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May 31, 2013

Secrets of the 2013 NFL Season

* At the Thursday night season-opener on September 5th, forgiving Broncos fans give safety Rahim Moore a standing ovation before the game versus Baltimore, proving that anyone, not just Jacoby Jones, can "get behind" Moore.

During pre-game warm-ups, former Bronco Elvis Dumervil promises Peyton Manning 2 sacks. After the game, a 30-16 Denver win in which neither Dumervil nor any teammates record a sack, Manning says that his offensive line "must not have got the memo, or the fax" from Dumervil.

Denver scores a measure of revenge for last year's playoff loss, pummeling the Ravens, 30-16.

* While aimlessly wandering the sidelines at the Steelers/Jets contest on October 13th, Jets legend Joe Namath bumps into the behind of offensive lineman Brandon Moore. Namath stumbles, trips over a Gatorade bottle, and sets off a Rube Goldberg-like sequence of events that ends two minutes later with a Mark Sanchez fumble and a Namath kiss from Suzy Kolber.

New York loses 26-23 to Pittsburgh, and the Jets finish the season 6-10, third in the AFC East. Rex Ryan is fired the following day, but finds work immediately when he is hired to host Travel Channel's "Man Versus Foot."

* As a whole, 2013's draft class gets off to a slow start early in the season, not because of lack of talent, but because none wants to be the first rookie to be the subject of a "coming out" party headline.

Eventually, the Rams' Tavon Austin and Miami's Dion Jordan separate themselves from their rookie counterparts and win the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, respectively.

* In the Raiders' season-opener in Indianapolis on September 8th, outspoken Oakland punter Chris Kluwe badly shanks his first punt, predictably to the far left, into the Raiders sideline, where head coach Dennis Allen makes the catch. Kluwe is placed on waivers the next day, but is quickly claimed by The Rachel Maddow Show on Tuesday.

* Chargers rookie linebacker Manti Te'o impresses early in San Diego's camp, endearing himself to coaches and veterans alike with a tireless work ethic and maturity beyond his years. However, Te'o's mental tools later come in to question it is revealed that 11 weeks passed before he realized his dating advice column for the San Diego Union-Tribune was a hoax perpetrated by teammate Eric Weddle.

Te'o laughs off the ridicule and has a solid year for the Chargers, earning the team's Defensive Rookie of the Year award, which he celebrates by buying some oceanfront property in Iowa.

* Seattle's Richard Sherman accidentally bites his tongue while trash-talking Skip Bayless in a heated exchange on ESPN's First Take in late September. Sherman gets the last word, saying that Bayless is a "sum off a bith" after Bayless accuses him of having "small diction."

The wound requires four stitches and Sherman misses two games, setbacks that are tempered by his newfound ability to communicate with Shannon Sharpe.

* The Cowboys organization files an injunction to block the release of Lindsay Lohan's self-produced foray into the soft-core porn industry, Herbie Does Dallas, in which she portrays a down-on-her-luck, past-her-prime, drug-addled, conceited cheerleader who forges a sexual relationship with a Volkswagen Beetle.

And speaking of sex with inanimate objects, transvestite Edna "Too Tall" Jones' relationship with Jerry Jones goes public, leading to Jerry Jones delivering a public apology prior to the Cowboys Sunday night game in New Orleans on November 10th.

* On Thanksgiving Day in Detroit, Ndamukong Suh intentionally boots Aaron Rodgers in the crotch, sending the Packers quarterback writhing in pain. The act goes un-penalized, however, as officials miss the call.

And enraged Rodgers, in a surprising move, consults with Brett Favre, who advises Rodgers to text a photo of his damaged member, not to Jenn Sterger, but to NFL offices. Suh is suspended for one game, and ordered to attend testicle sensitivity training.

Rodgers recovers, and goes on a tear in his final four games, tossing 14 touchdown passes, then announces that State Farm has insured his testes for $5 million.

* After eating a contaminated apple pastry prior to the Cowboys December 29th game against the Eagles in Dallas, a sickened Tony Romo sits out the first quarter with extreme stomach cramps. Still, it's not the costliest "turnover" of the day for Romo, as a fumble on the Eagles one-yard line with three seconds left costs the Cowboys a win, and a playoff spot.

* The surprising Dolphins finish 9-7, second in the AFC East, buoyed by speedy wideout Mike Wallace, who becomes the fastest thing in Miami since the Heat bandwagon.

Wallace grabs 10 touchdowns on the year, including three of 50 yards or more.

* On July 6th, English rocker Billy Idol performs "White Wedding" at the nuptials of Robert Griffin III and Rebecca Liddicoat and dedicates the tune to former ESPN announcer Rob Parker. Idol's performance is followed by a set from Crazy Horse, albeit without Neil Young, who feels the "Redskins" nickname is offensive to Native Americans.

The newlyweds honeymoon in Jamaica, where TMZ broadcasts Griffin shouting "Geronimo!" as he begins a zip line run. Controversy ensues, and the Washington organization acquiesces to pressure from Congress and Native American advocacy groups, culminating in a name change, as the Washington Redskins become the Washington "Generics."

* The Bengals win the AFC North with an 11-5 record, led by A.J. Green, who leads the AFC with 1,496 receiving yards and 12 touchdown receptions.

* In the Broncos' first six games, Wes Welker grabs 27 passes for 126 yards, with 19 of the receptions going for first downs. When reminded of his paltry 4.6 yards per catch average, Welker shrugs and coins the phrase "the Wes Coast Offense."

* In his first game as a Buccaneer, Darrelle Revis picks off Mark Sanchez twice in Tampa's 27-20 opening week win over the Jets at MetLife Stadium. On his second interception, Revis races down the Jets sideline toward pay dirt, outrunning everyone, save for Jets owner Woody Johnson, who catches Revis and begs him to return.

Revis records nine interceptions on the year and is named to the All Pro team, then becomes the first player hold out for more money in the Pro Bowl.

* Atlanta's Julio Jones lead the league with 14 touchdowns on the season as the Falcons win the NFC South with an 11-5 record, edging the 10-6 Panthers.

* Alex Smith brings to Kansas City something Chiefs fans have longed for — a quarterback worth cheering for who's not injured. Smith makes Chiefs' fans forget about Matt Cassel with his first pass, a 68-yard scoring bomb to Dwayne Bowe. However, Smith's second pass, an interception on a screen pass, makes Chiefs' fans remember Brock Huard, Brody Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen.

At times, Smith reminds many of Joe Montana, particularly when he dons his Skechers Shape-Ups for a jaunt through his upscale Kansas City neighborhood.

The Chiefs finish 7-9, second in the AFC West.

* San Francisco's Jim Harbaugh fuels the fire in the San Fran-Seattle rivalry when he refers to the rivals as the "Pee-hawks" when questioned by reporters about the Seahawks' performance-enhancing drug issues.

Pete Carroll fires back, quipping to reporters that "at least my players pee standing up." Harbaugh gets the last laugh as the 49ers sweep the Seahawks in the regular season. The animosity spills over during the post-game handshake when Detroit's Jim Schwartz comes out of nowhere and pats the two on the back.

* In the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers topple the Packers in Green Bay, as Colin Kaepernick becomes the first player in NFL history to record a passing, rushing, receiving touchdown, two-point conversion, and new tattoo in a single game.

* Whereas John Madden utilized the "Madden Cruiser" for travel to and from games, Al Michaels advocates the "Police Cruiser," which keeps him off the road.

Michaels stipulates that broadcast partner Cris Collinsworth is forbidden to say a number of phrases on air, including, but not limited to: 1) referring to coverage as "blown." 2) describing a game or stadium's atmosphere as "intoxicating." 3) characterizing a defense that doesn't allow 100-yard rushers as "100 proof." 4) referring to taking a big hit as getting "plastered."

* With Carson Palmer a Cardinal, Larry Fitzgerald welcomes another new quarterback to Arizona as only he knows how, with a phone call to Kurt Warner pleading for his return.

Warner politely declines, and advises Fitzgerald to say his prayers and keep reaching for the stars. Fitzgerald obliges, converts to atheism, and sees his Hall Of Fame hopes slip further away.

Fitzgerald catches 76 passes for 985 yards and 6 TDs, mediocre by his standards, but incredible considering the circumstances.

The Cards finish 5-11, dead-last in the tough NFC West.

* In an interview with Leslie Visser on CBS prior to the Vikings September 29th game versus Pittsburgh, Adrian Peterson elaborates on his spring statement that he's "not with" gay marriage, and is later voted "NFC Offensive Player of the Year" by the PFLAG.

Peterson is delivered his comeuppance in the game, in which the Steelers defense shuts him down in Mall of America Stadium. Peterson is held to zero yards on 11 carries, leaving him confused after his first "home-0" experience.

Peterson straightens up, and leads the NFL in rushing yardage with 1,763 yards despite missing two games, one with a sprained left pinky, the other with an ingrown toenail.

* At Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium, the Broncos, led by Peyton Manning's 3 touchdown passes, edge the 49ers 30-27 in the NFL's first cold-weather Super Bowl.

At halftime, Maria Carey performs in a form-fitting gown, and the chilly 27 degree weather leads to the halftime show's first fully-clothed wardrobe malfunction.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:43 PM | Comments (0)

May 30, 2013

Schadenfreude and the NBA Eastern Finals

A little over three years ago, in the lead up to "The Decision," I wrote a paean for LeBron James to say with his, and my, hometown team. While I am absolutely positive that LeBron read it, and was moved enough for a single tear to roll down his cheek, he villainously didn't listen and now we are where all Cleveland fans feared: The Cavs suck and LeBron got his title.

So while I didn't do any jersey-burning like some of my fellow Northeast Ohioans, I understand the sentiment, and pulling for the Heat to lose has returned my interest in the NBA playoffs to levels they haven't been to since I was a teenager. I'm a college sports guy, and when it comes to pro team sports, I gravitate more towards the NFL, European soccer leagues, and to a lesser extent, MLB before the NBA.

But I think the Pacers just might be the team to give Cleveland fans a modicum of succor just like Dallas did two seasons ago, so I'm glued to the television every game.

We knew already that, statistically, the Pacers were the top defensive team in the league. But to see it writ large on the highest stage is somewhat startling. Post play favors the Pacers so emphatically and distinctly in this matchup, and its rare to see a team take on Miami be at such a marked disadvantage in any area.

Roy Hibbert and David West both had 12 rebounds against the Heat in Game 4, and if we tabulated the winner by rebounds instead of points, the game would have been a blowout (49-30). But the most incredible stat of the game is this: Indiana had 33 offensive rebound opportunities, and got the board on 15 of them. You can't win if you give a team second chances on almost half their misses, but to their credit, Miami nearly did.

The inside dominance of Indiana is juxtaposed curiously with the recent fawning over LeBron's defensive versatility, particularly in the low post. Sports Illustrated just graced him with a cover story, his 19th, focused on his defense. It praised his ability to guard centers, and SI.com followed the story with an adjunct piece that focus exclusively on his excellent defensive work in the paint.

The Heat, I am certain, would rather let LeBron be LeBron and be the all-everything player he is rather than unduly focusing his efforts on one area of the floor. But I'm not sure they have a choice now. Chris Bosh is banged up and has been outclassed by Roy Hibbert to a startling extent. Bosh simply looks old out there. He was always sort of the third amigo of the Big Three, and I'm no longer convinced he's even the Heat's third-best player. Dwyane Wade is banged up too and has not been particularly superlative.

This means that, as Paul Flannery nicely put it, "The whole point of The Decision was joining forces with other like-minded talents, but three years into this great experiment, LeBron is back in Cleveland, just with bigger names attached to the supporting cast."

To be sure, coming into this series, the Heat were still James, Wade, and Bosh, with the surprising revelation of Chris Andersen, another player who laid an egg in Game 4. But they've been outshone by a new Big Three: Hibbert, West, and Paul George, with the surprising revelation of Lance Stephenson. How many casual NBA fans had even heard of those guys save Hibbert and maybe West coming into this series?

But in their relative obscurity is the danger that their performances, particularly on offense, this series are outliers. I'm excited that Indiana is going toe-to-toe with Heat, but make no mistake: Miami is still the better team, they've proven it over the course of the season, and they have two more games in this series, if they need them, at home. For their part, Indiana never blinked once in their two games in American Airlines Arena, taking one game and forcing the other to overtime. The way they win this series is to keep doing that: Don't blink, believe, and keep playing the defense you are known for and the offense you are not.

This series is going to go the full seven games, and Game 7 will be close.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 4:44 PM | Comments (0)

Roland Garros: Notes From Qualifying Week

Let's begin by saying the obvious: every year, the weather conditions pose problems at Roland Garros. Can anyone remember how miserable the conditions were in last year's semifinals and finals? Hence, I was not expecting a great, sunny weather for the full duration of the tournament.

What I did not expect, however, was to look at the weather forecast the day before qualifying rounds start, and see nothing but rain in the forecast for the next 10 days, which was as far as the long-range forecast would allow me to see. I said to myself "surely not!" I was right only for a portion of Wednesday. The rest of the time, the weather forecast turned out right. Outside of a couple of hours of continuous sun on Wednesday, the rest of the week has been rainy, crummy, windy, and cold. Very cold. I mean winter jacket type of cold!

I must thus express once again my admiration for French tennis fans. They still came in fair numbers to watch the qualifying rounds, ready with their umbrellas, their plastic raincoats that cover the whole body (I can't get myself to wear one of those), and their enthusiasm. Interesting note: on Wednesday, the French world No. 8 Jo-Wilfriend Tsonga practiced on Court Suzanne Lenglen, during perhaps the only couple of hours of the week where the sun was bright (but still cold) and around 100 people watched him.

The next day on the same court, during a crummy, cold, cloudy, and windy afternoon, with a steady but light rain coming down, a crowd of 300 to 400 watched Roger Federer practice on the same court, and clapped some of his good shots from under their umbrellas with their smile on! Nothing can dampen the French crowd's mood when Roger is on the court. He is practically one of theirs.

On a related note, why in the world do the organizers allow the spectators who want to watch the practice sessions on Suzanne Lenglen to sit only in a small portion of the stadium? If there are only a few dozen people watching, it's understandable. But to stick few hundred people to a small part of the stadium during a practice session is downright silly. At least open up also a small area on the opposite side of the stadium so that people don't have to walk around the stadium to enter through a single entry and search for a seat to watch a practice session on the second biggest court of a Slam tournament.

After watching the American men play in the qualifying rounds, what I always knew was once again confirmed. They have truly developed a weird complex on red clay: it's called the "on red clay, I must stay back on the exact type of balls that I would come to the net on hard courts with my eyes closed" complex. Even Pete Sampras suffered from this. He would stay at the baseline and try to out-rally his opponents that made a living rallying from the baseline on red clay.

Outside of Andre Agassi, Jim Courier, and Michael Chang, who were natural baseliners, every American that I have seen at Roland Garros tries to win with some variation of a B plan where as their A plan is the attacking style of play that they execute without thinking twice on hard courts. John McEnroe is the only one who executed his "A game" on red clay and he almost won the tournament doing that in 1984 if it was not for the miracle comeback by Ivan Lendl. He would certainly not have done as well, had he tried to do it from the baseline.

Almost without exception, every time I watched an American play in the men's qualifying draw this week, they hit the same aggressive shots, and they watch their opponents run from corner to corner, all stretched and floating balls back with high slices, yet they stay back and try to hit a bigger baseline shot on the next ball instead of coming to the net for the easy finish even though that is precisely what they would have done if the match was played on hard courts.

The top USTA coaches were all present during the matches, so I am assuming they are watching the same matches that I am watching. I am also wondering if I am dreaming this, or am I the only one who sees something where there is none? I am sure, however, that the American ATP players have been carrying this complex on their shoulders for decades, and that it exists (well, not the name of the complex in the beginning of the paragraph, I just came up with that now!).

Lastly, if you still think social media has not totally invaded our lives, watching the tennis players and their coaches and friends will convince you that it definitely has. In the players' lounge, you see more players and their entourage sitting in some corner, immersed in their iPads, iPhones, and tablets than talking to their friends and company.

I saw one player immediately grab his iPhone after shaking his opponent's hand at the end of the match, while he was on the court to read the congratulatory messages from those who were following the score on live score reporting sites as he was walking off the court. What about his bag and rackets? He handed them off to someone to be carried so he could continue his "socializing."

Another time, another place, two players happened to sit next to me during lunch. One of them is currently inside the top 20, the other outside the top 100, both from the same country. Without exaggeration, they talked for over 20 minutes on how to turn down a Facebook friend request without hurting someone's feelings. They analyzed variations of quotes, what to say if it's a girl or a boy, if it's a child or an adult, etc.

Last, but not the last ... rain and cold ... please go away!

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 10:31 AM | Comments (0)

May 29, 2013

It's Official, NBA Playoffs Are a Mess

As I settled in to watch Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, I was certain of three things:

1. The Indiana Pacers would put forth max effort and would continue to try to bully the Miami Heat into submission.

2. Miami's three-headed superstar monster of LeBron James/Dwyane Wade/Chris Bosh would ultimately be the deciding factor of this game at home.

3. The referees would be less official and more participant as their bad calls would continue to shine the spotlight off the game itself and onto the periphery.

Sadly, on all three counts, my expectations were exceeded.

The 2013 NBA playoffs have had more than their share of enthralling action and phenomenal play. Young teams featuring rosters loaded with role players from Houston and Memphis made the Oklahoma City Thunder — the best team in the West — sweat a bit (Houston) and ultimately start their offseason before they were ready (Memphis). A grizzled veteran San Antonio team cake-walked through a Lakers team that continued to shock in their disinterest, battled a tough Golden State team for a six-game win, and eased on by that very same Memphis squad that had just a round earlier knocked out those Thunder.

In the East, the Heat impressed with their efficiency in rolling Milwaukee and Chicago. Those pesky Celtics showed the heart and effort that proud veterans show but came up short in their round one series against the Knicks, who went on to show the lack of heart and effort that me-first, selfish play typically exemplifies as they were hammered by the Pacers.

Throughout these playoffs, stars-in-the-making have emerged and established superstars have wilted under pressure with similar frequency. Big-name players have fallen to major injury. Role players have excelled in the execution of those roles. But even with all this good, the one point of fact that consistently mars the recollection of these playoff games is an undeniable failing of the officiating crews in letting the players decide the games.

I cannot recollect a time in the past where such a poor job was done en masse by the league's officials, and that's saying a lot considering that past includes a religious following of Michael Jordan's time as a Bull where a mere hard breath in his direction often elicited a tweet from the whistles of the men-in-stripes. That past also includes those Utah Jazz teams that would just as soon kick an opponent in the "huevos" than execute their flawless pick-and-role in search of their playoff wins and the "Bad Boy" Detroit Piston teams that may as well have brought panty-hose to games to wear over their heads as they assaulted their way through the playoffs annually. This, in a word, is pathetic.

To put the awfulness of this year's officiating crews into perspective (albeit a very subjective perspective), I'm not even a fan of any of the eight teams that made it past the first round of the playoffs, yet I spend half of each game I watch literally yelling at the television and throwing my hands up in the air in disgust as the Zebras do whatever they can to shape the outcome of games and make sure they get the attention they apparently feel they deserve with a consistency that would lead that fabled storybook tortoise to say, "Wow, those guys sure know a thing or two about maintaining a steady pace."

Even as I prepare this article, I'm forced to rewrite its content to capture the most recent ridiculousness as it occurs. Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals featured an inexplicably botched shot clock non-violation, a curious traveling violation on a play that we see dozens of times a game without penalty, two foul calls on King James, the game's best player and most scintillating star, that are tough to call on a team's 12th man in the flow of play, and no fewer than three replay-aided calls due to referees simply not cleanly observing what they are paid to observe; and all of this came in the fourth quarter alone!

Though in the example above the Miami Heat are the clear victims, the bulk of these playoffs have offered much more Miami-favored officiating, with no-calls galore dotting the landscape of their games and with a seemingly obvious tendency to let the game "flow" when flowing in their favor, but break up that flow with constant whistle-blowing when they found themselves on the wrong end of a run. This pattern repeats itself in each and every series that has been played and each game of each of those series produces its own list of head-scratching decisions by the officiating crews.

The motivation behind these absurdities is as unclear as many of the calls themselves. Is there some deep-seeded conspiracy at hand (doubtful)? Is the league feeding its officials "stupid pills" (probably not, but if such things exist, perhaps I could get some to dumb down my know-it-all teenage son)? Are the officials just bad (probably partially true)? While it is unlikely we will ever have any answers to what has gone on throughout this postseason, I do have a theory...

In recent years, professional sports have had to deal with similar strikes and/or lockouts that impact players among the officiating bodies of those leagues. The two most recent examples, in the NFL in 2012 and the NBA in 2009, are interesting case studies that I think relate directly to what we are seeing in the NBA today.

During the 2009 NBA referee strike, a well-respected NBA figure (head coach Rick Adelman) passed a seemingly harmless sentence to reporters. Coach Adelman, in speaking to the efficacy of the replacement referees during the preseason, said, "They just call things differently than normal officials. They are going by the book." To the untrained ear, this doesn't seem like much, however the implication goes much deeper than just a passing sentence; the regular refs do not go "by the book" when they are officiating games. That simple statement clearly indicates that there is a presumption that NBA refs are typified by the coaching ranks as officials that add a dash of themselves to their trade. While that may not necessarily be a bad thing, it certainly breeds some sense that this individualism — which could well manifest into a lust for the spotlight — is an important part of the culture of the NBA official.

The second, and probably more damning, truth about how labor unrest may have played into today's landscape is the reaction to the return of those NFL referees after their 2012 strike. Throughout the four weeks of "scab" refs, all the major sports media outlets dedicated plenty of their attention to the failings of those refs. Returning NFL refs (the "real" ones) were greeted with standing ovations across the land and those officials, who are by all official accounts supposed to be as anonymous a figure as there is during the games, suddenly became household names and were pariahs no more, even if only temporarily so.

The manifestation of these two realities is a situation where NBA referees are driven by a combination of ego and job security to identify themselves within professional basketball. The first manifestation is a desire to be seen and noticed. This has created a sense that a referee needs to create a "reputation"; some officials play to the crowds, some offer star treatment, some are harder on superstars, and so on.

The second manifestation is a tendency for one ref to look to overrule another, thus exhibiting dominance over their partners within the framework of a game. It is this condition that truly creates an untenable situation as it has more of a snowballing affect on the quality of the games. As one official gets overruled, he becomes more forceful in protecting their own reputation which in turn leads to further conflict within a game and the end result is a whole lot of "look at me" moments being generated by the officials, and this, I think we can all agree, is never a good thing.

This situation has likely been going on for years, right under all of our noses, but it was never recognized as anything other than a minor seam rip in the otherwise sound fabric of the game. As with anything, the more energy an object in motion has, the more energy and less likely it is to stop that object when it gets to the threshold. We're simply at the point now where the typical NBA referee has over-officiated themselves into irrelevance. Pair that with the "slap-in-the-face" that is instant replay being implemented, further impugning an official's perceived ability to get the job done, and you have yourselves an old-fashioned powder keg that was bound to ignite.

The good news in all of this is it is a very correctable condition that is negatively impacting a great sport. The bad news? Correcting that condition would require admittance of guilt, and in the ego-run-amok world of professional sports, that's about as likely as us getting through a game without throwing our hands up in the air in protest of a terrible call.

Posted by Matt Thomas at 3:05 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 12

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson got loose and spun at Charlotte on lap 334, collecting Matt Kenseth. Johnson finished 22nd, five laps off the pace, but still holds a comfortable 32-point lead over Carl Edwards in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"I'll say the same thing Kasey Kahne said on Sunday," Johnson said. "'This seems like a comfortable lead.

"But I'd like to apologize to Kenseth. He was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. That's a place I don't visit often. I'm usually in the right place at the right time, five times."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth established himself early as the favorite to win at Charlotte, leading 112 laps before he slammed into Jimmie Johnson's spinning No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet on lap 334. He finished 15th, two laps behind the leader.

"Much like a Fox camera on a broken cable," Kenseth said, "I had nowhere to go. But I took it in stride. Everyone knows I'm a cool customer, even under the greatest of stress. Unlike a Fox camera cable, I never 'snap.'"

3. Carl Edwards — Edwards remained second in the point standings with an 11th in Charlotte. He now trails Jimmie Johnson by only 32.

"And I have a 19-point lead over third place," Edwards said, "So it looks like I'll be holding on to second. And I'm a pro when it comes to holding second. I did it for the entire 2011 Chase."

4. Kasey Kahne — Kahne had a comfortable lead with about 15 laps to go, but a caution resulting from debris from Jimmie Johnson's damaged No. 48 cost Kahne the win. Kahne stayed out, while everyone trailing pitted for fresh tires. Kevin Harvick zoomed by on the restart, while Kahne held on for second.

"Counting himself," Kahne said, "Johnson cost three drivers the win.

"As a driver sponsored by Time Warner Cable, I'm contractually obligated to say that our cable never goes down."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick's fresh tires on the final pit stop put him in the lead on the final restart, and the Richard Childress driver pulled away to claim the Coca-Cola 600, his second win of the year.

"They call me 'The Closer,'" Harvick said. "That's either because of what I do at the end of races, or it's what I did to the door at RCR.

"I admire that television cable. It did something I've always wanted to do — clothesline Kyle Busch. You can add 'broken cable' to the long list of things keeping Busch from winning a Cup."

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished eighth in the Coca-Cola 600, posting his sixth top 10 of the year. He is fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 60 out of first.

"It was a tough night for many in Charlotte," Bowyer said, "especially the 10 fans injured by a falling television cable. Normally, I'd offer them a shot of 5-Hour Energy drink, but the last thing they need to be is 'wired.'"

7. Kyle Busch — Busch's engine blew midway through the Coca-Cola 600, relegating him to a 38th place finish. Earlier in the race with Busch leading, a freak accident portending later problems befell when a cable supporting a FOX camera fell, damaging the right side of Busch's No. 18 M&M Toyota and red-flagging the race.

"It was a double whammy," Busch said. "One minute, the sky is falling; the next, the bottom's dropping out."

8. Denny Hamlin — In only his second full race after returning from a back injury, Hamlin took fourth in the Coca-Cola 600, his second consecutive top-five.

"Most importantly," Hamlin said, "I finished ahead of Joey Logano. I'm not a big fan of 'Sliced Bread.' You could say I have a loath of 'Bread.'"

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt's engine blew in a cloud of smoke on lap 258, ending his day at Charlotte. He dropped two spots in the point standings to sixth, 81 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I'm sure the legions of Junior fans were disappointed," Earnhardt said. "When my engine gave way, you could hear the collective sigh of disappointment. Or maybe that was just the sound of a broken cable knocking the wind out of them."

10 (tie): Brad Keselowski — Keselowski's troubles continued at Charlotte, as he was involved in a lap 319 spin with Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Danica Patrick. Keselowski fell four spots in the point standings to 10th, 110 out of first.

"At least now," Keselowski said, "I can say I've attended a couples 'retreat.' But it's clear Stenhouse and Patrick have a lot in common. In this case, it's rookie mistakes."

Kurt Busch — Busch led eight laps and finished third at Charlotte, posting his best finish of the year.

"We're holding our own against teams with much larger budgets," Busch said. "Furniture Row Racing is a one-car team that spends considerably less than the big boys. Sunday in Charlotte, we ran like the big boys. It's one of the few occasions I put my big boy panties on."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:03 AM | Comments (0)

May 28, 2013

Best Teams Not to Win the Super Bowl: AFC

I'm interested in losers. Our sports culture focuses on winners, to the point that we forget about those who fell short. Twenty years from now, will anyone but home fans and die-hards remember last season's 13-3 Broncos and Falcons, or the Houston Texans, who started 11-1? Will fans remember the 2011 Green Bay Packers as a great team who had a bad week at the worst possible time, or as just another good team that wasn't good enough?

This is the first article in a two-part series, looking at every current NFL franchise and picking out its best team of the Super Bowl era that did not win a championship. This week, we'll start with the AFC. Teams are sorted alphabetically within their divisions.

2006 Baltimore Ravens
13-3, outscored opponents 353-201; lost divisional playoff

Which Baltimore Ravens team had the best regular season record? Not the 2000 Super Bowl champs (12-4), or the 2012 edition (10-6), and not any of the John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco teams that reached the AFC Championship. The '06 Ravens hold the franchise record for most regular season wins, and they're second only to the '00 team in point differential, outscoring opponents by 152.

This team had a pretty average offense, led by elder statesmen like Steve McNair, Jamal Lewis, and Derrick Mason. But the defense was among the greatest in history. I would entertain arguments that Baltimore had a better defense in 2006 than the legendary 2000 unit. The '06 Ravens led the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed (which the 2000 team did not). They allowed just 3.3 yards per carry and a 63.4 passer rating. None of their last eight opponents scored 20 points, and even in their playoff loss, they held the eventual Super Bowl champions (the Colts with Peyton Manning) without a touchdown.

Runner-up — 2011: 12-4, outscored opp. 378-266; lost AFC Championship Game

Basically the same team that won the Super Bowl the next year, but with Terrell Suggs and Lardarius Webb healthy.

1988 Cincinnati Bengals
12-4, outscored opponents 448-329; lost Super Bowl XXIII

This was not an easy choice. The 1975-76 Bengals won double-digit games in 14-game seasons, against a harder schedule that included the Steel Curtain. You could also argue for the 1981 Bengals who lost Super Bowl XVI. All of those teams had better defense than the '88 squad, but Sam Wyche's group probably had the best offense in the NFL. Boomer Esiason was NFL MVP. A healthy Eddie Brown ranked 3rd in receiving yardage, right behind Jerry Rice. James Brooks averaged over 5 yards a carry and scored 14 touchdowns. And this was the year of the Ickey Shuffle, as rookie sensation Ickey Woods rushed for over 1,000 yards, with a 5.3 average and 15 rushing TDs.

The '88 Bengals suffered one of the more devastating losses in Super Bowl history. They led the 49ers 16-13 with only 3:10 to play and the Niners backed up to their own 8-yard line. Joe Montana threw the winning touchdown with only :34 left, the latest a team has ever lost the lead in a Super Bowl.

Runner-up — 1976: 10-4, outscored opp. 335-210; missed playoffs

Lost to the Super Bowl champion Raiders, twice to the dynasty-era Steelers, and by one point in Baltimore against the 11-3 Colts. Won all their other games, by an average of 16 points.

1987 Cleveland Browns
10-5, outscored opponents 390-239; lost AFC Championship Game

This is The Fumble, not The Drive. When I started this exercise, I had mentally penciled in 1968 for the Browns. They led the NFL in turnover differential, went 10-4, and were the only team to beat the Colts, advancing to the NFL Championship Game before losing a rematch with Baltimore. But in the course of my research, I decided '87 had the edge. The '68 Browns had a great offensive line, and the offense featured Hall of Famers Leroy Kelly and Paul Warfield. But Marty Schottenheimer's '87 team had a much better defense, top-3 in both points and yardage. Both cornerbacks, Hanford Dixon and Frank Minnifield, made the Pro Bowl, as did Clay Matthews and Bob Golic.

Schottenheimer's offense wasn't as explosive as Blanton Collier's 20 years earlier, but it did feature Bernie Kosar's best season (95.4 passer rating) and an effective running tandem with Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack.

Runner-up — 1968: 10-4, outscored opp. 394-273; lost NFL Championship Game

A close call, even as runner-up, over Bill Belichick's 11-5 1994 Browns, the last team in franchise history to win a playoff game. The '94 defense allowed the fewest points in the NFL.

1976 Pittsburgh Steelers
10-4, outscored opponents 342-138; lost AFC Championship Game

Famously the best non-Super Bowl team in franchise history. Some fans even insist this non-championship team was better than the four Super Bowl winners in the decade. In '76, the offense was devastated by injuries. Terry Bradshaw missed most of the season, while both Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier were injured during the playoffs. The defense, however, was among the greatest in history. It boasted 8 Pro Bowlers, including Hall of Famers Mel Blount, Joe Greene, Jack Ham, and Defensive Player of the Year Jack Lambert.

Pittsburgh posted five shutouts in the last eight games, allowing an average of just 2.8 points during that stretch. The dominant run defense allowed just 3.2 yards per carry, leading the NFL in rushing yards allowed, rushing TDs allowed, and yards/attempt allowed. Missing Harris and Bleier, the Pittsburgh offense stalled in the AFC Championship Game, and a sensational Raider offense scored 24 points to end the Steelers' run.

Runner-up — 2004: 15-1, outscored opp. 372-251; lost AFC Championship Game

Ben Roethlisberger's rookie year. The Steelers started 1-1, then won their last 14 games, including victories against both Super Bowl teams.

2012 Houston Texans
12-4, outscored opponents 416-331; lost divisional playoff

The Texans have a brief history, but last season was clearly the highlight. As the season fades into memory, fans are already beginning to forget that for most of the season, Houston was the best team in the NFL. The Texans started 11-1, and in Week 7, they out-gained the (eventual Super Bowl champion) Ravens 420-176 and won by 30.

Houston had a good offense: star running back Arian Foster, solid air attack with Matt Schaub passing to Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. But the defense really distinguished this team. In particular, Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt led all defensive linemen in tackles and solo tackles (by more than 1/3), led the NFL in sacks (20.5), deflected 16 passes, forced 4 fumbles, and recovered 2.

Runner-up — 2011: 10-6, outscored opp. 381-278; lost divisional playoff

Same team, one year earlier.

1968 Baltimore Colts
13-1, outscored opponents 402-144; lost Super Bowl III

In the Super Bowl era, the teams with the highest average margin of victory are both teams that lost Super Bowls: the 16-0 2007 Patriots (19.7) and the '68 Colts (18.4). The Patriots scored about twice as many points as their opponents, but Baltimore nearly tripled its opponents' scoring total, winning by an average of 29-10. The Colts scored at least 20 points in every game but one, recorded three shutouts, and didn't have a game decided by less than a touchdown until the regular season finale. The NFL Championship provided a rematch with the one team that beat them, and this time the Colts won, 34-0.

They were 20-point favorites to win Super Bowl III, and because of overconfidence, bad luck, or something else, they lost 16-7. If they had won, the '68 Colts would probably be considered one of the two or three best teams in the history of professional football.

Runner-up — 2005: 14-2, outscored opp. 439-247; lost divisional playoff

Good defense, incredible offense, started 13-0. This was probably the one season in which Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne were all at the top of their respective games.

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars
14-2, outscored opponents 396-217; lost AFC Championship Game

The Jaguars lost to only one team all year: the Tennessee Titans. They were 15-0 against everyone else, including a brutal 62-7 playoff win over the Dolphins, in Dan Marino's last game. Jacksonville allowed the fewest points in the NFL and scored the 6th-most. This is the second-highest-scoring team in franchise history, but it's the best in scoring defense by over 50 points (269, 2005 Jags). Three players had double-digit sacks, while Aaron Beasley had 200 INT return yards and 2 TDs.

If there's a criticism of this team, it's that it played an easy schedule, and only beat a playoff team once all season (the playoff win against Miami). The schedule was brutal on paper, including both 1998 Super Bowl teams (Denver and Atlanta), the AFC runners-up (Jets), and perennial powers like the 49ers and Steelers. Every one of those teams crashed and none finished with a winning record, so I understand arguments that the '99 Jags were overrated and untested. But even against an easy schedule, 14-2 is very impressive.

Runner-up — 2007: 11-5, outscored opp. 411-304; lost divisional playoff

This was the year David Garrard threw 18 TDs and only 3 interceptions. Jacksonville lost in the playoffs to the 16-0 Patriots.

2008 Tennessee Titans
13-3, outscored opponents 375-234; lost divisional playoff

Tied for the best record in franchise history, with the 1999 and 2000 teams. The '99 team nearly won Super Bowl XXXIV, but the league as a whole was weak that year, and the Titans weren't really a dominant team. They needed a Miracle just to get past the Bills in the wild card round. The 2000 club was stronger, with a much larger margin of victory against a tougher schedule, and a defense that allowed fewer yards than the Super Bowl champion Ravens.

But the '08 team was the best in the NFL. The running game (featuring rookie Chris Johnson) and defense (with Albert Haynesworth at the height of his powers) were so good that ancient Kerry Collins, filling in at QB, just had to avoid mistakes. They lost in the playoffs after they failed to capitalize on opportunities in the first half and Johnson missed the second half with an injury.

Runner-up — 2000: 13-3, outscored opp. 346-191; lost divisional playoff

I'm not trying to disrespect the old Houston Oilers teams, who had some fine seasons in the early AFL and the Warren Moon years, but those teams had little run game and no defense. The Steve McNair/Eddie George years were better teams.

1990 Buffalo Bills
13-3, outscored opponents 428-263; lost Super Bowl XXV

The most heart-breaking loss in Super Bowl history. The Bills rolled through the regular season and won the AFC Championship Game 51-3. In the middle of two decades of NFC dominance, the Bills looked so good that they were favored to win the Super Bowl ... and they nearly did, with the game slipping away on the most famous Wide Right kick in history. This team was stacked with talent, including Hall of Famers Marv Levy, Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, James Lofton, and Bruce Smith.

While each of Buffalo's four Super Bowl teams had a good offense, the '90 edition was the only one with an impressive defense. Led by Bruce Smith, Cornelius Bennett, and Darryl Talley, it ranked in the NFL's top 10 in both yards allowed and points allowed.

Runner-up — 1991: 13-3, outscored opp. 458-318; lost Super Bowl XXVI

Buffalo lost four straight Super Bowls from 1990-93, and only the first one was particularly close. Thurman Thomas won NFL MVP this year; it's as good a choice as any other.

1984 Miami Dolphins
14-2, outscored opponents 513-298; lost Super Bowl XIX

In just his second season, Dan Marino blew away the NFL records for passing yards and passing TDs. The existing single-season record for passing TDs was 36, from the pass-happy AFL. Marino threw 48, a record that stood for 20 years. No one else even passed for 40 TDs in a season until 2001. The existing single-season record for passing yardage was 4,802 (Dan Fouts, 1981). Marino gained 5,084, and that record held up for almost 30 years.

Miami was good enough to win a championship, but in Super Bowl XIX, it ran into one of the greatest teams in history, the 15-1 San Francisco 49ers. The Dolphins couldn't stop Joe Montana, and even Marino struggled against the tough 49er defense.

Runner-up — 1971: 10-3-1, outscored opp. 315-174; lost Super Bowl VI

The year before their undefeated season and back-to-back titles, the Dolphins scored nearly twice as many points as their opponents, and reached the Super Bowl.

2007 New England Patriots
16-0, outscored opponents 589-274; lost Super Bowl XLII

The only team since the '96 Packers to score more than twice as many points as it allowed, also the only team ever to outscore its opponents by 300 points. The Patriots shattered the single-season scoring record and won by an average score of 37-17. The defense was outstanding, too, ranking fourth in the NFL in both points and yards allowed.

New England's downfall was the length of the season. Over the first half of the season, the Patriots won every game by at least 17 points, with an average score of 41-16. In the second half of the season, they won four very close games (four points or less). The Patriots had an old team in '07, so maybe players wore down. Maybe opponents took advantage of weaknesses exposed by the Colts and Eagles. Maybe their aura of invincibility simply cracked. By February 2008, the Giants probably were the best team in the NFL, but looking at an overall season, the '07 Pats are one of the very greatest teams in history.

Runner-up — 2010: 14-2, outscored opp. 518-313; lost divisional playoff

Won their last eight games in a row, outscoring opponents 299-125. They lost their first playoff game to the Jets, a team they had beaten 45-3 a month earlier.

1998 New York Jets
12-4, outscored opponents 416-266; lost AFC Championship Game

I believe there were no truly great teams in the NFL from 1999-2002. Every dynasty collapsed in '99. The Broncos fell apart when John Elway retired and Terrell Davis got hurt. Brett Favre injured his thumb and Reggie White retired. Steve Young retired and Jerry Rice went to Oakland. The Steelers rebuilt without Rod Woodson, Greg Lloyd, and Carnell Lake. Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin retired. The Jets had their greatest season since Super Bowl III right before all that happened, in the last year there was still elite competition.

The spark for New York, 1-15 just two years earlier, was 35-year-old Vinny Testaverde, who led the AFC in passer rating (101.6) and went 13-2 as starter. That record includes a loss to the once and future Super Bowl champions, the Denver Broncos. One year later, and things might have been different...

Runner-up — 1985: 11-5, outscored opp. 393-264; lost wild card playoff

Playing in a stacked AFC East, with the Dan Marino Dolphins and Super Bowl-bound Patriots, the Jets ranked among the NFL's top 10 in points, points allowed, yards, and yards allowed. Ken O'Brien got knocked out of their first playoff game, a loss to New England.

2012 Denver Broncos
13-3, outscored opponents 481-289; lost divisional playoff

There were about a million choices here. The Broncos lost Super Bowls in 1977, 1986, 1987, and 1989, and they went 13-3 in 1984, 1996, 2005, and 2012. Okay, that's eight contenders, not a million, but it's still an unusual number of very successful teams that fell short of winning championships. The weakest, I think, are the four Dan Reeves teams from the '80s. The AFC as a whole was down, so the Broncos were able to reach Super Bowls in years they might not have made the playoffs in the NFC.

I'm sure there are some fans that won't like this, but I ultimately went with John Fox, Peyton Manning, and Von Miller on last year's team. Following a 2-3 start, the Broncos won 11 games in a row. Denver was a balanced team, ranked in the top four in points, points allowed, yards, and yards allowed. This year tied the 1998 Super Bowl champions for the best point differential (+192) in franchise history. A choke job in the playoffs was disappointing, but all these teams ended the season with disappointment.

Runner-up — 1977: 12-2, outscored opponents 274-148; lost Super Bowl XII

The 1977 team, with Craig Morton at quarterback, had a pretty average offense — backed up by the Orange Crush defense. Denver beat the Raiders and Steelers twice each, once in the regular season and again in the playoffs.

1997 Kansas City Chiefs
13-3, outscored opponents 375-232; lost divisional playoff

This exercise seems tailor-made for Marty Schottenheimer. The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring defense, led by stars like Derrick Thomas, Dale Carter, and James Hasty. In '97, though, several other defenders also had impact seasons. Dan Williams led the team in sacks (10.5), Donnie Edwards emerged as one of the best young linebackers in the league, and backup safety Mark McMillian intercepted 8 passes, amassing 274 INT return yards and 3 TDs.

After a regular season split with the Broncos, Kansas City lost the rubber match in January, but gave Denver its toughest game of the postseason, 14-10. Tony Gonzalez's TD at the end of the third quarter gave the Chiefs a late lead, and they were in it until :19 of the fourth quarter, when Elvis Grbac's pass in the end zone, for the game-winning touchdown, was incomplete.

Runner-up — 1968: 12-2, outscored opponents 371-170; lost AFL Championship Game

This team lost 41-6 in the playoffs, but I still think it was a little better than the team that lost Super Bowl I. The same dominant defense led KC to a Super Bowl win the very next year.

1967 Oakland Raiders
13-1, outscored opponents 468-233; lost Super Bowl II

Few teams have dominated a professional sports league the way the 1967 Raiders did. They won their first game 51-0 and went on to score more than twice as many points as their opponents, sweeping the defending champion Chiefs and losing only to Joe Namath's Jets, whom they beat later in the season. The Raiders were led by the downfield passing of AFL MVP Daryle Lamonica.

In the league championship game, Oakland annihilated the Houston Oilers, 40-7, to advance to Super Bowl II. Unfortunately, that game matched them up against Vince Lombardi's Packers. Green Bay scored on its first three possessions and went into halftime leading 16-7. The Packers put the game away in the second half and won by a convincing margin of 33-14.

Runner-up — 1974: 12-2, outscored opponents 355-228; lost AFC Championship Game

Ken Stabler won NFL MVP. The Raiders shut out the Steelers (17-0) and beat the Cowboys and Dolphins, before losing a rematch with Pittsburgh in the playoffs.

2006 San Diego Chargers
14-2, outscored opponents 492-303; lost divisional playoff

In a year with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees all at the top of their games, LaDainian Tomlinson set the single-season touchdown record (31) and the Chargers led the NFL in scoring. Nine Chargers were voted to the Pro Bowl. Linebacker Shawne Merriman was a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and first-team All-Pro despite his four-game suspension. Tomlinson was named league MVP. San Diego won its last 10 games in a row before a weird, flukey loss to New England in the playoffs. Tom Brady threw three interceptions and the Pats had just 51 rushing yards. LaDainian Tomlinson gained 187 yards from scrimmage, scored two touchdowns, and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. If Ray Lewis is right and God cares who wins playoff games, the Supreme Being is obviously not on Marty Schottenheimer's side.

This is the third Schottenheimer team named as a franchise-best non-Super Bowl champ, joining the '87 Browns and '97 Chiefs. I'm sure some fans will disagree about '06 over the Air Coryell teams, but this was the highest-scoring team in Chargers history — and it had a good defense, as well, leading the NFL in sacks. We're only looking at Super Bowl-era squads, so Sid Gillman's early AFL teams, which lost four of the first six league championships, aren't eligible.

Runner-up — 1979: 12-4, outscored opponents 411-246; lost divisional playoff

Any of the 1979-82 Air Coryell teams would be a good choice, but the '79 team was the only one with a good defense. The '80 and '81 teams allowed over 300 points, and '82 allowed 221 in just 9 games.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:14 PM | Comments (0)

May 27, 2013

It's Time For a NHL Coach's Challenge

Clearly, it's a conspiracy theory. Against your team.

Why else would NHL officials make such a bad call? Or miss a blatantly obvious call against your team?

We're knee-deep in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and it feels like the officials have been front and center too many times to be comfortable. Critical calls or non-calls have contributed to key moments in just about every series, leaving fans on all sides griping.

Here's the thing: while some fans like to believe that the NHL, led by the malevolent Gary Bettman, has some reason to secretly force their team out. This, of course, occurs following a loss, as the ebb and flow of fan emotions surges to try and find any logical reason behind the defeat. The problem with this theory is that if you sampled all of it together to create some sort of magic algorithm, it would tell you that the league hates every single team and secretly wants to implode itself.

That would make for a pretty bad business model, and since the NHL is in fact a for-profit enterprise, it could just be that the officials have the most difficult job in the league and they're bound to miss some things, and in the playoffs, those missed things could lead to pivotal moments in games. Is that acceptable? Of course not, but what's the solution?

A coach's challenge seems like the most sensible approach, but there has to be a proper way to integrate it. Too much leeway and you'll be having stoppages at every marginal call. Too strict of guidelines and you'll get blown calls. The following is my proposed solution, one that hopefully strikes a proper balance between the two.

Point No. 1 — A coach can call a challenge on a play related to a goal — either a goal that should be disallowed or vice versa — when he feels that the right call is opposite of what was called on the ice.

Point No. 2 — A coach can call a challenge on a play he feels should have been a penalty or not a penalty.

Point No. 3 — A coach cannot call a challenge on off-sides, icing, hand passes, high-stick touches, etc.

Point No. 4 — If the coach is wrong, the team will be assessed a delay of game penalty. If the call fails to overturn a penalty, the delay of game penalty will be stacked on top of the original call for a 5-on-3 advantage.

Point No. 5 — For challenges on a penalty, a coach will hold up an indicator (card/flag) during the play. Play will be blown dead when his team regains control of the puck.

Point No. 6 — Each coach will have one challenge available per game.

By adding a delay of game penalty, the stakes become very high, and the coach must use extreme judgment when making the call. This may not rectify all blown calls, but it could address some of the more serious missed offenses. If anything, it takes some of the blame off the refs. They're only human and they will make mistakes, but then the onus is on the coaches to catch and correct those mistakes.

Posted by Mike Chen at 12:53 PM | Comments (0)

May 23, 2013

2013 NHL Playoff Contenders and Pretenders

Of the eight remaining teams in the NHL playoffs, the five most recent champions all remain. This year's NHL playoffs is filled with teams and players with playoff experience. I think it is very unlikely that we see a champion arise from the remaining eight that hasn't won the championship in recent memory. Let's take a look at the remaining teams and their chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup.

Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks are surprisingly down 2-1 to the Detroit Red Wings in their current series. Detroit had to win their last four games to squeak into the playoffs for the 22nd straight year, then the Red Wings managed to beat the Anaheim Ducks in seven games, a victory that few saw coming. Chicago has been very dominant all year, but so had the Ducks, and it just may be that the Red Wings manage to thwart the Blackhawks record-breaking season.

I think the Blackhawks will find a way to beat the Red Wings, and the Kings or Sharks, but they'll probably struggle to beat the Penguins or Bruins in the Stanley Cup Final.

Chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup: 15%

Pittsburgh Penguins

I did not have much faith in the Penguins when the playoffs began. I thought they could beat the rather weak New York Islanders, which they did, but I didn't know how the second round would go. Then the Ottawa Senators upset the Montreal Canadiens and Pittsburgh got another favorable matchup in the second round of the playoffs as they align the highest ranked team with the lowest ranked team in the second round of the playoffs, much like the NFL.

Sidney Crosby's return is about the most obvious difference maker one can point to. While there are obviously some very tough teams left in the playoff race, including the last three champions, I think the Penguins, with Sidney Crosby, will simply be tough to beat. A well-rested Boston team could give them trouble, but a five game series would help the Penguins to be solidly rested as well. We'll see if they can put the Senators away quickly in the next few days.

I think that the Penguins have the best chance to win the NHL's most prized possession, which I certainly wouldn't have said last month when Crosby was out with his jaw injury. They have all the right things working at the right time.

Chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup: 35%

Boston Bruins

The Bruins are riding a ridiculous wave of awesome ever since coming back from three goals down in the third period of game seven in their series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Their overtime win against the Rangers in game one of their current series seemed to solidify a momentum that only the mighty Pittsburgh Penguins could potentially stop. I think the champion will likely come out of the Eastern conference. Whether that is the Penguins or the Bruins remains to be seen.

Chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup: 20%

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings have won one game on the road so far in the playoffs this year. That's not going to cut it for the defending champions. Although, it isn't shocking, considering they went 8-12-4 on the road during the regular season. Two of the three final games in their series with the Sharks are at home, but if the Kings have to face the Blackhawks in the Western Conference final, they are going to have to win on the road.

But if Detroit can manage to upset the Blackhawks, the Kings are looking at more home games ... but they have to get by the Sharks first. The Sharks have the momentum, but the Kings have the Staples Center, where they have not lost in the playoffs and where they went 19-4-1 in the regular season. We'll see which way momentum shifts in Game 5 and if the Red Wings can keep the Blackhawks on the ropes.

Chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup: 10%

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks were fined $100,000 the other day for comments they made about Raffi Torres' suspension. When your wallet is $100,000 lighter, it's a solid motivation to win. When you're playing without a tough player such as Torres, you want to win so you can see him return to the lineup.

I personally find it interesting that this is Torres' fourth suspension. He is a repeat offender. But he had more points this year (18) than minutes in the penalty box (17).

Ultimately, the Sharks have to find a way to win at the Staples Center, and doing so in Game 5 would make for a six-game series in my opinion. They have the Kings on the ropes. Win on the road and the series is yours. But good luck moving on past that.

Chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup: 5%

Detroit Red Wings

When the Red Wings beat the Ducks, they won all four of their games by one goal and three of them in overtime. One of the games they lost to the Ducks was in overtime. Against the Blackhawks, the games have not been so close. None of the first three games was even a one-goal game, much less an overtime game.

Even if the Red Wings manage to beat the Blackhawks, they won't do it in five games, and they are going to be one tired team after two difficult series against two of the NHL's best teams. They've already overachieved this season in my opinion. I don't think Lord Stanley's Cup is not in the cards for them this season, but sometimes we see a team that simply arises with nothing but guts and grit to win it all. If there is a team of destiny in this year's playoff race, it could be the Red Wings…or the Bruins ... you know, epic comeback and all.

Chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup: 10%

New York Rangers

The Rangers are dead in the water. Down 3-0 to the Bruins, I think a comeback of such epic proportions is simply out of the question.

Chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup: 1%

Ottawa Senators

The Senators surprised a lot of people in beating the Canadiens as handily as they did. They won two of their games by five goals. I'm not sure what happened to the Habs, but the Senators impressiveness waned quickly when matched up against the Penguins. All that being said, their double-overtime win over the Penguins on Sunday may provide a bit of a momentum shift. Another game at home on Wednesday will give us the true chances of the Senators, but I think they'll be looking at offseason vacations very soon.

Chances of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup: 4%

Posted by Andrew Jones at 3:55 PM | Comments (0)

May 22, 2013

Sir Lance

What a difference a year makes. Last May, Lance Stephenson of the Indiana Pacers became notorious for gesturing the choke sign toward LeBron James after a missed free throw. LeBron, of course, responded by leading Miami to three consecutive victories to eliminate the Pacers from the playoffs.

This wasn't the first time Stephenson was in the news, as he had been the center of attention for the wrong reasons all too often in his basketball career. Given the nickname "Born Ready" while in high school, Stephenson proved to be anything but in his first two seasons in the NBA. But as his performance demonstrated in last night's Game 6 win over the Knicks allowing the Pacers to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, Stephenson may has finally made the jump.

Having followed Stephenson since high school, I had always rooted for the guy. Anytime you are graced with the presence of someone so dominant at the high school level, as Stephenson was, you can't help but to do so. Stephenson attended Lincoln High School in Coney Island, New York, leading his team to the city championship in all four years, and becoming the all-time leading scorer in New York high school history. Still, despite all of his talent, Stephenson always found a way to draw criticism.

In 2008, he was charged with sexually abusing a female inside of Lincoln High School. He was also suspended from school and for two games for fighting with his teammate. The same year, he was cut from the Under-18 U.S. National Team because of chemistry and character concerns. He unofficially violated recruiting regulations on his official visit to the University of Maryland and chose to leave the University of Cincinnati after his freshman year, a choice that many called premature.

Stephenson was drafted in the second round and 40th overall by the Indiana Pacers, and warmed the bench for the majority of his first two seasons. He was then arrested in August 2010 for a physical altercation with his girlfriend. Finally, Frank Vogel notoriously and publicly demoted him to fourth string last season for disciplinary reasons.

The public called Stephenson a punk. A waste of talent. A bust.

This is the same guy who was New York Daily News' Player of the Year in back to back seasons in high school. The same guy who followed in the footsteps of Stephon Marbury and Sebastian Telfair at Lincoln High School, and arguably outshined both of them. He was once the top pro prospect coming out of Lincoln, and now teams were passing over him in favor of Andy Rautins, Darington Hobson, Daniel Orton, and Armon Johnson.

What? You're telling me you don't have an Armon Johnson jersey?

Stephenson did struggle on the floor in his first two seasons, but impressed once he received a real opportunity. Remember, he's only 22, and is still developing and learning the intricacies of the NBA game. While I believe staying in college for an extra year would have benefited Stephenson, I can't blame him for wanting to support his family as soon as possible. Danny Granger's injury this season opened the door for Stephenson, and his stellar play and maturity development has helped him to become a regular starter and a viable asset of the Pacer's organization. His Game 6 performance against the Knicks epitomized how far he has truly come.

Game 6 wasn't his only impressive effort in the Eastern Conference semifinals. In Game 1, he scored 11 points, grabbed 13 rebounds, dished 3 assists, and had 3 steals. In Game 4, he had 13 points and 7 rebounds. Finally, in the Pacers series-clinching win, Stephenson had a career-high 25 points and 10 rebounds. Paul George and Roy Hibbert have gotten a lot of attention for the Pacers in their playoff run, and rightfully so, but who would have thought that Lance Stephenson may be their most important player.

He's still got a long way to go. He's an inconsistent shooter and his maturity is still a work in progress. But, if Stephenson is able to keep improving, then he has a great chance to be a starter in this league for many years to come.

If they want to have a chance at dethroning the defending champions, Stephenson will have to be the x-factor. The only real publicity he got in last year's playoff series against the Heat was his infamous choke gesture toward LeBron, and Dexter Pittman subsequently elbowing him in the throat in the following game. This year, Miami better come ready to play. They weren't especially impressive against the short-handed Chicago Bulls, and the Pacers are apt at playing just as physically as Chicago. Dwyane Wade, Stephenson's potential matchup, is banged up, as well, and Stephenson's aggressive motor may bother him. Besides, they were up 2-1 in the series last year before LeBron put his cape on.

I'm not saying the Pacers are going to win the series. I'm just saying Miami needs to take notice. The Pacers size could bother the Heat, and with the emergence of a guy like Stephenson, Miami may have their hands full.

Lance Stephenson may not have been "born ready." But he is sure as hell ready now.

Posted by Robert Campbell at 11:09 AM | Comments (0)

May 21, 2013

Ranking Quarterbacks By Records

I've written this before: judging individual players by the results of their teams is stupid. If the Packers replaced everyone except Aaron Rodgers with the roster from say, Georgia Tech, they'd lose every game. If Justin Verlander was backed up by your old high school team, he'd never win. Take the best goalie in the world, but if his teammates suck badly enough, they're never going to score, and eventually he's going to let something by. That's half the appeal of team sports: you can't win by yourself.

So judging individual players by the results of their teams is stupid. But that hasn't stopped me before, and it's not going to now. Other than maybe MLB pitchers, no player in sports is more often evaluated by the results of the team than an NFL quarterback. Below, I've looked at active QBs to see how their teams did when they played, and when they didn't. The qualifications for inclusion:

* Started at least 20 games for a single team (not necessarily the current team)
* Missed at least 10 games with that same team
* Was on an NFL roster in 2012

Some players have started 20+ games for multiple teams, so they're eligible twice. This study does include players missing most or all of a season, like Tom Brady in 2008 and Peyton Manning in 2011, as well as the reverse: backups who went a whole year without starting. The most notable example of the latter is Aaron Rodgers.

For cases like Brady and Rodgers, though, I only went two years out. Do we really want to compare the Colts' record in 1999 (with Peyton Manning) to 2011 (without him)? Instead, I looked at the Colts from 2009-11. For players who have repeatedly missed games, like Ben Roethlisberger or Tony Romo, we're looking at their whole careers. Twenty-six players qualified for this study, but duplicates mean we're looking at 31 sets of data.

Of course, most players listed here did better than their replacements. Backups are usually backups for a reason — and when they're not, they often stop being backups. Players are listed in ascending order of success.

- .177: Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos, 2006-08
Broncos with Cutler: 17-20 (.459)
Broncos without Cutler: 7-4 (.636)

We start with one that might be a little unfair. The 2005 Broncos were very good. They went 13-3, made it to the AFC Championship Game. In '06, the defense was sensational and the offense a disaster. The team started 7-4, but Jake Plummer was so ineffective that the coaches replaced him with rookie Cutler, who finished the season 2-3. Denver was essentially a .500 team the next couple of years, and that's probably more about the decline of the rest of the team than it is the switch from Plummer to Cutler.

He hasn't missed enough games with Chicago to qualify for this exercise, but since he joined them, the Bears are 34-22 with Cutler and 2-6 without him. More disappointing for Cutler is that by this measure he rates basically even with Kyle Orton. When Denver traded Cutler to Chicago, for Orton and two 1st-round draft picks, the Broncos stayed 8-8 and the Bears dropped from 9-7 to 7-9.

- .146: Kyle Orton, Chicago Bears, 2005-08, Denver Broncos, 2009-11
Bears with Orton: 21-12 (.636)
Bears without Orton: 19-12 (.613)
Broncos with Orton: 12-21 (.364)
Broncos without Orton: 8-7 (.533)

With the Bears, he was a little better than other quarterbacks. With the Broncos, he couldn't hold a candle to Tim Tebow.

I struggled with how to weigh players who qualify for the study with more than one team. I decided on straight addition, so Orton's rating is computed by adding his score with Chicago (+ .023) to his score with Denver (- .169). I realize that's not perfect, but you can't compare a .600 Bears team to the .400 Broncos, and he missed a lot more games with the Bears. Also, just so we're clear, I know that for most the games Orton "missed" he was actually a deliberate backup.

- .115: Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins, 2006-09
Washington with Campbell: 20-32 (.385)
Washington without Campbell: 6-6 (.500)

Like Cutler, Campbell suffers from the decline of his team. In his first two seasons, Washington went 3-6 with Mark Brunell, 8-12 with Campbell, and 3-0 with Todd Collins. Then Joe Gibbs retired and Jim Zorn became head coach. In '08, Campbell had his best season and the team finished 8-8. The next year, they plummeted to 4-12, and that's heavy on Campbell's record. He didn't play enough games with the Raiders to draw many conclusions, but his 11-7 record with Oakland was far better than 5-11 with Bruce Gradkowski and Carson Palmer.

- .033: Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings, 2006-10
Vikings with Jackson: 10-10 (.500)
Vikings without Jackson: 32-28 (.533)

In 2007, Minnesota was 8-4 in Jackson's starts, compared to 0-4 without him. What mostly hurts his record is the '09 season, when Brett Favre started every game and the team went 12-4. That team had a good defense, an easy schedule, and Adrian Peterson. Jackson almost certainly would have won double-digit games, too, if he'd been the starter all season.

- .013: Matt Schaub, Houston Texans, 2007-12
Texans with Schaub: 44-36 (.550)
Texans without Schaub: 9-7 (.563)

This is surprising, isn't it? Schaub started every game in 2009, 2010, and 2012. Houston went 27-21 in those seasons, and Schaub made two Pro Bowls. In 2011, the Texans started 7-3, then Schaub got hurt and they went 3-3 with T.J. Yates. They were also better with Schaub (6-5) than without him (2-3) in '08. But in 2007, Schaub posted a 4-7 record, then he got hurt and the mighty Sage Rosenfels went 4-1 in his absence. The improvement was much more about Mario Williams coming into his own than it was about Rosenfels, but that's why Schaub rates where he does. I warned you at the beginning that this whole idea was kind of stupid.

- .010: Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns, 2010-12
Browns with McCoy: 6-15 (.286)
Browns without McCoy: 8-19 (.296)

Ever since they returned to the NFL in 1999, it hasn't really mattered who plays quarterback for the Browns.

+ .006: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals, 2003-10
Bengals with Palmer: 46-51 (.474)
Bengals without Palmer: 14-16-1 (.468)

Palmer started every game for the Bengals from 2005-07 and 2009-10. Jon Kitna went 10-9 in Palmer's first two seasons, and Ryan Fitzpatrick managed a 4-7-1 mark in '08. Palmer himself posted a 0-4 record that season.

+ .007: Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins, 2009-11
Dolphins with Henne: 13-18 (.419)
Dolphins without Henne: 7-10 (.412)

I remember Chad Henne's second game. For one week, he was the next Dan Marino. The 2009 Dolphins started 0-3 with Chad Pennington, but rebounded to win 7 games with Henne. He sunk back to basically even with the team in 2011, going 0-4 before he was injured and replaced by Matt Moore, who went 6-6.

+ .020: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 2006-12
Packers with Rodgers: 52-26 (.667)
Packers without Rodgers: 22-12 (.647)

I know Rodgers was on the Packers in '05, but I don't see what we gain by comparing the Packers now to the Packers three years before Rodgers became starter. The non-Rodgers record is 21-11 Brett Favre, 1-1 Matt Flynn.

+ .042: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2002-10
Jaguars with Garrard: 39-37 (.513)
Jaguars without Garrard: 32-36 (.471)

You wouldn't guess it from his so-so rating in this exercise, but I believe Garrard is the most underrated QB of his generation. He came into his own around 2007, passing for 18 TDs and only 3 INTs, with a 102.2 passer rating. He went 9-3 as starter and led Jacksonville to a postseason win before they were eliminated by the 16-0 Patriots.

The next two seasons, Garrard played every game, and the Jags didn't do particularly well (12-20). What a lot of people didn't realize was that the team was falling apart, with Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew the main pieces holding it together. In 2010, Garrard went 8-6 as starter, posted a 90.8 passer rating, and rushed for 5 TDs. In 2011, the Jaguars cut him at the end of preseason. They fell from 8-8 (8-6 with Garrard) to 5-11, then 2-14. Those numbers don't count toward the "Jaguars without Garrard" figures, but I think it's obvious at this point that the Jags cut their best QB and crippled their own offense. The table below shows Jacksonville's ranks in offensive yardage, scoring, and team passer rating.

Garrard's 2010 rating, 90.8, would have tied for 10th. In just two games, his backups dropped that to 83.4. In the team's first year without Garrard, its collective passer rating checked in at 62.2. The offensive drop-off is similar (though less dramatic) to the Colts when Peyton Manning got hurt. Such a mild positive rating for Garrard, + .042, doesn't reflect his true value.

+ .045: Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2003-06
Jaguars with Leftwich: 24-20 (.545)
Jaguars without Leftwich: 10-10 (.500)

I did not rig the numbers to get Leftwich and Garrard back-to-back. Actually, a math error caused me to initially rate Garrard at + .048, one spot ahead, and I was tempted to leave him there to reinforce my point. Oh well.

Leftwich's advantage is all from 2003, when he went 5-8 in place of Mark Brunell (0-3). Compared to David Garrard, he's basically even, 19-12 (.613) against Garrard's 10-7 (.588). That puts Leftwich up by a game or two, but Simpson's Paradox is in play. Look at their records year by year:

Each season, they're basically equal. Leftwich has a better overall winning percentage because he started more games in 2005, when the team as a whole was at its best.

+ .079: Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers, 2005-12
49ers with Smith: 38-36-1 (.513)
49ers without Smith: 23-30 (.434)

From 2005-10, Smith was 19-31 (.380) and other Niner QBs were 18-28 (.391). When Jim Harbaugh became coach and the team suddenly got good, Smith's record (19-5-1) is basically the same as Colin Kaepernick's (5-2). This is Simpson's Paradox again: Smith's backups played a lot when the team was bad, but Smith has handled 80% of the games since they got good.

+ .105: Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears, 2003-08
Bears with Grossman: 19-12 (.613)
Bears without Grossman: 33-32 (.508)

Grossman comes out roughly equal to Kyle Orton, .640 to .636. But Grossman played little his first two years, going 3-3 while his fellow QBs compiled a record of 9-17. I actually think Orton is a better QB than Grossman or Tim Tebow, but I'm following my own rules.

+ .115: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions, 2009-12
Lions with Stafford: 17-28 (.378)
Lions without Stafford: 5-14 (.263)

Stafford has started every game the last two seasons. He missed time mostly when the Lions were coming out of their 0-16 hole, so both he and his backups have poor records for that time. The difference is that his backups didn't play in the surprising 2011 season, when Stafford passed for 5,038 yards and Detroit went 10-6.

+ .117: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, 2006-12
Cowboys with Romo: 55-38 (.591)
Cowboys without Romo: 9-10 (.474)

Romo actually was the first quarterback who got me thinking about this project. Few players are more often criticized, so it was no surprise when Romo's offseason contract garnered negative attention. But other than in 2010 — when the Cowboys started 1-7 with Wade Phillips and (mostly) Romo, compared to 5-3 with Jason Garrett and (mostly) Jon Kitna — the team has consistently done better with Romo than with other QBs, including established players like Drew Bledsoe and Kitna.

Romo has made some high-profile mistakes, but in seven years as starter, he's never had a passer rating below 90, and he's thrown almost twice as many TDs (177) as INTs (91). Romo is not Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but he's not easily replaceable. I get that a lot of people don't like him, but he's a very good player.

+ .125: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills, 2007-10
Bills with Edwards: 14-18 (.438)
Bills without Edwards: 10-22 (.313)

Yes, the Bills were better with Captain Checkdown than they were without him. At first, anyway. From 2007-08, Buffalo went 12-11 when Edwards started, compared to 2-7 without him. In the 2009-10 seasons, Edwards was 2-7 (.222) and the other starters 8-15 (.348). His confidence and decision-making eventually became a serious problem, but many Buffalo fans are too hard on the QB who brought them out of the J.P. Losman era.

This study only includes active players, and Edwards is still in the NFL. Last season, he threw 2 passes for the Philadelphia Eagles, both completions.

+ .134: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers, 2004-12
Steelers with Ben: 87-39 (.690)
Steelers without Ben: 10-8 (.556)

In a nine-year career, Roethlisberger has started every game only once, but he's never missed more than four starts in any season. The Steelers are good enough that they've done well even without him, and the team has done well in holding on to capable backups like Byron Leftwich and Charlie Batch.

+ .135: Charlie Batch, Detroit Lions, 1998-2001
Lions with Batch: 19-27 (.413)
Lions without Batch: 5-13 (.278)

The Lions were a decent team in the '90s, with good players like Barry Sanders and Chris Spielman. In 1998, though, they began 0-4 and were so desperate they turned to a rookie from Eastern Michigan. Batch had one of the finest rookie seasons ever and the team won five of its last 12 games. Batch played well again the following season and Detroit made the playoffs. After a decent year in 2000, Matt Millen came on as GM and the Lions became the Lions. Batch went 0-9 in 2001 and spent the rest of his career as a reliable backup for the Steelers.

+ .166: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills, 2009-12
Bills with Fitzpatrick: 19-31 (.380)
Bills without Fitzpatrick: 3-11 (.214)

We spoke about Trent Edwards like three entries ago. Edwards eventually became so risk-averse that Bills fan dubbed him Captain Checkdown for his refusal to throw downfield. In his last two seasons, Edwards was 2-7, Fitzpatrick 8-13, and Brian Brohm 0-2.

+ .169: Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs, 2009-12
Chiefs with Cassel: 19-28 (.404)
Chiefs without Cassel: 4-13 (.235)

This doesn't include his year with the Patriots, because he only made 15 starts. Last season, both Cassel and Brady Quinn went 1-7 as starter. But in 2010, Cassel played well and the Chiefs made a surprise playoff run, going 10-5 with Cassel and 10-6 overall.

+ .204: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks, 2001-10, Tennessee Titans, 2011-12
Seahawks with Hasselbeck: 69-62 (.527)
Seahawks without Hasselbeck: 14-15 (.483)
Titans with Hasselbeck: 11-10 (.524)
Titans without Hasselbeck: 4-7 (.364)

The Titans have better results with Hasselbeck than with Jake Locker, and almost all of his score is derived from that, a young QB who's only started a dozen games. More surprising is that with Seattle, Hasselbeck did not noticeably outperform his backups.

From 2003-07, when the Seahawks made the playoffs every year, Hasselbeck went 47-27, and Seattle was 4-2 when he didn't play. But in his first two seasons, Hasselbeck was less effective (10-12) than other QBs (6-4), and after '07, he was basically equal (12-23) to Seneca Wallace (4-9).

+ .238: Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns, 2006-09
Browns with Anderson: 16-18 (.471)
Browns without Anderson: 7-23 (.233)

I don't think anyone quite understands what happened to Anderson and the Browns in 2007, when they went 10-6. Over the rest of his career in Cleveland, Anderson was only marginally better (.316) than other QBs (.241).

+ .294: Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons, 2001-06, Philadelphia Eagles, 2009-12
Falcons with Vick: 38-28-1 (.575)
Falcons without Vick: 9-20 (.310)
Eagles with Vick: 18-16 (.529)
Eagles without Vick: 15-15 (.500)

This is basically about one season: 2003. The Falcons went 2-10 while Vick recovered from injury, far below the team's standard from 2001-06. Atlanta didn't bottom out again until ... 2007, when Vick went to jail.

The "Eagles without Vick" record includes an 11-5 mark in 2009, the last year with Donovan McNabb. It's easy to forget that Philadelphia's most successful season since Vick joined the team was the year he didn't play. It still blows me away that so many people in the sports media promoted Vick as an MVP candidate in 2010, when he led the Eagles to a 10-6 record that was worse than their performance the year before.

+ .325: Jon Kitna, Seattle Seahawks, 1998-2000, Cincinnati Bengals, 2001-05, Detroit Lions, 2006-08
Seahawks with Kitna: 17-15 (.531)
Seahawks without Kitna: 6-10 (.375)
Bengals with Kitna: 18-28 (.391)
Bengals without Kitna: 17-17 (.500)
Lions with Kitna: 10-26 (.278)
Lions without Kitna: 0-12 (.000)

Jon Kitna is one of those players who makes me wonder, one of those "what if things had happened differently" guys. Every time he's gotten a chance to play, it's been with a below-average team. That's understandable, because Kitna's never played well enough that a good team would want him, and he's never quite been good enough to change a bad team into a good one.

But if he had ended up on a team that got good — quality offensive line, solid defense, things like that — I think he was good enough that he would have won a lot of games, and we'd view him a lot differently. Even in Cincinnati, he didn't play badly. The 2001-02 Bengals were amazingly bad. Kitna went 8-19 with those teams, which is awful (.296), but the other QBs went 0-5. His record is lower than the team's because he played a lot when the Bengals were bad, and by the time they got good he'd given way to Carson Palmer. Palmer started every game in the playoff year (2005), and that counts against Kitna's record. On the other hand, Kitna had the good fortune to miss most of the Lions' winless 2008, and that's why he rates so highly here.

+ .329: Tom Brady, New England Patriots, 2000-12
Patriots with Brady: 87-24 (.784)
Patriots without Brady: 15-18 (.455)

The records here only include 2000-03 and 2006-10; Brady's overall regular record with New England is 110-32 (.775). From 2000-01, Drew Bledsoe's record as starter was 5-13. In Week 1 of 2008, Brady suffered a season-ending injury, and Matt Cassel went 10-5 in his stead. Comparing Brady only to Cassel (.667), he'd rate much lower.

+ .625: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 1998-2012
Colts with Manning: 24-8 (.750)
Colts without Manning: 2-14 (.125)

The Colts' collapse without Manning in 2011 is one of the most remarkable in the history of sports, and a powerful testament to the importance of an extraordinary player.

I only evaluated Manning's record in the two seasons before his injury. His complete record with the Colts was 141-67 (.678). That includes some rocky seasons early — Indianapolis compiled a record of 32-32 in his first four seasons — followed by nine years of consistent excellence (.757), during which Manning won a record four NFL MVP Awards.

The full list of quarterbacks:

- .177: Jay Cutler
- .146: Kyle Orton
- .115: Jason Campbell
- .033: Tarvaris Jackson
- .013: Matt Schaub
- .010: Colt McCoy
+ .006: Carson Palmer
+ .007: Chad Henne
+ .020: Aaron Rodgers
+ .042: David Garrard
+ .045: Byron Leftwich
+ .079: Alex Smith
+ .105: Rex Grossman
+ .115: Matthew Stafford
+ .117: Tony Romo
+ .125: Trent Edwards
+ .134: Ben Roethlisberger
+ .135: Charlie Batch
+ .166: Ryan Fitzpatrick
+ .169: Matt Cassel
+ .204: Matt Hasselbeck
+ .238: Derek Anderson
+ .294: Michael Vick
+ .325: Jon Kitna
+ .329: Tom Brady
+ .625: Peyton Manning

It's a strange ranking, with undistinguished players like Cassel and Kitna rating far ahead of stars like Rodgers and Romo. I warned you at the beginning that judging individuals by team results was ridiculous. These numbers are subject to dozens of important variables, most notably the quality of the other QBs. Calculating these numbers for Joe Montana would rank him about the same as Alex Smith.

The takeaway here is probably a second look at players we may have dismissed. Guys like Trent Edwards, Derek Anderson, and Jon Kitna all rate higher than we'd probably expect. Maybe that's just the nature of this silly project, but maybe some of these players have gotten more criticism than they deserve.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:04 PM | Comments (0)

May 20, 2013

The More Things Change

The San Antonio Spurs opened the Western Conference Finals Sunday with a dominant 105-83 win over Memphis. It was a satisfying win for the West's elder statesmen, especially compared to the last time these two teams met in the postseason.

Two springs ago, the upstart Grizzlies pulled off one of the NBA's great playoff upsets, beating the heavily favored Spurs. It was only the fourth time an eight seed defeated a conference's top seed, but beyond that fact, the symbolism was shocking.

The Spurs were, and still are, NBA old money. Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich won their first title together in 1999, in a time when people thought changing the first digit in the year would result in electronic Armageddon. Their partnership, which added Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili along the way, has bested Shaq, Kobe, Shaq and Kobe, Uptempo Suns, Slow Tempo Knicks, and even LeBron James. If the toughest part of winning a championship is just being around for the Playoffs' money rounds, the Spurs have held an embarrassment of lottery tickets.

By contrast, the 2011 Grizzlies were, well, not accomplished. I don't mean less accomplished in comparison to their competitors; Memphis had never won a playoff game. A cupcake matchup like this should have aired on Food Network.

So when those Grizzlies jumped out to win Game 1 of that series, it was a milestone for the franchise. These are the kinds of pyrrhic accomplishments that often offer young teams a convenient and easy way out. Progress is the antidote to embarrassment, and finally winning a playoff game could have been a satisfying dose. But Memphis remained unimpressed with its baby steps and lunged toward a series win in six decisive games.

Of course, when an historical upset happens, writers create narratives to explain them.

Some of the focus was on Memphis, a joke of a franchise since its inception in Vancouver. The Grizzlies had turned Marc Gasol, the convenient punching bag thrown into a trade for his brother Pau, and Zach Randolph, the mal-est of malcontents, into a punishing front court. In a league that rewards teams who master a particular skill rather than demonstrating competence for many, Memphis' win seemed like the announcement of a new set of a twin towers, ironically coming at the expense of the franchise that similarly rode David Robinson and Tim Duncan to a title.

But really, the main story two years ago was as pre-written as the obituary for a centenarian monarch; the Spurs were old, and the grim reaper had finally called.

Few NBA teams experience decline. For starters, the concept requires a level of achievement from which anyone would even notice a downturn. But the pattern is oft-repeated. After sustained success, the attrition of personnel mobility or the erosion of physical skills lowers the ceiling of performance just enough that the other elite athletes in the league believe they can compete. And once the glow of invincibility leaves the team atop the mountain, the barbarians stream over the hills.

In 2011, the hour of the Spurs' decline was inevitable.

Except it wasn't.

San Antonio rolled through the 2011-12 season, bested deep in the playoffs by great performances from a young, but certainly not upstart, Oklahoma City team. And again this year, Gregg Popovich's team has leveraged the one skill it dominates the NBA in, experience, for a live hand in another championship tournament.

When we compare timelines, we often cherry pick in the interest of amazement, but consider the shifts within the NBA during San Antonio's run. Since that first Tim Duncan/Greg Popovich title, LeBron James started high school, was drafted, played out two contracts in Cleveland, and is a year shy of signing his fourth deal.

Just two years ago, the Spurs' current opponent was an improving squad that was looking for its first playoff win. In a fraction of the San Antonio dynasty's span, that group has become an imposing team with a credible chance to win the NBA championship.

And this kind of change is common. The league may not churn like the NFL, but the potential for upward mobility keeps fans of losing franchises interested.

Longevity is underrated. There is something to be said for moments of greatness: dunks that defy gravity and winning streaks that span Zodiac signs. But the greatest compliment for success like San Antonio's is the silence from the peanut gallery.

Popovich and Duncan are winning playoff games on the brink of summer. What else is there to say?

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 8:59 AM | Comments (0)

May 17, 2013

Foul Territory: Chokes and Chickens

* Crash of the Titus, or This Has to Be the First Time Young Has Been Double-teamed — Former Detroit Lions receiver Titus Young was arrested for the third time in a week after he was booked for burglary, assaulting a police officer, and resisting arrest after a foot chase and a scuffle with officers. Unlike Young's skills as a wide receiver, there seems to be a pattern developing.

* Domestic Flattery — Floyd Mayweather topped Sports Illustrated's list of the highest-earning athletes in the United States, projected to rake in $90 million in 2013. Mayweather beat LeBron James, Tiger Woods, and Kobe Bryant. Surprisingly, no ex-girlfriends were on the list.

* Spanish Inhibition, or Three in the Drink, One in the Stink, or Sergi-Eau — Tiger Woods won The Players Championship on Sunday with a final round 70, while Sergio Garcia hit three in the water on the final two holes en route to a 76. Garcia played the final two holes in 6 over par, so, once again, he can say he's done more "swinging" than Woods.

* The NBA Put the "Owe" in "Thibodeau" — Chicago Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau was fined $35,000 for critical comments made about the officiating in the Bulls' Game 3 loss to the Miami Heat. When Thibodeau learned of the amount of the fine, he was floored.

* Put Me in Coach, I'm Ready to Play (For Pay), or Rock, Chalk, One Year, Then Walk, or Self-Control — No. 1-rated high school recruit Andrew Wiggins announced that he will attend Kansas and play for Bill Self. Wiggins is expected to play one year and then enter the NBA draft, a path known as "graduating" in Lexington, Kentucky.

* Bye Heave — Donovan McNabb will officially retire as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles on September 19th when the Eagles host the Kansas City Chiefs. McNabb is expected to be sick with emotion.

* Flight-ing Irish — Michigan football coach Brady Hoke said Notre Dame "chickened out" when the Irish pulled out of their annual rivalry game with the Wolverines. Former Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o said Hoke need not worry, because they can always pretend there's still a game.

* Here Comes Nothing, or From Russia With "Love" — Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin will join Russia's squad at the hockey world championships in Finland. Judging by his five-game playoff scoring drought, the Scandinavian country may be the only place Ovechkin is able to "Finnish."

* If Ray Lewis Spent That Much, He'd Grow Antlers — Cincinnati Bengals linebacker James Harrison said he spends roughly $400,000 annually maintaining his body through the rigors of NFL football. Apparently, the Bengals aren't the only ones who have spent too much on Harrison.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

May 16, 2013

2013 CFL Primer

Football is just a little over a month away!

It's time again for my look ahead to what is the most satisfying form of football to get one through the offseason. Most Americans dismiss the CFL out of hand, either because they disdain the 3 downs, 110-yard field between the end zones, or conceding a point on touchbacks, or because they instinctively make fun of anything Canadian, which is an instinct I share. Nonetheless, the product is much closer the NFL/college rules than Arena Football, and is the second-best professional league in the world in terms of talent.

This year, I'm calling it a primer rather than a preview, because I can't pretend I know enough to make an educated forecast.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

Players You Might Remember From Their College/NFL Days: RB Dominic Rhodes, RB Noel Devine, LB Steve Octavien

The Als are lead by their ageless quarterback Anthony Calvillo, who has lead the team to multiple Eastern Conference titles over the last decade. He'll be 41 in August and is still elite. Montreal was active in the offseason, picking up another CFL legend Arland Bruce, as they try to maintain conference supremacy.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

Players You Might Remember From Their College/NFL Days: QB Alex Brink, RB Gerald Riggs, Jr., WR Juaquin Iglesias

The Argonauts limped into the playoffs last year at 10-8, and then went on to win the whole thing. Their star is ex-Hawaii receiver Chad Owens, who was the league's Most Outstanding Player and set a CFL record for most all-purpose yards in a season in 2012.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

Players You Might Remember From Their College/NFL Days: QB Max Hall, RB Chad Simpson, CB Demond Washington.

The Blue Bombers have been something of a floundering franchise, making the playoffs only one of the last four seasons, in a league where six of the eight teams get in. Being the most centrally-located CFL franchise, they have switched between the Western Conference and the Eastern Conference multiple times depending on the fates of other franchises, and will again switch in 2014 when Ottawa re-enters the league.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

Players You Might Remember From Their College/NFL Days: QB Jeremiah Masoli, QB Henry Burris, CB Dee Webb

The Ti-Cats are something of the Arizona Cardinals of the CFL, a franchise with less historical or recent success than their peers. Henry Burris, who had a brief and disastrous stint with the Chicago Bears in 2002, is perhaps second only behind Anthony Calvillo in terms of CFL quarterback star power. His first year with Hamilton was insane statistically but the Ti-Cats porous defense still lead to a playoff miss.

BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS

Players You Might Remember From Their College/NFL Days: WR Courtney Taylor, G Patrick Kabongo, DB Terrail Lambert

If the Ti-Cats are the Cardinals of the NFL, then the Lions the Steelers or the Packers of the league, having not missed the playoffs since 1996. Perhaps tellingly, they also seem the franchised least inclined to make splashy "import" free agent signings. They play at BC Place, which has a retractable roof, a factoid they only share with Toronto, who play at the Rogers Centre (where they Blue Jays play; you may remember it as the Sky Dome). Based on no kind of data and only what I remember seeing, it seems like the Rogers Center roof is usually open and BC Place's is usually closed, giving the Lions the appearance as the CFL's "dome" team.

SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS

Players You Might Remember From Their College/NFL Days: WR Limas Sweed, RB Stephfon Green, QB Darian Durant

While I am comparing CFL teams to NFL teams, the Riders remind me a bit of the New York Giants. They are constantly trying to keep their head above water in a very competitive division, but when they succeed, they succeed to the fullest: they made the Grey Cup in three of their last five playoff appearances, and in two of those, they did not get a playoff bye.

The comparisons to the Giants end there, however. They are the only major professional sports team in the province (the only CFL team that can say that), and have historically have been more doormat than power.

CALGARY STAMPEDERS

Players You Might Remember From Their College/NFL Days: QB Darron Thomas, QB Drew Tate, DL Alex Watkins

The Stamps are the team always battling BC for Western Conference supremacy. They are lead by running back Jon Cornish, who last year broke the single-season rushing record by a native Canadian. He also holds the single-season rushing record for the Kansas Jayhawks.

EDMONTON ESKIMOS

Players You Might Remember From Their College/NFL Days: QB Jacory Harris, QB Jonathan Crompton, S Cary Harris

The Eskimos have only made the playoffs four of the last seven seasons. While that may not sound bad, consider that they never missed the playoffs between 1972-2005. Needless to say, this is the CFL's most storied franchise, but, like perhaps the Dolphins or Vikings, their points of pride are in the past, not the present.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 1:59 PM | Comments (1)

May 15, 2013

Grizzlies Roaring to New Heights

The NBA playoffs, versus the postseason in any other major American sport, and especially those with single-elimination formats, are thought to be the most chalk-stained and uncompelling by many. In many years, the first and second rounds act as more of a weeding-down process in order to get to the teams that had the best records. Rarely do the teams like the 1999 Knicks eke into the postseason with records barely above .500 and end up playing in June.

In the Eastern Conference, the playoff status quo looks to be holding. Sure, the Bulls won a Game 7 in Brooklyn with an injury ward of a team, and there's a good chance the Pacers will take their second round series with the Knicks as the lower-seeded team. But both those series were toss-ups to start and, in each case, did or will determine the right to be a massive underdog to the juggernaut Heat.

But in the Western Conference, much as last year's East playoffs were thrown into flux by Derrick Rose's ACL, an injury to a star player has helped make proceedings much more wide open.

Before Game 2 of the Rockets-Thunder series, Oklahoma City was the favorite to make a return trip the Finals out of the conference. Even though it squeaked out that contest and Game 3, the Thunder still had a nervy six-game series with the Rockets, which made it clear that Oklahoma City was transformed from dynamic offensive team to a one-man, predictable show.

The biggest beneficiary of the injury in Oklahoma City and others elsewhere in the West has been the Thunder's current opponent and likely playoff conqueror, Memphis.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece extolling the playoff potential of the Denver Nuggets (oops). In it, I briefly previewed the possible series between the top contenders in the West, who I viewed to be Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Denver. I assumed that the Clippers would have issues with coaching, and that the Grizzlies, even if they did get past L.A., wouldn't be strong enough on offense to match Oklahoma City. Now, with Westbrook gone, Memphis' big man-centric offense is doing wonders.

The fact that Oklahoma City's point guard is done for the season isn't the only reason the Grizzlies are in position to make the franchise's first conference finals appearance, with a chance at making the NBA Finals.

The Grizzlies' contender status may have paradoxically started back in January when the team traded leading scorer Rudy Gay to Toronto as part of a three-team deal with the Pistons. In return, Memphis received Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis. The deal was made in large part to get the Grizzlies under the luxury tax threshold, but it's paid enormous dividends.

Since Gay's departure, Mike Conley has been one of the league's best point guards, in no small part due to the fact that he sees much more of the ball now and can distribute to the best power forward-center tandem in the NBA in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. What makes Conley's rise that much more amazing is that he's come so far in his sixth season, a career juncture where a point guard's status is normally well-entrenched.

The most captivating aspect of Memphis' playoff success is how different the Grizzlies are from the style the league has been trending towards.

There may still be five traditional positions on a basketball court in an NBA game, but you wouldn't know it many times. The "point forward" role is a genre in and of itself now, and you can't watch a game now without talk of small ball by one of the teams. Miami, the class of the league and possibly the greatest team in 15 years, won a title last year in significant part because it outclassed OKC with smaller lineups and unconventional matchups that took advantage of quickness.

However, Memphis' title contention is a throwback to the not-too-distant (we're talking like five years ago here) time when dominant centers and post scorers ruled the NBA roost and delivered championships for their teams. In Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies certainly have a championship-caliber center who can change a game with offense, defense, rebounding and even passing. In Zach Randolph, the Grizz have an old-school bully in the post, who gets his points with strength, positioning and footwork.

And somehow, I've gotten to this point without mentioning the Grizzlies' bread and butter, their defense, anchored down low by Gasol and on the perimeter by the incredible Tony Allen, the best on-ball defender in basketball. Without Westbrook around, it's been a treat to see how Memphis has outwitted the impotent Thunder offense, especially on crunch time possessions. Kevin Durant has struggled so much in the fourth quarter (Game 1 aside) that is clutch bona fides are now being questioned, when Memphis' stellar defense should be lauded more.

Assuming they close out Oklahoma City in the coming days, the question is, can the Grizzlies go to the finals by beating either Golden State or San Antonio. With the Warriors, one would think Allen and Memphis' defensive schemes would finally represent the anecdote to the thrilling Stephen Curry craze and bombs-away gameplan of Golden State.

With San Antonio, Memphis took down the Spurs two years ago in the playoffs with many of the same players behind Randolph's tour de force performance, and Gasol and Conley have improved since April 2011. While San Antonio has Tim Duncan playing better than he did then, and Kawhi Leonard as a newer offensive weapon, it's still a favorable matchup for Memphis.

The Grizzlies, despite their 56 regular season wins, weren't supposed to challenge for a title this season. Yet, after continued stellar play, the Grit & Grind Grizzlies aren't only among the elite, they're a contender for the ultimate prize.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 5:37 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 11

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished fourth in the Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington, posting his sixth top-five of the year and increasing his points lead. He now leads Carl Edwards by 44.

"I've finished outside of the top 12 only once this year," Johnson said. "That's the type of consistency you won't find anywhere, especially not in the NASCAR rule book.

"I invite NASCAR to give my car the once-over. I have nothing to hide, and neither does Chad Knaus, save for his receding hairline. The measure of a driver shouldn't be made in millimeters or grams, but in Cup championships. That makes me the 'heavy.'"

2. Carl Edwards — Edwards took seventh in Darlington, scoring his seventh top-10 result of the season. He trails Jimmie Johnson by 44 in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"It was a heck of a week for Kenseth," Edwards said. "He was two for two — he beat the field and the system."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished ninth in the Southern 500 in a race dominated by the Toyotas of Joe Gibbs Racing. Earnhardt now holds the fourth spot in the point standings, trailing Jimmie Johnson by 64.

"Gibbs cars claimed the 1, 2, and 6 spots," Earnhardt said. "Unfortunately for them, it's in the inspection line. Inspecting a JGR engine is a lot like taking a walk through the camping area of Junior Nation — there's no telling what you'll find, but chances are, it's illegal."

4. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth took the lead from Kyle Busch with 13 laps to go and sailed to the win in the Southern 500, his first win at Darlington. His third win of the year boosted him to third in the point standings, 59 out of first.

"Hopefully," Kenseth said, "Busch isn't the only thing I'll 'pass' this week.

"Recent history suggests I should possibly delay in celebrating this victory. I think we all, inspectors included, know that's a 'proper wait.'"

5. Kyle Busch — Busch led a race-high 265 laps at Darlington, but faltered over the final ten laps due to a leaking rear tire and finished sixth. Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin finished first and second, respectively.

"Nothing takes the air out of sails like the air out of your tires," Busch said. "That tire snatched the win right out from under me. I guess you would call it 'burn' rubber."

"My brother Kurt just completed his rookie test for the Indianapolis 500, thus giving him a license to compete in the 500. I say that's unfair. When I went over 200 miles per hour in a borrowed car, I had my license taken."

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished 11th at Darlington, joining Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Martin Truex, Jr. in the top 12. Bowyer is now fifth in the point standings, 74 out of first.

"They call Darlington Raceway the 'Lady In Black,'" Bowyer said. "According to David Gilliland, that wasn't the only female at the track. There was one he called the 'Bitch in Green.'"

7. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished nine laps down in 32nd at Darlington, two weeks after an equally-disappointing 33rd at Richmond. The defending Sprint Cup champion is sixth in the point standings, 97 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Johnson has enough Cups to fill a trophy case," Keselowski said. "I have enough to fill a jock strap.

"After winning the Cup last year, I haven't done much this season. I guess that's why you haven't heard a peep, nor a tweet, from me."

8. Denny Hamlin — In his first full race since injuring his back at California, Hamlin finished second in the Southern 500 as Joe Gibbs teammate Matt Kenseth won.

"I needed medical clearance before I could race," Hamlin said. "And I got it. Here at Gibbs Racing, we like to say I 'passed inspection.'"

9. Kasey Kahne — While challenging Kyle Busch for the lead with 33 laps to go, Kahne's No. 5 Time Warner Cable Chevy got loose and slammed the wall. Kahne eventually finished 17th and is now sixth in the point standings, 97 out of first.

"Including Daytona and Talladega," Kahne said, "that's the third time this year Kyle and I have made contact that resulted in a wreck. I'm not happy. Kyle's 'razing Kahne,' so I'll 'give 'im hell.'"

10. Kevin Harvick — One week after a 40th at Talladega, Harvick rebounded with a fifth in the Bojangles' Southern 500. It was only Harvick's second top-five finish of the year.

"Toyotas have won six races this year," Harvick said. "I've won one, and it was called the 'Toyota Owners 400.' That's called 'irony,' and it also applies to a Japanese automaker dominating an American sport. To the head honchos at NASCAR, that's got to be 'dis-Orient-ing.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:18 AM | Comments (0)

May 14, 2013

Minority Coaches in the NFL

The Rooney Rule is a decade old now. I won't use this space to opine on whether it's working or even whether it's a good idea. But it does seem to me that black coaches have to meet a higher standard to keep their jobs, and I wanted to find out if that was true.

I looked at every head coach who has lost his job since the start of the 2002 season. That includes coaches who resigned, retired, or took a different position, since it's not always easy to tell when such moves are voluntary. For simplicity, I've used the blanket term "fired," but that includes retirements, etc. Coaches who have been fired twice will appear twice, once for each job. There are several hypotheses I'm looking to test:

1. Black coaches have to prove themselves more quickly than white coaches, and teams tend to show less patience about firing them.

2. Black coaches who have a bad season are more likely to lose their jobs than white coaches who have a bad season.

3. Black interim coaches are less likely than white interim coaches to be hired full-time.

I'm writing this before my research, so I don't know whether any of those statements are true, but hopefully we can find a reliable way to test them all. Let's begin by separating interim coaches from full-time coaches. The "Prev" column below shows the team's record when the interim coach took over.

* retained as full-time head coach

Since 2002, about 17% of head coaching vacancies — 13 out of 78 — have been filled by an African-American. However, more than half of all interim coaching jobs go to blacks (9/16, 56%). I would suggest four reasons that might contribute to this phenomenon:

1. Most owners and GMs still prefer (consciously or unconsciously) to hire whites, but during the season they need to choose someone from the staff. Many assistants coaches and coordinators are black.

2. At a time when ownership wants to please employees who are upset by losing, they can do so by selecting an African-American interim coach who may be more appealing to players.

3. Owners can hire a black coach for three weeks and then spend the rest of their careers safe from charges of racism, because they once chose a black HC.

4. Interim coaches always get to interview for the permanent job, and black coaches satisfy the Rooney Rule.

The black interim coaches — Robiskie, Thomas, Singletary, Fewell, Frazier, Studesville, Tucker, Crennel, and Bowles — coached an average of 5 games, while the white interim coaches averaged 8 games. This supports the third and fourth ideas above: that management doesn't mind having a minority coach for a few weeks, but if it's a long-term situation, some clubs prefer white coaches.

The black interim coaches compiled a combined record of 20-26 (.435), compared to 20-36 (.357) for the white interim coaches. Three of the five interim coaches who kept their jobs after the season were black. Five coaches is way too few to prove anything one way or another, but let's throw my third hypothesis out the window: there is no evidence to suggest that black interim coaches are less likely than white interim coaches to be hired full-time. It may be true, but there's no meaningful evidence either way.

Now we'll examine "regular" head coaches; interim coaches will appear below only if they were re-hired following the season (Cable, Singletary, Crennel). The "Yrs" column below shows how many seasons the coach held that position. All partial seasons count as one-half.

Over the last decade, six teams have fired their coach after just one season. I hate that, and even after a miserable season like Shell's or Mularkey's, I don't think it's fair — or good for the team. But if there's one coach in this group who really has an argument that he got hosed, it's clearly Hue Jackson, who lost his job when Al Davis died and the new ownership brought in their own man (Dennis Allen).

Three of the six coaches fired after a single year were black, including Jackson. Their combined record was 14-37 (.275), compared to 8-40 (.167) for white coaches.

Let's briefly discuss the four coaches with winning percentages over .400.

Bill Callahan took over the Raiders when Jon Gruden got traded, got them to the Super Bowl, and totally lost the team the following season. If he hadn't inherited such a good team, he might not have lasted past the first season. Nick Saban left the Dolphins to take more money from the University of Alabama. Mike Mularkey has been hired as an NFL head coach twice, and lasted a combined three seasons. The poor guy got two HC jobs, but neither team gave him a real chance to prove himself. The Jaguars were terrible before he got there, and he had a better record in Buffalo than either his predecessor (Gregg Williams, .354) or successor (Dick Jauron, .421).

Mike Singletary is the only black coach on this list. From 2003-07, the 49ers went 25-55 (.313). When they started the '08 season 2-5, the team fired head coach Mike Nolan and replaced him with Singletary. The Niners showed clear improvement, finishing the season 5-4, and Singletary was retained as head coach. In '09, the team had its best season in six years, 8-8. Ownership was so disappointed by a 5-10 record the following season that Singletary was canned with one week to go. Jim Harbaugh replaced him the next year, and has seen far more success with largely the same players.

Four of these 15 coaches are black: Green, Edwards, Caldwell, and Morris. They went a combined 76-116 (.396) before losing their jobs. The 11 white coaches combined to go 179-338 (.346), so the black coaches were fired despite a significantly higher winning percentage.

Those numbers are closer if you exclude Mora and Caldwell, the two coaches over .500. Caldwell took over a very successful team, and he counts for 25% of the black coaches' total, compared to about 10% for Mora among white coaches. But even if you exclude them, the black coaches are still ahead, .347 to .326. However, in their last seasons before getting fired, the black coaches went a combined 13-51 (.203). The white coaches were 48-108 (.308), and that's a significant point in their favor.

Forty-seven of the 85 coaches fired since 2002 lasted three years or less. Fourteen of those 47 were black (30%). If you exclude interim coaches, eight of the 36 (22%) fired within three years were black. Those numbers are roughly in line with what we'd expect, so this doesn't prove any bias. The black coaches, however, guided their teams to a combined record of 125-198 (.387), while the white coaches' combined mark was just 317-648 (.328). The black coaches were fired early despite significantly better records — nearly 20% better — than their white counterparts.

Crennel is the only black coach in this group. His .375 winning percentage is below the .439 average, but with a sample size of one, this obviously isn't significant data. This is also a weird group, because you've got two legends who retired voluntarily (Parcells and Gibbs), one expansion coach (Capers) and another who might as well have been (Davis), plus one who was fired with a winning percentage over .600 (Phillips).

Again, there's only one minority coach in this group, Edwards. He has the second-worst record among these six, but he's also the only one whose team made the playoff three times. Jauron's Bears and Vermeil's Chiefs only played in one postseason apiece, both losing their first game. Wannstedt, Schottenheimer, and Childress all made the playoffs twice with these teams, where they went a combined 2-6. Edwards led the Jets to the playoffs in 2001, 2002, and 2004, going 2-3.

Tony Dungy is the only black coach in this group. All of the white coaches had records between .450 and .625, all but Haslett reached the postseason more than once, and none except Gruden won a Super Bowl. Dungy, who retired voluntarily, won by far the most games, had by far the best winning percentage, made the playoffs every year, and did win a Super Bowl. He doesn't really fit in this group.

Other than Del Rio, all these coaches won more than half their games, and all led teams to the Super Bowl. Smith, the only black coach in the group, was fired after a 10-6 season. His teams finished 7-9 or better every year after his first season, winning three division titles. Smith was a combined 29-19 in his last three seasons, the second-best record in this group (Cowher, 34-14).

It's hard to draw conclusions when there are only one or two black coaches in most of these groups. But we can look at larger data. Excluding interim coaches, we find that black HCs fired since 2002 had a combined record of 337-346 (.493), while white coaches fired during the same period combined to go 2206-2319 (.488). Obviously this doesn't prove anything. We do find, however, that black coaches were retained for an average of 57 games (about 3½ years), compared to 74 games (almost 5 years) for white coaches. This is significant for two reasons:

1. It suggests that black coaches are held to a higher standard, or kept on a shorter leash, than their white peers. Despite virtually identical winning percentages — actually a little higher for African-Americans — their coaching terms are shorter by more than a season.

2. New coaches usually take over bad teams, and are seldom successful in their first year or two. Since the black coaches were fired more quickly, more of their time was spent in the re-building phase, dragging down their records. This implies that looking at the respective records may underrate African-American coaches.

Among the 12 black head coaches in our sample (again, we're not counting interim coaches), a third were fired in under two seasons. Another third were fired after three seasons. The chart below shows what percentage of coaches in the sample began that number of seasons as an NFL head coach:

White coaches have gotten longer terms as HCs than African-Americans, but that is not necessarily evidence of bias. Maybe black coaches were less qualified or performed at a lower level. We've already shown the overall records to be similar, but there's another way to look at this, as well.

In their final seasons — that is, the season during which or immediately after which they were fired — black coaches went a combined 60-131 (.314), while white coaches were 288-587 (.329). In the season before (when applicable), blacks were 80-67 (.544) and whites 426-485-1 (.468). I have four thoughts on those numbers:

1. There is a big difference between .544 and .468. This data supports my second hypothesis, that black coaches who have a bad season are more likely to lose their jobs than white coaches who have a bad season. Among coaches with a track record of success, black coaches tend to get fired after one bad year, while white coaches are more likely to get a second chance.

2. Both black coaches and white coaches tended to perform very poorly in the seasons that prompted their firing. Even if black coaches had done well earlier, they generally were doing very badly when they lost their jobs.

3. There are only 12 lines in our sample of black coaches, and Tony Dungy (who left on his own terms) may be skewing the sample. This could also apply to white coaches like Bill Cowher and Dick Vermeil, but in a sample of 61, that doesn't have as much impact on the averages.

4. If white coaches are more likely to survive a bad season or two, they could also be more likely to get the axe after a mediocre season like 6-10, getting fired for a pattern of mediocrity rather than a single terrible showing. That would drive up the last-year averages while hurting the overall numbers, which is consistent with the data we've seen. Does it hold up? In a word, no.

Beginning in 2002, we find that when teams finished 4-12 or worse, 58% of black coaches and 58% of white coaches got fired. That's 7/12 blacks (58.3%) and 23/40 whites (57.5%). There is absolutely no evidence that teams are more likely to retain white coaches after a season that bad.

The samples we're dealing with are not large, and there are other factors that can influence the data. For instance, are teams that hire black coaches more, less, or equally patient as far as when they choose to change head coaches? I suspect the opposite is actually true, but maybe the same factors that make management more likely to hire a minority coach also make that team more likely to change coaches quickly if things don't turn around right away.

Having acknowledged that we can't control for all relevant factors, let's return to the three hypotheses I made at the top:

1. Black coaches have to prove themselves more quickly than white coaches, and teams tend to show less patience about firing them.
2. Black coaches who have a bad season are more likely to lose their jobs than white coaches who have a bad season.
3. Black interim coaches are less likely than white interim coaches to be hired full-time.

The third point is inconclusive. There's not nearly enough data to draw conclusions at this time. However, the evidence above suggests that the first two ideas may be true. Among black coaches, a much higher percentage were fired before completing two seasons, and more were fired after one bad year, even if they'd done well the season before. Despite similar overall winning percentages, black coaches average about 17½ games less than white coaches.

To my mind, the most important data here concern:

* Percentage of black interim coaches vs. full-time coaches. More than half of all interim coaches are black, so there are obviously qualified minority HC candidates. But under 20% of all long-term hires are black. Unconscious bias, conscious discrimination, or inequities in the interview and hiring process deprive African-Americans of head coaching opportunities.

* Length of coaching term. Black coaches were retained for an average of 57 games (about 3½ years), compared to 74 games (almost 5 years) for white coaches, even though their winning percentages were a little higher. 25% of black coaches were fired after just one season, compared to 7% of white coaches.

* Second chances. Across racial lines, most fired coaches got really terrible results in their final seasons. But black coaches largely did well (.544) in the season before they were fired, while white coaches were much less successful (.468). Black coaches usually get fired the first time they have a bad season. White coaches usually get fired the second time they have a bad season.

Those are statistics, and they don't change depending on how we feel about them. None of this necessarily proves any racial bias, but the numbers we've examined support the idea that to keep their jobs, black coaches need to perform to a higher standard than white coaches. When we combine that with the barriers to getting hired in the first place, it's an uphill battle for minority coaches, and for the league in its efforts to promote diversity in the head coaching ranks.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:38 PM | Comments (0)

May 13, 2013

Lines in the Sand

Seven consecutive national titles have established the might of the Southeastern Conference.

On May 2, the SEC took their might and power to a whole new level.

The announcement of the SEC Network took no one by surprise. Most everyone saw it coming. However, the press conference did draw lines in the sand; lines that will help shape and define the future culture of college athletics. And yes, at this moment, the SEC is that powerful.

The first line was simple. The other power conferences lost a key negotiating chip. The SEC and ESPN did not release financial details. I strongly doubt they ever will. As old contracts expired, conferences continued to attempt to outbid each other in a mad dash for more cash and more exposure. However, the refusal to announce financial information made it firmly clear that the bidding war, if any, will be for second place.

Bob Stoops may not like that. However, the Big 12, nor any other conference, can match the SEC's record in the BCS. The collegiate world is a fight for cash. The key is football. The SEC has held that key for seven straight years. No longer will other conferences get a chance to outbid the current leader. The SEC will reign supreme in terms of cash flow. Despite so many successes on the field, this lone fact might be Mike Slive's top achievement.

The second line was drawn at the one school who bucked the conference trend and launched their own network: Texas, a program that is far from firing on all cylinders.

When the Longhorn Network was launched, it was the Texas way of proclaiming their dominance in the landscape of college athletics. The network, while feeding money into the program, has certainly not been what Texas thought it could be. Meanwhile, Texas A&M, reaping the benefits of their new conference, will only stand as a bigger threat to the Longhorn program, including the Longhorn Network.

Doubtful? Remember, the Longhorn Network gets two football games a season. The SEC Network will have 45. A football-hungry nation will have little trouble finding a feast on the new network; putting Texas A&M, along with the other 13 schools, in more homes. That's not good news for the Longhorns, let alone any other football program.

Finally, the line has been drawn for the smaller conferences that have little to no room at the BCS table. For those schools, the space at the head table is shrinking rapidly.

The "mid-majors" left a chance for a national title to join the ranks of the BCS level schools and rake in more cash for their programs. That's all well and good, except now, with TV being the fuel that drives the economic engine, the mid-majors are again being left behind by the bigger schools.

US News reported in 2011 that Troy had an endowment just shy of $400,000. Alabama spent 10 times that amount just sending its team to the BCS title game in Miami last January.

The SEC Network is a major way of dividing the haves from the definite have-nots. Parity is spreading in other college sports. That's not going to happen anytime soon on the gridiron. While most of the small schools will still gladly accept a paycheck to play the bigger name schools ... and sometimes beat them, the gap in money, facilities and exposure will continue to keep established programs firmly entrenched at the top of the mountain.

They had the power. They made the deal. Lines were drawn.

There might or might not be an eighth straight title. Regardless, the might of the SEC won't be fading away anytime soon.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:41 AM | Comments (0)

May 9, 2013

Ben Chapman, Once and For All

Jackie Robinson suffered few baitings more vicious than those led by Ben Chapman, the former outfielder who managed the Philadelphia Phillies, when Robinson broke into the Show with the 1947 Brooklyn Dodgers. And, yes, it really did get to a point where Chapman's job was on the line, and he posed for a photograph with Robinson — clearly ill at ease — in a bid to turn down the heat he had brought himself and his team.

Chapman's portrait in 42 appears to be about as dead on as such a discomfiting portrait can be, and it is only right and proper that Chapman's behavior in that time and place should be the thing remembered most about him. He may have come from a generation in which mutual ethnic baiting was as normal around baseball as a .300 batting average (I'll explain that shortly), but he alone chose what he chose when along came Robinson, who didn't have the option to fight back, and who — unlike most of the players baiting each other ethnically on the field in Chapman's playing days — wouldn't likely have been welcome in the homes of most of those men.

But it is also said reliably enough that Chapman's racial attitudes changed after he left the major leagues. Allen Barra, in The Atlantic, writes of meeting Chapman and then hearing from those who knew Chapman intimately enough that Chapman came to enjoy talking baseball with black children in black neighborhoods in his native Alabama. "All I can say," one-time Birmingham Barons owner Art Clarkson told Barra, "is that Ben really was a different man in his later years — he acknowledged the error of his old ways."

Chapman died at 84 in 1993. "Because of the success of 42—its opening weekend was the highest of any baseball movie ever—the Ben Chapman portrayed in the movie will certainly define his image in baseball history," Barra writes. "And that's fair. But it's just possible that near the end of his life Chapman did change—or as we say today, he evolved. At least some people who knew him in his later years thought he did, and I think it's fair, also, that in some tiny corner of baseball history that Ben Chapman is be remembered as well."

Fair enough. And now to the question sometimes stirred when those who knew him remember him: did Ben Chapman's racial attitudes, and the notoriety he invited for them especially as a manager, keep him from Cooperstown consideration?

In one word: no.

If you want to look at Chapman's playing career sabermetrically, the WARriors have a quick answer for you: Chapman played fifteen major league seasons and was good for 41.4 wins above a replacement-level player. At this writing he's tied with Jack Fournier at 287th all-time. Let me run down the twenty players behind Chapman and Fournier on the list: Andy Van Slyke, Mark Belanger, Placido Polanco, Roger Bresnahan, George Van Haltren, Augie Galan, Jim Gilliam, Darrell Porter, Mike Griffin, Gil McDougald, David Ortiz, Phil Rizzuto, Tim Salmon, Pete Browning, David Justice, Hardy Richardson, Jim Sundberg, Dick Bartell, Babe Herman, and Carney Lansford.

I see only two Hall of Famers on that list, and both Roger Bresnahan and Phil Rizzuto are considered to have been extremely dubious Hall of Fame picks at best. (Rizzuto probably does belong in Cooperstown — as a broadcaster.) I bet you're surprised to see David Ortiz that low on the WAR chart, too, considering his game-busting image, and when Ortiz finally retires and comes up for Hall of Fame consideration oh boy will the debate over the designated hitter hit fever pitch. But you get the idea. Chapman isn't exactly traveling in overcrowded Cooperstown territory right off the bat.

Chapman finished his career with a .302 batting average. Conceding that the batting average has been devalued overall as a statistic, he did it playing in an era when it wasn't exactly that difficult to hit .300+. His best season for batting average was 1938, when he hit .340 for the Boston Red Sox ... and finished third in the American League batting race. (Jimmie Foxx won the title hitting .348; Jeff Heath of the Cleveland Indians finished second with .343.)

He was three seasons removed from the last one in which he'd led his league in any offensive category. In 1937, divided between the Red Sox and the Washington Senators (who traded him during the season for the Ferrell brothers, Wes and Rick), Chapman led the league in stolen bases, with 35. Come to think of it, it was the only time Chapman ever led his league in steals without leading the league concurrently in being caught stealing. Chapman accomplished that tandem leadership three times and once led the league in being caught but not in stealing successfully.

Except for leading the American League in triples with thirteen in 1934, Chapman never led his league in any other offensive category. He rarely finished in his league's top ten in key offensive categories, even in his early seasons with the New York Yankees. He seems to have been a reliable outfielder who wouldn't necessarily hurt you to any excess on the field or at the plate. Yet the Yankees unloaded Chapman almost as soon as they could in 1936, once their center fielder of the future began proving himself that future. You may have heard of him: Joe DiMaggio.

There were other considerations, from everything I've read about those Yankees, including the possibility that Chapman was so champion an ethnic baiter, even if he was right that the Yankees and every other club in the league had clubhouses chock full of them. And, in fairness, even if Chapman was right that southern ballplayers such as himself often took it at least as bad as, say, Italian or Jewish players did. It probably did prove too much for the Yankees, and it was probably true that Chapman was a goner the moment the Yankees found someone who could out-play him even to a small degree. Finding Joe DiMaggio, of course, which is exactly what happened with the 1936 Yankees, was once-in-a-lifetime stuff.

Chapman seems to have been an early-in-the-order type who had a little long ball power, knew how to reach base by hook or by crook, basically a Pete Rose/Tim Raines type who finished in the top 200 in on-base percentage at this writing. He's ahead of several Hall of Famers on that list, including but not limited to Bill Dickey, Miller Huggins (who's really in Cooperstown as a manager), Enos Slaughter, Lou Boudreau, Mike Schmidt, Nap Lajoie, Tony Lazzeri, Al Simmons, Duke Snider, Carl Yastrzemski, Hank Aaron, George Brett, and Kirby Puckett.

That seems impressive enough. But I'm not convinced you're going to find many people examining the evidence closely and concluding that Ben Chapman was more valuable to his teams than those men were to theirs.

What about his defense? Well, Chapman led his league in assists by a center fielder once, finished top-10 three times, but also led his league in errors by a center fielder twice and finished top-10 there four times. On the other hand, later in his playing career, he managed to lead his league twice in double plays by an outfielder. I'd have to conclude he was about an average defensive outfielder who showed flashes of above average play, but wasn't always consistent with the leather.

The average Hall of Famer scores 27 on the Bill James Black Ink Test (league leadership) and 144 percent on the Gray Ink Test (top 10 league leadership). Chapman scores 9 on the Black Ink and 67 on the Gray Ink. On the James Hall of Fame Monitor, an average Hall of Famer would score 100 of the Monitor and, meeting the James Hall of Fame Standards, 50 percent. Chapman makes 78 on the Monitor and meets 37 percent of the Standards.

A good ballplayer, who sometimes played above his own head, and who might have been just a trifle better than his final statistics show. But it wouldn't be enough to put Ben Chapman in the Hall of Fame, even without the issue that marked him and his image for life.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:01 PM | Comments (0)

May 8, 2013

All the King's Horses

If you should find your step today lightened by the hope of an early Miami Heat exodus from this year's postseason, my guess is that you will come to feel like you’re in cement shoes by week’s end. Opening game upsets like the one pulled off by the Chicago Bulls on Monday night are not a rarity. The Heat lost openers to the Bulls in the 2011 Eastern Finals, and to OKC in last year's NBA Finals, before closing out both series in five games.

Let's not be deluded into thinking Lebron James' "Not one, not two . . ." prophesy has taken a sabbatical. Make no mistake about it: the King and his horses will successfully defend their title over the course of this spring, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy the moment for a while. What Monday’s 93-86 Bulls win does mean is that we’re in for a more compelling series than we had any right to expect, and what’s wrong with that?

You’ve got to hand it to the Chicago Bulls: they are a gritty bunch. After a fully-extended series against the Brooklyn Nets, they limped into Miami without starters Luol Deng and Kirk Heinrich, not to mention the long-missed Derrick Rose, while the Heat enjoyed eight days of South Beach sunshine. Yet it was the Bulls displaying all the energy during the final two minutes of play in Game 1, scoring the final ten points to steal the win.

It was the kind of comeback that makes you wonder what we may have missed last year. The Bulls and Heat were arguably the best in basketball and appeared headed for an Eastern Finals showdown to essentially decide the NBA championship. Then Rose tore his ACL.

On its face, beating Miami is a daunting task, even when they're down a game. Winners of 41 of their previous 43 games going into Monday, the Heat have been on cruise control, ripping through the regular season and opening playoff round. They challenged the Lakers’ seemingly untouchable 33-game winning streak. They fielded the league’s four-time MVP. They earned home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, where they went 37-4 in the regular season. And they are well-rested.

But lest we forget, Chicago is only one year – and one player – removed from sharing top bill. After losing to the Heat in the 2011 Eastern Finals, they earned a top seed last year despite the absence of Rose for nearly half the season due to a previous injury. With him back in the lineup and healthy, they became the league’s last line of defense against an impending Heat dynasty. Then he went down and now the floodgates have opened.

Although no one could have imagined Rose would be shelved for so long – there is still some hope that he’ll make his return in this Heat series – the Bulls nevertheless pushed on, managing a 45-37 record without him, good enough for a fifth seed. They split four regular season games with Miami, including a win that snapped the Heat’s 27-game winning streak in March. On Monday night, they ended Miami’s 8-game postseason win streak. In fact, the Heat have lost three games since February 1, two to Chicago. Is it preposterous to imagine them winning three more times?

Yeah, it is.

For one thing, the early discombobulation in James during Game 1 that was brought on by Jimmy Butler’s harassing defense and Joakim Noah’s lane presence had dissipated completely by the fourth quarter. The Bulls limited Lebron to 2 first-half points on 1-of-6 shooting as he tried to incorporate teammates into the offense, but when the trey-shooting trio of Shane Battier, Mike Miller, and Ray Allen responded with a collective 4-15 from beyond the arc, Lebron stepped it up with 15 points in the fourth quarter.

The rap on James used to be his tendency to give up the ball in key situations. That all changed in Game 6 against the Celtics last year when he singlehandedly took over the Eastern Finals and laid to rest the old King’s legacy. The new one is completely capable of stepping it up and he won't wait so long tonight, or any other to follow. Enough of the kick-outs to streaky-shooting teammates. He and teammate Dwayne Wade will look to drive the lane, with or without Noah's presence. The two combined for a paltry nine free throws between them in Game 1. By contrast, the Bulls’ Butler and minimum-wage guard Nate Robinson each took ten.

Another thing. What are Butler and Robinson going to do for encores? The former is going to need a portable IV if he has to play another 48 minutes and that’s going to cramp his defensive prowess, while the latter is an unlikely source to fuel another 35-point fourth quarter as he did Monday.

Finally, the plentitude of smoke and mirrors Coach Tom Thibodeau has employed in masking the depletion of his troops is going to wear a little thin the longer Deng and Heinrich remain unavailable. Both are doubtful for tonight. And forget about Derrick Rose. At this point, speculation about his return is an unwanted distraction that far outpaces any benefits that could be gained from giving a basketball to a guy who hasn’t touched one in 13 months. Thibodeau will have to go with what got him here. It’ll be enough to carry him the little distance remaining in his 2012-13 odyssey.

Sure, it’s going to take a little longer than anyone had a right to expect. It already has. But by sometime next week, the Heat will be in their familiar spot on the sands of South Beach awaiting their next opponent. And their next parade.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 6:00 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 10

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished fifth at Talladega in the rain-delayed Aaron's 499 at Talladega. His lead in the Sprint Cup point standings is now 41 over Carl Edwards.

"What an ending!" Johnson said. "It reminded me a lot of former NASCAR driver Kimi Raikkonen's NASCAR skills — it was a 'wild Finnish.'"

2. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished third in the Aaron's 499 at Talladega, losing the lead on the final lap as David Ragan grabbed an unlikely win. Edwards is second in the point standings, 41 out of first.

"Ragan came out of nowhere," Edwards said. "And that's probably where he'll return.

"As one of NASCAR's manliest of men, I'd like to comment on the NBA's Jason Collins announcing that he's gay. I think NASCAR is ready for a homosexual driver. She better be really hot, though."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt slipped through the chaos of a wreck six laps from the finish to salvage 17th at Talladega. He moved up two places to third in the point standings to third, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 46.

"I was just happy to see the finish line," Earnhardt said. "It was a war of attrition. That's not to be confused with the "War of Attrition," which, according to many of my fans, was won by the South."

4. Kasey Kahne — Kahne was taken out at Talladega when Kyle Busch sent him spinning on lap 44, triggering the 'Big One' that eliminated 13 cars from contention. Kahne finished 42nd and fell one place in the point standings to fourth, 46 out of first.

"Busch used to drive the No. 5 car," Kahne said. "And, as of lap 44 at Talladega, so did I."

5. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer suffered significant damage in a big crash six laps from the end at Talladega, but managed to wheel the No. 15 Toyota to an 18-place finish. He is fourth in the point standings, 67 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Brad Keselowski wasn't too happy with the way the cars lined up on the final restart," Bowyer said. "So he took to Twitter to whine. I hear he changed his Twitter handle to "sshole." Sunday's result must have left a sour taste in his mouth. That gives him the 'tart' of a champion?"

6. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished fifth in the rain-interrupted Aaron's 499 at Talladega, posting his fourth top 5 of the year. The defending Sprint Cup champion is fifth in the point standings, 69 out of first.

"For a while," Keselowski said, "it appeared the race would be much like our rear housing at Texas — 'shortened.'

"NASCAR denied our appeal for penalties incurred for illegal parts at Texas. And they surely didn't Tweet their response. Oh no. It came on paper, and it was called a 'cheat sheet.'"

7. Kyle Busch — Busch triggered a huge lap 44 wreck in the Aaron's 499 when he tried to move around the No. 5 Chevy of Kasey Kahne. The pileup wiped out 13 cars, including Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, and Tony Stewart. Busch eventually finished 37th and is now ninth in the point standings, 98 out of first.

"Kurt may be the older brother," Busch said, "but now, several drivers are calling me the 'Big One."

8. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led 142 of 192 laps on the day, and led at the green-white-checkered finish, but finished eighth after the Front Row Motorsports duo of David Ragan and David Gilliland zoomed to the front.

"I've been a lame duck," Kenseth said, "and I've been intimidated by the Aflac duck. On Sunday, I was a sitting duck there at the end.

"Former Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron drove the pace car for Sunday's race. There was talk that his girlfriend, Katherine Webb, would drive the pace car. That fell through, because David Gilliland refuses to follow a woman."

9. Aric Almirola — Almirola finished 10th at Talladega in the No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports Ford. He is now seventh in the Sprint Cup standings, 90 out of first.

"You just never know what's going to happen at Talladega," Almirola said. "There were a lot of 'unknowns,' like the parts used by Penske and Joe Gibbs."

10. David Ragan — Ragan, pushed by Front Row Motorsports teammate David Gilliland, won the Aaron's 499 in improbable fashion, outgunning Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, and Matt Kenseth in an exciting green-white-checkered finish.

"Just call Gilliand and I the 'Aero-Dynamic Duo,'" Ragan said. "I haven't got that big of a 'push' since Jack Roush showed me the door.

"FRM is a small-time operation with nothing near the budget of the large teams. Not only did we accomplish the Talladega sweep with inferior equipment, we did it with legal equipment."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:22 PM | Comments (0)

May 7, 2013

NFL Drafts in Hindsight

This year's NFL draft has already been analyzed to death. And why not? The NFL is the most popular sports league in North America, and there's not much else going on right now.

But rather than continuing to guess about players who have never taken the field as pros, let's look back at those who have, examining the best and worst from recent NFL draft classes.

2000

First Three Picks — Cleveland Browns — Courtney Brown (DE, Penn State); Washington Redskins — LaVar Arrington (OLB, Penn State); Washington Redskins — Chris Samuels (OT, Alabama)

Still reaping the benefits of the Ricky Williams trade the year before, Washington traded up to get two of the first three draft spots. Coming off a division title and adding two elite prospects to their bold moves in free agency, Washington was forecast as a Super Bowl contender. Daniel Snyder fired head coach Norv Turner while the team had a winning record and was still in playoff contention; Washington missed the postseason.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Mike Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos

Anderson was caught in a weird RB situation in Denver, but as a 27-year-old rookie, he rushed for 1,487 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging just over 5 yards a carry. Among drafted players, Jamal Lewis probably had the best rookie season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Brian Urlacher, MLB, Chicago Bears

Urlacher was overrated early in his career, but he probably did deserve his DROY selection. It was in '01 and '02 that opponents really began to take advantage of his difficulty shedding blockers.

Best Offensive Player — Tom Brady (QB, Michigan), 199th overall

One of the most famous draft snubs in history. Running backs Shaun Alexander, Jamal Lewis, and Thomas Jones were all first-round draft choices this year.

Best Defensive Player — Brian Urlacher (MLB, New Mexico), 9th overall

John Abraham and Keith Bulluck were also in this draft class, both as first-rounders.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Tom Brady (QB, Michigan), 199th overall

Obviously.

Worst Draft Pick — Jacksonville Jaguars — R. Jay Soward (WR, USC), 29th overall

Soward only lasted one season in the NFL. He caught 14 passes for 108 yards, with no TDs.

Imagine if... the Browns drafted Urlacher.

Tom Brady wasn't on anyone's first-round radar, and Cleveland had just drafted Tim Couch the year before, so it wasn't looking for a quarterback. But what if the Browns had drafted Brian Urlacher or John Abraham? The team made an improbable playoff run in 2002, and with a true defensive standout rather than Courtney Brown, might have sustained that success.

2001

First Three Picks — Atlanta Falcons — Michael Vick (QB, Virginia Tech); Arizona Cardinals — Leonard Davis (OL, Texas); Cleveland Browns — Gerard Warren (DT, Florida)

Having been burned by Ryan Leaf three years earlier, the San Diego Chargers wanted no part of Vick with the top slot in the draft. They traded the choice to Atlanta and selected LaDainian Tomlinson from TCU with the 5th pick.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Anthony Thomas, RB, Chicago Bears

Thomas and Tomlinson looked roughly equal as rookies, but if the voters could go back and choose this one again, I suspect they might go in a different direction.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Kendrell Bell, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell had a legitimately impressive rookie season, with 70 solo tackles and 9 sacks, as Pittsburgh advanced to the AFC Championship Game. He struggled with injuries and never repeated that level of productivity.

Best Offensive Player — LaDainian Tomlinson (RB, TCU), 5th overall

Drew Brees is still playing at a high level, and it's possible (though not likely) that he could eventually overtake LT. Wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith were also drafted in '01. Smith, valued largely as a returner on special teams, lasted until the 3rd round.

Best Defensive Player — Richard Seymour (DL, Georgia), 6th overall

Seymour immediately played a critical role in helping the Patriots win Super Bowl XXXVI, and later two more titles. Fellow defensive linemen Justin Smith and Casey Hampton, along with safety Adrian Wilson, were the other standouts from this defensive class.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Drew Brees (QB, Purdue), 32nd overall

Brees had his best years with the Saints, not the Chargers, but a Hall of Fame quarterback still counts as the best pick after the first round. Alternatively, 10-year starter Ryan Diem was a 4th-round draft pick this season.

Worst Draft Pick — Green Bay Packers — Jamal Reynolds (DE, Florida State), 10th overall

Reynolds played for three seasons and never started a game. He retired with 3 career sacks.

Imagine if... the Chargers kept the top pick.

This could dramatically re-shape the last decade in the NFL. I don't know what the dog-fighting community in San Diego is like, but it's at least plausible that Vick's career might have gone much differently if he went to the Chargers. Barring a trade up to get him, Tomlinson probably would have slipped to the Bears, who'd choose him instead of Thomas. And since the Chargers got their QB at the top of the draft, it's not out of the question that the Chicago Bears might have drafted both Tomlinson and Brees.

2002

First Three Picks — Houston Texans — David Carr (QB, Fresno State); Carolina Panthers — Julius Peppers (DE, North Carolina); Detroit Lions — Joey Harrington (QB, Oregon)

I don't think it's a good idea for expansion teams to draft quarterbacks. With no offensive line and an awful defense that usually had him playing from behind, Carr was doomed to failure. The Texans could have been successful much sooner if they had drafted Peppers and taken one of the '04 QBs (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger) when there were more pieces in place.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Clinton Portis, RB, Denver Broncos

Portis rushed for 1,500 yards, with a 5.5 average and 17 total TDs. Jeremy Shockey also had a good season, but he was annoying.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Julius Peppers, DE, Carolina Panthers

Dwight Freeney actually had more sacks (13.0) than Peppers (12.0), but Peppers did that despite missing four games. Dallas safety Roy Williams began his career with a bang, including 2 sacks, 8 takeaways, and 2 touchdowns on INT returns. John Henderson managed 6.5 sacks at a position that doesn't usually lend itself to stats.

Best Offensive Player — Clinton Portis (RB, Miami), 51st overall

Portis rushed for at least 1,200 yards six times, and at least 1,500 in three of those years. The Broncos traded him after two years, getting Champ Bailey and a second-round pick in return.

Best Defensive Player — Ed Reed (DB, Miami), 24th overall

Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney will probably be Hall of Famers one day, but Ed Reed may be the greatest defensive back in the history of football.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Brett Keisel (DL, BYU), 242nd overall

Portis was probably a little better player, but purely on value, 7th-rounder Keisel is king. He's spent the past decade as an anchor on the best defensive line in the NFL.

Worst Draft Pick — Arizona Cardinals — Wendell Bryant (DT, Wisconsin), 12th overall

Even before he was suspended for a third violation (in three years!) of the NFL's substance abuse policy, Bryant looked like a major bust. He started only 9 games in the NFL.

Imagine if... the Texans drafted Peppers instead of Carr.

See above.

2003

First Three Picks — Cincinnati Bengals — Carson Palmer (QB, USC); Detroit Lions — Charles Rogers (WR, Michigan State); Houston Texans — Andre Johnson (WR, Miami)

This was Detroit's second consecutive season with a top-three pick, but as bad as the Lions were in the Matt Millen era, they never drafted first overall. Millen was gone by the time Detroit drafted Matthew Stafford in 2009.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona Cardinals

In his very first game, Boldin broke Hugh Taylor's rookie record for single-game receiving yards, catching 10 passes for 217 yards and 2 TDs. He finished the year with 101 receptions for 1,377 yards and 8 TDs.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Terrell Suggs, DE/OLB, Baltimore Ravens

Used mostly as a situational pass rusher, Suggs recorded 12 sacks and an interception in 2003. Terence Newman (4 INT, 17 PD) and Kevin Williams (10.5 sacks) also had very strong rookie seasons.

Best Offensive Player — Jason Witten (TE, Tennessee), 69th overall

This is a really close call over Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin. Johnson has been a monster when healthy, and Boldin's numbers would be much bigger if he'd played on more explosive offenses. But Witten's outstanding receiving and good blocking make him one of the 10 best tight ends in history.

I'm not evaluating undrafted players, but I'd probably have Witten ahead of fellow tight end Antonio Gates, as well. Gates was unstoppable from 2004-10. But he missed the second half of 2010 with an injury, and hasn't looked nearly the same since he returned, while Witten is coming off one of his best seasons, including a career-high 110 receptions. They're both 8-time Pro Bowlers, but Witten is quickly pulling ahead.

Best Defensive Player — Troy Polamalu (DB, USC), 16th overall

This is one of the most loaded defensive classes in the history of the draft. Just looking at defensive backs, you've got Terence Newman, Marcus Trufant, Polamalu, Nnamdi Asomugha, Charles Tillman, Rashean Mathis, Terrence McGee, Asante Samuel, and Ike Taylor. The 2003 draft class also included Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, and Lance Briggs, not to mention Osi Umenyiora and Robert Mathis.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Jason Witten (TE, Tennessee), 69th overall

Lance Briggs (68th) and Robert Mathis (138th) are in the running here, as well.

Worst Draft Pick — Detroit Lions — Charles Rogers (WR, Michigan State), 2nd overall

Rogers, taken one pick before Andre Johnson and 52 before Anquan Boldin, caught 36 passes for 440 yards in his NFL career. Both Johnson and Boldin topped that as rookies. Both now have over 10,000 receiving yards, and both are still playing at a high level.

Imagine if... Detroit chose Andre Johnson over Charles Rogers.

Matt Millen might still be their GM.

2004

First Three Picks — San Diego Chargers — Eli Manning (QB, Ole Miss); Oakland Raiders — Robert Gallery (OT, Iowa); Arizona Cardinals — Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Pitt)

Manning's daddy announced before the draft that he would not play for the Chargers. They drafted him anyway, but traded Eli to the Giants in exchange for Philip Rivers and the choices used on Shawne Merriman (in '05) and Nate Kaeding.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

The first QB to win OROY honors in 30 years, Big Ben was an easy choice after he helped the Steelers to a 15-1 record and broke Dan Marino's rookie record for passer rating (98.1).

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Jonathan Vilma, ILB, New York Jets

In a year with no other obvious standouts, Vilma made 77 solo tackles, with 2 sacks, 3 INTs, and a touchdown.

Best Offensive Player — Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Pitt), 3rd overall

All three first-round QBs (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger) have done good things, and Steven Jackson has put together a very nice career in St. Louis. But Fitzgerald has most consistently distinguished himself from his peers.

Best Defensive Player — Jared Allen (DE, Idaho State), 126th overall

Allen is easily the strongest defensive player from the '04 draft class, but Vince Wilfork and Darnell Dockett also came into the league through this draft. Sean Taylor was the 5th overall pick, an explosive player whose career ended with his death from gun violence.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Jared Allen (DE, Idaho State), 126th overall

Allen played four seasons for Kansas City, including two with double-digit sacks, before the team traded him to Minnesota for a pair of first-round picks.

Worst Draft Pick — San Francisco 49ers — Rashaun Woods (WR, Oklahoma State), 31st overall

Woods played only one season and never made a start. He caught 7 passes for 160 yards and 1 touchdown.

Imagine if... you scrambled the QBs.

Manning to the Steelers, Ben to San Diego, Rivers to the Giants. How many Super Bowls has each team won?

2005

First Three Picks — San Francisco 49ers — Alex Smith (QB, Utah); Miami Dolphins — Ronnie Brown (RB, Auburn); Cleveland Browns — Braylon Edwards (WR, Michigan)

The Dolphins were one of three teams to draft a running back in the top five, with the Bears choosing Cedric Benson and the Buccaneers drafting Brown's teammate, Carnell "Cadillac" Williams.

Braylon Edwards was the third straight receiver chosen 3rd overall.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When I named my 2005 All-Pro team, I sold out and went with Cadillac over Patriots lineman Logan Mankins. I wish I could have that one back.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Shawne Merriman, OLB, San Diego Chargers

Probably the best class of rookie linebackers in the history of the draft. Merriman was a runaway choice as DROY, but in most years, Lofa Tatupu (Pro Bowl), DeMarcus Ware (8 sacks), and Odell Thurman (98 tackles, 5 INT) would have been contenders. Derrick Johnson and LeRoy Hill had nice years at outside linebacker.

Best Offensive Player — Aaron Rodgers (QB, California), 24th overall

Rodgers sat on the bench behind Brett Favre for three years, but he's become such an exceptional player that he's the right choice. Roddy White, Logan Mankins, and Frank Gore were also rookies in '05.

Best Defensive Player — DeMarcus Ware (OLB, Troy), 11th overall

Ware could retire today and he'd be a Hall of Famer. He's had double-digit sacks for seven seasons in a row, including two years leading the league.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Jay Ratliff (DT, Auburn), 224th overall

Straight up, I'd probably go with Frank Gore. But Gore was a third-round pick. Ratliff was a seventh-rounder, and for a year or two, he might have been the best interior lineman in the NFL.

Worst Draft Pick — Minnesota Vikings — Troy Williamson (WR, South Carolina), 7th overall

The combination of Williamson (7th) and Erasmus James (18th) has got to rank among the most disappointing first rounds in the history of the draft. Williamson stuck in the league for five seasons, as a returner and backup receiver, but James played only 12 games for the Vikings and ended his career with just 5 sacks.

Maurice Clarett (101st overall) earns a dishonorable mention. He was cut in training camp and never played a down in the NFL.

Imagine if... Daniel Snyder were smart.

In the week leading up to the draft, Washington traded first-, third-, and fourth-round choices to the Broncos so it could move up and take quarterback Jason Campbell 25th. Aaron Rodgers unexpectedly fell in the draft, and Green Bay selected him 24th. If Snyder had waited until draft day, he could have traded up to get Rodgers instead of Campbell. Joe Gibbs and Santana Moss still have nightmares about this.

2006

First Three Picks — Houston Texans — Mario Williams (DE, NC State); New Orleans Saints — Reggie Bush (RB, USC); Tennessee Titans — Vince Young (QB, Texas)

Leading into the draft, it was a foregone conclusion that Houston would either select Bush (supposedly the second coming of Gale Sayers), or reach for a local hero and take Vince Young. All three players had their moments, but none are still with the teams that drafted them.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans

Let the record show that I chose Maurice Jones-Drew, who led all rookies in TDs (16) while contributing as a rusher (941 yds, 5.7 avg), receiver (436 yds), and kickoff returner (860 yds, 27.7 avg). Young went 8-5 as a starter, but he had a 66.7 passer rating. Marques Colston was the prohibitive favorite halfway through the season, but injuries cost him time and contributed to a slow finish.

Devin Hester made the All-Pro team as a returner.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — DeMeco Ryans, MLB, Houston Texans

Ryans led the NFL in tackles and won DROY easily, but fellow rookies Mark Anderson and Kamerion Wimbley each got double-digit sacks, and Ravens rookies Dawan Landry and Haloti Ngata started for one of the greatest defensives in modern history.

Best Offensive Player — Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, UCLA), 60th overall

Jones-Drew is one of the most outstanding running backs of this generation. Until last year, his career was comparable to (and probably a little bit better than) Adrian Peterson's. But he's not an obvious choice here. I'd entertain arguments for a pair of linemen (Nick Mangold and Jahri Evans) and a trio of wideouts (Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, and Marques Colston). If you count his returning as offense, Devin Hester could be a factor here, as well.

Best Defensive Player — Haloti Ngata (DL, Oregon), 12th overall

I might regret this in a couple years. Ngata has had some very good years, but he's been overrated for a while, and he did not play well last season. If I were writing this in 2015, I might drop Ngata and go with Chad Greenway (drafted 17th), Johnathan Joseph (24th), or Cortland Finnegan (215th). Antonio Cromartie, Tamba Hali, and Elvis Dumervil are in the conversation as well. Mario Williams can't seem to stay healthy, but his best seasons are just as good as Ngata's.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Cortland Finnegan (DB, Samford), 215th overall

MJD and Hester were second-round picks, and Brandon Marshall and Jahri Evans both went in the fourth round, but for sheer value it's got to be either Finnegan or Marques Colston (252nd out of Hofstra).

Worst Draft Pick — St. Louis Rams — Tye Hill (DB, Clemson), 15th overall

Matt Leinart (10th overall to Arizona) was also a pretty disastrous pick, but he got stuck on the depth chart behind a likely Hall of Famer (Kurt Warner) and his opportunities since then have been limited by injuries. Leinart's still in the league, while Hill has been gone for a couple of years now.

Imagine if... the Texans drafted Vince Young.

They wouldn't have traded for Matt Schaub, and he might have still been with the Falcons when Michael Vick got suspended. With Schaub in place, the Falcons never choose Matt Ryan...

2007

First Three Picks — Oakland Raiders — JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU); Detroit Lions — Calvin Johnson (WR, Georgia Tech); Cleveland Browns — Joe Thomas (OT, Wisconsin)

Going back to 1999, when the Browns returned to Cleveland, they "earned" a top-three draft pick in five of their first nine seasons: Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, Braylon Edwards, and Thomas. None were unqualified failures, but only Thomas was really any kind of success.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

He broke the single-game rushing record (296 yds) — the big record, not just the rookie mark — and rushed for 1,341 yards, with a 5.6 average. Joe Thomas also had a very strong rookie season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Patrick Willis, MLB, San Francisco 49ers

Willis led the league with 135 solo tackles. Fellow linebacker Jon Beason also played very well as a rookie.

Best Offensive Player — Calvin Johnson (WR, Georgia Tech), 2nd overall

This is a razor-close call between two players who have already established themselves among the best ever at their respective positions. I give Johnson the slightest edge over Adrian Peterson.

Best Defensive Player — Darrelle Revis (DB, Pitt), 14th overall

Another close call. I've always thought Patrick Willis was a little overrated.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Eric Weddle (DB, Utah), 37th overall

These players are all mid-career, so the choices are in flux, but I like Weddle a little better than Dashon Goldson (126th) and Ahmad Bradshaw (250th).

Worst Draft Pick — Oakland Raiders — JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU), 1st overall

People still talk about Ryan Leaf, but I don't think there's ever been a worse draft choice than Russell, including the Buccaneers' selection of Bo Jackson in 1985. Russell held out, scored a record contract, and then stunk up the field about as badly as possible.

Imagine if... the Raiders drafted Calvin Johnson instead of Russell.

Why select the best receiver in a generation when you can reach for a quarterback?

2008

First Three Picks — Miami Dolphins — Jake Long (OT, Michigan); St. Louis Rams — Chris Long (DE, Virginia); Atlanta Falcons — Matt Ryan (QB, Boston College)

On draft day, I thought the top four GMs were crazy for not choosing Glenn Dorsey (DT, LSU). Oops.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Along with new head coach Mike Smith and free agent RB Michael Turner, Ryan turned the Falcons from a 4-12 disaster into a playoff team. A number of other rookies had big years, most notably 1,000-yard rushers Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Jerod Mayo, LB, New England Patriots

In a bit of a down year for rookie defenders, Mayo was the only contender, winning 49 of 50 DROY votes. Cincinnati's Keith Rivers got the other.

Best Offensive Player — Chris Johnson (RB, East Carolina), 24th overall

Please append a "so far" to all of the entries from here on. Johnson earned the scorn of Titans fans (and fantasy football owners) for his slow starts the past two years, but he's rushed for over 1,000 yards every season and averaged over 4.7 yards per carry, including one of the finest seasons ever by a running back. Ray Rice has 1,000 more receiving yards than Johnson, but CJ has a 1,300-yard edge in rushing, with a better average and more touchdowns.

Offensive tackles Jake Long and Ryan Clady are in this conversation, too, as is guard Carl Nicks. Matt Ryan will probably be the best of all eventually, but that's projecting. I'll stick with Johnson for now.

Best Defensive Player — Jerod Mayo (LB, Tennessee), 10th overall

Playing inside or outside, Mayo is among the best linebackers in the league when healthy. There are any number of defenders who might eventually be considered the best from this draft class, but for now the closest to catching Mayo are a pair of linemen, Calais Campbell and Chris Long.

Best Non-First Round Pick — Carl Nicks (OL, Nebraska), 164th overall

This is a value pick. Straight up, you'd probably go with Ray Rice (55th).

Worst Draft Pick — New York Jets — Vernon Gholston (DL, Ohio State), 6th overall

Yeah, you knew this was coming. He started five games and was out of the league after three years.

Imagine if... we could re-draft RBs.

Five running backs were chosen in the first round of the '08 draft: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, and Chris Johnson. In the second and third rounds: Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, and Steve Slaton.

If you let those teams choose again, the Raiders would probably take Rice (or Johnson, if Al Davis were running the draft). The Panthers would choose the other, then waste him in a time share with three other RBs. The Cowboys would presumably want Forte or Charles. Let's give them Forte. That leaves Pittsburgh with an easy choice, Jamaal Charles.

All the really appealing choices are gone at this point, but the Texans don't care, because the next year they signed Arian Foster as an undrafted free agent.

2009

Let's begin with a disclaimer that this draft was not a very long time ago, and these players are early in their careers. We're just messing around at this point.

First Three Picks — Detroit Lions — Matthew Stafford (QB, Georgia); St. Louis Rams — Jason Smith (OT, Baylor); Kansas City Chiefs — Tyson Jackson (DL, LSU)

How far down do you have to go in this draft to find an obvious success? Aaron Curry, Mark Sanchez, Andre Smith, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Eugene Monroe, B.J. Raji. I guess you could argue for Stafford or Raji. But to find a player of whom everyone would say, "Yes! He is worth a top-10 draft pick," I think you'd have to go to Clay Matthews with the 26th pick. So far at least, this was not a strong first round.

Offensive Rookie of the Year — Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings

This was a sad year for offensive rookies. Someone had to win.

Defensive Rookie of the Year — Brian Cushing, LB, Houston Texans

As a rookie, Cushing recorded 5 sacks, 4 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, double-digit pass deflections, and a safety, while leading his team in tackles. If he stays healthy and on the field, Cushing is a Hall of Fame-caliber player. He's a rare talent.

This was also a strong year for other rookie defenders. Jairus Byrd tied for the league lead with 9 interceptions, while Brian Orakpo and Clay Matthews both had double-digit sacks.

Best Offensive Player — N/A

How can you choose a standout? There are quarterbacks who could be good (Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman), but they've both been down as often as up. LeSean McCoy has had two good seasons and two partial seasons. Percy Harvin and Mike Wallace have had their moments, but Harvin can't stay healthy and Wallace hasn't really developed. Both their teams let them leave this offseason. Michael Crabtree and Hakeem Nicks could be great one day, but they aren't there yet. Max Unger, Andy Levitre, Michael Oher, Phil Loadholt, Sebastian Vollmer ... there are plenty of good offensive linemen, but the group is still developing.

Is it cheating not to name anyone? Fine, McCoy. The Eagles chose him 53rd overall out of Pitt. But RBs have short careers, and he's coming off an injury. When future generations evaluate this class, I suspect they'll go with Stafford or one of the linemen.

Best Defensive Player — Clay Matthews III (OLB, USC), 26th overall

If Brian Cushing hadn't missed about a year because of injury and suspension, this might be close. Right now, though, it's clearly Matthews. Brian Orakpo, James Laurinaitis, and Jairus Byrd aren't on the same level, but all have shown some good things.

Best Non-First Round Pick — LeSean McCoy (RB, Pitt), 53rd overall

Jairus Byrd (42nd) is close, and if you project a year or two, Henry Melton (105) and Glover Quin (112) could be in this conversation, as could the offensive linemen. Unger (49) and Levitre (51) both had very good seasons in 2012.

I'm looking at the draft itself, so undrafted free agents don't count. Arian Foster has obviously been even better than McCoy, but he's not technically part of this draft class.

Worst Draft Pick — St. Louis Rams — Jason Smith (OT, Baylor), 2nd overall

The Rams let him go after just three years and 26 starts. He was a backup and special teamer for the Jets in 2012.

Imagine if... Mark Sanchez went to the Jaguars with the 8th pick.

Trade New York for Jacksonville. Swap Tim Tebow for David Garrard. Shonn Greene for MJD. Cold weather for warm, stress for sunshine, media scrutiny for the league's smallest market. Would Sanchez be a happier person and a different player? Probably not, but aren't you curious?

* * *

Let's cut things off there. Trying to make accurate "hindsight" judgments about players who haven't even reached their primes yet strikes me as a waste of time, even more than the rest of this exercise. To conclude, I'll just list the leaders each year:

Best Offensive Player

2000: Tom Brady (QB, Michigan), 199th overall
2001: LaDainian Tomlinson (RB, TCU), 5th overall
2002: Clinton Portis (RB, Miami), 51st overall
2003: Jason Witten (TE, Tennessee), 69th overall
2004: Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Pitt), 3rd overall
2005: Aaron Rodgers (QB, California), 24th overall
2006: Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, UCLA), 60th overall
2007: Calvin Johnson (WR, Georgia Tech), 2nd overall
2008: Chris Johnson (RB, East Carolina), 24th overall*
2009: LeSean McCoy (RB, Pitt), 53rd overall*

* will probably change within a year or two

This list includes five first-round picks, three second-round picks, a third-rounder, and Tom Brady. I picked five running backs and no offensive linemen, though I don't believe that reflects a personal bias. Running backs have the shortest careers of any position and tend to peak early, so it makes sense that players like MJD, CJ2K, and McCoy would take early leads they'll give up a few years down the line.

Best Defensive Player

2000: Brian Urlacher (MLB, New Mexico), 9th overall
2001: Richard Seymour (DL, Georgia), 6th overall
2002: Ed Reed (DB, Miami), 24th overall
2003: Troy Polamalu (DB, USC), 16th overall
2004: Jared Allen (DE, Idaho State), 126th overall
2005: DeMarcus Ware (OLB, Troy), 11th overall
2006: Haloti Ngata (DL, Oregon), 12th overall
2007: Darrelle Revis (DB, Pitt), 14th overall
2008: Jerod Mayo (LB, Tennessee), 10th overall
2009: Clay Matthews III (OLB, USC), 26th overall

This list includes 9 first-round picks and Jared Allen. For all that we talk about what a crapshoot the draft is, the early picks are the guys who pull away. The Ravens and Patriots drafted four of the 10 players above.

Best Non-First Round Pick

2000: Tom Brady (QB, Michigan), 199th overall
2001: Drew Brees (QB, Purdue), 32nd overall
2002: Brett Keisel (DL, BYU), 242nd overall
2003: Jason Witten (TE, Tennessee), 69th overall
2004: Jared Allen (DE, Idaho State), 126th overall
2005: Jay Ratliff (DT, Auburn), 224th overall
2006: Cortland Finnegan (DB, Samford), 215th overall
2007: Eric Weddle (DB, Utah), 37th overall
2008: Carl Nicks (OL, Nebraska), 164th overall
2009: LeSean McCoy (RB, Pitt), 53rd overall

Undrafted free agents were ineligible for this list.

Worst Draft Pick

2000: Jacksonville Jaguars — R. Jay Soward (WR, USC), 29th
2001: Green Bay Packers — Jamal Reynolds (DE, FSU), 10th
2002: Arizona Cardinals — Wendell Bryant (DT, Wisconsin), 12th
2003: Detroit Lions — Charles Rogers (WR, MSU), 2nd
2004: San Francisco 49ers — Rashaun Woods (WR, Oklahoma State), 31st overall
2005: Minnesota Vikings — Troy Williamson (WR, S.Carolina), 7th
2006: St. Louis Rams — Tye Hill (DB, Clemson), 15th
2007: Oakland Raiders — JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU), 1st
2008: New York Jets — Vernon Gholston (DL, Ohio State), 6th
2009: St. Louis Rams — Jason Smith (OT, Baylor), 2nd

Two of these players were chosen 2nd overall. Watch out, Luke Joeckel.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:04 PM | Comments (0)

May 6, 2013

The Best Moves of the NFL Offseason

Well, that's about it. The game of musical chairs that is the National Football League offseason is pretty much done. We've had trades. We've had cuts and pick-ups and major signings and minor signings. We've had the draft and now we've had the post-draft rush for undrafted free agents. And with the exception of a few late moves like somebody picking up John Abraham, Brian Urlacher or (gasp!) Tim Tebow (double gasp!!), teams can look at their depth charts and know the majority of guys who will break camps with a job are on that board.

Let's take a look around the league and pick out the top impact additions for NFL teams this fall.

QB Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals — The Cardinals have been in a quarterback tailspin since Kurt Warner retired. If you recall, Warner was supposed to just come in as a veteran backup after he washed out as Eli Manning's veteran backup in New York. Then Matt Leinart was terrible, Warner took over and next think you know Bill Bidwell is sitting in the owner's suite at the Super Bowl.

Now, nobody is or should be saying Palmer has a Warner-type run in him, but the profile is similar — veteran QB who knows he's on the last chapter of his career, playing for a new coach, with Larry Fitzgerald running routes for him. And just like Warner a few years ago, Palmer has tasted success. He's won divisions and played in the playoffs. And his coach, Bruce Arians, likes nothing more than to air the ball with abandon. It could be a catastrophe (especially if their tackles don't play any better), but it could also be something special.

QB Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs — The 49ers better hope that Colin Kaepernick isn't a one-year wonder, because Smith was 19-5-1 with 30 TD and 10 INT in his last two years as a starting quarterback in San Francisco. He instantly give Andy Reid's new offense credibility, especially when paired with a solid-if-unspectacular offensive line blocking for Jamaal Charles (now two years removed from his ACL tear). When you see the Chiefs in second place behind the Broncos in the AFC West next season, the trade for Smith is going to be the reason why.

RB Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams — Like Palmer, Jackson knows the clock is ticking toward the end of his career. But perhaps no back is in a better position to take advantage of his last chance as is Jackson. In St. Louis, it was an eight- or nine-man box on every play because the offense had no pass game to keep defenses honest. If people try that with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez running wild for Matt Ryan, the Falcons offense is going to put up Tecmo Bowl stats. Jackson may only have two years left in the tank, but they could be an extremely productive two years.

RBs Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin, Green Bay Packers — One of these two guys struck it rich, but which one? Don't assume that just because Lacy was selected in the second round and Franklin in the fourth that Lacy will be the guy taking the majority of the snaps behind Aaron Rodgers. Remember back a few years (2008 to be exact), the Packers took a pair of quarterbacks: Brian Brohm in the second and Matt Flynn in the seventh. It was Flynn who ended up taking the back-up job while Brohm was cut less than 18 months after the draft and now plays for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats of the Canadian Football League. Here's betting that Franklin pulls ahead of Lacy during training camp and ends up leading the Packers in rushing next year.

WR Davone Bess, Cleveland Browns — I know Paul Kruger is the highlight of the Browns' roster revamp, but the addition of Bess as a security blanket to whoever ends up the starting QB (I'm still betting on Brandon Weeden) has the potential to be a real plus for this offense under Norv Turner. Put it this way — I know a lot of Dolphins fans, and not a single one of them was glad to see Bess head out of town.

WR Wes Welker, Denver Broncos — Point 1: The expectations for Welker in Denver are out of hand. In New England, he was option A and B, and sometimes C and D. In Denver, he's walking into an offense that features stud outside receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Combined last year, those two accounted for 179 catches on 264 targets. Brandon Stokley, the man Welker is replacing, caught 45 balls on 58 targets. Now is Welker a major upgrade over Stokley? Of course. But he's not going to come anywhere close to matching his production with New England. Point 2: While Welker is going to lose fantasy football value, his real football value to Manning is unquantifiable. Having Welker in the middle of Decker and Thomas is going to make that offense damn near unstoppable, and the Broncos are a clear favorite to win the Super Bowl as a result.

WRs Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce, New England Patriots — While Manning gets Welker, has any Hall of Fame quarterback ever gone through a total line shift in receivers without switching teams like Tom Brady will be this season? Brady threw for more than 4,800 yards last season, fourth most in the league, and it'll be up to Amendola, Dobson, and Boyce to come in and replace the production of Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. And with both starting tight ends potentially on the shelf, the receivers' ability to quickly acclimate to a complex new system will that much more important.

WR Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings — Jennings isn't worth the cash the Vikings gave him, and fellow receiver Corderrelle Patterson wasn't worth the draft haul Minnesota gave up to get him, but really what choice did they have? Their pass game was pathetic last year (only the Chiefs threw for fewer yards), and that was before their one real receiving threat, Percy Harvin, was traded to Seattle. When you have an iconic running back like Adrian Peterson, you have to be able to take advantage of safeties cheating up to help the front. If the Vikings offense can't pass the ball next year, it won't be Christian Ponder throwing the passes in 2014.

TE Brandon Myers, New York Giants — If there's an award for least publicized signing that will have the biggest impact on fantasy teams next year, Myers is it. Playing in an overmatched offense last year in Oakland, Myers still caught 79 passes for more than 800 yards and 4 touchdowns. Now with a real offense, a good-to-great QB, quality receivers around him and a decent run game to occupy opposing linebackers and safeties, Myers could equal that catch total and double the TD total. And if you don't think he's ending up on Matthew Berry's "Love" list for this season, you're crazy.

Gs Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack, TE Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans — If only because I'm sick of hearing Chris Johnson bitch about his offensive line. Listen dude, if you don't produce this year, it's not them, it's you. Shush up and run.

CB Darrelle Revis and S Dashon Goldson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Playing in a division with the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers, it was imperative the Bucs shore up their secondary if they were going to stand a chance. Done and done. Not only did they get Revis at corner, they also drafted Johnathan Banks in the second round out of Mississippi State. And by adding Goldson to 2012 first-round pick Mark Barron, they can both cover the deep middle and come up in run support. This is now a defense that can step on the field and look at Drew Brees (Weeks 2 and 17), Tom Brady (Week 3), Matt Ryan (Weeks 7 and 11), and Matthew Stafford (Week 12) and say "We got this." That's not something many teams can do.

S Matt Elam and ILB Arthur Brown, Baltimore Ravens — Out go Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, in come Elam and Brown. Now technically, Elam is replacing Bernard Pollard and Brown is moving into Jameel McClain's position as McClain replaces Lewis, but you get the point. Whether Elam and Brown can hold up under pressure week after week will determine just how close Baltimore gets to being the first back-to-back Champs since the Patriots in 2003-2004. Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome is getting a ton of credit for rebuilding the champs, but let's see how the two defensive rookies hold up once Manning starts with the arm-waving and audible-calling in Week 1.

LB AJ Klein, Carolina Panthers — I haven't seen this pick get any ink in the "draft picks most likely to contribute" columns, but the Panthers struck gold adding Klein in the fifth round next to 2012 first-round pick Luke Kuechly. With only the brittle Thomas Davis and Jon Beason ahead of him on either side of Kuechly, the chances of Klein being a starter by mid-season are better than 50-50. And with fellow rookies Star Lotulelei (first round) and Kawann Short (second round) clogging up the middle, Klein are going to be all over the field. When the Panthers make the playoffs next year, Cam Newton will get the credit. But it will be the rookies on defense that will have made the biggest difference.

K Caleb Sturgis, Miami Dolphins — What? With Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller and Dannell Ellerbe and Brent Grimes and Dion Jordan, I go with a rookie fifth-round kicker? Yep, because kickers are people too and Dan Carpenter is one of the worst incumbent starters in the league. Sturgis is coming off a stellar career at Florida, taking All-American honors last season and All-SEC honors the past two years (including over Minnesota All Pro rookie Blair Walsh in 2011). If the Dolphins are going to contend for a playoff spot in 2013, they're going to have to win the close ones. And that's why with all of the money they spent, the rookie contract for Sturgis may pay the biggest dividends.

Everything San Francisco Did — Seriously, nobody had a better offseason than the 49ers. At receiver, they added Anquan Boldin (trade with Baltimore) and Quinton Patten (drafted in the fourth round). At tight end, they drafted Vance McDonald from Rice, which, along with starter Vernon Davis, gives them the best 1-2 TE combo west of Foxborough. At running back, they added Marcus Lattimore in the fourth round, my favorite single pick in the entire draft. On the defensive line, they added Glenn Dorsey, a former top-five pick miscast in Kansas City. At linebacker, they got Tank Carradine (second round out of Florida State) and Corey Lemonier (third round out of Auburn). And in the secondary, they drafted perhaps the best safety in the entire draft in Eric Reid (first round from LSU), and signed corner Nnamdi Asomugha. Hell, they even got Phil Dawson as their new kicker. I don't know how anybody picks anything other than a San Francisco-Denver Super Bowl this preseason.

Honorable Mentions — Veteran Edition: Osi Umenyiora (DE, Atlanta), Elvis Dumerville (OLB, Baltimore), Jermon Bushrod (OT, Chicago), Jason Jones (DE, Detroit), Ed Reed (S, Houston), Gosder Cherilus (OT, Indianapolis), Sean Smith (CB, Kansas City), all those Dolphins guys I mentioned, Tommy Kelly (DT, New England), Adrian Wilson (S, New England), Chris Ivory (RB, NY Jets), Matt Flynn (QB, Oakland), Arrelious Benn (WR, Philadelphia), Chad Rinehart (G, San Diego), Percy Harvin (WR, Seattle), Jake Long (OT, St. Louis)

Honorable Mentions — Rookie Edition: Sharrif Floyd (DT, Minnesota, 1st), DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Houston, 1st), Dee Milliner (CB, NY Jets, 1st), Desmond Trufant (CB, Atlanta, 1st), DJ Swearinger (CB, Houston, 2nd), Darius Slay (CB, Detroit, 2nd), Montee Ball (RB, Denver, 2nd), Margus Hunt (DE, Cincinnati, 2nd), Robert Woods (WR, Buffalo, 2nd), Markus Wheaton (WR, Pittsburgh, 3rd), Keenan Allen (WR, San Diego, 3rd), John Jenkins (DT, New Orleans, 3rd), Leon McFadden (CB, Cleveland, 3rd), Barrett Jones (C, St. Louis, 4th), Ace Sanders (WR, Jacksonville, 4th), BW Webb (CB, Dallas, 4th), Jesse Wiliams (DT, Seattle, 5th), Ryan Swope (WR, Arizona, 6th), Bacarri Rambo (S, Washington, 6th), Marquess Wilson (WR, Chicago, 7th), Jordan Poyer (CB, Philadelphia, 7th), TJ Moe (WR, New England, UDFA), Jasper Collins (WR, Miami, UDFA), Conner Vernon (WR, Oakland, UDFA), Keith Pough (LB, Buffalo Bills, UDFA)

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 12:12 PM | Comments (1)

May 2, 2013

Jason Collins: Why it Matters

Ever since Robbie Rogers came out as gay a few months back, and retired from soccer in the same announcement, there's been a charged feeling in the air that the first active openly gay athlete in a major North American team sport was coming very, very soon.

Well, that day has come, and the man of the hour is NBA veteran Jason Collins. I don't follow the NBA closely enough to be able to immediately recollect who he was — my mind went to Nick Collison — but if you're a bigger college than pro basketball fan like I am, then you probably remember him as part of the dominant duo he and his twin brother Jarron made at Stanford at the turn of the century.

Collins is a free agent, so it may be premature to refer to him as the first active openly gay NBA player, as it is possible that no team will pick him up.

It would be justifiable from a basketball perspective for any team to pass on him. Collins is 34, his minutes and the ability to stay healthy have dwindled, and has for the last several years established himself as a 3 ppg backup sent in to commit fouls.

That said, I really hope a team does pick him up. If not, an excruciating debate loaded with presumptions and unknowable assertions will rage ad nauseum on the Internet between those that believe homophobia spelled the end of his career, or declining basketball skills. Trying to be objective as possible, I think there's still a place in the NBA for a seven-footer that is limited, but not a complete stiff.

Reactions have been mostly positive and supportive (key word: mostly), with a number of dignitaries and NBA colleagues giving him a virtual pat on the back.

Likewise, man-on-the-street reactions (as long as you avoid the dark corners of the web, like the comment section on any Yahoo or ESPN article) have been mostly positive as well. The most prevalent reaction I've seen among those not feting Collins goes something like this:

"Why does it matter that he's gay? Who cares? Why are celebrating this decision to come out, like it's a big deal? It's not a big deal. No one cares who he has sex with. Stop making it a big deal."

This column is for those who feel that way.

I wish you were right. I wish it wasn't a big deal, and that, truly, no one cared. I wish it was viewed as bizarre and unnecessary to make such an announcement as it would be if Steve Nash called a press conference to announce he's growing a beard.

But you are confusing where we should be, and where I think we will be soon, with where we are at today.

Today, people care. And I'm not referring to the pro-gay contingent that revels in such news, which you seem to be annoyed by. I'm talking about the homophobes on the other side of the fence. Chris Culliver, for example, made it very clear he is very much against the idea of accepting a gay teammate. That wasn't in 1983 or 1993, it was essentially today. Do you think he's alone in feeling that way?

So, okay, you say, gay athletes should shrug off rubes like Culliver. If only the locus of anti-gay sentiment was as simple and benign as crass opinions. It's not. It slurs, it's violence, it's murder. Yes, murder. According to the National Coalition of Anti-Violence Programs, there were 30 anti-gay attacks in 2011 that ended with the death of the victim. THIRTY.

It's also workplace discrimination (as well as other forms of discrimination such as housing and hospital visitation rights) that's still legal in most states. The Gay Rights Movement has a ton of momentum right now, but man, we are not anywhere close to where we need to be.

You might say that the best way to fight homophobia is to ignore it. There's a "be the bigger man" line of thinking to that. But you cannot ignore bigoted laws by ignoring them away, nor is it an effective countermeasure against murderers.

The last great civil rights movement wasn't won by ignoring it. The Freedom Marches, the leaders like Martin Luther King, the protesters like Rosa Parks, the martyrs like Medgar Evers, they galvanized a nation and are responsible for the righteous marginalization of racists and abhorrence of racism today.

That's how you win hearts and minds, that's how you pave the way for a generation that truly "does not care," and this is no less than the civil rights struggle of our time. Join it.

And Jason Collins, let me add my voice to the thousands, if not millions, who have already spoken up to have your back. Bless you for having the guts to do what you did. With one well-written column, you changed the course of sports in the United States positively and permanently. You are the first domino to tip himself, and the dominoes falling will result in a sea change that will largely reduce (if not eradicate) bullying and worse against gay kids. You are, indeed, a hero.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:12 AM | Comments (0)

Next Stops For Tim Tebow?

Tim Tebow's release from the New York Jets has left him without a team, but all is not lost. Now is the perfect time for Tebow to open a new chapter is his life, because, let's face it, a new start is probably the only start he can expect these days.

* Quarterbacks coach at Oral Roberts University: What's that, you say? Oral Roberts doesn't even field a football team? Exactly.

* Wall Street broker: Tebow knows a good deal when he sees one — it usually involves giving a lot to get a little. With that knowledge, he could do the exact opposite and make a fortune.

* Backup quarterback for the San Diego Chargers: Tebow would essentially be a Charger for one reason, and one reason only: so Manti T'eo could tell a real quarterback from a fake one.

* Parking valet: what does Tebow need more than anything? Tips! Sure, most will be monetary, but if he's lucky, some drivers will offer quarterbacking advice. Here's hoping Mark Sanchez is willing to park his own car.

* New York waiter: Obviously, Tebow already has a full year's worth of experience waiting in New York. And, now that he's out of a job, it's the perfect way for him to put food on the table.

* New York Yankees left-handed reliever: It may not look like it, but Joe Girardi has more "guts" than Rex Ryan. Rest assured, Girardi, unlike his chubby counterpart, would not be afraid to go to the lefty.

* Contestant on the updated Punk'd, hosted by Rex Ryan: There's this thing called déjà vu; there's another thing called déjà FU. Tebow would experience both on the groundbreaking show.

* Hearse driver for funeral home: Tebow surely knows how to ride the pine; now he gets to drive it.

* Sacrificial virgin: There must be a primitive Mayan tribe somewhere looking for a virgin to sacrifice to their gods. And I'm sure they'd be willing to pay handsomely for Tebow's services. It's the perfect gig for Tebow; if he gets tossed into a volcano, he be spit right back out, unharmed, because he's not a sacrificial virgin, he's a superficial one.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:31 AM | Comments (0)

May 1, 2013

April's Early Warning Signs

The MLB season is still very young, but April told us a handful of things. Some we knew long ago. Some we didn't know. Some we weren't sure about, but have a pretty solid idea now. Others we're still rather confused about.

What we knew...

The Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and Miami Marlins are pretty bad.

Yeah, it's not really shocking that these teams are looking like potential 100-loss teams. The Marlins rank dead last in batting average, slugging, runs scored, and second to last in on base percentage. The Marlins pitching is hardly better, with an ERA of 4.38 as of Monday.

The Cubs pitching actually looks decent if not good so far, but their bats are nearly as anemic as the Marlins' — ranked 28th in runs, batting average, and on base percentage.

Meanwhile the Astros have the worst pitching in Major League Baseball ... by far. They are ranked dead last in ERA (5.51), quality starts (6), WHIP (1.63), and opponents' batting average (.297). While their hitting has been middle of the road, allowing over 5 runs every game makes it hard to win.

Minnesota's April weather is temperamental.

The Twins had to postpone four games in April due to poor weather (3 at home, one in Chicago). They also played quite a few games in the beautiful Target Field in temperatures under 40 degrees. Their game on Sunday vs. the Rangers was 74 degrees. If the Twins ever make the playoffs while playing at Target Field, they could very well play in a blizzard in October.

What we didn't know...

Chris Davis is an all-star-caliber first baseman.

Davis is on pace to have 194 hits, 52 doubles, 58 home runs, and 181 runs batted in. He's batting .349 and is a career .263 hitter. He'll probably cool off a bit, but even still, he looks pretty dang good so far.

The Boston Red Sox are back.

The Red Sox had a rough end to 2011 and a dismal 2012. How bad was 2012? They had the same record as the Miami Marlins. They were dead last in the American League East, finishing 26 games behind the New York Yankees. The Red Sox had a worse record at Fenway than on the road.

April 2013 could not have been more different than September 2012 for the Red Sox. Their bats are among the liveliest in all of baseball. Clay Buchholz is absolutely on fire. Jon Lester has been nearly as good as Buchholz. Ryan Dempster ... well ... he's better than he was for the Rangers in the second half of last season. Those three plus hot bats should keep the Red Sox toward the top of the American League all season.

What we weren't sure about...

Mariano Rivera's return

His return has been surprising and yet not surprising at all. He's been all class and purely phenomenal. So far he's 9/9 in save opportunities. Who knew a 43-year-old would be able to recover from knee surgery and go back to being a dominant closer?

The Blue Jays' acquisitions

The Blue Jays are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball and to make matters worse, the Baltimore Orioles have crawled out of the cellar and are one of baseball's better teams. And the Red Sox, who were terrible in 2012, are now back to their winning ways. The Blue Jays are already 9.5 games behind Boston in the American League East. Their new acquisitions all look to be disasters. Jose Reyes was playing well, but is now on the 60-day disabled list with an ankle injury. Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey look old and mediocre. This was a team that could have contended for a playoff spot if these moves had paid off, but so far, it looks like a lot of wasted resources.

What we're still confused about...

Are the Angels terrible?

You know, after the previous two seasons of slow starts from Albert Pujols, I figured he'd have a slow start again, but I didn't expect Josh Hamilton to have an even slower start than Pujols. Meanwhile, Mike Trout is playing like he played last September, which is decent, but not at an MVP caliber. Mark Trumbo is playing about where you'd expect him to play, but with the three potential MVPs playing in mediocrity, Trumbo looks like the team's best bat. Even so, the Angels are middle of the road to good offensively when compared to the rest of the league.

Their pitching on the other hand has been absolutely atrocious. The Angels pitching staff is second to last in ERA with 4.72 (only to the Astros and that's not saying much). Joe Blanton has been a disaster in Los Angeles. So far he is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.09. He's allowed 7 home runs in 26.2 innings pitched. CJ Wilson hasn't been much better. Jered Weaver is hurt. And the Angels do not look like a dominant team at all. When Weaver comes back, things could turn around pretty quickly, but somebody has to step up offensively or this team will remain in third or fourth in the American League West all season.

Are the Nationals an elite team?

Many people thought the Washington Nationals would be the team to beat this year. After winning a league-high 98 games in 2012, they shut down pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg after 160 innings and lost in their first playoff series to the St. Louis Cardinals. 2013 with a healthy Strasburg and an ever-improving Bryce Harper looked to be a great recipe for 2013. And as of Tuesday morning, the Nationals are sitting at .500.

What's happening? The pitching has been pretty good, but not dominant. Strasburg is 1-4 with an ERA of 3.13. Jordan Zimmerman is pitching well at 4-1 with an ERA of 2.00. Gio Gonzalez is struggling a bit at 2-1 with an ERA of 4.50. And Dan Haren has been terrible so far at 2-3 with an ERA of 6.29.

Meanwhile, the Nationals hitting has a few bright spots and a few black holes. Harper is on fire, looking like he may contend for the triple crown. Shortstop Ian Desmond has also been playing well, batting .303 and newly acquired center fielder Denard Span is having a typical year, batting .277 in the leadoff spot for the Nationals. But Adam LaRoche and Danny Espinosa have been ice-cold, batting .143 and .182, respectively, and driving in only 14 runs between the two of them. Maybe I shouldn't expect more out of Espinosa, but it's embarrassing when three of your team's starting pitchers have better batting averages than you, no matter how early in the season it is.

I think the Nationals can certainly be better than they are now, but Harper needs some support around him if they want to win another 98 games in 2013.

All in all, the 2013 season looks to be an interesting one. Every division seems to have three or four potential contenders. But most likely May will weed out the weaklings and early overachievers. I'm looking at you, Colorado.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 2:54 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 9

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Despite being collected in a spin initiated by Tony Stewart and finishing 12th, Johnson increased his lead in the Sprint Cup point standings. He now leads Carl Edwards by 43.

"My points lead is so big," Johnson said, "only a NASCAR inspector could gain any ground on me.

"I got 'Smoked'; now I'm 'Steamed.' Stewart may be a three-time Cup champion, but judging by his performance this year, I'm not sure I want any of him 'rubbing off' on me."

2. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished sixth at Richmond, posting his fifth top-10 result of the year. He leapt four spots to second in the point standings, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 43.

"How about Matt Kenseth and his connecting rods?" Edwards said. "NASCAR says they didn't weigh enough. I would tend to agree, because I've known Kenseth was a lightweight for years."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt scored his first top-10 finish in the month of April with a 10th in the Toyota Owners 400. He is third in the point standings, 46 out of first.

"It was wild at Richmond International Speedway," Earnhardt said. "There were nut shots, fights, and arrests. It reminded me of Mother's Day with Teresa.

"I may be a 'Junior,' but I wouldn't stoop so low as to kick a competitor in the balls. If I'm going to kick someone where it hurts, it will be a fan of Junior Nation, in the wallet, at the merchandise stand."

4. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer led 113 laps at Richmond and finished second to former teammate Kevin Harvick. He is fifth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 53 out of first.

"I was the top Toyota finisher," Bowyer said. "Which means NASCAR will be watching me as intently as I watch Jeff Gordon.

"In the wake of the Matt Kenseth penalties, Toyota Racing Development recalled three of my engines. Now, Michael Waltrip can say he's just like an ordinary Toyota owner, because now he's experienced a recall."

5. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led a race-high 140 laps at Richmond and finished seventh after a mad green-white-checkered scramble at the finish. It was an impressive result, coming just days after NASCAR levied harsh penalties on the team for illegal parts.

"I don't agree with NASCAR's penalties," Kenseth said. "I feel they were much too strict with their inspection. In other words, I was 'screw-tinized.'"

6. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski struggled at Richmond, finishing 33rd, eight laps down, his worst finish of the season. He is now sixth in the point standings, 59 out of first.

"It's good to see NASCAR's focus on something other than Penske Racing," Keselowski said. "Penalties have become so commonplace, there's practically no difference in the questions 'witch hunt?' and 'which hunt?'"

"Among kicks in the balls in NASCAR this year, Nelson Piquet, Jr.'s may be the most blatant. Is it a surprise that Piquet's right foot was in Brian Scott's crotch? Not really, because it certainly wasn't on the gas pedal.

7. Kevin Harvick — Harvick dashed from seventh to first on the chaotic green-white-checkered finish at Richmond, earning him his first win of the season. Harvick took four tires and, after a great restart, easily picked off Jeff Burton to take the lead.

"I found some extra motivation," Harvick said. "Some Richard Childress Racing drivers needed a kick in the pants, not in the balls. Of course, I was lucky to win. While Nelson Piquet, Jr.'s may have put one up Brian Scott's, I pulled "one" out of mine. And it didn't hurt nearly as much."

8. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished 21st in the Toyota Owners 400 on a night when only one Hendrick Motorsports driver finished in the top 10. Kahne is tied for third in the point standings, 46 out of first.

"It was a wild weekend at Richmond," Kahne said. "Now, I can say the same thing to Nelson Piquet, Jr. that I would say to a lovely Sprint Cup girl: 'nice rack.' Between them, my teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have nine Cups. Hopefully, they can spare one for me to wear."

9. Kyle Busch — Busch's No. 18 Toyota was damaged when Jimmie Johnson's No. 48, sent reeling by Tony Stewart, spun into Busch's path. Busch eventually finished 24th, ending his run of four consecutive spring victories at Richmond.

"They say good things come in three's," Busch said. "But bad things come in two's, like damaged Busch brother cars at Richmond, Tony Stewart chins, and bruised Brian Scott testicles."

10. Greg Biffle — Biffle suffered a broken shock and spun about midway through Saturday's race. He finished 36th, 15 laps down, and tumbled four spots in the point standings. He is now eighth, 71 out of first.

"Of all the wild occurrences over the weekend," Biffle said, "mine was the least shocking. Take it from Brian Scott — a swift kick in the nuts can really cause momentary confusion. Medically, that's known as a loss of your ball bearings.

"But Nelson Piquet, Jr. isn't completely at fault. He made millions of NFL fans happy, because 'foot-ball' season came early this year."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:18 AM | Comments (0)