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December 28, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Chicago @ Detroit (+4)

In Detroit's 31-18 loss to Atlanta last week, Calvin Johnson amassed 225 yards receiving to shatter Jerry Rice's single-season record of 1,848 yards. With 1,892 yards, Johnson needs 108 yards to eclipse the 2,000 mark.

"I'm very humbled by the record," Johnson said. "Unfortunately, we're 4-11, and again assured of double-digit losses. That sounds like a 'broken record."

The 9-6 Bears could capture the NFC's last playoff berth with a win over the Lions and a Vikings' loss to the Packers.

"Some say the Bears' could make a championship run if we qualify for the playoffs," Lovie Smith said. "Some say that's 'Chicago Bull.'

"As it is, we'll need help from the Packers. We're not likely to get it. The Packers could knock two division rivals out of the playoffs with one win. Green Bay may be playing in the climate-controlled confines of Mall of America Stadium and not in Lambeau Field, but that's cold."

Detroit wins, 27-23.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-4)

The 5-10 Titans host the 2-13 Jaguars in the season finale for both teams.

"There's not a person on either teams' bandwagon," Mike Munchak said. "In other words, 'nothing's riding' on this game."

Last week, the Jags took a 13-3 lead on the Patriots before falling 23-16.

"We had the Patriots right where we wanted them," Mike Mularkey said. "And that's the only thing Jaguars' management has had 'right where they wanted it' all year."

Jacksonville wins, 22-17.

Houston @ Indianapolis (+7)

While the Texans have clinched the AFC South and the Colts have secured a wild card spot, Houston still needs a win to assure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. So Sunday's game at Lucas Oil Stadium has meaning.

"It's not for all the marbles," Matt Schaub said, "but just a few 'marbles.' That's why I'm thrilled that Ndamukong Suh won't be in Indianapolis."

The Texans should win and secure home-field advantage. Luckily for the Texans, they're an AFC team, because they can't beat NFC teams at home.

Houston wins, 30-20.

Green Bay @ Minnesota (+3)

The Packers have clinched the NFC North and can lock up a first-round bye with a win in Minnesota. To do so, they'll need to stop Adrian Peterson, who needs 208 yards to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record.

"Dickerson can rest easy," Dom Capers said, "and so can his jheri curls. That's why we're calling Dickerson the 'relaxer.'

"Peterson will find the going 'rocky' on Sunday. So 'rocky,' in fact, that Packers' defenders will be saying, 'No! Adrian!'"

Peterson falls short of the record, and the Packers win, 31-19.

Miami @ New England (-11)

The 11-4 Patriots could be seed anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4 depending on the outcome of Sunday's games involving the Texans, Broncos, and Ravens. With a win, they are assured of no worse than the No. 3 seed.

"No worse than the No. 3 seed?" Bill Belichick said. "For us, we can do no better than the No. 4 seed. Why? It's simple. As the No. 4 seed, we'd host the Colts in wintry New England, which, as Peyton Manning could tell you, is practically a sure win for the Pats. Then we'd go to Houston to face the Texans, whom we pummeled 42-14 in Week 14.

"Therein lies our predicament: do we 'stand Pat,' or do we lay down? If we 'lay down,' we get the No. 4 seed. We'll, if you take the 'down' from 'lay down,' and the '4' from 'No. 4,' you have your answer. It's 'fourth down.' This time, I'm not going for it."

Indeed, the Patriots and Belichick have a decision to make. Are they underrated, or overrated?

The Pats take an early lead and rest in the second half. Miami wins, 27-20.

Carolina@ New Orleans (-4)

Will Sean Payton be back on the sidelines next year for the Saints? And, for that matter, will Ron Rivera return in 2013 for the surging Panthers?

"I plan to be back," Rivera said. "As for Payton's return, I'll answer with the most-used piece of advice in New Orleans this year: 'Don't put money on it.'"

Carolina pulls the upset, 30-27.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-7)

What do you call the Ravens after destroying the Giants last week, 33-14? "Giant killers." What do you call the Giants after collapsing in the same crucial game? "Giant keelers."

"I've asked my team to find a little pride," Tom Coughlin said. "If I have to act like the Falcons and Ravens and 'beat it out of them,' I will."

Michael Vick is back! Vick will start Sunday in place of Nick Foles, who broke his hand last week against the Redskins.

"Nick broke it when he was 'handed' the job by Andy Reid," Vick said. "Or maybe he injured it waving 'goodbye' to Reid for the last 10 weeks."

The G-Men need a win and losses by the Vikings, Cowboys, Bears, Lakers, Heat, Magic, and the Jamaican bobsled team in order to make the playoffs. As is their custom, the Giants play their best game in their last game, smashing the Eagles, 34-14, but missing the playoffs.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-3½)

The Steelers were eliminated from playoff contention with a 13-10 loss to the Bengals in Pittsburgh last week. Ben Roethlisberger threw two costly interceptions as Pittsburgh fell to 7-8.

"Losing to the Bengals in Pittsburgh was indeed costly," Mike Tomlin said. "There are a number of things we could have done better to change the outcome. But 'Heinz-sight' is 20/20."

It will be chilly in Pittsburgh, with temperatures forecast in the 20s. If you're a Brown, how do you stay warm on the visiting sideline? With a "Cleveland Steamer," of course.

Pittsburgh wins 27-13.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-7)

The Falcons locked up the top seed in the NFC playoffs with last Saturday's 31-18 win in Detroit.

"Some say our 28th-ranked rushing attack will be our downfall in the playoffs," Mike Smith said. "That begs the question: What's the 'running joke?' Our rushing game, or my 0-3 playoff record?"

Atlanta wins, 34-17.

NY Jets @ Buffalo (-3)

The 5-10 Bills host the 6-9 Jets in a battle of the bottom two teams in the AFC East.

"Despite what may have been reported," Tim Tebow said, "I did not tell Rex Ryan that I would not to be a part of any wildcat offense last Sunday against the Chargers. On the contrary, I only say 'No' to sex and drugs."

With Greg McElroy out with a concussion, Mark Sanchez is back as the Jets' starter. Sanchez wears No. 6, which, if you ask Ryan, is the "number of the best."

Buffalo wins, 23-17.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-3)

The Ravens embarrassed the Giants 33-14 last week, as Baltimore ended a three-game skid. With a win and a Patriots loss to the Dolphins, John Harbaugh's crew would be the AFC's No. 3 seed.

"For the first time in a while," Harbaugh said, "we played good Ravens' football. Thus, I could proudly say, 'That's So Raven.' Before, we were average at best, so all I could say was, 'That's So-So Raven.'"

The Bengals earned their spot in the playoffs with a gritty 13-10 win at Pittsburgh last Sunday. Regardless of Sunday's outcome, Cincinnati will be the AFC's No. 6 seed.

"We could very well face the Ravens next week in the wild card round," Marvin Lewis said. "I think that means both teams will be careful on Sunday not to 'show their hands.'"

And speaking of a "show of hands," if you think the Ravens or Bengals have any chance in hell to make it to the Super Bowl, raise your hand.

Cincinnati wins, 24-23.

Kansas City @ Denver (-16)

With a win Sunday, the Broncos clinch a first-round bye and would finish the regular-season 13-3, with a 6-0 division record.

"I'm a lot like the Colts' front office," Manning said. "Never in my wildest dreams did I think I would have this kind of success after leaving Indianapolis.

"Not only that, I'm atop the Pro Bowl balloting and I've opened 21 Papa John's franchises. Pizza Hut almost sold me with their 'Pizza Hut 1! Hut 2! Hut 3!' advertising campaign, but I decided Papa John's was my best option."

Unlike the Broncos, the Chiefs don't have a franchise quarterback, with pizza or football. Manning throws for 308 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Denver wins, 34-13.

Oakland @ San Diego (-9)

With Carson Palmer sidelined with cracked ribs and a bruised lung, Raiders' head coach Dennis Allen expects either Matt Leinart or Terrelle Pryor, or both, to play on Sunday.

"Pryor has never started an NFL game," Allen said. "So he's yet to get his feet wet. Leinart, on the other hand, is more experienced, and gets his feet wet all the time, especially since most of his time is spent in the hot tub. It's no coincidence that 'hot tub' rhymes with 'scrub.'"

San Diego wins 31-12.

Arizona @ San Francisco (-16½)

So, the Cardinal's Beanie Wells thinks his time in Arizona is nearing an end, and said Sunday's game in San Francisco will be his "audition" for 31 other teams. That makes sense, because for his so-called "audition," only one other team is showing up.

It all makes for an interesting situation in Arizona — it's the first time Larry Fitzgerald wished he was Beanie Wells. And that happens to be the only "first" in Glendale this year.

San Francisco wins, 31-11.

St. Louis @ Seattle (-1 ½)

Pete Carroll considered running up the score in the Seahawks' 42-14 win over the 49ers last week, but chose not to and was lauded for his show of class.

"Much like many of my USC scholar-athletes during my time in Los Angeles," Carroll said, "I was tempted to 'skip class.' And unlike many of those scholar-athletes, I chose not to."

Seattle wins, 27-20.

Dallas @ Washington (-3½)

The winner of Sunday's contest at FedEx Field captures the NFC East title. Even with a loss, Dallas still has a slim chance to qualify for the postseason, but for Washington, it's win or stay home. When the 'Skins and Cowboys met in Cowboys Stadium, Washington left with a convincing 38-31 win. The 'Skins haven't lost since.

"That's called being 'in the black,'" Robert Griffin III said. "Now, where my relationship with the opposite sex is concerned, I'm 'in the white.'"

Dallas wins, 34-31.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:13 AM | Comments (0)

December 27, 2012

Christmas Wins Give Fresh Starts

NBA action on Christmas Day brought its usual yuletide cheer to ABC and ESPN, but it also started the righting of a league that has been a bit upside-down a third of the way through its schedule.

The Christmas centerpiece was the rematch of last year's NBA Finals, which drew a 6.0 overnight in the early evening slot on ABC, as the Miami Heat served notice that they — and not their upstart Thunder opponents, nor the much-publicized fantasy team the Buss family is collecting in L.A. — are still the team to beat. In an otherwise unrecognizable conference that has the Knicks and Pacers leading their divisions, Miami remains the constant force in the East, now winners of six straight, while OKC is still a familiar favorite in the West.

Over on ESPN, the Houston Rockets continued their climb through the standings with a new backcourt duo of Jeremy Lin and James Harden, beating the nondescript Bulls for their fifth straight. And in Los Angeles, the Clippers set a new franchise high, outlasting the Denver Nuggets for their 14th in a row. But the real heavy lifting needed to conform the NBA standings to our expectations came earlier in the day in Brooklyn and Los Angeles.

Excepting last season, which opened on Christmas Day, you'd have to go back to 2006 to find a Boston Celtics team that hadn't wrapped up the Atlantic Division before the arrival of St. Nick. This year has been different. The C's have looked up at the Knicks and Nets since before Halloween. To date, they haven't won more than three games in a row — which they've done only once — nor have they been more than three games above .500. They've already lost three times to the Bucks and twice each to division rivals Philly and the Nets, and Brooklyn was set to make it three straight in front of an impassionate crowd punch-drunk in the limelight of the first professional sporting event ever played in their New York City borough.

It's been a similar story for the Lakers, where the seeds of their four consecutive Pacific crowns had all been sown by Christmas Days passed. Yet, in spite of all the firepower their All-Hall-of-Fame lineup should bring, they're not even regarded as the best team in Los Angeles this year. With all talk (the season began with Metta World Peace suggesting 73 wins was in the realm of Laker possibilities) and few results, the Lakers have been the ass clowns of professional basketball, the NBA's answer to the New York Jets.

Five games into 2012-13, GM Mitch "Tannenbaum" Kupchak fired his head coach and didn't come up with a Plan B until Mike Brown's seat was no longer warm. That plan involved the courtship of a burnt-out retiree with a plethora of prima donna employment demands who was nevertheless their best candidate. Then, in an inexplicable display of dysfunctionality, they severed ties with him in favor of a guy just coming off surgery not even physically fit enough to take the job. On top of the front office hijinks, Kobe Bryant has been doing his best Bart Scott impressions as the self-appointed spokesman who threatens to kick everyone's ass, while Peace has taken on the role of Tim Tebow, the malcontent who doesn't want to sit on the bench. All that is needed is Mike D'Antoni doing a few pressers donned in a wig, and the illusion will be complete.

Yet, of the two teams, the Celtics' condition was the more dire. At 11-17 all-time, they never play well on Christmas Day. Those losses leave a bad taste in everyone's mouth, and can spoil even championship years. Take the infamous 1983 game when the C's blew a 25-point lead to Patrick Ewing and the Knicks. It ate at them all season to the point where, doused in champagne after beating the Lakers for the NBA title in June, the late Dennis Johnson's jubilance melted in an instant when a reporter joked that the following year's schedule had just came out with another Christmas Day game on it. In 2008, their defending championship team brought a 19-game winning streak and all-time best 27-2 record to the Staples Center, but a Christmas Day loss to the Lakers sent them on a 2-7 spiral and they never made it back to the Finals. The back half of an entire season can be riding on Christmas Day in Boston.

Nowadays by Christmas, the Celtics have usually resorted to dispensing their limited health and energy with the frugality of Scrooge. However, they still know the opportune times to turn it on, and Tuesday was one of those times. A solid win over the sputtering Nets was nevertheless impressive as it was welcomed, elevating Boston over .500 once again. But the reservoir of youth is depleting, and that could mean a short stint with a winning record for the C's, whose starters will be on minutes counts and life support tonight in Los Angeles, where the Clippers look to make them their 15th victims.

The Lakers, on the other hand, embrace the national spotlight. They should. Tuesday marked their 39th Christmas Day game, and they finally look to be getting the band back together again. Their win over the Knicks was only the fourth game in which Pau Gasol and Steve Nash played together this year. It also capped their first five-game winning streak of the young season, and helped them reach .500 for only the second time.

It's as if the Lakers had spotted the field the first 28 games and were now ready to play out the real season. By Christmas night, their 14-14 mark had the feel of 0-0, like someone had just hit the reset button. But much like the faux season just ended, things once again started out on the wrong foot for the Lakers last night with a defenseless effort in Denver.

For the second straight night, Kobe Bryant launched 24 shots and had big scoring numbers to show for it, which increasingly defines the concept of modern-day Showtime that resided at Lakers games in decades past but has, as Magic Johnson recently surmised, moved on to the Clippers. And with the ill-tempered Dwight Howard getting himself ejected in what could have been a statement game, followed by coach Mike D'Antoni suggesting his absence was of little handicap, the buffoonery doesn't so much look to have disappeared as to have taken a short intermission before its second act.

The Lakers' recent five-game winning streak effectively gave them a mulligan on a 9-14 start, but the West is too deep and the schedule too grueling to think they're going to get another. They've assembled the first Big-Five team in NBA history, but are just a few more antics away from becoming the biggest busts the league has ever seen.

Los Angeles may have physically evolved with the additions of Nash and Howard, but they've yet to prove they have evolved mentally in the way the Clippers have. And if they don't do so soon enough, D'Antoni may as well just wear a wig the next time he takes the podium to explain how Howard was another non-factor.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 2:02 PM | Comments (0)

December 26, 2012

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Passing yards are overrated. This week, Peyton Manning passed for a season-high 339 yards. That is the 58th-highest total this season. Chad Henne and Nick Foles have topped that mark twice each.

* If I could only pick one stat to judge QBs, and it had to be something pretty basic, I'd go with TD/INT differential. The current top five: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Manning, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan. That seems reasonable.

* Nice job by Michele Tafoya illustrating the magnitude of crowd noise in Seattle.

* My friend GG just won her 12-team fantasy league for the second time in three years. With Sam Bradford starting at QB. (By way of explanation, she also had Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, and Cincinnati's defense.) Bradford was a Week 16 free agency add, replacing the dynamic tandem of Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers.

* Super Bowl XLVII: Denver Broncos def. Green Bay Packers.

***

The last couple of years, I've written a lot about player safety in the NFL. It's a real and significant problem, and I applaud Roger Goodell for making it a priority. Commissioner Goodell has repeatedly called public attention to safety issues, and he's taken action with new rules and the Saints' bounty issue.

Fundamentally, though, the league's efforts still look more like public relations than an earnest effort to protect players. Flags and fines are okay for most illegal hits, but deliberate head-hunting needs to draw suspensions. Just as important as punishing dangerous play, though, is not penalizing clean play. On Sunday night, Kam Chancellor knocked Vernon Davis out of the game. The hit drew flags from three different officials, and Tafoya called it "brutal" about 80 times. But replays showed that Chancellor's hit was within the rules, exactly the way the league says it wants defenders to play.

The replay prompted Cris Collinsworth to wonder, "If that isn't legal, I don't know what is ... outstanding defensive football." Al Michaels observed, "All they see is that head snap back." A 15-yard penalty with an automatic first down is a huge play, and although it didn't affect the outcome in Seattle's runaway victory, the league has to protect legal hits like that. I know it's hard to judge in real time whether a defender hits his opponent in the head or the shoulder, but the NFL should make those plays reviewable.

Power rankings are for current strength, and brackets show Week 15 rank.

1. Denver Broncos [1] — Tenth win in a row. This is the 4th time in Peyton Manning's career he has been on a team that won 10 games in a row (1999, 2005, 2009). It's his 7th season on a team with a winning streak that lasted half the season (eight games or more).

2. Seattle Seahawks [4] — Since 2010, the 49ers have allowed a 100-yard rusher only five times. Three of those five are Marshawn Lynch.

3. Green Bay Packers [6] — Out-gained Tennessee 460 yards to 180, with 28 first downs to the Titans' 10. They were +2 in turnovers and scored touchdowns on six of their seven trips to the red zone. Ryan Grant, who had consecutive 1,200-yard rushing seasons in 2008-09, rushed for 80 yards and 2 TDs on Sunday.

4. San Francisco 49ers [2] — Not the same team without Justin Smith. Aldon Smith's 19.5 sacks have generated Defensive Player of the Year discussion, but I'm not convinced he's one of the top three defenders on his own team. The man was invisible Sunday night without Justin creating opportunities for him.

5. New England Patriots [3] — Ranking drops mostly because they're caught in San Francisco's tide, and the Niners are dropping. A close win over lowly Jacksonville shouldn't lead anyone to believe this rating is too low.

The Patriots, Packers, and Broncos all started the season 1-2, and all were 3-3. Some analysts even called them "average." Yeah, right.

6. Atlanta Falcons [7] — Out-gained by 178 yards, but won on turnovers and red zone efficiency. The Falcons have won five of their last six, but the only opponent in that stretch with a winning record was the reeling Giants. The Falcons are a good team and they perform well in the clutch, but against good teams in the playoffs, I don't think it will be enough.

7. Washington Redskins [8] — Tried to draw the Eagles offsides on 4th down, but it didn't work and they took the delay of game penalty before punting. It was their first delay penalty all season. That's incredible for a team that's played two rookie quarterbacks. If Washington and San Francisco both win in Week 17, we'll see rookie QBs face off in the postseason for the second year in a row. Last January, Houston's T.J. Yates topped Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. This season, we'd get a more prestigious matchup, featuring Offensive Rookie of the Year contenders Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson.

8. Cincinnati Bengals [9] — Six wins in their last seven games. This week's triumph in Pittsburgh clinched a playoff spot and knocked the Steelers out of contention. Andy Dalton (2 INT, 58.8 rating) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (14 yds, 0.9 avg) did nothing, and Cincinnati's defense generated more points (7) than its offense (6). Even the Bengals' two field goals both came on drives of under 25 yards, set up by the defense. DT Geno Atkins had 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble.

9. Houston Texans [5] — They've lost two of their last three, and neither loss was close. The Texans did a nice job of containing Adrian Peterson (86 yds, 3.4 avg), but Arian Foster left the game with an irregular heartbeat and their offense disappeared, going 1/11 on third downs and generating under 200 yards. Foster apparently is fine, and he's expected to play in Week 17.

10. Baltimore Ravens [12] — Dannell Ellerbe returned to the lineup as Baltimore broke a three-game losing streak.

With Ellerbe: 10-2, 19.4 ppg allowed
Without Ellerbe: 0-3, 29.3 ppg allowed

Both Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce topped 100 rushing yards against the Giants. Anquan Boldin's injury is reportedly a shoulder bruise, so Ravens fans probably don't need to worry about his availability in the playoffs.

11. Minnesota Vikings [16] — Haven't lost since their Week 13 matchup with Green Bay, and now all they need to do to get in the playoffs is beat ... Green Bay. Peterson probably can't catch Eric Dickerson at this point, but he's 102 yards away from 2,000, and that is reachable.

12. New Orleans Saints [14] — Drew Brees and Tony Romo both passed for over 400 yards on Sunday. Their combined stat line was 63-of-96 for 862 yards, 7 TDs, no INTs, and only 2 sacks. Three receivers went over 100 yards, two went over 150, and Dez Bryant topped 200.

13. Dallas Cowboys [10] — They still win the NFC East if they win at Washington in Week 17. Some of the league's traditional rivalries have lost their ferocity in recent years. This should do nicely to reignite the classic Dallas/Washington conflict.

14. Chicago Bears [17] — Charles Tillman has 10 forced fumbles and 3 interception returns for touchdowns. If he'd done this last year, he probably would have been DPOY. This year, he might finish 4th in the voting.

15. Indianapolis Colts [13] — For the last month or so, I've been trying to explain why I see the Colts, now 10-5 and assured of a playoff spot, as a pretty average team. It's about who they've played and how they're winning. Indianapolis has faced the weakest strength of schedule in the league. This team has lost to the Jaguars and Jets, and hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since Week 5.

Over the last 10 games, the Colts have lost by double-digits to the Patriots and Texans, and their other opponents have a combined record of 35-85 (.292). You can't control your schedule, but against weak competition, a good team should win easily. This week's victory over Kansas City was only the third time all season the Colts have won by more than 4. The only team they beat by more than 7 was the Jaguars. Their other nine victories were one play from going the other way.

Even in this week's victory, the Colts allowed a 200-yard rusher (Jamaal Charles) and a 100-yard rusher (Peyton Hillis). Indianapolis averaged 3.5 yards per rush attempt, and Andrew Luck completed under half his passes. Facing the worst team in the NFL, they were out-gained by 219 yards and the game was tied with 5:00 left. This is a great story, not a great team. The 2012 Colts are the 2010 Chiefs.

16. Carolina Panthers [18] — Held both of their last two opponents to under 10 points, after allowing at least 16 in each of their first 13 games. They've won three in a row, all by double-digits.

17. Miami Dolphins [20] — Won three of their last five, and the losses were against the 49ers and Patriots. This season, NFL teams average 22.7 points per game. The Dolphins have scored 24 each of the last two weeks, the first time all season they've scored 22 or more in consecutive games.

18. New York Giants [11] — Out-gained 533-186. This notion that there are good teams who lose as many games as possible while still making the playoffs, then turn it on only when they absolutely must, is absurd. Good teams win most of their games and don't need help to qualify for the postseason.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers [15] — All season, I've had them ranked one or two spots higher than they probably deserved. We know the talent is there, and I keep expecting them to play up to their potential. It's not happening. And now, Heath Miller will miss the finale with a knee injury.

Shaun Suisham's had a pretty good year, but he missed a crucial 24-yard field goal this week.

20. St. Louis Rams [21] — Won four of their last five, and held the opponent to 17 points or less in each of the four wins. This team has made real progress since "earning" the 2nd overall pick last year, and it has more extra draft choices coming because of Washington's trade to get RG3.

21. Cleveland Browns [19] — Pat Shurmur is a jackass. Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson both got hurt near the end of Sunday's blowout loss. Media questioned Shurmur's decision to keep his young stars in the game, and the coach answered, "What do we do, just stop playing?" Shurmur is right that you don't stop trying (You play to win the game! Hello!), but he's wrong for calling timeouts at the end of a blowout.

In a game that was never competitive, the Broncos led 31-12 with under 4:00 left and the ball in Cleveland territory. A three-TD comeback in under 4:00, with the other team having a first down on your side of the field? That has never happened in the NFL, and the Browns have a terrible offense, not one that can set scoring records. The game's over. But Shurmur deliberately prolonged the game, and that means people can get hurt. Trent Richardson is the only good player on this offense, and he was injured with 1:24 left because Shurmur wouldn't let Denver run out the clock. I'm not talking about giving up, just acknowledging reality.

22. San Diego Chargers [24] — Sacked Greg McElroy 11 times. Rookie Kendall Reyes tallied 3.5, Shaun Phillips added 2.5, and Corey Liuget nabbed 2, with the others shared among various teammates. The Chargers have won two of their last three, both on the road, and they now have a better record away (4-4) than at home (2-5).

23. Philadelphia Eagles [25] — Three 10-play drives and four trips to the red zone yielded only one touchdown. They have a ton of injuries.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [22] — It is awful that I cannot get them into the bottom eight. They've lost five in a row, including a combined 69-13 the last two weeks. But I still think they're probably better than the Jets.

25. New York Jets [23] — Starting Greg McElroy was probably the right decision at this point, but 11 sacks later, it's pretty clear he's not ready. What's amazing is that this team knew, in the offseason, it needed a backup QB. Instead of bringing in someone who could play, they acquired Tim Tebow, who reportedly refused to play in the Wildcat this week. Despite his limited playing time, Tebow may be the most disastrous free agency acquisition since Albert Haynesworth.

26. Buffalo Bills [26] — With one game left, C.J. Spiller has 183 rush attempts for 1,185 yards. That's an average of 6.48 yards per attempt. The single-season record is 6.40 by Jim Brown in 1963 (291 attempts for 1,863 yards). I think Spiller's going to break the record, though probably in under 200 carries.

27. Tennessee Titans [27] — They're 1-4 since the bye, including a massacre by Green Bay and a loss to the Jaguars. The win was last week's depressing affair against the Jets. Jake Locker's passer rating was under 80 in all five games, and he threw more INTs than TDs in every game except the Jets (zero of each).

28. Arizona Cardinals [28] — This team started 4-0, including wins over the Patriots and Seahawks.

29. Detroit Lions [29] — It's too early in Calvin Johnson's career to say he's the best receiver I've ever seen. But he gets double-teamed on almost every play, and he keeps getting open. It's a shame there's not more talent around him. Yeah, his stats would be even more impressive if he was compiling them on a winning team, but that works both ways. Jerry Rice's opponents also had to worry about great running backs (Roger Craig, Ricky Watters, Garrison Hearst, Charlie Garner), complementary receivers (Dwight Clark, John Taylor, Brent Jones, Tim Brown), and good running QBs (Joe Montana, Steve Young, Jeff Garcia, Rich Gannon). Those guys could throw a little bit, too. I wonder if Matt Stafford would even look average without Megatron.

30. Oakland Raiders [30] — Carson Palmer started 3-for-3, then left the game after a roughing penalty on Greg Hardy. DT Tommy Kelly foolishly admitted after the game that he tried to injure Cam Newton in retaliation. Do you smell that? Smells like a fine from the league. Palmer apparently will not play in Week 17.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — From an economic point of view, I understand the appeal of Tim Tebow. If you're serious about building a football team, not so much. The available evidence suggests that he can't play, and he's disruptive in the locker room, like Brett Favre without the talent. Here's something weird: Chad Henne has thrown for more yards than the opposing QB for five games in a row.

32. Kansas City Chiefs [32] — 200-yard rusher (Jamaal Charles) and a 100-yard rusher (Peyton Hillis). Charles, who turns 26 this week, is over 1,400 yards for the second time. Next year, the Chiefs need a quarterback. I hear Tim Tebow might be available.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:40 AM | Comments (0)

December 24, 2012

A League of Their Own

Maybe the Mayans were big basketball fans?

These are the end days of the current college sports conference structure. Recent developments have all-but-assured the destruction of the Big East, and even best of breeds like the SEC and Big Ten will look much different than their obsessively regional previous incarnations. Pieces of conferences are breaking apart from each other and slamming into their neighbors like tectonic plates, radically redrawing the map in the process.

As a result, Missouri will now challenge Kentucky for conference supremacy instead of Kansas, and Rutgers and Nebraska will be doormats in a different league than the ones they were previously doormats of. Conference affiliation is merely seasonal fashion.

But this violent realignment, combined with the continued ascent of the mid-major program, has created a secretly fascinating league, if only for one year.

The 2012-13 Atlantic 10 figures to be a highly competitive, one-show-only performance. Butler and VCU, having not only reached the Final Four, but also somehow keeping the coaches that got them there, jumped to the A-10 this year. UNC-Charlotte and Temple, backfilling the mayhem in more attractive conferences, are slated to join C-USA and the Big East, respectively, next year, though the Owls probably should consider some backup plans. And as other leagues scramble for enough flotsam to build a shabby football television contract, who knows which of these schools will be lured away by full or partial membership elsewhere?

This means that for one season only, the A-10 might be one of the best basketball conferences in the country. No, it won't rack up 10 tournament bids like the Big East or place half that number in the Sweet 16. But consider how many teams in the conference have been tournament-caliber in recent years.

Five current A-10 teams were in last year's NCAA tournament alone, and that does not include Butler, which missed the tournament after consecutive Championship Game appearances. Ten of the 16 teams have not only made the tournament since 2000, but each of them have won a game. Add to that an additional two (UMass and Rhode Island) missing that cutoff by only one and two years, respectively, and each of those teams made at least the Elite Eight within the last 17 tournaments.

But aside from being a salon of sneaky tournament-worthy programs, this year's A-10 is something unique, fresh, and almost certainly impossible to replicate in the current climate: a basketball conference. The hallowed hoops identity of the Big East is ready to supernova; the ACC has gladly diluted its basketball product to keep from taking on water on the football side.

Major college sports are completely addicted to football revenue, and the conferences are the only dealers in town with access to the broadcast-money suppliers. Non-addicts, like the Big East's Catholic Seven or most of the A-10, are being hurt by longtime neighbors and friends willing to do anything to get their next fix of football cash.

With the exception of Temple, the A-10 doesn't have that monkey on its back. VCU and Butler came to the league because the it offered better basketball than their former memberships. And unlike the Mountain West, WAC, and C-USA, the A-10 is not constantly being rummaged through by the biggest conferences looking for the next football-hooked school that can be part of their next package.

The 16 schools of the A-10 found each other because they share a common interest. The schools that have entered the league recognized it as a stable place for programs good enough to play in the tournament every year to get a solid conference slate without being ground up by the elites of the Big East or ACC. These schools know where they fit in the basketball landscape, and there is something refreshingly capitalistic about a few handfuls of athletic departments finding such an efficiently appropriate fit, even if Indianapolis and St. Louis aren't exactly "Atlantic" campus locations.

There is certain to be more conference chaos, especially given the decision of the Big East's Catholic Seven to exit that league. Some rumors even have those schools joining up with some portion of the A-10, shaking up this basketball equilibrium. The Big East's embarrassingly desperate search for any chair to sit in when the music stops will continue, and who knows what will get broken in the process.

So keep an eye on the A-10 this season when the constant conference realignment rumors exhaust your patience. Amid this destruction and uncertainty, they could be heroes of reason, if just for one year.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 7:31 PM | Comments (0)

2012: Mime and Reason

What to call 2012? Numerous possibilities creep into the mind, all of which make sense and most of which make no sense, but never let it be said that baseball nonsense is quite the same thing as nonsense nonsense. Take your pick which was more amusing nonsense: a struggling Alex Rodriguez caught flirting from the Yankee dugout during a postseason contest, or Michael Morse forced to pantomime the grand slam he'd just hit — trust me, Marcel Marceau would have had no worries — after a replay ruling in its favor compelled a brain-damaged umpire to order the three men he sent home back to their bases of departure to be sure they'd touched 'em all.

Once upon a time, the nation's capital had a baseball reputation: "Washington — First in war, first in peace, and last in the American League." This year, it was "Washington — First in war, first in peace, and first in the National League East." Considering the capital's drought, in pennant competitiveness and, then, without a baseball team at all, the spunky, engaging Nationals' elimination in a thriller of a five-game division series — after they'd pushed it to the fifth game with a walk-off home run — was only slightly painful.

The St. Louis Cardinals' attempt to repeat their 2011 miracles ended in the National League Championship Series, courtesy of the eventual World Series conquerers, the San Francisco Giants. The Giants refined escape from the dead into a black-and-orange art (warming up against the Cincinnati Reds) and, while they were at it, humiliated in the Series a Detroit Tigers team who was supposed to pitch and hit them right under the table. The Baltimore Orioles snuck into the postseason after a cheerfully shocking regular season finish — not to mention winning 16 straight extra-inning affairs along the way — and conquest in the American League wild card game, then got a little too eager, too often, trying to assassinate a merely hittable CC Sabathia, and went home for the winter with much to be proud of, anyway. The Oakland Athletics were even sneakier, starting rookie arms 101 times on the way to dumping the Texas Rangers for the division title on the final day, then almost beating the Tigers in the division series.

As for the Empire Emeritus? Raul Ibanez refused to act his age and hit a pair of game-tying homers in the division series, then---as a free agent---signed up for a third tour with the Seattle Mariners. Of his own free will. Derek Jeter fractured his ankle to open the League Championship Series and all of a sudden the Yankees began acting a little too much like their ages. The Tigers' LCS conquest was a mercy killing. And the Yankees spent the offseason in apparent determination to ... act their age.

The Chicago Cubs couldn't act their shoe sizes, never mind their ages, in early September: while being outscored 31-9 over four games with the Nats, they decided to show those upstarts from the Potomac who the men were around here, in the fourth game. They launched a couple of brawls and, essentially, showed the world one of the reasons why they've just finished the 105th year of their rebuilding effort. Earlier in the season an infant Nat, Bryce Harper, proved an electric enough rookie early enough and often enough that Philadelphia's Cole Hamels decided to teach him a little lesson in humility, drilling the baby Nat — who's no baby — in the back. The inning didn't end before Harper stole home.

On the same night, Baltimore Chris Davis earned a win by pitching the 16th and 17th innings. In the previous innings of the game, Davis went 0-for-8 with five punchouts. Setting himself up to become the American League's first position player to earn a pitching win since Rocky Colavito in 1968. Two nights later, Josh Hamilton drilled four 2-run homers in Camden Yards. Seven months after that, Hamilton drilled a $125 million, five-year grand slam with the Los Angeles Angels.

Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Mike Trout should have won the league's MVP. If Julius Erving had been a baseball player, he'd have been Trout, a human highlight reel who became the first man (never mind rook) in history to hit 30+ home runs, steal 40+ bases, and score 125 runs. When Trout robbed J.J. Hardy of a home run 27 June, he had the kind of hang time up against the fence that Dr. J. used to have going from mid-court to the basket for a dunk or a mini-dunk. Arizona's Aaron Hill hadn't hit for a cycle since college — but he did it twice in 2012, on 18 and 30 June. Jamie Moyer, whose college days may or may not have occurred during the Kennedy Administration (that's a joke, son), became the oldest man to win a game on the mound and drive in a run at the plate. Jim Thome became baseball's all-time walk-off home run leader, with his 13th such bomb, leaving behind such extinguished gentlemen as Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, and Frank Robinson — all of whom settled for a measly twelve.

You could call 2012 the year of the no-no. San Francisco's Matt Cain was perfect about it, to the point of tying Sandy Koufax's record for punchouts in a perfect game. (Fourteen.) King Felix Hernandez pitched another of the year's perfectos. So did Philip Humber, in his second start of the season, who may or may not have to change his name to Humble considering the aftermath of his jewel: in thirteen starts to come, poor Humber missed time with an elbow strain, went 4-5 with five no-decisions otherwise, and had, essentially, pitched his way to the bullpen by August 7. Johan Santana's no-hitter may have been the second-most talked about simply because it it took a measly 8,119 games before any New York Met had ever pitched one. Then an ankle sprain and inflamed lower back guaranteed he'd end 2012 where he spent all of 2011, on the disabled list. Only the Mets.

Melky Cabrera gave the National League World Series home field advantage by delivering the winning All-Star Game tally, then got himself suspended for actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances and was fool enough to try using a beard to post a Website discussing the matter. It compelled him to withdraw formally from the National League batting race and the Giants to withdraw him from their postseason roster and future plans. Bartolo Colon, making an impressive comeback in Oakland, got bagged for synthetic testosterone. The Boston Red Sox got bagged for their worst season since 1965, managed to trade three bloated contracts and their accompanying strugglers to the suddenly-gigarich Los Angeles Dodgers, and couldn't wait to fire the divisive new manager whose idea of stabilizing a clubhouse still shaky from the 2011 collapse was to throw one after another lit match into the toxins in the air.

The Dodgers last winter: still lain low in the ledger thanks to the shenanigans of then-owner Frank McCourt. The Dodgers this winter: looking like the Yankees, without the old Steinbrennerian madnesses, under new ownership (including basketball legend Magic Johnsons), with fat new television dollars, and an apparent willingness to leave no dollar unspent if necessary. The Mets, still looking a little shaky after barely escaping the Bernie Madoff mess with their lives, extended the face of their franchise (David Wright) and did nothing while their most popular 2012 player — a pitcher who won 20 games, led the National League in strikeouts, and won a Cy Young Award, all while pitching with a knuckleball and a best-selling memoir on his hands — was trashed ignominiously, and wrongly, by a New York columnist while they were working a deal to trade him to Toronto. And all R.A. Dickey wanted from the team was a two-year extension at considerably below market value. That's gratitude for you.

Chipper Jones retired with his Atlanta Braves, yet again, getting very little for their effort, being pushed out of the postseason in the National League wild card game. Hopefully his inevitable Cooperstown plaque will relieve some of that sting, not to mention the Playboy model with whom he took up after his second divorce became final. The Houston Astros prepared to become the team named later in the deal that made National Leaguers out of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Miami Marlins dumped the Blizzard of Ozz and about half the team while they were at it following season's end. Destroying the good will they'd inspired by giving Adam Greenberg — whose career had been killed before it really began when he was beaned on the first major league pitch he saw seven years earlier — a single at-bat. On the other hand, they threw him to R.A. Dickey's wolf. Welcome home, Greenberg ... whom, by the way, the Orioles have signed to a Triple-A deal.

Death be not proud: Gary Carter was believed unfairly to be a self-magnifying showboat during his career; only as the years of his retirement passed did too many appreciate his smile, his apple-pie image, and his genuine enthusiasm for the game, the people who played it, and the people who watched it weren't lies. Mel Parnell probably should have gotten the ball instead of Denny Galehouse for the 1948 pennant playoff game. The shortstop on that Red Sox team, Johnny Pesky, became perhaps the franchise's most beloved figure in the decades to come, as a coach, minor league manager, parent club manager, coach, and all-around representative. It was nothing less than absolute justice that Pesky should have lived to see his Red Sox win two World Series before he reached 90. Parnell had first christened Fenway Park's right field foul pole the Pesky Pole, after Pesky hit a game winning homer just past it.

Pedro Borbon may not have said during the 1973 National League Championship Series, "If Pete Rose starts a brawl with Bud Harrelson, I'll eat my hat" — but the Cincinnati relief ace did try to eat the bill of Met pitcher Buzz Capra's hat during the brawl, which was almost the next best thing. Dave Philley played eighteen seasons, was a fine defensive outfielder, and was probably remembered best for being one of the 14 men ejected by umpire Red Jones in a 1946 game. (After White Sox pitcher Joe Haynes knocked Ted Williams down with a pitch, the White Sox bench began heckling Jones, and Jones — uncertain where it started — threw out everyone on both benches except White Sox manager Ted Lyons, White Sox coach Mule Haas, and a bat boy.)

Eddie Yost was known as the Walking Man because it seemed to be his best weapon for getting on base. (He led his league in walks six times and finished his career with 1,614 strolls up the first base line.) Dennis Bennett once pitched in the same game as his brother for the 1964 Philadelphia Phillies. Dave Boswell was, unfortunately, remembered better for an off-field fight with manager Billy Martin than for winning 20 with the same season's American League West-winning Minnesota Twins---and for career all but over after season's end, following an unexpected freak shoulder injury while delivering a pitch. Moose Skowron was a tough Yankee first baseman with a heart tender enough that he couldn't bear his marital collapse until he finally gave in, hired a detective, and ended up remarrying happily. Jerry Lynch was a non-pareil pinch hitter whose idol in that role was Smoky Burgess, "but I was the better clutch hitter because I hit 18 dingers. I rang the bell eighteen times." He rang the bells often enough for the pennant-winning 1961 Reds.

Harry Parker was an effective relief pitcher for the 1973 surprise-pennant Mets. Ryan Freel was a lively Cincinnati utilityman in the Aughts who lost count of the concussions he suffered playing across the line between hard nosed and bull headed and committed suicide just before Christmas. Pascual Perez was a hard headed pitcher who triggered an infamous round of game-long brawls, once couldn't find his way to Yankee Stadium in a traffic mishap, and was murdered during a robbery. Champ Summers was one of the players who took umbrage to Perez having drilled Alan Wiggins to open the game and the round of basebrawl. Jack Kralick was one of the last pair of pitchers to homer in the same game for the same team, then pitched the first no-hitter by a man wearing a Twins uniform, but ended his career when he might have been a Met thanks to injuries in an automobile accident. Mike Hershberger got his first major league hit off Kralick, in 1961, then led the American League in sacrifice flies in 1966 and outfield assists in 1965 and 1967.

About the only job Lee MacPhail didn't hold in baseball was probably stadium usher. About the only job Marvin Miller had to do was the job he did precisely — shepherd players out of their days as chattel, into their years as marketable employees as every other American enjoyed the right to be. Baseball since the Messersmith/McNally ruling has seen more different teams win pennants and World Series than won them before the ruling and everyone, owners and players alike, making fortunes. The sport is more competitive now than ever. And there are still those too witless to believe Miller belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

December 22, 2012

The Tale of Two Coasts

During the young NBA season, there have been two storylines which seem to tower over the rest. They take place on opposite sides of the country and feature exceeding expectations on the East Coast and one of the biggest disappointments to this point in the season in league history on the West Coast.

Currently, that East Coast team, the New York Knicks, stunningly sit on top of the Eastern Conference with an 19-6 record despite not having their second most well-known player for any part of the season to this point and possessing a supporting cast that can best be described as geriatric. In fact, when Rasheed Wallace signed for the Knicks, it put the team's average age at 32 years, 240 days — the oldest team in the history of the league.

Some of those older players, especially point guard Jason Kidd, are making the most of the twilight of their career. But it's two of the Knicks younger players, albeit that they are 10+ year NBA veterans, that have the greatest part in making the Knicks into one of the league's best teams.

At this point in his career, it seems like everything that could possibly be said about Carmelo Anthony could be summed up pretty well in a few short sentences. He's one of the best pure scorers in the game and a fantastic crunch time option in the regular season. He's almost impossible to guard and has been a top-10 player for most, if not all, of his career. However, he also has extremely limited playoff success for someone of his stature and quality that is regularly characterized as a selfish ball-hog. But this year, he seems to be morphing into a leader with a great attitude for the game.

And perhaps Anthony has become more of a leader because the Knicks' other key cog, Tyson Chandler is wearing off on him. Chandler is the most valuable center in the league right now because of the emotion and defense that he brings to the Knicks. He's not known by anyone as a go-to option offensively, but he'll probably lead the league in field goal percentage again thanks to his ability to find a few easy baskets and put backs each game.

Chandler's prowess and leadership as a center can be contrasted with his rival for best center in the league and for last year's Defensive Player of the Year honors, Dwight Howard. Right now, despite all of the talent Howard possesses, he doesn't look ready to become the force his new team needs him to be as Pau Gasol comes back from injury, Steve Nash returns for the first time since October and Kobe Bryant continues to glare at him after every costly missed free throw.

It's very tough to understate how much of a disappointment the Lakers have been. After they traded for Howard and Nash, conventional wisdom said West was down to two players before a ball had been tipped in anger. When the Thunder traded James Harden on the season's eve, the Lakers were supposed to coast to the Finals against Miami because no other team could be so dynamic and put that much talent on the floor at one time. But that conventional wisdom also didn't recognize the chemistry and depth teams like Oklahoma City and San Antonio have.

Additionally, with Mike D'Antoni now coaching the team, I fail to see how his system is going to translate to the Lakers once all four superstars are playing and healthy. While D'Antoni and Nash are seen as basketball soul-mates, Nash and his bad back turn 39 before the end of the season. Questions also have yet to be answered about if D'Antoni's style can work with a bigger frontline that includes Gasol and Howard on the floor together. And better yet, in the more recent small-ball-as-status-quo NBA, can any style that relies on such a frontline work to win a title?

Even though the Knicks are on top of the East and the Lakers are still below .500 despite a recent, there is an element of "the jury's still out" as the calendar turns to 2013. For New York, the elephant in the room is how Amare Stoudemire's return will affect the chemistry and Chandler/Anthony leadership dynamic. Also, it remains to be seen how the team's older legs will handle the latter part of the season and the playoffs.

For the Lakers, the obvious consideration is getting everyone back healthy, which should help the club at least get over .500. There's also the possibility of trading Gasol for more athletic pieces to keep up with Oklahoma City/San Antonio/Memphis. But one overlooked part of a possible Laker run is that even without Nash, they have been outscoring opponents by 2.7 points per game, which is far better than the teams around them in the standings. So the Lakers' luck may turn soon if they can find a way to win close games/have Howard hit free throws.

At this point in the NBA season, you'd still have to favor the Heat and Thunder to return to the finals. However, it's quite the story that the Knicks seem more likely to be playing deep into the spring than the Lakers.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:05 AM | Comments (0)

December 20, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 16

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Atlanta @ Detroit (+3)

The Falcons demolished the Giants last week 34-0, avenging last year's demoralizing 24-2 playoff loss to the Giants. Matt Ryan threw for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Falcons moved a step closer to clinching home field throughout the playoffs.

"Atlanta owner Arthur wasn't the only 'Blank' in the Georgia Dome," Ryan said. "Some say we did the impossible. I agree. We made the Jets look like New York's best team.

"I look forward to the challenged posed by Ndamukong Suh and the Detroit defense. I play in the Deep South; Suh kicks in the deep south. Truthfully, I don't mind if Suh kicks me in the balls; I just want him to ask first. Of course, that wouldn't make him the first person to 'question my manhood."

The Lions disappointing season continued with an ugly 38-10 loss to the Cardinals, a team coming off a 58-0 loss to Seattle. After qualifying for the playoffs last year, Detroit is 4-10 this season, tied for the worst record in the NFC.

"Calvin Johnson may be this team's only bright spot," Jim Schwartz said. "Ironically, he's the only one who hasn't been 'lit up' this year.

"Ultimately, the blame for our sorry season lies squarely on my shoulders. I'll keep telling myself that until I correct it. And that, my friend, is the only 'discipline' you'll see in Detroit."

The Lions have a job to do, and that's get Johnson closer to Jerry Rice's NFL record of 1,848 yards receiving. It may be the only job they successfully complete this year."

Johnson has 11 catches for 138 yards and a score, and the Lions piece together a 30-27 win.

New Orleans @ Dallas (-3)

There's a three-way logjam atop the NFC East, and the 9-5 Cowboys are right in the middle after last Sunday's 27-24 overtime win over the Steelers. Dan Bailey's 21-yard field goal after a Ben Roethlisberger interception won it for the Cowboys.

"This was a first," Jerry Jones said. "We beat the Steelers in a meaningful game and Neil O'Donnell had nothing to do with it. Like this year's Cowboys, that 1996 Dallas team overcame a number of obstacles, most notably having Barry Switzer as a head coach.

"For once, Sunday's game was an occasion in which there was an unwanted guest on our sideline, and it wasn't me!"

The Saints shut out the Buccaneers 41-0, eliminating Tampa from playoff contention. A win in Dallas would likewise throw a wrench into the Cowboys' postseason hopes.

"How are Sean Payton and Jerry Jones alike?" Drew Brees said. "Neither will be welcome on the sidelines on Sunday.

"Hopefully, Payton will be back on our sidelines next year. Sadly, though, I doubt former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will be back in New Orleans. He's found work in the corporate world recruiting big shots in the business world. But don't call him a 'headhunter.'"

How do the Cowboys follow up an impressive win? As usual, with a loss.

New Orleans wins, 42-38.

Tennessee @ Green Bay (-13)

The Packers clinched the NFC North last week, subduing the Bears 21-13 behind 291 yards passing and 3 touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay currently holds the NFC's second seed, and if that holds, they'll earn a first-round playoff bye.

"We're close to being at full-strength," Rodgers said. "When we get there, it's 'over' for every other team. And for us, as well, because it will be April.

"We've probably been the NFL's most impressive team this month. Everyone fears the Packers in December. We, on the other hand, fear the Giants in January."

The Titans beat the Jets 14-10 on Monday night, buoyed by 122 yards rushing and 1 touchdown from Chris Johnson. Tennessee improved to 5-9.

"Johnson had 20 carries for 28 yards," Mike Munchak saod, "and one carry for 94 yards and a touchdown. After that one, I told Chris, 'That's more like it.' Then I told him we need 'more like it.'"

Rodgers out-rushes Johnson, and the Packers cruise, 38-17.

Indianapolis @ Kansas City (+6)

The Colts dropped to 9-5 with a 29-17 loss to the Texans, but are still in position to earn a playoff wild card berth. Indy could clinch that berth with a win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

"I think we have a definitive advantage over the Chiefs in the passing game," Andrew Luck said. "When there's talk of an 'aerial attack' in Kansas City, it usually refers to an airplane flying a banner demanding the Chiefs fire their coach and general manager.

"I only need 74 yards to set the rookie record for passing yardage. That's a record held by Cam Newton. When things are going good for Newton, he's Superman. Even when things aren't going so good, he's still a super hero — the 'Incredible Sulk.'"

The Chiefs were blanked 15-0 last week in Oakland, as the Kansas City offense managed only five first downs, while Sebastian Janikowski kicked 5 field goals. The Chiefs are 2-12 on the year and tied with the Jaguars for the worst record in the NFL.

"I've won only two games this year," Romeo Crenel said, "and even fewer friends. I've been called a lot of names lately, all indicating my end is near. Names like 'Cren-L,' and 'Rome-Over,' and 'Bye and Large,' and 'The Human Beat Box,' and 'Chief Packing Bags.'"

Indianapolis wins, 24-16.

Buffalo @ Miami (-4)

The Dolphins whipped the visiting Jaguars 24-3 last week, powered by a 220-yard, 2-touchdown day from Ryan Tannehill. Miami is now 6-8 on the year.

"It was a great win," Tannehill said, "and a great way to honor the 40th anniversary of the 1972 Dolphins' 17-0 campaign. You have to give those guys their 'props,' because I believe that's the only way they can stand."

The Bills were hammered 50-17 by the Seahawks at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, as Russell Wilson accounted for four scores. The Bills are 5-9, last in the AFC East.

"We were the second best team in Toronto last Sunday," Chan Gailey said. "Third if you count the Argonauts.

"I'd be surprised if Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starting quarterback next year. 'Ryan's hope' is that he will. Everyone else 'hopes Ryan' won't be. Sure, Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, but his progress as a quarterback, much like ivy, is creeping."

Miami wins, 22-20.

San Diego @ NY Jets (-3)

The home-standing Chargers surrendered 21 first quarter points to the Panthers last week before eventually losing 31-7. It was another disappointing loss for the Chargers, especially after an impressive win the previous week in Pittsburgh.

"I realize my time in San Diego is limited," Norv Turner said, "but until someone tells me otherwise, I'm not going anywhere. My team may be quitters, but I'm not. I'd like to hang around; others would prefer me to just hang. It's almost a done deal, so start spreading the 'noose.' Just for the record, I don't want to be a part of the New York Jets."

The Jets were eliminated from the playoffs after an ugly 14-10 loss to the Titans in Tennessee. Mark Sanchez turned the ball over five times and the Jets fell to 6-8.

"I've decided to remove Mark from the starting lineup," Rex Ryan said. "On a related note, Jets' management has decided to remove the 'R' from my first name. From now on, I'll be known as 'Ex Ryan.'

"Greg McElroy will start. I know a lot of people wanted to see Tim Tebow get the chance, but Greg gives us the best chance to win. In an ironic twist, Tebow didn't have a prayer."

Neither the Jets nor the Chargers possess any redeeming qualities, save for one — they are both extremely compelling arguments against playoff expansion.

Chargers win, 24-15.

Washington @ Philadelphia (+3)

Despite the absence of Robert Griffin III, the Redskins smashed the Browns 38-21 in Cleveland. Kirk Cousins passed for 329 yards and 2 score as the 'Skins improved to 8-6, tied with the Giants for first in the NFC East.

"Cousins didn't play like a rookie," Mike Shanahan said. "Based on the success of rookies so far this year in the NFL, you want a rookie quarterback starting. Griffin may not be black enough, according to some people, but Cousins sure is 'green' enough. If Griffin is indeed not 'black enough,' then I think all Redskins' fans will be more than happy to be dreaming of a 'white' Christmas."

The Eagles fell to 4-10 after last Thursday's 34-13 loss at the hands of the visiting Bengals. After throwing for 381 yards two weeks ago, Nick Foles threw for only 182 against Cincinnati.

"Foles has a white girlfriend," Andy Reid said. "Does that make him 'black enough?' Oddly enough, her name is 'Lily White.'

"I'm not allowed to talk about my future with the team. But, if you'll come stand over by the large bell with a crack in it, I'll be at 'Liberty' to discuss it. I think Philly fans will be happy to hear that the bell is 'tolling."

Washington wins, 31-21.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-4)

The Bengals whipped the Eagles 34-13 last Thursday in Philadelphia, improving to 8-6 and solidifying their playoff position. Now 8-6, Cincinnati holds the sixth seed in the AFC with two games remaining.

"The Steelers have their backs against the wall," Marvin Lewis said. "It looks like the shows on the other foot, now. Not long ago, the Bengals had their backs against the wall. That usually indicated one of my players was in a police lineup.

"Nothing is ever easy in Pittsburgh, except injuring Troy Polamalu's calf. I hear they call him 'Veal,' because that's one tender calf."

Pittsburgh's 27-24 overtime loss in Dallas was a serious blow to their playoff hopes. Now 7-7, the Steelers must defeat the Bengals to keep their hopes alive.

"I'm not happy with our offensive play-calling," Ben Roethlisberger said. "If I were Joe Flacco, Todd Haley would be out of here. Then again, if I were Joe Flacco, I wouldn't have two Super Bowl rings.

"The Steelers celebrated the 40th anniversary of the 'Immaculate Reception. I celebrated my own, when my sexual assault-free post-nuptials celebration became my own 'Immaculate Reception.'"

Pittsburgh wins, 23-20.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay (-3)

The Buccaneers suffered a crushing 41-0 defeat in New Orleans last week, ending Tampa's already slim playoff hopes. Drew Brees torched Tampa's NFL-worst pass defense for 307 yards and 4 touchdowns.

"Brees calls our pass defense the 'Big Easiest,' Greg Schiano said.

The Rams were the latest defense to fall victim to the Adrian Peterson's rushing attack. Peterson blitzed the St. Louis defense for 212 yards, including an 82-yard score, in Minnesota's 36-22 win.

"Peterson runs like the wind," Jeff Fisher said. "Our defense was a lot like the wind, because you couldn't see it.

"We'll have to do a better job against Tampa's Doug Martin. He's the second-leading rookie rusher in the NFL, which has earned him the nickname 'Doug-ie Fresh-man.'"

Tampa wins, 27-22.

Oakland @ Carolina (-9½)

The surging Panthers jumped on the Chargers early, racing to a 21-0 first quarter lead in an eventual 31-7 win. The Panthers are 5-9 and still last in the NFC South.

"The Panthers are a dangerous team," Ron Rivera said. "Especially dangerous to me, because I'm the coach."

The Raiders beat the Chiefs 15-0 last week behind 5 field goals from Sebastian Janikowski. The Raiders are 4-10 in the AFC West.

"Chris Kluwe is campaigning for Ray Guy to make the Hall of Fame," Dennis Allen said. "But Janikowski will be a legitimate candidate himself one day. I urge prospective voters to consider him when the time comes. Or, as I would urge pretty, 20-something females, 'Don't fall asleep on Janikowski."

Carolina wins, 34-16.

New England @ Jacksonville (+13)

The visiting 49ers upset the Patriots 41-34 last Sunday night, shedding doubt on New England's claim as the AFC's best team. San Fran rushed for 180 yards and forced 4 turnovers.

"The 49ers came to Foxboro with a no-holds-barred game plan," Tom Brady said. "You've got to give them credit for 'going for it.'

"Will Bill Belichick go for it on fourth down against the Jaguars? I think the more intriguing question is will the Jaguars force a fourth down."

The Jaguars are 2-12 after last week's 24-3 loss in Miami. Jacksonville is 31st in the NFL in scoring offense.

"We'll be facing a motivated Patriot team," Mike Mularkey said. "They were spanked by the 49ers, so I expect Belichick will put them through a rigorous week of practice. With his attention to detail, they'll work on every single aspect. I imagine he'll call it the '50-Point Plan.'"

New England wins, 51-13.

Minnesota @ Houston (-9½)

Adrian Peterson continued his domination of the league's rushing defenses with 212 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's 36-22 win over the Rams last week. At 8-6, the Vikes are very much alive in the hunt for a wildcard playoff spot.

"Eric Dickerson's 2,105 yards are in sight," Peterson said, "and you don't need a funky pair of goggles to see that.

"I am the embodiment of a record-setting running back. I've got speed, power, and a quarterback you absolutely don't want throwing the ball. Christian Ponder just married ESPN sideline reporter Samantha Steele. Not surprisingly, no one caught the bouquet."

The Texans bounced back from last week's 42-14 loss in New England with a 29-17 win Indianapolis, which clinched the AFC South title. With a win on Sunday, Houston will lock up the top seed for the AFC playoffs.

"It was important that we made a 'statement' in the Indy game," Arian Foster said. "Just as it was important that we made an 'apology' for the New England game. Our defense was much better. They were terrible in Foxboro. It was definitely not a case of 'Texas Hold 'Em.' Is was more like 'Texas Hold Me,' because those guys definitely needed comfort afterwards."

The Texans start the game in a defense created by Wade Phillips, called the "Box and One," in which ten players crowd the line of scrimmage, while one safety plays a deep zone and taunts Christian Ponder, daring him to throw the ball. Before Ponder figures out the defense, the Texans have a 17-0 lead and Peterson is rendered moot.

Houston wins, 31-13.

Cleveland @ Denver (-13)

Peyton Manning and the Broncos put away the Ravens early in last week's 34-17 win in Baltimore. Now 11-3, Denver is currently the AFC's No. 3 seed, but could move up to the two spot with two wins.

"Manning had his way with the Baltimore defense," John Elway said. "He has a way of making good defenses look average, and average defenses look bad. The Ravens' defense falls in to neither of those categories.

"Denver/Cleveland games always remind me of 'The Drive. With Manning at the helm, now, I'm just along for 'The Ride.'"

The Browns were whipped 38-21 last Sunday in front of a disappointed home crown in Cleveland. After leading 14-10 at the half, the Browns were outscored 28-7 in the second half.

"In the 'Dawg Pound,'" Pat Shurmur said, 'that's called getting ''Skin and Boned.'"

Brandon Weeden finds the going tough at Invesco Field, where the rowdy "Broncs' Zoo" home crowd makes hearing difficult. Three interceptions later, and three Manning touchdowns later, the Broncos have a 34-13 win.

After the game, Manning sends some unsliced Papa John's pizza to the visitor's locker room, where the Browns find that, any way you slice it, the Broncos are a much better team.

Chicago @ Arizona (+5½)

The Cardinals snapped a nine-game losing streak with a dominating 38-10 win over the Lions last week in Glendale. It was Arizona's first win since starting the season 4-0.

"We're 5-9 now," Ken Whisenhunt said. "I'm surprised we weren't penalized for our 4-0 start, because it was definitely 'false.'

"Getting hammered 58-0 definitely opened the eyes of many. Not me, though. I had mine closed for the entire second half. Hopefully, we won't let Chicago destroy us in a similar manner, because I can't 'Bear' to watch."

The Bears lost to the Packers 21-13 last week in Chicago and are now 8-6. After a 7-1 start, Chicago has lost five or six and are fading fast in the playoff picture.

"Can you believe it?" Brian Urlacher said. "We were booed at home. I'm shocked at the nerve of our family members.

"But, as was the case last year, we've followed a fast start to the season with a late collapse. And no one seems that surprised. Indeed, the Bears are who you thought they were."

Chicago wins, 31-10.

NY Giants @ Baltimore (even)

The Giants left Atlanta 34-0 losers amid questions about their ability to make another Super Bowl run. Eli Manning was 13-25 for 161 yards and 2 interceptions as the Giants fell into a three-way tie for first in the NFC East.

"There's only one thing to say," Tom Coughlin said, "and that's 'G-sus Christ!'

"It was a miserable two days for New York football teams. The Jets were eliminated from the playoffs, and David Carr almost got some playing time."

The erratic Ravens lost 34-17 to the Broncos, as Peyton Manning once again bested Baltimore. Ray Lewis will return to the line after missing nine weeks with a torn triceps.

"I'm tired of watching helplessly from the sideline," Lewis said. "Now, I'll do it from the field."

New York wins, 27-18.

San Francisco @ Seattle (even)

The 49ers clinched a playoff spot with an impressive 41-34 win in New England. San Francisco held a 31-3 third quarter lead and withstood a manic Patriots rally. The 49ers can clinch the NFC West with a win over the Seahawks.

"Colin Kaepernick wrote a letter to himself when he was nine years old," Jim Harbaugh said, "and predicted he's be the 49ers quarterback one day. Alex Smith wrote a similar letter at the age of 28. Not only is Colin a better quarterback, he's a better writer."

The Seahawks followed Week 14's 58-0 blowout of the Cardinals with a 50-17 beat down of the Bills. Seattle became only the third team in NFL history with back-to-back 50-point games.

"That's two weeks in a row I've been accused of running up the score," Pete Carroll said. "I'd rather not incriminate myself, so I plead the 50th."

Seattle wins, 20-13.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:20 PM | Comments (0)

2013 College Football Week 1 Preview

This year, the preview's earlier than ever! I'd also say we have a better slate of games upcoming in the first week of 2013 past. Most teams do not want to play a challenging opponent in Week 1 because they want time to work out the kinks against the likes of Savannah State or Lamar. More teams seem to be bucking that trend next year.

No game times have been set yet, and these games might end up being played anywhere between Thursday, August 29th and Monday, September 2nd.

LSU vs.TCU in Dallas — The last two years, thanks to LSU/Oregon in '11 and Alabama/Michigan in '12, the Dallas opener has taken over from Atlanta as the premier Week 1 neutral-site destination.

On one hand, this seems like kind of a step back. TCU is — sorry, I know they won the Rose Bowl two years ago — not an elite program. They are a mid-level Big 12 program who will probably be crushed by LSU. Also, this ceases to be a true "neutral" game with Fort Worth just a stone's throw from Arlington.

On the other hand, now I actually care who wins! Yay! I know I'm in a the minority here, a minority that can't even make up a sliver on a pie chart, but when two elite teams I have no rooting interest in collide, I usually don't care about it. Give me games where an upset is possible, or a pick 'em between a historical titan and an up-and-comer, or involve Ohio State or Akron. This year, the first two criteria mean I will be watching and rooting for the Frogs. Last year, I made a spiteful point to watch USC/Hawaii on Fox instead of the Tide/Wolverines showdown on ABC. Speaking of which...

USC at Hawaii — For two teams that are neither conference colleagues nor rivals, they sure seem to play a lot, don't they? I guess it's just ... comfortable for them to schedule each other. And it's comfortable for me too; my eccentricities dictate that I watch this game whenever it's played, even though it's never competitive. It had a chance to be competitive before Norm Chow took over Hawaii, changed their offensive identity, and now they officially suck.

Temple at Notre Dame — Conversely, it seems like Notre Dame, having been an independent my whole life, is in fact in a de facto conference of their own choosing, consisting of the service academies, a third of the Big Ten, USC, Stanford, Pitt, Syracuse, and Boston College. So I relish when they play someone outside their normal grid, something that will become rarer now that they're obligated to play five ACC teams each year.

It will be interesting to see if Temple, who had strung together several successful seasons in a row before under Al Golden and Steve Addazio, can bounce back under new coach Matt Rhule, who was a Temple assistant for several years before joining the New York Giants coaching staff last year. This is probably the highest-visibility game Temple has ever played, and they have a chance if Notre Dame reverts to the level they so often do, e.g., their game against Pitt this year or South Florida the year before.

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama in Atlanta — Ooh, I bet the Atlanta organizers are ruing the precipitous fall of VT this year, and now they are pitted against the team about to be two-time defending national champions. Not to worry, Atlanta. Our ESPN overlords will still hype this like it's Ali vs. Frazier.

Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi State in Houston — Now Houston is also getting into the neutral game act, and although this game is quantifiably less sexy than the Atlanta or Dallas matchups, it does figure to be the closest game. Oklahoma State has had as good of a season as could be expected after sniffing a championship game appearance the year before and then losing Brandon Weeden, and Mississippi State, although not finishing the way they'd like, had for them a very good year in the toughest conference.

North Carolina at South Carolina — This game will be on Thursday Night, and somewhere there must be a contract stating ESPN's opening Thursday Nighter must involve SC-East, because this has been the case the last several years.

Georgia at Clemson — Doesn't this seem like the kind of game that would be played in Atlanta?

There are several more games featuring BCS conference vs. BCS conference games, too: Penn State vs. Syracuse in East Rutherford, Northwestern at Cal (that should be a good one), Washington State at Auburn (one of these teams will emerge pretending to be relevant for a week!) and, as far as I can see, the only conference game in Week 1, Ole Miss at Vanderbilt.

Additionally, there are a few good matchups involving the best of the non-BCS against decent-but-not-invincible BCS teams: Boise State at Washington, Utah State at Utah, Nevada at UCLA, BYU at Virginia, Northern Illinois at Iowa. (Sorry for sloppily implying that Virginia and Iowa are decent.)

Not a bad slate, eh? Finally, I'd like to highlight a game that was almost a great trivia answer. Had Kansas State not choked against Baylor, they'd be in the national championship game in a couple weeks, and probably favored over Notre Dame. Additionally, North Dakota State plays in the Division 1-AA (yep, still not gonna say "FCS") championship game later this week. So we were close to having a Week 1 game featuring the Division 1-A champ against the 1-AA champ, as North Dakota State travels to Kansas State to kick off the year.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:06 AM | Comments (0)

December 18, 2012

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* If NBC doesn't want to show sports, how about a permanent loop of Heidi and let a real network air the most important football game of the week?

* Does anyone think Ed Hochuli is better than the replacement refs? A 36-minute delay, a horribly mangled announcement, and a questionable replay decision? Check, check, check: replacement ref.

* The perils of trying to drop knowledge, presented by Ron Pitts: "That West Coast Offense actually originated here in Cleveland Cincinnati under Paul Brown Bill Walsh." Pitts thinks maybe the Browns were running the WCO in 1960. Because when you have Jim Brown in his prime, what you really need is an innovative passing offense.

* Joe Montana was six when Cleveland fired Paul Brown. Walsh is generally credited with creating the WCO in the early '70s for Virgil Carter. Walsh was the Bengals' offensive coordinator and Brown the head coach, but I'm not aware that anyone believes Brown deserves (or even shares) credit for the system. Walsh detested Brown and credits Al Davis as his greatest influence.

* Packers/Bears is a legendary rivalry, but lately it hasn't been much of a rivalry at all. Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 against Chicago. He's 7-1 against Jay Cutler specifically.

***

Last Tuesday, former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue overturned all player suspensions associated with the Saints' bounty scandal. It was a surprising ruling after most fans and players expect the former commissioner to help out his successor. Tagliabue agreed that there was a bounty program in place, but he blamed the coaches rather than the players. The finding was consistent with Tagliabue's legacy of labor peace and putting players back on the field.

I haven't followed the bounty scandal closely — I like my football on the field — but I'm concerned about the message. If there was an active bounty program, players need to shoulder some responsibility, and suspensions are the only effective way to send a message. The players union has demonstrated zero interest in player safety (which is insane), so it's up to the league, and I applaud Roger Goodell's basic goal in that respect.

I'm particularly troubled, though, by Peter King's account of this mess: "Tagliabue blamed the team for the system being in place, not the players who went along with the system and funded it ... the same way judges in society sometimes find parents guilty for the actions of their law-violating children."

That's right, King compared grown men like Jonathan Vilma (30) and Scott Fujita (33) to children. The players are grown-ups, and holding white coaches and executives to a different standard than (mostly) black players is not only wrong, it's racist. I don't know enough about the specifics to say whether that's reflected in Tagliabue's ruling, but let's keep this thing honest. Brackets indicate Week 14 rank.

1. Denver Broncos [2] — Nine-game winning streak. Coincidentally, Peyton Manning has also won nine straight against the Ravens, dating back to 2002. Knowshon Moreno has stepped in ably for Willis McGahee, and the Broncos are remarkably healthy for this time of year.

2. San Francisco 49ers [3] — New England has the best offense in the NFL. The 49ers held it to 2/15 on third downs (13%), forced 4 turnovers, and got Tom Brady to throw more interceptions than touchdown passes for the first time since October 2010 (vs Ravens). Colin Kaepernick has started five games in his career. He has more 4-TD games than Alex Smith (75 starts).

Justin Smith left the game with an elbow injury, and his departure coincided with New England's 28-point onslaught. If the injury proves serious, this ranking should probably be revised. The team's excellent linebacking corps notwithstanding, Justin Smith is probably the key player on defense.

3. New England Patriots [1] — Exciting game. Brady passed a career-high 65 times this week and only threw 1 touchdown. Down 31-3 with 6:00 left in the third quarter, the Patriots scored 4 consecutive TDs and tied the game in less than 15 minutes, with 6:43 remaining. One of the TDs came on a sneak by Brady, his 4th rushing TD of the season. Brady has more rushing TDs than the Raiders. Yes, the whole team.

4. Seattle Seahawks [7] — Three wins in a row, and five of the last six. Oddsmakers have Seattle as a slight favorite to beat the 49ers at home in Week 16. Seattle's offense started the season slow, topping 20 points only once in the first five games. The Seahawks averaged exactly twice as many points per game over the last seven weeks (35.0) as the first eight (17.5). They are the third team in history to score 50 or more points in consecutive weeks (1950 Giants and Rams).

Chris Clemons had 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble this week. This is his third season as a starter, and his third straight season with 11 or more sacks. DeMarcus Ware and Clemons are the only players with three straight seasons of double-digit sacks, yet most fans have never heard of Clemons. He is probably the most underrated defensive end in football.

5. Houston Texans [4] — Arian Foster broke three runs of 25 yards or more and finished with 165 on the ground, but I worry about his workload. This was his 7th game of the season with 25 or more carries, by far the most in the league. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Marshawn Lynch are next, with 4 apiece. Adrian Peterson has 3. On the other hand, it's nice to see Andre Johnson's workload increase.

Johnson, first 7 games: 34 rec, 444 yds, 2 TD
Johnson, last 7 games: 59 rec, 916 yds, 2 TD

He has more than twice as much receiving yardage since the bye. Oh yeah, and J.J. Watt checked in this week with 10 solo tackles, including 6 for a loss, including 3 sacks. And a forced fumble at the 1-yard line, recovered by the Texans. The Defensive Player of the Year race shouldn't even be close. Watt is a legit MVP candidate.

6. Green Bay Packers [5] — Since their ugly loss to the Giants in Week 12, they've reeled off three straight wins, all against division opponents. This week's 21-13 score was close, but the Packers outgained Chicago by over 200 yards and the Bears went 0/9 on third downs. Clay Matthews returned from injury with 2 sacks and a pass deflection.

7. Atlanta Falcons [10] — Won 34-0 without Roddy White. I know he was on the field, but nowhere near 100%. This win was set up by Atlanta's defense. The Giants gained only 10 first downs and ran just 48 plays.

8. Washington Redskins [11] — Five-game winning streak, 2nd-longest in the league (Denver). The Browns had won three games in a row, holding all three opponents below 20 points. Kirk Cousins, in his first NFL start, passed for 329 yards and a 104.4 passer rating, dropping 38 points on Cleveland's defense, as many as it had yielded in the previous three weeks combined.

Fifth-year linebacker Rob Jackson has been playing because of the injury to Brian Orakpo. Jackson has 4.5 sacks, 3 INTs, 5 other pass deflections, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown. I'm sure Orakpo will get his starting job back next year, but maybe Jackson can move to the middle. You have to find playing time for a guy like that.

9. Cincinnati Bengals [6] — Including 6 sacks, Andy Dalton was 13-of-33 for 92 yards, less than three yards per attempt. Cincinnati trailed 13-10 at halftime, but 4 second-half takeaways and a defensive touchdown turned Thursday night into a blowout.

10. Dallas Cowboys [14] — Some around the league have expressed displeasure and even horror that Josh Brent, who drove drunk and killed teammate Jerry Brown, was on the sideline for their game against Pittsburgh. Brent made a terrible mistake. He deserves to be punished, and he will be. But he's also a member of the team, and he's dealing with a tremendous amount of guilt and public criticism. You worry about the mental state of someone in that position, and I don't have a problem with the Cowboys giving him support at this time.

11. New York Giants [9] — How their drives ended this week:

1. Interception
2. Missed 30-yard field goal
3. Three-and-out
4. Interception
5. Turnover on downs
6. Turnover on downs
7. Turnover on downs
8. Three-and-out
9. Lost fumble

12. Baltimore Ravens [8] — In their first game under new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, the Ravens went 1/14 on third and fourth down conversions. They had 7 three-and-outs. Already dealing with injuries to key starters Dannell Ellerbe, Bernard Pollard, and Marshal Yanda, the team also lost receiver Torrey Smith to a concussion.

13. Indianapolis Colts [13] — Gave Houston a fight, with two big plays (a fumble at the 1-yard line and a blocked punt returned for a TD) possibly the difference in the game. The Colts are -17 in turnovers, 30th in the NFL, and if they clean that up, they'll be a dangerous team in the playoffs.

14. New Orleans Saints [16] — Allowed 52 points last week and none on Sunday. The last team to shut out an opponent one week after allowing at least 50 was the 1981 St. Louis Cardinals.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers [12] — Getting Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu back doesn't seem to have helped at all. From October 12th to December 8th, the Steelers held seven consecutive opponents to 20 points or fewer. In two games with Polamalu but without Ike Taylor, they've allowed 34 and 27.

16. Minnesota Vikings [20] — Rookie kicker Blair Walsh had another great game, 5/5 on field goals, including three from 50 yards and beyond. Walsh is 8/8 in 50+ FGs, most in the league.

The Vikings are 8-6, tied for the last playoff spot in the NFC. Adrian Peterson has 1,812 rushing yards, about 300 short of Eric Dickerson's single-season record. Viking fans, if you had to choose, would you rather make the playoffs and All Day falls short of ED, or Peterson gets the record but Minnesota misses the postseason?

17. Chicago Bears [17] — No Tim Jennings. No Henry Melton. No Brian Urlacher. The Bears' offense, outside of Brandon Marshall, has been pretty wretched all year. But when the defense scores 10 points a game, you don't notice so much. Chicago, once 7-1, is now 8-6 and needs help to make the playoffs. The Bears have played six straight games against opponents with winning records, a combined 57-26-1 (.685).

18. Carolina Panthers [23] — Won three of the last four, including a pretty easy victory over Atlanta and a blowout in San Diego. How much do you love Ron Rivera, players? It's tough to fire a coach who ends the season with a four-game winning streak.

19. Cleveland Browns [18] — You probably heard this week that Trent Richardson broke Jim Brown's team record for most TDs by a rookie. I'm not suggesting asterisks, but let's keep in mind that in 1957, the season was only 12 games. Brown led the NFL in rushing by over 20 yards per game and led the league in rushing touchdowns. Richardson is 16th in rushing yards and averages 3.5 per carry.

20. Miami Dolphins [27] — Mathematically alive for a playoff spot. That requires a Week 17 win in New England, plus a lot of help, so probably not going to happen. Ryan Tannehill posted the highest passer rating of his career this week, and threw multiple TDs for only the second time all season.

21. St. Louis Rams [21] — I think it was Terry Bradshaw who said on a pregame show that their defense would hold Adrian Peterson below 100 yards. Peterson ran for 212.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [15] — Josh Freeman came out of the Week 5 bye on fire. The Bucs won five of their next six, with Freeman passing for multiple touchdowns in each game, and a passer rating over 100 in five of them. Since then, Tampa is 0-4 and Freeman has thrown more INTs than TDs.

23. New York Jets [19] — In a train-wreck sort of way, the most amazing game I've seen all season. My favorite part was the growingly incredulous reactions from ESPN's crew. I hope you stayed up late enough to catch Trent Dilfer and Steve Young freaking out after the game. Someone's probably posted it on YouTube by now, and it was amazing. Dilfer seethed, "It's justice that the Jets are not gonna be in the playoffs, because this is dysfunction at its highest level." He and Young repeatedly stuttered, simply in amazement and dismay at what they'd just seen from a professional football team. Both inadvertently raised their voices as they spoke, one step from losing it on the air.

The Jets' offense looked okay on the first two series, picking up 7 first downs, 62 yards, and a field goal. Then Tim Tebow replaced Mark Sanchez for a series, and Sanchez went into the toilet. He finished the first half 5-of-10 for 27 yards, with a 7-yard sack and an interception. That's an average of under 5.5 yards per completion. Jon Gruden foreshadowed the reactions of his colleagues:

"Everything just looks painful in this Jet pass offense."

"Tim Tebow, just runnin' around, it looked like broken plays. It was a disaster, and I think it threw Sanchez and the Jets out of rhythm."

"Once again, Sanchez just looks like he's having a miserable, miserable time playing quarterback in this Jet offense."

That last one came immediately before Sanchez threw the second of his four interceptions. When Sanchez and the offense appeared to regain some momentum, the Jets once more replaced him with Tebow. Mike Tirico with the call: "Mark Sanchez is hot, he's rolling, he hit a couple of passes ... and Tim Tebow comes in." Dilfer was flabbergasted afterwards: "[For a quarterback], everything is about rhythm. You establish some — some — and then your genius offensive coordinator throws out his little toy, Tim Tebow." Dilfer, Young, and (to a lesser extent) Stuart Scott were all seriously freaking out on set, and it was wonderful. Rex Ryan indicated in the postgame press conference that it was planned ahead of time for Tebow to handle the third series. The feebleness of gameday coaching at the NFL level astounds me.

24. San Diego Chargers [22] — Philip Rivers' regression the last two seasons has got to rank as one of the biggest disappointments in the past decade. Rivers had three great seasons, looked about as good as any QB in the league. He's not a good player any more. This weekend: 16-of-23, 121 yards, 6 sacks for 27 yards, TD. 29 dropbacks should yield a lot more than 94 yards.

25. Philadelphia Eagles [26] — Three turnovers in 71 seconds. The Eagles are -22 in turnover differential, tied with Kansas City for worst in the league.

26. Buffalo Bills [25] — Since 2008, the Bills are 15-19 in Buffalo (.441). Over those same years, they are 1-4 in Toronto (.200). I'm sure there are plenty of Bills fans in Toronto, but it can't possibly provide the same home field advantage. It's not a stadium they're familiar with, they still have to travel, and it's a dome, which eliminates the team's traditional cold-weather advantage.

27. Tennessee Titans [29] — Charged with 14 penalties for 111 yards and 4 first downs. They went 2/13 on third downs, and only gained 12 first downs. They had two shanked punts and a blocked field goal. Jake Locker finished with 13 pass completions and 4 sacks. But the Jets are a train wreck, so they won.

28. Arizona Cardinals [31] — Held Matthew Stafford below 50% completions and intercepted him three times, with 186 INT return yards and 2 TDs. They scored 38 points despite gaining only 196 yards, with 12 first downs and 2/12 on third down conversions. They had almost as much yardage on interception returns as offense.

29. Detroit Lions [24] — Calvin Johnson has 106 catches for 1,667 yards. That's already the 8th-most receiving yardage in a single season, and 167 yards short of Jerry Rice's 1995 record. Megatron has over 100 yards in 10 games, one shy of Michael Irvin's 1995 record. That includes seven straight games over 115 yards. The Lions are 3-7 when Johnson hits triple digits, but they're also 1-3 when he doesn't.

30. Oakland Raiders [32] — Third straight win against the Chiefs, including their first season sweep since 2001. Oakland didn't score any TDs, but out-gained Kansas City 385-119 and 21 first downs to 7, more than doubling the time of possession.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [28] — Their offense is so atrocious, it's easy to forget how bad the defense is. Jacksonville ranks 29th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, and dead last against the run.

32. Kansas City Chiefs [30] — Held under 10 points for the fourth time in the last five games, and under 14 for six of the last seven. The exception was the game immediately following the Jovan Belcher murder/suicide, and that was probably a fluke. This team is so awful, it is ranked behind Jacksonville.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:16 PM | Comments (0)

December 17, 2012

Enough Already

It is no secret that the college sports scene has been experiencing some rapid shifts in allegiance over the past five years. Of course, this isn't altogether new. The Big 8 existed from 1907 until 1996 when it was dissolved and morphed into the Big 12, well, I guess it only technically was named the Big 8 from 1957 until 1996, but you get the point.

Now the Big East is the conference experiencing the next mass exodus from their conference, which will likely mean the Big East will no longer exist whatsoever.

This is a problem.

What makes this a problem is not the sheer and utter annoyance it causes fans like you and me. What truly makes this a problem is that the reasons for any college or university switching conferences is always about one thing: dollars.

Geography has historically been the main factor in deciding conference allegiance. The Big East was in the east. The Pac-10 was near the Pacific Ocean. The SEC was in the southeastern part of the country, but these obviously logical realities are no longer true. What is the main factor? Money. Make no mistake. This is not about competition. This is not about winning. This is about money.

You may be thinking to yourself, “Why is that a problem?” And honestly it is a fair question. In the past 18 months, three of the four major American professional sports have experienced a lockout of their players. Two of the four have had games cancelled and one is still fighting an uphill climb to even play. Because of what? Dollars (Canadian or American).

So why should we be up in arms (or even surprised) when another competitive sports organization — the NCAA — has to deal with its participants wanting more money?

Because these are not professional athletes. These are America's schools. Even as a sports fan, doesn't it bother you that you hear more about Duke University's basketball program than about Wake Forest's breakthrough research in regenerative medicine?

I don't expect the Green Bay Packers nor the Miami Heat to be known for anything other than sports and drama, but I do expect colleges and universities to have a bigger agenda than which conference they play basketball in.

Yes, many universities — even ones with great sports programs — are doing a fantastic job of educating people. But when I look at college sports and see the number of teams switching conferences and the number of schools being reprimanded and punished for breaking recruiting violations, I see schools that have seriously lost sight of their purpose and mission. No school in the entire world was founded on the principles of “We will win as many sports championships as possible.” Schools exist to educate.

I could understand professional sports teams switching conferences if it were financially beneficial, but it isn't. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did not receive any compensation for switching from the NFC Central to the NFC South when conferences realigned. They were just told what conference they were in and that's the way it was.

It is time to put an end to all of the distractions that college sports provide. And that needs to happen by telling teams what conference they are in. Period. With no exceptions. No money provisions. No independents. If teams want to be in a Division I sport, they will be grouped into the conferences that are chosen for them, geographically (with perhaps a taste of historical bias), and that's that.

Be honest, does it make any sense that Rutgers (located in New Jersey) will be in the same conference as Nebraska? They are 1,284 miles away! It is simply ridiculous that this is happening. What is it going to take for the powers that be to realize this is out of hand? Florida State joining the same conference as Washington State? Hawaii joining the Big East?

It's time for a solution, so here is a proposal.

In college football, there are currently 11 conferences and four independent teams totaling 120 schools. Could you ask for a better number? Create 10 conferences of 12 teams (or 12 conferences of 10 teams), have half be an upper tier and half be a lower tier based on the previous five seasons. The initial divisions would be messy, but it would balance itself out in a short amount of time.

Then pair an upper-tier conference with a lower-tier conference and relegate two teams each season from the upper tier to the lower tier in each conference and promote two teams each season from the lower tier to the upper tier in each conference. A playoff system could be developed easily from this system of either six or 12 teams (conference champions or top two teams of the upper tier conferences) and there you have a system in place that would run like clockwork for decades. Yes, getting it started and initial divisions would be messy, and there would have to be room to keep rivalries going between teams, but in five to 10 years, nobody would be complaining.

College basketball would be slightly messier, but we can make it work. There are currently 32 conferences and a total of 347 teams in Division IA basketball. The same system could be used as the one I proposed for college football. Create 28, 30, or 32 conferences of between 10 and 13 teams. A number of different tiers could be created. With 30 conferences, three tiers seems logical. So essentially you would have 10 conferences with classes A, B, and C. Again, relegating and promoting two teams each season based on performance.

With 28 or 32 conferences, you could use two tiers, but I'd honestly recommend four tiers. This would mean seven or eight conferences with classes of A, B, C, and D — again connected with relegations and promotions.

How would the playoffs work? Well, one could simply use the same selection process as currently exists, at least in part. I think all conference champions, regardless of which tier they land on, should be given opportunity to play in the tournament (which I would never change in any way other than perhaps getting it back to 64 teams).

So let's just say that we are using my ideal scenario and go with a 32 conference system and the NCAA tournament goes back to 64 teams.

All 32 conference champions are in the tournament. What do we do with the remaining 32 spots? Well, one could simply give them to the tier A conferences so that they would have five teams each in the tournament and B, C, and D would have one, but that hardly seems right. Or you could give the tier A conferences four teams each and tier B two teams each and C and D each get one.

I think what would probably be best though is that tier A gets three teams each, tier B gets two teams each, tiers C and D get one team each in the tournament and there are eight at-large bids available that would likely go to tier A teams, but not be limited by conference. Perhaps a stipulation could be made that tier D cannot have more than one team selected so as to separate them a bit more from tier C, but this is obviously a work in progress.

All in all, the point is, the NCAA could easily organize their two biggest money making sports of football and basketball into a far greater system of logic.

Conferences should not be governing bodies that can sue you for trying to leave. They should simply be geographical markers to properly organize a playoff system and continue or create rivalries.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 5:44 PM | Comments (2)

December 13, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 15

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia (+3½)

It's Thursday night in Philadelphia, and there's a new hero in town by the name of Nick Foles. Foles rallied the Eagles to a 23-21 come-from-behind win over the Buccaneers last week with 381 yards passing and 2 TDs, including the game-winner with 48 seconds left.

"Ironically," Foles said, "I've made everyone forget Michael Vick because Michael Vick can't remember Michael Vick.

"Our team owner, Jeffrey Lurie, is very proud of how seamlessly transition to a new quarterback has gone. He's hoping the transition to a new coach goes just as well."

The Bengals are still in the wildcard race, but their 20-19 loss to the Cowboys last week damaged their prospects. Cincinnati is 7-6, tied with Pittsburgh for second in the AFC North.

"We're expecting big things from A.J. Green," Marvin Lewis said. "A.J. is a superstar receiver, but he doesn't have a catchy nickname, or a mother who brings him Chunky Soup on the sideline, or a Twitter account he won't stay away from. What he does have is one name, and talent."

Cincinnati wins, 27-26.

NY Giants @ Atlanta (-1)

The Panthers whipped the Falcons 30-20 in Charlotte, further clouding Atlanta's viability as a Super Bowl threat. On Sunday in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons host the Giants, who whipped Atlanta 24-2 in last year's playoffs.

"Last year's 24-2 playoff defeat was a 'low point' for this team," Matt Ryan said. "But that was then; this is now. It's fight or flight for the Falcons. It's 'flap' or 'flop.' It's outlast or 'out first.' It's time to decide whether we have the heart to be champions. It's time to take a stance — let's just hope it's not a 'two-point' stance."

Eli Manning threw 4 touchdown passes and the Giants overwhelmed the Saints 52-27 last week. New York is 8-5, one game ahead of the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East.

"It looks like the road to the NFC championship will go through Atlanta," Manning said. "The 'road' isn't the only thing that will 'go through' Atlanta. The Falcons have issues, all pointing to an early playoff departure. Much like Interstate 85, the Falcons have numerous 'exit signs.' These Falcons are special birds — they land face-first instead of feet-first."

The Falcons find inspiration in one huge advantage they hold in Sunday's contest. No, it's not the fact that they are playing at home. It's that it's not a playoff game.

Ryan throws for 3 touchdowns, and the Falcons defend their turf with a 34-31 win.

Minnesota @ St. Louis (+3)

Adrian Peterson rumbled for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Vikings knocked off the Bears 21-7. Minnesota is 7-6 in the NFC North and battling for a playoff position.

"Adrian is unstoppable," Leslie Frazier said. "He has 1,600 rushing yards on the year, and he's set his sights on 2,000. 2,000 yards is a lofty goal for some, like Christian Ponder, but not for Adrian.

"As you may have heard, Chris Kluwe is in the news again. Of course, it's not for his punting. Last week, he wore a Post-it note advocating Ray Guy for the Hall of Fame. It's a controversial subject, but I support 'Guy' rights, as well."

The Rams beat the Bills in Buffalo 15-12 last Sunday, winning on Sam Bradford's touchdown pass to Brandon Gibson with 48 second left. The Rams are 6-6-1 in the NFC West.

"Our first task is to stop Peterson," Jeff Fisher said. "We just have to fill the gaps and hope for the best, which also describes our free agency philosophy."

The Rams load up the box to stop Peterson; Ponder sees something he likes over near the sidelines. It's not man-coverage; it's his fiancée and sideline reporter Samantha Steele, who, as her movie star name would suggest, does it all on camera. Distracted or not, Ponder finds the same results — 2 interceptions, and fewer yards passing than Peterson posts rushing.

Sadly for Ponder, the Rams drop the hammer on Peterson, when Fred Williamson falls from the sky, and hold Peterson to 96 yards.

St. Louis wins, 21-16.

Jacksonville @ Miami (-5)

Chad Henne makes his return to Miami as the 5-8 Dolphins host the 2-11 Jaguars. Henne signed with the Jaguars this summer after four seasons in Miami.

"I took my talents from South Beach," Henne said. "I called it 'a decision.' Of course, it didn't make half the news that Lebron James did. But what can I say? I'm certainly not a king, but I did assume the throne vacated by Blaine Gabbert. He had very few loyal subjects."

"Our head coach Mike Mularkey was admitted to the hospital on Monday. I think he was sick of losing. Unlike the Jaguars, he's better now."

The Dolphins lost 27-13 to the 49ers, Miami's fifth loss in their last six games. Miami is 5-8 in the AFC East.

"There are three NFL teams in Florida," Joe Philbin said. "Two of them will be in Miami on Sunday. That statement may also apply to the number of fans that show up at Sun Life Stadium. We've tried everything to attract fans to our home games. Everything, that is, except entertaining football. Scalping is legal in Miami, just not practical."

Miami wins, 27-18.

Green Bay @ Chicago (+2½)

The Bears dropped a crucial 21-14 loss in Minnesota last week that set back their hopes for the NFC North crown. With a win over the Packers, however, Chicago would forge a tie with the Packers in the division with three games remaining.

"Jay Cutler has a sore neck," Lovie Smith said, "but he intends to play. He's having trouble turning his head. Without him, our offense has trouble turning heads.

"Cutler's not our only injury concern. Robbie Gould is out for the season after injuring his left calf. That's too bad for our offense, because Robbie was the only Bear that could consistently find the end zone."

The Packers could clinch the division title with a win in Chicago. Last week, the Pack beat the Lions, 27-20, led by a rushing attach that accounted for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"Now when I saw there's a running game in Green Bay," Mike McCarthy said, "I won't be referring to the visiting team's.

"I can't understate the importance of a running game. Often, it sets up third-and-long situations, and Aaron Rodgers is lethal in those situations. But he can't carry this team on his back. We've ridden him far too long. That's why Aaron suggested I try the 'Dismount Double Check.'"

Green Bay wins, 24-16.

Washington @ Cleveland (+5)

Despite losing Robert Griffin III to injury late in the game, the Redskins pulled out an overtime 31-28 win over the Ravens to keep their playoff hopes alive. Washington is 7-6, one game behind the Giants in the NFC East.

"That was a scary injury," Mike Shanahan said. "I saw my life flash before my eyes. In other words, I saw nothing but John Elway.

"But Robert just has a sprained knee. In the event he can't play, Kirk Cousins will start. If that's the case, then 'Cousin's It.'"

The Browns whipped the Chiefs 30-7 last week in Cleveland to improve to 5-8 on the season. They'll try to derail the Redskins' playoff push when Shanahan leads Washington into the Dawg Pound.

"It's important Trent Richardson has a solid game," Pat Shurmur said. "This game is likely to be decided on the ground, or in the 'Trent-ches.' They call Trent the 'Dawg Pounder.' They call Washington's Alfred Morris the 'Hog Pounder.'"

Cleveland wins, 27-22.

Denver @ Baltimore (+2½)

Peyton Manning leads the 10-3 Broncos into Baltimore, where Ray Lewis and the Ravens await. The outcome could very well determine seeding in the AFC playoffs.

"The Ravens defense is not what it used to be," Manning said, "but they still can make an impact. Heck, what other defense in the league can get an offensive coordinator fired? I look forward to lining up and seeing Ray Lewis staring back at me. When Ray stares at you hard enough, it's like he's looking right through you. On the contrary, with just a cursory glance, I can see through the Ravens' defense."

"I've met the Ravens twice in my playoff career, and twice I've sent them home. We could possibly see them again in the playoffs. I'm not sure which quarterback is more likely to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs this year — me, or Joe Flacco."

The Ravens lost 31-28 in overtime at Washington, missing a chance to build a three-game lead in the AFC North over the Steelers and Bengals, who both lost. On Monday, John Harbaugh fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.

"Flacco likes to call his own plays," John Harbaugh said. "And he likes to call his own shots. Cameron's firing was a perfect example of that. Sometimes, elite quarterbacks deserve special treatment. In Joe's case, though, we made an exception."

Denver wins, 31-27.

Indianapolis @ Houston (-8)

The Colts and Texans hookup in the first of two meetings in three weeks. At 9-4, the Colts are in line for a wild card playoff spot, while Houston is motivated to lockup home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"We're looking forward to two games against the Texans," Andrew Luck said. "We call that a 'Texas Two-Step.' In New England, they call the Houston defense the 'Texas Two-Steps (Behind a Receiver)."

"No one would have thought our record would be 9-4. Just as no one thought my touchdown-to-interception ratio would be 18-18. I lead the NFL in interceptions. That means my balls have been in more hands than any other quarterbacks."

The Texans were blasted 42-14 on Monday night in Foxboro as Tom Brady threw for 296 yards and 4 touchdowns. The loss dropped the Texans to 11-2, one game better than the Patriots and Broncos in the AFC standings.

"Our two losses have come in nationally televised night games," Gary Kubiak said, "by a combined score of 84-38. The only thing with more 'exposure' is our defense."

The Texans rebound with a vengeance, sacking Luck four times and forcing 3 Colts turnovers. Arian Foster rushes for 2 scores, and this time, the Texans do the bullying.

Houston wins, 38-20.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-4½)

The Saints lost a shootout in MetLife Stadium, falling 52-27 to the Giants and the hot hand of Eli Manning. New Orleans is 5-8, one game ahead of the 4-9 Panthers, who occupy the NFC South cellar.

"The Giants piled up only 394 yards of total offense," Drew Brees said. "You could say our defense was 'below average.' Sean Payton unknowingly summed up our season back in March when he said, 'Start planning for next year.'

"I hear the NFL is considering doing away with kickoffs. No one is more perplexed by that than former Saints' coach Jim Mora, Sr. 'Kickoffs?! Kickoffs?! You're asking me about kickoffs?! Kickoffs?! Kickoffs?!"

The Buccaneers lost in heartbreaking fashion last week, falling 23-21 when Nick Foles found Jeremy Maclin for a touchdown on the game's final play. Now 6-7, Tampa will likely need to win their remaining three games and hope for help to make the playoffs.

"I'll say what the Glazer brothers said after firing Raheem Morris," Greg Schiano said. "'Good help is hard to find.'

"Paul Tagliabue overturned the suspensions of four current and former Saints involved in the bounty scandal. He 'mutinied' the bounties. I'm sure Roger Goodell is miffed. That's why Buccaneers' headquarters will fly the 'Jolly Roger' upside-down, or 'overturned,' if you will, and at half-mast."

The Saints celebrate their bounty victory with a free 8"x10" Roger Goodell photograph giveaway to the first 65,000 fans through the turnstyles. The "Head Shot" promotion is a huge success, and spurs the Saints to an exhilarating 41-35 win over the Bucs.

Detroit @ Arizona (+3)

The Cardinals were mauled by the Seahawks 58-0 last week, suffering the franchise's worst defeat in history. On Sunday, Calvin Johnson and the Lions' high-powered offense visits Glendale Stadium.

"Once again," Ken Whisenhunt said, "I have to choose a starter for Sunday's game. But it gets a little tougher with Ndamukong Suh coming to town. Now, not only do I have to select a starter, I have to convince one, as well.

"After the 'Malice In The Phallus' on Thanksgiving Day, there's a number of new 'Suh-phemisms' we could use to describe a kick in the balls. There's ''Kong in the Schlong,' 'Cleat to the Meat,' and my favorite, 'The Foot-Ball Move.'

The Lions fell to 4-9 after last week's 27-20 loss to Green Bay. Detroit is last in the NFC North and facing elimination in the playoff race.

"I expect the Cardinals to try their best to shut down Calvin Johnson," Jim Schwartz said. "Good luck to them. There's only one way the Cardinals could shut down Megatron, and that's if he played for them.

"I hear Vince Young texted Larry Fitzgerald and told him he could help the Card's quarterback situation. Larry responded that Vince could be useful in one way: showing Arizona quarterbacks how to disappear."

Prior to kickoff, Suh and Darnell Dockett meet on the field, where Suh asks Dockett to name two words that rhyme with "bit," besides "spit" and "quit." Dockett replies "I give up." Larry Fitzgerald's father hears this, and says, "I knew it!"

Johnson grabs 9 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown and the Lions win. 27-17.

After the game, Fitzgerald makes a bold decision, to stow away on the Lions' bus as it leaves Glendale. Alas, Fitzgerald is held up in a press conference and misses his ride, and the Cardinal superstar comes to the sad realization that in Arizona, he can't even "catch" a bus.

Carolina @ San Diego (-3)

The Chargers played their best game of the year in a 34-24 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, San Diego's first regular-season win in Pittsburgh. The win tempered the news from earlier in the week that Norv Turner and general manager A.J. Smith will be fired at year's end.

"If that's the case," Philip Rivers said, "then what I've been saying for weeks holds even more truth — this season can't end soon enough."

The Panthers pounded the Falcons 30-20, handing Atlanta only its second loss of the year. The win avenged an earlier loss to the Falcons, and Sunday's game will mark Panthers' head coach Ron Rivera's return to San Diego.

"Cam Newton had his best game of the year," Rivera said. "It was about time. It seems he traded in the super man cape for his big boy panties."

San Diego wins. 30-24.

Seattle @ Buffalo (+3)

The Seahawks forced 8 turnovers in last week's 58-0 dismantling of NFC West division rival Arizona. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 128 yards and 3 scores as Seattle posted the team's biggest shutout victory.

"The schedule says the Cardinals 'made a stop' in Seattle," Lynch said. "Otherwise, there's no other evidence that they did. The only thing the Cardinals lacked in the game was a safe word.

"Winning in such fashion was a great way to celebrate the state of Washington's legalization of marijuana. What better way to kick off bowl season?"

The Bills fell to 5-8 after last week's 15-12 loss to the visiting Rams. They'll face one of the NFL's toughest defenses when the Seahawks and Bills face off in Toronto.

"To my knowledge," Chan Gailey said, "the Bills' defense has never given up 58 points in a game, not even a Super Bowl. But crazier things have happened. Our 27th-ranked defense is as porous as the Canadian border."

Seattle wins, 30-13.

Pittsburgh @ Dallas (-1)

The banged-up Steelers invade Cowboys Stadium in dire need of a win. Pittsburgh lost 34-24 to the Chargers last week in Ben Roethlisberger's return from injury.

"I was embarrassed to be a Steeler," Roethlisberger said. "It's not the first time someone was embarrassed that I was Steeler, but it's the first time that I was."

The Cowboys won in Cincinnati 20-19 on Dan Bailey's 40-yard field goal as time expired. Now 7-6, Dallas is tied for second in the NFC East with Washington, one game behind the Giants.

"While Jerry Jones is pointing fingers," Tony Romo said, "Dez Bryant is breaking them. Interestingly enough, when Jerry's in the locker room, he sticks out like a sore thumb. I suggest he uses his finger for more useful enterprises, like ordering his liquor, or counting Super Bowls he's won in the last 15 years."

Pittsburgh bounces back with a 31-27 win.

Kansas City @ Oakland (-3)

The Raiders host the 2-11 Chiefs in a game that will decide little more than position in next year's NFL draft. The Chiefs lost 30-7 in Cleveland last week and have yet to defeat an AFC West division opponent.

"That's called a 'Rome-0-for,'" Romeo Crenel said.

The Raiders lost to Peyton Manning and the Broncos 26-13 last Thursday night and dropped to 3-10.

"Carson Palmer is no Peyton Manning," Dennis Allen said. "Of course, he's no Brady Quinn. Palmer was supposed to be the player we would build around. Not so. Considering what we gave up to get Palmer, it seems he is, indeed, a 'building block.'

"The fans of Raider Nation deserve more, and they've made it known. No longer does Darth Vader roam the stands; he's been replaced by 'Dearth Vader.'"

Oakland wins, 24-19.

San Francisco @ New England (-4)

After dominating the Texans 42-14 last week, the Patriots host the NFC West-leading 49ers on Sunday night in Gillette Stadium.

"There are holes the size of Texas," Tom Brady said, "and there are holes the size of Texans. The Houston defense has both.

"If they're the AFC's best team, then the Jets not only have a shot of making the playoffs, they have a shot at winning a game."

San Francisco spanked the visiting Dolphins 27-13 last week, as Colin Kaepernick, in his third start, threw for 185 yards and rushed for 53 and a touchdown. Kaepernick will start again for the 49ers on Sunday night.

"It's hard for me to feel sorry for Alex Smith," Kaepernick said. "Why? Because he's got the third-best quarterback rating in the league. Who's No. 1? Brady, of course. As you may have heard, Brady and his wife welcomed a baby girl last week. There were no complications. It seems Brady's not the only one with a flawless delivery."

New England wins, 27-24.

NY Jets @ Tennessee (-1)

The Jets nipped the Jaguars 17-10 last week to run their record to 6-7, good for second in the AFC East. Amazingly, the Jets are still in the playoff hunt, with an outside chance at the AFC's No. 6 seed.

"I know I've lost a lot of weight," Rex Ryan said, "but who would have thought I could fit in Mark Sanchez's hip pocket?

"It will be a struggled to be the AFC's No. 6 seed. I imagine the struggle to be the AFC's No. 3 seed will be even greater."

The Titans blew a 20-7 halftime lead at Indianapolis before crumbling in the latter stages and losing, 27-23. Jake Locker was again erratic, throwing two costly interceptions as Tennessee fell to 4-9.

"Locker's play has been unacceptable," Mike Munchak said. "And no one's more upset about it than Chris Johnson. He used to be the Titans' most dangerous player."

Tennessee wins, 26-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:47 PM | Comments (0)

Looking Ahead to Golf in 2013

Golf is traditionally a summer sport, but due to its being played all around the world, it can be played by the top professionals at any rate near enough all year round.

The first of the majors is, as always, the Masters, held in Augusta in early April. It is the only major which remains at the same course every year, and, as a result, nearly everyone scores low. Typically, Americans shine on this course. Due to the short rough, wide fairways, and quick greens, it's the big hitters that do well.

But, of course, it is far too early to start talking about who is going to win each major, and so why not take a review of the year and look forward to how some of the top performers of 2012 will look to the year ahead.

Here are some players to watch in 2013, for better or worse.

Rory McIlroy — How can this kind of list start with anyone but the Northern Irishman? He's had a fantastic 2012, and won his first U.S. PGA championship this summer. That, combined with a stellar performance at the Ryder Cup, and finishing the year by winning the European and American Tour money prizes, makes for good reading.

He's been unlucky at a couple of majors, when he stood a great chance of winning, and I expect in 2013 he's going to overcome those demons and win at least two majors in the next year. Some have tipped him to overhaul Jack Nicklaus's record of 18 majors, and so winning two or even three next year would be a great way to really get his game into top-gear (legend mode).

Tiger Woods — Unfortunately, not many good words to say about the 14-time major winner. He looked to be making a remarkable comeback earlier this year, rising to No. 2 in the rankings, before crumbling in all of the majors from great positions.

His performance at the Ryder Cup this year was abysmal. He didn't win a single rubber, and practically threw the whole match with a lackluster performance against Francesco Molinari in the tie that decided whether Europe won the tie or simply drew and retained the title. On the final hole, Woods missed two puts from within three feet before conceding the match — Molinari wasn't even forced to putt out.

I expect Woods to sink in the rankings once more, as his confidence is all but shot. He does have it in him to win a few smaller tournaments next year, but, crucially, no majors.

Luke Donald — He has been around and about the top of the rankings for a couple of years now and I expect more of the same. He'll dominate much of the tour and win a few big tournaments, but like Tiger, he is unlikely to get within a sniff of a major.

Lee Westwood — Another in the same boat as Donald — near the top, but without the game to really press a claim for the big ones. I feel 2013 is the year Westwood begins to slip away from the top of the pack after a poor Ryder Cup and under-performing at the majors once again. He'll maintain his high ranking for much of the year, but towards the business end of the year, expect that to fall.

Bubba Watson — Here is the lone American with some real potential. Keegan Bradley and Webb Simpson are good players, but do they really have that spark they need to keep chasing majors? In my opinion, no. They may well win more, but they do not have the same kind of A-game that Bubba Watson has. When you think he is down and out, he pulls back something each and every time.

In the Ryder Cup, sure he lost an important rubber on the final day, which allowed momentum to swing back towards Europe. But he spent much of the day playing catch-up with Luke Donald, who had had a fantastic start. Bubba could have lost with five holes still to play, but he pushed Donald almost until the end, before finally conceding with only one hole left to play. It is this kind of fighting spirit that gives him just that extra something over his opponents, and fellow Americans.

I think he'll be challenging at all of the big events next year, and he might even sneak another major to go alongside the Masters trophy he won at Augusta earlier this year.

And finally…

Scott Jamieson — Perhaps an odd pick. He hasn't won anything of note, and he's not been around on the tour for very long, and he's not even that young. However, the 29-year-old Scottish-born player has shot up in the rankings recently, and has won his first big tournament.

He's still outside of the top 100, but make no doubt that he will be in there and flying up the rankings next year. He's a late bloomer in terms of his golf, but he's yet to reach his peak, and that is something to look forward to. Though don't expect any majors quite yet.

Posted by Angus Saul at 11:21 AM | Comments (1)

December 12, 2012

2012 College Football Bowl Pool Guide

College football is stupid. Not the sport itself,, but how it runs its post-season. Even when we get our long-awaited playoff, it's still going to be stupid.

Know why?

Time.

What business is its right mind builds its product through several months of weekly drama, only to go completely in the dark right as everything is getting good and make everybody wait for the payoff? Would a TV show build the suspense through the whole season, then wait for a month before airing the season finale? Of course not.

Then again, this is college football, where conference re-alignment has rendered all logic and common sense moot.

But enough of this negativity. It's the holiday season, and that means we get to bet on not just Alabama/Notre Dame, but the Tulsa/Iowa State rematch, too!

So without further ado, here is the unofficial SC Bowl Pool guide, with picks against the spread for every game, listed in order of confidence points I'm attaching to them. Enjoy, and happy holidays.

35. Boise State (-5.5) over Washington — This was one of those lines where it jumped out so fast, I got a little nervous. UW has a weak run game (3.8 yards per carry), and their pass offense is nowhere near dependable enough to trust against a Boise defense that has allowed only three passing touchdowns on the season.

34. Oklahoma State (-16.5) over Purdue — It might be a bad sign that I decided before the bowl matchups were even announced that I was picking against the Boilermakers. The fact they're playing an Oklahoma State offense that is averaging more than 200 yards per game on the ground AND over 300 yards per game through the air just made it that much easier.

33. Utah State (-9.5) over Toledo — Sorry, MACtion fans. Toledo RB David Fluellen has had a heck of a season (1,460 rush yards, 13 TD), but he's going to have a rough go of it against an Aggies defense that held opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush and allowed just six rushing touchdowns all season. The fact that Fluellen is coming off an ankle sprain that forced him out of Toledo's season finale against Akron won't help.

32. Oregon State (-1.5) over Texas — I just can't see Texas and their inconsistent offense being able to move the ball on the Beavers. Oregon State's defense allowed under 20 PPG and can play both the pass (12 TD allowed with 19 INT) and the run (130 rush yards per game, 4.0 per carry average).

31. Vanderbilt (-6.5) over North Carolina State — NC State can't run (just 3.1 yards per rush), and Vandy isn't going to let you throw (only allowing 176 yards passing per game and 52% completion to opposing QBs). The fact this is a home game for the Commodores and NC State is in a program transition after the firing of Tom O'Brien won't help the Wolfpack's cause.

30. Fresno State (-12.5) over Southern Methodist — Get ready for the aerial attack featuring Fresno QB Derek Carr and five different Bulldogs receivers who have caught more than 30 passes this season (three with more than 50). Meanwhile, SMU ranked 10th in Conference USA in passing yards allowed at 271 per game.

29. Georgia (-9.5) over Nebraska — Even if you could un-see the 70-31 whooping Nebraska took from Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, there's no way you can trust Cornhuskers QB Taylor Martinez against a Georgia defense featuring Jarvis Jones, Johnathan Jenkins, Alec Ogletree and about five other guys who will be playing in the NFL in the next couple of years.

28. South Carolina (-5.5) over Michigan — I'll take the very good SEC defense over the mediocre Big Ten offense any day of the week, although if anybody can slow down South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, it will be All-American Michigan tackle Taylor Lewan.

27. Louisville (+13.5) over Florida — 13.5 is just too much to give to a team whose only double-digit win over the past five games came against Jacksonville State (and even that was only 23-0). Standout Cardinals QB Teddy Bridgewater should be healed from his variety of ailments by the time this game is played Jan. 2, and you know Louisville coach Charlie Strong — who won two national championship rings with the Gators under Urban Meyer — will have his team ready to face his former school.

26. Oregon (-9.5) over Kansas State — We saw in Kansas State's loss to Baylor that they have problems keeping up when the opposing offense gets going, and I don't think they have much of a shot of keeping a Ducks attack that averaged over 50 points and 550 yards per game per game in the 28-35-point range.

25. Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Ole Miss — Both teams had losing conference records, but there's something about this Pittsburgh team I just like. They play very sound defense, allowing under 20 points per game, under 4.0 yards per rush, and just a 56% completion percentage to opposing defenses. Add in senior quarterback Tino Sunseri and his 19/2 TD-to-Interception ratio, and I think the Panthers get the job done.

24. San Jose State (-7.5) over Bowling Green — Bowling Green has a good defense, but I don't think they can stop the pass attack of Spartans, whose only losses on the season are to Stanford and Utah State. I had this game as one of my top-five picks, but downgraded the confidence after Spartans head coach Mike MacIntyre took the Colorado job on Monday.

23. Tulsa (+0.5) over Iowa State — The rematch everybody's been waiting for! Iowa State won the season-opener for both teams, but the Golden Hurricane have come a long way since then. Two stats I just can't get past: Tulsa has 37 rushing touchdowns on the season, compared to just 10 for Iowa State. Also, Tulsa has 48 sacks out of its defense this year. Iowa State? 15.

22. Texas Tech (-12.5) over Minnesota — Tech lost head coach Tommy Tuberville to Cincinnati, but they didn't lose senior quarterback Seth Doege (3,934 pass yards, 38 TD). Tech is pretty terrible on defense (31.8 PPG allowed), but Minnesota's anemic offense (21.3 PPG) won't be able to take advantage of it.

21. Alabama (-9.5) over Notre Dame — I have no doubt the Irish defense will be able to hold the Alabama offense well under their 38.5 points-per-game average. What I doubt is Notre Dame's ability on offense to get anything at all done against the Alabama defense. 9.5 points is a lot to give, but I just don't trust Notre Dame freshman QB Everett Golson against the Tide D.

20. San Diego State (+2.5) over BYU — Even if BYU's stingy run defense (84.2 rush yards per game, only 5 rush TD allowed) can slow down San Diego State's powerful rush attack (229.2 yards per game, 30 rush TD), BYU's 1-4 record in games decided by less than a touchdown this season is enough to swing the pick to the Aztecs.

19. Wisconsin (+6.5) over Stanford — I really think Stanford is going to win this game. They have the run defense to match Wisconsin's run game, and if they can get the Badgers to throw the ball, they have the pass rush to wreck havoc (56 sacks on the season). With that said, this line is just too high. Of Wisconsin's five losses, only one was by 7, and that was in overtime. The other four were by 3 points each. Add in the Barry Alvarez factor (coaching with Bret Bielema off to Arkansas), and I just can't lay the 6.5.

18. LSU (-3.5) over Clemson — The two times Clemson had a chance to make a statement, they lost (to Florida State and South Carolina). LSU may not be quite up to national champion standards, but that defense can still get after it. If they can shut down Heisman winner Johnny Manziel (they picked him off three times on Oct. 20), they can slow down Taj Boyd and company.

17. Northwestern (+2.5) over Mississippi State — When in doubt, go with the team that's stronger in the trenches, and that's Northwestern. The Wildcats allowed only 3.6 yards per rush on defense, and racked up 28 rush touchdowns on offense. Plus, they have the advantage in the kicking game with All-Big Ten kicker Jeff Budzien.

16. Texas A&M (-4.5) over Oklahoma — Of course all the focus goes on Heisman winner Johnny Manziel, but the Aggies are far from a one-man show. Behind perhaps the most unheralded star in college football, DE Damontre Moore, the A&M defense held opponents to just a 3.7 yards-per-carry average and 30.7% third-down conversion percentage. Oklahoma's defense is pretty good in its own right, but Manziel's creativity with the ball will be the difference.

15. Louisiana-Monroe (-7.5) over Ohio — Both teams have big wins over BCS teams this season, Louisiana-Monroe over Arkansas and Ohio over Penn State. But Ohio is the prototypical "should have done better don't want to go to damn Shreveport" team, while the Warhawks are playing in their first bowl since joining FBS in 1994 and they get to do it in front of a home-state crowd.

14. UCLA (-0.5) over Baylor — Baylor is on a roll with three straight wins, but here's where the bowl schedule hurts — 26 days between games is a long time to maintain momentum. In the end, this will come down to which defense can get enough stops (like, two or three). Baylor allows opponents to convert on 56% of their third-downs and only had 13 sacks on the season. UCLA held opposing offenses to 32% conversion on third down and had 45 sacks on the season. No matter who wins this game, they can't set the over/under high enough.

13. Michigan State (+2.5) over TCU — Redshirt freshman QB Trevone Boykin has done a nice job for TCU since replacing Casey Pachall, but he's got some tough sledding coming up against one of the better defenses in the country at Michigan State. The only thing keeping me from putting this much higher is the total lack of faith of the Spartans' pass offense (53% completion, 13 TD, 10 INT), which could well keep the Horned Frogs in this one.

12. Nevada (+9.5) over Arizona — Anybody who has watched Rich Rodriguez's squad this year knows they can't play a lick of defense. Seriously, they gave up 437 yards and 31 points to Colorado. And the Wolf Pack are much better than the Buffs, especially with their red zone offense (47 touchdowns in 66 trips).

11. Arkansas State (-3.5) over Kent State — I love watching Kent State dynamo Dri Archer as much as anyone, but the match-up to watch in this game is Arkansas State QB Ryan Aplin (3,129 pass yards, 67.8% completion percentage, 23 TD, 4 INT) against a Kent State secondary that gave up 281.9 yards through the air per game.

10. Rice (+1.5) over Air Force — I don't particularly like taking a defense that gave up over five yards per carry (Rice) against the nation's second-best rushing attack (Air Force with 328.8 rush yards per game), but Rice can also run the ball (over 200 yards per game) and the difference between the kickers is huge: Owls junior kicker Chris Boswell has made 8-of-9 over the past four games, including four from 50-plus. Air Force senior Parker Herrington has made four field goals all season.

9. Louisiana-Lafayette (-5.5) over East Carolina — Ragin' Cajuns' dual-threat QB Terrance Broadway should make the difference in what amounts to a virtual home game for Louisiana-Lafayette.

8. Cincinnati (-7.5) over Duke — All the numbers are on the side of the Bearcats, who have won four of their last five compared to Duke's four-game losing streak. But Cincy just lost head coach Butch Jones to Tennessee (replaced by Texas Tech's Tommy Tuberville) and the game, Duke's first bowl game in 18 years, will be in the Blue Devils' Charlotte back yard. Still, talent is talent, and the Bearcats have more of it.

7. Northern Illinois (+12.5) over Florida State — Betting on the psychology of 18-22 year olds is risky business, but the way NIU was disrespected in national media after their selection to this game reminded me of the way Virginia Commonwealth was treated after their selection to the 2011 NCAA tournament (right before they made a crazy Final Four run). That's what I was thinking of when I heard the story of Huskies QB Jordan Lynch throwing an orange at the TV where Kirk Herbstreit was calling their inclusion in the Orange Bowl a joke. Is that a good reason to make a bet? Probably not, but it's enough of an excuse to take the 12.5 against a Florida State squad that has been known to lose focus against lesser opponents over the years — just like Kansas basketball, which lost to that same VCU squad in 2011. Just saying.

6. Syracuse (+3.5) over West Virginia — The Mountaineers defense gave up 38.1 points per game to opposing offenses this season. With all due respect to West Virginia record-setting senior QB Geno Smith, there's no way I'm betting on that defense.

5. Ball State (+7.5) over Central Florida — The stats slightly favor the UCF Knights, but the circumstances favor the Cardinals. For UCF, this game is a let-down after falling in the Conference USA title game. For Ball State and head coach Pete Lembo, this is a chance to win the program's first bowl ever. Barring a substantial difference in talent, take the team who wants it more.

4. Central Michigan (+5.5) over Western Kentucky — I really don't like Central Michigan's negative scoring margin (29.2 points per game on offense, 33.3 allowed on defense), or their porous rush defense (197 yards per game allowed), but I also don't like Western Kentucky going to the first bowl game since going to FBS without head coach Willie Taggart, who took the South Florida job on Dec. 7 (being replaced by Bobby Petrino and his motorcycle). Plus the game is in Detroit, so advantage Chippewas.

3. Rutgers (+2.5) over Virginia Tech — In a game featuring two terrible offenses (Virginia Tech slightly better) and pretty good defenses (Rutgers slightly better), I'll take the team with the positive turnover differential (Rutgers +9) over the team with the negative one (Virginia Tech -4).

2. Georgia Tech (+9.5) over Southern Cal — On talent, SC should run away with this one. But against George Tech's offense, if you aren't disciplined, you're in for a long day. And nobody has ever accused a Lane Kiffin team of being overly disciplined.

1. Navy (+13.5) over Arizona State — Arizona State's defensive advantage is in the pass game. Unfortunately for them, Navy doesn't have one. In a war of attrition on the ground, give me the guys whose run game is the thing they do best.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 12:17 PM | Comments (0)

December 11, 2012

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Has a team ever won the Super Bowl after firing a coordinator this late in the season? I don't know, but I doubt it.

* The Vikings' outspoken punter, Chris Kluwe, wrote "Vote Ray Guy" over the Pro Football Hall of Fame patch on his jersey. I applaud the idea, but Kluwe's got the wrong guy (so to speak). The selectors most open to enshrining punters are probably also the ones most likely to be skeptical that Guy is the best choice available. The available statistics don't suggest that he was uniquely successful. Tommy Davis, for instance, doesn't share Guy's notoriety, but a case might be easier to make for voters who don't remember Guy hitting the gondola.

* Week 14 saw 5 interceptions returned for touchdowns. The worst offender this season is Andy Dalton (4), followed by Drew Brees, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Hasselbeck, Andrew Luck, and Tony Romo (3 each).

* That list has old players, young players, good players, and bad players. I don't think it's a real meaningful stat, just interesting.

* ESPN showed a graphic that the Patriots have won 60 straight (61 now) when they have a halftime lead at home, stretching back to November 2000. That means Tom Brady has never lost a home game when the team was up after two.

***

What is up with NBC's highlights show this year? Almost every "highlight" is ground level, where you lose depth perspective and it's very hard to tell what's going on. That's the worst seat in the house you're giving us, you peacocks. It's weird, because the production of Sunday Night Football is very good. On to this week's power rankings, brackets show previous rank.

1. New England Patriots [2] — The offense is always outstanding, but the defense showed up big time on Monday night. Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and Rob Ninkovich all played at all-pro level. The Patriots are currently in line for the AFC's second seed in the playoffs, but if they win out and Houston loses one of its remaining three, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxborough.

2. Denver Broncos [1] — This is the first time all season they have dropped in my rankings. Naturally, it happens after a double-digit road win over a division opponent on a short week. The Broncos gained more than twice as many first downs as Oakland (30-14) and won time of possession by almost 15 minutes. What a bunch of bums.

3. San Francisco 49ers [4] — Converted just 2/10 third downs against Miami, and couldn't block Cameron Wake (3 sacks). They have a rough next two games, at New England and Seattle.

4. Houston Texans [3] — Embarrassing loss on national television, but they're 11-2. They've won six of their last seven, and they have wins over the Broncos, Ravens, and Bears. They got blown out by the Packers in Week 6 and rebounded with a 30-point romp over Baltimore. I'm not real worried. Matt Schaub was not at all sharp on Monday night, and I don't think Johnathan Joseph was totally healthy, but a couple bad breaks made the score look worse than it really was.

5. Green Bay Packers [6] — Seven wins in their last eight games. If Clay Matthews, Jordy Nelson, and Charles Woodson all come back healthy, this team could be a very serious threat in the postseason.

6. Cincinnati Bengals [7] — Looking at their playoff hopes, the loss to Dallas is obviously a huge disappointment. From a power ranking perspective, I'm not as concerned. The inconsistent Cowboys played one of their most focused games of the season, following the death of a teammate over the weekend. The Bengals even rise a spot based on the poor showings of teams like Atlanta, Baltimore, and Chicago.

7. Seattle Seahawks [12] — Set a franchise scoring record in their 58-0 win over the Cardinals. It was the 4th-biggest shutout win and 5th-largest margin of victory in NFL history. The Seahawks forced 8 turnovers and outgained Arizona by 339 yards. Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin each had over 100 rushing yards.

8. Baltimore Ravens [9] — Second straight loss, both on last-second or overtime field goals. The team responded by firing offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who was praised for his early handling of Joe Flacco in 2008, but whose offense had largely stagnated since. Former Colts head coach Jim Caldwell, the team's quarterbacks coach, replaces Cameron. The timing is surprising, given that (1) Baltimore has a two-game lead in the AFC North and is a virtual lock to win the division, and (2) the team scored 4 touchdowns on Sunday. How do you blame the offense after you lose 31-28? The Ravens are 0-2 without injured linebacker Dannell Ellerbe.

9. New York Giants [15] — Great week for David Wilson (100 rush yds, 227 KR yds, 3 TDs), but the Giants are 2-3 in November and December, with tough road games against the Falcons and Ravens the next two weeks. Those teams are a combined 11-1 at home this season.

10. Atlanta Falcons [5] — Prior to this week, I never ranked them lower than 6th. The Falcons started the season strong, with easy victories over the Chiefs and Chargers, plus a win against Denver. Since then, they've been eking out close wins over mediocre opponents and losing division games. Other than that Week 2 victory against the Broncos, Atlanta hasn't beaten any team currently in playoff position.

11. Washington Redskins [14] — 4-0 since the bye, including three straight against teams in the playoff hunt. They would rank higher than this if I knew for sure that a healthy Robert Griffin III would play in Week 15. Griffin sprained his right knee in the fourth quarter of Sunday's overtime win, though he might play next weekend against the Browns. If RG3 can't go, Kirk Cousins would become the eighth rookie QB to start in the NFL this season. Cousins played well in very limited action against Baltimore, with a last-minute touchdown pass and a successful quarterback draw for the game-tying two-point conversion.

If I were Washington, I'd probably sit Griffin out a week. Get your star healthy and let the Browns try to gameplan for a QB with 11 career pass attempts. They'll need RG3 more in January than they will in Week 15.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers [10] — In Ben Roethlisberger's first game back from injuries, the Steelers are 2-4. Big Ben averages 192 yards and a 76.4 passer rating. Pittsburgh's failures this week fell largely on a defense missing Ike Taylor and Lamarr Woodley, but I believe his coaches let Roethlisberger play when he's too hurt to perform.

13. Indianapolis Colts [16] — Three wins in a row, and seven of their last eight. None of the seven wins was against a team better than 5-9, and only one was by more than a touchdown. The Simple Ranking System at Pro Football Reference (based exclusively on strength of schedule and margin of victory) rates Indianapolis as the 25th-best team in the NFL.

They got hosed on this week's pick-six — Andrew Luck's knee was clearly down, and I don't understand how that call stood after replay — but Luck holds some unfortunate league leads: most games with 3 or more INTs (3), and most multi-interception games (5, tied with Drew Brees and Brandon Weeden).

14. Dallas Cowboys [17] — Won four of their last five, including two close, comeback wins in a row. Last week, the Chiefs seemed to play better in the aftermath of the Jovan Belcher tragedy. This week, the same thing happened to Dallas after the DUI incident that sent Josh Brent to jail and took the life of 25-year-old Jerry Brown, Jr. In a perverse way, incidents like that may benefit struggling teams. Maybe when your worries and stress are focused on something outside the game, you don't overthink — you just go out and perform.

Dez Bryant's finger injury will probably mean the end of his season. I've dropped them below Indianapolis on that assumption.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [13] — Second three-game losing streak of the season, on the heels of a four-game win streak. Vincent Jackson had 131 receiving yards this week. The rest of the team combined had 58.

16. New Orleans Saints [11] — Hard to believe the same defense that smothered Atlanta in Week 13 gave up 52 to the Giants in Week 14. The Saints' offense committed four turnovers, the defense couldn't get a stop in the red zone, and the special teams coverage got humiliated. When they short-kicked to stay away from David Wilson, Jernel Jernigan returned a kickoff 60 yards to the New Orleans 25-yard line.

17. Chicago Bears [8] — This ranking is wrong. I'm just not sure yet whether it's too low or too high. All rankings in this column are current: Week 14-15 strength, not a summary of the season. Jay Cutler left Sunday's game with a neck injury and is considered day-to-day. We've seen pretty clearly that the Bears are not a good team without Cutler. If he doesn't play in Week 15, this ranking could look downright generous. Even with Cutler (mostly), they've dropped four of the last five, including a loss to the one team they defeated. In Week 12, the Bears beat Minnesota easily, 28-10. Two weeks later, in Minnesota, the Vikings won 21-14, but a late Chicago touchdown makes that look closer than it was.

18. Cleveland Browns [20] — First three-game winning streak since the 2009 season, when they won their last four in a row. Under Eric Mangini!

19. New York Jets [22] — Still in the playoff hunt. All their remaining opponents are 5-8 or worse, and they're only one game behind in the race for the last wild card.

The Jets didn't score until the second half this week, but Jacksonville went 2/16 on third downs and Mark Sanchez didn't have to do much. I don't know that Sanchez is any worse than he was when they went to the AFC Championship Game. It's just that this year, the run game and especially the defense have not been as strong. Against an awful team like Jacksonville, you saw the way the Jets would like to operate.

20. Minnesota Vikings [23] — Adrian Peterson has rushed for 100 yards in seven straight games, over 150 in five of them. He averaged over 5 yards per carry in all seven, scored a touchdown in six of them, and had a run over 50 yards in five of the seven. Peterson says he's shooting for Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record (2,105), which would mean 505 yards over the last three games, 169 per week. Even to hit 2,000, he'll need a touch over 133. That's not easy, even for a runner as gifted as Peterson.

21. St. Louis Rams [18] — I think I had the Rams overrated last week. It's not normal for a team in this part of the rankings to drop three spots following a win, even an unimpressive one.

22. San Diego Chargers [24] — They signed Danario Alexander on October 22. Over the last five weeks, he has 30 catches for 494 yards and 5 TDs. In most fantasy scoring systems, he's behind only Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant during that stretch. Johnson, for what it's worth, has 779 yards in the last five games, 156 per game.

23. Carolina Panthers [25] — Cam Newton has three straight games with multiple passing TDs, no interceptions, passer ratings over 110, and at least 50 rushing yards. On the FOX pregame show, Howie Long spoke about how Newton and RG3 have changed the way teams evaluate quarterbacks. Griffin has more rushing yards (748) than Michael Turner or Ryan Matthews. Newton has exactly as many rushing yards (640) and touchdowns (7) as Mikel Leshoure. You could probably put the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick in the same category, though I'm not sure if he's more cause or effect.

24. Detroit Lions [19] — Fifth loss in a row. They were all against teams with winning records, and none were blowouts, but to stay in the top 20, you need to win at least once a month.

25. Buffalo Bills [21] — Fred Jackson injured a knee in the loss to St. Louis and will probably miss the rest of the season, which likely translates to increased touches for C.J. Spiller. Meaning no disrespect to Jackson, I doubt Bills fans are worried about a drop-off in the team's performance. Their Week 15 matchup, which counts as a home game, will be played at Toronto's Rogers Centre.

26. Philadelphia Eagles [31] — Won for the first time since September (they beat the Giants!), and Nick Foles had a nice game. But when you throw 51 times and take 6 sacks, you damn well better pass for 381 yards and 2 TDs, especially if the defense loads up to stop the run (Bryce Brown had 12 carries for 6 yards). Let's also keep in mind that Tampa Bay ranks last in the NFL in pass defense.

27. Miami Dolphins [27] — Five losses in their last six games. The Dolphins scored 20 points or fewer in all five defeats.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars [26] — Last month, I praised the move to Chad Henne (and Gabbert is on IR now anyway), but he has not played well. Henne has seen significant action in six games this season. In four of those six, Henne's completion percentage was under 50%. Sure, it's an overrated stat, but in today's NFL, completing half your passes is a basic standard of competence. Only three players all season have four or more games under 50%, with at least 15 pass attempts: Mark Sanchez (6), Andrew Luck (4), and Henne (4). Sanchez and Luck have started every game.

29. Tennessee Titans [28] — Jake Locker outrushed Chris Johnson this week, 51-44.

30. Kansas City Chiefs [29] — Jamaal Charles rushed for 165 yards in their 30-7 loss. How often does a player rush for 165 yards and his team loses? How often do they lose by 23? How often do they only score 7 points?

(1) Historically, not a whole lot. Since realignment, teams are 144-26 (.847) when they have a 165-yard rusher. This year, though, 165-yard rushers are 7-6.

(2) Almost never. It's only happened four other times in NFL history:

1. 1976: Bills at Colts. O.J. Simpson rushed for 171 yards but Colts won 58-20.
2. 1978: Browns at Bengals. Greg Pruitt rushed for 182 yards but Bengals won 48-16.
3. 1985: Falcons at Chiefs. Gerald Riggs rushed for 197 yards but Chiefs won 38-10.
4. 2001: Patriots at Panthers. Richard Huntley rushed for 168 yards but Pats won 38-6.

(3) Almost never. It's only happened four other times in NFL history:

1. 1982: Saints at Cowboys. Dallas won 21-7 despite George Rogers' 167 rushing yards.
2. 1998: Chargers at Chiefs. Chiefs won 23-7 despite Natrone Means' 165 rushing yards.
3. 1999: Steelers at 49ers. Steelers won 27-6 despite Charlie Garner's 166 rushing yards.
4. Huntley again.

31. Arizona Cardinals [30] — If you really want a summary of how badly they were beaten down, scroll up and read the Seahawks entry. The quarterback play is not NFL level. Arizona ranks last in the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, sack percentage, sacks, and sack yardage. I don't know if Vince Young specifically is the answer, but it is stunning to me that guys like Young are available in free agency and the team is playing John Skelton and Ryan Lindley. The trade deadline has passed, but how did they not make a move for Matt Flynn or David Garrard or Kyle Orton or someone?

32. Oakland Raiders [32] — On the bright side, they sacked Peyton Manning three times, tying his season high.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:07 PM | Comments (0)

December 10, 2012

Army/Navy is What Football is All About

This is what college football is all about.

I had the privilege of catching the final two minutes of the Army/Navy game today, and that 120 seconds of game time — along with the few minutes after it ended — exemplified everything that I love about the game. It also resurrected some old sentimental feelings about the greatest rivalry in college sports that I had somehow forgotten over the years.

I remember as a child anticipating the final couple weeks of the college football season because all the great rivalries seemed to be televised, even though there were only two networks that broadcasted games, and I looked forward to each game as if it was the national championship. Pitt/Penn State, Ohio State/Michigan, Alabama/Auburn, Oklahoma/Nebraska, USC/UCLA, Army/Navy, and the list could continue. These bitter rivalry games held such a higher level of intensity and pageantry as compared to other games, even conference rivalries, that they were much more intriguing and fun to watch. When I saw this year that USC and UCLA were both wearing their home uniforms for their game a couple weeks ago, it brought back the days of my youth when the schools shared the L.A. Coliseum and wore their dark jerseys for the game. Good times.

But watching the end of the Army/Navy game took me back to a time when college football was such a simpler game, at least aesthetically. Games were only played on Saturdays; ABC and CBS were the only place one could watch college football on TV; only the best of the best got into bowl games. And this game reminded me of the reason most college football players don the pads every weekend and play their hearts out for 60 minutes — simply because they love the game and they're proud of their school.

The Army/Navy rivalry embodies all that is right with college football, or at least what used to be right with it. These kids play because they love it, not because of the prospect of a big paycheck in the pros, or for the notoriety on campus that being a student-athlete brings, or for any other reason. They know that their future includes a prescribed stint, possibly a career, in the military, and rarely does it include a life in the NFL thereafter. Yet they leave every ounce of energy on the field every Saturday.

Watching Army quarterback Trent Steelman sob uncontrollably on the bench after the Black Knights lost a fumble on the potential game-winning drive at first offended me. "Come on," I beckoned toward the TV. "You're a Soldier; you're supposed to be a tough guy! It's a freaking football game! Man up, quit your crying and take the loss gracefully!" But then, the more I thought about it, the more I actually empathized with him. It was the final game of his career. He probably would never play football again. He was about to break a 10-game losing streak to his arch-rival and he had some responsibility in botching the final play. He only had a life of military service to look forward to and not one of fame and fortune as an NFL star. It might even have been the final time he could cry openly. This kid had a lot more on the line than most college football players, and he wore his emotions on his sleeve — more commendable than condemnable.

Aside from the late-game drama, just seeing the stands filled with young men in uniform chanting and singing really caused me to recall what a great rivalry this game really is — arguably the greatest rivalry in all of sports. This game doesn't just hold bragging rights for a geographic region or a state or even a city; it holds them for an entire branch of the military, something that involves hundreds of thousands of people scattered all around the world. It's the most patriotic sporting event in the country, and holds enough weight that the president or vice-president shows up every year to watch. What other sporting event can do that?

With all the changes occurring on the college football landscape, including watching old rivalries being brushed aside for a better paycheck in a more prestigious conference, I hope the one thing that is never affected by them is the Army-Navy game. The pageantry, prestige and emotion that envelops this game every year is something that should never be altered. In fact, I would suggest that Congress enact a law designating the Army/Navy game as national historic event, like a landmark or district that can never be touched by modernization. Keep it the way it is and never change it; that way we'll always have something to remind us of simpler times without having to rely on our fading memories.

Posted by Adam Russell at 1:55 PM | Comments (3)

Marvin Miller, RIP: The Liberator

Let's see. The Hall of Fame includes one or two incompetent commissioners, an odious owner or three, and more than a few players whose credentials are questionable at best. Come to think of it, the Veterans Committee's pre-integration panel just elected the man (Jacob Ruppert) who built the first Yankee dynasties, the longtime ump (Hank O'Day) who called Fred Merkle out on the infamous boner, and a 19th-century barehand catcher (Deacon White) to Cooperstown.

But the shrine doesn't include among its pioneers three other men who changed baseball irrevocably, and for the better. The three men who produced the dissolution of the reserve era and the end of baseball players' treatment as mere chattel.

Curt Flood died of cancer at 59 fifteen years ago. Marvin Miller, the Players' Association executive director who stood by Flood and all his men so long, and so well, died at 95 on November 27. Andy Messersmith, who finished what Flood began and started it over a personal insult and a no-trade clause, retired after a second tour as Cabrillo College's baseball coach in 2009, and probably still lives in California.

No crying in baseball? Bosh. There's still, often enough, no justice in baseball. Shepherding the Major League Baseball Players' Association from what amounted to a company union at the company's pleasure, Miller stood above all for justice for a class of men who had been mere property until he entered and — step by step, element by element, particularly when Flood and then Messersmith entered the canvas — changed their portraiture.

Can people possibly still believe Miller destroyed rather than dignified and enhanced the game? Do people really still believe Miller's legacy is the destruction rather than the definition of competitive balance?

Well, there are those among us who still believe the sun revolves around the earth and the Apollo moon landings were a Hollywood stunt film. Such people are dismissible as cranks. So should be those who think Miller wrecked the glorious alleged golden era of baseball. And the writ of exile should only begin with the one marked, "More teams have won pennants and World Series since the advent of free agency than won pennants and World Series before it."

Not that things were all that simple when Miller agreed to leave the Steelworkers' Union to take hold of the players' association. Even the players who first engaged Miller to think about becoming their union's executive director had a certain wariness.

The players' association assigned a committee to find a director: future Hall of Famers Robin Roberts (nearing the end of his long, ultimately Hall of Fame career) and Jim Bunning (arguably still at the height of his); veteran outfielder-pinch hitter Harvey Kuenn (a former batting champion ground down by leg troubles); and veteran pitcher Bob Friend. Their first choice was Bob Cannon, a judge who'd helped the players land an early pension plan hike and in whom the owners were willing to invest, as well.

Cannon simply didn't want to move his office to New York as the players wanted. George Taylor, a labour adviser to several presidents, happened to know Miller. He wanted to know if Miller knew Roberts, who had called Taylor for help finding a new director. Taylor swung a meeting between Miller, Roberts, Bunning, and Kuenn.

At first, only Roberts was impressed. Bunning, according to several published writings on the matter, favoured an attorney who'd represented him in a lawsuit once. Kuenn seemed non-committal one or the other way other than expressing a wariness about trade unionism. Friend still backed Cannon, until Cannon's refusal to move to New York was certain.

Miller told Friend he'd take the job if the players elected him. His background with the Steelworkers' Union made him anathema to some players until Miller himself made his rounds, and the owners helped sweeten his pot by holding a number of threatening meetings with their players. The players elected him by a landslide.

Miller's original effectiveness came because, unlike the image in which the owners tried to dress him, he went about his business in quiet steps. He also belied the image of the union bosses against whom the rank and file had little influence or recourse. A constant theme, sometimes misunderstood by his own employers, was, "This is your union." He even encouraged players to visit the association offices in New York whenever they were in town, whenever they liked.

When the teams' player representatives first rounded up after Miller was elected, in 1967, Miller handed each one a legal pad and a pen and a single instruction: "List every grievance you've got that you'd like to see addressed. We'll pile them up and go through them one by one."

The original grievances? According to John Helyar (in The Lords of The Realm), they had almost nothing to do with contracts. They included ballpark safety (the old Crosley Field scoreboard, for one, right on the field at the top of left field's ridge), hotel accommodations on road trips ("'fleabag' was too kind a term for some," Helyar noted), clubhouse conditions ("the wire that powered the Tiger Stadium whirlpool ran through water), and scheduling. (Players then were frazzled by doubleheaders the day after night games.)

"The players come and go," American League president Joe Cronin advised Miller, "but the owners stay on forever." Soon enough, Cronin, his National League counterpart, and the eternal owners would learn how wrong they were. (Trivia: Only two teams today are owned by the men who owned them during Miller's final years: the New York Mets, and the Chicago White Sox.)

Miller understood how new bargaining was to baseball players. He also understood he wasn't going to yank them overnight into a formidable force. "He never let the cart get before the horse," recalled Tim McCarver, at the time a Cardinals catcher. "Everything was building from a base." From the minimum salary (Miller and company bargained it up to a whopping $10,000 a year by 1968) to pension fund contributions.

The reserve clause was barely a mark on a radar before Cardinals owner Gussie Busch, outraged at the very idea of a players' association pushing for a pension fund hike, decided to dress his players down in spring training 1969. Those players included Flood, who'd just negotiated himself a salary hike following a small holdout. But the center fielder seethed at the idea that Busch could, and did, think of his players as "green recruits" who could be told to behave or get out, when they had no real right to go that way thanks to the reserve clause's deployment.

Read very carefully: Miller didn't approach Flood. When Flood was traded (with McCarver, relief pitcher Joe Hoerner, and outfielder Byron Browne) to the Phillies (for Dick Allen, middle infielder Cookie Rojas, and a minor player named Jerry Johnson), he called Miller. He wanted to sue baseball, after first filing a formal request with Commissioner Bowie Kuhn. Flood lost, all the way to the Supreme Court, but he'd kicked a door open. Miller and the Players' Association paid the legal expenses.

Miller also didn't initiate an approach regarding another Cardinal, a kid named Ted Simmons, who refused to sign for 1972. (When the players struck briefly over another pension issue, in 1971, Simmons made so little he moved in with his in-laws.) He'd sought a raise to $30,000; general manager Bing Devine thought it was too much, too fast, even if what Simmons wanted was far below the league average.

The Cardinals wouldn't challenge Simmons by way of the rule then in force that an unsigned player couldn't play. Simmons refused to budge. He played on, hit like hell, and suddenly began gaining sympathy, especially when he made the all-star team. Miller, who'd only advised Simmons to do what he thought right, got handed some powerful ammunition when the Cardinals finally offered, and Simmons signed, a two-year deal for the $30,000 he sought for 1972 plus $45,000 for 1973.

"The Lords," Helyar wrote, "betrayed how they really felt. They didn't want to see (the reserve clause) tested. They'd rather give a kid catcher $75,000 than hand [the reserve clause] over to an arbitrator."

They'd prove themselves willing to give a lot more when Charlie Finley reneged on an insurance payment mandated in Catfish Hunter's contract and Hunter — who accepted when Miller asked if he'd like the players association involved — challenged him on it. An arbitrator ruled for the future Hall of Fame pitcher. The bidding war went as high as the Royals' $3.8 million five-year package. Hunter ended up taking less than that to become a Yankee. (The key issues included guaranteed annuities to ensure his children's education.)

The Hunter case yielded an issue the owners probably lived to regret. Miller and a few of the Lords (Helyar has mentioned Walter O'Malley and the Montreal Expos specifically) favored salary arbitration. The problem was that the owners got on board too late. They'd refused it for long enough; now, the Hunter case showed what free agency could yield. "If we'd started salary arbitration earlier," said John Gaherin, a negotiator on the owners' Player Relations Committee, " we might have forestalled [any reserve clause challenge]. But I got no interest in our camp for years."

Then came Messersmith. Again, Miller didn't make the first move. Dodger general manager Al Campanis did. He angered Messersmith during contract talks, with personal issues thrown in, to the point where the right-hander wouldn't talk to anyone lower than team president Peter O'Malley. Then, he demanded a no-trade clause in his new deal. The Dodgers refused to think about it, so Messersmith refused to sign his 1975 deal.

What began as a personal insult didn't become a larger issue until the season reached the stretch and Messersmith already had a solid season going. (He'd lead the league in shutouts, innings pitched, and complete games, not to mention coming in second with his 2.29 ERA.) Miller didn't reach out to him until August, and Messersmith accepted Miller's challenge: if he remained unsigned when 1975 ended, he'd file a grievance seeking free agency.

He refused to sign anything without a no-trade clause, no matter the money, and the Dodgers were willing to show him the money and then some. ("The money was incredible, but they wouldn't bring the no-trade to the table ... Now I understood the significance of what this was all about. I was tired of players having no power and no rights.")

Messersmith filed. Dave McNally, the former Oriole standout, on the brink of retirement thanks to arm trouble, smarting over the Expos reneging on a promised two-year deal, agreed to join the case in the event Messersmith backed away. Messersmith didn't. Arbitrator Peter Seitz ruled for Messersmith and McNally. (McNally died in 2002.)

And Miller actually refused to reach for the whole pie out of the chute. He had to convince the players that going full throat for a full market right off the Messersmith bat would actually depress and not enhance it. But Miller would protect whatever the pie was, even if the owners sought to punish those among their own who signed more than their presumed share of free agents (who'd be limited thus), which provoked the 1981 players' strike.

Yet Miller could find no substantial support where it mattered when it came to his place in the Hall of Fame. The irony is that, while a couple of voting committees included a reserve-era player or three and couldn't muster enough support to elect him, Miller's candidacy drew support over the years from men who'd fought him at various points among tooth, fang, and claw — including, but not limited to, current commissioner Bud Selig, former commissioner Fay Vincent, and former owners' negotiator Ray Grebey. If you're charitable, you can say better late than never. If you're not, you can fume at the hypocrisy of one or two such late-season supporters.

Miller finally rejected any thought of going into the Hall of Fame, never mind how he deserved (deserves) enshrinement. To hell with Reggie Jackson having said the Hall of Fame was or should be for players alone. (Who would be his first purge target, one wonders?) "The Hall of Fame is about players," Jim Bunning once said, "and Marvin did more for the players than anyone else." (Hank Aaron and Joe Morgan are also on record in favour of Miller's enshrinement.)

So did Flood and Messersmith, though I don't notice any large swelling of support among players Hall of Fame or otherwise for their enshrinement as pioneers, either. "Curt Flood stood up for us," Ted Simmons once said. "[Catfish] Hunter showed us what was out there. Andy showed us the way. Andy made it happen for us all. It's what showed a new life."

Allen Barra, who helped Miller cobble together his memoir, A Whole Different Ball Game, shares two anecdotes from his final visit with Miller, a week or so before Miller's death.

Barra apparently arrived at Miller's New York apartment just after Miller took a call from Sandy Koufax. Koufax retired a year before Miller became the players' association executive director; the Hall of Famer called to thank him for what he'd done for baseball. "Sandy's always been a class act," Miller told Barra. "But can you imagine Sandy Koufax as a free agent?"

Then, Miller told Barra about meeting Alex Rodriguez at a 2009 awards ceremony, shortly before Miller's wife passed away. A-Rod introduced his now-former wife to Miller thus, according to Miller: "This is the man to thank for our vacation home."

"I'd reckon him," said one baseball titan, "to be one of the three or four most important men in baseball history. Babe Ruth and Jackie Robinson, of course. I'd have to put Branch Rickey in the top four. But probably Marvin before him." That was Red Barber speaking. Told of Barber's remark by Barra, the man who shepherded baseball players to the rights enjoyed by every employee from the lowest working stiff to the highest management denizen, the right to choose their own career destinies freely, flashed a smile.

"I certainly wouldn't object," said Miller, who must have appreciated an unintended irony (Ralph Kiner once credited the penurious, often devious Rickey with being the ultimate inspiration to a players' union), "if he put me in back of Branch Rickey."

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

December 6, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 14

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

Denver @ Oakland (+10½)

Peyton Manning makes his first trip to Oakland as a Bronco, adding more heat to an already intense rivalry. At 9-3, Denver has clinched the AFC West.

"It's certainly appropriate that Cee Lo Green performs the intro to Thursday Night Football for a game in Oakland," Manning said. "In fact, he should do it live. Who wouldn't want to see a pre-game concert called 'The Black Hobbit From the Black Hole?'

"But it's never easy playing in Oakland, unless you're the visitor. Oakland's giving up 31 points per game. The team should be called the 'Oakland Raided.' But I'm not complaining about a game in Oakland. What's one day in the Black Hole, when you've spent a year in limbo?"

The Raiders lost their fifth game in a row in a 20-17 loss to the Browns in Oakland. Now 3-9, Dennis Allen and the Raiders look to avenge an earlier loss in Denver.

"We're looking forward to hosting Thursday Night Football," Dennis Allen said. "As three-lettered acronyms go, 'TNF' is the biggest story in Oakland since 'GHB.' Sebastian Janikowski is a lot like Raiders football — they'll both put you to sleep."

Manning takes a look at the Oakland defense, and sees the same thing that attracted him to Denver — it's a place he'd like to throw passes. Manning goes for the usual — 273 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, and audibles that make you go "hmmm."

Denver wins, 31-17.

St. Louis @ Buffalo (-3)

The Rams kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a huge 16-13 overtime win over the 49ers, just three weeks after the two teams played to a 24-24 tie in San Francisco. Greg Zuerlein kick a 53-yard field goal to force overtime, then booted a 54-yarder to win the game.

"There's was another 'big foot' sighting in an NFC dome," Jeff Fisher said, "and it wasn't Ndamukong Suh. Suh make kick where it counts, but Zuerlein kicks when it counts.

"I think this proves we can play with the NFC's best. Now, if someone could tell me who the NFC's best team is, we'd like to play them."

The Bills remained alive in the wild card race with a 34-18 win over the Jaguars. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed only 9-of-17 passes, but two were for touchdowns. Buffalo is 5-7 in the AFC East.

"Oddly enough," Fitzpatrick said, "some of my passes sailed 'wide right.' They call me 'The Tabloid,' because I'm not known for my accuracy."

Zuerlein again plays a huge part in the outcome of a game, with four field goals. His 48-yarder with under a minute left in the fourth quarter provides the margin of victory, as the Rams "foot the Bills," 23-20.

Dallas @ Cincinnati (-2)

The Bengals inched closer to the Ravens in the AFC North race, as Cincy downed San Diego 20-13 while the Ravens lost 23-20 to the Steelers. Now 7-5, the Bengals trail the 9-3 Ravens by two games.

"As you may have heard," Andy Dalton said, "Nick Lachey was kicked out of Qualcomm Stadium in our win last week in San Diego. They obviously didn't know who he was, which is a common problem for Nick. 'Who dey?' No, 'Who you?'The Bengals are proud to be the NFL's only team supported by one-fourth of 98 Degrees."

The Cowboys took the victory in a 38-33 shootout over the Eagles last Sunday night, improving their record to 6-6, one game behind the Giants in the NFC East. Dallas will attempt to get above .500 for the first time since they were 2-1.

"Even if we get over .500," Tony Romo said, "we'll still be under 'achievement.'

"We haven't exactly set the league on fire on the road. It's a jungle out there. In Cincinnati, it's a 'Jungle' in there. Hopefully, against the Bengals, we can earn our 'stripes.' It's a good thing Jerry Jones doesn't own the Bengals. If he did, he would be considered 'Overlord of the Jungle.'"

An inebriated Lachey is ejected from the stadium late in the third quarter and taken to jail. There, he is released under his own recognizance, because no one else recognizes him.

Dallas wins, 27-24.

Kansas City @ Cleveland (-4½)

The Chiefs won for only the second time this year, edging the Panthers 27-21 at home last Sunday. Brady Quinn threw for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"That was Quinn's best game as a Chief," Romeo Crenel said. "It was nice to see him step up. Most Chiefs' fans think it would be even nicer to see me step down.

"Brady's a former Brown, so he knows what it's like to play in Cleveland Stadium. He'll feel right at home, because just like in Arrowhead Stadium, he'll be booed."

The Browns vanquished the Raiders in Oakland, 20-17, behind 364 yards passing from rookie Brandon Weeden. They'll host the 2-10 Chiefs in the Dawg Pound on Sunday.

"This should be a very competitive game," Pat Shurmur said. "For what it lacks in playoff implications, it will make up for in drama. That would make it the most dramatic football game in history."

Cleveland wins, 26-17.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-3½)

Andrew Luck continued his rookie heroics last week, throwing for 391 yards and 4 touchdowns in a comeback 35-33 win over the Lions in Detroit. Indy is now 8-4 and is solid position to earn a wild card playoff spot.

"With 3 interceptions," Reggie Wayne said, "Luck had his share of mistakes to go long with his 4 TDs. That's okay, because we'll take the good with the bad. We call it our 'hero tolerance' policy.

"But let's not be so liberal with the use of Luck and 'MVP' in the same sentence. His touchdown to interception ratio is about 1:1. By that rationale, even New York Jets quarterbacks would be MVP candidates."

The Titans lost 24-10 to the visiting Texans, who clinched the AFC South title. Jake Locker struggled again, completing only 21-of-45 passes as the Titans fell to 0-4 in the division.

"Jake completed less than 50% of his passes," Mike Munchak said. "He's not 'half bad'; he's worse.

"Like Luck is now, Locker was a rookie once. If improvement is any indication, he still is. Jake can't read a progression, much less make any."

Indy wins, 25-23.

Chicago @ Minnesota (+2)

The Bears fell out of the NFC North lead in a 23-17 overtime loss to the Seahawks. Chicago shares an 8-4 record with Green Bay, who leads the division by virtue of their Week 2 win over the Bears.

"It doesn't look like a 'Super Bowl Shuffle' circa 2012 is in order," Jay Cutler said. "Reaching the Super Bowl is an ambitious target, but I still think we can get there. Bears' fans have been waiting 25 years for another quarterback to 'shoot the moon.'"

The Bears will face Adrian Peterson, the NFL's leading rusher, who exploded for 210 yards last week in Green Bay. Despite Peterson's day, the Vikes lost 23-14, handicapped by two crucial Christian Ponder interceptions in the red zone.

"Not only did Adrian run wild on Sunday," Leslie Frazier said, "he didn't fumble once. He didn't even fumble twice. And that makes our decisions to throw in the red zone all the more perplexing. What's worse than an opponent taking the ball out of Peterson's hands? His coaches doing it.

"After a promising rookie season, Ponder has regressed. But his devotion to the Lord makes that of Tim Tebow pale in comparison. Why, because Ponder's been on a season-long 'Christian retreat.'"

The Bears will be without Brian Urlacher, who injured his hamstring, for 2-4 weeks. In other words, he should be back just in time to see the Bears miss the playoffs.

Vikings win, 19-17.

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay (-8)

The Eagles lost their seventh consecutive game, going down 38-33 in Dallas on Sunday night. On Monday, the Eagles fired defensive line coach Jim Washburn, while Andy Reid named Nick Foles the starting quarterback for the remainder of the year.

"If I was as adept at identifying talent as I was at identifying fall guys," Reid said, "I wouldn't be in this position.

"And speaking of 'in this position,' can you believe I'm still coaching the Eagles? Wonders never cease, and neither do wanders.'"

The Bucs lost 31-23 in Denver to fall to 6-5, as Josh Freeman and crew were outgunned by Peyton Manning. While the 11-1 Falcons have clinched the NFC North, Tampa is still in the running for a wild card spot.

"It's a long shot," Greg Schiano said, "but we'll keep trying. I'm of course referring to our habit of bum-rushing the opposing quarterback on kneel-downs. Does it ever work? Nope. I liken it to the Philly front office's philosophy on head coaches; it never works, but they keep doing it.

"Reid is insistent on going out on his own terms. I think Philly fans would like to see him go out on our terms. There's a boat in our end zone, with a plank, that's made for walking."

Freeman throws for 2 scores, and Doug Martin rushes for 124 yards and a score. The Bucs win, 30-20.

Baltimore @ Washington (+1)

With a chance to all but wrap up the AFC North, the Ravens lost 23-20 to the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers in Baltimore. At 9-3, Baltimore now leads the Steelers and Bengals by two games, with Robert Griffin III and the red-hot Redskins awaiting.

"Enough about RG3," Joe Flacco said. "I'm the elite quarterback in this game. There's three Robert Griffins; there's only one Joe Flacco. What else is there only one of? My eyebrow.

"Ed Reed said the NFL is becoming a 'powder puff' league, a comment that's sure to draw the ire of the league office. Ed may not always think before he speaks off the field, but you can rest assured he always 'leads with his head' on it."

The Redskins downed the Giants 17-16 on Monday night, and now trail New York by a single game in the NFC East. Washington has won three straight to tighten up the East race, while the Giants have lost three of their last four.

"RG3 gives us a chance to win any game," Mike Shanahan said. "Griffin's got 'mojo,' while Daniel Snyder hates 'mo fo's.'

"RG3's No. 10 jersey overtook Peyton Manning's No. 18 as the NFL's top-selling jersey. He's putting a lot of shirts on people's backs. Turnabout is fair play, though, because he gave the shirt off our back to get him."

The Ravens are ailing on defense, and Flacco is struggling. That means it's Ray Rice time. Rice, as well as Ravens' fans, just wish that was as obvious to John Harbaugh.

Baltimore wins, 31-24.

Atlanta @ Carolina (+3½)

The Falcons intercepted Drew Brees five times in Atlanta's 23-13 Thursday night win, a surprisingly defensive battle. Atlanta has clinched the NFC South and is now gunning for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"That was a 'statement' game for us," Mike Smith said. "That's called making a 'statement' in a figurative sense; statements made in a literal sense usually occur in press conferences after playoff defeats.

"Home-field in the playoffs is a big deal to us. Of course, there's a big difference in 'playoff bye' and 'playoff bye-bye.'"

Despite 3 touchdowns from Cam Newton, the Panthers lost 27-21 in Kansas City. Carolina is now 3-9, tied for the worst record in the NFC with the Eagles.

"We've lost seven games by a combined 30 points," Newton said. "We've lost two games by a combined 51 points. What's it all mean? Its means we've lost nine games by a combined 81 points. It also means we'll be playing close attention at the 'NFL Combine' to access a high draft pick."

Back in Week 4, the Panthers went to the Georgia Dome and nearly beat the Falcons, falling 30-28. "Boy, that was a close one!" That's plenty to doom the Panthers.

Atlanta wins, 26-23.

NY Jets @ Jacksonville (+2½)

The Jets pulled out a 7-6 win over the Cardinals last week, as Greg McElroy replaced the struggling Mark Sanchez and then tossed a fourth-quarter touchdown to Jeff Cumberland.

"I felt I had no choice but to yank Sanchez," Rex Ryan said. "The 'writing was on the wall,' and it still is, because there's graffiti all over town that reads ''Elroy was here.'

"Sanchez had the lowest rating in the NFL among full-time starters. So please understand when I say 'We've seen the last of Mark Sanchez,' it doesn't necessarily mean he won't be my starter again."

The Jaguars gave up 34 points and 232 yards rushing to the Bills in Sunday's loss in Buffalo. Jacksonville is 31st in the league against the run.

"We're trying to shore up our defense," Mike Mularkey said. "We added former Eagle Jason Babin to our roster two weeks ago. He traded his Philly green for Jacksonville green. Now he's a member of the 'Teal Curtain,' which, unfortunately, ain't worth an 'S.'"

Could the Jags be beaten by an SEC team? Probably not, but an SEC quarterback sure can. Ryan flips a coin to decide a starter; McElroy wins the toss, but elects to defer to the second half. Sanchez starts the first half, McElroy finishes.

Jets win, 16-14.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-7)

The Chargers lost 20-13 to the visiting Bengals, San Diego's fourth-straight loss and seventh in their last eight. The Chargers are 4-8, yet still mathematically alive in the AFC playoff race.

"Our fans could care less about math," Philip Rivers said. "That is, unless it involves the 'subtraction' of an old coach and the 'addition' of a new one.

"Just a few years ago, we were playing the Steelers in Pittsburgh for the AFC championship. If I had it to do over, I would change some things. But, as they say, 'Heinz' sight is 20-20. Now, I'm only newsworthy when the discussion of Chargers' failures arise. Boy, what I wouldn't give to be kicked in the balls by Ndamukong Sum. It would make a great headline: 'Nuts and Bolts.'"

The Steelers may have saved their season with a 23-20 upset of the Ravens in Baltimore, led by Charlie Batch's 276 yards passing and 1 touchdown. Batch led a 61-yard drive that culminated in Shaun Suisham's 42-yard field goal as time expired.

"Batch can be my wingman any time," Ben Roethlisberger said. "It's a job that requires great responsibility, or great irresponsibility, if you ask certain females.

"But I'm ready to reclaim my spot in the lineup. Thankfully, it's not a police lineup."

Roethlisberger plays, and plays well. In fact, his only mistake comes when he mistakenly calls Rivers "Stan Humphries" when the two meet during pre-game warm-ups. Big Ben quickly corrects his mistake, and says "That's right. You can't be Stan Humphries. He's been to a Super Bowl."

Pittsburgh wins, 23-17.

Miami @ San Francisco (-10)

The 49ers lost for only the third time this year, dropping an overtime 16-13 game to the Rams. Colin Kaepernick, in his second start, was effective at times, but committed two crucial errors that led to 10 Rams points.

"Is there a quarterback controversy in San Francisco?" Alex Smith asked. "If you're looking for a straight answer, San Francisco's not the place to get it. John Harbaugh tells me one thing, then does another. The quarterback isn't the only thing that's two-faced around here."

The 5-7 Dolphins head to Candlestick Park looking for the upset over the heavily-favored 49ers.

"49er fans should be grateful," Joe Philbin said. "They have two, count 'em, two, viable starters at quarterback. They've got two signal-callers, plus one mixed signal caller."

San Francisco wins, 30-10.

Arizona @ Seattle (-10)

The Seahawks stunned the Bears 23-17 in overtime, winning on Russell Wilson's 13-yard TD pass to Sidney Rice. The Seahawks are now 7-5 and currently in position for the NFC's final wild card spot.

"That was a gutsy win," Pete Carroll said, "and a gutsy play by Rice. He was knocked cold by Major Wright. It was like 'Wright on Rice.'"

The Cards could muster only 6 points in a 7-6 loss to the Jets, despite forcing four New York turnovers. Ryan Lindley was a miserable 10-for-31 through the air, for only 72 yards.

"10-for-31 is not bad," Ken Whisenhunt said. "Especially when compared to 0-for-3, which is my record in choosing quarterbacks. But I hear there may be a Philadelphia quarterback available. Can you see Michael Vick as a Cardinal? In Arizona maybe, but not in Vatican City."

"I've named John Skelton starter for Sunday's game. 'Starter' is the only non-expletive 'name' I call my quarterbacks."

Seattle wins, 27-7.

New Orleans @ NY Giants (-5)

Drew Brees was intercepted five times in New Orleans' 23-13 loss to the Falcons last Thursday, dropping the Saints to 5-7. Brees' NFL record of 54 consecutive games with a touchdown pass came to an end.

"Our team bus was egged at the Atlanta airport," Brees said. "I personally took care of revenge, because I 'goose-egged' the Georgia Dome. Some were glad to see my record come to an end. They apparently thought it wasn't all it was cracked up to be."

The Giants are 7-6 after Monday night's 17-16 loss to the Redskins in Washington, and lead the Cowboys and Redskins by a game in the NFC East.

"Tom Coughlin's not happy with us," Eli Manning said. "Of course, when he is happy, we can't tell. The good lord gave Coach teeth for one thing, and one thing only — chewing … us out."

The G-Men respond to Coughlin's machinations, and play with machine-like precision. New York's defensive line harasses Brees, and Eli Manning throws for 4 touchdowns.

New York wins, 34-24.

Detroit @ Green Bay (-7)

Despite surrendering 210 yards rushing to Adrian Peterson, the Packers won the turnover battle, intercepting Christian Ponder twice, and won, 23-14. At 8-4, Green Bay leads the NFC North over Chicago by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker.

"Our rush defense is much akin to Peterson's knee injury," Mike McCarthy said. "It showed no signs of stopping him."

The Lions blew a 33-21 fourth quarter lead and lost 35-33 to the Colts in Detroit, and are now 4-8. Barring several pre-Christmas miracles, the Lions won't be returning to the playoffs.

"All is not lost," Matthew Stafford said. "Calvin Johnson is on pace to break Jerry Rice's record of 1,848 receiving yards in a season. So much for the 'Madden Curse.' Calvin is a lot like the Green Bay defense — he makes things look so easy. They should call Calvin the 'Madden Cruiser.' I hope the Packers like S&M, because Calvin likes to dominate."

Who will Ndamukong Suh irritate on Sunday night at Lambeau Field? It may be difficult to top Thanksgiving Day's "Malice in the Phallus," but Suh will get to someone. That's for sure, because when two defenses this bad get together, someone's bound to be "offended."

Green Bay wins, 33-31.

Houston @ New England (-4)

The Texans visit New England in a matchup of division winners. Both teams clinched last week, and now will be jockeying for playoff position.

"I'm sure the Patriots will try to disrupt our passing game," Matt Schaub said. "But I'll be ready. Thanks to Ndamukong Suh, my pocket awareness has never been better.

"Suh is still in the news. And the Lions still think our Thanksgiving Day win in Detroit was a fluke. They claim it was a 'tainted' victory, and they're right. I, of all people, know that was certainly the case."

The Patriots were less than impressive in a 23-16 win over the Dolphins in Miami, but managed their ninth win of the year and clinched the AFC East crown.

"It wasn't pretty," Tom Brady said, "but it got the job done. That's the first time I've said that since marrying a supermodel.

"This game should tell us a lot about ourselves. And it should tell us a lot about the Texans, even more that illegally-filmed footage of their practice would.

"We know the Texans want to come here and stake their claim as the AFC's best. I respect the Texans, and I have the utmost respect for Schaub. He's seen it all, and has the cleat marks on his scrotum to prove it."

Houston wins, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:52 PM | Comments (0)

Northern Illinois' Grand Opportunity

I didn't watch ESPN's bowl selection show, so I found out that Northern Illinois was going to the Orange Bowl on Facebook. "What a joke!" was the comment. I thought he must be kidding, or mistaken. Nope.

Somehow, the rule escaped me: if the champion from a non-BCS conference is ranked in the top 16 and is ranked higher than a BCS champion, they automatically get a BCS berth.

Northern Illinois barely made the criteria, finishing with a rank of No. 15 and ahead of Louisville from the awful Big East and Wisconsin, who actually earned their spot in the Big Ten championship game by finishing third in the Big Ten Leaders division behind two teams on probation.

I've been a vocal proponent of the mid-majors for years, and even I have to say, that is way too generous. Top 10, maybe. Or finish ahead of three BCS champions. But there is no-way no-how that Northern Illinois is better or more deserving than Texas A&M, Georgia, or Oklahoma going by talent.

When teams like Boise State or TCU have crashed the BCS party, the consensus has been that they deserved it, and indeed non-BCS teams have done very well in BCS bowls. This is not the case with Northern Illinois. The only decent team they beat was Kent, and it took overtime. The only BCS foes they faced were Iowa and Kansas, who finished a collective 2-15 in their conferences. They lost to Iowa and defeated Kansas by a touchdown. Both games were played in Illinois.

The problem with NIU getting a bowl bid is not simply just that other teams are better or more deserving. That happens every year, and it when it does happen, I prefer the powers that be err on the side of the little guy.

No, the problem is that NIU just might be undeserving enough to get blown away by Florida State, and set the mid-major cause back a decade. Column after column has been written excoriating NIU's inclusion in the Orange Bowl. Pundits and pressman are not prepared to give NIU a chance. The popular opinion deck is stacked against them. If they lose 52-0, such pundits will all pat themselves on the back and say, "See?"

This is a problem, because public opinion sways the kingmakers, and there will be a college-basketball-like selection committee determining who gets into the national four-team playoffs starting next year. So hypothetically, when a 13-0 Western Michigan team who comfortably beat a decent Michigan State team actually deserves to be in the conversation, the committee will say, "Bah! Remember the Northern Illinois debacle? I don't need to see my name puked all over every blog," and give the final playoff spot to a 3-loss South Carolina team.

So this is the troublesome template NIU is working under, but now that I've buried them, let me also praise them. This might be a good game. Northern Illinois crushed the MAC this year in the regular season, finishing undefeated in conference play and allowing only one, Toledo, within single digits. They played the other undefeated-in-the-MAC team in the conference championship game, and won. Their lone loss to Iowa was by a single point, on a late touchdown, in their first game of the year. They are better now.

Further, I'm not seeing much beef with Louisville being in a BCS game, nor Wisconsin, who will play in a Rose Bowl featuring two teams with seven losses between them.

The rules got Wisconsin and Louisville in their bowls, and the rules got Northern Illinois in theirs. I think the complex BCS formula probably has it "correct" in having NIU ahead of Louisville and Wisconsin.

So here's the deal, Northern Illinois. You got this opportunity, and now, you have to make the very most of it. I know you all give it 110% in every game, but in this one it's gotta be 120%. Each of you players must play the game of your life. No turnovers, no stupid penalties, no stupid mistakes. Play smart and clear-eyed. Force Florida State into lots of turnovers, stupid penalties and stupid mistakes. Stranger things have happened, and Florida State is hardly invincible.

Sorry for the hyperbole, but so, so much is riding on this game. More than just for Northern Illinois University, or the MAC (and I have a vested interest here as an Akron fan), but for the entire college football landscape. As I've written before, with streamlined conditioning techniques and coaching prior to college, the gap of talent superiority between a major program and a mid-major gets thinner ever year. Perceptions, meanwhile, change much more slowly. And that is why, Northern Illinois, as Dumbledore told Harry Potter, you must not fail. You must not fail.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:59 PM | Comments (2)

December 5, 2012

Experiencing an Early Code Blue

It's not uncommon for basketball teams that are highly ranked in the preseason to struggle. It's basically an annual rite of passage for some program whose team is in the top 25 before the season starts to fall into the abyss of the unranked. However, entering this week, we haven't seen anything like this.

Since the Associated Press basketball poll expanded to 25 teams back in 1990, only once had a top-10 team fallen out of favor with the voters in one week. Well, actually, now it's twice. And this stunner comes just one week after another highly touted team went from having a number less than 15 next to their name to having no number near it a week later.

The big shocker is that one Monday after the 11th-rated team in the poll disappeared from view, the 8th-best team in the country (according to the poll) did the exact same thing. The even bigger shock were the two schools associated with this vanishing — UCLA and Kentucky.

The fact that any team could fall so far so fast in amazing (a fall rivaled by the Missouri Tigers less than two years ago). But these aren't just any programs. These are two of the five most important programs in the history of the sport, a.k.a. a couple of the professed "bluebloods" of college basketball.

Court royalty rarely has an elongated streak of mediocrity. It's even rarer for two such powerhouses to be struck by "upset lightning." But what does this mean going forward for each team?

As far as Kentucky's concerned, I'm not worried about them. John Calipari has become the master of the one-and-done format. No person can turn over a roster with more gusto and more success than this guy. Last year's squad was very young. But alongside the phenoms Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Marquis Teague were two sophomores (Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb) and a senior (Darius Miller), providing the guiding force for the squad.

This time around, the incoming class was basically as talented (led by Nerlens Noel and Alex Poythress), but the incoming class is the team. The only player with substantial minutes from last season's Wildcats is sophomore Kyle Wiltjer. This will take a little time for all the new Kittens to grow.

The problem with Kentucky was all about timing. They lost to Duke in Atlanta. Fine enough. Then, last week, they got thumped at Notre Dame. The Irish are tough, physical, and usually experienced. Mike Brey's team isn't on the radar so far this year (well, they weren't until last week). The loss against Baylor would be a bit more acceptable ... if it weren't in Lexington. The defeat was the first for the Cats at Rupp Arena since March 9th, 2009 (with 55 wins in between). These factors combined to make an infamous bit of history for the program.

But Calipari will figure something out to keep this team at the top of the SEC, get them into the NCAAs, and, very likely, make a deep run in March. Remember the early questions we had about the eventual national champions? Those are far more distant than the memories of their tourney run.

The blueblood that looks to be in more trouble resides in Westwood. Ben Howland continues to feel the heat the rabid Bruin fanbase. It might be warranted after the coach led his UCLA teams to three consecutive Final Fours. But in the four-plus seasons since, the shine has slowly dulled on the revered program. Even with two tournament appearances in the last four years, cracked have shown up in the foundation.

From key transfers to off-court issues, Howland's California dreams have turned to occasional nightmares. 2012 was supposed to be a fresh start, though. With highly-touted recruit Shabazz Muhammad leading a studded recruiting class, the Bruins were supposed to make instant inroads to the top of the Pac-12.

Those roads have been a bit bumpy from the outset. After a thorough beatdown of Indiana State, the Bruins got all they could handle from in-state "little brother" UC-Irvine. UCLA's one-point win was a win, but it also was a sign of turbulence to come. A close loss to Georgetown two games later could have been predicted. You know, get the kinks out.

However, the kinks stayed close as the Bruins couldn't shake a Georgia squad that's had multiple struggles of their own (to the tune of a 2-6 record after Tuesday's loss to Georgia Tech). Then boom went the dynamite.

After holding an 18-point lead with 12 minutes left in the game, at home, UCLA did the unthinkable. They allowed Cal-Poly to not only shed some of the deficit. They let the Mustangs complete the rally and escape with a 70-68 victory on their own home court. I honestly don't know if Pauley Pavilion has hosted such a stunner inside its historical (yet renovated) walls.

A loss like this one could strengthen a team's resolve, as might have been the case with the Bruins thumping Cal-State Northridge three days after the shocker. It could also stunt their growth, which may have happened last Saturday as UCLA fell to southern neighbor San Diego State. The team will have more chances to show their mettle, with Texas and Missouri coming up before the conference season gets going.

But the Bruins have been put on notice. This may be the year that is scrutinized more than any other in Howland's tenure over the program. And if the upper brass isn't impressed, it might be the players' last chance to be led on the court by their current coach.

Blood can easily boil over and lead to change based on a matter of days. Even when that blood is historical. Even when it's blue.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 12:36 PM | Comments (0)

Sports Central 2012 Pro Bowl Ballot

Pro Bowl voting has been open for over a month, but now every team has played most of its schedule, so it's finally reasonable to vote for each conference's representatives. Here's a look at my ballot, with AFC players listed first. If you'd like to vote along as you read, you can do so here.

Quarterback

Tom Brady (NE), Peyton Manning (DEN), Matt Schaub (HOU); Aaron Rodgers (GB), Robert Griffin III (WAS), Matt Ryan (ATL)

The AFC looked like a cinch three weeks ago. Ben Roethlisberger's (PIT) injury situation opens the door for others, all questionably qualified. I chose Schaub based on efficiency and leadership. The Texans are 11-1, in no small part because Schaub has adapted his style to help them win. Schaub has more yards and a higher passer rating than Andy Dalton (CIN), who looks like the real deal but might still be a year or two away.

The NFC is full of strong contenders. Most notably, my ballot omits Drew Brees (NO) and Josh Freeman (TB). Matthew Stafford (DET) has a ton of yardage, but mostly because he throws a lot and plays with Calvin Johnson. Freeman has been very good, but with the level of QB play in the NFC this season, you need to be great. Brees and Andrew Luck (IND) are tied for the most interceptions in the league. Great QBs don't lead the league in interceptions. Brees is having an off-year, and Luck's still a rookie. There's every reason to expect they'll both play at Pro Bowl level in 2013.

Running Back

Arian Foster (HOU), Ray Rice (BAL), C.J. Spiller (BUF); Adrian Peterson (MIN), Doug Martin (TB), Marshawn Lynch (SEA)

Most of the choices here are pretty obvious. It's become fashionable for stat nerds to bash Foster, but he leads the AFC in rushing, leads the NFL in touchdowns, and has been the driving force for the best team in the league. Does he look as explosive as he did in 2010 and 2011? No, but that's a Hall of Fame standard you're holding him to.

I understand votes for Jamaal Charles (KC), Stevan Ridley (NE), and Chris Johnson (TEN). Charles and Ridley have excelled despite splitting time, and Johnson has been on fire recently, poised for a strong close to the season. But Spiller combines both of those points in his favor, and he's averaging 6.6 yards per carry. I'm sure that won't hold up, but it's still very impressive. Spiller is also an asset in the receiving game, one of only four players with 600 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards — Rice, Spiller, Martin, and Trent Richardson (CLE).

In the NFC, Frank Gore (SF) is having another fine season, and I would have liked to fit him onto the ballot, but not against this competition. I've only picked Gore once (2006), and that doesn't seem right for such an accomplished player, but I'm not into make-up calls. Lynch has out-rushed him by 166 yards, with a weaker offensive line. Alfred Morris (WAS) is having a nice rookie season, but Lynch is more valuable in the passing game, and he doesn't have RG3 to open up running lanes for him.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Green (CIN), Reggie Wayne (IND), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), Wes Welker (NE); Calvin Johnson (DET), Brandon Marshall (CHI), Roddy White (ATL), Vincent Jackson (TB)

There are always tough calls at this position. How do you leave off Andre Johnson (HOU) after what he's done the last month? How do you include him after what he did in the first nine games? If you prefer Johnson to Thomas or Welker, that's perfectly reasonable, but Thomas has been Peyton Manning's go-to, and Welker is on pace for 123 receptions. Thomas has 3 fumbles, but he's also got almost three times as many TDs as Johnson, and he's a deep threat (16.1 yds/rec) who creates opportunities underneath for his teammates.

In the NFC, I was all set to vote for Percy Harvin (MIN), but he's missed too much time. Dez Bryant (DAL) has been on fire recently, but both he and Jackson have been up-and-down. I like what V-Jax has done to open up Tampa Bay's offense, facilitating big seasons for QB Josh Freeman and RB Doug Martin.

Fullback

Vonta Leach (BAL); Bruce Miller (SF)

This position is so hard to vote for, because most of these guys get very limited playing time. Even Leach has been on the field less often this season, and I almost went with James Casey (HOU), a converted tight end. Casey is a respectable blocker and a good receiver who plays most of Houston's offensive snaps. Marcel Reece (OAK) stepped up to fill the Raiders' injury void at RB, but he hasn't been an impact player at FB.

Frank Gore is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and Miller deserves some of the credit for that. Darrel Young (WAS) has helped rookies Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris excel at the pro level. I'd take Miller and Young over anyone in the AFC right now. Please note that Brit Miller of the Rams is not the same person as Bruce Miller of the Niners.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski (NE), Heath Miller (PIT); Jason Witten (DAL), Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

Gronkowski's broken forearm will probably keep him out for the rest of the regular season, but he's so easily the best tight end in the league that it shouldn't matter. Even after two weeks out of action, he's still tied for most receiving TDs in the league, including WRs. I'd rather have 10 games of Gronk than settle for Brandon Myers (OAK) or Owen Daniels (HOU). Those guys are having nice years, but a lot Myers' production has come in garbage time, and neither of them blocks like Gronk and Miller.

Jimmy Graham's (NO) numbers are down, and he doesn't block at all. Witten and Gonzalez both have more catches and more yards than Graham, and frankly they're pretty easy choices this year.

Offensive Tackle

Duane Brown (HOU), Andrew Whitworth (CIN), Ryan Clady (DEN); Joe Staley (SF), Donald Penn (TB), Trent Williams (WAS)

Brown is the best, easily, and he's getting better as the season goes on. Against the Lions on Thanksgiving, he routinely drove defenders five yards off the line. Williams, healthy at last (mostly), has provided a huge boost for Washington's offense. A good left tackle may not be a young quarterback's best friend, but he's certainly close. I will freely admit that there's more guesswork at the offensive line positions than I'm comfortable with. Some of these guys I've only seen once, and it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about offensive linemen from stats. I'd particularly like more looks at Michael Roos (TEN), Joe Thomas (CLE), and both Atlanta tackles. Roos is weirdly inconsistent, down some weeks and way up in others. If you insist on including right tackles, you might vote for Sebastian Vollmer (NE) instead of Clady and Tyson Clabo (ATL) in place of Williams.

Offensive Guard

Andy Levitre (BUF), Dan Connolly (NE), Marshal Yanda (BAL); Mike Iupati (SF), Ben Grubbs (NO), Kevin Boothe (NYG)

I hear all the time how good Yanda is. I've watched a lot of Baltimore games, and I don't see it. But there's no third candidate I'm crazy about, so I give up. Maybe I'm missing something. I wish I got to see more Cincinnati games; Clint Boling (CIN) interests me. Grubbs will be an unpopular choice over his teammate Jahri Evans (NO), but Evans hasn't played at the same level he did the last three seasons. Right guard in the NFC: Josh Sitton (GB) or Harvey Dahl (STL).

Center

Chris Myers (HOU), Mike Pouncey (MIA); Will Montgomery (WAS), John Sullivan (MIN)

Dan Koppen (DEN) can't do some of the things he used to, but the improved play of Denver's offensive line isn't just because of Peyton Manning, and Manning hasn't taken the fewest hits in the NFL just because he has a quick release. I'm not sure he edges Myers and Pouncey, though. It's hard to evaluate Nick Mangold (NYJ) with such limited talent around him on the Jets' offense.

Former first-round draft pick Trent Williams has gotten more publicity, but Montgomery is probably Washington's best offensive lineman. Sullivan edges a pair of vets I've chosen before, Jonathan Goodwin (SF) and Jeff Saturday (GB). The Packer running game is most successful when it goes up the middle. Todd McClure (ATL) seems to be slowing down as the season continues.

Defensive End

J.J. Watt (HOU), Elvis Dumervil (DEN), Cameron Wake (MIA); Calais Campbell (ARI), Jared Allen (MIN), Chris Clemons (SEA)

The NFC lists only 25 players at this position, most of them 4-3 DEs. After Campbell, there are no obvious choices. Instead of Allen and Clemons, you could easily go with John Abraham (ATL), Greg Hardy (CAR), Charles Johnson (CAR), Julius Peppers (CHI), or Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG). I like Hardy a little better than Johnson, but that seems to be a minority opinion.

I'm not crazy about Wake, and I feel like a sellout for going with so many pass rushers. I couldn't quite talk myself into Corey Liuget (SD) or Brett Keisel (PIT). I also considered Rob Ninkovich (NE), though he's a pass rush guy, too. Wake has more sacks (10.5), but Ninkovich has 6 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 4 recoveries, and a batted pass. J.J. Watt is probably the most obvious selection at any position on the ballot. He leads the AFC in sacks, and he's re-defining what defensive linemen can do with his 15 pass deflections at the line. Dumervil leads the AFC in forced fumbles (6).

Defensive Tackle

Geno Atkins (CIN), Vince Wilfork (NE), Randy Starks (MIA); Justin Smith (SF), Henry Melton (CHI), Gerald McCoy (TB)

Atkins, who has outrageous stats for a DT (9.5 sacks, 3 FF), is finally starting to generate mention as one of the finest defensive linemen in the league. Wilfork's game is a little up-and-down, but when he's up (like the Thanksgiving carving of the Jets), he's incredible. He has 4 fumble recoveries and 5 pass deflections. Starks edges Kyle Williams (BUF) and Haloti Ngata (BAL) on my ballot. Ngata started the season strong, but he's been invisible the last couple of months. I also like rookie DT Dontari Poe (KC).

This is Justin Smith's 12th season, but he's still only 33. Melton looks to me like the impact player on the Bears' line this season, even ahead of Julius Peppers. McCoy was a close call over Jonathan Babineaux (ATL), Stephen Bowen (WAS), Darnell Dockett (ARI), and Ndamukong Suh (DET). Babineaux has 3.5 sacks and 3 PDs, and Bowen is particularly sound against the run. Dockett has a career-high 4 pass deflections — J.J. Watt notwithstanding, that's a lot for a lineman — and Suh is the dirtiest player in the league. When he's on, though, Suh causes real problems for opposing offenses. His Thanksgiving performance was overshadowed by the apparent kick to Matt Schaub's crotch, but he was hugely disruptive in that game.

Inside Linebacker

Jerod Mayo (NE), Derrick Johnson (KC); Daryl Washington (ARI), NaVorro Bowman (SF)

Washington is the cinch here. He's tied for 2nd in the NFC in solo tackles (87), plus he has ... wait for it ... 9 sacks. That's unheard of for an inside linebacker. Washington also has 2 forced fumbles, 2 pass deflections, and an interception. Wow. I like Bowman a little better than his teammate Patrick Willis (SF). You could vote for Luke Kuechly (CAR) or James Laurinaitis (STL) and that wouldn't be crazy. Laurinaitis leads the NFL in solo tackles (95).

No one stands out in the AFC. The Texans' Brian Cushing would have been a lock, maybe a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, if he hadn't been cheap-shotted and injured against the Jets. Mayo has 4 forced fumbles, 3 sacks, 2 pass deflections, and a partridge in a pear tree fumble recovery. Johnson leads the AFC in solo tackles (86). However, there are a number of other directions you could go at this position. Paul Posluszny (JAC) has 74 solo tackles, 7 PDs, and 3 INTs. Karlos Dansby (MIA) has 71 solo tackles and 8 PDs. D'Qwell Jackson (CLE) makes big plays: he's got 5 pass deflections and 2 picks, one of them returned for a touchdown, plus 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 recoveries. Dannell Ellerbe (BAL) could be the next defensive star for the Ravens.

Outside Linebacker

Von Miller (DEN), Justin Houston (KC), Wesley Woodyard (DEN); Aldon Smith (SF), Clay Matthews III (GB), Lance Briggs (CHI)

Outside linebackers are so tough to compare, because there really are two distinct positions: pass rushers and space players. I've mostly selected pass rushers, because the best of them are true game-changers, impact players in a way the others usually aren't. The exceptions are Woodyard and Briggs. Woodyard leads the Broncos in tackles (62 solo), with 5 PDs, 4 sacks, and 3 INTs. Briggs ranks 3rd in the NFL in INT return yardage (110), with 2 TDs.

Miller is a DPOY candidate, while Houston has 10 sacks, 4 pass deflections, and an interception. Besides these three, there's really no one in the AFC who interests me. Shaun Phillips (SD) would probably be my fourth choice. Paul Kruger (BAL) might be fifth, but he's not on the ballot.

Aldon Smith leads the NFL in sacks (17.5), but it seems like his teammate Ahmad Brooks (SF) makes just as many big plays. DeMarcus Ware (DAL) is having a down year by his standards, but he's always a threat to opposing offenses. Chad Greenway (MIN) has 77 solo tackles and 2 sacks, plus he's good in pass coverage. Clay Matthews has missed a couple games with injuries, and the Packers aren't the same team without him. He might be the best defensive player in the NFC.

Cornerback

Ike Taylor (PIT), Antonio Cromartie (NYJ), Johnathon Joseph (HOU); Charles Tillman (CHI), Tim Jennings (CHI), Cortland Finnegan (STL)

Jennings is not a great player, but he's having a great season, including a league-leading 8 INTs and 19 other PDs. Tillman has set the tone for Chicago's potent defense, leading the team in tackles and forcing 8 fumbles.

Injuries have complicated the AFC ballot. Joseph has missed the last two games, and Ike T. has a broken ankle. Their cross-field counterparts, Kareem Jackson (HOU) and Keenan Lewis (PIT), have both made some nice plays. Jackson has 4 INTs, including a TD return, and Lewis actually leads the NFL in passes defensed (19, tied with Jennings).

Strong Safety

Mike Adams (DEN); Kam Chancellor (SEA)

Bernard Pollard (BAL) probably has the best stats, but he's developed a nasty streak — in a bad way. Several other AFC strong safeties are also having good seasons, including Yeremiah Bell (NYJ), Eric Berry (KC), Glover Quin (HOU), and George Wilson (BUF). Adams has 8 passes defensed, which leads all strong safeties, plus 2 FF, 2 FR, and a sack for a safety.

Chancellor is good enough that even people on the East Coast recognize him as one of the game's best young DBs. Roman Harper (NO) is having an unusually good year in pass coverage (10 PD, 2 INT). Adrian Wilson (ARI) isn't the player he was five years ago, but he's still not to be trifled with. I also like Donte Whitner (SF) and Major Wright (CHI), the latter mostly because he has a cool name.

Free Safety

Jairus Byrd (BUF); Thomas DeCoud (ATL)

Byrd, who made a splash as a rookie in 2009, is having another big year: 5 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR. He gets my vote over a strong field including Ryan Clark (PIT), Reshad Jones (MIA), Danieal Manning (HOU), Ed Reed (BAL), and Eric Weddle (SD). Clark has 60 solo tackles and 7 PDs. Weddle has 58 solo tackles and 7 PDs, with 3 picks and a touchdown. Reed has 4 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries.

DeCoud has 47 solo tackles, 5 INTs, a sack, and a fumble recovery. He's been a playmaker in Atlanta's secondary. Dashon Goldson (SF) is having another fine season, including 3 INTs, and Ronde Barber (TB) has had some nice moments, with 160 INT return yards. Quintin Mikell (STL) and Earl Thomas (SEA) are also having good years. My favorites in the NFC so far are DeCoud and Goldson.

Kicker

Phil Dawson (CLE); Blair Walsh (MIN)

Dawson had a kick blocked in Week 13, and it was his first miss of the season. He's 5/5 from 50 yards and beyond. The NFC is a tougher call. Alex Henery (PHI) hasn't missed since Week 1, but his longest attempt all season is 49 yards. In today's NFL, you expect a kicker to make some 50-yarders. Greg Zuerlein (STL) is hitting 50-yarders — seven of them, including a 60-yard FG in Week 4. But Zuerlein has six misses, including two under 40 yards. David Akers (SF) hit a record-tying 63-yard field goal in Week 1, but his nine missed FGs are tied for most in the NFL.

Matt Bryant (ATL) and Lawrence Tynes (NYG) are having great fantasy football seasons, but Bryant has missed too many short kicks and Tynes struggles beyond 40 yards. Jason Hanson (DET) is still getting it done, and Connor Barth (TB) has six successful 50-yard FGs, but ultimately I went with Walsh over Dan Bailey (DAL). Bailey has only two missed kicks, both from beyond 50 yards. Walsh is 5/5 on 50+ FGs and one of his three misses was blocked. Not bad for a rookie.

Punter

Dustin Colquitt (KC); Thomas Morstead (NO)

Tough calls this year, with lots of punters having nice seasons. Colquitt narrowly edged brother Britton Colquitt (DEN), Kevin Huber (CIN), and Brett Kern (TEN). Britton leads the AFC in net average (42.9) and lowest return average (4.8), though Denver is a great home for kickers and punters. Kern's statistics are nearly as good, but in a much tougher kicking environment. Dustin Colquitt got the nod because he leads the NFL in punts down inside the 20 (33), with only 5 touchbacks, and because he's been good for years but I've never chosen him.

I chose Morstead purely because of his 44.8 net average, the best in the league, and the best in history if he keeps it up. Andy Lee is 2nd in the NFC in net average (42.3), and he's having a nice year around the goal line (30 I-20, 3 TB). Jon Ryan (SEA), Tim Masthay (GB), and Brian Moorman (DAL) were my other finalists. Masthay leads the NFL in fair catches (23), and Moorman doesn't have a touchback all season.

Kick Returner

Leodis McKelvin (BUF); Randall Cobb (GB)

All the good returners are in the AFC. That conference accounts for 8/10 kickoff return TDs and 9/13 punt return TDs, and all five players with multiple returning TDs. Those five are Jacoby Jones (BAL), Marcus Thigpen (MIA), Trindon Holliday (DEN), Joe McKnight (NYJ), and McKelvin, who averages 28.3 on kickoffs and is having one of the all-time punt returning seasons, with 387 yards, a 20.4 PR average, and 2 TDs. In the NFC, Percy Harvin (MIN) was impressive before his injury, but he has 16 KRs and no punt returns. Cobb has over 1,000 return yards, with good averages and a touchdown.

Special Teamer

Darrell Stuckey (SD); John Wendling (DET)

As always, many of my favorite special teamers don't appear on the ballot. It's frustrating.

The team I voted for most this season was the Broncos (7), followed by the 49ers, Patriots, and Texans (6 each). On the 2011 Pro Bowl ballot, my leading teams were the Texans (7), Bears, Patriots, and Ravens (6 apiece).

2012 Midseason Awards

Offensive Player of the Year — Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Defensive Player of the Year — J.J. Watt (HOU)
MVP — Tom Brady (NE)
Coach of the Year — John Fox (DEN)
Assistant — Kyle Shanahan (WAS)
Rookie of the Year — Robert Griffin III (WAS)

Posted by Brad Oremland at 10:41 AM | Comments (1)

December 4, 2012

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Joe Posnanski is my favorite sportswriter. But whenever he writes about football, he's just ridiculous, not to be taken seriously.

* The Hall of Fame has announced this year's semifinalists, a good group. My preferences (not predictions) to advance: Larry Allen, Morten Andersen, Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Don Coryell, Terrell Davis, Kevin Greene, Joe Jacoby, Albert Lewis, Jonathan Ogden, Will Shields, Michael Strahan, Paul Tagliabue, Aeneas Williams, George Young.

* In the last 2:30 of the first half in Monday night's game, ESPN took 7 commercial breaks. That's a slap in the face to viewers.

* More proof that Greg Gumbel thinks it's still 1985: mentioning rain in the weather forecast, Gumbel chortled, "And for a change, those forecasts were right!" Weather forecasts today are very accurate, and mocking weather forecasters is about as original as complaining about airline food. Hilarious, Gumbel.

* Last night, Washington got its first Monday night home win against the Giants since November 18, 1985. Also known as the game in which Lawrence Taylor ended Joe Theismann's career.

***

Question conventional wisdom. Following a Reggie Bush carry up the middle this weekend, Dan Dierdorf told viewers that between-the-tackles running backs are normally "at minimum, 220 [pounds]."

LaDainian Tomlinson was listed at 215 pounds. Emmitt Smith played most of his career between 205-210. Curtis Martin weighed 210. So did Terrell Davis. Priest Holmes played at 213. Adrian Peterson is listed at 217, Marshawn Lynch at 215, Maurice Jones-Drew at 210. Frank Gore's at 217. I'm sure much of the audience assumed Dierdorf was right, but the majority of successful between-the-tackles RBs weigh less than 220 lbs.

I'll also use this space to complain about the NFL's television package, the cornerstone of which is disrespect for fans. Because of rules that make no one happy, one of the networks cut away from the most exciting game of the day (Colts/Lions) to show pre-game fluff and a snore-inducing, non-scoring drive in Baltimore. That was a big game, but I don't live in Baltimore or Pittsburgh, and like most viewers, I didn't care nearly as much about the first 5:00 of that game as the last 5:00 of the other one. Certainly, I didn't need to catch Jim Nance and Phil Simms talking about a game that hadn't even started yet.

I actually got so disgusted I flipped to FOX and watched the UFC on FOX 5 edition of Road to the Octagon. Shogun Rua's wife is hot. As always, brackets show last week's rank.

1. Denver Broncos [2] — Clinched the AFC West. The 9-3 Broncos have won as many games as the rest of the division combined (9-27). Peyton Manning threw 3 TD passes, bringing his season total to 29 and breaking the single-season franchise record. It's stunning, in today's passing environment, to remember that John Elway never threw 30 TDs in a season.

2. New England Patriots [3] — Wes Welker caught 10 or more passes for the 17th time in his career, tying Jerry Rice for the all-time record. New England has an outside chance at the single-season scoring record. The 2007 Patriots scored 589 points (36.8 per game). This year's Pats have scored 430 (35.8/gm). The 1950 Rams averaged 38.8 ppg, but in a 12-game season.

3. Houston Texans [4] — Cornerback Johnathan Joseph sat out again this week, and against the Titans, it wasn't a big deal. But next week in New England, they're going to need him. Against Tennessee, the Texans were charged with 11 penalties for 97 yards and 3 first downs, and it wasn't a problem. In Week 14, they'll have to be more disciplined. That's a big game, and a potential playoff preview. The Patriots are favored by 4.

4. San Francisco 49ers [1] — I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that the Rams give them problems other teams don't. Since the bye, San Francisco has pounded the Bears, beaten the Saints by double-digits, and gone 0-1-1 vs. St. Louis. Colin Kaepernik took a safety this week, but he also rushed for 84 yards. Frank Gore (58 yds, 2.5 avg) had more trouble.

5. Atlanta Falcons [6] — In Week 11, they were -5 in turnovers but beat the Cardinals. In Week 13, they were +5 in turnovers but got a win that was too close for comfort. How does a great team go +5 in turnovers and only score 23 points? It doesn't. The Falcons went 1/13 on third downs and were bailed out by sound defense — especially from the line — and Saints' mistakes. The 10-point win on Thursday was their largest margin of victory since October. Atlanta has clinched the NFC South.

6. Green Bay Packers [8] — Dominated time of possession against Minnesota (38:30), overcoming poor tackling and an apparent fear of Adrian Peterson by combining tight pass defense with Christian Ponder's inability to play quarterback at the NFL level. In Week 14, Green Bay hosts the Lions. The Packers have won 20 straight at home against Detroit. The last time the Lions won in Green Bay, Detroit QB Erik Kramer outplayed the Packers' Mike Tomczak, and Mel Gray's fourth quarter punt return TD proved to be the difference (box score at Pro Football Reference).

7. Cincinnati Bengals [10] — Rank in the top half of the league in points and points allowed, as well as yards and yards allowed. They're above average in rushing yards and rushing yards allowed. Also passing yards, and passing yards allowed. They've won four in a row, three of them blowouts.

8. Chicago Bears [5] — Lost three of their last four, and they're just 1-4 against teams with winning records (they beat the Colts in Week 1). Three of their four remaining games are on the road, and the other is against Green Bay. Even though most of their key players were in the lineup this week, health is a question going forward. This is their third straight year losing to Seattle at home.

9. Baltimore Ravens [7] — Ranked one spot ahead of a team that just beat them, in Baltimore, but the Ravens have won four of their last five and beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh two weeks ago. All the teams between 5-10 have flaws that make me nervous. Terrell Suggs tore his biceps this week. It's uncertain whether or not he'll return this season, but he certainly won't be on the field in Week 14.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers [14] — At the end of the first half, Charlie Batch overthrew a wide open Mike Wallace in the end zone, and Pittsburgh settled for a field goal. But Batch completed his last 8 passes in a row and the Steelers won a critical game on the road. Troy Polamalu finally returned to action, but standout cornerback Ike Taylor injured his ankle and reportedly will miss 2-6 weeks. Ben Roethlisberger's availability remains a question.

11. New Orleans Saints [9] — Played their best defensive game of the season, but scored a season-low 13 points. Drew Brees threw 5 INTs and had a 6th negated by penalty. Obviously, having the bus egged made the difference.

12. Seattle Seahawks [13] — Huge win in Chicago, despite an overturned TD by Braylon Edwards that looked good on replay. Someone has got to tell Mike Carey and Jeff Triplette about that "indisputable visual evidence" idea. Sidney Rice got knocked out as he crossed the goal line with the game-winning TD, but he apparently passed his concussion tests and will play in Week 14. It also appears likely that starting CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner will play against Arizona. Both players were suspended after testing positive for Adderall, but their cases are under appeal.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [11] — Two straight losses, both to teams that have already clinched division titles, and both by less than 10. Before that, they'd won four in a row. I suspect they'll get back on track next week, when they host the 3-9 Eagles.

14. Washington Redskins [15] — Huge vulnerabilities on pass defense — the almost complete lack of pass rush is troubling — but how can you not get excited about this offense? For years, we've been hearing that NFL teams can't win with the option. It turns out you can do just fine with the option if you have a QB who can throw. Mike Shanahan may have a tough time keeping his son Kyle on staff next season. As Washington's offensive coordinator, the younger Shanahan has designed a brilliant offense around his rookie QB. Following his success in the same position with Houston, it's hard to imagine Kyle won't get some head coaching offers in the near future.

Earlier this year, I wrote that Ben Roethlisberger's rookie record for passer rating (98.1) might last for a very long time. By "a very long time," I meant 10 months. Robert Griffin III is at 104.4, and Seattle's Russell Wilson at 95.2.

15. New York Giants [12] — Eli Manning made some dynamite throws on Monday night, but the Giants committed too many penalties (9 for 73 yards) and settled for too many field goals. In the first half, the Giants converted 80% of their third downs and had three 10-play drives, but went into the locker room with just 13 points to show for it. Holding Washington's explosive offense to 17 is not bad; this loss falls on the offense and special teams, the latter for penalties and a missed field goal.

16. Indianapolis Colts [17] — Only rookie QBs to pass for over 350 yards in a win: Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, and Brandon Weeden. Luck obviously has a lot of promise, but he also tossed 3 picks this week, and I remain skeptical that he's already an above-average QB. Two sets of stats:

If you count rushing touchdowns and lost fumbles, QB-A has 22 TDs and 21 turnovers, compared to 21 TDs and 17 turnovers for QB-B. No one disputes that Luck is playing better than most rookie QBs, or that he's an upgrade over Curtis Painter and Kerry Collins. But this season, I'm not sure I'd take Luck over Carson Palmer (QB-B), much less Peyton Manning or RG3.

17. Dallas Cowboys [18] — Tony Romo, the thinking man's choker, led them to a 21-point fourth quarter and a comeback victory. This season, Romo has fared dramatically better in the second half:

His TD/INT differential goes from -5 to +9. Another way to look at it: in the first half, Romo is Ryan Tannehill. In the second half, he's Aaron Rodgers. Dallas has won three of its last four.

18. St. Louis Rams [25] — Greg Zuerlein had struggled a bit since the hot start that earned him nicknames like Legatron and Greg the Leg, but he was money on Sunday. Zuerlein hit a game-tying 53-yard field goal as time expired — no pressure — and then nailed a 54-yard game-winner with :26 left in overtime. Zuerlein leads the NFL in both field goals and field goal attempts of 50 yards or more (he's 7/11). The Rams rank 30th in offensive TDs (18).

19. Detroit Lions [16] — Lost three straight home games, but against opponents with a combined record of 27-9. All of those opponents are at least 8-4, and all the losses were by 4 or less. That doesn't lead me to believe this is a bad team.

20. Cleveland Browns [19] — Committed only 2 penalties, compared to 10 for Oakland. Up 13-10 in the fourth quarter, Cleveland sealed the game with a 14-play, 6-minute, 94-yard touchdown drive. Sheldon Brown had 4 passes defensed, including a red zone interception that set up the game-winning drive.

21. Buffalo Bills [27] — Three of their last four games are at home (including Week 15 in Toronto), and three are against teams with losing records. If they finish 3-1, that would mean an 8-8 record, the team's best since 2004, and it could earn Chan Gailey a fourth season.

22. New York Jets [28] — Mark Sanchez, first 10 passes:

1. Interception
2. 5 yards
3. 24 yards
4. Incomplete
5. 6 yards
6. 12 yards
7. 19 yards
8. Interception
9. Interception
10. Incomplete

There was also a sack in there. How did it take until the last drive of the third quarter to get Greg McElroy in the game? Game-winning touchdown notwithstanding, McElroy didn't look like anything special, but there's got to at least be a willingness to bench a player who won't stop turning the ball over. This is probably too high a rankings jump after a 7-6 home win against an opponent who's lost 8 straight, but I'm encouraged that the coaching staff may tie playing time to performance. When a QB is struggling like Sanchez did on Sunday, you get him out of there. I don't really care who starts next week (Tebow!), but you can't unconditionally commit to a player, especially when he kind of sucks.

23. Minnesota Vikings [22] — Since 1990, teams are 74-3 when they have a 200-yard rusher. That's how bad the Vikings' passing game is. The 2002 Dolphins (Ricky Williams) and '09 Jets (Thomas Jones) were the other underachievers. The Vikings, 5-1 at home, fell to 1-5 on the road.

24. San Diego Chargers [20] — Another last-minute loss. In Week 9, they pounded the Chiefs, 31-13. Since then, they're 0-4, but against a brutal schedule: at Buccaneers, at Broncos, Ravens, Bengals. Those teams are a combined 32-16. All the losses were by 10 or less. This is not a good team, but it's pretty good for a group that hasn't beaten anyone but the Chiefs since Week 2.

25. Carolina Panthers [21] — Ranked right behind San Diego. In a scheduling quirk, the Panthers played Tampa Bay in Week 10 and Denver in Week 11, while the Chargers faced Denver in Week 10 and Tampa in Week 11. The Panthers played both games at home and lost both, by a combined total of 28. The Chargers played both games on the road and lost by a total of 17. Thus, San Diego rates ahead. Other recent games don't offer much evidence either way.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars [23] — The continued production of Cecil Shorts in their useless offense is pretty amazing.

27. Miami Dolphins [24] — Second home game in a row. The official attendance for their game against the Seahawks was 51,295. Attendance for the Patriots was 72,114. Jake Long left this week's game with a triceps injury.

28. Tennessee Titans [26] — Swept by the Texans, and fell to 0-4 in the AFC South. They have never gone winless in the division since its creation in 2002.

29. Kansas City Chiefs [32] — First game this season with more touchdowns than turnovers. You all know about the Jovan Belcher tragedy. I credit the Chiefs organization for treating the incident as domestic violence and using the occasion to raise awareness of a problem that affects thousands of households in this country. Football fans everywhere wish the best to both families and to a little girl who will never know her parents.

30. Arizona Cardinals [29] — I know the offensive line is a mess, but there's just no way an NFL QB should go 10/31. Ryan Lindley gained 56 net yards on 33 dropbacks, and he threw an interception.

31. Philadelphia Eagles [30] — NBC pointed out that MLB's Phillies have won more recently than the Eagles, whose last victory came in September. Speaking of NBC, though, could someone tell them that the 1982 and 1987 seasons were strike-shortened? The Cowboys' DeMarcus Ware has already compiled a Hall of Fame résumé, but you can't compare his stats to Lawrence Taylor's without considering that Ware gets an extra 11 games because of the strikes.

32. Oakland Raiders [31] — Carson Palmer by quarter:

NFL.com also offers a stat line, "4th Quarter within 7," which allows us to look at clutch play versus garbage time:

People always talk about how Eli Manning is this great clutch quarterback, based on his fourth quarter stats. Eli's had some great moments, to be sure, but it's easy to put up big numbers at the end of a blowout. Here's Palmer in the last two minutes of each half:

Clutch!

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:27 PM | Comments (0)

December 3, 2012

Instant Reaction: The 2012-13 Bowl Season

It's 35 games and three and a half weeks of pure football feasting.

Yep, another December and bowl season has fallen upon us. And as the matchups are now official, here's a rundown of initial thoughts as we head into the final stretch of the 2012 college football season.

The Five Most Intriguing Matchups

1) BCS Title Game (Notre Dame vs. Alabama) — Two schools, deeply steeped in football tradition, take the field in Miami. No question, this matchup has some real teeth to it. Great defenses. Fantastic offensive lines. Quarterbacks with great game management. Strong, smart coaches who will strategize like crazy over the next month. Strength and power all over the field This has the makings of an all-out war and that's exactly how the title game should be played.

2) Orange Bowl (Florida State vs. Northern Illinois) — There was shock, followed by heaps of disrespect slung towards DeKalb, Illinois tonight. Don't hate the players, hate the game. NIU did everything they had to do and the rules of an imperfect system played out as they did. Florida State and the ACC have been very underwhelming to say the least. This is a huge game for the MAC and small conference teams out to prove their case. While the heavy money is on the Seminoles, there's got to be a feeling that the Huskies are going to play with a major chip on the shoulder. This could be interesting.

3) Cotton Bowl (Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M) — Johnny Football vs. Big Game Bob. What was an old conference matchup is now a bowl game setup that once again sets up perfectly for the folks in Dallas. You have to credit the Cotton Bowl; last year they snagged two top-10 teams in Arkansas and Kansas State and packed 80,000-plus into Cowboy Stadium. This year, they land two top-11 teams and will again have little to no trouble selling out, laughing at the Orange Bowl folks for a second straight year. Oh yeah, and the game should be great. A&M's prolific offense takes on a well balanced Sooner squad that tied for the Big 12 title. This could be a close, competitive game all the way. Here's a fun fact as well: the SEC has technically never lost in Cowboys Stadium (8-0); given that Texas A&M's 0-4 Jerry World mark came as a member of the Big 12.

4) Fiesta Bowl (Oregon vs. Kansas State) — Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that these two were projected for the national title game? This one is interesting because the two teams have similar, yet different philosophies. Both teams live off the ground game and utilize talented option-style quarterbacks. However, while Oregon will charge up and down the field in record pace, Kansas State will try to control the clock and keep the Duck offense off of the field. I expect the game to be short and quick, but whoever controls the tempo will prevail.

5) Outback Bowl (South Carolina vs. Michigan) — Generally, the Outback Bowl is a close matchup and this one should be no different. What intrigues me is that, in this game, you have two teams who have changed identities during the season. South Carolina had to change due to Marcus Lattimore's season-ending injury, but has responded well since his absence. Meanwhile, Michigan continues to experiment with Denard Robinson, who started the season under Heisman consideration, but now doesn't even take the starting snap under center. Brady Hoke and Steve Spurrier are confident coaches willing to tweak systems. When you get those types in a chess match type of game, it's hardly ever boring.

The Best Bets

1) Georgia over Nebraska — Did anyone see how badly Wisconsin destroyed Nebraska? Now, does anyone remember the absolute slugfest that Georgia and Alabama played? The strong, physical running attack that Georgia brings matches up well for the Bulldogs against Nebraska.

2) There will likely be over 80 points scored in the Holiday Bowl — You can't deny the offensive juggernaut that Art Briles has built at Baylor. The Bears are a good upset pick, given that they are playing their best football right now. While I don't think Baylor will score as many as they did in last year's Alamo Bowl win, I think they'll score plenty. They'll also give up a lot, as UCLA has a pretty good offense themselves, while the Bears defense still lags way behind their offensive prowess. Regardless, expect both teams to get into the 40-point range.

3) Utah State over Toledo — I really like this Utah State squad. Gary Andersen is quietly building a pretty good Aggie football program. I thought that they didn't play their best game in last year's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, losing to Ohio. This year, I think the Aggies are more mature, more talented and should finish the right way in Boise. USU is only getting stronger each year that Andersen is roaming the sidelines, which begs the question as to how long he stays in Ogden.

Bowls who won Selection Sunday

1) Fiesta — Oregon vs. Kansas State. Quality matchup.
2) Cotton — Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M. Great matchup, certain sellout and high ranked teams again.
3) Chick Fil-A — LSU vs. Clemson. Battle of the Tigers will be a good game with a big crowd.

Bowls who lost Selection Sunday

1) Orange — Florida State vs. Northern Illinois. Intriguing game, horrible ticket sales.
2) Sun — USC vs. Georgia Tech. Disappointing USC squad vs. 6-7 Tech. Ugh.
3) Independence — Ohio vs. La.-Monroe. What could've been with Louisiana Tech.

If you're mad at the lineup, point your finger at...

1) Louisiana Tech — Let's play devil's advocate here. Suppose the AD was right and that they asked Independence Bowl officials for more time, thinking the Liberty Bowl was within reach. That's still an insane move. This is a team whose conference went adios as of last Saturday. Would they have been a great Liberty Bowl pick? Absolutely. Sonny Dykes has one heck of an offense down in Ruston. Remember, they lost to Texas A&M 59-57 earlier this year. But if you haven't heard from any other bowls and one comes calling, you take it. You have no slot guaranteed. Take care of your players.

2) Jim Tressel — I won't touch Penn State as we've all had our fill there. However, Ohio State went 12-0 this season. Had Tressel not screwed up so royally and reported what he heard right away, the title game likely would've been Notre Dame vs. Ohio State. No unranked team with five losses in the Rose Bowl. No "Oh no, the SEC is going to win seven in a row." Just a matchup of two unbeaten teams.

3) The BCS, let's put it this way… — The BCS was supposed to get the very best teams in the biggest bowls. Instead, the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th ranked teams are all out of the BCS picture because of the BCS rules. The "two teams per conference" rule took out four SEC teams, while the mid-major rule vaulted Northern Illinois into the picture. Meanwhile, you have a team in Florida, who finished second in the SEC East, automatically in the BCS, while Georgia, the team who beat Florida and won the East, out of luck for any BCS bowl. Why? The Bulldogs fell four yards short in a tremendous SEC title game.

Conference title games aren't going away. There's way too much money involved to eliminate them. However, what's right with a system in which a division champion is punished for losing a game to a possible BCS champion while the team they beat to win the division waltzes right into the Sugar Bowl. It's not right. And it definitely brings concern to the table when you're talking about a four-team playoff with a selection committee. Who do you pick? How do you take Oregon when Stanford, ranked lower, still won the conference and beat Oregon in Eugene? How do you take Florida when they lost the game and division to Georgia? The four-team playoff sounds good on paper but without question, there's a lot of doubt about it fixing the problems that college football faces.

Alas, the die has been cast and the bowls have been set. Happy bowling, everyone!

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:47 PM | Comments (0)