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September 30, 2013

Not So Fast Lane

Pat Haden didn't waste time in the early morning hours of last Sunday.

Following USC's 62-41 drubbing by Arizona State, he pulled Kiffin aside upon landing at Los Angeles International Airport and told Kiffin he was no longer the head coach of the Trojans.

Attendance was down. So were wins. And, despite the scholarship hits brought by the NCAA, the fans had seen enough of the Kiffin era to demand change. So Haden did just that.

My question is this: why now? Why not after last season?

The Trojans were the trendy pick to end the SEC's title run. They finished 7-5 and thus, were sent to represent the Pac-12 at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, where they faced a Georgia Tech team that was 6-7, but received a bowl bid since the seventh loss was in the ACC title game.

What followed might have been the worst overall bowl appearance in the history of college football. USC players trashed El Paso on Twitter. They trashed Georgia Tech before the game. They showed up ridiculously late to the Sheriff's Posse Dinner, so much so that Paul Johnson took his Yellow Jackets and angrily left.

How anyone could think Lane Kiffin had control of his team is absurdity at its finest.

The Trojans didn't show up for the game, either. Georgia Tech won easily, 21-7. The Trojan players brawled with each other in the team locker room following the loss.

Embarrassing? That doesn't even begin to describe things. The Trojan program was out of control. The players, not the coaches, were in charge and they weren't doing their school proud. Haden should've put a stop to it right then. He chose not to.

September's games proved that, nine months after the disaster in El Paso, Kiffin still had yet to assume control of his team. Whether it was Washington State's shocking 10-7 win to open the home slate, or Marquis Lee's remark of "Kiffin don't know" in reference to the players-only meeting earlier this month, Kiffin was not the man in charge of the program.

Now, instead of having a quality coach in charge, Pat Haden has handed the reins this season to Ed Orgeron. One look at his term at Ole Miss should give you a hint as to how things are going to go the rest of the season for USC.

Haden, known to be a good man who genuinely loves the school he represents, made an error in judgment. While this happens to everyone, the decision to not fire Kiffin months ago is still a puzzler. Kiffin's track record was not a great one by any means. He had left bridges scorched in Oakland, with former Raiders owner Al Davis hurling insults at him consistently. He had them burned in Knoxville, as well. During his one-year stint as head coach of Tennessee, Kiffin had committed numerous NCAA violations, attempted to pick fights with Urban Meyer and Steve Spurrier and drug the school through a miserable season before bailing on them for L.A.

Everywhere he's been, ugly, angry chaos has followed.

Kiffin won't be the only coach let go this season. Paul Pasqualoni has done miserably so far at UConn. Mack Brown's seat in Austin is practically charred. Bo Pelini better win and win big to gain any fan support back at Nebraska. There are others who are walking on edge this season.

However, Kiffin should've never been coach to begin with this season. And USC fans will have to suffer for two more months before a chance for order to be restored can happen.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 5:11 PM | Comments (0)

The Strasburg Plan Didn't Kill the Nats

I said it last October, when the Washington Nationals imploded in a division series Game 5 they had practically in the bank. And I'll say it again, John Feinstein be damned. (Only kidding, sir.) The Strasburg Plan had nothing to do with the Nats going no further than the division series last year. And it had nothing to do with them going nowhere but home when the regular season ended this past weekend.

I'm one of Davey Johnson's biggest admirers, but I think Johnson was wrong to suggest that while, yes, Feinstein is a little off in his analysis ("idiot" is the word Johnson actually used), nevertheless yes, the Nats would have bagged it last year if Stephen Strasburg hadn't been shut down for the sake of taking no chances with his surgically-repaired elbow.

It wasn't Strasburg who planted in his mates the idea that, once you get an early 6-0 lead in the deciding division series game, you step up to the plate trying to hit 6-run homers on every other swing, or you go out to the mound trying to strike everybody out on one pitch. Which is just what the St. Louis Cardinals refused to do, playing patiently, exposing the Nats' over-anxieties, and finally punching through against a gassed closer, even when they were down to their final strike.

It wasn't Strasburg who misinterpreted Drew Storen's blown Game 5 save on a third straight night's work with nothing left in the tank and went forth to sign up free agent Rafael Soriano, who'd stepped up big for the Yankees when they had to live 2012 without The Mariano thanks to injury.

That said, it wasn't exactly Soriano's fault the Nats pulled up way short this season. The man saved 42 games and was probably lucky to be looking at save opportunities in a few of those games. Unless,as the Washington Post‘s Adam Kilgore says, you're trying to argue that if Storen doesn't blow the save Soriano doesn't get the deal, and that Strasburg on the mound would have guaranteed the Nats going to the League Championship Series at least, perhaps because Storen wouldn't have had the chance to blow the save.

Let's see. Was it Strasburg, Soren, and Soriano who told this year's Nats to make a shambles of fundamental baseball execution early enough and often enough?

Was it the Triple-S Trio who told this year's Nats that they could manage very well without a lot of left-handed relief?

Was it any or all of the three who told Dan Haren to hold off showing his best stuff until he'd made a one-man disaster of himself for the season's first two months?

Was it any or all of them who imploded Danny Espinoza's career before their very eyes (or chipped a bone in his right wrist while he hit a buck fifty-eight — even as he played without having surgery on his barking rotator cuff) and otherwise fashioned a bench with only one portion (Steve Lombardozzi) worth his position in the second half? (Lombardozzi leads the Show in pinch hits this year.) Who told anyone who'd listen that they could live without Ross Detwiler for the final two or three months of the season?

Whom among the trio told Bryce Harper that making himself the reincarnation of Pistol Pete Reiser wouldn't matter a damn because outfield fences nowadays are a lot more forgiving than the old Ebbets Field concrete wall? Or told Harper, Jayson Werth, and Wilson Ramos (who won the regular catching job back in July) that they could hit the disabled list (or, in Harper's case, try playing through the pain) and not have to worry about the slack being picked up by … not a lot of people?

I don't remember either Strasburg, Soren, or Soriano telling their mates on April 12 they could batter Atlanta rook Julio Teheran into a 4-2 lead for themselves and then survive on two hits the rest of the night, before Ryan Zimmerman turned the should-have-been final out into a two-run error, setting the proverbial stage for Ramiro Pena to hit a two-run homer off Craig Stannen in the tenth that would go unanswered in the bottom.

I can't recall any of the threesome telling their mates on May 12 that a 1-0 lead with Gio Gonzalez throwing seven shutout would hold up with no effort, not even when Storen surrendered a tying run in the eighth, and that it would be okay for Kurt Suzuki (who looked great as a late-2012 addition, but couldn't hold the starting catching job this year) to try throwing out a third base thief, but succeed only in hitting Wellington Castro's bat, allowing the thief to send home the go-ahead run that held up.

You'd have to dig very hard to find any evidence any of the three told Harper to flinch on chasing down Gregor Blanco's liner toward right center on May 21. When Blanco swung, the Giants were down to their final out, but Harper's flinch let Buster Posey score the tying run. And Yunesky Maya was brought in to pitch the 10th. And Pablo Sandoval hit one five miles for a 4-2 Giants win. And Maya hasn't been seen in the Show since.

You'd have to dig harder to find Triple-S's handiwork in what happened against the Orioles 29 May in Camden Yards. None of the three told anyone it'd be just wonderful if the Nats could let the Orioles back into things after Ryan Zimmerman hit 3 homers in five innings and Jordan Zimmermann had a 6-2 lead. Zimmermann faced four in the sixth and all four scored. In due course Tyler Clippard surrendered a big bomb to Chris Davis and the Nats surrendered the ball game.

Don't get me started on June 27 against Arizona. Maybe Strasburg handed the Diamondbacks a two-all tie after Adam LaRoche staked him to a 2-0 lead, but nobody among the Triple-S boys told the Nats to go 0-for-6 with men in scoring position all game long, strand eight, and send the game to the extras in which Stammen surrendered the winning RBI single.

Strasburg didn't open up against the Miami Marlins on July 12 expecting to have his worst day of the season after the Nats staked him to an unusual 3-0 lead in the top of the first. But he had it in the bottom of the inning, surrendering five in the frame and leaving the game in the second. The Nats ended up with a 7-3 loss and that was only for openers.

Because on the next night, Haren threw six scoreless and the Nats actually had a 1-0 lead on Jose Fernandez. Strasburg and Storen didn't say a thing, surely, but Soriano left the wrong pitch heading for Giancarlo Stanton's wheelhouse in the ninth. The Nats had second and third with one out in the top of the 10th when Zimmerman and Scott Hairston struck out. Zimmerman wasn't finished, though: in the bottom, he threw one beyond LaRoche's zip code at first to start the winning rally, which ended when Ed Lucas beat a should-have-been double play ball.

And in every one of those games but one the Nats went in with at least an 80 percent win probability, with the one being a 75 percent.

Those were just the big symptoms of everything that really went wrong for this year's Nats. Did I mention that it happened while Stephen Strasburg wasn't shut down but while Drew Storen spent a big chunk of his season in the minors? And while the Nats normally gave Strasburg less than three runs to work with? While it looked like just about any Nats pitcher, never mind Strasburg, might have been excused for taking the mound thinking he had to pitch a shutout just to break even, at least until Werth, Harper, and Ramos were back and healthy again?

And you wonder why I think Davey Johnson deserved a better retirement send-off.

The best news is that the Nats still finish 2013 with a winning record, even if the Cardinals just made them look like a AA team while sweeping them out. They're on a 30-15 string as I write, but it wasn't enough to save them even a postseason nibble. They have nothing left to play for but pride when they finish the season against the Diamondbacks, who also have nothing but pride for which to play now.

There's something to be said about season-finishing pride rolling over to the following season. Even with a new manager.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

September 28, 2013

The Mariano, Once More Around the Park

The game meant nothing to the Yankees otherwise. They staggered out of the postseason picture one day earlier. These mostly old and mostly battered Yankees had nothing but will to get them far enough that they held onto postseason hopes by a frayed thread at best. Behind 4-0 to the Rays Thursday night in Yankee Stadium, a deficit that would hold up, there was only one reason for manager Joe Girardi to bring in his closer at all, never mind in the top of the eight.

He and his Yankees simply couldn't play their final home game of 2013 without allowing The Mariano to take one more curtain call doing what he's done so damn near-perfect for 19 major league seasons, every last one of them in the 'Stripes. If they had, there would have been riots in the Stadium and probably around two thirds of the Bronx, not to mention considerable portions of New York's other five boroughs.

Rivera himself admitted to being ambivalent about a Thursday night appearance after the sandmen from Tampa Bay put their postseason hope to sleep. He'd be there for the fans, but in his heart of hearts he really didn't like pitching when the game was meaningless. Until, of course, he got the call, in the eighth inning, when Dellis Betances looked as though he wouldn't get out of first and second, one out alive.

Every last drop of ambivalence drained from Rivera faster than the Yankee Stadium public address people could cue up the late Bob Sheppard's pre-recorded announcement of the man and Metallica's "Enter Sandman." Up the bullpen steps he skipped as soon as Girardi made the signal from the mound. The roar from the crowd probably began the moment The Mariano stepped off the bullpen rubber and strode toward the steps.

And even the Rays stood at the top of their dugout steps applauding as Rivera jogged in in his customary fashion, carrying his glove in his right hand, his head bowed ever so slightly, as though he couldn't bear to risk the change of a spike being tangled in the grass before he arrived at his office.

The man of the hour turned in something close to his vintage. He got Delmon Young to fly out to left on the first pitch, but he jerked himself out of a 3-1 hole with a called strike on Sam Fuld by getting Fuld to ground out right back to the box to end the eighth. He wrestled Jose Lobaton to 2-2 before Lobaton, too, bounced back to the box. Then, on ball one, Yunel Escobar popped out so high to Robinson Cano at second base it looked like it could have climbed an elevator shaft without touching any of the four shaft walls.

And as Cano grinned before starting the around-the-horn routine, fellow retiree-in-waiting Andy Pettitte and battered captain Derek Jeter both strode out toward the mound. Pettitte tapped his right forearm, the signal for a pitching change. Having cleared this move with the umpires earlier, Girardi wasn't about to let Rivera spend his final night in Yankee Stadium as the last man standing for a loss the Empire Emeritus‘s broke, busted, disgusted offense had little if any prayer of overthrowing.

Pettitte and Jeter reached the mound. It looked as though Jeter told Rivera, quietly but with an appreciative smile, "it's time to come out." And then The Mariano — this composed man who has never shown up another player, almost never let his emotions pour out so long as he was on or near the mound — fell into Pettitte's arms in tears.

The two pitchers stayed in that embrace for a couple of full minutes, Rivera's face buried in the hollow of Pettitte's shoulder, until Pettitte relinquished him for Jeter. The final three of the Core Four (Jorge Posada retired after the 2011 season, of course) looked at each other, and their smiles were smiles of sadness as much as appreciation. Something special was coming to an end in the south Bronx and they knew it. Something more than the World Series rings or the pennant races or even Rivera's stupefying postseason record. (His cumulative postseason stat line would be a regular season career year for any other relief pitcher.)

"I don't know how I got those last few guys out. I don't know what I was doing," The Mariano told reporters when the game ended. "Everything started hitting — all the flashbacks, everything that led to this moment ... I was just bombarded with emotions. I knew this was the last time [at Yankee Stadium]. Period."

Which was why, when most of the tumult had dissipated, he walked back out to the Stadium mound and scooped up a portion of its dirt for a keepsake.

"We've all grown up together," said Jeter, who came up the Yankee farm system with Rivera and Pettitte. "It's too bad that good things have to come to an end."

Matt Daley, a former Colorado Rockies reliever, who missed all of 2012 recuperating from rotator cuff surgery after the Yankees signed him to a minor league deal, can tell his grandchildren he got to relieve The Mariano on his final night's work in the south Bronx. And, to do it in fine style, pounding Ben Zobrist out for the side with a delicious, three-pitch, swinging strikeout.

Rivera might have retired in 2012 but for the torn ACL while shagging flies during practice that took him out for the season after he'd nailed five saves in April. "Put it down. Write it down in big letters. I'm not going down like this." Like Ted Williams way before him, signing up for one more tour after a lesser season by his lights, The Mariano intended to go out like a champion. And he will, though if you ask him he'd tell you going out like a champion means a trip to the postseason at least and a World Series ring at most. He's had a typical enough season on the mound, what with his 1.07 WHIP, his 2.15 ERA, and his 44 saves to date.

Off the mound, and it was his own idea entirely, he's traveled around the circuits making a point of meeting and greeting and thanking the people you never stop to think of first who produce baseball games — the stadium personnel, clubhouse workers — plus fans in each city, where they happened to apply, who were touched by illness, hardship, or tragedy. That's another and perhaps more precious way to go out like a champion.

He never once referred to himself making the game so special for nineteen years. He doesn't think that way. To him, going to the mound, slicing the opposition into quarters to save it for his mates, was his passion but also his job, and he typified the consummate professional without being ostentatious or obnoxious about it.

Like Sandy Koufax several generations earlier, he personified greatness without any sense of entitlement. An assassin on the mound and a gentleman everywhere else. Rivera thought nothing of offering helping hands or counsel to any pitcher who sought it, whether showing them the grip for his fabled cutter or showing them how to shake off the bad outings, to remember that the most important game in your baseball life was the next one you were going to pitch.

"I wish more people could talk to Mariano," Philadelphia pitcher Roy Halladay has said, "because he's probably one of the best things to ever happen to baseball."

Three decades after the fact, Bob Hendley, who got thatclose to throwing a no-hitter on the backside of Koufax's 1965 perfect game, received a package, a 1965 National League baseball inscribed "What a game!" and a handwritten note: "We had a moment, a night, a career. I hope life has been kind to you. Sandy." Prompting Hendley to reply, whenever he's asked about that game or the man to whom he fell, "It's no disgrace to get beat by class."

Three decades and more from now, those whose defeats were secured by the becalmed Panamania with the youthful eyes, the almost neon smile, the elegant delivery, and the unobstreperous manner before, during, and after yet another save, another title, will remember their humblings at The Mariano's hands. And they'll tell anyone asking likewise, no matter how anyone feels about the Yankees qua the Yankees, that it was no disgrace to get beat by class.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:36 PM | Comments (0)

September 27, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 4

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (+3)

The 1-2 Rams host the 2-1 49ers on Thursday Night Football in an NFC West showdown. The St. Louis defense will be tasked with defending the arms and legs of Colin Kaepernick.

"I've done my homework on Kaepernick," said linebacker James Lauriniatis, "and then some. I understand he was adopted. You know, my father made a living on the professional wrestling circuit as Road Warrior Animal, so he's known lots of guys whose parents hail from 'Parts Unknown.'

"Our defense is still learning. We certainly have youth on our side. The average age of our defense is 25. Ironically, though, the one piece this Rams' defense may be missing is a 'Youngblood.'"

The 49ers suffered their second straight loss, falling 27-7 to the visiting Colts last week. In those two losses, San Fran has been outscored 56-10.

"Obviously," Jim Harbaugh said, "we failed our field test. It's enough to drive a man to drink. And speaking of 'drinking and driving,' Aldon Smith is taking a leave of absence. For the 49ers' top sack artist, that's called doing a 'BAC dance.'

"But we're all frustrated. Kaepernick is especially frustrated. The read option may be dead. It's lost its novelty. The problem is, everybody can read it."

It's time for the 49ers to bounce back and impose their will, which is hard-nosed defense and an offense that keeps the opponent guessing. And the Rams, not to mention everyone, are guessing — is Kaepernick a good quarterback or not? Ask Harbaugh in public and he'll say "yes." Ask him in private, and the answer is not so definitive: "I guess."

San Fran survives a quick start from the fired up Rams and storms back for a 20-16 win.

Baltimore @ Buffalo (+3)

The Ravens improved to 2-1 with a 30-9 win over the Texans last week and are now tied with the Bengals atop the AFC North. Big plays on defense made up for an otherwise ordinary day from Joe Flacco and the offense.

"Most importantly," John Harbaugh said, "we won. Of equal importance, Jacoby Jones was not seriously injured by a champagne bottle tossed by a stripper. Finally, a stripper who makes it rain. She turned the tables of Jacoby, because this time, he's the one getting toasted. Heck, Flacco said he admired the lady's accuracy.

"But the bottom line is, you should never insult a woman, stripper or not. Pimpin' ain't easy, and neither is primpin'."

The Bills are 1-2 after a 27-20 loss last week to the Jets, as E.J. Manuel was sacked 8 times.

"That's eight times too many," Doug Marrone said. "You know, if a stripper was protected by our offensive line, there's no way she would have had time to throw a bottle."

The Ravens sack Manuel five times, including two by Terrell Suggs, who later names himself provost of Ball So Hard University, then awards himself an honorary degree from Montana First Orthopedic State University, or Mo Fo State.

Baltimore wins, 27-13.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (+5)

The Browns seemingly found a cure for their offensive woes, and apparently it was shipping Trent Richardson to the Colts for a 2014 first-round pick. Sans Richardson, the Browns piled up 409 yards of offense and beat the Vikings, 31-27.

"Trent just didn't fit into our plans for the future," Rob Chudzinski said. "Sure, he was a 233-pound beast; we called him 'The Burden'; tacklers called him 'The Load.' Now, we call him 'The Unload.'

"I'm not sure Brandon Weeden fits into our future, either. Unfortunately, his value is limited, so a trade may be out of the question. But to my knowledge, there's no rule against a raffle."

The Bengals pulled out a wild 34-30 win over Green Bay, winning on Terrence Newman's 58-yard fumble return. Now 2-1, Cincy heads to the Dawg Pound to face their AFC North rivals.

"We forced Aaron Rodgers into several errors," Marvin Lewis said, "so there's no reason to think we can't do the same to Brian Hoyer. See, I just used Rodger's name in the same sentence with Hoyer's. That's sure to rankle Rodgers.

"Don't get me wrong. Rodgers is great. There's nobody like him. Also, nobody likes him. Rumor has it that Rodgers ices down his arm after games, then tells his teammates what they did wrong. In the Packer locker room, they call that 'getting the cold shoulder.'"

Can Hoyer, who will start again on Sunday, duplicate his three-touchdown performance? If he does, there's a good chance the Browns will win, and a good chance Hoyer will be traded.

Cincinnati wins, 24-23.

Chicago @ Detroit (-3)

The Bears whipped the Steelers 40-23 last week, forcing five Steelers turnovers and sending Pittsburgh to its worst start in the Ben Roethlisberger era. At 3-0, the Bears are alone atop the NFC North, and they'll try to extend their lead with a win in Detroit.

"Jay Cutler has proved his leadership abilities," Mark Trestman said, "as well as his toughness. And what better place to prove that in Week 3 of the regular season. Okay, maybe the 2011 NFC Championship Game would have been a better place to do that.

"But Jay is fearless. He's challenged Ndamukong Suh … to a game of 'Operation.' In that game, if you touch a body part that Suh's violated on an opponent, the buzzer goes off."

The Lions left the nation's capitol last week with a tough 27-20 win over the Redskins. Matthew Stafford threw for 385 yards and two scores as Detroit moved to 2-1.

"This is the first time the Lions have beaten the Redskins in Washington since 1939," Stafford said. "That's another feather in my cap. A few more of those, and I'll be able to offend Native Americans everywhere."

Detroit wins, 31-30.

Seattle @ Houston (+3)

The Seahawks blasted the overmatched Jaguars 45-17 last week to improve to 3-0 on the season. Seattle now owns a two-game cushion over the rest of the NFC West.

"Give the Jaguars credit," Pete Carroll said. "They could have quit, but they didn't. Then the game started.

"Of course, there's always room for improvement. And my team is quite willing to learn. Much like some of the players on that 49ers team to our south, they're not afraid to 'seek help.'"

The Texans will face the NFL's top-ranked defense, one that surrenders an average of only 9 points per game.

"Coach Kubiak says we need more from our stars," Arian Foster said. "I think he may be talking about me. Not only do I take cash from coaches, I take hints."

Houston wins, 19-16.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+9½)

The Colts' face their first AFC South opponent when they travel to Everbank Stadium, where the 0-3 Jaguars await. Last week, Indy shocked the 49ers, 27-7, in San Francisco in their first game with new acquisition Trent Richardson.

"Trent's first carry as a Colt was a one-yard touchdown run," Andrew Luck said. "It was sweet. He lowered his shoulders, and raised his yards-per-rush average. Trent went practically untouched; if we can make sure that doesn't change, I'm sure we can get a full season out of him."

The Jaguars lost to the Seahawks in Seattle 45-17, overwhelmed on both sides of the ball by what many consider the NFL's best team.

"Hey, we held 'em under 50," Gus Bradley said. "Usually, that's what we say after a home game, when attendance figures are released."

Colts win, 27-21.

New York @ Kansas City (-5)

With last Thursday's 26-16 win in Philadelphia, the Chiefs are 3-0, and two of those wins have come against NFC East teams. On Sunday, they'll try to make it 3-0 as the Giants visit Arrowhead Stadium.

"Three wins over NFC East teams?" said Andy Reid. "That would have kept me in Philadelphia.

"Now, we know the Giants are hungry. They're winless, and their receivers are unhappy. Hakeem Nicks said he 'can't throw the ball to himself.' Of course, New York receivers aren't known for criticizing themselves. Heck, I think Plaxico Burress was the last to do so, back in 2008, when he 'blasted' himself."

The Giants were awful at Carolina last week, managing only 13 yards of offense in the first half in a 38-0 loss that dropped them to 0-3. Eli Manning was sacked seven times and threw his eighth interception of the season.

"I thought we were prepared," Tom Coughlin said. "For inspiration, we watched Lawrence Taylor's Showtime documentary before the game. Unfortunately, it was the Panthers with the 'runaway.'

"But drastic times call for drastic measures. That's why Eli is going in for elective neck fusion surgery. "

Kansas City wins, 27-24.

Pittsburgh @ Minnesota (+1)

The Steelers and Vikings meet in Wembley Stadium in the first of two NFL games in London this season in a battle of 0-3 teams. Pittsburgh turned the ball over five times, with two leading to touchdowns, in last week's 40-23 loss to the Bears.

"These two teams are in shambles," Ben Roethlisberger said. "Indeed, there is 'Anarchy in the U.K.'

"I'm excited, and not just because I just made a 'Sex Pistol' reference. I'm excited because there will be a new 'Big Ben' in London. Unfortunately, I'm a married man, so I won't be able to enjoy the city as a single man. To all of the birds in London who expected a hookup, there will be no union, Jack."

The Vikings are 0-3 and headed to London, where they hope to turn their fortunes around.

"We can't win at home," Leslie Frazier said. "We can't win on the road. Maybe a new continent is the change we need.

"Make no mistake. We're taking an airplane to London. I think it would be a very bad idea to put a team full of Vikings on a boat across the Atlantic."

Pittsburgh wins, 30-28.

Arizona @ Tampa Bay (-3)

Is Greg Schiano losing control in Tampa? The Bucs are 0-3, and tension is mounting for a team in dire need for a win.

"Do you see that vessel in the end zone of Raymond James Stadium?" Schiano said. "It's a 'dictator-ship.'

"I've decided to bench Josh Freeman. In his place, Mike Glennon will get the start. Darrelle Revis has his own island. Now, Josh has one of his own. It's called 'Maroon 5.'"

The Cardinals are reeling as well, now 1-2 after a 31-7 loss to the Saints last week. Carson Palmer threw two interceptions, and only has three touchdowns on the year.

"It's much too early to judge Carson," said Bruce Arians. "But just as a warning, I'd like to ask him, 'Where does a judge sit?' If he answers 'On the bench,' then I'll have made my point.

"Safety Rashad Johnson lost the top part of his left middle finger during the New Orleans game. It's an unfortunate injury, but on the bright side, anything that can make him more like Ronnie Lott is a good thing."

The Bucs and Cardinals have combined for one win this year. That's just slightly more than Johnson's damaged finger.

Glennon struggles against a solid Cardinals' defense, while Freeman roams the sidelines dreaming of a new job, maybe in Jacksonville.

Arizona wins, 17-16.

New York Jets @ Tennessee (-4)

New York is 2-1 after last week's 27-20 win over the Bills, and the Jets are all in with Geno Smith at quarterback. Although prone to occasional errors, Smith has made the right plays in crucial situations.

"Geno's already thrown six interceptions," Rex Ryan said, "and has one crucial fumble. That fumble is crucial because it wasn't a butt fumble.

"But with every mistake, he's learning. He should be a genius by now."

The Titans sit in a three-way tie atop the AFC South with the Colts and Texans.

"We plan to pressure Smith," said Titans defensive coordinator Jerry Gray. "Film study has revealed that Smith is quick to leave the pocket. He's got 'happy feet.' Surprisingly, though, that's not a turn-on to Ryan."

Tennessee wins, 19-17.

Philadelphia @ Denver (-10)

After a ten day rest, the 1-2 Eagles and head coach Chip Kelly now face the NFL's hottest team, Denver, led by the league's hottest quarterback, Peyton Manning.

"Manning is like a bottle of wine," Kelly said. "He gets better with age. And he also has a fragile neck."

Denver beat the Raiders 37-21 on Monday night to go to 3-0, tops in the AFC West. The Broncos are averaging 42 points per game, and Manning has thrown 12 touchdown passes.

"The Eagles have one of the worst pass defenses in the league," Manning said. "It's so bad, even Von Miller could 'pass' on them.

"Hopefully, Von will learn that there's a right way and a wrong way to do things. There's a difference between 'doctor's orders' and 'doctoring the order.'"

The Broncos keep the Eagles off balance with their running game, which, without a clear starter, is called 'running back by sub-committee.' The fast-paced Philly offense stays in it until the end.

Denver wins, 42-35.

Washington @ Oakland (-3)

Robert Griffin III and the Redskins take on Terrelle Pryor and the Raiders in the Black Hole. Pryor has played well and taken charge of a team desperate for leadership.

"It remains to be seen whether Terrelle is the long-term solution at quarterback," Dennis Allen said. "Terrelle played college ball at Ohio State, so, as one would expect, his time as the starter is strictly on a probationary basis."

The Redskins are winless after last week's 27-20 loss to the Lions, with two of the losses coming at home. An 0-4 start will almost certainly end any chance of Washington repeating as NFC East champions.

"Repeat?" Griffin said. "You can say that again. If I say it three times and tap my heels, will it take me back to last year?"

Sorry, RG 0-3, it doesn't. You're stuck in 2013, and you're stuck with Mike Shanahan, who lacks a brain.

Washington wins 27-24 over the Matt Flynn-led Raiders.

Dallas @ San Diego (+2)

At 2-1, the Cowboys hold the early lead in the NFC East over the struggling Giants, Redskin, and Eagles.

"Norv Turner will certainly have his eyes on this game," Tony Romo said. "He's made stops in both Dallas and San Diego, and so have the defenses he's faced."

"You probably heard that Dez Bryant was fined for making the 'throat slash' gesture against the Rams last week. I counseled Dez on the matter, and advised him that a simple wave to his mother would have sufficed."

San Diego wins, 28-24.

New England @ Atlanta (-1½)

It's crunch time already for the Falcons, who will fall to 1-3 if they don't beat the undefeated Patriots, led by Tom Brady and his squad of receivers he likes to call "The Childish Mistakes."

"I'm hoping Rob Gronkowski will return to the lineup," Brady said. "Despite not having played a snap this year, he leads the NFL in stiff arms.

"I've got my young receivers on short leashes, and even shorter patterns. Sunday night may be the right time to turn them loose. Don't believe me? You'll see. The Falcons will go 'ga ga' in the Georgia Dome."

New England wins, 31-28.

Miami @ New Orleans (-6½)

What's more surprising? The 3-0 Dolphins, or the presence of a defense in New Orleans?

"I'd say the bigger surprise," Sean Payton said, "is the defense is playing this well with their salary as their only monetary incentive."

The Saints' defenders get inside the head of Ryan Tannehill, leading him to mistakenly believe there's a bounty on his head. An overconfident Tannehill then throws two interceptions.

New Orleans wins, 31-20.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:29 PM | Comments (0)

Johnson Deserved a Better Farewell

The one thing his coming departure has in common with his previous departures as a major league manager is that most his players aren't in that big a hurry to see Davey Johnson leave the dugout.

Presented with a striking Tiffany crystal on his appreciation day in Washington Sunday, Johnson is about to finish his tenure on the Nationals' bridge by his choice — for the first time since he became a major league manager. The only part of the equation that isn't his choice is stepping down before October.

Maybe it should have been seen inevitable when the Nats fell as far out as 15 and a half games in the National League East and 9 and a half in the wild card standings. But the man who said in spring training that it was the World Series or bust simply couldn't conceive that it would be bust when he awoke September 24.

Sunday morning, he awoke with his Nats having a shot at moving to within three games of a postseason entry. By Sunday night, they'd split two with the Miami Marlins, but still had a shard of hope for Monday.

Except that the Pittsburgh Pirates got yanked into the postseason on the bat of Starling Marte hitting a tie-breaking solo bomb in the top of the ninth and Andrew McCutchen, the no-questions-asked face of the new Pirates, throwing out the potential tying Chicago Cubs run with two out in the bottom of the ninth.

And the Cincinnati Reds secured a postseason trip by beating the New York Mets in 10.

And the St. Louis Cardinals put bust to the Nats' 2013 Monday, in a game the Nats opened with a 2-1 lead, when Jayson Werth hit Adam Wainwright's early mistake over the left field fence with Denard Span (leadoff single) aboard. But rookie Tanner Roark served up a 2-run homer to Carlos Beltran to smash a 2-all tie in the fifth, Wainwright got stingier as the game got older, and the most the Nats could do once Wainweight yielded in the eighth with first and second and nobody out was a 1-run groundout off two Cardinal relievers.

It wasn't exactly deja vu all over again, not in calendar terms, but weren't those the same Cardinals, just about, who'd shoved them out of the postseason last year? When the Nats opened Game 5 of the division series with a 6-0 lead — battering Wainwright to get it, no less — and, from there, couldn't resist trying to hit 6-run homers in every at-bat or bag single-throw strikeouts on every pitch? When the Cardinals took one look at the Nats' sudden impatience and knew it was just a matter of when? Even though the Nats would get them down to their final strike anyway?

"We dug out own hole," Johnson told CSN Washington, summing up this season with a week remaining, "and we just couldn't dig out of it.”

Not that they didn't try once they'd fallen in. As of August 9, they stood at 54-60 to match that 15 and a half NL East deficit and that 9 and a half wild card deficit. Then they did what everyone thought they would have done in April or even May: winning 29 out of their next 40 games. Those were sweat bullets you saw in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati during that rip.

A rip that ended up with the Nats' hearts ripped out. And Johnson knew exactly what was to blame. He said it himself: this year's bullpen wasn't as efficient as last year's; this year's bench wasn't as productive; this year's offense was riddled with some injuries and some inconsistencies; and this year's pitching staff overall didn't have quite the depth of last year's.

Now Johnson manages out a string. So much for a little psychic revenge, so much for doing their part to turn the National League Central into a to-the-wire dogfight, what with the Pirates and the Reds each a mere two games out of first as the Nats were eliminated. Rookie Michael Wacha got to within an out of no-hitting them Tuesday, a high chopper over the mound and a wide throw fracturing the rook's jewel. And Shelby Miller, the better-heralded among the Cardinals' rooks, beat them Wednesday to win his 15th and finish sweeping the Johnson's charges.

The Nats finish with three against the Arizona Diamondbacks, already eliminated. There goes the fun.

"I wish it didn't have to end. I appreciate the time we've had with him, but I wish we had more time,” said pitcher Gio Gonzalez. "It has been so much fun being around him.”

Adam LaRoche lamented that the Nats couldn't give Johnson a farewell gift of October. Bryce Harper, whose injury issues this season had a considerable amount to do with the Nats' early-and-often faltering, still can't forget the phone call he got when going through a rough spell in the minors.

"I'll always appreciate the faith he had in me as a 19-year-old player,” Harper said while lingering in the locker room long after Monday's game was in the books. "He called me up at a time when I was hitting [.243] in the minors. He believed in me. I'll never forget that.”

Johnson has always been a forward thinker (he was damn near the first manager to make a computer part of the tools of his trade), a players' manager and a front office headache, at least until he came to the Nats by way of the front office. The only time it might have gotten testy was when batting instructor Rick Eckstein was executed in July.

He opened this spring training the way he always preferred: loose and uncluttered. He always did prefer the swift April start and wanted his players fresh for that. This time, alas, what he got was a slightly altered roster and, after a sleek enough 7-2 season start, a collapse of fundamental baseball right under his very nose.

He hoped that the better Nats suffering the injury bug could continue to yank the team back up whenever they were healthy.

But he couldn't do a thing about Stephen Strasburg having to pitch 16 games with two or fewer runs to work with (in those games, Strasburg kept hitters to a .191 batting average and a 2.55 on base percentage) while getting a little careless in in the seven in which he had 3-5 runs to work with. (.264 BA; .345 OBP.)

He couldn't get past second baseman Danny Espinoza's career literally imploding before his very eyes. He couldn't get past his fifth starter, Dan Haren, turning into a one-man wrecking crew who wrecked his own team more than the other team most of the way. He couldn't get past Drew Storen's collapse. (It didn't help that a gassed Storen probably didn't belong in Game 5 to begin with, and that the front office decided to bring aboard Rafael Soriano anyway.) He couldn't get past the reality that over a third of his club suddenly seemed lost for executing the little things that make the big things easier.

And he might have begun hammering into Bryce Harper's head the idea that you don't have to have intimate relations with every outfield fence plank to make plays in centerfield, but his retirement may not necessarily guarantee his successor will finish the job.

With extremely few exceptions, Johnson never departed any managerial job without his players' respect or affection, or both. This is the man who once had a love-hate relationship with Darryl Strawberry, a player who didn't seem to love himself enough or able to stop hating himself enough.

Strawberry seethed publicly when Johnson double-switched him out of Game 6 of the 1986 World Series and almost got into a fistfight with the manager over his leaving the bench in the ninth inning of another game. Yet when Johnson was canned as the Mets' manager following a slightly sub-.500 1990 start, Strawberry was so distraught he threatened to not even think about a new Mets contract offer at that season's end.

For the first time in his managerial career Johnson's leaving under his own volition. Sort of. Nobody's pinking him over one or another team slump, one or another disagreement with the front office, one or another bitten-off curse while the front office makes hash of a team he likes, but you can understand Thomas Boswell noting the Nats aren't exactly in the market for a manager past Social Security age.

Johnson hoped he'd retire with one more postseason under his belt at minimum and a second World Series ring at maximum. He may have to settle for a plaque in Cooperstown.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:07 AM | Comments (0)

September 25, 2013

Hoops Preview: Preparing to Gather

I know that college football is all the rage across campus at the moment. However, the clock continues to tick toward the tipoff to the 2013-2014 college hoops season. As always, the early part of this sport's campaign throws some very intriguing non-conference matchups our way, along with some that might surprise as we go.

Last year, I looked into most of the traditional-style early season tournaments and produced some headlines I found intriguing. Well, no better time to build on tradition than now. Over the next few weeks, I'll peek into these "destination" events, where obtaining a trophy in November (or December) could be the first step to raising the trophy come April.

So, where better to start than the earliest of the brackets? Nowhere, really. It's actually a pretty good place to start ... (ahem) ... as I was saying:

Puerto Rico Tip-Off (Nov. 21, 22, & 24)

Obvious Team to Watch — The Michigan Wolverines were a mere 6 points short of an NCAA title five months ago. There is a lot of talent coming back from that national runner-up squad. There's also a ton of talent that moved on up to the NBA, namely Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. With only one junior and one senior on the roster, the team will still have to rely on youth to keep them in contender mode. But John Beilein has shown that he can mold young minds pretty quickly.

Under the Radar Team to Watch — If there has been a phrase to trademark for Florida State under coach Leonard Hamilton, it has to be "Dare to Overachieve." Four of the last five seasons, the Seminoles have won at least 10 or more ACC conference games. But last season was a dip in the trend. Even with Michael Snaer, the most recent version of "Mr. Clutch," on the roster, this group was extremely young. This season, the ratio of under-to-upperclassmen is 3:1. How fast these kids buy into Hamilton's defensive tenacity will tell us a lot about the upcoming season.

Best Early Matchup — Long Beach State vs. Michigan. I was tempted to go with Florida State and VCU, due to the fascinating contrast of tempo and defensive styles. The contrast that I find intriguing in my choice leans toward experience. I already alluded to the two upperclassmen for the Wolverines. The 49ers tout four underclassmen, making this a fairly tested squad. And don't give the Maize and Blue an automatic edge on the bench. Dan Monson might not have lived up to expectations at Minnesota, but he practically rebuilt the foundation for Gonzaga's program.

Best Potential Final — VCU vs. Georgetown. I'll say right now that I would really like to see if the Rams can get their revenge on Michigan for carving them like an Easter ham this past Spring. Some are saying that this could be Shaka Smart's most talented team yet, and that might mean bad news for the Eastern Seaboard. One such opponent from just up the road could be the Hoyas. John Thompson III doesn't have Otto Porter to carry the load, but most of the supporting cast will be back, hoping to create their own legacies. Plus, the chess match of the Princeton offense against the HAVOC defense should be one to watch.

Charleston Classic (Nov. 21, 22, & 24)

Obvious Team to Watch — There might be more recognizable names in this field, but the best team very well could be New Mexico. Despite the loss of star guard Tony Snell, the reigning Mountain West champs bring back the other foursome from the starting lineup, including guard Kendall Williams. The bigger question concerns the team's new head coach. Can Craig Neal fill the shoes vacated by the departed Steve Alford? This will be Neal's chance to shine after having Alford's back for so long.

Under the Radar Team to Watch — I live in Upper Midwest, so, thanks to the Big Ten Network, I get to catch a few games that feature squads from less than marquee schools. As last season came to a close, Iowa seemed to improve by the most leaps and bounds of any team in-conference. Right behind them was Nebraska. The Cornhuskers competed hard for first-year coach Tim Miles, beating tourney-bound Minnesota and possibly snatching the victory that may have kept Iowa OUT of the tournament. Now, with three seniors gone and only two on this squad, Miles hopes to stamp his seal on a program that could be trending upward if they can sneak in a win or two in South Carolina.

Best Early Matchup — Davidson vs. Georgia. Like Georgetown, Georgia bring back a lot of pieces from last year's team. And like Georgetown, Georgia will have to seek a new on-court presence to replace the impact of former star Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Someone will need to step up for coach Mark Fox to get off the 15-17 snide he's encountered the last two seasons. On the flip side, it seems that all the Wildcats do is find one player to fill the gap a former one has left behind. Bob McKillop has to replace the production of Jake Cohen, Nik Cochran, and J.P. Kuhlman. However, to a man that has made NIT or NCAA appearances in 8 of the last 12 seasons, turnover doesn't seem to be an issue.

Best Potential Final — Davidson vs. New Mexico. Don't adjust your screen settings. This could be your final in Charleston. I already discussed Georgia on the bottom half of the draw. Temple is in rebuilding mode after losing all but two players from last year's team (including dynamic scorer Khalif Wyatt). Clemson may still be trying to reconfigure themselves under fourth-year coach Brad Brownell. And that leaves the door wide open for the Wildcats.

On the top side of the bracket, Neal might be the freshest of the head coaches, but he's got the best assemblage of talent. Plus, he's been in the Alford coaching system for almost a decade. We'll just have to see what wrinkles the new coach can use to improve the talent on the floor.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:00 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 28

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth took the lead for good with 93 laps left and held of Kyle Busch to win the Sylvania 300, his second consecutive win. He leads Busch by 14 in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"The No. 20 Toyota was awesome," Kenseth said. "If anyone needs to size me for a champion's pair of slacks, I wear a 'Husky.'"

2. Kyle Busch — Busch finished second to Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Matt Kenseth for the second straight race, this time at New Hampshire. It was Busch's series-best 13th top-five of the year, and he trails Kenseth by 14 in the points standings.

"In the JGR '1-2 Punch,'" Busch said, "I must be the '2.' Joe Gibbs brings the 'punch' to the Chase. Michael Waltrip brings the 'punchline.'"

3. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson took fourth at Loudon, and remained within striking distance of Matt Kenseth in the points standings. Johnson is third, 18 behind Kenseth.

"Matt won the traditional lobster claws trophy for the victory," Johnson said. "His two victories to start the Chase, however, have everyone else in a 'pinch.'"

4. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished ninth in the Sylvania 300, his 14th top-10 of the year. He is fourth in the points standings, 36 behind Matt Kenseth.

"It looks like Matt Kenseth is the man to beat," Edwards said. "And I used to be the man to do it."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished a disappointing 20th at New Hampshire on a day dominated by Joe Gibbs Racing. He is now sixth in the points standings, a distant 39 out of first.

"Did you hear?" Harvick said. "Danica Patrick will be hosting the American Country Awards in Las Vegas on December 10th. One thing is for sure — she won't be winning anything."

6. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished third in the Sylvania 300, posting his best finish since a win at Michigan in June. He is fifth in the points standings, 38 out of first.

"The Richmond scandal is still casting a dark shadow over NASCAR," Biffle said. "I know there's one on the front of my car, but the real 'splitters' are Michael Waltrip Racing sponsors."

7. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer took 17th in the Sylvania 300. He fell to tenth in the points standings and trails Matt Kenseth by 48.

"NAPA dropped sponsorship of Michael Waltrip Racing," Bowyer said. "It's no longer 'NAPA Know-How;' it's 'NAPA No More.'

"Now 5-Hour Energy may be ending their sponsorship. If MWR loses any more sponsors, out cars will be drawing 'blank' stares next year."

8. Kurt Busch — Busch finished 13th as bother Kyle took the runner-up spot, while Matt Kenseth won his second Chase race. Kurt is seventh in the points standings, 40 out of first.

"We're the only single-car team in the Chase," Busch said. "But really, who needs teammates? That's not me talking; that's a quote from Tony Stewart, right after I decided to join Stewart-Haas."

9. Ryan Newman — Newman started on the pole at New Hampshire and led two laps before handling issues led to a 16th-place finish. He is ninth in the points standings, 47 out of first.

"I set a record for speed in qualifying," Newman said, "with a lap of 136.497 miles per hour. That's one of the reasons they call me 'Rocketman.' The other reason: because with me, there will be a re-entry."

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt posted his 16th top-10 result of the year with a sixth at New Hampshire. He trails Matt Kenseth by 62 in the points standings.

"You could say I'm a long shot to win the Sprint Cup title," Earnhardt said. "And that's okay with the people of Junior Nation, because they like any shot."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:06 AM | Comments (0)

September 24, 2013

NFL Week 3 Report

This is an NFL column, but we're starting with a different football league.

College Football

NCAA Football scheduling is a joke. Here are some scores from Saturday:

* Florida St 54, Bethune-Cookman 6
* Washington 56, Idaho St 0
* Miami 77, Savannah St 7
* Ohio St 76, Florida A&M 0
* Baylor 70, UL-Monroe 7
* Louisville 72, FIU 0

Those are ranked teams that humiliated FCS schools or beat up on bottom-end FBS teams. What do football fans gain from Miami vs. Savannah State? Did Baylor prove anything by burning down Louisiana-Monroe?

* Virginia 49, VMI 0
* Iowa 59, Western Michigan 3
* Mississippi St 62, Troy 7

Here, we've got teams from power conferences posting 50-point wins over badly outmatched opponents. I know some of the greatest games in NCAA history involve massive upsets, with a team like Troy rising up to defeat a Mississippi State. But the day when strength of schedule plays a real role in bowl selection just can't come soon enough. Scheduling cupcakes should actively lower a team's chances to earn a prestigious postseason game.

Thursday Night Game

Kansas City Chiefs 26, Philadelphia Eagles 16

* Even in victory, Alex Smith was not impressive on Thursday night. He didn't throw downfield, he turned his most dangerous receiver into a decoy, and he looked to run if his first read wasn't open. Rotoworld called it "a comically conservative performance ... [Smith is] as weak-armed as ever and allergic to risk." It worked in this game because Jamaal Charles is a stud and the Eagles committed 5 turnovers. Despite the last two weeks, I think the 49ers are happier with Colin Kaepernick.

* The pundits have turned on Chip Kelly's offense. Deion Sanders after the game: "How many times do you understand somebody rushes for 260 yards, but you have the ball almost 20 minutes less than your opponent? That is so hard to do, you have no idea." The 2013 Eagles offense reminds me a little of the 1990 Buffalo offense that lost time of possession 2:1 in Super Bowl XXV, but with more turnovers. Philadelphia's 24:25 average time of possession ranks last in the league.

* Michael Irvin: "Without the big play ... it's hard for Michael Vick to methodically drive this team the length of the field every time. I just don't think he's accurate enough." I think that's right. Vick is a big-play QB. He's got that rocket arm, and he'll hit DeSean Jackson downfield for 50. He's still one of the fastest guys on the field, and he'll take off for 40 yards. But the Eagles aren't built to put together 10-play drives, to grind out first downs when the big play isn't there.

Sunday's Games

Cleveland Browns 31, Minnesota Vikings 27

* On Wednesday, the Browns traded last year's first-round draft pick, third overall choice Trent Richardson. It was a clear indication that Cleveland is giving up on the season, tanking for a high draft pick, and betraying its fans. Except that minus Richardson, the Browns rushed for a season-high 103 yards and won their first game of the season.

* Actually, the trade probably did indicate that Cleveland is giving up on the season, but everyone knew two weeks ago that the team wasn't going to contend this year. The Browns were bad in 2012, and they didn't like this year's draft class, so they traded all their picks for higher ones next year. Trading Richardson — who last season ranked 18th in rushing yards and averaged 3.56 yards per carry — was consistent with their approach, and they got reasonable value for a player who hasn't shown anything exceptional at the pro level. Yahoo's Andy Behrens noted, "We're now 311 carries into [Richardson's] NFL career, and the guy only has two runs of over 20 yards ... If you ignore the brand-name, you'd have to say the Browns did well to get a first-round pick."

* Through three games, tight end Jordan Cameron has 20 catches for 229 yards and 4 touchdowns. His 66 receiving yards in Week 3 was a season-low.

* Adrian Peterson's stated goal this season is 2,500 rushing yards. He's currently on pace for 1,499. He'll have to average 170.7 per game to meet his goal.

Cincinnati Bengals 34, Green Bay Packers 30

* This was a weird game, with 7 fumbles, 5 recovered by the defense, and 1 run back for the game-winning touchdown. But can we talk about the Green Bay pass defense? Every quarterback they've faced has thrown for multiple touchdowns and a passer rating over 100. Colin Kaepernick looked like a miracle-worker against the Packers, but a disaster in Weeks 2 and 3.

Kaepernick vs. GB: 404 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 129.4 rating
Kaepernick, other: 277 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT, 32.2 rating

The Packers have a bye in Week 4, but they need Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward back soon, hopefully before the Week 5 matchup with Calvin Johnson and the Lions.

* Last year, the Patriots, Packers, and Broncos all started the season 1-2. The NFC North battle with Chicago could be tense, but don't give up on Green Bay.

Carolina Panthers 38, New York Giants 0

* When a QB drops back to pass, there are five essential outcomes: completion, scramble, incompletion, sack, or interception. Eli Manning dropped back 31 times against Carolina; here's the breakdown:

12 completions (out of 31 dropbacks)
1 scramble
10 incompletions
7 sacks
1 interception

This was the first time since 2009 that Eli has been sacked more than four times in a game. Last year, his 3.4% sack percentage led the NFL.

Detroit 27, Washington 20

* This was the best Robert Griffin III has looked all season, but he made two critical mistakes. In the second quarter, Washington had a first down inside the red zone. With everyone covered, RG3 rolled out to his right. Rather than just throwing the ball away, he held on way too long and threw into traffic. The pass was intercepted, and Griffin took a hard hit — two bad outcomes on one play. Later, Griffin scrambled for a 21-yard gain, but slid head-first, meaning the ball was live when he fumbled and Detroit recovered.

* Griffin did look better, and Washington converted more third downs in Week 3 than in the previous two games combined. But the offense only generated 13 points. The defense scored a touchdown, Alfred Morris broke a 30-yard run, a kickoff out of bounds set up a field goal, and there was another field goal at the end with Detroit in a prevent defense. That's not a productive day.

* Washington's awful defense is poised to challenge some all-time records on the list of worst defenses. Ryan Kerrigan is genuinely good, but everyone around him is terrible.

Tennessee Titans 20, San Diego Chargers 17

* Kenny Britt was targeted five times in this game, but he didn't catch any of them, and he sat out the game-winning drive. Maybe Britt will realize his potential in the future, but I think we can write him off for the remainder of 2013. He's not a valuable asset on the field, or on anyone's fantasy team.

* With :20 left, Jake Locker connected on a 34-yard, 3rd-and-10 Hail Mary to Justin Hunter. Locker is off to a nice-ish start in 2013.

Baltimore Ravens 30, Houston Texans 9

* The Texans were my preseason Super Bowl pick, so this score surprised me. I went back and watched the first three quarters to see how it happened, and Houston didn't look bad. In fact, the Texans controlled most of the first half. But they kept kicking field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, and there were two critical turnaround plays: an interception return for a touchdown, and a punt return for a touchdown. In the first half, Baltimore gained only 65 yards, but scored 17 points.

* Two years ago, I called out Dan Dierdorf for praising Shane Lechler right before he gave up a punt return TD by out-kicking his coverage. Dan has learned his lesson (though probably not from my column). On Sunday, with Greg Gumbel going into ecstasies about how Lechler "has made a career" out of pinning opponents deep — the opposite is true; Lechler is the worst punter in NFL history at pinning opponents deep — Dierdorf cautioned that Lechler sometimes out-kicks the coverage, leaving returners in the open field and no one within 15 yards of them. Sure enough, Lechler produced a bomb, and when Tandon Doss caught it, no one was within 15 yards. Doss ran it back 83 yards for a game-breaking touchdown.

* Newer readers may think I'm exagerrating when I say Lechler is the worst punter in NFL history at pinning opponents deep. I'm not; this is a statistical fact. He has led the NFL in touchbacks six times, basically every other year of his career. He averages 11 touchbacks per season, by far the most in the NFL. Since the start of Lechler's career, the Buccaneers are next-worst, with an average of 8. The difference between Lechler and 31st place is equal to the difference between 31st and the best in the league (Atlanta, 5). 14% of his punts become touchbacks; the next-worst is Tennessee, 10.2%. Lechler's career ratio of punts down inside the 20-yard line (333) to touchbacks (144) is 2.31, the worst in NFL history. Since Lechler joined the league, Green Bay ranks 31st, 2.78. Not only is Lechler the worst at keeping his kicks out of the end zone, he's the worst by a lot.

Anyway, props to Dierdorf for predicting the big return, and a call for Gumbel to correct himself in the future.

* The Texans don't look like a Super Bowl contender right now, but I'm not giving up on them as the best team in the AFC South. The Ravens are tough in Baltimore, and the game was closer than the score implies. On the season, the Texans have 69 first downs, compared to just 44 for their opponents. They have 1,165 yards, vs. 747 allowed. They're averaging 4.9 yards per rush and allowing just 3.3. The biggest problems are their -3 turnover differential and their 4 return TDs allowed. This team is not going to average a -1 turnover margin per game (it was +12 last year), and no team gives up a return TD every week. Things will even out, and Houston will win about 10 games. The next two are tough (Seahawks and 49ers), but they've still got the Raiders, Cardinals, and two freebies against Jacksonville.

* X-rays came back negative on Andre Johnson's bruised shin, but he had an MRI on Monday. If Johnson misses time or isn't 100%, I think the biggest beneficiary in fantasy is tight end Owen Daniels. Rookie sensation DeAndre Hopkins will see tighter coverage if Johnson is out, but Daniels will become Matt Schaub's security blanket and favorite target.

* Perhaps the biggest frustration with replacement refs last year concerned how long it took them to make decisions. John Parry reminded fans of that in the third quarter. At 2:51 Eastern time, Baltimore ran a play, a 23-yard completion to Torrey Smith. At 2:52, Texans coach Gary Kubiak threw the challenge flag. At 2:55, Parry announced that the call was reversed. But his crew mis-spotted the ball, Parry returned to the sideline, and play finally resumed at 3:01, ten minutes between plays.

* If replacement officials had done exactly the same thing, the announcers would have declared it the greatest travesty in the history of sport, and Linda Cohn would have had a meltdown in the Bristol studio. It's been a year since the league agreed to terms with more experienced referees, and I'm glad they're back on the field. But while I agree that the replacement refs were subpar, I still have a really big problem with the way mistakes were treated last season, like the "real" refs never do the same thing. They make mistakes like that all the time.

* Bernard Pierce played well for the Ravens at the end of last season, well enough that I cautioned fantasy owners about drafting Ray Rice. But Pierce has not been effective this season. He's carried 52 times for 144 yards, a 2.8 average that is more than two yards below his average last year (4.9 on 108 carries). He hasn't been over 3.0 in any game this season, and he looks slow.

Dallas Cowboys 31, St. Louis Rams 7

* In the last two weeks, the Rams have trailed at halftime by a combined score of 41-3.

* In 2011, DeMarco Murray rushed for 253 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. On Sunday, 175 and a TD, plus 28 receiving yards. I like Michael Irvin's take on Murray: just convince him that every opponent is the Rams.

* Biggest factors for Dallas: commitment to and success with Murray and the ground game, plus third-down defense and pass rush. The Cowboys sacked Sam Bradford six times, and the Rams went 1/13 on third downs. They also went 3/6 on fourth downs, which partially makes up for it (three first downs!) but kind of makes it worse (three turnovers).

New Orleans Saints 31, Arizona Cardinals 7

* Jimmy Graham is an unstoppable monster. I don't have him in any fantasy leagues, and he just kills everyone at tight end. It's especially frustrating because Graham doesn't block and probably shouldn't be considered a tight end. He plays like a wide receiver who just happens to be 6'7"and 265 lbs. But man, what a weapon.

* Last year, the Saints averaged 28:59 time of possession. Through three games, they're up to 34:26. That's a huge difference.

* The Cardinals' first drive went 11 plays, 75 yards, and a touchdown. They punted the next eight times in a row, then threw interceptions on each of their last two possessions.

New England Patriots 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

* Rookie WRs Kenbrell Thompkins (2 TDs) and Aaron Dobson (7 rec, 52 yds) finally showed up, and New England got its first easy win of the season. Tampa Bay turned the ball over on downs four times.

* In every game this season, Josh Freeman has a completion percentage under 50% and a passer rating under 70. He needs to turn things around, fast. He's not getting a lot of support from anyone right now.

Miami Dolphins 27, Atlanta Falcons 23

* This was a big win for the Dolphins, but I'm still concerned about their offense. Ryan Tannehill got sacked 5 times against Atlanta, and he's gone down 14 times already this season. The league average is about 2 per game. Lamar Miller broke a 49-yard run this weekend, but his other 7 carries produced just 13 yards. If those trends — too many sacks, unproductive runs — continue, Miami won't be able to sustain drives.

* I noted in preseason that the Falcons' "September schedule is brutal, so don't lose faith if they start 2-2." Atlanta is 1-2. It's okay. This is a good team.

New York Jets 27, Buffalo Bills 20

* The Jets had as many penalties as first downs (20), and they won. They sacked E.J. Manuel 8 times.

* Five Bills starters left the game with injuries. Three merit particular attention. Defensive end Alex Carrington is out for the year with a torn quad tendon. Leodis McKelvin, a starting cornerback and maybe the best punt returner in the league, left in the first quarter with a hamstring injury. His replacement, Justin Rogers, got torched, and McKelvin's absence may have been the difference in a close game. It sounds like C.J. Spiller is fine, and he expects to play in Week 4.

* Jets fans cheered for Carrington when he was carted off, but they initially booed and assumed he was faking an injury. Something similar happened in the Thursday night game in Philadelphia. No one wants players faking injuries to stop the clock or disrupt an opposing offense, but I'd like us all to stop booing when there's a player on the ground. Carrington's out there waiting for the cart, and fans are booing him. That has to make you feel ashamed afterward, right?

Seattle Seahawks 45, Jacksonville Jaguars 17

* The NFL's version of Ohio State vs. Florida A&M.

Indianapolis Colts 27, San Francisco 49ers 7

* I forget which analyst I heard predict a 49ers hangover from their loss in Seattle last week, but whoever it was, good call. Marshall Faulk said after the game, "They looked like they were still up in Seattle getting punched around."

* The Aldon Smith drama can't have helped the situation. Smith will take an indefinite leave of absence, reportedly about a month, to undergo rehab. Here's wishing him success.

* Patrick Willis left Sunday's game with a groin injury. He's scheduled for an MRI this week. Vernon Davis didn't play in Week 3, and as of this writing his status for Week 4 remains unclear.

* In the first half, Colin Kaepernick completed two passes to Anquan Boldin, and none to anyone else. I think Boldin is to Kaepernick as Julian Edelman is to Tom Brady: the only receiver he really trusts right now.

* The Niners gained more yards in Week 1 than in the last two games combined. They also had a special teams meltdown on Sunday, starting six of 11 drives inside their own 15-yard line.

* The Colts played Kaepernick sort of the same way Seattle did. They mirrored the offensive "pocket" with a defensive pocket, keeping Kaepernick from scrambling and allowing the second-level defenders to focus on coverage. With Davis out of the lineup, you work hard to contain Boldin, and there's no one else to throw to.

* Did the Colts just trade next year's first-round draft pick for a short-yardage specialist? Because Ahmad Bradshaw looks like a more explosive runner than Trent Richardson. In 2012, Bradshaw rushed for 1,015 yards, with a 4.59 average. Richardson rushed for 950 yards with a 3.56 average. Which one of these guys do you want handling the ball?

Chicago Bears 40, Pittsburgh Steelers 23

* This was the 10th time since the start of the 2012 season that the Bears returned an interception for a touchdown (h/t NFL.com). Ten times in 19 games. Wow.

* Tony Dungy, former Steeler: "Pittsburgh, I think they're in really, really big trouble."

* The Steelers have 35 offensive drives this year. They break down like this: 4 touchdowns, 4 field goals, 10 turnovers (1 on downs), 16 punts (11 three-and-out), 1 end of game. Ten turnovers and 11 three-and-outs. That's 60% of their offensive possessions that are just total failures. Last season, Pittsburgh ranked 2nd in the NFL in time of possession (32:12). This year, they rank 29th (26:16). It's only been three games, but that's remarkable, a 6-minute drop in average time of possession.

* The Steeler defense has yet to generate any takeaways, and the team is -9 in turnovers, tied for last in the NFL.

* Cris Collinsworth loved Jay Cutler throwing his shoulder into a defender instead of sliding. I think it was his favorite thing since Brett Favre's illegal forward pass from beyond the line of scrimmage. But if Robert Griffin III had done the same thing, wouldn't we be hearing about the unnecessary risk of injury, or how if he slid feet-first he could avoid a critical fumble? Michele Tafoya seemed awfully excited about it, too, so that her interview with Major Wright was basically just breathless questions about how awesome Cutler is. Wright didn't seem impressed, but he obviously doesn't understand what kind of impact this had on the Bears' sideline.

* Henry Melton left this game with a torn ACL, and he's out for the season. Big loss for Chicago.

Monday Night Football

Denver Broncos 37, Oakland Raiders 21

* I thought the Manning Passing Academy was in Louisiana.

* Peyton Manning is 37, and he's still the best player in the league. Jon Gruden calls him the Sheriff, because he comes into opposing stadiums and lays down the law. Mike Tirico called him the Surgeon, because he's so precise and he puts on a clinic. But hearing Steve Young and Trent Dilfer, Peyton's not anything as crude as a sheriff, or as cold and dispassionate as a surgeon. He's an artist, a visionary, a living legend whose genius no one can fully understand or replicate. Have you ever heard a music aficionado try to explain how no one plays a Bach concerto quite like Joshua Bell, or an art expert explaining what sets Monet apart from the other Impressionists? That was the reaction to Manning's performance.

I'm not making fun of Young and Dilfer, because I kind of agree with them. Peyton has changed what's expected from the quarterback position, and whenever the league seems to catch up, he somehow stays a step ahead.

* The NFL obviously does not take concussions seriously. It institutes ridiculous rules that (1) make it impossible to play defense and (2) encourage season-ending knee injuries, but Terrelle Pryor pretty obviously gets knocked unconscious, and then plays two more downs before anyone checks to see if he has a concussion. And surprise, surprise: yes, he does. We don't need dramatic rule changes, we just need better enforcement — any enforcement, really — of the procedures that supposedly are in place.

* ESPN's cast of thousands on Monday night is totally out of hand. They covered this game with Trey Wingo, Mike Ditka, Cris Carter, Tom Jackson, Chris Berman (in absentia), Keyshawn Johnson (first contestant eliminated from "Dancing With the Stars"), Suzy Kolber, Steve Young, Trent Dilfer, Ray Lewis, Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Lisa Salters. That's 4-6 studio analysts and 7 people onsite to cover the game. I like Young and Dilfer, but I would love to see ESPN cut down to 3 people in the stadium.

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Top 10

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Chicago Bears
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Green Bay Packers
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. New England Patriots

I didn't lower Miami because of Cameron Wake's injury (MCL sprain, out 2-3 weeks), or Chicago because of Melton's, but I probably should have.

Bottom Three

30. Washington Redskins
31. Oakland Raiders
32. Jacksonville Jaguars

Washington plays at Oakland this week. Someone's 0 must go.

Week 4

Game of the Week

Seahawks at Texans
1:00 pm Eastern, FOX

Patriots at Falcons is obvious, but both those teams have substantial home field advantage, and I think Atlanta takes it. Dolphins at Saints on Monday night is a good one, too, but this is the game I'm most interested in.

The Texans came into this season feeling like they were a Super Bowl contender, and it hasn't looked that way so far. The Seahawks have looked incredible, but mostly at home. Last season, they went 8-0 in Seattle and 3-5 on the road. How will they handle a road game against a good team that's starting to get desperate?

Upset of the Week

The Bears are 3-point underdogs in Detroit, and that seems really weird to me, but picking 3-0 Chicago hardly counts as an upset. Instead, I'll take the Dolphins to win in New Orleans on Monday night. If Miami can make the 2013 Saints look like the 2012 Saints, this is a winnable game. Create a couple turnovers, don't commit any, hit a few big plays. It almost worked for Tampa Bay in Week 2, and the Dolphins are a lot better than Tampa.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:33 PM | Comments (0)

The Red Sox, Raised From the Dead

A year ago, the Red Sox were playing out a disheartening string, just hoping to finish the season with whatever was left of their dignity. They played under the lash of a front office who'd become something like lost souls, and a manager whose idea of quelling the gases remaining from that stupefying September 2011 collapse was to light matches.

Today, the Red Sox sit, stand, scamper, and strut as the American League East champions. And one of the keys was shown by pitcher Ryan Dempster, in the middle of the champagne-spraying clubhouse celebration, after they nailed the division on the arm of Jon Lester's 100th career win.

"This is an unbelievable group of guys here," Dempster told ESPN's Gordon Edes. "At the end of the season, if it was over, I wouldn't be disappointed one bit. I've never had so much fun playing with a group of guys."

Not that these Red Sox want to call it over at the end of the regular season. They've got a bigger destination in their plans if they can do it. "This year, every day, we did it on the field," said majority owner John Henry. "[Former manager Terry Francona] used to say if we had nine Dustin Pedroias, we'd be champions. This year, I felt like we had 25."

Jake Peavy told Edes that the day he arrived, in a trade deadline deal with the Chicago White Sox, the first Red Sox he bumped into was catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia — who told him the Red Sox were going to the World Series. "Push 'play,' pal," were the catcher's words as Peavy quoted them. "If you want to come along, push 'play.'"

Oh, what a difference for Lester, too. Last year, Bobby Valentine left him in to take an unconscionable 11-run, 9-hit 22 July beating from the Toronto Blue Jays, with nine of those runs surrendered in the first two innings. It shoved him further toward a lost season. This year, he's pitched better than respectably (a reasonable 1.27 WHIP; an ERA comfortably below the American League average) and with a postseason shot in the bargain.

The whole team? How does a team batting average of .276 and on-base percentage of .349 strike you? (Not to mention a team average of .274 with men on base and an OPS of .800 with men on?) of How does a team ERA of 3.74 and a team WHIP of 1.29 strike you?

Team president Larry Lucchino had this much to say for it all: "On the whole, there's also a lot of maturity on this team, a lot of leadership that comes from unlikely sources. So I'd say the looseness of a Dempster contributes, the fiery focus that Gomes contributes, to the maturity that John Farrell and his entire coaching staff brings. Just a blend of a lot of important characteristics.

"I think it's a validation of [general manager] Ben [Cherington]. Absolutely," Lucchino continued. "Last year was his rookie year as GM. I think he learned a lot from that and didn't miss a beat this year. The team he assembled was sensational. And I take great satisfaction in the blending of all the elements of the organization — ownership, the business side, the baseball side. There was a kind of team feeling we had that maybe got lost along the way."

Lost along the way? The Red Sox brass overruled Cherington after the 2011 collapse and Terry Francona's get-while-the-getting's-good departure and brought in Valentine over Cherington's choice, the man the Chicago Cubs ultimately hired, Dale Sveum.

Then they sat back, sometimes in horror, sometimes in bewilderment, often in ignorance, as injuries piled up while Valentine lived up to his longtime reputation and detonated one after another clubhouse bomb making it difficult to impossible for those Red Sox to play without looking over their shoulders, like abused children cowering in wonder of what their insane parents might wreak next.

Some people have to learn the hard way. And when the Red Sox brass figured out Cherington might actually know what he was doing, they sat back and let him have his head. And what did he do? He merely swung the big deal of the century, or so it seemed, freeing up a ton and a half of payroll to enable him to do what he really thought he should do: augment the best of the Red Sox veterans with pieces that weren't exactly top of the line but weren't exactly losers, either.

Cherington also got to dump Valentine and bring aboard Farrell, who knew a lot more about the Red Sox's innards from having been Francona's pitching coach when they won two World Series in the Aughts. Farrell's now a possible runaway American League Manager of the Year. Cherington brought aboard such pieces as Gomes, David Ross, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara, Stephen Drew, Joel Hanrahan, and Brock Holt, too.

Oh, how it paid off. Especially Uehara. When Hanrahan and then Andrew Bailey went down with injuries, Uehara stepped up as a lights-out closer and then some. (How does a 1.14 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP strike you, not to mention a 12.4 strikeouts-through-nine rate?) Then, come Friday night, he nailed down the save and the East with a dazzling strikeout of Brett Lawrie. He may be the best relief pitcher in the American League this season — at age 38. He's certainly got one vote from a man who's been the best in the business since the Clinton Administration.

"He's just going at people. He's not messing around, not pitching around hitters," says The Mariano himself. "He's going at people right away. That's the meaning of a closer." That's pretty damn good for the guy Cherington picked up last winter hoping he'd be the perfect seventh-inning relief option.

Then there's Victorino. He merely played right field like a center fielder, turning in the best performance out there Red Sox Nation had seen since the heyday of Dwight Evans, and swung a pretty solid bat while he was at it. Until he got a little too banged up, that is. The latest: a jammed thumb. He's still been hitting a small ton through it, but you have to wonder. Even if he refuses to.

Reworking his bench, fortifying his bullpen, letting his regulars and his starting pitchers be themselves (and getting a potential Comeback Player of the Year in John Lackey), and bringing aboard a manager who didn't know the meaning of the term put out the fire with gasoline, Cherington could be the Executive of the Year next to Farrell's Manager of the Year.

Farrell came to spring training asking only one thing of his players: "Win." Red Sox Nation probably asked only one thing of Farrell: "Anything but last year's poisonings." He braced his players and worked with them, himself and his coaching staff. It encouraged even veterans in slumps to seek out the right coaches and get some adjustments, swiftly enough.

It's paid off in a Red Sox team that never lost more than three straight, opened the season 11-4, and showed a team having the time of their lives while laying the AL East to waste. Farrell's the seventh Red Sox manager to take the team to the postseason in his first season at the bridge. And he's probably the one among the seven who really had to do it the hard way. He had to restore accountability and professionalism to the players and he had to do it without reminding them even once of the manager who'd throw them into the middle of a pit of poisonous snakes at the slightest mistake, the merest injury, the most minuscule misread.

Farrell proved adroit at shifting players struggling in one role toward another where they wouldn't embarrass themselves or the team. When Dempster struggled further as a starter, Farrell moved him to the bullpen, in which role he once collected 85 saves as a Cub closer. There was no mutiny. There wasn't even a promise to drill the next suspected user of actual or alleged performance enhancing substances.

David Ortiz and Mike Napoli look to be hanging up 100 RBI seasons each. Pedroia could end up with 200 hits and 90+ RBI, not too shabby for an early-in-the-order guy. Clay Buchholz managed to work around his injuries and still stand undefeated, looking like an elite pitcher (1.51 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 14 starts) when the Red Sox really needed it. A lot of men had some injury issues but the team didn't let themselves collapse over them.

Farrell didn't leave injured players to twist under any hint that their health issues equaled lack of heart. And, perhaps most significantly, he provided just enough cool that Lackey — bedeviled by shoulder issues since signing a big deal in 2011, and missing all of last season recuperating — revived himself into something just about equal to what he'd been for all those splendid Angels seasons. The ones that began with him winning Game 7 of the 2002 World Series.

Lackey merely pitched the Red Sox to the clinch of at least a postseason berth, and with a complete game at that, the night before Lester pitched them to the division clinch. Lackey's come a long enough way from being a viable candidate for Public Enemy Number One.

And how satisfying could it have been for Farrell that his charges clinched the East at the expense of the team he'd just managed for two years in a testy enough situation? Everything he tried and failed to foster on the Blue Jays he succeeded in fostering with the Red Sox. His Toronto successor, the prodigal John Gibbons (who managed the Jays the four years before Farrell took a crack at it), is playing out an injury-bedeviled string exacerbated by starting pitching troubles. Not the way the Jays expected the season to go after reaping big from the Miami fire sale last winter.

Put it this way: As Farrell began a pre-game news conference Thursday, Ortiz blasted in to satirize his own 2011 outburst over a scorekeeper. "I'm just [bleeping] with you all," he cracked. His manager grinned. They'd just lost two straight to the Orioles but were on the threshold of clinching first a postseason berth at all and, the night after, the AL East.

'13's an extremely lucky number for the Red Sox. So far.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:41 AM | Comments (0)

September 23, 2013

NCAA Needs to Revamp "Extra Benefits" Restrictions

It’s time for the madness to stop in regard to NCAA violations concerning student-athletes receiving money and other concessions from outside sources. It seems like once a month a story comes out about some current or former player being investigated for something illegal according to NCAA rules: Johnny Manziel getting paid for signing autographs, the entire Oklahoma State program for all kinds of improper benefits, and now Arian Foster admitting he accepted money during his time at Tennessee.

Of course Manziel was cleared of any wrongdoing, the OSU situation is in the early stages of investigation, and Foster’s admission could lead to trouble for the Vols’ program down the line. But the fact that these stories have dominated the college football headlines for the past couple of months shows that either the NCAA is watching closer than ever, or the players simply don’t care about the rules.

I make that last statement not because I think college football players are rogues and renegades who have no disregard for the laws set forth by the governing body of intercollegiate sports, but because I think they don’t believe some of what they are doing is all that bad and that any consequences resulting from their actions don’t often impact them directly. A notable exception is Reggie Bush having to vacate his Heisman Trophy several years after his playing days at Southern Cal were over, but Bush, the NCAA and everyone else in the universe know that he won the trophy, regardless of what the record book says. That’s why there needs to be some small yet impactful changes to the rules.

NCAA President Mark Emmert said recently that paying student-athletes is out of the question, which I tend to agree with. However, what can be done in lieu of stipends and salaries is relaxing the restrictions on some of the so-called Extra Benefits. Currently, a player can’t even accept a cheap fast food meal from someone other than his parents, and even that is iffy. I experienced this ridiculous rule first-hand when I was in college. I ran into one of the players from my school at a local fast food joint. He was there with his son and I was with mine, and I asked him if I could buy him a burger just to help him out a little. To his credit, he declined and told me that it would be an NCAA violation if he accepted. I said, “Really? For a two-dollar hamburger?” Yep, that’s the rule.

One of the Extra Benefits that could be taken off of the prohibited list includes the aforementioned meals, up to a certain amount. I agree that players shouldn’t be allowed to be wined and dined on lobster and New York strip, but if a classmate wants to buy his favorite linebacker a double cheeseburger – that would be acceptable. Set the cap at $10 or $15, which isn’t a whole lot. One can barely eat at said fast food joint for under $10.

Another one is the antiquated “allowing a player use of a phone to make free long distance calls.” In today’s cell phone age, pretty much everyone has free long distance. So if a player bums a phone off of one of his buddies to call his mom eight states away because he left his phone at home or it went through the wash, it shouldn’t be that big of a deal. The caveat could be purpose of use. If the player is using his friend’s cell phone as cover for calling an agent, then that would be a no-no.

The other one that could be tweaked or dropped altogether is a little more controversial is allowing the use of the player’s name, picture or appearance to promote sales or use of a commercial product or service. This also could be allowed with several stipulations, such as a ceiling on compensation and limiting the type of business for which a player could be a spokesperson. For example, Johnny Manziel gets enough exposure being on network and cable TV nearly every weekend and doesn’t need to be peddling soft drinks or shaving cream. But if a local business wants to get a player from the hometown school to do a radio spot or be in a newspaper ad, that should be OK, if the business doesn’t offer or provide compensation beyond, say, the cost of the ad and it’s not a nationally recognized corporation. I think it would be just fine to hear on the radio during a game, “Hi, this is Billy Joe Smith, quarterback for State U. If you’re having car troubles, take it to Dave’s Auto Repair next to campus. That’s where I go when my 1963 Dodge pickup breaks down.” You get the point.

The final thing that could use a major overhaul is how the NCAA doles out penalties for violations. In some cases, if it can be proven to be a systemic problem such as with recruiting, the current program should be punished for its wrongdoings. But if a single player (and generally it’s a former player) gets caught violating a rule, then the player should have to pay the price, regardless of where he is in life. And the penalty should reflect the infraction; like if a player inappropriately accepted a thousand dollars while in school, his penalty should be to pay the university twice that which he accepted. It’s been said a thousand times before by a thousand other people, but punishing kids in the program today for what someone did four years ago is completely unfair. That would be like grounding my younger son for something his older brother did when he was in high school. Asinine, right?

The NCAA says it is looking at closing the economic gap between larger and smaller schools to create a more even playing field. Why not start by leveling things out for student-athletes who cannot enjoy some of the amenities other students who don’t have the “athlete” tag can? The changes that I described above aren’t earth-shattering, and they won’t change the landscape of college sports forever, but they would be a good start in eliminating some of the petty violations and truly punish those responsible for transgressing the law.

Posted by Adam Russell at 6:28 PM | Comments (0)

The Dodgers Take a Victory Swim

The home team doesn't like watching the visitors clinch a title in the home team's house. But concerning the Los Angeles Dodgers' pool party to celebrate clinching the National League West in Arizona, a few observations:

1) There was a point during the season when the Dodgers had hit rock bottom, or close enough, while the Diamondbacks were hitting the high notes and the high standings. It isn't exactly out of the bounds of reason to suggest that, on the assumption that the Dodgers had a resurrection in them, which wasn't an assumption many were willing to make at that point in time, there could be nothing sweeter than to finish it at the Diamondbacks' expense. Especially considering...

2) The Brawl-Star Game of June 11. You remember, surely. Zack Greinke caught Cody Ross with a pitch quite by accident when the game was scoreless, and Joe Kubel followed up by hitting one over the right field fence, both in the fifth inning. Bottom of the sixth, who knew why, Ian Kennedy zipped one into Yasiel Puig's snoot, and only a fool or a Diamondbacks fan believed it wasn't a purpose pitch. Well, now. The rook shook it off, took his base, and Andre Ethier stepped up next to hit one not too far from where Kubel's blast landed. Greinke exacted revenge the right way, when he threw a not-too-hard one at Miguel Montero's back opening the seventh. (Sidebar: Puig batted cleanup for the Dodgers that night; Montero batted likewise for the Snakes. If you're going to answer a drill on your cleanup man, Greinke did it the right way, waiting for theirs.) The benches cleared on that one but that was about all, other than the warnings from the umps to both sides.

But in the bottom, Kennedy threw one marked for Greinke's coconut, warnings be damned, and Greinke was probably lucky he only caught it in the shoulder. The benches cleared again. Including a few rounds between men with whom you could have fielded half a 1980s all-star team, Mark McGwire (Dodgers coach), Alan Trammell (Diamondbacks coach), Kirk Gibson (Diamondbacks manager) and Don Mattingly (Dodgers manager).

3) The Dodgers at that point were sapped with injuries. They went on to win the Brawl-Star Game, 5-3, but sat 7.5 games out of first place. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks must have forgotten that Greinke himself was barely back from the disabled list, having gotten there early in the season when the San Diego Padres' Carlos Quentin charged the mound after Greinke — who wasn't even thinking about throwing at someone to open an inning in a one-run game on a full-count pitch by putting the potential tying run on base — caught Quentin on the bicep. Greinke suffered a broken collarbone in the melee, and there were those concerned genuinely for whether losing him meant losing the Dodgers' season before it had, really, gotten underway in earnest.

4) Until 21 July, the Diamondbacks had spent the majority of the season at the top of the NL West. Why, they'd even unload Kennedy, once a 21-game winner for them, on the Padres at the non-waiver trade deadline, thanks to his 5.23 ERA in 21 starts for the Snakes. On which day the Dodgers managed to scratch back to the top of the NL West, with a 2.5 game lead over the Diamondbacks. From July 21-31, the Snakes went 5-5, while the Dodgers went 8-1 in the same stretch. Since July 31? The Dodgers have held first place and fatted that calf at just about every turn, going 31-16 including a staggering 10-game winning streak (August 7-17). They even had one stretch along the way in which they were a transdimensional 42-8.

5) A couple of times the Dodgers looked as though they might risk blowing key ground even as they got their, ahem, water wings back in earnest. They had a pair of four-game losing streaks and, from September 13 until Thursday night, were 4-9. Some thought the grind of trying to keep their hard-earned lead despite a few too many key injuries wore them down just enough. Including Hanley Ramirez limited to just two games in the past week with a barking back.

But come Thursday night he yanked the Dodgers onto that balky back. He blasted a mammoth 3-run homer off Wade Miley to open the scoring and put the Dodgers up 3-0; the Snakes slithered back into the game at Ricky Nolasco's expense, but Ramirez hit one solo four rows up the left center field seats to tie it at 6 in the seventh. Then A.J. Ellis hit the first pitch of the top of the eight (off Josh Collmenter) over the left field fence, Brian Wilson and Kenley Jensen made it hold up, and the West was won the hard way. For Ramirez, it had to be plentiful satisfaction in a season he began on the disabled list, having missed the first two months recovering from surgery after tearing thumb ligaments on a play in the World Baseball Classic title game.

6) Imagine manager Mattingly's feeling today. His May opened with an eight game losing streak that caused calls for his head on a plate. Then he gets Puig as a June callup, Puig becomes must-see baseball for most of the time since, the Dodgers continue figuring out ways to win through the injuries and a few inconsistencies (notably the bullpen at one point), and he's gone from execution eve to a postseason journey.

7) Let's remember, too, that in April the Diamondbacks asked a group of Dodger fans sitting behind the plate to change their shirts or change their seats. The fans were wearing Dodgers shirts. (Officially and as a team, the Dodgers don't do that sort of thing in Dodger Stadium, by the way. Neither do their historically hated rival San Francisco Giants.) Not to mention the headhuntings of Puig and Greinke.

And, it turns out, the Diamondbacks — knowing there was an excellent chance of the Dodgers clinching the division the Snakes had owned for much of the season in the Snakes' pit — even asked the Dodgers not to celebrate the clinching on their field. Not even George Steinbrenner asked the enemy for that. In fact, when the Red Sox finished their surrealistic comeback American League Championship Series conquest in Yankee Stadium, The Boss said, "They earned it. Let them have their fun." I don't think the Diamondbacks would enjoy being seen as having slightly less sportsmanship than the late, notorious Yankee Reaper.

8) The Dodgers found their own way to heed the Diamondback's request. Other than the customary mobbing around the infield, the Dodgers didn't celebrate on the Diamondbacks' field. They had some champagne and dancing in the clubhouse. Then, they scampered across the field to the pool behind the right field fence. "For me," said pitcher Clayton Kershaw, he with the Koufaxian, league-leading 1.94 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, "if they were celebrating at our home field, they would have the right to do whatever they wanted."

Quite a difference from Diamondbacks pitcher Willie Bloomquist: "I think it's tired and disrespectful. It's surprising because they have a lot of veteran guys on that team that I thought were classier than that. But there's a fine line between going overboard at someone else's place and doing that, I think. But what are we going to do about it? There's not much we can do about it now. They've clinched the division this year, but if that's how they're going to act and be classless, that's their gig, that's their clubhouse. I just think it's disrespectful and classless."

9) Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times kind of nailed the entire hoopla down to the proverbial brass tack: "If the Diamondbacks are really going to get their panties in a bunch over this, then I have two suggestions: 1) Don't build a pool in your ballpark, and 2) don't let the other team clinch on your field." So did Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon McCarthy, proving that Bloomquist's wasn't exactly the entire team's party line: "Celebrating is fun. I don't care how and where you do it. Only thing to care about is what we need to do to celebrate in our pool next year."

10) Arizona team president Derrick Hall put it this way: "I could call it disrespectful and classless, but they don't have a beautiful pool at their old park and must have really wanted to see what one was like."

11) Say I: The Diamondbacks ought to look before they leap. The pool that counts just might be empty. The Dodgers have some beautiful things in their old and still beautiful ballpark, too. Twenty-two pennants and six World Series trophies, to name a few of those things. Surely the Diamondbacks must really want to see what that many flags and trophies might resemble at the same franchise address.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:07 PM | Comments (0)

September 19, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 3

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Kansas City @ Philadelphia (-3½)

Andy Reid returns to Philadelphia as head coach of the 2-0 Chiefs to face the 1-1 Eagles and Chip Kelly, the man who replaced him. And he's eager to pin a loss on his old team.

"This time," Reid said, "I'd like nothing more than to be chased out of town by an angry mob.

"How about that Philly offense? For the sake of their defense, maybe they need to slow things down a bit. Much like its breath, the Eagles' defense can't catch a defender, either.

"If I was coach, and I'm not, my solution would be to fire the defensive coordinator and replace him with the offensive line coach. It's making those types of decisions that have put me where I am today. That's in K.C."

The Eagles fell to the visiting Chargers 33-30 in Philadelphia last week, preventing a 2-0 Philly start, as well as preventing Kelly from being anointed a deity by overzealous Eagles' fan.

"Amen," said Kelly. "I'm no god. I'm no savior. I'm certainly no preacher. A preacher shows up every Sunday."

If anyone knows how to beat the Eagles, it's Reid. He did it 12 times last year. But the 13th time is the charm.

Alex Smith out-duels Michael Vick, and the Chiefs leave town with a 27-24 win. After the game, Reid is carried off the field in triumph by players from both teams.

Green Bay @ Cincinnati (-2½)

The Packers bounced back from their opening loss to the 49ers with a dominant 38-20 win over the Redskins. Aaron Rodgers lit up the Redskins defense for 480 yards and 4 touchdowns.

"There were some local Native American groups protesting the Redskins name," Rodgers said. "I think I did my part for their cause, because nobody would want to call themselves a 'Redskin' after that.

"I'm sure the Bengals' defense won't be as porous as the Redskins,' which has more holes than Shanahan's reasoning.

'And it's never easy playing in 'The Jungle.' You know, they play Guns 'N Roses 'Welcome to the Jungle' all the time there. Of course, that song has little meaning to me, because I was only 3 when it was released. I guess I'm 'dating myself,' which, according to Greg Jennings, is to be expected from someone who loves himself as much as me."

The Bengals beat the Steelers 20-10 on Monday, paced by two touchdowns from rookie Giovani Bernard.

"Giovani could be the secret to our season," Marvin Lewis said. "He is fast and elusive. If you looked up 'scat back' in the dictionary, you'd find a picture of Giovano. If you looked it up on the Internet, you'd find something completely different."

Green Bay wins, 26-24.

St. Louis @ Dallas (-4)

Despite a big game from Dez Bryant, the Cowboys lost 17-16 in Kansas City and old rival Andy Reid last week at Arrowhead Stadium. On Sunday, Sam Bradford and the Rams visit looking for the upset.

"Dez is an Oklahoma State alumni," Tony Romo said. "In light of the tales of sex, drugs, and money surfacing there, I can totally understand Dez's seamless transition to the pros. I honestly can't believe he left college early. His game obviously wasn't the only thing modeled after Michael Irvin."

The Rams are 1-1 after last week's 31-24 loss in Atlanta. Julio Jones had a field day against the Rams; Jeff Fisher knows Bryant presents similar matchup problems.

"Obviously," Fisher said, "we'll have to 'cheat' Bryant's way. I'd like to quote an Oklahoma State recruiter and say to Dez, 'I can promise that you'll see double-teams.' I think that should get his attention."

The Rams are a team on the rise, but their defense, much like Bryant's diploma, still needs work.

Bryant overpowers the Rams' defensive backfield, and posts 120 yards and a touchdown. Dallas wins, 31-23.

San Diego @ Tennessee (-3)

The Chargers stunned the Eagles 33-30 at Lincoln Financial Field last week, led by 419 yards passing and 3 touchdowns from Philip Rivers, all to Eddie Royal.

"No one gave us a chance at Philadelphia," Philip Rivers said. "Fans at Lincoln Financial Field were so shocked, they bolted for the exits as soon as Nick Novak's field goal cleared the crossbar."

The Titans blew a late lead against the Texans and eventually lost 30-24 in overtime to their AFC South rival.

"We had some mental mistakes," Mike Munchak said. "One was me thinking Kenny Britt could help this team."

Chris Johnson rushes for 124 yards and a score, and the Titans sack Rivers three times.

Tennessee wins, 26-20.

Cleveland @ Minnesota (-5½)

The Browns face the unenviable task of defending Adrian Peterson, who's on a quest to rush for 2,500 yards.

"Peterson's on a quest to rush for 2,500 yards," Browns' head coach Rob Chudzinski said. "He's on a pace to rush for 1,544. That's still a pretty good year for A.P., or two for Trent Richardson. That's why we've shipped him to Indianapolis.

"Brandon Weeden has a sprained right thumb. For the sake of healthy blood flow, doctors have instructed Brandon to keep his thumb elevated. It's the only 'thumb's up' he's got this season."

The Vikings are 0-2 after a heartbreaking 31-30 loss in Chicago. The Cleveland defense will certainly gear their scheme to stop Peterson; Christian Ponder knows the pressure is on him to make things happen.

"I just have to play within myself," Ponder said. "There are others who wish I'd play outside Mall of America Stadium.

"Look, I'm no Peyton Manning. I'm no Aaron Rodgers. I'm no Joe Namath, although I have kissed, and then some, a sexy ESPN sideline reporter."

With Brandon Weeden out with a sore thumb, the Browns will look to a backup quarterback for guidance, and if that backup is worth his salt, he'll direct the team to the 2014 NFL draft for a solution. In the meantime, Brian Hoyer gets mop up duty early.

It's was to be a battle of ground attacks featuring Peterson against Richardson. "All Day" versus the "Cleveland Steamer." As one would expect, Richardson would get No. 2 in that battle. But he is a Brown no more.

Peterson rushes for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Vikes win, 28-17.

Tampa Bay @ New England (-9)

Tim Tebow may no longer be a Patriot, but there's still a New England quarterback evoking the Lord's name. Tom Brady is flustered after several drops and bad patterns left Brady with only 185 yards passing and 1 touchdown in the Pats' 13-10 win over the Jets last week.

"I haven't seen that many drops since Superstorm Sandy," Brady said. "Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson may be big weapons some day, but right now, they're killing my stats. That's why I call them 'Weapons of Mass. Destruction.'

"What I really need is the return of Rob Gronkowski. His forearm and back are healing nicely. As was the case with one of my former tight ends, a 'motion for continuance' needs to be filed."

After last week's 16-14 loss to the Saints, Tampa has now lost their first two games by a total of three points. Josh Freeman was a sloppy 9-for-22 for 125 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.

"I'm good mind to reinstate Freeman," Greg Schiano said, "as captain of this sinking ship.

"And speaking of ships, take a look into the end zone at Raymond James Stadium. There, you'll see a pirate schooner that is clearly 'rigged.' Does this have anything to do with the team's vote on a captain? You do the crooked math."

Brady starts the game by calling 11 consecutive plays from the Chapter 1 of the Pats' playbook, "Slant Patterns to Julian Edelman." Four plays later, New England has its first touchdown.

The Patriots wins, 35-14.

Arizona @ New Orleans (-9)

The Saints escaped Tampa Bay with a 16-14 win over the Bucs on Garrett Hartley's 27-yard field goal as time expired. New Orleans is 2-0, in first place in the NFC South, with two division wins under their belt.

"We held Josh Freeman to 125 yards passing," Sean Payton said. "That's 'chump change,' which I believe is what Tampa calls their quest to rid themselves of Freeman.

"Our defense is ranked 11th in the league so far. That's a huge improvement. I'd like to be able to take some credit for that, but as you know, I have no idea what goes on with our defense."

The Cardinals evened their record with a 25-21 win over Detroit, giving Bruce Arians his first win as head coach.

"Coach got his first Gatorade bath," Larry Fitzgerald said. "The last thing to 'take a bath' in Glendale was our salary cap number, when we signed Kevin Kolb."

New Orleans wins, 27-23.

Detroit @ Washington (-1)

The Redskins have been outscored a combined 50-7 in the first half on their way to a 0-2 record. Mike Shanahan knows a good start is imperative for the Redskins' fortunes.

"We need a win," Shanahan said. "Victory is a cure-all. In fact, it's just what the doctor ordered. But since when do I listen to the doctor?

"I've been criticized for not allowing RG3 to play in the preseason. Now, I'm being criticized for not resting him. I think I've got a happy compromise: I'll sit him for three quarters and let him play the fourth. That seems to be the only time he produces."

The Lions offense will certainly look to air it out, especially with Reggie Bush ailing.

"Shanahan is a big fan of Calvin Johnson," Jim Schwartz said. "He especially loves Megatron's ESPN SportsCenter commercial. Washington fans eager for a Super Bowl wish Shanahan could transform into a vending machine. Then they might be able to get something out of him.

"Ndamukong Suh is appealing his $100,000 fine. I expect him to lose and eventually pay the fine like an honest man. There's nothing cheap about Suh, except his shots."

Washington wins, 35-31.

NY Giants @ Carolina (-1)

It's desperation time in Charlotte for the 0-2 Panthers. After a tough 12-7 loss to Seattle in Week 1, a late pass interference call negated an interception, and the Bills capitalized to win 24-23 last week in Buffalo.

"Hey," Newton said, "I'm just glad to finally be facing a white quarterback. And no one's whiter than Eli Manning. He's so white, he's got two Super Bowl rings.

"But this is a must-win game for us, and especially head coach Ron Rivera. If we lose to the Giants, one of two things will happen: we'll hit the panic button, or the eject button."

Likewise, the Giants also find themselves in a 0-2 hole to start the season. In their two losses, the G-Men have committed 10 turnovers.

"I can't be worried," Eli Manning said. "Quarterbacking is in my genes. Sounds like a new Wrangler campaign for Peyton and I. Or maybe just Peyton, because we all know who wears the pants in this family."

New York wins, 23-20.

Houston @ Baltimore (+2½)

Will Ed Reed finally suit up for the Texans on Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium? Reed, who signed with Houston this offseason for three years and $15 million, has yet to play a down.

"As soon as he signed with us," Gary Kubiak said, "Ed marked this date on his calendar, and marked it 'pay day.'"

The Ravens shut out the Browns in the second half, overcoming a 6-0 deficit to win 14-6. Joe Flacco missed the birth of his son, who was born one hour before kickoff.

"My wife said it was no big deal," Flacco said. "After all, I wasn't even there for the conception.

"And speaking of 'women in stirrups,' we don't fear the Texans at all, despite their 2-0 record. Houston's had a 2-0 record before, just not in the playoffs. Now, the Texans are a good team. Their defense is nothing to sneeze at, or spit at, if you're Ray Rice."

Houston wins, 30-24.

Atlanta @ Miami (-1)

After a sluggish start to the season, the Falcons' offense took flight in a 31-24 win over the visiting Rams last week. Julio Jones caught 10 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, validating his status as one of the league's most dangerous downfield threats.

"There are a lot of 'Julio's' in Miami," Matt Ryan said, "and practically all of them had to 'validate their status' when they get there."

The Dolphins are 2-0, tied with the Patriots for first in the AFC East, and are thriving with a solid defense and improved play from quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

"We are the most surprising team in the AFC," Joe Philbin said. "We're undefeated, and that's sent shock waves through the football community. In other words, the surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins had to be revived with a defibrillator."

The fired up Dolphins defense comes out blazing (after a pre-game motivational speech from former Dolphin Ricky Williams). Offensively, the 'Fins run right at the Falcons' injury-depleted defense.

Miami wins, 27-17.

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-2)

Rookie quarterbacks E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith face off at MetLife Stadium as the 1-1 Bills and 1-1 Jets meet. Manuel's 2-yard touchdown pass with two seconds left gave the Bills their first win of the year, a 24-23 decision over the Panthers.

"The Bills may have finally found their quarterback of the future," Doug Marrone said. "He's got this town thinking Super Bowl. If he continues to progress as we'd like, fans might be thinking of winning a Super Bowl."

The Jets nearly upset the Patriots before falling 13-10 in Foxboro. Smith threw for 214 yards, 29 more than Tom Brady, but also tossed 3 costly interceptions.

"The New York Yankees once had a lineup that included the 'Murderers' Row,'" Rex Ryan said. "I've got one of my own. It's my collection of quarterbacks - Smith, Mark Sanchez, Matt Simms, and Brady Quinn. They're killing me."

New York wins 19-13.

Indianapolis @ San Francisco (-10½)

Andrew Luck faces his former college coach Jim Harbaugh as the Colts visit Candlestick Park to challenge the 49ers. San Fran is coming off a 29-3 pounding at the hands of the Seahawks, while the Colts lost 24-20 at home to the Dolphins.

"With 3 sacks and 6 quarterback hits," Luck said, "the Dolphins really put a hurting on me in our defeat. Much like Coach Harbaugh, that makes me a sore loser.

"We just acquired Trent Richardson from the Browns for a 2014 first-round pick. There are no winners in this deal, only losers. We lost a first-round pick; the Browns lost patience."

Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers found the going tough at Seattle last week, losing 29-3 in the raucous confines of Century Link Stadium. Kaepernick threw 3 interceptions, lost a fumble, and was sacked 3 times.

"I couldn't hear anything in that stadium," Kaepernick said, "especially anyone telling me how great I am."

San Francisco wins, 34-20.

Jacksonville @ Seattle (-19½)

The Seahawks blasted NFC West rivals the 49ers 29-3 last week, led by a suffocating defense and three touchdowns from Marshawn Lynch.

"Fans at Century Link Stadium set a record by reaching 136 decibels," Pete Carroll said, "making them the loudest sports stadium in history. Funny thing was, you could still hear Richard Sherman."

Former Seahawks' defensive coordinator Gus Bradley makes his return to Seattle, this time as head coach of the 0-2 Jaguars.

"To have any chance in Seattle," Bradley said, "we'll need divine intervention. Many think that could be in the form of Tim Tebow. Fans were outside our stadium rallying for us to sign Tebow. What they should be doing is rallying for the Seahawks to sign him. Then we might have a chance."

The Jaguars have scored only 11 points this season in losing their first two games by a combined 47-11 margin. By heavy contrast, the Seahawks have outscored opponents 41-10.So, in addition to yellow flags and red flags, you're likely to see a white flag as well.

Seattle rolls to a 31-0 win, adding the Jags to the list of teams they've blown out this year, also known as their spank bank.

Chicago @ Pittsburgh (+2½)

Jay Cutler's 16-yard touchdown pass to Martellus Bennett gave the Bears a 31-30 win over the visiting Vikings. It was the second consecutive fourth-quarter comeback led by Cutler this season.

"Jay has ice water in his veins," Brandon Marshall said. "Yet some people still wonder what's in his 'cup.'"

After Monday's 20-10 loss in Cincinnati, the Steelers are 0-2, tied for last in the AFC North. The Pittsburgh offense is sluggish, and the defense no longer strikes fear into the opposition.

"We've just been awful across the board," Mike Tomlin said. "If you were to evaluate us, there would be lots of failing grades. Terry Bradshaw isn't the only one dropping the 'F' word."

Pittsburgh gets an inspired defensive effort, and Troy Polamalu makes the most spectacular play of his career when he somersaults over the Bears' line and snatches the shotgun snap before it gets to Cutler, then races 65 yards for the score.

Pittsburgh wins, 24-22.

Oakland @ Denver (-15)

Peyton Manning and the Broncos whipped little brother Eli and the Giants 41-23 last week, leaving no doubt of the identity of the better quarterback.

"Sure," Peyton said, "Eli's got two rings. But he also has two hands, and he needs both to count the number of interceptions he's thrown this season. His aim has been so bad this year, he can't even get 'Football on His Phone.' Eli's got stats only a brother could love. "

The Raiders took their first win of the year, beating the hapless Jaguars 19-9 in Oakland last week.

"We're only one game behind the Broncos in the AFC West," Terrelle Pryor said. "With a win, we take over sole possession of first place. For that to happen, the devil said he'll need soul possession."

The Broncos' defense totally shuts down Pryor, forcing 5 turnovers, earning Pryor a brand new nickname, "Terre(b)le."

Manning tosses 4 touchdown passes and the Broncos steamroll the overmatched Raiders, 42-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:14 PM | Comments (1)

Rick Reilly's Redskins

So Rick Reilly, who I think has pushed Bill Simmons all the way to second place in sportswriters I loathe the most, has a column up about the Redskins' nickname, and my initial gut reaction to it has all the eloquence of a 15-year-old after their first wine cooler: I'm all, oh God, what is this, I mean how do you get paid and what the hell I mean...

...okay. Head straightened out, let's get to the rancid meat on this bone.

"I guess this is where I'm supposed to fall in line and do what every other American sports writer is doing. I'm supposed to swear I won't ever write the words "Washington Redskins" anymore..."

Sure, this is where he's supposed to fall in line, but Reilly's no yes-man or chump! He does his own thinking in this PC world gone mad! His bravery can only be described as "heroic" when standing up to the precedent of Peter King and Christine Brennan. I pose a question to the reader: who is more valorous: Rick Reilly, or Gandhi?

"...because it's racist and offensive and a slap in the face to all Native Americans who ever lived. Maybe it is."

I don't know why he included "maybe it is" at the end of that paragraph, because as the rest of his story will try to persuade, it totally isn't.

Let's start with that most watertight of scientific assertions, the anecdote:

"The whole issue is so silly to me," says Bob Burns, my wife's father and a bundle holder in the Blackfeet tribe. "The name just doesn't bother me much. It's an issue that shouldn't be an issue, not with all the problems we've got in this country."

I agree with Bob Burns, Rick Reilly's wife's father (if only there was a term for such a person) and bundle holder in the Blackfeet tribe. There are definitely more important issues to tackle than the name of DC's NFL team. So I move that the NFL and the Washington franchise must not move on this issue until they've tackled world hunger and solved this whole Syrian mess and indeed, bring everlasting peace to the entire Middle East, nay, the globe. We can only tackle one issue at a time, in order of importance.

Reilly goes on to cite several high schools that use the Redskin nickname, that have a strong majority of Native American students. These students want to keep the Redskins name (so checkmate, liberals!). One pull quote I'd like to highlight due to its dubiousness, from Brett Hayes, a member of the Choctaw tribe:

"My kids are really afraid we're going to lose the Redskin name. They say to me, 'They're not going to take it from us, are they, Dad?'"

And then a single tear rolled down each of his kids' cheeks, each clutching their own well-worn Redskins doll (unfortunately these will soon be violently seized by federal agents). As violins swelled, Hayes replied, "Not if I can help it, dearest daughters. Not if I can help it." He steeled his gaze Eastward until, from hundreds of miles away, he could see the White House.

At least here, Reilly starts quoting polls and statistics, including one that states that 90% of Native Americans are not offended by the name according to the Annenberg Public Policy Center. But no matter, because Roger Goodell said the NFL needs to "listen even if one person is offended."

"One person? Got it. Guess we need to listen to people who are offended by the Kansas City Chiefs' name, too. That's one that offends my father-in-law. You see some little guy wearing a headdress made of chicken feathers, painting his face up, making a mockery of us. I hate that. Those are things you earn."

First of all, I guess this means he didn't use "father-in-law" before because he was going to use it later, which is taking a solid journalistic practice to a ridiculous extreme. Second of all, Burns is aware that Redskin fans do that too, right?

"One person? I know an atheist who is offended by religious names like the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim."

Hmm. He went into specifics with teeth-gnashing over the Kansas City Chiefs, but not his atheist acquaintance who is offended by the Saints and the Angels. I think it's because he doesn't exist in Reilly's life, what do you think?

But yeah, one person? Score a point for Reilly for hammering Goodell for sloppy, over-the-top hyperbole, something Reilly would never do:

"For the majority of Native Americans who don't care, we'll care for them. For the Native Americans who haven't asked for help, we're glad to give it to them.

"Trust us. We know what's best. We'll take this away for your own good, and put up barriers that protect you from ever being harmed again. Kind of like a reservation."

Anyway, while a majority of Native Americans may not care about the Redskins nickname, a lot of them do. This need not be held up to a majority vote, because it's just a nickname. If 10% of Native Americans are offended, what's the harm in changing it to the Burgundies or the Cheseapeakers or something, where no one would be offended (except ironically at that PC world gone mad)?

It's a nickname. Nothing more. Teams change them all the time, make money on new merch, and fans buy up all of Mitchell and Ness's stock of "vintage" items under the old name. Everybody wins in this very easy to solve and not-worth-neck-veins-bulging issue, on either side. Unless your veins are bulging over bad punditry, like mine are.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:08 PM | Comments (3)

September 18, 2013

Wild Card Drama

The National League playoff field is all but set. While there will obviously be an interesting end of September for the National League Central between the Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, and Cincinnati Reds as to who will win the division and who will be forced to play each other in the one game wild card matchup, the National League has a fraction of the excitement contained within the American League as we enter the final two weeks of the 2013 season.

The Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Oakland Athletics have their divisions secured. We could not have said that about Oakland last week, but a road trip sweep of the Texas Rangers has the A's looking in a pretty good place.

Each division has at least one representative in position to vie for the two wild card spots. As of Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays out of the American League East have a slight edge over the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles. But the final four series for the Rays are very difficult. They have an eight-game home stand against the Rangers — who are in serious need of a late season turnaround — and the Orioles.

That home stand is followed up by a six-game road trip into Yankee Stadium and the building formerly known as SkyDome. Three of the last four series for the Rays are against teams that must win and their final series is against a division rival who would love to play the role of spoiler. It's a tough road for the Rays. I predict in the 14 games that remain on their schedule, they'll go 7-7.

As of Monday morning the Orioles were 2.5 games behind the Rays. If it is possible to have a tougher schedule than the Rays, the Orioles would contend for such an honor as they have to face the best team in baseball — the Boston Red Sox six times in their last 13 games. Including that series at Tampa Bay and three-game series at home vs. the Blue Jays, the Orioles have a tough road as well. I predict they'll go 6-7, which won't be enough to surpass the Rays.

The New York Yankees (as of Monday morning) were three games behind the Rays and half a game behind the Orioles. The Yankees on the other hand have a relatively easy schedule for the end of the season. They play at Toronto for three games, and at home vs. the Rays for three games, but their other matchups look to be pretty easy, they are at home vs. the San Francisco Giants and at the Houston Astros for three games. In those 12 games, I predict they'll go 8-4, which won't be enough to push them past the Rays, but it will get them close.

Outside the American League East, we have some real interesting contenders. The Cleveland Indians are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007, which was also the last time they had a winning season. The Indians are currently half a game behind the Rays and Rangers for the wild card spots. Their final two weeks are light compared to the teams in the American League East. They have to play at a tough Kansas City team who is also alive and vying for a wild card spot, then at home vs. the Astros and the White Sox, then at Minnesota to end out the season. I predict they go 9-4 in that span, putting them ahead of the Rays and keeping them ahead of the Yankees and Orioles.

Kansas City has an outside chance to make it, as well. They are 3.5 games behind the Rays and Rangers, but their schedule might push them pretty close to the leaders. A home stand against the aforementioned Indians and then the struggling Rangers is followed by a road trip to Seattle to take on the Mariners and Chicago to take on the floundering White Sox. I predict they also go 9-4 in their last two weeks, which would surpass the Orioles and tie them with the Yankees, but leave them just behind the Rays and Indians.

And finally, out to the American League West where the Texas Rangers had lost six straight as of Monday and in the course of one week went from contending for the American League West Division title to in danger of losing their playoff spot altogether.

The Rangers start with difficulties this week, but end on an easier week in their final week of the regular season. They are at Tampa Bay and at Kansas City — both dangerous places to play this time of year. Then they are at home to finish the season against the Astros and the Los Angeles Angels. I predict they go 7-7 to end the season, which will put them in an awkward position (if my other predictions are correct) where they will be tied with Tampa Bay for the fifth and final wild card spot.

This would be decided by a one-game playoff, most likely in Texas (assuming Texas and Tampa split the series this week). Imagine that scenario. Play an elimination game. Then go play another one. Then start a playoff series. The team that comes out of that scenario will either be riding high on adrenaline or crash and burn in their first playoff series. It could be a blessing. It could be a big, fat curse.

What's interesting is that the American League wild card race is so close that we could see a number of scenarios play out that would be somewhat complicated.

Let's say that the Rays, Indians, and Rangers all end the season with the exact same record, making three teams tied for two wild card positions. Determined by head-to-head play, the teams are then ranked 1-3. The upcoming Rays vs. Rangers series makes it difficult to determine, but it would seem to me that the Indians would be 1, then 2 would be Texas, and then Tampa would be 3. In this hypothetical situation, Texas would travel to Cleveland and the winner would earn wild card spot 1, with home field advantage in the actual wild card round. Then the loser of that game would travel to Tampa Bay and the winner of that game would travel to play the winner of the first game.

I don't know of a better solution, but it seems to me this system is flawed. Texas, as team two, has two chances to win, but both on the road, even though they would likely have the tiebreaker over the Rays. The Rays only get one opportunity, which I disagree with. If Cleveland beats Texas at home and Texas beats the Rays on the road, why don't the Rays get a shot at Cleveland? The answer is obviously because this pattern of round robin victory splits could go on forever, but I'm not entirely sure the current situation is the best solution.

Whatever the case may be, September baseball is bound to be exciting, especially in the American League. Look for the Indians and the Rays to come out on top, but the Rangers at Rays four-game series this week should tell us most of what we need to know.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:40 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 27

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth passed Kyle Busch on a restart with 27 laps to go and held on to win the rain-delayed Geico 400 at Chicagoland. Kenseth leads Busch by 8 points in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"That was what you call an uneventful win," Kenseth said. "Unlike incriminating radio chatter, I do things quietly."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson led 40 laps at Chicagoland and came home fifth in the Geico 400. He is third in the points standings, 11 behind Matt Kenseth.

"We survived a broken jack in the pits," Johnson said. "That left us with a hill to climb, a hill known as 'Broke Jack Mountain.'

"Right now, Kenseth has the upper hand, which makes him vulnerable, because it's a position to which he's not accustomed. Just the saying of the words 'upper hand' makes Matt cower and keep an eye peeled for Carl Edwards."

3. Kyle Busch — Busch finished second to teammate Matt Kenseth as Joe Gibbs Racing took the top two spots at Chicagoland. Busch is second in the points standings, eight behind Kenseth.

"After winning the Trucks and Nationwide races," Busch said, "I just missed the Chicagoland sweep. I did two burnouts during the weekend, and that surprised a lot of people, because many are expecting a 'flame-out.'

"I nearly fell out of my truck during my victory burnout after my Trucks win on Friday night. It's one thing to get thrown out of a truck; it's another to get thrown out of the Chase."

4. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished 11th at Chicagoland, just missing out on his 14th top 10 of the year. He is fifth in the points standings, 23 out of first.

"Sunday's race was sponsored by Geico," Edwards said. "Much like Aflac, they are an insurance firm that covers accidents. And that explains why Clint Bowyer is sponsored by neither."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished third in the Geico 400 on a long, rainy day in Joliet, Illinois. He is fourth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 15 out of first.

"Such scandalous behavior in NASCAR," Harvick said. "Jeff Burton would be appalled, and he'd tell you that, if only someone would interview him."

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished ninth at Chicagoland, posting his 14th top-10 of the year. He is eighth in the points standings, 28 out of first.

"It was quite a week for me," Bowyer said. "I was in front of cameras so much, I felt like an actor. I'm not dumb, I just play it on television."

7. Kurt Busch — Busch finished fourth for Furniture Row Racing, the only single-car team in the Chase For The Cup. He is sixth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 23 out of first.

"Did you see Junior's engine let go?" Busch said. "There was 'fire' and 'Smoke," which sounds an awful lot like the Ryan Newman situation at Stewart-Haas Racing."

8. Ryan Newman — Newman, who was added to the Chase field earlier in the week, finished 10th in the Geico 400.

"I'm just happy that NASCAR did the right thing and added me to the field," Newman said. "I believe NASCAR may have been the only one to do the right thing at Richmond."

9. Jeff Gordon — Gordon battled back from a lap down to pull out a sixth-place finish at Chicagoland, a solid start to the Chase for the four-time champion. He moved up to seventh in the points standings, 24 behind Matt Kenseth.

"I was a late entry into the Chase field," Gordon said, "courtesy of NASCAR in the wake if the Clint Bowyer scandal. It was my first 'win' of the year.

"Now, I think Joey Logano got what was coming to him with the engine failure. Incidentally, Logano is a big Game Show Network fan. Incidentally, his favorite shows are Let's Make a Deal and The Price is Right."

10. Joey Logano — Logano started on the pole at Chicagoland and finished 37th after his engine failed with 91 laps to go at Chicagoland. He is now 12th in the points standings, 52 behind Matt Kenseth.

"Some would say I deserved engine failure," Logano said. "I guess they would call that 'bad car-ma.' But hopefully, fans won't define me by this deal-making that took place at Richmond. In other words, I hope they'll 'give me a pass.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:25 AM | Comments (0)

September 17, 2013

NFL Week 2 Report

Five Quick Hits

* I know the media likes Robert Griffin III, but I think FOX went overboard Sunday afternoon. About halfway through the second quarter of the early games, the scroll bar showing stats at the bottom of the screen gave everyone's last name as Griffin.

* The AFC North and NFC East are winless outside of their divisions.

* We keep hearing about Champ Bailey's absence, but through two games, Denver's Tony Carter has an interception and 8 passes defensed.

* If my fantasy football draft were today and I had the top pick, I'd choose LeSean McCoy. But I'd handcuff with Bryce Brown really aggressively.

* How many players left the field this week with knee or ankle injuries? The NFL's emphasis on avoiding hits to the head is getting a lot of people hurt.

Thursday Night Game

New England Patriots 13, New York Jets 10

* We're doing this game Memento-style, starting at the end and working up to the beginning. Rich Eisen summed things up for the Patriots on the postgame show: "It was not pretty, it wasn't Picasso, it wasn't Rembrandt, really we don't know any artwork that this would resemble tonight, but it's a W."

* Brad Nessler in the fourth quarter: "A sloppy game is gonna have a messy ending."

* Nessler, earlier, following one of many dropped passes: "It's frustrating to coaches, it's frustrating to quarterbacks, quite frankly it's frustrating me."

* It wasn't just the rainy second half that was ugly. Less than 20 minutes into the game, Mike Mayock noted, "Penalties, replays, challenges ... it's been a funky game."

* Tom Brady obviously doesn't trust any of his receivers other than Julian Edelman right now, and he appears to have good reason for that. Last season, the league-worst Cardinals averaged 15.4 first downs, the league average was about 19.5, and the Patriots averaged 27.8. On Thursday, the Patriots only gained 9 first downs. It looks like this offense will be pretty bad until Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski return to the field.

* At the beginning of the season, most fans expected the Bills and Jets to rank among the worst teams in the NFL. The Patriots struggled to beat both of them, winning by a combined 5 points. I'm not sure this is an above-average team right now.

* Terrible idea that needs to end immediately: NFL Network identifies two "difference makers" and tracks their stats throughout the game rather than showing starting lineups. That is not fan-friendly.

Sunday's Games

Green Bay Packers 38, Washington Redskins 20

* Let's talk about Brandon Meriweather. He's a headhunter. It's no secret: Meriweather hits hard, and he goes for the kill shot. In the first quarter of Sunday's game, Meriweather went helmet-to-helmet on Eddie Lacy, knocking the Packers rookie out of the game. Shortly afterwards, he went helmet-to-helmet on Lacy's backup, James Starks, and KO-ed himself. That's two dangerous hits, two knockouts. I know the NFL hates Ndamukong Suh, but Meriweather is the most reckless and dangerous player in the league.

* Don't let the final score fool you: Green Bay led 31-0 before taking its foot off the gas pedal in the last 20 minutes. Aaron Rodgers passed for 335 yards and 3 TDs in the first half alone.

* Garbage-time stat-padding aside, Washington has really struggled so far. The Eagles and Packers outscored them by a combined 50-7 in the first half. RG3 needs to start running again.

San Diego Chargers 33, Philadelphia Eagles 30

* Another big day for Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, and DeSean Jackson, but Philadelphia's defense is not good. It got burned in the second half last week, and throughout the game against San Diego. The Chargers picked up 33 first downs, including 10/15 third down conversions, and 539 yards of total offense.

* San Diego doubled the Eagles' time of possession (40:17/19:43) and ran 20 more plays than Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense. You don't want to draw dramatic conclusions after only two games, but Philip Rivers looks like he might be really good again.

Chicago Bears 31, Minnesota Vikings 30

* The Vikings went 0/3 in the red zone and lost by one point. They kicked three field goals of less than 30 yards. Let's say you go for it on two of those. Once you turn the ball over and Chicago gets terrible field position, about its own 5-yard line. The other time you score a touchdown. Even assuming that Chicago's drive is just a productive as after a kickoff — unlikely — that one TD is worth more than two field goals, and now you could get a tie and overtime.

* Christian Ponder struggled last year, so the team brought in Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson. Defenses still focus on stopping Adrian Peterson. It's time for Ponder to start producing.

* Peterson's stated goal this season is 2,500 rushing yards. He's currently on pace for 1,544. He'll have to average 164.8 per game to meet his goal.

Miami Dolphins 24, Indianapolis Colts 20

* Either this was a really crisply-played game, or Clete Blakeman's officiating crew took a hands-off approach. The Colts had only three penalties, and the Dolphins zero.

* The Dolphins worked hard to upgrade their defense through free agency. Brent Grimes is off to a nice start, with 5 passes defensed through two games.

Kansas City Chiefs 17, Dallas Cowboys 16

* Facing a defense that generated six turnovers last week, the Chiefs committed none.

* Starting quarterbacks with no interceptions the first two weeks: Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Jake Locker, and Alex Smith. The Chiefs finished last season -24 in turnover differential, and their QBs threw more INTs than TDs in 12 of the team's 16 games. It's only been two weeks, but Smith looks like an impact player. Kansas City has gone from a joke to a possible playoff contender.

Buffalo Bills 24, Carolina Panthers 23

* The Bills sacked Cam Newton six times, including 4.5 by Mario Williams. Rough game for Jordan Gross.

* I know Buffalo fans are excited about E.J. Manuel. But I heard someone on TV (Dan Patrick, I think) talk about how long it had been since Bills fans had a young QB they could be excited about. How long ago was it, though, really? Six years. In 2007, the team had a rookie quarterback from Stanford who won five of his first six starts, each of the first three against teams that had made the playoffs the season before. I'm not saying Manuel will be Trent Edwards, but let's not get carried away.

Atlanta Falcons 31, St. Louis Rams 24

* Halftime score: Falcons 24, Rams 3.

* You've gotta feel bad for Steven Jackson. After nine years with the Rams, he returns to St. Louis as a Falcon, scores a touchdown on the first drive ... and immediately leaves the game with an injury.

Baltimore Ravens 14, Cleveland Browns 6

* CBS hates football and hates football fans. I don't live in Baltimore or Cleveland, but this was the early game my local CBS affiliate chose to show. It was expected to be the worst Sunday afternoon game, and it lived up (or down) to expectations. The unique Eagles' offense against the rejuvenated Chargers? The re-loaded Dolphins against Andrew Luck and the Colts? The contending Texans and the surprising Titans? Nope, let's show two bad teams, and more than that, two boring bad teams. Even when they're good, the Ravens are not fun to watch. They're not even good right now.

* The Browns were charged with delay of game three times. This offense has no cohesion.

Houston Texans 30, Tennessee Titans 24

* Houston kicker Randy Bullock went 0-for-3 on field goal attempts, missing from 50, 50, and 46.

* For the Texans, same story as last week: close on the scoreboard, dominant on paper. Houston led the Titans by 11 first downs and 204 yards.

* After back-to-back fourth quarter comebacks, can we put to rest the notion that Matt Schaub isn't clutch enough for Houston to win a title?

* Brian Cushing: 11 solo tackles, including 4 for a loss, 2 of them sacks.

Oakland Raiders 19, Jacksonville Jaguars 9

* It took the Jaguars 117 minutes to score their first touchdown of the season. They still don't have an extra point.

* Maurice Jones-Drew left this game with an ankle injury. I warned fantasy owners last month that MJD was a risky draft choice. 28-year-old RBs just don't rebound like that without switching to a different offense.

Arizona Cardinals 25, Detroit Lions 21

* Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Bush both left this game with lower-body injuries. Fitzgerald, dealing with a sore hamstring, skipped the second half, but he assured reporters he'll be ready in Week 3. An MRI revealed "no structural damage" to Bush's knee injury, but his status for Week 3 is not clear yet.

* Last week, DeAndre Levy's interception return for a touchdown was called back on a penalty. This week, he returned a pick 66 to the end zone, no flags. If he can keep doing this every week, we won't have to argue about whether J.J. Watt or Richard Sherman deserves Defensive Player of the Year.

* Arizona's Dave Zastudil punted to Detroit five times. Those five punts were returned a total of 8 yards (1.6 avg) and three of the five were down inside the 10. In a close game, that's a big deal.

Denver Broncos 41, New York Giants 23

* The NFC East went 0-4 in Week 2. It's too early to write off New York and Washington in this weak division.

* With four minutes left before halftime, David Wilson showed why the Giants have to put up with his fumbling, making the most impressive two-yard gain since Barry Sanders. He broke three tackles just getting back to the line of scrimmage.

* All-pro tackle Ryan Clady has a Lisfranc sprain. I'd be surprised if he plays again before Denver's Week 9 bye.
(UPDATE: Clady is out for the season.)

* There was a stretch in the third quarter of this game where you could come away with the impression that one or more officials on Gene Steratore's crew are pretty big Giants fans.

* Peyton Manning is now 3-0 against brother Eli, but all the hip kids know that if those games had been in the playoffs, the Giants would have won all three. If this had been the Super Bowl, Eli would have chosen not to throw 4 interceptions, because he's clutch and that's how he rolls.

* It's easy to blame the Giants' troubles on Eli and his league-leading seven interceptions, but he's getting desperate because of their third-down percentage (1/11 vs. DEN) and red zone efficiency. The Giants don't capitalize on their field position. They move between the 20s, but they stall before the end zone and kick way too many short field goals. Last year, the Giants led the NFL in field goal attempts of under 30 yards (11) and field goal attempts of under 40 yards (27). That's a lot of short kicks, and you've just got to turn more of those into touchdowns.

New Orleans Saints 16, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

* The first of two weather-delays in Week 2, with the game postponed over an hour for the Tampa Bay lightning.

* In the first half, Tampa had more penalties (7) than first downs (6). The Bucs finished with 273 yards of offense and 118 penalty yards against.

Seattle Seahawks 29, San Francisco 49ers 3

* I think Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth are bad luck. Two of their three games this year have been delayed by dangerous weather.

* Michele Tafoya is the only sideline reporter I like.

* I really hope the NFL will look into what happened on the first quarter punt block. A whistle blew and several Seahawks stood up. This wasn't one or two Niners breaking through the line to reach the punter, it was a jailbreak, the whole team. That's not bad special teams, it's confusion about whether the ball is live.

* This point is about my fantasy team, and I know that's usually boring, but it's relevant here. I read a lot of fantasy football columns; they're a great source of information and insight. Most big sports journalists get caught up in conventional wisdom, and they say things that are obviously false. But fantasy guys are bound by the numbers — they have to go by what actually happens.

But sometimes that focus on numbers gets them away from common sense. My primary fantasy league is small, four teams, so all our starters are really good. This week I benched C.J. Spiller to play Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch. All the fantasy experts were really down on Lynch, facing a tough San Francisco run defense. But Lynch owns the 49ers. He's the one RB in the league who is Niner-proof. You play him because of the matchup. Sure enough, 98 rushing yards, 39 receiving yards, and 3 TDs.

* Collinsworth complained during the game, "Lynch has had one 21-yard run and not much other than that." This was in the first quarter, and he's complaining about someone who's already got a 20-yard run.

Monday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 10

* I agree with Steve Young: the Bengals held serve. The defense mostly played well, Andy Dalton had a pretty good second half, Giovani Bernard showed explosive potential, their offensive line seems good (especially Clint Boling). But the takeaway here wasn't the Bengals; we didn't really learn much about them. What we saw on Monday night was that the Steelers are in a lot of trouble. They're not good.

* Pivotal play: late in the first quarter, Ben Roethlisberger completes a 34-yard pass to David Paulson. Cincinnati's Adam Jones snatches the ball and insists it was a fumble. The Steelers run to the line, presumably so they can run a play before the Bengals get a chance to challenge. Then ... they stop. They huddle, they let the play clock run down to :04, and finally Marvin Lewis throws the challenge flag. It was a fumble, and instead of an easy field goal (or possible touchdown) for Pittsburgh, the Bengals drive 87 yards for the go-ahead TD. Why did Pittsburgh slow down?

* ESPN ran a great split screen while Ben was letting the Bengals challenge. They showed a replay of Paulson's fumble on one side, with live action (of an ill-advised huddle) on the other. As a fan, I appreciate that.

Pro Football Hall of Fame

I spent several hours last week playing with the NFL's PFHOF voting tool, choosing between two of this year's nominees for Canton. It's a waste of time, and I need to stop, but as someone with extensive interest in NFL history, I feel strongly about these things. I don't stop watching football during the offseason. I watch NFL Films productions and old game tapes, I read football books and the SI Vault, I do deeply involved statistical analyses, and I talk football with anyone who can hold up one end of the conversation. Even in the offseason, I devote a ton of attention to pro football, and in particular to football history.

There are 126 "modern" nominees this year, and I've broken them into four groups. The first are players, coaches, and contributors whom I fully support and would vote for enthusiastically. The second are individuals I wouldn't select in the early rounds of balloting, and might or might not go thumbs-up as Finalists, but I wouldn't have a problem with them getting in. The third group is comprised of those for whom I probably wouldn't vote, but I see the appeal of their candidacy. The fourth are people who have no business in the Hall of Fame without buying a ticket.

These are opinions, not predictions.

Group 1: Strong Candidates

Tiki Barber, Terrell Davis, Herschel Walker, Tim Brown, Henry Ellard, Marvin Harrison, Joe Jacoby, Walter Jones, Will Shields, Michael Strahan, Derrick Brooks, Kevin Greene, Zach Thomas, Steve Atwater, LeRoy Butler, Rodney Harrison, Aeneas Williams, Morten Andersen, Don Coryell, Clark Shaughnessy, Bobby Beathard, Steve Sabol, Paul Tagliabue, Ron Wolf, George Young

I deliberately made this a group of 25, the number of candidates who will advance to the semi-finalist stage. Top 10: Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison, Walter Jones, Will Shields, Michael Strahan, Derrick Brooks, Kevin Greene, Zach Thomas, Morten Andersen, Steve Sabol.

If you oppose any of those 10, I just don't believe you have a good understanding of pro football.

Group 2: Borderline Candidates

Randall Cunningham, Roger Craig, Ricky Watters, Jimmy Smith, Mark Bavaro, Mike Kenn, Tom Nalen, Bryant Young, Cornelius Bennett, Clay Matthews, Karl Mecklenburg, Sam Mills, Albert Lewis, John Lynch, Darren Woodson, Gary Anderson, Brian Mitchell, Tony Dungy, Richie Petitbon, Bill Polian

I listed 25 strong candidates and 20 borderline: 45 of the 126 nominees, just over a third. That includes 1 QB, 5 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 5 OL, 2 DL, 7 LB, 7 DB, 3 special teamers, 4 coaches, 4 personnel guys, 1 league commissioner, and the most important person in the history of televised sports, the architect of NFL Films. I know casual fans tend to support the offensive glory positions, but there's a lot more to the game. Other than first-time nominees, everyone in this group is discussed in my article last year on Hall of Fame snubs.

Group 3: Weak Candidates

Doug Flutie, Ottis Anderson, Priest Holmes, Gary Clark, Andre Reed, Sterling Sharpe, Rod Smith, Willie Anderson, Tony Boselli, Lomas Brown, Jim Covert, Jay Hilgenberg, Chris Hinton, Kent Hull, Jim Lachey, Nate Newton, Steve Wisniewski, Charles Haley, Too Tall Jones, Dexter Manley, Charles Mann, Steve McMichael, Fred Smerlas, Ted Washington, Eric Allen, Joey Browner, Everson Walls, Steve Tasker, Bill Arnsparger, Bill Cowher, Tom Flores, Mike Holmgren, Jimmy Johnson, Dan Reeves, Marty Schottenheimer, Bud Adams, Gil Brandt, Otho Davis, Eddie Kotal, Robert Kraft, Elmer Layden, Art McNally, Art Modell

Forty-three people in this group. I don't think any of them should get in, but I suppose it's possible my mind could change in the future.

Group 4: It's An Honor Just to Be Nominated

Drew Bledsoe, Trent Green, Steve McNair, Phil Simms, Shaun Alexander, Jerome Bettis, Larry Centers, Stephen Davis, Warrick Dunn, Eddie George, Dave Meggett, Eric Metcalf, Mark Clayton, Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Don Mosebar, Jerome Brown, Tedy Bruschi, Ken Harvey, Willie McGinest, Darryl Talley, Sam Madison, Patrick Surtain, Troy Vincent, Sean Landeta, Nick Lowery, Jon Gruden, Buddy Parker, Lou Saban, Dick Vermeil, Leo Carlin, Red Cashion, Jack Kent Cooke, Eddie DeBartolo, Ron Gibbs, Jerry Jones, Jim Tunney

Without getting into the "contributors" (mostly owners and referees), everyone in this group was a good player, or a good coach. Most of them were very good. But none of them approach a Hall of Fame standard, and in each case, there are eligible players at the position who are more deserving.

There are several refs listed here. I appreciate the difficult job they do, but I just don't see them shaping the game the same way as a star player, brilliant coach, insightful GM, ground-breaking owner, or innovative league official. A good referee doesn't shape the game, avoids doing anything significant. Intending no disrespect, but voting in a Ron Gibbs or Jim Tunney while omitting someone like Bill Arnsparger or Dan Reeves seems outrageous to me. I have no problem honoring superior officials in the Hall of Fame, but not through the same process or on the same level as players and coaches.

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

Top 10

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Houston Texans
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Chicago Bears
10. Miami Dolphins

If the Seahawks get healthy, and earn home field advantage in the playoffs, they're pretty much a lock to play in Super Bowl XLVIII. I just can't see anyone beating them in that building if they're close to 100%. This ranking for Denver might be too high with Ryan Clady out of action. But when they get Von Miller and Clady back, watch out.

Bottom Three

30. Oakland Raiders
31. Cleveland Browns
32. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Broncos are favored by 15 points against Oakland next week. The Seahawks are favored by 19 over Jacksonville.

Week 3

Game of the Week

Packers at Bengals
1:00 PM Eastern, FOX

Green Bay is missing two of the best players in its secondary. Colin Kaepernick scorched the Packers in Week 1, and even a hobbled, 50% Robert Griffin put up some strong numbers in the second half on Sunday. The Bengals have a good offensive line, one of the best WRs in football, and a pair of athletic young tight ends. What kind of damage will they do to Green Bay's defense? Conversely, Cincinnati has a pretty good defense, and last year it led the NFL in sacks. Aaron Rodgers takes a lot of sacks.

Green Bay's probably the better team, but the game's in Cincinnati and the matchup might favor the Bengals. Both teams already seem like locks to win their divisions (along with Denver and Houston), but it's time for the Bengals to prove they can hang with the big boys. They don't have to win — a 1-2 start won't doom them in the anemic AFC North — but if they keep it competitive, they could be a factor in the playoffs. I'm curious to see where this one goes.

Upset of the Week

Every Sunday, I watch the pregame shows and get annoyed when studio analysts choose an "upset" that's really a coin flip. They'll pick a 1-point underdog and act like they're going out on a limb, or three of the five forecasters will choose the same "upset" of the week. This bothers me enough that every week for the rest of the season, I'll use this space to forecast an upset involving a team favored by more than 3 points. That's a nasty restriction, but an upset is a surprising, improbable result.

This week, I'll say Rams over Cowboys, in Dallas. The spread is 3.5 - 4 points, depending where you look, so this isn't an off-the-wall pick. There's a chance the St. Louis passing game could go supernova this season, and the Dallas defense didn't do particularly well the first two weeks. Meanwhile, St. Louis has a good, underrated defense, and you never know when the Cowboys will just implode and blow a game they could have won.

Last week's NFL Weekly Report is available here.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:00 PM | Comments (0)

September 16, 2013

Can Johnny Manziel Succeed in the NFL?

All eyes in college football turned their eyes to College Station, Texas, this Saturday for the epic showdown between Alabama and Texas A&M. The game was everything we hoped it would be, with Alabama eventually winning, 49-42.

For those who love A&M QB Johnny Manziel, there was a performance for the ages — a total 562 yards from scrimmage, play after play of the magic only Johnny brings to the show. For those who hate him, there were a couple of perfect examples of the Bad Johnny that should worry NFL scouts — running around the backfield (exciting!) before chucking the ball up over the middle of the field (gasp!), the ball getting tipped (oh no!), then returned for a touchdown (s#@#!).

After the game, there was a spirited debate in more than a few bars and living rooms and (I expect) NFL front office board rooms across the country — will Johnny be a good pro?

His athleticism is unquestionable. But does he have the size at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds to survive playing his kind of game in the pros? He's about the same size as Michael Vick, and Vick has barely survived two games in the offense Chip Kelly installed in Philadelphia (missing one critical play in the red zone this Sunday after yet another big hit). How many years would Manziel survive playing his helter skelter approach?

All that is assuming Manziel lands in a system that will allow him to take advantage of his athleticism. Not all offenses are built the same, and if Manziel ends up with a team that runs a system based on precision timing and accuracy, does Manziel have the ability to thrive there?

This might come as a bit of a shock to our college-aged readers out there, but the world isn't looking for ways to adapt to you and your special skills. When (if) you get a job out of college, it's your job to adapt to the world, not the other way around. So while it might seem like it would make sense for a team to draft Manziel, recognize his special skills then build the offense around him, that's not very likely. The men who will be in charge of Manziel in the pros (called "bosses" in the real world) have been doing this a long time, and they're not willing (or able) to throw out decades of experience just because some new hotshot joined the company.

Just look what's happing to Cam Newton under new Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator Mike Shula (remember him, 'Bama fans?). In the Panthers' latest gut-wrenching loss (24-23 at Buffalo), Newton ran a paltry four times for just 15 yards. Forced to stay in the pocket, Newton completed just 21 of 38 passes for 229 yards and took 6 sacks. If Newton was in Philly with Kelly, that offense would be unstoppable. But in Carolina under Shula, it's mediocre city.

So that's a prime component of the Maziel-as-a-pro debate: can he be successful running a traditional pro offense? Looking at some of his decision making on Saturday, even the biggest Manziel fans would have to have their doubts.

Of course, then there are the character concerns, which though far overblown as a college football storyline, are very real when it comes to defining Manziel's potential value in the pros.

Going back to the real life thing, the purpose of college is to set yourself up for a job. Sure you want to have fun, get laid and "just be a college kid," but that's not what you're really there for. College is there to prepare you to become a self-sustaining adult. If you want to be a journalist, it means working for the school newspaper, putting together clips, landing an internship, then realizing you studied to join a dying profession where you'll be lucky to land a spot covering high school softball in Topeka, Kan.

If you're a stud football player, your goal in college is to do enough to convince your profession to hire you once you're eligible to go to the next level (and to pay you as much as possible). And just like in the real world, the goals of hiring managers is to fix their own problems, not give you an opportunity to better yourself. If they hire/pick you, you're there to make their lives easier, not the other way around. And so it follows that they would hesitate to hire anybody who will be a pain in their ass, because that's just more work they don't have time to deal with.

So when Manziel flashes his money signs in a blatant "eff you" to the NCAA and the faux amateurism rules that supposedly govern college football, that's a red flag in the "is this guy going to be a pain in my ass?" category. When he declines to talk to the media based on advice from family lawyers, that's a red flag that what you get with all that athleticism is a spoiled kid who could have a horrible time adapting to a world that does not give one hot damn about how special everybody back in high school and college thought he was.

The question NFL front offices will have to answer for themselves is whether Manziel can conform to his profession. That doesn't mean he doesn't get to keep his special brand of play-making. That's what makes him worth the risk. But a big arm isn't enough in the NFL. Josh Freeman has a big arm, and he's about to get run out of Tampa because his team doesn't have his back any more.

It takes a special kind of cat to come in to a pro huddle and command the respect and attention of grown men who have been doing this a lot longer than you. Among recent college stars to enter the pro ranks, Buffalo's EJ Manuel has that special quality. Washington's Robert Griffin III has it. Seattle's Russell Wilson has it. Blaine Gabbert? Not so much.

When Manziel is in a pro training camp next year (assuming he comes out) and the vets are giving him a hard time, will he take it as a member of the team, or push back and ostracize himself? When he has a game like Geno Smith did last week against the Patriots (three fourth-quarter interceptions in a 13-10 loss), can he stand up in the face of the heat from the fans and media, or will he fall back on his "advisers" and play the victim card?

Or to put it all into one simple question, "how much of a pain in the ass will he be, and is it worth it to get his special talent on the field?"

Each team will have to answer that question for itself. There's no denying the natural talent, and somebody may well bite and take him in the first round (Minnesota? Tampa? Cleveland?). Or he could end up in the third wondering how A.J. McCarron just got drafted ahead of him.

Just like Manziel on the field, you just never know what's going to happen. But it sure will be fun to watch.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 10:27 AM | Comments (0)

September 13, 2013

The Captain at the Crossroads?

Even Yankee haters have to take pity upon the Empire Emeritus once in a while. Until they got bastinadoed for two out of three by the Red Sox last weekend, and losing the two in ways the Red Sox used to lose it to the Yankees with races on the line, they'd been making a surprising showing of just hanging in this year's race despite patchwork, the disabled list, and no little controversy involving a certain third baseman.

Now, they're going to face the rest of the season, never mind a postseason that looks a little less likely for them at this writing, without a man whose value to the franchise remains considerable whether or not he's in the lineup or on the field. Derek Jeter's ankle — fractured once in last year's American League Championship Series; fractured a second time in spring training — has taken him down for the count for the rest of the year.

The ankle isn't broken again, but it's balky enough to put the Captain on the disabled list and thus finish him for the season. The question no Yankee fan really wants to ask is whether this could mean, at long enough last, the end of the line for maybe the greatest spiritual leader the Yankees have had since Mickey Mantle and Don Mattingly.

You knew something was up when the Yankees jerked a few chains and came up with Brendan Ryan, whom they landed for a player to be named later in a deal with the Seattle Mariners Tuesday night, even as the Yankees were beating the Orioles in Camden Yards. Ryan isn't exactly a youth movement (he's 31), but he has something the Yankees need — a glove. He's a throwback to the good glove/gimpy bat shortstop whose defense was, in fact, cited by Grantland.com recently when that site's writer Ben Lindbergh analyzed Jeter's declining defense over the past few seasons — a decline that began when Jeter finally wrung the fundamental flaws out of his defensive game.

The problem isn't with his skills but his age. General Manager Brian Cashman took him out to dinner after the 2007 season and told him point blank his defense was hurting the Yankees, Lindbergh observed, after which Jeter went to work to fix his number one flaw: his positioning. In 2009, that improvement plus his hot season at the plate helped take the Yankees to their most recent World Series win. Then his age began catching up with him in the field, though he continued to hit respectably.

He's still had his milestones, of course. He became the first Yankee to bag 3,000 hits in the 'Stripes in a way that had Yankee fans and no few others saying "it figures," tagging David Price for the big knock and sending a full count curve ball into the left field bleachers. When he returned from the DL this season to help the Yankees say a formal farewell to Hideki Matsui, Jeter abetted the celebration by hitting the first pitch he'd see in regulation competition all year long over the right field fence.

But how much more can Jeter have left in the tank? His ticket to Cooperstown is all but punched and stamped. He's got the World Series rings to prove his value to his team over all those years. He's done everything within his power to keep playing and his body is doing everything in its power to remind him he's only human, after all, and with a finite baseball playing life.

Will it take an unflattering scouting report to show up in print to convince Jeter that nobody wants to see him end it with prolonged embarrassment? Such endings have happened to only too many athletes, some of whom have worn Yankee uniforms, too.

It took just such a scouting report — the Dodgers had prepared it, then loaned it to the Giants for the 1951 World Series, and somehow it ended up in Life for one and all to see — to convince Joe DiMaggio it wouldn't be a good idea to hang around for 1952 even at the same six-figure salary he was paid for 1951.

Mickey Mantle hung around for a few years longer than his body wanted him to do, too, until he finally couldn't take it anymore, even though the faltering Yankees (three years into their dark decade post-1964) needed his box office appeal, even after getting his wish to pass Jimmie Foxx on the all-time home run list. Willie Mays hung around beyond his body, too, likewise bedeviled by a few financial considerations, until he finally saw reality, declared 1973 his last season, and embarrassed himself stumbling in center field on a play he once made in his sleep in the World Series. Steve Carlton's anti-retirement tour put a big stain on his sterling career, though not enough of one to keep him from the Hall of Fame.

Can football fans forget the sad sight of Joe Namath trying one more comeback with the Los Angeles Rams? Can boxing fans forget Muhammad Ali boxing himself into Parkinson's syndrome because he just had to have one more championship belt a couple of more times, when he probably should have called it a career after Manila?

Will it be Jeter going up against the ghost of Ted Williams, instead, in another sense? Williams was haunted by a 1959 that felt lame by his standards and he was hell bent on going out like a champion if he could. So he signed up for 1960, hung up a splendid season that ended famously with that final at-bat home run in Fenway Park, and walked away.

Maybe Jeter writes off 2013 as an aberration, behaves himself enough to let the ankle heal all the way, exercises his 2014 option (at $9.5 million, no less), no matter how badly stung he was during his last contract negotiations (and only a fool would believe Jeter would decline the option in a bid to force a new deal out of the Yankees, who haven't been spending like Yankees these days, but who know his market value wouldn't exactly be what it used to be), and plays as well as a 40-year-old shortstop can play.

He has that kind of pride. Every day of his major league career has been nothing if not an exercise in a man's will to deliver the best he has to deliver. Nobody wants to see Jeter embarrass himself less than Jeter does. This isn't a man who wants to be remembered for a twice-fractured ankle reducing him to a bad, sad impersonation of what he once was. It shouldn't shock anyone to see Jeter back in 2014 playing with at least minimum credibility out of maximum effort.

But the ankle, and the rest of his body, may send him another message before spring training arrives. And it may not be the message Jeter or Yankee fans want to hear. It's hard enough to lose a franchise icon — with or without the prospect of a postseason trip — even if it's only the ravage of time that does it.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:23 PM | Comments (0)

September 12, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 2

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

NY Jets @ New England (-13)

The NFL Network's first Thursday night game gives viewers and intriguing matchup. It's the Jets against the Patriots. Bill Belichick versus Rex Ryan. Tom Brady versus Geno Smith. "White GQ" versus "Black QB."

"Let's not make this a racial issue," Brady said. "I don't judge on the basis of skin color. Oh no, I love tan lines on a woman.

"But if you want to talk about 'white power,' forget Riley Cooper. My 'white receiver bias' lies with Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. Those two have college degrees in pattern-running. The school? The 'Mighty Whites Of U.'"

The Jets beat the visiting Buccaneers on Nick Folk's field goal with two seconds left, made possible by an unnecessary roughness call on Tampa's Lavonte David.

"The fans loved it," Rex Ryan said. "Just like with Mark Sanchez, they applauded a big hit on our quarterback.

"This may be the turnaround our season needs. Things have been pretty bad in the last few weeks. Heck, we were sending the Patriots video of our practices, because we sure as hell didn't want to watch it."

Despite being 13-point underdogs, let's not count Geno and the Jets out. After all, Geno is undefeated head-to-head against Brady. And the Pats will be without Amendola and Shane Vereen. But this is Brady, a three-time Super Bowl champion, against Geno, a rookie, who's only starting because Sanchez, a man who wears a hair band better than most women, is out.

New England wins, 27-19.

St. Louis @ Atlanta (-7)

The Falcons look to bounce back after last week's 23-17 loss to New Orleans, in which a 1st-and-goal stand by the Saints' defense sealed the win in Sean Payton's return.

"We really didn't expect the Saints to field such a good defense," Matt Ryan said. "The Saints are familiar with overwhelming evidence, and there was overwhelming evidence that their defense would suck.

"But the Saints had over 7,042 reasons to make a stand. That's not the amount of cash in their bounty pool that doesn't exist, but the yards they gave up last year."

Sam Bradford will look to attack a Falcons defense that surrendered 357 yards in the air to Drew Brees last week. Bradford passed for 299 and 2 touchdowns in a performance that even Bernie Kosar would commend.

"General William Tecumseh Sherman torched Atlanta," Bradford said, "and he wasn't even that good of a quarterback. So why shouldn't I be able to do the same? A lot of people say I can't do it. My fat contract says I should do it."

It's a shootout, but Ryan outguns Bradford, and Steven Jackson cashes in with two short scoring bursts.

Atlanta wins, 34-31.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-6½)

The Ravens have had ten days to digest last Thursday's 49-27 debacle in Denver, especially Terrell Suggs, whose undergraduate degree from Ball So Hard University was upgraded to a master's degree from Balled So Hard University, courtesy of Professor Peyton Manning.

"Peyton fizzled my Sizzle," Suggs said. "Fo' shizzle.

"But Brandon Weeden is no Peyton Manning. When Weeden calls an audible, it's in the form of a question. And the defense always has an answer for it. But let's not discount his wide receivers. Greg Little and Josh Long are more than capable. See what I just did there? I made like a traffic cop and 'cited' them."

The Ravens' defense will likely come hard at Weeden, who was sacked six times and threw three interceptions last week against Miami.

"Brandon simply has to play better," Rob Chudzinski said. "This city demands it. A lot of people want to see him gone, but right now, he's our only option at quarterback. So fans need to understand that the more likely scenario is me making lemonade out of a lemon than Brandon making a noose out of a bed sheet."

Baltimore wins, 31-17.

Carolina @ Buffalo (+3)

Hey, what happened when Rae Carruth placed a suitcase full of worthless O.J. Simpson memorabilia in his getaway car?

"Let me guess," said Buffalo head coach Doug Marrone. "He had some 'junk in the trunk?' Anyway, forget O.J. Buffalo's new hero is E.J., E.J. Manuel. He's already got a cult following to rival that of the Goo Goo Dolls. His No. 3 jerseys are selling like 'Buffalo: AFC Champions 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993' t-shirts in the Sudan."

The Panthers head to upstate New York burdened by a tough 12-7 loss to the Seahawks in Charlotte last week. Cam Newton managed only 163 yards of total offense, but expects much more out of himself come Sunday.

"This is a must win game for us. We cannot afford to go 0-2. If that happens, that 'S' on my chest will be replaced by an 'Oh S!' on my chest. And Ron Rivera surely can't afford to go 0-2. 0-2 is that much closer to 0-3, and 0-3 means Ron can say 'Au revoir.' That's also known as a trip to the 'French Rivera.'"

Newton passes for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Panthers' defense forces 3 turnovers.

Carolina wins, 27-23.

Minnesota @ Chicago (-6½)

Adrian Peterson's first touch last week resulted in a 78-yard touchdown run for the league's reigning MVP. Just to put that into perspective, Chicago running backs Matt Forte and Michael Bush combined for 65 yards rushing in the Bears 24-21 win over the Bengals last week.

"Well," Peterson said. "That just took the wind out of my sails. And speaking of sails, they are always at full mast out on Lake Minnetonka, especially when it's on the SS Services Rendered, where the attendants always make sure you get where you want to go.

"On another note, I'm teaming with TNT and ESPN to pitch an idea for a new show to the NFL Network. It's about me, a detective, a medical examiner, and two ESPN radio hosts. It's called 'MVP & Russillo & Isles.'"

Mark Trestman's debut as Chicago coach was a success, as a late comeback fueled the Bears' 24-21 win over the Bengals.

"I'm beginning to grasp the nuances of Trestman's offensive scheme," Jay Cutler said. "As you would expect, he's fed it to me like a baby. Coach is a great teacher, mostly because he looks like one."

Matt Forte posts a rushing and receiving touchdown, and the Bears' defense holds Peterson to 95 yards and only 1 touchdown, and Christian Ponder to the same.

Chicago wins, 28-20.

Washington @ Green Bay (-7½)

The 1-0 Redskins head to Green Bay, where the nickname "Packers" causes no resentment, just civic pride from the NFL's only publicly-owned team.

"Indeed," Rodgers said, "we are publicly-owned. And most members of our defense are new shareholders. How can you not 'take stock' after giving up almost 500 yards of total offense to the 49ers? That's awful.

"Now, I hear Jim Harbaugh called out Clay Matthews for his slap of Joe Staley. I can assure you that it wasn't a dirty play. How do I know? Because my good buddy Ryan Braun took a look at the replay and said, 'It's clean.'"

After a terrible start against the Eagles, the Redskins roared back in the second half to make a game of it before falling 33-27. Robert Griffin III and company know a good start is imperative in Green Bay.

"The Eagles shut me down for three quarters," RG3 said. "That's 13 less than Mike Shanahan did this preseason."

Green Bay wins, 30-27.

Tennessee @ Houston (-9½)

The Titans whipped the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, sacking Ben Roethlisberger five times and generally abusing him. It was a satisfying result for senior assistant defensive coach Gregg Williams, who was hired to instill a killer instinct in a defensive that was pushed around all too often last year.

"Big Ben's felt better after motorcycle wrecks," Williams said.

The Texans rallied for 17 fourth-quarter points to pull out a 31-28 win in San Diego on Monday night, fueled by Brian Cushing's interception return for a touchdown that knotted the score.

"It's great to have Cushing back," Gary Kubiak said. "Obviously, he makes this team better. He is what we like to call a 'Performance-Enhancing Defender,' or 'PED.'"

In a game in Houston between the Titans and Texans, you can expect fans to be nothing less than well-oiled. A liquored-up and capacity Reliant Stadium crowd of 71,000, which includes Bum Phillips, Earl Campbell, and Mike Renfro, witness a 27-13 Houston win.

Miami @ Indianapolis (-3)

Just one week into the season, and Mike Wallace, Miami's $60 million wide receiver, is unhappy after a registering only one reception for 15 yards in the Dolphins' 23-10 win at Cleveland last week.

"If Calvin Johnson is 'Megatron,'" said Miami's Joe Philbin, "then Wallace must be 'Mini-skirt.'

"We'll have to be better on the ground as well to beat the Colts. Last week, we rushed 23 times for 20 yards. As they say, football is a game of inches."

The Colts rode a heroic effort from Andrew Luck to repel the visiting Raiders last week, 21-17.

"As the great Ric Flair said," Luck said, "'To be the man, you've got to replace the man.' Woooo!'"

The Dolphins come after Luck, and amidst a third quarter pileup, he suffers a shin injury courtesy of a Figure Four Leglock administered by Cameron Wake, who was taught the move by Richie Incognito, the dirtiest player in the game. Miami gets their rushing attack in gear, and Caleb Sturgis boots the game-winning field goal.

Miami wins, 23-20.

Dallas @ Kansas City (-1)

If you think the Washington Redskins' nickname is offensive, than you must be absolutely appalled by the Cowboys/Chiefs matchup, in Arrowhead Stadium of all places.

"That's not the case here," Andy Reid said. "The natives are restless, but only because the Chiefs went 2-14 last year. But you can bet that there's not a person here that finds that offensive. And if you really want to bet on it, you can do so at an Indian casino."

The Cowboys forced 6 turnovers last week, and needed every one of them to secure a 36-31 win over the hated Giants in Dallas last Sunday night.

"I sense that the Chiefs plan to pressure me come Sunday," Tony Romo said. "Call it a gut feeling, or maybe that's just a rib pushing on a lung.

"Now, is Kansas City in Missouri or Kansas? Never mind. I can find the answer under my flip-top wrist band."

Alex Smith and the Chiefs move to 2-0 with a 30-24 win.

San Diego @ Philadelphia (-7½)

The Chip Kelly offense debuted to rave reviews, as the Eagles raced to a 33-7 lead in Washington and held on for a 33-27 win over the Redskins.

"We're excited to be playing our first game at Lincoln Financial Field," Michael Vick said. "And no one's more excited than Riley Cooper. Why? Because he really fond of his home whites.

"And speaking of 'shady' characters, LeSean McCoy was awesome against the Redskins. He actually hurdled one Washington defender. Obviously, LeSean shows no regard for the Redskins name, either."

The Chargers blew a 28-7 lead in the third quarter, eventually losing 31-28 in Mike McCoy's debut as head coach. Now, after a grueling cross-country flight, the Bolts must now prepare for the Eagles' up-tempo offense.

"It's time to bring an offense to a screeching halt," Philip Rivers said. "Where's Norv Turner when you need him?"

Philadelphia wins, 31-20.

Detroit @ Arizona (pick)

Larry Fitzgerald finally has a quarterback he can count on in Carson Palmer. The two hooked up for two scores in last week's 27-24 loss in St. Louis.

"Now all I need is a nickname," Fitzgerald said. "How about 'Larry the Able Guy?'"

The Lions high-powered offense was on full display in Detroit's 34-24 win over the Vikings last week, as Reggie Bush amassed 191 yards rushing and receiving to go along with two scores.

"The Minnesota defense is a lot like Kim Kardashian," Bush said. "There's always an opening. And she's a lot like Ndamukong Suh — her film's been reviewed almost as much as his.

"Now, Suh was fined $100,000 by the league for his low block on Minnesota's John Sullivan. That's no slap on the wrist, which would probably get Suh $25,000. But he did apologize. As they say, it takes a big man to apologize. And that's probably the only reason Suh did, because he's 6'4," 307 pounds."

Arizona wins, 26-24.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+3)

Is there a defense in New Orleans? Last week's 23-17 win over Atlanta would seem to suggest that. The Saints' defense, built by new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, shut down the vaunted Falcons' offense, giving New Orleans an early lead in the NFC South.

"You might know that Rex Ryan is my twin brother," Ryan said. "Boy, how times have changed for us. Now, I'm the fat one."

The Bucs embark on a tough two-game stretch, with a date at New England following Sunday's contest.

"Speaking of stretches," Greg Schiano said, "it is a stretch to consider Josh Freeman an elite quarterback. He was once team captain. Not anymore. His teammates didn't select him as captain this year. Josh is close to getting my no-confidence vote, as well."

New Orleans wins, 31-24.

Denver @ NY Giants (+4½)

The Giants' defense has the difficult task of scheming to slow Peyton Manning, who seems better than ever with a full season under his belt after several neck surgeries.

"Peyton looks stronger than ever," Justin Tuck said. "His doctors have said that his nerves are regenerating at a good pace. That means come playoff time, he should be plenty 'nervous.'

"Offensively, we have to get more out of our running game. Brandon Jacobs just rejoined the team. Jacobs is a beast from anywhere inside the one-yard line. Like many of the Giants, he's prone to taking a dive."

Fresh off a career-high 7 touchdowns in the Broncos' 49-22 win over Baltimore, Peyton Manning heads to New Jersey for what he hopes will be the first of two trips to MetLife Stadium this season.

"Of course," Manning said, "I don't expect to throw seven touchdown passes in every game. That's asking too much of me. Heck, that's asking too much of some AFC divisions."

The Manning's combine for 7 touchdowns, with 4 for Peyton, 3 for Eli, and none for the hapless Archie, again. The Broncos get a solid defensive effort from cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who, like his cousin Antonio's DNA, is all over the place. DR-C has two picks, and the Broncos leave town with a 37-31 win.

Jacksonville @ Oakland (-5½)

Already playing with a sprained thumb on his right hand, Blaine Gabbert suffered a cut in the same hand that required 15 stitches in the Jags' 28-2 loss to the Chiefs last week. He's out for the game in Oakland; Chad Henne will get the start.

"Despite his troubles," Gus Bradley said, "Blaine still reminds many of former Jacksonville great Mark Brunell. But only in that his right hand is useless."

Many are calling this the "Jadeveon Clowney Bowl," with the loser holding the inside track to the No. 1 pick in the 2014 draft. In other words, it's such a big game, it could make Clowney return to school for his senior year.

Oakland wins, 28-12.

San Francisco @ Seattle (-2½)

The 49ers and Seahawks battle for early control of the NFC West, a division many consider the NFC's toughest. Sunday's matchup promises to be physical and heated between two teams that really don't like each other.

"We know the Seahawks will be fired up," Jim Harbaugh said, "and so will the crowd. Let's just hope the '12th Man' refers to the fans and not the officiating crew."

Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson have an unusual bet riding on the outcome of Sunday night's game — the loser has to shave an eyebrow. Give the "Edge" to Wilson, because he'll be the one shaving.

San Francisco wins, 20-13.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-6)

The Bengals welcome the Steelers to the Jungle, as both teams look for their first win of the year. It's a big game for James Harrison, as well, as the former Steeler linebacker looks to get his hands on Ben Roethlisberger.

"You've got it all wrong," Harrison said. "I don't want to get my hands on him. I'm James Harrison — I want to get my helmet on him. I've caused so many concussions, one day I'll be forced to make a paltry settlement to satisfy my victims."

With center Maurkice Pouncey out for the year and an unpredictable running game, the Steelers will have to rely on their defense to carry them in Cincinnati. Defensive coordinator Dick LaBeau, who has over 40 years of coaching experience, has a plan.

"Indeed I do," LaBeau said. "As always, the secret is having Troy Polamalu running around like a wild Samoan, forcing the quarterback to guess. Is Troy blitzing? Is he dropping back into coverage. Will Troy appear in my shower, extolling the benefits of Head And Shoulders? Is Troy's calf muscle more explosive than Polamalu himself?"

Cincinnati wins, 23-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:45 PM | Comments (0)

Why the Coyotes May Finally Work

You have to hand it to Phoenix Coyotes fans that have stuck with their team. They've been through a lot, from an arena with obstructed views for 1/4 of the upper deck to a head coach with no head coaching experience to bankruptcy to failed buyer after failed buyer. They've lost star players due to financial reasons, had players openly question the viability of the team, and had hopes dashed by empty suitors too many times to count.

Through it all, the league insisted on keeping the team there. Pundits outside of the southwest may have wondered why, as if the team was a Gary Bettman vanity project (remember, the much-maligned NHL commissioner stuck his neck out to save the Ottawa Senators, Edmonton Oilers, Buffalo Sabres, and Pittsburgh Penguins, as well). The real reason why the NHL wants Phoenix to succeed comes purely down to numbers; when you look at the metro area's size and demographics, a successful Coyotes franchise would translate well to the NHL's bottom line.

So why is this time different? Unlike the initial rush of the Jeremy Roenick/Keith Tkachuk era, the Coyotes actually have an arena properly capable of watching NHL hockey. Unlike the Wayne Gretzky/Mike Barnett era, the Coyotes actually have a strong coach and GM in place. And unlike pretty much anytime over the last fifteen years or so, the Coyotes have ownership that will provide stability.

Stability is the key word; without it, teams have difficulty retaining star players and wind up relying on young prospects before they're ready. This causes a roster shuffle that fails to allow chemistry to develop which, in most cases, hinders long-term success. Stability is the foundation to any successful on-ice product.

But what fans in the seats? Detractors eagerly point to the Coyotes' less-than-stellar attendance numbers over the years, though just about any franchise will experience attendance problems when ownership is apathetic or doesn't plan on staying. The other key factor to attendance problems is a prolonged poor product. Younger fans may not remember a decade ago, when tickets for the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins could be had for pretty cheat, and most nights saw empty seats masquerading as fans. Stability on and off the ice is the key to a successful franchise.

Of course, there's no guarantee that the Coyotes will be successful. However, the team's combination of absent ownership and poor management has constantly put the Coyotes behind the 8-ball. For the first time, they have all their proverbial ducks in a row (no, not Anaheim Ducks), meaning that Don Maloney and Dave Tippett only have to focus on the task at hand — and that business-like approach will trickle down to the players, who no longer have to answer questions about a possible move to Seattle or Quebec City. And for their fans, they can finally breathe easy and enjoy the drop of the puck.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:06 AM | Comments (0)

September 11, 2013

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 26

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished sixth at Richmond, his 13th top-10 result of the year, and will start the Chase For the Cup as the top seed.

"Ten weeks from now," Kenseth said, "I could be holding the Sprint Cup championship trophy. Hopefully, I won't have to hand it to the champion.

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished 40th in the Federated Auto Parts 400 and has now finished 28th or worse in the last four races. He will start the Chase seeded second, three points behind Matt Kenseth.

"You'll have to forgive me if I seem a little distracted," Johnson said. "My wife and I just welcomed our second daughter. Finally, I have a good excuse for a crappy finish.

"Now that makes two girls who know who their daddy is. Now I need to convince 11 drivers of the same thing."

3. Kyle Busch — Busch finished 19th at Richmond, and will start the Chase seeded second, 3 points behind Matt Kenseth. Kyle's brother Kurt also qualified for the Chase, and will start 15 points out of the lead.

"I've got a brother in the Chase," Busch said. "Clint Bowyer's got a 'homey' in the Chase.

"NASCAR is investigating Bowyer's 'spin.' Was it an accident, or was it 'Clin-tentional?'"

4. Carl Edwards — Edwards nabbed his second win of the year, leading 46 laps on his way to the win in the Federated Auto Parts 400. His second win of the year gave him the fourth seed in the Chase, 9 points behind Matt Kenseth.

"I guess I have to thank Clint Bowyer for spinning," Edwards said. "It probably cost Ryan Newman the race. Apparently, Tony Stewart isn't the only driver who's screwed Newman this year.

"I 'flipped off' my car after the race. Newman and Jeff Gordon 'flipped off' Bowyer."

5. Joey Logano &mdash Logano finished 22nd at Richmond, one lap down, as Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski failed to qualify for the Chase. Logano will start the Chase seeded sixth, 12 points out of the lead.

"It's too bad about Brad," Logano said. "I relayed my sentiments on Twitter to @sucks. But Brad is a great teammate. I'm not sure he'd spin for my sake, but he did pick me to win the Sprint Cup. Hopefully, it won't be the Kes' of death.

6. Kevin Harvick — Harvick came home 11th at Richmond as Richard Childress teammate Paul Menard finished fifth. Harvick will start the Chase seeded fourth, 9 points out of first.

"I'm the only RCR driver in the Chase," Harvick said. "And no Clint Bowyer spin, intentional or otherwise, could have changed that."

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 13th at Richmond, failing in his last chance to win before the Chase For the Cup. Earnhardt will head to Chicagoland tied for the bottom seed in the Chase.

"On the bright side," Earnhardt said, "Time Warner Cable will sponsor my car for five races. Of course, a lot of satellite users may have a point when they say, 'You can't win with cable.' My fans have been waiting a long time to say, 'It's about 'Time.'' Unfortunately, it's got nothing to do with my first win in a long time."

8. Clint Bowyer — With Ryan Newman leading with six laps to go, Bowyer mysteriously spun, and the ensuing chain of events enabled Bowyer's Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Martin Truex, Jr. to make the Chase field.

"Many want to know if my arm is hurting," Bowyer said. "The answer is 'yes.' My arm is hurting, because Truex won't stop shaking my hand."

9. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished 12th at Richmond as Roush Fenway teammate Carl Edwards took the win. Biffle will start the Chase sixth, 12 points behind top seed Matt Kenseth.

"I may be the least-talked about Chaser," Biffle said, "but I think I can it all. My gas man seems to agree, because even he calls me 'silent but deadly.'"

10. (tie): Kurt Busch — Busch led 73 laps and finished second at Richmond to sew up a spot in the Chase For the Cup. He will start eighth in the Chase, 12 points out of first.

"NASCAR is investigating Clint Bowyer's fishy spin," Busch said. "Was it a case of team orders? I know all about team orders — that seems to be how I got my job with Stewart-Haas Racing because Stewart wasn't too fond of it."

10. (tie): Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished 14th in the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond. He will start eighth in the Chase, 12 points behind top seed Matt Kenseth.

"I had a pretty good view of Bowyer's spin," Kahne said. "He just lost it — his self-respect, that is."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:38 PM | Comments (0)

September 10, 2013

NFL Week 1 Report

I've been writing weekly NFL power rankings for Sports Central for a decade. This season, we're tweaking the format to cover a wider range of topics, while going more in-depth on others, and I hope regular readers will appreciate the change in direction. I'll still look for interesting stats to point out, still go after coaches and announcers who do ridiculous things, still pepper in the occasional fantasy football advice or embarrassingly wrong prediction. Let's jump right in:

Thursday Night Opener

Denver Broncos 49, Baltimore Ravens 27

* I made a note when Peyton Manning threw his fourth touchdown pass: Manning ties Brett Favre for most 4-TD games, 23. Another note later: Manning's third game with 6 TDs, most in history. And finally: 7 TDs. First since Joe Kapp in 1969. I know Colts fans are excited about Andrew Luck, but I think they gave up on Peyton about five years too early. Maybe Luck will be the NFL's best QB in 2017, but right now, Manning would give them a better chance to win.

* Shaun Phillips had a nice second half, but with Elvis Dumervil gone and Von Miller suspended, Denver's lack of pass rush was the one obvious weak point from an otherwise stellar showing. If this team falls short of expectations, it will be from deficiencies in its run game and pass rush.

* Also less than stellar, actually: Danny Trevathan dropping an easy touchdown at the 2-yard line. When DeSean Jackson did the same thing in Week 2 of 2008, I wrote that his premature celebration "may have been the single stupidest play I have ever seen in an NFL game. He literally threw away a touchdown!" Trevathan did the same thing, and it caused a momentum shift that nearly put Baltimore back in the game. But you know, the celebration would be so much less cool if you drop the ball in the back of the end zone.

* The Ravens allowed 49 points against Denver, the most in franchise history. Their 22-point loss was the worst opening-week margin of defeat ever by a defending Super Bowl champion. Those of us who predicted mediocrity from the Ravens this year have been criticized for disrespecting the champs, and even Joe Flacco complained that people still don't think they're a good team. Hey, everyone thought the Ravens were pretty good last year. This isn't the same team. Eight of the 22 Super Bowl starters are gone, not on the roster.

The Ravens couldn't cover Denver's tight end on Thursday. Maybe because they lost both starting safeties. They gave up a bunch of completions over the middle. Maybe because they lost their starting inside linebackers. They didn't make big plays in the passing game. Maybe because they were without Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Baltimore also has injury problems already, losing Jacoby Jones and Michael Oher on Thursday night.

* The NBC team covering the game repeatedly pointed out that Baltimore failed to use a replay challenge on Wes Welker's 3rd-and-9 reception, the beginning of a big momentum swing in Denver's favor. I don't deny that some things would have gone a little differently, but the Broncos won by more than three touchdowns, and that doesn't even count the one Trevathan threw away. Baltimore could challenge that play, change the momentum and all that, and still would have lost by double-digits. The difference in this game wasn't one play; the difference was that the Broncos were a lot better.

Sunday's Games

Tennessee Titans 16, Pittsburgh Steelers 9

* The Steelers already face massive injury issues. Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey and third-down back LaRod Stephens-Howling both tore ACLs in Week 1, while LB Larry Foote tore his biceps. All three will miss the remainder of the season.

* Troy Polamalu has lost a step. Maybe two steps. Early in the second quarter, a pass got deflected high in the air. Polamalu dove for it and missed. It was a tough play, but it's one he would have made a few years ago.

* Tennessee's offensive line looks good. Rookie Chance Warmack was impressive against the Steelers.

Detroit Lions 34, Minnesota Vikings 24

* Adrian Peterson ran for a 78-yard TD on his first carry. At halftime, he had 70 rushing yards. Peterson finished the game with 18 carries for 93 yards. It was a great first week, but after that first torpedo, he had 17 attempts for 15 yards.

* Peterson's stated goal this season is 2,500 rushing yards. He's currently on pace for 1,488. He'll have to average 160.5 per game to meet his goal.

* I know Reggie Bush's fantasy owners are thrilled with his 191-yards-and-a-touchdown performance, but he had two more TDs reversed on replay. Calvin Johnson also had a TD called back on replay, and DeAndre Levy had a return TD nullified by penalty.

Miami Dolphins 23, Cleveland Browns 10

* The Dolphins intercepted Brandon Weeden three times before halftime. They were losing at halftime, 7-6. Miami finished the game with 23 rush attempts for 20 yards, including 10 for 3 yards by starter Lamar Miller.

* The Browns' new head coach, Rob Chudzinski, drew praise for his offense in Carolina, especially his work with quarterback Cam Newton. In Chudzinski's first week with Cleveland, Weeden finished with 6 sacks, 3 picks, and a 49.1% completion percentage. The Browns went 1/14 on third downs.

New England Patriots 23, Buffalo Bills 21

* The Patriots were losing with :06 left, and their much-hyped rookie receivers (WR Kenbrell Thompkins and TE Zach Sudfeld) fell flat in Week 1. But the stats make this game look like an easy win. New England had 11 more first downs than Buffalo, almost 150 more yards, a 15:30 advantage in time of possession. They need to limit turnovers and do a better job in the red zone.

* Buffalo DB Leodis McKelvin was credited with 4 passes defensed. That's a lot.

* This was the 10th season in a row New England has won its first game.

Seattle Seahawks 12, Carolina Panthers 7

* Missing three pretty significant defensive players — CB Brandon Browner and DEs Chris Clemons and Cliff Avril — the Seahawks still held Cam Newton and the Carolina offense to 7 lonely points and under 250 yards. On the road. Last year, Seattle was 3-5 in road games. This week, traveling all the way across the country and facing a team that is probably at least average, they came away with a win. Look out, NFC.

Chicago Bears 24, Cincinnati Bengals 21

* A.J. Green (162 yds, 2 TD) and Brandon Marshall (104 yds, TD) both had big games. Other than that, both offenses were pretty quiet. Matt Forte averaged 2.6 yds/att, but salvaged his stat line with a rushing touchdown and 41 receiving yards.

* With 1:15 left, the Bears were up 24-21, with 3rd-and-6 around midfield. A 1-yard run left Chicago about to punt, giving Cincinnati about a minute to drive for a game-tying field goal. But a roughness penalty on Rey Maulaluga, after the play was over, gave the Bears an automatic first down and let them run out the clock. Something very similar happened in the Buccaneers/Jets game.

New York Jets 18, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

* Bucs are ahead, 17-15, with :15 left in the game. Jets have the ball just shy of midfield, with maybe two plays to gain about 15 yards and get into possible field goal range. Geno Smith scrambles for 10, and Tampa's Lavonte David hits him out of bounds. Fifteen-yard penalty, 1st-and-10 at the 30. Nick Folk hits the game-winning, 48-yard field goal. Maulaluga cost his team a chance to tie, but David's foul probably cost his team the win. These were both senseless penalties, dead-ball fouls that happened after the play.

* The Buccaneers finished with 13 penalties for 102 yards. David's was the most obvious, but in a 1-point game, you could find the difference in several places. Even with a high total like 9 or 10, the Bucs probably still would have won. They've got to get that under control.

* No one expects Smith to be Russell Wilson or RG3. But as long as he's not Mark Sanchez, the Jets could be surprisingly okay this year. Everyone's been anticipating another year of horrific QB play, and if the Jets can elevate that to mediocre, they'll be a lot better than people expect.

* Tampa has never won a road game against the Jets (0-7).

Indianapolis Colts 21, Oakland Raiders 17

* Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor leads the NFL in rushing (112 yds). Not a real big week for RBs.

* I am taking bets, right now, that say Pryor — not Darren McFadden — leads Oakland in rushing this season.

Kansas City Chiefs 28, Jacksonville Jaguars 2

* A blocked punt gave Jacksonville its only score. With several experienced QBs available in the offseason, the Jags decided to stick with Chad Henne and Helpless Blaine Gabbert. This is the result.

* Jamaal Charles left this game with a quad injury, but he is reportedly fine and should be good to go in Week 2.

* If the Chiefs perform that way in all their games, Andy Reid is going to win Coach of the Year.

New Orleans Saints 23, Atlanta Falcons 17

* The Saints look better now that Drew Brees has a coach again. I think last year, he pretty much did whatever he wanted. Mostly throw.

* Something that never changes: Brees spreading the wealth. Part-time RB Darren Sproles led the Saints in receptions (6) and yards (88).

* With Roddy White limited by a high ankle sprain, Harry Douglas had 4 catches for 93 yards and got some looks in the red zone. White's fantasy owners may want to consider Douglas as a short-term fix.

St. Louis Rams 27, Arizona Cardinals 24

* The Cardinals have a real QB again. Carson Palmer passed for 327 yards on Sunday, more than any Arizona QB had in a single game last season. His 96.6 passer rating was the team's highest since Kevin Kolb in Week 3 of last season.

* Palmer's presence has rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald. Following his worst season as a pro, Fitzgerald just posted his best single-game fantasy numbers since 2011.

* Big defensive games for St. Louis: Robert Quinn picked up 3 sacks and Janoris Jenkins defensed 2 passes.

San Francisco 49ers 34, Green Bay Packers 28

* Missing two of their best defensive players (Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward), the Packers put up a surprisingly strong fight. Allowing 34 points doesn't sound good, but the 49ers are pretty tough to stop.

* This was the 14th 400-yard passing game in 49ers history. The first 10 were all Joe Montana and Steve Young. Then two by Jeff Garcia, one by Tim Rattay in 2004, and now Colin Kaepernick almost 10 years later.

* During three seasons in Baltimore, Anquan Boldin never reached 1,000 receiving yards. He was always close, with averages of about 60 receptions, 875 yards, and 5 TDs. But that offense was never really about the passing game, certainly not passing to wide receivers. Boldin was one of the best WRs in the game, but his stats didn't show it. In San Francisco this year, they're going to show it.

* The big story in this game was Green Bay getting hosed by the officials. Off-setting dead-ball fouls should have left San Francisco with 4th-and-2 and a probable field goal attempt. The officiating crew screwed up and gave the Niners a replay of 3rd-and-6. Kaepernick threw a touchdown pass, so that was probably a 4-point swing. These replacement refs don't even know the rules. An experienced referee like Bill Leavy would never make that kind of mistake.

Dallas Cowboys 36, New York Giants 31

* I watched America's Game of the Week, and then I watched America's Game of the Week. Obviously there are people in marketing who think this is a terrific slogan, since both FOX and NBC use it. But I just can't imagine that there are really people who think, "Oh, I was going to catch a movie, but if this is America's Game of the Week, I'd better watch this, instead." I think FOX should have to give up the name because it's misleading, and NBC should give up the name because it's stupid.

* The Giants committed turnovers on their first three drives. After grabbing just 16 takeaways all of last seasons, the Cowboys already have 6. Nice job, Monte Kiffin.

* Hustle play of the week: DeMarco Murray sprinted 90 yards to tackle Ryan Mundy at the 1-yard line. The Giants never reached the end zone, so Murray's hustle saved 4 points. Murray also had 86 rushing yards and 8 catches. As long as he stays healthy, Murray should be one of the most productive RBs in the league.

Monday Night Double-Header

Philadelphia Eagles 33, Washington Redskins 27

* The Eagles ran 53 plays in the first half, just 24 in the second half.

* In that first half, Philadelphia gained 21 first downs, while Washington ran 21 plays. Washington also committed 7 penalties before halftime, a ratio of one penalty per three offensive plays. Yikes.

* ESPN did an awesome job of keeping up with Chip Kelly's frenetic offense, working in prompt replays without missing the beginning of the next play.

* Washington looked terrible in the first half, but if they play the rest of the season the way they played the last 25 minutes, they're going to win the NFC East again. Maybe it just took a while to adjust to Kelly's offense and to get Robert Griffin III in sync.

Houston Texans 31, San Diego Chargers 28

* ESPN did a notably poor job with replays in the late game. In the first half, Trent Dilfer specifically asked for a replay that was never shown. In the second half, the same thing happened to Chris Berman. The first game was handled superbly, but show some love to the West Coast and night owls.

* This game was much closer on the scoreboard than the stat sheet. Houston's advantages: + 12 first downs, + 186 yards of offense, + 13:02 time of possession.

* San Diego's last five drives: three-and-out, three-and-out, interception, three-and-out, three-and-out. No first downs.

* The Texans threw a ton of screens and short passes on Monday. Going forward, teams are going to be ready for that.

Miscellaneous

* This is from almost four years ago, but I came across it again recently, and it's still one of my all-time favorite clips from an NFL game: a pigeon, with passably Raider colors, flying down the field to cover a kickoff return. It didn't break contain until the play was decided!

* Last season, there were 13 safeties scored in the regular season. There were four in Week 1 of 2013.

* If your fantasy team is in trouble and you're desperate for a running back, you might consider Jackie Battle (TEN) and Ronnie Brown (SD). Neither one is a game-breaker, but if you just need a backup or bye-week fill-in, those guys are probably available. Battle scored 8 fantasy pts in Week 1, while Brown had 4 standard and 6 PPR. That's not going to win your league, but it could keep you from losing if your other positions are pretty strong.

* Doing research for my fantasy football draft, I came across some yahoo claiming that low-BMI running backs are at greater risk of injury. That jives with conventional wisdom, but if you think about it, I'm not sure it makes sense. Who's more likely to get injured, a player who goes up the middle, breaks the arm tackle from a lineman, bounces off his fullback, then charges into a linebacker so he'll fall forward, or the quick little guy who sprints outside and goes down on the first hit, maybe runs out of bounds when there's a defender ready to make the tackle?

The writer seemed interested in statistics, but I think he's working off an unfounded assumption, and if there are numbers to back up that idea, I'd like to see them. Using the same data from my 2011 article on RB size, I found that among players who finished in the top 10 in rushing yardage between 1991-2010, 141 had BMIs greater than or equal to 29.5, while 59 had BMIs below 29.5. Among those bottom 30%, you've got 24 different players. Some of them, like Errict Rhett and Harold Green, were never as promising as Jamaal Charles or C.J. Spiller. Once we sift through the Rhetts and Greens and Adrian Murrells, we're left with about half the group, 13 players who showed talent comparable to the young backs the other author was worried about. Those 13 are: Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber, Adrian Peterson, Ricky Watters, Terrell Davis, Chris Johnson, Warrick Dunn, Brian Westbrook, Eddie George, Chris Warren, Terry Allen, Charlie Garner, and Robert Smith.

Martin had 8 seasons with 300+ carries — more than Emmitt Smith — 4 with over 360. Tiki played 4 seasons with over 300 carries, plus he caught 50+ receptions every year. Neither of them ever suffered major injury. Peterson has been hurt once in a 6-year career, and he bounced back with one of the greatest seasons in history. Watters played 9 years before any major injury, including 4 seasons with over 300 carries. Davis suffered a career-ending injury after his third straight season of 345 or more carries, with additional workload in the playoffs each season. Johnson has at least 250 rushes every year of his career, 358 in his 2,000-yard season, and he's never really been hurt. Dunn played 12 seasons and ranks among the all-time top 20 in rush attempts. George carried 300 times in each of his first eight seasons, including a ridiculous 403 in 2000.

I suppose Westbrook could stand as a cautionary example, but he's an obvious exception to the norm, and he delivered two great fantasy seasons (2006-07) before injuries became an issue. If you're looking for breakout stars who won't break out because they can't handle the workload, Westbrook shows the opposite. Warren had back-to-back seasons over 300 carries, ranking as a top-5 fantasy RB both years. Allen did get hurt, and missed the whole 1993 season, but he came back with three straight years of over 250 carries, including huge workloads (and exceptional fantasy production) in 1995-96. Garner is a weird case because he peaked late and had his best season when he was already 30. Smith, apparently healthy, retired following his best season.

Smaller RBs getting injured easily is one of those things everyone "knows" is true, only it's not. I understand why a numbers-oriented writer would think he's being savvy going by BMI instead of weight. But I just don't see any foundation for the belief that low-BMI runners are more vulnerable to injury.

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Top 10

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Denver Broncos
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Houston Texans
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Atlanta Falcons
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Chicago Bears
10. New England Patriots

I have San Francisco hanging on to the top position, but I see those top four as roughly equal right now, and I believe Seattle will beat the Niners at home in Week 2. The Bengals are ranked one spot ahead of the Bears, who just beat them. But the game was in Chicago, Maulaluga's bone-headed penalty cost Cincinnati a chance to win, and injured left tackle Andrew Whitworth should be back soon.

Bottom Three

30. Cleveland Browns
31. Oakland Raiders
32. Jacksonville Jaguars

We're only one game in, but so far, the Jaguars seem like by far the worst team in the NFL. Last week's preseason power rankings are available here.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:09 PM | Comments (1)

September 9, 2013

The Cardinals' Dilemma

After two weeks of a college football season, there's a necessary caveat synonymous with any broad, sweeping judgment for any conference or team: it's still early.

Yet, in college football, more than any other sport, the early games matter due to a system that is reliant on human subjectivity. It's why millions love the sport and are frustrated with it at the same time.

So, when Florida lays an offensive egg and can't back it up with the timely defensive stops that were so crucial to its 11-win season a year ago, that matters. When South Carolina's usually excellent defense gets run over by Todd Gurley, and gives up significantly more yards per play with Jadaveon Clowney on the field, that matters. And when Southern Cal's offense looks overmatched against a team that couldn't stop 11 kittens last year, it matters. You can go on and on, just with games from the weekend.

That's not to say that all of the above teams can't turn their seasons around, and even compete for division or conference titles in November and December. After all, it's still early. But they do have to turn it around from the way they played on the first Saturday of September. Teams don't win much of anything in college winning just over 60 percent of their games.

For all the teams that have been tested, lost and/or given up 550 rushing yards, there are still those that haven't had a test. Baylor looks utterly frightening at the moment, but the Bears are averaging 69.5 points against Wofford and Buffalo. And thanks to a favorable schedule, Baylor probably won't lose until November.

One of those teams that hasn't been tested yet is Louisville. So far the Cardinals have thrashed Ohio 49-7 and FCS Eastern Kentucky 44-7. Ohio has been one of the top clubs in the MAC for a while, but it still normally loses games against teams from conferences with more talent, as was the case with Teddy Bridgewater & Co. The thing is, there's a whole lot of Ohio left on Louisville's current schedule, if you know what I mean.

If we've seen a 2013 Louisville before in the BCS era, we've seemingly seen it every year. Schools from outside the upper tier of conferences have a now-lengthy track record of going undefeated, from Tulane and Marshall in the '90s to Utah, Boise State and TCU since the turn of the millennium. Louisville looks overwhelmingly likely to join them. And yes, while it's still early, a quick run-through of the Cardinals' schedule tells us that.

Louisville remaining road schedule features all teams that have at least one loss, and South Florida and Connecticut have already lost to FCS opposition. The last team on the schedule, Cincinnati, was projected to be Louisville's biggest obstacle to the Big East's American Athletic Conference's BCS bid and an undefeated record. Now, after Cincinnati QB Munchie Legaux suffered an awful knee/leg hyperextension in the team's loss against Illinois. (Note: if you haven't seen it, you have better things to be doing with your time.)

Other than that, Rutgers could give Louisville a game, but the Scarlet Knights also have a loss. Elsewhere in the AAC, Houston is likely to stay unbeaten with Louisville the longest, but that's only because of a Charmin-soft schedule through September. At this point, it seems like a stretch to even think that the Cardinals will play a mere one ranked team until a bowl game.

Of course, the biggest slap in the face to Louisville is that it's all coming, at least conference-wise, a year too early. While Louisville hasn't come close to finalizing its 2014 schedule, we at least know next year's slate will include Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami. If that had been the case for this year, we'd be talking about Louisville as a sure thing for Pasadena on Jan. 6 should it run the table. Also, should Louisville be a consensus top-four, but not top-two team come the end of the regular season, 2014 and its new playoff will feel that much more of an eternity away. But for now, it's "Whomp on fools until nothing remains" and hope for poll chaos.

For this season, I've tried telling myself not to pay attention to rankings until the middle of October or so. But more so than in basketball, where they inherently don't matter, those numbers are inescapable for football. And for better or worse, the ranking next to its name will follow Louisville all season. When looking at the Cardinals' current ranking, No. 8, you would think that would allow for enough time for teams above to beat each other up and for Louisville to rise six spots in three months. The precedent looks nearly hopeless.

The last team to go undefeated from an AAC-like conference was TCU in 2010. The Horned Frogs scored 30 points or more 11 times, 40 or more on six occasions and won by two or more touchdowns 11 times. TCU started the season ranked No. 6 and was on the outside looking in at No. 3 in the BCS come December. And that was with the luxury of playing then-No. 6 Utah in a showdown game in November. No other undefeated team from a comparable conference started as high as TCU or Louisville in the preseason.

Should any two teams from the big five conferences go unbeaten, it's game over for Louisville. And it's even somewhat hard to imagine a scenario where a 1-loss SEC champion finishes below Louisville, as even an eligible Ohio State wouldn't have made the title game over Alabama last year.

In the final season of the BCS, a Louisville team that goes undefeated with flying colors, but gets shut out of championship game consideration will be the final insult in the flawed system's history. Thankfully, next year, this won't have to be the conversation.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 12:49 PM | Comments (0)

September 5, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 1

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Baltimore @ Denver (-9)

Peyton Manning and the Broncos look to avenge last year's painful overtime divisional loss to the Ravens in Denver. Again, the burden falls on the shoulders of Manning, who seeks his elusive second Super Bowl win.

"What's with the giant banner of Joe Flacco outside of Sports Authority Field?" Manning said. "I know Denver wants Flacco to 'hang,' but this is ridiculous.

"We'll have to exact revenge without Von Miller. He was suspended four games for a failed drug test, and two games for trying to pass Mountain Dew as his urine. In fact, Von asked me to provide him with a sample. I politely declined and told him the only pees I make are MVP's."

There were no more disturbing words heard by Ravens fans recently than when Ray Lewis announced that 2012 would be his last year. That is, until these words were uttered on television soon after: "Hi, I'm Tony Siragusa for Depends."

"That is disturbing," John Harbaugh said. "Indeed, the 'Goose' must be 'loose.' You have to admit, Tony is an absorbing character. Of all people, he should know about extra padding. Of course, we'll miss Ray. But, like bloodstained clothing, he's replaceable."

The Ravens jump on the scoreboard first when Flacco finds Jacoby Jones for a 70-yard bomb midway through the first quarter that has the Broncs' Zoo thinking "déjà WTF?!"

Manning strikes back with his trademark precision, finding Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on intermediate-to-deep routes, and Wes Welker, Denver's "Mile Hire," underneath.

Manning throws for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Moore redeems himself, forcing a Flacco fumble on a safety blitz to clinch the win.

Denver wins, 30-24.

New England @ Buffalo (+9)

Quarterbacks are likely to decide Sunday's AFC East contest. That means the Patriots should win 98-0, as three-time Super Bowl champ Tom Brady faces a Bills squad with a muddled QB situation. E.J. Manuel is recovering from knee surgery, Kevin Kolb's brain is encased in tissue paper, and undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel, who's straight outta Pullman, was the likely starter until Manuel was cleared to play Sunday. Journeyman and notorious playboy Matt Leinart was acquired in late August to provide much-needed depth.

"This is a dream come true," Leinart said. "Finally, I'm a member of a team that's named after the one thing I've given most to strippers — bills. I'm just happy I'm not playing for the Buffalo Herpes.

"And speaking of mounting quarterback issues, that's something my lady friends at USC never had a problem with. But E.J. should be 100% soon. That means I'll likely be handed a pink slip. And that will be hard for me to deal with, mostly because I like my lingerie black."

Unlike the Bills, the Patriots only need one quarterback, and Brady is that quarterback.

"First of all," Brady said, "let me say that it was sad to see Tim Tebow cut. I wish Tim nothing but the best. I think he'll eventually find what he's looking for, most likely at ChristianMingle.com and not the NFL.

"This E.J. Manuel kid is the real deal. He is destined for goodness. You know, he has three older brothers — B.J., H.J., and R.J. Of course, you can't believe everything reported on CNN. Unless it's about Aaron Hernandez — then it's true."

Patriots win, 34-13.

Cincinnati @ Chicago (-3)

Lovie Smith is out in Chicago, and Mark Trestman is in, becoming only the third Canadian Football League coach to land an NFL job. Trestman's first order of business was convincing Jay Cutler to set aside his ego for the sake of the team.

"I gave Jay my best Jake 'The Snake' Roberts impression and said 'Trust me,'" Trestman said. "Besides, I'm the 'Trest' man for the job. That's called Canada dry humor.

"Now, there are 60,000 or so fanatics in Illinois who demand satisfaction. But right now, I could care less about the feelings of the Juggalo's, a group that descends upon Cave-In-Rock, Illinois yearly to celebrate music and alcohol, and to pelt washed-up, former MTV reality stars with foreign objects. If only Cutler could be as accurate with his passes to receivers as the Juggalo's are with rock and bottles to Tila Tequila's face, then we're in business."

The Bengals start the season as the favorites of many to topple the Ravens and win the AFC North. Such lofty expectations have been known to bring down even the best of teams. Head coach Marvin Lewis has made it a priority not to let overconfidence hinder the season.

"I've got a problem with the 'big' head," Marvin Lewis said, "but not the 'red' head. That's Andy Dalton, aka 'The Ginger-bred Man.'"

Bears fans celebrate Brandon Marshall's successful return from his third hip surgery with a pre-game cheer of "Hip Hip Hip Hooray!" But the celebration turns sour when Marshall lands awkwardly on his hip and takes himself out of the game. No one is more upset than Derrick Rose, who sprains his thumb switching the television off in disgust.

Cincinnati wins, 24-17.

Miami @ Cleveland (-1)

Tony Soprano's sudden death in June sent shockwaves through the Dolphins community, but only among the tiny percentage of that community who still don't realize that Tony Soprano is not Tony Sparano, and that Sparano is not even the coach of the Dolphins.

"That's right," said Joe Philbin. "I'm in my second year at Miami. Sure, everybody knows the Miami job is a temporary one. But for Christ's sake, don't call me 'Regent' Philbin. I'm just here to use this job as a springboard to greater things, like a sweet college job. Just like Nick Saban.

"And if I'm a miserable pro coach like Saban, then my wishes will be fulfilled. Southwest West Memphis State College of the Freebirds, here I come!"

Cleveland, 5-11 last year, are Browned and determined to improve and at least challenge for a playoff spot. Much of the burden lies on second-year running back Trent Richardson, who rushed for 11 touchdowns on the season.

"You can call me the 'Dawg Pounder,'" Richardson said. "But don't call me the 'Cleveland Steamer' or the 'Brown Load.' This team, and this city, are expecting a lot out of me. And if I play my cards right, I won't give it to them, then I may be able to take my talents to South Beach and a free agent contract."

Cleveland wins, 23-20.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3)

The Falcons were a half away from a Super Bowl berth, but, explicably, skipped the second half of the NFC title game and were outscored 14-0 by the 49ers. The 28-24 loss left Mike Smith with a 1-4 record in playoff games.

"I'd like to borrow a phrase from former Saints coach Jim Mora," Smith said, "and say, 'Playoffs?! Playoffs!? Playoffs?! Playoffs!?' See, that's four 'playoffs,' which is how many I've lost.

"I don't think the Saints defense has a chance of stopping our offense. That defense marches up and down the field just as well as our offense — they just do it backwards."

Sean Payton is back from suspension, eager to put the Saints back in the playoffs and put the bounty scandal far behind him.

"It's great to be back," Payton said. "It's the best feeling in the world. It feels so great, but I can't put a price on it. If I did put a price on it, the price tag would no doubt be on an opposing player's head."

Can the Saints defense stop the high-flying Falcons offense, featuring Julio Jones and Roddy White? Nope. But the Falcons low-flying defense can't stop Drew Brees and a slew of weapons.

New Orleans wins, 34-31.

Tampa Bay @ NY Jets (+3)

What's the top storyline when the Bucs visit MetLife Stadium to face the Jets, the team in perpetual disarray? Is it Darrelle Revis' return to the Meadowlands, or Rex Ryan's egregious mishandling of the Jets quarterback situation?

"Look," said Rex Ryan, "I've been called an MF-er more than Antonio Cromartie on Father's Day. And, like Cromartie, I've got a big problem with 'protection.' That is, 'protecting' Mark Sanchez. Here's the thing, though. There's not an offensive line that can protect him from me."

The Bucs' preseason was void of the drama so prevalent in the Jets' camp. There is no quarterback controversy — Josh Freeman is, and has been, the starter, and Greg Schiano is a no-nonsense head coach who is in no way sexually excited by feet.

"For a man so turned on by feet," Schiano said, "Ryan's legacy is measured in inches.

"Hey, what do the U.S. Open Tennis Championships and the Jets' season have in common? They both share the sound of Flushing."

Rookie Geno Smith gets the start and is impressive, but only in that none of his two passes thrown from the end zone result in safeties. Unfortunately, they result in touchdowns.

Revis scores on an interception, and Josh Freeman throws for 236 yards and 2 scores.

Tampa wins, 27-13.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-7)

It's the start of a brand new season in Pittsburgh, and that can mean only one thing: Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu are both healthy. As the offensive and defensive anchors for the Steelers, their ongoing health is paramount to the team's return to the playoffs.

"I'll tell you what will remain healthy," Mike Tomlin said. "Troy's hair. That's because he uses Head and Shoulders. It's got seven benefits, but not one that can heal a calf muscle. Head and Shoulders is a lot like Big Ben — it's happiest in a bathroom."

The Titans, 6-10 in the AFC South last season, made a significant offseason maneuver with the hiring of Gregg Williams as senior assistant coach for the defense. Williams' addition is expected to improve a squad that ranked 27th in the NFL last year in total defense.

"We were forbidden by the NFL to offer Williams an incentive-based salary," Mike Munchak said. "I'm sure Roger Goodell will be watching Williams closely. Of course, the last thing we intended to do with his hiring was stir the 'pot.'"

Pittsburgh wins, 27-13.

Minnesota @ Detroit (-4½)

Last year, Matthew Stafford set the NFL record for passes attempted, with 727, with 122 of those completed to Calvin Johnson, who set the single-season receiving yardage of 1,964 yards.

"And 17 of those went to the other team," Stafford said. "Luckily, defenses don't have hands like Megatron. Despite those gaudy yardage totals, I was only the 22nd-ranked quarterback in the league in terms of quarterback rating. Of course, that's exactly the kind of efficiency you'd expect from a player from a bankrupt city."

The Vikings finished 10-6 last year and qualified for the playoffs as a wild card team. Minnesota will need more from Christian Ponder in order to prevent defenses from stacking the line to stop Peterson.

"We're looking for some balance on offense," said Jared Allen. "If last year told us anything, it's that Adrian Peterson can't do it all, and Christian Ponder can't do it at all."

The Lions gear their defense towards stopping AP, dropping an extra defender into the box, also known as "safety help," which happens to be the same thing Titus Young seeks when his sidearm won't fire. The Vikings are forced to rely on Ponder, who again proves unreliable, forcing Leslie Frazier to ponder other opportunities.

Detroit wins, 31-22.

Oakland @ Indianapolis (-10)

Who will quarterback the Raiders this season? It looks like the starter will be Terrelle Pryor, who was given the half-hearted starting nod by head coach Dennis Allen. One thing is true: the week 1 starter will be a lot like a shot of whiskey sitting atop a bar in front of Kenny Stabler — it won't be there long.

"With a nickname like the 'Snake,'" Pryor said, "Stabler could have played at Ohio State. But he's a hero of mine. I believe he's had more wives than I've had cars. We both like them fast, and we both don't like paying for them when we're done."

The Colts made the playoffs last year with a 10-6 record, led by rookie quarterback Andrew Luck.

"Just don't call me 'Beginner's' Luck," Luck said. "This year, I plan to give Colts' fans exactly what they want, much like the Lucas Oil Stadium luxury suite attendants, the 'Personal Lubricants.' For the right price, they'll go the extra mile. But don't quote me on that; I don't want to put anything, words or otherwise, in their mouths."

Colts win, 34-17.

Seattle @ Carolina (+3½)

The Panthers host the Seahawks in Charlotte, the home of NASCAR, a place some call the world capital of speed, which makes this, in some respects, a home game for the Seahawks.

"Hey, what's your deal?" Pete Carroll said. "I've had enough of the Adderall jokes. Look, Attention Deficit Disorder is a serious problem, particularly among Seahawks, especially when it results in a suspension. We call that a case of 'ADD and Substract.'"

The Panthers finished strong last year, winning five of their last six, including wins over Atlanta and New Orleans. In 2013, Cam Newton and his cohorts seek to put it all together for a full season, and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

"These Panthers are chomping at the bit to get at the Seahawks," Newton said. "You could say we're 'teething,' not to be confused with 'tithing,' which is how you build a church and/or get a kid into college.

"The Seahawks may very well have the NFL's best defense. And Richard Sherman may be the league's most notorious trash talker. But I've been known to silence people, particularly those questioned by the NCAA."

Newton is known for his "Superman" touchdown celebration, but the physical Seattle defense doesn't let it happen, because they beat the "S" out of Newton.

Seattle wins a hard-fought 22-18 win.

Kansas City @ Jacksonville (+4)

The Jaguars have newly-designed uniforms, featuring a radically redesigned helmet with two-tone, faded colors, and a more-toothy Jaguar logo. It's the organization's first step in lifting the Jags from the ranks of perennial bottom-dwellers in the AFC.

"These uniforms only lack one thing," Blaine Gabbert said. "No, not sequins, but an Arena Football League team.

"As you may know, I suffered a hairline fracture of his right thumb a few weeks ago, and it's certainly altered the way I throw the ball. It's an injury which, if left untreated, could make me a better quarterback."

The Chiefs went big in the offseason, hiring Andy Reid after canning Todd Haley, then trading for Alex Smith, formerly of the 49ers. Hopes are high that the two can help engineer a quick turnaround for a team that went 2-14 last year.

"I was no longer wanted in San Francisco," Smith said. "All the signs were there. You could say the 'writing was on the wall.' And I made a conscious choice to read it. That's one 'read option' I executed successfully."

Kansas City wins, 20-17.

Arizona @ St. Louis (-1)

After years of suffering with the likes of Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Kevin Kolb, Larry Fitzgerald finally has a serviceable quarterback in Carson Palmer,

"Anderson, Skelton, and Kolb are just a few of the many bad quarterbacks I had to put up with," Fitzgerald said. "There were way more. You could say that list is 'incomplete.'"

For the Rams, Jeff Fisher is in his second-year as head coach, and has instilled his brand of hard-nosed, defensive football in St. Louis. The Rams' defense looks to be one of the NFC's best, while Sam Bradford and the offense aim to hold up their end of the bargain.

"Speaking of bargains," Bradford said, "I'm a steal in the 28th round of your fantasy draft. As you may know, I'm one-sixteenth Cherokee Indian. That means my great-great-grandmother was a full-blooded Cherokee. Some of my detractors say that my great-great-grandfather must have been a full-blooded quarterback."

Rams win, 20-19.

Green Bay @ San Francisco (-4½)

The Packers visit Candlestick Park, site of last year's 45-31 loss to the 49ers in the divisional playoffs. It was a stinging defense for Aaron Rodgers, who was outplayed by Colin Kaepernick.

"We're looking for revenge," Rodgers said, "and a defense. And I'm looking for players who will bend to my will. Right now, I call those 'teammates.' On Sunday, I'd like to call them '49ers.'"

The 49ers begin a quest to return to the Super Bowl after a bitter loss to the Ravens in the finale last year. Again, Kaepernick is the key to the 49ers fortunes.

"Not only is Colin the most dynamic quarterback in football," Jim Harbaugh said, "he's the walking embodiment of why cursive writing should still be taught in schools. His ink tells a story, and that story is: I spend a lot of time in tattoo parlors."

Late in the game, with the Packers trailing 23-20, Rodgers turns a busted play into a 17-yard scramble for the winning touchdown, then celebrates by kissing his bicep. A perturbed Kaepernick confronts Rodgers and says, "Hey, that's my move."

Green Bay achieves a measure of revenge with a 27-24 win.

NY Giants @ Dallas (-3)

The Cowboys look for a repeat of last season's opener when they beat the Giants 24-17 in MetLife Stadium. This time, the showdown takes place in Cowboys Stadium, and Jerry Jones believes America's Team has what it takes.

"Believe me when I say it," said Jerry Jones, "but the best quarterback in Texas hasn't even reached his full potential yet. That's because Johnny Manziel is only a sophomore."

With two Super Bowls under his belt, Eli Manning doesn't face the pressure to win the big one that Romo does. But he still feels the pressure of a demanding and fanatical Giants fan base.

"I've already got the monkey off my back," Manning said, "but that doesn't mean I don't have other primates expecting more.

"But I often find myself looking for the same thing most quarterbacks are — three wide receivers with a total of four healthy feet. There sure are a lot of foot injuries here. If anyone in this area should have a foot fetish, it's me."

It's a slugfest, but let's leave Dez Bryant's volatile relationship with his mother out of this. It is indeed a slugfest, but the Romo-to-Bryant connection accounts for two scores, and the Cowboys win, 31-30.

Philadelphia @ Washington (-3½)

Philadelphia has a new coach, Chip Kelly, and a new high-speed offense intent on wearing down opposing defenses. Eagles faithful are hopeful that Kelly's offense will be as prolific as his high-powered Oregon Ducks offense.

"I think this offense could be the league's best," said Eagles wide receiver Riley Cooper. "But then again, I'm prejudiced."

In Washington, Robert Griffin III is ready to play after a pre-season of acquiescing to Mike Shanahan. Let's face it folks. He might have unworldly athletic ability, good lucks, a beautiful wife, and financial security, but Griffin is just like everyone else.

"You mean," Griffin said, "that, like everyone else, I hate Shanahan? Then, yes, I am like everyone else.

"I hesitate to say this before a game against Vick and the Eagles, but Shanahan has kept me on a short leash."

RG3 takes the field to the sound of Van Halen's "Unchained," while Cooper takes the field to the sound of "Jump." Griffin and Vick put up nearly identical statistics, but kicker Kai "Alai" Forbath wins it for the 'Skins (or Generics, depending on your level of political correctness) with a 45-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter.

Washington wins, 30-27.

Houston @ San Diego (+4)

Former Broncos' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was hired as the Chargers' new head coach in January after Norv Turner was fired at the end of San Diego's 7-9 campaign.

"This is still Philip Rivers' team," McCoy said. "Fans in San Diego still love Philip. More importantly, so does Jesus.

"Philip has his work cut out for him. No Charger quarterback has ever led a team to a Super Bowl win, unless you count Drew Brees. Drew made a great decision to let himself be run out of town for Rivers' sake."

Monday's late game may very well be decided by the performance of the two feature backs, Houston's Arian Foster and San Diego's Ryan Mathews. Foster and Mathews have a lot to prove, mostly to decide which will star in Peter Jackson's take on JRR Tolkien's The Hobble. Foster gets the best of the matchup, with 2 short touchdowns to go along with his 26 yards rushing and 19 yards receiving.

Houston wins, 26-23.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:44 PM | Comments (2)

Ranking the Week 1 Upsets

Goodness me. You know me, right? You know how much I love upsets, right?

What an orgy of upsets Week 1 of college football was! Not only did a slew of D1-A teams fall to D1-AA teams (new readers: I refuse to recognize the terms "FCS" and "FBS" much like China refuses to recognize Taiwan), but a couple of them were multiple-possession wins, which is practically unheard of in these already-rare circumstances, and rank them.

6) Southern Utah 22, South Alabama 21

Okay, so this one won't send anyone into a tizzy. South Alabama just transitioned to D1-A and had a woeful first year in the Sun Belt. But Southern Utah themselves had a losing record last year, and has to try to recruit kids to not only come to Utah, but Southern Utah, far from the dizzying blitz of fancy-schmancy Salt Lake City or Ogden.

SUU got the win despite finishing -2 in turnover margin, making it all the more impressive. The Thunderbirds raced out to a 10-0 lead, then South Alabama went on a 21-3 run before SUU came back to with a touchdown and then a field goal as time expired to pull out the win.

5) Northern Iowa 28, Iowa State 20

Paul Rhoads has never had unbeatable teams at Iowa State, but he sticks around because he has a penchant for big upsets (none bigger than coming back to beat Oklahoma State and knock them out of the NC game two years ago) and great halftime speeches. And they did go bowling last year.

This year ... maybe a better halftime speech? Rhoads has to be worried about his run defense, because if there is one area that a Goliath should dominate a David, it's in the trenches. But UNI's David Johnson went off for 199 yards on the ground and 4 touchdowns in a game Iowa State never led.

4) North Dakota State 24, Kansas State 21

Okay, so NDSU are defending D1-AA champs, and came into the game ranked No. 1 in the D1-AA polls. And Kansas State lost a lot of guys from last season. Still, that team was one game away from playing for a national title last year, and now ... this.

Again, rushing was the difference. NDSU: 215 yards rushing. KSU: 41. That means the Bison dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. To ice the cake, NDSU accomplished that rare feat of a D1-AA comeback over a D1-A team. KSU led 21-7 late in the third quarter before NDSU closed them down.

3) Towson 33, Connecticut 18

Towson is coming off a decent year, ending the year ranked No. 17 in D-1AA. UConn only finished 2-5 in the lowly Big East (RIP), but did well enough outside the conference to finish just one win away from bowl eligibility.

But this game ranks higher than the others because unlike all but one No. 1, this game was not a one-possession affair, and Towson is pretty bad most years.

For the third time, I must point out the rushing disparity: 201 for Towson, 81 for UConn. But in case you think that's unduly tempered by Towson's possessions with the game already in hand, check out the Yards Per Rush: 4.0 for Towson, 3.0 for UConn.

2) Eastern Washington 49, Oregon State 46

Oregon State came into the game ranked 25th, so this is only the third or fourth time a D1-AA school has beaten a top-25 D1-A team (Appalachian State over Michigan was the first, but I can't find info on what has happened since).

For such a barnburner, the score was actually closer than the actual game played out on the field. EWU had the edge in yards per pass, yards per rush, and turnovers. Both starting quarterbacks threw for over 400 yards and had staggering completion percentages (76.7% for EWU's Vernon Adams, 86.0% for Oregon State's Sean Mannion)

1) Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19

In 2012, Eastern Illinois had a decent year and won the Ohio Valley Conference, but it wasn't an outstanding year. They got bounced in the first round of the playoffs to the tune of 58-10 to South Dakota State and finished 7-5.

Meanwhile, San Diego State had a banner year by their standards. They finished the season as Mountain West co-champs, knocking off Boise State on the road along the way. They finished 9-4, the best season the Aztecs have had in a long time.

So EIU travels across the country and throttles them. The Panthers outscored San Diego State 33-6 over the final three quarters, thanks to 5 turnovers by the Aztecs. I think Adam Dingwell may not be the man for the SDSU quarterback job. 27-63 (42%) 0 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.

The interesting part about these upsets underscores a point that is becoming clearer every year: as high school programs become more streamlined, there are just more great players, and the talent gap between the haves and have-nots shrink. None of these upsets happened because of fluky things like turnovers ... and before you say, "You just talked about the turnovers in the Eastern Illinois game!" consider that EIU took advantage of those turnovers not to win 24-22, but 40-19.

It's getting to the point where we can say "any given Saturday..." as well as we can say "any given Sunday..." And I love that.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:21 PM | Comments (0)

September 4, 2013

College Station's Most Interesting Man

Like most college football programs, Texas A&M opened its 2013 season Saturday. Like most big programs, the Aggies began the season with an undermatched opponent, in this case the Rice Owls, who competed commendably for a few quarters before falling to the Aggies in the second half. But unlike any other program, A&M features defending Heisman Trophy winner and attention magnet Johnny Manziel.

Before the opening kickoff, much of the national sports media was focused on College Station Saturday, and the events of an otherwise unmemorable game did not disappoint. And yet while a sea of ink, airtime, and server space was devoted to the sport's current object of interest, most of it missed the college football world's most interesting man.

Yeah, yeah, I know. We're supposed to pretend like we care about Johnny Manziel's first half suspension, taunting penalty, and moolah-to-the-heavens hand gestures. But outside of old men pretending to be angry, the defending Heisman winner seems like more of a #yolo satire than an interesting person.

Instead, I find Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin much more interesting. Over the coming seconds, days, and weeks, Sumlin will have to handle Manziel somewhere on the spectrum of "as long as he produces, I don't care" to "I'm cutting bait at the first sign of long-term trouble, and maybe even before that." I hope his tap shoes are broken in.

We already know the NCAA has a Google Alert for "Manziel autograph selling God-forbid-he-makes-anything-off-of-his-own-likeness." And if the faux-procedural punishment-without-evidence is any sign, the Big Blue Circle is just itching to bring the hammer down on someone — anyone — for Manziel's sins. Sumlin's problem is he and A&M will probably be collateral damage in any further Manziel whacking.

This demonstrates the frighteningly misaligned interests of NCAA athlete and NCAA institution and the Preparation H-demanding seat a head coach sits in between them.

Manziel almost certainly won't be the Aggies' starting quarterback on opening day 2014. And baring the most blatant abuse of NCAA rules, it seems unlikely any new judgment against Manziel would be completed during the 2013 season. As far as the NCAA is concerned, Manziel seems untouchable.

Knowing this, Sumlin will have to tread carefully. On one hand, he is coaching a top ten team with a steam engine of momentum behind it. The Aggies' move to the SEC has opened doors for what has been the state's No. 2 program and the recruiting results show it. After beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa and rolling Oklahoma in the bowl season, 2013 is a year of great promise in College Station.

And yet, Sumlin does not have to look very far back in recent history to see how perilously a coach's fate teeters when his star player crosses the NCAA. Ohio State and Jim Tressel saw an unceremonious reversal of fortune in the wake of Terrell Pryor. At some point your wagon is hitched to a player; you cannot help but end up at the same place he does.

What makes Sumlin's situation so interesting is that, unlike Tressel, his star is still only rising above the horizon. As exciting as 2012 was, the Aggies never really challenged in the SEC West and lost twice at home. Had Tressel chosen to throw Pryor to the wolves in Indianapolis, he still would have been the king of the Big Ten. Sumlin needs Manziel to continue building his program, and by proxy, his own reign.

Ah, but there's even more intrigue for the Aggie head coach. His handling of Manziel will be noticed second hand by many important parties. If Sumlin is perceived as being overly harsh with Manziel, it could hurt his standing with recruits. And tacky as it may be, Manziel's Hollywood turn surely appeals to some of A&M's boosters, particularly for a fan base tired of sitting in a burnt orange shadow.

Manziel is exactly the kind of player coaches need to flip mediocre lots, accompanying baggage be damned. Figuring out where to stow those bags on the crowded bandwagon is part of the job.

So let everyone else obsess over Manziel. Enjoy his unbridled athleticism and chuckle at his flamboyance, but don't let anyone tell you the Johnny Football experience is anything but empty calories.

If you're looking for a mental calorie-burner, put yourself in Sumlin's visor. He will have some tough decisions to make in the coming weeks, and because of that, he is College Station's most interesting man in the world.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 5:08 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 25

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kyle Busch — Busch took the lead in the pits during the final caution at Atlanta and sped away on the restart to win the AdvoCare 500. It was Busch's fourth win of the year, tied with Jimmie Johnson and one behind Matt Kenseth.

"How about Trucks Series driver Max Papis getting slapped by a woman after the race in Ontario on Saturday," Busch said. "Max is a veteran of open-wheeled racing, and now is a veteran of open-handed slapping. No one was more offended by this than my brother Kurt — he's no fan of bitch-slapping."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth fell a lap down midway through the Advocare 500, but recovered to finish a solid 12th for Joe Gibbs Racing, as teammate Kyle Busch took the win. Barring a win by Jimmie Johnson or Busch next week in Richmond, Kenseth will be the top seed when the Chase For the Cup begins.

"We'll definitely start at the top of the Chase," Kenseth. "I'm just thrilled to be in it. You know, there are five Chase spots still open, so there will be a lot of clinching at Richmond, particularly among the buttocks of the drivers vying for those five spots."

3. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished 28th at Atlanta, four laps down, after sustaining damage in a restart on lap 32 when Jeff Gordon spun his tires, backing up those behind him. It was Johnson's third consecutive finish outside the top 28, a situation made more palatable by his four wins this year.

"I've had the same engine problem for the last three weeks," Johnson said. "It seems to be stuck in reverse. Luckily, I have four wins, because I surely need something to 'fall back' on."

4. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer was leading on lap 193 when his engine let go, relegating him to a 39th-place finish in the AdvoCare 500, his worst result of the year.

"We were running an experimental engine package," Bowyer said. "I like to call it 'The Clint Bowyer Experiment.' That was also the name of my country and western band; unfortunately, it never 'blew up.'"

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick posted his 13th top-10 finish with a ninth at Atlanta, leading the way for Richard Childress Racing in the Jimmy Johns No. 29 Chevrolet.

"Most importantly," Harvick said, "I clinched a spot in the Chase. I was so excited, I called Tony Stewart and said, 'I'm in!'"

6. Carl Edwards — Edwards led 68 laps at Atlanta, but fell a lap down late and finished 18th, just behind Roush Fenway teammates Greg Biffle and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. in 15th and 16th, respectively.

"I had a spirited battle with Jeff Gordon for the lead midway through the race," Edwards said. "I'm not sure why Gordon is so angry. I know his hauler caught on fire on its way to Atlanta, and I know it had to get hot in there. Maybe he's still 'steamed.'"

7. Joey Logano — Logano's No. 22 Penske Ford was the dominant car at Atlanta, leading 78 laps, but lost the lead in the pits during the final caution. With only 12 laps to catch Kyle Busch in the lead, Logano fell short and settled for second.

"It was a good day for me," Logano said, "but not a good one for my teammate Brad Keselowski. He lost two cylinders, three if you count the Sprint 'Cup' as a cylinder."

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished eighth in the AdvoCare 500, posting his 14th top-10 result of the year. Still winless on the season, Earnhardt looks for a final chance for victory at Richmond.

"It's 'crunch' time for me at Richmond," Earnhardt said, "therefore a great time for Nestle to pay me for an endorsement. Now, I need to finish 32nd or better to clinch a spot in the Chase. Luckily, I don't need a victory to qualify for the Chase. 'IN' is practically the same as 'WIN,' it just lacks a 'W,' just like me."

9. Martin Truex, Jr. — Driving with a broken wrist sustained last week at Bristol, Truex battled his way to a third in the AdvoCare 500. He is 13th in the points standings and currently holds one of the two wildcard spots for the Chase.

"My cast melted during the race," Truex said. "And if things don't go right for me at Richmond, I could be a 'cast off' from the Chase."

10. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished 36th at Atlanta after traffic backed up on a lap 32 restart, damaging the No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevy. He has clinched at least a wildcard spot in the Chase, and looks to better his seeding with a win in Richmond.

"I'm not sure what I'd do if I was slapped by a woman," Kahne said. "I'm sure my decision would be made easier were she wearing leather and chains, though. Like most drivers who want to be the best, I'm into domination."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:28 PM | Comments (0)

September 3, 2013

2013 NFL Preseason Power Rankings

Preseason predictions are intimidating. Since the NFL's expansion and realignment in 2002, only half the playoff field from the previous year reaches the postseason again.

That averages out to 6 teams, so if you're using the previous season to make predictions, a lot of those predictions will be wrong. This season, I'm picking eight playoff teams to repeat, which is high but still in the normal range.

The numbered rankings below are for right now, beginning-of-season strength, and not necessarily a forecast of each team's success over the course of the whole year. However, the brackets show predicted regular-season record, and you'll find postseason predictions at the bottom.

1. San Francisco 49ers [10-6] — A popular Super Bowl pick, but the odds are against them. Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams (1990), only seven teams (out of a possible 46) have appeared in back-to-back Super Bowls, about one team every three years. But it's only happened once since 1998, and even that (2003-04 Patriots) was a decade ago. I don't think the success of the 1990-93 Buffalo Bills should lead anyone to believe San Francisco can stay healthy all season and return to the Super Bowl. I agree the 49ers are a great team, but I think the short offseason is going to catch up with them, most noticeably in the form of injuries.

2. Houston Texans [14-2] — Last season, I wrote that "Matt Slauson may have cost Houston the Super Bowl" by diving at Brian Cushing's knees. Cushing, the best linebacker in the NFL, missed the rest of the season. Houston had started 5-0, winning three of the five games by 20+ points. The team went 7-4 the rest of the way, with only one more 20-point victory, and lost in the playoffs. If Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, J.J. Watt, and Cushing all stay healthy this season, the Texans will have a good shot to win the Super Bowl they missed out on last year. Foster and Cushing are particular injury concerns. Ed Reed steps in to replace Glover Quin, who left for Detroit in free agency.

3. Seattle Seahawks [11-5] — Their most aggressive offseason move, trading for Percy Harvin, backfired when Harvin got injured for the 3,000th time. But this is a great team that played its best football at the end of last season, and the acquisition of former Lions DE Cliff Avril, joining Chris Clemons, gives Seattle a potent pair of bookends on the defensive line. Most of last year's team remains intact, and the Seahawks are on the short list of NFC Super Bowl contenders. They have a really tough schedule.

4. Denver Broncos [12-4] — They went 13-3 last year, and as if they need any more advantages, three of the first four games are at home. The lone road game follows the Thursday night season opener, so the Broncos will get 10 days' rest leading up to it. The team lost offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, who accepted a head coaching position with division rival San Diego, but it added guard Louis Vasquez and wide receiver Wes Welker, while the defense brought in LB Shaun Phillips and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Peyton Manning is a year older, no one's sure who's going to play running back, and star LB Von Miller is suspended for the first 6 games, but it's hard to imagine the Broncos won't repeat as AFC West champs, and it's easy to understand why they're a popular Super Bowl pick.

5. Atlanta Falcons [10-6] — Matt Ryan is underrated. Everyone recognizes that he's a good quarterback, but unless you divert a ton of credit to his teammates, "good" is the wrong word. Great. Last season, Ryan ranked among the NFL's top five in passing yards, TDs, and rating. He had more yardage than Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers, a higher rating than Tom Brady or Drew Brees, and more TDs than anyone besides those four. Atlanta continues to lose defensive contributors, like John Abraham and Brent Grimes, but the offense is so explosive that the Falcons should remain among the best teams in the league. The September schedule is brutal, so don't lose faith if they start 2-2.

6. Cincinnati Bengals [11-5] — Made the playoffs in both of the last two seasons, but they're a young team that's still on the way up. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green continue to impress, and the team used its first two draft picks on offensive "skill" players to upgrade the run game and provide more weapons for Dalton. The defense led the NFL in sacks last year, and figures to be among the league's best once again. Cincinnati signed James Harrison from Pittsburgh, signed star DT Geno Atkins to a big extension, franchised Michael Johnson (11.5 sacks), and drafted Margus Hunt. No one's mentioning the Bengals as a Super Bowl contender, but I think they have to be part of that conversation.

7. Green Bay Packers [11-5] — When Green Bay went 15-1 two years ago, the team actually allowed more yards than it gained. But the Packers combined superb red zone play, mistake-free offense, aggressive takeaways on defense, the fewest penalties in the league, and terrific special teams. That's what they need to get back to this year, and the erratic play of kicker Mason Crosby needs to solidify. With Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews, this team has playmakers to build around, and it should be among the better teams in the league. If Super Bowl XLVIII is the goal, the team needs to excel on fundamentals the way it did in 2011. And don't rest starters in Week 17 if you have a first-round bye in the playoffs. Seriously.

8. New England Patriots [10-6] — The story is their depleted receiving corps. Seven players caught double-digit passes for the Patriots last season. Five of the seven are no longer with the team, including Pro Bowlers Wes Welker (Denver) and Aaron Hernandez (jail). The other two, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, both present injury concerns. Gronkowski can't stay healthy, and he begins 2013 on the injured list. Edelman broke his foot in December and his status for the beginning of the season remains in question. I think the Patriots have enough left to win the AFC East, but not as easily as in the past.

9. New Orleans Saints [10-6] — Last year, they shattered the record for defensive yards allowed. This season, the team faces substantially less turmoil. Bounty-gate is behind them and head coach Sean Payton is back. The offense should remain explosive: 4,000 yards and 30 TDs is probably the floor for Drew Brees. This season, the Saints need to establish their ground game, tighten up the defense, and force a few more turnovers. Small tweaks could turn them back into a contender.

10. New York Giants [9-7] — Quietly put together some nice offseason moves on defense, not big names, but solid players who can contribute. A young secondary remains the biggest concern, especially after the loss of safety Stevie Brown (injured reserve). Ahmad Bradshaw is gone, and the running game has been turned over to second-year back David Wilson. In the doghouse last year due to fumbling issues, he showed explosive play-making ability and should complement the Giants' passing game as long as he stays healthy. Offensively, the biggest concern is probably depth on the offensive line. I'm not sure the team is prepared to deal with injuries.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers [9-7] — Their 2012 campaign was derailed partially by injuries to David DeCastro at the beginning of the season, and pretty much everyone else later. Ben Roethlisberger, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Brown, and Ike Taylor all missed at least three games. Troy Polamalu missed half the season. Heath Miller lasted until December, then tore his ACL, MCL, and PCL. 2013 is off to an equally discouraging start, with both of the top two draft picks, pass rusher Jarvis Jones and running back Le'Veon Bell, injured during preseason, though both are expected to play in 2013. The Steelers are getting old, but there are good players on the roster, and if they can stay healthy, they've got another run in them. The bet here is they don't stay healthy.

12. Baltimore Ravens [8-8] — The Ravens, defending Super Bowl champions, are 9-point underdogs in Week 1. They enter the season having lost both starting safeties (Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard), both inside linebackers (Dannell Ellerbe and Ray Lewis), their leading sacker (Paul Kruger), their three most experienced veterans (Lewis, Reed, and Matt Birk), and one of their best players on offense (Anquan Boldin). As if losing Boldin weren't enough, starting tight end Dennis Pitta, another of the team's top three receivers, will miss the season on injured reserve. I'll be impressed if Baltimore wins half its games in 2013.

13. Carolina Panthers [9-7] — Ended last season with four straight wins, and scored at least 30 points in three of them. Cam Newton anchors a high-powered offense, but he needs to settle in and play consistently. The Panthers lost a lot of close games last year, and while much of the blame fell on Newton (who probably didn't deserve it) and Ron Rivera (who did), the biggest culprit was a defense that couldn't hold leads. Their best defensive players all return for 2013, including star LB Jon Beason, who missed 12 games on the injured list. Early draft picks Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short could give Carolina one of the best defensive lines in the league. The NFC South is a tough division, but the Panthers should challenge for a playoff spot.

14. Chicago Bears [8-8] — Head coach Lovie Smith and defensive captain Brian Urlacher are gone. New coach Marc Trestman brings a different scheme to the offense, but the quality of line play remains the biggest concern. Last year's 10-6 Bears thrived on takeaways, leading to 10 defensive touchdowns. That's not repeatable, and I question whether Chicago will consistently score enough points to win. Key players like Julius Peppers (33), Lance Briggs (32), and Charles Tillman (32) may slow down in the near future.

15. Washington Redskins [8-8] — Backup QB Kirk Cousins has shown promise, but their season probably hinges on the health of Robert Griffin III. His running ability is part of what makes RG3 special, so you don't want to limit him too much, but he's got to make the smart play when it comes to protecting himself — as well as knowing when he needs to sit out and recover. Beyond Griffin, Washington's biggest concerns are probably a lack of depth (especially on offense), an aging defensive core that is already facing injuries and multiple suspensions, and a suspect secondary. The NFC East looks very even this year, so playoff status could easily hinge on a handful of plays in close games.

16. Miami Dolphins [9-7] — Extremely aggressive in free agency, they let Reggie Bush leave and lost Jake Long, but added the deep threat Ryan Tannehill so desperately needs when they signed former Steeler WR Mike Wallace. The biggest additions are on defense: Dannell Ellerbe was the Ravens' best linebacker; Brent Grimes missed most of 2012 with an injury, but played at Pro Bowl-level in 2010-11; Philip Wheeler started all 16 games for the Raiders last year, with over 100 tackles (78 solo) and 3 sacks; rookie Dion Jordan should benefit from the attention opponents give to Cameron Wake. Expectations are high, and I believe the Dolphins will challenge for a playoff spot — maybe even a division title — in 2013.

17. Minnesota Vikings [7-9] — Had a nice draft, with three first-round picks. But Adrian Peterson won't rush for 2,000 yards again — I'll give him an over/under of 1,475 — and Christian Ponder left a lot to be desired last season. The biggest concern has to be Ponder's failure to throw downfield. In 2012, he averaged just 9.8 yards per completion, one of the lowest marks in history. Of the top 32 passers last year, 27 were between 11-13 yds/comp, with three over 13. Philip Rivers checked in at 10.7, and Ponder 9.8. For those of you into math, Ponder was more than a full standard deviation below 31st place. For those of you not into math, he never threw downfield. The Vikings added Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson this year, so Ponder has no excuse to keep everything underneath in 2013.

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [7-9] — In 2012, the Bucs' defense allowed the most passing yardage in the NFL. This year, the team upgraded its secondary with Darrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson, plus 2nd-round draft pick Johnthan Banks. That's a huge hole the team worked hard to address, and it gives Tampa Bay a chance to win. But it's hard not to think Tampa's season will turn on the play of up-and-down quarterback Josh Freeman. He's been Jekyll-and-Hyde throughout his four-year career, but if he's mostly Jekyll, and the key parts stay healthy, the Bucs could surprise people with a serious playoff run.

19. Detroit Lions [7-9] — Lost their last eight games in a row, but there's talent on this team. An offense with Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson threatens any opponent, and Bush's versatility should be a great fit for their pass-heavy scheme. Bush isn't Marshall Faulk, but he could realistically fit into a Brian Westbrook-type role with the Lions. The defense is mostly solid, and when his head is on straight, Ndamukong Suh is a legitimate star.

20. St. Louis Rams [8-8] — Biggest news this offseason came in the form of two upgrades to their offense: free agent Jake Long and first-round draft choice Tavon Austin. This will be Sam Bradford's fourth NFL season. With Long and a developing receiving corps that includes Austin, deep threat Chris Givens, and tight end Jared Cook, Bradford should have a big year. The Rams probably won't post a great record in the competitive NFC West, but the team has a promising collection of young players to build on.

21. Dallas Cowboys [8-8] — New offensive and defensive coordinators, Bill Callahan and Monte Kiffin. Callahan inherits a talented unit that needs to stay healthy and find a balance between run and pass. Kiffin, converting the team to a 4-3 scheme, has less to work with. If Tony Romo limits mistakes, and DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant live up to their explosive potential, the Cowboys could challenge for a division title. If the offense commits a lot of turnovers or suffers major injuries, this team could collapse in a hurry.

22. Philadelphia Eagles [8-8] — No one knows what to expect from Chip Kelly's offense. Will it mostly look like a standard NFL offense, will it resemble the spread offense Kelly used at Oregon, or will we see some combination of the two? Michael Vick begins the season at quarterback, and although the team lost leading receiver Jeremy Maclin, he should have some help from LeSean McCoy and Jason Peters, both healthy. The defense saw significant turnover, including the departures of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, as well as a transition to the 3-4. A lot broke wrong for the Eagles last year — injuries to Vick, McCoy, and Peters; a -24 turnover differential, including many in the red zone — and with a few fixes, they could probably be a great team. But with so many question marks, this is probably a rebuilding year.

23. San Diego Chargers [7-9] — New head coach Mike McCoy will try to reverse the team's failing fortunes, but he's dealing with a lot of turnover on defense. The team lost both starting cornerbacks and leading sacker Shaun Phillips, but the defense faces a fairly soft schedule, and if young linemen Kendall Reyes and Corey Liuget continue to develop, it could be a valuable backup in fantasy leagues. Offensively, the team looks to improve its line play, keep fragile RB Ryan Mathews off the injured list, and get Philip Rivers back to the form he showed from 2008-10. That's a long list of goals, and it's unlikely the Chargers can accomplish all of them.

24. Kansas City Chiefs [7-9] — Last season, five QBs had 6+ games throwing more INTs than TDs; two of them played for the Chiefs. This year, the team will start former 49er Alex Smith, whose combined passer rating over the last two seasons was 95.1. We're about to find out whether Smith suddenly flipped the switch in 2011, or whether his success was just a product of the talent around him in San Francisco. Despite last year's disappointing results (2-14), there's a promising young defense in place, so if Smith plays well, the Chiefs could be competitive in 2013.

25. Indianapolis Colts [7-9] — Coming off a charmed season in which they improved from 2-14 to 11-5. But in 2012, the Colts faced the easiest schedule in the NFL, and they won't have the same luck this time. Other than a meaningless Week 17 game, they only won by more than a touchdown once; nine victories were one play from going the other way. Bruce Arians and Dwight Freeney are gone, while Reggie Wayne and Robert Mathis are a year older. That said, there's every reason to expect progress from Andrew Luck in his sophomore campaign, and Ahmad Bradshaw should improve the running game. The Colts play in an easy division and should finish in the neighborhood of .500.

26. Cleveland Browns [5-11] — I don't have a problem with Brandon Weeden, but I don't know how he's going to succeed with such a limited receiving corps. Davone Bess was a nice addition, but he's not a game-breaker. The defense added pass rushers Paul Kruger (from Baltimore) and Barkevious Mingo (first-round draft pick), but Cleveland's biggest problems are on offense. Trent Richardson seems like a good player, but he averaged under 3.6 yards per attempt as a rookie, and the team hasn't really done anything to help him out. The AFC North is a tough division, and it looks like another rough year for the Browns.

27. Arizona Cardinals [3-13] — They're set for another really rough season. Carson Palmer should dramatically improve their passing game, but any quarterback is going to struggle behind that offensive line. First-round draft pick Jonathan Cooper, a desperately needed addition, broke his leg late in preseason and has been placed on injured reserve. Last year's defense, which I repeatedly raved about, lost 5 of its 8 leading tacklers, 6 if you count Daryl Washington. He's suspended for the first four games of the 2013 season, and he has an (unrelated) assault trial scheduled for October.

28. New York Jets [5-11] — The NFL's reality show, with neverending, seemingly scripted drama. Everyone fusses about the quarterbacks — Geno Smith probably isn't NFL-ready and Mark Sanchez is a proven failure — but they also face the loss of their best player, cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Jets have overachieved in the past (2009-10), but they've underachieved as well (2011-12), and for this season they've got less talent and more drama than ever. I wonder which team will hire Rex Ryan as its defensive coordinator in 2014.

29. Tennessee Titans [6-10] — Last year, they allowed the most points in the NFL, but fantasy owners in deep leagues may want to consider the Titans as a backup defense. They've added Bernard Pollard from the Ravens, but more importantly, they face an easy schedule, including home games against the Jets, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Cardinals, all of whom ranked among the bottom five in scoring last season. Tennessee also has special teams upside. Expectations for the offense remain low, but free agent Andy Levitre and first-round draft choice Chance Warmack should help stabilize the offensive line.

30. Buffalo Bills [3-13] — The big story is their unsettled QB situation. They drafted E.J. Manuel in the first round, and veteran Kevin Kolb was available as a backup or in case Manuel wasn't ready. Well, a concussion put Kolb on IR and maybe on the path to retirement, while Manuel is nursing a sore knee. That leaves undrafted Jeff Tuel as a possible Week 1 starter against the Patriots. The best player on their offensive line, guard Andy Levitre, left in free agency, so whoever the QB is, he'll probably have to make quick decisions. Defensively, their top three tacklers all left in free agency, and the fourth, play-making safety Jairus Byrd, is dealing with plantar fasciitis.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [5-11] — This is what I wrote a year ago: "With Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson on the field, Blaine Gabbert has no more excuses. Even with Maurice Jones-Drew potentially rusty from his long holdout, this needs to look like a real offense this year." It didn't. The Jaguars ranked 30th in scoring and 29th in yardage. The Jags open 2013 with Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne as the quarterbacks, again. There's only so far this team can go without a passing game.

32. Oakland Raiders [4-12] — Their defense sucks. Last year, no Raider had more than 4 sacks or 2 interceptions. Charles Woodson is back, but he's about to turn 37, and he's obviously slowing down. I know some people really like Tracy Porter, but I just don't think he's an impact player. The offense starts over with a new QB, either former Packer and Seahawk Matt Flynn, or (more likely) Terrelle Pryor, but the team lost its leading receiver, tight end Brandon Myers, in free agency. Darrius Heyward-Bey is also gone, which I guess could be good or bad depending on how you look at it. This has to be a rebuilding year, because there doesn't appear to be a lot of talent on the roster.

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card: NEW ENGLAND def. Miami, CINCINNATI def. Pittsburgh
Divisional: HOUSTON def. New England, DENVER def. Cincinnati
Championship: HOUSTON def. Denver

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card: NEW ORLEANS def. Atlanta, San Francisco def. NEW YORK GIANTS
Divisional: SEATTLE def. San Francisco, GREEN BAY def. New Orleans
Championship: SEATTLE def. Green Bay

Super Bowl XLVIII

Houston over Seattle

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:05 PM | Comments (1)

September 2, 2013

September Brings a New Kind of Baseball

Life is captivating while adrift in a small kayak on the harbor. There's a smorgasbord of vessels on the move, every one going in different directions and at varying speeds, and rules of the water seem as vague as the proscribed lanes of travel. A boat pulling away from dockage waves me to his starboard, citing the law of tonnage, while a sailboat passes me port-to-port. Jet skis dart through a field of moored yachts that I had depended on for sanctuary. A trophy wife in a nearby motorboat asks who has the right-of-way and her leather-skinned husband tells her the kayak does, even as he cuts across my bow. I bob in his wake and marvel at how fast the summer has passed.

September baseball feels a lot like paddling on the harbor. It's an emotional free-for-all offering little sanctuary amid the whirlwind of big boys vying for postseason privileges on the cutting edge between euphoria and despair. In most cities, it will be hard to shake the hangover of a bad loss the night before, but for a few the new day's game can't start soon enough.

There's the steady coolness of the Oakland A's in their perennial autumn surge and the wide-eyed wonder of the Pittsburg Pirates, who can't remember what a real autumn pennant race looks like. Tearful tributes for Mariano Rivera in the Bronx, satisfaction at a near-miss in Kansas City, resignation in Chicago as the Cubs add to the longest running championship drought in the history of the game.

For a sport that has long since lost its hold over America, where games drag on far beyond our collective attention spans, baseball nevertheless belies its dullness each September to create dramatic theater that the other three major sports can't. It's as if the imminent autumnal cool fronts maintain diligent punctuality for the sake of the game, bringing with the crisp air an invigoration that displaces the lugubrious summer malaise even before the coals of our Labor Day barbecues go out.

Baseball becomes a different game on Labor Day. What was only an occasional power alley drive or diving catch away from being reduced to a game of skill now elevates into a competitive sport whose balance is challenged with every pitch. For the first time all year, baseball really seems to get it. Each September brings some twist in the plot that once seemed rigid. Leads become fragile where those half their size seemed insurmountable in summer's heat.

The annuls are filled with classic collapses, but some of the most notorious have occurred in recent times. Take 2007, when the New York Mets took over first place on May 16, and for the next 106 games that lead never dipped below two in the lost column, even swelling to 7 by September 12. Nevertheless, it quickly dissipated over the last 17 games. Two years ago, the Atlanta Braves lost their can't-miss playoff berth on the last game of the season after squandering a 10½-game divisional lead in August, but that wasn't even the next day's headline. That same night, the Tampa Bay Rays capped off the greatest September surge in baseball history when they captured the AL wild card after overcoming a 9-game deficit to the Boson Red Sox with 25 to play.

This year, the Red Sox are far more balanced emotionally as well as positionally, and without their usually reliable fallibility to fall back on, fewer plot twists are on the horizon. Of far more intrigue in the month ahead is whether the new Ziva will be hotter than Cote de Pablo. But if September does claim a victim, it will ironically be the Rays. After being swept this weekend in Oakland, Tampa Bay has lost 4 straight, 7 of the last 8, and 15 of the last 24. The midseason favorites to win the A.L. East are trying to stave off the Yankees, not exactly a team over which you want to see your lead shrink to 3½ games with all of September remaining.

If baseball is a marathon, the Rays' problem is that they broke away from the pack too early and never distanced themselves. They struggle to score against anyone and still have 7 games remaining on the West Coast, which has proved hostile to them. They're 0-8 west of the Rockies this year. When they finally return to Florida, they'll likely be outsiders looking in as the A's and Yankees ride soft schedules all the way to October, and Baltimore and Cleveland prove a year too late and a year too early, respectively.

In the National League, there's too much distance and not enough legitimacy to usurp any of the five postseason berth-holders, so just enjoy some new Modern Family episodes and the nip-and-tuck battle for the NL Central. That's still a three-team race with each contestant assured of moving on to the October round. The St. Louis Cardinals are the salty veterans but the Pittsburgh Pirates are the emotional favorites, and for a month filled with emotions, that may be enough for them to win.

Safe harbors may be great for paddling kayaks, but they don't make for compelling pennant races. But that's the beauty of September. Oftentimes, you never see it coming until it rakes across your bow, leaving you bobbing in its wake and marveling at how fast things all came undone.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 11:42 AM | Comments (0)