Central figure to be admitted into the BBWAA ranks soon, but we can still have our say. I'm going to stay within the prescribed list of finalists and select Chris Archer and Jose Fernandez for best rookies, John Farrell and Clint Hurdle for best managers, Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright for Cy Young, and Chris Davis and Yadier Molina as MVPs.

Maybe I'll let the BBWAA know how my votes were cast. But by self-addressed stamped envelope, of course. I don't imagine they've heard about the Internet yet

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 1:15 PM | Comments (0)

November 6, 2013

Wacky Week in Women's Tennis

The tennis season is nearing its end. The WTA already played its year-ending WTA Championships in Istanbul, Turkey, with Serena Williams emerging as the champion one more time. Historically, this tournament signaled the end of individual competition for the year in women's tennis. The Fed Cup finals take place one week later, but it's a team competition involving two countries and a handful of players, which means that it's resting time for the players until January.

But for the last four years, the WTA has scheduled an additional event. To top it all, it has the wackiest name that I have ever heard for a tournament: "Masters bis." This year, it was held in Sofia, Bulgaria, and it involved those players who finished high in the rankings, but not high enough to qualify for the WTA Championships. It was merely a matter of time before the events butted heads, and it finally happened this year.

This year's event clashed with the Fed Cup finals between Italy and Russia. The problem began when one Italian player, Roberta Vinci, and three Russian players, Maria Kirilenko, Elena Vesnina and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova received invitation to play the "Masters bis" — I admit, I can't get over the "Parisian street address" name. Roberta Vinci chose to represent Italy in the Fed Cup finals, but all three Russians chose the tournament over Fed Cup.

With Maria Sharapova, Svetlana Kuznetsova, and Ekaterina Makarova unavailable for various other reasons, the legendary Russian captain Shamil Tarpischev found himself unable to field a competitive team, despite having six Russian players in the top 30 rankings. He settled for four players outside the top 100 against the Italian team composed of its top guns, Sara Errani (#7), Roberta Vinci (#13), Flavia Pennetta (#31), and Karina Knapp (#41). To add salt to the Russians' wounds, the tie was held in Cagliari, Italy, in front of an enthusiastic partisan crowd.

Needless to say, the Italians won without losing a match, although the first match between Vinci and Alexandra Panova produced a dramatic encounter, lasting three hours and 13 minutes, with Vinci saving four match points before finally defeating Panova 5-7, 7-5, 8-6. The presence of the second-tier Russian team should take nothing away from the Italians performance. It was impressive how united they appeared throughout the tie, constantly cheering their teammates, moving from one side of the stadium to the other every game change so that their encouragement could be heard by their teammate on the court.

Francescha Schiavone played the leader role on the sidelines without even being officially selected for the team. Errani confirmed the positive influence of her presence when she told Italy's leading sports journal La Gazzetta dello Sport that she was glad to see that even Schiavone was part of the team. In short, the Italians showed how team spirit can still have a positive effect on tennis performance, which otherwise would seem to rest on individual skills and effort.

Next year, there will not be a repeat of this conflict, since the International Tennif Federation (ITF) — responsible of Davis Cup and Fed Cup events — agreed to move the Fed Cup finals a week later, coinciding with the week scheduled between the ATP Paris Masters and the ATP World Tour Finals (this year, they are back-to-back, but it will have a week in-between in 2014).

Lastly, the conflict also brought to the surface the larger set of problems facing Russian tennis on the one hand, and the tension between the International Tennis Federation and the WTA on the other.

Tarpischev, who is also the President of the Russian tennis Federation, has already expressed his dismay in 2012 at how the Russian authorities balk at every proposal the Federation brings to the table with regards to their tennis programs. The young talented Russian players defect to other countries — for example, Mikhaïl Kukushkin and Andrey Golubev now represent Kazakhstan — due to the promise of more money and better opportunities.

There is also a communication problem between the women's tennis players and the Federation considering, for example, that Elena Vesnina put the blame on the Tarpischev for not managing the problem in a timely fashion. It is already widely known that Maria Sharapova and the Russian Federation have had close to zero communication and that Sharapova is not likely to play for Russia any time soon (although, this time around, it can "officially" be blamed on her injury).

There is equally a "cold war" brewing since 2009 between the ITF and the WTA. That is the year the extra event was scheduled by the WTA. Then, in 2012, the ITF decided that it would double the requirement of representing his/her country in Davis/Fed Cup for tennis players who wished to participate in the 2016 Olympics. While they were required to participate in two ties to be eligible for the 2012 London Olympics, now they have to play in four ties if they wish to be eligible for the 2016 Rio Olympics. Both the ITF and the WTA are standing firm behind their position, and other than the ITF's decision to accommodate the scheduling next year, there does not seem to be much communication or compromise.

Under these circumstances, it is hard to cheer the 50th-year anniversary of Fed Cup competition, but Italians deserve high praise for their fourth Fed Cup title since 2006.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 1:39 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 34

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson led 255 of 334 laps in a dominant win at Texas, his sixth win of the year. Johnson now leads Matt Kenseth, who finished fourth, by 7 points in the Sprint Cup points standings.

"I had the same 7-point lead after Texas last November," Johnson said, "and didn't win the championship. I'm hoping this is one time when I don't repeat."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished fourth in the AAA Texas 500, slowed by a pit road speeding penalty midway through the race. Jimmie Johnson won and took a 7-point lead in the points standings.

"I'm neither throwing in the towel," Kenseth said, "nor am I waving the white flag. Ask anyone, except Carl Edwards, and they'll tell you there's no surrender in me."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt took the runner-up spot at Texas, following Hendrick teammate Jimmie Johnson across the line. It was Earnhardt's third second-place finish of the Chase.

"There have been a lot of great drivers who have never won a Cup," Earnhardt said. "Hopefully I can put myself in that category someday."

4. Jeff Gordon — One week after victory at Martinsville, disaster struck for Gordon at Texas, as a blown tire on lap 74 sent him into the wall. He eventually finished 38th, 187 laps down, and tumbled to sixth in the points, 69 out of first.

"Are you sure this is the AAA 500 and not the NRA 500?" Gordon said. "Because my championship hopes are 'shot.'"

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished eighth at Texas and is now third in the points standings, 40 out of first.

"Will I be happier at Stewart-Haas Racing?" Harvick said. "Well, as Richard Childress has clearly stated, it's all relative."

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer came home tenth in the AAA Texas 500, posting his 18th top-10 of the year. He is seventh in the Sprint Cup points standings, 69 out of first.

"This race in Texas wasn't sponsored by the NRA," Bowyer said. "In hindsight, maybe the race in Richmond should have been sponsored by the NRA, because there were at least two amendments made to the Chase field afterwards."

7. Kyle Busch — Busch, who won at Texas in April, finished 13th on Sunday in the AAA 500. Like many drivers, Busch's day was hindered by a blown tire suffered early in the race.

"The blown tire put me in a hole early," Busch said. "I felt much like a North Carolina state trooper chasing me, because I was playing catch up."

8. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished 12th at Texas, leading one lap after starting 18th. He is eighth in the points standings, 73 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I apologized to Johnson for my actions at Martinsville," Biffle said. "It was only the second most controversial 'spin' move in NASCAR this year. Maybe I shouldn't have grabbed Jimmie from behind, but that's where I always seem to find myself."

9. Joey Logano — Logano finished third in the AAA Texas 500, posting his first top-five result since a fourth at Kansas in early October.

"It felt good to run with the big dogs," Logano said, "instead of from them."

10. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski led 30 laps and finished sixth in the AAA Texas 500 at Texas, one day after winning the Nationwide Series race.

"I may not repeat as champion," Keselowski said, "but the future is bright for this 29-year-old. I see nothing but clear, sunny skies ahead, because the 'reign' is over."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:29 AM | Comments (0)

November 5, 2013

NFL 2013 Midseason Report Card

It's the middle of the season, and it's time to hand out grades for all 32 teams.

Denver Broncos: A

Every game is a shootout, and the Broncos have the best weapons. They are on pace to challenge or break numerous records. They lead the league — by huge amounts — in points per game (42.9) and yards per game (466.4). Denver has scored at least 33 in every game, and Peyton Manning is in top form. Only eight other QBs have half as many passing TDs as Manning. The defense is vulnerable, and it's reasonable to wonder if the 37-year-old Manning can maintain this performance all season, but halfway through the term, Denver is at the top of the class.

Head coach John Fox will leave the team for several weeks while he recovers from heart surgery. Defensive coordinator and former Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio will assume interim head coaching duties in his absence.

Kansas City Chiefs: A

The Chiefs have nearly twice as many points (215) as their opponents (111). No one has scored more than 17 against them. This week, KC's defense outscored the opposing Bills' offense, with a pair of return touchdowns. It's easy to underrate the Chiefs for two reasons: (1) They're a great defensive team, and we tend to appreciate offense more easily. (2) They went 2-14 last year. No one's going to believe in them until they start beating some playoff teams. Kansas City's opponents have a combined record of 27-48 (.360). The 5-4 Cowboys are the best of the bunch, but that was a 17-16 home win. No worries, Chief fans: win at Denver in Week 11, and everyone will rank you at the top. For now, there's no complaining about 9-0, and if the Chiefs haven't earned an A+ yet, they certainly deserve an A.

Seattle Seahawks: A-

In Seattle, they're 4-0, including a 29-3 beat-down of their most important rival, the 49ers. But they're vulnerable on the road, and some weaknesses have become apparent the last few weeks. Most obvious is the offensive line, especially the tackles. They can't block, which is a pretty big problem. The Seahawks have also allowed 130-yard rushers in each of the past two games, both by unheralded rookies. Seattle has the best record in the NFC, and Percy Harvin may join the team at some point, but there's room for improvement.

San Francisco 49ers: A-

Since back-to-back 20-point losses in Weeks 2 and 3, they've won five in a row, all by double-digits. None of those games came against top competition, but they were decisive wins, and San Francisco did beat Green Bay in Week 1. Frank Gore is still a machine, the defense plays well, and Aldon Smith has re-joined the active roster. Colin Kaepernick has been up-and-down, but it looks like the offense may have found its identity, and the Niners are serious contenders in the NFC.

New Orleans Saints: A-

Is it weird to say their biggest problem is Drew Brees? The defense is playing well this year, especially against the pass, and the many-headed run game is effective when it gets a chance. And of course, Brees is terrific. But he passes a lot. If I called plays for Drew Brees, I'd probably pass a lot, too. But running the ball more often might help the offense establish consistency and improve its good-but-not-great third down percentage. It could also help keep the defense fresh, and keep Brees healthy. For the first time since leaving San Diego seven years ago, Brees is taking too many sacks. His season-by-season sack totals with New Orleans, starting in 2006: 18, 16, 13, 20, 25, 24, 26, 40 (well, 20 so far).

The Saints have two critical home games coming up, against the Cowboys and 49ers. If they win both — and at home, they should be favored — they have a real chance to take control of the NFC playoff picture. I have to believe that whoever wins homefield advantage in the NFC will advance to the Super Bowl, and I think with the focus on the NFC West, a lot of people are underrating the Saints.

New England Patriots: B+

They're 7-2, they've scored at least 27 for four weeks in a row, and they just hung 55 on the Steelers. Rob Gronkowski is back (and still awesome), and they're getting Aqib Talib back. But their top two defensive players are out for the season (Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo), and Tom Brady really misses Wes Welker. Superb Week 9 notwithstanding, this isn't the same Patriots offense we've seen the last three seasons. The Patriots are still winning games, but not the way you expect from an A student.

Indianapolis Colts: B+

Confusing mix of signature wins (49ers, Seahawks, Broncos), disappointing losses (Dolphins, Chargers), and close wins over mediocre opponents (Raiders, Texans). The Colts are 6-2, and near-locks to win the AFC South. Andrew Luck has improved, and Robert Mathis leads the NFL in sacks. Their offensive line looked vulnerable against Houston, and it remains to be seen how they handle the loss of Reggie Wayne.

Cincinnati Bengals: B+

Confusing mix of signature wins (Packers, Patriots), disappointing losses (Dolphins, Browns), and some other games. The Bengals are 6-3, and near-locks to win the AFC North. But their best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, and their best cornerback, Leon Hall, are both out for the season. Cincinnati only has one remaining game against an opponent with a winning record, and wins in the next two weeks — against the Ravens and Browns — would basically clinch a division title.

Green Bay Packers: B

The question is Aaron Rodgers. If he has a broken collarbone, it's tough to view the Packers as a top team or serious playoff contender. If he misses a game or returns at less than 100%, Green Bay is probably still the favorite to win the NFC North. When he's healthy, the Packers are clearly the class of the division. They have a terrific offense, including a potent run game. The defense is not impressive, but it's not bad enough to keep a Rodgers-led offense out of the playoffs. The next three games are all against teams with losing records, and two of them are at home, so there's no need to rush Rodgers back if he needs a little time to heal up. If he's out for the rest of the regular season, though, he's going to get a long rest, because Green Bay won't make the playoffs without him.

Carolina Panthers: B

The draft-day additions of Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short have helped turn a defense with some good pieces into a cohesive unit that is among the best in the league. Cam Newton, after a slow start, has played at a very high level for the past month. The Panthers lead the NFC in point differential (+98), and if the season ended today, they would make the playoffs on a tie-breaker. There's room for progress, but this team is moving in the right direction.

Dallas Cowboys: B

They've faced a tough schedule, including road games against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Lions, plus their epic last-minute home loss to Denver. But they're 5-4, they lead the NFC East, and they're 3-0 in the division, with wins against each of their rivals. DeMarco Murray returned to action this week, and DeMarcus Ware should be back soon, as well. When I look at their schedule, I see 10 wins. The media keeps pretending other teams might take this division, but it would be pretty shocking if Dallas doesn't win the NFC East. The Cowboys lead the NFC in scoring (257) and turnover differential (+10).

Detroit Lions: B

Scored more than 20 points in all of their games, except Week 5, when Calvin Johnson didn't play. Reggie Bush gives the offense a new dimension, and keeps defenses honest by forcing them to honor the run and the underneath pass. Four of Detroit's remaining games are against teams that are 2-6 or worse (PIT, TB, NYG, MIN). If the Lions can sweep those and split their other four, that gets them to 11-5. The health of Johnson and Bush is paramount.

New York Jets: B

Coming off a 4-12 season, trading away Darrelle Revis, and starting a rookie QB who may have been their second choice — behind Mark Sanchez — the Jets are 5-4 and in playoff position. They're an up-and-down team, tough to figure out. They lost to the 2-6 Steelers, and rookie QB Geno Smith looked overwhelmed, but they beat the previously 5-1 Patriots and 6-1 Saints. They got blown out by the Titans (38-13) and Bengals (49-9). As you might expect with a rookie under center, a lot of it is about keeping Geno Smith comfortable. In wins, Geno has 10 TDs and 4 INTs, with 26 rushing yards per game and an 89.4 passer rating. In losses, 1 TD and 9 INTs, with 10 rushing yards per game and a 51.7 rating.

I suspect many fans still aren't sold on the Jets, but if the playoffs started today, they'd be in, and they only have one more game against someone with a winning record (at Panthers, Week 15).

Chicago Bears: B

I am not making this up: they rank 2nd in the NFL in points per game, and 29th in total defense. The Bears have scored at least 24 points in seven of their eight games, and they've topped 30 four times. They've also allowed over 20 points in every game this season. Injuries on the defensive line have decimated that unit, which allowed 199 rushing yards against the Packers. The offense, however, has thrived in Jay Cutler's absence. Cutler reportedly will play in Week 10, but Josh McCown has performed well, and it may be too late for Cutler to preserve the $100 million payday he was hoping to land from Chicago this offseason.

San Diego Chargers: B

They're a weird 4-4. They beat the Cowboys and Colts, both by more than a touchdown. They lost by double-digits to the lowly Raiders, and by three or in overtime against three pretty decent teams. The Chargers are probably better than their record shows, but it's likely to get worse. There are remaining games against the Bengals and at the Dolphins, plus Denver and Kansas City twice each. An average team probably loses five of those six. Long-term, it's encouraging to see Philip Rivers play like an elite QB again. The addition of Danny Woodhead, as with Reggie Bush in Detroit, is huge.

Tennessee Titans: B

If they can go about 9-7, they'll probably make the playoffs, thanks to tiebreaker wins over the Jets and Chargers. Third-year QB Jake Locker looks good, and the offensive line, with free agent Andy Levitre and first-round draft pick Chance Warmack, is playing better. But the big leap has come on defense. Last year, the Titans allowed the most points in the NFL. Right now, they rank 9th. Alterraun Verner (4 INT) has emerged as a star. Bernard Pollard, added in free agency, has two INTs and leads the team in tackles. But mostly, it's just the unit as a whole stepping forward.

Washington: B-

They're only 1.5 games behind Dallas, and the teams play in Washington in December. If anyone is going to top Dallas in the NFC East, it's this team. The offense averages over 400 yards a game, and weapons like Pierre Garçon and Jordan Reed are coming into their own. The defense has lived on takeaways, and you'd like to see more consistency, more stops on third down. As much as anything, the team needs to stop making mistakes and beating itself. They've allowed a defensive or special teams TD for five straight weeks.

Arizona Cardinals: B-

Carson Palmer has elevated the offense, but it's still not very good. The defense, however, is above-average, maybe top-10 with Daryl Washington back. Arizona is 4-4, including wins over the Lions and Panthers. Three of the four losses came against the best teams in the league, the Saints, 49ers, and Seahawks. The remaining schedule is tough, and they're not a strong playoff contender right now, but they're moving in the right direction and they're mostly healthy.

Cleveland Browns: B-

New head coach Rob Chudzinski has an offensive background, and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner is famous, but it's Ray Horton and the defense that are most responsible for Cleveland's surprising 4-4 record. The Browns rank 4th in total defense and 2nd in sacks. There's no one star who's emerged, so much as a few new faces doing good things and a general improvement across the board.

Baltimore Ravens: C+

Other than Peyton Manning's 7-TD performance in Week 1, the defense has held up pretty well, even without stars like Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, and Bernard Pollard. The offense, deprived of Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, and Matt Birk, is a much bigger problem. Marshal Yanda is the only good player on the line, Joe Flacco is clearly not an elite quarterback, Ray Rice is having a miserable season, and no one's stepped up to fill the void created by Boldin. The Ravens have lost three in a row, and it's been a disappointing follow-up to a Super Bowl, but four of the next five are at home.

Philadelphia Eagles: C+

0-4 at home, 4-1 on the road. Those four wins are against teams with a combined record of 8-23: Washington, the Giants, Tampa Bay, and Oakland. By yardage, Philadelphia has the worst defense in the NFL, allowing 419 per game. Nick Foles has played two great games, and unless he gets injured, it would be surprising to see Michael Vick start for the Eagles again. Success doesn't come easy in the NFL, and Chip Kelly hasn't built the system he had at Oregon, but he's doing something different, and it's interesting.

Miami Dolphins: C

Started 3-0, including wins over the Colts and the Falcons when they still had Julio Jones. They're 1-4 since, including two losses to sub-.500 teams and the other two by double-digits. Big-name free agent acquisitions have improved the defense, but not by nearly as much as many anticipated. On offense, deep threat Mike Wallace has been largely invisible, partly because Ryan Tannehill can't stay upright long enough for anything to develop downfield. Tannehill leads the NFL in sacks and sack yardage lost. The Dolphins' line misses Jake Long, but it seems to me that the problem is less about getting beat on blocks than not blocking the right people. A lot of these sacks are from players who are totally unblocked, simply because Miami can't figure out its protection.

It remains to be seen how the Jonathan Martin situation will play out, but right now, it's cost the Dolphins two of their five starting offensive lineman, with Martin absent and Richie Incognito suspended by the team. I dropped Miami's grade, because the whole situation is low-class, and based on what's been reported, it's an organizational problem.

Buffalo Bills: C

Scored between 20-24 points in each of their first seven games. That is remarkably consistent for a team with so much offensive upheaval. The Bills have started three different QBs, including two rookies, and their biggest star, RB C.J. Spiller, has been limited all season. Three of their six losses are by a field goal or less.

Oakland Raiders: C

Oakland ranks 14th in yards per game, but tied for 28th in points per game. The problem, as best I can tell, is the all-or-nothing nature of a Terrelle Pryor offense. Normally, a team with lots of yards and few points has turnover problems and/or really bad red zone offense, with too many short field goals. The Raiders are -3 in turnover differential, which is tied for 21st, not terrible. They definitely don't have a lot of short field goals; Oakland actually is tied for second-fewest FGs in the NFL (9). But the team ranks 26th in third down percentage (35%), and I'm left to guess that four factors explain Oakland's failure to turn yardage into points:

1) The team has an explosive, big-play offense that gains yardage in bunches and generates some touchdowns, but doesn't sustain drives or consistently improve field position.

2) Sebastian Janikowski is having a bad year, just 9/13 on field goal attempts, including 2 misses from inside 50 yards.

3) The Raiders are still near the top of the league in penalties, and they don't have good special teams that set up field position. That's hidden yardage working against you.

4) Bad luck.

I've only seen the Raiders twice, but that's my shot at an explanation. A team that can't score and can't stop Nick Foles might normally get a lower grade than this, but 3-5 Oakland gets some credit for slightly exceeding expectations.

St. Louis Rams: C

Zac Stacy has been a pleasant surprise, but the good news ends there. With or without Sam Bradford, the passing game is a disappointment. Weapons like Tavon Austin and Chris Givens are wasted in an offense that never goes downfield. Few analysts expected St. Louis to make the playoffs, but most fans thought the offense would show some obvious improvement, and that hasn't been the case. Three of the Rams' six losses were by more than two touchdowns.

Houston Texans: D

The Texans entered this season with a Pro Bowl QB, one of the best RBs in the NFL, a brilliant wide receiver, and the best defensive player of the last 20 years. Brian Cushing is out for the season (again) and Arian Foster doesn't look like himself. They've lost some close games, and they're three plays away from being 5-3, but that's just added to the frustration. Coming off back-to-back division titles and expecting big things, there's a lot of stress in Houston. The medical condition of head coach Gary Kubiak is unclear as of this writing, but I think everyone in Houston would benefit if fans would calm down and try to keep some perspective.

Houston and Atlanta are graded on a curve, marked down for falling so far beneath expectations. Also, for failing to make deals at the trade deadline. I get that fans will riot if they play Matt Schaub again, and Case Keenum looked pretty good in Week 9, but why not try to trade Schaub? In the last five seasons, Schaub has thrown for 4,000 yards three times, never had a passer rating below 90, and made two Pro Bowls, including last season's. If you can't play him, why not try to get some value?

Atlanta Falcons: D

They opened 1-3, but the losses came to the Patriots, Saints, and Dolphins, twice on the road and all by 7 or less. That didn't seem so bad. They're 1-3 since, as well, but losing to the Jets at home, losing badly to the Cardinals, and getting embarrassed by the Panthers.

Four key absences have really hurt the team: retired center Todd McClure, injured WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones, and departed free agent John Abraham. The right side of the offensive line is a disaster, and Atlanta is averaging just 3.5 yards per rush. Matt Ryan is struggling in the red zone, because teams can double-team Tony Gonzalez and he doesn't have any other weapons. Harry Douglas has played well since Julio's injury, but he's not Julio. And the defense is awful. Last year, some problems were camouflaged by an explosive offense that kept opponents playing from behind, setting up big plays like sacks and turnovers. This year, Atlanta hasn't held anyone below 23 points, and that includes some pretty rotten offenses.

The NFL trade deadline is almost always boring, but there was one obvious move this season: send Tony Gonzalez back to Kansas City. Gonzalez joined the Falcons after 12 seasons in KC, and Atlanta talked him out of retirement with the promise of a Super Bowl run in 2013. Atlanta has tanked, and the Chiefs are undefeated but need more weapons in the passing game. Why not move Gonzalez for a mid-round draft choice in 2014?

New York Giants: D

Having their worst year since Eli Manning's rookie season, 2004. The Giants rank 30th in points per game and 31st in point differential, ahead of only Jacksonville. They're 32nd in turnover differential, -12. They've won two in a row after an 0-6 start, but the damage is done, and this team isn't going on a 7-1 run in the second half of the season. In a year with the NFC East winnable by an average team and the Super Bowl in their home stadium, the Giants have blown an opportunity. Injuries at RB have forced the team to its fifth different starter of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: D

Comparable to the Giants. The Steelers are always competitive, and it looked like they might have a shot at the playoffs with the Ravens rebuilding. Instead, they're having their worst season in a decade. Like the Giants, they have a terrible turnover differential (-11), but unlike New York, their problem is less about losing the ball than not taking it away. The Steelers aren't generating any turnovers, and their defense looks old and slow, as illustrated by Terrelle Pryor in Week 8. The Steelers also allowed 40 points against Chicago, 34 against the Vikings, and a franchise-high 55 against New England on Sunday. This is Pittsburgh's worst defense since Bill Cowher became head coach in 1992.

Minnesota Vikings: D

I don't like giving out so many bad grades, but teams like the Texans, Falcons, Giants, Steelers, and Vikings aren't just bad — they're disappointing. All five teams made the playoffs within the past two seasons. All felt like they had a shot this year. And all of them are out of realistic contention. Minnesota is 1-7. The Vikings have three bad quarterbacks and a defense that can't stop anyone. Every opponent has scored at least 23, and most have scored over 30. Even Adrian Peterson has struggled. His stated goal this season was 2,500 rushing yards. He's on pace for 1,422. To meet his goal, he'd have to average 223.6 yards per game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: D-

They're 0-8, they made an ugly, public break with their starting QB, and we hear reports every week about the head coach losing the locker room and maybe getting fired. They avoid an F because I'm grading on a curve. The Jaguars have been even worse on the field, and the Dolphins have been even worse off it.

Jacksonville Jaguars: F

I wrote in depth last week about how bad the Jaguars are. They're 0-8. All of their losses are by double-digits. They have scored the fewest points in the NFL (86) and allowed the most (264). Jacksonville is on pace for the worst single-season point differential in NFL history, -356. It's really bad.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:23 PM | Comments (0)

November 4, 2013

BCS Chase: Can the Unbeatens Remain?

So here we go, heading into the final month of the college football season. Seven teams remain unbeaten with five of those having legitimate shots at playing in the final BCS championship game come next January. While some commentators have wondered what will happen if there are more than two unbeaten teams, others have had the same questions in the event there are a bevy of one-loss teams.

With both scenarios possible, here is a look at the teams with zero losses and what lies ahead for each of them, who has the best shot at remaining undefeated and who could falter by the end.

Note: Rankings are BCS standings prior to Nov. 3.

#1 Alabama (8-0)

Of the seven remaining unbeaten teams, 'Bama's schedule probably lies in the middle of the pack as far as difficulty is concerned. Next on the docket for the Tide is #13 LSU (7-2), a team that historically plays Alabama tough. Following that game is a tussle with Mississippi State (4-4) on the road, and then a home game with Chattanooga (7-2, FCS), which will be a nice tune-up for the season finale in the Iron Bowl against #11 Auburn (8-1). If the standings hold pat (and the Tide wins out), the SEC championship game would pit Alabama against #9 Missouri (8-1 and current East Division leader).

So the Tide has several tough matchups ahead, a couple of which could present prime opportunities for them to lose. But, speaking of tough, the Crimson Tide defense is allowing less than 10 points per game, and includes giving up 42 to Texas A&M. None of Alabama's remaining opponents have the same type of prolific offenses that the Aggies have, so the likelihood of a stumble before the BCS title game is ... well ... not likely.

#2 Oregon (8-0)

The Ducks have one of the easier roads to perfection, with the exception of this Thursday's tilt at #5 Stanford (7-1). The Cardinal dashed Oregon's hopes for a national title bid last season in Eugene, and they pose the biggest threat to the Ducks' aspirations this season. If they survive that, the road is much easier, although not entirely a cake-walk. After the battle in Palo Alto, Oregon has a home date with Utah (4-4), a road trip to Arizona (6-2), and then the Civil War against Oregon State (6-3) in Autzen Stadium.

Should the Ducks hold serve in the North, they would face Arizona State (6-2, 4-1; South Division leaders) in the Pac-12 championship game. If Oregon takes care of business against Stanford, the only thing they will need to be wary of is a let-down against lesser competition down the stretch. If they can handle the pressure of not playing down to their opponents, there's no reason the Ducks won't finally give college football fans the championship game they've anticipated the past few seasons — a date with Alabama for the national title.

#3 Florida State (8-0)

The Seminoles probably have the easiest schedule remaining, with a road date with Wake Forest (4-5), home games against Syracuse (4-4) and Idaho (1-8), then the season finale at home against Florida (4-4). If the ACC standings hold, Florida State would have a rematch with #7 Miami (7-1, 3-1; Coastal Division leaders) in the conference title game — which FSU just roasted 41-14 this past Saturday. Although Florida beat FSU in Tallahassee last season, this is a different 'Noles team that probably won't lose in Gainesville. And if the game against Miami is any indication of how good Florida State really is, the potential rematch with the 'Canes in the ACC title game will be no contest and the controversy will ensue if they beat out Oregon for the BCS title game, or vice-versa.

#4 Ohio State (9-0)

The Buckeyes have a couple of tune-up games — at Illinois (3-5) and at home against Indiana (3-5) — before the big game at #21 Michigan (6-2). But the Wolverines' loss to in-state rival Michigan State knocked some of the polish off of one of the biggest rivalry games in college football. However, it also added a little spice to the potential Big Ten championship game against the #22 Spartans (8-1, 5-0; Legends Division leader).

Like the three teams ahead of them, Ohio State has been playing so well as of late that it's hard to imagine them losing to anyone left on their schedule, even the good ones. If the Buckeyes end up winning out, it will create a logjam atop the BCS standings, and then what? We'll all be wishing the playoff was happening a year earlier.

#6 Baylor (7-0)

The Bears have the greatest chance of getting knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten with a brutal schedule the rest of the way. The silver lining is that the next two games are at home against #10 Oklahoma (7-1) and #15 Texas Tech (7-2). The bad news is that after that they go to #18 Oklahoma State (7-1) before finishing up on the road against TCU (3-6) and then back home to face Texas (6-2) in the season-ender.

Although Baylor leads the nation in scoring at nearly 64 points per game, the next three games are against teams in the top 26 in scoring defense. With Texas Tech losing to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in recent weeks, that game might not be as big of an obstacle as it seems. But the Sooners and Cowboys, and even Texas, pose a threat to the Bears' undefeated season. My gut feeling is they'll drop one of those games, most likely the tilt in Stillwater, and be left out in the cold in the BCS chase.

The two other undefeated teams remaining are #16 Fresno State (8-0) and #17 Northern Illinois (9-0). But, with all due respect, they are so far down the BCS list and have such relatively weak remaining schedules that they don't really factor into the conversation.

The bottom line is that it's more likely that there will be more than one or two undefeated teams than not, and the final year of the BCS era will create a ton of controversy regarding who gets left out of the championship game. My instincts tell me that Ohio State and Baylor have the greatest chance of getting knocked off by the end of the season, but that would still leave three undefeated teams at the top of the BCS heap.

It's clear that Alabama is the top team and will deserve to be in the title game if it goes undefeated — but who's to say that Oregon or Florida State don't clearly deserve to be the Tide's opponent in that game if they both remain unbeaten, or even if the other two somehow make it through unscathed? Maybe it will all play out in the end so that controversy is avoided, but I wouldn't count on that happening. After all, that's what the BCS's legacy will be — controversy.

Posted by Adam Russell at 1:33 PM | Comments (0)

November 1, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 9

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cincinnati @ Miami (+2½)

Andy Dalton and the Bengals exploded last Sunday, whipping the Jets 49-9 behind five Dalton touchdowns, including four to Marvin Jones. Now the 5-2 Bengals head to Sun Life Stadium to face the 3-4 Dolphins.

"We've all been 'Jonesin' for Andy to have a breakout game," Marvin Lewis said. "This time, Andy's hair wasn't the only thing that was brilliant.

"Even Pacman Jones had a touchdown. Then he taunted Rex Ryan and threatened Jets' receiver David Nelson. Funny, Nelson doesn't look like a stripper. Anyway, that's not what I want to see out of Pacman. Unlike his video game namesake, he doesn't chase ghosts, but he does collect skeletons, and keeps them in his closet."

The Dolphins blew a 14-point lead over the Patriots, eventually falling 27-17 after a second half dominated by home-standing New England.

"We got served in the second half," Ryan Tannehill said. "Then Mike Pouncey got served after the game. With a subpoena, that is. It's no coincidence that the Pouncey boys find themselves at the 'center' of the Aaron Hernandez case.

"We started 3-0 and have lost four in a row. I have to take most of the blame. Lately, that's the only thing I've been credited with."

It's Halloween. How can you not pick the team that wears black and orange? The home fans say "boo!" but the Bengals do the scaring. Tannehill throws 2 interceptions, and Cincy sacks him 4 times.

Bengals win, 22-16.

Kansas City @ Buffalo (+3)

The Chiefs remained undefeated, beating the upset-minded Browns 23-17 at Arrowhead Stadium last week. Kansas City is 8-0, the team's best start since 2003.

"The 2003 team started 9-0 that year under Dick Vermeil," Andy Reid said. "If you don't think that team was well-coached, you don't know Dick.

"Our eight wins have come at the expense of teams with a combined 20-41 record. I guess that's a nice way of saying the NFC East sucks."

The Bills fell to 3-5, last in the AFC East, after a 35-17 drubbing in New Orleans.

"The Chiefs may be undefeated," Doug Marrone said, "but we won't back down. This storied franchise is used to taking on the AFC's best, and beating them, as those four AFC championship banners attest. So, if we win, I just hope we don't play the NFC's best next, because we'll surely lose."

Is this what's known as a "trap game" for the Chiefs? It sure is. The fired-up Bills come after Alex Smith, and slow down Jamaal Charles. Dan Carpenter kicks four field goals, and the Bills pull off the upset.

Buffalo wins, 19-17.

Minnesota @ Dallas (-12)

The Cowboys blew a 10-point, fourth quarter lead in Detroit, losing 31-30 on Matthew Stafford's one-yard TD plunge with 12 seconds left. Stafford passed for 448 yards, including 329 to Calvin Johnson.

"It's official," Tony Romo said, "Dez Bryant can 'go off' just as well as Megatron. I'm sure Dez was just frustrated at being outgained by 257 yards by Johnson. That's a lot! Johnson's behavior speaks volume; Dez's speaks volumes.

"I know Dez is just passionate about the game, so I can't be angry with him. All he wants is the ball, and he got his wish, because I just gave him a pass."

The Vikings were overwhelmed 44-31 by the visiting Packers last Sunday night. Christian Ponder was ineffective, with only 193 yards through the air and no touchdowns.

"There's trade talk in Minnesota," Leslie Frazier said. "Thank goodness it doesn't involve Hershel Walker. That trade set the Vikings back years. And fans just can't seem to forget about it, especially during football season, when they're most likely to wear 'fleece.'"

"But the trade deadline passed and Adrian Peterson is still a Viking. People everywhere are happy. And Peterson does, in fact, have people everywhere."

Bryant catches eight passes for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns, a performance that screams "look at me!"

Dallas wins, 38-20.

Tennessee @ St. Louis (+3)

St. Louis' Jeff Fisher faces his former team as the Titans visit Edward Jones Stadium, where the Rams are 2-2 this year. Last Monday, St. Louis dropped a 14-9 decision to the NFC West-leading Seahawks.

"Kellen Clemens played a heck of a game," Fisher said. "I guess calling Brett Favre was not the greatest of ideas. If calling a former Packer great is the best way to motivate someone, then I should be speaking to Vince Lombardi.

"But who has time for a séance? The last time I sat around a table and held hands in the dark was with the NFL's Competition Committee. We call it a 'circle work.'"

Mike Munchak's Titans are 3-4, only two games behind the Colts in the AFC South. But inconsistent play has haunted Tennessee all year; Munchak hopes a bye week can help rectify some of the problems.

"Trust me," Munchak said, "I think of calling Favre almost every day. But I doubt he'd take my calls, which is the same thing I ran into with G.M.s when I tried to work a deal to trade Kenny Britt. Surprisingly, Kenny's not wanted in any state."

Tennessee wins, 16-12.

New Orleans @ NY Jets (+5½)

The Ryan twins face each other at MetLife Stadium as Rex, head coach of the Jets, welcomes brother Rob, defensive coordinator of the Saints.

"I'm proud of Rex's weight loss," Rob said. "He's not as large, but still in charge.

"I'm also proud of Rex's unselfish commitment to seeing the rules enforced properly. Far too many were getting away with 'illegal pushing.' Heck, even one of Rex's players, Santonio Holmes, admitted to doing it often as a youth."

The Saints whipped the Bills 35-17 to improve to 6-1, two games ahead of the Panthers in the NFC South. Drew Brees threw 5 touchdown passes, including two to Jimmy Graham.

"The Jets just gave up 5 touchdowns," Brees said. "And I just threw five of my own. It appears the 'Big Apple' will become the 'Big Easy,' at least for a day."

New Orleans wins, 27-24.

San Diego @ Washington (even)

The Redskins put up a fight in Denver before falling 38-21. Washington held a 21-7 lead early in the third quarter, but gave up three Peyton Manning touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.

"We had the Broncos reeling," Robert Griffin III said. "We just lacked the knockout blow. That's what happens when Brandon Meriweather doesn't play.

"But Brandon will be back against the Chargers. And he says instead of going for their heads, he's going to take out their knees. That seems to be the natural tendency of things in this terrible division known as the NFC East — everybody is 'aiming low.'"

The Chargers had a week 8 bye, and at 4-3, are third in the AFC West.

"What's the most offensive name in Washington?" Phillip Rivers said. "It's not 'Redskins,' it's 'Dexter Manley.' Manley called Troy Aikman a 'queer.' That will surely make the headlines. Fortunately for Manley, he can't read them."

"Our 4-3 record would be good for second in any other division in the AFC. And first in the NFC East. Now that's queer."

The rested Chargers win, 34-27.

Atlanta @ Carolina (-7½)

The Panthers are rolling after last Thursday's 31-13 win in Tampa, and have now won three in a row. Cam Newton and his teammates hope to beat the Falcons and keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South.

"The sky's the limit for this team," Newton said. "'The Sky's The Limit' was also the title of my father's most famous sermon. The title had nothing to do with reaching heaven, and had everything to do with the asking price for my college football services."

The Falcons were physically dominated in last week's 27-13 loss in Arizona. The defeat dropped the defending NFC South champs to 2-5.

"Is it still 'Breast Cancer Awareness Month?'" Mike Smith said. "If it's not, then what's all this talk about 'pink slips?'"

Carolina wins, 27-21.

Philadelphia @ Oakland (-2½)

Michael Vick re-injured his hamstring in the Eagles' 15-7 loss to the Giants last week. Vick said he heard his hamstring "pop" late in Sunday's game.

"Michael is definitely out for the Raiders game," Chip Kelly said. "Nick Foles has been cleared to play and will start. Matt Barkley will be the backup. Matt was 'BMOC' at Southern California. Here, he's 'DWTH' — 'disaster waiting to happen.' Barkley puts the 'USC' in 'suck.'

"Luckily, the NFC East race is wide open. I think it's safe to say the NFC East champion won't earn a bye, but will say 'bye,' likely in the first round."

Oakland, buoyed by Terrelle Pryor's 93-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage, knocked off the Steelers 21-18 in the Black Hole last week. Now 3-4, the Raiders welcome the Eagles and their chaotic quarterback situation.

"Pryor's run was the longest TD run ever by a quarterback," Dennis Allen said. "Terrelle barely got out of college without a 'record;' I can't say the same about his pro career.

"I've got a defensive coordinator named Jason Tarver who likes to give officials the finger. Apparently, our young defense isn't the only thing that's 'up and coming.' I don't buy Tarver's explanation that he was just honoring the late Bud Adams."

Philadelphia wins, 27-24.

Tampa Bay @ Seattle (-17)

The Buccaneers fell to 0-7 after last Thursday's 31-13 loss to the Panthers in Tampa. The 7-1 Seahawks, owners of the NFL's second-ranked defense, expect to light up the Bucs and their anemic offense.

"Hey," Greg Schiano said, "I'd much rather see my name in 'lights' than on a billboard.

"But I'm not giving up on the season. I'm just telling my guys to concentrate on the fundamentals. Likewise, many people are advising me to go 'back to school,' as well."

Seattle used a goal-line stand to thwart the motivated Rams 14-9 last Monday, and remained one game up on the 49ers in the NFC West.

"That was the 'stuff' of dreams," Pete Carroll said.

"Like Mike Glennon, Russell Wilson quarterbacked at North Carolina State. Glennon is 6'7," a good nine inches taller than Russell Wilson. However, it's Russell who stands head and shoulders above Glennon in talent.

Seattle wins, 31-6.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+2½)

The Browns nearly shocked the undefeated Chiefs last week, losing 23-17 at Arrowhead Stadium. Jason Campbell played well, throwing for 293 yards with 2 touchdown passes, one to Josh Gordon.

"Jason's been in the league for nine years," Rob Chudzinski said. "So he's very resilient, much like a familiar horror movie character. But this Jason lives for Sunday's, not Friday's."

The 3-4 Ravens sit second in the AFC North, albeit 2½ games behind the division-leading Bengals. After a bye week, Baltimore is healthy for the most part and ready for the stretch run.

"Don't forget," John Harbaugh said, "we're still the defending Super Bowl champs. That goes a long way, as does Joe Flacco's contract.

"We sure do miss Ray Lewis' motivational speeches. Now he's an ESPN analyst, so nothing's really changed. He's just talking out of the opposite end."

In the battle of quarterbacks, you have to give the edge to Flacco. Not because he's a Super Bowl champion, or a spokesman for McDonald's, or anything remotely special. He just doesn't have to face Terrell Suggs.

Baltimore wins, 20-13.

Pittsburgh @ New England (-7)

The 6-2 Patriots own a comfortable two-game lead in the AFC East as the 2-5 Steelers make a visit to Foxboro. New England is 4-0, but has yet to show the type of dominance expected of the three-time Super Bowl champions.

"The Red Sox' David Ortiz has been unstoppable at the plate in the World Series," Tom Brady said. "I've been anything but unstoppable. Whereas Ortiz is known as 'Big Papi,' I'm known as 'Big Floppy' to my fantasy owners.

"But at least Ben Roethlisberger still thinks I'm the 'best.' I'm not sure where Big Ben is going with this line of flattery, but I'm guessing it leads to a bathroom."

The Steelers lost to the Raiders 21-18 last week and are now 2-5, last in the AFC North.

"I'm running out of things to ban in the locker room," Mike Tomlin said. "Maybe coaching will be next."

New England wins, 28-24.

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3)

The Texans used a bye week to sort out the wreckage of 2-5 season, and need a win over the Colts to have an iota of a chance in the AFC South. Gary Kubiak named Case Keenum the starter over Matt Schaub.

"Matt was ready to go," Gary Kubiak said. "Some say I'm even more ready to go."

The Colts lead the AFC South with a 5-2 record, and are showing the confidence of a team with wins over Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver this season.

"We're giant killers," Andrew Luck said. "That's opposed to Giant killers, which isn't nearly as impressive."

Houston wins, 24-23.

Chicago @ Green Bay (-12)

The banged-up Packers won at Minnesota last week 44-31 and improved to 5-2. Aaron Rodgers threw for 285 yards and 2 touchdowns, both to Jordy Nelson.

"Randy Moss once famously made 'moon shine' at Lambeau Field," Rodgers said. "Similarly, Jordy is known as 'White Lightning.'"

The Bears are without Jay Cutler, who injured his groin in Chicago's 45-41 loss to the Redskins in Week 7. Josh McCown will take over at quarterback, and should the Bears win, they'll take over the lead in the NFC North.

"It's a huge game," Mark Trestman said. "Cutler's known for being crotchety; now he's got the injury to match."

Green Bay wins, 34-27.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:29 PM | Comments (0)