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April 30, 2013

On Second Chances

Last week, the Cleveland Cavaliers introduced former Lakers head coach Mike Brown as the team's replacement for the fired Byron Scott. Of course, three years ago, the former-Laker Scott was introduced as the team's replacement for the fired Brown, but Scott's role as the pivot only confuses the issue.

No, the headline of the transaction is that Cleveland, just three years removed from determining Brown was unworthy of its coaching job, decided they had to move quickly and hire Brown for that same job before his services were snatched up elsewhere.

Brown's hiring generated two levels of perplexion. Of course rehiring an employee previously fired from the same position deserves snorts of disbelief, just as a Texas Hold 'em flop of three aces does; we quickly learn to recognize and appreciate a brief gust of the improbable when it blows through our backyards, knowing well that it will soon be replaced by a steady flow of the mundanely expected.

But a second reaction mounted in the days after the reintroduction. To many, the Brown era was a clear failure because it spent peak LeBron James years and yielded zero Finals wins. If championships are the goal, they asked, how could Brown's reign possibly be considered successful?

In the wake of James' first championship with Miami last year, his history in Cleveland has been rewritten into an easily digestible platitude. The popular narrative suggests that James' late Cavs teams failed to win championships through some unholy concurrence of the awful roster surrounding him, his own mental and emotional shortcomings, and Brown's comically inept coaching, particularly on offense.

But for this thread to be true, it requires more than revisions to history. The "failure" of Brown's Cavs necessitates entire chapters to be shredded and burned.

The 2012-13 Miami Heat completed the league's second longest winning streak and cruised to the top seed in the playoffs. With 66 wins, they will go down as a historically great team. In Brown's best season, 2008-09, the high point of a five-year period widely tagged as a failure, the Cavs won ... 66 games.

In fact, considering the improvements James has made to his game and the contributions of Dwyane Wade, the other future Hall of Famer with whom he shares a locker room, Brown's 66-win season earns the nod on degree of difficulty.

The real truth, the one that can't be twisted or watered down to drive page views or ratings points, is that James and Brown's fates are intertwined. In a little over a year, James will once again be making a decision about the future home of his talents. There is a good chance his situation in Miami will be too efficient and comfortable for him to leave.

But at the same time, rumors persist. We hear James' family isn't happy in South Florida. We hear James wants to be able to live in his native Ohio more popularly. We speculate that with his first title(s) out of the way, James would be freer to try to relieve Cleveland of its championship drought.

The Cavs' salary cap structure easily makes James' return to Cleveland a financial possibility, a fact not lost on Cavs fans, which made Brown's rehiring even more puzzling to some. James not only left the opportunity to play for the organization with Brown in 2010; many reported that a falling out between the two led to Brown's dismissal in the first place.

But this is hidden value in second chances. Reprising a role we once left does not doom us to repeat its outcome. Brown and the Cavs have the advantage of skipping the slow slog of the introductory phase of their relationship. The coach knows the area, the facility, and the parts of the organization that remain from his first stint. With that chaff already separated, Brown can get to work on harvesting better results from the young seeds collected in the past three years.

In truth, second chances can never really be repeats of the past. The time in between allows for growth and improvement. Since his firing, Brown spent a season and change with the Lakers and some time analyzing the game on TV. These three years should have been very fertile ground for the growth of a young coach.

In acting as decisively as they did in hiring Brown, the Cavs clearly believe the coach they hired last week is better than the one they fired in 2010. If he is not, then the pain of the next few years will be a just return for both.

As for James, those who mocked Brown's hiring by asking why the league's best player would want to recreate his failed early years are mistaken. Next summer, the Cleveland that will court him will have a much different pitch than the one that could not retain him in 2010. Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, and Tristan Thompson are probably as promising as any young player James played with in his first seven years. The Cavs are flush with salary cap room to add veteran role players to surround James. And the familiar coach he presumably would be playing for should have a few new tricks this time around.

Just don't call it a second chance.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 8:25 AM | Comments (0)

April 29, 2013

2013 NFL Draft Winners and Losers

Over the next several paragraphs, I'll explain why I rated teams where I did. If you don't care about the methodology, by all means skip ahead.

I'm an NFL writer, and I don't follow college football closely enough to make insightful judgments about which players are and are not likely to succeed at the pro level. Instead, for each team, I'm looking at two fundamental goals: [1] Did the team get good value for its picks, and [2] Did those picks fill needs?

The two goals are often at odds with one another. Team A may look at the holes on its roster and address all those needs in the draft, but reach for players simply because of what positions they play. Team B might employ a "best player available" strategy and end up with a lot of talent, but at the end of the day they've got two good quarterbacks and five startable corners, but no one who can play left tackle or middle linebacker.

In my mind, those are both pretty average drafts, not winners or losers. I'm looking for teams that addressed their needs without reaching for lesser talent, made profitable trades, and selected highly-rated players long after we thought they'd be off the board. Conversely, even if you got good players, taking someone who probably would have been available a round later — I don't see that as a good pick. Most drafts are close to average, so not every team is listed.

2013 Draft Winners

* San Diego Chargers — One of my favorite drafts this year. D.J. Fluker was probably the last can't-miss offensive lineman in this draft, and he should provide a crucial boost in an area where the Chargers desperately need help. The team traded up to select Manti Te'o, and if he can avoid distractions, he's worth the same pick a round earlier. Third-round WR Keenan Allen fills a critical need in the watered-down receiving corps.

* St. Louis Rams — Still reaping the benefits of last year's trade with Washington, they moved up to get wide receiver Tavon Austin. Between the additions of Austin and Pro Bowl tackle Jake Long, the Rams expect to field a strong offense this season, and Sam Bradford has no excuses not to take the next step forward.

* Offensive linemen — Dominated the first round. Three of the first four players selected were offensive linemen, and that trend continued to include five of the top 10 and eight of the top 20.

* Minnesota Vikings — First team in over a decade to make three first-round selections in a single draft. Sharrif Floyd is a potential impact player who unexpectedly dropped and could rejuvenate Minnesota's scary defensive line. CB Xavier Rhodes was an important addition in the pass-happy NFC North, and a trade with the Patriots yielded Cordarrelle Patterson, whom the team hopes will replace Percy Harvin. That's a big hole, but Harvin's potential was tempered by his health and his unhappiness in Minnesota. Replacing Harvin with Patterson is not an obvious downgrade.

* Carolina Panthers — New GM Dave Gettleman drew praise from around the league for his first two draft picks, interior defensive linemen Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short. Paired with productive defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy, Lotulelei and Short should give Carolina one of the stronger defensive lines in the league, turning a weakness into a strength. (I don't mean to parrot other analysts, because almost everyone said that about these picks, but this is consensus founded in probable reality.)

Third-day draft picks seldom yield impact players, but even rolling the dice, I like the positions the Panthers targeted in the later rounds. Promising start for Gettleman.

* San Francisco 49ers — If you count Anquan Boldin as part of their draft — and you should, since that's where their 6th-round draft pick went — then it's a success almost immediately. Meanwhile, the team turned backup QB Alex Smith into a second-rounder this year (Cornellius Carradine) and a third-rounder in 2014. Replacing Smith, the team sacrificed a couple of low draft picks to acquire Colt McCoy. This was a rich-get-richer draft for San Francisco, adding quality players but not necessarily addressing needs.

* Cincinnati Bengals — I actually like this draft less than their last two, but they made 10 picks, including four in the first three rounds. Tyler Eifert was the top tight end in the draft, Giovani Bernard provides an alternative to BenJarvus Green-Ellis at RB, and Margus Hunt is a huge (6'8") defensive lineman with upside.

* Alabama Crimson Tide — 'Bama and Florida State were the only schools to boast three first-round selections, but all three Alabama players were chosen before anyone from FSU was off the board.

* Jacksonville Jaguars — I would have preferred them to spend two of their first three picks on offense, not defense, but this is a bad team with a lot of needs, and it drafted highly regarded players in value positions. There's a long way to go, but this draft was probably a step in the right direction.

Question Marks

* Green Bay Packers — Some mock drafts had them taking Alabama running back Eddie Lacy in the first round, 26th overall. They got a pass rusher (UCLA's Datone Jones) at 26th and took Lacy at the end of the second round. That's what I'm talking about with value. But I dropped them from the Winners list, because they traded up to choose another RB, Johnathan Franklin, in the fourth round. The appeal of taking an RB was to get away from Running Back By Committee, and now it looks like they're just changing the committee members.

As a side note, it's jarring to see that NFL.com lists Lacy at 5-11, 231 (32.2 BMI) and Yahoo lists him as 6 feet, 220 (29.8 BMI). That's the difference between Rashard Mendenhall (5-10, 225, 32.3) and Arian Foster (6-1, 227, 29.9).

* Philadelphia Eagles — New coach Chip Kelly is building a team with a particular vision. Sometimes that works out, especially when a coach has the confidence and support of ownership. Other times (like Josh McDaniels in Denver), it's just a disaster.

Most intriguing, the Eagles traded up to get Kelly's old PAC-12 rival, former USC quarterback Matt Barkley. That could be a terrific value pick in the fourth round, or it could be too many cooks in the kitchen with Michael Vick, Nick Foles, and Barkley all competing for the same position. The guess here is that Barkley spends most of his first season as the third-string QB and competes for a starting job in 2014.

* New York Jets — They had four picks in the first three rounds and they got some good prospects. But Dee Milliner replaces Darrelle Revis, and that's a downgrade. Any other team with a QB need, I would have loved Geno Smith 39th overall. But on the Jets, he joins former first-rounders Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow, and I worry that it just creates more drama. Smith probably is not ready to produce immediately the way we saw from Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III last year, but he may be forced into action before he's ready just to prevent Jets fans from revolting if Sanchez struggles again.

* Tampa Bay Buccaneers — I like the Revis trade a lot, but I'm not crazy about the rest of their draft, particularly QB Mike Glennon in the third round. The Bucs have a 25-year-old QB who threw for 4,000 yards last season. Josh Freeman has been up-and-down, but he's still young and he's got tremendous upside. Tampa just spent its second pick of the draft on someone the team hopes it will never put on the field.

* Cleveland Browns — Only five draft picks, and only two in the first five rounds, but they made some nice trades. Two sacrificed draft picks in this weekend's draft (fourth and fifth) will yield two extra picks (third and fourth) in next year's. The Browns moved up and added a draft slot this year in return for a player they didn't want any more (Colt McCoy), and they gave up almost nothing to get WR Davone Bess from Miami. Bess will probably never be a star, but he's caught at least 50 passes in all five of his NFL seasons, and adds some legitimacy to Cleveland's miserable receiving corps

2013 Draft Losers

* The Big Ten — For the second season in a row, no one from this misnamed conference (Big 14?) was drafted in the top 20. In fact, Wisconsin center Travis Frederick was the only Big Ten player taken in the first round, and he went 31st, the second-to-last pick of the round. Eleven SEC players went before anyone from the Big Ten. Six players from the football-weak ACC got drafted before anyone from the Big Ten. This is supposed to be a powerhouse conference, but pro scouts obviously feel otherwise. I don't think adding Maryland and Rutgers is going to help.

* Dallas Cowboys — Everyone likes the Gavin Escobar pick, and he doesn't have to clash with Jason Witten, because in today's NFL it's not unusual to play two tight ends. But I would have liked to see the Cowboys do more to address their defense, and a good trade down in the first round (18th to 31st) may have been squandered in choosing Terrance Williams with their extra draft pick. Many analysts have questions about his game, and wide receiver was not an early-round need compared to other positions. First-rounder Travis Frederick has limited upside.

* Running Backs — The common draft came into being almost 50 years ago, and in that time there had never been a draft in which no running backs were selected during the first round. This year, five RBs went off the board in the second round, but none in the first 32 picks. UNC's Giovani Bernard was the first one chosen, 37th overall by the Bengals.

* Big-name Prospects — This was a brutal draft for football's glory positions. Quarterback Geno Smith, projected as a potential top-10 pick based on need, slid to the second round. Notre Dame's Manti T'eo, projected a few months ago as a probable top-10 selection, fell to the second round as well. USC QB Matt Barkley plummeted to the fourth round.

* Sharrif Floyd — Projected as a top-five selection, he dropped to 23rd. People talk about Geno Smith and Manti T'eo, but Smith was only a potential high pick because this QB class is so limited, and everyone knew T'eo was going to fall somewhat after his bizarre off-field drama. Floyd, as late as Thursday afternoon, had to be confident that he'd go in the top 10, but he didn't get drafted in the top 20.

* Chicago Bears — They mostly targeted the right positions — offensive line, a middle linebacker to replace Brian Urlacher — but many league observers believe they reached on both of their early picks, making questionable selections of players with good qualities but also obvious flaws.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:29 PM | Comments (0)

April 27, 2013

Foul Territory: Arresting Developments

* Do You Believe in Manacles? Yessss!!! Or Michaels on "Ice" — Al Michaels was arrested and charged with a DUI last Friday in Southern California. Michaels can now add "police" to the list of stations with which he's been affiliated. When informed of the story, former Green Bay Packer Antonio Freeman said, "he did what?!"

* Ivanovic is Serbian, So He Almost Tasted Like "Chechnyan" — Liverpool forward Luis Suarez received a 10-match ban for biting Chelsea defender Branislav Ivanovic during a Premier League match on Sunday. In his defense, Suarez said he's always liked his soccer with a European flavor.

* Unlike Anything John Calipari's Done, This is Permanent — Louisville's Rick Pitino fulfilled a promise to his team and got a tattoo on his back commemorating the Cardinals national championship. It's certainly not the first time someone affiliated with Louisville basketball was asked to lie face down on a table.

* Is There a Draft in Here? — The Kansas City Chiefs selected Central Michigan offensive lineman Eric Fisher with the first pick in Thursday's NFL draft. It's the most glad-handing Roger Goodell's done since the owner's meetings.

* It's Not Quite Deer Antler Spray, But Pepper Spray Will Do, or That's "Po,'" Raven — Baltimore Ravens linebacker Rolando McClain was arrested on Sunday in Decatur, Alabama on charges of disorderly conduct and resisting arrest after a disturbance at a park. It's the fastest any linebacker has gone from outside to "inside."

* All Up in Their Grill, or the Little Engine That Could (Not Have Without Cheating) — NASCAR docked Matt Kenseth 50 points and fined crew chief Jason Ratliff $200,000 after his engine failed a post-race inspection following the STP 400 at Kansas Motor Speedway. It was likely the most thorough inspection in history, yet no weapons of mass destruction were found.

* This Should Get the Fans Out of Their Seats — The New York Knicks J.R. Smith won the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year Award on Sunday, beating out Indiana's Jamal Crawford for the honor. To commemorate the occasion, Smith got another tattoo, this time on his rear end.

* College Football Playoffs?! Playoffs?! You're Calling it College Football Playoffs?! — The NCAA will call its new four-team playoff, which starts after the 2014 regular season, the "College Football Playoffs." In this case, the NCAA obviously showed nowhere near the amount of creativity they did in the University of Miami investigation.

* Texas "Toast" — The first championship game of the College Football Playoffs will be held at Cowboys Stadium. It's the best reason yet for Jerry Jones to hang a banner in the stadium.

* The Biggest Hit He Made Last Year Was on the Salary Cap — The Cincinnati Bengals signed free agent and former Pittsburgh Steeler linebacker James Harrison to a two-year deal. Unlike former Bengals Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens, Harrison is expected to cause headaches for opponents.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:26 PM | Comments (0)

April 25, 2013

Judging Teams in a Shortened NHL Season

Forty-eight games is roughly half of a regular NHL season. If things had started as normal in October, 48 games would plant us somewhere in January — the trade deadline would just be around the corner instead of teams either gearing up for the Stanley Cup playoffs or packing their bags for Vegas. For those teams that are headed to a non-playoff off-season, there has been plenty of grumbling among fans (and if you're looking for a silver lining to the lockout, at least it shortened the torture of a bad season).

However, it's important to be objective regarding the results of a lockout-shortened season. Every team's situation is a little different, but there are certainly teams that have to wonder if the luxury of a full season might have changed things. For example, the Carolina Hurricanes might have been able to weather the storm if they had time to resolve their goaltending situation. Similarly, Ilya Kovalchuk was the straw stirring the New Jersey Devils, and his loss led to their inevitable downfall. The Florida Panthers lost key players at all positions during the first half of March, making it nearly impossible for them to capitalize on the momentum from last year's playoff run.

Of course, there are teams that would have probably been destined for the scrap heap whether they played 48 games or 82 games. The Edmonton Oilers carry a ton of forward talent, but are undersized with many defensive issues; they're simply a poorly constructed top-heavy team. The Colorado Avalanche face both systemic and roster issues, and that starts from the head of the beast.

But for the teams that fall into that gray area of "things might have changed," it's easy for fans to be reactive and consider wholesale changes. In most of the cases, though, these are focused issues that have been exposed due to circumstance.

Consider the Hurricanes — with Cam Ward out, Carolina's large shots-against total impacted the team's ability to defend a lead sans an elite goalie. The issue here, then, probably isn't the organization's lack of goaltending depth, but more so the defensive side of Kirk Muller's system. Similarly, the Devils were exposed as a razor-thin forward group without Ilya Kovalchuk, and that demonstrates the need to address the giant hole left by Zach Parise's departure, either by a single player or by committee.

The eventual Stanley Cup winner will celebrate a championship won the same way it is any other season — 16 wins over four rounds. For those teams that don't make the annual tournament, though, it's reasonable to consider the overall record as an asterisk season. Had this been a full 82-game season, the issues created by injuries could have been alleviated simply over time or through the trade deadline. Instead, there's a great air of what might have been for a few squads, and while there's disappointment in squandering a season of potential, the unique circumstances of the 2013 NHL season mean that there doesn't necessarily have to be a panic button — yet.

Posted by Mike Chen at 7:05 PM | Comments (0)

April 24, 2013

Wait 'Till Next Year

For one-half (plus one) of the NBA, the second season is underway, with 16 victories separating one team from the league championship. For the other half (minus one), the long vacation known as the offseason is now in session. I mean, sure, there's still work to be done.

What spot will they get in the Draft Lottery?

What college or international talent will each organization used 'said' spot on?

And, in some cases, who might be in charge of next year's campaign?

The answers to these questions may not be defined yet, but the goal at the end is all the same ... find a way to continue playing past the mid-point of April 2014. That's what Golden State figured out. At this time last year, they were well back in the race for postseason entry. But the Warriors switched their fortunes around this season, making the playoffs for only the second time since 1994.

Usually, there's one or two teams that come out of nowhere to surprise the standard order of things and make it into the postseason. Right now, 14 franchises believe that they're full of the potential to make a run next season. Which ones have the most potential to actually turn things in their favor?

3) Portland Trailblazers

There are two reasons for optimism with this young team. LaMarcus Aldridge is still one of the more productive power forwards in the game, and Damian Lillard established himself as an efficient scorer in his rookie season. Aldridge should stay at a high level well past 2013-2014. Lillard should only improve heading into next season.

The rest of the roster will be up to coach Terry Stotts. It'll be his job to improve the consistency of Nicholas Batum, J.J. Hickson, Meyers Leonard, and Will Barton, among others. They could also take a couple of those pieces and look for a certified low-post presence. If they can arrange to snag that third piece to go along with Aldridge and Lillard, that might help more than anything.

The Biggest Issue — In this case, I believe it's the division they call home. Currently, there are three playoff teams in it. That means it won't be easy to make strides, especially with a pretty young nucleus. A year of seasoning will do the Blazers good, but it might take a bigger advance in age to get through the grind of a postseason run.

2) Minnesota Timberwolves

In this case, I could be too far in the forest to see the trees. This is the team I'm physically closest to, but the organization hasn't been the same since they let go of future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett. There have been flashes over the last few years. Al Jefferson got his first chance to shine here. Kevin Love turned himself into an all-star here. Ricky Rubio is showing that he CAN play here. Unfortunately, that hasn't resulted in sustained success.

I've had the fortune of seeing them in person a few times during the season. Despite the revolving door of injuries, this team continued to fight until the last game of the year. The changes made last offseason improved the team dramatically, but when you can't keep the pieces together on the floor, you can't expect to sniff .500, much less make a playoff push. Plus, that division issue that bogs down Portland's chance ... well, it's the same here.

The Biggest Issue — I actually don't believe that injuries will be as much of a factor going forward as they were this season. I also don't think that any Kevin Love trade speculation will create any issues. The team held their own without him for the majority of the year. The most pressing concern is with head coach Rick Adelman. This has probably been his most trying season on the bench, both professionally and personally. If he decides to take a leave of any extent from the sidelines, that might stunt the growth this team showed late in the season.

1) Washington Wizards

Each year, it seems that some star proves their worthiness for MVP votes based on their absence. This year, the leading candidate, by a wide margin, was John Wall. Before the point guard worked his way back on the court from a knee injury, the team went 5-28. From January 12th on, they went 24-25 (despite losing their final six games). That would have them on pace for 8th in the Eastern Conference.

With Wall back and rookie Bradley Beal getting substantial minutes this year, the District might have one of the more dynamic backcourts in the Association. Even though Wall and Beal are incredibly young (22 and 19, respectively), there are veterans all over the roster (Nene, Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor, etc.). Plus, Jason Collins is the only player currently on the roster that's over the age of 30.

The Biggest Issue — There's not a lot to really criticize about this team progression. I don't even think you can take any shots at the coaching situation. If there was a position I would stress in the upcoming Draft, I might focus on them getting more of a playmaker at small forward or another post-oriented big man. Other than that, their floor is quickly rising.

For those that don't end up holding the Larry O'Brien Trophy, a successful season is only a year away. For the ones that have to contemplate their lottery picks this time around, we'll find out who gets to count that success as an opportunity to play an 83rd game in 2014.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 7:59 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 8

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished third in the STP 400 at Kansas and lengthened his lead in the Sprint Cup point standings. He now leads Hendrick teammate Kasey Kahne by 37.

"That's a heck of a cushion after eight races," Johnson said. "If there were debris cautions in the point standings, NASCAR would fly one now."

"Brad Keselowski swears his team did nothing wrong. He gives new meaning to the term 'defending' champ. Penske is appealing their punishment, but NASCAR probably won't change their mind. That ship has sailed, or better yet, that ship has been 'docked.'"

2. Kasey Kahne — Kahne posted his fifth top-five of the year, taking the runner-up spot in the STP 400 at Kansas Motor Speedway. He leaped five places in the point standings to second, where he trails Jimmie Johnson by 37.

"I just couldn't make the pass on Matt Kenseth," Kahne said. "He's like the NASCAR rule book to Penske Racing — there's just no getting around it."

3. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski closed an eventful week with a sixth in the STP 400, overcoming early damage to claim his seventh top-10 finish of the year. Earlier in the week, the No. 2 Miller Lite team was docked 25 points for an unapproved part in Texas.

"As you may have seen," Keselowski said, "my rear bumper cover flew off near the end of the race. That's not the only time my car's rear end has been 'uncovered' lately.

"I'm sure NASCAR has heard enough me lately. It's not often NASCAR quotes David Gilliland, but they'd like me to 'shut up and race.'"

4. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished 19th at Kansas on a tough day for Roush Fenway Racing, as the team failed to produce a top-10 finish. Biffle fell one spot to fourth in the point standings, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 47.

"Roger Penske said the team was working in a 'gray area' of the rule book," Biffle said. "Apparently, that's another area in which NASCAR lacks 'color.'"

5. Kyle Busch — Busch struggled in the STP 400, spinning twice, the second of which sent him into the wall and sliding into the path of Joey Logano's No. 22 Penske Ford, which slammed Busch's Toyota. Both cars were done for the day, and Busch finished 38th, his worst finish this season since a 34th at Daytona.

"Logano has a 'nose' for Joe Gibbs Racing cars," Busch said. "That's in stark contrast to his 'tail' for NASCAR inspectors."

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 16th at Kansas, his third consecutive finish outside the top 10. After taking the points lead after a runner-up finish at California, Earnhardt is now tied for fifth, 35 out of first.

"That last caution ruined our chances," Earnhardt said. "I hate flag waving, unless it's green, checkered, or done by my fanatical fan base. But I'm not one to complain. I don't need some two-bit driver to tell me to 'shut up and race.'"

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth won his second race of the year, capturing the STP 400 after a timely caution flag gave him the lead with about 40 laps to go. He held off Kasey Kahne down the stretch, and is now eighth in the point standings, 59 out of first.

"Thank goodness for Brad Keselowski's rear bumper flying off," Kenseth said. "And I commend Keselowski for his defiance. NASCAR throws the book at him, and he throws back! He's one tough customer. If he were a professional wrestler, he would hail from 'Parts Unknown.'"

8. Carl Edwards — Edwards led 19 laps at Kansas, but fell a lap down after an untimely caution and finished 17th. He fell one spot to sixth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 49 out of first.

"I'm no stranger to having a muscular physique, Edwards said. "And I'm no stranger to losing points due to a failed inspection. You could say I've been 'sculpted' and 'busted.'"

9. Paul Menard — Menard led the Richard Childress Racing charge at Kansas, finishing 10th while teammate Kevin Harvick came home 12th. Menard is now 10th in the point standings, 71 out of the lead.

"Harvick has an average finish of 16th this season," Menard said. "On a related note, Jimmy John's has introduced a new topping for their sandwiches in Kevin's honor — it's called the 'medi-okra.'"

10. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer posted his fourth top-five result of the season with a fifth in the STP 400. He is ninth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 64 out of first.

"David Gilliland did what many of us have wanted to," Bowyer said. "No, not put Danica in her place, but talk dirty to her.

"As you may have heard, I just opened the Clint Bowyer Autoplex in Emporia, Kansas. It's been a dream of mine to own a car dealership. Let that be a lesson to the youngsters: if you chase your dreams, you may catch them. And, if you chase Jeff Gordon, you may not."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:16 PM | Comments (0)

April 23, 2013

Warren Spahn's Prime

Hall of Fame pitcher Warren Spahn was born 82 years ago this week, on April 23, 1921. In January, Joe Posnanski wrote in a post about the greatest pitchers of all time that "Warren Spahn sustained a long career, but did not have the dominant peak." That characterization surprised me, so I now present Warren Spahn's Hall of Fame prime.

I suppose "dominant peak" is relative; it's true that Spahn never had a season like Bob Gibson in '68. But Spahn nonetheless had a long, deeply impressive prime. He led the National League in wins eight times, most of any pitcher since World War II. I know wins are an overrated statistic, but can you really lead your league in wins eight times without a dominant peak? Spahn led the NL in complete games nine times. He led in innings, shutouts, strikeouts, and WHIP four times each. He led in ERA three times and ranked in the top five six other times.

According to Bill James' Black Ink calculation (leading the league in major statistics), Spahn ranks fourth among pitchers, trailing only Walter Johnson, Grover Cleveland Alexander, and Lefty Grove. He's tops among post-war pitchers. In Gray Ink (top-10), he's third, behind Cy Young and Johnson, and far ahead of sixth-place Greg Maddux among post-war pitchers. Can someone who so often led his league statistically really have a non-dominant peak, a prime that rates unimpressively against his peers?

Posnanski used Wins Above Replacement (as calculated at Baseball Reference) to measure dominance, and it is true that all-time WAR does not show Spahn as a top-10 pitcher. But most analysts, including Posnanski, acknowledge that WAR has limitations and that it is not equally fair to all players. I'm not trying to pick on Posnanski or what he wrote, because his phrase was just one of those little things that leapt out at me: a jumping-off point.

According to rWAR, Spahn had 10 5-win seasons, the sabermetric standard for an all-star season. But those 10 seasons don't include 1957 (when Spahn won the MLB-wide Cy Young) or two seasons ('58 and '61) when he led the NL in both wins and WHIP. I have a lot of respect for sabermetricians, but I think most would admit that their evaluation of pitchers and fielders hasn't caught up to statistical analysis of batters. Baseball Reference has Spahn at 4.1 WAR in 1961, when he led the NL in wins, ERA, WHIP, complete games, and shutouts. I'm skeptical that you could replace Spahn with a free agent or minor league prospect and only lose four games in the bargain*. You find the same thing in other years, and I'm convinced that WAR underrates Spahn. Even so, he ranked among MLB's top 10 pitchers in rWAR 11 times.

* Since this post was inspired by Joe Posnanski, I'm going to borrow his "Posterisk" format. In 1961, the Braves went 39-24 (.619) when either Spahn or Lew Burdette got the decision, compared to 44-47 (.484) in their other games. Spahn's ERA (3.02) was almost a full run better than Burdette's (4.00). This was not a great team, with Spahn along for the ride. It was a great team when Spahn pitched, with everyone else along for the ride.

Spahn threw four shutouts in '61. One was a blowout (8-0), and one a comfortable win (4-0), but the others were both 1-0, with Spahn allowing a combined three hits (all singles) in the two games. Beyond the shutouts, that year Spahn won four complete games 2-1. He won 3-1, won 3-2 in extra innings. It was an exceptional year, and it earned Spahn the most Cy Young votes of any pitcher in the NL. According to WAR, that was Spahn's 12th-best season. Can you imagine what his actual prime was like?

Posnanski used a seven-year standard — any seven years, not necessarily consecutive — to determine a pitcher's prime, so I'll do the same, though seven years seems long. Reasonable people might disagree about which seasons constitute Spahn's prime, but 1947-53 produces his top consecutive-season WAR total. From 1947-53, Spahn led the major leagues in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings, complete games, shutouts, and WAR (rWAR and fWAR). Even with good defensive play from his teammates, that's dominant.

Of course, the thing about Spahn's career is that you could jump way ahead — say, 1957-63, a decade later — and he'd still look great. During those seven seasons, Spahn led the majors in wins by about four per year, his 147 far outpacing Whitey Ford (119) and Don Drysdale (118). Spahn also led in innings and led in complete games by about 50% (145; Drysdale and Bob Friend tied for second with 91). He led the majors in WHIP, and led the NL in ERA (ahead of both Drysdale and Koufax). This is for the seven years a decade after his prime, and he's still (at least arguably) the most dominant pitcher in baseball. If you really pieced together Spahn's seven best seasons, you could come up with dozens of reasonable combinations.

I've quoted wins a lot, and I'm sure most readers recognize the weaknesses of that statistic, in particular that baseball is a team sport; fielding and run support matter. Spahn had good teammates. He played with Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews in their primes. But the biggest factor in whether or not the Braves won was whether or not Spahn was on the mound. For the seasons in which Spahn won the most games — going just by wins, in his seven best years he was 153-70 (.686) — the Braves went 437-426 (.506) in all other games, 180 points lower. Put Aaron and Mathews on the field with Johnny Sain or Gene Conley, and the Braves were a .500 team.

I've used mostly gross numbers because I don't feel that efficiency stats by themselves do Spahn justice. He was a legendary workhorse, who won more games than any pitcher since integration and pitched more innings than any but Nolan Ryan. Just as you don't expect starters to match a closer's numbers, you can't expect someone who leads the league in complete games every year to have the same ERA or K/9 as a pitcher who throws six or seven innings and then hits the showers.

But it's not just stats that make the case for Spahn's greatness; he rates just as well when you look at contemporary opinion: how was he rated against his peers? The Cy Young Award originated in 1956, when Spahn was 35. Despite that, and despite that the award was for both major leagues, Spahn placed top three in Cy Young voting five of the first six years the award was given. In his late 30s and early 40s, beyond his prime, Spahn was still considered one of the three best pitchers in the majors.

But since the Cy Young Award doesn't span his career, and misses his best years, maybe instead we could look at MVP voting? Spahn was the top pitcher in NL MVP voting four times, and top-three a total of seven times. That's a pretty nice seven-year standard: every season as one of the top three pitchers in the league.

I get that Posnanski was comparing Spahn to Roger Clemens, Lefty Grove, Walter Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Tom Seaver. Using that standard, I suppose he didn't have an exceptional prime. But even compared to a "normal" Hall of Famer, Spahn was among the most dominant pitchers in history.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:47 AM | Comments (0)

April 22, 2013

Welcome to the NBA Playoffs

Welcome to the NBA playoffs. The tedious 82-game schedule has culminated into a 16-team race, a two-month battle to determine a champion. Okay, maybe it's a 15-team race (better luck next year, Milwaukee). Every play is game-changing and every call is put under a microscope. The intensity is raised, the crowds are louder, and quite frankly, teams play harder. Some players prove to love the moment, while others fade under the pressure. Regardless, the Playoff season is one of the most exciting times of the year, and one which will surely answer all of our burning questions. What are these burning questions, you ask? Well...

(Note to reader: When analyzing these upcoming inquiries, rarely will I use statistics as a form of judgment. I may throw out a few numbers to prove a point or offer a suggestion, but I am attempting to create a picture of what to expect in the playoffs, an image that endless statistics just can't convey.)

Will the Blake Show continue?

No, I'm not talking about Blake Griffin. In the two games since Bryant's injury, Steve Blake has been Kobe Bryant-esque. Scoring 23 and 24 against the Spurs and Rockets respectively, Blake, among others, helped the Lakers clinch the seventh spot in the West.

Let's remember, without Blake, we would probably still be watching Jazz games. We are all thankful.

Steve Nash's anticipated return will cut his minutes, but Blake could still be an integral part of a potential Lakers' playoff run. Tony Parker is more injured than he is letting on and was unquestionably outplayed by Blake last week. If the Lakers are able to take advantage with a one-two punch of Steve Nash and Blake, this will be a closer series than you may expect.

Kobe is a monumental loss, but now Dwight Howard can become the go-to-guy. He's been hurt, as well, but the Lakers' mediocre supporting cast is still stronger than Howard's when he led the Orlando Magic to the Finals. With Dwight as the vocal point and the emergence of a guy like Blake as another scorer, the Spurs better watch out.

That being said, I'll still take the Spurs in seven.

What will be the most overused phrases of the playoffs?

"The series doesn't start until a team wins a road game."

So ... have I been dreaming this whole time?

"We just have to take it one game at a time."

The "it wasn't you, it's me" of post-game interviews.

"Tim Duncan off the glass for two."

The best power forward of all-time is still going strong.

What three players will make a statement?

Jeff Green – Right now, he is the most talented Celtic. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are Hall of Famers who are still the leaders of the team and the ones who will be taking the shots in crunch time, but Green's talent is incomparable. He's had a superb second half of the season and is geared for an even bigger playoffs. Green plays hard and he does it on both ends of the court, as he will probably be guarding Carmello Anthony throughout most of the series. This is a guy who had heart surgery just over a year ago. The Celtics may not get out of the first round, but Green will prove his worth this playoffs.

Andre Igoudala – Igoudala got run out of Philly because they wanted him to be a superstar. But that's not what Igoudala is. He's a leader, a great defender, and an athletic specimen who's tough to stop in the open court. Igoudala is still an inconsistent scorer, but has proven he is a clutch performer, especially in the playoffs. Last year, he sealed Game 6 and the series against the Chicago Bulls with two pressure-filled foul shots. He led the Sixers to Game 7 against the Celtics, and if a few plays went the other way, Philadelphia could have been playing the Heat in the Conference Finals. Look what Philly did this year without Igoudala. He has a more comfortable role with the Nuggets and I think he is primed for a big playoff run this year. Besides, doesn't everyone play well against the Warriors?

Deron Williams – All I've heard this year is how Deron Williams has lost it. He's not quick anymore. He's fat. Let's all relax a little bit. Williams played this year like the Celtics the past few years. They may be a little slow in the regular season. Maybe a little injured. A little tired. But, they know they still got what it takes to earn a playoff spot and when the moment calls, they usually perform. Williams has admittedly not had a great year, but has had a major resurgence the past few months and is playing his best ball entering the playoffs. Deron Williams will be ready, and I think Brooklyn has a better shot than either Indiana or New York to give the Heat a run for their money.

What is the best tattoo of the playoffs? The boldest prediction?

This is a tough one. While I admire Birdman's multi-colored neck, the ambiguity of the actual number of individual tattoos on his neck disqualifies him from the competition.

I have to give it to Kenyon Martin's crown on his neck. The crown was formerly a pair of lips in dedication of his girlfriend, but after their breakup Martin got the tattoo re-inked.

Honorable mention: DeShawn Stevenson's five-dollar bill neck tattoo. Shout out to Honest Abe.

As for the boldest prediction, this is a no-brainer. Brandon Jennings' "Bucks in six" forecast takes the cake. Really, Brandon? You are giving the defending champions and best team in the league two wins against your under .500 team that would have placed 11th in the West? A little generous, if you ask me.

Who is most likely to get in a verbal /physical altercation?

Joakim Noah vs. Reggie Evans

Reggie Evans is probably the only person Joakim Noah should be allowed to call ugly.

Kevin Garnett vs. entire Knicks' roster
It was too hard to just pick one person.

Chris Paul vs. Zach Randolph
This is a wild card pick for me. Chris Paul hates to lose. Randolph loves to talk.

Is this Carmelo's year?
As a current Syracuse University student, I may be somehow contractually obligated to say yes for this question. I just still can't see it. Carmelo Anthony has had the overall best season of his career and had led the Knicks to the two-seed in the East. He won the scoring title for his first time, yet still displayed a style of unselfishness that we hadn't seen before. If it wasn't for LeBron James, Anthony would have been right at the center of the MVP conversation.

That's just it, though. Despite the Knicks' success against the Heat in the regular season, I can't see them getting past Miami in the Conference Finals. New York will have to beat Indiana first, which I think they will, but then they will be forced to stop the defending champs. I think it will be an entertaining series, but Miami is too tough.

Will anyone watch the Hawks/Pacers series?

This series has NBA TV written all over it. Seriously, though, this is a matchup of two pretty good teams, but just has no appeal. People liked the Pacers earlier in the season as a potential upset candidate over the Heat, but their compiled injuries along with their sub-par play over the past few months have obliterated most of those courageous predictions.

The winner of this series will lose to either the Knicks or Celtics in the next round. So for the Hawks/Pacers, I think I'll catch the highlights on SportsCenter.

What will be the exact series results and who will be crowned champion?

Miami over Milwaukee in 4
Brooklyn over Chicago in 6
Indiana over Atlanta in 5
New York over Boston in 7

Oklahoma City over Houston in 5
Los Angeles over Memphis in 7
Denver over Golden State in 6
San Antonio over Los Angeles in 7

Miami over Brooklyn in 6
New York over Indiana in 6

Oklahoma City over Los Angeles in 6
Denver over San Antonio in 7

Miami over New York in 6
Oklahoma City over Denver in 5

Miami over Oklahoma City in 6

Posted by Robert Campbell at 4:37 PM | Comments (0)

April 21, 2013

2013 NFL Mock Draft, Three Rounds of Hell

Round One

1. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan — It's been Luke Joeckel for weeks now, but during the week leading into the draft, it has become evident that KC prefers Fisher's athleticism and his should be the first name called.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M — Another shift that has occurred in the days (and even hours) before the draft is that Jacksonville is now very likely to take the remaining OT of the two highest ranked offensive tackles on the board. OLB Dion Jordan is still a possibility here, but not likely.

3. Detroit Lions (via Oakland) – OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma — The Lions are hot to trot for the third top rated OT, Lane Johnson. Johnson grades out well on paper and it has been reported that review of his tape has left front office personnel feeling really good about his versatility, strength at the point of attack, and attitude. Look for Oakland to recoup the second round pick they lost to Cincy in the Carson Palmer deal by dangling their #3 pick to a team like Detroit who covets an offensive tackle.

4. Philadelphia Eagles – DE/DT Star Lotulelei, Utah — QB Geno Smith is a possibility here, but it just doesn't seem like a smart move for new coach Chip Kelly in his first draft as the Eagles head man. Vick did struggle at times last year (okay, that was generous, he struggled constantly last year), but he is still very popular as a player than you can sense that the Eagles faithful are excited to see their ultra-mobile QB in an offense that suits his frantic style, at least on paper. They also have an adequate backup QB in Nick Foles, though admittedly he isn't nearly the fit for the up-tempo style Kelly promises to bring to town.

But more than those two factors, the availability of similarly mobile quarterbacks later in this draft (such as Florida State's E.J. Manuel, who Philly is reported to love) tells me that reaching for Smith would be a tough sell for the PR department to make. Lotulelei, who has received all the medical clearances he needs to settle those who have him on their radar (Star had a scare at the NFL Combine where tests should an irregularity in his heart, but later tests revealed it was likely caused by dehydration and a virus he was fighting at the time), is a safe pick and a good fit as a five-technique DE in Philly's new 3-4 scheme.

5. Oakland Raiders (via Detroit) – DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida — Floyd has been the guy all along for Oakland, and that they will still get him after trading down a few spots and gaining a second round pick speaks volumes about the new leadership in Oakland.

6. St. Louis Rams (via Cleveland) – WR Tavon Austin — Okay, here is where the draft gets really interesting. Cleveland has been rumored to want to trade out for weeks. They are now being rumored to want to trade up, but I just don't know where they'd get the ammo to do so with their bag of draft picks relatively empty this year. So, I'm going with they will, indeed trade down.

St. Louis, for their part, loves Tavon Austin, along with about 31 other teams. They also don't like Cordarrelle Patterson as much as many previously thought, which makes the WV receiver a real target for them. The Rams have some extra picks to fool around with, so I expect them to trade up to get ahead of Buffalo and the Jets, who both also are known to covet Austin's potential.

7. Arizona Cardinals – OLB Dion Jordan, Oregon — I'll keep this simple: the Cardinals need a pass rusher. Jordan is good at that. No more tackles that would warrant a pick this high remain. Done and done.

8. Buffalo Bills – QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse — Surprised? Don't be. There is strong intel that Nassib could be the first QB off the board, even if Buffalo doesn't pull the trigger on him. But the x-factor for Buffalo is that he can run new OC (and ex-Syracuse coach) Doug Marrone's offense, he has mobility, a strong arm, and smarts. Will he be the next Andrew Luck? Not likely, but what he can be is a 10-year starter on a winning team and bring stability to Buffalo's consistently inconsistent QB play.

9. New York Jets – OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU — The Jets love Mingo, and with Rex Ryan calling the shots this year on defense, you know he'll be pounding the table for an impact player on that side of the ball. Mingo is widely considered one of the two best edge rushers in the draft, and his availability here for the Jets will be tough to ignore.

10. Tennessee Titans – OG Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina — There have been rumblings that the Titans absolutely love Cooper. He is perfectly suited for and experienced in the zone blocking scheme and he has a nasty streak that plays well with offensive linemen. Even with the signing of arguably the best free agent offensive lineman in Andy Levitre — who happens to also play guard — Bruce Matthews and Mike Munchak know a little something about the value of a strong offensive line and with the offensive weapons they already have, shoring up that unit to this level makes good business sense.

11. San Francisco 49ers (via San Diego) – DE Ezekiel Ansah, BYU — San Francisco is pretty much a lead pipe lock to trade up in this draft. While they really could land anywhere, they likely will want to get in the 10-15 neighborhood to have access to whichever is available in a group of Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Ziggy Ansah, and Sheldon Richardson. In this version of my mock, Ansah falls and since SF is one of the few teams that can afford to wait on his mind to catch up to his athletic ability, he makes a lot of sense here.

12. Miami Dolphins – CB Dee Milliner, Alabama — Though his stock is slipping a bit due to some lingering injury concerns, I hear Miami loves Milliner and they will not hesitate to call his name if he's still remaining on the board at #12. Hell, Miami may even be the ones spreading the negative rumors about Dee's health to help make sure he drops!!

13. Atlanta Falcons (via Tampa Bay thru NY Jets) – TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame — The Jets will likely trade back with one (if not both) of their two top 13 picks. I see them trading this one, which they acquired by trading CB Darrelle Revis to the Bucs, to a team from the back end of the draft looking to make a splash (think Baltimore or Atlanta). The Falcons make the bold move to trade much of the early part of their draft to take the successor to Tony Gonzalez.

14. Carolina Panthers – DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri — Richardson going in this spot is one of the few picks that I feel really, really good about. He plays a position of need, is someone that has definitively been on their radar throughout the offseason, and he is a very safe selection for a team that needs to spend some time solidifying the front of their defense.

15. New Orleans Saints – OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia — With WR Cordarrelle Patterson's stock dropping, the Saints may not be able to find a suitable trade partner to get them out of this slot. If they do stay put and draft here, the only two options are really Jones, who offers the rush dimension they currently don't have, and S Kenny Vaccaro, who would help improve the worst passing defense in NFL history. I think Jones is the name they call, but it really could go either way.

16. Cleveland Browns (via St. Louis) – QB Geno Smith, West Virginia — While Cleveland may also be looking defensive back and pass rusher, I just think Geno is too high on their board for them to pass on him, based on everything I've heard. Smith is a solid pick at this point in the draft and the Browns will get their CB help in round two using the pick they gained by sliding back in the trade with St. Louis.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – OG Chance Warmack, Alabama — Warmack is the value play here. The Steelers are so concerned about their guard issues that they floated the idea of moving Pro Bowl C Pouncey into one of those slots. Drafting a player of Warmack's stature and skill makes much better sense.

18. Dallas Cowboys – S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas — It took me a few weeks, but I finally have convinced myself that the Cowboys are not going to trade out of this spot. It is quite clear that they love Vaccaro, so they will most certainly call his name if he is there for them at #18.

19. Minnesota Vikings (NY Giants) – ILB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame — Don't be shocked when this goes down on draft night. The Vikings are very excited about the prospect of bringing Te'o to town due to his natural leadership ability and his instincts. The Chicago Bears are equally jazzed about such an idea, which is why I see the Vikes trading up to get ahead of the Bears in making this pick. One thing to watch: the Bears may trade up to the Cowboys' spots at #18 to ensure that they don't get leapfrogged and get their guy.

20. Chicago Bears – OT D.J. Fluker, Alabama — Popular opinion would be for the Bears to go with Georgia's Alec Ogletree should Manti be gone, but word is the Bears are not even considering Ogletree due to his past indiscretions and his inconsistency on the field. The Bears will continue to make improving their pass rush and pass protection their priorities as they draft Alabama's massive and talented offensive tackle.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee — The Bengals will be tickled to have Patterson fall in their laps. While there are certainly questions about the Tennessee wide out's passion for football, work ethic, and versatility, the fact remains that he is very talented and was very productive at Tennessee against quality defenses. He should help improve a Bengals offense which bogged down at times last year due to its lack of depth.

22. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) – S Matt Elam, Florida — Elam has fallen off many teams' radars in recent weeks. If that had been a result of his tape not showing well or bad interviews, I'd be worried, but it has been more closely tied to attention lesser known prospects like Shamarko Thomas, D.J. Swearinger, and Jonathan Cyprien have been getting. Elam remains as solid a pick at safety as there is in this draft and he plays very similarly to Blaine Bishop, a favorite of head coach Jeff Fisher at Tennessee.

23. Minnesota Vikings – CB D.J. Hayden, Houston — No player has shot up draft boards as quickly in the past two weeks as Hayden. Once the doctor's reports came back clean on Hayden (after a scare last season where a main artery was severed during a collision at practice nearly killed him), his film and raw ability took over. Personally, I think even this is too late for Hayden, who for me, is a top 15 talent.

24. New York Jets (via Indianapolis) – CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State — The Jets now need to add “replacement for Darrelle Revis” to their ever growing list of team needs, and the Florida State CB is a good start at plugging that specific need. Rhodes is great in aggressive, press coverage so he'll be a nice fit in Ryan's defense.

25. New York Giants (via Seattle thru Minnesota) – DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State — Another simple one, the Giants always pick the best available player and Werner is exactly that. Add to that he plays a position that the Giants put a premium on, and this is pretty much a slam dunk.

26. Baltimore Ravens (via Green Bay) – WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson — Baltimore will be looking to draft to fill specific needs, and Hopkins is a solid Anquan Boldin analog. He runs precise routes, can get separation in traffic, and has very good hands, all attributes that Flacco appreciated in Boldin.

27. Philadelphia Eagles (via Houston) – QB E.J. Manuel, Florida State — If you were paying any attention earlier in this article, you will have seen this coming. The Eagles are big Manuel fans and Houston is a team that is likely to drop down a few spots to ensure better value in their first pick.

28. Denver Broncos – DE Tank Carradine, Florida State — Carradine is recovering very well from his injury last season. Had he not been hurt, he would most likely have been a top-15 or even a top-10 selection. He's quick, he's strong, and he knows how to get to the passer and he will help account for the loss of Elvis Dumervil in the Mile High city.

29. New England Patriots – DT Jesse Williams, Alabama — Pat's head man Bill Belichick annually farms intel from his network of coaches in the college ranks, most notably Urban Meyer and Nick Saban. I have no reason to believe that this trend won't continue, and this year's beneficiary will be Williams, a defensive lineman who can play in the five-technique defensive end role, or as an interior tackle in either a three-man or four-man front. The Pats need to find the eventual replacement for the aging, but still productive Vince Wilfork, and Jesse Williams could well be that player.

30. Indianapolis Colts (via Atlanta thru NY Jets) – CB Jamar Taylor, Boise State — The Colts should be drafting a cornerback and Jamar Taylor is a player who is getting a lot of good press of late. Taylor is very fast, a sure tackler, and extremely smart on defense.

31. San Diego Chargers (via San Francisco) – DE Datone Jones, UCLA — Can you say "value pick?" Jones is very talented and plays a need for the Chargers. After trading down this far, San Diego will be very happy to see both Jones and a couple of good offensive tackles to choose from, particularly since the second part of that trade will be the #34 pick early in round two. There is a slight risk that the Packers would draft Jones, so calling his name here makes more sense than waiting and calling for an OT here instead.

32. Green Bay Packers (via Baltimore) – RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama —In the entire 49-year history of the modern NFL draft, there has never been a first round that did not include a running back. While this year is lighter than most in the area of top end running backs, 2013 will not be the year that trend ends. Lacy is the total package and while he doesn't necessarily excel in any one facet, he can run, catch, block, and score touchdowns. As an aside, this pick will result in a whole lot of hand-wringing amongst NFC defensive coordinators.

Round Two

33. Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Matt Barkley, USC

34. San Diego Chargers (via Kansas City thru San Francisco) – WR Justin Pugh, Syracuse

35. Houston Texans – DE Margus Hunt, SMU — I love the idea of this pick for the Texans. Pairing Hunt – a 6'8” defensive end with speed and power – with J.J. Watt would be a ridiculously difficult combo for offensive lineman to deal with. Should Hunt remain on the board at this pick, I just don't know how DC Wade Phillips couldn't talk the powers that be into making this selection.

36. Oakland Raiders (via Detroit Lions) – OLB Alec Ogletree, Georgia

37. Cincinnati Bengals (via Oakland) – ILB Kevin Minter, LSU

38. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Arizona) – OLB Arthur Brown, Kansas State

39. Cleveland Browns – NO PICK — Forfeited by virtue of 2012 Supplemental Draft selection of Josh Gordon.

40. New York Jets – QB Mike Glennon, North Carolina State — Look for the Jets to get their QB in round two, and Glennon is the best remaining option.

41. Minnesota Vikings (via Tennessee) – DT Sylvester Williams

42. Buffalo Bills – WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee

43. Kansas City Chiefs (via Miami) – OLB Jamie Collins — The Chiefs should get this pick by trading OT Branden Albert to the Dolphins.

44. Arizona Cardinals (via Tampa Bay) – OT Menelik Watson, Florida State — Missing out on OTs in round one, the Cardinals will make this a round two priority.

45. Carolina Panthers – WR Keenan Allen, California

46. New Orleans Saint – NO PICK — Forfeited as a penalty for the "Bountygate" scandal.

47. Houston Texans (via San Diego thru Cleveland) – WR Robert Woods, USC

48. Cleveland Browns (via St. Louis) – CB Desmond Trufant, Washington — Cleveland gets their guy to pair with Joe Haden.

49. Miami Dolphins (via Dallas) – TE Zach Ertz, Stanford — Miami trades up to get another valuable target for QB Ryan Tannehill, particularly in the red zone.

50. Pittsburgh Steelers – OLB Damontre Moore, Texas A&M

51. San Francisco 49ers (via NY Giants) – S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International

52. Chicago Bears – ILB Kiko Alonso, Oregon — They don't like him as much as they like Te'o, but they do like him.

53. Washington Redskins – CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi State — Washington's first pick in this draft comes late in round two and should be used to address a secondary that was exposed on multiple occasions last season. Banks is a good, aggressive corner with a nose for the ball.

54. Tennessee Titans (via Minnesota) – DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State

55. Cincinnati Bengals – RB Giovani Bernard, North Carolina

56. Dallas Cowboys (via Indianapolis thru Miami) – OT Terron Armstead, Arkansas Pine Bluff

57. Green Bay Packers – OG/C Brian Schwenke, California

58. Seattle Seahawks – DE Sam Montgomery, LSU — The Seahawks make a value pick with their first selection of the '13 draft. Montgomery was once considered a solid first round talent, but his stock has stayed steady during the offseason while other players saw considerable bumps, dropping him down most teams' draft boards.

59. San Diego Chargers (via Houston) – WR Terrance Williams, Baylor — QB Phillip Rivers gets a new target, something he sorely needs.

60. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Denver) – OLB Khaseem Greene, Rutgers

61. Baltimore Ravens (via New England) – S Eric Reid, LSU

62. New York Jets (via Atlanta) – TE Gavin Escobar, San Diego State

63. New York Giants (via San Francisco) – OT David Bakhtiari, Colorado — The word is the Giants love the Colorado offensive lineman.

64. New England Patriots (via Baltimore) – CB Tyrann Mathieu, LSU — The Patriots make a lot of sense for the troubled but super talented defensive back.

Round Three

65. Arizona Cardinals (via Kansas City) – QB Matt Scott, Arizona

66. Denver Broncos (via Jacksonville) – S Shamarko Thomas, Syracuse

67. Detroit Lions – DE Alex Okafor, Texas

68. New York Giants (via Oakland) – CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Connecticut

69. Philadelphia Eagles – OT/OG Kyle Long, Oregon

70. Cleveland Browns – OG/OC Barrett Jones, Alabama — A significant injury hurts his value, but Jones is a stud and could start immediately for the Browns.

71. Kansas City Chiefs (via Arizona) – NT Jonathan Jenkins, Georgia

72. Tennessee Titans – WR Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech

73. Buffalo Bills – OLB Michael Buchanan, Illinois

74. New York Jets – RB Jonathan Franklin, UCLA

75. Cincinnati Bengals (via Tampa Bay) – C Travis Frederick, Wisconsin

76. San Francisco 49ers (via Carolina) – TE Vance McDonald, Rice — The Niners will want to get some depth at TE with the departure of hybrid TE/FB Delanie Walker. McDonald is one of those "best kept draft secrets" kind of guys and will can play the H-back position Walker excelled at.

77. Seattle Seahawks (New Orleans) – TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati

78. San Diego Chargers – ILB Kevin Reddick, North Carolina

79. Miami Dolphins – RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina — After a gruesome leg injury temporarily derailed his dream, the Dolphins will give Lattimore every opportunity to show the league he's back and as good as ever.

80. Cleveland Browns (via St. Louis) – WR Stedman Bailey, West Virginia — Why not draft your new QB one of his favorite receivers?

81. QB Tyler Bray, Tennessee — Pittsburgh should be looking for a backup and long term replacement for Ben Roethlisberger, and they have gone on record in saying they believe Bray offers as much upside as any QB in this draft.

82. Arizona Cardinals (via Dallas) – ILB Jon Bostic, Florida

83. Oakland Raiders (via NY Giants) – CB B.W. Webb, William & Mary

84. Miami Dolphins (via Chicago) – DT Kawann Short, Purdue

85. Pittsburgh Steelers (via Minnesota thru Tennessee) – RB Knile Davis, Arkansas

86. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Cincinnati) – WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon State

87. Washington Redskins – S D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina — Mike Shanahan is said to be very high on the playmaking safety.

88. Indianapolis Colts – RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford — Another ex-Cardinal will provide additional familiarity to franchise QB Andrew Luck.

89. New Orleans Saints (via Seattle) – OT Brennan Williams, North Carolina

90. Kansas City Chiefs (via Green Bay) – QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma

91. San Diego Chargers (via Houston) – OLB Corey Lemonier, Auburn

92. Denver Broncos – RB Le'Veon Bell, Michigan State — Bell will bring some tough inside running ability to team that lacked that with any consistency last season.

93. New England Patriots – OLB Sio Moore, Connecticut

94. Atlanta Falcons – CB Tharold Simon, LSU

95. New York Giants (via San Francisco via Indianapolis) – OLB Zavier Gooden, Missouri — The Giants have had a need at LB for several seasons.

96. Green Bay Packers (via Baltimore thru NY Giants) – OT David Quessenberry, San Jose State

97. Houston Texans (Compensatory Pick) – TE Jordan Reed, Florida

98. Kansas City Chiefs (Compensatory Pick) – RB Kenjon Barner, Oregon

99. Tennessee Titans (Compensatory Pick) – CB Jordan Poyer, Oregon State — The last player projected in my three-round mock is an underrated defensive back who tackles well.

Posted by Matt Thomas at 9:43 PM | Comments (0)

April 18, 2013

Pat Summerall, 1930-2013

I don't adore too many "celebrities," even among pro athletes. Sure, I like plenty of them, in kind of a passive way, but nothing more than that.

So of the rarified ranks of the famous that can say I have more than a vague admiration for them in my life, only four have passed away. In 2005, Hunter S. Thompson, my all-time favorite writer, died. Then, a little over a month later, Mitch Hedberg, my all-time favorite stand-up comedian, also passed away.

Then, this past month, Roger Ebert, my all-time favorite humanist, died. Not even two weeks later, Pat Summerall, my all-time favorite announcer, was next to pass on.

It comes in twos, it comes in twos.

Pat Summerall was the voice of football during my childhood, more than any other broadcasting luminary you can name. He was, simply put, the best play-by-play man I have ever heard. He was understated. He got out of the way of both the action and his color man, usually John Madden. Some announcers do enthusiasm well (Gus Johnson), but if you're going to suck, suck with understatement, not bombast.

There are several fascinating aspects to Summerall's story. He didn't start off doing play-by-play. After he retired from the NFL, where he was an accomplished kicker, he followed the formula still used today: ex-players do color. Sports nerds like me who never played competitively beyond high school do play-by-play.

But in 1974, someone at CBS made the very canny and astute move of moving Summerall to play-by-play. All he would do with that is become the standard by which all announcers would be judged over the next 30 years. He became the best at communicating without any sort of formal training.

Very, very few pro athletes go on to do play-by-play. I'm sure there are more, but I can only think of two, both in baseball: Ken "Hawk" Harrelson, who if I could fire any one announcer in the country, it would be him, and Buck Martinez, who did color commentary on MLB Network for the World Baseball Classic, and then switched to his normal play-by-play once his main gig, covering the Toronto Blue Jays, began. I'll give Martinez some props, he's pretty good.

The man who replaced Summerall as FOX's main NFL play-by-play announcer is Joe Buck. Buck emulates Summerall's staid demeanor. It's just that he comes across as smug, whereas Summerall seemed humble. Also, Buck can be a bit of a prude and a moralizer.. Also (unconvincing backpedal notwithstanding),he'd rather watch "The Bachelor" than most sports. Also, I really, really just hate his work. Cannot stand it.

I think Summerall would've checked out earlier if faced with the prospect of having to watch "The Bachelor" rather than sports. Buck only covers baseball and football for FOX, and for some reason he hasn't started up again calling baseball for FOX again this season.

Summerall, by contrast, covered play-by-play for CBS in golf, tennis, and basketball. And as far as football goes, he kept working just as long as someone was interested in hearing him.

It was bittersweet hearing him his last few years at FOX. As he advanced in age, mistakes became more frequent, which John Madden would gently correct. He semi-retired in 2002, agreeing to cover games for FOX closer to his home in Dallas (naturally, this meant a lot of Cowboys games), working with Brian Baldinger. After a year of that, his retirement became more substantial, but he continued to do play-by-play on a sort of substitute teacher basis for FOX and ESPN until 2007, and handled play-by-play for the Cotton Bowl all the way until 2010.

I got the impression that he never truly wanted to absolutely, completely retire, which is why he kept showing up as a replacement for occasional broadcasts, as well as the Cotton Bowl.

His age may have showed in these broadcasts, but I would be thrilled to hear him for another five years even if he got every player and team name wrong. An era has passed and a staple of my childhood. RIP.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 2:33 PM | Comments (0)

Golf's "Snitches Get Stitches" Policy

Last week's Masters in Augusta was notable for crowning its first Australian champion, Adam Scott, who did with one putt what it took decades for blacks and women to do. But the Masters really opened its doors by allowing a television viewer to report a rules violation which, in part, resulted in a two-stroke penalty for Tiger Woods.

The rat bastard. Television viewers who notice a rules violation and call to report it are the scum of the earth. They are the Westboro Baptist Church of sports fans.

Pity poor Woods. Just when you thought Tiger could keep his sexual activity private, he gets publicly screwed on national television by a viewer at home. Luckily, main squeeze Lindsey Vonn was there to be hot and bothered with Tiger.

Golf is a game of honor, yet there is no honor in ratting out a golfer who likely doesn't even know he/she committed an infraction.

It's one thing for a golf fan to watch a tournament and actually recognize a rules infraction. 99% of viewers wouldn't recognize and infraction. It's another thing to recognize an infraction, and feel the need to call a network or golf course and report it. In grade school half a century ago, there was a name for people who did this — tattletales. In grade school in current times, there's a name for people who do this — bitches. What rhymes with "bitches?" "Snitches." And what do snitches get? Stitches.

That's why it's time for the game of golf to break tradition and institute a "Snitches Get Stitches" policy to rules violations. This would apply to viewers, spectators, and fellow golfers, but not to course officials, who are there to make rulings so some couch potato with a handicap, as well as body mass index, in the 40s, doesn't have to.

For too long, the sheltered game of golf and ghetto retribution have existed in two far different worlds, never crossing paths. The "Snitches Get Stitches" policy will change that.

How would it work? Simple. Anyone, besides a licensed official, that tries to report a violation will get shanked with a golf tee (Of course, the term "making the cut" will require further explanation), beaten with a nine iron by Elin Nordegren, or given a haircut of John Daly's choosing. Repeat offenders will be forced to spend 24 hours listening to Johnny Miller talk.

Will the "Snitches Get Stitches" program work in the sport of professional golf? Maybe. Maybe not. But it will certainly deter the kind of cowardice it takes to report a rules violation from hundreds of miles away.

In what other sport can a spectator impact an official ruling? None whatsoever. If basketball fans called the NBA every time they witnessed a missed call, then David Stern would soon announce a new franchise coming to India, but not before opening a call center to handle the deluge of phone calls. And, if fans were allowed to report violations on players, then the league would have a bigger problem on its hands — even more NBA players would have guns. Plus, this increases the possibility of Meta World Peace attacking a fan — in that fan's home.

And Major League Baseball? If MLB offices can't handle the number of calls, they should urge viewers to call only when an umpire makes the right call.

What about the NFL? The last thing Roger Goodell needs is fans complaining about rules; he has enough former and current players handling that already.

Golf has a problem, and that problem is, unlike other sports, they allow persons besides officials to often affect the outcome where penalizing rules violations are concerned. Golf needs to take action to put the "honor" back in an "honorable" game.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:22 PM | Comments (0)

April 17, 2013

Is Now the Time for the Nuggets' Gold Rush?

Going into this year's NBA playoffs, there seems to be less intrigue than there usually is at this time of year. For the 2012-13 season, where the only real inclusion and seeding question for weeks, and possibly months, is if and where the high-profile, disappointing Lakers would get into the playoffs.

Think of all the questions we usually ask leading into the playoffs? The favorite? It's obviously the team with the best player in a generation that recently won 27 games in a row and is somehow entering the postseason on another tear, despite its best players often sitting out the past couple weeks. Who's supposed to meet them in the finals? The same team the champs beat in the finals last year.

We could take this example even further into the NBA playoff bracket. After New York's recent 13-game winning streak and 15 of 16 run, along with Indiana's offensive struggles and injury woes, the Knicks are a strong favorite to meet the Heat for the Eastern Conference title. In the West, San Antonio is primed for a rematch with Oklahoma City after the Thunder ended the Spurs' unbelievable season a year ago.

But what about the team that has been nearly as unstoppable as the Heat since the All-Star Break, features a dynamic offense and has been untouchable at home? Denver not only has every opportunity to break up the Interstate 35 series in the West, but to take the conference crown.

Since the All-Star Break, the Nuggets have gone 23-4. The vaunted Heat have lost just two fewer games in that period. The Nuggets' previous 15-game winning streak was almost completely forgotten because it roughly coincided with Miami's historic run. But even more impressive than that is Denver's current 23-game home winning streak.

Now, it's not uncommon for Denver teams to rack up gaudy home records, simply due to the constraints on athletes at high altitudes. But to go over half your home schedule without a loss, while being in the tougher conference, is even more amazing than the 2009 Cleveland team that went 39-2 at home. It also means that Denver effectively starts every playoff series with 2.5 to 3 wins.

Throughout the George Karl era in Denver, the Nuggets have been known as a free-wheeling, all-offense, defense-optional club. In the playoffs, when situations get tougher, defenses buckle down and possessions inevitably get shorter, Karl's Denver teams have bitten the dust. Only once in eight (nine if you include the season when Karl sat out the playoffs while undergoing cancer treatment) playoff appearances with the Nuggets has Karl gotten out of the first round.

However, this year stands to be different as the Nuggets are backing up great offense with above-average defense. Denver ranks 11th in the league in defense, giving up 105.2 points per 100 possessions. An enormous reason for that is the offseason acquisition of Andre Iguodala.

It's easy to forget that Iguodala came to Denver as part of the Orlando/Los Angeles-Philadelphia mega-deal that saw Dwight Howard go to the Lakers and Andrew Bynum "join" the Sixers. But somehow, in giving up the least of any team in the deal, Denver might have "won" that trade, at least for 2012-13. The man also known as "Iggy" hasn't delivered the offensive impact that he perhaps could on a team with less pure talent and offensive skill (although his recent scoring outbursts in the past two weeks would beg to differ), but his defensive weight has been substantive. When Iguodala is on the court, the Nuggets are a full 5.1 points per 100 possessions better than when he's off the court.

This season has also seen the emergence of Ty Lawson as a tremendous option in the clutch. The former North Carolina star has emerged as the Nuggets' go-to guy on a team that doesn't have a traditional superstar, and would therefore usually be viewed as a very unlikely title contender. The storyline of "can the Nuggets overcome their 'superstar' problem?" will undoubtedly be one to watch should Denver prove itself as a title challenger.

The Nuggets do have injury issues to overcome, namely the loss of second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari to an ACL injury. However, Wilson Chandler has the skill set and talent necessary to take Gallinari's minutes. Thus far, after Gallinari's injury, Chandler has been averaging 20 ppg, over 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three-point range, and 80 percent from the line. Kenneth Faried, or "The Manimal," was hurt on Sunday against Portland, and will come back for the playoffs. It remains to be seen how much the injury will affect the energetic power forward.

To surpass their expectations given to their likely playoff seed in the West of No. 3, the Nuggets will have to get past San Antonio. While the ageless Tim Duncan has been beyond amazing in his 16th season, Tony Parker is still hobbled and Manu Ginobili has battled injuries all season long and can't be expected to be himself when he effectively returns for the playoffs. In a potential series, San Antonio may need bigger outputs from players like Tiago Splitter and Kawhi Leonard. And now, since the Spurs signed Tracy McGrady to a playoff's eve contract, they may have trouble getting out of the first round.

Of course, assuming a playoff matchup with the Spurs assumes that the Nuggets will keep the No. 3 seed and that Denver will advance. As of press time, it appears as if the first round will be against either the Warriors or the Rockets, both of which would be must-see basketball, if nothing else than for the up-tempo fireworks.

The 2013 NBA playoffs appear to be a by-the-book affair, with the conference finals as nearly premeditated matchups, based on the balance of the season. However, the on-fire Nuggets may have a lot to say about that inevitably.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 7:58 PM | Comments (0)

April 16, 2013

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 7

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson took sixth in the NRA 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on Saturday night and held on to the lead in the Sprint Cup point standings. He leads Brad Keselowski by 9 points.

"I think leaving Texas with the points lead is important," Johnson said, "and a good sign that I'll win my sixth Sprint Cup championship. Just call me 'number 1 with a bullet.'"

2. Kyle Busch — Busch completed the sweep at Texas, following his Friday Nationwide win with a Saturday triumph in the NRA 500. Busch beat Martin Truex, Jr. out of the pits on the race's final caution and led the final 16 laps.

"I led 171 laps on Saturday night," Busch said, "or as they're called at Texas Motor Speedway, 'rounds.'

"With Denny Hamlin out with a back injury, and Matt Kenseth his typical hum-drum self, Joe Gibbs Racing is truly in a Lone Star 'state.'"

3. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished ninth in the NRA 500 after scrambling to change the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge's rear-end housing, which NASCAR had deemed illegal. After the race, Keselowski lashed out at NASCAR, claiming his team had been unfairly targeted in the garage area.

"NASCAR can kiss my rear-end housing," Keselowski said. "I apologize for my rant, but what better place than the NRA 500 to go ballistic on NASCAR. And what better place for NASCAR to wield its itchy trigger finger when it comes to accessing inspections?"

4. Kasey Kahne — Kahne just missed his fifth top-10 finish of the year with an 11th in the NRA 500. He is seventh in the point standings, 37 out of first.

"I'm not sure the NRA will be back as a sponsor for a race," Kahne said. "But Mark Martin's got a plan. Since he's real tight with the rap community, he thinks there should be the 'NWA 500.' Of course, that's pending NASCAR approval, as well as the construction of a track in Compton, California."

5. Joey Logano — Logano nearly missed the start of Saturday's race, arriving late to the grid after a NASCAR inspection forced the No. 22 team to change the car's rear-end housing. After starting at the back of the field, Logano worked his way to a fifth-place finish, and moved up two places to ninth in the point standings.

"Starting at the back of the field?" Logano said. "That's the real 'rear-end housing.'

"Luckily, though, the lengthy inspection process afforded me ample time to catch up on some reading, particularly some dated copies of Denny Hamlin Magazine. They're called 'back issues.'"

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished 15th in the NRA 500, as Michael Waltrip Racing teammate Martin Truex, Jr. took the runner-up spot. Bowyer remained eighth in the point standings, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 61.

"I support the 2nd Amendment," Bowyer said. "And I also support the '5th' Amendment — 5-Hour Energy shots for everyone!"

7. Greg Biffle — A strong run at Texas for Roush Fenway Racing saw Biffle finish fourth, one spot behind teammate Carl Edwards. Biffle is now fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 30 out of first.

"Did someone at Hendrick Motorsports rat out Penske Racing?" Biffle said. "Conspiracy theories abound, with many saying someone at Hendrick pointed NASCAR in the direction of the Penske car's rear housings. And when Rick Hendrick says 'jump,' NASCAR asks the same thing as they do of the height of Penske rear housings — 'how high?'"

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt lost battery power while running third on Saturday night, but didn't realize it was a battery issue until later. Instead of switching to backup power, Earnhardt pitted, and after an unfortunate series of events, Earnhardt was penalized twice. He finished 29th, four laps down.

"Luckily," Earnhardt said, "I only shot myself in the foot. Unfortunately, I thought the problem was something else, and not the battery. That's called 'getting jumped' to a conclusion."

9. Carl Edwards — Edwards posted his fourth top-five result of the season with a third in the NRA 500. He improved two places to fifth in the point standings, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 35.

"I felt right at home at TMS," Edwards said. "As NASCAR's resident fitness freak, I feel quite comfortable showing my 'guns.' And what about these super fans here in Texas, all decked out in their sleeveless shirts. Obviously, they support the right to bare arms."

10. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 12th at Texas as Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch won from the pole. Kenseth is now 11th in the point standings, 65 out of first.

"We had a mishap in the pits in which a crew member's foot caught fire," Kenseth said. "God bless his sole, we extinguished it before any damage was done."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:43 AM | Comments (0)

April 15, 2013

MLB Should Consolidate the Leagues

Now that Major League Baseball has balanced the American and National Leagues and created a schedule with more interleague games throughout a larger portion of the schedule, maybe the time has come to consider unifying the two leagues. To baseball purists, interleague play was an abomination to the game and watered down the significance of the World Series; now that interleague play is more prevalent and a constant on the schedule, "The Bigs" might as well take the plunge and do what every other major sports league in the U.S. has done and put the leagues together. The result could be a more interesting World Series and the creation of great rivalries never before possible.

What I mean by that is to do away with the separation of leagues through making the rules consistent — most notably either dropping the designated hitter rule or adopting it in both leagues — and making the schedules reflective of a unified league. Now, granted, two of the four major team sports leagues absorbed a handful of teams from a failed rival league (NBA/ABA and NHL/WHL), but football proved that merging two leagues into one, creating an objective schedule and adopting consistent rules helped strengthen the brand and become the most popular sport in the country. When the NFL and AFL agreed to merge for the 1970 season, it was the best move that both leagues could make to bring stability to the sport and heighten its popularity, eventually exalting it above even America's Pastime.

Imagine what the possibilities could be if Major League Baseball decided to drop its two-league system, make the rules consistent, and schedule more games between them. I'm not talking about radically changing the structure of the league, but rather simply putting the two together for consistency sake. And, since most of what the two leagues do is in concert anyway, like the draft, trades, and free agency, a couple minor tweaks are all that's needed to make this a reality.

Of course, the first difference to be hashed out would be whether to keep the designated hitter rule or not. I was surprised to learn several years ago that the DH rule was adopted by MLB as an organization, but that use of the rule was left up to the individual leagues. The American League decided to give it a go for one year, while the National League wanted to keep tradition. After a season of more offense and exciting games with that extra hitter added to the lineup, the AL kept the DH, but the NL stayed the course of baseball purity.

Most old-school fans claim that having the DH eliminates much of the late-game strategy used when a pitcher is in the batting order, such as the double-switch and careful use of pinch hitters. After all, baseball is a thinking man's game and much of the chess-like intellect managers need is taken away by the DH; but most casual fans like offense, and if one more pure hitter is in the lineup with the ability to hit home runs, then they're all for that. I mean, who wants to see a pitcher come to the plate every couple of innings only to strike out, hit a weak ground ball, or sacrifice?

However, in this day and age of specialists, having pitchers who exclusively pitch across the board would be in keeping with the current sports environment. I mean, in football defensive tackles no longer do double-duty as kickers and quarterbacks don't line up in the secondary on defense anymore. So why should baseball pitchers be expected to bat, especially past the high school level?

A second issue to consider is how to make the schedule more attractive with additional games against the other league, or conference as it probably would be with consolidation. In the other leagues, more games are played against division rivals than the other teams even within its own conference. Currently, MLB teams play 17 interleague games, which is just over 10 percent of the schedule. Maybe that number could be doubled or even higher, not only to give several cities the opportunity to see storied franchises like the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers, but to give the World Series a little more flair.

A good starting point could be a quick three-game series with every team in the other league, which would amount to 45 games. The home-away factor could be as simple as all home against one or two divisions and all away against the other (or two) division. The rest of the schedule could be filled by teams from outside the division. It could get complicated, but it could also be done.

The final point involves the Fall Classic and how home field advantage is determined. If the two leagues were consolidated into one organization, then World Series home field advantage could be decided solely off of regular season records. The ridiculous rule of having the All-Star Game winner determine who would host a Game 7 if it came to that would no longer be necessary.

Imagine if David Stern or Gary Bettman came to the conclusion that the conference that wins their respective all-star games would get home court/ice advantage in the playoffs. Something like that would not make sense simply because the schedules reflect a more objective record than it would if the two conferences were completely separated, or even if they played a limited number of games against each other. Because of that, a team in the NBA that wins 60 games is a legitimately good team because it has been tested against every team in the league. If baseball were to adopt the same type of schedule, then the team with the better regular season record could be granted home field advantage in the postseason.

Baseball has the longest and richest history of any team sport in America, but Commissioner Bud Selig has not been afraid to tinker with tradition and bring new ideas to the table to make the National Pastime more attractive to casual sports fans. Doing something as unorthodox as unifying the two leagues, creating consistency within the rules and having teams play a schedule that involves every other team (or at least a majority of teams) in the opposite league would not only cement his legacy as a visionary leader, but also possibly detract from the black eyes that MLB has suffered in recent years.

So, could there ever be the possibility of MLB proposing a unified organization with consistent rules and a more objective schedule? If enough fans jump on the bandwagon and get the owners to see the potential benefits of such a change, it most certainly could be possible. Need an example? Hello, Division 1 college football playoffs!

Posted by Adam Russell at 12:41 PM | Comments (0)

UFC is Sports' Most Progressive League

The weekend before last featured mixed martial arts cards from Bellator, Invicta, ONE FC, and the UFC. I didn't catch ONE FC, but I'd say Invicta was the best of the other three, and not for lack of competition. Sarah Kaufman and Leslie Smith put on a show, but they were upstaged first by the brutal return of Cris Cyborg, and then by the sensational atomweight title fight between Michelle Waterson and Jessica Penne.

I was discussing this with a friend recently: in men's fights, the less-skilled competitors are often more fun to watch. In women's MMA, the opposite is true: the top women invariably entertain, and the lower level always seem to disappoint. The top men often fight defensively, whereas the weaker men have holes in their games that facilitate knockouts and submissions and exciting back-and-forth contests. The top women have amazing ground games and at least some level of striking. Some of the women on an Invicta undercard look like they've never taken a striking lesson.

The UFC is the Most Progressive League in Sports

Every major professional sports league tries to foster a basic progressive image. They sells jerseys targeted at women, they hold "___ Fan Night" to attract specific groups, they publicize charity initiatives, and they fine or suspend players for insensitive remarks. It's not my intention to demean any of that, but an oft-marginalized organization — one that is still (incorrectly) cited as an example of the uncultured element in sports — is doing better than any of the Big Three leagues in North America.

Just in the last six weeks, the Ultimate Fighting Championship has:

* Headlined a card full of male fighters with a women's match
* Announced that women will coach men on "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show
* Suspended a fighter for transphobic comments
* Awarded a Fight of the Night bonus to women

If you're going to have women in your organization, you need to promote their matches, and Ronda Rousey is a particularly marketable star: attractive and articulate, with exceptional talent to back it up. Nonetheless, it says something that the UFC featured Rousey and Liz Carmouche rather than male stars like Urijah Faber, Dan Henderson, or Lyoto Machida. This past Sunday, Cat Zingano and Miesha Tate deservedly won the $50,000 Fight of the Night bonus over a card full of male fighters. It was a great fight and probably an easy decision, but the simple fact that women aren't being treated differently merits some positive notice.

More significantly, though, Zingano's victory earned her a coaching spot opposite Rousey on the UFC's flagship Ultimate Fighter reality show. The two women will coach both female and male fighters, and I believe that's unprecedented in a major sports league. For years, I wondered what would happen if Pat Summitt, the legendary women's basketball coach at the University of Tennessee, coached men. I doubt she was ever interested, but I bet that she could have done well — and I suspect there would have been huge opposition to the idea of a woman teaching men. I think a co-ed Ultimate Fighter is a bad idea, but not because I don't believe Rousey and Zingano can coach men effectively, and I credit the UFC for assuming they'll be up to it.

Perhaps most notably, the UFC suspended heavyweight Matt Mitrione just days after an impressive victory, because he went on a horrific rant against transgender fighter Fallon Fox (who is not signed to the UFC). The organization promptly suspended Mitrione and released a statement that read, in part, "The UFC was appalled by the transphobic comments made by heavyweight Matt Mitrione ... The UFC is a friend and ally of the LGBT community, and expects and requires all 450 of its athletes to treat others with dignity and respect."

When athletes say things they shouldn't, you expect a grudging apology from the offending party and an obligatory slap on the wrist from the organization. The UFC acted promptly with an indefinite suspension and probably the best statement to the press I've seen in more than a decade covering sports. Do you think the NBA would use the term transphobic? Would the NFL go out of its way to identify itself as "a friend and ally of the LGBT community?"

Even many sports fans, stuck 20 years in the past, still identify the UFC with a meathead culture (Meathead, incidentally, really is Mitrione's nickname), but baselessly. The UFC is among the most progressive and forward-thinking sports organizations in North America.

April 2013 UFC Rankings

The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Pat Curran or Bibiano Fernandes on these lists. These rankings do not count as part of the UFC's official rankings.

Heavyweight (206-265 lbs)

1. Cain Velasquez
2. Junior Dos Santos
3. Fabricio Werdum
4. Daniel Cormier
5. Antonio Silva
6. Alistair Overeem
7. Frank Mir
8. Mark Hunt
9. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
10. Roy Nelson

Make it Happen: Josh Barnett in the UFC

Barnett has been coy about the details that are holding up his deal with Zuffa, and Dana White has yet to go on a profanity-laced tirade about Barnett's demands. But it's hard to understand how this isn't the best direction for both parties. The UFC wants the best fighters in the world, and Barnett presumably wants to prove he's still one of them.

Thank You, UFC, For: Cormier vs. Mir

This fight was planned once before, in Strikeforce, and scratched because of an injury. It's still a good matchup, and an intriguing UFC debut for Cormier.

Light Heavyweight (186-205)

1. Jon Jones
2. Lyoto Machida
3. Dan Henderson
4. Alexander Gustafsson
5. Mauricio Rua
6. Chael Sonnen
7. Glover Texeira
8. Rashad Evans
9. Phil Davis
10. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Make it Happen: Gustafsson vs. Gegard Mousasi

Their fight last week was scrapped after Gustafsson suffered a cut in training and wasn't cleared to compete. But if Mousasi's knee injury permits him to fight on the same timetable as Gustafsson — and it's not clear that it will — this matchup still makes sense.

Thank You, UFC, For: Henderson vs. Evans

So evenly matched that the fight odds are Pick 'Em: there is no favorite. The winner is a title contender; the loser may drop to middleweight.

Middleweight (171-185)

1. Anderson Silva
2. Chris Weidman
3. Vitor Belfort
4. Michael Bisping
5. Yushin Okami
6. Luke Rockhold
7. Alan Belcher
8. Jacare Souza
9. Costa Philippou
10. Mark Muñoz

Make it Happen: winner of Belfort-Rockhold vs. winner of Philippou-Souza

The winners should match off in a top contender's bout. Rockhold was the last middleweight champion in Strikeforce, and Jacare is 3-0 since losing the title to him, all wins by stoppage. Philippou has won five in a row. Belfort fought for the belt in February 2011. Since then, he's 3-0 at middleweight, and even gave Jon Jones a scare at 205. If he rattles off consecutive wins against Bisping, Rockhold, and the winner of Philippou-Souza, he's earned another shot at the champ.

It will be interesting to see who the UFC books to fight Uriah Hall in the wake of his upset loss on the TUF finale. May I suggest someone like C.B. Dollaway or Tom Lawlor?

Welterweight (156-170)

1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Johny Hendricks
3. Carlos Condit
4. Nick Diaz
5. Rory MacDonald
6. Demian Maia
7. Martin Kampmann
8. Jake Ellenberger
9. Tarec Saffiedine
10. Josh Koscheck

In the official rankings, Ellenberger is three slots ahead of Kampmann, who knocked him out less than a year ago. Since then, Ellenberger's beaten one guy who's out of the UFC (Jay Hieron) and another (Nate Marquardt) who's 2-2 at welterweight; Kampmann lost to Hendricks. Did Ellenberger move ahead just because he was fighting easier opponents?

Make it Happen: Condit vs. Maia

This won't last three rounds. Either Condit will score a knockout, or he'll get submitted. Maia has shown surprisingly effective takedowns, and that's the hole in Condit's game. Maia looks great at 170, and he deserves to face a top-level opponent.

Thank You, UFC, For: MacDonald vs. Ellenberger

If Ellenberger is for real, he can certainly prove it by beating MacDonald. The winner of this will probably get a title shot if Georges St-Pierre stays at 170.

Lightweight (146-155)

1. Ben Henderson
2. Anthony Pettis
3. Gray Maynard
4. Gilbert Melendez
5. Nate Diaz
6. Jim Miller
7. Donald Cerrone
8. Joe Lauzon
9. T.J. Grant
10. Jamie Varner

I know Pettis is dropping to 145 to fight Jose Aldo, but I already have enough lightweights ranked at 145, and it's not clear where Pettis' future is. Otherwise, Rafael dos Anjos would round out the top 10.

Make it Happen: Varner vs. Diego Sanchez

Sanchez recently tweeted out a mostly unrealistic wish list of opponents. Varner was fourth, though, and I could go with that.

Thank You, UFC, For: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham

Both are on the border of the top 10, and this fight should push one clearly into contention.

Featherweight (136-145)

1. Jose Aldo
2. Frankie Edgar
3. Ricardo Lamas
4. Chan Sung Jung
5. Chad Mendes
6. Cub Swanson
7. Erik Koch
8. Dustin Poirier
9. Dennis Siver
10. Clay Guida

Make it Happen: Diego Brandao vs. Conor McGregor

Two young prospects on the way up. They both fought a week ago in Sweden, so the timing should work out for a meeting in Boston later this year.

Thank You, UFC, For: Lamas vs. Jung

Obvious title-eliminator. Any other booking, for either fighter, would have been bad match-making.

Bantamweight (126-135)

1. Renan Barão
2. Michael McDonald
3. Urijah Faber
4. Eddie Wineland
5. Brad Pickett
6. Raphael Assunçao
7. Brian Bowles
8. Scott Jorgensen
9. Mike Easton
10. T.J. Dillashaw

Dominick Cruz hasn't fought in almost a year and a half, and he's not yet scheduled to return. When he does, he'll obviously be at or near the top of this list.

Make it Happen: a new opponent for Bowles

A former champion who has only lost to Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber is scheduled to fight George Roop? Is this one of those letting-it-go-on-too-long April Fools jokes like Wanderlei Silva pulled?

Thank You, UFC, For: Barão vs. Wineland

It will be a while before Cruz is ready, and Renan Barao has to fight someone. He's already beaten McDonald and Faber.

Flyweight (116-125) and Women's Bantamweight (126-135)

I'm not ranking these divisions until they have more fighters.

UFC on FOX 7 and UFC 159

There are two big UFC cards before the end of the month. UFC on FOX 7 features nine ranked fighters, plus T.J. Dillashaw vs. Hugo Viana, and a significant welterweight matchup between Jordan Mein and Matt Brown.

In the headlining match, former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez challenges Benson Henderson for the lightweight title. Melendez (+215) is a good fighter with no obvious weaknesses, but I believe Henderson (-260) is a little better in every facet of his game. A number of other Strikeforce transplants appear on the card, including Heavyweight Grand Prix winner Daniel Cormier, who faces Frank Mir. I suspect Joe Silva quietly hopes that Mir (+320) wins an upset, because Cormier, Fabricio Werdum, and the winner of Junior Dos Santos-Mark Hunt are all positioned for title shots, and the match-making gets a little easier if Cormier (-400) drops out of the picture. Cormier is a heavy favorite for a reason, but if you're betting on the fight, I don't think he's worth 4:1 odds.

Elsewhere on the card, I predict Nate Diaz will defeat Josh Thomson, Chad Mendes will lie on top of Darren Elkins for 15 minutes, and Joseph Benavidez will outclass Darren Uyenoyama.

The following week's pay-per-view features a lopsided light heavyweight title fight between reigning champion Jon Jones (-825) and self-proclaimed middleweight "silver medalist" Chael Sonnen (+655). Those odds seem about right to me. Sonnen's only obvious path to victory is a five-round decision, whereas Jones can finish the fight in an instant. I'm sure Sonnen will put up a fight, but he won't be able to outmuscle and outwrestle Jones the way he did to Anderson Silva.

The other main-card bouts also feature clear, though less dramatic, favorites: Michael Bisping over Alan Belcher, Roy Nelson ahead of Cheick Kongo, Phil Davis over Vinny Magalhaes, and longtime UFC standout Jim Miller favored against Strikeforce refugee Pat Healy. Not to be boring, but I like all the favorites.

UFC 159 also features two fights that should be of major interest to serious fans: Sara McMann vs. Sheila Gaff and Leonard Garcia vs. Cody McKenzie. Gaff has been fighting for years, but McMann is riding a wave of hype; people have already talked about her as a threat to Ronda Rousey. An Olympic silver medalist (wrestling), McMann is 6-0 in MMA. Garcia and McKenzie are nowhere near title contention, but both are entertaining fighters who always put on a show. If you find anyone offering a prop bet that McKenzie wins by guillotine, I'll take it.

Boring main-card parlay: Jones + Bisping + Davis. That's only a +140 return, and I'm a little nervous about Davis, but the risk level is low. If you're not terrified by four-fight parlays, you could add Jim Miller to the mix. Odds haven't been released yet for his matchup with Healy, but I suspect he'll be in the neighborhood of -250. That would yield a win of about $240 on a $100 bet.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:46 AM | Comments (0)

April 13, 2013

Foul Territory: Big Mouths and Big Shots

* Vote Now For the (Adder)All-Pro Team — Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said that "half the league" takes Adderall, a stimulant that contains amphetamine. Last year, Sherman successfully fought a suspension for violating the NFL's policy against performance-enhancing drugs. It's easy to believe Sherman accidentally took Adderall; when your mouth is open that much, something is bound to fall in.

* Johnny U Aren't — Joe Flacco will portray Johnny Unitas in an upcoming movie produced by Joe Unitas entitled "Unitas We Stand," in scenes of the 1958 NFL Championship Game. Hopefully, this time, it won't take Flacco five years to act like a real quarterback.

* Ski-zer? — Lindsey Vonn followed Tiger Woods during his opening round 2 under at the Masters on Thursday. Vonn later commented that she and Woods "met after 18," then later clarified that it was 18 holes, not 18 previous women.

* The Backups Plan — Kevin Kolb signed a two-year contract with the Buffalo Bills and will compete with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting quarterback spot. If this quarterback battle were a Jersey Shore character, it would be called "The No-Win Situation."

* Been There, Done That, or He Boldly Went Where Several Men Have Gone After Him — Ray J released a song reportedly about Kim Kardashian called "I Hit it First." Kanye West is expected to retort with a song tentatively titled "Sloppy Seconds."

* This Calls For a Celebration, Preferably on a Table — Louisville defeated Michigan 82-76 to win the 2013 national championship, giving Louisville its third national title and head coach Rick Pitino his second. Pending his wife's permission, Pitino plans to have the trophy "mounted" on a table.

* Brazil-iant Idea!, or Ii's All Greek to Me — The Olympics are considering adding 3-on-3 basketball and BMX freestyle to the Rio de Janeiro games in 2016. Also under consideration are rhythmic cornholing and synchronized pressure-washing.

* Agent Z-ro, or It's Called "Rap-resentation" — Jay-Z is divesting his share of ownership in the Brooklyn Nets in order to extend his Roc Nation Sports representation business into basketball. NBA commissioner David Stern commended the move, saying it is possibly the only way to bring "hustle" back to the game.

* Please Don't Call it a "Run" on RG3 Jerseys — Robert Griffin III's No. 10 jersey set a record with the most sales ever in a fiscal year, surpassing Brett Favre's No. 4 Vikings' jersey of 2009. Unlike RG3 himself, the No. 10 jersey will be ready for the start of the season.

* "V" is For "Victory," or Panty-Wasted — Connecticut routed Louisville 93-60 to win the NCAA women's basketball championship, setting a record for largest margin of victory in a title game. On-lookers noted that only one team played like girls.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:06 AM | Comments (0)

Raging Bull

So much for the fun stuff of the season's first fortnight. Stuff such as the Atlanta Braves (so far) looking none the worse for Chipper Jones's retirement. The Washington Nationals picking up where they left off in 2012. The Oakland Athletics doing likewise and to the tune of (so far) the American League's best record. The New York Mets looking at least like they're in every game (most of the time) and with a 5-4 early record. (For the Mets, that's pennant-race respectable.) The Boston Red Sox shaking off 2012, the Empire Emeritus looking merely shaky.

Then the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres (I'm listing them alphabetically by city, just in case) had to spoil everything by playing this season's first chorus of "Take Me Out to the Brawl Game." All because San Diego's Carlos Quentin parked his head up his posterior while leading off in the sixth inning. Keeping it there long enough to forget that no pitcher, not even a guy who might have plunked you twice in the past, is going to think about putting you on base on the house, period, leading off a middle inning in a 1-run game with a full count.

Quentin took a 3-2 pitch from Zack Greinke on the left bicep Thursday night. Then he chucked his bat to one side, took a few steps toward the mound, and broke into a charge toward the right-hander, Greinke crouching low to defend himself as Quentin arrived like a bull who'd just taken an arrow in his tail. The benches and bullpens poured out to the mound area, where Greinke went down in a crowd and came out of it with a fractured left collarbone. One that's going to keep him out eight weeks, at least.

Watch all available replays. There's no way Greinke was looking to drill Quentin. The earliest evidence, after the game score and the pitch count, for the defense should come from Dodger catcher A.J. Ellis. He was caught off-guard completely by the errant pitch. A battery planning a knockdown pitch is going to be set up for just such a delivery. A catcher preparing for it will shift ever so subtly to the farthest possible inside position behind the hitter. A pitcher fool enough to drill a potential tying run on 3-2 with first base open and nobody out is a pitcher who's looking for a heavy fine from his clubhouse's kangaroo court.

What could Greinke have hollered to Quentin as the San Diego outfielder took those first steps forward? Who knows? Earlier in the game, Dodger center fielder Matt Kemp took a brushback pitch from Jason Marquis. Common sense should tell you Greinke wasn't going to wait that many innings, never mind the situation at hand, to send a message via Quentin Express.

Yes, the two have something of a history. As American Leaguers. Quentin, then with the Chicago White Sox, took a couple of plunks from Greinke, then with the Kansas City Royals. Greinke left Kansas City after 2010; Quentin left Chicago after 2011. It's just a little too far to stretch to suggest Greinke has carried a lust for one more plunk for two and a half years. And Quentin has developed a concurrent reputation for using the plunk as an offensive weapon; he's been plunked 98 times since 2008, including Thursday night, and he's known around the game for diving over or crowding the plate for that slight extra advantage.

When the smoke and the melee seemed to clear the first time Thursday night, one or two Padres were said to be hollering words amounting to snide remarks over Greinke's injury. At around the same moment, the word that Greinke's left collarbone was fractured in the brawl enraged Kemp enough to charge toward the Padres' dugout (emptying benches a second time) and, after the game, seek out a postgame showdown with Quentin.

Apparently, the snide remarks about Greinke's injury (thought initially to be a shoulder injury) to one side, even enough Padres were apologetic over Quentin's brain flatulence. That's how Ellis described it when it was all over and, incidentally, the Dodgers put the game in the bank, thanks to pinch-hitter Juan Uribe's eighth-inning solo bomb. (A former Padre, Adrian Gonzalez, had opened the festivities for the Dodgers early with a 2-run blast.) For his part, Quentin would tell reporters only that the entire rumble was unfortunate and "could have been avoided."

Yes, it could. And Quentin himself could have seen to that. He had nothing more to do than drop his bat, take his base, and pray the men following him in the lineup could get him home with the tying run, and maybe do something more while they were at it. Apparently, that's too complex a thought for the mind of a man who thinks a $143 million pitcher would be foolish enough to put the potential tying run on base to open an inning.

That, sirs and ladies, is a man who needs to give his head a good cleansing. An eight-game suspension (Dodger manager Don Mattingly's idea of suspending Quentin until Greinke can pitch again is a heart in the right place and a head momentarily bereft of knowing the rule book on these matters), handed down Friday, ought to provide Quentin with just enough time to get that done. (Yes, there are those who think eight games is far too lenient, including myself.) Padres manager Bud Black, who engaged with Kemp as the latter charged in from center field in the original scrum, could be looking at a little time off for bad behavior, too.

None of which is to say the Dodgers are entirely simon pure. Kemp looked almost as ridiculous charging back out over a few snide remarks from the San Diego dugout, then going to confront Quentin outside Petco Park afterward, a confrontation requiring stadium security, San Diego pitcher Clayton Richard, and a police officer or two to keep from escalating. A couple of games worth of siddown-and-shaddap should set Kemp aright — without removing his respect as a clubhouse leader.

There was, however, at least one thing good for a laugh when all was said and done. Greinke was one of three players ejected for the rumble. Apparently, the idea that nobody's trying to drill a guy on 3-2, in a 1-run game, to put a potential tying run on base opening a middle inning, escapes umpires, as well as hitters.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:56 AM | Comments (0)

April 11, 2013

Thoughts From the Final Four

The tournament is finished. The last brackets have been shredded. The nets have been cut and the trophy is resting in Louisville. So what did we take from this year's Final Four?

Louisville earned it. I've never seen a team quite like Louisville. On their way to the Final Four, the Cardinals had little to no trouble steamrolling any team in their path. They came into Atlanta with an aura of invincibility. Then Wichita State punched them in the mouth. Louisville showed, much like in the Big East title game, that when it wants to take over a game, it can, and when it needs to take over a game, it will. Wichita State and Michigan had Louisville on the rope, but much like native son Muhammad Ali, the Cards played rope-a-dope and showed the grit and mental toughness to win the national title.

This won't be Wichita State's last visit. The Shockers were the party crashers coming into Atlanta, but easily proved that they were deserving of the biggest stage. While Miami's Jim Larranaga walked away with National Coach of the Year honors, one would have to say that, had the vote been after the season, Gregg Marshall was deserving of the crown. Wichita isn't a flash in the pan; Marshall is a fantastic coach and a proven winner and he built a system that took a team to the national semifinal despite losing its top five scorers from last year. Needless to say, his system works.

Butler proved they weren't a mid-major fluke; so much so that they now aren't a mid-major. VCU always gets some respect when brackets are filled. Wichita is the next team in line; a team based on physical inside play, aggressive defense and perimeter shooting. It may take a couple of years, though WSU has a pretty strong team coming back. Don't be surprised though if the Shocks are back in another Final Four real soon.

Every ACC team better have a plan for the Syracuse 2-3 zone. If they don't, the Orange will walk right into their new conference next year and win it. Yes, even without Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse will be tough to handle. Jim Boeheim didn't win the national title this year, but he did an amazing job with his team, whose size, speed, and length simply overwhelmed teams trying to score against his patented zone. Indiana had the top offense all year. Syracuse stuffed it. Marquette had absolutely no answer for it. Michigan showed how it can be done (and I'm sure Coach K will have a few tricks up his sleeve as well), but the ACC better prepare for the Orange next year ... after all, Louisville is knocking on their door in two years.

The jump ball call against Wichita State in the last seconds was horrendous. As said before, Louisville earned their title. However, their comeback win over the Shockers was slightly marred by that awful piece of officiating; something Wichita fans are going to have a hard time forgetting. Anyways, the officiating wasn't stellar, to say the least. The NCAA needs to demand better from their marquee event.

The writers got it right. The best college basketball player this season was Michigan's Trey Burke. Without him, Michigan goes from a great team to a pretty good team (no offense, Spike Albrecht). Burke was the heart, soul and catalyst for the Wolverines. On the ropes against Kansas, Burke stepped up late and helped save the day. Two days later, he destroyed Mr. Logistics and the Gator attack with relative ease. Beating Syracuse requires outstanding play from your point guard and again, Burke delivered. He lived up to the hype. He's the real deal.

The writers got it right again. Luke Hancock might have been a huge payout for anyone in Vegas that bet on him to win the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. However, where would Louisville have been without him in those last two games? Hancock was the essence of clutch when the Cardinals needed someone to step up when it counted.

The NCAA got it right. It's hard to believe the NCAA getting anything right these days. However, setting up the D-II and D-III title games in Phillips Arena and holding them on the day before the title game was a brilliant move. The crowds were bigger, the players had to been more appreciative, and the atmosphere was really something special for those teams. This is one new wrinkle that the NCAA should never change. Bravo, NCAA (for once).

All in all, an intriguing tournament led to a phenomenal Final Four. Three great games produced a champion, and soon enough, we'll be setting up shop for next year.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 12:31 PM | Comments (0)

April 10, 2013

RBI, GIDP, and Clutch Hitting

For decades, Runs Batted In (RBI) has been among the most celebrated statistics in baseball. In particular, players with a lot of RBI are generally viewed as good clutch hitters — hitting home runs or delivering with runners in scoring position.

The opposite side of the same coin is double plays. If you have teammates on base, you might drive them in, but you also might hit into a rally-killing double play. Those get a lot less publicity than RBI, but they're devastating to the team. If driving your teammates home is the essence of clutch play, grounding into a double play is the opposite.

So which players are really clutch? Who drives in a lot of runs without cutting off rallies? Sabermetricians now have sophisticated ways of calculating clutch performance, but I'm deliberately going for the simple approach here. I'm writing this because I hope you'll find it interesting, not because I want you to draw major conclusions from it. I've looked at three sets of players:

1. MLB's top 100 RBI leaders in 2012 (actually 104 because of a tie)
2. Every active player with at least 500 career RBI
3. MLB's top 100 career RBI leaders since GIDP became official (NL, 1933; AL, 1939)

Unless otherwise noted, all data sets are sorted by ratio of RBI to GIDP (higher numbers are better).

2012 Season

Among last year's top 100 in RBI, here are the 10 best in RBI-to-GIDP ratio.

We're looking at pretty small samples of data here, so one double play can dramatically change a player's ratio. What's interesting is the cluster of Rangers in the top 10. Is there something about that team that lends itself to RBI, or prevents GIDP? As we look at the bottom 10, the answer is: apparently not.

Michael Young's RBI/GIDP ratio is mind-blowingly bad. When he came to the plate with a runner on, almost half as often as he drove the man in, he would get himself out, and the baserunner, too. He grounded into more double plays than Hamilton, Cruz, and Beltre combined.

If you took the top 120 in RBI rather than cutting it off at 100, Derek Jeter would rank even worse than Young and Kendrick (2.42), with 58 RBI and 24 GIDP. Some other players of interest:

11. Adam Dunn: 96 RBI, 8 GIDP, 12.0 ratio
12. Mike Trout: 83 RBI, 7 GIDP, 11.9 ratio
16. Andrew McCutchen: 96 RBI, 9 GIDP, 10.7 ratio
37. Yadier Molina: 76 RBI, 10 GIDP, 7.6 ratio
66. Prince Fielder: 108 RBI, 19 GIDP, 5.7 ratio
69. Albert Pujols: 105 RBI, 19 GIDP, 5.5 ratio
71. Buster Posey: 103 RBI, 19 GIDP, 5.4 ratio
76. Alex Gordon: 72 RBI, 14 GIDP, 5.1 ratio
79. Miguel Cabrera: 139 RBI, 28 GIDP, 5.0 ratio
87. Robinson Cano: 94 RBI, 22 GIDP, 4.3 ratio

Teams that hit-and-run a lot will have more caught stealing and fewer double plays, but managerial strategy doesn't seem to play a major role in these stats, beyond obvious factors like batting order. If you isolate variables, however, you find a few patterns in which batters do and do not rank well:

1. Speed matters. Being unusually slow seems to matter more than being particularly fast. Looking at 120 batters, the top 30 in RBI-GIDP ratio stole 75% more bases and were 20% more successful than the bottom 30. The same applies less dramatically to the middle 60, who are much closer to the top 30 than the bottom 30.

2. Flyball hitters ground into fewer double plays. Captain Obvious reporting for duty, your honor.

3. Power hitters do better. This is probably implied by the point above. Sabermetricians use a stat called isolated power (ISO), which is just slugging percentage minus batting average. It's a measure of hitting for extra bases. And players with high ISOs have more RBI and fewer GIDP than those with low isolated power.

What's interesting is that this remains true when you remove home runs. Since even solo homers include an RBI for the batter, we can learn more about clutch hitting and performance with men on base by subtracting HR from the RBI total. When you do this the gap shrinks, but it's still there.

4. Players with good RBI-GIDP ratios put the ball in play less often. They walk more and they strike out more.

It doesn't seem to be the ratio of walks to strikeouts that matters; it's putting the ball in play. Every time you decrease RBI-GIDP efficiency, walks and strikeouts go down. These numbers are virtually identical when you subtract home runs. Keep in mind that we're only looking at position players here, so there are no pitchers skewing the numbers.

The Best Active Players

We can learn about general trends by studying seasonal data for large groups of players, but to judge individuals fairly, we need to look at multiple seasons. I ran the numbers for every active ballplayer with at least 500 RBI, 86 players altogether. For purposes of this study, I'm ignoring the new season; stats are through 2012. And by "active" players, I mean those who appeared in the major leagues in 2012, even if they're not on the field this year. A lot of accomplished, older players are still looking for contracts. That means I am including some players who we know are retired, like Chipper Jones. Anyway, here's the list:

These differences are significant. You look at experienced players like Johnny Damon, Adam Dunn, and Jim Thome, and their RBI-GIDP ratios are twice those of players like Paul Konerko, Miguel Tejada, and Derek Jeter. Statisticians often deride RBI as an opportunity-based stat, taken out of context. But this is largely in context, and the difference between Damon and say, Torii Hunter, is significant. For their careers, Damon has 1,139 RBI and Hunter has 1,143, almost exactly equal. But Damon has GIDPed just 94 times, compared to 219 for Hunter. That's not a fluke statistic.

Curtis Granderson is so far ahead that I got curious and looked at his stats on Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. At both sites, he rates as a negative clutch player. That's surprising, but it also tells you how careful you need to be before you draw sweeping conclusions from this research. Granderson's batting average and OBP with runners on base have not been good. Even though I keep using the term clutch, I'm really talking about two stats, not performance.

The Best of All Time

The last list shows MLB's top 100 all-time in career RBI, limited to years when GIDP was also tracked, which eliminates everyone before the 1930s and most players before the 1940s.

If you go to 120, Will Clark (12.05) ranks between Barry Bonds and Eddie Mathews, while Julio Franco (3.85) is even worse than I-Rod. These are all good players — say what you will about the weaknesses of RBI, you don't drive in 1,200 runs without being a good player — so there are some Hall of Famers near the bottom of the list. The one who surprises me most, though, is 33rd-ranked Willie Mays. I'd have figured him in the top 10 or 15. These numbers aren't HR-adjusted, either, and if they were he'd be basically average.

This is a messing-around study, intended solely to be interesting. Hopefully, though, it's also a reminder that RBI don't exist in a vacuum. When you examine the offensive production of Mike Piazza (1335 RBI, 229 GIDP) and Ivan Rodriguez (1332 RBI, 338 GIDP), the RBI numbers leave a lot out.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:31 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 6

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson won from the pole at Martinsville, leading 347 of 500 laps to win the STP Gas Booster 500, his eighth win at the Virginia half-mile track. Johnson claimed the points lead, and now leads Brad Keselowski by 6.

"Eight wins at Martinsville is amazing," Johnson said. "So is the number of grandfather clocks I've amassed. Those clocks really come in handy at Martinsville, mostly to measure my margin of victory."

2. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished sixth at Martinsville, posting his fourth top-10 result of the year. He is second in the point standings, six behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I support the actions of my Penske teammate Joey Logano," Keselowski said. "Despite his age, diminutive frame, and general goofiness, he is one tough customer, and not afraid to assert himself. With the NRA 500 coming up, I think it's a good time to say that Joey is a lot like NASCAR — he's not gun-shy."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt's day ended on a sour note as a late spin left him two laps down and in 24th place in the STP Gas Booster 500. He tumbled from the top of the Sprint Cup point standings, and is now third, 12 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"It was a good, albeit short, week on top," Earnhardt said. "For all the problems my car experienced Sunday at Martinsville, gear box trouble was not one of them, because I was definitely not stuck in 'first.'"

4. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished fourth at Martinsville as Hendrick Motorsports claimed three of the top four spots in the STP Gas Booster 500. He is fifth in the point standings, 32 out of first.

"I won at Texas in 2006," Kahne said, "and I proudly hoisted the ceremonial six-shooters in Victory Lane. On Sunday, I don't plan on letting anyone infringe on my right to again bear arms."

5. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer recovered from early damage to take the runner-up spot at Martinsville, holding off Jeff Gordon on a late restart. Bowyer is now eighth in the point standings, 52 out of first.

"It was quite a turnabout from last year at Phoenix," Bowyer said "This time, Gordon was chasing me. And, just like last year, nothing would have happened had he caught me.

"As you may have heard, I landed sponsorship from Gander Mountain for next week's NRA 500 at Texas. So our team we'll be well-heeled, while the race itself will be well-armed."

6. Kyle Busch — Busch led 56 laps and finished fifth at Martinsville, posting his fourth top-five of the season. He is fourth in the point standings, 28 out of first.

"That's four consecutive top-fives," Busch said. "So, when you say 'Busch is on fire,' you'll have to be more specific. It's certainly not the first time Kurt's been fired. But let's hand it to Kurt — he's usually starting fires; this time, he put one out."

7. Greg Biffle — Biffle was the top finisher for Roush Fenway Racing, registering a ninth in the STP Gas Booster 500. He is now fifth in the point standings, 32 out of first.

"Luckily," Biffle said, "there was no controversy involving Joey Logano at Martinsville. He may be the most-watched driver right now. All eyes, particularly Denny Hamlin's evil one, were on Logano.

8. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished a disappointing 15th at Martinsville after electing to pit for fresh tires on a late pit stop. He dropped three places in the point standings to seventh, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 38.

"It would be a dream come true to win the NRA 500 next week in Texas," Edwards said. "Then I could perform my signature backflip and land in open 'arms.'"

9. Jeff Gordon — Gordon joined Hendrick teammates Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne in the top five with a third at Martinsville. Gordon chased Clint Bowyer after the final restart with eight laps to go, but could never overtake him.

"I tried my hardest to put Bowyer 'behind' me," Gordon said. "But try as I might, someone always ends up asking me about the incident in Phoenix."

10. Mark Martin — Martin, driving for the injured Denny Hamlin, took the No. 11 FedEx Toyota to a 10th-place finish at Martinsville, joining Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch, who finished fifth, in the top 10.

"I was two laps down at one point, " Martin said. "In the No. 11 car, that's called 'back' trouble."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:56 AM | Comments (0)

April 9, 2013

Lessons From the 2013 NCAA Tournament

With the hangovers still pounding in Louisville (and Ann Arbor), the 2013 NCAA tournament is in the books. Despite the dramatics in Monday night's finale, it wasn't a pretty tournament. The play wasn't all that spectacular. The officiating was horrendous (horrrrrrrrrrrr-endous!!!!!). There weren't many transformational individuals and the most memorable story was Kevin Ware's broken leg.

Factor in the major distractions at Rutgers with Mike Rice and Pac-12 officiating version of bountygate — during Final Four week no less — and the NCAA could have had a better past few weeks.

With that said, the NCAA tournament is such a great product that the TV ratings were still through the roof at historic levels. And nobody is going into next March thinking, "Yeah, I normally love the tournament, but last year's wasn't awesome enough so I'm not going to do a bracket this year."

(And if they are, they're stupid and they probably never liked the tournament in the first place.)

So rather than dwell on this year's shortcomings, let's take a look at what transpired over the past few weeks and see what we can learn.

Lesson 1: In the absence of greatness, pick toughness. This was the thing I took the most away from this year's tournament. Louisville is a great example, but the best example came from Wichita State. The Shockers didn't even win the Missouri Valley, but they made the Final Four because they were the toughest team in their region.

The same lesson played out over and over. Minnesota over UCLA. Colorado State over Missouri. Marquette over Miami (without Reggie Johnson). Syracuse over Indiana. Michigan over Florida. Whenever a team was demonstrably tougher, that team usually won.

Lesson 2: Don't ever trust John Thompson III, Frank Haith, or Mark Few. Just don't. Ever. Each one of them may prove me wrong once in the next decade, but I'll take the trade-off of being right the other nine years.

Lesson 3: On the opposite end of the spectrum, don't bet against Brad Stevens, Shaka Smart, Sean Miller, or Roy Williams in the first round.

Lesson 4: Pay very close attention to the "Round 1" teams who play in Dayton. More specifically, pay attention to "Last Four In" teams, because one of the two winners is winning at least their first game, if not going further. VCU made the Final Four in 2011. South Florida won in a 12-5 upset in 2012. And La Salle made the Sweet 16 this year. This is what we in the business call a "trend."

Lesson 5: Well, not so much a lesson as a thought: I can't wait to see how some of these major power teams adjust to their new conferences next year. Teams are in large part a byproduct of their surroundings. If you're going to play a bruising Big East (as it was) or Big Ten schedule, you have to adjust to match that specific style of play. But over the next couple of years, teams will still be adjusting. So Maryland will still be playing ACC ball in the Big Ten. And Syracuse will still be playing Big East ball in the ACC. And who knows what the American Athletic Conference will be? Next year is going to be weird.

Lesson 6: When a team's stats look much better than they should for their seeding, it's usually because they're inconsistent, and that inconsistency will rear its head at the worst possible time. I call this The Pitt Rule.

Lesson 7: A note for any CBS producers out there — just because I guy develops a following for being snarky on Twitter or radio doesn't mean they'll be good at a studio show. I call this The Doug Gottlieb Rule.

Lesson 8: The major figures for next year's NCAA tournament are probably in high school right now. Of course there will be plenty of upperclassmen who make a huge impact, but it's going to be guys like Jabari Parker (Duke), Aaron Gordon (Arizona), and Andrew Wiggins (school undecided) who will be the major storylines. And of course you won't be able to walk within a mile of a season preview story that doesn't start and end talking about Kentucky's vaunted recruiting class.

Lesson 9: Then again, maybe not. Look at the top five classes (according to ESPN) for this year and how far they went in the tournament:

1. UCLA: Lost first round, thanks in part to Jordan Adams getting hurt in the Pac-12 tournament semifinal.

2. Kentucky: Didn't make the yournament and lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. Again an injury played a big role, but it's not like the Wildcats would have been Final Four-caliber even with Nerlens Noel.

3. Arizona: Sweet 16, losing on last-second three to Ohio State. With the entire class returning, the addition of Gordon, and the eligibility of transfer point guard T.J. McConnell, the Wildcats will be a major threat out west next season.

4. Texas: Didn't make the tournament, lost to Houston in the first round of the CBI. Nothing positive to say here.

5. Baylor: Didn't make the tournament, won the NIT. Scott Drew has shown he can collect talent. I'm not sure he's proven he can pull that talent into a cohesive consistent team yet.

Not exactly a whole lot of tournament credentials on that list.

Lesson 10: We haven't seen the last of "Cinderella" runs from 15 seeds, and a 16-seed upset over a one seed is coming. Last year, Norfolk State and Lehigh won their first-round games as 15 seeds. This year, Florida Gulf Coast took it a step further by making the Sweet 16. There's no reason to think this is an aberration. And if a 15 seed can do it, why can't a 16? Is there that much of a difference between FGCU and Southern, who put a real scare into Gonzaga? Is Georgetown really much worse than some of the weaker one seeds we've seen (again Gonzaga as an example)? The 16-1 upset coming. Prepare yourself now.

Until next year!

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 7:20 PM | Comments (0)

The U.S. vs. Serbia Davis Cup Tie Aftermath

It's done. The unthinkable happened. No, I don't mean that it's unthinkable that Serbia, led by the world's No. 1 player Novak Djokovic, would defeat U.S.A led by No. 20 Sam Querrey and No. 23 John Isner in Davis Cup, but that the world's number one ranked doubles team Bob and Mike Bryan twins, would lose on Saturday to a doubles tandem composed of Nenad Zimonjic and some guy named Ilija Bozoljac (many pundits nicknamed him "Bozo"), who is ranked No. 1150 in the ATP doubles rankings, and a mere 335 in singles! But anyone who has watched the matches over the weekend and who has read about it's aware of the headline tidbits. So let's go beyond the doubles upset or the retrospective obvious.

I caught up with Jim Moortgat, an old friend who currently runs a tennis academy in Boise, Idaho, where the tie took place. He resides in Boise, thus he attended the Davis Cup weekend and was in charge of the ball kids. Jim is a well-known figure amongst tennis coaches and circles at the national level. Since the late 1970s, Jim has been involved in tennis as a competitor for a few years, and since then as a coach at many levels, including a successful career as a college coach, and a five-year stint with the USTA Player Development Program. Tennis is an essential component of his life, and coaching is his passion. I asked him to reflect on what happened during the weekend, and below is what he had to say.

Q: Jim, what was the most striking memory of this Davis Cup tie for you?

JM: What struck me most actually happened before the weekend, and it has to do with Novak Djokovic. But before I get to that, let me add this: we live in a soft culture in the USA, and when you add the tennis arena into it, it becomes even a softer culture. There are no other sports where the player "drives the bus," so to speak. Everything revolves around what the player wants, the player tells the coach what he wants to work on, the coach is the player's employee in a sense, and the coach can't "bench" the player for bad play as is the case in many sports. American professional tennis players subscribe fully to this notion.

Then, you have a player like Novak Djokovic, head and shoulders above the rest of the players involved in the weekend. He is the earliest one to come to Boise to get used to the altitude. In Miami the week before, he stayed in the tournament longer than Isner, and lost in the same round as Querrey. Yet he gets to the site days before any Americans and starts training Monday night. He wants to run every stadium stair here at Boise State stadium. To have access to the stadium, one has to get special clearance, and get the security personnel to open the doors. He actually takes the trouble to arrange all that, just so he can get in his necessary workout.

I see this, and I am wondering what the American players are doing on Monday night wherever they are, but they are definitely not in Boise. Novak is out the next morning for practice again. If you want to be like everyone else, then do what everyone else is doing. If you want to be No. 1 in the world, then be an outlier! That is the lesson to learn from Novak's pre-weekend preparation. His training is very different from the Americans, both outside the top 20. We have a guy like Jim Courier at the helm who used to outwork everybody in his days, and yet there is not one American guy who works as hard as the other top guys.

Q: That brings me to my next question: with all due respect and in all fairness to Jim Courier, how much influence the Davis Cup Captain has in the development of American players? To what end does the buck stop with him for this weekend's loss?

JM: I am not sure how much of the blame/credit can be placed on the Captain. If there is blame, it certainly does not lie with Courier alone. Courier has the players for less than a week. He could demand that they come a bit earlier, but again, that goes back to what I was saying previously. The players drive the bus. Jay Berger is the head responsible of USTA Player Development program. Technically, he is Courier's boss. All coaches in the program should demand more from the players, and in my opinion, they simply do not.

When Courier was a player, the knock on him was that he did not have "enough talent," similar to Ivan Lendl when he played. Yet both of these guys rose to No. 1 and overachieved through sheer determination, will, and pure hard work. Since 1968, this is the first time we have never had a player in the top 20. Perhaps we need to realize that "working hard" is also a talent, perhaps the most essential one. The buck stops with the governing body.

Q: It seemed that the Americans' hopes of defeating the Serbs rested on winning the doubles point. It was a massive upset win for the Serbs. What do you make of that?

JM: This relates a bit to the previous question's comments, but before I get there, let me tell you a quick story. There are very few people that I really look up to with their tennis knowledge and the guy that shared the first-hand knowledge of this story was a friend of mine named Steve Smith from Tampa, Florida. Steve told me that long time ago, when Gabriela Sabatini was No. 2 player in the world, she asked Jack Kramer to evaluate her game. Kramer bluntly told her that her serve was terrible and that she did not know how to play the court. He added that he would not help her because he felt that it would take a year of adjustments to add those aspects to her game.

Sabatini replied that she was No. 2 player in the world, so she must be doing something right. Kramer said that rankings had nothing to do with it, either you can or cannot. The implication was that she could either rest on her ranking based on a comparison to the players below her, or take the extra step.

Now, why do I bring this up? Because there are very few coaches, hardly any, who is willing to do what Kramer did that, i.e. demand the best player to do something "more," regardless of how well they do many other things compared to the players below them. They feel like leaving them alone on certain things is the safest way to go. Jim Courier fell into this trap during doubles. His team may well be the world's best doubles team but on Saturday, the best doubles player on the court was Nenad (Zimonjic), and the second best one was his partner Ilija Bozoljac.

Why? Because our team made them play well. Mike and Bob kept serving to Bozoljac's backhand and he was on fire with the returns. In a crucial point in the first set, the Americans served to his backhand he once again hit a scorching backhand return winner. You would think that Jim Courier would notice that, but yet they kept serving to his backhand and through his returns, Bozoljac's confidence soared and he started serving and stroking the ball in a zone. Then comes late fifth set, and again on a crucial point, once again, a serve to the backhand and return winner.

When you are on the bench, even if you coach the No. 1 team in the world, you have to demand more, still strive for perfection. That includes sometimes that the coach demand his team to do something out of their Plan A but one that will make the opponent uncomfortable and take them out of their zone. Courier and the Bryans never did that. As a result, their opponents, who are under normal conditions not as skilled as the Bryans in doubles, found their perfect rythm and overachieved.

Q: Any last thoughts?

JM: Yes, there is one more area where they overachieved, or we underachieved, depending on one's perspective. The Serbians wanted it more than us. Their awareness of what a Davis Cup tie means was tremendous. On the bench, they had 18-20 people, always invested emotionally in the match, vocal and enthusiastic, creating extra energy for their players on crucial points. Djokovic was eating inside when the second set tiebreaker began, and he ran to the bench with his food to encourage and cheer his teammates because he knew how primordial that tiebreaker was to the outcome of the tie.

The Serbian sure as heck knew who they were playing against and what was needed. In contrast, our bench was subdued for the most part, except on few important games and the extension of the fifth set tiebreaker, and we never had more than 10 people on our bench who were far less vocal than their counterparts. The tie was held at an 11,000+ seat arena. There were around 100 Serbians in the crowd, yet several times in the match, it felt like we were playing an away game. Our approach to Davis Cup pales in comparison to how the Serbs approached it.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 12:41 PM | Comments (1)

April 8, 2013

NHL 2013 Contenders and Pretenders

It's hard to believe the NHL playoffs begin in only a few weeks. The shortened season leaves a lot more questions than a typical season. Some teams seemed to benefit from the shotgun start to the season. Others were a bit sluggish in coming together, but are starting to show signs of greatness.

Add to this reality the moves made (or not made) at the trade deadline and there are plenty of teams who have turned heads this season in order to win Lord Stanley's Cup. But who are the contenders and the pretenders amidst the trendy teams?

Chicago Blackhawks — Contenders

The Blackhawks went on an amazing run to start the season, recording points in 24 straight games. They've dealt with a few injuries recently, but it seems like Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp should be fully ready for the playoffs. The Blackhawks were so good to begin the season that they've been able to provide ample recovery time for their injured stars without worrying about falling out of contention.

Chicago looks to be the front runner for the President's Trophy, which isn't exactly good news, looking at the recent President's Trophy Winners and their playoff (lack of) success.

2012 — Vancouver Canucks: Lost in opening round
2011 — Vancouver Canucks: Lost in Stanley Cup Final
2010 — San Jose Sharks: Lost in Western Conference Final
2009 — San Jose Sharks: Lost in opening round
2008 — Detroit Red Wings: Won Stanley Cup
2007 — Buffalo Sabres: Lost in Eastern Conference Final
2006 — Detroit Red Wings: Lost in opening round
2004 — Detroit Red Wings: Lost in Western Conference Semifinal
2003 — Ottawa Senators: Lost in Eastern Conference Final
2002 — Detroit Red Wings: Won Stanley Cup

So the last 10 times Lord Stanley's Cup was awarded in the NHL, only the Red Wings also had that year's President's Trophy already on the shelf at home. Can the Blackhawks overcome the curse? I'd say they certainly have the tools to do so. They are currently ranked first in goals scored and second in goals against. They have two solid goalies. All the makings of a solid playoff run.

Anaheim Ducks — Contenders

The Ducks look good. I know. How profound of me? But seriously, they do. Ryan Getzlaf has blossomed this season and the team has fantastic balance. As of Friday, their top four centers (Gelzlaf, Andrew Cogliano, Daniel Winnik, and Sake Koivo) were +15, +15, +15 and +10. That's impressive. If they keep doing what they're doing, the Ducks are going to be hard to beat in a best of seven series.

Pittsburgh Penguins — Pretenders

I would not have written this a few weeks ago, but I think the Penguins are in trouble. The NHL does a far better job than any other professional sports league of being vague about injuries and Crosby's injured jaw is no exception. He is out indefinitely. He just got out of the hospital a few days ago and will likely require another dental procedure, but who knows when he'll be back. In time for the playoffs? Maybe.

The reality is this: after a perfect month of March, the Penguins are experiencing a post-win streak crash. They'll have no problem winning the Atlantic Division and being one of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference, but the NHL playoffs can spell disaster for a team in Pittsburgh's position — just after a big win streak and with a question mark on their best player. I just don't see the Penguins straightening themselves out in the month of April. They're reeling too much. I think they are going to be spent trying to keep things moving forward in April and be too taxed in May to win. Sorry, Penguins. Not this year.

Edmonton Oilers — Pretenders

I expected the Oilers to be cellar dwellers this season, but they've managed to be on the cusp of a playoff berth. They've been hot lately, but I don't think they have the tools to seriously contend in the playoffs. Unless 40-year-old Nikolai Khabibulin manages to channel the 1999 version of himself.

Minnesota Wild — Contenders

I don't think any team was more hurt by the lockout than the Wild. They made huge offseason moves in signing Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to gigantic deals and then were disallowed from test running their investments. The Wild seem to be piecing things together, as evidenced by their seven game winning streak in late March. But the Wild have needed to rely heavily on goaltender Niklas Backstrom. Backup goalie Josh Harding was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis and has only appeared in four games all season — two with disastrous results. While the Wild have tried others in the backup role, it seems obvious that any chance in the playoffs relies on Backstrom getting hot ... and lots of goals. But the Wild have the personnel to do it. Keep your eye on them.

Columbus Blue Jackets — Pretenders

They may not even make the playoffs, but they tried to make a splash by adding Marion Gaborik at the trade deadline. Gaborik could be exactly what the Blue Jackets need considering they were dead last in scoring at the trade deadline. Gaborik has had fantastic production from time to time, yet he only scored 2 goals in the entire month of March. And only 2 goals in February actually. Maybe a change of scenery will do him good, but I think the Blue Jackets may have wasted energy and resources to get Gaborik. But they're better than they were last year.

Boston Bruins — Contenders

I thought the Bruins would have a hard time without Tim Thomas in the net, but Anton Khudobin and Tuukka Rask have both been fantastic. The Bruins also added Jaromir Jagr at the trade deadline, providing even more solid leadership and playoff experience. The Bruins penalty kill is currently the best in the NHL at 91.1%. That's pretty dang good. Continued solid defense should be a fitting recipe for another playoff run in 2013.

Vancouver Canucks — Pretenders

I've gotten my hopes up for the Canucks a few years in a row now, and I won't be doing that again. The Stanley Cup Final in 2011 was fantastic when they lost to the Bruins. A lot of people blame the Canucks lack of success on perennial head-case goaltender Roberto Luongo and the Canucks have been pretty clear about moving forward with Cory Schneider as their number one goalie, but the Canucks have struggled recently in the playoffs for numerous reasons and the lack of production of Henrik and Daniel Sedin is worrying.

Henrik posted a -11 in the 2011 playoffs, while Daniel posted a -9. And that occurred in the Canucks finest playoff run. The Canucks are just a different team in the playoffs than the regular season. And I don't believe they'll make it very far. The West is too tough for them.

Montreal Canadiens — Contenders

Much like the Ducks, not many people expected much out of the Habs this season, but they just seem to keep winning. Only once this season have the Canadiens gone two straight games without recording a point. And they only have two losing streaks (one of two games, one of three games). Sounds like a team that knows how to bounce back, which is a solid quality for the playoffs.

Los Angeles Kings — Contenders

The defending champs have a balanced attack and have seemed to avoid all the pressures of being the defending champs as the Blackhawks and Penguins took much of the spotlight with their respective streaks. The Kings got off to a bit of a slow start losing the seven of their first ten games — which could have been detrimental in a short season, but they've been pretty hot ever since. They are potential noise makers in this year's playoff race. The only thing they'll be fighting is the fact that no team has repeated as Stanley Cup Winners in this millennium. The last team to do that was the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998.

San Jose Sharks — Pretenders

The Sharks have been riding goaltender Antti Niemi and good defense all season long. They're ranked 25 in goals scores, and 2.4 goals per game just isn't going to get it done in the playoffs. They will need a few players to step up big time if they want to advance in the playoffs. Martin Havlat is the most obvious underperformer on this team. If he can return to a guy who records 60-80 points in a season, that would give the Sharks a much needed boost.

If I had to pick now, I'd say look for a Boston vs. Anaheim Stanley Cup Final. What do you think?

Posted by Andrew Jones at 2:09 PM | Comments (0)

April 4, 2013

Welcome Back, Landon

Landon Donovan has held the weight of United States soccer on his shoulders for a very long time. It has been almost 15 years since he earned tryouts with soccer giants like Manchester United and Arsenal. Back then, he ultimately signed with German side Bayer Leverkusen. He was 17-years-old and already the future of U.S. soccer, Freddy Adu before Adu.

The move to Germany was not a happy one, and was a portent of things to come. He played mostly with the reserves, making just seven appearances with the senior club, two as a starter, with no goals. When he had time off, he couldn't get back to the United States soon enough. Some guys make the cultural adjustment when going to play overseas where their mother tongue is not spoken. Or they only care about soccer and don't pay attention to anything else. Landon's not like that, and I think it's fair to call him sensitive, in a good way. He's that rarest of athlete, one with something of a poet's soul.

Bayer Leverkusen was in a tough spot. Here they had a player with boundless potential, but very, very young and homesick. So they loaned him out to the San Jose Earthquakes. He kicked ass, and would never regularly feature for a European side again. Instead, perhaps more than any other player, he would give legitimacy to the MLS. As Donovan reached stardom and put his teenage years far behind him, he still balked at the opportunity to return to Europe and soccer's biggest stage, save for three for-the-hell-of-it stints for Bayern Munich and Everton during the MLS offseason.

Those three stints meant that, essentially, in three of the last five years, he was playing for 12 months.

This is no mean feat. The soccer season — both here and in Europe, is longer than baseball season, yet it's physically taxing enough that most teams only play one game a week, sometimes two (rarely, if there are scheduling issues, three). And this only refers to his club duties. He also, of course, played for the U.S. National team — 144 times since 2000. For most of that time, he was the pre-eminent U.S. player. He's essentially been playing year-round with all of the physical and mental rigors of being the face of U.S. soccer for a decade straight.

So he decided he needed a break. He didn't go to Europe this time for the MLS offseason, and told his employers, the U.S. National Team and the L.A. Galaxy, he was not going to be back until he was ready to be back. That time happens to be now, with the MLS season in its early stages.

Donovan has enough pull to do such a thing, and few others do. Still, he's earned his break, and should not be begrudged for it. Nonetheless, U.S. head coach Juergen Klinsmann, by all accounts a hardnosed type who has little use for vacationing players, may have in fact begrudged him a little. He has made no promises for allowing Donovan to return to the U.S. team and probably didn't ask Donovan for a post card. "Landon wanted his time. He made certain decisions throughout the last couple of years that are his decisions. I watch that. I evaluate that.

"I could have evaluated him a few times when he was with us, not that many times. I will make the call at the end of the day if he fits into my plans or not."

Fortunately for all concerned parties, Donovan wouldn't have it any other way. "I would absolutely love to be a part of the national team again going forward, I am itching to represent my country again and be a part of it. I also understand very clearly that some decisions I have made are going to make that a difficult task." Everything he says sounds just as intelligent and thoughtful.

How badly does the US need him back? If you listen to Kevin Baxter of the L.A. Times, desperately. "Lost in the euphoria over the United States national team's tie with Mexico in a World Cup qualifier Tuesday was one simple fact: This American team isn't very good."

If we look past the tie with Mexico? You mean that team that is clearly the best in the region, a team we had never beaten, ever, in Mexico before this past summer? I'd say that's pretty good, especially considering we got that result against the run of play, thanks largely to a back four that is widely considered the weakness of this team.

Baxter goes on to bolster his point. "Consider that in three World Cup qualifiers this year the U.S. has scored twice, been outshot by a margin of more than 2 to 1 — including an incredible 17-1 in the Mexico game — and managed only three shots on goal."

Let's look at those three games, shall we? Obviously getting outshot 17-1 by Mexico isn't great, but again, we got the result in the stadium that is Hell on Earth for anyone opposing Mexico. You know where else it's hard to play? Honduras. After the United States and Mexico, Honduras is the third best team in the region, and very few countries come away with road wins anywhere in Central America.

Finally, the third game, against Costa Rica. For him to use a game in a blizzard — which the U.S. won — as evidence of the US's ineptitude is downright disingenuous. No one would look good or play well in those conditions.

After those three matches, the US currently sits in third place in the region, which would be good enough to qualify for the World Cup, with the two most difficult games behind us.. It's all downhill from here. Does Baxter really think we are going to get outshot 2-1 when we start playing the likes of Jamaica or Panama (who to be fair, is off to a great start, but is not historically on the level of the U.S. and Mexico, or even Honduras and Costa Rica), or have a proper, non-snowpocalypse home game?

These results are a jumping point to demonstrate how badly Baxter thinks the US National Team needs Donovan back. We don't, though. For one, despite the yeoman's showing against Mexico, this team's Achilles heel is still the backfield. Donovan can't help there. Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey did not have a great run in the qualifiers, but we know they can score and are unquestionably assets to the U.S. attack. In fact, Dempsey has probably passed Donovan as the king of US soccer at this point.

Does that mean that I don't want Donovan back on the National Team? Of course not. He still not only has a role to play, but a starring, difference-making one.

But the U.S. is not doomed to fail without him, and that's good, because Donovan has always marched to his own drummer, and I would not be surprised if his swan song approaches sooner than later.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:19 PM | Comments (0)

April 3, 2013

Absence of Drama Down NBA's Homestretch

A few weeks ago, Commissioner David Stern advised fans to "stay tuned for the last exciting weeks of the season." Yet, as we head into April, the NBA has just flipped the calendar for the final time in one of its most anti-climactic seasons in modern memory. With only 17 days to go, the lack of postseason urgency that was manifest throughout the winter has left the Association without a pennant race to speak of down the stretch.

The postseason field has remained virtually intact since as far back as January 25. The 16 teams who held playoff spots that day have maintained them into not only February, but March and April, as well. No other team has made inroads excepting only the Los Angeles Lakers, whose 19-7 run in March helped them temporarily usurp Utah as the Western Conference's eighth seed.

Going into April, the Lakers and Dallas were the only remaining outsiders with any chance for postseason entry, although the case for the dark horse Mavericks was effectively closed last night in Los Angeles, while the Lakers kept up their playoff push. Nevertheless, here on the East Coast, I won't be sitting up for the next fortnight waiting on the nightly returns out West. The battle for the final Western Conference spot is a glorified play-in game with stakes not that much higher than those in the opening two nights of the NCAA tournament: the winner earns the right to get thumped by San Antonio. Like some golden apple flung at the feet of Atlanta, this is a distraction that takes us off the path to a championship, an afterthought being played out in the bowels of basketball that reminds us all of what led the NFL to scrap its Playoff Bowl back in 1970.

So, where is all the theatre 645 Fifth Avenue keeps propagandizing?

Even among the chosen ones, things have been static. Since the Spurs moved percentage points ahead of Oklahoma City by virtue of the Thunder's January 27 loss in Los Angeles, the top two seeds in each conference have remained immovable. Other than the Denver Nuggets, who have climbed from sixth to third in the West, and the Chicago Bulls, who've fallen from third to fifth in the East, no team has moved more than one slot in either direction in the last two months. It's as if everyone is cozy in their spot, relegating fans to the soap-operatic concerns over their team's decision to be where they are. Like a March Madness bracket, they'll play out all the permutations of paths to the NBA Finals, which of course is made possible by the Association's stubborn refusal to reseed after each round.

Maybe some of us like this little nuance. The NFL reseeds. The NHL reseeds. Even the PGA re-pairs after each round. In this age of change, the NBA's endearment to tradition is austere as life in Pennsylvania Dutch country. You just don't see it that kind of thing anymore.

And maybe the Association deserves some patience. Improvements take time, and Stern & Co. just don't do postseasons right. As recently as 1988, 16 of 23 teams made the playoffs, which the NBA finally rectified not by weeding the field down to just the good teams, but by adding a whole lot more bad teams to balance out the ratio. And just this past 2006, the guarantee of a top-three seed to each division winner was revoked, partially fixing the very rigid framing of an NBA postseason. Let's not build Rome in a day here.

Bracket management is something to occupy the basketball mind in the wake of March Madness. We know that if our Grizzlies can somehow get a game up on Denver, we'll leap from fifth place into third and delay a date in San Antonio. We enjoy the irony of routing against our Atlanta Hawks or Chicago Bulls because falling back into sixth place means not having to face the Heat until the Eastern finals. It's make-do theatre, just about the only source of excitement in a league absent of drama, but it's time for Commissioner Stern to come to his senses.

Want better drama in April? Find ways to improve the on-court quality of the product. Raise the minimum draft age. Strike sign-and-trades out of the next CBA. Eliminate player manipulation of rosters during free agency. Contract. Basketball is not working in New Orleans and Sacramento. It's dying in Detroit and Milwaukee. Basic economics dictates that less of a supply will generate more demand.

That's real demand, sparked by real interest in good basketball. Not that artificial interest generated by an incessant need to avoid top seeds come playoff time.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 10:42 AM | Comments (0)

April 2, 2013

Mike Trout/Miguel Cabrera Redux

I wrote last year about Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera and the American League Most Valuable Player Award. So did pretty much everyone else, and I realize it became tiresome. Most frustratingly to advocates on both sides, almost nobody changed their minds. If you're a Tigers fan or you focus mostly on Triple Crown stats, you're not turning away from the first hitter to win a Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski. If you're an Angels fan or you've lost faith in RBI, you're firmly behind Trout.

With the 2013 regular season beginning, though, I wanted to take one more look at the comparison — not to persuade anyone, because if anything was going to change your mind about this, it would have happened months ago — but to justify and explain my own position to Cabrera's advocates. I'll do this in just three points, and without any weird sabermetrics. All my acronyms have been around for decades.

And for Trout fans, if you're looking for a concise way to explain why you think a Triple Crown winner wasn't MVP, I think there are three main arguments that come into play.

1. Park Factors

Anaheim is a pitcher's park. If you take out the homefield and just look at road games, Trout's batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage were all better than Cabrera's:

Most of Cabrera's batting advantage was an illusion created by playing half his games in a hitter-friendly park, as opposed to Trout, who played half his games at a ballpark that favors pitchers.

2. Baserunning

In 2012, Miguel Cabrera stole 4 bases. Mike Trout stole 49. When you consider taking an extra base as a runner, things like going first-to-third on a single, Trout has another 23 bases up on Cabrera. Beating the throw to first on a double play opportunity, Trout's advantage is 18-21 bases, depending on whether you count FC (+18) or GIDP (+21). Altogether, that's at least 86 bases Trout advanced that Cabrera didn't.

To even that out in the Triple Crown, you could turn 28 of Cabrera's homers into singles. His batting average stays the same, but now he only has 16 HR and his slugging average drops almost 50 points, from .606 to .561. Ignoring Trout's base-running is equivalent to ignoring Cabrera's last 28 home runs.

3. Defense

Cabrera is not a good defensive third baseman. If Detroit didn't also have Prince Fielder, he'd be playing first base or DH. He stepped up to the more challenging defensive position, which deserves credit, and he's not a disaster at third, but he is a below-average fielder. Mike Trout is a very good defensive outfielder, and in 2012 he was one of the best center fielders in baseball. Trout's 4 home run robberies led the majors.

* * *

Most of Cabrera's statistical advantage can be explained by park effects, with road numbers favoring Trout. Speed on offense gives Trout an outright lead: his base-running edge on Cabrera is roughly equivalent to 28 home runs. When you evaluate fielding, as well, Trout is light years ahead. Even if you consider just those four home runs he stole over the wall — and the defensive difference is much bigger than 4 HR — you have two players whose hitting is nearly equal in the context of their home ballparks, then take 32 home runs away from one of them.

The disagreement over which great player was the more worthy AL MVP was generally framed as sabermetrics vs. traditionalists, WAR vs. the Triple Crown. But supporting Mike Trout wasn't really about sabermetrics. You don't need any help from Bill James to understand basic stuff like home/road splits, speed on the basepaths, or fielding. Fans and managers understood those ideas a century ago. The real issue is that the Triple Crown looks at only three stats. You don't support Mike Trout because you only see the numbers; you support Trout because he's an old-school manager's dream: terrific fielder, exceptional base-runner, smart, gets on base. No one knows yet what Trout will do in his second full season, but last year, this was a player with almost no weaknesses.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:06 PM | Comments (0)

April 1, 2013

Home ... Where the Hoops Are

We are a different generation. When it comes to our working careers, we aren't (for the most part) our forefathers. I'm 33, and I can assuredly tell you that I have worked for two years or more at three different workplaces. That's something my parents, and especially grandparents, didn't really do. Unless there were extenuating circumstances, there is a sense that employees from the Greatest Generation and the Baby Boomers put 30, 40, even 50-plus years at one company before enjoying their golden years.

Now, there are some industries that have always encouraged stepping up in job stature through hopping from one location to another. College coaching is definitely one of them. Names including Bob Knight, John Wooden, and Mike Krzyzewski are just some of the people that will almost always be seen as "one job" coaches. Thing is, these three, and many more, got their start at another school.

But in today's NCAA, most smaller basketball programs have been no more than a stepping-stone to bigger, brighter horizons. Turn around a team struggling to find victories, get a couple NIT berths, earn an NCAA tournament ticket or two, then cash in your chips for the next step on the hierarchy ladder. The Jim Boeheims, Bob McKillops, Fang Mitchells, and Rick Byrds appear to be a thing of the past, right?

Well ... not so fast. There's a new crop of coaches starting to sink their claws into the annals of college basketball's history books. They're bright, energetic, and resources guys that have helped to carry over and sustain the success of their predecessors, even taking them to new heights.

Now it appears the next mid-major leader to be raised to this level is Gregg Marshall. The Wichita State coach put his name at the forefront as the program prepares to make their first Final Four appearance in 48 years. But this won't be the first offseason that the former Winthrop coach has been on another school's "short list." He signed a seven-year extension in 2011 on the heels of a postseason NIT championship.

If Marshall decides to hold to his promise to stay through 2018, this would only seem to continue a growing trend of captains that aren't leaving their established crews to go steer a bigger yacht.

Mark Few is a mainstay at Gonzaga, having roamed the sidelines in Spokane for 14 seasons. He wasn't the original architect of the program's recent run of success (he WAS there when Dan Monson put this whole thing together), but he has kept the train rolling and stocked it with even more talented than ever before.

Brad Stevens may have become the poster child for the future of college coaching. He hit the ground running after Todd Lickliter turned a Sweet 16 run for Butler into an opportunity at Iowa. Now, two title game runs later, he's sprinted ahead of many seasoned veterans.

Shaka Smart kept a trend going at VCU. He was an assistant at Florida for a season before getting the call to go to Richmond. His predecessor, Anthony Grant, was taken off of Billy Donovan's bench after a successful 10-year stint as a Gator assistant. But Smart has built the program to startling new heights. His trademark "havoc" defense might even burn up those famed Arkansas "40 Minutes of Hell" teams.

These three men have all shown their worthiness to stand among the best coaches in the sport. They could have their pick of any major job in the country. However, these coaches have looked at the "palatial" settings offered to them and thought ‘I can build just as fancy of a mansion right here'.

I'm sitting here in Minneapolis, where the University of Minnesota is conducting their own search for the next coach of the basketball program. I'm sure Marshall will pop up on their list of candidates. But while it would be great for the Gophers to become a Big Ten power, I, for one, hope that it's not done through the Shockers' leader.

I'm a fan of lesser-known, smaller-budget programs holding on to their people and investing in their programs. In my opinion, the parity of college basketball has grown steadily over the last couple of decades, providing a mix of the NCAA's illustrious past and what we could see in the future. The best way to keep expanding that parity is to have stability with the head coaches at those institutions.

Think of it this way. The NFL's popularity is sky-high. Does the effect of the salary cap make it so? Absolutely. The coach of a college basketball program can overcome budget discrepancies and be similar to a salary cap. Consistency is usually the easiest path to sustained success. It's the kind of success the power schools across the country have maintained. But it's the kind of success that could shift the balance of power on the court ... and show everyone that Generation X can be in it for the long haul.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 1:57 PM | Comments (0)

Santana, Down for the Count, Maybe Career

Some people thought New York Mets manager Terry Collins was somewhere between nuts and flakes to let Johan Santana try to finish what turned out to be the first no-hitter in club history last June. Wasn't Santana on the comeback trail after missing 19 months, including all of the 2011 season recuperating from surgery to repair a torn left shoulder anterior capsule?

Santana wanted to finish the game in the worst way possible, and Collins would admit he agonized before letting his man try for it. Agonized? This is a manager who takes crap from no one, even if he's not even half the martinet he was managing in Houston and Anaheim, yet Collins broke to tears when his man finished the job.

It took Santana 134 pitches to complete the gem. He struggled over his following ten starts, then went down for the rest of 2011 when a) Chicago's Reed Johnson stepped on his ankle during an infield play, and b) it was revealed subsequently that he suffered back trouble. Now Santana is looking at a possible second surgery to repair a re-torn left shoulder anterior capsule. It would take him out of the entire 2013 season at minimum. And it could mean the end of his pitching career at maximum.

Santana is one of nine pitchers who've had shoulder capsule surgery since 1996, when Bret Saberhagen, a former Met himself, underwent the procedure. Six including Santana — Mark Prior, Dallas Braden (he of the Mother's Day perfect game a couple of years ago), Chris Young, Chien-Ming Wang, and Pedro Feliciano are the others — haven't pitched a full major league season since undergoing the procedure. Three (Prior, Braden, Feliciano) haven't re-appeared in the Show at all since the surgeries. Comebacks from one such surgery are tricky enough. If Santana undergoes the surgery again, he'd be the first to go there a second time but his hard prospects for a pitching comeback — he'd be 35-years-old for the 2014 season, if he returns — would be about the width of a thread.

This is just what Santana and the Mets didn't need after everything else.

On apparent doctor's orders, Santana took the offseason off, literally, resting his body entirely following two years worth of working his way back from the first capsule injury. The problem was that the Mets and their coaching staff, who acknowledge the orders for his complete offseason rest, spoke up about "disappointment" that Santana did it anyway. General manager Sandy Alderson was foolish enough to say it in more blunt terms: Santana showed up for spring training "out of shape" and "not as up to speed" as the Mets thought he should have arrived.

A competitor who likes neither losing nor duplicity, something true of him his entire career, Santana took it out in camp. He worked what's been called an unauthorized bullpen session in early March to prove he was healthy again — a session he did before the Mets expected him to do it, and, as Newsday's David Lennon writes, "with a ferocity that surprised the staff." After a 15 March session, alas, his lower back acted up again and he was expected to be on the DL to open the season, anyway.

Nobody can say for certain whether those two bullpens, especially the pride-driven premature session, did the dirty deed on the shoulder capsule. But there went the Mets' possible plans to trade a rejuvenated Santana by the July non-waiver deadline before he could finish his walk year and test the free agency pool come October.

There, too, possibly, went Santana's hopes of getting one more significant payday, maybe from the Mets, maybe somewhere else, after a comeback 2013. Returning from one shoulder capsule surgery is testy at best. Trying to come back from a second, if Santana undergoes the procedure, could be considered somewhere between difficult and impossible. Could be.

Because he's Johan Santana — and because the name meant the arguable best pitcher in baseball for the second half of the Aughts — the smart money says he'll get another chance if that's what he desires, according to Sports Illustrated's Cliff Corcoran and just about everyone else with a spot of sense. That doesn't mean he'll pitch even the way he did up to and including last year's no-hitter again.

If you look at things this way, you can argue that his shoulder and other injuries have probably taken Santana off the Hall of Fame track. He might have been baseball's best pitcher over the second half of the Aughts, but he comes up shy enough of a no-questions-asked Hall of Famer if you take his career as it happens to be at this writing. As Jay Jaffe (SI) points out, Santana's wins above a replacement-level player total 49.1 overall and 43.1 for his peak value; the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher compiles 68.1 overall and 47.7 for his peak.

Santana at this moment is 75th on the list for starters all time, ahead of Sandy Koufax at 82, but Koufax's peak value — the very thing that made him a Hall of Famer — includes three Cy Young Awards in an era when it was given to one pitcher across the board, a Most Valuable Player award (he won that plus his first Cy Young in 1963), and a deadly World Series record in a time when there was no divisional play and pre-Series postseason play: Koufax's 0.97 ERA in 57 World Series innings was simply staggering. Santana has never pitched in a World Series, which isn't entirely his fault, but he has a postseason ERA of 3.97 and, in his only League Championship Series (2002, against the Angels), he was strafed for a 10.80 ERA (four earned runs in 3.1 total innings).

There have been great pitchers who pulled up short of Hall of Fame-great, and Santana is likely one of them. He has three league ERA titles and one pitching triple crown win (2006); he led his league in strikeouts three straight seasons (2004-2006), in lowest walks and hits per inning pitched four straight seasons (2004-2007), and in strikeouts per nine innings three straight (also 2004-2006). He was likely as much a victim of his teams' performances as he was of his health as his career went on.

When he was traded to the Mets in February 2008 and signed to the deal that expires after 2013, Santana responded by leading the National League in ERA (2.53) while winning 16 games and losing 7. The same season, Santana had 10 no-decision games. In nine of those games, he pitched well enough to win (giving up three or fewer earned runs); in five of those nine, the Mets went on to lose. He might have finished with 25 wins if the game results equaled his pitching in those games and beaten Tim Lincecum in pitching WAR on the season (Lincecum led the league with 7.9; Santana finished right behind him with 7.1); he might have been the leading winner overwhelmingly (Brandon Webb of Arizona led with 22, the league's only 20-game winner that year); he'd have had a .734 winning percentage over the .696 with which he finished.

But he also pitched much of the final half — including a dazzling, 2-0, three-hit shutout at the Florida Marlins while the Philadelphia Phillies were busy clinching the NL East — with a torn meniscus in his left knee, undergoing surgery in October. Which nobody may have thought much about while he was spending that September going 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA for the month.

His real trouble as a Met (he'd always had arm issues as a Twin) began in 2009: he was forced to shut down for the season in late August after undergoing arthroscopic surgery to remove chips from his pitching elbow. In late 2010 he suffered the first shoulder capsule injury, and who knew how long he'd pitched with it despite his 2.98 season ERA?

The likely conclusion: if his career is indeed over, and it may well be, unless he proves a trans-dimensional medical miracle, a combination of team efforts and his own body will probably keep Johan Santana out of the Hall of Fame. But they shouldn't keep anyone from remembering that he was a truly great pitcher at a peak that dissipated too painfully, too soon.

Nor should anyone label Santana a contract bust as a Met. Maybe they did overpay a bit in dollars and prospects when nobody else was trying all that hard to get him. But the Mets needed a Santana-level pitcher after that 2007 collapse, and when his health allowed he produced pretty much as you'd have expected him to produce. It wasn't Santana's fault that the Mets had only one winning season with him on the roster.

And, if nothing else, this was a great pitcher who also pitched the first no-hitter in Met history. The question now haunting the Mets, if not baseball itself, is whether Santana has ultimately sacrificed his career to do it, or whether it merely helped bring his health issues to the boil that means his day is done.

We love to watch men with the mindsets of bulldogs on the field or on the mound. We don't always stop to think that the very thing we admire about them could be the very thing that finishes them before their time.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:35 AM | Comments (0)