Sports Central | Articles and Columns

« June 2013 | Main | August 2013 »

July 31, 2013

New CBA Hasn't Killed Free Agents ... Yet

During the NHL lockout of 2012-13, pundits worried that greater salary cap restrictions would create greater individual salary disparity between the haves and have-nots. Theoretically, this would squeeze out the NHL's middle class — more dollars would be assigned to top-tier free agents, leaving precious few salary cap dollars available, meaning that teams would have to use low-paid journeymen, young players, and AHL callups to fill in crucial support roles.

However, one year into free agency, it appears this hasn't happened. In fact, if anything, the middle class appears to be the group that's getting more money. A significant contributor to this has been the new CBA's lowering of the salary cap from $70 million (pro-rated for a shortened season) to $64.3 million.

When the doors opened on NHL free agency in early June, middle-class players received some startling offers. Consider the comparables between the upcoming 2013-14 season and the 2009-10 numbers. In 2009-10, the salary cap was at $56.8 million, and $4.75 million usually got you a two-way forward capable of 20-30 goals and 30-40 assists (e.g. Patrice Bergeron).

This past July, $4.85 million per season brought Ryane Clowe to the New Jersey Devils (40 GP, 3 G, 16 A). $5 million per season brought Val Flippula to the Tampa Bay Lightning (41 GP, 9 G, 8 A), and $4 million per season brought Derek Roy to the St. Louis Blues (42 GP, 7 G, 21 A).

These are examples of players being paid at the same salary tier if you went by their best-of stats, not what they did over the last year or two. When you look at the big picture, this first year of free agency under the new CBA hasn't actually changed things that much. You can point out specific outliers, but the middle class still got its money; it's just that the quality of middle-class player has started to cost more.

In 2009-10, the top 25 player salaries ranged from $9.5 million to $6.6 million. As of July 2013, the top 25 player salaries for the upcoming season ranged from $9.5 million to $6.8 million. GMs are still respecting the self-imposed limits of top-tier players, and no player has eclipsed Alex Ovechkin's contract.

Perhaps GMs are hedging their bets after seeing disaster big-money deals require gigantic buyouts. Vincent Lecavalier, Ilya Bryzgalov, and Danny Briere all earned too much per-year money and term for their situations, and their respective teams wrote big checks to get away from their contracts. So the difference, at least for this past free agency period, is a group of mid-tier players that got paid based on hope and justifications using past stats, not current stats. The rich stayed the same level of rich while everyone else seemed to get a raise.

Of course, the big test remains the next few offseasons as the NHL salary cap starts rising again. GMs may continue to feel that higher-quality depth is a better model than a top-heavy roster. Since GMs are constantly in copycat mode, the recent Stanley Cups by the Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings, and Boston Bruins showcase this in different forms, as all three teams attacked in waves rather than a specific focus on just the top line. Should the next Stanley Cup champion be a team with top stars, cheap role players, and no middle class, then there's a good chance that the predictions during the lockout will start to come true.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:28 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 20

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson controlled the Brickyard 400 until a slow pit stop late in the race likely cost him any chance at the win. He finished second behind Ryan Newman and still maintained a healthy led in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"I'm certainly disappointed in the last pit stop," Johnson said. "But what can you do, short of reciting the Lowe's motto to my pit crew and tell them to 'Never stop improving.'

"They call me '5-Time.' I used to think that was because of my five titles. Now I think it's because I've lost a race I should have won five times this year."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished fifth in the Brickyard 400, posting his fifth top-five result of the year. He is sixth in the point standings, 120 out of first.

"I'm thrilled with the result," Kenseth said. "After a shaky start to the season, the No. 20 Toyota engines have been quite reliable. This was the 20th running of the Brickyard 400, and I'm happy my 20 was still running."

3. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer led a lap late on Sunday but had to pit for fuel, resulting in a 20th in the Brickyard 400. He remained second in the point standings, 75 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I'm still searching for my first win," Bowyer said, "and I'll do anything to win. That includes sitting on a cushion of hundreds of bottles of 5-Hour Energy at Pocono this Sunday. Maybe a 'booster seat' is exactly what I need to win."

4. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished a disappointing 19th at Indianapolis, falling victim to fuel mileage that forced a late pit stop for a splash of gas. He remained fourth in the point standings and trails Jimmie Johnson by 92.

"That may have been the most uneventful race in NASCAR history," Harvick said. "We may only visit Indianapolis once a year, but this race sure was 'common place.'"

5. Carl Edwards — Edwards came home 13th at Indianapolis, recording the top finish for Roush Fenway Racing. He is now third in the Sprint Cup point standings, 85 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Johnson has run away with the points lead," Edwards said. "A lot of people call me 'Cousin Carl.' Not Jimmie; he calls me 'Distant Third Cousin Carl.'"

6. Kyle Busch — One day after winning the Nationwide Indiana 250 on Saturday, Busch finished 10th in the Brickyard 400 for his 12th top-10 Sprint Cup of the year. He is seventh in the point standings, 130 out of first.

"Ryan Newman certainly made his presence known at Indianapolis," Busch said. "You could say the Brickyard 400 was a lot like Juan Montoya's head — Newman put his 'stamp' on it."

"NASCAR has suspended the use of aerial cameras. And speaking of faulty things in high places, Brian France is still the chairman of NASCAR."

7. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished third at the Brickyard as Stewart-Haas teammate Ryan Newman captured his first win of the year. Stewart currently holds one of the wild card spots in the Chase For the Cup standings.

"What a win by Ryan," Stewart said. "As drivers with no necks go, he stands head and shoulders above the rest. If I didn't know better, I'd say Ryan's earned his keep. It's too bad I can't keep him."

8. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished third at Indianapolis, one spot behind Hendrick teammate Jimmie Johnson, who was searching for his fifth Brickyard win. Kahne is ninth in the point standings, 176 out of first.

"The race was Jimmie's until that fateful final pit stop," Kahne said. "If Kevin Harvick is the 'Closer,' then Jimmie must be the 'Opener,' because he's left more doors open than Bruton Smith's butler."

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished sixth at Indianapolis as Hendrick Motorsports took three of the top six spots at the Brickyard. Earnhardt is fifth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 124 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Jimmie let another win slip through his fingers," Earnhardt said. "That's bad for Jimmie, but perfect for a promotional tie-in with Lowe's. Whenever Jimmie loses a race he should have won, customers can expect 'giveaways' at their local Lowe's home improvement stores.

"I'm still looking for sponsors for the last 12 races this season. Usually, it's not hard to find people willing to pay for my name or image — they're Junior fans in a tattoo parlor."

10. Ryan Newman — With a speedy two-tire pit stop with 30 laps to go, Newman took the lead and held on the win the Brickyard 400. Starting on the pole, Newman won a race-long battle with Jimmie Johnson, who suffered a slow final pit stop that may have cost him the lead.

"This was a timely win," Newman said. "I'm an Indiana native who had gone 49 races without a win, so I wanted it badly, and so did my home fans. Before the race, you could have said, 'This native's restless.'"

"Does Tony Stewart regret letting me go from Stewart-Hass Racing? Maybe. I don't fault Tony. It was a business decision, one that an owner like Tony has to make sometimes. It's like they say, 'Where there's Smoke, there's fired.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:55 AM | Comments (0)

July 30, 2013

Jennie Finch, Eddie Feigner, and Softball vs. Baseball

It's often said that the best hitters in baseball still make an out 60% of the time. But batters have an even tougher job in baseball's cousin, softball. Pitchers dominate softball, to the extent that the best of them are nearly unhittable.

Sports Illustrated recently ran an excerpt from David Epstein's new book The Sports Gene. The piece is fascinating, and if you haven't read it yet, I'd encourage you to do so. As a striking example of a larger point, Epstein writes about the success of softball pitcher Jennie Finch against major league hitters like Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds.

At the University of Arizona, Finch won an NCAA-record 60 straight games, including a 32-0 record and 0.54 ERA as a junior. Her stats from the U.S. National Team are even better, with 397 strikeouts against 36 walks (11:1 K-to-BB) and a 0.42 ERA. Throughout her career, Finch was close to unhittable, whether facing the best softball players in the world or the best major league hitters. No one could touch her.

But Finch is not the best softball pitcher ever. Eddie Feigner is.

Feigner was a showman, so it's tough to evaluate him objectively. Can you overlook the glitz and gimmicks to judge him as a legitimate sportsman? On the other hand, can you avoid being swayed by remarkable (and seemingly ridiculous) feats to keep his accomplishments in context? The Harlem Globetrotters do amazing things, but the show doesn't make them better than the guys in the NBA who play it straight. Feigner's performances had more than a little bit of Globetrotting to them.

Born in 1925, Feigner was a successful softball pitcher by age 16. He came into his own in 1946, when Feigner took the field as "The King and His Court" — Feigner (The King) backed by only a catcher, a shortstop, and a first baseman. Epstein wrote that when Jennie Finch took the mound against Mike Piazza, Aaron Boone took off his glove and lay down, while Hank Blalock left the field for a drink of water. That was The King and His Court, and Feigner played that way for over 50 years, retiring only after a stroke at age 75.

In addition to the sparse defense, Feigner would often pitch from unusual positions: behind his back, between his legs, on his knees. Sometimes he simply abandoned the pitching mound, backing up to second base or even center field. He appeared on "The Tonight Show" and pitched blindfolded to Johnny Carson. Perhaps it's hard to take such a man seriously, but ESPN's Gare Joyce wrote that Feigner was more than a gimmick: "For all the entertainment, he amazed more than he amused." Sports Illustrated called Feigner the most underrated athlete of his time. The King retired with over 8,000 victories, 900 no-hitters, and 200 perfect games.

As you might expect from a man who dubbed himself The King, Feigner was far from modest: "I have perfect control. I throw the best changeup there ever was. I throw other pitches nobody can. My in-drop and in-raise are superpitches and unique ... Who else pitches blindfolded? Who else pitches from second base? I used to throw strikes from center field." He goes on like this at great length, but there's substance behind the boasting. Feigner's fastball was clocked at 104 mph. When the mound is only 46 feet from home plate, that is unhittable. A baseball mound is 60' 6" from home, and 95-mph fastballs are considered blazing. Take away 1/4 of the hitter's reaction time and give the pitch an extra 10% or so in velocity, and that's Feigner's fastball. Yet he bragged more about his off-speed and breaking pitches than the heater, and his control really was legendary — even with a blindfold, or pitching from the outfield.

In 1967, when Feigner was a month shy of his 42nd birthday, he appeared in a softball exhibition against a major-league all-star team. He struck out Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Maury Wills, Harmon Killebrew, Roberto Clemente, and Brooks Robinson consecutively; the exact order of the batters varies depending on your source, but everyone agrees that he struck out all six in a row.

On an old episode of Sport Science, they estimated Jennie Finch's fastball at 70 mph. Jennie's pitching baffled top-tier major leaguers, and Feigner threw about 50% harder. If she baffled Bonds and Pujols, what did Feigner's pitches do to the likes of Mays and Clemente?

The "debate" over whether it is more difficult to hit a baseball or a softball is a canard. A softball mound is substantially closer than in baseball, and allowing for that difference, it is much harder to hit a softball. This is easily demonstrable: in fast-pitch softball, batting averages and ERAs are lower than in baseball. This isn't something you can disagree with; it's a fact: it is harder to hit a softball. But Feigner often pitched from farther than 43 feet. He routinely pitched from second base, and occasionally from the outfield. He almost always pitched on no rest, barnstorming on consecutive days and sometimes doing double-headers or even triple-headers. With typical modesty, Feigner proclaimed in 1972 that with three days rest, he wouldn't have lost 10 games. His accomplishments suggest that might be true.

I first read about Eddie Feigner when I was a kid, in The Giant Book of Strange But True Sports Stories, and I was enthralled. A softball pitcher who threw 104? Who only needed three teammates? Feigner was a quiet superstar. Softball has never been a highly visible sport, and men's fast-pitch softball is virtually extinct. But among those who knew of The King and His Court, Feigner was a legend, Sidd Finch come to life, a man whose feats would be beyond belief if they weren't documented as fact.

Eddie Feigner died in 2007. He was the greatest softball pitcher who ever lived, and maybe the most dominant and unhittable pitcher ever.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:20 PM | Comments (0)

July 29, 2013

Very Superstitious

For most of us in the workforce, getting home after a day on the job isn't the last second of our day. Even in my work as an overnight radio board op, I usually stay up for an hour or two after my shift to "cool down" before going to sleep. Most times, I'll glare at the previous night's highlights on ESPN.

Saturday morning, I ended up flipping the TV to "Catching Hell," the ESPN movie chronicling the Steve Bartman saga. Although I had seen the flick before, I couldn't help but stay up to marvel at the circumstances surrounding Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS between the Chicago Cubs and Florida Marlins. But as I sit typing this column nearly 24 hours later, another offshoot of the story came to mind.

There's something to the otherworldly. Whether it's carrying a rabbit's foot in your pocket for a job interview, using a favored coin as a card protector during a game of poker, or avoiding every crack of sidewalk concrete you can, we find luck in our own ... special ... ways. And across the entire sports landscape, I can't think of any other one that celebrates this more than baseball.

For about a century and a half, no other athletic endeavor has had more voodoo spread on animate and inanimate objects than the "Grand Old Pastime." Where do you think we got the rally cap? How many pregame chickens did Wade Boggs consume over his 18-year career? And I wonder what percentage of players refuse to step on the baselines heading to and from the dugout.

Superstitions are a part of the romance that accompanies the game. Its dark side, however, can lead to the curses that did plague the Boston Red Sox and still plague the Cubs. The curses of the billy goat and the black cat live on next to Lake Michigan. It has been more than a century since the country's lovable losers have even made it to a World Series.

Meanwhile, the curse of the Bambino finally gave way to 2004's self-proclaimed "Idiots." Those Red Sox found a way through the pressure to play with a freedom that helped them overcome a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS and 86 years of New England misery.

Maybe that's the ticket for the front office, players, and fan base of the historic franchise on Chicago's north side. They need to find a rallying cry that goes beyond the "normal" peculiar or weird quirks. They need to focus on something that's just plain silly. I could introduce such an example.

I'm a native of Kansas City and, thus, a long-suffering fan of the Royals. Even though the franchise has won a championship in my lifetime, it hasn't sniffed the playoffs since. And the last 20 years? Don't even get me started. This organization hasn't really been talked about because, well, there's been nothing of note to talk about.

The Royals were going through their customary early-season swoon. After winning the first three games of May for a 17-10 start to the season, they stumbled through the rest of the month to the tune of a 5-20 stretch. The hope that had slowly swelled was deeply deflated. However, by the end of the month, two things happened. First, they brought the franchise's most famous face, George Brett, on to the bench to help the young players find their swing.

The second (and more innocuous) change was that they began to rally around a certain object. The item in question ... a bottle of barbecue sauce. It was something so confounding, so dumb, and so under the radar that I don't believe it's ever been looked at as an inspiration. But it was so perfect for the situation. It was so hokey and "Kansas City" that it just fit.

The mood of the dugout changed drastically. Player after player after player wanted to get that key hit or score that lead run, all to get a chance to mug for the camera with a condiment. Heck, Eric Hosmer got doused with it after delivering a walk-off single against Detroit. The players acted as if it was the 26th man on the roster. And it worked.

Brett has now returned to his front office spot. The sauce looks to have been shelved for the moment. But even though the Royals likely aren't going to win the AL Central or a Wild Card spot, they are playing with more fire and better execution than they did a couple of months ago. If this puts the franchise on the path to future postseasons (an optimistic, OPTIMISTIC view), fans on each side of the Kansas/Missouri state line should look no further than their plate of ribs for the initiation point.

And that, Cubs, is what I propose for you. It may be time to find that one rallying cry that's so absurd that it could only bring people together in the name of silliness. It doesn't have to be edible (although a deep dish pizza or hot beef sandwich would be interesting). It could be a simple teddy bear or a EL-like procession after each win. The point to all this ... find that spark to play free, beyond the pressure 100-plus years of angst can put upon a franchise.

The Red Sox won a title with a bunch of idiots. The White Sox ended their drought with a soundbite friendly manager. Tampa Bay turned their fortunes after dropping the "Devil" from their team name. If they say "every little detail counts," it can't hurt to try and turn something's silliness into your luck ... your rallying cry.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 12:20 PM | Comments (0)

July 26, 2013

Foul Territory: Piss "Pour" Performances

* Missing Links, or Claret Jug-ular — Phil Mickelson shot a 66 in the final round to charge from behind and win the British Open, his first Open Championship. It was Mickelson's fifth major, and more importantly, it wasn't Tiger Woods' 15th.

* Semi-Tough — Landon Donovan scored two goals in the United States 3-1 win over Honduras on Wednesday, giving the Americans a berth in Sunday's Gold Cup final. The U.S. will face Panama on Sunday in Cowboys Stadium, where Dallas owner Jerry Jones will serve as honorary goal mouth.

* "A" is For "Effort," "P" is For "Testing," or Froome Here to Eternity, or "Roll" Model — England's Chris Froome won the 100th Tour De France on Sunday, completing the 2,115-mile race ahead of second-place Nairo Quintana of Colombia. Froome dedicated the win to Lance Armstrong, because the victory has given the sport of cycling a "transfusion" of legitimacy.

* "X-Sample," or Now, He is a "Homer," or PED-Ceit — Milwaukee Brewers slugger Ryan Braun agreed to a suspension for the remainder of the 2013 season for his role in the Biogenesis drug scandal. With his play on the field, Braun hoped to set an example for future baseball players. Now he hopes to set an example for Alex Rodriguez.

* I "Second" That — Matt Kemp said Ryan Braun should lose his 2011 MVP award. Kemp finished second to Braun in the 2011 voting. It's unclear where Braun keeps the award — in his trophy cabinet or his medicine cabinet.

* Woof Blitzer, He Was Collared, and Was on a Short Leash, or Gator A-bate — Charges were dropped against Florida linebacker Antonio Morrison for barking at a police dog and resisting arrest. It's further evidence that man's best friend is a dog, but a Gator's best friend is a lawyer.

* 96 Was 86'd, or He's Still in Uniform — West Virginia defensive lineman Korey Harris was kicked off the team after his arrest for first-degree armed robbery. Harris wore his WVU-issued sweatpants bearing his number, 96, while committing the robbery with two others. Harris will now exchange his two-digit number for a six-digit number.

* Crown Royal — Prince William and his wife Kate Middleton welcomed their first child on Monday, an 8 pound, 6 ounce boy who is now third in line to the British throne. He was named George Alexander Louis. Many lamented that the baby wasn't named "Jordan," who would then be called "Heir Jordan."

* The Other White Peyton — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed running back Peyton Hillis to a one-year contract on Tuesday. Hillis rushed for only 309 yards in Kansas City last year, so there will be no mistaking him for a superstar, although he may be mistaken for Mike Alstott.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:38 PM | Comments (0)

Requiem For a Welterweight

Before the alphabet soup sanctioning bodies, and when people still thought boxing was a sport, warts and all, there was a world welterweight rivalry that ended in tragedy. A rivalry that began when Emile Griffith took the belt from Benny (The Kid) Paret and ended when Griffith re-took it from Paret with a 12th-round battering that ended up killing the incumbent.

Griffith, who died Tuesday after a long battle with dementia, would be a haunted man in the years to come even if he managed somehow to continue his boxing career, possibly beyond its time. And Paret probably had no business being in the Madison Square Garden ring against Griffith that 1962 night in the first place.

The short version: Only the bell ending the sixth round kept Griffith himself from being a knockout victim. Before going back for the seventh, trainer Gil Clancy gave him a fateful instruction: "When you go inside I want you to keep punching until Paret holds you or the referee breaks you! But you keep punching until he does that!"

The Virgin Islander battled the Cuban onward, and somewhat brutally, until Griffith bombarded Paret in the 12th with 29 unanswered, fast punches that knocked Paret out on his feet, before he collapsed and died in a coma ten days later.

The theories ran as amok as the outrage after Paret died. There were those who believed he was more vulnerable than he looked thanks to the head blows he'd taken in three prior bouts since taking the welterweight belt back from Griffith in a split decision — with all three fights happening within a year's time.

There were others who believed Paret had taunted Griffith into a raw rage at the pre-fight weigh-in, when Parent threw what we've long since called an anti-gay slur at Griffith, the Spanish word for "faggot." In due course, Griffith would profess bisexuality even as he thought nothing in later years of visiting gay and bisexual establishments.

"I don't know what I am," he would tell a reporter in later years. "I love men and women."

Still others believed referee Rudy Goldstein failed to stop the fight sooner. Quite a turn from Goldstein's apparent earlier reputation for stopping them too soon. (Though nobody argued when he stopped the Rocky Marciano-Joe Louis mismatch, after Marciano knocked Louis through the ring.) And Goldstein in fairness may have been mindful of one of the few blemishes on Paret's resume, his apparent reputation for feigning injury, not to mention Griffith's early reputation for being something less than a strong finisher.

Once a formidable lightweight and middleweight contender himself, until his inability to take too many punches stopped him short of title contention, Goldstein — whose career as a ref included such calls as Ingemar Johansson's staggering third-round knockout of Floyd Patterson for the world heavyweight title in 1959 — had his career ruined by the Griffith-Paret fight.

There were also those ready to blame at Paret's manager, Manny Alfaro. Red Smith, the sportswriting legend then with the New York Herald-Tribune, isolated the point:

"Nobody involved has any right to blame anybody else for a tragic accident, least of all a manager who gets his boy cruelly beaten by Gene Fullmer, then sends him back against a man who has already knocked him out...

"Still, if a man honestly feels that boxing should be abolished, he has every right to cite the Paret case in support of his position."

Three fights in a year's time was bad enough in Paret's case. One of them was a play for the world middleweight belt two months after winning the welterweight back from Griffith. Paret fought Gene Fullmer, who'd taken the middleweight belt from Sugar Ray Robinson in 1957, and Fullmer made Paret resemble a sparring partner before winning a unanimous 15-round decision in which Paret was badly behind in every round.

Most likely, Paret was in shaky enough shape to stand in for a welterweight defense against anyone, never mind Griffith. Indeed, the New York State Boxing Commission would come under fire for sanctioning Paret to meet Griffith so soon after Fullmer had battered him nearly senseless. Even allowing Griffith's normal stock in trade being arm and leg speed instead of overpowering punches.

ABC commentator Don Dunphy started the twelfth round call by predicting it might be the tamest round of the evening. That was like predicting Hiroshima would be nothing but a loud pop. Griffith's unanswered barrage, including a sobering eighteen punches landed in a six-second span, sent Paret to and through the ropes, Paret somehow staying on his feet until Goldstein stopped the fight.

Paret's death drove boxing off the air as a television regular for almost a decade, abetted when Davey Moore fell into a coma — and died over three days later — after he was knocked out by Sugar Ramos to lose the world featherweight belt a year later.

Griffith would be haunted by Paret's death for years to come. It only began with focusing his ring style exclusively on his speed and his boxing intelligence. He'd have 80 bouts between the Paret fight and his 1977 retirement and score only 12 knockouts. Fighting that way helped him claim the world middleweight title from Nigeria's Dick Tiger in the mid-1960s by decision, then lose, regain, and lose it again to Nino Benvenuti.

In retirement, Griffith — who'd once packed and then helped design women's hats as a young man and was considered one of the most charming men outside the ring — struggled with his sexuality in some respects. He wasn't ashamed of his bisexuality, but he wasn't quick to speak of it at every given opportunity, either. Live and let live.

Few seemed to want to say what really might have triggered his dementia: a ferocious beating he'd taken outside a gay bar in New York in 1992, courtesy of five men with baseball bats and chains. Formerly regarded as an otherwise endearing presence wherever he visited, Griffith spent the final two years of his life bedridden and feeding by tube.

His biographer Ron Ross (Nine ... Ten ... and Out! The Two Worlds of Emile Griffith) told the Los Angeles Times, "I visited him three weeks ago. It was just so sad to see him like that, knowing he had this tremendous athleticism and instinctive skills once. He could do anything — play tennis, dance, sing. He never wanted to be a fighter."

But he suffered nightmares for the rest of his life about Benny Paret, often seeing Paret at the foot of his bed. In due course, Paret's son forgave Griffith, though Paret's widow could never bring herself even to look at him.

It's almost forgotten that Griffith took the world middleweight crown (after an earlier, failed bid to wrest it from Hurricane Carter) without trying to beat Tiger senseless, or worse. (Tiger himself, it should be said, had a career very similar to Griffith's: in 80 fights, he scored only 24 knockouts, winning most of his 60 wins by points or decisions.)

Long since has boxing become a spectacle in which the combatants — perhaps ignorant of what was meant when Pierce Egan named it "the sweet science," a phrase that became the title of A.J. Liebling's anthology of boxing writing — seem to enter with the single aim of turning an opponent into a zombie. You can only begin with seeing what's left of Muhammad Ali nowadays. (One is still in the ring in Manila, the other doesn't even know there was a Manila, said a Joe Frazier intimate to a Frazier biographer, in 2002, a decade before Frazier died of liver cancer.) Or what was left of Patterson and Johansson, dying of Alzheimer's disease within three years of each other in the Aughts.

But you might want to remember one of the last men who did approach boxing as a balance between mind and body and something other than trying to knock a man into the middle of next month. A lesson he was re-taught, tragically, when a man who probably had no business being in the ring against him in the first place died for having been there.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:44 AM | Comments (0)

July 25, 2013

NFL Culture By Team (Part 2)

Last time in this space, we looked at each team in the AFC and how they are perceived by the world (or at least this writer) at large. Let's turn now to the NFC.

Dallas Cowboys — They are sort of the New York Yankees of the NFL, in that they probably have both the most fans of any team across the country (they bill themselves "America's Team") and the most haters. As you might expect with a team with such cache, they have a lot of historical success, but while they haven't reached the Super Bowl in quite some time, they at least are usually in the playoff picture. They are owned by the cartoonish magnate Jerry Jones, who gets other people to clean his glasses.

Philadelphia Eagles — The Eagles are most notorious for their fans, and their fans are notorious for being perpetually unsatisfied with everything and anything. This is most famously illustrated by the time they booed Santa Clause, who made an on-field appearance during a game in 1968. Having lived in the shadow of Philadelphia for six years, I can attest that their fans are odious, and as a result a) I was never tempted to root for a Philly team, and b) I always felt sorry for their longtime beleaguered quarterback Donovan McNabb. I think The Onion quite nicely sums up the fans' treatment of him with two satirical pieces.

New York Giants — The more popular of the two New York teams has won multiple Super Bowls and while New York teams, being from the cultural behemoth that New York is, creates a lot of anti-fans, are generally well-liked because a) they beat the hated Patriots in the 2007 Super Bowl, and b) they are led by quarterback Eli Manning, who is pretty unassuming despite his successes and he is the younger, less-regarded brother of Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, so he's kind of hard to hate.

I mentioned "Broadway Joe" Namath in my Jets writeup. For a time in the '70s, the Giants quarterback was Joe Pisarcik. His stint was not successful, leading the New York media to dub him ... Off-Broadway Joe. That's the second-best insulting NFL nickname I've ever heard (read on about the Seahawks for the first!)

Washington Redskins — Like every team in this division save the Eagles, the 'Skins have a proud history of Super Bowl victories, and they are perhaps the most popular team in the NFL right now all thanks to exciting rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III. He was a highly-decorated college player and took the NFL by storm last year. In college football, quarterbacks do a lot more running and are more of a constant dual threat than they are in the NFL, where such an offensive scheme is discouraged thanks to the conventional wisdom that a) that offense won't work in the NFL, and b) it will get your quarterback killed. RGIII was successful running the ball in 2012 but did indeed suffer a serious injury in his last game, but his recovery is looking good.

Green Bay Packers — Along with the Steelers, the most successful NFL franchise. In fact, I'd give the nod to the Packers over the Steelers, because the Steelers did not achieve greatness until the '70s, whereas the Pack (behind Vince Lombardi, the most legendary NFL coach of all-time) began their run of success ... well, in the '30s, but in terms of modern era, in the '60s. They also won the Super Bowl in 1996 and 2010 and remain elite. The Packers are an anomaly among American Sports franchises in that play in a small city (population 104,000) and are publicly-owned.

Chicago Bears — There might not be another team in the NFL that is more heavily defined by a single season. That season was 1985, and the Bears have one of the greatest teams in NFL history, going 15-1 and rolling through the playoffs and thrashing the Patriots in the Super Bowl 46-10. That team was led by Walter Payton, one of the greatest running backs to play the game, Jim McMahon, a very colorful, outspoken quarterback known for wearing sunglasses almost everywhere, and William "The Refrigerator" Perry, a huge defensive lineman sometimes put in as running back to just steamroll over the other team. I shouldn't neglect to mention Mike Ditka, their tough-as-nails coach of the time. The Bears remain relevant and popular because they are usually decent and play in Chicago.

Minnesota Vikings — The are sort of the Buffalo Bills of the NFC, having gone 0-4 in Super Bowls. They haven't made it that far in a long time, however, and only occasionally make playoff appearances these days. They remain relevant by having the reigning NFL MVP Adrian Peterson, an unstoppable, record-breaking running back.

Detroit Lions — Speaking of unstoppable running backs, the Lions are best defined by their own running legend Barry Sanders. There's a lot of debate over who the greatest running back of all time was. I usually recuse myself from such arguments because I don't feel like I have a strong grasp on the historical greats, but for my money Sanders is the greatest running back that I've actually watched. Despite his greatness, Sanders abruptly retired in 1998. Why? Because he was fed up with the losing culture. That has only intensified in the years since, as the Lions have only made two playoff appearances since and went 0-16 in 2008.

New Orleans Saints — This is probably the team that has the greatest ratio of fans vs. a relative paucity of haters. This is a team that is hard to dislike (or WAS hard prior to two years ago, more on that in a bit). The Saints won the Super Bowl in 2009, just four years after their city was devastated by Hurricane Katrina, so everyone was pulling for them, especially since they were and are led by quarterback Drew Brees, who seems to be just about the nicest guy in human existence.

Then the Saints were revealed to have issued "bounties" to their players (i.e., incentives to injure players on other teams) and while they were punished severely by the NFL, this cost the Saints some fans. Still, a lot of people defend the Saints, saying every team does this sort of thing.

Atlanta Falcons — This is the team that usually dukes it out with the Saints for NFC South supremacy. Since they have been fairly terrible for most of their youngish history, I don't think the Falcons have much of a national reputation, for good or ill, now that they are a winning team. They are led by quarterback Matt Ryan, whose nickname, Matty Ice, is a play on him not just being cool under pressure, but a pun on a very popular beer among college students (due to its cheapness), Natural ("Natty") Ice.

Carolina Panthers — Entered the league in 1995, and like the other team that entered the league in 1995, made the conference championship game in just their second year. Since then, most years they seem to be either pretty good or really terrible, with not a lot of in-between (although an exception was last year). They are led by Cam Newton, who was sort of RG III in terms of playing style and media interest before RG III himself took the spotlight away.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — This is my favorite team so obviously you should love them. They joined the league in 1976 and for their first 20 or so years were notorious, record-breaking losers. Since then, they have been pretty successful, winning the Super Bowl in 2002, and usually are good for a playoff appearance every two or three years. Not much of a national reputation.

San Francisco 49ers — This was the team of my childhood and a dynasty of the 80s. At the time, they were led by a succession of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Joe Montana and Steve Young. Since then, times have been tough, but they have rebounded in a big way the last two years, culminating in a Super Bowl appearance last year. Like the Panthers and Redskins, they are led by an exciting quarterback who can run — Colin Kaepernik.

Seattle Seahawks — They joined the league the same year as Tampa Bay and have generally been the more successful of the two franchises, but have not won a Super Bowl. They pride themselves on having the loudest fans and stadium. This is usually something of an average team, some years slightly better, some years slightly worse. During the NFL referees strike of early last season, the Seahawks were the beneficiaries of what I think is the worst call in NFL history, at least during the era of instant replay. The Seahawks receiver on the play was Golden Tate. This led the officials to be dubbed, "The Golden Tate Warriors." Look at this list of NBA teams if you don't get the pun.

St. Louis Rams — This is usually not a strong team, but they are primarily known for two things. 1) They were the first team to have a logo on their helmet, when a Rams player painted on ram horns. 2) They were very successful in the early aughts, when, behind quarterback Kurt Warner, had a very successful run known as "The Greatest Show on Turf" which led to two Super Bowl appearances and one victory.

Arizona Cardinals — Despite being the oldest continually-run franchise in the NFL (founded in 1898), I'm not sure any team has fewer fans or haters outside their market. This is because they have been, through most of their history, losers, and despite a Super Bowl appearance a few years back, are terrible once again today. They have made the playoffs eight times in the last 66 years. Ouch.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 2:59 PM | Comments (2)

July 24, 2013

14 Teams to Watch in 2013-14

The NBA season is still a ways away, but the offseason has been an interesting one. Here are 14 teams to watch in the upcoming season, some for obvious reasons ... others for not so obvious reasons.

1. Miami Heat

Many (if not all) signs point to this being the final year of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh playing on the same team. And they are the defending champions, so I guess we'd better pay attention.

2. Los Angeles Clippers

What can Doc Rivers do to move this team from exciting to real contender in the West? His showing up is a good start. The Clippers are automatically more of a playoff threat with Rivers at the helm.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

Westbrook's injury in the playoffs was obviously a huge loss. The Thunder were an obvious threat to beat the Spurs and have a rematch with the Heat in the finals, but without Westbrook, well, Durant can't pass the ball to himself. The curious thing about the Thunder is that they really haven't bothered to find a third superstar. Kevin Martin did okay coming off the bench as a shooting guard, but he's gone and he was no James Harden. OKC would be a really interesting place for Kevin Love to land in the near future. Think about that potential lineup.

4. Indiana Pacers

People seem to have already forgotten that the Pacers were within reach of defeating the Heat in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. This team is rock solid defensively, physical, and a virtual rebounding machine. Who is to say that the Pacers don't knock off the Heat this year in the playoffs?

5. Brooklyn Nets

Jason Kidd, one of the smartest players in the NBA, becomes the coach of the Nets and does one of the stupidest things a person can do before even coaching a game: DUI. But aside from that terrible leadership, the Nets have a really interesting combination of players after acquiring Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. All in all though, I'd say there is a good possibility of problems in Brooklyn. Joe Johnson is overrated. Garnett can still play good basketball, but his name is bigger than his game right now. I'd say the same is true of Pierce. Add to that Deron Williams and Brook Lopez and Jason Kidd and you have a lot of big names and only one basketball with a first year head coach who just retired. I think they'll win games, but I'm also keeping my hopes up for a train wreck.

6. San Antonio Spurs

I love the Spurs. I think with Tony Parker they have one of the top three point guards in the NBA they are also blessed with some young talent with guys like Danny Green and Gary Neal, but the Spurs need a replacement for the aging Tim Duncan. Where are you going to find such fundamentally sound leadership? Add the Spurs to the list of teams that will be in the Kevin Love sweepstakes after the 2014-15 season.

7. New York Knicks

The Knicks had a very good year in 2012-13. Not only were they largely unaffected by what could have been a Linsanity hangover, they seem to finally understand that Amar'e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony cannot coexist on the court at the same time. Both players have three years left on their contract and highly doubt that both players will finish out their contracts in New York.

8. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are one of the quiet, sexy teams in the NBA right now. Stephen Curry, David Lee, and Klay Thompson made for a dangerous, relatively unknown "Big Three." Both Lee and Thompson are stars in their own right, but Curry seems to be the type of leader that can bring out the best his teammates. They also added Andre Iguodala to the roster for this season, making them even tougher. Golden State's biggest problem is the laundry list of competition in the West.

9. Houston Rockets

I remember last year when the Lakers got Dwight Howard (and Steve Nash), there were analysts claiming the Lakers were better than the Thunder and Heat and everybody else. And they weren't. Now the Rockets have Howard and many people are ready to crown them Western Conference champions. I'm not. The Rockets finished eighth in the West last season and the only team that I know they are better than this year in the West is the Lakers ... who were seventh. Yes, I think they may have an edge on the Grizzlies and the Nuggets. But can you really have any certainty that the Rockets will improve by more than one spot in the West? Certainly they have the potential, but historically superstar driven teams take a year to gel before the dominance comes forward.

10. Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose is supposedly healthy. What does that mean for a team that finished fifth in the East without him? Probably that they'll finish fifth in the East with him. It's obvious that Rose may not be the same player he was in 2010-11, but you'd think he could provide the boost needed to put the Bulls in the top two in the East. Well, they are not better than the Heat. The Nets improved significantly in the off-season. I think the Knicks are figuring some issues out. And the Pacers are as good as ever. The West is a bit deeper with the good teams, but the East's top five teams are nothing to sneeze at.

11. Memphis Grizzlies

In 15 playoff games, the Grizzlies had three players average 17 points a game: Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley ... a terribly unsexy Big Three. But the Grizzlies won with defense. They only allowed 89.3 points per game last season, best in the NBA. It doesn't look like much has changed for the Grizzlies. Can they get closer to spoiling everyone's Western Conference?

12. Denver Nuggets

Did you know that the Nuggets were the third best team in the West last season? They seem to get lost in media coverage. Here is another fun fact for you. In 2012-13, the Nuggets were ranked number one in scoring, number two in rebounds, and number three in assists. They were very balanced on offense and seem rather similar to the Pacers and the Warriors as a team with really good players, but not guys who jump out at you as obvious superstar material.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves

Without injuries, I believe the Timberwolves would have been a playoff team last season. Their best player, Kevin Love only played 18 games last season. The Timberwolves went 9-9 in those games. Stud point guard Ricky Rubio also missed significant time. The Wolves have had a pretty good offseason, but their main concern this offseason has been making sure their top guys are healthy. If Rubio and Love remain injury free, I expect the Timberwolves to make the jump to a playoff team. They'll only be eighth in the West, but that's enough for a franchise that has been on a playoff drought since Kevin Garnett left town.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers

Most people were surprised by the selection of Anthony Bennett with the first overall pick. Perhaps just as many were surprised that the Cavs signed Andrew Bynum to a two year deal soon after. Add Kyrie Irving to the list and you high three high ceiling players. The East is pretty weak outside of the top five teams. I can see the Cavaliers playing .500 basketball and making the playoffs. If Bynum holds up, who knows where they could end up in another few years with their talent and youth.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 7:30 PM | Comments (0)

July 23, 2013

Braun and Done

Ryan Braun managed to beat one rap a year and a half ago. He tested positive for synthetic testosterone after his Brewers were pushed out of the 2011 postseason, leaving room enough to doubt whether he'd been doing something untoward during that MVP season. He further secured himself after arbitrator Shyam Das ruled his sample had been secured improperly. (A ruling that cost Das his job.)

It didn't hurt that Braun didn't necessarily fit the stereotype of the actual or alleged performance-enhancing substance user. Among other things, his 33 home runs during 2011 were a mere one above his seasonal average to that point. His home run distances were measured to be nothing much out of the ordinary power hitter's range. And he hardly looked the part of a PED player in hitting a career-high 42 bombs in 2012.

That was then, this is now. The Biogenesis hoopla—the shuttered Florida anti-aging clinic believed now to have been a way station for actual or alleged PEDs and players who sought them—has caught Braun not necessarily red-handed but not necessarily forthright, either. Which may be a polite way of saying things. Since the word came Monday that he accepted a suspension for the remainder of the 2013 season, Braun has been hammered as having gone from one of baseball's more engaging presences to one of the game's least forthcoming liars.

When the word went forth that baseball government was talking to players on the Biogenesis lists and pondering major suspensions for a few, Braun was forthright only in saying that he wasn't going to answer any questions about Biogenesis, insisting that “the truth” would still hold fast. He may have convicted himself with both his refusal to answer baseball government questions earlier this month and with his own formal statement as the suspension was handed down and the news whipped around baseball:

"As I have acknowledged in the past, I am not perfect. I realize now that I have made some mistakes, it reads in part. I am willing to accept the consequences of those actions. This situation has taken a toll on me and my entire family, and it is has been a distraction to my teammates and the Brewers organization."

"Distraction?" The Brewers had a choice no mid-market team likes to face during Braun's MVP season. They could hang their future on either Braun or first baseman Prince Fielder, knowing they couldn't afford both, and they decided it would be Braun, signing him to a nine-figure, eight-year extension that priced them out of Fielder's market even if they could trim a few other financial sails elsewhere. Leaving Fielder to move on to the Detroit Tigers (and win a pennant with them) and the Brewers with an expensive omelet on their faces.

Various Brewers players strained to talk to the press after their game Monday, but reading and listening between the lines you could all but feel what observers caught in the clubhouse when they weren't speaking to microphones and notebooks: Braun, once thought to be among baseball's most engaging, had made them all look like fools and liars for having defended him.

He did likewise outside the Brewers clubhouse, too. All you had to to was follow the Twittersphere in the wake of the news. Arizona pitcher Brandon McCarthy tweeted that once Braun began with "I realize now," he, McCarthy, "checked out." Hall of Famer Johnny Bench weighed in: "Braun and society, deny, deny deny! Good for @MLB doing a great job." Former pitcher Mark Mulder suggested another portion of Braun's punishment: "The sample collector that Braun bashed and tore apart should get the rest of Braun's entire contract."

That would be Dino Laurenzi, Jr., whom the Braun camp, if not Braun himself, named over a year ago as the mishandler of the test sample that got Braun the fifty-game suspension he beat in arbitration.

It may turn out that synthetic testosterone or anything else he did use, assuming he did use, did nothing much for Braun's playing statistics and everything for shooting a few more pointy arrows into his compromised image. And the Biogenesis hoopla is far from done. Players Association executive director Michael Weiner has said the union will not put up a fight on behalf of players suspended with “overwhelming evidence” that they indulged in actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances.

That includes Alex Rodriguez, who has also been linked to Biogenesis, and whose bid to return from hip surgery has just been marred by a quadriceps injury while on rehab assignment. Conspiracy theorists are scurrying to connect A-Rod's dots in various ways. But almost the only thing to come from the news of Braun's purgatory, other than recriminations around those he made to resemble fools for defending him, is that it seems a question of when, not if A-Rod will be facing similar music.

He won't be alone, either. Jhonny Peralta, the Tigers shortstop whose name has been mentioned in connection with the clinic, wouldn't talk when the Braun news broke. Bartolo Colon (pitcher, Oakland), Nelson Cruz (right fielder, Texas), and Everth Cabrera (shortstop, San Diego) are thought to be facing Biogenesis suspensions as well. For Colon, who missed time enough last year on a similar suspension, it could mean a career killer. Losing Colon and Cruz could put a big dent in the Athletics' and the Rangers' pennant race plans; Cruz in turn could lose a big free agency payday if he's suspended, considering his current hitting pace.

And there'll be those who might still say baseball government or maybe a sample handler is to blame. Why not? It worked for Braun the first time around. But that was then. This is now. And those saying such things may yet prove a small if shrill minority. In and out of major league clubhouses. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick isolates a parallel point:

"In a roundabout sort of way, Braun performed a public service with his [2011-12] grievance. Baseball and the players' association got together and tightened up some loopholes in the testing program to make sure they don't recur. While fans remain eternally skeptical, the tide has turned in big league clubhouses and the overwhelming majority of players are anxious to move on to a new, PED-free era".

In the middle of which, there's Ryan Braun, realizing he isn't perfect, he's made some mistakes, and he's willing to accept the consequences. How very big of him now.

"I don't know if Braun is an inherently bad person, a serial liar or just a ballplayer who got trapped in a situation of his own making and didn't know how to escape," Crasnick writes. "But his willingness to cut a deal in the Biogenesis case merely confirms the rampant sentiment that he skated on a technicality the first time around. And now he'll have to spend the rest of his career walking around with a scarlet 'F' for 'fraud.'"

Well, there may be one point in Braun's favor. His apology Monday was weak enough, but it still beats what we have so far from Alex Rodriguez, against whom it's being reported baseball government has shiploads more than they actually had on Braun, including a possible charge that A-Rod actually tried to interfere with the probe into Biogenesis.

But all we've got from Rodriguez about it so far is silence. And with Braun having fallen, silence won't necessarily prove golden.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 12:50 PM | Comments (0)

Froome, Quintana Star at 100th Tour de France

Every Tour de France is unique, featuring not only different teams and different riders, but new routes, with innovative combinations of climbs and descents. Organizers for the 100th Tour worked to make this year's edition particularly distinct, and they succeeded. The 2013 Tour began in Corsica, featured two climbs of the Alpe d'Huez in a single stage, and ended with a twilight ride into Paris, all firsts.

While the Tour's planners facilitated success, three riders in particular stole the stage in France. Germany's Marcel Kittel, a 25-year-old rider for the Argos-Shimano team, won four stages, including the first and last days of the race. Chris Froome, the 2012 runner-up and pre-race favorite, proved himself the strongest man in the Tour and won the yellow jersey easily. But perhaps the brightest star of the race was 23-year-old Colombian Nairo Quintana, riding his first Tour. Quintana rode brilliantly in the mountains, finishing second to Froome in the General Classification, while winning both the King of the Mountains competition and the white jersey of Best Young Rider. Many cycling fans are already anticipating Quintana as a strong overall contender to win next year's Tour.

Stages 1-7

The early stages of a Grand Tour never go quite as planned, and Stage 1 was marred by a team bus getting stuck at the finish line. With the riders only a few kilometers away, race organizers moved the finish to an earlier point, then freed the bus and reinstated the original finish. The changes created chaos in the peloton, and a major crash derailed the top four sprinters expected to contest the finish: Mark Cavendish, Matthew Goss, Andre Greipel, and Peter Sagan. Many riders were injured, but Kittel capitalized on the small field to win a sprint finish and capture the yellow, green, and white jerseys.

Medium-mountain stages the next two days put Sagan into the green jersey, as the other sprinters were dropped early on the climbs. Jan Bakelants won Stage 2 and a day in yellow, followed by Simon Gerrans on Stage 3 and the Orica-Greenedge Team in the Stage 4 team time trial. Cavendish, Greipel, and Sagan respectively won the next three stages, with Orica choosing to pass the yellow jersey from Gerrans to his teammate Daryl Impey, the first South African ever to wear the maillot jaune.

Stages 8-11

The first day in the Pyrenees featured two brutal climbs: the beyond-category Col de Pailhères and a first-category climb to the Ax 3 Domaines. Team Sky showed incredible strength, with Froome riding away from everyone, and his teammate Richie Porte finishing second. The win put Froome in the yellow jersey, with a 51-second lead on Porte and over a minute on the other GC contenders. With Sky looking unbeatable, all the team except Froome cracked on the following stage, with Porte losing massive time. Garmin's Dan Martin edged Jakob Fuglsang in a breakaway to win the stage.

Kittel won a sprint finish in Stage 10, and Tony Martin took the individual time trial in Stage 11. Froome finished close behind Martin, however. He gained roughly two minutes on his fellow contenders for the yellow jersey, increasing his lead over 2nd-place Alejandro Valverde to 3:25. Bauke Mollema, Alberto Contador, and Roman Kreuziger rounded out the top five, the only riders within four minutes of Froome.

Stages 12-15

Kittel won Stage 12 — his third win of the Tour — to announce himself as a very serious contender in any sprint finish. Stage 13 featured a reasonably flat ride, a presumed easy day and another sprint finish. But powerful crosswinds and the aggressive riding of Omega Pharma-Quick Step combined to fracture the peloton, and a day many viewers anticipated as dull turned out to be perhaps the most tension-filled in the race. Kittel and Greipel were both left behind, but even more importantly, Valverde suffered a flat tire and was never able to catch up. Movistar dispatched nearly its entire team to assist Valverde, but rather than helping him rejoin Froome and the other contenders, the whole squad got left behind. Valverde lost 10 minutes and Movistar surrendered its lead in the Team Competition. A late breakaway led by Belkin Pro Cycling and Team Saxo-Tinkoff dropped Froome and Sky, gaining about a minute in the General Classification, and Cavendish outsprinted Sagan to win the stage.

After the brutal winds, the peloton took a collective rest on Stage 14 and Matteo Trentin won the sprint in a large breakaway. Stage 15 concluded with a climb of the Beast of Provence, Mont Ventoux. Nairo Quintana, who had announced himself with an explosive performance in the Pyrenees, attacked early, but Froome dropped Alberto Contador and the other contenders, stayed with Quintana for a few kilometers, and then passed the young Colombian for a solo win on an iconic climb, effectively cementing himself in the yellow jersey and doing so with incredible panache.

Stages 16-18

Following a rest day, the peloton entered the Alps. A large breakaway succeeded, with Movistar's Rui Costa attacking late and winning the stage. Two second-category climbs highlighted the individual time trial on Stage 17. Froome won the stage, his third of the Tour, but most of the top GC contenders finished within a minute of his time. At this point, Froome led 2nd-place Contador by 4:34. The host nation suffered an unfortunate loss during the time trial, as Jean-Christophe Peraud, 9th in the GC and by far the highest-placed French rider, crashed out of the Tour with a broken collarbone.

Stage 18 was the highlight of the Tour, absolutely the most thrilling stage of the race. Featuring six categorized climbs, including three Cat-2's and two climbs of the fabled Alpe d'Huez, the Stage saw an early breakaway of nine reduced to Moreno Moser, Christophe Riblon, and Tejay van Garderen. While those three fought to stay ahead of the peloton, the GC battle behind them was furious. Saxo-Tinkoff attacked early and often, while Movistar tried to position Quintana for a stage win and a push up the GC.

Van Garderen lost nearly two minutes with a mechanical issue, but battled back. Riblon missed a turn on the first descent of the Alpe d'Huez and nearly crashed, riding off the road into a bog. He caught up, too. Meanwhile, the chase group got smaller and smaller. A joint attack by Contador and Kreuziger backfired, as both were dropped by Froome, Porte, Quintana, and Joaquim Rodriguez. At the front of the race, Moser faltered, and then van Garderen dropped Riblon as well, riding solo and trying to hold off Quintana and the other GC riders.

As van Garderen neared the top of the final climb, though, Riblon found new legs. Through 17 stages, France was without a stage win, and the fans lining the race route roared as he slowly reeled in van Garderen. Riblon seemed to grow stronger as his rival weakened, and with about 1 km to go, he flew past the American to win the stage. After van Garderen and Moser crossed the line, Quintana and Rodriguez finished about a minute ahead of Froome, and nearly two minutes before Contador and Kreuziger. Froome had all but clinched the maillot jaune, but now only 47 seconds separated 2nd-place Contador and 5th-place Rodriguez, with Quintana and Kreuziger joining them as podium contenders.

Stages 19-21

Heavy rain forced a conservative approach to Stage 19, and Costa won a second stage as the GC contenders held pat. In Stage 20, the beyond-category climb of Mont Semnoz cracked the race. Once again, it was Froome, Quintana, and Rodriguez who rode away from the group, dropping Contador and Kreuziger. Quintana sullied his ride a bit by refusing to take any pulls at the front, leaving Froome and especially Purito to do the work, but the young Colombian rode away at the end, winning the stage and securing 2nd place in the General Classification. Rodriguez, meanwhile, gained enough time on the two Saxo-Tinkoff riders to secure his own position on the podium.

The riders reached Paris at dusk the next day, and all the major sprinters contested the finish at the Champs-Élysées. Argos-Shimano provided the best lead-out train, and Kittel barely held off Greipel and Cavendish to win the final sprint.

General Classification

1. Christopher Froome (GBR), Team Sky, 83:56:40
2. Nairo Quintana (COL), Movistar Team, 84:01:00 (+ 4:20)
3. Joaquim Rodríguez (ESP), Team Katyusha, 84:01:44 (+ 5:04)
4. Alberto Contador (ESP), Team Saxo-Tinkoff, 84:03:07 (+ 6:27)
5. Roman Kreuziger (CZE), Team Saxo-Tinkoff, 84:04:07 (+ 7:27)
6. Bauke Mollema (NED), Belkin Pro Cycling, 84:08:22 (+ 11:42)
7. Jakob Fuglsang (DEN), Astana, 84:08:57 (+ 12:17)
8. Alejandro Valverde (ESP), Movistar Team, 84:12:06 (+ 15:26)
9. Daniel Navarro (ESP), Cofidis, 84:12:32 (+ 15:52)
10. Andrew Talansky (USA), Garmin-Sharp, 84:14:19 (+ 17:39)

It was a tough Tour for Contador, considered the most likely rider to unseat Froome, but the biggest disappointment had to be Cadel Evans (39th), the 2011 Tour winner and third place in this year's Giro d'Italia. Evans cracked in the first stage of the Pyrenees and never recovered, losing massive time on nearly every day in the mountains. Ryder Hesjedal (70th) crashed in the first week of the Tour and never looked totally healthy, while Andy Schleck (20th) is still recovering from last year's injury and doesn't seem all the way back yet.

Froome was by far the strongest rider on this year's Tour, but Quintana showed that he'll need to be taken very seriously going forward, and Rodriguez seemed to get stronger as the Tour went on. If the organizers ever add a fourth week of racing, he might be unbeatable.

Points Classification

1. Peter Sagan (SVK), Cannondale, 409 pts
2. Mark Cavendish (GBR), Omega Pharma-Quick Step, 312
3. André Greipel (GER), Lotto-Belisol, 267

Marcel Kittel (222), riding for Argos-Shimano, won as many stages as Sagan, Cavendish, and Greipel combined, but he got left behind a couple of times and he never contested the intermediate sprint points. Sagan, who won the green jersey, pretty clearly was not one of the top three sprinters on this year's Tour, but he got into breakaways, he survived the early mountains, and he contested everything.

King of the Mountains

1. Nairo Quintana (COL), Movistar Team, 147 pts
2. Christopher Froome (GBR), Team Sky, 136
3. Pierre Rolland (FRA), Team Europcar, 119

The hideous polka dot jersey was the most hotly contested leader's jersey on this year's Tour, not decided until the final day in the mountains. With double points on several finishing climbs, contenders like Rolland, Riblon, and Mikel Nieve were unable to gain enough points to hold off the GC contenders. Quintana passed Froome and Rolland as Climbs Leader on the final ascent of Stage 20.

Young Riders

1. Nairo Quintana (COL), Movistar Team, 84:01:00
2. Andrew Talansky (USA), Garmin-Sharp, 84:14:19 (+ 13:19)
3. Michał Kwiatkowski (POL), Omega Pharma-Quick Step, 84:15:39 (+ 14:39)

This was a sensational tour for young riders. Quintana finished on the podium and won King of the Mountains. Talansky placed ahead of strong teammates like Dan Martin and Hesjedal, earning a top-10 GC ranking on his first Tour de France. Kwiatkowski wore the white jersey for 10 days, helped to lead out Cavendish on sprints, and ranked 11th in the GC. Fourth-place Romain Bardet (+22:22) also rode well and could be a top-10 GC contender in the future.

Team Classification

1. Team Saxo-Tinkoff, 251:11:07
2. Ag2r-La Mondiale, 251:19:35 (+ 8:28)
3. RadioShack-Leopard, 251:20:09 (+ 9:02)

Fourth-place Movistar probably would have won the Team Classification if not for Valverde's mechanical issue in Stage 13, but the top three teams fought hard for this title in the Alps, with Saxo-Tinkoff winning on the strength of two top-five GC riders (Contador and Kreuziger) plus 16th-place Michael Rogers.

Most Successful Teams at the 2013 Tour de France

Subjectively, I've divided the 22 teams at the 100th edition of the Tour into three groups: Very Successful, Moderately Successful, and Not Successful. Each team did some good things, but everyone in the last group failed to meet their pre-race goals. The top, "very successful" teams combined to win all four leader jerseys and 18 of the 21 stages.

Very Successful

1. Team Sky — They came to the Tour for Chris Froome, and he won by more than four minutes, holding the yellow jersey for the final two weeks of the race. Richie Porte also looked very strong, and could probably contend for a Grand Tour himself.

2. Movistar Team — With Froome's success taking no one by surprise, Nairo Quintana was the sensation of the tour. He won two of the four leaders' jerseys and placed 2nd overall, in his first Tour de France. Rui Costa won two stages, and Alejandro Valverde also rode exceptionally well, finishing among the top 10 despite his disaster in Stage 13.

3. Omega Pharma-Quick Step — Mark Cavendish is such an accomplished sprinter that "only" winning two stages was a disappointment, but they also got stage wins from Tony Martin and Matteo Trentin, while Michal Kwiatkowski finished 3rd in the Young Riders competition and 11th overall. The entire OPQ team earned Most Aggressive Rider honors for its performance in Stage 13.

4. Argos-Shimano — Marcel Kittel told reporters that the team came into this year's Tour hoping to win a stage. Kittel exceeded all expectations, winning four stages, including a victory on Corsica that gave him a day in the yellow jersey. The team must be thrilled with its results.

5. Team Saxo-Tinkoff — They finished off the podium, a colossal disappointment in a race they thought Contador had a chance to win. But they placed two riders in the top five and they won the Team Classification, with both Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger among the GC leaders throughout the three weeks.

6. Cannondale — They rode the Tour to get Peter Sagan the green jersey. He only captured one stage win, but he spent nearly the whole race in green and won the Points Classification by almost 100.

7. Ag2r-La Mondiale — Placed 2nd in the Team Classification. Christophe Riblon won Stage 18 and was named Most Aggressive Rider of the Tour. Jean-Christophe Péraud rode very well for the first two weeks, and Romain Bardet ranked 4th among young riders. Blel Kadri found his way into a number of breakaways, even spending a day in polka dots.

8. Orica-GreenEDGE — Recovered from a disastrous first day (with their team bus trapped under the finish) to win two stages, including the team time trial. Both Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey wore the yellow jersey, for two days apiece.

Moderately Successful

9. RadioShack-Leopard — Jan Bakelants won Stage 2 and spent a day in the yellow jersey. Five RadioShack-Leopard riders ranked in the top 40 of the GC, and the team finished a close 3rd in the Team Classification. 41-year-old Jens Voigt, the oldest rider in the Tour, seemed to get into every breakaway.

10. Team Katyusha — Can anyone explain to me why everyone spells this Katusha? The Cyrillic character ю is pronounced "you" (not "oo"). Anyway, Joaquim Rodriguez had a great third week and finished on the podium, while Alexander Kristoff placed 5th in the green jersey competition and Daniel Moreno ranked 17th in the GC.

11. Belkin Pro Cycling — A couple months ago, this team had no sponsor, riding as Team Blanco. Belkin finally picked them up just weeks before the Tour, and were rewarded with two prominent GC riders, 6th-place Bauke Mollema and 13th-place Laurens ten Dam. Belkin ranked 5th among 22 teams in the Team Classification. It was a Tour that exceeded expectations, and the new sponsor has got to be pleased.

12. Garmin-Sharp — Dan Martin won Stage 9, and Andrew Talansky rode a sensational first tour, 2nd in the white jersey and 10th overall. Ryder Hesjedal and David Millar featured prominently in breakaways.

13. Lotto-Belisol — Team leader Jurgen Van Den Broeck abandoned in the first week, but Andre Greipel won Stage 6, won numerous intermediate sprints, and finished 3rd in the Points Classification. That's a pretty solid Tour.

14. Team Europcar — A lot of success for a wild card team. Pierre Rolland spent half the Tour as King of the Mountains leader and finished 3rd in that competition. Both he and Cyril Gautier ranked among the top 40 GC riders, and Jérôme Cousin earned the combativity award on two stages.

15. Euskaltel-Euskadi — Mikel Nieve placed 12th in the GC and tied for 5th in King of the Mountains points. Euskaltel riders earned publicity in a number of breakaways, and Jon Izagirre finished 23rd overall. They ranked 7th in the Team Classification.

Not Successful

16. Cofidis — A strong third week saved their Tour. A breakaway on Stage 19 moved Daniel Navarro into the top 10 in the GC, and Cofidis finished 10th in the Team Classification. They were invisible the first two weeks.

17. Astana — They lost four riders, most of any team, including three in the first week. Jakob Fuglsang rode a very strong Tour (7th overall).

18. Lampre-Merida — Damiano Cunego, a GC hopeful, finished outside the top 50. Roberto Ferrari was no match for the top sprinters, never finishing higher than 5th. José Serpa rode a strong third week and grew a fabulous moustache.

19. BMC Racing Team — Their top finisher was 35th-place Steve Morabito. Cadel Evans, expected to compete for the podium, got dropped on every tough climb, and Tejay van Garderen was unable to capitalize on aggressive breakaway attempts. BMC didn't seem to ride as a team very effectively.

20. Vacansoleil-DCM — Opposite of Cofidis, they had a terrible third week. 19-year-old Danny van Poppel finished 3rd in Stage 1, but the team pulled him out of the Tour before the Alps. Kris Boeckmans and Lieuwe Westra also abandoned the tour in the final week. Vacansoleil riders won the combativity prize in two stages, but 28th-place Wout Poels was their only rider in the top 80 of the GC.

21. FDJ.fr — Three of their nine riders didn't finish the Tour. Arnold Jeannesson placed 30th in the GC and they were occasionally visible in breakaways. It was a quiet Tour and the team can't be satisfied with its results.

22. Sojasun — Julien Simon was named Most Aggressive Rider of Stage 14. Apart from that, they were invisible.

Countries

For the nationalists among you, three countries stood out with successful Tours: Germany, Great Britain, and Spain. German sprinters won five stages, and Tony Martin won the first individual time trial. Greipel and Kittel ranked 3rd and 4th in the Points Classification. British sprinter Mark Cavendish won two stages and placed 2nd in the Points Classification. Chris Froome won three stages and the yellow jersey. Four Spanish riders finished in the top 10 of the General Classification, and the Spanish Movistar team rode a brilliant Tour.

* * *

The 100th Tour de France was an unquestioned success, an exciting race with innovative routes and climbs, dramatic stages, and closely contested competitions. On the last day alone, the King of the Mountains and two of the three podium positions changed, while Saxo-Tinkoff solidified its shaky lead in the Team Classification. Intense climbs, especially on Mont Ventoux, the Alpe d'Huez, and Mont Semnoz, brought extra drama to the GC race, as did an individual time trial featuring difficult climbs. The finale's nighttime ride into Paris went off without a hitch, and the dubstep/lights/jersey presentation at the Arc de Triomphe felt special.

Nairo Quintana figured prominently in the awards presentations, appearing on stage three times: King of the Mountains, Best Young Rider, and 2nd place in the General Classification. Still just 23, he was the breakout star of the Tour — Quintana and Kittel. Not too far behind were first-time Tour riders Andrew Talansky and Michal Kwiatkowski, 10th and 11th respectively in the GC.

But the runaway leader of this historic Tour de France was yellow jersey winner Chris Froome. Last year, he finished 2nd, behind teammate Bradley Wiggins, but many race observers saw Froome as the stronger rider. This year, with Wiggins sidelined by illness and injury, Froome justified the hype with a dominant performance. Not only did he win the Tour by a huge margin, he won three stages, including the first day in the mountains, the brutal climb of Mont Ventoux, and the second individual time trial.

Froome spent the last two weeks answering questions about doping, and that's not surprising in today's sports world. But it's unfortunate, too, because Froome has never failed any drug test, and he's never faced any serious accusation, from teammates, competitors, or race officials. Other than his being a great rider, there's no reason to suspect him of using performance-enhancing substances. He just rode over 2,000 miles to win a historic race. Let the man enjoy his success.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:55 AM | Comments (0)

July 22, 2013

Erik Bedard, Knowing His Limits

When was the last time you could remember a pitcher taking himself out of a no-hitter in the making, however the game might have been progressing, never mind a pitcher with 10 punchouts to mitigate 5 walks? And never mind that he's a pitcher with a history of shoulder trouble including three surgeries, thus a little more mindful than many of the absolute fragility of his profession?

Erik Bedard yanked himself from such a no-hitter in the making Saturday night. Now with the Houston Astros, Bedard has gone from a touted Baltimore comer to an injury-marred tour from the Orioles to the Seattle Mariners, from the Mariners to the Boston Red Sox, from the Red Sox to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and from the Pirates to the Astros.

Bedard's performance came about a week after Tim Lincecum, a San Francisco Giants pitcher with no significant injury history, but a staggering loss of effectiveness as a starter over the previous year and a half, threw 148 pitches to secure a no-hitter against the San Diego Padres. And, a little over a year after Johan Santana, throwing 134 pitches, secured the first no-hitter in the New York Mets' franchise history.

Lincecum has a lack of injury history combined with a noted refusal to ice down after a game no matter how many innings worked or pitches thrown. Santana, alas, had knee (2008), elbow (2009), and shoulder (2010-11) surgery in his recent past ... and followed the no-hitter with an ankle sprain and lower back inflammation that ended his 2012 in late July. Not to mention the re-torn shoulder anterior capsule that's kept him out this year and may mean career over.

Whether Bedard did the right or the wise thing Saturday after pitch #109 may seem to depend upon whom you ask. His manager, Bo Porter, defends him. So does Seattle manager Eric Wedge. (”Bo did it the right way. If the guy says he's done, you can't leave him in there and put him in a position to fail. He didn't have a choice.”) But that's a pair of managers. Ask other pitchers and you get a slightly different consensus:

"It would be a tough one to take the ball from me. It's always hard to give up the ball and with a no-hitter it would be even crazier." — Bud Norris, a fellow Astros' starter

"If I hadn't given up a hit in a game, I would never take myself out — no matter what age or how bad or good I'm feeling. I don't think any pitcher would ever take themselves out of a no-hitter." — Ricky Nolasco, a freshly-minted Los Angeles Dodgers starter

"I wouldn't have done what he did. I would have done things different and I think a lot of people would have." — Joe Saunders, a Seattle starter

You understand the competitive impetus. And you also wonder whether Norris, Nolasco, and Saunders had observed Johan Santana's dilemma. Not to mention that of Mets manager Terry Collins. Collins agonized over his man's going the distance, knowing Santana likewise had a medical history described best as overactive. Santana pitched his jewel coming off a season-long absence to recuperate and rehabilitate from the same injury that now threatens his career.

"I've had three shoulder surgeries," Bedard told reporters after the game — which, tellingly, the Astros went on to lose despite surrendering a single hit to the Mariners all night long. "I'm not going over 110. I'd rather pitch a couple of more years than face another batter."

That isn't exactly Billy Loes, once a rather flaky Brooklyn Dodgers right-hander, who once claimed to lose a ground ball in the sun in Ebbets Field (don't laugh — it was possible, when the setting sun blasted through the spaces between the letters spelling E-B-B-E-T-S F-I-E-L-D under the roof behind the home plate-area seats) and proclaimed he strove not to be a 20-game winner because he'd be expected to do it every year.

But pitchers' competitiveness too often gets the better of them and leaves them in little position to compete if any after they finally go big and hard. Do you remember Steve Stone? Longtime broadcaster but once a serviceable major league pitcher. Ended up on the 1980 Orioles hell bent for a big year and got it: 25-7, including a 14-game winning streak, leading the American League in complete games and winning percentage as well as wins.

The next season: Gone. Finis. Cy Young to sayonara. Shoulder tendinitis. Stone piled up his big year overthrowing a pitch notorious for wreaking havoc on shoulders and elbows, the curve ball. He admitted he planned to throw more than 50 percent curve balls to go big trying to win a pennant. "I knew it would ruin my arm," he said, "but one year of 25-7 is worth five of 15-15." Lucky for Stone he had a broadcasting career (including long service as Harry Caray's partner/foil in Chicago) in his future.

Mark (The Bird) Fidrych, of blessed memory, was too impatient to get back to the mound after his first of several injuries, the year after he was a rookie knocking the American League on its ears. He ended up fraying his rotator cuff, though the injury wasn't diagnosed properly until he was just about finished—a mere few seasons after his supernova 1976.

On the other hand, teams' competitiveness often enough gets the better of them, to the point where they can't believe something just might be wrong with one of their mound marksmen — and learn the hard way. Just ask a very different organization of Astros in 1980, when nobody seemed to believe J.R. Richard's apparent shoulder fatigue was anything but a figment of the big, fierce-looking, sometimes moody thunderbolt's imagination.

After that year's All-Star Break, Richard suffered a stroke. He recovered, and appeared in a spring training game or two and some minor league games the next couple of years, but his reaction time had been compromised and the threat of future complications was acute enough to prevent him from pitching major league baseball again.

Around the same era, Craig Swan looked like a Met comer in the post-Tom Seaver period, until his rotator cuff betrayed him in 1980 and a freak rib fracture the following year kept him down again. He made a bright comeback in 1982 (he finished second to Hall of Famer Joe Morgan as the National League's Comeback Player of the Year), but he was foolish enough to pitch on despite feeling "something pop" in his shoulder in spring 1983. He was finished the following year.

Swan used his injury-compromised career to pursue further knowledge and became a qualified practitioner of what's called "rolfing," the Rolf Institute's techniques of soft tissue manipulation and "movement education" to enable muscles and tendons to work together even if they're opposing portions of the same body parts. Who knows whether Swan and Fidrych both might have benefitted if the techniques had been available during their pitching careers?

Sandy Koufax became a medical guinea pig in a bid to continue pitching following the coming-out of his pitching elbow arthritis in late 1964. He also went from being the greatest pitcher on the planet as it was to someone from about ten dimensions beyond. Then, the insanity of it all on behalf of continuing to do something that might cripple him compelled his retirement at 30 and beyond the top of his profession.

Before he called it a career, Koufax pointed toward rotation mate and fellow Hall of Famer Don Drysdale and told a reporter quietly, "He'd retire now if he could." Drysdale by 1965-66 was suffering knee troubles. In May 1969, a season after smashing a long-standing consecutive shutout inning streak, Drysdale's rotator cuff gave out on him, at a time when corrective surgery wasn't available.

Jim Palmer went to the Hall of Fame after a sterling pitching career that was too often flecked with charges that the Oriole right-hander (who'd beaten Koufax in a World Series game as a 1966 rookie, abetted by three horrific errors from Dodger center fielder Willie Davis) was a chronic hypochondriac. Traceable to the period between his fine rookie 1966 and his re-emergence in 1969 — after two years in the Oriole system trying to re-horse following arm troubles and surgery. Exacerbated when the only thing stopping his eight 20-win seasons was elbow trouble in 1974.

Palmer became so self-conscious of his physical health that his manager, Earl Weaver, with whom he fashioned a classic love-hate relationship, once snorted, "The Chinese tell time by the Year of the Dragon, the Year of the Horse. I tell time by the Year of the Shoulder, the Year of the Elbow, the Year of the Ulnar Nerve." A man with a taste for serious literature, Palmer was spotted reading Dr. Zhivago on a team flight. "It must be about an elbow specialist," cracked Stone — before he got his own come-uppance.

Thomas Boswell, the Washington Post bellwether, who once wrote about Palmer with a striking balance between critique and appraisal ("Palmer vs. Palmer"), would finally come to wonder aloud, "Could it be Jim Palmer was smart to nurse injuries, and Tom Seaver to insist on four days' rest and never have a 300-inning season?"

Palmer was a pitcher who worked as hard at perfecting his craft as he did in maintaining order and control in a life that was (and still might be) a whirlpool of activity for a guy who couldn't sit still long enough even to enjoy The Tonight Show past a Johnny Carson monologue, by his own admission. When the Orioles finally tore the uniform off his back — you could say he was pinked after winning a measly 268 games — that too self-aware, too-sensitive fellow wept before high-tailing it out of Memorial Stadium.

And you may yet remember the Oakland Athletics' starting rotation of 1980-83. "The Five Aces," Sports Illustrated ballyhooed one and all of them. And one and all of them—Mike Norris, Steve McCatty, Matt Keough, Rick Langford, Brian Kingman — were gone within just a few years with various and sundry arm or shoulder troubles, often blamed on manager Billy Martin's inability to see the future for the present and keep from overworking the quintet. Said McCatty in retrospect:

"Billy didn't ruin our arms. Our own competitiveness did it. We wouldn't take ourselves out. I know what I should have done when my arm started hurting. ‘Tomorrow it'll be fine,' I'd say. So I paid the price. 1982 and '83 were the most miserable years I've ever been a part of. I pitched when it felt like my arm was going to come right out of the socket ... I still don't know why I got the soreness, but I was really the first to go down. Then it was like dominoes ... The reason we stayed in so long was that we were throwing well and Billy didn't have much confidence in the bullpen ... Billy called most of our pitches. We'd always have to look in the dugout for the sign. It became an involuntary action ... The worst of it is, with the pitching staff the critics were right. We did go down. But they were right for all the wrong reasons. I know that with me I was just too dumb to say, ‘Hey, I've got pain. Better rest me.'"

McCatty is now the pitching coach for the Washington Nationals. He was in on it when the Nats decided Stephen Strasburg wasn't going to be overworked in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. The debate over the Nats' wisdom was fierce. Especially when they missed going to the National League Championship Series by a tick last fall after the bullpen finally gave out. The Nats are struggling this season, but it isn't Strasburg's fault. He may have only a 5-7 won-lost record at this writing but he's also got a 2.97 ERA, a 3.03/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a 9.0 strikeout-per-nine rate, and fourteen quality starts out of nineteen.

Fifty years to the day before Strasburg was shut down for the season last year, a Washington Senators pitcher named Tom Cheney went 16 innings with 21 punchouts to beat the Orioles, largely with curve balls. Already having had a career marked by great stuff and great inability to control it, Cheney was finished within a couple of years.

Lots of pitchers know their limits, lots of pitchers don't. Lots of pitchers can pitch without end, lots of pitchers can't. A year after Cheney's fateful gem, Juan Marichal tangled with Warren Spahn — a man old enough to be Marichal's father — for 16 innings. (Willie Mays won it with a home run in the sixteenth.) Marichal didn't get done in for a little over a decade, and then only when his back finally gave out after a bad reaction to a penicillin shot and years of those twist-and-shout multiple windups finally took a toll. There's probably no single book any longer on just what a given pitcher can give or take. And any manager who thinks there is is a manager who won't be employable for very long.

Erik Bedard just might be a pitcher who's smart enough and experienced enough to know his limits, even if he did learn them by attrition. It doesn't — shouldn't — make him seem any less a competitor. If it makes him feel any better, he should know that even Hall of Famers know their limits, act upon them, and nobody but a damned fool would call them less than men anymore.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:02 PM | Comments (0)

July 19, 2013

The Dwight Howard Timeline

July 5: Howard agrees to a free-agent contract with the Houston Rockets. The Rockets immediately remain a playoff contender.

July 6: Stan Van Gundy tells Houston coach Kevin McHale to keep his friends close, and his enemies closer.

July 8: Kobe Bryant un-follows Howard on Twitter. Bryant's parents announce plans to auction Howard's belongings to the highest bidder.

July 18-22: Howard and Dennis Rodman embark on a goodwill mission to North Korea, where they meet with supreme leader and avid NBA fan Kim Jong-un. The dictator talks politics and basketball, and pitches a new reality show, "Full Court Oppression."

Howard returns to the States and urges President Obama to lift the economic sanctions crippling the North Koreans. Several headlines the following day read "Dwight Howard Demands Trade."

July 25: Howard begins a week-long training session with Hakeem Olajuwon to learn the legend's fade away jump shot. After two days of little to no progress, a frustrated Howard gives up and opts for a comparable haircut.

August 1: Skechers, in direct violation of an injunction from adidas, introduces their own Dwight Howard sneaker, called "Skips," the shoes "made for walking."

August 31: Howard launches his new charity, "D12 Step Program," which, much like its Alcoholics Anonymous namesake, advocates quitting.

September 25: Howard and Charles Barkley play a round of golf at Pebble Beach as guests of Tiger Woods. After a 35 over round, Howard looks on as Barkley and Woods are stopped by a sheriff and ticketed for speeding in their golf cart on their way to a rendezvous with a prostitute.

October 6: Howard throws out the first pitch at Game 1 of the Atlanta Braves division series match against the Pittsburgh Pirates. True to his recent free throw percentages, it takes him two throws to hit the target.

October 28: On the eve of the start of the 2013-14 NBA season, ESPN releases a "30 For 30" special chronicling the inside story of Howard's arrival and hasty departure from the Lakers organization. The broadcast, titled "To Leave and Say 'Bye' in L.A." is narrated by Willem Dafoe and later earns an Emmy Award for best sports documentary.

October 29: In his first regular-season game as a Rocket, Howard and James Harden combine for 58 points in a 121-114 loss to the Clippers. Harden's 55 points are the most by a Rocket since Calvin Murphy's 57 in 1978.

December 8: Howard celebrates his birthday with a triple-double against the Charlotte Bobcats, scoring 31 points, grabbing 18 rebounds, and adding 10 blocks.

December 25: The Lakers shock the Rockets 132-130 in three overtimes, as Kobe Bryant drops 45 and hammers a rim-shaking dunk over Howard to seal the win. Bryant gets in Howard's face, but Howard simply smiles, and unable to say 'scoreboard,' says 'standings' instead, which lists the Rockets 13 games better than the Lakers.

December 31: Howard celebrates New Year's Eve at Carmelo Anthony's lavish New York City gala and fundraiser for NBA players suffering from testicular cancer called "The New Year's Eve Ball For Ballin' Ballers' Balls."

January 31: After scoring 11 points and grabbing 26 rebounds in a 113-103 win over the Mavericks in Dallas, Howard rushes to Cowboys Stadium for the Royal Rumble, where he interferes in the 30-man rumble, subsequently costing John Cena a title shot at WrestleMania.

February 2: Howard steps outside and sees his shadow, which, unfortunately for the Rockets, means they will see six more weeks of Howard as a shadow of his former self.

February 15: Howard dons a cape for the NBA Slam Dunk Contest in New Orleans, adds a top hat, waves a magic wand, and makes celebrity judge Kanye West disappear, much to the delight of a Big Easy crowd.

March 14: After butting heads in the first quarter with Indiana's Roy Hibbert in a 108-99 loss to the Pacers, Howard leaves the game with concussion-like symptoms. TNT's Shaquille O'Neal quips that the "ringing" in Howard's ears may just be the closest he comes to an NBA title.

May 16: The Rockets' season comes to an end when the Thunder win game 5 to close out the Rockets in the Western Conference semifinals 4-1. A devastated Howard holds a players-only meeting in which he guarantees the Rockets will win the NBA title, assuming he's still a Rocket.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:29 AM | Comments (0)

July 18, 2013

The 10 Biggest Series For the Second Half

For some observers, the beauty of Major League Baseball is that every game represents a new day, and is just a tiny, near miniscule fraction of the overall picture of 162 games that every team plays. How many times after a crushing loss have you heard a manager, player or front office member say about a tough loss, something along the lines of, "It's just 1 of 162. We'll get 'em tomorrow."

And of course, literally, that perspective is true. But as the season moves to the second half, to the trade deadline, into pennant races and the cooler weather of September, there are series that carry added significance for playoff spots. These sets of contests lead "Baseball Tonight" and "SportsCenter" and are discussed on MLB Network for hours before a pitch is even thrown. They can make the difference between a division crown, and a second- or third-place finish with October spent on the couch or the golf course.

This is a list of 10 of the biggest series for the second half of the season, all of which should have massive playoff implications.

10. Dodgers @ Rockies, Sept. 2-4

This year's NL West is something of a poor man's version of the AL East. Each team has a better-than-zero shot to win the division, and a player in each division is the talk of baseball at the moment. Right now, the Dodgers and Rockies sit in second and third, respectively, each less than 5 games behind the Diamondbacks. Each team certainly has the lineup and the sluggers to challenge Arizona, but L.A. has to be viewed as a more likely contender due to much stronger pitching, and their red-hot form since Yasiel Puig's debut on June 3.

9. Phillies @ Nationals, Aug. 9-11

At this point in the season, I can't figure out how the Phillies are still in the playoff picture. Roy Halladay had an ERA in the high-8s before going on the DL, and is out until late August. Key setup man Mike Adams is out for the season. The all-star-laden Ryan Howard/Chade Utley/Jimmy Rollins/Michael Young infield may all be on the decline. Cole Hamels has 11 losses. But behind 23-home run revelation Domonic Brown, here the Phillies are, at .500, the same place as the much more-ballyhooed Dodgers, and just a half game back of the preseason World Series favorite Nationals.

Those Nationals have got to something, really anything, about their woeful lineup. Bryce Harper's return will help, but at 20 he can't do it all. And even the eccentric younger has seen his OPS drop nearly 100 points since his July 1 return. The good news is that if Washington can shore up its lineup, it still has one of the best pitching staffs in the NL. This series, while it is the earliest on this list, should still serve to solidify the top contender to Atlanta in the NL East.

8. Indians @ Tigers, Aug. 30-Sept. 1

The second-earliest series on the list represents the last time the top two AL Central contenders will clash for the season. And before that, the teams hook-up just one other time, for four games in Cleveland near the beginning of next month. When they do play for the final times this season, there should be offensive fireworks galore, as these are two of the best slugging teams in the game.

In any other season, the Indians' underrated second baseman Jason Kipnis could be a darkhorse AL MVP candidate. However, due in part to the unbelievable season a member of the opposing infield in this series is having, he's almost a footnote with a nearly .900 OPS. After this series, each team is likely to pile on the wins in September. Each team closes with a whopping 23 games in a row against teams currently under .500.

7. Pirates @ Reds, Sept. 27-29

Neither team is currently in first place, but it seems like a near-certainty that something will be on the line in the final days of the season. In the two-wild card era, that could be as trivial as who gets to host the NL Wild Card Game all the way up to who gets home field throughout the NL playoffs.

What seems less likely is that the Pirates have another free-fall in August and September to finish under .500 for the 21st consecutive year. This year's Buccos have a stronger, more stable offense and their pitching has been remarkable, led by Francisco Liriano's 2.00 ERA and Jason Grilli's 29 saves. The Reds, in what has become a tradition for Dusty Baker's tenure, are a well-rounded team whose lineup gets on base and has power, and whose pitching consistently gets batters out and registers quality starts.

6. Orioles @ Rays, Sept. 20-23

The first of three AL East series on this list has the potential to decide any number of things, just like the Pirates-Reds series in the NL. It seems unlikely the AL East wouldn't grab at least one wild card for October, simply because there's too many quality teams there to have just one playoff representative. But by the opposite token, there probably can't be three teams from the division playing on, because the simple mathematics of an unbalanced schedule say that there's just more wins for the Tigers, Indians, A's and Rangers to grab against lesser opposition.

So, when it comes down to the final week and a half of the season, it will probably mean that one or more of the AL East's top four will get eliminated. The Orioles certainly don't seem to have the magic that they did last year, and the bullpen certainly isn't as stellar. But Baltimore is a better all-around team than it was last year, and its hitting stats bear that out. The Orioles' team OPS is good for third in the AL. In 2012, it was seventh. And you can only imagine how their power numbers have improved, what with Chris Davis homering at a rate that seems like every day.

The Rays don't have a major award contender, and David Price hasn't been himself at all times when he's been healthy, but they're still a solid team on the whole. Ben Zobrist, James Loney, and Evan Longoria are having solid offensive seasons. The Rays' holistic statistical picture indicates they're about fourth- or fifth-best in the AL at about everything. If they stay as the league's fifth-best team, they'll obviously be playing on.

5. A's @ Rangers, Sept. 13-15

If you're a regular reader of this site, you know that I live in the Dallas area and am a Rangers fan. Having come out with that potential bias out front, I think this is the best division race there is in baseball. Every night, I'm scoreboard watching to see what Oakland did that night. And until this past weekend, it seemed like each team's results were mirroring each other. The fact that every Rangers fan wants payback from the scrappy Oakland team that took the division from them on the final day of the season a year ago adds another element to a burgeoning rivalry.

So then, why isn't it higher on this list? It's because the Rangers starting rotation is in absolute shambles with injuries. As I write, with Yu Darvish currently on the 15-day DL, Justin Grimm, a 24-year-old with a 6.37 ERA and 11.7 hits allowed per 9 innings, is basically an indispensable second starter right now. Nick Tepesch started 2012 in single-A Myrtle Beach and is fourth on the team in innings. In other words, I'm not confident the Rangers can keep up with Oakland, the No. 1 staff in the AL by ERA. However, the Rangers have the assets to make a deal later this month. Also, after Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Donaldson, it's not as if the A's have anything other than an average lineup.

4. Yankees @ Red Sox, Sept. 13-15

You expected to not see a Yankees/Red Sox series on this list? This series will be the last time the longtime rivals play for 2013. But don't be shocked at all if these three contests decide the best top-to-bottom division in baseball.

A not-so-stellar cast of Chris Stewart, Lyle Overbay, Jayson Nix, and David Adams have played the most games for the Yankees at their respective positions. Except for Robinson Cano, they can't hit the ball to save their lives. But New York is only six games back of Boston and will get healthier in the second half. Preseason pundits thought the Sox would be near the bottom of the East again, but instead they have the best record in the AL. The team's hitting is like a Red Sox team from the middle of the last decade, ranking No. 1 or 2 in the AL in most offensive categories. After Clay Buchholz and John Lackey, the rotation isn't impressive, but the bullpen has performed better than anyone could have possibly imagined.

3. Pirates @ Cardinals, Sept. 6-8

As of the All-Star Break, these two teams were the best in all of baseball. They each have exceptional pitching and incredible sluggers. For St. Louis, its pitching will only improve once Chris Carpenter gets off of the disabled list. They deserve to be called the two best teams in the game. But at the end of the season, one club will, at the very least, have to go into a single-elimination dogfight as a wild card. As the Cardinals (and really, the umpires) themselves showed last year against the Braves, no advantage accumulated over 162 games matters in a one-game playoff. Even though it's in early September, the right to avoid that win-or-go-home scenario will likely be on the line at Busch Stadium.

2. Dodgers @ Diamondbacks, Sept. 16-19

Breaking news: these teams kind of hate each other in 2013. It's not just that they brawled after Ian Kennedy plunked Puig on June 12, it's the statements made since then about Puig by members of the Diamondbacks. Miguel Montero said about a week ago, "If he's my teammate, I'm probably trying to help him not be hated in the major leagues. That's where he's going right now, creating a bad reputation throughout the league." Montero said those words in response to Puig staring him down after a collision at the plate. During the same series, Puig supposedly blew off Luis Gonzalez when the 2001 World Series hero tried to introduce himself.

Sure, to some extent, this all has a soap opera element to it. But in baseball, these are the types of events that can make division games into rivalries, and rivalries into playoff races for the ages. And one thing is absolutely certain. Since Puig's debut, the Dodgers are playing incredible baseball and living up to their payroll. This four-game set in the desert should go a long way to deciding who represents the division in the playoffs.

1. Red Sox @ Orioles, Sept. 27-29

The MLB schedule makers didn't really do a great job with this season's final weekend. (Ending the season on a Wednesday was wonderful the last two years. I can't for the life of me figure out why Selig & Co. switched it back. And no, "the season going into November otherwise" is not a valid reason.)

Beyond the two Sept. 27-29 series in this article, there's just not a whole lot on offer where both teams should have something to play for on the final days of the season. Nationals/Diamondbacks could have wild card implications, but Washington catching Cincinnati or Atlanta would take a vast improvement in hitting. Other than that, Baltimore and Toronto play, but the Blue Jays just haven't been consistent enough to make me seriously think they have anything but a small chance to win the division or make the playoffs.

So, there's this series, which could have many things on the line: home field, the division title, or just making the playoffs with a wild card. But this series could also feature Chris Davis' pursuit of any number of home run milestones and single-season landmarks. Even the most optimistic Orioles fan would probably grant you that Davis won't get to 71 home runs. But the "unofficial" record of 62? With 66 games to go and 25 homers remaining? That could absolutely happen, especially when you consider that Davis smacked 16 in the month leading up to the All-Star break.

There are many weeks left in the MLB season, and over 1,000 games remaining. But with a healthy amount of the season already passed, these 10 series stand out as the ones to watch that will define the pennant races the most.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 5:36 PM | Comments (0)

Fickle in the Middle

In the last few decades, NBA front offices have perfected a counterintuitive rebuilding strategy. Unlike their peers in other leagues, NBA general managers have embraced stripping their rosters of veteran talent, bottoming out in a few (or more) lottery-seeking seasons, hoarding well-timed salary cap space, and hoping their draft-topping and free agent rewards coalesce simultaneously into a contender.

Well, at least most of them have.

Despite watching several successful teams eject mediocre cores and reboot a few seasons later, a handful of NBA teams seem intent on clinging to the outskirts of contendership. Just a few weeks into the offseason, 2013-14 seems like it will be no different.

These teams seem to fall into two categories. One group is the young team ready to compete after years in the tank. The Cleveland Cavaliers seem to currently be one such team.

At the 2013 Draft Lottery, Cavs representatives gleefully insisted they had no plans of returning to the lottery in 2014. Unless they have a scheduling conflict for May 2014, this implies they plan on making the playoffs.

On some level, young teams moving toward competitiveness make sense. After all, when a front office adopts strategic intentional losing, those same managers have to flip the "compete" switch at some point.

Furthermore, the transition from collecting to contending seems to take multiple seasons. Many of the league's homegrown teams like Oklahoma City and Indiana went through Proof of Concept seasons in which bright, young players had to demonstrate they could play together. In some cases, competing for playoff entry is sufficient progress.

The second group is less logical on the court and disappointingly understandable off of it. See, while franchises regularly endure extended losing periods, front offices rarely do and certain owners simply cannot. The Milwaukee Bucks currently fit this mold.

The Bucks are owned by Herb Kohl, a hometown business man and — oh, maybe this is relevant — U.S. senator. Very few positions in this world are directly judged by the public's opinion. Unfortunately for the Bucks, their owner holds one of them.

For Kohl, strategic tanking seems off the table, presumably because owning a team disinterested in winning plays badly in the polls. So while earning a few home playoff losses probably helps Kohl win in November, it makes playing in June much more difficult.

The Bucks situation is exaggerated by Kohl's office, but the same logic impacts general managers regardless of ownership. At some point owners ask why they are paying a front office to lose consistently, and like it or not, general managers are compelled to get better for the short term. They may save their jobs for a few years with some low playoff berths, but it comes at the expense of any championship-level goals.

The course these two teams have laid out is particularly baffling not only because the tank-rebuild strategy has been proven effective, but because the current landscape makes this the perfect time to execute it.

Looking for a young, franchise-changing cornerstone? The 2014 draft has a handful of them by most reports.

Hoping to add an elite player through free agency? The game's best player headlines a group that happens to be unattached next July.

If the goal of an NBA team is to collect ingredients that can be combined in a winning recipe, then the summer of 2014 is the greatest basketball farmer's market in some time. And the best way to afford a piece of that bounty is not to spend in 2013, even if it means starving.

In short, winning is no longer its own incentive. And in the long term, this has to be a problem for the NBA.

Teams' ambivalence toward winning for long periods is clearly rotten on the surface, but there are two clear reasons why this trend is cracking the league's foundation at its deepest levels.

First, the franchises themselves risk doing heavy damage to already fragile season ticket bases. For all of the talk updating the "in-game experience," there is one surefire way to put butts in seats: win. And not surprisingly, the contrary is just as certain.

Perhaps teams can offset their losses in tanking seasons with massive revenues from sold-out competitive ones. But that assumes, a) There will be competitive seasons, and, b) fans will come back en masse when those good days return. Many medium- and small-market baseball teams who have embraced a parallel fall-and-rise strategy are seeing skeptical fan bases hold back from front offices willing to strip down their teams, even once the dark days are over.

Of course, ticket revenue is a lesser revenue stream in the current sports business model. The NBA, like all leagues, thrives on TV contracts, but tanking threatens that pool as well.

Sure, local TV suffers when teams go into the tank. But those declines tend to be neutralized at the league level (after all, if one team loses, another win).

No, the bigger problem is at the national TV level.

In league sports in the U.S., teams ostensibly play regular seasons for the sole purpose of earning a playoff spot. Certainly seeding and its benefits are key parts of the late regular season, but in most cases, the moment a team mathematically clinches a postseason berth is the realization of its regular season's purpose. The measure of a failed team inevitably includes the epitaph "missed the playoffs"; few people care to read the obituary to find out by how much.

But the NBA faces a situation where playoff spots, the very raffle ticket needed to be eligible for its top prize, are not valued. Smart teams know the disparity between elite and lesser playoff teams is so great that reaching the postseason as one of the last seeds is as hopeless as not making it all.

At some point, NBA fans will figure this out. The "race" for the last playoff spots will become less interesting. And eventually, the first rounds of the playoffs, weeks of sacrificial lamb slaughter, will lose viewers.

Until then, teams like Cleveland and Milwaukee will be flogged for getting better. But how long can a league survive when trying to win is a fool's errand?

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 10:11 AM | Comments (0)

July 17, 2013

2013 All-Star Game: Priceless

Who'd have figured Neil Diamond to be The Mariano's setup man? And who'd have figured The Mariano, in his farewell season and at his final All-Star Game, hearing Diamond warbling "Sweet Caroline" somewhere other than Fenway Park when the Yankees visit the Red Sox, before going to work with just one unforgettable disruption?

But who'd have figured American League All-Star manager Jim Leyland thinking he could perform the marriage of sentiment and sound strategy in a single gesture and get away with it because, damn it, it worked, the American League held onto a 3-0 win? With nobody but the sourest puss believing Leyland should be crucified for his trouble?

If you'd like to find a precedent, you'll have to go back to the seventh game of the 1924 World Series, with the Washington Senators having tied it up in the bottom of the eighth when player-manager Bucky Harris, rapping a freak high-hopper above New York Giants third baseman Freddie Lindstrom's head, drove home Neimo Liebold and Muddy Ruel.

Harris called on Walter Johnson to pitch the ninth. Johnson had already lost twice in the Series, including the fifth game, and you'd have had to be stone cold crazy to believe Harris was unaware that the Griffith Stadium audience wanted to see the Big Train one more time in the Series. Johnson, after all, was approaching the sunset of a remarkable career, and who knew if, never mind when, Original Nats fans would get a chance like this again?

The know-nothings might crucify him for making the move with the Series on the line if the Giants could pry back even a single run lead out of the man they'd already touched up for eight earned in his two Series starts. Harris, however, banked on his man's pride. Johnson's widow would remember "men crying unshamed, and men and women praying aloud."

Johnson merely pitched shutout ball for the next three innings, before the Senators nailed it with Earl McNeely's one-out RBI double in the bottom of the twelfth.

Leyland may have been aware historically of Harris's striking move, but he had his own burden to bear. The All-Star Game isn't exactly equal to a World Series elimination game, but it does mean home field World Series advantage for the winning league's representative, for better or worse. And while a Citi Field throng of Met, Yankee, and other fans warbled along with Neil Diamond enthusiastically between halves of the eighth Tuesday night, Leyland was about to upstage that in the only way that made both sentimental and baseball sense.

He made the call to the bullpen. The Citi Field public address system cued up and cranked out Metallica's "Enter Sandman," The Mariano's entrance music since about midway through the Clinton Administration. Rivera whipped a final warm-up toss in the bullpen, then turned to the gate and began the long walk in toward his customarily short evening's work.

Alone.

Not a muscle moved out of the American League dugout, except to lean against the outside part of the railing, probably on Leyland's orders. The National League All-Stars did likewise. The ovation swelling around the ballpark and through the dugouts seemed almost consciously designed to be just loud enough for the man of the hour to bask without drowning out his theme song. As though the honor being paid The Mariano this night should have nothing and no one to stain it.

Rivera is so accustomed to making the trip in to the mound with a softly stoic look on his face that he seemed almost unable to decide how to respond as he took step after step through right field toward the infield. At one point, you swore he was fighting to keep a sheepish grin from splitting his otherwise friendly-looking face in half. Then he arrived at his usual place of business and, after tipping his cap to the audience, began pumping the ritual eight warm-up pitches to Salvador Perez (Royals), catching in relief of Joe Mauer (Twins) since the seventh.

"Priceless," the soft-spoken Panamanian said of the entire entrance tribute. Repeated after he'd been presented the game MVP award (a shimmering clear acrylic bat, in honor of Ted Williams, for whom the award is named) and, with his family joining him at the mound, a gleaming, royal blue 2014 Corvette. The car can be priced. Rivera's career can't.

Who cares if he was named the game's MVP as much for sentiment as anything else? Even if you figured a better candidate in baseball terms might, maybe, have been Manny Machado, the Orioles' third base acrobat. His whirling-dervish pick on Joey Votto's (Reds) high hopper up the line to lead off the bottom of the seventh could have meant extra base trouble and a one-run game, considering Votto might have reached second and David Wright (Mets) would slash a two-strike line single to left to follow. But Machado picked the hopper and, in foul ground, set and whipped a throw that just did nip Votto at first, and Wright ended up stranded by back-to-back punchouts from a pair of Toronto bullpen mates, Brent Cecil and Steve Delabar.

Leyland had made no secret that he wanted the fans in the park and watching on television elsewhere to get a good long look at the Yankee bellwether one last all-star time. The Tiger skipper made even less secret that he planned to manage the game as if it were week last with a postseason trip at stake. And guess what? Nobody seemed to think in the immediate aftermath that putting The Mariano on his pedestal, letting him receive tribute, and then having him pitch the bottom of the eighth, was out of line.

Especially not with the game being mostly uneventful, if you didn't count rookie mound star Matt Harvey (Mets) inadvertently drilling Robinson Cano (Yankees) above the side of his knee in the top of the first (before striking out two of his next three hitters following Angel Mike Trout's game-opening double), the American League scoring but a run each in the fourth, fifth, and eighth, or Prince Fielder (of all people) flipping on the afterburners when Carlos Gomez (Brewers) couldn't shoestring what turned into a rare (for Fielder) triple.

Now, you can look around and probably find any one of a number of Joe Fans, in Yankee colors or otherwise, questioning Leyland's sanity in not saving Rivera for his customary assignment of the ninth inning, never mind that Rivera has a full pocket of two-inning saves on his resume. Hadn't the American League pried a three-run lead over eight previous and mostly dry innings? Don't you know that you save baseball's closer of closers for the ninth to hammer it down tight shut, you old fart?

But Joe Fan isn't a Hall of Famer, and his All-Star picks have come under scrutiny enough over the past few years. Leyland, however, was well aware that he could have saved The Mariano for his usual assigned hour. But the National Leaguers were no pushovers, no matter how futile they were looking so far. And there was always the chance that Jean Segura (Brewers, in relief of Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki), Allen Craig (Cardinals, pinch hitting for Tulowitzki's teammate Michael Cuddyer), or Gomez (Segura's teammate, in relief of Washington's Bryce Harper since the seventh), to name the three scheduled National League batters, could start a little rough stuff, maybe even enough to make Rivera a game non-topic for the ninth.

So Leyland went to Rivera knowing damn well that the moment would transcend the game outcome, but that the game outcome all but depended on it. A lesser arm could have been manhandled, the American League's lead could have been shrunken or overthrown, and the World Series home field advantage lost to the AL's eventual representative — who might yet be Leyland's own Tigers, assuming they can find their own serviceable closer and soon.

And Rivera dispatched Segura (a ground out to second), Craig (a sharp line out to left), and Gomez (ground out to shortstop) as if they'd been programmed to fall before him. Leyland's double gambit paid off double handsome. The Mariano got his 42 guns (did you really think he'd get a measly twenty-one), and Leyland got his game security.

All Joe Nathan (Rangers) had to do was protect what he'd been handed. He isn't The Mariano; in fact, there was time enough when baseball faithful wondered whether injuries would keep him from continuing to be Joe Nathan. But he carried thirty regular-season saves into the All-Star break, and he's no pushover.

Matt Carpenter (Cardinals; punchout), Andrew McCutchen (Pirates; swishout), and Pedro Alvarez (Pirates; pop out behind the hole at second base) found that out, even if Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks) managed to sneak a parabolic double off the bottom of the right field fence after two out. Now, Nathan will get to tell his grandchildren that the one-time setup man turned Hall of Fame closer was his setup man in the All-Star Game.

And that's rather priceless, too.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:12 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 19

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished sixth at Loudon as Brian Vickers was the surprise winner in the Camping World RV Sales 301. Johnson qualified second, but started last after failing post-qualifying inspection.

"According to NASCAR," Johnson said, "the front-end of the No. 48 was too low, so I was disqualified. You could say it was a 'front-end suspension.'

"We dug ourselves a hole with the disqualification. But Chad Knaus is a master of digging out of holes, and even better getting out of those filled with hot water."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished ninth at New Hampshire, posting his tenth top-10 result of the year. He is now sixth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 120 out of first.

"What an amazing run by Brian Vickers," Kenseth said. "What's even more amazing? Not only did Vickers' car pass inspection, he passed inspection."

3. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer took 13th as Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Brian Vickers won the Camping World RV Sales 301. Bowyer moved up one spot in the point standings to second, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 56.

"It was a banner day for MWR," Bowyer said. "Unfortunately, Michael Waltrip couldn't be here to see it. He was in England at the Goodwood Festival Of Speed. Some might say that for just a few days, Michael was the 'Queen Of England.'"

4. Kevin Harvick — Harvick registered his ninth consecutive top-10 finish with a seventh at New Hampshire, while Richard Childress Racing teammate Jeff Burton finished a season-best third. Harvick is now fourth in the point standings, 74 out of first.

"Ryan Newman is not returning to Stewart-Haas Racing next year," Harvick said. "So, according to Kyle Busch, Newman is saying 'ogre and out' to Stewart-Haas, and I'll fill his spot. It's a good exchange for Stewart; as for an 'ogre,' I've been called worse. As for Newman, I've been called better."

5. Kyle Busch — Busch led 53 laps at Loudon, but was overtaken late by Brian Vickers, who held on to win the Camping World RV Sales 301. Busch's runner-up finish was his fourth top-five result in the last seven races.

"The Busch brothers have declared all-out war on Ryan Newman," Busch said. "I called Newman the 'biggest, stupid idiot,' which is almost as bad as calling someone the "stupidest, big idiot.' But make no mistake. My brother and I don't back down from fights, we just lose them.

"I'm sure Newman will come looking for me now. But tell him not to bother; I'm not hiring."

6. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished eighth in the Camping World RV Sales 301 at Loudon. He is third in the point standings, 73 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Danica Patrick turned down an offer to pose nude in ESPN's 'Body' issue," Edwards said. "I understand she replied to ESPN's request by saying 'No GoDaddy.'

"Once again, we're getting worked up about Danica for nothing. What has she done in NASCAR? Not much. Maybe she should concentrate on appearing in ESPN's 'Somebody' issue first."

7. Tony Stewart — Stewart's fuel mileage gamble fell short, costing him a sure top-10 finish at New Hampshire. He fell all the way to 26th, and tumbled out of the top 10 in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"Danica Patrick won't get naked," Stewart said, "but my gas tank sure will, because it petered out."

"But how about Morgan Shepherd? At 71, he became the oldest driver to start a NASCAR race. In doing so, he's redefined 'late model' racing."

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 14th in the Camping World RV Sales 301, the lowest finish among Hendrick Motorsports drivers. He remained in fifth in the point standings, 118 out of first.

"I can appreciate a good RV," Earnhardt said. "Some of my fans travel to races in them; the others live in them."

9. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski edged Jimmie Johnson for the pole at Loudon and finished fourth, ending a string of five finishes outside the top 10. The defending Sprint Cup champion moved up four spots in the point standings to ninth, 167 out of first.

"It's good to be up front," Keselowski said. "It keeps fans and sponsors alike happy. With fans, it's a matter of 'What have you done for me lately?' With sponsors, one in particular, it's a case of 'What have you done for me Lite-ly?'"

10. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished 15th in the Camping World RV Sales 301. He is eighth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 151 out of first.

"It was not a great day for us," Biffle said, "nor was it one for Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. He was wrecked by his girlfriend, Danica Patrick. Word is she was fully-clothed when he rebuffed her."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:50 PM | Comments (0)

July 16, 2013

A Moneyball Primer For David Wells

Invariably, people who aren't interested in sabermetrics misunderstand sabermetrics. It makes sense in a way: if you aren't interested in advanced statistics (or new ways of looking at old statistics), why would you read Bill James or Moneyball or FanGraphs or The Book? The unfortunate downside is that when these people try to explain why they don't like sabermetrics, they usually don't know what they're talking about.

On Friday morning, three-time all-star pitcher David Wells, now an analyst for TBS, appeared on ESPN Radio's Mike and Mike show. About six minutes into the segment, Mike Golic asked Wells for his opinion on pitch counts and innings limits for young pitchers.

GOLIC: Let's go to your position as a pitcher, David, and last year we saw it, it was, made big news with Stephen Strasburg being basically a healthy scratch in the postseason for the Nationals, and your thought about the innings limits on these young pitchers.

WELLS: Well, I'm old-school. You know that. I think — I think it's absurd. You know, now it's all this, since Moneyball came out, it's all these number crunchers. You know, these computers don't have heartbeats, they don't have, uh, they don't have feelings, they don't have all that. It's a shame that these guys have to be subject to that. But you know, when you go out there, and you're in a tight game, and all of a sudden the manager comes to get you 'cause you got 100 pitches, that just doesn't sit well. You gotta — you're gonna have to pry the ball out of my hand cause I don't wanna come out. There's no scientific evidence of when your arm's gonna blow out. You know, some guys have higher stress on their arm than others, but you know, it's just, it's become, the game has changed a lot. You know, it's more about the relievers now instead of the starters, and yeah, it's great to see those guys get their opportunity, but those opportunities are gonna come. But now you got guys pitching 80, 90 games a year. You know, and you're wearing out bullpens sometimes. Let the starters go longer.

Moneyball, as I'm sure you all know, and as even Wells probably knows, is about the 2002 Oakland Athletics, and the efforts of General Manager Billy Beane to identify and acquire players with undervalued skills, like batters who draw a lot of walks. It is not about restricting action for pitchers, young or otherwise, and in fact the Athletics at that time were successful largely because of their "Big Three" young pitchers: Tim Hudson (26), Mark Mulder (24), and Barry Zito (24). All pitched over 200 innings, and none missed starts when they were healthy.

Below are the top 20 rookies in innings pitched, since 1998 (when Beane became Oakland's GM).

The A's have more names on the list than any other team, including one in the top five and three in the top 16, plus three other rookies with over 175 innings. Furthermore, since '98, A's pitchers have thrown 114 complete games, 5th-most in the majors (the average is 93.6). If Moneyball was encouraging teams to limit their pitchers' workloads, Billy Beane sure missed the message. But you know, computers don't have heartbeats and feelings. How do you think we got Enron?

Here's a tip for Wells, and all other analysts: let the phrase "there's no scientific evidence" serve as a guide for what sabermetricians don't support. Statistically-minded fans debated extensively last season about whether or not the Nationals were making a mistake in shutting down Strasburg.

Perhaps more than anything, sabermetrics is about asking questions, and questioning conventional wisdom in particular. People who study baseball statistics look at pitchers from decades past and ask why there are so few complete games today. Has something fundamental changed that justifies pitch counts and limited workload, or are those limits an overreaction to isolated cases of burnout like Sandy Koufax and Mark Prior? Why are pitchers today — with weight-lifting routines, sophisticated training regimens, and advanced sports medicine — unable to do what their predecessors could 50 years ago? There's not an obvious answer to those questions yet, but Wells doesn't seem to realize that the Moneyball guys are largely on his side.

That extends to the argument about relievers. Sabermetric studies have usually concluded that relief pitchers are overvalued and misused. Bill James concluded a decade ago that teams could get more value from their best relievers by using them approximately 69 games and 113 innings a year, and prioritizing high-leverage situations like ties over three-run ninth-inning leads (which hold up about 97% of the time already, because no major league pitcher allows three runs in an inning with any regularity).

David Wells is not Joe Morgan, belligerent and gleefully ignorant toward advanced statistics and those who used them. But why bring up a book like Moneyball in discussing an unrelated subject? It wasn't a computer that told the Nationals to shut down Stephen Strasburg. If you're going to blame a problem on sabermetrics, it should at least be something actually associated with sabermetrics.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:21 PM | Comments (0)

July 15, 2013

Prize Money Increase, Century of Tennis Pioneers

One of the many surprises during Wimbledon's first week was the defeat of the defending champion Roger Federer at the hands of the Ukrainian Sergiy Stakhovsky. The 116-ranked Stakhovsky, who has never before reached third round at Wimbledon in his career, ended perhaps the most impressive record in tennis, Federer's streak of getting to the quarterfinals or better, 36 Slams in succession.

While millions around the world viewed this match, very few of them knew that the two players have been involved in a major battle that lasted over 15 months on a different platform — and this time not as adversaries, but rather side by side — one that will prove to be much more important for the development of the sport than their 4-set encounter on that Thursday afternoon.

Before I explain further, let me start with a simple example: if a guy like Lukasz Kubot, ranked 130 in the world and no appearance in the second week of a Slam tournament in his 11-year career, is able to make more money (around $310,000) by reaching the quarterfinals in Wimbledon than he has made during the six previous months of 2013 up to that point, it's largely thanks to Federer and Stakhovsky, along with a few other select individuals.

Both players are members of the ATP Player's Council and have actively pursued for higher prize money distribution to players in the Slam tournaments. Although the Council did not obtain from the negotiations exactly what it was initially seeking (who does in negotiations?), there is no doubt that it came out as the winning side; and their biggest victory came at Wimbledon. Increasing a tournament's prize money is nothing new in tennis, but the distribution pattern of this particular increase is unprecedented.

In a competitive environment, one of the concrete rules is that if the aim is for those few who rise up above the rest of the competition pool to provide top-quality goods and/or services, one must first and foremost make sure that so-called "competition pool" has high standard of quality. It is precisely in this sense that the 2013 Wimbledon prize money increase excels beyond all the others in the past. In tennis, the quality of the tennis played by the highly-ranked players depends very much on the "push" initiated by the 100 to 150 players ranked below them. Thus, the example of Kubot proves how essential a role the prize money increase in Wimbledon plays to those players ranked below the top 10 that have often been forgotten in the previous negotiations of this type. But let's leave the quarterfinals aside and go further back to the first rounds.

By reaching the third round of Wimbledon, Stakhovsky pocketed approximately $95,000, which exceeds half of his earnings prior to Wimbledon in all of 2013! Take a guess how much he would have earned for the same outcome had the prize money structure remained the same as last year: around $58,600! Now, try to imagine the extra bit of motivation that the extra $36,400 in prize money signifies to a player who has been journeying in the 50 to 150 range in the ATP rankings.

In fact, we don't even have to imagine: let's revisit Stakhovsky's comments on the issue, three days before Wimbledon began; in other words, at a time where he couldn't maybe even dream of beating Federer and reaching the third round in the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. As a member of the ATP Player's Council, when asked about some of the criticism directed at the $35,440 prize money offered to the first round loser at this year's Wimbledon, Stakhovsky poetically struck back. He said that the top-10 players already benefit from exclusive sponsor contracts and added that "the rest of the top 100 guys don't have the lifestyle of superstars. They have the life of humans."

He also said in an interview with a Ukrainian sports writer back in 2012 that he came out in the red from his trip to the Indian Wells and the Miami Masters Series tournaments, even though he made the second round in the first tournament and made around $20,000 in prize money from the two tournaments combined.

Once again, he contrasted the top players and the rest of the guys: "Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray – that's simply another world. We simply don't exist in comparison with them." For Stakhovsky, the image that the general public has about tennis players "making big money" was nothing more than an "illusion". Stakhovsky's comments clearly show what this current prize money increase in the Slams, and especially at Wimbledon, mean to the lower-ranked players.

Yet, it seems that the historical significance of this increase will only be understood in the future, when one takes a retroactive look back at the sport. Many will agree that, for a few years and running, men's tennis has been going through a period of success in popularity, first one of this magnitude since its golden age during the years of the Bjorn Borg/John McEnroe/Jimmy Connors rivalries and others surrounding them. It would be very tempting for the leading figures of the sport to sit back and collect the fruits of this kind of productive period. However, this current period led by Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Federer, and Andy Murray is likely to reach its conclusion in the next few years, if not in less time.

From that perspective, the effort of the ATP Player's Council having the vision to safeguard the future of the sport, and to diminish the chances of a potentially-somber period, by protecting the interests of the larger pool of lower-ranked players before all else, is to be applauded.

There is one extra factor that most people forget, one that did not escape Darren Cahill, the ESPN analyst, ex-professional player, and a successful coach on the tour. He insisted on TV during the second week of broadcasting that the top four superstar players on the tour, Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, and Murray, have all played significant roles in the success of the negotiations by either using their influence within the ATP Council (such as Federer, and Nadal until 2012), or clearly voicing their support for the increase from the outside in the case of Djokovic and Murray.

In other words, the top four put aside their own interests and cared for the progress of the sport by supporting an increase in prize money that favors the lower-ranked players more than themselves — Jimmy Connors, who consistently demanded more for himself and the top few while he was at the top of the game, and who at times claimed to never even having heard of some of the players outside the top 30, comes to mind.

Exactly one century ago, the New Zealander Anthony Wilding won his fourth Wimbledon title in a row. What only a few people know about "Captain Wilding" is that during the two years prior to his title in 1913, he was a loud voice taking a position on two sensitive issues that did not necessarily benefit him, but were bound to make the sport better. The first one involved the removal of the Challenge round system that was in place back in those days. For those who may not know it, back in the days, the players participated in a draw called the "All Comers," and the winner of the draw would then play a one-match Challenge round against the previous year's title holder, the winner crowned as the Wimbledon champion.

Wilding won Wimbledon for the first time in 1910, earning his title through the All Comers draw and winning the Challenge match against the 1909 title-holder Arthur Gore. In 1911, he sat and watched as all other players battled through the All Comers draw. The British player Herbert Roper-Barrett won the All Comers draw after a fierce 5-set battle against his compatriot Charles Dixon, coming back from two sets and 3-4 down in the third set. When the 38-year-old Roper-Barrett had to play the Challenge match against Wilding the next day, with the temperature reaching 31 degrees in the shade, and the match extended to a fifth set, an exhausted Roper-Barrett could no longer play and retired at the end of the fourth set.

Wilding then began a loud campaign in favor of eliminating the Challenge system and giving every player an equal chance at winning the title by going through full draw, even though he was the one clearly benefiting from the existing system! The second one concerned a concept that was foreign back then, but one that has become second-nature today: the seeding system. Wilding, also writing articles for tennis publications in his home country and abroad (a common practice for players back then to add an extra source of income), continuously raised the issue of placing the best players in the draw to avoid early round matchups between them, thus raising the level of play as the tournament progressed and diminishing the chances of a quick final rounds where one player outmatched the other.

His first wish came true in 1922, four Wimbledons after he played his last final in 1914 (the tournament was not held during the World War I years), and the second one came to fruition in 1927, when the "crocodile" René Lacoste and "Big" Bill Tilden were seeded one and two respectively, along with six other players. Unfortunately, Wilding never had a chance to see the positive results of either campaign that he pioneered in their beginnings. On the advice of the Duke of Westminster, and discussions with the then First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill, Wilding joined the Naval Brigade branch of the British Forces later in 1914, and he was killed during a battle in France, in May of 1915, less than a year after playing his last Wimbledon final.

A century goes by, the technology advances, new rackets come and go, courts get renewed, facilities improve, rules change, and tennis progresses. During the 100 years, many champions lifted trophies. But not all of them were necessarily pioneers of the game. In this state of continuous flux, there are still some "constants."

One of those constants is the on-and-off appearance of personages who go beyond their "champion" status to pave the way for the progress of men's tennis. It seems that few champions such as Wilding, and the top four players a century later, manifest that character by putting the interest of others and the sport ahead of their own. And for players such as Stakhovsky and Kubot, and a few hundred others, this "constant" definitely serves its purpose.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 1:15 PM | Comments (0)

July 11, 2013

NFL Culture By Team (Part 1)

Have you ever tried to proselytize for the NFL or football in general? Perhaps you were in the throes of the honeymoon phase of a relationship where you still earnestly gave a rip about your partner's interests. Or maybe you have a new coworker from a country where "hut" is the pervasive living domicile rather than what a quarterback calls out before the snap.

While of course explaining the X's and O's are necessary, I think any sport or spectator pastime has a greater chance of taking permanent root if the learner has some sort of larger understanding of each team, its culture, its reputation, and so on.

This is how I would "explain" every team to someone who knows nothing about the NFL. Like anyone, I have my biases and perceptions which differ from yours, and I look forward to your angry letters for not sanctifying your team. Part one will be the AFC.

New York Jets — As is the case with most sports, New York has two NFL teams (although they actually both play in nearby Northern New Jersey and share a stadium), and in each case, one team is the standard-bearer New York franchise that has the majority of fans and cultural cache, and the other team is something of a little brother.

The Jets are definitely the "little brother." While they have surprised people by squeaking into the playoffs and then upset their way into the AFC championship game twice in recent years, they have now regressed to ineptitude led by their quarterback Mark Sanchez, who both put up horrible numbers last year and committed the most embarrassing turnover, known as the "buttfumble," in quite a while.

The Jets seem to attract colorful or divisive characters, and have throughout their history. There was "Broadway Joe" Namath, who led the team to their only Super Bowl and very much had a movie star persona. There was Mark Gastineau with his flowing locks, fu-manchu moustache, celebrity girlfriends, and sack dance. They recently cut ties with Tim Tebow, a player so uncharacteristically pure and evangelical that everyone either loves him or hates him but no one, and certainly not the sports media, can stop talking about him even though he doesn't even see the field much. Finally, there is Rex Ryan, their coach, who is straight out of Central Casting for football coaching for his creatively profane and larger-than-life personality.

Miami Dolphins — The Dolphins were one of the most dominant teams of the '70s and '80s. Perhaps because of this, they do not really pick up any underdog sympathy even though they've been a non-factor in the NFL for quite some time. In 1972, they finished undefeated and won the Super Bowl, the last team to go all year without a loss. An urban legend developed that each year, the surviving members of that team get together for champagne shortly after the last undefeated team goes down. They don't, but they do call each other and congratulate themselves, which is odious enough.

Buffalo Bills — They are most famous for making four straight Super Bowls a couple of decades ago and losing them all. They have not been to the playoffs in forever and are by far the most forgettable team in a storied division.

New England Patriots — If you really were going to explain every team to an NFL neophyte over a few rounds of drinks, the Pats would take up half that time. In short, they are perhaps the most reviled franchise in American sports. This is because they are very, VERY good, and they go about being so good in a way no one outside of their local fan base could love.

They are led by their coach Bill Belichick. He would make a good movie villain if he had an ounce of charisma. He makes plain his acrimony for the media (which does earn him respect from some corners) and goes out if his way to be as uncooperative and uninformative as he can be like no other coach does. He does not smile.

The Patriots ignoble legend crystallized in 2007. They finished the regular season 16-0, the first team to do so since those 1972 Dolphins. In the first half of the season, the closest game they had was a 17-point victory. This made many NFL fans uneasy. We take pride in a bit of parity and have a saying about how, "any given Sunday, any team can beat another." We appreciate dynastic teams but don't like it when one team is clearly much, MUCH better than everyone else, as the Patriots were.

But what really sunk public opinion against New England was the revelation that they were secretly videotaping their opponents' coaching signals during a game against the Jets, something the league punished them for. The Jets were exponentially overmatched by the Patriots but that didn't stop the Pats from cheating.

New England would make it to the Super Bowl and lose in stunning fashion. There was much rejoicing. While never again as dominant as they were in 2007, they are still always among the best teams in the NFL, with many of the same characters from that year still around, so antipathy towards the "Greatriots" continues apace.

Pittsburgh Steelers — One of the two or three most storied, celebrated franchises. They have won more Super Bowls than any other team (six). They are led by their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is satirically portrayed as a Faulknerian manchild by Kissing Suzy Kolber, the pre-eminent NFL humor website. In fact, if you want to understand the perceptions of players and fans in much crueler, hilarious terms than I am laying out, KSK should be a regular stop for you.

Cleveland Browns — The Steelers' hapless rival. They are "storied" too, a very old franchise that last won a championship in 1964, but have projected bumbling incompetence for many years now (they had a player hospitalized a few years ago for reasons the team would not disclose, and it turns out it was for a nasty staph infection he got from the team's facilities), and they represent a city that also projects bumbling incompetence.

That said, the Browns are something of a lovable underdog. Teams change cities and names with some frequency, and when the "original" Browns left Cleveland for Baltimore, the nation really made their displeasure felt in a way that was heartwarming for this Cleveland-area boy. In the end, the NFL couldn't reward Cleveland a new franchise fast enough, and a judge ruled that the new team got to keep the old Browns' records and legacy.

Baltimore Ravens — The "real" old Browns. Typical of the kind of luck Cleveland has, this franchise never won (or appeared in) a Super Bowl while in that city, but has won two since relocating to Baltimore. They are the defending Super Bowl champions and their claim to fame has for many years been their suffocating defense.

Cincinnati Bengals — The other franchise in Ohio is nearly as hapless as the Browns. They do make the playoffs with a lot more regularity than the Browns, however, and so their coach, Marvin Lewis, is something of a president-for-life figure in Cincinnati, even though making the playoffs once every 4-5 years would not be good enough to remain employed in many, many NFL cities.

Indianapolis Colts — The Colts for many years were guided by quarterback/Godhead Peyton Manning, who brought the team a Super Bowl victory and constant competitiveness. Manning left prior to the 2011 season and the Colts responded by slipping to the very bottom of the NFL. They made a big comeback last year with their rookie quarterback Andrew Luck and returned the playoffs. The statistics (especially points for/points against) suggest, however, they were punching above their weight in a big way in 2012 so we'll see if they regress to some sort of mean next year.

Houston Texans — They made the playoffs for the first time 2 years ago, which sounds bad but they have only existed since 2002. As such, they don't really have any sort of reputation at all. In fact, the entire division of the Colts, Texans, Jaguars, and Titans garners less interest and intrigue than any other division in the NFL, and the reason is only the Colts go back beyond 1995 (although the Titans existed as the Houston Oilers before moving to Tennessee).

Jacksonville Jaguars — Another young team without much of a national identity, good or bad. They made waves by making it to the conference championship game in just their second year of existence in 1996, as did their expansion brethren Carolina Panthers. However, since then, the Panthers for one reason or another have remained more nationally relevant.

Oakland Raiders — Another storied franchise. The Raiders are the motorcycle gang of the NFL. Their fans have a reputation for violence and psychosis. For most of their history they were led by owner Al Davis, who can only be described as "nefarious." He was also lawsuit happy. This is a very popular destination for players whose legal or interpersonal troubles have given them trouble latching on to other teams.

San Diego Chargers — Here is a team that usually looks better on paper than they actually perform on the field. They have long had enough talent to garner respect even if they don't do much with it. They are led by quarterback Phillip Rivers, who has what is known in the U.S. sports biz as "rabbit ears." That is, he listens to and reacts to trash talk from opponents and fans rather than shutting it out. It's not a good quality to have. He is a frequent target of mockery on KSK.

Denver Broncos — Very respected and successful franchise. The only thing preventing them from being akin to the Steelers, Cowboys, or Packers is that their success doesn't date much beyond the mid-'80s. Fun rivalry with Oakland, although it's been awhile since the Raiders were as consistently good as the Broncos. Famous for having such a strong offensive line protecting the run that they can and do make a different running back into a star seemingly every year. They also were led very briefly, and not unsuccessfully, by Tim Tebow, which sent the nation into a tizzy.

Kansas City Chiefs — This is a team that is in need of a makeover, both on and off the field. On, because they are not very good. Off, because this is a team with a startling recent history of petulant, bratty bullies from former head coach Todd Haley to former general manager Scott Pioli to former running back Larry Johnson. In a sense, they are sort of like the Raiders in that they project a sort of violence, but not in a sexy way you might grudgingly admire, like the Raiders do. The Raiders will steal your woman (with her enthusiastic consent) and leave tire tracks on your forehead. The Chiefs will punch you in the back and spit in your while you're in the bathroom.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 5:57 PM | Comments (4)

13 For '13: College Football Predictions

We're exactly 50 days from kickoff, which means it's time for this year's predictions. Usually, like most who prognosticate, some predictions I get right each year and some I miss by a long shot. However, as we impatiently await the start of the greatest season in sports, it's always fun to make a few guesses about the upcoming year, so here's my 13 for '13.

1) The SEC will make the BCS title game for an eighth straight year. While I don't think anyone will make it through the league unscathed and while the rest of the country will hope for anyone but another SEC team in the title game, a one loss SEC champion will emerge and will compete for an eighth consecutive title for the conference.

2) The Heisman will go to Ohio State's Braxton Miller. The Buckeyes have a great shot of making the BCS title game this season and given the team Miller has, he'll put up big stats to ensure the Heisman heads up north in 2013.

3) Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel will slide this year. This has little to do with Manziel's offseason stories and much to do with what A&M lost. Luke Joeckel won't be on the field this fall. Neither will Ryan Swope. Neither will Christine Michael. Manziel's a fantastic player but his supporting cast last year was no slouches themselves. Given the losses, plus the target on Manziel's back and it spells for a very good but not great year for the Aggies. (They'll be loaded in 2014, though.)

4) Western Kentucky will get another win over the SEC this year. The Hilltoppers took down Kentucky in overtime last year and get the Wildcats, along with Tennessee, for the first two games of the season. Say what you want about Bobby Petrino, he can certainly coach and wasn't given a bare cupboard upon his arrival in Bowling Green. Here's thinking WKU takes down Kentucky again, with a pretty good chance to knock off Tennessee, as well.

5) Indiana will reach a bowl game this year. Surprised? Kevin Wilson has been laying a pretty good foundation in Bloomington. After a dismal 2011, the Hoosiers began to show promise last year, going 4-8 but having near misses against Ohio State and Michigan State. While the November slate is brutal (Indiana goes to Wisconsin and Ohio State), I think IU goes 6-6 and will finally go bowling.

6) The hottest seat in America is Randy Edsall's. But Lane Kiffin's is not far behind. Edsall has not produced at Maryland, going through more uniform changes than victories in his short tenure. As the move to the Big Ten approaches, Edsall's seat is scalding at the moment. Remember, this is the same program that ditched Ralph Friedgen despite going 9-4 in his final season. Kiffin's run at Southern Cal has been far from spectacular as well. To make matters worse, the lack of class shown during the Sun Bowl embarrassment only leaves a more sour taste in Pat Haden's mouth right now. Kiffin needs to have a huge, win the conference and thump Notre Dame type of year. If he doesn't, Haden likely will pull the trigger.

7) This will be Mack Brown's last year in Austin. Along with receiving a fat paycheck to guide the Longhorn program, Brown wants to end his coaching career on a high note. The natives in Austin are definitely restless, especially with the rise of the A&M program and the SEC chip they are using to lure top recruits. Unless Brown can get Texas deep in the national title hunt, the pressure from the fan base will ensure this is his final year. Who does Texas get? The Horns tend to go for coaches that win in places one isn't supposed to win, so I'd have Art Briles leading the list.

8) Clemson could be the dark horse for the national title. There's usually a team that people think are going to be good, yet not good enough to chase a BCS title. This year, it's Dabo Sweeney's Tigers that carry the dark horse label. The Tigers schedule seems to have three major hurdles. Two of those, Georgia and Florida State, are at home. The third is a showdown at rival South Carolina. If the Tigers can take care of business, win the games they're favored to and get past these three games, which is tough but not impossible, Sweeney will have Clemson battling for it all come January.

9) Staying in the Palmetto State, Jadeveon Clowney is going to have more than one "Michigan moment" this season. He'll garner enough Heisman attention to bring up the debate about why defensive stars never win the award and will leave for the pros after this year, being the top pick in next year's NFL draft.

10) In a repeat of last year's "Revenge of the Nerds," Stanford, Vanderbilt, Duke, and Northwestern will all go to bowl games this season. David Shaw and James Franklin's names will be up for openings next year, though Franklin should breathe a sigh of relief that he dodged Nick Saban this season.

11) Mike Leach and Kliff Kingsbury will both pull off at least one stunning upset this year. The offensive philosophy they share will eventually bite someone over the 2013 season, especially in the case of Kingsbury. There was talent still in Lubbock upon his arrival and I'd tend to think the players will excel under a coach who actually wants to be there.

12) Army will finally beat Navy. Call it a hunch. Call it a crazy guess. Something tells me that, given how close it was to happening last year, Army will finally get over the hump and beat the Midshipmen.

13) Oklahoma State will hang 80 on an opponent again this season. This year, it will be Lamar, who has yet to win five games in a season since reviving their football program in 2008. This bludgeoning will again bring up the question as to why BCS level programs continue to schedule FCS teams.

It's 50 days until kickoff. No doubt, anxiety will be high as we all wait for Media Days to begin in a few days and for next season to unfold.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 12:27 PM | Comments (0)

July 10, 2013

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 18

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson was dominant at Daytona and held on after several late restarts to win the Coke Zero 400. Johnson became the first driver to sweep both Daytona races since Bobby Allison in 1982.

"I did something Allison did at Daytona," Johnson said, "but instead of Cale Yarborough, I punched the accelerator. Just call it a 2.5-milestone.

"I've apparently overcome my problems with restarts. Now I know that if you can't restart, you can't finish."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth's race ended on lap 149 when he swerved to avoid Denny Hamlin's spinning No. 11 only to be hammered by Jeff Gordon's No. 24. Kenseth finished 33rd and fell one spot to sixth in the point standings, 118 out of first.

"I'm not sure what caused Hamlin to spin," Kenseth said, "but he's seen more walls than China. What's Hamlin's favorite concept album? Pink Floyd's The Wall. His favorite Clint Eastwood movie? Sudden Impact. His favorite mixed drink? A Harvey Wallbanger."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick seemed to be primed for a late flourish at Daytona, lined up with Tony Stewart with race leader Jimmie Johnson in his sights. However, late cautions prevented Harvick from challenging, and he settled for third in the Coke Zero 400.

"One would think more restarts would be to Johnson's disadvantage," Harvick said. "However, much like he did to my No. 29 car, he put his problems with restarts behind him.

"Johnson's car was just too strong. The No. 48 Lowe's Chevy seemed to have an extra gear. And judging by his lead in the points, I can understand why Johnson calls it 'sixth.'"

4. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer charged late at Daytona to take fourth in the Coke Zero 400, earning his seventh top-five result of the year. He assumed second in the point standings, only 49 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Several cars, all three Michael Waltrip Racing cars included, "Bowyer said, "failed inspection last Thursday for having illegal roof flaps. You could say NASCAR 'razed' the roof."

5. Kyle Busch — Busch survived two crashes, one on lap 98 and one on the final lap, to salvage a 12th at Daytona. He is seventh in the Sprint Cup point standings, 125 out of first.

"After that first wreck," Busch said, "my car was held together with duct tapes and prayers, much like A.J. Allmendinger's career.

"Shaquille O'Neal, Adam Sandler, and Kevin James gave the command to 'start your engines. I 'acted' excited, which probably makes me more of an actor than either one of them."

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished eighth at Daytona, but was never a factor to win at one of his favorite tracks. He improved one spot in the point standings to fifth, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 110.

"How about that post-race fireworks show?" Earnhardt said. "It was awesome! And speaking of things that were 'lit' in the infield on Saturday, the fans of Junior Nation were in rare form. They are the most patriotic fans in NASCAR; not only do they show 'spirit,' they drink it."

7. Carl Edwards — Edwards was snagged in a final-lap pileup at Daytona and finished a disappointing 29th, the lowest finish among Roush Fenway Racing drivers. Edwards is now third in the Sprint Cup point standings, 71 out of first.

"The No. 99 Subway Ford just got tore up at the end," Edwards said. "And speaking of Subway, they missed a heck of an opportunity to promote the World War Z movie. Zombies and Subway? That's ready-made for a 'Subway-Eat Flesh' advertising campaign."

8. Tony Stewart — Stewart's late run to the front resulted in the runner-up finish at Daytona, a result that shot him up six places in the point standings and into the top 10. He is 10th in the standings, nine ahead of Kasey Kahne in 12th.

"Kurt Busch and I made huge strides to enter the top 10 of the point standings," Stewart said. "And that's reason to celebrate. Kurt and I high-fived; I missed, and hit Kurt in the face."

9. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished 17th at Daytona after getting caught in a late-race accident on the 2.5-mile circuit. He is now eighth in the point standings, 142 out of first.

"I'm disappointed," Biffle said, "but encouraged that our second trip to Pocono is less than one month away. That race will be called the 'GoBowling.com 400.' I'm guessing there will be a lot of spare tires there. Who talked the sport of bowling into sponsoring a stock car race? I'd pin it on the NASCAR marketing department. Groan if you must, but it takes big balls to find the nerve to offer such bad jokes."

10. Kurt Busch — Busch was strong all night at Daytona, racing to a sixth in the No. 78 Furniture Row Chevrolet. Busch moved up five places to ninth in the point standings, 157 out of first.

"Five places is a big leap in the standings," Busch said. "I guess I was feeling froggy, and for once, it seems, I jumped."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:15 AM | Comments (0)

July 9, 2013

NFL 2013 Week 1 Odds

It's July. Early July. The NFL preseason starts in around a month, and the regular season is about two months away. But sports betting is a huge industry, and some people can't wait to get started. A number of sportsbooks have already posted lines for Week 1, so let's take a look. All comments below are for recreational purposes, and none should be interpreted as betting advice. This is not just a disclaimer — I mean it. It's too early for predictions, and a ton can change between now and the regular season. A key injury the first week of preseason, a trade, a Pro Bowl tight end going to jail for murder... you never know.

Baltimore Ravens (+8½) at Denver Broncos

The Ravens, defending Super Bowl champions, are the biggest underdog of Week 1. I don't know if that's ever happened before, but I doubt it. It probably helps that last year's two worst teams (Chiefs and Jaguars) open against each other, but the champs are a bigger underdog than the Bills against the Patriots (+7), the Titans at the Steelers (+6½), the Browns, Cardinals, Raiders — everyone. These teams met in Denver six months ago, and Baltimore won in overtime.

I wrote in March that the 2013 Ravens would miss the playoffs, and after losing so many key contributors, it's probably inevitable that Baltimore will face some bumps this season. The Broncos, meanwhile, went 13-3 last year and added Wes Welker. They boast a steep homefield advantage, too, so everything is stacked against Baltimore.

But 8½ points is huge. I like Denver straight up, but that line seems excessive. In fact, it seems so nutty that I think Denver must somehow be the right bet. The books have to know it looks crazy to have the Ravens as such a big underdog. They've lost some players, they're going on the road, they're facing a good team — fine. But this is a gritty group that's never had a "down" season under head coach John Harbaugh. They'll probably finish something like 8-8, not 5-11. Everyone knows that, and casual fans probably expect them to be even better. This line looks like a trap.

The books are begging you to bet on the Ravens. Don't do it.

New England Patriots (-7) at Buffalo Bills

Weird things sometimes happen to these teams in Week 1, and weird things happen in rivalry games. The Patriots opened at Buffalo in 2003, as well. They lost 31-0, then won 14 of their next 15 games and won the Super Bowl. Who knows how their offense will look without Aaron Hernandez and Welker? I shrug my shoulders at this point spread: it seems reasonable, but it also seems like a wild guess. I'm staying away from it.

Tennessee Titans (+6½) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers went 8-8 last season, and they're expected to rebound this year. They didn't make a big splash in free agency, unless you count losing their top wide receiver, but they've had some bad luck with injuries, and that usually evens out the next year. Expectations for Tennessee are modest, and the game's in Pittsburgh, so this line seems about right to me.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) at New Orleans Saints

It's jarring to see the Falcons as a Week 1 underdog. They went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game, and they've had a quiet offseason, which is what good teams want. But both Atlanta and New Orleans have substantial homefield advantages, and everyone expects the Saints to return to form after last year's bounty scandal and the suspension of head coach Sean Payton. I guess the line makes sense when you consider all that, but it's still weird to see Atlanta as a Week 1 dog.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2½) at New York Jets

The Darrelle Revis Bowl. New York traded its star cornerback to Tampa, so he at least should feel right at home in Week 1, even if his new teammates do not. Maybe the Jets know how to attack Revis in ways that other teams don't, but as long as he's healthy, I'm not convinced there are any weaknesses to attack, and his presence probably swings this in Tampa Bay's favor. Whatever psychological benefit Mark Sanchez derived from jettisoning Tim Tebow was probably undone by drafting Geno Smith and sending Revis to play against him. I like the Bucs straight up and against the line.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs went 2-14 last year, and they're favorites on the road in Week 1. That's how little fans and oddsmakers think of the Jags. The Chiefs actually opened as smaller favorites than this, but fan betting has moved the line. I have no faith in Jacksonville, either, but this line doesn't interest me, on either side. Save your money for other games.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Chicago Bears

For the first time in years, the Bears will take the field without head coach Lovie Smith and LB Brian Urlacher. They have an opportunistic defense, a good all-around running back, and a talented receiver in Brandon Marshall. But I don't understand this line. I like the Bengals, straight up.

Chicago's defense thrives on turnovers, and while Cincinnati generates fewer headlines, its defense is actually the more solid unit. The Bengals had a much better draft than the Bears, and I expect good things from their offense this season. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green continue to improve, and a healthy Andrew Whitworth will make a noticeable difference. Two early draft picks, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard, should also upgrade the unit, and other young players (like second-year guard Clint Boling) figure to improve with maturity and experience.

Do people forget that the Bengals have made the playoffs twice in a row? And that all of their good players are young? Repeating the disclaimer at the top, that I would be horrified if anyone placed regular season bets because of analysis in early July, the Bengals are my favorite pick of any game in Week 1.

Miami Dolphins (PK) at Cleveland Browns

Two second-year quarterbacks. Two teams that haven't been good in a while. I lean towards Miami.

Seattle Seahawks (-3½) at Carolina Panthers

Only 3½? That seems crazy, until you remember:

* The Seahawks have the largest homefield advantage in the league. Last season, they were 8-0 at home, 3-5 on the road. Charlotte is a 2,300-mile road trip, and it's West-to-East.

* The Panthers won their last four games of 2012.

* Carolina, more than most teams, had some obvious problems that are easy to address, like streamlining their running-back-by-committee approach.

A Panthers win would represent a substantial upset of an early Super Bowl favorite, but when you look at Seattle's schedule, this is a game you'd circle as one the team might lose. I think the line is just about right.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Detroit Lions

This line surprises me. No one expects Adrian Peterson to rush for 2,100 yards again (with a 6.0 average!), but the Vikings made the playoffs last year, and Detroit went 4-12. The Lions should bounce back somewhat, and Minnesota won't go 10-6 again unless Christian Ponder makes unexpected leaps, but you could make a fair argument that the Vikings should be favored. I don't know what to think about this one.

Oakland Raiders (+7) at Indianapolis Colts

I think the Colts are overrated, and most fans' expectations are too high. They got lucky against an easy schedule in 2012. But the Raiders are pretty awful, so this line isn't completely out of whack. I like the Colts straight up, Raiders to beat the spread. I'm not sold on Andrew Luck yet, and Oakland usually comes to play in Week 1. Indianapolis could be a good first-week selection in suicide pools.

Arizona Cardinals (+6) at St. Louis Rams

The Rams are favored by 6? I know they're playing the Cardinals, and I know they made some nice moves this offseason (Jake Long, Tavon Austin), but they're still the Rams! The Cardinals have a good, underrated defense, and Larry Fitzgerald. He didn't do much last season, but that whole offense was a mess; he didn't go from Hall of Famer to has-been in a year. Cardinals are the pick.

Green Bay Packers (+5½) at San Francisco 49ers

They met in the opener last season, too, and the Niners won by 8. That was in Green Bay. They met again at the end of last season (for the Packers, anyway) and San Francisco won by 14. There's no reason to believe Green Bay has closed to gap since then. I'm staying away from this one. I think the 49ers will win, but 5½ points is a lot against a good team like the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers is dependable in a way Colin Kaepernick might not be.

New York Giants (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

I hate forecasting division rivalries, and that's true most of all in the NFC East. The Giants and Cowboys are both unpredictable. There were times last season when they looked like Super Bowl contenders, and there were times they looked like garbage. Spare yourself the headache and save your cash for other games.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4½) at Washington Redskins

The first of two Monday night games, and another NFC East rivalry game. We don't even know yet who either team will start at quarterback. Well, probably Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III, but there are question marks on both sides. Let's reserve judgment on this one until the start of preseason, at least.

Houston Texans (-3) at San Diego Chargers

The Chargers always seemed to start slow under Norv Turner. Will that trend continue for new head coach Mike McCoy? It will against Houston. I don't understand why everyone is sleeping on the Texans. It'll be a late night, but I think they'll cover the spread. Don't underestimate the impact of Brian Cushing's return. Before his season-ending injury in Week 5, he looked like the best linebacker in the NFL.

* * *

Super Bowl XLVIII Futures

Despite that some of the entries above surely read as betting tips, that's really not how they're intended at this point. Most of the lines won't move much between now and September, and if they do, it will be for a good reason. Stay patient and lay your action when the time is right, if you're into that sort of thing.

But there's a difference between weekly point spreads and futures bets. Super Bowl odds on the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans are both 18-to-1 right now, and that seems like a bargain to me, Houston especially. The Falcons are +1750 at some sites, actually, but that's not a big difference. If you've got some spare cash, you also might be interested in the Bengals at +4500. They went 10-6 last year, and the best team in their division had a fire sale this offseason. I think the Bengals are favorites to win the AFC North, and they're undervalued right now.

Cincinnati made the playoffs, had a good draft, and is a young team that figures to improve, but its Super Bowl odds are about the same (45/1) as two teams that went 4-12 last year (Eagles and Lions, both 50/1). The Chiefs are 50/1, the Dolphins are 50/1, and the Colts are 40/1. Cincinnati has a better shot than all of those teams combined, and +4500 is a bargain. Same thing for Houston at +1800. The Broncos are not three times as likely to win Super Bowl XLVIII as the Texans.

These are bets you know probably won't pay off, but the return is big if they do. Recreational purposes only, but in my extraordinarily humble opinion, Atlanta, Houston, and Cincinnati are all undervalued right now.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:35 PM | Comments (5)

July 8, 2013

A Brave New Association?

Boston, like so many pro towns, abhors the rebuilding cycle. That was never more clear than in 2010 when former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein endured endless public tongue-lashings for calling the upcoming season a "bridge year." It was his clever attempt at taking a knee while giving fans a future to hope for, a reminder that there was indeed something to bridge to, but it became the prominent passage of his legacy that included two World Series championships, Boston's first in 86 years.

Now Celtics President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge is building a bridge of his own, but with only a wisp of promised land on the other side. His alternative? Ride out Coach Doc Rivers and future Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, make the playoffs for two or three more years, and not be known as the guy who broke the party up. Yet there appears to have been a meeting of the minds between Ainge and a fan base who largely remembers a time two decades earlier when a passive front office allowed Father Time to pick at the carcasses of the original Big Three. After the five-year run by the second Big Three that earned the C's their 17th banner, the inevitability of time and mediocrity has settled in.

The permissive air among Ainge's Boston constituency has initially empowered him in his efforts, but this tolerance is tentative at best. Celtics fans have a limited appetite for a long rebuilding campaign. They may like the concept now, but Ainge's leash will be much shorter than those wielded by M.L. Carr and Rick Pitino throughout the 1990s, when a string of lousy seasons produced such venerable lottery picks as Eric Montross, Ron Mercer, and Jerome Moiso.

The call to break up the remnants of Ainge's core was gutsy, especially in a league that typically hangs its kahunas on a peg by the door before leaving on summer vacation. It was also the table-setter for a different kind of Hot Stove this offseason.

NBA free agency periods often have a by-the-books predictability to them. They are the basketball equivalent of the sacrifice bunt. Play it safe and look for the big score. Mostly, players chase the money. Sometimes they chase the coast; Los Angeles and Miami are always sexy destinations, and that can translate into an opportunity cost worth paying.

Three years ago, LeBron James's Decision appeared gutsy. He flew the coup, leaving behind friends, the team he routed on as a kid, and a city that idolized him with ten-story effigies. He incurred the wrath of Cavaliers ownership and the community in which he was raised, not to mention every non-Heat fan in the country, of which there are plenty. Yet, fundamentally, it was the safe choice. He headed for Miami and formed a triumvirate guaranteed to go deep into every postseason. He also got the bucks, compliments of a sign-and-trade that assured him a max contract.

On the other hand, Ray Allen didn't get a max contract. He reportedly took half of what the Celtics were offering and became the first crumbling brick in Ainge's once mighty fortress. Money aside, his decision was as easy as James' two years prior. Again, there's that allure of South Beach, where Allen immediately became part of James' supporting cast. It paid off. He rode the King's coattails to the Finals, then hit the biggest shot of the postseason to secure his — and James' — second ring. In retrospect, it was a slam-dunk.

Contrast those decisions with the one just made by Dwight Howard. Even when he wanted out of Orlando, Howard's body English made it clear he didn't want in on Hollywood, even if everyone else does. The focus last year was on Brooklyn, but when talks between the Magic and Nets broke down, Superman became a reluctant passenger on the next flight to La La Land, where he bucked the prevailing sentiment of the Shaquille O'Neals and Karl Malones of the world who feel it a privilege to play for the Buss family and their money.

Where it would be so easy to stay put among the stars and earn a max contract and occasional movie cameo, Howard has now shaken his sandals of glitter — not to mention Kobe Bryant — to start up a new axis of power in Houston. He did so without commitments from other free agents or the Rockets organization. And as Rondo rumors are centered more on the Rockets' neighbors in Dallas, and former AAU teammate Josh Smith has signed with Detroit, it's clear he's prepared to help build that power with existing resources. A courageous move by NBA free agency standards.

To a lesser degree, so was Smith's. Think about it. He leaves the team on which he'd spent his first nine years, and a coaching staff that left his shot selection unharnessed for that entire duration. Gone will be the warmth of Southern hospitality, replaced by the cold desolation of a destination at the bottom of every free agent's list. Sure, there are 56 million reasons to move on, and no, it doesn't seem as though Atlanta planned on keeping him, even though NBC Sports reported that the Hawks were one of several teams still interested. But anyone who has ever been compelled to make a career change against their better judgment will appreciate Smith's moxie.

Which brings us back to Boston and Danny Ainge.

An agreement in principle is not the same as a buy-in to the specific rebuilding plan, and fans will regard each of Ainge's successive moves with skepticism. His immediate hiring of Brad Stevens to replace Doc Rivers has started that process, but such criticism speaks more to fan ignorance of the circumstances.

Success stories of college coaches in the pros are limited. In Boston, they end with Rick Pitino. It's not surprising that the Stevens hiring is viewed in that same light. The Pitino era was the darkest in Celtics history, as potential succumbed each year to underachievement against the stark backdrop of an egotistical coach and president with a keenly misplaced overzealousness that brought out the worst in everyone. Stevens is carrying the baggage of Pitino's legacy into a no-win situation in trying to mold a plethora of college draft picks into a competitive pro team. One has to wonder if he has that same lump in his throat that Smith must have.

But for Ainge, this is not an against-all-odds act of heroism. Stevens is not being asked to do what was asked of Pitino but rather, of M.L. Carr. In the wake of the original Big Three's breakup, Carr's job was to drive the bus off the road and keep it in the ditch until sufficient draft picks could be acquired or traded, at which time a marquee coach could assume the wheel of rebuilding.

Stevens will do that for up to six years, but more likely only three. his heir-apparent may well be former Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau. The Chicago Bulls head coach is under contract through 2016-17, but tensions have been building in his relationship with GM Gar Forman, who recently fired Thibodeau's top assistant. Thibodeau was a player and fan favorite alike, and could mold Stevens' pieces into a contender in a way Pitino never could.

On its face, this hiring appears to be one more in a string of bold and unpredictable moves this offseason, but in reality, it may be its safest. What better way to accumulate ping-pong balls for the ultimate prize of Andrew Wiggins next year? In today's NBA, it's hard to build a new bridge until you drive off the old one first.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 5:38 PM | Comments (0)

July 5, 2013

Foul Territory: All-American Rejects

* They'll Obviously Have to Rob Peter to Pay Paul — Chris Paul resigned with the Los Angeles Clippers, and is expected to sign a deal worth $108 million over five years. If the Clippers complete their end of the deal, it will likely be the first time the team doesn't "come up short."

* Boston Proper-ty, or Celtics' Fans Won't Be Seeing "Red" — The Boston Celtics hired Butler's Brad Stevens as their new head coach on Wednesday to replace the departed Doc Rivers. Stevens is younger than every other coach in the league, and older than every Celtic on the team.

* This Could Be a New Beginning in the Story of A-Rod, Better Known as a "Bio-Genesis" — Alex Rodriguez went 0-2 for Class A Charleston in his first minor league game on a rehabilitation assignment, it a feat known as "A-Rod's 'A' Sample." The team gave away Rodriguez bobbleheads, which continually shake their heads in denial, to the first 2,000 performance-enhancing drug peddlers.

* There's a "Defect" in the System, or He's a "Marked" Cuban — Philadelphia closer Jonathan Papelbon said it's a "joke" that the Dodgers' Yasiel Puig is being considered for a spot in the MLB All-Star Game. Puig responded by saying that if Papelbon's not careful, he'll be on the receiving end of a "punch" line.

* This Colt is Saddled With Guilt — Indianapolis Colts safety Joe Lefeged was released from jail Tuesday following his arrest on a gun possession charge in Washington, D.C. Despite overwhelming evidence against him, Lefeged vehemently professed his innocence, compared to Aaron Hernandez.

* In Uganda, They Call Him "Eat-y Amin" — Joey Chestnut ate 69 franks Thursday, breaking his own record to win the Nathan's Famous Fourth of July hot dog eating championship. Afterwards, the contents of Chestnut's stomach declared its independence.

* It's From Jay-Z's New Song "10% Cut," or Agent Z-ero — Jay-Z took a jab at super-agent Scott Boras on the rapper's new album, boasting that he took Boras' client, Robinson Cano, from Boras. Boras replied that he doesn't rap, but can still "represent."

* They Call 'Em Like They Screen 'Em — Major League Umpire Brian Runge was dismissed from duty after failing a drug test. When asked if they were sure of the decision, MLB replied, "We're positive."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:58 PM | Comments (0)

July 4, 2013

USA U-19 Team Offers a Glimpse Into Future

Normally, July is about as dead as dead gets for the average college basketball fan. Sure, coaches are out recruiting full force and the Dave Teleps of the world are busy telling those who will listen about the next big thing out of the LeBron James Skill Academy or one of the Vegas camps, but that's a little like a baseball fan knowing who the star shortstop is at AA. Sure, it's pertinent information, but it's a little deeper than most people are willing to go. For the most part, summer is the college hoops Sahara, with barely a glimmer of an oasis on the distant horizon when practice starts up this fall.

There is one spot of real college basketball news right now, though — the Under-19 USA team currently competing at the World Championships in the Czech Republic. With a team comprised of current and very-soon-to-be college stars, college hoops junkies have a chance now to get a preview of the guys who will likely take a starring turn next March — or perhaps March 2015 or 2016.

Take for instance last year's U-18 team that won the World Championship in Brazil. That team was led by Julius Randle, now headed to Kentucky as the top player in the most heralded recruiting class since Michigan's Fab Five. Also on the team: Montrezl Harrell, last seen cutting down the nets as a key reserve for the National Champion Louisville Cardinals; Rasheed Sulaimon, who averaged double-digits as a freshman during Duke's Elite Eight run last season; and Marcus Smart, a Sporting News first-team All-American who could have been a NBA draft lottery pick after averaging more than 15 points per game during his freshman season at Oklahoma State.

This year's U-19 team, undefeated at 5-0 through Tuesday's action, includes several holdovers from last year's U-18 team, including Harrell, Sulaimon and Smart. But though Randle isn't back, there are some other major talents on the roster that you will know if you don't already:

Aaron Gordon: The incoming (likely one-and-done) freshman for Sean Miller at Arizona has been the leading scorer (14 ppg) and second-leading rebounder (6.4 rpg) so far for the U-19 team. Despite a returning cast that includes several high-profile big men from the 2012 class (Kaleb Tarczewski, Brandon Ashley), plus holdover Nick Johnson and senior transfer point guard T.J. McConnell, Gordon is the primary reason you can expect to see the Wildcats in preseason top-five lists in a couple of months.

Justise Winslow: Currently the No. 15-ranked recruit for the class of 2014, Winslow is the second-leading scorer (11.8 ppg) and leading rebounder (7 rpg) on the U19 team. With offers from Arizona, Kansas, Duke, Florida, and North Carolina (among others), Winslow, a small forward from Houston, is a name you will hear a great deal more over the next couple of years.

And of course, you can't have an article on the U-19 team without mentioning Jahlil Okafor, the No. 1 recruit for the class of 2014. The 6-foot-10, 265 lb. high school senior from Chicago is averaging over 11 points and five rebounds in just 14 minutes per game so far in the World Championships. Arizona is also in on Okafor, as are Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, Michigan State, and Ohio State.

U19 head coach Billy Donovan (Florida), plus assistants Shaka Smart (VCU) and Tony Bennett (Virginia), have made a point to not just load the roster with stars (and star egos). Along with the high-profile recruits and budding NBA draft lottery tickets, the roster is filled out with bangers Jarnell Stokes (second-leading rebounder in the SEC as a junior at Tennessee last season) and Mike Tobey (6-11 sophomore at Virginia), hard-nosed defender Elfrid Payton (led Sun Belt in steals as sophomore at Louisiana-Lafayette last season), and quality depth on the perimeter with James Robinson (sophomore at Pittsburgh), Nigel Williams-Goss (incoming freshman at Washington and biggest surprise contributor on the roster) and Michael Frazier II (sophomore at Florida).

So if you happen to find yourself depressed there's no college basketball on this weekend, don't lower yourself to the level of the NBA Summer League. Just find your way over to FIBA.com. It'll cost you a few bucks, but hey, it's America's weekend. How better to cap off the Fourth of July than by watching some of the nation's best young hoops stars dominate the world?

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 9:19 AM | Comments (0)

July 3, 2013

Five Predictions For MLB's Second Half

If you recall a column I wrote around this time last year, you might remember Casey Stengel visiting me in a dream with five predictions for the second half of the 2012 baseball season. Ol' Case actually did pretty well.

Some of the details were a little off, but three of the five predictions actually happened, which gave him a .600 average — Hall of Fame numbers. To recap the prognostications he got right, he said the Dodgers would miss the playoffs, two AL East teams would finish below .500 and that Jim Thome would retire. The two that he missed were no more no-hitters after the Matt Cain perfect game (there were two more, including a second perfecto), and Texas winning the World Series (they were knocked out of the playoffs in the wild card round).

Well, Casey opted not to visit me again this year, but after receiving such spot-on wisdom from the genius, I figured I could come up with some predictions of my own. So, without delay, here are my five predictions for the second half of the Major League Baseball season.

1) Homer Bailey will not throw another no-hitter this year. Okay, so this one may be an easy one, but when one takes into account that he threw the last no-no of 2012 and the first one this year on Tuesday, it seems like he's on a roll and could toss another one. I say, "Nay." In fact, at this juncture of the season, there might be only one or two more no-hitters thrown, but Bailey won't be among those to do it.

2) No Triple Crown repeat for Miguel Cabrera. This one I'm a little nervous about since Cabrera currently leads the American League in hitting and RBI, and is only five behind Baltimore's Chris Davis in home runs. However, here's the kicker: Davis is currently second in the league in hitting and RBI and could easily overtake Cabrera in both — well, not quite easily in batting average since he's nearly 40 points behind. But if Miggy hits a bad slump, Davis could become the Triple Crown winner this year. How cool would that be?

3) Pittsburgh will miss the postseason — again. Last year at this time, the Pirates were only a game out of first place in the NL Central and looked poised to cinch a wild card spot if they could keep up the good play. But not even an MVP performance from Andrew McCutchen could keep them afloat. Pittsburgh has a miserable reputation for starting fast and finishing slow, and this year won't be any different despite having the best record in baseball currently.

4) Clayton Kershaw will lead the bigs in ERA and innings pitched, but will have a losing record. All right, this one might be a no-brainer as well as Kershaw already has the lowest ERA of all MLB hurlers and has thrown more innings than anyone else, but his record is a meager 7-5. With the Dodgers having a lack of offensive firepower despite having an all-star lineup, Kershaw will continue to pitch gobs of innings without giving up many runs, but still lose games because his team can't score.

5) The Giants will make the postseason, despite being in the NL West basement today. This final prediction might be a bold one, but the defending World Series champions are only three games out of first place in the weak NL West and could easily get hot down the stretch and win the division. Odds are they won't get past the wild card round in the playoffs since they've been struggling mightily all year, but they still have a legitimate shot at taking the division and playing in October.

Well, there you have it. If I can do as good as Casey Stengel's ghost did last year, I'll feel pretty good about my baseball IQ. If I don't, I might have to hold a séance next year to get some better predictions.

Posted by Adam Russell at 4:59 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth's gamble to take no tires during pits stops on the final caution paid off handsomely, as he collected his fourth win of the year with a win at Kentucky. He is now fifth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 82 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"We took the lead in the pits," Kenseth said. "That's become something in which we specialize — winning without passing; only this time, it's got nothing to do with an inspection.

"The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota was strong in clean air. And the state of Kentucky offers an abundance of it, except at the Mayfield compound, where the air is a thick as the heads."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson's spin while leading on the race's final restart likely cost him the win, as he finished ninth after charging back from 25th. It was the latest in a rash of faulty restarts that may have cost him two wins.

"Apparently," Johnson said, "I've got a mental block when it comes to restarts. That makes me mentally restarted.

"But I'm not worried. My resume speaks for itself. Not only do I 'fall back' on restarts, I fall back on five Sprint Cup championships."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished 10th in the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky, posting his ninth top-10 finish of the season. He is fourth in the point standings, 66 out of first.

"I'm well within striking distance," Harvick said. "I would say I'm 'right where I want to be,' but that would be false, because I'm still with Richard Childress Racing."

4. Carl Edwards — Edwards posted a 21st in the Quaker State 400, leading 35 laps before becoming mired in traffic and fading towards the end. Edwards remained second in the Sprint Cup point standings and trails Jimmie Johnson by 38.

"The No. 99 Ford was sporting UPS sponsorship on Sunday," Edwards said. "Unfortunately, it drove like a big, brown truck in the last 30 laps.

"Congratulations are in order for Matt Kenseth. His four wins this year prove that he can run away from the field just as well as he can run away from me."

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — After starting on the pole, Earnhardt's No. 88 Chevy was damaged by the remnants of Denny Hamlin's blown tire on lap 38. Earnhardt spent much of the next 100 laps in and out of the pits for repairs, and eventually finished 12th.

"We made 'something out of nothing,'" Earnhardt said. "The people of Junior Nation have a wealth of experience in making 'something out of nothing,' because they are still able to get excited about what is sure to be another Cup-less season."

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished third at Kentucky, posting his sixth top-five result of the year. He is third in the Sprint Cup point standings and still in search of his first win of the season.

"A win this season has been as elusive as Jeff Gordon last year at Phoenix," Bowyer said. "The wins will come. We've been solid all year. In fact, I've only got one DNF this year, so, for the most part, I've been much like Gordon — still running."

"On another note, Kyle Petty said Danica Patrick was not a 'race car driver. Danica responded by saying she is a woman and a driver. Likewise, she said Petty can also be two things at once—a son of a 'King' and a son of a bitch."

7. Kyle Busch — Busch recovered from an early spin to finish fifth in the Quaker State 400, his eighth top-five of the year. He is now seventh in the point standings, 110 out of first.

"Kentucky's John Calipari drove the pace car for Sunday's race," Busch said. "I think he completed only one lap and then called it quits, thus another 'one and done' in Kentucky."

8. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex backed up his win at Sonoma with a seventh in the Quaker State 400. The result boosted him two places in the point standings to eighth, 120 out of first.

"A win at Sonoma followed by a top-10 at Kentucky," Truex said. "That's like going from wine to whiskey without missing a beat, something that NASCAR great Tim Richmond probably did better than anyone."

9. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski's day ended early at Kentucky when Kurt Busch's No. 78 car slid up and into the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge on lap 151. Keselowski's spinning car collected Greg Biffle's No. 16, essentially ending the day for both cars. Keselowski was credited with a 33rd-place finish and tumbled four spots in the point standings.

"Busch may drive the Furniture Row car," Keselowski said, "but there's no 'couching' his recklessness. I'm sure there are many other drivers who would agree with me, enough to form a committee, in fact, of which I'd happily 'chair.' With that being said, what's more likely? Furniture Row making a 'chaise,' or me making the 'Chase?'"

10. Joey Logano — Logano finished fourth at Kentucky, posting his fifth top-five result of the year. He is 10th in the Sprint Cup point standings, 131 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Penske Racing drivers are earning a reputation of running others out of the Chase," Logano said. "I ran Denny Hamlin out, and Brad Keselowski is running himself out."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:33 PM | Comments (0)

July 2, 2013

Best Teams Not to Win the Super Bowl: NFC

I'm interested in losers. Our sports culture focuses on winners, to the point that we forget about those who fell short. Twenty years from now, will anyone but home fans and die-hards remember last season's 13-3 Broncos and Falcons, or the Houston Texans, who started 11-1? Will fans recall the 2011 Green Bay Packers as a great team who had a bad week at the worst possible time, or as just another good team that wasn't good enough?

This is the second article in a two-part series, looking at every current NFL franchise and picking out its best team of the Super Bowl era that did not win a championship. Last month, we looked at AFC teams, and this week, we'll wrap up with the NFC. Teams are sorted alphabetically within their divisions.

1986 Chicago Bears
14-2, outscored opponents 352-187; lost divisional playoff

This defense allowed fewer yards and fewer points than the famous 1985 Bears, holding 10 opponents to 10 points or less. Walter Payton was still among the most productive RBs in the NFL, with 1,333 rushing yards, plus another 382 receiving and 11 total touchdowns. The Bears actually rushed for nearly twice as much yardage (2,700) as their opponents (1,463), and kicker Kevin Butler led the NFC in scoring.

The Bears also passed for more yardage (2,759) than they allowed (2,667) and scored nearly twice as many TDs (38) as they gave up (20). They sacked opposing QBs 62 times, compared to 24 sacks taken by Chicago QBs. My favorite statistic goes back to rushing: the Bears gained 166 first downs with their ground game, compared to just 67 for opponents — that's a difference of 99 rushing first downs.

Runner-up — 2006: 13-3, outscored opp. 427-255; lost Super Bowl XLI

Brilliant defense led by Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, and Tommie Harris, plus 6 return TDs by Devin Hester.

1970 Detroit Lions
10-4, outscored opponents 347-202; lost divisional playoff

Through most of the 1950s and 1960s, the Lions had a strong defense led by an exceptional secondary. In 1970, future Hall of Fame DBs Dick LeBeau and Lem Barney joined old lions Alex Karras and Wayne Walker on a defense that nearly rivaled Minnesota's legendary Purple Gang. Detroit led the NFL in rush defense, and opponents averaged just 3.2 yards per carry. Even in its playoff loss to the Cowboys, the defense yielded only 3 points, when a Lions turnover at midfield set up a field goal. Despite a tremendous defensive performance against a powerful offense, the Lions lost 5-0.

Detroit's offense was better than it showed in that loss, though, scoring the second-most points in the NFL. Quarterback Greg Landry and running back Mel Farr had their moments, but the unquestioned star was Hall of Fame tight end Charlie Sanders, a consensus All-Pro. Landry, who took over for Bill Munson halfway through the season, was a great scrambler whose 76-yard run was the longest of the year in the NFC.

Runner-up — 1969: 9-4-1, outscored opp. 259-188; missed playoffs

The 1991 Lions went 12-4 and reached the NFC Championship Game, but they weren't really an exceptional team. Barry Sanders doesn't single-handedly compensate for a defense.

2011 Green Bay Packers
15-1, outscored opponents 560-359; lost divisional playoff

The Packers went 15-1 and outscored their opponents by over 200 points. That's really all you need to know this was a great team. But this didn't happen against a cupcake schedule. Six of the Packers' 15 wins came against playoff teams, including a Week 17 win over the Lions when Green Bay had already secured the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Packers rested their stars, but backup QB Matt Flynn set franchise records for passing yardage (480) and TDs (6), and Green Bay's B-Team defeated a playoff team.

Aaron Rodgers was named NFL MVP almost unanimously (48/50 votes) after he broke the single-season record for passer rating (122.5). Rodgers passed for 45 touchdowns and rushed for another 3, with only 6 interceptions and no lost fumbles. That's six times as many TDs as turnovers, a +42 differential. Unfortunately, the time off in Week 17 and the first-round bye appeared to make Green Bay rusty, as the team looked out of sync for its playoff loss to the Giants. Three different announcers at FOX said something to the effect that Green Bay wasn't the same team we'd been watching all season. It was a huge disappointment for a team that had dominated all season, even against strong opponents.

Runner-up — 1997: 13-3, outscored opp. 422-282; lost Super Bowl XXXII

One year after their superb '96 team won Super Bowl XXXI, the Packers won both their playoff games by double-digits and were two-touchdown favorites against Denver.

1969 Minnesota Vikings
12-2, outscored opponents 379-133; lost Super Bowl IV

The '69 Vikings allowed fewer than 10 points per game and scored nearly triple what they gave up. The offense was good, as Minnesota led both the NFL and AFL in scoring, but the heart of the team was its defense, which featured Hall of Famers Alan Page, Paul Krause, and Carl Eller. The Viking defense was the NFL's best by nearly 1,000 yards. In the playoffs, Minnesota defeated the 11-3 Rams, then breezed by Cleveland in the NFL Championship Game, going up 27-0 before the Browns scored a late touchdown to spoil the shutout.

On Super Bowl Sunday, however, turnovers and a physical Chiefs team ended Minnesota's season in disappointment. The defense held up its end of the bargain, not allowing a touchdown drive until late in the third quarter. But the offense, which thrived on an excellent line and strong ground game, was beaten at its strength, getting overpowered on the line and netting just 239 yards. The Vikings went on to become a losing dynasty, with four Super Bowl defeats in less than a decade.

Runner-up — 1998: 15-1, outscored opp. 556-296; lost NFC Championship Game

Fourth-highest margin of victory since the AFL merger (16.3 ppg), 15-1 record, weird overtime loss to the Falcons when it mattered most.

2012 Atlanta Falcons
13-3, outscored opponents 419-299; lost NFC Championship Game

Atlanta also went 13-3 two years earlier, but I chose this team for two reasons. One is that it won a playoff game, while the 2010 Falcons lost in the divisional round to Green Bay. The other is pass offense. The earlier team had a better running game and perhaps a slightly better defense. But for 2012, Atlanta had a mature Matt Ryan at the height of his powers, and a mostly healthy Julio Jones as an additional weapon to terrorize defenses.

I prefer the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan teams over Dan Reeves' 1998 Super Bowl team mostly for consistency. The '98 Falcons were a one-year wonder, the franchise's only winning season between 1995-2002. With Smith and Ryan on board, the Falcons have had a winning record every year and made the playoffs four times in five seasons. Everything came together in '98, but there's a lot more talent on the current team.

Runner-up — 1998: 14-2, outscored opp. 442-289; lost Super Bowl XXXIII

Honestly, the 2010 team was probably better, but this is the only Super Bowl team in Falcons history, and its point differential of +153 is the best in franchise history.

2008 Carolina Panthers
12-4, outscored opponents 414-329; lost divisional playoff

Carolina was 8-0 at home, outscoring opponents 234-111. That includes victories against two playoff teams, another two wins against non-playoff teams with winning records, and a 34-0 shutout of Kansas City.

On the road, the Panthers went 4-4 and got outscored 218-180. That includes a 1-3 record against playoff teams, with the win a 2-point nail-biter in Week 1. Basically, you've got a team that was great in home games, incredible really, but probably a little below average on the road. So it's a bit startling that Carolina's decisive 33-13 playoff loss to the Cardinals — a team they'd beaten during the regular season — came in Charlotte. Jake Delhomme committed six turnovers and Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald hauled in 8 receptions for 166 yards and a TD.

Carolina had talent. DeAngelo Williams rushed for 1,500 yards and scored 20 TDs. Steve Smith averaged 18.2 yards per reception and gained over 1,400 yards. Julius Peppers posted a career-high 14.5 sacks. Jordan Gross and Jon Beason made the All-Pro team. If you put Cam Newton in a time machine and sent him back to replace Delhomme, I think there's a good chance the Panthers would have reached the Super Bowl.

Runner-up — 2005: 11-5, outscored opp. 391-259; lost NFC Championship Game

By far the best point differential in club history. Two years earlier, the 2003 Panthers got hot in the playoffs, but that wasn't a great team, Super Bowl or not.

2011 New Orleans Saints
13-3, outscored opponents 547-339; lost divisional playoff

When I was growing up, the Saints were a joke. Sometimes a team is bad long enough that it becomes known for losing. Casual fans know it, late-night TV hosts joke about it, even your mom who doesn't care about sports is vaguely aware of it. For about two decades, that was the Saints. From 1967-85, New Orleans went 83-187-5 (.311) and never had a winning season.

Jim Mora changed that. Under his leadership, the Saints made the playoffs four times. Then the team got terrible again, with only one playoff appearance from 1993-2005. Since Sean Payton came on as head coach, New Orleans is a perennial playoff contender, and most of the team's best seasons are from the last seven years. The 2011 Saints set all-time single-season records for yards per game (467.1, shattering a 50-year-old record), first downs (416), and passing yards (5,347). In their first playoff game, they set a postseason record for offensive yardage (626) and didn't punt all game.

Runner-up — 1991: 11-5, outscored opp. 341-211; lost wild card playoff

First team in franchise history to win a division title, led by a historic defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL.

2000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10-6, outscored opponents 388-269; lost wild card playoff

When I was growing up, the Buccaneers were a joke. Sometimes a team is bad long enough that it becomes known for losing. Casual fans know it, late-night TV hosts joke about it, even your mom who doesn't care about sports is vaguely aware of it. For about two decades, that was the Bucs. From 1983-96, Tampa Bay went 64-159 (.287) and never had a winning season.

Tony Dungy changed that. Under his leadership, the Bucs made the playoffs four times. The team was up-and-down under Jon Gruden, and mostly down since Gruden's firing prior to the 2009 season. Apart from a trio of playoff appearances between 1979-82, all of the team's good seasons came with either Dungy or Gruden at the helm. There are two teams in Buccaneer history that outscored their opponents by more than 64. The 2002 Super Bowl champions were +150, and the 2000 Bucs were +119, nearly double the next contender.

Tampa had an okay offense, with Mike Alstott, Keyshawn Johnson, and one-year wonder QB Shaun King, but the standout was Warrick Dunn, having his best season as a Buccaneer (1,133 rushing yards, 422 receiving yards, 9 TDs). Even kicker Martin Gramatica had a Pro Bowl season. Of course, the team's real strength was its defense. Derrick Brooks, John Lynch, and Warren Sapp were first-team All-Pro, and CB Donnie Abraham made the Pro Bowl on the strength of 7 INTs. Marcus Jones had 13.5 sacks, and Ronde Barber finished with 5.5 sacks and 2 return TDs.

The 2000 Bucs played in one of my all-time favorite games, on December 18, 2000. Playing against the Greatest Show on Turf Rams on Monday Night Football, the Bucs pulled out a dramatic 38-35 victory. The signature play came in the fourth quarter, with Tampa trailing 35-31 and under 2:00 left. Dunn got wrapped up on a short pass in the backfield, but he lateralled to King, who eluded several defenders and sprinted for a first down. A late hit out of bounds made the play a 35-yard gain, and set up the winning touchdown.

Runner-up — 2001: 9-7, outscored opp. 324-280; lost wild card playoff

Basically the same team, but with Brad Johnson at quarterback and Simeon Rice added to the defense.

1978 Dallas Cowboys
12-4, outscored opponents 384-208; lost Super Bowl XIII

Until the last few years, Super Bowl XIII was widely regarded as the best ever. It featured two legendary dynasties, the Steel Curtain and the "America's Team"-era Cowboys, who had nine Pro Bowlers in 1978. Captain Comeback, Roger Staubach, staged a late rally that fell barely short and made the Super Bowl final 35-31.

During the regular season, Dallas led the NFL in scoring and offensive yardage, ranking second in total defense and third in points allowed. After a first-round bye in the playoffs, the Cowboys beat Atlanta despite a late hit that knocked Staubach out of the game. The next week, with Staubach back in the lineup, the defending champs served notice with a 28-0 rout against the Rams. Ultimately clashing with one of the best teams in football history, Dallas established itself as one of the greatest contenders not to win it all.

Runner-up — 1994: 12-4, outscored opp. 414-248; lost NFC Championship Game

The middle of their '90s dynasty, the only year from 1992-95 that they didn't win a Super Bowl.

2008 New York Giants
12-4, outscored opponents 427-294; lost divisional playoff

The year after their victory in Super Bowl XLII, everything was meshing for the Giants. It is the only season of Eli Manning's career so far in which he threw twice as many TDs (21) as INTs (10), and the Giants' running game of Earth, Wind, and Fire produced nearly 2,500 yards. Brandon Jacobs (1,089 yds, 15 TD) and Derrick Ward (1,025 yds, 5.6 avg) both had the best seasons of their careers, while Ahmad Bradshaw (355 yds, 5.3 avg) was just coming into his own. Defensively, the unquestioned star was All-Pro defensive lineman Justin Tuck, who recorded a career-high 12 sacks and an interception return for a touchdown.

Fresh off their Super Bowl win, the Giants started the season 11-1, with wins over four playoff teams (including both Super Bowl representatives). In the last month of the season, though, their success unraveled. Plaxico Burress accidentally shot himself and went to jail, while Tuck seemed to wear down, with only 0.5 sack in the last four games. New York lost three of those four games, a cold streak that extended to 1-for-5 when the team lost to Philadelphia in its first playoff game. The '07 Giants got hot at the right time; the '08 Giants got cold at the wrong time.

Runner-up — 1989: 12-4, outscored opp. 348-252; lost divisional playoff

One year before they won Super Bowl XXV, an overtime loss knocked the Giants out of the playoffs. Remember, we're only looking at the Super Bowl era, so the old Y.A. Tittle / Frank Gifford teams aren't eligible.

1980 Philadelphia Eagles
12-4, outscored opponents 384-222; lost Super Bowl XV

The culmination of Dick Vermeil's rebuilding project, the 1980 Eagles led the NFL in scoring defense and point differential. Quarterback Ron Jaworski was first-team All-NFC, and Wilbert Montgomery was brilliant when healthy, but this team's foundation was its defense. There were stars, like LB Bill Bergey and DE Claude Humphrey, but mostly the unit was led by players with a shorter window of greatness: guys like Herman Edwards, Carl Hairston, Charlie Johnson, Randy Logan, and Jerry Robinson. The standout probably was Johnson, a nose tackle who made his third straight Pro Bowl after intercepting three passes in the regular season.

Even without obvious superstars, the Eagles had a roster full of good players, and there's little question they were the best team in the NFL. They won their first three games by a combined score of 104-16. They beat the Raiders and took two of three from the Cowboys. Philadelphia took its foot off the gas pedal at the end of the regular season, losing three of its last four after an 11-1 start, but rebounded to win two playoff games and reach the Super Bowl. Sometimes good teams have a bad day at the wrong time, and Oakland won the rematch, 27-10.

Runner-up — 1992: 11-5, outscored opp. 354-245; lost divisional playoff

The '81 Eagles were pretty much the same team as the year before, and the Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb Eagles dominated a rebuilding NFC, but with a dominant defense and a healthy Randall Cunningham, this might be Philly's 2nd-strongest team in the Super Bowl era.

1983 Washington Redskins
14-2, outscored opponents 541-332; lost Super Bowl XVIII

To this day, players and coaches from the Joe Gibbs dynasty insist that their best team was the one that lost Super Bowl XVIII to the Raiders. The defending champs went 14-2, both of their losses coming by a single point. They won their first playoff game 51-7 and beat Joe Montana's 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

Washington's success was founded on a historic offense, the first NFL team ever to top 500 points in a season. Joe Theismann was named NFL MVP and John Riggins set the single-season touchdown record. The team lit up scoreboards despite a conservative offense and a coach who didn't believe in running up the score. Alone among the NFL's highest-scoring offenses, Washington ran more than any other team in the league (629 att).

The offense was uniquely successful, but Washington's defense was great, too: it led the league in rushing defense and interceptions, with the 2nd-highest takeaway total (61) in NFL history. This team was +43 in turnovers, the best mark ever. After finishing two points away from an undefeated regular season, Washington suffered an upset Super Bowl loss against a Raider team it had beaten earlier in the year.

Runner-up — 1972: 11-3, outscored opp. 336-218; lost Super Bowl VII

The 1974 team was probably a little better, but this version won a pair of playoff games, and RB Larry Brown was named NFL MVP.

1975 St. Louis Cardinals
11-3, outscored opponents 356-276; lost divisional playoff

Here's the thing. Do you know how many times the Cardinals have made the playoffs in the 47 seasons the Super Bowl has been played? Six. That includes the 5-4 Cardinals in 1982, plus two 9-7 teams that were probably below average and only qualified because they played weak schedules. Teams like the Cowboys and 49ers, you're just trying to narrow down which squads to exclude. With the Cardinals, teams that didn't even make the postseason deserve real consideration as the best of the last 50 years.

From a talent standpoint, I like Don Coryell's 1974-76 teams, all of which won double-digit games in 14-game seasons. In '75, the Cardinals won the NFC East, ahead of the Super Bowl X Cowboys (10-4). The St. Louis offense was comprised of explosive playmakers: Jim Hart, Terry Metcalf, Jim Otis, Mel Gray, and Jackie Smith, with all except Smith (who missed five games) making the Pro Bowl. Three offensive linemen also played in the Pro Bowl: Dan Dierdorf, Conrad Dobler, and center Tom Banks. The defense, while less impressive, did feature Hall of Famer Roger Wehrli, in an All-Pro year with 10 takeaways (6 INT, 4 FR).

Runner-up — 1974: 10-4, outscored opp. 285-218; lost divisional playoff

Ken Whisenhunt's two playoff teams (2008-09) beat up on the NFC West when that meant nothing. They couldn't reliably hold leads because of an inconsistent defense and non-existent run game. I think the Cardinals were better in the Coryell era.

2001 St. Louis Rams
14-2, outscored opponents 503-273; lost Super Bowl XXXVI

Blasted through the regular season with the league's best offense and a solid defense coordinated by Lovie Smith. Led by All-Pros Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk, the Rams finished first in total offense and became the eighth team in history to score more than 500 points in a season. The only problem was Warner's tendency to throw interceptions, but he made up for it with the second-most passing yards in league history.

The playoffs opened with a 45-17 romp over 12-4 Green Bay, in which the Rams intercepted Brett Favre six times. St. Louis entered the Super Bowl as prohibitive favorites, but ran into the NFL's hottest team, the New England Patriots. Warner threw for 365 yards, but with two costly interceptions, and the defense couldn't stop New England's game-winning drive with a minute and a half remaining in the fourth quarter.

It was a turning point for both teams. The Patriots' 20-17 victory was the first step in establishing them as the best team of the new millennium, while the Rams' defeat ended their brief run as football royalty and marked Warner's last full season in St. Louis.

Runner-up — 1973: 12-2, outscored opp. 388-178; lost divisional playoff

Completely overhauled the 6-7-1 '72 team by bringing in Chuck Knox, John Hadl, Lawrence McCutcheon, and Harold Jackson. Doubled their win total, in the first of eight straight playoff seasons.

1992 San Francisco 49ers
14-2, outscored opponents 431-236; lost NFC Championship Game

Steve Young led the NFL in passing TDs and passer rating, with another 537 yards and 4 TDs on the ground, en route to his first NFL MVP Award. Young was one of seven players from San Francisco's offense selected to the Pro Bowl and/or the All-Pro team, joining Ricky Watters, Jerry Rice, Brent Jones, and three of the team's five offensive linemen. The only offensive players left out were Tom Rathman (9 TDs, but there was no roster spot for fullbacks in the Pro Bowl at that time), John Taylor (Super Bowl XXIII hero), Jesse Sapolu (who made each of the next two Pro Bowls), and right guard Roy Foster. The weakest link on Mike Shanahan's offense was a 10-year veteran, former first-round draft pick, two-time Pro Bowler who started all 16 games.

San Francisco's defense ranked 3rd in fewest points allowed, led by Bill Romanowski and the DE tandem of Tim Harris (17 sacks) and Pierce Holt (Pro Bowl). The 49ers went 5-1 against playoff teams, including a sweep of the Saints, who were 12-2 in their other games. The Niners beat the Falcons (who made the playoffs the year before) by a combined total of 97-20. In the playoffs, they knocked out defending champion Washington before a 30-20 loss to Dallas in the NFC Championship Game.

Runner-up — 1998: 12-4, outscored opp. 479-328; lost divisional playoff

Young set career-highs for yardage and TDs and Garrison Hearst rushed for 1,570 yards in the last season before the team rebuilt with Steve Mariucci and Jeff Garcia.

2012 Seattle Seahawks
11-5, outscored opponents 412-245; lost divisional playoff

I hate choosing teams when there are three obvious standouts, because I'm only honoring two per franchise. For Seattle, you've got three successful teams from three distinct eras: Chuck Knox's 12-4 1984 Seahawks with Dave Krieg, Steve Largent, and Kenny Easley; Mike Holmgren's 13-3 2005 team with Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, and a great offensive line; and Pete Carroll's team last year, with Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and the NFL's top scoring defense.

Wilson got better and better as the season progressed, and Lynch rushed for 1,590 yards, but outstanding defense ultimately set Seattle apart, and nearly carried the team to a Super Bowl appearance. A slow start sent Seattle on the road in the postseason, a colossal factor for the team with the longest road trips and largest homefield advantage in the NFL.

Runner-up — 2005: 13-3, outscored opp. 452-271; lost Super Bowl XL

Easily the best team in the NFC, at a time when that meant almost nothing.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:03 AM | Comments (2)

July 1, 2013

Let Me Have the Frenzy, To Go

I don't know if I've ever seen such a whirlwind of an NBA offseason. Granted, I haven't really been around for too many of them. But what has happened from the moment the Heat grabbed their second consecutive title until now, it seems we've had a headline a day (or close to it).

And here comes what could be the wildest roller coaster of the summer leaves the turnstile. At 12:01 AM ET Monday morning, the 2013 version of free agency will get underway. Over the few weeks, teams will try fill needs into systems and fitting contracts into soft caps. Of course, this isn't new. It goes on every year. And this year doesn't have as much anticipation as in previous summers.

But, even though the 2010 edition was much more star-driven, on the back end of a dizzying coaching carousel (that isn't over), a Celtic dismantling (that might not be over), and a confusing draft (which has yet to settle), this year's rendition might serve as the perfect amount of chaos to keep things in check.

The biggest player heading into free agency could have been Chris Paul, but the Clippers' acquisition of Doc Rivers appears to have put the point guard's mind at ease. Reports from Saturday night are keeping Paul in Los Angeles. Him staying means the largest puzzle piece to add, by far, is Dwight Howard.

I know. I know.

We're all sick of the Howard sweepstakes. We've been sick of it for more than a year. He should have had the perfect setup when he was traded to the Lakers. Guess even the mighty aura of the Purple and Gold can't escape the reality of the one-year rental. From all the indications, Howard's eyeing Texas as his next destination. This is where it gets interesting. What will the Rockets and Mavericks really do to try and land the presumed best center in the Association?

The itinerary of D12 may eventually hold the answer to the most powerful question of the offseason. However, it's not the only question that needs an answer by the time training camp rolls around.

Another thing I'd like to know concerns the team that ends up with the most change. The recent changes might have Boston "looking" more contrary to what they were this season. But the Celtics don't have free agents to give away (the only one is Chris Wilcox). As far as the leading candidate to see their players float away, that could be Atlanta. The Hawks get to deal with 7 unrestricted FAs (including Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, and Devin Harris), 2 restricted FAs, and a new head coach.

The Mavs offer the same number of "prospects" (7 UFAs and 2 RFA, even though Shawn Marion only triggers it through an early termination option). The good news, that's a nice bit of money coming off the books. Bad news ... that doesn't leave a lot of assets for the team to trade for Rajon Rondo.

A third team that might look fairly different next season will probably be the Jazz. The inner core of the team (Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap) is part of a package of 7 UFAs that could drastically alter the makeup of a team that thinks it has drafted its franchise point guard. How much of their playoff-ready roster is the front office willing to let go of? And which teams might benefit from an all-star caliber presence?

As always, the free agency period is a free-for-all that won't show its complete worth until we get into the next season. However, such a confounding offseason, to this point, should leave us with a lot to look forward to when the dollars start flying.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:54 PM | Comments (0)

Mad Max, Chasing Face?

Finishing off the Yankees in last fall's American League Championship Series, and mounting a splendid regular season otherwise, made Max Scherzer a feel-good story considering he'd had to shake off his brother's suicide earlier in the season. This season, winning 12without a loss at this writing, Scherzer's more than a feel-good story, he's almost the story for the otherwise Al Central-leading Tigers.

Considering the Tigers have had their share of fielding problems (as of June 26, only the Minnesota Twins and the Houston Astros turned balls in play into outs at a lower rate), Scherzer may be pitching in a little luck. And he knows it. "All I thought about is winning today. My personal record is more a reflection of the team," he told reporters after beating the Rays Friday night. "I don't get caught up in the win-loss record, because it's kind of fluky. Doug (Fister) goes seven innings, one run and gets a no-decision. I go six and (give up) three and get a win. So that's why it's a fluky stat."

Scherzer may not fool himself that he alone is responsible for the company in which he's traveling now, which may be one reason why the Tigers seem to have no problem making sure he doesn't lose thus far. But Scherzer is enough of a baseball historian to know his terrain, and its unlikelihood, no matter how good the pitcher or his team behind him.

Thirteen pitchers including Scherzer have opened seasons at 11-0 or better, beginning with Tom Zachary, a swingman on the 1929 Yankees at 12-0. For this discussion's purpose, I'll define a swingman as a pitcher who appears in relief in half or almost half his season's assignments. Roger Moret (1973 Red Sox: 11-0 to open) pitched in exactly half his games in relief that season. Dennis Lamp (1985 Blue Jays: 11-0 to open) was a former starter working middle relief. Nine pitchers on the roll were pure starters, and one of them (Roger Clemens) pulled it off twice, including his breakout 1986 in which he opened 14-0.

The one relief pitcher on the roll is Elroy Face, the longtime Pittsburgh Pirates relief maestro whose money pitch was a forkball taught him by one-time Yankee relief standout Joe Page. The grip made you wonder how Face threw it for so many years (17 major league seasons) without splitting his pitching hand in half. In fact, after he became the first relief pitcher to save three games in a single World Series (1960), he was invited aboard The Ed Sullivan Show to discuss and demonstrate the pitch, a precursor to the split-finger fastball.

Face opened 1959 with a staggering 17-0 won-loss record and finished the season 18-1 with 10 saves (awarded retroactively, of course) and the National League's winning percentage championship. Look on the surface and Face's accomplishment is nothing short of surrealistic. How the hell did he pull it off? Here's the skinny on all 17 of those 1959 wins before he incurred his only loss of the season. For better or worse, alas, you look deeper and realize that Face in 1959, possibly more than Scherzer thus far this season, got there with more than a little help from his friends even with his final 2.70 ERA on the year.

April 22 — Bob Friend started for the Pirates against Cincinnati and was battered for 6 runs in two full innings. Face was the fourth Pittsburgh pitcher on the day, relieving Bennie Daniels to open the eighth inning with the game tied at seven. Manager Danny Murtaugh, who'd used pitcher Vernon Law as a pinch runner after former Reds star Ted Kluszewski batted for Daniels in the seventh, declined to keep Law in the game. Face surrendered a leadoff bomb to Gus Bell before retiring the next three hitters, hung in to shut down the Reds in order in the top of the ninth, and got the win when the Pirates re-tied the game on a bases-loaded walk (to Roman Mejias) and an RBI single (by Rocky Nelson).

April 24 — Two days later, Face was brought in to save it for Ron Kline against Philadelphia, after two Pittsburgh relievers (Bob Porterfield, Bob Smith) held on to get a 4-3 lead to Face. He got former Red Wally Post to fly out for the side, but in the eighth he surrendered a two-run double to Phillies catcher Carl Sawatski. (Now, there's a name!) Again, Face needed his mates to overthrow a one-run deficit, which is exactly what they did in the top of the ninth: a 2-run double (Smoky Burgess, driving in Bill Virdon and Roberto Clemente), a sacrifice fly (Don Hoak, scoring Dick Schofield, Sr.), and an RBI single. (Bill Mazeroski, driving in Dick Stuart.) Face shook off two singles to keep the Phillies at bay in the ninth for the win.

May 3 — In the first game of a double-header with St. Louis, Face took over for Law to open the eighth in a three-all tie and dueled Cardinals reliever Jim Brosnan (in the middle of the year that would produce his groundbreaking insider memoir, The Long Season) into an extra inning. Face shut the Cardinals out hitless while the Pirates went fast enough and loose enough (a leadoff single, a wild pitch moving the runner up, an intentional walk, a pop out, Brosnan out for Alex Kellner and a bases-loading walk, Kellner out for Howie Nunn) before Mazeroski sent home the game winner with a single to right.

May 7 — Again, Face worked in game one of a doubleheader, this time against the Phillies. Again, he came in to spell Law, who'd pitched nine before the game went to the tenth on a four-all tie. Face surrendered one single (to Ed Bouchee) in the 10th, then pocketed a win when Kluszewski opened the bottom of the tenth with a mammoth shot off Jim Owens, who went all the way for the loss.

May 13 — Face was brought in to open the seventh in the Los Angeles Coliseum after Kline fell behind 4-3 to Don Drysdale and company. He surrendered a mere double to left (Junior Gilliam) in the seventh, watched his mates hang up three in the top of the eighth (Stuart, a 2-run homer; Mazeroski, an RBI double), then shook off two hits and two walks the rest of the way to keep the Dodgers at bay and win, 6-4.

May 14 — The very next day, Face blew a save when he relieved Friend against the Dodgers in the bottom of the eighth, after Duke Snider doubled home Ron Fairly to cut a Pirate lead to 6-3. Entering with pinch-runner Bob Willis on third, Joe Pignatano on first, and one out, Face was greeted by pinch hitter Rip Ripulski singling home Willis and - a walk and a strikeout later - Wally Moon slicing a two-run, game-tying single up the pipe. Stuart smashed a solo homer off Clem Labine in the top of the ninth, though, and Face retired the side in order including two swinging strikeouts in the bottom for the win. It was the third time on the season thus far that Face had turned a blown save into a win.

May 31 — Face ended the month with a flourish in the nightcap of a doubleheader, against the Reds. The game was a high-scoring affair with the Pirates leading 14-11 after six-and-a-half, thanks to Burgess parking a 3-run bomb in the top of the seventh. Face took over for Bob Smith as the fourth Pirate reliever on the day; he matched Cincinnati's Willard Schmidt shutout inning for shutout inning to win.

June — Face would be named the National League's Player of the Month for a performance in which he made 14 appearances, saved 4, and won 5 and only one of the games was a blown save he turned into a win. That came on June 11 in Candlestick Park against the Giants, when he relieved Friend in the eighth and surrendered a one-out 3-run homer to Willie Mays, who was pinch hitting. Only one of those runs was charged to Face (Mays himself); Andre Rodgers was an unearned run since he reached by plunk, and Jackie Brandt had opened the inning with a single off Friend. Face was lifted for a pinch hitter in the top of the ninth after the Pirates dismantled Stu Miller (unearned run-scoring single, sacrifice fly) and Dom Zanni (two-run single, run scoring on a throwing error), and this time Law was brought in to save it for Face. It was the only earned run Face surrendered all month.

July 9 — Face took over for Law with two out in the ninth and a tie game against the Cubs; he worked an inning and a third of one-hit ball as pinch hitter Harry Bright singled home Clemente with the game-winner.

July 12 — In game one of a doubleheader with the Cardinals, Face came in in the top of the eighth to stop the bleeding after the Redbirds, opening the inning in a 5-1 hole, took the game back to within a run against Harvey Haddix, abetted by unearned runs thanks to St. Louis third baseman Ken Boyer reaching on a third base error. Face got George Crowe to pop out to the catcher for the side, but the Cardinals tied it an inning later when Don Blasingame opened against Face with an infield hit, took second on a sacrifice bunt, and scored on Bill White's single. He shut the Cardinals down the rest of the way before Clemente won it in the bottom of the tenth with a one-out RBI single.

August 9 — By now, Face was 14-0 but almost a month without a win. This day, he came in at Wrigley Field to take over for Law, who left in the eighth for a pinch hitter with the Pirates in the hole 2-1. Tony Taylor led off by reaching when Schofield committed a fielding error at shortstop and eventually scored on an RBI single after Face walked Ernie Banks on the house to set up a possible one-out double play. He got out of it with no further damage by getting Moose Moryn to fly out to deep center. The Pirates sent it to extras with a two-run ninth (Clemente, an RBI single; Burgess, a sacrifice fly) and scored twice in the tenth (Dick Groat, RBI single; Nelson, bases-loaded walk), leaving Face to dispatch the Cubs in order in the bottom for the W.

August 23 — Face faced the Dodgers in the nightcap of a doubleheader at Forbes Field. The Dodgers took a 3-1 lead off Law in the eighth and the Pirates put it back to within a run in the bottom off the Dodgers' own relief ace Larry Sherry. Face was the beneficiary when Stuart tied it in the bottom of the ninth with a two-out single and Groat won it in the bottom of the tenth with a two-out bases-loaded single - after the Pirates had squandered an early advantage by turning a leadoff single (Hoak) into a double play.

August 30 — Again in the nightcap of a doubleheader. This time, Face came in to open the top of the tenth and Philadelphia's Bouchee greeted him promptly with a launch over the right field wall, putting the Phillies up 6-5. Face worked the rest of the inning with only a two-out infield hit (Gene Freese) to interrupt, and the Pirates won in the bottom thanks to Stuart's two-run double. It made Face a 17-0 pitcher on the season to date.

The rest of the way — Face made seven more appearances. He blew a save and lost on September 11 against the Dodgers, but over a week later he won his 18th with four-inning, 1-run ball against the Reds. He came into a tie game in the ninth and surrendered a tiebreaker to Johnny Temple (RBI single), but Mazeroski's 2-run triple in the bottom nailed the win.

Face broke Jim Konstanty's record for single-season relief wins (Konstanty won 16 for the pennant-winning Phillies in 1950), but 10 of his wins came after surrendering the tying or lead runs while the Pirate lineup had to re-gain the lead or win it on a walk-off. That may be why Face received no Cy Young Award votes (Early Wynn of the White Sox won it) and finished eighth in the season's Most Valuable Player vote, at a time when only first place votes were cast for the prize.

Right now, Scherzer's only fooling opposing teams, one way or the other. He may be riding a flukish stat, but it's a ride you wouldn't expect him to quit enjoying for as long as he's on the train at all.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:02 AM | Comments (0)