With the MLB season approaching its final third, it's time to predict what will occur between now and the beginning of the postseason.
American League East
New York Yankees (99-63)
Even with Alex Rodriguez injured and Mark Teixeira's potential wrist issue, this team's offense is built to dominate the regular season. Add to the mix that their starting pitching is one of the more formidable rotations in the American League (CC Sabathia/Hiroki Kuroda/Ivan Nova) in a short series is no walk in the park), and I see the Yanks pulling into the postseason as the top team in the AL East.
What could go wrong?
Injuries. If Sabathia and Teixeira cannot recover, then Alex Rodriguez's absence will be more of an issue. If they heal, problems solved.
American League Central
Detroit Tigers (94-68)
Prince Fielder has lived up to expectations. Austin Jackson has arrived. Miguel Cabrera is Miguel Cabrera. This team's offense is coming around and I feel like it's only a matter of time before the Chicago White Sox bend a little bit. Justin Verlander hasn't been himself all season — which is saying something because he's the all-star starter. This just goes to show how great he is. Once he gets hot again, it will be contagious and the rest of the staff will follow suit. The Tigers will win a close one.
What could go wrong?
Starting pitching. My confidence in Verlander is unwavering; however, my prediction that his success will beget success for those around him comes with its reservations. Will Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Doug Fister truly step up their game to another level? I think so. But I'm not sure.
American League West
Texas Rangers (94-68)
I might be selling Texas short on the win total here, but I'm still confident they will win the division yet again. Their offense is too good to bet against; however, I see some holes in their makeup. First, let's focus on the good: they're going to score enough runs to protect even mediocre pitching performances (case in point: Ryan Dempster's first outing with the club). Secondly, their bullpen is strong enough to hold the leads they jump out to. Finally, their manager is a calculating man who knows how to hold onto a division lead — and has proved it for a few years now.
What could go wrong?
The Angels. Of all the teams that improved at the All-Star Break, the Angels were just behind the Dodgers in terms of the splash they made. They are 6 games behind Texas as of August 6th, and larger leads have been lost. Their rear-view mirror is the only thing that can dethrone the Rangers.
American League Wild Cards
Anaheim (I refuse to call them Los Angeles because Anaheim is more than an hour outside of L.A.) Angels (92-70) and Chicago White Sox (89-73)
The Angels will continue to improve and with Zach Greinke will come as close to winning the division as a team with its dismal April can come. The White Sox, on the other hand, will fold down the stretch. They are simply not as good as the Tigers and I do not see Chris Sale (with his health) and Francisco Liriano (with his Jekyll and Hyde past) being the driving forces behind a division winner. Having said that, these two teams will get to play a single-game playoff in order to make it into the official postseason.
Result of the one-game playoff?
Zach Greinke or Jared Weaver (how many teams have a choice like that?) will throw a gem against the overpowered White Sox offense. Trout and Pujols will each have 2 RBI, and the Angels will face the New York Yankees in the Divisional Series after dispatching the White Sox 6-2.
National League East
Atlanta Braves (92-70)
Call this the wily veteran pick. I look at Chipper Jones as being a great leader and a driving inspirational force for this team down the stretch. The only thing that is really against the Braves right now is the health of their starting rotation; however, I feel that Jones' leadership, combined with the veteran presence of Brian McCann, Martin Prado, and Dan Uggla, will prevail over the trendy Washington Nationals — leading to one of the more difficult decisions Washington may ever have to make (more on that later).
What could go wrong?
The Nationals could jackknife and have Stephen Strasburg continue to pitch into the pennant race. Even though he pitches only once every five days, his presence is felt even on his off days. He is a stopper who could take Atlanta's momentum and crush it with his consistent outings.
National League Central
Cincinnati Reds (88-74)
This division winner will be the result of a not-so-hard fought final few weeks where the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals take turns losing to lesser-talented teams like the Cubs, Brewers, and Astros who have no pressure. The Reds will be the last ones standing due to Joey Votto and late-September callup Billy Hamilton. Hamilton will not be a Mike-Trout-esque player. Rather, he will provide just enough of a spark to inspire the hitters around him with his energy, his speed, and his hype.
What could go wrong?
The Cardinals. St. Louis proved last year that they cannot be counted out. I still think the Cardinals have the better team, but my gut tells me that Cincinnati is going to fend them off this season.
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72)
Their trade deadline was one of the best in recent memory, with the additions of Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Joe Blanton, Brandon League, and potentially Cliff Lee. If they claim Lee off of waivers, this division is theirs to lose. After watching them sweep the lowly Cubs this past weekend, I can say with confidence that this team is not going to be one of those teams that chokes down the stretch. If they have their foot on a team's throat, they'll finish the job. I like the Dodgers to pull this one out.
What could go wrong?
Victorino stays cold, Ramirez loses the spark, the bullpen falls apart. They have a lot of big "if"s on this team. The back of the bullpen isn't dominant and has the potential to lose a few late. Victorino has not been doing much flying over the past month or so and is not a guarantee to heat up. Ramirez has been known for lapses. If any or all of these occur, the Dodgers could be on the outside looking in come October.
National League Wild Cards
Washington Nationals (91-71) and San Francisco Giants (86-76)
The Nats have what it takes across the board — a formidable lineup, a talented group of pitchers, and a manager who appears to be leading them well. The only reason I chose the Braves to edge them in the division is because I truly believe that Strasburg will be shut down at 160 innings. I think this move will disorient an otherwise unified team and cause them to let down slightly, though not enough to crush their hopes. The Giants, on the other hand, have too strong of a pitching staff to fall off completely. They will be breathing down the necks of the Dodgers for the remainder of the season and poised to win the division with two weeks left against the Padres, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. Then, out of nowhere, these teams without any postseason hopes will turn up the heat and the Giants will be caught in a funk.
Result of the one-game playoff?
Remember when I said the Nationals will be left to make one of the biggest, most difficult decisions all season? They will have a rested Stephen Strasburg and a do-or-die situation against Matt Cain. I think the Nats stick to their guns and start either Jordan Zimmerman or Gio Gonzalez and lose a pitcher's duel to Cain's Giants, 3-1.
Obviously, predictions are meant to be proven wrong — and I tried to make some bold ones for the sake of speculation, fun, and a legitimate belief in the strangeness of September baseball. Let's hope that the season is, if nothing else, entertaining down the stretch.
Most importantly, let's hope we don't somehow have to watch the Yankees/Red Sox in the ALCS.
August 7, 2012
Andrew Jones:
Do you realize you have the Reds going 22-31 down the stretch? I’m not saying they won’t win the division, but I think they’ll manage to go above .500 in their last 53 games.