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January 31, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Super Bowl XLVII

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Baltimore vs. San Francisco (-4½)

It's brother versus brother in Super Bowl XLVII, as John Harbaugh's Ravens battle Jim Harbaugh's 49ers in New Orleans. Heretofore, Hee Haw's Hager Brothers have enjoyed the crown as the most well-known Jim-and-Jon brother tandem in history. No more.

"That's a mighty obscure reference," Jim Harbaugh said. "I don't think I know what Hee Haw is. Alex Smith says I should, because 'hee haw' is the sound an ass makes.

"Alex has been seething ever since I benched him for Colin Kaepernick back in Week 10. I know Alex wants to blow his top, but he's held it in like a true team player. That's why I feel like I'll be doing him a favor when I give him his 'release.' I'm hopeful Alex signs with a new team. When he gets 'inked,' he'll finally be able to compare himself to Colin.

"Kaepernick is the future of the 49ers, and he's the future of the NFL. Not only is he a 'half-breed,' he's the 'new breed', as well. And, he runs like a deer; he just doesn't smell like one."

While Ray Lewis is the unquestioned spiritual leader of the Ravens, Baltimore's hopes lie more with the play of Joe Flacco. Flacco will start in his first Super Bowl after a playoff run that saw him vanquish the teams of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road.

"Kaepernick may run the read option," Flacco said, "but I run the 'gauntlet.' Just ask Manning and Brady. If we win the Super Bowl, no one will be able to argue that I am not an elite quarterback. As of right now, I'm not in the same conversation with Manning and Brady, even if I'm having the conversation with them. 'Joe Flacco, Super Bowl champion.' That has a nice ring to it. Currently, that's the only ring I have."

Lewis' pre-game speech to his teammates is one they'll never, ever forget. Mind you, it's nothing they haven't heard before, but this time, Lewis delivers the speech from behind a pulpit, crafted from the finest Peruvian mahogany, and held together with hyperbole and blind faith. Lewis' speech details ten tenets the Ravens must follow to win the game, and remain righteous.

Suitably injected with spirit, the Ravens emerge from the tunnel on fire, literally, after a burning bush ignites a blaze in the locker room. After winning the coin toss, Baltimore defers, and kicks off. The Ravens force a three-and-out, then Flacco engineers a six-minute drive that culminates with a 13-yard touchdown pass to Dennis Pitta.

The 49ers come back early in the second quarter when Kaepernick finds Randy Moss for a 21-yard strike for a score. Overhead on the sideline afterwards, Moss likens the combination to the Joe Montana-to-Jerry Rice connection. Many, actually all, onlookers agree, assuming Kaepernick and Moss hook up four more times and win four Super Bowls.

The Ravens head to halftime with a 17-14 lead.

Beyoncé takes the field for the Super Bowl halftime show, and much as they did when Roger Goodell showed his face in the Big Easy, the citizens of New Orleans collectively exclaim, "Look at that ass!" Even the enamored team of referees remains on the field to watch, giving new meaning to the term "official review."

The pop and soul diva shocks the Mercedes-Benz Superdome crowd when she exclaims, "Are y'all ready for some lip synch?" Initially stunned, the crowd breathes a sigh of relief when Beyoncé breaks into Lipps, Inc.'s "Funky Town."

Beyoncé is then joined onstage by Justin Timberlake, which comes as a surprise to everyone, including Beyoncé. Timberlake makes a play for her sequined blouse, but is clobbered by Z and tossed into a large, cardboard repository.

"Dick in a box, indeed," shouts Beyoncé to a mystified crowd.

Jay-Z and his lady then dedicate their next number to Goodell, and send the Superdome crowd into a frenzy with "99 Problems."

It's touch and go after the half, with no team holding more than a three-point lead. A screen pass to Ray Rice sets up a Justin Tucker 41-yard field goal to tie the game at 27 with less than two minutes remaining in the game.

Kaepernick methodically leads the 49ers down the field and into David Aker's field goal range, which these days means first-and-goal from the 8-yard line. The Ravens' defense stiffens, then block Akers' short attempt, sending the game into overtime.

San Fran wins the overtime toss, but Lewis drills Kaepernick on a scramble, forcing a fumble. Terrell Suggs recovers, and Justin Tucker's field goal gives the Ravens a dramatic 30-27 win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:38 PM | Comments (0)

This Shine Isn't Fool's Gold

We've reached the top of the NBA roller coaster. At the halfway point, it's all downhill from now until mid-April. However, that doesn't mean there won't be more twists and turns to maneuver in the rest of the regular season. The biggest loops have revolved around the Association's two marquee franchises.

Basically, no one could have figured on the Lakers and Celtics struggling so much that it made their fans reach for a motion sickness bag. But, as mind-boggling as L.A. has been, and as disappointing as the now Rajon Rondo-less Boston club is, I'm not headed in that direction.

I came here to heap some praise on one of the more pleasant detours in the NBA track. No, it's not the fact that the Clippers have taken over Los Angeles to this point. No, it's not the fact that the Thunder have smoothly implemented Kevin Martin into the role once filled by James Harden. No, it's not the Bulls squad that continues to thrive without Derrick Rose in the lineup.

Who would have thought that the best story in the league resides in the Bay Area? Golden State has really started to gel in their second season under coach Mark Jackson. The Warriors are eleven games north of .500 (28-17) after Tuesday's thrashing of Cleveland, second in the topsy-turvy Pacific Division, and only a game and a half behind fourth-seeded Memphis.

The reason that they have seen such a jump in the standings? It's partly to do with a slight improvement in their defense (something Jackson would champion during his broadcasting days). Even though the scoring is up (from 97.8 last season to 100.9), the more important step might well be the nearly 1.5 points less that opponents are tallying each game.

You could point to the defense as a sign of improved resolve on a broader scale. The Warriors have played 25 of their 45 games on the road, with a record of 14-11. That's more victories than the 11 they had in 33 road games last season. Plus, this team is slapping the East around, going 15-5 against the conference so far. That includes a season split with Miami.

Another reason the team might be getting better might be the old "addition by subtraction" mantra. It was no secret that Golden State had a backcourt that could light up a scoreboard as well as any in the league. But the midseason trade of Monta Ellis in early 2012 may have actually cured a case of overcrowding at point guard spot.

This move made way for Stephen Curry to be the main decision maker, and the shooter's 21.0 ppg (8th in the league) makes the front office look quite smart. The March 2012 trade also sent young power forward Ekpe Udoh to the Bucks, which may have relieved a little pressure off of starter David Lee.

The team appears to be clicking in the short term. Lee has given the organization its first all-star selection in 16 ... that's right, sixteen ... years. Curry is probably the biggest all-star snub of this year's non-invitees. And Jackson has the ability to mix and match NBA vets (Andris Biedrins, Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry, etc.) with a lot of budding talent (Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, etc.).

However, don't think this coaster will just glide comfortably into the playoffs. There are more loops to roll through. The first will come in the form of returning center Andrew Bogut. The other key figure in the Monta Ellis/Udoh trade made his unexpected season debut on Monday. If the oft-injured Aussie can stay on the court, this could only help the defense get even stronger. Moreover, I wonder how his return will affect the offensive mindset of the team.

Probably the biggest obstacle to manage will be the expectations as the season winds down. We all (or most of us, at least) remember the images Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson provided when the organization upset top-seeded Dallas in the first round of the Playoffs. But that was in 2007. The only player left from that team is Biedrins. It'll be interesting to see how this young core reacts to the pressures of the chase. (The schedule should be a HUGE help, with 16 of their last 22 games at home.)

So, fans of Golden State, make sure that you're strapped in tight for the next few weeks. The climbs and dips aren't for the weak-hearted. And if you make it through this ride, just be warned before rushing off to the next thrill-seeking moment ... the playoff coaster is even bumpier.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 2:17 PM | Comments (0)

January 30, 2013

Rondo Injury Forces Decisions on Future

Rajon Rondo's season-ending ACL tear last Friday in Atlanta has the Boston Celtics' front office on the proverbial horns of a dilemma. Does GM Danny Ainge consider this the death knell for a season that already had one foot in the grave and allow his team to "fall to the cellar for Cody Zeller" as many cynical fans advocate, or does he put some trust in the backcourt depth he acquired last offseason as insurance against such a catastrophic loss?

Ainge's chances to bring Boston an 18th title have been waning since the C's lost Game 7 of the 2010 NBA Finals, but he's managed to maintain part of the nucleus that got him to the championship round twice in a three-year stretch and extended Miami to seven games in last year's Eastern Conference finals, and he's going to extract every last drop of hope before his window for another ring shuts. Any coach would, but Ainge is still feeling the wrath of trading Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder in 2011, a move whose cost was a legitimate title run in the minds of many fans. Despite word to the contrary, he's got cold feet.

To blow up or not to blow up was the stuff of great radio talk show debates even before Rondo's injury. Only 43 games into a significant reinvestment in Kevin Garnett and a swap-out of Ray Allen for spare backcourt parts that included Courtney Lee, Jason Terry, and Leandro Barbosa, it was becoming clear this year's new-look C's with their same-old upfront inadequacies lacked more than just the youth and length to win consistently in today's NBA. They lacked the intestinal fortitude.

Ainge's lively experiment that once-upon-a-time brought a title to Boston has been trying to outdistance the advance of age and drain of talent by stoking an ever-burning fire inside, but there are no longer any logs to throw upon the smoldering ambers of past glory. This is now a team that gets routinely called out by its own coach. The tactic earned Doc Rivers a win the first time he tried it back in November, but it backfired this month after a loss to the Pistons in the midst of a six-game losing streak that no amount of public humiliation could stop, painting Rivers into a now-what-do-you-do? corner. "We've got to make changes," he said after the Detroit loss.

But in basketball as in all aspects of life, Boston is not so quick to surrender its past. In a city with 200-year old ships docked in the harbor and cemeteries that top its list of scenic attractions, where football fans sat on aluminum benches as recently as this Millennium and baseball ownership bolts new bleachers onto the 100-year-old façade of Fenway Park rather than finding a new place to play, the C's fit right in. Theirs is a fan base that once drove Rick Pitino to remind them how "Larry Bird is not walking through that door anymore."

Blowing up the past does not come easy in these parts.

Nevertheless, a large contingent still remembers the original Big Three of Larry Bird, Robert Parrish, and Kevin McHale succumbing under the weight of Father Time's considerable fist, and their memories now cast the TD Garden into uneasy quiet every time opponents blow by KG in the fourth quarter or Paul Pierce short-rims another of his patented dribble-out-the-final-seconds step-back jumper at the buzzer. They fear the costs of hanging on to a good thing too long and have been lining up behind Rivers in recent weeks. The Celtics indeed have to make changes, even if that involves Pierce or Rondo, both the subject of constant trade rumors until the latter's injury. And with Rondo now out of the picture, extremists have even gone so far as to suggest the C's are better off without him.

Better off without the all-star they once put among the top three or four point guards in the game today?

Sure, they've got numbers. Who doesn't? Rondo has missed 34 games in four years and the C's have won 21 of them. That's a .618 winning percentage compared to only .604 with him. This year, they're three games under .500 when Rondo played. Take away his suspect defense and the C's average margin of victory climbs from 2.9 to 4.4 points per game. That's not a delta that can be explained by quality of opponents; sans Rondo, Boston has beaten both the Knicks and the Heat, the latter of which snapped the six-game losing streak that occurred over the last fortnight of Rondo's watch. So how much worse could they be without him?

Then there are chemistry issues. Like a lot of point guards, it used to be said of Rondo that he made others on the court around him better. Now the thinking is that he's made the likes of Courtney Lee and Jason Terry and Jeff Green worse by cramping their style and keeping their shots down. Rivers has indicated no one successor will assume Rondo's role, that it will be point guard by committee. Although the extra minutes and additional responsibilities will undoubtedly benefit Lee, Terry, and to a lesser extent, Leonardo Barbosa, the real lift to the Celtics will be that Paul Pierce will take back game management, as he did on Sunday in Boston's double-overtime win over the Heat. He responded with a triple-double, only his second in the past six seasons.

Whether Ainge and Celtics fans like it or not, they can't trade their way out of this. The only players that garner any interest are defensive specialist Avery Bradley and big man Jared Sullinger, and they're the future of the Green. Read: untouchable. Ainge will have to be content to play the hand he dealt himself, hang on to the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference for the sake of Celtic Pride, and inflict a little torture on the Heat in the first round.

Ainge's window isn't locked tight just yet, but only a draft of air is seeping through. Maybe that's just enough to give breath to false hopes, but it's not enough to get by Lebron James et al. The 2012-13 Celtics will end in Miami, but that will be of some consolation to a team many thought ended in Atlanta last Friday night.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 1:47 PM | Comments (0)

January 29, 2013

Joe Flacco Facts

When Chuck Norris wants to eat toast, he just glares at bread and it toasts itself. When Joe Flacco wants toast, he gets a piece of bread, pops it in the toaster, sets the time, presses the handle, and waits. The 2012 season was Flacco's fifth year in the NFL. Every season, he has been roughly average. When you watch Ravens games, it's usually obvious that you're not seeing a great quarterback or a terrible quarterback, just Joe Flacco. If you compare Flacco's stats to other QBs, they're always pretty average, too. Chuck Norris doesn't have any NFL stats, but only because the NFL doesn't track roundhouse kicks.

With Flacco appearing in this year's Super Bowl, the media has begun looking for ways to pretend that Flacco is an exceptional QB, and we at Sports Central now present Joe Flacco Facts:

* Joe Flacco puts his pants on one leg at a time.

* The laws of gravity don't apply to Joe Flacco, when he's in a weightless environment.

* Joe Flacco once solved a Rubik's Cube, after someone showed him the trick for how to do it.

* When Joe Flacco's car gets dirty, he washes it himself, or takes it to a carwash.

* Joe Flacco once laughed so hard, milk came out his nose.

* When Joe Flacco was a child, he didn't have facial hair yet.

* Joe Flacco can finish a large pizza by himself.

* When Joe Flacco adds 2 + 2, the answer is always 4.

* Joe Flacco can turn water into ice water, by adding ice to it.

* When Joe Flacco unties his shoes, sometimes the laces get knotted.

* Joe Flacco's wife, Dana, is not imaginary, and did not die from leukemia.

* Some NFL players attended the University of Miami, because it's near the beach and it's a party school. Some go to USC, for pretty much the same reasons. Others go to Stanford or Notre Dame because of the academics. Joe Flacco accepted a scholarship to Pitt and eventually transferred to Delaware.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 15th in pass completions.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 20th in completion percentage.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 14th in passing yards.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 11th in yards per completion.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco tied for 15th in passing touchdowns.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 18th in TD%.

* Joe Flacco plays on a team with six players voted to the Pro Bowl, more than Denver or Atlanta.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 9th in TD/INT differential.

* That's good, but it's outside the top 25% of starting QBs, ranking behind two rookies and two whose teams missed the playoffs.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 6th in interception percentage.

* That's very good, but Flacco's 1.9% is 37% worse than Colin Kaepernick's 3rd-ranked 1.4%.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 14th in passer rating.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 15th in sack percentage.

* In 2012, Joe Flacco ranked 17th in net yards per attempt.

* Joe Flacco's dad, Steve Flacco, told The New York Times in an interview, "Joe is dull. As dull as he is portrayed in the media, he's that dull. He is dull."

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:23 AM | Comments (1)

January 28, 2013

(Back)Packing it In

Last week, Yahoo!'s Pat Forde stirred some interest when he dove into the seedy intersection of high fashion and college athletics. Following UCLA's big win over Pac 12-front runner Arizona, Forde noted that Bruins' freshman Shabazz Muhammad left the arena with a Gucci backpack, unlike the standard school issued bags most of his teammates sported.

Forde didn't have the courage — or, you know, evidence — to actually accuse Muhammad of violating NCAA rules in acquiring the backpack (later, Muhammad's sister tweeted at Forde, saying the backpack was a gift from her and offered to show him the receipt). But considering Muhammad missed the first three games of his UCLA career while being investigated by the NBA, Forde's implication was clear.

We'll leave Forde's lapse for 500-level journalism ethics courses. But he is not alone in the sentiment that was on his mind: Whether explicitly or subtextually, many people think there is something wrong with college hoops' one-and-dones. Are they right?

Eight years ago, the NBA instituted the rule requiring players to be one year removed from the graduation of their high school class to be draft-eligible. This rule has greatly shaped college basketball's place for everyone involved.

From the day they set foot on campus, players like Muhammad are different from their classmates and even different from their high-profile football peers. While the Johnny Footballs of the world have to play by the rules for at least two and a half years (the semester after their third season only matters if they intend to return), top basketball players only need to stay eligible for their first semester on campus before they bolt for a better paycheck. And really, not to be cynical, but they only need to appear to be eligible during the period.

The question of whether college athletes should be compensated is pure talk-radio fodder, a lightning-rod straw man often used to introduce semi-political topics like labor or wealth redistribution to drive the conversation.

But outside of those red herrings, the conversation often turns "the college experience." Many pundits glorify this concept, a magical process by which boys and girls begin their metamorphosis into men and women through their time, however brief, in college.

This may have been true at many points in the past, but the college experience for today's star athletes like Muhammad is more conducive to building a network than personal character. By the time elite players reach campus, they already have developed a collection of advisors, family members, and others to whom they are more attached than a coach or teammates they will spend six months with. Heck, even John Callipari gladly says he'd rather see his players get drafted in the lottery than win the national championship.

Other coaches have embraced the one-and-dones to varying degrees. Ohio State's Thad Matta and UCLA's Ben Howland have welcomed many and accepted the year-to-year ups and downs that come with roster turnover. Others, like Duke's Mike Krzyzewski and North Carolina's Roy Williams, have augmented their programs with these players, but focused primarily on building a foundation from the next tier of talent.

But really, the one-and-done rule was created for the NBA's benefit. In short, the league grew tired of trying to scout 18-year-old players sparring with far inferior competition. In order to reduce the risk in drafting young players, the NBA wanted to see elite players compete in a more controlled environment if only for a season.

Perhaps some players that would have been drafted in the lottery out of high school have been exposed by a year in college, but far more remain question marks as 19-year-old draft picks. These players are often incongruent pieces poorly integrated into systems designed to develop players over the course of years, not months. Their talent is obvious, but wasn't that the case in high school, too?

The one-and-done system is broken for everyone. Personally, I would scrap the amateur model for the Olympic model and let players get paid as long as it is not by the school. But barring that, if quasi-amateurism is a requisite in any realistic plan, here are the steps to smooth the system for nearly everyone.

1. Serve the NBA's purpose and create a separate an 18+ supplemental draft aimed at players ready for the NBA straight out of high school. Selected players would go to the D-League, and if they get promoted to an NBA roster during their first two seasons, the franchise would give up a corresponding main draft pick. This would remove the cost of these riskier draft picks being busts, while funneling players not served by the college system to an alternative route. Meanwhile, the current NBA draft would be reserved for players 20+ (or two years removed from high school graduation).

2. This system would force a stronger commitment from the players who choose to attend college. Under this scenario, if a player chooses to go to the NCAA, it represents a commitment of two years. The price for breaking NCAA amateurism status is a "lost" two years, rather than a few months.

3. College coaches would be protected from the Calipari-style mass exodus, as well as the Myck Kabongo or Shabazz Muhammad hostage situations. Coaches at top-level programs have little choice in recruiting these players; after all, the year is divided into basketball season and basketball recruiting season. Having players for two years, including one full offseason, would bring added stability to programs. And in addition to deterring players from accepting benefits that would jeopardize their eligibility, this would lessen the blow of having a player sit out while his status is investigated. Losing the first 10 games of a season is brutal if a player will leave after one year; that blow is greatly lessened if, after his eligibility is verified, the coach knows that player will be back for another year.

4. Petty writers jealous of 19-year-olds' accessories will probably not benefit from this plan.

Even if players are eventually paid by the NCAA, those checks will pale in comparison to what they could make on the free market, either from the NBA or in benefits from boosters. If the current amateur ideal is worth upholding, any path forward must include two divergent roads to the NBA. Those uninterested in making the sacrifices the NCAA requires must be offered another route to the pros, and those who commit to uphold the NCAA's requirements must stand to lose more than a piece of one year of their young basketball lives should they stray.

Until then, we'll be stuck with grown men trying to identify amateurism violations through stylish Gucci McCarthyism.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 9:11 PM | Comments (0)

Stan Musial, RIP: More Than the Man

Prior to an All-Star Game, a group of American League pitchers held a strategy meeting at which the main topic was how to pitch to Stan Musial. Yogi Berra happened to be walking past the open door while the pitchers talked. As if on cue, Berra broke in: "Forget it. You guys are trying to figure out in fifteen minutes what nobody's figured out in 15 years."

Musial died January 19 at 92, a decade older than Earl Weaver, who also died the same day. Somewhere, someone is reminding someone that Ernie Banks said, "Let's play two," not "Let's take two." He came up to the St. Louis Cardinals to stay in late 1941, when Ted Williams was occupied with hitting .406 and Joe DiMaggio had occupied the country with a 56-game hitting streak.

Could there have been any better player to come up in the season of two still-unconquered achievements by two such incandescent and diametrically opposed Hall of Famers?

Had Preacher Roe been among those American League all-stars discussing how to pitch to Musial, he could have reminded them of his own strategy for manhandling the one-time pitcher who manhandled Roe's Dodgers in Ebbets Field to the tune of a lifetime .359 batting average in the little ballpark: "I throw 'im four wide ones and then I pick 'im off first base."

Somehow, baseball never seemed all that much at the mercy of the slings and arrows of outrageous malfortune so long as certain men who once played the game remained among us. So long as the like of, say, Musial, Yogi Berra, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks, and Sandy Koufax remained among us, you felt there was no calamity, scandal, or disaster the game couldn't survive. Now Musial is gone to his reward. One less gentleman standing as the conscience of the game.

Like Williams, Musial never again played on a pennant winner after 1946, the year his Cardinals polished off Williams's Boston Red Sox in the World Series. Unlike DiMaggio, Musial didn't have a particular penchant for dating Hollywood glamour girls. Married to his high school sweetheart well before he made the majors, Musial played the game as hard as it could be played, but never behaved like a lancer or an aloof royal.

Maybe that was one reason why Dickie Kerr could convince him to make the shift that made his career. One of the Clean Sox among the scandal-ridden 1919 White Sox, eventually managing in the Cardinal system, Kerr suggested Musial try playing the outfield, after a fall trying for a tough play ruined Musial as a pitching prospect. Musial might have become baseball royalty (he certainly was royal in St. Louis), but he also knew how to listen.

"An exact opposite of [Ted] Williams," Roger Kahn (in Sport) wrote of Musial. "The perfect gentleman, the perfect sport. Never angry at draft boards, seldom spits in public, always hits with enthusiasm, smiles often. Successful without arrogance, he represents the milder side of those who admire him."

"Like [Willie] Mays," Curt Flood wrote (in The Way It Was), "[Musial] saw the world entirely in terms of his own good fortune. He was convinced it was the best of all possible worlds. He not only accepted baseball mythology but propounded it. [Bob] Gibson and I once clocked eight 'wunnerfuls' in a Musial speech that could not have been longer than a hundred words."

Yet, Musial's modesty and enthusiasm caused people to misunderstand or underappreciate him until after he retired. This was a player who turned out to be one of the ten greatest players of all-time, and he may have been better than that. Yet, in his own time, it seemed fans outside St. Louis or Brooklyn appreciated how great he was. The man could hit but never seemed quite to go over the top. It took retirement, time, and even sabermetrics before Musial's value was appreciated genuinely. "The number crunchers, the baseball geeks, professional or amateur," a Musial biographer, George Vecsey, noted, "put Musial much higher than the fans did."

Musial was in St. Louis when a group of Cardinals reportedly threatened to boycott Jackie Robinson's arrival in the Show. Absolutely no racist — he'd grown up an immigrants' son in well enough integrated Donora, Pennsylvania (one of his baseball pals was Buddy Griffey, the grandfather of Ken Griffey, Jr.), and knew better — Musial was also absolutely no commentator on the issue. He saw Robinson simply as a player on the other side, and why would he reach that far on behalf of an opponent, and if any teammates were fool enough to think about such a boycott, Musial probably saw them as plain wrong.

He simply played ball. Maybe not so simply. One legend holds that Robinson was spiked out of the ordinary bound of play as he ran up to first base on a batted ball. "I don't care what anyone says," Robinson is said to have muttered as he stood on the pad next to Musial, "he's going down." "I don't blame you," Musial is said to have replied. "You've got every right to do it."

And both Bob Gibson and Curt Flood have written that, when they joined the team (Gibson through the Cardinal farm system; Flood by way of a trade from the Cincinnati Reds), Musial was one of the only white players to make them feel welcome.

He had a dry wit about himself. Reminded as he retired that he had two hits in both the first and the last games of his major league career, Musial deadpanned that there was the evidence he hadn't improved much during his career. Once in awhile, he inspired wit himself, even in the breach. Flaky 1970s Baltimore reliever Don Stanhouse's antics earned him the nickname Stan the Man Unusual.

But Musial could also defy the furies of cheap entertainment when he absolutely had to do so. When the Cardinals had ideas about trying to hold Musial out of the lineup until he could get his 3,000th lifetime hit before the home folks, Musial stood in as a pinch swinger when the Cardinals needed one — and got the big knock on the road, in Milwaukee, anyway. Manager Fred Hutchinson called time, walked out to second base personally to life Musial for a pinch-runner, handed him the ball he'd just hit for the books, and let the photographers have their moment with his big man. The Cardinals went on to win the game.

"The next night," wrote Red Smith in the New York Herald-Tribune, "Musial got his 21 guns from the fans in St. Louis, and on his first time at bat acknowledged the salute by flogging one over the pavilion in right."

He merely sits with 123.4 wins above a replacement-level player (12th on the all-time list, 9th all-time among position players), a lifetime .417 on-base percentage, fourth on the all-time hits list (3,630), 9th on the all-time runs scored list (1,949), 3rd on the all-time extra base hit list (1,377), 10th on the all-time offensive winning percentage list (.781), and 2nd in total bases (6,134).

And if you're inclined sabermetrically even further, permit me to point out that Stan Musial meets 76 of the Bill James Hall of Fame Standards (he's fifth all-time on that list; the average Hall of Famer meets 50) ... and scores 454 for batting on the James Hall of Fame Monitor. That's first all-time. All-time. He's nine ahead of Ty Cobb, 33 ahead of Babe Ruth, 34 ahead of Hank Aaron, and 78 ahead of Willie Mays.

James in 2001 ranked Musial the 10th-best player who ever played the game. You can argue whether he can or should be rated higher, but you should care to note that Ted Williams pulls up with a 354 on that Hall of Fame batting monitor … and has 13 more strikeouts lifetime than Musial, despite having 3,266 fewer at-bats. It may or may not be time to reassess who just might have been the greatest hitter who ever lived. And that's without mentioning his six all-star home runs (including the12th-inning bomb he hit in 1955, after assuring a tired Yogi Berra behind the plate, "Relax, I'll have you home in a minute"), his 24 all-star appearances, or the fact that he hit exactly the same at home or on the road — 1,815 hits each.

Not too shabby for a guy who looked at the plate just the way White Sox pitcher Ted Lyons once described him: like he was peeking around the corner of a building waiting for the coppers to disperse before trying to pull a bank job, in maybe the second most unorthodox known batting stance of the time behind Mel Ott.

A guy whose home runs weren't intercontinental ballistic missiles, whose basepath speed wasn't Road Runner slick or ring-a-ding-ding showy, whose plays in left field or at first base were workingman's plays that hardly went shazam!, but got the job done, who never got into a Copacabana or any other kind of brawl, who liked to serenade patrons in his restaurant on their birthdays with a chorus of "Happy Birthday" on his harmonica.

Musial became wealthy by way of a few investments, most notably when he bought into a popular St. Louis steakhouse, Biggie's, where native St. Louisian Yogi Berra's future wife once worked as a waitress. He also spent a season (1967) as the Cardinals' general manager, where he earned a rare reputation for fairness in dealing with player contracts.

"I don't want to be called [El Hombre]," Albert Pujols told a newspaper three years ago. "There is one man that gets that respect, and that's Stan Musial. I know El Hombre is The Man in Spanish. But he is The Man."

Brooklyn Dodger fans hung that nickname on him first out of dismay, knowing the mayhem he was about to wreak in Ebbets Field, but also out of respect. "Stan was such a nice guy," New York Giants pitcher Johnny Antonelli once said, "that I was probably happy for him when he homered off me." Unlike too many before and after him, Musial didn't behave as though his astonishing if still often underrated ability conferred privilege upon him.

He loved two things above all. He loved baseball and those who also love it deeply (he was never known to spurn an autograph request); and he loved his wife, Lillian, who died last year. Both of Stan Musial's lifelong romances really did end only when death did they part.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 2:59 PM | Comments (1)

January 25, 2013

Foul Territory: To Speak or Not to Speak

* Gullible's Travels, or Schmuck of the Irish, or Man' U (R A Sucker) – Manti Te'o's interview with Katie Couric aired on Thursday on Couric's syndicated daytime talk show. Te'o was thankful for the chance to tell his side of the story, and even more grateful for the chance to talk to a real woman.

* What's Better Than Getting KO'ed By a Saint? Getting OK'ed By the Commissioner – Sean Payton was reinstated by the NFL on Tuesday after a season-long suspension for his role in the Saints bounty program. Payton urged the people of New Orleans to hold no ill will towards Roger Goodell, thus becoming the latest Saint to tell a lie.

* Kick a Man When You're Down – Tom Brady apologized to Ed Reed after he kicked Reed on a slide early in the second half of the Ravens' 28-13 win in the AFC championship game. Brady said he "meant no offense," and neither did the Patriots in the second half.

* Slurred it Through Grapevine – Dallas Cowboys nose tackle Jay Ratliff was arrested and charged with driving while impaired in Grapevine, Texas after he crashed his pickup truck into an 18-wheeler early Tuesday. Ratliff, in typical Cowboy fashion, apparently lost control when he saw the playoffs approaching.

* G.M. Punk'd, or Kup' Yours! – Los Angeles Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak said that root of the team's problems is the team's effort, and not head coach Mike D'Antoni. As such, the Lakers continued to lead the NBA in points (of fingers).

* Hungry For More, or the Weight is Over, Fat Back, or He's Giving Up Second Helpings For a Second Chance – JaMarcus Russell is planning a comeback attempt that he hopes will see him return to the NFL. Russell last played in 2009 for the Oakland Raiders. He currently weighs 308 pounds, so, regardless of his comeback outcome, Russell already has two big "busts."

* Intentional Fowl, or Name Droppers – The New Orleans Hornets will officially change their nickname to the Pelicans starting with the 2013-14 season. Fans applauded the change, many of whom said they agree with giving the team the bird.

* Coach K Really Needs a Hug Now, or Spank of the Devil, or Duke Played With a Devil May Not Care Attitude – Miami routed No. 1 Duke, 90-63, on Wednesday, handing the Blue Devils the worst loss ever for a No. 1 team. Thousands of Hurricane "boosters" stormed the court, leading the NCAA to launch an immediate investigation.

* Open and Shut, or to Would Be Presumptuous to Think That Patriots Players Should Silence Their Wives, Because Everybody Knows You Have to Learn to Control Your Gag Reflex – Wes Welker's wife, Anna Welker, apologized for some derogatory comments about Ray Lewis she made on Twitter after New England's 28-13 loss to Baltimore in the AFC title game. In honor of Lewis, Wes Welker retired his wife's Twitter account.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 3:07 PM | Comments (0)

January 24, 2013

The Strangest Foods at MLB Stadia (Pt. 1)

If there's anything I love as much as sports, it's food. I consider myself an adventurous eater and while I consider it a rite of passage to eat a hot dog at any sporting venue I attend, other than that, I look toward foods that aren't often available at stadia and ballparks. This is the first in a three-part series of the most unusual food items available at each Major League Stadium. I tried not to include the foods at on-site, sit-down restaurants, just walk-up concessions (although this is admittedly an exercise in guesswork):

Yankee Stadium — Although they pretty much stick to the classics, being the most classic franchise in baseball, there are some (ha!) concessions to non-tradition fare. I thought that fried pickles were pretty much a Southern thing, having not seen them until I moved to Texas from North of the Mason-Dixon line, but nope, they are at Yankee Stadium, where they are known as "frickles." There's also a cocktail stand and a salad bar.

Fenway Park — I have to note here that their concessions page is awesomely organized by food. I'm given pause by the fact that they have two types of hot dogs (Monster Dog and Fenway Frank), but I'm straying from my purpose, here. They have New England staples such as lobster roll and clam chowder (what a great food to have when a foul ball's coming your way), and, less New England-y, Cuban sandwiches and Turkey BLTs.

Rogers Centre — Also helpfully organized by food. First off, no poutine. WHAT THE HELL, ROGERS CENTRE? Secondly, the food that jumped out at me was "Mediterranean-topped fries." I can offer no more insight on this item, because the only Google result for "Mediterranean-topped fries" is the Rogers Centre concessions page. Speaking of the Mediterranean, lots of Greek food like gyros and souvlaki. What, you haven't heard of the Greek army of Blue Jays fans?

Tropicana Field — Not much of interest here. They have Cuban sandwiches too, but that's less surprising than in Boston (or, as it turns out, Minnesota). They also have "chipsticks," which are potato chips cooked on a wooden skewer that (I guess) you eat like a shish kebab.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards — Their website is worthless, so I had to go to secondary sources for this one, where I found a pretty interesting selection: rockfish tacos, bacon on a stick (everything's better on a stick, if you didn't know), and burgers that have a crab cake on them in addition to the beef.

Progressive Field — My hometown stadium seems a bit more focused on unusual toppings rather than unusual foods. They have barbecue popcorn (or, if that's too working-class for you, cracked pepper and rosemary popcorn), hot dogs with "scallion bacon ketchup," and broccoli pizza.

Kauffman Stadium — One concourse offers "five artisan sausages with all the fixings (be still, my beating heart!)" Sheboygan bratwurst (over the objections of the Milwaukee Brewers, I assume) and "Espinaca and chips," which I learn just means chips with spinach dip. Their website really makes you work to find the food.

Comerica Park — This is the most boring selection of offerings yet. The only interesting items were at the "Brushfire Grill" and included turkey legs and black bean burgers.

U.S. Cellular Field — Now this is more like it. They have "vienna beef burgers" (does that mean it's made of the same type of meat as vienna sausages? Most of you are grimacing at the thought, but I'm all over it), peanut butter and jelly sandwiches (Genius! That'll entice the kids. Why has no other ballpark thought of that?), and corned beef sandwiches.

Target Field — Looks like I saved the weirdest, and possibly the best, for last. Here, we have a $9 "mega meatball," several Food Network-branded items that all sound good (bacon sloppy joes, buffalo chicken mac-and-cheese, etc.), and walleye skewers, which is exactly what it sounds like.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:19 PM | Comments (0)

January 23, 2013

Can Bulls Contend For the East?

One of my favorite sports commercials from the past year or so is Adidas' "Return of D Rose" spot.

It begins with TNT's Kevin Harlan saying, "Holding on to his knee, holding on to his knee, and down...," amidst a forlorn, dark Chicago skyline with storm clouds overhead. It continues with the black and red-clad residents of the city in a slow-motion shock after the news that Derrick Rose had torn his ACL in the fourth quarter of the first NBA playoff game of 2012 against Philadelphia. Then the point guard is shown rehabbing his knee, leading to the point of his triumphant return to the United Center court.

The ad is quite the dramatization. All of the residents of the nation's third-largest city and metropolitan area didn't stop what they were doing to mourn the injury of the city's best athlete. But subtext underlying the ad is clear – and accurate: without Rose on the Bulls, the team was a fraction of its former self with its title chances extinguished in a split-second. And without Rose for the start of the 2012-13 season, the Bulls would need to be saved by the high school product of the Windy City.

Another fictionalized part of the ad is that it debuted about a month before the season. To an uninitiated viewer of the NBA or someone who knew little about the extensive rehab related to an ACL tear, one would be led to believe that Rose would be ready for the start of the upcoming campaign. As of yet, Rose hasn't returned to practice for the Bulls.

Therefore, the Bulls should be a mess at the midpoint of the season. Without Rose, one would figure Chicago would barely have enough offense to compete with the Sacramentos and Charlottes of the world, much less established Eastern Conference teams like Miami and Boston. Before the season, a general consensus among NBA experts and commentators was that the Bulls would do well to tread water at or around the last couple playoff spots in the East.

Yet here they are, through 40 games of the season at press time with a 24-16 record, good enough for fifth place in the conference and a mere three games behind Miami. When Rose is cleared for full contact practice in the coming days and has his inevitable return soon after, expectations will rise for Chicago.

But will Chicago's level of play with Rose jump to the point where the Bulls can compete for the Eastern Conference title?

Of course, it's impossible to tell for sure right now. Rose, when healthy, was the league's premier player at beating his man off the dribble and finishing at the rim. His explosiveness was unparalleled, as was his ability to change direction at impossible angles. Conventional wisdom says, at the very least, Rose will be more cautious with his often-helter-skelter style. The 2011 MVP might even come back with his much-maligned jump shot and 3-point shot improved in anticipation of being a less explosive player.

However, I have to wonder if perhaps the actual ACL injury in sports is becoming less of a catastrophic event than it was even half a decade ago. It used to be the case that a player was certain to miss a full calendar year with an ACL tear, and then would very unlikely be the player he was before the injury. But in 2013, sports fans have just watched Adrian Peterson, a player at a similar level of his sport with comparable prodigious gifts to Rose, complete perhaps the greatest full-season performance an NFL running back has ever delivered. Furthermore, Peterson came back from his injury in roughly the same number of months as Rose will ultimately come back from his.

Sure, basketball is a game with more jumping and direct vertical movement on the ACL than football, but Peterson was just one awkward and/or dirty forceful hit on the knee from being injured again. The fact that Rose is ahead of schedule from his originally prescribed post-All-Star break return also bodes well.

As big a boost as Rose should provide, some of the focus when discussing the Bulls needs to be on the team that is nearly on pace for 50 wins without Rose. And while Rose in many ways has defined the Bulls of the last few seasons, it's been Chicago's team identity that has spurred an 8-3 record in January.

As one would expect from a Tom Thibodeau-coached team, the Bulls have one of the best defenses in the NBA. Chicago allows just 1.01 points per possession, good enough for fourth in the league behind only the Pacers, Grizzlies and Spurs. Their field goal defense is where the defense has shined the most, registering a 46.2 effective field goal percentage (a measure that weights 3-pointers accurately as opposed to traditional field goal percentage).

On offense, the Bulls struggle a bit relative to the rest of the league, but their extremely low points per game average can be largely attributed to playing at the league's fifth-slowest pace. Still, the team gets to the line often, and successfully shares the ball more without Rose.

Joakim Noah has been as ferocious as ever and the cerebral Luol Deng has upped his scoring output this year. But the once-frustrating Carlos Boozer is playing as well at an all-around level as he ever has in a Bulls uniform. While the power forward is averaging over 20 points and 10 rebounds in games played in 2013, his defense has improved from its sometimes indifferent past. Nate Robinson has been a spark plug off the bench and Marco Bellinelli, the hero last Friday against the Celtics has also been valuable.

The Eastern Conference still goes through Miami, Chicago's predominant nemesis in the league for the past two-and-a-half seasons. But if the Bulls can play at their physical best, and Rose comes back and can return to a superlative level of play, Chicago stands a strong chance at being a contender in 2013.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 4:14 PM | Comments (0)

Super Bowl XLVII Proposition Bets

1. Winner: Baltimore/San Francisco
2. Versus spread: Baltimore (+4½)/San Francisco (-4½)
3. Total points (game): over/under 49½
4. Total points (1st quarter): over/under 9½
5. Total points (2nd quarter): over/under 13½
6. Total points (3rd quarter): over/under 9½
7. Total points (4th quarter): over/under 13½
8. Versus spread (halftime): Baltimore (+2½)/San Francisco (-2½)
9. Number of team captains (both teams) at midfield for coin toss: over/under 8½
10. National anthem: a cappella/accompanied by music
11. Length of national anthem (from start of lyrics): over/under 1:34½
12. Alicia Keys: standing/sitting at piano for start of national anthem
13. Winner of coin toss: Ravens/49ers
14. Coin toss called: heads/tails
15. Coin toss result: heads/tails
16. 49ers to: kick/receive
17. First possession begins at yard line: over/under 20½
18. First play from scrimmage: run/pass
19. Yards gained on first play from scrimmage: over/under 4
20. First 49ers pass: complete/incomplete
21. First Ravens pass: complete/incomplete
22. First penalty called on: offense/defense
23. Yardage length of first accepted penalty: over/under 5½
24. Joe Flacco passing yardage: over/under 257½
25. Flacco turnovers: over/under 1½
26. Colin Kaepernick passing yardage: over/under 249½
27. Kaepernick turnovers: over/under 1½
28. Vernon Davis receiving yards: over/under 66½
29. Frank Gore rushing yards: over/under 74½
30. Anquan Boldin receptions: over/under 4½
31. Torrey Smith receiving yards: over/under 70½
32. Ray Lewis tackles: over/under 12½
33. Aldon Smith sacks: over/under ½
34. Justin Smith tackles: over/under 4½
35. Patrick Willis tackles for losses: over/under ½
36. Andy Lee total punt average: over/under 51.9½
37. Kaepernick rushes + Flacco completions: over/under 27½
38. Michael Crabtree touchdowns: over/under ½
39. Randy Moss receiving yards minus receptions: over/under 52½
40. Justin Tucker point-after-touchdown conversions: over/under 2½
41. David Akers missed field goals: over/under ½
42. Gore rushing touchdowns: over/under ½
43. First team to score: Ravens/49ers
44. Points of first score: over/under 3½
45. Yardage length of first Baltimore touchdown: over/under 9½
46. Yardage length of first San Francisco touchdown: over/under 11½
47. Jersey number of first Raven to score a touchdown: over/under 81½
48. Jersey number of first 49er to score a touchdown: over/under 21½
49. First touchdown: pass/rush
50. Defensive/special teams touchdowns (both teams): over/under½
51. Coaches challenges: over/under 1½
52. Two-point conversion attempts: over/under ½
53. Total points (halftime): over/under 24½
54. Add total points at halftime; sum is: odd/even
55. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (1st half): over/under 1:58½
56. Length of longest Tucker field goal: over/under 41½
57. Total yards (both teams): over/under 709½
58. First Harbaugh to be interviewed after end of second quarter: John/Jim
59. Baltimore third-down efficiency: over/under 37.66½%
60. San Francisco third-down efficiency: over/under 38.47½%
61. Missed field goals: over/under ½
62. Baltimore first downs: over/under 23½
63. San Francisco first downs: over/under 22½
64. Baltimore penalties: over/under 5½
65. San Francisco penalties: over/under 5½
66. Tie score at any point in fourth quarter: yes/no
67. Largest lead at any point in game: over/under 7½
68. Attendance: over/under 73,279½
69. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (2nd half): over/under 1:59½
70. Points scored in last two minutes of game: over/under 7½
71. Time outs called in last two minutes of game: over/under 2½
72. Jersey number of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 5½
73. Letters in last name of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 6½
74. Duration of game: over/under 3:19
75. Referee's jersey number: over/under 71½
76. Baltimore time of possession: over/under 28:33½
77. San Francisco time of possession: over/under 32:27½

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:05 AM | Comments (0)

January 22, 2013

Super Bowl XLVII Preview

Five Quick Hits

* RIP Stan Musial. One of the 10 or 15 greatest baseball players in history, and perhaps the most decent man and admirable superstar in the history of professional sports.

* Both home teams were shut out in the second half on Sunday. That's weird enough even if you forget that they were the highest and 7th-highest-scoring teams in the NFL.

* Both Super Bowl teams are pretty healthy right now. I wish that made less difference, that it was just the best teams and not those with the fewest injuries. Heaven help us if Roger Goodell forces through an 18-game schedule.

* Memo to Jim Nantz: Frenchy Fuqua was right next to Jack Tatum. I'm pretty sure the player who actually caught the Immaculate Reception was some guy named Franco.

* Congratulations to this year's Walter Payton Man of the Year Award finalists: Larry Fitzgerald, Joe Thomas, and Jason Witten. It is weird and unseemly, though, that once again two of the three finalists are white. The NFL is something like 80% black.

* Click to view odds on the rest of the games with our partner, SportsBetting.ag.

***

After Sunday night's loss, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick declined to speak to CBS. Shannon Sharpe contrasted Belichick's refusal with the graciousness of other coaches, and I suspect he spoke for many fans when he said that kind of behavior "makes it easy to root against" New England. That seems reasonable, but I also understand Belichick's decision. He's not a real amiable guy to begin with, and he's an intense competitor who was probably in a very bad mood when the interview was requested. I've always felt that immediate interviews with losing players and coaches are kind of mean, borderline inappropriate. Would CBS or its viewers really gain anything by hearing Belichick grunt terse responses and platitudes about how the other team played better? I don't think so.

And Sharpe's perspective is totally different from Belichick's. Sharpe is not only extraverted, but nearly exhibitionist. He has always loved public attention and has never turned away from a camera. Belichick comes off as a hermit. He clearly is not a people person, and would probably decline all media interaction if he could. Belichick is not a great interview even when his team wins. Sharpe is upset as a member of the media, and on a personal level he can't relate to Belichick's decision. I understand his frustration, but I don't think he made any effort to put himself in the coach's position, and I don't have any problem with Belichick's refusal to do an interview five minutes after falling one game short of the Super Bowl.

Conference Championship Roundups

49ers 28, Falcons 24

For the second week in a row, Atlanta couldn't hold a lead. Up 20-0 over the Seahawks, they fell apart in the second half and trailed with under 1:00 to play. Up 17-0 against the 49ers, they didn't score in the second half and lost a home playoff game for the second time in the last three seasons.

I like Boomer Esiason, but he said something loony on the CBS postgame show, calling Colin Kaepernick's performance "maybe the best game that you'll ever see a second-year player play in a big spot." The 49ers totaled -2 yards in the first quarter. Atlanta wideout Julio Jones had more yards in the first 10:00 than Kaepernick did in the first 30:00. He had a nice second half and a good overall game, but hardly the best ever by a young player.

What made Boomer's comment especially strange was that when he said it, Tom Brady had just finished playing. Brady was a second-year player when the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVI. The other thing that made Boomer's comment so strange was that when he said it, Dan Marino was in the same room. In the 1984 AFC Championship Game — an equally "big spot" — Marino passed for 421 yards and 4 TDs in a 45-28 Miami victory. I could go on (Marcus Allen, Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, etc.), but you'd think Brady and Marino in particular might have come to mind. I sometimes wonder if everyone else at CBS hates Marino.

The Falcons outgained San Francisco by over 100 yards, but the Niners strung most of their offensive productivity into scoring drives, and went 4/5 in the red zone. The comeback, which might be more aptly viewed as Atlanta's collapse, included a 17-0 deficit, a double-digit halftime lead for the home team, and a scoreless second half by a team that averaged more than 26 points per game.

Ravens 28, Patriots 13

Both the Ravens and Patriots reached the red zone four times. The Ravens scored touchdowns on all four drives. The Patriots got one touchdown, two field goals, and a failed fourth-down conversion. New England didn't capitalize on opportunities, turning what should have at least been a close game into a fairly comfortable Baltimore victory.

On average, NFL teams score approximately 1 point for each 15 yards of offense. The Patriots led the league this season, with 1 point per 12.3 yards. Against the Ravens, New England gained 428 yards and scored just 13 points — 33 yards per point, almost three times their season average. The Patriots repeatedly settled for short field goals (25 and 31 yards) and short punts (three from Baltimore territory, two inside the 40). They had four 4th-quarter possessions, and all ended in turnovers, each of the last three inside the Raven 25-yard line. You can't blow half a dozen scoring opportunities and expect to win a playoff game.

Joe Flacco should not be the story here. Baltimore's defense won this game. New England had the league's best offense this season, leading the NFL in points, yardage, and first downs. The Patriots scored 30 points or more 10 times, and more than 40 five times. The Ravens held them to a season-low 13. The last time the Patriots scored so few points in a game was Week 2 of 2009 (at Jets). The last time they scored so little at home was 2008, when the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers held the Matt Cassel-led Pats to 10. With Tom Brady, you have to go back to 2006. That's more than six years ago. That's how well Baltimore's defense played.

Before this game, Brady was 67-0 at home with a halftime lead. I believe that Baltimore safety Bernard Pollard has now hurt the Patriots franchise more than any other player in history. More than Don Maynard, Dan Marino, Desmond Howard, Peyton Manning, Ray Lewis, anybody. In 2008, New England was coming off an undefeated regular season. But in Week 1, Pollard injured Tom Brady, and the Matt Cassel-led Patriots went 11-5 but missed the playoffs. Twice that year, they lost by 3. It seems conservative to guess that with a healthy Brady, the Pats might have gone 13-3 and earned the top seed in the AFC playoffs. They probably would have been Super Bowl favorites.

In 2009, a hit from Pollard injured Wes Welker. The team went 10-3 with Welker, but 0-4 without him, including the only time a Belichick/Brady team has lost in the first round of the playoffs. It was Brady's first home loss in more than three years. Last season, Pollard knocked Rob Gronkowski out of the AFC Championship Game, and a clearly hobbled Gronk was little more than a decoy in Super Bowl XLVI. He had 8 catches, 101 yards, and a touchdown when the Pats and Giants met in the regular season, but without him, New England managed just 17 points and lost by 4.

This weekend, Pollard KO-ed Stevan Ridley, and the ensuing fumble from an unconscious Ridley may have been the turning point. Ridley never returned to the game, but even more important, a strong New England drive — they'd gained first downs on consecutive plays, and Ridley gained eight before the knockout — turned into Baltimore's best starting field position of the game and led to the clinching touchdown. That's the 2008, '09, '11, and '12 seasons that Pollard torpedo-ed for New England. Subtract those four hits, and I believe the Patriots win at least one more Super Bowl.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XLVII: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans, Louisiana
February 3, 2013

Last year, both Harbaugh brothers came up one game short of the Super Bowl. This year, they're both on their way to New Orleans for the big game. That angle is genuinely interesting, but if you read, watch, or listen to much sports media, it will become tiresome in under 48 hours. It's two weeks before they finally play the game.

BALTIMORE ON OFFENSE

You'll hear a lot in the next two weeks about how much Joe Flacco has improved, that he's now one of the great QBs in the NFL. As Diamond Joe Biden would say, that's a bunch of stuff. Flacco is Trent Dilfer 12 years later. This season, he ranked 14th in passing yards, tied for 15th in TDs, and 14th in passer rating. Isn't that, uh, average? Even if you want to evaluate Flacco purely on the last two games, which is nuts, he only completed half his passes against the Broncos, and only played well in the second half against New England. He's not a bad player, but he's much closer to average than great.

Anquan Boldin is the best player on this offense, followed by Ray Rice. Torrey Smith is a wild card, a deep threat who can't be ignored, and Bernard Pierce has shined splitting time with Rice. Smith is particularly interesting because the 49ers had so many problems with speedy Julio Jones, but I question how much Rice and Pierce will be able to do against San Francisco's 4th-ranked run defense (94 yds/gm, 3.7 yds/att).

The Ravens scored 38 in the overtime win over Denver, and 28 against New England this week, but the Niners have the best defense they've faced all season, and the same openings won't be there. I'd look for a performance that more closely resembles the divisional game against the Broncos: big plays mixed in among short drives that go nowhere. I don't think Baltimore will gain 20 first downs, so big plays will be critical. Rice and Smith are the home run hitters, though on third down or near the goal line, Boldin should be the first option.

SAN FRANCISCO ON OFFENSE

We all probably need to be more careful equating running QBs to one another. Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Michael Vick, and Russell Wilson are five different people. But both Griffin and Vick had big games against the Ravens this season, and Baltimore lost both games. Kaepernick presents defenses with some of the same problems.

The Ravens' best chance is to keep Kaepernick in the pocket and make him win as a passer. He's certainly capable of that, as he showed against Atlanta (16/21, 127.1 rating) and in the regular season (league-best 8.3 yds/att), but the Falcons kept things much closer than the Packers did. You can't let him be a runner. Really, if the Ravens can contain Kaepernick and do what they did against New England, they'll have a good chance: bend, don't break. Stiffen up on third down and in the red zone, make the 49ers settle for field goal attempts.

For San Francisco, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis become the weapons who can break this game open. Frank Gore and LaMichael James should find openings with the defense worried about Kaepernick, but Crabtree and Davis and maybe even Randy Moss are the ones who can really break this game open. Davis in particular presents a matchup problem, because he's too fast for a linebacker or safety to cover, and too strong for most corners to bring him down one-on-one. He occasionally seems to disappear, though, so Baltimore will want to work its blitzes to make him a blocker.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The edge here is probably Baltimore's. The Ravens suffered two embarrassing coverage meltdowns against Baltimore in the divisional playoff, and San Francisco punter Andy Lee is an All-Pro, but David Akers has been terribly shaky on field goals, and Jacoby Jones scored three return TDs this season. Jones makes too many bad decisions for my taste, but one big return could blow this game open.

THE FORECAST

We see over and over again that turnovers determine games, and I have a little more faith in the Ravens than the Niners to protect the ball. But I also believe the 49ers have a better overall offense, and a better overall defense.

If they win, it will be with smart, explosive play from Kaepernick. He can commit one turnover and they'll overcome that, but if he throws multiple picks or takes a bunch of sacks, they'll be in trouble. Instead, he has to make plays with his arm and his feet, and he can't let Davis become a non-factor. Gore will take advantage of openings, and James might break a long run at some point. Crabtree keeps the chains moving, and the line keeps Kaepernick clean. Defensively, Aldon Smith keeps enough pressure on Flacco that long plays don't have time to develop, and the great linebacking corps keeps Ray Rice bottled up.

If the Ravens win, you'll see big plays on offense, including at least one touchdown from Torrey Smith. But Baltimore wins this game with defense, and maybe special teams. Akers could miss a couple field goals, or Jones could break a long return. Kaepernick could throw a pick-six or lose a fumble, or maybe Bernard Pollard injures everybody. But the 49ers can't put drives together, and when they get close they can't find the end zone. The Ravens proved this weekend that they can hold a potent offense to field goals and win.

The Ravens haven't faced a defense like this, and they've struggled against dual-threat QBs like Kaepernick. Ray Lewis goes out with a loss, and the 49ers win their sixth Super Bowl, 27-20.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:17 PM | Comments (1)

January 21, 2013

NFL's Newest Lawsuit Need Not Dim Light on Former Players

It has now been well documented throughout both the sports world and the business world that the National Football League has enjoyed unprecedented growth in revenue as a professional sports league, and most notably in the past decade.

And as the NFL approaches a $10 billion annual take, its largely billionaire team owners have grown quite accustomed to such returns becoming routine and continuing infinitum.

But a wave of lawsuits against the NFL, well publicized in the past many months, may not only put a crimp in future revenue for the NFL, but also in how the rules of the game could ultimately be revised.

My original intent for this article was to follow-up on the piece written in February 2009, entitled "NFL and Retirees Remain in Tussle on Benefits," regarding the status of the disability benefits of NFL retirees prior to 1993.

But the issue of neurocognitive disorders and the NFL's liability has since then surfaced with a vengeance, and cannot be ignored. And as the result of chronic blows to the head, possible brain injuries during the course an NFL career could be decided by the courts.

However, such an issue should not be discussed without acknowledging the plight of the players of the past, who still largely continue to go without; those players still suffering from a variety of disabilities without adequate compensation to cover escalating medical costs and living expenses. Yet such players formed the foundation of the NFL as we know it today.

And such new focus by the NFL, NFLPA, and other players from the past, as well as those currently active, with their concern of cognitive disorders, has led to placing the original retiree complainants on the back-burner once again. However, in order to establish liability for a variety of brain disorders, scientific medical data confirmation requires more research.

Citing public opinion, both factual and otherwise, that concussions of players over the course of an NFL career is given to chronic cognitive disorders prior to or after they retire, has led to no less than 113 lawsuits filed against the NFL and by extension against its teams and owners.

Such lawsuits were primarily filed in both federal and state courts by mid-2012 after the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was ratified in 2011 between the NFL and the NFLPA.

It seems that the CBA of 2011 has only made the relationship between the NFL and the NFLPA even more contentious, with issues such as the NFL still pushing for an 18-game season and the already CBA mandated testing of Human Growth Hormone (HGH) unresolved.

But many disabled and retired players of past generations, or pre-1993, feel like they are still on the outside looking in, with neither the NFL nor the NFLPA doing their bidding for better pensions and health care benefits for them, and essentially left with no representation at all.

Even though the Legacy Fund was formed as the result of the 2011 CBA, whereby the NFL and the NFLPA contribute $300 million dollars each over the next 10 years, for the pre-1993 retirees its mechanism of distribution and how the health care and disability costs will be administered for these "old guys" remains to be seen. It largely remains a paint-by-numbers approach to setting up a retirement fund in a rather arbitrary fashion. And the average monthly additional benefit totals only $1,000.00.

The legality of such a retirement fund without specific designation as to how it will be distributed for health care or hardship in addition to a pension, could conceivably result in another lawsuit. To wit, the wives or heirs of these pre-1993 players were entirely cut out of Legacy Fund benefits if their spouses were deceased prior to the date of the ratification of the 2011 CBA.

Meanwhile, of the dozens of other lawsuits against the NFL, approximately 80 have been thus far consolidated in the U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Pennsylvania, and quite a few other individual suits have been filed there and in other jurisdictions, as well. The largest suit, which represents over 2,000 litigants, is representative of the nearly 4,000 total litigants of former players; some of whom played in various decades.

The suits versus the NFL, in most cases, also includes the NFL's exclusive helmet manufacturer, Riddell, Inc., as a defendant. They allege that, "The NFL had a duty to acknowledge and address the risks of neurological injury, but instead deliberately and fraudulently ignored and concealed this information from its players."

The basis of the lawsuits stems from the NFL's initiative in 1994 to create the Mild Traumatic Brain Injury (MTBI) Committee. Then NFL-commissioner Paul Tagliabue intended to supposedly study the impact of head injuries on players. The lawsuits, however, intend to prove that the MTBI Committee deliberately published falsified findings, which stated that no long-term negative health consequences were associated as the direct result of concussions sustained by NFL players.

At the time, the MTBI made the conclusion that hits to the head by football players is dissimilar to those of a prize fighter who might sustain repeated blows to the head over an hour or so rather than in many games spread out over the course of several seasons.

And because the NFL settled several lawsuits in the late 1990s and early 2000s, such as the one with Hall of Famer Mike Webster, who was found to be totally and permanently disabled due to head injury and who died at age 50 in 2002, legal experts believe that they may have found the smoking gun, as those settled suits implicate the NFL.

The present litigation contends that the NFL ignored all fathom of medical research that showed concussions were linked to significant neurocognitive brain injuries. And in hindsight, the NFL opened up a veritable Pandora's Box of linkage to brain injury when it formed its MTBI Committee back in 1994, whether or not some believe that it did so for sinister reasons.

One of the reasons that the issue of the present lawsuits remain important, however, is that the NFL, the NFLPA, teams, coaches, and even present and former players may all be guilty of disseminating misinformation for a variety of reasons, both good and bad. And medical research will need to catch up with the necessary evidence of cause and effect regarding brain injury in order to dispel any inconsistencies or inaccuracies. We owe it to all of the injured players to get it right.

And those players impaired as the direct result of having played football, with challenges other than that of a brain injury may ultimately lose out to the big payday that class-action attorneys will celebrate; litigators could very well do more damage to other disabled retirees, leaving interest in funding their health care needs in shambles, if not suffering from a brain injury; not to mention leaving the game of football itself shattered.

If we go back prior to the 2011 CBA, we find pre-1993 NFL retirees who have been battling the NFLPA for years and years for only their fair share of benefits. They simply wanted long-overdue disability compensation and better medical care coverage.

These are the players who never profited from the tremendous guaranteed signing bonuses and salaries enjoyed by players today. Some had to work in other occupations in the offseason, as many made somewhere between $5,000-$35,000 a year.

The amount of salary that players presently receive has grown exponentially from $1.86 billion in 1999 to $4 billion in 2009, alone. And players today, or post-1993 retirees, receive an Annuity Plan benefit and additional access to the Second Career Savings Plan to assist in their retirement.

In addition, as part of the 2011 CBA, a Neurocognitive Benefit Plan was established for post-1994 vested players. It will provide a minimum of $1,500 per month for a mild impairment, and then escalates from there based upon the severity of the injury. The neurocognitive benefit would be in addition to any physical disability benefit or pension benefit for which the player might qualify.

So, if we add up today's guaranteed signing bonuses, salaries, personal endorsements, in addition to a bevy of retirement benefits, today's players are in a far more lucrative position to care for their futures than were their predecessors. But rather than begrudge today's players, the question should be asked, why does such a large disparity exist for the health care and quality of life benefits for pre-1993 players as opposed to today's?

The NFLPA has all but disengaged itself from the old timers, and historically has never had the backs of any of them. So, the mere additional crumbs that the Legacy Fund provides might prove too little too late, as time literally runs out for these players.

And the NFLPA may rue the day that it agreed to open the floodgates for any and every kind of head injury, implying that such injuries are the cause of every cognitive disorder of aging players. For such legal claims may become inevitable and could eventually bankrupt the game of professional and amateur football going forward.

In the interim, the NFL, including the NFPLA, will continue to fracture from within such as: the pitting of generations of players against one another; the prioritizing benefits for cognitive disorders over others such as orthopedic or arthritic disease; changing current game rules to new ones without comprehensive analysis; NFL health protocols challenging the NCAAs — its minor leagues — rather than the collaborative effort of both.

And the NFLPA could potentially face legal liability for traumatic brain injury for its failure to protect its own membership.

But to blur the picture — by the media, the NFL, the NFLPA, and the legal experts — and to not make a clear distinction between the pre-1993 disabled NFL retirees and those post-1993, is but a disservice. And in light of these recent lawsuits, it but adds more salt to the wounds of these elder players; seemingly cast aside, time and time again.

And not unlike the federal government, which has become the master of the art of deception, derision and dominance of its constituents, the NFL and the NFLPA have attempted the same such feats. And their ideology that football remains "just a game" is disingenuous at best.

If indeed the NFL as well as the NFLPA claim that players' health remains of the utmost concern, then both entities should begin with the bedrock of the game — its heroes of yesteryear — before it is too late.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 11:37 AM | Comments (0)

Tennis' Late Bloomers

Tennis is a sport where you have to be young to succeed, or so we are always told. You need to start learning very young and make the transition to the bigger stage as quickly as you can if you are ever going to reach the top.

Most notably, there has always been a "rule" that stated if you hadn't won your first grand slam by the time you were 21, you wouldn't go on to win any more. Rafael Nadal won his first at 19, Novak Djokovic at 20, and Roger Federer at 21. They have all gone on to win many slams.

But there are a fair few who buck that trend.

The most notable of all these exceptions is Ivan Lendl, who won his first grand slam at the fifth time of asking at the 1984 French Open, at the "advanced" age of 24. Down two sets and a break, it looked like an inevitability that John McEnroe would win yet another slam, and his first French Open title. However it was not to be, as Lendl's experience allowed him to battle back, take control, and ultimately win.

The next big exception is Tim Henman. As a youngster, "Tiger" Tim showed exceptional talent, with a consistent serve, and solid, stylish play off both sides and was, for a time, the best volleyer in the game. Henman was the classic Brit, with his serve-volley style of play, and his quick feet made him exceptionally good on the grass courts of Wimbledon and fast indoor courts. He never reached a grand slam final, but was very consistent at a high level, reaching six grand slam semifinals, and was ranked among the top players for a long time, particularly towards the end of his career, where, under the guidance of Paul Annacone, he began to master the clay courts, and truly challenged on all surfaces. He won his only significant title, the Paris Masters in 2003, at the age of 29.

Now for a current player — Janko Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic seemed to be a safe bet for a grand slam champion when he turned pro, not long after winning the 2001 Junior Australian Open, but he did little afterwards, and for many years failed to shine. He only broke into the top 20 at the age of 27, but sharply rose to break into the top 10. Now sitting ranked 9th in the world, just one spot off his career high of 8, he is hitting his prime not too long before he reaches 29 years of age.

Austrian left-hander Jürgen Melzer was for a long time known as the best man not to get past the third round of a grand slam. It was not until he was 29 at the French Open in 2010 that he broke his duck, going all the way to the semifinals before losing to eventual champion and then four-time champion Rafael Nadal. His greater achievements came in doubles play, however, as he went on to win the 2010 Wimbledon men's doubles a month later, along with the 2011 U.S. Open men's doubles and the 2011 Wimbledon mixed doubles at the age of 30.

Mardy Fish is another who capped off an average career with a sparkling finish. Fish had always been struggling to find consistent performances, and his game was too flawed to provide much difficulty for world-class opposition, but in 2011, he shed the bulk of weight that had hampered him throughout his career and put together a string of performances of sharp-serving and heavy-hitting that took him to a career high of 7, a month before his 30th birthday. His greatest achievements will surely be seen as his qualification for the World Tour Finals, and overtaking Andy Roddick as the No. 1 ranked American.

And of course, how can this list be written without tagging on the name of Andy Murray? For years he was touted as the best player never to win a grand slam. He reached three major finals without victory, and it always appeared as though he did not have enough firepower in his arsenal to make that final step. But 2012 brought the appearance of the man at the top of this list, Ivan Lendl, who had failed to win in his first four finals.

With Lendl as coach, Murray's game became more aggressive, and, after having reached the Wimbledon final and again failing to jump the last hurdle, there was a watershed moment, and Murray could not look back. Four weeks later, he thrashed Roger Federer in straight sets on the very same court in the Olympics to win the gold medal, and then went on to outclass Novak Djokovic in five grueling sets in the U.S. Open final to win his first major title at the age of 24. From this position, and at this age, only Lendl has gone on to win any more slams, but time is on Murray's side as his game continues to improve, and any potential successors seem few and far between.

Finally, how can this list be complete without the best Croatian to play the game? Goran Ivanisevic is the greatest example of a late bloomer in tennis. His early career was promising, but every time he came close to that elusive major title, it slipped through his fingers. In terms of grand slam achievements, he was in much the same boat as Murray for the majority of his career. He reached three Wimbledon finals without winning and was, at that time, the best player yet to win a slam, and, at almost 30, and ranked 125 in the world, it looked as though it would never happen. He had been ranked as highly as No. 2, at the age of 22, but never made the final step. He had saved his best till last, however, as he accepted a wild card into Wimbledon, before resolutely beating anyone in his way, en route to one of the most memorable Wimbledon finals to date. Just two months shy of 30, and he made his last achievement his best.

Get the latest Wimbledon betting odds at Betfair.com!

Posted by Angus Saul at 10:02 AM | Comments (2)

January 17, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Conf. Championships

Note: he quotes in this article are fictional.

San Francisco @ Atlanta (+3)

San Francisco is back in the NFC championship game after smashing the Packers, 45-31, in the divisional round. Colin Kaepernick threw for 2 touchdowns and rushed for 181 yards and two scores.

"Colin runs like the wind," Jim Harbaugh said. "And the Packers' defense blows like the wind. I imagine Green Bay will address that issue this offseason, probably by giving Dom Capers a change of address.

"Colin may be the NFL's best athlete. With apologies to Robert Griffin III, Kaepernick is indeed black enough. You probably noticed that Colin likes to kiss his arm after a touchdown. If Alex Smith still doubts my decision, he can do likewise, and kiss his ass goodbye.

The top-seeded Falcons will host the 49ers after nipping the visiting Seahawks, 30-28. Matt Bryant's 49-yard field goal with eight seconds left put the Falcons in the NFC title game for the first time since 2004.

"We gave everything we had," Matt Ryan said. "We tried our best, for three quarters to win the game, and for one to lose it. Luckily, Pete Carroll called a time out to 'ice' Bryant, who was again clutch for us. He's got ice water in his veins, and a huge pair of cubes. It feels great to get a playoff win under my belt. Two more wins, and I'll be able to wear a belt.

"Our defense has a difficult task in front of them, and that's stopping Kaepernick. The read option offense is like Tim Tebow — it's the next big thing that will undoubtedly turn out to not be the next big thing. We've got a trick up our sleeves to defend Kaepernick that surprisingly slipped the Packers' mind; it's called tackling him."

Can the Falcons stop Kaepernick? Possibly, but their attempts to do so may open up big plays in the passing game for the 49ers? Remember, Randy Moss still has speed, and Jim Harbaugh has discovered the secret to harnessing what's left of Moss' talent — when he tells Moss to "show his ass," Moss understands that to mean "get behind" the defense.

On defense, the 49ers know they can't stop both Roddy White and Julio Jones, so they have a choice to make. White has a big game at the expense of Jones, as constant double-teaming by San Fran renders Julio a "Silent J."

Kaepernick throws for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns, one to Moss, and the 49ers outgun Ryan and the Falcons.

San Francisco wins, 29-24.

Baltimore @ New England (-7½)

The Ravens advanced to their second consecutive AFC title game with a thrilling 38-35 double overtime win in Denver. Joe Flacco passed for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns, including scoring strikes of 59, 32, and 70 yards.

"We stole that one," Joe Flacco said. "The game will likely go down in playoff annals as 'The Mile Heist.' Surprisingly, the mile-high altitude in Denver played to our advantage, because we went 'over the top' all day. They were lacking it on Sunday, but I expect Denver will finally get some 'safety help' this offseason.

"My ultimate goal is a Super Bowl title, and we're one step closer. I want that ring in a bad way. If Tom Brady is 'The Lord of the Rings,' then I guess people would call me 'Gollum.' Hopefully, that's not for my looks. I've been to the playoffs in each of my five years in the league, but I've yet to win the big one. Some literary types call that 'The Habit.'"

New England cruised into the conference championship with a dominant 41-28 win over the Texans. Last year, the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl with a 24-21 win over the Ravens.

"Thanks to the Texans," Tom Brady said, "we had a home playoff game. Thanks to the Broncos, we'll host the AFC championship. Playing in altitude does not appeal to most people. On the other hand, Rex Ryan thinks 5,280 feet are quite sexy.

"Sunday will be a huge day, especially for Ray Lewis. First of all, it's a rematch of last year's AFC championship, so it will be just like old times. Also on that day, there will be some business going down in Atlanta that might concern Ray. So it will be just like older times.

"We've prepared for this game like no other. Every detail has been covered. We've left nothing to chance. We even added Billy Cundiff to our roster, because, as the Ravens well know, having Cundiff in Foxboro for the AFC title game all but assures a win for the home team."

After his big game against the Broncos, the Ravens will again be looking for Ray Rice to find rushing success, but the Patriots might have something to say about that, particularly a large nose tackle, in jersey No. 75, who would likely reply, "Vince Wilfork you up."

The Patriots shut down the running game, while Brady and company on offense put ten quick points on the board. Flacco and the Ravens gather their wits and come back behind Torrey Smith, who finds success thanks to the picture of Champ Bailey taped to the inside of his visor. The Pats take a 17-14 lead into halftime.

In the end, the Ravens wilt in the final seven minutes of the game, due to fatigue from their draining win in Denver, and the emotional roller coaster of Lewis' retirement finally comes to a rolling stop.

New England wins, 31-27.

After the game, the Gillette Stadium cheers Lewis' final dance, then pelts the departing icon with hot clam chowder.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 3:43 PM | Comments (0)

Absurdity Surrounds the Time Rule

When the ATP announced in the beginning of the season that it would begin to enforce the rule in regards to the time allowed to players between the points, anyone who recently became a tennis fan probably thought it was bizarre that the governing body of men's tennis that sets the rules of the game would announce that a rule that has existed for years was going to be applied this year.

But if it was not applied properly before this year, why was it listed in the rules? To those of us who have been in the game of tennis, or who have followed tennis closely for many years, it was more than bizarre: it was downright absurd, as if how the rule has been ignored for so long was not comical enough in the first place

It seemed inevitable at the time that it would be the first of many absurdities to follow. It's like having a promising project planned in writing, then never putting it into action for no apparent convincing reason, and finally having to answer to those who see the plan and ask why it was not put into action. In simpler words, when you talk the talk, but don't walk the walk, your talk becomes absurd. The rule itself is initially a good plan, and if the referees walked with it from the beginning, we would have avoided the confusion of today. Unfortunately, the ATP is attempting to walk few years behind the talk, and nobody is certain that it can ever catch up.

The referees in the first tournament of the year in Doha were specifically instructed to tell the players during the coin toss before each match that they would apply the 25-second rule for time between points stricter than before. Did they also remind them that they get a second serve if they miss the first one, or that they lose the point if they miss two serves in a row, or that the long alleys on the sides of the court only matter in doubles? No, because the referees fully enforce those rules, and not "halfway," therefore the players know and accept them.

The otherwise reasonable 25-second rule would have same firm reception had it been enforced from the moment the rule-makers first put it in the rules. Since they did not do that, they are stuck in a catch-up game, except that just like in any other situation where one tries to do the right thing too late, absurdities multiply left and right and don't let you advance straight on your course.

In Doha, Gaël Monfils became one of the early victims of the 25-second rule enforcement, and one could see the astonishment on his face as he was arguing with the referee who was reduced to repeating the same absurd sentence again and again, "it's the rule," as if that has always been enough to give the same penalty to the players in the past. Was it not a rule last year, and the years before that, Mr. Chair Umpire? While you looked so sure of yourself when you responded to Monfils, did you penalize anybody who went over 25 seconds last year, too, when it was still "the rule?"

Apparently one absurd quote perpetuates another, thus Gaël Monfils argued back: "I'm black, so I sweat a lot!" While Lleyton Hewitt, John Isner, and Rafael Nadal may have a few thoughts about Monfils' quote, I will simply let Monfils decide if black players are the only ones having trouble with the 25-second clock.

Other than Monfils, Feliciano Lopez received a penalty at a set point, and the big-serving Isner received a warning as early as his second serving game in Sydney. Needless to say, some disgruntled players complained and, slowly but surely, the ATP realized that enforcing the rule was not going to be a walk on the park.

The uncertainties before the Australian Open led to more absurdities, beginning with Novak Djokovic's response last week to the enforcement of the rule: "I cannot have any complaints when I take more than 20 seconds between the points. If the chair umpire comes to me and said, 'Listen, you should be a little bit more careful about it.' If I do it again, he gives me warning, I can't complain about it. It's within the rules and I will respect it."

But Novak, wait a minute! The rule does not say that if you violate it, the umpire should "come to you" (how exactly, Novak?) and ask "to be more careful." It says that you violated the rule and must receive a warning, and not just a friendly ‘pre-warning', in the same way that the rules say that you will get a foot-fault call if you serve an ace with your feet placed one yard inside the court and not win the point while the referee ‘pre-warns' you in a friendly way that you will receive a foot-fault call "the next time" you do that. So Novak, do you see better now how totally absurd your last sentence sounds after the previous three halfway-absurd ones?

How about the 20-second rule in the Slams vs. the 25-second rule in all other ATP tournaments? First of all, it's absurd that there is a substantial difference in the rule from one men's tournament to another. Is the tennis played on Court 5 of a Slam tournament a different game than the tennis played on Court 2 of a Masters Series tournament? Don't answer that. Second, who in the right mind can possibly expect the players to be ready in 20 seconds during the fourth or fifth sets of a tough match after a long point? Don't answer that, either. Let's simply get back to how one absurdity can perpetuate others.

When the ATP tried to flex its muscle with the "new enforcement" of the "old rule" during the smaller tournaments with Monfils, Isner, and Lopez, most tennis followers knew that they were hoping to send a firm enough message to the players in order to avoid a potential controversy with a top player in the Australian Open. What they did not expect is the resulting disarray caused by the absurd application of an otherwise-needed adjustment. So they hastily took some decisions only to find themselves in a position of being forced to explain one absurd decision with another.

ATP Chief Brad Drewett announced that the ATP will hold talks with the players, which seems absurd considering that the decision to enforce the time-between-the-points rule was enforced by the ATP Player's council just a few weeks ago. Well, we can always hope that the walk will accompany the talk this time around.

A few days ago, Australian Open tournament referee Wayne McEwen announced that the referees would be more "flexible" during the Australian Open with the 20-second rule and added another absurd statement to the already existing ones: "We don't want players out there being penalized after playing a fantastic point, but then again, we don't want players deliberately taking too long and that's what we really look at. We focus on that and tell them to use good common sense, good judgment."

Excuse me, Mr. McEwen, but is that not what you have done in the past anyway? For many years, you never strictly enforced the absurd 20-second rule; your umpires used common sense, and in general, they watched for players deliberately taking too long and tried their best to warn them. It would have been less diplomatic, but more honest if McEwen simply said: "we will ignore the absurd 20-second rule, as we have done in the past." In fact, from watching a number of first-round matches, my occasional clocking of some of the time taken between the points shows that the application of the 20-second rule is no different in 2013 than it was in the previous years. For the most part, players stay around the 20 second-mark; they exceed it here and there; and every now and then, exceed it by a lot. And I have yet to see a time violation call against any player.

Let's face it, anyway: McEwen would do anything to avoid the embarrassment of having to defend the 20-second rule if the umpires penalized one of the top players. Penalizing Isner in the second round of the Sydney tournament is a much easier task than doing it at Rod Laver Arena against Djokovic or Murray.

The ATP can talk all it wants with the players, and can make as many absurd announcements as it wishes. There are only a couple of steps to take for anyone with common sense who desires to leave the absurd domain of the 20/25 second rule chaos: initiate a 25-second (or 30-second) rule over all men's tournaments, and by all means, consistently enforce the rule on every court and every player, without explanations and announcements.

Enjoy the rest of the Australian Open!

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

January 16, 2013

Connecting Top Stars With NFL Futures

While NFL fans fixate on this weekend's upcoming Championship Games, much of the league itself has already turned the page to next season. The annual GM and coaching carousel is approaching its conclusion, staffs are being filled out, and the foundation for a run at next year's Super Bowl is already being built.

Enter the 2013 NFL draft, a season all unto its own.

The goal of draft season isn't to stock your team full of brand new blue chip starters and future Pro Bowlers. Of course that would be nice, but really a successful draft class is made up of a couple of long-term starters, plus some rotational players that build up your depth in case of the inevitable injuries. When you consider each team only has 53 guys on its active roster, and that there are already a ton of guys vying for those spots, there just isn't going to be a whole bunch of room for new guys to come in and dominate.

But just because each team shouldn't count on more than three or four contributors to come out of its next class of rookies doesn't mean that they won't spend thousands of man hours over the next couple of months trying to hit on each and every draft choice, plus a few undrafted free agent long shots.

The draft season gets into full swing this Saturday with the East-West Shrine Game and the inaugural NFL Players Association Collegiate Bowl. Neither might draw your attention as appointment viewing, but consider last year's Shrine Game featured a couple of guys who became major contributors this past NFL season — running back Alfred Morris of the Washington Redskins and kicker Blair Walsh of the Minnesota Vikings principal among them, although it was Illinois' A.J. Jenkins who got drafted the highest, all the way up the first round to the San Francisco 49ers.

So as NFL talent evaluators start building their draft boards, here are some fits between players and NFL teams. These aren't projections, but rather assessments of an NFL team's needs and the players who could help fill them come April.

Texas A&M LT Luke Joeckel - Kansas City Chiefs

Whoever ends up playing quarterback for new Chiefs coach Andy Reid is going to need some help on the offensive line. With Branden Albert a free agent, Kansas City can upgrade the position for the long-term with the 6-foot-6, 310-pound winner of the Outland Trophy. Just think, Joeckel could go from blocking for Johnny Manziel to taking care of Michael Vick.

Notre Dame LB Manti Te'o - Detroit Lions

The problem for the Lions on defense isn't talent. Their problem is they're a bunch of undisciplined yahoos who don't play well as a team defense. Te'o is the kind of player and leader that not only does his job extremely well, but pulls together a team so everybody else becomes better at their jobs. This pick wouldn't just improve one linebacker spot for Detroit. It would improve the other 10 defensive spots right along with it.

USC QB Matt Barkley - New York Jets

Just kidding. This is the exact opposite of a smart decision by the Jets, which means there's at least a 75% chance of it happening. If we're really giving the Jets who they need, it's Georgia LB Alec Ogletree to replace the soon-to-be-cut Bart Scott or Alabama corner Dee Milliner so they can quit depending on 2010 draft bust Kyle Wilson.

Alabama G Chance Warmack - Oakland Raiders

There's no chance the Raiders are taking a guard with the third pick, but they desperately need a total overhaul on the offensive line to go along with the scheme overhaul now that they're fired Greg Knapp, perhaps the worst coordinator hire of the 2011 offseason. Maybe they get lucky and Joeckel falls to them. Otherwise, they need to trade back and pick up Warmack, or pray they can get either of Warmack's line-mates, D.J. Fluker or Barrett Jones, in the second round.

(Oh wait. The Raiders don't have their second-round pick because of that stupid Carson Palmer trade. All the more reason they should move back from the three spot if Joeckel isn't there.)

Georgia DT Johnathan Jenkins - Indianapolis Colts

Picking in the mid-20s, the Colts would probably have to jump a few spots to land Jenkins. They may not want to pay the price, but if there's one thing we know it's that you can't run a successful 3-4 defense without an above average nose tackle. Right now, the Colts don't have that, so Jenkins would fill a critical need in year two of the Chuck Pagano era. The Colts' decision-making will be complicated by the training camp trade of their second-round pick to Miami for cornerback Vontae Davis.

South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore - Atlanta Falcons

Lattimore is obviously damaged goods, which is the only reason he's not going in the top 10. All indications are that Lattimore should be able to recover his pre-injury form, even if he has to sit out next season, and the Falcons are a dominant running game away from being one of the most dynamic offenses over the next 7-10 years. Plus, they can afford to wait on Lattimore. Tight ends Zach Ertz (Stanford) or Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame) would also make sense at the back of the first round as replacements for Tony Gonzalez.

Florida S Matt Elam or LSU S Eric Reid - Dallas Cowboys

If they transition into Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 defense, the Cowboys are going to need a drastic upgrade at safety. If they don't transition to the Tampa 2, they still need a drastic upgrade at safety. Reid is one of those instinctual back-end players who makes your whole secondary better, while Elam showed tremendous heart fighting through the tough loss to Louisville in the Sugar Bowl. The Patriots, Saints and Giants could also really use either guy's services.

North Carolina DT Sylvester Williams - Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins might be in the best position of any team entering the draft thanks to an extra second-rounder (from Indianapolis) and an extra third-rounder (from Chicago). Miami is still building its defensive depth to account for the shift from the 3-4 to a 4-3 base, and Williams would fit very nicely into the interior line with Randy Starks and Tony McDaniel unrestricted free agents. BYU's Ezekiel Ansah would also be an upgrade over miscast Jared Odrick.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:06 PM | Comments (0)

March Madness Starts in January

As we near the end of another NFL football season, we start to feel the blues of what is life after football season. But then March comes and the event called March Madness gets us back on our couches cheering and fist-bumping over our favorite team while keeping our brackets and a pen within arms reach.

So what do we do between now and then? Why not get a head start on what should be a very wide-open race to crown a national champion? January gets going with conference play and some great matchups are on tap nightly. These games in January and February are just as important as the matchups in March and April. It's these games that determine which teams will earn those at large bids and which teams will ride the bubble. Conference tournaments will seed their teams based on the games played in January and February.

The Big Ten conference has some great individual talent. Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin lead the way, but don't count out Minnesota, Ohio State, or Michigan State. The Big Ten should place seven to eight teams in the big dance. The ACC is always strong but North Carolina has disappointed so far while their rival Duke is looking like a contender. Miami and NC State should challenge. Expect at least eight bids from the ACC.

The SEC has Ole Miss, Florida, and Texas A&M on top right now. Kentucky has started slow, but should be playing in March. Only expect to see six teams punching their tickets. The Big 12 has Kansas as a title contender once again. However, their in-state rival Kansas State will challenge for the automatic bid. Both Oklahoma schools, are solid but don't expect more than four or five slots to the Big 12.

UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon head the Pac-12, but don't expect more than five or six teams dancing in March. Washington should get in, but after that it is going to be tough to find another. The Atlantic 10 is very strong this year and will likely send more teams to the tournament than the Pac-12. Butler is there once again along with Virginia Commonwealth. UNC Charlotte is definitely a conference contender, but St. Louis, Temple, St. Joseph, LaSalle, UMass, and Richmond will make a strong push.

Once again the Big East will rule college basketball this year. There are no nights off. DePaul, Providence, and South Florida can pull upsets on any given night. Louisville currently No. 1 and Syracuse lead a loaded conference with some other very good teams in Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, and Cincinnati. Even Rutgers is having a solid season so far. The selection committee will have a difficult time not putting in 11 teams from the Big East.

Then, of course, you have some other schools from smaller conferences that will get in the tournament and go further than most would have thought. These are the so-called bracket busters. Gonzaga used to wear the cinderella tag, but that was long ago. This year's 'Zags team looks poised to make a deep run. Creighton, out of the Missouri Valley Conference, will not be sneaking up on anyone, either. Along with Gonzaga, expect both schools to notch at least a four seed. The MAC, OVC, and Mountain West always seem to spring upsets during the first four days of the tournament.

So get your honey do's finished so you can spend some quality time watching some fantastic college basketball. The season is gearing up and there are at least a dozen teams that have a legitimate shot at being crowned this year's kings of the hardwood.

Posted by Greg Suttich at 1:44 PM | Comments (0)

January 15, 2013

NHL Storylines Heading Into the Season

After months of uncertainty, the NHL is ready to get back where it belongs — out of the boardroom and back on the ice. Based on early reports from fan-attended practices, enthusiasm is high and at least the majority of diehards seem to have forgiven the teams they love. While there will be questions about any lingering damage from the lockout over the next several months, let's focus on the burning questions facing the teams and players as they rush through training camp and prepare to sprint through 48 games.

Is Rick Nash the missing piece in New York?

The 2011-12 season wasn't exactly a boon for goal-scoring in the NHL, but the New York Rangers proved to be on the lower side of things. Built from the net out, there aren't too many questions about the Blueshirts' goaltending or defense. Scoring, though, was an issue last season. Enter power forward Rick Nash, a player who's entering into his prime years after missing out on team success with the Columbus Blue Jackets. On paper, everything fits into place. In reality, though, the Rangers gave up a good amount of depth to get Nash. While none of the departing players can equal Nash in terms of singular talent, it remains to be seen if getting a top-flight forward is off-set by losing character two-way players.

Will Adam Oates succeed in Washington?

After swinging wildly between Bruce Boudreau's run-and-gun system and Dale Hunter's defense-first philosophy, Adam Oates has come to the Washington Capitals with the goal of straddling the line between the two. During exit interviews last season, many Caps players noted that Hunter's obsessive approach to systematic defense may had been extreme in execution, but the point was proven about commitment and sacrifice.

It's up to Oates to harness the raw talent and instincts across the Caps lineup while keeping the discipline learned under Hunter. Considered a bright assistant coach, Oates has his work cut out for him as a rookie head coach — it's a high-risk, high-reward assignment; if Oates can loosen the reins on the Caps without giving up much defensively, you've got a dark-horse candidate for the Jack Adams Award.

Can Edmonton's young guns continue 2012's momentum?

For the past few years, we've been hearing about how all of those high Edmonton Oilers draft picks would create a renaissance for the franchise — think of a re-cast Wayne Gretzky/Jari Kurri/Mark Messier minus the mullets. It hasn't lived up to the hype and it most likely will never approach the dizzying heights of the 1980s Oilers squads. However, while the rest of the NHL was in a lockout, the Oilers key players were lighting up the AHL with the Oklahoma City Barons. Also, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was awarded as the top forward in the 2013 World Junior Championships despite Canada's fourth-place finish.

There are still questions in Edmonton regarding the defense and the goaltending, and it remains to be seen if this surge of youthful success can carry over into the NHL. But if you're going to hit the ground running in a shortened season, there are few better ways to prepare than collectively dominating minor and junior competition.

Did the lockout cure Los Angeles' Stanley Cup hangover?

Fall tends to be a difficult time for defending Stanley Cup champions, as it takes a good month or two to shake off the cobwebs from a summer shortened by a championship and the accompanying injuries and/or partying. However, the Los Angeles Kings don't have to worry about championship fatigue, as the lockout has given their players plenty of time to physically recuperate (minus the current injury to Anze Kopitar).

The question now lies in whether the Kings are still feeling like they're taking an emotional victory lap or if ready to sprint given the shortened season. On paper, they look as strong as ever, especially if Kopitar comes back soon and Jonathan Quick's offseason surgery doesn't hold him back. One thing's for sure — Dean Lombardi better hope there's not even a short hangover, as the compressed schedule means there's very little room for error.

What will February produce?

My usual philosophy is that any team hanging around the .500 mark around January 1st still has a chance at the playoffs. Now, what if you give every team the same record in the middle of January? That's the kind of fire we're playing with here, and the results can be anything. A stumble out of the gate means a hole with very little wiggle room for playing catch-up. Injuries, slumps, and team chemistry can all factor into what will be a chaotic first few weeks to the NHL season.

In some respects, February may produce some of the most frantic and energetic regular season hockey we've ever seen. At that time, teams will have two weeks to get their conditioning and timing together, and no team will have fallen off the map yet. With an emphasis on division rivalries and 30 days seeking 16 playoff spots with only 40 or so games to go, February gives everyone a ray of hope and enough time for teams to come together. It should be brilliantly chaotic.

Posted by Mike Chen at 6:19 PM | Comments (0)

NFL 2012 Divisional Weekend

Five Quick Hits

* This year's finalists for the Hall of Fame are really disappointing, though there are still more than seven I believe deserve induction. My personal choices to get in: Larry Allen, Cris Carter, Curley Culp, Kevin Greene, Jonathan Ogden, Will Shields, and Michael Strahan.

* We won't have a Broncos/Patriots AFC Championship Game, but a reminder of my favorite stat from their playoff matchup last year: when Tom Brady threw his 6th passing touchdown, Tim Tebow had 3 pass completions.

* This year's official All-Pro team is pretty sensible, but who didn't vote for Calvin Johnson? It's also a shame that no strong safeties made the team.

* Mike Mularkey can't catch a break. He resigned from the Bills after only two seasons as head coach, and got fired from the Jaguars, who were terrible before he got there, after only one. He never really got a chance to turn either team around, but most people around the league will perceive him as a two-time failure, and I bet he'll never get another opportunity as HC in the NFL.

* Two future Hall of Famers who plan to retire after the season were overcome with emotion following their teams' victories this week. Congratulations to Tony Gonzalez and Ray Lewis. Whenever the story ends, they've accomplished a lot.

***

In the early 2000s, you couldn't go five minutes without hearing a football analyst talking about "parity" in the NFL. Up was down, down was up, and dynasties were a thing of the past. This year, three of the four semi-finalists left in the playoffs were also in this position last season. Six of the final eight repeated from last year's divisional round. Five of the AFC's six playoff teams, including all the division winners, were the same as in 2011.

Either the Ravens or the Patriots have appeared in 10 of the last 13 AFC Championship Games, accounting for nine of the last 18 spots. Since 2003, the Patriots and Steelers have made as many AFC Championship Games as the rest of the conference combined, and the Colts and Ravens combine for six of the remaining 10 spots. The NFC is only slightly more balanced. Just in the last 10 seasons, the Eagles, 49ers, Bears, Falcons, Giants, Packers, Panthers, and Saints have all made multiple NFC Championship Games.

I suspect Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will retire around the same time, and the Patriot dynasty will finally crumble. In the mean time, the rich stay rich and the poor stay in Jacksonville.

Divisional Roundups

Ravens 38, Broncos 35

Can we all please admit that not all close games are good games? This one was a mistake-filled mess, won by the team that made fewer mistakes at the end.

Big plays were the theme throughout. The Ravens had a game-tying, last-minute, 70-yard touchdown pass. The Broncos had the longest punt return TD in postseason history and the longest kickoff return TD in postseason history. Torrey Smith scored on 59- and 32-yard TD bombs. Baltimore returned an interception for a touchdown. And so on.

On paper that sounds great. Watching it happen, you wonder how professional teams — playoff teams, no less — can make these mistakes. I'm sure that at some point, I have seen a worse defensive play than Rahim Moore made on the game-tying TD. I just can't think of one right now. The announcers said he took the wrong angle, and that's true, but the bigger problem is that while Jacoby Jones flew by him, Moore turned around, slowly backpedaled, mis-timed his jump, and missed both ball and receiver by a mile. All you have to do is keep him out of the end zone. Play this like a punt return. Stay close to Jones, and when he catches the ball, tackle him.

The Ravens made mistakes almost as bad. On Trindon Holliday's PR TD, the whole Baltimore team was on the other side of the field. Barring a trick play, you don't see that in college, much less an NFL playoff. Even the officiating was bad, as I imagine fans of both sides would agree. An exasperated Phil Simms eventually gave up guessing how Bill Vinovich would rule on replay reviews.

The Ravens posted 38 points without any long scoring drives — their longest was five plays. Actually, the final drive was six plays, but just 16 yards, mostly dithering around to see if they could get a little closer before the field goal. Baltimore had more than two first downs on a drive only once in a 77-minute game. The team's longest possession lasted just 4:38 and ended in a punt. The Ravens didn't work the Denver defense, they just burned Champ Bailey and Rahim Moore over and over. If you're looking for a star, it was defensive back Corey Graham, who intercepted two passes, one returned for a TD and the other in overtime to set up the game-winning field goal.

Perhaps the most stunning thing to come out of this game was the revelation that Bronco coach John Fox does not trust Peyton Manning. That would be the same Peyton Manning who was recently named first-team All-Pro for the sixth time, most ever by a QB, and who is likely to win NFL MVP. With 2:00 left in the game and Baltimore out of timeouts, Denver had 3rd-and-7 near midfield. If you pick up a first down, you run out the clock and the game is over. Otherwise, you punt and the Ravens get the ball with about 1:15 to play.

Again, if you get the first down, there is a 100% chance that you win. A run is very unlikely to gain 7 yards, so you run only if you believe all of the following:

1. Your defense can keep the Ravens from scoring a touchdown for 1:15
2. But probably not for 2:00
3. The difference between 1 and 2 is lower than the chance that Manning will complete a pass (69% this season)

By choosing to run, Fox indicated that there was at least a 70% chance the extra time would be the difference in the game. That's nuts. Look, Baltimore's offense has done nothing most of the day, but it's hit some big plays. Time isn't the issue. Either you'll stop them or you won't. If they're going to score at all, they'll score quickly. What you need to do is try to prevent that. Let Manning try a pass, and if he doesn't see anyone open, he falls down, takes a sack, and the clock keeps running anyway. The yardage doesn't matter, because you're already at midfield and worrying about a touchback. Running the ball there is a sucker's play. But Fox and his offensive coordinator, Mike McCoy, played it like suckers.

After Baltimore's TD, Denver got the ball back at its own 20 with :31 and two timeouts. Fox had Manning kneel and run out the clock. It's more likely you'll commit a turnover in :31 than that you might get into field goal range? Awful, awful coaching. I know Manning made a bad decision and a bad throw on his final interception, but that happens to everyone, even Colin Kaepernick...

49ers 45, Packers 31

In the middle of the season, 49er coach Jim Harbaugh benched a quarterback (Alex Smith) who led the team to the previous NFC Championship, signed a new contract in March, and had them in first place in the NFC West, with a 104.1 passer rating. His replacement, Kaepernick, rushed for more yards against the Packers than Smith has thrown for in his eight-year career (14,280).

FOX reported before halftime that Kaepernick had already broken the postseason single-game record for rushing yards by a QB, but in reality, he was still in 4th place, almost 40 yards shy of the actual record (Michael Vick, 119 against the Rams in the '04 postseason). He did eventually break that record, by a lot, and his 181 yards on the ground were the most Green Bay yielded to anyone but Adrian Peterson. Kaepernick rushed for more yards against the Packers than Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, and Chris Johnson combined.

The Niners outgained Green Bay by 227 and won time of possession by 16 minutes, more than a quarter. Announcer Troy Aikman told viewers, "These guys [the Packers] have nothing to be ashamed of." Sure, Troy, nothing except a borderline-blowout loss on national television and a going-through-the-motions second half. The last two or three quarters were the Colin Kaepernick Show, and not competitive; Aikman's colleague Michael Strahan even said, "The second half it wasn't really a game." The Packers reportedly were hit by the flu this week, and maybe that explains why they looked so much worse against Kaepernick and the 49ers than against Joe Webb and the Vikings last week. We always talk about the healthiest team winning in January.

I'm skeptical, though, that illness explains the Packers' inability to contain Kaeperenick. He exploited the holes in their defense, and they never figured out how to adjust. Green Bay got outcoached and outplayed.

Falcons 30, Seahawks 28

Down 20-0 at halftime, Seattle stormed back and nearly — probably should have — won. Both teams gained over 400 yards, and the difference was three Falcon field goals, contrasted with none by Seattle. It's easy, in hindsight, to second-guess Pete Carroll. But going for it on 4th-and-1 from the 11 was a good call, even if not using Marshawn Lynch was probably a mistake. And letting the clock run out at the end of the first half falls more on rookie QB Russell Wilson than on his coaches.

In fact, Carroll deserves serious credit for keeping his team fired up and focused at halftime. There are plenty of coaches who can't convince their players to keep giving 100% if they're down three touchdowns going into the locker room. Not only did the Seahawks avoid giving up, they scored TDs on their first three drives of the second half.

Forget double overtime, this was the best game of the weekend. Comebacks are exciting, and the Seahawks put on a show in the second half, taking a last-minute 28-27 lead before a pair of Matt Ryan completions, a foolish timeout by Carroll, and a long field goal by Matt Bryant saved the day for Atlanta. One potential goat for the Falcons: Jacquizz Rodgers, who returned the final kickoff out of the end zone, getting to the 28-yard line. That extra 8 yards cost :06, not nearly worth it. You have to down that. Ryan and Bryant (and the undying idiocy of icing the kicker) saved Rodgers' hide.

This game included my favorite announcing exchange of the weekend. It began with Wilson scrambling for a first down and Brian Billick telling viewers, "This is the ultimate in coverage sack." His partner Thom Brennaman then concluded, "17-yard pickup by Wilson." The ultimate in coverage sack wasn't even a sack! I really hope the Philadelphia Eagles hire Billick as their new coach, so we won't have to hear him announce any longer. I did enjoy his (rather cruel) shot at the QBs he had in Baltimore; speaking about the children who won the NFL's Punt, Pass, and Kick competition, Billick said, "About half of them were better than the three guys I had playing for me." Ouch.

Patriots 41, Texans 28

The Texans had a top-10 defense and the probable Defensive Player of the Year. Last week, they held the Bengals to 6 offensive points, under 200 yards of offense, and 0/9 on third downs. The Patriots had topped all of those numbers by halftime. Apart from a pair of long kickoff returns, New England controlled this game throughout, rolling up 457 yards and outscoring Houston 38-10 over the middle 45 minutes or so of the game.

The Texans scored a late TD to make the score respectable, but they were down 38-13 in the fourth quarter, and it could have been even worse. The Patriots lost both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead to injury on their first offensive series. Wes Welker (131 yds), Aaron Hernandez (85), and Shane Vereen (124 total yds, 2 TD) stepped up, and the Pats still dropped 41 on Houston. The Texans gave up more than 40 points three times this season, against the Packers (Week 6), Patriots (Week 14), and the Patriots again. This is a scary offense.

Championship Weekend Forecast

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have the best record in the NFL, 14-3, including wins over Denver, Washington, and Seattle, plus a 34-0 beatdown of the defending champion Giants. They went 7-1 at home this year, and the 49ers have a three-time-zone, West-to-East road trip. So why am I picking San Francisco?

Partly because the Falcons record is inflated by good fortune; there are several lucky wins in there, including this week's squeaker against the Seahawks. The Niners, in contrast, have looked dominant for much of the season, and in particular this week against Green Bay. Furthermore, as numerous analysts have pointed out, Atlanta has struggled against mobile quarterbacks.

In two games against Atlanta, Cam Newton passed for 502 yards, with 4 TDs and no turnovers, plus 202 rushing yards and 2 TDs. His passer rating against Atlanta was 113.8, more than 27 points over his season average. Russell Wilson rushed for 60 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, and other times he passed up open running lanes looking downfield, throwing for 385 yards and a 109.1 rating.

Colin Kaepernick just embarrassed the Packers, passing for 263 yards and rushing for 2,097. I don't think the Falcons can stop him, especially if they're without John Abraham, who re-injured his ankle on Sunday. The Falcons ran effectively against Seattle, but San Francisco's stout run defense will make that difficult. If the Falcons do win, it will be through the air. Matt Ryan is great at avoiding sacks, and Atlanta's receiving corps is problematic for any defense. The 49ers held up against the Packers' pass game, and I believe they'll do the same in Atlanta next Sunday. Niners by a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

This is a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game, so here's an update of what I wrote a year ago. Since 2008, when John Harbaugh became Baltimore's head coach, best regular-season record at home:

1. Patriots, 34-6
t2. Ravens, 33-7
t2. Falcons, 33-7

Conversely, the Ravens are just 21-19 on the road. This season fits that pattern: the Patriots went 6-2 at home, and the Ravens were 4-4 on the road. If you have a .500 team traveling to New England in January to face the best home team in the NFL, who do you bet on? I'm taking the Pats.

The Patriots are uniquely suited to attack Baltimore's vulnerabilities. The Ravens have played two long games in a row, and this will be their second straight week on the road. Tom Brady runs the fastest, most exhausting offense in the NFL. Even if New England gives up big plays the same way Denver did, Brady can match points with anyone.

These teams met in Baltimore in Week 3, with the Ravens winning 31-30. Baltimore's defense is playing its best football of the season, but the offense is still inconsistent. For the Ravens to win, they need some big plays, but they also need to control time of possession and keep Brady off the field. Gronkowski is done for the season, which limits New England's versatility, especially the running game. If the Ravens can keep New England in 3rd-and-long and force a couple of turnovers, they could return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2000 season. I just think too many elements here favor the home team. The Patriots win by 10.

This is the same Super Bowl matchup I predicted at this time last season.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:42 PM | Comments (0)

January 13, 2013

A Hall Election and Nobody's Coming

I had the feeling it might turn out this way. Not since Bill Clinton looked his second presidential election campaign in the eye have the Baseball Writers Association of America ended up electing nobody to the Hall of Fame. And I'm not sure which, among factors gaining serious discussion as the voting commenced and, at last, the results came in, may prove the most controversial of them all:

* The first-time presence of several players whose careers have been tainted by serious enough suspicions involving actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances, including the arguable greatest position player ever to step onto a field, and a seven-time Cy Young Award winner who once looked as though he might have been the greatest starting pitcher ever to step onto the mound.

* The limitation to 10 names on the BBWAA ballots when this year's field — comprising the A/A-PED players, a sizeable volume of holdovers from prior ballots, and the newcomers who've arrived at minimum because they're retired five years from active major league play — was overwhelming enough to make possible no new Hall of Famer(s) even without the A/A-PED specter. I get the impression that the one thing on which all the writers might have agreed was that that ten-name limit needs to change, post haste.

By the time the final week before the results arrived it felt almost predictable that Craig Biggio had a chance to pull in with the highest vote total a) among the new arrivals on the ballot; and, b) period. That's precisely what happened. Biggio drew a 68.2 percent ballot presence and was probably hurt by the ballot crowd, the 10-man limit on each ballot, and a certain not-in-the-first-year ballot bias still in play despite the overwhelming PED spectre.

My personal call, had I a vote, would have been to elect Biggio and first ballot syndrome be damned. And if you're among Biggio's supporters, you should be encouraged that four players since 1966 who earned between 65 and 75 percent in their first try got in on their second. (The four? Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Carlton Fisk, and Roberto Alomar. A fifth, Gaylord Perry, went in in his third eligible year.)

Now, about some of the other players and some of the other issues, hopefully with a sober eye:

1) Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, considered two of the prime poster children of PEDs, managed to creep into the top 10 vote-getters. It seems surreal to say that the game's home run (and other) king (yes, Bonds would have been a Hall of Famer even if he'd left the game in, say, 1998, and he'd have been recognized in due course as maybe the greatest all around player who ever stepped on the field) and a seven-time Cy winner topped an otherwise glittering ballot and didn't get in, first time bias or no. Sammy Sosa crept into the top twenty vote-getters (he finished 16th), and it seems likewise surreal on the surface to say a man who hit 60+ home runs in a season three times didn't finish higher.

There's really no concrete evidence against Clemens, when all is said and done. Whatever Bonds did or didn't put into himself between 1999 and the day baseball finally instituted its first anti-PED rules, there's no concrete, scientific, no-questions-asked way to prove whether any such substance did all that much of anything to help him fatten his statistics, advanced (for baseball) age or no. You can look at the players who did use such substances and discover (assuming you're willing to be absolutely objective) that the majority of them saw no great statistical performance jumps and that quite a few of them actually saw statistical dips.

It's all well and good to thunder, as several writers did, that no "cheaters" will get into the Hall of Fame. Perhaps that argument would hold far greater weight — and it certainly would make life and baseball analysis a lot simpler — if it could be proven, once and for all, with no controversy involved, what the substances did or didn't do for those players. Then, of course, you contend with no less than a recent comment from Mark McGwire:

"It's a mistake that I have to live with for the rest of my life. I have to deal with never, ever getting into the Hall of Fame. I totally understand and totally respect their opinion and I will never, ever push it. That is the way it's going to be and I can live with that."

McGwire admitted to PED use and said his reasoning came strictly from injury concerns. It's not impossible that a lot of the PED users did it for similar reasons, even as it's not impossible that a lot of them did it because they thought the stuff would give them a performance acceleration that may or may not have come. If you're going to factor motive into the picture, you can't just wave the users away too readily, either. If you're going to say flatly that "cheaters" don't belong, you'd better be ready to disclose whom — Babe Ruth? Ty Cobb? Gaylord Perry? Whitey Ford? Don Drysdale? (Suspected at times of loading a ball.) Among others? — you'd like to throw out of the Hall of Fame.

But there is one reason why, absent the PED issue, you might consider making Bonds wait a few years before you finally confer his Hall pass upon him. Put it this way: This was, arguably, the greatest all-around player the post-integration game had ever seen ... and, yet, he was also the single most divisive player in any clubhouse in which he played. One player put into words how a small boatload of teammates probably did feel: "I'd rather lose without Barry Bonds than win with him." I don't know that anyone ever said anything like that about the game's more dubious personalities — including Ty Cobb (who probably makes Bonds look like a saint). Like Dick Allen long before him, Barry Bonds was at war with the world, but not even Allen's worst enemies are known to have said they'd rather lose without him than win with him.

If part of your Hall of Fame criteria is "Did he help his teams win?" then there's a powerful case that Barry Bonds — and Sammy Sosa, for that matter, who wasn't the most popular man in his clubhouse no matter how much of a love affair he once had with fans — did at least as much to keep his teams from winning (you probably had to be in his clubhouses to get the idea and to know just how heavily carpeted they were with eggshells when he was around) as he ever did to help them win. And if that case exists, there'd have been nothing wrong, if enough controversial, about letting Bonds wait a few years.

(The truly bizarre stat among the first-time Big Three: Sosa had three 60+ home run seasons — and didn't win the home run title in any of them. Surrounding the third of those seasons, he hit fifty homers in one and 49 in the other ... and won the home run crown both times.)

2) McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro may not have much ballot life left. In fact, they may, as Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe points out, drop off the ballot entirely "before resistance to PED-related candidates softens enough." (If you think it'll be strange to have a Hall of Fame without a 760-bomb man, how strange will it be to have one without one of the men who had 3,000+ hits and 500+ home runs?) Having discussed McGwire, I'll simply repeat an argument I've made about Palmeiro in the recent past: There actually is a case to make that his failed 2004 drug test, practically at the finish of his career, probably did come by way of a tainted vitamin shot. He also tested negative a) in 2003, and b) a month after the positive that wrecked his reputation. There actually is the prospect that the closer you look at Palmeiro vis a vis actual or alleged PED's the less there is to see.

3) You'd better have a lot better evidence than just back acne to spurn Mike Piazza. He's never failed a drug test. He's the best-hitting catcher the game ever saw; it isn't close, and he did much of it in home parks (Dodger Stadium, Shea Stadium) that weren't exactly famous for facilitating fat batting statistics. He's not the best all-around catcher baseball has ever known (Yogi Berra holds that distinction, with Johnny Bench about an inch or three behind him), but his bat should have made him a Hall of Famer. How long is it going to be before we get it into our thick skulls that suspicion is not evidence?

4) Had they entered a far less crowded ballot, it's not unreasonable that Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, and even Jeff Bagwell might be starting to prepare their Cooperstown induction speeches. Yes, I said Curt Schilling. He was the very essence of a big game pitcher.

5) I'm still absolutely on the fence with Jack Morris. I don't know if I would have voted for him yet again if I had a Hall of Fame vote. I understand both sides of the Morris issue. It seems still to come down to two things: a) He embraced the role of a staff ace and lived it, even to the point of refusing to come out of games too early if he could help it; and, b) he still has a big game reputation regardless of what his final performance papers say about it. Voters who feel likewise will only have one more year to resolve it — and it won't be easy with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Mike Mussina coming onto the ballot next year; Schilling holding over from this year; and, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz arriving in 2015.

6) We bid a reluctant farewell to Dale Murphy. I've said it before, I'll say it again: it was the reluctant right resolution. If all you needed was character Murphy would go in in a walk. Stated simply, his body betrayed him before he had a chance to add even three more seasons at which he played at a Hall or near-Hall level to compound the few seasons in which he played like a Hall of Famer in the making. His family made an admirable push on his behalf this time around but to no avail. It'll take a future Veterans Committee to get Murphy in in the future and there's no guarantee they'll see things any differently.

7) We'll be bidding the same farewell next year, probably, to Don Mattingly. Same problem as Murphy: Character to burn, injuries killing the Hall of Fame case he was certainly en route making.

8) Shawn Green, we hardly knew ye. His first and last time on the ballot. And he, too, looked like a Hall of Famer in the making until his shoulder began betraying him in earnest after a few too many collisions in right field. Call him the Murphy/Mattingly of the late '90s to early-to-mid '00s: character to the tenth power. He'll always be remembered a) for 23 May 2002, when he hit 4 bombs, 5 extra-base hits total, and piled up 19 total bases (breaking Joe Adcock's single-game record); b) for his endearing habit of tossing his batting gloves to a kid in the field boxes every time he hit one out; and, c) for sitting a game out on Yom Kippur. Class player, class act, the injuries sapped his bat.

9) Bernie Williams was one classy Yankee and a terrific player, but he leaves the Cooperstown ballot in his second year of eligibility after pulling up below the 5.0 percent he needed to stay aboard. At his best, Williams was solid and reliable.

10) Kenny Lofton actually turns out to have had an out-of-left-field Hall case thanks to advanced sabermetrics, but he'll never get the chance to prove it — one and done, with one percentage point lower than Williams.He was both great and fun to watch at his best, and he was by God a pest on the bases who probably helped build a lot more runs than he was credited with building.

11) Steve Finley, too, probably got robbed of a Hall of Fame career because of injuries. He, too, is one and done on the Hall ballot. But he'll be remembered. Especially in Los Angeles: October 2, 2004, the day Finley made it game, set, and National League West for the Dodgers. The Giants pulled in the infield and the outfield, while the Dodgers had the bases loaded and one out, after tying the game at three in the inning. All Finley needed to do was get something, anything, in the air to score the winning run. He got one in the air, past the pulled-in infield, past the pulled-in outfield, and just over the right field fence. Making for a 7-run bottom of the ninth and the division championship.

Finally, when too much was said and done, I'm not sure I can improve on Jayson Stark's valedictory about this most anguishing Hall of Fame vote period in recent memory:

"[W]e need to have a long, serious national conversation, starting right now ... I'm ready if you are ... Maybe we'll decide we want a Hall of Fame that aspires to be a shrine, not just to greatness but to purity. I don't know how we get there, but maybe that's where this conversation will lead us.

"But maybe we'll decide, once we think it all through, that's impossible. Maybe we'll recognize that what the Hall needs to be, in these complicated times, is a museum, and nothing more sainted or noble than that.

"Maybe it needs to be a place that does what other great history museums do — tell the story of a time in history, for better and for worse, wherever it leads. Maybe that's not exactly what we would hope and dream a Hall of Fame should be. Maybe, though, that's what it has to be, because if we try traveling down that other road, we'll find nothing but forks and detours and roadblocks.

"But once we have that conversation, at least we'll know how to vote and how to proceed and how to build a Hall of Fame for the 21st century."

That's a conversation I'm looking forward to having. Even if I won't always be comfortable with some of the details.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 6:41 PM | Comments (0)

January 11, 2013

Rookie or Not, Here We Come

The Seattle Seahawks have stormed into the NFL playoffs on an incredible roll that has seen them win 6 straight and eight of their last nine. At one point in December, the Seahawks put up 150 points in three games against Arizona, Buffalo, and San Francisco. The amazing factor in all of their success is that Seattle is doing it with a rookie quarterback. Russell Wilson was a third-round pick and many thought would never play in this league.

Russell Wilson won the starting job in preseason despite the offseason acquisition of Matt Flynn from Green Bay. Pete Carroll named Wilson the starter in Week 1 and has never looked back. Wilson struggled in some early season games, but has gotten better each week. Carroll started expanding the playbook for Wilson and things started to take off for the rookie sensation.

What makes Russell Wilson so special is his unusual poise for a rookie quarterback. He is a natural leader that commands a huddle like no rookie quarterback is supposed to do. By Sunday night, Wilson is already studying the next week opponent and sharing his notes with his teammates. "The separation is in the preparation," is the motto that Wilson lives by. His critics said he was too small to play in the NFL. If you tell Wilson he can't do something, it will only motivate him to prove you wrong. Russell Wilson has already proved it to his teammates who have embraced him as their leader. He has also proved it to the Seattle fans that are feeling like the finally have the franchise quarterback they have never had.

Coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell studied what the Washington Redskins were doing with RGIII and the read option. Since implementing the read option into the Seattle offense, the team has taken off presenting multiple problems for opposing defenses. Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson together make a two-headed monster that nobody wants to face. Couple this with the league's No. 1 scoring defense and arguably the most physical brand of football in the NFL, sky is the limit for this Seahawks team.

Can a rookie quarterback lead a team to the Super Bowl? Remember, Wilson is not your average rookie quarterback. Wilson tied Peyton Manning's rookie record with 26 touchdown passes and has the league's third leading rusher in Marshawn Lynch. I have not even mentioned the fact that the Seattle offensive line boasts two Pro Bowlers. This team believes that they are going to win. The rest of the league is believing it, too. Wilson has learned how to win games in the fourth quarter and the confidence is high going into this weekend's divisional playoff against Atlanta. Russell Wilson has beaten Brady and Rodgers and we might just see him facing off against Manning in the Super Bowl.

Posted by Greg Suttich at 5:35 PM | Comments (0)

January 10, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Divisional

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Baltimore @ Denver (-9½)

Ray Lewis will face Peyton Manning for the final time as the Broncos host the Ravens, who vanquished Manning's former team, Indianapolis, 24-9 last Sunday in the wild card round. Manning is 9-0 in his career versus Baltimore, including a 2-0 record in the playoffs.

"I've announced a Ravens' 'retirement' way more times than Ray Lewis," Manning said.

"I think Lewis' retirement announcement was just what the Ravens needed. It worked. Ray will certainly go down in history, not only as the greatest linebacker, but as the only player in history to announce his retirement twice in the span of one week. Ray loves to be the 'center' of attention, which is what one would expect from the greatest 'middle' linebacker of all-time.

"As for Sunday's game, Lewis may intend to 'raise hell.' I intend to make it 'Ray's Hell."

John Harbaugh and the Ravens hope for a better outcome than their Week 15 34-17 loss to Denver. As always, the key to stopping a Manning-led team is confusing Manning with shifting defensive schemes.

"Did you say shifty?" Harbaugh said. "By definition, shifty is defined as 'deceitful, evasive, or untrustworthy.' My defense is anything but, but that certainly describes my brother's handling of the Alex Smith situation perfectly.

"We like our chances in Denver. Manning is far from unbeatable in the playoffs. He's had a knife to his neck four times, and a rope to it even more. We won't back down. We have to get into Manning's head, and the best way to do that is to ask him, 'How the heck does your idiot brother have more Super Bowl wins than you?'"

Lewis riles the "Broncs' Zoo" crowd at Invesco Field with his signature pre-game dance. Manning counters not with a signature dance, but with his signature, as he kindly autographs mementoes for a number of star-struck opponents on the Ravens' sideline. Ray Rice has "His Mile High-ness" sign a football, which Rice promptly drops.

After a slow start, Manning shakes off the rust, not from the pins in his neck, but from a two-week layoff. After an early interception, Manning returns to form, throwing for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns. It's Denver's Von Miller, and not Ray Lewis, who impacts the game from the linebacker position. Miller sacks Joe Flacco twice and recovers a fumble, then wonders why telephone service giant Vonage hasn't tapped him for an endorsement deal.

Denver wins, 30-24.

Green Bay @ San Francisco (-3)

After a bye week, the second-seeded 49ers host the third-seeded Packers at Candlestick Park. It's a rematch of a Week 1 contest in which the visiting 49ers took down Green Bay 30-22 at Lambeau Field. Colin Kaepernick, who took over for Alex Smith in Week 11, will get his first playoff start.

"Alex is still wondering why he was benched," Kaepernick said. "In fact, he's quite irritated by it. That's why we call him 'Alexander the Grate.' Interestingly enough, if Alex were our kicker, he'd still have his job. Despite doing about everything wrong, apparently, David Akers can do no wrong.

"But I'm looking to build my legacy, much like 49er legend Joe Montana. It remains to be seen which 'Montana' I become: the four-time Super Bowl champion, or the Skechers Shape-Ups pitchman."

Green Bay slowed Adrian Peterson and shut down quarterback Joe Webb, who started in place of the injured Christian Ponder, in the Packers' 24-10 wild card win over the Vikings last Saturday.

"The Vikings are in a unique position at quarterback," Aaron Rodgers said. "They have two 'Average Joe's' at the position.

"Luckily, the QB situation in Green Bay is stable. Honestly, I don't even know who my backup is. I think his name may be Lynn Dickey. In any case, an important statistic to know is that my backup has been sacked 54 fewer times than I have this season. I've put this team on my back all year. My offensive line has put me on my back all year. My O-line so many 'protection' issues, they've been offered their own series on TLC."

The 49ers know they have to get pressure on Rodgers, and they will be successful. Unfortunately, pressure on Rodgers means he will be flushed from the pocket, and he is the NFL's best at throwing on the run.

Rodgers tosses 2 touchdown passes, runs for another, and plays turnover-free, while Kaepernick commits 2 costly giveaways.

Green Bay wins, 27-23.

Seattle @ Atlanta (-3)

After spotting the Redskins a 14-0 first quarter lead, the Seahawks stormed back last Sunday to take a 24-14 win in Washington, earning a divisional date with the top-seeded Falcons.

"The Redskins' fortunes folded like Robert Griffin's knee," Pete Carroll said. "Some called it the 'Belt(way) Buckle.' Others called it 'Capitol Punishment.' Still others likened it to the Redskins' offense and called it '3 and Out.' For the 'Skins 2013 opener, RG3 is listed as 'questionable,' as are Mike Shanahan's intentions in last week's game.

"As for Sunday's game, Atlanta is favored, and deservedly so. The Falcons are the NFL's oldest team, which naturally gives them an edge in experience. We are the NFL's youngest team, which naturally makes us Lawrence Taylor's favorite team. But for us this year, youth has been served, particularly with subpoenas for urine samples."

The Falcons are 0-3 in playoff games under Mike Smith, including a divisional loss as the NFC's top seed in the 2010 playoffs. A loss to the Seahawks would be devastating to the franchise and the city of Atlanta.

"Until we win a playoff game," Mike Smith said, "we can't expect our due respect. Only in Atlanta is a playoff game also called a 'must-win game.'

"The 0-3 playoff record fall squarely on my shoulders, and I accept that. Hey, I'm not afraid to look in the mirror, especially since '0-3' looks almost like '3-0' in the mirror.

"But let's not be so quick to assume the Seahawks will beat us. Sure, they bring a lot of 'positives' to the table, not to mention the PED-testing lab, but you have to question Seattle's consistency. Yes, they beat Arizona 58-0 in December, but lost to them 20-16 in September. That's inconsistent. We, on the other hand, are as consistent as consistent can be, particularly where playoff outcomes are concerned."

The Seahawks are a confident bunch, particularly cornerback Richard Sherman. They call him the "General," because he's vowed the "burn" Atlanta. And, as a special gift to the Falcons, Sherman and the Seahawks bring a famous Seattle band for a pre-game mini-concert. Matt Ryan and crew, who have had their heart questioned for three years, are thrilled to see Seattle rockers Heart take the stage, but not-so-thrilled when the band performs "Heartless."

Seattle wins, 31-29.

Houston @ New England (-9½)

Like the Packers-49ers contest, Sunday's Houston-New England clash is a rematch of a regular season game. In Week 14, the Patriots handed the Texans a crushing 42-14 defeat, which started a Houston slide that cost them home-field advantage.

"The Patriots sent us 'packing,' twice," Arian Foster said. "They whipped us back in December. I was surprised when I saw the line was only 9½; I was even more surprised when I realized that was 9½ points and not touchdowns.

"Not many people are giving us much of a chance to win in New England. But at least we know we have one advantage over the Patriots, and that's in bulletin board material."

With a win over Houston, Tom Brady and the Patriots could either host a rematch of last year's AFC title game versus the Ravens, or travel to Denver for another Brady/Peyton Manning showdown.

"I'm no bisexual," Brady said, "but I'll answer like one: I'm good either way.

"I like our chances to go all the way. Especially since there's no chance we'll face the Giants. Of course, I expect a different game from the Texans. I'll prepare for them as if they beat us 42-14. I didn't win three Super Bowls taking opponents lightly. I'm where I am because of three things, with hard work being No. 1. The other two are the 'Tuck Rule,' and Drew Bledsoe's innards getting turned inside out."

Foster is the NFL's most well-known vegetarian, but the Texans' only hope may lie in J.J. Watt knocking Brady into a "vegetative" state. That and 150 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns from Foster, who would love to "bow to the Mass.'s." Unfortunately, as much as Foster wants to take the ball out of Matt Schaub's hands, the Patriots want to put it in his hands.

Brady throws for 3 touchdowns, including one to Rob Gronkowski, while the Patriots' defense stymies Schaub, sacking him 4 times and forcing 2 turnovers. The Texans keep it close, relative to a 28-point losing margin.

New England wins, 31-20.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:24 AM | Comments (0)

Steroids, Character, and the Hall of Fame

One thing I like about the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame is that, some years, no one is inducted. It sort of speaks to a certain integrity that the electors are willing to say, "This year, no one deserved it." Can you imagine an NFL Hall of Fame weekend with no induction speeches, no garish yellow jackets passed out? An Academy Awards Show with no Best Picture nominees? This was one of the years no one was inducted.

Two players passed up this year were Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Certainly, without steroids, they would have been ushered into the Hall overwhelmingly. I don't think most people have a problem with cheaters failing to be canonized in the sport they cheated at, but maybe there is a case to be made for these characters to get in the Hall. Jeff Passan, in an article published on Yahoo!, did not make that case.

His column is one of those I suspect was written with, "Heh, this ought to get people talking" in mind (I call such columns Baylesses). It goes a little something like this:

"The sport is evermore human because the Black Sox succumbed to greed and threw the World Series, because the segregationists won until they could no longer bottle up social change, because the Hit King was a flawed man who couldn't overcome a gambling addiction. Baseball is all of us."

Well, no actually. Yes, we are all flawed, but most of our flaws stop short of match-fixing, overt racism, and gambling on events you have control over. That last characterization is especially rich. Pete Rose, simply a man with an addiction. Does Passan think he still wouldn't be in the HOF if he had gambled as much as his addicted heart desired, but stuck with horse racing and football? Apparently, that's what he wants us to think.

"This wasn't just a referendum on steroids. It was one on the writers and their failure to recognize as long as they want the privilege of creating history, they must in doing so protect the worthy institution that finds them fit for the task."

They didn't let in guys that cheated at their sport. What a failure to protect the institution.

"[A]ll writers must understand — and perhaps it is the Hall's charge in the coming years to remind them as much — that this vote is about the player and his merits, not the moralistic preening of people who have been told to commingle something evident and measurable (performance) with something so subjective (character)."

Yes, the very subjective character issue. Who is to say that taking PEDs to cheat at your sport isn't right within the context of receiving that sport's highest honor? Maybe it's totally right.

"That clause didn't stop racists, bigots, jackasses, misers, criminals and a wide assortment of otherwise unsavory people from induction, and the Hall's halls seem no less gilded now than before."

The logical fallacies are killin' me. Hey guys, racists from the '20s are in the Hall of Fame, so what right do we have to keep Barry Bonds out? Hell, let's induct Steve Howe while we're at it, just to prove the point.

"The character clause is like so many other things written more than 70 years ago: well-intentioned but positively archaic in 2013."

Character: archaic in 2013. I hope he prints up a bumper sticker saying that.

"Our baseball players are no longer heroes, but take-the-good-with-the-bad humans like all of us. The character clause was put in place as an idealistic nod to what was supposed to be a gentleman's game. Anybody who thinks he or she can accurately apply it to these ballplayers we don't know need only look at Kirby Puckett, media darling and, it was later alleged, wife beater."

Oh God what is this I don't even...

Okay. I must press on. This is not the first time in this article he's made the, "Hey man, nobody's perfect" argument, and now he wants to say that they used to be sort-of perfect? After just saying racists and scumbags from an era ago are in the Hall of Fame? The reason guys like Ty Cobb and other racists and scumbags are in the Hall of Fame is because, sadly enough, that attitude was par for the course among the voters themselves. Today's voters, in high dudgeon with their judginess about not letting baseball cheaters in the baseball Hall of Fame, actually have a difficult time sympathizing with guys who excelled due to PEDs. So unfair.

As far as Kirby Puckett goes, let me make this perfectly clear: If he beat his wife, that is truly reprehensible. As reprehensible as it was, it does not have to do with baseball. The guys Passan is going to bat for in this article (Clemens, Bonds, and Pete Rose) committed transgressions that had everything to do baseball. It was their actions in regards to baseball that is keeping them out of the Hall of Fame. I will say it again: THEY CHEATED AT BASEBALL.

If Puckett was somehow proven to have beaten his wife, and they took him out of the Hall of Fame because of it, I probably wouldn't have a problem with it. If they kept him in anyway, I also would not lose any sleep over that, either. But that's not the point I'm trying to make anyway. The point I am trying to make is, if the guardians of the Hall decide that the "integrity, sportsmanship, character" that they require of HOF inductees be limited to their actions in baseball, that's a completely reasonable stance to take.

"Similarly, the electorate does not know who did and who did not take steroids — or whether a pitcher gave up home runs to PED-aided hitters or if a hitter struckout to a juiced-up pitcher. From the late 1980s to the early 2000s, the game operated in a haze of drugs that corrupted what we knew about the sport."

Oh man, did he just use the "but everyone's doin' it!" argument? He did. And not for the first time. It's distressingly similar to the gun-control debate, where I'm hearing a lot of arguments that easily reduce to "Criminals break laws ... no point in having laws, then!" Some bad guys and cheaters are in the Hall of Fame, and will continue to be voted into the Hall of Fame...might as well not consider whether a guy is a bad guy and cheater in deciding his fitness for the Hall, then!

The rest of Passan's article sort of goes off on a tangent here, talking about how out of touch with the game so many HOF voters in, complete with a hilarious bon mot that his dentist knows as much about baseball as some of these guys! It's funny 'cause his dentist has no business deciding who should be in the Hall of Fame!

So ... good job, Hall of Fame voters. I'm not sure whether or not to keep off-the-field villains out of the Hall or not, but please continue to keep baseball cheaters out of the baseball Hall of Fame. Thank you.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:07 AM | Comments (5)

January 9, 2013

Top Five Moments From the BCS Championship

Watching the BCS title game this year was almost as lackluster as watching last year's game when five field goals and one touchdown – all by the same team — accounted for all the action. The 2013 version between Alabama — scorer of all 22 points in the 2012 game — and Notre Dame was just about as boring, except for the two teams scored a combined 56 points and the Crimson Tide's frequency of scoring in the first half made for at least somewhat of an action-packed game.

Everyone — that is, except for Notre Dame fans — expected a rout by the defending champs, and that is exactly what they got. It was clear after the first two 'Bama possessions that there would be little fight in the Fighting Irish, and that against a grossly overmatched opponent, they would forever be relegated to being "Notre Lame."

But that's not to say there weren't some interesting moments during the game. Here are the top five moments as I saw them (in no particular order).

1. Brent Musburger gushing over A.J. McCarron's girlfriend.

Okay, so it's one thing to see a pretty girl and say, "She's a very beautiful young lady," and leave it at that. But it's another to go on endlessly about it, especially when you're old enough to be the chick's grandfather! That's what happened when Gushburger, er, Musburger and his sidekick Kirk Herbstreit had this to say about Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron's girlfriend Katherine Webb, a former Miss Alabama and, yes, a very beautiful young lady:

"You quarterbacks, you get all the good looking women," Musburger said. "What a beautiful woman!"
After both let out a couple of simultaneous wows and whoas, Herbie said, "A.J.'s doing some things right down in Tuscaloosa."

To which Musburger added, "If you're a youngster in Alabama, start getting the football out and throw it around the backyard with pop."

All right, boys, spray some cold water on your faces, get the director to kill the camera on the hottie and get back to calling the game. Even my wife and I looked at each other and commented about the duration of their admiration of Ms. Webb.

2. McCarron/Jones "love spat."

So, late in the game, Alabama had to burn a timeout when the quarterback and center Barrett Jones had a disagreement on the snap count, causing McCarron to bark at Jones and receive a two-handed chest shove in return. After the timeout, when showing the replay, the always descriptive Musburger called the incident a "love spat" between the two roommates.

Now, maybe I sound like I'm harping on Brent a little too much, but this guy's a consummate professional who doesn't normally put his foot in his mouth. However, he had a buffet of heels and toes during this broadcast, which is unusual for him. As a footnote to the incident, McCarron went over to Jones on the bench between offensive series and gave him a quick "man hug," and Jones said during a post-game interview that he "was right" regarding the disagreement.

3. Eddie Lacy's double-spin touchdown reception.

When Eddie Lacy scored Alabama's fourth touchdown of the first half, he looked like a video game figure on his way into the end zone. The Crimson Tide tailback took a short pass over the middle from McCarron at about the Notre Dame 12, made a nasty spin move at the five to make three Irish defenders miss, took a couple steps and then leaped and spun again at the goal line to make two other Irish defenders miss. To steal a quote from a SportsCenter anchor years ago, "That's the circle button on your PlayStation controller." Lacy did more in that short dozen-yard run than most backs do in an entire game. He's going to be a good one in the NFL and certainly deserved Offensive Player of the Game honors.

4. Deion Blue's swat of Everett Golson's fourth-down pass.

Early in the second quarter, Notre Dame looked as if though they might get into the end zone to pull within 21-7. On 4th-and-5 from the Alabama 39, Golson heaved a pass down the sideline to wide receiver T.J. Jones inside the Crimson Tide 10. But just when it appeared Jones would haul it in for an Irish first and goal, Tide cornerback Blue leaped at the last moment and swatted the ball away, thwarting the Irish threat. 'Bama wouldn't score again until Lacy's twisting reception near the end of the half, but that defensive play took away just about any momentum Notre Dame thought they might have been gaining in the first half.

5. Chance Warmack's "brick wall" block on Zeke Motta.

On a 3rd-and-3 play on Alabama's 48 late in the second quarter, Notre Dame safety Zeke Motta rushed the line of scrimmage on a delayed blitz. McCarron handed off to freshman running back T.J. Yeldon and just as Motta thought he had a beeline to the ballcarrier, he instead got knocked backward three yards and to the ground by a right arm block from Warmack. I didn't really notice it live, but when ESPN showed the replay of Yeldon's run for a first down, it was plain as day. Warmack saw Motta coming, planted his feet and brought up his right forearm. The next thing I saw was Motta stumbling back, falling on the ground and Yeldon running right through the spot where Motta used to be. It was one of the most impressive blocks I've ever seen, and it kept the 'Bama drive going that ended in Lacy's spectacular TD reception.

Bonus moment: The "old school" look of the game.

If anyone has read any of my previous articles, they've probably noticed that I'm sort of an "old school" fan of college football. After all, it's the tradition and pageantry of the game that makes it my favorite sport of all time; and everything about this game was appealing to me from that standpoint. Both teams wore their traditional uniforms — no souped-up, multicolored, Picasso-esque jersey or helmet patterns — just blue and gold, and crimson and white.

The game was also played on natural grass, which is almost becoming a novelty these days with many stadiums opting for Field Turf. And the match-up was between a team I've loved since I was a kid (Alabama) and a team that I've hated since I was a kid (Notre Dame). To have a championship game where, in my mind, it was the good guys against the bad guys was fun and provided me more interest than in some previous title games.

Although the game itself might have been a snoozer for the casual fan, a bitter disappointment for the Irish fan and a savored victory for the Crimson Tide fan, there were plenty of other things to keep an eye (or ear) on that ultimately made it a fun game to watch.

Posted by Adam Russell at 12:35 PM | Comments (0)

January 8, 2013

NFL 2012 Wild Card Weekend

Five Quick Hits

* Washington has made the playoffs three times in the last decade. All three teams were knocked out by the Seahawks.

* I understood football better than Leslie Frazier and Joe Webb when I was in kindergarten. What possesses someone to spike the ball and stop the clock with :01 remaining in a 24-10 game? There is no such thing as a 14-point play. Even in the most optimistic of universes, it is impossible to win at that point. Grow up.

* Adrian Peterson had a historic season in 2012, but I did think it was funny that right after Cris Collinsworth compared him to Jim Brown, Peterson got taken down by an arm tackle from a defensive back.

* Norv Turner will probably have numerous opportunities to be an offensive coordinator in 2013. I'm also interested, though, to see where defensive coach Romeo Crennel will end up.

* You know, this year's Cotton Bowl was supposed to be pretty competitive. At least the Heisman voters can feel vindicated.

***

Cris Collinsworth hates Tom Brady. Either that, or he forgot about him for 3½ hours. I don't know how else to explain repeated references to the MVP race without even mentioning Brady. Personally, I went with Peyton Manning, but you could choose Brady, Adrian Peterson, Aaron Rodgers, or J.J. Watt, and those are all reasonable selections. How you say Brady isn't even a candidate, though, is beyond me. Collinsworth also claimed, "From a pure numbers standpoint, nobody's numbers are better than Aaron Rodgers." That is very questionable.

If the only number you're looking at is passer rating, then yes, nobody's numbers are number is better than Rodgers' (108.0). But that's the only major statistic in which Rodgers led the league. Brady passed for 532 more yards than Rodgers, 643 when you include sack yardage — which you have to do, because Rodgers takes more unnecessary sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL. Rodgers rushed for 227 yards more than Brady, but that's still a deficit of over 400. Even with 61 extra pass attempts, Brady is ahead on yardage.

Rodgers passed or ran for 41 touchdowns, Brady 38. Rodgers committed 12 turnovers, Brady 8. If that's an advantage for either player, it's Brady. I could do this same thing for Peyton Manning. I think both of them, and Drew Brees, had better stats than Rodgers in 2012. I'm not trying to disrespect Rodgers, who had a great season and is a legit MVP candidate. I'm trying to point out that Cris Collinsworth is not a trustworthy analyst.

Wild Card Roundups

Texans 19, Bengals 13

You wouldn't know from the score, much closer than it should have been, that Houston dominated this game. When your running back has almost as much yardage (174) as the other team (198), you should win by three touchdowns. But the Texans kept settling for field goals, kicking three from within 30 yards. They were one play away from losing a game they controlled from beginning to end. That won't work next week against the Patriots.

What Houston did exceptionally well in this game was play defense. The Bengals gained under 200 yards of offense and went 0/9 on third down. Cincinnati's offense scored fewer points (6) than its defense (7). J.J. Watt's game stats were very good: 5 solo tackles, 2 for a loss, 1 sack, 2 pass deflections. But the numbers don't fully illustrate what a great game he played. It's hard for any defensive player to have as much impact or value as a quarterback, but watching this game, you could make a strong case for Watt as NFL MVP.

Offensively, the Texans rode Arian Foster. He carried 32 times for 140 yards (4.4 avg) and a touchdown, with 8 receptions for another 34 yards. Foster's cutting and agility are remarkable. He's got vision and patience, and he's a good receiver. As long as he stays healthy — and that's a serious concern when someone carries 32 times — he's one of the top RBs in the league.

Going forward, Houston needs to get more out of its passing game and improve dramatically in the red zone. The Bengals' season is over, but as the year went on, their defense played better and better, with the offense getting worse and worse. Andy Dalton in particular did not play well the last month. Even facing a good defense, you need to score more than 1½ points a quarter.

Here's something weird: Houston was the only winning team this week not to score exactly 24 points.

Packers 24, Vikings 10

Like Tony Dungy, I thought the Vikings would be better with Joe Webb. Oops. Christian Ponder did not have an especially good season as Minnesota's QB. His 6.1 yards per attempt was lowest in the NFL, far behind 31st-ranked Mark Sanchez (6.4). Even worse, Ponder averaged just 9.8 yards per completion, which makes 2nd-worst Philip Rivers (10.7) look like Dan Marino. That said, the Vikings won their last four in a row with Ponder, and he did have a good game against Green Bay in Week 17 (3 TDs, 120.2 rating).

Webb, who has a Tim Tebow-type skill set, has generated a spark in the past, and he presents a very different challenge to defenses. Given Ponder's relative inefficiency, the dangers posed by a talented running QB, and the last-minute switch to Green Bay's defensive plans, it seemed like Minnesota might benefit from losing its starting QB. That's not how it turned out.

Webb finished the first half 3-of-12 for 22 yards, which is abysmal, but he also got sacked twice for 16 yards. That means he finished the first half with 14 attempts for 6 yards. The final stats were a little better (11-of-30, 54.9 rating, 68 rush yds), but Adrian Peterson performed below his recent standards (99 yds, 4.5 avg) and the Viking offense gained half its yardage on a pair of meaningless fourth-quarter drives when the outcome was no longer in question.

It's tough to tell whether the Packers' defense is healthy and revitalized, or just looked good against a quarterback who couldn't throw.

Ravens 24, Colts 9

You could write a whole article just about the coaches in this game. The Colts' head coach, Chuck Pagano, spent last year as the Ravens' defensive coordinator, and overcame leukemia to coach in this game after missing most of the season undergoing treatment. His replacement, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, missed this game because he was taken to the hospital. His condition, possibly flu-related, reportedly is stable. Arians, the Colts' usual play-caller, was replaced by quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen. Christensen was the team's offensive coordinator last year under former head coach Jim Caldwell, who is now the primary play-caller for the Ravens. Have you got all that? There will be a quiz later.

Ray Rice, who lost 2 fumbles in the last three seasons combined, lost 2 more against the Colts on Sunday. In 77 career regular-season games, Rice has 7 fumbles. In 7 career playoff games, Rice has another 5 fumbles. He fumbles once every 11 games in the regular season, and once every 1.4 games in the postseason. However, Rice and Bernard Pierce combined for 173 rushing yards (6.2 avg), and Joe Flacco dramatically outperformed Andrew Luck. Both passed for about 285 yards, but Flacco did so on just 23 passes, with 2 TDs and only 1 sack. Luck threw 54 passes (135% more), got sacked 3 times, and threw an interception. Flacco's greatest playmaker was Anquan Boldin (5 rec, 145 yds, TD). I can't help wondering if Baltimore's limited offense is going to keep Boldin out of the Hall of Fame. His numbers would be a lot bigger somewhere like Detroit or Atlanta.

The Colts gained 25 first downs and 419 yards of offense, but scored just three field goals. Luck committed two turnovers to end long drives, both over 40 yards. Paul Kruger had a big game for the Ravens: 2.5 sacks, a forced fumble that led to one of those turnovers, and a batted pass.

Seahawks 24, Redskins 14

At a time when passing records are falling left and right, and on a weekend with three celebrated rookie QBs starting, no one touched Sammy Baugh's 75-year-old rookie record for postseason passing yardage. In the 1937 NFL Championship Game, the rookie Baugh passed 33 times for 354 yards, 3 TDs, and a 122.5 rating in Washington's 28-21 victory.

This weekend, however, Seattle's Russell Wilson became the first rookie quarterback to win a road playoff game since the legendary ... wait for it ... Mark Sanchez. Washington also became the first home team to lose in the wild card round since the 2010 season; home teams went 4-0 last year and 3-1 this time around. The mark might have stayed perfect if not for a knee injury that effectively nullified sparkplug QB Robert Griffin III, the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The game began with a best-case scenario for Washington. The home team drove 80 yards for a touchdown, then forced a three-and-out, then scored another touchdown to take a 14-0 lead over the shellshocked visitors. Seattle's defense was the best in the NFL over the last month, and it couldn't stop Alfred Morris and RG3. Just before the second touchdown, though, Griffin aggravated his injured right knee. He briefly went into the locker room, but returned to the field and continued to play, with minimal success.

On those first two drives, Griffin was 6-of-9 for 68 yards and 2 TDs, plus 2 first downs rushing. The rest of the game, he went 4-of-10 for 16 yards with 9 rushing yards, an interception, and a lost fumble. Washington's offense, which scored 2 TDs in 2 drives with a healthy RG3, failed to score on its next eight possessions. Griffin gained more first downs on that first TD drive than the rest of the game combined. Hindsight is 20/20, but you have to think Washington would have been better off replacing RG3 with Kirk Cousins immediately after that second touchdown, or at least after the following drive when it became clear that Griffin wasn't himself.

None of this is intended to take anything away from Seattle, which pulled its defense together and got some production out of its offense. The score really shouldn't have been so close, as the Seahawks dominated the final three quarters. But they went 1/6 in the red zone, with three short field goals, a lost fumble, and a turnover on downs in the fourth quarter. This easily could have been a 20-point win.

Divisional Forecasts

Six of these eight teams played in last year's divisional round. The two who didn't (Seattle and Atlanta) face each other. That's also the only divisional game which is not a regular-season rematch.

Ravens at Broncos

The Broncos went 7-1 at home this year. The Ravens were 4-4 on the road. These teams met in Baltimore in Week 15, and the Broncos won 34-17. Peyton Manning hasn't lost to the Ravens since 2002, a nine-game winning streak. Also, the Ravens have a short week (6 days) and a long road trip.

The Ravens are healthier than they were in Week 15, and Jim Caldwell's had some time to settle in as their play-caller. That's not worth 17 points, never mind the home-field swing and the short week. Broncos by 10.

Packers at 49ers

The NFC games seem (to me) much tougher to predict than next week's AFC matchups. These teams met in Green Bay in Week 1, and the Niners won, 30-22. Of course, that was four months ago, but this time the teams will match up in San Francisco, and the Packers were just 4-4 in road games. On the other hand, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has only started 7 games in the NFL. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers has started 7 playoff games, and performed extremely well (5-2, 16 TD, 4 INT, 105.4 rating).

To beat San Francisco, though, the Packers probably need to play (and coach) a lot smarter than they did in the first round. Mike McCarthy was so conservative in the red zone that even staid Al Michaels called him out for it: "I think I would have gone for the touchdown there." The Packers several times mismanaged their timeouts, and it wasn't a big deal in the runaway over Minnesota, but Saturday's match in San Francisco will probably be close.

Arguably the biggest factor for success in January is healthy players, and Justin Smith's availability remains in question. If he plays, and he's near 100%, I think the Niners win. I suspect Smith won't be in top form, so the call here is Green Bay by a field goal.

Seahawks at Falcons

Everyone's wondering if Atlanta can finally win in the playoffs. Since hiring Mike Smith and drafting Matt Ryan, the Falcons have finished with a winning record every year. This is their fourth season making the playoffs, and their second time with a first-round bye and a home game. So far, they're 0-3, losing to the NFC Champion Cardinals in '08, the NFC Champion Packers in 2010, and the NFC Champion Giants last year.

Everyone knows Seattle is very good. Over the last month or two, no NFC team has been hotter. So no one will really be surprised if the Seahawks win on Sunday, or even if they advance to the Super Bowl. But if Seattle does win — and I suspect most fans believe they're the better team right now — it will be an indictment of Smith and Ryan and the Falcons' ability to win in the playoffs. Makes perfect sense, right?

But I'm actually going with Atlanta. I think the Seahawks are better than the Falcons, but Seattle has its second cross-country road in a week, and the defense might be without leading pass rusher Chris Clemons, who injured his left knee in the victory over Washington. Atlanta's been winning close games all year, and I'll give them one more: Falcons by three.

Texans at Patriots

When they met in Week 14, New England won 42-14. The Patriots are actually healthier now than they were for that game, with All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski back from a broken forearm. The Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots have gotten a playoff bye six times, and they're 5-1 in those games (they lost to the Jets in 2010). Houston has a good defense, a powerful running game, and an intermittently explosive pass attack. I just don't think it's enough. The Texans lost by 28 last time; let's cut that in half. The Patriots win by 14.

***

Colts/Ravens Coaching Quiz

Match the coach to the description!

1. Bruce Arians
2. Jim Caldwell
3. Clyde Christensen
4. Chuck Pagano

A. Colts head coach, former Ravens defensive coordinator, hospitalized for leukemia treatment
B. Ravens assistant, former Colts head coach
C. Colts assistant and interim head coach, hospitalized for flu-like symptoms
D. Colts assistant who worked under B

***

Finally, a Sports Central tradition, our annual All-Loser Team: an all-star team made up entirely of players whose teams missed the postseason. If this team could actually be assembled, it would beat any and every team in the playoffs.

2012 NFL All-Loser Team

QB Drew Brees, NO
RB Doug Martin, TB
WR Calvin Johnson, DET
WR Brandon Marshall, CHI
WR Vincent Jackson, TB
TE Jason Witten, DAL
C Mike Pouncey, MIA
G Andy Levitre, BUF
G Jahri Evans, NO
OT Joe Thomas, CLE
OT Donald Penn, TB

DT Henry Melton, CHI
DT Ndamukong Suh, DET
DE Calais Campbell, ARI
DE Cameron Wake, MIA
OLB Lance Briggs, CHI
OLB Lavonte David, TB
ILB Daryl Washington, ARI
CB Charles Tillman, CHI
CB Antonio Cromartie, NYJ
FS Jairus Byrd, BUF
SS Stevie Brown, NYG

K Phil Dawson, CLE
P Dustin Colquitt, KC
KR Leodis McKelvin, BUF

Offensive Loser of the Year: Calvin Johnson, DET
Defensive Loser of the Year: Charles Tillman, CHI
Most Valuable Loser: Charles Tillman, CHI

***

Quiz answers: 1. C, 2. B, 3. D, 4. A

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:44 PM | Comments (2)

January 7, 2013

Big 12 Guards Headline Cousy Award Watch List

Each April, the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame selects a winner for the Bob Cousy Award, which recognizes the top point guard in college basketball. The award, named after Boston Celtic Hall of Famer Bob Cousy, emphasizes leadership, teamwork, fundamentals, and success.

Five players from the Big 12 were nominated for the 2013 award's original watch list of 85 candidates. The list will be narrowed down to 20 sometime in January, the final 10 in February, and the final five will be selected by March 1. The winner will be presented at the Basketball Hall of Fame's class announcement April 8 in Atlanta as part of NCAA Final Four weekend. Here's a brief look at the Big 12 candidates.

Pierre Jackson, Baylor — Named Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, the 5-10 senior from Las Vegas has lived up to the billing. Coming into conference play Jan. 5, Jackson is averaging 19.6 points per game, and has scored in double figures in 20 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the conference. He leads the Big 12 in scoring, is second in assists with 6.3 per game, and is third in steals with 2.2 per game. Jackson is considered the third-best point guard in the nation by ESPN, while Lindy's named him the conference's top playmaker and most entertaining player. He was one of 11 finalists for the award in his debut season at Baylor last year.

Korie Lucious, Iowa State — The senior point guard from Milwaukee leads the Cyclones and is third in the Big 12 in assists, averaging 5.4 per game as of Dec. 20. He's dished out at least 5 dimes in seven games thus far this season. He averages 9.7 points per game, and shoots an average of 2.0 three-point shots a game, fifth in the conference.

Elijah Johnson, Kanas — The Jayhawks are looking to dominate the Big 12, and Johnson has evolved into the type of leader the team needs to accomplish that goal, according to head coach Bill Self. Johnson has a team-high 59 assists heading into conference play, and is second on the team in three-pointers with 20. He's also a preseason Wooden Award nominee and an All-Big 12 Honorable Mention.

Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State — As a freshman, the 6-4, 225-pound native of Flower Mound, Texas, is averaging a team-leading 5.2 assists per game to go along with his 13.4 points a game. He's second in the nation among freshmen in steals and sixth nationally among freshmen in assists. Smart is the only player in the Big 12 who ranks among the top 16 statistically in all five major categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocked shots. He's on pace to challenge the conference freshman record of 89 steals, set by Kansas' Mario Chalmers in 2005-06.

Kyan Anderson, TCU — The sophomore Fort Worth native's nomination to the Cousy watch list gives TCU a nominee for the third consecutive season. Former Horned Frogs standout Hank Thorns was included the previous two seasons. In his second season as a starter, Anderson leads the Frogs and ranks among the conference leaders in scoring (13.1 ppg), assists (3.7 Apg), and steals (1.6 spg). His 35 points in a Nov. 24 win over UAB ranks among the nation's best individual performances this season. In TCU's last season in the Mountain West Conference in 2011-12, Anderson led his team to a winning season and their first postseason appearance in seven years.

A screening committee appointed by the Hall will narrow down the candidates, while a separate premier selection committee will choose the winner. Both committees are made up of top college basketball coaches, media members, sports information directors, and hall of famers. Two previous Big 12 players have won the award: D.J. Augustin of Texas in 2007-08 and Texas A&M's Acie Law in 2006-07.

Posted by Stephen Kerr at 4:01 PM | Comments (0)

January 3, 2013

NFL Weekly Predictions: Wild Card

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-4½)

With a chance to lock up the AFC's top-seed, the Texans folded in a 28-16 loss in Indianapolis. Houston tumbled to the third seed in the AFC, and will face the surging Bengals.

"Many naysayers thought we would be the first No. 1 seed to fall," Gary Kubiak said. "Well, they were wrong. As they say, 'Everything's bigger in Texas.' And that includes the nooses.

"But we'll have to make do with what we have. Not only is that the No. 3 seed, it's also Matt Schaub. Matt's been slumping lately, and his struggles seem to have coincided with taking a foot to the groin on Thanksgiving Day. And people need to understand that. 'ChuckStrong' bracelets raise awareness for cancer; 'Matt'sDong' bracelets raise awareness for quarterbacks who have been kicked in the balls."

With a playoff spot wrapped up, the Bengals were able to rest several starters in last week's 23-17 win over Baltimore. The Bengals met the Texans at Reliant Stadium in last year's wildcard game, won by Houston, 31-10.

"We owe the Texans," Marvin Lewis said. "Not for beating us last year, but for keeping us from playing in New England.

"The key to our success is keeping J.J. Watt away from Andy Dalton. Watt led the league in sacks with 20.5, as opposed to Ndamukong Suh, who led the league in nut sacks, with one."

Watt doesn't kick a Bengal in the balls; on the contrary, he kicks the Texans in the ass, with a stirring pre-game speech that incites the home team, particularly the defense, to get their head out of their ass."

Watt sacks Dalton twice, deflects a pass, and forces one fumble. Schaub throws for 2 scores, and Arian Foster rushes for 112 yards and a score.

Houston wins, 27-16.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-9½)

The Vikings earned the NFC's last playoff spot with a thrilling 37-34 win over the Packers last week, winning on Blair Walsh's 29-yard field goal as time expired.

"This game could again come down to the kickers," Leslie Frazier said. "That's where we have the edge. Walsh has been a godsend for the Vikings. On the other hand, Mason Crosby is the Packers' 'miss-iah.'

"Adrian Peterson has rushed for 409 yards in two games versus Green Bay this year. I see no reason not to rely on him again. Obviously, Dom Capers didn't learn anything from the first game. It's a case of 'Dom and Dom-er.' If I didn't know better, I'd say Dom Deluise was calling the shots for the Pack defense."

Instead of a first-round bye, the Packers again face the unenviable task of stopping Peterson, who powered through the Green Bay defense for 195 yards last week.

"Peterson may have rushed for 195," Clay Matthews said, "but he didn't get Eric Dickerson's record. To 'All Day,' we said 'Not Today.' That is what the Green Bay defense has become — we consider holding a running back to 195 yards a 'success.'

"The Vikings may have Peterson, but we have Aaron Rodgers. He's the NFL's reigning MVP, as well as a spokesman for State Farm. Aaron's really taken an interest to State Farm. He's not guaranteeing victory over the Vikings, he's insuring it. When fans ask for an autograph, Aaron just signs his first name and says he's an 'underwriter.' If you ask him for a sound bite, he'll give you a good 'quote.'"

Peterson will get his yards, mostly between the 20's, and the Packers will force Ponder to make the tough throws in the red zone. That's when it all falls apart for the Vikes. It's January, in the playoffs, at Lambeau Field. One doesn't need to "Ponder" that long to see the likely outcome.

Green Bay wins, 31-19.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (-6½)

The AFC North champion Ravens host Andrew Luck and the fifth-seeded Colts, with the winner likely facing the top-seeded Broncos. Indy tuned up for the playoffs with a 28-16 win over South rival Houston last week.

"Despite it being meaningless game," Luck said, "we treated last week's game with the Texans like it was a playoff game. Apparently, the Texans did too, because they lost.

"Joe Flacco calls himself an 'elite' quarterback. He's better than elite; he's 'one of a kind,' because he's the only person than calls Joe Flacco 'elite.'"

The Ravens have numerous injury issues, particularly on defense, but may have Ray Lewis in the lineup on Sunday. Lewis has not played since tearing his triceps on October 14th.

"Seventeen years of spastic pre-game dances finally caught up to me," Lewis said. "Trust me, it really pains me when I can't play. I never wanted to be compared to FOX's Tony Siragusa, but, unfortunately, I'm just taking up space on the sideline.

"Hopefully, my retirement announcement will spur the team to a long playoff run. I'm known league-wide for big hits, but this is the biggest impact I've made in the NFL in years."

Luck threw 18 interceptions during the regular season. That's about one per game. And it's one that will cost the Colts dearly in Baltimore. With the Colts in Baltimore territory in the fourth quarter, Ed Reed grabs a deflected pass and races towards the end zone, plowing through Luck on the way. Reed finds pay dirt, and a $50,000 fine for roughing the passer, waiting for him in the end zone.

Baltimore wins, 34-17.

Seattle @ Washington (+1)

The 11-5 Seahawks are the NFC's fifth seed and have beaten three playoff teams this season. In the year of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, rookie quarterback Russell Wilson has been equally impressive, and tied Peyton Manning's rookie record with 26 touchdown passes.

"This Seattle team reminds me a lot of my 2005 NCAA championship team at USC," Pete Carroll said. "We're young, motivated, and on a payroll.

"Russell has been brilliant this year, and so has our defense. But we haven't seen anything like Griffin this year. When I told my defense that they could expect to be 'tested' on Sunday, they panicked. Some have already filed appeals.

"Despite rumors to the contrary, my team is not a bunch of dopers, and wide receiver Doug Baldwin is not a dealer of PEDs, hence the mistakenly-applied nickname 'Performance-Enhancing Doug.'"

The Redskins won the NFC East with a 28-18 win last Sunday over Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Washington has won seven straight, and are looking for their first playoff win since 2006.

"Jim Haslett devised a great game plan to confuse Romo," Mike Shanahan said. "It involved a great deal of blitzing. We knew that if we put Romo 'under pressure,' he would provide the 'crack.' However, Romo surely won't be charged with possession … of a career-defining victory. He's certainly 'not black enough'; he's a 'cracker.'

"RG3 basked in the afterglow of glory after Sunday night's game, and it lasted well into the next day. It was far from a 'Black Monday' for Robert. In fact, ESPN talking head case Rob Parker said it was more like a 'Not Black Enough Monday.'"

Like the 'Skins, the Seahawks can run, they can pass, and have a quarterback with mobility. Unlike Washington, Seattle has an overpowering defense with the speed to contain Griffin, and the muscle to stop Alfred Morris.

Seattle wins, 27-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

January 2, 2013

Sports Central's 2012 NFL All-Pro Team

With the 2012 regular season over, it's time to honor this season's most outstanding players. This column exists to explain the reasons I chose certain players, or didn't take others, and to give recognition to those who just missed the cut. If all you care about is who made the team, skip to the end and you'll find a list.

We name 13 players on offense and 13 on defense. With fullbacks playing ever smaller roles in the offense, a third wide receiver and second tight end are essential. On defense, we list three cornerbacks (everyone needs a good nickel back) and two each of defensive tackles and inside linebackers (accommodating both the 3-4 and 4-3).

Our choices are listed in order, so you'll know which receiver is third, which tight end is second, and so on.

Quarterback: Tom Brady (NE)
Last Year: Aaron Rodgers (GB)

This is the most difficult decision in years at QB. You could argue for Rodgers, who led the league in TD/INT differential (+31) and was productive as a rusher (259 yards, 2 TDs). Rodgers spread the ball around to a shifting cast of oft-injured receivers, and his 7.1 TD% easily led the NFL (Russell Wilson, 6.6%). He also led the league in passer rating (108.0). But Rodgers ranked 8th in passing yardage, and he took more sacks (51) than any other QB. Some of that is the offensive line, and some of it is Rodgers.

The choice came down to Peyton Manning (DEN) or Brady. I wouldn't argue with Manning. In fact, I saved this position for last when drawing up the team, and changed the selection from Manning at the last second, using a cheap tiebreaker: without Brady, I'd have no Patriots on my All-Pro offense. New England easily led the NFL in both points and yardage.

Brady passed for 4,827 yards and 34 TDs, with a 98.7 passer rating and only 8 INTs. He also rushed for 4 TDs, the only QB in the league with more rushing touchdowns than fumbles (2). Manning has great numbers, too: 4,659 yards, 37 TDs, 105.8 rating. You wouldn't go wrong with either one.

Running Back: Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Last Year: Ray Rice (BAL)

2,097 yards, 6.03 average, 13 TDs.

Was Adrian Peterson's 2012 season the best ever by a running back? Probably not, though it's clearly among the greatest of all time. Just by way of comparison, look at Peterson's stats alongside those of LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Chris Johnson in 2009.

LT: 1,815 yds, 5.22 avg, 508 rec yds, 31 TD, 2 fmbl
CJ: 2,006 yds, 5.60 avg, 503 rec yds, 16 TD, 3 fmbl
AP: 2,097 yds, 6.03 avg, 217 rec yds, 13 TD, 4 fmbl

Obviously there's more to this than stats, but with players as good as this, it's not easy to make distinctions. Was Johnson's open-field speed worth more than LT's ability to find the hole? Did Tomlinson's goal-line play count for more than Peterson's long runs? How much of their brilliance can be attributed to blocking?

Statistically, I don't see Peterson's 91-yard rushing edge on Johnson making up for a 286-yard receiving deficit, 3 TDs, and a fumble. Nor do I believe 282 rushing yards are worth more than 291 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. And this is just recent history, not even touching Jim Brown and O.J. Simpson and Terrell Davis. So no, I can't see Peterson's 2012 as the best season ever.

I don't give extra credit for coming back from a devastating knee injury, either, though it does make All Day's season even more remarkable. The more interesting issue, I think, is where Peterson rates all-time as a running back. I'd put him in the top 20 at this point, but not the top 10 yet. I suspect he will be regarded as one of the 10 greatest RBs by the time he retires, and what he's accomplished in only six seasons is fantastic. Peterson has a higher career rushing average (5.05) than Gale Sayers (5.00).

Fullback: Darrel Young (WAS)
Last Year: Greg Jones (JAC)

This is such a marginal position in 2012, it's really difficult to evaluate. Young got more playing time than most fullbacks, and he led the way for Alfred Morris — a rookie 6th-round draft choice from Florida Atlantic — to gain 1,600 yards.

If you prefer James Casey (HOU), Jerome Felton (MIN), Vonta Leach (BAL), or Bruce Miller (SF), I won't argue. Fullbacks are like part-time guards, and at this point in the game's evolution it's difficult to distinguish a single standout.

Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson (DET), Brandon Marshall (CHI), Andre Johnson (HOU)
Last Year: Calvin Johnson (DET), Wes Welker (NE), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)

Calvin Johnson is obvious. He broke or tied numerous receiving records this season, including Jerry Rice's single-season yardage mark, set in the nutty 1995 season. If this wasn't the greatest season ever by a wide receiver, it was close. The other two spots were a nightmare, though.

Statistically, Marshall and Johnson make sense. Megatron led the league in pretty much everything, but Andre Johnson ranked 2nd in yards and first downs, and he had three 150-yard games. Marshall ranked 2nd or 3rd in receptions, yards, first downs, TDs, and 100-yard games. Go by stats, those are your guys.

But Marshall was targeted almost compulsively, he had relatively few yards after the catch, and he didn't break many long plays. The Texans were 6-0 when Johnson gained under 75 yards, compared to 6-4 when he gained 75 or more. The less involved he was, the better they did. Johnson also caught only 4 TDs, the fewest of any 1,000-yard receiver except Brian Hartline.

You could make persuasive arguments for A.J. Green (1350 yards, 11 TDs, league-leading seven receptions of 40+ yards), Roddy White (1351 yards, 73 first downs), Wes Welker (1354 yards, 118 receptions), Reggie Wayne (1355 yards, 73 first downs), Dez Bryant (1382 yards, 12 TDs), or Vincent Jackson (1384 yards, 19.2 avg). But there are also fair arguments against all of them. My fourth choice, narrowly edged by Johnson, was Demaryius Thomas (DEN). Thomas ranked 4th in yards and tied for 4th in TDs, and he was a big-play receiver. He put up terrific numbers despite being targeted just 141 times (13th-most), 50 fewer than Marshall.

There's room for reasonable people to differ on any choices after Megatron. Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson are proven talents who both had big years, and ultimately, the numbers persuaded me to select them over Thomas and the others.

Tight End: Jason Witten (DAL), Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
Last Year: Rob Gronkowski (NE), Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

The only question was whether or not to include Gronkowski, who played only 11 games but nonetheless led all tight ends in scoring (11 TDs). Gronk is the best tight end in the NFL, no question. He's an explosive receiver and a very good blocker. But the Patriots averaged 34.2 ppg even without Gronkowski, which left the door open for the ageless Gonzalez.

Gonzalez led all tight ends in first down receptions, with the 2nd-most catches, 3rd-most yards, and 4th-most touchdowns. He was a crucial outlet when opponents tried to double-cover Julio Jones and Roddy White. Witten caught 110 passes for 1,039 yards (both best among TEs) and is a fine blocker. His numbers probably would have been even more impressive if he hadn't begun the season playing with a lacerated spleen.

Center: Mike Pouncey (MIA)
Last Year: Nick Mangold (NYJ)

The Pro Bowl voters selected the wrong Pouncey to join Chris Myers (HOU) on the AFC roster. I still don't understand the hype for Maurkice.

Guard: Mike Iupati (SF), Andy Levitre (BUF)
Last Year: Carl Nicks (NO), Jahri Evans (NO)

Iupati will start in the Pro Bowl, and he's widely recognized now as one of the best guards in pro football. But Levitre is not. Look, C.J. Spiller didn't average six yards a carry by himself, and it's not Levitre's fault that Buffalo's pass offense is Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson. Spiller gained more receiving yardage than any Bills WR except Johnson.

Offensive Tackle: Duane Brown (HOU), Joe Staley (SF)
Last Year: Jason Peters (PHI), Andrew Whitworth (CIN)

I've never chosen Joe Thomas (CLE), but he makes the Pro Bowl every year, so he must be doing something right. You wouldn't know it from watching Brandon Weeden (72.6 passer rating) and Trent Richardson (3.56 yds/att), though. Whitworth started the season strong, but he played through injuries later in the year and slipped a bit.

Defensive Tackle: Geno Atkins (CIN), Justin Smith (SF)
Last Year: Brett Keisel (PIT), Calais Campbell (ARI)

Smith is a 3-4 defensive end, but he primarily plays inside, setting things up for Aldon Smith, with responsibilities very similar to those of a 4-3 DT. Atkins was a cinch at the other spot, a one-man wrecking crew with 12.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Atkins got 3 sacks as a rookie, 7.5 last year, and now 12.5. Heaven help the AFC North if he keeps improving.

Two inconsistent players capable of terrorizing offenses merit special mention: Vince Wilfork (NE) and Ndamukong Suh (DET). Wilfork, my third choice, has games in which he is borderline unblockable. At those moments, I'm not sure there's a better defensive player in the league. He had an awfully good season, his best in years. Suh (8 sacks) may be the most terrifying player in the league, and not just because he'll kick you in the groin.

Defensive End: J.J. Watt (HOU), Calais Campbell (ARI)
Last Year: Jared Allen (MIN), Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)

Well, here I am, choosing two 3-4 ends. As defensive ends, no less, rather than shuffling them inside and listing them at DT.

Watt, of course, was an extraordinary pass rusher, despite that he lined up inside as often as outside. He led all defensive linemen in tackles and solo tackles (by more than 1/3), led the NFL in sacks (20.5), deflected 16 passes, forced 4 fumbles, and recovered 2. I'm inclined to believe this is the greatest season ever by a defensive lineman.

The other spot was a tough call. Cameron Wake (MIA) got 15 sacks, but his overall game still doesn't blow me away. And here's something weird: the Dolphins lost every game in which Wake got more than 1 sack (4.5 at Arizona, 3 at San Francisco, 1.5 vs New England). Eleven DEs finished the regular season with between 10 - 12.5 sacks, and you could argue for any of them as All-Pro.

But this year, the 3-4 DEs, who usually play inside and set the table for pass-rushing OLBs, excelled. Campbell, whom I chose as a DT last year, tallied 50 solo tackles, 6.5 sacks, and 6 pass deflections. Justin Smith, whom I chose as a DT this year, is technically a 3-4 end. Rob Ninkovich (NE) compiled 8 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, and 4 fumble recoveries this season. Corey Liuget (SD) got 7 sacks and 9 deflections. An interior lineman's primary role is to disrupt the opposing offense, and players like Campbell, Ninkovich, and Liuget did that at the highest level. Well, second-highest — Watt.

My favorite 4-3 DEs were probably Wake, Allen, Elvis Dumervil (DEN), and Chris Clemons (SEA). Charles Johnson (CAR) had great stats (12.5 sacks, 7 FF), but didn't stand out when I saw him.

Outside Linebacker: Von Miller (DEN), Jerod Mayo (NE)
Last Year: Terrell Suggs (BAL), Clay Matthews III (GB)

I'm probably the only one not choosing Aldon Smith (SF), who had 19.5 sacks and forced 3 fumbles. But he's still learning to play linebacker, and even as a pass-rusher, I'm not convinced he can succeed without Justin Smith creating opportunities for him. I watch the 49ers and I'm nearly as impressed by his teammate Ahmad Brooks (SF).

Miller has drawn attention as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and that's silly with J.J. Watt out there, but he's had a tremendous season. Last year, I thought Miller was a little overrated, but this season, he justified all the hype: 18.5 sacks, 6 FF, and an interception returned for a touchdown. Peyton Manning is obviously the biggest factor in Denver's ascendance this year, but don't discount Miller's development.

Mayo moves around in New England's shifting 4-3/3-4 defensive scheme, playing both inside and outside. Frankly, I'd like to list him inside, where he played earlier in his career and where he appeared on the Pro Bowl ballot, because it's a weaker position this season. But outside probably fits better. What's not in question is Mayo's play this season. He's credited with 88 solo tackles, 3 sacks, 4 FF, and an INT. Those are good numbers, not staggering, but Mayo played at a very high level in 2012.

Clay Matthews would have been hard to deny if he hadn't missed four games with a hamstring injury. He missed 25% of the season and still managed the 5th-most sacks in the NFL (13.0), plus he's got a well-rounded game, more than just rushing the passer. Two perpetual contenders had nice years: Chad Greenway (MIN), whom I've never chosen and feel bad about it, had another fine season (98 solo, 3 sacks, 5 PD), as did Lance Briggs (CHI), with 13 PDs, including a pair of INTs returned for 110 yards and 2 TDs. I didn't see enough of the Buccaneers this year to evaluate rookie OLB Lavonte David (TB), but he's listed with 112 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 5 PDs, and an interception. Wesley Woodyard (DEN) did everything for the Broncos: led the team in tackles, 5.5 sacks, 3 INTs. Woodyard, Zach Brown (TEN), and Lawrence Timmons were the only players this season with 3 picks and 5 sacks.

Inside Linebacker: Daryl Washington (ARI), NaVorro Bowman (SF)
Last Year: Brian Cushing (HOU), London Fletcher (WAS)

I will continue to whine, until next season, about the blind-side shot that ended Cushing's season. He would have been a runaway All-Pro. Bowman is sure to be a controversial choice over his teammate Patrick Willis (SF). They're both fine players, and everyone acknowledges that; I just think Bowman might be a little better. Sometimes I question if they're not both a touch overrated. I mean, half the Niner defense are All-Pro candidates, yet it's not clear they're the best defense in the NFL. Maybe they have 10 or 11 good players and only 1 or 2 really great ones.

People don't understand how good Arizona's defense was. How can a 5-11 team, a team that lost 11 of its last 12 games, have a good anything? How do you justify two All-Pros (Calais Campbell and Washington) from a team this bad? As terrible as the offense was, as many turnovers as its QBs committed on their own side of midfield, the Cardinals were one of only five defenses with more INTs than passing TDs allowed. They led the NFL in opponents' passer rating (71.2, about the same as Chad Henne), and were top-five in important categories like passing yards, first downs, and takeaways.

Washington made 108 solo tackles, with 9 sacks, a tremendous figure for an inside linebacker. A number of other ILBs had strong years. Derrick Johnson (KC), like Washington, excelled for a bad team. Lawrence Timmons (PIT), playing for the top-ranked defense in the NFL, led or tied for the team lead in solo tackles (75), sacks (6.0), and interceptions (3, with 80 return yards and a TD). James Laurinaitis led the NFL in solo tackles (117). Others who played particularly well include Karlos Dansby (MIA) and rookies Luke Kuechly (CAR) and Bobby Wagner (SEA).

Cornerback: Charles Tillman (CHI), Richard Sherman (SEA), Antonio Cromartie (NYJ)
Last Year: Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Lardarius Webb (BAL), Johnathan Joseph (HOU)

My top two choices from last season, both off to good starts in 2012, got injured early in the year. Revis played 2 games and Webb 6. Fortunately, the top choice this season was simple. Tillman was the Bears' most valuable player, with 3 INT return TDs and 10 forced fumbles.

Sherman, who successfully fought a suspension after testing positive for Adderall, led the league in passes defensed (24) and intercepted 8 passes, returning 1 for a touchdown. He also forced 3 fumbles, recovered a fumble, and sacked Mark Sanchez. Cromartie was the toughest call — I always hate choosing a nickel back, and I should probably just stop to save myself the headache — but Cromartie filled some big shoes after Revis got hurt in Week 2.

Tim Jennings (CHI) led the league with 9 INTs, Johnathan Joseph (HOU) had another nice year, Patrick Peterson (ARI) started to come around as a defensive back, and both Pittsburgh corners played well. No cornerback has a mean streak like Cortland Finnegan (STL). I don't know if I'd want him in my locker room, but I certainly wouldn't want to play against him.

Free Safety: Thomas DeCoud (ATL)
Last Year: Eric Weddle (SD)

I like Harrison Smith (MIN) and Ryan Clark (PIT), and I like Dashon Goldson (SF) and Earl Thomas (SEA), but this way a three-way battle among Jairus Byrd (BUF), Ed Reed (BAL), and DeCoud. Byrd intercepted 5 passes, with 4 FF and 2 FR. Reed intercepted 4 passes, knocked down 16 others, recovered 3 fumbles, and scored a touchdown. DeCoud, though, was the greatest play-maker this year. Every time I saw the Falcons, he made things happen. DeCoud wrapped up 2012 with 62 solo tackles, a sack, 6 INTs, 9 other PDs, and a fumble recovery. He was the outstanding player on an Atlanta defense that exceeded expectations and kept them in close games.

Strong Safety: Glover Quin (HOU)
Last Year: Kam Chancellor (SEA)

This is not the strongest position in the NFL right now. In the mid-2000s, this was a constant battle among Troy Polamalu, Rodney Harrison, Adrian Wilson, John Lynch, Bob Sanders the one year he stayed healthy, even Ed Reed for a couple years before he moved to free safety. There's no one of that caliber right now, no one playing at a Hall of Fame level. With no real standouts, about a dozen players floated around my list of finalists. Quin got the nod because he did everything. He led Houston in tackles, with 2 INT, 2 FF, a sack, and 14 PD.

Stevie Brown (NYG) made the most big plays: 8 INT returned for 307 yards, 11 other PDs, 2 forced fumbles and 2 recovered, plus 64 solo tackles. No other SS had that kind of big-play impact, but it's not clear to me that Brown consistently played at a high level. In fact, I don't know that anyone on the Giants did anything consistently this year. Brown started only 11 games, and this is his third team in three years. He gets 300 return yards again next season, I'll name him All-Pro.

Kicker: Blair Walsh (MIN)
Last Year: Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)

This choice probably seems obvious. Walsh led the NFL in field goals (35) and set a record for 50-yard field goals (10). He was 10/10 from 50, with a long of 56, and his only miss under 40 yards was blocked. That's a great season, and Walsh is indeed my All-Pro kicker.

But he was a close call over Phil Dawson (CLE). Dawson had a higher field goal percentage, went 7/7 from 50 yards and out, and played in Cleveland, where the weather outside is frightful, rather than Minnesota, where the weather outside is outside the stadium. Dawson's season, in more challenging environs, deserves recognition, too.

Punter: Andy Lee (SF)
Last Year: Zoltan Mesko (NE)

Evaluating this position always drives me nuts. I had four finalists: Lee, Dustin Colquitt (KC), Jon Ryan (SEA), and Dave Zastudil (ARI). This is actually the first year I've chosen Lee, though he's an AP favorite because he has fancy averages. This year, he added efficiency near the goal-line, with 36 punts down inside the 20-yard line, and just 4 touchbacks.

Ryan had an even better I20-TB ratio, but his net average was 2.4 yards lower and he didn't face a short field as often. Colquitt allowed 2 punt return TDs, and Zastudil was disqualified because I couldn't in good conscience choose three All-Pros from a team that went 5-11. Also, his average was nothing special, he plays in nice weather, and he didn't punt from a short field very often.

Kick Returner: Leodis McKelvin (BUF)
Last Year: Patrick Peterson (ARI)

McKelvin averaged 28.3 yards per kickoff return and 18.7 per punt return, with 2 PR TDs. McKelvin's PR average is the highest by any player with at least 20 returns since Billy Grimes in 1950. That's aided by a lot of fair catches (14), but it's still a remarkable number. Furthermore, McKelvin didn't fumble all season, which is rare for returners.

He edged Darius Reynaud (TEN), who scored 2 PR TDs in Week 17, Marcus Thigpen (MIA), who scored on both a KR and a PR this year, and David Wilson (NYG), who led the NFL in KR yardage by almost 300, but didn't return any punts. Jacoby Jones (BAL) had some huge plays this year, but he makes too many bad decisions, and his punt returning was actually below league average.

Special Teamer: N/A
Last Year: N/A

I don't name a special teams ace, but Lorenzo Alexander (WAS) continues to excel even as his playing time on defense increases.

Only three players repeat from my 2011 All-Pro team: Calvin Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, and Calais Campbell.

Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Last Year: Aaron Rodgers (GB)

This was a two-man race between Calvin Johnson (DET) and Peterson. Johnson set the single-season yardage record that Peterson didn't, but it helps to play for a team that throws as often as the Lions did this season. You could also argue for Tom Brady (NE), Peyton Manning (DEN), or Rodgers, but Peterson and Johnson stood absolutely alone at their respective positions, and I believe they were the most outstanding offensive players of 2012.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt (HOU)
Last Year: Jared Allen (MIN)

Not close.

Special Teams Player of the Year: Blair Walsh (MIN)
Last Year: N/A

Why isn't this an official award? It's been bugging me for a year now, ever since I named Patrick Peterson DROY based more on his returning than his cornerback play. If you replaced Walsh with an average kicker, I doubt Minnesota would have made the playoffs. The Vikings won two games this season by 3 points each, and in those two games, Walsh went a combined 7/7, with a 54-yard field goal in one game and a 55-yarder in the other.

Most Valuable Player: Peyton Manning (DEN)
Last Year: Aaron Rodgers (GB)

My top 10 ballot:

1) Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
2) Tom Brady, QB, NE
3) Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
4) Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
5) J.J. Watt, DL, HOU
6) Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
7) Von Miller, LB, DEN
8) Charles Tillman, DB, CHI
9) Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
10) Geno Atkins, DL, CIN

In 2011, the Broncos' offense ranked 23rd in yards and 25th in points. This season, it improved to 4th in yardage and 2nd in scoring. I have all the respect in the world for Peterson, but the best quarterbacks make their whole teams better. Manning, Brady, and Rodgers succeed no matter who they're throwing to, and RG3 has made Washington games exciting for the first time in years. In 2003, I named Manning as All-Pro QB and Brady as MVP. This year, vice versa.

I dropped Calvin Johnson (DET) out of the top 10 because I couldn't bear to leave off any of the others, and his team finished 4-12. Not fair, I know.

Speaking of not fair, Watt ranks 5th because of how I interpret the term valuable, but if this were a straight Player of the Year Award, he'd probably be my top choice.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Robert Griffin III (WAS)
Last Year: Cam Newton (CAR)

Let's start here: Andrew Luck should not be seriously considered for this award. There were two standout rookie QBs this season: RG3 and Russell Wilson (SEA). Stats:

You don't have to trust the NFL's passer rating formula to see the difference here. Luck threw a lot of passes. He did not throw a lot of touchdowns, and he did throw a lot of interceptions, more than Griffin and Wilson combined. Luck's 54.1% completion rate ranked 31st in the NFL, 10 points behind Wilson (64.1%) and even further behind Griffin (65.6%). Luck averaged a yard fewer per attempt, with a much lower TD% and a higher INT%, and he wasn't nearly the runner Griffin and Wilson were.

I'm not trying to disparage Luck, because he had a nice year and I think he's going to be a very good player, but it's absurd that he's in this discussion just because the Colts made the playoffs. So did Washington and Seattle. Look, obviously Luck is an upgrade over Curtis Painter. That doesn't make him a great player. I'd be more inclined to go with Doug Martin (TB) or Alfred Morris (WAS). Martin rushed for 1,454 yards with a 4.6 average, added 472 receiving yards, and scored 12 TDs. Morris rushed for 1,613, with a 4.8 average and 13 TDs.

Ultimately, though, this was Griffin over Wilson. The Seahawks were a pretty good team last year. Washington was not, and Griffin changed that almost single-handedly. He accounted for almost 400 more yards than Wilson, despite missing a game and a half with injuries, and with fewer turnovers. Griffin led all quarterbacks, not just rookies, in yards per pass attempt (8.1), and he threw the fewest INTs of any full-time QB.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Casey Hayward (GB)
Last Year: Patrick Peterson (ARI)

I admitted earlier that I haven't seen a lot of Lavonte David (TB), but a player with his numbers is doing a lot of things right. Luke Kuechly (CAR), Harrison Smith (MIN), and Bobby Wagner (SEA) made fine debuts, as well. Hayward is already among the best CBs in the league, but Kuechly had 103 solo tackles and 5 takeaways, Smith scored 2 INT return TDs, and Wagner tallied 2 sacks and 3 INTs from his middle linebacker position.

Coach of the Year: John Fox (DEN)
Last Year: Jim Harbaugh (SF)

I'm sure there will be some sentimental votes for Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians (IND), and obviously the staff there has done a tremendous job. But Denver's developments on offense and defense, combined with solid special teams, took the team on an 11-game winning streak and clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs. After accommodating Tim Tebow in 2011, the Broncos completely overhauled their offense to adapt to Peyton Manning in 2012, with superb results.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan (WAS)
Last Year: Dick LeBeau (PIT)

Numerous assistants had good years, and I don't understand why defensive coordinator Gus Bradley (SEA) isn't being mentioned as a head coaching candidate, but in my mind, Kyle Shanahan stands alone here. Washington ran the most innovative offense the league has seen in two decades or more, incorporating the option and getting a 102.4 passer rating out of a rookie QB with no standout receivers. Shanahan was a successful coordinator in Houston, but he outdid himself this season. If you asked me who is most responsible for Washington's improvement this season, I'm not sure I'd put RG3 ahead of his offensive coordinator.

2012 All-Pro Team

QB Tom Brady, NE
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN
FB Darrel Young, WAS
WR Calvin Johnson, DET
WR Brandon Marshall, CHI
WR Andre Johnson, HOU
TE Jason Witten, DAL
TE Tony Gonzalez, ATL
C Mike Pouncey, MIA
G Mike Iupati, SF
G Andy Levitre, BUF
OT Duane Brown, HOU
OT Joe Staley, SF

DT Geno Atkins, CIN
DT Justin Smith, SF
DE J.J. Watt, HOU
DE Calais Campbell, ARI
OLB Von Miller, DEN
OLB Jerod Mayo, NE
ILB Daryl Washington, ARI
ILB NaVorro Bowman, SF
CB Charles Tillman, CHI
CB Richard Sherman, SEA
CB Antonio Cromartie, NYJ
FS Thomas DeCoud, ATL
SS Glover Quin, HOU

K Blair Walsh, MIN
P Andy Lee, SF
KR Leodis McKelvin, BUF

Off POY — Adrian Peterson, MIN
Def POY — J.J. Watt, HOU
ST POY — Blair Walsh, MIN
MVP — Peyton Manning, DEN
Off Rookie — Robert Griffin III, WAS
Def Rookie — Casey Hayward, GB
Coach — John Fox, DEN
Assistant — Kyle Shanahan, WAS

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:20 PM | Comments (1)

College Football Predictions in 2013

As we turn to a new year, it's time to make some really early predictions for what next season has in store.

We've had some surprises already in the aptly named "silly season." Bret Bielema surprised many by bolting to Arkansas from Wisconsin. Tommy Tuberville surprised everyone by leaving for Cincy. And we'll have more stories unfold; especially as Chip Kelly's NFL rumors heat up after the Fiesta Bowl. What else could happen this fall when the new season kicks off? Here are some predictions for what's to come.

San Diego State will return to the Mountain West. Similar to Boise State, the Aztecs will make the eventual shift back to their current stomping grounds. The Big East is collapsing within itself and with absolutely no value left for making a move to play schools on the other side of the country, San Diego State will rejoin the Mountain West. Whether the conference helps them pay their exit fee, as they reportedly are doing for Boise State, is another story.

2013 will be Mack Brown's last year. It will not be Steve Spurrier's last season. Mack Brown just doesn't seem to be having as much fun as he once was. The Longhorns are still a work in progress and likely won't be the national or conference favorites come next season (watch TCU in the Big 12 next year, by the way). The coach will bow out at the conclusion of next season. As for Spurrier, he's not going anywhere just yet. He'll have another good team lined up next year and likely will stay around at least two more seasons.

The hottest seat belongs to Lane Kiffin. The appearance (or lack thereof) on and off the field in El Paso, coupled with an underwhelming season from start to finish, means that Kiffin has to be on the edge of unemployment. How Pat Haden hasn't shown him the door already is a bit of a shock. USC alums have to be outraged at the way their players and coaches acted during their time at the Sun Bowl. Enough eventually has to be enough for the Trojans. However, it's comic relief for the Volunteer fans he burned back in Knoxville, who have to be enjoying his collapse.

Southern Miss will win a football game. I'm just saying.

Johnny Manziel will not win the Heisman. The target will be too big this year, despite how freakishly good Manziel is. However, he will lead the Aggies to another solid season. Make that, two more solid seasons.

Urban Meyer will be back in the title game. Urban will take on the SEC's best next year in the title game. Despite some holes that need to be filled next season, I don't see anyone in the Big Ten making a run at the Buckeyes next season. Which, if that's the case, you can expect Braxton Miller to be in the thick of the Heisman race. But there's no doubt that Ohio State will start the season high and most likely will find a way to play for the BCS title.

The team who's stock will fall furthest? West Virginia. This one took some thought, as I believe Kansas State will take a step back with Collin Klein's departure. However, Geno Smith's departure will set the Mountaineers back further. Dana Holgerson has his work cut out for him. He can bring WVU back up; the fans will have to show him some patience.

If Aaron Murray retuns, I'll take Georgia vs. Ohio State for the 2013-14 BCS title game. If he bolts for the NFL, I'll have to take a step back. Georgia will be loaded no matter the situation. However, Murray's veteran presence would be a huge benefit next year.

Texas Tech will play Cincinnati in the Pinstripe Bowl. It will be as entertaining and intense as expected. Texas Tech will win it too, adding to Kliff Kingsbury's lore in Lubbock.

Army will finally beat Navy. Just a hunch. Besides, some predictions have to be out there, right?

Western Kentucky will go 2-0 vs. the SEC. The Bobby Petrino era in Bowling Green will start with a win over Kentucky, followed by a close shootout win over Tennessee, which will send Clay Travis into new levels of lunacy. On a related note, this year's Sun Belt Media Days will be its biggest ever. Easily.

James Franklin will get at least a reprimand from the SEC. Franklin, to me, is like a cross between Dabo Swinney and Bo Pelini when it comes to emotions. Sometime, I see the Pelini side of him boiling over and the SEC coming down on him. I'll go ahead and say it will happen next season.

And on a final note, next week's title game will go something like: Alabama 24, Notre Dame 21.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:01 PM | Comments (0)

January 1, 2013

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Best announcers this season: Mike Mayock, Dan Fouts, and Brad Nessler.

* Worst announcers this season: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick. Please, make it stop.

* Wes Welker caught 118 passes this year, his 5th 100-catch season, an NFL record.

* The Cardinals' season-high for yards from scrimmage this season was 375. Every other team topped 400 at least once. The Cardinals even played two overtime games, and they never hit 400. Perhaps just as amazing, in their five wins, they never broke 300.

* Context: 28 teams averaged 300 yards a game. 17 teams averaged 350. The Patriots, Saints, and Lions averaged 400. Arizona didn't reach that mark once. Incredible.

***

I realize the Cardinals were terrible this season, but defensive standouts Calais Campbell and Daryl Washington deserve trips to Hawaii. The Pro Bowl voting is unduly influenced by name recognition and sack totals. Overall, the Pro Bowl choices were actually pretty good this year. For the first time in memory, I even like the punters. But all the defensive ends are 4-3 pass rushers, and all the outside linebackers are 3-4 pass rushers. What about Wesley Woodyard and Lance Briggs, or Campbell and Corey Liuget? How about Chad Greenway or Rob Jackson?

You won't read much below about MVP candidates, or about the exceptional accomplishments of Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, J.J. Watt, and others. Check back tomorrow for the Sports Central All-Pro team, including awards like Most Valuable Player, Coach of the Year, and Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year. For now, the final power rankings of 2012 show current strength, an end-of-season rating, and brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Denver Broncos [1] — To illustrate how well the Broncos have been playing lately, the last time they won by less than 7 was October 7th (Week 5), when they lost to the Patriots. Following a 2-3 start, they won 11 in a row and clinched homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Their next game will be at home, possibly against the Ravens, whom they beat 34-17 in Baltimore two weeks ago. However, Denver played a pretty easy schedule during the win streak, with only two opponents (Baltimore and Cincinnati) who finished .500 or better. It's fair to question whether the team is really battle-tested.

2. Seattle Seahawks [2] — Bring a five-game winning streak, the NFL's third-longest, into Washington, where they'll face the team with the second-longest (7). The Seahawks went undefeated at home in 2012, the only team to do so, but they were 3-5 away, and that includes one win in Toronto, arguably a neutral site. Despite the home/road splits, I'm predicting Seattle by a touchdown. The wild cards in the NFC are much more dangerous than those in the AFC.

3. San Francisco 49ers [4] — Earned a first-round bye and a matchup with either Green Bay or the winner of Seattle at Washington. If I'm a Niners fan, I don't want to see Seattle. San Francisco beat the Packers on the road in Week 1. The 49ers have 9 Pro Bowlers, most in the NFL.

4. New England Patriots [5] — Led the NFL in scoring (557) and point differential (+226), and went 6-0 in the AFC East, the only team besides Denver to sweep its division. Rob Ninkovich left Sunday's game with an injury. His status for the playoffs isn't clear yet, but Ninkovich is one of the team's best defenders, and his absence would be a major problem. What does Logan Mankins have to do to miss the Pro Bowl? This is the second time in the last three years that he's been chosen despite missing six or more games.

5. Green Bay Packers [3] — Since realignment, teams that lose in Week 17 are 12-15 in the wild card round of the playoffs (.444). If the regular season is any clue at all, though, you'll want to go with most of the home teams next weekend. The most extreme example is Minnesota at Green Bay. Both teams went 7-1 at home this season, but the Vikings were just 3-5 on the road. If you put a 7-1 team and a 3-5 team on a neutral field, it would be pretty easy to guess the winner, right? Packers by 6.

6. Minnesota Vikings [11] — Four wins in a row, including the Bears, Texans, and Packers. I'll have more to say about Adrian Peterson in my All-Pro column tomorrow, and he's obviously the team's most valuable player, but who's second? Maybe Jared Allen? Or maybe rookie kicker Blair Walsh, who led the NFL in field goals (35) and went 10/10 from 50 yards and beyond, a record.

7. Washington Redskins [7] — Seventh win in a row, the third-longest streak of Mike Shanahan's career. I haven't written much this season about rookie running back Alfred Morris, but he rushed for 200 yards and 3 TDs in Week 17, setting a team record for single-season rushing yardage (1,613). It's the 3rd-highest rushing total ever by a rookie, behind only Eric Dickerson (1,808) and George Rogers (1,674). The last rookie RB to top 1,500? Clinton Portis, who played for Shanahan in 2002.

8. Atlanta Falcons [6] — Played their starters the whole way in Week 17, which I think was a good idea, but it didn't work out, because (1) they lost, to a team that hadn't won in a month, and (2) John Abraham and Dunta Robinson left the game with injuries. The Falcons have a bye, and Robinson should be fine for the playoffs, but Abraham's ankle might be a problem.

9. Cincinnati Bengals [8] — Rematch of last year's wild card loss, as they once again travel to Houston for a playoff game. The Bengals have won seven of their last eight, and they actually have a better record on the road (6-2) than at home (4-4). But I'm going with Houston. Both teams have played horrible offense the last few weeks. Andy Dalton's stat line for December: 180 yds/gm, 4 TD, 5 INT, 4 sacks/gm (11.5 sck%), 71.3 rating. Texans by 7.

10. Baltimore Ravens [10] — I'm sure there are still some fans for whom it's weird to hear that the playoffs will feature the Colts playing on the road at Baltimore. Indianapolis actually had a better record (11-5) than the Ravens (10-6), but I'm going with the home team. Baltimore has a huge home-field advantage (6-2 this year), and the Colts were just average on the road (4-4). Baltimore by 10.

11. Carolina Panthers [16] — Ended the season with four straight wins and scored 5 rushing TDs against the Saints. Leading rushers this season:

Maybe they can streamline that a bit in 2013.

12. Indianapolis Colts [15] — Travel to Baltimore for a wild card playoff matchup. The Colts went 4-4 on the road this season, but the teams they beat had a combined record of 14-50. Their road losses were by a combined score of 164-71 (an average of 41-18).

13. Chicago Bears [14] — Finished 10-6 and fired head coach Lovie Smith. In nine seasons with the Bears, Smith went 81-63 and led the team to a record of 7-9 or better each of the last eight years. They won three division titles and played in two NFC Championship Games. Chicago was a combined 29-19 the last three seasons. I understand feeling like it's time to move on, but I don't understand who the Bears think they can get that will do better. Twenty bucks says the Bears are worse than 10-6 two years from now.

14. Houston Texans [9] — Andre Johnson gained a career-high 1,598 receiving yards this season. However, the Texans were 6-0 when he gained under 75 yards, compared to 6-4 when he gained 75 or more. Houston has 8 Pro Bowlers, most in the AFC.

15. New York Giants [18] — When they play like they did against Philadelphia (42-7) or New Orleans (52-27) or Green Bay (38-10), it makes you wonder how they mail it in for games like Baltimore (33-14), Atlanta (34-0) and Cincinnati (31-13). The Giants scored more TDs in the first quarter this week than in the previous two games combined.

I know Victor Cruz has a look-at-me end zone dance, but I don't understand how Cruz, 10th in the NFC with 1,092 receiving yards, made it to the Pro Bowl ahead of Roddy White (1,351), Dez Bryant (1,382), and Vincent Jackson (1,384). Cruz ranked 7th in the conference in receptions, 10th in yards, 13th in first downs, tied for 4th in TDs. That's a good season, but only four WRs go to the Pro Bowl. Is the salsa dance really worth 300 yards?

16. New Orleans Saints [12] — Allowed 400 yards for the 12th time this season (most in NFL history) and 500 for the 4th time (most in a quarter-century). Their season total of 7,042 easily broke the record of 6,793 allowed by the 1981 Baltimore Colts. Sean Payton, who was suspended for the entirety of the 2012 season, signed an extension last week and will return as head coach in 2013.

17. Dallas Cowboys [13] — I believe Tony Romo is a good quarterback. He's never had a passer rating below 90, and he's thrown almost twice as many TDs (177) as INTs (91). Best TD/INT differential, 2006-12:

1. Tom Brady, +154
2. Drew Brees, +132
3. Aaron Rodgers, +126
4. Peyton Manning, +113
5. Philip Rivers, +96
6. Tony Romo, +86
7. Ben Roethlisberger, +69
8. Matt Ryan, +67
9. Eli Manning, +63
t10. Donovan McNabb and Matt Schaub, +49

This season, Romo passed for a career-high 4,903 yards (3rd-most in the NFL) and threw for 28 TDs (6th-most). He's a good player, underrated because his mistakes get so much publicity. But when you're trying to shake a reputation for choking, it's really best to avoid throwing 3 interceptions in the critical season finale against your biggest rival.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers [19] — Rashard Mendenhall, who had 1 receiving yard, tied for the team lead in receptions in their victory over Cleveland. Pittsburgh's biggest problems this season were injury-related, but that doesn't automatically mean the Steelers will be better next year. The team needs to bring in more young talent, especially on the aging defense, and upgrade its offensive line, including the bench.

19. Miami Dolphins [17] — In the last six weeks, they beat the Seahawks, and crushed the Jaguars and Bills by a combined 48-13. They lost the other three, but against elite teams (the 49ers and the Patriots twice). 28-0 blowout in Week 17 notwithstanding, that's a decent finish. The priority this offseason has got to be a downfield receiving threat. Mike Wallace might be a good fit.

20. St. Louis Rams [20] — Offseason priority is clear: they had no receivers with over 700 yards this season.

21. San Diego Chargers [22] — Won their final two games, and three of the last four. Norv Turner has been fired, and I don't think that's a bad move for the team. But during his six years in San Diego, Turner went 56-40 (an undefeated season over .500), won three division titles, and made an AFC Championship Game. The Chargers outscored their opponents all six years, and never finished worse than 7-9. Only six coaches won more games in those seasons than Turner: Bill Belichick (NE), Mike McCarthy (GB), Mike Tomlin (PIT), Mike Smith (ATL), John Harbaugh (BAL), and Tom Coughlin (NYG). Overall, Turner has 114 wins as a head coach, more than John Madden (103), Vince Lombardi (96), or Bill Walsh (92). Turner won more playoff and postseason games than George Allen, Ted Marchibroda, or Steve Mariucci.

This was probably Turner's last shot at an NFL head coaching job, and most fans will remember him as a failure. That's not fair for a coach who also enjoyed some real success in both Washington and San Diego.

22. Cleveland Browns [21] — Fired general manager Tom Heckert and head coach Pat Shurmur after only two years. The team says it will hire a new coach before replacing Heckert. That always works out well.

23. Buffalo Bills [26] — Sunday was a bad day for setting records. C.J. Spiller caught a 66-yard TD pass, but he rushed 24 times for only 59 yards, dropping his average to 6.01, well below Jim Brown's single-season record (6.40). Adrian Peterson came up barely short of the single-season rushing record, neither J.J. Watt nor Aldon Smith got any sacks, and Calvin Johnson fell shy of 2,000 receiving yards.

The Bills have fired head coach Chan Gailey after three seasons. No Bills coach has lasted four seasons since Marv Levy retired in 1997. Wade Phillips (29-19), Gregg Williams (17-31), Mike Mularkey (14-18), Dick Jauron (24-33), Perry Fewell (3-4), and now Gailey (16-32) haven't gotten much time to prove themselves. You know, maybe the problem isn't the coaches.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [24] — Broke a five-game losing streak to finish a respectable 7-9. That's not bad when you consider that the 2011 Bucs lost their last 10 in a row and got outscored by 207. Every team in the NFC South went 3-3 in division games this year.

25. Tennessee Titans [27] — Sandwiched a 48-point loss between victories over the Jets and Jaguars. With 3:04 left in the second quarter of the win over Jacksonville, the Titans punted. Their offense didn't get the ball back until 10:25 of the third quarter, but Tennessee scored 28 points in the interim. That's two punt return TDs (Darius Reynaud), two INT return TDs (Zach Brown), zero offensive plays, and 28 points.

26. Oakland Raiders [30] — Last year, they set an NFL record with 163 penalties for 1,358 yards. This season, they ranked 8th in penalties: 108 for 939 yards. That's still not good, but it's a lot better: 55 penalties, 400 penalty yards. The Raiders won four games this season. Three of them were against 2-14 teams (the Jaguars, and the Chiefs twice).

27. Arizona Cardinals [28] — Defense allowed just 201 passing yards per game, 5th-best in the NFL, and a passer rating of just 71.2, best in the league. Yes, better than the Bears (71.3) or Seahawks (71.8) or 49ers (78.0). The Cardinals won their first road game, at New England in Week 2, then dropped the next seven in a row. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt and GM Rod Graves were both fired on Monday.

28. Detroit Lions [29] — Lost their last eight in a row, but they never stopped trying, and they gave some good teams a fight. That's more than you can say for the next couple teams.

29. Philadelphia Eagles [23] — Parted ways with their most successful coach since Greasy Neale. You can tell by the way his players gave it their best in Week 17 that they supported Andy Reid and ... oh, wait. The Eagles opened 3-1, then lost 11 of their last 12. They actually ranked 15th in both yards and yards allowed, but 29th in points and points allowed. That will happen when you're -24 in turnovers.

30. New York Jets [25] — Fired GM Mike Tannenbaum, but Rex Ryan will get another year. The Jets scored under 20 points in each of their last six games, and eight of the last nine. In what Jets fans hope will be his final game as the team's starting quarterback, Mark Sanchez completed under 50% of his passes, committed 2 turnovers, and posted a 55.1 passer rating. This season, Sanchez was under 50% completions eight times — most in the NFL, and more than half his starts. Andrew Luck (50% or lower seven times) and Chad Henne (four times in six starts) were also negatively distinguished.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — The Colts went 7-1 at home this season. The Jaguars went 2-14 overall. One of those two wins? At Indianapolis.

32. Kansas City Chiefs [32] — Clinched the top draft pick for 2013, and fired head coach Romeo Crennel after only one year. As badly as other offenses played this year — Arizona, Jacksonville, the Jets — Kansas City scored the fewest points in the league by 39 (2½ per game). The passing game is a particular problem. I'd like to see them bring in a veteran QB and draft some receivers.

Most games this season throwing more INTs than TDs:

1. Mark Sanchez, NYJ, 7
t2. Matt Cassel, KC, 6
t2. Brady Quinn, KC, 6
t2. Ryan Tannehill, MIA, 6
t2. Brandon Weeden, CLE, 6

The Chiefs had 50% more such games (12) than the second-worst Cardinals and Jets (8 each). They tied Philadelphia for the worst turnover differential this season, -24.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:36 PM | Comments (0)

The Immaculate Collection

It's been poked and prodded over for the couple of weeks. The pre-Christmas announcement for the seven Catholic (and non-football) universities to leave the Big East conference is still in its formative stages. But the decision's real, and the move's coming.

In the short term, this deal basically crushes the Big East's prowess as a basketball power. Now, I know that it been pecked at for the last couple of years. But those initial cracks in the cement have led the way for the partial crumbling of the foundation. What the football brethren of the Big East did slowly over time, the restocked basketball conglomerate equally accomplished in the matter of a few short sentences.

And, to be honest, I kind of like it.

One of the reasons that college basketball has continued to be my favorite sport to follow is the dynamics within its own ranks. When you look at professional sports, there's not much difference between the competing teams. While fan bases in a specific city vary, there's not much that changes when you go from one pro team to the next regarding personnel, philosophy, or basic management.

Division I (or FBS) college football is a bit more varied, but not too much. You basically have your power group (BCS) and your group striving for their shot (non-BCS). If you are fortunate enough to be in the former group of schools, that means a leg up on all of the amenities, resources, and talent. If you find yourself in the latter, it means scratching and clawing your way to get one, maybe two, shots at the big time. Bottom line ... you are what you are.

Even though that same principle can be applied to college basketball, there's more variety here than in any other sport (in my humble opinion). Among the top-tier programs, cycles emerge where you can gain or lose credibility based on your performance. That allows more middle-tier schools to redefine their status for the better. And even the grouping of schools that get the least amount of respect can earn their way up the ladder.

This, to me, is why conferences like the Atlantic 10, Colonial, Missouri Valley, and Mountain West have all had their moments amongst, and ahead of, the behemoths.

Which brings me back to the Catholic 7. Let's say they decide to split and join other conferences with similar connections (be it religious or geographical). Despite having to sit out a couple of NCAA tournament, their separate histories would add instant credibility to any association with their new confidants.

However, if they stay together and form a new conference, it would be fascinating to see where they stood in the landscape of the game. Among the members, you would have 164 Big Dance invites, with every school having at least one Final Four banner, five schools getting to the title game, and three boasting National Champions.

It would have its basis in some of the top cities in the country (New York, Washington D.C., Chicago, Philadelphia, and nearby Boston). You could even think about using the educational perks that these institutions can provide as a recruiting tool.

Then again, why stop at just seven schools? With the religious theme in tow, this collective could take on a few more members. As has been said recently, wouldn't you think this might interest schools such as Dayton, Xavier, Creighton, and more?

So, while I do express some sorrow for the impending breakup of the first successful basketball megaconference (remember, the WAC didn't quite work out), I am excited to see what grows out of this discontent. In the end, they may not stay all together, but they are all for one.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 1:35 PM | Comments (0)