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November 29, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 13

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-3½)

The Falcons narrowly escaped Tampa Bay with a win last week, winning 24-23 to run their record to 10-1. Atlanta will look to avenge their only loss of the season, a 31-27 loss to the Saints in Week 10.

"I'm proud of this team," Mike Smith said. "They showed the heart of a champion. Now it remains to be seen if we can show the playoff record of a champion. From what I hear, it takes at least one win to do so.

"We're on our way to clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. And based on my playoff record as a head coach, that makes us not only the team to beat, but a team to beat."

The Saints' three-game winning streak came to an end last Sunday, as the 49ers turned two Drew Brees' interceptions into 14 points in a 31-21 win in the Superdome. The loss dropped New Orleans to 5-6.

"The 49ers sacked me 5 times," Brees said. "They came at me like there was a price on my head, because they 'tagged' me.

"Roger Goodell thinks he's cleaned up bounties in the NFL. He's wrong. I endorse Vick's NyQuil, so I'm still getting paid to knock people out. Here's an interesting fact: Brett Favre played much of his career with one 'G' on his helmet. Curiously enough, when he came to the Superdome as a Viking, he had 10 'Gs' on his head. And you didn't hear that from Jonathan Vilma."

Atlanta wins, 34-31.

Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-7)

The Jaguars snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 24-19 win over the Titans as Chad Henne passed for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now 2-9, Jacksonville takes to the road to face the 4-7 Bills.

"Chad Henne may just be the Jaguars' quarterback of the future," Mike Mularkey said. "By that, I mean he's starting on Sunday. Chad gives us something Blaine Gabbert couldn't — talent."

After a 2-1 start to the season, the Bills have lost six of eight to fall to 4-7. They'll host the 2-9 Jaguars on Sunday at Rich Stadium.

"Although it appears there won't be an NHL hockey season," Ryan Fitzpatrick said, "there will still be 'checks' in Buffalo. It seems that most of them are going to Mario Williams."

Buffalo wins, 23-19.

Seattle @ Chicago (-3)

Jay Cutler returned from a concussion last week and helped the Bears to a decisive 28-10 win over the Vikings. However, the win was costly for the Bears, as Devin Hester, Matt Forte, and Charles Tillman left the game with injuries.

"We're hurting," Cutler said. "Not as much as we were when Jason Campbell was starting, because everybody felt his pain.

"We'll have to be ready for the Seahawks. They may be the underdog, but they've been known to steal wins."

Seattle's road woes continued last week with a 24-21 loss in Miami, the Seahawks' fifth loss on the road this season. Down the stretch, the Seahawks could be without defensive backs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, who may face suspensions for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy.

"I've never claimed to run a 'clean' program," Pete Carroll said. "But seriously, I have no control over what pro athletes put in their bodies, just as I have no control over what college athletes put in their wallets. And you can take that to the bank.

"Sherman and Boyd filed their appeals on time," Pete Carroll said, "so they'll be with us in Chicago. The league can mind their 'pees,' but Richard and Brandon wisely mind their 'cues.'"

If the Seahawks can't win on the road, they'll, ironically, be home for the playoffs. The Bears force three Russell Wilson turnovers, and Cutler leads Chicago to a 23-17 win.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (+6½)

The 49ers came away with a 31-21 win over the Saints last Sunday, returning two Drew Brees interceptions for touchdowns. San Francisco is 8-2-1 and chasing the Falcons for the NFC's top seed.

"Alex Smith could have played," Jim Harbaugh said, "but I chose to start Colin Kaepernick. That's what Alex, as well as my doctor, calls a 'half-hearted' commitment.

"If I told Alex he would be starting, I must have done so with my fingers crossed. As you know, that's not legally-binding, nor is 'pinkie-swearing' with Ronnie Lott. I have no doubt that both Smith and Kaepernick could be starting next year. Kaepernick for us, and Smith for someone else."

The Rams face the 49ers for the second time in three weeks. In their last meeting, the teams played to a 24-24 tie.

"We know what it's like to play to a standstill," Jeff Fisher said. "Or at least our offense does. We're 28th in scoring. It's not often we hear '28' and 'scoring' in the same sentence."

Kaepernick gets the start, and it's nip and tuck throughout, with both teams trying their best to win, mainly to avoid a tie, because they still don't understand overtime rules.

San Francisco wins, 26-17.

New England @ Miami (+9)

The Patriots blasted the Jets 49-19 on Thanksgiving night at MetLife Stadium, sending the home team to its worse defeat this season. Now 8-3, New England has a commanding three-game lead over the 5-6 Dolphins, who are 3-2 at home this year.

"My favorite part of Thanksgiving is a trip to the dessert table," Tom Brady said. "What does that have to do with destroying the Jets? It was a 'cake walk' as well.

"We've scored 98 points in our last two games. Ninety-eight points is a good game for the Heat, and a good month for the Dolphins."

The Dolphins bounced back from a Week 11 loss in Buffalo with a 24-21 win over the Seahawks last Sunday. Ryan Tannehill threw for 253 yards and a touchdown to lead the 'Fins.

"I don't think any of Dan Marino's records are in jeopardy," Tannehill said, "especially that one about never winning a Super Bowl."

Attendance at Sun Life Stadium has been sparse this season for the Dolphins, but expect the fans to come out in droves to see Brady and the Patriots. Of course, may of those fans will be rooting for New England, which is what happens when the Dolphins get "patronized."

Brady further "patronizes" the home team when he takes a knee with the Patriots clinging to a 7-point lead early in the third quarter. The Pats tack on two more scores out of respect, then Brady takes a knee out of sympathy.

New England wins, 38-17.

Arizona @ NY Jets (-3)

The Jets fell apart in a 49-19 loss to the Patriots on Thanksgiving night, as a scoreless first quarter soon turned into a blowout. New England scored 35 unanswered points, with two touchdowns coming on fumble returns for scores.

"Jets superfan 'Fireman Ed' is hanging up his hat," Rex Ryan said. "Like me, he said he's had enough of the quarterback controversy here. And, interestingly enough, Fireman Ed's about as useless as me at 'putting out fires.'

"But at least I know Tim Tebow will be able to play on Sunday. Jets fans will be happy to hear that he's ready to go. Jets fans would be happier if I was ready to go. They'd be happier if I'd already went."

With last week's 31-17 loss to the Rams, the Cardinals have now lost seven games in a row, and their 4-0 start is now a faded memory. Quarterback Ryan Lindley threw 4 interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.

"A game in MetLife Stadium is a nightmare come true for me," Ken Whisenhunt said. "I've grown accustomed to seeing three useless quarterbacks on Sunday; now there'll be five."

New York wins, 20-16.

Indianapolis @ Detroit (-3½)

The Lions fell to 4-7 with their ninth consecutive Thanksgiving loss, dropping a 34-31 overtime loss to the visiting Texans. Jim Schwartz challenged a Texans' scoring play that was likely to be overturned, but the NFL rulebook dictated an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for Schwartz, as well as no review of the play.

"That's one kick in the nuts Ndamukong Suh was not responsible for," Schwartz said. "I guess the Texans owe me a pat on the back. In any case, it was a dickens of a Thanksgiving."

The Colts improved to 7-4 with a 20-13 win over the Bills, and Indianapolis is in solid position to earn a wild card playoff spot.

"If the regular season ended today," Andrew Luck said, "our season would likely end the following week in Denver in a made-for-television showdown with Peyton Manning. I think my talents compare quite favorably to Manning's, but most agree that he's got the better supporting cast. So our matchup would have to be called 'Luck Versus Manning: This Time, It's Personnel.'

"I'll be sure to be on the lookout for Suh. But I won't call him out like Schaub did. I'm not an outspoken guy. My philosophy is to 'speak softly and wear a big cup."

Matthew Stafford throws for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns, two to Calvin Johnson, and the Lions win, 34-27.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-9)

The Packers were pounded on Sunday night in MetLife Stadium, losing 38-10 to the Giants, Green Bay' worst defeat since 2007. The loss dropped the Packers to 7-5, a game behind the 8-4 Bears in the NFC North,

"The Giants whipped us with the entire nation watching on NBC," Aaron Rodgers said. "As a Packer, I can say that we, indeed, were 'publicly owned.'"

The Vikings lost to the Bears 28-10 in Chicago, as the Bears put the game away early after taking a 25-3 halftime lead. Christian Ponder struggled, while Adrian Peterson rushed for 102 yards, but lost 2 fumbles.

"After much deliberation," Leslie Frazier said, "I've decided to stick with Ponder at quarterback. By definition, 'ponder' means 'to think or consider soberly and deeply.' In other words, I often have 'second thoughts' about starting Ponder."

Rodgers calls a players only meeting, and tells his teammates he's sick and tire, not only of losses to the Giants, but silly mustaches as well. Rodgers loses the peach fuzz, and the Packers bounce back with a vengeance.

Green Bay wins, 30-20.

Houston @ Tennessee (+5½)

The Texans became the first team to win consecutive overtime games after nipping the Lions 34-31 in Detroit on Thanksgiving. Now 10-1, Houston can clinch a playoff berth win a win over the 4-7 Titans.

"The NFL has decided not to suspend Ndamukong Suh for kicking me in the groin on Thanksgiving," Matt Schaub said. "That's ludicrous. Suh should have been suspended two games, or, at the very least, been banished to spend a night at the 'Nutcracker Suite.' Ironically, Suh's was the only 'big kick' a Lion connected on that day.

"What concerns me more is our defense. We've given up 68 points in the last two games. There's a 'Big D' in the state of Texas, but apparently, there's not even a little 'D' in Houston."

The Titans lost to the Jaguars 24-19 and are now 4-7 and 0-3 in the AFC South. On Tuesday, head coach Mike Munchak fired offensive coordinator Chris Palmer.

"One of the most necessary tasks of coaching," Munchak said, "is delegation. I'm one of the best at delegating blame. Palmer had some great qualities as a coach, his best being his expendability."

The Texans' defense shows up for the first time in three games, and J.J. Watt sacks Jake Locker twice. Andre Johnson tweaks his hamstring early in the game, giving the Texans another sore "Johnson," but guts it out and records a late touchdown reception.

Houston wins, 27-14.

Carolina @ Kansas City (+3)

With a 17-9 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs now sit all alone at 1-10 with the NFL's worst record. The Chiefs managed only three Ryan Succup field goals in the loss, while Brady Quinn struggled.

"As you've probably heard," Romeo Crenel said, "Jamaal Charles got Peyton Manning's autograph after the game. If that's not a 'sign' we've given up on the season, I don't know what is. If I could get my quarterbacks to sign something, it would be a 'release,' or a 'waiver.'

"Luckily, only one Chief asked for Manning's autograph. So, one autograph was 'all he wrote.' My concern is hearing my boss say that's 'all she wrote.'"

Cam Newton burned the Eagles with 4 touchdowns, 2 passing and 2 rushing, in the Panthers' 30-22 Monday night win over the Eagles. Carolina is now 3-8 in the NFC South.

"While I'm recognized by fans all over the country," Newton said, "I doubt the fans in Kansas City would have any idea who I am. That's because that city hasn't 'identified' a good quarterback in years."

Newton is held in check through the air by the Chiefs' defense, but he does damage on the ground. Quinn, or Matt Cassel, or Len Dawson, or whomever starts for the Chiefs, does damage as well, but to their own team.

Carolina wins, 20-19.

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-7)

The Broncos have all but locked up the AFC West division after a 17-9 win in Kansas City, led by 285 yards passing and 2 touchdowns from Peyton Manning, as well as a stifling defense that held the Chiefs to 13 first downs. Denver leads the West by four games with five to play.

"You know what they call a Brady Quinn pass?" Manning said. "The same thing the Chargers call the Broncos — 'uncatchable.'

"I've got to give our defense a lot of credit. Much of that should go to defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. He's a lot like me — the best thing that's happened to us was leaving the AFC South. And, in honor of our defense, my Papa John's franchises will be offering pizzas with 'orange crust.'"

The Buccaneers nearly upset the Falcons, but fell short 24-23. The Bucs are 6-5 in the NFC South, well behind the 10-1 Falcons, but are still in the hunt for a wild card spot.

"Our defense will have to be at its best against Manning," Greg Schiano said. "He reads defenses like Tim Tebow reads the Bible — with joy, and with the belief that what it tells him is the gospel truth."

Manning should have a field day against the porous Tampa pass defense, and in the end, enamored Bucs' defender won't need Manning's autograph, because his signature will be all over a Broncos win.

Manning passes for 284 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Broncos win, 31-17.

Cleveland @ Oakland (-1½)

The Browns forced a whopping eight turnovers last week in a 20-14 win over the Steelers in the Dawg Pound. Cleveland is now 3-8 in the AFC North with a date in the Black Hole awaiting.

"The Steelers are obviously not the same without Ben Roethlisberger," Pat Shurmur said. "On the other hand, the Raiders are the same with Carson Palmer."

The Raiders were smashed 38-10 in Cincinnati and fell to 3-8, third in the AFC West. They'll try to end a four-game slide against the improving Browns.

"If Al Davis were here today," Dennis Allen said, "he'd be the embodiment of the current Raiders — no signs of life."

Oakland wins, 27-20.

Cincinnati @ San Diego (+2)

In Carson Palmer's return to Cincinnati last week, the Bengals whipped the Raiders 34-10 as Palmer was sacked 4 times and held to 146 yards passing. The win moved the Bengals into a tie for second with the Steelers in the AFC North at 6-5.

"We reminded Palmer why we don't need him," Marvin Lewis said. "He reminded us why we don't want him. We put him in his place, on a plane back to Oakland."

The Chargers lost a tough 16-13 overtime battle to the Ravens last week. Now 4-7, San Diego trails Denver by four games in the AFC West.

"Look at this," Philip Rivers said. "We're underdogs at Qualcomm Stadium. Along with the boos from our fans, that's just further proof that we're not 'favored' at home.

"We had the Baltimore game won, then Ray Rice converted a fourth-and-29. And they say Ndamukong Suh is a real ball-breaker. When people ask 'What's new?' is San Diego, oh how I wish I could answer 'a coach.' Instead, the only thing 'new' here are 'ways to lose.'"

At 4-7, the Chargers have reason to get angry. And, they have reason to get "even," as an 8-8 record is their only achievable goal.

San Diego win, 26-23.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-1½)

The Ravens pulled out an improbable 16-13 overtime win in San Diego last week, a win that likely would not have been possible without an amazing 4th-and-29 conversion from Ray Rice that led to the game-tying field goal.

"Ray saw lots of daylight," Joe Flacco said. "The weather's been strange in San Diego this year — the sun's out all the time.

"Congratulations to Ben Roethlisberger on the birth of his son. One day, that kid's gonna say, 'I've got a some Roethlisberger in me,' and become the first person to say that and not press charges."

The Steelers looked awful in Cleveland last week, turning the ball over eight times in a costly 20-14 loss. Pittsburgh fell to 6-5 and see their playoff hopes slipping.

"What do you expect," Mike Tomlin said. "We sign Plaxico Burress, and everybody starts shooting themselves.

"There's a 50-50 chance Roethlisberger will be able to play on Sunday. That means there's a 50% chance of us being 100% sure to lose."

Baltimore wins, 24-13.

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-3)

The Eagles lost on Monday Night Football 30-22 to the Panthers, Philly's seventh consecutive defeat. Afterwards, in a surprise move, the Eagles cut defensive end Jason Babin, just 18 months after signing a five-year, $28 million contract.

"I'm just as mystified as anyone," Andy Reid said, "as to how this team can 'trim the fat' and still keep me around. Ask Juan Castillo — it's probably not the only time we've 'cleaned house' this year.

"This squad was once called the 'Dream Team. That nickname has been put to sleep. On the plus side, we've helped settle the argument about which 'Dream Team' is better: clearly, the 1992 Dream Team would beat us, in football."

The Cowboys took a Thanksgiving beating at the hands of the Redskins, losing 38-31 despite 441 yards passing from Tony Romo. Dallas is 5-6 in the NFC East, two games behind the Giants.

"One enterprising Dallas fan started a petition to remove Jerry Jones from power," Romo said. "Jerry's not going anywhere. Appropriately, we're playing the Eagles, who have had their fair share of meaningless 'signings.'"

Dallas wins, 27-20.

NY Giants @ Washington (+2½)

The Giants broke a two-game losing streak with a flourish, smacking the visiting Panthers 38-10 last Sunday night. Eli Manning broke out of his slump with 249 yards passing and three touchdowns.

"I'm finally back in a groove," Manning said. "For the season, I'm completing 60% of my passes, which is only average in this league. That means that about 60% of the time, I'm an elite quarterback. The rest of the time, I'm just Eli Manning."

Robert Griffin III and the high-flying Redskins will look to trim their deficit in the NFC East to one game with a win over the Giants. RG3 torched the Cowboys on Thanksgiving with 311 yards through the air and 4 TDs.

"Some people say I'm the second coming of Randall Cunningham, or Michael Vick, or any other black quarterback," Griffin said. "That's all very flattering, but the truth is, I'm merely the second coming of Robert Griffin, Jr. My motto is 'Stay humble, my friend.' That's also my pitch to Dos Equis to expand their brand into the urban market. I'm the perfect choice to shill for 'III Equis.'"

Washington wins, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:34 PM | Comments (0)

November 28, 2012

Rockets Head Coach Deals With Tragic Loss

As sports fans, we regularly get caught up in the daily highs and lows of our favorite teams. Each game brings exhilaration with a win, or heartbreak with a loss. Either way, we wait for the next game, the next season, certain that this will be the year we grab the brass ring.

As important as sports is in our culture, we often forget the players and coaches we admire or criticize are real people, just like us. They are not superhuman,. They breathe, eat, and sleep just like us. They have families, and they suffer pain and tragedy, just as we do. When that pain and tragedy strikes, wins and losses in the box score pale in comparison to the loss of a life.

On November 10, Houston Rockets head coach Kevin McHale announced he was taking a leave of absence from the team to deal with a family matter. No time frame for his absence was given, and no other details were immediately revealed, other than that assistant coach Kelvin Sampson would take over on an interim basis.

The reason for McHale's absence became painfully clear November 24, when it was announced his 23-year-old daughter Alexandra "Sasha" McHale died in Minneapolis after being hospitalized with a condition related to her long struggle with Lupus, an autoimmune disease.

While Sampson described McHale as "distraught" over his loss, he was quick to point out McHale has been in constant touch with the team and following their progress. During Sasha's hospitalization, McHale watched his team's games on a laptop at the hospital, and discussed strategy with Sampson on a daily basis.

Such attention to detail in the midst of a difficult situation has not been lost on the players. To a man, they have expressed admiration that their leader is thinking of their welfare, even while suffering the pain and grief of a lost loved one. While they realize that games must still be played, and life will go on, things won't be the same for McHale and his family from here on out. Guard Jeremy Lin said it best when he told the Houston Chronicle, "obviously, we all care about Coach a lot. To see what he's going through puts perspective into everything that we're really dealing with or working toward."

It's unclear when McHale will officially return to the team, but the Rockets will certainly give him all the time he needs. As fans, we'll continue to cheer and vilify our favorite teams, players and coaches. We'll keep celebrating each win, and pitch a fit after another loss. We'll forget, again, that every athlete, coach, owner, or referee is just doing their job, giving it their best, and that each goes home to his wife and kids, just as we do. But in McHale's case, he now has one less child to come home to. Such a realization should be a sobering reminder that any of us who have loved ones could be next to face grief head-on. At that point, life isn't just a game; it's reality. The real "champions" are those who overcome those losses.

Posted by Stephen Kerr at 1:15 PM | Comments (0)

Stellar 2012 Season Had a Few Low Points

2012 will go down as one of the best tennis seasons in the history of the game. On the men's side, we witnessed the confirmation of what many have accurately predicted back at the end of the previous decade: the next Golden Age of Men's Tennis is here. With Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, four players from four different countries, at the top, knocking each other off, tennis fans can take comfort in knowing that men's tennis is not short of great rivalries.

While Bjorn Borg/John McEnroe rivalry with (Jimmy Connors as the side-kick) of the late-'70s and early-'80s captured the world's attention and went down in history as the first Golden Age of Men's tennis, this current crop of players exceed in quality of tennis played and, well … okay, I will say it: in behavior.

This group's high-level tennis is the sole responsible of the rising popularity of tennis around the world in the last few years, whereas the former Golden Age did have the support of McEnroe and Connors' boorish behaviors making the headlines. But that is another discussion. Suffice it to say that four players at the top provide multiple rivalries, and fans can expect high-level excitement every time two of these players walk on the court to face each other. Each won one Slam this year and the finals of each Slam were terrific matches.

The women's tour also had a comeback year following the previous few dismal seasons. Serena Williams is back on top of her game; Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova are consistently performing well. Most importantly, tennis fans are getting familiar with some of the faces on the WTA Tour after few years of then-unknown players winning titles, because some of those players have maintained their high level of performance. We may not have a Martina Navratilova/Chris Evert type of rivalry for the ages, but we can rest assured that we will witness some wonderful tennis in 2013.

In team competition, Czechs swept both Fed Cup and Davis Cup. The Davis Cup especially final provided some thrilling moments. With the unlikely hero of the weekend being 34-year-old Radek Stepanek and the tie going to the decisive fifth rubber match, it exceeded all expectations. Stepanek went down as one of the legends of Davis Cup, certainly as a legend — period — in Czech Republic, by playing three three-out-of-five sets matches in three days, playing the leading role in his team's doubles match win on Saturday with Tomas Berdych and against one of the best doubles team in the world, and defeating Nicolas Almagro of Spain in the fifth and deciding match as an underdog.

Despite the Lance Armstrong fall-out in the sports world, and media's best efforts to use that in favor of their ratings by reporting that "allegedly" or "according to unidentified sources" (fill in the blank) tennis player is suspected of doping or match-fixing, tennis remained clean and continues to be one of the cleaner sports.

That being said, just like the old-saying "nothing is perfect" reminds us, 2012 did not remain completely free of a few low moments.

Rafael Nadal's season-ending injury stopped us from having a full season with all four players fighting for the No. 1 position. One can hope that Rafa's recovery will be quick. He has started practicing again, so we know that he will be back. Whether he can regain his previous top-level form and stay free from injuries in the long term will be for everyone to see, but I cannot deny that it makes me nervous to see him battle serious injuries more than once in the last few years.

Another low occurred in the finals of the Olympic Games on the men's side. It was anti-climactic to see Andy Murray's three-set, one-sided, routine win over Roger Federer, considering that we just saw the day before two semifinals that left our mouths watering for a stellar final. In the semis, Andy Murray overwhelmed Novak Djokovic in a tight match and Roger Federer defeated Juan Martin Del Potro in one of the best matches of the year, including a marathon 18-16 third set.

Bernard Tomic's tennis career is definitely on a low point, but tennis was not the only staggering factor in 2012 for the 20-year-old Australian. He had an embarrassing court procedure that recently ended with him being found guilty of failing to stop for police while driving recklessly his high-powered $150,000 BMW in Queensland, Australia. Sadly, this is not his only run-in with the law. There were two other incidents this year and I will not write the details here since they can be found on the web for those interested. But it's enough to say that during one of those incidents Tomic apparently resorted to the "do you know who I am?" line when questioned by an officer.

2013 will probably go down as a year that French tennis fans may want to forget due to the contentious court battle involving the well-known coach Régis de Camaret and several ex-female students of Camaret who were accusing him of rape and sexual harassment when they were minors in a training center in Saint-Tropez in the '80s and '90s.

The bitter trial just ended last week with Camaret found guilty and sentenced to eight years in prison. It was an emotional and exhausting trial for all involved and scarred the French Tennis Federation (FFT) because one of its high-profile figures, ex-champion and Wimbledon finalist Nathalie Tauziat, who was coached by Camaret for most of her career, defended Camaret until the end and appeared as a star witness for the defendant.

Perhaps the real low occurred when FFT announced immediately after that they would no longer have Tauziat as their Committee Director. Tauziat was a witness, asked to testify during trial, and testified under oath what she knew. Since when this qualifies for dismissal from one's job, that is a question asked by many angry French tennis followers as I write this article.

Despite these few lows, tennis fans leave behind a superb 2012 campaign, and have no reason to believe that 2013 promises any less. Until then, have a great holiday season, everyone!

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:23 AM | Comments (0)

November 27, 2012

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* More on Jim Schwartz and the unreviewable play in Detroit's summary, but it's not just Lion fans who are mad about this stupid challenge rule. Houston's win — which might have happened anyway, but probably not — could also affect the Ravens, Patriots, and Broncos in playoff seeding.

* In Seattle's loss to Miami, Seahawks returner Leon Washington scored his 8th career kickoff return TD, tying the career record held by Josh Cribbs. Washington continues to move up the list of the greatest kick returners ever.

* The Toronto Argonauts defeated the Calgary Stampeders 35-22 for this year's Grey Cup. Congrats to the Argos on their first CFL championship since 2004.

* In the third quarter of Monday night's game, ESPN skipped a play to show a promo. Mike Tirico was on, talking about football, but instead of covering a 21-15 game in progress, he was talking about a game that hadn't started yet. C'mon, Man.

* The 49ers' special teams coach, Brad Seely, needs to start, you know, coaching his return men. Ted Ginn Jr. fumbled because he tried to return a ball he clearly needed to fair catch, and Kyle Williams fair caught a punt he clearly needed to let bounce (he was at the 5-yard line).

***

I'm a huge advocate of the NFL's player safety initiatives, and in many respects I believe the league isn't doing enough. But there has to be an element of common sense. On Monday night, Greg Hardy was called for a 15-yard roughness penalty. Jon Gruden disagreed with the flag: "They should throw that on the quarterback. You can't throw the ball late back into the middle of the field and expect anything else."

The league's goal is that players can expect something else, but Gruden is right that Nick Foles put his receiver at unnecessary risk. If your man is about to get lit up, throw it at his feet or over his head. I'm not excusing dangerous plays or illegal hits, but a passer needs to understand the situation. Hardy's hit probably merited a flag, though it's a harsh penalty for a borderline call. The player who clearly did something wrong on that play was Foles.

As always, brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. San Francisco 49ers [3] — Held the Saints to 290 yards and 3/11 on third downs. They sacked Drew Brees 5 times and scored on 2 interception returns. The game felt a little like last year's playoff win, with the Niners taking an early lead and then watching the clock, waiting for it to run out before the Saints could come back. Colin Kaepernick played well again, and I can't imagine anyone really believes the team might start Alex Smith in Week 13.

2. Denver Broncos [2] — Do you ever wonder if certain coaches deliberately screw with fantasy football owners? Everyone who handcuffed or wasted a waiver move on Ronnie Hillman, meet Knowshon Moreno. Matt Prater missed two field goals this week, one of them tough (47 yards) and the other a chip-shot (33).

3. New England Patriots [4] — Won by at least 30 points for the second week in a row, and the third time in their last four games. As long as we're listing ridiculous scoring accomplishments:

* The Thanksgiving Day Massacre was New England's fifth win of the season by more than 20 points.
* This week, the Patriots scored 35 points in the second quarter.
* That includes three TDs in 52 seconds.
* They've scored 5 return TDs in the last two games.
* The Patriots have 49 TDs this season. No one else has more than 40.
* New England has outscored its opponents by 169, most in the NFL. The 49ers are next, +121.

4. Houston Texans [1] — Won in overtime for the second week in a row. This was also the second consecutive game in which they came back from a double-digit second half deficit. The obvious stars were J.J. Watt and Andre Johnson. Watt finished with 5 solo tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 pass deflections. Johnson, already coming off his biggest game of the season, caught 9 passes for 188 yards. His 461 receiving yards the last two weeks are the highest two-game total in NFL history.

Despite dropping them three spots this week, I'm not reading much into Houston's problems on Thursday. They had a road game on a short week, and most of the trouble came from two bad matchups. Ndamukong Suh absolutely destroyed right guard Ben Jones, and with top corner Johnathan Joseph out (hamstring), Detroit's Calvin Johnson had 8 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. Next week's opponent, Tennessee, won't be able to exploit those matchups.

5. Chicago Bears [7] — Up 25-3 at halftime, they took their foot off the gas pedal in the second half and coasted to an easy victory over the Vikings. Television analysts attributed the win to Jay Cutler (188 yards, 86.5 passer rating), but the offense did not play well this week. Cutler only got sacked once, but Brandon Marshall averaged just 7.7 yards per reception, and neither Matt Forte nor Michael Bush was efficient running the ball (combined 2.9 yds/att). The Bears didn't get any defensive or special teams scores on Sunday, but they did force three turnovers and a blocked field goal.

A number of key players got hurt in the win, including Lance Briggs, Matt Forte, and Charles Tillman. As of this writing, their status going forward is unclear. Guard Lance Louis is out for the year.

6. Atlanta Falcons [6] — Big win, on the road, against a division opponent and fellow playoff contender. Already missing standout cornerback Brent Grimes, the Falcons also saw Asante Samuel and Dunta Robinson leave Sunday's game with injuries.

7. Baltimore Ravens [8] — Let's talk about 4th-and-29. That's unmakeable. But the Ravens dumped a pass off to Ray Rice near the line of scrimmage, and from there it looked like a kickoff return, with Rice cutting all the way across the field en route to a 30-yard gain and a first down that set up the game-tying field goal. On the replay, it looked like Rice got a generous spot, like maybe he only gained 28 yards. But if you're San Diego, you can't let it come down to a measurement like that. 4th-and-29!

8. Green Bay Packers [5] — It's hard to rank this team without knowing when injured playmakers like Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson might return. Offensive line is obviously a problem here, but a lot of the sacks are on Aaron Rodgers. He has got to throw the ball away more often. It would also be nice to the see the coaches change up formations to keep some extra blockers in when the tackles are getting killed like that. It looked like the Packers gave up in the second quarter anyway, but Sunday night's game showed disappointing lapses in judgment on several levels.

9. New Orleans Saints [10] — Drew Brees got sacked a season-high five times, and threw multiple pick-sixes for the third time since he joined the Saints in 2006. Darren Sproles led the team in receptions (7) and receiving yards (65). It's weird to look at a Saints box score and see R.Bush listed.

10. Cincinnati Bengals [14] — Won by at least 18 for the third week in a row. Granted, pounding the Chiefs (28-6) and Raiders (34-10) is par for the course, but Cincinnati also dropped a nasty beatdown (31-13) on the Giants in Week 10.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [11] — I know they lost, but can we talk for a moment about Ronde Barber? At 37 years old, he leads the team in interceptions (4) and he's 2nd in the NFL in INT return yardage (160). The Bucs' defense is pretty bad, and Barber obviously isn't the same player he was five or 10 years ago, but the old man can still play.

12. New York Giants [13] — Everything they've been doing badly for the last month, they did well against Green Bay. With the Cowboys seemingly incapable of consistent performance and allergic to winning their most important games, a Week 13 win in Washington would probably guarantee the Giants an NFC East title.

13. Seattle Seahawks [9] — Both starting cornerbacks, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, face four-game suspensions after testing positive for Adderall. The secondary is the strength of this team, so those suspensions matter quite a lot, though neither begins until after this week's game against Chicago.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers [12] — Charged with four turnovers against Cleveland ... in the fourth quarter alone. That includes a desperation play with laterals as time expired, but it's pretty sad to end a game with just 13 first downs, including 1/9 on third down, and 8 turnovers. Yes, eight. Two or three years ago, it wasn't a big deal for Charlie Batch to cover for Ben Roethlisberger while he recovered from a motorcycle crash or served suspension for crashing a frat party. But now, Batch is a week shy of his 38th birthday and playing behind a subpar offensive line. It sounds like there's about a 50% chance of Roethlisberger playing against the Ravens in Week 13, but it's unlikely he'll be in top form.

15. Washington Redskins [20] — Who is Washington's best receiver? Santana Moss? Pierre Garçon? What Robert Griffin III is doing with this receiving corps is stunning. He threw four TDs for the second week in a row — the first rookie ever to do so — and Washington scored 28 points in the second quarter alone.

16. Detroit Lions [17] — Boomer Esiason called it "the most punitive penalty in NFL history." Lions head coach Jim Schwartz threw the red challenge flag on a play that was subject to automatic review, which is a 15-yard penalty. But unbeknownst to most of us, it also negated the review, giving Houston an 81-yard touchdown. This is probably the stupidest rule in NFL history, and it sounds like it will be eliminated, either in the offseason or maybe sooner. Fifteen yards is harsh enough; the replay needs to happen.

17. Indianapolis Colts [18] — They're 5-1 at home, 2-3 on the road. It looks like they're going to get a wild card playoff entry, with a first-round game, outdoors in January, against someone like New England or Denver. I'll call it right now: Colts lose by at least two touchdowns. Given their history last decade, it would be appropriate for Peyton Manning to lead a rout in a Broncos/Colts playoff game.

18. Dallas Cowboys [15] — Decent second-half comeback after they trailed 28-3 at halftime. In the first half, Tony Romo threw 21 passes and handed off to running backs 7 times. That's awfully imbalanced, three times as many passes. In the second half, Romo dropped back 44 times and handed off zero times.

19. Cleveland Browns [24] — Started 0-5. Since then, they're 3-3. Brandon Weeden suffered a concussion on Sunday. Colt McCoy would play in Week 13 if Weeden can't go. McCoy's passer rating last season (74.6) was better than Weeden's this year (70.9), so this probably isn't a major concern.

20. San Diego Chargers [19] — Heart-breaking loss in overtime. The Chargers are 4-7, despite outscoring opponents this season (245-237). Demorrio Williams and Shareece Wright combined for 7 special teams tackles this week.

21. Carolina Panthers [26] — If Cam Newton plays like that again next week, they'll win back-to-back for the first time since last December.

22. Minnesota Vikings [16] — Christian Ponder passed for 159 yards with a 58.2 passer rating. It's not clear when Percy Harvin will be ready to play again, but so far it doesn't sound like he'll be ready in Week 13.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars [29] — Suppose you took a mediocre NFL team, bad but not terrible, and replaced their QB with a good high school senior. That team would have the worst offense in the NFL. If you restored a real NFL quarterback — not a standout, but someone like David Garrard or Chad Henne — you'd get a totally different team. Helpless Blaine Gabbert is not a high school senior, but that's pretty much where the Jags are right now: a totally different team.

24. Miami Dolphins [27] — Scored 17 fourth-quarter points to snap a three-game losing streak. The defense shut down Marshawn Lynch (46 yds, 2.6 avg), while Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas combined for 147 yards and 2 TDs, both averaging over 6 yards per attempt. Davone Bess finished with 129 receiving yards, and Brian Hartline with 17.

25. St. Louis Rams [25] — Janoris Jenkins scored on a pair on interception returns, Steven Jackson rushed for 139 yards, and Chris Givens gained 115 receiving, with the go-ahead touchdown. Unfortunately, the Rams went 3/11 on third downs (27%) and 0/3 in the red zone (FG, missed FG, INT). They won because they played against a bad team.

26. Tennessee Titans [21] — In every game they've played this season, the opponent's leading receiver has out-gained the Titans' leading receiver. Their only 100-yard receiver is Nate Washington (3 receptions for 113 yards in Week 3). Kenny Britt's season-high is 67 yards, in their blowout loss to the Bears.

27. Buffalo Bills [23] — Lost four of their last five, but Mario Williams had three sacks on Sunday, and C.J. Spiller continues to average 6.75 yards per attempt this season. He's on pace to break Jim Brown's single-season record for average per carry (6.40).

28. New York Jets [22] — All kinds of disaster on Thursday, but one preventable catastrophe stood out. Joe McKnight fielded a kickoff seven yards deep in his own end zone. He ran it out, fumbled it straight to Julian Edelman, and New England scored on the fumble return. Don't bring that one out of the end zone.

29. Arizona Cardinals [28] — They went 4-2 with Kevin Kolb. They're 0-5 since his injury. Beanie Wells scored 2 TDs this week, so you might assume that he averaged more than three yards per carry. LaRod Stephens-Howling rushed for 127 yards last week, so you might assume he touched the ball more than once on Sunday. You know what they say about when you assume.

30. Philadelphia Eagles [30] — Already without Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy, they also lost DeSean Jackson in the first half. Rookie RB Bryce Brown showed flashes of brilliance, but he also lost two fumbles. Steve Young called Philadelphia "a team that's going through the motions." I'm sure some other team will be happy to bring in Andy Reid as head coach, but it's probably best for both Reid and the Eagles that they part ways after this season.

31. Oakland Raiders [31] — Tommy Kelly and Lamarr Houston were ejected from their blowout loss to the Bengals. In the last three weeks, they've been outscored 127-47. All three losses were by more than 20 points.

32. Kansas City Chiefs [32] — Eighth loss in a row, and they've been outscored by a league-worst 140 points. They lose by an average of almost 2 touchdowns a game.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:41 PM | Comments (2)

November 26, 2012

The Case for Florida

For nearly 15 years, the BCS' aim has been to match up the best two teams in the country to play for a mythical national championship unsanctioned by the NCAA. Often times, the results are doubted by just about everyone with a pulse who knows nothing or everything about football. In fact, it's only the rarest of years, such as 1999 and 2005 when two undefeated major conference teams top the polls, where a relative lack of debate occurs.

This year promises to be one of those rare years. After Notre Dame's 22-13 win against USC effectively clinched its spot in Miami on Jan. 7, the Fighting Irish will almost surely play the winner of next Saturday's SEC Championship Game between Georgia and Florida for the BCS crown. The consensus is that, with Kansas State and Oregon's losses a little over a week ago, the one-loss SEC champion deserves to play for the title.

An SEC team should play the Irish. It just shouldn't be Alabama or Georgia.

This is the point where a big question mark is likely forming over your head, and you're wondering if I'm seriously going to advocate for a Florida team that lost to Georgia or any of the conference's stellar two-loss teams in Texas A&M, LSU or South Carolina. I'm here to tell you that Florida should play for the title. In fact, if the two teams who play for the title are supposed to be teams that have accomplished the most and proven themselves over a full season, Notre Dame and Florida is nearly an obvious matchup to prove the best team under the current system.

As of the most recent AP poll's release on Sunday, Florida has defeated four teams in the top 14 of the ranking, including road wins at Texas A&M and Florida State. To this point, Georgia's one top 25 win is against Florida, and its best road win came at 5-7 Missouri in a game that was far closer than the 41-20 margin indicates. Plus, the Bulldogs barely squeaked by putrid clubs like Tennessee and Kentucky. Alabama's resume is better, with a road win at LSU, but the Tide have just one other top 25 win.

Looking deeper into the one-loss picture, Oregon, after USC and Washington's recent losses, now has one top 25 win. Kansas State's only wins versus top 25 teams are against the Big 12's two Oklahoma schools.

The obvious two-fold arguments against Florida's national title candidacy make them a practical afterthought for the Harris Poll and Coaches Poll voters: the fact that the Gators didn't win their own division in their own conference, and the fact that they lost their only head-to-head matchup against the SEC championship participants/other title game contenders.

There's precedent in the BCS annals for overriding both of those presumptive disqualifiers. In 2001, Nebraska went to the title game Rose Bowl despite losing the Big 12 North to Colorado. In 2008, Oklahoma was No. 1 in the BCS before the bowls, despite losing to Texas in Dallas. And of course, last year, Alabama took advantage of its title shot even though it lost in Tuscaloosa to LSU and failed to win the SEC West.

However, after the indignation that resulted in the Alabama/LSU rematch a year ago, voters were likely going to do everything in their power to prevent a non-division winner from potentially playing for the title again. Also, while Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel has improved immensely in 2012, the offense he leads will never be confused with predecessors at the position in Gainesville like Tim Tebow or Danny Wuerffel. Thus, the fact that Florida operates like a Big Ten team with a power rushing attack led by Mike Gillislee and a strong defense has also worked against it with voters. Part of the reason that Oklahoma's 2008 team jumped the Longhorns was that it was not only beating quality opposition, but did it by putting up obscene offensive totals.

In some alternate reality, Ohio State AD Gene Smith would have imposed a bowl ban for the Buckeyes after Jim Tressel's Memorial Day 2011 resignation for that season instead of having it imposed for 2012 by the NCAA. In that case, ESPN wouldn't have been able to naively pretend like Ohio State is somehow an anonymous, unranked team like it has since the BCS standings were first released.

This column could have been about the college football debate to end all debates in the BCS era: whether an undefeated Big Ten team in the ultimate down year for the conference should go to the title game over any of three one-loss SEC teams. Alas, the non-existent debate that should be happening in the next week is about teams' accomplishments. Florida certainly has accomplished enough.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 3:57 PM | Comments (0)

Numbers Don't Lie, But They Aren't Always Truthful

The road out of central Delaware is long. Longer still when you're driving alone and your son's football team just got knocked out of the NCAA tournament after a 57-point trouncing. There is little to do other than to search out license plates from each of the 50 states, play those CDs your wife won't let you listen to when she's in the car, and reflect on all you have, which is apropos on a trip during Thanksgiving week.

Passing through radio markets that complained of Andrew Bynum's knee, Mark Sanchez's arm, and Ilya Kovalchuk's St. Petersburg address, I had much to be thankful for. Walmart would be open on Thanksgiving night, Hostess was in mediation to save Twinkees, and I was heading back to the home of two of professional sports' hottest records book chases, as Tom Brady looked for his 43rd consecutive game throwing a touchdown pass and Rajon Rondo his 37th consecutive with double-digit assists.

Never mind that six weeks ago I couldn't tell you who held the NFL record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass, and six days ago I didn't even realize anyone was counting such arcane things as consecutive games with double-digit assists. But the prominence of individual achievement within the guise of team sport was never more shamelessly exhibited than by Celtics coach Doc Rivers in Detroit last Sunday.

When Rivers learned through a broadcast duo that Rondo was holding at 6 assists and his 33-game double-digit assist streak digging its grave as the clock wound down, he reinserted his point guard with 8:40 remaining. Granted, the 14-point deficit at the time was not insurmountable, but things didn't improve over the next four minutes as the Pistons went on a 13-8 run, and that's when sublime met ridiculous. With Rondo stuck on 8 assists, Rivers called a timeout and instructed his squad, "If we can get him two more, let's do it."

They did, and in a selfish act of unselfishness, Rondo's assist streak escaped Detroit to live another day, ensuring it a spot on my list of the ten most ridiculous individual record shams in the history of sports. All that's left is to figure out which of these it should replace:

* Willie Mays' selection to the 1973 All-Star Game with a batting average of .214 and 4 homers, making him the second player in MLB history to become a 20-time All-Star.

* Vinny Testaverde's insertion into the final game of the 2006 NFL season. With a 10-point lead and the clock running inside of 2:00, Testaverde throws a TD pass on 1st-and-goal from the 6, marking his 20th consecutive season with at least one TD pass, a new NFL record.

* Nykesha Sales on crutches, starting a 1998 game against Villanova and being allowed to score an uncontested two points to become UConn's all-time leading women's scorer.

* Rafael Palmeiro's 1999 Gold Glove at first base, despite playing only 28 games at the position.

* Each and every one of Brett Favre's 45 starts after the Corey Webster interception in the 2008 NFC Championship Game, which should have ended both his playing days and his consecutive starts streak at 252.

* The three bullpen calls to Dave Righetti during the meaningless final series of the 1986 season. Two appearances were for only the final out, including one with a 5-run lead. Righetti saved all three to establish a new MLB single-season saves record.

* Atlanta Hawks guard Bobby Sura's 2004 quest to get his third straight triple-double, requiring his teammates to feed him rebound opportunities and ultimately culminating in his rebound of his own intentionally-missed shot.

* Gordy Howe's 1997 one-shift appearance for the Detroit Vipers of the International Hockey League, making him the only six-decade professional hockey player ever.

* "Sir Jack" Taylor's 108-shot, 138-point assault on NCAA men's basketball sensibilities last Tuesday night as his Grinnell College teammates stood idly by.

* Brett Favre's 2002 flop at the feet of the oncoming Michael Strahan, giving the latter the NFL single-season sack record that still stands today.

Rondo's advance on the record books is now all the rave on local sports airwaves. At home against the Spurs on Wednesday night, he collected another 15 assists. Within Celtics Nation, Magic Johnson's 46-game double-digit assist streak has taken on the ethereal lore of Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak, so should the two be in the same conversation elsewhere?

DiMaggio got four or five chances a game to accomplish something a Big-League hitter does less than 3 of every 10 times on average. Statistically, there was only a 24% chance that Joltin' Joe would fail to get one hit in any four at bat stretch.

On the other hand, a point guard handles the ball on virtually every possession, and the C's are averaging 95 of those a game. Setting aside his 10 minutes of bench time and the 11 possessions that end with him taking the shot himself, Rondo has maybe 64 possessions. Turnovers take away assist opportunities the same way walks took away DiMaggio opportunities, so they cancel. Throw in the fact that the C's are shooting 48%, only 57% of all NBA baskets come from assists, and 20% of all shot attempts lead to fouls that void assists, and it sure seems harder to receive credit for 10 assists in 64 NBA possessions than for one hit in 4 MLB at bats.

Then there's the subjective factor. You knew when DiMaggio got a hit as the event was pretty black-and-white. Aside from an occasional error-vs.-hit ruling, there was no place for DiMaggio to hide. Not so for Rondo. Since Magic Johnson's arrival into the NBA, official scorers have been handing out assists like they were candy on Halloween. The assist event does not abide by the same high standard we use to adjudicate pornography; namely, we don't necessarily know it when we see it.

And finally, there's the matter of accountability. DiMaggio's streak went from May 15 to July 16, 1941. Magic Johnson's streak, which has been alternately reported as 44 and 46 games, is said to have started late in the 1982-83 season, and ended during the 1983-84 season. Game box scores substantiate 10 or more assists for Johnson in each of the first 41 games of the 1983-84 season, but he recorded only 9 assists on April 12, 1983, the last game of the 1982-83 season. So, which is the real streak: 46 games, 44 games, 41 games?

As we settle in to watch tonight's NBA action, there will be a decided enclave of us wearing our greens and whites who will have one eye on the court and one on the scorer's table. We'll root for Rondo to get his 10 assists. Beyond that, we're not sure where to go. We'll just wait for someone with a pencil in his hand to tell us Rondo did something real good.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 12:17 PM | Comments (0)

November 23, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 12 (Pt. 2)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Minnesota @ Chicago (no line)

Minnesota was off in Week 11, and has had plenty of time to prepare for a crucial NFC North showdown in Chicago. At 6-4, the Vikes trail the Bears and Packers by one game.

"We'll have to get Adrian Peterson 23-27 touches," Leslie Frazier. "That's easier said than done, except on a Lake Minnetonka sex cruise.

"They call Peterson 'All Day.' They call Cutler 'May Day,' because the Bears can start thinking offseason when he gets hurt."

The Bears were pounded last Monday night 32-7 in San Francisco as Cutler was out with a concussion. Backup quarterback Jason Campbell was sacked 6 times and passed for only 107 yards in the loss.

"Cutler has a concussion," Lovie Smith said, "and we've lost our identity. Dennis Green once famously stated that 'the Bears were who we thought they were.' Well, right now, we can't remember who we thought we were. Other teams, however, do remember what they thought we were — Super Bowl contenders."

Cutler returns, and it's clear his head is on straight when he admonishes his offensive line for endangering Campbell's life.

Chicago wins, 19-16.

Oakland @ Cincinnati (-6)

The Bengals whipped the struggling Chiefs 28-6 last week, as A.J. Green had 6 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. Former Bengal Carson Palmer will make his return to Cincinnati.

"Carson was a welcome addition to the Raiders," Marvin Lewis said. "He was a welcome subtraction from the Bengals. I think even as a Raider he'll find he doesn't want to be in Cincinnati. Are we better off with or without him? You do the math."

The Raiders are 3-7 after last week's 38-17 loss to the Chiefs in the Black Hole. Oakland has lost their last two games by a combined margin of 56 points.

"If you're taking baseball," Dennis Allen said, "the Oakland team gets an 'A.' If you're talking football, the Oakland team gets an 'F.' And every single person in this organization gets the same grade. That's called a 'cluster F.'

Cincinnati wins, 35-27.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (Even)

The Steelers may have seen their hopes for the NFC North crown go down the drain in a 13-10 loss on Sunday night to the Ravens. At 6-4, Pittsburgh trails Baltimore by two games.

"We'll be starting Charlie Batch in Cleveland," Mike Tomlin said. "We're down to our third-string QB. But that's why you have three quarterbacks. Quarterbacks are a lot like time outs — sometimes you have to use all three.

"I'm been criticized for not being a very wise game manager. I've been outsmarted by several coaches. I decided to get in on the act last Sunday against Baltimore, when I tried to outsmart myself."

The Browns lost 23-20 to the Cowboys in overtime in Dallas, falling to 2-8 in the AFC North. Five of Cleveland's losses this year have come by seven points or less.

"I understand that Pittsburgh has signed Plaxico Burress," Pat Shurmur said. "Given his history, I think the Steelers, or anyone, for that matter, should tread carefully when giving Burress a "shot.'"

Despite his injury, Ben Roethlisberger contributes mightily to the effort when he corners Batch in the bathroom and whips out his pen, and scribbles some detailed notes on the tendencies of the Cleveland defense.

Pittsburgh wins, 16-13.

Buffalo @ Indianapolis (-3½)

The Bills beat the Dolphins 19-14 in Buffalo last Thursday and now find themselves with a 4-6 record, matching that of Miami and New York in the AFC East, well behind the division-leading 7-3 Patriots.

"You can say were in a tie for last place," Chan Gailey said. "I prefer to say we're tied for second place. And believe you me, the Buffalo franchise has loads of experience when it comes to being second.

"But I'm extremely optimistic about where this franchise is headed. I firmly believe there's a Super Bowl trophy with our name on it. In fact, there's four of them — two in Dallas, one in New York, and one in Washington."

Indianapolis wins, 27-21.

Denver @ Kansas City (+7)

The Broncos took complete control of the AFC West, subduing San Diego last week to establish a commanding three-game lead in the division. After an early interception, Peyton Manning threw for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns.

"I'm just glad to place my name in the long line of memorable Denver quarterbacks," Manning said, "most notably John Elway. Elway was known for his 'quick release,' particularly when he unloaded Tim Tebow to the Jets."

The lowly Chiefs lost 28-6 to Cincinnati last week, and are now 1-9, with the AFC West-leading Broncos coming to town. Kansas City is 0-5 at Arrowhead Stadium, joining the Jaguars as the only teams winless at home.

"Several Chiefs fans wore all black to the game," Romeo Crenel said. "Apparently, they did this to express their frustration with the way the season's gone. It's the first time anyone's shown up in Arrowhead with a purpose."

Denver wins, 26-9.

Seattle @ Miami (+3)

The 6-4 Seahawks are firmly in the playoff hunt, and know they can't afford a let down in Miami, where the 4-6 Dolphins await.

"We're looking forward to our trip to Miami" Pete Carroll said. "When you couple the sun of Miami with the rain of Seattle, you get a rainbow. And we plan to let the Dolphins 'taste the rainbow' with a healthy serving of Marshawn Lynch. 'Beast-iality' may be frowned upon in Miami, but I'm afraid Marshawn still plans to have his way with the Dolphins.

"In other news, I'll be reunited with Reggie Bush for the first time since our days at USC. Those were the good old days, back when I put the 'pay' in 'paying a visit.'"

The Dolphins have lost three in a row after a 4-3 start to fall to 4-6. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill will face a stern test in front of a Seattle defense that ranks fourth in the NFL against the pass and second in sacks.

"This game should tell us a lot about ourselves," Tannehill said. "Unfortunately, it may be the truth."

Seattle wins, 27-10.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-1½)

Matt Ryan threw 5 interceptions last week against the Cardinals, but the Falcons somehow prevailed in a 23-19 win, avoiding their second consecutive loss after a 9-0 start.

"I've always dreamed of being compared to Kurt Warner," Matt Ryan said. "That dream came to fruition, because not since Warner has a quarterback thrown to Cardinals with such conviction. Check the box score. 'Arizona' was my second-leading receiver.

"Of course, if I play like that in the post-season, we can expect our playoff run to be quite 'curt.'"

The Buccaneers stunned the home-standing Panthers as Tampa erased an 11-point, fourth quarter deficit to force overtime, then won on Josh Freeman's touchdown pass to Dallas Clark. Greg Schiano and his squad now face the biggest game of their season against the 9-1 Falcons.

"We plan to play our game," Schiano said. "Many people take issue with some of my tactics. That's hurtful. Those people need to take sensitivity training at the institution of my choosing, 'Buc U.' If a classroom's not their thing, they can choose to take online training. In other words, go 'Buc Themselves.'"

It's gut-check time for the Falcons. Are they a true Super Bowl contender, or is their fast start simply a prelude to an early playoff exit? Mike Smith goes against character and rolls the dice, opening up the Atlanta offense early, while the defense does its job late, stifling a late Tampa drive.

Atlanta wins, 35-23.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3)

The Jaguars nearly stunned the Texans last week, going into overtime before falling 43-37. Chad Henne, in for an injured Blaine Gabbert, passed for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, but was topped by Matt Schaub's 527 yards and 5 TDs.

"Finally," Mike Munchak said, "an opponent had a legitimate reason for running up the score on us."

With the Texans running away with the AFC South, the 4-6 Titans can pin their playoff hopes on a wildcard spot. That would mean they would likely need to win no less than five of their remaining six games.

"I'm finally healthy," Jake Locker said, "just in time for a playoff push. I've got a reputation a player who's often injured. That's why I'm called the 'Hurt Locker.'"

The Jags may have used a season's worth of offense last week against Houston. That doesn't leave much left for the Titans.

Tennessee wins, 23-17.

Baltimore @ San Diego (-1½)

The Ravens edged the Steelers 13-10 in Pittsburgh to take a two-game lead in the AFC North race. In a fierce defensive struggle, Baltimore forced three Steeler turnovers and held on as poor clock management ultimately doomed Pittsburgh.

"Guess what?" John Harbaugh said. "Using the letters of 'Mike Tomlin,' you can almost spell 'time out.' I'll give you 40 seconds to figure out why you can't."

The struggling Chargers dropped to 4-6 in the AFC West, losing 30-23 in Denver, as their hopes for the playoffs were all but dashed. Peyton Manning outgunned Philip Rivers, and the Denver defense stifled the Chargers, holding them to 13 first downs and forcing 3 turnovers.

"Some people say we've given up on the season," Rivers said. "That's ludicrous. If I've thrown in the towel, it was probably the only pass I threw with any conviction."

"The NFL revoked Ed Reed's one-game suspension. Now, he'll be playing on Sunday, albeit $50,000 poorer. Hopefully, Reed's learned his lesson. If he has, then he's been 'Ed-ified.'"

Rivers and the Chargers show up, and play their best game of the year. San Diego wins 27-23, moving one step closer to an 8-8 record.

St. Louis @ Arizona (-4)

The Cardinals jumped out to a 13-0 lead in Atlanta last week, only to see their hopes for the upset fall in a 23-19 loss. The Cards have now lost six in a row after a 4-0 start o the season, and trail the 7-2-1 49ers in the NFC West.

"We picked off Matt Ryan five times," Ken Whisenhunt said. "I can't imagine one of my quarterbacks throwing 5 interceptions. But I can imagine all of them throwing five."

The Rams dropped to 3-6-1 with a 27-13 loss to the Jets last week and now sit in last in the NFC West.

"It's embarrassing to lose to the Jets," Chris Long said. "Almost as embarrassing as it would be to play for them."

Ken Whisenhunt has three quarterbacks from which to choose a starter. Whatever his choice, he'll be left which two sitting Cardinals, and one sitting duck.

St. Louis wins, 17-13.

San Francisco @ New Orleans (-1)

The Saints host the 49ers in a rematch of last year's divisional round playoff game, won 36-32 by San Francisco in a wild shootout at Candlestick Park.

"That was a historic day for both teams," Jim Harbaugh said. "It was our first playoff win since 2002. For the Saints, it was the last time their coaching staff was on the sideline in its entirety.

"We plan to attack the Saints' defense where it's weak. Ironically, that's in its heart. The New Orleans' defense is a lot like a healthy heart — it's 'beatin' on a regular basis."

After an 0-4 start, the Saints have won five of six, including three in a row, and now stand 5-5 in the NFC South. They'll be out for revenge against the 49ers.

"Now would be the time for a Gregg Williams' motivational speech," Drew Brees said. "I don't think we'll get one, because they 'cost' too much."

Harbaugh says he may play both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, a decision that would be strictly "platoon-ic."

San Francisco racks up 478 yards on offense, and the 49ers subdue the Saints, 34-27.

Green Bay @ NY Giants (-1½)

The Packers and Giants tangle in the second of two rematches from last year's divisional round playoffs. The Packers beat the Lions in Detroit 24-20 last week despite two missed field goals by Mason Crosby, who has struggled as of late. Crosby is 11-of-18 for the season.

"Eli Manning has had his troubles as of late," Aaron Rodgers said, "and so has Mason Crosby. There's a simple solution to their woes — a trip to the roof of their local large, discount retailer not named Walmart. Then, they could say they were 'on Target.'

"We're just happy to be heading East, far away from Seattle. That's the only place where the officials run the West Coast 'offense.'"

Two straight losses have left the Giants at 6-4, and brought into question their viability as a favorite in the NFC. In those two losses, Manning has thrown three interceptions and no touchdown passes.

"Not only is this a rematch from last year's playoffs," Manning said, "it could be a preview of this year's playoffs. That's assuming we qualify."

The G-Men work over the Packers' offensive line, and Manning gets back in the groove.

New York wins, 30-27.

Carolina @ Philadelphia (-2½)

With Michael Vick out with a concussion, the Nick Foles era began for the Eagles with a devastating 31-6 loss to the Redskins in Washington. Andy Reid has been defiant as the calls for his ouster mount.

"I refuse to resign," Reid said. "Quitting is not an option. I only wish my players felt the same way.

"Quarterback was supposed to be our strength this year. It's been far from that. Cam Newton claims to be Superman, but my quarterbacks have been playing like 'S' this year."

The Panthers blew a late lead last week in an overtime loss to the Buccaneers. Carolina is now 2-8, and owners of the NFC's worst record.

"Philadelphia once was the nation's capitol," Ron Rivera said. "On Monday night, with Reid and myself leading our struggling teams, the city will again be the 'hot seat.'"

Eagles win, 26-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:32 PM | Comments (0)

Jack Taylor's Bogus Journey

You've probably heard about tiny Grinnell College's Jack Taylor going for an NCAA record 138 points earlier this week against Faith Baptist Bible College. "Neat!" you might have thought. "He must be really good, he should transfer to D1," you might have thought. But it was not neat, and Taylor's record has more in common with Kazakshtan beating Thailand 52-1 in ice hockey than it has with Wilt Chamberlain's 100-point game. Here are six facts about the game and Grinnell's basketball "philosophy."

1. Drive around any decent-sized city until you find a full-court game with adults being played. Chances are, those guys you see are better than the basketball team at Faith Baptist. I say this not to be mean to Faith Baptist, just stating a fact. They don't play in the NCAA or even the NAIA, but something called the NCCAA (National Christian College Athletic Association). I'm the biggest college sports guru I know, and I hadn't even heard of the NCCAA until a few months ago while researching a different article.

They have less than 600 students, and none of them, I feel safe in saying, chose Faith Baptist for basketball-related reasons. These are a dozen or so random guys who like to shoot around against a team that is specifically designed to humiliate such teams.

2. Speaking of that design, this is not the first time in recent years that Grinnell has attracted attention for mondo bozo stats. Last year, Grinnell's Griffin Lentsch scored 89 in a game and it made ESPN.com. Lentsch played against Faith Baptist, too. He scored 7 points on three shots. He did not start.

3. The Grinnell game plan was this, and they run a similar MO when playing any other overmatched team: designate a guy to break all the scoring records he can. Keep him in the game as much as possible, and do not let him play defense. Do not even let him cross over to the defensive side of the court. He needs to be available for baseball passes when the other team misses. Other players should shoot very sparingly and indeed, there were many instances of Taylor's teammates passing up wide open layups to get it to him, usually behind the arc.

4. This strategy is pretty much admitted by the charlatan Head Coach of Grinnell, David Arsenault. As Deadspin points out, Arsenault actively touts such a system, and that's not all. He hawks it for money, via books and videos. What a better way to get your product out there than to orchestrate ludicrous individual performances in this team game and wait for the media to swoop in?

5. Arsenault's system is this, again via Deadspin: "94S + 47 3's + 33%OR + 25SD + 32 TO's = W

The 'Formula for Success' has withstood the test of time. Since 1996, whenever the Pioneers have attempted 94 shots, with half of those shots from behind the arc, offensive rebounded 33% of their missed shot attempts, taken 25 more shots than their opponent and forced the opposition into committing 32 turnovers, they have won at nearly a 95% clip."

This can only work if the team you are playing sucks. Against competent opposition, jacking 47 threes is pretty risky, you will likely not force them into such a high amount of turnovers, and you obviously cannot play 4-on-5 on defense like Grinnell did against Faith Baptist.

Arsenault's system is actually a scam in the classic sense. Have you seen classified ads on how you can make big bucks from home just stuffing envelopes, send us $5 and we'll give you the secret? Then you find the secret is to take out a bunch of classified ads asking marks to send you $5.

Arsenault's scam works much the same way: Buy my books and DVDs, and I'll show you how to rape your inferior opposition in such a way that the national media takes note, and then you too can monetize the publicity.

6. Just how embedded is Arsenault's system? The announcers were speculating during pre-game that Taylor would be setting records tonight (he shot 5-of-18 and 6-of-23 in Grinnell's previous two games, clearly a man destined to change basketball as we know it). The below tidbits from Tyler Burns, who mercifully watched the game tape so I don't have to and hence throw my laptop against the wall in disgust):

"The announcer actually said that Grinnell will look on their schedule for their weaker opponents and do everything they can to run up the score and break records. This is all within the game plan. One tactic the announcer mentioned was called 'The Bomb Squad.' If Grinnell’s opponent gets into the double bonus, Grinnell will sub in five freshmen players, foul their opponent immediately once the ball is in play, send them to the line, then sub the freshmen players out to put their scorers back in on offense. This takes almost no time off the clock, giving their starters as many offensive possessions as possible. To win the game? No, not necessarily. To break records.

"Every single person in that gym–the players, the announcers, the coaches, the fans–were hell-bent on setting records during this game. The entire flow was completely fixed to feed Jack Taylor the ball on every single possession. The announcer was even counting down the record for most points in a HALF. Who cares about that record? Grinnell does. It was weird."

"Weird" is the very, very kindest word I can think of to describe the mockery. This is the most carefully-engineered and therefore egregious act of unsportsmanship I have ever heard of.

Last year, North Carolina was second in Division I in scoring, with 82 points per game. If there was any justice, the NCAA would mandate that UNC play Grinnell, using Grinnell's tactics. And foul Jack Taylor hard. No. Foul David Arsenault hard.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 4:57 PM | Comments (7)

November 21, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Thanksgiving Games

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Houston @ Detroit (+3)

The Texans were pushed to the limit last week against the Jaguars before prevailing 43-37 in overtime. Matt Schaub passed for 527 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Texans face the 4-6 Lions on Thursday in the Texans first appearance in a Thanksgiving Day game.

"It's amazing that Schaub passed for 527 yards against the Jaguars," Gary Kubiak said. "It's even more amazing that he needed to.

"How does one of the NFL's top-ranked defenses give up 37 points to one of the league's worst offenses? Maybe we got a little cocky. It seems that Wade Phillips isn't the only Texan with an oversized head."

The Lions hope to rebound after last week's narrow 24-20 loss to Green Bay. Inconsistent play from Matthew Stafford again plagued the Lions, and he'll likely be challenged by an aggressive Houston defense.

"It's a day meant to be thankful," Jim Schwartz said. "And I am. I'm thankful that our season isn't more in shambles.

"We haven't won a Thanksgiving Day game since 2003. Stafford and turkey aren't the only 'easy pickings' on Thanksgiving."

The Lions jump on the Texans early, taking a 10-0 first quarter lead. But the rushing of Arian Foster and the calm leadership of Matt Schaub spark a Houston comeback. And the Texans, much like Matt Millen, slowly, methodically, and painfully bury the Lions.

Houston wins, 34-27.

Washington @ Dallas (-3)

The Redskins whipped the Eagles 31-6 last week, as Robert Griffin III was nearly flawless. RG3 was 14-of-15 for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns, posting a perfect 158.3 passer rating on the day.

"I think the Philadelphia defense showed why Griffin was considered a 'can't-miss' prospect," Mike Shanahan said. "

"I'm not sure the Cowboys can stop him. There's only one way to contain Griffin, and that's to put him in a Jason Garrett's offense."

The Cowboys squeaked by against Cleveland with a narrow 23-20 overtime win. At 5-5, Dallas trails the Giants by a single game in the NFC East.

"It wasn't pretty," Tony Romo said, "but it was effective. Here in the 'Big D,' we don't worry about style points. I can't say the same for Jerry Jones. It's Jerry's goal in life not to look bad. No matter how well he's dressed, he still finds a way to do just that."

Do the Cowboys have an answer for Griffin? No, but they do have a question for him: can I have your autograph?

Washington wins, 27-24.

New England @ NY Jets (+7)

The Patriots pummeled the Colts last week in Foxboro 59-24, as the New England defense forced 4 turnovers, including 3 Andrew Luck turnovers. The 6-3 Pats lead the AFC East race by a commanding three-game cushion over the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins.

"Luck has a bright future in this league," Tom Brady said. "He's the sexy pick for the AFC Offensive Rookie Of The Year. And speaking of 'sexy picks,' I was voted one of People magazine's sexiest men. Tim Tebow would kill for a vote of any kind, particularly a vote of confidence.

"Like the Jets, there's a lot of 'finger-pointing' on this Patriot team. Unlike the Jets, we point fingers vertically, not horizontally."

The Jets could shake up the East race with a win on Thanksgiving night in front of a national audience tuning in on NBC. The Jets put a tumultuous week behind them with a solid 27-13 win in St. Louis.

"This could be the start of something big," Rex Ryan said. "Unfortunately, that 'start' could mean the 'beginning' of the end.

"I'm sure Bill Belichick has acquired some recent bootleg videos to assist in his deviant preparations. So have I, but they have nothing to do with football."

Brady will be without Rob Gronkowski, his go-to receiver. Unfortunately, the Jets don't have a go-to anything.

Brady throws for 2 scores, and Sanchez commits 2 costly turnovers.

New England wins, 24-20.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 4:45 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 36

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished 15th at Homestead, well ahead of a faltering Jimmie Johnson, and earned his first Sprint Cup championship. Keselowski finished 39 points ahead of Clint Bowyer and 40 ahead of Johnson.

"We saw a blow out," Keselowski said, "and a bow out, all in the same race. This is likely the first of more titles to come. I've already coined a slogan for our quest for the 2013 Cup: '2 For 2.'

"Johnson tried to get into my head, and he did, easily. As a five-time Cup winner, he knew exactly what it took to get into the mind of a champion."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson suffered a loose lug nut penalty, followed by mechanical issues at Homestead and finished 36th, unable to challenge Brad Keselowski for the championship. Johnson finished third in the final point standings, 40 points behind first-time champ Keselowski.

"When I said we needed the 'raise our game,'" Johnson said, "I wasn't referring to being 'jacked up' in the garage. But I'll take my misfortune and deal with it. That's life. Or, as a driver with five Cup titles would say, 'C'est la V.'

"Keselowski earned the title fair and square. But if not pit errors and mechanical issues that resulted in a 32nd and 36th to end the season, things would have been different. As it is, I've got to 'hand it' to Keselowski, which I did."

3. Clint Bowyer &mdash Bowyer finished second to Jeff Gordon in the Ford EcoBoost 400, posting his ninth top-five finish of the year. Bowyer finished second in the final Sprint Cup point standings, 39 out of first.

"Once again," Bowyer said, "I couldn't catch Gordon. That's okay. The offseason will give me ample time to plan my vengeance down to every detail. After all, I want to 'exact' revenge."

4. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished 21st at Homestead on an up-and-down day for Hendrick Motorsports, as Jeff Gordon took the checkered flag and Jimmie Johnson finished 36th. Kahne ended the year fourth in the point standings, 55 behind Brad Keselowski.

"NASCAR wives and girlfriend were having babies right and left this year," Kahne said. "Even Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson got in on the act, because a rivalry was 'born.'"

5. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished 24th at Homestead, ending a disappointing Chase For the up in fifth, 62 out of first.

"Congratulations to Brad Keselowski," Hamlin said. "And congratulations to car owner Roger Penske. I'm not sure if Penske is on Twitter, but if he were, his message to Keselowski would have to be '@ a boy!"

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 18th at Homestead, piloting the No. 17 Best Buy Ford in his final race for Roush Fenway Racing. He finished sixth in the point standings, 74 out of first.

"My car said 'Best Buy,'" Kenseth said, "but it should have said 'Good Bye.'"

7. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished fifth in the Ford EcoBoost 400, his 12th top-five finish of the year. He ended the year fifth in the point standings, 68 out of first.

"It was an eventful year at Roush Fenway Racing," Biffle said. "There was a lot of movement within the company. There's a perfectly good explanation for Matt Kenseth's departure; Carl Edward's 'disappearance' is another story."

8. Kyle Busch — Busch finished fourth in the Ford EcoBoost 400, posting his 12th top-five of the year and eighth of the Chase.

"One day," Busch said, "I'm going to put it all together. Actually, I often put it together for one day; it's one season I have trouble with."

9. Jeff Gordon — Gordon won for the second time this season, beating Clint Bowyer to the stripe to win the Ford EcoBoost 400. Gordon finished 10th in the point standings, 97 out of first.

"That's like adding insult to insult for Bowyer," Gordon said. "I didn't 'make his day,' but I did 'make his day worse.'"

10. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished eighth at Homestead, following his win at Phoenix with his 14th top-10 result of the year. He finished eighth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 79 out of first.

"Brad Keselowski is a worthy champion," Harvick said, "and one that is popular among fellow drivers. I think I speak for everyone, especially my former teammate Clint Bowyer, when I say that Keselowski, unlike Jeff Gordon, got what was coming to him."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:54 AM | Comments (0)

November 20, 2012

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Another entry in the Brian Billick quote hall: "Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you for even trying." Uh, that's not quite how it goes.

* Following a scuffle near the sideline, Billick also mentioned that he saw "temperatures starting to flare." At least there's an explanation for that: sunspots.

* If Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden are trying to drive me crazy, they're doing a fine job. I'm not going to address this week's broadcast, because it would get me upset all over again and take up the whole column.

* Last week, Clete Blakeman's officiating crew oversaw an embarrassing clock error, losing over a minute of game time. This week, the same crew was on hand for a clock error in Houston. Like Blakeman, Ed Hochuli does a great impersonation of the replacement refs: "The ruling on the field stands. Although, as I said, it's not a reviewable play." You just reviewed it, champ.

* I have mixed feelings about Ed Reed's suspension for repeated fouls against defenseless receivers. I like that the NFL is suspending someone, because 4- and 5-digit fines are pointless. I don't like that Reed was singled out to send a message, because he's a big name. I suppose overall it's a move in the right direction, that being player safety. [Update: Reed won his appeal with the league and will not be suspended. I guess maybe that's a move in the wrong direction.]

***

I don't understand how great coaches can screw up so badly on gameday. Andy Reid is one of the most successful coaches of this generation, but he seems incapable of game-day adjustments. The same was true of Tony Dungy. Right now, Exhibit A is the Steelers' Mike Tomlin.

This week's defeat against Baltimore resembled last year's playoff loss in Denver: ineffective play from an injured quarterback, and poor clock management in the second half. Pittsburgh's misuse of timeouts at the end of Sunday night's game made Jason Garrett look good by comparison. The Steelers wasted two precious timeouts in the third quarter, and Tomlin waited until 2:04 in the fourth to use his last one, repeatedly letting Baltimore run 35 to 40 seconds off between plays. The problem with waiting so long was that when Brett Keisel jumped offsides, the clock ran down to the two-minute warning without the Ravens having to run a play, costing Pittsburgh :40.

On a related note, when the Steelers got the ball back, why on earth did Rashard Mendenhall turn upfield instead of running out of bounds? He probably gained three extra yards, but he lost 20 seconds. Jonathan Dwyer is clearly the best player in that backfield right now, and it's actually kind of weird that Mendenhall still gets to play regularly. But Tomlin won't sit his players down, even when he clearly needs to.

Byron Leftwich looked great on the first drive of the game, but an early rib injury rendered him totally ineffective afterwards. Leftwich repeatedly underthrew open receivers, and cost the Steelers their biggest game of the season, Ravens at home. What is it about Tomlin and injured, ineffective QBs? You're supposed to be the leader of this team, Coach. Everyone wants to play. It's your job to tell some of them they don't get to.

We saw the same thing last year, when a banged-up Ben Roethlisberger absorbed ridiculous levels of punishment against the 49ers, and again when — clearly not at 100% — Ben under-performed in a shocking playoff loss to Denver. That's not loyalty to your players. It's loyalty to one player, and disrespect to all the rest of them. Step up and be a leader, Coach Tomlin. If the quarterbacks run the team, why are you even there?

Moving on the power rankings, and as always, brackets show previous rank. Also, a wish I think we can all get behind: peace in the Middle East. Both sides need to end the violence.

1. Houston Texans [1] — You've surely heard that Matt Schaub passed for 527 yards in their comeback victory against Jacksonville. But did you remember that the week before, Schaub passed for a total of 95 yards? He threw for 5.5 times as much yardage on Sunday. Between this performance and Ben Roethlisberger's injury, Schaub probably becomes the favorite to earn a spot as the third quarterback on the AFC's Pro Bowl roster (behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady). Houston finished the game with 640 yards and 39 first downs.

2. Denver Broncos [2] — Von Miller posted his second 3-sack game in the last three weeks, and now leads the AFC (13). Willis McGahee left Sunday's game with a knee injury. It was initially thought not to be serious, but Monday revealed a torn MCL and a fracture.

3. San Francisco 49ers [8] — After their huge Monday night win, head coach Jim Harbaugh was noncommittal about his quarterback situation. A reporter asked, "Is Colin [Kaepernick] your starting quarterback going forward?" Harbaugh answered, "We'll see. Usually tend to go with the guy who's got the hot hand, and we've got two quarterbacks that have got a hot hand. Thought Colin did an outstanding job, thought he did a great job, poise in the pocket, pushing the ball, throwing with accuracy, did a nice job running the game plan. Everything he did was exemplar [sic]."

4. New England Patriots [4] — The big news is that Rob Gronkowski broke his forearm. Early reports indicate he might be out for 4-6 weeks, basically the rest of the regular season. Coming into Week 11, five teams were favored by at least a touchdown: Houston (-15), New England (-9½), Atlanta (-9), Denver (-9), and Dallas (-7). All of them won, but three escaped in nail-biters, and only the Patriots beat the spread ... which they did by 25½. The Patriots actually won by more than the other four teams combined.

5. Green Bay Packers [6] — Last season, the Packers averaged 405.1 yards per game on offense and 411.6 allowed on defense. This season, they average 345.5 offensively and 343.9 allowed. Totaled up, that's 128.5 yards per game fewer this year. The Packers have won five in a row since their wake-up loss to the Colts on October 7.

6. Atlanta Falcons [5] — Howie Long: "To say that Atlanta's resilient would be an understatement." This team keeps winning games it should lose. Does it mean the Falcons are mediocre that they keep falling behind against teams like the Panthers, Raiders, and Cardinals? Or does it mean they're great that they keep overcoming adversity and doing enough to win? It's not very often you see a team lose the turnover battle by five and leave with a victory.

7. Chicago Bears [3] — Out-gained 249-35 in the first half, and mailed it in from there. Chicago's defense had forced multiple turnovers in every game this season, but it didn't generate any against the 49ers. You hear people talk about "throwing out the game film". That's appropriate in this case. You can't scout Chicago's defense based on this game. Every player on that unit had his worst game of the season (except maybe Brian Urlacher, because he was hurt the first few games).

Near the end of the third quarter, Devin Hester ran one of the worst punt returns in NFL history. He was generously given forward progress that made it a loss of nine, but it looked to me like he ran 15 yards backwards before the tackle. He later fumbled a kickoff and fielded a punt at his own 4-yard line. Chicago's performance was a disaster in all three phases. The most notable, though, has to be the offensive line. Jason Campbell played poorly, but he was under constant pressure. The Bears now rank 30th in yards per game, dropping under 300 (299.4).

8. Baltimore Ravens [9] — They're 3-0 since the bye, including two road wins inside the division. The Ravens only gained 200 yards and 12 first downs against Pittsburgh, but they got a special teams touchdown and two turnovers to set up the 13-10 victory. Baltimore's leading receivers this season:

1. Anquan Boldin, 48
2. Ray Rice, 40
3. Dennis Pitta, 38
4. Torrey Smith, 32

Smith has more receiving touchdowns (7) than the rest of the team combined (6), but the Ravens need more consistency from him. In five of the team's 10 games, Smith had 2 or fewer receptions.

9. Seattle Seahawks [10] — Three of their next four games are on the road, but one is against the reeling Dolphins and another against the Bills in Toronto. If the Seahawks win either one, and sweep their remaining home games, they'll end up 10-6, and probably in the playoffs.

10. New Orleans Saints [11] — Handled their business in Oakland, but the defense managed to allow over 400 yards for the 10th game in a row. I know the TV people are excited about them getting back to .500, but to make the playoffs, they'll have to pass the Vikings, Buccaneers, Seahawks, and Cowboys, and they'll have to do it against this schedule: 49ers, at Falcons, at Giants, Bucs, at Cowboys, Panthers. Do you see five wins in those six games? I can't imagine a 9-7 team making the playoffs in the NFC.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [12] — Nice two-minute drill from the league's most underappreciated offense. The Buccaneers, Texans, and Cowboys all trailed by double-digits this week before coming back to win in overtime. Also, it looked to me like Doug Martin broke the plane.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — The bright side: since they lost on Sunday night, maybe they won't associate those ghastly bumblebee jerseys with good luck and they'll stop wearing them for the rest of time.

13. New York Giants [13] — It's hard to believe the Cowboys might play to their potential and overtake New York in the NFC East, but looking at the Giants' schedule, you can understand why fans and analysts are considering the possibility. The Giants face three more opponents with winning records (GB, ATL, BAL), plus the Saints, a road game against a team that swept them last season (WAS), and a Week 17 matchup with the Eagles that might be meaningless by then.

14. Cincinnati Bengals [19] — Dominated the Chiefs in too many ways to list them all, and if the Steelers or Colts falter, Cincinnati could return to the playoffs. The Bengals haven't reached the postseason in consecutive years since 1981-82.

15. Dallas Cowboys [14] — We all know Tony Romo is a choker who can't play under pressure, but this week the Cowboys scored 17 fourth-quarter points and won in overtime. Fine, they shouldn't have needed a fifth quarter to get past the Browns, but for this team, it's a big deal to win the ones they're supposed to and play well at the end of a tight game. Dez Bryant (12 rec, 145 yds, TD) led the Cowboys in receiving yards for the second week in a row.

16. Minnesota Vikings [16] — At 6-4, Minnesota is very much in the playoff hunt, but a tough remaining schedule and losses to Seattle and Tampa mean the Vikings are a long shot. Speaking of that remaining schedule, however, Minnesota has four games left against the Bears and Packers. That could be good or bad, depending on how you look at it. I'm seeing it as bad.

17. Detroit Lions [17] — Calvin Johnson only has 3 TDs, but he's averaging even more yards per game (111.7) than he did last season (105.1), and leads the NFL by over 100. Johnson has gained over 125 receiving yards for three weeks in a row. With three more 125-yard performances in the last six games, he would tie Lance Alworth for most in a single season (8).

18. Indianapolis Colts [15] — Let's go easy on the hype for Andrew Luck, who this week tossed two INTs returned for touchdowns. He's thrown for a lot of yardage, because he's 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts, but Luck ranks 28th in passer rating, between Blaine Gabbert and Mark Sanchez. Seriously.

19. San Diego Chargers [18] — Lost five of their last six, but four of them were against pretty good teams (Saints, Bucs, Broncos twice) and none of them were blowouts. Kendall Reyes (2 sacks this week) subs out too often for my taste. Maybe the Chargers coaches see something I don't, but it seems like he should be on the field more often. I don't get why he's behind Vaughn Martin on the depth chart.

20. Washington Redskins [20] — Through the first 10 games of his pro career, Robert Griffin III has thrown for more yards than the opposing quarterback only twice. But he's also out-rushed the opponent's top RB seven times, including 1,000-yard rushers Doug Martin and Adrian Peterson. This week, RG3 became the first rookie in history to record a perfect passer rating (158.3), though he did so on only 15 attempts. Santana Moss' 61-yard touchdown grab in double coverage is one of the highlights of the year.

21. Tennessee Titans [23] — Chris Johnson's stats, first five games and last five:

Johnson has rushed for at least 90 yards in five straight, and he's now 6th in the NFL in rushing.

22. New York Jets [25] — Maybe they hadn't been distracted enough recently. With the Jets generating all sorts of gossipy headlines, the team went into St. Louis and took care of business. Next time they start to struggle, maybe Rex Ryan can announce a barefoot press conference or something.

23. Buffalo Bills [29] — Opposite of their Week 11 game, when the offense posted big numbers and they got shredded everywhere else. Against Miami, the Bills went 2/12 on third down and finished with just 281 yards, but they held Miami to 184 and got a great game from their special teams, including a punt return TD by Leodis McKelvin and a superb performance by rookie punter Shawn Powell. With the Bills up 19-14 and 4:42 left in the game, Powell punted from his own 47. He angled the ball out of bounds at the 1-yard line. That's about as perfect as a punt can be, 52 yards and down at the 1 with no help from the coverage team. Powell left Miami inside its own 20 five times, with no touchbacks. That kind of thing is the difference in close games.

24. Cleveland Browns [24] — 12th straight road loss. They were flagged for 12 penalties and 129 penalty yards against Dallas, including 8 for 109 yards in the second half and overtime.

25. St. Louis Rams [22] — Fourth straight game without a defensive takeaway. Fifth straight game without winning.

26. Carolina Panthers [26] — Another heart-breaking loss. They're 0-6 in games decided by 7 points or less, and they led in the fourth quarter in most of them.

27. Miami Dolphins [21] — Since 1986 — Jim Kelly's first season in Buffalo — the Dolphins have had a winning record 15 times, and in those 15 seasons, they have gone 5-10 in Buffalo. This year's Dolphins probably won't have a winning record, but a November night game in Buffalo was already a long shot.

Ryan Tannehill looked really bad on Thursday night (124 yds, 46.9 rating), bad enough that Miami probably needs dominant defensive performances to win with him. This offseason, though, the team desperately needs to add a credible deep threat at wide receiver. Give the young QB a chance.

28. Arizona Cardinals [30] — Three points about the Cardinals:

1. To lose when your defense generates six takeaways, you need a really bad offense. The Cardinals gained only 7 first downs and 178 yards against Atlanta.

2. Why do so many players stand around when there's a ball on the ground? How many times have you seen players literally walk away from a ball that was ruled a fumble? Sure, it might be an incomplete pass, but why not go to the effort of bending down and picking the ball up in case it's not? Jonathan Babineaux's 15-yard fumble return TD was probably the difference between winning and losing this week.

3. Another big game from LaRod Stephens-Howling. He'll probably go back to kick-returning and third down duties now that Beanie Wells is getting healthy, but it looks like he's the best RB on this roster. Statistical comparison of LSH vs. Wells, Ryan Williams, and William Powell combined:

Two of the three times Stephens-Howling has gotten 15 or more carries, he's rushed for 100 yards with a 5.0 average and a touchdown. Since Ken Whisenhunt took over as head coach 5½ years ago, the Cardinals only have 10 games in which a player rushed for 100 and scored a TD. That's 10 out of a possible 90 games, 11% of the time. Stephens-Howling has done it twice in the last month, 50% of the time. Don't bench the hot hand; give this guy a shot.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — This is the highest I've ranked them all season. The contrast between Chad Henne and Helpless Blaine Gabbert is night and day. Why did it take an injury to get Gabbert out of there? Meanwhile, running back Jalen Parmele showed more spark than Rashad Jennings, who still has yet to justify the hype. I would be surprised, but not shocked, if Jacksonville wins its next three in a row.

30. Philadelphia Eagles [27] — In Nick Foles' first start, Andy Reid had him drop back 50 times: 2 interceptions, 4 sacks, 21 completions, and 23 incomplete. LeSean McCoy also left the game with a concussion. It's not clear whether or not he'll go in Week 12, but rookie Bryce Brown is the fantasy handcuff.

31. Oakland Raiders [28] — Allowed at least 38 points for the third week in a row, and they have the worst scoring defense in the NFL (32.2 pts/gm). Carson Palmer is 3rd in the league in passing yardage (3,035), with his highest passer rating since 2007 (85.8).

32. Kansas City Chiefs [31] — Benched Matt Cassel this week. Does it matter? They don't have Len Dawson sitting on the bench.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)

November 19, 2012

The Sense of Stability

Quick, name the tallest mountain on Earth.

Before you Googled it, you probably thought of 29,029-foot-tall Mount Everest, but sorry, this is one of those trick questions. Mauna Kea, on Hawaii's big island, only rises about halfway to Everest's height above sea level at its peak. But if you slid down its mountainside, left the nearby shore, dove past the reefs, and plunged to the island's base at the seafloor, you would have descended 35,500 feet.

And somewhere down there, after falling from atop a mountain to the ocean's darkest depths, you would find what's left of Gene Chizik's Auburn career.

Nothing about Chizik's time on the Plains has been flat. An undefeated season as a defensive coordinator that did not result in a BCS Championship Game appearance. His own hiring being criticized by Charles Barkley as a racist travesty. The rise and sudden exit of a high school coach turned spread guru in Gus Malzahn. A team predicted to finish fifth in its SEC division winning the national title amid swirling rumors that its Heisman-winning best player had been shopped to the highest bidder.

And now, with that 2010 peak still visible in the rear view mirror, Chizik's 2012 squad faces all-but-certain defeat Saturday against Alabama. A loss to the Tide would close out a winless SEC schedule just two seasons removed from outright perfection.

To hear some tell it, Chizik was little more than a fortunate waterboy for Cam Newton. Yet, he returned to a stalled Auburn program after 2008, and within two years had changed its image and brought in the important pieces. It's difficult to write an honest account of Chizik's time at Auburn without weighing for both sides.

What do we expect anymore from major college football coaches? Many times, coaches must pass a test of their ceilings. Can the program reach its loftiest goals, typically a national championship, with this coach?

In Chizik's case, that question doesn't even need to be answered by extrapolation; the paint is still wet on his evidence.

But coaches are now graded by different criteria. For example, while college football games only fill three months of the year, recruiting can be a fan's year-round obsession. What measure could be a better litmus test for your program's state than whether top recruits want to play football there? At some points in the year, any top coach will be judged as much for winning the commitments of recruits as actual games.

If nothing else, the BCS has broadened the regionalism of college football to the national level. Whereas conversations of conference superiority were once saved for bowl season, the BCS has required the college football nation to consider each team's place in relation to the rest of the country. Hoping your team is in the mix for a BCS championship or at large berth? You better know your potential competition from coast to coast.

The problem with this one-criteria-fits-all evaluation of college coaches is that every job is a stacked deck. In the NFL, shared revenues, salary caps, and violent roster turnover even the playing field between jobs. Over just a few years, untenable positions can evolve into attractive ones.

But not in college football. Every program has advantages and disadvantages carved deep into their landscapes by time. Oklahoma, Ohio State, and USC are good jobs today for the same reasons they were good jobs 50 years ago. Cleaning house and installing a quality core group might work wonders on Sundays, but it cannot erase inferiority of tradition or facilities on Saturdays.

As a result, the traditional powers tend to keep a firm hold on their perches. Competition at the top is fierce. It's hard enough for the very elite to beat each other for superiority; it's nearly impossible for a team from a lesser perch to unseat those elite programs with regularity.

All of which brings us back to Chizik. Auburn is well entrenched as the state of Alabama's second-most popular team. The program has certainly had plenty of high points, but year-in, year-out, you are better off betting on the Tide than the Tigers.

Auburn is also under attack from its neighbors. Traveling just a few hundred miles from Auburn places you squarely within the traditional stalking grounds of powers like LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee.

The Tigers find themselves in the center of the country's toughest conference. The Auburn throne does not rule a vast kingdom with a comfortable stronghold.

Still, the frustration of Auburn boosters and fans with this season is understandable. They only get a dozen games with their team most years and a couple more in a great year. Lost years like 2012 eat into the enthusiasm and, let's face it, generosity of the fanbase.

But the reasons to expect better from Chizik's Auburn in the future seem to outweigh those indicating further putridity. While not reaching Nick Saban's lofty recruiting classes at Alabama, Chizik has outperformed many other SEC counterparts during his tenure.

Furthermore, Chizik's current plight seems most related to a mismatch between his roster and coaching staff. Since Malzahn's departure, Auburn has struggled to establish a scheme that matches the skills of its key offensive players. But just as Malzahn radically shifted the face of the Tiger offense upon Chizik's arrival, another coordinator could do the same. The number of bright offensive minds available, especially young ones looking to prove themselves, is great.

A coaching change will certainly result in the exodus of some current players and recruiters. In the best scenario, 2013 will have growing pains and losses that might have been avoided if the current staff could continue its program. And the worst case? Ask Tennessee how easy these transitions are.

Auburn's 2012 has been a nightmare, and it is reasonable to say it is the kind of season that is unacceptable for the caliber of the program. But there are no guarantees that the Tigers' next coach can reach the accomplishments Chizik has already demonstrated he is capable of.

The abyss Auburn sits in now must seem cruelly bleak. But it only seems that way because Chizik showed them what view from the top of the mountain looks like.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 3:28 PM | Comments (1)

Cinderella in 2013: November Edition

This is the first of a bimonthly series of articles, with follow-ups and extensions being added in January and March (after Selection Sunday and before the games begin). Each article will focus on two new teams to add to the list of possible "Cinderella" teams.

Creighton Blue Jays

Before I begin analyzing the Blue Jays, I'd like to start by saying that I'm well aware of the fact that they are ranked already — my reason for putting them here is two-fold. Firstly, they're significantly better than even their spot at 15 in the rankings would suggest — perhaps as good as top-10 material. The second, and more important reason, is that regardless of how well they perform this season, they'll almost surely get a four-seed or lower come March.

The selection committee has a horrible habit of heralding big names like Duke, regardless of their comparative record and strength of schedule, while simultaneously short-changing teams like Creighton. So it seems like a given, even four months before the actual seeding is done, that Creighton, who has enough talent to play into the Final Four this year, will be seeded low enough that such an accomplishment would be viewed as an "upset."

For those of you wondering why I'm so confident in Creighton, I'd suggest simply watching them play — because doing so will impress you. They're an extremely well-coached and disciplined team, that plays defense well, shoots well, and can make people look downright silly if they play sloppy defense. Add in the fact that they have superior physicality, and a probable Player of the Year candidate in Doug McDermott, and you have a recipe for an extremely successful season, possibly including four or more wins in the NCAA tournament.

Ohio Bobcats

Depending on who you ask, the Bobcats should already be ranked in the top 25 (they received 6 such votes in the AP poll), but either way, this team has top-25 potential. Even if they never reach the recognition that comes with being ranked, they'll be a force-to-be-reckoned-with by March of next year. It's hard to imagine them being ranked too highly, given their recent history if being ranked much too low, and if this team remains under the selection committee's radar once again, look out.

This team is dangerous for a variety of reasons, and starting with the edge that comes with being disrespected in the polls will only make them that much more dangerous. They play solid, scrappy defense, and are very efficient offensively. The last time I checked, scoring a lot of points and giving up very few was a pretty good way to win games, especially in the MAC.

With the talent on the Bobcats roster, a MAC schedule might produce somewhere between 28-30 wins by Selection Sunday, and a win total that high will give this already dangerous team a taste of winning and invaluable confidence.

Just for good measure, there's only one underclassman, and no freshman on the roster. So now we've got an experienced, confident, talented team that figures to be on a roll come March. I like their chances.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 12:53 PM | Comments (0)

November 18, 2012

Now That the AL MVP's Been Decided...

Let's get one argument swept aside right here and now. Either Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout would have been a worthy American League Most Valuable Player winner. In fact, there should be no argument about that.

You wouldn't have disgraced Cabrera, who did win (and by a larger margin than the debate might have led you to believe), had the award gone to Trout. (As a matter of fact, Cabrera himself — the essence of grace in accepting the award — though Trout might win it.) And it doesn't disgrace Trout that Cabrera has won the award.

Both men had off the chart 2012s. Both men were clearly the most talked-about non-pitchers in the American League, if not all baseball. (You'd have to leave a little elbow room for Bryce Harper, who won the National League's Rookie of the Year.) And neither man's team would have won a damn thing without them, never mind (for now) that the Tigers won a weaker division and the Angels slipped out of the races in mid-September in a stronger division.

Everybody with me? Thank you. Now hear this: when all is said and done, the following were the most fatuous, erroneous arguments deployed for deciding the American League MVP one way or another. Which certainly didn't stop those who did from deploying them, anyway.

1) Nobody won a Triple Crown in how many years?

Well, 45 of them, to be precise. It is a jaw-dropping achievement. And it's irrelevant to the MVP considerations. The award doesn't say, "Most Valuable League Leader"; it doesn't say, "Most Valuable Triple Crown Winner," never mind that Triple Crown winners have tended to win MVPs in the past, and that bagging a Triple Crown was just about guaranteed to keep Cabrera in the conversation no matter what the rest of his game did or didn't say.

(Whoops. Guess who won two Triple Crowns back-to-back and no MVPs in either of those seasons? Of course, there’s evidence that Ted Williams may have been jobbed out of one of the MVPs he didn’t win in those two Crown seasons. By the way, Teddy Ballgame won a third Triple Crown—a full decade after he landed his first. Unfortunately, for the Automatic Most Valuable Triple Crown argument, Mickey Mantle won that year’s MVP.)

2) Mike Trout's team ended up where in the postseason?

You might care to note that the Baseball Writers Association of America instructions for voting on the most valuable player says, specifically, The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier. Lots of MVPs have come from teams who didn't win a division, or (in pre-divisional play) a pennant.

A lot of Trout's partisans pointed out the Angels won more games than the Tigers did on the season. It's true. Those partisans also pointed out the Angels played in a tougher division and faced a lot tougher pitching. Those are true, too. Even a lot of Cabrera's partisans pointed out the same thing.

But if the BBWAA instructions say you don't have to decide an MVP based on his team's postseason presence, then you shouldn't hold Mike Trout's team missing the postseason against him in MVP voting. (It wasn't even close to his fault the Angels ended up missing; their pitching, particularly the bullpen, was too inconsistent to keep them alive come mid-September.)

By the way, according to the same instructions you shouldn't hold against Cabrera that his team won a very weak division (and probably owed as much to the White Sox going in the tank at last as anything else for winning it) — the Tigers wouldn't have won even one fewer game than the Angels without him.

3) Look at all those steaks!

Yes, Cabrera drove in lots of runs. You'd expect a middle of the order man with his skills to drive in lots of runs, depending on how the men ahead of him reach base, which they did rather well when all was said and done. Do you really expect a leadoff hitter to drive in that many runs? (Trout scored only ten fewer runs than Cabrera drove in and twenty more runs than Cabrera scored, if you care to note.)

Chase Headley led the National League in RBIs in 2012 and he was barely a topic in the MVP voting compared to Buster Posey, who did win the award. (Headley finished a very distant fifth.) Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard tied for the National League RBI lead in 2009 — with 141. Look at all those steaks! Well, guess who didn't win the league MVP that season. (The winner was Albert Pujols, with six less steaks.) Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson won an MVP (1990) with only 61 RBIs. Oh, yes. He was a leadoff hitter.

Which reminds me:

4) Name me one leadoff hitter who ever landed an MVP. Aside from Rickey Henderson, of course.

No sweat. Ever heard of Ichiro? (2001.) Pete Rose? (1973.) Zoilo Versailles? (1965 — his career year, leading the league in runs, doubles, triples, and total bases, not to mention the most WAR — 7.1 — of any non-pitcher in the league.) Maury Wills? (1962, though there's a huge argument that Wills won the award for only one reason: he smashed a record thought to be untouchable until then. Objectively, either Willie Mays or Frank Robinson should have won that award.) Leadoff men winning MVPs is not unprecedented.

Which reminds me further:

5) Since when do we give rookies the MVP — let 'em wait their turns, it ain't their times yet..

Ever heard of Ichiro, again? (Never mind his prior career in the Japanese leagues.) Well, somebody had to break the precedent.

6) C'mon, you know damn well the MVP is for hitters.

It says most valuable player, not most valuable hitter. It implies — though enough of the voters don't always look at things that way — the whole of the player's game. If you look at those wholes between Trout and Cabrera, and not just the Triple Crown jaw drop, you discover:

a) Mike Trout actually created only one fewer run in a shorter season than Miguel Cabrera did, and used 56 fewer outs to do it. Had the Angels taken Trout with them right out of spring training, instead of waiting until April's end, just about, to call him up, it's extremely likely that Trout would have created more runs than Cabrera while still using less outs to do it. It's not that you pick an award winner according to what he might have done, of course, but I'd need a lot more evidence to be convinced Miguel Cabrera was that much better at creating runs than Mike Trout.

b) Trout actually saved his team more runs defensively. He was worth 30 runs saved above the American League average in center field; Cabrera was worth four runs saved below the American League average at third base. And I haven't even thought about all those highlight reel catches and plays Trout made on the year. The sad part of it is that Cabrera is a good third baseman and could well become a little better the longer he plays the position, but — just as you don't vote an award based on what a player might have done — you don't base it on what he might yet do.

c) If you're going to hark back to offense — meaning, not just swinging the bat, but any and everything you can do from plate to bases and around back to the plate — consider this: Mike Trout's offensive winning percentage in 2012 was .786. Miguel Cabrera's offensive winning percentage was .745. That isn't a slim difference at all. Since a lot of the voting writers either aren't inclined toward deeper statistical analysis, or have multiple births at the mere mention of it, it shouldn't surprise you that those percentages weren't considered.

But they probably should have been. A 41-point difference in offensive winning percentage is vast enough.

I noticed something else, too. Did you know that, in 2012, the Tigers' winning percentage in the games in which Cabrera played (he played 161) was .529? That's pretty impressive for an individual player's impact. But lo! The Angels' winning percentage in the games Mike Trout played was .563. Trout played 22 fewer games than Cabrera. It's reasonable to think that, if the Angels had had him all season long, the winning percentage would still have been higher, though you can debate whether the difference, still, would have been +34.

7) C'mon, it's about time Cabrera won the MVP, he was so strong a candidate in 2010 and 2011, it was his time.

Are you picking the Most Valuable Player of 2012 or the Most Valuable Player of the past few seasons? The MVP isn't and shouldn't be anything resembling a lifetime achievement award. (Neither, for that matter, should All-Star Game votes, and that certainly doesn't stop fans from picking players according to their career stats over the season in question.) When you looked at this year's MVP considerations the last place you should have looked was any year other than 2012.

You don't award a player an MVP to make up for past seasons when, perhaps, he should have won the award but didn't. If anything, Cabrera's play this season was his way of saying 2010 and 2011 became irrelevant. He wasn't playing for a three-season or a lifetime achievement award.

If you think that is a fatuous argument in turn, ask yourself what's happened to presidential candidates who earned their party's nominations for no better reason than it was their "time" to earn them. Mitt Romney, John McCain, John Kerry, and Bob Dole have some answers for you.

8) Trout slipped in September, Cabrera turned up the heat in September. End of conversation.

Show me where the award says, "Most Valuable Player in the September Stretch." Then come back to me. Now, if Mike Trout had gone into the proverbial tank from the minute the teams returned to the races after the All-Star break, then you wouldn't even have him in the conversation, no matter how white hot was his first half.

9) Trout struck out a way lot more than Cabrera did. What's so valuable about that?

What would you rather have: a guy making single outs on one swing, or a guy who led the league in hitting into double plays and making two outs on a swing? Cabrera did lead the AL in grounding into double plays. I'm no further convinced that should have been held against Cabrera than in favour of Trout.

But I'd sure rather have a guy costing me one out on a strikeout (unless, of course, it means side retired) than a guy killing a rally, or at least putting it onto a death watch, by hitting into a double play. Which may explain a little bit, too, about how Trout could have used up 56 less outs to create just one fewer run than Cabrera used up to create just one more run.

10) Trout won the Rookie of the Year unanimously. Jeez Louise, isn't that enough for a 20-year-old rook?

In court, that one might be dismissed as incompetent, irrelevant, and immaterial. The MVP instructions don't say, "Must be 21 or older for admission."

In fact, most of the foregoing arguments I've discussed would be dismissible on at least two if not all three such grounds.

Even up to the day Trout landed that unanimous Rookie of the Year award, I was convinced on all the evidence top to bottom that Trout should have been the MVP. I've since changed my mind.

It wouldn't have been wrong, and it would have been absolutely right, if the award were to be a dead heat. Only Trout's most ignorant loyalists would have called Cabrera unworthy; only Cabrera's most ignorant loyalists would have called Trout unworthy. (It's happened before: Willie Stargell and Keith Hernandez shared the 1979 National League MVP; Denny McLain and Mike Cuellar shared the 1969 American League Cy Young Award.)

So why didn't anyone think about maybe naming them co-MVPs? They both deserved it. Besides, a co-MVP between Cabrera and Trout would have given us the one thing baseball mavens — traditionalist, sabermetric, otherwise — really adore, more than anything short of baseball games actually being played: More debates, more often, for decades to come. Wild-eyed or otherwise.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:47 PM | Comments (0)

November 15, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 11

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Miami @ Buffalo (-1)

The Bills fell to last in the AFC East with a 37-31 at New England, as the Buffalo defense once again faltered. Buffalo is 3-6, thee games behind the 6-3 Pats, and faces the Dolphins in Buffalo for Thursday Night Football.

"As they say," Chan Gailey said, "it's time to circle the wagons. Luckily, in Buffalo, when we 'circle the wagons,' it forms a perfect circle, which is the only way to get a 'ring' in Buffalo.

"But we expect the fans Ralph Wilson Stadium to be much like the jock strap of one of the many NFL players busted for driving while impaired: supportive, and reeking of alcohol."

Ryan Tannehill threw 3 interceptions in Miami's 37-3 loss to the Titans last week, the Dolphins' second consecutive loss. Now 4-5, Miami trails the Patriots by two games in the AFC East.

"It seemed like only yesterday that we were talking playoffs," Joe Philbin said. "That doesn't mean we've stopped. In fact, we're talking playoffs non-stop now. Of course, it's 'all talk.'"

The 'Fins bounce back with a 27-21 win.

Arizona @ Atlanta (-10)

Despite 411 yards passing from Matt Ryan, the Falcons lost for the first time in nine tries, falling 31-27 in New Orleans. Atlanta still holds a comfortable three-game lead in the NFC South over the 5-4 Bucs, with the 4-5 Saints rising.

"The 1972 Miami Dolphins can rest easy," Roddy White said. "At least those can that aren't already resting easy.

"I said we 'gave' the win to the Saints. That was just a few days after I said we had the 'pedigree' to go 16-0. In other words, I made 'two points,' which pretty much describes our recent playoff performance."

The 4-5 Cardinals enjoyed a much-needed bye, and look to turn their season around after suffering their fifth straight defeat in Week 8.

"We know what it's like to have an undefeated season come crashing down," Larry Fitzgerald said. "We started the season 4-0. Since then, we've lost five in a row. So much for that '0' on the loss column. However, at our current pace, we're bound to reclaim a '0' in the loss column. It's too bad it will be accompanied by a '1.'"

The Cardinals need a win in the worst way. Make that the second-worst way. What they need in the worst way is a quarterback.

The Atlanta defense makes a statement, by staying silent, and make life miserable for John Skelton. The Arizona defense keeps the Cards in it, with 2 turnovers, but Ryan and the offense pull away late.

Falcons win, 28-21.

Cleveland @ Dallas (-7½)

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 38-23 in Philadelphia and now trail the Giants, who lost to the Bengals, by only 1½ games in the NFC East. The 2-7 Browns visit Cowboys Stadium on Sunday.

"We could very well be the NFC East's best team," Tony Romo said. "Of course, the best team doesn't always win. Except when they're playing the Cowboys.

"The Giants are fading, and the Eagles are transparent. We're gaining fast on the Giants. I'm sure Jerry Jones can appreciate that we're knocking on their door."

The 2-7 Browns will likely try to establish the running game in order to take pressure off of rookie Brandon Weeden, who's likely to see heat from DeMarcus Ware and the Dallas defensive line.

"I know we can run on the Cowboys," Weeden said. "Much like Trent Richardson and his injured ribs, they're soft in the middle.

"I had a mediocre career as a minor league professional pitcher. I had an ERA that was off the charts. In fact, Jerry Jones had one more 'shutout' than I."

There's a wild west atmosphere in Cowboys Stadium on Sunday. Not because there's a shootout brewing, but because of the "Not Wanted" posters nailed to the walls featuring Jones' likeness.

Dallas tunes up for a Thanksgiving date with the Redskins with a semi-convincing 24-20 win over the Browns.

Green Bay @ Detroit (+3)

With a 34-24 loss in Minnesota, the Lions may have seen any chance for the playoffs disappear in cavernous Mall of America Stadium. The Lions surrendered 177 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns to Adrian Peterson.

"Ndamukong Suh may have been voted the NFL's dirtiest player," Matthew Stafford said, "but Peterson gets my vote as the 'nastiest.' They call him 'All Day' because he never tires. Despite what the legal system say, 'A.P.' is, in fact, guilty of 'resisting a rest.'"

The 6-3 Packers had a Week 10 bye, and used it to rest, get healthy, and watch a Bears' loss on Sunday night.

"We also tried to find a solution for our anemic running game," Aaron Rodgers said. "Unfortunately, our rushing attack is a lot like a Clay Matthews' Fathead — it's stuck in one place, and lacks depth."

Green Bay wins, 31-27.

Cincinnati @ Kansas City (+3)

The Bengals whipped the Giants 31-13 in a must-win game at Cincinnati last week, as Andy Dalton tossed four scoring passes. At 4-5, the Bengals can't afford a letdown against the lowly Chiefs.

"Despite being the home team," Dalton said, "we sure 'took it to' the Giants. For all those not satisfied with the public education system, chalk one up for the 'home-schoolers.'

"It's never easy playing in Arrowhead Stadium, especially for Chiefs' starting quarterbacks. Luckily for them, they don't remember it."

The Chiefs fell to the Steelers in Pittsburgh 16-13 in overtime last Monday night, and are now 1-8, tied for the worst record in the NFL.

"It took us nine games," Romeo Crenel said, "but we finally led a game for the first time. Trust me, it's not the first time I've been accused of having 'ample behind.'"

Cincinnati wins, 20-19.

Philadelphia @ Washington (-3½)

Michael Vick was knocked out early in the Eagles' 38-23 loss to the Cowboys last week, and was later diagnosed with a concussion. With Vick out, Nick Foles will get the start for Philly.

"The Cowboys did something Andy Reid didn't have the guts to," said LeSean McCoy, "and that's 'take out' Vick. But make no mistake — this team, and this city, are still behind Reid. And if we all push hard enough, we just might be able to get him out the door."

"Now, don't be surprised if you see signs around Philadelphia that say 'Can Andy Reid.' Keep in mind, they in no way question Reid's literacy."

Sunday's game at FedEx Field begins a run of three straight games against NFC East competition for the Eagles. The loser of Sunday's contest in Washington falls into last place in the division.

"This is our chance to make a dent in the division," Robert Griffin III said. "Thus far, the only 'dents' made in the division have been in Vick's and my heads.

"I only wish the best for Vick. He was my idol when I was a kid. I truly think he's a changed man. He's paid his debt to society; unfortunately, his other creditors haven't seen any payment from him."

All the talk in D.C. is about the "Petraeus Probe," which clueless NFL players believe is some type of sex toy. New Eagles starting quarterback Nick Foles, much like a marital aid, "gets the job done."

LeSean McCoy rushes for 125 yards and a score, and catches 6 passes for 75 yards.

Philadelphia wins, 30-21.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (+1½)

The surging Buccaneers are 5-4, winners of three in a row after last week's 34-24 win over the Chargers. Up next for Bucs is NFC South nemesis Carolina and quarterback Cam Newton.

"Ryan Khalil of the Panthers placed a full-page ad in the Charlotte newspaper earlier this season claiming the Panthers would win the Super Bowl," Greg Schiano said. "Oh how times have changed. The Panthers have fired their GM and their special teams coach in the span of a few weeks. Now, the only time Carolina makes the news is in the 'help wanted' section.

"But we'll have to gear our defense to stop Newton. He compares himself to Superman, and I can understand why. Superman changes in a phone booth and becomes a hero. Newton 'changes' in the post-game press conference and becomes a villain."

The struggling Panthers are 2-7 after last week's 36-14 loss to the Broncos in Charlotte. Newton was sacked seven times and threw 2 interceptions, continuing the struggles that have frustrated him this season.

"Is Newton sulking again?" Ron Rivera said. "If you see him wearing a vintage XFL jersey with the nameplate reading 'They Hate Me,' then the answer is 'yes.'

"But I think it's time for our defense to step up. Otherwise, another member of this coaching staff may have to 'step down.'"

Carolina wins, 31-27.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-16)

The struggling Jaguars lost 27-10 to the Colts and rookie phenom Andrew Luck last Thursday night. Jacksonville is 1-8, tied for the Chiefs for the NFL's worst record.

"Luckily," Mike Mularkey said, "we've had 10 days to prepare for the Texans. It's not exactly a bye week, which, in Jacksonville, is called a 'Jag' Off,' but it will have to do.

"We'd like to see some improvement from Blaine Gabbert. Or do we? I'm not sure what I'm more anxious to see: more from Blaine, or less of him."

The Texans dominated defensively in Chicago last Sunday night, holding the Bears to only eight first downs and two Robbie Gould field goals. Houston's 13-6 win improved their record to 8-1, and struck a blow for the AFC superiority.

"If the Bears are the NFC's best," J.J. Watt said, "then the AFC championship game should be moved from January 19th to February 3rd.

"Gabbert should strap his helmet on tight. He's teetering on the precipice of losing his job. He's wavering; soon, he may be on waivers."

Houston wins, 31-12.

NY Jets @ St. Louis (-1)

The Jets' offense was totally shut down by the Seahawks last week, managing only 185 total yards in a 28-7 loss. New York's only points came on a fumble return for a score in the first quarter.

"Marshawn Lynch ran over and around us for 124 yards," Rex Ryan said. "I can't till you how many times we lost contain. Me? I've only lost contain once; that's what made me go on a diet.

"Antonio Cromartie says we'll make the playoffs, and I think he's right. I tend to believe a man with 12 children when he says you'll 'get in.'"

The Rams took the 49ers to the limit in a 24-24 tie at Candlestick Park last Sunday. In fact, the Rams would have won on Greg Zuerlein's 53-yard field goal, but a delay of game penalty nullified the kick, and Zuerlein missed the ensuing 58-yarder.

"That was the first tie in the NFL since 2008," James Laurinaitis said. "My father, Road Warrior Animal, called Sunday's game a 'time limit draw.'

"People can say what they will about professional wrestlers. Many think they lack intelligence. They don't. As a matter of fact, 100% of pro wrestlers know the rules of NFL overtimes."

The Rams intercept Mark Sanchez twice, and Ryan yanks him in favor of Tim Tebow late in the third quarter. Sadly, the entire Jets' offensive line turn their backs to Tebow.

St. Louis wins, 19-17.

New Orleans @ Oakland (+3)

The fired-up Saints took down the undefeated Falcons 31-27 last week, led by 298 yards passing and three touchdowns from Drew Brees. The 4-5 Saints now trail the Falcons by four games in the NFC South.

"The Falcons talked a lot of trash," Jonathan Vilma said, "and we made them regret it. I know the bounty scandal may make it seem otherwise, but sometimes, we make the other team 'pay.'

"We're in a position where we may have to win our remaining seven games to make the playoffs. That may be asking too much. Now, if we 'ran tables' like I run bounty programs, we'd be in business."

After taking a 55-20 pounding last week, the Raiders must regroup in a hurry as the Saints and their high-powered offense come to town.

"I was appalled that the Ravens ran up the score. Then the second half started.

"The Saints get all the press about their bounty scandal, but the Raiders made playing dirty infamous long before that. Back then, there were bounties placed on opposing players every home game, and that was by the fans."

Oakland defends their home turf, and takes down the Saints, 31-28.

San Diego @ Denver (-6)

With the Chargers driving for the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter, Phillip River's errant pass was intercepted and returned 83 yards for a score by Tampa's Leonard Johnson. After San Diego's eventual 34-24 loss, the normally reserved Norv Turner snapped in a post-game interview.

"Hey," Turner said, "isn't it about time someone said, 'I've had enough' in San Diego?"

The Broncos strengthened their grip on the AFC West with a dominant 36-14 win over the Panthers, while their three West counterparts lost. Denver leads the Chargers by two games.

"The Chargers are struggling," Manning said. "The last time we played, we scored 24 unanswered points. San Diego has at least that many unanswered questions.

"I tied Dan Marino for second on the all-time scoring passes list with my 420th TD. Brett Favre leads that list with 504 TDs. That means I trail Favre by 84 TDs, 159 interceptions, several pairs of free Wranglers, and one obscene text message."

San Diego comes out on fire right from the get go. After winning the coin toss and electing to receive, the Chargers set the self-destruct timer to 37:43, then promptly blow a third-quarter lead.

Matt Prater boots the game-winning field goal, and Denver wins, 31-28.

Indianapolis @ New England (-8)

While an Andrew Luck-Tom Brady matchup doesn't quite pack the magnitude of a Peyton Manning-Brady contest, Sunday afternoon's Colts/Patriots tilt will certainly be intriguing. The teams have identical 6-3 records; New England leads the AFC East, while the Colts are in the playoff hunt.

"Luck is not the second coming of Peyton Manning," Brady said. "He is, in fact, the second-coming of Bob Sanders, because he's become a legend by playing in only nine games."

Luck and the upstart Colts trail the 8-1 Texans by two games in the AFC South, and face Houston twice in the remaining seven weeks.

"This may be our biggest game of the year," Reggie Wayne said. "And I think Luck is the key to this game, and our season. But we can't rely solely on Andrew. With a little Luck, we can make this whole damn thing work out."

Brady tosses three touchdown passes, and the Patriots confuse Luck with the sheer ineptitude of their defense. Newly-acquired Patriot Aqib Talib picks off Luck late, clinching the New England win.

Patriots win, 34-27.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-4½)

There was a time when a Ravens-Steelers showdown was nearly always characterized by low-scoring, physical affairs. But in Sunday night's game at Heinz Field, offensive firepower may overshadow defensive strength.

"I don't buy that," John Harbaugh said. "This will be a defensive struggle, because the defenses will struggle. Why? Because some of the game's most dynamic playmakers won't be playing, like Troy Polamalu, Ray Lewis, and Lardarius Webb. This is what happens when 'standouts' become 'sitouts.'"

The Steelers will be without Ben Roethlisberger, who sprained his shoulder and dislocated a rib in Monday night's 16-13 win over the Chiefs. Byron Leftwich will start for Pittsburgh.

"I like our chances in Pittsburgh," Joe Flacco said. "We just blew out the Raiders 55-20. We plan to drop '55' on the Steelers, too, by unleashing Terrell Suggs to go after Leftwich. I don't think Leftwich can get the job done. He's a has-been. In fact, he's a 'not-Ben.'

"And speaking of Ben, serious injuries to Roethlisberger have the same effect as arranged marriages — it prevents him from being a 'player.'"

Baltimore forces three Leftwich turnovers, and the Ravens win, 27-17.

Chicago @ San Francisco (-5)

Chicago's 13-6 loss to the Texans on Sunday night was costly for the Bears, as Jay Cutler suffered a concussion late in the first half. With Cutler on the shelf, Jason Campbell will lead the Bears against the 49ers.

"This is exactly why we signed Campbell," Lovie Smith said. "He's an insurance policy, so to speak. And, if his performance in relief against the Texans is any indication, we'll be the ones 'paying a premium.'"

Like Cutler, San Fran's Alex Smith suffered a concussion last week. However, Smith's was not as serious, and he will likely play on Monday night.

"For a quarterback who's followed in the footsteps of NFL greats Joe Montana and Steve Young," Smith said, "I know the importance of being 'thick-skinned.' For the first six years of my NFL career, many of my coaches complained of my 'hard head.' One would think I'd be invincible.

"But blurred vision and headaches is not going to derail my season. This is San Francisco; there was a time when those symptoms simply indicated a good acid trip. Besides, Colin Kaepernick is a capable backup. There will be no 'freaking out' here."

The 49ers give Campbell a hostile welcome, sacking him five times, and San Fran takes a 20-9 win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:26 PM | Comments (3)

Tennis 2012 in Review

2012. What a year.

Novak Djokovic end the year as No. 1 as he won the ATP World Tour Finals earlier this week. He also has his Australian Open crown to add to that, with a further four titles along the way. He didn't dominate the way he did in 2011, but where it mattered, he pulled ahead of the rest of the competition.

Federer had a good run of it, too, taking tennis to new heights. The Wimbledon title he took this July marked an entire decade of grand slam winning performances. That's 7 Wimbledon titles, and 17 major titles overall, from 2003 to 2012.

He also returned to number one in the world briefly and overtook Pete Sampras' record of most weeks as No. 1. And in all honesty, it doesn't look like he's slowed down.

I said earlier this year that Federer was still a great player, and could beat anyone on a given day, but had lost some of the consistency in his game, meaning he wouldn't be able to challenge for the majors any more. I believe a large portion of humble pie is in order.

He's altered his game — the points are kept shorter, and if anything, he's hitting more aggressively than he did at the top of his game. He can't outrun his opposition any more, but he sure can outhit them.

And Andy Murray. 2012 has finally been his breakout year. He won both Olympic gold in the men's singles, and also won his first grand slam title at the U.S. Open. He hasn't done much since, and this has been a slight worry.

Most people expected him to go on and win the World Tour Finals, but two lackluster performances meant he was dumped out in the semifinals again.

People always say "the first major is the hardest to win," but it should be hoped that Andy hasn't taken that to heart, and feels he can win them without effort any more. Because that simply isn't true.

If Andy puts in the same effort and training as he has into winning that first one, he will come away with more major titles. The aggressive hitting that brought him Olympic gold and the U.S. Open title has become a little sparse.

Murray dominated against Federer in his semifinal, but simply gave up the ghost from winning positions in each set. Federer had a distinctly average game, playing well, but not really working too hard, as Murray forfeited point after point with sloppy play.

Against Djokovic, when he was in the mood, he could hold serve with ease and then break. But at crucial times, he couldn't seem to close out.

That seems to be a huge problem since the U.S. Open for Murray. Twice in consecutive tournaments, he has had match points against people and has failed to win. On several occasions, he has served for the set or the match and been broken.

Murray has the game to beat anyone nowadays, with the possible exception of Nadal, but he simply needs to tighten up, and keep a cool head under pressure. No one said it would be easy riding after winning a first major, but in theory, it should be easier. Murray seems to be making it harder.

Now onto Nadal. The Spaniard had a so-so start to the year, going all the way to the final against Novak Djokovic in Australia, before succumbing to nerves and, like Murray, failing to close out from a winning position.

This was perhaps to be expected. Nadal had lost to Djokovic in all of their meetings in 2011, and so perhaps there were some nerves. What was unexpected was how Nadal rebounded from this loss so quickly, and wrapped up the clay court season with titles in Monte Carlo, Rome, and the French Open title for the seventh time in eight years.

But then came Wimbledon. Nadal was knocked out in the second round in five blistering sets by Lukas Rosol, who subsequently lost in the third round. At the time, people couldn't believe it. Some said he looked injured, whilst others said he didn't have a look in on Rosol's serve.

Both camps were right on that one. Nadal didn't get a look in, but he certainly wouldn't have been able to, what with being injured. Nadal has since missed the remainder of the season, and it can only be hoped he makes a swift recovery in time for the Australian Open in January.

Posted by Angus Saul at 11:26 AM | Comments (1)

November 14, 2012

What Alabama's Loss Means For BCS

On Saturday morning, a four-team playoff in college football (not scheduled to begin until the 2014 season) seemed like it would have made a lot of sense for 2012. Four top programs were undefeated and on schedule to win their conferences (if they had one). In many people's minds, there seemed to be a clear No. 1 (Alabama) and a decently clear No. 4 (Notre Dame) with 2 and 3 (Kansas State and Oregon) being a little bit fuzzier.

College football fans were worried a choice between Kansas State and Oregon for the right to battle Alabama for the national championship would be close to impossible to make and then the unthinkable happened: Alabama lost.

Perhaps it wasn't unthinkable, but I don't think very many people called Alabama losing at home to anybody this season. If Alabama was going to lose in 2012, it would have been at LSU two Saturdays ago, or maybe, possibly in the SEC championship game to Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina. But in the end, Texas A&M made a huge statement in their first year of SEC play by knocking off the Crimson Tide. They had played tough against Florida and LSU earlier in the year, but two conferences losses, at home, didn't inspire any confidence in me that Texas A&M could go on the road and knock off the best team in the country. But they did.

Now we are faced with three undefeated teams who all think they deserve to play in the National Championship Game.

But as fans, the first question we must ask is: will they all win out?

Let's start with the BCS's new No. 1, Kansas State

Their next game is at Baylor, who in the post-RGIII world are pretty terrible — recording only one conference win this season so far over Kansas, who has one win all season and that was over South Dakota State. Kansas State should have no probably taking care of business with Baylor.

Their final regular season game however is at home against current No. 15, the Texas Longhorns. Of course, the Longhorns could upset the Wildcats, but I don't see it happening. Collin Klein appeared healthy on Saturday, which was not a given considering he left in the third quarter the previous week against Oklahoma State.

I just don't see how Texas can stop the machine that is the Kansas State offense. Texas has allowed 50 points twice this season already. I don't think they'll be able to hold Kansas State under 40 and Kansas State hasn't allowed more than 30 points in any game all season and I don't see that changing, either.

The real test for the Wildcats would be in a hypothetical Big 12 Championship Game in which they'd face Oklahoma for a second time, but that will not happen in 2012 as the continual conference shakeups leave the Big 12 two teams short of the 12 team minimum required to have a conference championship game.

So for Kansas State, it's only Baylor and Texas standing between them and the National Championship Game. I like their chances of winning out: 90% chance to win out.

And on to the BCS's new No. 2, Oregon

Oregon quite obviously has the toughest road to the National Championship Game from here on in. Next week it's at home versus No. 13 Stanford. The following week it is at No. 16 Oregon State, and after that it's on to the Pac-12 Championship Game, most likely against No. 17 UCLA.

The Ducks were tested by USC two Saturdays ago and have otherwise proven their dominance quite emphatically, but three straight weeks against top 25 teams could be a truly difficult run. If this were one game against any of these three teams, I'd say they got it, but three in a row is just not easy to do against solid competition.

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt to win out, but not by much: 55% chance to win out.

And finally, BCS's new No. 3, Notre Dame

Notre Dame has baffled me this season. They beat Stanford in overtime, a good win for them. Then they destroy Oklahoma at Oklahoma, a win that made many people actually take the Fighting Irish seriously. Then, in the very next week, they need three overtimes to beat Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh! They were only 4-4 at the time and are now 4-6, unlikely to even make a bowl game and here is a team that might be in the National Championship Game, who needed three overtimes to beat Pittsburgh!

Notre Dame's road to the national championship is no cake walk. And even if they do win out, they'll need Oregon or Kansas State to lose to get them in. Next week, the Irish are at home versus Wake Forest, which should be an easy win. But the following week they have to win at USC in their final game of the season.

Notre Dame can win this game, anybody who beats Oklahoma 30-13 can probably beat anybody if they play well, but anybody who needs three overtimes to beat Pittsburgh is not going to win at USC. It all depends which Notre Dame team shows up.

I don't think they'll do it. I think USC shows them up: 40% chance to win out.

I don't think we'll be met with three undefeated teams before the National Championship Game participants are chosen. Between Oregon's tough schedule and Notre Dame's one tough game, I think one of those two will lose one game. But if all three do win out, I think Kansas State vs. Oregon won't bother too many people outside of Notre Dame fans.

If one of the three remaining undefeated teams loses, obviously, the two remaining undefeated teams will play each other and nobody will complain other than Alabama fans.

So the next question becomes: what if two of the remaining undefeated teams lose?

Well, the answer there is pretty simple as well: whoever wins the SEC will play the current undefeated team that doesn't lose.

Alabama has to beat Western Carolina and Auburn before they represent the SEC West in the SEC Championship. Not a problem. Georgia is the current frontrunner in the SEC East and they have to beat Georgia South and Georgia Tech. Probably not a problem.

If by some fluke Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, Florida would represent the SEC East so long as they don't lose to Florida State in their final regular season game.

Whatever the case may be, whether Georgia, Alabama, or Florida, whoever wins the SEC Championship game would play the one remaining undefeated team.

The real kick in the teeth is going to be: what if all three remaining undefeated teams lose once in their final games?

This would be disaster. Seriously, a disaster. Take a look at the BCS standings right now. No. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 are all SEC teams. One of those teams would be a natural representative for a National Championship Game — probably Alabama, Georgia, or Florida as previously mentioned.

But who do you pair them with? Notre Dame and Kansas State would be attractive one-loss opponents, but their one hypothetical loss would (in all likelihood) have come in their final game, which would not bode well for them.

Florida State would be another natural selection, but their final game is against Florida and who knows who will win that rivalry this year. Clemson has one loss, but they won't be the champions of the ACC (FSU has them beat in the Atlantic Division), not to mention they still have to play South Carolina.

Oregon is a possibility, but that depends on which game they hypothetically lose. If they lose in the Pac-12 Championship, they won't be chosen. If they lose to Stanford, Stanford would represent the Pac-12 North, not Oregon, in the Pac-12 Championship Game, so again, not Oregon.

All in all, college football fans had best hope that all three current undefeated teams do not lose, because that would be the biggest mess the BCS has ever seen.

Imagine this unlikely, but not unbelievable scenario: Kansas State loses to Texas. Notre Dame loses to USC. Oregon loses to UCLA. Florida State loses to Florida. Clemson loses to South Carolina. Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship.

If all that happens, the most likely National Championship Game would be Alabama vs. Florida. How terrible would that be for the Georgia Bulldogs? They get to lose to Alabama in the SEC title game instead of the National Championship game! Let us hope it does not come down to that.

I feel bad for the SEC. They have six of the current top nine teams in the country and only two are able to be in BCS bowl games. I have a feeling we might have four rather lopsided non-BCS bowl games when the time comes.

In the end, it is obvious that the last few weeks of the college football season are going to be amazing. There are so many games between rivals ranked in the top 25. Anything could happen. Let's hope at least one of the undefeated teams keeps it together.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 12:50 PM | Comments (3)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 35

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski took charge of the point standings with a win at Phoenix, while Jimmie Johnson crashed hard into the wall late. With one race remaining, Keselowski leads Johnson by 22 points.

"It's all over but the tweeting," Keselowski said. "The race at Phoenix had so many acts of stupidity, from drivers and NASCAR officials alike, I'm not sure what had more 'characters' — the race itself, or one of my tweets."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson's bid for a sixth Sprint Cup championship took a blow at Phoenix, where a late tire problem sent the No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet into the wall late. Johnson finished 32nd, while Brad Keselowski came home 6th and took over a nearly insurmountable lead in the point standings.

"We just cut a tire at the most inopportune time," Johnson said. "Up until that point, it was a 'Goodyear.'

"We aren't conceding anything. However, it's a bad sign when you see a fat lady singing about throwing in the towel."

3. Clint Bowyer — Jeff Gordon took out Bowyer with three laps to go at Phoenix, in response to contact initiated by Bowyer earlier in the race. Bowyer later tried to confront Gordon in the garage, sparking a brawl between crew members of both team.

"Did you see me racing to accost Gordon in the garage?" Bowyer said. "I put the 'sprint' in 'Sprint Cup' and the 'rage' in 'garage.'

"Luckily for Gordon, Michael Waltrip was holding me back. It's certainly not the first time Michael's been seen hugging a man."

4. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished second in the AdvoCare 500 at Phoenix, posting his 14th top-five of the year. Hamlin is fifth in the point standings, 62 out of first.

"It's a case of 'too little, too late," Hamlin said. "But I can look forward to next year for comfort. I'll spend the next four months much like my pregnant girlfriend — 'expecting.'"

5. Kasey Kahne — Kahne started fourth and finished fourth at Phoenix, posting his 12th top-five result of the year. He is third in the point standings, 50 behind Brad Keselowski.

"NASCAR penalized Jeff Gordon with a vengeance," Kahne said. "He was docked 25 points and fined $100,000. I believe before he commits such an act again, he'll think long and hard. In other words, he'll 'pre-meditate' before he does it."

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 14th at Phoenix, behind Roush Fenway teammates Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards, who finished 7th and 11th, respectively. Kenseth is sixth in the point standings, 74 out of first.

"People can criticize Jeff Gordon all they want," Kenseth said, "but I think he showed exceptional driving skill. Like a true professional, he hit all his 'marks.'"

7. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished seventh at Phoenix, posting his 20th top-10 result of the year. He is seventh in the point standings, 78 out of first.

"NASCAR promoted the 'Boys, have at it,'" policy," Biffle said, "and they got what they asked for — the 'Boy Wonder' versus the 'Bow' Wonder.'"

8. Kevin Harvick — Harvick won for the first time this season, taking the AdvoCare 500 at Phoenix. The win came just days after Harvick announced he will drive for Stewart/Haas Racing in 2014.

"Along with Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman," Harvick said, "my addition will give Stewart/Haas three of the most ornery drivers in NASCAR. Stewart likes playing 'grab ass' with me, and he definitely 'grabbed' an 'ass' when he signed me."

9. Jeff Gordon — After contact by Clint Bowyer damaged his car, Gordon retaliated by intentionally wrecking Bowyer, taking out Joey Logano in the process and nearly collected Brad Keselowski. The incident sparked a brawl in the pits, and on Monday, NASCAR docked Gordon 25 points and fined him $100,000.

"I let my emotions get the best of me," Gordon said. "That just happens to be the only sighting of the 'best of me' since my last Sprint Cup title in 2001.

10. Kyle Busch — Busch came home third in the AdvoCare 500, his third straight top-three finish and sixth of the Chase.

"I'm certainly encouraged for next year by my Chase performance," Busch said. "After not making the Chase, I was saying, 'wait 'til next year.' Now, I'm saying, 'can't wait 'til next year.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

November 13, 2012

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* For all the hand-wringing over Chris Johnson's slow start, he now has four 100-yard rushing games this season, trailing only Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, and Adrian Peterson.

* As sad as Jacksonville's offense is, the emergence of receiver Cecil Shorts might qualify as a bright spot. Shorts attended Division III powerhouse Mount Union. I don't understand why NFL teams do so little scouting of the top D-III teams.

* My favorite announcer comment this week came from Brian Billick, on the long punt return in Cincinnati: "Adam Jones, you're not gonna get him with the punter ... nice job by Steve Weatherford to get him from behind." Weatherford, of course, is the Giants' punter.

* Even better, Billick said this during the replay. I don't wish this on anyone, but if any NFL announcing booth had to get hit by a meteor, it should be Thom Brennaman and Billick's.

* This nonsense with the replacement refs has gone far enough. We all know they're doing their best, but the officiating crew in San Francisco, with an assist from the official timekeeper, allowed over 1:00 to run off the clock during a first-down measurement. Maybe that flies in Division III, but it's not acceptable at the professional level. In overtime, the Rams lost another :06 during a two-minute drill, because the officials initially placed the ball on the wrong yard line. An experienced referee like Clete Blakeman would never make those mistakes, and it's time to bring back the regular refs. They might make a bad holding call once in a while, but never something as basic as letting a minute and a half run off the clock.

***

Blaine Gabbert is a disaster. At no point in the first year and a half of his NFL career has he looked like an NFL quarterback. On the rare occasions he's produced okay stats, it's been almost an accident, the quarterback equivalent of a "puncher's chance" in boxing or MMA: that one long pass into coverage comes down in the right pair of hands, or a receiver breaks tackles and turns a short pass into a long TD, that sort of thing.

The problem isn't physical. Gabbert is listed at 6-4, 235. He's athletic and he has a big arm. He's not stupid, either, reportedly scoring a 42 on his Wonderlic. He's playing for a team with a subpar offensive line and receiving corps, and that's a big part of the problem, but it's hardly the primary factor. Gabbert looks lost. On nearly every play, he's guessing. Gabbert's going to be out of the league within three more years, I'd bet. In another era, he might have had a chance.

Young quarterbacks are rushed into service in today's game. Looking at the success of rookie QBs like Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Robert Griffin III, who can blame teams putting their high draft picks on the field right away? Besides, you don't pay a guy $20 million a year to sit on the bench, and with most rookie contracts around four years, you can't wait around to see how a player will pan out. You need to find out whether or not to re-sign him, at least.

That's the reality of free agency, and most quarterbacks who are going to be good show some promise early. Not everyone can be Dan Marino, but even eventual disappointments like Tim Couch and David Carr had times when they looked like players worthy of a top draft pick. Chad Henne had a game like that once, and when Gabbert got hurt on Thursday, Henne replaced him. Although he still did not look like Dan Marino, Henne looked like an NFL quarterback, which Gabbert does not.

I wish teams could admit that talented-but-not-there-yet QBs like Mark Sanchez and Gabbert aren't ready to play. Give them a chance to learn with the pressure off, to adjust to the pro game, to trying to lead men a decade older. Stow them on the bench as second- and third-string QBs and give them a chance to develop, rather than forcing them into the bright lights they're obviously not ready for. Does Sanchez give the Jets a better chance to win now than Tim Tebow does? Yes, probably. But it might be in the club's long-term interest to let Sanchez become the popular backup for once.

Since we're halfway through the season, I'll remind readers that rankings are for right now, not an overall summary of the season. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Houston Texans [1] — Defense ranks among the top three in points allowed, yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed. It also leads the NFL in third down percentage and fewest first downs allowed, and trails only Chicago in opponents' passer rating (71.6, about the same as Mark Sanchez).

2. Denver Broncos [3] — Seven sacks against Carolina, including a safety, and they now lead the NFL in sacks (31), though they lost Elvis Dumervil with a shoulder injury. Last year's Broncos averaged 19.3 points per game, and only scored 30 twice all season. This year's Broncos average 30.1 points per game, 2nd-best in the NFL, and this was their fourth straight game topping 30. Peyton Manning leads the NFL in passer rating (108.0) and threw his 420th career TD this weekend, tying Dan Marino for second place all-time.

Dan Patrick asserted on Sunday that "Adrian Peterson [has] already got Comeback Player of the Year."

3. Chicago Bears [4] — Stats from the first half of Sunday night's loss:

Jay Cutler passing yards: 40
Jay Cutler rushing yards: 37
Matt Forte rushing yards: 11

That's not a recipe for success. Both Cutler and San Francisco's Alex Smith left their games with concussions, so next week's pivotal NFC showdown could feature Jason Campbell vs. Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. I actually think a conservative, game-manager QB like Campbell is a good fit for this team.

4. New England Patriots [5] — This is their most balanced offense since they had Corey Dillon in 2004, and it will get even better if Aaron Hernandez ever returns from injury. But the defense is a real problem: opposing passers average 8.1 yards per pass attempt, with a collective rating of 97.3. The Patriots have allowed 47 pass plays of 20+ yards, most in the NFL.

5. Atlanta Falcons [2] — In the loss, Matt Ryan got the first 400-yard passing game of his career and Tony Gonzalez caught his 101st TD, 6th-most all-time. It was also his 17th game with multiple receiving TDs. With one more, he'll tie Steve Largent for 10th-most all-time.

It surprised me that Ryan had never thrown for 400 before. There are 24 other active QBs with a 400-yard game, and 15 with more than one.

6. Green Bay Packers [8] — By the end of the season, Green Bay may have too many injuries to be competitive in the playoffs. First-round draft choice Nick Perry was placed on injured reserve this week.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — Injuries continue to mount here, as well. Already without Troy Polamalu and Antonio Brown, the Steelers saw Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) and Ryan Clark (concussion) leave Monday's game with injuries. The team misses Polamalu, but his diminishing importance is illustrated by Pittsburgh easily leading the NFL in yards allowed and passing yards allowed.

8. San Francisco 49ers [6] — David Akers missed a 41-yard game-winning field goal in overtime, leading to pronouncements of shock from everyone who made any comment at all. Representative was the exchange on NBC, with Rodney Harrison gasping, "David Akers missed it?" and Dan Patrick somberly intoning, "It's rare. It's very rare." Akers has missed six field goal attempts this season, most in the NFL. Actually, he's tied for most ... with Adam Vinatieri.

Akers also missed eight kicks last year, 3rd-most in the league, and the two guys who missed more (Graham Gano and Billy Cundiff) are both out of the league.

9. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Scored a team-record 55 points against the Raiders. If only they could play like this on the road. At home, Baltimore is 5-0 and has outscored opponents by 76. In away games, the team is 2-2, with the wins over Kansas City and Cleveland, and has been outscored by 18.

10. Seattle Seahawks [11] — Marshawn Lynch leads the NFL in 100-yard rushing games (6) and already has 1,000 rushing yards, joining Adrian Peterson. The Seahawks are last in the league in passing yards per game, but Russell Wilson is making good decisions and making the plays he has to (15 TD, 8 INT, 90.5 passer rating).

11. New Orleans Saints [14] — Four wins in the last five games, but they'll have a tough time making the playoffs for four reasons.

1. They're still under .500, tied for 9th place in the NFC. That leaves them 1½ games behind the Seahawks and Vikings for the last wild card.

2. They're not a good road team. Since the start of last season, New Orleans is 11-2 at home, but 6-6 on the road.

3. The remaining schedule looks rough. They have road games against the Falcons, Giants, and Cowboys, plus tough home matchups with the 49ers and Buccaneers.

4. The defense is terrible. Even in this week's win over the Falcons, Matt Ryan threw for a career-high 411 yards, with 3 TDs and a 100.7 passer rating. Only one opponent all season has scored fewer than 24 points against them, with three of them scoring a season-high. The Saints are last in many defensive categories, but here's one that's particularly striking: 42.9% of opposition passes go for a first down, by far the highest rate in the league. The difference between the Saints and the 31st-place Titans (38.7%) is larger than the difference between the Titans and the 12th-place Colts (34.7%).

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [12] — They're 4-1 since the bye. In each of the five games, Josh Freeman has passed for multiple touchdowns and a passer rating over 100. His 98.2 rating this season is even better than his terrific 2010 performance (95.9). The Bucs rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring (28.9 ppg). Yes, they do.

13. New York Giants [9] — Three of their four losses are against teams with losing records, and they haven't played a really good game in a month. In the entry above, I wrote about Tampa's Josh Freeman. Last five games, including sacks:

14. Dallas Cowboys [15] — They're 4-5, but only one team left on their schedule has a winning record. Dallas doesn't have the greatest homefield advantage in the league, but the next three games in a row — and five of the next six — are at home.

I know nobody cares about punters, but the Cowboys' Brian Moorman and Philly's Mat McBriar may have been the difference in this week's game. Moorman pinned the Eagles inside their own 20 three times, with no touchbacks and only 4 punt return yards allowed all game. McBriar, the former Cowboy, had 2 touchbacks and a punt returned for a touchdown.

15. Indianapolis Colts [16] — Man, does Andrew Luck like Reggie Wayne. His first five passes on Thursday night were all to Wayne, eventually eight of the first 10. The Colts have won four games in a row, but all against teams with losing records (combined 11-26, .297).

16. Minnesota Vikings [21] — Adrian Peterson had his fourth straight 100-yard game, and leads the NFL in rushing. He has more yards (1,128) through 10 games than he did in the 12 games before his injury last season (970), and is on pace for career-highs in rushing yardage (1,805) and average (5.8).

17. Detroit Lions [13] — Calvin Johnson had the game his fantasy owners have been waiting for (12 rec, 207 yds, TD), but Detroit went 1/9 on third downs and the defense got ripped apart by Peterson (171 yds). The Lions couldn't even stop Christian Ponder (221 yds, 2 TD, 114.2 rating), despite the absence of top target Percy Harvin. The Lions have three straight home games (five of the remaining seven, actually), but they're all against teams with winning records: Packers, Texans, Colts.

18. San Diego Chargers [18] — Philip Rivers' pick-six was as bad a play as you could ask for, a terrible decision and an awful throw. It was a 10-point swing in a game San Diego lost by 10.

19. Cincinnati Bengals [25] — Andy Dalton passed for just 199 yards, but with 4 TDs and no interceptions. The only active QBs with a 4-TD, 0-INT, under-200-yard passing game are Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger (in 2007), and Tarvaris Jackson (in '08).

Since 1960, the only players with more than one such game are Hall of Famers Bob Griese and Steve Young. Teams are 23-0 when their QB combines those stats.

20. Washington Redskins [19] — Scored at least 24 points in each of their first four games. They've scored fewer than 24 in four of the five games since, including season-lows of 12 and 13 in their last two games. RG3 is still an exciting player and prospect, but he's not terrorizing defenses the way he did earlier in the season, and he's getting no help from his defense.

21. Miami Dolphins [17] — CBS reported before the game that Reggie Bush won't be re-signed after the season. The team reinforced this by giving Bush only 4 carries in their blowout loss to Tennessee.

22. St. Louis Rams [27] — Danny Amendola's 80-yard play to open overtime was negated by a careless illegal formation penalty. Later, Greg Zuerlein's game-winning 53-yard field goal was negated by a careless delay of game penalty. That's particularly inexcusable because it came immediately following a St. Louis timeout. A freaking minute wasn't enough time to get your field goal team ready? Zuerlein missed the 58-yard kick that followed the penalty, and the 49ers took over two yards shy of midfield.

23. Tennessee Titans [28] — I wonder if Tennessee is the first team ever to allow only 3 points one week after giving up more than 50 points. Probably.

24. Cleveland Browns [23] — A 2-3 record at home is not great, but it's better than 0-4 on the road. The Browns can be mathematically eliminated from a division title in Week 11, if they lose and the Ravens win.

25. New York Jets [20] — The offense is bad, but really, Mark Sanchez never had a chance. He has a bad offensive line, bad running game, no standout receivers. And he has to deal with constant public speculation about his job. Has any QB in history succeeded in a situation like that?

26. Carolina Panthers [24] — Went 0/12 on third down against Denver. They rank 27th in points per game (18.6).

27. Philadelphia Eagles [22] — After a weekend in which three starting quarterbacks were sidelined by concussions, Michael Vick's is the one being called "serious." Rookie Nick Foles will start next week's game in Washington, and immediately face one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

28. Oakland Raiders [26] — No sacks against Joe Flacco. I know Richard Seymour was out, but there's got to be some pressure on the QB. Oakland's 3.3% sack rate is 2nd-worst in the league (Jaguars, 3.0%).

29. Buffalo Bills [29] — Gained 481 yards and 35 first downs against the Patriots, but killed themselves with penalties, turnovers, and terrible defense.

30. Arizona Cardinals [30] — Defense leads the NFL in sack percentage (8.9%). Unfortunately, so does the offense (10.4%).

31. Kansas City Chiefs [32] — Their season can be summed up by a play in the third quarter. With the game tied at 10, Pittsburgh had 3rd-and-7 at its own 26. Ben Roethlisberger appeared to fumble, and Justin Houston ran it into the end zone. The entire Chiefs defense joined in for an uncomfortable dance, the most obvious celebration penalty I've seen in years. The problem is, Roethlisberger didn't fumble; it was a forward pass. But instead of 4th-and-long deep in their own territory, the Steelers got 1st-and-10 at the 41 because of the penalty.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — Probably weren't going to win anyway, but they sure got jobbed by the officials on Thursday. Even NFL Network's Mike Mayock commented on it: "All of them have gone against Jacksonville — every one of these close calls." The Jaguars are worst in the NFL in point differential (-119), and they'll be officially eliminated from division title contention when if they lose at Houston this week.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:38 PM | Comments (2)

Trouble on the Palouse

At the end of another disappointing season in 2011, the Washington State Cougars fired Paul Wulff and hired highly sought-after Mike Leach. Leach while at Texas Tech led the Red Raiders to 10 straight bowl games in his first 10 years. Reason for optimism in the Palouse.

The season started out with a lackluster performance on the road in Provo against BYU. The Cougars followed with two close wins against Eastern Washington and UNLV. It looked like WSU was on their way to a third straight win until Colorado erased a big fourth quarter deficit to beat the Cougars 35-34. The following week WSU played Oregon tough for a half before getting blown out in the second half. Two bad losses followed to Oregon State and Cal before almost upsetting Stanford. At 2-6, the Cougars rolled into Utah again to play the Utes. A 49-6 drubbing seemed to be the cause for the Cougar coaching staff to finally let it all out on the players.

Marquess Wilson, the star wide receiver for Washington State, decided he was not going to be part of the team anymore. After being suspended following the Utah game, Wilson quit the team prior to the last game against UCLA. Wilson tweeted that the coaching staff abused players and used intimidation and belittlement to the team regularly. The star receiver also claimed that the suspension was a cover up from what was really going on.

This is not the first time Mike Leach has been in the center of abuse accusations. While at Texas Tech, Leach was accused by former NFL player and ESPN analyst Craig James of abusing some athletes on the team. Most namely, James' son that was on the team. The allegations were proven to be false but one has to wonder if there might be some truth behind it. Or did Marquess Wilson just not like the tough, hard-nosed style that Leach used.

An investigation will soon be forthcoming. Mike Leach has denied any abuse accusations and some players have gone public in support of their coach. Whatever the outcome, the fact remains that this has been a tough and challenging first year for Mike Leach. Leach has lost 17 players that had scholarships. Make that 18 now with Wilson's departure. Some were kicked off the team and some due to injury.

The gunslinging offense that has the quarterback in shotgun formation on every possession and throwing the ball on almost every down has never been able to get on track. A revolving door at quarterback has not helped. The high-powered offensive attack that Cougar fans were looking forward to this season is probably a year or two away. That is if Leach survives this season with an investigation pending. Give Leach the chance to bring his type of recruits that can handle his military-like style and maybe the Cougars can become a force once again in the Pac-12 conference.

Posted by Greg Suttich at 1:29 PM | Comments (1)

November 12, 2012

Early Lessons in College Basketball

When you're trying to evaluate college basketball teams, it's best not to draw too many conclusions based off just a game or two. Any team with a coach worth his salt will improve considerably between now and March.

With that said, sometimes you can draw conclusions based off limited information, and there were a few things that stood out over the first two days of games (as of this writing):

* Kentucky, buoyed by another crop of super-star freshmen like Nerlens Noel and Alex Poythress, fought past a game Maryland squad 72-69 in Brooklyn on Friday night. A win is a win, but there is something missing from coach John Calipari's standard recipe for success: a dominant point guard.

With all of the recruiting accolades afforded Noels and his fellow frosh, there's nobody on the roster to play the Derrick Rose/John Wall/Marquis Teague role at point. Sophomore Ryan Harrow was so underwhelming Friday, it took former walk-on junior guard Jarrod Polson to the Wildcats past Maryland. It's great that Polson got his chance and took advantage, but he's not a title-winning point guard. He's a glue guy off the bench for 15 minutes at best. And if Calipari can't get Harrow up to standards, Kentucky is going to have trouble replicating last season's March success.

* This may finally be the year NC State breaks the Duke/North Carolina stranglehold atop the state's college hoops power structure. In addition to preseason ACC player of the year C.J. Leslie, second-year coach Mark Gottfried has senior Richard Howell, junior Lorenzo Brown and top 20 freshman Rodney Purvis to round out a roster that took Kansas to the wire in last season's Sweet 16. With a ridiculously easy 97-59 win over Miami (OH) to start things off, the Wolfpack showed they are a serious Final Four contender.

* It's a shame Connecticut is ineligible for this year's NCAA tournament, because Shabazz Napier is the kind of player who can get you to the second weekend all by himself. Despite wearing some of the ugliest uniforms this side of Maryland football, Napier put up 25 as the Huskies beat Michigan State in Germany.

* For its part, I'm not worried about Michigan State yet. Freshman Gary Harris struggled against Connecticut, shooting just 1-for-7 from three, but Tom Izzo will get things worked out. It probably won't be in time to beat Kansas on Tuesday, but he'll have them right in the thick of the things in the Big Ten and ready to make a run in March.

* UCLA is no joke. They beat Indiana State 86-59 on Friday, and that was without the temporarily ineligible Shabazz Muhammad. When Muhammad comes back (and he will), this team is a legit national title contender.

* It will be interesting to see how Florida State grows after dropping their opener 76-71 to South Alabama. The question for coach Leonard Hamilton will be: If not Snaer, who? In the loss Friday, senior guard Michael Snaer shot 2-11 from the field and 0-6 from three. When that happens, can somebody else step up and lead the way? Maybe it will be freshman Montay Brandon, who tied for the team lead with 11 points in just 19 minutes on Friday, but that's a lot to ask of a freshman.

* You want an example of great offensive balance: Try Xavier scoring 117 over Fairleigh Dickinson without a single player scoring more than 22 points. Seven different Musketeers scored in double digits, paced by sophomore guard Dee Davis' 22 (with 15 assists thrown in for good measure). They play Butler on Tuesday, and that is a game well worth watching.

Like I said, two days' of games isn't a whole lot to go on, but you have to start somewhere. And as these teams continue to grow, so will our perceptions of them.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 12:29 PM | Comments (0)

November 8, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 10

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+3)

Andrew Luck set a rookie passing record with 433 yards in last week's 23-20 win over the Dolphins. The Colts are 5-3 in the AFC South, two games behind the Texans.

"No one thought I would make an impact this fast," Luck said. "It's no wonder people say 'I'm ahead of myself' when I say we're in the playoff conversation and I'm in the MVP conversation."

The Jaguars are 1-7, tied with the Chiefs for the NFL's worst record, after last week's 31-14 home loss to the Lions. The Jags will try to please the home crowd this time as the NFL Network comes to town for Thursday Night Football.

"Ask Jacksonville's former coach," Mike Mularkey said. "Home-field advantage in Jacksonville doesn't mean 'Jack.' The Jaguar is our mascot, but the mascot should be the empty seat. Cee Lo Green should change his TNF promo song to 'Hey, Ho, Let's Not Go.'

"Steve Spurrier said the Alabama Crimson Tide could beat the Jags. That's ludicrous. They could out-coach us, not beat us."

Like the Colts, the Jaguars need "Luck" to win; they just need way more "Luck" than Andrew. Luck fires two touchdown scores, one to Reggie Wayne, formerly of the "U," and the Colts win 22-17, which presently gives the Jags the "L."

NY Giants @ Cincinnati (+6)

For the second week in a row, the Bengals welcome a Manning to "The Jungle." Last week, Peyton Manning led the Broncos to a 31-23 win over Cincinnati. This week, Eli and the 6-3 Giants pay a visit.

"We're already 0-1 against the Manning brothers," Marvin Lewis said. "If we lose to the Giants, we'll be 0-2, which would be a case of 'brotherly love.'

"It's certainly a must-win game for us. We're 3-5. In other words, we're 'Uh oh, Cinco.' It's been awhile since I've kissed a player, or anyone, for that matter. But if we lose, I might just be kissing my ass goodbye."

The Giants dropped a 24-20 home decision to the Steelers last week, as Pittsburgh rallied from a 20-10 fourth quarter deficit. The Steelers' defense stymied Eli Manning, holding him to 125 yards.

"The Steelers did what doctors did to my brother Peyton," Eli Manning said. "They shut me down completely. Of course, I was man enough to take the blame for the loss.

"But don't be alarmed by my poor play. It's November. It's the time of year when people say 'thanks;' it's also that time of year when people say, 'How the heck do you have two rings?'"

Giants win, 31-27.

Tennessee @ Miami (-4½)

Miami's playoff fortunes took a hit last week in a 23-20 loss in Indianapolis. The Dolphins gave up 516 yards of total offense in the loss, and are now 4-4 and trail the Patriots by a game in the AFC East.

"The Colts handed us a big, fat 'L,'" Joe Philbin said. "In the days of Ricky Williams, one was likely to be handed a big, fat, 'J.'

"Now that Ricky's gone, Cameron Wake's taken on his celebrity, and his morning talk show, 'Wake and Bake With Cameron.' Wake is fifth in the league in sacks with 8½. When he was a Dolphin, Ricky was first in the league in 'bags.'"

The Titans fell to the Bears 51-20 last week, falling behind 31-2 early in the second quarter. It was Tennessee's worst defeat of the year and left them 3-6 in the AFC South.

"Team owner Bud Adams was so disappointed in our effort," Mike Munchak, "he left in the third quarter. But at least he showed up. Bud's given the visiting team the middle finger before, and caught hell about it. This is one instance when the home team deserved the finger."

Miami wins, 28-20.

Detroit @ Minnesota (+2½)

The 5-4 Vikings host the 4-4 Lions in a pivotal NFC North game. The loser of Sunday's contest at Mall Of America Stadium falls into the North cellar, while the winner improves it standing for a potential wild card playoff berth.

"We're slowly working our way back into the playoff race," Jim Schwartz said. "But, for Christ's sake, it's no time for a pat on the back."

In a losing effort, the Vikings got 182 yards and 2 touchdowns from Adrian Peterson. Minnesota dropped a 30-23 decision to Seattle, as Christian Ponder struggled, going 11-for-22 for only 63 yards.

"This team is loaded," Leslie Frazier said. "What other team in the NFL can say they have two 'one man wrecking crews?'

"If we are to make a playoff run, we'll do it on the back of Adrian. It certainly won't be on the arm of Christian Ponder. Christian texted me a picture of his right arm; I was way more offended by that picture than any one Brett Favre's ever sent."

It's a big game for both teams, and to the winner goes the spoils — the inside track to third place in the NFC North, and the 18th pick in next year's draft.

Matthew Stafford shakes off an early slow start, and Calvin Johnson finally remembers what it's like to catch a pass in the end zone.

Detroit wins, 27-24.

Buffalo @ New England (-9)

The last time the Patriots faced the Bills, New England blew out Buffalo 52-28, embarrassing the home team at Rich Stadium, as the Pats scored 6 straight touchdowns in the second half.

"Our offense is just fine," Bill Belichick said. "What we need is more consistency on defense. That's why we acquired cornerback Aqib Talib in a trade from the Buccaneers. There's no shortage of playmakers on our offense; now, with Talib, we can say we have 'weapons' on defense.

"I can't see the Bills putting up more of a fight than they did back in September. If they think the outcome will be any different, I expect the final score will indicate that they have been 're-Buff-ed.'"

The Bills hung tough in a 21-9 loss at Houston last week, eventually succumbing to Houston's No. 2-ranked defense. Former Texan Mario Williams made an impact with a sack and 5 tackles in the loss.

"First of all," Chan Gailey said, "my first name is not 'Jackie.' Second of all, we're pleased by what we saw from Mario. He finally put his stamp on this team. He's been 'Billed,' and at $100 million dollars, so have we."

With two weeks to prepare for the Bills, one thing is certain for the Patriots: they had a lot a spare time.

New England wins, 41-23.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (+2½)

The Falcons, 19-13 winners over the Cowboys last week, put their undefeated record on the line against the 3-6 Saints, who whipped the Eagles 28-13 on Monday night.

"There are still people who don't believe in us," Matt Ryan said. "Judging by Mike Smith's 0-3 playoff record, those 'people' would be our opponent in our first playoff game."

The Saints looked like a playoff-caliber team in their Monday night win over the Eagles. To continue rolling, they'll have to beat the 8-0 Falcons in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

"This is much like the situation in the Big Easy seven years ago," Drew Brees said. "We need to give the people of the city something to believe in. This time, however, it's not Katrina that blows; it's us.

"This team has finally come to its senses about what's important this year: winning. Of course, we've been more concerned with beating Roger Gooddell than opponents."

Garrett Hartley kicks a 45-yard field goal as time expires, giving the Saints a 37-34 win.

San Diego @ Tampa Bay (-2½)

The Chargers snapped a three-game losing streak with a 31-13 win over the Chiefs last Thursday night, evening their record to 4-4. They trail the Broncos by one game in the AFC West.

"We're a lot like the lightning bolt on our helmet," Phillip Rivers said. "We often strike at random, but in most cases we leave without doing any harm.

"Norv Turner has this team pointed in the right direction. Unfortunately, it's his direction."

The Bucs are playing like the NFC South's second-best team, looking solid at 4-4 after last week's 42-34 win in Oakland. Rookie Doug Martin rushed for 251 yards and 4 touchdowns to power Tampa.

"For a place called the 'Black Hole,'" Martin said, "there sure was a lot of daylight.

"To be honest, I don't mind the nickname of the 'Muscle Hamster.' However, I do take issue with being called 'Richard Gere's favorite football player.'"

San Diego wins, 26-21.

Denver @ Carolina (+6)

John Fox makes his return to Charlotte as the Panthers host the surging Broncos at Bank Of America Stadium. At 5-3, Denver leads the AFC West, while the 2-6 Panthers bring up the rear in the NFC South.

"Cam Newton calls himself 'Superman,'" John Fox said. "Newton's bared his soul in the last few weeks, but what he really needs to 'get off his chest' is the 'S,' because he's no Superman.

"Manning is still nursing a sore thumb, but the Panthers have an even bigger injury situation — Newton is a pain. Don't get me wrong — Newton has some positive characteristics. I hear he's quite a hit on the dance floor, because he knows how to really 'get down.'"

Newton out-dueled Robert Griffin III as the Panthers ended a four-game slide with a 21-13 win in Washington. Newton had a passing score and a rushing TD and no turnovers.

"Cam finally did what we've all been asking," Ron Rivera said. "He put up and shut up.

"But beating RG3 is one thing; beating Manning is another. Manning is the master at recognizing a defense and audibling into the correct play. Newton? Well, the only audible he knows is calling his own number, because he's always looking out for 'No. 1.'"

Manning throws for 278 yards and 3 scores, and the Denver defense keeps Newton in front of them.

Denver wins, 30-23.

Oakland @ Baltimore (-7½)

The Ravens are 6-2 after a hard-fought 25-15 win over the Browns last week, despite being out-gained by Cleveland. Baltimore leads the AFC North by one game over the charging Steelers.

"Trust me," John Harbaugh said, "we didn't scare anyone with that performance, except me. Of course, no one has anything good to say about us now. We want to change that. It's our responsibility to put the 'rave' in 'Raven.'"

Despite 414 yards passing and 4 touchdowns from Carson Palmer, the Raiders lost at home to the Buccaneers, 42-32. That's mainly because the Raider defense surrendered 515 yards, while the Oakland offense committed three turnovers.

"We've got a long flight across the country ahead of us," Dennis Allen said. "If Raiders fans have their way, I'll have a long trip ahead of me, as well, when I take a long walk off a short pier."

Baltimore wins, 34-19.

NY Jets @ Seattle (-6½)

After a bye week, the Jets travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks in CenturyLink Stadium, where the home team is 4-0. Seattle beat the Vikings 30-20 last week, while the Jets enjoyed a bye week after a dismal loss to the Dolphins in Week 8.

"We are so close to becoming a good football team," Rex Ryan said. "Football is a game of inches. For me, it's a game of 'feet.'

"We're 3-5, on the wrong side of a .500 record. That's not Jets' football. But I know how to turn things around. For what it's worth, Denzel Washington isn't the only one that knows how to fly a plane upside down."

The Jets' defense will likely see heavy doses of Marshawn Lynch, who is second in the NFL in rushing.

"When we're on offense," Pete Carroll said, "I'm asking our fans to litter the field with Skittles. Preferably green ones. If we're lucky, and take it from the Packers, we have been, Antonio Cromartie will mistake those green Skittles for green M&M's. Ultimately, we may have the answer as to why that guy is so darn horny. Ah, me so corny."

Jets win, 24-21.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-2)

With a chance to gain ground on the Giants in the NFC East, the Cowboys dropped a 19-13 decision to the undefeated Falcons. Dallas remains 2½ games behind the Giants.

"Most people say Jason Garrett is to blame for our problems," Dez Bryant said. "I dismiss those charges.

"Make no mistake, though. Garrett is not entirely free from fault. In fact, I think he should be at the mercy of a curfew, just as I am. In Garrett's case, he should be required to be off the field from 1:00 to 7:00 on Sundays."

Much like Garrett, Andy Reid's leadership is in question. Despite a win on Monday night over the Saints, the Eagles have performed well below expectations.

"Michael Vick is a lot like our coaching situation," LeSean McCoy said. "He's a 'turnover waiting to happen.'"

With 2 sacks of Michael Vick, DeMarcus Ware shows up, only this time, he's not left wondering where the rest of the Cowboys are.

Dallas wins, 23-20.

St. Louis @ San Francisco (-8)

The 49ers lead the NFC West and enjoyed a week 9 bye. They'll host the 3-5 Rams, who are last in the division.

"We're right where we need to be," Jim Harbaugh said. "We're 6-2 and leading the division. Much like Ronnie Lott's left pinkie finger, we're halfway there.

"We've won eleven consecutive games against NFC West opponents. On Sunday at Candlestick, we'll say what I'm sure Antonio Cromartie said before the birth of his latest child: 'Let's make it 12.'"

The Rams lost to the Patriots 45-7 in London in Week 8, as the New England offense ran roughshod over the Rams in Wembley Stadium.

"The Pats treated the line of scrimmage like time zones," Jeff Fisher said. "They flew right through it."

The 49ers force 3 turnovers, and Alex Smith completes his first four passes, again not setting an NFL record.

San Francisco wins, 27-12.

Houston @ Chicago (-1)

Two of the NFL's best defenses face off in Chicago when the 7-1 Texans take on the 7-1 Bears. The Texans shut down the Bills 21-9 last week, while the Bears whipped the Titans 51-20.

"I think turnovers will be the difference," Lovie Smith said. "We forced 6 turnovers against the Titans, and we've recovered 11 fumbles on the year. We've made ripping the ball away from the offense a point of emphasis this year, and Charles Tillman has really taken to it. Surprisingly, Tillman is the NFL's only in-house 'stripper.'"

The Texans will try to confuse Jay Cutler with defensive schemes devised by defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.

"Despite the presence of egocentric players like Cutler and Brandon Marshall on the field Sunday," Gary Kubiak said, "Wade will still have the 'biggest head.' To Wade, '10-gallon hat' is not a fashion statement, it's a size.

"We hope to frustrate Cutler. If things go as planned, we'll succeed at that better than his own team."

Illinois was a battleground state on Tuesday. It will be again on Sunday night at Soldier Field, when the state will not only be "blue," but 'black and blue.'"

The Texans' defense makes life miserable for Cutler, sacking him 4 times. Cutler, in a uncharacteristic show of generosity, pays it forward, and makes life miserable for his offensive line.

Houston wins, 18-17.

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-11½)

The Steelers earned a huge road win with a 24-20 win over the Giants at MetLife Stadium. At 5-3, Pittsburgh trails the Ravens by a single game in the AFC North with a date against the Ravens looming in Week 11.

"We have to try really hard not underestimate the Chiefs," Ben Roethlisberger. "If the other option is overestimating them, then we should have no problem.

"I think we have the advantage over the Chiefs in every aspect of the game. We especially have a huge advantage in the little-used statistic called 'hap.' Why? Because the Chiefs are hapless."

The reeling Chiefs are 1-7 after last Thursday's 31-13 loss in San Diego. Romeo Crenel relinquished his duties as defensive coordinator on Tuesday.

"Compared to deciding on a quarterback," Crenel said, "that was an easy decision.

"There are two coin tosses before every Chiefs game. One to determine the kickoff, and the other to determine our quarterback."

Pittsburgh wins, 31-9.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:47 PM | Comments (0)

Ranking the Networks

A quick programming note before we get to the rankings. I am not including single-sports networks such at The Golf Channel or NFL Network, because there's nothing really to compare them to. I will make one of exception, however: soccer networks, because there are several of those.

I will also note that I am sports fan, and I actually like all of these channels. I say this because I don't want the programming directors of the networks low on the list to jump out their 45th-floor windows. Surely they would without this disclaimers.

1. ESPN

Sorry, haters. I don't like the hype and the bling of ESPN any more than you do, but they do one thing very, very right, and that's all that matters: content. Between ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and perhaps most importantly, WatchESPN.com (formerly known as ESPN3), they deliver a metric ton of the actual by-God games and their talking-heads shows are generally limited to afternoons and post-games.

You already know ESPN is where you are going for big matchups not on over-the-air television, but right now on WatchESPN.com, literally as I type this, you can watch Venezuelan League baseball, Louisville's final exhibition basketball game (vs. Bellarmine), and the WSOP Circuit event in Richmond.

Also, their "30 for 30" sports documentaries are very well-done and always compelling. Finally, a word about the ESPN hype machine. In the UK, they have a channel called ESPN America, for expats and fans of North American sports. The hype is virtually non-existent. Their interstitial ads are low-key. It's not a hype machine. It's a hype machine here because it works here. So be the change you want to see. Also, the "This Is SportsCenter" commercials are, it goes without saying, hilarious.

2. FOX Sports Network

It's sort of hard to compare FSN to other networks because their business model is so very different. They are a collection of regional networks, rather than a national network. So while FOX Sports Southwest might be showing a Rangers game, FOX Sports Ohio will be showing a Columbus Crew match at the same time.

Nonetheless, FSN has a couple of great things going for it. Number one is they do indeed have quasi-national sporting events, particularly for college sports, that are picked up by all the regional domains except those showing a local event. And these events are generally the most interesting ones after the over-the-air networks and ESPN make their selections.

Also, I have to spare a paragraph or two for the low-rent awesomeness that is FOX College Sports. FCS is split into three channels: FCS Atlantic, Central, and Pacific. It's like the local access channel of the sports world. Right now, I have it on where they are showing an Oklahoma preseason basketball game, on the OU volleyball court. Brought to you by Red Carpet Charters (the official motor coach sponsor of OU Athletics!).

But low-budget local commercials are not the best thing about FCS. They show college sports not sanctioned by NCAA, such as paintball and fishing (not that I watch these, but it's still awesome). They air coaches shows galore. Live in Maine but have a hankering to find out what the Bethune-Cookman football staff has to say this week? Here's your chance.

The bad about FOX Sports: I find their hype more annoyingly macho than ESPN's. And they employ Joe Buck.

3. FOX Soccer Channel

FSC wins the soccer channel honors over the others on content (once again). Between FSC and their secondary channel, FOX Soccer Plus, they manage to get nearly every English Premier League game over the air each week, either live or delayed. Their SportsCenter-esque news show, FOX Soccer Report, is solid. I haven't seen their horrible American soccer announcers, Christian Miles and Mark Rogondino, in a long time. And FOX Soccer Plus shows a lot of rugby union, rugby league, and Australian Rules Football; a nice touch.

4. NBC Sports Network

The list starts to slip here. NBC Sports Network and CBS Spots Network are virtually the same. They both show the third rate college games no one else wants, have their own slate of talk shows, and basically neither have any sort of discernible identity. I give the slight nod to NBC because their talk shows are slightly more interesting, they have solid coverage of Olympic Sports, and it looks like they will have a pretty decent college basketball lineup (they are showing Ohio State/Marquette and Florida/Georgetown on opening night).

5. CBS Sports Network

See NBC Sports Network.

6. GOL TV

Like FOX College Sports, GOL TV is also pretty generic, but not in the charming way FCS is. Their focus is largely South American leagues, which have low production values. The only European league they have rights to is the German Bundesliga. They show (over and over) a weekly Bundesliga newsmagazine show called "Hallo Bundesliga!" Whenever I see this in the listings I say it out loud, with much enthusiasm and a bad German accent. Their only asset, I forget his name, is this over-caffeinated Scottish announcer whose accent makes Groundkeeper Willie sound like a newscaster in Bloomington, Indiana.

Not Rated: BEINTV

That's "BeIn TV," a new soccer channel. They made waves when they won the rights to Team USA's World Cup qualifying (away games) before most people had access to the network (actually, most people still don't). I only just recently started receiving the channel and I have not watched it yet. But they do seem to have a solid lineup of European Leagues (Spain, Italy, and France) and I suspect it will be a boon to receive this channel on soccer's international matchdays.

I also didn't rate the Big Ten Network and Pac-12 Network because they are too niche, but I will spare them some thoughts: both are solid and if you are a diehard Big-Tenner or Pac-12 fan, you should be quite pleased with these channels. Even though it's very new, I think the Pac-12 Network is a little better, due to better announcers and better pre- and post-game shows.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 10:41 AM | Comments (0)

November 7, 2012

Pac-12 Balance of Power Shifts North

Although there are still a handful of games remaining in the season, it's pretty safe to say that the balance of power has officially shifted north in the Pac-12. With three teams in the BCS top 14 and a sweep so far of the two South Division powers, the North Division clearly has the upper hand in the conference.

Checking the past 10 years of Pac-10/12 conference champions, the first seven of those years saw only two schools currently in the North Division winning titles, with both Washington State and California sharing the top spot with Southern Cal. USC won four conference titles outright during that span and shared another with current South Division foe Arizona State.

But the past three years have shown a definite shift in power for the conference. The Oregon Ducks have won the last three conference titles and are the odds-on favorite to win a fourth. The North Division is 12-7 against the South teams so far this year. Three teams are already bowl eligible and a fourth is just one win away from joining the list. Last season, four teams from the North Division played in bowl games while only three made it from the South (although each division's paltry one win apiece in those post-season games was not indicative of the season overall).

The North, however, can cement its dominance over the South with a couple more games down the stretch. The only inter-division regular season game of note left is UCLA against Stanford after Thanksgiving, and of course the Pac-12 championship game, which could be a rematch between Oregon and UCLA if both schools can win out in the rest of their schedules.

In the South, UCLA is the front-runner ahead of USC, with those two scheduled to lock horns in two weeks before the Bruins take on Stanford to close out the season. The Trojans, meanwhile, have a tilt with Arizona State (just a game behind) this week before the Battle for L.A. and the season finale with Notre Dame (which could be a BCS-buster for the Fighting Irish).

But the BCS could also hang in the balance for a couple North Division schools in these final weeks. Stanford has the toughest battle ahead with Oregon State, Oregon, and UCLA left on the schedule. All three teams are in the BCS top 20 and Stanford would bolster its BCS ranking significantly with wins over all three and could end up with an at-large bid to a BCS bowl game. Oregon and Oregon State share nearly identical schedules, with Stanford, Cal, and each other left on the schedule.

A loss by Oregon State in either of the northern Cal games would give the division title to Oregon, provided the Ducks beat both Cal and Stanford — the Civil War would then be relegated to the "bitter rivalry" heap that is the end of the season. But if both Oregon schools can get by both Bay Area schools, then the Civil War becomes another winner take all affair as it was a couple years ago.

I haven't seen the odds yet, but I'm sure that Vegas is banking on one of the North Division schools to win the Pac-12 title. With their wins thus far over the South Division leaders, I would bet that Oregon, Oregon State, or Stanford could beat any of them again and take the championship. But then again, strange things can happen in college football in November, so I'm not laying down my paycheck just yet.

Posted by Adam Russell at 6:32 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 34

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson passed Brad Keselowski with two laps to go at Texas and pulled away to win at Texas, his second consecutive win in the Chase. Johnson extended his lead in the point standings, and now holds a 7-point edge on Keselowski.

"That may have been the second-best 'restart' of my career," Johnson said. "The best, of course, would be the 'restart' to another multi-Cup championship run.

"Of course, it was quite fitting that I fired the celebratory 'six-shooter' after the race, a sound which heralded my quest for my sixth Cup title. The bullets weren't real, mind you. Judging by the number of pregnant wives and girlfriends in NASCAR this year, I must have been the only one 'shooting blanks.'"

2. Brad Keselowski — Holding the lead with two laps to go at Texas, Keselowski was passed on the restart by Jimmie Johnson and finished second. After leading the championship standings with four races to go, Keselowski is now seven points back of Johnson.

"Seven points is not insurmountable," Keselowski said, "but Johnson may be. Unfortunately, I find myself behind the '48-ball.'"

3. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished sixth in the AAA Texas 500, earning his 21st top-10 result of the year. He is third in the point standings, 26 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Until someone tells me otherwise," Bowyer said, "I'll keep racing like I have a chance to win the Cup. Keep in mind, I don't like people telling me things."

4. Denny Hamlin — After his disastrous result at Martinsville two weeks ago, Hamlin finished a disappointing 20th at Texas. Deemed a threat to win the Cup just three weeks ago, Hamlin is now well out of the championship picture, 49 out of first in the point standings.

"Our Sprint Cup championship hopes came 'unplugged' last week at Martinsville," Hamlin said. "At Texas, we didn't have electrical issues, but after finishing 20th, there was an 'outage' — I'm further 'out' of the championship picture."

5. Kyle Busch — Busch finished third at Texas, backing up his runner-up finish at Martinsville on October 27th. It was his fifth top 5 of the Chase, and tenth of the year.

"Just once," Busch said, "I'd like to be dangerous in a 'Chase' that doesn't involve a policeman."

6. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished well out of contention at Texas, finishing 25th, one lap off the lead. He is now fourth in the point standings, 29 out of first.

"It's come down to a battle between Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski," Kahne said. "I'm sure Keselowski doesn't mind hearing, 'And then there were two.' But I think he'd much rather hear, 'And then there was '2.'"

7. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished 14th in the AAA Texas 500, and is now sixth in the point standings, 54 out of first.

"Brad Keselowski is giving Jimmie Johnson all he can handle," Gordon said. "You could it's a 'handful, and then some.' You could also say that about Jimmie's soon-to-be growing Sprint Cup championship haul."

8. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led one lap and came home fourth at Texas, posting his 12th top-five finish of the year. He is eighth in the point standings, 65 out of first.

"I was out of the title hunt early," Kenseth said, "but don't tell me I'm not a man of my word. I told Jack Roush I'd 'be there at the end' and I will be, because I've got two more races with Roush Fenway."

9. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished fifth in the AAA Texas 500, equaling his best finish of the Chase. He is 71 out of the lead in the point standings.

"We're mathematically still alive," Stewart said, "but there's no chance we'll win the Cup. And don't make me say it again. Believe me when I say there will be 'no repeating.'"

10. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished 10th at Texas, joining Roush Fenway teammate Matt Kenseth, who finished fourth, in the top 10. Biffle is 83 out of first in the point standings.

"I could be the next to 'go,'" Biffle said. "No, I'm not leaving Roush Fenway; I'm the next driver soon to be mathematically eliminated from Sprint Cup contention."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:23 AM | Comments (0)

November 6, 2012

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Adults in the U.S., please remember to vote today (Tuesday, November 6th) if you haven't done so already.

* We hold that government should be of, by, and for the people. Deliberate intimidation of voters is sickening. It's anti-democracy and un-American. Candidates and campaigns should win on merit, not dirty tricks designed to prevent eligible voters from casting ballots.

* You probably heard that Andrew Luck set a new single-game rookie record for passing yardage (433). This is not true. Jeff Garcia, as a 29-year-old rookie in 1999, passed for 437 yards against the Bengals.

* Twenty-five rookie quarterbacks have passed for at least 350 yards in a game, losing 22 of the 25. The winners: Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, and Andrew Luck.

* Telling media quote from Week 8, courtesy of FOX's Curt Menefee: "Should we be giving [Jay Cutler] even more credit than he deserves?" Perhaps Menefee simply misspoke, or maybe he inadvertently revealed media strategy to millions of TV viewers.

***

Sunday afternoon, the Steelers overcame a great narrative to beat the Giants in New Jersey. A clearly wrong roughness call turned a Giants fourth down (and presumable field goal attempt) into a touchdown, then a very shaky officiating decision turned Ben Roethlisberger's incomplete pass into a 70-yard fumble return for a touchdown. That's probably a 14-point swing for New York, just on those two plays. Television viewers went to commercial with Phil Simms, having watched a couple replays, certain that the ruling would be reversed. When the game returned from break, Simms assured his audience that it was definitely, 100% a fumble. Wow. Who talked to him in between?

I know it would have been nice for the Giants to get a win at home after the devastation of last week's storm, but if the replacement refs had made those same calls, the whole western world would be screaming bloody murder. Ryan Clark's "illegal contact to the head" actually caused a mild rib injury, and Roethlisberger's "fumble" sure looked like the tuck rule.

The replacement officials at the beginning of the season made more mistakes than the usual crews, they took agonizingly long to make decisions, and they appeared to have little control over what announcers always call "extra-curricular activities." But to look at something like the end of the the Packers/Seahawks game and say it never would have happened with the "real" refs is plainly false. That kind of thing happens all the time. Remember, the posterboy of NFL refs, Ed Hochuli, single-handedly blew a game in 2008.

The replacement officials made plenty of mistakes, but they never once got the benefit of the doubt, and that's not fair. Let's get to the Week 9 power rankings; brackets show last week's rank.

1. Houston Texans [1] — Lost in the excitement over Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and J.J. Watt, tight end Owen Daniels is having a great season. Finally healthy, Daniels has 37 catches for 478 yards and 5 TDs, more receiving touchdowns than any two teammates combined.

2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — Win came down to the final play, but the game shouldn't have been so close. Matt Bryant, one of the league's best kickers but battling back problems this week, missed two high-percentage field goals, which would have put the game comfortably out of reach. Only one team left on Atlanta's schedule currently has a winning record (at home vs. Giants, Week 15).

3. Denver Broncos [3] — Third straight game scoring over 30 points. But this week, let's credit the defense (5 sacks, INT) and special teams (KR TD). Von Miller posted 3 sacks this week, and leads the team with 9. Last week, Denver held the Saints to a season-low 14 points.

4. Chicago Bears [5] — Only the third team in NFL history with 7 interception return TDs in a season. The most recent was the Super Bowl champion 1999 Rams. The single-season record for defensive TDs belongs to the 1998 Seahawks (10), also the leader in non-offensive TDs (13). The Bears will need some help from Devin Hester to match the latter, but it's very realistic to believe they could score three or four more defensive TDs this season. As a point of interest, the total number of non-offense touchdowns scored by legendary Bear defenses and the most recent versions:

The BK category shows returns of blocked kicks, including Hester's return of a missed FG. This year's Bears have 27 touchdowns: 12 passing, 7 rushing, 7 interceptions, and a blocked punt. Chicago's offense only accounts for about two-thirds of its TD scoring.

5. New England Patriots [7] — Moved up two spots without playing a game. They traded for Aqib Talib, while Aaron Hernandez and Logan Mankins are likely to return from injury following the Week 9 bye.

6. San Francisco 49ers [4] — Flipped spots with New England while both teams were on bye. The rankings from 1-6 are awfully close.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [9] — It was refreshing to see the Steelers win with their ground game and defense, but Antonio Brown's ankle injury is cause for concern. He opens up a lot of options for them.

8. Green Bay Packers [6] — Bye comes at a good time. Linebacker Clay Matthews, wide receiver Jordy Nelson, right tackle Bryan Bulaga, and tight end D.J. Williams all left Sunday's game with injuries.

9. New York Giants [8] — Eli Manning has thrown only 2 TD passes in the last four weeks, with a passer rating of 68.4. He passed for under 200 yards in three of the four games, and he's thrown an interception in three consecutive weeks. Part of that might be matchups, but 68.4 is a pretty bad month no matter who the opponent.

10. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Joe Flacco threw for just 153 yards against Cleveland, but with no turnovers and only 1 sack. The Ravens look best when Flacco isn't trying to prove that he's an elite quarterback.

11. Seattle Seahawks [11] — At home, the Seahawks are 4-0, with wins over the Packers and Patriots, plus a 27-7 rout of the Cowboys. On the road, they're 1-4, including losses to the Cardinals, Rams, and Lions. It's like two totally different teams.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [13] — In the four games since their bye, Doug Martin has rushed for 547 yards (137/gm) with a 6.59 average and 6 TDs. He also has 192 receiving yards (48/gm) in the last month. On Sunday, Martin scored touchdowns on three runs of 40 yards or more, a unique accomplishment. He is the 20th player with three 40-yard TDs in a game, but the only one with all three on rushes.

The last player to score three 40-yard TDs in a game was Chris Johnson in 2009, against Houston: a 57-yard rush, 69-yard reception, and 91-yard run. Others of interest:

* Don Hutson, 1942. The first player with three 40-yard TDs in a game, all receptions: 40, 73, and 65 yards.

* Jim Spavital, 1950. Played one season in the AAFC and one in the NFL. All his NFL touchdowns were scored in this game.

* Billy Cannon, 1961. The only AFL player on the list, three of the five scores from his 5-TD game were over 50 yards.

* Tommy McDonald, 1962 and 1965. He is the only player with two such games.

* Gale Sayers, 1965. His famous 6-TD game: 80-yd reception, 50-yd rush, 85-yd punt return. He is the only player whose 40-yard scores all came on different types of plays (rec, rush, PR).

* Jerry Rice, 1986. His slow 40-yard dash out of college worried scouts. He is the all-time leader in 40-yard TDs (59).

* Eddie Kennison, 1996, and Randy Moss, 1998. They join Sayers and Martin as the only rookies on the list.

Here's a weird group — the only four players with two games of multiple 40-yard rushing TDs: Jim Brown, Eric Dickerson, Tim Biakabutuka, Adrian Peterson. One of these things is not like the others. On back-to-back weeks in 1999, Biakabutuka rushed for TDs of 62 and 67 yards, then 60 and 45 yards.

Barry Sanders is the all-time leader in rushing TDs of 40+ (21), followed by Brown (14) and O.J. Simpson (13).

13. Detroit Lions [18] — Mikel Leshoure rushed for three touchdowns in the first half of their cakewalk over Jacksonville. The Lions are 3-1 since the bye, including two road wins. The loss, 13-7 against Chicago, is nothing to be ashamed of. Left for dead after a 1-3 start, the Lions are back in the playoff picture. Their head-to-head win over Seattle could be significant in December.

14. New Orleans Saints [19] — Defense has allowed over 400 yards in eight consecutive games, extending its own NFL record, and is almost a lock at this point to break the NFL record as worst defensive team (by yards per game) in history. In the next five weeks, New Orleans plays the Raiders, but also the 49ers, the Giants, and the Falcons twice. Even if they split those games, they'll be 5-7, needing to win out for even a shot at the playoffs.

15. Dallas Cowboys [17] — Tough schedule so far. Their opponents have a combined record of 44-23 (.657), and all their losses are to teams with winning records. They've played five games on the road and only three at home. Their last three losses have all been by less than 7. That's about as good as a team can be at 3-5.

16. Indianapolis Colts [22] — At this time last season, they were 0-9. Now they're 5-3, with a weird mix of nice wins (Packers, Dolphins), dispiriting blowouts (lost to the Bears and Jets by a combined 46), and a Week 3 defeat — at home in Indianapolis — against the 1-7 Jaguars. Honestly, how do you beat the Packers and lose to the Jags?

17. Miami Dolphins [12] — In Week 6, the Jets beat the Colts, 35-9. In Week 8, Miami beat the Jets, 30-9. In other words, the Dolphins did 47 points better against the Jets than Indianapolis had. But this week, the Colts edged Miami, 23-20.

18. San Diego Chargers [20] — Over the last 20 years, I've probably heard the phrase "the ground can't cause a fumble" something like 100 times. In the third quarter of their easy win over Kansas City, Eric Weddle lost the ball on a punt return and the Chiefs recovered. The play was ruled a fumble, apparently because Weddle landed on his wrist rather than forearm — a distinction of something like a centimeter — but replays clearly showed that the ground caused the fumble. No defender knocked it away. He had the ball, he landed on the ground, the ball popped loose. Rules should be adjusted to align with common sense, not the other way around.

19. Washington Redskins [16] — Jimmy Johnson fussed on the FOX pregame show that Robert Griffin III is not a "running" quarterback. Griffin has rushed for 529 yards and 6 TDs. He has almost 200 more yards than Cam Newton (347) and is among the top 20 in the NFL in rushing, ahead of Michael Turner, Darren McFadden, and Steven Jackson. He obviously is a running quarterback. So were Randall Cunningham and Steve Young and Steve McNair. The willingness and ability to run well do not preclude being an effective passer or keeping one's eyes downfield.

20. New York Jets [21] — In early September, they waived T.J. Conley, who was one of the league's most effective punters in 2011. His replacement, Robert Malone, has just been okay. Including blocks, Malone's net average is the same than Conley's (39.1 - 38.8), even though he's had a short field more often. But Conley had better hang time, demonstrated by higher fair catch percentage and lower return average. Malone averages about three punts down inside the 20 for every touchback, which is about average. Conley averaged almost twice that, 5.33 per TB. Pinning your opponent deep 78% more often, avoiding blocks, and minimizing big returns are easily worth a little distance.

21. Minnesota Vikings [14] — Another miserable game from Christian Ponder, as they dropped to 1-3 on the road (they're 4-1 at home). The Week 10 home game against Detroit is probably a must-win if Minnesota is serious about the playoffs. Percy Harvin's status for the game is not yet clear.

22. Philadelphia Eagles [15] — They rank 13th in yards per game, but 30th in points per game. Why? (1) Turnovers: the Eagles rank 29th in turnover differential (-9) and lead the league with 6 turnovers in the red zone. (2) No help: Philadelphia is one of just six teams with no TDs from its defense or special teams. They nearly remedied the latter; my favorite play this week may have been the trick play on special teams with Riley Cooper hiding in the end zone.

Against New Orleans, the Eagles had four 10-play drives, which is sensational, but those drives ended in a punt, field goal, fumble, and turnover on downs. Five red zone possessions yielded two field goals and three turnovers, one of them returned for a touchdown.

23. Cleveland Browns [26] — Phil Dawson went 5/5 on field goal attempts, connecting from 28, 29, 32, 33, and 41 yards. The Browns turned five red zone trips into just 15 points.

24. Carolina Panthers [29] — In the opener to this piece, I referenced the 2008 Broncos/Chargers game in which Ed Hochuli blew his whistle early, nullifying a recovered fumble by the Chargers and preventing them from running out the clock in an eventual loss. Almost the same thing happened in Washington this week, but Carl Cheffers chose to pretend the whistle never blew. DeAngelo Williams clearly never stepped out of bounds, and he might have scored anyway, but while Cheffers' decision probably yielded the right result, it was against the letter of the law.

In the same game, umpire Undrey Wash (which is an anagram for Rude Shawny) caused Carolina to be charged with delay of game (later reversed) and got hit in the face when Washington's Logan Paulsen flipped him the football while he wasn't paying attention.

Undrey Wash is also an anagram for Rushed Yawn or Wry Nude Ash, and uncomfortably close to Wash Undies.

25. Cincinnati Bengals [23] — Four straight losses, and their wins came against teams with a combined record of 6-20. They rank 31st in third down percentage (29.4%).

26. Oakland Raiders [25] — Carson Palmer has more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and more passing yards per game than Eli Manning.

27. St. Louis Rams [24] — If you were making a list of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, would Sam Bradford crack the top 8?

28. Tennessee Titans [27] — In 1997, Barry Sanders famously rushed for a total of 53 yards in his first two games, followed by 14 straight 100-yard efforts. This season, Chris Johnson opened with 45 yards in the first three weeks, and he's been over 90 in five of the six games since.

Slow starts seem to be a habit for Johnson. Last season, he rushed for almost twice as much yardage (681) in the last eight games as the first eight (366). In his historic 2009, CJ rushed for a very good 468 yards in the first five weeks (94/gm) and an otherworldly 1,538 in the last 11 (140/gm). Fantasy owners who stuck with Johnson through sickness may be rewarded with some health in the remaining games on the schedule.

29. Buffalo Bills [30] — Put up a decent fight against Houston, but they've lost four of their last five: three by double-digits and the other a loss to Tennessee.

30. Arizona Cardinals [28] — I'm not aware of any other team that started 4-0 and fell to 4-5. The defense is pretty good, so this ranking might be too low.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — This April, I praised them for drafting Andre Branch, noting that the Jags ranked 32nd in sacks in 2009, 30th in 2010, and tied for 25th last year. Today, Jacksonville is back to 32nd, with only 8 sacks. Branch has 1, which ties him for 3rd-highest on the team.

32. Kansas City Chiefs [32] — They're -20 in turnovers, which is horrifying, but otherwise they're really not bad. Their capacity for committing turnovers is almost unbelievable. They've already turned the ball over more times this season (29) than all of last year (28).

Need winning picks this weekend? Get $60 in FREE remember picks from Doc's Sports, a trusted name in handicapping since 1971.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:56 PM | Comments (0)

November 5, 2012

Valid Excuses

After Saturday night's last-minute victory, Alabama continues to hold on to the top spot in the country. While there are games still to be played, the defending champions put themselves head and shoulders above the rest of the contenders for their crown. But after the Crimson Tide, the top three "bridesmaids" have their worthiness shuffled through more than a game of Three Card Monty.

The big commonality amongst Notre Dame, Oregon, and Kansas State is that they're all undefeated. There are threads of similarity with their schedules (Oklahoma, Stanford, USC). Other than that, your guess is as good as mine. The Irish have the most noted defense. The Ducks ... the most explosive offense. The Wildcats could be called the most complete of the three.

Three programs, three allegiances, three ways to the goal of a national championship berth. That light at the end of the season's tunnel would mean something different to each program involved in the chase. But what exactly?

Validation: The System

We'll start out West, where Eugene has supplanted Los Angeles and Palo Alto as the hotbed for pigskin on the Pacific coast. Starting with the consistency of Mike Belotti, the Duck program has flourished under Chip Kelly. In a world where spread offenses have become the nouveau riche, Kelly's system is a step ahead.

The high-flying attack led them to a perfect regular season in 2010, only to be upended in the BCS Title game by Auburn. Now, they look for validation two years later. It will have to come after a Pac-12 Championship Game that didn't exist in the 2010 run. It will more than likely have to come against another SEC champ, setting U of O up to be this decade's Ohio State (great record, but subpar in relation to their SEC bowl opponent).

Validation: A Turn-Around Career

For Kansas State, a title would also mean credibility. The Wildcats are actually a little more established in the "modern" age of college football than the Quack Attack. This can all be attributed to the efforts (twice over) of coach Bill Snyder. Snyder made his presence known to the Little Apple in 1989. It's been well-documented how he turned one of the worst programs in the game into a perennial contender for Big 12 championships in the late '90s and early 2000s.

After retiring in 2005, the team went under an underwhelming stint with Ron Prince at the helm. K-State wooed Snyder back to the sidelines, and if the Wildcats end up on top after January 7th, everyone in Manhattan, KS will reap the benefits. The coach, in particular, would become the oldest man to lead a program to a championship. In a young man's game, this could be the biggest "fountain of youth" moment in centuries.

Validation: League Supremacy

There's another side of the 'legitimacy coin' that both of these schools could buff. Through this bout of SEC dominance, the Big 12 and Pac-12 have been unwillingly trampled in their fight for second banana. Oklahoma won it all in 2000, but no program has lost more championship bouts. USC's win and loss in the title game have been officially stripped from the record books. Not even Texas could slow the SEC juggernaut that got rolling after the Longhorns won the trophy in 2005. Other than these three schools and Oregon, no other current members of the conferences has even been to the BCS Championship.

The criticisms of the leagues are quite connected. Both are full of prolific offenses and less than stout defenses. On the gridiron, they prefer finesse to power. A win in the big game (and over the vaunted SEC) would go a long way to inching the whole collective closer to the honor of "top conference in the country."

Validation: A Return to Tradition

The school with the most to gain may be the one that's had the most all along. As much as people in Tuscaloosa, Ann Arbor, Columbus, or Los Angeles want to think they have the center of college football, it really revolves around South Bend (and trust me, I'm not a fan). Notre Dame's presence in the game is about as pervasive as the Yankees to Major League Baseball and the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL. No matter how tough times get, they're never irrelevant enough to throw them completely off the radar.

The Fighting Irish are getting closer to returning to the BCS for the first time since the 2007 Sugar Bowl. With just three more victories, they could easily find themselves in their first-ever BCS Championship Game. It would be a comeback to glory that hasn't been seen since the early 1990s.

Skeptics are saying that we've seen this train roll through before. The last two coaches got off to fast starts. Tyrone Willingham began his ND career with an 8-0 record in 2002. Charlie Weis went 9-3 in 2006 and followed that up with 10-3 season in 2007. The difference, to me, between these coaches and Brian Kelly is the way and the timing of the latter's turnaround.

Kelly's suffocating defense is among the top in the country. It's one he's built up over the last couple of seasons, bearing fruit in his third year on the sidelines. It feels like the coach has built a better foundation than his two predecessors, and a BCS title could stamp the year as a return to euphoria amongst the Leprechaun and his supporters.

When everything settles down on December 2nd, we'll have our championship matchup for this year. Assuming the Ducks, Wildcats, and Irish all win out, it should be fun to find out which team (or teams, depending on the SEC's carnivorous schedule) gets the chance to validate more than just their fans' parking at the area hotels in Miami.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:24 AM | Comments (0)

November 1, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 9

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-7½)

The Chargers fell to 3-4 after a 7-6 loss to the Browns in Cleveland last week. In a defensive struggle, San Diego managed only 265 yards of offense on a cold and rainy day in the Dawg Pound.

"There was a song made famous by Milli Vanilli called 'Blame it on the Rain," Phillip Rivers said. "It's certainly fitting, because they're 'pretenders.'

"Our playoff chances are slipping, as is my chance to win a Super Bowl. That doesn't mean I can't still try to be like Peyton Manning. Manning may have bought in to Papa John's pizza franchises, but I can one-up him. I'm purchasing a stake in a few Uncle Frank's hot dog franchises. My restaurants will serve hot dogs in every way imaginable, except 'all the way.'"

The Chiefs are playing like the NFL's worst team, and are 1-6 after losing 26-16 to the Raiders last week. Brady Quinn suffered a head injury early in the defeat and was replaced by Matt Cassel.

"Although our team hasn't improved," Romeo Crenel said, "our fans have — they cheered Cassel's entry into the game. It's appalling that anyone would applaud a player's injury; on the other hand, it's nice to give our fans something to cheer about.'"

Crenel has a decision to make, choosing between two quarterbacks who have suffered recent head injuries. That makes Crenel the "head case."

Two coaches whose jobs may be in jeopardy desperately need a win. There's no "hot seat" in San Diego. Oh no, a "seat" would not afford room for Turner and Crenel. But a "hot sofa" would.

Cassel gets the start, and third-stringer Ricky Stanzi gets the finish.

Chargers win, 31-17.

Denver @ Cincinnati (+3½)

The Broncos were nearly flawless in their 34-14 win over the Saints last Sunday night, as Denver piled up 530 yards of total offense and limited Drew Brees to 216 yards passing. At 4-3, Denver leads the AFC West.

"Roger Goodell would be proud," Manning said. "We dismantled the Saints almost as well as he did. Thankfully, Gregg Williams is not the Saints' defensive coordinator anymore. I'm not comfortable with anyone putting a bounty on my head except John Elway.

"As you may have heard, I'm the proud new owner of 21 Papa John's restaurants. I call them 'my babies.' Now, I've got more babies than Antonio Cromartie. But just barely."

The Bengals have lost three straight after a 3-1 start. They'll try to snap that streak against the Broncos, as Andy Dalton faces Peyton Manning for the first time.

"Manning comes from a family of quarterbacks," Dalton said. "Quarterbacking is in his genes. I don't have that luxury. There's no long line of quarterbacks in my family tree, just a long line of redheads. That's why they call me the 'Ginger-bred Man.'"

Manning shakes off a slow start, and the Broncos, as has become their norm, pour it on in the fourth quarter.

Denver wins, 27-21.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+3½)

The Ravens have regrouped after Week 7's 43-13 loss in Houston, a loss that proved how much the Baltimore defense missed injured veteran Ray Lewis and rising star Lardarius Webb.

"Ray and Lardarius were with us in spirit," John Harbaugh said, "which was way more of a presence than any of their teammates.

"We can only use the loss as a learning experience. That's usually the case when you get schooled."

The Browns knocked off the Chargers 7-6 in Cleveland last week, led by 126 yards rushing and a score from rookie Trent Richardson, who shook off sore ribs to power the Browns to their second win of the year.

"We made Trent the No. 3 pick in the draft for a reason," Pat Shurmur said. "And that reason was because Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III had already been taken.

"We'll need Trent to plow his way through the Ravens' defense. In the Dawg Pound, he's the 'Dawg Pounder.' Sometimes, Trent may need a kick in the butt to 'get going.' And so does Mike Holmgren."

Baltimore bounces back with a 26-20 win.

Arizona @ Green Bay (-10½)

The Packers overcame an inspired effort from the Jaguars last week, outlasting Blaine Gabbert and crew in a 24-15 win. At 5-3, Green Bay trails the NFC North-leading Bears by 1½ games.

"This is a game between two of the worst running teams in the league," Aaron Rodgers said. "Our running backs don't pick up yardage, they pick up blitzes. Usually, the first team to abandon the run ends up losing. Not in this case."

The Cardinals were outmanned 24-3 by the 49ers on Monday night, and Arizona is now two games behind San Francisco in the NFC West. The Cards have now lost four straight.

"Despite our troubles," Larry Fitzgerald said, "I'm going to enjoy this trip to Green Bay. I would have enjoyed it a lot more had I made the trip before the trade deadline. I'm not sure what I'd rather seek in Green Bay — the end zone, or asylum."

Green Bay wins, 33-14.

Chicago @ Tennessee (+4½)

The Bears nipped the Panthers 23-22 last week, erasing a 12-point fourth quarter deficit on Robbie Gould's 41-yard field goal on the game's final play. Chicago is now 6-1, 1½ games up on the Packers in the NFC North.

"The Panthers are a better team than their 1-6 record indicates," Jay Cutler said. "We know what that's all about. The Packers are a better team than our 6-1 record indicates. The Panthers just won't go away, until it matters, then they go away.

"I can certainly understand Cam Newton's frustration. Nothing deflates a quarterback more than losing, except maybe Ndamukong Suh. Newton needs to check his attitude, and when I tell you that, you really need to check it."

The Titans fell to 3-5 after a 19-13 overtime loss to the Colts last week. Chris Johnson, who has rushed for 255 yards in his last two games, faces a Bears' defense ranked No. 1 against the run.

"It will be interesting to see what the 'immovable object' will be," Johnson said. "The Bears' run defense, or me."

Tennessee springs the upset, 23-20.

Miami @ Indianapolis (+3)

The Dolphins pummeled the Jets last week at MetLife Stadium to improve to 4-3, a game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Despite losing Ryan Tannehill to a leg injury early, the Dolphins' offense didn't miss a beat, as Matt Moore threw for 119 yards and a score in relief.

"We're thinking playoffs in Miami," Reggie Bush said. "But that won't be until May, when the Heat host a first-round NBA series. As for the Dolphins, we're taking our talents to Indianapolis this weekend."

Andrew Luck's 16-yard touchdown pass to Vick Ballard gave the Colts a 19-13 overtime win over the Titans last week. The Colts are now 4-3 and 3-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium.

"Why is everyone so surprised that Peyton Manning is playing so well?" Luck said. "I knew as soon as he signed with Denver he'd be playing at a 'high level.'"

Miami wins, 20-17.

Carolina @ Washington (-3½)

The Panthers blew a 19-7 fourth quarter lead in Chicago, eventually losing 23-22 to fall to 1-6 on the year. It was another heartbreaking loss for the Panthers, who have lost five games by a total of 18 points.

"Unlike our former general manager Marty Hurney," Steve Smith said, "we don't know how to 'close the deal.' If there's a way to lose a game, we'll not only find it, we'll put it to use. Who says we waste our talent?"

This year's rookie quarterback sensation, Robert Griffin III, takes on last year's, Cam Newton, who has struggled this year.

"I hear I'm often compared to Newton," Robert Griffin III said. "Hopefully, not in the same breath. Truthfully, Newton and I are a lot alike. We're both big, strong quarterbacks. We're also different. I sell subs. Cam needs one."

Griffin throws for two scores and runs for another, out-dueling Newton, who throws a costly late interception.

Washington wins, 34-27.

Detroit @ Jacksonville (+4)

Matthew Stafford passed for 352 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning scoring strike to Titus Young on fourth down with 20 seconds left to beat the Seahawks 28-24. Despite the win, Detroit is still last in the NFC North win a 3-4 record.

"It's nice to see Matthew display the form he showed from last year," Jim Schwartz said. "Finally. If he were an actor, that would be called a 'cameo.' And speaking of someone making an appearance on the 'big screen,' we need 'Megatron,' Calvin Johnson, to take the lead role for once this year. One would expect 'difference-makers' to 'make a difference.'"

Jacksonville hung tough in Green Bay before losing 24-15. Blaine Gabbert passed for 303 yards and a touchdown, while Aaron Rodgers led the Packers with 186 yards and 2 scores.

"We just traded Mike Thomas to the Lions," Mike Mularkey said. "We finally got out of Thomas what we had hoped for all along — value."

Lions win, 28-21.

Buffalo @ Houston (-11)

The Texans' 43-13 win over the Ravens clearly established them as the class of the AFC. Now, after a bye week, Gary Kubiak's team is anxious to prove they are the NFL's best.

"We've had two weeks to prepare for the Bills," Gary Kubiak said. "Usually, when a team is given two weeks to prepare for the Bills, they beat them in the Super Bowl. But we're not overconfident. You never know what can happen in this league. If we played the Bills 10 times, we'd probably win 10.

"It will be nice to see Mario Williams return to Houston. While he was a Texan, they called him 'Super Mario;' as a Bill, they call him 'Subpar Mario.' J.J. Watt is the NFL's current sack master and he definitely is not being paid $100 million. In fact, his pay is measured in the thousands. That's why he's called 'J.J. Kilo-Watt.'"

The Bills also enjoyed a bye week following a week 7 win. During the off-week, defensive end Mario Williams had surgery on his ailing left wrist. Williams says he'll be ready to play against his former team.

"The wrist feels better," Williams said. "I have better range of motion now. The Bills know what it's like to be 'stiffed;' now I do, too."

Williams gets to Matt Schaub twice on the day, once to say "hello" before the game, and again to congratulate him afterwards. Arian Foster rushes for 135 yards and two scores and takes the fourth quarter off.

Houston wins, 41-13.

Tampa Bay @ Oakland (-1½)

The Bucs manhandled the Vikings 36-17 in Minnesota last Thursday, improving their record to 3-4, still well behind the 7-0 Falcons. Rookie Doug Martin ran for 135 yards and a score, and added 79 yards receiving and a touchdown.

"Martin is a threat to win the NFC's offensive rookie of the year," Schiano said. "Unfortunately, voting was completed before the season started.

"I'm proud of our team. We're playing like a professional team, although we sometimes resort to college tactics. In fact, we're the only team that hazes our opponents."

The Raiders whipped the Chiefs 26-16 in Kansas City last week. The Raiders are now 3-4 and trail the division-leading Broncos by one game.

"The Bucs have always tried to be like the Raiders," Dennis Allen said, "right down to their mascot, which, like a Raider, is a marauding invader. So what you'll likely see from Tampa is a game plan they call the 'ape and pillage.'"

Tampa wins, 23-20.

Minnesota @ Seattle (-5)

Christian Ponder struggled in Minnesota's 36-17 Thursday night loss to the Buccaneers, completing only 19-of-35 passes with one TD and an interception. Seattle's defense will likely gear their defense to stop the run and force Ponder to beat them.

"We'd like to get Percy Harvin the ball more often," Leslie Frazier said. "He may the best player in the NFL, and likely the best quarterback in Minnesota."

Ponder will face a Seahawks defense that has been tough at home, with wins already over the Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots.

"For opposing quarterbacks," cornerback Richard Sherman said, "CenturyLink Stadium has been a 'Sea' of despair. I'm sure Ponder would like to add his name to the list of QB's who have won in Seattle. It's a short list. Only Aaron Rodgers is on it."

The Seahawks load the box on defense, shutting down Adrian Peterson early, and daring Ponder to beat them. Ponder opts for "truth," which is that he's not a very good quarterback.

Seattle wins, 27-16.

Pittsburgh @ NY Giants (-4½)

The Steelers shut down Robert Griffin III last week in a 27-12 Pittsburgh win over the Redskins. The Steelers have defeated two NFC East teams already this year and will look to make it three against the Giants in MetLife Stadium.

"Keep in mind," Mike Tomlin said. "We limited RG3 without Troy Polamalu, our best defender. As you know, Pittsburgh is known for its safety. New York, however, is not, neither on the field, or on Plaxico Burress' gun."

The Giants avenged their week 1 loss to the Cowboys with a 29-24 win in Dallas, holding on after racing to a 23-0 lead. While Eli Manning and the Giants' offense struggled, the New York defense forced 6 turnovers and sacked Tony Romo 4 times.

"Victor Cruz may lead the team in receptions," Manning said, "but the best 'receiver' on this team is the defense. When I fall back into bad habits, they're always there to catch me.

"We'll have to be ready for the Steelers. Dick LaBeau will certainly have something special to disrupt our offense. LaBeau is probably the NFL's most knowledgeable defensive coordinator. He remembers when defense actually did win championships. I'm surprised Nike hasn't tapped Dick for the 'LaBeau Knows' advertising campaign."

Manning and Ben Roethlisberger have four Super Bowl rings between them. They've seen it all, Big Ben more so in bathrooms. As such, Roethlisberger has the edge in "experience."

Pittsburgh wins, 27-23.

Dallas @ Atlanta (-3)

The Falcons improved to 7-0 with an impressive 30-17 win in Philadelphia last week, led by 262 yards passing and 3 touchdowns from Matt Ryan. Atlanta's closest pursuer in the NFC South race is the 3-4 Buccaneers.

"We could conceivably clinch the division in week 11," Mike Smith said. "After that, we want to clinch home-field advantage. Only then will we start worrying about the 1972 Dolphins and their undefeated season. That undefeated record has 'stood' for 40 years, which is more than can be said for the team's surviving members."

Dallas dug themselves a 23-0 hole against the Giants from which they could not escape, losing 29-24 to drop to 3-4.

"We nearly had the game won," Romo said, "but Dez Bryant's hand came down out of bounds. Usually, when Dez's hand comes down 'out of bounds,' it hits his mother's face.

"Of course, if Dez isn't making a spectacular catch out of bounds, he's making a routine drop in bounds. He's had a problem with drops all year. It could get worse in Atlanta, because it's nothing for Dez to go to a strip club and drop $5,000."

Bryant is disappointed when he realizes his "escort service" in Atlanta isn't quite what he expected. He recovers, and leads the Cowboys to an early 7-0 lead a first-quarter TD reception. However, Bryant is "put to bed early," not by his curfew, but by a big hit from free safety Thomas DeCoud in the second quarter.

In the end, the Falcons have too much offense, while Dallas has too much Jerry Jones.

Atlanta wins, 27-23.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans (-1½)

The Eagles fell into an early hole last week against the undefeated Falcons, falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter and 24-7 at the half. At 3-4, Philly trails the 6-2 Giants in the NFC East.

"We didn't know what hit us," Andy Reid said. "Neither did the Falcons, because nothing did. The moved the ball on us at will. I'm not sure who this 'Will' guy is, but Atlanta targeted him all day.

"I had a tough decision to make at quarterback. However, I decided not to bench Michael Vick. Even though I've already taught this team to roll over and play dead, I felt it unnecessary to teach Vick to 'sit.'"

The Saints' defense was carved up for 530 totals yards in a 34-14 loss in Denver last Sunday night. New Orleans ranks last in the league in total defense, and will certainly need a spark against the Eagles.

"How bad is our defense?" interim coach Joe Vitt said. "It's so bad, we're offering incentives for tackles. The brown paper sacks are back in New Orleans, but only when the Saints are on defense."

"Paul Tagliabue has been approved to hear our appeals in the 'bounty' case. We can only hope Tagliabue 'hears' better than Roger Goodell 'sees.'"

LeSean McCoy rushes for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns and the Eagles give Reid a very early going away present with a 38-27 win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 8:21 PM | Comments (2)

Is Their Method Rhetorical Madness?

As sports labor work stoppages go, this NHL lockout has got to be one of the most frustrating ones. When you break down the numbers, the NHL and NHLPA are frustratingly close to meeting in the middle — which is why the continued stalemate is causing millions of fans, sponsors, and employees to shake their head.

The problem is that rhetoric from both sides is tainting perception. If you looked strictly at a timeline of proposals and concessions, a lot of things would look like logical steps towards a mid-November solution, one that preserves the majority of the season and the Winter Classic. From fans and business sponsors, that would restore the season just when casual fans would normally be jumping on the bandwagon — NHL attendances are generally softest in October and November.

NHL rhetoric would have you believe that there is NO POSSIBLE WAY THEY COULD DO ANYTHING LESS than what they offered ... despite the fact that losing games post-November would eliminate the prime selling season for most teams, as well as anger major partners and sponsors — particularly NBC.

NHLPA rhetoric would have you believe that there is NO POSSIBLE WAY THEY COULD DO ANYTHING DIFFERENT than their proposal ... despite the fact that the players would lose far, far more money by sitting out an entire season compared to dropping one or two percentage points in hockey-related revenue this season.

So there's a logical tipping point and it zeroes in on mid-November. That preserves the Winter Classic (though rumors have it that the outdoor game will be threatened publicly by the end of the week) and the majority of the season when hockey tends to thrive at the box office and among local fan interest.

That then comes down to the question of how much of the rhetoric is just that and how much is true stubbornness. While it makes sense that both Gary Bettman and Donald Fehr will say anything to instill fear in the other side — fear that will theoretically cause further concessions before the true deadline, there's also the possibility that the two leaders and their constituents are so dug into their position that they'll sacrifice sensibility for pride.

Following the canceling of November's NHL calendar, players expressed outrage, which hasn't been particularly new, especially in the age of Twitter. However, as the clock ticks towards the end of October, some players have publicly grumbled about how the time has come to just sit down and do the right thing. You can bet some owners are feeling this way too; the league's gag order prevents this from being public while the 700+ players are free to say whatever they want — and they don't have decades of business experience to help hide their emotions. While this probably won't lead to an all-out PA mutiny such as the one that took place in 2005 against former PA head Bob Goodenow, it will probably lead to a greater urgency from the player's side to get back to the bargaining table.

Donald Fehr's goal is to get the best possible deal while maintaining calm and stability for his constituents. His response to these public fears is probably a private conversation reminding worried players that this is all part of the way the CBA game is played.

Gary Bettman must have received some urgent discussions from some markets — the ones that have made great strides in recent years (Tampa Bay Lightning, Nashville Predators) or are printing money hand over fist (New York Rangers, Toronto Maple Leafs). And just like Fehr, Bettman probably has a private conversation going over numbers and negotiating strategy.

In short, it seems like just about each step both the PA and the league have taken can almost mirror each other. In the end, representatives on both sides have acknowledged that a deal is within reach, and perhaps that's why they've both made similar public and private statements about negotiations. The gap itself is relatively small and one has to think that once both sides agreed to break from their hard-line stances, a deal can come together pretty quickly — especially because many non-financial issues have been resolved already.

If you're looking at this from a long-term business perspective and acknowledge, then the strategy from both sides seems to be this: hold the course until you reach the deadline for the most important revenue-generating months of the season, then quickly build a bridge and get going. By stripping out emotions and rhetoric, one can look at the breadcrumbs leading to this path and it all makes sense — and that, ultimately, means a resolution some time in the month of November (and you have to think that Detroit's Mike Ilitch will have some sway based on his Board Of Governors standing and the weight behind the Detroit-based Winter Classic).

That's if you're looking at things from a rational business perspective with the understanding that rhetoric is just that. But if the rhetoric goes deeper, if it represents a true emotional stubbornness on the sides of both leaders, we're in for a deep freeze. Let's hope that the businessmen remember that this is a business, not a contest.

Posted by Mike Chen at 12:55 PM | Comments (0)