With only one week left in the NFL preseason schedule, many fans are either hoping that their team's success will carry over into the regular season, while others are hoping their team's poor showing is just the preseason kinks being worked out. However, a look at teams in recent years that either blew through or tanked the preseason shows that it's really a crap-shoot in determining if a team will be good or bad when the games start to count.
Since 2006, the season farthest back where records are available, 13 teams have won four games in the preseason, or went undefeated with a tie (Dallas went 3-0-1 in 2006). Out of those 13 teams, only five of them made the playoffs that same season. On the flip side, six of them finished the regular season with a losing record while two others ended at 8-8. This includes the 2008 Detroit Lions, who went 4-0 in the preseason and then 0-16 in the regular season.
Conversely, 15 teams have lost four preseason games, and all but three of them did not qualify for the playoffs that same year. In fact, none of those three even made it as far as their conference championship game. And of the dozen teams that didn't make the playoffs, half of them managed an 8-8 record or better. A couple of notable examples were New England and Indianapolis, who went 0-4 and 1-4 respectively in the preseason and then went 11-5 and 12-4 respectively in the regular season but missed the playoffs.
So for fans of Philadelphia and Seattle (this includes myself) who think the Super Bowl is the final stop this year just because they're 3-0 right now, I wouldn't be booking my flight to New York just yet. Even though a few teams that finished undefeated in the preseason went to the playoffs, none of them made it to the Super Bowl either. But fans of 0-3 Miami and Buffalo (and possibly the Jets, depending on what happens in tonight's game) shouldn't despair based on the fact that there have been a few instances recently of teams tanking the preseason and then making the postseason. But I'd avoid the plane ticket investment, too.
However, if you're planning on taking that trip to Vegas to put some money on the Super Bowl odds, you'll have a better chance of winning if you don't pick Philly, Seattle, Miami or Buffalo, based on history — and most betting propositions are based on history. And if history truly does repeat itself, then my money is on none of those teams taking home the Lombardi Trophy in February. That leaves 28 other teams to pick from. Good luck!
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