Coming into this week, the Washington Nationals had the best record in baseball, at some 30 games over .500. According to the widely-cited measure by CoolStandings.com, the former Expos are the likeliest team to make the playoffs with a 99.5 percent probability.
When the Nationals pick up their 82nd win of the season, it will clinch the franchise's first winning season in nearly a decade, when the team was barely over .500 in 2003 with an 83-79 record. The franchise has never won more than 94 games in a full season, and is currently on pace to win just over 100.
The Nationals' 2012 rise is somewhat analogous to that of the Pirates' this season, although it has been nearly a full generation since Pittsburgh has had a winning season. The team from Steel City also still has a fight on its hands before it can return to the playoffs for the first time since Barry Bonds and Andy Van Slyke patrolled the outfield.
However, should the Buccos get there, they will have their franchise player, possible NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, available for any playoff games, barring injury. When Washington clinches its playoff spot, ace and 23-year-old phenom Stephen Strasburg will spend the duration of October spitting sunflower seeds and chewing bubble gum in the dugout due to a set innings limit set by club management, of which the exact number is still unknown but is not thought to be more than 180.
Strasburg has currently pitched 145 and 1/3 innings. Depending on the exact number, Strasburg will only have a few more outings in his 2012 season. On Wednesday, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo made it official that Strasburg will be benched in the coming weeks.
The rationale for the limit is understandable. Strasburg is unquestionably the team's franchise player, underwent Tommy John surgery less than two years ago and has never pitched a full season in his short career. He is already one of the game's best pitchers, and the club doesn't want to jeopardize the righty's future health and productivity. Furthermore, there seems to be a consensus among those who follow and work in baseball that the move is the right one.
Still, the team should take the gamble on Strasburg and pitch him for the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs.
For one, the Nationals' dream season, while expected to be a division-winning one by many, has surpassed all expectations. While Washington has one of the youngest teams in the National League, and should be a contender for many years to come, there's no guarantee that the team can put up such a gaudy record again. In baseball, there are only so many chances teams get to win the World Series. By not pitching Strasburg in the postseason, the Nationals are hindering a prime opportunity to win now.
There is a recent precedent for the decision in the club's history. Fellow Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009 and then followed a progression in his return in 2010 and 2011 that nearly mirrors Strasburg's 2011 and 2012. Last year, Zimmermann had was limited to 160 innings and pitched marginally more than that number. It worked out since Zimmermann is now a star with an ERA and a WAR each better than Strasburg's in 2012. But there wasn't nearly as much on the line in the Nationals' below .500 season in 2011 as there is now.
I don't claim to be a doctor or know about the complex biomechanics of throwing a ball 100 miles per hour with a surgically repaired elbow, but I know that when Tommy John first had the surgery that he would become best known for, he pitched 207 innings in the season he returned. Technology is much better than it was in 1974, and doctors can still sit Strasburg at the first hit of any aggravation. It's also clear through the stellar performances Strasburg has shown this season that he is not the type of pitcher who comes back worse after having the surgery.
There are a couple of overlooked aspects of Strasburg's benching. One is that, given that the innings limit has been known all season, the Nationals management should have looked at more options to keep Strasburg at what they deemed to be a reasonable workload. While he's never been allowed to pitch more than seven innings in any one start, the team could have tried to skip starts, use a six-man rotation or even work Strasburg out of the bullpen to save innings. According to a Washington Post story, none of those options were seriously considered because Rizzo wanted Strasburg to have the repetition of throwing every five days during an MLB season.
Another part of the shutdown is the fact that Washington's playoff rotation with Strasburg had the potential to absolutely filthy. With Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez all pitching at an ace level, and Edwin Jackson bringing playoff experience from his time with St. Louis last year, it would have been a tough task to take down the Nationals in a five- or seven-game series. Now, the team's lineup, which has performed well but is still around the league average in many key statistical categories, will have to shoulder the load more in October.
Zimmermann, Gonzalez, a strong bullpen and a deep order give the Nationals a strong chance to win in October, even without Strasburg. But with him, Washington would have likely been the favorite to win the World Series. And that's a chance worth taking.
Leave a Comment