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October 31, 2012

Defending America's Pastime

When people discover how much I love baseball, I sometimes get reactions like, "You watch baseball? Why? It's too slow and boring; there are way too many games. How can you stand it?"

I usually give them a simple answer: "I grew up with it," or, "it brings back memories of my dad and I playing ball in the backyard," or something similar. How do you describe the feeling you get when you hear the solid crack of a bat against a ball, and your favorite player hits a home run to win the game for your favorite team? How do you explain to them that this "boring" game is anything but, that there's often as much suspense watching two power pitchers duke it out as there is in a back-and-forth offensive slugfest? If these naysayers have never studied the history and traditions of the game, it's nearly impossible to get them jazzed about stories of great legends like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, and so many others who made baseball larger than life before many of us, including me, were even born.

I usually take the easy route with these discussions. But as this year's World Series began, and my son was bemoaning the fact he couldn't watch his favorite show on FOX because of "that baseball game," it got me to thinking maybe it's time to come to the defense of what used to be known as America's pastime, and why it still evokes the same Emotions in me now as it did when I first became a fan.

First, I love the game's unpredictability, especially during the postseason. How many of you predicted the Giants and Tigers would play in this year's Fall Classic? Yeah, that's what I thought; unless you're a fan of either team, not many. In the 2011 Series, most "experts" had the Texas Rangers easily dispatching the Cardinals. But St. Louis, after twice being within one strike of losing the Series in Game 6, got off the deck and won not only that game, but Game 7 to take the title. If you're a Minnesota Twins fan, you no doubt remember that beloved team who won the 1987 Fall Classic. (Heck, they even captured the hearts of non-baseball fans, who rooted for them to win).

Second, there are plenty of dramatic moments that fans still talk about years later. One of my favorite Fall Classic memories was Kirk Gibson's pinch-hit walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth in Game 1 of the 1988 Series, despite injuries to both legs. That gave the Dodgers a 5-4 win over Oakland, and the Series title in five games. I wasn't a fan of either team, but that inspiring moment will always stick with me. Boston Red Sox fans will always remember Bill Buckner's error that cost their team the Series in 1986, and Giants fans can still hear Russ Hodges screaming over and over, "The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant!" as he described Bobby Thompson's 1951 home run to beat the Dodgers. I could go on and on, there are so many, but you get the picture.

Third, there's no clock. In baseball, you can be down 10-0 in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and the bases empty. But the game isn't over until the final out is recorded or the losing team comes from behind and wins. Time is almost indefinite, no matter what the score is or how slim the chances of getting back in the game.

Fourth, you don't have runs taken away by penalties. I like football and basketball as much as the next person, but I cringe every time a flag is thrown or a whistle blows after my team scores. Chances are, those hard-earned points they just got will be wiped away by a silly penalty or foul. Not so in baseball.

Finally, I love reading about baseball greats from another era. Every sport has a story to tell, and is full of historic moments and great players, but none excite me as much as baseball. I can get just as caught up in reading the life story of Babe Ruth or Mickey Mantle as I do a good suspense novel. Those legends, and the stories behind their lives, are a great history lesson in events that shaped our society, whether it's the Roaring Twenties or World War II. It reminds us of a time before there ever was an Internet, cable or satellite television, and multimillion-dollar salaries. Back then, baseball truly was "America's Pastime."

I'm not naïve. We live in a fast-paced world. We want constant excitement, hard-hitting, even violent competition. Football has now become America's favorite sport to watch. Like all sports, baseball has had its share of scandal, most notably the "steroid era." A player can't have a breakout season without the first thought being, "is he doping?"

But I'll always be a baseball fan first, and I say it with pride. Now that San Francisco has swept Detroit, and this year's World Series is over, I'll watch some good pro and college football and basketball. But I'm already counting down the days until spring training starts another season. Hurry back, baseball!

Posted by Stephen Kerr at 6:07 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 33

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson started on the pole at Martinsville and captured a huge win, his sixth at the .526-mile track. Johnson passed Brad Keselowski with about 20 laps to go, and held off Kyle Busch down the stretch. He now leads the points standings with a 2-point edge over Brad Keselowski.

"I'll echo the sentiments of Dale Earnhardt, Jr.," Johnson said. "It's good to be back in the 'driver's seat.' Up to this point, Keselowski had a lock on the points lead. Well, that lock's been 'Jimmied.'"

2. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski opted to stay out on a late caution at Martinsville while the leaders pitted. He was quickly passed by Johnson and others on fresher tires. Still, Keselowski finished sixth, his best career finish at Martinsville, but lost the lead to Jimmie Johnson in the points standings.

"For refusing to play 'follow the leader,'" Keselowski said, "I was relegated to playing 'follow the leader.' I've lost my points lead, but not my spirit. Which is good, with it being Halloween. I may need a costume change, since I've been posing as a Sprint Cup champion."

3. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished fifth in the Tums Fast Relief 500, leading 154 of 500 laps, second only to Jimmie Johnson's 193. Bowyer moved up one spot in the point standings, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 26.

"I'll certainly need a boost," Bowyer said. "Luckily, as the driver of the 5-Hour Energy car, I've got that. Also, 5-Hour Energy helps you avoid the 'crash,' of which I'm hoping one will strike at Texas."

4. Denny Hamlin — Disaster struck at Martinsville for Hamlin, as electrical issues ruined his chances in the Tums Fast Relief 500, and likely the Cup championship. He finished 33rd, 34 laps down, and is now 49 points out of the lead in the point standings.

"I got 'clocked' at Kansas," Hamlin said. "I was hoping for the same at Martinsville by winning and receiving the grandfather clock trophy. As it was, I did get a clock, albeit one that struck midnight, which is obviously not our 'time.'"

5. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished third at Martinsville, posting his 11th top-five finish of the year. He is up to fourth in the point standings, and is still alive in the Chase For the Cup, albeit as a decided long shot.

"I'm having a great Chase run," Kahne said. "Not good enough to win this year's Cup, but good enough to be the favorite for next year's Cup. That's not really a position I want to be in. I don't want to be 'next year's Carl Edwards,' or any year's Carl Edwards, for that matter."

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led 92 laps and finished seventh at Martinsville, as three Hendrick cars finished in the top seven. Gordon is now sixth in the point standings, 54 out of first.

"It's good to run up front again," Gordon said. "For several laps near the end, I was running second to Jimmie Johnson, which is also known as running 'interference.'"

7. Kyle Busch — Busch chased Jimmie Johnson to the finish line at Martinsville, but couldn't get close enough for the pass and settled for second. It was Busch's fourth top-five finish of the Chase.

"I'm usually good in the Chase," Busch said, "unless I qualify for it."

8. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex struggled at Martinsville, finishing 23rd, one lap down. He is seventh in the point standings, 63 out of first.

"We know what we have to do in the last three races," Truex said. "How do we know? Because, in a winless season, it's the exact opposite of what we've done in the first 33 races."

9. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 14th in the Tums Fast Relief 500. He is eighth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 65 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I've got three more races with Roush Fenway," Kenseth said. "Hopefully, I can win one or more of those three contest. Or, I could, like many other drivers this year, announce that my wife and I are expecting another child. Either way, I would go out with a bang."

10. Greg Biffle — Biffle was the only Roush Fenway driver in the top 10 at Martinsville, his tenth besting the 14th of Matt Kenseth and 18th of Carl Edwards. Biffle is ninth in the point standings, 69 out of first.

"It's been a tough year for Jack Roush," Biffle said, "one that may require him to go back to the drawing board. For the man they call 'The Cat In The Hat,' I'm sure it won't be difficult to find a 'thinking cap.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:47 PM | Comments (0)

October 30, 2012

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* For the second time in the last three years, congratulations to the World Series champion San Francisco Giants.

* Speaking of the Giants, most NFL fans don't remember that the NFL's New York Giants are named after baseball's San Francisco Giants, who moved from New York in 1958. The NFL's Pittsburgh Steelers used to be called the Pirates, and the Washington Redskins began as the Boston Braves. Both the NFL and AAFC had teams called the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Yankees.

* I'm all for honoring the past, but the 1934 Steelers jerseys are ridiculous. Might as well make Tom Brady and the Patriots wear powdered wigs.

* Cam Newton leads the Panthers in rushing, by 100 yards.

* This weekend, Matt Hasselbeck threw his 200th career touchdown pass, and Peyton Manning threw his 416th. There are only two active players, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, with half as many passing TDs as Peyton.

***

If you adore ESPN, or simply don't care about my ranting, please skip a few paragraphs down and proceed to the power rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank. For the stout-hearted and grumpy, however...

I usually record Monday Night Football and pick it up late enough that I can fast-forward through commercials and Stuart Scott. This week, I watched in real time, and it was agonizing. ESPN has about a dozen commentators doing a job that only requires about three. Seriously, there's Chris Berman, Mike Ditka, Keyshawn Johnson, Cris Carter, Tom Jackson, Stuart Scott, Trent Dilfer, Steve Young, Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Lisa Salters. That would be overkill even if they all worked for free, but I suspect everyone except maybe Salters is pretty well compensated.

What was so painful this week wasn't the number of commentators, but the emptiness of their comments. A good sports broadcast entertains, educates viewers, and elevates the sophistication of public opinion. ESPN's broadcast just parrots public opinion. Once in a while, Young or Gruden accidentally provides insight or analysis, but it doesn't make up for having your IQ forcibly lowered by the rest of the crew.

I've come to peace with Berman, but the other four studio guys are clowns. Dilfer is okay, Salters is pointless, Tirico has become a hack, and Stuart Scott is an insult to everyone who understands anything about sports. Why not just use Berman, Adam Schefter and/or Chris Mortensen, and the two guys in the booth? That won't fix everything — Tirico and Gruden's booth will still be the Chamber of Conventional Wisdom — but at least it will streamline the nonsense. ESPN's NFL coverage would benefit from a lot more critical thinking. Fans can get more insight from fantasy football writers than highly-paid television analysts.

The one great aspect of MNF is the camera work and attention to replays. If it's not the best produced game of the week, it's close. It just needs a brain to go with all those mouths.

1. Houston Texans [1] — They're 6-1, and it's a strong 6-1. They've beaten the Broncos and Ravens, and four of the wins were by 20 points or more. The loss came against Green Bay. Houston and Atlanta are the only teams without a road loss this season.

2. Atlanta Falcons [3] — Explosive offense has created joyous fantasy owners, with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez all among the top scorers at their positions. So would you believe the Falcons rank 8th in passing yards per game, and 13th in total offense? Those three receivers account for 66% of Atlanta's receptions, 77% of its receiving yards, and 76% of its receiving touchdowns. Ryan ranks 8th in passing yardage, but including a rushing TD, he's 3rd in scoring.

3. Denver Broncos [8] — The Broncos have improved with Peyton Manning. I don't mean just because he's better than Tim Tebow; the other players have improved. Willis McGahee is having a career year. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker have progressed from having potential to realizing it. The Broncos look better every time I see them. They're playing smart, and holding themselves to a very high standard. It's remarkable, really.

4. San Francisco 49ers [4] — The announcers gushed over Alex Smith's 18/19 passing stats — which was incredible after Jon Gruden complained that he doesn't like stats — and mentioned that Smith broke the record for ... most pass attempts in a game with only one incompletion. Wow, right there with Unitas' 47 in a row, isn't it? Smith had a fine game against a good defense, but San Francisco would have won with Jim Druckenmiller at QB. The Niner defense has kept four of its last five opponents out of the end zone.

5. Chicago Bears [2] — I'm just going to reprint last week's entry: Chicago is +12 in turnovers, but just 26th in offensive yards per game, while Jay Cutler ranks 23rd in passer rating (78.9). A great team forces turnovers, but it has to be able to win without them, too. I'm not sure the Bears can win when they don't get takeaways. Numbers updated (and even worse than last week).

6. Green Bay Packers [6] — Their victory over the lowly Jaguars was uncomfortably close, yes. But they did it without half a dozen starters, including impact players like Charles Woodson and Jordy Nelson. Woodson's out for a while, but most of the others are expected back on the field soon. Don't panic.

7. New England Patriots [7] — Scored 45 straight points in their rout of the Rams. Who needs Aaron Hernandez and Logan Mankins? The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring, yardage, first downs, third down conversions, third down percentage, turnover differential, and point differential.

8. New York Giants [5] — Second consecutive nail-biter. Washington and Dallas are decent teams, but if the Giants are really a top-5 team, they shouldn't need back-to-back miracles to keep their win streak alive. The Giants are tied with the Bears for most interceptions in the NFL (16), and no one else is close (next-best is 10).

9. Pittsburgh Steelers [10] — Fans were buzzing with excitement after Pittsburgh imprisoned RG3 and the offense broke out against Washington. There's been a lot of talk recently about new offensive coordinator Todd Haley and his "dink and dunk" offense. The chart below shows how Ben Roethlisberger's 2012 performance compares to his 2011 campaign and to league averages for the last season and a half.

Roethlisberger's net yards per attempt (which includes sacks) are virtually equal: 6.81 this year and 6.89 last season. But he's taking fewer hits, his interception percentage has been cut in half, and the Steelers are converting more third downs (52%, 2nd in NFL). Pittsburgh's offense hasn't looked this good since Swann and Stallworth. Call it dink and dunk, but it's working.

10. Baltimore Ravens [11] — As a whole, the AFC North is 10-4 at home (.714) and 4-11 away (.267) in 2012. Since John Harbaugh joined the team, Baltimore is unstoppable at home (31-5, .861) and just average on the road (18-17, .514). Three of the next four games are on the road. The Ravens are last in the NFL in time of possession, 26:06, a deficit of nearly 8 minutes per game.

11. Seattle Seahawks [9] — I didn't see this game. Was there a reason they stopped giving the ball to Marshawn Lynch (12 att, 105 yds, 8.8 avg, TD)? The 12 carries were a season-low for Lynch. Actually, after taking at least 20 handoffs in each of the first five games, Lynch has fewer than 20 in each of the last three. It's hard to say why; he's obviously their best player on offense, and all the games have been close.

12. Miami Dolphins [19] — Tremendous performance by their defense. The Jets' first-half drives: three-and-out, blocked punt, lost fumble, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, missed field goal. The second half was less dominant, but by that time it was 20-0. The Dolphins allow just 18 points per game, 5th-best in the NFL.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [20] — Since the bye, they're 2-1, with both wins by 19+ points. In 2010, Josh Freeman looked like a rising star, a young QB every bit as promising as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. In 2011, he looked like a mess. Now, he's hot again. In his last four games, Freeman has averaged 327 yards per game, with 10 TD and just 2 INT, a 105.5 passer rating.

14. Minnesota Vikings [12] — Lost two of their last three, and QB Christian Ponder has become a clear problem. Halfway through the season, he has only one 300-yard passing game, and no TD passes of 20 yards or more. He ranks near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and yards per game. After a promising start in the first three weeks (4 TD, 0 INT, 104.9 rating), Ponder has thrown an interception in four straight games, and passed for under 120 yards in two of the last five weeks (74.6 rating). The Vikings are last or tied for last in pass plays of 20+ and 40+ yards.

15. Philadelphia Eagles [13] — Two years ago, Michael Vick was an MVP candidate. Now, he may be benched for a rookie third-round draft pick who never won a bowl game. That's what he gets for messing up Andy Reid's 13-0 after-the-bye streak.

16. Washington Redskins [14] — The storyline coming out of their loss to the Bumblebees Convicts Steelers was "at least 10" dropped passes. That's a high standard for catchable balls, though; about half of those were broken up by yellow-and-black-striped defenders. Santana Moss was inexplicably charged with a "drop" that was knocked down by Ike Taylor, and he scored a touchdown two plays later. His drop in the fourth quarter, on 4th-and-17, was short of a first down and had no impact on the result. Darrel Young's drop may have been intentional; the pass was made under pressure and he probably would have lost yardage if he caught it. Did the receivers miss some catchable passes? Yes. But this was a 27-12 loss, and drops weren't the difference. The biggest problem in Washington is pass defense. There's no pass rush, and the defensive backfield is terrible.

17. Dallas Cowboys [15] — Came within a fingertip of winning. Literally. Jason Witten broke his own single-game record for receptions by a tight end, and tied Brandon Marshall for third-most at any position. Top six single-game reception totals in Cowboy history:

1. Jason Witten, 18 (Week 8)
2. Jason Witten, 15 (2007)
3. Jason Witten, 14 (2009)
t4. Jason Witten, 13 (Week 4)
t4. Dez Bryant, 13 (Week 6)
t4. Lance Rentzel, 13 (1967)

18. Detroit Lions [24] — Finally found some secondary targets and got the offense going, converting 12/16 third downs and scoring 4 touchdowns. Placekicker Jason Hanson hasn't attempted a field goal in two weeks.

19. New Orleans Saints [17] — This team has so many different leaders, it doesn't have any leadership. Who's running the show? Is it new interim coach Joe Vitt? Previous interim coach Aaron Kromer? Quarterback Drew Brees? Head coach in absentia Sean Payton? Owner Tom Benson? The defense is a mess, and the offense is just Brees throwing a lot, without any cohesive strategy apparent. I question whether there's anyone on this team whom Brees answers to.

20. San Diego Chargers [16] — They've now lost three in a row, and they're under .500. The AFC is not deep this year, and there's no reason San Diego shouldn't challenge for a wild card, but I doubt it will happen. The loss in Cleveland was seriously demoralizing. As Dan Patrick noted, "You should be able to accidentally score a touchdown against Cleveland."

21. New York Jets [18] — If you're a fantasy football player, Mark Sanchez had a decent game on Sunday: 283 yards, TD, INT. If you're a Jets fan, though, Sanchez dropped back 59 times, with 264 yards (under 4.5 per play) and 2 turnovers. And even if you're a fantasy owner, why the hell is Mark Sanchez on your team?

22. Indianapolis Colts [28] — Beat the Titans with red zone defense, a nice play in overtime, and Reggie Wayne. Wayne leads the NFL in receiving yards (757) and first downs (38). The Colts defense has only 2 interceptions this season, fewest in the league.

23. Cincinnati Bengals [23] — Two tough games coming up (Broncos and Giants), but they're in the middle of a really cushy travel schedule. From Weeks 7-12, the Bengals have one road game, four home games, and a bye. That's one road game in a month and a half.

24. St. Louis Rams [22] — The Patriots scored touchdowns on each of their first five possessions. Meanwhile, St. Louis ranks 31st in points per game, and hasn't topped 20 in any game since September 16 (Week 2).

25. Oakland Raiders [27] — Won in Kansas City for the sixth year in a row. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won 8 of their last 9 in Oakland. In one of the league's fiercest rivalries, the away team has won 11 of the last 12.

26. Cleveland Browns [30] — Won two of their last three, no thanks to the passing game. Against San Diego, Brandon Weeden's 29 pass attempts resulted in 11 completions, 16 incompletions, and 2 sacks, for a total of 117 yards, 4.0 per play. The Browns punted on nine consecutive possessions this week.

27. Tennessee Titans [25] — Allowed 30 first downs against the Colts, and they're among the bottom five in every major defensive category.

28. Arizona Cardinals [21] — It's difficult to evaluate John Skelton and LaRod Stephens-Howling behind such an atrocious offensive line. I've probably seen a team with a worse line at some point, but I can't think of one.

29. Carolina Panthers [26] — Out-gained the Bears by over 200 yards (416-210), destroyed them in third down percentage (53%-25%), won the turnover battle (3-2), committed fewer penalties (3-5), won time of possession by nearly a whole quarter (36:38-23:22), and lost. They went 1/4 in the red zone, and punter Brad Nortman had one of the worst games in memory. His three kicks netted 25, 35, and 6 yards. Ron Rivera's disastrous prevent defense ("We were trying to keep the ball in front of us ... We were trying to make them systematically beat us.") merits a Dishonorable Mention. The Observer's Scott Fowler notes that Rivera is now 1-10 in games decided by seven points or fewer.

30. Buffalo Bills [29] — Their Achilles heel is run defense; their saving grace is red zone offense. The Bills have more than four times as many touchdowns (22) as field goals (5), by far the best ratio in the league, 4.40 to 1. The Saints are 2nd (3.43:1), the Packers 3rd (2.89), and the Broncos 4th (2.78). Fine company.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — Just 9 touchdowns this season, the only team still in single-digits. 16 teams — half the league — have at least twice as many TDs as the Jags. But they've had two close losses since the bye, with two winnable home games (Lions and Colts) coming up.

32. Kansas City Chiefs [31] — Their Week 3 overtime win stopped the clock, so technically, they haven't led for a single second this season. The Chiefs are -18 in turnover differential, by far the worst mark in the league.

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Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:15 PM | Comments (0)

Early Tourneys: The Heavy Hitters

The turn of the century has brought us some new showcase events that we can lean on to get through the holidays. Rivalry football games are fantastic. But, sometimes they leave a bad taste of lop-sided victories on our palettes. The excitement of the non-conference, lesser-seen opponents has waned. Enter these tournaments, with a renewed sense of those matchups we wouldn't see in the middle of a season.

The "infant" tourneys seem to be on a rotation of which one gets the studded lineup. This year, these two selections are headlining the new wave.

Old Spice Classic

The Orlando-based tournament is becoming quite the hot spot for basketball over the last few years. Maybe it's the (relatively) warm Florida sunshine. Maybe it's a chance for these college kids to relive their childhood at Disneyworld. Whatever the reason, this event has the allure to bring in both big names and top-flight sleepers. That makes for a nice mix title holders (from inaugural winner Arkansas to 2011 champ Dayton). This year's edition should be no different. However, just for decision's sake...

Which "repeat matchup" would be better?

West Virginia could be in an interesting dilemma should they reach the tournament final. On the opposite side of the bracket stands two schools that the Mountaineers will become pretty acquainted with over the season. One is Gonzaga, whom Bob Huggins' squad will play on Nov. 12th. That's less than two weeks before the Classic field convenes in Central Florida.

Then there's the case of Oklahoma. Because of recent conference realignment, the Mountaineers and Sooners are now Big 12 rivals. Even with all the warning sign, the committee that puts this event together couldn't have seen this circumstance popping up. (But they must be stoked to have a little more juice at hand.)

And the winner is ... Gonzaga. The Sooners might not be ready for the bright lights, yet. They'll still be learning the system of new coach Lon Kruger by that time. The Bulldogs should be up to their normal pre-conference status of dangerous upstart.

Which "mid-major" will make the most noise?

The logical choice for ‘team with the best chance to win' would be the Zags. Mark Few doesn't have much trouble getting his teams to perform well in November. It's getting over the hump in March that's been his bug-a-boo.

Tim Floyd continues his trek back to respectability in "league of second chances" Conference USA. His UTEP Miners will look to build the program back to a postseason stalwart after slipping back to mediocrity.

The wild card will be Marist. The Red Foxes don't look like much on paper. They took plenty of lumps last season (finishing eighth in the MAAC), but finished strong, winning seven out of their final ten. The vast majority of their team is back, losing only one senior to graduation.

However, the team I'd look out for most is Davidson. Bob McKillop is the epitome of wiley veteran coach. He rode Stephen Curry to an Elite Eight back in 2008. He returned his program to the NCAAs in 2012, getting knocked out in the first round by eventual national semifinalist Louisville. That team is back intact. All five starters return for another run at a Southern Conference title and a deeper run in the Big Dance. With Vanderbilt undergoing a massive rebuilding project, this could kick start a mini-run to a bigger run for the Wildcats.

Battle 4 Atlantis

All right. I'll admit to being a homer on this one. I remembered the tournament season was set a couple of weeks back, when I looked up the season schedules of Missouri (team I root for above all others) and Minnesota (where I live now). One common element was this site. So I wondered who else might be in the field. After looking it up, all I could say was "Daaaaannnnnngggg!"

This field is loaded with talent and experience. Each team received at least one vote in the AP Preseason poll (for what it's worth). Every squad in this field made the NCAA or NIT in March. The three from the NIT look to take that final step to the field of 68. The NCAA participants want to get back to where they were on the Ides of March ... still playing for a shot at the national title.

Which NIT finalist can make the deeper run?

Stanford and Minnesota met at Madison Square Garden for the NIT championship. The Cardinal came out on top, and both teams return quite a bit of the cores to make an even loftier run. The two teams get tough tests in their first-round matchups. The Cardinal face Mizzou, and the Gophers get Duke. While it'll be good to get these rebuilding squads early, the Blue Devils have more in the cupboard coming back than the Tigers.

If Minnesota gets by Duke, I think they have a good chance to get to the tourney finals ... but that's a bigger if than Stanford beating Missouri. So, in the spirit of answering the question, I'll pick Stanford as the one with the better chance at a deep run. That being said...

Which "disappointee" will recover better?

Dateline: Friday, March 16th, 2012. Half the field had played in their first game of the NCAAs. No big shockers really happened the day before. It appeared to stay that way through the quartet of games. But everything changed in the late part of the afternoon. By dinnertime, two-seed Missouri had fallen pray to the force known as Norfolk State. By bedtime, two-seed Duke befell the same fate, this time to mighty Lehigh. It was the first time in the current format of the tournament that multiple second seeds were gone before the round of 32.

Both programs have had to sit on that disappointment for nearly eight months. Now, they slowly start to forget on the court. Both teams are different. The Blue Devils lost lottery pick Austin Rivers in the draft, as well as oldest the of the Plumlee brothers (Miles). The Tigers were hit harder, losing five seniors to graduation (including Marcus Denmon, Ricardo Ratliff, and Kim English).

With their transfer-heavy lineup, I expect MU to make more noise later in the season. But I think Duke will stay near the top of the heap all season, including playing well in the Bahamas.

How many teams will make this experience pay off in March?

Usually, these early season tournaments will show some indications of who can make a deep run at the right time of the year. However, we can't foresee injuries, suspensions, and lack of chemistry. For me, the talent in this field sets the over/under at 5.5. Unless catastrophe strikes, Louisville, Duke, and Memphis should be locks. Missouri's a strong "should be." That leaves four teams at ‘maybe' or higher. Stanford and VCU should be in the top three of their respective conferences. And don't sleep on Minnesota's experience and UNI's strength of league. Bottom line, if six teams out of this bunch don't make the field in March, I'll be stunned.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:49 AM | Comments (0)

October 29, 2012

Can Anyone Stop Alabama?

This year's entire 2012 season comes down to one simple question.

Can anyone, anyone at all, stop Nick Saban and Alabama from winning yet another national title?

Right now, the answer seems to be no.

What Saban is building in Tuscaloosa is bigger than what Pete Carroll had going at USC. It resembles the Miami days of the 1980s, except cleaner. It is a well-oiled, clean, efficient offense coupled with a brutal, vicious uncompromising defense. And this year, it is been on complete cruise control going through the most celebrated conference in football.

This weekend, College GameDay is heading to Baton Rouge to see if LSU can end the 'Bama reign of terror in the SEC. Without question, this is the Tide's biggest test. LSU is big, athletic, and carries a massive chip on their shoulders following their dismal performance in last January's BCS title game. And yet, in the eyes of most, Alabama should win this game. While both defenses are tough, 'Bama's offense, despite losing Trent Richardson, is significantly better than what the Tigers bring to the table.

Quick, how many interceptions has 'Bama QB A.J. McCarron thrown this year? None. Not one.

You'd think losing a back the caliber of Richardson would slow the 'Bama offense this year. It hasn't. You'd think losing guys like Mark Barron and Courtney Upshaw would make the 'Bama defense more vulnerable this year. It's not.

The fact is, Nick Saban is the Coach K of college football. He doesn't rebuild, he reloads. This is far more impressive, considering that Saban's reloading comes at a much larger scale.

So we come to the debate of comparing the best of the BCS against Alabama. Which, if any, pose a serious threat?

Kansas State? Nope. Give Saban one month to watch video of Collen Klein and it would be quick and painful. If Arkansas could shut Klein down last year, what would Alabama do them with a month of defensive planning under Saban?

Oregon? Not likely. While the Ducks have an offense that is incredibly fun and loaded with speed, one wonders if their players could keep up with four quarters of 'Bama bruising. It would be a decent game, but remember, Oregon consistently is among the worst in the nation in time of possession. Give 'Bama that much clock and it might be near impossible for the Ducks to stop.

LSU? No, see above.

Georgia/Florida? Both are possibilities in the SEC title game. While Georgia has a good defense, it's not nearly as good as Alabama's. And, while UGA has a good QB in Aaron Murray, the Bulldogs struggled mightily against a South Carolina team who could create pressure on the quarterback with just their defensive line. I could see a repeat here. As for Florida, same story on defense with an offense that's becoming more anemic. Big edge to the Tide.

Notre Dame? By far, the best chance.

The Irish have a great defense. Te'o is an absolute beast and is deserving of true Heisman consideration. If you don't agree, go back to the Oklahoma game and watch that fourth quarter interception. They have a great quarterback system and veteran leadership that keeps them grounded and focused. When Oklahoma tied the game midway through the fourth quarter, the Irish dominated the game when it mattered.

The knock on Notre Dame is that they've escaped one too many times. The goal line drama against Stanford, the clinging at the end against BYU. The last second victory over a mediocre Purdue squad. This is a team that appears to play to the level of their opponent. Playing against Alabama would require them to step it up a few notches. And, while the edge would still favor the Crimson Tide, the Fighting Irish might be the one team that could pull off the upset.

Even then, the Irish would have to leapfrog Kansas State somehow.

Regardless, it doesn't look like the crystal football is leaving the Alabama state line anytime soon.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 5:21 PM | Comments (0)

World Series Game 4: Too Late Tigers

"We could not find our game in the World Series," Miguel Cabrera mourned, while the San Francisco Giants partied heartily in Comerica Park's visiting clubhouse. Actually, the Detroit Tigers found their game in Game 4, when they needed it most. The problem was finding it against these San Francisco Giants, who were so accustomed to playing with elimination a game away they didn't know how to get comfortable on the threshold of a sweep.

When Marco Scutaro drove home Ryan Theriot in the top of the 10th with a little help from Tiger center fielder Austin Jackson's offline throw home, breaking a three-all tie and just itching to hand Sergio (Arrivederci) Romo the ball to close out the 4-3 clincher, it was the play of a Giants team to whom Berra's Law proves inscrutable and incontrovertible.

For these Giants, it never really was over until it was over. Not when the Cincinnati Reds manhandled them in both San Francisco games to open the division series; not when the St. Louis Cardinals had them on the brink of a five-game League Championship Series wipeout; and not even when they had the Tigers on the eve of destruction after winning the first three Series games.

And for these Tigers, fate could not have been more heartless on the night they finally rediscovered the game the Giants had pitched, gloved, and swatted out from under them since Pablo Sandoval, the eventual Series MVP, bludgeoned Justin Verlander for openers last Wednesday.

There was Cabrera, their Triple Crown winner, who'd finally snapped out of his own deep enough Series sleep, giving the Tigers the first and only lead they'd enjoy all Series long with a third-inning two run homer hit right into the bristling rightward winds, standing in against Romo with two out in the bottom of the tenth. And there was Romo, having rung up Jackson on a diet of sliders and pinch-hitter Joe Kelly with a diet of sliders until swishing him with another fastball, feeding Cabrera the same diet before shoving a fastball right on the middle of the strike zone floor, freezing Cabrera completely for game, set, Series, and season.

"You've got to enjoy the moment," crowed Kung Fu Panda, after winning his hardware and his Corvette, a man savoring every one of them after having been all but a non-entity when the Giants dumped the Texas Rangers to win it two years ago. "You never know when it's gonna happen again."

If there's one thing the Tigers would love never to happen again, it's their absolute futility on pitches in the strike zone all Series long. They hit a mere .175 on pitches in the zone and a jaw-dropping .059 on pitches right down the pipe. When Romo fired that Series-ending strike in on Cabrera, it could have been the poster pitch for that strike zone futility.

Romo should enjoy the moment in the history zone. Only one other pitcher has struck out the side to end any World Series, the Yankees' Joe Page doing it to end the 1949 Series.

Cabrera may have made it 2-1 after three — Brandon Belt had hung up the early 1-0 Giants lead with an RBI triple bounding off the right field corner wall — but he wasn't the only man on either side rediscovering his game Sunday night. Buster Posey, the Giants' catcher, who'd taken a .273 Series batting average into Game 4 with nothing to show for it but a single RBI, caught hold of a 1-0 service from Tiger starter Max Scherzer with one out and Scutaro aboard (a leadoff infield single on a tough chopper to third) and drove it into the left field seats barely a hair past the foul pole net.

That made it 3-2, Giants. And Delmon Young, who'd gone hitless in the DH slot for the Tigers in Game Three but singled to open the Tiger second, stepped in with two outs against Giants starter Matt Cain in the bottom of the sixth and hit the first pitch into the wind and the right field seats a la Cabrera to tie it up.

"The wind usually blows to right at this time of year," Hall of Famer Al Kaline said before the game. It ended up doing the Tigers one favor short of what they'd need to extend the Series.

All night long, no Tiger coach called for an insane baserunning play. No Tiger hitter went up to the plate trying to hit a six-run homer with every swing. No Tiger pitcher threw a careless pitch, no Tiger fielder fell asleep when little adjustments were required. And it still wasn't enough to keep Scutaro from puncturing left-hander Phil Coke, the Tigers' postseason closer by default, for a floating liner up the pipe falling in for the hit.

Maybe that was the only true mistake Detroit manager Jim Leyland made all Sunday night, if not all Series long. You can't blame Leyland for having been impressed by Coke having struck out all seven men he'd faced in the Series, including the side he struck out in the ninth, before returning for the top of the 10th. But five were portside hitters and two were Hunter Pence, mostly a lost cause at the plate if still a value in the field or the clubhouse.

Leyland might have — should have? — brought in either Joaquin Benoit or Al Albuquerque, right-handers each, to deal with Angel Pagan. Or, when Coke got lucky enough to strike out Pagan, Scutaro. Leyland stayed with Coke and Scutaro stayed with Coke, too, long enough to shoot that floating liner into center field. The eventual winning RBI re-exposed Coke's wounding weakness: right-handed hitters can't wait to face him. They hit .396/.446/.604 on him in the regular season.

As Theriot went Road Runner off second Jackson hustled in to scoop up Scutaro's fallen liner. And he threw home high and off line, the ball traveling to the first base side of the plate as Theriot traveled across it with a right-leaning slide.

Even in a game in which the Tigers stopped making strategic mistakes to that moment, even in a game in which they found some early and timely hitting at last, it was insufficient. When Romo blasted strike three in on Cabrera for game, set, and Series, Leyland turned about face as sharply as a military training recruit on parade and stepped down quietly into his clubhouse.

"I would have never guessed we'd have swept the Yankees," Leyland said soberly after it ended, "and I would have never guessed the Giants swept us. We've got nothing to complain about. We didn't score enough runs. And they were terrific. It really turned out to be no contest."

Scherzer and Cain tangled in a fine battle, each going into the seventh with only three runs on each other's jackets, even if two Detroit relievers (rookie Drew Smyly, traveled-enough veteran Octavio Dotel) had to end the seventh for Scherzer and Prince Fielder — otherwise an extremely quiet Tiger presence all Series long — had to start an unusual 3-6-1 double play, picking off Sandoval's hard grounder, stepping on the pad, and catching Scutaro in a rundown, to block an eighth-inning threat.

There was no single hero for the Giants. There may have been no single villain for the Tigers, even if you could point to Cabrera's and Fielder's futility entering Game Four. The Tigers were simply out-pitched, out-hit, out-defended, and even out-managed in the first three games. When they finally pulled the dissemblies back together for Game 4, the Giants simply turned out to have one extra card to the Tigers' empty deck.

Maybe the Tigers simply underestimated these Giants, who'd been on the elimination brink so often this Series you could have been forgiven for thinking they might suddenly awaken after sleeping off Game 3 and wonder just what on earth they were supposed to do now, nowhere near elimination, in near-complete control of a postseason set for the first time.

Unfortunately for Detroit, the Giants never forgot how to play the kind of ball that got them here. Not when they battered Justin Verlander in Game 1; not when they out-executed the Tigers in 2 and 3; and not when they were finally faced with what the Athletics and the Yankees faced and buckled beneath come Game 4.

They kept the Tigers to a .156 Series batting average. They outscored the Tigers 16-6. The Giants pitching staff shows a 1.42 Series ERA. And they seemed to play every inning from the first in Game One through the 10th in Game 4 as if they were one pitch, one play, from being punched one-way tickets home.

Sandoval may be going home with the Series MVP trophy, and it's hard to gainsay when he hung up — you're not seeing things — a 2.212 Series OPS, even if he didn't score or drive in a single run following his Game 1 mayhem. But you could make a case for just about the entire team earning the honor.

"They're such an unselfish group," manager Bruce Bochy said of his charges, who'd turned role inversion into a fine art all season long, largely because they had no choice and because they knew they wouldn't win otherwise, and almost couldn't have cared less who stood in the spotlight turns at any given time.

Sooner or later, just about everyone in a Giant uniform would draw some light his way before it all ended with strikeout, a trophy, and a wall-to-wall champagne bath.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:10 PM | Comments (0)

October 28, 2012

World Series Game 3: Tigers Look Broken

If the Detroit Tigers are still wondering where they have to go to buy a break, never mind a key hit with men on base or a key pitch to keep the San Francisco Giants from sneaking another couple of runs home, it's understandable to a small extent.

Even if they, too, have no idea where the store and the costs might be. Even if wondering where to buy a break might not be the right questions for the Tigers to ask themselves.

They probably should be asking how they can finally puncture the walls put up by the Giants' pitching staff, how to bring down those built Ford tough by the Giants' defense. They probably should be asking, too, how a Triple Crown winner facing a feel-good-story pitcher couldn't find a way to overthrow an early Giant lead with the bases loaded in the fifth.

And never mind the usual suspects around the San Francisco infield. Saturday night, left fielder Gregor Blanco added his own defensive theft to his own offensive injury in the bottom of the ninth, when Jhonny Peralta finally got the inner fastball he craved, from closer Sergio Romo and ripped it all the way down the left field line. Blanco ran practically the full left field spread to snatch it, before it might rap off the wall on the line, perhaps, possibly taking a track sprint that might turn into an extra base or two.

Forget trying to find that store. The way things have gone for these Tigers through the first three World Series games, with their luck they'd be held up at gunpoint the moment they walked through the door. By the security guards.

It was bad enough that Blanco opened the Giants' scoring in the top of the second when he hit a long triple to the gap in right center, unreachable by either Austin Jackson or Andy Dirks, and came home soon enough when Brandon Crawford lined a single to center and took second as Detroit center fielder Austin Jackson let the hop sail just about through his armpit. When Blanco ran down and snatched Peralta's four-wood line flyer in the ninth, you could feel the Comerica Park audience deflate like a balloon punctured by a spear.

The Tigers went from being shut out only twice in the regular season to being shut out on back-to-back World Series nights. They let Anibal Sanchez's gutsy seven-inning, two-run start vaporise when they couldn't find a way to push anything across the plate. They had four men in scoring position overall, including the bases loaded, on Ryan Vogelsong, the well-traveled, concurrently well-chronicled San Francisco starter, whose evening would finish with a 3-0 record this postseason with a 1.09 ERA in four starts.

They couldn't even steal a single run out of all that, never mind bludgeon one. And the Giants infield continued turning double plays as if ordering them in advance from Netflix.

Quntin Berry, starting in left field so smooth-hitting Dirks could start in right and Delmon Young could DH, wrung a one-out walk out of Vogelsong in the bottom of the first, and Miguel Cabrera singled him to second. But Prince Fielder, with the audience rocking, waiting for their big man to go Pablo Sandoval, dialed the first of two Area Code 4-6-3s the Tigers would dial in the first three innings. Marco Scutaro vacuumed the grounder and whipped it to shortstop Crawford, who whipped it on to first baseman Brandon Belt, in rhythm so synchronous you thought the Giants had it as a workout warmup.

The trio did it practically as an instant replay two innings later. Almost the same action on the grounder. Almost the same action on the throws from Scutaro and Crawford. The only difference was the Tiger personnel coming up short. Berry rapped the grounder and Jackson — who'd reached with two outs when Sandoval hustled in for his slow roller in front of third but couldn't get the throw to first in time — was nailed at second to start the dial.

And even those two killings couldn't equal the friendly fire that closed out a bottom of the fifth featuring the kind of scenario the Tigers on the season usually turned into curtains for the other guys.

They had Vogelsong on the hook for ducks on the pond, after back-to-back one-out singles (catcher Alex Avila, second baseman Omar Infante, both lining them the other way to right field) and a full count walk. (Jackson.) But Berry struck out on a high fastball. Well, no problem, say the M-V-P chants embracing Cabrera at the plate.

He sent the chants to eardrum-shredding pitch hitting a long foul down the right field line. "He almost dunked one in on me there," Vogelsong said with a slight shudder after the game. "Two seamer and he got his hands in and almost hit a double. That would have messed things up big time."

The only big-time mess-up would be at the Tigers' expense. Cabrera popped the next pitch so high over the left side of the infield that Crawford could have opened up a lawn chair, an umbrella, and a six-pack, and still caught it for the side. If the Tigers end up getting swept, you can just about secure yourself in the knowledge that that at-bat will be considered one of the top candidates in any poll asking, "When did you believe the World Series was really over?"

An inning later, the Tigers tried a little Giant-style pecking of their own and left the Giants without even a chip. Young with one out bounced one up the third base line that might have had infield hit stamped on it, but Sandoval grabbed it deftly and threw long, low, and on the short hop for Belt to sweep up next to the pad for the out.

Dirks followed with a five-pitch walk, ending Vogelsong's night and beginning Tim Lincecum's, and the right-hander with the wingflap hair got Peralta to loft a two-strike fly to right for the side. If the Tigers thought that kind of contact out might indicate a small chink in Lincecum's bullpen armour, they were disabused firmly enough over the next two innings.

Lincecum took a grounder up the side of the grass to first base himself to dispatch Avila opening the seventh before a fly out, an unexpected walk, and a pounding three-pitch strikeout ended that inning. And, he followed Crawford's lunging grab of Cabrera's eighth-inning, broken bat leadoff hopper to strike out Fielder on three pitches and, around a tweener hop turned to a throwing error allowing Young aboard, to strike out Dirks on four pitches to end that stab.

"Tonight he was remarkable," Vogelsong said of Lincecum, who'd bounded back to the dugout after the sixth and wrapped him in a brotherly hug, knowing Vogelsong wasn't quite ready or willing to come out of the game. "Every time he's come out of the pen [this postseason] I thought his stuff's been really good. He's really turned it up a notch."

Lincecum's regular-season slump got him bumped to the bullpen for the postseason, other than a single shaky start in the League Championship Series. Out of the pen he's been impossible since going to the stretch. He has an 0.69 ERA in all his postseason relief gigs. "It allows me to just think about one thing," he says of his from-the-stretch working, "and that's sight of the target. At times it can still get away for me and I can still think about the wrong things. But most of the times it works."

It got bad enough for the Tigers that, perhaps out of quiet desperation, manager Jim Leyland brought in Phil Coke, lately his closer in all but name, for what seemed a parallel purpose, get him some much-needed work at all since the long between-series layoff and keep the Giants quiet for one more inning, anyway. For all the good that ended up doing.

The Tiger infield let you know the story early enough. During that two-run second, at one point, Cabrera stood at third base with his hands on his hips, perhaps wondering to himself why these Giants weren't anything like the pushovers the Yankees had proven in the League Championship Series. Peralta poked and pushed on the shortstop dirt. Infante turned his back to the infield completely, even for a few seconds. Fielder just stared at the pad at first a few moments, like he'd just hung up a notice offering a reward for his lost dog.

Cabrera and Fielder were supposed to be smacking the Giants around like piñatas. Instead, Cabrera is hitting .222 in the Series and Fielder, .100. It's beginning to look as though the Giants could send arthritic janitors to the mound and find ways to keep the Tigers in their dens. Once you're past Jackson, Cabrera, and Fielder, what in the Tiger lineup is there to fear?

"Obviously," Fielder said, "you never visualize this kind of thing happening."

That kind of thing included the Giants ended up becoming the first team since the 1966 Orioles to throw back-to-back World Series shutouts. It falls to Max Scherzer in Game Four to repeat the brilliance with which he beat the Yankees in the ALCS and pray that someone, anyone in the Tiger lineup does something against the Giants' now-surrealistic pitching staff.

But he and the Tigers must know they can put away any talk about the Giants getting breaks and the Tigers merely getting broken. This isn't about breaks anymore. Or, about whether the Tigers just got caught at a disadvantage without the DH in Games 1 and 2. This is about pitching, defense, and striking while the proverbial irons might be just warm enough. Even on chilly Detroit nights.

"Well, you don't really have to tell them anything," Leyland said of his charges. "They can count. They're big guys, they know what the situation is." Do they know the Giants' starters have a 0.47 over the span in which the Giants now have a six-game winning streak since Barry Zito's NLCS jewel? Do they know nobody has ever overthrown a 3-0 World Series deficit?

"Well, it's a good situation," Giants manager Bruce Bochy will tell you about everything involving his club and their postseason marvels, "but there's nothing been done yet. It's a number, just like I said about two. Now it's three. But that's not the Series."

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:09 PM | Comments (0)

October 27, 2012

This is the Thanks David Ortiz Gets?

If you wouldn't necessarily call him a downright defender, at least you couldn't accuse David Ortiz of being one among any Red Sox looking for Bobby Valentine's head on a plate during their nightmare of a 2012 season. No matter what fresh turmoil Valentine inspired or abetted, Ortiz wasn't one of his would-be prosecutors and brushed away any bid to compel him in that direction.

Even as late as just days before the blockbuster deal that made Dodgers out of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto, Big Papi told reporters the issues on the team weren't the manager so much as it was the injuries, the inconsistencies.

"Who cares if a player's against a manager?" he said at the time, in a kind of dugout press conference. "We've got to deal with the manager anyway. A manager is not something you can go and change like you change your underwear. It can happen at some point, but the possibility of it happening, especially in the middle of the season, is a small percent, so that's not our case."

That may have been more than Valentine actually deserved. His divide-and-conquer managing and public relations style, which just about anyone in baseball knew except the Red Sox when they hired him to succeed Terry Francona, divided an injury-and-confidence wracked team and metastasized the toxins in a clubhouse still poisoned by September 2011. And there was Ortiz, not exactly offering Valentine a ringing endorsement but not exactly offering him a blindfold and a cigarette, either.

And this is the thanks he gets?

Sitting for a television interview with NBC's Bob Costas, which aired the night before the 2012 World Series was to begin, Valentine called the injury-plagued Ortiz a quitter in every conceivable phrase without using the word explicitly.

"David Ortiz came back after spending about six weeks on the disabled list and we thought it was only going to be a week," the former manager told Costas. "He got two hits the first two times up, drove in a couple runs; we were off to the races. Then he realized that [the 25 August trade] meant that we're not going to run this race and we're not even going to finish the race properly and he decided not to play anymore. I think at that time it was all downhill from there."

Three weeks ago, when Valentine got the guillotining everyone in baseball knew he'd get, never mind his periodic brave (desperate?) talk that he expected to return for the second year of his contract, I wrote Red Sox Nation could sleep at last not having to wonder for whom Valentine would find a space under a bus while shooting himself in the foot yet again over some actual or alleged accusation. That'll teach me.

The word of Valentine's remarks to Costas oozed forth a few hours before the interview was broadcast. Big Papi, arguably the most popular player still in a Red Sox uniform, forced by continuing Achilles tendon trouble to shut his season down a few weeks before the schedule ended, accused by his now-former manager of quitting on the team after the Big Deal.

Even Peter Abraham, a Boston Globe reporter who bent over backward to offer Valentine the benefit of the doubt often enough during the Red Sox's nightmarish season, found that a little too much. "Ortiz re-injured his foot in that Aug. 24 game," he writes. "He also had an injection designed to speed his healing in September. By then, with the Red Sox hopelessly out of contention, he did not pursue the idea of playing again."

That is not what you would call a downright debunking, but neither is it what you would call a downright defense of Valentine's slightly coarse emission. But it is what those who recalled Valentine's years managing the Mets would call entirely, and precisely, of a piece.

In the same column three weeks ago, I noted Valentine once took comparable shots at two pitchers under his Mets jurisdiction: Pete Harnisch, suffering clinical depression after quitting smokeless tobacco; and, Hideo Nomo, whose struggling season compelled him to decline a crucial start down the stretch — because he didn't believe his performance had earned him the honor. ("Honor" was Nomo's word, apparently.) Valentine dismissed both as quitters then, too.

Valentine also feuded publicly with Todd Hundley, arguably the most popular Met at the time, during 1996. According to Valentine, Hundley kept a few too many late hours, wink wink, nudge nudge. It turned out Hundley's later hours amounted to keeping close watch on his cancer-stricken mother while helping his pregnant wife with their incumbent young children.

"He comes into a whole new situation," Hundley would tell Murray Chass, then still with the New York Times, after the catcher was traded to the Dodgers, "and goes right after I guess the most popular guy. It's not my fault I'm the most popular guy."

You might care to note that, to begin 1996, a group of Mets went to spring training and held a meeting among themselves — discussing whether and how to try getting Valentine fired.

Anyone remembering those incidents would experience the proverbial shock of recognition now. Just as one did when Valentine was foolish enough to question Kevin Youkilis's heart in hand with his health during April, the moment even Valentine's allies agree he lost the Red Sox clubhouse. Just as one might be, now, after Valentine has called Ortiz a quitter on national television.

The real shock may be that Valentine didn't do it within a day or so of Ortiz being shut down after taking the aforementioned shot. Or could Valentine have been made aware that John Farrell's hiring as the Red Sox's manager, following the wrangle with the Blue Jays, has received Ortiz'svery enthusiastic support?

There's a funny thing about quitters. They don't normally find themselves, as pending free agents, on the very night their former managers think they've been exposed as quitters, on the threshold of signing new, possibly seven-figure, possibly two-year contracts.

"I wouldn't be trying to re-sign him if I had any concern about David's commitment to baseball or to the Red Sox," general manager Ben Cherington told ESPN Tuesday night, when the network reached him for comment about the Costas broadcast. "During a trying year, David was a leader for us on and off the field. Unfortunately, an Achilles injury cut his season short. It was a tough break in a season full of tough breaks for us."

Were we only imagining that Carl Crawford pushed himself to play through his own throwing arm miseries — first his wrist, then his elbow, on which he has since undergone Tommy John surgery — because, as he let slip around the time of The Trade, he didn't want to be thought a quitter?

(Here's something to ponder: WEEI radio's Alex Speier, comparing Farrell to Valentine, includes this among his notes: "Farrell was one of the biggest advocates of the role of the training staff in maintaining player health over the course of a full season. Valentine admitted tension sometimes existed between his perspective and that of team trainers on player availability." Perhaps including Ortiz and his Achilles tendon trouble, when he was assessed as being 75 percent at best when he tried to return from the first DL term?)

Ortiz wasn't quite Valentine's sole target during the Costas interview, in fairness. He called himself "incredulous" that his players objected, among other things, to his yelling at infielder Mike Aviles during a spring training drill in which Aviles, apparently, committed a mistake. To Valetine their objection amounted to the tail wagging the dog. (Aviles, by the way, went to the Blue Jays in exchange for Farrell.) "A leader needs to lead," Valentine continued. "He leads by forming the pack, patting down the pack and having other people follow. You can't have the guy at the back of the line coming up and deciding which direction you're going to go in."

This may come as a big shock to Valentine, but if you don't count basic military training there have been leaders who managed to form solid packs without screaming at them over simple mistakes or dismissing the wounded in action as quitters. And leaders do not claim, a few months after the fact, that a wisecrack to a young infielder, Will Middlebrooks, after a rough inning on defense, never occurred in the first place, never mind that Valentine himself was the one who revealed it to WEEI after it happened in the first place.

"The more Bobby Valentine speaks," Todd Hundley once said, after his days in Valentine's crosshairs ended, "the more people will realize why he has the reputation he has in the game."

Ortiz was not one of the Red Sox involved in the infamous text message incident, sent from Adrian Gonzalez's cell phone, asking for a meeting with the team brass after Valentine left Jon Lester in to take an eleven-run beating. Valentine might never have been certain whom among his players or staffers would be the next to ponder or commit mutiny, but he could be certain Ortiz wouldn't be one of them.

Never once upon the news that Farrell would be the new Red Sox manager did Ortiz say anything suggesting Valentine was any kind of deliberate troublemaker, no matter how effusively he received Farrell's advent.

And this is the thanks he gets?

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:30 PM | Comments (0)

October 26, 2012

World Series Game 2: All Giants, Big or Small

Now this is a novel position for the San Francisco Giants to assume. They're not used to being up two games to none in a postseason set this year. This could be the start of something … weird?

The way they got into this position was probably weird enough even by the standards of a Giants team that's spent at least half this postseason benefitting from the trans-dimensional. Can you remember any team winning a World Series game with nothing but a double play and a sacrifice fly to score the only two runs they proved necessary?

Now it's not the Giants, but the Detroit Tigers in the hole 2-0. Don't ask if the Giants are complaining.

"It definitely feels better than having our backs against the wall," Game 2 starter and winner Madison Bumgarner drawled, a few moments after Detroit second baseman Omar Infante could do nothing with closer Sergio Romo's dancing slider other than to pop it up to Brandon Belt about thirty feet left of first base.

After two consecutive bludgeonings — one to get the Giants here at the St. Louis Cardinals' expense, ending the National League Championship Series, and one to start them off right against these Tigers in Game 1 — the Giants maybe had one more thing to prove in this World Series.

And they proved it. When necessary, they can beat you with nothing more than virtuoso pitching, virtuoso defense, and small ball that was so small they got their Game 2 win with a grand total of two base hits involved in building their 2-0 score and neither of the hits responsible for getting the runs home.

Bumgarner had looked like a nervous rookie in his earlier postseason turns, at least until he managed to correct a mechanical problem about which he declined coyly to elaborate in his first post-game interview. On Thursday night the spindly left-hander looked like Sandy Koufax, and his Giants mates looked like the one-time Dodgers stereotype, in which those 1960s teams had so small a batting reputation that you joked a leadoff hit batsman equaled a major rally.

He matched Tiger starter Doug Fister and out-pitched Fister in just the right places. He struck out 8, walked only 2, surrendered a measly 2 hits, threw first-pitch strikes to almost half the hitters he faced. Fister, for his part, pitched a gutsy outing of his own, particularly after coming out better than alive after Gregor Blanco, the Giants' left fielder, lined on right upside and off the right side of Fister's skull on the crown of the tall right-hander's cap.

Fister shook it off practically at once, sort of using a full-count walk, bases-loading walk to Brandon Crawford as a re-tuning before getting Bumgarner, who can handle a bat and hit a pair of bombs during the regular season, to pop out to shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Surely some of the cheering from Giants fans had to do with offering Fister praise for surviving what could have been Brandon McCarthy redux and pitching back early and strongly enough.

The way Bumgarner and Fister pitched, before Hunter Pence's seventh-inning leadoff single ended Fister's own impressive evening, you began to wonder if the eventual victor would prove to have gotten lucky in winning it. And that's just about what the Giants were, starting right after Fister's reliever, rookie left-hander Drew Smyly, lost Belt to a hard-earned walk with nobody out.

The questions before the house were sure to include why Detroit manager Jim Leyland, an old and wise hand under ordinary circumstances, didn't end Fister's night before Pence came up to hit, sending out Octavio Dotel to face Pence before inviting Smyly to have his way with the following three left-handed Giant hitters.

Blanco on 3-1 dropped a bunt on the third base line that looked like a grapefruit rolling dead after falling to the floor from a supermarket display. Smyly came over. So did Detroit third baseman Miguel Cabrera and plate umpire Dan Iassogna. Catcher Gerald Laird followed up the line. The ball slowed to a dead halt on the baseline dirt and on the fair side of the line.

A Giant fan would probably tell you that was extraterrestrial repayment for the two plays that probably saved the game for them in the first place, one of which occurred a half-inning before they nudged the first run home.

Bumgarner opened the top of the seventh by dueling Cabrera into a walk, going from 2-2 to a foul off, ball three, another pair of fouls, and ball four. Bringing up Prince Fielder, whom even a left-hander doesn't necessarily want to see at the plate with even one man on. But Fielder rapped a strike one service right back up to Bumgarner himself, and Bumgarner wheeled as though he'd planned this in advance, bagging Cabrera at second, with shortstop Brandon Crawford turning like a carousel to throw Fielder out. Then, the left-hander got Delmon Young to bounce out high but sure to Crawford for the side.

That was five innings after Bumgarner opened by hitting Fielder with a 1-1 pitch and watching in soft horror as Young followed by shooting a strike one pitch right up to and past third base and down the left field line. Fielder ground around second, barreled toward third, and Detroit third base coach Gene Lamont saw nothing wrong with sending the big lug home just as Blanco throwing in missed his cutoff man. Nothing wrong except Marco Scutaro, backing up Crawford as Blanco's throw sailed past.

Scutaro grabbed it, wheeled, threw home with a bullet, and Fielder was beaten by a literal foot — Buster Posey behind the plate got a tag on Fielder's back just before his left foot touched the plate.

A team that can dodge bullets like that with dodging like the Giants' isn't exactly going to waste an opportunity to get a run wherever they can find it if they're not doing all that much hitting on the night thus far. When you're turning your mistakes into profits, you must feel charmed.

Romo calls it a team-wide will to survive. "We've been in nail-biters all season long," he said. "We're a gritty, grindy team. Every game that we're in, we feel that we're in a fight. Today was no different."

So the Giants had gritted and ground their way to ducks on the pond, nobody out, and Crawford at the plate in the seventh, after equaling the Tigers to that point for trying and failing to pry anything out of the starting pitcher. Now, Crawford took ball one, then dialed the most profitable possible Area Code 4-6-3 double play, Pence jogging home from third and pouring into the Giants dugout, looking for all the world as though he'd dodged a straitjacket on the way across the plate.

Smyly started off promisingly enough in the bottom of the eighth when he shook off a leadoff walk to Angel Pagan by dropping a delicious strike three slider in on Scutaro, who seemed to be caught by surprise for looking at a pitch he probably could have drilled.

When Pagan stole second on ball one to Pablo Sandoval, Game 1's strategic bombing hero, Leyland ordered Smyly to turn it into an intentional walk, then brought in Octavio Dotel for the right-right showdown with Posey while double-switching Quentin Berry to left field and into the number nine lineup slot, and moving Dan Kelly (who'd been subbing for a sub, Andy Dirks) to right, the better to fortify his late defensive shore-up further.

Except that Posey earned himself a somewhat surprising four-pitch, very unintentional walk. And Psycho Pence fouled off three consecutive 0-2 services before lofting a fly deep enough to right to send home Pagan.

Exit Dotel, enter Phil Coke, himself coming in to assume a position thus far unfamiliar to him in this postseason, his team in the hole. He dispatched Belt on an inning-ending swinging strikeout, but he could only join his teammates helplessly in the dugout as Romo shrugged Berry into a leadoff fly out to Blanco, pounded Austin Jackson into a four-pitch swinging strikeout, and then took care of Infante after falling behind 2-0.

And exit, apparently Bumgarner's sad seasonal reversal. Until a start against the Dodgers in August, when he threw 123 pitches, he'd had a 2.93 earned run average and hitters were probably lucky to hit .218 against him. After that outing against the Dodgers, and including his harsh NLCS outing against the Cardinals, Bumgarner showed a 6.85 ERA for the spell.

Then came Thursday night. Back came the Bumgarner of the pre-August 2.93. Just what the Tigers didn't need, any more than they needed Bumgarner ending the fourth by picking Infante off first dead.

He doesn't have to go into details about the mechanical correction he and pitching coach Dave Righetti made before Game 2. All he has to do is keep it corrected. "I hadn't done a good job of making pitches this postseason, until today," he said.

If this series goes to a sixth game, the Giants will be needing the corrected Bumgarner once again. We already know the Giants can play small ball with as many of the best of them as they played bombs away Wednesday night.

"The will to survive, the will to be the last one standing," Romo said. "It's still there."

They won't make the mistake of pronouncing the Tigers dead, though. They know, too, that the Tigers have their own will to survive. That's how they stole the American League Central from the White Sox at just short of the eleventh hour and the division series from the upstart Athletics. That's how they probably hope to start stealing the rest of the World Series when they go back to Detroit Saturday.

Touchingly, Game Two's tone was set by a triple-amputee veteran of two Afghanistan tour. Escorted by Romo, Game One's winner Barry Zito (who has a charity to benefit wounded veterans, Strikeouts for Troops), and Hall of Famer Willie Mays, Marine Cpl. Nicholas Kimmel, who lost both legs and his left arms in the second tour, stood in front of the mound as Romo trotted down to behind the plate to receive.

Kimmel threw his own kind of floater to the plate for what would have been called a perfect high strike if it had been a regulation pitch. A man who personifies a fighting man's will to survive, opening a baseball game won by a team that boasts of a will to survive on the field. You couldn't ask for a more poetic telegraph to a World Series pitching duel.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:06 AM | Comments (0)

October 25, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 8

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-5½)

Adrian Peterson rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings' 21-14 win over the Cardinals last week. At 5-2, Minnesota is second in the NFC North to the Bears 6-1 Bears.

"If the playoffs started today," Leslie Frazier said, "we'd be 'In.' If you're talking 'OUT,' you're obviously referring to punter Chris Kluwe, who posed in that magazine. Chris may be the manliest man in the NFL for showing his support for tolerance.

"And speaking of 'all man,' Peterson is exactly that. And he doesn't discriminate, either. With a repaired left knee, you'd expect him to lean one way. But he doesn't. He doesn't favor his right knee or his left. Adrian is superhuman, and he's a super human."

The Buccaneers have scored 66 points in their last two games, and Josh Freeman has thrown for 748 yards in those games.

"I've finally has a big-time receiver in Vincent Jackson," Freeman said. "At $55 million, he didn't come cheaply. That's why he's nicknamed 'Vincent Price.' Vincent grew tired of life in San Diego. There, he didn't know he wasn't going to the playoffs until January. Here, he knows by October."

Peterson will find the end zone, and Percy Harvin is a threat to score from anywhere, twice if on a Lake Minnetonka sex cruise.

Minnesota wins, 22-20.

Miami @ NY Jets (-3)

Former Miami head coach Tony Sparano will face his former team when the 3-3 Dolphins visit the 3-4 Jets. Sparano was fired as head coach of Miami last year and soon thereafter became the Jets' offensive coordinator.

"Sparano should feel right at home," Rex Ryan said. "As was the case last year, he's finding ways to beat the Dolphins.

"I was encouraged by our effort in New England. We went toe-to-toe with the Patriots, which sounds really sexy in my book. I'll tell you what's not sexy — shooting yourself in the foot. I love a good turn-on; what I hate is a turn-over."

Miami is alone in second in the AFC East with a 3-3 record, hot on the tails of the 4-3 Patriots.

"This game is sure to be hard-hitting," Joe Philbin said, "and even more 'Hard Knock-ing.'

"History has shown that there's often some funny business on the sidelines during Dolphins-Jets game. Personally, I long for the good old days, when the only 'tripping' on the sidelines was a sauced Joe Namath jonesing for a kiss from Suzy Kolber."

Miami wins, 20-17.

San Diego @ Cleveland (+2½)

San Diego blew a 24-0 halftime lead in a devastating 35-24 loss to the Broncos and Peyton Manning in Week 6, leaving the Chargers at 3-3. They'll try to regroup in the Cleveland after a bye week.

"This team is no stranger to second-half collapses," Norv Turner said. "In seasons, as well as in games. In offensive circles, I've been called a 'visionary.' Does that mean I have the ability to look into the future? It must, because I saw this coming.

"To compound our issues, the NFL is investigating us for using a Stickum-like substance in our Monday night loss to Denver on October 15th. I would swear, with Lester Hayes' hand on the Bible, that I knew nothing about this. I try my best to adhere to the rules."

The Browns have the NFL's worst record at 1-6 after a 17-13 loss in Indianapolis last week.

"I imagine the Chargers expect to bounce back strong," Pat Shurmur said. "Whatever's wrong, expect them to have it 'fixed' at the Dawg Pound."

The game starts in controversial fashion when a Cleveland fan is ejected after tossing a bone on the field that is covered in an unknown sticky substance. As the fan is led away, an enraged George Brett storms the field and confronts the referee, who ejects Brett and his wad of chewing tobacco.

Chargers race to an early 10-point lead, and it sticks.

San Diego wins, 27-17.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2½)

Chris Johnson exploded for 195 yards and two touchdowns as the Titans won for the second week in a row, outlasting the Bills 35-34 in Buffalo last week. Johnson will try to carry the load again as the Titans host the Colts and Andrew Luck.

"I love running against the Bills," Johnson said. "The Buffalo defense is a lot like their defensive coordinator position — there going to be an 'opening' soon.

"We, along with the Colts, realize we're probably playing for second in the South. Personally, I'm not conceding anything, except fourth place to the Jaguars."

The Colts are second in the AFC South with a 3-3 record, 2½ games behind the 6-1 Texans. Andrew Luck ran for two score last week in the Colts 17-13 win over the Browns.

"That's something Peyton Manning's never done," Luck said. "That's most likely because he didn't need or want to. The only thing Peyton 'ran' in Indy was the offense.

The winner of Sunday's contest at LP Field takes over sole possession of second place in the South. So, the winner is rewarded with "little consolation."

Indianapolis wins, 23-20.

New England @ St. Louis (+6)

It's a rematch of Super Bowl 36, when upstart Tom Brady led the Patriots to a stunning 20-17 win over the heavily-favored Rams. This time, the game is in London, not the Superdome, and the Patriots are favored, while the Rams are gunning for the upset.

"I remember those days well," Brady said. "That's when Kurt Warner was the man, and his wife Brenda looked like a man. Oh, how times have changed. Now, I'm the man, and my wife, Giselle Bundchen, wears the pants.

"I think the win over the Jets sent a message to the rest of the AFC East. The Patriots are in first place, so the writing is on the wall. And it's written in pencil."

The Rams dropped a 30-20 loss to the Packers in St. Louis, the Rams' first home loss of the year. St. Louis will try to rebound against the Patriots, who are 0-2 against the NFC West.

"At least for a day," Sam Bradford said, "we can call our offense 'The Greatest Show on Foreign Turf.'"

Patriots win, 27-24.

Jacksonville @ Green Bay (-13)

The Packers improved to 4-3 after a 30-20 win in St. Louis last week, led by 342 yards passing and three touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers. In his last two games, Rodgers has thrown for 762 yards and nine TD's.

"Our passing game is clicking on all cylinders," Mike McCarthy said. "Rodgers is completing almost 70% of his passes; Blaine Gabbert's percentage is only 55.7. Much like Rodgers, he's got a lot of 'zip' on his throws.

"And speaking of a lot of 'zip,' our running game may be our biggest weakness. Basically, our running game has one use: keeping the defense honest. Sometimes, honesty is enough to stop our running game. We've played a lot of 'honest' defenses this year."

The Jaguars lost Maurice Jones-Drew and Blaine Gabbert early in last week's 26-23 overtime loss in Oakland. Jones-Drew's foot injury will keep him out of Sunday's game at Lambeau Field, while Gabbert will start.

"Blaine injured his non-throwing shoulder," Mike Mularkey said. "As his rating of 32nd among passers in the NFL would suggest, that must be his right shoulder.

"If Blaine can't play, Chad Henne will fill in. If that's the case, Gabbert will set a Guinness World Record for having the tiniest pair of shoes to fill."

Rodgers throws for three scores, and the Packers defense, without the injured Charles Woodson (in a Heisman repose), stymies the Jacksonville offense.

Green Bay wins, 31-13.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-2½ )

It's been a turbulent two weeks in Philadelphia. In week 6, the Eagles blew a fourth quarter lead before falling 26-23 to the Lions in overtime at home. The following day, Andy Reid fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo.

"I just invented a new party game," Reid said. "It's called 'Pin The Blame On The Goat.' When I told Juan the news, just as I had suspected, he didn't get defensive.

"But this is the perfect opportunity to turn our season around. We've had a bye week to get healthy, and I know Michael Vick wants to play well against his old team.

The Falcons are the NFL's last remaining unbeaten, and are fully rested after a Week 7 bye.

"Vick has had his troubles," Matt Ryan said, "in life and in football. What does he have more of, fumbles or foibles.

"I admire Vick's commitment in becoming a dog owner again. I admire the dog's even more."

Philadelphia wins, 26-23.

Washington @ Pittsburgh (-4)

Robert Griffin III and the 3-4 Redskins travel to Heinz Field to face the 3-3 Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, who is fifth in the league in passer rating.

"RG3 and Big Ben are quite similar in some respects," Mike Shanahan said. "First and foremost, both have an uncanny ability to extricate themselves from seemingly inescapable predicaments. Griffin just does it without legal representation.

"We'll need our offense to keep Roethlisberger off the field. In conjunction with the Steelers' defense, I think we should be able to do that."

After their 24-17 win in Cincinnati last Sunday, the Steelers are 3-3 and trail the Ravens by only one game in the loss column. Mike Tomlin knows he'll have his hands full with RG3.

"RG3 has taken the nation's capitol by storm," Mike Tomlin said. "There hasn't been anything this slick and black in D.C. since Marion Barry. Like Barry, Griffin's been caught on film doing unbelievable things, as well."

Griffin and the 'Skins nearly spring the upset, but Roethlisberger leads a late game-winning drive. Larry Foote recovers a fumble to clinch the win.

Pittsburgh wins, 28-24.

Seattle @ Detroit (-2½)

The Seahawks have had ten days to digest last Thursday's 13-6 loss in San Francisco, a painful defeat that knocked the Seahawks out of tie for first in the division. They'll try to win the battle in the trenches against a Detroit offense that struggled in Monday night's 13-7 loss to the Bears.

"Marshawn Lynch is the cornerstone of our offense," Pete Carroll said. "Our offense will be in 'Beast Mode; against our defense, the Lions' offense will be in 'Least Mode.'

"I hear that Jim Harbaugh is whining about our defensive backs' treatment of his receivers in their Thursday night win. I of all people know that you can't expect everyone to follow rules to the letter."

The Lions are 2-4 and fading in the NFC North race, dead last and 0-2 in the division.

"Is there a panic button in Detroit?" Jim Schwartz said. "Indeed there is. It's on my back.

"Is my job in trouble? It very well could be. As you know, I don't like unexpected pats on the back. And, I don't like unexpected taps on the shoulder."

Seattle wins, 23-17.

Carolina @ Chicago (-7½)

The 5-1 Bears, leaders in the NFC North, host the 1-5 Panthers, last in the NFC South. Chicago's defense, the NFL's top-ranked unit, faces the struggling Panthers, who average only 17 points per game.

"Cam Newton has a great arm," Lance Briggs said. "He throws blame better than anyone. Obviously, Newton doesn't own a mirror. He definitely has a place for one — on his 'vanity.'

"Newton has made little or no progress since his impressive rookie year. He thinks he's Superman; I think 'Man of Still' is more like it."

The Panthers lost a close 19-14 decision to the visiting Cowboys last week in Charlotte, as Carolina failed again to make plays at crucial times. On Monday, the team fired general manager Marty Hurney.

"Just call us the 'carolina panthers,'" Ron Rivera said, "because we can't capitalize on anything.

"We're hoping Hurney's firing is the change that will turn this team around. In essence, we hope to make Marty a martyr."

Newton is taunted unmercifully by the Soldier Field faithful. Of course, he doesn't understand why, and says to teammate Steve Smith, "Boo who?"

"Exactly, you baby," Smith replies. "Now hitch up your diaper and play like a man."

The Carolina defense will be limited without linebacker Jon Beason, who's on the IR, which apparently stands for "increasing regularity." Newton, for his part, throws an early TD pass, but goes missing after that, leading to more Vince Young comparisons.

Chicago wins, 30-10.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-1)

The Raiders and Chiefs face off in a battle of the bottom half of the AFC West. The Chiefs are 1-5, while the Raiders are 2-4.

"We are bad," Dennis Allen said. "The Chiefs are worse. So, when the Raiders travel to Arrowhead, it's a textbook example of things going 'from bad to worse.'

Despite their 1-5 record, the Chiefs are only two games out of the AFC West lead. Romeo Crenel named Brady Quinn the starter over Matt Cassel.

"It was a tough decision," Crenel said. "I put two names in a hat; the tough decision was pulling one out. Quinn is getting the nod. That can only mean a lot of head-shaking is forthcoming."

The Kansas City defense steps up, forcing two early turnovers that the Chiefs' offense cashes in for 10 points.

Kansas City wins, 24-16.

NY Giants @ Dallas (+2)

The Cowboys rebounded from last week's 31-29 loss in Baltimore with a tough 19-14 win over the Panthers in Charlotte. Dan Bailey kicked four field goals to pace the Cowboys, who are 3-3, tied for second in the NFC East behind the 5-2 Giants.

"I love it when our kicking game carries us," Jason Garrett said. "As opposed to 'kicking ourselves,' we'd rather be 'ourselves kicking.' When we're kicking, there's only one thing that can go wrong.

"These are the kind of games in which a team finds out what it's made of. On paper, we're a Super Bowl-quality team. On the field, we're paper tigers."

The Giants will be out to avenge their Week 1 24-17 loss to the Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. The G-Men responded by winning five of their next six games. With a win, New York would have a commanding 2 ½ game lead on the 'Boys in the East.

"Revenge is on our minds," Eli Manning said. "The Cowboys rained on our parade, on a night when we received our Super Bowl rings. It was a veritable golden shower.

"It will be different at Cowboys Stadium. The Cowboys always find ways to lose. We always find ways to win. This time, it all happens in the same place."

New York wins, 26-23.

New Orleans @ Denver (-4½)

Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, two future Hall Of Famers, will take center stage when the Broncos host the Saints. It's a dream game for NBC's Sunday Night Football, as well as for that unique population of consumers who drink NyQuil while driving Buicks.

"Roger Goodell can shove it," Drew Brees said. "There will be a Peyton at the game. As you would expect, this is the hottest ticket in the NFL this week. Ironically, tickets are going for $10,000 a head."

Manning led the Broncos to 35 second-half points that erased a 24-0 halftime deficit at San Diego in Week 6. Manning is second in the league with a 105.0 quarterback rating.

"The Saints are giving up a whopping 465 yards per game," Manning said. "That's the worst in the league. I'll have to side with Goodell on this issue — it seems the Saints defense is still offering up a 'bounty.'"

Manning and Brees duel to a near standstill, throwing for a combined 768 yards. Champ Bailey's interception seals the win for Denver.

Broncos win, 31-27.

San Francisco @ Arizona (+4)

The 49ers lead the NFC West after a punishing 13-6 over the Seahawks in week 7. Coupled with Arizona's 21-14 loss to the Vikings last week, San Francisco is alone atop the NFC West with a 5-2 record.

"They're calling me 'the bookie' in the betting world," Jim Harbaugh said, "because it's nothing for me to give up two points."

With a win, the Cardinals could force a tie in the West. John Skelton will start his second consecutive game in place of the injured Kevin Kolb.

"We're not asking Skelton to do much," Ken Whisenhunt said. "We just want him to hold his own and play within himself. As far as being charged with indecent exposure, that's a chance I'm willing to take."

The Cards will be pumped up; unfortunately for Arizona, Skelton is not their 'ace in the hole,' but he is the 'ace that puts them in the hole.'"

San Francisco wins 20-11.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:59 PM | Comments (0)

World Series Game 1: The Panda Pounces

Pablo Sandoval couldn't have picked a more dramatic few hours to enjoy the first three-bomb game of his major league life. Shaking hands with Albert Pujols, Reggie Jackson, and Babe Ruth does World Series wonders for streaky-hitting, roly-poly third basemen who resemble Yogi Bear being stuffed into the picnic basket.

And the Detroit Tigers couldn't have picked a more heartbreaking day to remind themselves what the San Francisco Giants, their AT&T Park audience, and who knew how many million on television were reminded: Even Justin Verlander can be, and is, only human, now and then, and once in awhile even a Barry Zito who might have been left for dead once upon a time can out-pitch him on a pleasant October night.

Verlander was human enough Wednesday to think Sandoval couldn't possible handle a high riding two-strike fastball with two out and nobody on in the bottom of the first. And Sandoval was inhuman enough to hit it into the front of the center field seats. Verlander was human enough to think he could shake that off in the bottom of the third, bag Sandoval for the side after two outs, a freak double, an RBI single, and a mere man on first. And Sandoval was inhuman enough to hit a ball-two rider into the left field seats.

Then, in the bottom of the fifth, Verlander's relief, Al Albuquerque, was made to wish he'd made that left toin. He fed Sandoval a one-out, 1-1, thigh-high slider, which slid about as much as sandpaper on velcro. And Sandoval drove that one over the dead center field fence, right in front of the elevated television cameras.

Salud, Albert Pujols. Hey, there, Reg-gie! Top of the evening to ye, Bambino.

Who expected even these Giants, this aggregation of relentless pests, to get an early-and-often five-run jump against the Tiger whom most minds living and otherwise swear to be a pitcher who's painful enough to face on a regular season but the equivalent of orthodontic surgery without an anesthetic in a postseason? And, then, to watch with jaws hitting the dugout floor as their free-swinging, roly-poly third baseman sent three over the fences, while their too-much-bruised starting pitcher continued what he started in the National League Championship Series by out-pitching Verlander when the rare opportunity arose?

Probably, nobody but the Giants, their shepherds, and the throng that packed AT&T Park late Wednesday afternoon. They've nicknamed themselves cockroaches this time around, having been mere Morons winning a World Series two years ago, and if the Tigers thought they'd open up a can of Black Flag on them they didn't account for the Giants' wearing the appropriate gas masks.

On the other hand, who didn't expect Marco Scutaro to be in the middle of fattening the Giants' extremely early, and perhaps surprising, 2-0 lead? After Angel Pagan fought through seven pitches and smacked a freak double off the third base pad right before Miguel Cabrera might have wrapped a glove around the bounder, Scutaro fouled off two full-count Verlander services before shooting a single up the pipe to send home Pagan readily enough. Up stepped Sandoval, off the zone went balls one and two, and out it went.

And, an inning later, wasn't it bad enough in the Tigers' minds that Barry Zito had kept them at long arm's length through four shutout innings, after shaking off a little would-be game-opening rough stuff, before he shot a two-out RBI single in the bottom of the fourth?

Zito needed defensive help to wiggle out of the first inning after Omar Infante singled and Cabrera fought his way to a walk, setting up two runners for Prince Fielder. Fielder swung on the first pitch and popped it up behind the right field side of second base, and Hunter Pence hustling in from deeper right waded into a small crowd to haul it down. And Sandoval had to stare down a bizarre hop off Delmon Young's bat before scooping it, somehow, and throwing to second to force Cabrera for the side.

The left-hander certainly wasn't complaining in the fourth inning, either, when Young chopped one off the plate for which catcher Buster Posey lunged in a hurry, tagging Young before winging it to second to double up Fielder and stopping the Tigers from thinking about any more rough stuff in the inning.

Sandoval squared off against Verlander with two out in the first and hit the high rider into the front of the center field seats. Zito dispatched the Tigers in the second with a swinging strikeout (Jhonny Peralta) and grounders to either side of second base, then shook off another mild threat in the third, stranding Austin Jackson (one-out base hit up the pipe) by striking out Infante on a check swing and watching Gregor Blanco show up somehow to snatch a hard liner from Cabrera for that side.

By that third inning it was as though the Giants had performed their Ph.D. dissertations in "Neutralising Traveling Gas" in a crash course. They anticipated Verlander's velocity, found it just about as advertised, and simply applied the correct ratio of geographic location to contact. By the time Verlander was lifted for pinch hitter Danny Worth, who ended a swift top of the fifth with an eight-pitch strikeout leaving Zito none too drained, the game was exactly half over and neither Verlander nor the Tigers could figure out quite what had happened to them.

"Attack his fastball," Sandoval said when it was all over.

He'd faced Verlander in the All-Star Game and gone down on a breaking ball. Lesson learned, and remembered. The pupil swung himself into elite World Series company and the teacher came out for a pinch hitter midway through the fifth inning in a 5-0 hole.

Until the Tigers began to roar a little bit in the top of the sixth Zito cruised reasonably and effectively, just days after he turned the key in the ignition on the Giants' League Championship Series self-resurrection. Then Jackson doubled to left and helped himself to third on a fly out to center before Cabrera poked him home with a single up the pipe. And then, Zito needed Blanco to preserve his bounty again, this time the lithe San Francisco left fielder running in, diving for, and catching Fielder's opposite field sinking liner, about two seconds before Blanco hit the deck holding on.

It saved at least a run and took a little steam out of Zito at once, considering Young following with another single up the pipe. That provoked manager Bruce Bochy to take no chances, lift his stout left-hander to a loud, standing ovation, when Zito clearly if not angrily preferring to finish what he started in this inning, at least.

"This is just the icing on the cake, the boys coming out swinging and the defense coming huge," Zito said.

Bochy brought in Tim Lincecum, who's been bullpen money this postseason after a shaky regular season dropped him out of its rotation. The hair-flapping right-hander teased Peralta with ball one before zipping a three-more-pitch, swinging strikeout on the Detroit shortstop for the side.

The Tigers must have wanted to believe this Game One was nothing but a teaser. They hadn't seen Zito, the first man to make his first World Series start 10 years after bagging his only Cy Young Award, this effective in an extremely long time, in twice a dog's age. Zito wasn't anything close to overpowering and the Tigers couldn't overpower him if they'd brought bazookas instead of bats to the plate. Until they pried the single run out of him in the sixth the Tigers managed to get only four men on base and only one in scoring position and all four were left behind.

The Giants must have wanted to clean, stuff, and mount everyone observing the Tigers' too-easy dispatch of the Yankees in the American League Championship series, and the week's worth of rest, during which the Tigers arranged intra-organization games to stay sharp, and concluding the single day's rest between winning the National League Championship Series and opening the World Series could only mean disaster against Verlander and his threshing machine.

And there was Sandoval, a man whose conditioning once so alarmed his team that they launched a so-called Operation Panda aimed at getting him to peel a seatful of pounds off. A man who barely figured in the Giants' 2010 World Series conquest and spent nearly six weeks in sick bay with a broken hamate bone. A man who hit the first ducks-on-the-pond triple in all-sar history this season, then missed almost a month after injuring a hamstring stretching for a throw while filling in at first base in the final third of July.

There was Kung Fu Panda, all patched up and still resembling five pounds of baloney in a three pound sack, becoming the fourth man to hit three bombs in a single World Series game but the first to do it in his first three at-bats.

"He was a sight to see tonight," Zito said, making possibly the understatement of the week.

It almost seemed a let-down when Sandoval batted again in the seventh, with one out and (who else?) Scutaro on with another RBI single, and got himself a mere line single up the high pipe, off embattled Jose Valverde, making his first gig since getting strafed in the first American League Championship Series game, before Posey went inside-out on 1-1 and cued one into right center to send home Scutaro with the eighth Giants run. It left Valverde with a 30.38 postseason ERA. Not quite the way to convince your boss he acted prematurely when parceling your job out to other co-workers.

Don't ask the Tigers about let-downs. The Giants made their horse resemble a pony for the night, none of the Tigers' bullpen had many answers for the Giants' incessant pecking and pounding, and none of their hitters had any answers when Lincecum followed his threat-ending swishout of Peralta by striking out four of the next six hitters he faced.

Leaving Bochy to leave the ninth for his left-right-left bulls. George Kontos shook off Peralta's one-out, excuse-me two-run homer in and out of Pagan's glove over the wall, picked off pinch-hitter Andy Dirks' bounce-backer, but couldn't stop Avila from fighting his way to a two-out walk. So Jeremy Affeldt walked in from the pen, took a breath, threw pinch-hitter Ramon Santiago one pitch, and Crawford looked like a man about to sink into a warm bath as he picked the grounder with aplomb and got the game-ending force.

No one doubts Verlander's ability to pick up, dust off, and start all over again. But nobody doubts now that he can be beaten now and then. All it took was Sandoval remembering an All-Star lesson and the Giants otherwise remembering what got them to this World Series in the first place. And, a left-hander left for dead not long ago who remembered how to become a human Mixmaster just in time.

Not everyone makes the human memory bank look this solvent.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 12:17 PM | Comments (0)

October 24, 2012

Redbird Luck Runs Out

Think for a second about all the teams in pro sports you love to hate the most, or even the ones most people love to hate the most. The common thread with all of them is that they likely all win the most or have won the most in the recent. The Yankees, Duke basketball, the Red Wings, and the Patriots all fall into that camp among their respective sports.

But there are also teams that, as a fan, cause a temporary period of loathing. It may be that they beat your favorite team in a big game or series, have a rivalry a few years old or because they just get lucky all the time. It may even be a combination of all three. Until the last few weeks, I thought that this category of despising clubs could never reach the level of arch-rivals or the traditional mainstays.

I'm of course talking about the St. Louis Cardinals, whose two-year run of punching above their playoff weight ended on Tuesday night in anticlimactic, but pleasing fashion with a 9-0 loss to the Giants.

Now, if you've read my work and baseball columns on this site, you know that I'm a Texas Rangers fan. Therefore, if the entire MLB season was to be called off after the seven days dating from Sept. 29 to Oct. 5, I would have been fine with it. I never wanted to have to say this as a fan of any team, but I feel like I now know how it feels to be a Mets fan. In other words, take this paragraph of qualification as, "No, I'm still not over last year's World Series." You probably would be too if your favorite team came one misread fly ball by a reliable outfielder away from winning the World Series.

So, it's easy to see the genesis of my true dislike for the Cardinals. It didn't help that a mere six years ago, St. Louis won the World Series with what was that year's 13th best team in the regular season.

As an aside, recent sports history has made it harder and harder to hold to the claim that the best team in the sport wins in best-of-seven playoff series. Maybe it's still true in basketball, where the talent level is fairly widely dispersed and a playoff series represents a bigger percentage of games versus the regular season, but it's definitely not been true for baseball and hockey recently.

As the 2012 season progressed, and the Pirates tortured their fans with another losing season and the Dodgers' key acquisitions were railroaded by the Giants, it was pretty clear that the Cardinals and the Braves would meet in the Wild Card game. Once they were there, the Cardinals benefitted from one of the most egregious calls in baseball history, an infield fly ruling nowhere near the infield. When it was so bad that Atlanta's reputably docile fans started pelting the field with trash, you know something is up.

Then, in the NLDS, St. Louis happened to face the year-ahead-of-schedule Nationals, who made what I will always consider to be a huge personnel flub in shutting down ace Stephen Strasburg in September. Even though it's been covered here, and on every sports outlet imaginable, it was in hindsight an even bigger mistake because Strasburg is a player who has the mental toughness to stand up to a clutch-hitting team in a deciding game. After beating two of the National League's favorites for the World Series, and going up 3 games to 1 against San Francisco, it looked like baseball would have to settle for seeing the Cardinals on the biggest stage again.

Something funny happened in Game 5 and on through the rain-drenched conclusion of Game 7. The slightly above-average Cardinals, who had become the fortunate and superlative Cardinals just in time for another playoff season suddenly regressed into a team from the NL Central that resembled Houston more than Cincinnati. It's something that St. Louis fans older than their mid-20s can likely remember happening before.

This year, an 88-74 Cardinals team went up 3-1 against a favored team in the NLCS and scored a combined one run in the final three games. In 1996, an 88-74 Cardinals team went up 3-1 against a favored team in the NLCS and scored a combined one run in the final three games. Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong, and Matt Cain aren't going to be confused with Atlanta's amazing triumvirate of John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine from the corresponding three games, but the similarities are still too great to ignore.

As the LCS round started, I found myself wanting the Cardinals to win even less than the Yankees, an almost unthinkable thought for the fan of a quality AL team. The Cardinals had, in my mind, been lucky overachievers that didn't deserve to be in the World Series ahead of the other four playoff teams in the NL, based on the full season. I do have to give credit where it's due, because the Cardinals collection of hitters have come up big in most situations the last two years, and the pitching has been consistent enough to win. But I'm still glad that they're out, and a very promising Tigers/Giants Fall Classic is on tap.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 5:34 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 32

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished 8th at Kansas, better than all but Clint Bowyer among Chase contenders. Keselwoski leads Jimmie Johnson by seven, and has a 15-point edge over Denny Hamlin.

"It was a caution-filled race," Keselowski said. "With Election Day approaching, it's no surprise to see so many 'spins.' Even Danica Patrick got into the act. She's just like a woman — can't get upset without dragging a man down with her."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson salvaged a ninth-place finish after spinning and nailing the wall in the Hollywood Casino 400. Johnson remained second in the point standings, seven behind points leader Brad Keselowski.

"I've got to hand it to Chad Knaus," Johnson said. "He had to do a lot to get us in position for a respectable finish. It was some of Chad's best work, but not his best. I've seen him do more to a car that still passed inspection."

3. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished 13th at Kansas and lost ground to both in the point standings to both Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson, who finished 8th and 9th, respectively. Hamlin is 20 out of the lead in the point standings.

"My weekend didn't get off to a good start," Hamlin said. "I crashed on Thursday in a test session at Kansas Motor Speedway. After that, I wasn't sure if I was in Kansas anymore.

"With four races left, I need to make a move. The clock is ticking. Luckily, it's the grandfather clock given to the winner at Martinsville, where I'm always a threat to win. Hopefully, it won't strike midnight before I put my hands on it."

4. Clint Bowyer — Kansas native Bowyer followed his win at Charlotte with a solid 6th in the Hollywood Casino 400, posting his 19th top-10 finish of the year. He is fourth is the Sprint Cup point standings, 28 behind Brad Keselowski.

"Just call me 'Clint 'Home' Bowyer,'" Bowyer said. "I'm sorry I couldn't give my fans what they wanted. But they weren't the only natives who were restless — I'm desperate for a win. I'm even more desperate for a three-car pileup in turn one of lap one at Martinsville that wipes out Keselowski, Johnson, and Hamlin. That 'cream' of the crop would put me in the cream of the crop."

5. Kasey Kahne — Kahne scored his ninth top-five of the year with a fourth at Kansas. He is now 35 points behind Brad Keselowski in the point standings.

"I still have a mathematical chance to win the Cup," Kahne said. "Unfortunately, I'm not good at math, like some drivers. Denny Hamlin, for example, is good at 'multiplication.' Matt Kenseth is good at 'subtraction.' And Kurt Busch is good at 'division.'"

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth took his second win of the Chase, and third of the year, with the victory at Kansas. Kenseth, in the No. 17 Zest car, led a race-high 78 laps and outgunned Martin Truex, Jr. at the end.

"That's two wins in the Chase," Kenseth said, "but despite that, I'm still out of the title picture. Does the Chase points format need to be tweaked to place more importance on wins in the Chase? I think so, and I'll get on a soapbox to say so."

7. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex scored the runner-up finish in the Hollywood Casino 400, as his No. 55 NAPA car was the top Toyota in the field. He is sixth in the point standings, 43 out of first.

"With no wins at all this year," Truex said, "you could say I'm '55 out of first.' NAPA 'knows how,' except to win."

8. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished fifth at Kansas, his first top-five result since a fourth at Richmond in September. He is seventh in the point standings, 47 out of first.

"I should give Danica Patrick a lesson in offensive driving," Stewart said. "If you want to spin someone, you can't spin yourself. This may or may not be in the Bible, but Ice Cube once said, 'Check yo'self before you wreck 'yo'self.'"

9. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led two laps and finished 10th at Kansas, joining Hendrick stablemates Kasey Kahne and Jimmie Johnson in the top 10. Gordon is eighth in the point standings, 51 out of first.

"Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has been cleared to race this weekend at Martinsville," Gordon said. "I wouldn't be surprised in the people of Junior Nation commemorate the event with a new drinking game in which you drink for six hours prior to the checkered flag, then try to pass a concussion test."

10. Kevin Harvick — Harvick, in the No. 29 Budweiser Chevy, rolled to an 11th in the Hollywood Casino 400. He is 10th in the point standings, 59 behind Brad Keselowski.

"When I say 'I'm out of it,'" Harvick said, "it has multiple meanings. I'm too far behind to care, matter, or believe. The only close race I'm involved in is what I give more of — a 'damn' or a 'rat's ass.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:30 AM | Comments (0)

October 23, 2012

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The NFL needs to change the rule that negated Mike Williams' game-tying touchdown in Tampa. If a receiver goes out of bounds but re-establishes himself in the field of play, he should remain eligible.

* When I wrote last week that "officials are calling too many pass interference penalties ... I'd also like to see defensive PI capped at 15 yards," I didn't know that FOX's Mike Pereira had already written the same thing. It's nice to be on the same side with someone as authoritative as Pereira.

* During a 0:30 span in the first quarter, the Bills and Titans combined for three touchdowns, including an 83-yard rush and a kickoff return for a TD.

* Robert Griffin III has rushed for 468 yards and 6 TDs, putting him on pace for 1,070 yards and 14 TDs. That would break Michael Vick's QB rushing record and tie Cam Newton's TD record. On Sunday, Troy Aikman compared Griffin not to Vick or Newton or Randall Cunningham, but to Barry Sanders.

* Brian Orakpo's injury replacement, Rob Jackson, has more interceptions in the last five weeks (2) than Orakpo does in his three-year career (0), including one returned for a touchdown.

***

If I were an NFL head coach, I would not give my quarterback the authority to call timeout on the field. A 5-yard delay of game penalty is nothing; a timeout is valuable. With 2:23 left in the Thursday night game, and Seattle trailing 13-6, the Seahawks had 3rd-and-12 at their own 29, and the game clock was already stopped. But with the play clock about to expire, Russell Wilson called timeout.

Seattle is 1/18 on 3rd-and-long (10+) this season. You're not going to convert this against one of the NFL's best defenses, with or without the 5 yards. But you have all three timeouts; you can punt and get the ball back. Sure enough, the 3rd-and-12 pass was incomplete — 1/19 now — and Seattle punted anyway, but minus a critical timeout. Foolish and unacceptable.

As we proceed to the power rankings, brackets show Week 6 rank.

1. Houston Texans [2] — Week 7 showcased the best two records in the AFC, with the 5-1 Texans hosting the 5-1 Ravens. Houston scored a franchise-record 43 points, outgaining the Ravens 420-176 and winning by 30. Houston averages 35:23 time of possession, an advantage of nearly 11 minutes.

2. Chicago Bears [3] — The defense is great, but the offense strikes me as more '06 than '85. Chicago is a league-best +13 in turnovers, but just 22nd in offensive yards per game, while Jay Cutler ranks 25th in passer rating (78.3). A great team forces turnovers, but it has to be able to win without them, too. I'm not sure the Bears can win when they don't get takeaways.

3. Atlanta Falcons [1] — The Falcons are 6-0, but they haven't played anyone with a winning record. I don't make a lot of predictions, because I'm bad at them, but in Week 3, I noted the Falcons' easy schedule and called 6-0. Here's another prediction: they'll lose their next game, at Philadelphia in Week 8.

4. San Francisco 49ers [4] — Remember how the replacement officials took way too long to make rulings and couldn't seem to figure out whether penalties were being accepted or declined? If you missed the replacement crews, you loved the job Walt Anderson did on Thursday. Alex Smith has posted his lowest passer ratings of the season in consecutive weeks (43.1 vs. NYG, 74.5 vs. SEA).

5. New York Giants [5] — Third straight win after a disappointing 2-2 start. The Giants couldn't stop Alfred Morris, and they couldn't stop RG3, but they went 8/12 on third downs and generated 4 turnovers. In the second half, New York and Washington combined for three straight drives, and five out of six, ending in turnovers.

6. Green Bay Packers [7] — Aaron Rodgers finally looks like Aaron Rodgers again. He now leads the NFL in touchdown passes (19) and passer rating (109.6), and I think we can stop worrying about Green Bay's offense.

First 3 games: 248 yds/gm, 3 TD, 2 INT, 87.0 rating, 5.3 sacks/gm
Last 4 games: 309 yds/gm, 16 TD, 2 INT, 127.2 rating, 2.5 sacks/gm

In the next three weeks, the Packers have two home games against opponents with losing records, and a bye.

7. New England Patriots [6] — Only team in the NFL with three players over 150 rushing yards. Stevan Ridley (589), Brandon Bolden (234), and Danny Woodhead (161) all rate among the top 50 rushers in the NFL. Punter Zoltan Mesko had a nice game, averaging 41.2 net yards, with four of six punts down inside the 20, and no touchbacks. For the season, Mesko has more fair catches (11) than returns and touchbacks combined (10).

8. Denver Broncos [10] — Last season, the Broncos ranked 23rd in yards per game, 25th in scoring, and 31st in third down percentage. So far this year, they're 6th in yardage, 8th in scoring, and tied for 4th in third down percentage. I realize Peyton Manning is no Tim Tebow, but at least the offense hasn't fallen too far in Tebow's absence.

9. Seattle Seahawks [9] — Marshawn Lynch (101 yds, 5.4 avg) is Niner-proof, but he's the only weapon on offense. The Seahawks rank 31st in scoring, ahead of only the Jaguars, and they're now 0-3 in the NFC West.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers [11] — Inactives included all-pro Troy Polamalu, Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey, starting tackle Marcus Gilbert, and the top two running backs. Naturally, the Steeler receivers chose this game to drop catchable passes, including three or four just by Mike Wallace. As if that weren't enough, the officials accidentally denied Pittsburgh a timeout the team was entitled to, and special teams penalties cost the team 111 yards of field position. Pittsburgh overcame the injuries, drops, penalties, and officiating error with a 24-17 road win over a division opponent. From a certain point of view, it's the best win of the year for a team that's had trouble overcoming adversity.

11. Baltimore Ravens [8] — My TV keeps telling me how great Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense are. Flacco ranks 20th in passer rating, and only 31.7% of his passes result in first downs, 29th in the league, behind superstars like Mark Sanchez and Brandon Weeden. Rodney Harrison put it simply on Sunday: "Ray Rice is your best player, not Joe Flacco." The Ravens are last in the NFL in time of possession (26:06).

12. Minnesota Vikings [13] — We hear all the time now that the NFL is a passing league, and I think that's broadly true, but consider Minnesota's win in Week 7. Christian Ponder dropped back 21 times. Here's how they broke down:

* 8 completions, 58 yards, 3-yard TD
* 7 incompletions
* 3 sacks, -15 yards
* 2 interceptions
* scramble for 2 yards

That's 21 plays, 45 yards, and 2 turnovers. Their quarterback accounted for 45 yards! In the whole game! And they won! Adrian Peterson (153 yds) was in prime form, and the defense held up its end of things (two 4th-down stops, three takeaways). The Vikings were out-gained by 147 yards, lost time of possession by 10:10, and punted on every possession of the second half. And they won!

13. Philadelphia Eagles [12] — This team has too much talent to miss the playoffs twice in a row. At 3-3, they're still very much in the running, but Andy Reid's firing of defensive coordinator Juan Castillo was a signal that Reid recognizes his own job could be in jeopardy if the Eagles continue to underachieve.

14. Washington Redskins [17] — Leading receiver Fred Davis left the game with a season-ending Achilles injury. Santana Moss scored a potential game-winning TD, but he also lost the game-clinching fumble. It was Moss' 22nd career fumble, his 16th on offense (the other 6 were on punt returns). Those 16 fumbles tie Anquan Boldin for the most of any active wide receiver in the league. Active WR/TEs with 10 or more non-special teams fumbles:

t1. Anquan Boldin, 16
t1. Santana Moss, 16
3. Steve Smith, 14
4. Randy Moss, 12
5. Brandon Marshall, 11

Assuming the team re-signs Chris Cooley to replace Davis, he'll also be on the list (11 fumbles).

15. Dallas Cowboys [15] — Beat Carolina despite settling for field goals every time they reached the red zone. Eric Frampton had a big game on special teams, with three solo tackles, stopping three punt returns after a combined 7 yards.

16. San Diego Chargers [14] — Lost 27-3 in their only game against a team with a winning record. Denver will probably go over .500 this week, but they beat the Chargers, too, coming back from a 24-0 halftime deficit to win by double-digits. The good news for San Diego is that the schedule stays manageable, with upcoming games against the Browns, Chiefs, and Buccaneers.

17. New Orleans Saints [21] — Defense yields 465.5 yards per game. That's the worst in the NFL by over 40 yards (Bills, 424.1). More than that, it's the worst in NFL history by over 40 yards (1981 Baltimore Colts, 424.6).

Additionally, the Saints have already allowed 155 first downs, putting them on pace for 413. That would break the record, set more than 30 years ago by the same Colts team, which was probably the worst defense in modern history, holding dubious records for most yards allowed (6,793), most first downs allowed (406), most touchdowns allowed (68), and most points allowed (533). The New Orleans defense is not as bad as the '81 Colts, but it's really, really bad. Fantasy football owners with Broncos on your rosters, rejoice.

18. New York Jets [20] — On a short pass in the fourth quarter, Shonn Greene got knocked out. Like, out cold. He later returned to the game. I don't know how the NFL can pretend it's taking CTE seriously.

19. Miami Dolphins [18] — Did you have their Week 8 matchup at the Jets circled on your calendar? It's become a critical matchup in the AFC playoff picture. I'm confident New England will win the AFC East, but both wild cards appear pretty open right now, and the winner of the Dolphins/Jets game will probably become an early favorite to qualify.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [19] — Blew five opportunities for a touchdown in three minutes. Vincent Jackson went 95 yards but got tackled at the 1-yard line. Okay, 1st-and-goal at the 1, no problem. But LeGarrette Blount — a 1,000-yard, 5.0-average runner in 2010 — carried three times without scoring, then Josh Freeman got tackled at the 5 and New Orleans took over on downs. This whole thing with giving the most important carries — those around the goal line — to your 2nd-best RB has got to end. Being fat does not make you an effective short-distance runner.

21. Arizona Cardinals [16] — Three straight losses following their 4-0 start. That could soon become six straight losses; the next three games are against the 49ers, Packers, and Falcons. LaRod Stephens-Howling, a 4th-year RB usually limited to special teams, carried 20 times for 104 yards (5.2 avg) and a touchdown, with 4 receptions for 45 yards. Stephens-Howling is a Darren Sproles-type player; I hope the Cardinals will keep him involved going forward.

22. St. Louis Rams [22] — Lost at home for the first time this season, but they can redeem themselves in Week 8, with another home game ... at Wembley Stadium. Against the Patriots.

23. Cincinnati Bengals [23] — Wasted two timeouts on unlikely challenges, but lost mostly because they didn't know what to do when an opponent shut down A.J. Green. I realize going all Revis Island on a star receiver is easier said than done, but I don't understand why more defenses don't devote extra resources to players like Green and Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall. Their offenses are lost without those guys.

24. Detroit Lions [24] — Garbage-time offense with a garbage-time quarterback. It's not apparent to me that Matthew Stafford can read defenses or coordinate an offense at the pro level. The Lions have some stats, but they're all from late in the game. About two-thirds of their production comes in the second half or overtime.

Here's Stafford, fourth quarter vs. first three quarters:

I don't believe I've ever seen a split like that before.

25. Tennessee Titans [28] — They have three wins, by a combined 7 points, and four losses, by a combined 96 points. Statistically, Matt Hasselbeck (78.2 rating) has not played as well as Jake Locker (90.2), but the rest of the team seems better with Hasselbeck out there. This team can't go 13-3, but I wonder if Hasselbeck isn't having the same steadying effect Kerry Collins did in 2008.

26. Carolina Panthers [26] — I thought Cam Newton would take a hint after his first mopey post-game press conference attracted so much negative attention. But there he was on Sunday, looking at the ground, eyes mostly shut, doing a passable imitation of Eeyore. And that was before he knew the GM who drafted him had been fired.

27. Oakland Raiders [27] — They won this week, but only because they played against an FCS team. Let's check in on Shane Lechler. He's one of three players to allow over 200 yards on punt returns, and the only one of the three who's already had a bye. He's also tied for the league lead in touchbacks (5), and is the only player in the NFL with as many TBs as punts down inside the 20. I know people love his big leg, but this guy is the worst short-field punter and directional kicker in the league.

28. Indianapolis Colts [29] — Andrew Luck rushed for 2 TDs on Sunday. Active QBs who have rushed for multiple TDs more than once: Michael Vick, 5; Cam Newton, 3; Tom Brady, Jay Cutler, and Robert Griffin III, 2 each.

29. Buffalo Bills [25] — Ryan Fitzpatrick won the QB job after former starter Trent Edwards was nicknamed "Captain Checkdown" for his refusal to throw downfield. This weekend, Buffalo's leading receiver was running back Fred Jackson (8 receptions). The second-leading receiver was running back C.J. Spiller (6). Fitzpatrick ranks 27th in both yards per attempt (6.6) and yards per completion (10.8).

That said, it probably is not Fitzpatrick's responsibility to tackle Chris Johnson. Buffalo's defense is horrid. The Bills allow 177 rushing yards per game, worst in the league.

30. Cleveland Browns [30] — Muffed the extra-point snap on their first touchdown. If they'd kicked the PAT, they could have tried a 57-yard field goal to send the game into overtime. That's not an easy kick, but it's makeable in a dome. Down four, they had to go for it, and Brandon Weeden's fourth down pass was incomplete.

31. Kansas City Chiefs [31] — At the end of the 2008 season, it would have seemed great to choose between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn as your starting QB. Right now, it seems like you should ask Trent Green if he's sure he wants to stay retired.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — The worst offense in the league just lost its only good player. As of this writing, it's not clear how severe Maurice Jones-Drew's foot injury is, but he got carted off the field and re-appeared on crutches. It looks pretty bad.

Need winning picks this weekend? Get $60 in FREE remember picks from Doc's Sports, a trusted name in handicapping since 1971.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:01 PM | Comments (0)

Singin' in the Rain

The baseball gods to whom former star first baseman Will Clark referred after Game 2 sketched poetic justice for the last National League Championship Series out. But the gods don't play baseball games, mortal men do. And a very mortal St. Louis Cardinals manager made a very mortal decision in the bottom of the third Monday night. It finished what the San Francisco Giants started two games earlier and cost him a trip to the World Series in his first major league managing season ever.

And the Giants locked down a pennant in a ferocious ninth inning rain, through which no Giant or Cardinal would back away from playing, when Sergio Romo's fastball got popped up by Matt Holliday to the man he plowed on a double play-breaking late slide in Game 2. Marco Scutaro circled beneath the ball on the swampy infield dirt, clapped his glove around it, and the second baseman whose esteem in the clubhouse had every last Giant bent toward getting him to his first World Series at age 36 avenged his earlier train-wreck in the noblest manner.

Okay, now and then the baseball gods do play a game or two in there, somewhere.

"This great experience," Scutaro puffed, as he accepted the NLCS Most Valuable Player award on the field as the rain continued falling. "This rain never felt so good." His fourteen series hits tied him with Hideki Matsui (2004 American League Championship Series), Albert Pujols (2004 NLCS), and Kevin Youkilis (2007 ALCS) for the most in any League Championship Series.

The man who wanted so badly to get to a World Series at last, the man who helped the Giants shake off the Melky Cabrera disgrace down the stretch, went above and beyond the call of duty to help himself get there.

Scutaro himself opened the fateful third inning with a first pitch single into right center field off St. Louis starter Kyle Lohse, establishing him as 13-for-26 in the set to that point, before Pablo Sandoval hit a first pitch double down the right field line. Inexplicably, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny got Joe Kelly up in the bullpen and not Trevor Rosenthal, his howitzer rookie who seemed to strike out every other batter he faced in the set thus far.

But Lohse walked Posey to load the pads with nobody out, the Giants up 2-0, and Matheny brought in Kelly. Like Rosenthal, he'd been impossible to reach for runs in the set, but unlike Rosenthal he wasn't exactly a slammer. Still, Kelly would be Matheny's man. What happened next, however, was above and beyond his, Matheny's or just about anybody's control.

Maybe Rosenthal would have silenced Hunter Pence post haste. But Kelly fed Pence a swingable first pitch, and Pence swung. His bat seemed to crack in three different places as the head hit the ball, and the ball in turn seemed to do some crazed mashup between the samba and the twist on its way to the shortstop side of second base.

Pete Kozma — the rookie Cardinal who stepped in during the season, when ancient Rafael Furcal went down with an injury — started to break to his right as the ball seemed to dance that way. In a nanosecond the ball seemed to twist back left, and Kozma couldn't twist back with it. The ball got into the outfield, bounding toward slight left center, Scutaro and Sandoval bounded home in a hurry, and St. Louis center fielder Jon Jay, inexplicably, dropped the ball the moment he picked it up, allowing Posey home with the fifth run of the game.

"The read I got," Kozma told reporters after the game, "it was going toward the hole. I thought he came around it. The ball made like a banana and went up the middle. I just reacted to the ball and had no chance at it."

On a night Matt Cain didn't necessarily have his top of the line stuff if he had his top of the line will, and Lohse didn't have much of anything quite that good, despite top of the line pitching from both men earlier in the set and the postseason, Kelly shook off the surrealism to get Brandon Belt to bounce one to the right side of the mound, off his glove. Second baseman Daniel Descalso lunged futilely to make a play. With Belt safe on the infield hit, San Francisco shortstop Brandon Crawford at the plate, and the Cardinal infield at double play depth, Crawford slashed one right to Kozma, who threw home despite his positional depth and Pence — who hadn't driven a teammate home in 55 at-bats until playing "Let's Twist Again" two batters earlier — beat the play home fairly enough.

Kelly finally struck out Cain, who'd hit a hanging curve ball from Lohse up the pipe to drive in the second Giant run in the second, and got Angel Pagan to ground a full-count pitch to shortstop. Kozma picked it cleanly but flipped high to Descalso, who threw low in turn and not in time to double up Pagan, as Belt scored the seventh San Francisco run. Matheny brought in Edward Mujica to get Sandoval on a first pitch line out to Descalso for the side at last.

The Giants sent eleven men to the plate in the third, the Cardinals threw thirty-five pitches in the frame. As Yahoo! Sports's Jeff Passan tweeted, "5 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 crazy swing, 1 whopping mental error. NLCS blown."

Time was, and very recent time at that, when the Cardinals looked like a team who could be stuck for a fourteen-run early deficit and find ways and means to overthrow it. Monday night?

They had men on base in every inning but the fifth and couldn't do a thing with them.

They had men in scoring position in the second, third, sixth, eighth, and ninth, and couldn't do a thing with them.

They had men on second and third in the eighth and the ninth and couldn't find any way to launch one of their once-vaunted uprisings.

Why, they even opened the fifth with a foolish gift when Cain, inexplicably and perhaps inexcusably, picked Game Seven to do what a lot of people thought the Giants would have done as early as Game Three, drilling Holliday on a strike two count. Even with a 7-0 lead that could be called a bush play.

Holliday hadn't exactly been one of the Cardinals' biggest boppers; he'd only driven in two runs while going 4-for-21 all set long entering Game Seven. By the time he lofted that rainy popup to Scutaro to end the game, it almost seemed as though the Cardinals had done so little hitting since winning Game Four it made the Giants' pitching wonder if they shouldn't have taken three or four days off to tune up for the World Series.

The Cardinals' usual little big men came up terribly short and sometimes disappeared entirely. The two prime time pests of 2011, Allen Craig and David Freese, hit a combined .159 between them. Daniel Descalso, arguably the hero of the division series Game Five overthrow amidst a club full of them, hit .200 for the LCS. Holliday finished hitting .207. Monday night, Holliday and Craig each left two men in scoring position with two outs, and Descalso left one.

Imagine how Yadier Molina must have felt when it ended. He's the first man in postseason history to rack up a 4-for-4 Game 7, and the first to get four hits in a Game Seven while his team lost.

Or Lohse. He'd done his best to help himself with second and third in the second, pushing a soft, rising liner out toward the left side that would have tied the game at one at least, except that Crawford timed a perfect leap and speared it for the third out.

"Beware awakening the sleeping giant," Fox broadcaster Tim McCarver purred after Holliday took one on his left arm to the delight of the AT&T Park audience.

No worries. The sleeping giants had been awakened long before. The ones who were down three games to one in this set after falling behind 2-0 to the Cincinnati Reds before overthrowing them in the division series.

They'd been awakened by Barry Zito's magnificent Game Five pitching. By Scutaro's relentless slashing, especially with a barking hip following that Game Two bulldozing, and his equally relentless infield play. By Ryan Vogelsong's virtuoso Game 6 — including his bunt defense-foiling slap up to shortstop and the shaky Kozma to send home Belt in the bottom of the second. By Sandoval's lest-you-forget bomb Game 5 bomb off Mitchell Boggs in the top of the eighth.

By the third inning Monday night.

If every Giant alive had been polled, including manager Bruce Bochy, they might have told you there was no way Matheny couldn't have Rosenthal up, throwing, and ready at the first sign of any rough stuff if Lohse was faltering. Bochy isn't holding his third pennant in 15 seasons because he shudders at the idea that, when the time comes for a stopper, you don't wait until lesser plug-ins have been popped out of the drain.

Kozma fell victim to one of the most surrealistic postseason hits on record and subsequently committed a grave rookie error after Matheny made a grave rookie manager's mistake. All Rosenthal could do when he finally got into the game was to strike out the side in the bottom of the fifth and strand a pair of one-out base-runners in the bottom of the sixth, not to mention setting an NLCS record for rookie punchouts.

And all that did was amplify Matheny's hard, harsh loss of his grip on a maiden season in which he made fools otherwise out of everyone predicting he'd be overmatched, out-thought, out-managed, and out-maneuvered long before an end in which he was simply out-played, offensively and defensively.

He'd beaten the Atlanta Braves in the first National League wild card game. He'd held fast while his charges overthrew the Washington Nationals from a 6-0 deficit in Game 5 of that division series. Now, when pinch hitter Aubrey Huff (for Giants reliever Jeremy Affeldt) cashed in a seventh inning run while bouncing into a double play, and Belt drove one to the back of the right field wall pavilion with two out in the eighth, making it 9-0, Matheny must have felt as though what was won but then lost was now waved in his face.

Then the rain came hard in the bottom of the ninth. The only thing it washed away was the faintest of Cardinals hopes. The music-conscious AT&T Park public address system people forgot to cue up the most appropriate song for the end of this set. No matter. The Giants and their faithful sang in the rain, anyway.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:45 AM | Comments (0)

October 22, 2012

Philosophical Differences

As the college football season enters the final weekend in October, much of the stage has been set for its final acts. Conference races have been distilled down to a few viable contenders, and the shortlists for individual awards have become even shorter. And yet, with a full month of action to make the season's most dramatic decisions, I have made up my mind on how 2012's final act should be written.

I want to see Oregon play Alabama in January's BCS Championship Game.

A few other teams may currently have more impressive resumes (sorry, Florida). And both the Tide and the Ducks still have the nastiest portions of their schedules remaining, with each facing a trip to play a squad that knocked them off in their own stadiums last year (LSU and USC, respectively). But I have seen enough; this is the game I have to see.

What makes the prospect of this Alabama team playing this Oregon team so enticing is the broader implications of such a matchup. Yes, both teams have been dominant. Neither has played a meaningful second half so far this year. But plenty of teams have rolled through regular seasons before this. No, what makes this potential matchup so appealing is what it would tell us about college football's future.

Spread offenses have, well, spread across this country like a pandemic, from the Big 12's spread passing attacks to Oregon and Ohio State's lightning fast spread option looks. While they differ in how they move the ball down the field, all of these offenses are geared around minimizing the time between snaps in large part to prevent defenses from rotating personnel.

And yet there is one enclave where the super-fast spread has not rewritten the game's DNA. In the SEC, teams certainly mix spread elements into their offenses, but Alabama, Florida (post-Urban Meyer), LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina do not push the same frantic pace we see in much of the rest of the country. In fact, as high tempo spread offenses have replicated across the rest of the country, the SEC has kept to to its more traditional ways — and won six consecutive BCS titles in a row.

But didn't we already see an Oregon-SEC championship game just two years ago? Only in name.

That season's champion, Auburn, was not representative of the SEC juggernauts that have dominated the past half-decade. Instead, the 2010 Tigers were led by a self-styled Superman in Cam Newton and played enough defense to avoid full-blown track meets (see their tilt with Arkansas). Gus Malzahn brought the quickest offense the league has seen in recent years, and the result was a different kind of game.

But even more so, that game left us with an unsatisfying result regarding the trajectory of the sport's strategy. Auburn won a close, low-scoring battle riddled with sloppiness. It would have been difficult to leave Glendale, AZ, that day feeling like Auburn, whatever it represented, had conquered Oregon's attack.

2012 Alabama and Oregon are different. They represent beachheads in the way college football will be played in the years to come.

Unlike the NFL, college football's beauty is in its diversity of schemes, locales, and traditions. At the professional level, the double-edged sword of parity punishes coaches who dare to employ the unorthodox. But with so many college programs at such uneven playing levels, the sport's generals have more opportunities to develop its next strategic innovation.

College football is a sport of regional interest, but it is also a sport of national meta-narratives. The SEC's insurrection against the B1G. The Pac-12's constant struggle against East Coast bedtimes. The shifting sands of conference realignment. We love these stories because, frankly, many of the games themselves are uncompetitive outside a larger context.

Which leads us back to the Tide and Ducks. With the amount of football remaining to be played, the likelihood of both teams holding serve and meeting unbeaten in Miami is likely be worse than 50-50. But if this is the matchup we get on January 7, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which one of these two philosophies has an added feather in its cap on January 8. Such a game would have to be more than just three (okay, probably more like four) hours of entertainment. It would answer some pressing questions of two contrasting ideologies.

Forget Governor Romney and President Obama. This is the debate I want to see.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 3:26 PM | Comments (0)

October 21, 2012

MLB's Haves, Have-Nots Not StubHub's Fault

Now that the 2012 Major League Baseball postseason is in full swing, what better time than now to revisit the access fans have to attend MLB games?

It has been the norm over the past decade or so for the haves and have-nots being the new normal during the playoffs, and fans' access to tickets, including the league division series, the World Series, and now the expanded wild card games.

That means that the corporations, media, team employees, and the very well-heeled get first crack at postseason seats. There is then a public lottery for any remaining seats. In the case of major market stadiums, however, that means the high altitude or nose bleed sections; some with obstructed views.

Yet MLB's Major League Baseball Advance Media, LP (MLBAM) decided to put its proverbial toe in the water and to test the secondary ticket or re-sale market, when it decided to enter an agreement with StubHub, a subsidiary of eBay, beginning with the 2008 MLB season.

StubHub, which became an eBay subsidiary in 2005, but five years into its existence, is now the second largest ticket broker service other than Ticketmaster Entertainment, LLC.

As MLB, not unlike other professional sports leagues, college teams — including those belonging to the NCAA — entertainers and musical artists, saw a way to generate more revenue, it too jumped in the pool.

But the StubHub operation and MLB's goals in relationship to StubHub is worthy of some attention after their initial five pact comes to an end this fall. Their contract is up for a possible renewal of their relationship, and Ticketmaster may indeed make a run for MLB's business, before it all shakes out.

Firstly, the secondary ticket has been misrepresented to the average fan by many MLB team spokespersons, within the media, and by MLB itself. And most fans have no inkling as to its intricacies or mechanisms. But that is done by design.

The objective is to hide-the-ball, so to speak. And not unlike many a business these days, such as banks, telecommunications, airlines or hotels, they try to hook customers and redact as much of the fine print as is legally possible; and sometimes not even legally.

How MLB and its teams generate revenue and from which sources is never specifically disclosed, unlike many other industries. And unlike many other industries, MLB still enjoys an anti-trust exemption, long past worthy of its original purpose; considering that it fully conducts intrastate commerce.

But what MLB does have in common with all mega-billion dollar operations is the bottom line; and if necessary, nickel and diming the average consumer, and the least able to afford such tricks.

So MLB found a way to worm itself into the secondary ticket market when it entered its agreement with StubHub, the official secondary ticket seller of MLB.

MLB says that teams have the option of opting out of the StubHub agreement, provided they foot the bill for the sponsorship costs, settling on commission splits and transaction fee shares with a company that can give them the most market penetration and best bang for their buck. And MLB would have to approve the whole deal.

And for MLB owners who are looking to save a buck, additional costs to make a buck is a turn-off, even to the fat-cat teams, which could prove less lucrative than the current MLB deal with StubHub.

The top complaints to MLB regarding the contract with StubHub come from the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Angels, primarily because they have a tremendous amount of costly seats to move on a daily basis during the regular season.

As season ticket holders are the highest priority amongst their ticket holder population, the NY Yankees and the L.A. Angels must ensure that such ticket holders are being accommodated the most, for retention and also to attract prospective season ticket holders.

Most season tickets are the best seats in the house, essentially all seats below the upper decks. And they are bought primarily by corporations and the upper class.

Yet the NY Yankees have seen a decline in the amount of the most expensive of its seats since 2011, their second year of residence in their $1.2 billion stadium. And not unlike their usual way, they laid blame elsewhere, and in this case, StubHub.

But even though StubHub is the official secondary ticket broker for MLB and the NY Yankees, it is perfectly legal for tickets to be sold through other secondary ticket companies. It is actually up to the ticket holder who purchased it in the primary ticket market.

With a management style that is not shy about getting green from any revenue generating source it can, the NY Yankees supposedly get good marks for pretending to be fan-friendly. But the purchasing public knows otherwise.

However, there remains little hard data to prove the NY Yankees' contention that they are getting ripped off by StubHub and the like. Rather, it would appear more likely that MLB and its franchises are over-leveraged and cannot have it both ways.

To wit, the secondary ticket market actually means re-sold tickets. Its inventory almost exclusively derives from the very season ticket holders that teams like the NY Yankees claim that they are protecting.

But it is the season ticket holders who have become a key component in the secondary ticket market, as they have become their very own ticket brokers, legally. Unlike the old-school illegal ticket scalpers and brokers of yesteryear, now the teams want more of a stake in that resold ticket, for which they have already been handsomely paid, but which is now big business.

What some teams such as the Yankees have not built into their ticket pricing structure is dynamic pricing. Dynamic pricing takes into account basing ticket prices upon supply and demand, promotions, visiting teams and even the weather. It is real-time ticket sales.

The fact that the NY Yankees and other teams are failing to get as much revenue they would like from resold tickets is the issue and they can address that by making their own changes, creatively, rather than casting blame.

But because the NY Yankee ticket structure relies so heavily upon corporate season ticket holders, which the lower and middle class fan cannot possibly afford, it is plain as day that the NY Yankees clearly have not only helped to create the Great Ticket Divide at Yankee Stadium, but wants all revenues, including that from double-dipping into tickets.

And as it is the season ticket holder which prospers from the secondary market, instead of worrying about that issue, perhaps MLB and its teams should be thinking more about the game being more affordable to the average fan.

MLBAM is compensated for half the revenue on commissions that StubHub earns — or 12.5% of StubHub's estimated take of 25% plus half of the $10.45 StubHub transaction fee or $5 per transaction. MLBAM also received a generous sponsorship fork-over from StubHub, according to those in the know, but which MLB refuses to disclose.

All revenue received by MLBAM on behalf of MLB is then divided amongst all 30 MLB teams.

The picture that fat-cat teams paint is one that they are the victims. Such is reminiscent of agreements owners make with players in the range of $100-200 million with players and when they do not pan out or find out they could not actually afford them in the first place, whine that it is the union's or someone else's fault.

Given that the Yankees' seats in the lower level are so exorbitant in price — ranging from well over $1,000 for a field-level seat and $300 for one in the mezzanine, the NY Yankees created their own monster.

And MLB has relied upon the cushy crowd and broadcast TV network deals to over-inflate a market which is obviously no longer relying upon the little people.

But it is in fact the little people, and also in this case meaning children — whose families or single parents no longer attend MLB games — that it may regret closing out. Then perhaps MLB will see its own bubble burst, just as the banks, real estate, and airlines have, to name a few.

However, the only way that the little people can now afford to enjoy a NY Yankees game is in the nose bleed section after having to pay nearly $50 to park or upwards of $10 for a hot dog.

And a secondary issue to the ticket issue and could be the underlying reason MLB owners are seeing red rather than green is how it all initially came about.

In the year 2000, all 30 MLB team owners unanimously voted to allow MLBAM to be the exclusive interactive media and internet operation to generate more revenue. Little did they know at the time that it would eventually include MLBAM presiding over a secondary ticket market that had not even been established in the form of StubHub in its infancy in 2000, the year it incorporated.

Back in 2000, teams were still whining about illegal scalpers and illicit brokers, since they did not get a cut of those sales. Now, five years into the StubHub deal, it makes one wonder whether they wish they could now put the toothpaste back in the tube.

But as we have learned from the NFL, NBA, NHL lockouts of 2011 and 2012, respectively, the main sticking point of all the lockouts concerned revenue sharing splits with the players.

And instead of multi-billion dollar leagues proceeding with caution in this volatile economic climate, they remain unabashedly greedy.

As such, the NY Yankees to demand that StubHub should change its paradigm for sales by creating a hard floor or the lowest price for which a ticket may be sold, they are interestingly not asking for a ceiling, as they would only profit from more over-inflation of the price of such a ticket sale.

MLB is certainly not the only league guilty of creating a caste system when it not only comes to attending games, but for fans to even watch games requiring tiered premium TV packages, Internet streaming of games, and satellite radio coverage in order to consume its product. Add to that the multi-media blackout system that cuts out swathes of fans nationwide for many games out of market.

But the NFL, which has a better long-term prognosis for retaining interest in its game and even the NBA, which is enjoying resurgence from fans for the past several years, are still not the game of baseball.

With less and less American children not being exposed to or being out-priced from consuming MLB, its fan base will continue to erode; as its subsidization from the American fan is the life-blood of MLB.

And as such, what was once considered America's national pastime will rather definitively become a part of America's past.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 9:37 PM | Comments (0)

WTA and Best-of-Five Sets in Slams

We are nearing the end of another tennis calendar year. We have once again witnessed a scenario that lately seems to repeat itself in Slam finals for many years. The women's finals are continuously overshadowed by the men's finals. Before I get into the details, let me make my intention clear from the beginning: it is time for WTA to seriously consider implementing some formula that includes a five-set format in the Slams.

First, let's analyze the trend closer.

In Australia, Victoria Azarenka walked out to the court, and at the end of a match that seemed to be more like a promenade for her, she ousted Maria Sharapova 6-3, 6-0 in one hour and 22 minutes. One day later, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal walked out and played one of the most epic (if not the most) finals in the history of the game, ending in a five-set victory of Djokovic after nearly six hours of drama and superior-quality tennis.

During the week that followed, in the world of tennis, you can guess which final match was the central point of discussion. However, one topic that was never discussed was this: which spectator who forked out a large sum of money to see a Slam final got the better value for his/her ticket? The one who attended the women's final or the men's? I will let you guess.

Summer arrived and came Roland Garros. In the women's final, as everyone expected, Maria Sharapova erased Sara Errani off the court in two sets after one hour and 29 minutes. I know personally three people who tried to sell their tickets to the final match the day before on the designed ticket exchange website. One of them sold it for 115 euros and the seat was on the lower level (although in one of the higher rows) about the service line; in other words, a good seat. I don't know if the other two ever sold theirs.

The day before the men's final, I got curious and went on the same website and looked at similarly placed tickets. The cheapest was at 245 euros and it sold quickly. Once again, Nadal and Djokovic faced each other in the final, and despite terrible weather conditions (the match was postponed to the next day in the beginning of the fourth set), they played a match that lasted close to four hours total that ended with Nadal taking home the trophy for the seventh time.

Once again, the press spent the few days following the weekend talking about the ins and outs of the men's final, and hardly a column was to be seen about Sharapova's victory, one of the most popular figures in women's tennis. Once again, what was ignored was whether the ticket holder for the men's final left Court Philippe Chatrier satisfied, or the one holding a ticket for the women's final.

Wimbledon came two weeks later, and finally on the women's side, we had a match that went to three sets. Between the two sets, Serena Williams won comfortably 6/1 and 6/2, Agnieszka Radwanska was able to squeeze in an upset set of 7-5. Technically, it was a three-setter (hey, it even lasted two minutes over two hours!), but it was far from being an exciting, or a "close" match.

Even though it went three sets, it was evident that the women's final would be overshadowed once again by the men's final between Roger Federer and Andy Murray one day later, and it did just that. After a four-set match that lasted three hours and 24 minutes of great tennis, Federer and Murray managed to give the spectators at Wimbledon and at home plenty of thrilling moments. In the days that followed, the tennis world was discussing the 17th Slam of Federer and if Murray would ever win in his first; they were certainly not spending much time on Serena's victory. Another topic that was not discussed is why the ticket for the women's final was priced at 15 pounds less than the men's final.

Finally, U.S. Open arrived. This time around, the women's final match was spectacular and lasted for two hours and 18 minutes. Serena Williams defeated Victoria Azarenka 7-5 in the third set that included a remarkable comeback by Serena. Surely, this time the women's final would get equal time as the men's final in the following days. Once again, it was not to be. After a five-set match equaling the longest final in U.S. Open history, Murray lifted his first Slam trophy ever, defeating Djokovic. Murray's face was seen on TV around the world and his interviews were plastered all over the tennis media in large numbers, whereas Serena's victory-related press coverage was scarce at best. Even with a great women's final match, the ticket holder for a men's final got a better value for his money than the ticket holder for the women's final.

Was 2012 an exceptional year in this context? Hardly.

In Australia, since 2000, women played six finals that went to three sets. Men played only four finals in the same time period that ended in three straight sets. The rest went to four or five sets. The reason is simple: there is a better chance in three-out-of-five set match that a player can turn things around and make a match out of a rout and thus make the match exciting. And let's point out that Australia provides the most favorable outlook for the women's finals in terms of this topic compared to the other Slams. The more we look at other Slams, the worse the picture gets.

Since 2000 in Paris, despite the utter dominance of Nadal for a large portion of the period, there were only three men's final matches that ended in three straight sets. Guess when was the last time the women's final went to a final set? It was in 2001, when Jennifer Capriati defeated Kim Clijsters 12-10 in the third set. Since that year, not only the women's finals ended mostly in two set routs, but only one set went to 7-5, and two sets went to a tiebreaker. In short, spectators averaged somewhere between 60 minutes to 90 minutes matches in women's finals. Is it any wonder that there were some empty seats in the women's final match in Paris?

At Wimbledon, the last three-set final on the women's side, prior to this year, was played in 2006. In that same time period, only one final on the men's side ended in three straight sets! Let's not repeat the reason (see the Australian Open paragraph above). Let's instead move finally to the U.S. Open where the discrepancy could not be any clearer.

Thank god for the thrilling final this year on the women's side because the last time a women's final match went three sets prior to it, hold on to your seat, was in 1995 when Steffi Graf defeated Monica Seles! That is 17 years ago, folks.

It is time for WTA to seriously consider moving to a five-set format in the Slams. This has nothing to do with the "equal prize money" issue and that discussion belongs to another topic. This is about the spectator, about the one person that seems to consistently get the short end of the stick: the tennis fan. How about considering the one person that we claim "sports are made for?"

Yet, WTA seems so stuck in the equal prize money discussion that it is overlooking the tennis fan. In all fairness, the WTA CEO Stacey Allaster did say during the year-ending WTA Championships in Istanbul last year that the WTA would not be against playing five-set in Slams, but that Slam organizers were not looking favorably to the idea. But that is not an issue that cannot be overcome.

For example, women could move to playing three-out-five sets beginning in the quarterfinals, and men could do the same, and the scheduling issue would be manageable for Slams. Would that not consequently take care of that other incessant debate about the equal prize money distribution? Both sides would then shut up and play tennis, since everything would be on equal grounds and anyone who still defends unequal prize money distribution would look like a true outcast. But again, that is not the point of this article. The main point is that the value of the tennis spectator would be put ahead of all else if women moved to a five-set format in the Slams thanks to some variation of a formula similar to the one above.

I read that Billie Jean King, when asked about playing best-of-five sets for women, questioned why women should play five sets and that she finds five-set matches on the men's side "boring." Please, Ms. King! Can you seriously claim that you found this year's Australian Open and U.S. Open men's finals boring? Somebody needs to tell Ms. King that it's time to visualize things without the confined boundaries equal prize money debate for once and think of the tennis fan, the marketability of women's tennis, and how to bring to equal footing "the sports ticket value" of women's tennis with the men's.

Yes, Ms. King, you have been a valuable pioneer in bringing women's tennis to where it is now, but it's time for WTA to step out of your shadow and tackle the issues in 2012. Every leader needs to know when to realize that their time has passed and that they would serve what they love best by simply stepping aside, or at least putting their influence on the shelf for good. That time has come for you, Ms. King.

Finally, for those who may not know: it would not be the first time women have played five sets. From 1984 to 1998, the finals of the year-ending WTA Championships were played best-of-five sets. Can anyone deny that this had something to do with the fact that the final match in 1996, when Steffi Graf defeated Martina Hingis in a five-set thriller, is now down in history as one of the most exciting matches in women's tennis? Or did Ms. King find that fantastic encounter boring, too? I think not.

Allaster and WTA need to take the right steps. Most of all, they need some courage. They need to put aside the potential complaints of a few players who may object to it because they are afraid of getting injured or not being in good enough condition to play a five-setter (although, they would never verbalize it such), and they need to step out of the shadow of Ms. King. The WTA has great power and Slam organizers would not stand a chance to refuse if only WTA obliged. But they need to act for the sake of none other than the tennis fan.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 12:00 PM | Comments (2)

October 20, 2012

The Tigers Finish a Mercy Killing

CC Sabathia sat in the Yankee dugout gazing upon the field Thursday night with a look, to an outsider, that seemed suspended between resignation and disbelief, moments after his day ended two thirds of the way through the bottom of the fourth. His Detroit counterpart, Max Scherzer, who had to get past late-season shoulder barking, would remain in the serious business of absolutely throttling a Yankee lineup for another inning and a third, doing to the Yankees what Sabathia once did to the other guys.

Sabathia had just been hit for two fateful home runs. He could see, in case he had entertained even a single thought to the contrary, that his Yankees were being shoved out of an American League Championship Series in perhaps the most ignominious way in their long and long-enough-storied history. The inning sketched too cruelly for even a shameless Yankee hater to feel anything other than absolute pity, if only for a moment.

Swinging full-count strikeout by Austin Jackson, single dumped into center field on 1-1 by Omar Infante, and Miguel Cabrera crowning the first service into the left field seats. Three-pitch swinging strikeout by Prince Fielder, full-count single to left slashed by Delmon Young, and Jhonny Peralta jolting the first service, right over dead center of the zone, only a few feet short of where Cabrera's bomb landed. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Sabathia may have beaten the Orioles twice in the division series but he'd begun throwing extremely hittable pitches that held on only because the Orioles got too eager, too early, too often to put the Yankees away. These Tigers weren't those Orioles. Their plate discipline was something the aging Yankees could only envy.

The Tigers had merely pried their first two runs out of Sabathia before the fourth. In the fourth, they bludgeoned him for their next four. Four Yankee bullpen bulls later, Jackson bludgeoned Derek Lowe, who'd once helped the Boston Red Sox overthrow a 3-0 Yankee ALCS lead, with a high liner into the left field seats. An inning later, Peralta hammered the Yankee coffin shut with a second launch, this one practically to the same landing spot, off David Robertson.

Leaving it to Phil Coke, who'd been sent to the Tigers as part of the deal making Curtis Granderson a Yankee, to finish what he started, after Octavio Dotel and Drew Smyly picked up Scherzer, and put the Yankees away with the final six outs swiftly enough that the Yankees should probably send him a note saying thank you for such a merciful, swift burial.

These Tigers didn't just win the pennant. They drove it to their mast using these Yankees as nails.

"Four more wins, guys!" Cabrera hollered, half as a victory salute and half as an admonitory reminder amidst the whoop-de-do, after Jayson Nix popped up high over the infield and Fielder windmilled everyone else away, doing his dancing teddy bear steps on the dirt until the ball and the pennant dropped into his mitt with a hearty snap.

You say nothing against the Tigers' heart, will, and execution when you say this couldn't possibly rank as one of the hardest-earned pennants of recent memory, even if you could say in tandem that these Yankees, their cumulative age exposed so cruelly despite a 95-win season, proved to be easier pickings than anyone watching them shake off injury after injury on the regular season, then push back the Orioles after getting that close to falling to them, would have offered going in.

Young was named the Most Valuable Player of the LCS. You can forgive him if he's tempted to add to the trophy's engraving that he drove in as many runs by himself than the entire .157-hitting Yankee team managed to do all set long.

What else did it say that Scherzer, on the Yankees' dollar, became one of only two men in postseason history to strike out ten batters in less than five innings, his afternoon — and, incidentally, his no-hit bid — ending only when Eduardo Nunez opened the Yankee sixth with a triple off the left center field wall and, after punch-out number ten at Ichiro Suzuki's expense, Nick Swisher finally found enough of a batting stroke to send an RBI double off the right center field wall, before Mark Teixiera took a walk on one strike and four straight balls?

Scherzer has come far enough to cherish every prime moment of the Tigers' season. Not every man, young or otherwise, can yank himself past the suicide of his 21-year-old brother, whom he once credited for teaching him the value of statistical analysis, and crown a splendid season of his own in the aftermath by pitching his team to the World Series

What did it say that, when Smyly came in to spell Scherzer, Alex Rodriguez finally poked his nose out of the Yankee mousehole (as a pinch hitter for Raul Ibanez, who'd finally run out of his allotted batter's box magic) and, with a chance to put the Yankees back to within two with one swing, lofted a 1-2 pitch lazily enough to center field for the side?

What did it say that the Tigers' starting pitchers allowed a measly two earned runs the entire set; that Jose Valverde, who pitched himself out of the Tigers' closing role for the LCS at least, and possibly beyond, surrendered two fewer earned runs than the Yankees produced in the set; and, that Coke, a pitcher whose regular season featured a 1.65 walks/hits per inning pitched rate, flattened his former organization with 0.80 WHIP?

What would it say if, when all is said, done, unsaid, and undone, there will yet be those in Yankeeville who refuse to believe a team that ground its way to keep the American League East was vulnerable enough to be pushed against the wall by a Baltimore team that got thisclose to overthrowing them for the division; then, through it, by a Detroit team who had to hang in and steal the American League Central from a Chicago team that plain ran out of fuel when the Tigers found a reserve on which to draw?

The last time the Yankees were shoved out of a postseason in a sweep was by the Kansas City Royals in 1980. The last time they never enjoyed a game lead in any postseason set was in 1963, when Sandy Koufax and company laid upon them the first World Series sweep they had ever suffered.

There were moments when these Tigers reminded made you think you were seeing the second coming of Koufax-Drysdale on the mound and of George Brett and company at the plate and in the field. Even Fielder got in on the glove fun with a spectacular backhand snatch of Cano's sixth-inning smash before throwing him out by about a nanosecond.

When Fielder snapped the final out into his mitt, Coke let out a whoop, then windmilled his arm the way Peter Townshend of the Who once played his guitar and threw his glove to the grass so hard you were half surprised the glove didn't drill its way to the center of the earth, and perhaps beyond.

He had every right. His first major league pitching assignment came in the same ballpark, against the team for whom he now stood triumphant, getting the side out in order as the Yankees went on to finish a conquest of Verlander.

Now, Coke wears a Tiger uniform, and he's closed three, saving two of the Tigers' four LCS wins. In the same deal that made him a Tiger and Granderson a Yankee, Austin Jackson became a Tiger, pitcher Ian Kennedy became an Arizona Diamondback, and Max Scherzer shed his Snake skin for Tiger fur. And Yankee general manager Brian Cashman, happy though he was to land Granderson, fretted about what he might have surrendered. "You're trading the future for here and now," Cashman said when that deal was consummated at the 2009 winter meetings.

That future just helped bank the Tigers' pennant and drape it over a Yankee coffin. The Coke side of life is looking pretty damn good for a Detroit that could surely use the better side of life these days.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:23 PM | Comments (0)

October 19, 2012

Look, Ma, No Atrocities!

Presumably, the world can breathe a little easier now that the first post-Slide confrontation between Matt Holliday and the San Francisco Giants has ended without on-field amputations, at-the-plate decapitations, or other actual or reputed disembowelings. None involving Holliday, anyway.

The nearest thing to a legitimate atrocity in the St. Louis Cardinals' 3-1 Game 3 win was the one committed by Carlos Beltran's unexpected substitute, in the third inning, in his first time at bat after stepping in for the wounded slugger. The Giants could and did beat Chris Carpenter on the mound earlier in this National League Championship Series, but they could not and did not beat Matt Carpenter stepping into the Cardinals' unexpected right field breach and hitting a go-ahead two-run homer whose advantage survived an eventual 3.5 hour rain delay.

In the top of the first the Giants went down meekly enough, a two-out single by Pablo Sandoval off St. Louis starter Kyle Lohse notwithstanding. San Francisco starter Matt Cain opened the bottom of the first by hitting Cardinals center fielder Jon Jay on a no-balls, one-strike count, a certain tip that Cain was nowhere near a thought about retaliating for the late double play takeout slide Holliday imposed upon Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro Monday.

Jay had barely measured his lanes for a possible advance when Beltran dialed Area Code 6-4-3 on a 1-2 pitch, and Holliday checked in for his first plate appearance of the day. Nothing thrown to him appeared anywhere near the inside half of the plate, never mind the specific vicinity of Holliday's flesh and bones, and you would like to think the Giants' thoughts went no further than assenting to their one-time first base star turned team executive, Will Clark, who noted Monday night that the baseball gods have their own ways with karma.

Those gods may or may not have stirred their spiritual cauldrons toward the Giants' 7-1 Game Two win. Holliday may have plowed Scutaro in the top of the first with no intent deadlier than thwarting a double play in progress, but he confessed to dropping into his slide late enough while hastening time and again to plead that he bore no malice aforethought, did not want Scutaro injured at all, and had no intent of blowing Scutaro out of the game, as happened after the sixth inning.

Scutaro in the interim had landed the key blow in response, a fourth-inning, two-run single that produced a third run when Holliday, under influence of the gods' cauldrons or no, misplayed the hit into allowing a third Giant run to come home.

On Wednesday afternoon, however, those cauldrons may or may not have stirred them in the direction of Holliday spanking an 0-2 pitch right up to Scutaro himself. Bounding as though it were chipped to reach Scutaro's glove no matter what might cross its path, including black cats or holdover rally squirrels, Scutaro merely turned, withdrew the ball from his glove, and threw to first base for the side.

And Cain lived up to his implicit promise not to seek explicit vengeance for his mate, who had suggested himself the best vengeance would be nine innings of shutout baseball at the Cardinals' expense. Cain showed no reluctance to work inside the zone if and when he needed, but he showed an equivalent lack of reluctance to take his chances on Holliday, after one called strike just off the middle and a swinging strike two on a pitch in about the same neighborhood, spanking one only slightly in off the middle and shoot it toward nothing more dangerous than a hungry infielder.

He got what he sought and neither Holliday nor Scutaro was any worse for that first inning showdown. Beltran, alas, was lost for the rest of the game, apparently straining a knee testy ever since he annoyed the New York Mets by undergoing surgery upon it in spring 2010.

So Matt Carpenter entered the game to play right field for St. Louis in the second inning. The Giants parlayed a leadoff single by center fielder Angel Pagan and Scutaro's followup double into the game's first run in the top of the third, when Pagan came home while Sandoval occupied himself with grounding out. But in the bottom of the third, with Jay aboard on a two-out single, Carpenter, 1-for-5 in previous postseason pinch hitting duty and now in his first League Championship Series plate appearance, squared up Cain's best slider on 2-2 and drove it into the seats just above the right field bullpen.

"He's a really good pitcher obviously," said Carpenter to reporters about Cain, against whom he had been 4-for-4 against the stout Giant on the regular season. "I've had some success. I just go up there and try to battle, get a good pitch to hit."

The rain delay proved to be profit for Busch Stadium's beer vendors, since it arrived after several earlier lightning sightings but before the final out of the seventh inning, which is the major league curfew on in-game beer sales. But it proved to be no help to the Giants despite play resuming with two outs, Javier Lopez relieving Cain, and Jay grounding out to first for the side, because the delay came only after David Freese whacked a one-out double to left, Daniel Descalso earned an intentional walk thanks to his prior postseason feats, Pete Kozma singled to load up the pads, and Shane Robinson — who entered the game to play right field in the top of the inning while Carpenter moved to his natural first base — pushed Freese home on an infield ground out.

Around the rain delay, though, Mitchell Boggs came in to strike out Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt with one out and two on to shove the Giants out of their own seventh-inning threat, pre-delay. Post-delay, Jason Motte came in for a two-inning save, and one and all more or less forgot that starter Lohse had managed to keep the Giants in check despite permitting five walking men in five and two third innings of husky pitching.

And Matt Holliday, who would fly out to right immediately following Carpenter's blast and strike out swinging in the sixth, would finish his day's work by grounding out to Scutaro yet again, and with no concurrent acts on either side for which angry fans might demand a human rights commission probe.

But he also stole Sandoval's shot at a damaging extra base hit when he played Kung Fu Panda's drive off the wall as if he'd been reading it from the moment it left the bat and held the big man to a single while ensuring Buster Posey's followup single couldn't send the tying run home. Holliday's Cardinals also finished their day's work of play with a two games to one series lead over the Giants.

There are limits upon the favor by which the baseball gods comfort the afflicted.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 2:26 PM | Comments (0)

October 18, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 7

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-9)

The 49ers were manhandled by the Giants 26-3 last week at Candlestick Park, and San Francisco failed to avenge last year's NFC championship defeat. The winner of Thursday night's Seahawks/49ers contest will hold at least a share of the NFC West lead.

"That was a humbling experience," Jim Harbaugh said. "You could say we had a taste of humble pie. And going from 614 yards of total offense to 314 — that would be a taste of 'humble pi.'

"As you would expect in San Francisco, the shift in the balance of power in the NFC sent Richter scale readings off the chart. Some went as high as Alex Smith's passer rating for the game."

The Seahawks took down the Patriots 24-23 last week, despite giving up 395 passing yards to Tom Brady. Seattle was led by Russell Wilson, who tossed three scores in a nearly flawless game.

"Russell stood tall," Pete Carroll said. "He came up big. He's grown as a quarterback. Of course, I'm speaking figuratively. On a related note, Richard Sherman was 'short' with Brady. Richard can talk smack with the best of them. I think it's more indicative of his brashness if we call him 'The Mouth That Roared' as opposed to 'The Mouth That Tweeted.'

"But our offense is predicated on running the ball, and we've strayed from Marshawn Lynch lately. That will change. That's why I'm declaring this week 'Beast Awareness Week.' And I plan to feed the 'Beast.' The last time I vowed to feed a comparable beast, it was Reggie Bush's family. They were hungry for cash."

In a game featuring two of the NFL's top 4 defenses, expect points to come at a premium. And expect California novelty rockers Tenacious D to perform the national anthem.

Both defenses put a touchdown on the board, and Smith outplays Wilson down the stretch. 49ers win, 20-16.

Tennessee @ Buffalo (-3)

The Titans stunned the Steelers 26-23 last Thursday, winning on Rob Bironas' field goal on the game's final play. At 2-4, the Titans are still well behind the Texans in the AFC South, but the win was a step in the right direction for Mike Munchak's squad.

"Speaking of 'steps in the right direction,'" Munchak said, "Chris Johnson rushed for 91 yards on 19 carries. That puts him well on pace to be overpaid."

The Bills are 3-3 after their overtime 16-13 win at Arizona last week, joining the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins in a tie atop the AFC East.

"This was a monumental win for the Bills' organization," Chan Gailey said. "A Buffalo kicker nailed a field goal on the last play of the game to beat an NFC team. Too bad it was 21 years too late.

"The parity in the AFC East is amazing. 'Parity' is another way of saying 'the Patriots are playing like crap."

Bills win, 30-24.

Dallas @ Carolina (+3)

The Cowboys fell to 2-4 after a heartbreaking 31-29 loss in Baltimore last Sunday, despite piling up 227 yards on the ground. Tony Romo's four-yard scoring pass to Dez Bryant pulled the 'Boys to within two, but Bryant dropped a perfect pass from Romo in the ensuing two-point conversion.

"Normally," Romo said, "Dez is my go-to receiver. Sometimes, that means I 'go to' him and ask him how he dropped such a pass.

"We've got to be better with quicker play calls and better use of time. Time in and time out, time outs mostly, we've squandered opportunities. As time outs go, Jason Garrett is the 'anti-Chris Webber' — he has a time out and won't use it. Rumor has it that Jerry Jones is bringing in Flava Flav to revamp our clock management skills."

The 1-4 Panthers are looking to turn their season around against the Cowboys. Cam Newton has struggled, and has faced the majority of criticism for Carolina's shortcomings. However, Carolina general manager Marty Hurney has accepted some of the blame for the team's problems.

"Let's face it," Hurney said. "Newton has a lot on his plate. That's much harder to deal with than having a lot on your collection plate, which is what his father Cecil faced.

"This team has given me a 'sports Hurney-a.' Our season has been turned inside-out. I think Ryan Khalil spoke for all of us when he predicted a Carolina Super Bowl run. We were supposed to ascend; instead, we're ass-end. Incidentally, Khalil is out with a season-ending injury. Team doctors are saying it's a left foot injury; word on the street is it's a neck issue, an injury sustained from sticking his neck out too far while picking the Panthers to go all the way."

After the 'Boys win the coin toss, Garrett calls a time out — just to see how many time outs he has left. After that, in typical Dallas fashion after falling apart last week, the Cowboys put it all together, and down the Panthers with a convincing 31-20 win.

Baltimore @ Houston (-4)

After their 31-29 win over the Cowboys last week, and losses by the Steelers and Bengals, the Ravens lead the AFC North by two games. They'll face their sternest test against the Texans, who boast the NFL's best defense. The Ravens lost Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb to season-ending injuries last week.

"Many people said our defense couldn't get worse," John Harbaugh said. "It just did. It was a double dose of bad news to find out that Webb and Lewis were done for the year. 'Nevermore,' quoth the Raven doctor. 'Nevermore.'"

The Texans lost for the first time last week after running into a desperate Green Bay team. Aaron Rodgers threw for 338 yards and 6 touchdowns, and the Texans fell to 5-1, still good enough for a sizeable lead in the AFC South.

"That's called a 'discount double reality check," Arian Foster said. "Call us the Felix Baumgartner of the NFL, because we broke the sound barrier falling back to Earth."

"The Ravens' defense is vulnerable. They say everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes the holes in the Baltimore defense. I fully expect to surpass the 100-yard rushing mark on Sunday, probably by 1:30 Eastern time."

The Texans rely on their running game, keeping the Baltimore offense off the field. Houston enjoys a 2:1 advantage in time of possession, and Houston, much like Baltimore, sees their best defenders watching from the sidelines.

Houston wins, 34-23.

Washington @ NY Giants (-7)

The Giants moved atop the NFC East standings with a convincing 26-3 win over the 49ers in San Francisco, only to find their cars had been burglarized, thus becoming the second team to be "robbed" while at an NFC West stadium. At 4-2, New York has a one game lead over the Eagles and Redskins.

"The 49ers talked the talk. We walked the walk. They put a foot in their mouth; we put one is their ass. The New York Post headlined their story on the game 'The San Francisco Mis-Treat.'

"Not many people are aware of this, but backup middle linebacker Mark Herzlich missed his flight back to New York. No offense to the 49ers, but it seems we left our 'Mark' in San Francisco."

The Redskins whipped the Vikings 38-26 behind a huge day from Robert Griffin III, who threw for one score and rushed for 138 yards and 2 scores. Washington is 3-3 and one game behind the Giants in the NFC East.

"RG3 amazingly recovered from last week's concussion," Mike Shanahan said. "Washington's had long line of quarterbacks with half a brain, but none have ever performed quite like RG3.

"It won't be easy for the Giants game-planning for RG3. He's a double threat — he can beat you with his arm or his feet. It all depends on whether RG3 is feeling 'froggy' or 'foggy.'"

There are two big-time quarterbacks on the field at MetLife Stadium, so no one will be mistaking this for a Jets' game. Griffin keeps the 'Skins in it, but Eli Manning leads a late drive that culminates in Lawrence Tynes' game-winning field goal.

New York wins, 31-28.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+3)

The Saints are 1-4, and barring an Atlanta collapse, won't win the NFC South, but can contend for a wild card berth assuming they finish no worse than 9-7, and pray for help.

"The Falcons are running away with the division," Drew Brees said. "We're running away from it.

"But we're excited to possibly have Jonathan Vilma back for Sunday's game. The NFL is allowing him to play, provided the only thing he pays to anyone are "respects." It's interesting that Roger Goodell is allowing Vilma to play in Tampa, home of the Buccaneers, a mascot that spends its time searching for 'bounty.'"

The Buccaneers overpowered the Chiefs 38-10 last week, breaking a three-game losing streak. Sunday's game against the Saints is 'Throwback Day" at Raymond James Stadium.

"That's right," Greg Schiano said. "It's 'Throwback Day,' which, in Tampa, means Warren Sapp will undoubtedly badmouth his former team. Sapp's never at a loss for words. He's never pled the 5th, but he has pled the 7th and 13th."

The Bucs roughhoused Brady Quinn last week. Brees is no Quinn. I'm not sure what Quinn's record as a starter is, but Brees has more NFL records as a starter. Plus, Tampa will be without its best defender and No. 1 stimulant, Aqib Talib, who has been suspended for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy.

New Orleans wins, 30-21.

Green Bay @ St. Louis (+6)

Is the Pack back? Aaron Rodgers certainly is, after torching the vaunted Texans' defense for 338 yards and six touchdowns in Green Bay's 42-28 win over Houston.

"That was a big road win for us," Rodgers said. "More importantly, it's one that we got credit for. Just call us the 'Houston Spoilers.'

"CBS' Shannon Sharpe had some very critical comments about me on The NFL Today. That was hard for me to understand, but after my translator filled me in, I knew what I had to do."

The Rams are 3-3 after dropping a close 17-14 game in Miami last week. St. Louis is one game behind the 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks in the NFC West.

"I like our position," Jeff Fisher said. "I you would have told me at the start of the season that we'd be one game out of the division after six games, I would have said, 'The division leader is 1-5?'

"But we'll have to pressure Rodgers. Green Bay has a great linebacker in Clay Matthews. We have one in James Laurinaitis. Most people know that James in the son of former professional wrestler Road Warrior Animal. Most people don't know that James was also a top baseball player for one of the most feared youth teams in history, the 'American Legion of Doom.'"

Rodgers finds resistance through the air and compensates with two rushing scores. The Packers' defense gives us an early touchdown, but responds and shuts down the Ram attack in the second half.

Green Bay wins, 26-13.

Arizona @ Minnesota (-3)

The Cardinals lost their first overtime game of the year, dropping a 16-13 decision to the visiting Bills. Instead of being 5-1 with sole possession of the NFC West lead, the Cardinals are 4-2 and tied with Seattle and San Francisco for the lead.

"It was in a losing effort," Ken Whisenhunt said, "but Larry Fitzgerald became only the second player in history to record 10,000 receiving yards before the age of 30, joining Randy Moss. Larry's caught everything Moss has, except 'hell,' and probably herpes."

The Vikings dropped a 38-26 decision to the Redskins, as the Minnesota defense gave up more than 23 points for the first time this year.

"Our defense was exposed against the Redskins," Leslie Frazier said. "Robert Griffin III is nearly impossible to stop. I can't say the same for John Skelton. We're not sure what to expect from Skelton. Usually, when there's talk of people defending 'John's' in Minnesota, it's lawyers representing passengers on a sex boat cruise on Lake Minnetonka."

Minnesota wins, 23-13.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis (-3½)

The Browns won for the first time last week, racing past the Bengals 34-24 behind two Brandon Weeden touchdown passes and a defense that forced 4 turnovers. The win snapped a 13-game losing streak that spanned two seasons.

"If we beat Indianapolis," Weeden said, "I'll be 2-0 against 'Colts' this year.

"NFL owners unanimously voted to approve the sale of the team to Jimmy Haslam. And team president Mike Holmgren has decided to retire at the end of the season. Finally, fans are getting what they wanted out of Holmgren — a good decision."

Andrew Luck turned the ball over three times in the Colts' 35-9 loss to the Jets last week, leaving Indy at 2-3 in the AFC South.

"I look forward to this battle of rookie quarterbacks with Weeden," Luck said. "Weeden is the oldest rookie in the league at 29, and also a former professional baseball player. I think it's great that he Browns are recycling old athletes. Cleveland's going 'Green'; Weeden's going 'gray.'

Indianapolis wins, 30-20.

Jacksonville @ Oakland (-5)

The Raiders had the undefeated Falcons on the ropes last week in Atlanta, but eventually fell 23-20. Atlanta remained undefeated, while the Raiders fell to 1-4.

"The AFC West is still wide open," Dennis Allen said, "and we're still very much in the race. Denver and San Diego are 3-3 at the top of the division. Thanks to Peyton Manning, the Broncos lead by a neck.

"We should have beaten the Falcons. This team is still learning how to finish. I think they already know where to finish."

The 1-4 Jaguars have scored only 65 points in five games for an average of 13 per game. One bright spot is Maurice Jones-Drew, who is sixth in the AFC in rushing with 408 yards.

"MJD is carrying this team," Mike Mularkey said. "It's an awfully light load. Some say he's a 'one-man wrecking crew.' That's only partially true — Jones-Drew is 'one man,' the rest of the Jags are the wrecking crew."

How is playing in Oakland similar to playing in Jacksonville for the Jaguars? There'll be very few Jaguars' fans in the stadium. It's the "Black Out in the Black Hole."

Oakland wins, 27-16.

NY Jets @ New England (-10½)

There's a four-way tie atop the NFC East, as all four team stand at 3-3. The Patriots could have been alone at the top, but blew a late lead to the Seahawks last week in a 24-23 loss.

"That's a game we probably should have won," Tom Brady said. "That's got nothing to do with Sunday's game; I just happen to like quoting statements made by the 2002 Oakland Raiders after the 'Tuck Rule' game.

"I've got to hand it to Seattle's Richard Sherman. He can trash-talk with the best of them, and backs it up. He really let me have it in a harsh and blunt manner. I guess that was his 'brusque with greatness.'"

The Jets exploded for five touchdowns in a 35-9 win over the Colts. Shonn Greene rushed for 161 yards and 3 TDs, and Mark Sanchez played mistake-free.

"Shonn did something Jets' fans have been begging me to do for weeks," Rex Ryan said. "And that's taking the ball out of our quarterback's hands.

"There is no quarterback controversy here. Sanchez is the starter, and Tim Tebow is the backup. Sanchez does take quarterbacking advice from Tebow. Does that sound crazy? Indeed it does. But so does Tebow taking dating advice from Lawrence Taylor."

The Jets won last week. The Patriots didn't. According to Bill Belichick, spying on an opponent, as well as turnabout, is fair play.

New England wins, 40-24.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+1)

Ben Roethlisberger became the Steelers all-time leader in passing yardage last week in a losing effort in Tennessee. Pittsburgh lost 26-23, but Big Ben's 363 yards put him ahead of Terry Bradshaw.

"I may have had some personal issues in my career," Roethlisberger said, "but this should definitely put me in the Hall Of Fame. I just hope they make my bust out of bronze and not porcelain.

"James Harrison claims he's had 'double-digit' concussions. That explains a lot. Apparently, when James says he's going 'headhunting,' he's looking for his own. Fittingly, the game is in the 'Jungle,' so don't be surprised to see some players in a 'vegetative' state."

The Bengals crumbled in the second half at Cleveland, giving up 27 second-half points in a 34-24 loss. The loss dropped the Bengals to 3-3, and they trail the 5-1 Ravens by two games in the AFC North.

"We collapsed," Marvin Lewis said. "This is not what Cincinnati football is about. If Paul Brown were here today, I wouldn't be.

"The Steelers' defense isn't what it used to be. The 'Steel Curtain' is now the 'Steel Uncertain.'"

The fired-up Bengals race to an early 13-3 lead, but Roethlisberger's uncanny scrambling ability enables a late, game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Steelers win, 26-24.

Detroit @ Chicago (-6)

The Lions snapped a three-game losing streak with a big 26-23 overtime win in Philadelphia last week. At 2-4, Detroit trails the Bears and Vikings by three games in the NFC North.

"What another great comeback," Jim Schwartz said. "As long as you don't 'yardage' at the end of the phrase, you can easily say this team 'doesn't give up.' Don't call us the 'Cardiac Kids'; that would insinuate that we have heart.

"This is a must-win game for us, the first in a series of ten. If we win, we're within one game of the division lead. With a loss, we'll be wishing we were in the AFC."

The Bears are 4-1 and have the outright lead in the NFC North. After a bye week, they are also well-rested and looking for their first division win.

"We've implemented a no-huddle offense," Jay Cutler said. "I love it, mostly because I can say 'I'm not close to my teammates' and not be criticized."

Chicago wins, 33-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:56 PM | Comments (0)

Early Tourneys: The Dark Horses

It has been five years since Anaheim had its chance to host a holiday tournament. While the state of Hawaii has been a college basketball destination for nearly 30 years, the city of Honolulu has only held their own event for four. However young these tournaments are, though, they aren't waiting in line to fill their fields. Both of them involve a nice mix of big-name programs and hopeful upstarts.

DirecTV Classic (literally just changed its name last week)

The names on the front of the jerseys should be well-known to most college basketball fans. Although only two schools are from Power Six conferences (Cal and Georgia Tech), most of the programs have made noise in the last decade. What headlines will pop up in the shadow of Disneyland?

Back on Track

Mike Montgomery has rejuvenated the Golden Bears' program during his four years back on the college scene. In three of those four season, Cal has reached the NCAAs (the other one ended in the NIT). Brian Gregory was brought to Atlanta to try and rebuild a Yellow Jackets program that chronically underachieved in the late Paul Hewitt-era.

The Bears lost one of their key starters from last year, but have the majority of their core back for another run at a top-three finish in the Pac-12. Tech will take a little longer to get there, with a squad mainly constructed of underclassmen looking up at the rest of the ACC. We'll find out how much progress Gregory's making in these three days.

Drought Busters

Rice is the only school in this group that hasn't seen an NCAA tournament in the last 20 years (or 40 years). However, that drought might come to an end sooner rather than later. Just like Todd Bozeman before him, Owls head coach Ben Braun is trying to shake off the firing from his former job (ironically, Cal) and make a return to the field of 68. After bottoming out with eight wins in his second year at the helm, the squad has improved each of the last two, making a postseason appearance last March (in the CIT).

Drexel was much closer to the NCAAs. After a 16-year absence, the Dragons were three points away from securing the CAA's automatic bid. Now, Bruiser Flint's team has one goal in mind: get to the Big Dance. He's got the experience to accomplish that, with four starters from that CAA Championship game returning to Philly. (Spoiler alert: Drexel is my favorite to win the Classic trophy.)

Quite the Matchup

For the Dragons to get to a title in Anaheim, they have to get through one of the best games of any first round offering during the holidays. Drexel's opponent is perennial NCAA participant Saint Mary's. The Gaels wound up in the NIT last year (along with Drexel), but they continue to make noise annually on the Pacific coast.

I'm a fan of this game for many reasons. This is a pairing of two men that can flat out coach in Flint and SMC's Randy Bennett. It's East vs. West (far, far west with all the Australian influence). It's also a battle between two of the three best Mid-Major conferences out there in the CAA and the WCC. If you've reached your fill of football on Thanksgiving day, this should provide a great alternative to staving off a tryptophan nap.

Diamond Head Classic

This is what you might term the Holiday "last call." After this specific event, teams around the country have to "sober up" from their visits to (and from) other corners of the U.S. And for the eight schools that get to entertain the last "happy hour" of 2012, here's what Diamond Head brings.

The Holly Jolly Quirk

The thing that this event does right is all in the timing. With its placement at Christmas instead of Thanksgiving, Diamond Head sets itself apart from all of the other tournaments. There are other showcase games around this time of year, but having a set of twelve games available for everyone and Santa to follow could really be a boon. That is, if more high-profile programs decide to make the trip right before conference season starts up.

Even though there teams will get time to recoup before the New Year starts, I still think it'll be interesting to follow all of the visitors (excluding the host Hawai'i) to see how they fare once their ‘second seasons' begin.

First (Round) Impressions

If the Great Alaska Shootout feels like a round of Bracket Busters, then the first four games of this tournament have the aura of day one of the NCAAs. Four teams that didn't need much introduction face off against four programs that might need more research and analysis to have a sense of where they are.

The pessimist glancing at this field of teams would point out that only one of them made the ultimate goal last year, and it wasn't Mississippi, Arizona, or Miami (that would have been San Diego State). The optimist would say that these programs could be riding momentum, with all eight squads finishing at .500 or above (the worst being 16-16 Hawaii). Can a mini-Cinderella steal the spotlight, or will one of the power names earn a victory luau?

Coaching Clinic

If the four well-known schools make it to the semifinals, it'll be fun to see what happens on the sidelines. The coaches of UA, Ole Miss, the U, and SDSU have forged their own postseason success. Steve Fisher tops them all with his National Championship while at Michigan. Jim Larranaga had his magical run to a Final Four with George Mason. Sean Miller has reached the Elite Eight twice (one at Arizona, one at Xavier). And while Andy Kennedy hasn't lifted the Rebels into the field of 68, he has led the program on two trips to Madison Square Garden (NIT semifinals). A semifinal quartet of Larranaga vs. Miller and Fisher vs. Kennedy would be quite interesting.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 5:30 PM | Comments (0)

October 17, 2012

On the Dark Slide

The question before the house: did St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday land a dirty hit deliberately upon San Francisco Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro with that rolling slide over the pad in the top of the first, taking Scutaro out of completing a double play attempt Monday night, making a play that is otherwise as time-honored in baseball as the 12-to-six curve ball, the intentional walk, and the brushback pitch?

1) Nobody including Holliday himself disputes it was a slide that began rather late, as these things do. But there is less than a firm consensus as to whether Holliday, who does not carry a reputation for cheap or dirty play otherwise, launched himself with malice aforethought.

If you were to ask Giants left fielder Hunter Pence, which is what reporters did after the Giants finished their Game 2, 7-1 triumph, there was so such evident malice. "You don't want to see Scutaro or anyone get hurt on a baseball field," he is quoted as saying. "You understand in the circumstance that you're going to take someone out. You're going to go hard ... In my opinion, it pumped us up a little bit. But these kinds of things ... you know Holliday. I don't think he's trying to hurt someone. He's playing the game hard. These things happen."

2) Scutaro himself, who happens to be one of the feel-better stories in baseball this season, a non-waiver trade deadline pickup for the Giants, who stepped in with much-needed clubhouse leadership in the immediate wake of the Melky Cabrera suspension, is not exactly one of the game's softer players. Indeed, he was able to stay in the game long enough to deliver the critical blow, slapping a two-out, two-run single to left field, in the bottom of the fourth inning, on which — call it karma if you wish — Holliday himself facilitated a third run on the play when he misplayed the ball.

3) Holliday himself acknowledges he began his slide a little late. By any viewing of the play, his slide started when he was just about atop the base. But he was clearly bruised on the inside by the sight of Scutaro in pain. On several occasions he expressed remorse over the play, starting with his next time at bat. "Tell Marco," he told Giants catcher Buster Posey, "I should have started my slide a step earlier. I hope he's OK. Obviously I wasn't trying to hurt him."

A genuinely dirty player would not express remorse almost as fast as the actual play occurred. "Things happen fast," he said at one point, as an explanation and not as a dismissal, a point taken up by Scutaro's eventual replacement, Ryan Theriot, a backup infielder with plenty of second base experience, whom Giants manager Bruce Bochy sent in Scutaro's stead when Scutaro — thus far diagnosed with hip strain, pending release of his MRI results; he's said to have flown with the Giants to St. Louis — said he could no longer move properly.

"It's playoff baseball," Theriot told reporters. "Guys are going out giving 150 percent. Yeah, it does happen. I mean, I've been crushed numerous times."

4) You can take what you will from the comments of both managers after the game. Said Bochy: "I really think they got away with an illegal slide there. That rule was changed a while back. And he really didn't hit dirt until he was past the bag. Marco was behind the bag and got smoked. It's a shame somebody got hurt because of this." Said Mike Matheny, the Cardinals' manager: "We teach our guys to go hard. Play the game clean, play it hard, not try and hurt anybody. And I hated to see that it ended up that way. That's not how we play the game. We do go hard, but within the rules."

5) Memory harks back to the 1973 National League Championship Series, Game 3, between the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets. In the top of the fifth, Hall of Famer Joe Morgan bounced to first base, where Mets first baseman John Milner threw on to second to start a double play. Pete Rose dropped into a slide as Mets shortstop Bud Harrelson caught the ball and threw back to first in his bid to double up Morgan, but Rose did precisely as he acknowledged he intended to do, blasting into Harrelson after Harrelson got the throw off.

Rose and the enraged Harrelson got into a fight at second base, emptying both benches and bullpens in a scene that turned ugly enough. When Rose took his position as the sides changed, enraged Met fans littered the field (you thought Atlanta Braves fans invented the protest a near fortnight ago?) and inspired Reds manager Sparky Anderson to pull his team back to the dugout. Mets manager Yogi Berra, pitcher Tom Seaver, and outfielder Willie Mays had to go out to the field to plea for peace. Leading 9-2 at the time, the Mets eventually won the game by that score, going forth to win the LCS.

6) Holliday did not appear to be trying anything other than taking Scutaro out of the double play while Scutaro still had the ball in his hands. Holliday's slide began as Scutaro turned to throw on to first base. He may have launched his slide late but he didn't try plowing Scutaro after he'd thrown on to first, the way Rose once upon a time plowed Harrelson well after the ball left Harrelson's throwing hand.

7) Much of the discussion in the wake of the play centers around payback, as in the Giants looking therefore. There will be some looking for, if not hoping for, the Giants going for a little payback when the series, now tied at a game each, resumes in St. Louis Wednesday. A brushback pitch or two, a harder slide than "necessary" here and there.

"If you've been watching Holliday play the outfield recently — he has poor hands and has more trouble tracking balls while on the run than any other major league outfielder — you understand he is a bull in a china shop when it comes to baseball aesthetics," writes Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci. "Holliday's explanation wasn't a cover story, and if you saw his pained look, you realized he understood with some regret all the trouble that his slide had caused. His admission that he wished he had slid earlier helped diffuse the situation.

"We'll see what happens," continues Verducci, customarily one of the most reasoning of baseball minds and observers. "Part of the macho code of the game is to 'protect your players,' so a retaliatory pitch at one of the St. Louis players is not out of the question. But let's be clear so we can move on: The slide was unacceptable, but Holliday took enough ownership of it and there was no indication he went in with malicious intent."

Said Rose to reporters after that 1973 LCS Game 3, "I'm no damn little girl out there. I'm supposed to give the fans their money's worth and try to bust up double plays — and shortstops." One strains arduously to believe fans who want to see heads-up, no-bull baseball (Whitey Herzog's phrase) are really trying to say they want to see heads off and body parts likewise redistributed. On slides that are, technically, takeout slides after the fact, which is precisely what Rose's slide was where Holliday's, for its error, wasn't.

8) You might care to note that the Giants and the Cardinals have been there before. In a July 1988 game, San Francisco first baseman Will Clark plowed and upended St. Louis shortstop (now third base coach) Jose Oquendo while trying likewise to break up a double play. That slide triggered a brawl not dissimilar to the 1973 Reds/Mets rumble, when it seemed as though the entire Cardinals infield wanted to pound Clark into hamburger.

"I slid a little bit before the bag," Clark, now a member of the Giants' front office, tells the San Jose Mercury-News. "We made contact over the bag. I was expecting Oquendo to jump across the bag and he did. And I got him. On this play (Holliday's), there was no attempt to slide into the bag. It was way past the bag ... It was clean because it was over the top of the bag. But it was also very, very late." The next Giant hitter, Mike Aldrete, ducked a brushback pitch. Clark himself ducked one later in that series.

9) Both sides might care to bear in mind that the Giants got their payback in the same game, and much to their benefit, when Holliday misplayed Scutaro's two-run single into that third run. You don't always have to take the matter into your own hands, particularly in light of Holliday making no attempt to shirk responsibility for the play.

"There's definitely baseball gods," Clark is quoted as saying. "There's a reason why he hits the (single) and Holliday boots the ball. Baseball gods shine."

Until and after the top of the first Monday night, and one notes the shame of the Holliday-Scutaro collision detracting from Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong's performance, this NLCS shines likewise. It would punish Holliday and the Cardinals, or acquit Scutaro and the Giants, not one degree, should the Giants decide those baseball gods, actual or reputed, simply did little enough that they require a helping hand or three in the innings to come.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:46 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 31

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski ran out of fuel while leading on lap 59 at Charlotte, and that miscalculation may have cost him the win. After a late stop for gas, Keseklowski emerged 16th and finished 11th. He now leads Jimmie Johnson in the point standings by 7.

"The Miller Lite Dodge was the hottest car in the Chase until Saturday," Keselowski said. "And we all know what happens with a cold Miller Lite — you get a 'coaster.'

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished third in the Bank of America 500 after fuel mileage concerns forced him to race conservatively. Still, Johnson cut into Brad Keselowski's points lead, and now trails by only seven.

"Keselowski led for 139 of 334 laps," Johnson said. "It was his race to lose, and he did. But I don't mind trailing in the point standings right now. I'm a five-time champion; Keselowski's got no titles to his name. That puts me 'second to none.'"

3. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin led 36 laps at Charlotte and finished third behind Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson, while Brad Keselowski finished 11th. Hamlin is now 15 behind points-leader Keselowski, and eight behind Johnson in second.

"The No. 11 FedEx Toyota was not made to conserve gas," Hamlin said, "so we have to savor every drop. It seems that my pregnant girlfriend isn't the only one carrying 'precious cargo.'"

4. Clint Bowyer — After a beneficial fuel gamble, Bowyer held off a charging Denny Hamlin to take the Bank of America 500, his third victory of the year. Bowyer is now fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 28 behind Brad Keselowski, and well within striking distance for the Cup.

"I proved I'm still a force in the Chase," Bowyer said. "But I realize I'm gonna need some luck as well. So I've got to ask myself, "Do you feel lucky, punk?'"

5. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished eighth at Charlotte, one lap down to the leaders. He is now fifth in the point standings, 35 out of first.

"It was weird not seeing Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in the No. 88 car," Kahne said. "I'm sure Junior was disappointed. But look on the bright side: he found another way to break a winless streak."

6. Greg Biffle: — Biffle started on the pole at Charlotte and led 71 laps before finishing fourth, his best finish of the Chase. He leaped three spots in the point standings to sixth, and is 43 out of first.

"Carl Edwards couldn't win with the points lead in last year's Chase," Biffle said. "Matt Kenseth is leaving Roush Fenway. And I couldn't win from the pole at Charlotte. It doesn't seem that anyone at Roush Fenway Racing can finish what they started."

7. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex posted his 17th top-10 finish of the year with a 10th at Charlotte. He is seventh in the Sprint Cup point standings, 49 out of first.

"I've got five races to make up 49 points," Truex said. "I'm guessing the five races beats the 49 points to the finish line. And that's one more win than I have this year."

8. Kyle Busch — Busch finished fifth at Charlotte, one of only six cars on the lead lap. It was his ninth top-five result of the year.

"I didn't qualify for the Chase For the Cup," Busch said, "so I, like about 8 of 12 Chasers to far behind to matter, am not eligible to win the title. It may be lonely at the top, but not at the bottom."

9. Tony Stewart — Stewart sustained front-end damage after an early re-start went awry. He recovered to finish 13th, one lap down, and now finds himself in a 50 point hole to points leader Brad Keselowski.

"If it's not someone going too fast behind me," Stewart said, "it's someone going too slow in front of me. Normally, I'm more prepared in crunch time."

10. Jeff Gordon — Gordon's day was ruined by a pit road speeding penalty that put him one lap down. He finished two laps down in 18th for his worst finish of the Chase. He trails Brad Keselowski by 50 points in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"That's a deficit from which I can't escape," Gordon said. "I was once married to a 'gold digger;' she, in turn, was married to a 'hole digger.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

October 16, 2012

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* In a world of fierce competition, Thom Brennaman is the worst NFL announcer on television. He parrots some basic conventional wisdom, with the occasional absurd inanity thrown in. It's like listening to the random drunk guy on the barstool next to you, if that guy was unbearably self-righteous and stated all his opinions as facts.

* Officials are calling too many pass interference penalties, on both sides of the ball. Let the men play. I'd also like to see defensive PI capped at 15 yards. It's not fair for games to turn on non-reviewable 50-yard penalties.

* I think Jeff Triplette is prejudiced ... in favor of other people named Jeff. His officiating crew includes umpire Jeff Rice, line judge Jeff Bergman, and side judge Jeff Lambert. That's 4 Jeffs, a Barry, a Phil, and — delightfully — an Al and a Steve.

* Calvin Johnson admits that he returned to the field after a concussion in Week 4. The NFL needs to step up its concussion monitoring. That should never happen. Ever.

* You know who's gotten way, way better as an analyst? Trent Dilfer. Even if he doesn't know what ebullient means. Self-deprecation suits him better than self-defense, as does being a bit further removed from his playing career.

***

Peyton Manning is the best comeback QB in the history of professional football. Monday night represented his 47th game-winning drive in the 4th quarter or overtime, tying Dan Marino for the most ever. But it's not just his quantity of comebacks that makes Manning special — it's the quality. Manning's résumé now includes:

* The largest comeback ever by a road team (24 points)
* The biggest comeback in Conference Championship Game history (18 points)
* One of the two 17-point comebacks in the last 5:00 of a game
* The other one
* Five straight wins after trailing in the fourth quarter
* A 15-point second-half comeback
* A 17-point fourth quarter to come back from 10 down
* The game when Bill Belichick was so scared of Manning that he went for it on 4th-and-2 from his own 28-yard line.

There are dozens more. But how many quarterbacks have more than two or three really memorable comebacks? If you're talking about comebacks that are memorable not just for fans of the team, but fans across the league, I'd argue that Peyton is the only one, ever. The 21-points-in-3-minutes MNF against the Bucs in '03, the AFC Championship against the Patriots, the 4th-and-2 game on Sunday night in '09, the biggest comeback in MNF history this week ... Manning has 47 fourth-quarter comebacks, and that's great, but what really distinguishes him is that those comebacks came in big games, against good teams, and from big deficits, not just 3 or 7 points down. I've believed for several years now that Manning is the greatest quarterback who ever lived, but even his critics should acknowledge that when we talk about comebacks, Peyton stands alone.

On to power rankings ... brackets show previous rank.

1. Atlanta Falcons [3] — Point of view No. 1: The Falcons have been lucky to win for three weeks in a row, and haven't looked really impressive in almost a month.

Point of view No. 2: The Falcons can win when Matt Ryan gets sacked 7 times, they can win when they only score 7 points in the first three quarters, and they can win when Ryan tosses 3 interceptions. Atlanta has made a lot of mistakes the past few weeks, things they probably couldn't get away with against better teams, but they've overcome them each time.

2. Houston Texans [1] — No one else is going to throw 6 TDs against them, but don't underestimate the loss of Brian Cushing. This isn't the same defense without him. Bryan Braman had a pretty great night on special teams, with a jarring solo tackle, an assist, and a blocked punt. Houston is favored by anywhere from 4½-7 points against Baltimore next week. I say the Texans win by double-digits.

3. Chicago Bears [6] — They rank 20th in yards per game, but they've scored five defensive TDs and are tied for 2nd in points per game. They topped 30 in three of their five games, and scored 41 twice. Chicago leads the NFL in point differential (+78).

4. San Francisco 49ers [2] — Maybe they got too caught up in their own hype. Maybe they spent the week looking forward to getting revenge for last year's NFC Championship Game, instead of staying focused on the preparation that would help them win. The Niners haven't played any division games yet, but all of their next three are against NFC West opponents.

5. New York Giants [13] — Exposed a secret formula for beating the 49ers: get an early lead, intercept Alex Smith three times, get David Akers to miss two field goals, and commit only two penalties all game. See? Simple.

The Giants were sensational in Weeks 3 and 6, embarrassing their opponents, but pretty blah the other four games. Even in the blowouts, though, they're not converting on red zone opportunities consistently. The Giants lead the NFL in field goals (17), but more importantly, they lead the NFL in field goals of under 40 yards. New York has 14, and no one else has more than 10. In tough games, you can't settle for three.

6. New England Patriots [4] — Lead the NFL in points, yards, and first downs. The Patriots actually have 59 first downs more than their opponents, by far the best mark in the league (49ers, +35). They out-gained the Seahawks by over 100 yards, but went 1/6 in the red zone. They kicked three short field goals, with one interception, and let the clock run out from Seattle's 3-yard line at the end of the first half. They lost by 1. One-point road losses against great home teams like the Ravens and Seahawks don't scare me, and New England is tied for the division lead; 3-3 or not, this is a very good team. The Patriots have lost three games by a combined four points.

7. Green Bay Packers [14] — Aaron Rodgers threw 6 touchdown passes, the most by any player since ... his backup, Matt Flynn, in Week 17 of last season. Active QBs with a 6-TD game: Rodgers, Flynn, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning twice each. Given their Week 6 breakout, it's obvious the Packers were being held back by Cedric Benson, Greg Jennings, and B.J. Raji. The Packers are the only team to beat the Texans, and the only team to beat the Bears.

8. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Haven't won by more than 7 since Week 1, and they rank 26th in total defense. No team has allowed more first downs this season than the Ravens (148). The Cowboys gained 30 first downs, held 40:03 time of possession, and rushed for 227 yards, the most ever allowed by the Ravens. In franchise history, the team has allowed 200 rushing yards just six times, but that includes each of the last two weeks. The secondary is a problem, too. Ed Reed doesn't look like himself, and their best cornerback, Lardarius Webb, will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury.

9. Seattle Seahawks [12] — Ranked behind two teams they've beaten at home (NE, GB), but ranked way ahead of two teams they lost to on the road (ARI, STL). The Seahawks are a totally different team at home. Well, maybe not totally: Marshawn Lynch has out-gained the opponent's leading rusher in every game.

10. Denver Broncos [11] — The Broncos have outscored their opponents 79-6 in the fourth quarter this season. The 6 came against Pittsburgh in Week 1. For the last 89 minutes of fourth quarter play, Denver hasn't allowed a point.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — I keep expecting them to get healthy, and it keeps not happening. Ben Roethlisberger is getting sacked at by far the lowest rate of his career (4.8%), and Pittsburgh leads the NFL in third down percentage (52%), but the defense is almost as bad (49% conversions allowed) as the offense is good, 31st in the NFL. The run game is just absent, averaging a league-worst 3.0 yards per carry. James Harrison didn't play like he's healthy, and Ike Taylor is getting killed at corner.

I'm prepared to give the Steelers a partial pass for this week's game, though, because this Thursday night game is screwing things up. Since NFL Network began airing Thursday games, the home team is 29-13 on Thursday nights. The road team has lost 11 of the past 12 Thursday night games. Games in the middle of the week just are not a true reflection of either team's power, and their impact on power rankings should be minimal.

12. Philadelphia Eagles [10] — There are obvious problems (turnovers), but they're 3-3, with wins over the Ravens and Giants. They lost to the Steelers by two in Pittsburgh, and to the Lions in overtime. They're 11th in offensive yards per game, and 31st in points per game. If Michael Vick can hold on to the ball and the defense can start generating a pass rush, this can be an elite team.

13. Minnesota Vikings [9] — Seven red zone possessions produced only two touchdowns, with four short field goals and an interception. Percy Harvin had a great game (11 rec, 133 yds), but they need to start throwing deep. Christian Ponder is tied with Blaine Gabbert for 31st in yards per completion (10.0). He ranks 30th in passes of 20+ yards, and he's the only full-time starter without a completion of 40+. Against a vulnerable pass defense like Washington's, he should have had a field day. Instead, the Vikings dinked and dunked into the red zone, stalled, and settled for field goals.

14. San Diego Chargers [15] — For about three years — I'm thinking 2008-10 — Philip Rivers was one of the very best QBs in the league, maybe even the best. Including sacks and rushing:

Tom Brady was hurt in '08, and no one else is really close. This isn't just about numbers; Rivers looked good. Fiery leader, big arm, throwing guys open and fitting the ball into tight spaces. Then last year, he played so badly that everyone thought he was hiding an injury. If so, he's still not recovered. Rivers is not having a good season, and he did not look good against the Broncos.

1st half: 11/17, 131 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0 sacks, 102.8 rating
2nd half: 14/24, 111 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT, 4 sacks, 30.4 rating

15. Dallas Cowboys [16] — The Cowboys have out-gained their opponents by 511 yards, 2nd-best in the NFL (49ers), but they've been outscored by 25 points, mostly because they're -8 in turnovers, tied for third-worst. They overcame a really horrendous chop block call on their final touchdown drive. This replacement officials thing has gone too far; the real refs never would have called that. It's time for the NFL to end the lockout and get qualified officials like Mike Carey back on the field.

16. Arizona Cardinals [8] — Most intriguing game of Week 7: The Pretender Bowl, Cardinals at Vikings. Both teams are 4-2, but it's hard to believe they're for real. Kevin Kolb, with his unreal sack percentage of 12.9%, finally got injured, and John Skelton finished this week's game with a passer rating of 6.2. Kolb's sack percentage is 38% higher than next-worst, Helpless Blaine Gabbert (9.3%).

17. Washington Redskins [20] — Great defensive game by special teams captain Lorenzo Alexander, who finished with 1.5 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and a fumble recovery. Washington is +9 in turnover differential. Five rookie QBs are starting this season, and all have played well at times, but Robert Griffin III is clearly the best right now. He has 6 rushing touchdowns and leads the NFL in completion percentage (70.2).

18. Miami Dolphins [19] — Out-gained 462-192. That doesn't include penalty yardage (+54) or net punting (+148), which makes it 469-401. Add Miami's +1 turnover advantage, and the Rams' five field goal attempts — only two successful — in lieu of touchdowns, and it's kind of surprising that Miami only won by 3.

Reggie Bush, first three weeks: 302 yds, 6.0 avg, 2 TD, 72 rec yds
Reggie Bush, past three weeks: 132 yds, 2.8 avg, 1 TD, 68 rec yds

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [21] — Ronde Barber scored on a 78-yard interception return. It's too bad he doesn't have a cool name like Champ Bailey.

Including fumbles, Barber has more takeaways, twice as many return yards, and three times as many touchdowns. Barber is also a better tackler and more disciplined in coverage than Bailey (he's been burned less). Ronde has had a far better career.

20. New York Jets [24] — Overcame devastating defensive penalties to win 35-9.

* Pass interference, 28 yards
* Roughing the passer, 1st down instead of 3rd
* Roughing the passer, nullified INT TD
* Pass interference, nullified INT TD
* Illegal contact, 1st down instead of 3rd
* Face mask, 15-yard penalty instead of 14-yard sack
* Pass interference, 20 yards, 1st down instead of 4th

Referee Bill Leavy is from San Jose, not Indianapolis.

21. New Orleans Saints [22] — Byes are helpful
Players get rest
When they come back
They can give it their best

22. St. Louis Rams [18] — Rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein (aka Greg the Leg, aka Legatron) finally came up short, going 2/5 in a three-point loss. Misses from 52 and 66 are understandable, but wide left from 37 isn't supposed to happen to a kicker with a nickname. The Rams are 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road.

23. Cincinnati Bengals [17] — Two straight losses, but in the next four weeks, they have three home games and a bye. The Bengals have the worst third-down percentage (27%) in the NFL.

24. Detroit Lions [23] — Jason Hanson kicked four field goals, including the game-winner in overtime. Hanson tied Jason Elam for most overtime field goals in history (9) and moved into third place on the NFL's all-time scoring list (2,074). He already led the NFL in career field goals of 50 yards or more.

25. Buffalo Bills [25] — I had them ranked too high last week, so they stay 25th despite a road win over a decent team. Mario Williams finally showed up (2 sacks).

26. Carolina Panthers [27] — Starting center Ryan Kalil was placed on injured reserve Wednesday. This team, already struggling, just lost its best offensive lineman.

27. Oakland Raiders [28] — Mike Goodson, who has 11 rush attempts, has as many 10-yard runs (2) as Darren McFadden, who has 59 rush attempts. Here's how McFadden's carries break down:

That's 16 carries for more than four yards, and 31 carries for less than three. Overall, McFadden is averaging 3.2 yards per attempt.

28. Tennessee Titans [30] — Worst in the NFL in point differential (-90) and first down differential (-46), but 31st in yardage differential (-647). They also rank 32nd in opponents' passer rating (107.9).

29. Indianapolis Colts [26] — Adam Vinatieri kicked his third 50-yard field goal of the season, a career-high. During his career in New England, Vinatieri kicked two 50-yarders in a season only once. As a Colt, he's done so three times.

30. Cleveland Browns [31] — Nice game from Joe Haden in his return from suspension: 6 solo tackles and 3 passes broken up, including an interception. Rookie RB Trent Richardson injured his ribs on Sunday and his status for Week 7 is unclear.

31. Kansas City Chiefs [29] — Lost by more than two touchdowns for the fourth time this season. They rank 31st in point differential (-79).

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — They've been outgained this year by 914 yards, 183 per game. That's the worst by 75 yds/gm (Titans, -108).

Need winning picks this weekend? Get $60 in FREE remember picks from Doc's Sports, a trusted name in handicapping since 1971.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:27 PM | Comments (0)

For Yankees, No Panic In Detroit (Just Yet)

After dropping two home games against the Tigers, the New York Yankees have come face-to-face with their postseason mortality as the ALCS now shifts to Detroit. They'll need two of three at Comerica Park to keep alive any hope for a 41st World Series appearance, a task made more daunting by the prospect of Justin Verlander lurking on the mound tonight. It's not surprising that conventional wisdom — along with most of their fan base — has them dead in the water.

We all have good cause for circling Yankee Elimination Day 2012 on our calendars. The Pinstripes are hitting just .192 in this series, including 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position. They've scored in only one of 21 frames, and even then it all came via the long ball. The far more expansive Comerica Park will turn those Stadium bombs that are the Yankees' lifeblood into routine fly balls.

For New York, the ALCS has thus far been an extension of an underperforming postseason in which they are hitting .205 with a .603 OPS. Robinson Cano is the outright owner of the longest single-postseason hitless streak in MLB history, A-Rod gets booed nightly, Nick Swisher is vilified in both field and batter's box, and team captain Derek Jeter has already been lost for the postseason.

So, does anyone hear the fat lady singing? Because I sure don't.

One day after watching Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos erase a 24-point deficit on the road, I'm not about to declare any contest over, much less one involving the Yankees, who've built a franchise on improbable comebacks. Witness that 4-run ninth against Tigers closer Jose Valverde on Sunday night that very nearly changed the entire complexion of this series. Over the years, the Yankees have tainted the careers of such bullpen luminaries as Mark Wohlers, Armando Benitez, Donne Wall, and Byung-Hyun Kim with late-game heroics, and now they've relegated the Tigers into closer-by-committee mode. You just don't go deep into October without a reliable closer.

Nor is their hole even the MLB equivalent of Manning's last night. The Yankees have climbed out of this mess twice in the past, losing the first two home games to Atlanta in the 1996 World Series and to Oakland in the 2011 ALDS before winning both series. Last week, the San Francisco Giants did it, too, perfecting their own comeback by winning three in a row in Cincinnati. These turnarounds all have one thing in common: win Game 3.

Easier said than done, given the Yankees' plight? Maybe. But Verlander is no automatic October win. In 10 postseason starts, he's 5-3 with a 4.19 ERA, giving up 4 or more earned runs on 4 occasions. Sure, he's had two good starts this postseason, but both have been against the A's, the Jekyll-turned-Hyde of MLB's perennial transition from regular season to playoffs.

And Yankee hitters have some big career numbers against him, notably Ichiro Suzuki (17-for-55), Alex Rodriguez (8-for-24 with 3 HR), and Eric Chavez (8-for-22). Manager Joe Girardi can get all this production into the lineup by slotting A-Rod at DH, thereby saving Raul Ibanez (3-for-29 with 5 strikeouts) for post-Verlander pinch-hitting. With 600 miles between him and the nightly catcalls in the Bronx, Rodriguez may even find the peace of mind to turn his October around this week.

There are 4 earned runs to be had from this Yankees lineup, even with their anemic bats to date. The question is, can Philip Hughes hold the Tigers to less? He's had awful numbers against Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta (combined 17-for-37 with 4 HR), but he's had great success with the rest of the order (7-for-49, 1 HR). And the book on Hughes is that he's much better pitching on the road than at home.

However, Hughes has been inconsistent from year to year and from start to start, and it remains to be seen whether he can shoulder the burden of what may be the most pivotal game of the series. Lose, and it's an 0-3 hole that even Peyton Manning couldn't get out of. Win, and the Yankees are only a C.C. Sabathia start away from pulling even and regaining home field advantage in a series in which they've been eulogized by pundit and fans alike.

It's often said that momentum in baseball goes only as far as the next day's starter, but if an ace of Verlander's stature should fall, the effect could ripple through the remainder of the collective rotation's psyche. Circle your calendars if you wish, but for me it's a bit too early to start making Yankee Elimination Day celebration plans just yet.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)

October 15, 2012

What a Load of BCS

What They Got Wrong

BCS ranked Florida Gators at No. 2

It's not that the Gators are a bad team, or even a mediocre team. It's just hard to imagine a team with an offense that disappears for stretches as often as this one does going to the championship game. While I know that probably isn't part of the algorithm used by the computers, the human voters should know this, and they still ranked Florida at No. 3 and No. 4 in separate polls.

In a game that has become increasingly and unfairly tipped in favor of the offensive units, I'd rather have a team that had a fighting chance at scoring 30 points against a mediocre defense — this team doesn't. That being said, I'd rank them at No. 8.

BCS ranked USC Trojans at No. 10

This one is a little less obvious, but nonetheless just as much of an oversight. They've lost only one game, on the road against a top-25 team, which makes them sound good enough, but it gets better. They've got a roster filled with almost entirely underclassmen, and the only remaining games on the schedule that should challenge them too much ( games against Oregon and Notre Dame) are both at home, where they're outscoring opponents by an average score of 39-16 so far this year.

They might not win both or either of those games, but if they do, and end the year with only one or two losses, people will be wondering why they were ranked so low. I'd rank them at No. 6.

What They Got Right

BCS ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 5

I've heard a few people rank them lower, and few more rank them higher, but in my opinion this is the perfect spot for the Fighting Irish. On the one hand, they've got an unbelievable defense that's giving up less than 9 points per game, but on the other hand, outside of two games against really bad defenses, they're scoring less than 20 points per game.

I know that makes it sound like I'm down on this team, but the way I look at is that as long as they keep scoring at least two touchdowns each week, they'll at least make every game interesting. I think they'll lose one by the end of the year, but that shouldn't bump them from the top five.

BCS ranked Florida State Seminoles at No. 14

There isn't a more enigmatic team than Florida State. A team outscoring opponents by 35 points per game should seem like a lock for the top 10. But when that team has done so against less than mediocre competition, and gone 1-1 while giving up more than twice as many points per game against quality opponents, a lower ranking is in order.

I see them losing at least one more game this year, and with a poor strength of schedule, two losses will be too many for serious consideration in the top 10.

What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments below.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 6:09 PM | Comments (0)

October 14, 2012

Capital Humblings For Bold Challengers

They spoke so often about postseason experience. Some averted their ears. After all, the inexperienced have overthrown the experienced every so often. But on Friday the very experienced St. Louis Cardinals and the very experienced New York Yankees gave their worthy, younger, upstart Beltway challengers enough experience in their five-game division series showdowns to bode well enough for the immediate and longer-range futures of each.

Right now, though, it stings for both the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles. And they're entitled to feel stung.

Unfortunately, the Yankees' humbling of an overeager club of young enough Orioles, on a night CC Sabathia actually might have been hittable against more experienced or at least less anxious hands, seemed almost a snooze, compared to the Cardinals' humbling of an equally overeager club of young Nationals who came close enough to bludgeoning them right into an earlier-than-desired winter.

The Orioles wanted it in the worst way possible yet couldn't pry more than a single digit out of the otherwise up and down Sabathia. The Nats wanted it even worse, and proved it against Adam Wainwright early enough and often enough. If anyone other than the Yankees might have wilted after the first dent, anyone other than the Cardinals might have wondered nothing but how much worse it could get before the Nats performed the victory dance and ran the champagne bath.

So the Cardinals lost one-man wrecking crew Albert Pujols, manager Tony La Russa, and pitching rabbi Dave Duncan, in favour of moving Allen Craig to first, hiring no-experience-known Mike Matheny, and mere Duncan disciple Derek Lilliquist? Big deal. They still hadn't forgotten to keep their shoulders shoving the doors back when it looked like the doors were about to finish slamming on them.

Perhaps the Nats hadn't paid all that much attention to Game 6 of last year's World Series, not to mention all the other elimination games these Cardinals have upended. If they didn't, the Cardinals were only too happy to conduct a makeup class at their expense, even if they had the Cardinals' tail feathers clipped 6-0 by the time the third inning ended.

Jayson Werth sat in the Nats' dugout when school let out, watching Nationals Park empty slowly of its broken hearts, looking for a few moments as if he couldn't decide whether to believe the lesson he'd just been taught. Just a couple of hours earlier, Werth himself had opened the carnage by ripping Wainwright's 1-1 curve ball down the right field line starting the bottom of the first, Bryce Harper tripled him home (to snap out of a 1-for-18/six K/one RBI division series funk), and Ryan Zimmerman homered Harper home.

And that was a mere day after Werth lit up the capital with his epic 13-pitch, bottom of the ninth, leadoff game-winning rip into the St. Louis bullpen to get the Nats here in the first place.

As Werth stared almost hypnotically to the emptying park from behind his soft, thick beard, an angry Nats fan bellowed audibly as a television camera continued shifting in front of the dugout. "Get ridda Storen!!! Y'never shudda had Storen!!!"

Drew Storen, the Nats' bold young closer, pitching for a third straight day. Surgery in April, back with the Nats in July, reclaiming his closing role in September. Shook Carlos Beltran's leadoff double off in the top of the ninth, after the Nats snuck home a should-have-been insurance run in their half of the eighth. Got Matt Holliday to bounce one to third, where barking-shouldered Ryan Zimmerman threw him out on an eephus across the infield. Really had Nationals Park's crowd making a racket when he fooled Craig into a swinging strikeout on a slider diving in a twist away from the low outside corner. Looked like he'd fight Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina off, after he didn't get the call on the edge of the outside corner. Foul back, low and away, Cardinals down to their final strike.

Ruh-roh. Low off the corner, first and third. And guess who's coming to dinner? Only David Freese, last year's League Championship Series and World Series MVPs, a man who proved then that he doesn't know the meaning of the last strike. Freese, who'd battered a last-strike Neftali Felix service off the right field wall past Nelson Cruz's reach to tie last year's Game 6. Freese, who'd thank his mates for re-tying that game on another last-strike uprising in the 10th by hitting the first pitch of the bottom of the 11th over the center field fence.

Friday night, though, Freese didn't have to go that far. All he had to do was wring Storen for a full-count walk, loading the pads for Cardinals second baseman Daniel Descalso. What the hey, these kind of Cardinals can afford to let lesser-likely men have their fun. Especially those who yank them to within a run of the Nats in the first place with leadoff launches into the right field bullpen, which is exactly what Descalso did in the top of the eighth. You think these guys are going to be fazed by coming down to five last-strike pitches in all?

All Descalso had to do now was hit a bullet somewhat up the middle, for which Nats shortstop Ian Desmond dove, looked like he'd get his glove on it, but lost it as the ball glanced off his web, allowing Beltran and Molina home with the re-tying runs. And all often-expressionless rookie Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma had to do from there was line a two-run single right behind his keystone partner.

That's not even close to what the Nats expected to deal with when Werth and Bryce Harper introduced them to the scoreboard in the bottom of the first, and Zimmerman followed at once with a blast two rows into the right field bleachers. Or, when Harper opened the bottom of the third hitting one about four rows further back in the same section, Zimmerman followed with a measly double off the right field wall, and, one out later, Michael Morse hit the first pitch he saw and the last Wainwright would throw on the night into the left field bullpen.

"I said to the infield, 'Pick me up'," Wainwright told a reporter after the game. "It's my bad out there, pick me up."

But they probably also didn't expect Gio Gonzalez, their 20-game winning Game 5 starter, to pitch as though he were trying to get 27 outs per pitch, overthrowing so often it may have been a matter of time before the Cardinals found ways to exploit it. "One of the tough pitchers in baseball, with a tough bullpen behind him," Wainwright himself would describe Gonzalez and the Nats' pitching staff afterward.

On the other hand, they might have thought they were being gifted by Nats manager Davey Johnson, when Johnson couldn't bring himself to lift an obviously shaky Gonzalez after he was pried for the first Cardinal run by Beltran (leadoff walk) and Holliday (RBI double into the left field corner).

Not so, though, when they proceeded to load the pads on Gonzalez with nobody out, after pinch hitter Shane Robinson turned a first pitch called strike into a four-more-pitch walk, sending Beltran home when the low curve bounced off Nats catcher Kurt Suzuki's chest protector, then shook off Kozma being thrown out at home with Craig wringing out the bases-loaded walk to send home the third Cardinal run.

And they probably didn't think it was all that much a matter of fate that they couldn't pry anything out of Nat relievers Craig Stammen and Sean Burnett in the sixth but could pry one out of Edwin Jackson, normally a starter, in the seventh, when Beltran doubled Jon Jay (leadoff walk) to third and Holliday snuck Jay home while grounding out wide of shortstop.

Jackson might have squirmed out of that with just a run on his jacket, and Tyler Clippard — one of the Nats' strikeout force late in Game Four, one of three Nat relievers who nailed eight straight outs by strikeout — may have survived Descalso's leadoff bomb in the eighth. But the Nats had reason enough to believe two bottom of the eighth-opening base hits, a forceout setting first and third, and Suzuki's two-out, line single up the middle, sending home Adam LaRoche (the leadoff single), equaled gilt-edged insurance.

Gilt you! the Cardinals probably thought, though they're far too polite to phrase it in terms like that. Up stepped Kozma, the almost expressionless rookie. He looked at a pair of called strikes, a ball high and away, and a ball low. Then, he lined a two-run single, the Cardinals had runs number eight and nine, and the Nats — who thought they'd gotten insurance on Cardinal closer Jason Motte's dime — got another whack at Motte.

All they could whack now was Werth's leadoff pop to shallow right. Harper stood in at the plate looking for all the world like he wanted to hit a solo grand slam on the first pitch he could handle now, and got himself a three-pitch pounding swishout for his anxiety. And Zimmerman, who likewise looked like he had murder in his heart and a solo salami in his brain, fouled off a pair of two-strike services before swinging for the Atlantic Ocean and getting just a pop out Descalso took happily enough on the rim of the outfield grass.

"We knew we had a lot of game left after they scored six," Descalso said when it was over. "Nobody went up there trying to hit a six-run homer. We needed to scratch and claw and get ourselves back in the game."

That's another powerful lesson these young, gifted Nats should be learning at once. Hadn't the Cardinals still left seven men on from the fourth through the seventh? Hadn't they entered the eighth 3-for-5 with men in scoring position? Alas, hadn't they pitched like they were trying to pound out every hitter in their ballpark and all other ballparks in the region and swung the bats like they were, indeed, trying for 6-run homers no matter how many bases were occupied?

That wasn't the staff that pitched so stoutly down the stretch after You Know Who's pre-planned shutdown. And don't make the mistake of assuming it might have been different if You Know Who had been able to pitch. I don't know that it might. And you don't know, either.

(Lesson number whatever: The Yankees benched Alex Rodriguez Friday night, because his slump mandated it — and won. The Nats had to shut You Know Who down, for his and their health to be, and had more than enough to go otherwise Friday — and helped beat themselves when they didn't have to.)

The Yankees already took away any shot at an all-Beltway World Series in the earlier evening. Like the Nats would do, the likewise young, hungering, anxious Orioles — who'd launched themselves into a surprising dogfight for the AL East and battered the Texas Rangers out of the wild card came — too often got eager enough that they couldn't hit a should-have-been hittable Sabathia with a vault door.

The best the Orioles got was Nate McLouth hitting a parabola down the right field line in the top of the sixth, which might have tied the game at one, except that the ball flew a hair's breadth past the wrong side of the foul pole. A Yankee Stadium usher reportedly told a TBS television reporter the ball grazed the pole, which would have meant home run, but no one could hear it in the middle of the stadium racket.

Nobody doubted Curtis Granderson, though, when the slender Yankee center fielder squared up Baltimore reliever Troy Patton with one out in the seventh and hit one into the right field seats.

Actually, McLouth's nearest of near misses was the second best the Orioles got. The best they got was a season in which they made Camden Yards a place to be proud of for more than just its splendid design, ambience, and amiability. You could actually go there now and enjoy the game on the field as well as the field and the park itself, for the first time in fifteen years and perhaps beyond.

You can do so at Nationals Park, too. And when you go to either or both parks next year, here's hoping you see a pair of teams right back in the thick of the races, approaching the stretch and the postseason each, if they're stout enough for return engagements, without falling into the overeagerness that cost them this time around.

They proved to the Yankees and the Cardinals that they were solid teams. They proved it to everyone else, too, except maybe one bellowing, disgruntled Nats fan behind and above Jayson Werth's head.

Now they have to prove they know all the elements of solidity. Including the right kind of patience and the right kind of hunger. They learned the hard way Friday night. With two managers as stable as Johnson and the Orioles' Buck Showalter normally are, don't bet too heavily against them.

"You have a bunch of young kids over there that just play the game the right way and play hard," said Yankee manager Joe Girardi about the Orioles his team had just pushed aside. "And you think about it, we played 23 games [against each other], and there were 4 runs that separated us. It's an accomplishment for both clubs because they never went away. People thought they were going to go away, they never went away."

Both clubs, but the Nats in particular, also learned how easy it is for baseball to take them between extremes, as often as not in the same game, as often as not in less than gentle journeys. If they can come back from this, they can come back from anything. They'll both have all of 2013 to prove it.

"They played good baseball," Beltran said graciously of the Nats afterward. "They really fought to win this one."

It's taken the Orioles a mere 15 years and three presidencies to return to postseason baseball, and the number one show on television 15 years ago was Seinfeld. The last time a Washington team played October baseball, television was radio, and the number one show in the country was The Eddie Cantor Show. It took Washington seventy-seven years and twelve presidencies to follow to return to the postseason.

It may take the Nats and the Orioles just one more year, and maybe (underline that, ladies and gentlemen) another presidency, to get back to the postseason. When you say it that way the sting eases a little bit. For now, it just plain stings for both. No matter how much there is for both to be proud of.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:57 PM | Comments (0)

October 12, 2012

A Case For Mike Trout to Win AL MVP

Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera have both had superb seasons, and perhaps the most spirited discussion in baseball right now involves which of them should win the American League's Most Valuable Player Award. The argument has split largely along the lines of sabermetricians (who mostly prefer Trout) and traditionalists (who mostly favor Cabrera). I'm here to make an argument for Trout that doesn't require any advanced statistics or weird acronyms like VORP and wOBA.

Let's start by acknowledging that they both had sensational seasons. Even in the sabermetric community, I don't think anyone's denying that Cabrera had a pretty special season. And you don't have to be a statistician to understand that Trout had a historic season. As a baseball fan, you have to appreciate both players. Personally, I feel Trout deserves the award, but I understand why some people lean towards Cabrera. Let's address some of the more common arguments for both players:

Cabrera plays for a playoff team, and Trout does not.

I'm sympathetic to this basic argument. It makes sense that the best player would play for a successful team, and that word "valuable" is just loaded in this direction. It's not a "Best Player" award or a "Player of the Year" honor — it is explicitly for the "Most Valuable" player in the American League. Some fans argue that the "value" clause actually excludes anyone whose team didn't make the playoffs, and that's going too far for me, but it's at least a factor that we should consider.

I don't believe this line of thinking should apply to this year's MVP race, however. Firstly because I view playoff participation as more of a tie-breaker for two closely matched candidates, and I believe Trout is clearly ahead. Second, Trout's team won more games (89-73) than Cabrera's (88-74). This argument basically says that Cabrera was more valuable because the White Sox went 4-11 down the stretch.

I might even argue that in a way, this point favors Trout, who played a harder schedule. The Tigers went 13-20 this season against the AL West. If Detroit played in the West and the Angels in the Central, this argument would support Trout instead. I'm not trying to play a "what if" game, but the whole idea of the "more valuable" argument revolves around playing for a winning team, and the Angels won more games than the Tigers — even though they played a tougher schedule. I just don't see how this point applies in Cabrera's favor.

Trout got on base in ways we don't notice.

It's 2012, and we all understand that batting average is an incomplete indicator of offensive performance. But it's still a hugely prominent stat, and many fans may not realize that Trout had a better on-base percentage (.399) than Cabrera (.393), despite tougher hitting conditions (pitcher's park, harder strength of schedule, fewer IBB).

Cabrera's batting average was slightly higher than Trout's, but Trout walked more often, both in absolute terms (67-66) and as a percentage of his plate appearances (10.5% - 9.5%). That difference becomes even larger if you consider intentional walks (17 for Cabrera, 4 for Trout). But Trout also added times on base through 6 HBP, and he reached first on a fielder's choice 24 times (compared to 6 GIDP). Cabrera got hit by 3 pitches and reached on fielder's choice 6 times (against 28 double plays). If you're focused on batting average, that's 22 hidden times on base for Trout: +1 BB, +3 HBP, +18 FC. Those numbers don't count in the Triple Crown, but they make a difference in the standings.

If you consider that fielder's choice puts a man on first, Trout's on-base advantage is about 35 points, .437 to .402. There's a big difference between two outs with no one on base, and one out with a man on first.

Cabrera won the Triple Crown.

Let's be honest: this is neat. I've never gotten to celebrate a batting Triple Crown before. Sure, I recognize that batting average, home runs, and runs batted in are three pretty random stats to throw together, not necessarily any more important than the imaginary triple crown of, say, on-base percentage, total bases, and runs scored. Or OPS, homers, and stolen bases, or any number of other combinations. But it's something we acknowledge, like hitting for the cycle or pitching a no-hitter. It's very hard to do, it indicates a terrific performance, and its rarity makes it special. If you don't get excited when a pitcher takes a perfect game into the fifth inning, or a hitter has a shot at the Triple Crown, you just don't like baseball.

Cabrera is the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. He is the only player in the last 45 years to lead his league in BA, HR, and RBI. On the other hand, Trout is the only player in the history of baseball with 30 HR, 45 SB, and 125 R. Cabrera did something very impressive, something that hadn't been done in a very long time. Trout did something very impressive, something that hadn't ever been done before.

I'm not trying to diminish the Triple Crown, or the excitement of watching whether Cabrera would hit that 44th homer and hold on to the top batting average. But we can all understand that Trout's accomplishment is actually more impressive in its own way, an unprecedented feat.

Trout's speed was just as valuable as Cabrera's power.

In 2012, Miguel Cabrera hit 40 doubles and 44 home runs, giving him 172 extra bases. He also stole 4 bases, bringing him to 176. Mike Trout hit 27 doubles, 8 triples, and 30 home runs, a total of 133 extra bases. He also stole 49 bases, bringing him to 182, six more than Cabrera.

There's more. Trout went first-to-third on a single 28 times, twice as often as Cabrera (14). Trout scored from second on a single 20 times, Cabrera 14. In fact, Trout took an extra base 65% of the time, compared to 44% for Cabrera, and altogether, Trout's base-running advantage (not counting SB) comes to 23 bases. Actually, it might be more, because I think Trout actually scored on a couple of plays where I only credited him going first-to-third. In any case, Cabrera scored 28% of the times he reached base, compared to 44% for Trout. Add Trout's base-running advantage to the tally in the paragraph above, and he's ahead by 29 bases.

Furthermore, Cabrera grounded into 28 double plays, most in the majors, while Trout hit into just 7. That's another 21 bases in Trout's favor. It's not apparent to me that Cabrera was the more valuable offensive player.

Altogether, Cabrera reached base 274 times, with extra-base hits and aggressive base-running accounting for an additional 208 bases advanced. Trout reached 255 times, with an additional 237 bases advanced. Cabrera made 491 outs, compared to 420 for Trout. Those outs include caught stealing, pick-offs, outs on base, and double plays. I added fielder's choice to the TOB totals in the chart below, but the outs on those plays still count in the final column.

Cabrera's ahead by 1 time on base, but behind by 71 outs and 29 bases advanced. He's the better offensive player only if you disregard base-running.

Cabrera led the majors in RBI. He's clutch.

Not only did Cabrera lead the AL in RBI (139), he led by a lot. Josh Hamilton was next (128), and no one else had over 110. Trout finished the season with just 83 RBI. Cabrera delivered in key situations, when a good play was most valuable. That's exactly what an MVP award is supposed to recognize.

The issue is that RBI are a function of runners on base. Cabrera batted third, and Trout led off. This season, Cabrera came to bat with a total of 444 runners on base, compared to just 306 for Trout. That's almost 50% more RBI opportunities for Cabrera. Of those 444 runners on base for Cabrera, 98 eventually scored (22%), though not necessarily on a Cabrera RBI. Trout came to the plate with just 306 runners on, and 55 of them eventually scored (18%). Cabrera's figure is better, but both are above the league average of 15%.

The other side of the coin is that RBI opportunities are often double play opportunities, as well. 146 times this season, Cabrera came to bat with a runner on first and less than two outs. He grounded into a double play 28 times, most in the majors. More significant for our "clutch" argument, that means he GIDPed a stunning 19% of the time it was possible. Trout, in contrast, hit into 7 DPs in 87 opportunities, just 8% of the time.

I promised no saber stats or weird acronyms, but win probability shows clearly that Trout was more valuable with runners on than Cabrera was. Miggy has those multi-run homers we all remember, with the RBI to prove them. But Trout's speed helped him avoid rally-killing double plays. Those don't impress themselves on our memories the way going yard does, but they make a big difference to the team, and Cabrera's 28 GIDP and 19% rate don't support the idea that he's a nonpareil clutch performer.

Cabrera saved his best stuff for September.

We're doing two in a row for Cabrera, because this is also a "clutch" argument. Cabrera was a monster in September and October, when the Tigers went 18-13 and passed Chicago for control of the AL Central. He batted .333 / .395 / .675, with 11 HR and 30 RBI. That's sensational, and I have no intention of claiming otherwise. Cabrera was a huge reason Detroit made the playoffs.

Of course, Trout didn't exactly choke at the end of the season. In September and October, he hit .289 / .400 / .500, with 5 HR and 7 SB. It's not the offensive equal of Cabrera's last month, but it's still awfully good. We rightly value end-of-season performance, but they all count the same in the standings, and if Cabrera had played in May like he did in September, and in September like he did in May, the Tigers probably still would have made the postseason. Actually, looking at the whole season, Trout, who wasn't called up until April 28, has been better on a per-game basis. Here's Trout's 161-game pace (the same as Cabrera):

149 R, 211 H, 75 XBH, 35 HR, 96 RBI, 57 SB, 78 BB, 365 TB, 8 GIDP

And here are Cabrera's 161-game totals:

109 R, 205 H, 84 XBH, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 4 SB, 66 BB, 377 TB, 28 GIDP

The only significant differences are RBI and GIDP, which are both a function of runners on base, plus stolen bases (+53 for Trout) and runs (+40 for Trout). Again, I'm not trying to argue for Trout based on a "what if" scenario; Cabrera played in 22 more games, and he deserves credit for what he accomplished in them. But their end-of-season counting stats were comparable — remember Trout's base-running — and Trout made more difference in the games he played. The Angels started 6-14 and dropped five straight before Trout joined the club. They went 83-59 with Trout, about double their previous winning percentage. I'd call that valuable. He kept them in the playoff race until the last couple weeks, basically saved their season.

Trout plays in a pitcher's park.

Comerica Park in Detroit is a pretty average park for hitters, whereas Angel Stadium of Anaheim — I hate that unwieldy name — is decidedly a pitcher's park. ESPN reports that the Tigers and their opponents scored 7.1% more runs than average when they played in Detroit, while the Angels and their opponents scored 18.8% fewer runs at the Big A. It's a lot harder to generate offensive production in Anaheim.

Comerica is not late-90s Coors Field, but park effects are an important consideration of each player's value. Trout actually hit a little better on the road (.332/.407/.544) than Cabrera (.327/.384/.529); he's ahead in average, OBP, and slugging.

If Cabrera played in Anaheim, and Trout in Detroit, Miggy probably wouldn't have won the Triple Crown. Trout's numbers signify more production in Anaheim than the same stats would have in Detroit (where they're easier to produce), and Cabrera's were slightly less valuable because opponents enjoyed the same park advantages he did.

Trout struck out too much.

Strikeouts are bad, and Trout struck out a lot more (139 times) than Cabrera (98). But there's seldom much difference between a strikeout and an out on a ball in play. Not to beat this into the ground, but Cabrera hit into 28 double plays; he actually would have been more valuable to the Tigers if all his outs were strikeouts. The Elias Sports Bureau keeps a stat called productive outs: advancing a runner with none out or driving in a run while making the second out of the inning. Cabrera had 23 productive outs in 2012, compared to 28 GIDP. Trout was credited with 13 productive outs and 7 GIDP.

Cabrera had more men on base for his at-bats, and those 23 productive outs mean he converted on 35% of his opportunities, compared to 31% for Trout, basically a difference of 1 base. What about just putting the ball into play, generating the possibility of an error? Trout reached base on an error 7 times in 2012, compared to 4 for Cabrera. The strikeouts simply aren't a big deal.

The elephant in the room: defense.

Everyone agrees that Mike Trout is a very good center fielder. He looks great, makes all the highlight shows, passes the eye test. He also passes the stats test; advanced defensive metrics rate him as one of the best outfielders in baseball. He has shown great range and will likely win a Gold Glove at one of the most important defensive positions in baseball. Trout's four home run robberies lead the majors.

Everyone agrees that Miguel Cabrera is a subpar third baseman. He's not a disaster, and third base is a challenging defensive position. But Cabrera is a below-average fielder, and third base is not center field. His fielding percentage (.966) actually was better than league average (.952), but his range and play-making were well below average.

If two players are of equal offensive value, but one is an average center fielder, and the other is an average third baseman, the CF is the more valuable player. If both are of equal offensive value, but one is a terrific center fielder, and the other is a poor third baseman, the CF is a significantly more valuable player. If you buy into sabermetric defensive analysis, the difference is probably worth about a dozen home runs. Given Trout's four robberies and many other fine defensive plays, combined with Cabrera's lackluster fielding, that strikes me as a conservative but reasonable estimate.

To keep Cabrera ahead of Trout, you probably have to agree with most or all of the following points:

* Effective base-running is not valuable.
* Fielding excellence is not valuable.
* Comerica Park and Angel Stadium are equally hitter-friendly.
* Driving in runs matters. Grounding into double plays does not.
* The MVP Award should primarily honor late-season performance, not a player's full body of work.

If you disagree with any of those, but still support Cabrera, I suppose you're a Tigers fan. Good luck against the A's. Otherwise, you'd have to be totally caught up on the playoff thing, but I don't see how you can apply that to this situation. Trout pretty clearly helped his team more, and in fact his team did win more games than Cabrera's.

Miguel Cabrera had a fantastic season. I didn't know if I'd ever see a Triple Crown winner. I'll be shocked if he doesn't win the AL MVP Award, and I'll be surprised if it's close. But Mike Trout had a historic year, even if you discount his being a rookie. As great as Cabrera was, Trout was even better, and he was the most valuable player in the American League.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:52 PM | Comments (0)

Murray's Finest Hour

The U.S. Open final of 2008 was something to behold. It was a masterclass in how to completely outplay your opponent, from start to finish, not giving them the luxury of half a chance the entire match. Roger Federer hardly broke sweat as he raced to the 13th grand slam title of his career, bringing him within one title of Pete Sampras' impressive record of 14.

Andy Murray, on the other hand, was left bewildered. Completely out of his depth for the entire match, it was obvious he needed to re-evaluate his career, where it was headed, and how on earth he was going to win a slam.

Up to this point, he had looked a promising player, tipped by many to be Britain's first male grand slam winner in 72 years. The way he disposed of Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals the day before was nothing short of spectacular. Sure, it was a 4 setter, but Nadal was running hot — straight off the back of winning a fourth French Open title and his first Wimbledon.

However, it had always been said that almost all multiple grand slam winners win their first by the time they are 21, and many do so earlier. Federer won Wimbledon at 21, Nadal won the French Open at 19, and Novak Djokovic took the Australian Open crown at age 20. Murray was already 21 by the time of the 2008 U.S. Open, and so whilst it was encouraging, people were hoping he could have gone one step further.

He went into the 2009 as hot favorite for the title, having won the prestigious Capitala World Tennis Championship, an invitational event in Abu Dhabi, where only 6 of the top 10 players in the world are elected to play. This would be Murray's final major before turning 22, so hopes were high.

He made a brilliant start, only to falter when faced with Spaniard Fernando Verdasco. At the time, it was a huge shock: the favorite had been knocked out in the fourth round. However, it was only realized a week later when Verdasco turned out to be arguably the player of the tournament, taking world No. 1 Rafael Nadal to five sets at the semifinal stage before bowing out. If anyone ever had a breakout year, 2009 was to be Verdasco's.

Either way, this did little do dissuade the feeling that Murray should have done more. The French Open, too, came and went with Murray having had very little impact, and when Murray failed to get past Roddick in the 2009 semifinals of Wimbledon, people began asking a few questions.

Surely that was Murray's best chance of reaching the Wimbledon final? Rafael Nadal injured, and so therefore no-one blocking Murray's path to the final. Roddick played a blinder, possibly the best tournament of his career, but Murray, who had a brilliant head-to-head record against the American should have done better, throwing away opportunity after opportunity on the American's serve.

Where was the hope now? He crashed out early in the 2009 U.S. Open, and despite playing brilliantly in the year end tournament in London, crashed out to eventual champion Nikolay Davydenko. 2010 brought fresh hope, the Aussie Open final, with him losing in straight sets to Federer again, and coming up short to Nadal in the Wimbledon semifinal.

Again the U.S. Open — said to be his best chance of winning a major — came and went with an early exit. Why did he keep going on about winning the U.S. Open? It clearly wasn't his best surface.

2011 saw a dramatic change in Murray's career. Much of it was spent without a full-time coach, and things appeared to be going well. Australian Open final for the second year in a row, French Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open semifinals. If that wasn't progress, what was?

But still going the final step proved elusive. This was the point where Murray hired Ivan Llendl as full-time coach. No one had lost more grand slam finals and still gone on to win a major, so it seemed the perfect match. Murray's taciturn nature mirrored Lendl to a "T," and Murray would have a coach whose personal experience he could draw on.

2012 got off to a roaring start. Murray was stepping up to the baseline, hitting aggressively, and taking the fight to his opponent, rather than withdrawing into himself and reverting to the passive counter-punching which comes so naturally to him.

He cruised to the title in Brisbane, Australia, and cruised to the semifinals of the Australian Open. He lost out in a marathon battle to Novak Djokovic. Another point here or there could have completely turned the match around. After the match, Murray said that in spite of the loss, he had closed the gap between the world No. 4 and the world No. 1.

How times have changed. This time in the marathon match, it was Murray who proved the stronger both mentally and physically, outlasting the same opponent, but this time in the final of a grand slam.

The maiden major has not quite sunk in yet for some, but at least in Dunblane, where Murray was born and raised, euphoria is rife. It is not every day, nor every decade, that a British man wins a grand slam singles title, and so when it does happen, it is a very special event, and one that will not be forgotten in a hurry.

There have been a lot of dark, cold, and bitter moments in Andy Murray's career, but that moment, as Djokovic fired a forehand return beyond the baseline is surely, and will surely be, his finest.

Posted by Angus Saul at 3:04 PM | Comments (0)

October 11, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 6

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (+4½)

The Steelers edged the Eagles 16-14 last week, winning on Sean Suisham's 34-yard field goal as time expired. Pittsburgh is now 2-2, but may be without Troy Polamalu on Thursday in Tennessee, after re-aggravating his calf injury.

"That is one temperamental calf," Mike Tomlin said. "It gets aggravated so easily. Obviously, Troy won't play Thursday, because he can't play on one leg. But I expect the 'Samoan Kickstand' to heel fast.

"Our goal is to contain Chris Johnson. He's off to a slow start, but he could break one at any point. And by break 'one,' I mean a one-yard run."

The Titans dropped to 1-4 after last Sunday's 30-7 loss in Minnesota. Johnson continues to struggle, and the Tennessee passing game has suffered as a result.

"This team is eager to win," Mike Munchak said. "No one's been this hungry in Tennessee since LenDale White formed the larger half of the 'Smash and Dash' duo. I guess 2,000's out of the question for Chris. Maybe he should set his sights on 1,000. It appears Chris gives the term 'running back' its most literal meaning."

To compound the Titans offensive issues, the NFL is investigating a bounty scandal on the defense. It's a relative certainty that players aren't involved in a bounty program; it's an absolute certainty that, if they were, none of them would have collected.

Pittsburgh wins, 27-20.

Dallas @ Baltimore (-4½)

The Cowboys have had two weeks to contemplate their miserable 34-18 loss to the Bears, and now face the unenviable task of a road game in Baltimore, where the Ravens have won 13 straight.

"Joe Theismann said I wasn't very good" Romo said. "That's Joe. He gets paid to criticize people. He's cracked on other players before, like Lawrence Taylor.

"Criticism doesn't bother me. I thrive on it. As such, I'm thriving. I'm thick-skinned, much like Jerry Jones before his facelift. He's like a football — leathery, and can't stay off the field. Jerry's quite fond of facelifts. He gives the team one every three years."

With their offense struggling, the Ravens' defense carried the load last week in Kansas City, where Baltimore won a 9-6 defensive struggle. The Cowboys will certainly present more of a challenge, and Romo is eager to erase the memory of his five interception day against the Bears.

"That game is in the past for Romo," Ray Lewis said. "You have to have a short memory, especially when every other game is forgettable.

"We just have to come out and play our game. We're still trying to figure out exactly what that is, a 41-38 shootout, or a 10-9 slugfest. Make no mistake, though, this is Joe Flacco's team. Joe's a lot like Trent Dilfer in that he makes few mistakes and doesn't try to do too much. Flacco also reminds me of Dilfer because Joe can't win a Super Bowl without the 2000 Ravens' defense."

The extra week's rest does the Cowboys some good, and extra work in the film room uncovers weaknesses in the Ravens' line that DeMarcus Ware exploits for two sacks and a forced fumble. Romo throws for 2 scores and the Cowboys silence their critics until their next loss a week down the road.

Dallas wins, 24-21.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (+3)

The Browns are the NFL's last winless team, standing at 0-5 in the AFC North. They'll try to get in the win column when the 3-2 Bengals visit the Dawg Pound.

"Brandon Weeden's career is off to a rough start," said Pat Shurmur. "You could say the 'Brandon Weeden era' is as auspicious as the 'Brandon Weeden ERA.' But he's resilient. He's been 0-5 before. In another job in which throwing was imperative."

Cincinnati is coming off a tough 17-13 loss to Miami at Paul Brown Stadium, as three turnovers eventually did in the Bengals. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will face a Browns' defense that gave up 502 total yards to the Giants last week.

"I should have a field day against the Browns' secondary," Green said. "Coverage certainly is not their bread and butter. That's great, because I like my toast 'Brown-ed.'"

Cincinnati wins, 30-21.

St. Louis @ Miami (-2½)

The Dolphins ended a streak of two straight overtime losses with a 17-13 win over the Bengals. Miami is 2-3 in the AFC East, only one game behind the division-leading Patriots.

"No one expected us to be here," Joe Philbin said. "Not with a rookie coach, a rookie quarterback, and Dan Carpenter. Luckily, Carpenter's missed field goal didn't cost us the game. He may be a 'Carpenter,' but one thing he can't build is a lead.

"But there hasn't been a buzz like this in South Beach since the Heat won a scrimmage against the Golden State Warriors in October of last year."

The Rams knocked off the previously unbeaten Cardinals 17-3 last Thursday, paced by a defense that sacked Kevin Kolb 9 times. The Dolphins fell to Arizona 24-21 in overtime in Week 4.

"We're 3-2," Jeff Fisher said. "This is the first time the Rams' record and Sam Bradford's completion percentage have simultaneously been over .500."

The Miami defense comes up big, with four turnovers, and Carpenter nails all three of his extra point attempts.

Miami wins, 21-13.

Indianapolis @ NY Jets (-2)

Andrew Luck won his personal battle with Aaron Rodgers, as the Colts outgunned the visiting Packers 30-27 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indy is 2-2, and in sole possession of second place in the AFC South.

"I feel like I played up to the standards set by Peyton Manning," Luck said. "Rodgers fell at the mercy of replacement officials in Seattle; now, he can say the same about a replacement quarterback.

"In MetLife Stadium, my task is to outplay whomever the Jets' play at quarterback. I think I could do that handcuffed, which is what Rex Ryan must feel when choosing a starter."

The Jets tested the undefeated Texans before dropping a 23-17 decision in MetLife Stadium on Monday night. Mark Sanchez struggled after throwing an early touchdown pass, and finished 14-31 for 230 yards with one TD and 2 interceptions.

"That's was what they call a 'moral' victory," Ryan said. "Guess what? As is usually the case, there's an 'L' in 'moral.'

"Sanchez is still my quarterback. The time is not right for Tim Tebow. That would be premature. Before Tebow can become my quarterback, he has to become a quarterback."

Jets win, 23-20.

Oakland @ Atlanta (-7½)

After a 24-17 win in Washington, the Falcons are 5-0 and well ahead in the NFC South. Matt Ryan threw for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Falcons knocked Robert Griffin III out of the game in the second quarter.

"RG3," Mike Smith said, "meet 'TK0.' Griffin has a great career ahead of him, and will probably be the NFL's best quarterback one day. Until that time comes, we'll just consider this his first official 'crowning.'

"We're pleased with the win. The last time we played an NFC East opponent on the road, in chilly weather, and one team scored 24 points, we didn't win."

The Raiders are 1-3 and are averaging a paltry 17 points per game while giving up 31 per game. Rested after a bye week, head coach Dennis Allen knows the Raiders will have their hands full with the Falcons' offense, who average 30 points per game

"A successful turnaround falls on my narrow shoulders," Allen said. "Some say I don't have it in me. Some say I look to nerdy to be an NFL coach. Some call me 'Dweeb Ewbank.'"

The Raiders put up a fight, and Darren McFadden keeps them in it. But the Falcons' aerial game decides the outcome, as Ryan tosses 3 touchdown passes.

Atlanta wins, 34-28.

Detroit @ Philadelphia (-5)

Turnovers again spelled doom for the Eagles, as two Michael Vick fumbles contributed heavily to Philly's 16-14 loss in Pittsburgh last week. Vick leads the NFC in turnovers with 11, and ball security will be a major factor against a Detroit defense that needs to create turnovers.

"Vick's issues are certainly correctable," Andy Reid said, "so we're sending him to a 'correctional facility.' There, he'll need to work on two things: tightening his grip, and tightening his jock strap, because ball security is imperative.

"It would be hasty to bench Vick. He gives us the best chance to win; however, he gives us a better chance to lose."

The 1-3 Lions are perilously close to falling too far behind in what has become a competitive NFC North division, made even tougher by the emergence of the Vikings. A loss at Lincoln Financial Field would drop the Lions to 1-4 and a likely four-game hole in the division.

"It's like Ndamukong Suh says," Jim Schwartz said. "We've got to 'step' on it. Otherwise, we'll be left in the dust.

"An anonymous league general manager called us 'overrated.' I resent that. This team believes in itself with conviction. When we play with passion, we mean it, because we love ourselves."

The Lions play with reckless abandon, blitzing Vick mercilessly and going for the home run pass time and time again. Jason Hanson's late field goal gives the Lions the huge win.

Detroit wins, 25-22.

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay (-3)

It's Sunday's "Game of the Weak," as the 1-4 Chiefs travel to Tampa to face the 1-3 Buccaneers. Matt Cassel threw 2 interceptions and lost a fumble before leaving the game with a head injury in the fourth quarter in a game the Chiefs eventually lost 9-6 to the Ravens.

"The Ravens were a lot like our disgruntled fans," Romeo Crenel said. "They both 'tee'd off' on Cassel.

"Cassel was suffering blurred vision and disorientation. And that was before he got hit. But I think it's time for a change, which means Brady Quinn will get the nod. Quinn played at Notre Dame with Jesus watching over him. Apparently, Quinn is not on Twitter, because Jesus didn't 'follow' him to the pros."

The Bucs spent their bye week trying to correct the problems that have contributed to their 1-3 start, such as a sputtering offense and inconsistent play from Josh Freeman.

"Josh lost 20 pounds during the offseason," Greg Schiano said. "Now, he's a leaner and lighter version of a mediocre quarterback.

"I like our matchup against Quinn. Playing 'BQ' is like a visit to 'DQ' — there's 'soft' serve."

Tampa wins, 20-14.

Buffalo @ Arizona (-3½)

The Cardinals' unbeaten record came to a crashing end in a 17-3 loss in St. Louis last Thursday night. Arizona's offensive line play has been atrocious, giving up 17 sacks in the last two weeks. Kevin Kolb has been sacked a league-worst 22 times this year.

"Our line is not giving Kolb time to pass," Ken Whisenhunt said. "On the plus side, they're giving him plenty of time to run. Unfortunately, it's for his life."

The Bills face an NFC West opponent for the second week in a row. Last week, Buffalo was smashed 45-3 in San Francisco, and is surrendering over 30 points per game, including 97 in their last two games.

"We've lost by an average of 33 points in the last two weeks," said Chan Gailey. "Indeed, it's time to circle the wagons, because they're the only thing that's 'covered' anything lately.

"Amazingly, we're only a game out of first in the AFC East. We strive to be the Patriots. Not because they lead the division, but because they can win with a terrible defense."

The Cards' offensive line impresses, not because they're good, but because they're playing the Bills. Kolb has time, and finds Larry Fitzgerald 10 times for 138 yards and 2 scores.

Arizona wins, 31-24.

New England @ Seattle (+3)

The Patriots jumped on the Broncos early, and repelled Denver's comeback attempts in a 31-21 win last week. New England leads the AFC West with a 3-2 record.

"We know it will be tough at CenturyLink Stadium," Tom Brady said. "It's called 'CenturyLink' because the Seattle offense has set the game back 100 years.

"Seattle's home crowd may be the loudest in the NFL. But answer me this: does the '12th Man' refer to the fans or the officials?"

The Seahawks nipped the Panthers 16-12 in Charlotte last week, winning another defensive struggle after cam Newton's fourth-down pass in the end zone fell short. The Seahawks have scored more than 16 points in only one game this year, and will likely need more against the visiting Patriots.

"Who short arms a 12-yard pass?" Pete Carroll said. "Newton can't be Superman; Superman wears a cape, not a skirt.

"Russell Wilson is averaging only 6.52 yards per passing attempt. That's 29th in the league. We have to improve our downfield passing attack. I hate to say this to a 5'10" quarterback, but Russell, 'You've got to get vertical.'"

Which was the more awful officiating call, the Seattle "Hail Mary" against the Packers, or the "Tuck Rule?" Like much of America, Charles Woodson is undecided.

It's "Beauty and the Beast," as Tom Terrific leads the Pats over the 'Hawks and Marshawn Lynch. Brady's three passing scores top Lynch's 167 yards and 2 scores, and the Patriots win, 24-19.

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3)

Revenge will be the 49ers' motivation when the Giants visit Candlestick Park on Sunday. In last year's NFC title game, the Giants came to San Francisco and left with a 23-20 overtime win.

"That loss was like a hemorrhoid," Jim Harbaugh said. "It didn't sit well with us. And speaking of irritable assholes, Tom Coughlin should have the G-Men well prepared."

The Giants dug an early 14-0 hole last week to the Browns, but dominated thereafter to take a 41-27 win. New York, 3-2, is tied for first in the NFC East with the Eagles.

"Unfortunately," Tom Coughlin said, "that's a nasty habit we've developed. Sadly, the Giants are known for either digging holes for themselves, or shooting holes in themselves."

Last time, the 49ers did the shooting, blasting a hole right in their foot. This time, San Fran limits their errors, and forces a few New York mistakes.

49ers take an emotional 26-20 win.

Minnesota @ Washington (-2½)

The Redskins lost Robert Griffin III to a concussion in last week's 24-17 loss to the Falcons. Griffin was cleared to practice and should start on Sunday.

"Robert will be fine, I think," Mike Shanahan said. "He went from seeing flying colors to passing his concussion test with flying colors. Luckily, he's not missing a start. So, in actuality, he didn't get knocked into next week."

The Vikings are 4-1 and tied atop the NFC South after last week's 30-7 win over the Titans. Percy Harvin scored 2 touchdowns, and the Vikes' seventh-ranked defense stifled the Titans' advances.

"Christian Ponder threw 2 interceptions last week," Leslie Frazier said. "Those were his first two of the year. Hopefully, that won't be a harbinger of more mistakes to come. Unlike a former Vikings quarterback, we hope Christian doesn't 'peter out.'"

Vikings win, 27-19.

Green Bay @ Houston (-2½)

What's wrong with the Packers? Green Bay is 2-3 after blowing a late lead in a 30-27 loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts in Indianapolis. The Packers gave up 464 yards of total offense, and Aaron Rodgers 3 passing touchdowns weren't enough.

"We've gone from the 'What The Hell? Mary' in Seattle," Rodgers said, "to simply 'What the Hell?'

"We can't blame everything on our defense. Our offensive line is guilty of underperforming, as well. If they deserve anything, it's blame. I've been sacked 21 times this year, second-worst in the league. I try to stay positive and tell our lineman we have the league's second-best ground game."

The Texans remained undefeated with a 23-17 win over the Jets at MetLife Stadium last Monday night. Houston's J.J. Watt, the NFL leader in sacks, will give the Packers' much-maligned offensive line a stern test.

"Not only do I lead the league in sacks," Watt said, "I also lead in passes knocked down. You've got to 'hand' it to me, that's pretty impressive. By the way, 'Mitt' Romney approves this message."

Rodgers has taken much of the blame for the Packers' woes. That's his way of telling the rest of the team that they suck.

Green Bay bounces back, and wins 34-31.

Denver @ San Diego (-3)

The Broncos look for their first road win of the year in a vital AFC West contest in San Diego. Denver is 2-3 after last week's 31-21 loss in Foxborough. With a win at Qualcomm Stadium, Denver would forge a tie a 3-3 with the Chargers.

"I'm still getting re-acclimated to how things used to be," Peyton Manning said. "Leaving New England with a loss was certainly a reminder of how things used to be.

"This offense is still a work in progress. It's much like a surgically-repaired neck — it takes a while to work out the kinks."

The Chargers held a 24-14 lead over the Saints early in the third quarter last week, but their offense sputtered, and two Phillip Rivers' turnovers sealed their fate.

"It was a painful defeat," Phillip Rivers said, "but it was refreshing to see Drew Brees break Johnny Unitas' record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass. It's too bad Unitas couldn't have been there to see it, but I'm sure he was looking on from above. You could say Brees broke his spirit, and ours."

Denver wins, 33-28.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:57 PM | Comments (0)

Slant Pattern Mailbag

It's time for another edition of the Slant Pattern mailbag. As usual, I do not get any letters asking me questions, so instead I'll be poaching the questions asked to other writers from around the web.

Kent Preston of Kelso, Washington, asked Stewart Mandel:

"What are the chances of a split national title this year? How appropriate, in the last years of the BCS, that Ohio State could go undefeated and everyone else could end up with a loss."

Well, there might be a split national championship this year, but if there is, it won't involve Ohio State. Even if they end the year undefeated, they will be kept behind one-loss teams. Even though they are eligible for the AP national championship, I think AP voters will be very, very reluctant to vote them into the No. 1 spot. The only time the voters seem willing to give top rankings to teams on probation or bowl bans is if they are clearly as good or better than any team in the nation. That cannot be clear for Ohio State because the Big Ten is way down (again) this year, and OSU neither played a strong non-conference schedule nor looked particularly impressive playing it.

Secondly, we got what we wanted: a playoff, starting next year. In years past, I rooted for train-wrecks in national championship conclusions in hopes of spurring a playoff. I was not alone in this. Now that we have it, it's only going to expand. That's the nature of all American playoff structures and college sports in particular. As a result, I think we will see less controversial votes from pundits because they no longer have an incentive to break the system.

Sticking with the Stewart Mandel mailbag, Bob Forrester writes:

"In the West Virginia/Texas game, there were 10 fourth downs. WVU punted once. Texas punted once. WVU went for it five times, and Texas three. Is this the sign that the punt is not long for the college game? Could abandoning the punt (like Mike Leach often does) be the next evolution in football?"

It depends on what you mean by "abandoning." Teams are never going to start regularly going for it at their own 20 at 4th-and-10 in the first quarter.

But I do think finally — finally! — teams are starting to catch on to the general concept of being aggressive on fourth down a lot more than the conventional wisdom would allow. Gregg Easterbrook, the ESPN writer, is a man who I don't often agree with, but he has this issue dead to rights. Each week in his column, he chronicles the chickenshit punting decisions teams make in the NFL, and his trope is to write after each wuss-out, "And I wrote, 'GAME OVER' in my notebook."

I've started noticing this myself, and you can try it too: Any time a team is losing in the second half, and makes a punting (or field goal) decision that makes you say, "Gee, that seems too conservative," that team will lose every. single. time.

On to the NFL. Michael Mezey asks:

"Deep in the fourth quarter, when the Dallas game already was decided, [Jay] Cutler came out to run a series. Why? Last year, we saw the consequence of an injury to Cutler. Bad things can happen on the football field, even when you're just running out the clock. If something had happened — he trips, someone accidentally falls on him — and he misses games, what would we be saying about the decision to leave him in a game that was already put away? Why not bring Jason Campbell in to run that last series?"

Good question. This has actually been a bugaboo of mine for several years: lots of starters, but particularly quarterbacks, staying in the game after it's well in hand. Besides the injury risk you cite, if you're up 28 with four minutes to go, it seems to me this would be a great time to give all the backups some much-needed experience.

The only reason I can think of, and it's not much of one, is your starters, and especially your quarterback, is your leader. Leaders get to play when they want, and they lead not just during the crucial moments, but in showing they can remain focused and energized just as much on the last play of scrimmage as they did on the first. Ever hear a booth commentator chuckle at a coach going ballistic when up by five touchdowns? "He's still coachin'!" they'll say. It's kinda like that. It's a theory, anyway.

Finally, soccer. Michael Rosey asks Grant Wahl:

"Assuming USA takes care of business in Antigua and Barbuda, what should we be rooting for in the Guatemala/Jamaica match?"

Guatemala. If you're unfamiliar with the USMNT's World Cup qualifying status, it's like this: the U.S. is in a group with Antigua & Barbuda, Guatemala, and Jamaica. The top two teams from those four go on to the final round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying. Currently, each team has two games left, and there's a three-way tie for first with the US, Guatemala, and Jamaica all at 2-1-1. Two of those teams will go through, and as it stands, Jamaica would be the odd team out as Guatemala and the US would go through on the first tiebreaker, goal differential. U.S. and Guatemala are currently +2, and Jamaica is +1.

That out of the way, I will indeed assume that the US beat Antigua Friday and examine the three possibilities of the Jamaica/Guatemala game and how they would affect the U.S.'s chances. I will also assume that Jamaica defeats Antigua as well, in their last game.

Jamaica and Guatemala Tie — This would put the U.S. two points clear of both of them. However, they would still need at least a tie in their final game against Guatemala, because Jamaica is probably going to beat Antigua. If the US beats Antigua and loses to Guatemala, and Jamaica beat Antigua, then the U.S. is out.

Guatemala Beats Jamaica — That would mean Guatemala and the U.S. would remain tied at the top of the standings, with Jamaica three points back. Jamaica then, would need to beat Antigua (and again, assume that they will) and they would need the Guatemala/U.S. match not to end in a draw. If Guatemala and the US do draw, they both go through. So we might see a real crummy, unsporting Guatemala-US game where neither team gives much of an effort, secure in the knowledge that they will both advance if they just show up and play to a 0-0 tie. However, even if Guatemala nips the U.S. by a goal, they would still go through unless Jamaica makes up the goal differential tiebreaker on the U.S. They're already one behind, and both the U.S and Jamaica have games left with Antigua.

Jamaica Beats Guatemala — This scenario would give the U.S. an outright lead in the group, via tiebreaker over Jamaica, unless Jamaica really hammers Guatemala, and surpasses the U.S. in goal differential, by at least two more goals than the U.S. beats Antigua by. This seems unlikely considering the match is in Guatemala. However, we can assume (for a third time) Jamaica will go on to beat Antigua, and that would vault them past the U.S. in the group. In this case, not even a draw with Guatemala would assure the US a spot in the final qualifying stage: the U.S. and Guatemala would be tied on points, goal differential, and goals scored. I don't believe there is an Away Goals tiebreaker, so it'd be settled by drawing of lots.

So sizing it up, it seems clear U.S. fans should be rooting for Guatemala on Friday. It's the only scenario where we can lose to Guatemala and still feasibly get in.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:16 AM | Comments (1)

Giant Bats Get Their Freak On

When Brandon Phillips ran the Cincinnati Reds out of what should have been a bigger first inning Tuesday, and Scott Rolen got so eager trying to field a short hop he chested the San Francisco Giants into a 10th-inning, life-saving Game Three win, I must have said somewhere that those would loom large and loud.

If I didn't quite say that, though Game Four may compel its saying yet. With Pablo Sandoval tacking on the exclamation point with his mammoth 2-run bomb in the top of the eighth, and Tim Lincecum merely signing off on what may yet prove these Reds' death sentence.

Add to that sad blend the Reds having lost Johnny Cueto for the rest of the division series at least, and the National League Championship Series at most, the Reds pulling him from the roster at last following the back spasms that drove him out of Game One when it was barely underway.

Cueto would have started Game 4 otherwise. Instead, the Reds replaced Cueto on the roster with Mike Leake, turning to Leake and his .287 regular season batting average against, to the mound to start Wednesday. The compelling reason: Leake had only surrendered 3 runs to the Giants in his previous three gigs against them.

On paper, it looked like an excellent choice. On the field, the Giants made it look like a red flag. They turned on Leake and the Reds, bludgeoning them 8-3, in a game in which the Giants made good and bloody sure the Reds didn't get any advantage above and beyond a tie at any time.

Until Wednesday, Sandoval had been one of the Giants more sedate bats. He awoke with a first inning double and a fifth-inning sacrifice fly, scoring the Giants' fifth run of the day, before standing in against Cincinnati reliever Jose Arredondo.

Marco Scutaro was aboard already, having doubled home Joaquin Arias, who'd come in to play shortstop in the fourth-inning double switch that also brought in Lincecum. With the lead 6-3, Kung Fu Panda squared up and hit a 2-1 service that flew right past the right field foul pole and missed sailing into the Ohio River by a measly 15 feet or thereabout.

All that Christmas in October was a gift to Lincecum, the Giants' erstwhile ace who'd spent most of 2012 sending a search party south to find his apparently kidnapped stuff. He came in in the aforesaid double switch, spelling George Kontos, who'd spelled redemptive starter Barry Zito, after Zito's shaky third inning merely began with Ryan Ludwick's leadoff deposit over the left center field fence.

And all of a sudden it was Lincecum being the Freak he was, once upon a time. He served prompt notice on the Reds when, with first and second and two out, he fell behind 2-0 on Ludwick before dispatching him with three straight strikes, all swinging. Then, he mistreated the Reds to a 1-2-3 fifth and seventh, gifted them one measly sacrifice fly in the sixth for the last Red score of the afternoon, and shook off a 1-out hit (catcher Dioner Navarro) and a pickoff error (his own, allowing Navarro second) to strike out pinch-hitter Chris Heisey.

Six punchouts in four and a third innings work was about as close to vintage Lincecum as the Giants could hope, even if he came in with a one-run lead to protect to begin, the Giants padded his cushion with four more runs as he pitched on, and left him able to dare the Reds to take a swing or three on him by the time Sandoval nearly hit the river.

"It's a little different experience," said Lincecum of coming out of the bullpen, a role he embraced quietly but surely after that shaky regular season, "but this is what it is. It's not about me gettin' my starts, it's not about me being the number one starter, it's about us gettin' our wins."

Leake got slapped silly on the second pitch of the afternoon, Angel Pagan hitting a strike one offering over the right field fence post haste. He dodged further damage by stranding Sandoval (the double), and the Reds gave him some oxygen in the bottom of the first when Todd Frazier, starting in Rolen's stead, wrung a bases-loaded walk out of Zito before Navarro stranded the pads full with an inning-ending swishout.

Then Leake ran promptly into fresh terror opening the top of the second, when Hector Sanchez beat out an infield hit and Gregor Blanco cleared the right center field fence. He managed to pitch well enough over the next two innings, but when Arias and Pagan greeted him with back-to-back doubles opening the top of the fifth, and Scutaro sacrificed Pagan to third, Dusty Baker lifted him for Sam LeClure, and Sandoval promptly lifted his sacrifice fly.

Zito, for his part, didn't pitch terribly, even with the specter of his spectacular gazillion-dollar contract failure and his exclusion from the Giants' World Series-winning postseason roster on his resume. He might have walked the bases loaded in the first after Votto's two-out single up the pipe, but he squirmed out of that with just one run against him with that magnificent strikeout. He opened the second with a pair of swishouts, surrendered a pair of infield hits, then got Votto to fly out to left.

But Bruce Bochy was taking no chances after Ludwick said hello to open the third with a 398-foot launch and Zito handed Navarro the two-out walk. It was almost as though Kontos and Jose Mijares were his holding-pattern shooters until Lincecum was ready, willing, and more than able.

Now the question becomes whether the Reds will be ready, willing, and more than able to stop a sudden Giant uprising. Matt Latos, who pitched so magnificently in the earlier going, gets to face Matt Cain, who stepped into the Giants' ace role when Lincecum continued faltering.

Right now, it only seems advantage, Giants. Lincecum is proving himself a bullpen stopper, Cain was one of the National League's most unhittable pitchers even if the Reds did manage to slap him for his first-ever postseason runs, and the bats that looked so fruitless until the 10th inning Tuesday seem to have found some circulation.

But Latos did shrug off a measly three days' rest to enter in the Game One second and pitch unblemished but for Buster Posey's belt over his four innings' work. The Reds' season-long-vaunted bullpen has been known to shake off the occasional shaky day. They'll have to Thursday, just in case.

Kidnapping Lincecum might not hurt the Reds' chances, either. He half hinted that he'd even make himself available to pinch hit if absolutely necessary. Right now, even if his manager has no known intention of even thinking in that direction, it'd be impossible to bet against him.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:25 AM | Comments (0)

October 10, 2012

The Orioles Like Mondays, So Far

What a difference Monday makes. To Jim Johnson and to the Baltimore Orioles.

On Sunday night, Johnson got slapped around like a parakeet when he came in to try holding a two-all tie. On Monday, he and his fellow bullpen bulls stood fast enough, after rookie Wei-Yin Chen out-pitched and out-smarted out-of-retirement, wizened Andy Pettitte, before getting tired in the top of the seventh.

And the Orioles had it even with the Empire Emeritus, a 3-2 win played about as tightly as a baseball game can be played under any conditions, never mind postseason conditions that include only slightly veiled weather threats.

"To hold that offence to two runs," Baltimore right fielder Chris Davis told reporters after the game, "is saying something." Derek Jeter knew what it said for the Orioles. "They're a good team," he said, simply. Pettitte was a little finer about it. "They were tough," he said. "We weren't able to get the big hits with runners in scoring position."

First baseman Mark Reynolds called Sunday night, on which the Yankees pasted five runs on Johnson and the Orioles in the top of the ninth, "a hiccup. [Johnson] obviously showed what he was capable of tonight." He was capable of getting Jeter to open the ninth with a meek ground out to shortstop, Ichiro Suzuki to ground one up the pipe to second base for a two-strike out, and Alex Rodriguez to a full-count swinging strikeout that brought down the Camden Yards house as wildly as Chen did when he came out.

Chen pitched a masterpiece on a night Pettitte, who came out of retirement with hopes of pitching just such games, wasn't necessarily in terrible shape and made the Orioles work for the three runs they pried out of him. It must have seemed a bit of a culture shock for the old left-hander who, somehow, doesn't quite look his age even so, since he hadn't faced the Orioles in postseason play in almost two decades.

Chen had to shake off a 1-0 deficit early, and it began with Jeter, who'd tagged him for a bomb in his major league debut, lining one up the pipe for a leadoff hit. Ichiro snuck aboard on two strikes when Reynolds couldn't come up with his tapper up the line, but A-Rod lined into a fast double play, Robert Andino spearing the sinking liner and doubling Jeter off the pad at second.

Then Robinson Cano smashed one off the right field corner wall and Ichiro, rather athletically, slid around the tag at the plate. And Chen seemed to get two a-has for the price of one: don't give Cano a chance to beat him, and don't spend the evening trying to pound these Yankees, who feast on the stuff, with pure fastballs alone, no matter how well they're working when they come out of your hand. Then he threw one that sank just enough on Nick Swisher to lure him into grounding out to shortstop J.J. Hardy for the side.

For the Oriole first Pettitte looked and performed plenty enough like his vintage self, dispatching them with a leadoff liner to left (Nate McLouth), a ground out to second (Hardy), and a called third strike (on Chris Davis). Chen settled in likewise in the Yankee second, ridding himself of Mark Teixiera (foul pop behind first), Russell Martin (fly to center), and Curtis Granderson (a pounding strikeout) so swiftly you almost forgot these were the Yankees with whom you were dealing.

The fun really began in the bottom of the third, and with two outs in the bargain. Robert Andino fought one off with a broken bat and still managed to dump the Orioles' first base hit of the night into center field, and McLouth followed promptly with a clean single of his own before Hardy wrung Pettitte for a bases-loading walk. Davis, whose 33 bombs led the Orioles on the regular season, waited out ball one before lining an inside slider that fell into right, with Andino and McLouth running on the pitch and crossing the plate unmolested.

All of a sudden the Orioles had overthrown the early Yankee lead. And they might have come out of it with more than a 2-1 advantage had it not been for a little clever sleight-of-hand in the Yankee infield.

With first and second Adam Jones shot a 1-2 pitch toward the hole at shortstop. Jeter stabbed at it, managing to make Hardy think he'd come up with it as the Oriole shortstop also missed third base coach DeMarlo Hale's sign to head home with Rodriguez at third abetting Jeter's deke, and Hardy stayed at third, re-loading the bases for catcher Matt Wieters, who popped out to Cano at second to keep it there.

Chen squirmed out of trouble in the fourth after loading the bases on two hits (Teixiera and Granderson lining up the middle) surrounding a walk (to Martin), getting Eduardo Nunez to bloop a floater to shortstop and Jeter to force Granderson at second. Pettitte matched him after Reynolds opened safe when a high throw from Jeter pulled Teixiera off the pad at first, getting Jim thome on a strikeout, Manny Machado to whack a grounder to third that forced A-Rod to play a quivering hop and force Reynolds at second, and Andino on a grounder up the pipe for the side.

Then Chen and Pettitte swapped three-up, three-down in the fifth. Chen shook off an unlikely shortstop error in the Yankee sixth, when Martin's two-out smash skipped through Hardy's wicket under his glove, to rid himself of Granderson on a meek popup. The Orioles bought some insurance promptly enough in their half. Wieters lined one that might have taken Cano's head off if the stout Yankee second baseman hadn't ducked and turned, legging himself a double for his effort, and Reynolds shot one through the hole at second allowing Wieters to score the third Oriole run.

Pettitte regrouped to get Thome on a full-count strikeout and Machado to dial Area Code 1-4-3. But Chen finally ran out of fuel in the Yankee seventh, after Davis dove for but couldn't come up with Nunez's full-count leadoff double and Jeter lined him home post haste to close up the Yankee deficit to 3-2. Ichiro slapped one to Hardy, who nailed Jeter for one, while Andino's followup to first just missed getting Ichiro, and Chen came out to a thunderous standing O.

Not that the Orioles were alarmed. They trust their bullpen as few normally do. Darren O'Day came in to strike out A-Rod while Ichiro was occupied stealing second, Brian Matusz came in and — after manager Buck Showalter called for a free pass to Cano, defying the (ahem) conventional wisdom and putting the prospective tiebreaker on — wrestled Swisher (1-for-19 against Matusz to that point; 1-for-32 with men in scoring position lifetime in the postseason) into a fly out to left, and there went the Yankee threat.

Matusz went on to survive Teixiera's leadoff bullet to left, McLouth backhanding it smartly to keep the Yankee first baseman on first, striking out Martin and Granderson before Nunez popped out behind first base for the side. The Yankees decided Pettitte had given all he had to give, too, sending out David Robertson after Pettitte opened the bottom of the eighth surrendering Davis's up-the-pipe bullet base hit. Jones tapped one back to Robertson to push pinch-runner Endy Chavez to second.

Chavez took third as Wieters grounded out to Teixiera unassisted behind the first base pad, before Robertson ended it with a swinging strikeout on Reynolds. Which did nothing but set the table for Johnson to redeem his Sunday night slaughtering in magnificent fashion.

It was the new Oriole Way, the way they'd managed to put baseball on stun all season long, getting close enough to overthrowing the Yankees for the American League East title. They were defiant virtuosi in winning one-run games (29 on the season), and they had the bullpen bulls to take them for the unlikely ride right down to Monday night's masterwork.

And the Orioles aren't exactly shivering about the trip to New York for the rest of the division series, either. Hell, they won all three sets they played at Yankee Stadium on the regular season. "I think the biggest thing for us," said Davis, "is we feel comfortable playing in New York."

Even with Hiroki Kuroda to send out for Game 3, that isn't necessarily a comfortable thought — facing Baltimore rookie Miguel Gonzalez, he of the 2.63 ERA in two Bronx starts — for the Yankees to remember.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 2:16 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 30

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski survived the last-lap pileup at Talladega intact and finished seventh. He remained on top of the Sprint Cup point standings and leads Jimmie Johnson by 14.

"It appears Lady Luck is on my side," Keselowski said. "How else can you explain how I emerged from that mess with a seventh-place finish? So what you will, but I'll never again complain about 'women' drivers."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson's No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet was one of several cars damaged in Talladega's "Big One," triggered by Tony Stewart on the final lap. Johnson is still second in the point standings, and now trails Brad Keselowski by 14.

"My car was so damaged," Johnson said, "I had to hitch a ride back to the pits with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. That was the first time a champion's been in that car."

3. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished 11th in the Good Sam Roadside Assistance 500, one of the few cars that escaped the final lap melee unscathed. He held on to the third spot in the point standings, and is 20 behind Brad Keselwoski.

"I lost my rearview mirror about midway through Sunday's race," Hamlin said. "Luckily, it was replaceable, because I couldn't see myself winning without it.

4. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led seven laps at Talladega and finished second, after navigating through the carnage that ensued when Tony Stewart was clipped by Michael Waltrip. Gordon now has three runner-up finishes in the Chase, but has made little ground in the point standings.

"It appears that, despite solid finishes," Gordon said, "I won't be able to make up much ground in the Chase. I'm sure some will argue that the Chase format needs more tweaking to reward cases such as mine. And I would be the first to 'second' that emotion."

5. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth won in a wild finish at Talladega, pulling away for the victory as chaos reigned behind him. It was his second win of the season following his triumph at Daytona in February.

"That's two superspeedway wins for me in which I persevered despite major incidents," Kenseth said. "First it was Juan Montoya starting a fire, then it was Tony Stewart starting a wreck. Just call me the 'Master of Disaster.'

"It was shaping up to be a close finish, but after the crash, I ended up winning easily. With respect to my contract with Joe Gibbs Racing, you could say I won 'going away.'"

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer was in position to compete for the win in the closing moments at Talladega, but was collected in the "Big One," triggered when Tony Stewart was turned while trying to move in front of Michael Waltrip.

"A win was in our sights," Bowyer said, "and would have been a big lift to our championship hopes. As it was, Tony Stewart got a 'lift,' in the air and on my hood.

7. Tony Stewart — Stewart was leading on the final lap at Talladega, but with Michael Waltrip fast approaching, Stewart tried to move in front of the No. 55. It didn't work, Stewart spun, and much of the field was affected in the pileup. Stewart finished 22nd, and is now 43 out of first in the point standings.

"I take full responsibility for the wreck," Stewart said. "I said as much when I took to social media to explain on my new Twitter account, '@fault.'

"As you have heard, I've secure sponsorship from Bass Pro Shops for 18 races in 2013. I'm thrilled. I can't wait until next year, when I can qualify first for a race and proudly proclaim it a 'fishing pole.'"

8. Kasey Kahne — Kahne started on the pole and finished 13th after a wild, last-lap crash that saw Tony Stewart's No. 14 Chevy on the hood of Kahne's No. 5 Chevy. Kahne moved up two spots to fourth in the point standings, and is 37 out of first.

"Aric Almirola handed out 600 pounds of bacon to celebrate Gwaltney's sponsorship of the No. 43 car," Kahne said. "Interestingly enough, I later gave Stewart a 'piggy-back' ride on Sunday."

9. Kevin Harvick — Harvick was battling up front, with a good chance to win, when the inevitable struck at Talladega. When the dust had cleared, Harvick had an 11th-place finish.

"The Good Sam Roadside Assistance 500 certainly lived up to his name," Harvick said. "At least the 'Roadside Assistance" part. Kurt Busch lived up to the name, as well, at least the 'Roadside Ass' part."

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 21st after order was restored in the aftermath of a massive final-lap crash that left much of the field in wrecked cars. Earnhardt is now 11th in the point standings, 58 out of first.

"Despite the damage to my car," Earnhardt said, "I was still able to give Jimmie Johnson a ride back to the pits. It felt good to be able to return the favor, because Jimmie's 'carried' this team for so long.

"Drivers may not like it, but fans love racing at Talladega. And I'm all about giving the fans what they want, as long as it's overpriced merchandise bearing my likeness and not wins."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:15 PM | Comments (0)

October 9, 2012

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Amen, Clay Matthews: "If the NFL really wants to increase player safety, start protecting players on both sides of the ball."

* The Chiefs rank 32nd in turnover differential. What's stunning is that their -15 is worse than the 30th- and 31st-ranked teams combined (Dallas and Philadelphia, both -7).

* Alex Karras, the great Detroit Lions DT, is extremely ill with kidney disease. Karras was one of the best ever at his position, an entertainer on and off the field. Hopefully his family will see him enshrined in Canton one day.

* When Jordin Sparks sang the national anthem on Sunday night, at first I thought to myself, "Oh, she has a nice voice." But she sure doesn't have much range. Poor girl only hit about half the notes.

* The Bills spent this offseason bragging about their defense, upgraded with pass rushers Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. In Week 6, they'll face the 8-sacks-a-game Cardinals. If Williams and Anderson can't get it done against Arizona, they just aren't going to get it done.

***

I normally resist conspiracy theories, but on Sunday night, it sure looked like the Chargers got stuck in a good narrative. Several close calls in the fourth quarter had Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth joking that the replacement officials could do a better job. An uncalled offensive pass interference led to the Saints' go-ahead touchdown, and debatable calls against San Diego turned two 20+ yard gains into a pair of 10-yard penalties.

The Chargers had reached Saints territory at the two-minute warning, but the refs sent them back to their own 33 with only 1:32 left. They'd lost 22 yards and 1/4 of the time available to them. Ronnie Brown didn't help matters, by repeatedly refusing to run out of bounds, nor did Jared Gaither, by playing through an injury that basically prevented him from moving. But three questionable decisions by Brian Stropolo's Carl Cheffers' officiating crew appeared to make a big difference in a game it was convenient for the Saints to win. Probably a coincidence, but ugly nonetheless. In this week's power rankings, brackets indicate previous rank.

1. Houston Texans [1] — It's too early for postseason predictions, but Matt Slauson may have cost Houston the Super Bowl on Monday night. Brian Cushing is the best inside linebacker in the NFL, and Slauson damaged his knee with an ugly chop block. The Texans are a great team, and they're used to dealing with injuries, but I don't believe you can lose a player of that caliber and win a championship. For his part, Slauson needs to realize you can end a player's season — or career — by diving at his knees like that. Not okay.

2. San Francisco 49ers [4] — Gained 621 yards against Buffalo, a team record. The 49ers had the Million Dollar Backfield, Montana and Craig, Young and Rice, even Garcia and T.O. Nope, the record belongs to Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree. San Francisco has won its last two games by a combined score of 79-3.

3. Atlanta Falcons [2] — That's their second or third uncomfortably close win, and for all the talent on this offense, you'd like to see more points on the board. But there's no complaining about Tony Gonzalez. This weekend, Gonzalez caught his 99th touchdown pass and went over 100 receiving yards for the 29th time. Tight ends with 20 or more 100-yard games:

1. Tony Gonzalez, 29
2. Kellen Winslow, 24
3. Jackie Smith, 22

Gonzalez leads the NFL in receptions (39) and receiving first downs (29).

4. New England Patriots [5] — Even outside of the two-minute drill, lots of teams use no-huddle offense. In Week 5, the Patriots used a true hurry-up offense, to devastating effect. New England leads the NFL in yards, points, and first downs. The team is also +10 in turnovers, tied with Atlanta for best in the NFL.

5. Baltimore Ravens [6] — One of nine teams with fewer than 20 third-down conversions this season. Four of the nine have already had a bye. Baltimore's 33% conversion rate ranks behind the Titans, Jets, and Dolphins, as well as most other teams. Kansas City was allowing 34 points a game, and all the Ravens managed was three field goals.

6. Chicago Bears [8] — For the second week in a row, both Lance Briggs and Peanut Tillman returned interceptions for touchdowns. Chicago now has 5 defensive TDs this season. The offense also came alive, topping 500 yards for the first time since 1989. Brandon Marshall caught 12 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown, his third game this season with 100+ yards and a score.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [9] — Troy Polamalu aggravated his calf injury and will not play in Thursday night's matchup at Tennessee. Lamar Woodley injured his hamstring and might miss the game as well. Rashard Mendenhall, however, played well in his return to action. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in third down percentage (53%).

8. Arizona Cardinals [3] — Their offensive line gave one of the worst performances I've ever seen in professional football, stunningly bad. Thursday night's loss was the second consecutive game in which they allowed 8 or more sacks, an ignominy last matched by the 2003 Arizona Cardinals. You don't hear this very often, but the Cardinals didn't hold enough against St. Louis. Have you ever seen the NFL Films clip where Boomer Esiason talks to his linemen about holding? "When it comes to holding, a hold or a sack, hold their ass." Offensive holding is a 10-yard penalty. But a sack loses about 6 yards, plus loss of down, and your quarterback can get hurt. On Thursday night, the Cardinals allowed 9 sacks, but were only flagged for holding twice (one of them declined), and not until late in the third quarter. When you're getting killed like that, you've got to try and get away with some holds.

At the same time, let's not pretend this was exclusively the line's fault. If you're Kevin Kolb, at some point you must get rid of the ball. It's a three-step drop, and you know their pass rush is beating your line. If no one's open, throw it away. Don't keep losing yardage and taking unnecessary hits. You've also got to blame the incredibly predictable offensive play-calling: run on first down, pass on second and third. Arizona didn't start running screens and draws until the fourth quarter. The team also ran almost exclusively from heavy formations and passed from multi-receiver sets. You can't telegraph your intentions like that and expect to win.

9. Minnesota Vikings [18] — Tough team to evaluate, because of their schedule. They've beaten the Jaguars, Lions, and Titans, who all appear to be pretty bad, and they lost to the Colts, who don't seem great. They also beat the 49ers, albeit in sort of a weird game. Anyway, they're 4-1, and here they are in the top 10.

10. Philadelphia Eagles [10] — Michael Vick lost another two fumbles this week, including one at the goal line. It's unfortunate, I think, that just when a seemingly penitent Vick returned to NFL action, he had that great 2010 season and everyone started telling him — again — how great he was. I don't know Mike Vick, but it seems like he views all criticism as unmerited, just haters doing their thing. Man, you lead the NFL in turnovers. You fumbled at the goal line and your team lost by two. Point the finger at yourself.

11. Denver Broncos [11] — Willis McGahee looks great this season. It sounds crazy to say a running back who's had four 1,000-yard seasons, and is about to turn 31, is the playing the best football of his career, but that may actually be the case. On Sunday, however, McGahee committed two critical errors that might have changed the outcome. He dropped a screen pass that would have given Denver a first down on 4th-and-1, and he lost a fourth-quarter fumble in the red zone.

12. Seattle Seahawks [13] — They've only scored 20 points once all season, but this defense is terrific. They abused Cam Newton and held Carolina to 190 yards of offense. The Panthers scored on a defensive touchdown, a safety, and one lonely field goal courtesy of the offense. Seattle ranks 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense (14 pts/gm).

13. New York Giants [15] — Fell behind 14-0, but doubled Cleveland's first downs (30-15) and came back to win 41-27. Victor Cruz has more catches (37) and more receiving TDs (5) than any two other Giants combined, with nearly as many receiving yards (438).

14. Green Bay Packers [7] — This business with the replacement refs has gone far enough. The roughness call on Nick Perry that nullified a red zone turnover was not merely questionable, it was clearly wrong. That was a great hit. We all know the officials are doing their best, but they're simply not qualified for this job. Let's get real refs like Walt Anderson back on the field, pronto.

15. San Diego Chargers [12] — What is wrong with Richard Goodman and Marcus Gilchrist? Here's which yard line the Chargers began their drives following Saints kickoffs: own 20, 6, 19, 29, 18, 15. They started inside their own 20 four times, including once at the six. All of those kickoffs were at least seven yards deep in the end zone. Goodman is nuts to run them out, and Gilchrist is just as bad for letting him do it. I wouldn't want guys like that on my roster.

16. Dallas Cowboys [16] — The Cowboys, who had a bye this week, were the first NFL team to use computers. So here's a computer-related PSA for NFL Network's Chris Rose (and many other people): you should never use the word "backslash" when reading a web address.

/ Slash
\ Backslash

17. Cincinnati Bengals [14] — Contained Reggie Bush (48 yds, 2.5 avg) and Brian Hartline (59 yds), but their own offense struggled: 298 yards, 2/14 third down conversions, 3 turnovers. The Bengals scored at least 27 points in each of their three wins, and were held to 13 in both losses, less than half as many.

18. St. Louis Rams [19] — Already won more games (3) than all of last season (2-14), and they're over .500 for the first time since 2006. Their special teams look great, but Sam Bradford struggled badly on Thursday, going 7-of-21 and throwing 12 straight incompletions. Danny Amendola broke his clavicle in the second quarter, and will miss at least a month. St. Louis is one of two teams that hasn't scored a rushing touchdown this season (the other is Tennessee).

19. Miami Dolphins [25] — Only 2 passing TDs this season. Every other team has at least 4. The Saints, Falcons, Bills, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, and Giants all have five times as many passing TDs as Miami.

20. Washington Redskins [21] — Robert Griffin III suffered a totally unnecessary concussion on Sunday. When you can run out of bounds, or dive forward, gain half a yard, and sustain a head injury, you go out of bounds.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [22] — If you own the Bucs defense in fantasy, start them in Week 6. The Chiefs are a gold mine.

22. New Orleans Saints [27] — Marques Colston caught 9 passes for 131 yards and 3 TDs. His 52 career touchdowns broke the franchise record held by Joe Horn (50). Against San Diego, they gained 19 first downs passing and 1 rushing. Early in the third quarter, Ben Grubbs and Zach Strief were called for false starts on consecutive plays. How does that happen in a home game?

23. Detroit Lions [23] — Seven starting QBs have thrown more interceptions this year than touchdowns. Among those seven, Detroit's Matthew Stafford has the highest passer rating, 81.6.

24. New York Jets [24] — I don't understand why they use Tim Tebow so seldom. I wouldn't want to see him as the full-time starting QB — Denver's offense was borderline unwatchable last year — but he has play-making ability and provides a spark that the offense otherwise lacks. Give him a series now and then.

25. Buffalo Bills [17] — Outgained by 417 yards this weekend. Three of their five opponents have scored at least 45 points.

26. Indianapolis Colts [32] — Won an emotional game for their absent head coach, Chuck Pagano, who is undergoing treatment for leukemia. It was a great win, and evidently Reggie Wayne (13 rec, career-high 212 yards, game-winning TD) still has it. But teams can't sustain that kind of emotional performance, and this roster still has a lot of holes.

27. Carolina Panthers [20] — In February, I wrote a column on the best rookie quarterbacks in NFL history. Of the top 10, one player's career was wrecked by a shoulder injury, one became a moderately successful wide receiver, one built a 15-year career as a backup, and five went on to very successful careers. The other two are Andy Dalton, who appears to be on the right track, and Cam Newton. It is basically unprecedented for a rookie QB as successful as Newton to fall off the rails the way he has so far in 2012.

28. Oakland Raiders [26] — Wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, who suffered a scary injury in Week 3, is expected to return to the field in Week 6.

29. Kansas City Chiefs [29] — Fans cheered the injury to quarterback Matt Cassel. That is seriously trashy.

Classless: [klas-lis, klahs-] adj., see Kansas City Chiefs fans.

30. Tennessee Titans [28] — They've allowed 30 points in every game this year. Andy Behrens reports that "Tennessee has now allowed 41 catches, 420 receiving yards and 7 TDs to opposing tight ends."

31. Cleveland Browns [30] — 23rd straight game committing a turnover. 11th straight loss. Call it The Enduring Curse of Art Modell: the Browns are 0-5 for the first time since they returned to Cleveland in 1999. Three defensive starters, including D'Qwell Jackson, left Sunday's game with injuries. On the bright side, CB Joe Haden returns from suspension in Week 6. Back to the negatives, Brandon Weeden has the worst passer rating (64.5) of any starting QB in the league.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — Last season, they had the worst offense in the NFL. This season, they already have more games of single-digit scoring than all of 2011. They also gave up 501 yards to Chicago, the most for the Bears since before this team existed.

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Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:33 PM | Comments (0)

Like 'Em or Not, Ducks Are Flying High

The Oregon Ducks have been dazzling us with their speed and explosiveness over the past few college football seasons. However, they seem to always stumble somewhere along the way ending any hopes of a national title. This season the Ducks have much the same ingredients that has helped them come close in recent years.

There is one thing that feels different about this team that separates them from Ducks teams of the past. A quiet confidence that seems to permeate throughout the locker room that starts with head coach Chip Kelly. The past few seasons, the Oregon Ducks were thought of as arrogant and cocky. Their personality has changed this season and it shows on the field. The Ducks are averaging 52 points a game, blowing out their opponent week after week.

I have had the opportunity to watch the Ducks play a lot since I live in the Pacific Northwest. Some may say I am biased because I live in this part of the country. Nothing could be further from the truth. I grew up a Washington Husky fan and then went to Washington State University and I am now a Cougar for life. The only thing I have to be proud of lately is watching my beloved Cougar flag flying high on College Gameday every Saturday morning.

Oregon (currently ranked No. 2) has more speed than any team I have ever seen. Led by Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas, the Ducks will continue to light up the scoreboard against the rest of the Pac-12. The Ducks defense has a bend-but-don't-break philosophy and a knack for creating turnovers.

Oregon has some tough contests during the month of November. November 3rd at No. 11 USC, November 17th at home versus No. 17 Stanford before wrapping up the Pac-12 regular season against state rival and currently undefeated No. 10 Oregon State. If the Ducks are able to survive November, they will be truly battle tested and ready to take on the heavyweights of the SEC.

The Ducks are a difficult team to like. They have a coach that likes to go for two whenever they get their first touchdown of the game to take an unconventional 8-0 lead. Oregon plays their games at Autzen Stadium where the fans are to be kind, ugly toward opposing team fans. Some people I know went to see the Huskies in Eugene and got to experience the feeling of spit coming down from above. And finally, the constant changing of uniforms and helmets with varying shades of green. Where are they getting all this money? Oh yeah, Nike is a sponsor and has their corporate headquarters not far away. Must be nice.

Although there are many reasons to dislike Oregon, the fact is, they are a very good football team loaded with talent. Chip Kelly has developed a system along with outstanding recruiting that has this program reloading each year rather than rebuilding. The Ducks have solidified themselves as a true Pac-12 power.

Most of the country is in love with the SEC and rightfully so. After all, the conference has provided the past eight national champions. The rest of the country better take notice because this Oregon Duck team is headed to the big game against Alabama. This just might be the year that the SEC goes down.

Posted by Greg Suttich at 1:15 PM | Comments (8)

October 8, 2012

The Nats Win, By Hook or By Rooks

Bryce Harper might be the overwhelming Rookie of the Year winner when the hardware voting is revealed in due course, but he's not the only Washington Nationals rookie with a talent for coming up powerfully enough when the game gets late and his Nats need a thrust. Tyler Moore, in Game 1 of the National League division series, anyway, seems rather capable of doing that himself.

So does Ryan Mattheus, a rookie among the Nat's bullpen bulls, even if you feed him to two of the St. Louis Cardinals' most carnivorous of vultures with men in scoring position.

Moore was sent out in the Washington eighth to pinch hit for Chad Tracy — himself a pinch hitter for Mattheus, until St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny brought in Mark Rzepczynski to relieve Mitchell Boggs. He reached for a 2-2 fastball tailing away, cued it on a loft to fall onto the right field grass, sending Michael Morse (aboard on Cardinal rookie Pete Kozma's miscue at shortstop) and Ian Desmond (a clean single to right) home for the first and only lead the Nats would need, 3-2.

"I was jumping up and down for him, going crazy," Harper said.

There are those who think postseason experience is a matter of perspective, that sometimes if you haven't been there before you know little enough about its magnitude that you get a job done without blinking even once.

Until Moore's cue shot, Mattheus looked like the rookie of the game just a half inning earlier. Brought in to spell Craig Stammen after the latter loaded the pads by plunking Matt Holliday with nobody out, the Nats began to look just a little overmatched by the defending world champions, no matter how tight the score ... and with Allen Craig looming at the plate for openers.

Craig, the National League's leader in batting with men in scoring position on the season — with a .400 average in that scenario. Behind him, St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina — who hit a none too shabby .321 in the same scenario on the season. Think they weren't dreaming of the RBIs they were about to pile up on the rookie right-hander?

Two pitches, and Mattheus squeezed the Nats out of that jam post haste. He got Craig to swat one to shortstop, from where Desmond fired a bullet to the plate to bag Jon Jay, who'd been aboard on an error at first. Then, he got Molina, who's also hit into more bases-loaded double plays than any man in baseball since he premiered in 2004, to do just that.

This on a day Gio Gonzalez was just wild enough to hand out seven passes while keeping the Cardinals to a single hit, David Freese's 3-2 hopper through the hole at shortstop. Just wild enough that the Redbirds scored their first two runs without a hit, in the second inning, after the Nats took the 1-0 lead on Kurt Suzuki's two-out single to left.

Bad enough that Gonzalez walked the bases loaded with one out, but his wild pitch while working on and walking Adam Wainwright let Molina come home before Jon Jay sent Daniel Descalso home with a sacrifice fly.

Wainwright spent his day becoming the first St. Louis pitcher to ring up double-digit punchouts since Bob Gibson in the 1968 World Series. Until he handed Suzuki a two-out pass with Morse aboard in the sixth, Wainwright had landed 10 punchouts, spread 6 hits, walked only 3, and left the Nats looking foolish often enough.

The Nats loaded the bases on Wainwright in the second and his immediate relief Lance Lynn in the sixth and cashed in nothing. The only reason the score wasn't worse than 2-1, Cardinals by the time the eighth inning came around was Jayson Werth, who ran down what was supposed to be Descalso's 2-run bomb in the sixth and jumped over the wall to bring it back for the out.

Descalso got even, though. In the seventh he lunged as far left as he could to the hole at second, snatching a dead-certain leadoff base hit from Harper, rolling up swiftly to throw Harper out by mere steps.

Shame he couldn't throw out the second-guessing. Cardinal manager Mike Matheny got outmaneuvered by Nats manager Davey Johnson in that eighth. When Johnson sent the left-handed Tracy to face the right-hander Boggs, Matheny brought in Rzepczynski — the only left-hander among his bulls, but a slightly lesser pitcher than Boggs this year. He must have forgotten the Nats' bench depth at any age. Johnson didn't hesitate calling Tracy back and sending Moore out.

Google "Tyler Moore" and the first biographical result that comes up is "Mary Tyler Moore." But it wasn't her who turned Washington on into smiles Sunday.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:13 AM | Comments (0)

Ryder Cup in Review

Questions will undoubtedly be asked of Davis Love III following his side's terrible Ryder Cup defeat last Sunday. How could such a lead be wasted? How could some of the players play so badly?

These questions will, in time, demand answers, but for now, these players will surely still be wallowing in self-pity following the worst comeback defeat of Ryder Cup history. It turns out that winning from 10-6 up on the final day is harder than it looks.

In many ways, this year's Ryder Cup was a one that we will always remember — in the same way USA's triumph at Brookline has been. But in other ways, it is one to be forgotten.

After what has been a tremendous summer of triumph for Britain — with the best ever medal tally for the hosts at the London Olympics, the first Briton to win the Tour de France in the form of Bradley Wiggins, and Andy Murray's sensational U.S. Open win, ending a 76-year wait for a male grand slam winner — to be met by boos on the final day of the Ryder Cup was galling.

Europe were already 4 points behind with only 12 to play for, and needed an astonishing eight wins to retain the trophy. It was out of sight. And yet a majority of American fans saw fit to boo.

Home nation advantage is said to be worth around a point and a half. The crowd is on your side, and the pressure is hugely on your opponents. It is considered appropriate, acceptable, and sporting, to support your team by cheering for them, singing their songs, and trying to gee them up with numerous "come-ons" and "you-can-do-its."

So why, whenever a European player stepped up to the tee, or holed a putt to half or win a hole, were there boos? This was not the case when USA visited Ireland the last time Europe hosted in 2006.

It is not simply the case that there were a few hooligans around the crowd — not to mention the moron who decided to shout, "F*** you, Seve" as the European team saw fit to remember one of their Ryder Cup legends, Severiano Ballasteros, who sadly passed away last year — but a large proportion of USA fans were engaging in unsportsmanlike conduct.

Europe's win should not then brush this under the rug and say "forgive and forget." This problem should be addressed head on. It does not reflect well on the country, or the sport as a whole.

The problem was that many of the supporters attending this year's Ryder Cup at the Medinah Club in Chicago were not golf fans. They take interest when it is the Ryder Cup, of course, because it is team play, and they can support their nation, rather than any individual golfer. There is a very definite and clear idea of who you are supposed to support, and a very clear idea of an opponent.

To boo in golf is not unheard of, but it is rare, and it is usually reserved for Boo Weekley, an American golfer who goes by that name. In his case, it is fine to boo because it is his name and used to support him. However, he was not on the team, so there was no reason to be saying it.

The reason the Ryder Cup became a little out of control is because of those non-dedicated golf fans, who clearly have another sport as their primary focus. It would be impossible to accurately guess what sport most of these fans have as their primary focus without stereotyping, but baseball and American football are both safe bets — they are loud and played outdoors. It is not too far fetched to suggest that these are where the supporters came from this time out.

It is a shame that this is a big talking point when it would be more fitting to talk about the celebrations and the fantastic triumph for golf, with such dramatic scenes attracting millions of viewers across the world. But everyone is talking about that, and no one is daring to confront a very real and very pressing issue.

The Ryder Cup was a fantastic spectacle this year, as it is almost every year that it is played. But this year, whilst the victory for Europe was sensational, victory for golf was bittersweet.

Posted by Angus Saul at 9:50 AM | Comments (2)

October 7, 2012

Early Tourneys: The Underappreciated

There are several tournaments going on during the holiday season. With showcase games all over the country, some can get lost in the shuffle. But no matter which early season title shows up in the champion's trophy case, it holds relevance to that team. The confidence that comes with winning an event involving unfamiliar foes can carry throughout the entire season.

Now, not everyone agrees with me when it comes to how much importance these tournaments hold. However, even if you don't get to the Final Four in April, it appears that most early tourney winners give themselves the chance to make an NCAA run by reaching the big tournament. Keep that in mind when taking in these next two fields.

Paradise Jam

The island of St. Thomas is a beautiful location (from what I've heard), especially as winter seeps in across the U.S. But as the Jam goes into its 12th annual tournament, the field isn't as "marquee" as it has been in the last few years. The two big names on the bracket are Connecticut and Wake Forest. New Mexico and George Mason offer some mid-major clout. Another quality program in the field is Iona, starting out on the bottom of the bracket. The tourney is rounded out by Mercer, Quinnipiac, and Illinois-Chicago.

Three Reasons Why We Should Watch

Path Back to Glory Days

It was less than two years ago that UConn was on top of college basketball. Jim Calhoun led his less experienced squad of underclassmen and junior star Kemba Walker through an up and down season. While a bit lackluster in the regular season, they brought it in tournament play. A loaded Maui Invitational field, the daunting Big East tournament, and the NCAAs provided the template for 14 of their 32 wins in the 2010-2011 season.

Then, the NCAA stepped in and hung a cloud of despair over the program. The drawn-out process concerning the ban from the 2013 postseason tourney due to a substandard APR score seemed to weigh on the Huskies last season. And while Walker's promotion to the pros took a leader off the team, the talent left behind should have more than made up for the loss. Now Calhoun has retired, sophomore stud Jeremy Lamb bolted to the NBA, and senior center Alex Oriakhi has transferred. With no Big Dance to fight for, it'll be interesting to see how first-year coach Kevin Ollie will react to a "lame duck" season.

For Wake Forest, it's more simplistic. They're trying to get back to the days where Tim Duncan and Chris Paul (over two separate careers) had the Demon Deacons annually fighting for ACC titles and receiving top seeds in the NCAAs. Wake made the tourney in 2009 and 2010, but those seasons seem to be overshadowed by what could have been. That's especially true in 2009, when a squad led by Jeff Teague and Al-Farouq Aminu lost in their opening NCAA game to Cleveland State.

Fast forward to today, and third-year coach Jeff Bzdelik is turning the roster over. A very large freshman class will have to be relied on at some point this year as the program looks to return to those consistent glory days.

How Will the Mid-Majors Fare?

It's been a couple of years since George Mason made the NCAAs, and they didn't take part in any postseason tournament in March. However, the Patriots have the vast majority of their team back from a squad that went 24-9 in 2011-2012. The three seniors they lose did contribute, but GMU should have plenty of players ready to step up and contend in the competitive Colonial conference.

Under the leadership of coach Steve Alford, New Mexico has returned to the big tournament two out of the last three seasons, including in 2012. But two of the big reasons why the Lobos ran through the Mountain West tournament are gone. Without Drew Gordon and A.J. Hardeman, Alford will have to rely on an experienced backcourt to return for more March glory.

Could This Lead to a Cinderella?

When it comes to this event, the entry list hasn't exactly been top notch. In past years, there have been a couple of bigger names connected with the event. This time, however, there seems to be more of a balance with the "one-bid" conference programs. That may not be a bad thing.

Last November, Marquette, Virginia, and Drexel headlined the tournament going in. The story, though, came from the team that finished runner-up ... Norfolk State? You might remember the Spartans more for their upset of Missouri back in March. Well, if we had paid attention to the MEAC tournament champ, this wouldn't have been as big of a shock.

So could any of the four "smaller" schools pull off the same feat? Could be worth a look.

Great Alaska Shootout

As I stated in the first segment of this series, there used to be three locations you would look to for a tournament final in November. For 34 years, an unlikely northern city has been one of them. Just like Maui's Chaminade, the University of Alaska-Anchorage has had the privilege of hosting some of the most historically potent programs in the country. Schools such as Kansas, Arizona, and Purdue have been multiple participants in the past. But it's a new day in the world of these events.

The influx of new tourneys in destination locations (including Orlando, Anaheim, and Cancun) has thinned the pool of teams willing to head to the Far North to play in a four-day showcase. A couple of "Big Six" conference teams have trickled in to play. However, for the third time in the last five years, that isn't the case. None of this year's participants are affiliated with a major conference. So, besides the beautiful scenery of that area of the world, what is there to take in?

Three Reasons Why We Should Watch

Busting Moves

On the surface, this tournament has been set up as an early-style Bracket Busters. Representatives from several of the country's "one-bid' leagues, this could be an advantageous opportunity to gain some well-earned wins over some quality opponents.

An Intriguing Matchup

Looking at the first-round games in these tournaments, there's a game that intrigues me in this particular setting. Oral Roberts, who was a perennial favorite in the Summit League will take on Loyola Marymount, who look to return to contending status in the WCC. Both teams will experience some turnover. And the Golden Eagles will be gearing up for their first year in the Southland Conference. But I'd like to find out if either team can get a foothold that could launch them into their respective conference seasons.

The Chance of Some Magic

Over the last three years, college basketball had a few stories emerge out of the field in Anchorage. In 2009, it was the rise of Klay Thompson as a major scoring threat for Washington State. The year 2010 saw the return of St. John's with then-new head coach Steve Lavin. Last year, Murray State basically started the run to the NCAAs by beating Southern Miss, who ended up with their own redemption story in coach Larry Eustachy.

Who might grab a headline or two in 2012? It might be Belmont, who will start its first season in the Ohio Valley Conference after a long run of success in the Atlantic Sun. Could be Charlotte, who want to improve their outlook during their final season in the Atlantic-10. Or maybe Northeastern, trying to get back into the race in the CAA, could make an early statement. Whichever team gets out of Alaska with a tourney win, let's keep an eye on them through the season.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 3:16 PM | Comments (0)

Valentine, Like Queeg, Convicted Himself

This is not to suggest that any known or alleged president of Red Sox Nation should proclaim, "Our long national nightmare is over." But it is to suggest that the Red Sox and their minions can go to sleep tonight not having to wonder whom Bobby Valentine threw under the proverbial bus this time, if not shooting himself in the proverbial foot yet again over some actual or alleged slight or accusation.

It is also to suggest general manager Ben Cherington, who did not want Valentine after Terry Francona essentially resigned before he could be fired last offseason, has been as gracious as a man can be in assessing what was or wasn't until Valentine cashed his own check. You can only speculate what truly coursed Cherington's mind as he composed the statement by which Valentine's execution was announced Thursday:

"Our 2012 season was disappointing for many reasons. No single issue is the reason, and no single individual is to blame. We've been making personnel changes since August, and we will continue to do so as we build a contending club. With an historic number of injuries, Bobby was dealt a difficult hand. He did the best he could under seriously adverse circumstances, and I am thankful to him."

Numerous managers over numerous seasons have been dealt comparable hands. Most of them manage to resist the temptation to quell such fires with gasoline.

The absolute best Valentine could have done was to figure out a way to harness his tongue to the point where it coordinated with his mind before letting it wave, and to learn the lessons his failure to learn cost him clubhouses in Texas and New York in earlier generations. But he walked into a clubhouse fragile enough, barely recovering from that surrealistic pennant race collapse, and detonated a depth charge.

He walked into a fragile enough clubhouse, barely recovering from a surrealistic pennant race collapse, and detonated a depth charge. And it is fair to a certain extent to say that in one sense the Red Sox never saw it coming. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe isolates the point:

"Valentine often couldn't contain his emotions and said things he shouldn't have said. But that should not have been a surprise, because he has always been that way. He never deviated from who he was, as much as the Red Sox tried to suppress him.

"How could the Red Sox not have done their homework on Valentine? He has always ruffled feathers, always put his foot in his mouth, yet they seemed surprised."

Cafardo may not be quite right when he goes on to suggest the players preferred someone "more supportive and never critical — the way Francona was for eight seasons." Francona simply saw no point to airing out a player in public. He had reasons often enough to criticize a player but, if you didn't count Manny Ramirez's impossible-to-ignore public act, Francona inclined more toward approaching a player and speaking to him man to man.

It wasn't Francona's style to push a plunger on the air or in the press. It certainly wasn't Francona's style to pick unfounded feuds with any players, never mind particularly popular players. If Francona were to have noticed Kevin Youkilis's physical struggles early in the season, he would never have questioned Youkilis's heart. Not privately and certainly not publicly.

That isn't political correctness at play, as Cafardo might describe it. That's just plain sense.

Yes, there were instances in which you could say Valentine himself was undermined. He wasn't Cherington's choice no matter what team president Larry Lucchino propagated upon his hiring last winter. But there were instances enough before the season began that Valentine undermined himself. He wasn't happy about the coaching staff holdover, and the holdover coaches weren't happy with him, but he didn't seem to work all that arduously in bringing them aboard whatever his train might have been.

Then he had the audacity to suggest the coaching staff undermined him, the afternoon before the Red Sox put paid to this trainwreck of a season by letting the New York Yankees bury them alive Wednesday night, showing barely any semblance of pride enough to think at least about forcing the Empire Emeritus into a potential tiebreaker game. Or, if not that, considering the engaging Baltimore Orioles ended up on the wrong side against Tampa Bay, at least going home on the heels of just a plain old win.

"That figures," was all bullpen coach Gary Tuck would say when told of Valentine's the coaches-undermined-me remarks. Small wonder: Valentine, remember, took a nasty poke at pitching coach Bob McClure, when McClure needed to miss three weeks in a family emergency: "Bob McClure was on his two-week vacation — I'm sorry, not vacation, his two weeks away from the team," Valentine said on WEEI.

This is the same man, managing the New York Mets over a decade and a half ago, who took comparable cheap shots at pitcher Pete Harnisch, suffering clinical depression in the aftermath of quitting smokeless tobacco. The same manager who questioned Hideo Nomo's guts, when the struggling Nomo declined a starting assignment in a critical stretch drive game because he believed his record to that point didn't justify handing him the honour of such an important start.

How indeed could the Red Sox not have done their homework?

When they found a trading partner in Los Angeles and unloaded Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto for James Loney and prime prospects, there were those who saw it as removing not just a nuclear payroll weight but some of Valentine's actual or alleged most vocal critics. There were others who saw it as a signal that a major housecleaning to include Valentine — precisely when, who knew — had just begun.

Perhaps the one thing above all that you can say undermined Valentine fairly was the disabled list. Twenty-seven Red Sox went on it this season. When owner John Henry spoke in August, on a trip to Seattle in which enough thought he might be traveling to hand Valentine his head on a plate, Henry did say, "A lot has been written about injuries to key players this year. The impact of that on the Sox this year should not be discounted."

Fair enough. But the Yankees were bedeviled by injuries enough — and they won the American League East.

The Oakland Athletics were bedeviled by a few injuries, none more shocking than the line drive pitcher Brandon McCarthy took in the head — and they stole the American League West right out from under the Texas Rangers.

The Orioles, who looked at one point as though they'd steal the East right out from under the Yankees, had plenty of injury issues — and they still managed to pocket the number one wild card in the bargain while enjoying their first winning season since 1997.

The Atlanta Braves, whose own devastating September 2011 collapse could be dwarfed only by that of the Red Sox, sent 18 players to the disabled list this year — and they pocketed the number one National League wild card.

On none of those teams could you think of any player, any coach, with cause to believe, never mind to say aloud, that their manager had walked into a testy situation and detonated a bomb in the middle of it.

Of course the 2011 Braves didn't start to tunnel their way back out of their September cave-in by giving their manager what amounted to a choice between burying himself or being buried. Fredi Gonzalez not only lived to play another season but, as of this writing, he's got at least the chance to take a little revenge against the St. Louis Cardinals, who snuck into the National League's only wild card slot at the Braves' expense last year.

Valentine is an intelligent man. Even his most severe critics know that. But he left a huge opening the moment he was hired when he blurted out, unprompted, "I'm not the genius that I've heard people refer to me as." When he questioned Josh Beckett's game pacing — it sure didn't seem to be a problem when Beckett led a World Series-winning staff in 2007 — and then didn't seem to know when Beckett, coming back from an injury, would throw a bullpen session, and when he left Jon Lester in to take an eleven-run beating on a day Lester clearly didn't have his best stuff, his introductory press conference remark blasted back in blinding neon.

Before Wednesday's game, Valentine made a point of walking around the field during practice to talk to each player, handshakes and hugs included, and the players simply had to know it was goodbye. "It may have been his best moment with the Red Sox," ESPN's Buster Olney writes, "and it's unfortunate that it came at the very end, long after his future as manager had been decided."

As the old song hit said, "Too much, too little, too late." Valentine had in common with Captain Queeg a crew not intrinsically allied to him, an inability to forge the alliances he needed, and what proved a talent for convicting himself with his own testimony. Unlike Queeg, who collapsed during his first and only command, Valentine had a command record to which to refer, and those responsible for assigning him the one he's now lost didn't review the record carefully enough.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:57 PM | Comments (11)

October 5, 2012

Those A's, Dumb Enough to Win

As of 3:53 PM Pacific Daylight Time, October 3, 2012, when Michael Young's two-strike fly completed its near-perfect trajectory into the glove of Coco Crisp striding forward to haul it down, Oakland, California believes in miracles.

A team full of retreads, rookie starting pitchers, and the lowest payroll in the Show, who'd been as far back as thirteen games in a tough American League West when June ended, upended a company of Texas Rangers who'd held first place since the fourth day of the season, and stood all alone with the division crowns on their heads.

Forget Moneyball. These Athletics were put together with rubber bands, duct tape, paper clips, rubber cement, and Super Glue. And there was probably nobody, maybe even in one or two recesses of the Oakland clubhouse, willing to suggest that the A's were going anywhere much beyond the middle of the division at best, never mind dissipating the Texas tornado in the final regular season set and stealing the division from them in broad daylight.

The Rangers picked the wrong time to go 15-16, which is what they've done since September 1 and which is why they now settle for the second American League wild card. The second card. The Baltimore Orioles took the first when they couldn't beat the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox couldn't even think about beating the New York Yankees Wednesday night.

This isn't exactly the way the Rangers planned it. But they didn't plan to come to within one strike of winning last year's World Series twice and end up losing Games 6 and 7, either. And, surely, they didn't plan to come into Oakland this week having played one game over .500 since September 1, never mind spending their Bay Area week getting bushwhacked in three straight to lose the division they once seemed to have in the proverbial bank, either.

And they sure didn't plan on the A's committing police brutality upon them Wednesday afternoon, a 12-5 brutalization that only began when the A's showed one more time how right former reliever Mitch (Wild Thing) Williams was, on MLB-TV, the night before, when he gazed upon the A's having tied up the West and marveled, "They're like we were on the '93 Phillies. We weren't smart enough to know we weren't good enough."

In fact, the A's on Wednesday weren't smart enough to know the Rangers had them on the ropes, 5-1 in the middle of the fourth, with Ryan Dempster, the Rangers' marquee non-waiver trade deadline acquisition, looking for all the world as though he were on cruise control with not a care in the world but finishing what he started before handing off to his bullpen security.

This kind of dumb Oakland can live with. Brandon Moss, dumb enough to think he can wring Dempster for a lead-off walk. Josh Reddick, a Red Sox castoff, dumb enough to think he can hit one off the center field wall for an RBI double right behind Moss. Josh Donaldson, dumb enough to think he can push Reddick to third and Seth Smith, right behind Donaldson, dumb enough to think he can single up the pipe to push Reddick home, Donaldson to second, and Dempster out of the game in favor of Derek Holland, who got two quick enough outs and looked like he'd keep the Gold Top Kids to a 5-3 deficit the Rangers were sure to put out of reach soon enough.

Then comes Crisp, dumb enough to think he can drive one down and to the rear of the right field line to send home Donaldson and Smith with the tying runs. Stephen Drew, a non-waiver trade pickup from Arizona, dumb enough to think he can walk his way on. Yoenis Cespedes, dumb enough to think he can help himself to an extra base when Josh Hamilton on the dead run drops his pop to short-ish center, and Crisp and Drew dumb enough to score on the play.

By the time Moss grounded out to first to end the inning, the A's must have been dumb enough to believe anything was possible. Well, when you can bring off a spell including 53 of your wins won by rookie starting pitchers, maybe anything is possible.

And while Evan Scribner (who'd relieved starter A.J. Griffin after two innings) and four more Oakland pitchers shut the Rangers out the rest of the way, the A's were dumb enough to think a 7-5 lead against these Rangers was about as safe as a clownfish in the path of a barracuda. Derek Norris, who'd entered in that fourth as a pinch hitter for catcher George Kattaras, and pushed Donaldson to third and Smith to second with his ground out, was dumb enough an inning later to dump one into shallow center to send home Donaldson with what might have been an insurance run any other time.

Trouble was, these A's were dumb enough to believe you can never have enough insurance. The Rangers opened the bottom of the eighth with Alexi Ogando relieving Koji Uehara and Norris dumb enough to welcome Ogando to the party by sending a two-strike service over the left field fence. Crisp was dumb enough to wring himself a five-pitch walk and take second when Texas second baseman Ian Kinsler's miscue allowed, Kinsler losing the handle as he tried a shovel pass to launch a would-be double play, putting Drew on first in the bargain, before Cespedes, too, was dumb enough to wring himself a walk. Exit Ogando, enter Robbie Ross, and enter Moss, dumb enough to single up the pipe for two more runs and make it to second while Cespedes scored yet another run after Nelson Cruz overran the single in the first place.

They were dumb enough, in other words, to shake off the 5-run Ranger third as if to say, "Is that the best you've got?!?" And Grant Balfour, who drove home the first exclamation point Monday when he punched out the side to save it, was dumb enough to wrap two flies around a ninth-inning punch-out, including Young's loft to Crisp.

Two innings earlier, Ryan Cook, another of the A's kid corps (though at 25 he's a rather advanced kid), pitching a fifth consecutive game, was dumb enough to think it was no big deal for Adrian Beltre and Cruz to open with with a single and a double and second and third, no outs, getting Young to whack a ground out before punching out David Murphy and Mike Napoli to put a stop to that Texas threat.

It was the fourth time this year these A's were dumb enough to think they could come back and win after falling into a four-run hole. It was the 54th time a rookie (Scribner, who got a standing O when he came out of the game) earned the pitching win for these dummies. It was only the second day on the entire season that the A's ended the day with a piece of first place ... and that was on the second day of the season.

These A's just might be dumb enough to think they can go places from here, maybe even places beyond the division series. Or even the American League Championship Series. Reality says Berra's Law (it ain't over until it's over) remains intractable, of course, likewise Andujar's Law. (In baseball, there's just one word: you never know.)

But what do these A's, dethroning those Rangers, know? They've just fought the law. And the law lost.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 6:00 PM | Comments (0)

October 4, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 5

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Arizona @ St. Louis (+2½)

It's the current Cardinals versus the ex-Cardinals in the NFL Network's Thursday night matchup. Arizona remained undefeated with a comeback 24-21 win over the Dolphins, despite giving up 431 yards passing to Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill.

"Obviously," Ken Whisenhunt said, "Tannehill is not who we thought he was. But he let us off the hook with an overtime interception. By the way, if you took former Cardinals' coach Dennis Green, shaved him, shrunk him, dressed him in some Elvis Pressley hand-me-downs, and gave him one hit song, you'd have Cee Lo Green.

"We know the Rams will be pumped up. The city of St. Louis is still pissed that the Cardinals left St. Louis. And, since we're division rivals, they have to relive that pain once a year, when the St. Louis team leaves for Arizona."

The Rams shocked the Seahawks 19-13 last week, and are 2-2 in the suddenly competitive NFC West. Thursday night's game in the Edward Jones Dome is the biggest in St. Louis in years.

"I wouldn't call us 'The Greatest Show on Turf' just yet," Jeff Fisher said, "but we're moving in that direction. At best, we're mediocre. For now, just call us 'Half-Ass on Fake Grass.'

"Our two wins match our total from last season. Our two losses match our total from last year, after two games."

The Rams bust out of the gate with a quick score when Cortland Finnegan returns an interception for pay dirt. St. Louis builds a 10-0 lead, but Patrick Peterson strikes back for the Cardinals with a punt return in the second quarter.

Kevin Kolb's touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald clinches it for the Cards. Arizona wins, 23-13.

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh (-2½)

After a Week 4 bye, the Steelers return to action at Heinz Field against their Pennsylvania neighbors from the east. At 1-2, Pittsburgh desperately needs a win, or they will likely face a three-game hole in the AFC North.

"We'll likely have Troy Polamalu and James Harrison back," Mike Tomlin said. "We desperately need playmakers on defense. Harrison is useless on the sideline. We all know James can't do damage unless he's wearing his helmet.

"Polamalu will be called upon to monitor Michael Vick. Sure, Troy may be injury-prone, and the only thing well-conditioned about him is his hair, but he makes plays."

The Eagles head to Heinz Field with a 3-1 record after a 19-17 win over the Giants last Sunday night. For the first time this season, Philly did not commit a single turnover.

"I was worried we'd forgotten how to win games without turnovers," Vick said. "We'll have to play mistake-free to win in Pittsburgh. Of course, with Ben Roethlisberger and I in the same stadium, you likely won't hear the words 'mistake-free.'"

Pittsburgh wins, 20-19.

Green Bay @ Indianapolis (+7½)

The Packers bounced back from the debacle in Seattle with a narrow 28-27 win over the Saints. Defensive issues continue to be an issue for the Packers, as the Saints piled up 446 yards through the air.

"I can't blame our opponents for passing the ball," Mike McCarthy said. "They should. Just throw it up, and chances are, we, nor the officials, will offer any interference.

"Two weeks ago in Seattle, we were victimized with the home run of screw jobs, now famously known as the 'Golden Tate-r.' Last week, we faced the next worst thing, a 'Triplette' from referee Jeff Triplette. Luckily, there's only one of him, but he makes bad calls in three's."

The Colts are fresh off a bye week, and Andrew Luck is anxious to measure himself against one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers.

"I welcome the challenge," Luck said. "I've always wanted to be Rodgers. Not just because he's a great quarterback, but because he gets to practice against the Green Bay pass defense."

Prior to kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts present the referees a token of their appreciation, with each receiving a quart of Lucas Oil. McCarthy then makes NFL history, becoming the first coach to throw a challenge flag before the game starts, and the officiating crew's "greased palms" are overturned. The Packers get the calls, and Rodgers throws for 298 yards and 3 scores.

Green Bay wins, 33-27.

Cleveland @ NY Giants (-13)

The Giants' comeback attempt at Lincoln Financial Field ended in defeat when Lawrence Tynes' 54-yard field goal fell short with 15 seconds left. New York fell to 2-2 and now will look to rebound against the 1-3 Browns.

"Apparently," Tom Coughlin said, "second Tynes is not the charm. It was indeed a painful loss, but the Eagles have dominated us as of late. In fact, the Eagles call themselves 'John Mara,' because they 'own' us."

Cleveland's Brandon Weeden will face the Giants' talented front four, a group which sacked Michael Vick twice and pressured him on numerous other occasions.

"Unlike Vick," Weeden said, "I'm not known for my speed or elusiveness. Much like a 'changeup,' I'm slow and white."

The G-Men pass rush puts a hurting on Weeden, sacking him five times and leaving a "Brown" stain on the MetLife Stadium turf, which just happens to cover the stain of the Jets quarterback left from the previous week. No more Dirty Sanchez.

Eli Manning throws for 314 yards and 3 scores, and the Giants roll to a 34-16 win.

Atlanta @ Washington (+3)

The Falcons remained undefeated, overcoming the Panthers behind 369 yards passing from Matt Ryan and a game-winning field goal from Matt Bryant. At 4-0, the Falcons lead the Panthers and Bucs by three games, and the Saints by four.

"It's much too early to start thinking about division titles and what not," Mike Smith said. "Usually, we save our 'clinching' for later in the year, when our a-holes start tightening come playoff time.

"We've got something to prove on Sunday. The last time we played an NFC team on the road, we scored two points. Things will be different this time. We've taken the 'safety' off of our offense."

Mike Shanahan's Redskins are 2-2, and Robert Griffin III has renewed excitement in the nation's capitol with his unique blend of athleticism and leadership.

"He really knows how to toss the pill," Shanahan said. "No, I'm not talking about Joe Thiesman shilling for Super Beta Prostate pills. I'm talking about RG3's arm. It's John Elway-like. Because of RG3, pride in the Redskins, like a diseased prostate, is swelling."

The Atlanta offense sputters on its first two series, but clicks thereafter, and the Falcons pile up so much yardage in Washington, they're forced to pay Capitol gains taxes.

Atlanta wins, 34-27.

Miami @ Cincinnati (-4)

The Dolphins have lost consecutive overtime games to drop to 1-3, but could easily be 3-1 and atop the AFC East had Dan Carpenter converted potentially game-winning kicks in both of those OT losses.

"We've got to try and put that behind us," Joe Philbin said, "but it's not easy. If I could say one thing to Carpenter, I would tell him to keep his head up. If I could tell him two things, I would add 'Shanks for the memories' to that.

"Say what you will, but both of these teams are moving in the right direction. By that, I mean both teams have unloaded Chad Johnson."

Marvin Lewis' Bengals are 3-1, winners of three in a row following a week 1 blowout loss to the Ravens. Andy Dalton is the league's fifth-rated passer and has tossed 8 touchdowns this year.

"Dalton is showing why we got rid of Carson Palmer," Lewis said. "Not only with his play, but also by showing video of Raiders' games."

Cincinnati wins, 27-21.

Baltimore @ Kansas City (+7)

The 1-3 Chiefs are struggling, tied with the Raiders for last in the AFC West. Kansas City has fallen by at least 16 points in each of their three losses this year, and quarterback Matt Cassel has thrown 7 interceptions to jeopardize his starting position.

"Just to clarify," Romeo Crenel said, "it's 'Cassel' with one 'L,' not three. Matt is still my starter until I say otherwise. When Brady Quinn is number two on your depth chart, you think long and hard before going to your bench.

"I feel like we can move the ball on the Ravens' defense. They're not the feared Baltimore defense of a decade ago. Sure, their defensive coordinator is Dean Pees, but they don't scare the piss out of anyone."

The Ravens battled to a hard-fought 24-17 win over the Browns last Thursday, and now face a Chiefs' team in desperation mode.

"It's always tough to play in Arrowhead Stadium," Ray Lewis said. "That crowd really spearheads the Chiefs' effort. Hopefully, my use of the word 'spearhead' won't ruffle any feathers. If it does, I promise to make reparations."

See, the Ravens defense is so bad, even it's become "offensive." And that usually means an Ed Reed turnover recovery for a touchdown.

Baltimore wins, 30-24.

Seattle @ Carolina (-2)

The 2-2 Seahawks face a cross-country flight prior to their game in Charlotte, and look to rebound from their 19-13 loss in St. Louis last week.

"We've lost a couple of close games," Pete Carrol said. "We're 1-2 in games decided by six points or less, and 1-0 in games decided by incompetent referees. That was in the infamous Monday night game now known as the 'Puget Sounds Like B.S.'

"Russell Wilson is struggling. He's only 5'10," and I think his lack of height is hurting him. Maybe naming him starter so early was a bit 'shortsighted' on my part."

The Panthers are 1-3 after blowing a late lead in a 30-28 loss in Atlanta last week. Carolina failed to pick up a first down on their last possession, allowing the Falcons time to drive for the winning field goal.

"As one would expect from the Panthers," Ron Rivera, "we 'licked' ourselves. That's become a habit in the Panther organization. Just ask our cheerleaders."

The forecast calls for sunshine and pleasant temperatures in Charlotte on Sunday, which is good news for the Panthers, because Newton's a "fair weather" quarterback.

Carolina wins, 22-21.

Chicago @ Jacksonville (+4½)

Blaine Gabbert will face a fierce Bears' defense when the 3-1 Bears invade EverBank Field, a place that is perpetually a point of contention between pessimists and optimists, who can never decide if the stadium is half-empty or half-full.

"Blaine may be playing himself out of a starting job," Mike Mularkey said. "In his defense, he has played others into a job. Like Jack Del Rio."

The Bears defense dominated in a 34-18 win over the Cowboys on Monday night, picking off Tony Romo five times and returning two for touchdowns. Chicago, 3-1, owns a share of the lead in the NFC North.

"Hopefully," Lovie Smith said, "defense will carry this team. Lance Briggs played a heck of a game. His defensive intensity reminded me of Chicago great Dick Butkus. Offensively, Jay Cutler also reminded me of a 'dick.'"

Cutler gives the Bears and early 14-0 cushion with two scoring passes. Maurice Jones-Drew tries to put the Jags on his back, but tweaks his knee and has to sit out. Cutler then displays some of his best "offense" of the day, when he takes to Twitter from the sideline and calls MJD a "hypoquit," which is half hypocrite, half quitter.

Chicago wins, 24-13.

Denver @ New England (-7)

The Broncos tuned up for their trip to New England with a dominating 37-6 win over the Raiders. Peyton Manning was 30-of-38 for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns.

"Finally," Manning said, "it feels like the offense is on the same page with me. And that's understandable after a year with Tim Tebow. I'm not sure which page the Denver offense made it to last year, but I'm sure it had a chapter and a verse. In my book, scripture doesn't end with 'Amen;' it ends with a touchdown.

"I'm thrilled to return to Foxborough. I'm praying there's no precipitation in the forecast, and so are the Patriots. The wet paper sack that is their defense is already wet enough."

The Patriots dropped 52 points on the hapless Bills last week in their 52-28 romp in Buffalo. Tom Brady passed for 340 yards and the Pats rushed for 247 yards as a team.

"Two weeks ago," Bill Belichick said, "I put a hand on an official. That's one more than the Bills put on us.

"Of course, who am I to be critical of another team's defense? We surrendered 438 yards and 4 passing touchdowns to the Bills, utilizing our 'Bend and All But Break' defense."

Denver wins, 30-28.

Buffalo @ San Francisco (-8)

The 49ers waxed the Jets 34-0 at MetLife Stadium, as San Fran forced 4 Jets' turnovers and limited the Mark Sanchez-led offense to 145 total yards.

Up next for the 49ers are the 2-2 Bills, who turned the ball over 6 times in a 52-28 loss to the Patriots last week.

"We turned the tables on the Jets," Jim Harbaugh said. "We ran our own 'wildcat' offense with Colin Kapernick. He can do lots of things Tim Tebow can't, like contribute.

The Bills will need a stellar effort from their defense to hang with the 3-1 49ers. That means Mario Williams will need to anchor the Buffalo pass rush and create pressure in the backfield.

"Mario's got 1½ sacks so far this year," Chan Gailey said. "Apparently, that's enough to hold $100 million, and not enough to prevent comparisons to Albert Haynesworth."

The 49ers have five Super Bowl wins. The Bills have four Super Bowl losses. It's amazing that it's taken a regular-season game for them to meet.

San Fran wins, 34-21.

Tennessee @ Minnesota (-5½)

The Vikings are arguably the league's biggest surprise, holding a share of the NFC North lead at 3-1 after a 20-13 win over the Lions. The Vikes scored two special teams touchdowns, one on a kickoff return by Percy Harvin and the other a punt return by Marcus Sherels.

"It's amazing," Leslie Frazier said. "Not since Brett Favre has there been this much talk of 'returns' in Minnesota.

"This team is taking shape as a solid contender in the North. Adrian Peterson is back in form, Christian Ponder is showing great leadership, and Jerome Simpson, back from a drug suspension, adds another weapon to the offense. Simpson scored our only offensive touchdown of the day. Jerome hates for me to bring up sore subjects, but he again 'delivered one to the house.'"

The Titans were smashed by the Texans 38-14 and lost Jake Locker to a shoulder injury. Lost in the wreckage of defeat was an encouraging effort from Chris Johnson, who rushed for 141 yards.

"Let's not get too happy about Chris," Mike Munchak said. "He rushed for 141 yards in a blowout defeat. Still, he's yet to rush for any 'meaningful' yards."

Minnesota wins, 28-17.

San Diego @ New Orleans (-3½)

The Chargers are on top of the AFC West standings after manhandling the Chiefs 37-20 in Kansas City last week. The Chargers are 3-1 for the second straight year.

"Hopefully," Norv Turner said, "this 3-1 start will portend something other than a 5-7 finish. You know people are skeptical of a 3-1 start when they say 'We'll see what they're made of' when you're playing a winless team."

The Saints are 0-4 for the first time since brown paper bags were de rigueur in the Big Easy.

"It hasn't been a good 2012 for the Saints," Drew Brees said. "But I can make that a distant memory if I throw for a touchdown pass and break Johnny Unitas' record of 57 consecutive games with a scoring pass. I just wish Roger Goodell could be there to see it. There's no evidence to support him being there.

"The Chargers haven't played in the Superdome since 2008. That was on October 26th. So the Chargers are 0-1 in October games in the Superdome. More importantly, they're 0-0 in January and February games in the Superdome."

Brees snaps Unitas' record on his first pass of the game, a 68-yard strike to Lance Moore. The Chargers are in it for a half, but the fired-up Saints pull away for a 37-26 win.

Houston @ NY Jets (+7½)

New York suffered the indignation of a 34-0 shutout loss to the 49ers at MetLife Stadium. The Jets managed a paltry 145 yards of total offense and 8 first downs and were dominated in all phases of the game.

"Unfortunately for the Jets," said Houston defensive tackle J.J. Watts, "that's the good news. The bad news is the Texans are coming to town, and we have the NFL's best defense, and possibly the AFC's only defense.

"But we know the Jets' offense will be fired up at home to prove something. That's understandable, because the New York offense does some of its best work in their 'own territory.'"

Despite their pathetic showing last Sunday, the Jets are 2-2 and tied with Bills and Patriots atop the AFC East.

"I'd be surprised if we don't play better," Rex Ryan said, "but only because we can't play worse. And speaking of 'surprises,' this is a game between first place teams. We still share the lead in the AFC East, plus we've already got two division wins. As you can see, I like my outlook just as I like my feet — sugar-coated."

Arian Foster scores 2 touchdowns and the Texans' defense stifles the overmatched Jets' offense.

Houston wins, 31-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:50 PM | Comments (0)

New Playoff Structure a Swing and a Miss

Let's get right to the heart of the matter: while Bud Selig's new expanded playoffs has resulted in some extra hope in September, it has left open the potential for some serious competitive unfairness in October.

Consider the National League, where on Friday the Atlanta Braves will have to play a one-game playoff for their lives against the St. Louis Cardinals, which will have finished at least five games back in the standings of Atlanta despite playing in a much weaker division.

Now consider this — Instead of the full playoff series Atlanta would have earned in previous years, Chipper Jones' final Major League Baseball game could be a sudden death match-up against Kyle Lohse (16-3 with NL top five ERA and WHIP at 2.86 and 1.09, respectively).

Seem fair?

Or consider the American League. The final race for the AL East between the Yankees and Orioles, combined with the A's and Rangers in the West, made for some exciting scoreboard watching these past few weeks. And in previous years, one of those three teams would have found themselves on the outside looking in, which would have sucked for them, but that's baseball. In 1993, the 103-win Giants missed the playoffs behind the 104-win Braves in the pre-realignment NL West.

Now the Yankees, Orioles, A's, and Rangers all make it, but not really. Baltimore, on the heels of an incredible resurgence, a 162-game grind up the ladder of relevance, may live their playoff dream for a paltry nine innings. That's it. One night only. Thanks for coming. Enjoy the winter. See you in February.

That's not playoff baseball. That's just-the-tip baseball.

Many (Jayson Stark) will complain about the ridiculous scheduling Selig's new idea will bring, and that's all well and fine. With 48 hours before the one-game playoff, we still didn't even know which of the two AL teams would be in the game. But the far greater issue is that baseball just doesn't fit in a one-game-winner-take-all package.

Baseball is a marathon of ups and downs, twists and turns. It's not like football, where talent is far more likely to prevail in an all-in situation. Baseball playoff series are about match-ups and bullpens and bloopers and bad hops. One game is not necessarily indicative of a team's true abilities. Sometimes that ball just doesn't fall your way, but those things have a tendency to even out over a full series.

In a one-game series, there is no evening out. There is just a few hours of play, and you better hope the gods of luck are with you that day, because everything you've done over the past eight months could come down to a broken-bat bleeder that somehow finds the hole. It's one thing if that happens in a Game 7, where each team has won three and earned their way. But this ain't that.

The 1927 Yankees lost 44 games, including several to Boston, which went 51-103 that season. Obviously the Red Sox would not have made a hypothetical one-game playoff, but the point is that in baseball, more so than any other sport, any team can beat any other team in one game.

The Cardinals don't belong in this year's playoffs. They've had an incredibly inconsistent year and will finish with 88 wins at best. (Oddly, that's actually better than their 2011 and 2006 World Series teams.) But more than this being about St. Louis, this is about Atlanta. The Braves deserve a full series, one where having a deep bullpen and great defense actually matter. Those things show up over five or seven games. Over one? Maybe, maybe not.

Doesn't quite seem fair.

Maybe it will all work out and the Braves will advance. But maybe the Cardinals' bats are just hot that day, and Lohse works through an Atlanta offense that is by far the worst of the five NL playoff teams.

Bye, Chipper. Sorry it had to end this way. See you in Cooperstown.

Selig has made risky changes to the game in his tenure, and you can argue he's had more hits than misses. But this one seems like a step too far.

I guess we'll see Friday night.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 10:45 AM | Comments (2)

October 3, 2012

2012 MLB Awards

Major League Baseball has entered the month of October and players and fans are filled with aspirations and dreams of World Series victory …well, unless your team has been statistically eliminated since late August, in which case you're probably thinking about 2015, the NFL replacement refs, or grumbling about the NHL lockout.

The 2012 MLB season was rather obviously an interesting one. It saw the destruction of the Boston Red Sox, the semi-destruction of the Philadelphia Phillies, the rise of the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals, the almost-but-not-quite rise of the Pittsburgh Pirates, seven no-hitters, three perfect games, a potential Triple Crown hitter, and the glory that is Mike Trout. All in all, it was a very good year for baseball and the playoffs haven't even started yet.

Though the winners won't be announced until after the World Series (something I despise), voters will be filling out their ballots before the playoffs begin for the annual awards we all love to argue about. So without further ado, here's where my votes would go if I had votes to cast.

AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout

We might as well start with the most obvious one, right? Trout's numbers are MVP worthy, but we'll get to that argument later. The reality that he turned 21 in August makes the numbers even more special. This is a young man who has the potential to be something extremely special. Sure, he has cooled off in August and September. But even so, this kid has the potential to be as good as Willie Mays. Potential mind you…potential.

Trout will obviously win, but honorable mentions can be given to Scott Diamond, Yu Darvish, Jarrod Parker, and Yoenis Cespedes.

NL Rookie of the Year : Wade Miley

I admit that Bryce Harper has a legitimate shot to win this, but purely because the competition is a bit slim. Miley (as of Monday morning) is 16-11 with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and 134 strikeouts. That is a solid number two pitcher on most teams and potentially an ace on a few. I think Harper will probably rise higher than Miley in the long run, but I'd really like to see Harper not win.

AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter

One of two obvious choices here. In the toughest division in the American League, and arguably in all of baseball, Showalter developed this team into serious World Series contenders. No disrespect to Bob Melvin of the Oakland Athletics who also deserves this award. I just think that the Orioles had a more difficult road and have performed slightly better which gives Showalter the edge.

NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson

Despite how you view Johnson's handling of Stephen Strasburg, you must admit that the Nationals out-shined everyone's expectations this season. Not only has Johnson managed to put together perhaps the best team in baseball, but he's been able to manage some major young talent and keep them (for the most part) in check. Bryce Harper started out with some pretty idiotic antics, but Harper has kept playing hard and limited his childish moments in the latter half of the season. I think Johnson deserves at least a bit of the credit there.

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Edwin Encarnacion

Adam Dunn will be the logical choice here, but I can't justify that. Dunn is still in many respects a terrible player. In 2012, he has recorded more strikeouts than any other season (218 as of Monday morning), his .204 average is worse than every other season except 2011 (.159), and — this just staggers the imagination — he has struck out more times than combined hits and walks. And many people will vote for this guy for Comeback Player of the Year, all because he hit 41 home runs in 2012 instead of 11.

No, thank you. I'd vote for Edwin Encarnacion. He had a mediocre year in 2011 batting .272 with 17 home runs and 55 runs batted in. Not only has he improved those totals in 2012 to be a top-five MVP candidate, but he has more than doubled his home runs and RBI and nearly doubled his walk total. In fact, looking at his 2012 statistics as compared to the rest of his career, I'm a little suspicious of this guy. But he's still a better choice than Dunn!

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Ryan Braun

A rather strange choice, you might be thinking. Well, yes it is. I don't feel right giving Braun the MVP award, but think about the offseason Braun had. He is named as a user of PEDs. He is suspended 50 games. He appeals and fights. He wins. Hardly anybody outside of Wisconsin believes him. He goes out and has another MVP season without Prince Fielder. I don't think Braun win will MVP (as you'll see below), but he deserves some recognition for overcoming a pretty horrendous offseason, regardless of his guilt.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

To me, the Cy Young awards are by far the hardest to choose. The American league has six or seven guys who could win. To me Jered Weaver, David Price, and Verlander are the front runners. I give it to Verlander over the other two for a few reasons: firstly, the Tigers will make the playoffs while the Angels and Rays will just miss the playoffs. Secondly, Verlander has pitched significantly more innings and has six complete games. Finally, he has more strikeouts than anybody in all of baseball.

The only statistics that make Weaver and Price stand out are the 20-4 and 20-5 records, respectively. Verlander's record of 17-8 is nothing to sneeze at, but he lost five of those games before the end of June. In those five losses, his team scored a total of 9 runs. A run like that can happen to the best of pitchers. I don't know who will end up winning, but I know it will be close and I'll have a hard time saying anything against Weaver, Price, or Verlander.

NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey

I think this decision might be harder than in the American League! Again there are six or seven, maybe even eight pitchers who could win this award. I think your front runners are Dickey, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain, and Johnny Cueto.

Why go with Dickey? He is in the top two in every major pitching category except WHIP in which he is third (by 0.01). No one else can get close to claiming that. The fact that he plays for the Mets might make people gun shy and lean toward Gonzalez, Cain, or Cueto and I can't blame them for that.

To me, the dark horse of the Cy Young race is Kyle Lohse who is quietly having a magnificent year at 16-3 with an ERA of 2.86, and WHIP of 1.09. Sadly, with so much competition above him, I wonder if Lohse will get many fifth place votes.

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera

Of course there are plenty of Mike Trout lovers out there who will decry Cabrera winning, but how can you ignore a guy who is so close to the Triple Crown? If he wins it, there's no way to refuse. If Trout hadn't slowed down so much in August and kept his average above .340, I think he'd have the edge, but the reality is Trout's only advantages over Cabrera are runs scored, stolen bases, and fielding ability. I think Cabrera covers those with far more runs batted in, home runs, and far fewer strikeouts.

NL MVP: Buster Posey

It probably won't be the popular pick, but Posey is batting .337 while taking the vast majority of his at bats as a catcher. Let us remember that as the catcher, not only is Posey giving far more physical energy than any other position player, but he is also a major contributing factor in the success of the Giants pitching. Matt Cain and company are a pretty formidable rotation, especially considering two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum is the worst pitcher in the rotation right now.

I think more than anything, Posey kept the bats hot for the Giants even after Melky Cabrera was suspended. How many other teams could have survived one of their best two hitters being suspended and stayed hot for the final two months of the season? Not all that many.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 3:03 PM | Comments (12)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 29

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — A bold fuel strategy boosted Keselowski to the driver's seat at Dover, and he held off Jeff Gordon to win the AAA 400. It was Keselowki's second win of the Chase, and put him in the lead of the Sprint Cup point standings, where he is 5 ahead of Jimmie Johnson.

"While many of my rivals needed fuel," Keselowski said, "the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge didn't. I guess it's true what they say: Miller Lite is less filling.'"

2. Denny Hamlin — Along with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch, Hamlin dominated for much of Sunday's AAA 400, but was forced to pit with 10 laps remaining. Hamlin finished ninth and is now 16 points down to points leader Brad Keselowski.

"I say this with my eyes staring squarely at my gas-guzzling Toyota engine," Hamlin said. "'This sucks.' Ironically, a lack of gas took the air out of my race."

3. Jimmie Johnson — Forced into fuel conservation mode late in the race, Johnson held on and finished fourth after avoiding the late fuel stops that affected much of the field. He fell out of the points lead and now trails Brad Keselowski by 5.

"As a five-time Sprint Cup champion," Johnson said, "I feel qualified to say that I'm not the only driver that's 'five behind.'"

4. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer came home ninth at Dover, scoring his third consecutive top-10 finish of the Chase. He moved up one spot to fourth in the point standings and trails Brad Keselowski by 25.

"As the driver holding the fourth spot in the point standings," Bowyer said, "my task at hand is clear: to make sure this doesn't become just a three-man battle for the Sprint Cup."

5. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished second in the AAA 400, his third runner-up finish in the last five races. He is now 10th in the point standings, 48 out of first.

"I was hoping that Brad Keselowski would run out of gas," Gordon said. "But once again, he proved that he's got a 'reserve' that no one else does."

6. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished three laps down in 15th at Dover. He is fifth in the point standings, 32 out of first.

"Danica Patrick's coming to Sprint Cup full-time next year," Kahne said. "That's a reason to celebrate for womankind. I'd tell Danica to take a victory lap, but she'd likely end up a lap behind."

7. Tony Stewart — Stewart fell a lap down early at Dover and never recovered, finishing three laps down in 20th. He is now fifth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 32 out of first.

"It's not looking good for a defense of my 2011 Cup title," Stewart said. "It appears 'Smoke will be passing the torch,' words which are sure to raise the eyebrows of the enforcers of NASCAR's drug policy.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished two laps down and finished a disappointing 11th, losing further ground to the points leaders. In three Chase races, Earnhardt has yet to post a top-five result.

"Much like a bootleg screen print t-shirt of my likeness," Earnhardt said, "my chances at the Sprint Cup title are 'fading fast.' It seems the only 'miraculous comeback' you'll get from me is an incredibly clever retort to someone critical of my championship ability."

9. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex remained solid in the Chase For The Cup, scoring his second top-10 finish with a sixth in the AAA 400. He improved two places in the point standings to eighth, 42 out of first.

"There are two 'Junior's' in the Chase," Truex said, "and it looks like neither has a chance to win the Cup. Junior should know better than anyone that it takes 'Seniority' to win a championship."

10. Kyle Busch — Busch led 302 of 400 laps at Dover, but relinquished the lead for a costly fuel stop late in the race. The stop cost him a lap and he finished seventh.

"While fuel mileage issues left of lot of us in 'neutral,'" Busch said, "Brad Keselowski must have been stuck in 'reverse,' because he surely 'backed' in to the win at Dover."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:02 AM | Comments (0)

October 2, 2012

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The Pro Football Hall of Fame released its list of nominees for the Class of 2013. My favorite 25 to advance: Larry Allen, Morten Andersen, Tiki Barber, Bobby Beathard, Tim Brown, LeRoy Butler, Cris Carter, Don Coryell, Terrell Davis, Henry Ellard, Kevin Greene, Joe Jacoby, Joe Klecko, Jonathan Ogden, Bill Parcells, Art Rooney Jr., Steve Sabol, Clark Shaughnessy, Will Shields, Michael Strahan, Paul Tagliabue, Herschel Walker, Aeneas Williams, Ron Wolf, George Young.

* Washington kicker Billy Cundiff was cut by the Ravens for being unreliable on field goals. This week in Tampa, he made the game-winner, but missed three others, including a chip-shot 31-yarder. Cundiff is 6/10 on FGs this year, with the most misses in the league and the worst FG%. He's great on kickoffs.

* My favorite thing Jon Gruden has ever said: "I don't know about this music. I kind of feel like I'm on a hayride."

* Kudos to FOX for restoring starting lineups to the broadcast, and for covering the end of the Falcons/Panthers game.

* The Texans' defense lost Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, and it's better than ever. Bravo, Wade Phillips.

***

The NFL does a great job of promoting October as Breast Cancer Awareness Month. You can buy pink stuff at nfl.com/pink, or go to charities like Breast Cancer Fund and The American Breast Cancer Foundation and support their efforts directly.

As we jump into this week's power rankings, brackets show last week's rank.

1. Houston Texans [1] — Scored as many touchdowns on defense (2) as the Titans did on offense. They haven't played the hardest schedule in the world, but the Texans have won three of their four games by more than 20 points. They easily lead the NFL in point differential (+70).

2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — In his ninth season and 120th game, Michael Turner scored his 58th career rushing touchdown, and his 1st career receiving touchdown. Speaking of firsts, Matt Ryan was sacked a career-high 7 times against Carolina. However, Ryan also showed again why they call him Matty Ice. The Falcons took over at their own 1-yard line, down 28-27, with under a minute left ... and Ryan immediately completed a 59-yard bomb to Roddy White to set up the game-winning field goal.

3. Arizona Cardinals [3] — Darnell Dockett didn't play, Ryan Williams rushed for just 26 yards, Kevin Kolb got sacked 8 times and tossed 2 interceptions, and Miami's Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline nearly re-wrote the record books. They won anyway, mostly because they generated 4 turnovers (2 INT, 2 fumbles). Adrian Wilson, back from injury, had a big game (7 solo tackles, 3 passes defended, sack, forced fumble).

4. San Francisco 49ers [6] — Not as dominant as the 34-0 final score suggests, but they nearly tripled New York's first downs (26-9), including 16 rushing first downs, and gave up nothing defensively. Sunday's win marked the 31st shutout in franchise history, including two in 20 games under Jim Harbaugh. The offense remains merely adequate. Think fast: who was the last Niners QB to pass for 300 yards in a game? Troy Smith, Week 10 of the 2010 season. Who was the last Niners QB to pass for 4 TDs in a game? Jeff Garcia, in 2003.

5. New England Patriots [7] — Two 100-yard rushers and two 100-yard receivers against Buffalo. The Patriots scored 45 points in the second half, including 31 in the fourth quarter, and at one point scored touchdowns on five consecutive drives. All this without Logan Mankins, Aaron Hernandez, or Julian Edelman, all of whom missed the game with injuries.

6. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Thursday night heroes were Anquan Boldin and Haloti Ngata. Thursday night duds were pass rusher Paul Kruger, left guard Ramon Harewood, and kick returner Deonte Thompson. Kruger committed a selfish personal foul that prevented the Ravens from running out the clock, and could have cost them the game. Harewood repeatedly got beat, and is clearly the weak link on the offensive line. Thompson ran the opening kickoff of the second half out of the end zone, from 9 yards deep. He made it back to the 11. Not only is that 9 yards of valuable field position, but kickoff returns are the most dangerous play in football, and you can keep yourself and your teammates safer by taking a knee. Kick returners want to return kicks, but Thompson's decision, at the pro level, is unforgivable.

7. Green Bay Packers [4] — The replacement refs nearly stole another game from them. They failed to call an obvious offensive pass interference on Marques Colston's touchdown catch, and a clear fumble by Darren Sproles was ruled down by contact, putting the game in jeopardy. These things would never happen with a qualified, experienced referee like Jeff Triplette.

8. Chicago Bears [11] — Lovie Smith improved to 8-2 on Monday Night Football. The Bears lead the NFL in takeaways (14), and they scored two defensive TDs in Dallas. This might be the best defense in the league. They're 3-1, with all three wins by at least 16 points.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — I hate early-season byes, but this may have been good timing for the Steelers, who are expected to return Rashard Mendenhall, Troy Polamalu, and James Harrison when they take the field in Week 5.

10. Philadelphia Eagles [10] — Plagued by early-season turnovers (12 in three games), they held onto the ball Sunday night and edged the defending Super Bowl champions, though Andy Reid almost blew the game with his "icing the kicker" nonsense. I get the sense that conventional wisdom is finally beginning to turn against this ridiculous practice. Not because it's unsporting (though it is unseemly), but because it backfires at least as often as it accomplishes anything. In Reid's defense, it does carry the added benefit of wasting everybody's time.

11. Denver Broncos [12] — Ate up Oakland's laughable defense, and won by the largest point spread (31) in the teams' last 100 meetings. The Raiders won by 45 as recently as 2010, but Denver hadn't won by more than 30 since October 1962. The Broncos' brutal schedule — they've already played the Texans and Falcons — continues with road games at New England and San Diego. The team has to feel good about its chances if it can go into the bye at 3-3.

12. San Diego Chargers [15] — They began 3-1 last season, too, but went 8-8 and missed the playoffs. They're 2-0 in the division, and 2-0 on the road, but got blown out in their only game against a team with a winning record. I'm not ready to crown them yet. The defense (6 takeaways against Kansas City) looks better this season, but this team isn't a contender without better play from the offense.

13. Seattle Seahawks [9] — People forget what a different team this is on the road. The Seahawks are 2-0 in Seattle and 0-2 away. Since CenturyLink Field opened in 2002, the Seahawks are 53-29 at home (.646), but 30-52 on the road (.366). In the post-Holmgren era, 2009-present, the Seahawks are 15-11 in Seattle (.577) and just 6-20 away (.231). CenturyLink is a notoriously loud stadium, and Seattle provides the longest road trips, both for themselves and for opponents, in the league.

14. Cincinnati Bengals [17] — Lead the NFL in sacks (17). They got to Helpless Blaine Gabbert 6 times in Week 4, including 2 sacks by Geno Atkins, who leads the team (5).

15. New York Giants [14] — Almost three times as many rushing first downs in wins (14) as losses (5). Andre Brown was the leading rusher in both wins, and Ahmad Bradshaw in both defeats. The Giants are 0-2 in division games.

16. Dallas Cowboys [13] — Trent Dilfer noted Monday that they routinely seem to compound mistakes with more mistakes. Twelve active quarterbacks have thrown 5 INTs in a game, a list that now includes Tony Romo twice, though I still don't understand how 4 picks and a fumble became 5 picks. He wasn't as bad as either stat implies, but did seem to fall apart in the second half, compounding mistakes.

17. Buffalo Bills [16] — Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the NFL in both touchdowns (12) and interceptions (7). Technically, he's 2nd in INTs, but that's because Monday night's official scorer either doesn't like Tony Romo or can't tell the difference between a fumble and an interception.

18. Minnesota Vikings [26] — Only 4 passing first downs in their victory over the Lions. Adrian Peterson hasn't scored since Week 1, but he did record his first 100-yard rushing game of the season.

19. St. Louis Rams [22] — Danny Amendola leads the NFL in receptions (31), but the Rams have been out-rushed in every game this season. They'll put their 2-0 home record on the line in Week 5's Thursday night game, when the Cardinals return to St. Louis.

20. Carolina Panthers [24] — Cam Newton in Weeks 1 and 3: 10 rushing yards, 61.9 passer rating, 2 TDs, 5 turnovers. Newton in Weeks 2 and 4: 157 rushing yards, 124.1 rating, 5 TDs, 1 turnover. Fantasy owners, Mr. Newton is to be played only in even-numbered weeks.

21. Washington Redskins [28] — Under Mike Shanahan, they've won more than twice as many road games (9-10) as home games (4-13). Washington is tied for last in the NFL in third-down percentage (26%). The team is +7 in turnovers, but if that ever evens out, this club is going to lose a lot of games.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [20] — The Bucs have lost three in a row, mostly because of offensive inconsistency. Doug Martin ranks 17th in rushing yardage (247), behind a quarterback (Robert Griffin III, 252 yds). Martin is averaging 3.5 yds/att and has only scored 1 touchdown.

23. Detroit Lions [18] — Allowed KR and PR touchdowns for the second week in a row. Detroit and Oakland are the only teams not to intercept a pass this season.

24. New York Jets [19] — Lost 34-0, and the team is clearly in a bad place, but probably not quite as bad as it seemed on Sunday, when injuries turned 2 first downs into 2 lost fumbles, one of them returned for a San Francisco touchdown. Mark Sanchez is the 20th quarterback since realignment to record a completion percentage below 50% in the first four weeks of the season. The worst was JaMarcus Russell in 2009 (39.8%). Sanchez is at 49.2%.

25. Miami Dolphins [27] — Lost in overtime for the second week in a row. Ryan Tannehill passed for 431 yards, Brian Hartline caught 12 passes for 253 yards, and Cameron Wake got 4.5 sacks. Hartline's 455 receiving yards lead the NFL, and are the third-most ever by a Miami Dolphins receiver in the first four games.

Hartline's career highs are 43 receptions and 615 yards (both 2010). This year, he has a decent shot to double those.

26. Oakland Raiders [21] — Allowed more than 30 points for the third week in a row, and they still can't get the run game going. Opponents have more than twice as many rushing yards (514) as the Raiders (243), with three times as many rushing first downs (30-10) and five times as many rushing TDs (5-1). Darren McFadden is averaging 3.5 yards per carry, and the team has 1 rushing TD in four games. There's been a lot of talk about Chris Johnson's early-season struggles in Tennessee, but if you were a fantasy football owner, would you rather have Johnson or McFadden right now? DMC broke a 64-yarder in Week 3, but other than that he's got 56 carries for 135 yards (2.4 avg) and no touchdowns. Even with the long run, he's on pace for 804 yards, and his average is awful. The Raiders have been outscored by almost 2-to-1 (125-67), and their -58 point differential is 2nd-worst in the league.

27. New Orleans Saints [29] — Four losses, but all by single-digits, and with such an explosive offense, they're always a threat. The defense, of course, is a sieve. Fantasy football players, start all your Chargers in Week 5.

28. Tennessee Titans [23] — They've played three pretty good teams, and lost by more than 20 to all three. Their lone win, over Detroit, was the strangest game of the year.

29. Kansas City Chiefs [25] — Committed five first-half turnovers, and lost by more than two touchdowns for the third time this season. Matt Cassel (5 TD, 7 INT) has basically the same passer rating (70.4) as Mark Sanchez (69.6), but he's been sacked twice as often (13-6) and lost more fumbles (3-1).

30. Cleveland Browns [30] — They were outmatched in Baltimore, though kicker Phil Dawson hit three field goals of 50 yards or more. The Browns have never beaten the Ravens in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era (0-9).

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — Last in yards per game (254.3) and points per game (15.5). The Steelers and Colts, who have only played three games apiece, both have more offensive yardage this season than Jacksonville.

32. Indianapolis Colts [32] — Head coach Chuck Pagano has been diagnosed with a treatable form of leukemia and is expected to miss a month or two. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will serve as interim head coach. Fans around the league wish the best to coach Pagano.

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Posted by Brad Oremland at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)

October 1, 2012

Is the Offensive Explosion an Omen?

Unfortunately for me, as a college football fan, I spent most of the day with my wife looking at new carpeting and flooring for our house and buying a new dishwasher. Don't get me wrong, I love my wife and was glad to spend quality time with her, and honestly the only game I had real interest in was the Oregon/Washington State game. I'm an alum of one (Go Cougs!) and have a son attending the other. So I wasn't too concerned about seeing any of the other games of the day.

I only say "unfortunately" because, boy, what a day of college football that I missed.

After seeing some of the scores and highlights from the games earlier in the day, it was clear that I missed one of the biggest days scoring-wise in college football ever. Now, I haven't had the time to go back through the record books to see other prolific scoring years, but a full third of the games played had combined scores of 70 points or more. That's ridiculous!

Of course, the highest scoring game of the weekend was the West Virginia/Baylor shootout in which a FBS record 19 offensive touchdowns were scored, ending in a 70-63 score. But there were others as well: Kent State 45, Ball State 43; Miami (Ohio) 56, Akron 49; Tulsa 49, UAB 42; Purdue 51, Marshall 41; Georgia 51, Tennessee 44; Fresno State 52, San Diego State 40. And there were a half-dozen other games with similar scores.

With all this offensive production on both sides of the field, could this be an omen of things to come in college football? Wide-open offenses force defenses to be less aggressive at the line of scrimmage, which in turn provides quarterbacks more time to either get the ball downfield or to keep it themselves for running yardage. It also allows bigger holes for running backs because defenses aren't rushing as many people, providing opportunities for big yards from the backfield.

In the Oregon/WSU game, the Ducks rushed only three linemen most of the game (although they did blitz a few times, bringing as many as seven on occasion). The Cougars, on the other hand, rushed five on most plays and got torched on several passing plays simply because there weren't enough people in coverage.

Even the relatively high scoring game between Georgia and Tennessee is an anomaly in the normally defense-dominated SEC. Sure, many of those teams can score tons of points against lesser opponents, but the 21-0 BCS Championship Game last year between Alabama and LSU was more of the norm than not. So if two SEC teams can post 95 points combined, what does that mean for the rest of the college football world that is much more offense-minded?

I think we'll see lots of NCAA scoring records fall in the next few years. College football is just as much an entertainment commodity as its pro counterpart, and it is offense that gets crowds fired up and makes for good television. Many people thought last year's BCS championship was boring because there wasn't much offense. Personally, I like defensive games as long as the offense isn't making mistakes. But the trend seems to be heading toward even more prolific offenses than what we have now, and that's hard to imagine.

Speaking of pro football, it also sometimes begins to take on the trends seen in the college game (remember the run-and-shoot?). I even saw a NFL team — it was either Carolina or Washington, I don't recall — run an actual triple-option play. I was shocked! NFL coaches and GMs for years have told us that the option just wasn't an option in pro football; defenses are too big, fast and smart for the option to be successful at the pro level. Yet I saw one option play ran successfully in an NFL game. So could that mean that Chip Kelly's hurry-up offense will become the standard in the NFL? We're already seeing some teams use a variation of that — Seattle is one example — so it stand to reason that it will.

The bottom line is that the days of the 10-6 slugfest could be coming to an end. The Big 10 was always noted for being the smashmouth conference of college football, the true throwback league that relied on three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust strategy. I mean, when was the last time Purdue put 51 points on the board in a football game? If more teams and conferences begin to go the way of what is happening in the Pac-12 and Big-12, then I wouldn't be surprised if we rarely see a team score less than 20 in any game.

A final argument, though, that could be made for this offensive explosion not becoming the norm in college football comes down to the old adage that defense wins championships. The last six BCS champions have come from the defensive SEC and it looks like a seventh in a row will come from there as well (unless Alabama or LSU have a hiccup along the way). So maybe this weekend of monster scoring games was just a blip on the radar, and maybe defense does rule the day in the end. But at least it's fun to watch games where the final scores look more like high school basketball games than football, and it creates great conversation when trying to predict how many points the Ducks will put up in the first quarter.

So enjoy the high offensive output now because once coaches realize that "the best offense is a good defense," we could see a return to the grind 'em out type games of the past. After all, isn't retro all the rage?

Posted by Adam Russell at 1:54 PM | Comments (0)