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September 27, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 4

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-12)

Justin Tucker's 27-yard field goal on the game's final play lifted the Ravens to a satisfying 31-30 win over the Patriots on Sunday night, somewhat avenging Baltimore's AFC title game loss last year.

"There were a lot of controversial calls in the game," John Harbaugh said. "Heck, we may have won the game because of one. But I would never think of putting my hands on an official, except to thankfully embrace him.

"Bill Belichick overreacted by going after an official, and the NFL responded with a stern reprimand. It all gives new meaning to the term 'officially charged with a time out.'

The Browns are the AFC's last remaining winless team, and it will take quite an effort to take down the AFC North-leading Ravens.

"I think we can score on the Ravens," Pat Shurmur said. "The Pats moved the ball mostly at will. Did you see that streaker at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday night? The Ravens' defense didn't get near him. He was untouchable."

They're calling the game the "Hate Art Modell/Love Art Modell" bowl, in honor of the man who brought football to Cleveland and Baltimore. Modell will certainly be looking down on Thursday night's proceedings, or up if you're a Browns fan.

Ray Rice rushes for 149 yards and 2 scores, and the Ravens avoid the let down with a 27-12 win.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-6)

Cam Newton was awful in Carolina's 36-7 loss to the Giants last Thursday, and Steve Smith let him know about it. Newton tossed 3 interceptions and pouted on the sideline for much of the fourth quarter.

"Who, besides Panthers cheerleaders, doesn't need a tongue-lashing in Carolina?" Smith said. "Cam was a good sport about it and thanked me, for not punching him. He now knows that the opposite of 'upbeat' is 'beat up.'

"In some parts of Charlotte, it's often a necessity that you 'get down,' but not at Bank of America Stadium on a Thursday night in front of 70,000 plus fans who came to see you and wished they hadn't. Cam owes it to the fans. And by 'it,' I mean a refund."

After whipping the Chargers 27-3 last week, the Falcons are one of only two unbeatens in the NFC. In consecutive weeks, Atlanta has ousted the teams led by Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers.

"Ask me who the NFC's best team is," Mike Smith said, "and I'll give you the 'bird.' If you have to ask me twice, I'll give you the 'Dirty Bird.'

"Offense is the name of the game in Atlanta now. That came to me in a revelation last year, just minutes after we scored two points in a playoff loss to the Giants. What's worse is the defense scored those two."

The Panthers have had ten days to address the defensive problems that plagued them against the Giants. In a strange twist, it was a receiver named "Ramses" who was the source of the plague, and not the victim. Just imagine the severity of the plague that strikes the Panthers from receivers named "Roddy" and "Julio." It will be of bubonic proportions.

Matt Ryan throws for 326 yards and 4 touchdowns and the Falcons move to 4-0 with a 35-24 win.

New England @ Buffalo (+3½)

After Week 1's blowout loss to the Jets, the Bills have struck back with two straight wins, the last a 24-14 win at Cleveland. The visiting Patriots will provide Buffalo's stiffest test of the year when they invade Rich Stadium on Sunday.

"Our goal is to pressure Tom Brady," Chan Gailey said. "That's what we're paying Mario Williams 'handsomely' to do. $100 million will make most people do a lot of things. As of yet, it hasn't made Mario do a lot of sack dances.

"Brady had a good day in Baltimore. However, it sounded like Brady had a rough day there. Of course, it only sounded like that because Brady is contractually obligated to say 'UGG!' whenever he's hit."

The Patriots lost a dramatic 31-30 decision to the Ravens on Sunday night, and now New England is 1-2 and below .500 for the first time since 2003. Furious at the officiating, Bill Belichick confronted an official, grabbing line judge Ali Shetula.

"No offense to Ali," Belichick said, "but some of those calls were 'Bull Shet.' I know my mother always told me not to pick at 'scabs,' but that was ridiculous.

"Of course, now I feel petty for complaining after seeing the Packers get shafted on Monday night. That was a terrible call, probably the third-worst in history, right behind the 'Tuck Rule' and me going for it on fourth down in Indy in 2009. Sadly enough, there were at least three other calls in the Packers-Seahawks game that made the top 10."

Much like replacement officials, the Pats don't look like Super Bowl favorites. The New England defense has a lengthy list, about 500 yards long, of pressing issues. But just when you think the Pats are in trouble, Belichick whips out a new wrinkle in the game plan, or a bootleg film, to iron things out.

The Patriots' defense forces two Buffalo turnovers, and Brady and company rebound with a 34-23 win.

San Diego @ Kansas City (+3)

After last week's 27-3 loss to the visiting Falcons, the Chargers are 2-1 and still sit atop the AFC West, one game ahead of the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders, all at 1-2.

"You know what they say about the AFC West," Norv Turner said. "'If you're one game over .500, you're likely leading the division.' That usually applies to Week 1, too. And one game is often the margin in the final division standings. So, when someone asks 'How the West Was One,' you'll know.

The Chiefs shocked the Saints 27-24 in overtime last week, leaving New Orleans winless. Jamaal Charles exploded for 233 yards rushing and a touchdown, as the heretofore lethargic Chiefs' offense found its rhythm.

"I carved up that Saints' defense Good,'" Charles said. "In other words, I carved it up like Roger Goodell. In fact, I felt a lot like Goodell as I was running through the Saints' defense, because I kept saying 'You can't touch me.'"

Charles scampers for 115 yards on the ground, and Matt Cassell finds Dwayne Bowe for the game-clinching score.

Kansas City wins, 27-23.

Seattle @ St. Louis (+3)

The Rams mustered only 160 yards of total offense in last week's 23-6 loss in Chicago. The Rams are now 1-2 and at the bottom of the NFC West.

"When that's all you can 'muster,'" Jeff Fisher said, "you're forced to play 'catch up.'

"But this team is a work in progress. We've got first-round picks from the Redskins in addition to our own for the next two years. It's not often the coach of a 1-2 team coming off a 2-14 year can say this, but I can: 'we're loaded."

The Seahawks were handed a 14-12 win over the Packers on Monday night thanks to some suspect officiating.

"Replacement officials will always have a place in my heart," Pete Carroll said. "In their honor, my wife and I recently purchased The Replacements' entire music catalog. We both own it, which I'm thrilled to call 'simultaneous possession.' Golden Tate agrees — the music is 'catchy.'"

The Seahawks fall behind early, but quickly erase the six-point deficit behind the running of Marshawn Lynch, the passing of Russell Wilson, and the refereeing of officials who don't know the difference.

Seattle wins, 24-9.

San Francisco @ NY Jets (+3)

The Vikings stunned the previously undefeated 49ers 24-13 last week, and now San Francisco must regroup for a cross-country trip to face the Jets. It's the 49ers' third road game of the year

"We just didn't play with passion," Jim Harbaugh said. "It appears we left our hearts in San Francisco. Rex Ryan should be happy to hear that I'm not leaving my foot in San Francisco. Rex will be sad to hear I'm bringing it for a butt kicking and not for his perverted fetish."

The Jets left Miami with a hard-earned 23-20 overtime win, improving their record to 2-1, where they are tied with the Bills and Patriots. Mark Sanchez was 21-46 for 306 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions.

"We know the 49ers are coming with a chip on the shoulders," Ryan said. "We start each season with a chip on our shoulders. Usually, we're the one who knock it off.

"We need more from Sanchez. However, we don't need more from Tim Tebow. He showed plenty in his Vogue photo shoot. Some hardcore Christians are calling it a 'spread offense.' I bet if you put that tractor tire on a football field, Tebow wouldn't be able to move it at all."

The 49ers return to form, defensively and offensively, and the Jets' defense appears lost without Darrelle Revis. The 49ers are not the Dolphins, so, for the Jets, it's "Back to MetLife, Back to Reality."

The 49ers harass Sanchez, forcing three turnovers. Tebow relieves a battered Sanchez in the fourth quarter and plays terribly, validating what Vogue proved earlier — Tebow is a "poser."

San Francisco wins, 20-13.

A few weeks later on Broadway, a musical based on the story of a receiver with a long history of nonconformity who now acts like a total team player, opens. The show, called "Ain't Moss Behavin,'" plays to rave reviews.

Tennessee @ Houston (-8)

The Titans took their first win last week, beating the visiting Lions in a wild 44-41 overtime victory. Jake Locker threw for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Chris Johnson continued to struggle, with only 24 yards on 14 carries.

"Chris Johnson says he's not getting the blocks," Locker said. "He's wrong. I know we have holes in our defense, but we also have them in our offense. Chris shouldn't criticize his offensive linemen under any circumstances, especially when they're getting further downfield than he is."

The Texans stated their case loud and clear as the AFC's best time, going into Denver and leaving with a 31-25 win. At 3-0, Houston has a two-game cushion on the Jaguars, Colts, and Titans.

"The helmets of all NFL quarterbacks are fitted with an earpiece," Matt Schaub said. "I lost mine in Denver."

It's a Tennessee versus Houston contest, and, oddly enough, the only Oiler in town is Edmonton goalie Nikolai Khabibulin, who handles the opening coin toss and jokingly asks Schaub if he's ever lost a face-off.

The Texans win the toss, and win everything else on the day.

Schaub exfoliates the Titans secondary, tossing for 284 yards and 3 scores. Houston wins, 30-13.

Minnesota @ Detroit (-6)

The Vikes pulled off the season's biggest upset, stunning the 49ers 24-13 last week. Christian Ponder threw for 198 yards and 2 scores and rushed for another score, delighting an ecstatic, yet surprised, Mall of America Stadium crowd.

"That's what I call 'good Christian leadership,'" Leslie Frazier said. "Ponder obviously has a solid future in the NFL and is moving fast up the fantasy football boards. 'Christian-sanity' is sweeping Minnesota. I hate to resort to an overused expression, but 'he is risen.'"

The struggling Lions are 1-2 after losing 44-41 in overtime in Tennessee. Detroit piled up 583 yards of total offense, but surrendered 437 and gave up two special teams touchdowns.

"With this offense," Jim Schwartz said, "I never thought this team would be outscored. But it seems like every time we lose, that's the case.

"To compound issues, Matthew Stafford has a strained right leg. Apparently, he hurt it running onto the field after Titans' touchdowns."

The Lions, as opposed to 18 seconds worth, play an entire game with a sense of desperation. Stafford sits, and Shaun Hill picks up the slack, throwing for 327 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Detroit wins, 37-28.

Miami @ Arizona (-4½)

Believe it or not, but the Cardinals are 3-0 and alone in first atop the NFC West after an emotional 27-6 win over the visiting Eagles last week. Kevin Kolb vanquished his former team with 222 yards passing and two touchdowns.

"This is the most satisfying victory of my pro career," Kolb said, "Which can only mean I've had a very unsatisfying career.

"I'm not sure I have the power to make the Eagles regret trading me. Only Michael Vick can do that. And, as was also the case in Philly, he's better at it than me."

Miami is 1-2, but could very well be 2-1 had Dan Carpenter made either of the two 47-yard field goals he missed, one in regulation, one in overtime, against the Jets.

"We're playing the undefeated Cardinals, which should pique the attention of those ornery 1972 Dolphins," Joe Philbin. "This year is the 40th anniversary of their magical season. I've been lucky enough to stand in the same room with the surviving members of that team. As you would expect, it smelled like 'old farts.'"

Arizona wins, 24-13.

Oakland @ Denver (-5½)

The Broncos host long-time rival Oakland, hoping to get back on track after consecutive losses to the Falcons and Texans. With a Denver win, and a Chiefs win over the Chargers, there would be a three-way tie for the lead in the AFC West.

"There are three reasons I chose to play for the Broncos," Peyton Manning said. "The Chargers, the Chiefs, and the Raiders.

"But I know I have to play better. I've made some bad decisions in the last two games. I know more is expected of me in Denver. But this is about what was expected of me in Indianapolis."

Despite giving up 384 yards passing and four touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger, the Raiders beat the Steelers 34-31, scoring the final 13 points of the game.

"Credit the team for pulling this game out," Dennis Allen said. "That's called 'finding a way to win.' They had to find it, because it darn sure wasn't in the game plan."

Denver wins, 31-19.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (+1)

The Cincinnati offense was explosive in a 38-31 win over the Redskins last week, piling up 478 yards of offense and three scores of 48 yards or longer.

"This game features a lot of dynamic offensive players," A.J. Green said. "So hopefully the outcome will be decided by the 'horses' and not the 'zebras.'

"But let's try not to be so hard on the replacement officials. They're working under a lot of pressure. No one wants to see them choke, but everyone wants to see them choked."

The Jaguars posted their first win of the year, beating the Colts on Blaine Gabbert's 80-yard strike to Cecil Shorts with 45 seconds left. In non-80-yard touchdown plays, Gabbert was a pedestrian 9-of-20 for 75 yards.

"That is indeed 'pedestrian,'" Mike Mularkey said. "Ironically, that decisive touchdown pass may have kept Gabbert from taking a 'walk.'"

Ironically, Gabbert can't walk; he needs to be "carried," and Maurice Jones-Drew takes him places.

Jacksonville wins, 27-24.

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-2)

After wins to open the season, both the Redskins and Bucs have dropped two in a row. Mike Shanahan and the dynamic Robert Griffin III now face the Bucs and head coach Greg Schiano, who's instilled his new team with a new-found confidence.

"I hear the Bucs like to be quite aggressive on opponents' kneel downs," Griffin said. "I say by year's end, they should be pretty good at it."

The Bucs were offensively inept in last week's 16-10 loss in Dallas, with just 166 yards of total offense.

"We plan on hitting RGIII whenever possible," Schiano said. "Heck, we might 'take a knee' if the opportunity presents itself. It's that kind of mentality that may make me the NFL's most-hated coach by season's end. Sunday's game against Washington is the perfect platform for me to prove how much I can get 'under one's 'Skin.'"

Tampa Bay wins, 26-21.

New Orleans @ Green Bay (-5)

The Saints are 0-3 and now face the unenviable task of traveling to Green Bay in search of their first win. New Orleans has surrendered 102 points in three games, worst in the NFC.

"Desperate times call for desperate measures," Drew Brees said. "That's why we're filing an injunction against the Packers' offense. That may be the only way we can stop them.

"We still have a lot of pride here in the Big Easy. For that reason, we're not afraid to question authority. That's not a criticism of Roger Goddell. On the contrary, it's us asking who our coach is."

Green Bay was robbed on Monday night in Seattle, as the officials inexplicably awarded the Seahawks a touchdown catch on the game's final play in regulation. It was a bitter defeat for the Packers, who are now 1-2, albeit just a game out of first in the NFC North.

"Hopefully," Mike McCarthy said, "the NFL will take notice of what happened to us and apply it to striking officials. We got 'jobbed'; locked-out officials need that, as well."

The Packers reply to news of the NFL's deal with locked-out officials with the most sarcastic "Thanks" in world history. Then they take out a week's worth of frustration out on the Saints.

Green Bay wins, 41-24.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-2)

The Eagles were stymied 27-6 in Arizona last week, done in by 3 turnovers, a problem that is now cause for major alarm in Philadelphia.

"Turnovers finally caught up to us," Andy Reid said. "I'm quite surprised it took them so long. Apparently, winning ugly and losing ugly look a lot alike.

"But I like to look on the bright side. We're without a doubt the best 1-2 team that should be 0-3 in the league. But there's no need to panic. Michael Vick is still my quarterback, which basically contradicts my previous statement."

The Giants head to Philadelphia with the confidence of an offense that knows it can score on anyone, and the confidence of a defense that makes most offenses feel the same way.

"Our defense has come a long way since giving up 58 points in our first two games," Tom Coughlin said. "And I expect them to come up big in Philly, because they'll likely have just as many chances to score as our offense."

The Eagles' defense plays with passion, sacking Eli Manning four times, while Philly offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg dials up quick slants and screens for Vick, ensuring he gets the ball out of his hands before putting it into those of the opponents. LeSean McCoy carries the load on the ground, rushing for 114 yards.

After surviving a late Giants' comeback, the Eagles hold on for a 25-20 win.

Chicago @ Dallas (-3½)

Jay Cutler and Tony Romo, two of the most-maligned quarterbacks in the league, face-off in Dallas on Monday night.

"In a lot of ways," Romo said, "I'm a lot like Cutler. We're both quarterbacks. In more ways, I'm not like him at all. I can sit in the whirlpool with teammates with no fear that I'll be drowned. Of course, there's nothing more satisfying than lounging in the whirlpool while reading the third book in The Hunger Games series, 'Mockingjay.'"

The Bears are 2-1 and tied for the lead in the NFC North. Chicago's two wins have come against the Colts and Rams, who are a combined 2-4.

"The name-calling on this team has to stop," Lovie Smith said, "but not before I report a few of the derogatory terms Cutler's been called. There's 'Smarmy of One,' 'I-Formation,' The Un-Bear-able,' and 'The Chicago Black Sheep.' Also, any combination of the symbols '#,' '%,' '&,' and '*.'

"It's my job as a coach to keep this team together. So, whenever there's conflict, I've instructed my players to summon me by saying 'Where's the Lovie?'"

Chicago wins, 23-20.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:22 PM | Comments (0)

College Basketball Day 1 Preview

I pride myself on having the earliest Week 1 previews in the industry in college football and college basketball, and by my standards, I am quite late with this college basketball preview. This is to my shame.

There's been a slight change in how the season will start compared to previous seasons and as a result this will be a Day 1, rather than Week 1, preview. For the last several years, while the first full day was the second Friday in November, the 3-4 days prior to that would also give us early-round action in what used to be Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, now the 2K Sports Classic.

This year, that tournament is starting on Friday November 9th just like everyone else, and early-round coverage of the tournament seems to have been deemphasized by ESPN. Last year, tournament organizers really had to scramble to fill out the field, reaching down not only to Division II (which they will again this year), but even a first-year DII program, Indiana-Kokomo.

Another new change is the NCAA welcomes two new teams to Division I, although one simply took a hiatus of a few years before deciding they liked Division I better than Division III after all. That would be New Orleans. UNO gave the world Eric Rasmussen and Ledell Eackles, and the Privateers begin the year at home on the 9th, against San Jose State. Not bad getting a school from a sort-of major conference to rechristen your arrival.

The other school making its initial foray into Division I is Northern Kentucky University, the "Norse." While UNO has several other non-conference home games besides the SJSU game, NKU plays nary a single home game until conference play begins in the Atlantic Sun conference.

The Norse was decent last year in Division II, going 23-7 and making the DII tournament, where they lost in the first round. All things considered, it may not be too bumpy of a transition for them considering the Atlantic Sun is arguably the worst conference in Division I basketball.

In other changes, I guess last year's Michigan State/North Carolina game on an aircraft carrier must have been wildly successful, because there are three games on aircraft carriers on Day 1 alone. All three games are between two teams in the preseason AP Top 25, so happily we will have quite a few games to start with that will actually be compelling and hopefully competitive.

First up is No. 2 Syracuse against No. 22 San Diego State on the USS Midway at 7 EST on FOX Sports. As the Midway is docked in San Diego, this is a de facto home game for the Aztecs. SDSU has been very good the last few years, making a Sweet 16 berth and climbing as high as number No. 4 in the nation, but has yet to pick up a real signature win to get everyone's attention. This would do it.

Then we have No. 7 Ohio State taking on No. 11 Marquette on the USS Yorktown in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. I'm an OSU homer but I fear they are ranked too high with Jared Sullinger gone. I wouldn't go as far as saying this would be a "signature win" for Marquette — they won the 1977 National Championship and have made it to the Big Dance the last six years, knocking off many Big East giants in the process — but they haven't made it beyond the Sweet 16 in that span, and I'm drawing a blank on their big non-conference wins. It will also be at 7 EST on the NBC Sports Network.

Once that game is over, NBC Sports will fire up another aircraft carrier game, No. 15 Georgetown vs No. 25 Florida on the USS Bataan in Jacksonville. This game sees two teams trying to regain some of the bloom they've lost off their rose in the last few years, with neither team making the Final Four since 2007, although Florida has been just one game short of that the last two years. Since Georgetown is ranked slightly better, but Florida is much closer to home, this could be a good one. Interesting trivia: during the Gators' 2006 title run, the only team in the tourney to stay within single digits of them was Georgetown, who fell 57-53.

Other games of note: It's not on an aircraft carrier, but Michigan State continues to honor the military by opening the season against UConn at Rammstein Air Force Base in Germany. It will be strange to see Jim Calhoun not patrolling the Huskies sidelines or righteously ripping a reporter to shreds (my favorite part is when the scribe gets on his high horse at 40 seconds in and the other reporters jeer). Best of luck to his replacement, former player Kevin Ollie. They will not be favorites in this game. It's at 5:30 EST on ESPN.

Then there's No. 1 ranked Kentucky vs. Maryland in the new Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Yet again, a chance for a once-great team to get a signature win to demonstrate they are back in business. 8:30 EST on ESPN.

Finally, if you want to be a real junkie and say you watched the first first first game of the season, there will be a Noon EST game with Eastern Michigan taking on Rochester College, an NAIA school. In fact they are even new to NAIA, and EMU has no business scheduling this game, but it will probably be on MAC-Sports.com. Enjoy!

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:35 PM | Comments (0)

September 26, 2012

Early Tourneys: Kick Starters

It's been fairly quiet on the college basketball front this summer. Save for the possible scandal at North Carolina and Jim Calhoun's retirement, there hasn't been a whole lot of news to gossip about. But, during that time, college football unveiled its plan to usher in a four-team championship playoff in a couple of years.

That got me thinking about brackets again. The joy of a tournament atmosphere. Teams playing for a trophy and bragging rights in a one-and-out scenario. Man, March is too far off. Then, the light bulb flickers on. We don't have to wait six more months for tournament action.

In less than one-third of the time, we'll have the opportunity to fill our heads with contests between some of the nation's best teams and some of the most storied programs. And just in time to fill our bellies, too.

When it comes to holiday basketball tournaments, the focus used to be on three places: Hawaii (Maui Invitational), Anchorage (Great Alaska Shootout), and New York (Preseason NIT). It was an extraordinary honor if you were selected into the field of these events. Today, a win-loss circumstance has presented itself as more tourneys and up and running. The loss ... it's rendered these three stalwarts less meaningful (and almost non-existent in Alaska). The win ... it allows more eyeballs to see intriguing matchups and potential sleepers come spring.

I couldn't possibly go through the details of every school-sponsored event. Then there are the tourneys that have the majority of play at school sites, with a four-team showcase at the end. I won't bother with those, either (even if some of the quartets will provide some great eye candy). I'm sticking to the stops that (mainly) cater to neutral sites and field brackets of eight teams or more. Over the next few weeks, I'll look into these 10 tournaments to see what headlines will take shape. Let's start down south.

Charleston Classic

This field could be the most underrated one of the whole tournament season. The home school, College of Charleston, will have its own issues now that Doug Wojcik has stepped in for the retired Bobby Cremins as head coach. But if you're looking for teams with question marks heading into the season, this might be your ticket.

Team With the Most to Gain: Murray State

Last year's darlings gave Marquette a tough fight before falling to the Golden Eagles in the second round of the tournament. But the scoring stud is back. With Isaiah Canaan leading the way, MSU could be looking for a bigger spotlight. Possible games with St. John's and Baylor/Colorado might help make an early-season statement.

Team With the Most to Lose: St. John's

The squad with the highest upside appears to be the favorite in this set of teams. That talented group of freshman (including Phil Greene and Sir'Dominic Pointer) now has a year of seasoning under their belts. Plus, they get their coach back. Steve Lavin is set to return to the bench after almost a year off to recover from prostate cancer. This group of high-flying athletes (and even more out of this world names) should contend for the Big East title. However, they may have to survive a shootout (Murray State) and a bruising (Baylor/Colorado) to win this trophy.

Unknown Factor: Boston College

The Eagles are heading in a new direction under second-year coach Steve Donahue. The roster has one grad student (Andrew Van Nest), one junior (Danny Rubin), two freshmen, and a boatload of sophomores looking to improve on their 9-22 showing from last season.

The former Cornell coach might be a year away from having his team ready to challenge in the ACC, but this tournament could be a good jumping point. As Baylor and Colorado reload from their NCAA campaigns, this might be a good time for BC to swipe an unexpected win and gain some greatly needed confidence.

In the End ... St. John's Beats Colorado

I like the athletes of the Red Storm to provide a big enough advantage to win this event, anyway. Add in a guy who I believe is one of the most underrated coaches of this generation, and you have a mix that just may be too much for the rest of the field.

Puerto Rico Tip-Off

The other tournament to start on November 15th has a similar look to Charleston. N.C. State has the makings of a dark horse Final Four team, especially after their Sweet 16 run in March's NCAAs. The returning core of C.J. Leslie, Richard Howell, Scott Wood, and Lorenzo Brown will make Mark Gottfried's squad tough to beat.

The difference with the Wolfpack's draw is that the top half includes a couple of teams that might not be in as much of a rebuilding mode as Baylor and Colorado are.

Team With the Most to Gain: Oklahoma State

The Cowboys have a potent one-two punch in returning guard Markel Brown and guard/forward Le'Bryan Nash. This team also contains a lot of sophomores looking to get this program back to the postseason after a year off. If coach Travis Ford gets any production out of his duo of senior centers (Mason Cox and Philip Jurick), OSU should be a player in the top half of the Big XII.

Team With the Most to Lose: Akron

I could have easily selected one of the big boys here, but how much fun would that be? With regards to the MAC, everyone appears to be giving love to the Bobcats of Ohio, despite breaking in a new head coach. The Zips might not be the favorites to win the conference, but they're not far off. And after finishing last season with the league's best record, there may not be a better way for Keith Dambrot's experience-laden team to start the campaign by knocking off a couple of teams with known names on their chests.

While there's no shame in taking a couple knocks, this could be the fuel they need to propel themselves towards an NCAA bid.

Unknown Factor: UMass

The Minutemen were in the thick of the Atlantic-10 chase until a February swoon put them in a "win the conference tournament" mode. They didn't and, thus, landed in the NIT. No matter. Derek Kellogg's squad made the most of their second stanza, getting all the way to Madison Square Garden. Now, they want to improve their prospects.

In a year where Xavier needs to restock, Temple must rebuild, and Rick Majerus won't be on the sidelines in Saint Louis, the A-10 title might be ready to return to Springfield. A possible scare of N.C. State might turn some heads in their direction.

In the End ... N.C. State Over Akron

There's usually one tournament each year where a Mid-Major strides through and creates a buzz. I think Akron has the chance to do it this year. The MAC may be returning to the form that swooped up at-large bids once upon a time ... or that saw a team reach the Sweet 16 just last season.

However, the Zips are quite up to the level of the Wolfpack ... yet.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:19 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 28

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Denny Hamlin — After qualifying 32nd, Hamlin charged to the front at Loudon and took the lead on lap 94. He led 193 of 300 laps and won for the fifth time this year.

"Last week," Hamlin said, "I told everyone I would win. And I did. As such, I'm 'back up' the point standings.

"Everything went smoothly at Loudon, except for some concerns with our water temperature late in the race. I think all parties involved, including my baby's momma, agreed that it was an inopportune time to have our water break."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson took the runner-up position for the second straight week and ascended to the top of the point standings. He now leads Brad Keselowski by 1 point, and Denny Hamlin by 7.

"Ask anybody who knows me," Johnson said. "They'll tell you I'm not used to finishing second. And speaking of '2s,' I want my fellow Chasers to have no choice but to use two hands when asked how many Cup titles I have."

3. Brad Keselowski — After winning the Chase opener at Chicagoland last week, Keselowski finished sixth in the Sylvania 300, posting his 17th top-10 of the year. He now trails Jimmie Johnson by one point in the Sprint Cup standings.

"Hamlin did what one would expect of me," Keselowski said. "He went on Twitter last week and guaranteed a win. I wasn't much of a factor in this race, so you didn't hear a peep, much less a tweet out of me."

4. Tony Stewart — Stewart took seventh in the Sylvania 300 after leading 38 laps, scoring his third straight top-seven result. He is now fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 10 out of first.

"Denny Hamlin ran a great race," Stewart said. "Congratulations to Joe Gibbs Racing for their 100th win. I had a hand in many of those victories. I've had a hand in a lot of things; I've had a hand on a lot more. Just ask any driver who's crossed me."

5. Kasey Kahne — Kahne posted his ninth top-five finish of the year and second of the Chase with a fifth at Loudon. He remained fifth in the Sprint Cup point standings and trails Jimmie Johnson by 15.

"The No. 5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet was fast," Kahne said. "I'm certainly pleased with my sponsor, and they are pleased with me. I'm popular with Farmers Insurance, and even more popular with farmers' daughters."

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer was the second-best Toyota at Loudon, coming home fourth in the Sylvania 300, which was dominated by Denny Hamlin. Bowyer is 15 points behind Hamlin in the point standings and still very much in the hunt for the Sprint Cup.

"Eastwood might," Bowyer said, "but this 'Clint' doesn't talk to empty chairs. Or do I? Hopefully, at the NASCAR banquet at year's end, I will be talking to one empty chair, my own, when I, as champion, take the podium and address the other 11 drivers on the stage. Boy, would that 'make my dais.'"

7. Jeff Gordon — Gordon won the pole for the Sylvania 300 and finished third behind race-winner Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson. He is 12th in the point standings, 45 out of first.

"It must be a slow week in NASCAR," Gordon said. "The biggest news is Kurt Busch signing with Furniture Row Racing for 2013. It's a perfect fit, because Kurt's had enough 'seats' to fill a furniture store."

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished a disappointing 13th at Loudon, finishing in the same position he qualified. He is seventh in the point standings, 26 out of first.

"Obviously," Earnhardt said, "I've got a lot on my mind. There's the Chase, and then there's my split with the Eury's. I hate to lose those guys, but with my record, what's another loss?"

9. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led one lap and finished 14th in the Sylvania 300, following an 18th last week at Chicagoland. He is 11th in the Sprint Cup point standings, 35 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I'm driving myself right out of the Chase," Kenseth said. "Luckily, that's on the way to Joe Gibbs Racing.

"Obviously, the No. 17 Roush Fenway Ford is not fast enough. So, you could say I'm just going through the slow motions."

10. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished 11th in the Sylvania 300, and moved up two spots in the point standings to eighth. He trails Jimmie Johnson by 31.

"Finishing 11th accurately sums up my season," Harvick said, "because it's been a struggle to stay in the top 10 all year."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:53 AM | Comments (0)

September 25, 2012

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Cheers for: CBS, for showing the end of Jets/Dolphins, Jaguars/Colts, and Chiefs/Saints.

* Boos for: FOX, for highlighting 3-4 stars instead of showing the starting lineups. It doesn't take that long to show the offensive line.

* Cheers for: NBC, for capturing individual Raven and Patriot reactions to Justin Tucker's inches-close game-winning field goal.

* Fantasy football players, the time to sell the Jets defense is now.

* Last week, the NFL lost one of the greatest people ever associated with the sport. I wrote last week about Steve Sabol, and it was wonderful to see people around the league honor him in Week 3.

***

Three biggest officiating mistakes in Monday's Seahawks/Packers game:

1. Letting players leave the field before final extra point
2. Phantom pass interference on Sam Shields
3. Missed pass interference on Golden Tate

The one call I don't think was a mistake, after about a dozen replays, was awarding possession to Tate on the final play. Simultaneous possession goes to the offense, and that was awfully close. There is no rule about whose chest is closer to the ball. Tate had both hands on the ball when he and M.D. Jennings hit the ground. That could have gone either way, with replacement refs or the regular guys. That call didn't bother me.

Maybe Seahawk fans and I are the only ones who feel that way, but it seemed to me that ESPN's commentators were extraordinarily unprofessional in their treatment of the situation. These guys are freaking out, in an echo chamber where everyone uncritically reinforces everyone else's opinion. They exaggerate and exacerbate the problem, and it doesn't help anyone. Bad calls on game-deciding plays happen all the time, even with the normal referees out there. The Tuck Rule. Ed Hochuli's blown fumble call. The Calvin Johnson rule. Last season, an officiating error changed who won the Super Bowl. Jerome Boger's "down by no contact" rule gave the Giants a win, the difference between a 9-7 team making the playoffs or an 8-8 team missing them. These things happen every year.

The pass interference call on Shields, critical to field position, was a major mistake, and really inexplicable. The replacement officials also seemed not to understand that Seattle needed to attempt an extra point at the end of regulation, which created a 10-minute delay and hugely increased the controversy, since the announcers spent the whole 10 minutes complaining that the call was wrong. Golden Tate clearly pushed off, and it should have been called as offensive pass interference, but the announcers admitted that regular refs probably wouldn't have called it, either. What they were really upset about was a very close, but ultimately reasonable, judgment call about whether or not Tate established simultaneous possession. It looked to me like he did, but it was a close call either way, and these guys acted like the sky was falling. If the exact same thing happened with a regular officiating crew, and the point after had been kicked immediately afterwards, there would be virtually no controversy. I blame ESPN for blowing the problem out of proportion more than I blame the officials for anything.

My expectations for Jon Gruden are so low that he bothers me the least. I've repeatedly called Mike Tirico the best play-by-play man in the NFL, but his unnuanced and extreme reaction was unforgivable. Gerry Austin, though, is a soulless shell of a human being. I understand why ESPN brought him in, to do what Mike Pereira does so well for FOX, and it was a good idea. But I really, really hope ESPN will take him off the air. Austin has got to be the most disagreeable person associated with NFL broadcasting today. He comes off as biased, bitter, closed-minded, and mean-spirited. He's upsetting to listen to. Linda Cohn, in the studio, was human hyperbole. She's supposed to be an anchor.

The sky is not falling, and Wayne Elliott's officiating crew actually did a better job this week on Monday night than they did last week for Rams/Washington. It was a tough call, and there are several reasons to believe the Packers should have won. But we've all seen worse, and it's time to move on. Brackets indicate Week 2 rank.

1. Houston Texans [1] — Three weeks, three amazing games from second-year DE J.J. Watt. This week, he made 4 tackles for a loss, including 2.5 sacks of Peyton Manning, who is maybe the best QB in history at avoiding sacks. Watt leads the Texans in tackles, plus he has 5.5 sacks, 5 passes defensed, and a fumble recovery. If you are still alive in a survivor pool and haven't used them already, this is your team in Week 4 (home vs. Titans). Otherwise, you're taking the...

2. Atlanta Falcons [3] — Matt Ryan leads the NFL in passer rating (114.0) and Atlanta leads the league in turnover differential (+10). Thomas DeCoud helped with the latter, grabbing two interceptions and a fumble recovery against San Diego. Two of the next three are at home, and all are against teams with losing records. Atlanta probably goes into its bye at 6-0.

3. Arizona Cardinals [8] — Going back to last November, they're 10-2. This season, the Cardinals rank 2nd in fewest points allowed (40), and quarterback Kevin Kolb ranks 3rd in the NFL in passer rating (108.6). Ken Whisenhunt this week passed Don Coryell as the team's all-time leader in coaching wins (43).

4. Green Bay Packers [4] — Haven't scored a point in the first quarter this season. Is this really the same offense that tore the league apart in 2011? Right tackle Brian Bulaga had an awful game, but the first-half play-calling (3 runs, 24 passes) didn't help.

5. Baltimore Ravens [5] — The replacement refs have made a lot of mistakes, and the worst crews are interfering with and undermining the game. But I think we've forgotten how much we used to complain about the standard officials, and we're often too hard on the new guys, seeing every mistake as one the usual refs would catch. That said, the Ravens have been in two really poorly officiated games, this week prompting what Al Michaels diplomatically called, "The loudest manure chant I've ever heard." Yes, and the clearest. Congratulations, Baltimore, on synchronizing the audio of your displeasure.

6. San Francisco 49ers [2] — I suspect the loss to Minnesota was mostly a fluke. This team thrives on great defense and mistake-free offense. In Week 3, the Niners had two lost fumbles, an interception, and a blocked field goal. They gave the Vikings four first downs via penalty, and they allowed touchdowns every time Minnesota got close. Those things won't happen most weeks, or at least not all together.

7. New England Patriots [9] — Played well on the road against the NFL's best home team, and didn't seem to miss Aaron Hernandez in the passing game. Vince Wilfork looked amazing in the first half, and tired in the second half. The Patriots are 1-2 for the first time since 2001, before Tom Brady became the starting quarterback.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers [6] — Lost to the winless Raiders, and normally I might drop them further than this, but they've been playing without James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. Both players, and RB Rashard Mendenhall, are expected to return after the Week 4 bye, and this is a different team with that kind of talent on the field. Also, the Steelers lost fair and square in Week 3, but they looked like the superior team.

9. Seattle Seahawks [13] — Don't take this the wrong way, but Russell Wilson reminds me of Tim Tebow. Do nothing for most of the game, then take advantage of your heroic defense and make a couple of big plays to win the game. If you doubled Wilson's passing yardage, he would still rank 8th. Seattle's defensive line and secondary were awfully impressive on Monday, with Chris Clemons sacking Aaron Rodgers four times in the first half.

10. Philadelphia Eagles [7] — Since the advent of the 16-game schedule, 22 teams have committed 12 or more turnovers in the first three weeks of the season, going a combined 14-52. Of the previous 21 teams, only four made the playoffs (19%). Three of the four lost their first playoff game; the '83 Rams won their first playoff before losing the next 51-7. A 2-1 start gives the Eagles a chance, but they really need to stop beating themselves. Michael Vick leads the NFL in fumbles (5), fumbles lost (3), and interceptions (6).

11. Chicago Bears [10] — Won 23-7, in spite of another disappointing game from the offense, and Jay Cutler in particular (183 yds, 58.9 rating). The defense looked great, though. Highlights:

* Sacked Sam Bradford 6 times, including 2.5 from Israel Idonije
* 2 interceptions, including a pick-six by Major Wright and a league-leading 4th INT by Tim Jennings
* Lance Briggs had 2 passes defensed and 7 solo tackles, including three straight plays in the third quarter (3 runs, 6 yards)

That kind of defensive performance will win a lot of games. Against better teams than the Rams, though, offensive play like Cutler's will lose just as many. Cutler ranks 25th in passing yards, 2nd-to-last in passer rating (58.6), and tied for last in TD/INT differential (-3). He passed for more yards in Week 1 (333) than Weeks 2 and 3 combined (309).

12. Denver Broncos [14] — Peyton Manning ranks 20th in passer rating (85.6), between Blaine Gabbert and Sam Bradford. He's also getting sacked at the highest rate (6.5%) of his career (5.0%, 2001) and more than double his career average (3.1%).

13. Dallas Cowboys [16] — Tony Romo lost two fumbles and threw an interception. DeMarco Murray averaged 2.1 yards per carry and the team rushed for a total of 38 yards. The team gained only 14 first downs and went 1/5 in the red zone. And Dallas was charged with 13 penalties, for 105 yards and 3 Buccaneer first downs. Tampa's offense isn't any good, so the Cowboys won anyway, but their offense is dragging, and other than the second half against the Giants in Week 1, the team has not looked strong.

14. New York Giants [17] — Totally outclassed the Panthers. On offense, it looked like the Giants could do whatever they wanted, just totally different levels, like an NFL team against a good college team.

15. San Diego Chargers [12] — Philip Rivers (2 INT, 45.2 rating) was a disaster against the opportunistic Atlanta defense. He threw no interceptions in Week 1, one INT in Week 2, and now two. If he keeps adding one a week, he'll end the season with an NFL-record 120 INTs. He'll also tie the single-game record, then break it seven times.

16. Buffalo Bills [19] — Got their first road victory in over a year, and won by double-digits for the second consecutive game. Tashard Choice rushed for 91 yards in relief of injured C.J. Spiller, and Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed 3 TDs, but most of the credit should go to Dave Wannstedt's defense, which forced 8 punts, including 4 three-and-outs, and got two late takeaways to seal the win.

17. Cincinnati Bengals [18] — Three touchdowns of over 40 yards, featuring two different passers and three different receivers. Defensively, though, they're one of four teams that has allowed over 100 points this season (New Orleans, Tennessee, Washington). The Bengals have a forgiving schedule that makes it easy to imagine them going into the bye at 5-2.

18. Detroit Lions [11] — Led 27-20 with under 7:00 to play, before losing 44-41. Yes, they allowed 20 points in the first 53 minutes, then 24 more at the end. Calvin Johnson leads the NFL in receiving yardage (369). That's amazing for someone who faces constant double-coverage.

19. New York Jets [15] — Beat the Dolphins in overtime, but lost their best player when Darrelle Revis tore his ACL. Goodbye, season.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [21] — Defense has performed admirably, giving problems to Cam Newton, Eli Manning, and Tony Romo. They're allowing 2.3 yards per carry and have eight takeaways, behind only the Falcons and Bears. But the offense is a mess, worst in the NFL in several major categories: yards, yards per play, first downs, third down conversions and conversion percentage. They're near the bottom in most other categories, and Josh Freeman needs to show — soon — that he is still an NFL-caliber quarterback.

21. Oakland Raiders [27] — Pass defense was a disaster, and they trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter, but a few big plays earned them the win. Through Week 3, the Raiders have 14 penalties for 102 yards. Their opponents have 22 penalties for 180 yards.

22. St. Louis Rams [20] — Only team to lose to the Lions this year, and they got embarrassed by the Bears. When an opponent shuts down your passing game like Chicago did, you should be able to run, but Steven Jackson only gained 29 yards, with a 2.6 average. Sam Bradford has gotten sacked 12 times this season, tied for most in the NFL.

23. Tennessee Titans [29] — Crazy game featured a 72-yard fumble return TD, a 105-yard kickoff return TD, a replay of the Music City Miracle (65-yard punt return TD on a lateral), 46 fourth-quarter points, a successful Hail Mary on the final play of regulation, a game-ending fourth-down stand in overtime, and multiple instances of replacement ref mayhem. In a game that featured 1,020 yards of total offense, Chris Johnson accounted for just 29, getting out-rushed by Jake Locker for the second time in three games. The Titans are worst in the NFL in points allowed (113) and point differential (-46).

24. Carolina Panthers [22] — The Giants kicked five field goals, three of them from the red zone. The 36-7 score doesn't even reflect how poorly Carolina played. Cam Newton (3 INT, 40.6 rating) looked lost, but I blame the coaches first and foremost. Maybe they forgot they had to get a gameplan in before Sunday.

25. Kansas City Chiefs [25] — Lead the NFL in offensive yardage (442/gm) and in worst turnover differential (-8). Ryan Succop made six field goals this week, including the tying score with :03 left, and the game-winner in overtime. Jamaal Charles carried 33 times — shattering his previous high of 25 — for 233 yards, and now leads the league in rushing (323).

26. Minnesota Vikings [31] — Christian Ponder had a charmed day against the oft-praised 49er defense, throwing two TD passes to tight end Kyle Rudolph, and scrambling 23 yards for another TD. Percy Harvin has yet to score this season, but he's gained over 80 receiving yards each week and leads the NFL in receptions (27). For the third straight game, rookie kicker Blair Walsh made a field goal of over 50 yards. He has yet to miss at any distance.

27. Miami Dolphins [26] — Randy Starks blocked a potential game-winning field goal in overtime, but rookie head coach Joe Philbin iced him, so the play didn't count. The Jets made the next one, and Miami lost. Icing the kicker backfires again. Good one, Philbin.

28. Washington Redskins [24] — Lead the NFL in scoring (99), but at the expense of RG3's body. Rookie QB Robert Griffin III, like Michael Vick in Philadelphia, is taking an awful lot of hits. In Week 3, the Bengals hit him 13 times in the pocket, and on most of his 12 rushing attempts. If this keeps up, he won't last the season. The defensive front seven looked okay on Sunday — Rob Jackson, filling in for the injured Brian Orakpo, made several nice plays — but the secondary repeatedly got burned, and every opponent has passed for over 300 yards. Washington has lost seven straight home games.

29. New Orleans Saints [23] — Drew Brees said this week that they were not "prepared to be in this situation ... it's pretty horrendous and it's an embarrassment to the league." Apparently, though, he was talking about the replacement refs, not the Saints. I don't think anyone on this team should be taking shots at someone else's preparation right now. Last season, they were 8-0 at home. This year, they're 0-2. Andy Behrens points out that the three teams that have beaten New Orleans (WAS, CAR, KC) are 0-6 against the rest of the NFL. The Saints aren't just losing, they're losing to bad teams — and they're doing it at home.

Since last season, the Saints have lost head coach Sean Payton, assistant head coach Joe Vitt, defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, defensive captain Jonathan Vilma, and all-pro guard Carl Nicks.

30. Cleveland Browns [28] — Start the season 0-3, for the sixth time since the return of the Browns in 1999 — basically every other season. The Ravens have never started 0-3. Art Modell, your legacy lives on in Cleveland.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [32] — Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards — and they almost lost. Blaine Gabbert passed for more yards on his last play (80) than in the rest of the game combined (75). Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson have not energized this team the way they hoped, and Jacksonville's defense is last in the NFL in sacks (2), getting to Andrew Luck zero times in 46 attempts.

32. Indianapolis Colts [30] — Reggie Wayne (294 yards) and Robert Mathis (4 sacks) are still performing. The rest of the roster mostly is not.

Need winning picks this weekend? Get $60 in FREE remember picks from Doc's Sports, a trusted name in handicapping since 1971.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:26 PM | Comments (4)

September 24, 2012

Living on the Edge: Coaches on Hot Seat

The smell of something burning as you walk outside? It's not an early winter, nor is it another bonfire. It's the smell of hot seats already getting much, much hotter after just four weeks into the college football season.

While the potential crop of coaches seems to be fairly thin, these are the 10 names right now that are stuck in quicksand and scrambling desperately to find a way out. I'll start with the hottest seat and the situation surrounding it and then move my way down the list.

1) John L. Smith, Arkansas (1-3)

There's no doubt that 2012 hasn't been the year of the boar. While we all know what happened with Bobby Petrino, the past four weeks have drawn three conclusions. First, Petrino still deserves the bulk of the blame as he could've prevented such horror by not hiring his mistress. Second, attitude clearly reflects leadership and Smith's attitude says 1-3 with no clue to fix things. Finally, being a "player's coach" does not work in the SEC. Those types are chewed up and spit out in that league.

John L. Smith was brought in to guide this program through massive adversity. So far, the results couldn't have been uglier. Smith seems completely over his head. Whether it is his quirky antics that haven't gone over at all with the Razorback faithful, or his filing bankruptcy earlier this year, Smith just doesn't seem to have anything together. Even after the humiliating loss to Alabama, it was QB Tyler Wilson, not Smith, who showed the emotion and anger that Arkansas fans mirrored.

During one of his earlier press conferences, Smith mentioned how he liked to stand back and let his coordinators coordinate. When you have a taskmaster like Bobby Petrino as your offensive coordinator, like he did at Louisville, that plan becomes successful. When you have two coordinators that aren't nearly the taskmasters and have no head coaching experience trying to run a program in the SEC West, that spells eminent disaster.

So, Smith's exit seems almost a certainty and it puts Arkansas AD Jeff Long in one pressure cooker of a situation. Granted, it's hard to find any coach in April, but clearly Smith was the wrong answer, so the onus is on Long to find a big name coach and soon. The good news? Arkansas has loads of cash, solid facilities, and Petrino showed it's a place where you can win. If I was Long, I'd have a short list in hand and be working the phones quietly behind the scenes. This will be the hire he is remembered for in Fayetteville.

2) Joker Phillips, Kentucky (1-3)

Kentucky is a basketball school. Period. To succeed in football in the bluegrass state is a challenge. So, you feel a little for Joker Phillips as he has struggled to lay a winning foundation in Lexington. However, with a 12-17 mark currently after the beatdown by Florida and no sight of success looming soon, the end of the road is in sight, barring an abrupt Wildcat surge.

3) Robb Akey, Idaho (0-4)

Akey got off to a great start in Moscow, giving the Vandals some swagger and grabbing a bowl victory along the way. Since then, it's been quiet times in the Kibbie Dome. Having a 19-47 record will not keep you safe anywhere and in this case, the heat is on for Akey to find the magic that seems to have been lost.

4) John Embree, Colorado (1-3)

Yes, it might just be the second year of the Embree tenure, but Colorado has not shown any signs of improvement from the Dan Hawkins era. Despite winning their conference opener last week, the Buffs have looked abysmal in losing to Colorado State, Sacramento State and in a massacre, to Fresno State. Unless Colorado can keep their winning ways, they could be staring at another long season. Four wins in 23 games sends a red flag for a pink slip.

5) Gene Chizik, Auburn (1-3)

On the one hand, he won a national title. On the other hand, what has he done during any season in which Cam Newton did not play? On one hand, he did win a national title. On the other hand, if you think Auburn will sit around and watch Alabama win title after title while they struggle to reach .500, think again. And yes, that goes for coaches with title rings.

6) Jeff Tedford, California (1-3)

It wasn't long ago when Tedford was one of the hottest names in college football. However, the wave of success seems to be fading. Tedford, in his 10th season, has struggled to reach the top rungs of the Pac-12 ladder in recent years and the fans are growing quite restless. The first week loss against Nevada really fueled the fire under his seat.

7) Bobby Hauck, UNLV (1-3)

Hauck has lost 12 of his last 15 games in Vegas and things don't look any better for the Rebel this year. Hauck, who was wildly successful at Montana, is 5-24 currently at UNLV. It seems as though the fit was wrong, plus Hauck needs to steer clear of what's happening at Montana right now. Whether he has anything to do with it or not, it's best to stay away and try to quickly fix the problems he's had.

8) Randy Edsall, Maryland (2-2)

It's very simple. When a team has more uniforms than wins in your tenure, you're on the hot seat. Edsall has already matched his win total from last season and the Terps didn't look too bad in their loss to West Virginia. However, Edsall is still on a tight leash. He has to make some noise in the ACC or people will really start questioning what's happening with Maryland. Edsall, who succeeded in building the UConn program up, needs to make this a quicker project.

9) Mike Price, UTEP (1-3)

The Miners have been patient with Price, who is in his eighth season with the school. UTEP's losses to Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Wisconsin doesn't look all that shabby. However, Price has failed to meet expectations in El Paso and the pressure is on to get UTEP back in the bowl picture and winning those games against BCS conference teams.

10) Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (2-2)

This one is based off of what Iowa's getting for their money right now. Ferentz is one of college football's highest paid coaches, earning $3.8 million a year at Iowa. However, since 2011, he is just 9-8 with the Hawkeyes, including losses this year to Iowa State and Central Michigan. Ferentz has been in Iowa City for 14 seasons and has some success to his name. However, when you're paid as high as he is, the situation becomes more of a "what have you done for me lately" scenario and right now, 9 wins in the last 17 games doesn't sounds pretty costly.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:51 PM | Comments (0)

September 20, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 3

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

NY Giants @ Carolina (+2½)

It's Thursday night in Charlotte, and two teams that combined for 76 points last week collide at Bank of America Stadium, home of the 1-1 Panthers. The Giants overcame a slow start last week before KO'ing the Buccaneers 41-34, led by 510 yards passing from Eli Manning.

"I'm sure we'll air it out again," Tom Coughlin said, "as will the Panthers. Why wouldn't they? We've given up 5 touchdown passes, tied for worst in the league. It appears the Southwest Airlines blimp will provide the only 'aerial coverage' of the night.

"I'll do anything to defend my quarterback. If that means getting in the face of an opposing coach, I'll do it. If fans really want to see two people 'exchange pleasantries' after a game, they should find out what sleazy bathroom bar the two horniest Panther cheerleaders will be in."

The Panthers will likely force the Giants to run, and thereby keep Manning from finding a rhythm. Jon Beason anchors a defense looking to slow the New York passing attack.

"There's no way Manning gets 500 against us," Jon Beason said. "Not yards. It's possible he'll say 500 'Omaha's.' In fact, I'd put money on it. That would of course be called 'Pari-Mutual of Omaha.'"

Carolina wins, 27-25.

Tampa @ Dallas (-9)

The Cowboys rolled into Seattle last week with the confidence of a team that had just beaten the defending Super Bowl champions (or had just won big at Party Casino). They left just as they went in after getting rolled by the Seahawks, 27-7.

"It's funny how quickly 'Big D' becomes 'lower case,'" Tony Romo said. "It's like they say six or seven times per year in Dallas: 'No guts, no glory holes.'

"To say the Cowboys are 'chronic underachievers' would be accurate, but would also be a disservice to Nate Newton. That cat moved more marijuana than reggae music."

The Bucs lost a shootout to the Giants, 41-34, but Greg Schiano and his young squad served notice that they will fight to the end, much to the chagrin of Tom Coughlin.

"Eli Manning didn't show it in the second half," Schiano said, "but he plays like Joe Pisarcik sometimes. For that reason, we had to come after him on the kneel down. Coughlin didn't like it, but Herm Edwards was all for it. As Herm says, 'You play to win the game.' It most cases, Herm said that after a loss."

Dallas bounces back, and bum rushes Josh Freeman, forcing 3 Tampa turnovers.

Dallas wins, 24-17.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-1½)

After a 23-20 win over the Vikings last week, Andrew Luck and the Colts are 1-1, alone in second place in the AFC South. They'll face the 0-2 Jags, who fell to the Texans last week.

"Facing a No. 1 pick should prepare the Jags for the future," Luck said, "because they'll be staring one in the face at season's end."

The Jags were totally dominated in last week's 27-7 loss to the Texans, as Jacksonville managed just 117 total yards on offense. Blaine Gabbert completed only 7-of-19 passes, and the Jags lost the time of possession battle 43:17 to 16:43.

"We'll be intensely working with Blaine on his drops" Mike Mularkey said, "because he surely takes too many steps back. We were hoping he would show vast improvement from training camp until now. It didn't happen. Our owner Shahid Khan quipped that Arab women have made more progress in the last six months than Gabbert."

Indianapolis wins, 20-13.

Buffalo @ Cleveland (+3)

C.J. Spiller rushed for 123 yards and 2 scores, his second consecutive two-touchdown game, as the Bills pounded the Chiefs 35-17 to even their record at 1-1 this year. With 292 yards on the ground, Spiller leads the NFL in rushing.

"I think I stand up well among great Buffalo running backs," Spiller said. "And I haven't lost my freedom or my helmet, so that gives me the edge."

Despite losing 34-27 to the Bengals, the Browns saw promise and improvement in the play of rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden. After a miserable Week 1 performance, Weeden threw for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"My passer rating went from 5.1 to 114.9," Weeden said. "If I could have seen that kind of improvement in baseball, I'd still be pitching, Colt McCoy would be the starting quarterback, and everyone but Jim Brown would be happy.

"My confidence is soaring, but I'm sure the Bills will try to shake me up with their redesigned defensive line. Buffalo spent loads of money on that new line. But so far, Mario Williams and Mark Anderson have recorded no sacks. It looks like the Bills got exactly what they hoped for — a 'bull' rush."

Williams records his first two sacks of the year, and Weeden sees his passer rating plunge to a spot somewhere between single and triple digits. Ryan Fitzpatrick tosses 2 touchdown passes, and the Bills win, 30-23.

NY Jets @ Miami (+3)

Reggie Bush went wild on the Raiders' defense last week, rushing for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Dolphins' 35-13 win.

"Reggie played like a Heisman Trophy winner," Joe Philbin said. "And, just like in his college days, he's being paid like one."

After dropping 48 points on a soft Buffalo defense, the Jets hit a wall in Pittsburgh, losing 27-10 while managing only 219 total yards.

"There's no need to be alarmed," Sanchez said. "We debuted a new wrinkle in our offense on Sunday. It's called the 'mildcat.' I hear Rex Ryan is upset about being asked so many Tim Tebow questions. At least when asked about Tebow, as opposed to me, Rex has answers."

Ryan and offensive coordinator Tony Sparano simplify the Jets' offensive game plan to such a degree that it's written in crayon. Sanchez and Tebow still ask for clarification, and get it with a run-heavy game plan that later leads to play-action and several overthrown passes.

New York wins, 31-14.

Kansas City @ New Orleans (-9½)

The struggling Chiefs suffered their second straight blowout loss, falling 35-17 in Buffalo last week. In two games thus far, the Chiefs have surrendered 75 points.

"We're making the 'Trip To Bounty-ville,'" Matt Cassel said, "which is often what opposing offenses say when they reach our side of the field. One of these defenses will have to make a statement on Sunday. That statement will determine which is the 'Biggest Easy.'"

The Saints are 0-2 after dropping a 35-27 contest to the Panthers last week, and now occupy last place in the NFC South.

"It's not time to panic," Drew Brees said. "The last thing we need is a players-only meeting; Roger Goodell is watching those like a hawk.

"Of course, if we had a players-only meeting, this team is comfortable enough with each other to say what's on their mind. Constructive criticism is accepted here. It seems far-fetched, but Saints do tell the truth when it can benefit them. We're not afraid to put a head on a platter; it doesn't always have to be an opponent's, though."

New Orleans wins, 34-27.

Cincinnati @ Washington (-2)

The Bengals beat in-state rival Cleveland 31-24 last week, powered by Andy Dalton's three touchdown passes. Now, Cincy heads to the nation's capitol to face Robert Griffin III and the 1-1 Redskins.

"I hear RGIII was a world-class hurdler," Dalton said. "And, apparently, so are the Redskins — they had to jump through hoops just to draft him."

Griffin has shown great leadership, and Mike Shanahan says Griffin reminds him of John Elway, who led the Broncos to two Super Bowls.

"There are those that say I wouldn't have won two Super Bowls without Elway," Shanahan said. "Mitt Romney says 47% of the people believe this. In truth, the number is likely twice that many."

Cincinnati wins, 30-24.

St. Louis @ Chicago (-10)

Jay Cutler threw 4 interceptions and was sacked 7 times in the Bears' humiliating 23-10 defeat in Green Bay last Thursday.

"Chicago's had its share of great leaders," Lovie Smith. "Jim McMahon and Gale Sayers come to mind, as does Peter Cetera. I'm not sure Cutler can be mentioned with those greats yet, although I'd love to hear him sing 'You're the Inspiration.' Better yet, I'd like to hear his teammates sing 'You're the Inspiration.'"

The Rams' comeback 31-28 victory over the Redskins last week gave Jeff Fisher his first victory as the Rams' head coach. In two games, St. Louis has four interceptions, and the improving St. Louis defense will look to pressure Cutler into mistakes.

"We're going to do something unprecedented," Fisher said. "Before the kickoff, we'll let one of the Bears announce Cutler in pre-game introductions. That way, another Bear can say he's 'called out' Cutler."

Cutler meets with his teammates before the game, and accidentally criticizes them on their selfishness as opposed to their selflessness. As punishment, Cutler is 'bench-slapped' by Lovie Smith, and sits out the first series. Cutler returns, and as one would expect, leads the Bears to an uninspiring 24-20 win.

San Francisco @ Minnesota (+6)

The 49ers vanquished their second consecutive NFC North team, validating their Week 1 win over Green Bay with a 27-19 victory over the Lions on Sunday night. San Fran held Matthew Stafford to 230 yards passing and only 1 touchdown.

"Our defense has a way of making the great look ordinary," Jim Harbaugh said. "Our offense has a way of making the ordinary look great. Just ask Alex Smith. He's doing things that Joe Montana and Steve Young never did. Most amazingly, he's doing it with Randy Moss."

The Vikings are off to a 1-1 start, and will have their hands full with the 49ers, considered by many the NFC's, in not the NFL's, best team.

"We've got one thing in our favor," Leslie Frazier said. "And that's home-field advantage. But we're only six-point underdogs, which means our home-field advantage is a lot more than I thought.

"Moss is making his second return to Minnesota. Fortunately for me, he'll be leaving for the third time."

Moss receives a hero's welcome in Minnesota, and is presented with a key to the city of Minneapolis, which immediately changes its locks.

Moss catches a touchdown pass, and the 49ers roar back from a slow start to win, 27-13.

Detroit @ Tennessee (+3½)

Detroit's Jim Schwartz returns to Tennessee, where he forged his reputation as the Titans' defensive coordinator for eight years. The 1-1 Lions will try to bounce back after a tough loss to the 49ers.

"Albert Haynesworth may claim it," Schwartz said, "but the turf at LP Field is my old stomping ground. Don't get me wrong. I don't condone feet on faces, or hands on backs, for that matter."

The 0-2 Titans are winless on the year, and, more importantly, 0-2 in games decided by 28 points or less. As is often the case, Tennessee will need more production from Chris Johnson, who has rushed for only 21 yards on 19 carries so far this year.

"I can't fault Chris' work ethic," Mike Munchak said. "He's trying his damnedest to return to form, one inch at a time. In fact, he's playing like the greatest short-yardage back of all-time."

Detroit wins, 28-24.

Atlanta @ San Diego (-3½)

The 2-0 Chargers are clicking on all cylinders, winners of two in a row after blasting the Titans 38-10 last week. Standing in their way of a 3-0 start are the Falcons, who feature arguably the NFL's best wide receiver duo in Julio Jones and Roddy White.

"We won't be phased," Norv Turner said. "It's not like we haven't dealt with similar situations at home before. This is San Diego. There are millions of 'Julio's' in San Diego, and even more 'whites.'"

The Falcons face their third AFC West team of the young season after success against the Chiefs and Broncos. Matt Ryan outplayed Peyton Manning in Atlanta's 27-21 Monday night win over the Broncos.

"That could have been the biggest win of my career," Ryan said. "Too bad it didn't come in February.

"Hey, there's only one thing better than playing an AFC West schedule, and that's playing that schedule as a member of the division. We started with the Chiefs, and have progressively played tougher AFC West opponents. By that rationale, we should have played the Raiders in June."

The fired-up Chargers come out blazing, and Rivers throws 2 early touchdown passes to give San Diego an early 14-0 lead. The Falcons battle back, but Nate Kaeding wins it with a late field goal.

San Diego wins, 30-27.

Philadelphia @ Arizona (+4)

Kevin Kolb faces his former team as the 2-0 Eagles visit the Cardinals, who shocked the Patriots 20-18 last week in Foxborough. Arizona is 2-0 and tied atop the NFC West with San Francisco.

"I've got a little something for the Eagles," Kolb said. "I think that's why I was traded in the first place. If there were another installment of The Expendables filmed, I would certainly be in the cast, although I wouldn't be the least-known star in the film.

"But I certainly have something to prove, and at home against my former team is the best place to do it. I don't miss my former home. You can say 'I've had my Phil.'"

The Eagles are 2-0 after a dramatic 24-23 win over the Ravens last week, as Michael Vick scored on a quarterback draw with 1:55 left for the deciding points. Vick atoned for 2 interceptions with crucial plays in crunch time.

"I realize I have to limit my turnovers," Vick said. "I've got six in two games. That has to stop. As history has proven, even one 'T.O.' in Philadelphia is too many."

Arizona jumps on the Eagles early, as Darnell Dockett takes to Twitter on Friday for some grammatically incorrect trash talk. Come Sunday, the Cards are talking even more, and two quick turnovers by the Eagles give Cards great field position, which Kolb and the offense cash in for field goals. The 6-point lead holds up, and Arizona wins, 19-13.

Pittsburgh @ Oakland (+4)

The Steelers bounced back from their Week 1 defeat in Denver with a convincing 27-10 win over the overmatched Jets. Now the Steelers head to Oakland's Black Hole where the reeling Raiders await.

"This should be an interesting matchup," Dennis Allen said. "Not the game necessarily, but having Ben Roethlisberger and Sebastian Janikowski in the same place at the same time? Those two like surrounding themselves with 'yes men,' because they won't take 'no' for an answer."

What's the Raiders' best hope for victory? A healthy 53-player roster in uniform? No, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison in street clothes.

Pittsburgh wins, 23-16.

Houston @ Denver (+1)

Matt Schaub and the Texans are 2-0, and travel to Mile High Stadium to face longtime AFC South nemesis Peyton Manning, who now suits up for the Broncos.

"I'm going to Denver to prove something," Matt Schaub said. "That's because in order to prove something, I have to go where Manning is. His shadow follows me more than my own does."

Peyton Manning threw 3 interceptions in the first quarter, and the Broncos dug an early hole from which they couldn't escape, eventually losing 27-21 to the Falcons.

"Houston's J.J. Watts said he learned the Dolphins' snap count by watching Hard Knocks," Manning said. "I learned that the Texans' scout opponents by watching HBO. That's not how I do it. I'm not wired for cable, but my neck is."

Prior to the game, Manning scoops the Broncos' defense on what they can expect from Schaub. It's the shortest motivational speech of Manning's career.

Denver loads up the box to stuff the Texan run game, placing the pressure on Schaub to beat them. Champ Bailey's eyes light up, and a late interception seals Houston's fate.

Denver wins, 24-22.

New England @ Baltimore (-3)

In a rematch of last year's classic AFC Championship Game, the Ravens host the hated Patriots, who, like the Ravens, are 1-1 after a Week 2 loss. The Patriots' offense was lethargic in a 20-18 loss to the Cardinals in Foxborough, managing only 1 touchdown. Stephen Gostkowski pulled a 42-yard field goal as time expired that would have won the game.

"Gostkowski's kick was so wide," Tom Brady said, "it not only missed the goal posts, in missed the television screen. I haven't seen a miss that bad in a Patriot game since Mike Vanderjagt."

The Ravens' defense will have to do better than the 486 yards they surrendered to the Eagles last week.

"We can't simply be good on Sunday," Ray Lewis said. "We have to be great. And speaking of great, Baltimore is now home to two great authors. Edgar Allan Poe is now joined by Tony Siragusa, whose book, Goose: The Outrageous Life and Times of a Football Guy just came out. For an equally entertaining read, check out Mother F'n Goose by Rich Gannon."

New England wins, 29-27.

Siragusa later announces plans to write the sequel to Poe's The Purloined Letter, called The Purloined Donut.

Green Bay @ Seattle (+3)

The Seahawks sent the Cowboys packing last week after a dominating 27-7 Seattle win at Qwest Field, establishing themselves as legitimate playoff threats. A win over the Packers would put the Seahawks among the NFC's elite.

"I'm sure the Packers will come after Russell Wilson," Pete Carroll said, "and force him to make mistakes. I can deal with a few mistakes. If Russell continues to make the same mistakes, then I have a problem. And his problem is even larger, which would be dealing with the nickname 'JaMarcus Russell Wilson."

The Packers bounced back from a Week 1 loss to the 49ers with a dominating 23-10 win over the Bears. With a divisional road loss already on their record, the Pack needs a solid effort in Seattle to avoid another.

"We plan to do with Wilson what we did with Cutler," Clay Matthews said. "And that's make him play like a rookie. Jay's good at throwing one thing — blame. And he's better at catching one thing — hell."

Green Bay wins, 23-19.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:26 PM | Comments (1)

Charm City Season

The 2012 baseball season has been one characterized by old faces and new players to the stage alike. Recent contenders like the Yankees, White Sox, Rangers, Giants, and Cardinals have factored heavily in the pennant races and projected playoff positions. Meanwhile, a group of teams with various levels of expectation and familiarity by the casual fan have some to the fore, such as the A's, Nationals, Reds, and Orioles.

The teams in this latter group have achieved their records in a variety of ways. Oakland, Washington and Cincinnati have all been paced by exemplary pitching, ranking in the top five in baseball in team ERA. Each team has also had a phenomenal second half of the season, with post mid-July winning percentages hovering around the two-thirds mark. The traditional October adage is that pitching rules all, so it wouldn't be too surprising to see any of the three in the World Series.

If the Orioles were to play into late October, it would represent a most shocking postseason run.

Of course, when you look at the Orioles record and their record alone, nothing jumps out as especially weak for a playoff team. At 84-64 after Tuesday night's 18-inning win against Seattle, Baltimore is tied with the mighty, higher-payroll Yankees in the AL East, baseball's premier division over the past decade-and-a-half. The victor of the division will probably end up winning 90-95 games, by no means the division's strongest year at the top, but also not indicative of a division where every team hovers around the .500 mark or below.

Rather, one unbelievable part of the Orioles' run is that they have, for the whole season of baseball, given up more runs than they have scored.

In a season of 162 games, where the cream is always supposed to rise to the top and statistical outliers are to be eradicated, it should be nearly impossible for a team to win so many games while not having actually scored more than its opponents.

There are a lot of casual fans of baseball who become turned off by advanced statistics in baseball. I've tried to explain the principles behind stats like BABIP and FIP to people without any sort of statistical background, and they give me a look as if I was trying to explain the complexities of the tax code.

However, there are some very intuitive stats in sports. In my basketball work for this site, I always like to use points per possession because it's an easily explained stat that strips away biases that are associated with traditional stats and varying styles of play. Across several sports, though, a very useful stat is Pythagorean winning percentage, which sounds a lot like that thing you should have learned in high school geometry, but didn't. The basic premise is that the total number of runs/points scored by a team versus how many it gives up should be a decent predictor of its record.

After having given up 662 runs to scoring 650, the Orioles' projected record is 72-76. In other words, the Orioles should be closer to Kansas City's record of 66-81 than to New York's of 83-63.

The difference in games between a team's actual record and its projected record is sometimes referred to as its "Luck" over the course of a season. Baltimore's luck score is currently at 11. That's not unheard of in the wild card era. In the past 10 years, there have been teams projected to win about 90 games that instead got to the 100-win plateau like the 2004 Yankees and the 2008 Angels. But perhaps the best comparisons to the 2012 Orioles are the 2007 Diamondbacks and 1997 Giants, who each scored less runs than they allowed and made the playoffs. Both were ultimately swept out of the playoffs before the World Series.

So then, how have the Orioles achieved such a stellar mark despite everything else indicating another mediocre season in Baltimore?

The answer lies in extra-inning games and one-run games.

By now, you probably know that the Orioles have an unbelievable extra-innings win streak going, extended by that 18-inning Tuesday win in Seattle. It now stands at 14 games, the second longest in baseball history.

However, Baltimore's record in one-run games may be more impressive. In 2012, the Orioles have played 35 one-run games. They have won over three-quarters of them, for a 27-8 mark. No team has more than 27 one-run wins, and no other team has less than 10 one-run losses this season. Such records in the tightest of games are unheard of. Only one team in baseball history, the 1981 Orioles (in a strike-shortened season), won 75 percent of their one-run games.

The one-run and extra-inning records lead one to believe that the Orioles are masters of clutch hitting, which they are. But even more important for Baltimore has been its bullpen, which just doesn't let teams score in tight games. One key is that all of the Orioles' top relievers are strong. Closer Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Luis Ayala, and Darren O'Day all have ERAs under 3 and have thrown more than 60 innings. When Troy Patton returns from injury in the coming days, that gives Buck Showalter yet another solid option in relief.

Conventional wisdom says the Orioles don't have the horses in the batting order to keep up in October, and that the below average starting rotation will get hammered by the all-star laden lineups of Texas or New York. Conventional wisdom hasn't been following the Orioles in 2012.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 12:37 PM | Comments (0)

September 19, 2012

Why the NHL Lockout is the Same, But Different

Here we go again. Or if you prefer, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Whatever cliché you'd like to apply, the NHL's once again in a lockout after many years of shiny NHL press releases claiming record-breaking revenue. But for those of you fearing that the NHLPA and NHL will torpedo another full season, there's reasons to put those fears aside.

Many optimists (myself included) see a regular season starting in November, and while there certainly are those who will poke holes in that theory, this CBA negotiation doesn't seem to come with the vitriol of the lost 2004-05 season.

Of course, it's not all smiles and rainbows. Here are three big reasons why the current NHL lockout is like — and unlike — the 2004-05 lockout. First, let's start with the broken record — why this is just like that nightmare year.

No. 1: It's about money.

Sorry, fans, there's no way around it — it's $3.3 billion that the owners and players both want. As fans, many of us simply can't grasp what it must be like playing Monopoly with that kind of money, but it's the truth. So forget any PR spin you hear from the PA or the owners; this is union/employer negotiation, no matter how you dress it up, and it's simply about money.

No. 2: They're both at fault.

Donald Fehr said that the PA's late start in negotiations (around July) was due to the fact that he was meeting with players and educating them. Sure, there's an element of truth to that, but don't you think he couldn't have multi-tasked by getting preliminary work done? As for the owners, don't you think they could have had a more realistic starting offer than the one they sent out in July? Both sides of this have toyed with time, probably in an effort to try and leverage whatever perceived outside pressure they could.

The bottom line is that the point we're currently at — where the final money split is only a few percentage points away from agreement — could have been achieved months ago if both parties started this in better faith.

No. 3: Expect roster changes when this is settled.

Many teams still have holes to fill, and many unrestricted free agents are still seeking homes. As for that salary cap? Well, there's a good chance that it's going to be a little (or a lot) different from where it was on July 1. That means that when the CBA is settled, there will probably be a flurry of activity. Much of it will simply be unpredictable from today's perspective, as we don't know if there will be a buyout or amnesty clause that forces teams under the cap, or if a new cap system will be grandfathered in.

That's the bad news. The good news? Though the chasm is "wide" (their words, not mine), a lot of that seems to be PR posturing. When you break it down, the biggest hurdle seems to be about details rather than big-picture points. Here are three reasons why this lockout is different from 2004-05 (and that's a good thing).

No. 1: They're talking.

For those of you with long memories, the 2004-05 NHL lockout was a war of attrition — one that featured lengthy periods of time with no communication between parties. Other times, you'd get reports of representatives turning up for meetings and after a few cursory conversations, both sides would leave.

In this year's edition — and perhaps it's just more visible because of the advent of social media — there does seem to be consistent communication between parties, even if Gary Bettman and Donald Fehr aren't directly involved. And while there's certainly a bit of PR spin from both sides, by all reports the mood in the room has been professional and businesslike compared to the 2004-05 talks, which seemed to ooze venom and negativity – Bill Daly himself has even stated that the mood seems different.

No. 2: They're not trying to change the system.

The 2004-05 lockout was about one thing: the salary cap. The rest of the systemic changes were scraps and consolation. The cap itself is a gigantic systemic shift, one that changed things from a completely free marketplace to one with an artificial ceiling designed to slow the cost of goods (which is essentially what the players are in pro sports).

This year, however, everyone seems to know what the end game is — a roughly 50/50 split in revenues between the league and the players. The argument, then, is about how to get there. The league wants an immediate dollars-and-cents change based on escrow and hard percentage shifts. The PA wants a system that's phased in using lowered percentages based on projected revenue growth (don't feel bad if that sentence confuses you).

No. 3: There's agreement on "smaller" issues.

Both the league and the PA have separated CBA talks into "core economic" and "secondary hockey" issues. What this means is that the economics — that is, the actual money and everything related to it — is the point of contention that has stopped forward progress.

However, in parallel, both parties have worked in smaller groups and have reportedly found quite a bit of common ground on the secondary issues. That's important, because if you've ever dared to look at the actual CBA, you'll see that only a fraction of its 454 pages actually deal with core economics. There's just a lot of legalese and operational mumbo-jumbo that the fans either don't know about or don't care about. If many of these have some measure of principle agreement, that means that an actual CBA can come together quicker once the core economics have been agreed upon.

Posted by Mike Chen at 7:01 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 27

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski won the Geico 400, taking round one of the Chase For the Cup after holding off Jimmie Johnson at Chicagoland. Keselowski leads the point standings, 3 ahead of Johnson.

"I'm aiming to be Roger Penske's first Sprint Cup champion," Keselowski said. "Nothing beats flying the checkered flag, except the 'Jolly Roger.'

"This could be the making of a great rivalry with Johnson. I took it to him; now I want to take it from him."

2. Jimmie Johnson — After starting from the pole, Johnson led a race-high 172 laps but couldn't close the deal at Chicagoland, finishing second to Brad Keselowski's late rush. Johnson now trails Keselowski by 3 in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"Keselowski's win had the makings of a 'statement' victory," Johnson said. "Luckily for me, Keselowski doesn't make statements, he makes 'tweets.' Kes has hundreds of thousands of followers; I'm not one of them. I only follow two people — Richard Petty and dale Earnhardt."

3. Tony Stewart — Stewart overcame a poor qualifying effort (29th), as well as an extra pit stop to correct a vibration, to finish a solid sixth in the Geico 400, a solid start to his defense of the 2011 Sprint Cup title. He trails Brad Keselowski by eight in the point standings.

"The vibration was a potentially disastrous situation," Stewart said, "but we handled it like champions. You could say we were 'shaken, not stirred.'"

4. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin ran out of fuel late in the Geico 400, turning a likely top-10 finish into a 16th. The result dropped him from the top spot in the point standings to a tie for fourth, 15 behind Brad Keselowski.

"What's the bigger miscalculation?" Hamlin asked. "Me running out of gas, or people predicting me to come through when the pressure's on? I had to make a late stop to 'top off.' For that reason, I'm 'off the top.'"

5. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished third in the Geico 400, and leaped five spots in the point standings to fourth, where he is 15 points out of the lead.

"I think my competitors are aware that I'll be around until the end," Kahne said. "Despite leaving a number of racing teams in my career, I think it's apparent that I won't 'go away easily.'"

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer led six laps at Chicagoland on his way to a 10th-place finish. He is now 15 points out of first in the point standings.

"We could have used a dose of 5-Hour Energy," Bowyer said, "because that was a 'ho-hum' finish."

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt qualified fourth, but started at the back of the field after an engine change, and salvaged a solid eighth in the Geico 400. He is 17 points behind Brad Keselowski in the point standings.

"I guess it's time I show what I'm made of," Earnhardt said. "You'd think the name alone would be enough, but I guess I have to prove it as much on the track as I do in the merchandise trailers."

8. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex posted his 15th top-10 finish of the year with a ninth at Chicagoland, but made up little ground to the Chasers in front of him. He is now ninth in the point standings, 21 out of first.

"I need a win," Truex said. "In other words, I need to get going. NASCAR just reinstated A.J. Allmendinger, so maybe he can recommend a good 'stimulant' to get me going."

9. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 18th, one lap down to the leaders, after a broken shock ruined his quest for a victory run at Chicagoland. He

"We're certainly disappointed in our shock failure," Kenseth said. "Such a finish is tough to swallow, and even harder to absorb."

10. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished 13th, tops among Roush Fenway's three car team. After leading the point standings for much of the year, it was a disappointing start to the Chase for the 3M team.

"We certainly weren't on our game," Biffle said. "I guess you could say for the start of the Chase we were 'off and running.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

September 18, 2012

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* After only two games, Houston DE J.J. Watt has 3 sacks, 5 pass deflections, and a fumble recovery. Wow.

* Favorite announcer quote of Week 2, from Dan Dierdorf: "If Andy Reid is nothing, he's not adventurous."

* Even though Dierdorf bungled the quote, he's absolutely right. Have you seen the size of Andy Reid? He is definitely not nothing. And if he's not nothing, it follows that he is adventurous. That's the genius of Dierdorf's poetry: it makes you think, man.

* Starting QBs with passer ratings under 75 so far this season: Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill, plus Jay Cutler, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, and Matthew Stafford. Weeden and Tannehill are rookies, but those other four are supposed to be elite players.

* Mark Sanchez dropped back 29 times against Pittsburgh and completed 10 passes. Shonn Greene averaged 2.1 yards per rush and suffered a head injury.

***

I was going to write about the Week 2 officiating in this space, but really, why bother? We all know it was unacceptable: rules misunderstood, calls missed, near-brawls and not enough control over player aggression, plus way too much time taken to make decisions. I'm sure the replacement referees are doing their best (the ones who aren't Saints fans, anyway), but in Week 2, they weren't good enough. Here's hoping most of the bigger problems are fixed by Week 3.

More significant is the passing of NFL Films President Steve Sabol. The league has a nice tribute up on its website, but it's difficult to capture the impact of NFL Films, and of Steve Sabol in particular. I've loved football since I was a kid, going to games with my grandfather at a worn-down stadium that shook when the fans were excited. In all my years watching the sport, probably no player contributed as much to my enjoyment of football as Steve Sabol did.

For five decades, NFL Films has preserved the past, captured the present, and anticipated the future. It is and has been a ground-breaking organization, and Sabol was the most important sports filmmaker of all time — in any sport. He won Emmy Awards in five categories, the most of anyone in television history: cinematography, editing, writing, directing, and producing. He received a Lifetime Achievement Emmy for “revolutionizing the way America watches football and setting the standard in sports filmmaking.” The NFL Network video tribute notes that Sabol "transformed NFL Films from simple chroniclers of the game to epic myth-makers," and that's not just purple prose, it's true. Sabol was the driving force behind how we watch and appreciate football today, and the NFL has lost one of the greatest people ever associated with the league.

As we continue to this week's power rankings, brackets show last week's rank.

1. Houston Texans [3] — Easily lead the NFL in fewest yards allowed (392, under 200 per game) and fewest points allowed (17). In Week 2, they tripled Jacksonville's yardage (411-117), first downs (28-9), and points (27-7). So far this season, Houston has 78:01 time of possession, compared to 41:59 for its opponents. The schedule gets tougher in Week 3, with a road trip to Denver.

2. San Francisco 49ers [4] — Highest passer ratings in the NFL: (1) Matt Ryan, 117.6, (2) Alex Smith, 115.9. When the Niners improved from 6-10 (in 2010) to 13-3 last year, most of the credit went to new coach Jim Harbaugh, along with defensive acquisitions like Carlos Rogers and Aldon Smith. The single biggest turnaround for San Francisco may be Smith. After nearly a decade of consistently poor quarterback play, to have Smith go out there and be above average — maybe even good — is a revelation.

3. Atlanta Falcons [2] — Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, and Roddy White already combine for 36 receptions, 434 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Each has double-digit catches, over 120 yards, and at least one score. The team looks great, so I'm going to nitpick. Why on earth did Dominique Franks choose not to field Britton Colquitt's second punt in the third quarter? It landed at the 26-yard line and rolled to the Falcons' 4. That's 22 yards of important field position.

4. Green Bay Packers [6] — Defense owned the Bears, with particularly strong performances from Clay Matthews and Tramon Williams. But that's the second week in a row the offense has struggled. Last season, Aaron Rodgers looked unstoppable. This season, he still hasn't found his rhythm.

5. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Under John Harbaugh, they're 28-5 at home and 17-16 on the road. Rookie kicker Justin Tucker played well (field goals of 56, 51 and 48 yards), but Joe Flacco appeared indecisive and confused making his reads, and the defense committed uncharacteristic errors. On Jeremy Maclin's third quarter touchdown, Cary Williams and Ed Reed apparently forgot that Michael Vick was allowed to throw. The collective decision not to cover Brent Celek, in retrospect, was probably unwise. Celek (8 rec, 157 yds) was repeatedly wide open, literally uncovered.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers [9] — Easily beat the Jets, who were missing their best player, despite missing two of their own best players. Troy Polamalu is expected to play next week in Oakland, but the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Sunday that all-pro LB James Harrison probably won't be available until after the Week 4 bye. The Steeler pass rush has been inconsistent without him.

7. Philadelphia Eagles [11] — Last year, this was a talented team that on good days looked like it could compete with anyone, but often found creative and mysterious ways to lose. This season, the problems are still there — nine turnovers in two weeks! — but the Eagles have escaped with close victories. If you can commit three red-zone turnovers against a good team like the Ravens and still win, imagine what might happen if you can eliminate the mistakes. DeSean Jackson made some tough catches in traffic this week, the kind he so seldom converted last year.

8. Arizona Cardinals [15] — Not only did they beat the Patriots in New England, they did it with Larry Fitzgerald catching one pass for 4 yards. Kevin Kolb was unspectacular (140 yds, TD, 82.3 rating), and the running backs were downright bad (57 yds, 2.4 avg), but the defense played well enough that Kolb finished with a better passer rating than Tom Brady (79.6) and the Cardinals outrushed the Patriots (105-90). Calais Campbell (2 sacks) and Daryl Washington (11 solo tackles) played well.

9. New England Patriots [1] — Lost at home for the first time in more than a year, and lost Aaron Hernandez to an ankle injury. On a day when former Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri made a 53-yard, game-winning kick with :08 left, current Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski made four field goals, including three from beyond 45 yards, but missed the potential game-winner from 42. During the CBS halftime show, Bill Cowher referred to him as "Stephen Congovski." A tough Week 3 game in Baltimore could set New England up for a 1-2 start to the season. It sounds like Hernandez will miss at least a month.

10. Chicago Bears [7] — Jay Cutler got no help on Thursday from his offensive teammates: missed blocks, dropped passes, drive-killing penalties. But Cutler, now in his 7th season, is still a rookie. He threw 4 interceptions and took 7 sacks. Cutler has often been criticized for his lack of on-field maturity, and the reason was obvious Thursday, when a visibly frustrated Baby Jay repeatedly forced throws into coverage. Most stunning, though, was his total refusal to throw the ball away. The offensive line didn't play well, but most of those sacks were Cutler's fault. At a certain point, you've got to the get the ball out of your hand. Also: criticizing teammates who screw up is a form of leadership, but so is owning some of the blame for your own mistakes. Cutler's great at one of those.

11. Detroit Lions [8] — Every defense they play will go to extraordinary lengths to shut down Calvin Johnson, because this team has no other weapons. Matthew Stafford put up big numbers last year, but he has not played well the last two weeks. His accuracy is off, and he's too locked in on Johnson.

12. San Diego Chargers [13] — Won time of possession by more than 27 minutes. Philip Rivers looks like he did a couple years ago, and Dante Rosario scored 3 touchdowns in place of the injured Antonio Gates, but this win was about defense. The Titans gained only 9 first downs, and went 1/9 on third down conversions.

13. Seattle Seahawks [17] — Played well last season, and they're a great home team. The hard-hitting Seahawks lead the NFL with 6 forced fumbles. I believe this is a top-10 defense, and with Marshawn Lynch, Seattle can control the clock and score enough to win. 50-50 they beat Green Bay in Week 3. The line is +3½.

14. Denver Broncos [14] — Overcame four first-quarter turnovers, including three interceptions on their first three drives, to make the game exciting in the fourth quarter. I'm struck by how great Willis McGahee looks. Obviously he's getting help from his blockers and from Peyton Manning's play-calling, but McGahee's been impressive. Demaryius Thomas is clearly Manning's favorite new receiver.

15. New York Jets [10] — Not a great defense without Darrelle Revis, not a great offense without facing Buffalo.

16. Dallas Cowboys [12] — Everyone criticizes Andy Reid for calling too many passes and not enough runs. Can we call out Jason Garrett for the same problem? Against Seattle, DeMarco Murray carried 12 times, and Tony Romo dropped back 42.

17. New York Giants [16] — There are three active QBs with more than 10 three-interception games: Peyton Manning (16), Drew Brees (13), and Eli Manning (13). Peyton and Brees are a combined 3-26 in those games, while Eli's Giants are 4-9. That's still winning less than a third of the time, but it's remarkable how often the Giants overcome Eli's mistakes. Other notable QB records in 3-INT games: Tom Brady (0-8), Jay Cutler (0-7), Mark Sanchez (0-6), Ben Roethlisberger (1-8), Michael Vick (2-1).

18. Cincinnati Bengals [18] — Andy Dalton had a nice game against Cleveland, but the defense made Browns rookies Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson look like All-Pros. Adam Jones, the artist formerly known as Pacman, returned a punt for a touchdown on Sunday, the 5th PR TD of his career but the first since 2006.

19. Buffalo Bills [22] — Led 35-3 before a garbage-time comeback from Kansas City made the score look respectable. C.J. Spiller (29 att, 292 yds) is the first player since Jim Brown in 1963 to average 10 yards a carry through two games (h/t Yahoo!). Ryan Fitzpatrick is the only starting QB in the NFL who hasn't been sacked this season.

20. St. Louis Rams [24] — Best free agent acquisition of 2012: after only two games, Cortland Finnegan has 15 tackles, 2 interceptions, a touchdown, and a mean streak that inspired a game-saving penalty. In Week 1, the Rams almost beat Detroit, and in Week 2, they topped a hyped Washington team. In Week 3, the Rams travel to Chicago to face a Bears team that was all kinds of terrible on Thursday. So why is Chicago favored by more than a touchdown? I don't know, either, but I say Vegas knows something the rest of us don't. Bears by double-digits, for no good reason other than the line.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Gave up five completions of 20 yards or more in the fourth quarter, allowing 25 points and blowing a 27-13 lead. Before that, however, the defense shut down Cam Newton and intercepted Eli Manning three times, including one returned for a touchdown. Facing two explosive offenses, the Bucs' defense has yielded only 7/23 third-down conversions (30%), 7th-best in the NFL so far.

22. Carolina Panthers [27] — Three rushers over 50 yards, including Cam Newton (career-high 71). At this time last season, Newton had thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, gotten sacked eight times, and rushed for 71 yards in both games combined. Expectations are so high, it's easy to miss that in some ways he's already better than last year. Newton leads the NFL in yards per completion (15.0) and plays of 20 yards or more (12).

23. New Orleans Saints [20] — Worst in the NFL in yards allowed (922) and tied with Kansas City for most points allowed (75). Eight different players have scored touchdowns against the Saints after only two games.

24. Washington Redskins [19] — A lot went wrong. Sav Rocca had another punt blocked. Adam Carricker and Brian Orakpo left the game with injuries, and won't play again this season, which is the biggest reason for their drop in the rankings. But with 1:18 left in the game, and Washington in position to attempt a game-tying 47-yard field goal, Josh Morgan went berserk. Andy Behrens called it "a killer unsportsmanlike penalty at an unbelievably bad time." The L.A. Times called it "mindless." Frank Schwab called it "one of the worst penalties in NFL history." In retaliation for a light shove, Morgan wound up and threw the ball at Cortland Finnegan, an obvious 15-yard penalty that pushed Washington out of realistic field goal range. Billy Cundiff's 62-yard attempt missed by a mile.

It was reminiscent of the famous "Gus Frerotte Headbutt" game, a 7-7 tie in which the Frerotte sprained his neck celebrating a touchdown, but also the game in which Michael Westbrook ripped off his helmet and drew the same 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty as Morgan, pushing Washington out of field goal range (a 54-yarder came up short).

25. Kansas City Chiefs [21] — Lost to the Bills by 18. The Bills lost to the Jets by 20. The Jets lost to the Steelers by 17. Pittsburgh lost to Denver by 12. Therefore, the Chiefs would lose to the Broncos by 67. Actually, we could take this a step further, since the Broncos lost to Atlanta by six, but Kansas City already lost to Atlanta by 16, not 73.

26. Miami Dolphins [29] — Great week for rookie QBs. Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson (SEA), and Andrew Luck (IND) all got their first pro wins, while Robert Griffin III and Brandon Weeden played well in defeat. Tannehill connected nine times with Brian Hartline (111 yds) and Reggie Bush seems determined to prove that last year's 1,000-yard, 5-per-carry campaign was no fluke. The defense did a nice job shutting down Darren McFadden.

27. Oakland Raiders [25] — Zero ground game. No one doubts that McFadden can play, but he's averaging 2.1 yards per attempt. That leaves the team in lots of third-and-long, so they went 1/12 on third downs against Miami. In awesome news, you know how pregame shows always list the significant actives and inactives among injured players? NFL Network had long snapper Jon Condo on its active list! The long snapper! I can't wait for the other six signs of the apocalypse.

28. Cleveland Browns [28] — Two losses by a total of eight points. If they're going anywhere at all this season, a Week 3 home game against Buffalo is the time to prove it.

29. Tennessee Titans [23] — Blown out for the second week in a row. Quarterback Jake Locker is the team's leading rusher; Chris Johnson has 19 carries for 21 yards. I have Tennessee rated as the second-best team in the AFC South right now, which is sad.

30. Indianapolis Colts [32] — Most clutch kicker in NFL history: Adam Vinatieri made a 53-yard, game-winning kick with :08 left. The Colts' Week 1 defensive meltdown against the Bears is even more troubling after Chicago's offensive disaster in Week 2.

31. Minnesota Vikings [30] — Christian Ponder passed for 245 yards and a 114.6 rating, but at some point he needs to stretch the field vertically. Blair Walsh had another nice game, connecting on a 51-yard field goal in the first quarter.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — Went 0/9 on third downs and gained a franchise-low 117 yards. That doesn't even sound so bad when you consider that they had -4 at halftime.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:19 PM | Comments (2)

September 17, 2012

Agents of Misfortune?

Just when you might have thought it safe to think baseball's war with actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances had turned toward a kind of quiet conquest, 2012 has reminded us that battles may be won, but the war isn't quite finished yet. From Melky Cabrera's synthetic testosterone and an associate's clumsy bid to shield it with a fake website to Bartolo Colon's synthetic testosterone.

And, to a point or two around the periphery, part of which seems to involve Cabrera's associate a little further and the infamous Mitchell Report a little deeper. Deeper as in a depth to which the report may not have gone, for all its flaws and fineries alike.

The report didn't quite go so far as to draw in information that might have linked a players' agent or two to the provision of actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances. But a former player has, now. Two major newspapers at least, if not jumping all over it, are stepping gently but firmly onto the carpet. And the Major League Baseball Players' Association is just as interested as baseball government now in getting to, shall we say, the bottom of just which agents to which extent have abetted the aforesaid provisions, then or even now.

Baseball government was already trying to find Cabrera's source when Paul Lo Duca, the former Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets catcher, named in the Mitchell Report over his use and apparent advocacy of human growth hormone, came into their view once again, and Lo Duca may be cooperating with the new probe. It involves his former agents, Seth and Sam Levinson, at whom USA Today baseball writer Bob Nightengale says Lo Duca is pointing a firm and troubling finger.

"Three people with knowledge of the investigation" told Nightengale baseball government wants to know whether the Levinsons hooked Lo Duca up with Kirk Radomski, the former Mets' clubhouse attendant who turned out to be in the steroid distribution mess up to his earlobes. This has emerged in the process of the Cabrera investigation, which launched after the San Francisco Giants' outfielder was suspended fifty games over a failed test for synthetic testosterone last month.

"The people told USA Today Sports that Lo Duca alleges Seth and Sam Levinson, through their firm ACES Inc., introduced him to Radomski," Nightengale continues. "Lo Duca also alleges a checking account was opened for Lo Duca to pay Radomski for steroids, human growth hormone, amphetamines and sexual-enhancement drugs, according to the people." The paper also says it got hold of "a copy of one check, showing the names of Lo Duca and Samuel W. Levinson/CO ACES Inc. as joint account holders. The check, dated Aug. 7, 2004, shows the same address as the Levinsons' Brooklyn office."

The New York Times goes a half-step further. "[I]n recent weeks," write Michael D. Schmidt and Juliet Macur, "questions have arisen about why information that might have implicated two of the game's more prominent agents in providing their clients with drugs never made it into the report."

"The two people Mitchell based much of his report on — a convicted steroids dealer and a trainer — have confirmed that they told Mitchell in the course of his investigation that the agents, Sam and Seth Levinson, played a role in helping their clients procure steroids.

"It is unclear what, if anything, Mitchell and his team of lawyers did with the information about the Levinsons. But the Levinsons, who are brothers, are not named in the report. Several of the players they represented are."

The Levinsons are not talking yet, if at all, other than to suggest Lo Duca signed the aforesaid and possible other checks without the agents' knowing about it. The Mitchell Report included copies of cashed checks among its evidence about which players bought which actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances, redacting information on those checks usually when it involved players' home addresses, the Times noted. Usually, but not exclusively. The report compilers redacted check information on those written by Lo Duca on an account the former catcher had joint with the Levinsons' agency, on which the checks themselves included the Levinsons' Brooklyn office address.

If you don't count a last call with the 2010 Colorado Rockies (he signed as a backup that January and was released four months later), Lo Duca retired after the 2008 season, following a modest 2007 in Washington and a cup of coffee with the Florida Marlins in late 2008. Rather an ignominious finish for a man once considered among the National League's catching elite.

When the Dodgers traded Lo Duca to the Marlins at the 2004 non-waiver trade deadline, with outfielder Juan Encarnacion and relief star Guillermo Mota, the deal stunned Los Angeles. The Dodgers themselves mourned the loss of one of the team leaders; Lo Duca, for his part, wept when talking to reporters before departing. The Marlins, for their part, flipped Lo Duca to the Mets for a pair of minor leaguers at 2005′s end, part of a Marlins' salary dump.

Little by little, details of Lo Duca's hGH involvement swelled, to the point where he might have been seen as the Dodgers' Johnny Appleseed when it came to the substance. The Mitchell Report noted three checks from Lo Duca to Radomski, with whom the catcher dealt by phone but never in person, and a trend of Lo Duca having introduced a number of Dodger teammates to Radomski — including closing star Eric Gagne (who has since admitted to and regretted using hGH in a battle against his frequent injuries), starting pitcher Kevin Brown (who'd later be murdered, as a Yankee, to open Game 7 of the Boston Red Sox's improbably impossible 2004 American League Championship Series conquest), and relief pitcher Matt Herges.

The report also cites a 2003 meeting among Dodger officials, apparently looking toward 2004, that bumped into whether some players were dipping into the AA/PED waters. "Steroids aren't being used anymore on [Lo Duca]. Big part of this. Might have some value to trade ... Florida might have interest … Got off the steroids … Took away a lot of hard line drives ... Can get comparable value back would consider trading ... If you do trade him, will get back on the stuff and try to show you he can have a good year. That's his makeup. Comes to play. Last year of contract, playing for '05." As in, 2005, the year in which baseball government banned hGH at last.

If the Dodgers unloaded Lo Duca (he and his two fellow travelers were traded for Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny, and a minor leaguer) and Mota (who has just returned from a second suspension involving clenbuterol, a decongestant believed able to increase aerobic capacity) in a bid to rid their clubhouse of their number one steroid purveyor, it wasn't much discussed in those terms when the deal was made. The Dodgers believed Brad Penny to be the key to the deal since they needed rotation help at the time.

Nobody until now has suggested much in the way of anything in terms of whether any player's agent had any hand in a client's involvement with the substances.

But would it prove a real shock to learn if any agents did? Shuddering over Scott Boras's hardball contract negotiating is about as rare as a sacrifice fly. But Boras has a parallel reputation for fierce protection of his clients, all the way to their physical health. He was and remains on board absolutely with the Washington Nationals' Strasburg Plan; he probably based it on his earlier experience representing one-time Atlanta Braves pitching star Steve Avery, whose career was compromised, then ruined by an armpit muscle injury. Discovering any agent helping his client attain actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances without a legitimate medical prescription, even if the basic idea is swifter injury recovery, is something else entirely.

The suspicions could cause headaches for the Levinsons, above and beyond Lo Duca's finger pointing. Among the players they now represent is another Met star, third baseman David Wright; Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia; ex-Red Sox and current Philadelphia closer Jonathan Papelbon; former Phillies and current Dodger outfielder Shane Victorino; and, Cincinnati Reds third baseman Scott Rolen.

None of those players has ever been suspected of any involvement in actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances. They should not be suspected now, without a crazy little thing called evidence. But Juan Nunez, the Cabrera associate who posted the phony Website on which Cabrera planned to lean in a grievance he dropped when the Nunez scheme was exposed, is a Levinsons' consultant who's since been barred from major league clubhouses. And if Lo Duca proves right about their steerage to Radomski, it may bring suspicion against any Levinson client or associate. Not to mention a swift exodus from their counsel.

The Mitchell Report emerged just days after Lo Duca, then a free agent, signed a one-season deal with the Nationals. When spring training 2008 opened, Lo Duca issued a statement: "In regards to the Mitchell Report," it said, "I apologize to my family, all my fans and the entire baseball community for mistakes in judgment I made." Pressed for a bit more at the time by the Los Angeles Times, he said he respected former Sen. George Mitchell's work and that the probers were "cleaning up the game. I'm 100% in favor of the report. It's not a lie. I'm not saying that to say that. I am. But I just never spoke to him."

He's speaking now, apparently, about his former agents. The Levinsons deny Lo Duca's implications admantly. "The allegations against us have no merit and are utterly baseless," said Seth Levinson in a statement. "We've spent 27 years representing players with heart and integrity, and baseless accusations are certainly never going to stop us." And Wright, who could be looking at a contract extension worth nine figures with the Mets, has defended the Levinsons to CBS Sports. "I had a long conversation with them about it," he told CBS's Jon Heyman. "Of course you want to be informed. I have all the faith and trust in the world in these guys. I've seen firsthand the integrity they have for the game."

Heaven help the Levinsons and their current clients if Lo Duca proves right, they prove wrong, and the Mitchell Report proves negligent in bypassing any role played by any sports agent in the mess. Letting juicy stories get in the way of facts isn't likely to fall out of style any time soon. Neither is guilt by association.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:33 PM | Comments (2)

Encounters With the Superfan

Two weeks ago, I made the trek back to my alma mater to see Urban Meyer's debut as Ohio State head football coach. It was a humid, overcast day made even stickier by the typical throng of fans on campus for game day. Freshmen in their first weeks away from home sported fresh-from-the-bookstore official jerseys, while older fans wore a mix of off-brand team gear and time-faded lucky t-shirts.

As I made my way toward the stadium along Lane Avenue, a familiar figure emerged from the scarlet-clad sea of humanity. His white cowboy hat and cape were unmistakeable, but it was his Kool-aid red mustache that confirmed his identity. I was standing face-to-face with Buck-i-Guy.

A split second after recognizing the omnipresent OSU fan, my brain searched for the appropriate reaction. Cell phone picture? Heckling? Spirited High-five? (Clearly man has not adapted his fight-or-flight response to the 21st century.)

Still puzzled, I shuffled through the crowd to my seat, but some part of me was haunted by that visage of superfandom. Is Buck-i-Guy a better fan than I? Should I care? And most of all, why in the name of Vic Janowitz would anyone do that every Saturday for three months?

Jerry Seinfeld famously joked that sports fans root for laundry, but nowhere is that truer than in college football where players have shorter shelf-lives than presidents. And considering that most of us experience these players no more than 14 times in each of those years, the relationship is especially short.

But the college football fan-player relationship is strangely intense. The players' decisions to come to our schools are causes for celebration, rumors of practice exploits titillate us, and their best moments bring many of us to outright ecstasy. In extreme cases, it even causes a few to wear cowboy hats, capes, and, yes, dye their mustaches. To those outside sports fandom, it must seem bizarre.

A week after my trip to the Horseshoe, I watched OSU's second game against Central Florida at home on TV. I had the game on as background noise while I did some work when Joey Galloway, the former Buckeye wide receiver and new ESPN color commentator, revealed something that floored me. Galloway told the national audience that he saw the Ohio State Marching Band's "Script Ohio" routine for the first time that day.

The OSU band is one of the most famous college bands in the country, even getting a shout out from Jim Tressel after the Buckeyes won the 2002 national championship. They perform their gradual march into a script formation of "Ohio" before or at halftime of every home game. Somehow one of the stars of recent Ohio State history had missed one of the core traditions virtually every Buckeye fan has seen in person or during broadcasts. The version of Ohio State football Galloway knows did not include a core piece of tradition from the version so many Buckeye fans love.

All of this brings us back to the red-mustached celebrity I walked by in Columbus two weeks ago. For most of us, three full months of obligatory Saturdays spent getting dressed up, fighting traffic, and staying in one place for hours is a lot to ask of our closest friends and family, let alone dozens of young strangers and a handful of grumpy workaholics. But for superfans, this is a calling.

On the surface, superfans like Buck-i-Guy seem like attention-seeking reality stars. They create a persona that gets them on TV, and in their own minds, they become a part of their team's game day experience. Really, we should pity them.

But on the other hand, who are we to judge the enthusiasm these men (shockingly, they're almost exclusively male)? If Joey Galloway's perception of OSU football is significantly different from mine, why shouldn't Buck-i-Guy's? The college football experience varies wildly, and there is no way to say anybody's is best.

We may not understand these self-made superfans. What, exactly, do they get out of the excessive investment of their identities? I have no idea, but I'm glad they are around. For all of their strange attempts to implant themselves into gameday tradition, there is something comforting about knowing someone takes these games more seriously than you.

Saturdays in the fall are special to college football fans of many shades. Does it really matter why?

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:42 AM | Comments (0)

September 13, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 2

Note:the quotes in this article are fictional.

Chicago @ Green Bay (-4)

The Bears and Packers meet after a short week, and nothing says "short" like Cee Lo Green, the bug-eyed gremlin tabbed by the NFL Network to perform the Thursday Night Football musical number. The Packers hope to avoid an 0-2 start on the season, while the Bears look for the early upper hand in the NFC North.

"We're still working out the kinks of our defense," Charles Woodson, "and so is the opposition. They seem to be having more luck with it, though. Our defense certainly doesn't strike fear into the hearts of opponents. Clay Matthews used to make offensive linemen swoon; now it's only women.

"No one is afraid of going across the middle on our defense. That is, no one except Cee Lo, because he's definitely got alligator arms."

The Bears whipped the Colts last week, as Brandon Marshall, acquired from the Dolphins this offseason, caught 9 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown.

"Brandon spells trouble for any team," Jay Cutler said. "Often, it's the team he plays for. Brandon has the size of Terrell Owens and the athleticism of Randy Moss, and the emotional baggage of both."

Do we sense the balance of power shifting in the NFC North? Should the Bears win, it will have shifted. Should the Packers win, the balance of power will have shifted even more, in seismic proportions, in fact, because the 2-0 Vikings will be sitting atop the division.

Aaron Rodgers puts his team on his back, including the Packer defense, which is quite a burden, and throws for 3 touchdowns and rushes for another. Cutler and the Bears battle score for score, but a late pass ricochets off Marshall's head and is picked off, leading to the decisive points for the Pack.

Green Bay wins, 34-31.

Tampa @ NY Giants (-9)

The G-Men are still reeling from their opening 24-17 loss to the Cowboys, on a night when their Super Bowl XLVI team was honored, no less. After a long rest, New York hosts the 1-0 Buccaneers and new head coach Greg Schiano, formerly of Rutgers University.

"On a night when our whole team was the toast of the town," Tom Coughlin said, "only our defensive backfield performed like the toast of the town. You better believe they've heard it from me. I don't pull punches. Unlike some former Giants, I shoot from the hip, not at it."

The Bucs, in their Week 1 win over the Panthers, displayed a defensive presence that made Tampa fans nostalgic for the good old days, when the Tampa defense terrorized the league.

"Our defense was impressive indeed," Ronde Barber said. "I hear it even made Warren Sapp salivate, which is not easy to do, unless you're food, or a darn good smokeless tobacco.

"This team is headed to MetLife Stadium with a ton of confidence. That is, everyone except me. I get the impression that Giants' fans hate me. Let me just remind them that although I look exactly like him, I am not Tiki Barber."

New York wins, 27-13.

Oakland @ Miami (+4)

Sixteen teams lost in the NFL's opening week, which means there's 16 fewer teams the 1972 Dolphins have to worry about. One of those teams is the 2012 Dolphins, who lost 30-10 last week to the Texans.

"Hey, we like to do what we can for those old geezers," Joe Philbin said. "I don't think we'll ever see another undefeated team. I would hazard to say that the surviving members will take that undefeated record to their graves. And the sooner the better."

The Raiders began their season with a 22-14 loss to the Chargers, a defeat marked by three botched punts, one of which was blocked, and all of which led to San Diego points.

"Backup long snapper Travis Goethel was terrible," Dennis Allen said. "Not since John Matuszak starred as Sloth in The Goonies has a Raider looked so bad. Against Miami on Sunday, you may see an NFL first — a punter taking the snap from under center."

The search for deep snappers takes the Raiders to the waiver wire, and takes Sebastian Janikowski to South Beach's hottest nightclubs, where he signs numerous autographs, most indicating his agreement to terms of restraining orders.

Darren McFadden rushes for 124 yards and a score, and the Raiders win, 27-14.

Houston @ Jacksonville (+7)

After a slow start, the Texans overwhelmed the Dolphins 30-10, and now head to Jacksonville for the AFC South opener for both teams. Superstars Arian Foster and Andre Johnson accounted for three touchdowns, while Matt Schaub passed for 266 yards, then announced a contract extension.

"In Houston," Schaub said, "when someone asks you to sign something, it's usually a cast. But so far, we're injury-free. The only time I've heard someone say 'Pull!' is when Texans' president Jamey Rootes goes skeet shooting. Rootes is supremely confident that we'll emerge victorious in this game. History indicates that Texas presidents are undefeated against Pakistanis."

Maurice Jones-Drew looked like his old self, rushing for 77 yards on 16 carries in the Jags' 26-23 overtime loss at Minnesota last week.

"Indeed," said Jaguars head coach Mike Mularkey. "Maurice is apparently a lot like Jags' owner Shahid Khan — the holdout had no effect on him. Personally, I think Maurice deserves a new contract. Apparently, Khan doesn't think he can afford it. In other words, MJD was doomed by the 'Math of Khan.'"

Houston wins, 30-13.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-6)

Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden threw four interceptions in the Browns' 17-16 loss to the Eagles last week. It was a nightmarish debut for the former Oklahoma State quarterback, who now faces a solid Cincinnati defense.

"I threw as many picks as Michael Vick," Weeden said. "That was certainly unexpected. But you know what was even more unexpected? Vick throwing as many interceptions as me.

"As you know, cornerback Joe Haden has been suspended four games for testing positive for a banned stimulant. He was taking Adderall, which is banned under the NFL's drug policy. So, much like Adderall, I've been 'flagged,' as well."

The Bengals enter the battle of Ohio reeling after a 44-13 beating at the hands of the Ravens on Monday night.

"This team seriously needs a wake-up call," Marvin Lewis said. "And I don't mean one given by Boomer Esiason pitching 8 O'Clock Coffee. The last Bengal with such ties to Colombian imports was running back Stanley Wilson, and he slept through Super Bowl XXIII after a cocaine bender."

Despite the Browns' organization's objections, the home-standing Bengals proceed with a tribute to Modell, as Scottish rockers Nazareth reunite to sing "Please Don't Judas Me" before the game.

Things go downhill immediately for the Browns, as Weeden, during the performance of the national anthem, courtesy of funk legends Ohio Players, gets his right hand stuck in his jersey.

The Bengals bounce back, as Andy Dalton throws for two scores to A.J. Green, and Benjarvis Green-Ellis punches in a short score.

Cincinnati wins, 27-6.

Kansas City @ Buffalo (-3)

The Chiefs and Bills both lost big last week, disappointing starts for what many believe could be playoff-caliber teams. Sunday's loser will be 0-2 and facing an uphill climb to a playoff berth.

"I may be the NFL's most inconsistent quarterback," Ryan Fitzpatrick said. "I'm brilliant one minute, and terrible the next 14. Luckily, I've got a Harvard education to fall back on. I'm the master of accumulating 'Harvard Yardage,' which is passing yardage gained well after the game's outcome has been determined."

The Chiefs will need a better effort all around, especially on defense, to win in Buffalo. And speaking of "all around," Romeo Crenel is the Kansas City head coach.

"I'm mystified by our performance last Sunday," Crenel said. "We just didn't show up. It was a disappearing act that would have made Penn and Teller proud. By the way, what do you get when you combine me and one-half of Penn And Teller? 'Romeo and Jillette.'"

Kansas City wins, 24-22.

Baltimore @ Philadelphia (-2½)

After squeaking by the Browns 17-16 last week, Michael Vick and the Eagles continue the Art Modell Farewell Tour, hosting the Ravens at Lincoln Financial Field.

"I hear Modell was hated in Cleveland," Vick said, "but loved in Baltimore. I know what it's like to be detested, and so does Vince Young — he was after scoring a one on the Wonderlic test.

"But we'll have to be at our best against the Ravens. I certainly can't turn the ball over four times like I did last week. I think it's best that I place the football in protective custody."

Baltimore pummeled the Bengals, offensively and defensively, in a 44-13 win on Monday night. The Ravens, led by aging veterans Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, have their work cut out in defending against Vick and a potentially explosive Eagles offense.

"If it's not Hines Ward creeping up behind me," Reed said, "it's old age. Like Ward did, Father Time throws a mean crackback block, usually in the morning when I wake up."

The Philly defense outplays Baltimore's, and Vick accounts for three scores, all for the Eagles, and a late interception of Joe Flacco seals the deal.

Philadelphia wins, 24-23.

New Orleans @ Carolina (+6½ )

The Saints' defense was no match last week for rookie sensation Robert Griffin III, who threw for two touchdowns in the Redskins 40-32 win over New Orleans. Up next is last year's rookie sensation, Cam Newton, as the Panthers host the Saints.

"We still have reason to celebrate," Drew Brees said. "A review panel overturned the suspensions handed down in the bounty scandal. The 'Bounty Four' will meet with Roger Goodell soon. Maybe if they out their heads together, they can put him out of commission."

The Panthers are looking for their first win, and facing a New Orleans team embroiled in the bounty scandal may lend the perfect opportunity for the Panthers to strike.

"I certainly don't fear the Saints' defense," Newton said. "Bounty or no bounty. Heck, I already know what it's like to play with a price on my head. I've got my dad to thank for that."

Brees throws for 325 yards and 3 scores, and the Saints hold on for a 32-30 win.

Arizona @ New England (-13)

Tom Brady took a knee to the nose late in the Patriots 34-13 win in Tennessee last week, but not before carving up the Titans defense for 236 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"Merely a flesh wound," Brady said. "I've been hit harder, usually when I check my record in Super Bowls against the Giants. It's rumored that when I took that shot to the head, a yellow flag mysteriously fell out of the air at Terrell Suggs' feet. T-Sizzle's right about one thing — I got 'special treatment' after my nose got busted."

John Skelton was largely ineffective last week against the Seahawks before leaving the game with an injured ankle. Kevin Kolb promptly took over, and led the Cards on the game-winning drive, hitting Andre Roberts from six yards out for the decisive touchdown.

"Skelton is still my quarterback," Ken Whisenhunt said. "That's no indication of our starter for Sunday, but it is the perfect answer to the question, 'What are five words an NFL coach never wants to say?'"

Skelton, on a gimpy ankle, is unable to start, so Kolb assumes the position, and shows his gratitude to Whisenhunt by yelling, "Thanks you sir, may I have another?!"

Kolb plays well enough to keep the Cards close for three quarters, but in the end, Brady is too much for the Cards' defense to stop.

New England wins, 35-27.

Minnesota @ Indianapolis (+1½)

Andrew Luck's NFL debut did not go as smoothly as that of fellow rookie Robert Griffin III. Luck threw for 309 yards, but threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 3 times. The numbers were quite similar to those of Peyton Manning in his first game as a Colt.

"It appears I'll be compared to Manning for the rest of my career," Luck said. "I suppose that's will be the only reason I can say I'm 'comparable' to Manning. You may not know this, but I'm occupying the locker space once used by Manning. As opposed to Manning having 'Luck' rub off on him, I'm hoping to have some 'Manning' rub off on me."

The Colts will have to stop Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Vikings' 26-23 overtime win over Jacksonville last week.

"Peterson's recuperative powers are amazing," Leslie Frazier said. "I'm not sure what he did to recover so expediently, but it couldn't have been a sex cruise on the healing waters of Lake Minnetonka; that makes you weak in the knees.

"It was only nine months ago that he tore his knee up, and I don't think anyone expected him to return this early. It's a case of 'Oklahoma Sooner than later.'"

Peterson amazes again, topping 100 yards with a touchdown.

Minnesota wins, 29-24.

Washington @ St. Louis (+3)

Robert Griffin III kicked off his NFL career with a bang, throwing for 320 yards and two touchdowns in Washington's 40-32 win in New Orleans last week. Of five rookie quarterbacks who started in Week 1, Griffin was the only to emerge victorious.

"It was a fantastic coming out party," Griffin said. "There was no pressure, believe it or not. As the second quarterback taken in a draft in which the Colts took a QB with the first pick, I had absolutely nothing to live up to. Finally, someone's got something to thank Ryan Leaf for."

The Rams, under new head coach Jeff Fisher, nearly upset the Lions, losing 27-23 on Matthew Stafford's five-yard pass to Kevin Smith with 10 seconds left.

"Robert Griffin III is no Matthew Stafford," Fisher said, "and Redskins' fans are thrilled to hear that. Griffin will be a handful, but I've got a defense, led by James Laurinaitis, that can contain him. James just signed a contract extension, and surprisingly, it wasn't finalized inside a wrestling ring, although there was one Road Warrior in attendance."

The Rams put the brakes on the RGIII bandwagon, forcing 3 Griffin turnovers. Sam Bradford, not quite a Redskin despite being 1/16 Cherokee, throws for 249 yards and 2 scores.

St. Louis wins, 24-21.

Dallas @ Seattle (+3)

The last time Tony Romo was in Seattle, he fumbled away the Cowboys' opportunity for a playoff win. But that was then, this is now, and Dallas is riding high after knocking off the Giants on September 5th.

"As a rule," Romo said, "I try to always look forward and not back. Unfortunately, looking back is the only way to see a Dallas Super Bowl.

"That fateful day back in 2007 weighs heavily on me. Times have changed, though. Back then, we blew chances for playoff wins in the playoffs. Now we blow chances for playoff wins in the regular season."

The Seahawks, tabbed my many as a sleeper pick in the NFC, lost a tight 20-16 decision in Arizona. Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson flashed moments of adequacy, but was often erratic, completing 18-of-34 passes.

"As his jersey number would suggest," Pete Carroll said, "Russell played like a 'No. 3' quarterback. He was a two-sport star in college. Last Sunday, he was a star in no sports."

Dallas employs an interesting defense, overloading the middle of the line, thereby obscuring the 5'11" Wilson's view, and unleashing Demarcus Ware from the outside. Wilson is sacked four times, and knocked down more often than not, leaving him seeing stars.

Dallas win, 23-17.

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-6½)

After a preseason of offensive ineptitude, the Jets exploded for 48 points in a blowout win over the Bills. Mark Sanchez passed for 269 yards and three touchdowns and temporarily silenced his many critics.

"According to those critics," Sanchez said, "two of my major distractions are Eva Longoria and Tim Tebow. That's a 'cougar' and a 'wildcat.' Eva's old enough to be my girlfriend's mother. People can't doubt my ability to throw the deep pass, but they can no longer doubt my ability to 'go Long.'

"I hear that Ben Roethlisberger is expecting a son later this year. That's great. I hear they plan on calling him 'Loo,' because that's where he was likely conceived."

The Steelers fell victim in the return of Peyton Manning, who led the Broncos to a 31-19 win last Sunday night.

"Injuries will be a factor in this game," Roethlisberger said. "Darrelle Revis has a slight concussion, and Troy Polamalu has a strained calf muscle. Troy plays with such reckless abandon, it appears he doesn't fear for his safety. But we certainly fear for our safety."

Sunday afternoon's contest at Heinz Field will have a playoff atmosphere, meaning Sanchez will likely succumb to "atmospheric pressure." But the Jets' defense keeps it close, and the Steelers win when a long pass to Mike Wallace sets up Sean Suisham's game-winning field goal.

Pittsburgh wins, 18-16.

Tennessee @ San Diego (-7)

Chris Johnson gained only 4 yards on 11 carries last week, adding doubt to the notion that he could return to the form of a 2,000-yard back. With a loss at San Diego, the Titans would fall into an 0-2 hole in the AFC South.

"That's 0.4 yards per carry," Johnson said. "That's pathetic, but I can find comfort in knowing that a real man is measured in inches."

The Chargers opened the season with a 22-14 win in Oakland's O.co Stadium. Nate Kaeding kicked five field goals, and Rivers was an efficient 24-31 for 231 yards.

"We're putting everything we've got into this season," Rivers said. "This may be our last hurrah. There are those that say I'm more likely to lead a prayer than a team to the Super Bowl, but I'm intent on proving them wrong."

San Diego wins, 27-23.

Detroit @ San Francisco (-7)

Give the folks at NBC a pat on the back for scheduling the Lions-49ers game as their Sunday night showcase. It's "Backslap Bowl II," and Jim Schwartz and the Lions are keen on avenging last year's regular season loss to the 49ers.

"Let's not let the coaches overshadow some of the intriguing matchups here," Schwartz said. "For example, it's Calvin Johnson versus Randy Moss. In Transformers world, that would be 'Megatron' versus 'Optimus Past His Prime.'

"Plus, the 49ers have arguably the league's finest linebacker corps, led by Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman. Hopefully, my 'backers will use this game as an opportunity to make a name for themselves, because I darn sure don't know their names."

The 49ers stormed into Green Bay last week and left with the win, as well as the swagger of a team considered the NFC favorite right now.

"As you may know," Jim Harbaugh said, "I'm expecting a child. That's exactly what I said just before signing Moss. But I couldn't be happier with Randy's attitude. I like to think I've had a positive influence on keeping him in line. Like my California homeboys Korn like to say, I've got the 'Freak on a Leash.'"

Megatron wins the battle, but Moss and the 49ers win the war. Turnovers are again the Lions' downfall, and San Francisco powers to a 30-21 win.

Denver @ Atlanta (-3)

Peyton Manning's return to football was the big story in football, as the former Colt christened the Broncos as his team with a 31-19 win over the Steelers on Sunday night.

"Some casual Broncos fans woke up Monday morning and were alarmed by the headline they saw," Manning said. "It read, 'Peyton's Back!' They thought it was a new injury.

"No one's happier about me in Denver than the receiving corps. They're just happy to be catching passes instead of blocking."

The Falcons blasted the Chiefs 40-24 in Kansas City last week, lending proof that Atlanta's offense will be greatly improved this year. With more performances like that against the Chiefs, the Falcons will certainly be the clear favorite in the NFC South.

"We're setting the bar high," Matt Ryan said. "Our goal is to win the South outright. That appears to be the only way we can advance to the second round of the playoffs.

"Beating the Broncos, led by Manning, won't be easy, even in front of a raucous home crowd in the Georgia Dome. This could be a career-defining game for me, which could be bad news, because I'm winless in those games. But I think if we keep it close, we'll win. In a neck-and-neck game, we've certainly got the edge."

Denver wins in a shootout, 38-34.

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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:33 PM | Comments (2)

Anatomy of an Upset

I write about upsets. A lot. Upsets are one of the primary reasons I love sports.

This past week in college football, we got a real rare vintage of one, where the significant underdog came back from a big deficit (as I noted in the second entry in the first link above, that is a vanishingly rare feat). Louisiana-Monroe, who has never had a winning season since joining what we then called (and still ought to call) Division 1-A, took out No. 8-ranked Arkansas 34-31 in overtime after trailing 28-7 in the second half.

I watched more of this game than you might expect from a Midwestern boy who is not a fan of either school, thanks to "ESPN Goal Line," a new channel from ESPN that jumps from game to game on the ESPN family of networks.

When Arkansas went up 28-7 in the third quarter, this upset-lover was bummed, because the game felt like it should have been a lot closer; ULM had two drives stall (once turning it over on downs at the Arkansas 2, once getting picked off) inside the Arkansas 15.

But the Warhawks didn't fold, and stayed aggressive. They gambled. That was half of the key to their upset. If I've heard it once, I've heard it a thousand times: some idiot pundit will say "if anyone is beating (dominant team in any sport this year), they're gonna have to beat them at their own game."

No! No! Playing a straight-up gameplan where you try to match Goliath blow-for-blow is exactly the formula for giving your team no chance to pull the upset. When was the last time you heard some jubilant coach interviewed on the sideline after knocking off a 25-point favorite say, "Well, we just played it safe, tried to be conventional as possible, made it a war of attrition, and it worked out for us." If you answered, "Never, and never will," you are correct.

If you coach a team like ULM and a play a team like Arkansas, it is imperative to realize that when it comes to talent, you are grossly outmatched. They are faster, stronger, and deeper than you by orders of magnitude (although those orders are thankfully shrinking, thanks to increasing parity and homogeneity in youth and high school training techniques). If you just throw your team out there to the wolves and only make cursory adjustments, the only way you will win is if Goliath makes a ton of mistakes.

And yet, the underdogs rarely get creative when trying to achieve the nigh-impossible. Maybe it's because their coaches are unimaginative, or in denial about the reality of the situation. Maybe it's a CYA approach, because if you gamble a lot and it doesn't pay off, you'll lose even worse than if you played a straight-up game plan.

Nevertheless, as much as Goliath might have a monopoly on talent, that never, ever means they have a monopoly on brains. This is pretty much the only area where David has any control over his fate. You can do it in complex ways by gameplanning to accentuate whatever strengths you might have to the hilt, and doing the most you can to semi-neutralize Goliath's strengths. It's hard work, and can't really be summarized in the column because it will change from game to game, but it's important.

The other thing you can do, should do, which is much simpler, is take chances. Gamble, Try to fool them. Trick plays. Misdirection. Fakes. Two-point conversions. Go for it on fourth down.

The latter is what ULM did. They went for it on fourth down a staggering seven times in the game, and converted on six. This included a pair of fourth down conversions of 10 or more in the third quarter, with the result still in doubt; that is to say, punting would have been conventionally "correct."

Although I'm primarily focusing on coaching for this piece, I'd be remiss not to mention ULM quarterback Kolton Browning, who is the Armanti Edwards of our time. He passed for 412 yards, rushed for 69 more, and was responsible for 4 of ULM's 5 touchdowns.

Back to coaching. Contrast ULM head coach Todd Berry's decision-making with Washington's Steve Sarkisian, who, down 20-3 to LSU, late in the second quarter, had a a 4th-and-12 at the LSU 46. Sarkisian sent in the punter. Because the way you come back from 17 down against LSU is to play a field position game, and you may not be able to stop them from going 55 yards if you go for it and miss, but you can damn sure stop them from going 90 yards with a good punt, and then come back and win. Totally.

The best summation I have read on Louisiana-Monroe's victory is this piece by Bill Connelly. Among his choicest comments:

In 2010, Berry did his best to do things a bit off-kilter — running when opponents expected the pass, passing when opponents expected the run, keeping things fast-paced (possibly not the best idea for an underdog), employing the underdog-friendly 3-3-5 defense, etc. — and the results were decent; despite low overall quality ... I am rooting for Berry to succeed for one simple reason: I want creativity and aggression to be rewarded. Nothing is more depressing to watch than a David trying to win games like Goliath would. Taking risks occasionally leads to calamity, but if they pay off enough, it might encourage other coaches to take similar risks.

Emphasis mine. Yes, he's preaching to the choir, but damn it, I've been saying this stuff not just in this column but in past ones, for years, and it's nice not to be the only voice in the college football desert. He even uses the same (granted, pretty easy and obvious) metaphor. If I could clip and mail that snippet to every school that is a 20+ point underdog in a game forevermore, I would.

I wrote earlier that you may not be able to outplay teams with superior talent, but you at least have a chance to out-coach them. That task becomes easier when the favorite goes full dunce, and boy, did Arkansas ever oblige.

It hasn't been an easy offseason for the Arkansas football program. They had to get rid of head coach Bobby Petrino after he got into that motorcycle accident with his student mistress. They awarded his successor, former Michigan State coach John L. Smith, with perhaps the least-confident contract of all time: a 10-month offer. He surely won't make it past that, nor perhaps to that, now.

Arkansas marched out to that perhaps-undeserved hefty 28-7 lead in the third quarter. They were down to their backup quarterback, but that's okay, you've got two potential NFL running backs in Knile Davis and Dennis Johnson, to grind out the clock and the game against a Sun Belt defense.

But bafflingly, that's not what Arkansas did. Instead, Smith and offensive coordinator Paul Petrino passed and passed and passed, with their backup quarterback. Between the time when they went up 28-7 and when ULM tied the game, Arkansas ran 6 running plays and 11 passing plays. They completed three of those passes.

That play selection is straight-up lunacy for a big favorite trying to protect a lead with two good rushers and a backup quarterback. It's as if they needed throw ULM off-balance instead of the other way around.

Connelly wrote that it depresses him when David tries to win games like Goliath. Not only did ULM not do that, but Arkansas tried to win like David. Up is down. If Smith isn't doing this again, he should be.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:33 AM | Comments (0)

September 12, 2012

Orioles Storming Through September

I've never had much respect for the Baltimore Orioles. That may come across as a spiteful comment given they co-lead the American League East well into September while my team is dead last, but a dissing of the Birds has always been pretty easy to justify. After all, they've made only two postseason appearances in the nearly 29 years since their last World Series championship. To paraphrase John Lennon, the only thing they done was yesterday. Make that 10,589 yesterdays.

To me, the O's will always be that 1988 poster child of incompetence that started the season at 0-21, or the Mother's Day Misfits who blew a 5-run lead with one out in the ninth, or the frauds of fall who single-handedly gave a 12-year-old kid with wandering hands his own Wikipedia entry.

I could also point out that, for 14 consecutive seasons, Baltimore has failed to top 79 wins. Like that crustacean delicacy for which they're renown, Baltimore can only crawl sideways across one calendar after another, unable to move forward. With last-place finishes the past five years, they've spent even more time in the basement than Ann and Mitt Romney.

But as a New Englander, what really sticks in my craw is the 15-39 record the O's compiled against the Yankees over the previous three seasons, even as they grinded out wins against my beloved Red Sox and single-handedly sealed their fate as the greatest collapse in MLB history. In hindsight, the grit and determination they showed last September has become the cornerstone for this year's success.

Yes, things are changing in the East.

The hangover that has lingered in Boston this summer has cleared enough landscape to dig out a new cellar for the division. It will not be in Baltimore this year. Last night, the Birds matched their 15-year high for season wins and they'll clinch a winning record later this week. And this morning, Orioles GM Dan Duquette awoke to his 107th day in first place, far more than his five predecessors combined. But can these paltry milestones serve to lengthen the perennially short Baltimorean autumn?

Sadly for Yankees haters everywhere, not this autumn.

Granted, prophesying the O's demise would be easy in the wake of Nick Markakis's regular season-ending thumb injury last Saturday. The splits are stunning; the O's are 62-42 with Markakis in the starting lineup and 17-20 without. They've struggled all season to find stability at the top of the order as Markakis is now the third lead-off hitter to go down. Along with the absence of a top-line starter — sorry, but Wei-Yin Chen does nothing for me, Tommy Hunter does nothing for anybody, and Jason Hammel went down again last night — and a paucity of power outside of Adam Jones, these Orioles are a long way from being mistaken for any birds of prey.

I get that it is precisely because of these limitations that they've become endeared to America. It also doesn't hurt that they're going up against the goliaths from Boston and New York within their division. The O's have been getting it done with no-names who have heart, and they perfect their craft when it matters most. Everybody loves that. There's Mark Reynolds, who has 21 homers all season, but 9 have come in the last 11 games and a dozen were against either the Red Sox or Yankees. And closer Jim Johnson, who entered 2012 having blown 16 of 37 career save opportunities. The O's are 44-1 in his opportunities this season, and he's saved 7 of 8 against the goliaths, while actually winning the eighth.

Through Bud Selig's added generosity, which gave each league an extra playoff berth starting this year, what was once a small breeze of hope wafting across the Chesapeake Bay has intensified into a 15-year storm that is battering the A.L. East and transforming its coastline. And while its stay will be brief, it has churned up baseball karma to the amusement of many. For instance, ehen was the last time you saw an egregious call cost the Yankees a game rather than their opponents?

With Baltimore and New York currently sharing the top seat in the East, it is not Duquette but rather, Yankees fans who tabulate days in first place. And when they whooped it up as history books got pummeled last year by the blows of Red Sox incompetence, they now turn to history for solace in coping with a 10-game lead lost.

Of course, there's a long way to go. The Yankees already won the East once back in July, and they'll do it again down the September stretch. They've got too much composure and — with Alex Rodriguez and Joba Chamberlain back in the fold, Ivan Nova and Andy Pettitte waiting in the wings, and Mark Teixeira due to return the last week of the regular season — too much ammunition not to.

Then there's the revenge factor. The road to the A.L. East may no longer go through Boston, but with five games remaining against the Yankees, six against the O's, and six more still against the Rays, the Sox certainly stand in the middle of it. Winning the division is all about who can run them over the most. The Yankees slipped off the shoulder and into the ditch last night. Nonetheless, Boston has its own bottle of karma in store for the Orioles. and they'd love to return the favor by knocking them out of this fall's play, even if it means putting New York in. This year more than any, the enemies of Yawkey Way are numerous.

Look for the Yankees to win four of their final five games against the Red Sox, while Boston in turn takes four of six from both Baltimore and Tampa Bay. That leaves the latter contenders to fight it out for Selig's final postseason slot.

Sure, a storm has been brewing in the American League East all season. Doesn't mean we have to break out the umbrellas just yet.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 5:56 PM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 26

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin led 202 of 400 laps at Richmond, but the No. 11 FedEx team's decision to stay on the track after a late rain delay proved costly. His shot at the win gone, Hamlin came home 18th, one lap down.

"I'm leading the points," Hamlin said. "So I'm right where I need to be, just 10 weeks too early.

"The Chase is wide open. There doesn't appear to be a clear-cut favorite to win the Cup. The identity of the 2012 Sprint Cup champion is a lot like NASCAR's drug policy — it's anyone's guess."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished 13th at Richmond, and will start the Chase For the Cup three points back of Denny Hamlin. He'll lead the way for Hendrick Motorsports, which place all four drivers in the Chase.

"A full third of the Chase field are Hendrick drivers," Johnson said. "That means there's a 33% chance a Hendrick driver will win the Sprint Cup. There's a 100% chance that Hendrick driver will be me. And, as five titles in six years suggests, it's wise to play the percentages."

3. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished a solid seventh at Richmond, posting his 15th top-10 result of the year. With three wins, he'll start the Chase tied with Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart, three points back of points leader Denny Hamlin.

"The Chase field is set," Keselowski said, "and Kyle Busch isn't in it. Kyle will never be considered a true great of the sport until he wins a Sprint Cup title. Therefore it compels me to say that 'Kyle Busch is an as-terisk,' because he's not a star, but starlike."

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt started on pole in the Federated Auto Parts 400, leading 67 laps on his way to a 14th in Saturday's rain-delayed race. With only one win this year, he'll start nine points behind Denny Hamlin.

"Congratulations to Jeff Gordon," Earnhardt said. "With his runner-up finish, he's in the Chase. He said that was like a win to him. That makes him a lot like me, because with my track record, I'll call anything a win."

5. Tony Stewart — Stewart scored his first top-five finish since a fifth at Pocono in early August with a fourth at Richmond. His three wins this year will start him tied for second in the Chase, three points behind Denny Hamlin.

"In most cases," Stewart said, "I take offense at things. But, as last year's Sprint Cup champion, I'm going on the defensive. But never fear, that's still reason enough to throw helmets, punches, and tantrums. These are a few of my favorite things."

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished fifth at Richmond, posting his 16th top-10 finish. By virtue of his one victory, he'll start the Chase nine points down to Denny Hamlin.

"It's been a crazy year," Kenseth said. "Honestly, I can't tell whether I'm coming or going. Fortunately, I've got two wins on the year — one at Daytona, and one at Joe Gibbs Racing. Hopefully, Roush Fenway Racing will consider me a 'loss' and not a 'loser.'"

7. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished ninth at Richmond, and, with two wins on the year, will start the Chase tied for fifth, six points out of first.

"I like my chances," Biffle said. "I'm not going to back down from anyone. As far as the Cup goes, I, like all the favorites, expect to be there at the end. And, unlike Matt Kenseth, I expect to be here at the end."

8. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer survived a spin through the infield grass before rallying late to win the Federated Auto Parts 400. Bowyer's second win of the year places him six points behind Chase leader Denny Hamlin.

"I've got what no one else has," Bowyer said. "And that's 5-Hour Energy sponsorship on my car, which naturally gives me a 'shot' to win it all."

9. Jeff Gordon — Gordon raced his way into the Chase For the Cup with a hard-earned second at Richmond. As the final wild card entrant, he'll start last in the field, 12 points out of first.

"We had a little help from Kyle Busch," Gordon said. "It seems the No. 18 M&Ms car got a little loose, right after the No. 18 pit crew got 'tight.' I'm just happy to qualify for the Chase. I'm in, and I'm ecstatic to the inth degree."

10. Kasey Kahne — Kahne finished 12th at Richmond and qualified for the Chase as the field's first wildcard. He will start at the bottom of the Chase field, 12 points behind Denny Hamlin.

"I'm starting all the way at the back," Kahne said. "I've been ordered to choose my words carefully, because Hendrick Motorsports doesn't want anyone to 'bring up the rear.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:58 PM | Comments (0)

September 11, 2012

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The last seven Super Bowl champions all lost in Week 1. That double-counts the Steelers and Giants, but the Colts, Saints, and Packers also dropped their openers. You have to go back to the 2004 New England Patriots to find a Super Bowl winner that prevailed on Sunday.

* Deion Sanders was raving after the Sunday night game about Brandon Stokley. Yeah, Denver pretty much won because of the guy who caught two (2) passes for 26 yards. Sure.

* Congratulations to U.S. Open champions Serena Williams and Andy Murray. Those two have had awfully nice years, especially the last few months.

* What is wrong with kickoff returners this year? If the ball is more than five or six yards deep, don't run it out because: (1) you probably won't get to the 20, (2) you or a teammate could get hurt, (3) one of your teammates could draw a penalty. If I were a special teams coach, I would routinely bench/fine/waive/draw-and-quarter my players.

* ESPN hates sports fans. In the Raiders/Chargers game, the announcers spent two minutes discussing a personal foul that never appeared on camera. Seriously, you have to show that play.

***

Other than maybe Robert Griffin III and Peyton Manning, the biggest story of Week 1 was probably the replacement referees. For the most part, they did a solid job in a tough situation. There were mistakes, but mostly the kind of mistakes you see all the time from the regular officials, and if they were a little more common from the replacement crews, that's to be expected until they're more familiar with the job and with each other.

Two games drew particular attention, however. David White's officiating crew, handling the Packers/49ers game, drew the ire of both teams. The officials were repeatedly late with flags, and failed to call a block in the back on Randall Cobb's punt return TD. Not long afterwards, officials in Arizona granted the Seahawks a fourth timeout. Fortunately, neither miscue was decisive. More significant was an error by the clock operator in Detroit, which effectively gave the Lions a fourth timeout.

Some criticisms I actually thought were unfair. On Monday night, it looked to me like Anquan Boldin dropped his touchdown catch, but after a replay review, the play stood as called. I don't have a problem with that. The NFL's system calls for indisputable visual evidence, and that play was not indisputable. On a related note, I like FOX's use of Mike Pereira — the NFL's former Vice President of Officiating — as a consultant, but I didn't care for Gerry Austin on ESPN this week. Bringing him in was a good idea, but it didn't play out well on Monday night.

Fans can expect to see the replacement refs for at least another month, and I expect we'll see fewer mistakes as they get more experience. In the meantime, I can live with the errors from Week 1. Now on to this week's power rankings. Brackets indicate preseason rank.

1. New England Patriots [3] — No obvious weaknesses in their Week 1 performance. Tom Brady passed for 2 touchdowns and a 117.1 passer rating, looking especially in sync with tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Gronk is just a marvel. Besides being one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL, he's one of the better blocking tight ends in the league. The two-TE set also facilitates New England's running game, which looked very strong in Tennessee. Last season, the Pats thrived on their pass attack, and it still looks sharp, but the defense and ground game appear improved for a team that was already one of the league's best.

2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — We expected big things from the offense, and it didn't disappoint, with Julio Jones in particular justifying the hype. With such an explosive air attack, and a plodding ground game (under 3 yards per attempt by running backs), it's tempting to air it out every play, but the Falcons have strung together four straight winning seasons by leaning on Michael Turner. It makes sense to emphasize the pass, but I hope Atlanta won't abandon the run.

3. Houston Texans [4] — They won by 20, they signed Matt Schaub to a contract extension, and all the stars appear healthy, even Andre Johnson. But why did Arian Foster, who was listed as questionable, carry seven times in the fourth quarter? You're up 30-10 and you're playing the Dolphins, who are not known for their wild comebacks. Your best player is an injury risk and he's already touched the ball 20 times. Show some love to Ben Tate in that situation. Second-year defensive lineman J.J. Watt had a sensational game, including 1.5 sacks and 3 pass deflections, two of which led to interceptions.

4. San Francisco 49ers [5] — David Akers made a 63-yard field goal just before halftime, tying the NFL record. But unlike Jason Elam and Sebastian Janikowski, Akers didn't push his 63-yarder through the uprights in Denver. Akers and Tom Dempsey are the only kickers to connect from 63 yards in a stadium with gravity.

5. Baltimore Ravens [6] — Ed Reed's interception return for a touchdown gave him 1,497 career INT return yards, breaking the record held by Rod Woodson. Reed left the game to get treatment on a hamstring, and at this writing it's not clear whether or not that will limit him in Week 2. The offense was just 3/9 on third downs, but looked noticeably sharper and more explosive than in the past. In close games, they'll need to use Ray Rice more often, especially as a receiver. It's great that Joe Flacco is looking downfield, but he can't ignore the team's best player.

6. Green Bay Packers [1] — Charged with 10 penalties, after leading the league last year in fewest flags drawn. The Packers committed more penalties in the first half against San Francisco (8) than in any game last season (7). The offense looked out of sync, with Aaron Rodgers mostly completing short passes. Even on the Packers' final drive, everything was underneath. That's not how they've been successful in the past. Defensively, they looked sloppy and soft.

7. Chicago Bears [9] — Easily beat the Colts, but fans should be especially pleased by the best-case scenario they got from the offense. Jay Cutler passed for 300 yards and a 98.9 rating. Matt Forte averaged 5 yards a carry and Michael Bush scored two touchdowns. Brandon Marshall caught nine passes, and Alshon Jeffery caught a 42-yard TD. Defensively, the stars were Henry Melton (3 tackles for loss, including 2 sacks) and Tim Jennings (4 passes defensed, including 2 interceptions). If you're looking for bad news, Charles Tillman left the game with a leg injury and they have a tough Week 2 road matchup in Green Bay.

8. Detroit Lions [8] — Matthew Stafford tossed three first-half interceptions, and they escaped the opener with an uncomfortably close, last-minute, 27-23 victory over the lowly Rams. The good news: it was all about the turnovers. St. Louis led 13-10 at halftime, but the Lions had twice as many yards (231-91), three times as many first downs (16-5), and a 6:30 edge in time of possession (18:14 - 11:46). If Stafford can stay out of trouble, this is still an explosive team, with a big-play offense and competent defense.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — They didn't have James Harrison or Ryan Clark, they were playing in the NFL's weirdest road environment, and no one really knew what to expect from Peyton Manning. So it's too early to panic. Without Rashard Mendenhall, still recovering from last December's knee injury, Jonathan Dwyer clearly looked like the best option at RB. Neither he nor Isaac Redman got great blocking, but Dwyer frequently made something out of nothing, while Redman carried 11 times for just 20 yards.

10. New York Jets [19] — Offense rebounded from a miserable preseason to score four touchdowns in a rout of the Bills. Antonio Cromartie added a defensive TD and Jeremy Kerley scored the team's first punt return TD since Santana Moss in 2002. The Jets' 48 points were their most in the Rex Ryan era. Mark Sanchez finished with 266 yards, 3 TDs, and a 123.4 passer rating. That's right, 1-2-3-4 passer rating. Darrelle Revis left the game with a head injury, now described as a mild concussion, and his status for Week 2 is unclear.

11. Philadelphia Eagles [11] — I like Andy Reid's new, bushier moustache. He looks very walrus-y. This link is definitely NSFW, but basically captures my feelings on Philly's Week 1 showing.

12. Dallas Cowboys [17] — In the first quarter, they looked like the 2010-11 Cowboys, giving away a big division game. The team seemed jittery, rusty, and underprepared, committing five pre-snap penalties in the first half. Then something clicked. Maybe it was just Tony Romo settling in, but I credit the coaching staff for realizing that New York didn't have enough healthy defensive backs to cover three wide receivers. DeMarco Murray and Romo both played well, but Kevin Ogletree was the breakout star, and the Giants' defensive short-comings had a lot to do with that. Tyron Smith's personal foul to save a touchdown was the best penalty of Week 1, a four-point swing.

13. San Diego Chargers [14] — You hear it all the time: "Team X didn't win that game, Team Y lost." Following an injury to Oakland long snapper Jon Condo, three blown punts led to Chargers field goals, and San Diego's only TD drive was abetted by three Raider penalties that resulted in first downs. The offense looked impotent without Ryan Mathews, and Antonio Gates may not be 100% after an apparent rib injury. The defense, however, played well. Shaun Phillips got two sacks, and it's about time the media finally noticed him. San Diego went 0-4 without Phillips last season, compared to 8-4 when he was in the lineup. The player who caught my attention, though, was #91, second-round draft choice Kendall Reyes. He gave Mike Brisiel a lot of trouble, routinely getting into the backfield. Reyes subbed out a lot, though, and the Chargers need to keep him on the field. That kid can be a game-changer.

14. Denver Broncos [23] — Six-hundred and 10 days after his last NFL game, Peyton Manning remains the league's premier play-caller, and it turns out he can still throw. More impressive than Manning's arm, though, was his intelligence. One of Denver's most impressive series began with five straight runs, all called by Manning at the line. Other than Tom Brady on his best days, no other QB in the game can read defenses like that.

15. Arizona Cardinals [18] — Going back to the end of last season, they have won eight of their last 10 games. The Cardinals couldn't run at all (20 att, 43 yds), but the defense played well and Kevin Kolb directed a game-winning drive after John Skelton injured his ankle. Kolb hasn't had an impressive pro career, but his ceiling is higher than Skelton's, and I think the Cardinals have a better chance to be a great team with Kolb handling the offense. Arizona overcame an officiating error — the Seahawks were granted four timeouts in the second half — with an impressive goal-to-go fourth quarter stand.

16. New York Giants [10] — Looked okay for about a quarter and a half, holding their own in a low-scoring battle with a Dallas team that often can't get out of its own way. With everything working against Dallas, the Giants should have won big. The Cowboys committed a ton of penalties, Jay Ratliff didn't play, Jason Witten was a non-factor, starting center Phil Costa got hurt on the first series, and the game was in New York (Jersey). But the Giants looked worse and worse as the game went on. The second half was ugly, with New York just going through the paces. Injuries are already a problem.

17. Seattle Seahawks [13] — Much-hyped rookie QB Russell Wilson left Arizona with 153 passing yards, a 62.5 rating, and a lost fumble. I don't blame him, though, or at least not exclusively. Wilson has no one to throw to, and the offensive line isn't exactly the league's best, either. The defense mostly played well, though, and Leon Washington had a big day on special teams. Seattle has tough home games against the Cowboys and Packers the next two weeks.

18. Cincinnati Bengals [12] — Baltimore is a tough matchup, especially at home, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis played well at running back. If Bengal fans are in search of a silver lining after a nationally-televised blowout loss to a division rival, I think Andrew Whitworth is probably the best offensive tackle in the NFL right now.

19. Washington Redskins [26] — Brilliant offensive gameplan, protecting Robert Griffin III without babying him or being too conservative. In fact, Washington's offense was wildly diverse, keeping the Saints off-balance and controlling the clock. The team scored 10 points in each quarter, and improved offensive line play could make Washington a legitimate threat in the sad NFC East. New kicker Billy Cundiff played a really nice game, going 4/4 on field goals and pinning the Saints deep with long kickoffs.

20. New Orleans Saints [15] — Scored 32 points without looking good on offense. The line lost two of its three best players in the offseason, and it showed. One of the NFL's best home teams, the Saints didn't lose in New Orleans all of last season. On Sunday, playing at home, they committed 12 penalties (including three false starts) and allowed the most points in a home game since 2003 (40), to a team that didn't top 30 all of last season. Washington nearly doubled the Saints' time of possession.

21. Kansas City Chiefs [20] — They had a tough matchup and a lot of injuries, so it's too early to panic. Kansas City went 11/16 on third downs and won time of possession; most of the game was close. Peyton Hillis started the game, but the Chiefs have to be pleased with what they saw from Jamaal Charles. Tamba Hali returns from suspension for Week 2, and that's a significant boost.

22. Buffalo Bills [16] — C.J. Spiller rushed for 169 yards, with a 12.1 average and a touchdown. His strong performance is good news, since it appears that Fred Jackson will be out for at least three weeks with a sprained LCL. But Spiller lost a fumble and Ryan Fitzpatrick gave away three INTs, while the new-look defense sputtered against the mighty Jets. Big-shot free agent Mario Williams finished with 1 tackle, and Mark Anderson with none.

23. Tennessee Titans [22] — Held their own against the Patriots for a quarter, then fell apart. Chris Johnson caught 6 passes, but rushed for a career-low 4 yards, averaging just over 1/3 yard per attempt. Jake Locker separated his shoulder making a tackle, but he reportedly will be fine for Week 2, and backup Matt Hasselbeck might be an improvement anyway. Kenny Britt returns from suspension and injury next week, so look for Tennessee's offense to get a boost.

24. St. Louis Rams [29] — Got immediate impact from free agent Cortland Finnegan, who scored on a 31-yard interception return. The defense is the strength of this team, and it showed that by intercepting Matt Stafford three times and putting a scare into the Lions in Detroit. It will be interesting to see what they do against RGIII at home in Week 2.

25. Oakland Raiders [25] — I feel bad for Travis Goethel, the backup long snapper who blew two plays and will probably be blamed for a third, which was actually a blocking breakdown. Injuries at WR limited the offense, but it looked pretty one-dimensional on Monday, Darren McFadden and a prayer. The defense looked good, though, and Sebastian Janikowski already has a 51-yard field goal. For all the fuss Chris Berman and Trent Dilfer made about penalties, San Diego was charged with more (9) than Oakland (6), for more than twice as much yardage (78-35). Misleading, yes, but Charger penalties don't fit the storyline. At least ESPN has its priorities straight: entertainment > truth.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [27] — Doug Martin rushed for 95 yards and Josh Freeman posted a 95.5 passer rating, but in a defense-dominated 16-10 win, the real star may have been Ronde Barber, who made two tackles for a loss (including a sack) and two pass deflections (including an INT). Gerald McCoy and the defensive line also deserve credit, for shutting down Carolina's run game.

27. Carolina Panthers [21] — Tied an all-time franchise low, with just 10 rushing yards. They went just 2/10 on third downs, and Cam Newton threw 2 second-half interceptions. Perhaps most surprising was Newton's ineffectiveness as a runner. Here's the breakdown:

Newton's previous career-low in rushing was 18 yards with a 2.3 average, the only time he'd been below 27 and 3.9. Williams became a popular fantasy starter when fellow RB Jonathan Stewart was ruled out of the game, and he rewarded PPR owners with 1 catch. Pilares is a wide receiver. Look for better offensive numbers when Carolina hosts the Saints in Week 2.

28. Cleveland Browns [28] — Starting QB Brandon Weeden got trapped under a giant flag during pre-game ceremonies, and his day got worse from there. Weeden's performance was so bad (12-of-35, 4 INTs, 5.1 rating) that the Eagles overcame their own 4-INT showing from Michael Vick and pulled out a late 17-16 victory. The Browns converted only 2/13 third downs and gained less than half as many yards (210) as the Eagles (456), losing time of possession by almost 12 minutes. They stayed in the game based on mistakes by Philadelphia: 4 Vick INTs, a LeSean McCoy fumble, and 12 Eagle penalties.

Standout CB Joe Haden will miss the next four games, serving his suspension after a positive test for Adderall.

29. Miami Dolphins [24] — The first 20 minutes were close. Their second-quarter drives ended via: punt, turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover, kneel-down at end of half. At one point, the Dolphins committed turnovers on three consecutive offensive snaps. In the fourth quarter, Miami turned the ball over on downs in all three possessions, which I suspect is unprecedented.

30. Minnesota Vikings [32] — Against all odds, Adrian Peterson looked close to 100%. He carried 17 times for 84 yards and 2 TDs. Christian Ponder (270 yards, 105.5 rating) and Percy Harvin (20 yards rushing, 84 receiving) also played well, but the real hero may have been rookie kicker Blair Walsh, who made four field goals, all in the fourth quarter or overtime. Walsh connected from 55 yards to tie the score at the end of regulation — easily the most clutch kick of the season so far — then hit one from 38 to put the Vikings ahead in OT. Jared Allen posted a statistical zero, with an early sack negated by penalty and no other tackles or assists.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [30] — Offense looked okay, with Maurice Jones-Drew playing most of the game and Blaine Gabbert doing an effective impression of an NFL quarterback. But the defense never troubled Ponder and didn't seem prepared for a healthy Peterson.

32. Indianapolis Colts [31] — On Sunday, Peyton Manning looked like he can play another five years, and Andrew Luck committed four turnovers. It's way too early to suggest that the Colts should be kicking themselves, but inside, they have to be very anxious about whether they made the right choice. They may have waived an MVP candidate.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:29 PM | Comments (3)

September 10, 2012

Houston's Early Firing a Bad Omen

It wasn't so long ago that the University of Houston football team was riding high. They finished the 2011 season 13-1, and fought from behind to beat Penn State in the Ticket City Bowl. Their offense under head coach Kevin Sumlin brought back memories of Andre Ware and David Klingler from 20 years ago. This time, it was led by Case Keenum, and the Cougars twice hit the 73-point mark.

My, how quickly things change. Case Keenum graduated, and Sumlin left for College Station to begin the Aggies' era in the SEC. He was succeeded by Tony Levine, who I'm sure was confident he could continue Sumlin's success. As he told reporters prior to the start of the season, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

After just one game this season, it became painfully clear something was broken after all. The Cougars entered their Sept. 1 season-opener against Texas State as a 36-point underdog, but somebody forgot to inform the Bobcats. Houston didn't just lose; they were embarrassed, 30-13 in the Bobcats' first game as an FBS school. Houston quarterback David Piland looked nothing like his namesake, David Klingler, in his first start since 2010. He completed just 17-of-44 passes for 211 yards, and rushed many of his passes. The Cougars allowed 248 yards on the ground, went 1-for-13 on third-down conversions, and the 13 points was their lowest output since the 2010 UCLA game.

Oh, but it gets worse. Mike Nesbitt, the Cougars' offensive coordinator who was hired by Levine before the season, was out Monday following the Texas State loss. Assistant Coach Travis Bush, who had been coaching the running backs, was named as Nesbitt's replacement. Director of Player Personnel Ken McClintock has assumed Bush's duties.

Publicly, Levine announced Nesbitt resigned, but it was clear the head coach had a hand in the exit. He and Nesbitt did not see eye to eye on the team's offensive scheme during the Bobcat game. When Levine asked for running plays on several occasions, Nesbitt instead chose to pass. Levine wanted the play-caller to give the ball to one player, it was given to another player.

Obviously, the head coach and the offensive coordinator were not on the same page. Odd, since Levine must have felt otherwise when he hired Nesbitt, a graduate of New Mexico considered to have a sharp offensive mind. Levine may have begun to see signs of trouble during two-a-days, but making a move too early may have been considered a knee-jerk reaction. After the Texas State loss, however, Levine had to assert his position as head coach; otherwise, he would run the risk of losing control of the ship.

The Houston offense looked much better against Louisiana Tech the following Saturday, but this time it was the defense that faltered in a 56-49 loss. Louisiana Tech piled up 598 yards and 8 touchdowns, while the Cougar offense looked more like Kevin Sumlin's offense. Piland was 53-of-77 for 580 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also set an NCAA record for pass attempts in a game without an interception.

But a loss is a loss, and Levine's 0-2 start this season is a far cry from whatever visions he may have had of following in Sumlin's shadow. It's a long season, but if things don't turn around soon, changing offensive coordinators after the first week will be the least of his problems.

Posted by Stephen Kerr at 2:43 PM | Comments (4)

September 9, 2012

Slow Learners and Sore Losers

They're named after baby bears. Thursday night, they behaved like babies. And one of the infants in the middle of it, who actually began as one of the field's diplomats, still insists on taking the low road.

"You're up 7-2, Lendy Castillo's pitching, it's 3-0," harrumphed Chicago Cubs catcher Steve Clevenger. "You don't swing in that situation. Things happen."

Let's see. It was the fifth inning. The Washington Nationals, who've already played with a little more than derring-do to build that 7-2 lead, have the bases loaded, two out, and Jayson Werth at the plate. Castillo, a Rule 5 player enjoying a September call-up, hoping to impress his brass, but not exactly doing a fine job of that thus far, has fallen behind Werth 3-0.

The fifth inning. Not the eighth. Not the ninth. Four more innings to go. Did nobody teach Castillo, Clevenger, or any of these Cubs that they play nine innings in real baseball? No wonder the Cubs are going into the 105th year of their rebuilding effort.

Some of what's likely to be forgotten about Thursday night is Kurt Suzuki whacking a three-run bomb to support Jordan Zimmermann in a nice bounce-back start, punching out nine in seven innings' work; or, the two-run bomb Adam LaRoche would hit not long after everyone went back to his dugout. None of what's likely to be forgotten, and I notice surfing around that the Cubs don't have as many defenders as they'd probably like to have this time, is the Cubs looking, acting, and talking like a bunch of four year olds.

Thursday night's Cub starter, Justin Germano, made that clear enough. "When you have circumstances like that, you can take it like that — for yourselves to know that we're not going to let guys run over us," he told the Chicago Sun-Times. "And if we've got to make them uncomfortable in the box, then that's what we've got to do — not totally going after somebody but just trying to make them aware not to be uncomfortable."

If we've got to make them uncomfortable?

These Cubs couldn't make a Little League team uncomfortable. Germano was talking over his head for a guy who'd been slapped silly for six earned runs (seven overall) in four innings' work including Suzuki's blast and, in the fourth, Bryce Harper's Flying Wallendas-like infield hit with first and second, which allowed Suzuki to score with Werth and Harper moving up further on Starlin Castro's miscue and scoring — Harper included, on another round of fancy foot and headwork measuring the play and the throw in — off Ryan Zimmerman's single.

And Germano's going to sound the charge against guys running over these Cubs?

Clevenger's major league career to date has been a small cup of coffee with the Cubs in 2011, good for one double and a run scored in five plate appearances, before a 2012 that shows, thus far, 60 games, a .276 on-base percentage, fielding percentages and range factors below the National League average for catchers, and a -0.8 wins above a replacement level player. In early August, with his playing time upped since Geovanny Soto was traded to Texas, the rook got himself tossed after bellowing, with swearing, at ump Jeff Nelson over a pitch call while batting against Cincinnati.

Yep, he's the one to show the world the Cubs aren't going to take the Nats' chazerei lying down. Clevenger, the Chicago Sun-Times noted about the August toss, "is learning about major-league demeanor as much as hitting and working behind the plate." Apparently, he's a slow learner. Maybe if the commissioner's office hands him, Castillo, and Cubs bench coach Jamie Quirk (about whom more anon) suspensions, he'll get a little closer to his diploma.

So Werth took a big cut on 3-0 with the ducks on the pond in the fifth. Where I and just about every other baseball watcher comes from they call 3-0 a hitter's count. Would the Cubs have been offended less if Werth had had the decency to wait until 3-1 before taking a cut?

Clevenger took time to switch mitts when a lace broke on his game piece. During that time, as he went to the Cubs' dugout to find its replacement, Quirk and a few possible other Cub pine-pony riders started barking toward the Nats, third base coach Bo Porter in particular. Porter didn't exactly take kindly to the barking, but he strode almost calmly toward the Cub dugout's railing, provoking both benches to empty for the first time, though nothing much more than that happened just yet.

It almost seems forgotten that Werth skied to right for the side after order was restored the first time. Certainly it wasn't necessarily predestination that Harper should lead off the bottom of the sixth. He'd only had a huge hand in the Nats' Wednesday night 9-1 thrashing, with a pair of bombs. Harper had also been 4-for-8 in the first three games, not to mention turning a double into a triple and a run scored plus an infield hit before he batted in the sixth Thursday.

But by God Castillo and Clevenger were going to send the kid a little reminder of who the men were around here. Castillo threw the first pitch of the inning at Harper's belt on the hip side. Harper bent out of the way like an architect's compass. Clevenger moved not. a. muscle. as the pitch sailed past Harper and to the Nationals Park backstop. The two Cubs should only be grateful plate ump Jerry Layne — who helped Clevenger nudge Harper away from thoughts of having a mano-a-mano showdown with Castillo at the mound — didn't throw them out of the game right then and there.

Only when Harper took a couple of steps forward to object to the no-questions-asked purpose pitch did Clevenger rise out of his crouch and step forward, looking to all the world like a peacemaker as he urged Harper back, followed by Werth and Ryan Zimmerman hustling quickly to the plate area to protect their "kid brother," as pitcher Gio Gonzalez would call him.

You could understand the Cubs' frustrations. The Nationals slapped them around like bowling pins in the set's first three. Until Harper got bent the Nats had been on a feeding frenzy including and especially a whopping 12 home runs in the first three games and 6 on Wednesday night alone. Lots of players don't hit 12 home runs in a season. Some don't hit that many in a career.

What you couldn't understand, of course, is why a kid pitcher who's been walking six per nine innings thus far, with an ERA that looks like the average price of a compact disc album, and a kid catcher who isn't exactly making that big an impression behind the dish or at the plate, are going to teach these rapacious Nats a lesson in manners by throwing at anyone. Never mind a Bryce Harper who's one teenager that doesn't know the meaning of throttling back when it comes to playing major league baseball.

"It's really frustrating," Clevenger drawled in the clubhouse. "They've been swinging the bat well all series, you can't do nothing about that. You try to make some pitches in, and things like that happen."

If all it was was trying to make a pitch inside, Clevenger wouldn't have sat like a catatonic as the pitch bent Harper and sailed to the backstop without so much as waving his mitt even to look like he was trying to spear it. If you're going to throw at someone with plausible deniability, protecting your pitcher includes making it look, all the way, like a pitch that just got away. Wave at it. Lunge at it. Anything but sitting still. It betrays you every time.

Somewhere in the milling and mewing that followed immediately, Clevenger, who swears he was still trying to play peacemaker, managed to swing an open hand at a Nat — possibly Ian Desmond, who happened to stumble back and knock umpire Bill Miller down accidentally, Desmond helping Miller up post haste — before trying a shove against hulking Nat Michael Morse. A Cub relief pitcher, Manny Corpas, could be seen in one of the few open spaces in the melee jawing and pointing at a Nat or two. Clevenger, Corpas, and Nats relief corpsman Miguel Gonzalez were thrown out of the game.

Layne left no question who he thought was to blame for touching off the entire evenings' rumble. He hung it on Quirk in the fifth, saying the bench coach's "screaming obscenities" at Porter was the pouring of the powder into the keg.

"Here we are in the fifth inning," Nats manager Davey Johnson said after the game. "We're in a pennant race, we're going to swing 3-0, we're going to do everything. We ain't stopping trying to score runs. Certainly a five-run lead at that time is nothing. I think it was the bench coach's frustration in us handing it to them for a couple days. If they want to quit competing and forfeit, then fine. But we're going to keep competing."

"It's probably one of the biggest butt-whuppings I've ever gotten in my career, as a coach or player," said Cubs manager Dale Sveum, whose baby bears had just been thrashed in four straight and outscored by 22 runs while they were at it. I don't remember getting manhandled that bad in any kind of series I've ever been a part of. Hopefully these young guys–the team that we're trying to build–can look back on this and learn a lot from it and know exactly where you got to be as a team to get there."

Johnson, managing to win. Sveum, managing to survive. You get the feeling the Cubs didn't learn a thing Thursday night, other than if you can't beat ‘em, try to bean ‘em or beat ‘em up.

"It's probably not going to help them avoid their first 100-loss season in [Cubs president of baseball operations] Theo Epstein's lifetime," writes the Sun-Times‘s Gordon Wittenmyer, "but the fight the Cubs showed in Thursday's 70-man scuffle with the Washington Nationals was a significant step in the growing process for the young team, said some of the clubhouse elders."

If that's so, how come no less than Cub first baseman Anthony Rizzo all but said after the drubbing was done that there was no earthly or other reason to think about throwing at Harper?

"I don't think he was over the top at all," Rizzo told the Chicago Tribune of Harper's immediate response after Castillo bent him in half. "Things escalated. Bryce, it wasn't like he was running his mouth or saying anything. He plays this game the right way. He plays hard. He's real exciting to watch. Playing against him, you have to contain him."

If Rizzo said as much to his teammates after it was all over, he'd have established himself as a legitimate team leader right away. Because the Cubs showed the wrong kind of fight Thursday night, but the Nats showed the right kind all week long. Among other things, it's the kind of fight that doesn't send you home for the winter to watch the postseason on television while leaving behind the impression you're nothing but a bunch of sore losers.

Situation Update — Clevenger was suspended one game for his part in the rhubarbs. He served the suspension Saturday. At this writing, assuming they still face baseball government discipline, neither Quirk, Castillo, nor Corpas have had any such discipline announced.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:28 PM | Comments (0)

September 7, 2012

NFL 2012 Season-Opener Thoughts

A collection of mostly random thoughts between Wednesday and Sunday...

The Giants looked terrible in the second half.

You don't want to draw too many conclusions from a single game, especially the first game. But man, the Giants looked really, really bad for the last two or three quarters of Wednesday's loss to Dallas. Everything was set up for New York. The Cowboys committed penalties on every other play, Jay Ratliff was out of the lineup, Jason Witten was a non-factor, starting center Phil Costa got hurt on the first series, the game was in New Jersey, with a crowd pumped up by a celebration of February's Super Bowl victory. And the Giants couldn't capitalize. The offensive line couldn't create opportunities for Ahmad Bradshaw. Victor Cruz couldn't hold onto the ball. The banged-up defensive backfield couldn't stop Kevin Ogletree.

In the first quarter, the Cowboys looked jittery, rusty, and underprepared. But they adjusted, or calmed down, or both, and the Giants fell apart. They looked bad on offense and defense. They didn't just get outplayed in the second half, they got absolutely dominated. If they play like that all season, they'll go about 4-12.

Cris Collinsworth was in really poor form.

This is unfair, but I have to lead with this, because it made me laugh out loud. With about 12:30 left in the third quarter, Collinsworth informed viewers, "Tyron Smith just went down on the linebacker, Jaquian Williams." Oh my.

But that's funny, and anyone who spends a lot of time speaking publicly will say something goofy eventually. The problem with Collinsworth is his occasional unwillingness to tell the truth. It's a shame, because Collinsworth is more willing than most of his peers to publicly criticize players who make mistakes. Many "journalists" are so concerned with their connections that they can't be candid with viewers. They don't want to offend the friends they used to play with, they don't want to lose interview opportunities with players who are mad at them, they don't want to be labeled haters, they're in awe of the people they cover. So they don't tell the whole truth.

Collinsworth is one of the most notable exceptions, but there are times when he weirdly departs from that and makes ridiculous pronouncements about certain players, mostly quarterbacks. Take his comments in the second quarter about Eli Manning. "Maybe he throws too many interceptions, but when the games are on the line, he makes phenomenal plays, and that's what you have to have, fourth quarter plays." The problem is, those fourth quarter plays don't matter if you fall behind by 20 points in the first three quarters. Last season, Eli was at his best in blowouts, not tight games.

With 3:42 left in the first half, Collinsworth criticized Victor Cruz for failing to catch a "perfectly thrown ball". And he was right, if an overthrown, wobbly duck counts as perfect. If that was a perfect pass, I'm a lot better quarterback than I thought. Maybe I should try out for the Giants.

The replacement refs did okay.

I'm really interested to see how the NFL's replacement officials do. A number of the league's longtime officials can't or won't do their jobs well, and I'd like to see a lot more turnover in the ranks. The league ought to be a lot more proactive about replacing referees who perform poorly, and I hope that some of the replacement refs who perform well will be invited to remain. They weren't perfect on Sunday night, but no officiating crew can be perfect, and they didn't seem any worse than the usual refs.

Mathias Kiwanuka has criticized the officials for not calling enough holding penalties on the Cowboys, but the zebras tagged Dallas for three times as many flags as the Giants. That's not unfairness by the refs, it's Kiwanuka being a sore loser.

It's time for NBC to stop giving David Diehl's racism a public platform.

Every time the Giants do their own introductions, Diehl pronounces himself a product of the "University of Chief Illiniwek," the former mascot of his alma mater, the University of Illinois. There's nothing wrong with honoring your school, but Chief Illiniwek is no longer the university's mascot, retired as an offensive relic of an age when racism was palatable to most of the public. The mascot was denounced by numerous organizations, including Amnesty International, the NEA, the NAACP, and eventually, the NCAA, which determined that Chief Illiniwek was a "hostile or abusive" mascot. Former sportswriter King Kaufman compared Chief Illiniwek's dance performance to a minstrel show.

And every time the Giants are on national television — which is fairly often — there's Diehl, striking a blow for racists everywhere. It's 2012. Either he should just say Illinois, or NBC should mute him. I'm tired of hearing it.

Art Modell does not belong in the Hall of Fame.

The former owner of the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens died on Thursday. I have no interest in disparaging the deceased, but some people are using Modell's passing as an opportunity to campaign for his enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and that's not appropriate either.

Modell fired Paul Brown, pushed Jim Brown into early retirement, fired Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Belichick, and stole the Browns from Cleveland for money. He was an owner for a long time, and some people seem to believe that alone merits football's highest honor. But what did Modell contribute to the NFL? He okayed Cleveland's move to the AFC, and that was important. He brought football back to Baltimore, though that was in the cards anyway. I'll tell you what, Modell supporters. If you'll push for Bob Irsay, maybe we can get the two of them inducted together. To me, they're equally worthy.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:25 PM | Comments (1)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 1 (Pt. 2)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

New England @ Tennessee (+6)

The Titans named Jake Locker their starter at quarterback early in the preseason and he, along with running back Chris Johnson, hope to lead the Titans challenge of the Texans in the AFC South. Mike Munchak knows he'll need big production from both Locker and Johnson.

"Chris Johnson has a lot to prove," Mike Munchak said, "so much so that he's hired a lawyer. Believe me, there are a lot of people who believe, with a reasonable doubt, that he can return to his 2010 form. I'm confident he can do it. Therefore, I'm christening our quarterback-running back duo 'Lock and Reload.' If that doesn't catch on, we'll try 'Jake and the Fast Man.'"

The Patriots are again favored to take the AFC East, and another trip to the Super Bowl appears well within reach. However, questions abound about the effectiveness of the Patriots defense, which ranked 31st in total defense last year.

"They say defense wins championships," Brady said. "Our defense put a stop to that adage, which, I believe, is the only thing they stopped all year.

"But we cannot take Tennessee lightly. Why? Well, if you look up the definition of 'Titan' in the dictionary, it says 'giant.' So, in essence, we're playing the 'Giants.' That, of course, doesn't bode well for our chances."

It's a tough opener for the Brady and the Pats, but with weaponry that would make Kenny Britt jealous, Brady and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez pass this early test.

New England wins, 30-27.

Jacksonville @ Minnesota (-4)

The Vikings aim to improve on last year's 3-13 record, but in the NFC North, arguably the NFL's toughest division, that will be a difficult task for head coach Leslie Frazier.

"Indeed," Frazier said. "We just want to make progress. Like Adrian Peterson's left knee, we hope to move in only one direction.

"In Adrian's reduced capacity, we're counting on Christian Ponder to carry us. He's the 'Christian Right' to Tim Tebow's 'Christian Left.' And speaking of 'reduced capacity,' I hear the Jags may be bringing a television blackout with them."

The Jaguars struggled mightily on offense last year, but running back Maurice Jones-Drew was the one constant, leading the league in rushing. Jones-Drew ended his holdout after 38 days, and will likely see limited playing time against the Vikes.

"Shahid Khan called my bluff," Jones-Drew said. "He obviously knows how to 'Pakistan-d' his ground. I guess you can say the terrorists won this one.

"But I think I know why negotiations went nowhere. It's hard to be serious when my agent and I are sitting across the table from Khan and his cartoonish mustache. It's like I Dream of Jeannie meets Ron Jeremy."

Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert could be in for a world of hurt on Sunday. Last year's NFL sack leader Jared Allen likes hunting, and he also likes blondes. And Gabbert, in addition to being "offenseless," is also "defenseless." It won't be a case of "He Went to Jared;" it will be a case of "Jared Went to Him."

Vikings win, 19-16.

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-3)

Rex Ryan and the Jets spent the balance of the offseason trying to determine a clear choice at quarterback. Finally, after much deliberation, Mark Sanchez was named the starter, although Tim Tebow will be used liberally.

"Quarterbacks aside," Rex Ryan said, "Antonio Cromartie may be the key to our offensive viability. In fact, we'd like to give him a look at quarterback. He's smart, athletic, and he wouldn't have to tackle anyone. It would be just like he was playing defense. Plus, he should have no problem supervising ten others. He's got 12 children, for Christ's sake. They call him 'Joe Paternal,' because he doesn't know when to say 'enough.'"

The Bills blasted out of the gate in 2011, winning four of their first five games before fading to a 6-10 record, including a seven-game losing streak.

"Ask anyone in Buffalo," Ryan Fitzpatrick said. "They'll tell you a seven-game losing streak is tolerable. It's those four-game losing streaks that pain a Buffalo native, particularly when it's to NFC teams.

"But I don't think it's crazy to aim for the Super Bowl. But let's not get carried away. We're plan to make it to the Super Bowl, not win it."

Many experts say this year's Jets defense could be the best in franchise history. The offense plans on giving them plenty of chances to prove it.

Fitzpatrick steers clear of Revis Island, and instead looks for short passes to Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. The Jets offense sputters, and Rian Lindell wins it with a late 43-yard field goal.

Buffalo wins, 19-17.

Miami @ Houston (-12)

The Dolphins, with new head coach Joe Philbin and new quarterback Ryan Tannehill, head to Houston to face the tough Texans, last year's AFC South champs.

"We are definitely a team that has experienced personnel changes," Philbin said. "We unloaded Brandon Marshall, which we called an 'attitude adjustment' to the roster.

"And in mid-August we released Chad Johnson. And in that same week, Reggie Bush returned his 2005 Heisman Trophy. That means two dark-skinned icons left town in the span of a week, something that hasn't happened since Crockett and Tubbs left Miami for Columbia to hunt Calderon."

The Texans advanced to the divisional round last year before falling to the Ravens. As they say, things are bigger in Texas, like the Texans' thinking, and they clearly have their sights set on the Super Bowl.

"Expectations are high," Gary Kubiak said. "Let's hope those expectations don't 'hamstring' our performance.

"We plan to throw a lot of looks at Tannehill with the intent of confusing him. Of course, the best way to do that may be asking him to explain the NFL's divisions."

The Texans have too much offense, and too much defense. By the fourth quarter, the Dolphins have had enough.

Houston wins, 35-9.

Seattle @ Arizona (+3)

Arizona was one of the last teams to name a starting quarterback, finally settling on John Skelton, in his third year out of Fordham.

"Let me make a correction," Ken Whisenhunt said. "I was, in fact, the first coach to name a starter. I did that in July, when I reeled off the names of 20 starters I'd rather call my own that what I have here.

"But we'll make do with what we have. John has started games before, but he's still learning. If he were a comedian, he'd be called 'Green Skelton.' But John's not a comedian, because there's nothing funny about him as my starting quarterback."

Pete Carroll named rookie Russell Wilson the starting quarterback in late August, while Matt Flynn, Seattle's prized free agent acquisition, will serve as backup.

"We paid handsomely for a backup quarterback this offseason, and that's exactly what we got in Matt Flynn," Carroll said. "I think everyone, myself included, expected Matt to be the starter. As it is, you can say Russell is 'in like Flynn.'

"Russell is a dynamic quarterback, with all the tools. Why don't we call him 'Russell Athletic?' Let's not, because Russell's not one to call attention to himself. If he did, we'd have to call him 'Russell Crow.'"

Wilson throws for a score, and rushes for one. Marshawn Lynch adds 106 yards on the ground to secure the win.

Seattle wins, 20-17.

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-5)

The 49ers and Packers begin their 2012 campaigns in a game that could very well preview the NFC Championship game come January. The 49ers won the West with a 13-3 record after a 6-10 record in 2010, before falling to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

"I think we've proven ourselves to be among the NFC's elite," Jim Harbaugh said. "You could say we're out of the closet.

"But we didn't rest on our laurels. We upgraded during the offseason, signing Randy Moss. That's got a lot of people thinking that Randy still has a little magic left. Maybe he does have a little 'tease in the afro' yet. I'm counting on it. It remains to be seen what's faster: Randy hitting a seam, or hitting waivers."

The Packers' league-best 15-1 record eventually fell victim to failure on defense, particularly in the defensive backfield. Last year's playoff loss to the Giants was a stinging reminder of the importance of balance.

"We can't blame all our troubles on our defense," Aaron Rodgers said. "In fact, I'd say our offense needs tweaking. That's why I advocated signing Tim Tebow. With Tebow on the roster, we'd be able to say 'Hail Mary's!' instead of giving up 'Hail Mary's!'"

Rodgers and the Packers' offense come out firing, and jump on the 49ers 14-0 in a hurry. San Fran battles back, but the Packers pull away for a 27-23 win.

Moss goes scoreless, but draws high praise for squirting a replacement official with a water bottle.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (+2½)

The Panthers open the season with their annual trip to Tampa, with their hot and bothered cheerleaders in tow. Second-year quarterback Cam Newton will carry the offense, and head coach Ron Rivera expects more out of a defense that was depleted by injuries last year.

"We were eaten alive by injuries last year," Rivera said. "But I'm not making excuses for them. I'm gonna come right out and say it. We need a lot more out of our defense. If that hurts feelings, then so be it. That being said, hurt feelings put a lot of our guys on injured reserve last year."

The fired-up Bucs come out ready, intercepting Newton on the Panthers first possession. Josh Freeman hooks up with new target Vincent Jackson 6 times for 98 yards and a score, and Tampa repels a late Carolina rally.

Tampa wins, 23-20.

Pittsburgh @ Denver (-1)

John Elway snatched up Peyton Manning in a hurry after trading away Tim Tebow. The Broncos won the AFC West with an 8-8 record last year, and the addition of the former Colt makes Denver an automatic Super Bowl contender.

"We made some hard decisions," Elway said. "And we determined that, with Tebow at quarterback, our season would likely go to hell.

"This is Peyton's team now. And this is Peyton's city. Everybody loves Peyton. That's more than you can say about Ben Roethlisberger. He's not loved. Heck, he's barely liked on Facebook. 'Tebow versus Roethlisberger' was a battle of 'good versus evil.' The same goes for 'Manning versus Roethlisberger.' Except the 'good' is actually good.'"

The Steelers were stunned by the Broncos in the first round of the playoffs last year, falling 29-23 in overtime. Sunday night's game is their first chance to avenge that painful loss.

"We've put that loss behind us," Mike Tomlin said. "On Sunday night, we're going to play our game. We don't need to worry about stopping Manning. The Broncos need to worry about stopping James Harrison. James has been looking forward to this game since the schedules came out. This may be his best chance ever to cripple an opponent."

Fired up and rowdy Denver fans, nicknamed the "Broncs' Zoo," go berserk when the public address system plays Charlie Rich's "Behind Closed Doors" when Roethlisberger hits the field during pre-game introductions. Manning's blind side is well-protected, as the Broncos' running backs assist the line in keeping Harrison at bay, thus allowing Manning to work downfield.

Manning throws for 259 yards and 2 scores, and the Broncos win, 24-22.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-6)

The Ravens saw their AFC championship hopes drift away as Billy Cundiff's 32-yard field goal sailed wide left, giving the Patriots a 23-20 win. They'll face AFC North rivals Cincinnati as Baltimore looks to make another championship run.

"As you know," said John Harbaigh, "we released Cundiff on August 26th, which was about seven months too late. Billy's been kicking himself for that miss all offseason, but I hear he's missed every time."

Last year, the Bengals joined the Ravens and Steelers in the playoffs, giving the North three of the AFC's six representatives.

"Luckily," Andy Dalton said, "Terrell Suggs is out for this game and others with a torn Achilles' heel. He went from a 'terror' to a 'tear-or.' I hear they're flying the flags at Ball So Hard University at well below half-mast, which I interpret as 'one-foot off the ground.'"

Ravens win, 20-16.

San Diego @ Oakland (+1)

With a 10:15 EST Time kickoff scheduled, there are many fans who will likely be asleep by halftime of Monday night AFC West showdown. And those are the people that choose to watch the game. But that takes nothing away from the game's intensity, as the Chargers-Raiders rivalry is one of the league's most heated.

"An opening week win is vital," said new Raiders head coach Dennis Allen, "especially over a division opponent. In the AFC West, every win counts, often on one hand.

"When December comes, you can be sure to find us in the hunt for the West crown, just as surely as you can find Sebastian Janikowski on the hunt at 'Slipped Mickey's Bar And Grill.'"

Often tabbed in year's past as a Super Bowl contender, Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have yet to reach that potential. This may be their last chance to fulfill that ambition.

"Peyton Manning's not the only neck injury in the AFC West," Rivers said. "At least he got his fixed. This team's been choking for years and we still haven't done anything about it.

"But you may see a different mindset in San Diego this year. We're playing with a newfound killer instinct. Norv Turner has instilled the need to play every game like it is your last. He's spent a long career coaching with that same philosophy. This year, it just might come to fruition."

Raiders win, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:01 PM | Comments (0)

September 6, 2012

Count On It

1. Peyton Manning will not play at a Pro Bowl level … and will make the Pro Bowl anyway.

Let me preface this by saying unequivocally that Manning is already a first ballot Hall-of-Famer — Peyton Manning has always largely been a product of the perfect system, a system built to make him successful. He had two Canton-bound WRs, an elite tight end, and one of the best offensive line groups in the league. It's not that he's not impressive on paper, it's just that Tom Brady doing better with Deion Branch and Troy Brown is more impressive.

Given all that, it seems all too obvious that Manning is due to see a steep regression is system that lacks the pieces that made him successful before. But there's more than that working against him this year.

Neck surgeries are serious — three neck surgeries are even more serious. Add to this that he hasn't played a regular season game in almost two years, and it's hard to see why anyone would think that he'll surpass a total of about 3,500 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns.

In today's NFL, those aren't Pro Bowl numbers for a QB. In an almost maddeningly Peyton-centric offseason, however, I've seen that no amount of logic or facts will keep Manning from the Pro Bowl this year.

2. The Kansas City Chiefs will win the AFC West … and have a top-five defense.

If you're smart enough to have seen past the lie that Peyton Manning will be the best QB in the league again this year, you've probably realized that the AFC West is wide open this year. If you've paid enough attention to the Chiefs roster, you've probably seen the deepest and arguably best roster in the division.

I don't see a way for the Chiefs to miss out on winning the division this year — honestly, someone name one player not named Matt Cassel that will start for the Chiefs this year that you wouldn't want playing for your team. The defense will shock anyone who hasn't been watching closely, and may just earn Romeo Crennel Coach of the Year honors in 2012.

Besides all of this, the Chiefs have put together enough offensive pieces that even Matt Cassel can't possibly fail this year. A strong group of receivers and tight ends, two elite running backs, and a stout offensive line will allow the Chiefs to score plenty of points. Couple this together with the elite defense, and the Chiefs look to be a force in the AFC this year.

3. The San Diego Chargers will get back to double-digit wins … and make the playoffs again.

This one is pretty simple. The Chargers are a talented team, with a coach who knows his job his on the line and a QB who knows his reputation is, as well.

Add to this that they'll enjoy a season free from the burden of expectations for the first time on a long time, and the formula for success is right there. If not for the loaded roster in Kansas City, they'd take the division. Either way, they'll be playing postseason football once again this year.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 6:10 PM | Comments (0)

The Next Generation

The Big Four have been around for a while now.

At first, it was just Roger Federer, head and shoulders above the crowd, but soon he was joined by the teenage Rafael Nadal, and the two dominated both the world rankings and the grand slams, giving nothing away for three years.

Not long after came Novak Djokovic, and then Andy Murray joined the fray. These are now long established as the Big Four — top in the world rankings and the main contenders in every slam.

Of course, occasionally someone tries to rock the boat. Robin Soderling, with two good runs at the French Open, along with a few indoor titles, broke into the top four for a brief period. But this was him playing at full pelt, on top form, whilst Andy Murray chose to play exhibition tournaments instead of ranking tournaments at the beginning of the year. Once the Australian Open came and went, Murray was back on top.

Juan Martin Del Potro has a similar story, though his trophy cabinet now boasts a grand slam trophy. Murray is the only member of the top four without a major title to his name, but he backs up his status in the Big Four with seven Masters 1000 titles. The huge Argentine has none.

Contenders like Soderling, Del Potro, and others like David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will come and go, but the Big Four are resolute in their places.

But the time of such dominance is surely waning. Murray and Djokovic are both 25, and while they have a few years in them, and they can hope to challenge for the big titles, they can't expect to do that week-in week-out.

Federer is 31. He has proven that he is still capable of winning grand slams at his age, but how long will that last? Two years? Maybe three?

Rafael Nadal has always been a ticking time bomb. Because of the sheer physicality of his game, and the knee injuries that have plagued him, it was always certain that an injury would call time on his career, rather than an inability to keep up with the youngsters. His recent knee problems bring an air of doubt. Will he ever be fully fit? Will he return to No. 1 in the world?

These four players have dominated for so long now, that it is almost impossible to foresee a future without them. But in time they will fade away, and someone will have to take up the mantle.

I don't think we will see an era like the current one for a long, long time. To have four players so far ahead of the rest of the pack was unprecedented, and so I think it better to go back to a more commonly seen rivalry between two players. Rivalries like Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi; Bjorn Borg and John McEnroe. Isn't that something to be excited about?

Who will these two players be? Well, for now, it is impossible to predict. We have to look four or five years ahead to see who will be dominating, and therefore one of my two may still be 15 or 16, meaning they are not yet on the main circuit.

But if I am to pick one player who has the potential to go a long, long way, it is Milos Raonic.

In his recent match against Andy Murray, he showed that he has a lot of firepower and a lot of weapons. He has the ability to be a great champion, and to win multiple slams.

He does have a lot to improve on, however. He is exceedingly cocky (didn't do Andy Roddick any harm, of course), stating in a press interview before the match that he wouldn't have to adapt to play Murray, but Murray would have to change to play him.

Maybe that was the case, but the problem was that Murray had the ability to change his game, and he did. He had a formula for beating Raonic, and he executed it perfectly. Murray changed his game because he had a Plan B. Murray has Plans A all the way through to F, and can change his game to suit each player. Raonic has only a Plan A.

His Plan A is good, mind you, but he just needs a little more variation in his game, and some of those close losses suddenly become comfortable wins.

My other player, for now is Bernard Tomic. He is a year younger than Raonic, and has all the same weapons. Tomic's Achilles Heel too is an over-confidence. That, and his laziness. I have never before seen a player whose footwork is sloppier than school tapioca pudding. He swats at the ball from the baseline "T," and doesn't come in to finish off points when he should, preferring to stay back and risk being played into a corner.

But Tomic's worst flaw is that other players find him so easy to read. He tries to second-guess where his opponent will serve, and moves early. Top players see that movement, and simply serve to the other corner.

For these two players, improvements must be made, but they have the skills to be champions. Whereas many pundits are tipping Ryan Harrison and Jack Sock to make a big step forward, I am not seeing it just yet. Good players, but just lacking a certain je ne çais quoi. But after all, these are the pundits who backed Ernests Gulbis, Kei Nishikori, and Marin Cilic to win slams. And we saw what happened there, didn't we?

Posted by Angus Saul at 11:59 AM | Comments (2)

September 5, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 1 (Pt. 1)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Dallas @ NY Giants (-4)

"It is on!" Or so says Eli Manning, whose dorky charisma makes him the one of the NFL's most likable fellows, albeit one everybody believes they could outsmart in a game of hide-and-seek. Manning and the Giants begin defense of last year's Super Bowl against the Cowboys in MetLife Stadium.

"There's no quarterback controversy on this New York team," Manning said. "Jesus loves me, and so do my coaches. And none of our wide receivers requires a babysitter, although they may need an escort from time to time. Dez Bryant has his problems, but as far as talent goes, well, he has physical gifts that make you wanna smack your momma."

On the other hand, which is bereft of Super Bowl rings, Tony Romo's charismatic dorkiness leads a Cowboy team looking to break through. Dallas has not won a Super Bowl since 1996, when Neil O'Donnell led the 'Boys to the title.

"Jerry Jones has dedicated much of his life to the search for 'glory holes,'" Romo said. "The way Jerry talks so glowingly of his team, you'd think he was the 'gusher.' Luckily for Jerry, we're playing in MetLife Stadium, where a glory hole comes standard in every restroom stall.

"I think we have the team to win this game and the NFC East. Personally, I would have loved to have seen Chad Johnson as a Cowboy. That would have silenced many of our critics, most of whom say we can't win a Super Bowl without a 'Johnson.'"

It's an unusual Wednesday night opener for the NFL, and on "Hump Day," you'd expect to see Antonio Cromartie. But the only "hump" to be seen on Wednesday is the one the Cowboys can't get over. The Giants beat the Cowboys, again, as Manning throws for three scores and the New York defensive front treats Romo like Jimmy Hoffa and plant him in the Stadium turf.

Giants win, 30-24.

After the game, a dejected Romo is mistaken for John Malkovich and pelted with Jason Witten's spleen from a passerby on the New Jersey Turnpike.

Atlanta @ Kansas City (+3)

The Falcons debut a retooled offense, one that eschews conservatism for a more dynamic approach, utilizing the big play skills of wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, and shifty running back Jacquizz Rodgers. A tough assignment at Arrowhead Stadium awaits the Falcons, who are favored by many to win the NFC South.

"Like the traffic," Mike Smith said, "excitement is rampant in Atlanta. We call our new offense the 'Go for it! … Just not on fourth down" offense. A more high-powered offense will also alleviate some pressure on our defense, such as the pressure of having to score all the team's points in a playoff game."

The Chiefs, one year removed from a playoff appearance, are excited for the return of playmaker Jamaal Charles, who was lost in Week 1 last year to a knee injury.

"We plan to give Jamaal 25 to 30 touches per game," head coach Romeo Crenel said. "Of course, that's something you never want to hear in a Penn State locker room, but in Arrowhead Stadium, it's music to our ears.

"I understand the Falcons are treating this like a playoff game. Well, it's on the road and they'll go home afterwards. Yep. That's a Falcon playoff game."

Crenel and the Chiefs defense have just the defense to confuse Ryan and the Falcons — it's called their base defense.

Charles rushes for 114 yards and a touchdown, and Ryan throws 2 interceptions.

Chiefs win, 26-23.

Philadelphia @ Cleveland (+8)

Can Michael Vick experience an injury-free season, something he hasn't done since Spring 2009 in the Sussex County, Virginia jail? The hopes of the Eagles ride on that unlikely possibility after an injury-filled preseason for Vick.

"To say Michael 'cracks under pressure' says nothing of his performance in big games," Andy Reid said. "His ribs are quite brittle. If God were to take one of Mike's ribs and create a woman, she'd damn sure let a serpent talk her into taking a calcium supplement."

The Philly defense will put all kinds of pressure on Browns 28-year-old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden, who earned the starting job over incumbent Colt McCoy.

"You may see an NFL first," Pat Shurmur said, "and that's a team encouraging its players to 'Smoke Weed.'' But I think Brandon will be fine. He's a good five or six years older than most rookies. His maturity, much like his ERA as a minor league baseball player, is beyond his years."

Vick debuts his new protective gear, the "full metal flak jacket," which protects him well not only against hits from the Browns, but also from the various brands of barbecue sauce hurled his way be the rabid Dawg Pound, presumably for its tenderizing effects.

Vick survives, and LeSean McCoy scores on two touchdown jaunts.

Eagles win, 29-10.

Washington @ New Orleans (-9)

It's new versus old as rookie Robert Griffin III faces veteran superstar Drew Brees in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, which has sheltered more dangerous hurricanes than former University Of Miami coach Jimmy Johnson. In all likelihood, by game's end, they'll be scoring it "Drew Brees I, Robert Griffin 0."

"I don't think so," Mike Shanahan said. "RG III will surprise people with his athleticism, smarts, and savvy, as well as his new Subway campaign, in which he shamelessly peddles subs by urging customers to 'Go Long' for the 12-inch sandwich or make it 'III and Inches" for the smaller version.

"RG has even hooked up Rex Grossman with a Subway endorsement deal. For those not hungry enough for a 12- or 6-inch sub, Rex suggests they eat a 'lesser sub.'"

Who's coaching the Saints this year, while Sean Payton sits in exile? It's none other than Aaron Cromer, named the interim head coach in the wake of Payton's and Joe Vitt's suspensions for their roles in the Saints' bounty scandal.

"It's too bad Payton got busted," Cromer said. "He himself was set to sign with Subway to tout their delicious subs with the catchy slogan, 'Take it in the Mouth.' But Roger Goodell doesn't take kindly to verbiage that could be interpreted in more than one way, unless it's testimony from an accused Saint."

The Saints have a statement to make, but unfortunately, no one will believe what they have to say. The Saints come after Griffin with everything, including the kitchen sink, which, when in need of a cleansing wipe down, can be done with "Bounty."

New Orleans wins, 34-17.

Indianapolis @ Chicago (-9)

With Peyton Manning, the Colts won with skill. Now, they hope to win with "Luck," as the Andrew Luck era begins for the Colts as they face the Bears at Soldier Field.

"I'm honored to be the quarterback to follow Peyton Manning," Luck said. "I realize I've got big shoes to fill. Of course, my feet feel tiny in Peyton's shoes. Indianapolis is now my home, and, like Peyton, I'm going to put my neck out for this team."

Brandon Marshall is back in Chicago, reunited with Jay Cutler, and Lovie Smith and the Bears hope that connection can serve as catalyst for the Bears 2012 campaign.

"I love reunions," Lovie Smith said. "Cutler and Kristin Cavallari's reunion resulted in a baby boy, 7-pound, 9-ounce Camden. Hopefully, Cutler and Marshall's reunion can result in another 'berth,' preferably one in the playoffs, although given Marshall's unpredictable nature, he'll likely outweigh baby Camden and be a 'bigger baby.'"

The Colts may have Luck on their side, but there's also a lot of Bears on their side, as the Chicago defense continually penetrates the Indy offensive line. Julius Peppers records a sack and a fumble recovery, and the Bears win, 30-13.

St. Louis @ Detroit (-8)

Expectations, like blood alcohol contents, are high in Detroit, as is the pitch of police sirens en route to the latest inebriated Lion. The Lions and their high-powered offense made the playoffs in 2011, and they appear primed to challenge for the NFC North.

"The season is in its infancy," Jim Schwartz said, "and we're sitting at 0-0. I'm going to say this while I can: 'Our record is clean.'

"Criminal history aside, we certainly don't lack 'offense.' Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are arguably the most formidable connection in the NFL. Calvin is unstoppable. I wonder why Citizen watches have yet to hire Calvin to appear in their 'Unstoppable' campaign. Maybe because it would lead to inevitable 'Doin' Time' jokes about my team."

Jeff Fisher is now in charge in St. Louis, and has his work cut out for him in the NFC West, where the Rams finish a lowly 2-14 last year. Fisher's hard-nosed mentality should serve him well in reversing the fortunes in St. Louis.

"We just want to be competitive," Fisher said. "As you know, I'm co-chairman of the NFL Competition Committee. Hopefully, I'll be able to practice what I preach."

Do the Rams have an answer for Johnson? Indeed they do. That answer is "No," to the question, "Any idea how to stop Megatron?"

Johnson grabs 9 passes for 145 yards and 2 scores.

Detroit wins, 34-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:33 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 25

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin beat Martin Truex, Jr. out of the pits on the race's final caution, and then held off Jeff Gordon to win the AdvoCare 500. Hamlin's fourth win of the year will give him the top seed in the Chase in two weeks, barring a win at Richmond by Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, or Brad Keselowski.

"I kept Gordon out of the winner's circle," Hamlin said, "which may have put Kyle Busch in the Chase. You may think I'm doing Kyle a favor. Not so. In fact, I'm doing myself a favor, by letting a driver in the Chase who has no chance of winning the Cup."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson sparked a wreck with 56 laps to go when he made contact with Sam Hornish, Jr. sent Johnson into the wall. The No. 48 Lowe's Chevy spun sideways and was slammed by Newman's No. 39. Johnson finished 34th, 58 laps down.

"I guess I didn't see Hornish," Johnson said. "That's probably because he's been 'invisible' since coming to NASCAR from Indy cars."

3. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished third at Atlanta with his 10th top-five finish of the year. He is now sixth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 48 out of first, and by virtue of his three wins, will start no worse than second in the Chase.

"Joey Logano will be my new teammate in 2013," Keselowski said. "If he's anything like me, and nothing like A.J. Allmendinger, then he won't take anything from anybody."

4. Greg Biffle — Biffle started on the front row at Atlanta, but struggled with handling issues for much of the night and finished 15th. He still leads the point standings with one more race before the Chase For the Cup field is set.

"I'm just happy to still be on top in the point standings," Biffle said. "Even if it's for just one more week, I still have more 'staying power' than some of my Roush Fenway teammates. If it's not Matt Kenseth telling us he's going somewhere, it's Carl Edwards telling us he's not going somewhere. For the Chase, it seems, none of us are going anywhere."

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt surged on the green-white-checkered finish at Atlanta, taking seventh in the AdvoCare 500. He moved up one spot to second in the point standings, where he trails Greg Biffle by eight.

"They say once the Chase begins," Earnhardt said, "the 'cream rises to the top.' Does that explain why I'll tumble down the standings when the points are reset?"

6. Tony Stewart — Stewart struggled at Atlanta, running two laps down for much of the race before finishing 22nd, one lap down to the leaders. Stewart has not finished better than 19th in the last four races, and is 10th in the Chase, 18 points ahead of Kasey Kahne.

"As you know," Stewart said, "I'm losing Office Depot as a primary sponsor. Whereas the No. 14 has been 'Office Depot'd' for many years, it's now being 'Office Deposed.' It seems that sponsorships, like helmets, are going 'Mobil.'"

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led the Roush Fenway charge at Atlanta, finishing ninth for his 15th top-10 of the year. He is third in the point standings, 21 out of first.

"Tony Stewart said there is no ill will between us from the Bristol helmet toss," Kenseth said. "Considering Stewart's history of holding grudges, I'm skeptical when he says 'we're cool.'

"I'm finally able to officially announce my signing with Joe Gibbs Racing. It's not like it was a secret, so I was quite taken aback by all the questions 'thrown' at me at the press conference."

8. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex hopes for his first win of the year crumbled when Jamie McMurray slammed the wall with five laps to go. Truex was edged out of the ensuing pit stop by Denny Hamlin, and eventually finished fourth. He is fifth in the point standings, and unless he wins at Richmond on Saturday, will start at the bottom of the Chase field.

"I, along with NAPA, signed on for another three years with Michael Waltrip Racing," Truex said. "Now, I think I'd rather 'dot the eyes' of McMurray as opposed to those of the contracts."

9. Kevin Harvick — Harvick led 101 laps, second to Denny Hamlin's 105, and finished fifth, his first top-five result since a second at Dover. Harvick is ninth in the point standings, 72 out of first.

"A water bottle may have cost me the win in Saturday's Nationwide race," Harvick said. "I only wish the explanation for my lack of Sprint Cup wins could be explained as easily."

10. Kyle Busch — Busch kept his Chase hopes alive, with help from Joe Gibbs teammate Denny Hamlin, with a sixth in the AdvoCare 500. Hamlin's win prevented Jeff Gordon from an all-important second victory, thereby allowing Busch to maintain a wild card spot.

"If anyone deserves to be a 'wild card,'" Busch said, "it's me, although the 'old' Kyle Busch was wilder and more of a card than the 'current' Kyle Busch. Strangely enough, for once, people are encouraging me to 'go wild.'"

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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:09 AM | Comments (0)

September 4, 2012

NFL Preseason Power Rankings

Preseason predictions are intimidating. Since the NFL's expansion and realignment in 2002, a little less than half the playoff field from the previous year reaches the postseason again.

That averages out to 5.8 teams, so if you're using the previous season to make predictions, a lot of those predictions will be wrong. Part of that is normal regression to the mean by teams that overachieved the year before. Part of it is tougher strength of schedule. Part of it is injury problems for teams that played extra games and had a shorter off-season. Part of it is that bad teams raid good teams in free agency. Part of it is good players getting old and young players getting good. There's a lot to consider. This season, I'm picking eight playoff teams to repeat, which is high but not unprecedented.

The numbered rankings below are for right now, beginning-of-season strength, and not necessarily a forecast of each team's success over the course of the whole year. However, the brackets show predicted regular-season record, and you'll find postseason predictions at the bottom.

1. Green Bay Packers [11-5] — No team has a tougher early schedule. They open with the 49ers and Bears, at Seattle, Saints at home, then three straight road games. A defense-oriented draft and the acquisition of former Colts center Jeff Saturday help fortify a team that last year was already the league's best, but there are some questions at linebacker, where injuries, suspensions, and youth make for some uncertainty and could limit the explosive potential of Clay Matthews III. Defensive captain Charles Woodson, entering his 15th season, will turn 36 this year. The Packers face a lot of challenges in 2012. As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, though, the team should be among the league's best.

2. Atlanta Falcons [11-5] — Their offense has the fantasy football community freaking out. Matt Ryan is finally seen as a high-level quarterback, Michael Turner led the NFC in rushing last season, Tony Gonzalez refuses to grow old, and the wide receiver tandem of Julio Jones and Roddy White is probably the league's best. The defense is just okay, but if the offense produces the way people expect, okay is enough for the Falcons to win their division, and probably a first-round bye in the playoffs.

3. New England Patriots [12-4] — Cut a lot of veterans this offseason, including some free agents like those who have been re-born here in the past. The questions are still the running game, defensive line and pass rush, and health of key starters. It also will be interesting to see how opposing defenses adapt to New England's dynamic, unconventional two-tight end attack. Is there a way to cover it that no one figured out last year? Even amidst the uncertainty, the Patriots remain a strong favorite to repeat as division champs.

4. Houston Texans [11-5] — How good would they have been last year if everyone was healthy? Even with T.J. Yates at quarterback and Andre Johnson injured, Houston won its first-ever playoff game last season. With Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Owen Daniels, and a mostly-healthy Johnson back, can this offense be stopped? Perhaps not, but the defense lost Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans and figures to take a step backward, even with first-round draft choice Whitney Mercilus stepping in for the oft-injured Williams. I'm also concerned about the losses of offensive linemen Mike Brisiel and Eric Winston. This team is still stacked with talent, though, and if most of the play-makers stay healthy, it should repeat as AFC South champion.

5. San Francisco 49ers [9-7] — Last season, they went 7-2 in games decided by seven points or less. Did Alex Smith finally turn the corner, or was last season just one of those years when everything goes right? Can Frank Gore stay healthy? Can the rest of the team? Is Randy Moss (listed as a starter!) a leader or a distraction? For that matter, is Jim Harbaugh a leader or a distraction? The Niners' defense looks terrific on paper, but I'm concerned about depth, and I have a feeling that with so many things breaking their way in 2011, they're due for some bad luck in 2012. Maybe it's Alex Smith turning back into a pumpkin, maybe it's a couple of key injuries, maybe it's just bad breaks in close games. But San Francisco had a charmed season a year ago, and that seldom happens twice in a row.

6. Baltimore Ravens [10-6] — They begin the season with 2011 Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, meaning he will miss at least the first six games, and probably more. The team lost its other starting outside linebacker (Jarret Johnson) in free agency, along with its best defensive end, Cory Redding. Meanwhile, Ray Lewis turned 37 and is coming off a season in which the team was better off without him. With Lewis in the lineup, Baltimore went 8-4 and allowed 18.0 pts/gm. When he was sidelined by injury, the Ravens went 4-0 with 12.5 pts/gm. The Ravens were still good with Lewis on the field, but they were better when he was on the sidelines. Everyone slows down eventually. Put it all together, and this defense could be looking at a significant drop in performance.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [9-7] — Moving on without longtime standouts James Farrior and Aaron Smith. They also begin the season without starting RB Rashard Mendenhall and first-round draft pick David DeCastro, both of whom are expected to be out until after the Week 4 bye. That said, most analysts expect improved offensive line performance and, with Antonio Brown stepping up for the retired Hines Ward, a more dangerous passing attack. Stars like Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu have been in and out of the lineup in recent years, but if the team can stay healthy (and un-suspended, in James Harrison's case), Pittsburgh can compete with anyone. It's a big if.

8. Detroit Lions [9-7] — Enter the season facing high expectations, for the first time since the Barry Sanders era. Unlike most teams following a breakout season, the Lions won't confront a significantly upgraded strength of schedule, with contests against the NFC West and AFC South. No one expects Calvin Johnson to repeat his brilliant 2011 performance, but he's the top wide receiver in the NFL, and the offense should be explosive as long as he's on the field. Detroit hopes to see the disruptive Ndamukong Suh of 2010, not the foot-stompin' Suh of last season.

9. Chicago Bears [10-6] — They were 7-3 when Jay Cutler broke his thumb. With Cutler and Matt Forte healthy, plus Cutler's reunion with former Bronco Brandon Marshall, the Bears could complement their strong defense with a potent offense. Even if Cutler and Forte get hurt again, Jason Campbell and Michael Bush inspire far more confidence than last year's backups, Caleb Hanie and Marion Barber. Brian Urlacher is battling a knee injury, so it remains to be seen how close he is to 100%. Chicago's biggest challenge may simply be a tough schedule and sharing a division with the Lions and Packers.

10. New York Giants [8-8] — The defending champs went 9-7 last year, making the playoffs only because the Cowboys collapsed, the Eagles crumbled under pressure, and Jerome Boger's Week 4 officiating crew had money on their game against the Cardinals. The good news is that the team suffered no major losses in free agency, Eli Manning is coming off by far his best season, perennial headache Brandon Jacobs is gone, and there are exciting young players on both sides of the ball in Victor Cruz and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Giants drafted to fortify their offense, so the pressure rests with the defense to generate pressure up front and hold leads when the opponent starts passing. I'm not crazy about the linebacking corps, and even one injury on the shallow offense line could really hamper that explosive offense.

11. Philadelphia Eagles [9-7] — Despite all the "Dream Team" criticism, when they were good last year, they were very good. Philadelphia finished in the top 10 in total offense, total defense, points scored, and points allowed, winning seven of the last 11 games, including each of the last four. The Eagles went 5-1 in division games and outscored their opponents by 68 points. Former Texans LB DeMeco Ryans, a free agency addition, gives the team an outstanding leader in the middle, so this team should be Super Bowl-bound, right?

Maybe not. All-pro tackle Jason Peters, the best offensive lineman in the NFL, ruptured his Achilles tendon this Spring, and the offensive line is now a serious question mark. That's a big deal when you have an injury-prone QB and the backup is a rookie drafted in the third round. And first-round pick Fletcher Cox just fills the hole created by Mike Patterson's brain condition, which could keep him out all season. I expect the Eagles to start strong, but I believe Michael Vick will get injured eventually, and when he does, this offense is just going to go in the tank. Losing Peters is a very big deal.

12. Cincinnati Bengals [9-7] — You don't normally like to see a lot of offseason turnover from a playoff team, but I don't think the Bengals lost a lot of talent, and they had an awfully nice draft. Everyone expects Andy Dalton and A.J. Green to take the next step this year, and if they do, Cincinnati could push for a division title. I really like their interior defensive line, and I'm very high on the Bengals as a backup defense in fantasy leagues. They pair especially well with the Steelers, Packers, Patriots, Jets, or Lions, based on schedule and projected matchups.

13. Seattle Seahawks [10-6] — The strength of this team is its great young secondary. Marshawn Lynch was a beast last year, and rookie QB Russell Wilson beat free agent Matt Flynn to become the starting quarterback, but I'm skeptical that Wilson can succeed with a mediocre offensive line and sub-par receiving corps. Seattle should have a good defense, if the offense can string enough drives together to keep it off the field. I like Wilson, but I don't know that the team has put him in position to succeed. If Sidney Rice can stay healthy and Braylon Edwards can resurrect his career, Seattle could be a team to reckon with.

14. San Diego Chargers [8-8] — The last time I picked someone other than San Diego to win the AFC West was 2006, when I predicted the Broncos and should have gone with San Diego, who turned out to be the best team in the NFL. The Chargers' draft focused on defense, and if the key players can stay on the field, you might see dramatic improvement on that side of the ball. Unfortunately, the offense appears to be moving in the other direction. The wild card is Ryan Mathews. When healthy, he's produced almost like LaDainian Tomlinson, and he could turn San Diego into a serious contender. If Mathews falters, this is Norv Turner's last year in powder blue.

15. New Orleans Saints [8-8] — How much of their success is just Drew Brees? We'll find out this season. Head coach Sean Payton and defensive captain Jonathan Vilma are suspended for the year, along with shorter suspensions for some lesser names. All-pro guard Carl Nicks signed with a division rival, and wide receiver Robert Meachem went to San Diego. Barrett Ruud steps in for Vilma, but the Saints face a lot of challenges. The offense will still put up big yardage numbers, but it's hard to see the Saints making a serious run in 2012.

16. Buffalo Bills [8-8] — Upgraded their pass rush with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, plus the offensive line and defensive backfield are starting to come together. Are we underrating this team because it's weakest at the offensive glamor positions? Or are we overrating it, because blocking and defense are nice but you can't win without some play-makers on offense? In 2011, the Bills started 5-2 and finished 6-10. Part of that was the injury to Fred Jackson, but C.J. Spiller played okay as his replacement, so it wasn't the only problem. Jackson is also 31 and coming off a major injury. If you think the Bills will be better this season because he'll be healthy and effective all year, you're kidding yourself. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills start strong, but I don't expect them to keep it up for 16 weeks.

17. Dallas Cowboys [7-9] — It is stunning that Jason Garrett is a head coach in the NFL. The Cowboys lost four of their last five in 2011, missing the playoffs by a single game. The potential is there for this to be an explosive team. But the running backs and receivers need to stay healthy, Jason Witten needs to get healthy, the offensive line needs to start blocking again, and the draft choices and free agents signed to the defense this offseason need to make an impact early. I'm interested to see how the team uses DeMarco Murray, but I don't have faith in the team to turn potential into results. It's another roller-coaster season, up one week and down the next, leading to a finish in the neighborhood of .500.

18. Arizona Cardinals [7-9] — Played well late last season, winning seven of their last nine. They're solid at most positions, but wretched at quarterback (John Skelton) and probably not much better at RB (Beanie Wells). I've been saying this for two years now, but they need to get LaRod Stephens-Howling involved on offense. He's a Darren Sproles-type player. The Cardinals have an underrated defense and good receivers, so if Skelton can put it together, they'll make a run at the NFC West title.

19. New York Jets [8-8] — The forecast for their offense is more dismal than ever, with personnel that might generously be described as "solid". Some players react to a challenge in training camp and preseason by elevating their games and showing the world what they can do. Others react by losing their confidence and making mistakes. We won't know until the season starts, but it seems like most people are putting Mark Sanchez in the second category. It became apparent last year that this team has real chemistry issues, and this season, Rex Ryan probably needs to devote less attention to the media and more to fostering cohesion in the locker room. The defense, a revelation in 2009, now just looks like Darrelle Revis and 10 other guys.

20. Kansas City Chiefs [8-8] — Two years ago, they won the AFC West. Last season, Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, and Eric Berry all ended up on IR. Between return from injury and lower strength of schedule, the Chiefs should be a serious threat to recapture the division crown. The team was aggressive in free agency, bringing in Peyton Hillis and OT Eric Winston, and a highly regarded draft should solidify the offensive and defensive lines. Unfortunately, they begin the season with their best player suspended for a game (OLB Tamba Hali) and several defensive starters battling injury. Nonetheless, they're my pick to win the AFC West.

21. Carolina Panthers [7-9] — I wish they'd done more to address their pass defense in the offseason, and I suspect that will be the team's weak link in 2012. All-pro LB Jon Beason, who only played one game last season, returns from the injured list and should provide a significant boost. Cam Newton had a tremendous rookie season, but he's not going to score 14 rushing touchdowns this year, and I hope Carolina will invest more in the running game without leaning on Newton. I expect this year's Panthers to look a lot like last year's Panthers.

22. Tennessee Titans [7-9] — Jake Locker takes the reins as QB, Chris Johnson didn't hold out, Kenny Britt's one-game suspension overlaps with his injury rehab, rookie Kendall Wright should add some pop to the offense, and they added Steve Hutchinson in free agency. They also lost two of their best defensive players, Cortland Finnegan and Barrett Ruud, and did little to address a pass rush that plummeted last season without Jason Babin. If someone steps up and the offense gels, Tennessee could be one of the best teams in the AFC, but I think there are too many things that have to break right, and I see them close to .500. The Titans have a nasty September schedule, so don't lose hope if they open 1-3.

23. Denver Broncos [7-9] — Are they getting the Peyton Manning who led Indianapolis to nine straight postseasons, or just an old guy who can't make all the throws any more and might be afraid to get hit? At worst, Manning is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the game, experienced and able to read defenses. On the other hand, he spent years developing rapport with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, he played most of his games indoors, and he's coming off an injury some people thought might end his career. You hate to reduce a team's season to the quarterback, but when the QB is Peyton Manning, it makes a big difference. Just look at last year's Colts.

24. Miami Dolphins [6-10] — Got their new quarterback, first-round pick Ryan Tannehill, but does he have anyone to throw to? Brandon Marshall is gone, and the top wide receivers are Davone Bess and Brian Hartline. I imagine Reggie Bush and Anthony Fasano will see a lot of passes, but those guys aren't going to stretch the field. With a limited offense and a defense transitioning back to the 4-3, it's tough to see this as anything other than a rebuilding year for Miami.

25. Oakland Raiders [7-9] — Didn't really have a draft, because of the Carson Palmer trade, and hired their third different opening-day head coach in the last three seasons. Dennis Allen is the Raiders' sixth HC in the last eight years, and I believe the lack of stability has really held back the team. There hasn't been a tenured coach or quarterback since Jon Gruden and Rich Gannon, and it's often unclear who really leads the team. Maybe that will change in the post-Al Davis era, but right now, I'm not clear how this team fits together or what direction it's going.

26. Washington Redskins [6-10] — Is any team more consistently overrated in preseason than Washington? Look, I'm impressed with Robert Griffin III. He's got a lot of potential, and he's handled himself like a pro. But he's playing behind a shallow offensive line, and his top receiving target might be tight end Fred Davis, a suspension risk. Chris Nield's injury leaves the nose tackle rotation empty behind Barry Cofield, and you can't play a 3-4 defense without a nose tackle. Free agent safety Tanard Jackson got suspended for the year, and the defensive backfield remains a major concern. Even if RGIII is everything the team hopes, he's not surrounded by enough talent to be successful right now.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [7-9] — Lost their last 10 games in a row, "led" the league in turnovers, and allowed the most rushing TDs in the NFL (26) by more than a third (19). What happened to Josh Freeman last year? After a breakout performance in 2010 and a pretty bad season in 2011, the Bucs are determind to find out. They added Pro Bowl WR Vincent Jackson, Pro Bowl offensive lineman Carl Nicks, Pro Bowl TE Dallas Clark, and rookie RB Doug Martin, and if Freeman can't succeed with those tools at his disposal, we have to write off 2010 as a fluke. Tampa plays a tough schedule, so even though the team should be better, I'm thinking 7-9 better, not 12-4 better.

28. Cleveland Browns [6-10] — Moving in the right direction, but they play in a tough division, and the lack of aerial game figures to hold them back. Even if Brandon Weeden is ready to be an NFL starter, how's he going to prove it throwing to Greg Little and Mohamed Massaquoi? The Browns should be better than last season, but there are still a number of holes to patch.

29. St. Louis Rams [6-10] — Had a nice draft, courtesy of Daniel Snyder, and upgraded their defense with CB Cortland Finnegan. They have some good players scattered throughout the roster, and looking at their depth chart, I was surprised by the potential I saw, a contrast with their dismal results last season. My biggest concern remains the passing game, with a punchless WR corps and a QB who has shown nothing in the NFL. The Rams might be competitive in a weak division, but they shouldn't be a factor in January. They only have seven home games this season, with one at Wembley Stadium in London.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars [5-11] — In my friend's fantasy league, someone accidentally drafted Brandon Marshall, their rookie linebacker, rather than Brandon Marshall, the Bears WR. I bet it's the first time someone has taken a linebacker with a third-round pick. The good news is that the rest of the league was cool, and gave him the "real" Brandon Marshall. The bad news is that last season, a linebacker probably would have been better than most of Jacksonville's real-life offense. With Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson on the field, Blaine Gabbert has no more excuses. Even with Maurice Jones-Drew potentially rusty from his long holdout, this needs to look like a real offense this year.

31. Indianapolis Colts [5-11] — They were 2-14 last season, so let's be clear: they won't be good this year. The uncertainty at quarterback is gone, and I like rookie tight end Coby Fleener, but he and Andrew Luck have some awfully big shoes to fill. Free agent DE Cory Redding is underrated, a nice pickup, but the transition to a 3-4 defense and the aging of star pass rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis might create some turmoil. Realistically, the Colts' season will probably be more interesting than competitive.

32. Minnesota Vikings [5-11] — I liked their draft, but this team still has a long way to go. Christian Ponder is an unproven quarterback. Adrian Peterson is returning from a major knee injury, and it's unrealistic to expect the All Day performance we're used to. The receiving corps is uninspiring. The team's best defensive players are all in their 30s. On top of everything else, they play in a stacked division. Expect a rough season.

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card: BALTIMORE def. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati def. KANSAS CITY
Divisional: NEW ENGLAND def. Cincinnati, HOUSTON def. Baltimore
Championship: NEW ENGLAND def. Houston

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card: Detroit def. PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE def. Chicago
Divisional: GREEN BAY def. Detroit, ATLANTA def. Seattle
Championship: GREEN BAY def. Atlanta

Super Bowl XLVII

Green Bay over New England

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:28 PM | Comments (4)

2012 NFL Preview

The National Football League is unique in that every year there are several surprises. Teams that finish at the bottom of the division one year somehow make it to the top the next. Favorites will disappoint and fall back to the pack. So who will be the surprises and disappointments? Let's take a look at each division and see if we can figure out where they might come from.

Let us start with last years Super Bowl champion New York Giants. It was Philadelphia that everyone was jumping on the bandwagon with last year with their free agent acquisitions. The Eagles disappointed everyone, while the Giants got hot at the right time and sailed through the playoffs to their second Super Bowl in five years. The Giants return most everyone from last year's team. Brandon Jacobs in now in San Francisco, but there is no reason to believe that New York will give up the top spot in the NFC East.

The Washington Redskins drafted Robert Griffin III to be their franchise quarterback. In a division that will be competitive once again, Washington should be much improved, but not yet a playoff team.

The Dallas Cowboys continue to hang their hopes on much-maligned QB Tony Romo. He has yet to deliver, but he still has the confidence of ownership and the coaching staff. Finally, the Philadelphia Eagles should contend for a wild card berth or possibly the division if the Giants fall.

The NFC South should be interesting this year. Atlanta will be solid again with an offense that can put up points with QB Matt Ryan and weapons like Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Julio Jones. The Falcons' defense is also good enough to go far in the playoffs. This might be the year they finally break through.

The New Orleans Saints are probably the most intriguing team this season. With all of the Bounty-gate and the Drew Brees contract situation, how will they respond to the adversity without their coach Jay Payton, suspended for a year? Let us not forget, the Super Bowl is in New Orleans.

The Carolina Panthers took a big step forward last year with rookie QB Cam Newton. Carolina could make a run at a wild card if Newton continues to get better and the defense improves. Tampa Bay is looking like the weak team in the division this season with questions at quarterback and a new head coach in Greg Schiano.

There is no reason to believe the Green Bay Packers will slow down this season. Behind QB Aaron Rodgers, the Packers should compete for another shot at the Super Bowl. The Detroit Lions made a big leap last year by making the playoffs for the first time in what seems like since Vince Lombardi retired.

QB Matthew Stafford established himself as a top QB in the league, while throwing to arguably the best WR in the NFL in Calvin Johnson. Detroit could replace Green Bay if the Packers somehow get derailed.

Finally, the Chicago Bears will have a difficult time getting past both Green Bay and Detroit. Their hopes will lean on RB Matt Forte and an opportunistic defense. Minnesota will have a tough year unless RB Adrian Peterson can regain the form he showed us two years ago.

The NFC West saw a new member at the top last year with San Francisco posting a 13-3 record with a stingy defense and efficient QB Alex Smith. Can Jim Harbaugh get another good year out of Smith? Vernon Davis emerged last year as one of the best tight ends in the NFL.

The Seattle Seahawks drafted a rookie quarterback in the third round and is making his first NFL start in week one. Jon Gruden said if Russell Wilson had the opportunity to win a starting job wherever he was drafted, he would win the starting job. Wilson was impressive in the preseason and looks to have all the intangibles to be a good quarterback in this league.

The Seahawks' defense is now one of the best defenses in the league. Top-10 a year ago, many feel top-five this year. The Arizona Cardinals are a mess at QB. John Skelton will get the start in Week 1 against Seattle. The Cardinals do have ever-dangerous Larry Fitzgerald that can takeover a game. The St. Louis Rams will hope that QB Sam Bradford can emerge as a great quarterback like they thought he would.

Elsewhere, the New England Patriots are the class of the AFC East and will have Tom Brady once again at the helm throwing to Wes Welder, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez. If the defense improves from last year, the Patriots might get to the Super Bowl. The New York Jets have distractions everywhere with the addition of Tim Tebow and the ongoing criticism of QB Mark Sanchez. Sanchez has yet to deliver for the Jets and Tebow led the Broncos to a playoff win over Pittsburgh last season. And now Sanchez is in the news again on a date with TV star Eva Longoria.

Buffalo, meanwhile, let go of Vince Young and brought in Tarvaris Jackson from Seattle. Bills fans might as well bundle up and watch curling this winter. Miami will start Matt Moore at quarterback and will spend the winter remembering the days of Dan Marino and the Marks Brothers.

The AFC South saw the Houston Texans finally get through with the Colts opening the door due to the injury to Peyton Manning. Houston looks to be the best of the division again this year with QB Matt Schaub and RB Arian Foster leading the attack. Tennessee will hang their hopes on second-year QB Jake Locker, who beat out Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job. RB Chris Johnson should have a big year this year. Look for Tennessee to hang around for a potential wild card.

Indianapolis has a rookie at quarterback in first overall pick Andrew Luck. Without the weapons on offense, Luck will find it difficult to put up big numbers and the Colts will find it hard to get many wins. The Jacksonville Jaguars get Maurice Jones-Drew back from his holdout, but have too many questions and not enough answers.

The AFC Central might be the best division in football. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati all made the playoffs last year and will compete to do the same this year. Cincinnati might be primed to make the jump to division leader if QB Andy Dalton in his second year improves on his great rookie season. With A.J. Green to throw to and newly-acquired Benjarvis Green-Ellis running the ball, it could be a magical season in Cincinnati.

The Baltimore Ravens will be strong again this year as long as they stay with what gives them the best chance by running the ball and dumping off to Ray Rice and a ball hawking defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers will feel the heat this season with Baltimore and Cincinnati surging to the top. Look for the Steelers to miss the playoffs this season. Cleveland Browns are just to overmatched to compete in this division and will be shuffling quarterbacks all season.

The Denver Broncos brought in Peyton Manning to get them to the Super Bowl. It will take more than a good year from Manning to get them there. The San Diego Chargers still have QB Phillip Rivers. San Diego has a chance to win this division if they can stay healthy and Rivers has a great year. Oakland and Kansas City will take a step backwards this year in a weak division.

My predictions for 2012 is that the Broncos, Bengals, Patriots, and Texans all win their divisions, while the Ravens and Chargers get a wild card berth. In the NFC, I like the Giants, Packers, Falcons, and Seahawks to win their divisions with the Lions and Panthers getting the wild card. The Falcons and Texans meet in the Super Bowl, with the Falcons winning a shootout.

Posted by Greg Suttich at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)

September 3, 2012

Despite Win, Fighting Irish Still Lost

Last week saw a particularly silly controversy (by college football standards) when former Irish great running back and current radio announcer Allen Pinkett said that what teams really needed to be successful was "a couple of criminals." He postulated those criminal types gave the team an edge that intimidated opponents and that a team "full of choirboys" wouldn't win many games.

Pretty much everybody acknowledged the stupidity of Pinkett's comments, and he was not allowed to broadcast Notre Dame's 50-10 laugher over Navy in Dublin, Ireland on Saturday. But what made these comments resonate more than they might have was the fact they came from a Notre Dame guy talking about Notre Dame. And when the Notre Dame name gets involved, people tend to go a little over the top.

For those who might not remember it, Notre Dame used to mean something. It was a higher state of intercollegiate being. They didn't just win — they did it the right way. High academic standards, national recruiting reach, only the best of the best. Rudy.

But it's been a while since those Irish glory years. The last bastion of Notre Dame greatness came under Lou Holtz in the early 1990s. The 1993 team finished 11-1 with a two-point home loss to Boston College costing them a shot at the national championship. (Great game if you can ever catch it on ESPN Classic, by the way.)

Since that 1993 season, the Irish have managed double-digits just twice, once in Tyrone Willingham's first season, the other in Charlie Weiss' second.

Not only have the wins not been there, but the top players haven't either. Prior to Michael Floyd and Harrison Smith going in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft, the previous Irish first-rounder was Brady Quinn, he of the dramatic fall in the 2007 draft. The Irish haven't had an offensive lineman drafted in the first round since center Jeff Faine in 2003, and the last player to come out of Notre Dame to make a Pro Bowl was Justin Tuck, taken in the third round by the New York Giants in 2005.

So if Notre Dame isn't exactly knocking on Alabama's door competitively, why is it that everything Irish still registers an 8 or 9 on the Tebow Scale of Unwarranted Media Coverage?

Is it the "tradition?" During the Navy game, CBS analyst Gary Danielson said people who questioned Notre Dame's relevance just didn't understand college football and the tradition involved. But are Knute Rockne and the Four Horsemen really what's going to drive recruits to South Bend?

Note to aging former players-turned-broadcasters — we don't exactly live in the tradition age any more.

Look at Oregon. Once nothing more than the place where that guy with the mustache used to run (Steve Prefontaine for the uninitiated), Oregon has largely risen to prominence thanks to its Nike-funded cool factor. Notre Dame may have tradition, but Oregon is unveiling a new uniform every third week, and the recruits want to be a part of it.

Besides, lots of places have tradition. Alabama has Bear Bryant. Michigan has Bo Schembechler. Ohio State has Woody Hayes.

But those schools don't have to just sell tradition. They have more — the promise of national competitive relevance, which is really where the money is at in the program marketing contest that is recruiting.

You used to win? That's great. I want to win now. And that's where Notre Dame falls short.

Mind you, I'm not saying Notre Dame can't compete on the level of Alabama. I'm saying they will have a much harder time doing it because they're still trying to live by a media-fueled self-image that just doesn't exist anymore. Regardless of what Danielson thinks, the world has changed in the last 20 years, and college sports have changed with them. Notre Dame may still be living off their TV money as a football independent, but the lack of place in a conference-dominated environment has put an artificially low ceiling on their potential achievement.

In the marketing game, it's not good enough to just have a good product; Your product has to be better by comparison to your main competitors. As a national program devoid of conference, Notre Dame's marketing context will always be the top of the national football food chain. One year, that could be Alabama and LSU. The next Texas or Oklahoma. Florida State, USC, Oregon — it doesn't matter who's up or who's down. Notre Dame is getting compared to the best.

Nobody can succeed in that environment. In the absence of a conference with which to form their schedule, Notre Dame is forced to overload with top teams from other conferences. This year, they have Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, USC, and Oklahoma. Even games against BYU and Purdue could trip up Kelly's bunch.

In order to truly restore Notre Dame to a competitive level befitting their place in media, they have to take an honest look at themselves. Joining a conference won't make Notre Dame any less special. South Bend will always be hallowed ground, and Touchdown Jesus will always be one of the greatest monuments to college football.

But the Irish-against-the-world construction doesn't work anymore. The world changes, and those who fail to adapt get left behind. The Catholic church is having a hard time learning that lesson, and so is its flag-bearer in the world of American collegiate athletics. Whether they can evolve from there is a question they'll have to answer for themselves.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 9:43 PM | Comments (6)

Blowin' it Up in Beantown

The Boston Red Sox opened the 2012 season with high hopes and plans of playing in October. So what happened? The season started out on a bad note with injuries to key players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia. Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and David Ortiz also suffered injuries early. A slow start to the season got everyone pointing fingers.

Bobby Valentine, first-year manager of the Red Sox, brought in his old-school style of managing, which did not sit well with many of Red Sox players. Valentine, never known for holding back his thoughts, expressed publicly how he thought Kevin Youkilis needed to work a little harder. This public announcement by Valentine caused irreversible damage in the relationship between he and Youkalis and some of the other players on the Red Sox squad. Now I do not know what goes on inside the clubhouse, but I would speculate to say that there were many words on a daily basis between Bobby Valentine and some of the Red Sox players that probably should not be mentioned in this article to keep it somewhat PG-rated.

The lingering effects of the injuries and the dissension in the Red Sox clubhouse has kept Boston at or near the bottom of the American League East all season. Even this reporter thought they would turn it around with all the talent on the roster. In an earlier article, I predicted they would be one of the two wild card teams. Okay, if all of my predictions would come true, then I would be selling my picks on Saturday and Sunday mornings, yelling through the TV screen to degenerate gamblers all over the country.

The Red Sox were able to deal Youkilis to the White Sox with the emergence of third baseman Will Middlebrooks. However, Youkilis was a huge fan favorite. Now the White Sox fans are screaming "Yoooooook!" every time he steps to the plate or gets a hit. At least there is no more drama between Valentine and Youkalis. But there is still plenty of drama in Beantown.

Boston was not done, as they recently unloaded over $260 million dollars in salary. A trade sending their longtime ace Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto to the Los Angeles Dodgers for some minor league prospects turned heads. So what's next? Will Valentine be brought back next season? Depending upon who might be available, the Red Sox might be inclined to go in a different direction with a new manager next season. After all, Boston cannot afford to start out next season with drama, which seems to follow Valentine everywhere he goes.

Boston will have plenty of money to shop around for some big names in the off season. In order to keep up with their rival Yankees, the Red Sox will need to make a splash in the free agent market this off-season. Pitching, mainly starting pitching will be a huge priority. A couple of big bats will also be coveted to complement Ellsbury and Pedroia.

Red Sox fans still have some hope for the 2012 season. If you look at what has been happening lately in the standings, the New York Yankees have been sliding. The surprising Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are right on the heels of New York. The Yankees are suffering some of what has plagued the Red Sox with a bunch of injuries to key players. So for Boston fans, the opportunity to see the Yankees fade and miss the playoffs gives them some joy and satisfaction during the month of September. After all, misery loves company!

Posted by Greg Suttich at 1:40 PM | Comments (0)