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August 29, 2013

One Milestone Achieved Without Tragedy or Scandal

That was no ordinary heave of admiring relief on August 21 when Ichiro Suzuki swatted his way into a club whose membership now numbers six, but includes only one who achieved his membership on international terms. The last time someone passed a milestone in that range or higher, it was achieved with tragedy underwriting it and scandal to follow in due course.

Believe it or not, there was a time when Pete Rose was a certain kind of admirable. It's not that his narcissism was necessarily obscure before the gambling scandal that got him thrown out of baseball. But the manner in which he approached and then broke Ty Cobb's all-time hits record in 1985, whatever preceded it, really was admirable when all was said and done. Like Hank Aaron pursuing Babe Ruth before him, Rose felt the pressures of his team's owner and a few million of its fans hoping he or someone would find a way — any way — to be absolutely dead last certain of getting what he loved to call the Big Knock before the home audience.

The problem, in their eyes, was that Rose tied Cobb on the road and took a legitimate shot at breaking it likewise. It simply worked out that way. Player-manager Rose could have benched himself to save the Big Knock and risk putting himself in front of a commissioner's office probe as to whether he was benching himself for the good of his team or for the good of the home folks and the box office. Against the Cubs in Chicago, there was Rose in the top of the ninth, having already tied Cobb, the game itself tied, refusing to come out for a pinch hitter.

The in-game scenario: the Reds were eight games out in the National League West, barely hanging in in a pennant race, and Rose checked in at the plate with men on first and second, nobody out, and big Dave Parker on deck. Everyone from Reds owner Marge Schott to Joe Fan in the upper deck or in front of his television set was probably screaming, "Sacrifice, you sonofabitch!!!!!" ("I had thirty thousand yelling here," said Rose after that game, "and one lady back in Cincinnati, every time I got a hit, kicking her dog.")

Rose has long since traveled roads better left unpaved by him. On that night, however, he stood squarely on the side of the angels. He knew better than his owner or his fans that sacrificing meant first base open and the bat taken out of Parker's hands. There would be no way the Cubs would let Parker break the tie, never mind break the game wide open. And there'd be nobody to do the clutch hitting but men for whom "clutch" seemed to mean only what you applied shifting gears in your car.

So Rose hit away and, after one hard foul, struck out swinging. And, for one of the final times in his life, a writer (Thomas Boswell, in fact) could and did write of him, "In a season full of drug scandal and labor bluff, Rose showed that somebody still knows what the threadbare phrases 'integrity of the sport' and 'best interests of the game' really mean ... Hit no. 4,192 will be a testament to baseball skill. But no. 4,191 meant more. It was proof of something rarer—a moral sense."

This 2013 season hasn't seen a lot of labor bluff, but it has seen enough drug scandal and a little collateral damage therefrom. (See Ryan Dempster v. Alex Rodriguez.) Which is why, when Ichiro swung into territory inhabited only by Cobb, Rose, Aaron (between the Show and the minors), Stan Musial (likewise), and Pacific Coast League legend Jigger Statz (likewise, but who did most of his hitting in the PCL when it was considered the next best thing to major league competition), Yankee manager Joe Girardi was only the first to heave both a sigh of relief and, perhaps, a quiet thank you.

Ichiro has had about as much to do with scandal as the Yankees have had to do with dairy farming. In two decades worth of records falling or milestones reached and scandal attaching to (it seems) a little more than half of those, swinging his way to four thousand hits without so much as a single innuendo attached to his hide must have made baseball fans across the country and around the world feel loved again.

On the other side of Rose's achievement was a tragedy; on the other side of Ichiro's, a nightmare conquered.

Eric Show, the Padres right-hander who surrendered Rose's Ty-breaking hit, was a badly addled young man. He was a gentle soul but had none of the swaggering garrulousness that made Rose such a public relations hit. Highly intelligent, deeply sensitive, Show was buffeted mercilessly by insecurities, thanks to a violent upbringing from a brutalitarian father who shoved him toward baseball when his heart might really have been in music (he was a gifted guitarist) and in spiritual pursuits.

He was a good pitcher whose inner furies often left him prone to mound mistakes, and thus he entered that game knowing there was at least a 50-50 chance he'd be Rose's milestone patsy. After he threw that grapefruit of a slider, nothing even close to the hard diver that was his money pitch, and Rose hit it inside out into left field, Show walked over to congratulate Rose. Then, as Riverfront Stadium went nuts, the pitcher walked back to the mound and, utterly bewildered, with no teammate approaching him and his back tightening on him for good measure, he sat on the mound for temporary relief.

Show didn't understand until it was too late how unsportsmanlike he looked. But nobody else knew its impetus would open the door to the end of his life. In time he began indulging soft amphetamines to relieve his back trouble, but those proved an opening to harder stuff he took in a failed bid to relieve his spiritual pain. That haunted man, once known among friends and teammates for generosity to the point of madness (he had a habit of dropping $50 bills on perfect strangers at any given time), his marriage in tatters, his addictions unstoppable, closure with his Alzheimer's-ravaged father impossible, died at 37 almost a decade after he surrendered Rose's Ty-breaker.

R.A. Dickey, the former Met who now toils for Toronto, faced and conquered his own furies well before he made a late-life splash on the other side of New York. He wasn't anywhere near any place where he might want to tuck up and hide after surrendering Ichiro's milestone. Unlike Show, Dickey overthrew a nightmare childhood. Show once promised his mother he'd show her what was beyond the moon; Dickey once scaled Mt. Kilmanjaro, which was probably closer.

More unlike Show, Dickey is a pitcher who's gotten better as he's aged, even if he's been struggling this season against his glittering, Cy Young-winning 2012. Certainly he knows there's nothing personal, no suggestion of lack of effort in surrendering both a milestone hit and, subsequently, a 2-run bomb to one of baseball's current hottest hitters, as he did to Alfonso Soriano en route the 4-2 Blue Jays loss.

"You never want to be the guy that gives up the milestone. That being said, what an incredible achievement," Dickey told reporters after the game Wednesday night. "The manner that he's done it is equally impressive. Just the longevity, the endurance, the durability. Having played with him in Seattle, it was a real treat to play with him and it couldn't have happened to a more professional hitter."

Ichiro isn't likely to turn up in Las Vegas or anywhere else earning his living by trying to buy his way back into baseball's good graces when his playing days are over at last. When he shows up in Cooperstown, it'll be to accept his Hall of Fame plaque, not to set up shop signing anything thrust at him for a fee and writing a continuing apology for screwing up. Rose doesn't have the pleasure of sitting with Show signing photographs of the Big Knock. Ichiro and Dickey may yet share that pleasure in due course.

And there won't be a nightmare preceding them or a scandal following their fateful hookup Wednesday night.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:27 PM | Comments (0)

August 28, 2013

Let the Games Begin: Week 1

Finally, the two words everyone's been waiting for have arrived.

Game. Time.

This year's college football season (aka the last dying gasp of the BCS) is already shaping up to be an epic one. Right from the start, the first week has some solid contests. Hitting the big conferences, let's set things up for the kickoff of the 2013 season.

American

Best Game: Rutgers travels to Fresno State, a team who might just end Boise's run of dominance in the Mountain West. The Scarlet Knights, led by veteran QB Gary Nova, are no pushover and this game could start a momentous season for the victors. Honorable mention goes to Purdue's visit to Cincinnati. Darrell Hazell vs. Tommy Tuberville, both in their first game at their respective schools. That's intriguing.

Bloodbath: Most would say Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville are going to dismantle Ohio. While I think the Cards win easy, I think Frank Solich's bunch will make it respectable. Therefore, I'll say Houston will have the rout of the week as Southern comes to town.

Upset Watch: None this week really catch the attention of upset meters. Cincy over Purdue would be a slight upset, but not enough to sound the real shock alarms.

ACC

Best Game: Georgia vs. Clemson might be the best game of the year. Seriously. The Bulldogs might have the most solid offense in college football with Aaron Murray at the helm. However, Tajh Boyd gets to unleash his attach on a very, very green UGA defensive unit. Both teams believe they can win a national title. This one is a must-watch. MUST.

Bloodbath: Georgia Tech QB Vad Lee is going to become a household name by December. Racking up huge numbers against Elon will be a nice start.

Upset Watch: Florida State needs to be a bit cautious about starting the season at Pitt, whose sole goal is to reach a bowl game outside of Birmingham. I also think NC State has a tricky opening act against Louisiana Tech as Sonny Dykes didn't leave an empty cupboard in Ruston.

Big 10

Best Game: I like Pat Fitzgerald taking Northwestern west to face Cal. Fitzgerald's well-oiled Wildcat machine taking on Sonny Dykes and his newly revamped Bears. For Northwestern, this is a good test to prepare for the Big 10 slate. For Cal, this is a good test to see if their offense can out-offense the other Pac-12 offenses.

Bloodbath: Urban Meyer will ask for a fifth quarter if possible to try and let Braxton Miller score as many points as he can against Buffalo. No doubts.

Upset Watch: Northern Illinois is fresh off of an Orange Bowl appearance and will not be afraid of the pink lockers at Iowa's Kinnick Stadium. As the seat has grown pretty warm for Kirk Ferentz in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes can't afford to let the Huskies walk out with a road win.

Big 12

Best Game: LSU/TCU at AT&T's Jerry World. Give props to Jerry Jones, who has been able to land some fantastic opening week matchups in his stadium. TCU, who will likely start Casey Pachall, but won't make things official until the last second, should be a good test for Les Miles and company. Whether Tiger RB Jeremy Hill plays is questionable. It shouldn't be (the guy shouldn't be playing at all this season), but with or without him, this should be a good game.

Bloodbath: Dana Holgorsen, meet William and Mary. Just think, Dana, Lou Holtz coached there once. You could be his center of attention on College GameDay Final with what you will likely do to the Tribe. We, the viewing public, will have to suffer slightly for this.

Upset Watch: Mike Gundy has to be cautious of Mississippi State, especially as Dan Mullen's teams seem to be strongest overall at the beginning of the season. However, I've got one more. It's probably the biggest surprise for an upset watch this weekend, but Kansas State needs to be careful. With a QB not named Klein, Bill Snyder's crew takes on two-time defending FCS champion North Dakota State. The Wildcats aren't the fastest out of the gate at times and the Bison will not be intimated in the least.

Pac-12

Best Game: Washington shows off their newly renovated stadium by welcoming Boise State into town. Boise survived in their last meeting; this year's contest should be just as close as both teams feel as though they have a lot to prove. The Broncos want one last BCS farewell bust, while Sark's crew wants desperately to get over the seven-win hump.

Bloodbath: Nicholls State, Oregon didn't pay you enough. Seriously. I'd be asking for $200,000 per Duck touchdown, meaning you get at least $2 million when Oregon aims for 70.

Upset Watch: I don't think anyone is sold on USC since their Sun Bowl humiliation. After Lane Kiffin oddly suggested that his depth chart took "five minutes" and still had two QBs in the mix, I don't think anyone would be overly surprised if Hawaii pulled off the upset and sealed the inevitable for Kiffin.

SEC

Best Game: While LSU/TCU is one of the best games, Georgia/Clemson is the best one of the weekend. It's one game whose outcome is just too tough to predict. Half the time I see Georgia wining, then I'll see Clemson winning. As of this minute, slight edge to the Tigers. Expect that to change 8-9 times by Saturday.

Bloodbath: Johnny Manziel will start for Texas A&M. He will then put on a show/clinic against Rice as showers of Sharpies will be thrown by admiring fans in College Station. The Aggies will have to clean up fast; Alabama is looming in a couple of weeks.

Upset Watch: Quite a few as the SEC has some intriguing games. While Arkansas and Auburn, fresh off long seasons, will be wary of Louisiana-Lafayette and Washington State, respectively, I say the formers take out the latters in very close fashion. The real upset watch? Kentucky's in-state matchup that takes place out-of-state. Western Kentucky beat the Wildcats last year and now, with Bobby Petrino at the helm, is a scary first week matchup for first year coach Mark Stoops.

We're less than 48 hours away from all of this unfolding before our eyes. Enjoy yourselves this weekend; we've all waited long enough!

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:46 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 24

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led the final 125 laps and held off Kasey Kahne to win the Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol, his series-best fifth win of the year. If the Chase For the Cup started this week, Kenseth would be the top seed.

"That's three times Kahne's finished second to me this year," Kenseth said. "I can totally relate to Kasey feeling like a bridesmaid — Carl Edwards used to make me feel like a woman all the time."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson hit the spinning No. 83 car of David Reutimann, damaging the No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet. Johnson finished 60 laps down in 36th as Matt Kenseth took the win.

"I was just in the wrong place at the wrong time," Johnson said. "And I seem to really know where that place is lately.

"Just like that, my points lead has gone from 75 to 18. Of course, it didn't help when I plowed into Reutimann. And that reminds of what the farmer said to the farmhand who left early: 'Come back to the field.'"

3. Kasey Kahne — Kahne chased Matt Kenseth down the stretch at Bristol, but could never make a successful pass, settling for second in the Irwin Tools Night Race. It was the third time this year Kahne has finished second to Kenseth.

"The consensus is that Kenseth is the biggest challenge to Jimmie Johnson for this year's Cup," Kahne said. "And I 'second' that. Apparently, Kenseth has my number. And it's '2.'"

4. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer led 50 laps at Bristol but contact with a lapped car caused a spin that sent him right into the path of Bobby Labonte's No. 47. After working his way back to the front, Bowyer ran out of fuel on the final lap and finished 14th. Although still winless on the year, he is second in the points standings, 18 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"That's what you call a 'run' of bad luck," Bowyer said.

"Despite my troubles, I still clinched a spot in the Chase. But it gets better. I'll likely be the first to clinch the last spot, as well."

5. Kyle Busch — Busch started 43rd at Bristol and survived a brush with the wall to finish 10th, his 14th top-10 result of the year. He is fifth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 82 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"It was an eventful day for Joe Gibbs Racing," Busch said. "Matt Kenseth held off Kasey Kahne, and Denny Hamlin told off Kevin Harvick.

"My brother Kurt just signed to drive for Stewart-Haas Racing next year. He'll team with Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, and Danica Patrick to form the most ornery racing team in history."

6. Carl Edwards — Edwards' engine gave way while he was leading on lap 387 at Bristol, relegating him to a 39th in the Irwin Tools Night Race. Instead of the chance to compete for his second win this year, Edwards suffered his worst finish of the year.

"It's official," Edwards said. "Kurt Busch has signed to drive for Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. I'm not sure of the financials of the deal, but word around the campfire is that Busch will be paid hourly. He'll punch in, and Stewart will punch him out."

7. Kevin Harvick — Harvick's No. 29 Jimmy John's Chevrolet was collected in a lap 449 wreck triggered when Brian Vickers clipped Denny Hamlin, cutting the No. 11 Toyota's right front tire and sending it into traffic. Afterwards on pit lane, Hamlin pushed Harvick's car out of Hamlin's pit stall, leading to a minor confrontation between the two drivers.

"It appears that Tony Stewart isn't the only driver causing me to 'move,'" Harvick said. "And I though Ryan Newman got 'pushed out' in a hurry.

"I just asked Hamlin what his problem was. He said he had 99 of them, but a son of a bitch wasn't one."

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — After two consecutive finishes 30th or worse, Earnhardt ground out a tough 10th at Bristol, posting his 13th top 10 of the year. Still, he is winless on the year, and if he doesn't win in the next two weeks, will find himself at the bottom when the Chase field is set.

"Hopefully," Earnhardt said, "the No. 88 Diet Mountain Dew Chevy can find victory in the next two weeks. You've likely seen my commercial featuring the slogan 'This is how we Dew.' But, for a driver who hasn't won all year, 'This is how we don't.'"

9. Joey Logano — Last week's winner at Michigan, Logano solidified his Chase hopes with a fifth at Bristol. He vaulted three spots from 13th to 10th in the points standing, and leads Brad Keselowski in 11th by four points.

"I'm poised to make the Chase," Logano said, "while defending Cup champ Keselowski may be left out. In that case, I could very well be the face of Penske Racing. Either way, it's not a pretty picture."

10. Greg Biffle — Biffle posted his second straight top-10 finish with a ninth in the Irwin Tools Night Race. He improved one spot to ninth in the points standings, and is 17 ahead of 11th place.

"Bruton Smith gave Danica Patrick a pair of Jimmy Choo shoes," Biffle said. "As a show of appreciation, Danica gave Bruton a restraining order."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

August 27, 2013

Jamaal Charles is Awesome

I have highlighted Jamaal Charles in the past. I believe he's the most underappreciated great running back in a long time. That lack of appreciation makes sense in a way. Well, no, it doesn't make sense, but it's understandable.

Charles was a good player at Texas, but he wasn't really a star, never a serious Heisman candidate or a highlight show sensation. He was a third-round draft pick. He plays for Kansas City, a small-market team in a small-market division — ESPN doesn't even know the Chiefs exist. And because the team hasn't been very good in recent years, there's nothing forcing the media to cover its games. Charles kind of slips through the cracks.

Until you look at his stats, that is. They jump off the page. There's one in particular that caught my attention recently, and I can't believe I didn't notice it sooner. Last season, Charles rushed for 1,509 yards with a 5.3 average per carry. That's exceptional, making Charles one of only 23 players with 1,500 rushing yards and a 5.0 average in the same season. Of the other 22 players, 17 are either in the Hall of Fame or not eligible yet. The others are Tiki Barber, Terrell Davis, Garrison Hearst, Priest Holmes, and Robert Smith, all of whom were very good.

But that's not the stat. This is: 2012 was the third time Charles has rushed for 1,000 yards in a season, and all three times, he has averaged over five yards per attempt. That is an extraordinarily rare accomplishment. Only six players have three seasons of 1,000 yards and a rushing average of five yards or better:

Jim Brown (five times)
Barry Sanders (five times)
O.J. Simpson
Marshall Faulk
James Brooks
Jamaal Charles

Brooks is another badly underrated player — his stats are basically the same as Roger Craig's — but that's another article. Charles has combined production and efficiency at a level that many great players never reach. There are post-merger, Hall of Fame RBs who never had a 1,000-yard, 5.0-average season: Marcus Allen, Tony Dorsett, Franco Harris, Floyd Little, Curtis Martin, John Riggins, Thurman Thomas. Many more great runners never had that kind of season. Edgerrin James. Jerome Bettis. Corey Dillon, Eddie George, Ricky Williams. Current players like Arian Foster, Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew. It's not easy. Charles has done it not once, or even twice, but three times. Every full season of his career. He's in a club that only includes five other people, and four of them are among the top 10 RBs in history.

Almost as remarkable is that Charles did all this for KC teams that went a combined 16-32 in those three seasons. It's easier to maintain a strong rushing average on good teams than bad ones, and the other players with three 1,000-yard seasons of 5 or more yards per carry had much better team records:

If you omit his rookie season, when he barely played (67 att), and 2011, when he missed 14½ games, Charles rushed for 1,000 yards with a 5-yard average in each of his first three full seasons, a unique accomplishment. Last year's 5.29 average was actually the lowest of Charles' career. His lifetime average, 5.79, is so far the best of any running back in history. Below are the top 10 career rushing averages in NFL history, with at least 750 attempts:

1. Michael Vick, 7.02
2. Randall Cunningham, 6.36
3. Jamaal Charles, 5.79
4. Marion Motley, 5.70
5. Jim Brown, 5.22
6. Mercury Morris, 5.14
7. Adrian Peterson, 5.05
8. Joe Perry, 5.04
9. Gale Sayers, 5.00
10. Barry Sanders, 4.99

That's two quarterbacks, then Charles. Five of the other seven RBs are Hall of Famers, and another certainly will be (Peterson). Again, Charles is in really select company here. But this time, he's at the top of the list. That average isn't sustainable over a long career, but it's likely that Charles will end up in the same neighborhood as Brown and Sanders.

What is Charles' most remarkable accomplishment? Is it the 1,500-yard season with a 5.3 average? Three full seasons which all produced over 1,000 yards and over 5 yards per carry? A lifetime average that so far is the best in history? Or was it Charles' 2010 season, when he carried 230 times and gained 1,467 yards, an average of 6.38 per carry? Highest single-season yards per attempt, min. 150 rushes:

1. Jim Brown, 1963: 291 att, 1863 yds — 6.40 avg
2. Jamaal Charles, 2010: 230 att, 1467 yds — 6.38 avg
3. Barry Sanders, 1997: 335 att, 2053 yds — 6.13 avg
4. Joe Perry, 1954: 173 att, 1049 yds — 6.06 avg
5. O.J. Simpson, 1973: 332 att, 2003 yds — 6.033 avg
6. Adrian Peterson, 2012: 348 att, 2097 yds — 6.026 avg
7. C.J. Spiller, 2012: 207 att, 1244 yds — 6.01 avg
8. Jim Brown, 1958: 257 att, 1527 yds — 5.94 avg
9. Jamaal Charles, 2009: 190 att, 1120 yds — 5.89 avg
10. Jim Brown, 1960: 215 att, 1257 yds — 5.85 avg

With one fewer carry, Charles would hold the record. Post-merger, Charles' 2010 is the best by a huge margin — a quarter of a yard. Four of the top 10 are from the last four seasons, and time will tell whether that's because players like Peterson and Charles are just that good, or if the pass-oriented nature of the game facilitates better averages now. But even if rushing for exceptional averages has gotten easier, Charles is doing something none of his peers do. Not Peterson, not Chris Johnson (5.60 in his 2,000-yard season, in case you wondered), not Arian Foster, or anyone else. Jamaal Charles is awesome.

Author's note: fantasy football owners, please keep in mind that your league probably does not award extra points for a high rushing average.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:05 PM | Comments (0)

August 26, 2013

The NFL All-Newcomer Team, Defense

In part one of the 2013 NFL All-Newcomer team, we gave you the top new faces in new places at each position on offense. The goal is to identify those players at each spot that will have the biggest impact on their new team's fortunes this year, from rookie Travis Frederick solidifying the middle of the Cowboys offensive line, to Danny Amendola becoming Tom Brady's new security blanket (when he's not hurt).

In part two of the series, we go defense and special teams. It may be a bit harder to quantify value of a defensive tackle or linebacker than a running back or wide receiver, but if your defense can't get off the field and is giving up touchdown after touchdown, the offense needs to keep pace. That means they become one dimensional. They don't have time to run, so the play-action game doesn't work anymore. The defense knows what's coming, turns up the pass rush, and the opposing secondary gets better jumps on the ball. And that's how Drew Brees, while putting up crazy touchdown totals, finishes first or second in interceptions thrown in two of the past three seasons (55 total).

So without further ado, Part Two of the 2013 NFL All-Newcomer Team, Defense and Special Teams:

DE: Elvis Dumervil, Baltimore Ravens

Dumervil may be an outside linebacker in the Ravens' 3-4, but this here is a 4-3 scheme and Dumervil has 63.5 sacks over his first six seasons in the league, with three seasons over 10 and another of 9.5. He may have more responsibility for dropping into coverage now, but with the rejuvenated Terrell Suggs on the other side, Dumervil could be in for a monster season.

DE: Osi Umenyiora, Atlanta Falcons

This spot could have rightfully gone to Cliff Avril, who left Detroit for Seattle, or Ezekiel Ansah, who replaced Avril with the Lions (and my early pick for DROY). But it's Umenyiora who will have the biggest influence on whether the Falcons can take the next step into the Super Bowl conversation. With all of the weapons on offense, Atlanta is going to score. But even with John Abraham's 10 sacks last year, Atlanta finished just 28th in the league with 29 sacks. Not only does Umenyiora have to at least equal Abraham's production (Abraham went to Arizona this offseason), he needs to take it up a notch. If he doesn't, Falcons fans should prepare themselves for another January heartache.

DT: Tommy Kelly, New England Patriots

Vince Wilfork has been holding down the middle of the Patriots' line for years, taking double- and triple-teams and giving lesser players the opportunities for one-on-one battles. Kelly may have been a false-start machine in Oakland, but he's also the most talented tackle to line up next to Wilfork since Richard Seymore left. Wilfork and Kelly combined in the middle are going to open up the rush lanes for the ends and keep the interior offensive linemen from getting to the next level on the Pats' linebackers.

DT: Aubrayo Franklin, Indianapolis Colts

While you could make a solid argument for a couple of rookie DTs like Star Lotulelei (Panthers) or Sheldon Richardson (Jets), the Colts' transition to a successful 3-4 in year two of the Chuck Pagano era depends on the same thing as any other team's transition to a 3-4: A legitimate nose tackle to clog up the middle. Without that, you get what the Colts had last year, which was a run defense that gave up 5.1 yards per carry (only New Orleans was worse). Nobody is going to mistake Franklin for Haloti Ngata, and he's probably not the best tackle to switch teams this offseason, but he will be critical to the Colts' defense being good enough to take advantage of Andrew Luck and the offense.

LB: Karlos Dansby, Arizona Cardinals

If the Cardinals want to compete in a division with Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, they had to beef up their run defense. Dansby returns his NFL roots after three years in Miami, where his team-leading 103 tackles helped the Dolphins hold opposing defenses to just 4.0 yards per carry last year. Opposing offenses rushed the ball against Arizona 506 times last year, second most behind only Jacksonville. Dansby's presence should restore some of the balance and force opposing QBs to contend with the Cards' very decent pass defense.

LB: Dannell Ellerbe, Miami Dolphins

It will be Ellerbe who is tasked with improving on what Dansby brought to Miami's defense last year. Personally, I think this is a downgrade when you factor in contracts and GM Jeff Ireland goes out in flames after an offseason straight out of the Dan Snyder playbook (early 2000s edition). But if we're talking about guys who will have major impacts on their new teams' success or failure this year, you can't leave out the guy with the shiny new five-year, $34.75 million contract.

LB: James Harrison, Cincinnati Bengals

If you've watched Hard Knocks, you've seen what I have: A strange dude hell bent on destruction. The AFC North is wide open, and while it's the Bengals offense that needs to take the next step, Harrison could also make the difference and turn a few of last year's six losses by 10 or fewer points into Ws.

CB: Darrelle Revis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There was once a time in sports where you didn't even look at a guy as a major contributor the year after a major injury. That time has passed. Revis is nearly a year removed from the knee injury he suffered in his final season with the Jets, and if he is able to return to form, he will be a major factor in the Bucs' ability to navigate their division. Revis vs. Julio Jones. Revis vs. Roddy White. Revis vs. Marques Colston. Revis vs. Steve Smith. You get the picture. Playing defense is easier when Revis Island is a part of the equation.

CB: Sean Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

In another episode of "What the hell is Jeff Ireland doing?" the Chiefs pick up a big, fast corner who is only 26-years-old, and they do it for roughly half of what Ireland paid mediocre receiver Brian Hartline. The new offense under Andy Reid and Alex Smith is getting the ink in KC, but the defense has the potential to be the best in the division. The Chiefs are going to get pressure on the QB, and with Smith now opposite Brandon Flowers, with Dunta Robinson in the slot, opposing quarterbacks not named Peyton Manning are going to have some rough days this season.

S: Dashon Goldson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When you have the league's worst pass defense in the league's most pass-heavy division, that's an issue. With Revis manning one corner and Goldson now joining 2012 first-round pick Mark Barron at safety, Tampa may finally be able to compete with the high-powered offenses of its division foes. Now just to get a QB who can handle himself in the face of a rush...

S: Eric Reid, San Francisco 49ers

The easy pick is to go with veteran future Hall of Famer Ed Reed, now of the Texans, but with Goldson off to the Bucs, it's the rookie Reid out of LSU who takes his place. It's not often a rookie gets to step in as the only first-year starter on a Super Bowl defense, but that's how much faith 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has in the 2012 All-American. He better show up, because San Francisco doesn't have a Plan B (Craig Dahl). And when it comes to defending the Bruce Arians offense in Arizona, or even the Sam Bradford-Chris Givens connection out of St. Louis (don't laugh), you don't want the middle of the field covered by a rookie who doesn't know which way is up.

PK: Phil Dawson, San Francisco 49ers

David Akers got to attempt 42 field goals last season in San Francisco. If Dawson gets those kinds of opportunities, you can guarantee he'll make a hell of a lot more than 29. If Akers had made even just half of the ones he missed, he would have been the second-highest scoring player in the league last year. Dawson may just be a kicker, but he's going to add an average of 2-3 points per game to the Niners total.

P: Shane Lechler, Houston Texans

With the incredibly bad offensive season ahead in Oakland, it's a shame they had to let one of the top punters in the league leave. But cap hell is what it is, and I guess $5.5 million was more than they could afford for a punter. Oh well. Their loss is Houston's gain, and Texans coach Gary Kubiak gets an ace punter to match his ultra-conservative decision making (only attempted seven fourth downs all year in 2012). Hooray, field position!

PR/KR: Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams

This is really a crapshoot, and the call could have gone to any number of guys, including fellow rookie Cordarrelle Patterson of the Vikings. I even thought about going with Ted Ginn just so I could bag on Jeff Ireland again. But Austin, the eighth pick in the draft, is supposedly a combination of cheetah speed and hummingbird elusiveness (that's a thing, right?). Put it this way — anybody want to bet me he doesn't return a kick for a touchdown this year?

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 7:09 PM | Comments (0)

School's in Session

It has been a pretty active, but somewhat quiet, offseason in the world of NBA coaching. The active part came from the fact that nearly half of the Association (13 out of 30 organizations) found themselves in a search for a new sideline captain. The quiet part of the equation factors in that all these new coaches need time to hunker down and study their new surroundings or situations.

Now, we all know that coaching changes are inevitably annual. The reason for this year being so strange was that over half of those changes came from almost half of the teams that made the playoffs. With so many new faces in new places, there are bound to be a few that NBA fans don't readily recognize.

Nine of these men will coach their very first NBA game in late October or early November. While four will try to start winning traditions (or position for the Andrew Wiggins/Jabari Parker sweepstakes), five take over organizations coming off of recent success. These guys have evaluated talent through their first summer leagues and will continue to do so over their first training camps. By the end, we'll all analyze the effectiveness of their first full year.

However, you have to set a standard to grade on. So, before the opening tip, let's find out what curve these coaches will try to master.

Mike Budenholzer, Atlanta Hawks

Budenholzer is a branch from the ever-growing Gregg Popovich coaching tree. He's served more than a decade and a half as an assistant in San Antonio. Now he gets a chance to lead a franchise that has been known largely for its underachieving disappointment. The Hawks have made the postseason the last six years, winning one round in half of those appearances.

To Get an 'A', They Must: Win the Southeast Division

It's going to be hard for this team to win the same division as the defending champion Heat. They've also lost their most athletic player, Josh Smith, to free agency. But they did re-sign shooter Kyle Korver. Now, with the additions of Paul Millsap and (to a lesser extent) Elton Brand, this team has more than enough talent and depth inside to create problems for Miami.

To Get a 'C', They Must: Hold On to the Sixth Seed

Since the days of Bob Petit in St. Louis, this organization has had flashes of glory, only to be surpassed by greatness. Dominique Wilkins couldn't get through the Celtics. Steve Smith couldn't bypass the Bulls and Knicks. Smith, Korver, and Horford can't defeat a myriad of teams (including the Heat). The job for Budenholzer will be to get this squad past the malaise of finishing just shy of the middle.

Predicted Grade: B+ (Hosting a First-Round Series)

It'll be a tight fit, with Brooklyn, New York, Chicago, and Indiana all fighting for spots 2-4 in the Eastern playoff pecking order. Putting Millsap beside Al Horford in the post gives Atlanta an edge over New York, and they should have more shooting prowess than Chicago. That should be enough to push them into the '4' slot.

David Joerger, Memphis Grizzlies

After being an assistant in the organization for the past six seasons, Joerger was promoted to lead the team after Lionel Hollins was let go. This won't be Joerger's first stint making the important decisions. He's coached in the IBA, CBA, USBL, and the D-League. But now he's matching wits with the best coaches and putting his players in position to battle the best athletes.

To Get an 'A', They Must: Reach the NBA Finals

When you fire a coach after he leads a team to the Conference Finals, a high bar is set. It'll be tough to meet those standards, but it has been done before. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers felt they peaked under Tony Dungy, replaced him with Jon Gruden, and reaped the reward of a Lombardi Trophy. Joerger has the same Grizzlies roster that made their run earlier this summer. Plus, the coach earned early success in his coaching career (winning titles in the IBA, CBA, and D-League). Sounds like a good foundation.

To Get a 'C', They Must: Lose Before Game 7 of the Conference Semis

It sounds like a step back for a team that lasted until the NBA's "Final Four," but you have to take into account all the changes around the rest of the West. The Spurs return their own nucleus. The Clippers upgraded their own coach. Golden State and Houston made moves to upgrade their own rosters. Then there's Oklahoma City, which adds a year to their experience. With all those improvements, getting back into the Playoffs will stay a challenge. Advancing in the Playoffs, well, that might be brutal.

Predicted Grade: C (Lose in Game 6 of the Conference Semis)

With the post presence staying intact, I don't see many teams staying ahead of the Grizzlies. However, we easily forget that the Conference Finals might not have happened this past June had Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook been healthy. Maybe all Memphis needs is that subtle kick in the pants to go from contender to champion. But I think it'll take a year and another piece.

Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics

To me, this is the most interesting hire of the offseason. If you aren't a fan of college basketball, you might not think that consecutive trips to the NCAA championship game were terribly impressive. Stevens is now in a new league with a different philosophy. College coaches have tried to climb this ladder to its peak. Many have fallen through the thin air and back down to ledge of amateur basketball.

To Get an 'A', They Must: Make it to the Sixth Seed in the East

The moves made by Celtics' front office (trading Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and head coach Doc Rivers) have many believing that an 'A' grade would involving tanking the season to increase their chances of drafting either Wiggins or Parker. But the Draft Lottery isn't a guarantee. Boston fans remember that all too well. With Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, Gerald Wallace, and rookie Kelly Olynyk on the roster, this team has more than enough to make the postseason.

To Get a 'C', They Must: Finish About 8-10 Games Under

The loss of Garnett and Pierce equaled the loss of the team's heart. Now, if you're the Celtics, you don't really rebuild, you restore heritage. However, the lack of star power appears to put this franchise square at "mediocracy." An intriguing rookie class, including Olynyk, might be enough to keep them from striving for the bottom. But...

Predicted Grade: F (Fifth-Worst Record)

...I have a feeling that this might be Danny Ainge's master plan. I could be wrong. Ainge is the type of guy that makes a left turn into a square hole and confuses the hell out of everyone, except himself. I hope Stevens lets his competitive nature show. I hope that the team has a chip on their shoulder and not a deer in headlights look. Then again, I have a feeling.

Jason Kidd, Brooklyn Nets

This is the most surprising move of the summer. Kidd literally goes from the court to the bench, retiring as a player on June 3rd and becoming a head coach on June 12th. If there was a “coach-in-waiting” list of players over the last generation, he'd be right at the top of it. It also appears that he'll have the most ready-made contending roster.

To Get an 'A', They Must: Reach the NBA Finals

On paper, this roster is extremely loaded (maybe not as loaded as it would have been four years ago, but loaded still). The additions of Garnett and Pierce (plus the less ballyhooed Andrei Kirilenko) give this squad the combination of Brooklyn swagger and Boston grit. Credibility with his peers might not be an issue, so the biggest job for Kidd should be minute management. We'll see how well he learns that on the fly.

To Get a 'C', They Must: Lose in the Eastern Conference Finals (Game 6)

I believe it's their expectation, even with a rookie coach, that they're the second-best team in the East ... and they have Miami shaking in their sneakers. But did their offseason acquisitions upgrade the intangibles enough to match the talent of the other contenders?

Predicted Grade: D (Eastern Conference Semis)

Let's say they finish first or second, with the Heat grabbing the other slot. The conference semifinal matchup will likely be the Pacers or the Bulls. The Bulls actually beat Brooklyn in April. While the Nets improved the roster, the return of Derrick Rose for Chicago basically makes the transactions a wash. In the other case, I believe Indiana is higher up on the contender list than Brooklyn is. And if Danny Granger can stay healthy, that's another added piece that wasn't around for the previous postseason. With those kind of roadblocks, this Nets' season might end with more disappointed patience than they anticipate.

Brian Shaw, Denver Nuggets

He's been the most notorious bridesmaid over the last few years. Now, the former decorated assistant of the Lakers and Pacers is finally getting his shot to run a team. All he has to do is replace George Karl, a.k.a. the reigning NBA Coach of the Year. Shaw also has to figure out how to replace the production of Andre Iguodala. But, really, no pressure.

To Get an 'A', They Must: Reach the Western Conference Semis

Wouldn't it be a trip if Shaw could take this team (minus Iguodala) further than Karl could? One player that will return is Danilo Gallinari, whose torn ACL upset the apple cart in the last two weeks of the regular season. As I look at it, they may end up being the sixth-best team out West. That might be good enough to put them in the position they faced this season (becoming the 2014 version of Golden State).

To Get a 'C', They Must: Get to the Playoffs

As I've already said, except for the missing wing threat from Iguodala, this team basically comes back intact. But they also didn't bring in what could be seen as a huge upgrade. The teams on the outside of the postseason (Minnesota, Phoenix, Portland) are hungry to get back into May basketball. They may need to fend off more than push forward this time around.

Predicted Grade: B+ (Losing in Game 7 of the First Round)

Ultimately, I see the Nuggets falling on the road in a Game 7. I'll be interested to see what philosophy Shaw brings in for this high-flying personnel. Will he revert back to his tutelage in the Triangle system? Will he take some pieces from his days in Indiana? The other question ... will a go-to star emerge on the squad? If they can't answer this last question, it might be another summer of "what if?" in the thin Rockies air.

The most intriguing part about this group of rookies is that they used different schools of thought to reach this honored day. In all cases, the roads lead to "Congratulations! You've graduated to the stature of 'Head Coach'. Now let's see you put that training to good use."

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:17 PM | Comments (0)

August 22, 2013

Slant Pattern's Odds and Ends

* Congratulations to Ichiro Suzuki for getting his 4,000th hit between MLB and the NPB of Japan. Two thoughts on that. First, it's a shame that he's never going to recognized, except unofficially, for possibly breaking hit records because such a big chunk of it happened in Japan.

If the NPB isn't greater than or equal to the MLB in terms of talent, it's damn close. There's a reason that Japan has finished in the top three in all three World Baseball Classics (and won two ... the United States has never made the top three). I call it the Herschel Walker Problem, as Walker would be fifth on the all-time rushing list if USFL stats counted. While I'd say the disparity between the USFL and the NFL was greater than that between the NPB and MLB, it was still legitimate enough that I think the keepers of the record books — yes, even the league record books maintained by the MLB and NFL — ought to broaden their scope to recognize worthy players rather than simply protecting their brand.

Secondly, Ichiro is one of the reasons that it seems impossible to dislike the Mariners. They have been a dumpster fire for most of their existence, but turned their fortunes around in the mid-'90s, and did with flair and panache — all of their stars were likeable or at least colorful. Any list of Mariners greats has to begin with Ken Griffey, Jr., of course, and end with Ichiro. But many more have their likenesses etched into the Mariners pantheon in stone just as permanent — Randy Johnson, Jay Buhner, Edgar Martinez. Indeed, in acquiring Buhner, the Mariners accomplished a rare feat in baseball — hosing the Yankees.

* While we are traipsing down memory lane, not long after the Mariners heyday, I was a beat reporter for a weekly shopper called The Suburbanite, covering high school football in the Southern suburbs of Akron, Ohio.

It was there that I realized by my calling: I wanted to be a journalist, a pundit, a writer, and I absolutely did not want to be a reporter. The culture of coverage of American sports from high school to the pros was, and is, poisonous to everyone involved. In a fascinating interview, former Portland Trail Blazers beat writer reveals that he learned of this hard truth with what I consider a surprising amount of slowness and naiveté.

First, he mentions being disheartened when he interviews players and they wax sentimental about kissing their kids goodnight, and then sleeping around on the road. He has much to say about getting to know players, and then they let you down (he's also making some assumptions about relationship dynamics, which differ from couple to couple, but let me not go there).

I would posit two things: number one, and most importantly, players in all sports are coached to death on what to say and what not to say to the media, and some players are very talented at following the company line and conveying the sort of image they want to convey. Maybe I'm the one being naive here, but I just cannot imagine covering a team, getting to know the players, and falling for some sort of, "This player is different. He's honest." bit. The piece also makes me think that Quick has an overly inflated sense of his own importance to the players. Being a professional athlete is very ... busy. Your mind is consumed with practices, games, your families, and your secret affairs. Probably in that order. Reporters don't even register.

He also does himself no favors by pillorying the current object of his coverage, the Oregon football team. He complains that the coaching staff is "almost trying to be difficult. It's frustrating. It's obvious they have no respect for our profession."

They aren't almost trying to be difficult, they are trying to be difficult, unreservedly. And succeeding, sounds like. Here are the rules for dealing with the media that every franchise and program follows.

1. Close ranks.

2. It's not enough to say that criticism isn't allowed. One musn't even give the slightest acknowledgement of poor coaching or game-planning. Everything is fine, we're on the cusp of greatness, we just need to tweak a little more. Criticizing performance and execution is a bit more acceptable, as those are lowly players we're talking about.

3. If you speak in nothing but clichés, you have both fulfilled your obligations to the media and succeeded in giving out no information or insight.

4. Reporters are expected to toe the line. Truth, the cornerstone of good journalism, does not apply here. Sure, the paper should stick it to the politicos and the con artists. For us, their priority needs to be to do PR for us and protect us. Run afoul of this rule, journos, and be prepared to lose access to team facilities.

Granted, some of these rules make sense if applied with sense. If Alex Smith felt entitled to blast Colin Kaepernick in a press conference, that would seriously undermine the team in countless ways. But you can also be interesting and insightful without giving the game away. Chris Kluwe does it. Bill Lee did it. Hell, I'll give Clinton Portis credit for at least coming to press conferences in funny getups. Charles Barkley is not exactly Mr. Popular, but I give him a huge amount of credit for speaking his mind without getting himself drummed out of the league, and now any network that covers the NBA would kill to have him.

The most interesting part of the interview was when Quick revealed that Damon Stoudamire, of all people, showed him a moment of quiet solidarity with the press.

* Contrast that with Kevin Smith, who I suspect, sadly, holds the more common template of a typical player's attitude towards the media.

Maybe he's upset he will never be more than the second-most famous Kevin Smith in America, but, wow. The only word that can be used to describe Smith's treatment of a 19-(!!)-year-old reporter is "abusive." He told the guy that he wanted no "f* *king b* *tches" in the locker room, and, when he asked the reporter if he ever took a curious look at a naked player in the locker room and got a non-affirmative answer, took off his towel.

Shouldn't Smith be straight-up arrested for that? He should be, but of course it won't happen. In 1990, New England tight end Zeke Mowatt exposed himself, this time to a female reporter (Lisa Olson), inviting her to "step up to the mic." For this, he was find a whopping $12,500, which he apparently never paid. For Olson's part, she still gets harassed by fans to this day.

So abuse, sexual harassment and intimidation, non-answers, and general uncooperation is what any sports reporter should expect going in. Never again, for me. But as much as I sort of needle Jason Quick in this column, I'm glad that he and his colleagues have decided to continue to fight the good fight.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:39 AM | Comments (0)

August 21, 2013

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 23

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson's day ended when his engine blew on lap 55 and he eventually finished 40th, but still maintained a healthy lead in the Sprint Cup point standings. He leads Clint Bowyer by 41.

"We're not sure what broke," Johnson said, "but we tried to repair it. With a nod to all the conspiracy theorists who think NASCAR has handed me five Cups, you could say the 'fix' was on.'"

2. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished 5th in the Pure Michigan 400, posting his seventh top-five result of the year. He trails Jimmie Johnson by 41 in the points standings.

"How anxious am I to do a victory burnout?" Bowyer asked. "So anxious, I spun on the first lap."

3. Kyle Busch — One week after winning at Watkins Glen, Busch finished 31st, three laps down, at Michigan, ending a run of six consecutive races with finishes of 12th or better. He remained fifth in the point standings, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 107.

"The handling of the No. 18 Toyota was off all day," Busch said. "Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 FedEx car were not much better. For those two Joe Gibbs Racing cars, you could say 'shipping and handling' was an issue.

"It's off to Bristol now, where I've won five times. I love Bristol, and not just because the tracks suits my style. It's the one place where people call me their 'favorite' and mean it."

4. Kevin Harvick — Harvick took the runner-up spot at Michigan, recording his best finish since a third at Charlotte in May. He is now fourth in the points standings, 64 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Is Kurt Busch joining Stewart-Haas Racing?" Harvick said. "If he does, the SHR team will consist of Tony Stewart, Danica Patrick, Busch, and myself. I like the makeup of that team, especially the gender balance."

5. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 15th in the Pure Michigan 400, posting the best finish among Joe Gibbs Racing cars. Since winning his fourth race at Kentucky in late June, Kenseth has only two top-10 results.

"NASCAR's Facebook page directed viewers to the wrong channel for the race," Kenseth said. "It appears the rule book isn't the only thing of NASCAR giving mixed signals.

"And speaking of Facebook, Carl Edwards is a very active user. It's just like old times for me, because that son of a gun won't stop 'poking' me."

6. Carl Edwards — Edwards posted his 12th top-10 finish of the year with a 10th at Michigan, joining teammate Greg Biffle, who finished ninth, in the top 10. Edwards is now 51 behind Jimmie Johnson in the Sprint Cup points standings.

"Roush Fenway Racing could very well have two drivers in the Chase," Edwards said. "That's got to make Jack Roush happy. They call Jack "The Cat in the Hat" because he's always wearing his trademark Panama hat. And when the Chase For the Cup is all said and done, we might all be wearing some form of headgear. Chances are, though, it won't be a crown."

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — While leading on lap 136, Earnhardt blew his right front tire and slammed the wall, severely damaging his No. 88 Chevrolet. He eventually finished 36th, 29 laps down, and is now seventh in the points standings, 134 out of first.

"My car took a hard turn right, directly into the wall," Earnhardt said. "Usually, the fans of Junior Nation and their conservative political views love anything that's to the 'extreme right.' And my fans, much like my car after the wreck, won't 'turn left' for anything."

8. Kasey Kahne — Kahne was the top finisher for Hendrick Motorsports, piloting the No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet to seventh at Michigan while Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished 40th and 36th, respectively.

"Who would have though Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch would be teammates?" Kahne said. "That could happen in 2014, and lead to an interesting situation: Stewart is Busch's car owner, responsible for getting Busch from race to race. Tony's never been accused of being slow, but in this case, he'll really have to haul 'ass.'"

9. Joey Logano — Starting from the pole, Logano led 51 laps at Michigan and assumed the lead when Mark Martin ran out of gas with three laps to go. Logano's win in the Pure Michigan 400 was his first win of the season, and moved him to 13th in the points standings, in sound position to challenge for a wildcard Chase spot.

"There are some who think Martin will never run out of gas," Logano said. "So it was a surprise when he did.

"Martin got the call to drive the No. 14 Stewart-Haas Chevy for Tony Stewart for the remainder of the year. It makes sense that Martin is there for the reinvention of "Smoke"; after all, he was there for the invention of fire."

10. Kurt Busch — Busch overcame a loose lug nut issue that cost him track position before a late dash moved him up to his sixth top-five finish of the year. He is ninth in the Sprint Cup points standings, two points ahead of Greg Biffle in 10th.

"This was huge for my Chase hopes," Busch said. "I'm in the top 10 now. There's a good chance there will be two Busch brothers in the Chase. That's good news for television ratings, and even better news for the other ten Chasers.

"There are reports that I have a formal offer to drive a fourth car for Stewart-Haas Racing next year. Tony and I have had our differences over the years, but with this contract, I guess we'll finally be 'on the same page.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:32 PM | Comments (0)

Recapping Cincinnati and Previewing NY

The famous cliché "you win the important points and you win the match" proved once again its validity in the last few days of the Western & Southern Open ATP Masters Series and WTA Premier events in Cincinnati, the last major tournament prior to the U.S Open.

There were several examples of the cliché at work, notably in the quarterfinals between Novak Djokovic and John Isner, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, and Victoria Azarenka and Caroline Wozniacki. For example, while Federer produced by far the best tennis in his otherwise dismal 2013 season against Nadal, when he was up a set and on serve in the second set at 4-5 down and 40-30 up, he missed by about a yard an easy sitter on his forehand, from inside the court.

It was a shot that he has been making routinely throughout the first set and most of the second. In fact, it was major part of his winning strategy up to that point. Following that miss, Nadal broke, subsequently raised the quality of his shots, hitting with even more confidence, while Federer fizzled for a few games, never recovering from the early third break in the final set.

In the semi-finals, the same pattern continued. Juan Martin Del Potro won the first set against John Isner, went up a break in the second, and never came within any danger of having his serve broken, until the 5-4 game. In that game, he unexpectedly made two unforced errors from the middle of the court, then double-faulted on match point to lose his serve. He never managed to regain the control that he had until that point and went on to lose the match 6-3 in the final set.

In the second semifinal, Thomas Berdych played toe-to-toe with Nadal for most of the match, producing some terrific tennis, as he has all week. The players arrived to a tiebreaker in the second set. Out of nowhere, Berdych quickly made one unforced error to start the tiebreaker, and then double faulted two points later (one of his only four double-faults for the match). He added two more unforced errors, and before you know it, Nadal won the tiebreaker more comfortably than probably any other game in the match.

In the Na Li vs. Serena Williams semifinal match, Li played several sizzling shots against Williams to come back from 1-4 down in the first set to 5-4 up and serving. Although she won the first point in that game, she then proceeded to hit a forehand sitter in the middle of the court out, and followed it with a double-fault to go down 15-30. She still won the next two points to go up 40-30 and earn a set point. Then once again, she double-faulted, and two points later, hit a high sitter forehand at the service line out by about two yards, a shot that she would normally make in her sleep. She consequently lost the game and the set.

Up 5-4 again in the second set, and once again playing well and controlling the rallies, Li played perhaps one of the worst games of the summer, losing it in less than two minutes to find herself at 5-5 again. The match finished two games later 7-5, 7-5 in favor of Williams who won the match without really playing any better than her opponent, but benefiting from her mistakes on crucial points. In the final match between her and Azarenka, she found herself in the reverse position, as she double-faulted at 5-5 in the final set tiebreaker (her only double-fault of the long set), and two points later, made a forehand unforced error, losing an otherwise entertaining match 2-6, 6-2, 7-6.

There are several conclusions that anyone can be pull from these meltdowns. But most will agree on this: as the week progressed, more and more matches were decided by few points here and there, and those points were won less by the winner raising his/her level of play than benefiting from uncharacteristic mistakes by his/her opponent. The string of tournaments leading up to the U.S. Open and the many hours of practice on hard courts for the last few weeks no doubt prove to be physically taxing on most of these champions.

Hence, those players who are able to raise their mental toughness and concentration to superhuman levels under tension compensate more efficiently for the physical wear and tear. They somehow manage to remain level-headed in the turning points of a match, and stay cool under pressure, and show an extraordinary ability to drive themselves mentally where they cannot physically go. Others succumb to the pressure, feel the fatigue in their bones, become irritable, or simply in this case, commit unforced errors that are unusual by their standards due to a combination of the above factors.

In other words, they crack, like Djokovic did in the last few points against Isner at 5-6 down in the third, or like Li did in the 5-4 games both in the first and second sets. The winners in the cases mentioned earlier, had a tad more left in them at that moment to generate the necessary mental energy and motivation to overcome the increasing possibility of committing an unforced error and subsequently break down.

In any case, this week off will be welcomed by the top players. Isner and Berdych, the only two big names signed up for the Winston-Salem ATP 250 event this week, cleverly called the tournament and pulled out. It would have been a big mistake if they did not. Andy Murray already said that he would take at least two days off in the week leading up to the U.S. Open.

Then, of course, there is Rafa. He keeps on ticking and ticking, regardless of the pressure, surface, and the number of consecutive match days. Although she lost today, I would like to include Serena in this category. Those who follow Serena would agree that what happened today was very rare. Players like Serena and Rafa bring a new meaning to the term "competitor," seem to find that extra little push where none seems to exist, and do not allow their levels to drop down as match after match roll on to one crescendo after another.

This precisely why, in my opinion, even more than their record on hard courts this year, these two players will enter the U.S. Open as the two clear favorites to raise the trophy at the end of the two weeks of Slam competition in Flushing Meadows.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 10:52 AM | Comments (0)

August 20, 2013

2013 Fantasy Football Preview

In most fantasy football leagues, running backs dominate the first round of the draft. There are two good reasons for this:

1. The drop-off from the top RBs to the middle of the pack is extremely steep.

2. Most leagues require two starting RBs, so if you don't draft one early, you'll end up with a glaring hole in your roster.

For standard scoring leagues with 14 or fewer teams, I don't believe you should spend a first-round draft choice on any wide receiver except Calvin Johnson. There's not an obvious difference among A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, etc., and the one you draft in the middle of the second round, or beginning of the third, is probably just as good as the guy you took 12th overall. Only Megatron is a good value early. Honestly, if you take the second WR in your draft, you're probably kind of a chump.

Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are proven fantasy performers, and there's every reason to expect big years from both. But Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, and Matt Ryan all look poised for pretty great seasons, too. Manning and Newton will go in the third round of most drafts, with players like Ryan and Kaepernick slipping to the fourth round in many leagues. If you can draft a stud RB like Marshawn Lynch and still grab an elite QB like Ryan later on, that's a much better value than Aaron Rodgers paired with a fourth-round RB like Lamar Miller or Darren McFadden.

Even if you like the RBs who are slipping, like Reggie Bush or DeMarco Murray, you can play them as RB2. Don't pass on a top running back in the first round to choose a QB who's probably 10% better than the guy you can get two or three rounds later. There are a lot of quarterbacks you can count on to produce points, but that is not true for RBs.

Jimmy Graham is the consensus tight end in fantasy this year, and he's going in the first round of some drafts. That's not the craziest thing in the world, but I'd rather fill my RB1 spot and hope he's still there in the second round, or grab someone like Jason Witten in the fourth. In standard leagues, drafting defense or kicker in the early rounds is lunacy.

So you probably want a running back early. Your early picks are the most important selections, and you want to get them right. Which RBs look the best this season?

Top Tier

These players were top 10 RBs in 2012, and will go in the top 6-8 of most 2013 drafts.

Adrian Peterson should go first overall in almost every league. He's not going to repeat last year's success. No player in history has had two seasons like that back-to-back. But he was the best last year, and throughout his career, he's been a top-five RB in fantasy. Peterson got hurt two years ago, but it was the first major injury of his career, and he certainly looked healthy in 2012, so he doesn't seem like a risk, and the upside is always there.

It's not obvious who to select after Peterson. In PPR leagues, my choice is Doug Martin. As a rookie, he rushed for 1,454 yards, caught 49 passes for another 472 yards, and scored 12 TDs. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and only fumbled once. And perhaps most important, he seems like less of an injury risk than Arian Foster. Foster is a touchdown machine, but he carries a heavy workload, he's had injuries each of the last two years, and last season he wasn't involved in the passing game. Even in non-PPR leagues, you miss those 400 receiving yards he gave you in 2010-11.

Because of his workload and injury risk, you have to handcuff with Ben Tate, and Tate will go in the middle rounds of many drafts. You may have to reach for Tate and wait a round to draft your WR2 or Team Defense, which is a heavy price to pay when you're already investing a high first-round pick. Foster is one of the most talented runners the NFL has seen in years, but I worry about the way the Texans use him, and I wouldn't use a top-five selection on him in 2013.

I prefer Marshawn Lynch and C.J. Spiller. I'd bet that 2012 will stand as the best season of Lynch's career. But I also think he's a safe, solid pick in the early-to-middle first round. He's the full-time starter for a good team, and he's going to score 12-15 points a game in standard formats. Spiller is kind of a wild card, but he's got huge upside, especially in PPR leagues. He spent the beginning of last season splitting time with Fred Jackson, and still ended up as a top-10 fantasy RB.

Jamaal Charles is going second or third in many mock drafts, which I think is too high. I love his talent, but he doesn't score touchdowns. That may change a little bit with Thomas Jones and Peyton Hillis out of the picture, but I just don't see Charles with double-digit TDs, and that's a problem if you're taking him early in the first round. I like him as a 7-12 overall pick, not a 2-6.

Top-Scoring Fantasy RBs, 2010-12
PPR score appears in parentheses

1. Arian Foster, 852 (1,011)
2. Adrian Peterson, 740 (834)
3. Ray Rice, 733 (933)
4. LeSean McCoy, 655 (835)
5. Marshawn Lynch, 594 (Chris Johnson, 724)

Second Tier

These players present risk, uncertainty, or just a low ceiling, and most will be drafted toward the end of the first round in 10-14 team leagues. They could slip to the early second round in leagues with 12 teams or less.

LeSean McCoy missed the end of last season with an injury, and Bryce Brown played well during his absence, so there's a danger that he could get hurt again, or end up splitting time with Brown. But he's a proven talent (see list above), he was playing well before the injury, he's money in PPR, and the Eagles can't possibly commit as many red zone turnovers as they did last season.

Trent Richardson is probably the safest bet of any second-tier RB. A rookie in 2012, he was a top-10 fantasy RB, a little higher in PPR (51 rec). He rushed for under 1,000 yards, 18th in the NFL, which is a huge red flag. But he caught a lot of passes and he scored 12 touchdowns. I like Richardson because he should be the clear starter all season, with none of his backups likely to steal carries. But I worry about a runner who averages under 3.6 ypc, and I don't think he'll see as many catches or touchdowns this season.

The Browns expect improved pass production this year, and that usually means more passes downfield, with fewer underneath to the RB. And last season, only five teams (Chiefs, Cardinals, Jags, Raiders, Eagles) scored fewer TDs than Cleveland. Richardson accounted for nearly half of the team's offensive scoring, and that's not likely to recur in 2013. I would be thrilled with Richardson as an RB2, but as RB1, he's probably just patching a hole. Depending on how your draft goes, maybe you need to take him just so you've got an RB1 who will give you points every week, but to win your league, you'll need to hit big in the rest of your draft.

I have always liked Ray Rice. He's a dynamic runner with fantastic agility and acceleration, and even in non-PPR leagues, his receiving gives him a numbers edge on almost any RB in fantasy. I don't like Rice this year, for two reasons:

1. The Ravens won't be as good this season. They've lost a lot of valuable players, and that means they'll score fewer touchdowns. It also tends to mean more passing and less running, but that's less of a worry for Rice than most RBs. The biggest losses have come on defense, but that affects field position.

2. Bernard Pierce. Toward the end of last season, it looked like the Ravens were using a committee with Rice and Pierce. Here are their rush attempts, broken into groups of four games:

Rice started the season getting 75-80% of the carries, which is normal for him. He's also split time with Willis McGahee and Ricky Williams, and he'll deliver a great fantasy line with that workload. But in the playoffs and the last month of the regular season, Pierce was taking about 1/3 of the workload, and that could be even higher this season.

2012 was a down year by Rice's standards, but he was still a top-10 fantasy RB — top-5 in PPR. For this year, I project him more as top-15 and top-10 PPR, so he's still a legit RB1, but probably not a gamebreaker. If you draft him 10th or 12th overall, you're not getting a bargain, you're drafting him right about where he should be.

Last season, Alfred Morris came out of nowhere to rush for 1,600 yards and 13 TDs. No one expects him to reproduce those numbers in 2013. Everything broke right for Washington's offense last year, and it will probably come back to earth a little bit. Mike Shanahan shuffles RBs like he can't help it, so there's actually a question whether Morris will be the starter all season. And he's not involved in the passing game at all (11 rec), which limits his value in all formats and probably pushes him out of the top 10 in PPR. Picking around 10-16 overall, I'd take Morris, but I wouldn't be excited about it; I'd be nervous.

Third Tier

These players will go in the second or third round of most drafts. They're consistent players with limited upside or talented players with huge question marks.

I don't endorse any of these guys as RB1. I've only named 10 running backs above, so in some leagues, you may get stuck and have to take what's available, but if you're building your team around these players, you could be in trouble. If you draft late in the first round, and you play in a large league or your opponents go really RB-heavy, you might want to reach for receivers early and go RB in the third and fourth rounds.

Safe and Boring: Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Stevan Ridley

Jackson and Gore are perennials. Every season, they're in the top 10, but not top five, RBs in fantasy. Last year Jackson got hurt and slipped to about 15th, but a lot of fans are excited about his move to the explosive Falcons offense, and he's going in the late first round of some drafts. Ridley, a rookie in 2012, rushed for 1,200 yards and 12 TDs. Many fans expect the Patriots to emphasize the run game even more this season, so forecasts are rosy. But Ridley subs out (usually for Shane Vereen) on passing downs. He only caught 6 passes last season. Barring injury, all of these guys are safe bets, but none of them will be top-five fantasy RBs.

Injury Risks: Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMarco Murray, and Darren McFadden

I have no use for McFadden in fantasy. He can't stay healthy, and last season he averaged 3.3 yards a carry. I guess he might have some value in PPR, but in almost every league, he'll get drafted before he's worth the risk. Forte only missed one game last season, but he's just not a workhorse. Rush attempts, by season:

2008: 316
2009: 258
2010: 237
2011: 203
2012: 248

Maybe that will change with the new coaching regime in Chicago, but Forte's limited workload, especially near the goal line (he's never rushed for 10 TDs in a season) caps his value. He's one of those guys who seems to suffer a lot of little injuries, so he probably won't blow out his knee in Week 2 and wreck your season, but he might leave at halftime twice and cost you a couple games when you were counting on him. His value is highest in PPR, where he's good for about 50 catches per season.

Jones-Drew keeps slipping to me in mock drafts. I feel like he's always my second-round pick, and he could probably be yours if you want him. I would love to talk myself into MJD, that he's a great value in the early-to-middle second round, and last year's disappointment was just from the holdout and injury. Jones-Drew is 28, and that's a little old for a running back, but it's not a red flag; lots of RBs have had great years at that age. But how many RBs have a down season at age 27 and then return to elite status?

With ½-PPR scoring (reasonably accurate for both PPR and standard formats), MJD scored 69 fantasy points last season. Since the 16-game schedule, the only RB 27 or older who scored under 75 fantasy points (½-PPR) in a non-strike season and scored at least 220 fantasy points (13.75 per game, 10th in 2012) the next year was Dorsey Levens. He missed most of 1998 with an injury, and he was splitting time before that, starting only 4 of his 7 games. The next season, he started 14 games on a strong offense with Brett Favre, and most of his value comes from TDs and receiving. It's not really comparable to Jones-Drew, for several reasons:

* Levens was 29 that year, but younger in "football years" — he had 606 career rushing attempts before that season, compared to 1,570 for MJD.

* The '99 Packers had a great offense, so Levens got a lot of TD opportunities. The Jaguar offense has ranked in the bottom five two years in a row, and even if it improves, it won't be top-10.

* The '99 Packers passed a ton. Levens only averaged 3.7 ypc, but he caught 71 passes for 573 yards. MJD isn't used that way in the receiving game.

There are about a dozen RBs whose great seasons came more than one year later, or who rebounded to a lower level — say, 175 fantasy points (10.9 per game, 18th in 2012) — but most of them (from both groups) switched teams, usually to a high-scoring offense where most of their value came from touchdowns. That's just not going to happen with the 2013 Jaguars.

Jones-Drew is a full-time starter, not expected to lose playing time in a committee, and unless he gets injured he's guaranteed to produce some value. He was a top-5 RB in 2011, and his injury (missed 10 games) is fully sufficient to explain last year's disappointing stats. But there's no precedent for 28-year-old RBs to return to top-10 status so quickly, especially without switching to a better offense. My gut says that MJD should rush for 1,000 yards and score 5-8 TDs, with an upside that's more like 1,300 yards and 10 TDs. My head says that 27-year-old RBs who miss 2/3 of the season don't come back the next year and play well. Forget 1,300 yards and 10 TDs, even 1,000 yards and 8 scores isn't realistic. Guys who get hurt at that age don't come back and produce. Ahman Green (2005-06) looks like the best case scenario.

My favorite player in this group is DeMarco Murray. His average draft position (ADP) is around 55-60, depending on where you look. That's rounds 4-6 in most leagues. He missed half of last season with injuries, but when healthy, he's a full-time starter for a productive offense. He's always played well when he's on the field, and he has some additional upside in PPR. The injury risk is there, but he has tremendous upside and looks like an exceptional value in the late third or early fourth round. If he falls to you after that, awesome, but you can't count on it in a league with 12 or more teams.

Inconsistency Risks: Chris Johnson, Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, and Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson was the 12th-highest-scoring RB in fantasy last year. He was about the same the year before, and even better his first three seasons, including no. 1 in 2009. But each of the last two seasons, CJ has gotten off to excruciatingly slow starts, and he's very up-and-down, totally unpredictable from one game to the next. In four of his first five games last season, Johnson rushed for under 25 yards and scored no TDs. Using a ½-PPR system, he scored under 10 points seven times, and under 8 in five of them. That's not worth a 2nd-round pick. Up-and-down players can help bad teams win an extra game or two, but on good teams you want consistency, and Johnson doesn't provide that.

In 2012, Reggie Bush rushed for just under 1,000 yards, gained just under 300 receiving yards, and scored 8 TDs. He ranked about 14th in fantasy, a little higher in PPR and a little lower in standard scoring. In 2013, he'll play for the Detroit Lions, where his rushing average should improve and his PPR value goes through the roof. Bush is 28, and his workload has always been sensible (967 career rush attempts). I think he's a great value in the late third or early fourth round. His ceiling is much lower than DeMarco Murray's, but the injury risk is less of a concern, too. I'd draft him as a high-quality RB2. If Bush is your RB1, you'd better have Calvin Johnson, Drew Brees, and Roddy White already.

No Track Record: Lamar Miller, Le'Veon Bell

Miller is expected to start for the Dolphins, and they should be a lot better this year. They lost Jake Long, but added a desperately needed deep-threat (Mike Wallace) and upgraded their defense. If Miller gets most of the playing time (as expected), he should rush for 1,100 yards and score 8 TDs, no problem. But Miller has only played 13 games in the NFL, and most of that was on special teams. He has four games with more than 5 carries, and none with more than 10. If you draft Miller, you're drafting a position (Dolphins RB) more than a specific player.

The same goes for Bell, a second-round pick out of Michigan State. He's a big back (6-1, 230) and he appears to have the inside track to start for the Steelers. If they can actually keep a starting RB healthy, he should gain 1,000 yards in his sleep, and 230-pound backs don't sub out on the goal line. But we haven't seen Bell in the NFL, and the team is being coy about its backfield situation. I'd draft Bell in the right situation, but there's a risk level here that makes me uncomfortable.

UPDATE: Bell was injured on Sunday.

Summary of Third-Tier RBs:

Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Stevan Ridley: Minimal risk, but no upside. Very low-quality RB1 or very high-quality RB2. Matt Forte is probably in this category, too, but there's greater concern about injury and more of his value is in PPR.

Chris Johnson: He'll go in the second round of most leagues. That's way too early for my taste. I'd only draft him as an RB2; you can't count on him as an RB1.

Maurice Jones-Drew: He'll go in the second round of most leagues. That seems like a good value, but I'm not sure it really is. He has to be considered a gamble and I'd draft him as an RB2, not an RB1.

DeMarco Murray and Reggie Bush: 55-60 ADP seems like a steal to me. If your league includes a flex option, you might try to take both of them. Murray has RB1 upside.

Lamar Miller and Le'Veon Bell: Unproven players expected to get most of the snaps on good teams. They're getting drafted around the same time as Murray and Bush, both of whom I prefer. Both have upside, but that's gravy. Assume RB2.

Darren McFadden and Ryan Mathews: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Other RBs of Interest

* Darren Sproles is a great mid-round pick in PPR leagues. He's an RB2 or flex option.

* David Wilson and Andre Brown play for the Giants. If one becomes a full-time starter, he should post low-end RB1 numbers. I worry about committee and injuries, and I'm looking in other directions. You could draft Wilson as an RB2 and cross your fingers, but Brown is probably just a lottery ticket.

* Ahmad Bradshaw switched from the Giants to the Colts. He's expected to see most of the work and he's a decent receiver, but I'd be shocked if he scores double-digit TDs. You could draft him as a backup with upside.

* Rookie Eddie Lacy is the top RB for the Packers. They've used RBBC the past few years, which kills fantasy value. If they return to the model that got Ryan Grant back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons (2008-09), Lacy could produce RB1 fantasy numbers.

* Rashard Mendenhall can't stay healthy and he plays for the Cardinals. Draft at your own risk.

* Shane Vereen is expected to assume the Kevin Faulk role for New England. He has value in PPR and if Stevan Ridley gets hurt.

* I've taken Giovani Bernard in a bunch of mock drafts. The Bengals traded up to draft him, the first RB chosen this year. He may split time with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but he's taking first-team reps, and if he becomes the established starter, he could rush for 1,200 yards and score 10 TDs. He'll also get more work than Law Firm in the passing game, so he has PPR value. He's a little risky as RB2, but he's undervalued in most leagues, and you can probably get him as a backup/flex play.

* DeAngelo Williams is another sleeper. He's been stuck in a committee the last few years, but it sounds like he might get more carries in 2013, and he's always shown explosive potential. Take him as your third or fourth RB, high-risk but high-reward.

* Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead are battling for carries with the Rams. If either one emerges as a clear leader, he's severely undervalued in fantasy drafts.

Backups Worth Drafting

We're talking here about insurance policies and lottery tickets. Many fantasy owners draft their RB1's backup in the late rounds, which we call handcuffing. But some backup RBs are so tempting that other owners will snipe them from you. The most notable names this year:

* Ben Tate, HOU: He's produced in the past, Arian Foster is an injury risk, and whoever plays RB for the Texans is going to score a ton of fantasy points. Part of the reason I'm hesitant to draft Foster is because Tate goes in the middle rounds of aggressive drafts, and it's tough to secure that handcuff.

* Bryce Brown, PHI: He played well last season after LeSean McCoy got hurt.

* Michael Bush, CHI: Matt Forte is an injury risk and Bush gets a lot of the goal-line work even when he's healthy.

* Bernard Pierce, BAL: Started stealing some carries from Ray Rice late last season.

* Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL: Steven Jackson is 30, and Rodgers has PPR value.

Quick Thoughts on...

Quarterbacks

In standard formats, I'm targeting one of the following seven players: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan. I've been getting Ryan in most mock drafts, because he's usually available in the fourth round of 14-team drafts. I don't see a big difference among these guys, so getting any of them in the fourth round is a tremendous value.

I worry about Robert Griffin's knee (and future injuries) and I haven't seen enough from Russell Wilson to feel comfortable with him as my QB1. If I miss out on the top 7, I might just wait and draft Tony Romo or Eli Manning, then take a backup with upside, like Josh Freeman or Sam Bradford. Carson Palmer could be an interesting QB2 in deeper leagues.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson is the clear standout. He's been the top WR (by a lot) for two seasons in a row, he's still young, and everyone agrees he'll score more touchdowns in 2013 than 2012. After Megatron, no one stands out to me. In most 12-to-14-team drafts, I'll go RB in round 1, and some combination of RB/WR in rounds 2 and 3, with a QB in 4 and hope a good TE lasts until round 5.

For that top WR in 2/3, I'm hoping to get one of the following: Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White. Bryant probably has the most upside. Fitzgerald had a terrible 2012, but he's getting a real quarterback again, which should help. Jones is a human highlight reel, but he's shown fragility, and I prefer White's consistency to Julio's upside. I like Marshall a lot; I'd be surprised if he doesn't catch 100 passes, and shocked if he's below 80. I worry a little bit about Thomas losing targets to Eric Decker and Wes Welker.

Antonio Brown should be Pittsburgh's top WR, and I think he's undervalued, a bargain in the middle rounds. In mid-late rounds, I really like Miles Austin (injury-prone but big upside) and Anquan Boldin (played great last year and moved to a team that should score a lot of touchdowns). For deeper drafts, I see value in DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Julian Edelman. Hopkins has created some buzz in preseason, and Houston's offense is so strong that even a middling talent like Kevin Walter can produce good numbers if he becomes a clear no. 2 WR.

Patterson, a first-round draft choice, steps into the hole created by Percy Harvin's departure. The Vikings also added Greg Jennings, and with Adrian Peterson, they'll always field a run-first offense, but I bet Patterson will lead the team in receiving yardage, probably in the neighborhood of 900. Edelman was the Patriots' 6th-leading receiver last season (21 rec, 235 yds, 3 TD), but four of the five guys ahead of him are no longer on the team. He may see more playing time, and he's the backup to Danny Amendola, who gets injured once every 18 seconds. He's got some upside in the later rounds of large leagues.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski is by far the best tight end in the NFL right now, but he's had trouble staying healthy and he won't be ready at the beginning of the season, leaving Jimmy Graham (who is basically just a really big wide receiver) as the clear top option at this position. Graham is far enough ahead that he'll go in the first or second round of many drafts, when you need to draft RB1 and WR1 before they're all gone.

I'd rather wait until the early-middle rounds and take Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Gronk, or Vernon Davis. If I don't get one of those four, I'll focus on other positions and take a couple TEs at the end of the draft. Jordan Cameron is undervalued in most drafts, and Ed Dickson probably won't even get drafted in most leagues. He's recovering from injury and might miss a week or two at the beginning of the season, but with Dennis Pitta out for the year, Dickson is the Ravens' top TE and should post decent numbers.

Team Defense

The least predictable position in fantasy, and the one most dictated by that week's opponent. I still remember the 2003 fantasy season, when one of the guys in my league used all his add/drops to get whoever was playing the Cardinals and got the best overall Defense score in our league. If you choose a three-team rotation that consistently plays some combination of the Cardinals, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Jets, you could probably do pretty well just with that.

Predicting which offenses will struggle is difficult — any one of the four I mentioned above could improve greatly this season — but if you don't land one of the top defenses (SEA, SF, CHI, HOU), you might consider trying to pair two weaker defenses whose schedules complement one another. The Bengals, for instance, have tough-looking matchups in Weeks 3, 5, 7, and 10. The Chargers, Titans, and Falcons all have friendly schedules in those weeks, so they pair well with Cincinnati. Defenses that strike me as undervalued include Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Miami.

Kicker

Just pick an above-average kicker on an above-average team. Don't draft this position before the second-to-last round of your league. It's often hard to predict, and there's seldom a significant difference in the scores of good kickers vs. average kickers.

Draft Strategy

I've had success in fantasy by choosing low-risk players in the early rounds and high-risk players later on. If your first or second pick gets injured, or just fails to produce, your season is probably over. Don't gamble on those picks, because you can't afford to lose. But once you've got your basic needs addressed, roll the dice. In most leagues, it's easy to find players who can score 5-8 points a week, so don't bother drafting someone at that level. At that point, you can afford to take some chances and go after potential gamebreakers: injury risks and the backups who could become major players if the guy ahead of them gets hurt.

In all rounds, make value picks; try to avoid drafting a position just to fill holes.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:49 PM | Comments (0)

August 19, 2013

The NFL All-Newcomer Team, Offense

Every year, the 32 teams of the National Football League open training camps with hundreds of new faces from the previous season. For teams with established rosters, there will be a new crop of rookies, plus some selected free agents. For teams in rebuilding mode, more than half the 90-man camp roster may not have been there last Christmas.

The churn includes coaches, too. If the head coach stays, there are still going to be one or two changes. If it's a new regime in place, we're talking 12, 15 new guys trying to figure out how to construct a team capable of competing.

In other words, the NFL is a transient business. The logos stay the same but most of the guys wearing those logos will be gone in a few years. And that puts an incredible amount of pressure on the front office to pick the right guys to replace them.

With that in mind, the list below honors the best choices to fill the various needs this past offseason. Only players and coaches in new places in 2013 are eligible, and the choices are based on their potential to make a real difference in their new team's performance over last year.

Today, we take a look at the coaches and offense. Later this week, the defense and special teams.

Head coach: Chip Kelly, Philadelphia Eagles

Much consideration was given to Andy Reid (Chiefs), Bruce Arians (Cardinals) and Doug Marrone (Bills), but Kelly doesn't just have the potential to revolutionize the Eagles, he comes with the potential to change offensive football in the NFL. He could take Mike Vick back to the Pro Bowl and make LeSean McCoy an MVP-caliber rusher. Of course that's the ceiling of his potential, and we've certainly seen hype out of Philadelphia turn out rather poorly, but this team will be a must watch every week, and that gets Kelly the spot as the most influential new head coach in 2013.

Offensive Coordinator: Norv Turner, Cleveland Browns

Put it this way: after watching Brandon Weeden carve up the Lions in their second preseason game, Browns fans took to Twitter like they had just found a time machine, travelled back to January 1987, and batted down John Elway's pass to Mark Jackson to cap off The Drive. If Turner can get Weeden to even just respectable-level QB play, there are enough other weapons on the field to make some noise in an anything-but-locked-up AFC North.

Defensive Coordinator: Mike Pettine, Buffalo Bills

Debated going with Ray Horton of the Browns, but Pettine will have the biggest influence over his new team's fortunes this season. The Bills have the talent on defense to be much better than they were under the old regime, and they need to be if they have any chance of catching the Patriots, or at least beating out Miami for second place in the AFC East. If Pettine's attacking scheme can get Mario Williams to play up to his potential, they have all the other pieces in place to become a top-10 defense.

Quarterback: Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

While Carson Palmer may get killed in Arians' deep drop offense, Smith is perfectly suited to Reid's system with the Chiefs. Smith was completing 70% of his passes for an average of 7.97 per attempt before he got hurt and lost his job last season. If he had enough attempts to qualify for the leader board, that YPA would have been good for fourth overall, behind only RGIII, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton. He's not going to take you to the fantasy football championship game, but he will bring a professional approach to quarterback that will allow the offense to function. That's a lot more than the Chiefs have been able to say in a long, long time.

RB: Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions

While it seems like Bush has been around forever, he is still only 28 with fewer than 1000 career carries. He's only missed one game in the past two years, and he has the potential to be a major factor in the pass game. If ever Bush was going to achieve the potential he carried into the League as a Heisman winner out of USC, this is the offense that's going to get him there.

WR: Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers

Now entering his 11th season, Boldin hasn't topped 70 catches or 1,000 yards since his last year in Arizona (2009). He's more of a guy who will kill you with the big third down catch than the guy who will dominate fantasy leagues. So why on this list? Because if he wasn't, Collin Kaepernick would be entering the season with the worst set of starting receivers in the NFL. And possibly the CFL. Maybe even the Arena League. Does NFL Europe still exist?

WR: Danny Amendola, New England Patriots

Wes Welker is better, but Amendola's performance/health this season is more important to Tom Brady and the Patriots than Welker's is to Peyton Manning and the Broncos. If Welker is a bust for whatever reason, Denver still has Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. They'll survive. But if Amendola goes down ... Let's just say that while Brady has worked miracles in the past, this would be asking a lot.

WR: Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks

How can I list a guy who just had hip surgery and may not play until December? Because the season doesn't end until February, and the mix of Harvin's quickness and Russell Wilson's mobility is enough to take this team from just making the playoffs to potentially having home field advantage. They play each of their division rivals during the last four weeks, and face back-to-back trips to San Francisco and New York to face the Giants in weeks 14 and 15, respectively. Having Harvin back will be the key to locking up that one seed.

TE: Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams

This spot was going to Miami's Dustin Keller until he tore up his knee over the weekend. Cook is getting an awful lot of hype at Rams camp despite catching just 44 passes for 523 yards and 4 TD in 13 games with Tennessee last year. Granted, the Titans were terrible, but he's being talked about the next great beak out at tight end now. I'm not buying that, but I am buying the idea that Cook's arrival in St. Louis will be an integral component to improving a Rams defense that couldn't even must 19 points per game last season.

LT: Jake Long, St. Louis Rams

Another weapon for Sam Bradford. With receivers Tavon Austin and Chris Givens, and Cook at tight end, Bradford is going to have some options in the pass game. Now with Long over at left tackle, pushing Rodger Saffold over to right tackle, Bradford should finally have time to go through his progressions.

RT: Eric Fisher, Kansas City Chiefs

If I were just doing tackles in general, I'd probably take Jermon Bushrod, the new left tackle for the Bears. But since I'm going with a legit lineup, that means a right tackle and the first overall pick in April's draft (barely edging out Gosder Cherilus of the Colts). Everything Andy Reid wants this offense to be will depend on how they run the ball. With Fisher now on the right opposite LT Branden Albert, Kansas City has as good a set of tackles as there is in the league. That's going to make the run game effective, which in turn will make the play-action game effective. And that's how the Chiefs are going to make the playoffs.

LG/RG: Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack, Tennessee Titans

Levitre is a free agent signing from Buffalo and Warmack came in the draft. Both are being counted on to restore Chris Johnson to an elite runner, which is the only prayer this team has of surviving this year. If Johnson is back to his CJ2K self, things will be much easier for the accuracy-challenged Jake Locker. If not, we'll be writing about the complete makeover of the Titans front office and coaching staff come this time next year.

C: Travis Frederick, Dallas Cowboys

Eyebrows were certainly raised when the Cowboys took Frederick in the first round of the draft, but everything he's done since then has validated the decision. He's not just going to start, he's taken control of the offense in front of Tony Romo. And the less Romo has to worry about, the more he can focus on setting Dez Bryant up for a top-three MVP finish.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 10:43 AM | Comments (0)

August 16, 2013

Yankee Candle + NCAA = Heaven Scent

* Miami Hurricanes — "Eau Da U" is a mix of sunshine, ocean spray, and gunshot residue that's surprisingly pleasant. It smells so good, it's criminal.

* Ohio State Buckeyes — The Ohio State University's candle boasts an aroma that mixes the mysterious smell of a tattoo parlor with just a hint of compliance. Light this candle, and you're sure to get a response from the noses of friend, and the NCAA will probably come sniffing around, too.

* Texas A&M Aggie — "Aggie Pride" is modeled after football hero Johnny Manziel. Much like Manziel, the A&M candle smells of pigskin and ink. Indeed, it's a "signature" scent.

* UCLA Bruins — Basketball school? Not anymore. UCLA is the home of the 2013 College World Series champions. With a nod to Spinal Tap, Yankee Candle presents "Smell the Glove," leathery goodness tinged with a whiff of well-aged hardwood.

* South Carolina Gamecocks — If Steve Spurrier had his way, USC's candle would be called "Dad Gummit!" and smell like an SEC title trophy. Unfortunately, Spurrier doesn't know candles. A true Gamecock candle smells, and tastes, like chicken: Yankee Candle gives you Pollo By Ralph Lauren.

* North Carolina Tar Heels — You can't say "UNC" without first mentioning Michael Jordan. Throw some wax and a wick into the mix and out comes a candle called "Air Jordan," which emits an aura reminiscent of cigar smoke, a freshly-cut putting green, and infidelity.

* Kentucky Wildcats — The Wildcats candle, which smells of Kentucky bluegrass and weed, is unique in that it's a disposable scented candle. Hence the official name "One and Done." Unofficially, it's called "Fresh, Man!" Basketball coach John Calipari loves the candles, and tries to have at least five of them at all times.

* Louisville Cardinals — What do you get when you cross the smell of an empty restaurant with the scent of raging, middle-aged pheromones? You get "Cardinal Scent," an aroma which is best taken advantage of while on a table.

* Indiana Hoosiers — Although Bobby Knight has been gone for years, his influence, and his stench, remains. As a candle, it's called "Incense-d," consisting of a gentle mix of unbridled rage and a red, polyester sweater.

* USC Trojans — At a school with a football team coached by Lane Kiffin, one would expect a candle with a scent similar to that of smoldering wreckage steaming in a body of water. In Kiffin's honor, Yankee Candle presents "Burning Bridges."

* Oregon Ducks — What does Yankee Candle's Oregon scent smell like? Anything Phil Knight wants it to. The "Money to Burn" candle, no matter how many times you light, always gives off that "new" smell.

* Alabama Crimson Tide — With two consecutive national titles, and possibly more to come, it's no wonder Alabama's candle is named "Nausea." It smells so good, it makes you sick.

* Duke Blue Devils — Athletics at Duke is all about Mike Krzyzewski, so why wouldn't the candle scent? Therefore, it's "Eau K." It smells like napalm in the morning, and also serves as a repellant, warding off anyone or anything not associated with Duke.

* Notre Dame Fighting Irish — To some people, or maybe just one person, the Fighting Irish's candle smells like, as you would imagine, a Stanford girl. To everyone else, "(H)eau(x)" smells like a grass-stained Catholic boy.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:31 PM | Comments (0)

August 15, 2013

Pulling Up the Reins on the Wild Horses

One of my favorite time-killing activities in NFL offseasons past has been to watch the 30-minute highlight videos NFL Films produces for any team in any year. The production value NFL Films puts into each one makes nearly every single edition worth watching.

The editions for the upper-echelon teams just about write themselves. It's the episodes for the truly awful teams that stand out as the finest in sports production. They have a way of making you say going into the next season, "Hey, this team could be something next season," even if it's the same team coming off of a 3-13 season that you and your football-loving friends make the butt of any joke.

That sort of optimism can be found among all 32 rosters right now in the NFL. After all, this is the league where going from four to six wins and a high draft pick all the way to the next January's playoffs isn't just a possibility, but an annual reality. However, once games start, for many of last year's good and bad clubs alike, optimism will fade into a losing record and eventually discontent.

At the beginning of any given season, there are just a few teams that stand out well above the pack as Super Bowl contenders. This year is no exception. The teams most people have shoe-ins, or close to it, for playoff berths are, in no particular order, the Texans, Patriots, Broncos, Packers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Falcons. It wouldn't surprise too many people if both Super Bowl representatives came from those seven clubs.

Out of those seven teams, I am a lifelong fan of one of them, the Denver Broncos.

This is supposed to be "our year." The AFC West is laughably weak, yet again. Wes Welker will play in the slot to make an already-prolific receiving corps one of the strongest in recent memory, not even mentioning the all-time great that will be throwing the ball to Welker, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Offseason moves were made that strengthen the interior of the offensive and defensive lines.

But yet, I can't shake the feeling like the Broncos' status as AFC favorites is completely hype-driven, and that having Peyton Manning and the Welker acquisition are clouding people's judgment of what is a flawed football team.

Yes, Denver went 13-3 last season and returns most of the same important players. But it's worth revisiting how the Broncos got to that record. Last season, the Broncos played just five games against playoff teams, and went 2-3 in those contests. They got to not only play six games against the horrible AFC West, but drew four against the average AFC North and the below-average NFC South. This season sees them play the volatile, but solid NFC East and the AFC South. And while you'll repeatedly see the stat that the Broncos play the league's easiest schedule, that won't account for how teams like Kansas City will improve their win totals in 2013.

Even if schedule karma comes back to the Broncos, it has hardly been an inspiring offseason. Free agency started with a massive fax machine snafu on the part of Elvis Dumervil's agent, causing the one-time sack leader to get released on a technicality. He went on to sign with 2012 nemesis Baltimore. Shaun Phillips was brought in to replace Dumervil on a one-year contract.

Then there was news of Von Miller's suspension, which may or may not be upheld when his appeal is heard in the coming days. If the all-world pass rusher has to sit out four games, early contests against the Ravens and Giants get that much tougher without as reliable a pass rush.

Elsewhere on the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos secondary, which had good stats last season, but was sketchy at times in 2012 (see Moore, Rahim 2013 divisional playoffs), signed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Quentin Jammer, veterans who should make an impact, but have disappointed on other teams in the past.

But the biggest warning flag for the Broncos is their fragile offensive line. Center J.D. Walton is out for a while, his backup (Dan Koppen) is out for the season and Denver had to talk Ryan Lilja out of retirement as a stopgap. Manny Ramirez may get the job after starting most of last season at right guard filling in for Chris Kuper. Kuper just returned to practice, but is coming off a couple of injury-plagued years. It should be noted that Louis Vasquez, a free agent signing from the Chargers like Phillips, is getting rave reviews as a new member of the line.

Yet, a knock on Manning is that he can be disrupted the most up the middle. If the offensive is unstable there, it could be lots of trouble. Additionally, after cutting Willis McGahee, the Broncos top two running backs on the depth chart, Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball, while skilled, are also very young and unproven at this level. The offensive line will have to step up to make sure they get running lanes.

Make no mistake, the Broncos are a quality football team. Even should they win three or four fewer games than 2012, they'll likely still make the playoffs in such a subpar mess of a division. However, teams like the Texans, Falcons, 49ers, and Seahawks have less question marks at this stage of the preseason, and should be viewed as Super Bowl favorites before the imperfect Broncos.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 3:26 PM | Comments (0)

First Round Men's Notes From Cincinnati

Since you can read about the match reports and what the players have said to the microphone in plenty of sites around the web, I will stick with I usually prefer to do, which is to share interesting anecdotes about what is going around the grounds in the early days of the tournament.

First of all, I must express once again how impressed I am with this tournament. This is the first time I have attended this tournament since they began their renovation plan back in the fall of 2009, prior to combining the men's and women's event in 2011. The expanded and renewed facilities have transformed what was already a very relaxed, easy-to-circulate, and well-organized tournament into possibly the most fan-friendly tournament that I have seen in quite some time.

Practice courts are accessible, fans get to watch the players up close, and moving from one court to another is almost like a walk in the park. Players often go through fans to get to the players' area and it is possible to catch a player to ask for a photograph or an autograph, as I have seen one German fan do with Tommy Haas followed by a smile on her face for the following few minutes after the photo.

I am not sure how much Haas or the other players enjoy that particular aspect, but there is no doubt that for a top-level ATP and WTA tournament, Cincinnati offers the fans plenty of opportunities to get close shots of their favorite players. For those coming with cars, there is plenty of parking and volunteers are very helpful with directing traffic once you arrive to the site.

We are barely done with first round matches and there have already been few strange mental collapses. One of the post-Wimbledon clay court circuit stars was the Italian Fabio Fognini, whose meltdown in the last game of his first round match was so strange and extreme that his opponent Radek Stepanek probably won the easiest game of his career without ever having to touch the ball. One set and 5-4 down, Fognini double-faulted twice to go down 0-30. Then, out of sheer disgust, he nailed a ball outside the court, which led to a penalty point since he was already warned once for doing the same thing earlier in the match.

Fognini actually tried to argue that he did not know he was warned earlier. When finally he walked back to serve at 0-40, he lost all common sense and desire, and purposefully foot-faulted twice for another double fault. Game, set, and match, Stepanek! It was so ridiculous that I believe that even the winner Stepanek desired to leave the court quickly after the handshake.

If that sounds like Fognini needs to grow up, Jerzy Janowicz needs to take a chill pill ... in a hurry! Monday night after his loss to James Blake, Janowicz was apparently in such a foul mood that when he was asked to present his credential badge as he was walking out to the car that he was driving (each player is given a car to drive around during the week by the tournament, a tradition in Cincinnati), he got mad for being asked to produce his badge and got into an argument, eventually shoving one of the marshals against the wall. He then got into his car and drove off so mad that he allegedly came close to hitting another car as he began driving. Needless to say, he should be glad that only his driving privileges were taken away and nothing more.

Finally, in a much more minor meltdown, down 6-3, 5-1, Brian Baker slammed his racket against his shoe, breaking either several strings or the frame, or both. He was up 40-15 in the game when it happened. As he began walking to the chair to get a new racket, he actually slowed down, even came to a stop, contemplating just playing with the broken racket the next point or two, then shook his head one second later and resumed walking to the bench.

What was he thinking? That he could win one more point with the broken racket and win the game, thus avoid the trouble of going to the chair to pick up another racket? That the distance from the baseline to the chair was so great that it was worth risking playing with a broken racket to see if he could just win one more point before heading to the chair for the game change? In any case, a solid Grigor Dimitrov did not let Baker's misery last and closed it out in the next game. But still, Baker's momentary loss of common sense was nothing next to the first two above.

Quote of the tournament so far? When asked about his reflections on why there are no Americans in the top 20 for the first time ever, Sam Querrey had the following "reflection": "I mean ... John's 21 or something?"

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 2:35 PM | Comments (0)

August 14, 2013

An Anti-Conference Approach

As college football fans anticipate the start of the season, every other story (if not more) seem to be about Johnny Manziel's off-the-field antics. SC's Brad Oremland covered this topic last week and looked at the angle of amateur athletes not getting paid and the NCAA's hypocrisy related to such topics as memorabilia. I'm with Brad 100% on all that.

In my opinion, what is overlooked in all the offseason hype is this basic reality: if Texas A&M had not transferred to the SEC, we would not care about Johnny Football.

If Texas A&M had remained in the Big 12 they never would have played Alabama, much less managed to beat them. Without that win and without being in the strength of the SEC, Johnny Manziel would have not won the Heisman Trophy and all of us would not only care a lot less about his antics off the field, but I think the antics themselves would either not have happened or gone unnoticed.

The SEC has won the last seven national championships. In the Associated Press rankings for 2013, five of the top 10 teams are from the SEC. The dominance is obvious. Whether or not this dominance is a good or bad for college football is up for debate, but I think it is time to make a major shift in college football.

The past few years have seen a plague of movement in college football conferences to the point where the names don't even make any sense anymore. For 2013, the Big 10 has 12 teams and the Big 12 has 10 teams. The Big East no longer exists and geography doesn't seem to matter to anything except names. Seriously, Colorado and Utah are over 500 miles away from the Pacific Ocean. Missouri is neither in the south or the east.

If geography doesn't matter, let's dispense with it entirely and move forward with a new system that will showcase better matchups, preserve the bowl system, leave room for a playoff, and provide better recourse for punishing teams that have broken the rules. What system could do that? A tiered system such as is used in the Premier League.

For those who are unfamiliar with the system, the way the Premier League works is as follows: there are always 20 teams in the Premier League. After every season, the bottom three teams in the Premier League are relegated or demoted to the Football League Championship. Meanwhile the top three teams from the Football League Championship are promoted to the Premier League. The Football League Championship also demotes its bottom teams and takes on the best teams from League One every season.

If this were adopted for college football here's what it could look like: There are currently 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS, formerly known as Division I-A). These could be split up in to six tiers of 20 teams or four tiers of 30 teams. For now, let's go with four tiers of 30 teams.

Each team would play 12 games. Two games would be reserved for rivalry games played as the first and last games of the season. The other 10 games would be against same tier opponents. Who plays who would be determined by the unbiased selection of a computer.

The top tier would be the only tier eligible for the playoff that would determine the champion each season. I'd suggest an eight team playoff ranked according to record.

The biggest difference between my proposal for college football and that of the Premier League would be how relegation and promotion works. The bottom five teams of the top tier would be up for relegation, while the top five teams of the second tier would be up for promotion. But instead of just switching these teams around, why not have them play in a bowl game? Whoever wins is in the top tier, whoever loses in the second tier. Currently, I watch very few Bowl Games that are not part of the Bowl Championship Series. But if Michigan had to beat Northern Illinois to stay in the top tier, I'd probably watch that game. There's a lot on the line there. There are actual consequences.

Not only would bowl games be more exciting, but the regular season would be far improved. I don't know about you, but I really don't care that Alabama can beat Western Carolina 49-0. Of course they can. Now imagine this totally made up schedule for Alabama.

@Auburn (rival game)
vs. Kansas St.
vs. Boise St.
@ Notre Dame
@ LSU
vs. Oklahoma
@ Clemson
vs. Texas A&M
@ Oregon
vs. Nebraska
@ Louisville
vs. Arkansas (rival game)

I think each week would be worth watching. And I think the days of undefeated seasons would be gone or at least as unlikely as an undefeated season in the NFL.

The SEC's dominance created a strange problem where six of the best 10 teams in the nation at the end of the regular season were in the SEC, but only two of those six teams could play in games reserved for the best 10 teams. In this new system, all of those teams would have been in the top tier and been able to stay without question.

This system would be great for teams like BYU, TCU, or Boise State who created perennial powerhouse teams from perennial weak conferences. They would play teams of similar talent levels and show that they actually belong in the top tier because there would be no such thing as a weak schedule.

But perhaps the most attractive thing about this system would be the ability to punish teams for their transgressions in a fitting fashion. Let's take Penn State as an example. Penn State's crimes were a major offense. What's the punishment? Relegate them to the lowest tier where they will spend a year playing Tulane, Akron, Idaho, and Florida Atlantic. Sure, they'll probably be able to jump up to tier three at season's end, but I bet they'd have a hard time making their way to the top tier within 10 years. And if you don't think that's harsh enough, then relegate them to the bottom tier for two years or five years or whatever is enough to satisfy your taste for judgment.

When all is said in done, this system would even the playing field to create better regular season games, a better playoff system, and not only keep bowl games, but make them better and more valuable. Schools in the bottom rung of power conferences would be the ones to object most vehemently to this proposal. Teams like Kentucky, Colorado, and Duke can't be in love with a system that would put them in the third of four tiers to play against good teams from weaker conferences, but that's where they belong in the football world. If they want to dig themselves out of it, they'll have to work for it.

The top two tiers would be the only ones people pay attention to, obviously with a large focus tending toward the top tier, but isn't that what happens year in and year out anyway. The top teams are the top teams. There are very few surprises as to who that will be in a given year.

Teams whose rankings are doubted would have to win or be demoted — whether that is the often underrated Boise States of college football or the often overrated Ohio States of college football. No team could march through a weak conference. No team could claim their conference was too stacked. Everyone would be right where they ought to be and that's the way it should be.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 3:42 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 22

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished eighth at Watkins Glen, posting his series-best 15th top-10 result. His lead in the Sprint Cup point standings is 75 over Clint Bowyer.

"I envy Kyle Busch," Johnson said. "He faced three restarts in the final 12 laps and still won the race. The last time I faced three restarts, I didn't win a single race. In fact, I lost three.

"But I did officially clinch a spot in the Chase For the Cup. And I'm really intent on winning my sixth Cup title, if for no other reason than to distinguish myself from all the other drivers. As it stands right now, we can all count our championships on one hand."

2. Kyle Busch — Busch held on to the lead through three late restarts and held off Brad Keselowski to win the Cheez-It 355 at the Glen, earning his third win of the year. Busch is now fifth in the points standings, 115 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Keselowski was on my tail," Busch said, "and I kept him there. And Brad surely knows an 'ass' when he sees one."

3. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished sixth at Watkins Glen, joining Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Martin Truex, Jr. in the top 10. Bowyer is second in the points standings, 75 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Unfortunately," Bowyer said, "I'm still winless on the season. That first win is proving to be as elusive as Jeff Gordon at Phoenix."

4. Kevin Harvick — Harvick led eight laps and finished 13th at Watkins Glen, He was the top finisher among Richard Childress Racing cars and is fourth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 101 out of first.

"My future employer Tony Stewart broke his leg in a sprint car accident last week," Harvick said. "It seems he's exchanged a clutch for a crutch. A cast is not the only thing I've signed for Tony this year. This all reminds of the time when the Winston Cup became the Nextel Cup, because NASCAR's gone 'Smoke-less.'"

5. Kasey Kahne — Kahne was spun during a restart with 11 to go and was subsequently rammed by Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Kahne finished 34th, eight laps down, and is 12th in the points standings.

"The S-turns spelled trouble on several restarts," Kahne said. "You could say 'The 'esses' hit the fan.' That left the No. 5 Farmers Insurance car heavily damaged. In other words, it was 'Kahne and dis-able-d.'"

6. Carl Edwards — Edwards posted his best finish since a third at Sonoma with a fourth at Watkins Glen, his seventh top-five of the year. He is third in the points standings, 80 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"The No. 99 Cheez-It Ford was solid," Edwards said. "Double thanks for Cheez-It for sponsoring my car, as well as the race. Who says NASCAR is a sport just for white crackers? It's a sport for orange crackers, as well."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth found trouble on a restart with 10 laps to go when he got into Marcose Ambrose, who clipped Kasey Kahne, sending the No. 5 Hendrick Chevrolet spinning across the track, where it was slammed by Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Kenseth eventually finished 23rd, his second consecutive result outside the top 20.

"I took out two Hendrick Motorsports cars," Kenseth said. "That's one more than Jeff Gordon. Gordon likened Sunday's race to his going stag at his senior prom — he took himself out."

8. Brad Keselowski — After winning the Nationwide Zippo 200 on Saturday, Keselowski nearly completed the Watkins Glen sweep, taking second in the Cheez-It 355 At The Glen on Sunday. The results boosted the defending Cup champ four spots in the point standings to eighth.

"If I did nothing else," Keselowski said, "I gave Kyle and the No. 18 M&Ms car a scare. I could smell the fear. Let's just say his car wasn't the only place where there was chocolate.

"But let me just say this: I will win the 2013 championship. I will win the 2013 championship. I know I said that twice, but that may be the closest I come to a 'repeat.'"

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 30th at Watkins Glen after plowing the spinning car of teammate Kasey Kahne with about 10 laps to go. Kahne was turned around after contact from Matt Kenseth after one of many late restarts. Earnhardt is now sixth in the points standings, 138 out of first, and still searching for his first win of the year.

"Sonoma, home of the season's first road course race, is wine and cheese country," Earnhardt said. "When you put the fans of Junior Nation in the crowd for the Cheez-It 355, it makes Watkins Glen fortified wine and Cheez country."

10. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex battled up front for most of the day at Watkins Glen and finished third, recording his fifth top-five finish of the year. Truex jumped four spots in the points standings to 10th.

"Things are 'looking up' for Michael Waltrip Racing," Truex said. "Does that mean a Cup title is in the future for MWR? Not necessarily. It just means Michael Waltrip is tall."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:26 PM | Comments (0)

August 13, 2013

Running Quarterbacks Win Super Bowls

With the 2013 NFL preseason underway, and the regular season fast approaching, you'll start seeing Super Bowl predictions awfully soon. Occasionally, you'll still come across the assertion that a running quarterback has never won a Super Bowl. If you consider the matter at all, it becomes obvious that this is false, but the idea's still out there, so let's put it to rest.

Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, Steve Young, John Elway, and Aaron Rodgers have won a combined 10 Super Bowls. There. We can go home now, right?

"But wait!" I hear some of you cry. "Those weren't really running QBs! Look at modern QBs like Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III! No one with that style has ever won a Super Bowl!"

Oh, okay. You're right. Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III have never won a Super Bowl. They have played a combined three seasons. Michael Vick's had five healthy seasons, and he's never won a championship, either. But if that's what you mean by a running QB, you're talking about a handful of players over the last 47 years, most of whom probably have their best years in front of them.

What constitutes a running quarterback? If all we mean is guys who have rushed for 600 yards in a season, there are nine such players in NFL history. Three of those nine — Newton, Griffin, and Tim Tebow — have just started their careers, and might well win in the future. That leaves Vick, Bobby Douglass, Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb, and Daunte Culpepper. That's six players. If that's what you mean by a running quarterback, you're not really talking about a category or style, you're just talking about six players. Furthermore, two of them (Cunningham and McNabb) are borderline Hall of Famers, and five of the six led teams to a conference championship game, McNabb five times.

If we use a more realistic definition of running QB, something that's actually meaningful and includes more than a handful of players, we find that some of the greatest runners ever to play quarterback won championships.

Roger Staubach was called Roger the Dodger because of his scrambling ability. In 1971, he rushed for 343 yards — 2nd-most of any QB — with an 8.2 average and 2 touchdowns. He outrushed Bobby Douglass that year, and the Cowboys won the Super Bowl. Staubach ranked among the top 10 rushing QBs every full season of his career, and won two NFL titles.

Terry Bradshaw rushed for over 200 yards in six of his first seven seasons, a span that included two Super Bowl victories. In 1972, when the Steelers made the playoffs for the first time in team history, Bradshaw ran for a career-high 346 yards and 7 TDs, with a 6.0 average. When they won their first Super Bowl in '74, Bradshaw rushed for 224 yards in only 8 games, and out-rushed the entire Vikings team in Super Bowl IX (33-17). In 1975, Bradshaw was the 3rd-leading rusher among QBs, out-gained only by Bert Jones of the AFC East champion Colts, and by Staubach, whose Cowboys he met in Super Bowl X.

Steve Young was one of the most gifted runners ever to play quarterback in the NFL. He finished among the top three QBs in rushing yardage eight times, more than any other quarterback in history. He also led the NFL in passer rating six times, more than any other quarterback in history. His 43 rushing TDs are the most by any QB in the Super Bowl era, and his 96.8 passer rating is 2nd best all-time (Aaron Rodgers).

Sometimes fans try to whitewash Young's brilliance as a runner. In 1994, when Young was named NFL MVP and led the 49ers to a Super Bowl win, he broke the single-season record for passer rating, but he also led all QBs in rushing yardage and scored seven TDs on the ground. When Young was named MVP of Super Bowl XXIX, he set a Super Bowl record that may never be broken, with six passing TDs, but he also led all rushers — including Ricky Watters and Natrone Means — in yards, averaging nearly 10 per attempt.

Other than his final season, he rushed for over 100 yards every year of his career, even when he was injured or a backup. He topped 400 yards five times and scored at least 4 rushing TDs six times. If you ever hear anyone say a running QB has never won a Super Bowl, say the name "Steve Young" and if they don't concede the argument, you can be certain they don't know what they're talking about. Not only was he one of the three or four greatest running QBs of the 20th century, in his Super Bowl-winning season he led all quarterbacks in rushing yards and rushing TDs, and he led all rushers in the Super Bowl.

John Elway ranked among the top 10 QBs in rushing yards 14 times — a record — and rushed for over 200 yards in a season 11 times, another record. That includes four of the five seasons in which Elway's Broncos reached the Super Bowl. Elway started five Super Bowls and won two, but his most famous play in those five games wasn't a pass, it was a scramble: The Helicopter in Super Bowl XXXI.

Aaron Rodgers doesn't seem like a running QB compared to last year's breakout stars, like RG3 and Colin Kaepernick. But he was the 2nd-leading rusher among QBs in 2009, 3rd-leading in 2010, and 4th in 2011. The Packers made the playoffs all three seasons, including a Super Bowl win in the '10 season. That year, Rodgers rushed for at least 20 yards 11 times in the regular season, plus the NFC Championship win over the Bears.

You could also argue for Joe Theisman, Joe Montana, Jim McMahon, and Brett Favre to be included among running QBs who won Super Bowls, but even without them, there are half a dozen who did. Of the 30 starting QBs who have won Super Bowls, about 20% of the them were among the best rushers at their position. That doesn't even include great runners who won championships before the Super Bowl, like Otto Graham and Bobby Layne.

The standard assertion is that a running QB has never won a Super Bowl, which great scramblers like Staubach and Young clearly disprove. Any argument that doesn't count those guys as "running QBs" is pointless. If you're only talking about Bobby Douglass, Randall Cunningham, and Michael Vick, then yes, none of those three won a Super Bowl. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick have their whole careers ahead of them, and it's crazy to blame them for not winning as rookies.

And you don't need to go back even as far as Steve Young, a modern player, to find a running QB win a Super Bowl. The Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl in February of 2011. Among QBs, the leading rushers that season were Michael Vick, Josh Freeman, and Aaron Rodgers. Earlier this year, the 49ers came up short in the Super Bowl, but Kaepernick's running devastated the Green Bay defense in the playoffs. Three of the top four rushing QBs, and six of the top 10, led their teams to the playoffs, so it's hard to cite running skill as a barrier to success. In fact, let that word "skill" serve as an indicator of something that helps teams win, not the other way around.

For anyone who stubbornly clings to the idea that running QBs don't win, the one remaining argument — even weaker than the others — is that a "running QB" is one who runs well but isn't a good passer. That excludes players like Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers — but it excludes everyone else, too. Who's left? Bobby Douglass, okay. Maybe Kordell Stewart. And Tim Tebow. That's it. Guys who can't throw don't win Super Bowls because they don't play quarterback in the NFL.

I'll leave you with two lists of accomplished running QBs. Super Bowl winners are marked with an (*) asterisk.

Most rushing yards by a quarterback, career
Super Bowl Era (1966-present)

1. Michael Vick, 5551
2. Randall Cunningham, 4928
3. Steve Young, 4239*
4. Steve McNair, 3590
5. Donovan McNabb, 3459
6. John Elway, 3407*
7. Kordell Stewart, 2874
8. Jim Harbaugh, 2787
9. Greg Landry, 2655
10. Bobby Douglass, 2654

Also in the top 20: Staubach (2264) and Bradshaw (2257)

Most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback, career
Super Bowl Era (1966-present)

1. Steve Young, 43*
2. Kordell Stewart, 38
3. Steve McNair, 37
t4. Randall Cunningham, 35
t4. Steve Grogan, 35
t6. Daunte Culpepper, 34
t6. Michael Vick, 34
8. John Elway, 33*
9. Terry Bradshaw, 32*
10. Donovan McNabb, 29

Also in the top 20: Montana and Staubach, 20 each

Staubach had a short career, about 9½ seasons, and played a 14-game schedule. Give him 16 games and a career that began when he was 23, he'd be top-10 on both lists. Aaron Rodgers already has 1442 yards and 18 TDs, after only five seasons as starter. The new wave of running QBs may catch him before he reaches the top 10 in yardage, but I bet he'll make the top 10 in TDs before his career is up. Of course, by that time, Griffin and Kaepernick and Newton and Wilson probably will have won a ring or two of their own.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:28 PM | Comments (0)

August 12, 2013

Pujols Ready to Jack the Ripper

Albert Pujols may not have been able to hit as customary for the last couple of seasons, thanks to nagging trouble with plantar fasciitis in his heel. But if you prick him in just the right place he can swing big with words just as deadly. Fellow former Cardinals first baseman Jack Clark may be preparing to learn the hard way just how deadly that might be.

In his first, and what turns out to be final, week co-hosting a St. Louis radio sports talk show, Clark threw down a nasty charge that Pujols has been using actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances for a very long time. The moment the news of Clark's outburst reached the now-disabled Angels slugger, Pujols swung back. Almost as hard as he's hit enough of his home runs.

With a no-holds-barred threat of litigation against Clark and WGNU-AM, after show owner inside StL unloaded Clark and his air partner Kevin Slaten, who opened the door in the first place after first commenting he merely "believed" Pujols to be on the juice, provoking Clark's rant — following a mere seven programs. "I am currently in the process of taking legal action against Jack Clark and his employers at WGNU 920AM," said Pujols in a formal statement issued Friday.

If Pujols follows through with that threat despite Clark's and Slaten's executions, the most likely charge would be slander. There could be one or two more, depending, in that instance. Pujols wasn't the sole target of Clark's anti-PED tongue, but Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander merely dismissed Clark's comments about him as "moronic." So far.

The more jarring note in the Pujols statement is that it's fashioned in perhaps the strongest language yet fashioned by any player fighting off or trying merely to ward off accusations of using actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances. The statement continues:

"I am going to send a message that you cannot act in a reckless manner, like they have, and get away with it. If I have to be the athlete to carry the torch and pave the way for other innocent players to see that you can do something about it, I am proud to be that person. I have five young children and I take being a role model very seriously. The last thing I want is for the fans, and especially the kids out there, to question my reputation and character.

"I've said time and time again that I would never take, or even consider taking, anything illegal. I've been tested hundreds of times throughout my career and never once have I tested positive. It is irresponsible and reckless for Jack Clark to have falsely accused me of using PED's. My faith in Jesus Christ, and my respect for this game are too important to me. I would never be able to look my wife or kids in the eye if I had done what this man is accusing me of.

"I know people are tired of athletes saying they are innocent, asking for the public to believe in them, only to have their sins exposed later down the road. But I am not one of those athletes, and I will not stand to have my name and my family's name, dragged through the mud."

Clark may have shot himself in the proverbial foot most profoundly when he based his accusation on a decade-old conversation he claimed to have with Pujols's former personal trainer, Chris Mihlfeld, at a time Clark was working as the Dodgers' hitting instructor and Mihlfield also worked for that team.

"The trainer that worked with him, threw him batting practice from Kansas City, that worked him out every day, basically told me that's what he did," Clark said of Pujols. "[Mihlfield] had told me what he was doing with Poolie — threw him batting practice, worked him out, shot him up, all that stuff."

The problem is that Mihlfield himself denied such a conversation. "I haven't even talked to Jack Clark in close to 10 years," he told NBC Sports Friday, when Clark's rant began whipping around the country. "His statements are simply not true. I have known Albert Pujols since he was 18-years-old, and he would never use illegal drugs in any way. I would bet my life on it and probably drop dead on the spot if I found out he has. As before, once again both Albert and myself have been accused of doing something we didn't do."

Clark isn't exactly unknown for pronouncing strongly and nastily about actual or alleged PED users in the recent past. He once said the sight of Mark McGwire in a Cardinal uniform, after McGwire's public confession and hiring as the Cardinals' batting instructor (a job he now holds with the Dodgers) "makes me sick to my stomach."

He's also no stranger to the legal world. A little over two decades ago, Clark was the most infamous bankruptcy case in professional sports, filing in 1992 with a listed $6.7 million in debts he couldn't repay, involving a drag racing team in which he invested heavily, 18 high-ticket cars and 17 of which he could no longer pay the still-active notes, a third luxury home, and a middle five-figure credit card debt.

Five years later, with most of his financial trouble resolved, Clark would blame his own foolishness for his initial trouble. But he'd also tangle with a financial adviser and two attorneys he accused of mishandling the large dollars he received as a settlement from one of baseball's 1980s collusion cases. You'd think the last thing he would want now is to have another round with the legal system, period, never mind one in which he might stand as the accused.

Once upon a time, Clark hit such monstrous home runs when healthy that he was known as Jack the Ripper. (His then-Giants teammate Vida Blue hung that sobriquet upon him.) Especially the 3-run bomb he hit in Game 6, 1985 National League Championship Series, when Tommy Lasorda was foolish enough to let reliever Tom Niedenfeuer pitch to him with first base open and the Dodgers one out from going to the World Series.

Now, Clark's tongue has cost him a radio job and provoked Albert Pujols to the single most emphatic, least weaseling denial of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances on record. Even if it had to come on the heel of threatening to Jack the Ripper in court.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:25 PM | Comments (0)

Bad Cop Never Wins

I need to ask a favor.

For a moment, I need you to put aside your feelings on performance-enhancing drugs. Forget where between "slimy narcissist" and "aspiring sociopath" you have slotted Alex Rodriguez. Try to separate your rational mind from the lobe enraged by the indignity of dozens of baseball players lying to your face.

Now let me seriously ask: what if Major League Baseball's summer crusade against PEDs is a colossal mistake?

In 2011, MLB and the player's union signed a collective bargaining agreement that introduced a long-overdue PED policy to baseball. And, like any sustainable justice system, it created a process for the accused to face the evidence of their wrongs, a third party to review the case, and an established scale of punishment to be enforced. As citizens, we call it due process, and its inherent transparency helps us believe in the system. Baseball had taken a step toward identifying PED users.

And then Dino Laurenzi Jr. happened.

Laurenzi, you probably remember, is the collector who improperly stored Ryan Braun's urine sample that eventually tested "insanely" positive for PED indicators (timeline refresher here).

This embarrassment must have humiliated Selig; his fancy new fishing net just let a great big whale swim through its holes.

So when a witness from a possible PED supplier became available, Selig couldn't help himself. Having spent the golden years of his commissionership scrubbing at the stains rampant, unchecked PED use left on his legacy, Selig finally had a weapon.

Generously interpreted, Bud Selig's Ahabian hunt to harpoon his sport's most egregious chemical cheaters compares to The Shield's Vic Mackey or Justified's Raylan Givens. Like those line-walking authorities, Selig has employed a Machiavellian disdain for the failings of the letter of the law, preferring to inflict justice upon those who almost indisputably deserve it, due process be damned.

Selig's approach, however, is fatally flawed. Regardless of whether an arbiter eventually upholds Rodriguez's 211-game suspension, the commissioner's victory will be a Pyrrhic one.

Even if a dozen players ranging from superstars to minor leaguers were busted, the Biogenesis case sends a clear message: nobody believes in the PED policy.

Clearly, the players don't. These suspensions cover players connected through unsophisticated accounting to a single lab. In all likelihood, there are several more labs better at protecting their clients. These punishments seem as temporary as pulling the leaves off of a weed and hoping the remaining root won't simply replace them with new sprouts.

But there were always going to be cheaters; the player's incentive to get an edge is too great. No, the most disappointing part of Selig's Folly is the admission of regulatory defeat it announces.

Without question, Selig and MLB only embarked on their campaign of media leaks, leveraged negotiations, and whatever they are doing with Rodriguez because they know their PED policy is a bust. After all, if a rule is working, there is no need to seek its intended goal through additional measures.

By threatening the invocation of the Best Interest of Baseball clause and a portfolio of other litigative guerilla tactics, Selig buried his PED policy before its second birthday. Instead of leaving a legacy of a system built to seek and punish PED offenders, the commissioner set the precedent of having to construct case-by-case circumstantial dossiers where suspicion spawns paranoia and consequences are arbitrary. Joseph McCarthy would be proud.

The problem with by-any-means heroism is eventually the hero crosses a gray line in his pursuit of something noble. Beyond that border, we have to wonder: is he still the good guy?

In the face of real justice's failure, Selig chose to exact his idea of street justice. We've seen this show before; the bad cop never wins in the end.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:34 AM | Comments (0)

August 10, 2013

Secrets of the 2013 NFL Season (Pt. 2)

Also see: Secrets of the 2013 NFL Season (Pt. 1)

* Arizona rookie Tyrann Mathieu, after originally trying to distance himself from "The Honey Badger" nickname, decides to embrace it, and finances the printing of 10,000 placards given to fans at the Cardinals home opener versus Detroit on September 15th.

Regrettably, a printing error that remarkably goes unnoticed results in home fans waving signs that read "THC" instead of "THB."

Mathieu laughs off the error, and returns an interception 81 yards for a score in the Cardinals 27-24 win. Later in the week, Mathieu celebrates his selection as NFC Defensive Rookie of the Week, and then laments his selection for a random drug test.

* Russian president Vladimir Putin meets Robert Kraft in Foxboro in late August as a guest of the Patriots' owner. At a press conference to finally quell the controversy surrounding the Super Bowl ring "gift," Putin promises to return Kraft's Super Bowl ring in 3-4 days, then swallows it.

* Kansas City's Jamaal Charles leads the league in yards from scrimmage, amassing 2,489 in the Chiefs 7-9 campaign. Charles' crowning achievement comes on September 19th in Philadelphia, when he records 269 totals yards and 3 touchdowns to lead the Chiefs to a 27-21 win over the Eagles.

* Adrian Peterson, who boldly predicted that he'll catch Emmitt Smith in 2017 to become the NFL's all-time leading rusher, in fact catches Michael Irvin instead, when Peterson's speedboat overtakes Irvin's chartered yacht on Lake Minnetonka on October 6th.

Peterson requests permission to board Irvin's vessel, but is shot down, thus becoming the first football player "denied entry" on a Lake Minnetonka sex cruise.

Peterson rushes for 1,893 yards on the year as the Vikes finish 8-8 in a three-way tie for second in the NFC North behind the 10-6 Packers.

* In late September, Arian Foster pulls a left hamstring in a charity game of Twister for radio station Sunny 99.1 FM. During a subsequent visit to the hospital, doctors make a shocking discovery when they realize that Foster's leg has two hamstrings.

Upon learning of the diagnosis, Texans head coach Gray Kubiak says, "You're pulling my leg."

Foster misses six games on the year, but the Texans finish 10-6, tied with the Colts atop the AFC South, and tumble in the wild card round to the Steelers.

* The Packers retire Brett Favre's No. 4 jersey during halftime of Green Bay's November 24th contest versus Minnesota at Lambeau Field. During the ceremony, Packers president and CEO Mark Murphy announces that a street will be named in Favre's honor. The road, called "Brett Favre Drive," is a one-way street that leads directly out of Green Bay.

After the ceremony, Favre inadvertently walks to the Vikings side of the field, then misses his flight to Mississippi and instead ends up at LaGuardia International Airport.

* Seattle's Percy Harvin, after a break from an intense rehabilitation workout in late September, re-injures his hip while skipping to the bank to cash a check in downtown Eden Prairie.

* Already a cult hero in Pittsburgh, Brett Keisel's popularity skyrockets worldwide when his new t-shirt, featuring the slogan "Get a Face Full of Hair," goes on sale on his web site. Sales reach 1,000,000 in one week, and are particularly brisk among 18-35 year-old males, and fans of the Indigo Girls.

* While in London for the 49ers October 27th matchup against the Jaguars, Colin Kaepernick adds to his notable tattoos with new ink that reads "I Love Queens!" It's a popular tattoo with the British, and becomes even more popular upon Kaepernick's return to San Francisco after a 31-9 49ers win.

The 49ers capture the NFC West with an 11-5 record, and advance to the NFC title game, where they fall 28-24 to the Falcons in Atlanta.

* Buffalo rookie EJ Manuel wins the starting job over Kevin Kolb, wowing coaches and teammates with elusiveness and arm strength that reminds many of a cross between Jim Kelly, Doug Flutie, and O.J. Simpson hurdling through an airport.

After a tough period in mid-October, Manuel briefly loses the starting spot to Kolb, but regains it one play later.

* Rob Gronkowski reinjures his left forearm high-fiving Johnny Manziel after the two successfully double-beer bong a 12-pack at a Los Angeles party hosted by Wilmer Valderama in early October.

The pair later hooks up with Amanda Bynes and Lindsey Lohan, resulting in further injury when Lohan backs over Gronkowski's right foot in a stolen Bentley.

Gronkowski is confined to a leg cast for eight weeks, during which his weight balloons from a healthy 265 to 325. Upon seeing the overweight Gronkowski on the sidelines during New England's November 18th Monday night game at Carolina, ESPN's John Gruden dubs Gronk's rear end the "Badonka-Gronk."

* St. Louis defensive ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn combine to record 29.5 sacks, tops among defensive end duos in the league. The Rams end the season as the NFL's sixth-ranked defense in the league, as St. Louis finishes 9-7.

* Rex Ryan names Geno Smith the starter two weeks before the Jets season opener against Tampa Bay. Ryan neglects to inform Mark Sanchez, who learns of the news from a New York Post headline reading "No Gen'-ius."

Despite the demotion, Sanchez is supportive of Smith, and has nothing but good things to say about the rookie, quipping than "in addition to girls, I like guys four years my junior, as well."

* In an online poll on the Jacksonville Jaguars web site, participants are asked to choose a starter at quarterback. Two weeks later, after the poll results in no responses, a new poll is launches, offering participants a list of QBs from which to choose.

Eventually, Blaine Gabbert collects the most votes amongst current Jaguar quarterbacks, while write-in candidate Mark Brunell easily wins the poll.

On the season, the Jaguars start a total of seven quarterbacks, including two McCowns, and finish 5-11, last in the AFC South.

* For their December 8th meeting with the Seahawks in Candlestick, the 49ers promotions department offers fans a "Stimulant Package," which includes a free sample of Adderall, a pamphlet warning of the dangers of illicit stimulants, an "Adderall Stars" poster, a signed photo of the Seahawks No. 1 octogenarian fan, Poppa Pill, and a Richard Sherman sock puppet.

San Fran whips the angered Seahawks 19-6, and Pete Carroll confronts Jim Harbaugh at midfield after the game, asking "What's your deal?" Harbaugh replies that he'll postpone his answer for four weeks, more familiarly known as a "four-game suspension."

* Roger Goodell attends a Legends Football League game September 1st and is immediately struck by the physicality of play, as well as the scarcity of clothing. Looking for a cross-promotion opportunity, Goodell names Week 4 "They Say 'Legends,' We Say 'Lingerie'" weekend, and instructs officials to toss yellow lace panties to indicate penalties.

The promotion is a bust to everyone but Ben Roethlisberger, who leaves the field in Minnesota after the Steelers 24-23 loss with a handful of souvenir "flags."

* New father and new husband Jay Cutler accepts an offer from Chicago native Oprah Winfrey to appear in a new reality show on OWN network called "And Baby Makes Two Babies."

The show follows the life of Cutler, wife Kristin Cavallari, and their son Camden Jack. "ABM2B" becomes a sensation when Camden Jack blows out his knee in a game of Duck Duck Goose yet remains in the game until the end.

In the series' touching finale, Cutler and Chicago Bulls star Derrick Rose discuss toughness while pedaling on stationary bikes.

* Philadelphia's Riley Cooper challenges LeSean McCoy to a 40-yard race in training camp, with the stipulation that the loser must attend a concert of the winner's choosing. Cooper edges McCoy by half-a-yard, then immediately plays the race card, forcing McCoy to attend a Merle Haggard concert Altoona, Pennsylvania.

* Vince Young makes the most of his signing with the Packers, earning the backup job to Aaron Rodgers after an impressive preseason. Revitalized and renewed, Young rebrands himself "Vince 2.0," which he insists has nothing to do with his recent retaking of the Wonderlic test.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:26 AM | Comments (0)

August 8, 2013

Beware Innuendo, Even With and After Biogenesis

I'm not exactly sure, but I could have sworn the hoopla over the Biogenesis 13 didn't include as much discussion as it should have regarding those first suspected who've been shown to be clean. I have in mind specifically Gio Gonzalez, the effervescent pitcher for the Washington Nationals.

Gonzalez didn't have to wait until Monday, Bloody Monday. Not only did ESPN uncover the fact that the lefthander never received a single actual or alleged performance-enhancing substance from Biogenesis, but Gonzalez passed a drug test shortly after the scandal broke in the first place. And, we must presume now, all since.

But you had to read almost to the bottom of most of Monday's stories to know that. My own referenced Gonzalez about a third of the way through. It was still insufficient, and for that I apologize.

So how on earth did Gonzalez find himself on the Biogenesis hit parade? By the thing which most of us tend to forget even as we record proper outrage over those fools who continue dabbling in actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances despite the tightening of baseball's program against them and the consequences for those previously caught.

Gio Gonzalez got onto the hit parade by innuendo and inference, because his father had been a Biogenesis client going to the clinic for the reason it purported to exist in the first place: a wellness center with a particular focus on weight loss. Neither innuendo nor inference is the same thing, ladies and gentlemen, as evidence. But that is what the drug issue in baseball has come to. And it's as wrong as are the players who actually do indulge.

It was evidence, not innuendo and inference, that finally bagged Ryan Braun and the Biogenesis 13. It was the absence of evidence that cleared Gonzalez weeks if not months before the hammer dropped Monday and, oh, by the way, let's remember that Gonzalez (and Baltimore Orioles infielder Danny Valencia) aren't dirty in any way, shape, or form.

"We believe," Edward R. Murrow once intoned, in an earlier era involving a different issue, "that the son shall not bear the iniquity of the father, even though that iniquity be proved — and, in this case, it was not."

Murrow spoke of Milo Radulovich, a lieutenant in the Air Force Reserve and a University of Michigan student, whom the Air Force discharged not for any Communist sympathies or leanings of his own, but for those purported to be held by his father and sister. His father, a Serbian immigrant who worked in the auto industry, subscribed to Serbian-language newspapers, including one thought too favorable to the regime of then-Yugoslavia's Tito; his sister picketed a Detroit hotel that refused lodging to music/theater legend Paul Robeson, who was an unapologetic admirer of Joseph Stalin.

"The Case of Lt. Milo Radulovich A0589839 aired on Murrow's fabled See it Now in October 1953. (Famously, CBS wouldn't promote the installment, edgy because regular sponsor Alcoa depended on military contracts; Murrow and his co-producer Fred Friendly paid for their own ads.) The show provoked the Air Force to reinstate Radulovich, who eventually moved to California to make a career with the National Weather Service. (He died in 2007.)

The question of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances in sports probably sits as a minor one compared to the question of citizens or military personnel supporting a totalitarian regime and its international political arms whose survival depended upon tyranny and murder. But the question of taint by mere suspicion or association shouldn't.

"My son works very, very hard, and he's as clean as apple pie," said Gio Gonzalez's father, arguing remarkably like John Radulovich half a century earlier, though it's possible the elder Gonzalez might have no idea of what was the Radulovich case.

"I went to Tony [Bosch, former Biogenesis chieftain] because I needed to lose weight," he continued. "A friend recommended him, and he did great work for me. But that's it. He never met my son. Never. And if I knew he was doing these things with steroids, do you think I'd be dumb enough to go there?"

His son could have uncorked a venomous rejoinder knowing he'd been cleared well before Monday, Bloody Monday. But the pitcher took a road higher than a certain blue whale among the Biogenesis 13's anchovies has been known to take since becoming suspect himself:

"I am very pleased that Major League Baseball has cleared my name. With this process now complete, I have no lingering sense of animosity, as I quickly realized that the objective of this investigation was to clean up our game. This is an ideal that I share with both Major League Baseball and the MLBPA. I would also like to acknowledge the unwavering support of my teammates, [Nationals owners] the Lerner Family, [general manager] Mike Rizzo, [manager] Davey Johnson, our coaching staff and Nationals fans everywhere."

Gonzalez could have delivered a kind of up-yours! to baseball government and he'd have been wholly justified in so doing. That he didn't says even more for him, against the Biogenesis 13, and on behalf of the continuing battle against actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances.

A battle that deserves to be fought with evidence, not innuendo; facts, not inferences. Say what you will about how heavy-handed baseball government may have been in pursuing Biogenesis, but in the end they moved with evidence and facts and 13 players came up tainted and duly disciplined.

But there are times enough when it seems too much to ask of Joe Fan that he allow such evidence and facts to get squarely in the way of a delicious innuendo and of guilty-until-proven-innocent.

We don't know for dead last certain what actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances have or haven't done for given players. (Even if we could and should point to how many of the actual guilty experienced few if any statistical spikes during their usage periods.) We do know that their characteristics and, especially, their health risks, are questionable enough that baseball finally took the matter dead on, after years of denial, and moved against them, while enough of a minority of players still continued to indulge them.

The tainted players, of course, have brought the guilt presumption too full forward, to the point where we are compelled to swim in ridiculous debates over what is "supposed" to be, or what a player is or isn't "supposed" to do in the field, on the mound, or at the plate. Which is one major reason why there has been a gradual but profound swell of opinion among players themselves and their union on behalf of rooting out the tainted.

But they know, too, that the rooting out must be done with evidence and facts, not innuendo and inferences. And if the U.S. Air Force could and did restore a young man when the evidence and facts outweighed the innuendo and inferences, once upon a time, so can and must baseball world, from the fans in the stands to those who play, govern, report, and analyze the game.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 3:59 PM | Comments (0)

CFL Logos, Past and Present

As regular readers know, I try to promote the CFL in this column as an outstanding holdover for those sad football-less summer months. Regular readers also know I like to write about logos. So let's combine the two and look at a little history of CFL logos. All logos courtesy sportslogos.net.

BC Lions — Simple, clean, good, understated without being boring, basically unchanged for 33 years, a solid logo. I also like how their alternate "paw" logo actually includes claws, which bafflingly (I'm looking at you, Clemson), many teams using paw prints do not.

Calgary Stampeders — I'm going to catch flak for this, but y'all can't handle the truth. Compare their logo with SMU's, which debuted five years previous. There are some minor differences, sure. But look at the legs and especially the tail. That goes beyond being "inspired by." That's straight-up plagiarism. The alternate logo does nothing for me, either. Too much neck shadow and not enough face. But their word mark from 1993-2004 is wonderful. I will never understand why more teams do not use multiple animals/warriors/entities/whatever in their logo. So of course, they got rid of it.

Edmonton Eskimos — I think I know enough about the CFL to say this is considered a "classic" franchise with looks and colors that largely shan't be trifled with. And I imagine that's why the polar bear you see from 1996-97 only lasted one year. But come now ... that's one awesome polar bear, ripping it open like Superman and all. You should've given it a chance, Eskimo fans!

Hamilton Tiger-Cats — The Canadian Nazi Front really hated their 1967 logo. Their current logo also gets a high grade from me, particularly for using the entire tiger's body. I have to chuckle at the ridiculous amount of detail that existed in their logo prior to 1995.

Montreal Alouettes — Just okay. I'm sure that this is to give a slight patina of resemblance to an actual skylark, which is what "Alouette" is French for, but I call their present logo "Super Eyebrows." The condition is writ even larger in their alternate logo. I can't say enough about their 1970-1974 logo. I absolutely love abstract logos like this, and I think red and green is an underutilized combination in sports.

Ottawa Redblacks — This is a team that will start play next year, hence no history. They should already have an alternate logo if you ask me. As it is, I can hear the buzz-saws being played on the stadium PA on first downs and yelling "TIMBERRR" after touchdowns already (yes, I know you wouldn't use that kind of saw to cut down a tree).

Saskatchewan Roughriders — I like the subtle nod to Saskatchewan's farming industry, but what I like most of all is simply: green.

When I was a kid, green was my favorite color, and this was represented well in the NFL by the Jets and Eagles (and I'll throw in Michigan State for good measure). Now, almost every American program has decided, "Bright green is is for wusses! Green needs to be dark!" And they all have followed suit. Not Saskatchewan though, and bless them for that.

Toronto Argonauts — They belong in the same jail as Edmonton and Calgary, convicted of "getting rid of great logos," but they get a longer sentence than those two teams combined. LOOK AT THE 1995-2004 LOGO! LOOK AT IT! And the football-as-ship logo from the '50s to the '80s! "Bleargh, let's just do a shield with an 'A' on it. Bleargh."

Winnipeg Blue Bombers — The football on a zigzag is awesome, and they made it far in the "Best Logo in Sports" contest run on the Sports Central Message Boards many, many years and ... what's this? Of course they got rid of it last year.

Conclusion: the CFL is, aesthetically speaking, slippin'.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:45 PM | Comments (0)

August 7, 2013

The Parcells Polemic

This year's Hall of Fame weekend offered football junkies an extra treat. In addition to getting our usual first fix of live game action, we had one more chance to hold the coattails of Bill Parcells on his procession down the hallowed halls of Canton. It was a love fest deifying a celebrity, yet ignorant of the insufficiency of his bottom-line accomplishments that preclude him from ever joining the dozen or so true elites in pro football's coaching annuls.

Parcells is a motivator and leader of men, and a flashy one at that. If you like cutting repartee with the press, clever manipulations intended to extract the most from his 53-man rosters, and the heroics of molding the downtrodden into winners, the man they call the Tuna surely had it all.

To many, Parcells was more than just a charismatic coach and shrewd grocery shopper. He was messianic, the only mortal capable of converting Giants fans into Cowboys fans, or Patriots into Jets. People followed him anywhere. But cut away the General Patton façade and the iconic sound bites and you're left with a coach that averaged a pedestrian 9-7 record each year. Of the 30 others who've coached 200 or more NFL games, 16 have better winning percentages. That comes with the turf when you take on rebuilding projects, but he also exited before his quick fixes ran their course, so it goes both ways.

He's won two championships. So have 14 others. Another 10 have won three or more. Sure, he is one of only five coaches to lead two different teams to the Super Bowl, but he quit on the second of those teams when he was most needed and that makes him unique among the pantheon of multiple-champion coaches. The other often-overlooked commonality in this accomplishment were Bill Belichick's defenses, without which Parcells may not have made it to any of his three Super Bowls.

He is also the only coach in league history to lead four different teams into the postseason, a factor owing as much to his wanderlust as his football acumen. Is there much doubt that George Halas or Chuck Noll could have done the same if they had bopped around a little more than, say, never?

With Parcells, it's always been more about superlatives and style points than commitments and championships. He'd just paratroop in, take out the big targets, and call in backup as soon as expectations began to build. Or folks started counting upon him.

Not that he wasn't effective in his initial wave of ground support. He did pull four struggling franchises from the darkness of anonymity into the limelight of relevance. The teams he inherited won three games on average in the season before he came to town. By his second year, they averaged nine wins. And he did take all four to the promised land, making him a regular Gridiron Moses.

Parcells could always buy low and sell high. And while that may make him a great stockbroker, we've been too quick to presume it made him a great coach.

Monikered as Not For Long, the NFL has always been a market that seeks equilibrium. It won't let you stay up too long, and it won't keep you down. Where else could a Giants team mired in mediocrity but quarterbacked by Phil Simms and stocked with a newly-drafted Lawrence Taylor have gone but up, regardless of Ray Perkins' successor? How about a 1-win Jets team or a 2-win Patriots team once they rid themselves of Rich Kotite and Dick MacPherson, respectively? With nothing but high draft positions and upside, Parcells bought in. Then so did we.

By understanding the natural predisposition to equilibrium, he was less a stockbroker and more an arbitrager who capitalized on market inefficiencies. That built him a reputation larger than the bricks and mortar his stat sheet would warrant. It made him a hero, and we love our heroes.

America formulates opinion based on personal likes and dislikes. JFK was young and handsome, Ronald Reagan a movie star, and Bill Clinton a smooth talker, so theirs became the seminal presidencies of the last 50 years despite our introduction to budget deficits, trickle-down tax breaks for the rich, and new uses for cigars. Alex Rodriguez is a stark, impersonal PED user so he should be suspended for 211 games, but Manny Ramirez was an affable PED user with great dreadlocks, and it was bad for baseball when he had to sit out 50 games.

Football is a microcosm of that culture. Belichick is cold, impassionate, and arrogant, and that helps in discounting his three championships with an illegal seven-minute film clip taken in the first week of an entirely different season. On the other hand, the Tuna is warm, humanistic, and witty, the greatest coach in modern football.

Parcells took Camelot out of Washington and spread it coast-to-coast.

And our opinions are hard to change, even in the face of empirical evidence to the contrary. If we hate you, we're going to keep up the hate despite a lifetime of good. If we do come to like you, it will only be when you're gone. Yet our love is unconditional through all your faults, your bad calls from the sidelines, your failure to keep trained backups at key positions. Through all your lack of loyalty and commitment to our team, to our city, to our cause.

So hold those Parcellian coattails high, football fans. And while you're at it, better hoist up your own trousers, too. You've got to step through a lot when you follow an icon like the beloved Tuna.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 6:12 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 21

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson started from the pole at Pocono but found trouble on lap 76 when he cut a tire and hit the wall. Despite the damage, he finished 13th and actually increased his lead in the points standings to 77 over Clint Bowyer.

"I've got a lot of empathy for that tire," Johnson said, "because we both 'blow' victories."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth posted a disappointing 22nd in the GoBowling.com 400 after his No. 20 Husky Chevy was collected in a lap one wreck involving Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Juan Montoya. Kenseth dropped one spot in the points standings to seventh, 134 out of first.

"What do you call drivers who cause a wreck on lap one of the GoBowling.com 400?" Kenseth said. "Pinheads."

3. Kasey Kahne — Kahne zoomed past Jeff Gordon with two laps to go to win the GoBowling.com 400 at Pocono, his second win of the year. Kahne solidified his Chase For the Cup standing and is now eighth in the Sprint Cup points standings, 160 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Those restarts were nerve-racking," Kahne said. "As one would expect in the GoBowling.com 400, I was on pins and needles.

"What a run by the No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet. It insured victory, and was at a premium. The pit crew made all the right adjustments. As a result, we had the field covered."

4. Kyle Busch — Busch was the top Toyota finisher at Pocono, finishing eighth for his 12th top-10 finish of the year. He is seventh in the points standings, 130 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Normally," Busch said, "you can find a Toyota in the top five. Not on Sunday. There were no cars from Japanese automakers there. In other words, there was a case of 'Oriental hooky' at Pocono."

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt led two laps and finished fifth at Pocono, posting his fifth top-five result of the year. He is fifth in the points standings, 116 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Pocono Raceway is in the vicinity of Pennsylvania Dutch country," Earnhardt said. "Combine that fact with the smell of a Junior Nation tent after three days in the infield and you've got yourself a 'dutch oven.'"

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer remained winless on the year with a 14th at Pocono as Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Martin Truex, Jr. finished close behind in 15th. Bowyer is still second in the point standings and trails Jimmie Johnson by 77.

"I'm still without a win this year," Bowyer said. "That could change this Sunday at the Cheez-It 355 at the Glen. In fact, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a win. If I'm wrong, I'll certainly complain about it. That would make Watkins Glen much like Sonoma — whine and Cheez country."

7. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished 17th at Pocono on a topsy-turvy day for Chase front-runners. After a run of nine consecutive top-10 finishes, Harvick has posted finishes outside the top 15 in the last two weeks.

"How I wish I could have waited until Sunday to announce my departure from Richard Childress Racing," Harvick said. "What better place than the GoBowling.com 400 to announce a 'split.'"

8. Brad Keselowski — After winning the Nationwide Series race in Iowa on Saturday, Keselowski took sixth in the GoBowling.com 400 on Sunday. Last year's Sprint Cup champion holds the 12th spot in the Sprint Cup point standings, four points ahead of Kurt Busch in 13th.

"There are many that don't believe I'll even make the Chase," Keselowski said. "And there are just as many that believe I will. I'm just glad some people are willing to come to my 'defense,' because I may not be."

9. Jeff Gordon — Gordon used a late caution to snatch the lead from Kasey Kahne, but after another late caution, Kahne got past Gordon with two to go to win the GoBowling.com 400. Gordon finished second and moved up one spot to 10th in the point standings.

"Sunday was my 42nd birthday," Gordon said. "I didn't exactly have my birthday wishes come true, but I did get a spanking from Kasey."

10. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished 11th at Pocono, one spot behind Roush Fenway teammate Greg Biffle. Edwards is third in the points standings, 84 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Danica Patrick wrecked Travis Kvapil for the second time in three races," Edwards said. "Let's not go so hard on Danica. She will be a good driver one day. For now, though, she's just an accident waiting to 'happen.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:05 AM | Comments (0)

August 6, 2013

Johnny Manziel, Scandals, and NCAA Hypocrisy

Monday's sports news was dominated by a pair of scandals: Biogenesis suspensions in MLB, and the possibility that the NCAA will suspend reigning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel for selling autographed memorabilia.

I often criticize sports media for its treatment of scandals, but on Monday, most outlets got it right. The Biogenesis suspensions in baseball are a big deal. Performance-enhancing drugs affect the game, and suspensions affect it even more. The Tigers and Rangers lost starters for 50 games apiece, and for Texas in particular it could be the difference between winning the AL West or not, maybe even making the playoffs or not. This isn't just off-field gossip, it's a huge sports story.

Manziel's issue is a little murkier. He's been in the news throughout the offseason, and always for the wrong reasons. It doesn't seem like he's handling celebrity particularly well, and the media is excited about it, ready to turn him into football's version of Lindsay Lohan. But when the NCAA takes notice of your activities, and those activities include making money, all of a sudden there are very serious on-field implications. The biggest star in college football could miss games in 2013, and he potentially could miss a lot of them. This isn't a story sports journalists can ignore.

That is incredibly frustrating. When Manziel is suspected of criminal activity (underage drinking) and abandoning his commitment to youths at the Manning Passing Academy, the NCAA takes no action. When he sends out classless tweets insulting College Station, no action. But when he tries to profit from his talent, it's an abomination.

I'm not suggesting that he should be punished for the other stuff, because it's all pretty venial. But the NCAA's position on amateurism, in the 21st century, is absurd. Rather than reforming its rules to acknowledge modern realities and evolve, the organization doubles down on its insistence that athletes abstain from all forms of capitalism.

Amateurism is a holdover from the 19th and early 20th centuries. For decades, playing sports for money was looked down upon — despised, really. Players and clubs went to comical lengths to hide that money was being exchanged. Today, college football and men's college basketball are billion-dollar businesses. In many states, the coaches of those sports are the highest-paid state employees. Why is it okay for the coach to make millions, and the school tens of millions, but essential that the actual players earn nothing? There's no ethical argument to justify that, only a practical one.

The standard argument is that players are compensated: they receive a free education. You almost never hear this argument from someone who played college sports. I played college football, but at a Division III school, and I was always a backup. It was nothing like the commitment made by a starter from a BCS conference. But I spent more time on football than any of my classes. Practice was three hours a day, but that doesn't include studying the playbook, two-a-days, weight-room sessions, gamedays, or road trips. For a national star like Johnny Manziel, add media commitments and events with fans, alumni, and boosters. Someone like Manziel doesn't have time to commit himself to classes; he's majoring in football.

Big-time college sports make billions of dollars, and the players who facilitate that are expected to take nothing and like it. Not only are their services unpaid, they're forbidden to make money through other avenues, as well. I'm not interested in arguing over whether players should be paid, because there are a hundred headaches and hurdles in the way, but I'm sick of the NCAA's false piety on amateurism. Its member schools don't want the situation to change, because they're making huge profits from an unpaid labor force. There's no principle in play: this is about people and institutions who have money not wanting to share it. Holier-than-thou is always ugly, but never more so than when it masks that kind of hypocrisy and avarice.

It's appropriate that Manziel's possible suspension is a national story, because it's the biggest college football news in months. But it's sad, and an ethical foul ball, that what might finally get Manziel in trouble isn't really wrong, or at least not in a vacuum. If Manziel really did sell memorabilia, that was stupid and selfish, because he knew he could be suspended, but selling memorabilia doesn't hurt anybody; there's nothing inherently bad about it. It's wrong only because the NCAA says it's wrong.

Of all the things Manziel has done this summer, trying to make a little extra money is probably the least odious, yet that's what the NCAA gets fired up about. Serious crimes like DUI and assault are mostly handled by the schools, and usually with a slap on the wrist, but the slightest whiff of capitalism and the NCAA unleashes its indignant fury. No other organization in sports has so wildly misplaced its priorities.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:11 PM | Comments (0)

Monday, Bloody Monday

Two hundred and eleven games. That's the sum total of Alex Rodriguez's suspension, announced Monday, for his involvement on more than one level with the defunct and disgraced Biogenesis operation. Rodriguez is one of 13 players suspended for their Biogenesis connections, but he's the blue whale among the anchovies.

A clueless blue whale at that. Make note of some of his remarks at a Monday press conference, before he suited up for the Yankees (he went 1-for-4 in an 8-0 loss) — as is his right while, yes, he appeals his suspension, the only one of the Biogenesis 13 doing so, thus far — against the White Sox in Chicago following his return at last from the disabled list.

"I'm sure there's been mistakes made along the way. We're here now. I'm a human being. I've had two hip surgeries. I've had two knee surgeries. I'm fighting for my life. ... What we've always fought for was for the process, and I think we have that and at some point we'll sit in front of an arbiter and give our case. ... There's a lot of things that have been thrown to the wall, and I think when the time is right, there will be an opportunity to do all of that."

Anything but an admission that, yes, he had some truck with actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances beyond the 2001-2003 period to which he'd admitted in the recent past. Anything but an apology such as others among the Biogenesis 13 offered in their own statements.

Yes, A-Rod's going to appeal the suspension, maybe with an eye toward bringing it somewhere in the middle of the handed-down 211 and Ryan Braun's 65. But if the appeal process is steered somehow toward addressing A-Rod's involvement with actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances rather than Bud Selig's powers as baseball commissioner, that would be just about perfect.

Selig could have invoked the "best interest of the game" power the office does have to keep Rodriguez off the field even while he appeals the suspension. When Rodriguez popped off over the weekend implying a conspiracy to keep him off the field, prompting an apparent end to any negotiations between himself and baseball government on the terms of his punishment, Selig could have leaned upon reported reams of evidence tying A-Rod to Biogenesis and comparable doings and denied him any appeal process under the aforesaid power.

But Selig would have risked the much-discussed opportunity, opened wide by metastasizing player anger over the PED issue, of steering the next collective bargaining agreement toward a hammer-down in which players tempted to actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances would face real financial disincentive, including the voidings of their incumbent contracts.

So let A-Rod appeal. It's himself who has the most to lose in the process even if he does get the actual suspension cut down. "[I]f he appeals his suspension," Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports) wrote over the weekend. "his transgressions might be leaked faster than you can say, 'Cousin Yuri Surcart.'

"Even worse for A-Rod, baseball could pursue its civil lawsuit against Biogenesis — a judge in Miami-Dade Circuit Court declined to dismiss the suit on Tuesday — allowing attorneys to pursue bank records, cell-phone records and hard drives, all through discovery," Rosenthal continued. "I'm sure A-Rod would come out looking great in all that."

Aside from Rodriguez, baseball and its watchers were sure that, among the Biogenesis 13, only Jhonny Peralta (Tigers, shortstop) and Nelson Cruz (Rangers, outfielder) were known by name to be facing suspension before Monday's announcements, while Gio Gonzalez (Nationals, pitcher) would be or had been cleared of any wrongdoing.

The 10 others suspended over the defunct Florida anti-aging clinic: pitchers Antonio Bastardo (Phillies), Sergio Escalona (Astros minor leagues), Faustos de los Santos (free agent), and Jordan Norberto (free agent); catchers Francisco Cervelli (Yankees) and Jesus Montero (Mariners); infielder Everth Cabrera (Padres); and outfielders Cesar Puello (Mets minor leagues) and Jordany Valdespin (Mets minor leagues).

For Peralta and Cruz, the suspensions impact beyond their own selves considering the Tigers and the Rangers are still postseason contenders, while Peralta, Cruz, and Cabrera were all-stars this season. Cabrera didn't appear in the game but Cruz (spelling Jose Bautista for the sixth inning and going 1-for-2) and Peralta (pinch hitting for J.J. Hardy with a base hit in the eighth) did.

Both Peralta and Cruz issued statements of apology when their suspensions were announced. "I take full responsibility for my actions, have no excuses for my lapse in judgment and I accept my suspension," said Peralta in his. "I love the fans, my teammates and this organization, and my greatest punishment is knowing that I have let so many good people down."

He won't get any support from Tiger legend Denny McLain, who's zapped him for declining to appeal. "I would love to see him hang in there for the ballclub's sake," baseball's last 30-game winner told the Detroit Free Press. "He is more concerned with next year, starting clean, rather than helping the club this year. Everything's about him. It's not about the team. It's not about the playoffs. It's not about the World Series. It's pure selfishness.

"All he wanted to do was put himself in position to get a multiyear contract for an awful lot of money," the former right-hander continued. "It clearly shows it's all about him and nobody else. He might be a great kid and everything, but somehow or other, he took the wrong turn. Listen, everybody can take the wrong turn from time to time." McLain — he whose baseball life including bookmaking and whose life since baseball has included drug and embezzlement convictions and bankruptcy — knows perhaps too much about wrong turns.

Cruz's statement included an acknowledgement of what provoked him to try a Biogenesis cocktail in the first place, a gastrointestinal infection that shrank him 40 pounds worth in early 2012 by the time he was diagnosed properly, a weight loss that had him fearful he wouldn't be able to play.

"Faced with [that] situation, I made an error in judgment that I deeply regret, and I accept full responsibility for that error," said the right fielder, who'd gone from 2011 World Series hero (8 homers through Game 6, including a walk-off grand slam; a would-be 9th stolen back by Cardinals outfielder Allen Craig in Game 7) to goat (unable to stop David Freese's down-to-the-last-strike Game 6-tying drive off the right field wall, playing in a no-doubles defense) in one extra-innings swoop.

"I should have handled the situation differently, and my illness was no excuse," Cruz continued. "I am thankful for the unwavering support of my family, friends, and teammates during this difficult time. I look forward to regaining the trust and respect of the Rangers organization, my teammates, and the great Rangers' fans, and I am grateful for the opportunity to rejoin the team for the playoffs."

Gonzalez and Danny Valencia (Orioles) were cleared. Melky Cabrera (now a Blue Jays outfielder) and Bartolo Colon (Athletics pitcher), both of whom served suspensions last season over synthetic testosterone likely obtained through Biogenesis, with Cabrera's costing him a spot on the Giants' World Series winning postseason roster and the chance to re-sign with the team, won't be disciplined in the current round.

Valdespin was a close acquaintance to controversy even before he turned up tied to Biogenesis. Before the Mets sent him back to the minors with a .188 batting average last month, Valdespin's season began with the wrong hit—a Justin Verlander fastball catching him in the cup-less crotch in spring training.

In May, Valdespin showboated wildly enough when hitting a long home run in a game against the Pirates in which the Mets were light years behind, then tried to duck the next day's lineup because he figured he'd see a brushback pitch. No Met pitcher even thought of dusting a Pirate hitter as payback. Manager Terry Collins, no fool, forced Valdespin into the lineup. Sure enough, he got one. Then he exploded in the clubhouse.

When Valdespin was sent down in July, reports indicated his parting shots included calling Collins a vulgar euphemism for fellatio. Last week, he got himself suspended for instigating a brawl between his Las Vegas 51s and the Sacramento River Cats: his showboating on a 3-run homer got him drilled his next time up, and when a teammate plunked a River Cat in reply, the benches cleared.

Valdespin had a reputation for trouble even before he made the Mets last year and this. He'd been suspended numerous times while in the Mets system since 2007. For insubordination.

Valdespin and Puello have something else in common. They're two of eight players on today's hit parade represented by ACES, Inc., including Cruz — whom the Newark Star-Ledger says left the agency Monday as well. The agency also represents Melky Cabrera.

Last September, a former ACES client — one time Dodgers and Mets catcher Paul Lo Duca, who was named in the Mitchell Report a few years ago, charged that the agency and its heads, Seth and Sam Levinson, introduced him to Kirk Radomski, the one-time Met clubhouse man who steered several players named in the Mitchell Report to actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances during the 1990s and perhaps after he left the Mets circa 1995.

None of which mitigates Alex Rodriguez, or offers him any feasible chance to hide behind the saw that he's hardly the only such creature who swam willingly into poisoned seas. He's merely, to repeat, the blue whale among the anchovies. A blue whale who had, apparently, so pathological a need for respect and affection that he forgot to include the most important factor in gaining both into the formula. Accountability.

That kind of forgetfulness has made him a pariah as often as a power in the Yankee clubhouse, which has never really felt completely at ease with him. Now, as he plays on while appealing his suspension, he and his team will learn how much he has left in his baseball tank, without taint, unless he's fool enough to do something else out of bounds even with Biogenesis clinging to his back.

Now, in other words, A-Rod's going to confront accountability from more than one angle. The anchovies aren't the only ones waiting to see how he accounts for that.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:41 PM | Comments (0)

August 5, 2013

Beefing Up Schedules

It was a packed house at the Wynfrey Hotel in Birmingham, listening to SEC Commissioner Mike Slive talk about basketball.

Sounds a bit odd, right?

Slive's "State of the Conference" message was direct and to the point. He lauded the successes of his conference. He blasted the NCAA for their faults. And, when it came to college hoops, he admitted the giant failure of a season the SEC had last year.

Slive has always been quick to change the status quo when he felt it needed a shake-up. And, in the middle of college football's biggest preseason showcase, he announced that the SEC, the kings of the gridiron, are determined to show basketball strength, as well. His plan for action? Hire Greg Shaheen to check and approve non-conference slates. While this wouldn't fly in the ACC, SEC institutions are now at the mercy of the conference to approve the out-of-conference schedules they play.

So, who should we see playing in some non-season matchups? Assuming that these will be a home-home series, here's some that could stand out as intriguing December showdowns...

Florida vs. Miami — It's only fitting. The old, established basketball kings of the Sunshine State take on the defending ACC champions. Donovan vs. Larranaga in a battle of basketball wits. Other than Florida State fans, who is not going to want to watch this?

Kentucky vs. Robert Morris — Kentucky plays enough marquee opponents that they don't need to add any more to their schedule. What they do need though is a tough mid-major that will provide an immediate test to their freshman talent. Do they form as a team and win as expected? Or do egos prevail and the team folds? This rematch is a good barometer for John Calipari and needs to happen.

Missouri vs. Kansas — One can only hope...

Missouri vs. St. Louis — More likely to happen and great for basketball if it does. The second year SEC program takes on the A-10 power. A contrast of styles between Frank Haith and Jim Crews in a Show-Me State showdown. There's lots of intrigue to be found here.

Arkansas vs. Wichita State — Hogs play a few marquee teams each year. They need a strong mid-major on their slate. If Missouri State or Tulsa ever find resurgence, they can be added onto this list. Right now, though, this would be interesting. A program with lots of tradition, trying to find their way back up to national prominence taking on a team who reached the Final Four last season and is solidifying their role as the mid-major power of the Plains. Good stuff.

Alabama vs. Notre Dame — Why not? The Tide barely missed out on the Big Dance last year, with losses to Mercer and Tulane hurting their chances. Let the two football powers duke it out on the hardwood. They play some decent hoops as well.

Texas A&M vs. Maryland — Mark Turgeon's old team takes on his current squad. Texas A&M completed their SEC transition; Maryland is ready to start theirs into the Big Ten. This could be more interesting than most people think.

South Carolina vs. Kansas State — Frank Martin's old team vs. his current team. If it's in Manhattan, the Octagon of Doom would be rocking. If it's in Columbia, it'll still be entertaining as Martin and Bruce Weber would be a pretty good battle of basketball wits.

Vanderbilt vs. Georgetown — The battle between two private schools whose teams scored under 40 points in at least one game last season. In Vandy's case, more than once. Ugly basketball, but looks good on paper.

And, if Marshall Henderson was playing, Ole Miss vs. Memphis would be a welcome restart to a regional rivalry. However, without Henderson, that's a game that loses a significant amount of its luster.

Needless to say, the opportunities are there for good, solid non-conference games. It's something the SEC should embrace; after all one loss to a really good team isn't going to cost you a berth in the NCAA Tournament. What can cost you is a season of wins against a lot of cupcakes. There has to be some backbone to a winning season. Now Greg Shaheen will ensure Slive's orders are met.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 3:42 PM | Comments (0)

August 2, 2013

A-Rod's Fate May Provide Once-Unlikely Opportunities

By now, of course, it's not a question of "if" but "when" the hammer drops on Alex Rodriguez. But it is a question of just what the hammer's head will be made of that keeps observers and analysts guessing and examining A-Rod's, and baseball's, pending fate.

I say baseball's pending fate because of what has washed ashore since Ryan Braun finally took the plunge we now know he had little choice but to take. Little by little, but with a force you'd never have suspected a decade and a half ago, the issue of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances has a very different reception among those playing the game now. And it's providing baseball government with a very interesting opportunity for resolution in the next labor agreement.

Last week, I wrote elsewhere of Bob Costas (also known as the Man Who Wouldn't Be Commissioner, alas) suggesting the Major League Baseball Players Association might be able to place two propositions on the table when the agreement comes up for renegotiation: 1) an automatic 50-game suspension plus denial of honors and awards for particular periods or the remainder of a player's career, if caught using or procuring actual or alleged PEDs; and, 2) a lifetime banishment from baseball on the second such offense.

This week, ESPN's Buster Olney sees and raises Costas. He focuses on the player's union's swelling rage over Braun and Rodriguez and, we'll allow, any other players who may be facing suspensions regarding the Biogenesis case. And he thinks Bud Selig, on whose watch the issue first exploded but who flipped a switch and became front and center in trying to clean up the mess, never mind that he looked as though he were scrambling to clean up a mess he abetted, can use that swelling rage to take the no-questions-asked higher ground.

It comes this way: A-Rod is cooked. He faces either a 100+ game suspension or, if he declines a deal in which he'll serve some suspended time, a lifetime banishment. He can appeal at once, allowing him to stay on the field (assuming his body cooperates) during the appeal process. That, Olney says, would secure due process, necessary not to alienate the players or their union, no matter how strongly they feel about Braun, A-Rod, and apparently all dancing with or around actual or alleged PEDs, and "allow Selig to ... go to the union, with all the evidence against Braun and Rodriguez in hand, and say the following:

"Fellas, look: I know you're not happy with Braun's suspension, and damn it, neither am I. We wanted more. We want to go after the cheaters with more ammunition. We want to be more aggressive. We think Alex Rodriguez cheated all of you; we think he lied to all of you; we think he tried to make a mockery of our drug-testing system. He thumbed his nose at it and exploited the loopholes.

"Let's close those loopholes. Let's make this better. Let's talk about lifetime bans for egregious second or even first offenders, rather than three-strikes-and-you're-out. Let's eliminate the incentive to cheat: Let's talk about voiding contracts under certain circumstances. (Emphasis added.)

"You guys don't like players like Braun and Rodriguez, and neither do we. Let's go after them."

"If Selig uses this measured approach," Olney continues, "he will put more subtle pressure on the union to act, to put muscle behind those recent words we've heard from so many players. And I think the players will be happy to go along. This is a situation ripe for Selig to exploit because Rodriguez is so unlikable."

That's more or less what I said writing of the Costas disincentive plan last week: "The Players Association and the owners could agree to install a clause into the standard major league baseball player's contract rendering the remainder of the contract null and void if a player is caught and suspended for using or procuring actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances as defined under the game's drug policy. Sometimes, when all else doesn't do the trick, a belt in the bank account ought to suffice."

I wasn't alone. From what I can determine, at least three players have gone on the record as suggesting outright or by implication that the contract-voiding wedge should be used: pitchers Max Scherzer (Tigers, who thinks the PED fight needs to go to "the financial incentive") and Zack Greinke (Dodgers, who tore former teammate Braun a new one last week) and outfielder Skip Schumaker (Dodgers, who thinks Braun should have been barred for life — after returning his 2011 MVP in favor of Matt Kemp).

The Yankees would probably love to see nothing better than a way to rid themselves of what's become a franchise albatross. Say what you will about the Empire Emeritus, but even the Yankees have their tolerance limits. This was the organization that actively sought a way to void Jason Giambi's contract after Giambi admitted to trying actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances and apologized for it without being extremely specific.

Giambi, you may recall, testified in the BALCO grand jury probe to using actual or alleged PEDs in 2001 and 2003, which the San Francisco Chronicle revealed before the 2005 season, prompting his public apology and call for other such players to do likewise. (Perhaps tellingly, Giambi never experienced a particular statistical bump while he did use, which doesn't acquit him, of course.) Long since clean, Giambi this week did pass Hank Aaron in one way: he's now the oldest man (by a few days) to hit a walkoff home run in a regular season game. (He did it as a pinch-hitter, yet.)

"With the help of his own representation, answers to difficult questions were crafted in such a way that [Giambi] could steer around open admission of steroid use — to protect the money that he had earned and that he would earn in the future — while still responding, sort of," Olney observed earlier this week. "The statement that Braun issued last week was designed the same way."

The sand continues to pour through the hourglass neck on Alex Rodriguez. The opportunities, depending upon A-Rod's ultimate fate and action about it (or lack thereof), abound likewise. Though, in fairness, there's one such opportunity that may not be a happy thought in one American League city.

Losing Rodriguez actually may not be in the best interest of the Orioles, with manager Buck Showalter crustily reminding ESPN that Rodriguez being suspended for what would include all of 2014 would relieve the Yankees from paying his $24 million salary for the season — bringing the Yankees under luxury tax and revenue-sharing thresholds and enabling them to spend freely enough between co-owner Hal Steinbrenner's luxury tax threshold goals.

That, Showalter says, means — he guarantees it — that Oriole catcher Matt Weiters is going to be a Yankee by 2015. And this may not be the only team in the Show having comparable concerns. Perhaps Selig's phone's been burning up alive over the PED matters furiously enough since the Braun suspension. This kind of wire fire he doesn't need.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 3:12 PM | Comments (0)

August 1, 2013

Highlights of College Football's Opening Weekend

With the college football season set to kick off in a little more than a month, many fans and nearly every preseason publication likes to peruse through the schedule to see what the most intriguing, compelling, or critical matchups might be. Of course there always are the major conference clashes like the big rivalry games near the end of the year and those interdivision battles that foretell of possible rematches in conference title games, and there are the handful of "games of the year/decade/century" that occasionally dot the non-conference slate.

So, in keeping with the spirit of tradition, I propose to you the top six games (in no particular order) to keep an eye on during the first weekend of action.

Boise State @ Washington

This game actually has more on the line for the Huskies than the Broncos. Husky fans most certainly remember the heartbreaking 28-26 loss to Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl last season, and the Dawgs have shown marked improvement over the past couple of seasons. Opening 2013 with a win over the Pac-12's biggest nemesis will not only give the team a boost heading into the next game in Chicago against Illinois, but could also be an indicator of what type of team UW will actually be. Picked by most pundits to finish in the middle of the Pac-12 North, a convincing win over another great Boise State team would put the rest of the division on notice that they'd better watch out for the Purple and Gold.

Meanwhile, another season of high expectations for the Broncos could start in bitter disappointment with a loss in Seattle. Granted, a loss on the road against a tougher conference opponent, even if it's a middle-of-the-road contender, is nothing that can't be recovered from. After losing last year's season-opener to Michigan State, Boise State still ended the season at 11-2, so dropping this one to UW would not be the end of the world.

Georgia @ Clemson

This matchup is arguably the most high-powered one of the season's first tilts. Georgia is picked by just about everyone to win the SEC East, while Clemson has the same expectations put upon them in the ACC Atlantic. Georgia is ranked slightly ahead of Clemson in just about every major publication, but the Tigers have home field advantage, having lost only once in Memorial Stadium in the past two seasons. The Bulldogs, however, could argue that they have history on their side.

The last time these two teams met was in Clemson back in 2003, and the Dawgs romped to a 30-0 victory. But that was 10 years ago, and this isn't the same Clemson team as back then.

What this game will prove is that the winner will have a great shot at landing fairly high in the BCS standings once they come out in October, of course providing there isn't a hiccup along the way. With that in mind, this game will most likely mean more to Georgia than Clemson since the Bulldogs will have South Carolina and LSU to contend with before the eighth week of the season (first BCS rankings), while the Tigers don't have any real tests until Florida State on that eighth week.

North Carolina @ South Carolina

Speaking of the aforementioned Gamecocks, they haven't met their namesake rivals to the north since 2007 when they won by a mere six points. The Tar Heels have been a consistently good team over the past few years, but were disappointed in missing a bowl game last season despite finishing 8-4. North Carolina is predicted to finish behind Florida State in the ACC Coastal division, while South Carolina is expected to end up right behind Georgia in the SEC East.

Now the Gamecocks are ranked way above the Tar Heels in the preseason publications, but a good showing by the Chapel Hill bunch — or even an upset win — would put the rest of the ACC on notice that they're ready to play. Just as with the rest of these high-profile matchups, more rests in the balance for South Carolina than their opponents.

After this tilt, the Garnet and Black head to Athens to take on Georgia in what could amount to the SEC East division championship and an upper hand in the always SEC-crowded BCS. Going into that game off of a win would be a big boost for USC, and depending on what happens with Georgia against Clemson, they might be facing a Bulldog team licking its wounds.

TCU vs. LSU (Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas)

The Tigers are six years removed from their last BCS championship and it's been two years since they lost the rematch to hated rival Alabama in the national title game. So getting off on the right foot against a TCU team that might not be as good as it has been in recent years is critical to gathering early momentum before heading into the buzz-saw that is the SEC. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are hoping to assert themselves as a legitimate Big 12 team after faltering in their inaugural season. Coming away with a win over an SEC power would do wonders for their confidence.

The last time LSU played a non-conference game in Cowboys Stadium they manhandled a pretty good Oregon team in what amounted to a home game for the Tigers. This time, though, they're facing a TCU team with a lot to prove and that's just a stone's throw away from their campus. Whether or not the crowd will be decidedly in TCU's favor might not be a factor in this game, but getting them on their side early on might be an advantage.

Again, like with the other closely matched nonconference games, much hangs in the balance for both teams. A Tiger loss will have them plenty fizzed heading home for three marginally easy games before traveling to Georgia, while a TCU win would give them a huge confidence boost also going into three winnable games before hitting the road to Oklahoma.

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama (Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia)

College football fans can look at this game in one of two ways: either it will be yawn, "Another Alabama blowout is on tap," or "OKay, so how good will this year's Tide team be?" On the flip side, Virginia Tech fans could have similar thoughts toward their team. "Are we going to be underachievers yet again, or will we actually live up to expectations and win a title?" A lot will be decided by this game, whether or not Alabama is still the juggernaut that everyone says they are (and on paper, there's no reason to doubt they won't be), or whether or not VaTech is ready to take the reins in the ACC and make some noise in the BCS.

But, just like two years ago when 'Bama lost to LSU in the regular season and then got a rematch with the Tigers in the BCS title game, shutting them out, a loss by the Tide to the Hokies won't necessarily dash their hoped for a three-peat. What it could do, however, is give the rest of the SEC (and maybe the entire college football universe) hope that someone other than a team from Tuscaloosa has a shot at winning the championship.

Washington State @ Auburn

I know, you're all thinking, "How can this game be of any significance in comparison with those other games you mentioned?" Okay, so it's not exactly a matchup of national prominence or even importance, but to both of these programs, it could be a pivotal turning point in an upward direction, or it could signal yet another dismal season for a once-proud program. I'll give you the argument that WSU has never been on the level of Auburn (yes, I remember that the Tigers have a couple of national championship trophies in their possession), but this was a program that had set the record for consecutive 10-win seasons just a decade ago.

If the Cougs go to Auburn and get their proverbial tails handed to them, it could mark a quick demise for the Mike Leach era in Pullman. But if they come away with a win, then all the talk of a much-improved team might actually be true and WSU could be the 6-6 team that everyone is dreaming about. Auburn, meanwhile, is under pressure from its fans to not dare to lose a home game to a patsy like Washington State. If the Tigers can win convincingly against a Cougar team that promises to be better than in recent memory, it could give them a much-needed confidence boost under a new head coach in spite of recent struggles. Auburn fans will take hope that their team is back on the SEC map.

Sure, there a few other interesting intersectional games on the schedule, including Syracuse at Penn State, Florida State at Pittsburgh, BYU at Virginia, and Purdue at Cincinnati, but the previously mentioned half-dozen games are the ones that I'll be watching with much interest. After all, the outcomes of these matchups could very well form the landscape of the 2013 college football season.

Posted by Adam Russell at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)